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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -135 | 96 h 52 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week The Browns lost to the Chargers on Sunday, even though they scored more than 40 points and didn’t turn the ball over a single time, there had been 401 instances in the Super Bowl era where a team had accomplished both of those feats, and those teams combined to go 401-0. However, the Browns ended that improbable 401-game winning streak that had gone on for more than 50 years. Consider that 6-0 NFL teams in Game Seven are 1-9 SUATS when facing an opponent coming off a SUATS loss, including 0-7 ATS if not favored by 12 or more points. |
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10-17-21 | Rams v. Giants UNDER 48 | 38-11 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units All non-division teams off a road loss of 14 > pts and a road dog WIN (Giants), when the OU line is 41 > pts is 2-12 O/U since 2011. New York comes in with a 1-4 SU record on the year. All NFC home teams with a .200 or worse winning pct (Giants), when the OU line is 38 > pts is 4-17 O/U last 4 years. |
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10-17-21 | Chargers v. Ravens OVER 51.5 | 6-34 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units NFL home favorites < 7 pts off a MONDAY home game (RAVENS) is 16-3-1 O/U since 2012 . In the last 3 years, this situation has gone a PERFECT 6-0 O/U (60.3 combined ppg). All game 3 > WEST time zone road DOGS of > 1 pt (CHARGERS) vs a EAST Time Zone opponent (RAVENS), when the OU line is 46 > pts is 21-5-1 O/U since 2014. The CLINCHER: The Ravens have gone 9-1 O/U at home vs all AFC WEST Division opponents in L10 years w/ an OU line of < 55 pts. |
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10-17-21 | Packers v. Bears +4.5 | 24-14 | Loss | -107 | 93 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Bears’ defense showed their toughness and talent while leading the team to a road win in Las Vegas, their second victory in as many weeks. QB Justin Fields was just 12-of-20 for 111 yards and a touchdown, but he played mistake-free football, and came up with some clutch plays to support the great effort by his defense. With it, Chicago is 3-2 and is suddenly positioned to make the playoffs for the second year in a row. The Bears are 9-3 ATS as a home dog of more than 3 points. Consider that the Bears are 7-1 SUATS when coming off two win under head coach Matt Nagy. |
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10-16-21 | Arizona State v. Utah | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -105 | 78 h 3 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NCAAF Mismatch of the Week It was a big “W” for the Utes last week in a double revenge matchup with USC, with a solid performance from new QB Cam Rising, but Utah is dragged down in this tilt with a 4-9 SUATS mark in games when coming off upset wins. Meanwhile, Arizona State is an ITS (In The Stats) darling this year, winning the yards in all six games while averaging +141 YPG. As a result, they are dominating the stat rankings this season, including No. 2 on the defensive side of the ball. With it, the overall yardage winner is 2-22 SU in the last 24 Utes games. ASU lost 21-3 at Utah in their most recent meeting in 2019, Herm Edwards’ worst loss with Arizona State since taking over the program four seasons ago. The Clincher: The Sun Devils are 14-4 ATS with revenge against an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 10-0 ATS against foes who allow 23 or more points per game. |
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10-16-21 | Blues v. Avalanche -145 | 5-3 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Aves were 9-3 against the Blues last season including 5-1 at home. The Aves also swept the Blues in the first round of the playoffs last season. Nathan Mackinnon is still out but this team has plenty of weapons and they are one of the most dominant teams at home. Take the Aves. |
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10-16-21 | Dodgers v. Braves +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Max Fried will start for the Braves in Game 1 after Charlie Morton pitched on short rest on Tuesday. He has been on a dominant run and he already pitched two quality starts against the Dodgers earlier this season. The Dodgers struggled against lefties this season as most of their righties actually hit right-handed pitchers better and they should have Albert Pujols at first base and AJ Pollock in the outfield instead of Gavin Lux and Cody Bellinger. In the NLCS last season, Fried faced the Dodgers twice pitching a quality start in each outing. Max Scherzer is expected to start for the Dodgers. He pitched an inning against the Giants Thursday but that was his bullpen day. The adrenaline is a little bit different for a winner take all save though, so I would expect a little bit of an energy loss. Take the Braves at home. |
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10-16-21 | Dodgers v. Braves UNDER 8 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Neither of these teams exactly lit up the scoreboard in their last series but that is also in part because both have very good pitching staffs. Neither team has multiple guys going well right now either, and both teams will have a day off to reset their bullpens so I like the under. |
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10-16-21 | Hurricanes -107 v. Predators | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a great line on one of the most complete teams in hockey. Carolina's season point total is 95.5 while Nashville's was set at 84.5 before the season. These teams played a preseason game on Oct. 9. Nashville won by one goal, despite getting outshot 37-17. Carolina is 17-5-0-1 in its past 23 regular season meetings against Nashville. Take the Hurricanes. |
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10-16-21 | Ole Miss v. Tennessee +2.5 | 31-26 | Loss | -102 | 76 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Matt Corral is a legitimate talent, accounting for four more touchdowns against the Hogs in Saturday’s 52-51 shootout, but you know we’re not keen on laying points in conference games with bad defenses, and we won’t begin here. Toss in the Rebels’ abysmal series record of 2-13 SU in the last 15 games, plus their 1-5 ATS record overall as road favorites, and you can see why we’re headed for the betting window. Also playing against any college football road favorite off a win who allows more than 30 points per game and more than 4 yards per rush if they surrendered 60-plus points combined in its last two games before Game Seven of the season, are 3-20-1 ATS. |
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10-16-21 | Iowa State v. Kansas State +6.5 | 33-20 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Teams coming in 3-2 and win in Game Six the prospects of donning bowling shirts improves considerably. Lose and they can begin entertaining visions of staying home for the holidays. Thus, these become pivotal games. These Game Six teams are at their best playing with the added benefit of a week of rest, going 12-7 SU and 15-4 ATS. That should be music to the ears for Kansas State. In addition, put them at home and they respond with aplomb, going 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS. It’s where the Wildcats anticipate benefiting from home-cooking this week. And by matching them up against .600 or fewer opponents, their chances of winning improves dramatically as the teams have gone 7-0 SUATS in this role. That applies to Chris Klieman’s Kansas Sate crew. |
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10-16-21 | Lightning v. Capitals +114 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These teams didn’t play each other last season but the Caps were 3-1 including 2-0 at home against the Lightning in 2020. The Lightning were lucky to sneak out with a win against the Red Wings and played a dud to open the season at home. They don’t seem too motivated right now while the Caps opened up with a good win at home. Take the Caps at home at plus money. |
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10-16-21 | Islanders v. Panthers -130 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Panthers and Islanders didn’t face each other last season, but the Panthers were 20-5-3 at home while the Islanders were 11-13-4 on the road. The Panthers opened their season with an OT win over the Penguins while the Islanders lost their first game in Carolina. The Panthers should be one of the best teams in the East this season and the Islanders have goalie questions. Take the Panthers at home. |
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10-16-21 | Red Sox +105 v. Astros | 9-5 | Win | 105 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nathan Eovaldi is just one of those guys that turns it on when the playoffs come around. He now has a career 1.93 ERA in 8 postseason appearances, and he pitched in Houston twice in 2018 in the ALCS and pitched two quality starts. Nick Pivetta has been dealing and he should be able to piggyback Eovaldi. Luis Garcia was hit hard by the White Sox in his 2nd career postseason start and he has yet to pitch more than 2.2 innings in his two starts. The Astros don’t really have anyone to bridge that gap to the back end of their bullpen now after losing pitching depth with Lance McCullers Jr. injury. |
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10-16-21 | Purdue +12 v. Iowa | Top | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 71 h 29 m | Show |
Rating 4 Unit Big-10 Play of the Day Purdue is one of only 10 teams in the nation that have out yarded every opponent they’ve faced this season, and besides a 5-1 spread record on the road versus conference revenge (plus 5-2 ATS with rest), they have covered 3 of the last four meetings in this series. Jeff Brohm is also 20-9 ATS as a dog, including 8-0 ATS when coming off a loss, so get out your crayons and color them dangerous. As for the sky-high Hawkeyes, they are 1-4 ATS at home with Big Ten revenge (lost to Purdue 24-20 in last season’s lid-lifter). While they knocked QB Clifford out of the PSU game last week, we’re banking they won’t do the same to the Boilermakers’ starting signal caller this week. The Clincher: Ferentz is 2-7-1 ATS as a favorite in conference games after defeating an undefeated foe, including 0-4-1 ATS at home, as well as 0-4-1 ATS versus winning opponents. |
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10-16-21 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia Tech +5 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit ACC Game of the Week Playing on (Virginia Tech) any college football mission team (missed bowl game last year after having been a bowler the previous three seasons) if they are a home dog with revenge who allows fewer than 19.5 PPG if they are facing a foe that did not lose its last game by more than 3 points provided the foe rushes the ball for less than 288 YPG on the season is a perfect 18-0 ATS since 1990. |
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10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros -133 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We have a battle of southpaws in Game 1 in Houston between Chris Sale and Framber Valdez. Valdez was actually hit hard in the playoffs for the first time in his career against the White Sox, but the White Sox are one of the best lefty hitting teams in the league. Chris Sale has actually been very bad in his career in the playoffs, including his only start this postseason where he allowed 5 ER in the first inning before being removed. The Astros were ranked 4th in the league in wOBA against lefties this season but the Red Sox weren’t too far behind at 8th. I am guessing the Red Sox will go with Tanner Houck or Nick Pivetta out of the bullpen to piggyback Sale if they are up, but I think the Astros will take an early lead and hopefully keep either of those guys from coming in the game. |
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10-15-21 | Canucks v. Flyers -140 | 5-4 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This will be the Flyers season and home opener while the Canucks lost in a shootout in their first game. One of the Canucks best players in Brock Boeser should still be out of the lineup, and the Canucks seriously struggled on the road last season at 10-17-1. The Flyers started well last season but crashed to the finish and missed the playoffs. I expect a reenergized Flyers group tonight to feed off their home crowd. The Canucks are coming from Edmonton so that is quite the road trip to start the season. Take the Flyers at home. |
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10-15-21 | Blackhawks v. Devils -125 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I was going to pass on this one but then came word the Hawks were starting backup netminder Kevin Lankinen instead of Marc-Andre Fleury, who will start Saturday. That Chicago defense remains incredibly weak even with some offseason additions and Lankinen is a huge downgrade from the Flower. It's Jonathan Bernier for New Jersey, and he was quite respectable on a very bad Detroit team last year. The Devils, in their season opener, should be better this year with offseason additions Dougie Hamilton and Ryan Graves on the blueline. There's plenty of young forward talent there too. Chicago is 6-21 its past 27 games as a road underdog. |
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10-15-21 | Clemson v. Syracuse +13.5 | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When these same two teams met last season, Clemson was gaining 531 YPG and allowing 264 YPG, while Syracuse was averaging 264 yards of offense and giving up 486 yards per game. That was a net of +491 YPG in the Tigers favor. This year, it’s a net edge of +98 YPG in favor of the Orange. Clemson has also burned piles of money in 2021, going 0-5 ATS versus all opponents, while Syracuse checks in with a 4-1 ATS success. Things don’t look much better for Dabo and company as Clemson is 1-4 ATS as road chalk of 14 or less points, and 1-3 ATS off a SU win / ATS loss. By comparison, the ‘Cuse has cashed a ticket in three of the last four series meetings, and head coach Dino Babers stands 10-5 ATS as a dog the past two seasons. |
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10-14-21 | Dodgers v. Giants -104 | 2-1 | Loss | -104 | 34 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Logan Webb tossed a gem in Game 1 in his first career postseason start and I don’t see much changing the second time around. Julio Urias also pitched well in his start in Game 2, and he has been very good in playoff elimination games in his career. The Dodgers have a couple key players not hitting right now, mainly Justin Turner in the middle of their lineup, and the Giants have been a very good team at home all season. The Giants feel like a team of destiny while it seems like the Dodgers have been working their hardest to stay alive. The Giants barely edged the Dodgers in the season series and in the division race, I like the Giants to edge them out one more time. |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles +7 | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bills, Browns and Rams rank 1-2-3 in net yards per play. Guess who's fourth? The Eagles. Philly hosts a Buccaneers team that's failed to cover six straight primetime games and will be without stud linebacker Lavonte David. Tom Brady has a sore right thumb but says it won't affect his play. Consider that the Eagles have gone 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in Thursday performances while Tampa Bay has coughed up the bucks on Thursdays going just 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS. |
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10-14-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Predators -119 | 4-3 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I believe Nashville will be quite a bit better this year even with Pekka Rinne's retirement -- Juuse Saros had replaced him as the No. 1 in net regardless. There's also no better home-ice advantage with those crazy fans in the home city of SportsLine. Seattle played well Tuesday after falling down 3-0 in losing in Vegas 4-3 but also lost top-six forward Marcus Johansson indefinitely with a lower-body injury. The Kraken are thin at forward as it is. They probably will be competitive most nights on the road but lose. |
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10-14-21 | Penguins v. Panthers -175 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pittsburgh burned me and pretty much everyone to a crisp with its shocking win at Tampa Bay on Tuesday minus four top offensive players and defenseman Mike Matheson -- it sounds as if all those guys may sit this one out, too. I think that was much more the Lightning being totally flat off their Cup title and such a short offseason. The Panthers saw that game, no doubt, and will not be caught flat-footed. They were dominant at home last season and have top blueliner Aaron Ekblad back after he suffered a broken leg late last March. |
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10-14-21 | Islanders v. Hurricanes -125 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Frederik Anderson will be starting in net for the Canes as they had a bit of an overhaul this offseason, at least with goalies. Both these teams are much better at home and there has been a positive trend with home teams in their openers so far this season. The Canes won all three games last season including two at home, and they swept the Islanders in the playoffs in 2019, so the Canes have won 8 straight now in this series. The Canes were 20-3-5 at home last season while the Islanders were 11-13-4 on the road, and that was without fans. |
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10-14-21 | Coyotes v. Blue Jackets -158 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Arizona on paper looks like potentially the worst team in the NHL -- yes, even worse than Buffalo. Yotes forward Alex Galchenyuk is starting the season on IR, while fellow forward Phil Kessel is iffy at best for Thursday. The No. 1 netminder is Carter Hutton, who was 1-10-1 with with a 3.47 GAA last year with those Sabres (Hutton needs to get a new agent). Columbus imploded a bit last season under hard-driving coach John Tortorella and replaced him with Brad Larsen. Elvis Merzlikins gets the call in net. He was 6-3-2 at home last year with a 2.56 GAA. |
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10-13-21 | Jets -139 v. Ducks | 1-4 | Loss | -139 | 28 h 33 m | Show | |
I am seeing this line rise, so I want to get ahead of it now. The Ducks were the 2nd worst team in the league last season in front of the Sabres, and they won just 10 of their 18 games at home. The Jets were one of the better road teams last season at 17-10-1 and they have won 5 of the last 6 meetings straight up. The Jets are also healthy coming into the season while the Ducks have question marks up and down the lineup. Take the Jets |
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10-13-21 | Canucks v. Oilers -175 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Vancouver has a handful of guys out injured -- 2021 leading scorer Brock Boeser is on injured reserve and in theory could be activated ... but I doubt it. Oilers winger Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was in doubt Monday with an illness but cleared Tuesday and practiced. In 10 games last year vs. Vancouver, Edmonton's Connor McDavid, the reigning Hart Trophy winner, had 22 points and Leon Draisaitl 19. The Oilers likely can't wait to play a game that counts after their shocking first-round playoff sweep vs. Winnipeg. |
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10-13-21 | Rangers v. Capitals -113 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Caps have won 4 of the last 6 games between these teams straight up and 7 out of 9 of the games at home. Alex Ovechkin left his last preseason game early, but he was at an optional practice today for the Caps and “Russian Machine Never Breaks.” The Caps tied for the Metropolitan Division last season, but they went through their share of injuries and COVID to do it. They are finally healthy and have a reliable goaltender in Ilya Samsonov in net. The Rangers made many offseason moves to improve but I think it’ll take a few games of playing together with a new head coach to put it together. Take the Caps at home on opening night. |
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10-12-21 | Seattle Kraken +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 34 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Look, I don't know if the Kraken will be any good in their expansion season. Will they reach the Stanley Cup Final like Vegas did in its expansion season? I think it's fair to say no. There doesn't appear to be a ton of offense on the Seattle roster, but the team has a very deep defensive group led by former Norris Trophy winner Mark Giordano. The Kraken are also stacked in net, led by Philipp Grubauer. Still shocked the Avalanche let him get away. Grubauer was No. 2 in the league last year in GAA at 1.95. I'll be hammering Seattle Unders a lot this season, and I'd lean the Under 5.5 goals here as well but will take the Kraken on the puckline because they are going to treat their debut like a playoff game. Vegas also dealt away its No. 1 netminder in Marc-Andre Fleury and while new No. 1 Robin Lehner is pretty good, he's not the Flower. Lehner also reportedly is dealing with an injury (still expected to play) and didn't look great in the preseason. |
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10-12-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -153 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tony Gonsolin will be pitching for the Dodgers playoff lives against Anthony Desclafani after the Dodgers were shut out for the second time in three matchups in this series. Anthony Desclafani will be making his playoff debut and he did not pitch well against the Dodgers this season, although he has been pitching well lately. Tony Gonsolin will be making his fourth career playoff start and he hasn’t pitched very well at all in the playoffs, but he should be on a very short leash. Gonsolin has been better at home and last night was the first game the Dodgers lost at home since the beginning of September. Expect an offensive explosion from the Dodgers tonight, this series was destined to go 5. |
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10-12-21 | Penguins v. Lightning -180 | 6-2 | Loss | -180 | 31 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sidney Crosby had surgery in September and just recently returned to practice. His timetable to return to games is not yet known. The back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Lightning will be raising their banner after not having a full stadium of fans in 2 years. The Penguins have lost 7 of their last 9 games straight up against the Lightning and they haven’t won in Tampa Bay since 2017. Take the Lightning at home. |
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10-12-21 | Brewers +138 v. Braves | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers bats have put up 2 runs total in this series with both runs coming in Game 1. However, today they face Huascar Ynoa who has been struggling in September. He pitched well in 1 career playoff start but he did walk 4 batters. The Brewers also touched up Ynoa for 5 ER in 4.1 IP in his only matchup against them. Eric Lauer allowed 3 ER in 3 IP to the Braves in his only matchup against them but that was a different Braves lineup in May and Lauer didn’t start that game. This will be Lauer’s first career playoff start but he allowed 1 run or less while pitching 5 innings in 5 of his last 6 starts. Both these teams were better on the road during the regular season, take the value in the dog. |
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10-12-21 | Brewers v. Braves UNDER 8 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams have been terrible with the bats, with neither team scoring more than 3 runs in a game yet and no total going over 3. I don’t see the bats waking up today, especially with the wind blowing in. Both teams will have just about all options available out of the bullpen in any sign of trouble also. Take the under. |
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10-12-21 | Astros +100 v. White Sox | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The questions about Carlos Rodon haven’t been about his performance but about his durability. He has been pitching well when he has pitched, just 6 times since the end of July. However, he was experiencing a heavy velocity drop in his most recent outings. The Astros had the fourth highest wOBA against lefties this season, and they definitely won’t have a problem if Rodon loses velocity like he has been. Lance McCullers Jr. was dominant in his start in Game 1, and he has been very good in the playoffs throughout his career. The Astros bats are hot right now, and they have the experience. Take the Astros to finish this series in Chicago. |
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10-11-21 | Giants +181 v. Dodgers | 1-0 | Win | 181 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sure, Max Scherzer is starting at home and the Dodgers just put up 9 runs, but do we really think they are -200 favorites in a playoff game? The Giants not only beat the Dodgers in their season series going 6-4 in Los Angeles, but they also had more regular season wins. The Giants have a very good bullpen, and they can piece together some outs while we saw Max Scherzer not at his best in the Wild Card game. This game should be much closer to 50-50, take the value on the Giants. |
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10-11-21 | Colts v. Ravens -7 | 25-31 | Loss | -100 | 123 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Jackson has chewed up and spit out foes coming off a win, going 18-8 SU and 16-9-1 ATS with Baltimore, including 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS versus .333 or worse opponents. Meanwhile, the bruised and battered Colts limp into Baltimore with an 0-5 ATS ledger in their last five meetings with the AFC North. The Clincher: NFL road teams, coming off consecutive away games and a SU underdog win, are just 6-23 SU and 7-22 ATS when facing a foe coming off consecutive wins, including 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS if the visitor owns a sub .666 win percentage. |
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10-11-21 | Rays +102 v. Red Sox | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I was all over the Rays to start the playoffs so I can’t give up on them now. Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, and Nathan Eovaldi have been the best 3 pitchers this series but all 3 should be unavailable for the Red Sox for tonight’s game. Eduardo Rodriguez was hit hard in Game 1 by the Rays and the Rays have been absolutely lighting up left-handed pitching lately. The Rays won 100 games in the regular season and scored the most runs in the league, they won’t go down easy. I think the Red Sox will have a good chance in Game 5 once they get those three pitchers available, but I think the Rays win today with a bullpen game against what would probably be some combination of Rodriguez and Sale. |
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10-11-21 | Brewers +103 v. Braves | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers bats would have put up 18 scoreless innings if it weren’t for a late home run by Rowdy Tellez in Game 1. However, I think they finally put it together today. Freddy Peralta has only made two postseason appearances, but he pitched 6 scoreless innings against the Braves earlier this season, although that was before the trade deadline. Ian Anderson has made 4 postseason starts and he has pitched well in all four. I think this will end up coming down to the bullpens so I will take the Brewers because of that reason. |
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10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs OVER 56.5 | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 123 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units NFL DOGS of < 13 pts who allowed 30 or less COMBINED points in their last 3 games (BILLS) have gone 9-1 O/U since 2014. On the flip side, KC’s offense is in mid-season form right now... 3 out of 4 games have totaled 62 or more points... and they ALSO cracked the 40-pt mark last week (like Buf). All NFL games in which BOTH teams scored 40+ pts the previous week (CHIEFS/BILLS) is 6-1 OU since 2014. Not only did that game vs Philly go OVER last week, but the Chiefs also covered a BIG number. |
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10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 99 h 13 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SNF Game of the Month While the defensive genius of Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is a given, he continues to fly under the radar in games when coming off high-scoring efforts, going 8-1 SUATS in his career in games after the Bills tally 35 or more points in their previous contest. He is also 6-1 SUATS with Buffalo in matchups of winning teams when his troops own the higher win percentage. With that, we turn things over to The clincher: Buffalo QB Josh Allen is 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS in his NFL career against opponents coming off a SUATS win, including 7-0 SUATS when the Bills own a greater than .666 win percentage. |
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10-10-21 | Astros v. White Sox -117 | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dylan Cease is much better at home, so it makes sense why they wanted to give him the start here. However, this should have been Carlos Rodon’s spot and that would have given the White Sox a much better chance to win. This is obviously an elimination game for the White Sox too so I think they will pull Cease at any sign of trouble. Luis Garcia was worse on the road this season, just like the Astros were at 44-37 while the White Sox were 53-28 at home. Garcia faced the White Sox once this season allowed 1 ER in 7 IP. Cease was hit hard in his first start against the Astros this season but gave up 3 ER in 5.2 IP at home. Michael Kopech and Liam Hendriks have yet to pitch in this series and the White Sox won’t have a chance if they don’t. I think the White Sox avoid the sweep at home today, but I think the Astros will end this series in Chicago. Take the White Sox to last 1 more game. |
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10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 16 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week The Niners enter off a pair of SU favorite losses, while the host Cardinals arrive off last week’s underdog win against the Rams. Because of it, the bottom line is this game is packed with value. Remember, the preseason line on this game at the Westgate Super Book was “pick”, so it’s been adjusted more than a variable rate mortgage loan. The Clincher: San Francisco is 12-3 SU and 11-3-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SU losses as a favorite, including 5-0 SUATS versus .800 or greater opponents. Playing against any .500 or greater NFL division favorite coming off consecutive wins, the last as a dog (Arizona), versus an opponent coming off consecutive losses, each as a favorite, if the Over/Under total in this game is more than 41 points is 14-0 ATS since 1980. |
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10-10-21 | Browns v. Chargers UNDER 47 | 42-47 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This Chargers defense is FOR REAL. They are one of only THREE teams to start the year with a 0-4 OU record (the other two are Denver and Pittsburgh). And a league-LOW average MARGIN of -9.5 ppg. They held the mighty Chiefs to only 24 pts... Dallas to only 17 pts... Las Vegas to only 14 pts.... and Wash to only 16 pts (ALL season LOWS). On the flip side, Cleveland also has a killer D in 2021. In fact, the Browns are now ranked #2 in the entire league, allowing only 250.3 yards per game... and only 16.8 points per game |
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10-10-21 | Packers v. Bengals OVER 50.5 | 25-22 | Loss | -108 | 116 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Kudos to the Bengals for a 3-1 SU record, tied for 1st place in the AFC North. They’ve scored 24 pts, 24 pts, and 17 pts in their last three games. nothing to write home about on offense. But... that ‘moderate’ scoring actually puts them in a great spot for an OVER. Consider that all .666 or better teams who scored 24 < pts in each of their last 3 games (CIN), when the OU Line is > 37 points is 41-10-1 OU last 6 years. LAST year, teams in this exact same position went 12-1 O/U! |
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10-10-21 | Lions v. Vikings OVER 48.5 | 17-19 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a NFC North Division series that has gone 3-1 O/U in the last 4 meetings in 2019 and 2020, with an average of 56.2 combined PPG. If this was back in 2018 or 2019, we might have gone the other way... as NFC North Division games went 7-16-1 O/U in that 2-year period. But in 2020, NFL North Division games flip-flopped... and went 9-3 O/U with an average of 55.2 combined ppg. With Minnesota laying a TD in this game, we note that in the last 2 years, GAME 11 or less NFL big division home favs of -7 > pts (VIKINGS) have gone a PERFECT 6-0 O/U when the OU line is 50 or less points (58.6 combined PPG) |
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10-10-21 | Saints -2 v. Washington Football Team | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 52 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sean Payton has a 49-28-1 ATS career mark in games when coming off a loss, including 25-10 ATS away. While Washington is 3-8 SUATS in its last eleven games when hosting visitors from the NFC South. |
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10-09-21 | Dodgers -112 v. Giants | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dodgers were shut down by Logan Webb in Game 1 and while the offense is compromised without Max Muncy, there are far too many great hitters to for them to stay stifled. They led the NL in runs this season. Giants starter Kevin Gausman was very good this season, but a lot of that came early. He had a 4.42 ERA after the All-Star break. He's also been worse at home than on the road. Dodgers starter Julio Urias was better on the road and the Dodgers have won his last 11 starts overall. He had a 1.77 ERA in those outings. He also had a 2.08 ERA in three starts in Oracle Park this year, too. |
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10-09-21 | Utah +3 v. USC | 42-26 | Win | 100 | 75 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Even after the return of QB Kedon Slovis to lead USC’s 37-14 thumping of Colorado last week, we’re not sure we can trust the Trojans to exploit the Utah reset on offense. Not when USC is 0-4 ATS in the series when coming off a SUATS win, plus a passive 7-13 ATS as Pac-12 home chalk, including 1-4 ATS in the last five. Need more? The Utes are a useful 12-7 SU and 15-4 ATS when .500 under Whittingham, including 8-0 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points. The clinchers: Head Coach Whittingham has been money in the bank as a dog when coming off a spread loss of -4 or more points, going 17-4-1 ATS in his career, including 13-1 ATS the last 14 games. |
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10-09-21 | LSU +3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 45 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Play of the Day After losing 33 of its previous 35 battles with the Gators, you would think Mr. Mo-Mentum would stick around Lexington for another week, but his reputation is to bail on the Cats, who are 14-27 SU after games with UF, including 2-7 ATS as a favorite. The Tigers make things more difficult for the hosts with their 17-4 ATS as dogs when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 13-1-1 ATS versus greater than .700 opponents. And for what it’s worth, Kentucky’s finest is 0-3 SUATS since 1980 in Game Six after opening the season 5-0, plus Big blue is a weak 13-33 SU and 17-29 ATS in SEC games after winning any game SU as an underdog. The clincher: College football home favorites coming off a SU home win as an underdog of 7 or more points are 1-13 ATS the last six years when facing .600 or fewer opponents. Playing on any 3-2 conference dog in Game Six coming off a SU conference favorite loss if they scored fewer than 30 points in the loss (LSU) and are facing an opponent that was not favored by 6 or more points in its last game is 12-0 ATS since 1980. |
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10-09-21 | Wyoming v. Air Force -6 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 74 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Playing on any college football home team that rushed for 300 or more yards in each of its last three games is 82-63-2 ATS in this role since 1980. Better yet, bring these overland juggernauts in off a confidence building spread win of 15 or more points, and they improve to 20-7 ATS in conference clashes. Best of all, these same teams who love to run are 15-3 ATS in this role since 1990. |
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10-09-21 | Braves +114 v. Brewers | 3-0 | Win | 114 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Both these teams actually play better on the road. The Braves had the tying run on third base yesterday before grounding out to end the game. Brandon Woodruff has pitched very well this season, but he allowed 3 ER in 5.1 IP to the Braves earlier this season. He was also 0-3 with a 4.09 ERA in September. Max Fried hasn’t faced the Brewers this season but the Brewers struggle against lefties and Fried is absolutely dealing right now. He has pitched 12 straight quality starts and he has allowed 1 ER in his last 23 IP. The Brewers were tied for 23rd in the league in wOBA against lefties and they weren’t doing much better in September ranking 22nd overall in wOBA against lefties. Take the value in the Braves. |
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10-09-21 | Penn State +2 v. Iowa | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 16 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week Penn State is 3-0 ATS on the road with conference revenge (they got drubbed by the Hawkeyes in Happy Valley last year, 41-21, to drop them to 0-5), while Iowa is just 1-5 ATS at home against a vengeful opponent. The Lions are also 10-1 ATS in Game Six of the season versus a foe coming off a win, including 6-0 SUATS in the last six. Meanwhile, Kirk Ferentz is 2-6-1 ATS as a favorite in games when both teams are undefeated and the opponent is seeking revenge. The clinchers: when a 5-0 favorite is laying points into a 5-0 dog – as Iowa will be doing this week against Penn State – the 5-0 favorite is 6-14 ATS. |
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10-08-21 | Dodgers v. Giants +109 | 0-4 | Win | 109 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Logan Webb is 6-0 with a 1.96 ERA at home, and he went 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts vs. the Dodgers this season. LA posted a .127 on-base average against him. The Giants have won 10 of his last 11 starts. Walker Buehler is even more dominant, but he struggled in his last start at Oracle Park, giving up six runs on seven hits in three innings. The Giants went 54-27 at home and continue to be undervalued. |
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10-08-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -135 | 14-6 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Shane Baz is making just his fourth career start although he did pitch well in his first three. Chris Sale will be making just his 8th career postseason appearance and 5th career postseason start so despite being the veteran he doesn’t have a ton of playoff experience. He also has a 5.76 ERA in the postseason. The Rays had the 3rd highest wOBA in the league against lefties since the start of September and they crushed lefty Eduardo Rodriguez early in Thursday’s game. Chris Sale made 3 starts on the road this season and went 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA. He also faced the Rays twice, pitching a quality start and getting blown up. Sale wasn’t getting deep into games either this season, and the Red Sox bullpen is very questionable while the Rays can just go to theirs whenever they need. The Rays are now 8-3 at home against the Red Sox this season and they have won 12 of the last 16 matchups straight up. Take the Rays. |
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10-08-21 | Temple +29.5 v. Cincinnati | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units UC is riding the nation’s second-longest home win skein at 22 in a row – all of which leads to the Bearcats laying four TDs to Temple tonight, a huge jump from their last meeting on this field, where Cincy edged the Owls, 15-13, as 8.5-point chalk. The fact is Temple has cashed five straight tickets in this series, and Rod Carey’s crew is riding a 5-0 ATS skein as dogs of 20 or more points. We feel a natural letdown is in order for the Bearcats here. Consider also that playing against any team off a SUATS win against Notre Dame if they are favored by 11 or more points and are facing an avenging .400 or greater opponent is 15-0 ATS since 1990. |
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10-08-21 | Braves v. Brewers -146 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves come into the playoffs red hot, winning 12 of their last 14 games to close out the regular season. They had teams like the Philadelphia and the New York Mets chasing them in the NL East, so it was like playoff baseball for them after they finally got over .500 for the first time on Aug. 6. Players acquired in trades to make up for the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) paid off. The Brewers found themselves being bored down the stretch after leading the NL Central for 137 straight days. No one truly threatened them, but they finished the regular season having lost 10 of their last 14 against teams such as St. Louis and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Can they simply flip the switch in the postseason? I'm on the Brewers in Game 1 because of the dominance of RHP Corbin Burnes, who is likely to win the NL Cy Young Award. While Milwaukee was sluggish in September, Burnes was still a dominant force. They won 12 straight games behind him before he worked only two innings in his last start, an 8-3 loss to the Dodgers. |
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10-08-21 | White Sox v. Astros -112 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both these starting pitchers have been very good in the playoffs in their short playoff careers. Lucas Giolito has made just 1 postseason start, but he tossed a 1 run, 7 inning gem last year. Framber Valdez also made his postseason debut last year with no fans, and all he did was pitch at least 5 innings in all four starts without allowing more than 2 ER in any of them. The White Sox had the 5th best wOBA in the league against lefties this season but the Astros had the 4th best wOBA in the league against righties. Valdez faced the White Sox twice this season and allowed 2 ER in one game and 4 ER in the other while pitching 7 and 6.1 innings, respectively. Giolito faced the Astros once this season, and tossed a 1 run complete game, but it was at home. The White Sox are 40-42 now on the road this season including the postseason and they are 27-30 against teams over .500. Take the Astros at home. |
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10-07-21 | Rams v. Seahawks +2.5 | 26-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With Sunday’s win over San Francisco, Wilson has never lost three games in a row, and is now 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS while trying to avoid the trifecta. He is also 18-6-1 ATS as a dog in his NFL career when coming off a win, including 4-0 ATS at home – not to mention 9-1 SU and 7-1-2 ATS in games on Thursdays. Meanwhile, the Rams roll into the Emerald City off their first loss of the season knowing they are 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in division duels on Thursdays, including 0-4 ATS when laying points. Given Seattle head coach Pete Carroll’s glossy 28-12 SU and 27-10-3 ATS NFL career mark in home games when his team does not own a winning record (.500 or less), we’ll be back on the take with the Seahawks tonight. |
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10-07-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -141 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I was planning to stay off this game with the Rays opening at -180 but now the odds have swung enough to make a play. The Rays had been crushing left-handed pitching to end the season putting up the 3rd highest wOBA in September in the league against lefties. The Red Sox have been worse against lefties in the same time span, although they haven’t been terrible at 8th in the league. Eduardo Rodriguez has been pitching well lately to just about every team but the Rays, who he allowed 6 ER in 3.2 IP to in his last matchup. Shane McClanahan has faced Boston three times this season and allowed 1 or 0 runs in 2 of the 3 games pitching at least 5 innings in all 3 starts. The Rays are 7-3 at home against the Red Sox this season and they have won 11 of the past 15 matchups straight up. The Red Sox will be riding the momentum of their Wild Card win which is the only thing I am worried about, but with the line coming down so hard there is much less risk. Take the Rays. |
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10-07-21 | White Sox v. Astros -130 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-handers Lance McCullers Jr. (13-5, 3.16) of the Astros and Lance Lynn (11-6, 2.69) of the White Sox are the scheduled starters in Game 1. McCullers pitched two of Houston's five earlier wins over the White Sox, allowing a total of just three runs and four hits in 13 innings with 14 strikeouts. The Astros won those games 8-2 at home and 7-1 on the road. The 28-year-old has made six career starts against Chicago, going 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA. Lynn, meanwhile, was bombed for six runs and eight hits in four innings in his only previous start against the Astros this season. The visiting White Sox were beaten 7-3. The 34-year-old has gone 5-7 with a 4.41 ERA in 14 lifetime appearances against Houston, 13 as a starter. |
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10-06-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 102 | 56 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The gritty Cardinals used a 17-game win streak in September to get here, but they're playing a Dodgers team that's won 15 straight at home. And the pitching matchup favors LA. Max Scherzer faced the Redbirds on Sept. 6 and allowed one unearned run over eight innings. For the season, Scherzer has a 0.00 ERA and a ridiculous 22 strikeouts in 14 innings vs. St. Louis. Since being acquired by LA, Scherzer has a 1.98 ERA in 68.1 innings. Adam Wainwright is an ageless wonder, but the Dodgers got to him for four runs over 8.1 innings in their only matchup this season. Back the Dodgers minus 1.5 runs |
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10-05-21 | Yankees -115 v. Red Sox | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New York RHP Gerrit Cole has seriously struggled lately, but if there is anyone that can lock it in for one start, it’s him. Cole hasn’t had great success against Boston this season, but he also hasn’t been terrible. However, Cole is a different beast in the playoffs, as he owns a 2.68 ERA and has allowed more than two runs just twice in eight starts over his last two postseasons. Red Sox RHP Nathan Eovaldi recently was hit hard by the Yankees in Boston. His only playoff experience came in 2018, when he made two starts and pitched well. I think playing on the road will settle the Yankees instead of the pressure that would come at home game if they were to trail early. Take the Yankees and their pitching staff. |
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10-04-21 | Raiders +3 v. Chargers | 14-28 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chargers beat the Raiders, 30-27, as 3-point road dogs in December of last year, a costly loss that denied Vegas a winning campaign. Carr and head coach Jon Gruden look to get even knowing that the Raiders are 6-1 ATS in the last seven Monday Night games, while the Chargers own a 1-3-1 ATS mark in their last five Monday Nighters. The Chargers have blown a fuse when favored at home over AFC West foes, going 3-8 ATS of late, and L.A. is an even worse 2-12 ATS in the first of consecutive home games. Speaking of home, there may be more Raiders fans than Chargers’ faithful at SoFi Stadium tonight. Take the points. |
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 51.5 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-14 UNDER in their last 17 division road games. |
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10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots UNDER 49 | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 123 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In their last 9 non-division games over the last 12 months, the Patriots have gone a perfect 0-9 O/U (avg margin -8.0 ppg). With the visiting Bucs laying sizable points on the road (-6.5 to -7), this game is active in two of the same situations as our Chiefs / Eagles UNDER. (1) 3-15 O/U L5Y: All GAME 11 < non-division road favs of -6 > pts (Bucs), with an OU line of 49 > pts. (2) 0-7-1 O/U L4 years: All NFL road favorites of > 3 pts after scoring AND allowing 24 > pts in each of last 3 games (Bucs). Tampa lost last week’s game to the Rams by 10 points. 16-58-1 O/U s’14: ALL teams off a road FAV loss of 10 > pts (Bucs). The results improve to 3-18 O/U (85% Unders) when the OU line is > 46 points |
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10-03-21 | Ravens v. Broncos | Top | 23-7 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units Denver stands 22-10 SUATS at home versus opponents coming off consecutive wins, including 15-5 SUATS in non-division contests. Then there’s the red-hot Bridgewater, who is 21-6 ATS when his team is coming off a win, including 15-2 ATS versus non-division foes. Consider that 3-0 teams in the NFL are 15-1 ATS in Game Four of the season when hosting a non-division opponent. |
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10-03-21 | Steelers +7 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -120 | 79 h 40 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units The Steelers come into this one 7-1 ATS as dogs of more than 3 points, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven in non-conference road games. The fact that HC Tomlin is at his best when facing quality opponents who own a .666 or greater record, going 37-13-2 ATS when the foe is coming off back-to-back wins, including 20-6-2 ATS as a dog. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is 37-21-3 ATS as a dog, including 16-5 SU and 17-3-1 ATS away against foes coming off consecutive wins. |
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10-03-21 | Cardinals +4.5 v. Rams | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Is a letdown in order for the Rams after knocking off the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs last week? According to the well-oiled machine, the answer is yes – given the fact that teams who upset the defending champs are just 26-35 SU and 24-36-1 ATS when facing a division rival the following game, including 9-19 SU and 8-20 ATS since 1980 when the divisional foe arrives off a SUATS win in its previous game. Stafford is only 3-10-1 ATS in division games when coming off back-to-back wins. Since the Cards are currently on a 9-3-1 ATS roll as single-digit division road dogs, a take is in order today. |
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10-03-21 | Angels v. Mariners -163 | 7-3 | Loss | -163 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units You may be noticing a trend here in that I'm backing all the teams with something to play for Sunday. Seattle needs a win and some help to earn a wild-card spot. The Angels are starting the awful Reid Detmers (1-3, 7.11). That's a give up. |
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10-03-21 | Padres v. Giants -170 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Giants lost yesterday but they still win the division with a win today or a Dodgers loss and I don’t think they will squander that chance against the Padres bullpen. The Padres fired their manager yesterday and just wanna get home so if the Giants can take the lead early they should have success. Logan Webb has been the Giants best pitcher lately and he hasn’t lost a start in over 15 games. The Padres are going with a bullpen game starting with Reiss Knehr. The Giants are 22-7 in the past month, good for the best record in baseball. The Padres are 7-20 in the past month, good for the worst record in baseball. Take the Giants to clinch. |
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10-03-21 | Rays v. Yankees -121 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units How much do the Rays hate the Yankees? We will find out today because Tampa Bay has squat to play for and New York everything. Honestly, I hope I get this pick wrong but I have to lean the motivated side. Yanks earn a wild-card spot with a victory. |
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10-03-21 | Panthers v. Cowboys UNDER 50.5 | 28-36 | Loss | -109 | 116 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The host Cowboys will be on short rest off last week’s Monday Nigther. Consider that game 4 or greater teams off a Monday game (Dal) have gone 5-19-1 O/U L5 years when the OU line is a high 49 or more points. Dallas is in the midst of a 3-game homestand. 0-6-1 O/U L5Y: All non-division teams in the 2nd of 3 straight home games (Dal), in-between same-division games (Dal). Don’t be afraid that Dallas just scored 41 points on Monday Night. NFL non-div home favorites who scored 40+ at home in their last game (Dal) have gone 5-17-1 O/U since 2011... and a perfect 0-6-1 O/U in last four years. |
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10-03-21 | Chiefs v. Eagles UNDER 54.5 | 42-30 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Just like out other play, the host in this game will be playing on reduced rest (after a Monday game). 0-6 O/U since 2015: All NFL underdogs of > 3 points off a Monday division road game (Eagles), when the OU line is > 41 points. At last look, the OU line for this non-conference game was one of the highest of the week (54-55 pts). Last season, NFL non-division games with a very high OU line of > 53 points in week 4 to week 8 went 90% UNDER (1-9 O/U). |
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10-03-21 | Giants +7.5 v. Saints | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 75 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units New Orleans is just 1-6 ATS in home openers the last six seasons. Meanwhile, QB Jameis Winston’s production last week almost mirrored his Week One performance – without all the touchdowns. Winston wasn’t asked to do much as he threw 30 fewer times than his counterpart, Mac Jones did. While being put under wraps, Winston didn’t make any mistakes, going 13-of-21 for 128 yards and two touchdowns, but it’s difficult being productive when you’re swathed in Saran Wrap. Consider this shocker that the Giants are the NFL’s best road dog the last four years, going 17-3 ATS since 2018. |
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10-03-21 | Panthers +4.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units Playing against any NFL team with a winning record coming off a Monday Night divisional win and cover if they are facing a .750 or greater opponents coming off a SUATS win of more than 3 points is 12-0 ATS since 1980. In addition, Rhule 36-13 ATS away and 40-19 ATS as a dog in his combined college and NFL head coaching careers, and Dallas a dismal 0-8 SUATS at home in games after coming off a Monday night game |
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10-02-21 | Arizona State +3.5 v. UCLA | 42-23 | Win | 100 | 61 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Devils are 10-2 ATS on the road with conference revenge and 5-0 ATS as dogs of less than a TD. They outgained Colorado (439-250) behind dual threat QB Jayden Daniels, who ran for 2 touchdowns and 75 yards, plus threw for 236 yards through the air. Meanwhile, Chip Kelly’s team bounced back from the last-second loss to Fresno State by pummeling Stanford on Saturday, 35-24, in their Pac-12 opener. However, UCLA is just 3-11 ATS as favorites of less than a touchdown. In addition, Kelly is 0-9 SU and 1-7-1 ATS at home with the Bruins versus foes coming off a win. To cap it off, consider that the Sun Devils are 11-4 ATS as dogs under head coach Herm Edwards, including 6-0 ATS in game in which they are allowing fewer than 17 PPG. |
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10-02-21 | Florida v. Kentucky +8.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 50 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units SEC SmokerThe Cats own a Top 10-ranked defense and are outgaining opponents by 183 yards per game this campaign. In addition, HC Mark Stoops is 12-5 SU and 12-2 ATS when the Wildcats are undefeated, including 8-0 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win. His stop unit came up with a big effort in a 16-10 win over South Carolina on Saturday, while the rushing attack rolled up 230 yards on the ground. |
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10-02-21 | Red Sox v. Nationals +135 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nats prized prospect Josiah Gray will be starting against Tanner Houck in what looks to be a bullpen game for the Red Sox. Josiah Gray has been very good his past couple starts and last night’s game was closer than it seemed. The Nats had the bases loaded early with no outs and couldn’t cash in and still lost by only 2 runs. The Red Sox bats have been struggling and they are once again without a DH. Take the Nats and lets hope for maximum chaos in the Wild Card. |
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10-02-21 | Padres v. Giants -155 | 3-2 | Loss | -155 | 6 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Giants need 1 more win to cap off their season by winning the NL West and you know they don’t want it to go down to the last day. Kevin Gausman has been their best pitcher all season so it makes sense that it comes down to him to clinch. Joe Musgrove has been very good this season too, but the Padres have been the worst team in the league since September 1 and I don’t see that changing today. This is a relatively cheap price to get the Giants at home especially in a clinching scenario, take the Giants. |
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10-02-21 | Nevada +6.5 v. Boise State | Top | 41-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 24 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Nevada has had a week off to lick their wounds from a 21-point loss to Kansas State, and should be raring to go in the high country today. It makes sense considering the Broncos are just 1-3 ‘In The Stats’ this year, outgained by 49 yards per game this season. Nevada head coach Jay Norvell (no relation to Mike) is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS coming off a bye, and we’re choosing to forget about the blowout loss to KSU. Consider also that Nevada is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in games when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 7-0 ATS versus a foe coming off a win. |
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10-02-21 | Central Florida -16 v. Navy | 30-34 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Game Four rested road teams who find themselves off one loss have gone 34-17 ATS in conference games including 21-7 ATS when taking the field off a double-digit spread loss in their last game with favorites of more than seven points going 6-0 ATS (Knights) checking in at 11-4 ATS. |
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10-02-21 | Cincinnati v. Notre Dame +2 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Cash Play Playing on any college football home dog of fewer than 4 points (Notre Dame) from game five out if both teams are undefeated and the home dog was either a dog or a favorite of 7 or fewer points in their last game is a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1980. |
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10-02-21 | Rays v. Yankees -124 | 12-2 | Loss | -124 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees are starting with Jordan Montgomery but they will go with mostly a bullpen game. Shane Baz has been good for the Rays but he hasn’t faced the Yankees in a clinching scenario in the Bronx. The Yankees can clinch the playoffs with a win today and I think they’ll get it done. They have the best ERA in the AL and they are using their bullpen to their advantage today while last night it seemed like they were kind of setting their bullpen up for today. The Yankees have won 8 of 10 and while the Rays have been good in the Bronx all season, they are still worse on the road. Take the Yankees to clinch. |
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10-01-21 | Angels v. Mariners -158 | 2-1 | Loss | -158 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners have the longest postseason drought in sports, and now they have to win 3 games to break it. Honestly, I thought the pressure was gonna get to them last series, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it does this series either. This is still a very young team, but they have also won 11 of their last 13 games while the Angels are 4-10 in their last 14 games. Jose Suarez has been solid since being inserted into the starting rotation but he allowed 4 ER in 5 IP in his last start which was against the Mariners. Marco Gonzales is 4-0 with a 3.90 ERA in September and he allowed 1 ER in 7 IP against the Angels in his last start. It’s juicy, but this is one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, take the Mariners. |
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10-01-21 | BYU v. Utah State +8.5 | 34-20 | Loss | -106 | 36 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit Upset of the Week BYU comes into this one a money-burning 2-10 ATS in their last twelve tries as chalk, and coach Sitake is just 4-10 ATS as a favorite when coming off an ATS loss, including 1-8 ATS versus a foe not coming off a spread win of 7 or more points (0-7 ATS the last seven). We know if you watched Utah State implode against Boise State last week, you won’t relish the idea of backing them here, but the bottom line is, the Aggies are a “mission team” coming off a loss, seeking revenge. With non-conference teams 27-11-1 ATS in this role since 1990. Especially with added support that USU head coach Blake Anderson is 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS at home in his career when coming off a home loss |
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10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland +3 | 51-14 | Loss | -103 | 35 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Maryland has yet to face a defense as tough as Iowa. Then again, Iowa arguably hasn't met an offense as explosive as that of Maryland. Terrapins quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa is the Big Ten's leading passer in both yards (1,340) and completion percentage (75.5). He's thrown 10 touchdowns and only one interception. Ferentz highlighted Tagovailoa's mobility, saying he gets out of the pocket "with ease." Consider that playing on any 4-0 or greater college football home underdog (Maryland) versus a 4-0 or greater opponent is a whopping 12-1 ATS since 2014. |
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10-01-21 | Mets +111 v. Braves | 4-3 | Win | 111 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves clinched the division last night so they should be sitting a lot of their players today. Huascar Ynoa also hasn’t been great since returning from the IL going 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in September. Tylor Megill has struggled lately but he has pitched well against the Braves this season and he should be facing a watered down Braves lineup. The Mets haven’t been great at 11-16 in September, but this is a bet banking on the Braves starters sitting after winning the division. |
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10-01-21 | Red Sox v. Nationals +175 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Of course we were on the Orioles the only game of the series against the Red Sox that they didn’t cover, but that’s just how it goes sometimes. However, the Red Sox are spiraling having not scored more than 3 runs in 5 of their last 6 games now. They face another lefty tonight in Josh Rogers after facing all the Orioles lefties that gave them fits. Josh Rogers has been solid for the Nats in five starts so far not allowing more than 3 runs in any of them. Eduardo Rodriguez has been decent lately but the Nats have the best wOBA in the league against lefties, and Rodriguez should get the hook at any sign of trouble. The Red Sox have been much worse on the road this season AND they lose the DH. My main worry is the Nats bullpen so Nats F5 would probably be the best play but I am taking the value in the Nats at home. |
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10-01-21 | Rays v. Yankees -124 | 4-3 | Loss | -124 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays are in no way gonna lay down in this game, but they have to look ahead. They could be facing the Yankees in the ALDS if the Yankees win the Wild Card game, so they won’t want to show their hand in these games that don’t matter for them. That doesn’t mean they aren’t gonna try, but it does mean they might go with pitchers that might not make the ALDS roster or pitch relievers in different roles. The Yankees on the other hand are 2 games up on the Wild Card, and would clinch a playoff spot if they win and either the Red Sox or Mariners lose. Shane McClanahan has been good lately but he has struggled against the Yankees when he faced them, and the Yankees have been hitting lefties well lately. Nestor Cortes Jr. has a 2.38 ERA at home and he has allowed more than 3 ER in a start just once since being inserted into the starting rotation. Take the Yankees at home. |
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09-30-21 | Phillies v. Braves -145 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
The Braves can clinch the division with one more win and I think they’ll do it tonight at home against the Phillies. They have won 5 straight games and 9 of their last 10 games while the Phillies have now lost 3 straight and 5 of their last 10. Kyle Gibson and the Phillies have both been worse on the road and Gibson is actually 0-3 with a 7.16 ERA in September. Ian Anderson is coming off 1 ER in 7 IP in his last start and he has been solid in September. Take the Braves to clinch the division tonight. |
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09-30-21 | Rays v. Astros -147 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays not only clinched their division already, but they clinched home field advantage throughout the AL in the playoffs last night so they REALLY have nothing to play for. Getaway day for the Rays and they should go with a bullpen game. The Astros on the other hand still need 1 more win or 1 more Mariners loss to clinch the division, and since the Mariners don't play tonight, winning is their only chance to clinch tonight. Lance McCullers Jr. has been the Astros best starter this season, lay the juice at home. |
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09-30-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals -105 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cards regulars should all be back in the lineup today as the try to build momentum for the Wild Card game and they are facing lefty Brett Anderson. The Cards have been one of the best teams in the league at hitting lefties the second half of the season. Anderson has been worse on the road and he allowed 6 runs in 1.2 IP in his last start which was against the Cards. He shouldn’t go too deep even if he does pitch well. JA Happ has been solid since a blowup game in Cincy not allowing a run in two of his last three starts. Take the Cards to win their 18th game in 19 tries. |
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09-29-21 | Phillies v. Braves -136 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Max Fried has been absolutely dealing lately as he is 3-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last 7 starts and he is coming off a complete game shutout in San Diego. Aaron Nola is noticeably worse on the road and he has really struggled this season. He pitched well against the Braves last time they met, but he wasn’t too great in any of the previous matchups. He also allowed 6 ER in 6 IP against the Pirates at home last start. If the Braves win tonight, they can’t clinch the division but they can clinch at least a tie for the division. The Braves have won 4 straight and 8 of 10, take the Braves. |
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09-29-21 | Yankees -104 v. Blue Jays | 5-6 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blue Jays pitching staff is a liability while the Yankees have the best ERA in the AL right now. The Yankees have some hot hitters, mainly Giancarlo Stanton who is good for about a home run a game right now. But the Blue Jays are also running cold having won just 5 of their last 10 games. The Yankees have won 7 straight games and if they win tonight behind their ace they have the chance to clinch a Wild Card spot tomorrow. Jose Berrios pitched well against the Yankees in his first start but I think the only chance the Blue Kays have tonight is if Berrios pitches a quality start and goes at least 6 innings. The Yankees have the 3rd best record in the league the past 2 weeks at 9-3 and they are 5-1 on the road. The Blue Jays are just 6-6 the past 2 weeks and 3-2 at home. |
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09-29-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles +1.5 | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Lets see how hot we really are… Both these teams have been pitching well lately, and the Red Sox haven’t been scoring much. Nathan Eovaldi was shelled in his last start against the Yankees but he gave up 3 ER in 5 IP against the Orioles in his start before that. Zac Lowther pitched 5 scoreless innings in his last start and he should build off the momentum of the good starts the Orioles pitching staff has been putting together. The Red Sox haven’t scored more than 3 runs in any of their last 4 games and the Os won Lowther’s start 3-0 last time around the rotation. The Red Sox struggled with lefty Bruce Zimmermann last night, I don’t see much changing tonight. Im gonna take the value on the Orioles at home on the run line at +143 |
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09-28-21 | Padres v. Dodgers -174 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dodgers have yet to lose a home game in September and I don’t see that happening with Walker Buehler on the mound tonight. He is coming off a rocky outing in Colorado so I think he will be juiced up for tonight. Yu Darvish has been better lately but he is still inconsistent. The Padres have been THE worst team in September going 6-16 and 2-9 on the road. The Dodgers have been the 4th best team in September going 16-7 and 7-0 at home. Take the Dodgers. |
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09-28-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals +108 | 2-6 | Win | 108 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units : Interesting move by the schedule makers having these teams play again but the Cardinals just swept the Brewers in 4 games in Milwaukee before extending their franchise long win streak in Chicago to 16 games. Now they head home where you know it will be rowdy as they look to clinch the Wild Card spot with a win. Adam Wainwright gave up a first inning Grand Slam in his last start against the Brewers but he will be much more settled down at home. Brandon Woodruff allowed 6 ER in 5 IP in his last start against the Cards and he hasn’t been exceptional losing each of his last three starts despite pitching ok. If the Cards are gonna continue to be underdogs on this streak there’s no reason not to take them... at least until they clinch. |
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09-28-21 | Yankees +116 v. Blue Jays | 7-2 | Win | 116 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I hate to do this as my heart is with the Blue Jays but the Yankees are playing very good baseball right now and Giancarlo Stanton is hot. Jameson Taillon is coming off the IL to make this start but I don’t think he will have a long leash as the Yankees have a very good bullpen. Hyun Jin Ryu is also coming off the IL to make this start and he has dominated the Yankees this season. However, he has been very bad lately, and the Yankees have been crushing lefties. Rogers Centre will be rockin' tonight, but it’s not like Fenway Park wasn’t the past few days. The Yankees have won 6 straight games and the Blue Jays have lost 5 of their last 10. The wrong team is favored, take the value in the underdog. |
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09-28-21 | Cubs v. Pirates -102 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates are playing some of the best baseball in the league right now while the Cubs have lost 11 of their last 13 games and 14 of their last 18 games. The Pirates are 6-3 at home in September and Mitch Keller has been solid in September going at least 5 innings in all his starts and only allowing more than 2 runs once. He also pitched 6 scoreless innings against the Cubs earlier this month. Alec Mills allowed 5 ER in 5.2 IP to the Pirates when he faced them and he is 0-1 with a 7.08 ERA in September. The Pirates have the starting pitching advantage, and they are the hotter team, take the Pirates at home. |
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