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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-21-19 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers @ 2:10 ET - The Astros Lance Lynn has a low ERA versus the Astros this season but, keep in mind, he did allow 3 homers in his lone start at Houston this season. Also, though Lynn has a 3.15 ERA this month he has been hit at a .277 clip and all 3 of those starts were at home. This will be just the second road start for Lynn since mid-June! I expect the Astros to enjoy success at the plate here as this is their third shot at Lynn this season. Though he had success against them on July 11th, Lynn's other two starts this month saw him allow 7 earned runs on 17 hits in 13 innings. The issue for Houston today won't be their lineup, it will be the fact that their starting rotation has been impacted by injury. The Astros are expected to give Rogelio Armenteros his first-ever MLB start. The rookie right-hander has had some success in his first 3 MLB appearances out of the bullpen. However, lets not forget that Armenteros went 4-6 with a 5.05 ERA and .286 BAA at AAA Round Rock this season. Though one can say that is the Pacific Coast League and ERAs do tend to be higher than normal there, it does not change the fact that it is AAA hitters he is facing and plus Armenteros had much better numbers in the very same league last season. Don't be surprised if the Rangers give him a rough intro to what it is like to start at the MLB level and, of course, he'll face the extra pressure of trying to perform well for the home fans here. The first two games of this series stayed under the total but Texas entered this series on a 10-3 run to the over. Also the Astros and Rangers entered this series having gone 5-1 to the over in their 6 most recent meetings. With this total dropping from a 9.5 to a 9 we have even more value in this one. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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07-20-19 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 11.5 | Top | 17-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Tom Eshelman gets the start for the Orioles. He has limited MLB action and is likely to get crushed by a Red Sox lineup that is very powerful and will be fully focused after yesterday's embarrassing loss. This total is up near a dozen runs and many will look at this as being too high so, in typical contrarian fashion, I am backing the over and telling you this one should fly over the total. Eshelman truly has only had ONE good season in the minors. That was 2017. He certainly did not impress in 2015 or 2016. As for 2018 and 2019 he is a combined 4-18 with a 5.38 ERA. Keep in mind this is against MINOR league hitters and now he faces the Red Sox off an embarrassing loss. Eshelman is destined to get pounded but I also expect Boston's Rick Porcello to get pounded as well and that is why the play here is the over. The Orioles tend to score better when at home and have scored an average of 5.8 runs in their last 10 at Camden Yards. They'll take advantage of Porcello. The BoSox right-hander has a 5.97 ERA in road games this season and has been hit at a .297 clip away from home. Since the start of the 2017 season he has allowed 81 homers! Porcello had a 6.46 ERA last month and has a 7.71 ERA so far this month. As you can see he is not exactly improving as the season has gone on. Also, the Red Sox bullpen ERA ranks in the middle of the pack while the Orioles bullpen ERA ranks them dead last in the American League. A slugfest is likely here. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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07-19-19 | Rockies v. Yankees OVER 11 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #979 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:05 ET - No team in MLB has scored more runs against left-handed pitching than the Rockies. Look for Colorado to get to JA Happ early and often in this one. Happ has been hit at a .294 clip in home games this season and has a 5.98 ERA at Yankee Stadium. Taking a look at the other side of this match-up, I am well aware of the fact that the Yankees do not have great numbers against left-handed pitching this season but they are facing a struggling southpaw in this one. The Rockies are starting Kyle Freeland and the lefty has gone 2-6 with a 7.39 ERA in his 13 starts this season. He has been particularly poor in night games as he is 1-5 with a 7.99 ERA in evening outings and it is going to be hot and steamy in the Bronx tonight. The Rockies enter this game having allowed an average of 11 runs per game in their last 6 games. Colorado did score 8 or more runs in 3 of those 6 games. The Yankees are coming off 3 straight wins against the Rays after losing the opener of a 4-game series. The Yanks averaged 6.3 runs per game in those 3 victories. This is a big total posted on this game but it is absolutely justified as these are two potent lineups and two starting pitchers likely to get rocked. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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07-18-19 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:10 ET - Hot and steamy evening at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. It is the ideal weather for the ball to be jumping off the bats in Cincinnati and, based on this pitching match-up. we should see plenty of that in this one. Dakota Hudson starts for the Cardinals and he has had decent success against the Reds in his career but this will be his first ever start at Cincinnati! As for the Reds Tanner Roark, he had a decent start against the Cards earlier this season but that was preceded by a rough history against St Louis. Roark allowed 19 earned runs in 24 innings in his 5 prior starts against the Cardinals. The fact that Roark's April start against STL stayed under the total was very unusual as NONE of Roark's first 5 career starts against the Cards resulted in an under. As for the Cardinals, they are 14-8 to the over this season when they are a road dog in a range of +100 to +150. The Reds are 4-1 to the over this season when they enter a game off back to back losses to a division rival. After losing 2 straight to the Cubs, Cincinnati's bats get back on track here but Roark gives up plenty too in what should be a back and forth high-scoring affair. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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07-17-19 | Tigers v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - This total opened up at a 9.5 and of course the odds makers are well aware of the fact that the Indians Mike Clevinger has pitched very well in his last two starts and could be getting back on track finally. Of course the market moved this total down to a 9 but I feel the odds makers had it right. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the market move. For one thing, the Tigers lineup does have plenty of familiarity with Clevinger and lets not forget that Detroit had scored an average of 6.6 runs per game in their 7 road games prior to getting shutout last night. I expect the Tigers lineup to bounce back here. The issue for Detroit is they can't stop teams from scoring and that won't change with Spencer Turnbull on the mound. Keep in mind, behind Turnbull is a Tigers bullpen that ranks as one of the worst in the majors. As for Turnbull's likelihood of success on the mound tonight it ranges between slim and none. The Detroit right-hander has given up 7 runs (6 earned) in just 8 innings of work in his last two road starts. Turnbull has as many walks as strikeouts in his last two starts away from home. Also, Turnbull is 0-3 with 11 earned runs allowed on 24 hits allowed in the 14 innings spanning his 3 career starts against the Indians. The over, prior to the shutout last night for the Tigers, was 10-2-1 in their previous 13 road games! The over is 8-2 this season when the Indians are off a shutout win. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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07-17-19 | Mets v. Twins OVER 10.5 | 14-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets @ 1:10 ET - This match-up features a pair of southpaws as Jason Vargas goes for the Mets and the Twins go with Martin Perez. This should lead to plenty of runs in this one as these are two of the top hitting teams in the majors against left-handed pitching. Minnesota is at the very top with a .294 batting average while New York ranks a solid 5th out of all 30 teams with a .273 batting average against lefties. The Mets Vargas has a 5.10 ERA in his road starts this season and only 3 of his 9 starts away from home have resulted in an under. As for the Twins Perez, he has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his last 5 starts even though he averaged only 5 and 2/3 innings per start in those four outings. Vargas has averaged only 5 innings per start in his last 5 starts and another short outing today would expose a Mets bullpen that is one of the worst in the majors. New York's over is 25-10Â as a road underdog of +150 to +200 even including yesterday's rare under in that role. The over is 8-4 this season in Twins Wednesday games. This Wednesday game is getaway day for the Mets as they head to San Francisco after this one. Look for a slugfest to precede their trip west! 8* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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07-16-19 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers OVER 10 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #927 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:05 ET - No team in the American League has scored more runs at home than Texas. No team in the National League has a higher slugging percentage on the road than Arizona. The point is that both these teams can be expected to do plenty of damage here. I know that Alex Young has pitched very well for the Diamondbacks but his MLB action has been limited. He has made 3 starts and one was at home and the other two were both at pitcher friendly venues. Young is making his first ever "tough venue" road start and I expect the southpaw to finally come back down to earth after his surprising success at the MLB level. Keep in mind, Young had a combined 6.00 ERA in 40 appearances (20 starts) at the AAA level of the minors before his call up this season. Both last year and this year at the AAA level were not impressive for the young left-hander. As for Rangers starter Lance Lynn, he has pitched well this season but he has given up 15 hits in 14 innings in his two July starts - both at home. Also, in his final home start of June he allowed 5 earned runs in 7 innings. Even though this is an interleague game, the Diamondbacks did face Lynn earlier this season. They will fare much better now that they're seeing him for a 2nd time this season. The over is 23-13 this season when Arizona is a road underdog. Also, in road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs, the Diamondbacks are 3-1 to the over. Texas is 12-6 to the over this season when off a loss by a margin of 4 or more runs. The Rangers are also 8-3 to the over their last 11 games and 10-4 to the over in Tuesday games this season. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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07-16-19 | Nationals v. Orioles OVER 11 | 8-1 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #925 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - Austin Voth gets the start for the Nationals. In 7 games (5 starts) at the MLB level, Voth has a 6.00 ERA. He faces an Orioles team that, though they are in the basement of the AL East, does have a tendency to swing the bats better when at home. Baltimore struggled in their 4-game series with the Rays but, in their previous 7 games at home the Orioles averaged scoring 6 runs per game. The Nationals enter this series off a rather tight, low-scoring series with the division rival Phillies. However, their prior 8 road games saw Washington score an average of 6 runs per game. The Nats will take advantage of facing a struggling Asher Wojciechowski. The right-hander has had a rough time at the MLB level just like Voth has thus far. Asher Wojciechowski has a 6.57 ERA in his 33 appearances (13 starts) at the MLB level. The over is 4-1-1 this season when the Nationals are a road favorite of -175 or more. The over is 6-1-1 the last 8 times Washington was on the road with a posted total of 11 or 11.5 runs. The over is 7-2 this season when the Nats are playing after a day off. The over is 19-7 this season when the Nationals are off of 3 consecutive games versus a division rival and also a perfect 4-0 when off a one-run loss to a division rival. Baltimore is 6-2 to the over in interleague action this season. The Orioles, as a home underdog of +150 to +200, are 14-2 to the over this season! More of the same expected here. 8* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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07-15-19 | Braves v. Brewers OVER 10 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:10 ET - The Brewers are one of the top slugging teams in the National League when at home. The Braves are one of the top slugging teams in the National League when facing right-handed pitching. Atlanta will take advantage of a struggling Adrian Houser in this one. Houser has been exceptional out of the bullpen this season but he has struggled in the starting role. Milwaukee is sticking with him, for now, but the fact is some guys never get right in this role and are better suited for bullpen duty. Note that Houser is now 0-3 with an 8.47 ERA in his 5 starts this season! Facing one of the hottest teams in the majors is unlikely to help matters for the struggling Houser. Speaking of struggling, the Braves Max Fried got rocked in each of his last two starts before the All Star break. Though he was successful against the Brewers earlier this season, that start was at Atlanta. When Fried faced Milwaukee at Miller Park last season he gave up 4 earned runs in a start that lasted only 3 innings. The over is 11-5-2 in Fried's starts this season. The over is 2-0 in Houser's last two starts. The Brewers are 5-0-1 to the over in their last 6 games. The over is 5-2 this season when Atlanta enters a game on a winning streak of 4 or more consecutive games. After getting shutout in their first game this month, the Braves have scored an average of 6 runs per game since then. Milwaukee has averaged scoring 5 runs per game their last 6 games but they've given up an average of 8 runs per game during this stretch as their bullpen has faltered. More of the same likely here, especially considering that Houser is unlikely to work deep into this game. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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07-15-19 | Rays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Monday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:05 ET - These opponents just saw these pitchers and though they each had success in that outing, the quick second look is going to change things in a hurry in this meeting. Note too that the Yankees James Paxton got hit at a .330 clip in his 5 June starts. Also, so far this month, Paxton's low ERA is deceiving as he has been hit at a .313 clip in his 2 July starts. Look for the Rays to hit him hard. I also look for Blake Snell to get hit hard too. The Tampa Bay southpaw has been solid at home this season but the road has been a different story. Snell is 2-4 with a 6.48 ERA in his 9 road starts this season. Also, Snell had a disastrous start at Yankee Stadium earlier this season and he has now allowed 23 earned runs in 26 inning spanning his last 7 starts in the Bronx. This venue has given him trouble more often than not throughout his career. Considering these factors as well as this total dropping from an opener of 9 down to an 8.5 as of early Monday morning, we have excellent line value here for a play on the over. The Yankees won 4-2 yesterday and the over is 16-7 this season when they are off a win by a victory margin of 2 or less runs this season. 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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07-14-19 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 10.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #925 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners @ 4:05 ET - The Mariners Yusei Kikuchi has struggled this season and the Angels sticks have certainly been a part of that as they have caused plenty of damage when facing the southpaw. Kikuchi has faced the Angels three times and has a 12.34 ERA with 5 homers allowed in less than a dozen innings spanning those three outings. Los Angeles enters this game having piled up 22 runs in the first two games of this series and more of the same expected Sunday given this pitching match-up. Yes the Seattle bats have been held in check so far in this series but that should change today. The Mariners solid lineup will take advantage of facing a rookie hurler they've already seen twice this season. Overall, LA rookie Jose Suarez is struggling. That means it is particularly bad news when a struggling rookie has to face a potent lineup for the 3rd time already in the same season. The point is that the Mariners are very familiar with him and they can do plenty of damage against him. Note that the over is 9-1 in Kikuchi's ten road starts this season. Also, the over is a perfect 5-0 (one push) in the six starts that Suarez has made this season. The over is also 8-2-1 in the last 11 games between these teams as their match-ups continue to turn into slugfests. Certainly this match-up has all the right ingredients for the slugging ways to continue. Sometimes key players rest on a Sunday but, with both teams having an off day tomorrow, that should not be the case here and both lineups should end up being stacked! 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels |
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07-13-19 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 14 | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:10 ET - This total may seem absurd with how big it is but it is still not big enough. This one opened up at 13 and is now a 14 as of very early game day morning. Don't let the large number scare you. Tanner Roark has decent career numbers against the Rockies but the Reds right-hander made only one career start at Coors Field. Roark was very fortunate in that outing as he allowed 5 hits and plus walked 4 batters in that 5-inning effort and yet he managed to hold Colorado to 2 runs. He won't be so fortunate here. Hitting conditions will be ideal tonight in Denver and the ball is going to be jumping off the bats. Of course that is bad news for the Rockies starting pitcher tonight too. Kyle Freeland gets the start and he is having a hellish season. The Colorado southpaw is 2-6 with a 7.13 ERA. That is why the Rockies sent him to the minors to "get right" and he is now being called back up after his stint there. However, Freeland certainly still does NOT look right. The Colorado southpaw went 0-4 with an 8.80 ERA in his 6 starts with Albuquerque in the minors. He is likely to get rocked here. After last night's 3-2 final it may seem tough to expect 15 runs here but I see that and much more on the horizon in a slugfest tonight. The Rockies bullpen has a 6.16 ERA in home games this season. The Reds bullpen has been decent this season but they were welcomed to Coors Field last night by allowing 2 earned runs in just 1 inning and blowing the game. I expect the Cincinnati bullpen to be called upon much earlier in this one and the results will again be ugly for them. That said, this one has the makings of runs early, often, and throughout the contest. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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07-12-19 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros @ 8:05 ET - After getting shutout in last night's game the Astros will respond tonight. After scoring only 1 run after the 1st inning last night, the Rangers bats also are going to surprise some people tonight with more consistent offensive production. Yes, Gerrit Cole is a great pitcher and the Astros right-hander has been on fire of late. However, this will be just his 2nd road start since June 2nd. In other words, he has been dominating at home but this is a pitcher whom has struggled in Arlington. In his last 3 starts at Globe Life Park, Cole has allowed 16 runs (15 earned) in 15 and 1/3 innings. You read that right...Cole has allowed about a run per inning the last 3 times he has faced Texas in their park. As for run support here, Cole should receive plenty of it. Jesse Chavez is coming back down to earth after some surprising early success in the starters role. In his last two outings Chavez has allowed 9 runs (7 earned) in 11 innings of work and now he faces an angry Astros lineup (after last night's shutout loss) that is loaded with hitters whom have enjoyed success against him. Prior to last night's game totaling just 5 runs, 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams had gone over the total. Those 4 overs averaged 17 runs per game! I am not saying this one will hit 17 but I am saying it gets to double figures and this game opened up at a 10.5 but has dropped to a 9.5 as of early Friday morning. I am all over the value being offered with this one after the line move. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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07-07-19 | Cubs v. White Sox OVER 10 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #979 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs @ 2:10 ET - When the Cubs were up 5-1 in the top of the 5th in yesterday's game and still had bases loaded and nobody out but yet didn't score a single run, I had a bad feeling that would burn us. Sure enough my hot streak with top totals ended because the game fell a half run short. We've had some good breaks along the way too and you have to take the bad with the good. So we move forward and when I saw the pitching match-up for Sunday (and after getting burned Saturday), I knew I would be coming right back with the over in the Chicago match-up again. Kyle Hendricks starts for the Cubs and he is 3-5 with a 5.53 ERA in his 8 road starts this season. Ivan Nova starts for the White Sox and he is 0-4 with an 8.31 ERA in his 7 home starts this season. The over is 9-4 in Cubs inter-league games this season. The over is 12-6 this season when the White Sox are a home dog of +125 or more. Payback time here as this one should take care of business for us after Saturday's frustrating finish. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox |
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07-06-19 | Cubs v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #929 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:15 ET - The Cubs Jon Lester has been great this season in home games but, even though this game is being played in Chicago, it is on the south side at Guaranteed Rate Field. Note that Lester has a 5.67 ERA away from home this season. A cool front is blowing through Chicago today and that will keep temperatures very comfortable in the low 70s and with a solid north wind blowing out toward right. Some of the left-handed bats particularly of the Cubs could take advantage of that as they face the right-hander Lucas Giolito. While it is true that Giolioto has great numbers on the season, the Cubs got to him for 3 homers when they faced him last month. In that outing Giolito allowed 6 earned runs in just 4 and 1/3 innings of work. Giolito also faced the Cubs in September here on the south side and that start did not go particularly well either. In fact, Giolito has now allowed a total of 11 earned runs in his last two starts against the Cubs. Coincidentally, Lester happened to be matched up with Giolito in each of those two starts. Though Lester allowed a total of only 5 earned runs in 10 and 2/3 innings, the lefty did give up 15 hits so he was very fortunate to say the least. The White Sox won't let him off the hook this time as his road struggles continue this season. The over is 3-0 in Lester's last 3 starts against the White Sox. Also, the over is 6-1 in Lester's road starts this season. The Cubs are 4-1 to the over their last 5 games. The White Sox are 13-7 to the over their last 20 games. The Cubs are 9-3 to the over in inter-league games this season. The White Sox are 14-8 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox |
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07-05-19 | Royals v. Nationals OVER 10 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - The Royals are ranked in the bottom third of the majors for bullpen ERA. The Nationals relief corps is even worse as they are ranked dead last in the majors for bullpen ERA. This could prove to be a key factor early this evening in DC because it is unlikely that either one of these starting pitchers will last long. Kansas City is starting Brad Keller and he has been solid at home this season but the road has been a different story. Away from home, Keller is 2-6 with a 5.08 ERA in his 7 road starts. Opponents are hitting .281 against Keller when he is away from home. Last season, his rookie campaign, Keller also got hit at a .282 clip so there is consistency in terms of his performances away from home. The Nationals should jump all over him but their problem is that they also have an inexperienced hurler on the mound whom is still trying to find his way at the MLB level. Austin Voth gets the start here and he is off a poor start at Detroit. Keep in mind the Tigers are the lowest scoring team in the majors. Granted the Royals aren't a whole lot better but KC does enter this game having scored 4 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games. All 5 of those games went over the total. As for the Nationals, they have a .458 slugging percentage in home games this season and that ranks them in the top third of teams in the majors! The Nats have won 13 of their last 16 games and have averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game during this stretch. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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07-04-19 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 9 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees @ 5:10 ET - The Yankees won again (5-1) yesterday and they continue red hot at the plate as they again reached double digits in hits. The Yankees have now won 14 of their past 16 games and have scored an average of 7.6 runs per game during this hot streak! The Rays aren't known for their hitting prowess but I like their chances against an inconsistent JA Happ. Also, Tampa Bay lost 9-6 yesterday but that marked the 11th time in 13 games that the Rays have scored at least 4 runs. Keep in mind, with today's total posted at a 9, we only need each team to get to 4 runs to guarantee us of a non-losing ticket as the game would have to end at least 5-4. The fact is I am expecting much more than that here in terms of runs scored. The Rays have scored an average of 5.8 runs per game in their last 5 games and Happ has a 9.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and has continually been hit hard. Tampa Bay is starting Yonny Chirinos in this one. The TB right-hander has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his last two starts. Also, in his two starts against the Yankees he has allowed 3 earned runs each time. Having just seen him a couple of weeks ago, the Yanks lineup is likely to enjoy even more success in the rematch today. Happ only allowed 2 earned runs to the Rays when he faced them two weeks ago but he did allow 7 hits in 5 innings and that was in the Bronx. In 2 of his last 3 starts at Tropicana Field he has been roughed up and that is where today's start is. The over is 3-0-1 in the Rays last 4 games. New York is off back to back unders in their IL series with the Mets but the Yankees entered that series on a 15-5 run to the over and their sticks have remained hot. The over is 25-10 in Yanks road games this season! 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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07-04-19 | Tigers v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers @ 2:10 ET - First off I want to note that if there is a pitching change in this match-up I still want you to be playing it as I will be this match-up no matter whom the starting pitchers end up being. Why is that? It is because these teams had to play 21 innings of baseball with yesterday's double-header as one of the games went 12 innings and the fact is that the hitters ruled the day. The teams combined for 27 runs in yesterday's twin-bill and I look for the lineups to stay hot here. The over is 6-2 in Chicago's last 8 home games. The over is 6-1-1 in Detroit's last 8 road games. The projected starters for this match-up are Matthew Boyd and Reynaldo Lopez. Both were slated to start Tuesday's opener which got rained out. Both guys were warming up and getting geared up for the start before the postponement was announced just before game time. That said, this is an awkward situation for the starters after what took place Tuesday plus now having their starts pushed back to Thursday. It is not as if either starter has been going well either. Boyd has a 6.88 ERA in his last 3 starts. As for Lopez, he has a 6.12 ERA in his 17 starts this season. Opponents are hitting .293 against Lopez this season. Behind these guys are two bullpens that saw plenty of action in yesterday's double-header and, that is why, no matter which starters end up getting the call in this one, I like the over as we should see another game reaching into the dozen runs range again today just like both of Wednesday's games did. 8* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox |
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07-03-19 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:20 ET - The lowest scoring game on the board yesterday was this match-up which ended up a 2-0 Phillies win thanks to a brilliant start from Aaron Nola. After that pitchers duel now we've got the perfect set up for a slugfest on Wednesday as Nick Pivetta squares off with Bryse Wilson. Philadelphia's Pivetta has an ugly 7.13 ERA over his last 3 starts and he has allowed 7 homers during this stretch. As for Atlanta's Wilson, he has an 8.31 ERA in limited action this season. He is very early in his MLB career but already Wilson has proven to struggle at this level. In 6 games (3 starts) the Braves right-hander has been been hit at a .306 clip at the MLB level. The Phillies, prior to scoring just 2 runs yesterday, had averaged 7.4 runs per game in their 7 prior games. The Braves, prior to being shutout yesterday, had won 17 of their last 23 games and averaged scoring 6.7 runs per game. The over is 3-0 in Pivetta's last 3 starts against the Braves and he got crushed in each of the last two. Wilson got crushed in his starts versus the Phillies earlier this season and the over is perfect in his starts this season. The Braves are 22-12 this season as a favorite of -125 to -175. In Braves home games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs, the over is 5-2 this season. Philadelphia, prior to yesterday's shutout, had allowed 5 or more runs in 12 of their past 16 games! Atlanta, prior to getting a sharp start from Dallas Keuchel yesterday, had allowed 8 or more runs in 4 of their past 9 games. A slugfest on tap in this one. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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07-02-19 | Astros v. Rockies OVER 13 | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #927 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - Jose Urquidy will be making his MLB debut for the Astros. The Houston right-hander is known for having great control but also known for not having overwhelming stuff in terms of his repertoire of pitches and their movement. That being said, making an MLB debut at Coors Field without having dominating stuff even in normal pitching conditions, this is unlikely to go well for Urquidy. Note that the Rockies last 8 home games have produced 7 overs and just 1 under. In these 8 games at Colorado, the Rockies have scored an average of 10 runs per game but also allowed an average of 10 runs per game! The home side is starting German Marquez in this one. The right-hander has been hit at a .314 clip at Coors Field this season and has produced a 5.70 ERA in his 9 starts here. Marquez had similar struggles at home last season with a 4.74 ERA and being hit at a .284 clip in Denver. I also like the fact that his ERA has been rising higher with each month this season. Last month Marquez compiled a 6.60 ERA in his five starts. The over is 5-2 this season when Houston is off a win over a division rival in which they allowed 1 run or less. Also, the Astros are 10-3 to the over in Tuesday games this season. Colorado is 18-8 to the over this season as a home favorite of -110 or more. After a game in which they allowed double digits in runs scored, the Rockies are 9-2 to the over this season. More of the same on tap in what should be another wild one at Coors Field Tuesday evening. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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07-02-19 | Yankees v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #925 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in New York Mets vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - Very rarely do you see this much early movement on a total and I am happy to go contrarian here and take advantage of the incredible added value. The very first number that popped up on this game when lines came out yesterday afternoon was a 10. Now, as of early Tuesday morning, the line has dropped all the way down to as low as an 8.5 in some spots. This is incredible value for a number of key reasons. One is that, believe it or not, the Mets rank among the top hitting teams in the majors against left-handed pitching this season. The Mets are hitting .280 with an on-base percentage of .350 and a slugging percentage of .476 against southpaws on the season! They'll be ready to tee off against lefty James Paxton of the Yankees. Paxton got crushed by the Mets three weeks ago and you can't really call it a fluke because the left-hander has a 6.08 ERA in his 6 starts since returning from the injury list in late May. As for Mets starter Zack Wheeler, struggles against the lineup he faces today are also quite likely. The right-hander got crushed by the Yanks earlier this season at Yankee Stadium. This is nothing new as Wheeler has a 10.00 ERA in his career against the Yankees. Part of the reason for the line move is the notion that the Yankees could be flat and tired after their big series in London against the rival Red Sox. I will blow holes right through both of those absurd theories. Yes the Red Sox are the biggest rival of the Yanks but they don't take the Subway Series lightly either. After all, this is the battle for New York head to head supremacy and, as such, it carries some extra meaning. As far as being tired, the Yankees game Sunday was an EARLY game that started at 10 AM ET because it started at 3 PM local time in London. Yes the Yankees then had a long flight back to New York after that game but they GAINED 5 hours on the clock coming back AND they had an OFF day yesterday. The Yankees will absolutely be ready here WITHOUT jet lag as they came from east to west which is so much easier than going the other way. Also note that the Mets bullpen is absolutely one of the worst in the majors. Even if Wheeler has a decent start (which would be a surprise) bullpen implosions have been frequent with this Mets bunch. This one is a helluva bargain at 8.5 runs. I expect the total may go back up as the day goes on but this one, regardless, should see double digits in runs scored. 8* OVER the total in New York Mets |
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07-01-19 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-18 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET -Â Adbert Alzolay has made two appearances thus far for the Cubs and he has been successful. However, this will be just his 2nd start at the MLB level and his first ever appearance on the road. Also, let us not forget that this is a guy whom last season and this season combined has a 4.40 ERA at the minor league level. In other words, as strong as he has been thus far, it has been very limited action for sure at the MLB level and I am predicting a regression to the mean begins today. Look for Alzolay to struggle Monday at Pittsburgh. The Pirates are off a tough series at the plate at Milwaukee. However, prior to struggling to score runs against the Brewers, Pittsburgh had averaged 6.7 runs per game in their 15 previous games. Look for the Bucs to get back on track as they return home for this series with the Cubs. As for Chicago, they have defeated Trevor Williams in 5 of his 6 career starts against him. The Cubs have a number of hitters in their lineup whom have enjoyed success against the Pirates right-hander. Williams will be dealing with a Cubs team that has scored 6 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 games. Williams has allowed 11 earned runs in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, on the season, Williams has a 6.00 ERA in his home starts with 3 of the 4 going over the total. Look for the Cubs hitters to start the new week off with a bang! This is the 10th Monday game this season for Chicago and so far the Cubs have had only 1 under this season in a Monday game! The Pirates are 18-9 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Pittsburgh is 11-4 to the over this season when they are at home and priced as an underdog of +100 or higher. The over is 6-0-1 in Pirates Monday games this season. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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06-30-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 13.5 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 3:10 ET - Congrats to Rockies starting pitcher Chi Chi Gonzalez on making it all the way back from Tommy John surgery. He is coming off his first start at the MLB level since 2016. Though he allowed only 3 earned runs in that outing it was against a light-hitting Giants team and it was in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. Also, it is not as if he had a great outing as he allowed 6 hits plus walked 4 in just 5 innings of work. Now he faces the slugging Dodgers at the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball. Look for Gonzalez to struggle this afternoon at Coors Field. Keep in mind, prior to his MLB season debut versus SF, he was pitching in the minors this season. Gonzalez compiled a 5.66 ERA at the minor league level this season. In other words, he was very far from being dominant even when facing minor league hitters. Now he faces one of the toughest major league lineups in the game. Look for this one to get ugly for him fast. I know yesterday's game stayed well under the total but Kershaw went 7 innings and Gray went 6 and 2/3 innings. That means the teams combined to use just 3 and 1/3 innings of bullpen and that helped keep the total under. The fact is neither of these starts is likely to last long. Kenta Maeda has enjoyed some surprising success against the Rockies, even at Coors Field, in his career. However, I feel strongly it all catches up with him here as his road stats long-term tell the full story. Maeda has a 5.67 ERA on the road this season. Last season his home and road stats were about the same but in 2017 the Dodgers right-hander had a 5.62 ERA on the road. He is known for struggling away from home and the Rockies enter this game having averaged scoring 10.6 runs per game in their last 7 home games! They'll explode in this one and, keep in mind, prior to yesterday's low-scoring Rockies win the last 6 games here had averaged a total of 22 runs scored per game. Yes the total is a 13.5 on this one but don't let the big number scare you away as another slug-fest is on tap this afternoon at Coors Field. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-30-19 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 10.5 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs @ 1:10 ET - Hot and steamy afternoon at Great American Ball Park. Neither of the first two games of this series went over the total despite also having ideal conditions. That said, look for a Sunday slugfest to make up for that in this series finale. The Cubs Jon Lester has been great at home this season but he has a 5.82 ERA in his 6 road starts this season. Also, after a great start to the season, Lester has certainly cooled as he got hit at a .303 clip in May and then in June he has struggled often. Yes, the Cubs southpaw is off a strong start versus Atlanta. However, prior to that he endured a 3 start stretch in which he allowed 7 homers which helped lead the way to 13 earned runs allowed in less than 17 innings of work. Truly he has been "on the fade" for awhile now as Lester's final 3 starts in the month of May saw him allow 16 earned runs in just 14 innings! As for the Reds Anthony DeSclafani, his fade also started in mid-May as he has been getting hit quite hard ever since then. The Cincinnati right-hander also has struggled in day game outings this season. DeSclafani has been hit at a .301 clip and compiled a 6.52 ERA in his 8 afternoon starts this season. More of the same on tap here. Chicago is 5-1 to the over in Lester's 6 road starts this season. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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06-29-19 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 105 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners @ 8:15 ET - It may seem surprising to see a 9.5 posted on a total that involves Justin Verlander pitching at home in Houston. Of course long-time followers know that when something may look a little unusual I am one to fade market perception and be a contrarian. On that note, even with Verlander on the mound and the fact yesterday's 10-inning affair totaled only 3 runs, I am on the over in a big way in this one. For one thing, Verlander has allowed 7 homers in his last 3 starts. Also, this will be the 3rd time this season that the Mariners are getting a crack at Verlander and I look for the 3rd time to be the charm. The first two match-ups this season were in Seattle and Verlander held the upper hand. This one, however, is at Minute Maid Park and the last time Verlander faced the Mariners here was in August. The veteran right-hander got rocked for 6 earned runs in just 2 innings as he allowed 7 hits including 3 homers! Don't be surprised when Seattle enjoys some success at the plate in this one. As for the Astros sticks, they should pound Yusei Kikuchi as he has a 5.62 ERA in his last 3 starts and that could easily be even worse. Kikuchi has allowed nearly 2 base runners per inning in his last 3 outings! The over is an incredible 14-1-2 in Kikuchi's 17 starts this season! Prior to yesterday's under, the over was 4-1 in the Astros previous 5 games. The Mariners are 11-1-1 to the over in Saturday games this season! Also, Seattle is overall 55-25 to the over on the season - with 5 pushes - and that strong high-scoring trending resumes today after yesterday's rare low-scoring result. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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06-28-19 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - The Reds Sonny Gray and the Cubs Cole Hamels both have solid ERA numbers on the season. However, Gray has allowed 2 homers in each of his last two starts. Also, when he faced the Cubs last month the Reds right-hander also allowed 2 homers. Hamels allowed 8 hits (including 2 homers) in less than 7 innings of work the last time he faced the Reds. Also, he enters this start off an outing in which he also allowed 2 homers. Gray has a 6.00 ERA in his last 3 starts overall and Hamels, despite recent success, could struggle here at a very hitter-friendly park on a night when the ball will be carrying very well based on the weather forecast. The ball should be jumping off the bats on a very hot evening at Great American Ball Park. The Reds are happy to be back home after scoring just 1 run in each of the final two games of their road trip. Prior to that Cincinnati had scored an average of 6 runs per game in their 8 prior games! As for the Cubs, they're off a huge 9-7 win yesterday. Chicago has averaged scoring 5.3 runs per game their past 9 games. The over is 15-9 this season when the Cubs are facing a team with a losing record. Also, the over is 10-5 this season in Chicago's road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Look for the over to improve to 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these divisional foes. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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06-28-19 | Indians v. Orioles OVER 9 | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Friday 8* OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:05 ET - The Indians Mike Clevinger certainly has had a history of fantastic starts but the key is that this is when he is healthy and in top form. This will be just his 4th start this season as Clevinger has been unable to stay healthy. Having been so limited in appearances even as we nearly are entering the All Star break, don't be surprised if the Indians right-hander shows some rust here. The Orioles John Means has solid numbers this season but he missed his last start due to "tired arm" concerns and I won't be surprised if he gets rocked tonight. Means did struggle at Cleveland last month when he most recently faced them. Also, the Baltimore southpaw allowed 7 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start in mid-June. Means should prove to be quite hittable again tonight as he tries to work back to top shape. At the same time, note that the Orioles bullpen has an ERA north of 6 on the season and that is the worst mark in the AL. The over is 7-1 in Baltimore's last 8 games. Also, the over is 11-2 this season when the Orioles are off a game in which they allowed double digits in runs. That is the case here and I am expecting plenty of scoring in this one. 8* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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06-27-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 PM ET - Hot weather in Denver today and the ball is going to be carrying very well in this one tonight. The result is excellent line value with the over in this one. Yes the posted total on this one is big but, with conditions like this tonight as well as a very favorable pitching match-up for the hitters, this one will have runs aplenty. The Dodgers are starting Walker Buehler in this one and this will be the 3rd time he has faced them this season. Yes he has had success thus far but look for the 3rd time to be the charm for the Rockies hitters. Last week's Buehler start was at Dodger Stadium and when he faced Colorado in early April that start was at Coors Field but with weather conditions completely unlike what will be seen tonight. The Rockies are averaging 7 runs per game at home this season. But the Colorado bullpen ERA at home is a 5.76 this season. That said the Dodgers hitters are poised for a big night at the plate too. Not only did they just face Peter Lambert last week in LA, now they get a shot at him in hitter-friendly Denver where Lambert has allowed 9 earned runs in just 8 innings spanning his two starts there. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Lambert's last 3 starts. The over is 7-3 in Colorado's Thursday games this season. The over is 23-13-1 in Rockies home games this season. With yesterday's over (Dodgers were at Arizona), note that Los Angeles has had just 2 unders in their last 9 games. All the over trending stays HOT in this one. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-26-19 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals @ 7:10 ET - A lot of value here with low total posted on this game. I understand the low number of 7.5 (some odds makers opened up at 8) because Patrick Corbin had a great start versus the Marlins earlier this season and Zac Gailen had a great MLB debut last week. However, lets dive into the facts a little deeper and you can see why I am fading the line move on this one. The Nationals Corbin now has to pitch at Miami this time (first meeting was in DC) and the last time he pitched at Marlins Park he was rocked for 6 runs (5 earned) in 5 innings while allowing 3 homers! Corbin has a 5.82 ERA in his last 3 starts overall and a 5.91 ERA in road starts this season. The Marlins Gailen faced the team that drafted him (St Louis) last week so that was an emotional MLB debut for him. Yes he was successful in his 5 inning stint but it took 99 pitches to complete the 5 innings. The bullpen then imploded in that game and cost him a win. On that note, lets talk about these bullpens for a moment. The Nationals are the WORST bullpen in the majors this season based on team ERA and the Marlins certainly are NOT much better. That said, we've got a total of 7.5 in a game in which it wouldn't be a surprise if both starters got hit pretty hard and then weak bullpens also come into play. Note that the Nationals have won 7 of their last 10 games and have scored an average of 6.2 runs per game in doing so. Miami had won 6 of their last 9 games before yesterday's ugly loss and the Marlins had averaged 5 runs per game in winning 4 straight prior to that defeat. Look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Corbin's last 4 road starts. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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06-25-19 | Rangers v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - The Rangers and Tigers feature two of the worst bullpens in the majors based on both opponents batting average and team ERA for their respective bullpen work. Certainly that could prove to be an issue here but Texas right-hander Jesse Chavez is making his first "real start" since July of 2017. What I mean by "real start" is that he has been used as an "opener" this season but those are truly short stints. This is the first time Texas is using him in hopes of getting 5 or 6 innings out of him as a starter. That said, he may struggle the 2nd time through a lineup and also could struggle early in this start too. Why? Well he has allowed 7 earned runs on 15 hits in less than 11 innings of work in his last two starts at Comerica Park. The good news for Rangers fans here is that the Tigers starter is also likely to struggle. Jordan Zimmerman just recently returned from injury and certainly he was not sharp in his first start back. Detroit is now 0-5 in Zimmerman's last 5 starts and the over is a perfect 5-0 in those starts. That is due in large part to the fact that Zimmerman is 0-4 in those 5 starts and has compiled an ugly 9.58 ERA in those outings. The right-hander is coming back from an elbow injury and he could be limited here. With both starters unlikely to work deep into this game, their sub-par bullpens could be exposed in this one. Texas is scoring an average of 5.8 runs per game against right-handed starters this season. Certainly the Tigers numbers are not good in terms of offensive production this season. However, other than a shutout last week, the Tigers did average scoring 5.3 runs per game in their other 4 games. Couple that with the history of Chavez struggling in this park and you have a recipe for some Detroit success at the plate in this one. Look for the over to move to 6-0 in Zimmerman's last 6 starts as the over also moves to 10-3 in Rangers Tuesday games on the season. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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06-24-19 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 10.5 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - Although the Yankees CC Sabathia has had great success at home this season, I expect the lefty to get roughed up here. The last time Sabathia faced the Blue Jays in the Bronx was not that long ago (September) and he was rocked for 5 earned runs in only 2 and 1/3 innings. Sabathia has allowed 5 homers in his last 9 and 1/3 innings against Toronto. The Blue Jays enter this contest with plenty of confidence at the plate. Toronto is off a 6-1 win Sunday and has won 3 of its last 4 games. Also, in terms of run production, the Blue Jays have scored an average of 6.3 runs per game their last 8 games. This one is likely to turn into a slugfest as the Blue Jays start Aaron Sanchez in this one. The right-hander is 0-8 in his last 8 decisions. Also, Sanchez is most recently 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA in his three most recent starts. He is 0-2 with 7 earned runs allowed in 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts against New York. The Yankees lineup comes into this game red hot. Prior to a 9-4 loss to the Astros yesterday, the Yankees had won 8 straight games and scored an average of 7.5 runs per game in doing so. Don't be surprised if this one ends up being a 7-6 type game. The over is 13-7, including 3-1 this season, when Toronto is on the road in a game with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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06-23-19 | Orioles v. Mariners OVER 9 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles @ 4:10 ET - Another high-scoring game yesterday as these two teams have now combined for 31 runs in the last two games. The Orioles are 8-2-1 to the over in their last 11 games as Baltimore has allowed an average of 8.6 runs per game their past 11 games. Seattle has scored an average of 7.8 runs their past 4 games. The Mariners are 18-5-2 to the over in their past 25 games! Seattle has allowed an average of 5.8 runs per game their last dozen games. Baltimore's Gabriel Ynoa is winless with a 5.65 ERA this season. Also, he has allowed 7 homers in his last 3 starts. Seattle's Yusei Kikuchi has allowed 6 homers in his last 3 starts while compiling an ugly 8.78 ERA in these outings. Incredibly, the over is 13-1-2 this season in Kikuchi's starts. The over is 22-6 in Mariners day games this season. This match-up also features the two worst bullpens in the American League this season as the Mariners have a 5.26 ERA and the Orioles have a 6.13 ERA on the season. With the way these starting pitchers and bullpens have been performing, plus the fact that both teams have hit well in recent days, this one has slugfest written all over it. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
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06-23-19 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 9 | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 1:35 ET - The Nationals were originally going to start Patrick Corbin in this one but instead it will be Austin Voth getting the ball. This will be his first appearance this season and note that he compiled a 6.57 ERA in 4 games (2 starts) last season with Washington. Truly he has not impressed at the minor league level but the Nats don't have a lot of options so Voth gets the call. He is 13-25 the last 3 years combined in the minors with a 5.00 ERA. Keep in mind that is against minor league hitters! Now he faces a Braves team that has been knocking the cover off the ball plus one that terrorized the major league worst Nationals bullpen yesterday! It is unlikely that Voth goes deep so even more big runs against the Washington pen quite likely today. As for Braves starter Michael Soroka, he is having a great season but has struggled with his slider in his last two starts. That has led to Soroka allowing 8 earned runs in 11 innings spanning his last two starts and his strikeout numbers are down too. The over is 4-0 in Soroka's last 4 starts. The over is 18-4 in the Braves last 22 games. More of the same expected here on Sunday. 8* OVER the total in Washington |
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06-22-19 | White Sox v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #927 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox @ 9:05 ET - This total opened up at an 11 and dropped to a 10.5 as of early game day morning. I am well aware of the fact that Lance Lynn has pitched very well this season but he also struggles much more versus left-handed bats than righties. The White Sox have a number of left-handed bats and switch-hitters that could give him some trouble tonight. Also, with their 5-4 win last night, the White Sox have won 5 of their last 8 games and have averaged a respectable 6 runs scored per game in those 5 wins. The Rangers, despite the 5-4 tenth inning loss yesterday, have a very potent offense and have averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game at home this season and 5.8 runs per game against right-handed starters. Texas should enjoy a breakout game at the plate tonight as they take advantage of facing the struggling Odrisamer Despaigne. He is 13-26 with a 5.05 ERA at the MLB level in his career and things are going from bad to worse for the White Sox right-hander. He is 0-2 with an 8.71 ERA in his two starts this season. The over was 6-2 in the White Sox 8 games prior to last night's game staying under the total. The over was 4-1 in the Rangers last 5 games prior to now recording back to back unders at home (rare). Look for "normal" to return tonight with a slugfest at Globe Life Park in Arlington. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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06-21-19 | Padres v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres @ 7:05 ET - The Padres bullpen has a 5.52 ERA in road games. The Pirates bullpen has a 5.60 ERA in home games. San Diego starter Eric Lauer has a 7.82 ERA in road starts. Pittsburgh starter Joe Musgrove has a 5.71 ERA in home starts. Lauer has allowed 22 hits in 15 and 1/3 innings spanning his 3 career starts against the Pirates. Musgrove has fared well in his two career starts against the Padres but both of those were at pitcher friendly Petco Field. This match-up at PNC Park will prove to be a much tougher one for him. Musgrove's two starts against the Padres both went over the total and the over is 2-1 in Lauer's three starts against the Pirates. The over is 10-2 in Musgrove's last dozen starts! The over is 6-1 this season when the Padres are playing after a day off. Also, when San Diego enters a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games, the over is 7-1 this season. In home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs, the over is 7-2 in Pittsburgh this season. With this total dropping from a 9 to an 8.5 we have excellent line value here. The over is also 11-5 this season in Pirates games against left-handed starters. The Bucs enter this game having scored an average of 6 runs per game their last 11 games. The Padres enter this game having scored an average of 9 runs per game their last 6 games. Per all of the above, all signs point to this one cashing nicely for us. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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06-20-19 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:10 ET - Milwaukee's game flew over the total yesterday and I look for more of the same today. I know the Brewers had been trending under recently and, overall, the Reds have been trending under all season (including yesterday) but the situation here is conducive to an over. The Brewers are coming off a tough road trip and are happy to be back home. They will take advantage of facing a struggling Tanner Roark. The Cincinnati right-hander is 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. All 3 of those outings resulted in an under but it certainly wasn't due to his pitching. Now Roark faces a Brewers team that has gotten to him for 7 earned runs in just 10 and 1/3 innings in his two most recent starts against them. Milwaukee has their own concern in terms of their starting pitcher Thursday. Jimmy Nelson gets the start and the Brewers right-hander has allowed 8 earned runs in just 7 innings combined in his first two starts this season (both this month). Also, Nelson certainly doesn't have good recent history against the Reds. In his most recent start against Cincinnati, Nelson gave up 9 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work. Look for the over to improve to a perfect 3-0 in Nelson's starts on the season. The Brewers have a .480 slugging percentage at home this season which ranks them 4th in the majors! The Reds have won 4 straight games and averaged 5.3 runs per game during this hot streak. Cincinnati scored 7 runs in their most recent road game too, also a victory. Both teams enjoy plenty of success at the plate in this one. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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06-19-19 | Royals v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:40 ET - The Mariners got shut out at home yesterday and the 9-0 Royals win just missed going over the total. That has set up the type of situation I look for when it comes to totals. On Wednesday, the Mariners have the struggling pitcher on the mound so the Royals should keep scoring. At the same time, you know Seattle is poised to bounce back at the plate after a rare home shutout loss. The Mariners have been one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors this month. First off lets talk about Marco Gonzales. The Seattle left-hander is likely wishing he was not at home for this start. In his 4 home starts dating back to May 1st, Gonzales has been nothing short of awful. The southpaw has allowed 30 runs (24 earned) in just 15 and 1/3 innings. Those are horrible numbers of course and the KC bats have plenty of confidence here as they have now scored an average of 8 runs per game in their last 3 games. The Mariners, prior to yesterday's shutout, had scored an average of 6.6 runs per game their last dozen games. They'll bounce back here against Brad Keller. I know that the Kansas City right-hander has some impressive numbers this season and a low ERA on the season. However, Keller has been hit quite hard in many of his road starts this season. In fact, prior to a surprisingly strong road start at Minnesota in his most recent outing, Keller had given up 19 hits in 13 innings spanning his two prior starts away from home. The Mariners have a quality lineup that is in bounce back mode and will enjoy success here. The over is 15-4-2 in Seattle's last 21 games. The over is 20-6-1 in Mariners day games this season and this one starts at 3:40 PM local time. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
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06-18-19 | Indians v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:05 ET - I am coming right back with the over in the Rangers / Indians match-up after losing by the slimmest of margins with yesterday's picks. Yes today's total is a 10.5 whereas yesterday's was a 9.5 but that is because of the pitching match-up here. Don't be fooled by the strong ERA of Zach Plesac and the respectable ERA of Adrian Sampson in this one. I will start with the latter. Sampson has been hit at a .287 batting average in his career and that includes opponents hitting .284 against him this season. In other words, his stuff is nothing special and I look for the Tribe to hammer him after being held to just 2 runs in yesterday's loss. As for Plesac, the 24-year old rookie started out like gangbusters in his first 3 starts but his most recent start (allowed 3 homers to the Reds) is a sign of things to come. That start versus Cincinnati was at home for Plesac and now he goes on the road for the first time in over two weeks. Not only that, he is facing a Rangers team that is the #1 scoring team in the AL when at home. Texas is averaging 5.9 runs per game in their 37 games played in Arlington this season. The Rangers have scored 7 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 home games. Cleveland, prior to being held to 2 runs in yesterday's loss, had scored an average of 8.3 runs per game in their last 3 road games. The Indians bats get back on track here and the Rangers sticks stay hot at home in hitter-friendly conditions at Globe Life Park in Arlington Tuesday. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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06-17-19 | Indians v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:05 ET - Lance Lynn has strong numbers for the Rangers overall but even though he is undefeated in his home starts he has actually been hit quite hard in his starts in Arlington. Also, against left-handed batters Lynn struggles much more than against righties. That will prove to be an issue against the Indians because they are loaded with left-handed sticks and switch-hitters. Don't be surprised if Mike Clevinger struggles too. This is his first start at the MLB level since he hurt his back two months ago. In a rehab start at the AAA level he gave up 3 earned runs in just 2 innings. He is a hard thrower but that is actually the type of pitcher the Rangers have had success against in the past and Texas is a very strong hitting team when at home. Clevinger also may struggle a bit with his location as this is his first start in two months. The Rangers bats, especially when in Arlington, can certainly make pitchers pay for "mistake pitches" in terms of location. The Indians scored 8 runs in yesterday's win and they are 6-2 in their last 8 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in those 8 games. The Rangers are off an 11-3 loss yesterday on the road but they entered that game having scored an average of 6 runs per game in their 9 prior games. The over is 5-1 in Cleveland's Monday games this season. The over is 15-9 when the Rangers are facing a team with a winning record. This total opened up at a 10 with good reason. The Indians have a strong bullpen but the Rangers do not and, with the line move down to a 9.5, I am happy to grab the extra value being offered here. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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06-16-19 | Royals v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 2:10 ET - The Twins have been hitting the ball very well but today have a "weak link" in their starting rotation taking the mound and that set this one up well to be an over. Of course the odds makers feel the same way I do and set this total as high a a 10 but the markets have already forced a move down to as low as a 9. This is the ideal situation I like to take advantage of in terms of value and I won't hesitate to step in on this one! The Twins Martin Perez is winless with an 8.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. The left-hander will be opposed by the Royals Jake Junis. The KC right-hander is unlikely to have success here. Junis gave up 3 homers in just 3 innings the last time he faced Minnesota. Also, Junis has allowed 9 homers in his last 6 road starts. Overall he has allowed at least 2 homers in 2 of his last 3 starts. The Twins have scored 5 or more runs in 8 of their last 10 games. Minnesota has had just 1 under in its last 10 games! The over is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 starts that Perez has made. The over is 18-11-3 in Twins games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. This one is set to fly over the total and I am going to take advantage of the value added by false perception on the part of the betting markets. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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06-15-19 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 8-14 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:10 ET - Yesterday's game was a wild one to say the least. The Padres came up with a huge rally in the top of the 9th and then won the game with another huge rally in the top of the 12th! The game finished a 16-12 San Diego win and both teams had to use 7 innings of bullpen as the starters for both the Padres and Rockies only lasted 5 innings. Another wild one is quite likely tonight and I like the fact that the total on this game dropped from an 11.5 to an 11 as that is offering up even more line value with this one. Both the Padres Eric Lauer and Rockies German Marquez are likely to struggle here. Marquez has been great on the road last season and this season but home outings have been a different story. Last season Marquez was hit at a .284 clip in home games and compiled a 4.74 ERA. This season Marquez has been hit at a .303 clip at Coors Field and compiled a 5.06 ERA. Lauer has made two career starts at Coors Field and both were nightmares. The Padres southpaw has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in just 6 innings spanning his two career starts at Colorado. Considering the likelihood of each starter struggling here, the fact that both bullpens got stretched out yesterday, and the fact that the ball will again be carrying very well at hitter-friendly Coors Field, this one has "over" written all "over" it! 4 of the 5 meetings between these teams in Colorado this season have resulted in an over. The over is 9-3-1 in San Diego's last 13 games. Each team scored a dozen runs yesterday and I look for the teams to, at the very least, combine for a dozen runs in this one Saturday. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-14-19 | Angels v. Rays OVER 7 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:10 ET - Yesterday's total was an 8.5 and moved to a 9 in some spots and those who had the over got burned. The game was 5-3 through 5 innings so only one run was needed the rest of the way but it didn't happen. Yes the Rays pen has been strong this season but they had struggled some of late. Also, the Angels bullpen ranks in the bottom of the 3rd of the majors but, inexplicably, there was not a single run scored in the final 4 innings of last night's game. I like coming back with the over in the very next game after one plays out like that and I especially like the fact that this total opened up as high as an 8 but has since dropped to as low as a 7 as of early Friday morning. The Rays Blake Snell has great numbers again this season but has a 6.10 ERA in his last two starts. The Angels Andrew Heaney has allowed multiple homers in each of his 3 starts this season. The trouble with the longball is why he has a 6.17 ERA in his last two starts. Based on the above as well as the low total on this one following the line move, you can see why I like the over in this match-up. The Angels are averaging 5.7 runs per game their last dozen games. The Rays have suddenly been held to 3 or less runs in each of their last 3 games but, prior to this tough 3-game stretch, they had averaged 5.6 runs per game their last 9 games. Heaney allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his lone career start at Tropicana Field and the Rays again get to the homer-prone lefty in this one. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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06-13-19 | Mariners v. Twins OVER 10.5 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 101 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners @ 1:10 ET - Yesterday's game flew over the total to continue the high-scoring trend for these two ball clubs. The over is now 7-1 in the Mariners last 8 games and the Twins are 8-1-3 to the over in their last 12 games. That' right, three pushes and just ONE under in Minnesota's last DOZEN games! Look for the high-scoring ways of both teams to continue here as this is also a favorable pitching match-up for an over and the weather will be very pleasant in Minneapolis for this afternoon affair. The Twins are starting Michael Pineda and he got rocked for 3 earned runs on 8 hits in only 5 innings in his first start back after returning from injury. The Mariners are starting Yusei Kikuchi and he is in a horrific slide. In his last 3 starts Kikuchi has allowed 29 hits (including 6 homers) in just 10 innings of work! The southpaw was successful against the Twins in a mid-May start but he has struggled since then and Minnesota will enjoy success in their 2nd shot at Kikuchi this afternoon. As for the Twins Pineda, he has allowed 6 homers in 18 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts against the Mariners. The over is 19-5 in Seattle's day games this season and also a perfect 6-0 in their road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. Look for the over to improve to 9-1 this season in Mariners Thursday games! The over is 8-4 this season in Minnesota's games against left-handed starters. The over is 6-1 this season in Twins Thursday games. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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06-12-19 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 102 | 1 h 42 m | Show |
NOTE: Derek Law now getting the start as an "opener" for the Blues Jays in this one. He has pitched only 18 innings in his 14 appearances out of the bullpen this season. Law has a 5.89 ERA. This play remains as a Top Play even though Law is now the opener. Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams have been trending under this month and we've got a big total (11) posted on this game. That would make this seem like a value spot for an under but the pitching match-up here suggests plenty of runs in this one! The Blue Jays Edwin Jackson is struggling badly this season and even though only 2 of the runs he allowed in his most recent start were earned, the fact is he allowed 6 runs in 3 and 1/3 innings. The veteran right-hander is 0-4 with an 11.90 ERA on the season. He'll be opposed by the Orioles David Hess and he is 1-8 with a 7.08 ERA on the season. He had a great start against the Blue Jays very early this season but, since then, Hess has compiled an 8.20 ERA. The over is 3-1 in Jackson's last 4 starts and the over is 4-1 the 5 home starts Hess has made this season. The weather will also be favorable for an over at Oriole Park at Camden Yards tonight. This venue is known as a hitter friendly venue and everything lines up well for runs early, often, and throughout this contest. The Orioles bullpen has a 5.61 ERA this season which ranks them dead last in the American League. The last 10 times Baltimore has played a home game with a posted total of 11 or 11.5 runs, only 3 of the 10 games has resulted in an under! In other words, don't let the big number keep you away from this match-up as the Orioles and Blue Jays should both do plenty of damage at the plate considering this pitching match-up. Toronto had allowed an average of 7 runs per game their last 9 games before yesterday's under. The Orioles had allowed an average of 7 runs per game in their last 3 home games prior to yesterday. Look for both teams to put plenty on the board in this one. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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06-12-19 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers @ 4:05 ET - Fenway is a hitter friendly park and temperatures will be mild this afternoon in Boston with the wind expected to be blowing out toward left-center field. Also, the total opened up at a 10 on this one but has dropped to a 9.5 as of early game day morning. This has resulted in added value in this match-up. The Rangers won yesterday's game 9-5 and Texas has won 9 of its last 12 games. The Rangers have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last dozen games. On the season Texas is averaging 6 runs per game against right-handed starters while the Red Sox are averaging 5.5 runs per game against right-handed starters and 5.5 runs per game in home games. Boston's Rick Porcello gets the start in this one and he has been hit very hard while compiling a 6.23 ERA in his last 3 starts. The last time Porcello faced Texas as a host he allowed 11 hits in less than 7 innings of work. The Rangers hand the ball to Lance Lynn for this one. The right-hander has produced surprisingly solid numbers this season. However, Lynn's recent starts have included, among his last 5, two against the Royals and two against the Mariners. Both of these teams are last place teams that have been struggling. Now he faces a solid Red Sox lineup that is ultra dangerous at home. The over is 10-5 this season in Rangers games in which their money line ranges from +125 to +175. Texas is 15-7 to the over this season in day games. The over is 6-3 in Red Sox Wednesday games and 15-9 in their day games this season. 8* OVER the total in Boston |
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06-11-19 | Reds v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:10 ET - These are two well-respected pitchers and that is helping to keep this total low. The key to the value is that both hurlers have struggled of late and so we have got some solid value here considering the way the Indians have been scoring runs. Cleveland is starting Trevor Bauer and he has allowed 26 runs (21 earned) in the 32 innings spanning his last 5 starts! The Reds do have familiarity with him since they have faced him in prior season in interleague action. While this will be Cincinnati's Luis Castillo first start against the Indians, Cleveland still should enjoy success. Why is that? The Reds right-hander has had command issues of late. Though he is off a better start, Castillo previously allowed 7 runs (6 earned) in just 8 innings of work spanning his two prior starts. He'll be facing an Indians team that has scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 6 games. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 games for the Tribe. Bauer has allowed 4 homers in his last two home starts. Pleasant weather expected at Progressive Field this evening as well. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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06-10-19 | Cardinals v. Marlins OVER 8 | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Monday 8* OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins @ 7:10 ET - This is a contrarian play as most will be looking for a lower-scoring game involving the light-hitting Marlins. The fact is Miami has been better at the plate overall the past week or so. The Marlins lost 7-6 yesterday but that marked the 5th time in their last 8 games that they have scored 6 or more runs. During this stretch Miami has averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game. On Monday, look for the Marlins to take advantage of facing a struggling Michael Wacha. He is back now from being relegated to bullpen duty and the long-term numbers don't lie. The Cardinals right-hander has a 6.30 ERA on the season. He is facing a Marlins lineup that has produced double digits in hits in 5 of its last 8 games. Wacha has seen the over go 6-2-1 in his 9 starts this season. The Marlins will have Sandy Alcantara on the mound. He is a former Cardinal and facing them for the first time since departing St Louis. Oftentimes pitchers can be guilty of trying to "overdo it" when facing their former team. That generally can lead to a loss of command and mistake pitches. Don't be surprised if the Cardinals get to him early and often in this one. The over is 22-13 to the over (including 4-2 this season) in Monday games. The Marlins are 25-15 to the over in night games this season and 6-2 to the over this month. Their bullpen ranks among the worst in the majors and the Cardinals bullpen ranks only in the middle of the pack. In other words, we should also get some late-inning runs if needed. 8* OVER the total in Miami |
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06-10-19 | A's v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland A's @ 7:10 ET - Charlie Morton has great numbers for the Rays but the A's lineup includes a number of guys that have enjoyed plenty of success against him. Don't be surprised when Oakland enjoys some success tonight against Morton. The issues for the Athletics is going to be slowing down the Rays. The A's are starting rookie Tanner Anderson. He has been pitching at AAA Las Vegas. At that level Anderson has compiled a 6.26 ERA in 11 games (10 starts) and now he'll be facing major league hitters so the likelihood of getting hit hard is certainly there! In terms of production on offense in this one, Oakland has scored 5 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games and they have averaged 6 runs per game. The Rays come into this one hot as well in terms of their run production. Tampa Bay has averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game in their last 8 games and has scored 5 or more runs in 6 of their last 8 games. Each of these teams has produced 4 or more runs in 7 of their last 8 games. That is definitely noteworthy here as getting this game to 4-4 guarantees us of a winning ticket as that means the game has to end 5-4 at the very least. Both the A's and Rays are each 4-2 to the over in their Monday games this season. Look for plenty of runs in this one...early, often, and throughout this contest. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay  |
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06-09-19 | A's v. Rangers OVER 11 | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics @ 3:05 ET - This is a contrarian play when looking at how well Frankie Montas has pitched for the A's this season. However, as long-time followers know, I go contrarian to public perception quite often and that is the case here as per usual. With this total at 11 or 11.5 runs many perceive it to be too high considering that Montas is 7-2 with a 2.83 ERA for Oakland this season. The key to the value is he is facing a Rangers team that has been one of the top hitting teams in the majors this season and that tends to be particularly dangerous when on their home field. After yesterday's sweep of the double-header, Texas is 9-3 their last dozen games and the Rangers have scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. On the season Texas is averaging 6 runs per game against right-handed starters and the A's are averaging 6 runs per game in road games. Oakland should have no trouble with the offerings of Rangers lefty Drew Smyly in this one. The Texas southpaw has been rocked in each of his last two outings and also got rocked by the A's when he faced them earlier this season. Smyly is 0-2 with a 7.43 ERA in his 6 home starts this season. Oakland is 16-8 to the over, including 5-1 this season, in road games in which they are a road favorite in a price range of -125 to -175. Texas is 7-3 to the over in Sunday games this season and the over is 14-7 in Rangers day games this season after Game 1 of yesterday's double-header had 15 runs scored and soared over the total. More of the same here! 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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06-09-19 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 10 | 5-2 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox @ 2:15 ET - The Royals are starting Glenn Sparkman here. He is off a respectable start against the Red Sox in his most recent outing but he struck out only 2 in 5 and 1/3 innings. Now he faces the team that clobbered him in his prior start as he allowed 4 earned runs in just 1 inning against the White Sox in late May. The ChiSox won again over the Royals yesterday as their dominance (7-2 L9) over KC continues. The White Sox, prior to yesterday's low-scoring win, had scored 4 or more runs in 7 of their last 9 games against the Royals. Look for that trend to resume here and note that in 5 of the 7 Chicago scored at least 5 runs and I expect them to get to at least that today. The Royals sticks should also come to life here after getting shutout by a red hot Lucas Giolito yesterday. The White Sox start the struggling Reynaldo Lopez in this one. The right-hander is 0-4 with an 8.75 ERA in his 5 road starts this season and opponents have hit .340 against Lopez in his outings away from home! More of the same expected here! The over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 starts Lopez has made. The over is a perfect 7-0 this season in Royals home games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. In other words, don't let the big number posted on this total scare you. It is certainly justified for all the reasons noted above. 8* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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06-08-19 | Yankees v. Indians OVER 10 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
TV Game of the Day - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs New York Yankees @ 4:10 ET - CC Sabathia is a former Indian and this could be the last time he pitches at Cleveland. Though the veteran left-hander will be be amped up to have a strong start it is unlikely that will be the case here. He has been hammered in each of his last two starts at Progressive Field. Also, the Tribe continue to be stronger with the sticks of late. With their 5-2 win yesterday, the Indians have averaged a respectable 5 runs per game over their last dozen games. The Yankees, prior to yesterday's poor day at the plate, had averaged 7 runs per game in their last 11 road games. Also, New York had scored 6 or more runs in 10 of those 11 road games. The Indians sticks should enjoy plenty of success as homer-prone Sabathia's struggles with the long ball continue. The Yankees southpaw has allowed 13 homers in his last 7 starts! The Yanks sticks should crush the ball here too as they take advantage of facing Cleveland's Adam Plutko. The Indians right-hander has been bouncing between the majors and minors this season and neither has gone well for him. Plutko has a 6.35 ERA at the MLB level this season and a 5.50 ERA in the majors in his career! In the minors this season Plutko has gone 1-3 with a 7.47 ERA! You can see why I am expecting the Yankees sticks to bounce back after yesterday's disappointment. Even including yesterday's under, the Yankees are an incredible 20-7 to the over in road games this season. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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06-08-19 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 1:05 ET - David Price was slated as the Boston starter originally for this match-up but then the decision was made to call up Josh Smith for this start. The Red Sox 31-year old right-hander is 5-9 with a 5.28 ERA in his MLB career. In 6 starts with Pawtucket at the AAA level of the minors this season, Smith has compiled a 5.23 ERA. You can see why I am expecting him to get lit up here by a Rays team that is averaging 5.6 runs per game in its last 16 games - an 11-5 stretch for Tampa Bay. The issue for the Rays today won't be at the plate, rather it will be their own pitching issues. Ryan Yarbrough gets the start for TB and the left-hander has been struggling. His first outing this season was a quality one April 1st but, since then, Yarbrough has a 6.82 ERA in his last 7 outings! This is his 2nd season in the bigs and Yarbrough has a 6.09 ERA in day game action. Here he faces a potent Red Sox team in a hitter-friendly venue and this is unlikely to go well for the Rays southpaw. Prior to yesterday's game staying under the total, the over was 10-4 in Boston's last 14 home games. Overall, the over was on a 6-3 run in the last 9 games for the Red Sox. After being held to just 1 run yesterday, the home team gets their bats back on track Saturday but the Rays match them run for run. The end result? A slugfest early this afternoon at Fenway Park. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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06-07-19 | Pirates v. Brewers OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:10 ET - The Pirates are 17-10 to the over this season when off a win. Pittsburgh is 10-5 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Pirates 6-1 win yesterday stayed under the total but, prior to that one, the over was 24-7-2 in their 33 prior games. Pittsburgh is starting Rookie Davis in this one and this will be his first start since the 2017 season. Out of the bullpen he has a 5.87 ERA this season. Milwaukee, just like Pittsburgh, is off a victory in which they allowed only 1 run yesterday. However, though that game stayed under the total, the over was 5-1 in the Brewers 6 prior games. Also, Brandon Woodruff gets the start in this one and the Pirates are proving to be a nemesis for him. The Milwaukee right-hander has allowed 12 earned runs in 9 innings spanning his two career starts against the Pirates and that includes getting hammered by them on Saturday. Giving Pittsburgh a quick "second look" at him here is unlikely to help matters for Woodruff. He won't be fooling many sticks in this one. The over is 5-1 in Woodruff's last 6 home starts. The over is 3-1 this season when the Brewers are a home favorite in a money line range of -175 to -250. The over trending for each of these teams resumes in a big way on Friday night at Miller Park. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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06-07-19 | Yankees v. Indians OVER 9 | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - I got burned by both these teams yesterday and now they are matched up and I expect some payback based on this pitching match-up. I had the Yankees over and despite 6 runs by the top of the 4th I lost that pick yesterday. I had the Indians and they lost 5-4 in a frustrating effort versus the Twins yesterday. Look for both teams to help me out today as they crush these pitchers. The Yankees are starting Domingo German and he was red hot for an extended stretch but he certainly has cooled of late. He has a 10.38 ERA in his last two starts. Zach Plesac gets the start for the Indians and he has been great in the first two starts of his MLB career. However, he now faces a Yankees team that has scored an average of 7 runs per game their last 11 road games. Tremendous consistency for the Yanks lineup away from home too as they have scored 6 or more runs in 10 of those 11 road games! The Indians are 7-4 to the over in their last 11 games and they have scored an average of 5 runs per game during this 11-game stretch. Even including yesterday's under, the Yankees are an incredible 20-6 to the over in road games this season. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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06-06-19 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - Yesterday's game flew over the total and that game included the Blue Jays crushing the Yankees bullpen. Homers were aplenty in yesterday's games and I expect more of the same tonight. Toronto's J.A. Happ faces his former team here and I am well aware of the fact that he held them to 2 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings when he most faced them last season but he did allowed 7 hits in that start. The Blue Jays have plenty of confidence at the plate after last night's come from behind victory. The issue for Toronto, after scoring 11 runs last night, will be trying to stop the Yankees lineup from crushing them. That is a concern for certain with journeyman Edwin Jackson on the mound. The veteran right-hander has been a disaster since his first start last month. In 4 starts this season he has compiled a 13.22 ERA and been hit at a .390 clip! These are horrific numbers and unlikely to improve against a Yankees lineup that has scored an average of 6.7 runs per game in the 16 games since mid-May. The Blue Jays have now scored 25 runs in their last 3 home games as they continue to pound the ball at Rogers Centre. The over is an incredible 20-5-2 in Yankees road games this season. The over is 7-1-1 in the Blue Jays last 9 home games. Look for more of the same in this one! 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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06-05-19 | Braves v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - The Braves won 12-5 yesterday at Pittsburgh. That was the 5th straight Atlanta game to go over the total. As for the Pirates, the over is now 14-3-1 in their last 18 games. In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs Pittsburgh is 7-1 to the over this season. The Pirates, overall, are a fantastic 19-9 to the over in home games on the season. Atlanta is scoring an average of 6 runs per game in their last 11 games. The Pirates have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 13 games. Pittsburgh's bullpen ERA ranks them as one of the worst in the majors. The Braves bullpen ERA ranks them only in the middle of the pack. In terms of starting pitching for this match-up, Atlanta is going with Kevin Gausman and the Braves right-hander is off a very poor outing. While one would think he should be in full bounce back mode here, the reality is that Gausman has an 8.31 ERA since late April and so getting back on track, particularly on the road, is not an automatic here. As for the Pirates, they are starting Joe Musgrove. The Pittsburgh right-hander is off a very rough month of May. Musgrove had an 8.10 ERA and was hit at a .302 clip in the month of May. That doesn't bode well for now facing a red hot Braves lineup. Considering all of the above, there should be runs early, often and throughout this contest. Look for the over to improve to 6-0 in Atlanta's last 6 games. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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06-05-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 3:40 ET - The first two games of this series have stayed under the total but the Dodgers have remained red hot and yesterday's game just barely missed going over the total. With their 9-0 win Tuesday, Los Angeles is 11-1 their last 12 games. LA has scored an average of 7 runs per game in the 11 victories during this hot streak. The Diamondbacks, prior to this series, had scored an average of 7 runs per game in their previous 10 games. That said, after being shut out yesterday and scoring just one run Monday, Arizona bounces back big Wednesday afternoon. Against the Dodgers Kenta Maeda, the Dbacks crushed 3 homers in his most recent start against them. That was in late March. In Maeda's prior start against Arizona, they got to him for 5 runs in less than 3 innings of work. Also, those two starts were at Dodger Stadium but now they get him at home. The over is 5-1 in Maeda's 6 road starts this season and he has a 5.64 ERA away from home on the year. The Diamondbacks are starting rookie Jon Duplantier in this one. He made his first ever MLB start last week against the Mets and he allowed 3 earned runs on 6 hits in just 5 innings of work. Now Duplantier faces a much tougher test here and I expect the Dodgers to pound him. As a road favorite of -125 to -175, LA games are 10-6 to the over this season. 8* OVER the total in Arizona |
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06-04-19 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -114 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:15 ET - This total opened up at a 9 but has dropped to an 8.5 in a number of shops as of early Tuesday morning. This is offering excellent line value with the over. The wind will be blowing out toward left-center in this one and there is reason to believe that both starting pitchers will struggle in this one. The Reds Luis Castillo has given up 11 hits and walked 7 in the 8 innings spanning his last two starts. Though he has had recent success against the Cardinals, the right-hander's current form suggests this will be a tough night for him. St Louis is at home and their lineup is very familiar with him. Castillo will be opposed by southpaw Genesis Cabrera of the Cards. The left-hander struggled in his MLB debut last week and that was against a Phillies lineup that has been struggling badly for weeks now! That is not a good sign for Cabrera as now he faces a Reds team that has been red hot. Another sign that points to struggling results being likely here is the fact that Cabrera had a 6.35 ERA at the AAA level this season before being called up. This is a guy that needs a lot more seasoning before he is ready to faced MLB hitters. I look for him to struggle badly in this one. The Reds have averaged 6.3 runs per game in their last 11 games and that is even with struggling at the plate in their 2 most recent games as they faced Fedde and Scherzer of the Nationals. Compared to those guys, Cabrera will look like he is throwing batting practice to the Cincinnati hitters in this one. The over is 4-0 in the Reds last 4 road games. The over is 32-19 when the Cardinals are playing after a day off. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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06-04-19 | Twins v. Indians OVER 9 | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Tuesday MLB 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET - Minnesota's Devin Smeltzer is off a very successful MLB debut but, so often, a rookie hurler will struggle in their 2nd start. That is what I am calling for here as now Smeltzer is on the road and facing an Indians team that has been swinging the bats a little better of late. Cleveland is off a shutout loss Sunday but, prior to that, the Tribe had scored an average of 6 runs per game in their 6 prior games. The weather is going to be very nice in Cleveland today and the wind is expected to be blowing out toward right-center field for this one as well. Behind Smeltzer is a Twins bullpen that has a 5.49 ERA in road games this season. The good news for Minnesota fans is they should crush Indians pitching in this one. Shane Bieber gets the start for the home team in this one and he gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start. The right-hander allowed 3 homers in that start and now he faces a Twins team that crushed his offerings last season. Bieber has a decent ERA against Minnesota in his 3 career starts but he has been very lucky as the Twins have hit him at a .342 clip! The Twins enter this game red hot as they have won 15 of their last 18 games and their potent lineup has led the way. Minnesota is scoring an average of 7.6 runs per game during this 18-game stretch. The Twins lineup has plenty of confidence against Bieber and, as a result, this match-up has slug-fest written all over it. The over is 7-3 this season when Minnesota is playing after a day off and the Twins are also 19-9-2 to the over in road games this season! 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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06-03-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -114 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 9:40 ET - Walker Buehler is off a rough start last week versus the Mets. The Dodgers right-hander allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings. In his most recent start against the Diamondbacks, earlier this season, he allowed 5 earned runs in only 3 innings. As for Arizona starter Robbie Ray, he is also off a rough start. The Diamonbacks southpaw gave up 5 runs (4 earned) in less than 5 innings of work against the Rockies. Ray has been having issues with command and he also walked 5 against the Dodgers in just 5 innings when he faced the earlier this season. LA demolished the Phillies yesterday to wrap up a sweep of Philadelphia! The Dodgers have won 9 of their last 10 games and scored an average of 7 runs per game during this latest hot streak as they continue to play like the best team in baseball. The over is 10-3 in Dodgers road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The over is 12-6 in divisional games for Los Angeles this season. As for the Diamondbacks, they are 17-10 to the over in divisional games this season. Arizona is off a 7-1 win yesterday and they have scored an average of 7 runs per game in their last 10 games. So you've got a pair of hot lineups matched up here and they are also familiar with the pitchers they'll be facing in this one. Couple that with a total posted at 8.5 runs and we've got great value. Each team just needs to get to 4 runs and we're guaranteed of a win as then the game has to end with at least a 5-4 final. 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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06-02-19 | Marlins v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins @ 6:10 ET - Of course these are not the most impressive lineups in baseball by any stretch of the imagination. However, I like the fact that the Marlins exploded for 9 runs in yesterday's game, the Padres front-end of their lineup is solid, and this total is as low as a 7.5 in big books as of early game day morning. San Diego, prior to yesterday's loss, had won 7 of their last 10 games. In the Padres 7 victories, they averaged 6.4 runs per game. They can bounce back here while I look for the Marlins to build off yesterday's 9-run outburst. Yes, San Diego's Matt Strahm has strong numbers this season but his fastball velocity has decreased since getting moved up into the starting rotation for the Padres this season. Trevor Richards gets the start for Miami here and he is off a great start. However, the right-hander previously allowed 21 hits in the 17 innings spanning his 3 prior starts. Also, Richards has allowed 21 hits in 14 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 road starts. He allowed 4 or more earned runs in 2 of those 3 road outings! Look for the over to improve to 7-3 in San Diego's Sunday games this season. Also, this total is likely to move back up to an 8 today and the over is 11-5 this season in Padres games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The Marlins bullpen has a 5.24 ERA this season and that ranks them 2nd to dead last in the National League so far this season. Petco Park is known as a pitchers park but it is a little more hitter-friendly in day games and this one gets under one at 3 PM local time. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
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06-02-19 | Blue Jays v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #929 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 3:10 ET - Yesterday's game stayed well under the total but, based on the pitching match-up for this one Sunday, look for a much different result. Antonio Senzatela gets the call for the Rockies and he is off a solid start but he pitched in cold weather conditions which certainly worked in his favor against the hitters. Now he is pitching on a warm afternoon in Denver with the temperatures possibly reaching the 80 degree mark. The ball will be carrying very well at Coors Field and these are the type of days we often see games top out in the 15 to 18 run range in Colorado. Look for a wild one. Though Senzatela's most recent start stayed under the total, the over was 6-1 in his 7 prior starts. Though he allowed just 2 earned runs in 6 innings in that outing, Senzatela was fortunate as he allowed 9 hits in those six frames! Prior to that outing, Senzatela had compiled an 8.69 ERA in his 4 prior starts! The Blue Jays will have Aaron Sanchez on the mound and the right-hander conditions to have trouble with blister issues on the fingers of his throwing hand. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 road start Sanchez has made. The Toronto righty has allowed 18 hits in the 10 innings spanning his last 3 starts away from home. Sanchez has a 5.29 ERA in his last 6 starts overall. The over is on a 32-17 run in Blue Jays interleague games. The over is 20-9 in Rockies games when they are off a win this season. 8* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-01-19 | Royals v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals @ 4:05 ET - The Rangers Lance Lynn is off back to back strong starts against the Mariners including one at home. However, prior to that solid outing against Arlington, Lynn had struggled at home this season. In his first 3 home starts of the season, Lynn was rocked for 14 earned runs on 25 hits in 17 and 1/3 innings. On a warm afternoon at Globe Life Park in Arlington the ball will be carrying very well. The Royals will have Homer Bailey on the mound for this one. The KC right-hander is off a respectable (albeit short) outing against the White Sox in his most recent start. However, prior to that, he had allowed 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his 6 previous starts. That included getting roughed up for 6 runs (5 earned) in just 4 and 1/3 innings recently. That was at Kansas City and Bailey now faces them at Texas where their lineup tends to be even tougher on opposing pitchers. The over, prior to the White Sox game, was on a 4-1 run in Bailey's starts. The over is 26-16 this season in Royals games against right-handed starters. Kansas City is now off back to back unders but they haven't had 3 straight unders in over two weeks. This game belongs to the hitters! 8* OVER the total in Texas |
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05-31-19 | Brewers v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:05 ET - These teams scored a bunch of runs early yesterday and then also got to the bullpens later. That is not a surprise as the Pirates bullpen has been among the worst in the majors this season while the Brewers rank only in the middle of the pack. With that said, a repeat today (and another high-scoring game) is quite likely. Of course same bullpens involved and Friday also features two struggling starting pitchers. Jhoulys Chacin gets the call for the Brewers and Chris Archer gets the call for the Pirates. The Pittsburgh right-hander has not lasted more than 5 innings in any of his last 5 starts and he has compiled an 8.74 ERA during this stretch. The Milwaukee right-hander has a 6.30 ERA in his last two starts and has allowed 15 hits in the 10 innings spanning those two outings. The over is 11-2-1 in the Pirates last 14 games after last night's game soared over the total. In the month of May, only 6 of Pittsburgh's 28 games have gone over the total. In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the Pirates are 4-0 to the over this season. The Bucs have scored 5 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games. The Brewers have scored an average of 6.4 runs per game in their last 7 games. Also, the weather conditions are projected to be favorable at PNC Park on Friday evening. All signs point to another game getting to double digits in runs here. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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05-30-19 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:10 ET - It has been a very cool May in Denver but temperatures today will rise to near 70 degrees and hitter-friendly Coors Field also sees the ball carry even better in day games! This one starts at 1 PM local time and should involve plenty of fireworks from both lineups. The Diamondbacks Taylor Clarke is a rookie right-hander whom will be making his first ever start at Coors Field. More often than not rookies get pummeled in their first experience here. I feel this is especially likely with Clarke because he has faced the Giants and Rays in his only two MLB starts. Both those teams in the bottom third of the majors for runs scored this season. Now Clarke faces a Rockies team that is #1 in the majors for scoring at home as they average 6.0 runs per game in games played in Denver. The issue for Colorado today is their own starting pitcher is likely to struggle too. Kyle Freeland is having a very rough season. The Rockies southpaw has an 8.65 ERA in home starts this season. Those 5 outings are 4-1 to the over and that included Freeland getting pummeled by these same Diamondbacks for 8 earned runs in 6 innings earlier this month. He allowed 3 homers in that start and also allowed 2 homers in his most recent home start as well. Freeland was pounded by the Orioles in that start and I look for more big hits in this one as his struggles continue against a divisional foe whose lineup is very familiar with his offerings! The over is 13-6-2 in Arizona's games against left-handed starters this season. The over is 11-6-1 in Rockies day games this season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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05-29-19 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 10 | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 12:35 ET - There are thunderstorms rolling through the Cincinnati area this morning but they should get this game in today even if the start time is a little delayed. The situation, in my opinion, is too strong to pass up on even with the potential risk of rain. With yesterday's 11-6 Reds win, the over is now 6-0-1 in Cincinnati's last 7 games and 10-1-1 in the Pirates last 12 games. Both teams have been hitting the ball very well over the past week and two struggling starting pitchers are slated to take the mound for this one. Pittsburgh southpaw Steven Brault has a 9.39 ERA and 3 homers allowed in his two starts this season. Cincinnati right-hander Anthony DeSclafani has a 9.25 ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed 3 homers in EACH of his last two starts! Also, DeSclafani has struggled against the Pirates going 0-3 and allowing a total of 5 homers in his last 3 starts against Pittsburgh. He did not get past the 5th inning in any of those 3 starts. The Reds bullpen has been strong this season but has had some sub-par efforts recently. As for the Pirates bullpen they rank as one of the worst in the National League with a 4.92 ERA thus far on the year. Only 5 of Pittsburgh's 26 games so far this month have resulted in an under! Temperatures are expected to get into the 80s in Cincy today with the wind blowing out toward left at a rather strong clip. Great American Ball Park plays out very well for hitters in conditions like these and this is particularly true in day games here. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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05-28-19 | Cubs v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:10 ET - Yesterday's series opener went over the total and that snapped a stretch for the Astros that had seen them trending under in a big way. I wouldn't be surprised to now see Houston trending toward the over for a bit. Based on the pitching match-up today it looks great for another over. The Cubs are starting Jon Lester and he is struggling badly. The veteran southpaw has allowed 12 runs (9 earned) in just 8 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, the Chicago lefty has been hit very hard and has allowed 34 hits in the 21 innings spanning his last 4 starts. In the first two starts of this 4-game stretch Lester managed to escape damage but, as expected, the fact he has become very hittable has caught up to him as he has been rocked in his last two starts. As for Astros starter Corbin Martin, he had a great MLB debut but has struggled ever since. In his last two starts Martin has been fortunate he has not allowed even more earned runs than he has because he has struggled badly. The young right-hander has given up 11 hits plus walked 5 in just 7 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. The Cubs have gone over the total in 6 straight games and 9 of their last 11 games! Chicago has averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this strong stretch at the plate. Even though Kris Bryant is likely out again today, Jason Heyward is expected to be back in the lineup today. Keep in mind both missed yesterday's game and it still flew over the total. As for the Astros sticks, they should enjoy facing Lester as lets not forget he got hit at a .303 clip after the All Star break last year and he is showing signs those struggles have carried into this year. He has been hit at well over a .300 clip in his last 4 starts. Also, though the Astros pen has been a strength this season, the Cubs pen has blown 11 of 21 save opportunities! 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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05-28-19 | Nationals v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals @ 7:20 ET - Many will look for a pitchers duel here but, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of this one and will take advantage of the low total posted on this game. While it is true that Stephen Strasburg has great numbers in his recent starts this month, it is also true that the Braves have given him trouble. He is 0-2 in his last two starts against Atlanta and both were last summer. In those two outings against the Braves, Strasburg gave up 10 runs (9 earned) in 11 and 1/3 innings of work. Now as for the other side of this pitching match-up, it is also true that Max Fried has been pitching well not only this month but truly this entire season. However, the southpaw now faces the team that is leading the National League in team batting average (.292) against left-handed pitching this season. Now lets talk about the bullpens. The Nationals bullpen has the worst ERA in all of baseball this season as they have an EAR north of 7 on the year which is scary bad of course! As for the Braves bullpen, they haven't been much better and this is particularly true at home where Atlanta's bullpen has a 5.11 ERA this season. It will be a hot and steamy day in Atlanta today and the ball should be jumping off the bats this evening! The Nationals had a rare under yesterday after going 8-3 to the over in their 11 prior games. The Braves were off yesterday and they are 7-0-1 to the over this season when playing after a day off. More of the same expected here. 8* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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05-27-19 | Indians v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Indians @ 4:05 ET - Rick Porcello has been pitching surprisingly well for Boston. However, the Red Sox right-hander faces a tough match-up here as the Indians gave him some trouble last season. Also, it will be a warm afternoon at Fenway Park this afternoon and the wind direction is a little uncertain as of early this morning but there are some forecast models showing it could be blowing out toward left field at a decent clip. With mild temperatures an afternoon game at Fenway Park can get quite crazy and, long-term, Porcello is known for giving up the long ball. The Indians, overall, have struggled at the plate for much of this season but this is a favorable match-up for them. Porcello has struggled more against lefties this season and he also has been roughed up in day games this year. Of course this is an afternoon game and, also, the Indians lineup is loaded with left-handed bats and switch-hitters. As for the Cleveland pitcher in this one, Jefry Rodriguez will be facing the Red Sox for the first time in his career. I don't expect it to go well at all. The right-hander is 0-2 in his last two starts and he allowed 3 homers in these outings plus gave up 4 earned runs in each outing. He's facing a Boston lineup that is known for pounding the ball when at home. Look for the over to improve to 5-1 this season in Cleveland's Monday games. I am well aware that Rodriguez starts have trended under all season long but there is a reason this total will get steamed today by the sharps. Its all about the match-ups! Look for the over to improve to 9-2 in Porcello's starts this season. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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05-27-19 | Tigers v. Orioles OVER 9 | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Monday 8* OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers @ 1:05 ET - The Orioles are 7-0 to the over in their last 7 games. The Tigers are off an under yesterday in which they were held to just 3 runs but they entered that game having averaged a dozen hits per game over their 4 prior games. In all 4 of those games Detroit reached double digits in hits. The fact is that the two starting pitchers in this game are unlikely to pitch deep into this one and this match-up also features the two worst bullpens in the American League. The Tigers pen has a 5.48 ERA and the Orioles pen has a 6.09 ERA so far this season. Detroit starter Daniel Norris was knocked out in the 3rd inning in his lone start at Camden Yards last year. Baltimore starter Gabriel Ynoa will be making his first start since 2017 when he takes the mound to get this one underway today. Ynoa has pitched in 28 games (7 starts) at the MLB level and he has compiled a 5.09 ERA and been hit at a .303 clip. In other words, it is unlikely he is going to come up big in this start! The over is 16-8-1 in Orioles home games this season. As for Norris' outings, there have only been 2 unders in his last 6 starts. The Tigers southpaw averages only 5 and 1/3 innings per starts. Ynoa is not use to starting either. That means plenty of the two worst bullpens in the AL should be seen in this game also. 8* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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05-26-19 | Orioles v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #979 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore Orioles @ 3:10 ET - The Rockies are starting German Marquez here and, like most Colorado pitchers, he is much better on the road than we he is at home. In his starts at Coors Field, Marquez got hit at .284 clip last season while compiling a 4.74 ERA. This season the numbers are even uglier as the Rockies right-hander has been hit at a .339 clip and compiled a 5.34 ERA in his starts at Coors Field. The over is a perfect 6-0 in the Orioles last 6 games and they have scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. The over is 5-1 in the Rockies last 6 games and they have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game during this stretch. Coming off a 9-6 loss yesterday, look for the Colorado sticks to jump all over David Hess. The Baltimore right-hander leads the majors in home runs allowed and now makes his first ever start at Coors Field. This is not a good scenario for Hess! This is particularly true on a warm afternoon in Denver with low humidity as the ball is likely to be jumping off the bats. Hess is 1-6 with a 6.75 ERA this season and he has allowed 17 homers in 10 games (9 starts). Last year Hess went 1-7 with a 5.20 ERA on the road. Hess had a 6.06 ERA pre-all star break last year and is struggling even more in the first half of this season. A trip to Coors Field certainly is unlikely to result in improvement for him. Last but certainly not least, the Orioles bullpen ranks as the worst in the American League. The Rockies bullpen, as you would expect, struggles more at home where they have an ugly 5.47 ERA on the season. In other words, runs early often and throughout this matinee affair at Coors Field. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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05-26-19 | Phillies v. Brewers UNDER 9 | 1-9 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #956 Sunday 8* UNDER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 2:10 ET - This one has the makings of a pitchers duel. The Phillies Zach Eflin has allowed 1 earned run or less in 4 of his last 5 starts. The Brewers Brandon Woodruff has allowed a total of just 5 earned runs in his last 5 starts and that has spanned 30 innings of work! This included shutting Philadelphia for 6 innings of shutout work at Citizens Bank Park earlier this month. As for Eflin, the only tough start he has had in his last 5 outings did come against Milwaukee but he pitched better than 4 earned runs in 5 innings would lead you to believe. He struck out 7 in 5 innings and will be on top of his game for the rematch. Keep in mind, the Brewers have been held to 4 runs or less in 5 of their last 6 games. In fact, in those 5 games Milwaukee has averaged only 2.4 runs per game. Look for this battle to result in the 5th under in the Brewers last 7 games. The Phillies bullpen ranks among the best in the majors on the season and I don't expect the Brewers bullpen to be needed much in this one with the way Woodruff has been pitching recently. Pitchers duel at Miller Park. 8* UNDER the total in Milwaukee |
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05-24-19 | Padres v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #975 Friday 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres @ 7:05 ET - The Blue Jays are coming off a 4 game set against the Red Sox in which there was not a single under. The high-scoring trend should continue here as Toronto hands the ball to Trent Thornton for this start. The right-hander has struggled in his starts at Rogers Centre and has a 9.00 ERA in his last four starts in Toronto. The Blue Jays have scored an average of 5 runs per game their last 7 games. They'll be facing the Padres Joey Lucchesi. The San Diego southpaw has struggled on the road this season. Lucchesi has given up 13 runs (12 earned) in his 13 and 1/3 innings away from home on the year. San Diego's most recent road game stayed under the total but, prior to that, the over over was on a 4-1 run in Padres road games. San Diego was off yesterday and the over is 4-1-1 this season when the Padres are playing after an off day. 8* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-24-19 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Friday 8* OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins @ 7:05 ET - Miami is really hot right now and rallied for a 5-2 win at Detroit yesterday. The Marlins have won 6 straight games and have scored an average of 5 runs per game during this hot streak. They should have no trouble with the offerings of Kyle McGowin as the Nationals right-hander has very little MLB experience and is only making this start because the pitching-thin Nationals are dealing with injuries. Speaking of pitching-thin, the Washington bullpen blew yet another game yesterday and their bullpen ERA ranks them dead last in the majors. Of course those bullpen struggles should also help this game get over the total as McGowin is unlikely to work deep into this game. The Nationals are 6-2 to the over in their last 8 games. The Nats did score 4 runs in yesterday's loss and Washington is now back home where they have scored 5 or more runs in 5 straight games! The struggling pitching has led to the Nationals allowed 5 or more runs in 9 of their last 11 games and in 8 of those 9 games the Nats allowed 6 or more runs. The Marlins Pablo Lopez is unlikely to slow down the Nationals as he has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his 5 road starts this season. 8* OVER the total in Washington |
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05-23-19 | White Sox v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - Lucas Giolito has surprisingly good numbers this season. But lets look at who he has faced recently. The White Sox right-hander, in 4 of his last 5 starts, has faced the Blue Jays twice plus the Royals and the Indians. None of those teams are known for their prowess at the plate. Note that Giolito's first start this season was also against the light-hitting Royals and was also a strong start. So how has he fared in his starts against quality teams this season? Giolito's other 3 starts have seen him allow 14 runs (12 earned) in 14 and 1/3 innings. Thursday he'll be facing an Astros lineup that is one of the best in baseball plus he is catching the Astros a day after his White Sox team upset Gerrit Cole and company in embarrassing 9-4 fashion. In other words, Houston is highly likely to be zoned in and respond well today at the plate. The issue for the Astros today will be their young starting pitcher Corbin Martin. The rookie right-hander struggled badly in his 2nd start after having a very successful start in his MLB starting debut. This is normal for a rookie pitcher. They are going to encounter early problems as they get adjusted to the MLB level. Martin is very likely to struggle Thursday against a White Sox team that is surging with confidence at the plate after putting up 9 runs yesterday. The over is 10-4-1 in Houston's games against teams with a losing record this season. In the 7 games this season with the Astros as a home favorite of -175 to -250, only 2 of the 7 have resulted in an under. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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05-22-19 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees are red hot at the plate and, in theory, could win this play for us practically all by themselves just with their own bats! Sound too good to be true? Consider that the Yankees have now won 3 straight games and scored at least 10 runs in all 3 of those victories! Also consider that New York will be facing a struggling Orioles starting pitcher, Daniel Straily, and a Baltimore bullpen that ranks dead last in the American League. The Orioles relief work this season has compiled a 6.12 ERA. The Yankees bullpen has been much better than that but still only ranks in the middle of the pack for bullpen ERA this season. As for the starting pitchers in this match-up, Straily is 0-3 with an 11.78 ERA in his 5 home appearances (4 starts) this season. Opponents are hitting a ridiculous .388 against Straily at Camden Yards and now he faces what has been the hottest lineup in the league over their last 3 games! As for Yankees starter CC Sabathia, he made 4 starts against the Orioles last season and walked away with just one victory! In those outings the southpaw compiled a 5.14 ERA and allowed 5 homers in just 21 innings of work. The veteran lefty is winless with a 4.70 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. The Orioles certainly are not a great hitting team but they have had success against Sabathia and they do tend to be stronger at home than on the road. With scoring 4 runs yesterday the Orioles have scored between 4 and 7 runs in 4 of their last 6 games. Also, when the Orioles are off a game in which they allowed double digits in runs, the over is now 6-1 this season! The Yankees are an incredible 15-4 to the over this season in road games! More of the same expected here! 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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05-22-19 | A's v. Indians OVER 9.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Oakland A's @ 1:10 ET - I know 9.5 seems like a big number for a total at Progressive Field but, keep in mind, this is an afternoon game and temperatures are warming into the 70s and the wind will be blowing out. Also, with their 5-3 win yesterday, the Athletics have won 5 straight games and they are hot at the plate (even without Khris Davis) as they've scored an average of 7.8 runs per game during this 5-game streak. The Indians, even with scoring only 3 runs in yesterday's loss, have averaged 6.4 runs per game their last 7 games overall. Also, Cleveland is 5-3 in their last 8 home games and the Tribe has scored an average of 5.8 runs per game during this 8-game stretch. The A's are starting Freddie Montas here and he is off a great start at Detroit but he actually had been hit quite hard in 3 of his 4 prior starts and that included an outing against the Indians where he allowed 8 hits in 6 innings. Jefry Rodriguez gets the start for the home side here and, like Montas, he is also giving an opponent a quick second look as he faced the A's recently. In that start at Oakland Rodriguez had as many walks as strikeouts and he allowed 3 earned runs in 6 innings. In his next (and most recent) start, Rodriguez allowed 4 earned runs against the worst team (Baltimore) in the American League. You can see why I am expecting Rodriguez to struggle against this surging Oakland team. I know the Indians bullpen has been strong this season but the A's bats have been so hot and, as for the Athletics pen, they rank only in the middle of the pack this season. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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05-21-19 | Rockies v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:05 ET - High temperatures will be close to 70 degrees in Pittsburgh today and both of these teams were off yesterday. That means both lineups should be fully stacked and in good shape here and we've got a very low total to work with here. The reason for the low total makes sense because it is based on the long-term reputation of both German Marquez and Chris Archer. However, the low total is also creating a ton of value when you consider the fact that both Marquez and Archer have been struggling plus the fact that both of these teams have been trending over for an extended stretch! The over is 12-4-1 in the month of May in Pirates games. Also, the over is 16-4-1 in the Rockies last 21 games! Colorado has scored an average of 6.3 runs per game their last 9 games. Pittsburgh has scored an average of 5.1 runs per game their last 8 games. The Rockies Marquez has a 6.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and all three of those outings resulted in an over. The Colorado right-hander has allowed 20 hits in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts. The Pirates Archer has a 10.66 ERA in his last 3 starts and each of his last two outings have resulted in a over. The Pittsburgh right-hander has given up 13 runs (12 earned) in less than 8 innings of work spanning his last two starts. When playing after a day off the Rockies have had only 2 unders in 8 occurrences this season. The Pirates are a long-term 28-16 to the over when playing after a day off. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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05-20-19 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-7 | Win | 101 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - These lineups are very familiar with the pitchers they are facing in this one. The Yankees JA Happ has already faced the Orioles 3 times this season! In those starts the Yanks southpaw has allowed 5 homers in only 13 and 2/3 innings of work! The Orioles Andrew Cashner will be facing the Yankees for the third time already this season. The Baltimore right-hander has been rocked for 8 earned runs in 10 innings of work against the Yanks this season. I am well aware of the fact that Cashner was stronger at Yankee Stadium last week and has some decent home numbers this season, but all this repetition for these pitchers against the same hitters so frequently is going to lead to troubles tonight. It is going to be very hitter-friendly conditions in this one as the weather continues to warm along the east coast in what has been a later spring than usual this year. Note that 16 of the last 22 meetings between these teams (including all 3 this season!) have gone over the total. The Yankees are 13-4 to the over in road games this season. As a home dog in a range of +125 to +175, the Orioles are 8-4 to the over this season. More of the same expected Monday as note that the O's also have the worst bullpen in the American League with a 5.96 ERA on the season. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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05-19-19 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 1:10 ET - It will be another hitter-friendly afternoon at a very hitter-friendly venue on Sunday afternoon. No need to rest any hitters here either as both teams have an off-day tomorrow. After the Reds got shutout Friday and the Dodgers got shutout Saturday, look for both teams to finally contribute well to the total in Sunday's match-up. Yes, the Dodgers Hyun-Jin Ryu gives the appearance (from his last 3 starts) that he is practically unhittable, note that this match-up will play out much differently. First off all 3 of those starts were at pitcher-friendly venues - 2 at Dodger Stadium and 1 at San Francisco against the punch-less Giants. In his last 3 starts against the Reds, Ryu has a 5.79 ERA and has allowed 22 hits (including 5 homers) in just 14 innings of work. The Dodgers southpaw gave up 4 earned runs in 7 and 1/3 innings spanning his first two road starts this season. He'll be tested big time this afternoon at hitter-friendly Cincy on a warm afternoon with the wind blowing out to left at a strong clip. The Dodgers should also pound Tanner Roark. He is on the fade right now and gave up 8 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start. Simply put, he was lucky the damage wasn't worse in terms of earned runs and that means his status as a "fade candidate" is currently flying "under the radar". We can step in and take advantage. Roark's recent stats were skewed by facing the A's at Oakland and facing the light-hitting Giants. Note that in his other starts this season he has been consistently hit quite hard and I look for the Dodgers to light him up after being shutout yesterday. This is a contrarian play compared to what the markets are seeing and that is precisely the type of play I love the most as we get the best value. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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05-18-19 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 4:10 ET - The Dodgers delivered the shutout win last night. The over is 20-11 when Los Angeles is off a game in which they shut out their opponent. I look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season in LA day games. The weather will be hot and steamy in Cincinnati this afternoon with the winds blowing out toward left center. These are the types of weather days where Great American Ball Park (known as a very hitter-friendly venue) plays out particularly well for the hitters. Even though Walker Buehler has good numbers this season the over is 3-1 in his road starts as he has compiled a 5.40 ERA away from home thus far. Buehler has had success in his two career starts against the Reds but both those were at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Now with Cincinnati getting a shot at him at home and with the fact they just faced him last month, I look for the Reds sticks to perform much better today. Keep in mind, Cincinnati had scored an average of 7 runs per game in their 7 home games prior to being shutout last night. As for the Dodgers bats, they have scored 6 runs in 3 of their last 4 games and should enjoy success against Tyler Mahle in this one. LA just faced him last month and got to him for 4 earned runs on 11 hits in just 6 innings of work. The only other start Mahle has against the Dodgers saw him walk 4 batters in just 5 innings of work. You can see why success is unlikely for the Reds right-hander today. Cincy is off rare back to back unders at home as the over was on a 6-1 run in the Reds 7 home games prior to this. All signs point to both teams having plenty of success at the plate in this one. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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05-18-19 | Rays v. Yankees OVER 8 | 2-1 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Saturday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 1:05 ET - These pitchers just matched up Sunday in Tampa Bay and both the Rays Blake Snell and the Yankees Masahiro Tanaka had great starts. However, giving these lineups a quick second look on Saturday coupled with the fact the venue shifts north to the Bronx means I am expecting a much different result in this one. The last time Snell pitched away from home he got rocked for 7 earned runs just 3 innings at Kansas City. Tanaka allowed 9 hits in 6 innings the last time he faced the Rays at Yankee Stadium. Also, in his most recent start against Tampa prior to Sunday's gem, the Yankees right-hander allowed 4 runs (3 earned) in only 4 innings of work! His two prior starts against the Rays (that one at Tampa and the most recent one in the Bronx) have seen Tanaka allow 15 hits in 10 innings against the Rays. We've got a low total to work with here (currently 8 runs) and the over is 5-2 in Yankees Saturday games this season. Also, the Rays have only played 7 games this season against teams with a winning record and yesterday's under was just the 2nd in those 7 games. Look for the bats to come to life this afternoon with hitter-friendly conditions at Yankee Stadium. The late runs scored in yesterday's game also show that both bullpens could be susceptible to some damage again this afternoon as well. 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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05-16-19 | Rangers v. Royals OVER 10 | Top | 16-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers @ 1:15 ET - Perfect set up here in many ways. Yesterday's game was a 6-1 Rangers win that stayed under the total so that is helping to keep this total off the radar of the betting markets as, to many, a 10 may look too big. The fact is that this should be an absolutely slugfest. The temperatures will be in the 80s this afternoon in Kansas City. The wind will be blowing out at Kauffman Stadium. The Rangers bullpen (4.87 ERA) and the Royals bullpen (4.59 ERA) both rank among the worst in the majors! As for the starting pitching match-up here we have Lance Lynn for Texas and Homer Bailey for KC. The fact is that Lynn has seen his better years at the major league level. He has a 5.48 ERA this season and a 5.13 ERA in his career starts against the Royals. Lynn allowed 3 homers at Houston in his most recent start and this followed an outing where he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings against the Blue Jays. As for Bailey, he is off a rare strong start. Yes, prior to a solid outing against the Phillies, he also was successful but that was against the punch-less Tigers. In his two outings prior to that Bailey gave up 8 earned runs in 7 innings of work. From 2015 to 2018, Bailey was hit at a better than .300 clip all 4 seasons and he compiled an ERA north of 6.00 in those 4 seasons combined. He has trended better than usual early this season but still his overall numbers are not that impressive and you know a regression to the mean is right around the corner. Look for it to begin today in very hitter friendly conditions at Kauffman Stadium. The over is 10-2 in Rangers day games this season. The over is 19-8 this season in Royals games when they are off a loss. KC also is a solid 13-7 to the over in day games. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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05-16-19 | Mets v. Nationals OVER 9 | 6-7 | Win | 102 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs New York Mets @ 1:05 ET - The Mets Zack Wheeler has good numbers so far this season but the fact is that the Nationals have proven to be a tough match-up for him. Wheeler has allowed 11 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work in his two starts against the Nats this season. The Mets lost both of those Wheeler starts and I expect him to struggle again today. Washington will have Anibal Sanchez on the mound for this one. The last time he faced the Mets as a host, Sanchez allowed 4 earned runs in just 4 innings of work. That was last season but also note that he is struggling badly this season. Sanchez is 0-6 with a 5.27 ERA in his 8 starts this season. Yesterday's 5-1 Nationals win stayed under the total but I expect much more out of the Mets sticks in this one considering the pitching match-up. Also, the Nationals rank as the worst bullpen in MLB with a 6.15 ERA and the Mets are also in the bottom third of the league in that category as their bullpen has a 4.44 ERA on the season thus far. As a road favorite of -125 to -175 this season, New York is 5-0 to the over. The Nationals have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 7 games against the Mets and I look for another big game at the plate Thursday. 8* OVER the total in Washington |
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05-15-19 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 3:40 PM ET - This total dropping to a 7.5 has opened up some great value with the over. Of course the total was low to begin with because of Zack Greinke being on the mound for Arizona. Chris Archer goes for Pittsburgh and, though not at Greinke's level, he also is a respected pitcher. However, the key to the value here is the low total combined with a couple other key factors. For one thing, Archer has been out for a couple weeks with right thumb inflammation. I don't expect him to be operating at his highest level in his first start back. He has a 5.73 ERA on the road this season and struggling more away from home is not a new trend either. Entering this season, Archer had a 4.92 ERA away from home in the past 3 seasons combined. Greinke does have a history of success against the Pirates but Pittsburgh has been extra scrappy of late and playing their best ball of the season. I would not be surprised to see them enjoy some moderate success today against Greinke as the Bucs have won 9 of their last 13 games. With yesterday's 6-2 win here at Arizona, the Pirates have scored an average of 5 runs per game in their past 10 games. The Diamondbacks, prior to being held to just 2 runs in yesterday's loss, had averaged scoring 5 runs per game in their past 11 games. The over is a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times the Dbacks were off a game in which they were held to 2 or less runs. The Pirates over was 8-2-1 in May prior to yesterday's game staying under the total. Since April 21st, Pittsburgh has recorded back to back unders only ONE single time. That said, though this may be viewed as a contrarian play here I look for this game to get over the total as the hitters are going to surprise in this one. There are 15 teams in the National League and, in terms of bullpen ERA this season, the Pirates rank 12th and the Diamondbacks rank 13th. We should be in line to get some late inning runs if needed but I do expect some runs early and often in this one. 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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05-15-19 | Angels v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 7-8 | Win | 105 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels @ 1:10 ET - The Twins Jake Odorizzi has been pitching very well. However, now he faces an Angels team that, despite scoring only 3 runs last night, notched double digits in hits for the 5th time in their last 6 games. Los Angeles has averaged 13 hits per game in those 5 games. Don't be surprised if they enjoy some success against Odorizzi on a warm afternoon at Target Field in Minneapolis with the temperatures rising well into the 70s. By the way, the Angels 11 hits yesterday were despite 0 from Mike Trout so you know what is likely coming today. Odorizzi is winless in his last 3 starts against the Angels and he has compiled a 5.71 ERA as they've hit nearly .300 against him. As for LA starter Trevor Cahill, struggles are expected here. The Angels right-hander has an 8.10 ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed 5 homers in just 13 and 1/3 innings spanning those 3 outings. Cahill also is 0-3 in his last 3 starts against the Twins and they have gotten to him for 8 earned runs in only 8 and 1/3 innings! Cahill enters this start with the over having gone 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts overall. Look for that undefeated over trend to make it 6 in a row here in hitter-friendly conditions up north. The Angels have averaged 5.5 runs per game this season in games against right-handed starters and the Twins are in that same range against righties. This one has "double digits" in total runs scored written all "over" it! 8* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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05-14-19 | Rockies v. Red Sox OVER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:10 ET - This total has dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 and I am well aware that the weather will be chilly in Boston tonight and that Chris Sale is off a pair of strong starts. However, the fact is that both of these lineups are currently knocking the cover off the ball and also the Rockies Kyle Freeland has been struggling badly. As for Sale having back to back strong starts, one was against his former team (White Sox) and he reared back for a little extra juice in that one no doubt. The other one was against the miserable and downtrodden free-swinging Orioles. Give him credit for a pair of spectacular starts but lets not forget he has seemed a little "off" for much of the time early this season and now Sale faces a Rockies team that has scored an average of 8.2 runs per game so far in the month of May. That is all because of home games at Coors Field though, right? Nope! Actually Colorado has scored 11 runs in EACH of their two road games this month too. The fact is that the Rockies are a very confident team at the plate right now and, speaking of that, so too is Boston! The Red Sox enter this game having scored an average of 7.8 runs per game in the month of May! You can see why I like this over at 8 runs considering EACH team is averaging 8 runs per game this month! Also, Freeland enters this start with an 8.47 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Red Sox .267 batting average at home is one of the best in the majors. The Rockies .470 slugging percentage against lefties is one of the best in the majors! The over is 8-3 this month in Boston's games and 9-1 this month in Colorado's games. The over is also 12-5 this season when the Rockies are off a win. The over is 32-15 (including 5-2 this season) when the Red Sox are playing after a day off. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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05-14-19 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 8 | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians @ 2:10 ET - This total has dropped from a 9 to an 8 and, while I certainly understand the move, there is no denying that it has opened up great line value for the over. When these pitchers matched up last week I got burned as had Cleveland on the run line and they jumped out to a 5-0 lead through 5 innings but the game was rain-shortened as it ended at the point and we didn't cash our ticket. This time I once again expect the Indians to give the struggling Manny Banuelos all sorts of trouble here but I also fully expect the White Sox, now in their home park, will enjoy some success against Carlos Carrasco. Note that Carrasco is 1-3 with a 7.71 ERA in his road starts this season. The White Sox, with yesterday's 5-2 win, have now scored 5 or more runs in each of their last 3 games. Chicago's Banuelos walked 5 and allowed 8 hits which led the way to 5 earned runs in just 4 and 1/3 innings when he faced this same lineup at Cleveland last week! The White Sox southpaw has an 18.00 ERA in his last two starts. I know each of these teams has been trending under of late but this game is set up well to put an end to that stretch after yesterday's game fell just short of going over. 8* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game |
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05-13-19 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #911 Monday 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - The weather will be chilly this evening in Chicago but we've got a low total to work with here and plenty of reason to count on this one going over the total. The Indians Shane Bieber just faced the White Sox on Wednesday. Though he held them to 3 earned runs Bieber did allow 8 hits in 6 and 1/3 innings. Now Chicago gets a quick second look at him plus the rematch is at Guaranteed Rate Field. As for the lineup of the Tribe, they're also looking forward to a rematch here. The Indians just faced Reynaldo Lopez Wednesday and they were held to 3 earned runs but got to him for 9 hits in 6 innings. The point being that both these pitchers were hit quite hard in their match-up last week but managed to escape major damage. I feel they won't be so fortunate here. Cleveland has averaged 10 hits per game their last 5 games and they scored 5 runs in 3 of those games. The White Sox are off a 3-game set at Toronto that saw them average 5 runs per game. We just need each team to get to 4 runs here and then the game is guaranteed of no less than a 5-4 final. The fact is that with these lineups having just faced these pitchers I expect plenty of runs early and often in this one. Lopez is winless with 7.11 ERA in his 4 career starts against the Indians. Also, Cleveland's Monday games are a perfect 3-0 to the over this season. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game |
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05-13-19 | Angels v. Twins OVER 9 | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Monday 7* OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:40 ET - Jose Berrios is a great pitcher but the Angels possess the type of lineup that can give him trouble. The Twins right-hander has been hit at a .302 clip in his two career starts against Los Angeles. The Angels got to him for 5 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings in last season's match-up and Berrios recorded only 2 strikeouts in the game. Off a quiet day at the plate yesterday the Angels bounce back today as they had scored an average of 9.3 runs per game in their 3 games prior to yesterday. High temperatures will be near 70 degrees today in Minneapolis so finally some nice weather for a Twins home game here and I expect the Minnesota bats to have a big game against Tyler Skaggs. The Angels southpaw is 1-3 with a 6.38 ERA in his 4 road starts this season. The Twins are off a disappointing home loss yesterday but entered yesterday's action having won 8 of 11 home games and scoring an average of 6.9 runs per game in those 8 victories! The over is 4-1 this season in Twins games against left-handed starters. 7* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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05-12-19 | Braves v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
Game of the Week NL Total - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:10 ET - Both starting pitchers have question marks and both are likely to get pounded here. The Diamondbacks are starting Zack Godley. The Arizona right-hander had been removed from the starting rotation after struggling in the majority of his starts this season. Though Godley has shown improvement coming out of the bullpen recently, don't be surprised if the struggles in the starting role quickly resume as there is a difference between a starters mentality and coming out of the pen. Godley has a 6.26 ERA in his 4 career starts versus the Braves. This season Godley has a 7.58 ERA in his six starts. The Braves will be starting Max Fried in this one. He took a line drive off his throwing hand in his most recent start. Don't be surprised if that is in the back of his mind in this start and he doesn't throw as well as usual. Complicating matters for Fried is the fact that the Diamondbacks are crushing southpaws this season. Against left-handed pitching Arizona has a .293 batting average and .524 slugging percentage as they lead the majors in both categories against lefties. Also, both of these bullpens rank in the bottom third of the majors. This will be the Diamondbacks 15th game against a left-handed starter this season and, thus far, only TWO of those games have resulted in an under. That strong trend continues here and, just like yesterday's game, this one gets over the number! 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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05-12-19 | White Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:05 ET - The Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez has good overall numbers early this season but 4 of his starts have come against the A's (twice) and Indians/Tigers once each. Note that Oakland has one of the worst slugging percentages in the league plus Cleveland and Detroit are two of the worst hitting teams in the majors. The point is that the last 3 starts Sanchez has made that weren't against those teams have seen him allow 11 earned runs in 17 innings for a 5.82 ERA. The White Sox are hitting .251 in road games this season which puts them in the top ten in the majors and they have some familiarity with Sanchez. As for Chicago starter Lucas Giolito, his solid start this season also has an asterisk by it in my opinion. He is known for dominating the Royals in his career and struggling against everyone else. This season Giolito has benefited from facing Kansas City twice plus the horribly season-long slumping sticks of the Indians once. In his other 3 starts he has allowed 12 earned runs in 14 and 1/3 innings for a 7.53 ERA. Considering these factors, even though neither the White Sox or Blue Jays have been knocking the cover off the ball of late, I feel we have great value with this total in an American League match-up having dropped from a 9 to an 8.5 as of Sunday morning. Keep in mind, yesterday's 7-2 loss was the 7th time in the last 10 Jays games that they've allowed at least 6 runs! The White Sox are allowing an average of 5.2 runs per game this month. 6-5 game is very possible here but we should see, at the very least, a 5-4 type game. 8* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-11-19 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Mets vs Miami Marlins @ 7:10 ET - On the surface this looks like it should be a pitchers duel. However, so did yesterday's game. On Friday Pablo Lopez (2.00 ERA L3 starts) and Zack Wheeler (2.70 ERA L3 starts) matched up. The result? 13 runs on 25 hits for the two teams and 19 of those hits did come against the two starters. That is part of the reason I am all over (literally!) the low total posted on Saturday's game. Yes, Jacob deGrom has a great reputation as well as some excellent recent numbers but this total is simply too low. Not only might the Mets get 7 runs by themselves but, keep in mind, deGrom has been roughed up in 2 of his 3 home starts this season. He dominate the Marlins earlier this season but Miami now gets another look and they are confident at the plate after pounding out double digits in hits yesterday. They have some hitters in their lineup whom have had some long-term success against deGrom. As for the Mets bats, they should have no trouble with Sandy Alcantara. He has been a very lucky pitcher as he has walked 13 batters in the 15 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts and yet he has a 4.70 ERA in these outings. Certainly it could be much worse and New York (happy to be back home after a lengthy road trip) pounded the ball yesterday and scored 11 runs. Alcantara had success against the Mets last season but he has not been the same pitcher this season. His recent starts have been very shaky even though he has faced the light-hitting Indians twice during this stretch. Alcantara in trouble here based on the way the Mets have been swinging the bats. Also, New York is 5-1 to the over in Saturday games this season and so too are the Marlins. Additionally, Miami has had just 2 unders in their 8 games this season that had a posted total of 7 or less runs. The Mets have had just 6 unders in their 19 night games this season. Take advantage of the low total here as these teams are also both near the bottom of the majors for bullpen ERA as well. 10* OVER the total in New York Mets |
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05-11-19 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners @ 1:05 ET - Give Rick Porcello credit for bouncing back after a rough start to this season. However, a lot of it also had to do with match-ups that were positive ones for him. That said, the Red Sox right-hander now faces a Mariners lineup that has given him plenty of trouble and that includes an ugly outing early this season. Porcello has allowed 8 earned runs in less than 9 innings of work in his last two starts against the Mariners. Those both came at Seattle. The last time he faced the M's as a host, Porcello allowed only 2 earned runs in 6 innings but he did allow 11 hits in that one so he was fortunate to say the least. He is one of the most homer prone pitchers in the majors and allowed 2 in his most recent start Sunday. As for Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez, he is likely to get rocked here. The veteran righty is 1-11 with a 5.89 ERA in his last 18 games on the mound! Facing the Red Sox is unlikely to help matters for Hernandez as he has allowed 16 earned runs in the 15 innings spanning his last 3 starts against Boston and that included getting absolutely clobbered at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are off a huge game at the plate yesterday as they erupted for 14 runs. Boston is now averaging 7.3 runs per game in their last 11 games as they're on a 9-2 hot streak. The Mariners have now been held to just 1 run in back to back games but had previously averaged 7 runs per game in their 4 prior games and I see them getting back on track against a pitcher they've crushed in recent meetings. 8* OVER the total in Boston |
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05-10-19 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners @ 7:10 ET - Fenway Park is well known as a hitters park. When there are favorable weather conditions the advantage to the hitters can actually be quite greatly enhanced. That is certainly expected to be the case Friday evening as the temperatures will be in the 60s and the wind will be blowing out at a good clip. Couple that with two strong lineups and a pair of starting pitchers likely to struggle and you have the perfect scenario for a slugfest. I am well aware of the fact that Erik Swanson has had some good starts for the Mariners but the key is that those came against an Indians team that is struggling badly at the plate early this season. The Seattle right-hander excelled in both starts against the Tribe but note that he got clobbered for 10 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work in his other two starts this season. Now Swanson faces a Red Sox team that has won 8 of its last 10 games. Also, prior to a tight 2-1 win Wednesday, Boston had scored an average of 7 runs per game in their previous 9 games during this hot streak. As for the Mariners sticks, they have excelled against lefties this season (except for against JA Happ yesterday). Seattle should resume hitting southpaws well here as Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has a situation similar to Swanson's. The Red Sox left-hander has had strong starts against sub-par teams like the Orioles, White Sox, and Tigers. However, in the other 4 starts for Rodriguez this season he has allowed 18 earned runs in 18 innings! Note that the over is 9-1 this season in Mariners games against left-handed starters. Also, the over is 31-15 (including 4-2 this season) when the Red Sox are playing after a day off. Nice situation here for a slugfest! 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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05-09-19 | Reds v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Cincinnati Reds @ 3:35 ET - Yesterday's game went 13 innings which used up bullpen for each team. That means if either starter gets into trouble here - and both certainly could - there might be some tired arms called upon in this one. Even though the total has moved to a 9 in a lot of spots, the over is still offering great value here as day games in Oakland are much more hitter-friendly than night games. At night, Oakland Coliseum is known as a park that is friendly to pitchers. However, in day games - and particularly with the wind blowing out toward center - the ballpark is definitely a little more hitter friendly. That explains part of the reason why the over is 74-52 (including 8-3 this season) in Athletics day games. Also, the over is 15-9 in A's games against right-handed starters this season and also the over is 3-1 in Oakland's inter-league games. The over is 5-1 in the Reds last 6 games and Cincinnati has scored an average of 7 runs per game during this stretch. Cincy is starting Tanner Roark in this one and he gave up 4 earned runs in his most recent road start this season and also allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent start at Oakland. As for A's starter Chris Bassitt, he has good numbers early this season but he has only made 3 starts and the last two were against the Blue Jays and Pirates. Note that Toronto and Pittsburgh are two of the lowest scoring teams in the majors this season. That said, Bassitt is now facing a Reds team that has been producing runs as well as any team in the majors over the past 7 days. Per the above, you can see why both lineups should have big days at the plate in this one. 10* OVER the total in Oakland |
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05-08-19 | Twins v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 101 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:05 ET - Off back to back shutouts and having scored a TOTAL of only TWO runs in their last THREE games, Toronto's bats might look dead in the water at this point. The fact is the Blue Jays lineup is weaker this season than in past seasons. However, the above factors are part of what is driving the solid line value here as this one is a positive match-up for the Jays sticks. The Twins are starting Kyle Gibson. Not only did the Minnesota right-hander allowed 4 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings versus the Blue Jays last month, he has a 7.56 ERA in three career starts at Rogers Centre in Toronto. The right-hander also has a 5.31 ERA in his road starts this season and the over is 3-1 in those 4 outings away from home. Gibson will be opposed by Trent Thornton in this one. He is 0-2 with a 5.00 ERA in his 4 home starts this season and only one of the four resulted in an under. Also, Thornton faced Minnesota last month and the Twins got to him for 4 earned runs in 4 and 2/3 innings of work. In taking the first two games of this 3-game set, the Twins are now a red hot 9-3 their last 12 games. Minnesota has scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 9 victories. The Blue Jays entered this series having gone 3-0 in their 3 most recent home games and scoring an average of 5.3 runs per game in the process. After facing tough starting pitching and struggling badly in the first two games of this series, this is the right match-up for the Blue Jays lineup to get back on track. As a result, the over improves to 6-3 in Gibson's career starts against the Jays. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-08-19 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 8.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Chicago White Sox @ 6:10 ET - Considering that the Tribe have scored a TOTAL of ONE run in their last THREE games, this is absolutely a contrarian play. Why do I like it so much? Weather, by Cleveland standards, will be mild with temperatures in the 60s and I fully expect the White Sox Reynaldo Lopez to help turn this Indians lineup around. Lopez pitched at Progressive Field twice last season and allowed 12 runs (11 earned) in a total of only 7 innings of work! The Chicago right-hander enters this start with a 6.69 ERA on the season and off an ugly outing at home versus the Red Sox. Lopez will be opposed by Shane Bieber here. The Indians right-hander is off a strong start but he threw a career-high 114 pitches. I like fading pitchers off long outings like that and Bieber is facing a White Sox team that has won 7 of its last 11 games and has averaged scoring 5 runs per game during this stretch. The over is 4-2 this season when Cleveland is at home and favored in a range of -175 to -250. Also, in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs, the over is 4-2 in Indians games this season. The White Sox are 6-2 to the over in games against teams with a winning record and Chicago is also 14-6-1 to the over this season in games against right-handed starters. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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05-07-19 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners @ 6:35 ET - With yesterday's game going over the total early, the over is now 11-4 in the Yankees last 15 games. As for the Mariners, they have been trending over all season long as they are 26-8-3 to the over on the year. Seattle is 13-3-1 to the over in road games and also 15-5-3 to the over in night games. The Mariners have a slugging percentage of .531 in road games this season and that ranks them #1 in the majors. The Yankees are hitting .266 against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them #2 in the American League. New York will face southpaw Marco Gonzales in this one. Gonzales faced the Yankees once last season and it was here in the Bronx and he gave up 3 homers in an ugly outing that saw him allow 6 earned runs in 6 and 1/3 innings of work. With mild weather in the forecast in New York tonight the ball should be carrying well again at Yankee Stadium. Starting for the home side in this one is Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees right-hander has good numbers against the Mariners in his career but he has struggled in 3 of his last 4 starts. He just doesn't seem quite right and the way Seattle has swung the bats this season they are a different team compared to the one he faced last season. Tanaka has given up 5 homers in his last 4 starts and these haven't been particularly long outings either. Another plus for the over here is that the Mariners bullpen ERA ranks among the worst in the majors this season. Though this total has moved from an opener of 8.5 to a 9 there is still plenty of value here in what could very well turn into a slugfest that goes over the total early just like yesterday's game did. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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05-05-19 | Blue Jays v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 3:05 ET - The Blue Jays lineup is not overly impressive but I expect they put up 5 runs yesterday and are fully capable of getting at least that again here. At the same time, the Rangers should match them run for run and that is why I like the over here despite the fact a big total is posted on this game. The fact is that the Rangers are averaging 6 runs per game at home this season. Also Texas has averaged 7.6 runs per game in their last 6 games. The Rangers Drew Smyly has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts even though he only averaged 4 innings per start! Also, the Texas southpaw is returning from a stint on the DL as he was already dealing with arm fatigue and tightness early this season. Smyly's pitch count is likely to be limited and that will expose a Rangers bullpen that has ranked among the worst in the majors this season. As for Toronto starter Clay Buchholz, he has a 6.13 ERA in his last three starts and also note that he has a 5.58 ERA in road starts this season. It has been a few seasons since he has pitched at Arlington but that certainly has not been a good venue for him! Buchholz allowed 10 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts in Arlington. Both these pitchers are homer-prone and it will be hitter-friendly conditions on a warm afternoon in Texas and in a hitter-friendly park. The ball should be jumping off the bats here. The over is 41-23 when the Blue Jays are a road dog in a range of +125 to +175. Also, Toronto is 11-6 to the over in games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. The over is a long-term 43-25 when Texas is at home with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. Also, the over is 7-2 in Rangers day games this season. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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