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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-05-19 | Mariners v. Indians OVER 9 | 10-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Seattle Mariners @ 1:10 ET - The Indians and Mariners have been struggling overall at the plate in recent weeks but yesterday's game going over the total is a sign of what is to come Sunday too based on this pitching match-up. The Mariners Erik Swanson had a great first start this season and, ironically, it came against the Indians. However, he has since allowed 10 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts. Now he gives the Tribe a second look at him and plus this time it is at Cleveland. Look for the Indians bats to pound Swanson as his recent struggles are no fluke. As for Tribe starter Cody Anderson, he is only getting this start because Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger are currently hurt. Note that Anderson has an ugly 13.49 ERA in his two career starts against the Mariners. He has missed the last two seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery and Anderson has a 5.40 ERA working out of the bullpen so far this season. The over is 11-3 in Seattle's road games this season and the over is also 10-3 in Mariners day games this year. More of the same expected on Sunday. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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05-04-19 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins @ 1:05 ET - Both the Twins Jake Odorizzi and the Yankees JA Happ are off strong starts. However, there is much more than meets the eye as the surface here. Happ is winless with an 8.16 ERA in his three home starts this season. Odorizzi is 1-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his road starts this season. The Yankees are 4-2 to the over in Happ's starts this season while the Twins are 3-0 to the over in Odorizzi's road starts this season. The over is 10-4-1 to the over in Minnesota's road games this season after yesterday's game snuck over the total late. Part of the key was the bullpen work and these teams rank only in the middle of the pack for bullpen ERA on the season. Considering that factor as well as the home/road dichotomy for the starting pitchers in this one, you can see why I am going with the over here. The over is 11-6 this season in Yankees games with posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs and I like the fact we've got good value here with this total at an 8.5 at Yankee Stadium. It will be mild weather in the Bronx and the Twins .481 slugging percentage versus left-handed pitchers ranks them 3rd in the American League. Minnesota is averaging 6.4 runs per game on the road this season but their bullpen ERA is a 5.56 away from home. The Yankees, in home games, are averaging 5.4 runs per game this season. This one flies over as both starting pitchers struggle more than the markets are expecting. Their recent starts have been good but the home/road issues are no fluke so far this season. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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05-03-19 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - Jerad Eickhoff is off a great start at home and also pitched well in his other appearance at home this season. However, though his most recent outing was impressive he faced a very bad Marlins lineup. Note that in his prior start Eickhoff allowed 4 earned runs on 7 hits and 4 walks in 6 innings of work. He does have good stuff and gets a lot of strikeouts but now he faces a Nationals team that has scored 25 runs in their last two games at Citizens Bank Park. Of course I am aware of the Nationals being without Ryan Zimmerman and Anthony Rendon right now (and the fact that Juan Soto may not start again tonight) but there is still plenty of pop in this lineup. Also, Washington is simply loaded with confidence when facing the Phillies. They have hit very well in this park plus have fared well against Philadelphia's bullpen. The flip side of this equation is that Jeremy Hellickson was successful in his lone start against the Phillies this season. However, the Nationals right-hander will likely get hit harder as Philadelphia's lineup now gets a second look at him in a span of about 3 weeks. The over is 4-1 in the 5 meetings between these teams this season and, other than struggling against Hellickson, the Phils lineup averaged 6.5 runs per game in the other 4 games. As far as the bullpens here, the Nationals 5.87 ERA ranks them dead last in the NL. The Nats bullpen .269 BAA ranks them dead last in NL too. Who is 2nd to last in that category? The Phillies bullpen with a .265 BAA. The point is we should see runs early, often, and throughout this game. The over is 9-5 in Washington's night games this season as well as 9-5 in Nationals divisional games this year. The Phillies over is 4-1 this season when playing after a day off. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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05-02-19 | Cardinals v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs St Louis Cardinals @ 4:05 ET - The odds makers are very sharp. When I first looked at the money line on this game I though to myself, "how can Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals only be in the -150 range"? Of course that was at first glance. Now, after analyzing it further it makes perfect sense. Now, that said, I still don't trust Dakota Hudson so I don't trust the underdog Cardinals either in this spot. But the direction I got pointed in was the over and I feel this is a very strong value play. The key to why this game was priced this way is because even though Strasburg appears to be back on track it has had more to do with whom he faced. His last two starts were against the Marlins and Padres. Note that prior to that he faced the Giants and struggled but the point is that those 3 teams are the 3 lowest scoring teams in the National League! On Thursday afternoon Strasburg now faces the highest scoring team in the National League! The over is 3-0 in his home starts this season and he has a 4.74 ERA in those outings. As for the Cards Hudson, none of his last 3 starts have resulted in an under and he has compiled a 7.53 ERA in those outings. Other factors that will help us here include the Nationals bullpen (6.02 ERA) ranking as the worst in the National League and also the Washington weather (temperatures in the 80s and possible breeze blowing out to right). The over is 8-4 in Cardinals day games this season. The over is 7-0 in Nationals games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. As of early this morning there is still some 8.5 available on this one and, even those of you getting a 9 should not worry as I fully expect double digits in runs in this one! 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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05-02-19 | Rockies v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies @ 1:10 ET - We're getting line value on this total because Christian Yelich may again be out of the lineup this afternoon and because of the long-term reputation of each of these starters. The fact is that the Rockies Jon Gray is coming off a very rough start and he also has been rocked in 2 of his last 3 starts against Milwaukee. As for Brewers starter Freddy Peralta, he has been announced as healthy and ready to return but I always like to challenge guys in a spot like this. Not only did Peralta get rocked in each of his last two starts before dropping out of the rotation, he's now facing a Colorado lineup that exploded for 11 runs in yesterday's win. The over is 5-1 this season in Milwaukee's home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Brewers, even without Yelich, have scored at least 4 runs in each of the last 3 games. That said, a 4-4 game guarantees us of no less than a 5-4 final and a winning over ticket here as this total has dropped from an opener of a 9 down to an 8.5 as of early Thursday AM. With both starting pitchers having some question marks and the fact that yesterday's game totaled 15 runs, I certainly like the odds that this game gets at least 9 runs and truly I expect double digits in runs in this one. 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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05-01-19 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks OVER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees @ 3:40 ET - After yesterday's pitchers duel between CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke, look for a much different type of game today. The Yankees hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka and his pitches generated a lot of contact in his most recent start. He had been pitching well prior to that start but the fact Tanaka struggled to get any swings and misses at his stuff against a struggling Angels lineup is absolutely a sign he should get rocked again today. That said, there is great line value here with this total posted at only 8 runs. This is particularly true because I also do not expect much success for the Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly. The Arizona right-hander had been pitching in Korea the past 4 seasons. He started this season strong in his first two starts but faced lineups that were slumping at the time. Speaking of struggling lineups, the Pirates are the team Kelly faced in his most recent start and that helped lead to a successful outing. But in his two prior starts Kelly allowed 7 earned runs on 14 hits and 8 walks in less than 9 innings of work. That said, he is being vastly over-rated at this early point in the season and, based on what I expect out of he and Tanaka today, this total is an absolute bargain at only 8 runs. Even with yesterday's result including, the Yankees are 11-3 to the over in road games this season. Also, the Diamondbacks have scored an average of 6 runs per game their past 8 games and haven't had back to back unders in over a week and a half. That won't change here either! 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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05-01-19 | A's v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 3-7 | Push | 0 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Oakland A's @ 1:05 ET - Michael Fiers gets the start for the Athletics and he has a 7.03 ERA on the season. Though he is off a solid start it came against a Blue Jays team that is dead last in the AL for on base percentage so far this season. Hector Velazquez gets the start for the Red Sox and he has a 5.91 ERA in his career against the A's. Also, the Boston right-hander has not pitched more than 3 and 1/3 innings in any of his 3 starts this season and that could expose a Red Sox bullpen that has been only mediocre this season. Additionally, the Oakland bullpen also ranks only in the middle of the pack this season for ERA. The A's had a bad day at the plate yesterday in the 5-1 loss but the 5 times this season they have been held to 1 run or less the over is 3-1-1 in their next game. The over is 2-1 this season when the Red Sox are off a game where they allowed 1 run or less. Oakland's Wednesday games are 4-1 to the over and A's day games are 7-3-1 to the over this season. 8* OVER the total in Boston |
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04-30-19 | A's v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Oakland A's @ 7:10 ET - Chilly weather at Fenway Park in Boston Tuesday evening but that won't be enough to help these two struggling hurlers. Aaron Brooks shut down the Red Sox in Oakland on the first day of this month. But since then he has a 6.86 ERA in his last 4 starts and Brooks now makes his first ever appearance at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are starting to hit the ball much better since returning home. There were a couple exceptions when they faced tough pitchers like Morton and Glasnow but in their other 3 home games the past 6 days Boston has averaged 9 runs per game including a 9-run outburst yesterday. They should have no trouble with the offerings of Brooks. Give him credit for an amazing first start this season against the Red Sox but their bats were really struggling early this season. Not only has Brooks struggled since then, he also has a career .289 batting average against at the MINOR league level. I do not mean to be disrespectful but when guys have been hit at nearly a .300 clip through all levels of minor league ball from rookie league all the way up they generally prove to struggle facing major league hitters! As for Red Sox starter Rick Porcello, he is off a RARE solid start but he faced the Tigers. He now faces an Oakland team that has averaged 5 runs per game their last 8 games and scored 4 or more runs in 6 of those 8 games. Porcello faced the A's once last season and got knocked around for 5 earned runs in 6 innings. This is a hurler whom has struggled with the long ball and allowed 2 homers in that start against Oakland too. Porcello is getting hit at .347 clip this season! Also, the Red Sox bullpen has a 4.74 ERA at home and the Athletics bullpen has a 5.21 ERA on the road so far this season. As you can see per the above, we should see runs early, often, and throughout this game! The over is 8-4 in Oakland's road games this season and the Red Sox are 5-0 to the over in Porcello's starts this season. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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04-29-19 | Astros v. Twins OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros @ 7:40 ET - When teams get a quick 2nd look at starting pitchers it almost always favors the hitters. That's because they just saw the offerings of that hurler and can be better adjusted the 2nd time around. This total is being kept low because Justin Verlander is a high quality pitcher. As a result, I like the value we're getting here with this total at just 8.5 runs as of early Monday morning. The Twins have been swinging the bats well and also will be at home this time against Verlander. That does make a difference. Minnesota won 4-1 yesterday and that marked the 11th time in their last 12 games that they've scored at least 4 runs. As for the Astros, they also are off a 4-1 win yesterday and that marked the 8th time in their last 10 games that they've scored at least 4 runs. Keep in mind, getting each team to 4 runs here guarantees us of no less than a 5-4 final and that equates to a winning ticket with this over. The Twins have a .515 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers this season and that ranks them #1 out of all 30 teams in the majors! The Astros are hitting .271 on the season overall and that ranks them #1 out of all 30 teams in the majors! Though Jake Odorizzi held Houston to just 2 earned runs last week he was fortunate as he allowed 8 hits in less than 6 innings of work and only had 2 strikeouts! He has now given up 7 earned runs in 10 and 1/3 innings in his last 2 starts against the Astros plus he allowed 3 homers in the process. The Twins have scored an average of 6.6 runs per game their last 9 games. Houston has scored an average of 5.5 runs per game their last 10 games. The over is 8-4 in Twins night games this season. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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04-28-19 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers @ 4:10 ET - Lance Lynn had a 4.77 ERA and I watched many of his starts and it certainly could have been much worse. That is why the right-hander is bouncing around as this is his 4th team now in recent seasons as he has been with the Cardinals, Twins, Yankees, and now the Rangers. The right-hander is getting pummeled this season at a .302 clip and I expect the Mariners to pound him after getting embarrassed in yesterday's 15-1 loss to Texas. The over is 6-2-1 in Seattle's last 9 games. Prior to yesterday's ugly defeat, the Mariners had scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in their 8 previous games. The Rangers lineup comes into this one red hot. Texas has averaged scoring 6.2 runs per game their last 16 games. The Rangers have scored an average of 6.5 runs on 10.3 hits in their last 8 games. They'll take advantage of a young hurler whom is over-rated right now. Yes Erik Swanson has good early numbers but he has only made two starts. The young right-hander struggled in his 2nd start versus the Padres after excelling in his first start versus the Indians. The fact is that the San Diego team and Cleveland team he faced are two of the worst offenses in MLB early this season. Now he faces a Rangers team that has been one of the highest-scoring teams in the majors. Which team has scored the most runs? The Mariners! And also these two teams have a bullpen ERA that ranks each of them among the worst in the majors. All signs point to a high-scoring game here. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
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04-28-19 | Rockies v. Braves OVER 9 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies @ 1:20 ET - A pair of struggling hurlers square off and they're facing lineups that have been surging at the plate. The Rockies Tyler Anderson is winless with a 12.00 ERA in his three starts this season. The Braves Kevin Gausman has give up 4 or more earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts. Though he might be expected to bounce back at home in this one after a rough road start at Cincinnati, Gausman will be making his first afternoon start of the season. In 2017, Gausman went 2-5 with a 5.71 ERA and .299 BAA in his 10 day game starts. Fluke? No, in 2018 Gausman went 3-4 with a 5.23 ERA and a .287 BAA in his 10 day game starts. Now he faces a Rockies team that has scored 7 or more runs in 4 of its last 5 games. Of course all 4 of those games went over the total. As for the Braves lineup, they've produced an average of 5.4 runs per game their last 8 games. The over has gone 6-2 in those 8 games and we're dealing with a value priced total here at 9 runs. We just need to get each team to 4 runs and we can do no worse than a push. The Braves have scored at least 4 runs in 6 of their last 8 games. The Rockies have scored at least 4 runs in 11 of their last 12 games. The over is 8-4 the last dozen times Colorado is off a win. The over is 5-1 the last 6 times the Braves faced a left-handed starter. 8* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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04-27-19 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Saturday 8* OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 2:15 ET - The wind will be blowing out toward left at Busch Stadium and relatively mild temperatures as well so the hitters should have a big afternoon. The Reds have additional confidence after exploding for 12 runs in last night's win which was their 6th victory in their last 8 games. They have scored 4 or more runs in 5 of those 6 wins and, keep in mind, 4 is our key number here. That's because if each team gets to 4 runs we are guaranteed of at least a 5-4 game meaning we can't lose this total - currently posted at 9 runs as of early game day morning. The Cardinals should have no trouble getting to 4 runs as, prior to yesterday, St Louis had scored 4 or more runs in 10 straight games! In fact, St Louis averaged 6.8 runs per game during this stretch. The Cards hammered Tyler Mahle when they saw him last season as they got to him for 5 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings. Also, the Reds right-hander enters this start having been rocked for 4 earned runs in each of his past two outings. The Cardinals Dakota Hudson is also likely to struggle. The St Louis right-hander has allowed 9 earned runs in less than 9 innings of work spanning his last two starts. Hudson has had some issues with command of his pitches as well. The over is 6-2 this season when St Louis is off a loss. Also, the Cardinals are 14-6 to the over this season when facing a right-handed starter and also 8-3 to the over in day games. 8* OVER the total in St Louis |
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04-26-19 | Rockies v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:20 ET - This is a contrarian play all the way and it is the type of situation I love as we get extra line value due to market perception. This total opened up at a 9 but dropped to an 8.5 because of the fact that the Braves Max Fried and the Rockies Antonio Senzatela both have good numbers this season. Keep in mind it is still very early in the season though and Senzatela has made only two starts. One was against the light-hitting Padres at pitcher-friendly San Diego and in his other start Senzatela did allow 4 earned runs in 6 innings against a Phillies team that otherwise has been struggling at the plate of late. As for Fried, yes he has great numbers early this season but his most recent outing was against an Indians team that has ranked among the worst in the majors at the plate early this season and he still allowed 7 hits and walked 3 in 6 and 1/3 innings. The Rockies just saw him for the first time about two weeks ago so getting a 2nd look at Fried will prove to be an advantage tonight. As for Senzatela, he faced the Braves last season and had more walks than strikeouts plus allowed 2 earned runs in 5 innings. The rematch is likely to be worse as Atlanta enters this game having averaged 6 runs and 11 hits per game in their last 5 games. The Rockies also have been swinging the bats better as they have won 8 of their last 10 games and averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game in the process. The point is that we can take advantage of a low total here thanks to market perception. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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04-25-19 | Tigers v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - I had the over in this match-up yesterday and, admittedly, caught a break. The game had a decent start in terms of run production but then stalled until the Red Sox had a huge bottom of the 8th. However, rather than shy away from coming right back with the same play (because of getting fortunate) I actually am recommending to again invest in the same play between the same teams today. One of the keys is that the Tigers bullpen has been a strength this season but yesterday's performance absolutely could be a sign of things to come. Likewise, the Red Sox bats have been slow to get going this season but yesterday's 11 runs scored absolutely could be the catalyst for the Boston bats to get hot. That said, the fact this total dropped to a 9 this morning offers value also as now we just need each team to get to 4 runs and we can't lose the play. Note that the Tigers have scored 4 or more runs in 4 straight games. Also, Detroit is averaging 5 runs per game in their last 6 games. The Red Sox have scored 4 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games and have scored an average of 5.5 runs per game in those 6 games. Boston's Rick Porcello may have extra motivation going against his former team but that didn't help him the last time he faced Detroit. The Tigers got to him for 11 hits in 6 innings when he most recently faced them. Porcello gives up too many homers and that has continued this season and has played a role in his winless record and 8.49 ERA on the season. The Tigers Jordan Zimmerman also has struggled as he is winless with a 4.94 ERA on the season. He started the season well but has a 9.22 ERA in his last 3 starts. Zimmerman's last two starts at Fenway Park have seen him allow 9 earned runs in less than 9 innings of work! The over is 3-0 in Zimmerman's last 3 starts and 4-0 in Porcello's starts this season but 2-0 in Porcello's last two starts against the Tigers. Detroit is a long-term 27-12 to the over in Thursday games and the Red Sox are 3-0 to the overs in Thursday games this season. Lot of perfect edges here! 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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04-24-19 | Tigers v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - The Tigers are loaded with confidence after earning the sweep yesterday. Detroit has now won 4 of its last 5 games and averaged 11 hits per game in these 5 contests. The Tigers pounded out a dozen hits in each game of the twinbill yesterday. That included Detroit giving the Red Sox beleaguered bullpen plenty of trouble yesterday. Boston's bullpen ERA ranks them among the worst in the majors this season as they are far off the mark from where they were last season. I do look for the BoSox bats to bounce back today and that is why I expect this game to fly over the total because Detroit should stay hot at the plate as well. The Tigers will be facing Eduardo Rodriguez and the over is 3-1 in his 4 starts this season as he has compiled a 7.20 ERA. The Red Sox will be facing Tyson Ross in this one. I am well aware that Ross has some decent numbers early this season but as he continues to throw hanging sliders, more and more damage will be done to his offerings. Ross has given up 9 runs in 12 innings in his last two starts but it is a bit "hidden" due to some unearned runs. He did allow 2 homers in his last start and, prior to that, Ross had more walks than strikeouts in his prior start. Also, his strikeout numbers are down in his last two starts. Both teams also had to use extra bullpen arms yesterday due to the double header. The wind is expected to be blowing out toward right field in this one at Fenway Park. The over is a long-term 53-35 (including 2-0 this season) in Detroit's games against southpaw starters. The over is 5-1 in Rodriguez's last 6 starts dating back to September of last season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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04-24-19 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals @ 3:10 ET - Anibal Sanchez will be starting a game at Coors Field for just the 3rd time in his long career. The last time he started a game here he was fortunate to escape damage as he allowed 7 hits in 5 innings. The prior start he had here he was also fortunate that damage wasn't worse as he allowed 3 homers but all were solo bombs. On a mild afternoon at Coors Field, the ball will be carrying very well and I expect this to be the start where Sanchez gives up a lot of hits including multiple homers all in the same game. The result will be an ugly afternoon for him and, keep in mind, behind him is a Nationals bullpen that is dead last in the majors with a 6.97 ERA. As for the Rockies, they are starting German Marquez. He has faced Washington twice in his career and the lone start against them at Coors Field was a disaster as the Nationals got to him for 8 earned runs in just 4 innings. The Nats enter this game having scored 5 or more runs in 3 straight games. The Rockies, prior to yesterday's loss, had won 7 of their past 8 games and averaged 5.4 runs per game during that stretch. Getting each team to 5 runs here would not be a shock at all and a 5-5 game has to end with at least 11 runs scored. This total dropped from an 11 to a 10.5 and I am grabbing the value with the over in this one. The over is 3-0 this season in Washington's Wednesday games. Look for another one here! 8* OVER the total in Colorado |
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04-23-19 | Phillies v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:10 ET - The Phillies are without a couple of guys in their lineup right now but they still have plenty of solid hitters and sluggers up and down the lineup. After managing just 3 hits in last night's 5-1 loss to the Mets, look for the Phils sticks to bounce back in New York tonight. However, Zach Eflin gets the call on the mound for Philadelphia and he has not fared well at Citi Field. He is winless in his 3 career starts there and that includes compiling an ugly 10.13 ERA at Citi Field last year. The Mets are averaging a solid 6 runs per game in their home games this season and should get to Eflin here. However, New York's starting pitcher, Zack Wheeler is also likely to struggle. The Phillies just saw him last week and though he fared quite well he did allow two homers. Also, the last time Wheeler faced the Phils at Citi Field, they got to him for 10 baserunners (7 hits, 3 walks) in less than 5 innings of work. 2 of Eflin's last 3 starts versus the Mets have resulted in an over. Though Wheeler's start against the Phillies last week resulted in an under, the over was previously 7-3 in his 10 prior starts against Philadelphia. The over is 9-2 in Mets night games this season and 8-3 in Mets games against teams with a winning record. That includes last night's under and so do these stats: the Phillies are 10-5 to the over in divisional games this season and also 9-5 to the over in night games this season. 10* OVER the total in New York Mets |
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04-22-19 | White Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - The White Sox (5.04 ERA) and Orioles (6.55 ERA) have two of the worst bullpens in the majors so far this season. Also, this total first opened up at a 10.5 yesterday afternoon but has now dropped to a 9.5 as of game day morning. Chicago starter Manny Banuelos is making his first start since 2015 as he has been working out of the bullpen. Baltimore starter David Hess had a great first start this season but then went 0-3 with a 9.24 ERA in his 3 starts that followed. Last season Hess went 3-10 with a 4.88 ERA so the long-term certainly shows his early strong outing versus the Blue Jays this year is the exception rather than the norm. The over is 4-2 in White Sox road games with a money line between +125 and -125. The over is 9-5 this season in Chicago's games against right-handed starters. The Baltimore over is 9-1 this season in home games. The Orioles over is also 8-3 this season in night games. The O's entered yesterday's action having averaged 5 runs per game at home this season. The White Sox entered yesterday's action having averaged 6.5 runs per game on the road this season. With the extra line value thanks to the drop on this total, this one gets my top play rating. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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04-21-19 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros @ 3:05 ET - The Rangers continue to swing the bats quite well at home. Even against Gerrit Cole yesterday, though they struck out a lot, Texas pounded out big hits and sent the opposing starter to an early exit. The Astros Colin McHugh is also likely to get hit hard here and, at the same time, the Rangers Shelby Miller has little shot of keeping the Houston sticks in check. Houston already saw the Texas right-hander early this month and Miller was fortunate he allowed only 2 earned runs as he walked 5 and allowed 5 hits in less than 4 innings of work. The Astros have stayed under the total in just 21 of their last 59 Sunday games. The Rangers have scored an average of nearly 7 runs per game in their last 7 home games. The over is 9-5 when Texas is a home dog of +175 or more. The over is 4-2 this season in Rangers games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the over is a perfect 2-0 in Miller's home starts this season. McHugh has allowed 14 hits in 9 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts in Arlington. Both those starts went over the total and also each of Miller's two starts against the Astros in his career have gone over the total. Warm weather and strong south winds at Globe Life Park in Arlington also helps to produce hitter-friendly conditions here. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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04-21-19 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins @ 1:05 ET - Decent weather in Baltimore for this one and two starting pitchers likely to struggle. The Twins Kyle Gibson has a 7.36 ERA this season and has allowed 3 homers in his last 3 starts against the Orioles. Baltimore's Dylan Bundy allowed the most homers in the AL last season and he enters this start having allowed 7 homers in his last 3 games so his long-term trending (giving up too many homers) is certainly staying strong. The Orioles are a perfect 9-0 to the over in home games this season. The numbers are incredible as Baltimore's home games aren't just sneaking over the total either. The Orioles last 7 home games have averaged 15.3 runs per game! The Twins are 7-2 to the over this season in road games. The Orioles bullpen has been the worst in the American League this season and Minnesota also ranks in the bottom half of the majors. 8* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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04-19-19 | Royals v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Top Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - I have been burned by the Yankees totals recently but the 3rd time will be the charm. Now things are getting over-adjusted by the markets and that leads to great value in a spot like this. The total on Friday's game is down to an 8.5 and this is even though temperatures will be rather mild and a steady wind is expected to be blowing out to left field at Yankee Stadium tonight. With good hitting conditions in the Bronx tonight and needing just 4 runs from each team in this one to guarantee a winner (game can't end 4-4 so we'd get at least 9 runs) this is a must play in my book. CC Sabathia had a great first start last week to open up his season but one should never over-react to just one outing. Also, the southpaw is facing a Royals team that has scored 4 or more runs in 7 of its last 9 games after yesterday's 6-1 win. I expect KC to stay hot and score their fair share of runs. The Royals confidence is growing as they have won 4 of their last 6 games. The Yankees had scored an average of nearly 6 runs per game in their 9 games prior to yesterday's poor effort. I look for the Bronx Bombers to bounce back strong against the Royals Jakob Junis tonight. The Kansas City right-hander has a 6.61 ERA and a .304 batting average against this season. He has consistently allowed 3 or more earned runs in all 4 of his starts. In their first 18 games this season, KC had just 6 unders. After last night's game stayed under the total, look for "normal" to resume tonight and take advantage of this low total. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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04-18-19 | Royals v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:35 ET - It is true that Homer Bailey is off arguably his best start since the 2017 season. However, the Royals right-hander faced an Indians lineup that continues to function as one of the worst hitting teams in the majors. Likewise, Yankees right-hander Domingo German has great numbers in his first two starts but he faced the two teams projected to be the two worst teams in the AL this season as he squared off with Baltimore and Detroit. Of course Kansas City is also projected to have a rough season too but don't be surprised when they enjoy success against German in the Bronx. The Royals got a big 4-3 win in 10 innings yesterday and confidence is a little higher than usual as KC has won 4 of its last 6 games and also averaged scoring 5 runs per game in its last 8 games. The Yankees also come into this game with a boost of momentum after a 2-game sweep of the rival Red Sox that saw the Bronx Bombers score 13 runs in the two games. The Yankees lineup has produced an average of 6 runs per game their last 11 games. Just on sheer averages alone you can see why it wouldn't surprise me to see a 6-5 type game here and, keep in mind, with the total at just a 9 we only need to get each team to get to 4 runs to guarantee we won't lose the play as it would have to end at least 5-4. I am actually expecting each team to get to 5 in this one on a rather pleasant evening weather-wise in the Bronx tonight. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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04-17-19 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 6:35 ET - This total opened up at a 9.5 but has dropped to a 9 as many don't trust the Boston bats. Certainly they have struggled early this season and the Red Sox enter this game having scored a total of just 1 run in their last 2 games. However, that has led to great value here with the over and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am fading the line move. The fact is that the Yankees J.A. Happ could be just what the doctor ordered in terms of the remedy for the Boston bats. The New York southpaw is winless with an 8.76 ERA in his first 3 starts this season. Also, Happ has allowed 8 earned runs in the 9 innings spanning his last two starts against the Red Sox. As for Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi, he has had success in recent starts versus the Yankees. However, he is not right early this season. Eovaldi is winless with an 8.40 ERA in his first 3 starts this year. Now he faces a Yankees team that has scored 6 or more runs in 3 of their last 5 games after they erupted for 8 runs in yesterday's blowout win. In fact, the Yanks have averaged 6.1 runs per game in their last 10 games. The over is 3-0 in Happ's starts this season as well as 3-0 in Eovaldi's starts this season. Only 4 of Boston's first 12 road games have resulted in an under. I look for the over to improve to 5-2 this season in Red Sox games against southpaw starters. Also, the Yankees over in divisional games is set to improve to 6-2 on the season. Look for both starters to struggle and the weather is certainly decent for mid-April in the Bronx. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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04-16-19 | Blue Jays v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 102 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:40 ET - The Twins have been swinging the bats quite well early this season except at home but that had a lot to do with typical cold spring weather in Minnesota. However, temperatures today in Minneapolis are warming well into the 60s and a bounce back at the plate is expected. Yes Aaron Sanchez has some impressive numbers early this season. However, it must be noted that the Blue Jays right-hander started the season by facing the Tigers and Indians. Those are the two bottom teams in the American League for batting average so far this season. Sanchez then faced the Red Sox but even they are struggling at the plate early this season. However, Boston did get him to for 4 runs (but only 1 was earned) as he labored quite a bit with 4 walks and 5 hits in his 5 innings of work. Sanchez gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings with more walks than strikeouts when he faced the Twins here in Minnesota last season. As for Twins starter Kyle Gibson, he is off to a very rough start this season. Gibson has a 7.71 ERA in his two starts this season and also a 5.73 ERA in his last two starts against the Blue Jays. The Toronto lineup is not a great one but they're building confidence as they've shown a knack for getting big hits. That is part of the reason the Jays have averaged 5.3 runs per game their last 6 games. The Twins have averaged 6.6 runs per game their last 5 games. The over is 39-19 when Toronto is a road dog in a range of +125 to +175. The over is 4-1 in Twins night games this season. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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04-15-19 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-12 | Win | 101 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
Top Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels @ 8:05 ET - The Rangers bats are coming to life at home. They do hit the ball very well at home as a general rule thanks to the hitter-friendly home ball park they play in. On Monday temperatures will warm into the 80s in the Arlington area so it will be a mild evening for baseball and the hitters should again prevail. The Angels might even have Mike Trout back for this game but, even if they don't, look for them to build off Saturday's 6-5 win at Chicago against the Cubs. The pitching match-up here is conducive to plenty of runs. Trevor Cahill gets the start for the Angels here and he had an ERA north of 6.00 on the road last season. Also, the last time he faced the Rangers he walked 6 in less than 3 innings. That was a home start for him too. The last two times he has faced them at Texas he has allowed a total of 8 earned runs in 10 innings. The point is that this is not a good match-up for him and all 3 of those meetings occurred last season. As for Rangers starter Shelby Miller, he just faced the Angels a week ago and he struggled with command and allowed 4 earned runs in just 2 innings of work. Miller's only other start this season saw him also struggle badly with his command and behind him is an unimpressive Rangers bullpen. Just like Friday's 8-6 Rangers loss and Sunday's 8-7 Rangers win, don't be surprised when another slugfest breaks out at Globe Life Park in Arlington in hitter-friendly conditions. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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04-14-19 | A's v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Oakland A's @ 3:05 ET - A cold front moved through yesterday which is what led to the rain and severe storms that caused the cancellation of Saturday's game. Even though it will be cool in Arlington Sunday afternoon it won't be cold by any means and the wind blowing out at about a 10 mph clip also helps our over here. Brian Anderson gets the start for the A's and is over-valued right now. He has decent stats on the season but that was helped by, in his opener, facing an Angels lineup that has been stone cold. Since then, Anderson has actually been hit hard and had some command issues in his two April starts. He has managed to work out of the jams so far but that is helping lead to him being overvalued here. Keep in mind the Oakland southpaw went 2-4 with a 6.06 ERA in road starts last season! The Rangers counter with Adrian Sampson and he is making just the 6th start of his young career. The right-hander is 0-5 with a 4.10 ERA and has been hit at a .280 clip at the MLB level. The Texas bullpen has struggled this season and ranks in the lower third of the majors. The A's pen ranks in the middle of the pack but the Rangers .462 slugging percentage in home games ranks them 3rd in the AL this season! Oakland has a sizzling hot .533 slugging percentage in road games this season which ranks them 4th in the majors this season! Just like Friday's 8-6 A's win, don't be surprised when another slugfest breaks out at Globe Life Park in Arlington in hitter-friendly conditions. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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04-13-19 | Mets v. Braves OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets @ 7:20 ET - Yesterday's game was 6-2 by the middle innings but finished that way and stayed under the total. I don't expect a repeat of that here. These two teams each rank in the lower half of the league for bullpen ERA so far this season. Also this match-up features a pair of unimpressive southpaw starters and the Braves are ranked 6th out of 30 for slugging percentage versus lefties this season while the Mets are ranked 6th out of 30 for batting average versus lefties this season! Both teams should swing the bats well and Jason Vargas is pitching on long rest. That is something that plagued the Mets lefty last season. The Braves Sean Newcomb is off a strong start but it came against the downtrodden Marlins. His prior outing was against the Cubs and he was very fortunate to not allow a run as he allowed TEN baserunners in only FOUR innings! Even with yesterday's result included, the Mets are still 9-3-1 to the over this season. Also, all 3 of their games against a left-handed starter have gone over the total and only 1 of the Braves 4 games this season against a southpaw starter has resulted in an under. Look for double digits here in this one! 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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04-13-19 | White Sox v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | 0-4 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Saturday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles @ 1:05 ET - I liked the over in this match-up yesterday but stayed away due to weather concerns. That ended up being the right choice as the game totaled 15 runs but was a rain-shortened 7-inning final so any totals plays were no action. In any event, today we have no threat of rain and I expect the hot hitting to continue. Temperatures are warming into the 70s today in the Bronx and a light breeze will be blowing out toward left-center field as well. Great conditions for the hitters. CC Sabathia gets the start for the Yankees and he is getting a late start to this season due some health concerns. I don't expect him to be 100% right out of the gate and the scrappy White Sox, including scoring 9 in just 7 innings yesterday, have scored 5 or more runs in 7 of their last 11 games. The over is 9-2-1 in their 12 games this season with the lone "push" being yesterday's "no action" result. I expect the Yankees to score plenty here as they face former teammate Ivan Nova. Not only has New York scored an average of 6.7 runs per game their last 6 games, Nova got absolutely crushed in his most recent start. Nova also compiled a 5.42 ERA and .286 BAA in away games last season. That is nothing new as he went 3-12 with an ugly 5.02 ERA in road games in 2017. Look for the Yankees (5-1-1 to the over L7 games) to pound him this afternoon as the high-scoring trending continues for both these teams. By the way, these bullpens (particularly the White Sox) have had their share of struggles this season. 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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04-12-19 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 4-6 | Push | 0 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - There were 4 homers hit in yesterday's game (Red Sox hosting Blue Jays) and the ball will be carrying very well again tonight. Chilly weather but a southerly breeze and that means another power display quite likely tonight. The Orioles David Hess had a good first start this season but that came against Toronto (hitting .198 on season). In his next start he gave up 3 homers to the Yankees. In his last two starts against the Red Sox, Hess has allowed 10 earned runs and 5 homers in just 8 innings of work! He'll be opposed by Eduardo Rodriguez and the southpaw is struggling badly early this season. The lefty has allowed 11 earned runs in only 8 innings of work spanning his first two starts. His most recent starts against the Orioles make it look, on the surface at least, like he dominated. However, Rodriguez actually allowed 17 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts versus Baltimore and he was fortunate to get out of jams. The way he has pitched early this season, and considering the hitter-friendly conditions expected at Fenway tonight, I don't expect Rodriguez to be so successful in getting out of jams tonight. The Orioles have won 4 of their last 5 road games and averaged 5 runs per game in those 4 victories away from home. Overall, entering this game, Baltimore has averaged 5.5 runs per game their last 4 games. The Red Sox are averaging 6 runs per game in their first two home games of the season and I foresee a breakout game tonight for the BoSox sticks after rallying from a 5-0 deficit for the win yesterday. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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04-12-19 | Angels v. Cubs OVER 10.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #977 Friday 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Angels @ 2:20 ET - Even though the temperature will only be near 50 degrees for this one, the wind will be blowing very strong out of the south. These are the types of conditions, even if cool weather, that can lead to a home run derby type of game at Wrigley Field. The ball will carry very very well. I am aware of the Mike Trout injury situation for the Angels but, even if he misses this game, there is still plenty of pop in both lineups to make the pitchers pay on a day where normally routine fly balls can turn into homers! That is how favorable the wind is going to be at Wrigley this afternoon. Cole Hamels gets the start for the Cubs and I know he pitched well after coming to Chicago last season but most of his season last year was with the Rangers and he allowed 23 homers in 20 starts for them. I could see him struggling here (and yes I am aware of his long-term success against the Angels). The fact is he gave up 4 homers in his last 2 starts against LA. As for Los Angeles starter Tyler Skaggs, he went 1-5 with a 9.22 ERA in his 7 starts after the All Star break. In his only road start so far this season he was shaky and could not complete five innings. The Cubs are use to plenty of day games and are proving comfortable in that spot again this year already. Chicago has hit .299 with 7 homers in their 4 afternoon games this season. Angels bullpen has been great this season but tough conditions here for sure. As for Cubs bullpen, they have struggled badly with a 6.07 ERA. Home run derby here. 10* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs |
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04-11-19 | Dodgers v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Thursday 8* OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 1:15 ET - Walker Buehler has good numbers versus the Cardinals in his young career but he has only lasted an average of 4 innings in his two starts this season. That is likely to continue here as he also didn't pitch much in spring training. That is why his velocity dipped in the 5th inning of his most recent start too. Buehler is still working up to full strength. He got hammered in his day game start this season and that should not come as a huge surprise. This is his 3rd season in the majors and so far he has been much better in night games than afternoon games as he has a 5.44 ERA in day games in his career. Buehler will really be challenged in this one too because the wind will be blowing out to left field at a very strong clip and we should see some homers this afternoon at Busch Stadium. The Dodgers lineup has induced more walks than any other team in the majors this season and that, plus the fact they have hammered him, makes this a bad match-up for Michael Wacha. The Cardinals right-hander is off a start in which he walked 8 batters. He is averaging a walk per inning so far this season in his two starts. When he does find the strike zone here he is likely to get roughed up as the Dodgers have had great success against him. As for the Cards sticks, they have managed to score at least 4 runs in all but 2 of their 12 games this season. Keep in mind, getting each team to 4 runs here guarantees us of no less than a 5-4 final and, behind Buehler (unlikely to pitch deep into this game) is a Dodgers bullpen that has had some struggles early this season. As for the Los Angeles sticks, they entered this series having scored an average of 8.4 runs per game on the year. After struggling in the first three games of this series, look for their bats to come alive here in very hitter friendly conditions at Busch Stadium and facing a pitcher struggling with his command. Wacha will make some "mistake pitches" here. 8* OVER the total in St Louis |
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04-10-19 | Dodgers v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:45 ET - The Dodgers got shutout yesterday but they still rate as the top hitting team in the National League so far this season. Also, Los Angeles leads the majors in walks. Of course that means LA is a patient team at the plate and that could frustrate the Cardinals Jack Flaherty. I have a lot of respect for Flaherty's overall body of work in his young career but also strongly feel that he is just not right at the present time. Keep in mind he finished up last season with an ugly September. Now in his first two starts this season he has been getting into deep pitching counts and falling behind hitters and has been unable to work deep into games. This problem does not lend itself well to being able to enjoy success against this tough Dodgers lineup. I know Flaherty has had success against them in the past but he is not in top form right now and also it is expected to be mild weather in St Louis this evening with a decent breeze blowing out to left. As for the Dodgers Kenta Maeda, he is off a rough start at Coors Field. I know last year his home/road splits were nearly equal but in 2017 his road ERA was 3 runs highers than his home ERA. Especially now coming off a tough time at Colorado, look for the road issues to be apparent again tonight. The Cards have a number of hitters in their lineup that have enjoyed success against Maeda even though it has been in limited action. The Cardinals lineup has not been as potent as we're use to seeing with St Louis teams but their slugging percentage in night games still ranks them in the upper third of the majors. Also, the Cards have managed to score at least 4 runs in all but 2 of their 11 games this season. Keep in mind, getting each team to 4 runs here guarantees us of no less than a 5-4 final and, behind Maeda is a Dodgers bullpen that has had some struggles early this season. As for the Los Angeles sticks, they entered this season having scored an average of 8.4 runs per game on the year. After struggling in the first two games of this series, look for their bats to come alive here. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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04-10-19 | Padres v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres @ 3:45 ET - These two pitchers, Nick Margevicius and Dereck Rodriguez, matched up on the 30th in San Diego and the game was a 3-2 final that stayed under the total. However, couple of keys as to why this game will play out much differently. First off that was an evening game. This is an afternoon game and temperatures will warm into the mid-60s and the wind will be blowing out at a good clip at Oracle Park in San Francisco. Second key is that in that first match-up there were a lot of hard hit balls but they were just hit right at people. Line drives, sharp grounders, etc. The point is that it is not as if Margevicius and Rodriguez were inducing a lot of soft contact or were piling up strikeouts. That simply was not the case. Margevicius did have 5 strikeouts in his 5-inning stint but now the rookie left-hander faces the Giants on the road. The third point here is that these hurlers are given these lineups a quick second look at them since they just faced them 10 days ago. With yesterday's 7-2 San Francisco win going over the total, the Giants have had just 1 under in their last 7 games and San Diego is now on a 6-2 run to the over. These certainly are not powerhouse lineups but that is also why you're dealing with a very low total posted on this game. Considering all of the above factors I am happy to step in and take advantage of the low total. 8* OVER the total in San Francisco |
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04-09-19 | A's v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 13-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland A's @ 7:05 ET - This total opened up at a 10 and it has dropped down to a 9 as of early game day morning. I fully understand the line move as the wind is expected to be blowing in sharply from left field for this one. However, the game is about much more than just home runs. The teams combined for 16 runs yesterday but only 4 of the 26 hits were homers and two of those were solo blasts. The fact is that both teams should stay hot at the plate here. The Orioles are hitting .268 versus lefties this season and the A's are slugging .457 against southpaws this season. Oakland left-hander Brett Anderson got rocked for 4 earned runs in less than 4 innings in his most recent start at Camden Yards. Baltimore southpaw John Means is making his first ever MLB start. In his minor league career, including LOW LEVEL ball, he has been hit at a combined .275 clip. That includes .277 at the AAA level. His action has been limited at the MLB level but he has been hit at a .289 clip and that comes as no surprise. Off an ugly 12-4 loss yesterday, look for Oakland to jump on the young hurler early and often. The A's have had more than 10 hits in each of their last two games. The Orioles have averaged scoring 5 runs per game in games against left-handed starters this season. Oakland's Anderson allowed 12 baserunners in just 5 and 1/3 innings in his last start and that came at home too! The over is 4-2 in the Athletics last 6 games and 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 games. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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04-08-19 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 9 | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Rivalry Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Monday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - In my opinion it is impossible to trust Vince Velasquez of the Phillies in this one. He is making his first start of 2019 and his recent body of work is scary bad. Velasquez wrapped up last season going 0-3 with a 10.70 ERA in his 5 September starts. He would surely shake it off this spring, right? Not if spring training is any indication! Velasquez got rocked and had a 12.79 ERA in his 3 starts. Now he faces a Nationals team that is really heating up at the plate! Washington has scored an average of 7 runs per game in their last 6 games against a right-handed starter. Look for the Phillies to match the Nats run for run in this one. They got to Anibal Sanchez for 4 runs in 4 innings last week. Also, Sanchez faced the Phillies each of his last two regular season starts last year! In other words, Philadelphia is certainly very familiar with his "stuff" and this is a Phillies lineup that had scored an average 8 runs per game in its first 6 games this season before being held to just 2 runs in each of its last two games. Facing a familiar starter (Sanchez) and a familiar bullpen that has struggled miserably this season, the Phillies sticks come right back to life here. The over is 4-1 in Phillies divisional games this season. The over is 6-1 in Washington's last 7 games. More of the same expected here. 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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04-08-19 | A's v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland A's @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles have gone over the total in 3 straight games. Baltimore's bullpen ranks as one of the worst in the majors thus far as they have compiled a 7.97 ERA, been hit at a .333 clip and allowed 15 homers in 40.2 innings! That is bad news for this match-up because with Andrew Cashner on the mound, the bullpen could very well be called upon early in this one! Cashner just faced the A's in September and allowed 8 earned runs in 8 innings! Not only that, in his two starts versus Oakland last season, Cashner allowed 3 homers in less than 7 innings of work! Marco Estrada gets the start for the A's here. I know he has had some success early this season but, in his only start away from home (in Japan) he did allow 2 homers in 5 innings. Also, the Orioles are very familiar with him and Estrada has allowed 4 homers in 17 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts against them. The Oakland right-hander went 5-11 with a 6.17 ERA in his night starts last season. The A's lineup got back on track with 8 runs in yesterday's tight loss at Houston. Oakland will now take advantage of a starting pitcher they have pounded plus a weak bullpen. Don't be surprised if the O's answer them run for run! 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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04-07-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:35 ET - Julio Urias has pitched sporadically in recent seasons and is only in the rotation due to injury. One thing that has been consistent for Urias when he has pitched though is the fact that he didn't like Coors Field! He has pitched here twice (one start) and has compiled an 11.57 ERA and been hit hard at a .457 clip! The southpaw faces a Rockies lineup tonight that has a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against him. An evening game in early April in Colorado certainly can be chilly or even downright cold! But that is not the case this evening and that adds to the value here. Temperatures will top out in the 70s today in Denver and won't be much cooler than that when this one gets underway and on through the game temps should remain about the 60 degree mark. Very pleasant weather for baseball and the ball will carry very well tonight at Coors Field. Of course that also spells bad news for Rockies start Chad Bettis. Last season in his 17 home games (10 starts) he got rocked to the tune of a 7.08 ERA and opponents hit .311 against him. He is already off to rocky start this season as he struggled at Tampa Bay in his first start. Bettis is known for making mistake pitches that lead to big hits and that will spell trouble against a Dodgers lineup that is on fire right now. LA is very familiar with Bettis and has enjoyed some success against him. The Dodgers are scoring an average of 8 runs per game this season. The Rockies are still "getting going" now that they are at home but their 6 runs Friday is a sign of things to come and I expect them to pound Urias. Big total here but it is not nearly big enough when you consider all pertinent factors in this one. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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04-06-19 | Red Sox v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:10 ET - This total did open up at a 9 and then it dropped to an 8.5 and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing the extra value and going with the over in this match-up. These teams combined for 23 runs yesterday. I don't expect them to get anywhere close to that today but just around half that (11 or 12) will do just fine for our purposes! The fact is that David Price can be a tough lefty but he did allow 4 earned runs in his first start and he is facing a Diamondbacks team that has pounded left-handed pitching so far this season. Also, Arizona starter Luke Weaver has bounced between the minors and the bigs in recent seasons and there is a reason for that. He showed again why that is by allowed 5 runs (4 earned) in less than 5 innings in his first start of this season. The right-hander now faces the defending World Champs and they'll build off scoring a bunch of runs in the latter innings of last night's game. Also, behind Weaver is a Dbacks bullpen that has been one of the worst in the majors so far this season. The normally brilliant Red Sox bullpen also has struggled and ranks only in the middle of the pack so far this season. The over is 7-2 this season in Boston's games and the Diamondbacks are 7-1 to the over. Until these trends start to turn around I see no reason to fade them. Since I like the pitching match-up here as well, I am looking for another one to eclipse the number today. 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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04-05-19 | Red Sox v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-15 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - As I mentioned when I used the over in his first start this season, even though Boston's Rick Porcello is a sinkerballer he has major trouble with giving up too many homers. The right-hander even went more and more to his slider last year and that didn't help matters. The fact is that Porcello entered this season having allowed 88 homers the past 3 seasons. There are only 2 other pitchers in the majors that allowed more over that span. Now the Red Sox right-hander certainly faces a challenge here as he pitches at Chase Field just like he did at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners were crushing the ball with 13 homers in their first 5 games of the season. Now Porcello faces a Diamondbacks team that has crushed 14 homers in their first 7 games this season! Porcello got rocked plus allowed a homer at Seattle and this was after allowing 4 homers in limited action in spring training. Look for the ball to continue to fly out of the yard in this one! The Red Sox righty will be opposed by Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Godley. He struggled badly in his first start this season and was roughed up for 7 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings. Godley goes from facing the World Series runner-up Dodgers to facing the World Champion Red Sox! In other words, the task at hand doesn't get any easier. I know the Boston sticks have been a little slow out of the gate this season but their last 4 games were at pitcher-friendly Oakland. Keep in mind their first 4 games saw them average 6 runs per game at Seattle and now the Red Sox finally play a series in a hitter-friendly venue. Also, the over is 6-1 in Diamondbacks games this season and 6-2 in Boston's games this season. The total on this one opened up at a 9 and dropped to an 8.5 and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am going opposite the line move and grabbing the added value with the over. Look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Porcello's career starts against Arizona. Also, the over is 28-10 when the Diamondbacks are playing after an off day. 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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04-05-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 4:10 ET - Can it snow in Denver in April? Of course and this is particularly true in early April. However, the weather for the Rockies home opener is going to be absolutely gorgeous and I expect the ball to be flying all over the park in this hitter-friendly venue Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be in the 70s and the air, as is typically the case at Coors Field, will be very dry. That means the ball carries very well and this is especially true on a warm afternoon. The Rockies Kenta Maeda has had some success here in the past but I don't expect a repeat today. His long-term numbers show that he has been roughed up in day games in 2 of his 3 seasons in the majors. Also, against left-handed sticks he struggles much more than against righties. Not only is Colorado likely to have more than half their lineup filled with left-handed lumber, the right-handed sticks that will be in the lineup are their most dangerous power hitters. In other words, Maeda will get "no breaks" up and down this lineup on Friday. Yes the Rockies struggled against pitcher-heavy Tampa Bay but their bats will come to life now that their finally at home. As for Colorado pitcher Tyler Anderson, struggles are likely here. The southpaw got hammered by the Marlins in his season opener and getting hit hard by the WORST lineup in baseball is a bad sign! Anderson did have a bit of a rough spring. Also, the Dodgers certainly have a potent lineup and they got to him for 4 runs (3 earned) in less than 3 innings of work the last time they faced Anderson at Coors. Against left-handed starters, Los Angeles is on an 83-50 run to the over. Also, though this total may seem "big", LA is actually 12-2 to the over in road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. The over is already 6-1 in Dodgers games this season and that high-scoring trend continues here with an early season slugfest at Coors. 8* OVER the total in Colorado |
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04-04-19 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 6.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Thursday 8* OVER the total in New York Mets vs Washington Nationals @ 1:10 ET - The earliest total posted on this game when lines first went up offshore yesterday was a 7.5 and now it is down to a 6.5 this morning. I certainly understand the move based on the long-term reputations of Noah Syndergaard and Stephen Strasburg. However, the result here is fantastic line value as we just need 3 runs from each team and we have ourselves a winner as the game can't end 3-3 so, in that scenario, at least 7 runs will be scored. Why should we expect teach team to get to at least 3 runs? These hurlers just squared off in DC last week and each gave up 4 earned runs. They didn't necessarily pitch poorly but there are some big sticks in each of these lineups that can do some damage. Of course that is part of the reason the over is 4-0 the Nationals last 4 games and 5-0 the Mets last 5 games! Additionally, Strasburg has allowed at least 3 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts versus the Mets. Syndergaard has allowed at least 3 runs in each of his last two outings versus the Nats. The New York bullpen has a 4.26 ERA and a .278 BAA this season and that ranks them in the bottom half of the league. The Washington bullpen has been a complete disaster with an 11.02 ERA and a .377 BAA. Yes, as you would expect with numbers like that, the Nationals rank dead last in the majors. Strasburg averaged 6 innings per start last season and has averaged 5 and 2/3 innings his last 3 starts versus Mets. We should see some of that league worst bullpen here! Take advantage of the low total. 8* OVER the total in New York Mets |
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04-03-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -121 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:40 ET - This total has dropped to as low as a 7 in some spots as of early Wednesday morning and that is offering great line value on the over. The Diamondbacks are a perfect 6-0 to the over this season and their games have averaged 15 runs per game which is, of course, double the opening total of 7.5 that was posted on this match-up. I understand the low total as Joey Lucchesi and Robbie Ray both merit some respect for sure. However, the key to the value here is that the Diamondbacks have been one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors early this season and they have given Lucchesi some issues in the past. On the flip side, Ray gets a lot of strikeouts but also usually has command issues and walks a lot of batters. That combination generally leads to short outings. Now enter the Dbacks bullpen. They have performed as one of the worst pens in the league early this season and Ray often lasts no more than 5 innings in his starts so we'll get some Arizona bullpen in this one for a good chunk of the game quite possibly. Last but not least, though Petco Park favors pitchers more than hitters, it is also true that day games are more favorable than night games on the West Coast. Again, couple all the above factors with a very low total here and you can see why I am expect the over to improve to a perfect 7-0 in Arizona games this season. The Diamondbacks have averaged 14 hits in their last 3 games and even the Padres reached double digits in hits yesterday. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
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04-03-19 | Twins v. Royals OVER 8.5 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins @ 1:15 ET - There is a lot to like here. First off the number of 8.5 gives us extra value as certainly 9 is a key number in baseball totals. We just need to get each team to 4 runs and we're guaranteed of cashing our ticket and I like our chances in that regard. Both teams reached double digits in hits yesterday and I know the game went 10 innings but both teams actually had reached 10 hits apiece by the 9th inning. So after swinging the bats quite well in a chilly evening game now they get an afternoon game in which temperatures will be warming possibly into the upper 60s and a fairly stout SSE wind blowing out to left field. That is not the scenario aptly named Homer Bailey wanted for this one. He consistently struggles in terms of giving up the long ball and last season he wrapped up the season allowing 23 hits including 3 homers in the 15 innings spanning his last 3 starts. I expect the Twins to get to him early and often. As for the Royals sticks, they should enjoy success against Kyle Gibson. I know the Minnesota right-hander can be tough at times but he has allowed 9 earned runs on 17 hits including 2 homers in his last 11 innings at Kauffman Stadium. Both of those starts were after the All Star break last season so it is not like this is dated history either. Gibson has recently struggled here and I expect more of the same Wednesday afternoon. The over is 3-0 in Royals last 3 games and 2-0 in Twins last 2 games. Expect more of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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04-02-19 | Phillies v. Nationals OVER 7 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:05 ET - It goes without saying that Max Scherzer is a fantastic pitcher. That said, the Phillies are familiar with him and Philadelphia now has one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball and is the only undefeated team on the season thus far. Of course Scherzer being on the mound is why this total is being held to a 7. The Phillies 1 through 8 is arguably the deepest lineup of any team in the league. In my opinion the weakest link is the guy they've been batting 6th and that is Odubel Herrera. Therein lies the key to this match-up. I really like the other 7 sticks in the lineup and, as for Herrera, he is hitting .341 against Scherzer and it is NOT a small sample size. That is over 41 at bats and includes 2 homers and 5 RBI. Don't be surprised if the Phillies do some damage tonight and note that the Nationals bullpen is a major question mark too! As for the Washington sticks, they certainly should have a big game here. Phillies starter Zach Eflin has proven much better at home than on the road in his young career. In his road starts he is 6-10 with a 5.80 ERA and has been hit at nearly a .300 clip. By the way, at Nationals park, he has been rocked in two career starts and the Nats have hit .400 against him there! The over is 2-1 in Eflin's 3 career starts against Washington and the over is 2-1 in Scherzer's last 3 starts against the Phils. The last 22 times Philadelphia has played a game with a posted total of 7 runs only 7 of the 22 stayed under the total. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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04-02-19 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 8.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 6:40 ET - Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday as the winds are starting to turn around to the south in Cincinnati. In a hitter-friendly park that does make a big difference. Jhoulys Chacin is a solid starter for the Brewers but he does struggle from time to time with allowing the big hits. He gave up two homers in his season opener versus St Louis. Also, he has lasted an average of just 5 innings in his last 3 starts at Cincinnati and he gave up 4 or more earned runs in 2 of the 3 outings. Behind him, note that the Brewers bullpen is dealing with injuries early this season. As for Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani, he is known for struggling against left-handed hitters and the Brewers have a number of dangerous hitters that will be stepping in on that side of the batters box tonight. DeSclafani has allowed 4 earned runs in EACH of his last 3 starts against Milwaukee. With a low total (8.5) to work with and my expectation that each team gets to at least 4 runs in this one, we have a great value spot here as this game ends with no less than a 5-4 final score in my opinion. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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03-31-19 | Red Sox v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #977 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox @ 4:10 ET - Even though Boston's Rick Porcello is a sinkerballer he has major trouble with giving up too many homers. The right-hander also went more and more to his slider last year and that didn't help matters. The fact is that Porcello has allowed 88 homers the past 3 seasons. There are only 2 other pitchers in the majors that allowed more over that span. Now the Red Sox right-hander certainly faces a challenge here as he pitches at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners are crushing the ball with 13 homers in their first 5 games this season. Porcello has allowed 4 homers in his last 2 visits to Seattle. He'll be opposed by Mariners southpaw Wade LeBlanc. The lefty had a strong outing when he faced the Red Sox in Seattle last season. However, his very next start was also against Boston but this time it was at Fenway. LeBlanc got crushed for 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. The point is the Red Sox certainly figured a few things out in reference to the soft-tossing lefty and they will pound him again here. Another key to the value with this play is both bullpens have been giving up their fair share of runs so far in this series. Look for a 4th straight over between these teams and that means the Mariners O/U mark will go to 6-0 on the season. I am going to ride this early season trend on Sunday. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
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03-28-19 | Cubs v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #933 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:05 ET - The Cubs Jon Lester was fortunate last season. His overall numbers look good but when you analyze advanced metrics he wasn't pitching nearly as well as you would think. Now he comes off a rough spring training and has to pitch at one of the most hitter friendly venues in baseball. Sometimes the Dallas-Fort Worth area can be quite cold in late March but it is going to be a very mild spring afternoon in DFW with the south winds blowing. Lester has allowed 14 hits in just 8+ innings in his last two opening starts. I do not expect this to go well for him. The Rangers are a much better hitting team when at home than on the road and though they strike out a lot the fact is that Lester is NOT the type of dominating strikeout pitcher that gives them trouble. He'll pitch to contact and Texas is going to do some damage. As for the Cubs bullpen, they are certainly weakened by the fact that closer Brandon Morrow is still out. The Rangers starter here is also a southpaw as Mike Minor gets the call. Rare opening day start for him plus he missed the 2015 and 2016 seasons due to injury and then was a reliever in 2017. I know he had a solid 2018 as a starter but he is still absolutely not your typical opening day starter and he is facing a helluva test here against a very powerful Cubs lineup. As for the Rangers sticks, for total runs they ranked 2nd in AL against left-handed pitching last season and also 4th in AL for total runs in home games. The Cubs had the #1 team batting average in the NL last season. It is with good reason that this total (9.5) is the biggest total on the board on opening day. Look for plenty of runs early and often in this one. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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10-27-18 | Red Sox v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | 9-6 | Win | 103 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
NOTE: The fact is that one could consider this play "action" as I really don't care who gets the start at pitcher for either team so please keep this in mind. This is an official 8* release for me no matter whom starts. As for now, Eduardo Rodriguez is now the scheduled starter for the Red Sox instead of Drew Pomeranz. This is as of about 4 hours prior to game time. This is still a play for me matter what as this play has a lot more to do with the extra arms being used up in last night's 18-inning affair than it has to do with the starting pitchers. However, I will add this: Rodriguez has a 5.82 ERA in the post-season anyway and I don't expect him to enjoy much success here nor do I expect him to last very long. In other words, this play on the OVER is still ON. Original write-up here: Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday's 18-inning game was a World Series record for longest game. When teams are forced to play what was essentially a double header on a day that was scheduled for just one game, a lot more pitching gets used up than a team would have ever expected. That said, there is value here with this over as most will be looking the way of under after each of the last two games have successfully landed under the total. I successfully played the under in Game 2 but made a poor call with the over in Game 3. Today I come right back with the over as the hitters should rule this game. Drew Pomeranz gets the start for the Red Sox and he hasn't made a start in nearly 3 months. Over his last 7 starts he has averaged about 4 innings per start! In other words, an already fatigued bullpen is likely to be called into play early. The over is 10-4-1 in the last 15 starts that Rich Hill has made. The southpaw is getting the call for the Dodgers here. He has lasted just 5 innings or less in 4 of his last 6 starts. Again, bullpen usage likely to be high for LA just as it is for Boston in this one. Mild weather again at Dodger Stadium this evening and, this time, the bats cooperate. 8* OVER the total in Los Angeles |
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10-26-18 | Red Sox v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - I successfully went with the under in Game 2 of this series but I expect Game 3 to play out much like Game 1 did in this World Series. The bats are simply too strong here in each lineup and high temperatures today are forecast to be in the low 80s today in Los Angeles. Very warm weather compared to what the teams played in back in Boston to open up this series. Temperatures will still be in the upper 70s at first pitch in this one at 5 Pacific Time in LA. Boston's Rick Porcello hasn't pitched at Dodger Stadium in many years but certainly the hitters didn't have any trouble tracking his pitches when he did! His two starts here in 2010 and 2011 saw him allow 7 earned runs on 18 hits in less than 11 innings of work! Porcello also get hit hard at Houston in the ALCS as he allowed 4 earned runs on 7 hits in just 4 innings of work. He'll be opposed by the Dodgers Walker Buehler. I know that overall Buehler has pitched well but he's been victimized lately by giving up big hits at the wrong time and there is no doubt that the Red Sox have been the most dangerous team in MLB this season in terms of getting big hits in clutch situations. So much pop in the Boston lineup and Buehler allowed 6 hits in less than 5 innings in his most recent post-season start and also allowed 9 earned runs in 12 innings in the two starts that preceded that one! The over is 15-8 this season when the Red Sox are playing after a day off. Boston is 12-4 to the over when a road dog in a money line range of +125 to +175 this season. Expect another one here! 10* OVER the total in the Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-24-18 | Dodgers v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 105 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #904 Wednesday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - The Red Sox scored 5 runs last night with 2 outs in an inning. Impressive clutch hitting for sure but, outside of that, 7 runs were scored in last night's game. The point being that now we're seeing a total of 8.5 in Game 2 even though it is going to be another chilly evening at Fenway Park and even though one should be considering a very important factor here. Are either of these starting pitchers likely to pitch as bad as Kershaw and Sale did last night? Think about it...their combined line was 8 earned runs allowed on 12 hits and 5 walks in their combined 8 innings. That is a poor effort to say the last. Don't be surprised if Hyun-Jin Ryu and David Price both give better efforts tonight. Ryu struggled at Milwaukee in the NLCS but the Red Sox don't have familiarity with him. Also, Price will still be riding high from his dominating effort at Houston that propelled Boston into this World Series. In starts where Price has been a favorite this season only 8 of 27 went over the total! Before Ryu's most recent start at Milwaukee went over the total, 10 of his last 14 night game starts had resulted in an under. I suspect this one will as well! Grab the added value as last night's results have resulted in a boosted total here when the reality is the starting pitching will likely prove to be much better on another chilly night at Fenway Park. 10* UNDER the total in Boston |
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10-19-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:35 ET - This total opened up at an 8 but is starting to drop to a 7.5 in some spots which comes as no surprise. After all, under has been the trend in this series. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am going with the over here. For one thing, Hyun-Jin Ryu got hit quite hard by the Brewers in his first start in this series. Secondly, the Dodgers have plenty of confidence right now as they've won back to back games in this series. So LA certainly won't be lacking for confidence at the plate as they've also averaged 5 runs per game in their last 4 road games. The Brewers scored a total of 9 runs in their two home games in this series and should have no trouble with Ryu. Additionally, the further you get into a series, the more a lineup gets to see the bullpen and so don't be surprised if there are a few more "connections" for each team against the opposing relievers in tonight's match-up. It all adds up to plenty of runs expected at Miller Park tonight. Look for the over to improve to 15-9 when the Brewers are playing after an off day. As for Los Angeles, the over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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10-17-18 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 113 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:35 ET - All 3 games in this series have flown over the total and I see no reason for that to change tonight in Game 4. The fact is that the Astros Charlie Morton has been on the mound for a total of just 4 innings since September 15th. He hasn't pitched in the post-season and he only threw 4 innings over his last two regular season starts. That doesn't bode well for him to come out and just dominate here. Keep in mind he relies on location of his breaking stuff to be successful and it is hard to be razor sharp when you haven't been pitching much at all. Certainly too the powerful Red Sox lineup has hitters than can make you pay if you're "off" also. Additionally, it won't be just the Boston lineup enjoying success tonight. Rick Porcello gets the start for the BoSox and he allowed 7 runs (6 earned) in 12 innings spanning his two starts against the Astros this season. The Red Sox right-hander served up 3 Houston homers in those two starts. The over is a long-term 19-8-1 in meetings between these teams and that includes 8-2 this season. 9 of the last 13 meetings between these teams in Houston have flown over the total. The over is 11-3 this season in Boston's road games when they are an underdog in a money line range of +125 to +175. Look for another one here as both bullpens have had their share of some struggles in this series too. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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10-17-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers OVER 7 | 2-5 | Push | 0 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Wednesday MLB 8* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 5:05 ET - Dodger Stadium is a pitcher-friendly park but the ball does carry better in day games here. Also, the Brewers Wade Miley is pitching on short rest and the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw did struggle at Milwaukee Friday. That said, with a total of only 7 here and temperatures expected to be near 80 degrees with a light breeze blowing out, this game has a great shot at easily going over the total. Keep in mind, both team used a lot of extra arms last night too because the game went 13 innings. I know the trend in this series has been under but Kershaw's start was the one that went over the total and Miley's start ended up being a game that did total 7 runs (which is currently the posted total on this one). With consideration to those factors as well as the other keys noted above, this game should fly over the low total in an afternoon game starting at 2 PM local time in LA Wednesday. 8* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-15-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers OVER 7 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:35 ET - This is an early start for a West Coast game as first pitch is at 4:35 local time when temperatures should be around 80 degrees at Dodger Stadium. Yes, this is a pitcher-friendly venue but with warm temperatures and an early start that does favor the hitters moreso than usual at Dodger Stadium. I know LA's Walker Buehler was done in by a big hit at Atlanta in his post-season start a week ago but it still shows he is certainly susceptible to pitching himself into a jam in a high-pressure situation and then paying for it. Certainly the Brewers have plenty of lumber that can do some damage and I like the low total posted on this game especially considering that both bullpens have had some "moments" already in this series! As for Milwaukee starter Jhoulys Chacin, he allowed 8 earned runs in just 4 and 1/3 innings in his start at Dodger Stadium in August. That doesn't bode well for success in his go-around as the Dodgers also are buoyed in terms of confidence after the big road win at Milwaukee Saturday. Los Angeles has played 30 games with a posted total of 7 runs this season and only 10 of the 30 have resulted in an under. Milwaukee is 14-8 to the over when playing after a day off. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-12-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 107 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - Of course playoff baseball generally leads to lower scoring games but this pitching match-up is likely to lead to an over and I am being a contrarian and looking for this one to easily get over the low total. The key here is two-fold. The Brewers Gio Gonzalez is pitching after a long layoff. Too much time between starts generally leads to struggles for starting pitchers in terms of locating their pitches properly and getting into a groove on the mound. As for the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw, the staff ace has been struggling in recent road starts. In fact, Kershaw has allowed 12 runs (11 earned) in his last 3 road starts spanning 17 innings. The over is a perfect 3-0 in those 3 starts. As for Gonzalez, only 3 of his last 10 starts have resulted in an under! He has been held to 5 innings or less in 6 of his last 9 starts. 2 of the last 3 starts Gonzalez has made this season have gone over the total. Also, 2 of the 3 games played between these teams at Miller Park this season went over the total. The Brewers have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their last 5 games at home. The Dodgers have averaged scoring 9 runs per game in their last 4 games on the road. Some confident sticks at the plate in this one. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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10-09-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #921 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET -Monday's game flew over the total and the over is now 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Overall, the over is now 9-1 in the Yankees last 10 games and 7-1 in Boston's last 8 games. Look for the huge run production to continue this evening between these teams on an evening with very mild weather for October in the Bronx tonight and light winds blowing out toward left. Boston's Rick Porcello has allowed 11 earned runs in just 20 innings in his last 4 road starts. He is not pitching deep in recent outings away from home and he also hasn't been overly dominant as you can see with those numbers. The Red Sox right-hander also gave up 5 earned runs in just 5 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees CC Sabathia allowed 3 earned runs in 3 innings in his most recent start versus the Red Sox and walked 4 in that short stint. Though his prior home start versus Boston went well, the one just prior to that in May saw Sabathia get crushed in the Bronx by the Red Sox. The point is that he has been roughed up more often than not in his outings versus the powerful Boston lineup. The Red Sox continued their assault on opposing pitchers in yesterday's blowout win. Look for both teams to pound the ball in this one. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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10-08-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 16-1 | Win | 102 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:40 ET - Even though Saturday's game just missed going over the total, the over is still 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Overall, the over is still 8-1 in the Yankees last 9 games and 6-1 in Boston's last 7 games. Look for normalcy to resume this evening between these teams on an evening with rather mild weather for October in the Bronx tonight. Luis Severino dropped off a lot with his 2nd half results compared to the 1st half of the season. Also, Rick Porcello has allowed 11 earned runs in just 20 innings in his last 4 road starts. He is not pitching deep in recent outings away from home and he also hasn't been overly dominant as you can see with those numbers. The Red Sox right-hander also gave up 5 earned runs in just 5 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start at Yankee Stadium. Severino was strong against Oakland in the wild card game and, no disrespect to the A's intended, the fact is the Red Sox lineup he is facing tonight is much stronger than that Athletics lineup. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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10-07-18 | Brewers v. Rockies OVER 9.5 | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 4:35 ET - It will be chilly in Denver for this game but at least it is an afternoon game which helps. The fact is that there are guys up and down the Brewers lineup that have enjoyed success versus the Rockies German Marquez. Also, Milwaukee is stepping into the batters box with a ton of confidence right now as the Brewers have won 10 straight games! The issue for the Brewers today will be on the mound as Wade Miley has pitched well overall for Milwaukee but he certainly isn't overpowering and there is no more dangerous place to pitch than Coors Field for opposing hurlers. The Rockies are the #1 home hitting team in MLB and, down 0-2 in this series, I expect a huge game from the Colorado sticks in this one. Look for the over to improve to 3-0 in Miley's last 3 starts and 3-0-1 in the last 4 starts Marquez has made! 8* OVER the total in Colorado |
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10-06-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 8:15 ET - David Price is known for struggling against the Yankees ever since he came to Boston. This has been particularly true at Yankee Stadium but, even when Price has faced the Yanks at Fenway Park, things haven't exactly gone smooth for the Boston southpaw. Earlier this season the Yankees knocked Price out of a start early - a game in which he lasted only 1 inning. Also, New York got to him for 4 earned runs in just 5 and 1/3 innings when they most recently faced him less than 3 weeks ago. He won't be the only starting pitcher struggling in this one. Masahiro Tanaka gets the start for the Yankees here and the right-hander compiled a 9.00 ERA in his final two starts of the season. Also, Tanaka compiled a 7.58 ERA in his four starts versus the Red Sox this season. The over is 4-1 in Price's last 5 starts this season. The over is 3-0-1 in Price's 4 starts versus the Yankees this season. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Tanaka's last 3 starts. Also, the over is 3-0-1 in his 4 starts versus the Red Sox this season. Overall, with yesterday's game flying over the total, the over is now 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. Overall, the over is 8-0 in the Yankees last 8 games and 6-0 in Boston's last 6 games. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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10-05-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 7:30 ET - It is true that the weather will be cool in Boston this evening as you would expect for early October. The point being that this is nothing new and this is still a hitter-friendly park. As a result, this total dropping to a 7.5 is offering excellent line value on the over. Keep in mind, the Red Sox bullpen struggled at times down the stretch run of the season and just how long will Chris Sale actually last in this game? Yes the Boston left-hander is a fantastic pitcher but his last 4 starts of the season averaged only 3 innings per game. Also, he has allowed 5 earned runs in 8 innings spanning his most recent two starts. Though he has impressive numbers against the Yankees in two starts this season he did allow 8 hits in 6 innings in his lone start versus the Bronx Bombers at Fenway Park. Also, the southpaw took the loss in two starts versus the Astros in the post-season last year and finished up that losing series with an 8.38 ERA. I know J.A. Happ has been strong for the Yankees since they got him but he did allow 9 runs (4 earned) in his two starts at Fenway Park this season. That includes the Red Sox having just faced him here last week. Also, Happ has a solid ERA in limited post-season action but he was very lucky because he has a 1.81 WHIP in his 19.1 innings of playoff work. That means he has allowed an average of nearly 2 baserunners per inning his career post-season appearances. That won't get the job done at Fenway Park I can tell you that much! Take advantage of the low total as the over improves to a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 games between these bitter rivals! 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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10-03-18 | A's v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 102 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #939 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Oakland A's @ 8:05 ET - The Yankees wrapped up the regular season on a 10-2 run to the over which included each of their last 6 games games going over the total. I expect that trend to continue here in the Wild Card game. We get a low total of 8.5 in this one and I look to take advantage of the low number. As the Yankees lineup has gotten healthier they've been hitting the ball better. They should enjoy success against the A's whom have designated this as a "bullpen game" as Liam Hendriks gets the start but he will only go an inning or so in this. Then it will be a combination of pitchers to try to get the job done against the powerful Yankees lineup. I don't expect that to go well. However, the good news for A's fans is that Oakland should enjoy plenty of success at the plate too. Luis Severino gets the start for the Yankees and he struggled in the post-season last year and also has struggled in the second half of this season. The Yankees right-hander went 5-6 with a 5.57 ERA and a .291 BAA after the All-Star break. Severino allowed 5 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work when he faced the Athletics in early September. Since July 1st, the over is 12-3 (80%) in Severino's last 15 starts. The over is 10-3-1 in Oakland's last 14 games. With both teams trending over and Severino's struggles likely to continue and fairly mild weather in the Bronx this evening, all signs are pointing to plenty of runs in this one. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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09-29-18 | Tigers v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Saturday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET -Â The Brewers are still battling for the NL Central Division title. The Tigers have now gone over the total in 3 straight games after yesterday's 6-5 loss. They'll now take advantage of facing Wade Miley, a pitcher they have familiarity with from his days in the AL. The Brewers left-hander has lasted 5 innings or less in each of his last 3 starts. Miley has walked as many as he has struck out as he seems to be fading late in the season. Detroit will have Daniel Norris on the mound and he has allowed 16 in his last 26 and 2/3 innings. Also, the Tigers lefty has been rocked for 19 hits in just 15 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The Brewers enter this game having won 8 of their last 10 games. Milwaukee has scored at least 6 runs in 7 of those 8 victories. The Tigers have allowed 6.4 runs per game in their last 13 games. Look for another wild one here as Norris is likely to get knocked out early, Miley also has not been working deep into games, and the Detroit bullpen has a 4.44 ERA and ranks in the lower third of the majors for bullpens. The over is on a long-term 75-49 run in Brewers games against left-handed starters. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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09-28-18 | Tigers v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #931 Friday 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Detroit Tigers @ 8:10 ET - The Brewers are still battling for the NL Central Division title. The Tigers game went over the total yesterday. They'll now take advantage of facing Zach Davies. The Brewers right-hander has lasted 5 innings or less in each of his last 6 starts. His ERA is 5.14 during this stretch. Detroit will have Jordan Zimmerman on the mound and he has allowed 10 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts versus the Brewers. Also, though he is off of a good outing versus the Royals in his last start, Zimmerman previously allowed 9 earned runs in less than 9 innings spanning his two prior starts. 5 of his last 6 starts have gone over the total. The Brewers enter this game having won 7 of their last 9 games. Milwaukee scored at least 6 runs in 6 of those 7 victories. The over is 13-7 in Brewers games when they are playing after a day off. The Tigers have allowed 6.6 runs per game in their last 12 games. Look for another wild one here as Zimmerman is likely to get knocked out early, Davies is on a pitch count, and the Detroit bullpen has a 4.42 ERA and ranks in the lower third of the majors for bullpens. 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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09-26-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:10 ET - Normally in a crucial late-season series packed with playoff pressure you might expect a tight low-scoring battle. That is the norm after all. But it all depends on the pitching match-ups and, as we saw yesterday, when the pitching match-up is conducive to an over, things can get crazy in a hurry! The Brewers were especially hot at the plate yesterday but the Cardinals have also been producing some big performances at the plate in recent games too. The fact is that both lineups should stay hot this evening based on this pitching match-up. Milwaukee's Jhoulys Chacin did have a strong start versus the Cardinals in mid-August but he entered that start with an 11.00 ERA in his two prior starts versus St Louis this season! Also, he has not been able to pitch very deep into games of late and the Brewers bullpen got a lot of work in yesterday's game as did the Cardinals. St Louis could see their pen called upon early again here too because John Gant has struggled in his last two starts with 7 earned runs allowed in just 7 innings and command (7 walks in 7 innings) continues to be an issue for him. Also, against the Brewers he has a 1.92 WHIP in two career starts. The big bats of Milwaukee make you pay more often than not when you're allowing too many baserunners and that has been a recurring them for Gant. With yesterday's 12-4 Brewers win, the over is now 8-0 in the Cardinals last 8 starts. The over is on an 11-6 run in Chacin's last 17 starts. Look for another slugfest Wednesday. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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09-26-18 | Royals v. Reds OVER 9 | 6-1 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #929 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:40 ET - I am well aware of the fact that, with yesterday's game staying just under the total, the Reds have a very long "under streak" in progress. However, that streak was attained on the road and Cincinnati is a different team at the plate when at home. Yesterday they scored just 3 runs on 9 hits but that was their first game at Great American Ball Park in weeks. Prior to that game, the Reds had recorded just 6 unders in their last 18 home games and I expect the bats to come back to life tonight. Though Cincinnati starter Cody Reed has had some surprising success of late, the long-term numbers don't like. Also, the Royals have gone 3-1 in their last 4 games versus a left-handed starter. As for Kansas City starter Heath Fillmyer, he has an 8.85 ERA and 1.97 WHIP on the road this season! The over is 3-1 in his last 4 starts. As for the bullpens here, the Reds pen ERA ranks them 18th out of the 30 teams in the majors while the Royals bullpen ERA ranks them dead last in the American League. Look for plenty of runs here at a hitter-friendly ball park on Wednesday evening. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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09-25-18 | Astros v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Tuesday MLB 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros @ 7:05 ET - I got burned with the over in this match-up yesterday as I had over 9 for a big play and the game was 4-3 Houston through 5 innings and ended up a 5-3 game. I am coming right back with the same play today. The Astros Josh James has been fantastic in two starts for Houston but the rookie has shown he is more susceptible to lefties. Against left-handed bats he has a 1.65 WHIP so far. The Blue Jays roster has 4 switch-hitters and 4 left-handed bats. A couple of those guys were not in the starting lineup yesterday (faced a lefty pitcher Dallas Keuchel) but you can bet they will be back out there today. The key point being that the majority of the lineup that James faces will be stepping into the batters box on the left side of the plate. The Jays will get their runs here but it is the Astros whom also should pound the ball. Houston will be facing Sam Gaviglio and he has a 6.06 ERA in his night starts and has a 5.79 ERA (plus has been hit at a .305 clip) since the All Star break. The Astros got to him for 5 earned runs in 6 innings when they last faced him. More of the same expected here. In Gaviglio's 6 home starts since the All Star break, the over is 5-1. The over is a long-term 47-24 in Astros road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. 8* OVER the total in Toronto |
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09-25-18 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins @ 7:05 ET - Of course the Nationals are a huge favorite (even on the run line) in this one but if you truly believe Washington is going to have a big day at the plate (and I do strongly believe that), there is another much more economical way to get involved here. The over opened at only a 7.5 because Max Scherzer is on the mound for the Nats. Now of course he is a great pitcher but, keep in mind, he has one more regular season start after this and he can't get to 20 wins. His only real motivation is to get to 300 strikeouts and he has 290 so he has two starts to pick up 10. The point is that with playoff elimination a virtual certainty for Washington, there is no need to over-work Scherzer here. Plus he has a 5.40 ERA in his last 3 starts and the Marlins have scored an average of 5 runs per game in their last 3 games. Of course once he has out of the game a "middle of the pack" Nationals bullpen will be in play here. Speaking of bullpens, Miami ranks as the worst in MLB on the year and they could be called upon early. Marlins starter Jeff Brigham is 0-3 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in his first 3 starts. Walks continue to be an issue for him and now he faces a Nationals lineup that has scored 6 or more runs in 3 straight games. More of the same here and, considering Brigham has averaged just 4 innings per start and the Miami bullpen is a major weakness, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nats get this total by themselves. However, look for the Marlins to contribute quite well. The over is 3-0 in Scherzer's last 3 starts and I expect another one today. As a road dog of +240 or more this season the Marlins are 7-0 to the over. Combined 10-0 / 100% perfect streak tested here. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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09-24-18 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Monday 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - Yes it will be cool in Boston this evening but that is nothing unusual for late September. The Red Sox were 4-0 to the over (and had averaged scoring 7.3 runs per game) in their 3 games prior to yesterday's 4-3 loss. As for the Orioles, they are off of a 6-3 win over the Yankees yesterday that was the 3rd straight game in which Baltimore tallied at least a dozen hits! While the O's have been hot at the plate, one can also expect the Red Sox to bounce right back at the plate tonight. The last time Boston faced the Orioles Bundy, they got to him for 7 earned runs in just 5 innings of work. As for Red Sox starter Eovaldi, he has averaged less than 4 innings per start in his last 3 start. Also, prior to this he allowed 14 earned runs on 35 hits in just 18 innings spanning his 4 previous starts! That included getting crushed at Baltimore. Look for the red hot Orioles sticks to get to him once again and this should be an easy over. 8* OVER the total in Boston |
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09-24-18 | Astros v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros @ 7:05 ET - The Blue Jays Marco Estrada and the Astros Dallas Keuchel matched up on June 27th and that game totaled 13 runs. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar end result tonight. Houston's Keuchel has seen the over go 4-1 in his 5 starts versus the Jays in his career. Toronto's Estrada enters this start off of a solid outing at Baltimore but this certainly has been the exception rather than the norm lately for the Blue Jays right-hander. He entered that start having been crushed to the tune of a 12.60 ERA over his 4 prior starts. The Astros game yesterday ended up being a push to the total so they are still on a 3-0 run to the over entering this match-up. Also, in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, Houston is on a long-term 47-23 run to the over. As a road favorite of -175 or more, the Astros are on a 21-10 run to the over. As a home underdog of +175 or more, the Blue Jays are 20-8 to the over! Only 1 of Keuchel's last 5 road starts have remained under the total. The Jays lost 5-2 yesterday but had previously won 6 of their last 8 games and averaged scoring 5 runs per game. The point being that the Jays are still playing hard to close out the season while the Astros are working hard to try and lock up the AL West title. Houston has won 6 of their last 8 games and averaged scoring 6 runs per game in the process. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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09-23-18 | Red Sox v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Talk about relaxed hitters at the plate...the Red Sox have clinched the AL East and the the Indians have clinched the AL Central. Neither lineup wants to lose their "rhythm" right before the playoffs either. In other words guys are "locked in" at the plate but certainly not feeling any pressure either. That leads to some high-scoring games in match-ups like these with two sub-par pitchers. The Red Sox hand the ball to Hector Velazquez and he has allowed 10 earned runs in less than 7 innings spanning his last two starts. The Tribe will hand the ball to Adam Plutko and he got rocked by Boston last month and he enters this start in poor overall form. The Indians right-hander has allowed 9 earned runs in less than 11 innings spanning his last two starts plus he gave up 3 homers in EACH of those starts! The over is 5-0 in Boston's last 5 games. The over is 2-0 in the last 2 starts Velazquez has made. Last but certainly not least, the over is a perfect 7-0 this season in Indians home games in which their money line is ranging from -125 to +125. This is combined trending of 14-0 / 100% PERFECT in favor of the over in this match-up. Look for a slug-fest Sunday evening at Progressive Field. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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09-23-18 | Angels v. Astros OVER 8 | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #973 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels @ 2:10 ET - I know Chris Morton has great numbers on the season and Houston is still battling to try to lock up the AL West division. However, Morton allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings in his only start versus the Angels this season. Los Angeles has a potent lineup and their games continue to fly over the total. With yesterday's 10-5 Astros win, the over is now 8-2 in the Angels last 10 games and 5-0 their last 5. As for Houston's lineup, they should have no trouble with the offerings of the Angels Tyler Skaggs. He has slumped and has a 15.84 ERA and 2.48 WHIP in his last 3 starts! The over is 7-3 in the Astros last 10 games and they've scored an average of 10.5 runs per game so far in this series. I'll take advantage of the low total here and look for the over to improve to 4-1 in Skaggs last 5 starts. 8* OVER the total in Houston |
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09-22-18 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles @ 4:05 ET - Yesterday the Orioles got to the Yankees bullpen for 6 runs in 3 innings! Today the Yankees starter is Lance Lynn and he has averaged just 5 innings per start over his last 7 starts! In other words there could be plenty of bullpen damage being done again today. Also helping the cause is that Lynn is off of back to back solid outings but he had previously allowed 19 earned runs in 18 and 2/3 innings over his prior 4 starts. He has been "on the fade" for awhile and I like the fact that the Orioles saw him in July and he only had two strikeouts in that game. Baltimore has gotten to Lynn for 24 hits in just 16 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts against them. As for the O's starter, David Hess, he is off of a start in which he allowed 3 homers and that is bad news as he now faces the Bronx Bombers. The Yankees lineup has been bolstered recently with guys getting healthy again and the ball was flying out of the park last night and should continue to do so this afternoon. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 starts Hess has made as he has compiled an unimpressive 6.08 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in those outings. As a home favorite in a money line range of -250 to -330, the Yankees are now 10-3 to the over this season. Just like yesterday's slugfest, this one should fly over the total easily. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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09-21-18 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees, despite last night's loss to the Red Sox, are still in great shape in terms of notching a wild card berth. However, they haven't clinched yet and, as a result, they'll continue to field strong lineups with their regular starters until they do so. That said, as downtrodden as the Orioles have been this season, they'd still love to play the role of spoiler as much as possible here and I expect Baltimore to have a big night at the plate against CC Sabathia. The Yankees southpaw is on the fade of late as he has a 9.29 ERA in his last 3 starts. He allowed 3 homers in his most recent start which was versus Toronto. Also, in his last 3 starts versus the Orioles (all this season) Sabathia has a 6.00 ERA and has given up 5 homers in 15 innings! As for Baltimore starter Yefrey Ramirez, he is certainly also likely to struggle in this one. He is 0-2 versus the Yankees this season with a 10.00 ERA in his two outings. The over is 6-3 in the Yankees last 9 games. The over is 3-0 in the Orioles last 3 road games. As a home favorite in a range of -250 to -330, Yankees games are 9-3 to the over this season. Look for another slugfest in this one! 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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09-20-18 | Angels v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 3-21 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels @ 3:35 ET - The A's drilled the Angels 10-0 last night. The over is now 13-4 in Oakland's last 17 games. Also, Los Angeles is 7-1-1 to the over this season when they are off of a shutout loss. In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, only 6 of Oakland's 19 games have stayed under the total. The Angels Matt Shoemaker has allowed 6 earned runs on 12 hits in less than 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts. He also has a rather poor 1.59 WHIP in his last two starts versus Oakland and certainly this Athletics lineup is surging right now! Edwin Jackson gets the start for the A's here and, though he was successful in his most recent start versus the Angels, don't be surprised if the quick second look (just saw him last month) gives LA the edge in the rematch. Jackson struggled badly and allowed 4 earned runs in just 3 innings in his most recent home start. The over is 2-1 in Jackson's last 3 starts and 2-1 in Shoemaker's 3 road starts this season. More of the same expected on a mild afternoon in Oakland with the wind blowing out toward right field. The Angels had averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their 3 games prior to being shutout last night. The A's are 10-1 to the over in their last 11 home games as they remain especially hot at the plate in their home games. 10* OVER the total in Oakland |
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09-19-18 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | 0-4 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets @ 6:05 ET - The Mets Noah Snyndergaard and the Phillies Zach Eflin each have strong enough numbers on the season that this total is being kept lower than it should be. The total opened up at a 7.5 and the key here is that this is a match-up issue for each hurler. Syndergaard has allowed 8 earned runs on 20 hits in just 12 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts versus the Phillies. As for Eflin, he has allowed 13 earned runs in just 14 and 2/3 innings spanning his last three starts versus the Mets. These guys were matched up on the 8th of this month and the game totaled 15 runs. Prior to last night's game staying just under the total, the Phillies were on an overall 7-2 run to the over and the Mets had stayed under the total just 4 times in their 13 prior games. The over is 6-3 in Eflin's divisional starts this season and I expect more of the same on Wednesday as both of these starters are likely to struggle. Take advantage of the low total in this one. 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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09-19-18 | Cardinals v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs St Louis Cardinals @ 12:10 ET - The Cardinals crushed extra base hits all over the park in Monday's 11-6 win. Both bullpens struggled in that game. Then, in Tuesday's game, it also went over the total despite the Braves going 0 for 5 with runners in scoring position plus leaving 12 men on base in the 8-1 defeat. The fact is Atlanta's struggling bullpen let them down again and the St Louis pen has struggled recently too but managed to escape damage last night. The Cardinals are one of the top teams in the majors for slugging percentage on the road. Atlanta is among the top teams in the majors for slugging percentage in day games. Cards starter Jack Flaherty has walked 9 in the 10 innings spanning his last two road starts. Braves starter Touki Toussaint walked 5 in less than 6 innings in his most recent start. Both starters have struggled some with command and are facing dangerous (and hot) lineups that will make you pay if you get behind in the the count against. The over is 3-0 in Toussaint's 3 starts this season. Also, he'll be facing a Cardinals lineup that has plenty of confidence at the plate right now. They have crushed the ball again in this series and the Cards are 8-0 in Atlanta in their last 8 games there and 7 of the 8 have gone over the total. In fact, in all match-ups between these teams (including those in St Louis), the over is 14-3 in the last 17 games! With the way both bullpens have struggled recently and the fact that neither one of these starters has been working deep into games lately, plus a manageable total in the 8.5 range as of early Wednesday morning, you have a nice set-up here for what should be an easy over. Also, the over is 9-4 in the Braves last 13 games. Atlanta, when past the midway point of a season and facing a team with a wining record on the year, have gone 73-46 to the over. Look for all of the aforementioned trends to add another W on the over side of the ledger early Wednesday. 8* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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09-18-18 | Cardinals v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:35 ET - The Cardinals were crushing extra base hits all over the park in last night's 11-6 win. Both bullpens struggled in that game. St Louis is one of the top teams in the majors for slugging percentage on the road. Atlanta is among the top teams in the majors for batting average versus left-handed pitching. Cards southpaw Austin Gomber has allowed 25 hits in the 16 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The lefty has given up 10 earned runs in the 9 innings over his last two starts. As for the Braves starter in this one, Anibal Sanchez issued 5 walks in just 6 innings in his most recent start. He'll be facing a Cardinals lineup that has plenty of confidence at the plate right now. They crushed the ball last night and the Cards are 7-0 in Atlanta in their last 7 games there and 6 of the 7 have gone over the total. In fact, in all match-ups between these teams (including those in St Louis), the over is 13-3 in the last 16 games! With the way both bullpens struggled last night and the fact that both of these starters are likely to encounter some tough times in the early going of this one, plus a manageable total in the 8.5 range as of early Tuesday morning, you have a nice set-up here for what should be an easy over. Also, the over is 8-4 in the Braves last 12 games. St Louis is 8-4 to the over the last 12 times they've been a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. The Braves, when past the midway point of a season and facing a team with a wining record on the year, have gone 72-46 to the over. Look for all of the aforementioned trends to add another W on the over side of the ledger Tuesday evening. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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09-17-18 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals @ 7:10 ET - Erick Fedde is off of a surprisingly strong start in his last outing but he faced the Phillies in the middle of a major slump. Prior to that outing Fedde had compiled a 6.26 ERA while allowing 35 hits in just 27 and 1/3 innings spanning his 6 prior starts. In other words, one shouldn't over-react to one strong start from Fedde and I look for him to struggle at Miami tonight. Of course the Marlins are likely to have pitching issues of their own here. Not only is the Marlins bullpen (5.47 ERA) ranked dead last in the majors this season, starting pitcher Trevor Richards has been struggling. The over is 5-0-1 in Richards last 6 starts as he has allowed 23 earned runs on 31 hits in just 27 and 1/3 innings of work. The over is 3-0 overall in the Marlins last 3 games and Washington is 8-4 to the over in their last 12 games. Look for more of the same on Monday as both starters struggle. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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09-16-18 | Dodgers v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - The Dodgers Ross Stripling has averaged less than 5 innings per start in his 4 starts since the All Star break. In those outings, the LA right-hander has compiled a 5.50 ERA and has given up 21 hits in 18 innings. He hasn't been as sharp as usual nor as he been as strong as usual. As for the Cardinals Adam Wainwright, he allowed 2 homers in his return to the rotation on Monday and that was against a Pirates team that certainly has not been swinging the bats like this Dodgers team has. Los Angeles, after yesterday's blowout win over the Cards, has averaged scoring 6.6 runs per game their last 11 games. As for the Cardinals sticks, they have averaged scoring 5.6 runs per game their last 11 games. Only 38 of the Dodgers 91 games versus right-handed starters this season have stayed under the total. St Louis is 8-3-1 to the over, including 3-0 this season, in games where they are a home underdog in a range of +125 to +175. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season when the Cardinals enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more consecutive games. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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09-15-18 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 4:05 ET - The Yankees rolled 11-0 yesterday. They have been crushing Blue Jays pitching including now having scored an average of 9.8 runs in their last 4 games versus Toronto. As you would expect, all 4 of those games went over the total. The Yanks sticks should certainly stay hot today as they face a struggling Sean Reid-Foley going for the Jays in this one. When he faced the Yankees last month he gave up 6 earned runs in 4 and 1/3 innings. In his most recent start (last Saturday versus Indians) he allowed 6 earned runs in just 4 and 2/3 innings. You can see why struggles are expected for Reid-Foley here and lets also not forget that Jays relievers have also been getting lit up by Yankees hitters in recent meetings. As for Yanks starter CC Sabathia, I am well aware that he has some decent numbers in recent starts against Toronto. However, his recent form has not been too impressive. Sabathia has a 5.65 ERA over his last 3 starts. The over is 44-25 in Blue Jays road games this season. Also, when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games, Toronto has gone 13-4 to the over this year. After allowing 10 or more runs in a game this season, the Jays over is 8-3. Expect another high-scoring game this afternoon in the Bronx. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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09-15-18 | Tigers v. Indians OVER 8 | 0-15 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Saturday MLB 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Detroit Tigers @ 3:10 ET - Low total here because both of these pitchers have some good numbers on the season. However, last night's 5-4 Tigers win fell just short of going over the total and I like the fact that Detroit's Michael Fulmer has a 6.32 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 5.62 ERA in road starts this season! He allowed 9 runs (6 earned) in just 3 innings in his most recent start at Cleveland. The Indians Mike Clevinger has been solid against the Tigers this season but certainly hasn't been unhittable and they'll be seeing him for the 3rd time in a span of 3 months. I also like the fact that Detroit has scored an average of 7.2 runs per game in their last 5 road games with added confidence at the plate thanks to winning 4 of their last 5 away from home. Of course the Indians have been run producers at home all season long as they've averaged 5.5 runs per game at Progressive Field. The Tribe should have no trouble with the offerings of Fulmer as well as a weak Tigers bullpen. The over is a long-term 41-25 in Detroit's September games. The over is 22-14 in Indians games this season when they are a home favorite in a money line range of -175 to -250. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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09-14-18 | White Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 106 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - I know the White Sox, after a pretty strong run at the plate, have cooled off recently. However, the fact is that the Orioles Luis Ortiz should certainly bring out the best in them. This will be his first ever start at the MLB level and, in fact, he has only made 6 starts at the AAA level in the minors and he got hit at a .274 clip in those outings. Making the jump essentially from AA ball to the MLB level is a big jump and Ortiz has made one appearance at the MLB level and he recorded only 2 outs while being charged with 3 earned runs so he has a 40.50 ERA with the O's thus far. As for the Baltimore sticks, they have been much stronger at home than on the road in recent weeks and they should pound James Shields. The veteran right-hander gets the call for the White Sox here and he is 1-7 with a 5.82 ERA on the road this season. Also, Shields has allowed 14 earned runs on 21 hits (including 4 homers) in the 13 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Orioles. The over is 14-7 in ChiSox Friday games this season. Also, when the Pale Hose are facing a team with a losing record, the over is 25-12 their last 37 games. The Orioles are 4-2 in their last 6 home games and certainly tend to hit better at home. Adding to the value with this totals plays is that both of these bullpens (Chicago and O's) rank among the worst in the majors this season. Look for runs early, often, and throughout this one! 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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09-13-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 10 | 3-10 | Push | 0 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:10 ET - After 5 straight overs, each of Arizona's last two games have stayed just under the total as they've both landed on 9 runs. Look for that to change in this afternoon affair at Coors Field on a hot day in Denver. The ball will carry very well today. I know the Rockies Kyle Freeland has pitched very well of late but this will be the 4th time the Diamondbacks are seeing him in a span of 3 months. The southpaw has given up 4 earned runs in 2 of those 3 meetings and he had as many walks as strikeouts in the most recent match-up with Arizona. Clay Buchholz has also been pitching well but the Dbacks starter will be making his first ever start at Coors Field. This hitter-friendly ballpark always tends to be tough on starters making their first appearance here and Buchholz did allow 3 homers in 5 innings in his only career start versus the Rockies. Now he faces them in very hitter-friendly conditions on a hot and dry afternoon in Denver where the ball is going to be jumping off of the bats and carrying very, very well. The Rockies have won 8 of their last 11 games and they've averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. Trend players will be on the under in this match-up but for the reasons noted above, the key to the outcome on this total is the pitching match-up and the weather and both those angles point toward a slugfest! 8* OVER the total in Colorado |
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09-12-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:40 ET - The calendar says it is mid-September but it certainly won't feel like it today in Denver. High temperatures are topping out in the 90s and I expect hot bats to resume their work at Coors Field this evening as well. Yesterday's game stayed just under the total but the Rockies and Diamondbacks are primed to have big performances at the plate this evening. The over was 5-0 in Arizona's 5 games prior to yesterday's under. The Diamonbacks have averaged scoring 5 runs per game their last 7 games. The Rockies have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in going 7-3 their last 10 games. Jon Gray gets the start for Colorado here and he has just 6 strikeouts in his last 3 starts and also walked 5 batters in his most recent start. He also has given up 7 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts versus the Dbacks. Arizona starts Patrick Corbin tonight and the southpaw has given up 12 hits (including 2 homers) in his last 10 innings versus the Rockies. His last two road starts were strong but those were in pitcher friendly venues. Corbin had allowed at least 3 earned runs in 3 of his 4 prior road starts and also labored in his most recent start at Colorado. Look for the over to improve to 24-16 in Arizona's road games with a money line range of -125 to +125 this season. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams as the Dbacks have averaged 5.8 runs per game their last 5 versus Colorado and the Rockies, prior to yesterday's quiet night, had averaged 7.8 runs per game in their 4 prior games versus Arizona. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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09-12-18 | Braves v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves @ 3:45 ET - Even though this is a totals play I am going to first talk about the money line in this match-up. The reason is because it is part of what led me to a play on the total in this one. The Giants entered yesterday's action having lost 9 straight (and went on to lose their 10th straight last night) and when lines first came out yesterday afternoon for today's games, San Francisco opened up as the favorite in this match-up. Do you really believe that the odds makers believe that Derek Holland is going to throw a gem against a Braves team that has hit lefties very well this season? Of course the reason for the line is because it is expected that this slumping San Francisco team will do some damage against Anibal Sanchez. Of course, understandably, the whole world is jumping on the Braves here but I feel the best value in this match-up is with the over. Atlanta's Sanchez has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 3 of his last 5 starts even though he has only completed 6 innings once in those 5 outings. The Giants will do some damage at the plate here as the ball does carry better in day games at AT & T Park and the wind will be blowing out at a strong clip this afternoon. As for Holland, he is highly unlikely to shut down a Braves team that has scored an average of 5.7 runs per game their last 7 games. The Giants lefty, though he has a low ERA in his last 3 starts, has walked 11 batters during this stretch and Atlanta's .338 on base percentage versus lefties is 3rd in the majors. The over was 5-1 in the Braves 6 games prior to yesterday's tight win. The over trending resumes this afternoon in a big way. 8* OVER the total in San Francisco |
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09-12-18 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 9 | 8-1 | Push | 0 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Wednesday 7* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 12:35 ET - Prior to yesterday's low-scoring loss, Reds games had gone over the total in 4 straight. As a home dog of +175 or more, Cincinnati is on a multi-season run of 12-2 to the over. The Dodgers are 6-3 to the over as a road favorite of -175 or more this season. The over was 4-2 in LA's 6 games prior to last night's 3-1 loss. The Dodgers Ross Stripling has struggled recently and has a 6.13 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Reds Anthony DeSclafani has a 6.20 ERA in his last 4 starts and he each of his last 3 starts have gone over the total. 7* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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09-11-18 | Indians v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:10 ET - The Rays are one of the hottest teams in the majors and, of course, rolling with momentum after rallying in the bottom of the 9th for last night's 6-5 win. Tampa Bay has now won 8 of its last 9 games and the Rays have averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this hot streak! As for the Indians, they have have averaged scoring 5.6 runs per game their last 7 games. This pitching match-up looks conducive to another high-scoring game tonight. Cleveland's Shane Bieber has a 5.83 ERA in his last 3 starts and the Tribe have not recorded a single under in any of his last 4 starts. As for the Rays Tyler Glasnow, he got destroyed by the Blue Jays in the 1st inning of his last start. Though he'll certainly perform better than that outing (didn't even get out of first inning) here, I do expect the young right-hander to still see some negative "carry-over effects" from that poor outing at Toronto. His prior start was a beauty against these same Indians but now he gives the dangerous another look at him less than 2 weeks later. That usually doesn't bode well for young starting pitchers and that is especially true when they're coming off of an outing like Glasnow just had at the Rogers Centre. Look for the over to improve to 14-7 in Cleveland's Tuesday games this season while the Rays over streak reaches 5 in a row with another high-scoring affair tonight. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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09-11-18 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 9 | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Tuesday 7* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 6:40 ET - The Reds Luis Castillo gets the start for Cincinnati here. The Reds are just 2-4 in his last 6 starts as he has been struggling! Of course that is why the Dodgers are a big favorite tonight and I do expect them to hit Castillo very well. However, don't be surprised if Cincinnati also hits well tonight. Yes, LA's Hyun-Jin Ryu has some impressive numbers on the season but the Reds (.271 batting average) are actually one of the top hitting teams in the majors this season against left-handed pitching. As for the Dodgers, their .440 slugging percentage in road games this season ranks them 2nd in the National League as they are certainly one of the top slugging teams in the majors when away from pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Castillo has given up 5 homers in his last 3 starts and he is facing a Los Angeles team that has averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their last 6 games. The Reds lineup also comes into this game hot at the plate as they are averaging scoring 9 runs per game in their last 4 games! The over is 12-6 in the Dodgers last 18 games against teams with a losing record while the over is 26-16 in the Reds last 42 games against teams with a winning record. More of the same expected here as Ryu has allowed 26 hits in the 18 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. 7* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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09-10-18 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 6:40 ET - The Reds Cody Reed will be making his 15th career start for Cincinnati. The Reds are 0-14 so far in those starts! Of course that is why the Dodgers are a big favorite tonight and I do expect them to hit Reed well. However, don't be surprised if Cincinnati also hits well tonight. Yes, LA's Alex Wood has been pitching very well but the Reds (.270 batting average) are actually one of the top hitting teams in the majors this season against left-handed pitching. As for the Dodgers, their .440 slugging percentage in road games this season ranks them 2nd in the National League as they are certainly one of the top slugging teams in the majors when away from pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Reed gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings at Pittsburgh last week and he is facing a Los Angeles team that has averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their last 5 games. The Reds lineup also comes into this game hot at the plate as they just finished up taking 2 of the final 3 games of a 4-game set with the Padres thanks to averaging 8 runs per game in those 3 games! The over is 11-6 in the Dodgers last 17 games against teams with a losing record while the over is 10-5 in Reds Monday games this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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09-10-18 | Astros v. Tigers OVER 8 | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Monday 8* OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros @ 6:10 ET - The Astros are a huge favorite here so, of course, they're expected to win this game by a multiple run margin. While Houston is too pricey to play as they are a heavy money line favorite and also a 2 to 1 favorite on the run line, the best way to get involved here is the over. Not only are the Astros expected to pound Francisco Liriano, there is reason to believe the Tigers will do some damage against Justin Verlander. Detroit faced the former Tiger in Houston two months ago and though they struck out a lot they did hit 4 homers against him. As for Liriano, he has allowed 7 hits in each of his last 3 starts even though he averaged only 4 and 2/3 innings per start! Each of his last 4 starts have gone over the total and the Tigers southpaw has allowed 14 earned runs in 16 and 1/3 innings spanning those 4 outings! Though Verlander has great numbers on the season he could "over-throw" here in his return to Comerica Park as he looks to have a huge start in his return and he has had some problems with giving up "the big hit" from time to time. Though it will be cool in Detroit this evening, the earlier start time and a light breeze blowing out also help the cause some here. The Astros have averaged nearly 6 runs per game their last 8 games. The Tigers have averaged 6 runs per game their last 7 games. Take advantage of the low total here as the Astros might even get this total by themselves as Liriano's struggles continue and, keep in mind, the Tigers bullpen is a weakness. 8* OVER the total in Detroit |
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09-09-18 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #977 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday's game stayed just under the total. Even though it will be a cool, fall-like evening at Fenway Park tonight, I like the over in this series finale based on the pitching match-up. The Astros Dallas Keuchel got rocked for 8 earned runs in 6 innings the last time he pitched at Fenway Park. Overall, each of his last two starts versus Boston have resulted in an over. As for the Red Sox pitching, their bullpen has been struggling in recent weeks. That could be a factor here because I expect starting pitcher Rick Porcello to struggle some too. The right-hander has a 6.46 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Astros. Not only does that hold significance here, note that Houston has won 7 straight games and is averaging 6 runs per game. In other words, this is a very confident Astros lineup that will be stepping into the batters box versus Porcello tonight. Though the Red Sox bats have been quieter than usual so far in this series, they still have averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their last 4 home games. Boston's issue will be the fact that Porcello has not pitched more than 5 innings in any of his last 3 starts and that means a struggling bullpen is likely to be called upon early tonight. Only 3 of Porcello's 12 home starts (25%) have resulted in an under this season! Though this total may drop to an 8.5 it will likely remain at a 9 in many spots and the over is a long-term 47-23 in Astros road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Despite yesterday's result, the over is still a solid 7-2 this season in Red Sox home games where their money line ranges from a +125 to a -125. That over trend resumes tonight. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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09-08-18 | Marlins v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -125 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Saturday MLB 7* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins @ 1:05 ET - The Pirates Ivan Nova got roughed up in his most recent start and then skipped his last start to attend to a personal matter. You can see what I see here. A distracted starter whom isn't even that solid when he is truly focused. Nova got hit at .315 clip in the month of July plus then in August he went 1-3 with a 4.44 ERA. As for the Marlins Wei-Yin Chen, he has made some solid starts of late but the key with him is whether he is on the road or at home. Note that Chen is a horrible 1-6 with a 9.35 ERA on the road this season. On a rather cool early afternoon start at Pittsburgh I don't expect the southpaw to ever really get comfortable against a Pirates team that has scored 13 runs in their last two games against left-handed starters. Of course both of those games went over the total and this one should too. The Marlins entered Friday's action on a 7-1 run to the over and should have no trouble with the offerings of Nova while the Bucs lineup pounds away at Chen as his season-long road struggles continue. 7* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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09-07-18 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Friday 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros @ 7:10 ET - Of course two very potent lineups matched up here but we're getting line value because two highly respected starting pitchers are on the mound. The key to the value here is that the Astros Gerritt Cole is pitching at Fenway Park where he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start. Also David Price took a line drive off of the wrist area of his pitching arm in his most recent start. Now he faces an Astros lineup that has gotten to him for 6 earned runs in 11 innings spanning his last two starts against them. Houston has hit 3 homers in those 2 opportunities versus Price. As for the Red Sox lineup, they've also crushed 3 long balls in their last 2 shots against Cole. The over is 3-0 in Price's last 3 starts against the Astros. As for Houston's Cole, his most recent start stayed under the total but the Astros entered that outing having gone 3-0 to the over in his 3 prior starts. The first totals that popped up on this game were 9 but it has since dropped to 8.5 runs as of game day morning. This is offering even more value considering the potency of these two lineups and the fact that Cole and Price are both likely to give up some long balls in this one. The money line on this game is in a pick'em range and that is certainly noteworthy as there have been 9 games this season where the Red Sox have been at home with a money line in a range of -125 to +125 and only 1 of the 9 (11%!) resulted in an under. 8* OVER the total in Boston |
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09-06-18 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Total (of the Week) Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:05 ET - The Indians only scored 3 runs yesterday but they did have 10 hits in the game but simply didn't hit well in clutch situations and they left 9 men on base in that one though had 10 opportunities at the plate with men in scoring position. I expect the Tribe will fare much better against the Blue Jays Sam Gaviglio Thursday. As for the Toronto lineup, they exploded for 10 runs in yesterday's series finale with the Rays and they now face an inconsistent Shane Bieber. The Cleveland right-hander has a 5.91 ERA in his last 4 starts and gave up 3 homers in his most recent road start. As for the Jays Gaviglio, he is 1-4 with a 5.61 ERA since the All Star break. In this stretch, opponents have hit .304 against him. Also, keep in mind, 5 of Gaviglio's 8 starts since the All Star break came against teams with a losing break and 4 of the 5 were against the last place Orioles and Royals. He is facing a much tougher lineup Thursday and I expect the Indians to get to him early and often. In Thursday games this season Toronto is 9-4 to the over and Cleveland is 8-4 to the over. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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09-05-18 | Reds v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:05 ET - The Pirates Jameson Taillon has been pitching very well so, at first glance, one might be uncomfortable with predicting the Reds to do some damage here at the plate. However, a big key is that Cincinnati is facing him for a fourth time this season. Taillon shut down the Reds when they first saw him but that was back in early April. In the two times Cincinnati has faced him since, Taillon has given up 7 earned runs on 14 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings. Look for the Reds to get to the Pirates right-hander here. The big key to this play however is the fact that the Pittsburgh bats should absolutely crush the Reds Homer Bailey. The Cincinnati right-hander has miraculously allowed just 3 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts even though he continues to be hit hard. In fact, Bailey has now allowed 46 hits in the 24 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 5 starts. Yes, you read that right, the Reds right-hander is allowing an average of nearly 2 hits per inning! Bailey has a 6.93 ERA during this 5-start stretch and facing the Pirates is unlikely to help him. Bailey has given up 9 runs (8 earned) on 17 hits in 9 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts versus Pittsburgh. More of the same expected here and we'll take advantage of a low total posted on this one thanks to Taillon being on the mound for the Pirates. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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09-05-18 | Red Sox v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #977 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox @ 12:10 ET - These are two of the top hitting teams in the majors. In fact, in day games this season the Red Sox are ranked #1 for batting average among AL teams and the Braves are ranked #2 for batting average among NL teams. That said, I like the value with the low total posted on this game. I know yesterday's game stayed under the total but the Red Sox hitters have some good numbers in their appearances against Mike Foltneywicz and the Braves hitters have some solid stats when facing Boston's Hector Velazquez. Neither of these is a huge sample size but it is enough to feel comfortable here considering the potency of both of these lineups. I also like the fact that Velazquez got crushed in his most recent road start and has now allowed 11 earned runs on 16 hits in his 11 innings of work (as a starter) on the road this season. The Braves Foltneywicz was strong against the Red Sox in a start earlier this season but faced them out of the bullpen earlier in his career and they hit him well. I like the powerful Boston lineup to get to him much better now in the "rematch" for this season. With yesterday's win the Red Sox are now 6-2 in their last 8 games and they've scored an average of 8.3 runs per game in those 6 victories! Also, the Braves bats have been held in check in this series but they entered this inter-league match-up having averaged scoring 5 runs per game in the first 6 games of this homestand. They'll bounce back against Velazquez in this afternoon match-up. Look for the over to improve to 13-7 this season in Braves inter-league games. 8* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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09-04-18 | Royals v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET - The Indians Mike Clevinger has been throwing very well. However, he is facing a surprisingly red hot Royals team that has won 8 of its last 9 games and has scored at least 5 runs in all 9 of those games. That said, Kansas City is very likely to at least do some damage at the plate in this game. Couple that with the fact that the Indians should absolutely annihilate KC's Danny Duffy here and you have the right recipe for an easy over. The Royals left-hander is 0-3 with a 10.80 ERA versus the Indians this season. Each of his last two starts against the Indians have flown over the total. As for Clevinger, though he is pitching well of late (including his most recent start versus KC), the right-hander has allowed a total of 18 hits in the 15 innings spanning his two home starts versus the Royals this season. Though yesterday's game stayed under the total, Kansas City entered yesterday's action having had just two unders in their 10 prior games. The Indians have averaged 5.5 runs per game at home this season and they'll bounce back after yesterday's disappointing effort and that should send this game easily flying over the total as, keep in mind, these two teams also have two of the worst bullpens in baseball. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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09-04-18 | Reds v. Pirates OVER 8 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:05 ET - The Pirates got their sticks back on track in the 5-1 win yesterday. They should keep the momentum going Tuesday as they take advantage of facing Cody Reed of the Reds. The Cincinnati left-hander has mostly worked out of the bullpen this season but we was a starter in 2016 and it didn't go well. In fact, overall Reed has gone 1-9 with a 5.95 ERA in his 34 MLB appearances including 13 starts. Look for the Pirates to get to him early and often. As for Pittsburgh starter Joe Musgrove, he got rocked for 6 earned runs in just 4 and 1/3 innings when he faced the Reds earlier this season. The Pirates right-hander also enters this start with an 8.10 ERA in his last two starts. The over is 24-13 in Cincinnati's games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. Going ever further back, the Reds record in those games is 88-53 to the over. The Pirates are 24-15 to the over in games against left-handed starters this season. Look for all these trends to continue Tuesday evening. 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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09-03-18 | Royals v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals @ 4:10 ET - Both these teams were involved with games yesterday that went over the total and I look for another one today as now they are matched up on a very warm early September afternoon in Cleveland. The weather will certainly be favorable for the hitters and there is no denying that the Royals are red hot at the plate right now. With their 9-1 win yesterday, Kansas City has won 7 of their last 8 games and they've averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this hot stretch of play. As for the Indians, they've scored an average of 5.4 run per game in their last 7 games. Not great but also not bad and the fact is they should light up the Royals Jake Junis this afternoon. The Indians have had Junis' number as he has been rocked for 12 earned runs in 11 innings against the Tribe this season. Cleveland counters with Adam Plutko and he has given up 7 earned runs in 9 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Not only are those numbers unimpressive, he has walked 7 in those two short outings which is also a concern. The way the Royals are swinging the bats, Plutko is likely to get roughed up early and often. At the same time, the Indians bats continue their mastery of Junis' offerings and the result is a slugfest this afternoon at Progressive Field. Kansas City is 13-7 to the over in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The Indians are 13-6 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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09-02-18 | Mariners v. A's OVER 9 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Seattle Mariners @ 4:05 ET - Yesterday's game totaled 15 runs and a similar result this afternoon would not be a total shock in the least. The fact is that both teams should again enjoy plenty of success at the plate this afternoon. The Mariners Felix Hernandez is a shell of his former self. The veteran right-hander has particularly struggled on the road this season as Hernandez is 4-6 with a 7.30 ERA away from home this year. The A's Edwin Jackson has seen his starts trend "under" this season but that is helping to give us some line value here because he really is not pitching very well of late. The veteran right-hander has lasted a total of only 14 innings in his last 3 starts. Jackson has as many walks as strikeouts during this rough stretch and the Mariners have scored 20 runs already in the first 3 games of this series. As for the Athletics, they have scored 6 or more runs in 7 of their last 13 games. They've only been held below 4 runs twice in those 13 games and, keep in mind, a 4-4 game guarantees us of no less than a 5-4 final. I see no reason that both teams won't get to at least 4 runs here and, in fact, another 8-7 type game seems likely given this pitching match-up as well as they way these two teams have been swinging the bats of late. 8* OVER the total in Oakland |
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