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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-11-16 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 11 | 12-9 | Win | 106 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #919/920 - Daytime Dominator - 6* OVER 11 in Texas vs Colorado @ 2:05 ET Thursday - Yesterday's game stayed under the total even though both bullpens showed some issues. Lucas Harrell gets the start for the Rangers today and he has some ugly numbers in his 5 career starts against the Rockies. Harrell has been roughed up with a 7.40 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP in his games against Colorado. The over is a PERFECT 5-0 in those starts! In other words, when Harrell has made a start against the Rockies there has NEVER BEEN A LOSS on an over ticket. Considering that the Rockies should again pound Harrell (5.17 ERA in his home starts this season) and that the Rangers are riding the momentum of a 5-game winning streak, I look for a back and forth slugfest here. Chad Bettis gets the start for the Rockies here and he has been hit at a .304 clip in day games this season. Bettis has a 5.40 ERA in day games this year. Look for the over to improve to 9-3 in Colorado's Thursday games this season. 6* OVER 11 in Texas Thursday |
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08-11-16 | Diamondbacks v. Mets OVER 7.5 | 9-0 | Win | 109 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #901/902 - Earliest Cash - 6* OVER 7.5 in New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 12:10 ET Thursday - I am well aware of the fact that the Mets have injuries that have impacted their lineup and that, overall, they have not been hitting the ball well. However, the Mets should have no trouble with the offerings of Braden Shipley. Not only is the young right-hander struggling but he also will be without the catcher who caught two of his better games. In the only start that Welington Castillo did not catch Shipley, the righty got rocked for 6 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work at Milwaukee. The Mets will have Noah Syndergaard on the mound for this one and he has not been himself for quite some time. Over the last two months he has given up 53 hits in 44 and 1/3 innings. Of course these are ugly numbers by his standards and the over was 8-3 in his 11 starts prior to his most recent outing staying under the total - even though Syndergaard did allow 4 earned runs in that start last week. The over is 23-14 in Diamondbacks day games and yesterday's extra inning affair helps us in terms of using up some extra bullpen as the game took 12 innings to decide. 6* OVER 7.5 in New York Mets Thursday |
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08-10-16 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 10 | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #979/980 - Over Easy - 6* OVER 10 in Texas vs Colorado @ 8:05 ET Wednesday - Yesterday's total (for those who played it) was a push for most as it totaled 12 runs in Colorado. Now this series shifts to Texas and even though 10 is a big number, there is no reason this game shouldn't fly over the total. Both of these clubs have hit left-handers quite well and both of these southpaw starters are struggling. Jorge De la Rosa gets the start for the Rockies and though his numbers have been a little better of late he still has a 4.43 ERA in his last 4 starts and a 5.69 ERA on the season. De la Rosa allowed 6 earned runs in 6 innings the last time he faced the Rangers. Texas will have Martin Perez on the mound for this one and the southpaw is winless with a 6.55 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP in his two career starts against Colorado. Perez has a 7.07 ERA in his last 6 starts. With yesterday's 7-5 win the Rangers have notched at least 11 hits in 4 of their last 6 games. The Rockies sticks have managed to total 11 hits in 5 of their last 8 games. Look for the over to improve to 12-6 in Rangers Wednesday games this season. De la Rosa's last start stayed under the total but the over was 10-5 in his 15 prior starts this season and with both teams having high slugging percentages against left-handed pitching this year, look for plenty of power to be on display at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park in Arlington Wednesday evening. 6* OVER in Texas |
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08-10-16 | Phillies v. Dodgers OVER 8 | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #953/954 - Daytime Dominator - 6* OVER 8 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 3:10 ET Wednesday - With yesterday's 9-3 Dodgers win, the over is now 10-3 in the Phillies last 13 games. Although Jeremy Hellickson has been solid on the mound this season for Philadelphia, Dodger Stadium has not been kind to him in his career. Hellickson is winless in his 3 career starts at Dodger Stadium with a 9.00 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP. He'll be opposed by the Dodgers Scott Kazmir this afternoon. The veteran southpaw has struggled in day games this season with a 7.58 ERA and he's been hit at a .276 clip. Also, right-handed hitters have hit .260 against him this season and the Phillies have a number of big right-hand bats that have enjoyed success against southpaws this season. This is not a very good match-up for Kazmir and he's been struggling lately with 4 earned runs allowed in each of his last two starts and he walked 4 while striking out just 2 in his most recent start. Also, he's allowed 10 earned runs in his last 10 and 1/3 innings against Philadelphia. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Hellickson's career starts against the Dodgers. Also, the over is 8-3 in the last 11 starts that Kazmir has made. The over is 17-8 in Phillies road games this season where the posted total is 8 or 8.5 runs. This will be the 30th Dodgers game with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs so far this season and, so far, only 11 of those have stayed under the total. 6* OVER in LA Dodgers |
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08-09-16 | Braves v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #907/908 - Slugfest Smash - 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Milwaukee vs Atlanta @ 8:10 ET Tuesday - Last night's game went 12 innings so some extra bullpen work was required. That is significant here because neither pitcher is likely to go deep in this game. The Braves Tyrell Jenkins has not gone longer than 6 innings in any of his starts since moving into the rotation. Also, he's been stellar at home but has struggled in his road starts with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP in his 3 starts away from home. The Brewers will have Wily Peralta on the mound and he's only getting this start because of the injury to Junior Guerra. The Milwaukee right-hander has a 7.79 ERA in his 7 home starts this season and the over is a PERFECT 7-0 in his home outings this year! Peralta was so ineffective that he was sent to AAA. Even at the AAA level he has struggled too as he was roughed up for a 6.31 ERA in his 10 starts at the minor league level. Even though it did take extra innings to get there, the fact is that the Braves reached double digits in hits yesterday for the 8th time in their last 12 games. The over was 7-4 in Atlanta's last 11 games before yesterday's game fell short. Jenkins gave up 3 homers in his most recent road start and the Brewers offense had been producing well in home games. They bounce back here and turn this one into a slugfest. 10* OVER in Milwaukee |
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08-09-16 | Rangers v. Rockies OVER 12 | 7-5 | Push | 0 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #925/926 - Daytime Dominator - 8* OVER 12 in Colorado vs Texas @ 3:10 ET Tuesday - Riding the momentum of scoring 3 runs in the 9th to steal a win last night, the Rangers bats should have a big game this afternoon. Texas didn't hit well last night but they faced a tough pitcher and the Rangers will get right back on track at the plate here after averaging 13 hits per game in their 3 prior victories. The Rockies Tyler Chatwood will prove to be no match for Texas. He has a 5.72 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his home starts this season and was hit hard in his most recent outing at home. Even though it's been years since he faced Texas, the fact is that seeing Rangers uniforms stepping into the batters box is likely to put pressure on him. Chatwood has an 11.17 ERA in his 3 career starts against Texas. The Rangers will have AJ Griffin on the mound for this one and he has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts. In the thin air of Colorado and the fact this one is an afternoon game, the ball should be jumping off the bats this afternoon. The over is 9-3 in Rockies games with a money line of -100 to -125 this season. Also, the over is 9-5 in the Rangers last 14 games against teams with a losing record. Yesterday's game was a pitchers duel between two solid southpaws but today's match-up is an afternoon game featuring two very hittable right-handers so don't let the big number scare you here. This should be a slugfest type of game. 8* OVER in Colorado |
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08-08-16 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #955/956 - Slugfest Smash - 10* Top Play - OVER 8.5 or 9 in St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:15 ET Monday - This is a rematch of a pitching match-up in Cincinnati on Wednesday. That game got "stuck" at 9 runs after a fast start but this one should easily get over the total as these lineups get a quick "second look" at hurlers they just faced last week. Cody Reed of the Reds and Michael Wacha of the Cardinals combined to allow 14 hits in their 10 innings of work and strikeouts were few and far between. In other words, they certainly weren't fooling a lot of hitters. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Reed's road starts this season and he is 0-6 on the season with a 7.30 ERA .The over is 15-6 in Wacha's starts this year and he has struggled more at home than on the road. In his starts in St Louis, Wacha has compiled a 4.67 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP! The over is 8-2-1 in the Cardinals last 11 games and though the Cards were held to 3 runs yesterday, they previously had scored at least 5 runs in 6 of their last 10 games. St Louis is hosting a Reds team that has averaged 5.3 runs per game in their last 18 games. The over is 24-13 in Cincinnati's divisional games this season and the over is 11-3 in their Monday games. The over is 18-11 in Cardinals games against left-handed starters this season. The Reds bullpen has a 5.01 ERA this season and the Cards pen has an ERA up in the range of 4.00 in home games. 10* OVER in St Louis Monday |
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08-08-16 | Astros v. Twins OVER 9 | 1-3 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #961/962 - Total Dominator - 8* OVER 9 in Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET Monday - As a road favorite of -125 to -150, the Astros have gone 11-4 to the over this season and 21-9 to the over the last three seasons combined. In road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the over is 10-3 this season and 22-10 the last 3 seasons combined. Minnesota comes into this game having gone over the total in 9 straight games! Also, the over is 6-3 this season and 29-13 the last three seasons combined when the Twins are a home dog of +125 to +150. The over is an incredible 44-19 in Minny's night games this season. Tyler Duffey gets the start for the Twins and he has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 12 of his last 14 starts as his season-long struggles have continued. The Astros will have Colin McHugh on the mound for this one and the right-hander was roughed up by Minnesota the last time he faced them (in early May). Also, McHugh's most recent road start saw him give up 8 earned runs on 10 hits in less than 2 innings of work. 8* OVER in Minnesota Monday |
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08-07-16 | Red Sox v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #929/930 - Sunday Night Game of the Month - 10* Top Play OVER 7 or 7.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET Sunday - Saw some early 7's on this game but it quickly jumped to a 7.5 and that is absolutely justified as there should be plenty of offense in this one after yesterday's 3-0 win for the Dodgers. The Red Sox are 2-1 to the over this season after getting shutout but the lone under was a game which totaled 9 runs. In other words, with a low total like we're seeing on this Sunday night match-up, the over would be a perfect 3-0 in Red Sox games off of a shutout loss. They should have no trouble with the offerings of Brandon McCarthy. The right-hander came back strong in his early outings after returning from Tommy John surgery. However, "the fade" has since already begun. McCarthy has a 7.71 ERA in his last two starts with a 2.00 WHIP as walks allowed and giving up big hits have both been problems for the righty. David Price gets the call for the Red Sox and though he is a "big name" pitcher that gets plenty of respect from the odds makers as well as the betting markets, the lefty hasn't been himself of late. Price has given up at least 3 earned runs in 6 of his last 8 starts. During this 8-game stretch the southpaw has allowed 69 hits in 51 innings of work! Price has a 4.41 ERA over his past 8 starts but, as you can see by those hits, he has been fortunate the damage hasn't been worse. As a home dog of up to +125, the Dodgers have gone 3-0 to the over this season. Yesterday's win was the Dodgers 10th shutout win of the season. So far this year, when off of a shutout win, the next game has stayed under just 3 of 9 times. 10* OVER in Los Angeles Dodgers |
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08-07-16 | Orioles v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 10-2 | Win | 107 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #917/918 - Earliest Cash - 8* OVER 9.5 runs in Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 2:10 ET - James Shields gets the start for the White Sox and he is coming off of a rough start. There has not been a lot of "up and down" from Shields in terms of start to start success or failure. In fact, the veteran righty has been about as streaky as you can get! He pitched well early this season until his final start of May. At that point he got rocked in 4 straight starts. Shields followed that up with 6 straight solid starts but then he got rocked at Detroit in his most recent start. In other words, another down cycle is quite likely to be underway! Look for the Orioles to rough him up today. Baltimore will have Dylan Bundy on the mound today. Though he has pitched well at home he did get roughed up in his only road start this season with 4 runs allowed on 5 hits and 4 walks in only 3 and 1/3 innings of work. Look for more of the same here and, before yesterday's game stayed under the total, 5 of the White Sox last 6 games had gone over the total. The over is 14-7 in Orioles road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 18-11 in Baltimore's day games this season. The White Sox have played 28 games this season that had a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and only 9 of those 28 resulted in an under. The big number on today's total is absolutely justified. 8* OVER in Chicago White Sox |
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08-06-16 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 15-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #959/960 - Slugfest Smash - 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Arizona vs Milwaukee @ 8:10 ET Saturday - Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the over was 7-1-1 in the Diamondbacks 9 prior games and, based on Saturday's pitching match-up we should see the hot hitting in Arizona games resume tonight. Before diving into the pitchers, note that the Brewers are 12-4 to the over in Saturday games this season and the Dbacks are 10-3 to the over in home games where their money line is -100 to -125. Milwaukee will have Matt Garza on the mound tonight and the Brewers are 0-6 this season in his road starts as he has a 5.93 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in his starts away from home. He is again matched up with Patrick Corbin (just as he was on July 26th) and that game went over the total and the rematch should as well as these lineups are getting a quick 'second look' at these hurlers. Arizona's Corbin has given up at least 4 earned runs in each of his last seven starts and is winless during this stretch while compiling a 7.08 ERA. Also, Corbin is an incredibly poor 0-7 with a 7.23 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in his home starts this season. There is simply every reason to believe that both of these hurlers will get rocked Saturday evening. The over is 15-6-1 in Corbin's starts this season and this includes 7 in a row! I expect that over streak to reach a perfect 8-0 tonight. 10* OVER in Arizona Saturday. |
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08-06-16 | Cubs v. A's OVER 7.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #977/978 - Daytime Dominator - 8* OVER 7.5 in Oakland A's vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:05 ET Saturday - After a shutout loss at the hands of the White Sox on July 26th, the Cubs have certainly turned things around. With yesterday's big win at Oakland, the Cubs are now 7-2 their last 9 games and have averaged 5.7 runs per game during this hot streak. The A's have been at the other end of the spectrum as they have lost 6 of their last 7 games. The Athletics have allowed an averaged of 6.4 runs per game during this stretch and having Sonny Gray on the mound is unlikely to help matters for Oakland this afternoon. Gray went 2-4 with a 7.79 ERA in the month of July and his struggles at home go much further back than just last month. Gray has given up 34 earned runs in his last 7 home starts dating back to early May. The Athletics right-hander has compiled a 7.78 ERA during this rough three month stretch! The over is 12-5-1 in Gray's last 18 starts. Jake Arrieta of the Cubs is certainly an "ace" but he has been much stronger at home than on the road this season. While Arrieta has not allowed a single homer at Wrigley Field he has given up 8 in his 11 road starts. The wind will be blowing out in this afternoon match-up in Oakland and the ball will carry a little better too since it's a day game. Amazingly, Arrieta has given up at least 4 earned runs in 5 of his last 6 road starts. I expect more of the same here. The over is 13-5 this season in Cubs road games where they are a favorite of -175 or greater. In the A's 46 games against teams with a winning record this season, they have had just 17 unders. 8* OVER in Oakland Saturday. |
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08-06-16 | Indians v. Yankees OVER 8 | 5-2 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #963/964 - Earliest Cash - 7* OVER 8 in New York Yankees vs Cleveland Indians @ 1:05 ET Saturday - With yesterday's 13-7 game, the wild results continue for the Indians as they have now allowed 10 runs or more in 4 of their last 5 games! The Tribe are now on a 5-0 run to the over and those games have averaged a total of 16.4 runs per game! The Yankees are on a 6-1 run to the over and their starter, C.C. Sabathia, is unlikely to enjoy success Saturday. The veteran southpaw is a former Indian and the lefty has compiled a 5.65 ERA with more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts against Cleveland. Sabathia comes into this start struggling badly as he has given up 4 earned runs or more in 7 of his last 8 starts! Not surprisingly, only 2 of Sabathia's last 8 starts have stayed under the total. Though the Indians Corey Kluber has impressive overall stats he has had some struggles away from home and that is evidenced by his 5.34 ERA in his last 5 road outings. The over is 5-1 in Kluber's last 6 starts. The over is 26-17 in Indians games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The over is on a long-term 21-8 run in Yankees games where they are a home dog in a range of +125 to +150. 7* OVER in NY Yankees Saturday. |
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08-05-16 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #919/920 - AL West Total of the Year - 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in Houston vs Texas @ 8:10 ET Friday - This is a battle of southpaws here with Dallas Keuchel facing Martin Perez and both lineups will be helped by the fact that they just faced a left-handed starting pitcher yesterday as well. The big keys to this play are the fact that Perez has been struggling badly and Keuchel has struggled all season against the Rangers. Versus Texas this season, Keuchel has gone 0-3 with 17 earned runs allowed on 32 hits in only 19 and 1/3 innings spanning three starts. As for the Rangers Perez, he is off of a rare, strong start. Prior to holding Kansas City to just one earned run in seven innings, Perez had given up 29 runs (22 earned) on 34 hits in 21 and 2/3 innings spanning his four prior starts. As you can see, there is plenty of reason to believe that both starting pitchers will struggle this evening in this divisional battle. Neither lineup has been hitting the ball particularly well of late but the odds makers knew what they were doing when they hung an 8.5 on this game even though it involves a "big name pitcher" like Keuchel. By the way, the Rangers are hitting .286 against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them 1st out of all 30 teams. The over is 3-1 in the last 4 starts Perez has made against AL opponents. Also, heading into yesterday's game with Toronto and southpaw J.A. Happ, the over was 4-1 in Astros games against left-handed starters since the All Star Break. Though yesterday's game stayed under, they will enjoy plenty of success facing the struggling Perez tonight. 10* OVER in Houston Friday |
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08-04-16 | Giants v. Phillies UNDER 8 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #953/954 - Total Crusher - 7* UNDER 8 in Philadelphia vs San Francisco @ 1:05 ET Thursday - In the months of June and July, Vincent Velasquez has a combined 2.88 ERA and 4 of his last 6 starts have stayed under the total. The Giants have not faced him before so that is a big edge for the fire-balling right-hander. The Phillies will also struggle at the plate today as Matt Moore is a tough lefty. The southpaw was recently acquired by San Francisco from Tampa Bay and Moore has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 7 of his last 9 starts! 8 of those 9 outings were quality starts and the Phillies (the recent game against Madison Bumgarner - strange!) notwithstanding, generally struggle against left-handed pitchers. The under is 13-9 this season in Phils games against left-handed starters. As a home dog of +100 to +125 this season, the Phillies have gone 9-4 to the under. The first two games of this series did go over the total but previously SF was on a 13-4 run to the under. As for the Phillies, before this series with the G-men, the under was 15-7-1 in the Phils last 23 games. 7* UNDER in Philadelphia |
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08-04-16 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -114 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #951/952 - Top Total - 10* OVER 9 in Cincinnati vs St Louis @ 12:35 ET - Yesterday I used this play as my free pick and the game was 4-2 after just ONE inning! Inexplicably, the game did not go over the total. It ended up being a push at 9 runs. I expect to get some payback today as both of these starting pitchers are likely to get roughed up. Mike Leake gets the start for the Cardinals and he has allowed 6 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Coincidentally, Leake also gave up 6 earned runs the last time he faced the Reds which was in Cincinnati less than 2 months ago. Cincy will have Brandon Finnegan on the mound and the southpaw is off of a strong start at San Diego. However, prior to the solid effort versus the Padres, Finnegan had given up 21 earned runs on 24 hits and 12 walks in just 17 and 1/3 innings spanning his 4 prior starts. Each of those 4 starts went over the total and each of Leake's last 3 starts went over the total as well. The over is 7-3 in Finnegan's home starts this season and 7-4 in Leake's road starts this season. The Cards lineup has the edge of facing a southpaw starter for the 2nd straight game and the over is 18-10 in their games against left-handers this season. The over is also 31-18 in Cardinals road games this season. As for the Reds, the over is 9-1 in their Thursday games this season and 23-10 in their divisional games. 10* OVER in Cincinnati Thursday |
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08-03-16 | Twins v. Indians OVER 9 | 13-5 | Win | 102 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #917/918 - Over Easy - 8* OVER 9 in Cleveland vs Minnesota @ 7:10 ET Wednesday - With yesterday's game easily soaring over the total just like game one of this series did, there is no denying that the lineups are both hot in this match-up. The Twins are averaging 6.6 runs per game in their last 10 games. The Indians are averaging 6 runs per game in their last 5 games. Based on the pitching match-up for Wednesday, the hot hitting should continue. Tyler Duffey gets the start for Minnesota and he is winless in his 3 starts since the All Star break and has compiled a 13.51 ERA and a 2.80 WHIP during this stretch. Duffey will be opposed by Trevor Bauer of the Indians and the right-hander is also winless since the All Star break with a 5.87 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in his 3 starts since then. Only 4 of Duffey's 17 starts have stayed under the total this season. The over is in an incredible 41-19 in Minnesota's night games this season. The over is a stellar 30-16 in Indians home games this year. In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs for the Tribe, the over has gone 10-5 the past three seasons. The Twins are hitting the ball very well but their bullpen ERA on the road is among the worst in the league. This shapes up to be another wild one Wednesday as Duffey is averaging only 4 and 2/3 innings per start in his last 11 starts so the Twins bullpen could likely be exposed again here. 8* OVER in Cleveland Wednesday. |
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08-02-16 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 3-7 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #959/960 - Total Dominator - 8* OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 ET Tuesday - Both Brandon McCarthy of the Dodgers and Jon Gray of the Rockies have put up some impressive numbers this season. However, McCarthy gave up 6 earned runs in 6 innings in his last visit to hitter-friendly Coors Field. Also, Gray gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings the last time he faced the Dodgers in Colorado. This play tonight is all about the thin air of Colorado and, though the wind is a little tricky to call as to the exact timing of the wind shifts, it does look like the wind will be favorable for the hitters for much of the duration of this game. The Dodgers are averaging 6 runs per game since the All Star break and have scored at least 6 runs in 4 of their last 6 road games. They are coming off of a home series against the Diamondbacks where the Dodgers averaged 8.3 runs per game. The Rockies have won 9 of their last 11 games and are averaging 6.2 runs per game at home this season. These pitchers just matched up in early July but that was at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. The rematch will feature plenty of fireworks on offense as these lineups are very familiar with these starting pitchers and the conditions should be ideal tonight for plenty of power hitting at Coors Field. The over is 10-3 in the Dodgers last 13 games. 8* OVER in Colorado Tuesday |
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08-02-16 | Giants v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 8-13 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #951/952 - Earliest Cash - 8* UNDER 7.5 in Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants @ 7:05 ET Tuesday - Madison Bumgarner is seeking revenge for a 3-2 loss to the Phillies in late June. That game easily stayed under the total and I expect more of the same Tuesday. Each of Bumgarner's last 4 starts have stayed under the total and, overall, it has been a run of 11-3 to the under in his last 14 starts. The Giants southpaw has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 15 of his last 19 starts. He'll be opposed by the Phillies Zach Eflin Tuesday. Eflin is off of a rare rough outing. Prior to a poor start at Miami, the Phils right-hander had compiled a stellar 2.08 ERA in his last 7 starts. At home this season Eflin has a 2.61 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP and all 3 starts have stayed under the total. The under is 11-3 in Phillies Tuesday games this season and Philadelphia is 13-8 to the under in their games against left-handed starters this season. The under is 15-7-1 in the Phils last 23 games overall. As for the Giants, they also have been trending under as well. San Francisco is 13-4 to the under in their last 17 games overall. Both these clubs were off yesterday and the Giants are 7-3 to the under this season when playing after a day off. Also, the Giants are off of a win Sunday and the under is 38-22 this season in SF games when they are off of a victory. 8* UNDER 7.5 in Philadelphia |
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08-01-16 | Royals v. Rays OVER 7 | 3-0 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #907/908 - Over Easy - 8* OVER 7 in Tampa Bay vs Kansas City @ 7:10 ET - After opening up at a 7.5 this total dropped down to a 7 and this is offering solid line value for the over. The Rays will have Chris Archer on the mound for this one and he has given up 14 runs (13 earned) on 20 hits in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts against the Royals. Kansas City will have Danny Duffy on the mound for this one and the southpaw has given up 5 earned runs on 14 hits in only 11 innings of work in his last two starts against Tampa Bay. The left-hander has seen each of his last 3 road starts go over the total and only 2 of those 3 outings were quality outings for Duffy. The over is 3-1 in the Rays Archer's 4 career starts against the Royals. Though Archer pitched well in his two most recent starts, those were against a pair of National League teams so there was some unfamiliarity for the hitters there which of course is a big edge for the hurler. In 4 of his last 5 starts against American League teams, Archer has allowed at least 4 earned runs. The Royals have played 10 games with a posted total of 7 or less this season and only 3 of those stayed under the total. The Rays have played 11 Monday games so far this season and only 2 of the 11 resulted in an under! The pitching match-up is conducive to some big runs in this one and yet we have a low total to work with. *8* OVER 7 in Tampa Bay |
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07-31-16 | Mariners v. Cubs OVER 8 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #979/980 - Sunday Night Game of the Month - *10* Top Play OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners @ 8:05 ET Sunday - Felix Hernandez certainly is still worthy of his "ace status" based on his career numbers but certainly his current form is not that of an ace. Hernandez has a 7.23 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP in his last 3 starts and that includes a pair of very un-Felix like outings in his two starts since the All Star break. The over is 3-0 in the last three starts Hernandez has made and he'll be opposed tonight by a Cubs hurler who is unlikely to enjoy success. Brian Matusz most recent outing in the bigs was out of the bullpen on May 17th as a member of the Orioles and it just so happens that he faced the Mariners in that game. Seattle got to him for 4 earned runs in less than 2 innings of work and he had a rough 2016 at the MLB level in his limited action out of the pen. Matusz gave up 3 homers in 6 innings. The Cubs left-hander has struggled against right-handed batters throughout his career and he will face a ton of dangerous right-handed lumber in this match-up with Seattle. Even with yesterday's under the over is 11-5 in Mariners interleague games this season. The last three starts that the Cubs Matusz has made at the MLB level saw him allow 12 earned runs on 27 hits in less than 14 innings of work. He is likely to get pounded again tonight as the Mariners build off of yesterday's win. The M's have won 6 of their last 10 games and averaged 6 runs per game in those 6 victories. The Cubs, before being held to just 1 run yesterday, had averaged 5 runs per game during the 6-3 stretch that preceded the defeat. *10* OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs Sunday |
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07-31-16 | Reds v. Padres OVER 9 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #963/964 - Daytime Dominator - *8* OVER 8.5 or 9 in San Diego vs Cincinnati @ 4:40 ET Sunday - This total opened at a 9 which, of course, is an unusually high number for a game at Petco Park. Not surprisingly there has already been some downward movement early this morning as this total has dropped to an 8.5 in many books. The fact is that the 9 was absolutely justified here. First off, though Petco Park is known as a pitchers park, the ball does carry better in day games than it does at night. Secondly, the pitching match-up here has "over" written all "over" it. The Padres will start Paul Clemens and he has already allowed 7 homers in just 15 innings at the MLB level! He also has 8 walks in his 10 innings of work in his 2 home starts. He's unlikely to enjoy success against a Reds lineup filled with power hitters. As for the Reds, they'll have Homer Bailey back in the mix. It will be his first start since very early last season in April. He's been rehabbing since Tommy John surgery and, based on his AAA stats, he's certainly still a "work in progress" as he has had just 1 win in his 7 starts at the AAA level in the minors this season. he gave up 7 homers in those 7 outings and, overall, was hit at a .304 clip! Last night's game was a tight 2-1 battle but today's should play out in much different fashion. The Reds faced a southpaw last night but the over is 45-27 in Reds games against right-handed starters this season. *8* OVER in San Diego Sunday. |
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07-31-16 | Royals v. Rangers OVER 10 | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #975/976 - Over Easy - *7* OVER 10 in Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals @ 3:05 ET Sunday - The Rangers acquired Lucas Harrell from the Braves recently and now he makes his debut in hitter-friendly Texas and faces a tough American League lineup. Keep in mind that Harrell's last two seasons with an AL club (Houston) he went 6-20 with a 6.13 ERA in 2013 and 2014 combined! The Royals have to have concerns about their starting pitcher today too. Kansas City will have Dillon Gee on the mound and the right-hander was hit at a .329 clip with the Mets last season and things have not really improved. This season with the Royals, Gee has been hit at a .307 clip and he's been quite fortunate that his ERA (4.54) is not higher. He is winless with a 5.82 ERA in his day games this year where teams have hit .347 against him. This is no fluke as last season he went winless with a 9.35 ERA in his two daytime starts and teams hit .395 against him. The over is 4-0 in Gee's last four starts and the over went a perfect 2-0 in Harrell's home starts with the Braves this season. Also, the over is 9-3 in the Rangers last 12 games against teams with a losing record. *7* OVER in Texas Sunday. |
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07-31-16 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 7 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #967/968 - Earliest Cash - *6* UNDER 7 in Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees @ 1:10 ET Sunday - I got burned with the under in yesterday's game (was 3-2 Rays entering the bottom of the 7th) but I won't hesitate to come right back with it here. Yesterday's game was ridiculous in that there were only 12 hits in the game but 5 were homers and some late round-trippers (bottom of 7th for Rays and top of 9th for Yanks) is what did me in. The key today is that the Yankees face another tough lefty, Blake Snell, and they have struggled against left-handed pitchers all season. Snell has produced three straight quality starts and comes into this game with a 1.93 ERA in his last three outings. He'll be opposed by the Yankees Michael Pineda who has allowed just 1 earned run on 10 hits while striking out 16 in the 13 innings spanning his last two starts. The under is 6-0 in Pineda's last 6 starts and 4-0 in Snell's last 4 starts for a combined 10-0 mark I'll gladly test here. Even with yesterday's fluke result the over is only 17-33 in Rays home games this season. Also, the under is 6-1 this season in Yankees road games with a posted total of 7 runs or less. *6* UNDER in Tampa Bay Sunday. |
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07-30-16 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 6-5 | Win | 105 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #919/920 - Over Easy - 6* OVER 9.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - Some extra bullpen work was involved in last night's game as it went 12 innings in a surprisingly low-scoring 2-1 Twins win yesterday. Extra bullpen work never hurts when you're looking at an "over" for the next day and that is the case here. With Miguel Gonzalez on the mound for the White Sox and matched up with Tom Milone of the Twins this one has the makings of a high-scoring battle. Gonzalez has one good career start against Minnesota but in the other two starts he gave up 10 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work! The Twins Milone got rocked at Boston in his most recent start. The southpaw has seen 7 of his 10 starts go over the total this season and I look for another one here. Milone has given up 9 earned runs on 17 hits in the 7 innings spanning his last two starts against the White Sox. He was unable to make it out of the 4th frame in either start. Even with yesterday's under, the over is 38-19 (67%) in Twins night games this season. Also, the over is 23-13 in Minny's games against teams with a losing record this season and 10-5 in their Saturday games so far this year. The White Sox are 5-2 to the over in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season and the ChiSox are 10-6 to the over in Saturday games this year. 6* OVER 9.5 in Minnesota |
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07-30-16 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8 | 3-6 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #917/918 - Total Dominator - 6* UNDER 8 in Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees @ 6:10 ET - With yesterday's under the Yankees are now 13-1 to the under in their last 14 games. Facing southpaw Drew Smyly is unlikely to help matters for the Yanks as they have struggled against left-handed pitching all season. The Yankees .381 slugging percentage against southpaws ranks them DEAD LAST in the American League so far this season. Smyly is 2-0 in his 4 career starts against the Yanks and he has compiled a 2.08 ERA and a stellar 0.81 WHIP in those 4 outings. Smyly is off of a quality start at Oakland where he allowed just 1 earned run in 6 innings of work. The Rays are on a 17-4-1 run to the under and, even with yesterday's 5-1 win, Tampa has averaged just 2.5 runs per game in their last 6 games. They'll face the Yanks Nathan Eovaldi this evening and the right-hander has a 2.25 ERA in his two starts since the All Star break. Also, Eovaldi held the Rays to just one earned run in 6 innings in his lone start against them this season. The under is 33-16 in Tampa Bay's home games this season and I expect the under to improve to a perfect 4-0 in Eovaldi's 4th career start against the Rays. The under is 25-8 in Yankees divisional games this season and 8-2 in their games on artificial turf. 6* UNDER in Tampa Bay |
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07-30-16 | Nationals v. Giants OVER 8 | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Game #901/902 - Daytime Dominator - 6* OVER 8 in San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals @ 4:05 ET - Reynaldo Lopez gets the start for the Nationals in what will be just the 2nd MLB start of his young career. Though he struck out 9 in his first career start, Lopez was also rocked for 6 runs on 10 hits in less than 5 innings of work. He'll be opposed by Jake Peavy of the Giants whom is having trouble with the long ball. Peavy has given up 5 homers in his last two starts and took the loss in each as he's allowed 10 earned runs in the 11 innings of work spanning his pair of starts since the All Star break. The last time he faced the Nats Peavy was rocked for 9 hits and 3 walks which led to 5 earned runs given up in less than 6 innings of work. Washington is 9-5 to the over in Saturday games this season and 20-13 to the over in day games this year. The Giants have played 161 day games the past three seasons combined and only 66 have stayed under the total. The ball does carry better in day games (in comparison with night games) at AT & T Park and the wind will be blowing out this afternoon in SF. 6* OVER in San Francisco |
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07-30-16 | Mariners v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #929/930 - IL Smash - 6* OVER 7.5 in Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners @ 2:20 ET - Tremendous line value here with the low total. The fact that the wind is expected to be blowing in at Wrigley Field is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. Another reason for the low total is because Jake Arrieta is on the mound. The Cubs right-hander commands respect but he truly has not been the pitcher he was earlier this season. Note that Arrieta is off of a start where he allowed 4 earned runs versus the White Sox. He has now given up 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his last 5 starts. Arrieta will be opposed by the Mariners Wade Miley. The Seattle southpaw has struggled throughout this season as evidenced by his 5.23 ERA and he certainly hasn't shown any signs of turning things around. The Mariners are certainly in a "turn around" spot here after getting clobbered 12-1 yesterday. However, Seattle is actually 17-6 to the over the past three seasons when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. The over is 11-4 in Mariners interleague games this season. The Cubs are 28-18 to the over in their day games this season. 6* OVER in Chicago Cubs Saturday afternoon. |
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07-29-16 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #975/976 - Slugfest Smash - 6* OVER 8.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET Â Friday - Yesterday Minnesota hosted the Orioles and I was involved in that game and suffered a tough loss with the over. The teams combined for 23 hits (no game yesterday had more) and yet it fell short of going over. I expect to get some payback here today as the Twins offense (6 runs or more in 4 of their last 5 games) stays hot while they also see their starting pitcher struggle today. Minny will have Ricky Nolasco on the mound tonight and he is winless in his 9 home starts this season and has compiled a 5.66 ERA in those outings. Since the All Star break Nolasco has walked 6 and struck out just 2 in his two starts. His most recent start was an ugly one at Boston as he gave up 6 earned runs in just 2 innings of work. This season, against the White Sox, Nolasco has given up 14 runs (12 earned) on 18 hits (including 4 homers) in less than 11 innings of work. The ChiSox will have Jose Quintana on the mound and the southpaw allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent start against the Twins. The White Sox lefty gave up a pair of homers in that late June outing versus Minnesota. The over is 19-8 in Twins home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The over is 38-18 in Minnesota night games this year. When off of a win, Minny is 25-11 to the over this season. I expect the over to improve to 15-4 in Nolasco's starts this season. 6* OVER in Minnesota |
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07-29-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #965/966 - Over Easy - 6* OVER 9 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET Friday - Yesterday the Orioles visiting Minnesota and I was involved in that game and suffered a tough loss with the over. The teams combined for 23 hits (no game yesterday had more) and yet it fell short of going over. I expect to get some payback here today as the O's now visit Toronto. As mentioned in yesterday's write-up, I am well aware of Baltimore's lengthy streak of unders. However, don't you think the odds makers are as well? This game opened up at 9.5 and yet quickly dropped to a 9. The 9.5 opener was absolutely justified. 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams have gone over the total and the last 4 winning overs have not even been close as all 4 totaled at least 15 runs. The fact is that there is a lot of firepower in both of these lineups. That spells trouble for these hurlers as the Orioles Kevin Gausman is winless in his ten road starts this season with a 4.94 ERA. As for the Blue Jays Marco Estrada, his linescore in his first start after the All Star break didn't look all that bad but he was quite fortunate. He had to work out of numerous jams and he struggled with leaving the ball up in the zone. Groundouts and strikeouts were minimal and the Orioles powerful lineup will do some damage to those mistake pitches tonight. The over is 11-5 in Baltimore's road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The Blue Jays are #3 in the majors for runs scored against right-handed pitching. 6* OVER in Toronto |
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07-28-16 | Royals v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #911/912 - Slugfest Smash - *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Texas vs Kansas City @ 8:05 ET - The Royals finally got their offense back on track even though it took a strange play on a bunt to "open things up" for Kansas City last night. Still it was a much needed 7-5 win for KC who will now look to build on that in this road trip to Texas. The trouble for the Royals is that their pitching staff has given up 6.5 runs per game in their last 8 games and they will have Yordano Ventura on the mound this evening. He is 2-5 with a 5.26 ERA in his road starts this season. Also, he just faced the Rangers in Kansas City on Saturday and that means the Texas sticks are getting a quick "second look" at him. The same holds true for Cole Hamels as the Rangers southpaw just faced the Royals in that Saturday match-up in Kansas City so the KC lineup is getting a quick second look at him. Hamels has a 6.55 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP in his two career starts against the Royals. Also, the left-hander did give up 5 earned runs in each of his first two starts of the month and one of those was a situation like this where a team (in that case the Twins) was seeing him in consecutive starts. The over is 10-3-1 in Hamels last 14 starts. Also, Ventura has a 6.33 ERA in his last 5 starts and he has averaged less than six innings per outing in those starts. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in Royals road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The over is also 20-10 in Rangers home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season and the Texas bullpen has a 5.58 ERA at home this year. 8 of the Rangers last 9 games against teams with a losing record on the season have gone over the total. More of the same here. *10* Top Play OVER in Texas |
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07-28-16 | Orioles v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #917/918 - Contrarian Total of the Month - *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Minnesota vs Baltimore @ 7:10 ET - The Orioles Ubaldo Jimenez has not pitched since prior to the All Star Break. His first daughter was born Saturday. Needless to say there are multiple reasons to believe this start is unlikely to go well for Jimenez and that certainly includes the fact that he is unlikely to be sharp. The Orioles right-hander has had a rough season as he has gone 5-9 with a 7.03 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP. Of course giving up an average of 2 baserunners per inning can certainly result in a lot of trouble and that is what Jimenez has experienced throughout this season. He now faces a Twins team that has scored 7 runs or more in 3 of their last 4 games and has allowed 8 runs or more in 4 of their last 6 games. The "contrarian" aspect to this play is the fact that Baltimore has recorded 15 straight unders. How could I possibly fade that, especially with a "big" play? There a couple of key factors here. Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Twins and he is off of a fantastic outing but previously allowed 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his 8 prior starts. In his start just before the break and just after the break Gibson gave up a total of 8 earned runs on 17 hits in 11 innings of work. Gibson also gave up 4 earned runs on 7 hits and 5 walks in 5 innings of work in his only start against the Orioles this season. Even though the O's have the long "under streak" noted above, note that Jimenez has not only seen each of his last 3 starts go over the total, the over is an amazing 10-1 in his last 11 starts including 5-0 in his last 5 road starts. The over is also 11-4 in Orioles road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season and the over is 38-17 this season in Twins night games. *10* Top Play OVER in Minnesota Thursday |
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07-28-16 | Rockies v. Mets OVER 7 | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #901/902 - Earliest Cash - *8* OVER 7 in New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies @ 1:10 ET - Jacob deGrom gets the start for the Mets and he was rocked for 5 runs on 10 hits in less than 4 innings of work in his start on Saturday. He claimed that he simply tired early and that is what resulted in the speed of his fastball being down. The concern for deGrom here would be that is a hot and humid afternoon start for him and it is on regular rest. In other words, he is quite likely to tire early again in this one and that spells trouble against a Colorado team that has won 6 of its past 7 games and averaged 6 runs per game in the victories. The Rockies will have Tyler Anderson on the mound and, though the southpaw has won three straight starts, he has had some good fortune of late. Anderson has given up 22 hits in his last 18 and 1/3 innings of work. Keep in mind this was against two of the weakest offenses in the NL (Phillies and Braves) and one of the weakest in the AL (Rays). That said, I have little doubt that the Mets will hit him well at home here on a muggy afternoon with the wind blowing out at Citi Field. In Mets home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less this season only 11 of 29 have stayed under the total. The over is 8-1 (89%) in Rockies Thursday games this season. *8* OVER in New York Mets |
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07-27-16 | Rockies v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #975/976 - Slugfest Smash - *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Baltimore vs Colorado @ 7:05 ET - Yesterday I played the over in the Yankees game and saw their streak of unders snap. Today I expect to do the same with the Orioles. With yesterday's 6-3 O's loss to the Rockies staying just under the total, Baltimore has now stayed under the total in 14 straight games! However, today they have Dylan Bundy getting the start and he is off of a successful start against the Indians but allowed 3 homers in less than 4 innings of work in his prior start and that was against light-hitting Tampa Bay. He'll be facing a tough test today as Bundy faces a confident Rockies lineup as Colorado has won 5 of their last 6 games and averaged 6 runs per game in doing so. The Rockies will have Jon Gray on the mound and certainly he has put up some impressive numbers of late. However, Gray faced the Braves twice and the Phillies once in his last 3 starts. Prior to facing these weak-hitting teams, Gray had gone through a three-start stretch where he had compiled a 5.82 ERA. The Orioles, though they hadn't been knocking the cover off the ball, did have a 5-game winning streak prior to yesterday's loss. That said, they step to the plate with plenty of confidence today and Gray gets a reminder of what is like to face a tough lineup (i.e. NOT the Braves or Phillies). The over is 22-12 in Orioles games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The over is 5-1 in Colorado's games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. *10* OVER in Baltimore |
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07-27-16 | Reds v. Giants OVER 7 | 2-1 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #953/954 - Daytime Dominator - *8* OVER 7 in San Francisco vs Cincinnati @ 3:45 ET - Each of the first two games in this series have flown over the total and the over is now 13-4 in the meetings between these clubs the last 3 seasons combined. Even though Daniel Straily has been pitching well he was shaky in his lone start against the Giants earlier this season and did allow 2 homers in that outing. As for San Francisco's Madison Bumgarner, the southpaw certainly is one of the top pitchers in the game. But the lefty has allowed 17 hits in his last 13 innings against the Reds. Also, Bumgarner did allow 2 homers in his most recent start against Cincy. The Giants ace left-hander comes into this start having allowed 6 earned runs in his 13 innings since the All Star Break. It may seem "tough" to take an over involving Bumgarner but the Reds have averaged 7.5 runs per game in their last 8 games and will have confidence in the batters box this afternoon even though they are facing a tough lefty. With Straily having allowed 21 earned runs in the 29 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 5 road starts, look for a "surprisingly" easy over this afternoon by the bay. The over is 29-16 in Reds road games this season including a perfect 5-0 when they are a road dog of +200 to +225. *8* OVER 7 in San Francisco |
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07-26-16 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 6-3 | Win | 103 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #913/914 - Over Easy - *8* OVER 8.5 in Houston vs New York Yankees @ 8:10 ET Tuesday - I am well aware of the fact that the Yankees have stayed under the total in 11 straight games. The key here is that C.C. Sabathia is in a funk and he gets the start for the Yanks while I also am not "sold" on the fact of Doug Fister of the Astros being out of his slump either. As for Sabathia he has given up 29 earned runs in the 35 innings spanning his last 6 starts. The veteran left-hander has allowed at least 4 earned runs in each start. Even though the Astros have poor full season numbers against left-handed pitching this season, they have totaled 32 hits in their three games against southpaw starters since the All Star break. Sabathia's last visit to Houston (2014) saw him allow 6 earned runs in 6 innings and I expect another rough outing for him here. Fister has given up 20 hits in his last 17 and 2/3 innings against the Yankees. He is coming off of a strong start in his most recent outing but he had a mediocre 5.18 ERA over his 4 prior starts. Fister is facing a Yankees team that has won 7 of its past 9 so they step into the batters box with plenty of confidence here. The Yanks bullpen has been weakened with the departure of ace closer Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs and, overall, the Yankees bullpen has struggled on the road this season with a 4.76 ERA. The Astros had won 4 straight and averaged 7 runs per game before yesterday's disappointing effort at the plate. That said, I expect the Astros offense to respond here and the Yankees will get their fair share as well. In 8 home starts this season Fister has had only 2 unders. *8* OVER 8.5 in Houston |
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07-26-16 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 102 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #905/906 - Slugfest Smash - *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Milwaukee vs Arizona @ 8:10 ET Tuesday - I had a tough loss in this match-up yesterday and I won't hesitate to come right back with it here. Yesterday's over was also a 9.5 and the game had 9 runs through 6 innings but stalled there. The game had 21 hits and it was truly a fluke (it happens!) that it did not go over the total. Look for today's match-up to make up for it. Neither team has a particularly strong bullpen so that is what made yesterday's end result even more surprising. As for the starting pitchers today, Patrick Corbin gets the start for Arizona and he is 0-3 with an 8.79 ERA and a 2.16 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The southpaw is on the fade and 3 of the Brewers 4 games against left-handed starters since the All Star break have gone over the total. Milwaukee will have Matt Garza on the mound Tuesday and he, like Corbin, is also 0-3 in his last 3 starts. Garza has compiled a 9.21 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP in his last 3 outings. The over is 5-0 in Corbin's last 5 starts and 13-4-1 in his last 18 starts overall! The over is 27-16 in Arizona's games against teams with a losing record this season. *10* OVER 9.5 in Milwaukee |
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07-26-16 | Mariners v. Pirates UNDER 8 | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #917/918 - Total Dominator - *8* UNDER 8 in Pittsburgh vs Seattle @ 7:05 ET Tuesday - This one has the makings of an absolute pitchers' duel as Felix Hernandez squares off with Francisco Liriano in Pittsburgh. The Mariners right-hander had a tough outing in his first start after coming off of the disabled list and you know what that means for this fierce competitor. Hernandez will bring his "A game" tonight. As for Pirates southpaw Liriano, as I have mentioned in previous write-ups, the veteran lefty is a big game competitor. He'll be full of emotion for this chance to out-duel Hernandez. Liriano struck out 13 in 6 innings in his most recent start. Also, the Mariners haven't faced him since 2011 so this is a big edge for him as many of the Seattle hitters will have little to no experience against him. Liriano is 6-2 with a 2.61 ERA in his career against the Mariners. As for Hernandez, he has not faced the Pirates since 2013 so this is a big edge for him. The M's ace righty has gone 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA in his 3 career starts against Pittsburgh and the under cashed in all 3 times. The under is 7-3 in Liriano's 10 career starts against the Mariners. This season the under is 4-1 in the 5 road starts Hernandez has made. The under is 19-13 in Seattle's games against left-handed starters this season and also 25-17 in their games against teams with a winning record. Both bullpens also are fresh as each team was off yesterday. *8* UNDER in Pittsburgh |
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07-25-16 | Angels v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #965/966 - Slugfest Smash - *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Kansas City vs Los Angeles Angels @ 8:15 ET Monday - The Royals are hitting .281 this season against left-handed pitching. That is good enough for the #3 spot out of all 30 MLB teams. They're catching the Angels Hector Santiago at the right time to enjoy some success at the plate. The southpaw allowed 3 runs in just 5 innings in his most recent start and he also issued 3 free passes in that short outing. However, the Royals hurler is the big story here. Ian Kennedy continues to struggle with the long-ball and the wind will be blowing out at Kauffman Stadium this evening in Kansas City. Kennedy gave up 4 homers in his most recent start and no pitcher has given up more than the 26 he has allowed so far this season. The over is 3-1 in Kennedy's last 4 home starts. The Angels enter this game off of 3 straight losses. They are 9-4 to the over this season and 25-12 to the over the last 3 seasons when they enter a game off of 3 or more consecutive losses. The Angels are hitting .272 on the road this season and that ranks them 3rd in the majors. LA resumes the hot hitting they had been enjoying before the 3-game losing streak while KC continues to hit lefties well. That spells an easy over here. *10* OVER in Kansas City |
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07-25-16 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers OVER 9.5 | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #955/956 - Total Dominator - *8* OVER 9.5 in Milwaukee vs Arizona @ 7:20 ET Monday - Two pitchers who simply can't be trusted are matched up in this game and that's why this one has "over" written all "over" it! Braden Shipley gets the start for the Diamondback and he'll be making his MLB debut. Even in the minors he has been hit at a .281 clip this season. Look for Shipley to struggle even more with major league hitters! The Brewers have a "concern" on the mound as well as Chase Anderson gets the ball today. The right-hander has a 2.11 WHIP in July and has not been able to complete more than 4 and 1/3 innings in any of his starts. Anderson has 12 walks against just 9 strikeouts in his 3 July outings. The Brewers game totaled 11 runs yesterday and the Diamondbacks games totaled 17 runs Sunday. I expect another big offensive showing as these clubs now match up on Monday. The over is 27-15 in Arizona's games against teams with a losing record this season. Also, over the past three seasons, the over is 29-14 in their games on Mondays. I look for the over to improve to 13-5 in Anderson's starts this season. *8* OVER 9.5 in Milwaukee |
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07-25-16 | Rockies v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #967/968 - Earliest Cash - *8* OVER 9.5 in Baltimore vs Colorado @ 7:05 ET Monday - The over is 9-4 in the Rockies Jorge De La Rosa's 13 starts this season. The southpaw got rocked for 9 runs (7 earned) in just 4 innings in his most recent start. De La Rosa has given up 19 hits in his 10 innings of work since the All Star Break. He has a 6.68 ERA on the season and the Orioles starter tonight has not been much better! Yovani Gallardo has a 5.69 ERA on the season. Command of pitches has been an issue for the Orioles right-hander as he has walked 12 in his last 17 innings of work. Gallardo is winless with a 6.66 ERA in his 9 career starts against the Rockies and the over went 7-1-1 in those contests. The over is 5-2 in Orioles interleague action this season and 6-2 when they are home fave of -150 to -175. Also, the over is 22-11 in Baltimore's games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The O's have been on a lengthy "under" streak but that turns back around today based on this pitching match-up being very favorable for both lineups. The over is 9-3 in Rockies interleague action this season. Also, the over is a perfect 5-0 YTD in Colorado games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *8* OVER in Baltimore |
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07-24-16 | Dodgers v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #911/912 - Total Dominator - *10* Top Play OVER 9 in St Louis vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET Sunday - The Cardinals are turning to rookie Mike Mayers for this spot start. It will be his MLB debut. Mayers may indeed end up having success at the MLB level but I don't expect it right off the bat. In looking at Mayers trek through the minors he struggled every time he was bumped up a level. This is the first season he's enjoyed success at the AAA level and I expect him to struggle in his first time up in the bigs. Mayers is certainly facing a confident Dodgers lineup. Los Angeles won 7-2 yesterday and the Dodgers have averaged 5.5 runs per game in their last 8 games. The Cardinals should be able to match LA run for run here as the Cards "tee off" against Scott Kazmir. The Dodgers southpaw is off of a strong start but the soft-throwing lefty has had trouble stringing together quality back to back starts this season. He did pitch well against St Louis in May but that means the Cardinals are getting a 2nd look now and Kazmir has been known for getting roughed up in situations like this. The over is 7-2 in Kazmir's 9 road starts this season and all 3 of his career starts against the Cards have gone over the total. The over is also 5-1 in the Dodgers last 6 games overall. The over is also 17-10 in Cardinals games against left-handed starters this season and 10-4 in their Sunday games this year. *10* OVER 9 in St Louis |
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07-24-16 | Angels v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 110 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #923/924 - Slugfest Smash - *10* Top Play OVER 9 or 9.5 in Houston vs Los Angeles Angels @ 2:10 ET Sunday - The Astros Mike Fiers is coming back down to reality after pitching better than expected for much of the first half of the season. There is a mental aspect to pitching that is extremely important and I would not be surprised to see Fiers really struggle here. He got into altercations both with his manager as well as teammates after being taken out of his last start during the 4th inning. The fact is he deserved to get yanked from the outing and it was his 2nd straight rough outing. Now he faces an Angels team that rocked him for 7 earned runs in less than 4 innings back in May. That said, don't be surprised if Fiers has another short and ugly outing here as it is not the right lineup for him to "get right" against. The Angels will have pitching issues of their own in this one as Tim Lincecum gets the ball. He gave up 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work when he faced the Astros in late June. Also, Linceum has simply been awful overall this season as his ERA could easily be higher than the 6.59 it currently sits at as he has been hit at an ugly .370 clip on the year. That is not a misprint, opponents are hitting .370 against Lincecum on the season! Look for both pitchers to get rocked here as the over goes to 13-5 in Fiers' starts this season. *10* OVER in Houston |
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07-24-16 | Phillies v. Pirates UNDER 8 | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #905/906 - PA Insider - *8* UNDER 8 in Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia @ 1:35 ET Sunday - Yesterday's game went over the total but prior to that the Phillies were on a 11-2-1 run to the under in their previous 14 games. Overall, Philadelphia has been struggling at the plate and they now face Jameson Taillon whom they've never seen before. The Pirates right-hander comes into this start having allowed just 1 earned run in each of his last two starts. The Phillies will have Vincent Velasquez on the mound and the hard-throwing right-hander has extra heat on his fastballs after getting some rest with the All Star break. Velasquez has a sparkling 1.96 ERA in his last 5 starts. The under is 7-2 in the Phillies last 9 games against teams with a winning record. The under was 6-1 in the Pirates last 7 games prior to yesterday's surprising result. Look for the bats to again go quiet today in what should be a pitchers duel. *8* UNDER in Pittsburgh  |
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07-24-16 | Giants v. Yankees OVER 9 | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #929/930 - Over Easy - *8* OVER 9 in New York Yankees vs San Francisco @ 1:05 ET Sunday -Â Jeff Samardzija gets the start for the Giants and the over is 8-1-1 in his last 10 starts. The San Francisco righty has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 6 of his last 9 starts! Samardzija has been getting hit hard and he also has walked 7 in his last 2 starts. He'll be opposed by the Yankees Nathan Eovaldi who has a 6.90 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in his last 3 starts. One could not blame the Yanks right-hander if he was having nightmares heading into this start. Eovaldi has started against the Giants five times in his career and he has gone 1-4 with a ridiculous 13.30 ERA and insanely bad 2.28 WHIP. As you would expect all 5 of those starts went over the total. Look for the over to go to 6-0 in Eovaldi's career starts against San Francisco as his struggles, as well as Samardzija's, continue Sunday afternoon. *8* OVER in New York Yankees |
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07-23-16 | Rays v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #977/978 - MLB Game of the Month - *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Oakland vs Tampa Bay @ 9:05 ET Saturday - The over is 7-1 in the Rays Drew Smyly's road starts this season. He comes into this match-up with the A's struggling badly. Smyly has given up at least 4 earned runs in 8 of his last 9 starts! The southpaw is not showing any signs of improving either as he has walked 5 while striking out just 3 in his last 2 starts. Smyly has given up 22 hits (including 4 homers) in his 16 career innings against the Athletics. The A's will have Kendall Graveman on the mound for this one. Graveman faced the Rays in May this season and he gave up 4 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks while striking out just 1 in less than 6 innings of work. Graveman has a losing record in night games this season and opponents have hit him at a .293 clip in night games on the year. The Rays lineup comes into this game with plenty of confidence. Although they were shutout last night, Tampa Bay previously scored an average of 7.4 runs per game in their last 5 games. A road trip to hitter-friendly Coors Field helped the Rays lineup get back on track and they'll respond after the shutout loss yesterday. In games this season where Tampa Bay is a road dog of +100 to +125, they over is 11-3 on the year. The over is 17-6 in A's games against left-handed starters this season. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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07-23-16 | Braves v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #963/964 - Total Dominator - *8* OVER 11.5 in Colorado vs Atlanta @ 8:10 ET Saturday - Yesterday's game between these teams ended up being, by Coors Field standards, a rare low-scoring game. With the wind likely blowing out at Coors Field tonight and with a favorable pitching match-up for the hitters, tonight's game should get crazy. The Braves send Matt Wisler to the mound and 8 of his last 11 starts have resulted in an over. In his three most recent starts Wisler has compiled an ugly 7.87 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. The Rockies should get to him early and often in this one as his recent struggles continue. Colorado will have Tyler Anderson on the mound tonight and he has a low ERA in his limited starting activity so far this season. However, Anderson has been fortunate as he has given up 14 hits and 3 walks for a total of 17 baserunners in his last 12 innings of work at home. He's managed to minimize the damage done but you can only "play with fire" so long at Coors Field before you do get "burned" badly by pitching yourself into jams. The Braves are 7-1-1 to the over in their last 9 games against left-handed starters. The Rockies are 14-9 to the over in home games with a posted total of 11 or 11.5 runs. *8* OVER in Colorado |
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07-23-16 | Twins v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 11-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #973/974 - Slugfest Smash - *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston vs Minnesota @ 7:10 ET Saturday - After winning three straight games and averaging 9 runs per game, Boston had a frustrating effort at the plate last night and they'll make up for it Saturday. Facing the Twins Ricky Nolasco insures that! The Minnesota right-hander is off of a rare strong effort against the Tigers where he held them to 1 earned run in 6 innings of work even though he walked 3 and did not record a single strikeout. His strikeout numbers have been trending downward and, prior to the solid start against Detroit, Nolasco gave up 17 earned runs in his last 24 and 1/3 innings. Also, he has given up 58 hits in his last 43 innings on the mound. The Red Sox should pound this ultra-hittable veteran hurler. The Red Sox have David Price on the mound but the big name southpaw hasn't been living up to his reputation in many of his recent starts. Price has given up 44 hits in his last 30 and 1/3 innings. The Boston lefty has a 4.75 ERA during this stretch and the Twins will benefit from facing lefties in back to back starts as they faced Rodriguez yesterday. The over is 13-4 in Nolasco's starts this season and the Twins are 36-16 to the over in night games this season. Look for the Red Sox over to improve to 10-4 in Saturday games this season as they get back to their big hitting ways after yesterday's dismal effort at the plate. *10* OVER in Boston |
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07-23-16 | Giants v. Yankees OVER 9 | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
NOTE: Even though it's now Johnny Cueto getting the start for the Giants I still am playing the OVER in the Yankees game Saturday. Cueto has given up 4 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts and I look for him to struggle again on a hitter-friendly afternoon in the Bronx. Original write-up below: Rickenbach MLB Game #979/980 - Daytime Dominator - *8* OVER 8.5 in NY Yankees vs San Francisco @ 4:05 ET Saturday - I used the under in the match-up between these clubs yesterday and it was a solid winner in a game that was truly a pitchers duel. I now expect today's match-up to be anything but a pitchers duel! Jeff Samardzija gets the start for the Giants and the over is 8-1-1 in his last 10 starts. The San Francisco righty has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 6 of his last 9 starts! Samardzija has been getting hit hard and he also has walked 7 in his last 2 starts. He'll be opposed by the Yankees Ivan Nova in this one. The Yanks right-hander has allowed 3 homers in his last two starts and, overall, home runs allowed have been an issue this season for Nova. The wind is expected to be blowing out toward right field on a warm afternoon at Yankee Stadium too! Only 2 of Nova's 7 home starts this season have stayed under the total. Coming into this game it has been a long stretch of unders for the Yankees but this is the perfect spot to see the streak snapped! The over is 19-12 in Giants day games this season and the over is 7-4 in Yankees interleague games. *8* OVER 8.5 in NY Yankees |
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07-23-16 | Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 14-5 | Win | 102 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #965/966 - Earliest Cash - *8* OVER 9.5 in Toronto vs Seattle @ 1:05 ET Saturday - The Blue Jays R.A. Dickey is only 2-6 in his home starts this season. He also has a losing record and a 4.79 ERA in his daytime starts. The over is 9-5 in Blue Jays Saturday games this season and the Toronto knuckle-baller gave up 3 homers in his most recent start. The Mariners will have Hisashi Iwakuma on the mound and he is off of a strong start in his first outing after the All Star Break. However, he had previously allowed 41 hits in the 31 innings spanning his 5 prior starts. He'll get pounded this afternoon by a Blue Jays lineup hungry to bounce back at home after yesterday's 2-1 loss. The Jays had averaged 6 runs per game in their last 6 games prior to getting held to just one run yesterday. *8* OVER in Toronto |
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07-22-16 | Giants v. Yankees UNDER 7 | 2-3 | Win | 105 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
MLB Game #929/930 - Total Dominator Rickenbach *8* UNDER 7 in New York Yankees vs San Francisco @ 7:05 ET - This is a low total, especially when you consider it is being played in an American League park. However, it is absolutely justified as both of these starting pitchers are capable of putting up a lot of zeroes on the board in this one. Another big edge for Madison Bumgarner and Masahiro Tanaka in this match-up is the fact that the lineups they are facing will be seeing them for the first time ever in this inter-league game. Bumgarner is off of a rare loss and I fully expect to respond here as he previously had allowed 2 earned runs or less in 15 of his last 18 starts! Masahiro Tanaka is off of another gem and he has given up 2 earned runs or less in 14 of his 19 starts this year! The Yankees have struggled against left-handed pitching all season long and they face a true "ace" in the form of Bumgarner tonight. As for Tanaka, his slider will keep the Giants hitters off balance all night just like it did against Boston Sunday. Look for the Yankees to stay under the total for the 7th straight time. The Giants were off yesterday and, though their game Wednesday went over the total, 5 of their 6 prior games stayed under. The under is 6-3 when the Giants are playing after an off day. The under is 7-2 in Giants road games this season where they are a -125 to -150 favorite. The under is 23-14 in Yankees games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the Yanks have had just 2 overs in their 8 games a home dog of =100 to +125 so far this season. *8* UNDER 7 in New York Yankees |
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07-22-16 | Twins v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Game #919/920 - Slugfest Smash Rickenbach *10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Boston vs Minnesota @ 7:10 ET - These teams combined for 15 runs for an easy win for my Top Total yesterday and I expect a similar total to result today. Kyle Gibson of the Twins and Eduardo Rodriguez of the Red Sox square off tonight in Boston. The last time these hurlers faced these opponents it also was a match-up against each other and that game totaled 19 runs. Gibson gave up 5 runs in less than 6 innings and Rodriguez gave up 4 runs in less than 5 innings. Although Rodriguez had a strong start last week in his return from AAA, he did face a Yankees team that has often struggled this season against lefties. Also, Rodriguez managed only 1 strikeout in the game and I again expect plenty of contact against the southpaw tonight. With the wind blowing out at Fenway Park this evening and with Rodriguez being homer-prone this season, don't be surprised if the Twins get some dingers in this one. Minnesota has averaged 6 runs per game in their past dozen road games. As for the Red Sox, they are averaging 6 runs per game in their home games and they should have no trouble with the offerings of Gibson here. He has allowed 8 earned runs on 17 hits in the 11 innings of work spanning his last two starts. Gibson has a 6.75 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in his road start this year. The over is 16-9 in Twins games against left-handed starters this season and 36-15 in their night games this year. The over is 40-29 in Red Sox games against right-handed starters this season. *10* OVER 10.5 in Boston |
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07-22-16 | Indians v. Orioles OVER 9 | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
MLB Game #915/916 - Over Easy Rickenbach *8* OVER 9 in Baltimore vs Cleveland @ 7:05 ET - Dylan Bundy gets the start for the Orioles and he got rocked in his first start after moving from the bullpen to the rotation. Bundy gave up 4 earned runs in 3 and 1/3 innings and the damage easily could have been even worse as he allowed 3 walks and 3 homers in that short outing. Now the right-hander faces an Indians team that has gone 4-2 and averaged 6 runs per game since the All Star Break. Cleveland was off yesterday and they've recorded only 2 unders in 8 games this season when playing after a day off. The Indians are on a 10-3 run to the over with 2 pushes in their last 15 games. Trevor Bauer gets the call for the Indians in this one and he has given up 8 earned runs on 15 hits in less than 12 innings of work spanning his last two starts. Cleveland is winless in Bauer's three career starts against Baltimore and he has a 5.71 ERA in those outings. The O's bats will be ready to get back on track after struggling for much of the road trip they just completed yesterday afternoon. The Orioles have averaged 6.8 runs and 12.1 hits per game in their last 10 home games and they'll be happy to be back to Oriole Park at Camden Yards tonight. In O's games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the over has gone 22-7 this season. *8* OVER 9 in Baltimore |
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07-21-16 | Twins v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 2-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Rickenbach Game #963/964 - Slugfest Smash MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10 in Boston vs Minnesota @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox finally got their sticks going again in yesterday's offensive onslaught against the Giants. I look for carry over of momentum for the BoSox lineup from that big victory right into tonight's game. Boston will be facing Tyler Duffey of the Twins and he has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 9 of his last 11 starts. Duffey will be opposed by knuckle-baller Steven Wright of the Red Sox who has hit a very tough stretch over the past month. Wright has given up 15 earned runs on 27 hits in the less than 22 innings of work spanning his last 4 outings. Minnesota will fare better against him than they did last month as they now get a quick second look at his offerings and he is in a downward cycle. Duffey was the opposing starter in that outing coincidentally and he got rocked for 6 earned runs on 10 hits in 5 and 1/3 innings of work. The over is 8-4 in all of Duffey's starts this season and 6-3 in all of Wright's home starts this year. The Twins scored 10 runs in their last 2 games at Detroit (both victories) so they have some momentum coming into Fenway Park. The over is 22-11 this season in Twins games when they are off of a win. Also, Minnesota is 35-15 to the over in night games this year. The Red Sox and Twins have played 3 games this season and none have stayed under the total. Look for the over to improve to 7-2 in Thursday BoSox games this season. *10* OVER in Boston |
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07-21-16 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Game #961/962 - Earliest Cash MLB *8* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Baltimore @ 1:05 ET - Even though the Orioles Chris Tillman has been pitching very well lately and also has great numbers on the season, he gave up 5 earned runs on 8 hits (including 3 homers) in less than 6 innings of work the last time he faced the Yankees. The Yanks have scored 12 runs against the O's the last two days and they'll stay hot at the plate against Tillman whom they just saw in June. Baltimore has certainly been struggling at the plate but they get exactly what they need today as they will have a shot at a struggling hurler. C.C. Sabathia gets the start for the Yankees and he has had 5 straight rough starts. In this stretch he has given up at least 4 earned runs in all 5 starts and has allowed 39 hits in the less than 29 innings of work. With this total dropping from a 9 to an 8.5 excellent line value is being offered on the over in this game. Look for the over to improve to 18-8 in Orioles day games this season. *8* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees |
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07-20-16 | Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 102 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Rickenbach Divisional Game of the Month MLB *10* Top Play UNDER 8 in Philadelphia vs Miami @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies have been one of the streakiest teams in the league this season. They were hot early in the year and getting great pitching. Then the Phils started struggling and endured long losing stretches. Then they got hot again and even started winning games with their sticks. Now though they have reverted back to their season long struggles at the plate and I expect that to continue today. The Phillies are facing a southpaw and they rank last in the league against left-handed pitching for runs scored, home runs, and slugging percentage. That is out of all 30 teams in the majors, the Phillies are dead last. In the last 11 games for Philadelphia, only one has resulted in an over. The Phils have been getting good starting pitching again and that should continue today with Jeremy Hellickson on the mound. Each of his last 5 starts have stayed under the total and the Phillies righty has a solid 2.90 ERA during this stretch. He has held the Marlins to a 3.97 ERA in his 6 career starts against them and 5 of those 6 outings resulted in an under. 8 of the Marlins last 12 games have stayed under the total and Miami is also 10-4 to the under in Wednesday games this season. As a home dog of +100 to +125, the Phillies are 9-4 to the under this season. 12 of their 19 games against left-handed starters have resulted in unders this season. The Marlins have been held to 8 hits or less in 6 of their last 9 games. The Phils have been held to 5 hits or less in 3 straight games and 4 of their 5 games since the All Star Break. Wei-Yin Chen has a 1.11 WHIP on the road this season which is outstanding. His biggest problem recently has come via the long-ball but the Phillies have struggled to generate power against southpaws all season long. That sets this one up nicely for another pitchers' duel. *10* UNDER in Philadelphia |
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07-20-16 | Astros v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Rickenbach Slugfest Smash MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Oakland vs Houston @ 3:35 ET - The Astros Doug Fister has had great success against the A's this season but Oakland will now be seeing him for the fourth time this year. Fister also was hit harder in his only start that was at Oakland this season and the other two starts were in Houston including a solid outing two weeks ago. Looking at Fister's other recent starts (his last three not against the A's) he has given up 12 earned runs on 22 hits in 16 and 1/3 innings. Look for more struggles for him here. The Athletics will have some pitching issues of their own here. Daniel Mengden gets the start and the right-hander is having an awful July. So far this month he has a 10.80 ERA and a 2.10 WHIP. Also, in his lone start against the Astros this season he was rocked for 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. Yesterday's game between these divisional foes stayed under the total but that was just the 2nd under the Astros have had since the All Star Break and it was the first one for the A's since the break. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Mengden's last 4 starts. Also, the over is 23-13 in A's games against teams with a winning record this season. As a home dog of +100 to +125 Oakland is 7-3 to the over this season. As a road fave of -100 to -150 the Astros have gone 19-10 to the over this season. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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07-20-16 | Indians v. Royals OVER 8.5 | 11-4 | Win | 115 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Over Easy MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs +115 in Kansas City vs Cleveland @ 2:15 ET - These pitchers both have solid numbers on the season and that is resulting in some great line value on the over in this game. Kauffman Stadium is a hitter-friendly venue and the wind will be blowing out today on a stifling afternoon in Kansas City with the ball carrying very well. That means the hitters should hold the upper hand in this match-up. With yesterday's 7-3 win going over the total, Cleveland is now 9-3-2 to the over in their last 14 games. The Indians Carlos Carrasco has great numbers this season but he has been fortunate in his two starts against the Royals this year. Carrasco only allowed 5 earned runs but he gave up 19 hits in the 11 innings spanning his two starts against Kansas City! Ian Kennedy gets the start for the Royals this afternoon and he is known for giving up the long ball. The Kansas City right-hander has allowed 22 homers in his 18 starts this season. Also, Kennedy has given up 9 earned runs in less than 13 innings of work spanning his two starts against the Indians this season. The Tribe got to him for 2 homers in each of those games and that's bad news for Kennedy here considering the favorable hitting conditions expected at Kauffman Stadium this afternoon. The Royals are 4-0 to the over as a home dog of +125 to +150 this season. This will be the Indians 34th road game this season and so far only 12 have resulted in an under. *8* OVER in Kansas City |
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07-19-16 | Rays v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 10-1 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Over Easy MLB 6* OVER 11.5 in Colorado vs Tampa Bay @ 8:40 ET - The Rays have had their share of challenges in terms of offensive production this season. However, Coors Field in Colorado tends to bring out the best in even the weakest of lineups. The Rays only got 4 runs yesterday but they have now scored 9 runs in their last two games and are certainly headed the right direction. Tampa Bay should have no problems with the offerings of Tyler Chatwood today. The right-hander is winless in 2 career starts with the Rays and has compiled a 7.36 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP in those two outings. Chatwood has pitched well on the road this season but he is 3-5 with a 5.32 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in his home starts this year. He has an ugly 2.14 WHIP in his last three overall starts and two of those were on the road. The only good news for Chatwood today is that the Rockies lineup should provide plenty of run support for him. Colorado will be teeing off against Blake Snell of the Rays. The southpaw had some struggles with command of his pitches leading into the All Star break and giving up too many walks can quickly become a problem at Coors Field where the ball carries so well. The over is 23-15 in Rays road games this season. Also, the over is 8-2 in Rockies inter-league games this year. Look for the over in Coors Field games to improve to 25-16 on the season after yesterday's game ended up coming up just a run short of going over the total. 6* OVER in Colorado |
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07-19-16 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 9.5 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Slugfest Smash MLB 6* OVER 9.5 in LA Angels vs Texas @ 10:05 ET - With 5 runs in yesterday's game, the Rangers have scored at least 4 runs in 10 of their last 13 games. The Angels exploded for 9 runs yesterday and they've scored at least 5 runs in 8 of their last 11 games. With the two starting pitchers slated for tonight's game, there is no reason that both teams should not continue to pound the ball at the plate. WHIP is a great measurement of a pitchers effectiveness because it looks at how many baserunners (walks and hits) they are allowing per inning pitched. Amazingly, both of these starting pitchers have WHIPs that are above 2.00 so far this season. Allowing an average of 2 baserunners per inning shows just how bad these guys have been thusfar. Granted Kyle Lohse has only made 1 start for the Rangers but he was getting rocked at the AAA level too plus he got hammered last year in the bigs! He'll be opposed by Tim Lincecum of the Angels tonight and the right-hander has made 5 starts this season and has proven to be extremely hittable. Lincecum has an 11.05 ERA in his two home starts this season. He was lucky he only gave up 3 earned runs in his most recent starts as he allowed 9 hits plus walked 2 in less than 6 innings of work at Baltimore. The over is a perfect 6-0 in the Rangers last 6 games against teams with a losing record. The over is 38-22 in Angels Tuesday games the last 3 years combined. 6* OVER in LA Angels |
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07-19-16 | Braves v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Earliest Cash 6* UNDER 9.5 in Cincinnati vs Atlanta @ 7:10 ET - Yesterday's game between these clubs snuck over the total but it was the 6th straight game in which Atlanta was held to 4 runs or less. In fact, the Braves have been held to 4 runs or less in 11 of their last 12 games. In those 11 games Atlanta is averaging just 2.4 runs per game! Even though they face a hurler who has had some struggles adjusting to pitching at the MLB level, it is still not a good match-up. The Reds Cody Reed is a southpaw and the Braves .348 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season ranks them an anemic 29th out of all 30 MLB teams. Reed does have 29 strikeouts in his 24 and 2/3 innings of work at the MLB level so, despite the high ERA, he may prove very tough against an Atlanta lineup that just can't hit lefties. No team has struck out more against southpaws than the Braves have this season. Atlanta will have Tyrell Jenkins on the mound and the rookie was successful in his MLB debut and also has a 2.91 ERA at the AAA level in the minors this season. As a home favorite of -125 to -150, Cincinnati has had just 18 overs in their last 41 games in that price range. Look for a Braves game to stay under the total for the 10th time in their 14 Tuesday games this season. Keep in mind the Reds had averaged just 2.2 runs per game in their last 6 games before that big day at the plate yesterday. 6* UNDER in Cincinnati |
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07-18-16 | Rays v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Rickenbach Slugfest MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado vs Tampa Bay @ 8:40 ET - As a road dog of +100 to +125 the Rays are 10-2 to the over this season. The over is 6-2 in Tampa Bay's Monday games this year and the over is 8-2 in Rockies inter-league games this season. Colorado got shutout yesterday. The last 4 times they scored three runs or less they responded with a big effort at the plate each time averaging 9 runs per game in the process. The Rockies should have no problem with the offerings of the Rays Drew Smyly here. The Tampa Bay southpaw is an ugly 2-10 on the season and he has given up at least 4 earned runs per game in 7 of his last 8 starts! His ERA over this rough two month stretch is a 7.92 and going to hitter-friendly Coors Field is unlikely to help matters for Smyly! He'll be opposed by the Rockies Tyler Anderson tonight and the young southpaw has an impressive ERA this season but he's been quite fortunate. He has an amazing 2.63 ERA at home this year despite getting hit at a .313 clip at Coors Field! Anderson has given up 25 hits in less than 18 innings of work spanning his last 3 home starts. It catches up with him here. The Rays have a .471 slugging percentage against lefties this season and that is #1 in the American League. The Rockies have a ridiculous .533 slugging percentage in home games this season which is far and away the best mark in the majors. This one gets crazy EARLY in the thin air of Denver. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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07-18-16 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 10 | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Over Easy *8* OVER 10 in Detroit vs Minnesota @ 7:10 ET - Both of these clubs are off of games that stayed under the total yesterday but look for plenty of offense in this one. Minnesota will have Ricky Nolasco on the mound and he has given up 11 runs (10 earned) on 18 hits in the less than 12 innings of work spanning his last 2 road starts. Also, the Tigers have given him problems. Nolasco has faced Detroit twice this season and he has given up 9 runs (7 earned) on 17 hits in the less than 11 innings of work spanning those two starts against Detroit. The Tigers will have a pitching concern of their own in this one. Matt Boyd, a southpaw, has a 9.69 ERA in his last 3 starts and he remains winless on the season in his 6 starts this year. The young lefty just has not been able to prove that he can "stick" at the MLB level. Boyd is 1-8 with a 6.87 ERA in his MLB career and opponents have hit .295 against him in his 90+ innings of work in the bigs. Only 2 of his 6 starts this season have stayed under the total and the over is also 13-3 in Nolasco's starts this season! The Twins are 35-13 in night games this season and only 1/3 of their games against left-handed starters have resulted in an under this year. The wind should be blowing out at Comerica Park tonight and the over is 24-14 in Detroit's home games this season. Also, the Tigers are 8-2 to the over in Monday games this season. *8* OVER in Detroit |
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07-18-16 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 9 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Contrarian MLB *8* OVER 9 in New York Yankees vs Baltimore @ 7:05 ET - Both of these clubs were involved in games that stayed under the total yesterday. However, the high total (9.5) posted on this game that has since moved down to a lower total (9) is absolutely justified. The over is 22-5 this season in Orioles games with posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and that strong angle tightens up to a nearly perfect 11-1 to the over when it is a road game for Baltimore. The O's should pound Ivan Nova. The Yankees have had just 1 under in his 6 home starts and Nova has compiled a 5.01 ERA in these outings. He also has given up 10 earned runs on 15 hits in less than 12 innings of work spanning his last two starts against the Orioles. Kevin Gausman gets the start for the O's tonight and he has matched up better with the Yankees than Nova has with the Orioles. However, Gausman did allow 7 hits in 6 innings the last time he faced the Yanks and 6 hits in 5 innings the last time he faced them at Yankee Stadium. The Baltimore right-hander has struggled in each of his last two starts (both were on the road) and he remains winless on the road this season and has compiled a 5.25 ERA away from home this year. He'll give some up against a Yankees team off of a win yesterday and that averaged 8 runs per game in their 4 prior wins. As for the Orioles offense against right-handed pitching this season, they are the #1 home run hitting team and also rank #1 in slugging percentage out of all 30 MLB teams. *8* OVER in New York Yankees |
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07-17-16 | Blue Jays v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
Rickenbach Slugfest MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 in Oakland vs Toronto @ 4:05 ET Sunday - This will be a contrarian play and I am taking advantage of the early line move here from an 8.5 down to an 8. Certainly I understand the move based on this match-up of crafty left-handed pitchers but there is plenty of reason to expect a lot of offense in this one. Afternoon games at Oakland are a little more hitter-friendly as you don't have the same dense night air you have in night games along the West Coast. Additionally, the wind is going to be blowing out at Oakland Coliseum Sunday afternoon. The over is 16-5 this season in Oakland's games against left-handed starters as they have hit southpaws well this season. Sunday they face the Blue Jays J.A. Happ who gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent road start. Also, Happ has given up 3 earned runs in each of his last 2 starts against the Athletics. Rich Hill gets the start for the Blue Jays tonight and he allowed 3 earned runs in his only recent start against the Blue Jays. Also, although he has impressive numbers this season Hill has been dealing with a blister on his throwing hand which certainly could be an issue as he tries to command his pitches Sunday. It did push his start back from it's original schedule and he could be a little rusty here. The A's are 22-12 to the over this season in their games against teams with a winning record. *10* OVER 8 in Oakland |
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07-17-16 | Indians v. Twins OVER 9 | 6-1 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 0 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Over Easy MLB *8* OVER 9 in Minnesota vs Cleveland @ 2:10 ET Sunday - The Twins, heading into Saturday, were 31-15 to the over in their home games and 28-13 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record. They will be facing the Indians Josh Tomlin Sunday and he got crushed by Detroit in his last start before the All Star break and now has the extra stress of trying to work off the rust of a long layoff. Tomlin also has a 5.77 ERA in his career starts against Minnesota. Coincidentally, the Twins Kyle Gibson also has a 5.77 ERA in his career starts against the Indians. As you can see, both hurlers have had trouble against the opponents they are facing today. Additionally, Minnesota's Gibson has matched up with Hamels and the Rangers in each of his last two starts and he gave up 4 runs in each outing. The wind is expected to be blowing out at Target Field on Sunday afternoon. Tomlin has a 4.25 ERA in his day game outings this season and Gibson has struggled against left-handed batters (.309 BAA) this season and the Indians lineup will be loaded with switch-hitters and left-handed sticks. The over is 18-11 in Cleveland's day games this season and this should be another easy over here. *8* OVER 9 in Minnesota |
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07-17-16 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9 | 0-1 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Earliest Cash MLB *8* OVER 9 in Cincinnati vs Milwaukee @ 1:10 ET Sunday - These teams headed into Saturday's match-up having played 8 times this season with only 1 under resulting in those 8 games. In the Saturday match-up the Brewers already had plated 9 runs by the 3rd inning. That's bad news for the Reds Daniel Straily who comes into this match-up with a 7.02 ERA in his last 3 starts. Straily has been rocked for 4 homers in his last 3 starts. Cincinnati should join the hitting frenzy Sunday as they take advantage of facing a struggling Zach Davies who is on the fade right now. The Brewers right-hander has given up 24 hits in the 16 innings spanning his last 3 starts and Davies has a 6.19 ERA during this rough stretch. He allowed 3 homers in one of his most recent starts and he has also allowed 3 homers in his 2 career starts against the Reds. Cincy, heading into Saturday, was 21-9 to the over in divisional games this season and also 40-23 to the over in their games against right-handed starters. Milwaukee, heading into Saturday, was 7-1 in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the past three seasons. In 37 day games this season the Brewers have stayed under the total just 14 times. More of the same here at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. *8* OVER 9 in Cincinnati |
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07-16-16 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
Rickenbach Divisional Total of the Month MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in New York Yankees vs Boston @ 4:05 ET - A pair of struggling southpaws match up at Yankee Stadium Saturday afternoon and that means, even though the Yanks have had some struggles with lefties this season, there should be a barrage of hits against Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez in this one. The southpaw has gone winless with an 11.54 ERA in his last 3 starts. His lefty counterpart tonight is C.C. Sabathia who is likely to get lit up by Boston. Sabathia is also winless in his last 3 starts and he has a 7.71 ERA during this stretch. The veteran left-hander has in fact allowed 5 earned runs or more in 4 straight starts! The over, heading into the All Star Break, was on a 14-5-3 run in Yankees games. The over in Boston games was on a 12-6 run heading into the All Star Break. The mindset of Rodriguez for the Red Sox also could be called into question because his winless in the 7 starts he has made at the minor league level as well this season. Yankees bats should have no trouble with his offerings while Boston has one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball and should have no trouble pounding a struggling hurler whom they are very familiar with. Indeed Sabathia's struggles continue. The over is 9-3 in Red Sox Saturday games this season and Boston entered last night's action with a mark of 8-2 to the over this season in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Yankees are 5-1 to the over this season in home games where their money line is -100 to -125. *10* OVER in New York Yankees |
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07-15-16 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9 | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 30 h 4 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Over Easy *8* OVER 9 in Cincinnati vs Milwaukee @ 7:10 ET Friday - The Brewers send Matt Garza to the hill again and he is getting hit at a .336 clip this season. This is truly "nothing new" as he got hammered at a .294 clip last year and that was a season in which Garza ended up 6-14 with a 5.63 ERA for Milwaukee. Facing the Reds is unlikely to get him back on track to start the 2nd half of the season. Garza has given up 12 runs (11 earned) on 18 hits in 8 and 1/3 innings of work in his last two starts against Cincinnati. Both of those outings have been within the past 12 months. Garza will be opposed by the Reds Anthony DeSclafani who has a 2.23 ERA on the season but has to be one of the most fortunate guys around. He's been hit at a .284 clip this year so it's not like he's been dominant in the 6 starts he has made this season. Also, he has been rocked at a .303 clip in 2014 and .279 clip in 2015 so far in his young career. DeSclafani gave up 5 runs (4 earned) in 4 and 1/3 innings the last time he faced the Brewers and I look for more of the same here. The Reds have recorded just 6 unders in their last 18 games and play their home games in a very hitter-friendly park. Look for another wild one here. *8* OVER in Cincinnati Friday |
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07-15-16 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 60 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Philadelphia vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET Friday - Bartolo Colon gets the start for the Mets Friday. Although he was successful in shutting down the Phillies quite well in a pair of starts in April, the Phils were winning with pitching back then. Philadelphia's current winning streak has been thanks to hitting and they're catching Colon at the right time to do some damage. Not only are they seeing him for a 3rd time this season but also he was rocked for 6 earned runs on 10 hits in less than 5 innings of work in his final start before the all star break. He'll be opposed by the Phillies Jeremy Hellickson in this one. The veteran righty gave up 4 earned runs on 10 hits in only 4 and 1/3 innings of work the last time he faced the Mets and they'll be seeing him for a 3rd time this season. Hellickson has not pitched as well in evening games as he has under the sun as he has a 2.78 ERA in day games but a 4.50 ERA in night games this season. Citizens Bank Field is hitter-friendly and the Phillies entered the All Star Break having gone 23-13 to the over in their last 36 games! The Mets 56 homers on the road ranks them 4th in the National League and I look for some fireworks as they have already hit 3 homers in Hellickson's 10 innings against them this season. *10* OVER in Philadelphia Friday |
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07-12-16 | American League v. National League OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in National League vs American League @ 8:15 ET Tuesday - Unlike the NFL (Pro Bowl) or NBA (All Star Game), the MLB game is anything but meaningless. The fact that the World Series host league is decided based on who wins this game definitely has helped to keep the competition level up for this game. That said, I look for another dandy this year. Even though Petco Park is certainly known as a pitcher-friendly park, the Padres have surprisingly been recording a lot of overs in their home park this season. This has been especially true over more than the past month too so it's no fluke. Certainly San Diego's home park is no hitters' park but the production at the plate here has been stronger than usual this season. Three of the last four All Star games have totaled at least 8 runs and, though it was more than two decades ago, historians will be glad to know the last time an All Star Game was held in San Diego it totaled 19 runs! This season overall in the big leagues it has been notable that offense does seem to be "up" on the year. Even in April there seemed to be more high-scoring games than usual but certainly once the warmer weather of May and June (and now July) arrived, the scoring really seems to be on an "uptick" this season. Of course it goes without saying that there will be plenty of talented pitchers as well as talented players in San Diego for this one. The keys for me are the fact that hitters have had the upper hand quite often this season and the fact that Petco Park has been playing to unusually high-scoring games this season. The past 7 weeks the over is 16-7 (70%) in games played at Petco Park. For the 4th time in the past 5 years, and with plenty to play for again this season, I look for at least 8 runs to be scored in the MLB All Star Game. *10* OVER in MLB All Star Game Tuesday |
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07-10-16 | Mariners v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Kansas City vs Seattle @ 2:15 ET - Yesterday's game stayed just under the total but, based on the pitching match-up and the wind blowing out to left at a good clip this afternoon, a slugfest can be expected Sunday. The Mariners are starting Mike Montgomery. The southpaw has pitched well out of the bullpen this season but is now making a spot start for Seattle. The M's lefty struggled often in the starting role last year and, in his last three starts of 2015, Montgomery gave up 17 earned runs on 23 hits in less than 10 innings of work! He's facing a Royals team that did get the sticks going again yesterday as they pounded out 12 hits in only 8 innings! Kansas City is hitting .286 against left-handed pitching this season which is good for the #2 spot out of all 30 MLB teams. Seattle is hitting .266 against right-handed pitching and that is good for the #5 spot among AL teams. The Mariners should have no trouble with the offerings of Dillon Gee. The Royals right-hander was 0-3 with a 7.90 ERA last season with the Mets in 8 games (7 starts) and he got hit at a .329 clip! This season, opponents are hitting .299 against Gee and that includes his numbers out of the pen but he's been even worse as a starter. This will be just his 5th start of the season and he's making a spot start here. Gee has gone 2-2 with a 6.05 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP this year as a starter. Gee has been particularly roughed up in his last two starts and they both went over the total. This one should too because neither pitcher is likely to enjoy success here and the Mariners had gone 8-6 and averaged 5 runs per game in their last 14 games before yesterday's tough effort at the plate. The Royals are averaging 5 runs per game in their last 13 home games and will build off of yesterday's strong effort at the plate. *10* OVER in Kansas City |
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07-10-16 | Angels v. Orioles OVER 10 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Over Easy *8* OVER 10 in Baltimore vs Los Angeles Angels @ 1:35 ET - The Angels Tim Lincecum won his first start but he has struggled mightily since then. In his last 3 starts he has gone winless with a 10.50 ERA and a ridiculous 2.58 WHIP. Although his counterpart, Chris Tillman, has much better numbers on the season, he has a similarity in that he is also struggling. The Orioles right-hander is off of a good start at Los Angeles against the Dodgers but he previously allowed 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts! As you would expect, all 5 of those starts went over the total. Though yesterday's game stayed under the total, Baltimore had gone over the total in 9 of their 11 prior games! The Angels had been on a 9-6 run to the over before yesterday's 3-2 loss to the Orioles. The Angels are 35-24 to the over against right-handed starters this season. The O's are 8-4 to the over the last 12 times they have been a home favorite of -175 to -200. Also, Baltimore is 17-6 to the over in day games this season. I look for the over to improve to 10-2 in Orioles Sunday games this season with a wild one at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. *8* OVER in Baltimore |
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07-10-16 | Tigers v. Blue Jays OVER 10.5 | 1-6 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Earliest Cash *8* OVER 10.5 in Toronto vs Detroit @ 1:05 ET - The Tigers Anibal Sanchez is having a rough season and certainly is showing no signs of snapping out of it. The Detroit right-hander has a 12.41 ERA and 2.11 WHIP in his last three starts. Of course both of those statistics are very poor and a visit to Toronto is unlikely to help matters for Sanchez. The last time he pitched at the Rogers Centre he was rocked for 4 earned runs on 10 hits in less than 5 innings of work. His counterpart for that start was the same as today as he matched up with R.A. Dickey. The veteran knuckle-baller gets the start for the Jays here and he has a 5.09 ERA in his last three starts against the Tigers but that could easily be even higher. Dickey has given up 26 hits (including 4 homers) in the less than 18 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts against Detroit. Although Dickey comes into this start off of a strong outing in his most recent appearance, he prior two starts show his form hasn't been "top notch" recently. Dickey gave up 8 runs (7 earned) on 14 hits (including 6 homers!) in the 12 and 1/3 innings spanning his two prior starts. The over is 11-2 in the 13 starts Sanchez has made this season. The over is 20-12 in Detroit's day games this season plus 38-23 against right-handed starters and 30-17 in their games against teams with a winning record on the season. *8* OVER in Toronto |
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07-09-16 | Twins v. Rangers OVER 11.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 105 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
Rickenbach AL Total of the Month *10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Texas vs Minnesota @ 9:05 ET - The Rangers are turning to Kyle Lohse for this start. That is unlikely to have positive results for Texas as Lohse is 3-5 with a 5.06 ERA in his 10 starts at AAA Round Rock this season down in the minors. In his most recent MLB activity, last season, Lohse compiled a 5-13 record with Milwaukee as he was done in by a 5.85 ERA and getting hit at a .297 clip. The 37 year old right-hander is simply not the pitcher he once was and the Twins should pound him. Yesterday's game went over the total and Minnesota had had just 3 unders in their last 10 games. The Twins have produced 6.4 runs per game while averaging nearly 10 hits per game in their last 12 games. Lohse faced Minny twice last season and he gave up 9 earned runs in 12 innings against the Twins. Minnesota has a pitching concern of their own in this game. Ricky Nolasco gets the start and he is 3-7 with a 5.26 ERA on the season plus he has allowed 14 earned runs on 23 hits in the 18 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. His last game stayed under the total but that was just the 3rd under in 17 Nolasco starts this season! Yes indeed, he has been an "over machine" in 2016. Texas has also been an "over machine" of late as they have had just 3 unders in their last 12 games. The Rangers are a top 5 team this season for home batting average (.281) and the Twins are averaging 7.6 runs per game in their last 7 games. The over is an incredible 26-12 in Minnesota's games against teams with a winning record this season and even more incredible 34-12 in Twins night games this season! The Rangers have scored at least 5 runs in 12 of their last 16 games and both teams have had bullpen issues this season too. All signs point to an absolute slugfest here. *10* OVER 11.5 in Texas |
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07-09-16 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Over Easy *8* OVER 10 in Boston vs Tampa Bay @ 4:05 ET - The Rays are winless in Matt Moore's 6 road starts this season and the Rays southpaw has gone 0-3 with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP in these six outings. The Red Sox are undefeated in Rick Porcello's home starts this season but the Red Sox right-hander has given up 8 runs (7 earned) while allowing 20 hits in only 11 and 1/3 innings of work spanning his last two outings at Fenway Park. The over is 9-2 in Porcello's last 11 starts. With yesterday's 6-5 Red Sox win going over the total, the over is 11-4 in Boston's last 15 games. As a home fave of -150 to -175, the Red Sox are 5-1 to the over this season. Also, Boston has gone 9-2 to the over in Saturday games this year. When playing against a team with a losing record, the over is 29-16 in Red Sox games this season. The over is 23-13 in Rays road games this season. Tampa Bay has 17 hits in the 14 innings spanning Porcello's last two starts against the Rays here at Fenway Park. Moore has gone 4-5 with a 5.57 ERA in his career outings against the Red Sox. Moore has been great at home this season while struggling badly on the road. Porcello has been fantastic overall this season but has started to fade in his recent home starts and I expect him to struggle again in afternoon action Saturday. *8* OVER 10 in Boston |
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07-08-16 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Over Easy *8* OVER 10 in Boston vs Tampa Bay @ 7:10 ET - Chris Archer is a big "name" among pitchers in MLB but he's certainly had his share of struggles this season and this has been particularly true on the road. Archer has just 3 wins in his 9 road starts this season and he has compiled a 6.66 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP away from. Not surprisingly, only 3 unders have resulted in those 9 road starts. Archer will be facing the Red Sox for the third time this season and, so far, he has allowed 10 earned runs in 10 and 2/3 innings of work against the BoSox. Boston will counter with Sean O'Sullivan tonight and the over is a perfect 3-0 in his starts this season. O'Sullivan is 2-0 as a starter this season but his 6.46 ERA and 1.70 WHIP tell the real story. The over is 10-2 this season in Rays road games where they are a small dog in the +100 to +125 range. The over is 37-25 in Red Sox games against right-handed starters this season. The over is 25-17 when Boston is off of a win and 28-16 in their games against teams with a losing record this season. With the Red Sox off of an 11-6 win and having averaged 11 runs per game in their last 4 games, they should have no trouble connecting against an inconsistent Archer tonight. The Rays and Red Sox have combined to go over the total in 4 of their 6 meetings this season and O'Sullivan will bring out the best in a Rays lineup looking to bounce back after some recent struggles at the plate. Tampa Bay does tend to produce more runs on the road than at home. *8* OVER in Boston |
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07-08-16 | Tigers v. Blue Jays OVER 10 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 10 in Toronto vs Detroit @ 7:05 ET - The Tigers Mike Pelfrey is off of a RARE good start as he held the Rays in check in Tampa Bay Sunday. He still is winless on the road this season and has a 5.42 ERA on the year. Also, even including that good start, Pelfrey has allowed 30 hits in the less than 17 innings of work spanning his last three starts. Now he faces a red hot Blue Jays team that has won 6 straight games and is on a 9-4 run in their last 13 games that has seen Toronto produce an average of nearly 7 runs per game! Pelfrey has been rocked for 9 earned runs in the 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts against the Blue Jays. He'll be opposed by Toronto's J.A. Happ this evening in Toronto. The Jays southpaw has led his team to only 1 win in his 5 career starts against the Tigers while producing a 5.16 ERA in those outings. In his 3 starts against Detroit within the past year, Happ has been rocked for 13 earned runs in 16 innings of work. The over is 6-2 in Happ's 8 home starts this season. Pelfrey's most recent start was a surprising one that stayed under the total but 7 of his 11 prior starts went over the total and I look for a return to "normalcy" for the ultra hittable Pelfrey tonight. Detroit's games against team with a winning record this season have gone 30-15 (67%) to the over. The Tigers, before last night's 5-4 loss here, had won 7 of their last 9 games and averaged nearly 7 runs per game during the hot streak. Plenty of pop in both of these lineups and plenty of reason to believe both hurlers struggle tonight. *10* OVER in Toronto |
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07-07-16 | Phillies v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado vs Philadelphia @ 8:40 ET - The Phillies Adam Morgan has a 1.60 WHIP. The Rockies Chad Bettis has a 1.52 WHIP. Allowing too many base-runners (measured by Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched) is a key measurement in looking at all MLB match-ups but it is especially key at Coors Field. That's because it is the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the entire league and the ball carries so well that big innings are commonplace in this venue. Yes the total of 12 (and possibly moving to 12.5 or higher) is certainly a big number but it is absolutely justified in this situation. The Phillies have been hitting the ball very well. The Phils 4-3 win yesterday makes them 9-3 their last 12 games. Philadelphia has averaged scoring 6 runs per game in these dozen games! The Rockies, as so typically happens, struggled to score runs on their west coast road trip that wrapped up last night in San Francisco. However, Colorado is thrilled to be back home where they are simply a different team! The Rockies are hitting .305 at home this season (and remember the pitcher bats too in NL parks so this is an insane team batting average) and Colorado has averaged 6.34 runs per game at Coors Field. The Phillies Morgan has a 6.55 ERA on the season and the Rockies Bettis has a 6.69 ERA in his 7 home starts this season. 4 of his last 5 home starts have gone over the total while Morgan's starts have resulted in 5 straight overs! I expect 6-0, 100% here and I also expect the Rockies to improve to 8-0, 100% overs in Thursday games this season. Two 100% streaks being tested here. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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07-07-16 | Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB PA Insider *8* UNDER 8.5 in St Louis vs Pittsburgh @ 1:45 ET - The Cardinals Adam Wainwright has a 2.15 ERA in his last 7 home starts. The Pirates will have 6'8 Tyler Glasnow making his MLB debut. The big right-hander is an imposing presence on the mound and he's already been using that to his advantage in the minors and is one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Glasnow is 7-2 with a 1.78 ERA and has been a strikeout machine at AAA Indianapolis. Yesterday's game went over the total but 6 of the Cardinals 7 prior games stayed under the total. The under is also 7-1-1 in Wainwright's last 9 starts. That's right, since mid-May, only 1 of his starts has resulted in an over. 8 of Wainwright's last 10 starts have been quality starts. When the Pirates have been on a wining streak of 3 games or more the past three seasons, they have gone 47-28 to the under. Cardinals Thursday games are 6-2 to the under this season and their home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs have resulted in an 11-5 mark to the under. When the Cards have been on a losing streak of 3 games or more the past three seasons, they have gone 11-6 to the under. Look for a pitchers duel between the phenom and the veteran in this one as they both try to outduel each other in what should prove to be an intriguing match-up this afternoon. *8* UNDER in St Louis |
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07-07-16 | Angels v. Rays OVER 9 | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Earliest Cash *8* OVER 9 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels @ 12:10 ET - The Angels will start Hector Santiago who has walked 8 in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts and the Rays will start Blake Snell who has walked 8 in the less than 11 innings spanning his last two starts. As you can, both pitchers are having issues with command of their pitches. The Rays won 7-2 yesterday and have now won 3 of their last 5 games and scored 9.6 runs per game during this hot streak at the plate. Snell won't slow them down! He has a 5.15 ERA and a 2.22 WHIP in his 3 home starts this season. The Rays got to Santiago for 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his lone career start against them and that was recent enough (last summer) to reasonably expect Tampa Bay to again enjoy success against him. Though Tampa Bay has scored only 11 runs in the first three games of this four game series, the Rays have averaged 10 hits per game and they continue their "hit parade" today against Santiago. The overs is 12-7 in Tampa Bay's games against left-handed starters this season and the over is 5-1 in Rays Thursday games this year. *8* OVER in Tampa Bay |
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07-06-16 | Brewers v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Washington vs Milwaukee @ 4:05 ET - Matt Garza has a 3.74 ERA on the season in his limited action thusfar but he's been about as lucky as you can be. Garza has given up 29 hits in less than 22 innings of work spanning his 4 starts. One of those starts came against the Nationals less than 2 weeks ago so the Nats will be getting a quick second look at him. Likewise, Washington's Tanner Roark just faced the Brewers less than 2 weeks ago so Milwaukee is getting a quick second look at him. These types of scenarios (especially with two mediocre pitchers) usually work out well for the hitters! Roark has allowed 15 hits in the 14 innings spanning his last two starts but amazingly has given up only 2 earned runs during this time. His "luck" runs out today in a rematch with the Brewers. Yesterday's game was a 5-2 Milwaukee win and there hasn't been much scoring so far in this series but that should change on a mild afternoon in DC with favorable conditions for the hitters. The ball should be jumping off the bats today and Garza is not a strikeout pitcher and Roark's strikeout numbers have been trending downward of late. This is one of those contrarian plays where the public sees two guys with low ERAs but I see two pitchers who have been fortunate and are currently over-rated as a result. Roark was 4-7 with a 4.38 ERA and a .279 BAA last season. Garza was 6-14 with a 5.63 ERA and was hit at a .294 clip last season. Back to reality for these two hurlers today as the bats come alive in the finale! *10* OVER in Washington |
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07-06-16 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 7.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -118 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Over Easy *8* OVER 7.5 in New York Mets vs Miami @ 1:10 ET - Yesterday's game was a 5-2 Marlins win that stayed just under the total. Miami is still 9-2 to the over in their last 11 games. With Justin Nicolino on the mound for the Marlins, the over streak should quickly resume today. The Miami southpaw has made 11 starts this season and the over is 8-3 in those games. Each of Nicolino's last 5 games have gone over the total and that is not a "shocker" considering that he's simply been getting hammered as if he's throwing batting practice. The Marlins left-hander has given up 30 earned runs on 63 hits in the 40 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 8 starts. That equates to a 6.69 ERA and, as you can see, Nicolino has been extremely hittable. He has not last longer than 5 and 2/3 innings in 8 straight starts. He'll be opposed by Jacob deGrom of the Mets. The New York right-hander has excellent stats this season and that is helping to keep this total on the low side. The key here is that deGrom has given up 9 earned runs on 19 hits in the 11 innings spanning his last two starts against the Marlins and both of those starts occurred in the past 10 months. The Mets just saw Nicolino less than 5 weeks ago and he was fortunate he allowed only 2 earned runs as he was rocked for 9 hits in 5 and and 1/3 innings. Look for the over to go to 6-3 this season in deGrom's home starts. The over is 18-10 in Marlins day games this season and 27-15 in Miami's road games this season as they are the #1 hitting team on the road so far this year out of all 30 MLB teams. *8* OVER 7.5 in New York Mets |
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07-06-16 | Tigers v. Indians OVER 8.5 | 12-2 | Win | 102 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Earliest Cash *8* OVER 8.5 in Cleveland vs Detroit @ 12:10 ET - The over is 6-3 in Michael Fullmer's 9 road starts this season. The over is a perfect 6-0 in Josh Tomlin's 7 home starts this season. With yesterday's easy over (12-1 Indians win) the over is now 19-4 in the last 23 meetings between these clubs in Cleveland. This will be the 4th time already this season that Detroit is facing Tomlin. Familiarity with a pitcher generally leads to success and Tomlin allowed 3 Tigers homers when he faced them less than 2 weeks ago and he gave up 9 hits in 6 innings in his prior start against Detroit (in May). Fullmer got hammered by the Indians at Cleveland in early May as they got to him for 5 earned runs on 10 hits in just 5 innings of work. The over is 25-13 this season in Tigers games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is 19-11 in Detroit's day games this season and 29-14 in Tigers games against teams with a winning record this year. The over is 23-13 in Cleveland's home games this season including 12-6 in Indians home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this year. *8* OVER 8.5 in Cleveland |
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07-05-16 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 8 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Over Easy *8* OVER 8 in New York Mets vs Miami @ 7:10 ET - The Mets won 8-6 yesterday and have now won 5 straight and have averaged scoring 8 runs per game during this hot streak. This season, when the Mets enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more, the over is 10-2. Also, that recorded is no fluke as the last three seasons combined the Mets are 41-22 to the over when they enter a game having won 3 or more consecutive games. The Marlins, as a road dog of +125 to +175 are 8-3 to the over this season and 48-33 to the over the last three seasons combined. Overall Miami has been an "over machine" on the road this season with a 27-14 mark to the over so far this year. This is a battle of southpaws tonight and the Marlins rank 4th in the NL for batting average versus lefties. The Mets rank in the top half of the NL for slugging percentage against left-handers. The Marlins are hitting .291 on the road this season which is tops out of all 30 MLB teams. The Mets 55 homers in home games ties them for 4th out of all 30 teams. Look for plenty of offense tonight as the Marlins Wei-Yin Chen has a 7.37 ERA in his last 3 starts and also the over is 5-2 in his road starts this season. The Mets Steven Matz has a 6.32 ERA in his last 3 starts and has given up 16 hits in the less than 10 innings of work spanning his last 2 starts. Matz has an 11.57 ERA in his two career starts against the Marlins. *8* OVER 8 in New York Mets |
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07-05-16 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia vs Atlanta @ 7:05 ET - With yesterday's 8-2 Phillies victory, the Braves have now gone 6-2 to the over in their last 8 games and Philadelphia is now 22-10 to the over since June 1st. Earlier this season it was the Phillies pitching staff that was a key in their surprising solid start to the season. Then, after a slump followed the hot start, it is now the Phillies lineup that is leading the resurgence. Philadelphia has averaged 6 runs per game in their last 13 games and they have won 8 of their last 11 games! The Phillies Zach Eflin gets the start today and the over is 3-1 in his 4 starts so far. His first start, his MLB debut, looks like the ugliest outing he's had but though his stats indicate he may have recovered a bit from that he truly hasn't. Eflin gave up 4 runs (3 earned) to the Diamondbacks in his most recent start. In his prior start, at San Francisco, the numbers look okay but he gave up a ton of line drives in that game and was just fortunate that many were caught for outs. Eflin doesn't get many strikeouts and contact at Citizens Bank Park can be a problem. He'll be opposed by Mike Foltynewicz and he only went 3 innings in his return from the disabled list as his start was shortened due to rain. He was not overly impressive in that outing and he certainly wasn't overly impressive in his lone career start against the Phils which was last season as he allowed 4 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings. That game went over the total and Atlanta is 17-9 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Phillies are 46-31 to the over the past three seasons in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. *10* OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia |
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07-05-16 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 9 | 9-5 | Win | 105 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Earliest Cash *8* OVER 9 in Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati @ 2:20 ET - Though not a strong wind, what wind there will be at Wrigley Field this afternoon will be blowing out toward center. That adds a lot of value here because both of these pitchers have been prone to giving up homers. The Reds Brandon Finnegan has given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts and that has been part of the problem that led to a 9.64 ERA in those 3 outings. The Cubs John Lackey has also given up 4 homers in his last three outings and that has helped lead to a winless stretch and a 6.48 ERA in his last three starts. The Cubs rolled 10-4 yesterday and they have had just 1 under in their last 11 games! The Reds were on the wrong end of the scoreboard in that 10-4 game yesterday and they have had just 1 under in their last 8 games! The over is 20-8 in Reds games against divisional opponents this season. Also, the over is a perfect 5-0 this season when Cincy is a road dog in a range of +200 to +225 as they are here. In Cincy road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the over is 8-3 the past three seasons! The over is 38-21 in Reds games against right-handed starters this season. The Cubs have played 39 day games this season and only 1/3 of them have stayed under the total! Just 13 unders in 39 day games for the Cubbies and this one has the makings of a wild one as both these starters also got rocked when they last faced today's opponent in a series in Cincinnati in late April. More of the same today! *8* OVER 9 in Chicago Cubs game |
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07-04-16 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in New York Mets vs Miami @ 4:10 ET - The Marlins are off of a 5-2 win over the Braves in a game played at Fort Bragg, NC Sunday night as part of the special festivities surrounding the July 4th weekend. Miami could have scored much more than the 5 runs they pushed across the plate in that game as the Marlins ended up stranding 10 baserunners in that game. Miami has averaged 5 runs per game in their last 9 games and the over is 8-1 in these games. The Marlins should have no trouble with the offerings of the Mets Matt Harvery as he is struggling right now. Though his last start was cut short by rain, it is not as if Harvey was enjoying success in that start anyway. The Mets right-hander walked 3 and gave up 4 hits in less than 4 innings of work in the rain-shortened outing. Prior to the start against the Nats, Harvey had given up at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his last 8 starts. He's given up 19 hits in the 15 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. He won't be the only starter struggling this afternoon. Tom Koehler gets the start for the Marlins and he has given up 9 earned runs on 15 hits in his last 9 innings of work. Now he takes on a Mets team that exploded for 14 runs yesterday afternoon and will be stepping to the plate with plenty of confidence this afternoon. Each of Koehler's last three starts against the Mets have gone over the total. As a road dog of +125 to +150, the over is 5-1 in Marlins games this season. The Mets lineup is likely to stay red hot after their 4-game sweep of the Cubs that saw New York average 8 runs per game. Low total here and considering the overall mediocre recent results of these two starting pitchers, I am happy to take advantage of the low number here. *10* OVER in New York Mets |
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07-04-16 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Over Easy *8* OVER 10.5 runs in Boston vs Texas @ 1:35 ET - The wind is expected to be blowing out toward right-center at Fenway Park this afternoon. Though Boston's Rick Porcello has great numbers on the year (and is undefeated at home) he has started to show some signs of a downturn in recent outings at Fenway. Porcello has given up 16 hits in the 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 2 home starts. He was somewhat fortunate that the damage wasn't worse than the 6 combined earned runs he allowed in those two outings. Porcello now faces Texas and he is only 4-4 with a 5.68 ERA in his career starts against the Rangers. Texas really hammered him the last time Porcello hosted them. That was when he was the Tigers in 2014 and Porcello gave up 8 earned runs on 12 hits (including 2 homers) in 5 and 1/3 innings. Look for another rough outing for him this afternoon as the Rangers have been doing a solid job at the plate and have recorded only 3 unders in their last 12 games. The problem for Texas today is going to be their own pitching! Nick Martinez gets the start for Texas and, as I mentioned in previous write-ups about him, he wasn't even having success at the AAA level in the minors this season (opponents hitting .292 against him) so it's no surprise that he's also struggling at the MLB level. Martinez has twice as many walks as strikeouts in his 3 starts since returning to the bigs and his 1.63 WHIP is certainly a concern. Boston just saw him less than 2 weeks ago and he gave up 4 earned runs in that 6-inning start. A rematch with him at Fenway is likely to result in an even uglier stat-line for Martinez. Look for the over to improve to 9-3 in Boston's last 12 games. Also, the Red Sox are 36-24 to the over against right-handed starters this season and 5-1 to the over as a home fave of -150 to -175 this year. The Rangers are 4-1 to the over the last 5 times they've been on the road with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. The big number on this afternoon's game is absolutely justified. This should be a slugfest! *8* OVER 10.5 in Boston |
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07-04-16 | Brewers v. Nationals UNDER 7 | 1-0 | Win | 105 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Earliest Cash *8* UNDER 7 runs in Washington vs Milwaukee @ 11:05 AM ET - If we can hold off the rain here, we should be able to cash in a nice ticket here in a game that should move along at a good pace with two pitchers "on top of their game" right now. Early forecasts show that the most significant rains should be moving into the DC area by mid-afternoon but with the extra early start time (11 AM ET) for this 4th of July game, these teams may able to wrap things up before having a rain delay or cancellation. Washington's Max Scherzer continues to pile up the strikeouts as he has struck out 58 in his last 41 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 6 starts! In 5 of the 6 starts he reached double digits in strikeouts and he held opponents to 2 earned runs or less in 5 of the 6 starts. The lone exception was a start at Milwaukee late last month. He did strike out 10 Brewers but gave up 5 earned runs as he did give up two homers in that start. That was his only loss during this 6 start stretch so he'll be out for a little revenge today and he's compiled a stellar 2.62 ERA in his 18 day game starts since he came to Washington. As for the Brewers Junior Guerra, his splitter has been a key of late as it is breaking late in the strike zone and giving the opposition fits. Guerra has allowed a total of only 2 earned runs on just 7 hits while striking out 15 in the 15 innings spanning his last two starts. The under is 7-2 in Guerra's last 9 starts and the Brewers had scored a total of only 2 runs in their last 3 games before they finally had a big day at the plate yesterday at St Louis. Look for their run-scoring woes to resume today against a very tough pitcher. As for the Nationals, they had been held to 4 runs or less in 9 of their last 13 games before their offense erupted in yesterday's big win over the Reds. Just like the Brewers, I look for a return to run-scoring woes for the Nats this afternoon against a pitcher who is really throwing well right now. Guerra has never faced Washington so that is an edge for the pitcher as the lineup doesn't have an experience edge against him. As for Scherzer he has struck out 26 while allowing only 6 hits in 15 innings against the Brewers in his last two starts versus Milwaukee. Look for a pitchers duel here. *8* UNDER 7 in Washington |
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07-03-16 | Marlins v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB ESPN CRUSHER *8* OVER 8.5 in Atlanta vs Miami @ 8:05 ET - With the Marlins 9-1 loss at Atlanta yesterday, the over is now a perfect 8-0 in Miami's last 8 games. Tonight's game will take place at Fort Bragg in North Carolina and is quite the event as this special 4th of July holiday weekend includes a unique game in a very unique venue that I expect to prove to be a very hitter-friendly park! Taking a look at tonight's pitching match-up, the over is 6-3 in Adam Conley's 9 road starts for the Marlins this season. He has struggled in 4 straight road outings with 16 runs (15 earned) given up on 29 hits in only 20 and 1/3 innings of work. That equates to a 6.64 ERA for Conley in his last 4 starts away from home and he's facing a Braves team that has scored 22 runs on 34 hits so far in this series. The Marlins got to the Braves Matt Wisler in his only career start against them. That outing was last season and Miami had 9 hits and scored 5 runs (all earned) against Wisler in 5 and 1/3 innings of work. The over is 6-2 in the Braves right-hander's last 8 starts. In Atlanta games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs, the over is 16-8 this season. The over is 26-17 in Miami games this year when they are up against teams with a losing record. *8* OVER 8.5 in Atlanta |
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07-03-16 | Pirates v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB 1st Half TOTAL OF THE YEAR *10* OVER 8.5 in Oakland vs Pittsburgh @ 4:05 ET - Make no mistake, Daniel Mengden has pitched surprisingly well for Oakland since his call-up from the minors. However, he does not have overpowering stuff and I expect him to struggle against the red-hot Pirates this afternoon. With their 4-2 win yesterday, Pittsburgh is 6-2 in their last 8 games and has averaged 5.4 runs per game during this stretch. Oakland also has been swinging the bats well. Prior to being held to 2 runs yesterday, the Athletics had averaged 6.9 runs per game in their last 9 games. Oakland should certainly bounce back against the Pirates Francisco Liriano today. Not only has the Pirates southpaw been struggling, the A's rank 8th out of all 30 MLB teams for slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. This has played a big role in the over being 14-4 in Oakland's games against southpaw starters this season! Liriano is 1-4 with a 6.98 ERA in his 7 road starts this season. The Pirates lefty has been issuing too many walks and is having trouble with location of his pitches in the strike zone. This has played a key role in Liriano allowing at least 4 earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Pittsburgh southpaw has walked 29 in the 36 innings spanning his last 7 starts. The over is 21-10 this season in Pirates games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Pittsburgh's interleague games are 10-4 to the over this season and day games have gone 17-9 to the over. The over is 37-23 in Pirates games against right-handed starters and the over is 19-6 in their games against teams with a losing record. The A's pound Liriano as they look to avoid the sweep but I also expect Mengden (0-3 in day games) to come back to reality after pitching "over his head" so far at the big league level. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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07-03-16 | Tigers v. Rays OVER 8.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Earliest Cash *8* OVER 8.5 in Tampa Bay vs Detroit @ 1:10 ET - Yesterday's 3-2 Tigers win stayed under the total but it brought Detroit to 9-3 their last 12 games. The Tigers have averaged 5.8 runs per game during this hot streak and their bats should resume the hot hitting today. The problem for Detroit is they have Mike Pelfrey on the mound. The veteran right-hander is 2-7 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.81 WHIP on the season. Amazingly, the Tigers have won each of Pelfrey's last two starts even though he's given up 24 hits in just 10 and 1/3 innings spanning those two starts. As you can see, he's been in incredibly hittable and I look for that to continue this afternoon as Pelfrey is winless with a 5.63 ERA in his three career starts against Tampa Bay. The Rays will have Chris Archer on the mound and he has not been himself lately. Archer has had trouble with command of his pitches and this has frequently led to too many walks and too many big hits. That's why he has allowed at least 3 earned runs per start in 7 of his last 8 starts. That ugly stretch all began with Archer's tough outing at Detroit when the Tigers got to him for 6 earned runs in only 3 innings of work. I expect more of the same today. The over is 24-12 in Detroit games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The over is also 19-10 in Tigers day games and 36-19 in their games against right-handed starters this year. Both Detroit and the Rays were 6-1 to the over their last 7 games before yesterday's 3-2 battle stayed under. Look for both lineups to resume the hot hitting this afternoon. *8* OVER 8.5 in Tampa Bay |
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07-02-16 | Reds v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Over Easy *8* OVER 8.5 in Washington vs Cincinnati @ 7:15 ET - These teams went into extra innings yesterday and used up some bullpen arms. That could certainly become an issue today because the Reds Daniel Straily has tallied a total of only 14 innings in his last 3 starts and that means the Cincy bullpen could be called upon early in this one and the Reds have had one of the worst bullpens in MLB this season. Straily has a 10.93 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in his last three starts. Also, the over is 7-2 in his last 9 games. He'll be opposed by Joe Ross who has given up 17 hits in his last 12 and 1/3 innings. Sure the Nats right-hander has impressive full-season numbers but he's been very hittable of late and the Reds trend of overs should resume after a rare low-scoring match-up yesterday. The over is 8-2 in Nationals Saturday games this season. Also, the over is 18-10 in Reds games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. Overall, the over is 22-13 in Cincinnati road games this season. I expect the over to improve to 4-1, 80% this season when Washington is a home favorite in a range of -200 to -225. The Nationals should absolutely pound Straily in this one. *8* OVER 8.5 in Washington |
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07-02-16 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 21-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 10 in Boston vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game between these clubs was unbelievable. The teams combined for 28 hits but yet scored only 9 runs. It was one of the worst beats on an over that I have seen in a long time. We should get redemption today by coming right back with the same selection as the pitching match-up is conducive to an over and both teams are swinging the bats well as evidenced yesterday. The Angels will have Hector Santiago and he has struggled in most of his starts since late April. The Los Angeles southpaw has had only 3 quality starts out of his 12 starts dating back to April 29th. The over is 9-2 in Santiago's last 11 starts and he has a 6.48 ERA in his last 12 starts. He gave up 6 earned runs versus Oakland last week and gave up 8 hits in 5 innings the last time he faced the Red Sox. Boston will have Clay Buchholz on the mound this evening and he gave up 6 earned runs in 6 innings the last time he faced the Angels. Also, like Santiago, he has struggled for much of this season. He allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent start and that was the 8th time in 12 starts this season that Buchholz has allowed 4 earned runs or more. Buchholz again had command issues with his pitches in his start last week versus the Rangers. The over is 8-2 in Red Sox Saturday games this season. When Boston is a home fave of -150 to -175 this season the over has hit 80% of the time. The Angels loss yesterday was their fourth straight and they are 24-12 to the over the past three seasons combined when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. *10* OVER 10 in Boston |
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07-02-16 | Royals v. Phillies OVER 8 | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Philly Insider *8* OVER 7.5 or 8 in Philadelphia vs Kansas City @ 5:50 ET - When the Phillies wrapped up their recent road trip with 3 straight wins they were coming home with some significant momentum. They kept the roll going with a 4-3 win yesterday that stayed just under the total. I feel that is giving us great value with the over here and the fact this total has dropped to a 7.5 is giving even more value. The Phillies have now won four straight games and 6 of their last 8. Also, Philadelphia has been swinging the bats very well for the past 10 games as they have averaged 6.1 runs per game! They have not scored less than 3 runs in any of those 10 games and they'll scratch at least that against Danny Duffy of the Royals. The KC southpaw is off of a solid start but previously allowed at least 3 earned runs in 4 of his last 6 starts. The Kansas City left-hander completed less than 6 innings in 3 of those 4 outings. The other key to this play is the Royals having a big day at the plate after scoring just 3 runs last night. That should be no problem as they'll tee off against Aaron Nola who has struggled mightily over his last 4 starts. The Phillies right-hander has allowed a ridiculous 22 earned runs in the 13 innings that have spanned his last 4 starts. The over is 7-1 in Nola's last 8 starts and there have not been any unders in Duffy's last 3 starts. *8* OVER 7.5 or 8 in Philadelphia |
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07-02-16 | Rangers v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 5-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Earliest Cash *8* OVER 9.5 in Minnesota vs Texas @ 2:10 ET - Chi Chi Gonzalez gets the start for the Rangers and he had a 6.03 ERA from July onward last season. This season he has made one start since being called up from the minors and he got rocked for 5 earned runs on 10 hits in 5 innings of work against the Yankees last week. In the minors this season he was 3-6 with a 5.04 ERA and Gonzalez was getting hit at a .285 clip. Last season in the minors he got hit at a .280 clip. Getting out major league hitters is even tougher than AAA hitters! The Twins will counter with Tyler Duffey who is off of a strong start but whom previously gave up 36 earned runs in his last 35 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 7 starts. He was consistently bad too as he allowed at least 4 earned runs in every start and Duffey gave up at least 5 earned runs in 5 of the 7 starts. In other words, don't put too much weight into the one good start he just had because it was preceded by 7 straight bad ones. By the way, NONE of those 7 starts stayed under the total! The over is 28-12 (70%) this season in Twins home games and that is even after a rare low-scoring 3-2 loss in Minnesota last night. This afternoon, the Twins bats and Rangers bats quickly come back to life as they take on subpar pitching! *8* OVER 9.5 in Minnesota |
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07-01-16 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10 in Boston vs LA Angels @ 7:10 ET - Both of these clubs were off on Thursday. The Red Sox are off of a shutout loss on Wednesday at Tampa Bay. That is only the 3rd time this season that Boston has been shutout. After each of the first two, the BoSox next game resulted in an over. I expect another one here. The Red Sox should pound Jhoulys Chacin. The Angels right-hander was somewhat rejuvenated after arriving to the Angels from the Braves earlier this season. However, Chacin has certainly quickly reverted to his old form and that has seen him get pounded. In his last three starts Chacin has a 10.03 ERA and a 2.49 WHIP. None of his last 5 starts have resulted in unders and the Angels righty has given up 21 earned runs in the 22 innings spanning these 5 outings. Chacin has given up 9 earned runs on 15 hits in his last 9 innings against the Red Sox. Boston will have Steven Wright on the mound this evening and the knuckleballer certainly has put up some strong numbers this season. However, he gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings when he most recently faced the Angels and that was last July. Wright is coming off of a tough start at Texas where the Rangers got to him for 8 runs (3 earned) on 7 hits and a pair of walks in less than 5 innings of work. The Angels have gone over the total in 5 of their last 7 games and are averaging 10.6 hits per game in their last 8 games. The Red Sox were averaging 10.3 hits per game in their last 7 games before the ultra rare shutout at Tampa Bay Wednesday. The BoSox bounce back at home today and the Angels sticks stay hot and pound out double digits in hits yet again. The over is 11-5 the past three seasons when the Angels are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. The over is 24-11 the last three seasons when the Angels enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. The over is 35-23 in Boston's games against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The over is 26-15 in Red Sox games against teams with a losing record this season. *10* OVER 10 in Boston |
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07-01-16 | Reds v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 in Washington vs Cincinnati @ 6:05 ET - Washington laid a 13-4 beating on the Reds yesterday and there is no reason the high-scoring ways should not continue this evening. The Nationals will have Tanner Roark on the mound and he allowed 5 earned runs on 7 hits in just 3 innings of work when he faced the Reds about 4 weeks ago. In his prior start against Cincinnati he gave up 2 homers to the Reds. Roark comes into this start with some impressive numbers on the season but he has given up 33 hits in his last 30 and 1/3 innings and I feel "the fade" is on for the Nats right-hander. Roark is off of a strong start at Milwaukee but previously allowed 12 earned runs in his 23 prior innings. Anthony DeSclafani gets the start for the Reds Friday and he has a low ERA in his limited action as a starter so far this season. However, he has been fortunate as he has a 1.55 WHIP in his two road starts and is fortunate the damage against him (in terms of earned runs) has not been worse. Neither of his road starts stayed under the total and I don't expect this one to either. The Nationals have won 5 straight games and averaged 7.2 runs per game. Yesterday was the 8th time in their last 13 games that the Reds have scored at least 4 runs. There have only been 2 unders in Cincinnati's last 10 games. In Reds games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season the over is 18-9. The over is 22-12 in Cincy's road games this season. This is the Nationals 12th Friday game this season. So far they have had just 2 unders in their Friday games! Look for another "power surge" in DC this evening. *8* OVER 8.5 in Washington |
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07-01-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in Toronto vs Cleveland @ 1:05 ET - The Indians got the win at Toronto yesterday in a low-scoring 4-1 battle. Cleveland has now won 13 straight games and they have averaged 6.2 runs per game during this torrid hot streak. While I expect their lineup to continue to produce big runs today, I also expect the Blue Jays lineup to get back on track and that is why the play here is the over. The Jays, even after scoring only 1 run in yesterday's game, have averaged 6.6 runs per game in their last 18 games. Toronto could get the long ball going again today as the Indians Josh Tomlin has given up 8 homers in his last 4 starts! Tomlin gave up 6 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start at Toronto. The Blue Jays will have Marcus Stroman on the mound and he is struggling of late. In his last two starts Stroman has given up 11 earned runs in less than 9 innings of work! Also, he's been homer-prone as well with 6 dingers allowed in his last 6 games. The over is 6-2 in Stroman's home starts this season and the over is 10-2 in all of Tomlin's starts this season. Of Cleveland's 12 Friday games so far this season only 4 have resulted in an under. This total opened up at an 8.5 and the Blue Jays are 12-7 to the over in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. Even with the line moving to 9, there is great value with the over here as both teams have so much power in their lineups and both hurlers have been giving up too many round-trippers and, overall, far too many big hits! *8* OVER 9 in Toronto |
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