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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-30-16 | Cubs v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - A pair of solid hurlers with overall good numbers on the year is keeping this total lower than it would otherwise be given the following facts. The Cubs John Lackey has a 6.61 ERA in his last three start and the Mets Steven Matz also has a 6.61 ERA in his last three starts. Lackey has given up three homers in his last two starts and the wind is expected to be blowing out at Citi Field tonight. Though it is generally a pitcher-friendly venue, Citi Field will be a little friendlier than usual to the hitters tonight. Lackey particularly struggled at Miami in his most recent start and I look for him to again get hit hard here. The Mets Matz has allowed 22 hits in his last 3 starts spanning 16 and 1/3 innings. He also has given up a homer in each of his last two starts and did not record a single strikeout in his most recent outing. That is always an alarming stat as it shows that hitters aren't having any trouble seeing (and making contact with) his pitchers. The over is 4-2 in Matz's home starts this season and 2 of Lackey's last 3 road starts have gone over the total. The Cubs have not had a single under in any of their last 6 games. The Cubbies bats have been rejuvenated on this road trip as they averaged 9 runs per game at Cincy and have scored at least 5 runs in 5 of their last 6 games. In their 41 road games this season, the Cubs have had just 15 unders. In their 41 Thursday the games the past three seasons it has also been only 15 unders for the Cubs. Look for this one to easily get over the low total as the normally low-scoring Mets take advantage of catching Lackey at the right time while the Cubs also stay hot at the plate. *10* OVER in New York Mets |
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06-30-16 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 9 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota @ 2:10 ET - Yesterday's game totaled 15 runs and the White Sox red hot sticks are averaging nearly 6 runs per game over their last 7 games. The Twins are also functioning in the same range at the plate as they come into this afternoon game Thursday having averaged 5.7 runs per game in their last 10 games. With these two hurlers on the mound we certainly should not see a slowdown Thursday. Tommy Milone gets the start for the Twins and he had major issues with command of his pitches in his start last week. This was his first start since returning from AAA ball and in his last 3 starts at the MLB level he has compiled a 1.85 WHIP and is fortunate his ERA is not higher than it is. He'll be opposed by fellow southpaw Carlos Rodon of the White Sox. Though Rodon has some decent numbers this season he has also been "flirting with disaster" in many of his recent starts as he's been way too hittable. Rodon is getting hit at a .291 clip over his last 7 starts. As a road dog of +125 to +150, the over is 9-2 in Minnesota games this season. With yesterday's over, Minny is now 19-6 to the over in June games. Also, the over is now 21-9 this year in Twins games against teams with playing .500 ball or worse on the season. Look for more of the same this afternoon. *8* OVER 9 in Chicago White Sox |
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06-29-16 | Rangers v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Texas @ 7:05 ET - With their 7-1 win yesterday, the Rangers are now 13-3 in their last 16 games and have averaged 6 runs per game during this hot streak. The Yankees have cooled off a bit at the plate recently but are still averaging 10 hits per game in their last 10 games. Facing the Rangers Nick Martinez Wednesday should bring the Yanks bats right back to life after scoring just a single run yesterday. Martinez has struggled in both of his starts this month since moving into the rotation. He has more walks than strikeouts and also gave up 2 homers in his most recent start. Martinez has given up 8 earned runs in less than 13 innings of work spanning his last two starts against the Yankees. The Yanks got to him for 3 homers in those two outings. Masahiro Tanaka gets the start for the Yankees in this one. He allowed 4 earned runs on 9 hits and 3 walks (for a 2.00 WHIP) in the 6 innings he logged against the Rangers in his only career start against them. Tanaka comes into this home start having allowed 8 earned runs in the 12 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two home starts. In fact, Tanaka has a 5.74 ERA in his last 5 home starts so he's certainly been far from dominant at Yankee Stadium. The Rangers have recently had a lot of unders but that has had a lot to do with getting solid pitching. With Martinez on the mound tonight, that is unlikely to be the case and the Rangers sticks will remain hot as well. In other words, perfect ingredients for an over. The Yankees have had just 2 unders in their last 10 games. Prior to yesterday's defeat, the Yanks had averaged 5 runs per game in going 6-4 in their last 10 games. Look for the Yankees offense to get right back on track tonight. *10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees |
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06-29-16 | Astros v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Houston @ 3:35 ET - With yesterday's 7-1 win, the Astros have now won 9 of their last 10 games and they've averaged 6.5 runs per game during this hot streak. I don't see Jered Weaver being able to slow down the Astros red hot sticks. The veteran right-hander was long-known for excelling in his home starts but, after another rough effort Friday, Weaver has given up 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his last 7 home starts. Not surprisingly, the over is 5-2 in Weaver's last 7 starts. Weaver has allowed 9 earned runs in the less than 12 innings of work spanning his last two starts against Houston. Weaver also has given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts against the Astros. He will be opposed by Dallas Keuchel this afternoon. The southpaw has certainly been the victim of some bad breaks in some of his starts this season but there is no denying he was way too "hittable" in his most recent start as the Royals got to him for 4 earned runs on 11 hits in his 6 innings of work. The left-hander allowed 2 homers in that start and also allowed 2 homers in his most recent outing against the Angels in late May. Keuchel dominated at home last season but was not so dominant on the road last year. This season, he's been far from dominant away from home as Keuchel has a 5.89 ERA in road games in 2016. The fact he only had 2 strike-outs at Kansas City in his most recent start is also cause for concern. The over is 17-8 (68%) the last 3 seasons in Astros road games where they are a fave of -125 to -150. The Houston hot hitting continues here but the Angels sticks will respond after producing just 2 runs yesterday and that means an afternoon slugfest can be expected here. *10* OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels |
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06-29-16 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 7.5 | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 in Tampa Bay vs Boston @ 12:10 ET - David Price is off of a horrible outing for the Red Sox and would love nothing more to bounce back here. The problem for Price is that he's in the wrong place at the wrong time. Tampa Bay has given the Boston southpaw fits as Price has allowed 17 earned runs in less than 15 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts against the Rays. All 3 of those starts have come within the past year so the Tampa sticks are certainly very familiar with his offerings. The Rays are in bounce back mode as they were held to just 2 runs yesterday and they should get back on track against a familiar foes as the Tampa Bay lumber had been hot. The Rays averaged 8 runs per game on 15 hits per game in their 3 prior games leading into last night's ugly 8-2 loss. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Tampa's last 4 games and 6-1 in Boston's last 7 games. Against southpaws, the over is 12-6 in Tampa Bay games this season. Price is unlikely to be the only lefty struggling this afternoon. Matt Moore gets the start for the Rays and he is 3-5 with a 6.41 ERA in his 8 career starts against the Red Sox. Also, Moore is coming off of a rough performance at Baltimore in his most recent start. Look for more of the same for the Rays southpaw as he now faces a potent Red Sox lineup that is heating up again with an average of 6 runs per game in their last 7 games. The over is 21-12 in Boston's road games this season and 26-14 in Red Sox games against teams with a losing record this year. *8* OVER 7.5 in Tampa Bay |
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06-28-16 | Blue Jays v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 14-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado vs Toronto @ 8:40 ET - As of early Tuesday morning it appears the wind will be switching around this evening. Even though when the first pitch is made in this game the wind may not be blowing out it is likely that it will end up blowing out for much of this game. That said, I see a lot of value with another over in the dry, thin air at Coors Field tonight. With last night's 9-5 win, the Rockies have now seen 7 straight games go over the total. There is no reason not to expect another one tonight. Colorado crushed the Blue Jays bullpen last night and let's not forget that the Rockies bullpen has been one of the worst in the league this season. That is bad news for Colorado tonight because their starter, Eddie Butler, is unlikely to pitch deep into this game. Butler has a 10.42 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP in his home starts this season. The Rockies righty also has a 10.20 ERA and a 2.27 WHIP in his last 3 starts overall. Facing a Blue Jays lineup that has averaged 6.5 runs per game in their last 12 games isn't going to help matters for Butler! The Rockies will be facing J.A Happ of the Blue Jays tonight. The southpaw faced Colorado twice in the last two months of last season so they have some familiarity with him even though this is an inter-league match-up. The red-hot Rockies have averaged 8 runs per game in going 5-3 in their last 8 games. The over is 3-1 in Butler's 4 home starts this season and the over is 7-1 in the Rockies 8 inter-league games this season. Look for yet another wild one at Coors Field tonight. *10* OVER 12 in Colorado |
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06-28-16 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota @ 8:10 ET - Both these clubs were off yesterday. The Twins are 7-2 to the over after an off day so far this season. The last 3 seasons combined, the White Sox are 29-17 to the over after an off day. Both lineups will be rested an ready to go for this one Tuesday. By the way, the ChiSox are 8-3 to the over on Tuesdays so far this season. Minnesota has been an "over machine" this season and are an incredible 31-10 to the over in night games this year. Like the White Sox, Tuesdays have been conducive to plenty of runs too, 9-1 to the over this season on Tuesdays for the Twins. Minnesota is 18-5 to the over in June and also 18-5 to the over when off of a win. The over is 11-6 this season in Twins games against left-handed starters. The ChiSox will have lefty Jose Quintana on the mound and he allowed 3 homers in his most recent home start. He followed that up by allowing 8 earned runs on 15 hits and 7 walks in the 13 innings of work spanning his last two starts. The southpaw won't be the only starting pitcher struggling this evening as right-hander Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Twins. Gibson is 0-5 in his 7 starts this season and he has a 12.37 ERA in his two road starts this season. Even in his three most recent starts, all at home, he's been roughed up to the tune of a 6.00 ERA! He's facing a White Sox team that is 5-2 in their last 7 games and has averaged 6.2 runs per game in their last 5 games. The Twins have scored 6 runs or more in 5 of their last 8 games. *8* OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox |
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06-28-16 | Indians v. Braves OVER 7.5 | 5-3 | Win | 107 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 in Atlanta vs Cleveland @ 7:10 ET - On the surface this will look it might shape up to be a decent pitchers duel. Hence the low number posted on the total for this game. However, with each of these starting pitchers struggling a bit recently and with both clubs enjoying some recent solid success at the plate, the total is way too low and can be exploited here. The red-hot Indians come into this game having won 10 straight and have averaged 6.8 runs per game! They should have no trouble staying hot against the Braves Matt Wisler. The right-hander is 1-5 in home starts this season and he has a 5.19 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in his last 3 starts as he has been particularly hittable of late. Wisler also walked 4 while striking out just 1 in his most recent start. Even though the Indians Corey Kluber has a great reputation, he gave up 8 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent road start. Though he shut out the Rays in his most recent start (at home), he had allowed 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his 8 prior starts. Look for the Braves to give him some trouble here as Atlanta, prior to yesterday's defeat, had won 8 of their last 11 games and had scored 4 runs or more in 8 of the 11 games. The Atlanta bullpen has a 4.90 ERA at home this season. Tonight's game will be the 12th the Indians have had in inter-league action so far. Out of all this inter-league action Cleveland has had just 3 unders! *8* OVER 7.5 in Atlanta |
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06-28-16 | Marlins v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 in Detroit vs Miami @ 7:10 ET - Miami is 8-2 to the over this season (including 6-1 on the road) in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Marlins inter-league games have gone 7-2 to the over this year. The Tigers have gone 10-2 to the over in inter-league action so far this season. Also, Detroit enters this game on a 3-game losing streak and the over is 10-2 this season when the Tigers have lost 3 or more consecutive games. Detroit is 26-13 to the over this year in their games against teams with a winning record. Mike Pelfrey gets the start for the Tigers this evening and he has been getting hit hard and has a 7.17 ERA in his 7 home starts this season. 5 of those 7 Pelfrey starts in Detroit have gone over the total. Miami's Adam Conley has given up 32 hits in his last 22 innings away from home and I look for his road struggles to continue here as Detroit is hitting .278 at home this season which ranks them 6th out of the 30 MLB teams. Pelfrey is 1-9 with a 5.40 ERA in his career against the Marlins and Miami's Conley got absolutely crushed in his most recent road start with 6 runs (5 earned) on 11 hits in just 5 innings of work. Look for more of the same here. *8* OVER 9.5 in Detroit |
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06-27-16 | Blue Jays v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado vs Toronto @ 8:40 ET - Yesterday's Blue Jays game (at the White Sox) stayed under the total but the Jays had previously gone over the total in 5 of their last 7 road games. The Rockies game (versus Arizona) went over the total yesterday and that made it 6 straight overs in Colorado games. Now the Rockies are back into interleague action again and the over is 6-1 in their interleague games this season. Colorado will have Jon Gray on the mound and he walked 5 in just 4 innings in his most recent start. Gray allowed 4 earned runs in that outing and was diagnosed with a tired arm that forced him to exit early. Even though he's back on track for this start Monday, I do expect him to continue to show signs of fatigue. The Blue Jays hurler tonight also has an injury concern here as Marco Estrada has been having some discomfort in his back. Since he pitched in the National League for much of his career he's faced the Rockies a few times. He has allowed 11 earned runs on 19 hits (including 3 homers) in the less than 11 innings of work spanning his last two outings. Estrada comes into this start as the first pitcher ever to make 11 straight starts of 6+ innings with allowing 5 hits or less in each of the outings. Of course trying to keep that going at Coors Field is about the toughest test a hurler could have and I look for him to struggle again here (just like he did in his most recent start against the Rockies back in 2014). Though all 7 of his home starts have stayed under the total this season, Estrada's road starts have had mixed results in terms of the total while Gray's 5 home starts have yielded just 1 under. Look for the over to go to 22-13 in Rockies home games this season as the warm (and thin air) of Denver continues to lead to crazy slugfest results. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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06-26-16 | Dodgers v. Pirates OVER 6.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 6.5 in Pittsburgh vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - Of course the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw is arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball. But that is also why this total has dropped to a 6.5 as of early Sunday morning and that is helping to give us some great line value here with the over. The Pirates will have a number of hitters in their lineup tonight that have, surprisingly, enjoyed some success against Kershaw. This has played a role in the Dodgers ace left-hander allowing 7 earned runs on 16 hits in the 13 innings of work spanning his last two starts against the Pirates. Both of those starts occurred late last season so it is not as if those stats are ancient history either. Pittsburgh will be seeing him for the 3rd time in a span of 11 months. Look for the Pirates to again enjoy some surprising success against Kershaw. Of course another key to this play tonight is that Pittsburgh will have Chad Kuhl on the mound making his MLB debut. Certainly Kuhl has some impressive stats in the minors this season but stepping up to the bigs is always a big step! Additionally, the right-hander has the added pressure of knowing he's up against the Dodgers ace, he's in front of home fans, and the ESPN cameras will be rolling as this game gets the call as the Sunday night game this week. Add it all up and it's a pressure packed situation for the 23 year old hurler. He's facing a Dodgers team that will be hungry to bounce back after being held to 1 run yesterday. The Dodgers, before yesterday's loss, had previously won 8 of their past 10 games and averaged a solid 4.8 runs per game in the process. The Pirates have averaged 5.4 runs per game in their last 5 games and the over is 25-14 in their home games this season. Kershaw's starts in Pittsburgh have a history of going over the total...and I firmly believe this one continues that trend! *8* OVER 6.5 in Pittsburgh |
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06-26-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 12.5 | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play UNDER 12.5 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 4:10 ET - Yes ,it is hitter friendly Coors Field and yes these teams have been piling up runs in their meetings this season. However, both of the hurlers today are capable of shutting down the opposition. Colorado is hitting 28 points less against lefties than righties this season and they'll be facing southpaw Patrick Corbin whose team has gone 9-2 in his 11 career starts against the Rockies. The last time Corbin pitched at Coors Field he allowed just 2 earned runs in 6 and 1/3 innings on September 1st. As for Arizona, they are hitting 28 points less against righties than lefties and they'll be facing right-hander Chad Bettis who has allowed just 2 earned runs in each of his last two starts while striking out 13 and walking just 1. He's in top form right now with walks down and strikeouts up. He'll have plenty of confidence for this afternoon match-up with the Diamondbacks and the wind most likely will be blowing in from right field in this one. 3 of Corbin's last 4 starts have stayed under the total. Also, the under is 4-1 in Corbin's divisional starts this season. Only 51 of Arizona's 123 day games the past 2+ seasons have gone over the total. Only 3 of the Rockies 10 Sunday games so far this season have resulted in an over. Yesterday's Rockies win was their 35th this season. So far this season Colorado has won just 13 games the 34 times they are off of a win. With a big total to work with here and a pair of starting pitchers likely to work deep into the game and have success, I expect a rather easy totals winner on the short side of this one. *10* UNDER 12.5 in Colorado |
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06-26-16 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | 7-1 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 in New York Yankees vs Minnesota @ 1:05 ET - Minnesota's Tyler Duffey has been incredibly consistent over the past 5 weeks but in a bad way! He's allowed at least 4 earned runs in 7 straight starts. Incredibly, Duffey has allowed an average of 1 earned run PER INNING over this rough stretch with a 9.17 ERA in his last 7 starts. The Yankees should pound the right-hander as their biggest struggles this season have been with southpaws not right-handers. The Yanks will have their own struggling righty on the mound as Nathan Eovaldi gets this start. He has given up at least 4 earned runs in 4 straight starts. Eovaldi's ERA over this this rough patch is a 9.00 so, like Duffey, the New York right-hander is also going through a ridiculous stretch where he is allowing an average of 1 earned run PER INNING! The over was 18-3 in Twins games this month before yesterday's surprising low-scoring result. Yesterday's under also ended a 6-game over streak in Yankees games. Look for the high-scoring ways to quickly resume for these clubs today based on a very favorable pitching match-up for tons of offense here. Overs are on a 6-0 run in Duffey starts and 4-0 run in Eovaldi starts. *8* OVER 9.5 in New York Yankees |
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06-25-16 | Astros v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 13-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Kansas City vs Houston @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game got crazy right away in the top of the first inning. Error, infield hit, walk, grand slam...it basically had it all. While a repeat of such a huge first inning is unlikely here it absolutely should be another easy over on a warm night in Kansas City with the wind expected to be blowing out to left field at Kauffman Stadium. Though the Royals Chris Young has pitched better of late he is well known for having issues with the long ball and, before allowing just 1 in each of his last 2 starts, Young allowed 4 homers in an outing at Cleveland. The Astros are a power-hitting team and, as you would expect, that is the type of club that gives Young problems. The veteran righty has allowed 7 homers in his last 3 starts against Houston. Also, in Young's last two starts against the Astros he has given up 13 earned runs on 17 hits in the less than 8 innings of work spanning those two outings. He'll be opposed by Michael Fiers tonight. The Astros right-hander is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his two career starts against the Royals. Fiers has been solid at home for Houston this season but the Astros are 1-4 in his 5 road starts this season as he's been rocked for a 6.43 ERA away from home. 4 of those 5 Fiers road starts went over the total and the over is 6-2 in the Royals last 8 games after yesterday's easy over. When Houston is on the road and priced as a small fave of -100 to -125, the over is 8-3 this season. Look for the over to improve to 7-2 in the Royals last 9 games as KC also could get a boost with the return of Alex Gordon to the lineup today. Either way, yesterday's 25 hits is a sign of what should be expected throughout this weekend series. *10* OVER in Kansas City |
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06-25-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 4:10 ET - Both bullpens got crushed in yesterday's game and that could be a significant factor today as neither one of these starting pitchers has been an "innings-eater" this season. The Diamondbacks Miller has averaged 4.8 innings per start while the Rockies De La Rosa has averaged 4.3 innings per start. Miller is off of a rare solid start for Arizona but he faced a floundering Phillies team. Prior to that effort, Miller had given up 22 earned runs in his last 31 innings. Colorado's De La Rosa has been pitching better of late since he returned to the rotation but he allowed 3 homers in his last start and that's certainly a bad sign that he's reverting to his old form of leaving too many pitches in the wrong part of the zone. That is part of what has led to his ugly 8.57 ERA on the season. Also, though the wind is not expected to be a huge factor one way or the other today, there is a chance it will be switching around and blowing out during this game with warm afternoon conditions favoring an over as well. All 4 of De La Rosa's home starts have gone over the total this season and Arizona leads the majors in slugging percentage (.492) against left-handed pitching. The over is 20-11 in Dbacks games against teams with a losing record this season. With last night's game crushing it for 19 runs, the over is 12-6 in Rockies home games with a posted total of 11 or 11.5 runs this season. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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06-25-16 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 9 | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in New York Yankees vs Minnesota @ 1:05 ET - Yesterday's total ended up being a push but the Twins had a lefty on the mound and the Yankees have struggled with southpaws this season. Also, the Yanks had a tough righty on the mound as Tanaka went into yesterday's start having allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts. Today's game offers a much different edge in terms of the pitching match-up and it spells O-V-E-R. The Yankees will enjoy facing a right-hander and Santana has a 5.79 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, Santana has allowed 12 earned runs in less than 13 innings of work in his last two visits to the Bronx. New York also will have issues on the mound this afternoon as Pineda gets the start and he has allowed 8 earned runs in the 11 innings spanning his last two starts versus Minnesota. The New York right-hander is 3-7 with a 5.82 ERA on the season. The over is 8-3 in Pineda's starts this season and 8-2 in Santana's last 10 starts. The over is an incredible 17-3 in Minnesota's games this month. The over is 34-17 in Twins games against right-handed starters this season. With yesterday's push, the over remains on a 5-0 run in Yankees games and they add to that "over streak" today. *8* OVER 9 in New York Yankees |
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06-24-16 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Texas vs Boston @ 8:05 ET - The Red Sox had recently hit a lull with some surprisingly low-scoring games but yesterday's 8-7 win marked the 2nd straight "wild one" with the White Sox as the teams combined for 29 runs and 50 hits in the last 2 games of the series. Look for the Boston bats to stay hot as they head to Texas now. Even though David Price is on the mound for the BoSox tonight, another wild one should be expected. The Rangers have pounded left-handed pitching this season. Their .289 batting average against southpaws ranks them 1st in the majors. Price is 3-8 with a 5.14 ERA in his career outings against the Rangers so Texas certainly hasn't been one of his favorite places to visit. He's allowed at least 4 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 meetings with the Rangers. Texas is going to have a pitching concern of their own tonight as Nick Martinez certainly wasn't sharp against the Cardinals Saturday. The Rangers right-hander was unable to complete 5 innings as he allowed 8 baserunners in 4 and 1/3 innings while striking out just 1. He was fortunate the damage wasn't worse than the 3 earned runs he allowed. Last season Martinez had a 5.79 ERA and a .303 batting average against after the all star break and his first start shows he's carried those struggles right into this season. Even in the minors this season he was getting hit at a .292 clip. The over is 16-7 in Boston's games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. Included in that record is a 6-2 over mark when the Red Sox are on the road. The Rangers are 16-10 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *10* OVER in Texas |
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06-24-16 | Padres v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 13-4 | Win | 101 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 in Cincinnati vs San Diego @ 7:10 ET - San Diego is hitting .277 against left-handed pitching this season and the Padres have scored 109 runs versus southpaws so far this year. That ranks SD #1 in the National League currently. With their 7-4 win yesterday, San Diego has now won 5 of their last 8 games and they've averaged 6 runs per game during this stretch. I expect the Padres to enjoy success against Reds southpaw Cody Reed tonight. Though Reed struck out 9 at Houston in his MLB debut Saturday he did allow 4 earned runs in his 7 innings of work while giving up 2 homers. He now faces a lineup, unlike the Astros, that has thrived against left-handed pitching this season. Reed will be opposed by Colin Rea of the Padres. The San Diego right-hander is off of a strong start but previously gave up 9 earned runs in the less than 10 innings of work spanning his two prior outings. Overall, Rea has a 5.09 ERA on the season and the over is 9-4 in his starts this year. He's facing a Reds team that is 41-26 to the over this season and that has scored at least 4 runs in 7 of their last 10 games. Cincinnati has had a glaring weakness with its bullpen (6.01 ERA heading into yesterday's game) all season long and the over is 15-7 in Padres games against left-handed starters this season after they pounded out a win against another southpaw yesterday (John Lamb). *8* OVER in Cincinnati |
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06-23-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 8:40 ET - The Rockies lost 9-8 in the Bronx yesterday but that marked the 9th time in their last 12 games that Colorado has scored at least 5 runs. The Diamondbacks are also off of a loss yesterday and were held to just 2 runs at Toronto but Arizona had previously won 5 straight games and averaged 5 runs per game during the hot streak. The Dbacks should certainly have no problems with the offerings of Colorado's Eddie Butler. The right-hander had made three appearances in June, including two starts. Butler has been rocked for 24 hits and he has also walked six in the 13 and 1/3 innings spanning these three games. In his 3 home starts this season (and the wind is likely to be blowing out tonight at hitter-friendly Coors Field), Butler has a 10.29 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP. He'll be opposed by Arizona's Zack Greinke tonight and that is what is helping to keep this total lower than it should be (given that it's Coors Field and should be hitter-friendly weather conditions). Greinke has impressive numbers this season and so certainly many may expect him to dominate here. However, Coors Field is a unique challenge for pitchers and Greinke is no exception. He allowed 5 earned runs on 10 hits in 6 innings while striking out just 2 in his most recent visit here. Also, Greinke has faced the Rockies twice (both in Arizona) this season and he has allowed 9 earned runs on 17 hits (including 3 homers) in 11 innings of work. The Rockies hitters will be stepping up to the plate with confidence in this one and Colorado is hitting nearly .300 at home while averaging 6 runs per game. The over is 6-0 in Rockies Thursday games this season. The over is 18-11 in Diamondbacks games against teams with a losing record so far this season. *10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado |
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06-23-16 | Cubs v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Miami vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - The Marlins Wei-Yin Chen got rocked for 6 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work in his most recent start. That outing was against the Rockies and it was NOT at hitter-friendly Coors Field either. Chen's prior two starts saw him allow 7 home runs in his two outings prior to the debacle versus Colorado. The Marlins southpaw is simply in awful current form right now. Even though the Cubs have been scuffling a bit at the plate lately this is still one of the most dangerous lineups in the league and facing a struggling southpaw is likely to bring out the best in them. What is helping to keep this total lower than it should be (opened up at a 7.5) is the fact that Jon Lester is on the mound for the Cubs. However, the left-hander is off of a very fortunate start in his most recent outing as he allowed 11 base-runners (but only 3 runs) in his start against the Pirates. He now faces a Miami team that crushed him for 6 earned runs in 5 innings when they faced him last season. The over is 5-1 in Lester's road starts this season. Also, the over is on a 5-1 streak in Chen's starts. When the Cubs are a road favorite in a price range of -150 to -175 this season, the over has gone 7-1 (88%). Additionally, the over is 5-2 this season (and 25-14 the last 3 seasons) in Cubs Thursday games. The over is 45-33 in Marlins games against left-handed starters the past three seasons. Additionally, the over is 24-16 in Thursday games during this 3-year stretch. The Marlins rested Stanton and Prado in yesterday's early afternoon game but I expected those key sticks to be back in the lineup this evening. *10* OVER in Miami |
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06-23-16 | Giants v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 in Pittsburgh vs San Francisco @ 12:35 ET - These teams have combined for 32 runs in the past two games. Both were easy overs. Now, in an afternoon game where a light wind will be blowing out as well, look for a slugfest in the finale. Pirates starter Jon Niese has given up 5 homers in his last two starts. Giants starter Albert Suarez is off of a start where he allowed 3 homers in less than 5 innings at Tampa Bay. In road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs the over is 30-19 the past three years in Giants games. The over is 17-8 (68%) this season in San Francisco's day games. The Pirates are 17-6 to the over in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season and that includes 12-3 (80%) when those are home games! Pittsburgh is also 6-1 to the over on Thursdays this season and 16-8 (67%) to the over in day games. With yesterday's high-scoring loss, the Pirates are now 24-12 (67%) to the over in their home games this season. With the weather this afternoon in Pittsburgh coupled with a pair of hurlers giving up the long ball, the over is the way to go in this one. Look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Suarez starts this season while Niese continues to have trouble with too many fat pitches (17 homers in 14 starts this season). *8* OVER in Pittsburgh |
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06-22-16 | White Sox v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 107 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - Back to back 3-1 games to open up this 4-game series with a pair of easy unders. Look for the low-scoring trend to come to an abrupt end on Wednesday evening. The Red Sox are sending Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound and he is winless with an 8.59 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The struggling southpaw gave up 6 homers in those 3 starts even though he averaged under 5 innings per outing. While Boston will struggle to hold the ChiSox offense in check tonight, the Red Sox lineup should provide plenty of fireworks on their own. Yes, the BoSox have struggled the last few games at the plate but they are getting a second look at Jose Quintana after seeing him last month. The White Sox lefty has been an "under machine" this season but he has given up 4 homers in his last 4 starts. Also, in the month of June he has been hit at a .275 clip. On the season, right-handed hitters have hit Quintana 71 points higher than lefties and last season the margin of difference was 50 points. He will face plenty of right-handed lumber in the BoSox lineup tonight and I look for his recent struggles to resume. Before struggling the first two games of this series, Boston had reached double digits in hits in 6 of their last 9 games. The over is 15-7 this season in Red Sox games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and also 23-14 this season in their games against teams with a losing record. The over is 4-1 in White Sox road games this season with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *10* OVER 9.5 in Boston |
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06-22-16 | Diamondbacks v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 in Toronto vs Arizona @ 4:05 ET - J.A. Happ is off of a very strong start for Toronto but that came against his former team, Phillies, who have been floundering badly of late. In other words, it is important to keep in mind that his prior two starts saw Happ give up 10 earned runs in the 12 innings spanning those two outings. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Happ's last 3 starts. The over is also an incredible 9-2 in Robbie Ray's last 11 starts. In this battle of left-handers, Ray is getting the start for the Diamondbacks and has been an "over machine" as you can see from those numbers. Ray has lasted less than 5 and 2/3 innings in 8 of those 11 outings! Ironically, Ray's most recent start also came at Philadelphia. Again, with how bad the Phillies have been I don't put a lot of weight into that start. In his 4 prior road starts the Dbacks southpaw has given up 24 hits in 20 innings. Look for him to get hit hard here. Prior to being held to just two runs in yesterday's surprising defeat, the Blue Jays had averaged 7.4 runs per game in going 8-4 in their last 12 games. Toronto's offense should surely bounce back today while Arizona also stays hot at the plate. The Diamondbacks have averaged scoring 5 runs per victory during their current 8-2 winning stretch. The over is 7-4 in Dbacks interleague games this season. The over is 7-3 in the Blue Jays last 10 games overall. *8* OVER in Toronto |
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06-22-16 | Angels v. Astros OVER 8 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 in Houston vs Los Angeles Angels @ 2:10 ET - This total has dropped from an opener of an 8.5 and is offering great line value as a "contrarian play" on the over. I am well aware of the fact that the Angels Matt Shoemaker has been pitching very well but the Astros can do some "long ball" damage at home. Also, I certainly expect the Houston starter, Lance McCullers, to get pounded. He is fortunate to have a 4.24 ERA on the season as McCullers has a 1.69 WHIP. He gave up 2 homers in his last start against the Angels (in September) and Shoemaker comes into this having allowed 3 homers in his last 2 road starts. After yesterday's low-scoring match-up look for a wild one this afternoon. The Angels had averaged 5 runs per game in their last 9 games before scoring just 2 yesterday. The Astros are confident at the plate as they have now won 4 straight home games and averaged 6 runs per victory. The "walk off wins" are helping the confidence factor. The over is 18-12 in Angels games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. Also, the over is 29-19 this season in Angels games against right-handed starters. Shoemaker has a 4.59 ERA on the road this season and McCullers has the big WHIP overall that shows he's been fortunate to produce a low ERA. Both these guys come unraveled this afternoon. Grab the line value with the downward move on this total. *8* OVER in Houston |
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06-21-16 | Reds v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Texas vs Cincinnati @ 8:05 ET - The Rangers Colby Lewis is off of an incredible start where he had a perfect game into the 8th inning and a no-hitter into the 9th inning. Oftentimes when a pitcher like this (4.50 ERA and .289 BAA at home this season) is off of a phenomenal start, they quickly come crashing back down to reality. The fact is that Lewis is known for struggling at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park in Arlington. Last season he had a 5.07 ERA in his home starts. In 2014, Lewis went 3-9 with a 5.90 ERA and .315 BAA. Look for Lewis to again struggle tonight as he's back home off of a lengthy outing where he logged 109 pitches as he was going for the no-no. The over is 6-1 in the 7 home starts that Lewis has made this season. He'll be opposed by Anthony DeSclafani of the Reds. The Cincinnati right-hander struggled in what was just his 2nd start of the season. He's fortunate, to say the least, that he has a 2.08 ERA so far this season as he has a 2.31 WHIP in his 8 and 2/3 innings on the mound. DeSclafani has been hit a .389 clip in his limited action this season but the fact is he's been hit hard at the MLB level with a .282 BAA in his 226+ career innings. Even in the minors the young righty has struggled this year. At the AA and AAA level combined, DeSclafani gave up 11 earned runs in 17 innings of work. Amazingly, he allowed 6 homers in those 17 innings at the minor league level! The over is 3-1 this season when the Reds are off of a shutout loss and they lost 6-0 to Houston on Sunday. The over is 32-19 this season in Cincinnati's games against right-handed starters. As a home favorite in the -175 to -225 range the Rangers are on a long-term 115-76 run to the over. Look for the over to improve to 9-3 in Rangers Tuesday games this year with another wild one tonight. *10* OVER in Texas |
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06-21-16 | Rays v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 in Cleveland vs Tampa Bay @ 7:10 ET - There were 5 homers hit in yesterday's game and it finished with 11 runs in Cleveland's 7-4 win. Contrary to what many are likely expecting here, I am well known as a contrarian and I fully expect another rather high-scoring match-up tonight. A low total is being offered on today's game because of the long-term reputation of Corey Kluber of the Indians. This is a great value for over players today because Kluber is coming off of a rough start plus he has struggled often in his outings at home this season. Kluber got rocked at Kansas City in his start last week as he allowed 8 earned runs in only 5 innings of work. Now the Indians right-hander is back home where his last start was a successful one, also against the Royals. But prior to that strong outing at home, Kluber had given up at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his first 5 home starts this season. This is hardly "ace like" production and I look for Kluber to again struggle tonight as the Rays have gotten to him for 10 earned runs the last 3 times they've faced him. Tampa Bay will have pitching issues of their own tonight as the Rays hand the ball to Blake Snell for tonight's start. The young lefty didn't even make it out of the 4th inning in his start last week and yet it took him 92 pitches just to get to that point (1 out in the 4th inning when Snell exited). The 23 year old southpaw allowed 5 runs but was fortunate only 1 was earned as he gave up 8 hits in 3 and 1/3 innings. The over is 11-3 in Cleveland's home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The over is 20-9 in Tampa Bay's road games this season. Look for another game to reach double digits in runs tonight as Snell's struggles continue and Kluber has another rough outing which has been a problem for him all season long at home. *10* OVER 8 in Cleveland |
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06-21-16 | Rockies v. Yankees OVER 9 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in New York Yankees vs Colorado @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees and Rockies just met in Colorado last week and Ivan Nova faced Chad Bettis in one of those games. The fact these guys just faced each other (and Nova got hit particularly hard) means that the lineups are very familiar with the offerings they are going to see in the rematch. That's bad news for both hurlers because Nova has a 6.30 ERA in his last five starts and the 5 earned runs he allowed at Colorado last week marked the 2nd time in his last three starts that he has allowed 5 earned runs. The Rockies Chad Bettis has also been struggling and is unlikely to again enjoy the "moderate success" he had against the Yanks lineup last week as they get a quick "second look" at him this week. The win that Bettis notched versus the Yankees Wednesday is the only victory he has in the past five weeks. The Rockies right-hander has a 6.43 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP in his last three starts. In games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the over is 4-0 this season in Colorado games and 33-20 the past three seasons combined. The over is 4-1 in Rockies inter-league games this season. Look for the Yankees to go over the total for a 4th straight game here after their weekend series with the Twins wrapped up with three straight overs. *8* OVER in New York Yankees |
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06-20-16 | Mariners v. Tigers OVER 10 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10 in Detroit vs Seattle @ 7:10 ET - The Tigers Mike Pelfrey is 1-7 with a 5.30 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP on the season. He's been extremely hittable all season long and he's fortunate that his ERA isn't higher. The veteran right-hander now faces a Mariners team that will be ready to bounce back after being held to just 1 run despite 8 hits in yesterday's game. The M's have averaged 9.4 hits per game in their last 9 games. Before back to back unders 5 of the Mariners last 7 games had gone over the total and I look for that type of trend to resume here as the over is 4-2 in Pelfrey's home starts this season. The Tigers had an extremely disappointing effort at the plate in yesterday's 2-1 loss. However, 5 of Detroit's 6 prior games had gone over the total. The Tigers were averaging 6.4 runs per game in their last 8 games before yesterday's disappointing result. Detroit should be able to bounce back strong against the offerings of Nate Karns. The Mariners righty has a 6.75 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP in his last 3 starts as control has been an issue with far too many walks. Also, only 3 of Karns' last 12 starts have resulted in an under. The Tigers are happy to be back home and the over is 18-8 in their home games this season. Detroit is also 7-1 to the over in their Monday games this season. Against teams with a winning record, the Tigers are 23-10 to the over this season and, against right-handed starters, the Tigers have gone 31-17 to the over this season. Both lineups bounce back from disappointing efforts at the plate as each club resumes the hot hitting that had been on display in recent games. *10* OVER in Detroit |
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06-20-16 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies OVER 9 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in Philadelphia vs Arizona @ 1:05 ET - The Diamondbacks Shelby Miller is making his first MLB start since coming off the disabled list following a sprained index finger on his throwing hand. Though he pitched well in his rehab outings those were at the single A level in the minors. There is no comparison between the level of the hitters he faced there and the level of hitters he'll face today. At the MLB level, Miller is 1-6 with a 7.09 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP this season. The over is 3-1 in his road starts this season. The Dbacks righty will be opposed by a struggling Phillies right-hander. Jeremy Hellickson has been very hittable of late as he's gone winless in his last 3 starts while compiling a 7.41 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in those outings. Each of Hellickson's last three starts have gone over the total. The over is 13-5 in June games for the Phillies. The past two seasons the Phils have had 8 home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and only 2 of those 8 stayed under the total. The over is 7-1 in Diamondbacks Monday games this season and 28-12 the past three seasons combined. In their games against teams with a losing record this season, the over has gone 18-10 in Arizona's games. Look for the Dbacks to continue to hit the ball well this afternoon but the key to this over is that the Phillies sticks are finally able to get on track thanks to facing the very hittable Miller. *8* OVER in Philadelphia |
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06-19-16 | Angels v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Oakland vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:05 ET - Yesterday's game was 7-1 in the top of the 6th inning and the posted total was an 8.5 but the game stalled at that point and did not get the single run it needed to go over the total. That might help limit the market activity on today's total and help to keep it at a 9 but, either way, this is one match-up that should easily fly over the total. Eric Surkamp gets the start for the A's and he hasn't even made it out of the third inning in two of his last three starts. Also, the southpaw is struggling overall with more walks than strikeouts as a starter this season. Surkamp is winless in his 7 starts this season with an ugly 8.07 ERA that is worse (9.25 ERA) at home and that is showing no signs (13.03 ERA last 3 starts) of turning around. As Surkamp continues to head the wrong direction we also continue to see from the Angels Jered Weaver what we've seen with him for many years. That is that he struggles on the road. Through the years he's taken advantage of pitching his home starts at pitcher-friendly Anaheim but has struggled away from home. This season he has a 5.97 ERA on the road and, even though Oakland is generally considered a pitcher-friendly venue, the ball carries better in afternoon games and this is especially true when the wind is blowing out as it is expected to be at a good clip today. Each of Weaver's last 3 starts have gone over the total and the same is true of Surkamp's last 3 starts. Surkamp struggled against the Angels in his lone start against them in April of this year. He allowed 5 hits and 4 walks for 9 baserunners in a start that lasted less than 5 innings. Weaver has been rocked for 10 earned runs in less than 13 innings of work in his last two starts at Oakland. The A's had averaged nearly 6 runs per game in their last 6 games before struggling at the plate yesterday. Against Weaver, they will resume the hot hitting. As for the Angels, with their 7-1 win yesterday, they have averaged 6 runs per game in winning 3 of their last 4 games. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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06-19-16 | Tigers v. Royals OVER 9 | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in Kansas City vs Detroit @ 2:15 ET - The Tigers Jordan Zimmerman has an 8.49 ERA in his last two starts as "the fade" is on for him as he pitched "over his head" early this season. Zimmerman is in the wrong place at the wrong time to try and get back on track. The Royals are one of the hottest hitting teams in the league right now. With their 16-5 win yesterday, Kansas City has won 7 of their last 8 games and they've averaged 6.4 runs per game during this hot streak. The good news for Tigers fans though is that Detroit certainly should be able to do plenty of damage of their own at the plate Sunday afternoon. The Tigers will literally "tee off" against the Royals Chris Young as the big right-hander has allowed an amazing 10 homers in his last 3 starts! Young has a 9.25 ERA and 1.89 WHIP over this horrific three game stretch. Overall, this season has been a forgettable one thusfar for the veteran hurler as he's 1-6 with a 6.75 ERA on the year. The over is 5-1 in Detroit's last 6 games and none of Zimmerman's last 3 starts have resulted in an under. The over is also a perfect 4-0 in KC's last 4 games. The Tigers are a remarkable 17-6 to the over in day games this season and also 23-9 to the over this year in their games against teams with a winning record. The over is 3-1 this season in Royals games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the over has gone 4-2 the past three seasons combined in KC home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *8* OVER in Kansas City |
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06-19-16 | Yankees v. Twins OVER 9 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in Minnesota vs New York Yankees @ 2:10 ET - These teams combined for 13 runs in yesterday's game and today's match-up is poised to be another wild one. Nathan Eovaldi gets the start for the Yankees and he is struggling to get comfortable again with his splitter which has left him susceptible to getting pounded on the mound as he's turning to his fastball too often. The Yankees right-hander is winless with a 9.82 ERA and a 2.05 WHIP in his last three starts. He'll be opposed by another struggling right-hander today. Ervin Santana gets the start for the Twins and the veteran hurler has lost five straight decisions. Santana has an 0-3 record and 7.79 ERA with a 1.62 WHIP in his last three starts. Each of these starters have given up 5 homers in their last 3 starts. There were 5 homers in yesterday's game so there is reason to believe this will likely turn into another slugfest today. Not only do we have two struggling hurlers on the mound but both bullpens struggled in yesterday's game too. The last three starts for each of these hurlers all resulted in overs! The over is 13-3 in Twins games this month and 31-17 this season when facing a right-handed starter. Minny is also 7-2 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *8* OVER in Minnesota |
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06-19-16 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 8.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 in Cleveland vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:10 ET - The Indians will have plenty of confidence at the plate after erupting for 13 runs in yesterday's game. While certainly no pitcher in the league is struggling as badly as James Shields has been over this last 4 starts, the ChiSox hurler today is certainly likely to struggle. Carlos Rodon is winless with a 1.59 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Indians have been pounding the ball at home this season and, with yesterday's 13-2 win, are now 21-9 to the over in home games this year! Included in that record is a 10-2 mark in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The White Sox are a big road dog here and have gone 6-1 to the over this season when they are away from home and priced as an underdog in the +150 to +200 range. The ChiSox will be facing Carlos Carrasco of the Indians. Although he has good numbers overall, Carrasco has gone winless with a 4.58 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Indians right-hander has struggled against the White Sox with a 3-8 record and 5.90 ERA in his 13 career starts versus the ChiSox. *8* OVER in Cleveland |
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06-18-16 | Braves v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in New York Mets vs Atlanta @ 8:15 ET - This total has dropped from an 8 to a 7.5 as of gameday morning and this is offering substantial line value to the over. The Braves have their sticks going as, with yesterday's 5-1 win, Atlanta has averaged 6 runs per game in their last 5 games. Also, the Braves are averaging 10 hits per game in their last 12 games and they again reached double digits in hits last night with 11. Though the Mets Steven Matz has a solid ERA on the season, the southpaw has given up 24 hits in the 16 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. He's been ultra-hittable and will be facing an ultra-confident Braves lineup tonight. That should help get this one to be an easy over because Atlanta will have the struggling Aaron Blair on the mound. The Braves right-hander is winless in his 9 starts this season with a 7.59 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP. Blair has a 9.26 ERA on the road this season and a 9.45 ERA in his last 3 overall starts. The over is 4-1 in the 5 home starts that the Mets Steven Matz has made this season. The over is 8-2 this season in Mets Saturday games. The Braves are a huge dog here and that is noteworthy as the over is 7-2 long-term in Atlanta road games where they are a big dog in a price range of +225 to +250. Before yesterday's under, the Braves were on a 5-1 run to the over and the Mets were on a 4-1 run to the over. The Mets had averaged 10 hits per game in their last 7 games and they'll respond against the struggling Blair and a weak Braves bullpen after being held to just one run yesterday. *10* OVER in NY Mets |
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06-18-16 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 9 | 2-13 | Win | 102 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in Cleveland vs Chicago White Sox @ 6:10 ET - The numbers on James Shields are about as ugly as they can get. The newly acquired White Sox right-hander has been completely rocked in each of his first two starts with Chicago after also getting hammered in his final start as a member of the Padres. As a result, Shields is winless in his last three starts with some virtually unheard of ugly numbers - 21.41 ERA and a 3.62 WHIP! Shields is 2-8 on the season and each of his last three starts have resulted in overs. Danny Salazar certainly has been solid for the Indians but the Cleveland right-hander has had some issues with command of his pitches as he has walked 9 in his last two starts. The White Sox will be seeing him for the 4th time in the last 13 months and the ChiSox had averaged nearly 8 runs per game and 12 hits per game in their last 3 games before having a quiet night at the plate last night. Look for them to respond this evening and they'll need to because Shields is likely to get hammered again. Not only is he struggling badly but the Indians are 5-2 against the ChiSox this season and have averaged 5 runs per game against them. The over is 4-0 this season in White Sox road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 6-2 in Indians home games the last three seasons when they are priced as a big fave of -200 to -225. At home with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the past three seasons, the Tribe are 9-3 to the over. Overall, the Indians are an incredible 20-9-1 to the over in home games this season. *8* OVER in Cleveland |
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06-18-16 | Yankees v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 7-6 | Win | 105 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 in Minnesota vs New York Yankees @ 2:10 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Yankees Michael Pineda has got his slider back on track and that has helped lead the way to some better starts for him of late. However, his last two starts have come at home. Pineda is now back on the road where he is 1-4 this season with a 5.46 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. He has made 6 road starts this season and not a single one of them has resulted in an under. As for Ricky Nolasco, the Twins are 9-2-2 to the over in his 13 starts this season. He's winless in his 6 home starts this season and has compiled a 6.50 ERA in those outings. 5 of Nolasco's 6 home starts have gone over the total. In his most recent home start the veteran right-hander was rocked for 5 earned runs on 11 hits in less than 6 innings of work. The Twins righty gave up 6 earned runs in just 2 innings in his last start against the Yankees. Pineda gave up 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work in his last outing against the Twins! The over is a perfect 3-0 in Pineda's career starts against Minnesota. With the Twins ugly loss to the Yankees last night flying over the total, the over is now 11-1-1 in Minny's last 13 games overall. As a road fave of -125 to -150, the Yanks are 18-10 to the over. The over is 30-17 in Twins games against right-handed starters. There is also line value here with this total dropping from a 9 to an 8.5 this morning. *8* OVER in Minnesota |
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06-17-16 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston vs Seattle @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox stunk it up at the plate last night which is rare, especially at Fenway Park, and I look for Boston to respond in a big way tonight. Before scoring just one run in last night's game, the BoSox had averaged 7 runs on 11.6 hits per game in their last 5 games. Friday I expect the Red Sox to take advantage of facing a hurler they have dominated. Seattle will have Hisashi Iwakuma on the mound and the right-hander has found the Red Sox to be a nemesis. Iwakuma has gone winless in 4 career starts against the Mariners while compiling a 9.60 ERA and a 2.20 WHIP. The Seattle starter comes into this start having allowed 6 homers in his last 3 starts. The Mariners last 6 games in Boston have all gone over the total and I expect the Mariners to hit the ball very well tonight as well. The M's can tee off against Roenis Elias as the former Seattle hurler was called up from AAA Pawtucket to make this start. I expect the southpaw to feel the added pressure of having to face his former team in his first start back in the big leagues. In 2016 with Pawtucket and 2015 with Tacoma (both are AAA clubs), Elias has a combined 5.44 ERA. That is a lofty ERA considering it is minor league ball and I don't expect him to fare well at all against a team that certainly has great scouting reports on his repertoire of pitches. The Mariners come into this game off of a 6-4 win at Tampa Bay yesterday. Seattle will be facing a left-handed starter for a 3rd straight game which is a plus for the hitters. The M's have averaged about 5 runs per game in their last 9 games. The over is 5-2 this season in Mariners road games that have a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 15-6 in Red Sox games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. *10* OVER in Boston |
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06-17-16 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 9 | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in Baltimore vs Toronto @ 7:05 ET - Two red hot teams with red hot offenses square off in a divisional battle beginning on Friday. That's why I don't see either pitcher being able to slow down the momentum in game one of this series. The Blue Jays have won 7 of their last 9 games and have averaged 7.6 runs per game during this stretch. The Orioles have gone 10-5 in the month of June and the O's are averaging 6.2 runs per game this month! The Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez is unlikely to slow down the Baltimore lineup. In fact, the Jays righty just faced them Sunday and he allowed 10 hits (including 4 homers) in just 5 innings of work. The Orioles will have Mike Wright on the mound and he just faced Toronto on Saturday and he gave up 6 hits and walked 5 in just 5 innings of work and was fortunate the damage wasn't worse than the 4 earned runs he allowed in that one. Wright is now 0-3 with a 7.72 ERA and a ridiculous 2.14 WHIP in his 4 career starts against the Jays. Sanchez is 2-2 with a 7.45 ERA and equally ridiculous 2.17 WHIP in his 4 career starts against the Orioles. The over is 5-1 in the Blue Jays last 6 games. The over is 18-3 this season in Baltimore's games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. As a home dog in a price range of +125 to +150, the Orioles went 4-1 to the over the past two seasons. *8* OVER in Baltimore |
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06-16-16 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 or 10 in Boston vs Baltimore @ 7:10 ET - This total is likely to move to a 10 across the board but it has opened up at a 9.5 and the over is an incredible 18-2 in Orioles games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season and that includes a PERFECT 10-0 to the over in Baltimore's road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Even with this total expected to move to a 10, note that the over is 18-9 in O's games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the over is 15-5 (including 9-3 at home) in Red Sox games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. As a home fave in a range of -125 to -150, the over is 6-1 in Boston's games at Fenway Park this season. Against right-handed starters, the BoSox are 30-19 to the over. Based on the pitching match-up tonight, look for the over to improve to 6-1 in Boston's Thursday games this season. The Red Sox will have southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound and he just faced the Orioles at the end of May so Baltimore is getting a quick, second look at him. Rodriguez has given up 5 homers in his last two starts and been rocked for 9 earned runs in 10 and 1/3 innings while walking 7 and striking out only 4 in the two outings since he faced the O's. Right-hander Tyler Wilson gets the start for Baltimore and he also just matched up with Boston in late May so it's a quick second look for the ultra-dangerous Red Sox lineup. The right-hander has given up 22 hits in the 16 and 1/3 innings spanning his last three starts and Wilson has allowed 10 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work over his last two starts. The Red Sox are averaging 7 runs per game in their last five games and the Orioles are averaging 6.3 runs per game in the month of June. Look for another slugfest tonight. *8* OVER in Boston |
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06-16-16 | Reds v. Braves OVER 8 | 2-7 | Win | 101 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 in Atlanta vs Cincinnati @ 12:10 ET - The Reds Daniel Straily has pitched well this season and there is no denying that the Braves are certainly not an offensive juggernaut. However, the key here is that Atlanta does have some confidence building at the plate with some recent better performances and it helps being at home as well as the fact it will be hitter-friendly weather conditions on a warm afternoon in Atlanta Thursday. The Reds certainly should have no troubles at the plate as they take advantage of facing a struggling Matt Wisler. The Braves righty has a 9.60 ERA in his last 3 starts and he's allowed 3 homers in EACH of his last two starts. The Reds are 15-8 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs and Cincy also has gone 12-7 to the over in day games and 31-17 to the over in their games against right-handed starters. Look for the over to improve to 7-1 in Cincinnati's Thursday games this season. With last night's easy over, the over is now 8-1 in Atlanta's home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Last, but certainly not least, each of these teams has had issues with struggling bullpens this season. Look for a wild early afternoon slugfest in this one. *8* OVER in Atlanta |
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06-15-16 | Tigers v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Detroit @ 8:10 ET - For the 2nd straight night these two teams combined for 19 runs in their game. Game 3 of the series should result in another easy over. The Tigers have won 9 of their last 13 games and are averaging 6 runs per game in their last 14 games. The White Sox have gone 13-7 to the over in their last 20 games and should enjoy continued success at the plate against Mike Pelfrey. The Tigers right-hander has a 1-6 record and a 4.68 ERA this season but his ERA could easily be even higher. Pelfrey has been hit at a .322 clip so "big damage" is almost always just "a pitch away" for the veteran hurler. The way the White Sox are swinging the bats in this series, and considering it will be another hitter-friendly weather night in Chicago tonight, Pelfrey is likely to suffer the "big damage" in this one. The only good news for he and the Tigers is that they are catching Chris Sale at the right time. The big White Sox southpaw has been struggling of late. He's compiled a 6.57 ERA in his two starts in the month of June but the struggles go even further back. Looking at his last 4 starts, Sale has allowed 17 earned runs on 34 hits and 9 walks in his last 22 and 2/3 innings. That equates to a very "un-Sale like" 6.75 ERA and 1.90 WHIP as the lanky lefty has allowed nearly 2 baserunners per inning in his last 4 starts! Since these teams are divisional rivals, the Tigers are very familiar with Sale and enjoyed success against he and Pelfrey squared off earlier this month. That game ended with 11 runs scored and a similar result tonight should be expected. *10* OVER in Chicago White Sox |
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06-15-16 | Yankees v. Rockies OVER 12 | 3-6 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 12 in Colorado vs NY Yankees @ 3:10 ET - 23 runs scored in yesterday's game and the way these two starting pitchers have been throwing of late there is no reason we won't see another very high-scoring game this afternoon in Colorado. Of course afternoon games at Coors Field with warm temperatures and the wind blowing out are already the perfect recipe for an over. But what really adds the value here is the match-up of Ivan Nova and Chad Bettis on the hill. The Yankees Nova has been hit at a .310 clip on the road this season while compiling a 6.57 ERA away from home. The Yanks right-hander has a 5.76 ERA in his last 4 starts and has given up 8 homers in his 7 starts this season. Pitching at hitter-friendly Coors Field will not help Nova. The Rockies Bettis has struggled even more than Nova over his last 4 starts as the Colorado right-hander has an 11.57 ERA during this stretch. Bettis has allowed 6 homers in these 4 starts and the ball will again be carrying very well this afternoon at Coors Field. Bettis came into this season with a career ERA of 6.50 ERA at Coors Field where he's been hit at a .324 clip. Nothing has changed in 2016 as his struggles in the hitter-friendly venue continue with a 6.41 ERA and a .327 BAA. Neither bullpen enjoyed success in yesterday's game either. *8* OVER in Colorado |
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06-14-16 | Astros v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* UNDER 8.5 in St Louis vs Houston @ 8:15 ET - The Astros got shutout in their most recent game on Sunday and they simply are awful at the plate. Houston has now been held to an average of 2.7 runs per game in their last 6 games. All 6 of these contests stayed under the total. The Astros have been held to 7 hits or less in 5 of the 6 games. Even though the Cardinals Jaime Garcia is off of a tough outing in his most recent start, he previously had allowed 2 earned runs or less in 4 of his last 6 starts. The Astros have been horrible at the plate against southpaws and that has led to a 5-12 record in games against left-handed starters this season. The under is 4-1 in Garcia's home starts this season and also 5-2 in Doug Fister's road starts for Houston this season. Fister has been the Astros most consistent starter this season and the Cardinals haven't faced him in over a year. By the way, the Astros haven't faced Garcia since the 2012 season. Inter-league match-ups often tend to give the pitchers and edge due to the lack of familiarity the hitters have with them. The under is 19-12 this season in Astros games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The under is 28-15 in Houston games when they are a road dog of +125 to +150. Cardinals inter-league games on a 26-14 run to the under. Also, the Cards are 39-20 to the under in June games the past 2+ seasons. Fister has had quality starts in 9 of his last 10. I expect another one here and I expect the Astros struggles at the plate to continue against Garcia. *8* UNDER in St Louis |
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06-14-16 | Phillies v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 3-11 | Win | 107 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in Toronto vs Philadelphia @ 12:35 ET - The Phillies Zach Eflin makes his MLB debut this afternoon. Though he certainly has pitched very well at the AAA level this season, his prior minor league numbers showed a guy that pitched to contact and wasn't overly dominant. With that said, I don't think he's completely ready to just come in and dominate at the MLB level. This is especially true today as he comes in and faces a powerful Blue Jays lineup that had been red hot prior to getting shutout by Jared Eickhoff yesterday. The Jays had won 4 of their 5 prior games and had averaged 7.4 runs per game during this hot streak. The issue for Toronto today is they send a struggling Marcus Stroman to the mound. The right-hander has been rocked in going winless in his last three starts with a 9.37 ERA and a 2.14 WHIP. The Phillies aren't known for their hitting prowess but, with yesterday's 7-0 win, they have now averaged 4.2 runs per game and 8 of their last 9 games prior to Monday had gone over the total. The Phils are certainly hitting the ball better in June than they were earlier this season. Couple that with Stroman's struggles and the fact that the Phils have a 22 year old rookie on the mound and you have the makings of an easy over this afternoon. *8* OVER in Toronto |
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06-13-16 | Indians v. Royals OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 8 in Kansas City vs Cleveland @ 8:15 ET - Some low run totals recently for Kansas City is hiding the fact that the Royals have averaged 10.2 hits per game in their last 5 games. Also, they faced Carlos Carrasco in his first start off of the disabled list and the Royals got to him for 9 hits in a start where the Indians right-hander was fortunate that he only allowed 3 earned runs. In his next start, Carrasco gave up 4 earned runs at pitcher-friendly Seattle and the Mariners got to him for two homers. This is just his third start since coming off of the DL and he's giving the Royals lineup a quick "second look" so this is likely to be a tough start for him. Kansas City is also likely to see their starting hurler struggle tonight as Edinson Volquez gets the start. The Royals right-hander will be facing the Indians for the third time already this season. In 10 and 2/3 innings versus Cleveland, Volquez has given up 10 earned runs on 14 hits. In each of the starts, he has allowed two home runs plus walked four batters. Volquez is an ugly 2-6 with an 8.12 ERA in his career against the Indians. He is winless in his last three overall starts entering this outing and he has compiled a 6.35 ERA in these games. The Indians are 9-3 in their last 12 games and have averaged nearly 6 runs per game in the 9 victories. Cleveland is 14-8 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Kansas City is 4-2 to the over in Monday games this season and the Royals are 24-16 to the over on Mondays the past three seasons combined. *10* OVER in Kansas City |
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06-13-16 | Reds v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs in Atlanta vs Cincinnati @ 7:10 ET - The Reds are happy to be done facing A's pitching as Cincinnati struggled to score runs in that series. They catch a "break" now as they get to face Aaron Blair and the Braves struggling bullpen. Blair is 0-4 on the season with a 7.13 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP. He gave up 3 homers in his most recent home start and it will be a hitter-friendly night in Atlanta with the ball carrying well. The Reds will have some pitching concerns of their own tonight as they hand the ball to Daniel Wright. The right-hander is making just his 2nd start and he struggled in his first outing at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Now Wright has to try and stay out of trouble at hitter-friendly Turner Field and it is unlikely to go well. With yesterday's loss to the Cubs totaling 15 runs, the Braves are now 6-1 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Reds are 16-9 to the over in road games this season and that includes a solid 4-1 to the over in road games where they are a road dog in a price range of +100 to +125. Against right-handers Cincinnati has gone 29-16 to the over. I'll test the 6-1 Braves angle and 4-1 Reds angle for a combined 10-2 (83%) trend in this one. *8* OVER 8.5 in Atlanta |
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06-12-16 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 in San Francisco vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:30 ET - The Giants didn't get much of anything going in yesterday's game until the bottom of the 10th when they rallied to tie the game and then win it, courtesy of 4 straight hits. Coming off of a dramatic late win like that, I look for the San Francisco bats to build off that performance. As for the Dodgers, they are certainly frustrated about losing last night's game but the lineup finally got things going with 11 hits in yesterday's game. Facing Jake Peavy should help the Dodgers lineup to build off of yesterday's performance. I am well aware that the Giants right-hander has great career numbers against the Dodgers. However, he has allowed 4 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work in 2 of his last 3 starts against LA. Peavy also gave up 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his start against the Cardinals earlier this week. He has a 2-6 record and a 6.41 ERA on the season and the veteran is simply not the same pitcher he once was. Peavy will be matched up with Julio Urias who will be making just his 4th start of the season. The southpaw will be facing a Giants team that has hit .271 in their games against left-handed starters this season. Urias is winless in his first three starts this season and got crushed in both road outings to the tune of a 9.39 ERA away from home. Urias is only 19 years old and he's been crushed by right-handed hitters at the MLB level as they've hit .378 against him. That's bad news for what is to come tonight and, even though AT & T Park is a pitcher-friendly park, the wind will be blowing out tonight and I expect both of these hurlers to struggle badly in this one. The over is 5-2 in Dodgers games this season where they are a road dog of +100 to +125. The over is 13-8 in Giants games against teams with a winning record this season. *10* OVER in San Francisco |
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06-12-16 | Astros v. Rays OVER 8 | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 in Tampa Bay vs Houston @ 1:10 ET - After opening up at an 8.5 this total dropped to an 8 and the over is available at plus money as well. I am not surprised at the value being offered here as each of the first two games have managed to stay under the total. That is helping to disguise the fact that these teams combined for 4 homers in yesterday's game and today's match-up is conducive to more runs with plenty of homers likely again. The Rays Matt Moore has allowed 8 homers in his last 5 starts. The Astros Dallas Keuchel has given up 7 homers in his last 4 road starts! Overall, both southpaws are struggling. The Rays are 4-8 in Moore's starts this season and he's compiled a 5.55 ERA in those outings. The Astros are 4-9 in Keuchel's starts this year and he's compiled a 5.44 ERA in those outings. Tampa Bay recorded an under in Moore's last start but that was the first under in a Moore start since all the way back in April. As for Keuchel, 5 of his 8 road starts this season have gone over the total. The over is 8-3 in Astros road games with a money line of -100 to -125 this season. The over is 9-6 in Houston's games against left-handed starters this season and the over is 10-5 in Tampa's games against southpaws this year. *8* OVER in Tampa Bay |
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06-11-16 | Cardinals v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 8 in Pittsburgh vs St Louis @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game certainly had no business going over the total as some late runs changed the complexion of the game and then it went over the total thanks to a 6-run 12th inning from the Cardinals. I had the Cards yesterday and certainly was not happy when they allowed the tying run in the bottom of the 9th. All's well that ends well however and today I expect the big bats to show up well before a 12th inning! The Cardinals have admittedly struggled against the Pirates Francisco Liriano this season. However, the Pittsburgh southpaw has been rocked in each of his last two starts so he enters this game in poor current form. Liriano has given up 12 runs (11 earned) on 16 hits (including 3 homers) and 8 walks in his last 2 starts which have spanned only 9 and 1/3 innings. Liriano continues to struggle with command as he has walked 13 in the 15 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The Cardinals have drawn nearly 4 walks per game on the road this season where their .346 on base percentage ranks them 2nd out of all 30 MLB teams. They'll be patient at the plate today and frustrate Liriano. The Pirates lefty will be opposed by Carlos Martinez of the Cardinals today and the over is 8-2-1 in his 11 starts this season. The Cards right-hander is just 2-3 with a 4.89 ERA in his career starts against Pittsburgh and he has allowed 19 hits in his last 16 innings versus the Pirates. The over is a PERFECT 8-0 this season in Cardinals Saturday games. Also, when off of a win, St Louis has gone 22-10 to the over this year. The over is 16-3 in Pirates games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season and that includes 11-1 in home games! Pittsburgh is also 19-9 to the over this season when off of a loss. The Pirates and Cards will also both benefit from the wind blowing out to left field on a warm evening in Pennsylvania tonight. *10* OVER in Pittsburgh |
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06-11-16 | Mets v. Brewers OVER 9.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 in Milwaukee vs New York Mets @ 4:10 ET - The Brewers are saying the best way for Wily Peralta to get past his struggles is to work through them by staying in the rotation. For over players this is a dream come true because the over is 9-3 in all of his starts this season including a PERFECT 6-0 at home where Peralta has an 8.19 ERA and a 2.09 WHIP. In his last two starts against the Mets Peralta has allowed 8 earned runs in less than 11 innings of work. He'll be opposed by Logan Verrett today who is making another "spot start" for the Mets. In his most recent start Verrett was rocked for 7 earned runs on 10 hits and 3 walks (while striking out none) in less than 3 innings of work against the Rockies. Granted that game was at Colorado but Milwaukee is known to be a rather hitter-friendly venue as well. The Brewers got shut down by Matt Harvey yesterday but they previously had notched at least 9 hits in 5 of their last 7 games and should have a "break out game" at the plate today as they face a pitcher that is not a regular starter. As a home dog of +100 to +125, the Brewers are on a 26-12 run to the over. Look for the over to improve to an incredible 9-1 in Milwaukee's Saturday games this season. Ironically, the Mets also have been an over team on Saturdays with a 7-2 mark this season and a 40-22 mark the last three seasons combined. Additionally, when New York enters a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more this season, the over has gone 7-2 this season and 38-22 the last three seasons combined. Look for another over here! *8* OVER in Milwaukee |
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06-11-16 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado vs San Diego @ 4:10 ET - With temperatures expected to be in the low 90s and the wind expected to be blowing out to left field at a good clip, this has the makings of a pitchers' nightmare in this afternoon match-up in the thin air of Colorado. The Rockies will send Tyler Chatwood to the mound and he has a tremendous home/road dichotomy. Colorado has gone a perfect 6-0 (and he has pitched well) in his road starts. But, when Chatwood is at home, the Rockies have gone 2-4 and he's been rocked to the tune of a 5.30 ERA and 6 homers allowed in 6 starts. Chatwood is facing a Padres lineup that has been swinging the bats quite well. The over is 9-4-1 in San Diego's last 14 games and the Padres have averaged 6 runs per game during this stretch. There is no doubt the Rockies should be able to pound the ball as well this afternoon. Colorado will be able to "tee off" against newly acquired Erik Johnson. He's allowed 5 homers in his 2 big league starts this season and the Padres right-hander has compiled a 6.94 ERA in those outings. In his only career start at hitter-friendly Coors Field Johnson gave up 4 earned runs on 9 hits in less than 6 innings of work. The outcome on a hot afternoon with the wind blowing out is likely to be much worse than that. Look for the over to improve to 7-3 in San Diego's Saturday games this season and to 17-10 in Rockies home games this season. This is not the venue where Johnson would have chosen to make his Padres debut. Rockies pen struggled yesterday too and the Padres starter had to exit after retiring just one batter yesterday. Both pens now will get even more work today too! *10* OVER in Colorado |
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06-11-16 | Red Sox v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 in Minnesota vs Boston @ 2:10 ET - A very warm afternoon expected in Minnesota Saturday. With the way the Red Sox were swinging the bats last night, that is bad news for the Twins. The "wild card" here though is that the #1 offense in all of baseball is unlikely to be the only lineup crushing the ball this afternoon. Unlike last night's game (an 8-1 loss for Minnesota), the Twins should be able to match the Red Sox run for run in this one. That's because they'll face Eduardo Rodriguez. The Boston southpaw is making just his 3rd start of the season and he got crushed for 4 homers in his most recent start plus he had 3 walks while notching 0 strikeouts in that outing. Rodriguez got knocked out of the start prior to completing 6 innings. He'll be opposed by Kyle Gibson this afternoon. The Twins right-hander hasn't started in the majors since late April as he's been out with right shoulder strain. He was rehabbing in the minors. Though he had a strong start at Rochester (AAA) in his most recent outing, Gibson was far from dominant in his minor league outings as he was hit a .281 clip in his 3 starts down there and that included two at the A level! In the bigs this season he's winless with a 6.10 ERA and facing the Red Sox in his first start back is certainly not ideal as Boston is hitting .291 with a .484 slugging percentage this season! The over is 13-5 in Red Sox games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 24-11 L3 seasons combined in Twins games where they are a home dog of +125 to +150. The over is also 6-2 this season in Minnesota home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over was on a 13-3 run in Twins games before yesterday's push. There will be no push Saturday! *8* OVER in Minnesota |
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06-11-16 | Phillies v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 in Washington vs Philadelphia @ 12:05 ET - 5 homers were hit in last night's game. This is an afternoon game and the wind will be blowing out toward right field on a rather dry afternoon by Washington D.C. standards. That said, I expect the ball to carry very well. Both Tanner Roark of the Nationals and Aaron Nola of the Phillies have some good numbers on the season. However, Roark will be facing the Phillies for third time already this season and Nola is facing the Nationals for the fourth time already this season. That helps the hitters when they are seeing a lot of a pitcher. Additionally, Roark got rocked for 5 earned runs on 7 hits in only 3 innings of work in his most recent start. Nola has given up 20 hits in the 18 innings spanning his last 3 starts so he's starting to get a little "touched up" and that includes allowing 2 homers to the Nats when he most recently faced them. The over is 7-2 in the Phils last 9 games. The over is 12-5-1 in the Nationals last 18 games. After 15 runs were scored in yesterday's game, I'll gladly take advantage of the low posted total on this one as both lineups will be stepping to the plate with plenty of confidence on a hitter-friendly afternoon in D.C. *8* OVER in Washington |
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06-10-16 | Astros v. Rays OVER 7.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 in Tampa Bay vs Houston @ 7:10 ET - This undoubtedly is a contrarian play. The total dropped from an 8 to a 7.5 as most will like the under in this match-up. I like the added value now of 8 being a "win number" for us. The Rays are 20-7-1 to the over in their last 28 games but many people still don't see them as an "over" team. Certainly I respect the Rays Matt Andriese who has had a great start to this season. What I liked about "fading" him here is that Andriese has given up 21 hits in the 18 innings spanning his last 3 starts and certainly he has not been nearly as effective recently as he was early this season. The Astros have Lance McCullers on the mound and the right-hander is 3-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his last 3 starts but that is also a deceiving presentation of the way McCullers has been throwing. The Houston righty has allowed 14 hits in the 12 inning spanning his last two starts. Also, McCullers has walked 13 batters in the 17 innings spanning his last three starts. The righty has a 7.65 ERA in his two road starts this season and I look for him to struggle against the Rays. The over is 12-5 in Astros games against teams with a losing record this season. Also, the over is 8-3 this season when Houston is on the road with a money line of -100 to -125. *8* OVER in Tampa Bay |
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06-10-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 101 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* UNDER 8.5 in Toronto vs Baltimore @ 7:05 ET - Not only is the Blue Jays Marco Estrada off of a game where he carried a no-hitter into the 8th inning, it also ended up being the 8th straight start in which he has allowed 5 hits or less. Not surprisingly, Estrada leads the AL with a .167 opponents batting average so far this season! Yesterday's match-up between these clubs went over the total but, prior to that the Orioles had been held to 8 hits or less in 7 of their last 11 games! As for the Blue Jays, yesterday's defeat was their 4th in their past 6 games and the Jays have averaged only 5.5 hits per game during this stretch. Toronto will be facing Kevin Gausman of the Orioles and he is coming off of a stellar start versus the Yankees in his last outing. Â On the season Gausman is winless but yet he's compiled a strong 3.52 ERA in his 9 starts this season. The under is 6-3 in Gausman's 9 starts this season and 9-2 in Estrada's 11 starts this season. Estrada has a 3.07 ERA in his career outings versus the Orioles while Gausman has a 3.00 ERA in his career against the Blue Jays. The under is 13-7 in O's divisional games this season. The under is 23-12 in divisional games for the Jays this season! Look for more of the same tonight as the Baltimore bullpen has a 1.96 ERA on the road this season and the Blue Jays will be able to use their elite arms out of the pen tonight because not much bullpen should be needed. Estrada has averaged nearly 8 innings per start in his last 4 starts. *8* UNDER in Toronto |
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06-10-16 | Tigers v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in New York Yankees vs Detroit @ 7:05 ET - Even though C.C. Sabathia of the Yankees has been pitching quite well, the Tigers have the firepower to give him some trouble here. Detroit has averaged 6 runs per game in their last 9 games. Sabathia has struggled (and was unable to complete 5 innings) in two of his three home starts this season. The Yanks southpaw remains winless in home starts this season. The Tigers will have Mike Pelfrey on the mound and the veteran right-hander has been fortunate with his road ERA - to say the least! Pelfrey has a 3.81 ERA away from home this season despite producing a 1.92 in his five road starts! Pelfrey is winless on the road but, as you can see from that WHIP, he's been fortunate the damage hasn't been worse. Look for the Yankees to crush him as Pelfrey is 2-4 with a 5.68 ERA in his 7 career starts against the Yankees and 6 of the 7 games went over the total. The Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 games and have averaged 6 runs per game during this hot streak. The Tigers, as a road dog of +125 to +175, have gone 10-5 to the over this season. That record in that price range is a solid 35-20 to the over the past three seasons combined. Coincidentally, the over is also 35-20 in all Tigers games this season. With a struggling Pelfrey on the mound, look for that season record on overs to add another easy W tonight. *10* OVER in New York Yankees |
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06-09-16 | Angels v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:05 ET - There were 7 homers in last night's game and I look for more of the same this evening. It will be another "hitter-friendly" night at Yankee Stadium and the Bronx Bombers have been heating up. The Yankees are averaging 6 runs and 11.4 hits per game in their last 7 games. This is a stretch that has seen the Yanks go 5-2 including winning 3 straight. The Yankees should have no trouble staying hot against Jhoulys Chacin who allowed 6 hits and walked 4 while striking out just 1 in his most recent start - an outing that lasted only 5 innings. Chacin has a 4.85 ERA on the road this season and has never made a start at Yankee Stadium in his career. It can be an intimidating venue and Chacin has certainly shown he's vulnerable to instability in highly charged situations. Emotions will be high the Angels right-hander here after struggling so badly in his most recent start and now facing a red hot Yankees lineup. The good news for Angels fans is that Chacin should at least get plenty of run support in this one. That's because he'll be opposed by the Yankees Ivan Nova. The Yanks right-hander has been struggling badly with a 1-2 mark and 6.27 ERA in his last 3 starts. Nova has allowed 4 homers in these 3 games and, by the way, all 7 of the homers Chacin has allowed this season have come in his 7 road starts! As for Nova, he has also been hit hard by the Angels in his career starts against them. Nova has a 5.19 ERA in his career against the Angels and 5 of the 7 games went over the total. The past three seasons, when the Angels enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more, the over is 19-10. Also, when off of game where they allowed 10 runs or more, the over has gone 11-4. The Yankees, in 10 games this season as a home favorite of -125 to -150, have had only 3 unders. *10* OVER in NY Yankees |
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06-09-16 | Pirates v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11.5 runs in Colorado vs Pittsburgh @ 5:10 ET - Of course Coors Field is known for very light air but, based on the weather conditions today and the fact that this game starts at 3 PM local time, the ball should be carrying extremely well in Denver Thursday. Warm temperatures, light winds, ultra dry air, clear skies, it is set up to be a hitters paradise in Colorado today. Of course 11.5 is a big number but don't let that scare you away. There should be scoring early and often in a situation like this. It is a makeup game so Pittsburgh flew in just for this game. The Rockies are happy to be beginning a homestand and will be facing a pitcher, Jeff Locke, who had a solid start at Colorado earlier this season but that was on a cool evening in April. Conditions will be much different today and Locke allowed 10 earned runs on 18 hits in 12 and 1/3 innings in his two prior starts at Colorado. The over is an incredible 9-2 in Locke's 11 starts this season. He'll be opposed by Chad Bettis and he is 0-3 with an 11.47 ERA and a 2.40 WHIP in his last 3 starts as he's been getting absolutely rocked in recent outings. Bettis, despite allowing 4 earned runs on 10 hits in only 5 innings of work, saw his last start stay under the total but previously only one under had been recorded in his last six starts. The over is 17-5 in Pittsburgh's games against teams with a losing record this season. The over is also 15-7 in Pirates day games this season and the over is 17-9 when they are off of a loss. The over is 10-5 in Rockies home games with a posted total of 11 or 11.5 runs this season. Interestingly the over is 5-0 in Colorado's Thursday games this season and the Pirates are 4-1 to the over on Thursdays! This combined 9-1 (90%) trend is tested here. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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06-09-16 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 runs in Texas vs Houston @ 2:05 ET - Despite 10 hits in yesterday's game, the Rangers were held to just 1 run. Look for Texas to respond against the Astros Colin McHugh today after their loss yesterday ended an 8-0 run for the Rangers in the season series this year. McHugh has given up 3 homers in his last 2 starts and it will be a warm and dry afternoon @ Globe Life Park in Arlington. The ball should be carrying very well and, other than a strong start at Arizona two starts back, McHugh generally doesn't pitch deep into games and he often struggles. Other than the complete game against the Diamondbacks, his other 11 starts this season have seen McHugh average only 5.3 innings per start. He's allowed 27 hits in his last 16 and 1/3 innings against the Rangers. Also, McHugh has given up 9 earned runs in his last 10 and 1/3 innings versus Texas. The Rangers will have some pitching issues of their own in this one. Martin Perez gets the start for Texas and, though he has good career numbers against Houston, the Astros have gotten to him for 20 hits in his last 18 innings against them. In other words, the Astros have not had trouble hitting Perez and he comes into this start having allowed 16 hits in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts. The over is 4-1 in McHugh's road starts this season. The over is 11-6 in Astros day games this season and 9-5 in their games against left-handed starters. The over is 15-9 in Rangers home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *8* OVER in Texas |
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06-08-16 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 9 in Texas vs Houston @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday's game was a pitchers duel between Dallas Keuchel and Cole Hamels but I expect today's game to play out much differently based on this pitching match-up. The Astros Doug Fister has a 4.91 ERA in his career starts against Texas. The big right-hander has allowed 21 hits in the 19 innings spanning his last 3 road outings and has been fortunate the "damage" has not been worse in those outings. Fister also walked 4 in his most recent road start. In a hitter-friendly venue tonight where the ball carries very well, both he and the Rangers Yu Darvish are likely to struggle. The Texas right-hander will be making his first start on normal rest (4 days between starts) since returning from Tommy John surgery. Darvish pitched very well in his first start back but that was against an NL foe not use to facing him. In his 2nd start he faced an AL opponent and was hit harder. Tonight he faces a team that truly has been a nemesis for him. In his last two starts against the Astros, Darvish has been rocked for 12 runs (11 earned) on 19 hits in just 10 innings of work. Look for more struggles today! Prior to yesterday's under, the Astros were on a 7-2 run to the over and the Rangers were on a 6-1 run to the over. Houston is 20-9 to the over in road games this season including 6-1 to the over in those with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Rangers are 15-8 to the over in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs so far this season. *10* OVER in Texas |
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06-08-16 | Angels v. Yankees OVER 9 | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 or 9.5 in NY Yankees vs LA Angels @ 7:05 ET - Yesterday's game finished with 9 runs and came up just short of going over the total despite having 8 runs in by the mid-point of the game. Look for tonight's game to make up for that as the wind is expected to be blowing out to right field at a good clip this evening at Yankee Stadium and there is reason to believe each of these hurlers get "lit up" tonight in the Bronx. The Angels will have Jered Weaver on the mound and he's been crushed for 16 earned runs on 18 hits (including 5 homers) in his last two visits to the Bronx. He also has a 5.22 ERA on the road this season and has long been known for having success when pitching in Anaheim but often struggling away from home. Look for that trend to continue this evening. Nathan Eovaldi gets the ball for the Yankees tonight and he was hit hard at Baltimore in his most recent start. He has a 4.50 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Angels and looked "off" against the Orioles. The Angels, before slowing down a bit in their last two games, had been very hot at the plate and I expect them to resume the hot hitting on a hitter-friendly night with the ball carrying quite well tonight. The Angels had averaged 6.1 runs per game in their last 10 games heading into this series with the Yankees. Also, the over is 10-5 in Weaver's career starts versus the Yanks. *8* OVER in NY Yankees |
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06-07-16 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 105 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs +105 in Cincinnati vs St Louis @ 7:10 ET - A total of 9.5 in a national league game not played at Coors Field in Colorado certainly may seem high. But, in this case, it is absolutely justified. The wind, though not strong, will be blowing out at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati and certainly the Reds home park has earned its reputation as a hitter-friendly venue. Cincy has been swinging the bats very well. The Reds have averaged 7.1 runs per game in their last 10 games and are confident at the plate thanks to a 6-3 stretch in their last 9 games. The Cardinals enter this game off of back to back wins that saw St Louis produce a total of 13 runs on 22 hits. The over is 12-5 in the Cards last 17 games. The Reds have had just 5 unders in their last 21 games! Though Mike Leake has solid numbers for the Cardinals this season, he spent many years as a Red and Great American Ball Park was not kind to him as he notoriously produced a high ERA and a high BAA in his home outings for Cincinnati. Also, Leake comes into this start having allowed 3 homers in his last 2 starts and the Reds John Lamb comes into this outing having allowed 4 homers in his last 3 starts. The Cincinnati southpaw has a 5.58 ERA on the season and Cardinals games against left-handed starters have gone 10-4 to the over this season. Also, the over is 17-9 in St Louis road games this season and the Cards are 20-9 to the over this season when off of a win. The Reds are 4-0 to the over this season and 7-0 to the over the past three seasons combined when they are a home dog in a price range of +150 to +175. The over is 17-10 this season in Cincy home games and 15-7 in Reds divisional games. Against right-handed starters, the over is 28-12 (70%) in Cincinnati games this season. Also, after a game where they allowed 10 runs or more (keep in mind their bullpen is atrocious), the Reds have gone 5-1 to the over this season and 17-6 to the over the past three seasons combined. As you can see from all of the above, there is plenty of reason to expect this match-up to reach a total of double digits in runs. *10* OVER in Cincinnati |
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06-06-16 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs +100 in Texas vs Houston @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday the Astros were at home against the A's and their game stayed under the total. However, Houston had gone over the total in 6 of their 7 prior games. Also, the over is 7-2 this season in Astros road games where they are priced from -100 to -125. Houston is also 5-1 to the over this season in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Rangers game stayed under the total yesterday but Texas is still 14-8 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the Rangers are 5-2 to the over this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Texas will have Colby Lewis on the mound and he is known for struggling in his home starts. In 2014 he went 3-9 with a 5.90 ERA at home. Last season Lewis compiled a 5.07 ERA at home. This season Lewis has been fantastic on the road but he has a 4.50 ERA at home where he has been hit at a .288 clip. He just faced the Astros in Houston a little over two weeks ago and had success but the fact this is a quick second look for the Astros plus the fact Lewis struggles at home combines to mean this outing is likely to be quite different! Mike Fiers gets the start for Houston and his solid effort versus the Rangers a little over two weeks ago was a rarity. It produced only the 2nd under that he has had this season compared to 8 overs! The Astros are winless in Fiers road starts this season and all 3 went over the total as he has compiled an ugly 8.04 ERA away from home. The Rangers had 5 straight overs before yesterday's under. That said, look for both teams to resume their hot hitting ways Monday as the pitching match-up and home/road dichotomies of these two hurlers is likely to bring out the best in each lineup. The Rangers have averaged 6.7 runs per game in their last 10 games. The Astros have averaged 6.5 runs per game in their last 8 games. A 7-6 type game here would not surprise me in the least. *10* OVER in Texas |
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06-06-16 | Cubs v. Phillies OVER 8 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 runs -118 in Philadelphia vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies Adam Morgan has allowed 12 earned runs on 17 hits (including 5 homers!) in the 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts. One of those starts came against the Cubs and the southpaw now has to face them again on a mild night in Philly with the wind expected to be blowing out. This one could get ugly quick for Morgan but I also look for the resurgent Phillies to get their fair share against the Cubs Jon Lester. The Phils have some sticks in their lineup that have enjoyed success against him and the Phillies are getting a quick second look at him as it was Lester who was matched up with Morgan on May 27th in Chicago. The Cubs southpaw has seen only 1 of his 4 road starts stay under the total this season and note that only 1 of Morgan's 4 home starts have stayed under the total this year. The Phillies hit 3 homers yesterday and scored 8 runs in their win over the Brewers and that will help the Philadelphia lineup to step into the box with some confidence against Lester as they now get a shot at him at home in a situation where it will be a hitter-friendly night at the ballpark. The over is 11-3 the last three seasons combined when the Phils are a home dog of +175 or more. The Cubs are 5-2 to the over this season as a road favorite of -175 or more. *8* OVER in Philadelphia |
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06-05-16 | Giants v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 115 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 or 8.5 runs in St Louis vs San Francisco @ 8:05 ET - The whole world is likely to flock to the under here and I love fading the masses. What people see here is that Jake Peavy is off of back to back strong starts. However, he faced a Padres team that certainly is not known for their hitting prowess and Peavy faced a Braves team that possesses arguably the worst offense in baseball. That said, let's look at what he did before these two starts. The Giants right-hander got crushed by the Cubs in a start where he gave up 7 earned runs and didn't even last 2 innings. That start was at home but it's not like things have gone well for Peavy on the road either. He is 1-3 with a 7.20 ERA in his 5 starts away from San Francisco this season. Tonight Peavy faces a Cardinals lineup that is rejuvenated after rallying from a 4-0 deficit yesterday. The Cards have now won 5 of their last 8 games and they've averaged 7.6 runs per game in the 5 victories. As a home favorite of -125 to -150, the Cardinals are 6-1 to the over this season. When off of a win the Cards are 19-9 to the over this year. The Giants are 28-14 to the over the past three seasons when they are a road dog of +125 to +150. This season San Francisco is 15-7 to the over when off of a loss. The Giants have scored at least 4 runs in 9 of their last 11 games. San Fran should have no trouble with the offerings of Carlos Martinez. The right-hander is off of a strong start at free-swinging Milwaukee but he previously got rocked for 10 earned runs in 10 innings in his 2 prior starts and those were both in St Louis. Martinez is back home again for tonight's match-up with the Giants and, before shutting out the Brewers in his most recent start at Milwaukee, he had given up at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. Struggles resume for him tonight and both line-ups are "feeling it" right now at the plate! *10* OVER in St Louis |
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06-05-16 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs +112 in Texas vs Seattle @ 3:05 ET - With yesterday's 10-4 Seattle loss going over the total easily, the Mariners have now been a part of a 11 straight games going over the total! I fully expect them to make it 12 in a row on Sunday. The Mariners have averaged 7.6 runs per game during this 11 game stretch and they're matched up with a Rangers club that has averaged 6.8 runs per game during their current 8-2 run their last 10 games. As you can see, both teams are swinging the bats extremely well and neither starting pitcher today is overpowering. The Mariners Hisashi Iwakuma has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts and these came against Oakland, Cincinnati, and San Diego. The A's are one of the lowest scoring teams in the league and the Reds and Padres are both hitting under .240 this season! Now Iwakuma must deal with a potent (and red hot!) Rangers lineup on a mild afternoon in Texas with the wind blowing out to right field at a good clip. Iwakuma struggles against left-handed batters and the Rangers could have as many as 5 left-handed bats plus a switch-hitter (Jurickson Profar) in the lineup this afternoon. Of course the Rangers sticks are unlikely to be the only bats doing damage today. The Mariners should crush Derek Holland. Yes, the Rangers southpaw had a successful outing against them earlier this season but, in Holland's two prior starts versus the M's (including one in Texas) he gave up 12 earned runs in less than 12 innings of work! In Holland's 4 home starts this season, only one stayed under and the over is 8-3 in Iwakuma's starts this season. The over is 14-7 in Rangers home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season and the over is 13-6 in Texas games against teams with a winning record this year. There is simply no reason that the Mariners shouldn't make it 12 overs in a row this afternoon! *10* OVER in Texas Sunday. |
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06-05-16 | Nationals v. Reds OVER 9 | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 runs -105 in Cincinnati vs Washington @ 1:10 ET - The wind is expected to be blowing out to left this afternoon in Cincinnati. With yesterday's 6-3 Reds win, the over is now 27-12 this season in Cincinnati's games against right-handed starters this season. Also, Tanner Roark is certainly no Stephen Strasburg, whom the Reds defeated yesterday. There were 5 homers hit in yesterday's game and with the wind carrying the ball very well again today, we should see a slugfest erupt. Even though Roark has solid numbers this season, he allowed two homers in his most recent start at Cincinnati which was just last season. Also, he's facing a Reds lineup that is simply surging with confidence right now. Cincy is averaging 7 runs per game in their last 9 games. The Nationals certainly should join the hitting frenzy today as well. The Nats will be able to "tee off" against the Reds Jon Moscot who allowed 4 homers in his most recent start. Overall on the season, the Cincinnati right-hander has a 7.13 ERA and he has given up 8 home runs in his 4 starts. As a big home dog of +150 to +175, Cincy is 6-0 to the over the past three seasons combined. Also, with yesterday's over, the Reds are now 11-5 to the over in day games this season. The over is now 8-4-1 in Washington's last 13 games. *8* OVER in Cincinnati Sunday |
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06-04-16 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 106 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Baltimore vs New York Yankees @ 7:15 ET - Ivan Nova gets the start for the Yankees and he has compiled an 8.21 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Orioles. He comes into this start having allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts and certainly Baltimore's lineup is filled with confidence right now! The Orioles have won 3 straight games and averaged scoring 10.3 runs per game in these three blowouts! Overall, the over is 8-1-1 in the O's last 10 games and I highly doubt that Nova is going to slow them down. Not only is Nova having some current struggles but, again, it is the match-up issue here that will be a key as the 8.21 ERA in Nova's last 3 starts against Baltimore is indicative of many Orioles hitters simply 'having his number'. The Yankees have mostly been an "under team" recently but a lot of that has also had to do with the Yanks struggles against southpaws. Saturday the Bronx Bombers will be facing a right-hander who is not overly dominant. Tyler Wilson has pitched decently since moving into the rotation but he does appear to be fading. In his last three starts, Wilson has a 5.30 ERA and has given up 4 homers. Wilson is still winless in home starts this season and in his 7 overall starts this season only 2 have resulted in an under. The over is 6-2 in Orioles Saturday games this season and the over is an incredible 12-2 in Baltimore games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The O's bullpen has been much more hittable of late and has helped result in this factoid: with allowing 10 hits to the Yanks yesterday, the Orioles have allowed double digits in hits in 5 straight games and 7 of their last 8 games! Look for more of the same today as another 6-5 game with both teams reaching double digits in hits certainly is a strong probability again today. *10* OVER in Baltimore |
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06-04-16 | Rays v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs +100 in Minnesota vs Tampa Bay @ 4:10 ET - The wind will be blowing out at a nice clip this afternoon in Minnesota. A day game with the wind blowing out is always a nice recipe for an over and I love the pitching match-up here to be conducive to plenty of offense. The Rays Matt Andriese is off of a strong start at Kansas City but his strikeout numbers were down. Also, in his prior two starts he gave up 7 earned runs in 11 and 1/3 innings for a 5.56 ERA. The point is that Andriese is coming back down to earth after some surprising success after his call up from AAA ball. He'll be opposed by Ervin Santana of the Twins who gave up 6 earned runs on 9 hits in less than 4 innings of work in his most recent home start. Also, when Santana most recently faced the Rays (in August) he gave up 5 earned runs on 8 hits in less than 3 innings of work. Yesterday's game between these clubs stayed under the total but, prior to that, Tampa Bay had gone over the total in 4 straight games and the Twins had gone over the total in 8 of their last 10 games. Minnesota has averaged 10 hits per game in their last 11 games while the Rays have averaged 9 hits per game in their last 8 road games. The over is 6-2 in Tampa Bay's last 8 road games. The over is 19-11 this season in Twins games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. *8* OVER 8.5 runs in Minnesota |
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06-03-16 | A's v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 2-12 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* UNDER 8.5 in Houston vs Oakland @ 8:10 ET - The under is 9-3-1 in the Astros last 13 homes games after yesterday's 3-0 shutout loss at home to the Diamondbacks. Today the Houston sticks will face Jesse Hahn who held them scoreless in 6 and 2/3 innings of work earlier this season in late April. Hahn has allowed only 11 hits in his last 12 innings on the mound but he's been victimized by some big hits. He should again be able to shutdown the free-swinging Astros tonight. Houston will have Doug Fister on the mound and he shut down the A's earlier this season on May 1st when he held them to just 1 earned run in 6 and 2/3 innings of work. The right-hander has been one of the Astros most consistent starts and has a solid 3.06 ERA in his last 8 starts. Overall, Fister's last 9 starts have produced only one over! The under is 4-2 in the A's last 6 games and they held their opponents to an average of just 2.7 runs per game. Oakland has won five straight games and they were off yesterday. The A's are 3-1 to the under this season after an off day. The under is also 15-9 in Oakland games this season when they are off of a win. The Astros have played 20 home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs so far this season. Only 30% (6) of those 20 games have resulted in an over! The Astros usually respond after getting shutout but they do it with pitching. Houston is 17-9 the past three seasons after getting shutout and only 9 of those 26 Astros games went over the total. *8* UNDER 8.5 in Houston |
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06-03-16 | Nationals v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Cincinnati vs Washington @ 7:10 ET - The over is 3-0 in the Nationals Gio Gonzalez last three starts. The Nats southpaw has struggled badly in the last two outings with 13 earned runs allowed in the two starts which have spanned less than 10 innings of work. Gonzalez will be opposed by the Reds Brandon Finnegan tonight. The Cincinnati southpaw has only 1 win even though he's made 11 starts this season. Finnegan is winless in his five home starts and the over is 4-1 in those 5 outings. The Red southpaw has walked 4 batters or more in 3 of his last 4 starts overall. Also, he has a 6.10 ERA in his last 4 home starts. 7 of the Nationals last 11 games have gone over the total and Washington has scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 7 wins. The Reds have had just 1 under in their last 7 games and they've got their confidence going at the plate again thanks to a road trip that wrapped up with visits to hitter friendly Milwaukee and ultra hitter-friendly Colorado. The Reds have scored an average of 7 runs per game in their last 7 games and have averaged 11.5 hits per game in their last 6 games. With their confidence at the plate and now back home and facing a struggling Gonzalez, this should turn into a slugfest because Finnegan's struggles at home are likely to continue. The Reds southpaw faced Washington in September and struggled badly while Gonzalez faced Cincy once last season and he also struggled in that outing. As a home dog of +150 to 175 the past three seasons, the over has gone 5-0 in Reds games! Look for the over to improve to 6-2 in Washington's Friday games this season. *10* OVER 8.5 in Cincinnati |
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06-02-16 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-12 | Win | 107 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Baltimore vs Boston @ 7:05 ET - After yesterday's slugfest there is really no reason not to expect more of the same today. What is helping to keep the total down on this game is the impressive full season stats of Rick Porcello. That is good news because his current form is not what it was earlier this season and the Red Sox right-hander truly seems to be coming back down to earth after his surprising early season success. Porcello has given up 9 run (8 earned) on 15 hits in 11 and 2/3 innings of work spanning his last two road starts. This 6.17 ERA on the road in his last two outings could certainly balloon even more Thursday evening as he faces an Orioles lineup surging with confidence after piling up 13 runs on 14 hits in yesterday's game. Baltimore has averaged 9.3 hits and 5.5 runs per game in their last 6 games. Facing the Orioles has been a nightmare for Porcello in recent meetings as he has given up 17 earned runs on 28 hits in less than 17 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts versus the O's. The only good news for Red Sox fans tonight is that Porcello should get plenty of run support. Ubaldo Jimenez takes the mound for the Orioles tonight and he is an awful current form plus has a history of struggles versus Boston. Jimenez is 2-6 with a 7.00 ERA in his 13 career starts against the Red Sox. Also, Jimenez comes into this outing 0-3 with an 11.57 ERA in his last 3 starts. Boston has had just 2 unders in their last 9 games and the Orioles have had just 1 under in their last 6 games. The over is 12-5 in Baltimore games against teams with a winning record. Also, the over is 11-2 this season in Orioles games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 11-3 in Red Sox games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. It's "getaway day" for the BoSox today and I look for the over to improve to 5-1 in Boston's Thursday games this season. *10* OVER in Baltimore |
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06-02-16 | Diamondbacks v. Astros OVER 7.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 in Houston vs Arizona @ 2:10 ET - On the surface this looks like a pitchers' duel considering it is Zack Greinke versus Dallas Keuchel. However, there are a multitude of reasons to expect this one to get over the total including this: with yesterday's game going over the closing total of 8.5 runs, the over is now a PERFECT 12-0 in Arizona's last dozen games and a PERFECT 4-0 in Houston's last 4 games! Also, the over is 11-3 in Diamondbacks day games this season and 11-5 in Dbacks game against left-handed starters and 15-6 in Arizona's games against teams with a losing record. As for Houston, the over is 10-4 in their day games and 10-3 in Astros games against teams with a losing record. Keuchel had a magical season last year for Houston including a phenomenal performance in his home games on the season. However, the Astros have only gone 1-3 in his home starts this season and the southpaw has compiled a 4.97 ERA in those outings which is nothing close to the fantastic numbers he put up last season. The left-hander is off of a strong start against the Angels at LA but Keuchel allowed 5 earned runs or more in 5 of his 7 prior starts as he's labored often in his outings this year. Although Greinke has been pitching better of late, the over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts and he has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 outings. Considering the low total here and the combined 16-0 run to the over that these teams share, there is value in grabbing the over in this day game Thursday. *8* OVER in Houston |
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06-02-16 | Giants v. Braves OVER 7 | 6-0 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7 in Atlanta vs San Francisco @ 12:10 ET - With Madison Bumgarner on the mound this total is being kept down low. This is offering great line value for the over because the Braves Aaron Blair is likely to get rocked. Not only is he winless in his 6 starts this season while compiling a 6.67 ERA, he also has been especially roughed up in his last 3 starts as he's been rocked to the tune of an 11.81 ERA in those outings. A big concern for the Atlanta right-hander in this match-up is that he has struggled to get left-handed batters out at the MLB level and the Giants lineup will be loaded with dangerous left-handed lumber today. As strong as Bumgarner has certainly been for San Francisco, the over is 4-1 in his road starts this season and he has allowed 5 homers in his 5 outings away from home. The over is also 14-6 in San Francisco's day games this season and 3-0 in Blair's last 3 starts for Atlanta. Also, there have only been 2 unders in the 8 home games the Braves have had this season that had a posted total of 7 runs or less. Take advantage of the low number Thursday. *8* OVER 7 in Atlanta |
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06-01-16 | Diamondbacks v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Houston vs Arizona @ 8:10 ET - With yesterday's 8-3 win, not only have the Astros won 7 of their last 8 games, they have scored 8 runs in three straight games. Houston is averaging about 10 hits per game during this 8 game stretch and they should have no problems with the offerings of Robbie Ray. The Diamondbacks struggling southpaw allowed 5 earned runs on 9 hits (including 2 homers) to the light-hitting Padres in his most recent start. That doesn't bode well for Ray in terms of now facing a much stronger, and much hotter, lineup in the form of the Astros in Houston tonight. Ray has a 1.67 WHIP on the season so don't be fooled by his "respectable" 4.50 ERA on the season. He has been far worse on the mound than what that ERA would lead you to believe. Ray won't be the only hurler getting pounded tonight. The Astros Michael Fiers got rocked in a pitcher-friendly park in his most recent start. At Anaheim to face the Los Angeles Angels, Fiers gave up 7 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work. The Houston right-hander has allowed 10 homers in his 9 starts this season and now faces the Diamondbacks at hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park. Fiers has given up 10 earned runs in his last 10 innings against the Dbacks and Arizona has got to him for 3 homers in those two starts against him. The over is 7-2 in Fiers starts this season. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Ray's last four starts and 6 of his last 7. The over is 14-6 in Arizona's 20 games against teams with a losing record this season. The over is 9-3 in Astros games against teams with a losing record. The over is also 8-4 in Houston's games against left-handed starters this season. *10* OVER in Houston |
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06-01-16 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 9 | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in Milwaukee vs St Louis @ 1:40 ET - With yesterday's 10-3 loss to the Cardinals, the Brewers have now lost back to back games. However, this was preceded by a 5-1 run for Milwaukee where they averaged 5 runs per game and their offense should be able to get back on track against Jaime Garcia today. The Cardinals southpaw is 1-2 with a 6.28 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The over is 11-6 this season in Milwaukee's games against left-handed starters. There is no doubt that the Cardinals should stay hot at the plate this afternoon. Even though the Brewers Zach Davies has some better numbers in his last 3 starts, he faced the Reds and Mets and Padres. Those are 3 of the worst hitting teams in the majors! On Wednesday Davies is facing a Cardinals team whose .460 slugging percentage this season ranks them 3rd out of all 30 teams in the majors! The Cards have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 13 games and there is no reason that their lineup won't keep rolling this afternoon. The over is 17-8 in St Louis road games this season and 11-4 in their games against teams with a losing record and 11-5 in their day games this year. In games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the Brewers are now 12-6 to the over this season. *8* OVER in Milwaukee |
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05-31-16 | Rays v. Royals OVER 8 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 in Kansas City vs Tampa Bay @ 8:15 ET - With yesterday's 6-2 win, the Royals are not only 7-0 to the over in their last 7 games, Kansas City has averaged 7 runs per game and 12 hits per game during this red hot stretch. I expect the Royals to remain on fire at the plate as they face the Rays Drew Smyly tonight. The Tampa Bay southpaw has begun to struggle after a strong start to the season. Smyly has given up 8 earned runs in his last two starts and has allowed four homers during this rough stretch. Smyly also has allowed three homers in his last two starts against the Royals. This gives us what we need for one half of the slugfest tonight as the Royals are also 3-1 to the over this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more and the over is 6-2 in Kansas City's Tuesday games  this season. The Rays should also enjoy plenty of success at the plate tonight. The Royals will be sending Dillon Gee to the mound and the right-hander is 1-2 with a 5.65 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in his three starts since moving into the rotation. The over is 9-1-1 in the Rays last 11 road games and after a loss this season (26 before yesterday's defeat), an under has resulted in the next game just 10 times in 26 occurrences. Look for the Rays sticks to respond after a tough time in their last two games. Gee just isn't getting the job done right now for the Royals and the Rays sticks will take advantage. Take advantage of the low total here and, as long as we hold off the rain in this one (could be scattered storms in the KC area tonight) we should be able to cash a rather easy over in this one. *10* OVER in Kansas City |
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05-31-16 | Rangers v. Indians OVER 7.5 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 in Cleveland vs Texas @ 6:10 ET - The Rangers Colby Lewis lasted just 5 innings against the Angels in his most recent start as he was rocked for 6 earned runs. The Texas right-hander has struggled in his career outings versus the Indians including his two most recent starts which were both last season. Lewis got rocked by Cleveland for 16 runs (14 earned) on 18 hits in the less than 8 innings of work that spanned the two outings. He also has allowed 2 homers in each of his last two starts at Progressive Field. The Indians have really had their sticks going after a slow start to the season. As a result, the over is now 12-5-1 in Cleveland's last 18 games. The Rangers have won 8 of their last 10 games and Texas has scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 8 games. With yesterday's 9-2 loss to the Rangers, the over is an amazing 17-6 in Indians home games this season. Even though Cleveland got blasted on the scoreboard, the Indians actually matched the Rangers for hits as they each notched 11 yesterday. Cleveland has averaged 5.5 runs per game in their last 14 games and they've reached double digits in hits in half of those games. They should pound Lewis. The Indians will have Corey Kluber on the mound who certainly has put up some good numbers at times but he's 1-3 with a 4.67 ERA in home games this season. Kluber has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 3 of his 4 home starts so far this year. The over is 6-2 in Rangers Tuesday games this season and, with an average of 10 hits per game in their last 8 games, look for Texas to stay hot at the plate as Kluber's home struggles continue. *8* OVER in Cleveland |
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05-31-16 | Padres v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | 4-16 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 in Seattle vs San Diego @ 3:40 ET - With yesterday's 9-3 Mariners win, Seattle games have now gone over the total in 6 straight and Padres games have gone over the total in 4 straight. San Diego will have James Shields on the mound Tuesday afternoon and the veteran right-hander has seen the Padres go 2-8 in his 10 starts so far this season. Though he has a solid ERA on the season, Shields has been hit at a .294 clip in the month of May. In other words, he's been somewhat fortunate to maintain such a low ERA despite being very hittable in his last 5 starts. As for the Mariners, they'll have Hisashi Iwakuma on the mound Tuesday afternoon and he has been hit at a .286 clip on the season. The Mariners righty has also gone 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA in day games this season. The M's have gone 1-3 in Iwakuma's 4 home starts this season and he has compiled a 5.55 ERA in those outings. The Padres have not impressed at the plate this season but they are hitting the ball better of late. San Diego has averaged nearly 5 runs per game in their last 6 games while averaging 10 hits per game during this stretch. The Mariners lineup has been on fire as they've averaged nearly 6 runs per game in their last 11 contests and Seattle has averaged 10 hits per game in those 11 match-ups. Interestingly, the over is 7-1 in Mariners Tuesday games this season and 37-16 the last 3 seasons combined. The over is 5-2 in Seattle games where they are a home favorite of -150 to -175 this season. As for the Padres, look for the over to improve to 7-3 in their last 10 road games! *8* OVER in Seattle |
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05-30-16 | Twins v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Oakland vs Minnesota @ 4:05 ET - The A's game stayed under the total but Oakland had previously gone over the total in 4 of their last 6 games and they did notch 4 runs on 9 hits in yesterday's game. Oakland is now averaging 5 runs per game and 9 hits per game in their last 7 games. The Athletics are 16-10 to the over in the month of May. The Twins have had just 6 unders in their 25 games in the month of May. Minnesota comes into Monday's game having gone over the total in 6 straight games. The Twins have averaged 5.5 runs per game during this stretch as they have finally got their bats going and the A's Kendall Graveman is unlikely to slow them down! Graveman has a 5.36 ERA on the season and a 1.85 WHIP in his last 3 starts! In other words, he's been allowing way too many baserunners and the way the Twins are swinging the bats right now (3 homers yesterday in Seattle) allowing too many baserunners will get Graveman into trouble in a hurry in this one. The Twins Ervin Santana comes into this game off of an ugly start versus Kansas City. He allowed 6 earned runs on 9 hits in less than 4 innings of work! Santana has a 1.62 WHIP in road games this season and the right-hander is facing a very confident A's team at Oakland this afternoon. With back to back wins and piling up 26 hits in their last two games, the A's should have no trouble with the offerings of Santana this afternoon. The over is 18-9 this season in Twins games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. When off of a win the over is 11-3 in Minnesota games this season. Also, the past three seasons combined the over is 23-10 when the Twins enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more and this includes a perfect 3-0 mark to the over this season. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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05-30-16 | White Sox v. Mets OVER 7 | 0-1 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7 runs in New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:10 ET - The Mets continue to give Matt Harvey the opportunity to pitch his way out of his struggles. However, it's not working. Harvey has gone 0-3 with a 10.79 ERA and a 2.34 WHIP in his last 3 starts. In his last 2 starts, the Mets southpaw has allowed 4 homers while issuing more walks than strikeouts. Also, his strikeout numbers are trending downward and he now faces a White Sox club that has hit the ball well so far on this road trip. Even though the ChiSox lost all 3 games at Kansas City, including some heartbreakers, the pitching (including the bullpen) was the real issue! The ChiSox pen has been a weakness and this has been particularly true on the road where their ERA is in the 5.00 range so far this season. Jose Quintana gets the start for the White Sox today and, although he has posted solid numbers this season, he's facing a former team and will put a little extra added pressure on himself Monday afternoon. Also, Quintana struggled in day games last season with an 0-5 mark in 10 road starts where he compiled an ugly 5.49 ERA under the sun on the season. The Mets game stayed under the total yesterday but they entered that game on a 7-3 run to the over. Also, the White Sox enter this game on a 5-1 run to the over and, on the season, the over is 15-9 in ChiSox road games. The over is 9-5 in Mets games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, in Mets home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less, the over is 12-6 this season. *8* OVER in New York Mets |
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05-29-16 | Twins v. Mariners OVER 8 | 5-4 | Win | 106 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 runs +105 in Seattle vs Minnesota @ 4:10 ET - The Twins offense is finally starting to produce and that is giving us some nice line value here with the over in a game where there is no doubt that Minnesota should keep the bats rolling hot. Minny has averaged 5.6 runs per game in their last 5 games and they've reached double digits in hits in all but one of those games. All 5 of these games went over the total and the over is 16-5 in Twins games in the month of May. Also, this season, when off of a win Minnesota has gone 10-3 to the over. Also, in the past three seasons combined, when the Twins enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more, the over has gone 22-10. Simpy put, Minny is hot and I doubt that Taijuan Walker will slow them down. He has given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts and has compiled a 4.00 ERA during this subpar stretch. The good news for Mariners fans is that Seattle should certainly give Walker plenty of run support today. The Twins are starting Ricky Nolasco Sunday and he has given up at least 4 earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. After an under was the result in his first start this season, NONE of his 8 starts since have resulted in unders. Nolasco's starts have produced 6 overs and 2 pushes in his last 8 outings. Nolasco has given up 38 hits in his last 24 and 1/3 innings and the Mariners have averaged 5.6 runs per game in their last 11 games. It is no fluke as the M's have averaged 10 hits per game during this stretch and they should have no troubles with the offerings of a struggling Nolasco. Behind him is a Twins bullpen that has been miserable in road games this season. A 1-8 record on the road for the Minny pen and yesterday was their first successful road save of the entire season in road games. The over is 6-2 this season in Mariners home games where they are favored in a price range of -150 to -200. *8* OVER in Seattle |
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05-29-16 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 106 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10.5 runs +105 in Colorado vs San Francisco - These teams combined for 15 runs yesterday and it should be more of the same today. Johnny Cueto of the Giants comes into this game with great overall numbers on the season but he now goes from back to back starts against light-hitting Padres in pitcher-friendly parks to facing a dangerous Rockies lineup in the most hitter-friendly ball park in the league. Also, being an afternoon game and with extra dry air expected at Coors Field today, it will be a challenge for Cueto. He did face the Rockies earlier in May and did have success despite allowing 8 hits but that start was in San Francisco. He has had some success at Coors Field in past years but Colorado is hitting .294 at home so far this season while averaging 5.5 runs. The Rockies are averaging nearly 5 runs per game in day games this season while the Giants are averaging 5.6 runs per game under the sun this season. San Francisco should have no troubles with the offerings of Chris Rusin today. The Giants are hitting .272 against lefties this season and the southpaw got absolutely crushed by the Giants when he faced them at San Francisco in early May. Now he must take them on at Coors Field where he has a 4.97 ERA this season and had a 5.29 ERA last season. Rusin is 11-21 in his MLB career and has been hit at a .295 clip in the bigs. Couple that with the fact he's facing a Giants lineup that just put up 10 runs yesterday and he's facing them at Coors Field and you have the opportunity for him to take another pummeling like he did at AT & T Park earlier this month. The over is 13-6 in Giants day games this season and I look for another one here. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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05-29-16 | Tigers v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs -105 in Oakland vs Detroit @ 4:05 ET - The Tigers full season batting stats against left-handed pitchers are not that impressive but Detroit has hit southpaws better recently. Detroit got to the A's Manaea for 9 hits in 6 innings and they also got to the Rays Smyly for 7 hits in 6 and 1/3 innings. Both these outings occurred within the past 9 days and I look for the Tiger to enjoy some success against Rich Hill of the A's this afternoon. Yes he's been pitching extremely well this season but the Oakland left-hander is 1-3 with a 3.79 ERA in home starts this season so it's not like he has been flawless this season. Additionally, the Tigers already faced Hill in late April so they will be getting a rather quick second look at him. The A's lineup will also be getting a rather quick second look at the Tigers Mike Pelfrey whom they pounded them and I look for even better success in the rematch. Pelfrey remains winless on the season and he's allowed 18 hits (including 4 homers) in the 11 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Pelfrey is 0-3 with a ridiculous 11.04 ERA in his 3 career starts against Oakland. The Athletics pounded out 17 hits in yesterday's 12-3 win over the Tigers and they should no problem with Pelfrey as the over improves to 17-9 in Oakland's games this month. As for Detroit, the over is a perfect 6-0 in their Sunday games this season. Also, the over is an insane 16-2 in Tigers day games this season. Also, when off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more, the over is 21-12 in Detroit games the past three seasons combined. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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05-28-16 | Astros v. Angels OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in LA Angels vs Houston @ 10:05 ET - Last season Dallas Keuchel was phenomenal at home but much more hittable on the road. This season he's getting roughed up both home and away and a start at Anaheim against the Angels is unlikely to help matters. Keuchel is 1-4 on the road with a 6.57 ERA this season. In his last 3 starts the southpaw is winless with an 8.84 ERA. Even though the Angels Jered Weaver is off of a strong start, he previously allowed 12 runs (11 earned) on 19 hits in 11 innings of work spanning his last two starts. Home runs allowed have been a big problem for Weaver with 11 homers in 9 games and the Astros do have a potent, dangerous, powerful lineup that has enjoyed some longball success against Weaver in his career outings against them. The over is 3-0 in Keuchel's last 3 starts and also 5-1 in his road starts this season. The Angels lineup has been heating up and should have no trouble with Keuchel's offerings. With their 7-2 win yesterday, the Angels have scored at least 7 runs in 7 of their last 13 games. The Astros haven't been scoring a lot of late but Weaver does not have overpowering stuff and will prove to be a good match-up for them tonight. The over is 6-3 in the Angels last 9 games and 15-9 in the month of May overall. The over is 10-1 in Astros road games where they are priced from -100 to -150 this season! When playing against a team with a losing record, the over is 6-2 in Astros games this season. *10* OVER 7.5 in LA Angels |
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05-28-16 | Marlins v. Braves OVER 7.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 runs in Atlanta vs Miami @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday's game between these clubs stayed under the total but the teams combined for 22 hits in the game. The Braves will build off what was just their third home win of the season as, piling up 14 hits in yesterday's victory certainly gives them some confidence heading into Saturday's afternoon match-up. There is no denying the Braves have been the worst team in the National League so far this season but yesterday marked the 9th time in their last 13 games that Atlanta has tallied at least 8 hits. They are certainly hitting the ball much better than they were early this season even though they have had some trouble scoring runs. The key here is they should have some success against Wei-Yin Chen of the Marlins. The Miami southpaw has struggled lately with 8 runs (7 earned) on 15 hits (including 3 homers) in his last two starts spanning less than 12 innings of work. Atlanta will be seeing him for a 2nd time this season. As for the Marlins, even though they have not faced Aaron Blair, they should have no trouble with Blair's offerings today. Atlanta had wanted to given him more time at Triple A as he is 0-3 with a 7.59 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in his 5 starts at the MLB level this season. Blair has particularly struggled in his last 3 outings and now faces a Miami team that is hitting .285 on the road this season which is far and away the tops in the majors! The Braves had wanted to start Casey Kelley here but he ended up having to pitch in emergency relief Wednesday so plans had to change and Blair will take his punishment this afternoon. *8* OVER 7.5 in Atlanta |
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05-28-16 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs -115 in Toronto vs Boston @ 1:05 ET - The Red Sox Rick Porcello has faced the Blue Jays twice so far this season and he allowed 2 homers in each start. Though his overall numbers are good this season, Toronto has always been a nemesis for him. This is particularly true at the Rogers Centre where he has gone 2-5 with a 7.15 ERA in 7 career appearances. The Blue Jays have plenty of confidence at the plate after yesterday's 7-5 win brings their current run to 6-2 in their last 8 games. The over is now 4-0 in the Jays last 4 home games. The Red Sox have arguably the top offense in the league this season and yesterday's result makes the over 12-3-2 in Boston's last 17 games. They'll face Marcus Stroman who they got to for 5 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings earlier this season. Also, the Blue Jays right-hander got clobbered in his most recent home start and has compiled a 5.51 ERA in his 5 starts at the Rogers Centre this season. These lineups have plenty of familiarity with the starting pitchers they are facing today and the result should be runs early and often in this one as the Blue Jays lineup is heating up and the Red Sox lineup has been strong all season long. *8* OVER 8.5 in Toronto |
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05-27-16 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 7 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7 runs -115 in Tampa Bay vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET Friday - The Yankees struggled again against a southpaw yesterday. It looked like the right spot for them to snap out of their funk against lefties but it continued. The good news Friday is that they face a right-hander instead of a lefty. The other good news is that it's a righty who has been struggling of late. Chris Archer gets the start for the Rays Friday and he has been struggling as evidenced by his 7.71 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, even though he has great career stats against the Yankees, Archer has lost his last two starts against the Yanks while allowing 7 runs (6 earned) in 12 and 1/3 innings of work. 7 walks and 2 homers were also a problem in those two outings which both occurred in September. Before their 3-1 loss yesterday, the Yankees had won 6 of their past 7 games while averaging 5 runs per game. Their offense will get right back on track against a struggling righty. As for the Rays offense, they got embarrassed in yesterday's 9-1 loss to Miami. Tampa Bay had averaged 6.5 runs per game in their 11 prior games. They should resume their hot hitting against Masahiro Tanaka of the Yankees. The Yanks right-hander just faced the Rays about five weeks ago so that should help in the rematch. Additionally, Tanaka comes in struggling a bit as he's compiled a 5.21 ERA in his last three starts overall. The over is 2-1 in those starts and the over is 3-0 in Archer's last three starts. With yesterday's 9-1 loss, the over is now 11-3-1 in the Rays last 15 games. The Yankees respond to facing a righty tonight (6-2 and 5 runs per game in their last 8 vs right-handers) and this one soars over the low number. *10* OVER in Tampa Bay |
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05-26-16 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs -115 in New York Yankees vs Toronto @ 4:05 ET - J.A. Happ made 10 daytime starts while with the Mariners last season and he went 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA. The prior season he was with the Jays and he had a 4.75 ERA in his daytime outings. Happ also had a 5.67 ERA in away games that year while with the Jays. With the M's last season he went 2-4 with a 5.98 ERA in games away from home. The point is that an afternoon match-up on a warm afternoon in the Bronx with the wind likely blowing out toward left field is not a good match-up for the left-hander. The Yankees just saw him last month and they should fare much better in the rematch given the conditions and the fact that they now get to face him on their home turf. The Yanks will need to score plenty to stay in this game today because their starter, C.C. Sabathia is likely to get rocked. I am fully aware that he had a good first start when he first came off of the DL but, like Happ, Sabathia is a guy who has struggled in day games in recent seasons. Sabathia has a 5.06 ERA in his 2 daytime starts this season, 7.36 ERA last season, 8.38 ERA in 2014, and a 4.71 ERA in 2013. The over is 5-1 this season in Yankees home games where they are priced from -100 to -125. Sabathia has given up 13 runs (12 earned) on 24 hits in his last 18 innings of work against the Blue Jays spanning his last 3 starts against them. Happ gave up 2 homers in just 5 innings in his last start in the Bronx and though he is off of a good start at Minnesota he was previously rocked by Tampa Bay in an ugly outing in his prior start which lasted only 2 innings. More of the same here. *10* OVER in NY Yankees |
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05-26-16 | Marlins v. Rays OVER 6.5 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 6.5 runs -120 in Tampa Bay vs Miami @ 1:10 ET - These teams are both swinging the bats quite well and yet we've seen back to back unders in this series the past two games. The teams fell just short of going over the total in each of the last two games even though they combined for 39 hits. A key problem, as you would expect, is wasted opportunities, and the teams have left 37 men on base in the past two games. The fact that each of the last two games failed to go over the total and the fact that today's pitching match-up makes it "look like" this should be a low-scoring game is combining to give us tremendous value with the over. Even though the Marlins Jose Fernandez is throwing very well right now, he has struggled against the Rays. Tampa Bay has proven to be a bit of a nemesis for him as he's gone 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP in his two career starts at Tropicana Field. While the Rays also have a "red hot" pitcher on the mound this afternoon and he did have a successful outing against the Marlins last season, Drew Smyly could be in trouble here. Miami is hitting left-handed pitching at a .295 clip so far this season! They have dominated southpaws as only one team (Boston) out of all 30 MLB teams has a higher batting average against lefties. Though Smyly has a "decent" ERA at home this season he is 0-3 in his home starts and he comes into this outing off of three road starts where he's compiled a 5.51 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. Giving up too many homers has been a problem and even if Yelich and Stanton are not in the lineup today the Marlins still have plenty of hitters with pop for extra bases...especially against lefties as they've hit so well against southpaws. The over is 41-28 the last 3 seasons combined in Marlins games against southpaws. The over is 21-11 the last three seasons in road games where Miami is priced between -100 and -125. The over is 13-8 this season in Marlins games against teams with a losing record. *10* OVER in Tampa Bay |
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05-26-16 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | 3-8 | Win | 105 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 runs +105 in Pittsburgh vs Arizona @ 12:35 ET - On the surface this may look like a pitchers' duel but it should prove to be anything but that! Even though the Pirates Gerrit Cole is off of a start where he allowed just 1 earned run in 7 innings against the Rockies, the concerning aspect is that he gave up 10 hits while recording 0 strikeouts in that outing. In other words Cole certainly had some good fortune in that start and now he faces a Diamondbacks lineup that got to him for 4 earned runs on 9 hits in less than 7 innings of work the last time they faced him. Also, Arizona has averaged 5.5 runs per game in their last 8 games and the over is 7-1 in those games. It will be a mild afternoon in Pittsburgh with the wind likely blowing out toward left field. The over is 5-1 in Pirates games against left-handed starters this season and they'll be facing southpaw Patrick Corbin. The Dbacks lefty gave up 3 homers against Pittsburgh in his most recent start against the Bucs and that was very recent, in late April. The Pirates are getting a quick "second look" at Corbin and certainly have plenty of confidence at the plate as they are one of the top hitting teams in the league and have averaged 5.7 runs per game in going 8-2 in their last 10 games. The over is 12-5 in Pirates day games this season and 13-5 when they are facing a team with a losing record. As a big road dog of +175 to +200, the over is 8-4 in Arizona games the past three seasons. Also, this season, the over is 7-3 in Diamondbacks day games. *8* OVER in Pittsburgh |
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05-25-16 | Rockies v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Boston vs Colorado @ 7:10 ET - The Rockies Chad Bettis could be a little "off" for this start. His last scheduled start was Sunday and he threw just one inning before the game got cancelled due to rain. Needless to say his routine could be a bit off after the rain-shortened start and now taking the ball on Wednesday for his first "full start" in over a week. Facing one of the toughest lineups in baseball in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in MLB is also not going to do Bettis any favors here. The Red Sox are on an 11-4 run and have averaged 7.5 runs per game during this 15 game hot streak at the plate! Boston will have knuckle-baller Steven Wright on the mound this evening. He has produced solid stats so far this season but if you look at the teams he has faced all of his opponents are ranked in the bottom half of the league in batting average or runs scored or BOTH. The point is that a dangerous Rockies lineup could definitely do some serious damage against him Wednesday night. The Rockies are hitting .297 on the season and the over is 31-20 the last 3 seasons combined in Colorado games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 7-2 this season in Red Sox games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is also 16-9 in Boston games this season when they are off of a win. Look for the Red Sox hitters to stay hot at the plate while the Rockies join in for some offensive fireworks tonight in weather conditions that are very favorable for the hitters Wednesday at Fenway Park. *10* OVER in Boston |
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05-25-16 | Padres v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in San Francisco vs San Diego @ 3:45 ET - The Giants offense got back on track in yesterday's 8-2 win and I expect another big game from them here. But it also won't surprise me to see the Padres match San Francisco run for run in this one. That's because the Giants will have Jake Peavy on the mound and he is 1-5 with an 8.21 ERA and a 1.90 WHIP this season. Peavy has given up at least 4 earned runs in 6 of his 9 starts this season. Even though the Padres have one of the weaker lineups in baseball, they should have no problems getting to Peavy in an afternoon game with the wind blowing out in San Francisco. As for the Giants hitters', they will be seeing the Padres James Shields for the 3rd time already this season. Even though Shields hasn't given up many runs in those two starts there certainly are some noteworthy stats that show he could be on the cusp of getting crushed by the San Francisco lineup this afternoon. Shields walked 4 in the first start and then allowed 9 hits in a start that lasted less than 7 innings in his 2nd start against the Giants. That outing came just last week and will help ensure that the San Francisco bats are "honed in" on Shields' offerings today. Look for the over to improve to 8-2 this season in Peavy's starts and also 4-2 in the Padres last 6 games. The over is 12-5 in Giants day games this season and 74-56 the last 3 seasons combined. *10* OVER in San Francisco |
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05-24-16 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Pittsburgh vs Arizona @ 7:05 ET - The Diamondbacks were off yesterday but they are on 5-1 run to the over through Sunday. In those 6 games Arizona has averaged 6.5 runs per game and they may surprise some today in terms of the damage they are capable of against Francisco Liriano of the Pirates. They got to him for two homers earlier this season in their game against the Pittsburgh southpaw and it marked the 2nd straight time that the Dbacks have gotten to him for at least 4 earned runs. Arizona is likely to again give Liriano some trouble Tuesday as he has allowed 10 earned runs on 16 hits (including 4 homers) in his last two starts which have spanned 11 and 2/3 innings. That's good news for the Diamondbacks because they'll need all the runs they can get today. That's because Arizona is starting Shelby Miller today and the right-hander has looked like he's throwing batting practice in recent outings. Miller has given up 17 hits in his last two starts and he's been fortunate that he's allowed only 3 earned runs in each outing as the 17 hits and 4 walks have been accumulated in just 11 and 1/3 innings of work. In other words Miller's current form shows him allowing about 2 baserunners per inning. That's not going to bode well for a match-up with a Pirates team that has won 6 of their last 8 games and has averaged 6.3 runs per game in those six victories. Pittsburgh has been red hot at the plate and, with yesterday's over versus Colorado, the Pirates are now 11-1 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is also 6-0 in Pittsburgh's Tuesday games this season. When playing against a team with a losing record, the over is 11-5 in Pirates games so far this year. The Diamondbacks have averaged 5.2 runs per game this season in games where the opposition started a southpaw. The Pirates are hitting .288 in home games this season. This has all the makings of a high-scoring battle between these foes Tuesday. *10* OVER in Pittsburgh |
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05-24-16 | Rays v. Marlins OVER 8 | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 in Miami vs Tampa Bay @ 12:10 ET - These teams combined to pile up the hits and runs yesterday and I look for more of the same today because neither one of these starting pitchers is in good form right now. The Rays Jake Odorizzi has given up 7 earned runs in only 9 innings over his last two starts. The Tampa right-hander has given up 5 homers in these 9 innings of work! Odorizzi has a 5.63 ERA in his three career starts against the Marlins and this will be the first time he has had to face them on their home turf in Miami and he has a 5.57 ERA in road outings this season. The Marlins will have Tom Koehler on the mound for this one and he has 13 hits and walked 10 in his last two outings. These two starts spanned less than 13 innings of work so Koehler has constantly been pitching himself into trouble and that is bad news today as he faces a Rays team that has been an "over machine" of late. The Tampa Bay lineup has been red hot for weeks and this has helped lead the way to a 10-1-1 run to the over in their last 12 games. The over is 11-6 in Rays road games this season and they are a perfect 3-0 to the over in interleague action this season. The over is 8-5 in Marlins day games this season and 13-6 in their games against teams with a losing record so far this year. *8* OVER in Miami |
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05-23-16 | Rays v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in Miami vs Tampa Bay @ 7:10 ET - Both of these teams were involved in games that went over the total yesterday and I look for more of the same today. The Rays have only stayed under the total once in their last dozen games! The Marlins certainly have not been such an "over machine" of late but Miami should feast on the offerings of the Rays Matt Moore today. The Marlins .273 batting average versus southpaws this season ranks them 5th in the majors and Moore is struggling badly. The Rays left-hander is winless in his last 3 starts with an 8.36 ERA and a 2.14 WHIP. The only good news for Moore is that he should benefit from some solid run support on Monday. Tampa Bay has a slugging percentage of .473 against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them 4th in the majors! That said, southpaw Wei-Yin Chen could give up some big hits in this one. The lefty has given up 23 hits (including 2 homers) in his last 17 and 1/3 innings of work. Also, the Rays lineup is very familiar with him and Chen has allowed 21 hits (including FOUR homers) in his last 17 innings against Tampa Bay. The over is 3-1 in Rays games this season where they are a small road dog of up to +125. In their 12 games against left-handed starters this season, Tampa Bay has had just 4 unders. The over is 40-28 in Marlins games against southpaw starters the past three seasons combined. *10* OVER in Miami |
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05-23-16 | Rockies v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | 3-6 | Win | 105 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs in Pittsburgh vs Colorado @ 12:35 ET - Jordan Lyles has made 6 career starts against the Pirates and he's picked up the loss in 4 of those starts and his team has lost all 6 starts as he compiled a 6.75 ERA in those outings. Ryan Vogelsong has faced the Rockies plenty of times in his career and, in the last three starts against Colorado, the Pirates right-hander has been rocked to the tune of 16 runs (15 earned) on 23 hits (including 5 homers) in just 14 innings of work. Of course this equates to an ERA up near 10 and he's like to struggle as well on a mile afternoon in western Pennsylvania today. Neither one of these "spot starters" has had a starting assignment in the month of May. The over is 3-1 in the 4 starts Lyles has made this season. After yesterday's rainout the teams have had plenty of time to prepare for this game and the over in Pirates games when playing with a day off is 4-2 this season and an amazing 27-12 the past three seasons combined! Also, Pittsburgh was defeated Saturday by the Rockies and the over is 13-4 this season in Pirates games when they are off of a loss. Pittsburgh's day games are 11-5 to the over this season and the Pirate are hitting .288 at home this season while the Rockies are averaging 5 runs per game overall this season. I just don't see either starter being able to dominate today and that means we can take advantage of a low total here in an afternoon game that should feature plenty of offense. *8* OVER in Pittsburgh |
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05-22-16 | Orioles v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 105 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore @ 3:35 ET - Yesterday's game was a pitchers' duel that came within one pitch of being an Angels 1-0 win. However, with two on and two out in the top of the 9th, the Orioles got a three-run bomb and went on to win 3-1. There is every reason to believe that today's game will play out much differently than yesterday's low-scoring affair. The total on today's game is a 9 with good reason as it will be a mild afternoon with the wind blowing out in Anaheim. The pitching match-up is ideal for a slugfest and the over is a perfect 5-0 this season in Orioles road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, in games where the O's are a small road favorite of up to -125, the over is 4-0 this season! Orioles day games are 7-2 to the over this season. Before yesterday's under, the Angels had been on a 7-2 run to the over and I expect their hot hitting to resume today. Ubaldo Jimenez gets the start for the Orioles and he's given up 11 runs (10 earned) in his last two starts and those outings spanned only 9 and 1/3 innings! Those were both at home for Jimenez whom has also gone 0-2 on the road this season with a 5.73 ERA. Jered Weaver has also struggled in his last two starts for the Angels. The veteran right-hander has gone 0-2 with 12 runs allowed (11 earned) on 19 hits (including FIVE homers!) in only 11 innings of work. The Orioles have averaged 6.5 runs per game in their last 4 road games and the Angels, overall, had averaged 6.2 runs per game in their last 9 games prior to yesterday's tough day at the plate. The Angels stranded 11 men on base yesterday. Look for them to make up for that today as both these starters get rocked on a perfect afternoon for baseball in Anaheim! *10* OVER in LA Angels |
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05-22-16 | Rays v. Tigers OVER 8 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 in Detroit vs Tampa Bay @ 1:10 ET - Chris Archer of the Rays and Jordan Zimmerman of the Tigers are two "big name" pitchers so that is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. The over is an incredible 13-2 in day games in Detroit so far this season and the wind will be blowing out at a good clip on a very pleasant afternoon for baseball. The key to this play is that neither Archer nor Zimmerman are performing that well of late. Zimmerman had the unbelievable beginning to his season this year with a 5-0 record early on. He has since lost 2 of his last 3 as he finally come back down to earth. The Tigers right-hander gave up 8 runs (7 earned) on 11 hits in 7 innings of work against Minnesota in his most recent start. Zimmerman actually got the win in that game despite his rough day on the mound but he lost each of his two prior starts and he's given up 25 hits in the 22 innings spanning these three outings. As for Archer, the Rays are 2-3 in his 5 road starts this season and he's compiled a 6.15 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP. The Tampa Bay right-hander has allowed 7 homers in his 5 road starts. The Rays are on an 8-1-1 run to the over in their last 10 games as their offense is heating up. The Tigers have had just 3 unders in their last 14 games and they are hitting around .300 in their past 7 games! As a small road dog of up to +125, the Rays are going over at a 75% clip so far this season. The over is a perfect 5-0 in Sunday games for the Tigers this season. *8* OVER in Detroit |
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05-21-16 | Indians v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 9 or 9.5 runs in Boston vs Cleveland @ 4:05 ET Saturday - A very mild afternoon is expected in Boston Saturday and the wind is expected to be blowing out. That can help to turn Fenway Park into a "bandbox" that is very favorable for the hitters and that is exactly what I am expecting in Game Two of this series. Helping our cause here (for the over) is this pitching match-up. Joe Kelly gets the start after coming back from a trip to the DL. He went on the DL due to a shoulder impingement. Though he pitched well in the minors in his final rehab start, he certainly hasn't fared well at the big league level this season with a 9.34 ERA in his three early season starts. Also, since coming to Boston, he had a 6.29 ERA in his day game outings in 2014 and a 5.62 ERA in his day games starts last season. This season he's been hit at a .368 clip and I don't see a day game at Fenway Park being a good situation for him to make his first start back. However, at least he should have plenty of run support because the Red Sox offense has been among the best in baseball early this season. Boston should have no trouble with the offerings of Cleveland's Trevor Bauer. They faced him in August here at Fenway Park and got to him for 5 earned runs early and knocked him out of the game in the 2nd inning! Even though Bauer has pitched better early this season, this is still a guy with a career 4.44 ERA and now facing his toughest start so far this year. 3 of his first 4 starts this season (filling in for Carlos Carrasco) have come against three opponents with team batting averages of .235 or less (Philadelphia, Houston, and Minnesota). Now he faces a Boston team hitting nearly .300 on the season. Entering Friday's action the over was 21-11 in Indians games on grass fields this season. The over was also 5-1 in Red Sox home games with a posted total of 9 to 9.5 runs. This total is big for a reason. This should be a slugfest Saturday. *10* OVER in Boston |
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