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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-30-22 | Astros v. Blue Jays OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
*action on pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Saturday 8* OVER 8 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros @ 3:07 ET - These teams were involved in a 11-7 slugfest yesterday. Their prior meeting was an 8-7 game in Houston. The runs will come in big again here. Regardless of the pitchers, I like the over here. But I will mention that Garcia allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings the last time he faced the Blue Jays. Berrios has a 7.37 ERA in his two home starts this season. Houston comes in hot with 4 straight wins and scoring an average of 6 runs in last 5 victories dating back to Sunday. Toronto has been scoring better at home than on the road this season and is averaging a solid 5 runs per game as a host so far. Also, the Blue Jays pen has higher ERA at home than on the road and the Houston bullpen has a higher ERA on the road than at home. Add it all up and it adds up to a lot of runs! 8* OVER 8 in Toronto |
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04-28-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 7 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 9 m | Show |
*action on the pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox @ 3:07 ET - I fully understand the line move but it has gone from an 8 to a 7 and in typical contrarian fashion here I am on the over. The Red Sox got their sticks going with 13 hits yesterday. The Blue Jays typically hit well at home but struggled yesterday and I fully expect them to bounce back here. Toronto is averaging 5 runs per game at home this season. I also am aware of Xander Bogaerts likely being out of the lineup today. Again, this is a contrarian play all the way. I have seen so many times this type of scenario play out and I like the fact the road team scored so well yesterday and brings confidence to the ball park this afternoon and the fact that we have one of the better home hitting teams in the majors ready to bounce back here. No matter who the pitchers are here I like the over but I will mention that Whitlock was fantastic out of the bullpen last season and to start this year but this is still a guy who has only one MLB start under his belt. Also, Manoah is a great starter but his hits allowed have gone from 1 to 4 to 7 in last 3 starts. Again, banking on the bats here to get us over this low total regardless of the pitchers. 10* OVER 7 in Toronto |
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04-26-22 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Early Dominator Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET - Over is 5-2 in last 7 White Sox games and Royals now off B2B overs. Lynch has a horrible history against Chicago including 16.19 ERA in 3 starts last season. Keuchel has struggled in 2 of his last 3 starts versus Kansas City. Chilly weather in Chicago tonight but expected breezes out of northwest could actually help our over as well. Either way, no matter the pitchers here (play it with action), we should see plenty of runs as White Sox starters and relievers have combined to give up 6 or more runs in 5 of last 7 games. Both lineups should get going here as Royals have hit well here in past and ChiSox happy to be back home for sure. 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox |
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04-21-22 | Orioles v. A's OVER 7 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Daytime Dominator Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in Oakland A's vs Baltimore Orioles @ 3:37 ET - This is a contrarian play all the way as the O/U in Orioles games is 0-11-1 so far this season. However, Blackburn struggled last season with Oakland and with the AAA club in Vegas. He was hit hard in both places and I am just not sold on him yet. Yes, he has a low ERA so far this season but it is still early and I expect him to struggle in his first home start of the season. The Orioles send Wells to the mound and he got rocked in his only road start his season. That said, Oakland was averaging 5 runs scored per game before yesterday's shutout loss and I expect a bounce back at the plate here. No matter who pitches here, this is a play for me, I love taking overs off a 1-0 game and that was the final score in yesterday's Baltimore win. The bats will wake up this afternoon and this one flies over the low total in my opinion. Finally, an over in an Orioles game. It happens this afternoon. 10* OVER 7 in Oakland |
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04-19-22 | Cardinals v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Early Dominator Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Miami Marlins vs St Louis Cardinals @ 6:40 ET - Regardless of the starting pitchers in this match-up, I do like the over. The over is 6-2 in Cardinals games so far this season. Also, the Marlins have won 3 of 4 games and confidence is building as they have scored an average of 6 runs per game in these 4 games. The scheduled pitchers are Wainwright and Luzardo. The Cardinals veteran right-hander Wainwright has a history of pitching brilliantly at home and struggling on the road and that has continued this season. The Marlins lefty just struck out a dozen in only 5 innings in his first start this season. Watch him come back down to earth here. St Louis is scoring an average of 5.4 runs per game this season and even though each of these teams have good bullpen numbers too, this total is just too low and I love the fact we were seeing lines as high as 8.5 runs before now seeing this drop a full run from the earliest openers. 10* OVER 7.5 in Miami |
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04-18-22 | Pirates v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Divisional Rout Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:40 ET - Brewers expected to start Lauer and he allowed 3 earned runs in 4 and 1/3 innings in his first start this season. Pirates expected to start Thompson here and he took a comebacker off his throwing shoulder in most recent start. Also, he allowed 5 hits in 4 innings in that outing. Regardless of the starting pitchers here, note that the Pirates bullpen has a 5.14 ERA on the road this season and the Brewers, known for pitching, actually have a rather unimpressive bullpen ERA of 3.93 at home so far this season. Now, about the bats in this one, the Pirates have actually won back to back games and 5 of their last 7 games. Pittsburgh has averaged 7 runs per game in those 5 victories! The Brewers are off a much-needed win and have now won 5 of 8 games and scored an average of 5 runs per game in those 5 victories. I know this is a bit of a contrarian play as neither lineup is crushing the ball early this season but I look for each club to build off their respective wins yesterday and the lineups will enjoy success in a game in which I expect the roof will be closed there and teams playing in a controlled environment as it is actually snowing in Milwaukee this morning. 10* OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee |
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04-15-22 | A's v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Early Dominator Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland A's @ 7:07 ET - Look for the Blue Jays to bounce back at home here after a shutout loss in the Bronx yesterday to wrap up their series with the Yankees. Toronto has looked like a different team when at home early this season with the way they are swinging the bats at Rogers Centre. That said, I look for a ton of runs in this one because Oakland also has been a surprise at the plate early this season. The A's confidence at the plate is up right now as a result and I expect them to pound the ball here. Like both of these lineups no matter who the pitchers are they are facing but I will mention the expected starters are Jefferies and Stripling. The Athletics Jefferies has made only 3 MLB starts and is not a strikeout guy so the Jays will be putting the ball in play here! The Blue Jays Stripling has struggled each of the last two seasons and this would be his first start this season but already he has 3 walks and no strikeouts in his 2 appearances out of the pen this season. No matter the pitchers they are facing a confident A's lineup and a Jays lineup already impressing at home early this season and hungry to bounce back off a road shutout loss. 10* OVER 9.5 in Toronto |
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04-15-22 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Divisional Dominator Friday 9* Top Play OVER 9 in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - As always the starting pitchers are not the only key. I will mention however that Montgomery is the slated starter for the Yankees and he struggled a bit in his first start this season plus took a comebacker off the left leg which, as a southpaw, is the leg he pushes off with. He did get hit quite hard in his outings at Baltimore last season. The Orioles are expected to start Lyles here and he had a tough first outing and this is nothing new as he has not impressed in recent years with an 11-20 combined mark since start of 2020 and a very high ERA. Yankees can take advantage of facing an Orioles pitching staff that is overall not that strong but took advantage of facing a slumping Rays lineup and a sub-par Brewers lineup to open up the season with some success. Look for the potent Yankees lineup to do some damage here. The Orioles faced some tough pitching to open the season but they now take advantage of a team and pitching staff they are more familiar with as this series gets underway Friday and the weather will be good here for this one too. 9* OVER 9 in Baltimore |
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04-14-22 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Network Dominator Thursday 10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - Many books, including the BIG ones here in Vegas where I live will NOT even let you list pitchers on a game. My preference is that for sure. In other words, try to always place your wagers at books that are all action whether money line, run line, or total. My write-ups often include information about the scheduled pitchers but, the fact is my plays are based on much more than just the starting pitchers. In this case, the Jays are expected to start Kevin Gausman and the Yankees are expected to start Luis Severino. Both these guys are quality starters but both guys combined stats from there first starts make for an unimpressive stat line as they combined for 5 earned runs allowed on 13 hits in 8 innings. I know some rain and cooler air moving into the Bronx tonight and could even delay the start of this contest. However, I still expect plenty of pop from the bats in this one after they combined for a lot of extra base hits and 10 runs in yesterday's game. If we get each team to 4 runs in this one it guarantees us at least a 5-4 final and each of these teams has scored at least 4 runs in 4 of their 6 games. You can see why I like the odds for this one to get over the low total of 8.5 runs. Lets keep the rain away and look for another huge game from Vladimir Guerrero as he proved the finger injury yesterday was no big deal with a huge performance at the plate. Getting his stick going a great sign for Toronto and the Yankees should get to at least 4 runs for a 3rd straight game! 10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees |
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04-10-22 | Astros v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Total of the Week Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros @ 4:07 ET - Many books, including the BIG ones here in Vegas where I live will NOT even let you list pitchers on a game. My preference is that for sure. In other words, try to always place your wagers at books that are all action whether money line, run line, or total. I will talk about the scheduled pitchers but, the fact is my plays are based on much more than just the pitchers. Two low-scoring grinders in this series including Saturday's pitchers duel but in between was a wild 13-6 Astros win. Scoring is down early this season as is so often the case as it takes awhile for the bats to wake up and weather can be bad in some MLB cities. However, weather will be just fine in Anaheim and this total was set as high as a 10 in some books with good reason. Urquidy scheduled to start for Astros here and he got roughed up in his last September start in Anaheim and this Angels team certainly has a potent lineup. LA starts Suarez here and his team is 1-4 in his career starts against the Astros which comes as no surprise given his 5.95 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in starts against Houston in his career. 4th straight game for these teams against each other to open the season so they are familiar with the relievers too and the bats are going to be the story this afternoon like they were on Friday. 10* OVER 9.5 in LA Angels |
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11-02-21 | Braves v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:09 ET - The Astros are off a 9-5 win Sunday and Houston's games have trended over throughout this post-season. With Luis Garcia struggling in 3 of his 4 playoff outings and Max Fried coming in off back to back sub-par post-season outings (plus being hit quite hard in the one that preceded those two), I am looking for the bats to be the story in this one on Tuesday. 10* OVER 8.5 in Houston |
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10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
P/O Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros @ 8:09 ET - I know it will be chilly with some showers around for this one Friday evening in Atlanta but I still the bats are going to rule the night in this match-up. Luis Garcia is off a strong start for the Astros but had been struggling. Ian Anderson has pitched well but now the young pitcher is making his World Series debut and he faces a red hot Astros lineup that continues to pile up runs. Houston has been on a big run to the over throughout this post-season no matter who the pitchers have been on the mound and I look for that trend to continue here. Regardless of the pitching match-up here I am betting the over in game 3 here as the Astros have scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in last dozen games and I don't see Atlanta's bats being held quiet at home in this one either. The Braves had scored an average of 5 runs per game in the 8 games preceding the 7-2 loss Wednesday. Bounce back time here but Houston scores plenty also. 10* OVER 8.5 in Atlanta |
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10-27-21 | Braves v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:09 ET - The Braves Max Fried has great numbers on the year but has been quite hittable in his last two appearances. Jose Urquidy has hardly pitched in this post-season for the Astros and his lone appearance was an ugly one against the Red Sox. Yesterday's game totaled 20 hits but stayed just under the total despite the game having 6 runs in very early. I feel this is helping give us some line value with this total in Game 2 of the series. Keep in mind, both teams are now off back to back unders but this was preceded by hot over streaks for each of these teams! Look for the over trending to resume in a big way here in Game 2 of this series on Wednesday night. 10* OVER 8.5 in Houston |
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10-22-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:08 ET - 8 straight Red Sox games have totaled 9 or more runs. Eovaldi was not overly dominant in his start against the Astros in this series and then he struggled out of the bullpen against them. Garcia has struggled badly for Houston this post-season. Given that factor plus the fact that Boston's last 8 games have averaged 12.5 runs and Houston's last 8 games have averaged 12.6 runs per game, I look for another slugfest here. 10* OVER 9 in Houston |
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10-20-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros @ 5:08 ET - I know yesterday's game had no business going over the total. Boston was up 2-1 after 1 inning and it stayed that way until Houston tied it at 2 in the top of the 8th and then exploded for 7 runs in the top of the 9th. However, deserved or not, it did go over the total and continued the incredible high-scoring trending for both of these teams. Now, after plenty of bullpen arms have been used and exposed in this series too, I am looking for another high-scoring game Wednesday. I really do not care who the starting pitchers are as I expect the Astros bats to build off yesterday's huge rallying win and I expect the Red Sox bats to bounce back at home after a disappointing effort yesterday. The scheduled starters are Framber Valdez and Chris Sale and both southpaws are having a rough time thus far in this post-season. More of the same expected in Wednesday's Game 5 as well as both lineups pound whoever is on the mound in this one and the high-scoring trending continues. 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston |
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10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros @ 8:08 ET - The Red Sox and Astros both continue to score runs like crazy. The over trending likely to continue even though it will be a chilly evening at Fenway Park for this one. Boston averaging 7.8 runs per game last 5 games. Houston averaging 6.8 runs per game last 6 games. Expected pitching match-up here is Jose Urquidy versus Eduardo Rodriguez but I am not concerned with who the pitchers are. Both lineups red hot and the runs keep piling up. Going to continue to ride the over trend as long as it keeps going for these teams. I do not see that changing here. 10* OVER 9 in Boston |
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10-16-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox @ 4:20 ET - Same thing as yesterday and though it took a 9th inning run to push that one over the total it should not have come down to that as both teams reached double digits in hits. As shown in yesterday's write-up: "Would recommend playing this at a sports book that gives you action on totals wagers. I just do not care who the starting pitchers are in this one. This match-up features two very hot lineups. Boston has scored 6.3 runs per game last 7 games. Houston has scored 7.7 runs per game last 7 games. The posted total on this game is 8 runs (8.5 today) and we are talking about American League baseball here so there are designated hitters too instead of the pitchers having to bat. It is simply a high value spot here no matter who the starting pitchers are..." but I will mention that it is expected to be Nathan Eovaldi for Boston and Luis Garcia for Houston. Eovaldi has been great but did get hit hard and rocked by Astros when he faced them this season. Garcia got hammered in his only post-season start thus far. More of the same here. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Houston |
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10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:07 ET - Would recommend playing this at a sports book that gives you action on totals wagers. I just do not care who the starting pitchers are in this one. This match-up features two very hot lineups. Boston has scored 6.3 runs per game last 7 games. Houston has scored 7.7 runs per game last 7 games. The posted total on this game is 8 runs and we are talking about American League baseball here so there are designated hitters too instead of the pitchers having to bat. It is simply a high value spot here no matter who the starting pitchers are but I will mention that it is expected to be Chris Sale for Boston and Framber Valdez for Houston. Sale has been enduring a horrible stretch and Valdez has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts. 10* OVER 8 runs in Houston |
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10-11-21 | Brewers v. Braves OVER 8 | 0-3 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Monday 8* OVER 8 runs in Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 1 ET - This is one of those games where it sure looks like someone knows something. Each of the first two games have totaled only 3 runs apiece. This total opened up at a 7.5 but moved to an 8 despite that fact. So, what gives? Well the fact is both Freddy Peralta and Ian Anderson could be a bit rusty here as it has been awhile since either has taken to the mound. Also, Anderson has had more walks than strikeouts in 4 of his last 7 starts so he has been a bit inconsistent. In Anderson's 11 home starts this season only 2 have resulted in unders. As for Peralta, he allowed 7 earned runs in 11 and 1/3 innings in his final two starts of the regular season. Look for this to play out surprisingly different from the first two games in this series. The Brewers have been one of the best road teams in the majors this year and will hit well here but the Braves answer them run for run at home in this one. 8* OVER 8 runs in Atlanta |
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10-10-21 | Astros v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #933 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros @ 8:07 ET - The Astros have won 4 straight games and the over is 4-1 in their last 5 games as Houston has scored at least 6 runs in all five games. That said, we are working with a generously low number here. Dylan Cease starts for the White Sox and he has a 9.00 ERA this season in starts against the Astros. Luis Garcia starts for Houston and he has a 4.24 ERA in road starts this season plus got rocked in his final start of the regular season even though that was at home. The White Sox have lost 3 straight games now but this was preceded by a 6-game winning streak in which they scored at least 5 runs in all six games. Look for the White Sox to bounce back at home where they are scoring much better of late than how they played in first two games of this series at Houston. However, Cease will not be able to slow down this hot Astros offense. The result? High-scoring slug-fest in this one. 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox |
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10-09-21 | Braves v. Brewers OVER 7 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #925 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves @ 5:07 ET - Yesterday both ALDS match-ups went over the total in their respective Game 2 spots after the Game 1 match-ups each stayed under the total. Do not be surprised if we see something similar with the NLDS match-ups today. However, the only one I am comfortable with playing on Saturday is the earlier match-up in Milwaukee. I know Max Fried has fantastic numbers to close out the season but look for the long layoff to lead to some rust here. That goes for Brandon Woodruff as well. Also, Woodruff allowed 7 hits in 4 innings in his final start of the regular season and allowed 8 hits in 5 and 1/3 innings in his only start against the Braves this season. Again, I know Fried had a very strong finish to the season but I like overs in spots like this as the home team has a pitcher likely to struggle a bit and yet their lineup, comfy at home, should do some damage. This line opened up at a 7.5 for a reason and the drop to a 7 has led to value in this spot. 10* OVER 7 in Milwaukee |
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10-08-21 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 14-6 | Win | 107 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:07 ET - The Rays scored 5 runs in yesterday's win. Though the Red Sox were shutout they did have 9 hits in the game. I am expecting Boston to bounce back at the plate today but also expect the Rays to fare well again too! This is regardless of the pitchers. I like playing overs from a "team standpoint" when a good hitting team like the Red Sox is coming off a loss. But lets talk about these pitchers as well. Chris Sale has faced the Rays twice recently and he is lucky the earned run damage was not worse as he did get hit hard. Overall he finished the season a bit "off" as he just was not on his game and had a 4.98 ERA his last 3 starts. As for Shane Baz, the rookie has impressed but this is still a new experience for him here as he pitches now in an MLB playoff setting. Baz has only been in the bigs for a few weeks now! I feel it catches up with him here in a huge playoff game against a tough Red Sox lineup coming off a shutout loss. At the same time though, he should get plenty of run support as Sale has allowed 16 hits in less than 10 innings spanning his two starts against the Rays this season and both were in the month of September too! That means Tampa Bay very familiar with his offerings. 10* OVER 7.5 runs in Tampa Bay |
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10-03-21 | Indians v. Rangers OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Texas vs Cleveland @ 3:05 ET - I understand the low total here because Dunning has good numbers at home this season. However, with yesterday's 7-2 Rangers win, both these teams are on solid over trends and Dunning does enter this game in poor numbers looking at his last 3 starts. He has allowed 13 hits and 7 walks in 12 innings of work. Yes those outings were on the road but I am not expecting sudden magic at home for him and he is facing an Indians team that had been averaging 6.4 runs per game last 5 games prior to yesterday's 7-2 loss. As for Rangers sticks, they have averaged 5.5 runs last 8 games and face a struggling Civale. The Indians right-hander has allowed 11 earned runs in 7 innings in his last two starts and given up 6 longballs in those two outings. This one should easily get over the low total. 10* OVER 7.5 in Texas |
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10-02-21 | A's v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Houston Astros vs Oakland A's @ 7:10 ET - Yesterday's game exploded for 14 runs and I am expecting more of the same today. Not only did we see some bullpen implosion yesterday, both of these starters are likely to struggle. The Astros Jake Odorizzi has not lasted long in recent starts and the over is 6-3 in his home starts this season. The A's Paul Blackburn has a 5.79 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP on the road this season. These pitchers just matched up last week and that helps the hitters here as they see them immediately again and neither pitcher was overly dominant. I know Blackburn was better than Odorizzi but he still recorded only 1 strikeout in the 5-inning start and now faces the Astros in their own park. Houston still trying to hang onto the #2 seed in the AL for the post-season but the A's have averaged 5 runs a game last 7 games and will work to play the role of spoiler here but the Astros bats answer the call too as the over improves to 12-6 in the 18 games between these teams this season. 10* OVER 9 in Houston |
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10-01-21 | Red Sox v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
IL Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - The Red Sox dropped yesterday game but this was preceded by an 8-4 stretch in which they scored an average of 8 runs per game in the 8 victories. Boston is still battling hard for a wild card spot and I expect them to score plenty here. They'll need all the runs they can get because Washington is off a 10-5 loss but it marked the 7th time in last 10 games that they have scored 5 or more runs! The Nationals Josh Rogers got hit hard in his most recent start plus had control issues with more walks than strikeouts. Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has a 4.93 ERA this season and is facing a Nats lineup that has hit lefties well. More of the same expected here and taking advantage of the low total in this one. 10* OVER 9 runs in Washington |
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09-30-21 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels @ 2:05 ET - Yesterday's 7-2 Angels win snuck over the total to improve the over to 6-3 in the last 9 Los Angeles games. Look for today's to fly over the total much more easily. The over is 3-1 in Rangers last 4 games against a right-handed starter and they should pound Cobb in this one. The Angels righty has a 4.99 ERA in road starts this season and the over is 11-6 in all his starts this season. The Rangers counter with Otto on the bump for this one and he is 0-3 with an 8.02 ERA in his 5 starts this season and is off a decent start versus Baltimore but this followed getting absolutely destroyed in the two starts just prior to that. Otto gets pounded here again but look for Cobb to have major problems too. The Rangers had won 3 of 4 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs per game before struggling yesterday so I look for them to get back on track in a big way this afternoon and both teams enjoy plenty of success at the plate. 10* OVER 8.5 in Texas |
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09-30-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in St Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 1:15 ET - The Cardinals winning streak ended yesterday but this was after 17 straight wins. St Louis averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this stretch. Look for bounce back at plate today for Cardinals. The Brewers were on a 4-2 run to the over before yesterday's low-scoring shutout win. St Louis was on a 6-1 run to the over before the shutout loss. The hitters bounce back today as Brett Anderson has a 5.87 ERA and ridiculous 2.22 WHIP last 3 starts. JA Happ is coming back down to earth after a strong run as he has allowed 11 baserunners in 8 innings his last two starts and is not working deep into games. This is still a guy with a 5.86 ERA on the season and the Brewers fully relaxed at the plate as their playoff position is locked in. The Cardinals also locked into their wild card spot. Look for the hitters to excel in this one and that is even if a few of the regular rest which I am well aware of that potential. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in St Louis |
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09-29-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - The Red Sox had just 3 hits in yesterday's game. Now they face a pitcher they have crushed to the tune of a 15.90 ERA in his two starts against them this season. Not only that but Zac Lowther has struggled overall in his starts this season with his most recent one (albeit versus a bad Texas lineup) being a rare exception. Boston entered yesterday's game scoring an average of nearly 7 runs per game last 9 games so look for a big bounce back here. The Sox will need all the runs they can get to because I do expect Nathan Eovaldi to struggle as well. The Orioles just recently faced Eovaldi and got to him for 3 earned runs on 7 hits in just 5 innings and now they face him in Baltimore where their home slugging percentage ranks among the best in the majors. Eovaldi has allowed 10 earned runs in less than 8 innings over his last two starts and the over is a perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts. Look for that trend to continue here. 10* OVER 9.5 runs in Baltimore |
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09-29-21 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 12 runs in Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals @ 3:10 ET - Yesterday's game totaled only 4 runs. The posted total on this one opened up at 12.5 and has dropped to a 12 and I am looking for a much different result today as both lineups explode. This is Espino's first ever start at Coors Field. The Nationals are an ugly 1-6 in his road starts and he has a 5.90 ERA away from home. Lambert is making just his 2nd start of the season and he was a bit shaky in the first one last week. This included giving up 2 homers in less than 4 innings of work. Lambert is now 3-7 with a 7.16 ERA in his 20 career MLB starts. Opponents have hit .319 against him in his MLB career which includes his 19 starts for the Rockies in 2019. Two starting pitchers likely to struggle and neither bullpen has been a strength this season. 10* OVER 12 runs in Colorado |
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09-28-21 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 6:35 ET - The Pirates had been scoring runs like crazy and the over is 6-3 in their last 9 games. Prior to yesterday's ugly 13-1 loss the Pirates had scored 5 or more runs in 7 of 8 games. Also consider that this is a late season match-up between two teams just playing out the string. No playoff pressure so the hitters on each club can be fully relaxed and that is bad news for a pair of starters likely to struggle. I really would not care who starts here because will mention that the Cubs are off an under but this followed 10 straight overs! The fact is both of these clubs have been getting involved in plenty of high-scoring action of late no matter who is on the mound. Now I will touch on the pitchers as Alec Mills has been rocked in each of his last two starts overall and also has really struggled against the Pirates with 7 homers allowed in 3 starts and all have been in past 13 months! As for Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller, he is 2-8 with a 7.76 ERA in his 13 home starts this season! Both teams continue the over trending in this one. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Pittsburgh |
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09-27-21 | Royals v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals @ 1:10 ET - Jackson Kowar is the expected starter for the Royals here and he is 0-4 with an 11.45 ERA. Cal Quantrill has great numbers for the Indians but he just faced Kansas City last week and that could be a problem here. They have hit him decently this season (including 3 homers in 2 starts) plus are now getting a quick second look at him after having just seen him. Also, this total went from a 9 to a 9.5 and given the recent under stretch for the Royals I believe this is a sign of sharp money funneling in on the over in this one. My money is going to be on it as well. Yes the Indians game stayed under yesterday but the teams combined for 23 hits! That's ridiculous. Also ridiculous was the Royals having only 2 runs on 10 hits in their game yesterday. This game makes up for yesterday as the situation is ideal. 10* OVER 9.5 runs in Cleveland |
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09-26-21 | Royals v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals @ 12:10 ET - Both these starting pitchers have some good recent numbers and I know that each of these teams have been trending under of late. However, yesterday's game had 18 hits but only 6 runs and I have reason to believe these pitchers get rocked here. Peralta allowed 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings when he last started against the Royals two weeks ago. Bubic has a 1.79 WHIP in his 3 career starts against the Tigers so he is lucky his ERA against them is not even higher. Speaking of high ERA numbers, Bubic now starts at Detroit for the first time in his career and he has a 5.68 ERA on the road this season. Each of his last two road starts stayed under but this followed the over going 6-2 in Bubic's first 8 road starts this season. That type of trending resumes here. 10* OVER 9 in Detroit |
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09-25-21 | Astros v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Oakland - The A's off a 14-2 win yesterday and the over is now a perfect 8-0 in meetings between these teams at Oakland this season. Overall the Astros have had only 2 unders last dozen games so no matter who is on the mound here I am playing the over in this game. Take action on pitchers if you can. I will mention the pitchers here but the hot bats should continue no matter what in this one. The Astros averaging 7 runs last dozen games. The Athletics averaging 5.5 runs last dozen games. Houston starter Valdez has had the over go 3-0 in his last 3 starts. His last one was a good one but he allowed 4 earned runs in each of his two starts preceding that one. Valdez also allowed 5 earned runs in his only start against Oakland this season. The A's Sean Manaea enters this start struggling with an 8.10 ERA in his last two starts. The Astros tee off on the lefty here as they are #1 in the AL in both batting average and on base percentage against lefties on the season. Look for the over to reach 9-0 on the season in games between these teams at the Coliseum. 10* OVER 8 runs in Oakland |
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09-24-21 | Rangers v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers @ 7:05 ET - I know the Rangers have a bad lineup and the Orioles, though decent, are not exactly juggernauts at the plate even when at home. However, no matter who pitches here I am expecting a slugfest tonight at Camden Yards. The Orioles bullpen on the season has been one of the worst in the league. The Rangers bullpen tends to struggle more on the road than at home. After yesterday's unusual 3-0 game, look for normalcy to return tonight and both teams swing the bats extremely well. The Orioles are expected to start Wells here and he is winless with an 8.65 ERA in his 3 starts this season. The Rangers are expected to start Howard here and he is winless with a 6.50 ERA as a starter this season plus has an ugly 8.53 ERA in his last 3 starts. Wells has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts so Texas should do some damage at the plate here. As for the Orioles, their slugging percentage in home games this season ranks 3rd in the AL behind the Red Sox and Blue Jays. That is impressive company to say the least and I expect the O's to have some solid success at the plate tonight. 10* OVER 9 in Baltimore |
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09-23-21 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 7 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Cleveland (Gm 1 of DH) - Wind blowing out at a strong clip for this one. Civale rocked for 7 earned runs in 3 innings in most recent home start. Lopez rocked for 6 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start. The over is 6-3 in Civale home starts this season. 3 of 4 meetings between these teams at Cleveland this season have gone over the total. White Sox game on Tuesday had just 8 runs scored on 28 hits in a ridiculous under. Look for this one to make up for that as the pitching match-up is ideal. Plus, no matter the pitchers here, even though the temperature will be cool, the winds will help us in this one. The ball will carry well and Lopez gave up 2 homers in most recent start and Civale gave up 3 homers in last home start. 10* OVER 7 runs in Cleveland (Gm 1 of DH) |
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09-22-21 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals @ 6:40 ET - The Marlins Elieser Hernandez is off a start in which he shut out the Pirates. However, he did not make it out of the 6th inning and he walked 5 in that start while striking out just 3. Hernandez was a bit fortunate to say the least and I feel he will not be so fortunate in this one! The Nationals are just 4-5 last 9 games but have scored 6 or more runs in 7 of last 10 games. Washington should get the job done again at the plate tonight and keep in mind they did a lot of damage against the Miami bullpen last night too. As for the Marlins lineup, look for much more success today in comparison with yesterday. The Marlins will take advantage of facing Josiah Gray in this one. The over is 3-0 in his last 3 start as Gray has a 10.80 ERA during this stretch and allowed at least 5 earned runs in each outing! The over is 5-1-1 in Marlins last 7 games and they have scored 6 or more runs in each of their last two games against a right-handed starter. 10* OVER 8 in Miami |
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09-21-21 | Mets v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox start Eduardo Rodriguez in this one. The right-hander is off a strong road start but got hammered in his prior start which was at home. This comes as no surprise as Rodriguez has struggled at Fenway Park consistently this season. Rodriguez has a 6.32 ERA at home this season. Marcus Stroman gets the start for the Mets in this one. Certainly Stroman has pitched well but he is facing a big test here at Fenway Park. Boston has the #1 batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage in the American League in home games this season. The Mets generally don't fare as well at the plate but facing Rodriguez certainly should help in that regard. New York is coming off a rough homestand but has scored 6 or more runs in 5 of last 9 road games. The Red Sox have been red hot at home and have won 14 of 20 games there and averaged 7.8 runs scored per game during this stretch. This is why, regardless of the pitching match-up in this one (make this wager with ACTION on the pitchers if you can), I do like the over. The trending at Fenway Park has been big for overs. 11 of the last 14 games in Boston have totaled 11 or more runs and we just need 10 to cash our ticket in this one. We have strong odds on that in my opinion. 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston |
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09-21-21 | White Sox v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
MLB Tuesday 8* OVER 9.5 in Detroit @ 1:10 ET - Over is 5-1 in Tyler Alexander's home starts this season. Over is 2-0 in Dallas Keuchel's starts versus Tigers this season. Keuchel got rocked in his lone start at Detroit this season. Alexander has allowed 21 hits in 13 innings over his last 3 starts against the White Sox and compiled a 6.92 ERA in those outings. Yesterday's game stayed under and I know these teams have trended under of late. However, this pitching match-up is conducive to an over plus it is a day game. Look for bats to rule the day in this one. 8* OVER 9.5 in Detroit |
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09-20-21 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 101 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
MLB Monday MLB 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Miami - Late season match-ups between two teams that are simply looking to finish out a sub-par year are the types of situations I like to look at for overs. There is no playoff pressure. The hitters come to the plate relaxed. That said, when you have a pitching match-up that should be conducive to an over in a spot like this, it is time to pull the trigger. I know the Nats Fedde has been strong against the Marlins this season but the over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts and this is still a guy who has a 5.16 ERA on the year. Miami catching him at home and seeing him for the 3rd time in 4 weeks absolutely should lead to some success at the plate in this one. At the same time, Luzardo is going up against Washington in a similar situation - 3rd time in 4 weeks - and the Nationals have been hitting him hard. Luzardo has a 6.37 ERA on the season in his 15 starts and the over is 10-5 in those outings. More of the same here as he has a 9.00 ERA against the Nats this season and also the Marlins get their fair share of runs at home in this one too. 10* OVER 8.5 in Miami |
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09-17-21 | Mariners v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
NOTE: Jon Heasley, called up from AA Northwest Arkansas is now expected to get the start for the Royals in this one as Brady Singer was placed on the injured list. As noted in my original write-up, I do not care who pitches here. This is a TOP PLAY OVER no matter who the starting pitchers are: MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Kansas City - The Royals burned me last night as the over 9.5 totaled just 9 runs and cost me a 5-0 sweep. We should get some payback right here coming right back with the over. This time Kansas City is hosting the Mariners. Note that Seattle is entering this game on run of 12-0 to the over their last dozen games. No matter who pitches here I look for the over to cash in this game so try to play this at a sports book that does not list pitchers on totals. The Mariners have scored an average of 5.3 runs per game last dozen games. The Royals, prior to last night's 7-2 loss to the A's, had scored an average of 6 runs per game last dozen games. This is why pitchers are not so important even on totals. How hot a lineup is really matters and both these teams, last night notwithstanding for KC, have been getting the job done in that regard. The expected starters, again I do not care who starts, are Flexen and Singer. Note that Flexen has a 5.40 ERA in last 3 starts and the over is 10-2 in his road starts this season. Singer is 4-10 with a 4.85 ERA this season and just got rocked in his most recent start. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER 9 in Kansas City |
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09-17-21 | Indians v. Yankees OVER 9 | 0-8 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
MLB Friday 8* OVER 9 in New York Yankees - This total opened up at a 10 and the betting masses have said no no no that is all wrong and the total has moved down to a 9. Long-time followers know I love taking advantage of the added value in spots like this. Just as noted in my other write-ups in MLB I do not care who pitches here. Looking at a couple of keys here. The over is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 games played in New York whether they were at home or facing the cross-town Mets. After a surprisingly low-scoring series with the Orioles at Baltimore, look for normalcy to resume here. Also, the over is 4-2 in the Indians last 6 road games. Now I will touch on the pitchers though I do not care who starts here. Plesac has pitched better of late but Cleveland is 13-7 to the over in his starts this season and he has a 4.74 ERA in road starts this year. The over is 3-0 in Kluber's last 3 starts and he has an 8.48 ERA in those outings. Now he starts against his former team for the first time and he'll try to overthrow and he is already in poor form. You know what happens then! As for Plesac he got rocked in his only career start in the Bronx. This turns into a slugfest. Grab the value with this line move really benefiting us too. 8* OVER 9 in NY Yankees |
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09-16-21 | Angels v. White Sox OVER 8 | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
MLB 8* OVER 8 in Chicago White Sox - Alex Cobb expected back off injured list for this one to get the start for the Angels. The over is 10-5 in his starts this season and he has a 5.71 ERA on the road this season. Also, Cobb is 0-3 with a 10.70 ERA in his 4 career starts versus Chicago. The White Sox are expected to start Reynaldo Lopez here. The right-hander has good season numbers in his limited action but he has been a little off of late for sure as he has a 4.85 ERA his last 3 starts. Also, Lopez has been charged with at least 4 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts versus the Angels. Regardless of the pitching match-up here, I like the over in this match-up as there had been just 3 unders in the last dozen games between these teams heading into yesterday's game. 8* OVER 8 in Chicago White Sox |
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09-16-21 | A's v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City - The Royals scored 10 yesterday but it still was not enough as the A's scored a dozen! However, it did mark the 2nd straight day that Kansas City reached the double digit mark in runs scored. The Royals have scored an average of 6 runs per game last dozen games! The A's are averaging 7.5 runs scored in their last 8 road games. This is why, no matter who pitches here, I like the over in this match-up. The starters are expected to be Blackburn and Lynch and I will mention their numbers here but, again, no matter who pitches I like the over based on the hot sticks in these two lineups. Blackburn is 0-2 with 7.00 ERA in his two road starts this season and he has been hit hard in each of his last two starts and one of those was at home. Lynch has 6.83 ERA at home this season and he has been hammered in each of his last two starts and one of those was on the road. The point is these guys getting rocked everywhere of late but their home/road splits also show the value with this play. Look for a pair of red hot lineups to lead the way to an easy over again here. 10* OVER 9.5 in Oakland |
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09-15-21 | Red Sox v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Seattle - The over is now 11-0 in Seattle's last 11 games. The Mariners bullpen helped the cause again last night in an 8-4 final that included plenty of late scoring. Getting an 8.5 on this total is a great value. The rather low total is because Marco Gonzales is on the mound for the Mariners. Yes he does have decent overall numbers but he has allowed 16 homers in his 11 home starts this season and has a 5.87 ERA in his 3 career starts against the Red Sox. The over is 7-4 in Boston's last 11 games and the Red Sox have scored an average of 5.5 runs during this stretch. They build off last night's 8-4 win with another strong performance at the plate here. The issue for Boston however will be their own starting pitching situation. Tanner Houck is winless in his 11 starts this season and has a 4.86 ERA in his road starts. He has been roughed up in his last two road starts plus has had 7 walks against just 4 strikeouts in those outings. That does not bode well for him here as the Mariners have averaged 5.4 runs per game during their 11-game over streak. Look for that run to reach a perfect dozen this afternoon! 11-0 L11 and another one expected here. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Seattle |
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09-15-21 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
8* OVER 8.5 in Washington - Trevor Rogers has solid full season numbers but a 5.84 ERA in his last 3 starts as he is fading here late in the season. He faces the Nationals for the 3rd time this season and Washington is off an 8-2 win in yesterday's game and keeps the sticks going today. The thing is I don't trust the Nats Josh Rogers here now a sub-par Washington bullpen here so the play is the over. Josh Rogers is off a start in which he allowed 8 hits while striking out only 1. He only gave up 2 earned runs so some credit given to him for that but he was not missing a whole lot of bats and it catches up with him here in this day game. 8*OVER 8.5 in Washington |
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09-14-21 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
MLB 10* OVER 9 in Baltimore - Yes Gerrit Cole is on the mound for the Yankees but that is keeping this total lower than it would otherwise be. The Orioles pitching situation is such a mess. Baltimore expected to start Alexander Wells here but really it never matters who the Orioles start because their pitching staff is such a mess including a league-worst bullpen. There has been only one under in Baltimore's last 6 games and they have allowed an average of 10 runs per game during this stretch. The Orioles have just 2 unders last 9 games have scored at least 6 runs in 6 of those 9 games so they have been hitting decently and are known for hitting better when at home. Wells has a 7.94 ERA in his 4 starts this season and just faced the Yankees and got rocked. The over is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 games and New York has allowed an average of 7 runs per game last 9 games! In other words, their bullpen has not been overly sharp of late and, as noted above, the Orioles bullpen has been a train-wreck. Yankees have scored at least 6 runs in 3 straight games and stay hot here. 10* OVER 9 in Baltimore |
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09-14-21 | Indians v. Twins OVER 6.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
MLB 8* OVER 6.5 in Minnesota (Gm 1 of DH) - This is a contrarian play all the way. I know McKenzie just shut down the Twins. I know Ryan just shut down the Indians. But now these lineups get a quick second look. Also, in McKenzie's two prior starts against the Twins he allowed 11 earned runs in less than 8 innings of work combined! Ryan is a rookie and this will be first time a team gets to see him a 2nd time and it is in consecutive starts. I have seen this be a big factor before and am expecting that to be the case here. Plus McKenzie gets rocked like he did in his last start in Minneapolis. 8* OVER 6.5 in Minnesota (Game 1) |
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09-13-21 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 15-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
10* Top Play OVER 9 in Texas - The Rangers Spencer Howard, former Phillie, has made 11 starts this season and has not won any of them. Amazingly he has trended under this season but that has truly kept him under the radar in terms of his poor performance and the fact that we should see some overs the rest of the year with him. Why? Well Howard has a 5.69 ERA this season and has been particularly poor at home with a 9.45 ERA as a host this season. He'll be opposed by Jake Odorizzi in this one. The Astros right-hander has seen the over go 12-7-1 in his starts this season and with both teams off unders yesterday (despite Rangers having 11 hits) I feel we have some value with this total posted at just 9 runs. Texas has had a disappointing season but they have been surprisingly competitive late in the year. The Rangers have been relegated to playing for next year so to speak but have won 9 of last 13 in that role. Texas has averaged 5 runs per game during this stretch. As for the Astros, they are off back to back low-scoring games but this was preceded by a stretch of 4 straight overs and Houston averaged scoring 7.8 runs during this 4-game stretch. They are sure to get going again at the plate as they face a struggling Howard here. The decent recent hitting for each club is why I really don't care who the starting pitchers are as I look for the over to improve to 10-6 in what is now the 16th game between these in-state rivals this season. 10* OVER 9 in Texas |
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09-13-21 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 10 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
8* OVER 10 in New York Yankees - No matter who pitches here I like the over. The over is a perfect 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 games. The Yankees are expected to start Luis Gil. He has walked 11 in 8 innings spanning his last two starts. The Twins start John Gant. He has walked 7 in 9 innings spanning his last two road starts. When pitchers can't find the plate it can lead to trouble in no time. But no matter who is on the mound, note that the over is 12-2-1 in the last 15 meetings between these teams and there has been just 1 under in the last 8 games played in the Bronx with these teams matched up. Look for those trends to continue here. 8* OVER 10 in New York Yankees |
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09-12-21 | Rays v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
MLB 10* OVER 9 runs in Detroit - No matter who pitches here I like the over as the Rays continue to be on a high-scoring tear long-term. However, the pitching match-up here that is scheduled certainly does not hurt our chances of a slugfest! Tampa Bay's Luis Patino is off a start in which he allowed 4 earned runs in less than 3 innings and this was at home. Note that Patino has an ugly 7.44 ERA in his 3 road starts this season! As for Tigers starter Tarik Skubal, he has a 9.00 ERA his last two starts and has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts overall. The over 5-1 last 6 Rays games and 7-3 last 10 Tigers games and that trending continues here. 10* OVER 9 runs in Detroit |
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09-11-21 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
NOTE: Rangers now going with Wes Benjamin most likely. This is still a play for me. The other factors in totals are bullpens, how teams are hitting, situational, etc. It is not just about starting pitching so I do not care that Texas is starting Benjamin. The A's should still hit plenty here. This is still a play for me: 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Oakland - A's rolled to a 10-5 win yesterday and I look for another high-scoring game Saturday. Texas starts Kolby Allard and he is 2-12 with a 5.44 ERA on the season plus has been rocked for 2 homers in EACH of his last THREE starts. The Athletics start Cole Irvin here and he has been having a very rough time of late. He has allowed 5 homers in his last starts! Irvin has been hit very hard overall and has an 11.70 ERA in his last 3 starts. Allard has allowed 6 homers in his last 2 starts versus Oakland. Irvin just faced the Rangers and gave up 8 hits in 5 innings. Texas has been more competitive here late in the season and is 7-4 last 11 games and averaging 5.1 runs scored per game during this stretch. The A's have now scored an average of 6.2 runs last 10 games. Look for this one to get into double digits in runs scored. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Oakland |
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09-10-21 | Rays v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
NOTE: Tyler Alexander now expected to start for the Tigers. Still like this play, it is about the lineups not just the pitchers. Tampa Bay has been one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors for quite some time now as noted below and will bounce back off a low-scoring loss. Alexander is 5-9 with a 4.36 ERA and a .277 BAA in his career. The Rays will hit him well. Original write-up: 10* OVER 9 in Detroit - The Rays are off a 2-1 loss Wednesday but that followed a stretch of 4 straight overs. Also, Tampa Bay has scored an average of 8.8 runs last 5 games before that low-scoring loss. TB had scored more than 10 runs on their own in 3 straight road games prior to the 2-1 loss. They should pound the Tigers pitching here as Matt Boyd has struggled in his two starts since coming back to the rotation and the Detroit pen is nothing special either. As for Rays starter Michael Wacha, he has a 6.23 ERA on the road this season and the over is 7-2-1 in those 10 starts. The over is 6-3 in the Tigers last 9 games and they have averaged scoring 6 runs last 8 games. 10* OVER 9 in Detroit |
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09-09-21 | Twins v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
NOTE: Sticking with this play. Dobnak was scratched due to injury so modifying this write-up as of about 4 hours before first pitch. As noted below, there are situational reasons as to why I liked this play. Also, now Andrew Albers is the starter. He was called up from AAA to make this start but he has been getting rocked at a .288 clip by hitters at the AAA level. Also, at the MLB level, Albers got destroyed for 9 runs in 3 innings in most recent start and that was just earlier this month! ORIGINAL write-up: AL Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins @ 6:10 ET - Look for the 3rd time to be the charm in this match-up. I have seen this pattern before. Two ridiculously low-scoring games followed by an easy over in the next one and that is what I am expecting here based on this pitching match-up and that patterned situation I have seen many times before in the past. The Twins Randy Dobnak just moved back into the rotation and he allowed 5 earned runs in first start back. He is 1-4 with a 6.29 ERA as a starter this season. The Indians should finally get their bats going in this one. Cleveland has not hit well against the Twins so far in the first 3 games of this 4-game set but they entered this series having averaged 6 runs per game last 11 games. As for Minnesota, they have averaged nearly 5 runs per game last 10 road games and their 4-game winning streak also leads to extra confidence at the plate. That is bad news for Cal Quantrill because he is off a start in which he allowed 5 earned runs and 3 homers plus has struggled against Minnesota. Quantrill has an 8.68 ERA this season in his two starts against the Twins and was hit hard in both outings. 10* OVER 9 in Cleveland |
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09-09-21 | White Sox v. A's OVER 8.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Chicago White Sox @ 3:37 ET - The A's Manaea has allowed 5 homers last 3 starts including 3 homers in most recent home start. Chicago's Lopez has a 6.75 ERA last two starts, both on road. Before that he was successful against the A's at home but now the rematch is in Oakland and I look for his road woes to continue. Also, the over was on a 5-1-1 run in A's games before yesterday's match-up stayed under the total. Yesterday's game did have 18 hits and these teams combined for 21 hits in Tuesday's opener. The hot hitting continues today and this time we have the runs to show for it. 8* OVER the total in Oakland |
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09-09-21 | Dodgers v. Cardinals OVER 9 | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Thursday 8* OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 1:15 ET - I do not expect Gonsolin to come off the injury list and be in top form right away. Also, he struggled badly with walks his last 3 starts before going on the injured list and he was far from sharp. The Cardinals also have concerns at starting pitcher for this one. This is a play for me regardless of the starters but is expected to be Gonsolin versus Woodford. Note that Woodford had an ERA of 9.00 over his last two starts. He is only getting this start because Kwang Hyun Kim has been so bad in the starters role and now Kim will be available out of the bullpen but he has allowed 12 runs in 15 innings in his last 3 starts. You can see why I do not care who starts here. This one should see runs early and often. Cardinals just 2 unders last 8 games. 8* OVER in St Louis |
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09-08-21 | Twins v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Top Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins @ 6:10 ET - If you want to describe Triston McKenzie's recent performances on the mound as falling into the category of Superman you would not be too far off of reality. However, if that is the case do note that these Twins have proven to be McKenzie's Kryptonite! McKenzie has made two starts against Minnesota in the past 12 months and he has been rocked to the tune of a 12.92 ERA in those two outings. That said, look for the Twins to continue their recent road success here but I can't trust their starting pitcher in this spot either. But, first off, about that road success - Minnesota is 5-3 last 8 road games and the Twins have scored an average of 5 runs per game last 9 games. I know the Indians have suddenly fallen quiet at the plate their last two games but that was preceded by a stretch in which Cleveland won 7 of 11 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game. I am looking for double digits to be scored in this one as Minnesota's Joe Ryan is making just his 2nd MLB start. Yes he has good minor league numbers but the step up to the bigs is a big one indeed. Even just looking at spring training 2020 note that he had a 6.14 ERA in 4 appearances (2 starts) against MLB competition. That said, this is also Ryan's first MLB road start and I expect the Indians offense to get back on track after being shutout yesterday. 10* OVER 8.5 in Cleveland |
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09-08-21 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Wednesday 8* OVER 8.5 runs in Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners @ 2:10 ET - Though it took extra innings yesterday the Astros got the win and the game went over the total thanks to the extra innings. The over is now 5-0 last 5 Mariners games. Also, the O/U is 2-0 in Tyler Anderson's last 2 road starts. The over is also 3-0 in Anderson's last 3 starts at Houston and he allowed 15 earned runs in less than 15 innings in those 3 outings. The Astros start Jose Urquidy in this one and he just came back to the rotation and does not appear to be 100% just yet. Also, the over is 6-1 in his home starts this season. 8* OVER 8.5 runs in Houston |
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09-07-21 | Twins v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins @ 6:10 ET - These teams combined for 20 hits yesterday but the game stayed under the total. Look for plenty of hitting again today but this time it results in an over. The over was on an 8-3 run in Twins road games before yesterday's under. Minnesota did score 5 runs in the win and have now scored an average of 5 runs per game last 8 road games. The Indians were held to just 2 runs in the loss yesterday but Cleveland had won 7 of 11 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. Minnesota starter John Gant has a 7.30 ERA last 3 starts and each of his last two road starts have gone over the total. Cleveland starter Aaron Civale making his first start in quite some time but in his last start at home back in June he allowed 5 earned runs. He also allowed 4 earned runs earlier this season when he last faced Minnesota. 10* OVER 9.5 in Cleveland |
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09-06-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 1:05 ET - The Yankees scored 7 runs but lost yesterday. The Blue Jays got 8 early runs in their game yesterday and then coasted to victory behind another dominating performance from Robbie Ray. Neither one of these pitchers are coming anywhere close to the level of a Robbie Ray right now. The Jays Hyun-Jin Ryu has allowed 10 earned runs in less than 10 innings over his last two starts. He gave up two homers and had more walks than strikeouts the last time he faced New York. The Yankees counter with Jameson Taillon here and he has a 9.22 ERA in his last 3 starts. All 3 of those went over the total and the over is 18-7 in his starts this season. The righty faced the Blue Jays earlier this season and got crushed for 5 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work! Toronto has won 4 straight games and scored an average of 8.5 runs per game. The Yankees have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 4 games against a southpaw starter. 10* OVER 9.5 runs in New York Yankees |
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09-05-21 | Indians v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
NOTE: This is still a 10* Top Play for me. Pivetta was put on covid-19 list mid-morning today. So now Kutter Crawford makes MLB debut. Crawford had solid AA numbers in the minors this season but then struggled some when he faced AAA competition -Â 2-3 with 5.52 ERA in 6 appearances (5 starts). In his only spring training action (2019) he was rocked for 4 earned runs in 2 and 1/3 innings. I am betting he gets rocked again here. ORIGINAL write-up: Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Indians @ 1:10 ET - Yesterday's game was very low-scoring. I do not expect a repeat here! The teams were both scoreless through six innings but this starting pitching match-up should mean runs early, often and throughout this contest. Cleveland's Zach Plesac is off a strong start but it was at Kansas City. He faces a much tougher test facing the Red Sox at Fenway Park. There have only been 6 unders in Plesac's 20 starts this season. He had been hit hard in each of his two starts preceding the good one against the Royals. Boston will counter with Nick Pivetta here and he is consistently getting hit hard of late. Pivetta has a 10.12 ERA in his last 3 starts. On the season the Red Sox right-hander has a 5.60 ERA in home starts. Prior to yesterday's under, the over was on a perfect 6-0 run in games at Fenway Park. Look for that over trending to resume immediately in this early afternoon match-up. 10* OVER 9.5 runs in Boston |
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09-04-21 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 10 | 4-3 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Saturday 8* OVER 9.5 runs in New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles @ 1:05 ET - Yesterday was a low-scoring 4-3 extra innings Yankees win. Today Jordan Montgomery will be making his fourth start against the Orioles this season. Each successive start against Baltimore he has been hit a little harder each time including 5 earned runs in 3 innings in his most recent start against them. Look for this pattern to continue. The over is 2-0 in the two starts Chris Ellis has made for the Orioles. I look for that pattern to continue here as he has not been able to work too deep and the bullpen behind him is generally very bad. 8* OVER 9.5 run in New York Yankees |
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09-03-21 | Twins v. Rays OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
TOP Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET - Randy Dobnak coming back from an right middle finger strain. His most recent rehab appearance in the minors saw him walk 4 and allow 5 hits in less than 5 innings of work plus he struck out only 2. In the bigs this season Dobnak is 1-6 with a 7.83 ERA. Now he faces a Rays team that had been red hot but is off a shutout loss and has lost back to back games after a 9-game winning streak in which they scored an average of 7 runs per game! In other words, Dobnak is lined up to get rocked in my opinion. However, I am not playing Tampa Bay here because I simply can not trust Michael Wacha. The Rays right-hander is off a good start but was hit hard with 19 hits allowed in 10 innings spanning his two prior starts. Wacha also gave up 7 earned runs on 11 hits in 5 innings at Minnesota less than 3 weeks ago. Look for the Twins to pound him again here. I know Minnesota has, overall, not been scoring much of late but this is a good match-up for them and this flies over the total. 10* OVER 9 in Tampa Bay |
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09-01-21 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
AL West Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros @ 4:10 ET - Well aware of the fact that both teams have trended under of late but this game is set up perfectly for an over based on the pitching match-up. Jake Odorizzi starts for the Astros and the over is 11-6 in his starts this season and he has a 5.14 ERA on the road this season. In two starts at Seattle this season, Odorizzi allowed 7 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work. The Mariners start Logan Gilbert in this one. He has been rocked in his last 3 starts and one of those was against Houston and was a particularly rough one. In other words, this is unlikely to be the right match-up for him to turn things around. The over is 7-2 in Gilbert's home starts this season and he has a 5.66 ERA at home and a 13.50 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. Prior to yesterday's loss the Astros had won 8 of 11 games and scored an average of 7 runs in those 8 victories. Look for a big bounce back from Houston at the plate after being shutout by the Mariners yesterday but at the same time I certainly do not see Odorizzi enjoying success against the M's in this one either. 10* OVER 8.5 in Seattle |
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08-31-21 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
8* OVER 9.5 runs in Toronto - The Orioles just continue to get pummeled and give up a ton of runs. With Keegan Akin on the mound Tuesday that is unlikely to change. The Orioles southpaw is 0-5 with a ridiculous 9.73 ERA in road starts this season. Baltimore is also likely to do some damage at the plate in this one. Hyun-Jin Ryu has some decent numbers on the season but he just got hammered by the White Sox at home including allowing 3 homers. The last time he faced the Orioles as a host, Ryu allowed 4 earned runs. The over is 5-0 (and one push) in Ryu's 6 career starts against Baltimore. The over is 2-0 in Akin's last 2 starts against the Blue Jays. Also, the over is 5-2 in the Orioles last 7 games overall. As bad as the Orioles have been they have averaged scoring 7 runs their last 7 games but they simply can not prevent opponents from scoring. The Blue Jays have not been scoring well but facing the Orioles of course helps matters as shown yesterday! Toronto has scored 29 runs in Ryu's last 3 starts versus Baltimore and the Blue Jays deliver another huge game at the plate in this one. 8* OVER 9.5 runs |
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08-30-21 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
ESPN Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - Nick Pivetta is off back to back rough outings and has now struggled in 6 of his last 8 outings. In fact, in those 6 outings it has been quite ugly with 23 earned runs allowed in 23 and 2/3 innings! Now Pivetta has to face the hottest offense in baseball. The Rays have a slugging percentage of .486 last 30 days to top the majors. Guess who is #2 in that category in the American League? Yes, it is the Red Sox of course. That said we have two very potent lineups here but we get line value with a low total that opened up at a 9 and dropped to an 8.5 as of very early Monday morning. I will gladly grab the value here. I know Luis Patino has good numbers at home this season but he has been struggling a bit of late with too many walks and too many homers. That included allowing 4 earned runs on 6 hits (including 2 homers) in 6 innings at Boston 3 weeks ago. The Red Sox should get to him again here. The over is 6-2 in Boston's last 8 games. The Rays have not had any unders in their last 7 home games. Those trends continue here! 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Tampa Bay |
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08-30-21 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 9 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Monday 8* OVER 9 runs in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins @ 2:10 ET - I know each of these pitchers have some decent stats but this is a match-up issue. The Twins Bailey Ober struggled when he faced the Tigers last month. Detroit's Casey Mize has allowed 10 earned runs in less than 13 innings in his last 3 starts versus Minnesota. The over went 2- 1 in those 3 starts for Mize versus the Twins. Also, Ober's only career start against the Tigers, last month, flew over the total. There has only been 1 under in Ober's 7 road starts this season. Mize has been hit hard in his last two starts versus AL teams and both games went over the total. All these over trends continue here after both clubs are off games that stayed under the total yesterday. Good value with the low total on this day game Monday. There have only been 19 unders in 64 Minnesota road games this season! 8* OVER 9 runs in Detroit |
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08-29-21 | Red Sox v. Indians OVER 9.5 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Sunday 8* OVER 9.5 runs in Cleveland Indians vs Boston Red Sox @ 1:10 ET - Lost with this play yesterday. Was not a good play as only an extra inning made it close. However, I am coming right back with it today after I was simply wrong about the starting pitchers yesterday. I will not be today. The Indians start Eli Morgan and he is 1-5 with a 7.67 ERA at home this season. He has been rocked for 9 earned runs in less than 9 innings in his last two home starts and with as many walks as strikeouts. The Red Sox counter with Tanner Houck. The right-hander has a solid ERA on the season but his recent form is cause for concern. Houck has a 5.27 ERA in his last 3 starts but that could easier be even higher as he has been hit hard! Look for the Indians to pound him here. This one plays out entirely differently from yesterday's game and should get over the total by the middle innings. 8* OVER 9.5 in Cleveland |
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08-28-21 | Rays v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
NOTE about pitchers. I really do not care who pitches here. If there is a pitching change I would be re-releasing the play because the Rays are likely to go with Wacha but could go with Patino. The Orioles have no strong pitching left as Means was their one guy who was solid earlier this season but now even he is struggling and their bullpen has been horrid. This play is ON no matter who pitches but looks like will be Means vs Wacha. Please re-bet the over if it changes sometime prior to first pitch in this one. TOTAL ANNIHILATION - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:05 ET - Patino is not likely to start here but just mentioning he is winless with a 7.44 ERA in his 5 road starts this season. Wacha is more likely to start and he has a 7.64 ERA in his 7 starts since the All Star break. Look for the Orioles (10 hits yesterday and 31 runs the 3 preceding games) to enjoy some success at the plate no matter who is pitching for the Rays. The reverse is true as well as the Rays should pound whoever the Orioles have out there. Looks like will be Means and he is 0-3 with an 8.16 ERA last 3 starts as his recent struggles continue. The Orioles bullpen has been one of worst in majors this season. Tampa Bay has won 9 of 10 games and scored an average of 7.2 runs per game during this stretch. This game has over written all over it after yesterday's game fell just short. 10* OVER 9.5 runs in Baltimore |
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08-28-21 | Red Sox v. Indians OVER 9 | 5-3 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Saturday 8* OVER 9 runs in Cleveland Indians vs Boston Red Sox @ 4:05 ET - Yesterday's game was a low-scoring 4-3 Boston win and the Red Sox only had 3 hits in the game. However, this followed the Red Sox having a stretch of 5 straight overs and Boston averaged 9 runs per game in the final 4 games of the 5-0 O/U run. I look for the hot hitting to resume today. Cleveland had won 7 of 10 games before yesterday's loss and the Indians had scored an average of 6.2 runs per game in this 10-game stretch. The Indians will take advantage of Eovaldi's road struggles as he has a 5.02 ERA on the road this season. The Red Sox should get to Quantrill early and often. I know Quantrill has great numbers on the season but, prior to shutting down the slumping Angels, he was hit very hard by the Twins. Boston struggled with lefty Allen yesterday but the Red Sox are one of the top hitting teams in the league against righties this season and also in day games. This one will surprise many but Boston will give Quantrill trouble as their recent run against right-handed pitching continues. As for Eovaldi, the road struggles re-emerge here. 8* OVER 9 runs in Cleveland |
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08-27-21 | Reds v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Shocker Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:10 ET - Given the low ERA numbers of these two starters many will not expect a high-scoring game here. Hence, the shocker aspect of this pick. I do expect it to get crazy early in Miami on Friday. The Marlins are off a big 7-5 win over the Nationals yesterday. The Reds are off a big 5-1 win at Milwaukee yesterday. Cincinnati has won 7 of 11 games and scored an average of nearly 7 runs per game in those 7 wins. The Marlins have scored an average of 5.5 runs in back to back wins and should enjoy success against Wade Miley here. The Reds southpaw struggled with 5 hits and 3 walks in less than 5 innings versus Miami in his most recent start and was fortunate the damage was not worse than the 2 earned runs he allowed. Also, the over is 15-7 in his last 3 starts including 3-0 the last 3 and in his last road start Miley allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings. The Marlins start Zach Thompson and he just faced the Reds and had decent success in the 5-inning start but now gives them a quick second look. The over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts and the over trends for each of these starters likely to continue here given the situation and the fact both lineups enter this game with plenty of confidence. 10* OVER 8 runs in Miami |
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08-27-21 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
Contrarian Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #904 Friday 10* Top Play UNDER 9 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:05 ET - JA Happ has been completely rejuvenated since coming to the Cardinals. Also, he has dominated the Pirates twice this month already and, on the season, has allowed a total of only 3 earned runs in 3 starts versus Pittsburgh. Happ enters this start undefeated with a 1.99 ERA in his 4 starts since coming to St Louis. Dillon Peters starts for the Pirates here. He was solid against the Cardinals last week and the fact is St Louis generally just does not score well. The Cards scored 7 in yesterday's wild 11-7 game but you can definitely chalk that game up to a statistical anomaly. St Louis, prior to yesterday, had been held to 4 or less runs in 7 of last 8 games. The Cardinals averaged only 2.4 runs in those 7 games. The Pirates had been held to 2.4 runs per game game in going 4-7 last 11 games before yesterday's rare explosion at the plate. Things return to normal tonight. 10* UNDER 9 in Pittsburgh |
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08-26-21 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Rotation #951 Thursday 8* OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 2:10 ET - Something is just not right with the Brewers Brian Anderson and, let's face it, he was exceeding expectations for quite awhile. Now things are leveling out for Anderson and he has been rocked for 9 earned runs in less than 9 innings spanning his last two starts - both against non-playoff teams. Now he faces a Reds team that has given him some trouble in 2 of last 3 starts. Cincinnati starter Sonny Gray is off a very strong start but it was at home against the Marlins. He certainly was not as strong in his two prior starts on the road which both were 5 innings or less and the Reds bullpen continues to be a weakness for them. That was the case against last night. Also, Gray has struggled in 2 of 3 outings versus Milwaukee this season. The over was on a 5-1 run in Brewers games before yesterday's under. Also, the over was on a 4-0 run in meetings between these teams before yesterday's game totaled just 5 runs. The offenses come back to life here in this one and the lower total is providing us some solid line value here. 8* OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee |
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08-26-21 | Angels v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Thursday 8* OVER 10.5 runs in Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels @ 1:05 ET - With the Orioles finally ending their 19-game losing streak by rallying for the 10-6 win yesterday, my first though was to fade them here with the Angels. However, I can not trust Barria - 8 earned runs and hit hard in 5 innings last 2 starts - and I expect the Orioles lineup to enjoy some success here. They will need it because Akin is 0-8 with an 8.87 ERA on the season and showing no signs of turning things around. Angels bullpen is nothing special and the Orioles bullpen has been one of the worst in the majors. Runs early, often and throughout this contest. 8* OVER 10.5 runs in Baltimore |
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08-25-21 | White Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Contrarian Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #917 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:07 ET - First off, when teams combine for 27 hits in a game those batting lineups are going to carry some confidence into the next day no matter what pitchers they are facing. That said, even though both these pitchers have some strong numbers and overall are well-respected starters, there is reason to believe each guy will struggle some on Wednesday. Keep in mind, we also get a low total - 8.5 - to work with here because of the reputation of these two hurlers. By the way, both bullpens got hit in yesterday's game too. As for these starters, Robbie Ray is on rest of only 4 off days between starts here and he just had his longest start of the season at 8 innings. He threw 109 pitches in that outing and I would not be surprised to see him wear down here against a solid White Sox lineup especially as he gets into the middle innings of this one. As for Lucas Giolito, he is off a 7 inning outing and he has often struggled this season when off an outing of at least 7 innings. Here are few examples of what followed a long outing for Giolito: 7 earned runs in 1 inning; 3 homers in 7 innings; 5 walks and 6 hits for 11 baserunners in 6 innings; and, 3 walks and 6 hits for 9 baserunners in 4 innings. He has truly only been strong one time in five starts this season when he is off an outing in which he threw 7 or more innings. 10* OVER 8.5 in Toronto |
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08-25-21 | Tigers v. Cardinals OVER 9 | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #923 Wednesday 8* OVER 9 in St Louis Cardinals vs Detroit Tigers @ 1:15 ET - Jon Lester has walked 7 while striking out just 4 over his last 3 starts. His ERA could easily be much worse than the 5.87 ERA he has in those outings. Lester has a 7.08 ERA in his 4 starts since coming to the Cardinals and the over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts. Tarik Skubal starts for the Tigers here and he has good numbers in his last 3 starts but two of those were at home and the road outing was against a Baltimore team that has now lost 19 games in a row. The reasons that matters is because Skubal does have a 5.11 ERA on the road this season. Also, he struggled in his only start against the Cardinals this season. In his only start at St Louis, which was less than a year ago, Skubal allowed 6 earned runs in just 2 innings. Detroit's bullpen is bad and combining all this with the fact that Lester is highly likely to struggle too, both clubs should score plenty here. 8* OVER 9 in Detroit |
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08-24-21 | White Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
The MLB Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:07 ET - After yesterday's pitchers duel, I look for both these starting pitchers to get hit very hard. Jose Berrios has been roughed up in each of his last two starts. Also, he came to Toronto from Minnesota. Of course the Twins are a division rival of the White Sox. The point is that Chicago has plenty of familiarity with him and he did allow 3 homers in his most recent start against them. Also, this was preceded by Berrios getting hit very hard in one of the two prior starts against the White Sox this season as well. The O/U is 7-3 in Berrios road starts this season. I know this start is a home start for him but it is not his usual home of Minnesota. Yes he pitched well in his first two home starts for Toronto but this will be the most challenging match-up yet. I do look for him to get plenty of run support though as the Blue Jays should pound Dylan Cease. The White Sox right-hander has a 5.86 ERA on the road this season and only 3 of the dozen starts resulted in an under. These two teams have solid lineups even when not 100% healthy and yesterday's game saw them go a combined 2 for 16 with runners in scoring position. I expect much better clutch hitting in this one based on the pitching match-up and we'll see a much higher scoring game today. 10* OVER 9 runs in Toronto |
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08-24-21 | Mariners v. A's OVER 8.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Tuesday 8* OVER 8.5 runs in Oakland A's vs Seattle Mariners @ 3:37 ET - The Mariners are 9-3 last 12 games and the resulting confidence that comes from winning is showing up at the plate too. They rallied for 3 runs in the top of the 9th in yesterday's 5-3 win at Oakland. Seattle has averaged about 6 runs scored in their last 6 victories and stay hot at the plate against Cole Irvin here. He has had some good starts recently but was helped by facing the light-hitting Rangers twice in his last 3 starts. Irvin has an 8.30 ERA in two starts versus Seattle this season. Also, Irvin has allowed 8 runs (6 earned) on 15 hits in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. Seattle starts Chris Flexen and he had been getting hit harder of late before facing weak-hitting Texas. So he is off a good start but went 1-2 in his 5 prior starts allowing 17 earned runs on 36 hits in 27 innings. Yes that works out to 4 hits every 3 innings of work plus an ERA of 5.67 and neither of those are impressive numbers. Oakland has been a slump but they can snap out of it at home and with the way Flexen has pitched most recently. Also, he is 0-2 with a 5.56 ERA in his two starts against the Athletics this season. 8* OVER 8.5 runs in Oakland |
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08-23-21 | White Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:07 ET - This is a contrarian play because, with these pitchers on the mound, you might first be thinking of an under. However, there is a lot to like here about an over with this play. The White Sox will respond after being shut out at Tampa Bay yesterday. Chicago had scored an average of 5.4 runs per game in last 9 games before that one. The Blue Jays are off a 5-3 extra innings loss that made them use some extra bullpen arms yesterday. That could come into play here as well but the point is that the Blue Jays are also in bounce back mode but could have some trouble in the later innings with their bullpen too. Toronto had scored 5.3 runs per game in their last 7 games against right-handed starters before surprisingly struggling yesterday. Look for them to get back on track versus Lance Lynn as he has great numbers on the season but has been a little off lately. Lynn has allowed 3 homers in 9 innings over his last two starts. Speaking of being off, Alek Manoah just got rocked for the Blue Jays in his most recent outing. That was on the road but he also was not nearly as strong in his most recent home start as he had been for much of this season either. That said, the over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts and two of those were on the road and now he is at home where the over is 4-1 this season. The over is 5-3 in Lynn's road starts this season. Take advantage of the low total here as these are two solid lineups matching up in this one. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Toronto |
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08-23-21 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Monday 8* OVER 9.5 runs in Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers @ 1:10 ET - Rain in forecast again today as they try to make up this postponement from yesterday. The good news is that the early afternoon forecast is very light showers so there is a good chance they will get this game in and I expect to see plenty of runs. I know the Rangers offense has been in consistent but they have scored 7 or more runs in 4 of last 8 games. In other words, when they are on they are on and this looks like a good match-up for that. Nathan Eovaldi starts for the Red Sox and has a 5.40 ERA last 3 starts with 4 homers allowed. Boston should score plenty here too as they had averaged scoring 9.5 runs last 6 home games prior to being shutdown in Saturday's 10-1 loss. The Red Sox will take advantage of facing a struggling Kolby Allard. The Rangers southpaw has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts including a pair in each of his last two starts. Allard has a 5.64 ERA on the road this season and he has been lucky the damage has not been worse in his last few starts despite all the homers. He will not be so lucky here. 8* OVER 9.5 runs in Boston |
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08-22-21 | Tigers v. Blue Jays OVER 10.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
10* OVER 10.5 in Toronto - The Tigers are starting Hutchison and he got hammered and could not find the plate in his first start last week as he lasted less than two innings. Matz starts for the Blue Jays and is off a good road start but has been hit hard in recent home starts. Also, on the season, the Toronto lefty has a 4.57 ERA in home starts and that could easily be worse as he has an ugly 1.66 WHIP as a host this season. I know it has been back to back low-scoring unders so far in this series but look for the finale of the 3-game set to fly over the total. Both teams had been trending over coming into this series and this looks like the perfect pitching match-up for these lineups to come back to life and get off to a hot start and then carry the momentum through the game. Also, the over is 7-2 in Matz home starts this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER 10.5 in Toronto |
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08-22-21 | Braves v. Orioles OVER 10 | 3-1 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
8* OVER 10 runs in Baltimore - Hopefully the rain will stay away as it is in the forecast but certainly not forecast to be an all day event here. I know yesterday's game burned us right here and was the lone loss on our card as the over 10.5 tallied 9 runs. However, this Braves team remains red hot and, overall, scoring runs like crazy. This Orioles team remains ice cold and giving up tons of runs. Combining those factors with the fact that Baltimore should score some decent runs today, I see this one flying over the total. The Braves start Touki Toussaint and the over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts and he has allowed 4 homers in those outings. The Orioles start John Means and he is struggling badly. The Baltimore lefty is winless with a 7.43 ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed 5 homers in his last 2 starts and none of his last 3 starts has resulted in an under. 8* OVER 10 runs in Baltimore |
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08-21-21 | Braves v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
IL Blowout - MLB 10* OVER 10.5 runs in Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - I know I fell short with this play last night but I do expect tonight to make up for it and for a lot of runs to be scored. Entering yesterday's action, as mentioned here in Friday's write-up, the Orioles had a .436 slugging percentage against lefties this season and that ranked 5th in the majors! Braves southpaw Drew Smyly has been struggling recently and this includes away from home where he has a 4.52 ERA on the road this season and the over is 11-2 in those 13 starts. Orioles right-hander Matt Harvey is likely to get rocked as he is 2-7 with a 6.60 ERA in his 11 home starts this season. Harvey, 7.45 ERA last 2 starts, faces a Braves team that is rolling on a hot streak. Atlanta has averaged scoring 6.5 runs per game last 11 games and the over was 6-2 last 8 Braves games prior to yesterday's low-scoring win. Orioles pitching, including bullpen, continues to get pounded as they have allowed nearly 9 runs per game during their current 16-game losing streak. 10* OVER 10.5 runs in Baltimore |
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08-20-21 | White Sox v. Rays OVER 9 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 102 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - The White Sox have Lucas Giolito on the mound and the over is 9-3 in his road starts this season. He has been hit a little harder in recent starts too as he has struggled in 2 of his last 3 outings. I know Giolito is certainly a solid pitcher overall but this Rays team is swinging very hot sticks right now. Tampa Bay has won 11 of 14 games and scored an average of 7.7 runs per game during this hot stretch. The White Sox are also rolling again overall as they had won 8 of 12 before yesterday's 5-4 loss. Chicago had averaged 5.8 runs per game in those dozen games and should have no trouble with the offerings of Michael Wacha here. The Rays right-hander is 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA in his last 3 starts. The over is 10-4-2 in Wacha's 16 starts this season. More of the same on tap here and both teams have huge days at the plate. 10* OVER 9 in Tampa Bay |
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08-20-21 | Braves v. Orioles OVER 10 | 3-0 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
Early Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #977 Friday 8* OVER 10 runs in Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - A lot of rain in Baltimore this morning but it is supposed to taper off by mid-day so hopefully we'll have baseball tonight at Camden Yards. Should be very entertaining if we do because I expect a lot of runs to be scored. The Orioles have a .436 slugging percentage against lefties this season and that ranks 5th in the majors! Braves southpaw Max Fried has been pitching well but has a 4.67 ERA on the road this season. Orioles left-hander Keegan Akin is likely to get rocked as he is 0-7 with a 9.29 ERA in his 10 starts this season. Akin, 13.50 ERA last 3 starts, faces a Braves team that is rolling on a hot streak. Atlanta has averaged scoring 6.6 runs per game last 10 games and the over is 6-2 last 8 Braves games. Orioles pitching, including bullpen, continues to get pounded as they have allowed 9 runs per game during their current 15-game losing streak. 8* OVER 10 runs in Baltimore |
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08-19-21 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners @ 2:05 ET - I know neither one of these lineups have been juggernauts in terms of scoring runs of late but this looks like the perfect match-up for a breakthrough game for each. That said, I love the value of this very low total, 8.5, for an American League game when you consider the pitching match-up here. Chris Flexen has struggled throughout his career and after a surprising run through much of this season, particularly in his home starts, he is starting to revert back to normal of late. Flexen has been hit much harder over his last 4 starts. Also, on the season he has proven to be much more susceptible to getting roughed up on the road and that was also true in his lone start at Texas earlier this season. Flexen has a 5.44 ERA in his road starts this season and opponents are hitting .327 against him away from home. The Rangers start former Phillie Spencer Howard here and the Mariners just faced him in his most recent start. This is a big edge to the hitters and they will get to him this time around. Though he was successful in that outing, Howard only lasted 3 innings and now Seattle gets another look. Keep in mind, he entered that start with an 8.03 ERA over his 3 prior starts. Return to normal here and both teams see their lineups have big games here. 10* OVER 8.5 in Texas |
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08-19-21 | Angels v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Thursday 8* OVER 9.5 runs in Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels @ 1:10 ET - Admittedly I made a mistake with this play (over between Det/LAA) Wednesday as it lost and, in hindsight, I should not have doubted those pitchers. However, for Thursday's match-up, I have no problem doubting either one of these pitchers. Note that Jose Quintana is only being put in the rotation because Patrick Sandoval went on the injured list. He has struggled as a starter this season as has a 7.22 ERA in his 9 starts. Though he has been better working out of the bullpen it also means he will not likely work deep into this game even if he does enjoy some surprising success. He has only averaged 10.5 pitches in his 4 appearances this month and the Angels bullpen has been sub-par overall this season and the same holds true for the Tigers relievers too. Both pens could be called upon early in this one as I look for Matt Manning to struggle also. Manning has allowed 18 runs (15 earned) on 30 hits in less than 21 innings over his last 4 starts. Expect more of the same here and both lineups see their bats come back to life in this one. 8* OVER 9.5 runs in Detroit |
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08-18-21 | Angels v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:10 ET - This total is an 8.5 and it is a contrarian play because both Shohei Ohtani and Tarik Skubal have been pitching well of late. However, I like the over here as Skubal is going to return to norms as I am expecting a regression to the mean. Also, the Angels exploding for 6 runs in the top of the 9th yesterday gives this team a ton of momentum heading into today's match-up. As for Ohtani, he has been known to be a much better pitcher at home in comparison with on the road. That said, I do expect some struggles for him here. He entered this season with a 6.20 ERA in his career on the road and he has a 4.54 ERA in his 7 road starts this season and that is even including a good one in his most recent outing. I know the Tigers offense has been quite in the past two games but this followed Detroit scoring an average of 6 runs a game over 6 prior games. The Angels have averaged scoring 5 runs per game in their last 4 road wins and Skubal's most recent home start was a good one but that was preceded by him allowing 3 homers in his prior home start. Just a strong feeling here that the Angels carry momentum from yesterday's huge 9th inning while the Tigers also hit well as Ohtani has some road struggles as his long-term tendency for that resumes here. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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08-18-21 | Mets v. Giants OVER 8.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB 8* OVER 8.5 runs in San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets @ 3:45 ET - The Giants are rolling on a red hot winning streak and I am sure their bats will enjoy success today against Megill but I just can not trust DeSclafani in this match-up. He has allowed 10 earned runs in 12 innings over his last 3 starts and all went over the total. In fact, the over is 8-1 in his 9 home starts this season. As for Megill, he has a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts overall and has allowed 3 homers in his last 2 road starts. The Giants are on a 14-3 run last 17 games and have averaged scoring 6.6 runs per game in the 14 wins. The total on this game is only 8.5 and the way DeSclafani has been pitching I am sure New York is going to enjoy some success at the plate in this one too. The Mets had scored at least 4 runs in 6 of 7 games before yesterday's tight 3-2 loss. This one should be a much more wide-open high-scoring affair. 8* OVER 8.5 runs in San Francisco |
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08-17-21 | Orioles v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
NOTE: Drew Rasmussen is making just his 4th start of the season and is averaging only 3 innings per start. He is not a true starter. The Rays could change their mind and use an opener and then let Rasmussen get the bulk of the work - 3 or 4 innings. That said, I just want to emphasize that, just like yesterday's play involving these teams, I do not care who the starting pitchers are for either team. If possible, I would recommend to bet this total at a book that has action on pitchers on all bets in MLB. Either way, I am telling you straight away that if there is a pitching change, this is still a play for me and I would recommend to re-bet it if you did not already have action: Total of the Month: Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - As for the Orioles, John Means is scheduled to start. With how hot the Rays bats have been it does not matter whom Baltimore starts here and plus the Orioles bullpen has been dreadful and that continued yesterday. As for Means, he has a decent ERA his last 3 starts but his numbers, particularly in his last 2 starts, have certainly left a lot to be desired and this is helping to lead to value in this spot. Means has allowed 16 hits in just 9 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts and that including giving up just 1 earned run but 8 hits to the Rays. Also, Means just got absolutely destroyed by the Tigers when he gave them a quick 2nd look and now he is doing the same by facing this hot Tampa Bay lineup again after just seeing them two starts ago - exact same situation he just had relating to Detroit. Also, the Rays are on an 8-2 run to the over as TB has been hot. The Rays have scored an average of nearly 9 runs per game in their last 8 victories. The Orioles have allowed an average of about 9 runs per game last 12 games! Also, the Orioles had scored an average of 5 runs per game in last 6 games versus Rays prior to being held to just 2 runs yesterday. They should fare better today plus the TB bats should remain FIRE! 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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08-16-21 | Orioles v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
NOTE: Fleming likely to get most of the work for Rays while McHugh will serve as an opener here. I do not care who the starting pitchers are for either team. If possible, I would recommend to bet this total at a book that has action on pitchers on all bets in MLB. Either way, I am telling you straight away that if there is a pitching change, this is still a play for me and I would recommend to re-bet it if you did not already have action: Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - Collin McHugh expected to only serve as an opener here so lets discuss Josh Fleming as he is projected to get most of the action. Fleming has been hit hard and has a 10.13 ERA in his last 3 starts and the over is 7-4 in his 11 starts this season. Again, I know he is not the listed starter here but essentially he is the starter by virtue of getting most of the work here. As for the Orioles Matt Harvey is scheduled to start. With how hot the Rays bats have been it does not matter whom Baltimore starts here and plus the Orioles bullpen has been dreadful. As for Harvey, he has a decent ERA his last 3 starts but his numbers, particularly in his last 2 starts, have certainly left a lot to be desired and this is helping to lead to value in this spot. Harvey got absolutely destroyed by Tampa Bay earlier this season. Also, the Rays are off a 5-4 loss that stayed under the total but this was preceded by a 7-1 run to the over as TB had been hot. The Rays have scored an average of nearly 9 runs per game in their last 7 victories. The Orioles are off a 6-2 loss that stayed under the total but Baltimore has allowed an average of about 9.5 runs per game last 11 games! Also, the Orioles have scored an average of 5 runs per game in last 5 games versus Rays. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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08-14-21 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 4:10 ET - The Orioles were held to just 1 run yesterday and that was the difference in the game staying under the total as the Red Sox did explode for 8 runs in that game. Today I look for the Boston bats to again be rolling but, this time, the Baltimore bats should enjoy some success too. Chris Sale, of course, brings a certain reputation to the mound. But this will be his first MLB start in two years. Coming back from a major elbow issue, Sales will not work very deep into this game. Also, the last time he hosted the Orioles he did allow 3 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. Jorge Lopez starts for the visitors in this one. I know he has some decent stats of late but Lopez also has a 7.45 ERA in his two starts versus the Red Sox this season. Boston enters this game scoring an average of 8.2 runs last 5 games. The Orioles have allowed 9.1 runs last 9 games. The Orioles lead the AL in slugging percentage versus southpaws this season so could surprise here with some success versus Sale. Also, over the past week, Baltimore is hitting .262 and the Red Sox are hitting .286 and we should see plenty of scoring today. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-13-21 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 11 | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash – Rickenbach MLB Friday 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7 ET – Both teams off unders yesterday but the Red Sox, amazingly, have allowed at least 8 runs in 4 straight games and 6 of their last 8. Boston can score well and had scored 32 runs in 3 games before being shutdown yesterday. That said, I look for the Red Sox to bounce right back as they take advantage of facing a struggling Spenser Watkins as he has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts. The Orioles should also hit well here as they are off a 6-4 loss yesterday but continue to pile up hits and, before consecutive unders (both games featured a pile of hits), the over was on a perfect 6-0 run in Baltimore games. Facing Nick Pivetta should help matters as the Red Sox right-hander has a 5.80 ERA at home this season and the Orioles will be seeing him for the 3rd time already this season. 8* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-13-21 | Indians v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator – Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Indians @ 7 ET – The Tigers scored 6 runs yesterday but the game just stayed under the total. Detroit has been piling up hits lately and also should have no trouble with the offering of a struggling Zach Plesac. The Indians just got hammered 17-0 yesterday and now send Plesac to the hill likely to see more big runs scored. Plesac has a 7.71 ERA in his last 3 starts and all went over the total. The Tigers are 3-1 to the over in Tyler Alexander’s home starts this season. The fact that Cleveland just saw him is likely to help the hitters too. Alexander did enjoy some surprising success in that start but this is still a guy that is getting hit at a .284 clip at the MLB level. Alexander is a lefty and the Indians are 3-1 to the over in last 4 road games against a left-handed starter and they scored an average of 6.3 runs in those 4 games. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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08-12-21 | Tigers v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers @ 4:05 ET - The Tigers and Orioles combined for 20 hits in yesterday's game after combining for 19 hits in Tuesday's game. Even though there were more hits yesterday there were only 7 runs scored after the teams combined for 13 runs on Tuesday. The fact is the teams are swinging hot bats and that should continue here and this one should make up for yesterday's shortfall of runs. The Orioles are starting John Means and he has been a little harder in each of his last two home starts and overall the over is 4-2 in his home starts this season. The Tigers are starting Matt Manning and he is 0-4 with a 9.13 ERA in his road starts this season. Manning has a 7.36 ERA in his last 3 starts and that includes getting hit hard by the Orioles but 3 of the 5 runs were unearned. In other words, his ERA last 3 starts could easily be higher. Look for plenty of runs here as these are also two of the worst bullpens in the league too. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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08-11-21 | Marlins v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
NL Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins @ 4:10 ET - The Padres have the best bullpen in the majors on the season and the Marlins are not far behind. I say this based on ERA on the season. However, if you look at those same rankings over time periods like last 7 days, last 15 days, last 30 days then you will find the Padres ranking only in the middle of the pack while the Marlins are near the bottom. That said, and with the recent high-scoring trending of these two teams as well as two starting pitchers likely to struggle and the fact this is a day game at Petco Park all factors are combining to suggest an over in this one. I also like the early line move which was from an 8.5 down to an 8. The Marlins are 8-1 to the over last 9 games. The Padres are 8-1-1 to the over last 10 games. Miami's Sandy Alcantara is off a disastrous road start at Colorado and has struggled more on the road than at home this season. The over is 4-0-1 in games between these teams this season and the Padres start a struggling Randy Weathers here. The southpaw has allowed 14 earned runs in 7 innings spanning his last two starts and both of those were at home where he has worse numbers than on the road this season. As you an see, all signs pointing to a high-scoring game here and yet we have a low number to work with. These teams each pounded out a dozen hits yesterday and the Padres continue to score quite well even without the injured Fernando Tatis. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
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08-11-21 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9 | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:10 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total but, prior to yesterday the White Sox had won 4 straight games and had been scoring well and the Twins had been trending over. Speaking of trending over, the over is 8-3-1 in Bailey Ober's starts this season. Also, Ober has allowed 4 homers in his last 3 starts against the White Sox. As for Lance Lynn, yes he is having a great season but he has also allowed 4 homers in his last 3 starts against the Twins. Also, each of Lynn's last two starts have gone over the total and I look for the over to improve to 6-3 in his road starts this season with a surprisingly high-scoring game resulting Wednesday afternoon. 8* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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08-10-21 | Rockies v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
IL Dominator - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Houston Astros vs Colorado Rockies at 8:10 ET - The Rockies have been hitting quite well and no it has not just been at Coors Field either. That said, I look for the bats to stay hot here as Houston's Jake Odorizzi has an 8.31 ERA in his last three starts and all 3 starts went over the total. The key to an over here is that, though Jon Gray has pitched well for the Rockies, I expect to struggle with this potent Astros lineup as they are at home for this one. Houston is getting a 2nd look at Gray as they faced him earlier this season. The right-hander has a 4.40 ERA in road starts this season and allowed 3 homers in his last 2 road starts plus is coming off a home outing in which he allowed 8 hits in 6 innings. The Astros have had only 4 unders in their past dozen games. Houston has scored an average of 5.8 runs per game during this stretch. The Rockies are 9-3 to the over in past dozen games and have scored an average of 7.4 runs per game during this stretch. As long-time followers know I like to take overs when a home team has a struggling hurler on the mound. That means the road team should get their fair share of runs and I have no question the home team should get their fair share as well as the Astros are a strong team at home. 10* OVER 8.5 in Houston |
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08-09-21 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 11-1 | Win | 101 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Bullpen game likely for Minnesota. We will play the over regardless of the pitching match-up in this game. Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox at 8:10 ET - Minnesota is off a 7-5 win and the White Sox off a 9-3 win. Just like those games yesterday for each respective club, do not be surprised if this game also gets into double digits in runs scored. The over is 8-3 with one push in the last dozen Twins games. Minnesota has scored an average of 5.5 runs per game during this stretch and now face Chicago's Lucas Giolito. The White Sox right-hander just allowed 6 earned runs in four innings and note that the over is 8-3 in his road starts this season. Though Beau Burrows is getting the start for the Twins here as an opener, or at least expected to, note that Charlie Barnes is actually expected to be the long guy in this one. Barnes allowed 5 earned runs in just four innings in his most recent start and the White Sox have hit Minny really well this season. Prior to a 7-2 loss in most recent meeting, Chicago had scored 6.6 runs last 9 meetings. The over is 10-5-1 in the 16 meetings between these teams this season. By now, the hitters have a lot of familiarity with the respective relievers for each team too. Look for the over to improve to 9-3 in Giolito's road starts this season as this one gets into double digits in runs scored. 10* OVER 9.5 runs in Minnesota |
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08-09-21 | Reds v. Indians OVER 9.5 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Bullpen game likely for Cleveland. We will play the over regardless of the pitching match-up in this game. Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach MLB 8* OVER 9.5 runs in Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds at 6:10 ET - Luis Castillo has been on a strong run but the Reds right-hander did give up 3 earned runs in most recent road start, is 2-5 away from home this season, and the over is 7-3 in his away starts this season. Sam Hentges expected to be the opener here but it hardly matters as he is only likely to go an inning or two. The fact is that whoever the Indians have on the mound throughout this game will be dealing with a red hot Reds lineup. Cincinnati has won ten of its last dozen games and even including yesterday's low-scoring victory, the Reds have averaged 6.8 runs per game during this hot stretch. The Indians also have shown life with their bats recently and, keep in mind, the Reds bullpen has been shaky this season. Cleveland has scored 5 or more runs in 6 of its last eleven games and Castillo has struggled here with 9 runs - 7 earned - allowed in his last 9 innings at Progressive Field. 8* OVER 9.5 runs in Cleveland |
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08-08-21 | Tigers v. Indians OVER 9.5 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Earliest Dominator: 8* OVER 9.5 in Cleveland - Stubborn is an adjective that has been used to describe me through the years but it has proven to pay off in the long run. I know we lost with this play yesterday and that the Tigers have burned me recently on totals but that streak will end today. Yesterday the teams combined for just 3 runs on 17 hits and that kind of production will not be repeated here. This time the teams will cash in their opportunities. Detroit has not scored well so far in this series but they entered this series having won 6 of 9 games and the Tigers had averaged 5.8 runs their past ten games. The Indians have pounded out 25 hits in the first two games of this series. Entering yesterday's action, Cleveland had scored an average of 5 runs per game last 9 games. Wily Peralta has allowed 11 earned runs in 9 innings spanning his last two road starts. The Tigers right-hander will be opposed by Indians right-hander Zach Plesac who has a 6.48 ERA in his last three starts and has allowed a ridiculous 17 hits in the ten innings spanning his last two starts. Detroit has had only ONE under in SIX Peralta road starts this season. The Indians have had only TWO unders in EIGHT Plesac home starts this season. Those trends continue here and, in doing so, buck the recent Tigers under streak. 8* OVER 9.5 in Cleveland |
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