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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-26-18 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 11 | 6-5 | Push | 0 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds @ 9:10 ET - I am coming right back with this play after getting royally burned with this same pick yesterday. The game was 4-4 after 3 innings so the worst possible (and yet highly unlikely) result that could have happened was a 5-4 game. That is what I got despite this game being at Coors Field and despite the following stats which still hold true today. No team in the National League has a higher ERA in night games than the Reds pitching staff: 5.16 ERA YTD. No team in the National League has a higher ERA in home games than the Rockies pitching staff: 5.57 ERA YTD. With that said, before moving into the information on starting pitchers today lets also mention that the weather will again be very warm in Denver today and the wind will be blowing out! That holds extra significance here because Cincinnati's Tyler Mahle has allowed 13 homers in 10 starts this season and he allowed 3 homers in his most recent start! The Rockies will gladly welcome him to Coors Field in his first ever start here with plenty of smashes out of the park or at least off the wall or in the outfield gaps in this one. As for Rockies starter Tyler Anderson, he has a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts and allowed 2 homers in his most recent home start. The Reds are 6-1-1 to the over this season when on the road with a money line range of -125 to +125. Cincinnati is in the +125 range right now and I look for a slugfest to erupt in this one. 8* OVER the total in Colorado |
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05-26-18 | Giants v. Cubs OVER 9 | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants @ 7:15 ET - Mild evening at Wrigley Field. Wind certainly not a key factor tonight but it also won't hurt us. Light winds expected to be blowing from right to left or possibly even shifting to be blowing out toward left but, again, any impact would only help us and overall light breezes expected. The Giants are actually #3 out of 15 National League teams for batting average versus left-handed pitching this season. They should enjoy success against Cubs southpaw Jose Quintana. The lefty allowed 3 homers in his most recent home start and has an ugly 6.30 ERA at home this season. This is no fluke as he struggles in Chicago. Last season he started the season with the White Sox and his ERA was more than a full run higher at home compared to on the road. Then he went to the Cubs and his ERA was more than TWO full runs higher at home compared to on the road. As for the Giants Chris Stratton, he enters this game with an ugly 7.36 ERA in his last 3 starts. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Stratton's last 3 starts and also 3-0 in Quintana's last 3 starts. The over is 7-2 in San Francisco's Saturday's games this season and the over is 13-7 in Giants games against left-handed starters this year! Only 3 of the Cubs 9 Saturday games have stayed under the total. Look for the high-scoring trends noted above to quickly resume tonight after yesterday's afternoon game stayed just under the total. 8* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game |
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05-25-18 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:40 ET - High temperatures in the upper-80s expected in Denver this afternoon. That means a very mild evening at Coors Field for this one and the air, as is typically the case, will be very dry with great carry on balls put into play! The Rockies Jon Gray is off of back to back rough starts and his most recent outing was at pitcher-friendly San Francisco so that certainly doesn't bode well for his odds of a decent start at hitter-friendly Colorado tonight. Gray has now given up 11 earned runs on 19 hits in 9 innings spanning his last two starts. He allowed 8 hits in less than 6 innings of work in his last start versus the Reds. Cincinnati comes into this game having swung the bats quite well in taking 2 of 3 from the Pirates in a series that wrapped up yesterday. The Rockies bats have not fared well recently but they were on the road. Results at the plate will improve now that they are back at home. Facing a struggling Sal Romano should certainly help matters. The Reds right-hander has allowed 13 earned runs in just 7 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 2 starts. Romano was hit hard plus walked 6 in just 5 innings in his most recent start. He has struggled with fastball command while Gray has struggled with his fastballs simply being too hittable of late - .591 batting average against his fastballs last two starts! The over is 3-0-1 in the Reds last 4 road games. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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05-25-18 | Giants v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Friday 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants @ 2:20 ET - Temperatures in the mid-80s at Wrigley Field this afternoon. Though the winds will be rather light they are blowing out so they will help our cause here too! The Giants Derek Holland is likely in trouble here as the southpaw gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent start at that was at home in a pitcher-friendly park. Now he is on the road in a hitter-friendly park (when the weather is like it is today in Chicago) and Holland's most recent road start saw him walk 5 batters in just 6 and 1/3 innings. Also, in his road start prior to that the Giants southpaw gave up 6 hits (including 2 homers) in just 5 innings of work. Holland is 2-5 with a 4.94 ERA this season. The Cubs counter with Kyle Hendricks and the right-hander has given up 8 runs (6 earned) in 11 innings in his last two starts. When he last faced the Giants - in August - he allowed 5 hits plus walked 3 in less than 5 innings of work. He was fortunate to escape with just 1 earned run given up but that was at AT & T Park and he won't be so fortunate in summer like conditions at Wrigley Field this afternoon. The Cubs most recent home game stayed under the total but previously the over was 7-2 in Chicago's 9 prior home games! The Giants most recent game stayed under the total but prior to that San Francisco was on a 17-7-2 run to the over their 26 prior games. The over is 4-1 when the Giants are playing after an off day this season and the Cubs are 5-2 in that same situation. That makes this a combined 9-3 (75%) spot this season and I'll take it! 8* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game |
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05-24-18 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 7 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - This total has gone from an 8 to a 7 as of early game day morning and let me remind everyone this is an American League game, these are good pitchers but certainly not Cy Young candidates, and there is reason to believe both could struggle some here. Boston's Rick Porcello has a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. Now I know he has enjoyed success against the Rays this season but they have gotten to him for 3 earned runs in each of the past two starts and he is now facing them for a 4th time this season! A lot of repetition tends to favor the hitters much more than the pitchers. As for Tampa Bay's Blake Snell, he has a 6.30 ERA in his last two starts. Now I know those outings were on the road and this one is at home where he has enjoyed success this season. However, the Red Sox are now getting a 3rd look at Snell on the young season and their lineup has been surging of late. Boston has won 8 of its last 11 games and that is thanks in part to run production of at least 4 runs in 10 of those 11 games. Though the TB sticks have been quieter so far in this series, they are still averaging 4.5 runs per game their last 11 games. There is truly no reason this games shouldn't end up being a 5-4 type game and of course that means great value with this low total. The over is 9-2 this season when the Rays enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. There have not been any unders in Porcello's last 3 starts and the over is 6-3 in Snell's last 9 starts. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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05-24-18 | Orioles v. White Sox OVER 9 | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 2:10 ET - I just don't see how anyone can trust either starter in this match-up and I expect plenty of runs in a warm afternoon game at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Orioles Dylan Bundy responded after a horrific outing versus the Royals by throwing 7 shutout innings versus Tampa Bay. However, he then allowed 3 homers to the Red Sox in his most recent start. Bundy has now allowed 7 homers in his last 13 innings on the mound. Also, in his last two starts versus the White Sox the Orioles right-hander has compiled a 5.73 ERA and the over is 3-0 in his 3 career starts versus the ChiSox. They will have Lucas Giolito on the mound and he has 34 walks versus 27 strikeouts so far this season! Of course those numbers are truly "scary bad" and so are these: 1 win in 4 home starts while compiling a 10.19 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP. Look for the over to go to 9-4-1 on the season when Baltimore is on the road in a game which has a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. 8* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game |
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05-24-18 | Angels v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 8-1 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels @ 12:35 ET - Yesterday's game stayed just under the closing number of 9.5 runs but both bullpens did struggle in trying to close out the game. Also, there were a ton of men left on base for both teams. In other words, many wasted scoring opportunities prevented what should have been a rather easy over. Look for the lineups to make up for that today as two hurlers likely to struggle take to the mound early Thursday. The Angels Nick Tropeano has allowed 7 earned runs in 8 and 2/3 innings in his last 2 starts with as many walks as strikeouts. The Blue Jays Marco Estrada is 0-3 with a 5.47 ERA at home this season and has allowed 7 earned runs in the 12 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts at the Rogers Centre. The over is 5-1 in Thursday games for Los Angeles this season and the over is 5-2 in Toronto's Thursday games. Even though these two bullpens have respectable ERA numbers on the season, the Blue Jays relievers have a .263 BAA and the Angels relievers have a .258 BAA which ranks them 24th and 22nd out of the 30 MLB teams. Look for them to get hit hard again today and we could see another wild finish but this time it flies over the total. 8* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-23-18 | Padres v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres @ 4:05 ET - I know the Padres are, generally speaking, a weak-hitting team. However, they are facing Erick Fedde of the Nationals here. The 25-year old right-hander has struggled every time he has pitched above the AA level of the minors. Last season in AAA ball he was hit at a .276 clip and compiled a 4.76 ERA. This season so far he was hit at a .280 clip and compiled a 4.35 ERA at the AAA level. At the MLB level Fedde made 3 starts last season and though he did well in terms of strikeouts he did go winless and compiled a 9.39 ERA while getting crushed at a .385 clip by major league hitters. In other words, the Padres should surely "get theirs" today. As for the Nationals, they'll take advantage of facing a hurler whom they've enjoyed success against. San Diego sends Tyson Ross to the mound for this one. The right-hander has been solid so far this season but he has compiled a 6.35 ERA in his 4 career starts versus the Nats and he was hit hard by them two weeks ago and that was in San Diego. Now he faces them on the road and the Nationals had averaged 6 runs per game in their last 4 games versus the Padres before getting shut down yesterday. The over is 3-0 the last 3 times Washington was held to 2 runs or less in their prior game. The Nationals are also a perfect 3-0 to the over the last 3 times they've faced Ross. San Diego's bats have been quiet so far in this series but they'll take advantage of facing a young hurler this afternoon plus the Nats bullpen has struggled this season. The Padres entered this season having averaged scoring 5 runs per game in their 7 prior games. 8* OVER the total in Washington |
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05-23-18 | Royals v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals @ 1:15 ET - The total on this one opened up at an 8.5 and has now dropped to as low as a 7.5 as of early game day morning. This is offering us great line value on the over. Yes, Jakob Junis and Michael Wacha each have some impressive numbers on the season. However, Junis has been hit at a .283 clip in the month of May. He has compiled a 4.85 ERA in his last 5 starts. The Cardinals Wacha has a 4.50 ERA in his last two starts versus the Royals and they've gotten to him for 15 hits in 12 innings. The St Louis bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack in the majors but is certainly nothing special while the Kansas City bullpen is one of the worst in the majors based on ERA and batting average allowed. The Cardinals scored only one run yesterday but that was deceiving as they reached double digits in hits. This is another reason we're getting great line value here. The Cards have reached double digits in hits in 6 of their last 7 games and they had averaged 7 runs per game their last 4 games prior to yesterday's 5-1 loss. The over is a perfect 3-0 the last 3 times the Royals are off of a game where they allowed 2 runs or less. Each of the last 5 times the Cardinals have been held to 2 runs or less their next game has totaled at least 8 runs all 5 times. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in St Louis |
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05-22-18 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:40 ET - This is a classic contrarian pick for me but of course my big play on this match-up certainly doesn't come without good reason. The fact is that the Diamondbacks have been struggling badly at the plate and the Brewers really haven't fared much better of late. That said, why did the odds makers hang a 9 on this O/U involving a pair of struggling lineups? Precisely! This is one of those situations where it is important to dig a little deeper and there are a number of key factors supporting the over in this one. Matt Koch gets the start for the Diamondbacks and he got absolutely crushed by the Brewers when he faced them Wednesday. Not only that, he has now struck out just 6 in his last 18 and 2/3 innings on the mound. Over this same amount of time he has allowed 7 homers. When a starter is striking out less hitters than home runs allowed over a 3-start period there is definitely cause for concern. As for Milwaukee's Jhoulys Chacin, he is off of a strong start at Arizona Wednesday but, previously, he allowed 11 earned runs in 11 innings in his last 2 starts versus the Diamondbacks. Both of those were just last season so it is not as if this is "ancient history" either. The over is 9-3 this season in Arizona's road games when their money line range is between -125 and +125. The Brewers have scored 4 or more runs in 8 of their last 11 games. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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05-22-18 | Indians v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:05 ET - It will be a cool evening in Chicago with a light wind blowing in also. That, plus this pitching match-up, is helping to keep this total low. The fact is that these lineups did already face these starting pitchers about 4 weeks ago and I expect the rematch to go much better for the hitters. The Indians Trevor Bauer has allowed 12 hits in less than 8 innings of work in his two starts against the Cubs prior to enjoying success in last month's match-up. Chicago's Tyler Chatwood walked 5 in 6 innings at Cleveland in last month's match-up and was fortunate to escape with little damage done. He enters this start having had issues with too many walks all season long. The Indians Bauer is off of a great start but had allowed 5 runs (4 earned) on 11 hits in less than 5 innings of work in his prior start. The Cubs enter this game having scored an average of 7 runs in their last 4 games. Also, in their last 5 home games Chicago has averaged 8 runs per game. The Indians are off of a tough game where they scored just 1 run. However, prior to that game, Cleveland had scored 5 runs or more in 7 of their 9 previous games. Also, the over was 16-5-1 in the Indians 22 games prior to the low-scoring loss. The over is 4-1 in Chicago's last 5 home games and I look for the over to improve to 5-2 on the season when the Cubs enter a game after a day off. 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs |
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05-21-18 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Monday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - This is a contrarian play which is typical for me. The total has dropped from an opener of 9 down to an 8.5 as of game day morning and I see value fading the move and going with the over. Ironically, this will be the 4th time already this season that Mike Foltneywicz and Nick Pivetta have matched up. None of the first 3 match-ups resulted in an over. So, why the over here? First off repetition generally leads to more success for the hitters than the pitchers. In other words, it helps that the Braves have seen plenty of Pivetta and the Phillies have seen plenty of Foltneywicz early this season. I also like the fact that left-handed bats are hitting Pivetta at a .288 clip this season and Atlanta's active roster is loaded with left-handed sticks and switch-hitters. The over is 24-11 in Braves Monday games in recent seasons and also Atlanta is 4-1 to the over in their last 5 road games. The Phillies are 3-1 to the over in Monday games this season and also 7-3 to the over this season in home games where their money line range is from +125 to -125. 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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05-21-18 | Padres v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres @ 7:05 ET - This total was as high as an 8.5 and it briefly dropped as low as a 7 in some spots this morning before settling in at a 7.5 across the board. Another contrarian play for me but, of course, it is certainly not without merit. Of course the Padres are known as a poor hitting team but they actually have a .412 slugging percentage which ranks them 6th in the National League this season. Also, San Diego has some extra confidence at the plate since they have won 3 straight games and 6 of their last 8. In fact, the Padres have averaged scoring 5 runs per game their last 7 games. Another edge is that they just saw the Nationals Gio Gonzalez less than two weeks ago. The Nats southpaw enjoyed success that day but he followed that up by struggling in his start last week. He allowed 6 hits and 4 walks for a 2.00 WHIP in his 5-inning stint in a game that got suspended. Look for the Padres to enjoy some success at the plate against Gonzalez plus they'll take advantage of a Nationals bullpen that ranks as one of the worst in the majors with a 4.72 ERA. Of course San Diego is going to need all the runs they can get here because Washington is angry off of a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Dodgers and they are going to crush Robbie Erlin. The Padres southpaw is making a spot start here. His only other start this season saw him get crushed by the Dodgers. Also, in his only two starts at Washington in his career he has been absolutely hammered both times! Take advantage of the low total here. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season when the Nationals are a home fave in a range of -175 to -250. Also, the Padres are 7-0 to the over in Monday games this season! 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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05-20-18 | A's v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland A's @ 1:05 ET - The A's Daniel Mengden has some solid overall numbers on the season but note that the road has given him some trouble. Away from Oakland this season, he has compiled a 5.40 ERA with an ugly 1.65 WHIP. Speaking of ugly, the Blue Jays Joe Biagini is winless in his 3 starts this season and has compiled a 7.98 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP. He's facing an A's team that has won 5 of their last 6 games plus has averaged 5.7 runs per game their last 9 games. The Blue Jays have averaged 5.5 runs per game their last 4 games. The over was 5-3 in Oakland's last 8 games and 3-1 in Toronto's last 4 games prior to yesterday's push. The A's are 13-6 to the over including 7-3 to the over in road games, when their game has a posted O/U of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The A's are averaging 5 runs per game on the road this season and the Blue Jays are averaging 5.3 runs per game versus right-handed starters on the year. Add it all up and this one gets to double digits early Sunday. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-19-18 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 101 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies @ 4:05 ET - The Giants have, overall, struggled at the plate this season. But they entered this series having averaged 11.5 hits per game in their 6 prior games. Look for them to get back on track against Jon Gray this afternoon. Yes the Rockies right-hander has been piling up strikeouts but he also gave up 6 earned runs on 10 hits in just 5 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start. Also, Gray's last 2 starts at AT & T Park have seen him allow 9 hits and 5 walks for a total of 14 baserunners in just 8 and 1/3 innings of work! The good news for Rockies fans today is that Gray should get plenty of run support! Colorado will tee off against Chris Stratton. The Giants right-hander was hit hard by the Rockies last September (8 hits in 4 innings) and he is struggling this season. Stratton has a 6.89 ERA in his last 3 starts and 2 of those were on the road. At home this season he has struggled with a 7.00 ERA in his 4 starts thus far. Only 1 of Gray's 4 road starts has resulted in an under. Also, the over is a perfect 4-0 in Stratton's last 4 starts as he has allowed 18 earned runs in 17 innings spanning those 4 outings. Even though AT & T Park is a pitcher-friendly park, afternoon games here do tend to feature more runs and the total on this one has dropped from an opener of an 8 to a 7.5 so even more value is available now. The over is 6-2 in Giants Saturday games and look for the over to go to 8-4 this season in their home games with a money line range of -125 to +125. Big value here raises this one to top rating. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco |
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05-19-18 | Phillies v. Cardinals OVER 9 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Saturday 8* OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 2:15 ET - The Phillies Zach Eflin has pitched very well but he has made only 2 starts this season and they came against the Giants and Marlins. San Francisco is currently ranked 20th, and Miami dead last at 30th, for slugging percentage this season! Now he'll face a Cardinals team that is starting to surge at the plate with an average of 7 runs and 13 hits in their last 3 games. Also impacting Eflin here is he hasn't started in nearly 2 weeks. Oftentimes too much time between starts effects a pitchers rhythm. As for the Cardinals John Gant, his last MLB start was on the 7th of this month and he gave up 4 earned runs in just 5 and 1/3 innings. Also, in his lone career start versus the Phillies, Gant allowed 4 runs (3 earned) in 5 innings of work. The Cardinals right-hander is only getting this start because Carlos Martinez is out with a sore lat. Gant is 2-6 with a 4.71 ERA in his MLB career. The over is 5-2-1 the last 8 times the Phillies were off of a loss by 3 or more runs. 8* OVER the total in St Louis |
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05-18-18 | Diamondbacks v. Mets OVER 7 | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Friday 8* OVER the total in New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:10 ET - When you look at the total on this game you would think Justin Verlander is matched up with a healthy Clayton Kershaw. Seriously...even though both these teams have struggled at the plate recently there is also concern about BOTH of the starting pitchers in this match-up and, as a result, this total is far too low. It opened up at a 7 but the over is now available at significant plus money and some books have even dropped this one to as low as a 6.5 on the O/U. The fact is that the Diamondbacks Zack Godley has a 6.00 ERA in his last two starts and allowed 4 homers in the 12 innings spanning those two outings. The Mets Jacob deGrom is still in "recovery mode" after a hyperextended right elbow. The right-hander was therefore pulled after just 45 pitches in his most recent start and it took all of those 45 pitches just to get him through 1 scoreless inning versus the Phillies. The point is that there is reason to believe that both starting pitchers could labor early and often in this one and we have a very low total to work with here! The over is a long-term 29-10 when Arizona is playing after a day off and the over is also a long-term 18-6 when they are on the road with a posted total of 7 runs or less. The Mets, after a game in which they allowed 10 or more runs, are a long-term 19-7 to the over. 8* OVER the total in the New York Mets game |
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05-18-18 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Friday 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - It will by chilly in Boston this evening but certainly nothing like those early April games so certainly temperatures around 50 degrees and a rather light breeze is not unbearable. We are getting excellent value with this total because it opened up at a 10 and has dropped to a 9 as of early game day morning. The fact is that the Orioles, prior to their last 2 games, had been swinging the bats better. Baltimore's 7 prior games had seen the O's average 8.3 runs per game and 11 hits per game. Facing Drew Pomeranz should help their lineup get right back on track too. The Red Sox southpaw has consistently struggled this season. In his 5 starts he has a 5.47 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. In the month of May, out of the 15 AL teams, the Orioles rank 4th in the league with a .441 slugging percentage and the Red Sox rank 2nd with a .463 slugging percentage! Boston has scored 5 runs or more in 13 of their last 16 games and should have no trouble getting to Alex Cobb early and often. The Orioles right-hander is 0-2 with a 10.00 ERA in his last 2 starts versus the Red Sox! Cobb is 0-5 this season with a 7.06 ERA in his 6 starts this season! Yes he has pitched a little better recently but Fenway Park, even on a cool night, is still a hitter-friendly park and the BoSox have been hot at the plate for an extended period. I expect more of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Boston |
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05-18-18 | A's v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland A's @ 7:05 ET - The odds makers opened this one up at a 10 and it has dropped to a 9.5 as of early game day morning. I'll gladly take advantage of the additional value here. The A's are red hot at the plate right now and the Blue Jays Marco Estrada continues to be plagued by giving up too many homers. As for Oakland starter Brett Anderson, he wrapped up 2017 as a member of the Blue Jays and will likely be guilty of trying to over-throw here as he hopes for revenge versus Toronto. This won't end well for Anderson and he enters this start having allowed 13 runs (11 earned) on 18 hits and 5 walks in the 8 innings spanning his last two starts. The over is 5-2 in Oakland's last 7 games as the A's have averaged scoring 6.1 runs per game during this hot streak. The Blue Jays haven't been knocking the cover off of the ball but, since getting no-hit by James Paxton of the Mariners, Toronto has averaged about 5 runs and 9 hits per game their last 8 games. They're very likely to enjoy success against a struggling Anderson. Look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Toronto's last 4 games. Each team has played 7 Friday games this season and only 2 of the Jays games stayed under and only 1 of Oakland's games stayed under the total. Plenty of Friday night "fireworks" in this one. Estrada winless with a 6.75 ERA and 3 homers allowed in his 3 career starts versus Oakland. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-17-18 | Padres v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Top Play Special - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres @ 7:05 ET - I know the Padres are certainly one of the weaker hitting teams in the league. However, so do the odds makers and they opened this game up with a total of 8.5 runs and the markets have forced a drop to 8 runs. Grab the additional value here because the Pirates Chad Kuhl has allowed 6 homers in his last 3 starts! Also, in his two career starts versus San Diego, the Pittsburgh right-hander has walked 9 in 11 and 1/3 innings. As for the Padres Eric Lauer, he is struggling badly. The southpaw has seen the velocity on his fastball dip and plus he is having trouble locating the pitch. Lauer gave up 4 homers versus the Cardinals in his most recent start and he didn't even complete 3 innings. Even more concerning is that the start was at home. Note that on the road this season Lauer has a 10.12 ERA! He has been very hittable of late and now he faces a Pirates team that is averaging 6.5 run per their last 8 games. The Padres, as noted above, aren't known for their offensive production but winning leads to confidence and San Diego has won 3 of their last 4 games plus has scored 4 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 games. The over is 14-6 this season when Pittsburgh is off of a win. Also, when the Pirates have faced a left-handed starter, the over has gone 6-2 this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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05-17-18 | Dodgers v. Marlins OVER 8 | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 13 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 12:10 ET - This is certainly a contrarian play but I love spots like this. Neither the Marlins nor Dodgers have impressed at the plate this season but I believe yesterday's game is a sign of things to come. With this total currently at an 8 and possibly moving to an 8.5 in some spots, I am in play here. This is a great value as each team just has to get to 4 runs and then we can't lose this play as it can't end any less than a 5-4 final. I am well aware that the Dodgers are struggling bad and that the Marlins haven't hit well (overall) this season either. However, this is not a match-up of top tier pitchers ladies and gentlemen. Yes, Caleb Smith has pitched very well for the Marlins but he is still off of a start where he was quite fortunate as he gave up only 2 earned runs despite allowing 7 hits in just 5 and 1/3 innings of work. Earlier this season he went through a 3-start stretch where he allowed 11 earned runs in just 10 and 1/3 innings of work. Look for the Dodgers sticks to get going here (they did score 5 runs last night) as Smith's most recent start is a sign of a another mini-slump coming for him. Kenta Maeda gets the start for the Dodgers here and he has a 5.94 ERA on the road this season plus a 6.89 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. He is 0-2 in his 3 career starts versus the Marlins and he did allow 8 hits in 6 innings in his lone visit here. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season when Los Angeles enters a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games and for the over to improve to 4-1 in Miami's Thursday games. Also, the Marlins are 4-0 to the over the last 4 times they were off of a win. 8* OVER the total in Miami |
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05-16-18 | Dodgers v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
NOTE: Pitching Change for the Marlins but still going with this play on the over. In fact the change arguably strengthens what was already a Top Play. Elieser Hernandez is now expected to start for Miami. Though the 23-year old has some decent minor league numbers on his resume, he has only made 2 starts above the Single A level in the minors in his entire career! So now he jumps all the way from AA (2 starts) past AAA (0 appearances) to make a MLB start! I don't expect this to go well as Hernandez also has been hit hard in his 2 relief appearances this season for the Marlins. Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:10 ET - This is certainly a contrarian play but I love spots like this. As I have said before and I'll say it again here...the odds makers are quite sharp! Of course this is common knowledge but yet so often many people do underestimate this very important key factor. That said, this game is a prime example as the very first total that came up on this game was an 8 and the markets quickly pushed it to a 7.5 and now it is a 7 in almost all shops. This is a great value as each team just has to get to 3 runs and then we can't lose this play as it can't end any less than a 4-3 final. I am well aware that the Dodgers are struggling bad and that the Marlins haven't hit well this season either. However, this is not a match-up of top tier pitchers ladies and gentlemen. Yes, Caleb Smith has pitched very well for the Marlins but he is still off of a start where he was quite fortunate as he gave up only 2 earned runs despite allowing 7 hits in just 5 and 1/3 innings of work. Earlier this season he went through a 3-start stretch where he allowed 11 earned runs in just 10 and 1/3 innings of work. Look for the Dodgers sticks to get going here as Smith's most recent start is a sign of a another mini-slump coming for him. Walker Buehler gets the start for the Marlins here and his numbers on the season look great but this will be the first time he is giving a team (Miami) a 2nd look at him and his other starts have been against the Reds, Padres, and Giants. He has not faced a powerhouse of opposition and I look for the Marlins to enjoy some success as they get a second shot at him today. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 in Wednesday games for Los Angeles this season. Also, the Marlins are 3-0 to the over the last 3 times they were off of a win. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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05-16-18 | Cardinals v. Twins OVER 9 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs St Louis Cardinals @ 1:10 ET - With this total dropping to a 9 in some spots it is "go time" with this one. The Twins Lance Lynn is facing his former team and certainly the Cardinals know him well. As a result, this will not be a good match-up for Lynn and he has been struggling this season as evidenced by his 7.34 ERA on the year. The over is 6-1 in Lynn's 7 starts this season. He is opposed by the Cardinals Miles Mikolas whom shows good numbers on the season. So why would he get hit here? His strikeouts are down in his last two starts even though the most recent one was against light-hitting San Diego. Also what hasn't shown up in the box score yet is the fact that he has been getting hit a little harder in his recent outings. Eventually this will equate to more hits and runs. Keep in mind, the last 5 starts Mikolas made include 2 against the Reds when they were slumping badly plus 1 at pitcher-friendly San Diego. Prior to this his first two starts this season saw him allow 4 earned runs in each outing and a total of 15 hits in just 12 innings. Look for the Twins to get to him early and often here. Minnesota, with yesterday's 4-1 win, has scored 4 runs or more in 13 of last 15 games. Couple that with the fact that the Twins Lynn should get pounded by St Louis here and you have the right "recipe" for a high-scoring day game with warm weather expected at Target Field as well. 8* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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05-15-18 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies @ 3:40 ET - Jordan Lyles gets the start for the Padres here. He used to pitch for the Rockies. As a result, it certainly is noteworthy that he has had struggles with facing Colorado since he game to San Diego. Last season he faced them twice in starts late in the season and he struggled in both outings including allowing 4 homers in those two games and 3 of the home runs came right here at pitcher friendly Petco Park. That is a key element today because even though this is regarded as a pitcher friendly venue the ball does carry a little better in day games here. Also, Lyles has faced the Rockies a few times out of the bullpen this season so they are very familiar with him. Though Colorado's German Marquez has good numbers on the road this season, his last two road starts were against the injury-depleted Mets and the light-hitting Marlins. He still gave up 12 hits in 12 innings versus those two struggling teams and now Marquez has allowed 15 earned runs on 32 hits in 20 innings of work in his last 4 starts overall. In other words, don't be surprised if his struggles continue today. I know that, entering Monday's action, these teams have trended under. However, this pitching match-up is not conducive to a low-scoring game. Look for both teams to enjoy plenty of success at the plate and I'll gladly take advantage of a day game with a low total as early market moves have dropped this one to only 7.5 runs. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
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05-14-18 | A's v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Oakland A's @ 7:10 ET - Mild temperatures in the forecast for Boston Monday evening and the wind expected to be blowing out toward left center field at Fenway Park. This should lead to plenty of runs as both of these lineups have been quite hot. Before being held to just 2 runs in yesterday's loss Oakland had scored 16 runs in the first two games of their 3-game set with the Yankees in the Bronx. As for the Red Sox, they are off of a 5-3 win at Toronto. That brings Boston to 6-3 their last 9 games and, over their last 13 games, the Red Sox have averaged 5.3 runs per game! The A's Sean Manaea was throwing very well earlier this season but he has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Boston's Rick Porcello is 5-0 this season but he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start. Oakland's Manaea allowed 7 earned runs on 11 hits in less than 4 innings of work in his most recent start at Fenway Park. As for Porcello, it is still "early" this season and looking at his last full season numbers, note that in 2017 he went 7-11 with a 5.43 ERA in home games and 8-12 with a 5.47 ERA in night games. Of course this is a night game and it is at home and he got rocked in the Bronx in his most recent start. Signs of things to come Monday in my opinion! The over is 11-5 this season in A's games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 9-5 in Red Sox home games this season. These trends continue Monday. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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05-13-18 | Twins v. Angels OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #977 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins @ 4:05 ET - Yesterday Yankees pitcher Domingo German struggle in what was essentially his 3rd start after dominating a game he entered early and went 4 innings replacing Jordan Montgomery and then delivering another shutout performance in a start in his next outing. The point is the "3rd time was the charm" in terms of MLB hitters eventually getting to the rookie. I expect that to be the case now that "the book is out" on Angels rookie Fernando Romero today. This will be his 3rd start at the MLB level and he has yet to allow an earned run but he had guys on base in each of the first 5 innings of his most recent start and he also never pitched above the Double-A level of the minor leagues until this season. Also, Romero will be facing an Angels lineup loaded with some very dangerous hitters with plenty of experience. Shohei Ohtani has also found out what it is like when MLB hitters get to see a little more of a rookie hurler. After his stellar start to this season he has a 6.08 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in his last 3 starts. With the Twins extra inning win yesterday, they have now won 8 of their last 10 games, are playing with a lot of confidence, and have averaged scoring 5.3 runs per game their last dozen games. The Angels are 8-3 to the over this season as a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175. Minnesota is 13-7 to the over on the road this season including a PERFECT 5-0 to the over when they are a road dog in a range of +125 to +175 on the money line. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels |
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05-13-18 | Royals v. Indians OVER 8 | 2-11 | Win | 110 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals @ 1:10 ET - Corey Kluber is a fantastic pitcher but he has been making some "mistake" pitches too frequently in recent starts. That is why the Indians right-hander has allowed 8 homers in his last 4 starts. We have a low total to work with here and Kluber has allowed 3 earned runs in each of his last 4 outings. The Royals only scored 2 runs yesterday but they entered that game averaging 8.5 runs and 13.3 hits per game their last 4 games. The issue for Kansas City today will be starting pitcher Danny Duffy. The southpaw is 0-3 with a 6.14 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Indians. Also, Duffy enters this start having allowed 10 earned runs on 22 hits in his last 18 innings of work. He's facing a Tribe lineup that has been swinging the bats particularly well at home. In fact, Cleveland had gone over the total in 10 straight home games prior to yesterday's game falling just short. The Indians have averaged 9.1 runs and 12.6 hits per game in their last 7 home games! The over is 8-5 this season in Royals games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is 12-6 when Cleveland is off of a win this season. Also the Indians are 4-1 to the over in Saturday games and 7-3 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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05-12-18 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:10 ET - First off lets talk about the bullpens here. Miami's pen has a high ERA (5.34) on the season. Atlanta's pen has a lower ERA but they've been fortunate in working out of jams because the Braves bullpen has walked more batters than any other pen in the majors. Guess who is the 2nd worst team for walks surrendered...Marlins of course! That is why both of these bullpens have a very high WHIP so far this season. That certainly could come into play in this one because both starting pitchers are likely to run into some trouble. The Braves Mike Soroka has averaged just 5 innings in his first two starts at the MLB level and he is only 20 years old and had never pitched above the AA level of the minors until this season. As for the Marlins Jarlin Garcia, the southpaw is off of a rough start at Wrigley Field. This is his first year as a starter and last year (his first in majors) working exclusively out of the bullpen he had a solid 2.45 ERA in day games but a 5.49 ERA in night games! The Braves .287 batting average versus left-handed pitching ranks #1 in the majors! As for the Marlins, they will be buoyed by yesterday's confidence-building win in which they pounded out 14 hits. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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05-12-18 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox @ 4:05 ET - David Price has fantastic long-term numbers versus the Blue Jays but this will be his first start against Toronto since the 2016 season and the fact is he is not in good current form right now! The Red Sox southpaw has an 8.21 ERA in his last 5 starts and he is facing a Jays team that is tied for 2nd in the majors for home runs and for extra base hits so far this season. They have some pop in their lineup and should enjoy success against a struggling price. Boston should also be pounding the ball this afternoon because they have had Marco Estrada's number. The Toronto right-hander has given up 13 runs (12 earned) in the 7 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 2 starts versus the Red Sox. Entering Saturday's action, Boston's .455 slugging percentage is tops in the majors and Estrada has already allowed 9 homers in 7 starts this season. I expect a slugfest here featuring two lineups that notch a lot of extra base hits matched up with a pair of starting pitchers very likely to struggle as you can see per the above. Another nice edge here is that each team held some starters out of their lineup yesterday so those guys will be back in there today. 8* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-11-18 | A's v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Oakland A's @ 7:05 ET - Had to wait for the total to come out on this one since there was a delay in the A's announcing a starting pitcher. It was well worth the wait and it is now "go time" with this one. The total is a 9.5 and Oakland's Kendall Graveman has struggled badly this season plus the Yankees will be fired up off of a loss. I also like the flip side of this equation in that Sonny Gray will be facing his former team for the first time and, though he has pitched a little better recently, Oakland will have great familiarity on what to expect from him here. Also, Gray has had some struggles this season and might put extra pressure on himself in his first shot against his former club. Gray has a 6.00 ERA and 1.76 WHIP on the season. I know the A's have not been hitting well lately but when you look at the pitchers they've been facing that certainly has had a lot do with it. Their sticks should enjoy a breakout game versus Gray. As for the Yankees sluggers, they should feast on Graveman as he enters this start 0-5 with an 8.90 ERA and 1.84 WHIP on the season. Oakland is 3-1-1 to the over this season after an off day. New York is 8-2 to the over when off of a loss this season. Also, the Yankees are 11-2 to the over when facing a team with a losing record. Look for the over to improve to 3-1 in Graveman's last 4 starts and 4-1 on the season in Gray's home starts! 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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05-11-18 | White Sox v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Friday 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox @ 2:20 ET - Had to wait for the total to come out on this one since it is as Wrigley Field and the weather tends to be a significant factor there. It was well worth the wait and it is now "go time" with this one. The fact is that it will be a chilly afternoon in Chicago and the wind will be blowing in. However, in this case that actually helps us because we're getting a low total in which it is quite likely that both pitchers will struggle. The White Sox Carson Fulmer gave up 4 homers in his most recent start and he has nearly as many walks as strikeouts over his last 5 starts. The over in those outings is 4-1 (80%) and and I expect another one here. The Cubs will send Tyler Chatwood to the mound in this one and the right-hander ranks among the league leaders in a category (walks allowed) that you certainly don't want to be a leader in! Just like Fulmer, the over is 4-1 (80%) in his last 5 starts. His last 4 starts have totaled less than 22 innings and yet Chatwood has 20 walks in those outings. The White Sox have lost 5 straight games and the over is 9-1 this season in ChiSox games when they enter the contest on a losing streak of 3 or more consecutive games. The White Sox bullpen is one of worst pens in the majors too! Look for the over to go to 4-1 this season when the Cubs are playing after an off day. 8* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game |
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05-10-18 | Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners @ 7:05 ET - As you would expect, Blue Jays southpaw J.A. Happ has a lot more success against left-handed hitters than right-handed bats. Not only will the Mariners be loaded up on the right-handed side of the plate, the only left-handed bats likely to be in the lineup for Seattle here are guys that have had some success against Happ. Also, the Mariners .266 batting average away from home this season is one of the top marks in the majors. Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the Blue Jays had a dozen hits in the game. As for the Mariners, they had averaged 6.3 runs and 11 hits per game in their 3 games prior to struggling at the plate yesterday. The problem for the Mariners is that, other than the no-hitter by Paxton, they have allowed double digits in hits in each of their other games dating back to Friday of last week! The Blue Jays should enjoy plenty of success against a struggling Mike Leake. The Mariners right-hander has an 8.79 ERA on the road this season and he also has an ugly 9.21 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. The over is 6-1 in Leake's starts this season and only 2 of Happ's 7 starts this season have resulted in an under. Prior to yesterday's under, the over was 12-6 in Seattle's road games this season. Only 2 of the Blue Jays last 9 games versus a right-handed starter have stayed under the total. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-10-18 | Giants v. Phillies OVER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants @ 1:05 ET - The Giants Ty Blach is off of a solid start at Atlanta but he was successful in pitching to contact in that game. The San Francisco southpaw doesn't get a lot of strikeouts. That type of approach is not going to work at Citizens Bank Park early this afternoon with warm temperatures and the wind blowing out toward center at a good clip. The Phillies have won 5 of their last 7 games thanks to an offense that has averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. Look for more of the same this afternoon. Though i do expect Philadelphia to out-slug the Giants here, it may not be a crisp start for Vincent Velasquez. The right-hander has a 6.75 ERA in his home starts this season. All 3 have gone over the total (3-0) and, though I like the Phillies in this match-up, I feel the best value is with the over. The over is also 3-0 in Phillies home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. San Francisco's Blach got rocked for 6 earned runs in less than 6 innings in his most recent start versus the Phillies. Velasquez compiled a 6.10 ERA at home last season and has a 7.00 ERA in day games this season. Overall, the over is 10-4 in the Giants last 14 games and the over is 10-5 in the Phillies last 15 games. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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05-09-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - This is a contrarian play as most will be looking at the under here because both of these pitchers have great numbers this season. The key here is that Red Sox/Yankees always brings a bit of a different "element" to the equation and I expect both starters to run into trouble here. The Yankees Masahiro Tanaka was pounded for 6 earned runs in 5 innings against the Red Sox last month. Boston's Rick Porcello was pounded for 6 runs (5 earned) the last time he faced the Yanks at Yankee Stadium. The over is 14-6 in Yankees home games this season and this includes 7-1 when New York is a favorite in a price range of -125 to -175. The over is 15-8 in Yankees games versus right-handed starters this season and that includes 3 of the last 4 going over the total. The Red Sox managed only 2 runs in yesterday's loss but they had previously averaged 6.1 runs per game in their last 7 games and scored 5 or more in all 7 games! The Yankees, with yesterday's win, have now won 7 straight. Though that was a low-scoring win, the Yanks previous 6 wins in the streak saw them average 5.5 runs per game. I am looking for a 6-5 type game here and certainly expecting nothing less than a 5-4 result which also puts in the winners circle! 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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05-09-18 | Tigers v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers @ 2:05 ET - The Rangers got Adrian Beltre back yesterday and he went 3 for 4 and drove in a pair of runs. He also has enjoyed success against the Tigers Francisco Liriano in his career. The Detroit southpaw has struggled in his last two visits to Texas and allowed 5 earned runs in each of those two starts. Also, it is going to be a very hitter friendly afternoon in Arlington with warm temperatures and dry air and this ballpark is already known for favoring hitters under normal conditions. An afternoon game with this type of weather is particularly supportive of a big day at the plate for both teams. The Rangers Bartolo Colon has been quite the story again this season but is he is starting to fade as I expected. He allowed 4 homers in his most recent start and he simply was very fortunate they were all solo bombs. Colon has now allowed 7 homers in his last 3 starts and he also has a 5.68 ERA in his 2 home starts this season. The Rangers have allowed 6.7 runs per game in their last 10 games and Texas has not allowed less than 5 runs in any of those 10 games! The Tigers have pounded out 11.3 hits per game in their last 6 games and this game has the makings of a slugfest. The Rangers have had just 2 unders in their last 12 games. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Texas |
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05-09-18 | Mets v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -114 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets @ 12:35 ET - I got burned by this play yesterday (ended up a push for most everyone) as I had the over 9 runs and the Reds scored 7 and yet the game still didn't go over the total. We'll get some payback today as the Reds Sal Romano made the mistake of barehanding a grounder in his last start and is okay to go here but I won't be surprised if he struggles. Keep in mind he has nearly as many walks as strikeouts this season and he is not as impressive on the mound as his ERA would lead you to believe. Also he gave up 8 hits in 5 innings the last time he faced the Mets. New York is starting Zach Wheeler and the right-hander has an 8.40 ERA in his last 3 starts and is struggling. More of the same expected here as the over improves to 4-0 in his last 4 starts and 4-1 in Romano's home starts on the season. New York's over is 5-1 this season when they are on the road in game where the Mets money line ranges from a -125 to a +125. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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05-08-18 | Mets v. Reds OVER 9 | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - I used this team match-up as a free pick yesterday and it easily flew over the total. Today I am using it as a premium pick as I see no reason we won't see another high-scoring game and plus the total on this one has dropped from a 9.5 to a 9 this morning. This is offering great value on the over. The Reds Luis Castillo has great stuff but the numbers don't lie. He currently is slumping. The Cincinnati right-hander is 0-2 in his last 3 starts and has allowed 10 earned runs on 22 hits in just 12 innings spanning those 3 outings! Speaking of struggling hurlers, the Mets Jason Vargas is in a class of his own right now! The New York southpaw will be making his 3rd start of the season and, so far, he is 0-2 with a 16.19 ERA and a 3.00 WHIP in his first two outings! The over is 2-0 in Vargas' starts this season and the over was 5-1 in Castillo's first six starts this season before his most recent one stayed under the total. Even though Castillo allowed only 2 earned runs in that one he was fortunate as he allowed 9 hits in his 6 innings of work. The over is a long-term 18-11 when Cincinnati is a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175. Also, the Reds have had just 14 unders (28%!) in their last 50 Tuesday games. The Mets are 10-5 to the over in road games this season and that includes a PERFECT 5-0 YTD when their money line is in a range of -125 to +125 and it is currently in that range Tuesday. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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05-08-18 | Royals v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | Top | 15-7 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #914 Tuesday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - Many will be looking at the over in this match-up because the O's Dylan Bundy is off of back to back tough starts and the Royals Danny Duffy has had a tough start to this season. However, this is actually an ideal spot for an under. Back to the pitchers in a minute but, first off, the Royals are averaging only 3.1 runs per game versus right-handed starters this season. The Orioles are averaging just 2.9 runs per game at home. Baltimore is averaging just 7.2 hits per game their last 9 games. The Royals have averaged just 3.3 runs and 6 hits per game in their last 3 games. Bundy had a 1.42 ERA in his first 5 starts this season and 3 of the 5 were at home. Look for him to bounce back here at home as he went 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in his 2 starts versus the Royals last season. As for KC's Duffy, he is 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in his 7 starts versus the Orioles in his career. The O's are loaded with free swingers and Duffy works off of deception as his key attribute. Don't be surprised when the Orioles struggle again to make good contact tonight. Duffy is off of a tough start at Boston but, prior to that he was quite solid in 4 of his previous 5 outings. In those 4 starts the Royals southpaw allowed only 15 hits while piling up 22 strikeouts in 23 innings of work. More of the same expected here as Duffy gets right back on track. The under is 6-1 in his 7 starts versus the Orioles and the under is 2-0 in Bundy's two lifetime starts versus the Royals. The under is 12-4 when Kansas City faces a team with a losing record this season and also the under is a perfect 5-0 when the Royals are playing after a day off. The under is 10-4 in Orioles home games this season. 10* UNDER the total in Baltimore |
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05-07-18 | Giants v. Phillies OVER 9 | 0-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Monday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants @ 7:05 ET - The Giants Jeff Samardzija had a "shaky start" versus the Padres in his most recent outing. Also, the San Francisco right-hander has an 8.18 ERA in his career outings versus the Phillies. Additionally, it is even worse for Samardzija when he is on the road to face Philly as he has compiled a 15.43 ERA in his career games at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies counter with Zach Eflin whom had a great start in what his first outing of this season last week versus Miami. However, the Marlins are really struggling this season and now Eflin has to face a red-hot Giants team. SF is 7-1 their last 8 games and the Giants have averaged 6.5 runs per game in their last 10 games. Eflin's last two starts versus San Francisco have seen him allow 6 earned runs in just 5 innings in each outing! The over is 4-1 in Samardzija's starts versus the Phillies and the over is 3-0 in Eflin's starts versus the Giants! The Phillies struggled on their road trip but they are now back home where they are 11-5 this season and have averaged 5.1 runs per game. In other words, look for back and forth slugfest here as there have been only 2 unders this season in the 8 Phils homes games where the Phillies have had a money line ranging from -125 to +125. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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05-06-18 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 9 | 5-3 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 2:10 ET - The White Sox James Shields is off of a strong start but, not only is that rare for him, it came on the road. Today he gets the call again in Chicago where he has allowed 11 earned runs in 11 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. The last two times he has faced the Twins, Shields has compiled a 5.73 ERA and he has walked 7 in just 11 innings. Shields will be opposed by Minnesota's Kyle Gibson. The Twins right-hander has allowed 16 hits in less than 13 innings of work spanning his last two starts versus the White Sox. I know Gibson has enjoyed some early season success this year but this is still a guy whom went a combined 18-21 with a 5.07 ERA the past two seasons combined. Those long-term numbers don't lie and the over is 3-0 in the White Sox last 3 games and the over is 13-3 in Minnesota's last 16 games. Also, the Twins are 11-4 to the over in road games this season and 8-2 to the over in games against teams with a losing record. The White Sox are 10-6 to the over in their games against teams with a losing record this season and also 6-2 to the over in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. 8* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox |
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05-05-18 | Tigers v. Royals OVER 9 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers @ 4:15 ET - The Royals bullpen is 5-7 with a 6.07 ERA (ranks dead last in majors). The Tigers bullpen is not much better as they are 5-10 with a 4.88 ERA so far this season. The relievers could prove to be significant factors here as Detroit's Jordan Zimmerman has a 10.12 ERA and 2.13 WHIP in his 3 road starts this season. Kansas City's Jason Hammel has 5 walks against just 3 strikeouts in his last two starts and he has allowed 12 runs (11 earned) in 11 and 1/3 innings spanning those two starts. Hammel's most recent start went over the total and snapped an under streak. Zimmerman's most recent start stayed under the total but, previously, every start this season (4 of them) in which he pitched at least 1 full inning went over the total. Yesterday's game between these teams stayed under the total but Detroit was previously 8-4 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Great weather for an over this afternoon at Kauffman Stadium as temperatures will be warming up into the mid-80s with light winds and very dry air. The ball will carry well. 8* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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05-04-18 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday's game flew over the total and the Rangers bats continue to heat up. Texas has won 5 of its last 8 games. The Rangers have averaged 6 runs per game their last 7 games and have reached double digits in hits in 4 of those 7 games. Rick Porcello has great numbers for the Red Sox so far this season. However, last season he did go 8-12 with a 5.47 ERA in his night starts. Though he was successful at Texas last season he did allow 2 homers in that game and, in his two prior starts versus the Rangers, Porcello was rocked for 23 hits in less than 13 innings of work. He'll be opposed by Bartolo Colon tonight. The veteran right-hander is finally coming back down to earth in his two most recent starts. Colon has allowed 7 earned runs on 13 hits including 3 homers in less than 13 innings of work. He also had just 2 strikeouts in each start. The Red Sox will be putting the ball in play all night as the Rangers bullpen has allowed a .264 batting average which ranks them in the bottom five of the majors! This total opened up at a 9.5 and dropped to a 9. I am going contrarian and going with the over in this one. The Red Sox have averaged 6 runs per game their last 6 games and 4 of the 6 have gone over the total. Boston is 15-8 to the over versus right-handed starters this season and 5-1 to the over in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Texas over is 50-31 in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and the Rangers are also 8-3 to the over this season when off of a win. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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05-04-18 | Marlins v. Reds OVER 9 | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Early Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Friday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins @ 7:10 ET - This match-up features the two worst bullpens in the National League as the relievers for each of these teams have a combined ERA above 5.00 so far this season. That could prove to be a significant factor here as there is reason to believe that neither pitcher will work deep into this game. The Marlins Wei-Yin Chen is making just his 2nd start since coming off of the disabled list and went just 5 and 1/3 innings in his first start. The Reds Sal Romano has averaged just 5 innings per start this season and has not worked more than 6 innings in any outing. We should get at least 3 to 4 innings of bullpen from both of these clubs tonight and that will certainly help this over if needed. The fact is that I expect some success against these starters though too. Chen has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 6 of his last 10 road starts. Romano walked 6 in less than 4 innings the last time he faced the Marlins and he has nearly as many walks as strikeouts this season. He threw a ton of fastballs in his most recent start versus the Twins and that is not going to get the job done against this Miami team. The over is 3-0 in Romano's home starts this season. The over is 8-3 in the Reds last 11 games. When the Marlins are on the road with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs only 17 of their last 46 games have stayed under the total! 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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05-03-18 | Braves v. Mets OVER 9 | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Thursday 8* OVER the total in New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves @ 1:10 ET - The Braves Julio Teheran left his last start due to tightness in the shoulder of his throwing arm. The Mets will be seeing him for the 2nd time in a span of two weeks and should enjoy a lot more success at home. It is going to be hot at Citi Field today with high temperatures getting into the low 90s, dry air, and a strong southwest wind blowing out. Conditions are perfect for the hitters to have a huge day. The Mets Jason Vargas got absolutely rocked in his first start this season. The big concern is that it was against a light-hitting Padres team and was at pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego. In other words, any improvement today is unlikely given that Vargas will be facing a much stronger lineup and also facing them on a hitter-friendly afternoon. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Braves Thursday games this season. Also, when off of a shutout win, Atlanta is a long-term 11-5 to the over. New York is a long-term 24-12 to the over in Thursday games including a perfect 3-0 this season. Also, the Mets have had just just 6 unders the last 17 times they were off of a shutout loss. 8* OVER the total in the New York Mets game |
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05-02-18 | Padres v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres @ 3:45 - Last night's game stayed under the total but, prior to this, both of these teams had been trending over the total. Also, the ball tends to carry better in day games at AT & T Park. Even though temperatures will only be around 60 degrees today in San Francisco, the wind will be picking up and blowing toward left center at a good clip. This will help the "carry effect" even more on balls hit well and we should see plenty of those this afternoon given this pitching match-up. The Giants Derek Holland is winless on the season and he has a 7.07 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Padres Clayton Richard is off of back to back losses and has a 5.35 ERA on the season and his ERA is 6.30 on the road this year. The over is 4-1 the last 5 times San Francisco has faced a southpaw starter. The over was 3-0 in San Diego's 3 games prior to last night's low-scoring win staying under the total. The over is 7-4 in Giants day games, 10-6 in their home games, and 11-6 when facing a left-handed starter. Coming into yesterday's game the Giants had averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their 5 prior games and the Padres had averaged 11.3 hits per game in their 3 prior games. The hot hitting for both clubs is likely to resume Wednesday given the pitching match-up and the favorable hitting conditions in an afternoon game by the bay. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco |
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05-02-18 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 1:05 ET - Spring is finally here in the New England area and temperatures will rise into the 80s today in Boston. Also, the wind will be blowing fairly strong toward right-center at Fenway Park for this one. This combination should lead to plenty of runs as there certainly is reason to believe the pitchers will struggle today. One of the keys is that the bullpens got stretched out because last night's game went 13 innings. The other keys are named Danny Duffy and Drew Pomeranz. The Royals Duffy has allowed 10 earned runs in 10 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts. The Red Sox Pomeranz has struggled since returning from the disabled list. His curveball just isn't breaking sharply like it normally would and his fastball velocity is down a few ticks as well. The Boston southpaw has a 7.27 ERA in his two starts since coming off of the DL and he allowed 3 homers in 5 innings in his lone home start. Today's game has the makings of a slugfest. Kansas City's Duffy allowed 3 homers in his most recent start at Fenway Park. The over is 4-0 in KC's last 4 road games. The over is 9-4 in Red Sox home games. More of the same here early Wednesday. 8* OVER the total in Boston |
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04-30-18 | Rangers v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Texas Rangers @ 6:10 ET - The Rangers Cole Hamels has only 1 win in 6 career starts versus the Indians as he has compiled a 6.11 ERA versus Cleveland. Not surprisingly, given those numbers, the over is 5-0 in Hamels 6 career starts versus the Tribe. The Texas southpaw got crushed at Cleveland in his most recent start here which was in late June last year. The Indians send Trevor Bauer to the mound for this one. The Indians right-hander has decent numbers versus the Rangers in his career but only 1 of the 4 games has resulted in an under. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in Rangers Monday games on the season. Texas road games have resulted in just 1 under in their last 6 games away from home. Cleveland is 7-1 to the over in their last 8 home games and that includes 4 in a row after yesterday's 10-4 loss the Mariners. I know both of these starting pitchers have decent numbers this season but their long-term history points to overs when matched up with the opponent they'll be facing today. Also, this is a low total of 8 runs and the Rangers, prior to yesterday's ugly loss, had scored at least 4 runs in 6 of their last 7 games. The Indians have scored at least 4 runs in 5 straight games. The significance in this is that a 4-4 game guarantees us of no less than a 5-4 final and that puts us in the winners circle tonight! 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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04-29-18 | Reds v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Cincinnati Reds @ 2:10 ET - Strong south wind and mild temperatures at Target Field this afternoon. It will make for a nice day for the hitters. The south wind blowing out toward the left field corner. The key here is that Jose Berrios is coming off of a rough start for the Twins as he got hit hard by the Yankees in his most recent start. As great as his overall numbers have been last season and so far this year, he is much more susceptible to left-handed sticks than righties. That will prove to be an issue here as the Reds are loaded with left-handed lumber and also have a couple of switch-hitters. Cincinnati is likely to load their lineup from that side of the plate in this one and should enjoy success on a hitter-friendly day at Target Field. As for the Twins hitting in this one, they are likely to pound Tyler Mahle. The Reds right-hander has a 6.51 ERA and 2.17 WHIP in his two road starts this season. He has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts. The over was 7-1 in the Twins last 8 games prior to yesterday's game staying under the total. The over was 5-1 in the Reds last 6 games prior to Saturday's low-scoring loss. Long-term the over is 88-53 when the Twins are facing a team with a losing record. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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04-28-18 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 9 | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 4:05 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total but look for this one to fly over the number. The weather will be very nice in Boston with high temperatures up near 70 degrees and a south wind blowing out toward left field. The key to this match-up is that the Red Sox already saw Yonny Chirinos earlier this month. Though he enjoyed success in that start, he has certainly cooled off since then and a "second look" for the Boston lineup plus facing him on a mild afternoon at Fenway Park is all going to combine to lead to a huge day for the Red Sox hitters. As for Boston starter David Price, he has struggled recently and has a 5.93 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He has enjoyed success against the Rays but that was earlier this season when he was throwing well. Now Tampa Bay is getting a 3rd look at him already in a span of just a month and, with his current form a bit "off", look for the Rays to take advantage. 8* OVER the total in Boston |
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04-26-18 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Thursday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins @ 1:05 ET - With yesterday's game going over the total, it has now been 6 straight overs for the Twins and the Yankees continue to go over on an almost nightly basis! The Yankees are 11-1 to the over this season in their games against teams with a losing record. The Twins are 8-3 to the over in road games this season. Minnesota's Kyle Gibson has allowed 9 earned runs in 10 and 2/3 innings in his last 2 starts. In his career, Gibson is 1-4 versus the Yankees with an ugly 9.31 ERA. The Yanks will have southpaw Jordan Montgomery toeing the rubber this afternoon. He has allowed 14 hits in the 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts at home. Montgomery was hit hard last season in a July start at Target Field as the Twins got to him. I expect them to get to him again here on a pleasant afternoon in the Bronx. The wind will be blowing out toward right and temperatures will reach the mid to upper 60s. 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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04-26-18 | Tigers v. Pirates OVER 8 | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers @ 12:35 ET - These teams combined for 34 runs in yesterday's double-header and plenty of bullpen got used as a result. Should either Michael Fulmer or Ivan Nova run into some trouble here (and there is reason to believe they both will) then a tapped out bullpen will have to be called upon. The Tigers Fulmer has allowed 22 hits in the 15 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. He has a 6.48 ERA in his two road starts this season. The Pirates Nova gave up 5 earned runs in just 5 and 1/3 innings in his lone home start this season. The over is 6-1 in Pittsburgh's inter-league games this season. The over is 27-11 in Detroit's Thursday games (including 3-0 this season) and Thursday's are often a "getaway day" in MLB with the next trip (a weekend series on tap) and so there is some validity to that "day of the week" trend as this has been a multi-season pattern for the Tigers. I also like the fact that the weather will be warming into the low 60s in this one. 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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04-25-18 | Mariners v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners @ 2:10 ET - Yesterday's game was a 1-0 win. I like grabbing overs the day after a pitchers duel. The White Sox James Shields is struggling badly and very hittable. I also like grabbing overs in a game where I am projecting the home team pitcher to get hit hard. The reason being is that the home team usually is more comfortable (and hits better) at home so I am always looking for good spots for a road team to get their fair share of runs as well and this one certainly fits the bill. The White Sox are 3-0 to the over this season when off of a shutout loss. Also, the ChiSox are an overall 9-4 to the over off of a loss this year. They should bounce back against Felix Hernandez. The Mariners right-hander has a 7.80 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. Also, he has given up 24 hits in the 19 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the White Sox. As for Chicago's Shields, he has been absolutely crushed for 14 earned runs in less than 9 innings of work in his last 2 starts versus the Mariners. Also, Shields comes into this start with a 5.96 ERA on the season and he has walked 9 in less than 12 innings of work spanning his last two starts. The over is 3-1 in his 4 starts this season. Also, the over is 8-3 when Seattle is off of a win this season. Additionally, the Mariners are 11-4 to the over against right-handed starters this year. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game |
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04-24-18 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 48 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Each of these teams are off of a pair of low-scoring games that wrapped up their respective weekend series. However, prior to that, the Red Sox had averaged scoring 8.1 runs per game in their 10 prior games and the Blue Jays had averaged scoring 8.3 runs per game in their 6 prior games. Both teams have fully capable lineups and Rick Porcello, though pitching well this season, has allowed 11 earned runs in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts versus the Blue Jays. As for J.A. Happ, though he has pitched well in recent starts versus Boston, he has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his two home starts this season. Also, the Jays southpaw has allowed 5 homers in his 22 innings this season while Boston's Porcello has allowed 5 homers in his last 11 innings versus Toronto. Also, entering this outing, none of Happ's last 3 starts and none of Porcello's last 3 starts have resulted in an under. The over is 4-1 in Blue Jays games versus teams with a winning record this season and the over is 3-0 in Boston's games versus teams with a winning record this season. 8* OVER the total in Toronto |
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04-23-18 | A's v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Oakland A's @ 8:05 ET - The Rangers Matt Moore is 0-3 with an 8.76 ERA in his 3 career starts made at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Facing the A's is unlikely to help him as the Texas southpaw has only 1 win in his 5 career starts versus Oakland and he has compiled an ugly 7.07 ERA in those outings. The Athletics will have Trevor Cahill on the mound for this one. Over the past 3 seasons he is 2-8 with a 5.21 ERA in road games. Also, Cahill compiled a 4.89 ERA in night games the past 3 seasons. He has been a better pitcher at home and in day games. That said, a road outing at night at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park is not going to do him any favors. The line opened up at a 10 but dropped to a 9.5 in some spots already as some saw the 10 as being "too much" in this one. I certainly don't see it that way and am going contrarian and going with the over in this match-up. The over is 7-3 in the A's last 10 games as they've averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this solid long-term stretch. I won't be surprised to see this total stay at 10 in a lot of shops and then possibly even move up to a 10.5 later in the day. Note that the Rangers are 3-0 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. Look for that record to stay perfect on the year but I am happy to grab the 9.5 while we can. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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04-22-18 | Cubs v. Rockies OVER 10 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs @ 3:10 ET - Temperatures will warm into the mid-60s this afternoon in Denver and the air will be in drier than it was last night plus the warmer temperatures certainly will be nice for the hitters. I know that Jose Quintana blamed his struggles versus Atlanta on pitching in cold temperatures but remember he also struggled at Miami (no cold air there!) earlier this season. He has now had 1 good outing but been awful in the other two starts and I don't think an afternoon start at Coors Field is going to do him any favors. As for German Marquez, he is off of a fantastic starts in his most recent outing but that was on the road. At home this season he has an 8.21 ERA. Keep in mind, he finished up last season with a 5.25 ERA over his final 4 home starts and Coors Field is simply not an easy place to pitch. After the Cubs lineup produced only 2 runs yesterday look for them to have a breakout game today. Marquez walked 6 in less than 5 innings of work in his first home start this season. He then benefited from facing light-hitting San Diego in his next start but he is not so fortunate here. Chicago had averaged scoring 10.3 runs per game in their last 4 games prior to last night's dismal effort. Look for the Cubs to bounce back big and the over was 4-0 in Chicago's 4 games prior to yesterday and 4-1-1 in the Rockies last 6 prior to yesterday's 5-2 win. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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04-22-18 | Pirates v. Phillies OVER 8 | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 1:35 ET - Nick Pivetta has pitched very well for the Phillies so far this season but I believe his most recent start could be a sign of something. It took Pivetta 98 pitches to get through 5 innings and he only recorded 2 strikeouts while giving up 5 hits in those 5 innings. Keep in mind his numbers have been helped by 2 starts against miserable Reds and Marlins. In his other two outings he has allowed 4 earned runs on 10 hits and 2 walks with just 5 strikeouts in 9 innings of work. I look for a solid hitting team like the Pirates to get to him early and often. As for the Pittsburgh starter, Trevor Williams, he does have a low ERA on the season but has allowed 18 hits in his last 17 and 1/3 innings plus has walked 6 in 12 innings in his two road start this season. He faces a Phillies team that is averaging 5 runs per game in its last dozen games and is 12-3 in their last 15 games. Philadelphia is playing with a lot of confidence right now and should again have a solid day at the plate. Temperatures are expected to warm into the mid-60s this afternoon in Philly and it should be a great day for the hitters. 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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04-21-18 | Cubs v. Rockies OVER 10 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:10 ET - After combining for 21 runs yesterday's game, don't be surprised if we see another wild one tonight. Temperatures in the upper 40s not bad for this time of year in Denver and the winds, though light, are also expected to be shifting around to the south or southeast which will be pushing balls to left field. Ton of extra base hits in yesterday's game and more of the same expected here. Yu Darvish will be making his first ever start at Colorado. In his most recent start he got frustrated by a balk call and then unraveled from there. Wait until he gets frustrated by pitching in conditions where his pitches just don't have the same movement they normally would. Look for Darvish to get frustrated here and struggle like many hurlers do in their first starts at Coors Field. The Rockies did see him (and hit him hard) in September and now they get a shot at him at home. Darvish has struggled in 2 of his 3 starts this season. Tyler Anderson gets the start for the Rockies here and the southpaw was hit hard in his lone start versus the Cubs in his career. Also, he is coming off of a start in which he walked 6 batters in 6 innings. Prior to that he benefited from facing the light-hitting Padres twice this season. Now he faces a powerful Chicago lineup coming off of a 16-run outburst yesterday and this gets ugly quick in my opinion. The Cubs have gone over in 4 straight games and the Rockies have just 1 under in their last 6 games. Look for Chicago's over to improve to 6-2 in night games this season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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04-21-18 | Indians v. Orioles OVER 9 | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Indians @ 4:05 ET - Cleveland's Mike Clevinger biggest problem last season was command and he could be unraveling again. He certainly looked "off" in his start versus the Blue Jays and allowed 4 earned runs in just 4 innings. In his prior start, Clevinger allowed just 1 earned run but 10 hits in 7 and 1/3 innings. He threw 110 pitches in that start which was a career high and likely should have been pulled sooner. The rough outing versus the Jays could be as sign of things to come. As for Orioles starter Chris Tillman everything has been rough as he is 0-3 with an 11.92 ERA this season. Now he faces an Indians team that, prior to yesterday's 3-1 loss, had averaged 12.2 hits per game in their last 5 games. As they've been able to play in warmer weather the Cleveland bats are also starting to warm up. One could argue that Tillman could be better here today because he is pitching at home. However, last season he was 1-4 with a 6.58 ERA at home while allowing 17 homers in 14 innings and issuing more walks than strikeouts! Also, the last two times he faced the Indians, Tillman has allowed a total of 9 earned runs in 10 innings and Cleveland has hit 4 homers against him! 8* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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04-21-18 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Saturday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 1:05 ET - The Yankees are now 12-2-1 to the over this month after yesterday's 8-5 loss to the Blue Jays flew over the total. Toronto's Marcus Stroman has struggled with his command this season. The Jays right-hander has allowed at least 4 earned runs in all 3 of his starts (including one against the Yankees) even though he hasn't lasted more than 5 innings in any of the outings. Jordan Montgomery was rocked for 4 earned runs on 10 hits in just 4 and 1/3 innings in his most recent home start. Now he faces a Blue Jays team that is #1 in the AL in slugging percentage in day games this season with a .482 mark. Who is #2 in the AL in slugging percentage this season? The Yankees with a .461 mark. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 in Toronto's day games this season as both teams continue to pound the ball in afternoon action! 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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04-20-18 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Friday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - There was no question I wanted to come right back with this play after getting burned in last night's game. My ballpark action yesterday included two easy wins in afternoon action and then a tight loss in the night game due to too many wasted opportunities in the Blue Jays / Yankees match-up. They should make up for that here. The Blue Jays have been a surprise early this season and, even with so many missed opportunities in last night's loss, Toronto has averaged scoring 8.4 runs per game their last 5 games. The Yankees, with last night's 4-3 win, are now 5-4 their last 9 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. I like the fact that Toronto's Marco Estrada was dealing with back spasms in his last start. He's been cleared to go in this game but don't be surprised if they flare up again or at least impact him mentally in this game as he is concerned about another flare up. As for the Yanks Sonny Gray, he has a 6.92 ERA and 1.92 WHIP so far this season. He is trying to work on some mechanical adjustments to get back on track. Again, another good time (just like when dealing with a back injury) to fade a pitcher. In other words, look for both these hurlers to get rocked. Also helping our cause is the fact these lineups already faced these starters about 3 weeks ago. Cool in the Bronx tonight but not too bad with temperatures topping out near 50 today. Also, wind blowing out toward right field corner. Last night's under was the 1st for Toronto in their last 5 games. The Yankees are 11-2 to the over this month. 8* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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04-20-18 | Pirates v. Phillies OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies and Pirates have hit very well this season with runners in scoring position and this is why they've fared as well as they have so far on the young season. That type of clutch hitting is also key to cashing overs and I love going contrarian in this match-up. The total has gone from an 8.5 to an 8 as of early Friday and the fact is that this should fly over. I know the Phillies shut out the Pirates yesterday but tonight they have Ben Lively going. Even though his last two starts were against two of the weakest hitting teams in MLB (Reds and Rays near dead last in slugging %), Lively has been hit at a .372 clip in his last two outings. Now he faces a Pirates team that hit him well when they faced him last season. As for Pittsburgh starter Ivan Nova, I know he has been throwing fairly well and has piled up some strikeouts in his last two starts but he also has allowed 4 homers while compiling a 5.21 ERA in his last 3 starts. Plus the Phillies got to him for 7 earned runs on 16 hits in just 13 and 1/3 innings last season. Look for Nova to struggle here as the Phils confidence is sky high thanks to a 10-3 run their last 13 games. The Phillies have averaged scoring 6.2 runs per game during this stretch. Just 3 unders in Pittsburgh's 10 road games this season and the Phillies have had just 7 unders the last 19 times they've been off of a shutout win. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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04-19-18 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 6:35 ET - It will be a chilly evening in the Bronx. Certainly the weather is not necessarily conducive to an over but the wind will be blowing out toward the right field corner and the earlier rains will have moved out of the area. What sets this one up so well is that the Blue Jays already faced CC Sabathia this season and the Yankees also already faced Aaron Sanchez as well. Though Toronto's Sanchez has some decent numbers on the season, he has been issuing too many walks and actually has issued more free passes than "punch-outs" via the strikeout in 2 of his 3 starts this year. Also, he gave up 4 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work versus the Yankees early this season. Additionally, in the last start Sanchez made at Yankee Stadium he allowed a pair of homers. As for Sabathia, he left his last start (nearly two weeks ago) due to hip soreness. He has given up 15 hits (including two homers) in less than 14 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts versus the Blue Jays. In his only home start this season the southpaw allowed 3 homers in just 4 innings of work. The over is a perfect 8-0 (one push) in the Yankees last 9 games. Also, the Blue Jays head to the Bronx with plenty of confidence at the plate after scoring 39 runs in their last 4 games. The over is a perfect 3-0 (one push) in Toronto's last 4 games. The Bronx Bombers are a perfect 7-0 to the over off of a loss this season and also 3-0 in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. That's a combined 21-0 mark to the over! I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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04-19-18 | Orioles v. Tigers OVER 9 | 8-13 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles @ 1:10 ET - The Orioles Alex Cobb got crushed in his first start of the season Saturday at Boston. The Tigers Jordan Zimmerman got crushed in a different way in his most recent start as he took a line drive off of his jaw at Cleveland on the 11th. This will be his first start since then. Not only could that experience effect the mental aspect of his game, Zimmerman also has an ugly 8.18 ERA so far this season. With yesterday's game going over the total, the Orioles are now 6-2 to the over in their last 8 road games and the Tigers are on an overall 3-1 run to the over. When the total is a 9 or 9.5, Detroit is 4-1 to the over this season. Also, the Tigers are on a long-term 26-11 run to the over in Thursday games. It will be chilly at Comerica Park today but the sun will be out and the wind will be blowing out toward center at a good clip. 8* OVER the total in Detroit |
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04-18-18 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:35 ET - I had this same play yesterday and it was unbelievable as the teams had stuff going on all night long but combined to ground into FIVE double plays plus left 21 men on base! Needless to say it was a game filled with wasted opportunities. Now on another great night for hitters at SunTrust Park, I expect these teams to make up for it with a slugfest. The air will be quite dry in Atlanta tonight and the wind will be blowing toward the left-field corner with warm temperatures too. Vincent Velasquez gets the start for the Phillies and he got crushed by the Braves in his first start this season as he gave up 7 runs (4 earned) in less than 3 innings of work. Brandon McCarthy gets the start for Atlanta and he has allowed 6 earned runs on 14 hits in just 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts versus the Phillies. Also, he faced Philadelphia in that same game that Velasquez pitched in and he was able to work out of some jams but he likely won't be so fortunate this time around. The over is 2-1 in each of these hurlers 3 starts this season. Also, yesterday was just the 2nd under the Braves have had in 8 home games this season. Look for tonight's game to resume the normal higher-scoring trend at SunTrust Park. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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04-18-18 | Rockies v. Pirates OVER 8 | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies @ 12:35 ET - After last night pitchers duel I look for this one to play out in much different fashion. Each of these lineups is loaded with plenty of pop and the two pitchers today have been struggling. The Rockies Kyle Freeland couldn't even make it out of the 5th inning in his most recent start as he had thrown 101 pitches so they pulled him. Prior to that outing Freeland allowed a pair of homers in each of his last two starts. Pittsburgh's Chad Kuhl has been getting hit hard and has a 5.74 ERA and 1.79 WHIP on the season. There was only one of his three starts that he didn't get hit hard and that is when faced the downtrodden Reds. The Rockies over is 4-1 this season when they are off of a game where they were held to 2 runs or less. The Pirates over is 3-0 this season in Kuhl's starts. The Pirates over is also 2-0 on Wednesdays, 2-0 in home games where their money line is between +125 and -125, and also 3-0 when they face a left-handed starter. Add it all up and you have a perfect 10-0 situation supporting the over in this one. Couple that with the line drop from a total of 8.5 to 8 as of this morning and this is a great situation. 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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04-17-18 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:35 ET - This total opened up at a 9 and has now dropped to low as an 8 as of game day morning. Temperatures will be mild in Atlanta this evening with the wind blowing toward the left field corner. The wind not necessarily a big help but the temperatures certainly good with rather dry air too which helps the hitters. The biggest key here is that the Phillies Nick Pivetta looks great with his last two starts being dominant but both of those were at home and against very bad teams. In his first start this season he was on the road and faced this very same Braves team and I expect them to get to him even more in the rematch. Last season Pivetta was 4-7 with a 6.65 ERA on the road where he got hit at a .298 clip. Also, in night games last season the Phillies right-hander went 2-6 with a 7.78 ERA and got hit at a .309 clip. As for the Braves Mike Foltneywicz, he has given up 8 runs (7 earned) on 12 hits (including 3 homers) in his last 9 innings versus Philadelphia. None of Foltneywicz last 3 starts versus Phils have stayed under the total. As for Pivetta, only 1 of his 4 starts versus the Braves have resulted in an under. This season the Braves have had just 1 under in 7 home games and, keep in mind, the Phillies faced Foltynewicz already in that same start Pivetta pitched in. These lineups are very familiar with the starter their facing today! 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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04-17-18 | Royals v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 3-11 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #982 Tuesday 8* UNDER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals @ 3:05 ET - The Royals haven't played since Saturday due to weather issues. The Blue Jays haven't played since Friday due to weather issues. This type of layoff is tough for lineups when it comes to maintaining your swing at the plate. The toughness of the situation will be exasperated here because these lineups are facing a pair of crafty left-handers in this one. Jaime Garcia goes for the Blue Jays in Game 1 of the double-header and he already has 12 K's in his first two starts spanning 11 and 2/3 innings. By the way, the Royals are the only team in the majors yet to hit a homer off of a southpaw this season. As for the Blue Jays, they have 4 homers versus southpaws but only 10 teams have 3 or less so that's not saying much. The fact is, with the Jays being off since Friday, their lineup is likely to struggle here. Yes, I know Erik Skoglund had some ugly numbers in his first start but he actually gave up only 6 hits in about 5 innings of work and the action on his pitches was pretty good. The key being that he was pitching after a long layoff due to off-days and postponements keeping him from making his first MLB start of the season. He'll be much better on his 2nd start with more normal rest between outings. 6 of the 7 Royals day games have stayed under the total and the under is a perfect 5-0 in Kansas City's road games this season! The under is a long-term 56-28 in Toronto's games versus left-handed starters. Also, the under is 5-2 this season when off of a win and 5-2 this season in their home games. Look for a low-scoring pitchers duel in Game 1. 8* UNDER the total in Toronto (Game 1 of DH) |
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04-16-18 | Marlins v. Yankees OVER 8 | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Monday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Miami Marlins @ 6:35 ET - The only concern here is that the Yankees haven't played since Friday due to bad weather over the weekend. Alleviating that concern is that Caleb Smith walked 6 batters in just 3 innings in his lone road start this season and I expect him to struggle with the pressure of facing the Bronx Bombers at Yankee Stadium this evening. This is Smith's former team and last season here he walked 5 and gave up 3 homers in just 9 innings of work at Yankee Stadium. Sure he'd love to beat the team that drafted him but the Yankees also know plenty about him and I expect them to get to him here on an evening with the wind blowing out at Yankee Stadium. As for Yanks starter Luis Severino, he got roughed up for 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start. Last season he did allow 15 homers in his 16 home starts and his ERA was about a run and a half higher at home in comparison with on the road. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season in Miami's games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. As for the Yankees, the over is 9-1 in their games this month. They are 5-1 to the over at home this season and 7-1 to the over in their games against teams with a losing record. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in the New York Yankees |
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04-15-18 | Phillies v. Rays OVER 8 | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 1:10 ET - The Phillies Ben Lively was hit quite hard in his starts versus the Reds on Monday and ended up allowing 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work. The Rays Ryan Yarbrough will be making his first ever MLB start. So far this season has pitched 8 innings in relief and he has walked 7 batters in those 8 innings. Also, the southpaw has been tough on lefties but righties have hit him at a .304 clip. Yarbrough will be facing a steady parade of righties with this Philly lineup. Philadelphia is now 7-1 their last 8 games and they've averaged scoring 7 runs per game. The Rays have averaged 4 runs per game in their last 6 games. That said, I look for this one to go over the low posted total. The over is 7-3 in the Rays last 10 games and also 7-3 in TB's day games this season. 8* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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04-14-18 | Rockies v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies @ 1:05 ET - Warm afternoon in DC as the cold air moving in again hasn't yet reached that far south. High temperatures up near 80 degrees and the wind blowing out. Couple that with the fact that the Rockies have some hitters in their lineup whom have had success against Max Scherzer and likewise for some Nats hitters versus Jon Gray and you have the perfect recipe for an over. This is especially true with the low total on this game which is currently a 7.5 as of early Saturday morning. Gray has a 5.73 ERA in his two career starts versus the Nationals. Scherzer has a 1-4 record and a 4.77 ERA in his 8 career starters versus the Rockies. After yesterday's pitchers duel don't be surprised when this one features some early and often fireworks from each of these lineups. 8* OVER the total in Washington |
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04-13-18 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals @ 6:40 ET - The Cardinals rolled 13-4 over the Reds yesterday. Cincinnati is 6-3 to the over this season when off of a loss including 2-0 to the over when they gave up 10 or more runs. The Reds are also a long-term 30-18 to the over as a home dog in a money line range of +125 to +175. The Cards Luke Weaver is off of back to back solid starts to open the season but both of those games were pitched in cold weather which certainly wasn't good for the hitters. Tonight's game at Cincinnati will feature temperatures up near 80 degrees at first pitch and the wind will be blowing toward the left field corner. The Reds sends Tyler Mahle to the mound. The right-hander got rocked for 5 earned runs on 9 hits (including 2 homers) in less than 5 innings of work in his most recent start. St Louis hitters are "feeling it" right now and that continues today while the Reds sticks had notched 11 hits or more in 4 of their 6 games prior to yesterday's beatdown. They should respond today and I am expecting a slugfest tonight at Great American Ballpark. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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04-12-18 | Tigers v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Thursday 10* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Detroit Tigers @ 6:10 ET - These two teams are the bottom two teams in the majors for batting average so far this season. However, much of that has to do with the cold weather they've played in for so many games. This evening in Cleveland the temperature will likely be in the mid-60s at first pitch with the wind blowing out to right field. That's part of the reason you've seen this total climb from a 7.5 to an 8 even though both teams have trended under this season. The other key reason is that the lineups have plenty of familiarity with the pitchers they are facing today. I know that Michael Fullmer has good numbers on the season but he was constantly working out of jams in his most recent start. That is hidden by his low ERA and I expect a breakthrough game for the Indians against him. Fullmer has a 6.04 ERA and 1.82 WHIP versus Cleveland. As for the Indians Trevor Bauer, he has an ugly 7.97 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in his career versus the Tigers. Also, though both of these teams are at the bottom in terms of batting average, their strikeout rate is not bad (each averaging 8 Ks a game) compared to others in the league. They've been putting the ball in play and, finally, on a mild evening at Progressive Field, I look for that to pay off big on Thursday with both lineups enjoying a breakout game. Lets take advantage of the low total in this one. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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04-12-18 | Pirates v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 2:20 ET - There are always a number of key factors in an MLB totals handicap. However, especially at Wrigley Field, the weather is always a big key. In this case, temperatures are expected to warm up to almost 70 degrees today in advance of a cold front. We should have a strong west wind blowing out to right field in advance of the front. Now, the timing is never a sure thing and I am wrapping up this write-up 3.5 hours before first pitch. But it does look like we're going to have good weather here with dry air and good warmth at least for the first "half" of this game. As the game goes on, even as the wind shifts and possibly starts blowing in, note that the Pirates have been one of the hottest hitting teams in the league this season but also have the worst bullpen in all of the majors based on ERA so far this year. The Cubs are averaging 6.3 runs per game their last 6 games and they've scored at least 4 in 5 of those 6 games. The Pirates are averaging 6.5 runs on the season and they have scored at least 4 runs in 9 of those 11 games. Keep in mind, a 4-4 game guarantees us of at least a 5-4 final. This total is only an 8.5 and I see no reason to believe both teams won't get to at least 4 here. Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams allowed 10 hits in 5 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start. Kyle Hendricks allowed 2 homers to the Brewers in his most recent start and the Pirates have hit 8 homers in their 5 road games this season. Look for the over to improve to 8-2 in Pittsburgh's last 10 games. 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs |
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04-11-18 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 3:10 ET - I am coming right back with the same play I lost with yesterday. Yes, neither team looked overly impressive last night at the plate but both southpaw starters did pitch much better than I expected. However, now we have a day game with temperatures into the upper 70s, the wind blowing out to right, and a match-up of right-handed starters whom both should struggle. The Padres Luis Perdomo had good success with his slider in his last start at Houston but he won't get the same break on that pitch in the thin air of Colorado. Also, he has now walked 7 in his 9 innings on the mound so far this season. You don't want to give free passes at Coors Field where the ball carries so well. As for the Rockies German Marquez, has had 10 walks in less than 10 innings on the mound so far this season. Again, this leads to issues and he allowed 7 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work versus the Braves in his most recent start. Marquez has a 5.94 ERA in 3 starts versus San Diego. Perdomo is winless with a 7.40 ERA in his 5 starts versus Colorado. The Rockies had just 2 unders in their 8 divisional games prior to yesterday's poor effort at the plate. Things return to "normal" this afternoon at Coors Field and this one flies over the total. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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04-11-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 1:15 ET - The Cardinals bullpen is getting has a 1.58 WHIP which is one of the worst in the majors. That could be an issue here because Adam Wainwright is coming back from a hamstring issue and he just doesn't appear right. He had issues with both command and velocity in his first start. Wainwright allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings when he hosted the Brewers at Busch Stadium last season and the damage could have been much worse. He allowed 10 hits and walked 3 in those 5 innings of work. Yesterday's game between these teams did go 11 innings but still the fact that each team left 13 men on base certainly shows they could have scored much more than just 8 runs. Now, with Wainwright matched up with Junior Guerra today, look for an easy over. Guerra had a decent ERA in spring training but he did get hit at a .321 clip and, keep in mind, he is coming off of a poor 2017. He went 1-4 with a 5.12 ERA last season. Of particular concern for him here is that he had a 6.68 ERA in road games and 9.00 ERA in day games last season. With the wind blowing out on a mild afternoon in St Louis (temperatures reaching the 70 degree mark) this one should fly over the total. The Brewers have reached double digits in hits in all 5 road games this season and the over is perfect 4-0 in Milwaukee's last 4 games away from home. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 in Cardinals day games this season. 8* OVER the total in St Louis |
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04-10-18 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Tuesday 10* OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:40 ET - Perfect set up here. These teams are getting their sticks going now that they're facing each other at hitter-friendly Coors Field instead of pitcher-friendly Petco Park. In addition to the bats combining for 13 runs yesterday, temperatures are expected to rise to about 70 this afternoon in Denver. It will likely be close to 70 for first pitch in this game. Warmer temperatures and this pitching match-up are going to lead to a lot of runs. These guys, Rockies Tyler Anderson and Padres Joey Lucchesi just squared off in San Diego and that was a low-scoring pitchers duel. Neither starter was charged with a run in the eventual 3-1 Rockies win. Now that they match up in Colorado and with these lineups having just faced these pitchers, the hitters are going to rule the day in this one. This will be Lucchesi's first career road start and it couldn't come at a worse venue. Pitchers are known for struggling in their first ever visits to Coors Field. As for Anderson, he has struggled versus right-handed batters throughout his career. The Padres will load up from that side of the plate tonight with their lineup. The over is 5-2 in San Diego's night games this season and the over has gone 7-4 the past two seasons in Padres road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. Only 2 of the Rockies 8 divisional games this season have stayed under the total. More fireworks again at Coors tonight. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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04-10-18 | Rays v. White Sox OVER 8 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 2:10 ET - The Rays are starting to get their bats going as they've pounded out 25 hits which has led to 12 runs their past 2 games. The White Sox finally got back on track with 4 runs yesterday and they've now scored 4 or more runs in 6 of their 9 games. They should have no trouble with the offerings of Tampa Bay's Blake Snell. The Rays southpaw is off of a tough road outing that followed a strong home outing. The fact is that this is nothing new for Snell. He is known for getting hit hard and struggling on the road while pitching very well at home. That has been the case for him each of the last two seasons and it looks like that trend will continue. As for the White Sox Carson Fulmer, he had a solid start at Toronto (not great but solid). However, I am not sold on him. The young hurler is coming off of a rough spring and this is still a guy whom has a 5.40 ERA in his young career at the MLB level. The way the Rays are swinging the bats now, I expect him to struggle this afternoon. The over is 6-2 in Tampa Bay's day games this season and the over is 5-1 in the Rays road games. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox |
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04-09-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:05 ET - The Cardinals Miles Mikolas hit a homer in his first start after spending the past 3 years in Japan but he also allowed 3 homers and it was against the same Brewers team he's facing today. That doesn't bode well for the rematch as Milwaukee gets a quick "second look" at Mikolas. As for the Brewers starter, Jhoulys Chacin, he also made his most recent start versus the same team he is facing today. Giving the Cardinals a quick "second look" at him is unlikely to help as they hit him hard last week. Also, Chacin got hit hard in his first start this season too. Having allowed 10 runs (7 earned) in 9 innings in his first two starts this season, the Milwaukee righty is likely in trouble here. Couple that with the fact that this total has dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 and great value is being offered here. Yes I know it will be chilly at Busch Stadium this evening but it will not be brutal. Temperatures should be in the mid-40s and neither one of these starters is going to find it easy facing the same hitters that just gave them trouble last week. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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04-08-18 | Braves v. Rockies OVER 11 | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves @ 3:10 ET - Prior to yesterday's low-scoring match-up, the Braves had averaged 8 runs per game in going 5-2 in their first 7 games of the season. Colorado has not hit well early this season but Sean Newcomb should bring out the best in them. The Braves southpaw has allowed 4 homers in his 2 starts versus the Rockies in his career and both outings were recent as they were in August of last season. Newcomb struggled with his command and allowed 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work versus the Nationals in his first start this season. The Rockies also have a southpaw on the bump in this one as Kyle Freeland takes to the mound. Freeland was matched up with Newcomb in both of those starts last August and he gave up 10 hits in 6 innings in the rematch versus the Braves. The way the Braves have been hitting this season and the fact that Freeland allowed 4 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings in his first start this season means we should expect plenty of offense from the Atlanta lineup in this one. Yesterday's under was the 1st this season for the Braves and just the 3rd for the Rockies in their 9 games this season. Look for the early season high-scoring ways to resume here. Temperatures will be a little milder than they were for yesterday's game and the ball carries well in the thin air at Coors Field. 8* OVER the total in Colorado |
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04-07-18 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 1:05 ET - It will be chilly in Boston but the wind will be blowing out to right. I also like the fact that these two lineups just faced these two starting pitchers. The Rays saw Rick Porcello on the 31st and the Red Sox saw Jake Faria on the 1st. Though they each gave up only 1 earned run, Faria did allow 7 baserunners in just 4 innings of work and Porcello did allow 6 hits in just 5.3 innings of work. This series took a day off yesterday and the over is 20-12 when the Red Sox are playing after an off day. Porcello went only 7-11 at home last season with the opposition hitting .306 against him as he compiled a 5.43 ERA at Fenway Park. Faria had a 4.88 ERA in day games last season and allowed 4 homers in his 24 innings of work in afternoon action. 8* OVER the total in Boston |
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04-06-18 | Royals v. Indians OVER 7.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Friday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals @ 4:10 ET - It will be cold at Progressive Field for this one with the wind blowing in too. However, this total has dropped from an 8 (that was already too low in my opinion) to a 7.5 in most spot as of early gameday morning. I understand the general opinion about colder weather leading to unders but, keep in mind, sometimes the pitchers struggle with colder weather too. It effects their grip on the baseball and especially guys who rely more on breaking stuff and getting action on their pitches. With the Royals Danny Duffy and the Indians Carlos Carrasco both coming off of tough starts in their first outing this season, I look for another tough one for each here. Duffy very tough on lefties but the Indians will got with a righty-heavy lineup here and righties hit 111 points higher than lefties last season. The Royals lineup should enjoy success against Carrasco. The right-hander has shown an interesting long-term trend over the past 3 seasons. His ERA at home is nearly 2 full runs higher than on the road. Carrasco has held opponents to .199 on the road but has been hit at a .272 clip in home games. Neither team has hit very well yet this season but two struggling starters and a struggling Royals bullpen (ERA ranks them last in MLB right now) will combine to send this one over the total. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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04-05-18 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies @ 3:40 ET - There is reason to believe that both of these hurlers will struggle on Thursday afternoon. The Rockies Tyler Anderson struggled with command in his first start this season and got absolutely crushed at Arizona. Last season the Colorado southpaw went 3-5 with a 6.11 ERA before the All Star break and that included a very rough April. Also, he is now 3-7 with a 5.72 ERA in road games in his career after another rough road outing versus the Diamondbacks to begin this season. He did lose his only start at Petco Park last season and that was actually during a time when he was pitching better. In other words, he's likely in trouble here. As for San Diego's Joey Lucchesi, he did settle down after a rough first inning in his MLB debut. However, it is still concerning that a guy known as a strikeout specialist throughout his minor league career did record only one strikeout in nearly 6 innings of work. That said, he could find the going rough with the Rockies making plenty of contact. Colorado and San Diego entered their Wednesday late night match-up each with a mark of 4-1 to the over on the season. The Padres had averaged 5.3 runs per game their last 4 games and the Rockies had averaged the same over their past 4 as well. The ball does carry better in day games at Petco Park and we're getting a low total here because it is known as a pitcher-friendly park. I'll take advantage as this pitching match-up is very conducive to a high-scoring game here! 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
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04-04-18 | Orioles v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #916 Wednesday 8* UNDER the total in Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles @ 2:10 ET - Entering Tuesday night's match-up, the under was a perfect 4-0 this season in Baltimore's games. The Orioles just can't hit as, entering Tuesday, they've averaged only 1.5 runs and 4.25 hits per game this season! Now, for the first time this season, Baltimore will be facing a southpaw starter and a good one at that. Dallas Keuchel gets the start and he is known for dominating at home. That said, after Keuchel struggled some in his first start this season at Texas, he should bounce at home in Houston. The Orioles starting pitcher should also enjoy success here as Dylan Bundy had a fantastic first start this season and is now looking to avenge a poor outings versus the Astros last season. Keep in mind, he's still a young hurler so he has had his growing pains but look for him to be successful here in his rematch with Houston. That was Bundy's first ever opening day start last week and he showed how much he has grown and matured as he passed that test with flying colors. As for Keuchel, the under is 5-1 in his 6 career starts versus the Orioles and this should be another one here. The under is 61-37 in O's games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The under is 26-15 in Astros games where they are a home fave of -175 to -250. 8* UNDER the total in Houston |
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04-03-18 | Red Sox v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox @ 6:10 ET - This is definitely a contrarian play because Chris Sale pitched fantastic in the season opener for Boston. However, the Red Sox southpaw did get roughed up in his lone start at Miami (a loss in 2016) and I expect him to have some struggles against at Marlins Park. One of the issues will be that Miami's lineup will be facing a southpaw starter for a 3rd straight game. They faced Brian Johnson in the opener of this series and remember they closed out the series with the Cubs by facing Jose Quintana. In that series with Chicago, the Marlins bounce back for 6 runs in each of the last two games and though this team has pitching issues (among other things) they are showing the ability to put up some runs. About those struggles on the mound, Jose Urena gets the ball here and he was shaky in the season opener versus the Cubs and now faces a potent and confident Red Sox lineup. I know Boston didn't score many runs in the series with the Rays but they did leave 20 men on base in the final two games so they did have some solid scoring opportunities they simply failed to convert on. We're getting a low total on this game because Sale is on the mound for the Red Sox and, keep in mind, Boston's bullpen had a 5.73 ERA heading into last night's game. The Marlins entered yesterday's series opener with a record of 23-15 to the over in interleague action the past two seasons. Look for this one to surprise many and climb over the low total. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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04-02-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 9 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Monday 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:10 ET - The Cardinals are starting Miles Mikolas whom hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 2014. Why? He has spent the last 3 years pitching in Japan. I don't care what his numbers were there. MLB is light years ahead of the competition he faced there. Its now wonder he got hit hard in spring training and I expect him to get pounded here too! The Brewers have started off the season red hot with 3 straight wins. They've reached double digits in hits in all 3 games. They've scored 15 runs the past two games. All of that was at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Now they are at home at Miller Park where there is still plenty of chill in the air (typical early April in Wisconsin) which means the roof will be closed. Look for the Brewers to do some damage to Mikolas early and often. As for the Milwaukee starter, Zach Davies, he'd be better off NOT starting the home opener. He had a 5.82 ERA at home last season. Now he faces a Cardinals team that will have some extra confidence at the plate today after nothing that all important first win yesterday in New York as they got to the Mets for 5 runs. The over is 2-1 in St Louis' 3 games this season and also 2-0 in the Brewers last 2 games. Look for that streak to reach 3 in a row here as BOTH of these starters are likely to get lit up early and often. 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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04-01-18 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros @ 3:05 ET - Gerrit Cole makes his debut for the Astros and in a very hitter friendly ballpark. That doesn't bode well for a guy that gave up nearly 3 times as many homers as he had in any other season last year. Though the Rangers did not hit well yesterday, remember that they did get to Dallas Keuchel on Friday and if Cole leaves some up in the zone (as I suspect he will) don't be surprised if Texas puts up some crooked numbers on the scoreboard in this one. Of course they'll need all the runs they can get because they're handing the ball to Mike Minor whom hasn't started at the MLB level since 2014! That spells trouble against an Astros lineup that was certainly "feeling it" yesterday as they piled up 9 runs. Houston now gets the luxury of facing a left-handed starter in back to back games. That always tends to help the lineup, especially when off of a big day. Even if Minor enjoys some early success here, I expect him to quickly fade and the Astros will continue pounding on the Rangers bullpen. Nice weather here in Arlington with an interesting dynamic that could help us as well (not that we necessarily need it) but a wind shift is on the way that could happen during the game depending on the timing of a weather front. Either way, the ball carries well here at this park and look for another high-scoring match-up just like yesterday but this time with a little more balanced scoring between the teams as Cole gives up some big extra base hits including dingers. The odds makers tried to hang a 10 on this game and the markets quickly got it down to a 9.5 and I'll gladly take advantage! 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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04-01-18 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Sunday MLB 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 1:05 ET - Each of the first three games in this series have all stayed under the total. It is very rare for a full 4-game set to record 4 straight unders and I don't expect that to happen here. Of course you can't just blindly play an over in a situation like this and I am certainly not doing that. What I like about this situation is that the Yankees certainly have plenty of pop in their lineup and Marcus Stroman is not 100% yet and will likely be on a pitch count for the Blue Jays here as he comes back from his shoulder injury. He only made two starts in spring training. Also, the Yankees saw plenty of him last season and are very familiar with him. What I also like about this match-up is the Blue Jays scored 5 runs yesterday and finally got their sticks going a bit. They match up well with Sonny Gray as they've seen plenty of him and, though he's solid, he certainly is not overly dominant and was not all that impressive after coming to the Yankees last season. Also, at this point in the series there aren't a lot of secrets in the bullpen. All things considered, no reason each team can't get to 4 here and with this total opening at 8.5 that puts in the winners circle. 8* OVER the total in Toronto |
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03-31-18 | Angels v. A's OVER 9 | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 42 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:05 ET - Matt Shoemaker gave up a lot of bombs in spring training. He also was homer-prone in his day starts last season. The prior season, 2016, the right-hander was also roughed up in day games. As for Daniel Mengden, he got hit hard in spring training this year and both of these pitchers are trying to come back from some injury troubles and neither has looked overly sharp. Mengden also got absolutely clobbered in his lone career start versus the Angels. Shoemaker has a 1.60 WHIP in his last two starts versus the A's and has given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts versus the Athletics including 2 in his last visit to Oakland. I prefer afternoon games when looking at overs in West Coast match-ups. No matter the outcome of the Friday night game, keep in mind, the Thursday afternoon game flew over the total. Based on this pitching match-up and the fact both these teams showed some pop (10 extra base hits including 5 homers) Thursday afternoon, I look for some more daytime slugfest action in this one. The over went 9-4-1 in Shoemaker's starts last season and Mengden's struggles (hit quite hard in spring) continue here against a team that hammered him when they faced him before. 8* OVER the total in Oakland |
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03-30-18 | Nationals v. Reds OVER 8.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -116 | 20 h 52 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Friday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals @ 4:10 ET - Following Thursday's rain out, skies are expected to clear out for this one and though the weather certainly won't be great it truly won't be too bad for a late March afternoon in Cincinnati. Of course the ball is known for carrying well here and I expect Homer Bailey to again live up to his name of serving up homers. The past 3 seasons he is a combined 8-13 with a 6.39 ERA. On top of that the Reds have major bullpen issues right now. With the Nationals on the road we're guaranteed of getting 9 innings of their powerful bats and I expect them to do plenty of damage here. As for the Reds, they do have some pop in their lineup and Max Scherzer has allowed 19 homers in the 18 daytime starts he has made spanning the last two seasons. The Nats right-hander did allow at least 2 runs in 7 of his first 9 starts last season and these types of games (Reds as big home dog) tend to get crazy at Great American Ballpack. The over is 10-1-1 the 12 times that Cincy has been a home underdog of +175 or more the last 2 seasons. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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03-29-18 | Brewers v. Padres OVER 8 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Thursday 8* OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 4:10 ET - The Padres Clayton Richard allowed more hits and had more losses than any other pitcher in the National League last year. The San Diego southpaw got rocked in his only start versus the Brewers last season and it was at home. As for Milwaukee's Chase Anderson, I know he is coming off of a strong season but he did get a little roughed up at times in spring training. Also, he has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts at San Diego. One of those was last season. Additionally, when Anderson faced the Padres in Milwaukee last year, he did allow 2 homers there and he has allowed 3 homers in his last 2 starts at San Diego. Mild afternoon in southern California is a positive for the hitters. Wind blowing in from left but not a strong wind. I look for the over to improve to 8-1 in Anderson's 9 career starts versus the Padres. Also, the over is 48-32 in Brewers games versus left-handed starters the past two seasons and the over is 46-34 in San Diego's games with a money line range of +125 to -125 the past two seasons. 8* OVER the total in San Diego |
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11-01-17 | Astros v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
FOX Smash Pass - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 8* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros @ 8:15 ET - The Dodgers won the first game of the World Series 3-1 and then won last night's game six by an identical score of 3-1. In between, every single game totaled at least 8 runs and there was plenty of craziness including extra inning affairs! I expect that craziness to resume one last time tonight. I know this game is at Dodger Stadium which is a very pitcher-friendly venue but we've seen an offensive explosion once already in this series and I feel another one looms tonight. Both teams have seen their bullpens slip up big a few times in this series and I feel both starters could struggle tonight. Lance McCullers has had great success in his last two starts by throwing a curveball about 70% of the time. Of course once hitters know what is coming you know what happens then...expect some big adjustments from the Dodgers hitters in this one. As for the Astros, they should again give Yu Darvish trouble. They hammered him earlier in this series and, as a result, will have plenty of confidence in the batters box tonight. Both of these lineups are loaded with solid hitters and they have not been held in check in back to back games in this series yet. So, after a pitchers duel last night, look for the fireworks to resume in Game 7. The over is 50-31 in Astros road games in 2017. Prior to last night's under, the Dodgers were 6-2-1 to the over in their last 9 home games. Look for that trend to resume here. 8* OVER the total in Game 7 of the World Series |
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10-29-17 | Dodgers v. Astros OVER 7 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 105 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:15 - As a handicapper or bettor if you always think you're the smartest guy in the room you're setting yourself up for trouble. The point I am making is there are a lot of very smart people with very sharp minds connected to this industry. The reason I am mentioning that as it pertains to Game 5 of the World Series is because I find it surprising this total has actually held at a 7 today. It is now after Noon ET as I prepare this write-up and we're still staring at 7 across the board on this one. Keep in mind that, were it not for extra innings in Game 2, none of the first 4 games of this series would have gone over the total. Now you have a rematch of Game 1 pitting southpaw ace versus southpaw ace (a game with very few hits and that ended 3-1) and yet this total has been held at a 7. Yes, I know this one is in an AL park and the DH certainly is a factor but, still, the way these guys have pitched makes it surprising to see this total at a 7. It tells me that some very sharp people are expecting this one gets to at least 7. Keep mind we have 3 ways to win this. The lineups are getting a 2nd look at these starting pitchers so perhaps 1) Kershaw gets hit hard or 2) Keuchel gets hit hard or 3) Either bullpen caves - the Astros bullpen is a weakness and the Dodgers bullpen was proven not invincible in Game 2. I like the OVER here for a contrarian play. Los Angeles is 5-2 to the over in road games with a posted total of 7 runs this season. The Astros are 19-6 to the over in Sunday games this season. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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10-27-17 | Dodgers v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach Friday MLB 10* OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - Both teams have plenty of confidence at the plate after the slugfest that saw a record 8 homers hit in Game 2 of this series Wednesday. Their confidence here is also boosted by the fact that the Dodgers hitters who have experience against Lance McCullers have hit a combined .500 against him in their meetings with him the past 5 seasons. Also, the Astros are very familiar with Yu Darvish because of his time spent with the Rangers - Texas a division rival of Houston. The Astros did lose to Darvish in his most recent visit to Houston. However, in his two prior starts versus the Astros (both within the past 14 months) Darvish was rocked for 8 earned runs on 14 hits in just 9 innings of work! Look for more of the same here with the Astros very happy that the roof will be closed for Game 3 (temps in the 50s outside) and this creates a raucous atmosphere that tends to bring out the best in this Astros lineup. The over is 15-8 this season when Houston is playing after a day off. Both lineups off powerful performances at the plate in Game 2 and now get the added benefit of a DH since the series has shifted to an AL park for games 3 through 5. Additional value too in this one thanks to the drop from an 8.5 to an 8 on this total. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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10-25-17 | Astros v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 110 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Total of the Year - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros @ 8:05 ET - The Astros Justin Verlander is 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA in the 3 World Series starts he has made in his career. He has averaged just 5 innings per start in those 3 appearances. Should Verlander have another short outing here, that exposes what is perhaps the Astros biggest weakness (bullpen) in comparing how these two teams match up. Even though the Dodgers do have a solid bullpen, starter Rich Hill is likely to get roughed up here. The Dodgers southpaw has allowed 4 homers and 12 walks plus has hit 3 batters in the 6 post-season starts he has made in his career. With this being his first-ever World Series start it would not surprise to see him a little shaky in this one. It will be another "hot one" in LA with high temperatures again around the century mark today. That means the homers should again be flying but the reason yesterday's game did not get over the total is the fact that there was little else in the way of offense other than 3 homers that accounted for all 4 runs. That changes with these two hurlers today. These are two very potent lineups and the Astros now facing a southpaw for a 2nd straight game and Hill is definitely a big step down from Kershaw. The Astros have been held to 1 run or less twice this month. Each time their next game went over the total. This season, Houston is 27-20 to the over against southpaw starters and 49-30 to the over in road games. The over is 3-1 in Verlander's last 4 starts and 5-3 in Hill's last 8 starts. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-18-17 | Astros v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | 0-5 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Houston Astros @ 5 ET - The weather is changing again in the Northeast. Temperatures will be in the low 70s for this one and the wind (though light) will be blowing out toward left field. I am well aware of the fact that Dallas Keuchel and Masahiro Tanaka both pitched well in their starts earlier in this series. However, when a team gets a quick second look at a starter that can be very beneficial for the hitters. They just faced these hurlers on Friday. Note that Tanaka's two starts against the Astros, prior to Friday, saw him allow 12 earned runs in less than 7 innings of work! Also, although this isn't a true "day game" it is an early start and that is noteworthy because Tanaka went 3-6 with a 6.99 ERA in day game starts this season. This is still not a normal evening start (which would be 8 ET) and I would not be surprised to see Tanaka struggle here. As for Keuchel, he is known for being stronger at home than on the road. This season, away from home, opponents hit 58 points higher against Keuchel than they did in Houston. Also, the Astros southpaw compiled an ERA that was 1.27 runs higher on the road compared to at home. The Yankees have a lot of confidence after rallying back in this series and, though they haven't been getting a lot of hits, they have been getting big hits! The Yanks have plenty of power. I know the Astros bats have been quiet in this series but getting a second shot at Tanaka should help. He is 0-4 with a 7.62 ERA in his 6 career starts gainst Houston. 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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10-15-17 | Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:35 ET - With high temperatures reaching into the 90s today and a start time of 4:35 local time, this game will have the feel of a mid-summer day game! That is likely to be bad news for Jon Lester of the Cubs as the southpaw had a 5.42 ERA in day games this season and was hit at a .281 clip. As for Rich Hill of the Dodgers, his ERA was nearly a run and a half higher (and BAA nearly 45 points higher) in day games than night games this season. Lester pitched at Dodger Stadium in May this season and gave up 6 earned runs in just 3 and 1/3 innings. The over is 9-1-1 in Lester's last 11 starts. The over is 4-1 in Hill's last 5 home starts. I am certainly cognizant of the fact that there have been a lot of unders in recent post-season games after a hot start for the hitters early on. However, this pitching match-up coupled with the weather make this one a prime situation for the bats to come back to life in a HUGE way Sunday. 10* OVER the total in LA Dodgers |
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10-14-17 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Saturday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs New York Yankees @ 4:05 ET - The Yankees Luis Severino faced the Astros twice this season and he got crushed in both games and compiled a 10.57 ERA in the two outings. He enters this start having allowed 5 homers in his last 13 and 1/3 innings. The Astros counter with Justin Verlander who has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts versus the Yankees. Though he was successful in his start versus Boston in this post-season, he did only strike out 3 in that outing. That is significant because if the powerful Yankees sticks are making contact they can be ultra dangerous. Dealing with an ultra low total here means I have no hesitation in stepping in and taking advantage. These are two of the most potent lineups in baseball and, just because they were held "in check" in yesterday's pitchers' duel it does not mean they won't come right back to life here. Only 19 of the Astros 51 day games this season have stayed under the total. The over is 12-2 in Severino's last 14 starts. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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10-13-17 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
ALCS Game 1 Crusher - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs New York Yankees @ 8:05 ET - Even though Masahiro Tanaka is coming off of a great start in the Yankees series with the Indians, he was at home for that one. That is noteworthy because Tanaka was an entirely different pitcher away from Yankee Stadium this season. The Yankees right-hander went 4-7 with a 6.48 ERA in his 15 road starts and the over went 11-4 in those games! The Astros should pound him here and note that he is 0-3 with an 8.86 ERA in his 5 starts versus Houston in his career. However, the reason the play here is the over rather than the Astros is two-fold. First off, Houston's price is quite big here and, as long time followers know, I don't like to lay big juice! Secondly, the Yankees have a ton of momentum considering they are coming off of a huge comeback against the Indians. That said, New York will have a lot of confidence at the plate. Keep in mind, the Yanks have now scored 21 runs in their last 4 games and they've scored 7 runs or more in 3 of their last 6 games. Though Dallas Keuchel is certainly a top pitcher, the Astros southpaw will be making just his 2nd start in a span of nearly 2 and 1/2 weeks! Too much rest can lead to "rust" for a pitcher and the Yankees have a ton of pop in their lineup! Also, the over is 6-2 in Keuchel's last 8 starts. The over is a perfect 5-0 in Tanaka's last 5 road starts! Factoring in all of the above with the fact that this line has dropped from an 8.5 to an 8, we have great line value here! 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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10-11-17 | Nationals v. Cubs OVER 7 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 27 m | Show |
NOTE: Still going with this 10* Top Play. Stephen Strasburg has been ill but he over-ruled manager Dusty Baker and is now making the start. We shouldn't be surprised at this as Baker made multiple managerial errors in the loss to the Cubs Monday that NEVER should have happened. In summary, this is STILL a 10* Top Play for me as Strasburg is not 100% and I believe we'll see that firsthand as this game goes on. Baker got over-ruled and ends up making another poor choice here in my opinion. So Strasburg gets hit hard and, as noted below, Arrieta struggles again. |
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10-09-17 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Monday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros @ 1:05 ET - Boston got their sticks going in their 10-3 win over the Astros yesterday. Coincidentally, the Red Sox also scored 10 runs and got a win the last time Rick Porcello started. The fact that this was nearly two weeks ago means Porcello may be a little "off" in this start and, keep in mind, he allowed 7 earned runs in 6 innings in his lone start versus the Astros this season. Also, Porcello gave up 9 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work in his last two starts of the regular season. The Astros Charlie Morton finished up the regular season strong and had a good start versus the Red Sox in his final start of the campaign. However, his overall road ERA this season was a 4.17 ERA and I expect Boston's success at the plate yesterday to carry right into today. It will be another hitter-friendly afternoon with warm temperatures and winds blowing out to left field. We just need to see the rain stay away from Fenway Park and hopefully that will be the case although any showers are expected to be rather light. The over is 3-0 in this series and the over is now 47-27 in Houston's road games this season. Look for another slugfest here. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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