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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-09-18 | Nationals v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Monday 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - The Nationals are off of another wild game yesterday as they lost 10-2 to the Marlins. That means that in 4 of the Nats last 6 games they've either allowed double digits in runs or they've scored double digits in runs! In fact, in one of those games both they AND their opponent reached double digits. Suffice to say this hasn't been easy on their bullpen and that could be an issue here. That's because Washington starter Jefry Rodriguez has only lasted a total of 9 innings in his first two starts! He has a 9.00 ERA in those two outings and those were both at home as this will be his first road start! Rodriguez will be facing a Pirates lineup that got a boost in confidence yesterday thanks to a 4-1 win over the NL East leading Phillies. The issue for Pittsburgh today won't be their lineup it will be their own starting pitcher. They hand the ball to Ivan Nova for this one and he has an 8.18 ERA in his last two starts and has allowed 6 homers in the 11 innings spanning those two outings! Also, facing Washington is unlikely to help Nova as he has a 7.52 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Nationals. Also, in Nova's lone start versus the Nats this season he did allow a pair of homers. The over is 2-0 in the two starts Rodriguez has made this season. Pittsburgh, even with yesterday's low-scoring win, are 5-2 to the over in their July games. The Pirates 52 night games this season have seen only 19 stay under the total! More of the same here as Washington's recent penchant for wild games continues. 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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07-08-18 | Dodgers v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - The over is 10-4-1 in the last 15 starts that the Dodgers Alex Wood has made. Though he has pitched quite well of late he has allowed 8 earned runs in his last 8 innings on the road which spanned two starts. Of course that did include a trip to Coors Field but also note that Wood has given up 23 hits in the 20 innings spanning his last 4 road starts. The point is that, overall, the Dodgers lefty has been quite hittable on the road. As for the Angels Andrew Heaney, he is off of a strong start at Seattle. However, in the left-hander's 4 prior starts he did compile a 6.33 ERA. Heaney had allowed 5 earned runs or more in 3 of his prior 6 starts. In his most recent start against the Dodgers, the Angels lefty was reached for 5 earned runs in 5 innings. Entering Saturday's game, the Dodgers were 4-1 in their last 5 games thanks to production on offense averaging 7.8 runs per game. That production keyed a 4-1 run to the over for the Dodgers. Regardless of Saturday's final outcome, note that the Dodgers are 3-1 to the over in their last 4 games against a left-handed starter. Additionally, the Angels entered Saturday's afternoon game having trended under of late but the Halos slugging percentage in night games this season does rank them in the upper half of the majors. The Dodgers slugging percentage in night games ranks them 2nd in the National League. This is a contrarian play but it is not without good reason and I expect plenty will be surprised at the struggles of both Wood and Heaney in this one. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels |
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07-08-18 | Rangers v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -111 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers @ 1:10 ET - Regular followers know I had the over (also 9 runs) in this match-up yesterday. Unbelievably the game ended up only being able to manage a push even though 7 runs were scored in the 1st inning. What made this even more frustrating is that there were numerous opportunities all game long! One look at some final statistics tells you just how numerous those opportunities were! The teams combined to leave 19 men on base and, in terms of clutch hitting, note that the teams combined to go a miserable 3 for 26 with runners in scoring position. That my friends is how a game that should have easily gone over the total somehow manages not to. It barely even got the push as the run that was needed finally came in the top of the 9th inning. I am thankful we didn't get "totally" burned which we would have if we didn't get that push but the fact remains yesterday's game should have finished with about 15 runs! Funny things tend to happen after a game like that and I fully expect the lineups to make up for yesterday's shortcomings in Sunday's early action. The Rangers Austin Bibens-Dirkx has had decent starts versus the light-hitting Padres and Royals recently but his other 3 starts this season have seen him allow 13 earned runs on 26 hits in 17 innings of work! Tigers starter Michael Fulmer has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last two starts versus Texas and he averaged just 5 and 1/3 innings in those 2 starts. Also, Detroit is 0-3 in his last 3 starts and he has a mediocre 4.58 ERA in those outings. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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07-07-18 | Rangers v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers @ 4:10 ET - The Rangers Cole Hamels is struggling and has allowed 11 earned runs in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts. Facing the Tigers is unlikely to help Hamels as he has a low ERA versus Detroit but it is an absolute fluke. The Texas southpaw was very fortunate in recent outings versus the Tigers are he allowed only 6 earned runs in 13 innings even though he gave up 22 hits plus walked 8 in those 13 frames! Talk about incredible luck, it won't happen again here. Another concern for Hamels is that the Tigers have crushed left-handed pitching this season. Their .274 batting average versus southpaws is #1 in the majors. Detroit will have Mike Fiers on the mound and I am well aware of the fact that his recent numbers look great. Note however that Fiers is facing a Rangers lineup that is very familiar with him. That is because the Tigers right-hander recent's seasons were as a member of the Astros - a division rival of Texas. In his last 3 starts versus the Rangers, Fiers has allowed 16 earned runs in just 13 and 1/3 innings. You can see why I am expecting both of these guys to get pounded Saturday. Look for the over to improve to 3-0 in Hamels last 3 starts. Also, the over is 4-1-1 in Fiers 6 career starts versus Texas. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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07-07-18 | Orioles v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles @ 2:10 ET - I know that Kevin Gausman has great numbers in his last 3 starts but two of those outings were at home and the only one that was on the road was facing a Nationals lineup that was slumping badly. That definitely holds key significance here because, in his 4 prior road starts, Gausman had given up 16 earned runs on 32 hits in 20 and 1/3 innings. In other words, he is likely to get hit hard by the Twins here! The over is 4-2 in Gausman's 6 career starts versus Minnesota and he has a 7.59 ERA in those outings. The Twins counter with Kyle Gibson here. Though his numbers are good on the season, Gibson has a 5.00 ERA and an ugly 1.78 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, he has gone winless in his 8 home starts this season as he has a 4.54 ERA and 1.51 WHIP on his home mound. He had a great start at Baltimore earlier this season but in his prior two starts versus the Orioles he allowed 13 earned runs in just 9 innings of work! With yesterday's 6-2 win, the Twins have scored 5 or more runs in 6 of their last 8 games. I know the Orioles have not been hitting well but Gibson will bring out the best in them. The over is a long-term 36-24 in Twins home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs and, though it will surprise a lot of people, a slug-fest erupts at Target Field Saturday. 8* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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07-06-18 | Red Sox v. Royals OVER 8 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #973 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:15 ET - While it may seem "scary" to play an over involving red hot Red Sox left-hander Chris Sale, follow along here. If you want to be involved this match-up, the total is arguably the "safest" way. The Red Sox are a -300 on the money line and also in the 175 range as a favorite on the run line. As you can see, Boston is projected to blow out Kansas City here but, as we've all seen before, "shockers" do happen and that is always why it is uncomfortable laying big prices. That said, I love the value with the over here. I know know Sale has been hot and the Royals have been cold. However, note that the lefty has allowed 3 earned runs in each of his last two starts at Kauffman Stadium and he did allow 2 homers in his most recent trip there. As for the Boston sticks here they should do plenty of damage. They'll be facing the Royals Jason Hammel and he has gone 0-3 with a 9.76 ERA and 2.36 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The likelihood of him turning things around against one of the best hitting teams in baseball is not good at all. This is especially true when one considers that Hammel got pummeled for 8 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work in his start at Boston earlier this season. The Red Sox had not trouble with his offerings then and they are unlikely to have any trouble here either. In home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs Kansas City is 5-2 to the over this season. Also, from 2016 to the present, the Royals are 7-1 to the over when they are a home dog of +175 or more! Both teams were off yesterday and Boston is 26-16 to the over when playing after an off day. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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07-06-18 | Phillies v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 17-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:05 ET - The Pirates are 4-0 to the over in their last 4 games. The Phillies are 4-0 to the over in Nick Pivetta's last 4 starts. Pivetta had a great start versus the Cardinals during this stretch but, overall, his June was horrible with a 7.71 ERA in his 6 starts. He has shown to be a streaky pitcher and right now he is most certainly in one of his downward cycles. The Pirates Trevor Williams also comes into this start struggling. He has a 5.91 ERA in his last two starts and allowed 3 homers in the less than 11 innings spanning those two outings. Another concern for him here is that he has shown throughout his career that he struggles in night games compared to day games. Additionally, Williams also struggles much more against left-handed batters than righties. The Phillies active roster, in terms of position players, has 3 left-handed batters plus 4 switch-hitters. You can bet that Williams is going to face some significant left-handed lumber in this one and that will be a problem. This total has already dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 and, either way, there is great value with this one based on the low total and the expectation that both of these hurlers are going to hit some rough patches in this one. By the way, wind expected to be blowing out to right field in this one in Pittsburgh! The Pirates are 15-9 to the over in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Philadelphia is 8-4 to the over in Friday games this season. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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07-05-18 | White Sox v. Astros OVER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - This total has dropped from an 8 down to a 7 as of early on game day but the markets are fooled on this one simply because Justin Verlander is on the mound. Yes he has a fantastic pitcher but his current form suggests he could definitely give up quite a few runs against a White Sox team that has been swinging the bats better the past few weeks. Another key to the over here is that the Astros are back home and they have been swinging the bats very well at Minute Maid Park plus they should have no trouble with the mediocre offerings of Carlos Rodon. The Chicago southpaw is 1-3 with a 4.55 ERA in his five starts since he returned from the 60-day disabled list about four weeks ago. The over is 3-0 in Rodon's last 3 starts overall. Also, on the season he is 0-3 on the road and he has been rocked for 9 earned runs in just 11 and 2/3 innings in his last two starts away from home. As for Verlander, has strong as he has been all season, the fact is that he has labored a bit recently as he has allowed 9 earned runs in 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts. He has allowed 3 homers in his last two home starts and Rodon has allowed 3 homers in his last two starts overall. The Astros are averaging scoring 6.4 runs per game in their last 5 home games and the White Sox are averaging scoring 6.1 runs per game in their last dozen games overall. You can see why I am happy to take advantage of the very low total posted on this game. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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07-05-18 | Rangers v. Tigers OVER 9 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - The Rangers are 3-0 to the over in Yovani Gallardo's 3 starts this season and he has compiled a 6.12 ERA in those 3 outings. The Tigers are 2-1 to the over in Matt Boyd's last 3 starts as the southpaw has struggled. Boyd has a 9.69 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP in his last 3 outings. The lefty most recently faced Texas last season and he got hammered for 12 hits in just 5 and 1/3 innings. Gallardo allowed 17 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings in his last 2 starts versus Detroit. It is expected to be a hitter-friendly night at Comerica Park as the wind is likely to be blowing at a pretty good clip out toward left-center field. Rangers games have stayed under the total just 10 times in their 28 games versus southpaw starters this season. Texas has reached the double digit mark in hits in 8 of their last 11 games. The Tigers have averaged 9.5 hits per game in their last 4 games and those were all on the road. They should hit even better at home where they have reached double digits in hits in 2 of their last 3 games versus a right-handed starter. This total dropped from a 10 to a 9 as of early on game day but the markets are fooled on this game simply because the Tigers have been trending under of late. This one is set up to be a slugfest based on the pitching match-up. 8* OVER the total in Detroit |
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07-04-18 | White Sox v. Reds OVER 10 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass (Primetime) - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - Yesterday's game flew over the total and the fact that the game ended up going 12 innings certainly didn't do any favors for the bullpens either. That said, look for another slugfest on Sunday evening because neither one of these starters is likely to enjoy much success either. Dylan Covey gets the start for the White Sox in this one and he has allowed 26 hits in his last 18 and 1/3 innings. He has a 12.71 ERA and 2.47 WHIP in his last 3 starts and now faces a red hot Reds lineup. Cincinnati simply continues to pound the ball and the over is now 8-2-2 in their last dozen games. The Reds have averaged scoring 6.7 runs per game their last 16 games. As for the White Sox, they've averaged 6.3 runs per game their last 11 games. Chicago has also averaged 11 hits per game during this 11-game stretch. The over is 11-3 in the White Sox last 14 games and they should continue pounding the ball as they face Sal Romano Wednesday evening. The Reds right-hander has given up 15 hits in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts. Though Romano only allowed 2 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start he did have to work out of numerous jams. Also, this start was proceeded by a stretch where he allowed 4 earned runs or more in 6 of his 8 prior starts. In fact, even including his most recent start (2 ER in 5 IP), Romano has a 6.33 ERA in his last 5 home starts. The slugfest style of games at Great American Ball Park continue. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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07-04-18 | Braves v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves @ 1:05 ET - Yesterday's 8-5 Yankees win flew over the total and I expect more of the same early Wednesday. Many won't expect that because the pitching match-up has a couple of starters whom have had some success at times. However, that is why this is a contrarian play because the fact is most were surprised to see a total of 9.5 on a game involving the Braves Julio Teheran and the Yankees CC Sabathia. The fact is that the Braves are now 8-3-1 to the over in their last dozen games overall. Also, Atlanta is also 12-3 to the over in their last 15 road games! The Braves .266 batting average and .453 slugging percentage in road games BOTH rank them #1 in the National League! In other words, Atlanta is a very strong hitting team away from home! As for the Yankees, their .477 slugging percentage in home games ranks them 3rd out of all 30 MLB teams. Teheran is off of a good start at St Louis but he allowed 26 earned runs in his 7 prior starts despite averaging less than 6 innings per start. As for Sabathia, his ERA at home this season has been better than on the road but I believe this is a bit of a fluke and will start to reverse. Why? Because he has a higher opponents batting average at home than on the road this season and also the past 4 years (2014 to 2017) his combined ERA at home was 4.89 ERA. Of course that is an unimpressive mark and more than a full run higher than his road ERA over the same period! Braves will hit him hard and the Yankees bats continue their surge as they're averaging 6 runs per game their last 8 at home. 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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07-04-18 | Red Sox v. Nationals OVER 9 | 3-0 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox @ 11:05 AM ET - Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has been rocked for 10 runs (9 earned) on 14 hits in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts. Washington's Erick Fedde has a 6.00 ERA in his 5 starts this season and a 1.84 WHIP in his last two starts. 7 of the last 10 starts Rodriguez has made have stayed under the total and 4 of the 5 starts Fedde has made this season have stayed under the total. However, that is simply serving to keep this total lower than it should be as neither one of these hurlers is in good current form. Each team had a dozen hits in yesterday's game and the teams combined for 15 runs. Plenty of confidence at the plate for both of these teams right now and the result should be a back and forth slugfest early Wednesday. 8* OVER the total in Washington |
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07-03-18 | White Sox v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Top Play Special - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - Tough loss for me with this play yesterday and, as a result, I am not hesitating to come right back with it. The Reds and White Sox combined for 9 extra base hits in yesterday's game but Cincinnati went just 1 for 8 at the plate with runners in scoring position. Also, the teams combined to leave 19 men on base in the game and so the over (released at 9.5) was a tough loss as it finished with 8 runs. Chicago scored just 3 runs despite 11 hits yesterday. Look for the teams to make up for it today as the pitching match-up is conducive to an over. The White Sox are going with Lucas Giolito and he has a 6.59 ERA on the season and will be facing a Cincinnati team that has averaged scoring 6.6 runs per game in their last 15 games. Also, the under that resulted yesterday was just the 2nd under that the Reds have had in their last 11 games! As for the White Sox, prior to yesterday's under, the over was 10-2 their last 12 games. Even with yesterday's loss Chicago has averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game their last 10 games. They'll be going up against Cincinnati's Anthony DeSclafani. The Reds right-hander has given up 5 homers in his last 3 starts and all 3 outings resulted in an over. He has a 4.77 ERA at home and continues to display a penchant for giving up big hits. The White Sox have reached double digits in hits in 8 of their last 10 games and should get to him early and often. The Reds have averaged 10 hits per game their last 15 games! 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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07-03-18 | Red Sox v. Nationals OVER 9 | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash (Eve) - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox @ 6:05 ET - Tough loss for me with this play yesterday and, as a result, I am not hesitating to come right back with it. The Nationals and Red Sox combined to hit 4 homers in yesterday's game but also combined to go just 1 for 7 at the plate with runners in scoring position. Also, Washington left 10 men on base in the game and so the over (released at 7.5) was a tough loss as it finished with 7 runs. Look for the teams to make up for it today as the pitching match-up is conducive to an over. The Red Sox start Brian Johnson and he got hit at a .283 clip last season in his 5 starts. The southpaw this season has pitched in 23 games (2 starts) and has been hit at a .280 clip. The Nationals have been looking better at the plate recently but simply missed some opportunities last night. They'll cash in against Johnson. As for Nats starter Tanner Roark, this is likely to get ugly. Boston has one of the most dangerous lineups in the majors and the Washington right-hander enters this start off of what went in the books as a "quality start" at Philadelphia but he did allow 7 hits plus walked 3 in that 6-inning outing. Also, prior to this start, Roark had given up 10 earned runs in just 8 and 1/3 innings spanning his two prior starts. I expect him to struggle against a very dangerous Red Sox lineup. Look for the over to improve to 4-2 in Roark's last 6 starts including 3-0 in his last 3 at home. 8* OVER the total in Washington |
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07-03-18 | Twins v. Brewers OVER 9 | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins @ 4:10 ET - These teams pounded out 25 hits in yesterday's game and it went over the total by the middle innings. The over is now a perfect 4-0 in Minnesota's last 4 games. Milwaukee has not had a single under in any of their last 6 games as they've had one push and the other games went a perfect 5-0 to the over. The Twins have now recorded double digits in hits in 4 straight games but their slumping pitching staff (starters and relievers) has combined to allow double digits in hits in 10 of their last 11 games. Look for the hit parade to continue Tuesday afternoon as Minnesota's Jake Odorizzi is off of a quality start against the White Sox but previously allowed 36 hits in the less than 26 innings spanning his 6 prior starts! That long-term trend tells the full story on Odorizzi and the Twins this season are now 11-4 to the over in interleague games and 10-3 to the over in games where they are a road dog in a money line range of +125 to +175. The Brewers will have Junior Guerra toeing the rubber in this one. He has allowed a pair of homers in each of 2 of his last 3 starts. The way the Twins have been putting good wood on the ball of late, we should see a few more long balls hit off of Guerra in this one as well. 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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07-03-18 | Tigers v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash (Day) - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers @ 2:20 ET - The weather pattern has changed in Chicago since the recently completed weekend series that saw the visiting Twins and host Cubs put up a ton of runs. However, as a result, we're getting a very low total to work with here and these are two very confident lineups right now. Yes, even the Tigers are confident because they are off of rare back to back wins. Hanging tough for the extra-innings win at Toronto yesterday was a big win for this Detroit team and it followed a huge 9-1 win the day before that saw the Tigers erupt for 13 hits. They'll take advantage of facing Kyle Hendricks off of a rough start where he allowed 6 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work. I am well aware of the fact that he has good numbers at home this season but Hendricks has an 8.16 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Tigers confidence at the plate has been buoyed by back to back wins while Hendricks could be shaky on the mound as soon as trouble ensues as he has struggled in recent starts. The Tigers Michael Fulmer has been pitching well but still has allowed 7 earned runs in his past two starts. Now he faces a Cubs team that has piled up runs recently. Chicago has averaged scoring 10 runs per game in going 6-0 to the over their last 6 games. Going further back the Cubs over is now 9-1 their last 10 games. Look for the over to improve to 6-3 in Detroit's inter-league games this season and 8-3 in Cubs inter-league games on the year! 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs |
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07-02-18 | White Sox v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - When you look at the current MLB standings you will see the White Sox near the basement of the AL Central and the Reds in the cellar of the NL Central. The point is that this makes these teams easy for the markets to ignore and that's great for spots like this. These teams square off of in a 3-game series Monday that actually pits two of the hotter lineups in the league. Though you wouldn't expect it from these two teams, both of them have been very hot at the plate. The White Sox won 10-5 at Texas yesterday and are now 5-4 in their last 9 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game on 10.6 hits per game during this stretch. The over is now 10-2 in Chicago's last dozen games. As for the Reds, they have had just 1 under in their last 10 games as they are 7-1-2 to the over after yesterday's 8-2 win went over the total. Cincinnati has averaged scoring 6.7 runs per game their last 14 games! You can see why a 7-6 type game here would not surprise in the least and I am jumping all "over" this total. Chicago's James Shields has a 5.81 ERA on the road this season and though he tends to not give up a lot of hits he has a penchant for giving up big hits and Great American Ball Park is a very hitter friendly park. As for the Reds Luis Castillo, he is having a sub-park season and has compiled a 5.85 ERA on the year. The over is 11-5-1 in his 17 starts. The Cincinnati right-hander has a 6.82 ERA in his last 7 starts so it is not as if he is trending the right direction either. The Reds are a long-term 31-16 to the over in Monday games and that includes 7-1 to the over this season! More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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07-02-18 | Red Sox v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Monday 8* OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - On the surface this game has the appearance of a pitchers duel. Of course that is why the posted total on this one is only 7.5 runs. However, as strong as Max Scherzer has been again this season, he is facing one of the toughest lineups in baseball. The Red Sox will be fired up after getting blasted 11-1 last night in the Bronx. Keep in mind, Boston had won 7 of their last 9 games prior to yesterday's ugly loss. Also, the Red Sox scored an average of 7 runs per game in those 9 games. As for the Nationals, they have been struggling at the plate in most of their games but their 17-run outburst Friday is a sign that they may begin to turn the corner now. I know that Boston's Rick Porcello has great numbers this season but the over is 8-1-1 in his last 10 starts and he has labored in a number of those outings. Porcello's ERA is 4.76 in those 10 outings and that shows he has hardly been dominant the past two months. That said, the Nationals are going to surprise some people by having a big game at the plate Monday night at home. As for the Red Sox, I trust their bats to bounce back tonight. As great as Scherzer is he does make some mistake pitches and, prior to a solid start against the light-hitting Rays (but his strikeouts were down in that one) he allowed 5 homers in his 4 prior starts. Boston has power and we'll see that tonight. Take advantage of the low total here. 8* OVER the total in Washington |
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07-01-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #927 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - We have got a low total to work with here and that makes perfect sense given the long-term numbers of Luis Severino for the Yankees and David Price for the Red Sox. The key to the value here is each of these pitchers have had some struggles against the potent lineups they'll be facing tonight. Severino has piled up solid strikeout numbers versus Boston this season but he also has allowed 7 earned runs on 14 hits in his 11 innings versus the Red Sox this year. Also, in Severino's most recent home start he allowed 3 earned runs on 8 hits in less than 6 innings of work versus the Mariners. As for Boston's Price, the southpaw got crushed by the Yankees on April 11th and allowed 4 earned runs in a start in which he registered just 3 outs! That was at Fenway Park. How about the last time he started at Yankee Stadium? Price gave up 6 earned runs in just 5 innings of work! The Boston lefty is off of a strong start at home but he did allow 2 homers in 6 innings in his most recent road start and that was against a Twins team that doesn't have near the "pop" in their lineup that this Yankees team has! Certainly this is a contrarian play but the weather is favorable for an over, there is reason to believe each starter could struggle against the powerful lineups they are facing which do have some good history against them, and some current numbers also support the fact this game should get to at least 9 runs. Note we need just 4 runs from each team to guarantee us of no worse than a 5-4 final which, of course, puts us in the winners' circle. The Red Sox have scored an average of 7 runs per game their last 9 games. Boston was held below 4 runs just twice in this stretch. The Bronx Bombers had scored 4 or more runs in 8 of their 11 games prior to yesterday's shutout loss. They have averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game the 3 times they've been off of scoreless defeat this season! 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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07-01-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 8 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies @ 4:10 ET - After back to back pitchers duels in this weekend series, look for it to wrap up with some fireworks here in the Sunday finale! I know that Chad Bettis has much better numbers on the road than at home. However, the right-hander has a 4.70 ERA in his last 4 road starts so it is not as if he has truly been "in the zone" of late. In fact, overall his numbers show an 8.35 ERA in his last 6 starts. The Dodgers will have Ross Stripling on the mound in this one. Although he has pitched surprisingly well this season, he has given up 15 hits in the 11 innings spanning his last two starts. Look for that to be a sign of things to come and he has given up 10 hits in the 8 innings spanning his two career starts versus the Rockies. Los Angeles was 5-1 to the over in their last 6 games prior to this series and I look for the Dodgers bats to come back to life after a dismal performance in the first two games of this series. The over is 33-18 in LA's games against right-handed starters this season. Colorado's under at San Francisco in Bettis' most recent start was just the 2nd under in his last 9 starts! Look for the "normalcy" of overs to resume Sunday afternoon! 8* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers |
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07-01-18 | Tigers v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers @ 1:05 ET - The over is 36-25 in Tigers Sunday games the past 3 seasons combined. The over is 8-3 in Blue Jays Sunday games this season. In day games this season Toronto is 20-11 to the over. Yesterday's game stayed under the total but Detroit went 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position and should do a better job in that department against the Jays J.A. Happ in this one. The Toronto left-hander gave up 4 earned runs in 5 innings versus the Tigers earlier this season. Overall this season, only 5 of Happ's last 15 starts have resulted in an under. Each of his last two starts versus the Tigers have resulted in an over. Detroit counters with Jordan Zimmerman and the right-hander has a 6.50 ERA on the road this season. The over is 5-2 in his day game starts this season. Also, Zimmerman was rocked for 7 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work the last time he faced the Blue Jays. Last but not least, Detroit rested starters Dixon Machado and James McCann yesterday while the Blue Jays rested starter Russell Martin yesterday. It is likely all of the above will be back today after not starting yesterday's game. 8* OVER the total in Toronto |
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06-30-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Saturday 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:15 ET - Most will be looking under here but I am going contrarian as I am not going to over-react to Kenta Maeda having one good start. The Dodgers right-hander was excellent versus the Cubs in his most recent outing but he entered that one having allowed 7 earned runs on 13 hits and 9 walks in just 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his 3 prior starts. As for the Rockies German Marquez, he has a history of pitching well on the road. However, his current form suggest we can expect some struggles here and, keep in mind, the ball does carry better in day games at Dodger Stadium than it does at night. Marquez enters this starts having allowed 25 runs (24 earned) on 35 hits in the 25 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 5 starts. All 5 of these outings went over the total and I fully expect another EASY one here. Yesterday's game featured a pair of southpaw starters and the pitchers ruled the game. However, the over is 3-1 in the Rockies last 4 games versus a right handed starter and all 4 of those contests totaled at least 8 runs. Note the total on this game is only a 7.5 and the Dodgers are 33-17 (66%) to the over this season games against a right-handed starter. Also, in LA's Saturday games, the over is 10-5 (67%) this season! The over improves to 6-0 in Colorado's last 6 starts with Marquez on the mound. 10* OVER the total in the Los Angeles Dodgers |
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06-30-18 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 4:10 ET - The past 3 seasons, the Brewers Jhoulys Chacin is 8-13 with a 6.10 ERA in his 39 road outings (30 starts) and opponents have hit .299 against him. Chacin has made day game starts this season and has a 4.78 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP. Those numbers are far from impressive and he now makes a day game start on the road at a hitter friendly venue. You can see from the above why everything is lined up well for Chacin to get pounded at Great American Ball Park this afternoon. The key to the over is that the Reds Tyler Mahle is also is likely to get rocked here. He struggled with walks earlier this season in his start at Milwaukee and was lucky to escape jams. That has been a recurring them for Mahle as, in his last two starts, he has walked 4 in each start and seems to constantly be in trouble. This time, after so much good fortune in tough situations, look for the floodgates to bust wide open against Mahle. The Brewers are scoring an average of 6 runs per game their last 4 games and the Reds are scoring, on average, 6 runs per game their last dozen games. Slugfest time here as the Milwaukee over improves to 5-1 this season in road games against the Reds! 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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06-30-18 | Tigers v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers @ 1:05 ET - Matt Boyd's career started with the Blue Jays. Though his time there in Toronto was brief it was memorable but for the wrong reason. The southpaw struggled badly in his outings at the Rogers Centre. His visits there since coming to Detroit haven't gone well either. In his 4 career starts at Toronto Boyd has gone 0-3 with an 8.66 ERA and opponents have hit .342 against him. He faced the Blue Jays earlier this season in Detroit and a pair of homers led the way to Boyd allowing 4 earned runs in that start. He is known for struggling on the road as, prior to this season, he went 6-12 with a 6.18 ERA in his outings away from home and opponents hit .311 against him. This season he is 1-5 with a 5.71 ERA in his 8 road starts. So, we've established why Boyd is likely to get pounded here but what about Sam Gaviglio? The Blue Jays right-hander is struggling. Gaviglio has allowed 11 runs (10 earned) in just 12 innings spanning his last 3 starts. In his lone start versus the Tigers, June of last year, he walked 4 and struck out just 1 in 5 innings of work. The over is 5-1 in Gaviglio's last 6 starts and 4-2 in Boyd's last 6 starts. That's a combined 9-3 (75%) trend favoring the over here and I look for both of these starters to get pounded early and often in this match-up. 8* OVER the total in Toronto |
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06-29-18 | Braves v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:15 ET - Warm weather, wind blowing out toward left field, and two pitchers likely to get roughed up. Combining those factors with a low total of 8.5 here and I really like our chances of getting rather easy over winner. The Cardinals Miles Mikolas has great full season numbers but has a 4.58 ERA in his last 3 starts and I feel a "fade" could be coming for the "surprise story" of the season. Mikolas has spent the last 3 years pitching in Japan and has certainly pitched better than expected this year. It is not going to last forever and there are some "signs" in recent starts. As for the Braves Julio Teheran, he is off of a rough start versus Baltimore and has also been a pitcher on an overall cooling trend. Since mid-May Teheran has a 6.05 ERA in his last 7 starts. The Braves right-hander is 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA in his last two starts versus the Cardinals. Atlanta is 8-4 to the over (and one push) in Friday games this season. Both teams were off yesterday and the Cards are 7-4 to the over (and one push) when playing after a day off this season. The Braves are 9-1 to the over in their last 10 road games. The Cardinals are off of a tough home loss to the Indians Wednesday but, prior to that game, they had averaged 10.4 hits per game in their 5 prior home games. Also, prior to that loss, the Cards had won 4 straight games overall and averaged 6.5 runs per game. They bounce back here but the Braves will score plenty as well! 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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06-29-18 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Friday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Phillies have been trending under and the Nationals haven't been hitting well lately. However, this pitching match-up is screaming for an over and both lineups should enjoy plenty of success here. With that said, and with this total at just an 8.5, there is exceptional line value here. These lineup just faced this pitchers in each of these hurlers' most recent starts. That is an edge for the hitters and, keep in mind, the Phillies Nick Pivetta is 0-3 with a 5.81 ERA in June. The over is 3-0 in Pivetta's last 3 starts overall. Also, the over is a perfect 3-0 in Pivetta's last 3 starts versus the Nationals. Overall, in 4 starts versus Washington in his career Pivetta has an ugly 9.19 ERA! The Nats are starting Erick Fedde here and he is winless in his 4 starts this season. Fedde has compiled a 5.32 ERA in these outings and now he faces a Phillies team that has averaged scoring 5.3 runs per game their last 11 games. 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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06-28-18 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox have a slugging percentage of .506 this season in home games. That is #1 in the majors. Their prowess at Fenway Park was on display again last night in a 9-6 win over the Angels. As for Los Angeles, they have a .432 slugging percentage on the road this season. This is good for the #6 spot in the majors! All signs are pointing to another "slugfest" Thursday evening. Jaime Barria gets the start for the Angels and he is showings some signs that a downturn is forthcoming. Yes, he has good overall numbers on the season but Barria has a 5.79 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, in his last two road starts the Angels right-hander has been rocked for 7 runs (6 earned) on 14 hits in 11 innings of work. Barria now gets introduced to hitter-friendly Fenway Park on an evening where the wind is expected to be blowing out to left-center at a decent clip. Also, the Red Sox have scored an average of 8 runs per game in their last 6 games! You can easily see why I am expected Barria to get pounded here. The good news for Angels fans however is that LA should also deliver plenty of success at the plate tonight. They'll take advantage of facing Red Sox southpaw Brian Johnson. He hasn't started since early April and has been working out of the bullpen. As a reliever this season he has a 1.47 WHIP and 5.10 ERA. Certainly nothing all that impressive and Johnson has been hit at a .288 clip this season and was also hit at a .281 clip last season in his 5 starts at the MLB level. The over is 6-2 in Angels Thursday games and 7-1-2 in their last 10 road games. More of the same here as the Red Sox stay hot at the plate while LA pounds Johnson. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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06-28-18 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies @ 3:45 ET - After yesterday's pitchers duel (1-0 Rockies win) most will be looking for another under and, indeed, the total has already dropped from an opener of 8 down to a 7.5 as of early game day morning. The fact is that, although AT & T Park is certainly a pitchers park, the ball does carry better there in day games than it does at night. Though temperatures are unlikely to reach 70 in San Francisco today, a strong wind will be blowing out toward center and there are likely to be some big hits for extra bases in this one! The Rockies Jon Gray is off of a strong start versus the Marlins but he had struggled his last 7 starts prior. Gray compiled an 8.13 ERA in his 7 previous outings! Entering this start, the over is 6-1 in Colorado's last 7 games with Gray as the starter. As for the Giants Chris Stratton, he held the light-hitting Padres to just 2 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent start. However, note that he did allow 9 hits in those 6 innings. On the season, Stratton has a 5.08 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in his 8 home starts and the Giants are 6-2 to the over in his outings at AT & T Park! SF is 13-7 to the over this season in home games with a money line ranging from -125 to +125. Colorado is 15-8 to the over this season in road games where their money line is in a range between +125 and -125. Also, the over was 20-4 in the Rockies last 24 games prior to this series. After the first two games stayed under the total, look for an over to finish this 3-game set with a bang! 10* OVER the total in San Francisco |
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06-28-18 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins OVER 7 | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 12:10 ET - After yesterday's pitchers duel (and given today's pitching match-up) many are looking for another under in this match-up. The total has dropped from a 7.5 to a 7 as of game day morning. However, the markets are again ignoring the home/road dichotomy of Zack Greinke as he has pitched much better at home compared to the road this season. Now, I am well aware of the fact that Greinke very successfully made use of his slower eephus curveball in his most recent outing which was at Pittsburgh. However, don't you think the Marlins hitters are aware of that too and will be looking for it? The fact is that Greinke has a 4.94 ERA on the road this season. As for Miami starter Trevor Richards, he has a 4.91 ERA overall in his 9 starts this season. The Diamondbacks have averaged scoring 5 runs per game in their last 9 games. The Marlins had averaged scoring 5 runs per game in their 10 games prior to last night's 2-1 loss and I fully expect a bounce back effort from their lineup Thursday. The over is 14-8 in Arizona's June games and 15-9 in Marlins June games. The over trending resumes here. 8* OVER the total in Miami |
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06-27-18 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher -Â Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:10 ET - The Marlins have been hot at the plate but I got burned by this play (over the total used as a free pick) yesterday. It was the only game on the board where BOTH teams left at least 10 men on base in the game. In other words, it was a game filled with wasted opportunities. I will get payback today in a big way! Prior to yesterday's game falling just a run short of going over the total, the over was 7-1 in Miami's prior 8 games and the Marlins have averaged scoring 5.1 runs per game during this solid 9-game stretch. They should stay hot against Robbie Ray as he is coming off of the disabled list and was supposed to have another rehab start Monday but is instead making this start for the Diamondbacks. Ray has a 4.88 ERA in his 6 starts this season and I don't expect him be 100% here. The good news for Ray is that he should get plenty of run support here as his teammates will be "teeing off" against the Marlins Wei-Yin Chen. The Miami southpaw has a 6.71 ERA this season and, although his numbers at home show him as much better there this season, he did struggle in his most recent outing in south Florida. Why? Because the fact is that Chen is simply not in good current form right now. As a result, I am happy to take advantage of the low total posted here considering that each of these pitchers are truly both "question marks" for this game. The Diamondbacks are 9-5 in their last 14 games thanks in part to offensive production that has led to Arizona averaging 5.4 runs per game during this stretch. The Diamondbacks are 8-3 to the over this season in Wednesday games. Look for another one - easy - here! 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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06-27-18 | Blue Jays v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 6-7 | Win | 102 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 2:10 ET - This is a bit of a contrarian play as both of these pitchers have solid long-term reputations. However, the situation is perfect for an over here and I am taking advantage of the low total posted in this American League match-up. While it is true that the Astros Dallas Keuchel is off of back to back solid starts, it is also true that those outings came against a Royals team that has delivered one of the most anemic hitting performances in the month of June that I have ever seen! They're averaging scoring 2 RUNS per game this month! In other words, it is not all that impressive that Keuchel shut down Kansas City. Note that the Houston southpaw is only 1-4 with a 4.33 ERA in his 7 starts at home this season and his most recent start that was not against KC saw him get absolutely crushed at Texas. The Blue Jays Marco Estrada has shown great current form but 2 of his last 3 starts were at home. The most recent one was on the road but he faced an Angels team that has been struggling at the plate. Overall, on the road this season Estrada has gone 2-3 with a 4.91 ERA in 7 starts and now he takes on a powerful Astros lineup. Houston scored 7 runs yesterday but the game stayed under the total as the Blue Jays got shut out. Prior to this under, the Astros were 16-6 to the over this month. Also, they are 14-9 to the over in day games this season. Toronto is 19-11 to the over in day games this season. Also, prior to yesterday's under, the Blue Jays were 4-1 to the over as a road dog in a range of +175 to +250 this season. Look for "normal" to resume today and this one flies over the total. 8* OVER the total in Houston |
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06-27-18 | Reds v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds @ 12:10 ET - Yesterday only 2 of the 15 games saw both teams amass double digits in hits and I had both of them for "over" plays. One was the A's / Tigers which totaled 16 runs. However, the other one was this match-up and they totaled just 8 runs despite each team reaching double digits in hits. After getting burned in this Reds / Braves match-up yesterday, I won't hesitate to come right back with it in this early Wednesday series finale. The over was 5-0-1 in the Braves 6 games prior to yesterday's 5-3 loss. The over was 3-0-1 in the Reds 4 games prior to yesterday's 5-3 win. Cincinnati is starting Luis Castillo and he is having a sub-par season with a 5.70 ERA on the year and the over is 10-5-1 in his 16 starts. Atlanta counters with Sean Newcomb whom is having a strong season but did allow 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his prior start versus the Reds this season. Also, though he enters this start off of back to back strong outings, he faced the struggling Orioles and light-hitting Padres in those two games. Now he takes on a Reds team that has averaged scoring 7 runs per game in going 8-1 in their last 9 games! The over is 14-7 this season in Cincinnati's games versus left-handed starters. In home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs, only 27 of the Reds last 72 games have stayed under the total! This one makes up for yesterday in my opinion and flies over the total. 8* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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06-26-18 | Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs @ 10:10 ET - These lineups just faced these pitchers in their most recent starts and I expect that to benefit the hitters. Yesterday's game turned into a surprising pitchers duel as both starters pitched much better than anyone could have expected. Kenta Maeda had been awful of late and Duante Underwood was an unproven rookie. With that said, watch tonight's game be "surprising" the other way as the Dodgers Ross Stripling and Cubs Jon Lester both fare worse than most would expect. Stripling gave up 8 hits in 6 innings at Wrigley Field on Wednesday. Lester only gave up 5 hits in 7 innings in that start but he also only struck out 1 while walking 3. The point is that both pitchers gave up a lot of solid contact even though you wouldn't know it by looking at the final score - a 4-0 Cubs win. Having just seen these pitchers, the lineups are really going to do some damage tonight. The Dodgers had averaged 7 runs per game in their 3-game series sweep of the Mets in New York. The Cubs had recorded a perfect 3-0 to the over in the final 3 games of their 4-game series at Cincinnati. The point is that one shouldn't over-react to last night's surprising result. These are two quality lineups and here is an interesting factoid relating to value here. The Dodgers are 18-9 versus left-handed starters this season and yet the over is 6-20-1 in those 27 games. The Dodgers have hit southpaws much better than what the O/U record reflects and so we get value (total of 7.5) in a spot like this. LA is a top ten team in the majors for slugging percentage versus left-handed starters this season. The Cubs are hitting .258 on the road this season and that ranks them #3 in the National League. Lester has a 7.88 ERA and a 2.13 WHIP in his last two starts at Dodger Stadium. More struggles for him tonight but his Chicago teammates should hit Stripling hard in the rematch as well and that sends this one flying over the low number. 10* OVER the total in LA Dodgers |
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06-26-18 | Reds v. Braves OVER 9 | 5-3 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:35 ET - Yesterday's game was a "push" as the closing total was 9 and the game ended up a 5-4 Braves win in extra innings. The total for today's game opened up at a 9.5 but moved down to a 9 and there is excellent value with the over here in this spot. The Reds Matt Harvey is off of a win in his most recent start but that is certainly rare and was just his 2nd win of the entire season. On the road this year he is winless in 7 starts and has compiled a 6.29 ERA. Also, the right-hander has lasted between 5 and 6 innings in each of his last 3 starts at Atlanta and he gave up 6 earned runs each in 2 of the 3 outings. Look for another rough on here. As for Braves starters Anibal Sanchez, I am well aware of the fact that he has good numbers this season. The fact is that he gave up 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start and, prior to this, slumping or weak-hitting teams in the majority of his recent outings. Now he takes on a Reds team that has been surprisingly hot. Cincinnati has scored an average of 7.1 runs per game in going 7-1 in their last 8 games. The Reds have averaged 10.4 hits per game during this hot stretch. With the Braves also hot at the plate (6.5 runs on 11.5 hits L6 games) this one should turn into an easy over. None of Atlanta's last 6 games and none of Cincinnati's last 4 games have resulted in an under. The over is 18-11 in Braves games versus teams with a losing record this season. The over is 45-25-5 in the Reds last 75 games played in the month of June. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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06-26-18 | A's v. Tigers OVER 9 | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Oakland A's @ 7:10 ET - The A's won 5-4 yesterday and hit two more home runs as they built on a major league record! Oakland has hit at least one homer in 26 straight road games! Yesterday's game stayed just under the total despite 22 hits (including 6 doubles and 3 homers). Although yesterday's A's win stayed under the total, the over is still 11-2 in Oakland's last 13 games. Before being held to just 3 runs Sunday, the A's had scored an average of 7.1 runs per game. After scoring 5 in yesterday's game Oakland is now 7-2 in their last 9 games. This is a confident team right now at the plate. On the mound today is where their issue will be however. That's because Frankie Montas gets the start and he has great overall numbers but has faded in his last two starts. Montas has allowed 8 runs (6 earned) on 16 hits and 7 walks in his last 12 innings of work. When you're allowing nearly 2 baserunners per inning it will catch up with you! The Tigers have averaged 4.7 runs per game this season when at home. Detroit is starting lefty Blaine Hardy and he has been hit hard in 4 of his 7 starts this season. With Oakland having won 4 of their last 5 games versus left-handed starters, it is likely that Hardy struggles again here! The over is 13-5 in A's road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The over is a long-term 39-21 when Detroit enters a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Both of these starting pitchers are unlikely to be on top of their game here. Also, we're noticing a league-wide trend that bullpens are starting to get a little more roughed up as this season has gone on. That certainly played a role in 11 of the 15 games Sunday going over the total. After only half of the games went over the opening total yesterday, the "over trend" is likely to resume on Tuesday including in this game! Only 38 of the Tigers last 102 home games with a money line range of +125 to -125 have stayed under the total! 8* OVER the total in Detroit |
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06-25-18 | Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs @ 10:10 ET - The Dodgers hit 7 homers in their big win at New York yesterday against the Mets. Now they'll be facing an unproven rookie hurler making his MLB debut. Look for the Cubs Duane Underwood to struggle here. The 23-year old right-hander has not fared all that well in the minors once he got past the rookie and single-A leagues. In double-A ball two years ago he went 0-5 with a 4.91 ERA in 13 starts. Last season in double-A ball again he did go 13-7 but Underwood compiled a 4.43 ERA in those outings. This season in triple-A ball he is 3-7 with a 4.27 ERA. Today he'll make his major league debut in a pitcher-friendly park but the way the Dodgers are seeing the ball right now it may not matter! LA is crushing the ball right now and Underwood's only hope is for some solid run support which, actually, he is likely to get! The Cubs certainly have a powerful lineup of their own and they'll be facing a struggling Kenta Maeda. He is winless with a 6.09 ERA and 2.13 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, in his career versus the Cubs, Maeda's 3 starts have seen him compile a 5.56 ERA and 1.94 WHIP. As you can see from those WHIP figures noted above, Maeda is likely to allow 2 baserunners per inning tonight. When a pitcher is doing that it doesn't take very long to get into trouble. This is particularly true against a solid lineup like the Cubs have. The Dodgers averaged 6 runs per game in their 3-game sweep of the Mets this past weekend. The over is 5-2 in Chicago's last 7 road games and the Cubs have averaged scoring nearly 5 runs per game during this stretch. The over is 3-1 this season when the Cubs enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. The over is a solid 32-16 in LA's games versus right-handed starters this season. More of the same Monday in late night ESPN action. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers |
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06-25-18 | A's v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Monday 8* OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Oakland A's @ 3:10 ET - The A's lost 10-3 yesterday but got another home run to set a major league record as Oakland has hit at least one homer in 25 straight road games! That could hold significance here on a mild afternoon in Detroit. Certainly Comerica Park is more of a pitchers park than a hitters park but games where the ball does carry a little better are games like today where it is an afternoon game and there is not a significant wind factor. With yesterday's A's loss going over the total, the over is now 11-1 in Oakland's last dozen games. They're facing Jordan Zimmeran whom survived his last start by getting a lot of fly ball outs. Again, that may not work here considering the A's haven't just been hitting fly balls on the road, they've been getting a lot of wood on balls and knocking them out of the park. Before being held to just 3 runs yesterday, the A's had scored an average of 7.1 runs per game and gone 6-1 in their last 7 games. This is a confident team right now at the plate. On the mound today is where their issue will be however. That's because veteran journeyman Edwin Jackson gets the start. Jackson has a 5.57 ERA in the 160 innings spanning his last two MLB seasons (2016 and 2017). The last year in which he was successful at the MLB level was in 2015. He has been pitching in the minors this season and now faces a Tigers team returning home where they've averaged 4.7 runs per game this season. Keep in mind, Zimmerman just returned from the disabled list before his start against the White Sox and that was over a week ago. Both of these starting pitchers are unlikely to be on top of their game here. Also, we're noticing a league-wide trend that bullpens are starting to get a little more roughed up as this season has gone on. That certainly played a role in 11 of the 15 games Sunday going over the total. More of the same here. The over is 13-4 this season in Oakland's road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Only 37 of the Tigers last 101 home games with a money line range of +125 to -125 have stayed under the total! 8* OVER the total in Detroit |
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06-24-18 | Phillies v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 8:05 ET - Nick Pivetta is off of a fantastic start but that was at home against St Louis and he really can't be trusted here. He was struggling heading into that start and he also has a 6.23 ERA on the road this season. Additionally, Pivetta has struggled badly against the Nationals in his career. He is winless with an 11.81 ERA and 2.44 WHIP in his 3 starts versus Washington and all of those outings have occurred since May of last year. In other words, the Nationals have had his number in very recent action. The key to the over here is that the Phillies have been heating up at the plate and they face an unproven hurler here. Philadelphia had gone 8-2 to the over prior to yesterday's 8-3 win saying just under the total. The Phillies have averaged 6.4 runs per game in their past 9 games. They're facing Jefry Rodriguez here and this will be just his 2nd career MLB start and the ESPN cameras will be on the 24-year old hurler. In his two outings this season (one start) he has been hit hard by left-handed bats and the Phillies have quite a few of those as they are loaded with switch-hitters. Rodriguez allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his first career MLB start and this match-up should prove to be very entertaining for those of you whom enjoy seeing plenty of runs! 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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06-24-18 | Padres v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres @ 4:05 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total but this pitching match-up Sunday should lead to an easy over. The Padres Eric Lauer shows the betting markets a 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts but he does have a 1.50 WHIP during this stretch. The San Diego southpaw has been hit hard on the road this season. The Padres are 1-5 in his road starts this season and he has compiled a 5.83 ERA and 1.94 WHIP away from home. That means Lauer is allowing about 2 baserunners per inning when on the road. The wind will be blowing out at a good clip at AT & T Park Sunday and the Giants have won 5 of their last 7 games and averaged scoring about 5 runs per game in the victories. San Francisco will have Dereck Rodriguez on the mound in this one. The rookie right-hander is going through the "growing pains" of pitching in the majors and has allowed 20 hits in the 14 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Rodriguez has a 6.28 ERA during this stretch and the Giants are 3-0 to the over in those 3 starts. The over is 19-10 in San Francisco's games versus teams with a losing record this season. Also, the Giants are 19-11 to the over in games against left-handed starters. SF also is 41-27 to the over in games where they are a home fave of -125 to -175 and that includes 8-4 this season. More of the same here on a hitter-friendly afternoon by the bay. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco |
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06-24-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:10 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Jhoulys Chacin has good numbers at home for the Brewers this season but this is a match-up issue for him. The Milwaukee right-hander has gone 0-6 in his 7 career starts versus the Cardinals. This is not all "ancient history" either as Chacin has faced the Cards 3 times since August and has compiled a 6.00 ERA in those 3 starts. He'll be opposed by Luke Weaver and the St Louis right-hander would likely rather be facing a team other than the Brewers. Versus Milwaukee, since August as well, Weaver has given up 12 earned runs on 22 hits in 14 and 1/3 innings. He also enters this start in overall poor current form. Weaver has allowed 4 earned runs in EACH of his last 3 starts even though he didn't log more than 5 and 1/3 innings in any of those 3 outings! Yesterday's 3-2 Cardinals win stayed under the total of course and this series has an "under" trend. However, this pitching match-up is conducive to a high-scoring series finale. Watch the bats come to life in this one as they face a familiar hurler on the mound whom they've enjoyed seeing! 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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06-24-18 | Tigers v. Indians OVER 9.5 | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Detroit Tigers @ 1:10 ET - The Indians have now won 6 straight games and averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this hot streak. Cleveland will stay hot against Matt Boyd. The Tigers lefty has, for the most part, held the Indians in check in his career. However, the southpaw enters this start having allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start plus Boyd has a 4.74 ERA this season. The Tigers haven't been hitting the ball particularly well of late but that all changes today as Cleveland is starting Adam Plutko. The inexperienced right-hander has a 5.34 ERA in his 7 MLB appearances (4 starts). Plutko has allowed 9 homers in his 28 and 2/3 innings at the major league level. The right-hander's last two starts have seen him allow a pair of homers in each start and 5 earned runs in each start despite not completing more than 5 innings in either outing. The over is 2-0 in his home starts this season. Also, the Indians are a perfect 6-0 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Tribe have gone 8-3 to the over in Sunday games and 25-13 to the over in home games this season. This total looks big but don't be fooled. In May and June combined, the Indians have scored a total of 270 runs which ranks #1 in the majors. As for the Tigers, the key is facing Plutko in this one plus an Indians bullpen that is 5-14 with a 5.29 ERA which ranks them 28th (out of 30) in the majors this season! 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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06-23-18 | Royals v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:15 ET - After yesterday's pitchers duel (1-0 Royals win with the only run in the top of the 9th) most will be looking for another under today. After all Lance McCullers has had great numbers this season as well as last year plus Ian Kennedy has a 1.99 ERA in his career starts versus the Astros. In typical contrarian fashion, I am going with the over in this match-up but, as always, it is not without good reason! The fact is that Kennedy allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start versus Houston. Also, on the road this season, Kennedy is 1-3 with a 6.16 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP! As for McCullers, he just faced the Royals Sunday and allowed 4 runs (2 earned) on 6 hits in 6 innings. Kansas City getting a 2nd shot at him in the span of just a week will help them. Also, McCullers has not been as sharp overall in his last 5 starts as he was earlier this season. The Houston right-hander has a 4.91 ERA in his last 5 outings and the over has gone 4-1 in these 5 starts. Even with yesterday's result, the over is still 8-3 in the Astros last 11 games. Prior to the 1-0 loss yesterday, Houston had averaged 11.4 hits and 6.9 runs per game in their 10 previous games. The over is 8-4 in the Astros 12 Saturday games this season. Prior to yesterday's under, the over had gone 11-5-1 in Kansas City's last 17 games versus the Astros. Look for that trend to resume tonight after yesterday's unusual result. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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06-23-18 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 4:05 ET - With yesterday's game going 13 innings, each team was forced to use extra bullpen. That is advantage #1 here. Advantage #2 here is that we're getting an extremely low total to work with here because Zach Greinke is on the mound. Certainly the Diamondbacks right-hander is a fantastic veteran pitcher but the numbers this season don't lie! He is much better at home than on the road and the markets just haven't caught up with this yet! Greinke is just 3-4 with an ugly 5.66 ERA and has allowed 12 homers in his 7 road starts this season! He enters this start on an "over streak" of 4 straight overs in his outings. He has given up 20 hits and walked 8 in the 16 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. That included a sub-par start versus the Pirates and that outing was at home! As for Joe Musgrove of Pittsburgh, the right-hander had a strong start at Arizona in that same series in which Greinke pitched. That is causing the markets to over-react to him here (keeping this total low) when the reality is that the Diamondbacks are likely to get much better at-bats against him now that they're seeing him for a 2nd game in a span of less than two weeks. The Pirates are 0-3 in Musgrove's last 3 starts and he has a 6.46 ERA during this stretch. The over is 16-5 in Arizona's road games with a money line between +125 and -125 this season. The over is 15-8 this season in Pirates games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs and now this total has dropped to a 7.5 this morning adding even more value to this spot. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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06-23-18 | A's v. White Sox OVER 9 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Oakland A's @ 2:10 ET - Both games of yesterday's double-header went over the total and that sets this one up well for the momentum to continue. The White Sox are starting Dylan Covey. Though the Chicago right-hander has good overall numbers, he has struggled in his past two starts. In Covey's last two outings he has given up 16 hits and 5 walks in 12 innings of work for a 1.75 WHIP. The righty faces an A's team that had won 5 straight games and averaged scoring 7.8 runs per game during the streak, before losing Game 2 of yesterday's double-header. Oakland has gone 9-1 to the over in their last 10 games. The White Sox have now gone over the total in 4 straight games and will take advantage of facing a struggling Daniel Mengden. Although the Oakland right-hander had a strong start versus the Pale Hose earlier this season, a repeat of that is quite unlikely. Mengden is winless in his last 3 starts and has a 10.04 ERA during this rough stretch. Only 5 of his 15 starts this season have stayed under the total. The over is 11-4 this season in A's road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Look for another one here! 8* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game |
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06-22-18 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - I know the Yankees and Rays have both been trending under of late. However, this total has dropped to a 7.5 and I see a lot of value here considering that Tampa Bay is going with another "bullpen start" here and New York's starter is likely to get hit hard. The Rays are starting Ryne Stanek and he has impressive numbers but it doesn't matter that much as he'll only be in the game for an inning or two. The Yankees are starting CC Sabathia and he is coming off of his deepest start of the season. Coincidentally it was against the Rays. Though he held them to just 3 earned runs he did allow 10 hits in the game. In fact, the Yankees southpaw has now given up 21 hits in the 16 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus Tampa Bay. Don't be surprised when the Rays enjoy some success at the plate in this one tonight. TB's issue tonight will be on the mound and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games and allowed at least 4 runs in all 5 of those losses. The Yankees have won 6 of their last 7 games and have averaged 5.2 runs per game in the 6 victories. I am looking for at least a 5-4 type game here as both teams will enjoy success at the plate. The Yanks lineup too powerful to be shut down by the Rays parade of relievers in this game. The Rays lineup is very familiar with Sabathia and will continue to notch hits against him which will translate to runs. The Rays scored only a single run in their most recent home game but that was preceded by TB averaging 5.4 runs per game in their 8 prior home games and they'll get the job done again here at the plate at Tropicana Field. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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06-21-18 | Orioles v. Nationals OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Max Scherzer has pitched extremely well for the Nationals. However, this total has gone from an opener of a 7.5 in some shops to now being as low as a 6.5 in some books as of early game day morning. The fact is that the Orioles are likely to surprise people and score a few here and certainly the Nationals should pound Kevin Gausman. Even thought the Baltimore right-hander has some decent numbers on the season, he has been fading recently and has allowed 23 hits in his last 17 and 2/3 innings. As strong as Scherzer has been this season he has given up an average of 2 earned runs per start in his last 6 starts. In only 1 of those 6 starts did he allow less than 2 earned runs. The Orioles will step to the plate with some extra confidence in DC tonight because they've won 2 of their last 3 games and have averaged 6 runs on 10 hits per game over their last 4 games. As for the Nationals, they got shutout yesterday but had previously scored 5 or more runs in 4 of their 6 prior games. They'll bounce back here. The Nats had also reached double digits in hits in 4 of their 6 previous games. The over is 3-1 in Gausman's last 4 starts versus the Nationals. Also, Gausman has been hit hard in 3 of his last 4 road starts. Overall, in this 4 road games, the Baltimore right-hander has a 7.08 ERA! Take advantage of the very low posted total here. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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06-21-18 | Mets v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #902 Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets @ 3:10 ET - The first 3 games of this 4-game series have been nuts and all 3 games flew over the total. That has caused the total on this game to move from an 11 to an 11.5 as of early game day morning and I love the value with the under here given this pitching match-up. Keep in mind, the last two games totaled 18 runs each. But out of those 36 runs scored only 5 runs were scored between the 6th and 9th innings. In other words, if we get good starts from the Mets Steven Matz and Rockies Kyle Freeland - and this is likely - we should be in good shape given the inflated total here. Matz has been fantastic on the road this season as he has a 1.55 ERA in his 6 road starts. Also, the Mets lefty has started versus the Rockies 4 times in his career and only one of those starts was a poor one and that outing did NOT occur at Coors Field. In fact, his lone career start at Coors Field was a respectable one. Overall, other than one poor outing, the other 3 starts that Matz has made versus Colorado have seen him compile a solid 3.18 ERA. Since he enters this start in top form I expect another strong outing here. As for the Rockies Freeland, he has been fantastic at home this season. The Colorado southpaw has compiled a 2.94 ERA in his 5 home starts this season and 80% of those have stayed under the total! His only career start versus the Mets (last month) stayed under the total and the starts Matz has made versus the Rockies have seen 3 of the 4 stay under the total. The under has cashed 13 of 21 in New York's day games this season and also 13 of 21 when the Mets are facing a team with a losing record. The under has cashed 13 of 19 when the Rockies are a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175. Going against the masses here and expecting a very well pitched game here. 10* UNDER the total in Colorado |
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06-20-18 | A's v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 12-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Oakland A's @ 3:40 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the A's were 6-0 to the over in their 6 games prior to Tuesday's 4-2 extra inning win. Oakland will be starting Frankie Montas in this one. I am well aware that he has some impressive numbers this season. However, I am also aware that he had a 7.03 ERA last season and was hit at a .302 clip. Montas has made only 4 starts this season and he has been hit at a .262 clip so I am not completely sold on him just yet. The ball does carry better in day games at Petco Park. I feel we have good value as a result because San Diego also is starting a pitcher whom could struggle some here. Joey Lucchesi has good numbers on the season but is returning from a stint on the disabled list. Before being put on the shelf with an injury, the Padres lefty had given up 7 earned runs on 17 hits (including 5 homers) in his last 3 starts. The A's are playing with a lot of confidence right now thanks to 3 straight wins and the over is 4-2 in Lucchesi's 6 home starts this season. The Padres have lost 3 straight games and the over is 3-1 this season when they enter a game off of 3 or more consecutive losses. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
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06-20-18 | Dodgers v. Cubs OVER 7 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 2:20 ET - With the wind blowing in today we're getting a very manageable number on this total. Both games of yesterday's double-header stayed under the total and that adds to the value here as these are two very potent lineups and they'll be ready to explode with a big game this afternoon. Keep in mind, the Cubs Jon Lester has struggled the last two times he has faced the Dodgers. Once was in the post-season last year and the other prior start was in the regular season in May. Neither went well for the Cubs southpaw. Although Los Angeles has a low batting average versus lefties this season, they lead the majors in doubles versus left-handers and that is why their slugging percentage versus left-handed pitchers does rank them in the upper half of the majors. The Dodgers counter with Ross Stripling here. He has been pitching very well but the Cubs have a .340 on base percentage in day games this season and that is #1 in the National League. With a low posted total of only 7 runs here, I love the value with the over in this one. Too much potency in both lineups for this low of a total no matter the weather nor pitching match-up. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs |
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06-20-18 | Braves v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves @ 12:35 ET - With yesterday's 11-4 Braves win flying over the total, Atlanta is now 8-1 to the over in their last 9 road games. Toronto is now 7-2 to the over in inter-league games this season. The Blue Jays are starting JA Happ. The southpaw has been pitching well but the Braves .471 slugging percentage versus left-handers this season ranks them #1 in the National League! Atlanta is starting Anibal Sanchez. He is off of a strong start but he has yet to put together two straight quality starts this season. He has alternated good and "average" starts and in those 3 sub-par outings (due for another one here) Sanchez has a 5.02 ERA. 8* OVER the total in Toronto |
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06-19-18 | Diamondbacks v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #927 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 10:05 ET - These teams combined for 11 runs on 22 hits yesterday and I expect another slugfest tonight. The Diamondbacks are now 15-4 to the over this season in road games with a money line between +125 and -125. Arizona has averaged 10 hits per game in their last dozen games. The over is 8-3-1 in these 12 games. The over is 2-1 in the 3 road starts that the Dbacks Matt Koch has made this season. 2 of his last 3 starts have been good ones but Koch faced the Mets and Marlins in the 2 strong starts and both of those lineups are much weaker than the Angels lineup he will face today. The most recent road start Koch made saw him allow 7 runs (5 earned) in 5 innings of work. The over is 7-0-1 in the Angels last 8 games as they have not had an under since June 9th! Los Angeles has averaged 5.4 runs on 9.8 hits per game in their last 5 games. The Angels issue today however won't be at the plate it will be on the mound. Felix Pena will be making his first ever major league start. Out of the bullpen, since the start of the 2017 season, Pena has a 5.59 ERA and has given up 10 homers in 37 innings as a reliever during this time. Walks have also been an issue for Pena at the MLB level and that has played a role in his sub-par 1.57 WHIP since the start of last season. Simply put, the way the Diamondbacks are swinging the bats right now I do not seeing this going well at all for Pena. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels |
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06-19-18 | Rangers v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers @ 8:15 ET - This is a contrarian play because both of the starting pitchers in this match-up have had their games trend under all season long. Each starter has made 14 starts this season and only 3 of Cole Hamels starts and 2 of Jason Hammel's starts have resulted in an over this year! This his helping to keep this total lower than it should be. Hammel had a great start versus Texas recently but they are likely to fare much better in a 2nd look at him just three weeks later. Note that Hammel has allowed 22 hits in 19 and 1/3 innings in his 3 starts since the strong outing versus the Rangers. The Royals right-hander has a 5.00 ERA on the season. As for Hamels, the Rangers southpaw is off of a strong start at Los Angeles against the Dodgers but he previously allowed 5 earned runs in 2 of his 3 prior starts and that included the start versus Kansas City. Now the Royals get a quick second look at him 3 weeks later and this time it is at Kauffman Stadium. Yesterday's game was 5-3 by the 4th inning and yet it still didn't go over the total. This is adding to the value here because the Rangers bullpen is certainly nothing special and the Royals bullpen ranks as the worst in the American League. In other words, the lack of late scoring in yesterday's game was certainly unexpected. Today will make up for that. Also, the over is a long-term 35-20 in Rangers Tuesday games and that includes Texas going 8-2 to the over on Tuesdays this season. The Royals had gone over the total in 3 straight games entering this series. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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06-18-18 | Diamondbacks v. Angels OVER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 110 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 10:05 ET - The Diamondbacks have lost back to back games and were held to a total of just 4 runs in their last two games. However, that is leading to line value here as Arizona had previously won 7 of their last 8 games and averaged scoring 8.5 runs per game during this hot streak. The Angels are off of a 6-5 loss yesterday and the over is now 6-0 with one push their last 7 games. The over is 14-4 this season when the Dbacks are on the road and the money line is in a range of +125 to -125. The over is 6-2 in Arizona's Monday games this season. The Diamondbacks Zack Greinke has struggled in his past two starts and has a 5.91 ERA on the season in his 6 road starts. The over is 4-2 in his 6 starts away from home as he has been a different pitcher when on the road. Jaime Barria gets the start for the Angels here and he has good numbers on the season but has allowed a total of 5 homers in his last 3 starts. Barria was hit hard i his most recent start and was fortunate the damage wasn't worse. He won't be so fortunate here. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels |
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06-18-18 | Cardinals v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Monday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies won 10-9 yesterday and the over is now 7-2 in their last 9 games. Philadelphia has averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game in their last 4 games. The Phillies should hit well again today but their issue will be on the mound. Nick Pivetta is currently struggling as he is 0-3 with an 8.36 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, the Philadelphia right-hander has a 6.30 ERA in his two career starts versus the Cardinals. St Louis counters with Miles Mikolas here and the right-hander has a 5.06 ERA in his last two road starts. The over is 4-2 in the 6 road starts that Mikolas has made this season. The Cards are off of a 5-0 shutout win over the Cubs last night and there is not going to be anything close to a shutout in this one so I am taking advantage of the low total posted on this game. St Louis is a long-term 63-45 to the over in road games with a money line between -125 and +125. Also, the over is 13-7 this season when the Phillies are at home in a game with a money line in a +125 to -125 range. 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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06-17-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - The Cubs won yesterday's game 6-3 making it an over or a push for all over players on the total. Chicago has now scored 6 or more runs in 3 of their last 5 games and I feel the Cardinals Jack Flaherty is in trouble here. I know he has pitched well overall on the season but he has been roughed up in 2 of his last 3 starts and this could be a sign of things to come for the rookie right-hander. The Cardinals have allowed an average of 6 runs per game in their last 11 games and the Cubs have plenty of confidence as they've been heating up and have won 7 of their last 10 games. Look for St Louis to also get their sticks going today as they face Jose Quintana. The Cubs left-hander was fortunate to not allow any earned runs (all 3 were unearned) in his start at St Louis last month. Quintana gave up 5 hits plus walked 4 in only 4 innings of work. He has allowed 4 homers in his last 15 and 2/3 innings versus the Cardinals. Both teams hit the ball quite well yesterday (19 hits) and I expect this to continue today. The Cards are very familiar with Quintana and though the Cubs are not familiar with Flaherty, there are some signs that the rookie's campaign is about to encounter a bumpy stretch of road. Prior to a strong start against a weak Padres lineup he allowed 10 runs (7 earned) on 15 hits in just 10 innings of work. Look for a start along those lines here but look for the Cardinals to also pound Quintana in this one. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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06-17-18 | Angels v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 103 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
Top Play SPECIAL - Rickenbach MLB Game #921 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:05 ET - The A's Daniel Mengden has allowed 12 earned runs in less than 9 innings spanning his last two starts! The Angels Andrew Heaney has allowed 10 earned runs in 8 innings spanning his last two road starts! Oakland is 5-0 to the over their last 5 games after yesterday's game went over the total. That result also brought Los Angeles to 5-0 to the over (and one push) their last 6 games. Only 3 of Mengden's 9 home starts this season have resulted in an under. Amazingly, none of Heaney's 5 road starts have gone over the total even though he has a 5.68 ERA away from home on the season. This is helping to give line value here because this is a "false trend" as Heaney has not pitched well on the road an yet his starts away from home are 0-4 to the over (and one push) on the season. Take advantage of the low total here because both pitchers are struggling and both teams have been trending over of late. It is the perfect combo, particularly on a mild afternoon with the wind blowing out at Oakland Coliseum, for a slugfest. Both these pitchers have been giving up the long ball of late. Heaney is coming off of a start where he allowed 3 bombs and Mengen has given up 6 dingers in his last 2 starts! 10* OVER the total in Oakland |
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06-17-18 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 10 | 12-13 | Win | 105 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #929 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies @ 3:05 ET - The Rockies Jon Gray is off of a strong start versus the Phillies but Philadelphia has not been hitting well at all and the long-term numbers on Gray tell the full story. Gray is 1-3 with a 6.97 ERA in his 4 day game starts this season. Overall he has a 5.68 ERA on the season and, in each month so far this season (March, April, May, June) he has at least a 5.57 ERA in each month. As you can see, Gray has consistently struggled and that day game stat noted above is no fluke. The past two seasons the Rockies right-hander had a combined 4.93 ERA in day game outings. The Rangers scored 5 runs yesterday and that is the 4th time in their last 5 games that Texas has scored at least 5 runs. The problem yesterday for over players was that the Rockies only scored 2 runs. However, a complete bounce back can be expected here as Colorado "tees off" against Yovanni Gallardo in this one. He has been pitching in the minors and has some decent (though not great) numbers there but now is back in the bigs where the veteran has struggled badly ever since 2015. The past 3 seasons combined (includes some work out of Reds bullpen this season) Gallardo has gone 11-18 with an ugly 5.81 ERA. Now he faces a Rockies team that had been swinging the bats very well prior to yesterday's loss. In fact, heading into yesterday's game Colorado was on a 14-1 run to the over! Look for that strong trending to resume here as there is plenty of reason to believe that both these pitchers get rocked Sunday. 8* OVER the total in Texas |
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06-17-18 | Twins v. Indians OVER 9.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins @ 1:10 ET - NOTE that Shane Bieber is now slated to start this game for the Indians after Adam Plutko (original expected starter for today) ending up being used for two innings of relief in yesterday's game. This is not a good situation for Bieber as it is only his 2nd MLB start and in his first start he also faced the Twins. In that outing just a couple weeks ago Bieber got rocked for 4 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work. That start was on his 23rd birthday and this is a young hurler whom has only made 7 minor league starts above the AA level. All of those were this season at the AAA level. In other words, he is still very inexperience and the Twins will have plenty of confidence here since they scored 9 runs in yesterday's win plus roughed Bieber up when they faced him on the 31st of May. The Twins will have Jake Odorizzi getting the start in this one. The right-hander has a 9.20 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Indians. That includes 6 homers allowed in less than 15 innings of work versus Cleveland and 5 of those have come in the two starts Odorizzi has made versus the Tribe this season. The over is 22-4-1 in the Indians last 27 games at home. The over is 5-1 in the 6 starts Odorizzi has made versus Cleveland in his career. Minnesota is 6-2 to the over this season in games where they are a road dog in a range of +125 to +175. In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season, the Indians are 5-0 / 100% PERFECT to the over! 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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06-16-18 | Red Sox v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #973 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:15 ET - These are two high-quality lineups here and, after yesterday's game finished with 13 runs, I expect the fireworks to continue at the plate on Saturday. I am well aware of Steven Wright's long-term consecutive innings scoreless streak but this is still just his 3rd start of the season. His first two came against the Tigers and Orioles and both of those clubs pale in comparison to the Mariners lineup! Also, Safeco Field may not result in the typical knuckleball movement that Wright relies on so much. As for the Mariners starter today, Wade LeBlanc gets the call. The southpaw has an impressive ERA so far this season but in his last 3 starts he has given up 4 homers. In his last two starts LeBlanc has given up 5 earned runs on 11 hits and 5 walks in a total of just 9 innings of work. The over is 8-2-1 in the Mariners last 11 games. The over is 9-3 in Seattle's Saturday games this season. This is Boston's 12th Saturday game of the season and, thus far, only 4 of them have stayed under the total. I know this is a bit of a contrarian play based on the low ERA each of these two pitchers have had this season but I feel they are both over-rated at this point. At the same time, I also feel this match-up features two of the more "dangerous" lineups in baseball. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
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06-16-18 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 10 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #977 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies @ 4:05 ET - Yesterday's game flew over the total by the top of the 2nd inning. The over is now an incredible 14-1 in the Rockies last 15 games. Colorado continues to crush the ball and the Rangers, though not the team they once use to be, are still certainly a better hitting team at home than on the road. Also, Texas has fared better against southpaws than righties this season. The Rangers should "tee off" against Kyle Freeland here. The Colorado lefty has a 5.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed 21 hits (including 4 homers) in the 18 innings spanning those 3 outings. Texas counters with Mike Minor. I know the Rangers left-hander is off of a quality start versus the Astros but those types of outings have truly been rare for him. Minor has a 5.65 ERA on the season and has given up 11 earned runs in the 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts versus the Rockies. The over is 3-0 in the Rangers last 3 games versus a southpaw starter and Texas is 13-7 to the over versus lefties on the season. The Rangers also are 8-4 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. The Rockies are 14-7 to the over this season in road games with a money line in a range of -125 to +125 this season. More of the same Saturday as the Rockies over trending continues rolling strong. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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06-16-18 | Tigers v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers @ 2:10 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total but look for a slugfest this afternoon at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Tigers are starting Jordan Zimmerman. Not only is he coming off the disabled list after battling a shoulder impingement in the shoulder of his throwing arm, he got rocked in his minor league rehabilitation starts. Prior to going on the disabled list in early May, he had an overall 4.88 ERA with Detroit this season including 6.23 ERA on the road. Against the White Sox, Zimmerman has an 8.22 ERA in his last 3 starts! The good news for Detroit fans however is that the Tigers sticks should enjoy plenty of success at the plate today to counterbalance Zimmerman's expected struggles. That's because Detroit will be facing a struggling Lucas Giolito. The White Sox right-hander has a 7.09 ERA overall this season and that includes a horrific 11.62 ERA at home this season. Giolito faced the Tigers in early April and gave up 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work. The over is an amazing 8-1 in Zimmerman's 9 career starts versus the Pale Hose. Both these teams have trended under recently but this pitching match-up will reverse those trends in a big way on Saturday! 8* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox |
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06-15-18 | Rays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | 0-5 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Friday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:05 ET - Yesterday's game stayed just under the total and I am well aware of the Yankees current 9-game under streak. However, Nathan Eovaldi gets the start for the Rays here and he has a 6.30 ERA in his first two starts this month and he has also allowed 3 homers in his last 10 innings on the mound. Jonathan Loaisiga gets the start for the Yankees and he makes the big jump all the way from AA ball. Having never even pitched at the AAA level and having compiled a rather unimpressive 4.32 ERA (and .286 BAA) in his 6 AA starts (all this season) I look for him to struggle here with major league hitters. The over is 6-3 in Rays road games where their money line is in a range of +125 to +175 and the over is 10-6 in New York's games at home in which their money line is in a range of -125 to -175. Both lineups come alive here given the pitching match-up for this one. 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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06-15-18 | Reds v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams have been trending over recently. The Reds are 9-3 to the over their last 12 games and the Pirates are 3-0 to the over their last 3 games. Great value being offered here with a manageable low total in this one considering a struggling Matt Harvey takes to the mound for the Reds. The Cincinnati right-hander has a 7.16 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, Harvey has a 6.44 ERA in road starts this season and the over is 4-2 in those games. The Pirates Chad Kuhl has received great run support in his home starts this season and the over is 5-1 in those 6 outings. Harvey enters this start having allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts overall. Kuhl enters this start having allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts versus the Reds. Cincinnati was off yesterday but had averaged 5.5 runs per game in their 8 prior games. Pittsburgh was also off yesterday but had averaged 5.5 runs per game their last 8 games as well. The Reds are a long-term 19-10 to the over when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. Cincy is also 40-21 to the over in June games the past 3 seasons combined. The Pirates are 19-10 to the over this season when off of a win. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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06-14-18 | Rays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:05 ET - With yesterday's 5-4 home loss, Yankees games have now stayed under the total in 8 straight games. Hence the title of this play as it most certainly is a contrarian play. As long-time followers know, I love fading the masses and this one definitely falls into that category. This total already dropped from a 9 to an 8.5 and that is because of the Yankees "under streak" as well as the fact that the Rays Blake Snell is having a great season. The key to the value here is that this is a match-up issue for Snell. The Tampa Bay southpaw has allowed 9 earned runs in just 4 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts at Yankee Stadium. Snell will have his hands full here with a Yankees lineup that is fired up off of a loss last night. The over is 13-5 this season in Yanks games when they are off of a loss. Also, the over is 18-11 in Yankees games versus teams with a losing record this season. Tampa Bay is 6-1 to the over in Thursday games this season. The Rays are 6-2 to the over as a road dog in a range of +125 to +175 this season. The Yankees are starting Domingo German in this one and he is still winless in his 6 starts this season and has compiled a 6.00 ERA in those outings. This is a contrarian play all the way but it is precisely the type of play that hits more often than not and I love the additional value here with the line move on the total. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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06-14-18 | Giants v. Marlins OVER 8 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants @ 12:10 ET - The Marlins Daniel Straily took a line drive to the rib cage in his last start. That doesn't exactly help the psyche of a pitcher! The Miami right-hander was already struggling this season as it was. The Giants have lost each of Straily's last 3 starts and he has a 5.93 ERA in those outings. Also, in his 3 home starts this season he has a 7.10 ERA. All 3 of those starts resulted in an over and I expect another one here. The total dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 early this morning and that is giving us excellent line value here. The Giants Dereck Rodriguez is a young right-hander making just his 3rd MLB start. Prior to this season he had never pitched above the AA level of the minors and that inexperience was showing as he struggled badly at Washington in his first road start at the MLB level. Look for him to again struggle on the road here. The Giants have scored 4 runs or more in 8 of their 12 games this month. The Marlins have scored 4 or more runs in 6 of their last 9 games. Each team getting to 4 runs here guarantees us no less than a final totaling 9 runs and I love the value with the low total in this one. 8* OVER the total in Miami |
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06-13-18 | Angels v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:10 ET - The Mariners won again yesterday with another big day at the plate and they are now 10-2 their last 12 games. Seattle has averaged 4.7 runs and 9.3 hits per game their last 13 games! The Angels have not been hitting as well but they are ranked 10th out of 30 in the majors for slugging percentage versus southpaws. The last time they faced Marco Gonzales they got to him for 4 earned runs on 9 hits in 6 innings. The over is 6-1-1 in the Mariners last 8 games. Garret Richards gets the start for the Angels here and he has struggled in day games this season with an 8.59 ERA and a 2.45 WHIP in his two starts. The way the Mariners are hitting, look for him to have an outing more like the two starts against the M's prior to the May outing this season. Not only is this a rather quick 2nd look for Seattle, Richards had allowed 7 earned runs in 12 innings (8 walks) in his 2 starts versus the Mariners that preceded that May outing. Take advantage of the low total here. The value is why this one earns top play status. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
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06-13-18 | Cubs v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs @ 2:10 ET - The Cubs got shutout last night and I expect them to respond big this afternoon. The over is 36-24 in Chicago's Wednesday games in recent seasons and the Brewers Jhoulys Chacin has a 6.39 ERA in his last two starts versus National League foes. The Cubs Mike Montgomery has been successful in his first 3 starts this season but Milwaukee has proven to be a nemesis for him in recent meetings. He has faced them twice in the past 11 months and he was rocked both times. Montgomery compiled a 22.85 ERA versus the Brewers last season and he'll have his hands full again here. Milwaukee has won 3 of their last 5 games and has averaged 6.6 runs per game during this 5-game stretch. The Cubs had scored 5 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 road games before being shutout yesterday. In other words, a bounce back is likely here. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in Montgomery's 5 career starts versus the Cubs. The over is 3-0 the last 3 times the Brewers faced a southpaw starter and another one flying over appears likely here given the lefty's long-term struggles versus this lineup. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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06-12-18 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - Both these teams have been trending under lately but that has resulted in added value here. The total opened up at a 10 but dropped to a 9.5 even though this game has the makings of a slugfest. Chicago's Jame Shields recently complained about being tired of the rebuild with the White Sox. That was after the game where he allowed 3 solo homers. So how did he follow up that outing? Shields allowed 3 homers AGAIN in his very next start and it was a much uglier outing as he allowed 7 earned runs in 6 inning of work. That is 6 homers allowed in 2 starts for Shields and he is now 12-33 since the start of the 2016 season and he has compiled a 5.46 ERA during this 3-year stretch. With the White Sox he has allowed 68 homers in 56 starts! He'll be opposed by the Indians Adam Plutko in this one. Though he has had good numbers at the minor league level it has yet to translate to success in the bigs. Plutko was called up from AAA to make this start and the bad news for him is that his most recent MLB start was also against the White Sox. That means Chicago is getting a rather quick "second look" at him and they got to him for 5 earned runs in 5 innings the first time they faced him. Also. the Indians bullpen is dead last in the majors based on ERA while the ChiSox bullpen also ranks very low based on BAA as opponents are hitting .260 versus their relievers. Another reason to expect the slugfest today is Plutko has allowed 5 homers in his 3 MLB starts! 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox |
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06-12-18 | Nationals v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - CC Sabathia is off of a solid outing although he did allow 2 homers in that start. However, the key to the value here is that in his 4 prior starts he gave up 20 runs (including 16 earned runs) over a span of just 18 and 1/3 innings. The Yankees lefty certainly hasn't been sharp and now he faces a quality Nationals lineup in this one. The over is 4-2 in Sabathia's 6 home starts this season. Washington's Tanner Roark has solid numbers this season but his style of pitching is precisely the style that could get him into trouble against a slugging lineup like the Yankees have. In his last 3 appearances (2 starts) he has a 5.54 ERA. The Yanks are off of a rare shutout loss Sunday night versus the Mets and they are 13-4 to the over this season when off of a loss. New York is also 9-4 to the over in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Yankees are 10-3 to the over as a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175 this season. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 this season when the Nationals are playing after an off day. Like the Yankees, the Nats are also off of a 2-0 shutout loss Sunday. Washington had previously scored an average of 7.7 runs and 11.3 hits per game in their 3 prior games. The Yankees are still 9-2 their last 11 games and have averaged 5.3 runs per game their last 9 victories. You can see why I am expecting this one to get to double digits in runs scored! 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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06-11-18 | Padres v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres @ 8:15 ET - This total dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 and that is adding some additional value here. The Padres game stayed under the total yesterday but their 3-1 win gave them the series win. That was the 4th straight series win for San Diego and, as a result, this is a team playing with a lot of confidence right now. The Padres have won 9 of their last 12 games. Also, the over is 9-4 their last 13 games as San Diego has averaged 5 runs per game their last dozen games. Jordan Lyles gets the start for the Padres here and he has struggled in both of his road starts this season. He has been roughed up in his last 4 starts overall as Lyles has compiled a 7.89 ERA in those outings. As you would expect with numbers like this, the over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts. The Cardinals game stayed just under the closing number yesterday but the over was 4-1 in their 5 prior games. The Cards did pound out 11 hits yesterday and they're averaging 9.5 hits per game their last 6 games. St Louis will have Jack Flaherty on the mound for this one and he is winless with a 4.21 ERA (and a .294 BAA) in his night starts this season. He also was winless with a 6.06 ERA (and .290 BAA) in night action last season so this is a long-term trend. Flaherty enters this start having been roughed up in each of his last two outings and both of those starts were at home too! 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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06-11-18 | Giants v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants @ 7:10 ET - The Giants Madison Bumgarner is still trying to get back to 100% and this will be just his 2nd start. Though he allowed only 2 earned runs in his first start back he did have only 3 strikeouts plus allowed 8 hits in his 6 innings of work. The southpaw faces a Marlins team that hasn't been hitting great overall on the season but had averaged a respectable 9 hits per game in their dozen games prior to Sunday's action. Miami has averaged 5 runs per game their last 6 games even after a poor performance at the plate Sunday. They should bounce back against Bumgarner as he continues to try to work back into top form. We also can expect big runs from the Giants offense here. Wei-Yin Chen has given up 6 earned runs in 6 innings spanning his last two starts. The fact Chen hasn't been able to work deep into starts is also likely to be a major issue here because the Miami bullpen ranks deadlast in the National League with a 5.34 ERA on the season! Chen and the relievers will be exposed again here as they take on a Giants team playing with a lot of confidence right now. San Francisco has suddenly gotten hot and they've won 8 of their last 10 games. The Giants have averaged 5 runs per game their last dozen games and 10.3 hits per game in these 12 contests. San Francisco had 3 straight overs before yesterday's low-scoring shutout win. Also, the Giants are 15-9 to the over this season against left-handed starters. The Marlins were 8-4 to the over their last dozen games prior to yesterday's low-scoring loss. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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06-11-18 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Monday 8* OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Steven Wright looked great against Detroit in his first start of this season. However, last week's effort doesn't mean he is just going to come out and mow every team down in every start. That said, the Orioles have a number of hitters in their lineup whom have enjoyed success against the knuckle-balling right-hander. Wright has allowed 12 earned runs on 17 hits (including SIX homers) in the FIVE innings spanning his last two starts versus Baltimore. In other words, tonight's start is unlikely to go well for him. As for the Orioles Dylan Bundy, the Red Sox will be seeing him for the 3rd time already this season and the righty gave up 3 homers in 6 innings versus Boston two weeks ago. We're getting line value here because both of these lineups have recently slumped. The value is in the fact that this is pushing this total lower than it should be and the fact that this pitching match-up has a history of success for both lineups. Bundy, in home games this season, has a 4.78 ERA and has been hit at a .289 clip. Also, in night games this season, Bundy has struggled badly with a 1-6 record and 7.68 ERA. Opponents are hitting .329 against him under the lights. More of the same expected Monday night versus a Red Sox lineup in need of a breakout game. Look for the over to improve to a perfect 5-0 this season in Boston's Monday games. 8* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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06-10-18 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros @ 3:05 ET - Dallas Keuchel is known in recent seasons for pitching much better at home than on the road. That trend has held true versus the Rangers too as Keuchel has often shut them down at home but struggled on the road. Since the 2015 season, the Astros southpaw has a 4.71 ERA in starts at Globe Life Park in Arlington and Texas has hit well over .300 against him in those starts. Not only that, Keuchel enters this start in poor current form as he had a 6.75 ERA over his last 4 starts. He won't be the only lefty getting roughed up here as the Rangers hand the ball to Matt Moore. The Texas southpaw went winless in 5 May starts while compiling a 10.80 ERA. Moore than began this month by allowing 8 hits in 6 innings with only 2 strikeouts. He has given up 7 earned runs in 7 innings versus the Astros this season and the Astros have averaged scoring 5 runs per game in their last 13 games. The over was 6-1 in Houston's last 7 games before yesterday's game stayed under the total. The Rangers have averaged 4.6 runs per game in their last 5 games. Texas has gone 9-2 to the over in Moore's 11 starts this season and the Rangers over is 8-1 (89%) in his starts when they are an underdog. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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06-10-18 | White Sox v. Red Sox OVER 9 | 5-2 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:05 ET - The Red Sox and White Sox each entered this series on an under streak and the unders have continued with a total of only 7 runs scored in the first two games of this series. Look for this to change in a big way on Sunday. Chicago's Reynaldo Lopez is off of a strong start but he is winless in his 7 road starts this season and has a 4.86 ERA away from home. This is no fluke either as last season he had a 6.75 ERA in his 3 road starts. He'll be opposed by Boston's Rick Porcello in this one. The Red Sox right-hander has great numbers on the season but, keep in mind, he has been on the fade since early May. Porcello has a 5.56 ERA in his last 6 starts! Also, he has struggled badly in 3 of his last 4 starts versus the White Sox. It will be a hitter-friendly afternoon based on the weather in Boston this afternoon and Fenway Park is a hitter-friendly park. The over is 5-0-1 in Porcello's last 6 starts and I look for another one here as the bats finally come alive in the finale of this 3-game set. 8* OVER the total in Boston |
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06-09-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:15 ET - With last night's game flying over the total, Colorado is now on a 9-0 run to the over their last 9 games. Yes, this total is a big one and that is what will make many uncomfortable with the over here but these are the kind of situations that win. Where others fear to tread is often where you find the best path to tread in your quest for a winning ticket. The Rockies Chad Bettis has a 7.24 ERA at Coors Field in his 5 starts there this season. The Colorado right-hander might rather be facing a team other than the Diamondbacks too! In his 10 games (7 starts) versus Arizona in his career he has an 8.44 ERA. The good news for Bettis and Rockies fans alike is the fact that he should get plenty of run support in this match-up. That is because the Colorado lineup will be "teeing off" against Matt Koch. It will be the first-ever start at hitter-friendly Coors Field for the inexperienced 27-year old right-hander. First starts at Coors Field rarely go well for young (or inexperienced MLB pitchers) and I expect Koch will receive a rough introduction here on a hot day at Coors Field with very dry air and an early start (5:15 PM local time) meaning the ball should carry very well here with temperatures still in the 90s at first pitch here and ultra dry air. Koch is off of his best start this season but he faced a Miami team that is struggling badly. In his 3 prior starts the Diamondbacks right-hander gave up 14 earned runs on 23 hits in 14 and 2/3 innings! Arizona has averaged 6.1 runs per game in their last 10 games. Colorado has averaged 6.3 runs per game in their last 13 games. The over is 14-4 this season in Diamondbacks games where Arizona's money line ranges from -125 to +125. Look for another one here! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-09-18 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday's game totaled 13 runs and the over is now a perfect 8-0 in the Reds last 8 games. Yes, the Cardinals Michael Wacha had a no-hitter going until the 9th inning of his most recent start but pitchers often fall well short in their next start after a stellar outing like that. Yes, the Reds Luis Castillo has good stuff but the full-season numbers don't lie and he has a 5.64 ERA on the year and the over is 8-4-1 in his 13 starts YTD. Castillo gave up 7 hits and walked 4 in just 5 innings when he faced the Cards earlier this season. Also, Wacha will be giving the Reds a 3rd look at him as he has already had 2 starts versus Cincinnati this season. With that said, it could be a tough one too for Wacha as Cincy is really swinging the bats well right now. Cincinnati has averaged 5.1 runs per game their last 8 games but, even more impressive than that is the fact they've averaged 11.2 hits per game their last dozen games! The Cardinals have scored at least 6 runs in 3 of their last 4 road games versus a right-handed starter. The Reds are 78-48 to the over in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is now on a 39-18 in Reds June games after another high-scoring one last night. Look for another one this afternoon as it will be a hot one at Great American Ball Park and the ball carries particularly well in day games at this ball park. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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06-09-18 | Giants v. Nationals OVER 8 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants @ 12:05 ET - The Giants are hot right now and, as a result, have plenty of confidence at the plate. With their win last night, San Francisco has won 7 of their last 8 games and the Giants have averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game their last 5 games. Most, if not all, of their lineup today will be filled with right-handed hitters. They've hit lefties well this season as they rank 9th out of 30 teams for batting average versus southpaws. The Giants have averaged 10.6 hits per game their last dozen games. They already saw Gio Gonzalez earlier this season and they have got to him for 6 earned runs on 12 hits and 6 walks in their last 11 and 1/3 innings against him. The way the Giants are swinging the bats right now I do expect success for them at the plate in this one but the Nationals should answer San Francisco run for run. The Giants are throwing rookie right-hander Dereck Rodriguez in this one. Yes he is off a great outing in his first ever MLB start but he faced the Phillies whom are slumping badly at the plate. This is a pitcher who had never pitched above the AA level of the minors until this season. Rodriguez allowed 11 homers in his 9 AAA starts this season and was hit at a .250 clip this season with Sacramento in the Pacific Coast League. In other words, he is not dominant and the Nationals have a strong lineup that will be ready to respond off of yesterday's 9-5 loss. The over is 14-9 in San Francisco's games versus left-handed starters this season and the over is 7-4 in Giants Saturday games. 8* OVER the total in Washington |
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06-08-18 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:10 ET - Hitter friendly park and a match-up of two pitchers likely to struggle. Don't be fooled by the big total posted on this one. It is justified fully. The Reds Matt Harvey enjoyed a brief resurgence when he first came over to the Reds from the Mets. However, he has quickly faded in Cincinnati. With yesterday's 7-5 Reds win over the Rockies, the over is now 7-0 in Cincinnati's last 7 games. As for Harvey, he had a good start versus Pittsburgh but, in his other 3 starts since mid-May, he has allowed 11 earned runs on 22 hits in just 15 innings of work. Luke Weaver gets the start for St Louis here and he is off of a solid start. However, he previously had allowed 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his 8 prior starts. He'll be facing a Reds lineup that is much more confident when at home. As for the Cardinals lineup, they should have no trouble with the offerings of the very inconsistent Harvey. The Cards game stayed under the total yesterday but that was with a solid Miles Mikolas on the mound. Today their hurler, Weaver, gives up plenty but the Cards also strike for plenty against Harvey. The result should be a back and forth slugfest at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. The weather will be very warm and the ball should carry well, as per usual, in Cincinnati. Look for the Reds OVER to make it 8 in a row. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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06-07-18 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - The Blue Jays went 13 innings without scoring yesterday as they lost 3-0 to the Yankees. That was certainly an "ugly" over play for me but I am coming right back with it today. The Jays are happy that the Yankees have left down and will welcome a struggling Orioles team to Toronto tonight. The over is 11-6 this season in Blue Jays games versus teams with a losing record this season. Also, the over is 3-1-1 this season when Toronto is a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175. Only 2 of the Jays 8 Thursday games so far this season have stayed under the total. The Orioles are also off of a pitchers duel yesterday (a free pick winner for me with the under) as they beat the Mets 1-0 Wednesday afternoon. However, Baltimore is 9-4 to the over this season in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the Orioles David Hess certainly has respectable numbers on the season but he doesn't get a lot of strikeouts and he was roughed up in a road start at Boston. This will be just the 3rd road start for the rookie right-hander and I expect another ugly one like he had at Fenway Park. As for his counterpart tonight, lefty Jaime Garcia gets the start for the Blue Jays. He has struggled badly this season, particularly against right-handed hitters and the Orioles are loaded on that side of the plate. Also, he has a 6.47 ERA on the season including an ugly 8.02 ERA in his last 3 starts. After all those zeroes for inning after inning for each of these two teams' games yesterday, I will go contrarian today and look for a ton of runs as that is so often what happens after game like that. This is particularly true when the pitching match-up is like this one. Hess is still an unproven rookie and Garcia is "proven" but he is proven in this way: he struggles more often than not! 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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06-07-18 | Dodgers v. Pirates OVER 8 | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 12:35 ET - This will be the first start for the Dodgers Dennis Santana at the MLB level. His only other appearance at the MLB level was last week at Colorado and he actually got the win in that game but certainly didn't earn it. Santana allowed 5 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work. Although that outing was at Coors Field and that is a tough place to pitch, the fact is that Santana began this season in the minors at the AA level. In his entire baseball career he has only made two starts above the AA level. Santana made two starts with AAA Oklahoma City this season. In other words, he is jumping from the AA level to the MLB level and I don't expect this to go well against a Pirates team that exploded for double digits in runs in yesterday's wild 11-9 win. The Dodgers should also have a big day at the plate as they have enjoyed success versus Pirates right-hander Jameson Taillon. In his two career starts versus the Dodgers, Taillon has allowed 9 earned runs in 9 innings of work. Los Angeles has gotten hot at the plate lately as a road trip to Colorado served as a confidence booster. The Dodgers have averaged 9.4 runs per game their last 5 games. Taillon is off of a strong start but previously allowed 9 earned runs in 12 and 1/3 innings in his two prior starts. The Dodgers have had just 2 unders in their last 9 games. LA is 6-3 to the over in road games with a money line between -125 and +125 this season. Also, the Dodgers are 27-13 to the over in games this season against a right-handed starter. The Pirates are 12-6 to the over in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. Look for another one here. 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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06-06-18 | Rockies v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:10 ET - The under is 2-0 in Sal Romano's 2 starts versus the Rockies and 2-1 in Jon Gray's 3 starts versus the Reds but I am going contrarian here with the over. The fact is that both of these pitchers are in poor current form and that is resulting in great line value here with the low total posted on this game. Romano has an ugly 11.21 ERA in his last 4 starts. Gray has an ugly 9.33 ERA in his last 4 starts. With yesterday's game totaling 15 runs, Cincinnati is now on a 5-0 run to the over and Colorado is on a 6-0 run to the over. The Rockies have averaged 6.7 runs per game in their last 10 games. The Reds have averaged 5.5 runs per game in their last 4 home games. The ball is known for carrying well at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The over is a long-term 77-48 in Reds game with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. June games for Cincy are now 36-18 to the over the past 2+ seasons. Only 1 of Gray's 5 road starts this season have resulted in an under. The over is 4-2 in Romano's 6 home starts this season. Also, these guys just faced other at Coors Field and each of them gave up at least 4 earned runs in that one. I expect more of the same here based on the way these two pitchers are currently throwing. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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06-06-18 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - Even though there were not a lot of hits in yesterday's game (particularly from the Blue Jays) the teams did combine for 4 homers as each team hit a pair of long balls. There should be a lot more of that coming Wednesday with this pitching match-up. The Blue Jays Sam Gaviglio has allowed a pair of homers in each of his last two starts and now faces the Bronx Bombers. The Yankees Sonny Gray has allowed a round-tripper in each of his last two starts and also has struggled versus Toronto. In his last two starts versus the Blue Jays, Gray has given up 12 hits plus walked 7 as he has allowed 6 earned runs in just 7 and 1/3 innings. None of Gaviglio's 3 starts have resulted in an under and only 3 of Gray's 11 starts this season have stayed under the total. Despite yesterday's game staying just under the total, the over is still 6-2 in the Jays last 8 games and that was just the 4th under in the Yankees last 11 road games. Toronto has played 35 games versus a right-handed starter this season and only 12 stayed under the total. The Yankees are 18-7 to the over this season in their games against teams with a losing record. Look for another one here as the homers keep flying at the Rogers Centre. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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06-06-18 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamonbacks @ 3:45 ET - This is a contrarian play because each of these starting pitchers have produced good numbers recently and that has been a driving force behind the total dropping from an 8 to a 7.5 this morning. Clay Buchholz has great numbers in his 3 starts at the MLB level since he signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks early last month. However, 2 of the 3 starts came against the Marlins and Mets and both of those clubs are currently struggling at the plate. As for the Giants Chris Stratton, he is off of his best start of the season and that certainly adds to the value here. Keep in mind, previous to that outing he had allowed 24 earned runs in the 27 innings for an 8.00 ERA spanning his 6 prior starts. The over was 5-0 in the right-handers 5 starts prior to back to back unders. Arizona is 12-5 to the over this season in road games where their money line ranges from +125 to -125. San Francisco is 5-2 to the over this season as a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175. The Diamondbacks are 6-3 to the over in Wednesday games this season and the Giants are 7-2 to the over on Wednesdays. Arizona entered this series having averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their 6 prior games. The Giants were averaging scoring 6 runs per game in their 5 games prior to being held to just 2 runs yesterday. This is a contrarian play but I love spots like this where there is big value because of recent results not being commensurate with the long-term reality of starting pitchers. Also, though it will be a typical cool afternoon by the bay, the wind will be blowing out to center field at a good clip and the ball does carry better in day games at AT & T Park. 8* OVER the total in San Francisco |
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06-05-18 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 10 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees are off of a double header yesterday so some will shy away from having anything to do with them here. That is where the contrarian aspect to this comes in. That's because I fully expect a very focused effort from the Yankees at the plate in this one after they lost the 2nd game of yesterday's twin-bill by a score of 4-2. The Yankees had won 5 straight games and averaged scoring 6 runs per game before that loss last night. Tuesday they'll take advantage of facing a struggling Marco Estrada. The Blue Jays right-hander hasn't won a game since April 20th. Also, in his last 4 starts he has taken the loss in all 4 while compiling an ugly 6.53 ERA. Going even further back, note that Estrada has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 7 of his last 9 starts. The good news for Blue Jays fans is that they also should enjoy a lot of success at the plate in this one. Toronto will take advantage of facing a struggling CC Sabathia. The Yankees left-hander has given up 20 runs (16 earned) in his last 18 and 1/3 innings! In his last 3 starts Sabathia has walked 9 in only 14 and 1/3 innings of work. The lefty has only gone more than 5 innings 3 times in his 10 starts. The over is 18-6 this season in Yankees games versus teams with a losing record. Also, the over is 24-13 in Yanks games versus a right-handed starter. This will be the 30th game this season in which the Blue Jays have faced a team with a winning record and so far ONLY 10 of those games have resulted in an under. Look for a slugfest north of the border. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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06-04-18 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 106 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 10:10 ET - Both teams are off of series sweeps as the Diamondbacks faced the miserable Marlins and the Giants faced the slumping Phillies. That said, there is great value here because we have a low total to work with and yet both of these lineups are loaded with confidence right now. Arizona had been slumping badly at the plate but they've now won 5 of their last 6 games and have averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this solid stretch. The Giants have won 4 straight and have averaged a respectable 4.5 runs per game and a solid 10.3 hits per game in their last 8 games. San Francisco should enjoy success against Zack Godley here. The Giants will be getting their 2nd look at him this season. Though Godley was successful in the first meeting, he was hit hard by San Francisco when he faced them in late September. Considering he has a 5.81 ERA in road starts this season he is unlikely to again enjoy success at AT & T Park here. The Diamondbacks also should have a big day at the plate here as they face lefty Derek Holland. Arizona has a .469 slugging percentage versus southpaw pitchers this season and that ranks them #1 out of all 30 MLB teams! Holland is 1-5 with a 5.93 ERA in his 8 night starts this season. This is no fluke either as the 3 prior years he went a combined 10-18 with a 6.40 ERA and a .303 BAA in evening outings. He was matched up with Godley in that prior start which did stay under the total but the rematch, as you can see per the above, is likely to turn out much different. Neither pitcher is currently in good form. The over is 11-4 this season when Arizona is on the road and the money line ranges from +125 to -125. Look for another one here as both starters struggle and both lineups get revenge in the rematch from April 9th. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco |
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06-03-18 | A's v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #921 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Oakland A's @ 2:15 ET - I was handed a tough push with this match-up yesterday but won't hesitate to come right back with the over today. Jakob Junis gets the start for the Royals and the A's did face him in August so this won't be their first look at him. Also, the KC right-hander gave up 6 hits and 4 walks in 6 innings in his most recent home start plus allowed 7 hits in 5 and 1/3 innings in his prior start at Kauffman Stadium. Oakland has averaged 9 runs per game in their last 3 games so they've got plenty of confidence at the plate right now. The Athletics issue however will be their starting pitcher. Even though the Royals have never faced Daniel Gossett it will prove not to matter because he is struggling. Gossett is now 4-14 with a 6.10 ERA and a .305 BAA in his 22 MLB starts. Though he has pitched well at the AAA level, like so many other hurlers before him, he is finding out just how tough it is to make the jump from the minors to the majors. The A's have played 15 road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season and, so far, only 3 (20%) have resulted in an under! There have been 3 pushes and the other dozen games went 9-3 (75%) to the over and this match-up is conducive to yet another one flying over the total. The Royals have now scored 5 runs or more in 7 of their last 11 games. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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06-03-18 | Nationals v. Braves OVER 9 | 2-4 | Loss | -119 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals @ 1:35 ET - Yesterday's 14-inning affair certainly didn't do any favors for either team's bullpen. That said, although Saturday's match-up did stay under the total, we've got great value with the over in Sunday's match-up. Both starting pitchers could get knocked out early and the bullpens for these teams burned up a lot of innings yesterday. I know the Nationals Jeremy Hellickson has been solid this season but he has only gone more than 5 and 2/3 innings in 1 of his 8 starts this year. Also, the Braves .485 slugging percentage in day games is #1 in the majors! As for Atlanta starter Anibal Sanchez, his return from the disabled list was not encouraging. He gave up 4 earned runs in just 4 innings and that was versus a Mets team that has struggled at the plate this season. Sanchez now faces a Nationals team that got hot in May and their .439 slugging percentage in the just completed month was 8th out of all 30 teams. They got to Sanchez for 4 earned runs in 6 innings in their most recent match-up with him. The over improves to 7-3 in Washington's Sunday games this season on a hot afternoon at SunTrust Park with the wind blowing out to left. 8* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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06-02-18 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 12-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:15 ET - This total moved down from an 11 to a 10.5 which means we just need 5 runs from each team and we've got a guaranteed winner. Of course that's because the game can't end with anything less than a 6-5 once we're knotted at 5 apiece. Why would I expect each team to get to 5 runs here? Well the Rockies have averaged nearly 7 runs per game so far on this homestand and only 1 of the 7 games thusfar has seen Colorado score less than 5 runs. As for the Dodgers, their bats are starting to heat up and they've scored at least 5 runs in 5 of their last 7 games. We're getting value because Los Angeles rookie Walker Buehler is having a great season and German Marquez is off of back to back solid outings for the Rockies. The key here is to dig a little deeper though and there is much more "under the surface" of this one. Buehler has made only 2 true road starts as the 3rd one was really a neutral site game in Mexico. That said, note that he allowed 13 hits in 10 innings spanning the two true road starts and those were at Miami and San Francisco. Neither the Marlins or Giants are nearly as imposing (not even close) as the Rockies at Coors Field. This is such a hitter friendly venue and tends to be very tough on rookie hurlers. It also helps the Colorado lineup that they just saw Buehler less than 2 weeks ago in LA. As for Marquez, he was great against Los Angeles in that same outing Buehler pitched in 2 weeks ago but that was at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. However, now Marquez is back home and even after a RARE strong home start (versus a horrible Reds team I might add), he still has an ugly 7.54 ERA and 1.99 WHIP in home starts this season. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 road games for Los Angeles and 3-0 in Colorado's last 3 home games. Also, the over is 24-12 in LA's games versus right-handed starters this season and I look for the over to improve to 8-4 in Dodgers Saturday games this season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-02-18 | Blue Jays v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 4:10 ET - This total opened up at a 9 and, as expected, markets are jumping on the under and that has this total down to an 8.5 and we might even see a few spots end up at an 8 on this one. I will gladly fade the masses here. The Tigers pen has performed surprisingly well the past two days and the Blue Jays pen was called into play in the 2nd inning yesterday and had an unusually strong performance. Toronto and Detroit both are near the bottom of the majors for batting average allowed by relievers as both bullpens are allowing .262 BAA on the season. The Tigers bullpen has a 4.40 ERA which is better than only 2 other American League teams. The starters in this match-up are J.A. Happ and Matthew Boyd. I know Happ has good numbers this season and of late. However, in his last visit to Comerica Park he gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings. Happ will be dealing with a confident Tigers lineup as Detroit is on a 7-2 run and has averaged 5 runs and 10 hits per game during this solid run. As for Tigers starter Boyd, the Blue Jays lineup (just like the Detroit lineup) is facing a left-handed starter for the 3rd straight game. This type of repetition tends to favor the hitters. The Jays slugging percentage in day games this season is .424 which is 9th out of all 30 teams. Boyd's career began with the Toronto organization and sometimes pitchers try to "overdo it" when facing their former team. He has walked 10 plus allowed 4 homers in his 3 starts spanning just 16 and 1/3 innings versus the Blue Jays. So the Jays will surely "get theirs" this afternoon and one final note about the Tigers - they are hitting .279 versus lefties this season and that ranks them #1 in the American League! Happ will have his hands full with this confident lineup today and none of his four road starts have resulted in an under this season. The over is 16-9 in Toronto's road games this season and 10-6 in Tigers games versus left-handed starters. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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06-02-18 | A's v. Royals OVER 9 | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Oakland A's @ 2:15 ET - After getting drilled 16-0 yesterday on their home field, there is no doubt the Royals will be ready to go here. They certainly know plenty about the A's Trevor Cahilll too since he did spend time with the organization last year. Though Cahill has enjoyed a resurgence this season as he returned to his long-time team in Oakland, he does have a 5.06 ERA on the road so far this year and Kauffman Stadium is certainly not high on his list of favorite venues! Kansas City, before getting shut out yesterday, had scored 5.3 runs per game in their prior 9 games. So, although I fully expect the Royals lineup to bounce back today, the issue will again be their pitching. Their bullpen has a 5.50 ERA and .280 BAA this season to rank among the worst pens in the majors. Royals relievers could be called upon early here too because starter Jason Hammel is likely to struggle. Yes he is off of a good start but that came against a Rangers team that has been struggling at the plate for much of the season. The A's .424 slugging percentage versus right-handed pitchers ranks them 6th in the majors out of all 30 teams. Also, Oakland got to Hammel for 8 earned runs in his 2 starts against them last season and the outings totaled less than 11 innings. The over is 9-3 this season in A's road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 5-1 in the Royals last 6 home games. Look for another one here in KC on a warm afternoon. 8* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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06-01-18 | Cubs v. Mets OVER 9 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Friday 8* OVER the total in New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - The Mets were held to just 1 run in yesterday's loss but previously had averaged 5.3 runs per game their last 8 games. New York averaged 10.4 hits per game too during this 8-game stretch. The Cubs remained hot at the plate with 5 runs on 11 hits in yesterday's win at Citi Field. Chicago has averaged 5.6 runs per game their last 7 games and 11.8 hits per game their last 5 games. The Cubs should have no problems with the offerings of Zach Wheeler in this one. The Mets right-hander is 0-4 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in his 4 home starts this season. Though he has been piling up strikeouts of late, Wheeler also has allowed 20 hits in the 16 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The Mets also should enjoy plenty of success at the plate as they take on a Cubs starter, Tyler Chatwood, who can't find the plate this season. The Chicago right-hander has issued 45 walks in his 48 1/3 innings spanning his 10 starts. Chatwood also has allowed 11 earned runs in just 5 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 2 starts versus the Mets. Wheeler gave up 8 earned runs in less than 2 innings of work when he most recently faced the Cubs (last June). The over is 7-2 in Chatwood's last 9 starts. The over is 5-2 in Wheeler's last 7 starts. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in New York Mets |
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06-01-18 | Blue Jays v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:10 ET - This total opened up at a 10 and has dropped to a 9 and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of the move! This game should fly over the total. The reason that Blaine Hardy has been a reliever for most of his MLB career is because he can't get right-handed batters out consistently. Seriously they have given him hell through his career so he has been better used as a "lefty specialist" out of the bullpen. Now, as a starter, certainly match-ups come up that will again "give him hell" and this is one of them. The Blue Jays lineup is loaded with right-handed bats and switch-hitters so Friday it is likely that he'll face almost all right-handed sticks and that is not going to turn out well for him. Yes, Hardy had a good start in his most recent outing but prior to that he was hit hard in each of his first two starts and the betting markets are over-reacting to one good start for him and one good start for Jaime Garcia. The Blue Jays southpaw pitched surprisingly well versus the Phillies but previously had walked 8 batters in less than 9 innings of work spanning his two prior starts. Even with the strong road start at Philadelphia, Garcia has a 7.30 ERA on the road this season and he'll struggle at Detroit this evening. The Tigers have averaged scoring 5 runs per game in their last 8 games. The over is 10-5 in Tigers games versus left-handed starters this season. The over is 7-3 in Toronto's road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Friday |
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05-31-18 | Angels v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Tigers @ 1:10 ET - As a general rule, I particularly like to look for overs in games where the home team is pitcher is likely to struggle. That's because home teams do tend to hit better in their own venue and so if the road team is also putting up big runs these are generally the types of games that get "crazy" and that is what I am expecting at Comerica Park early Thursday. The Angels are starting southpaw Andrew Heaney and he has had a strong campaign thus far. However, the Tigers do rank 5th in the majors (out of 30) with a .267 batting average versus left-handed pitching on the season. Very warm in Detroit this afternoon with the wind pushing toward the left-field corner so the ball should carry quite well off of right-handed bats in particular and there will be plenty of those in the lineup for both teams as the Tigers are also starting a southpaw here. Ryan Carpenter gets the call for Detroit and the 6'5 lefty has an 8.31 ERA in limited MLB action this season but also has struggled in the minors. His ERA this season with AAA Toledo is a 5.72 and the two prior seasons with AAA Albuquerque Carpenter compiled a 5.17 ERA. All those stats against minor league hitters keep in mind so it is no wonder he has struggled at the MLB level. Behind him is a Tigers bullpen whose 4.53 ERA ranks them 27th out of all 30 MLB teams. While the Angels pen ranks higher, the Los Angeles relievers do rank in the lower half of MLB for BAA as opponents have hit .254 against them on the season. Yesterday the Angels pen got roughed up but the game still managed to stay under the total. Today don't be surprised if both starters "give it up" and so too will the pens! In Angels road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season, only 4 of 12 have stayed under the total. The Tigers are 11-6 to the over this season against teams with a winning record and also 10-4 to the over when facing a left-handed starter! 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit |
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05-30-18 | Reds v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds @ 3:40 ET - The Reds bullpen has improved as the season has gone on but I still don't trust them. Couple that with the fact that Sal Romano is likely to get knocked out early in this one and you have a great situation for taking advantage of a low total and grabbing the over. Cincinnati's Romano is 0-3 with an insane 12.80 ERA and 2.69 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He won't be able to stop a Diamondbacks offense that has taken advantage of facing the Reds sub-par pitching by exploding for 17 runs in the first two games of this series. Yes, it is true that Arizona only had 4 hits yesterday (but 5 runs) and overall the Diamondbacks had been struggling at the plate for an extended stretch. However, facing Romano in a severe down cycle is going to allow Arizona to again explode at the plate. Keep in mind, they rocked him last July for 6 earned runs in just 4 innings of work. Unlike Romano, the Dbacks Pat Corbin has been very strong on the mound this season. However, he has allowed 22 hits in 15 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Reds. Cincinnati was averaging 5 runs per game in their 7 games prior to last night's game in which they managed only 2 runs. Look for the Reds (#5 in the NL for on base percentage versus left-handers) to bounce back against the southpaw Corbin. The over is 4-0-1 in Corbin's 5 starts this month! Each of Romano's last 3 starts have been games that have totaled at least 9 runs. The over is a long-term 35-23 in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs and I am calling for another one here on Wednesday afternoon. 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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05-29-18 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET - Yesterday's game was another game at Coors Field filled with wasted opportunities. The total did drop to an 11 at most spots yesterday but I did release at 11.5 and I lost the play. That said, I am coming right back with the same play today as all the "close calls" at Coors with the overs have led to value here. Yes, the Rockies have trended under of late and on the season. However, this total opened at an 11.5 and has already drop to 11 which, as we saw yesterday, is a key number with baseball totals. That's because a 5-5 game can't end with anything less than a 6-5 final and, once again today, I expect both teams to get at least 5 runs. The Giants just saw the Rockies Kyle Freeland and Colorado just saw San Francisco's Jeff Samardzija. Both hurlers fared well in their respective starts but that was at pitcher-friendly AT & T Park. Now, at hitter-friendly Coors Field (and having just seen these hurlers) the lineups hold a big edge tonight. The last time Freeland faced the Giants at Coors Field he allowed 5 runs (3 earned) on 7 hits in just 3 and 1/3 innings. The last time Samardzija faced the Rockies at Coors Field he allowed 8 earned runs on 11 hits in 6 innings of work. Both of these outings occurred within the past 12 months so it is not as if it is "ancient history" either. The over is 5-1-1 in Samardzija's 7 starts this season. The Rockies are one of the top hitting home teams in the majors and the Giants are among the top teams in the National League for batting average versus lefties. The over is 13-8 in San Franisco's games versus left-handed starters this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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05-29-18 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 9.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Chicago White Sox @ 6:10 ET - With yesterday's game flying over the total in the 5th inning and totaling 15 runs, the over is now an incredible 19-2 in Cleveland's last 21 home games. Included in this run is a perfect 6-0 to the over in the Indians last 6 at home. The White Sox have had just 1 under their last 6 games and their starting pitcher is likely to struggle this evening. Lucas Giolito is 3-5 with a 7.53 ERA on the season and only lasted 1 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start. He'll be opposed by Mike Clevinger in this one. The Indians right-hander has decent full-season numbers but his recent results indicate more struggles are likely this evening. Clevinger has given up 15 hits and walked 7 in the 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts. The over is 4-1 in his last 5 home starts. Also note that the Indians are 3-0 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. Look for another one here. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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05-28-18 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass Late - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 7:10 ET - 2013: 8.10 ERA, .345 BAA; 2014: 10.06 ERA, .367 BAA; 2015: 4.99 ERA, .302 BAA; 2016: 4.44 ERA, .291 BAA; 2017: 3.45 ERA, .256 BAA; 2018: 6.89 ERA, .317 BAA. Think it is tough to pitch at Coors Field? Just ask the Rockies Chad Bettis. Those stats above are his season by season numbers when pitching at Coors Field. I have gotten burned recently with overs involving Colorado but won with the Giants over yesterday and I am coming right back with the Rockies over today. San Francisco sends rookie southpaw Andrew Suarez to the mound for this one. This will be his 7th start of the season. None of those first 6 starts were at hitter-friendly Coors Field and yet Suarez checks in with a 1-4 record and 5.69 ERA in his rookie campaign. Even more concerning is the fact that he is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. Suarez is having trouble getting the proper movement on his pitches to fool major league hitters. Now, pitching in the thin air of Colorado, that task for the lefty becomes even more daunting! The Giants game yesterday "only" had 11 runs but 23 men were left on base in that game! The Rockies game yesterday had "just" 10 runs but the teams combined to go an ugly 3 for 13 with runners in scoring position and the Reds lined into a double play to end the game with the bases loaded in the top of the 9th inning. All 3 in the series with the Reds were "close calls" with Colorado's games not going over the total. Admittedly that series was not kind to me but with this pitching match-up Monday and with the way these two teams have swung the bats the last couple days, this evening's match-up should fly over the total. Neither starting pitcher has had an under in any of their last 3 starts. San Francisco is 7-3 to the over this season in road games with a money line between -125 and +125 this season. This is the Rockies 8th Monday game so far this season and so far only 2 have stayed under the total. This one won't stay under either! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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05-27-18 | Giants v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:05 ET - We had to wait for the total to come out on this one because of the game being played at Wrigley Field and it was worth the wait as the value here demands the Top Play rating. Amazingly, yesterday's game didn't go over the total despite the Giants scoring 5 runs. The Cubs bats should bounce back today and there is every reason to believe the Giants again push across at least 5 runs here. The San Francisco sticks will take on a struggling Tyler Chatwood. The Cubs right-hander has a 1.85 WHIP in his last 3 starts as walks have been a major issue. Too many free passes on a warm hitter-friendly evening at Wrigley Field will likely lead to trouble and Chatwood also has averaged just 4 and 1/3 innings per start his last 3 starts. The Giants also are sending a struggling hurler to the mound for this one. San Francisco left-hander Ty Blach gets the start and he is also averaging only about 4 innings per start his last 3 starts and he has a 7.11 ERA and 1.90 WHIP over these 3 outings. Neither of Blach's two career starts versus the Cubs have stayed under the total. Each of Chatwood's two starts where his team hosted the Giants last year went over the total. Also, the over is 4-1 in Chatwood's home starts this season and all signs point to another one here! 10* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game |
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05-27-18 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds @ 3:10 ET - Really brutal beats for "over players' in the first two games of this series. That said, don't let the even bigger number on Sunday's total scare you away. It is fully justified as the Rockies German Marquez is winless with a 10.34 ERA and 2.43 ERA in his 4 home starts this season! As for Cincinnati's Matt Harvey, he has enjoyed "new life" with the Reds but he did allow 3 earned runs on 7 hits in just 4 innings of work in his most recent road start as a Red. Also, he allowed 5 earned runs on 11 hits in less than 6 innings of work in his most recent start at hitter-friendly Coors Field. The good news for Cincinnati fans is that Harvey has his confidence back since coming over from the Mets as he needed a new environment. The bad news for Reds fans is that Coors Field is the worst possible place for a "fragile" pitcher to start. This is not a knock on Harvey overall but I am merely stating that things are likely to unravel quickly for him here given his past. This should quickly turn into a slugfest based on warm afternoon conditions, very dry air, and two pitchers destined to struggle. Look for the over to improve to 6-3 in Reds Sunday games and 4-1 in Harvey's road starts as the home struggles for Marquez continue as well. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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05-27-18 | Orioles v. Rays OVER 7.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 1:10 ET - This total opened up at an 8.5 and has dropped as low as a 7.5 as of about 4 hours before game time. The Rays continue to use these "bullpen days" and they've survived so far but it is going to catch up with them eventually. You look at how many innings the starters have produced recently and there have been very few lengthy starts. I look for it to catch up to Tampa Bay today as Sergio Romo gets the "start" (hard to even call it that) and he has averaged just 1 inning in his 3 starts thus far. The Orioles hitters will take advantage of a 3rd straight "bullpen day" for TB. As for the Rays lineup, they should enjoy success against Kevin Gausman. The Baltimore right-hander has been piling up strikeouts but he has been giving up plenty of hits too and that includes those coming off of the bats of the Rays. Looking at Gausman's last 3 starts (including one versus Tampa), he has allowed 28 hits in 18 and 1/3 innings. I am well aware of the fact that these teams have been trending under of late but this particular match-up is absolutely calling for an over. 8* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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