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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-29-17 | Royals v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 8* OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals @ 1:10 ET - Jake Junis gets the start for the Royals and he is 1-1 with a 5.64 ERA in his June starts and have been hit at a .304 clip for the month. Michael Fullmer gets the start for the Tigers and he his off of a fantastic outing at San Diego. However, in his three prior starts (all at home) the Detroit right-hander got roughed up for 13 earned runs on 22 hits in 18 innings of work. Also, Fullmer has walked 4 batters in each of his last two starts (including the strong effort versus the Padres). Junis has definitely had some command issues as he has hit 4 batters in his last 2 starts. On the season, as a starter, Junis has a 5.33 ERA and has been hit at a .300 clip. With yesterday's 8-2 Royals win going over the total, the over is now 14-6-1 (70%) in Kansas City's last 21 games. The over is 8-2 in Tigers Thursday games this season and also 17-9 in their day games! With yesterday's game going over the total, Detroit is now 18-10 to the over in divisional games this season. Look for the over to improve to 4-1-1 in the 6 starts that Junis has made this season while Fullmer's recent penchant for giving up big hits at home continues against a Royals lineup that has a slugging percentage of .468 in June. The Tigers are just above them with a .472 slugging percentage in June. That has these teams ranked 6th and 7th in the majors for the month and the "slugging" continues on Thursday. 8* OVER the total in Detroit |
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06-28-17 | A's v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Oakland Athletics @ 8:10 ET - Jesse Hahn just got rocked by the Astros in Oakland on Thursday and now has to face them again. The results are unlikely to be good considering Houston had no problem with his offerings last week as Hahn gave up 10 runs (9 earned) in just 2 innings of work. The situation is similar for David Paulino as he opposed Hahn on that day and was roughed up for 3 earned runs on 7 hits and 2 walks in just 5 and 1/3 innings. Paulino was fortunate the damage wasn't worse in a rather unimpressive outing. In fact, Paulino has a 5.04 ERA in his 5 starts this season and the over is 4-1 in those 5 games. He's dealing with a very confident A's team here as they've won 4 straight games and have averaged 7 runs and 12 hits per game in their last 3 games. As for the Astros lineup, they've certainly had plenty of confidence at the plate of late as well. Houston has averaged 6.1 runs and 10.9 hits per game in going 7-3 in their last 10 games. The over is 24-12 in A's games against teams with a winning record this season. The over is 7-4 in Houston's Wednesday games this season. The over is 7-3 this season in Astros games versus the A's and that includes 3-1 when they are the host. Look for another slugfest in this match-up tonight! 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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06-28-17 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 8* OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies @ 3:45 ET - With last night's game going 14 innings, both teams used up plenty of bullpen. That certainly could prove to be an issue for this afternoon's game because there is a decent probability that each of these starters will get roughed up. The Rockies send Kyle Freeland to the mound and he has allowed 10 runs (9 earned) on 19 hits in the 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two road starts. The Giants will have Ty Blach on the bump and he has allowed 14 earned runs on 21 hits in the 8 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two home starts. In Blach's last 7 starts overall there has not been a single under! Prior to yesterday's under, the over was 7-4 in Colorado's last 11 games. Also, the Giants were on a 10-4-1 run to the over their last 15 games prior to last night's extra inning marathon staying under the total. In afternoon games on the west coast the ball tends to carry better and the wind will be blowing out at a good clip for this one too. 8* OVER the total in San Francisco |
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06-28-17 | Phillies v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
IMPORTANT (this total IS AN 8.5 at the time of this posting but line feed is not working properly) Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 3:40 ET - With last night's game going over the total, the over is now a perfect 3-0 in games between these clubs this season. Not only that, the 3 games have averaged 15 runs per game! This total has dropped to an 8.5 this morning because Mark Leiter had a surprisingly solid start for the Phillies in his first ever MLB start and because Felix Hernandez is on the mound for the Mariners. Of course Hernandez has a helluva strong reputation but let's not forget that he does not have the same velocity he once did. That's a big part of the reason that Hernandez has a 4.68 ERA on the season. Also, he's not yet necessarily 100% healthy either and he has a 6.91 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP in his last 3 starts. As for Leiter, he had 14 walks against his 12 strikeouts in his 19 innings out of the bullpen this season. As a reliever he has compiled a 4.74 ERA this season. Leiter faces a tough Mariners lineup here and they are hungry to bounce back after a rare 3-game losing streak. That said, I don't expect this start to go very well at all for a still unproven Leiter. The over is 11-6 this season (and 51-33 the last 3 seasons combined) when the Phillies are a road dog of +125 to +175. The over is also an incredible 9-1 (90%) in Philadelphia's Wednesday games. Seattle is 16-9 to the over the past 3 seasons when they are a home favorite of -175 to -250. Also, the Mariners are 30-18 to the over in inter-league games the past 3 seasons combined. 8* OVER the total in Seattle |
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06-27-17 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:10 ET - With their 8-2 loss at St Louis yesterday, Cincinnati is now 8-1 to the over in their last 9 games. On the season, the Reds are 20-8 to the over in divisional games. Now Cincy is back home where they are known for higher-scoring games. The over is 112-76 in Reds home games the past 3 seasons combined. Today will be Cincinnati's 12th Tuesday games this season and so far only 1 of 11 have stayed under the total! Milwaukee was off yesterday but the Brewers enter Tuesday's action with an over mark of 21-10 in divisional games this season. Also, the over is 23-13 this season when the Brewers are off of a win. Junior Guerra gets the start for Milwaukee and he has a 1.50 WHIP in his last 3 starts as walks have been an issue. Guerra also has been giving up the home run ball. The Reds will have Tim Adleman on the mound and he has been giving up too many hits and has a 1.69 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Like Guerra, Adleman has also given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts. Guerra has walked 4 or more in each of his last 3 starts and Adleman has walked 4 baters in each of his last 2 starts. At hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, this one is destined to be a slugfest. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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06-27-17 | Rangers v. Indians OVER 10 | 2-1 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - Unfortunately I was on the wrong end of a wild game yesterday as the Rangers jumped ahead to a 9-2 lead but then allowed the Indians to score 13 unanswered. You would think we were talking about a Cowboys/Browns game in the NFL the way the scoring went yesterday. Anyway, it was a brutal loss for me to take but it cemented the fact that the Rangers bullpen (6.43 ERA on the road) is an absolute train-wreck away from home. Didn't expect that to be an issue yesterday with a 9-2 lead and Cole Hamels on the mound but, painfully, it was. The fact is that today it absolutely should be an issue as Tyson Ross gets the start. He is making just his 3rd start of the season (and his first on the road) and he has given up 9 earned runs in less than 9 innings of work in his first two starts. Pitching well and pitching deep are both highly unlikely for Ross in this one. As for the Indians, they starts Mike Clevinger and Cleveland is 0-3 in his home starts this season. Clevinger has a 5.62 ERA at Progressive Field this season and the Rangers have averaged 7 runs per game in their last 11 games. As for the Indians, they had slumped in their series with the Twins but the bats definitely woke up yesterday and the Tribe is now averaging 6.6 runs per game in their last 13 games. The Indians are 9-4 during this stretch and the Rangers were 6-4 their last 10 games before yesterday's ridiculous loss. The point is you have two confident, hot lineups at the plate and two sub-par starting pitchers. The over is 14-8 in Indians home games where they are priced as a money line favorite of -125 to -175. Texas is 6-2 to the over the last 3 seasons combined in road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. The Rangers are also a perfect 4-0 to the over this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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06-27-17 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 10 | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - The Blue Jays have averaged 10.3 hits per game in their last 8 games. The over is 8-4 in the Jays last 12 games. The Orioles come into this one having gone 7-2-1 to the over in their last 10 games. Baltimore sends Kevin Gausman to the mound for this one and the over is 10-5 in his starts this season. He has a 9.00 ERA in his 7 road starts this season! Gausman is certainly not showing any signs of improvement as he has a 9.20 ERA in his last 3 starts even though 2 of those have been at home! His WHIP is a ridiculous 2.32 in these last three outings. He'll be opposed by the Blue Jays Joe Biagini and he is coming down to earth in a hurry after a surprisingly out of this world start to the season. As expected, reality is setting in and Biagini has allowed 11 runs (10 earned) in his last two starts spanning less than 7 innings of work! This will be his first start versus the Orioles and he's catching them at the wrong time as they've been surging at the plate. The O's have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 9 games. As for Gausman, he's facing the Blue Jays for the 4th time already this season and the constant repetition is not helping him! In his last start versus Toronto they got to him for 10 hits in just 6 innings of work. I am looking for more of the same today as Gausman's trending toward the over continues. As for Biagini, look for this one to make it 3 straight overs in his starts as his recent struggles continue. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 on the season when Toronto is playing after an off day. As for Baltimore, the over is 31-18 this season in their games against right-handed starters. 8* OVER the total in Toronto |
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06-26-17 | Twins v. Red Sox OVER 8 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach Monday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET - This is a contrarian play as, on the surface, it looks like a pitchers duel. The fact is that Chris Sale has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 7 of his last 9 starts. Also, he allowed 9 hits in 7 innings in his most recent start. The Twins could enjoy some surprising success at the plate here as Minnesota has gotten to Sale for 9 earned runs in 11 innings the last two times they have faced him. Also, Minny comes into this game having won 5 of their last 6 games and averaging 5.2 runs per game in those 5 victories. Jose Berrios gets the start for the Twins here and he has great numbers on the season but he has been hit a little harder in recent starts away from home. After back to back strong starts at home, look for Berrios to get "touched up" here. Boston is off of back to back home losses but they're hitting .281 at Fenway Park this season (#1 in the American League) and they've provided some huge run support in recent Sale starts. Look for them to back the ace southpaw with another strong effort tonight. Berrios has made 8 starts so far this season and not a single one has gone over the total. Sale is one of the best pitchers in the game today. Yet oddsmakers hung an 8.5 on this one for the opening total. Of course the total has since dropped to an 8 and I am happy to fade the move here based on the reasoning above. Look for the over to improve to 18-10 this season in Red Sox games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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06-26-17 | Cubs v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Monday 8* OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - The Cubs stranded 11 men on base yesterday and that led to a 4-2 loss at Miami. The Nationals had a rare poor day at the plate and suffered a 6-2 home loss at the hands of the Reds. The Nats had previously won 7 of their last 11 games. Washington, even with you yesterday's poor hitting day, have averaged 7 runs per game in their last 13 games! The Cubs, prior to yesterday's loss had also won 7 of their last 11 games and they had averaged 5.6 runs per game during this solid stretch. In other words, you've got two teams coming into this one off of a loss but that had been on a decent run and had been putting up some solid run totals. The Cubs are 12-6 in their games against left-handed starters and they have a .361 on base percentage versus southpaws. That mark is good for the #1 spot in the National League. Though Nationals left-hander Gio Gonzalez has been solid this season, he did compile a 6.00 ERA in his two starts versus the Cubs last season! Chicago will have Eddie Butler on the mound this evening. He has made one starts against the Nationals in his career and it did not go well with 8 hits and 4 walks leading to 4 earned runs in 6 innings. The damage could have easily been worse too. Also, Butler has an ugly 5.62 ERA in his road starts this season. The over is 17-10 in Washington's games this season when they are off of a loss. Also, the over is 27-13 in Nationals night games this year! As a road dog in a price range of +125 to +175, the Cubs are 15-8 to the over the past 3 seasons combined. 8* OVER the total in Washington |
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06-25-17 | Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies @ 4:10 ET - The very first numbers to come out on this game showed an opener of 9 on the total and then it dropped to as low as an 8 before now settling in at an 8.5 across the board. The fact is that 9 certainly may seem high for a game at Dodger Stadium but in typical contrarian fashion, that is part of the reason I am happily backing the over here. Don't be fooled by the big number on this one. the fact is that the Rockies Tyler Anderson got rocked by Seattle in his most recent start for 6 earned runs on 11 hits in 5 innings of work. Though his two prior outings were both solid road starts, he faced two of the worst teams in MLB - Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Now he faces a tough Dodgers lineup and, even with the strong starts versus the Reds and Phillies, Anderson has a 5.51 ERA on the road this season. The over is 4-2 in his 6 road starts this year. Although the Dodgers Brandon McCarthy has put up strong numbers this season, he has a 5.40 ERA in his last two starts versus the Rockies. Also, his strikeout numbers are down recently and he is facing a Colorado team that is averaging 5.5 runs per game in their games against right-handed starters this season. After struggling with southpaws Wood and Kershaw the past two games, the Rockies will be happy to face a right-hander today. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 in Anderson's road starts this season and 11-4 in Dodgers home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs on the year! 10* OVER the total in LA Dodgers Sunday afternoon |
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06-25-17 | Cubs v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 8* OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs @ 1:10 ET - I got burned in this one yesterday as the over died after a great early start. I won't hesitate to come right back with it here. The Marlins send Edinson Volquez to the mound and he has certainly cooled down after a great start to the month including his no-hitter a few weeks ago. In his last two starts Volquez has given up 11 runs (10 earned) on 18 baserunners in less than 9 innings of work. The Cubs will have Mike Montgomery on the mound and the southpaw is off of a strong start but that was against a Padres team that is hitting .214 against lefties this season. That ranks San Diego last in the majors. As for the Marlins, they're one of the top hitting teams in the National League against lefties as they are hitting .265 against southpaws on the season. Montgomery's only road start this season went over the total and each of the last two starts Volquez has made have gone over the total. The over is 7-4 in Cubs Sunday games this season. The over is 15-7 in Marlins home games where their money line ranges from -125 to +125. Also, the over is 9-5 in Miami's games against left-handed starters. Overall, the over is 17-10 in Marlins games against teams with a winning record this season. 8* OVER the total in Miami |
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06-24-17 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach Saturday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:15 ET - With yesterday's 9-4 Red Sox win cruising over the total, Boston has now recorded 3 straight overs and the Angels have recorded 5 straight overs. On a mild evening at Fenway Park and with two struggling pitchers on the mound, I don't expect these trends to come to an end. JC Ramirez gets the start for the Angels and the right-hander has given up 18 earned runs on 28 hits in his last 18 innings of work. That equates to a 9.00 ERA in the last 4 starts Ramirez has made and he now faces a Boston team that is averaging 6.6 runs per game in its last 5 home games. The Red Sox will be starting David Price. The Boston southpaw got a late start to this season and he really has not been as impressive as we're use to seeing from Price. The bad news for the left-hander is that things appear to be getting worse, not better, as he has a 6.75 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Price allowed 5 homers in the 16 innings spanning those 3 starts. He now faces an Angels team that has averaged 6.3 runs and 11 hits per game in it's last 6 games. In road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs, the over is 3-1 in Angels games this season. The Red Sox have gone 4-1 to the over in their last 5 games overall and they've had just 1 under in their last 5 home games. Look for another wild one at Fenway Park tonight. 10* OVER the total in Boston early Saturday evening. |
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06-24-17 | Cubs v. Marlins OVER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach Saturday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:10 ET - After yesterday's pitchers duel, today's afternoon match-up has all the right ingredients to play out in completely opposite fashion. Look for a slugfest here! The Marlins Justin Nicolino returned from the disabled list and promptly got rocked at home versus Washington. The Miami southpaw gave up 6 runs (3 earned) on 7 hits (including 2 homers) in just 3 innings of work! Niccolino is facing a Cubs lineup that will be fired up after getting shutout yesterday and the Cubs have a .457 slugging percentage against southpaws this season. That ranks them 4th out of all 30 teams in the majors. As for the Marlins, they have an on base percentage of .342 against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them 4th out of all 30 teams. Miami will be facing southpaw Jon Lester whom has not fared nearly as well on the road as he has at home. Away from home this season, Lester is 1-3 with a 5.84 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP. The over is 17-9 this season in Miami's games against teams with a winning record and the over is also a solid 9-4 this year in Marlins games against left-handed starters. The Cubs, as a road favorite of -175 or more, are 4-2 to the over this season and 22-11 to the over the past 3 seasons combined. Also, Chicago is 10-6 to the over this year in games against left-handed starters. 10* OVER the total in Miami Saturday afternoon |
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06-23-17 | A's v. White Sox OVER 10 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach Friday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Oakland A's @ 8:10 ET - Mike Pelfrey has pitched surprisingly well this season but, prior to a strong start in his most recent outing, he has been showing signs of coming back to 'reality' recently. Pelfrey, previous to a solid outing versus Toronto, had given up 12 hits and 8 walks for a total of 20 baserunners in the 9 innings spanning his two prior starts! We could see more results like that today as he is 0-4 with a 7.96 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP in the 4 starts he has made against the A's in his career. As for Oakland, Jharel Cotton gets the start in this one. The right-hander has gone 4-7 with a 5.40 ERA on the season. Also, he is not really showing any signs of improvement as he has a 6.23 ERA in his last 3 starts and he allowed 2 homers in EACH of those three outings! Facing the hot hitters of the White Sox is unlikely to help matters for Cotton. The ChiSox are 6-4 in their last 10 games and they've scored an average of 6.4 runs per game during this hot streak. The White Sox have averaged 11 hits per game in their last 13 games! As for the Athletics, the over is 13-5-2 in their last 20 games. Oakland is also 26-14 to the over this season when off of a loss. The White Sox are 19-11 to the over this season in their games against teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox |
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06-23-17 | Orioles v. Rays OVER 9 | 5-15 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Friday MLB 8* OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - Ubaldo Jimenez is off of a strong start but that was in interleague action against an opponent that was not too familiar with him. Now Jimenez faces a divisional foe that certainly has seen plenty of him. The Orioles right-hander, even after a rare quality start versus St Louis, has a 6.94 ERA and 1.65 WHIP as a starter this season. He'll be opposed by Chris Archer. Though his numbers are good (as usual) this season, Archer has found the Orioles to be a bit of a nemesis for him. The Rays right-hander is 3-6 with a 4.79 ERA in his career against Baltimore. The Orioles will be facing him for the 4th time already since last year's All Star break and Archer has a 5.31 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the O's. The Orioles have pounded him for 7 homers in those 20 and 1/3 innings. The over is 12-5-1 in the Orioles last 18 games. The Rays have also been an "over machine" of late as the over is 11-2-1 in Tampa Bay's last 14 games! The over is 26-12 this season when the Rays are off of a win, the over is 11-4 in TB games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and Tampa is 10-1 to the over in Friday games this season! Look for more Friday "fireworks" in this one. 8* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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06-22-17 | Cubs v. Marlins OVER 9 | Top | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Thursday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - The Cubs lost 3-2 yesterday and truly haven't been overly impressive at the plate of late. However, facing Jeff Locke should bring out the best in them. They just faced him at Wrigley Field earlier this month and they really forced him to labor in that outing. Overall, Locke has been unimpressive with a 5.79 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Now the Cubs get a quick second look at him and they'll be ready to crush the ball today after a disappointing home loss to the Padres yesterday. As for the Marlins, they were no-hit late into yesterday's match-up against Max Scherzer of the Nationals but then they managed to rally late for the 2-1 win. There is reason to believe the Marlins will fare much better against the Cubs Jake Arrieta. The right-hander did enjoy success against Miami earlier this month but that outing was at Wrigley Field. On the road this season, the Cubs are 3-6 in Arrieta's starts and he has a 5.07 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in those outings. Arrieta has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his last 7 road outings. His most recent start stayed under the total but, prior to that, 9 of Arrieta's last 12 starts went over the total. The Marlins are 29-13 to the over in night games this season and I expect another one here as both lineups respond after poor performances at the plate yesterday. The pitching match-up today is very conducive to an over. The Cubs lead the National League in homers (28) versus left-handed pitchers. Miami is hitting .263 in night games which ranks 5th in the NL this season. Their high-scoring trending under the lights continues in this one Thursday. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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06-22-17 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 10 | 9-0 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Thursday MLB 8* OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox - The only thing that can stop us here is the weather. There is a chance of thunderstorms in Minneapolis today but this situation is too strong to pass up on. First off I did lose with the over in this match-up yesterday as the game died out after being 4-2 through 3 innings. Needless to say I am not too happy about it but I won't hesitate to come right back with the same play here. Jose Quintana is on the mound for the White Sox and he's been struggling in day games again this season. This is nothing new as he went 0-5 with a 5.49 ERA in day games in 2015. Then, last year he did have a good overall year but had a losing record in day games. This season he is an awful 1-6 with a 6.45 ERA in day games! Also, Quintana has allowed 12 earned runs in less than 11 innings of work spanning his last two starts at Minnesota. He'll be opposed by Nic Turley for the Twins. The fellow southpaw has been rocked in both his starts since moving into the rotation. Turley has given up 12 earned runs in less than 9 innings of work spanning his two starts. The over is 6-1 in Chicago's Thursday games this season and Minny is 16-7 to the over in home games with a money line between +125 and -125 this season. Look for a slugfest early Thursday in this one. 8* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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06-21-17 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
AL Central Total of the Year - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - Jose Berrios has put up surprisingly strong numbers this season. However, he still has made only 7 starts this season and this is a guy who went 3-7 with an 8.02 ERA in twice as many starts as that last year. Also, although Berrios is off of a strong start, he had previously been showing signs of "coming back down to earth" after his "out of this world" start to the season. Berrios, in his 4 prior outings, allowed 11 earned runs on 21 hits and 11 walks in the 22 and 2/3 innings spanning those 4 starts. That works out to a 4.37 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. Certainly those are respectable numbers but it shows that a Berrios "correction" of his insanely strong numbers from earlier this season is quite likely. The White Sox did face Berrios last October so thiey are not without some experience against the young right-hander. As for the ChiSox starting David Holmberg here, the southpaw has produced decent numbers but has only last 17 innings in his 4 starts. That means another long day for a White Sox bullpen that again saw plenty of action yesterday is quite likely tonight! These teams combined for 16 runs on 28 hits and I am expecting another wild one tonight. The ChiSox have averaged 11 hits per game in their last 12 games! The Twins bullpen has a 5.25 ERA this season which ranks them dead last in the majors. The over is 18-10 this season in Twins games against teams with a losing record and the over is 95-60 the last 3 seasons combined when Minny is facing a team with a sub-.500 record. With the low ERA numbers these two starters have this season the O/U in the 10 range may look high but, as you can see above, there is plenty of justification for the odds makers setting this total where they did. I'll gladly take advantage of the line move that has it a 9.5 in many books this morning. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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06-21-17 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 8* OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals @ 12:10 ET - Washington rolled Miami 12-3 yesterday. Each of the first two games in this series have gone over the total and the Nationals are now 8-1 to the over in their last 9 games. Prior to yesterday's loss, the Marlins had reached double digits in hits in 8 of their last 10 games. For the Nats, yesterday's big win marked the 9th time in their last 13 games that they've reached double digits in hits. No team in the majors has scored more runs on the road than Washington this season and team in the National League has hit more homers on the road than the Nats. As for the Marlins, their .269 batting average on the season ranks them 3rd in the National League. While Max Scherzer and Daniel Straily are both solid pitchers, that doesn't change the fact that they're both facing very potent lineups today. The last time Scherzer faced Miami he allowed 5 earned runs on 9 hits in just 5 innings of work. He has allowed 2 homers in each of his last two starts versus the Marlins. The last time Straily faced Washington he gave up 5 earned runs on 6 hits and 2 walks with no strikeouts in an ugly 3 and 1/3 innings outing. Each of Scherzer's last 3 starts against the Marlins have gone over the total and all 3 of Straily's starts against the Nationals in his career have gone over the total. More of the same Wednesday early and we can take advantage of the downward move on this O/U that has taken place this morning. 8* OVER the total in Miami |
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06-20-17 | Mets v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-12 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets @ 10:10 ET - Robert Gsellman gets the start for the Mets here and he has a 6.26 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP on the season. He was rocked for 7 earned runs on 11 hits in just 5 innings of work in his most recent start. That start was at home too! On the road this season Gsellman has a 7.96 ERA. The over is 9-3 in his 12 starts this season! As for the Dodgers, they'll have Brandon McCarthy on the mound for this one. Even though he has some strong numbers on the season he has as many walks as strikeouts in his last two starts. He's averaged less than 5 innings per start in his last 3 starts and the Mets, entering Monday's action, are averaging 5.9 runs per game on the road this season. As for the Dodgers they entered Monday night's action having averaged 6.2 runs per game while going 9-1 in their last 10 games. They should have no trouble with the offerings of a struggling Gsellman here while the Mets season-long trend of "overs" continues. New York entered Monday having gone 33-10 to the over in night games this season. Also, the over is a perfect 6-0 this season in Mets Tuesday games. The Dodgers entered Monday's action having gone 17-9 to the over this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Dodgers are 9-3 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Entering Monday, LA was on an 8-1 run to the over in their last 9 games and the Mets were on a 5-1 run to the over. More of the same expected here on Tuesday. 10* OVER the total in LA Dodgers |
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06-20-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11 | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 38 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 8* OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:40 ET - With the long-term reputation of Zack Greinke and the fact that German Marquez has had some impressive starts early this season, this total is being held lower than it should be on another hitter-friendly night at Coors Field. Greinke has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts against the Rockies and he has been fortunate that the damage (in terms of earned runs) has not been worse. As for Marquez, he allowed 5 earned runs (including 2 homers) in his most recent start against Arizona. The Diamondbacks will be getting what is already their third look at Marquez this season. The Rockies are seeing Greinke for the 3rd time already this season. Both of these teams are red hot so the lineups will have plenty of confidence at the plate for this one. Arizona has averaged scoring 7 runs per game in going 10-1 in their last 11 games. Colorado has averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in going 12-3 in their last 15 games. Both teams were off yesterday on Monday and the Diamondbacks are 8-0 to the over this season when playing after a day off. The Dbacks are also 7-3 to the over in Tuesday games and the Rockies are 8-4 to the over in Tuesday games this season. The past 3 seasons combined Colorado has gone 27-17 to the over when playing after a day off. Look for another one here as the Rockies and Arizona duke it out for the top spot in the division. 8* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-19-17 | Pirates v. Brewers OVER 9 | 8-1 | Push | 0 | 23 h 50 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Monday MLB 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:40 ET - I know that Gerrit Cole is off of a strong start but he had given up 23 earned runs on 39 hits in the 19 and 1/3 innings spanning his 4 prior starts! Two of those outings were on the road and Cole has struggled on the road this season. The Pirates are 2-5 in his 7 road starts and Cole has a 5.67 ERA in those outings. Cole will be opposed by the Brewers Matt Garza whom certainly has been a little shaky of late. Garza has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts. In his last two starts Garza has as many walks as strikeouts. The over is 8-2 this season in Pirates road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Brewers are 20-8 to the over in divisional games this season. Milwaukee's game yesterday against the Padres stayed under the total but the Brewers were previously on an 8-2 run to the over in their 10 prior games. Also, the last time Cole visited Milwaukee he was rocked for 5 earned runs on 8 hits in just 4 innings of work. Cole and Garza had a surprising pitchers duel when they met in May but neither one is in good current form now and this one is likely to play out in complete opposite fashion to the May match-up. Look for the over to improve to 7-1 this season (and 26-14 the last 3 seasons) in Brewers Monday games as this series starts off with plenty of fireworks. The Pirates, before yesterday's loss had averaged 5 runs per game in their last 8 games. The Brewers, before yesterday's low-scoring win, had averaged 6.4 runs per game in their last 5 games. The hot hitting resumes here. 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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06-19-17 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 9.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Monday MLB 8* OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals @ 7:10 ET - Washington has been an under team against left-handed starters this season but that is a bit of a fluke because they've actually hit .272 against lefties with a .462 slugging percentage against southpaw pitching on the season. Both those stats rank the Nationals among the top teams in the majors! Of course overall this season the Nats slugging percentage is #1 in the majors and I expect them to enjoy success against a southpaw who is likely to struggle Monday. Justin Nicolino gets the start for the Marlins and he was 3-6 with a 4.99 ERA last season and has not pitched much at the MLB level this season. He got hit at a .307 clip at the MLB level last season and, now this season in the minors, he has struggled. Nicolino is 1-3 at the AAA level this year and has been hit at a .291 clip there. Though he shut down the Phillies (weak team) in his most recent start, he allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings in his prior start. The Nationals will be ready to bounce back after a sub-par showing at the plate yesterday. Before being held to 1 run in yesterday's game, the Nats had averaged 7.3 runs per game in their 6 prior games! Miami is off of a 5-4 loss yesterday. The Marlins had gone 6-3 in their 9 prior games however and averaged 7 runs per game during this hot streak. The Marlins should certainly do some damage against a struggling Tanner Roark. The Washington right-hander has allowed 12 runs (9 earned) on 20 hits in the 11 innings spanning his last two starts. Overall, Roark has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his last 9 starts. The over is 9-4-1 in his starts this season and only 1 of his 6 road starts has resulted in an under. Also, the over is 12-6 in Marlins home games with a line between -125 and +125. Also, the over is 27-13 in Miami night games and 14-7 in Marlins games against teams with a winning record this season. Washington is 24-13 to the over in night games this season. 8* OVER the total in Miami |
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06-18-17 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - David Price is slated for the start for the Red Sox in tonight's game even though he is dealing with a blister on his throwing hand. Joe Musgrove gets the start for the Astros here even though he struggled through a short outing (couldn't complete 5 innings) versus the Rangers on Monday. Musgrove had just returned from a trip to the disabled list due to shoulder pain. The point is that both of these hurlers have some issues right now and I expect them both to struggle here. After a red hot 6-game tear, the Red Sox lineup has suddenly struggled in their last 3 games. Look for the opportunity for the Boston lineup to "get healthy" versus Musgrove to pay immediate dividends here. Opponents are hitting .290 against Musgrove on the season. As for Boston's Price, the southpaw wasn't exactly spectacular in his most recent start and that was against the lowly Phils. In his last road start he gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings of work. Considering the blister issue as well as the fact that the Astros have a .463 slugging percentage at home this season (good for 4th in the National League this season), look for Price to again struggle on the road here just like he did in the Bronx earlier this month. The over is 7-2 in Boston's Sunday games this season and the over is 7-2 in Astros games played on Sundays this year. Look for more Sunday fireworks after yesterday's game stalled out and fell short of going over the total even though 6 runs were scored in the first three innings! 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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06-18-17 | Padres v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres @ 2:10 ET - Yesterday's over was certainly a fortunate one for those who had it as the game went to extra-innings tied at 3. However, it doesn't change the fact that the Padres have now gone over the total to the tune of 11-2-1 in the month of June! As for the Brewers, they are now 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games. Although the Padres Luis Perdomo has had some solid quality outings this season, San Diego is 0-4 in his road starts this season. The San Diego right-hander had a very rough outing in his most recent road start and now gives the Brewers a 2nd look at him after facing them in mid-May in San Diego. Jimmy Nelson gets the start for Milwaukee here and he has allowed 7 earned runs in less than 12 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, in his last two starts against the Padres he has allowed 8 earned runs in 10 innings of work. Nelson faced them in San Diiego in mid-May and though Nelson was solid against them then and, though Perdomo was solid against the Brewers then, both these lineups have been heating up since then. The Padres have averaged 5.8 runs per game in their last 8 games. The Brewers have scored 5 runs or more in 9 of their last 12 games. The over is 21-14 this season in Padres games against teams with a winning record. The Brewers are 24-13 to the over in their home games this season. Nelson has averaged 5.7 innings per start his last 11 starts and Perdomo has averaged just 5.5 innings per starts on the season. That means both bullpens could have some extra work here and they both rank in the lower third of the National League for ERA so far this season. 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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06-18-17 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 8* OVER the total in New York Mets vs Washington Nationals @ 1:10 ET - The Mets continue to be an over machine this season! With yesterday's loss to the Nationals going over the total, New York is now 40-19 to the over on the season. The over is a perfect 3-0 so far in this series and, overall, the Mets are on a 5-0 run to the over and the Nats are on a 6-0 run to the over. Even though Jacob deGrom is off of a fantastic start in his last outing, his two prior starts saw him ripped for a combined 15 earned runs in just 8 innings of work. Walks have been an issue for deGrom as he has walked 21 in his last 4 home starts. Joe Ross gets the start for Washington and he has allowed 5 earned runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts. Ross has allowed 9 earned runs on 17 hits in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts versus the Mets. Of his 8 starts this season, only 1 has resulted in an under! The over is 24-10 in Mets home games this season. 8* OVER the total in New York Mets |
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06-17-17 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach Saturday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:15 ET - Jake Arrieta of the Cubs is coming off of a tough start so many will be looking for the "bounce back" here. After all, Arrieta is still a big "name" that guys look to for strong starts. The problem with that theory is he is just not producing this season and this is particularly true on the road. Arrieta gave up 4 runs at home in his most recent start and that was at home. On the road, Arrieta is coming off of a strong start but it was against the light-hitting Padres. Was San Diego's lineup a factor? You bet! In Arrieta's 5 prior road starts he gave up 4 earned runs or more in all 5 starts! Look for another tough outing here for him as Pitsburgh has scored 5 runs or more in 8 of their last 11 games. The Cubs have also been heating up at the plate again after a rare dry spell. Chicago has won 3 of its past 5 games and averaged 7 runs per game during this hot streak. Ivan Nova gets the start for the Pirates. He does have good overall numbers on the season and is off of a strong start. However, prior to shutting down the Marlins in a solid 6-inning outing, Nova had been getting a little "touched up" over his 7 prior starts (including 5 straight where he allowed at least 3 earned runs in every single outing). Nova's ERA in these 7 starts was a respectable 4.40 but he did allow 56 hits in the 45 innings! He now faces a dangerous Cubs lineup and, also helping our cause here is the unsettled Pirates bullpen. Remember those games where they recently blew back to back big leads versus Baltimore in interleague action? Their bullpen had another implosion in last night's 9-5 loss. The Bucs pen can't be trusted, Arrieta can't be trusted for the Cubs, and this one has the makings of another easy over. The over is 4-2 in Nova's last 6 starts and 9-3 in Arrieta's last 12 starts. Cubs divisional games are 20-9 to the over this season. The Pirates are 42-28 to the over in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs the past 3 seasons combined. Another wild one expected here! 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Saturday evening |
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06-17-17 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 10.5 | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Saturday MLB 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 4:10 ET - I know last night's game was a pitchers duel but today's match-up has the right ingredients to be anything but that! The Reds Asher Wojciechowski just faced the Dodgers in LA and he gave up 4 earned runs in 5 innings while striking out only 1. He has a 6.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. As for the Dodgers Hyun-Jin Ryu, the southpaw just faced the Reds in Los Angeles and he gave up 3 homers to Cincinnati at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium! Overall Ryu has struggled as he has been hit hard in 4 of his last 5 starts. The Dodgers are 0-5 in his road starts this season and he has a 1.54 WHIP away from home. The Reds are averaging 5.6 runs per game at home this season and will bounce back at the plate today as they face a struggling hurler. The Dodgers only scored 3 runs yesterday but they've now won 7 of their last 8 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their last 7 games! The over is 15-9 in their games against teams with a losing record and the over is 7-3 in Dodgers Saturday games. As for the Reds, the over is 7-2 this season (and 30-16 the last 3 seasons) when they are a home dog in a price range of +125 to +175. Cincinnati is also 15-7 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record. Like the Dodgers, the Reds have a pattern of high-scoring games on Saturdays with a 7-2 over record so far this season. Look for more of the same here as there is reason to believe both hurlers struggle badly in this one. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Saturday afternoon |
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06-17-17 | White Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Saturday MLB 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:05 ET - The real Mike Pelfrey is starting to show up but we are still getting line value here because of his long-term numbers this season and the fact that he has been fortunate and has escaped big damage in his last two starts. But take a look at those two outings as he has given up 12 hits and 8 walks in a total of just 9 innings of work. The fact that Pelfrey has allowed 2.2 baserunners per inning but only allowed 2 earned runs in each start is a miracle. I'll take advantage of the line value still being offered with him as his recent poor performances are flying a bit under the radar because of the low ERA. He'll be opposed by Marcus Stroman and, even though the Blue Jays right-hander has been throwing well, he has a poor history against the White Sox and Chicago is red hot at the plate right now. Toronto is 0-4 in Stroman's 4 career starts against the ChiSox and he has compiled an ugly 7.70 ERA in those four outings. With yesterday's 11-4 win, the White Sox are now 4-1 in their last 5 games and they've averaged 7.6 runs during this hot streak. The over is 19-9 when the White Sox are on the road with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, this season the ChiSox are 18-10 to the over in their games against teams with a losing record. 8* OVER the total in Toronto very early Saturday afternoon |
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06-16-17 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
NL West Total of the Year - Rickenbach Friday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET - Yes this is an important top pick for me (as you can see from the play title I am using) and yes I am aware that Eduardo Nunez and Buster Posey left last night's game in the latter innings with injuries. However, Nunez only had 1 of the Giants 17 hits yesterday! As for Posey, certainly he is a fantastic hitter but consider his importance behind the plate as well. If Posey isn't behind the dish for San Francisco it could absolutely be impacting to Giants pitcher Jeff Samardzija. Regardless of who ends up behind the plate tonight, Samardzija is likely to struggle. The right-hander got rocked for 7 runs in 5 and 1/3 innings in his last start at Colorado and that was in late April. The weather will be very warm tonight and the hitters for both clubs should again have a huge night at the plate after the 19 run outburst last night. As for the Rockies Antonio Senzatela, he fared well when he faced the Giants earlier this season but he certainly is in poor current form now compared to how he was throwing in the early stages of this season. Senzatela has been hit quite hard in 5 of his last 6 outings. The one exception was an 8-inning gem against St Louis. In the other 5 outings Senzatela allowed 19 earned runs on 30 hits in 25 and 1/3 innings of work. That works out to a 6.75 ERA in those 5 starts and, right now, the Giants have been heating up at the plate. San Francisco has recorded double digits in hits in 4 of their last 7 games. The Giants have averaged 12.3 hits per game in their last 4 games! SF is on a 4-0 run to the over. The over is 8-2 in Senzatela's last 10 starts. Also, the over is 21-11 in San Francisco's road games this season! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-15-17 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach Thursday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET - The Giants lost 7-2 yesterday but they did have 10 hits. It was the third time in six games that San Francisco has reached double digits in hits. However, those games were at home and the Giants have actually been swinging the bats better on the road and now head to hitter-friendly Coors Field for this series. San Francisco has averaged 6 runs per game and 10.4 hits per game in their last 7 road games. I am well aware of the fact that Colorado's Jefff Hoffman has put up some phenomenal numbers in his last 3 starts but all those were on the road. Though he does have great strikeout numbers, Hoffman's lone home start did see him allow 3 earned runs on 6 hits and 2 walks in just 5 and 1/3 innings of work. The Rockies are off of a 5-1 win yesterday and are now 9-4 in the month of June. Colorado has averaged 6 runs per game this month and this will be just their 3rd home game so far this month. It is getting to the time of year now when the ball carries exceptionally well at Coors Field and the Rockies scored a combined 19 runs in their other 2 home games this month. They should have no problem with the offerings of Matt Moore. The Giants left-hander has allowed 11 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts against the Rockies and one of those outings was in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. Moore is 0-4 on the road this season with a 7.94 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in his 7 starts away from home. The over is 6-0, one push, in his road starts this season. The over is 5-2 this season in Giants road games where they are a dog in a range of +125 to +175. Look for another one here as Moore's over record goes to 7-0 in road games this season! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-15-17 | Mariners v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Thursday MLB 8* OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners @ 1:10 ET - Last night's game just missed going over the total but these lineups have been red hot at the plate even though yesterday's 6-4 Mariners win fell just short of cashing another over. The Mariners have averaged 9 runs per game in the first 3 contests of this 4-game set. The Twins have averaged just under 9 runs per game in their last 4 games as a 13-8 loss preceded this series with Seattle. The fact is that Minnesota has been an "over machine" in spots like this as the over is 15-6 this season in Twins home games where their money line ranges from -125 to +125. Also, the over is 8-4 in Minny's home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. I know the Twins Jose Berrios made a lot of headlines with his fantastic starts when he first moved into the rotation but certainly he has come back down to earth. Berrios has a 4.41 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in his last 3 starts. As for the Mariners Ariel Miranda, he has a 5.69 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in road starts this season. The very first O/U that was posted on this game yesterday when lines first came out was 10.5 and it quickly dropped and is a solid 9.5 across the board as of early gameday morning. The move has a lot to do with the long-term numbers of Berrios and Miranda this season and the fact that both of them have been "under" pitchers this season. However, as noted above, Berrios has come back to reality now after pitching exceptionally well early this season and Miranda is not the same pitcher on the road as he is in Seattle. With how hot the bats have been in this series and with the wind blowing out to dead center on a warm afternoon in Minneapolis, there is only one way to go in this one. 8* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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06-14-17 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-13 | Win | 102 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers @ 8:10 ET - The Astros are starting Francis Martes. He is only 21 years old and this will be his first ever MLB start. In his only other appearance (Friday) he allowed 4 earned runs in 3 and 2/3 innings out of the bullpen. This season has been his first season in the minors above the AA level and it has NOT gone well. Martes has gone winless in 8 starts with a 5.29 ERA and opponents have hit .299 against him! In other words, with a lack of success above the AA level in the minors now Martes makes his first ever MLB start. Now, making the situation even tougher on him is the fact that he faces a red hot Rangers lineup. Texas has won 5 straight games and 6 of their last 7. The Rangers have averaged 5.6 runs per game during this 7-game stretch. As for the Astros, though they've been slumping, they will take advantage of facing the Rangers Andrew Cashner for the 3rd time in the past 6 weeks! In fact, Houston just saw him in Arlington less than 2 weeks ago and they pounded him for 5 earned runs on 11 hits in 6 innings of work. Cashner's strikeout numbers are down this season and the Astros are loaded with sluggers so when they make contact, look out! By the way, the Rangers bullpen (5.57 ERA and 1.68 WHIP on the road) should also help our cause here. On Wednesdays, the over is 6-3 in Astros games and 8-2 in Rangers games this season. Going further back, Texas is 41-19 to the over in Wednesday games the past 3 seasons combined. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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06-14-17 | Royals v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 8* OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals @ 3:45 ET - The Royals are heating up. After yesterday's 8-1 win, Kansas City has now won 3 straight games and averaged 9.3 runs per game during this hot streak. Going further back, the Royals have had 7 overs in their last 8 games and KC has averaged 6.4 runs per game during this 8 game stretch. I don't expect the Giants Johnny Cueto to slow them down. He is a former Royals so they know plenty about him and he did allow 9 hits in 7 innings the last time he faced Kansas City. Cueto has allowed 14 hits and 4 walks in the 11 innings spanning his last two starts. That works out to an unsightly 1.64 WHIP for the right-hander in his last two outings. I know that the Royals Jason Hammel has thrown better in his recent outings but those were all at home! Kansas City is 0-4 this season in Hammel's road starts and he has a 6.43 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP in those outings. The Giants will be getting a 2nd look at Hammel this season and this time they get him at AT & T Park rather than Kauffman Stadium. Prior to yesterday's loss, San Francisco had scored 7 runs or more in 5 of their last 10 games. Facing Hammel could very well lead to another huge game at the plate for the Giants here. Only 1 of Cueto's 5 home starts this season has resulted in an under. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 in Royals inter-league action on the season as we take advantage of the low total here. 8* OVER the total in San Francisco Wednesday |
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06-13-17 | Cubs v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 14-3 | Win | 105 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 8* OVER the total in New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - The Mets are on a surprising "under streak" as they have been an "over team" for much of this season. Yesterday's game stayed under the total despite the fact that the Mets scored 6 runs on 11 hits. I expect both teams to produce those types of results in today's rematch. I know Zack Wheeler of the Mets has some good career numbers against the Cubs. However, the Mets have had just 2 unders in his 11 starts this season and Wheeler gave up 10 hits in 6 and 1/3 innings in his most recent home start. The Cubs will have Jon Lester on the mound and the southpaw has been struggling and has an 8.16 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, on the season, Lester has a 7.10 ERA in his road starts. The last two times he has faced the Mets in New York he has allowed 12 earned runs on 17 hits (including 5 homers) in just 8 innings of work! The over is 4-0 in Lester's road starts this season and 4-1 in Wheeler's home starts this season. Look for the over to improve to 30-10 on the season in Mets night games as the Cubs sticks get back on track (had 7 runs on 12 hits Sunday) and the Mets stay hot at the plate. 8* OVER the total in New York Mets early Tuesday evening. |
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06-13-17 | Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 8* OVER 8.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Jacob Faria had a solid start in his MLB debut but that was at home. Now the young right-hander is on the road and let's not forget he had a 6.14 ERA in spring training this year and was 5-10 with a 4.00 ERA in the MINORS last season! Though he has good stuff, Faria is still a developing hurler. As for the Blue Jays, they send a struggling Marco Estrada to the mound for this one. He has given up 11 earned runs on 16 hits in 9 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, against the Rays, Estrada has given up 14 earned runs in 16 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. In those 3 outings Estrada has been rocked for 6 homers. Look for more of the same Tuesday night as Tampa Bay's lineup certainly comes into this one hot. The over is a perfect 5-0 in the Rays last 6 games as their hot hitting has helped lead the way to a 5-1 run their last 6 games. Tampa Bay has averaged 6.6 runs and 10.6 hits per game in their last 5 games. The over is also on a 6-1 run in the Rays last 7 road games. TB is 28-16 to the over against right-handed starters this season and, as you can see per the above, should pound Estrada here. Nice situation here with Faria making his first ever MLB road start and Estrada struggling. 8* OVER the total in Toronto early Tuesday evening. |
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06-12-17 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Monday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers @ 8:10 ET - Happy to go contrarian here as the early move pushed this total from a 9 down to an 8.5 and I understand the move based on Yu Darvish being on the mound for the Rangers and Joe Musgrove having thrown 7 scoreless innings in his most recent start. However, here are the keys to value for this total. Darvish is 0-4 with a 5.81 ERA in his last 6 starts versus the Astros. These teams face each other a lot so there is plenty of familiarity for the Houston hitters with Darvish. Also, the Rangers right-hander has particularly struggled versus the Astros of late with 8 earned runs allowed on 14 hits in just 9 innings of work spanning his last two starts against Houston. As for Musgrove, though he's off of a strong start, that outing took place two weeks ago as he's just now coming back from a trip to the disabled list with a shoulder injury. I do not expect him to be 100% here and he has given up 13 runs (12 earned) in only 14 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Rangers. Those 3 outings included 2 September starts and then another start versus Texas last month so the Rangers have seen plenty of him recently. Again, that familiarity often leads to success for the hitters. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Musgrove's last 3 starts against the Rangers and none of Darvish's last 3 starts have stayed under the total! The Rangers have scored 5 runs or more in 8 of their last 11 games. The Astros have averaged 7 runs per game in going 13-4 in their last 17 games! Plenty of potency expected from both of these lineups today! The over is 9-3-2 in the Astros last 14 games and the over is 13-8 in Texas' games against teams with a winning record this season. 10* OVER the total in Houston Monday evening. |
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06-12-17 | Phillies v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Monday MLB 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:10 ET - Mild evening, wind blowing out to center field, and two pitchers likely to struggle means we have the perfect situation for an easy over. Of course the one concern is that the Phillies are one of the weaker hitting teams in the league but Philadelphia did get 5 runs on 12 hits yesterday and Boston's Rick Porcello is not in good current form. He allowed 2 homers in each of his last 2 starts and he comes into this match-up having been hit hard start after start. In fact, in Porcello's last 6 starts he has given up 56 hits in 37 and 1/3 innings. As you can see from those numbers he has been consistently hittable in recent weeks. As for Jerad Eickhoff of the Phillies, he is 0-7 on the season and has a 6.92 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The over is 6-2 in his last 8 starts overall and 4-1 in his last 5 road starts! The Red Sox only scored 3 runs yesterday but they had 12 hits and have now scored 19 runs on 36 hits in their last 3 games! They'll stay hot at the plate against Eickhoff whom they crushed for 6 earned runs in just 4 innings in his lone career start at Boston in September of 2015. The over is on a 30-19 run in Boston's games and a 30-13 run in Philadelphia's games. In road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs, the over is a perfect 4-0 this season in Phillies games. There is every reason to believe this will be another one here! 8* OVER the total in Boston early Monday evening. |
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06-11-17 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 4:10 ET - The first number that popped up on this total was a 9.5 but it was immediately bet down to an 8.5 before big bets were even able to come in. The point is that knowing where the odds makers heads were when setting a line is always helpful and I understand this will be a contrarian play with the public but this total has a great shot at surprising many. Even though the Brewers Chase Anderson and the Diamondbacks Ricky Ray have thrown extremely well of late, there are a number of key variables favoring the over. 2 of Anderson's last 3 starts have been at home and note that on the road this season he has a 4.36 ERA and the over is 4-2 in those 6 outings. 2 of Ray's last 3 starts have been on the road and note that at home this season he has a 5.67 ERA and the over is 5-1 in those 6 outings. Also, these lineups just faced these starting pitchers two weeks ago. The hurlers held the upper hand in those meetings but don't be surprised if the hitters fare much better in the rematch! The Brewers had averaged 6 runs and 11.5 hits per game in their last 4 games before getting shutdown yesterday. The Diamondbacks had averaged 8.6 runs per game in their last 5 games before yesterday's tight 3-2 win over Milwaukee. On the season Arizona is averaging 6.4 runs per game at home and the Brewers have a .450 slugging percentage versus lefties (ranks among tops in the league) and they have averaged 5.3 runs per game in match-ups with southpaw starters this year! Look for the over to improve to 10-5 this season in Brewers games against left-handers this season! The Diamondbacks had recorded 5 straight overs before yesterday's pitchers duel. Look for the "over trend" to resume here. 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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06-11-17 | A's v. Rays OVER 8 | 4-5 | Win | 105 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 8* OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland A's @ 1:10 ET - Yesterday the A's had 16 hits in each game of the double header. I know the Rays Chris Archer is a great pitcher but Oakland will be stepping to the plate with plenty of confidence early this afternoon after yesterday's big performances. Also, in Archer's only career start against Oakland he walked 4 and gave up 6 hits in just 5 and 1/3 innings of work. The A's will have Jesse Hahn on the mound. I know he's off of a start where he did not allow an earned run but his strikeout numbers have been down and he did allow 7 hits in 6 innings in that start. In fact, Hahn has now given up 37 hits in the 29 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 6 starts. With both games of the double-header yesterday going over the total, the over is now 7-1-1 in Oakland's last 9 games! As for the Rays, the over is now 10-3 in their last 13 games. The over is 19-8 in A's games against teams with a winning record this season and the over is 7-1 in Athletics Sunday games this year. The over is 19-12 in Rays games against teams with a losing record this year and the over is 27-16 in Tampa Bay's games against right-handed starters. Archer has a 4.64 ERA in his last 5 starts and this total is being kept low because of his long-term reputation. The fact is that the A's are "feeling it" right now at the plate and, at the same time, their own starter (Hahn) has been getting hit hard and is likely to struggle in this one. That should lead to an easy over especially when you consider both teams also had to use extra bullpen yesterday due to the double-header. 8* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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06-10-17 | Phillies v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 2:15 ET - Despite 18 hits in yesterdays game, it easily stayed under the total as the Cardinals prevailed 3-2. I won't hesitate to come right back with the over in this afternoon's rematch. The ball tends to carry well in afternoon games at Busch Stadium and the wind is going to be blowing out to left-center in warm day game action in St Louis Saturday. The Phillies are starting Nick Pivetta and he continues to be shaky on the mound. In his most recent start he only allowed 3 earned runs but he did give up 6 hits plus walked 3 in his 5 innings of work. That short start means that Pivetta has not lasted longer than 5 innings in any of his 5 starts this season. Carlos Martinez gets the start for St Louis today and he has good overall numbers on the year but he is just 1-2 with a 5.09 ERA in his 4 day game starts this season. Also, throughout his career, the righty has been tougher on right-handed bats than left-handed sticks and this season has been no different. Martinez has a 2.32 ERA against righties but a 4.42 ERA versus lefties. That is significant because the Phillies meat of the order has been hot and so, though they are righties, I expect them to stay hot against Martinez. Where the lefty/righty match-up helps is in the fact that much of the rest of the Phillies lineup includes switch-hitters and left-handed bats so don't be surprised if they enjoy some success here. With the Cards also likely to pound Pivetta, that sets this one up nicely for a slugfest on a warm afternoon at Busch Stadium with a hitter-friendly breeze. Also note that both of these bullpens have struggled this season and their ERA ranks them each in the lower third of the majors. Look for the over to make it 4-0 in Pivetta's last 4 starts. As a road dog of +125 or more this season, the Phillies are 14-7 to the over. Also, Philadelphia is 42-20 to the over in June games the past 3 seasons combined. The Cardinals are 15-9 to the over this season in their games against teams with a losing record. 10* OVER the total in St Louis in early afternoon action Saturday |
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06-10-17 | Rangers v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 8* OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Texas Rangers @ 12:05 ET - Yesterday's 5-2 Rangers win stayed under the total but the teams did combine for 22 hits. In fact, Texas has now averaged 6 runs and 12.3 hits per game in their last 3 games. Also, the Rangers have reached double digits in hits in each of their last two road games. Saturday's match-up features a pair of southpaws. Even though the Nationals have trended under against lefties this season, they have actually pounded left-handers overall. Washington's .462 slugging percentage against lefties ranks among the tops in the majors. The Nats certainly shouldn't have much trouble with the offerings of Martin Perez. The Rangers southpaw has a 7.80 ERA in his last 3 starts and has struggled on the road, as per usual, this season. Perez is now 4-16 with a 5.15 ERA in the 30 road starts he has made in his career. I am aware of the fact that the Nationals Gio Gonzalez has impressive numbers at home this season but he has walked 14 in the 17 innings spanning his last 3 home starts and the Rangers are hot at the plate right now. The over is 13-6 this season in Texas' games against teams with a winning record. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 in Nationals interleague games on the season and 4-1 in road starts made by the Rangers Perez this season. 8* OVER the total in Washington very early Saturday |
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06-09-17 | Phillies v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in St Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 8:15 ET - The Phillies Jeremy Hellickson is winless in his last 3 starts and has compiled a 7.72 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in these 3 outings. The Cardinals Michael Wacha is winless in his last 3 starts and has compiled an 11.92 ERA and a 2.38 WHIP in these 3 outings. Also, Hellickson gave up 6 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings in his only career start at St Louis. Wacha has given up 4 earned runs or more in 2 of his 3 career starts versus the Phillies. The over is 8-2 in Wacha's 10 starts this season. Also, the over is 15-8 in Cardinals games against teams with a losing record this season. The Phillies are 42-19 to the over in June games the past 2+ seasons combined! The over is also 21-11 in Philadelphia's night games this season and the over is 10-4 when the Phils are a road dog in a range of +125 to +175. Light breeze blowing out toward left-center with hitter-friendly conditions expect on a mild night at Busch Stadium Friday. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in St Louis |
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06-08-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Many books opened this total up at an 8.5 yesterday afternoon but the betting markets are telling the odds makers they don't know what they're doing as the markets have forced the odds makers down to a 7.5 with this total as of Thursday AM. Long-time followers know how I feel about the value of the odds makers compared to the betting markets! The point is that we're getting extreme line value here with this big downward move on this total. Yes I know David Price is on the mound for the BoSox but he has allowed 14 earned runs on 32 hits in 18 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts against the Yankees. Also, all 3 of those outings came after the midway point of last season so it's not like it is ancient history by any stretch of the imagination. Price will be opposed by the Yankees Michael Pineda. The Yanks right-hander has allowed 7 earned runs on 13 hits including 4 homers in his last 2 home starts versus the Red Sox. Also, Pineda comes into this outing off of a rough start in his most recent outing. The over was 5-2 in the Yankees last 7 games before yesterday's game stayed just under the total. The over is 19-10 in Yanks divisional games this season. The over is also 13-7 in Boston's last 20 road games. More of the same here as both pitchers struggled against lineups that have fared very well against them in recent meetings. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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06-08-17 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 3-15 | Win | 105 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 8* OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres @ 3:40 ET - The Diamondbacks Pat Corbin has a 9.00 ERA and a 2.13 WHIP as he has been consistently hit hard in each of his last 3 outings. Also, the Padres will be seeing him for the third time already this season and they have totaled 30 hits in their last 3 road games. San Diego will have Clayton Richard on the mound in this battle of southpaws and he has given up only 6 earned runs (but on 20 hits!) in his last 11 and 2/3 innings of work. In other words, Richard has been on the cusp of getting rocked in each of his last two outings. Also, the southpaw gave up 6 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work in his most recent start at Arizona. That was this season and, in fact, this will already be his 4th start versus the Diamondbacks this season. Arizona is hitting .292 at home this season and averaging 6.2 runs per game at Chase Field. The over is 3-0 in their last 3 games and 4-1 in the Padres last 5 games. Also, when San Diego has been on a losing streak of 3 games or more, the over is 9-3 this season. As for the Diamondbacks, the over is 12-6 in their games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs so far this season. Look for another one here! 8* OVER the total in Arizona |
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06-08-17 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Thursday MLB 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals @ 12:35 ET - The Reds Mike Leake has allowed at least 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts and he allowed 2 homers in each start. The Cardinals Scott Feldman has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts even though he didn't last past the 5 innings in either outing. There has been just 1 under in the last 7 meetings between these teams. The over is 19-7 in Reds divisional games this season and they're seeing Leake for the 3rd time already this season. Though Leake enjoyed success against the Reds in April, he is not in good current form and Cincinnati's lineup is very confident at home as they're averaging 5.7 runs per game at Great American Ball Park this season. The over is 15-7 in Cardinals games against teams with a losing record this season. They will also enjoy success as they're seeing Feldman for a second time this season and he's not pitching well like he was earlier this season. Hitter friendly ball park on a mild afternoon with just light winds not really having an impact and that means the ball will carry very well here. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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06-07-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - I know CC Sabathia has pitched well recently but he has been rocked in 2 of his last 3 starts versus Boston and the Red Sox hitters are very familiar with him. As for Rick Porcello, though he has a decent ERA in his last 3 starts he truly has been getting hit hard and that means we get hidden value here with this over. The total opened up at a 9.5 even though Sabathia has a 2.04 ERA in his last 3 starts and even though Porcello has a 3.65 ERA in his last 2 starts. The key here is Sabathia's likelihood to struggle with the BoSox lineup AND the fact that Porcello has allowed 30 hits in the 19 innings spanning his last 3 starts! The Red Sox right-hander has simply been fortunate he's been able to avoid big damage in those starts but I expect an implosion is imminent for him with the way he's been getting hit so hard. The Yankees have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 9 games. The Red Sox have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 15 games which has encompassed a red hot 11-4 run for Boston. Two hot hitting teams, two starters likely to struggle, and a total moving favorably for our purposes. This is a great spot for a Top Total in my book. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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06-06-17 | Indians v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 runs +100 in Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:40 ET - I know the Indians Mike Clevinger has surprisingly decent numbers since moving into the rotation but, in my opinion, the last 2 starts are a sign of things to come. Clevinger has given up 7 earned runs in the less than 12 innings of work spanning his last 2 starts AND he gave up 2 homers in EACH outing! Now he has to pitch at hitter-friendly Coors Field and this one is offering great line value with the downward line move from an opener of 11. We're getting some value here because, just like Clevinger, Antonio Senzatela is over-rated and he is also showing some signs that a bit of an unraveling is about to take place. Senzatela has just one quality start in his last 4 starts. In the other 3 starts he only worked 5 innings in each start plus allowed 4 innings in each starts. That's a consistent 7.20 ERA in those 3 starts. Senzatela has been fortunate in that he gets a lot of run support and that has also helped lead the way to a 6-2 run to the over in his last 8 starts. The Rockies game Sunday at San Diego stayed under the total but that was just the 2nd over in Colorado's last 8 games. The Rockies have been a surprisingly strong team this season and they have averaged 5.4 runs per game at home this season. The Indians come into this one hot at the plate and have averaged 5.8 runs per game in their last 8 games. Senzatela's most recent home start was a gem but his 4 prior home starts went 4-0 to the over. At hitter-friendly Coors Field, look for the over to improve to 8-3 in Rockies Tuesday games this season. 10* OVER 10.5 runs in Colorado |
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06-06-17 | White Sox v. Rays OVER 7.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 8* OVER 7.5 runs +105 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - Low total posted here because Chris Archer is on the mound for the Rays. I'll step in and take advantage because Jose Quintana has allowed 15 earned runs in the 7 innings spanning his last two starts for the White Sox. Also, Archer has a modest 3.86 ERA in his last 3 starts so it's not like he's been absolutely dominating the opposition of late. Even though Tampa Bay's most recent game stayed under the total it was preceded by 6 straight overs and was also the 8th straight time a Rays game finished with at least 8 runs scored. Of course 8 runs gets us in the money here and Tampa Bay had scored an average of 6 runs per game in their 6 games prior to being held to just 1 run Sunday. As for the ChiSox, 6 of their last 7 games have totaled at least 8 runs and the White Sox have given up 9.8 runs per game in their last 5 games! The Rays are 23-14 to the over in night games this season and 4-1 to the over when playing with a day off. The White Sox are 15-8 this season when playing against a team with a losing record, 5-2 to the over when playing with a day off, and in the 10 games they've played this season where they've entered on a losing streak of 3 games or more, only 1 of the 10 stayed under the total! 8* OVER 7.5 runs +105 in Tampa Bay |
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06-06-17 | Angels v. Tigers OVER 9 | 5-3 | Loss | -121 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 8* OVER 9 runs in Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:10 ET - The Angels will have Jesse Chavez on the mound. This season he is 1-4 with a 5.78 ERA on the road. This is nothing new as, the past 3 seasons combined, he went 6-17 on the road with a 4.60 ERA. The point is, don't be surprised if he struggles again Tuesday night at Comerica Park on a cool evening but on a night when the wind will be blowing out a decent clip and aiding the hitters. As for the Tigers starter tonight, it is Daniel Norris and, overall, I am fan of the southpaw. However, Norris was fortunate he only gave up 2 earned runs in his starts against the Angels last month as he did allowed 7 hits in less than 6 innings of work. Also, Detroit is just 1-3 in the 4 home starts that Norris has made as he has a 5.32 ERA that could easily be even higher as he has a 1.77 WHIP in those 4 home outings. The over is 6-1 in the Tigers last 7 games. Also, prior to an under Sunday, the over was on a 6-3 run in Angels games. The over is 34-18 in Tigers June games the past 2+ seasons and the over is 6-1 this season when Detroit is playing after a day off. The Angels have won all 9 of their Tuesday games this season and their hitting has led the way as Los Angeles is 6-3 to the over in games on Tuesdays this year. Look for more of the same in this one. 8* OVER 9 runs in Detroit |
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06-06-17 | Pirates v. Orioles OVER 9 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 8* OVER 9 runs in Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 ET - I know Ivan Nova has a low ERA on the season but he has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts plus he has been fortunate the damage hasn't been worse as he has been hit quite hard. In his last 6 starts Nova has given up 51 hits in 41 innings of work. Also, Nova has just 13 strikeouts in the 35 innings spanning his last 5 starts. A lot of contact from the hitters could quickly lead to trouble for Nova at hitter-friendly Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Certainly the O's Kevin Gausman is quite likely to also be struggling tonight. The right-hander, dating back to April 18th, has a 6.65 ERA! Like Nova, Gausman has been suffering a "hit parade" against opposition hitters of late as he has given up 35 hits in 21 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 4 starts! The over is 5-1 this season, and 29-14 the last 3 seasons, in Pirates games when they are playing after a day off. Also, the over is 6-2 this season in Bucs road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 this season in Orioles inter-league games. Baltimore has averaged 9.8 hits per game in their last 5 games and Pittsburgh has averaged 10.9 his per game in their last 12 games! Plenty of hits are likely in this one too given the pitching match-up early Tuesday evening. 8* OVER 9 runs in Baltimore |
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06-05-17 | Astros v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB 10* Monday Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros @ 8:15 ET - Despite scoring 7 runs yesterday, the Astros game stayed under the total. Despite allowing 8 runs yesterday, the Royals game stayed under the total. I love situations like these as we now grab the over the very next day even though many will be looking at the under because of yesterday's results. That helps to hold a total in place and I like the value here in this spot because Houston's Mike Fiers has a 5.13 ERA on the season and Kansas City's Ian Kennedy is 0-5 with a 5.12 ERA on the season. Since Kennedy came off of the disabled list he's made 3 outings and none have lasted longer than 5 innings. I know Fiers has surprisingly decent numbers but this is still a guy who got hit at a .280 clip lase season and also is getting hit at a .280 clip again this season. Plus Fiers has given up 18 homers in his 11 starts this season. For the Royals, the over is on a perfect 5-0 run when they are off of a game where they allowed 1 run or less or scored 1 run or less or both (they had a 1-0 game recently). Look for this run of overs to improve to 6-0 Monday as they respond off of a shutout loss. Also, the red hot Astros offense has scored 68 runs in their last 7 games! That's an average of 9.7 runs per game and Houston should stay hot against Kennedy as he has a horrible 12.60 ERA in his last 3 starts. In Astros road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the over is 24-9 the past 2+ seasons! That means we're testing a combined 29-9 mark to the over in this one (including the aforementioned 5-0 involving Royals). 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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06-05-17 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Monday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:10 ET - The Reds are off of a 13-8 home loss to the Braves Sunday afternoon. I am actually completing this write-up Sunday evening prior to the Cardinals match-up with the Cubs but, regardless of that outcome, I have no concerns about the Cards ability to score on Cincinnati's Asher Wojciechowski. The Reds right-hander is off of his first start since 2015 and he allowed 3 homers in just 1 inning of that start. Keep in mind, Wojciechowski has only seen limited MLB action but even in the minors he has struggled. He has compiled an ERA of 4.74 or higher in each of the last 3 seasons at the minor league level! Look for the Cardinals to pound him tonight. Although Carlos Martinez gets the start for the Cardinals and has strong overall numbers this season, the right-hander is just 1-3 with a 4.94 ERA in his 4 road starts this season. The Reds are averaging 5.5 runs per game at home this season and Great American Ball Park is a very hitter-friendly park. The over is 17-6 in Reds divisional games this season. As for the Cardinals, the over is 13-6 this season in their games against teams with a losing record this season. That means we're testing a combined 30-12 mark to the over in this one. I'll gladly step in after the Reds played another wild one yesterday. Their last 7 games have seen an average of 12 runs scored per game. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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06-04-17 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | 7-3 | Win | 105 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Sunday 8* OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 1:35 ET - Chris Sale has not been dominating like he was. The Red Sox southpaw has a 4.73 ERA in his last 5 starts. The Orioles will have Chris Tillman on the mound and he has a 7.90 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Sale has allowed 23 hits in his last 19 and 1/3 innings. Tillman has allowed 21 hits in his last 13 and 2/3 innings. We are getting line value here because of the long-term history of these two hurlers and the fact is that neither one is in good current form right now. Also, these lineups have plenty of familiarity with the starting pitcher they are facing today. Look for a 3rd straight over in Sale's starts. Also, the over is 5-2 in BoSox Sunday games this season and the over is 9-5 this season when the Red Sox are on the road and the posted total is 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is also 5-2 in Orioles Sunday games this season and I look for the over to improve to 3-0 in O's games this season when they are a home dog in a range of +125 to +175. In fact, this game could be an upset today but I don't trust Tillman and that's why I feel the best value is with the over in this one. 8* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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06-04-17 | Giants v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Sunday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants @ 1:35 ET - The Phillies Jeremy Hellickson has allowed 11 earned runs in 11 innings in his last 2 starts and has more walks than strikeouts. This included a home start too. Overall, in May, he struggled badly compared to his fantastic April. As for the Giants, they have Matt Moore on the mound. I know he comes up with strong starts at home. But on the road Moore is 0-4 with a 7.80 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in his 6 outings. Away from home, the over is 5-0-1 in Moore's starts this season. I expect more of the same Sunday as the over improves to 18-10 in San Francisco's road games this season. While neither one of these teams is an offensive juggernaut (nowhere close) the fact is that the Giants offense is better on the road than at home and the Phils lineup has been more productive at home compared to on the road this season. The last 2+ years, the Phillies are 39-17 to the over in June games and I look for another one to fly over here after yesterday's game stayed just under the total. Neither bullpen can be trusted as San Francisco's relievers have combined for a 1.64 WHIP when on the road this season. The Phillies bullpen, as usual, was shaky in closing out yesterday's game. Look for a slugfest with the wind blowing out at Citizens Bank Park this afternoon. 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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06-04-17 | Pirates v. Mets OVER 9 | 11-1 | Win | 110 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Sunday 8* OVER the total in New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 1:10 ET - Rare Mets under yesterday as they have been few and far between this season. In fact, when playing on back to back days this season, the Mets have NEVER had an under on 2 consecutive days. It has yet to happen this season and I don't expect that to change here. The Mets have Tyler Pill on the mound but he's only getting some starts because of Steven Matz and Seth Lugo working to return from elbow injuries. Though he only gave up 1 earned run in his first start, Pill was fortunate as he allowed 6 hits and 3 walks in just 5 and 1/3 innings of work. The Pirates will have Trevor Williams on the mound for this one and he has a 6.92 ERA in his last 3 starts. Even though his recent outings, overall, look solid he has also faced Arizona and Philadelphia at home and those are two of the worst hitting teams in the majors when on the road. The point is, don't be surprised when Williams struggles against the Mets. New York is 20-4 to the over this season in their games against teams with a losing record. Pittsburgh was on a 7-2-1 run to the over before yesterday's game stayed under the total. Look for the big "over trend" for these clubs to resume this afternoon. 8* OVER the total in New York Mets |
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06-03-17 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:15 ET - This is a contrarian play as the total has already moved lower and many will look for an under here because David Price is on the hill for the Red Sox and because of Dylan Bundy's long-term numbers for the Orioles this season. However, Price struggled in a rehabilitation assignment before making his first start of this season and I would not be surprised to see him struggle here on the road after enjoyed success in a 5-inning stint in his first start of this season. The Orioles are very familiar with Price and are facing a southpaw starter for the 4th time in their last 8 games. The O's have won 3 straight games and averaged 6.7 runs per game but they'll be hindered by their own starter in this game. I know Baltimore's Bundy has great numbers this season but he is facing the Red Sox for the 4th time already this season. Boston is averaging 6.3 runs per game in their last 12 games and I expect this to be a breakthrough game for them today against Bundy as the more a team sees a pitcher the more it tends to help that lineup make the proper adjustment. 4 times in 2 months is a lot! This is a contrarian play all the way but I expect the BoSox to bounce back after a miserable day at the plate yesterday. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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06-03-17 | Nationals v. A's OVER 9 | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 8* OVER 9 runs in Oakland A's vs Washington Nationals @ 4:05 ET - The A's are much better at home than on the road at the plate. Even though they only scored 3 runs yesterday that was against Stephen Strasburg. They will certainly fare much better against a struggling Joe Ross. The Nationals right-hander got rocked by a weak Padres lineup in his most recent start. Also, that was at home. On the road this season Ross has a 6.17 ERA. The A's will have Daniel Mengden on the mound for this one. He got absolutely crushed in his first start of this season which was at Cleveland Monday. Will he improve here? History says he will not as he went 2-9 with a 6.50 ERA in his 14 starts last season. That said, let's take advantage of the low total posted here and look for a slugfest on a mild afternoon in Oakland where there the wind will be blowing out toward center. The ball does tend to carry a little better in day games on the West Coast. Look for the over to improve to 6-2 in Washington's inter-league games this season. Also, the over is 15-8 this season in Athletics games against teams with a winning record. 8* OVER the total in Oakland |
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06-03-17 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 7-0 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 8* OVER 9 runs in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 1:05 ET - The Blue Jays have struggled against lefties this season but Jordan Montgomery has been shaky in recent road outings. The Yankees southpaw was fortunate he was only charged with 1 earned run in his most recent road start as he allowed 8 hits in only 4.3 innings of work. In his prior road start Montgomery allowed 5 earned runs in just 5 innings of work. The Jays, at home, will do some damage against a struggling lefty. The Yankees should stay hot at the plate too as they face Toronto's Joe Biagini. The right-hander has a 6.28 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's hardly been "electric" with his offerings and the Yanks have averaged nearly 7 runs per game in their last 6 games and 5 of the 6 have gone over the total. Overall, after yesterday's result, Yankees divisional games this season are now 18-7 to the over. Look for another one here as the over improves to 12-6 in Yanks day games this season. 8* OVER 9 runs in Toronto |
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06-02-17 | Indians v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:15 ET - I know Josh Tomlin just shut down the Royals in Cleveland and has had great success against them this season. However, they're now facing him for the 3rd time in less than 4 weeks and familiarity generally leads to success for the hitters. Tomlin had been rocked in consecutive starts before shutting down KC last week so don't be surprised if he gets roughed up here as his recent struggles resume. As for the Royals, they will have Jason Vargas on the mound and he was very fortunate that he allowed only 2 earned runs to the Indians last week as he gave up 9 hits in less than 6 innings of work. Vargas also got rocked for 6 earned runs in just 4 innings of work in his most recent home start. The Indians have averaged 5.4 runs per game in their last 11 games. The Royals have scored at least 5 runs in 4 of their last 6 games. Kansas City was off yesterday and the over is 7-2 this season when the Royals are playing with a day off between games. This is a bit of a contrarian play considering the recent success Tomlin has had against the Royals but I expect a breakout game from the lineups here on a hitter friendly night at Kaufmann Stadium. They are familiar with the pitchers they are facing in this one. Very familiar in this divisional battle. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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06-02-17 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Friday 8* OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - The Red Sox will have Rick Porcello on the mound. He has a 4.21 ERA on the the season and, surprisingly a 4.74 ERA in his last 3 starts. I say surprisingly because those numbers easily could be much worse. Porcello has been rocked for 31 hits in his last 19 innings on the mound! He has been so fortunate that he has minimized damage in his recent starts but opponents are hitting .306 against him on the season and I look for the Orioles to crush him and they are a team that has a lot of power in their lineup so this is a dangerous match-up for Porcello. The Orioles will have Alec Asher on the mound and he gave up 6 earned runs in just 2 innings in his most recent start. Also, he gave up 2 homers to the Red Sox the last time he started against them plus allowed 7 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work in his only other career versus Boston. The Red Sox have averaged 6.6 runs per game in their last 11 games. The Orioles have scored 17 runs and pounded out 24 hits in their last 2 games. The over is 4-1 in Porcello's last 5 starts. 8* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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06-01-17 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The very first totals opened up at 9.5 on this game and it's now an 8.5 and I love the value we're getting here with two solid lineups. I know CC Sabathia has pitched better of late but he's faced some weak-hitting teams. He now faces a Blue Jays team that has won 8 of its last 9 games and averaged 6 runs per game in the process. Also, Sabathia faced the Blue Jays 4 weeks ago and was rocked for 6 earned runs in just 4 innings of work. I know Toronto's Marco Estrada has been pitching well but the Yankees have a .463 slugging percentage against right-handers and that ranks them as one of the top hitting teams in the majors against right-handed pitching. The Yankees have pounded out 42 hits and 23 runs in their last 4 games and Estrada has given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts versus the Yanks. Though he's pitched well overall I do look for Estrada to struggle again here. Prior to his solid start versus Texas he had allowed 5 earned runs in 2 of his last 4 outings. The over is 16-7 in Yankees divisional games this season. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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06-01-17 | Rockies v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 8* OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies @ 3:40 ET - Yovani Gallardo is winless in 11 games (10 starts) against the Rockies in his career and he has compiled a 5.70 ERA versus Colorado. Though he only allowed 3 earned runs against Boston in his most recent start he did throw 112 pitches just to go 5 and 1/3 innings. He allowed 7 hits plus walked 6 in that outing and Gallardo has now allowed 13 runs (12 earned) in just 9 innings in last 2 starts. Look for him to get rocked here. Even with getting shutout yesterday, Colorado has averaged 6 runs per game their last 13 games. The Mariners also should score plenty here as Kyle Freeland was fortunate to work out of a few jams in his most recent start. The Rockies southpaw allowed 8 hits in 6 innings versus the Cardinals but was fortunate to allow only 3 earned runs. He has given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts. The Mariners have won 4 straight games and have averaged 6.5 runs per game during this 4 game stretch. The M's will be facing a lefty for the 7th time in their last 13 games and that also is a big edge for them at the plate. The over is 11-5 this season in Mariners home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Rockies are 4-1 to the over after getting shutout this season! 8* OVER the total in Seattle |
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06-01-17 | A's v. Indians OVER 8.5 | 0-8 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Oakland A's @ 12:10 ET - Interesting patterns here. The A's Jharel Cotton has alternated good starts with bad starts all season long. After a good start at Yankee Stadium, look for him to get crushed at Cleveland. The Indians have alternated overs and unders dating all the way back to May 20th. After yesterday's game stayed under the total, look for an over here. The Tribe are starting Corey Kluber and he is coming off of the disabled list. He's coming back from a lower back injury and those are very tough on a pitcher. He has a 5.06 ERA on the season and Cotton has a 5.57 ERA on the season. The over is 14-7 this season in A's games against teams with a winning record. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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05-31-17 | Red Sox v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:10 ET - With yesterday's 13-7 win, Boston is now 7-2 in their last 9 games and they've averaged 7.1 runs per game during this hot streak. The Red Sox will have Drew Pomeranz on the mound for this one. The southpaw is facing a team that hits lefties very well and will be facing a left-handed pitcher for the 3rd straight day. The White Sox have a .462 slugging percentage against lefties this season and that ranks #1 out of all 30 MLB teams. Also, with scoring 7 runs yesterday, they ChiSox have averaged 6.2 runs per game their last 11 games. You've got two lineups here that have plenty of confidence and, in addition to Pomeranz getting rocked, look for Mike Pelfrey to also struggle. I know that Pelfrey has pitched surprisingly well in his last two starts but, prior to that, he had a 5.70 ERA with more walks than strikeouts in his first 5 starts this season. Let's not forget that Pelfrey got hit at a .332 clip last season and has not finshed an MLB season with an opponents batting average of less than .300 since the 2011 season! Now he faces a strong Boston lineup that got to him for 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his only start against them last season. The most recent start for Pomeranz stayed under the total but, prior to that, the over was 3-0 in his last 3 starts. As for Pelfrey, I look for this start to move the over to 3-0 in his last 3 outings. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game |
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05-31-17 | Cubs v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 8* OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs @ 3:40 ET - I know the Cubs are slumping, struggling to score runs, and looking to avoid back to back sweeps on the West Coast. However, the Padres Luis Perdomo should bring out the best in them today! The San Diego right-hander has a 7.11 ERA in his 5 home starts this season. In his last 3 starts overall, Perdomo has an 8.40 ERA. He was rocked in his most recent home outing and I know Perdomo gets a lot of ground balls but that doesn't change the fact he was hit a .310 clip last season and opponents are hitting .295 against him so far this season. The Cubs lineup will get back on track here but the Cubbies issue today will also be their starting pitcher. Jake Arrieta has a great long-term reputation of course but he has now allowed at least 4 earned runs in EACH of his last 5 road starts! He's struggling away from Wrigley Field and the Padres lineup has extra confidence right now as San Diego has won 6 of their last 9 games and averaged 5 runs per game in the 6 victories. The over is 4-1 this season (and 22-10 the last 2+ seasons) when the Cubs are a road favorite of -175 or more. The Padres, the last 2+ seasons, are 26-11 to the over as a home dog in a range of +125 to +175. Look for more of the same this afternoon! 8* OVER the total in San Diego |
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05-31-17 | Reds v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -122 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds @ 12:35 ET - With yesterday's game getting over the total, the Reds are now 8-2 to the over this season when they are a road dog of +125 to +175 and the Blue Jays are 10-3 to the over in interleague games this season. The Reds are also 12-6 to the over in day games this season. Tim Adleman gets the start for Cincinnati and he is off of a great start but it came against the worst team in MLB as he got the win at Philadelphia. Prior to that victory, a game that stayed under the total, the over had been 4-2 in his 6 starts and he had given up 19 earned runs in the 22 innings spanning his 5 prior starts! The Blue Jays will have Mike Bolsinger on the mound and he has more walks than strikeouts in his 4 starts this season. When he has found the plate he has been hit hard too. Bolsinger has given up 13 runs (11 earned) on 20 hits in the 14 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. All 3 of those starts went over the total and this should make it 4 in a row today in what is likely to be his final start. The only reason Bolsinger is starting today is because Francisco Liriano is out but he'll be back soon. Until then, Bolsinger's recurring struggles as a starter continue. 8* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-30-17 | Astros v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - The Twins Jose Berrios has been fantastic but he did allow 3 homers in his recent start and the wind will be blowing out toward right field in tonight's game. That certainly could be an issue for the Astros starter tonight. Michael Fiers has given up 18 homers in his 9 starts this season and, in fact, had been relegated to the bullpen recently. However, he immediately is right back in the rotation because Charlie Morton went on the 10-day disabled list. Yesterday's game got completely nuts and I expect this could turn into another wild one. Fiers has just been a mess this season for the Astros and he has a 6.37 ERA on the road this season with only 1 of those 5 starts resulting in an under. Although Berrios has pitched surprisingly well, the Astros have reached double digits in hits in 4 straight games now. The Twins 15 inning marathon loss Sunday used up the bullpen and then they got exposed yesterday as they allowed 14 runs in the final 2 innings of Monday's loss. Berrios has been getting a lot of strikeouts but that also means the pitch counts go up and the Twins pen could be exposed again tonight. The over is 23-9 in the last 2+ seasons in Astros road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the over is 37-22 in the last 2+ seasons in Twins home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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05-30-17 | Brewers v. Mets OVER 9 | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 8* OVER the total in New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:10 ET - Zach Davies has shown a pattern in his young career and that is that he pitches better in day games than at night. He simply is proven to be much easier to hit under the lights. This season has been no exception as Davies has been hit at a .344 clip in his night starts. The Mets won yesterday's game 4-2 and are averaging 5.8 runs per game in their last 9 games. Yesterday's game was a rare under for New York as the over is 31-11 in Mets games on the season! Look for the over trend to quickly resume here as the Mets should pound Davies while their own starting pitcher certainly has some question marks of his own. Tyler Pill will be making his first ever MLB start and he doesn't get a lot of strikeouts. Getting K's is a key to shutting down the Brewers and even though Ryan Braun is out, the Brewers still have plenty of big sticks that can do some damage. Pill has been better in the minors this season but he's still taking a big step up here and he did get hit at a .292 clip in the minors 2 years ago and a .279 clip last year. He's been in the minors since 2011 and I look for him to struggle in his first ever MLB start. 8* OVER the total in New York Mets |
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05-30-17 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:05 ET - I know that Robbie Ray has some fantastic recent numbers for the Diamondbacks and that the Pirates Ivan Nova has a low ERA on the season. However, there is plenty of reason to believe this one flies over the low total as those above factors are also giving us great line value here on a night when temperatures are mild at PNC Park and a gentle breeze will be blowing out to left field. The fact is that these pitchers matched up on the 14th in Arizona and there were 4 homers hit in that game. Also, even though Ray is off of back to back strong starts since then, he faced a weak-hitting San Diego team and a Milwaukee team known for being free swingers at the plate. As for Pittsburgh's Nova, he has allowed 28 hits in the 21 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. In other words, he has been fortunate that he hasn't allowed more runs during this stretch and I expect him to get hit hard here. The over is 3-0 in Nova's last 3 starts and 3-1 in Ray's last 4 starts. The over is also 13-8 in Pirates home games this season and I'll take advantage of the low total posted on this one. 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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05-29-17 | Mariners v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 6-5 | Push | 0 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners @ 3:10 ET - The Rockies have been heating up at the plate. With yesterday's 8-4 win over the Cardinals, Colorado has now scored an average of 6.8 runs per game during their current 7-3 hot streak their last 10 games. Monday the Rockies take on the Mariners and Seattle got back on track with a 5-0 win at Boston yesterday. The M's have been struggling at the plate recently but a big win like that as well as now a day game at hitter-friendly Coors Field is the kind of sequence that can rejuvenate a dangerous lineup. The Mariners do indeed have solid hitters up and down their lineup and they should have no problems with the offerings of Tyler Chatwood. The Rockies right-hander has a 6.18 ERA at home this season. He also had a 6.12 ERA at home last season. It's one of the drawbacks of being a Rockies pitcher. Chatwood has seen first hand how this home park can be so tough on a pitcher and he has a huge road/home dichotomy as he has been tremendous away from home but struggled mightily at Coors Field. I don't expect the Mariners Sam Gaviglio to find Coors Field to his liking either. He's making just the 3rd start of his MLB career and in the rookie's first two starts he has a total of just 3 strikeouts. Remember, contact at Coors Field is not a good thing so if he can't mow hitters down here it's likely to be a long afternoon for him. The over is on a 29-17 run in Mariners inter-league games the past 3 seasons and I look for a slugfest in this one. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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05-29-17 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9 | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Monday 8* OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 1:05 ET - These teams have gone over the total in all 6 of their meetings this season. Also, both teams had games that flew over the total yesterday. This snapped a trend of lower scoring games for each club and I expect some carry over from yesterday's games right into today and a 7th straight over in their head to head match-ups. The Orioles got pummeled at Houston but will be back home where they have won 15 of their last 21 against the Yankees. The Yanks are back on the road after taking 2 of 3 at home against Oakland but the Yankees are averaging 5 runs per game away from home this season. Also, New York has averaged 7.6 runs per game in their 6 games against the Orioles this season. Dylan Bundy gets the start for the Orioles and he was fortunate to escape some jams in his last start and did allow 6 earned runs in 6 innings in his prior start. Also, the Yankees are familiar with him from facing him twice late last season. The Orioles will be facing Jordan Montgomery for the 2nd time already this season and the southpaw is off of a solid start but allowed 9 earned runs in 11 innings in his 2 prior starts. The O's are 8-5 to the over in day games this season and 60-45 to the over the last 3 seasons combined in afternoon games. The Yankees are 11-5 to the over in day games this season and 14-8 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record this season. 8* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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05-28-17 | Rays v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 2:10 ET – The Rays Alex Cobb has not been the same pitcher since Tommy John surgery. He’s been inconsistent and about every other outing has been a rough outing for Cobb since he returned to the majors. Why expect a “rough one” here? Well one thing that is consistent about Cobb is that he has had a tendency throughout his entire career to struggle more on the road than at home. Also, since the Tommy John surgery, Cobb has seemed particularly vulnerable to left-handed batters and the Twins lineup will be loaded with left-handed bats and switch-hitters for this one. Also, the wind will be blowing out to center at a good clip on a mild afternoon in Minneapolis Sunday. In other words, all the proper variables are in place for Cobb to get rocked here. He is getting hit at a .271 clip in day games this season and has a 6.04 ERA against left-handed batters on the season. The Twins will have Kyle Gibson on the mound here and he was rocked for 6 runs in just 5 innings in his first start back after being recalled from the minors. In other words, his struggles continued even after being sent down to the minors! Simply put, Gibson just can’t “get right” this season and he has an 8.62 ERA in his 7 starts at the MLB level. Also, Tampa Bay has plenty of hitters who have enjoyed success against Gibson and, the way he’s throwing right now, he’s particularly vulnerable. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Gibson’s last 4 starts. The last 3 seasons combined the over is 35-21 in Twins home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. As for the Rays, they entered Saturday’s action having gone 17-8 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Look for more of the same on Sunday. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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05-28-17 | Rangers v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers @ 1:05 ET – Andrew Cashner gets the start for the Rangers here and he is 1-4 this season in his 8 starts and has more walks than strikeouts on the year. That’s always a bad sign for a hurler and it’s only a matter of time before he gets really crushed. Already this season, Cashner has faltered quite often on the road with an 0-3 mark and 4.43 ERA away from home on the year. The Blue Jays will have Joe Biagini on the mound for this one and he has not been able to work deep into any of his starts since he moved into the rotation. The other concern for him is that he has struggled at times with command of his pitches in his last two starts. Biagini has allowed 9 runs (8 earned) in just 8.1 innings of work spanning his last two starts. Look for more struggles here as Biagini again fails to log more than 5 innings. That certainly could expose the bullpen of the Blue Jays and those relievers entered Saturday with a combined 4.63 ERA in home games this season. The Rangers entered Saturday’s action with a bullpen that has a combined 6.69 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in their road games this season! Entering Saturday, the Blue Jays were on a 7-3 run to the over in their last 10 games. The Rangers entered Saturday on an 8-4 run to the over in their past 12 games. Also, Texas had gone 7-4 to the over in day games this season prior to Saturday’s match-up. While two solid starters were on the mound in Saturday’s game, the Sunday slated starting pitchers features a much more favorable match-up for the hitters! 8* OVER the total in Toronto |
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05-27-17 | Mets v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 105 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game went over the total and the over is now an incredible 30-10 in Mets games this season. New York's games just keep finding their way over the total and yesterday's got there despite Pittsburgh scoring only 1 run in that game. Look for the Pirates lineup to get right back on track as they had scored 26 runs on 42 hits in their 3 prior games. The over is an insane 25-5 in Mets night games this season and 18-3 in their games against teams with a losing record. As for the Pirates, the over is 10-4 in their home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs so far this season. Though this pitching match-up may not seem conducive to an over, note that the Mets Zack Wheeler has not pitched in a week and he was already having issues with command of his pitches. He had walked 4 or more in 2 of his last 3 starts. The extra time off won't help here. I know he had asked the team for an extra day but then it turned into 2 extra days off and I would not be surprised to see him struggle here. As for the Pirates Gerrit Cole, I know he has great overall numbers but he got rocked by the Braves in his most recent start and now faces a Mets team that has scored 60 runs in their last 11 games! Overall, on the season the Mets are averaging 6.2 runs per contest in their road games. Also, the Mets bullpen has been horrible on the road this season. They entered Friday's action having a 7.17 ERA away from home so far this year. Wheeler has made 8 starts this season and he has not had a single one of those 8 result in an under! Look for the strong high-scoring trend in Mets games to continue here. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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05-27-17 | Royals v. Indians OVER 8.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals @ 4:10 ET - The Royals have had their share of issues at the plate this season but last night's 6-4 win bring KC to 6-6 in their last 12 games and Kansas City has averaged 6 runs per game in the 6 wins. That said, they should stay hot at the plate against a struggling Danny Salazar. The Royals just faced the right-hander early this month and they hit him hard and he also has been struggling ever since. Salazar has an ugly 8.77 ERA in his last 3 starts and he has allowed 8 homers in his last 4 starts. The Royals will counter with Jason Vargas. I know the southpaw has had some impressive starts this season and that has given him good overall numbers. However, the lefty has truly struggled of late and has given up 9 earned runs in the 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts. The Indians have scored 8 runs in each of their last two games against a left-handed starter. Overall, Cleveland has averaged 5.1 runs per game in their last 11 games. With yesterday's game totaling 10 runs, the over is now 10-4 this season in Indians home games where they are a favorite of -125 to -175. Their record in those games the last 3 seasons combined is 60-37 to the over! The over is also a perfect 3-0 in Salazar's last 3 starts. The Indians struggled against Vargas when they faced him in KC earlier this month but they are likely to fare much better this time around as they get him at home in Cleveland. Also, Vargas has labored a bit in his last two starts. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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05-27-17 | Rangers v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 8* UNDER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers @ 1:05 ET - The Jays and Rangers got their sticks going a bit in yesterday's game but that was all about the pitching match-up. This one should prove to be all about the pitching match-up as well and that means some quiet sticks early Saturday afternoon. The under is 6-1 in the last 7 starts that Yu Darvish has a 2.31 ERA in his last 6 starts and continues to pile up the strikeouts. The Blue Jays will have Marco Estrada on the mound for this one and he has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 7 of his 10 starts this season. Like Darvish, Estrada has been piling up the strikeouts. The Rangers entered yesterday's action hitting just .218 this season on the road. The Jays entered yesterday's action having averaged just 3.8 runs per contest in their home games this season. The under is 6-1-1 in the 8 starts Darvish has made against Toronto in his career. The under is 4-2 in the 6 starts Estrada has made against Texas in his career. Entering yesterday's action, the under was 17-8 this season in Rangers games against teams with a losing record. Only 6 of the Blue Jays 16 days games this season have resulted in an over. This one shapes up to be a pitchers duel. 8* UNDER the total in Toronto |
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05-26-17 | Angels v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:10 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Daniel Straily has put together some impressive numbers this season. However, he has been rocked in each of his last two starts against the Angels and that includes a recent one, last August, where he gave up 4 homers in less than 3 innings of work. After getting shutout yesterday at Tampa Bay, I look for the Halos sticks to get back on track Friday. The last time they got shutout (May 20th) their next game flew over the total with 12 runs scored. Having had success against Straily, the Angels step into the batters box with plenty of confidence in this one. Certainly the Marlins sticks should have no trouble with the offerings of Jesse Chavez in this one. The Angels right-hander has an 8.18 ERA in his two career starts at Miami and he was rocked in both outings. Chavez also comes into this start in questionable form as he's allowed 4 homers and 7 earned runs in his last 2 road starts spanning just 11 and 1/3 innings! The Marlins were off yesterday and they are 4-0-1 to the over this season the 5 times they were coming off of a day off. Also, the over is 8-3 this season in Miami's home games where they are price in a range of -125 to +125 and the over is 22-8 this season in Marlins night games! The Marlins most recent game (Wednesday) stayed under the total but that was their first under in a week. Look for that recent hot "over trend" to resume Friday evening. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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05-25-17 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Total Smash - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:10 ET - The home runs continue to fly at Miller Park and yesterday's over was the 8th in the Brewers last 11 games (both home and away). Overall, Milwaukee continues to be an "over team" and that shouldn't change today with Zach Davies on the mound. The right-hander has seen all 5 of his home starts result in overs this season and he has a compiled a 6.93 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in those outings! The Diamondbacks come into this game having scored an average of 6 runs per game during their red hot 8-1 run their last 9 games. Arizona won't slow down here as they take advantage of a pitcher (Davies) whom has given up 37 hits in less than 25 innings of work at home on the season. As for the Brewers sticks, I look for them to get to Robbie Ray early and often in this one. The Dbacks southpaw piled up strikeouts (but also gave up 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work) in his lone career appearance at Miller Park and that was just last season. Ray is coming off of a strong start but previously allowed 9 earned runs in 9 innings spanning his last 2 starts as both walks and home runs were an issue for him. The over is a perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts and the Diamondbacks, overall, are 23-13 to the over the last 3 seasons combined when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Brewers are 18-7 to the over in home games this season and also 7-3 to the over in their games against left-handed starters. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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05-25-17 | Pirates v. Braves OVER 9 | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 8* OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 12:10 ET - Mild temps, afternoon game, wind blowing out to left at a good clip. Also, Pirates riding the momentum of last night's come from behind win as they rallied late to tie it and then won it in extra innings with an offensive explosion in the top of the 10th. As for the Braves, even with yesterday's loss, they've still won 9 of their last 13 games and have scored 5 runs or more in 8 of their last 10 games. That said, I like the line value here on this total as each team should get to at least 4 runs and we've got a total of 9. The Pirates have scored at least 4 runs in 9 of their last 12 games. Pittsburgh has Ivan Nova on the mound and he has impressive overall numbers on the season but he's been getting in a lot of jams in recent starts and he's fortunate the damage hasn't been worse. Nova has allowed 35 hits in 25 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 4 starts. Amazingly he's given up only 12 earned runs during this stretch but that is helping to give us some line value here as he's pitching worse than his ERA shows. As for Bartolo Colon of the Braves, his struggles are well-documented this season but he's been fortunate to allow only 3 earned runs in his last 2 starts even though he was crushed for 14 hits in 9 and 1/3 innings. Once again this is another statistical anomaly that is helping to give us line value with this total. Each of Nova's last 2 starts have gone over the total while Colon's most recent start stayed under but the over was on a 6-1 run in Colon's 7 prior starts. His next over streak begins here. The Pirates are 4-1 to the over this season in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Braves are 10-3 to the over this season in home games where their money line ranges from -125 to +125 and that is the case in this pick'em game for very early Thursday afternoon. 8* OVER in Atlanta |
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05-24-17 | Royals v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - Not a lot of hitting in the first two games of this series but that changes today in the 3rd game of this 4-day set. The Royals will have Jason Hammel on the mound. He has given up 12 runs (11 earned) on 22 hits (including 4 homers) in his last 2 starts spanning 13 innings. The most recent of those two outings was against the Yankees so that means another bad start is likely here as the Yanks get a quick 2nd look at Hammel. The Royals right-hander has a 7.20 ERA with a horrible 2.07 WHIP in his 3 road starts this season. The Yankees will have Luis Severino on the mound for this one and he has struggled in his last two outings. The right-hander has solid numbers on the season but he's fading recently. Severino has given up 11 hits and 6 walks in the 7 and a third innings spanning his last two starts. Another note here is that if Hammel gets knocked out early, the Royals bullpen has a 6.12 ERA on the road this season. The over is 3-1 in Royals road games where their money line is in a range of +175 to +250. The over is a perfect 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 games that Severino has started. Also, the over is 16-8 this season in Yankees games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. When off of a loss this season, the over has gone 11-6 in Yanks game. 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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05-24-17 | White Sox v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago White Sox @ 3:40 ET - Jose Quintana is off of a strong start for the White Sox but could struggle in this afternoon affair. Not only are the Diamondbacks one of the top hitting teams in the league in home games this season, Quintana is only 7-16 in road starts the last 3 seasons combined. Some guys like pitching at night more than day games and Quintana is one of those guys whether he would admit to it or not. The results don't lie. After pitching exceptionally well in his most recent start, Quintana's day game struggles resume. He is 1-4 with a 5.35 ERA in day games this season and two years ago he went 0-5 with a 5.49 ERA in day games! Last season's results were not as dramatic but he did fare worse under the sun compared to under the lights! Quinana will be opposed by Randall Delgado today and he is a reliever. Truly today's game is expected to be a "bullpen start" for the Diamondbacks as they'll be forced to use a number of arms. Delgado is unlikely to go deep into this game and he hasn't started a game since 2015. Yesterday's game was 4-3 by the top of the 3rd inning but inexplicably died out after that and the game ended 5-4. Look for the lineups to again get an early jump start today but this time they sustain it. In home games where their line ranges from -125 to +125 the Diamondbacks are 8-3 to the over this season and 59-34 to the over long-term. Yesterday's under was just the 4th for the ChiSox in their last 14 games. The odds makers opened this one up at a 10 and it then dropped to a 9.5 and the odds makers have it right. Look for double digits in this one. 8* OVER the total in Arizona |
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05-23-17 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 105 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - This total has dropped from an opener of 9.5 to a 9 and could even be headed toward 8.5 in some shops. Either way, this is opening up great line value on the over. I am well aware of Rick Porcello's long-term success at Fenway Park. However, the Rangers are 11-1 in their last 12 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in these dozen games. Also, Porcello has allowed 9 runs (7 earned) on 18 hits in just 12 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts. Also the last two times Porcello has faced the Rangers as a host (including last season at Fenway Park) he has been rocked for a combined 12 runs (11 earned) on 24 hits in just 11 and 1/3 innings of work! Porcello is likely to need plenty of run support from his offense today and he is likely to get it! Texas is starting Andrew Cashner and he is off of back to back strong starts but those were at home and against two teams that are struggling to score runs this season - Oakland and Philadelphia. Now he's on the road where he has had some issues with command of his pitches and Cashner is facing a Red Sox team that will build off of a huge 12-run outburst that wrapped up their road trip Sunday. The Rangers are 5-1 to the over in their last 6 games against right-handed starters. The Red Sox are on an overall 12-2 run to the over in their last 14 games. Texas is 7-3 to the over this season in their games against teams with a winning record and the Red Sox are on a 7-0 run to the over when they're off of a win! 10* OVER the total in Boston early Tuesday evening |
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05-23-17 | Royals v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - The Royals Danny Duffy had a strong start versus the Yankees last week. However, that start was in Kansas City and the southpaw now faces the Yanks in the Bronx where they are hitting .279 on the season and averaging 6.3 runs per game. Keep in mind, before Duffy shut down the Yankees last week, he had given up 15 earned runs on 33 hits in the 23 and 1/3 innings spanning his four prior starts. As for the Yankees starter, Jordan Montgomery, he got rocked at Kansas City last week. The left-hander has now allowed 9 earned runs in the 11 innings spanning his last 2 starts. The over is 3-1 in his home starts this season and the Royals have had just 1 under in Duffy's 4 road starts this season. The over is 16-7 this season in Yankees games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs and there is great line value here considering the Royals should have no trouble with a quick second look at Montgomery while the Yankees fare much better at home against Duffy. 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees early Tuesday evening |
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05-22-17 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 14-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles game stayed under the total yesterday but 4 of their 6 prior games had gone over the total and Baltimore averaged 7 runs per game during that stretch. Look for the hot hitting to resume today after the O's were held to just 1 run yesterday. Facing the Twins Kyle Gibson should help tremendously in that regard. Gibson is winless on the season and has an 8.20 ERA and 1.94 WHIP as a starter on the year. Each of his last three starts have gone over the total. The Twins should also enjoy plenty of success at the plate tonight as they will be able to "tee off" against a struggling hurler too. Ubaldo Jimenez gets the start for the Orioles and each of his 3 home starts this season have gone over the total. Overall, in his 3 most recent starts, Jimenez has given up 2 homers in all 3 starts while compiling an 8.44 ERA in these outings. The Twins played a double header yesterday and both games went over the total. The over is now 10-6 in Minnesota's games this month and the over in May Twins games is now 43-24 the last 2+ years. Look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Gibson's last 4 starts and 4-0 this season in Jimenez home starts. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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05-21-17 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Bulldogs Best - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 4:40 ET - Another blowout win for the Dbacks yesterday and they've now won 5 straight games and the over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games. The Padres have been slumping but they have had just 2 unders in their last 9 games and I expect them to enjoy success against Zach Godley this afternoon. I know Godley has surprisingly impressive overall numbers so far this season but he's only made 3 starts and he struggled the most in his start against the Padres. In fact, in his last 2 starts against San Diego he has given up 6 earned runs in 10 innings of work. Godley is not the only one with a match-up "issue" here as the Padres Clayton Richard has struggled against Arizona. The San Diego southpaw has given up 14 runs (11 earned) on 23 hits in the less than 15 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts against the Dbacks. Also, Richard comes into this start having allowed 11 earned runs in the 11 innings spanning his last two home starts. He simply continues to get hit hard time and time again. The over is 3-1 in Richard's home starts this season and 2-1 in all of Godley's starts this year. The over is 8-2 in Padres games this season when they are on a losing streak of 3 games or more. The over is 23-12 the last three seasons combined when Arizona is on a winning streak of 3 games or more. 10* OVER the total in the San Diego |
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05-21-17 | Brewers v. Cubs OVER 10 | 6-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 2:20 ET - Mild afternoon in Chicago with the wind blowing out toward center or right-center for this game at a pretty good clip. That will make it a very hitter-friendly afternoon game at Wrigley Field Sunday. The Cubs Jake Arrieta has a 6.89 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, Arrieta has a 5.30 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Brewers and they've gotten to him for 3 homers in his last 2 starts against them at Wrigley. Chase Anderson gets the start for Milwaukee here and he has cooled off, as expected, after a red hot April. Anderson has given up 22 hits in less than 15 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts and with the Cubs powerful lineup he's likely to struggle here. The Cubs have averaged 7 runs per game in their last 4 games. The Brewers have been one of the hottest teams in baseball and they've averaged 6.6 runs per game in their last 11 games. The over is 8-0 this season in Cubs home games where they are a favorite in a range of -175 to -250. Also, the Cubs are 13-6 to the over this season when off of a loss. Milwaukee is 16-8 to the over this season when off of a win. Also, when on a winning streak of 3 games or more, the Brewers are 22-11 to the over the past 3 seasons combined including 5-1 to the over this season! 8* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game Sunday afternoon |
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05-21-17 | Angels v. Mets OVER 8 | 12-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 8* OVER the total in New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels @ 1:10 ET - Mild afternoon in New York with the wind blowing out to left field. I know these teams scored 12 runs yesterday without getting a lot of hits but there should be more hitting today with a few homers quite possible as well. The Angels Jesse Chavez is 0-3 on the road this season and he has allowed about 1 homer per start this season while the Mets Tom Milone has a 6.00 ERA and ridiculously bad 2.00 WHIP in his home starts this season. Also, on the year, the Mets southpaw has given up 5 homers in his 5 starts. None of Milone's 5 starts this season have resulted in an under and I like the line value here with this O/U moving down to an 8. The Mets have had just 2 unders in their last 11 games while the Angels are on a 3-1 run to the over and have scored 5 runs or more in 4 of their last 5 games. The Mets are 21-7 to the over in their games against right-handed starters this season and they are an incredible 14-2 to the over in their games against teams with a losing record. 8* OVER the total in New York Mets |
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05-20-17 | Indians v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Saturday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Cleveland Indians @ 4:10 ET - Mike Fiers of the Astros has been giving up tons of homers. Fiers has already allowed 16 homers this season including 8 in his last 3 starts! The Indians are averaging 5.8 runs per game in their last 5 games. On the season they've averaged 5 runs per game (plus have a slugging percentage of .433) against right-handed starters. They should pound Fiers as his struggles continue. The right-hander gave up 2 homers to the Indians when he faced them earlier this season and he has truly regressed since then. As for the Cleveland hurler this afternoon it will be Mike Clevinger on the mound and he's been struggling to find the plate in his first two start this season. With 9 walks in just 10 innings, Clevinger has been getting himself into jams. That spells trouble against an Astros team that has averaged 5.4 runs per game against right-handed pitchers while hitting .278 against them on the season. Even with last night's loss, Houston is still 9-2 their last 11 games and they've averaged 6 runs per game during this hot streak. Look for more of the same here! The over is 4-1-1 in Fiers last 6 starts. Also, the over is 7-3 this season when the Astros are off of a loss. The Indians had recorded 4 straight overs before yesterday's game stayed just under the total. These two solid lineups make up for that one today! 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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05-20-17 | Red Sox v. A's OVER 8.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach Saturday MLB 8* OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Boston Red Sox @ 4:05 ET - The ball carries a little better in day games on the West Coast. Last night's 3-2 A's win stayed under the total but the over is 11-3 this season in Oakland's games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Red Sox have had 12 road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs and only 33% (4) of those games have resulted in an under so far this season. I am going to take advantage of the low total here because Boston crushed Sean Manaea for 8 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work when they faced him last season. Also, the Oakland southpaw has struggled in his 2 most recent starts. As for the A's facing the BoSox Drew Pomeranz for the first time, I expect Oakland to enjoy sucess here. They are facing a left-handed starter for a 2nd straight day and they have a solid .444 slugging percentage against southpaw pitchers this season. Also, Pomeranz is certainly no Chris Sale - whom the Athletics faced last night. Pomeranz has allowed 8 earned runs in his last two starts and those outings have spanned just 7 innings. Also, the Boston southpaw is 0-2 with a 7.72 ERA in road outings this season. The A's have averaged 5 runs per game in their last 7 games and the Red Sox have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 12 games. 8* OVER the total in Oakland |
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05-19-17 | Indians v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - This total has dropped from a 9 to an 8.5 and in some books as of mid-day gameday you don't even have to lay any juice when going over the 8.5 total. This is a fantastic value because neither one of these starting pitchers should be expected to enjoy much success here. Cleveland is starting Trevor Bauer and he has struggled this season including a 7.87 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his last three starts. Also, in his last two starts against the Astros, Bauer has given up 9 earned runs in 11 innings and he allowed 4 homers in those two outings. Houston will have Charlie Morton on the mound and he piled up the strikeouts in his most recent start but he has walked 4 batters in each of his last two starts even though he didn't complete 6 innings in either outing. The Indians come into this game having averaged 6 runs per game in their last 4 games and also having scored at least 6 runs in each of their past two road games. The Astros also come in red hot as they have won 9 of their last 10 games and have averaged 6.3 runs per game in those 10 games. The Astros game Wednesday stayed under but previously they had not had an under in 4 straight games and the Indians do come into this one having gone over the total in 4 straight games. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 this season when the Astros are playing after a day off. A lot of line value here because these pitchers have the "attention" of the betting markets right now and both teams do have solid bullpens. But these lineups have plenty of pop at the plate and have been hot. That's why I am being a contrarian here and looking for a high-scoring match-up. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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05-19-17 | Phillies v. Pirates OVER 9 | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach Friday MLB 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:05 ET - Pittsburgh is still on the warm side of the late spring cold front that is impacting areas to the west. That means good conditions tonight for the hitters and there is plenty of reason to believe both starting pitchers struggle in this one. The Phillies Jeremy Hellickson has some impressive numbers on the season but he has allowed 7 homers in his last 3 starts! The Pirates Trevor Williams has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts at the MLB level and those 3 outings have spanned just 12 innings. Hellickson's 7 homers allowed have come in less than 14 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts. The over is 7-2 in the Phillies last 9 games and 4-2 in the Pirates last 6 games. The over is 15-7 in Phils road games this season, 16-7 in their night games, and 17-7 when they are off of a loss! As for the Pirates, the over is 10-6 in their home games and 11-5 when they are off of a win. The Phillies have scored 4 runs or more in 7 of their last 9 games. The Pirates have scored at least 4 runs in 6 straight games. Keep in mind, a 4-4 game guarantees us of no worse than a 5-4 final and I look for tonight's game to reach double digits in runs. 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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05-18-17 | Phillies v. Rangers OVER 10 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 2:05 ET - This is a contrarian play because I am happy to go with the over even though the Rangers Martin Perez has a low ERA this season and the under is 6-2 in his starts and the under is 2-1 in Nick Pivetta's starts. The fact is that Perez has a 3.89 ERA this season but 1.68 WHIP and that means he has been playing with fire far too often. When a pitcher is doing that they are eventually going to get burned. The Phillies have averaged 5 runs per game in their games against left-handed starters and Perez has allowed 23 hits in his last 18 innings. As for the Phils Pivetta, he has been rocked for 23 hits (including 5 homers) in less than 15 innings of work spanning his 3 starts this season. The young right-hander also walked 4 in his most recent start even though he couldn't even complete 5 innings. Pivetta is facing a Texas lineup that has been red hot as the Rangers have won 8 straight games and averaged 6.4 runs per game during this 8-0 run. The Phillies are 9-3 to the over this season in road games where they are an underdog in a range of +125 to +175. Also, Philadelphia is 29-13 to the over in interleague games the past 3 seasons combined. The Phils sticks have been a little quiet so far in this series but they came to Texas having scored 5.7 runs per game in their 6 prior games. Look for Perez, who has been ultra hittable of late, to bring out the best in the Phillies sticks today. The Rangers, against a struggling rookie hurler, should stay red hot at the plate too. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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05-18-17 | Nationals v. Pirates OVER 9 | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals @ 12:35 ET - Wind will be blowing out to left on a warm afternoon at PNC Park. The over is 5-1 in Tyler Glasnow's starts for the Pirates this season and he has a 7.98 ERA on the year. The over is 6-1 in Tanner Roark's starts for the Nationals this season and he has allowed 4 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts. With the Pirates 6-1 win yesterday they have averaged 5 runs per game in winning 3 of their last 4 games. For the Nationals, that was a rare 'off performance' at the plate yesterday but they had averaged 5.4 runs per game in their 9 prior games and will bounce right back as they face a struggling hurler in hitter-friendly conditions this afternoon. Glasnow has simply been awful for the Bucs. As for Roark, he's only averaged 5 and 1/3 inning in his last 4 starts and that will expose a struggling Nationals bullpen as Nats relievers have particularly had issues away from home this season. 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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05-17-17 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 11.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:05 ET - I won with the over in this match-up yesterday and I expect another slugfest today. Last night 7 homers were hit and, once again, it will be another warm evening at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out toward left field. Even though the Reds Scott Feldman has surprisingly decent numbers so far this season, the veteran right-hander pitches to contact (only 7 strikeouts in the 16 innings spanning his last two starts) and contract = trouble when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field. As for the Cubs pitcher in this one, Kyle Hendricks is getting the call and he has solid numbers this season but actually has a 4.11 ERA at home that could be even higher as he has a 1.57 WHIP in home games. The last time he faced the Reds he allowed 4 earned runs in only 5 innings of work. The over is now an incredible 29-10 in match-ups between these clubs in recent seasons. Also, the over is 13-4 this season in Cincinnati's games when they are off of a loss. Also, when on a losing streak of 3 games or more, the Reds have seen the over go a perfect 5-0 this season! The Cubs are 11-6 to the over this season and their lineup is full of power while the Reds also have a dangerous lineup with some big HR hitters as well. Look for another slugfest here and I'll gladly fade the line move as the odds makers said we want 12.5 on this game and the betting markets have already pushed it down to an 11.5 this morning! 10* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs |
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05-17-17 | Mets v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets @ 3:40 ET - Matt Harvey recently dealt with a 3-game team suspension and he certainly seems out of sorts. The Mets right-hander is 0-3 with an ugly 10.43 ERA in his last three starts. The Diamondbacks at home are the top hitting team in the majors with a .300 batting average and they've averaged 6.1 runs per game in their home games this season. The Mets on the road are the top slugging team in the majors with a .497 slugging percentage and New Yrok is averaging 6.2 runs per game on the road so far this season. The Mets will be facing the Dbacks struggling Patrick Corbin. The Arizona southpaw has allowed 12 earned runs in just 10 innings spanning his last two starts and his strikeout numbers are way down. The Diamondbacks are 9-4 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Mets are 9-1 to the over in road games where their money line ranges from -125 to +125 this season. Also, the over is 5-1 in Mets games against left-handed starters. The Mets bullpen has been a disaster, particularly on the road, this season and they could be called upon early and often in this one considering Harvey's recent struggles. There is no reason to expect either one of these starting pitchers to enjoy success today and the result should be a high-scoring slugfest. 8* OVER the total in Arizona Wednesday afternoon |
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05-17-17 | Astros v. Marlins OVER 8 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros @ 12:10 ET - This total opened up at an 8.5 but has dropped to an 8. I am well aware of the fact that the Astros Lance McCullers has been pitching well (even in recent road starts) but this still a guy that is known for pitching much better at home than he does on the road. His career numbers tell the full story and McCullers entered this season 3-8 on the road with a 4.84 ERA and a .270 BAA. The right-hander has had two good starts and two poor starts in his four road outings this season and I look for one of the latter variety this afternoon in Miami! As for the Marlins, they have the hard-throwing Jose Urena on the mound. Though he has pitched well as a spot starter and, as a result, has now moved into the starting rotation, he is coming off his first outing this season where he threw over 100 pitches. Urena will now be making his 3rd start in 11 days and coming off of his longest outing of the season. He'll also be facing a red hot Astros lineup that has helped lead the way to 8 Houston wins in their last 9 games! The Astros have scored an average of 6.7 runs per game during this hot streak. Look for more of the same early Wednesday. The over is on a 32-16 run (including 4-0 this season) in Houston's games where they are a road favorite of -125 to -175. The over is 9-3 this season in Astros road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is a perfect 6-0 in Marlins Wednesday games this season. Also, the over is 7-3 this season in Miami's games against teams with a winning record and 7-3 in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. 8* OVER the total in Miami very early Wednesday |
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05-16-17 | Red Sox v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 8* OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:15 ET - The wind will be blowing out at Busch Stadium on a mild evening in St Louis and I look for the Cardinals and Red Sox to both be pounding the ball in this one. The total was an 8.5 and it dropped to an 8 and this opened up some additional line value here. The Cardinals are 8-1 in their last 9 games and have averaged 6.1 runs per game during this hot stretch. The Red Sox are off of a loss but had previously won 4 of their last 7 games and averaged 7.6 runs per game in those 7 games. The last 3 seasons combined, Boston is 28-19 to the over in interleague action and also 17-11 to the over when off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. The Cards are 18-12 to the over when off of a shutout win the past 3 seasons combined. Also, this season the Cardinals are 16-9 to the over in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is 7-3 in St Louis last 10 games and 7-1 in the BoSox last 8 games. Boston has Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound and he has been solid but the Cards have won their last two games against lefties by a combined score of 14-7. The Cardinals will have Lance Lynn on the mound tonight and he had been red hot early this season but came back to reality in his most recent start with 4 earned runs allowed in 4 innings. Walks and homers were an issue and Boston has a stout lineup. 8* OVER the total in St Louis |
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05-16-17 | Yankees v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees @ 8:15 ET - Wind blowing out to left. Warm temperatures. The Royals hitting much better with a 6-1 record their last 7 games and averaging 6 runs per game in those 6 wins. The Yankees sticks have been strong all season as they've averaged 5.7 runs per game on the year. Also, the Yanks have won 7 of their last 11 games and have averaged 6.6 runs per game during this hot stretch. The pitching match-up tonight is certainly conducive to an over as C.C. Sabathia is winless in his last 3 starts with an ugly 10.34 ERA in these outings. The Royals Jason Hammel has allowed 16 runs (15 earned!) in the 19 innings spanning his last 4 starts. The over is 4-1 this season when Kansas City is playing after a day off. New York is 9-4 to the over this season when they are off of a loss. Also, when the Yankees are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more, they've gone 14-6 to the over the past 3 seasons combined. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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05-16-17 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 12 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:05 ET - You could have two Cy Young candidates on the mound tonight at Wrigley Field and it wouldn't matter. The fact is that it is a very warm weather pattern finally reaching Chicago and the wind is blowing out to left field. The ball is going to carry like crazy in this one and these two teams have plenty of home run pop in their lineups. The Cubs a perfect 6-0 to the over this season in home games where they are a favorite in a range of -175 to -250. After a loss this season Chicago has gone 12-6 to the over. The Reds are 12-4 to the over this season when they are off of a loss. Also, when on a losing streak of 3 games or more, Cincinnati has gone 4-0 to the over this season. Both these pitchers are prone to giving up the long ball and the over is 5-2 in Bronson Arroyo's 7 starts this season and 5-2 to the over in John Lackey's 7 starts. The first 3 games between these teams this season averaged 14.3 runs per game and the weather is conducive to another wild one here. Arroyo is winless with a 7.71 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. Lackey is off of a great effort at Colorado but he allowed 16 earned runs in the 23 innings spanning his 4 prior starts. Look for that type of production here! 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs |
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