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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-01-18 | Rays v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:10 ET - When it comes to playing overs in MLB one of the "systems" I like to use is grabbing the value when a home team has a pitcher that is likely to struggle on the mound while a "top tier" pitcher is going for the away team. The reason for this is because teams do tend to hit better at home but we get a little extra value because the away team has an "ace" going. That is the case in this match-up Saturday because the Indians Shane Bieber has certainly been nothing special this season and is likely to get pounded here. As for the Rays Blake Snell, he is having a fantastic season but he is facing a very tough Indians lineup at Progressive Field in an evening game that will have summer-like weather by Cleveland standards. Temperatures today are expect to top out in the mid-80s with winds out of the south (which means blowing out at this ballpark). Combining these factors with the low total posted on this game and you have great line value here. The over is a perfect 7-0 this season in Indians home games where their money line is in a range from -125 to +125. The Rays, prior to yesterday's shutout loss here, had averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in their 8 prior games. The Tribe have now won 4 of their last 5 and have averaged scoring 6.2 runs per game during this hot streak. The Indians Bieber has an 8-2 record this season but has truly been so fortunate. In July he compiled a 7.33 ERA. In his last 3 starts here in August he has a 5.63 ERA. Yesterday's under was just the 2nd for the Rays in their last 8 games and I look for trending toward the over to resume immediately today. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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08-31-18 | Orioles v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles @ 8:15 ET - If you look at opponents batting average against, these two bullpens are ranked 29th and 30th out of all 30 MLB teams. That bullpen will be an issue today for both clubs because there is certainly reason to believe each of these starting pitchers will struggle in this one. The Orioles and the Royals lineups have both been red hot. Baltimore enters this game having averaging scoring 9.7 runs per game in their 3-game sweep of the Blue Jays! As for Kansas City, they have won 4 of their last 5 games and KC has averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in the process. The wind will be blowing out at Kauffman Stadium on a warm evening in Kansas City tonight. It is the type of weather this evening that most certainly will favor the hitters. Brad Keller gets the start for the Royals and his ERA has been good in recent starts but he has allowed 13 hits in just 10 innings spanning his last two stats and the O's are swinging hot lumber right now. As for the Orioles Andrew Cashner, he is 0-2 in his last two starts and has been roughed up for 9 runs (8 earned) on 16 hits in just 13 innings of work. Only 9 of 27 (33%) Royals games this month have resulted in an under! Also, only 9 of KC's last 27 (33%) games against teams with a losing record have stayed under the total. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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08-30-18 | Tigers v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:05 ET - I am a well aware of the fact that the Yankees bats have suddenly gone quiet in recent games. However, that is a big part of the reason this is a contrarian play as the total opened up at a 9.5 and then dropped to an 8.5 as of game day morning. We're getting great line value here because I expect the Bronx Bombers to pound the Tigers Francisco Liriano. Also, don't forget that behind Liriano is one of the worst bullpens in baseball. As for the Detroit lefty, he is 0-3 with an 8.25 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Yankees counter with JA Happ and I know the lefty has had good numbers recently. However, Happ has faced the Tigers twice already this season (once each in June and July) and he has been rocked. The Yanks southpaw has given up 11 earned runs in 10 and 2/3 innings spanning those two starts. The over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus Detroit. Also, the over is 2-0 in his last two starts overall. The over is also 2-0 in Liriano's last two starts overall. Only 1 of the Tigers last 7 games has resulted in an under. As a big home favorite in a price of -250 to -330, the Yankees are on a long-term 11-5 run to the over. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees |
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08-30-18 | Twins v. Indians OVER 8.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -116 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins @ 1:10 ET - This total has dropped from an opener of 9.5 down to as low as an 8.5 in some books as of about 3 hours before game time. A lot of value here with the over and yes I am aware of the fact that the wind will be blowing in from right field for this one in Cleveland. The Indians had scored 20 runs in their prior two games before being held to just 3 in last night's loss. They're certain to bounce back against the Twins Jake Odorizzi. The Minnesota right-hander has an 8.10 ERA in his last 3 starts verus Minnesota and all of those have come within the past 90 days! As for the Twins lineup and facing Mike Clevinger, they have had some success against the right-hander this season as they got to him for 4 earned runs in 6 innings when they faced him in June. Also, though Clevinger has a good strikeout rate on the season, he has struck out only 8 Twins in 13 innings against him. In other words, they make contact against him and when there is contact good things can happen. The over is a long-term 28-15 when Minnesota is a big road dog in a price range of +175 to +250. Also, the over is 8-3 in Thursday games for the Tribe this season. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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08-29-18 | Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 2-0 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:15 ET - There is a match-up issue here for Trevor Williams of the Pirates. I am well aware of the fact he has pitched well recently but the Pittsburgh right-hander has allowed 11 earned runs on 25 hits in just 14 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Cardinals. In his career against St Louis, Williams has compiled an ugly 7.29 ERA. Tonight's start will not go well for him. However, the reason the play is on the over rather than on the Cards here is because Miles Mikolas is on a strong downward trend of late. His strikeout numbers have been going down and his home runs allowed (5 in last 3 games) have been going up. The over is 3-0 in Mikolas last 3 starts and also 2-1 in his 3 starts versus the Pirates this season. Last night's game stayed just under the total but tonight's makes up for that in a big way! 8* OVER the total in St Louis |
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08-29-18 | Marlins v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 101 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins @ 6:35 ET - Unseasonably warm weather in the northeast right now and so it is very hitter-friendly conditions that greet the hitters again tonight at Fenway Park. Last night's game totaled 15 runs and I would not be surprised to see a similar total result tonight. The over is 4-0 in the Marlins last 4 road games. The over is a perfect 5-0 this season in Marlins road games when Miami is an underdog price at +250 or more. As a home favorite in a price of -250 to -330, Boston is 3-1 to the over this season. Miami is 2-0 to the over in Trevor Richards last 3 starts as he has been roughed up to the tune of a 5.87 ERA in those outings. David Price has been pitching well for Boston but the Marlins have erupted for at least a dozen hits in 5 of their last 8 games and they stay hot at the plate tonight. This is a contrarian play because Price has been in great current form and most will be scared off of playing over the big total posted on this game but this absolutely should be another slugfest as the Marlins also take advantage of facing southpaw starters on back to back nights. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-29-18 | Mariners v. Padres OVER 8 | 3-8 | Win | 108 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #921 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners @ 3:40 ET - Yesterday's game easily stayed under the total but the Padres were 3-0 to the over in their 3 prior games. Look for the bats to come back to life in an afternoon game as the ball does tend to carry better at Petco in day games. The Mariners are starting Erasmo Ramirez and the over is 4-1 in his starts this season. He has a 5.22 ERA in road starts this season. Combining that with the 3-1 over trend in Padres games and the fact that San Diego is 8-4 to the over in Joey Lucchesi's road starts this season and you have combined angles of 15-6 / 71% that favor the over in this match-up. Lucchesi gave up 5 earned runs in just 4 innings in his most recent home start. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in San Diego |
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08-29-18 | A's v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Oakland A's @ 2:10 ET - The A's Trevor Cahill has made 8 road starts this season. NONE of them have resulted in an under as the over is 7-0-1 in his outings away from home this year. It comes as no surprise considering that Cahill has a 6.92 ERA in his road games this season. The Astros Dallas Keuchel has made 3 starts against Oakland this season. NONE of them have stayed under the total. This comes as no surprise as the Houston southpaw has allowed 5 earned runs or more in two of the three starts. With a pair of angles that have not lost this season, I am backing the over in this one and looking for plenty of runs. 8* OVER the total in Houston |
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08-28-18 | Twins v. Indians OVER 8.5 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET - These two lineups are very familiar with the starting pitchers they are facing tonight and that tends to favor the hitters the further along it is in a season. Case in point here, Carlos Carrasco will be facing the Twins tonight for what will be the 4th time since mid-June! The Indians right-hander just faced them 3 weeks ago and gave up 10 hits in 6 and 1/3 innings. As for Minnesota's Kyle Gibson, he'll be also be facing the Tribe for the 4th time since mid-June. All this repetition is great for the hitters but no so much for the pitchers! In Gibson's case, he is getting hit harder each time he faces Cleveland. The right-hander gave up 6 runs (4 earned) in just 5 innings when he faced the Indians 3 weeks ago. Also, Gibson enters this start having been crushed by the White Sox in his most recent start while Carrasco got hammered by the Red Sox in his most recent start. Look for plenty of runs tonight as these pitchers are unlikely to be fooling many batters with their offerings in this one. The over is 4-2 in Gibson's last 6 road starts and the over is 12-6-1 in all of Carrasco's starts since late April. Keep in mind it was very cold in most of the Cleveland right-hander's starts way back in early season action through late April. Ever since then, as the weather has been heating up the bats were heating up as well. The over is 36-18-3 in Indians home games since mid-April. The over is 27-15 long-term when Minnesota is a road dog in a range of +175 to +250. Look for another one here. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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08-28-18 | White Sox v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - Watching Lance Lynn closely, it was evident that the Yankees right-hander was getting better results than he deserved early on. As expected, his "luck" has run out and he has given up 5 earned runs in each of his last two outings. Now he faces a White Sox lineup that is on fire. With their 6-2 win last night Chicago has now scored 5 or more runs in 12 of their last 15 games! As for the Yankees lineup, they had scored 5 or more runs in 7 of their last 9 games before a dismal showing at the plate last night. Of course each team getting to 5 runs here guarantees us of no less than a 6-5 final and 11 runs scored. I expect to see at least a dozen runs in this one as the Yankees feast on James Shields' offerings. The veteran right-hander is 1-7 with a 6.04 ERA on the road this season and got crushed for 7 earned runs in his most recent start. He allowed 3 homers in that outing and now faces the Bronx Bombers. Yes the Yanks are still missing a few guys (on the DL) but as you can see they had still been scoring plenty of runs prior to last night's defeat. Look for New York to bounce back tonight as this one turns into a slugfest. Prior to last night's games staying just under the total, the White Sox were on a 10-3-1 to the over and the Yankees were on a 6-3 run to the over. That type of trending resumes in a big way tonight. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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08-27-18 | White Sox v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Monday MLB 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - Carlos Rodon has had a strong August for the White Sox but the Yankees are not a good match-up for him. The Chicago southpaw has given up 19 hits and walked 13 for a total of 32 baserunners in 16 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Yankees. Yes that equates to a 2.00 WHIP and allowing two baserunners per inning gets pitchers into trouble very quickly. Speaking of pitchers getting into trouble, the Yanks Masahiro Tanaka has a 6.55 ERA in his last two home starts and he is facing a dangerous White Sox lineup. The reason I use the word "dangerous" is because Chicago is so far down in the standings that they are very loose and relaxed at the plate. The White Sox, as a result, are playing their best baseball of the season and it has led to putting plenty of runs on the board too. Chicago is 9-3 in their last 12 games and the White Sox have averaged scoring 7 runs per game in those 9 victories. Truly they are a lineup that no playoff-contending team wants to be facing right now. The result tonight should be an easy over as Chicago stays hot at the plate but so do the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers have won 8 of their last 9 games and they've averaged scoring 7 runs per game in those 8 victories. 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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08-27-18 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - With yesterday's high-scoring win at Toronto, the over is 8-4 in the Phillies last 12 games. The Nationals are off of a blowout road win over the Mets yesterday and the over is now 9-4 in Washington's last 13 games. Not only are both teams trending over of late, it is also likely that Stephen Strasburg and Zach Eflin are going to each struggle in this one. The over is 3-0 in Strasburg's last 3 starts as he has compiled an 11.81 ERA during this rough stretch. Now he faces the same team that just hammered him last week so this is not a good situation for him. The same holds true for Eflin as he just faced the Nats last week and he was hit very hard and lasted just 3 and 1/3 innings in that start. The over is 3-0 in Eflin's last 3 home starts. Also, the Phils right-hander has faced the Nationals twice this season and has allowed 16 hits in 8 and 1/3 innings spanning those two starts. Suffice to say, they see his offerings quite well! Strasburg does have good long-term success against the Phillies but he is not in good current form right now as he also allowed 4 earned runs to the Mets in the start before he was roughed up by Philadelphia. Additional value here is based on the Phillies recent bullpen struggles and the Nationals bullpen having been thinned out by trades and injuries since mid-season. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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08-26-18 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 8:05 ET - The Orioles are the worst team in baseball but they do have a .418 slugging percentage at home which ranks them in the top half of the majors. Baltimore also has one of the worst bullpens in baseball. The Yankees have a .428 slugging percentage in road games which ranks them 8th out of all 30 MLB teams this season. Combining all of these factors with a rather low total and the fact that each of these starters should encounter some struggles and you have the perfect set up for an over. Luis Severino gets the start for the Yankees and he has good numbers on the season and good numbers against Baltimore. However, he has not faced the Orioles since last season and, also, he has a 7.26 ERA in his 6 starts since the All Star break. The O's counter with Dylan Bundy for this one and his numbers have been even worse of late. Not only has been hit hard in each of his two home starts versus the Yankees this season, Bundy has a 9.08 ERA since early July. The Orioles right-hander has allowed 5 earned runs or more in 6 of his last 8 starts! The over is 5-1 in his last 6 starts. The Yanks Severino has seen the over go 8-1 in his last 9 starts and he truly has been hit very hard in 6 of his last 7 starts. 8* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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08-26-18 | Mariners v. Diamondbacks OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners @ 4:10 ET - Of course Zack Greinke is a fantastic pitcher. However, that is also why we're seeing such a low total posted on this game. There is great value here because Greinke will be facing a solid American League lineup. The Mariners are hitting .264 on the road this season and that ranks them #3 out of all 30 MLB teams. Also, Seattle starter Mike Leake, prior to this season, spent his entire career in the National League. That does two things for us here. First off, the Diamondbacks lineup has a lot of familiarity with him as a result. Secondly, Leake is actually use to handling the bat and he actually is hitting about .200 in his career which is not bad at all for a pitcher. The issue for Leake today won't be at the plate however, it will be on the mound. The Mariners right-hander has a 4.96 ERA in his starts against the Diamondbacks in his career and he has been hit hard in 2 of his last 3 starts against Arizona. The Dbacks are certainly not an overly imposing lineup but they have a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against Leake. Also, the Diamondbacks .326 on base percentage in home games this season ranks them in the top 5 in the NL. These teams combined for 22 hits in yesterday's 10-inning affair so it was a bit of a "fluke" that it stayed under the total. The over is still 6-2 in Seattle's last 8 games. The Mariners are a long-term 34-18 to the over in interleague games. Also, the Dbacks 10 hits yesterday means they have reached double digits in hits in 5 of their last 7 games. They are also averaging 10 hits per game during this 7-game stretch. More of the same on Sunday but, this time, more runs too! 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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08-25-18 | Rangers v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Afternoon Annhilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #927 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers @ 4:05 ET - The ball carries better in day games at AT & T Park and the wind will be blowing out at a good clip this afternoon in San Francisco. Both lineups got back on track in yesterday's high-scoring game which flew over the total. Based on these factors as well as the fact that each of today's starting pitchers are likely to struggle, you have an ideal set up for another one flying over the total this afternoon. The Rangers Martin Perez has given up 53 hits in 34 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 6 starts. In his last 3 starts the Texas southpaw has allowed 16 earned runs in 18 innings of work. The Giants Andrew Suarez has only one good start in his last 7 outings! The San Francisco left-hander, in the other 6 starts, has been rocked for 27 earned runs on 44 hits in 29 and 1/3 innings. You can see why, even though this inter-league match-up is in a National League park, this total is still set far too low. Time to take advantage! 10* OVER the total in San Francisco |
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08-24-18 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs St Louis Cardinals @ 8:40 ET - A number of key factors here have led to exceptional line value with the over in this one. High temperatures today will up near 90 degrees in the Denver area. The wind will be switching around from the east to the south right around the time this one gets underway and, though not a significant factor, the wind will be a help rather than a hindrance on a hitter-friendly night at Coors Field. Another key factor is the Cardinals just faced Antonio Senzatela earlier this month and the Rockies just faced Miles Mikolas earlier this month. Getting a quick "second look" and also this time at hitter-friendly Coors Field is most certainly an edge for these lineups. The third key factor is that Senzatela just recently returned from a trip on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation. The right-hander only struck out 1 batter in his first start back which was versus Atlanta Saturday. Senzatela was not nearly as dominant in that start as he had been prior to the trip on the DL but the markets haven't picked up on this yet. Also, Mikolas did have a good strikeout game in his most recent start but that has been the exception rather than the norm of late. Mikolas had struck out just 13 batters in 27 innings spanning his 4 prior starts. With the Rockies lineup seeing him for the 2nd time in a span of just 3 weeks, I expect plenty of contact from the hitters in this one and that leads to trouble for Mikolas in this hitters park! Look for the over to improve to 9-4 in Mikolas' road starts this season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-24-18 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 12.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Friday 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds @ 2:20 ET - Huge total posted on this game but don't let that scare you. This game has slugfest written all over it. The Cubs are going with Alec Mills as the starter in this one. You have to feel bad for the rookie. The right-hander is making his first ever MLB start in an afternoon game at Wrigley Field with the wind expected to be blowing out at a clip of 15 to 20 miles an hour. This could lead to a home run derby type of game this afternoon in Chicago. Mills is unlikely to enjoy much success in these tough conditions considering his AAA stats in the minors certainly leave a lot to be desired. With Iowa this season Mills is 5-12 with a 4.84 ERA. This one gets ugly quick against the Reds. Look for Cincinnati to have pitching issues of their own in this one as they hand the ball to Matt Harvey. The right-hander is off of a great start versus the Giants. However, Harvey has struggled on the road all season long. Additionally, in day games this season with the Reds he has gone 1-2 with a 6.29 ERA. Earlier this season he was with the Mets and went winless in 8 games (4 starts) with a 7.00 ERA and he got roughed up in his day game appearances with New York as well. Last year Harvey went winless with an 8.66 ERA in his four day game starts. In his last two starts at Wrigley Field, Harvey has given up 8 runs (7 earned) on 16 hits in just 9 innings of work for an 8.00 ERA at Chicago. More of the same here on a day where the hitters (from both lineups) are going to take advantage of very favorable hitting conditions. 8* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game |
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08-23-18 | A's v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 103 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #917 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Oakland A's @ 8:10 ET - As yesterday's results came in, and knowing this match-up was coming up today, I knew I was going to be releasing a very strong play on this one. Having been burned by the A's game yesterday (my first premium pick loss this week) I am ready for redemption today thanks to the absolutely perfect situation here. The Twins game did go over the total yesterday but, surprisingly, Minnesota scored only 3 runs. Why is that a surprise? The red hot Minnesota offense had scored 5 runs or more in 8 straight game! The over is now 6-2 in the Twins last 8 games and they've averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. As for the A's, they just couldn't get the clutch hits they needed yesterday and had a rare poor game at the plate. However, prior to the 4-2 loss yesterday, Oakland had gone 8-2 in their last 10 games and averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game in those road games. The key to the value in today's match-up is that Trevor Cahill is fantastic when at home but atrocious on the road. The Athletics right-hander has just 1 win in his 7 road starts this season while compiling a 6.62 ERA. Last year he went winless on the road in 14 games (9 starts) and compiled a 7.07 ERA! As for the Twins Kohl Stewart, he is a 23-year old rookie that has struggled in each of his first two starts. Worse yet for him is that those two starts were both against a bad Tigers team. He'll face a much more imposing lineup in this match-up. In the minors this season Stewart was hit at a .301 clip! The point is that this young righty is just not ready yet and with the A's angry after yesterday's loss and very focused as a result, they will pound him early and often in this one. This total opened up at a 10 with good reason but now has dropped to a 9.5 and this is offering even more value to the over in what should be a slugfest. As a road favorite in a range of -125 to -175, Oakland is 8-2-1 to the over this season and I look for another one here in this ideal situation with good weather in the Twin Cities tonight too. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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08-23-18 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 10 | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 3:10 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total and the Rockies have been trending under the past two weeks. However, this is a day game at hitter-friendly Coors Field and Padres southpaw Joey Lucchesi has been struggling for the past 6 weeks. During this span he made one good start against the Phillies. However, in his other 5 starts since mid-July, Lucchesi has given up 34 hits in just 23 and 1/3 innings. That's not going to get the job done in an afternoon game against a team that is known for crushing the ball when at home. The over is 4-0 in Lucchesi's last 4 starts and I expect another one here. As for Colorado's Kyle Freeland, he does have very impressive numbers on the season. However, the Rockies southpaw has been roughed up by the Padres in 2 of his 4 starts against San Diego in his career. In those two outings he has compiled a 9.00 ERA over just 10 innings of work. That does include a start this season. Freeland has a losing record in day games this season and has been hit 36 points higher under the sun compared in night games this year. Also, 6 homers allowed in those 8 day game starts. The Padres have some good history against Freeland and I expect some more success in an afternoon game at Coors Field. 8* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-22-18 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Texas Rangers @ 3:35 ET - The Rangers have yet to score a run in the first two games of this series. That said, it may seem a bit brazen to be going with the over in this match-up but my contrarian theories have been among the most successful in my handicapping arsenal. The key here is really all about the match-ups. In this case you have two starting pitchers, Mike Minor and Edwin Jackson, whom truly have pitched a little "over their heads" this season. Couple that with the Rangers struggles at the plate in this series and, sure enough, an opener of 9 on this total has moved down to an 8.5 as of early game day morning. Of course this is leading to extra value on the over here because both of these starters are likely to get rocked. The A's Jackson gave up 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings in his start at Texas last month. Jackson gave up a pair of homers in his most recent start (versus Houston Friday) and he's opposed by a hurler, Minor, whom gave up a pair of homers in just 5 innings when he faced Oakland last month. Also, the Rangers southpaw missed his most recent start in the rotation because of an issue with back tightness. I expect the back to be in the "back" of his mind today too and it could definitely impact his effectiveness. With the wind blowing out toward right center and temperatures nearing 70 degrees coupled with the fact that the ball does carry better in day games at Oakland, you have all the right ingredients for some "healthy" scoring in this one! Note that the Rangers Minor has a 6.48 ERA in road games this season. The A's are 8-2 in their last 10 games and have averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in those 6 victories. They stay hot at the plate Wednesday but the Texas bats join the party in this one too! 10* OVER the total in Oakland |
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08-21-18 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 105 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #907 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:10 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total but this pitching match-up should lead to plenty of runs Tuesday. The Reds Sal Romano has struggled in the majority of his starts since mid-May. During this rough 3-month stretch, the Cincinnati right-hander has made 15 starts and the over is 11-3-1 in those 15 outings! The Brewers are very familiar with Romano and he would probably rather face anyone other than Milwaukee as he is 0-5 with a 5.70 ERA in his five career starts versus them. As for Brewers starter Junior Guerra, he is 1-1 with a no-decision in his last 3 starts versus the Reds. Though the Milwaukee right-hander pitched well in the no-decision versus Cincinnati, he certainly struggled in the other two starts. Guerra allowed 12 earned runs in just 10 innings spanning those two starts. Overall, Guerra has allowed 6 homers in his last last 15 innings versus the Reds! The over is 2-1 in those 3 starts and also he enters this start having gone 2-0 to the over in his last two outings as he allowed 17 hits in 9 and 2/3 innings combined versus the Padres and Cubs. Guerra has given up 3 homers in his last two starts at Miller Park. The over is 19-9 in the Reds last 28 games against teams with a winning record. The over is 13-6 in Milwaukee's last 19 games against teams with a losing record. Also, the Brewers are 6-2 to the over this season in home games where they are a favorite in a range of -175 to -250. Look for more of the same on Tuesday. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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08-21-18 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles Dylan Bundy and Blue Jays Sam Gaviglio were just matched up a month ago at the Rogers Centre in Toronto and the game ended up an 8-7 Jays win. That slugfest saw the two starting pitchers combine to give up 5 homers. I look for more of the same here. The over is 2-0 in Bundy's last two starts as he has been destroyed for 15 runs (14 earned) in just 10 and 1/3 innings spanning those two outings. As for Gaviglio, he has a 5.28 ERA in his last 3 starts but it could easily be much higher. The Blue Jays right-hander has given up 21 hits in the 15 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Yesterday's game stayed under the total but Toronto's 5-3 win marked the 5th time in their last 7 games that they've scored at least 5 runs. As for the Orioles, I know they're not an easy team to trust at the plate but they will enjoy success seeing Gaviglio for a 2nd time in a span of a month and I love the value here with a total that was already low (9) now dropping even lower (8.5) in some books as of early game day morning. 8* OVER the total in Toronto |
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08-20-18 | Indians v. Red Sox OVER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Indians @ 7:10 ET - This total opened up at an 8.5 and has dropped to an 8 as of early game day morning. Yes, I understand that both of these pitchers are solid starters. I also am aware that it will be rather cool for an August evening in Boston and the wind won't necessarily hurt us but also won't help us. However, the fact is that this is still a very hitter-friendly ballpark and it is still a match-up featuring two very potent lineups! That said, getting a total of 8 with these two teams squaring off at Fenway Park is a great value. Trust me, the Red Sox are happy to see the Rays leave town as their pitching staff (wealth of relieving talent too) can be so frustrating to face. Look for Boston to bounce back big after yesterday's shutout loss. I also like having the over here after losing with the Indians over yesterday. That total was an 8.5 and the game was 8-0 Cleveland after just 4 innings and lost! Tough beat but it happens and we turn the page to a new day and I look for the Indians to stay hot at the plate. The Tribe have averaged scoring 6.1 runs per game their last 7 games. The Red Sox are 13-3 in August and are ranked #1 out of all 30 teams with a .500 slugging percentage this month! Boston is scoring an average of 6.6 runs per game this month! Cleveland's Corey Kluber has a 4.50 ERA in his last 4 road starts. The over is 16-4-1 in Kluber's last 21 starts! Boston's Rick Porcello has allowed 21 hits in his last 16 innings versus the Indians and gave up 3 homers to Cleveland the last time he faced them. The Red Sox right-hander has a 6.85 ERA in his last 4 home starts. The over is 12-5-1 in Porcello's last 18 starts. More of the same here! 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-19-18 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET (game played at BB&T Park in Williamsport, PA) - This is the 2nd year of the MLB Little League Classic which is held during the Little League World Series. I remember last year's game well as I got burned on the over. The total was a 9.5 and the game was 6-2 after 3 innings and yet ended up a 6-3 final despite 20 hits in the game. Both lineups saw the ball just fine in this park and the ballpark is adjusted to MLB dimensions. There were two homers hit in last year's game and I expect at least a pair to leave the yard again in this year's match-up. Pitching on an unfamiliar mound is, to me, the bigger hurdler in a game like this and I expect both Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta to have some struggles. I also like the fact that the total, which opened up at a 9, has dropped down to an 8.5 as of game day morning. The Mets Vargas is 2-8 this season with an 8.10 ERA. Though the Phillies Pivetta has pitched better of late, he is still just 3-6 with a 5.32 ERA in his 14 apperances (13 starts) since June 1st. New York is 17-9 to the over as a road dog in a money line range of +125 to +175. Pivetta has struggled in 2 of his last 3 starts against the Mets and the over is a perfect 3-0 in those outings. Look for that streak to make it 4 in a row tonight! 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia (game played in Williamsport, PA) |
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08-19-18 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
Divisional Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Sunday 10* OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 4:10 ET - The Diamondbacks fell short 7-6 yesterday but they continue to love hitting Padres pitching. Arizona has averaged scoring 8 runs per game in their last 8 games against San Diego. Also, with yesterday's game flying over the total, the over is now 5-1 in the 6 games played at Petco Park this season! I expect more of the same on Sunday afternoon. Not only does the ball carry better in day games in San Diego, we're also getting a low total to work with because Zack Greinke is on the mound. Now, don't get me wrong, Greinke is a fine pitcher but there is no doubt that he is more comfortable on his own mound in comparison with enemy mounds. This season opponents are hitting 55 points higher against Greinke when he is on the road and his ERA is 1.36 runs higher when away from home. This is not a "one year fluke" either as last season he went 13-1 at home but only 4-6 on the road where opponents hit 47 points higher against him. The real key to the value here is that Arizona could very well get this game over the total all by themselves. As noted above, they love hitting Padres pitching and the other key here is that Padres rookie starter Brett Kennedy has been absolutely crushed in each of his first two starts this season. Both of those games flew over the total and the over is now 9-4 in the Padres last 13 games. Though Petco Park has a reputation as a pitchers park the markets tend to over-adjust for this and that is why the over is 37-24 in Padres home games this season. Also, only 6 of Arizona's last 17 games versus teams with a losing record have resulted in an under. In other words, you can see why plenty of runs can be expected again this afternoon at Petco Park. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
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08-19-18 | Orioles v. Indians OVER 8.5 | 0-8 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Baltimore Orioles @ 1:10 ET - Though the winds are not favorable for an over today in Cleveland, this also is likely part of the reason the total moved from an opener of 9 down to an 8.5 as of game day morning. I like the extra value being offered here because I expect both hurlers to struggle. Yefrey Ramirez gets the start for the Orioles. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts. Though he is off of a decent start, those have been rare and also that outing was at home. In his two prior starts, both on the road, Ramirez was rocked for a combined 11 earned runs in 6 and 2/3 inning of work. The Indians are starting Mike Clevinger in this one. Though his most recent home start stayed under the total, the over was on a 7-1-2 run in his 10 prior starts as a host! Clevinger walked 6 in just 5 innings against the Reds in his most recent start. Also, he gave up a pair of homers in that start and that was the 2nd time in 3 starts that he has allowed multiple homers in a game. The over is 12-6-1 in Baltimore's 19 Sunday games this season. The under has cashed in 3 straight Indians games but they've not had 4 straight unders in over two months. In other words, the odds are certainly in our favor that the bats will be the story on Sunday! 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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08-18-18 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - The Twins Kohl Stewart has a really tough assignment here. Not only is he making just the 2nd MLB appearance of his career, he has to face the same team he made his debut against last week. Giving the Tigers another look at him is unlikely to do him any favors as they were already "dialed in" on him in his debut. Stewart allowed 3 earned runs on 8 hits in just 4 and 1/3 innings. Also, in over 100 innings of work in the minors this season, Stewart got hit at a .301 clip. Simply put, he is struggling as he has moved up to facing higher-caliber hitters. As for his counterpart in this match-up, the Tigers Ryan Carpenter is also likely to struggle. The Detroit southpaw went 2-8 with a 5.00 ERA and a .308 batting average in the minors this season. Carpenter has, of course, found major league hitters to be just as tough to get out! The lefty has a 6.39 ERA and has been hit at a .315 clip in his 4 MLB appearances (3 starts) this season. You can see exactly why I am expecting both of these hurlers to struggle. As for the relievers behind them, these teams' bullpen ERA cumulative on the season ranks them each in the bottom third of the majors! The over is 3-0 in the Twins last 3 games and there have been 0 unders in Detroit's last 5 games. Look for another one here! 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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08-18-18 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets @ 4:05 ET - This is a contrarian play as, on the surface, it looks like a pitchers duel. The fact is that both teams have been swinging the bats better of late and both of these lineups are familiar with the hurlers they'll be facing today. I realize that the Mets Jacob deGrom has been pitching very well of late but the Phillies have averaged 6 runs on 11 hits per game their last 4 games. As for Philadelphia's Jake Arrieta, he is coming off of a rough outing at San Diego where he allowed 5 earned runs against the Padres. In his last 4 home starts Arrieta has given up 24 hits in 19 and 1/3 innings. 17 runs have been charged to Arrieta in those 4 starts although only 11 were earned. The Mets ran into a red hot Aaron Nola last night and, though Arrieta is a solid pitcher, he certainly doesn't have the "stuff" that Nola has been "dealing" this season. That said, New York had scored at least 6 runs in 7 of their 11 games prior to last night's low-scoring loss to the Phillies. The bats come back to life in this one for the Mets but the Phils are going to continue to make noise with their hot sticks at home too! The result should be a surprisingly easy over in this one. 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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08-17-18 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 109 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:10 ET - Ryne Stanek gets the starts for the Rays but, of course, Tampa Bay uses the "full game bullpen" approach when he is on the mound so he only goes 1 or 2 innings anyway. The reason I like the over so much here is that the Red Sox are plenty familiar with Tampa's relievers at this late point in the season and being one of the best home hitting teams in the majors means we should see plenty of runs from Boston here. Of course Fenway Park is a hitter-friendly venue and also favorable weather is expected tonight as well. As for the Red Sox starter, Brian Johnson, he has given up 10 runs (8 earned) in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts. The lefty has allowed 5 homers in those two starts and the Rays swung the bats much better in yesterday's game versus the Yankees than what the final score would indicate. That said, this one has "slugfest" written all over it. The Red Sox averaged 7.2 runs per game in their 9-game road trip that wrapped up on Wednesday. Only 18 of Boston's last 47 games when playing after a day off have stayed under the total. Look for the over to improve to 3-0 in Johnson's last 3 starts and to improve to 5-2 on the season in Stanek's starts away on natural fields this season. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-17-18 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9 | 5-7 | Win | 105 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Friday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - I don't mean to sound overconfident about this pick but I truly have only one concern about not cashing it. That concern is that rain prevents this one from going 9 innings. The fact is that I have been looking for the opportunity to fade Lance Lynn as I have watched him pitch and his stuff is just not that good. He has put up some surprisingly good numbers since coming to the Yankees from the Twins but he has faced bad teams like the Orioles and White Sox and then he faced the free-swinging Rangers. Also, he got the Rangers at home and had he faced them in Texas (where they are a much better hitting team) the results likely would have been different. In any event, now Lynn is facing a Blue Jays team that crushed him earlier this season for 6 earned runs in 5 innings. Also, I like the fact that Toronto enters this game having gone 5-3 in their last 8 road games. The Blue Jays have scored an average of 6.2 runs per game in those 5 wins away from home and I look for them to pound Lynn tonight. The concern for the Blue Jays tonight is that Marcus Stroman is dealing with a blister issue that forced him to exit his most recent start. Though he is ready to go tonight, the fact is that Stroman has allowed 12 runs (10 earned) in the 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts against the Yankees. Also, he is an ugly 2-5 this season with a 5.33 ERA in his road starts. The over is 17-7 when Toronto is a road dog in a range of +125 to +175. Also, the Blue Jays are 3-1 to the over in Stroman's last 4 starts. 8* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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08-16-18 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET (Game 2 of double header) - The Phillies used a ton of bullpen in last night's win over the Red Sox as starting pitcher Vincent Velasquez was ineffective and had to make an early exit. With that said, and with a rookie starting Game 1 of the double-header today, the Phillies bulllpen is likely to be missing some arms (or at the very least have some tired arms) by the time Game 2 of the double-header rolls around tonight. Philadelphia will be working on its 3rd game in a span of 24 hours. I know Zach Eflin has put up some solid numbers this season and that is why the move for a very short demotion to minors wan't really a demotion...it was just because of roster reasons after some recent trades. However, I do feel this could effect Eflin's effectiveness due to the "mental aspect" of pitching. Also, his last 3 starts have come against the Marlins, Reds, and Padres. Those are the 3 last place teams at the very bottom of each division in the National League! Now I know the Mets also don't have that impressive of a record but New York has averaged scoring 7 runs per game their last 7 games and I do feel Eflin is going to struggle after the "demotion that wasn't" per se! As for Mets starter Steven Matz, struggles are also likely as he had a strained flexor-pronator muscle in his throwing arm and has been awful recently. In his 3 starts since the All Star break the southpaw has a 12.34 ERA! The over is 4-0 in the last 4 starts Matz has made and, per all of the above, another one is very likely here. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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08-16-18 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 9 | 24-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets @ 4:05 ET (Game 1 of double header) - The Mets are starting Corey Oswalt and this will be his 2nd start against the Phillies in his rookie season. Look for that to be an edge for the Philadelphia hitters and they also have momentum off of a huge performance last night in their 7-4 win over the Red Sox. New York's Oswalt is winless with a 6.75 ERA in his 4 road games (3 starts) this season. As for the Phillies starter in Game 1 of this twin-bill, it is also a rookie hurler. Ranger Suarez gets the call and the southpaw did get the win in his MLB debut but he allowed a pair of homers (and 4 earned runs overall) in his 5-inning start versus the Reds last week. He is facing a Mets team that will have plenty of confidence at the plate in this one as they've won 5 of their last 7 games and have averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their last 7 games! Only 3 of the Mets last 10 games have stayed under the total. The Phillies Suarez is only 22 years old and he had never even pitched above single-A ball in the minors until this year! Suffice to say this is a huge jump for him to face major league hitters and I expect some more "growing pains" for the southpaw like we saw when he faced Cincinnati last week. 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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08-16-18 | Rays v. Yankees OVER 8 | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Thursday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 1:05 ET - The Yankees Masahiro Tanaka got rocked for 6 earned runs in just 5 innings in his most recent start. In his prior outing he gave up 6 hits in less than 5 innings of work. The Yanks right-hander has allowed 4 homers in his last two starts and the Rays have some extra confidence at the plate after yesterday's 6-1 win brings them to 5-3 their last 8 games. The issue for Tampa Bay today will be a match-up issue for their starting pitcher Blake Snell. The Rays southpaw has been crushed to the tune of a 12.54 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Bronx Bombers and all of those have been recent too. Snell allowed 5 homers in those 3 outings. You can see why this one certainly has the possibility of turning into a slugfest though most, at first glance, would not expect that. Couple this with the fact that we have a low total to work with in this one and there is great value with the over. Also, the weather will be hot this afternoon in the Bronx with a light breeze expected to be blowing out to right field. 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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08-15-18 | Mariners v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Seattle Mariners @ 3:35 ET - The total on this one has dropped from an opener of a 9 down to an 8.5 and I am well aware of yesterday's low-scoring 3-2 A's win as well as the fact that Oakland has been trending under of late. That said, I am going contrarian here and going with the over. For one things, the Mariners have been trending over of late. For another, the ball does carry better in day games at Oakland Coliseum. Additionally, I am not that impressed with either one of the starting pitchers taking the mound today. The Mariners Mike Leake has a low ERA over his last 3 starts but he has allowed 25 hits in 18 and 2/3 innings spanning those 3 outings. Also, in his last 3 road starts, Leake has allowed 25 hits in just 16 innings of work! The Athletics should get to him early and often. The issue for Oakland however will be their own starting pitcher. Southpaw Brett Anderson gets the call here and the lefty is facing a Mariners team that is 4th in the AL with a .261 batting average versus left-handed pitching. Anderson has a "decent" ERA this season but he continues to allow opponents to be a hitting machine. Note that since his "respectable" 2015 campaign with the Dodgers, Anderson has given up 154 hits in 114 and 1/3 innings. That means he gives up about 4 hits every 3 innings and this a 3 year trend! Opponents are hitting well over .300 against him during this 3-year stretch and I love the value we're getting with the low total here. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Oakland |
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08-15-18 | White Sox v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:10 ET - Yesterday's game was 3-3 after 1 inning and 6-3 at the halfway point of the game (top of the 5th). I had the over in yesterday's game and was dealt a frustrating push (total was a 9). As you might expect, I am coming right back with the same play today after getting royally burned by this one yesterday. With yesterday's win, Chicago has scored 18 runs on 28 hits in their past three games. Also, they have scored 19 runs in their past three road games and are 4-1 their last 5 away from home. As you can see, they carry some confidence stepping up to the plate in this one. The issue for the White Sox however will be the fact that their starting pitcher is likely to struggle in this one. Carlos Rodon is 0-2 with a 7.31 ERA in his 3 career starts versus Detroit. This will be the first time he has faced them in 2018 and the left-hander is facing a Tigers team that ranks 8th out of all 30 teams for batting average versus southpaws this season. The over is 14-4 in Chicago's last 18 games against teams with a losing record. As for Tigers starter Jordan Zimmerman, he has faced the White Sox twice this season and he has been rocked for 10 earned runs in just 9 and 1/3 innings. The over is 9-1 in Zimmerman's 10 career starts versus the White Sox and the over is 2-0 (with one push) in Rodon's 3 career starts versus the Tigers. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Detroit |
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08-14-18 | White Sox v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #961 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - Tigers starter Blaine Hardy gave up 3 homers in 5 innings in his most recent start. Though he was pitching better prior to the tough at Los Angeles against the Angels, the White Sox will prove not to be a good match-up for him. Though his numbers show good starts against them this season, keep in mind players change teams in today's MLB more frequently than years gone by. There are a number of hitters on the White Sox roster whom have enjoyed success against Hardy. Chicago has scored 12 runs on 20 hits in their past two games. Also, they have scored 13 runs in their past two road games and are 3-1 their last 4 away from home. Despite yesterday's 9-5 loss, they carry some confidence stepping up to the plate in this one. The issue for the White Sox however will be the fact that their own starting pitcher is also likely to struggle. Lucas Giolito has given up at least 5 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts. The Sox lefty has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 8 of his last 14 starts. He is facing a Tigers team that ranks 8th out of all 30 teams for batting average versus southpaws this season. Also, Giolito has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his two starts versus Detroit this season. The over is 14-4 in Chicago's last 18 games against teams with a losing record. Also, when the White Sox enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games, the over is 22-7 this season! The over is 3-1 in Hardy's last 4 home starts. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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08-14-18 | Brewers v. Cubs OVER 9 | 7-0 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Tuesday MLB 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 2:20 ET - The wind will be rather light but still it will be a south to southwest wind which means it will be blowing out toward left or left-center field on a very warm afternoon at Wrigley Field Tuesday. Of course this favors the hitters and, based on this pitching match-up, we have great value with this rather low total in Chicago this afternoon. Jose Quintana gets the start for the Cubs and he has been rocked for at least 5 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts. Jhoulys Chacin gets the call for the Brewers in this one and he has allowed 11 earned runs in 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. The over is 8-1 in Chacin's last 9 starts. With this total at a 9 we just need each team to get to 4 runs as the game then can't end with anything less than a 5-4 final. Milwaukee has scored at least 4 runs in 10 of its last 11 games. In fact, the Brewers have averaged scoring 5 runs per game during this stretch. As for the Cubs, they've scored at least 4 runs in 9 of their last 13 games. The over is 8-2-1 in Milwaukee's last 11 games. The over is 20-11 this season in Brewers games against left-handed starters plus they are 9-4 to the over when playing after an off day. Look for another one to fly over today at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field. 8* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game |
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08-13-18 | Nationals v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals @ 8:10 ET - Many will be expecting the Nationals to be flat here after the demoralizing 2-out 2-strike grand slam that turned a 3-0 win into a 4-3 loss in the bottom of the 9th yesterday. However, I disagree. I think the Nats are going to be very feisty here and I expect them to enjoy success at the plate against Miles Mikolas. The issue for Washington is that their own starter, Tom Milone, can't be trusted here. Hence, a big play on the over for me. First off, as for Mikolas, the Cardinals right-hander has been more hittable lately than he was earlier this season. He has given up 26 hits in the 23 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 4 home starts. As you can see, Mikolas certainly has not been unhittable of late! As for Milone, the Nationals southpaw got rocked for 7 earned runs on 10 hits in just 6 innings in his most recent start and that was at home. In his only road start with the Nats he allowed 8 hits in just 5 innings. Look for the Cardinals to do plenty of damage at the plate in a game that should turn into a back and forth slugfest. Look for the over to improve to 3-1 in Milone's starts. Also, the Cards are 15-8 to the over in their last 23 games against teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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08-13-18 | Mets v. Yankees OVER 7 | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #921 Monday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - The long-term reputation of both of these pitchers is great plus the Mets certainly aren't known for their run-scoring abilities. However, for this total to be down to a 7 (and possibly even headed toward a 6.5) in an American League park is simply too low in my opinion. The over is actually 6-1 in Luis Severino's last 7 starts. The Yankees right-hander has tailed off since his red hot first half of the season. In his last 6 starts Severino has a 7.31 ERA. The Mets Jacob deGrom had a strong start versus the Yankees earlier this season. However, when the right-hander last faced them in the Bronx (coincidentally last August) he got roughed up for 5 earned runs on 9 hits (including 2 homers) in 7 and 1/3 innings. Since late June, deGrom has only made two road starts and he allowed 6 earned runs on 14 hits in 13 innings. Those are mediocre numbers away from home and possible weather issues in the Bronx this evening (scattered thunderstorms) could cause delays that disrupt the rhythm for both of these pitchers. As a road dog in a range of +125 to +175, the Mets are 13-8 to the over this season. In home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less, the Yankees are a long-term 21-12 to the over (including 5-2 to the over the past two seasons). 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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08-13-18 | Marlins v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 3 h 39 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Monday 8* OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins @ 1:35 ET (Game 1 of double header) - The Braves are expected to have Touki Toussaint start game one of this day-night twinbill. He will be making his MLB debut. Though Toussaint has great minor league numbers this is a guy whom has only made 5 starts above the AA level in minor league ball. Last year he was still in single-A ball for the majority of the season. Give him credit as he has made a quick rise through the minor league ranks but now he faces a major league lineup on a warm afternoon in Atlanta where the ball should be carrying very well. He'll be opposed by a fellow rookie as well. The Marlins are expected to go with Pablo Lopez in game one but there is a chance it could be Merandy Gonzalez. Either way I like this play as, either way, it is a rookie pitcher for Miami that is facing a Braves team that has won 10 of its last 14 games thanks in large part to their lineup scoring an average of 6 runs per game in the 10 wins. Look for Atlanta to stay hot here at the plate. Lopez has a 4.54 ERA in his last 6 starts and has allowed 7 homers in his 7 MLB starts. If Gonzalez gets the call he has a 5.71 ERA and has been hit at a .311 clip working out of the bullpen this season for the Marlins. He has allowed 3 homers in 17 innings. The over is 8-3 in the 11 games between these teams and I expect more of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Atlanta (Game 1 of double header) |
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08-12-18 | A's v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #977 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland A's @ 4:05 ET - With yesterday's 7-0 shutout win, the Athletics have stayed under the total in 7 straight games. Couple that with the fact that Mike Trout is currently on the DL for the Angels and most will be looking under in this match-up. In typical contrarian fashion I am going with the over in this match-up and a closer look will show you exactly why that is. The Angels Taylor Cole will be making his first ever MLB start and his average outing of the bullpen for Los Angeles this season is two innings. Cole has never started a game above the AA level in MLB and has a 5.16 ERA this season working out of the bullpen in AAA. I don't expect him to fare well against an A's team that is very confident at the plate right now. Oakland has won 8 of their last 10 games and has averaged scoring 5 runs per plate during this hot stretch. Though Cole struggles here, he may indeed get his first MLB win as a starter because I do expect the Angels lineup to pound Trevor Cahill. The Oakland right-hander has truly been "night and day" between his road starts and home starts this season. At home he has a 0.99 ERA but on the road Cahill has a 6.44 ERA. The over is 5-0 (and one push) in his 6 road starts this season. I am forecasting that record to stay perfect on the year this afternoon! 8* OVER the total in the Los Angeles Angels game |
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08-12-18 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 9 | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins @ 1:10 ET - The Twins are starting Kohl Stewart in this one. This will be his MLB debut and it is unlikely to go well. This season he has been pitching in the minors and has logged 68 innings at AA and 40 and 2/3 innings at AAA. The results? He got hit at a .301 clip at the AA level and a .300 clip at the AAA level. In other words, today's start against MLB hitters is unlikely to see him missing too many bats! He'll be opposed by the Tigers Matt Boyd. I know the southpaw has good numbers at home this season but the Minnesota lineup is very familiar with him and Boyd is 0-2 in his last 3 starts against the Twins and has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in those outings. He has not lasted more than 5 innings in any of those starts against Minny and that will be significant here as the Detroit bullpen ERA ranks the Tigers in the bottom third of MLB. By the way, the Twins bullpen ERA and batting average against ranks them as one of the worst in the majors. 8* OVER the total in Detroit |
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08-11-18 | Brewers v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:10 ET - The Braves crushed the Brewers 10-1 yesterday and are also one of the top hitting teams in the majors against left-handed pitching. In other words, the Atlanta bats should absolutely stay hot today as they take advantage of facing southpaw Wade Miley. The Brewers lefty shows some good numbers in terms of his stats but, he has had limited action and will be exposed here. Other than a superb start against the Dodgers Miley's other outings have seen him allow 13 walks and 20 hits (total of 33 baserunners) in 21 and 1/3 innings! The start against the Dodgers was the only one of Miley's last 5 outings that have stayed under the total. The over is 7-1-1 in Milwaukee's games this month and they should pound Julio Teheran. The Braves, overall, have gone 4-1-1 to the over in their last 6 games and Teheran is likely to struggle here. He has lost command of his slider and walks have often been an issue for him of late plus, overall, his ERA is north of 5 over his past ten starts! Teheran allowed 7 earned runs in just 3 innings when he most recently faced the Brewers. The Brewers had averaged scoring 5.4 runs per game in their last 8 games prior to yesterday's loss. They'll bounce back here and the Braves bats (7.5 runs per game last 4 at home) stay red hot. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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08-11-18 | Rangers v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Saturday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:05 ET - Both of these teams are certainly seeing the ball very well right now. Yesterday's game totaled 19 runs. I know that Lance Lynn is off of a start that looks superb (against the White Sox) when you look at his stats from that one. However, I watched that outing closely and he was very fortunate early and the Sox batters helped him more than they should have too. The point being I don't expect him to have that same success against a Rangers lineup that has now scored 11 or more runs in 5 of their last 9 games! Suffice to say the Texas lineup is rolling with confidence right now as they are averaging 8.6 runs per game their last 9 games! Yesterday marked the 4th time in 5 games that the Yankees have hung 7 on the scoreboard so their lineup is rolling along just fine as well. Certainly I don't expect them to have any problems with the offerings of Drew Hutchison. The Rangers right-hander got rocked for 6 earned runs in 3 innings in his first start with Texas and that came against a bad Orioles team. In other words, things are unlikely to improve for Hutchison against a quality Yankees team! He started this season with the Phillies working out of the bullpen and has a cumulative 1.77 WHIP and 6.29 ERA on the season. He struggles here and Lynn is going to see more hard hit balls that don't end up with his fielders in this one. Again, I know his start versus the Sox was successful but I watched that one closely and he was very fortunate early and then got into a nice groove. That won't happen here. 8* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game early Saturday |
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08-10-18 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET - Ervin Santana has not looked right since he returned from the disabled list. The numbers don't lie and the velocity is down on his pitches. Also, he has allowed 20 hits in less than 15 innings of work spanning his 3 starts. In his last two starts Santana has given up 4 homers. Speaking of problems with giving up the long ball, the Tigers Jordan Zimmerman has allowed a pair of homers in each of his last 3 starts! The Detroit right-hander has a 6.91 ERA in his last 3 starts while Minesota's Santana has a 6.14 ERA in his 3 starts. Neither pitcher in good current form and both of these hurlers also have a match-up concern here. I say that because Zimmerman has allowed 15 earned runs in just 12 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Twins! As for Santana, he has allowed 12 runs (10 earned) on 21 hits in 15 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Tigers. The over is 3-0 in Zimmerman's last 3 starts against Minnesota and 2-0 in Santana's last 2 starts against Detroit. The Twins enters this game on a run of 5-2 to the over after yesterday's game at Cleveland flew over the total. Minnesota is a long-term 10-7-72 to the over in games against teams with a losing record. Both of these bullpens rank in the lower third of the majors too! The over is a long-term 40-23 in Twins Friday games including 11-4 this season! The Tigers have had just 18 unders the last 50 times (36%) that they were playing after a day off. Plenty of offense in this one! 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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08-09-18 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 ET - The Rockies Tyler Anderson has trended under this season in his home starts. The Dodgers Ross Stripling has trended under this season in his road starts. As a result, you have a situation where the betting markets and public or square bettors are going to help us get some additional value here. That's because both of these pitchers are likely to get hammered here but yet this total is holding at a 10.5 as of gameday morning. Of course 10.5 may seem like a big number but not for a mid-August game at hitter-friendly Coors Field with two very strong lineups. Keys to the value here include the fact that the Dodgers Stripling is returning from a stint on the disabled list with an injury to the big toe on his right foot. Being a right-hander, that is is the foot he pushes off with and certainly could still be "on his mind" in his first start back. Stripling has allowed 9 earned runs in the 8 and 2/3 innings spanning his two starts since the All Star break. He allowed 4 homers in those two outings! The Rockies Anderson has also struggled recently with 11 earned runs allowed in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts. Like Stripling, Anderson has also allowed 4 homers in his last two starts. Stripling has a respectable ERA in his 3 career starts against the Rockies but the only 2 where he pitched more than 2 innings saw him allow 9 hits in 6 innings each time! In other words, he hasn't fooled many Colorado sticks and a "break through" against him is imminent. As for Anderson against the Dodgers, he had a great start at Dodger Stadium this season but, prior to that he was rocked for 9 earned runs in just 7 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts against Los Angeles and that included one at Coors Field. He gave up 3 homers in those 7 and 1/3 innings. The over is 7-2-1 (78%) this season in Anderson's starts where is Rockies are an underdog and they are a home dog here. Look for a slugfest to erupt per the above angles! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-08-18 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #957 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - The Nationals Tom Milone is coming off of a great start but he faced the Mets. That outing has to be taken with a grain of salt. Now the southpaw faces a Braves team that ranks among the top teams in the majors against left-handed pitching. Atlanta is hitting .267 this season against lefties with a .450 slugging percentage! As for the Nationals, they are one of the top hitting teams in the National League when on their home field as Washington has a solid .263 batting average at home. Though the Braves Mike Foltneywicz has great overall numbers, the right-hander was hit hard at Washington late last month and has an ugly 1.78 WHIP in his last two starts at Nationals Park. Milone's start prior to shutting down the Mets saw him allow 3 earned runs on 8 hits in just 5 innings of work versus another weak team, the Marlins. That said, he is likely to struggle badly against a Braves team battling it out with the Phillies for the top spot in the NL East. Foltneywicz had a solid start in his most recent outing but this was against a weak Mets team. Prior to that he had some struggles in 4 straight outings and compiled a 6.94 ERA during this 4-start stretch! There have been only 2 unders in his last 8 starts. Look for the "over trend" to resume Wednesday as he and his counterpart on the hill are each likely to get roughed up. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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08-08-18 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 11 | 7-11 | Win | 105 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners @ 2:05 ET - The Rangers Yovani Gallardo has pitched just well enough to keep this total lower than it should be. The fact is that he regressed to his usual struggles in his most recent start and this still a guy whom hasn't compiled a respectable full season ERA at the MLB level since 2015. Even though he is 6-1 this season (truly a bit of a miracle), Gallardo has a 5.24 ERA on the season. Also, he has been roughed up in 3 of his last 5 starts. He'll be opposed by the Mariners Marco Gonzales. Though the Seattle southpaw has good numbers, he was hit hard in his lone career start at Texas and the Rangers bats are red hot right now. Part of the reason that Texas has rattled off 8 wins in their last 11 games is that the Rangers lineup has produced an average of 7.5 runs per game during this hot streak. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 starts Gonzales has made and also the over is 7-1 in Gallardo's 8 starts this season! Overall, the over is 5-2 in the Mariners last 7 games and Seattle is a long-term 7-3 in road games with a posted total of 11 or 11.5 runs. 8* OVER the total in Texas |
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08-07-18 | Pirates v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:40 ET - Yesterday's 2-0 Rockies win continued a rare stretch of low-scoring games at Coors Field. Look for normalcy to return tonight in Denver. The wind will be blowing out and I look for both pitchers to get hit hard. Colorado's Chad Bettis hasn't pitched in over a month and his ERA is 8.75 in his 7 home starts this season. The over is 5-1 in his last 6 home starts. Also, the over is 5-1 overall in the last 6 starts Bettis has made. Also, in his 7 starts since late May, Bettis has compiled an 8.15 ERA in those 7 outings. Bettis has a 7.45 ERA in his last two home starts against the Pirates. He'll be opposed by Jameson Taillon tonight. The Pittsburgh right-hander did have a solid start against the Rockies last season but that was NOT at Coors Field! Taillon will be making his first ever start in the Mile High City and this venue is not known for being kind to first-time starters. Also, he has a 4.12 ERA in night games in his career as he has been much better in day games. The over is 8-4 in Taillon's last 12 starts overall. Only 25 of the Pirates 68 night games have stayed under the total this season. With both Taillon and Bettis likely to get roughed up, this one does not stay under either! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-07-18 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #931 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 1:05 ET (Game 1 of double header) - The Nationals called up Jeffry Rodriguez from the minors to make this spot start. The Washington right-hander has a 9.64 ERA in his 3 MLB starts this season and the over is a perfect 2-0 in his home starts this year. The Braves will have southpaw Max Fried on the mound in this one. The over is a perfect 2-0 in his road starts this season. The over is 5-1 in the Nationals last 6 games against a southpaw starter and Washington is a very confident team at the plate right now. That confidence comes with an 8-3 winning run their last 11 games. This is a hot stretch during which the Nats have averaged scoring 7 runs per game. Atlanta has scored 4 runs or more in 5 of their last 7 games and should have no trouble with the offerings of Rodriguez. With the Nationals also pounding the ball here and with hot weather in DC and the wind blowing out at Nationals Park this one should fly over the total early this afternoon. 8* OVER the total in Washington (Game 1 of double header) |
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08-06-18 | Yankees v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees @ 8:10 ET - Lance Lynn makes his first start for the Yankees. Though he was impressive out of the bullpen in a 4 and 1/3 innings stint coming out of the New York bullpen, Lynn faced a struggling Orioles lineup. While the White Sox certainly are also a bad team, they have won 4 straight games plus they've averaged scoring 5.2 runs per game in their last 10 games. The over is 8-3 in Lynn's 11 road starts this season as he has compiled an ugly 7.08 ERA when pitching on enemy turf. Also, he has given up 16 hits in 11 innings in his last two starts at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox counter with a struggling hurler of their own in this one. Chicago's Dylan Covey has struggled badly over his last eight outings. The White Sox right-hander has compiled an 8.68 ERA and ugly 1-6 record in these 8 starts. Covey has allowed 46 hits plus he has walked 22 in the 37 1/3 innings spanning these outings. Covey got absolutely crushed for 8 earned runs in 5 innings in his lone career start versus the Yankees. The over is 4-2 in his 6 home starts this season. The White Sox enter this game on an 8-3 run to the over in their last 11 games. Look for the Yankees over to improve to 14-8 the last 22 times they've been a road favorite of -175 or more. The Yanks bullpen has had some issues recently (again last night too) and New York has allowed an average of 7 runs per game during their current 5 game losing streak. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game |
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08-06-18 | Reds v. Mets OVER 7.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Monday 8* OVER the total in New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:10 ET - The Mets Noah Syndergaard is off of a strong start versus the Nationals but he did allow 3 earned runs. Also, he has given up 21 hits in 17 innings in his 3 starts since his July return. The point is that he has not been as dominating as the "old" Syndergaard and we're dealing with a very low total on tonight's game considering that the wind is expecting to be blowing out at a good clip on a very warm night at Citi Field. The Mets right-hander will be opposed by the Reds Homer Bailey. He is 1-8 with a 5.87 ERA on the season. Also, Bailey has a 9.90 ERA in his last two starts versus the Mets. The over is 3-0 in Syndergaard's last 3 starts versus Cincinnati. The over is a long-term 37-23 in Reds August games and also the over is 8-3 in Cincinnati's Monday games this season. 8* OVER the total in New York Mets |
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08-05-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #927 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 8:05 ET - Masahiro Tanaka gets the start for the Yankees here and he has produced two straight scoreless outings. However, he faced the Orioles and Rays! Now the Yankees right-hander faces a Red Sox team that has crushed him for 10 earned runs in 10 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts against them. Tanaka allowed a pair of homers in each of those starts versus Boston and both of those outings occurred this season. Speaking of match-up problems here, Red Sox southpaw David Price is a horrible 2-6 with an 8.43 ERA in his 9 starts against the Yankees since he came to Boston in 2016. Price has been absolutely demolished by New York's bats this season as he has allowed 12 earned runs in just 4 and 1/3 innings. The lefty has allowed 6 homers in those two short outings! Yes the past two games of this series have been low-scoring but I would not be surprised to see this one turn into a high-scoring game like we saw in the first game of this 4-game set. Weather conditions at Fenway Park Sunday evening will also be ideal for an over. The over is 10-5 in Tanaka's last 15 starts. The over is 4-1 this season in Red Sox games where their money line is in a range of -125 to +125. Look for another one here. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-05-18 | Blue Jays v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 4:10 ET - The Mariners are looking to avoid suffering a 4-game sweep on their home field at the hands of the Blue Jays. While I do trust the Seattle bats to come to life against a sub-par pitcher in Sam Gaviglio, I also expect the Toronto bats to stay red hot against Mike Leake. As for the Blue Jays Gaviglio, the right-hander has an 8.41 ERA in his last 5 starts. The over is 5-2 in the 7 road starts that Gaviglio has made this season as he has compiled an ugly 8.78 ERA away from home. As for the Mariners Leake, he has a mediocre 4.78 ERA in his last 5 starts. The right-hander's ERA during this stretch could easily be higher as he has been rocked for 38 hits in 26 and 1/3 innings of work. Hence the value here as this is unlikely to be a good start for Leake. The Blue Jays saw him earlier this season plus they come into this game with a red hot lineup! Toronto has scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in their last 10 games and the over is still 10-3 in their last 13 games despite yesterday's game staying under the total. The over is 11-5 in Blue Jays Sunday games this season and they are 17-7 to the over this season as a road dog in a money line range of +125 to +175. The Mariners have stayed under the total in each of Leake's last two home starts but previously Seattle was 7-3 to the over in his home starts this season. The Mariners haven't stayed under in 3 straight home starts for Leake this season and I don't see that trend changing here either! Look for plenty of runs here and take advantage of the drop from 9 to 8.5 runs on this posted total. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
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08-04-18 | Cardinals v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:05 ET - Austin Gomber had a successful outing in his first ever MLB start a week and a half ago. However, he primarily had been used out of the bullpen at the MLB level prior to that outing and one good start doesn't mean he is just going to come out and keep dominating. He goes from facing the NL Central cellar-dwelling Reds to now facing a red-hot Pirates team that became buyers rather than sellers at the trade deadline as they have been so hot that they got back into the playoff picture. With yesterday's win the Pirates are now 15-4 their last 19 games. However, I am playing the over rather than the Bucs here because Pittsburgh starter Ivan Nova is likely to get roughed up just like Gomber is for the Cards. Nova has a low ERA in his last 3 starts but he has been fortunate as he has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his last two home starts. Overall his K numbers have been down and Nova has given up 13 hits in less than 10 innings spanning his last two home starts. Also, the Pirates right-hander has a 5.40 ERA in his last two starts versus St Louis as they've gotten to him for 19 hits (including 3 homers) and 6 walks in the 15 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts against them. The fact that Nova has trended under in his home starts this season and the fact that Gomber had a great first MLB start is keeping this total lower than it should be. The over is 13-6 in St Louis' last 19 games. The over is 14-7 in the Cardinals last 21 games versus teams with a winning record. The Pirates are 22-12 in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Pittsburgh is also 19-10 to the over in games against left-handed starters this season. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh early Saturday evening |
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08-04-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 1-4 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 4:05 ET - The Yankees are starting highly touted prospect Chance Adams in this one. Though he has some solid stats at the minor league level overall, Adams is only 3-5 with a 4.50 ERA this season at the AAA level. This year in spring training the right-hander went winless in 3 appearances (2 starts) while getting rocked to the tune of an 11.57 ERA. Now he faces the best home hitting team in baseball. The Red Sox at Fenway Park have compiled a .284 batting average and .496 slugging percentage this season and both of those marks rank them #1 out of all 30 MLB teams! The issue for Boston this afternoon will be on the mound where Nathan Eovaldi gets the start. The Yankees know plenty about him as he was with him in 2015-16. The Yanks faced him earlier this season and got to him for 5 earned runs in a start in the Bronx in mid-June. More of the same expected here in what is likely to turn into a back and forth slugfest with the wind blowing out on a very muggy afternoon at Fenway Park. In fact, rain could be a bit of an issue in this one but I do expect them to be able to get the game in based on the most recent weather reports and any interruptions due to rain will only make the game flow that much tougher on two starting pitchers likely to struggle in this one. Look for the over to improve to 12-6 in Yankees Saturday games and to go to 5-2 this season in their road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. 8* OVER the total in Boston Saturday afternoon |
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08-03-18 | Orioles v. Rangers OVER 11 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #921 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles @ 8:05 ET - Both of these teams have been knocking the cover off of the ball of late. The Orioles have notched at least 14 hits in 5 of their last 6 games. Baltimore has averaged scoring 9.2 runs per game during this stretch. The Rangers have pounded out double digits in hits in 5 of their last 7 games after notching 18 hits in last night's game. Texas has averaged scoring 7.7 runs in their last 9 games. The over is 9-4 in the Rangers last 13 games since the All Star break. The over is 6-0 in the Orioles last 6 games. Even though Ariel Jurado is off of a strong start in his most recent game this will be just the 3rd start of his MLB career. In the minors he has been hit at a .269 clip or higher in each of his last 3 seasons at the minor league level and that includes .302 last season. The point is that I am not putting too much stock into his successful start in his last outing. As for the Orioles David Hess, the over is 3-1 in his last 4 starts as he has compiled a 10.70 ERA in these outings. Hess allowed at least 5 earned runs in each of those 4 starts. Look for another wild one tonight as both of these starters are likely to struggle and neither team has a potent bullpen either! 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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08-03-18 | Padres v. Cubs OVER 8 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Friday 8* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres @ 2:20 ET - The Padres got their sticks going in a 6-1 win at Wrigley Field last night. Since the All Star break San Diego has faced a southpaw starter 3 times and they've averaged 10.3 hits in those 3 games. They'll face a lefty for the 4th time today and this will be the 4th time in 6 games that the Padres are matched up with a left-handed hurler. That type of repetition tends to favor the hitters and note that the Cubs Jose Quintana was roughed up for 6 earned runs in just 3 innings in his most recent start. Also, that was on the road and he is now back home where he has a 5.02 ERA on the season. The Padres Tyson Ross has not been as sharp of late and his most recent start saw him compile a 2.00 WHIP versus the Diamondbacks and that was at home. Each of his two career starts at Wrigley Field went over the total and the only career start Quintana has against the Padres also went over the total! 8* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game |
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08-01-18 | Blue Jays v. A's OVER 8 | 3-8 | Win | 110 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 3:35 ET - Yesterday's game stayed just under the total as there was no scoring after the 6th inning. However, the A's have now won 4 straight home games and have averaged scoring 6.5 runs per game during this hot stretch. After yesterday's 6-2 win, Oakland has now scored at least 6 runs in 7 of their last 10 games. Though Tuesday's game missed going over the total by half a run, the Blue Jays are still on a 7-2 run to the over in their last 9 games. This afternoon the wind will be blowing out to center at a good clip at Oakland Coliseum and the ball does carry better there in afternoon games. The over is 2-0 in Marcus Stroman's last two starts versus the A's. The Toronto right-hander has given up 10 runs (9 earned) on 15 hits (including 3 homers) and 7 walks in just 9 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts versus Oakland. None of Sean Manaea's 3 career starts versus the Blue Jays have resulted in an under. The A's left-hander has a 5.25 ERA in his last two starts versus Toronto and he allowed 3 homers in the 12 innings spanning those two outings. Manaea enters this start off of an outing versus the Rockies where he allowed 9 hits in just 5 innings of work. The over is 13-7 in Jays games this season where they are a road underdog in a range of +125 to +175. The A's are averaging 10.4 hits per game their last 9 hits and another game featuring double digits in hits for the Athletics appears likely here. The Toronto bullpen ranks in the lower third of the league for relievers' combined ERA this season. 8* OVER the total in Oakland |
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08-01-18 | Reds v. Tigers OVER 9 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 1:10 ET - The over is 9-2-1 in the Reds Sal Romano's last dozen starts. The Cincinnati right-hander has a 5.70 ERA on the road this season. The over is 2-1 in the Tigers Michael Fiers last 3 starts versus the Reds. The Detroit right-hander has been given plenty of run support in those outings - 9.3 runs per game - from his teammates! Though Fiers enters this start in good current form, his August / September stats the last 3 seasons show a combined 7-10 record with a 5.31 ERA. The Reds are 26-16 to the over in day games this season. The over trend in Romano starts (including 0 unders his last 6 outings!) continues on Wednesday. 8* OVER the total in Detroit |
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07-31-18 | Indians v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - The Indians went 0 for 11 with runners in scoring position yesterday. Of course that cost me my big play on the over in their Monday match-up with the Twins. I won't hesitate to come right back with this play after all those wasted opportunities yesterday. Yes I know Kyle Gibson has good numbers on the season for Minnesota but Cleveland has been one of the hottest lineups in baseball in the month of July. Also, Gibson is off of a very strong start at Fenway Park but he previously had been hit hard in 3 of his 5 prior outings. Also, he allowed at least 3 earned runs in 4 of those 5 starts. As for Trevor Bauer, the Twins have been a nemesis for him. Yes he has great numbers this season but, prior to his strong start versus the Pirates last week, Bauer had allowed 6 earned runs on 16 hits in 11 innings spanning his two prior starts. In his last two starts against Minnesota, Bauer has given up 12 runs (7 earned) in 12 and 1/3 innings. The over is 10-5 in Cleveland's Tuesday games this season. Also, the over is 9-4 in the Indians last 13 games against teams with a losing record. The Twins have averaged scoring 5 runs per game their last 8 games. The Indians .490 slugging percentage in the month of July is #1 in the American League. The Tribe and Minny both rank near the bottom of the majors for bullpen ERA this season too. This one makes up for yesterday's nonsense. 8* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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07-31-18 | Giants v. Padres OVER 8 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants @ 4:10 ET - The over is 3-0 in Clayton Richard's last 3 starts. The Padres also are 4-0 to the over in the last 4 starts Richard has made against the Giants. The left-hander has allowed 16 earned runs in the 20 and 2/3 innings spanning those 4 starts. Also, the southpaw comes into this outing having logged a 9.64 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. Giants rookie Dereck Rodriguez has been pitching well. However, this will be the 2nd time the Padres have seen him and the only other time he has faced a team twice this season he gave up 3 earned runs on 7 hits in only 5 innings versus the Marlins. In other words, look for the San Diego sticks to have much more success against him in their second look at him in a span of five weeks! In home games with a total of 8 or 8.5 runs the Padres are 15-7 to the over this season and they are also 12-4 to the over this season when on a losing streak of 3 or more games. The ball does tend to carry better in day games at Petco Park and that is what I am expecting here Tuesday afternoon. 8* OVER the total in San Diego |
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07-30-18 | Indians v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - The Indians Shane Bieber has allowed at least 4 runs in 4 straight starts. In one of the outings only 3 of the runs were earned but the point is that Bieber has consistently struggled in recent starts. Also, his most recent start saw him get completely crushed by the Pirates. Bieber will be facing the Twins for the 3rd time this season and this certainly is an advantage for the Minnesota lineup. Bieber has only allowed 5 earned runs in his first two starts versus the Twins but he has been fortunate to say the least. Bieber has given up 18 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings so certainly he escaped some jams and is unlikely to be so fortunate here. As for the Minnesota starter Monday, Ervin Santana gets the call. I am well aware of the fact that he has great numbers in recent starts versus the Indians but this is a unique situation for him. He is making just his 2nd start of this season after a long stint on the DL and, in his first start back, Santana gave up 3 earned runs on 7 hits in just 5 innings of work and this was against a Toronto team that certainly hasn't been playing at the level of the Indians this season. In fact, Cleveland is hitting .284 in the month of July and averaging 6.2 runs per game this month. Both of those stats have them #1 in the league. The over is 9-3 in the Indians last 12 games versus teams with a losing record. The over is 13-7 in Twins home games with a money line ranging from -125 to +125. Look for another one here! 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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07-30-18 | Marlins v. Braves OVER 9 | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Monday 8* OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins @ 7:35 ET - The Braves Julio Teheran has given up 20 runs (18 earned) in the 15 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Marlins. The Marlins Wei-Yin Chen pitched well against Atlanta last week but that start was in Miami. On the road this season, Chen is 1-5 with a 10.47 ERA in his 8 starts. The over is 6-2 in his outings away from home this season. Also, Chen's 7 career starts against the Braves have produced a result of 6-1 to the over. Atlanta is 23-13 to the over this season in their games against teams with a losing record. The over is 18-7 this season in Marlins games where they are a road underdog in a range of +125 to +175. The over is 7-1 this season when Miami is off of a shutout win. Overall, the over is 7-3 in the Marlins last 10 games and the over was 5-0 in the Braves 5 games prior to the pitching-rich Dodgers shutting them down in their last 3 games. Miami is certainly the opposite of a pitching-rich team. 8* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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07-30-18 | Phillies v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #916 Monday 8* UNDER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:10 ET - Not only are the Phillies struggling at the plate right now, they also have to face a tough southpaw Monday. This is bad news for the Phils as they are one of the worst teams in the majors against left-handed starters. Philadelphia is hitting just .232 with a .362 slugging percentage versus lefties this season. Both of those marks rank them among the worst in the league. David Price appears to be back on track for Boston as he has allowed just 3 earned runs in the 13 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, Price has struck out 22 in the 17 and 2/3 innings spanning his last three starts. He has held the Phillies to just 8 hits while striking out 14 in the 13 innings spanning his last two starts against them. The Phils Aaron Nola also should hold an edge on the mound in this one Monday as the Red Sox will be seeing him for the first time in his career and the All Star has been one of the best pitchers in baseball all season long. Nola is 12-3 with a 2.42 ERA in his 21 starts this year. The under is 4-1 this season when the Phillies are off of a shutout loss and the under is 6-1 this season when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. The under is also 8-4-1 in their interleague games this year. The under is 54-35 long-term when the Red Sox enter a game on a winnings streak of 3 or more games. 8* UNDER the total in Boston |
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07-29-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #963 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - I had this play yesterday and it was also an over 8.5 and I got burned bad as it did not go over the total despite being 6-0 after 1 inning and 6-2 by the top of the 4th. I won't hesitate to come right back with the same play today as the Cardinals John Gant shows good overall numbers as a starter but only 2 of his 7 starts have been quality starts. In most outings Gant labors just to complete 5 innings and his ERA in these other 5 starts is a modest 5.04 combined. The Cubs just saw him last week and Gant certainly wasn't dominant as he was fortunate to hold them scoreless over 5 innings. As for Chicago starter Kyle Hendricks, he just faced the Cardinals last week and he allowed 3 earned runs on 9 hits in less than 5 innings of work. Hendricks has allowed an average of 2 base runners per inning in his last 2 starts and bigger trouble is on the way based on his current hittability. He also has allowed about 2 base runners per inning in his last two starts versus the Cardinals. Hendricks has a 4.70 ERA on the road this season and only 3 of his last 9 road starts have resulted in an under. The over is 6-3 in Chicago's last 9 games versus a right-handed starter and the Cards are 10-5 to the over in their last 15 games versus teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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07-29-18 | A's v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #979 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Oakland A's @ 3:10 ET - The A's had been one of the hottest lineups in baseball heading into this series at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Of course it only makes sense then that a lot of runs should be expected. Inexplicably however, Oakland has been held to scoring just 1 run in each of the first two games of this series. In other words, look for a huge bounce back here! The A's had averaged scoring 10.3 runs per game in the first 4 games of this road trip - all at Texas. Oakland has averaged 11 hits per game so far on this road trip and should get right back on track in terms of run production by taking advantage of facing a struggling pitcher Sunday. The Rockies German Marquez gave up 5 runs in 5 innings in his most recent start and that was on the road. Note that the Colorado right-hander has a 7.31 ERA in his 10 home starts this season! The A's hurler is also likely to struggle here. Not only is the over 7-2 in Frankie Montas 9 starts this season, this will be his first ever start at Coors Field. This venue is not known for being very kind to first-timers and the Rockies step to the plate with plenty of confidence here as they've gone 15-4 in their last 19 games. Colorado is one of the top hitting teams in the league when at home and the over is 7-3 in Marquez home starts and 4-1 in Montas road starts. More of the same here! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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07-29-18 | Indians v. Tigers OVER 8 | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Indians @ 1:10 ET - The Indians Corey Kluber has great numbers on the season but he has been roughed up for 13 runs (9 earned) on 17 hits (including 3 homers) in the 11 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. The over is 13-3-1 in Kluber's last 17 starts as he has been a recipient of strong run support for much of this season. As for the Tigers Jordan Zimmerman, he is also coming off of back to back sub-par starts. The Detroit right-hander has given up 8 earned runs on 18 hits (including 4 homers) in the 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Zimmerman also is 0-4 with a horrible 10.56 ERA in his 6 career starts versus the Indians. The Tigers are 4-0 to the over in their last 4 games with a total posted at 8.5 runs or less. Cleveland is 8-3 to the over in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. The Indians have also had just 7 unders in their 22 games so far this month. Yesterday the Tigers went 1 for 11 with runners in scoring position and the result was a surprising pitchers duel. Look for today's game to play out much differently given the current form of these two starting hurlers. 8* OVER the total in Detroit |
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07-28-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:05 ET - The Cubs Jose Quintana threw over 120 pitches in his most recent start. Though he got the win and has enjoyed recent success since making some adjustments to his change-up, the issue the southpaw is going to have here is that he is facing the same team he just beat Sunday. Not only could he fatigue early in this one after the lengthy start in his last outing, the Cardinals will also have an edge in having just seen him. That means the tweaks he made to his change aren't going to be effective in the 2nd meeting in 6 days. He'll be opposed by the Cardinals Miles Mikolas. The right-hander has struggled a bit in 2 straight starts now as Mikolas has allowed 5 earned runs on 12 hits and 4 walks in 9 innings spanning his last two starts. The Cards will be seeing him for the 3rd time already this season and, by the way, the Cubs hitters will be facing Quintana for the 4th time already this season. Quintana has been great in night games this season but note that he has a 5.01 ERA in day games this year! As for Mikolas, the recent struggles also could relate to his wife having recently given birth to twins. He was on the paternity list recently and this is a home game for him so, again, the distractions of home will certainly be present again. Look for both starters to struggle here. Even with yesterday's game staying under the total, the over is still 10-4 in match-ups between these teams this season. Also, the Cubs are 10-4 to the over their last 14 games overall and the Cards are 11-4 to the over their last 15 games overall. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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07-27-18 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #973 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers @ 8:10 ET - The Rangers Yovani Gallardo gave up 0 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent start at home against the Indians. However, he walked 4 and struck out 1. This guy has not had a solid season at the MLB level since 2015! This year he has a 7.47 ERA in his 3 road starts and all 3 went over the total. Though his start versus Cleveland stayed under the total that was his first start for Texas this season that has stayed under the total. Gallardo has a 4-1 record on the season but, hands down, this is absolutely the worst pitcher in MLB to have an 80% winning percentage - no questions asked. He is likely to get crushed by the defending World Champs here as his road struggles continue. As for Houston's Dallas Keuchel, of course I am well aware of the fact that he is a very good pitcher and that this is particularly true at home. However, the Rangers are very familiar with him as these division rivals face off so often. In fact, this will be the 4th time in just 2 and 1/2 months that the Rangers are getting a shot at Keuchel. In the two most recent starts Texas has gotten to him for 8 runs (7 earned) on 18 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings. The over is 6-2 in the Rangers last 8 games overall and they have scored 5 or more runs in 7 of their last 10 games. The Astros are averaging 5.2 runs per game this season against right-handed starters and certainly should have no trouble with the offerings of Gallardo. In fact, the Astros have pounded out 22 hits in his last 16 and 2/3 innings against them. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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07-27-18 | Phillies v. Reds OVER 9 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Friday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:10 ET - This total opened up at a 9.5 and has dropped down to a 9 and this is offering us some great line value in this spot for a play on the over. With yesterday's game flying over the total, the over is now 5-0 in the Phillies last 5 games and 7-1 their last 8. As for the Reds, the over is now 21-6-2 their last 29 games! Cincinnati's Desclafani has struggled in 4 of his last 5 starts. His most recent start stayed under the total but, prior to that, the over was 6-0 in his last 6 starts. Other than a strong start at Cleveland, Desclafani's other 4 recent starts have seen him allow 18 earned runs in 19 and 1/3 innings. With the Phillies riding high right now as they've opened up a small lead at the top of the NL East, their confidence at the plate is growing. The Phillies are starting Pivetta in this one and the over is 6-0-1 in his last 7 starts. The Philadelphia right-hander has a 6.42 ERA in his last 10 starts and he is facing a Reds team that is known for hitting well at home where Great American Ball Park is a very hitter-friendly venue. The Reds are 13-2 to the over in their last 15 games versus teams with a winning record. Philadelphia is 10-5-1 to the over in their Friday games this season and I expect another easy one here! 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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07-26-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 2:20 ET - The wind will be blowing out to right field at Wrigley Field this afternoon and there are two right-handed starters on the mound that will contribute to some extra left-handed pop in the lineup from each of these two teams. In other words, you can expect some long balls to hit in this one. I am well aware of the fact that yesterday's game was a pitchers duel and that each of the first three games of this 4-game series have stayed under the total. The key here is that the pitching match-up Thursday afternoon is absolutely ripe for an over. The Diamondbacks Zack Godley has a 5.37 ERA in his 11 road starts this season. Also, in his 5 day game appearances (including 4 starts) this season, Godley has a 10.00 ERA and has been rocked at a .342 clip by opposing hitters! As for the Cubs Tyler Chatwood, he has more walks than strikeouts on the season. Of course that is never a good sign for a pitcher and this is particularly true when it is past the midway point of the season already! Chatwood's ERA is nearly two runs higher at home compared to on the road this season. Also, in his 3 prior seasons, his home ERA was 6.07 compared to just a 2.57 ERA on the road. Of course that had to do with pitching at hitter-friendly Coors Field but, keep in mind, Wrigley Field plays out as a hitter-friendly venue too when the weather is like it will be today in Chicago. Only 3 of Godley last 10 road starts have resulted in an under. Also, the over is 12-5 in Chatwood's last 17 starts and that includes a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 starts! The Cubs were 9-0 to the over in their 9 games prior to this series and that trending toward high-scoring games resumes this afternoon. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game |
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07-25-18 | Twins v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #965 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins @ 4:05 ET - The Blue Jays Sam Gaviglio is off of the longest start of his career. That certainly holds significance here as he threw over 100 pitches in that outing and Gaviglio has an ERA above 9.00 in his career when he is off of a start where he threw at least 100 pitches. The right-hander also has given up 4 homers in his 2 starts against the Twins in his career. As for Minnesota's Ervin Santana, he is making his season debut after a long stint on the disabled list recovering from thumb surgery. Not only will he be on a pitch count here, he is unlikely to be 100% right away in his first start of the season. Additionally, Santana has allowed 3 homers in his last 2 starts at the Rogers Centre. Only 4 of Gaviglio's 12 starts this season have resulted in an under and I look for that trend to continue here. Yesterday's game stayed under the total but Minny was previously 9-4 to the over in their 13 prior games. Also, the Twins faced a southpaw yesterday but the over is 8-2 in their last 10 games facing a right-handed starter. As for the Blue Jays, they were 6-3 to the over their last 9 games prior to yesterday's game finishing under the total. Look for the over trending to resume in a huge way giving the pitching match-up in this afternoon affair Wednesday. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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07-25-18 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals @ 12:35 ET - Each of the first two games in this series have stayed under the total. However, the Cardinals entered this series having gone 15-4 to the over in their 19 prior games. The Reds entered this series having gone 19-4-2 to the over their 25 prior games. Look for those high-scoring trends to resume in this afternoon match-up in Cincinnati. The ball is known for carrying well at Great American Ballpark and this is particularly true in day games and also particularly true when the weather is forecast to be like it is on Wednesday afternoon. Clear skies, warm temperatures and light breeze blowing out toward right field. The over is 3-0 in the Cardinals Jack Flaherty's last 3 starts. The over is 8-2-1 in the Reds Sal Romano's last 11 starts. This includes 5-0-1 in his last 6 home starts. The over is 2-0 in Flaherty's last two starts versus the Reds and Romano's only start (in April) against the Cardinals also went over the total. Combining that 1-0 mark with the other perfect marks above and you have a situation with combined perfect edges that are 11-0 to the over. I'll take it! 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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07-24-18 | Twins v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:05 ET - The Twins rank in the middle of the pack this season when it comes to batting average versus left-handed pitching. However, note that Minnesota has scored 5 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games against a southpaw starter. The Twins are hot at the plate overall as they have averaged scoring 6.6 runs per game their last 9 games. Now, with this total dropping from a 9 to an 8.5 as of early Tuesday morning, it is "go time" with the over in this match-up. The over is 9-4 in the Twins last 13 games. The over is 6-3 in the Blue Jays last 9 games. Toronto starter Ryan Borucki got crushed at Boston in his most recent start. Minnesota starter Jose Berrios has allowed only 4 homers in his 11 home starts this season but this one, of course, is on the road where he has served up 13 homers in just 9 starts! Berrios is just 2-5 on the road this season and he gave up 3 long balls in his most recent outing away from home. 8* OVER the total in Toronto |
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07-24-18 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 8 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves @ 12:10 ET - The Marlins Wei-Yin Chen has been very strong at home this season but the southpaw is facing a Braves team that is #1 in MLB this season with a .275 batting average versus left-handed pitching this year. Chen has a 4.91 ERA in his last 3 starts versus Atlanta and the over is 5-1 in his 6 career starts against the Braves. He'll be opposed by Julio Teheran and he has allowed at least 5 earned runs in each of his last two starts versus Miami. In road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs, Atlanta is 14-7 to the over after cruising to a 12-1 win yesterday which flew over the total. The Braves are also 5-1 to the over this season in road games where they are a money line favorite in a range of -125 to -175. The Marlins are 8-4 to the over their last 12 games and they have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 5.04 ERA on the year while Atlanta's bullpen ERA ranks them a lower level 20th out of all 30 teams. 8* OVER the total in Miami |
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07-23-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:05 ET - The Cubs are 17-6 against left-handed starters this season. However, I am going with the over rather than the Cubs in this match-up. That's because I certainly don't trust Chicago starter Luke Farrell. The right-hander struggled in his only start this season and gave up 3 earned runs in less than 3 innings in a late June outing. In his only MLB start last season he also struggled and gave up 5 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work. Farrell is facing a Diamondbacks team that got their sticks going again in their weekend series with the Rockies in Arizona as they averaged scoring 7 runs per game. The Cubs have certainly been red hot at the plate for an even longer stretch. The Cubs have scored an average of 6.4 runs per game their last 9 games and all 9 of those went over the total. The Cubs rank 5th out of all 30 MLB teams for batting average versus left-handed pitching. Look for Chicago to give the Dbacks Pat Corbin some trouble here. The Arizona southpaw gave up 7 earned runs in just 3 innings in his last start at Wrigley Field. We're getting line value because the wind will be blowing in off of the lake at the old ball park this afternoon. The wind will be light and, based on this pitching match-up, I expect plenty of runs from both clubs in this one. Corbin has a 5.23 ERA in his last two starts on the road and the over is 19-10 in Diamondbacks road games with a money line range between -125 and +125 this season. Also, the over is 9-2 in Arizona's Monday games this season and the Cubs over streak appears destined for 10 in a row! 10* OVER the total in the Chicago Cubs game |
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07-23-18 | Pirates v. Indians OVER 8.5 | 7-0 | Push | 0 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #975 Monday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:10 ET - The Pirates are the hottest team in baseball as they've won 9 in a row. A key to their success has certainly been red hot sticks and Pittsburgh has averaged scoring 8 runs per game in their last 5 victories. Though the Indians Corey Kluber certainly has great full season numbers he will be facing a red hot and confident Pirates lineup. Also, Kluber allowed 6 earned runs in his most recent start. That outing was also at home and the high-scoring loss brought the totals record to 8-2-1 in Kluber's 11 home starts this season. As for the Pirates Trevor Williams, he is off of a strong start in his most recent outing but he previously had allowed 4 earned runs or more in 6 of his 9 prior starts! Williams compiled a 7.02 ERA in those 9 starts and he now faces a Indians team that was red hot at the plate prior to yesterday's rare shutout loss! Cleveland had averaged scoring 9 runs per game in their 7 games prior to being held scoreless yesterday at Texas. The Indians are 15-6 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Pittsburgh is 8-4 to the over in interleague games this season. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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07-23-18 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Monday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:10 ET - The Reds are off of a 9-2 loss yesterday as they got swept by the red hot Pirates. However, speaking of red hot, Cincinnati's totals continue to trend over in a huge way. The Reds are 19-4-2 their last 25 games! That's right, just 16% of Cincinnati's last 25 games have resulted in an under! The Cardinals are off of a 7-2 loss yesterday and the over is now 15-4 their last 19 games and that includes 8 straight overs! The Cards are starting Daniel Poncedeleon and he will be making his MLB debut. Though he has pitched very well in the minors this season, he did get hit hard in his action, albeit limited, in spring training this year. The point being that a jump from facing minor league hitters to facing major league hitters always can be a trying time for a young hurler. As for the Reds, they have a pitching concern of their own here. Luis Castillo gets the start here and St Louis has already faced him 3 times this season. Suffice to say, the Cardinals hitters are very familiar with him and this will be the 4th time this season (and 3rd time in last 6 weeks) that they're getting a crack at the Reds right-hander. Castillo has a 5.63 ERA in his 3 starts versus the Cards this season. He also enters this start having compiled a 5.67 ERA in his last 9 starts overall. Look for both teams strong over trending to continue here and note that Cincinnati is 8-2 to the over this season in Monday games and the Reds are 21-11 to the over in home games in a pick'em price range of +125 to -125 on the money line this season. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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07-22-18 | Indians v. Rangers OVER 11 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Indians @ 3:05 ET - The Indians Mike Clevinger has allowed 28 hits in the 23 innings spanning his last 4 starts. The Cleveland right-hander has a 6.00 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. The over is 4-1 in Clevinger's last 5 starts versus AL West opponents. The over is 7-1 in the Indians last 8 games versus teams with a losing record. The first two games of this series have each totaled at least 17 runs and it looks like another wild one can be expected Sunday with Yovani Gallardo getting the start for the Rangers. All 5 of his starts have gone over the total this season and he has a 6.75 ERA on the season. Keep in mind, Gallardo truly hasn't enjoyed success at the MLB level since the 2015 season. He is facing the wrong team at the wrong time too. The over is 7-1-1 in the Indians' last 9 games thanks in part to a Tribe offense that has averaged scoring 8 runs per game during this hot streak! The over is 10-5 in Indians Sunday games this season. The over is a long-term 22-14 when the Rangers are home dog in a money line range of +125 to +175. While it is true that this is the biggest total on the board Sunday, it is also true that both of these starting pitchers are likely to get rocked and the Rangers bullpen has been struggling and the Indians bullpen has been one of the worst in MLB this season. Currently Cleveland's bullpen has a 5.26 ERA on the season which ranks them 29th out of 30 teams! 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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07-22-18 | Marlins v. Rays OVER 7 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #925 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins @ 1:10 ET - This total opened up at a 7.5 and has dropped to a 7 in a number of books as of early game day morning. I am going contrarian here and going with the over as the 7 is certainly offering us some favorable value here. Certainly I understand the push toward the under with these two hurlers on the mound but some key factors are pointing toward the over in this one. The Rays Chris Archer has given up 18 hits in the 12 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The over is 4-2 in his home starts this season. The Marlins Trevor Richards has a 5.93 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP on the road this season. Also the right-hander just faced the Rays and that was in Miami and he got rocked for 4 earned runs on 9 hits in just 5 innings of work. Things won't get any easier for Richards as he now gives them a quick second look and this time it is on the road at Tropicana Field! Tampa Bay had been swinging the bats very well prior to yesterday's low-scoring loss and the over was 4-0 in their 4 prior games. Miami is 17-7 to the over this season in road games where their money line ranges from +125 to +175. Look for another one here as they are a big road dog Sunday. 8* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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07-21-18 | Astros v. Angels OVER 8 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #971 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game ended up a low-scoring pitchers duel. However, there is reason to believe both of these starters get a little roughed up on Saturday afternoon. This game starts at 4:15 local time and the wind (although not strong) will be blowing out toward center field. The point being the ball does carry better in day games in Anaheim and the weather is favorable for it Saturday afternoon with very warm weather in the forecast. Though Justin Verlander has great history versus the Angels, he did get roughed up in his final start before the All Star break as he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings. That was the 3rd time in his last 5 starts that Verlander has allowed 4 earned runs or more. The over is 6-2-1 in Verlander's last 9 starts. The over is 4-0-1 in Nick Tropeano's last 5 starts. The Angels right-hander has a 10.00 ERA in his last two starts and has been rocked for 20 hits in the 14 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Tropeano has a 6.97 ERA in his last two starts against the Astros and Houston was on a 5-1 run to the over before yesterday's low-scoring win. Tropeano had been on the DL due inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He'll be rusty here, Verlander's recent trend of giving up big hits will continue, and this one should fly over the total on a hitter-friendly afternoon in Anaheim. 10* OVER the total in the Los Angeles Angels game |
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07-21-18 | Red Sox v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox @ 6:10 ET - After yesterday's 1-0 pitchers duel most will be enticed to take the under 9.5 in this one Saturday but the pitching match-up should prove to be absolutely perfect for a slugfest here. The Tigers, overall, are certainly not a great team but they are hitting .268 versus left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them among the top five teams in the majors against southpaw hurlers. The Red Sox are starting lefty Brian Johnson here and he gave up 3 earned runs on 8 hits (including 2 homers) in just 4 and 1/3 innings when he faced Detroit last season. The Tigers counter with Michael Fiers in this one. I am well aware of the fact that he has had some success versus Boston in the past. However, this Red Sox team was scoring an average of 6.6 runs per game in the month of July prior to yesterday's 1-0 win. Also, even including yesterday's lackluster performance at the plate, the BoSox are hitting .295 in the month of July which ranks them #1 in the AL. In June, Boston ranked #2 in the AL for batting average and in May their .481 slugging percentage ranked them #2 out of all 30 MLB teams. The point is that a bounce back is likely after scoring just 1 run yesterday. The Red Sox have now stayed under in 3 straight games but only 3 times this entire season have they had an "under" streak go more than 3 games. This streak gets snapped Saturday! Fiers final start before the All Star break saw him allow "only" 3 earned runs against the Astros but they got to him for 9 hits in 6 innings and he struck out only 2. He won't be fooling the bats of Boston either! 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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07-21-18 | Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #966 Saturday 8* UNDER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 1:05 ET - At first glance one would think of jumping all over the "over" in this match-up. Both of these starting pitchers have high ERAs on the season and yesterday's game totaled 15 runs. However, the fact is that both of these pitchers are better than their full season ERA would lead you to believe and there is reason to believe they each come up with a strong start in this match-up. The Blue Jays Marcus Stroman has allowed ZERO earned runs in the 15 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus Baltimore. He has struck out 18 in those 15 and 1/3 innings and the O's are known as free swingers and also saw their lineup weakened by the departure of Manny Machado to the Dodgers. As for the Orioles Alex Cobb, this is a revenge start. Back on June 10th he did get roughed up by Baltimore but prior to that he had held them to a 1.42 ERA in his 3 prior starts against them! Cobb enters this start having allowed 3 earned runs or less in 9 of his last 14 starts. As for Stroman, he has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 4 of his last 5 starts. As you can see from the above, each of these pitchers has had good long-term success against the opponent they are matched up with today but the markets aren't evaluating this one properly and that has led to some good value here. The very first numbers popping up on this total were 8.5 but, as expected, it quickly moved to a 9 and I'll gladly take it in this one. The under is 7-0 in Stroman's last 7 starts! Only 4 of the Blue Jays 15 Saturday games so far this season have gone over the total. 8* UNDER the total in Toronto |
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07-20-18 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - Dylan Bundy has struggled since returning from the disabled list. The Baltimore right-hander has gone 0-2 with 11 runs (10 earned) given up in 7 and 1/3 innings and he has walked as many as he has struck out in those two outings. The Blue Jays Sam Gaviglio has also struggled in back to back starts as he has been rocked for 7 earned runs in 5 innings spanning his last two outings. The Orioles have been hitting a little better of late and they have scored at least 4 runs in 6 of their last 10 games. The Blue Jays have scored 4 or more runs in 6 of their last 9 games. Keep in mind a 4-4 game guarantees us of no less than a 5-4 final and that equates to a winner with the low total posted on this game. Yes Manny Machado is now a Dodger and not an Oriole but this lineup still has some pop. This is particularly true against a struggling pitcher like Gaviglio. The over is 4-2 in Gaviglio's starts where he is opposed by a right-handed starter this season. The over is 13-7 in Baltimore's road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The Orioles bullpen is getting hit at a .269 clip this season which ranks them 28th in the majors and the Blue Jays (.254) rank 22nd out of the 30 teams. In other words, both bullpens are susceptible in this match-up too. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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07-15-18 | Cubs v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
1st Half Game of the Year (pre-All Star break GOY) - Rickenbach MLB Game #911 Sunday 10* OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday's game flew over the total as the Cubs won 11-6. Chicago is now 3-0 to the over in their last 3 games. The Cubs are also 3-0 to the over in Jon Lester's last 3 starts. The southpaw has not looked quite as sharp in recent starts as he has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his last two outings. Also, Lester has given up 15 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts while allowing 8 runs (6 earned) in those two outings. In home games with a total of 8 or 8.5 runs, the Padres are 13-7 to the over this season. Also, when the Padres are on a losing streak of 3 or more games, the over is 7-3 this season! I know that Eric Lauer has a low ERA in recent starts. However, his full season numbers do tell more of a complete story on him and also he had been hit hard in each of his past two outings before the surprising success versus the Dodgers in his most recent start. Lauer had allowed 16 hits in the 10 innings spanning his two prior starts and both of those outings went over the total. Lauer has a 1.64 WHIP on the season so it is not as if he is a dominant starter and today he is facing a solid Cubs lineup! Chicago has averaged nearly 7 runs per game in their 8 July wins as they've won 8 of 11 games this month. The Padres have scored 4 or more runs in 6 of their last 10 games and they hit two homers off of Lester in his most recent start against them. The ball does carry better in day games compared to night games at Petco Field and I love the value here with the low total. 10* OVER the total in San Diego |
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07-15-18 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #923 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 2:10 ET - After Friday's game totaled 15 runs, yesterday's game ended up being a surprising 5-0 shutout win for Kansas City. Prior to that under, the Royals had gone 8-2 to the over their previous 10 games. The White Sox, prior to that shutout loss, had gone 16-6 to the over their last 22 games. The Royals Burch Smith got rocked for 4 earned runs in just 3 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start and the KC right-hander will be facing a Chicago team that was averaging scoring 5.4 runs per game in the month of July prior to yesterday's loss. As for the White Sox starter, Lucas Giolito, he is also likely to get roughed up here. Giolioto has an 8.65 ERA in his 9 home starts this season. Also, the Royals will be seeing him for the 3rd time already this season and this is a big edge for them here. The over is 6-2 in Chicago's last 8 games versus a right-handed starter and these two bullpens are also two of the worst in baseball with Kansas City's ERA actually ranking the Royals dead last in the majors for bullpen ERA. Both bullpens could certainly be called into play early here as Giolito has averaged only 5 and 1/2 innings per start his last 9 starts and the Royals Smith is unlikely to work deep here given his struggles at the MLB level as a starter (2013 too when most recently used in that role). In fact, KC is calling this a bullpen day as Smith is also working on short rest here. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game |
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07-15-18 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 1:05 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total but Toronto's Marcus Stroman is 2-6 with a 6.05 ERA in his 11 starts this season. Stroman had a solid ERA versus Boston last season but the Red Sox actually got to him for 23 hits in 17 and 1/3 innings. He was fortunate in 2 of the 3 outings is the point I am making here and his good fortune is likely to run out here! With Boston's 6-2 win yesterday, they've won 11 of their last 12 games and have averaged scoring 7.2 runs per game in these dozen games. Prior to the Blue Jays losing yesterday's game, they were 4-5 their last 9 games and they averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game during this stretch. You can see why it would not be a surprise, based on the above, to see at least a dozen runs scored in this game. Toronto should have little trouble with the offerings of Boston's Brian Johnson in this one. Though he has a low ERA, he did allow 8 hits in less than 5 innings of work in his most recent start. Also, the Blue Jays saw him twice last season and got to him for 15 hits in 11 innings of work spanning those two starts. The over is 12-5 this season in Toronto's road games where they are a money line dog in a range of +125 to +175. Also, the Blue Jays are 9-4-1 to the over in Sunday games this season and there is every reason to believe this will be another Sunday afternoon match-up that flies over the total. 8* OVER the total in Boston |
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07-14-18 | Yankees v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #973 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs New York Yankees @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game went over the total and the over is now 7-0 this season in Indians home games with a money line between -125 and +125 this season. Overall, on the season, Cleveland's home games are 32-14 to the over. Additionally, the Indians are 11-1 to the over in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. Cleveland starter Mike Clevinger has been getting hit harder of late as he has allowed 21 hits in the 17 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Also, he allowed 5 earned runs in his most recent start. The over is 6-2-1 in Clevinger's home starts this season and he does have a higher ERA at home compared to on the road this season. As for CC Sabathia, the Yankees left-hander allowed 5 earned runs in his most recent start too. Like Clevinger, he has been getting hit harder of late. Sabathia has allowed 37 hits in his last 31 innings. Look for the over to improve to 10-5 in Yankees Saturday games this season. The Indians last 5 games overall have all gone over the total and this one does too! 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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07-14-18 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 9 | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #967 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 2:10 ET - Yesterday's game totaled 15 runs and I expect more of the same on Saturday. The Royals are now 8-2 to the over their last 10 games. The White Sox are 16-6 to the over their last 22 games. Kansas City's Danny Duffy has an 8.10 ERA in his two starts versus Chicago this season and the White Sox have hammered 4 homers against him in those 10 innings. As for White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez, he has given up 28 hits while striking out just 3 batters in the 18 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts against the Royals. As you can see from those numbers, when he is facing KC he is not missing many bats! Overall, the over is 4-0 in the last 4 starts Lopez has made. As for Kansas City, they are 9-5-1 to the over in Duffy's last 15 starts. 8* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game |
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07-13-18 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #909 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:15 ET - Both teams were off yesterday. The Reds are 14-3-2 to the over their last 19 games! Cincinnati is averaging scoring 6.6 runs per game their past 11 games. The Cardinals are off of a shutout loss Wednesday but they entered that game having gone 7-3 to the over in their 10 prior games. St Louis had averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game in that 10-game stretch. Friday marks the 15th time this season the Cardinals are playing after a day off and so far only 5 of these spots have stayed under the total. The Reds are 30-18 to the over this season when off of a loss. Also, Cincinnati is on a 7-1 run to the over when they're facing a team with a winning record. The Reds hand the ball to Matt Harvey for this one and though he allowed only 2 earned runs in his most recent start he did give up 9 hits in less than 6 innings of work and the road hasn't been kind to Harvey this season. On enemy mounds this season, Harvey is 1-4 with a 5.21 ERA on the year. The Cincinnati right-hander faced the Cardinals last month and allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings thanks in large part to allowing 3 homers in that one. He'll be opposed by Carlos Martinez Friday. The St Louis right-hander allowed 5 earned runs in less than 4 innings in his most recent start versus the Reds and that was just last month. Martinez has walked 14 in less than 17 innings of work in his last 3 starts versus Cincinnati. Only 2 of his 8 home starts this season have resulted in an under as he has received great run support in home games and that should certainly continue here. 10* OVER the total in St Louis |
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07-13-18 | Rangers v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Friday 8* OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers @ 7:05 ET - The Rangers were off yesterday while the Orioles lost 5-4 in a make-up game versus the Phillies. As bad as Baltimore is this season, they should take advantage of facing a struggling Cole Hamels Friday. The Rangers southpaw is winless in his last 3 starts and he has compiled an ugly 11.81 ERA and 2.44 WHIP in those 3 outings. There have been no unders in any of his last 3 starts. As for the Orioles Alex Cobb, he has been roughed up in 5 of his last 6 outings. The over is 4-2 in his last 6 starts and he has a 6.57 ERA on the season. Cobb has gone 0-4 in his five home starts this year. Though Cobb was successful last season in a start against the Rangers, he did allow two homers in that outing and he is clearly not the pitcher this season that he has been in prior seasons. As for Texas left-hander Hamels, facing Baltimore is unlikely to cure what ails him. Hamels is 1-4 in 6 career starts versus the Orioles and has been roughed up to the tune of a 6.62 ERA in his 3 most recent starts against the O's. That includes allowing 3 homers at Baltimore in his most recent meeting with them! The Orioles enter this game having had just 2 unders in their last 7 games. While the Rangers have been trending under lately, this pitching match-up is going to bring out the best in both lineups. This will be the 12th time this season that the Rangers are playing after an off day. So far only 4 of those spots resulted in an under. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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07-12-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:10 ET - With Robbie Ray having strong numbers on the season and Kyle Freeland having strong numbers at home this season, this total is being kept lower than it should be. Although the wind will be blowing in this afternoon it won't be a strong wind and, keep in mind, the ball carries even better in afternoon games than it does at night. The hitter-friendly nature of Coors Field helped produce 21 runs and that was the 2nd time in 4 games that the Diamondbacks have been involved in a game that produced more than 20 runs. Both of these teams hit lefties well and this afternoon game is a match-up of southpaws. In the National League, only the Braves have a higher slugging percentage versus left-handers than the Rockies and Diamondbacks do. Also, Arizona's Ray comes into this game having allowed 5 homers in his last 2 starts and he has compiled a 9.64 ERA in those two starts. As for Freeland, though his recent numbers are strong, the Diamondbacks lineup is known for giving him some trouble and they just faced him a month ago, In his last 3 starts versus Arizona, Freeland has a 6.23 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP. As you can see, allowing nearly 2 base runners per inning in his last 3 starts versus the Diamondbacks he is actually fortunate the damage hasn't been even worse. I suspect the damage will be worse today! In road games where their money line is between -125 and +125, Arizona is 19-7 to the over this season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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07-12-18 | A's v. Astros OVER 8 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Oakland A's @ 2:10 ET - Most will look at the under here based on two solid starting pitchers on the mound. In fact this total has already moved from an 8.5 to an 8 as of game day morning. However, the A's Trevor Cahill is making his first in nearly six weeks as he had been on the disabled list. Also, the over is 3-0 in his 4 road starts this season and Cahill has a 5.66 ERA away from home this season. The Astros, especially off of a loss yesterday, should get to him early and often here. As for Houston's Charlie Morton, he has a rather mediocre 4.50 ERA in his two career starts versus Oakland and he allowed 6 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start versus the A's. Oakland has been very hot at the plate and I just don't see Morton shutting them down. In fact, the A's have scored 4 runs or more in 7 of their last 8 games. Keep in mind, a 4-4 game guarantees us of a win here as the game would have to end with at least 9 runs if each team gets to 4. I look for Cahill to be a little rusty and for his less than stellar road performances to continue. As for the A's, they are averaging 5.1 runs per game their last 8 games and they have had some success versus Morton. Oakland is 6-2 to the over this season as a road dog in a range of +175 to +250. The Astros are playing their 30th day game this season and, so far, only 11 of their day games this season have stayed under the total! 8* OVER the total in Houston |
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07-11-18 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - I know it seems tough to take an over with Chris Sale on the mound but the Red Sox have been giving him plenty of run support. Each of his last two starts have gone over the total as Boston has averaged scoring 10.5 runs per game. Also, the Red Sox enter this game absolutely red hot at the plate. The over is 7-3 in Boston's last 10 games as they've averaged scoring 7.5 runs per game. Even though Sale has been fantastic on the mound, this will be the 2nd time in a span of two months and the last time he hosted the Rangers at Fenway Park he allowed 4 runs (3 earned). Texas scored 4 runs last night and they've averaged scoring 5.2 runs per game their last 23 games! Of course the key to this play is the Rangers Bartolo Colon getting rocked and I have little doubt about that! Though he held the Red Sox to 4 earned runs in his early May start against Boston, all 4 runs came via the long ball! Yes Colon allowed 4 homers in that game and now he faces the powerful (and red hot) BoSox lineup at Fenway Park! This could get ugly in a hurry and I expect it to fly over the total early as a result. Colon has allowed 22 homers in his 16 starts this season and, even off of a solid road start against a poor Tigers team at Detroit, he has compiled a 7.24 ERA in his last 5 road starts! Look for the over to improve to 5-1 in the last 6 games the Red Sox have played against teams with a losing record. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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07-11-18 | Cubs v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs @ 3:45 ET - This total has dropped from an 8.5 to a 7.5 and this is offering huge value on the over. The drop is understood because the Giants Johnny Cueto has great full season numbers and so too does Mike Montgomery. Also, these teams have scored a total of only 5 runs in the first two games of this series. That said, the move on this total does make perfect sense. However, the reason it does not make sense is absolutely why I am all "over" the "over" at AT & T Park this afternoon. The ball does tend to carry better in afternoon games in San Francisco and temperatures will warm to near 70 degrees and the wind will be blowing out a good clip. Additionally, Cueto is still unproven since his time on the disabled list. He made one start (last week) and he allowed 5 earned runs on 10 hits (including 2 homers) in just 5 innings of work! As for Montgomery, he is in poor current form. The Cubs southpaw has a 1.63 WHIP and a 5.62 ERA in his last 3 starts! The over is 2-1 in Montgomery's last 3 starts and the over is 3-0 in Cueto's 3 home starts this season! The over is 16-10 this season in San Francisco's home games where their money line is in a range of -125 to +125. The Giants are also 10-4 to the over this season in Wednesday games. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco |
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07-11-18 | Royals v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 1:10 ET - The Royals are starting Burch Smith. He has been working out of the bullpen and it will be his first MLB start since 2013. The Kansas City right-hander has a major match-up issue in this one. He has been hit by a better than .300 average by left-handed hitters this season. Smith is going to be facing a Twins lineup that is loaded on that side of the plate. Other than catchers, nearly every single Minnesota position player is either a left-handed stick or a switch-hitter. While the Twins should certainly crush the ball this afternoon, look for the Royals to also join the "hit parade" today! KC should pound Lance Lynn. I am well aware of the fact that Lynn is coming off of a strong start but he entered that start having allowed 12 runs (11 earned) in less than 7 innings spanning his two prior starts. Only 1 of Lynn's 5 career starts versus the Royals has resulted in an under. Though Lynn has only allowed 2 earned runs in each of his last two starts versus Kansas City, he has been fortunate. Lynn had a 1.67 WHIP in those two outings! He won't be so fortunate here. The Royals are confident coming off of last night's big win where they scored 9 runs and KC has averaged 10 hits per game their last 7 games. The over is 6-2 in the Royals last 8 games. The over is a long-term 100-69 in Twins games versus teams with a losing record. 8* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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07-10-18 | Royals v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #969 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 ET - Yesterday's game stayed well under the total but the Royals were 7-3 to the over in their 10 prior games. Kansas City hasn't recorded back to back unders since two weeks ago. The Twins bullpen and the Royals bullpen are ranked as the two worst in the majors in terms of opponents batting average. KC's relievers are also ranked dead last for bullpen ERA on the year. Both bullpens could certainly be called upon early here. The Royals Ian Kennedy averages just 5 and 1/3 inning per start and he has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts. He also has allowed 4 homers in his last 3 starts versus the Twins even though these 3 outings saw him compile a total of only 10 and 2/3 innings! As for Aaron Slegers, his first start of this season was a good one but it came against the free-swinging Orioles and yet he still recorded only 2 strikeouts. I am well aware of the fact that the Royals, of course, fall into the same class of team as Baltimore. However, the point is that Slegers one start against a bad O's team does not mean he has "arrived". In his few MLB appearances (6 games with 4 starts included) he has a 4.73 ERA. In the minors this season he has been hit a .260 clip and last season he was hit at .266 clip. With these types of numbers in the minors it would not surprise to see him get hit at a .300 clip in the majors. In other words, Slegers one good start (in my book) is a bit of a fluke. Long-term the over is 100-69 in Twins games versus teams with a losing record and both lineups get back on track after yesterday's pitchers' duel. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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07-10-18 | Nationals v. Pirates OVER 9 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #951 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - I had the over in this match-up yesterday and I did release it early when 8.5 was still available. However, it quickly moved to 9 yesterday and then eventually even move to a 9.5 as the day went on. Inexplicably, even though the game had 7 runs by the 2nd inning and 9 runs by the top of the 6th, the game did end with exactly 9 runs. I am coming right back with the same play today as this is another pitching match-up that should lead to an over. Jeremy Hellickson of the Nationals has allowed 12 runs (11 earned) on 16 hits (including 3 homers) in the 8 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts! Joe Musgrove of the Pirates has struggled in each of his last two home starts as he has allowed 11 earned runs on 15 hits in 8 and 1/3 innings! Pittsburgh has gone 4-0 to the over in his last 4 starts. Washington has allowed double digits in runs quite often of late and the last 4 times they did not, their following game went over all 4 times - a perfect 4-0 to the over. That said, after allowing "only" 6 runs yesterday, look for the Nationals to give up big runs today and this match-up with the Pirates flies over the total. I am happy to test the double perfect angles here combining for an 8-0 run. 8* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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07-09-18 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 0-5 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #913 Monday 8* OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - With Boston's 7-4 win yesterday, the over is now 6-2 in their last 8 games. The Red Sox have averaged scoring 7 runs per game in helping lead the way to an 11-2 record in their last 13 games. While their offense is hot the key to the over here is that Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez can not be trusted in this spot in my opinion. He faced the Rangers earlier this season and though he piled up strikeouts, Rodriguez allowed 3 homers in that game. The wind will be blowing out to left field tonight at Fenway Park which means it will be a very hitter-friendly night at a very hitter-friendly venue. Though Rodriguez is off of a strong start in his last outing that came against an NL team that was not familiar with him. In his last two starts versus AL teams Rodgriguez gave up 10 runs (9 earned) in 10 innings of work! Tonight will mark the 30th time this season that Texas has faced a left-handed starter and, so far, only 10 games have resulted in an under! Also, the Rangers are 7-3 to the over in Monday games. Boston will tee off against Mike Minor tonight as the Red Sox have a .492 slugging percentage at home this season. Minor has been pitching well of late but this is a very tough assignment for him and he has a 6.82 ERA in road games this season. The Red Sox have an added edge here in that they already faced him this season. Minor had a quality start then but facing them at Fenway Park where he has allowed 3 homers in his last 2 starts will prove much tougher. 8* OVER the total in Boston |
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