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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-21-16 | Blue Jays v. Twins OVER 9 | 3-5 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 3 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 runs in Minnesota vs Toronto @ 2:10 ET Saturday - The Blue Jays J.A. Happ got roughed up in his most recent start so certainly he'll be looking to bounce back. The trouble is he's facing a Minnesota team that has hammered him to the tune of 11 runs (9 earned) on 15 hits (including 4 homers) in his last 2 starts against them. Both of those outings came in the past two seasons and Happ totaled only 7 innings in the two starts combined. The Twins, entering Friday's action, had averaged 4.6 runs per game in their last 7 games so they are starting to have a little more confidence at the plate after a dismal start this season. They'll need all the runs they can get Saturday because Pat Dean will be making his first ever MLB start. As a reliever this season he's been rocked in his 8 innings of work. The southpaw hadn't exactly been setting the world on fire in the minors either and he faces a Blue Jays team that led the majors last season in slugging percentage (.463) against left-handed pitching. In road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the Blue Jays have gone 26-18 to the over the past three seasons. As a home dog of +125 to +150, the Twins have gone 24-11 to the over the past three seasons. Also, before Thursday's series opener stayed under the total, the Blue Jays had recorded 5 straight overs and the Twins had been 10-3 to the over in May. Look for the hot hitting to resume Saturday based on this pitching match-up. *8* OVER in Minnesota |
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05-20-16 | Indians v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Boston vs Cleveland @ 7:10 ET - The Indians are off of a 7-2 in at Cincinnati last night that went over the total. In their last 15 games, Cleveland has stayed under the total only 3 times. The Indians now visit a hitter-friendly park and face one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball as Cleveland faces the Red Sox at Fenway Park. Boston is on an 8-1-1 run to the over and the weather is also expected to be favorable for an over on Friday night. Even though Corey Kluber is a "big name pitcher" for Cleveland, the right-hander has given up 9 earned runs in his last two starts spanning only 9 and 1/3 innings of work. Also, he faced Boston in early April and got clobbered. By the way, the Red Sox Clay Buchholz faced the Indians in early April and he also got hammered. Buchholz comes into this start in poor current form as well as he has allowed 9 earned run in his last 2 starts spanning only 11 innings of work. The Red Sox right-hander has given up 3 homers in his last two starts as well and both of those outings were at home. This total looks to be moving toward a 9 and the over is already 7-2 this season in Boston's games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Red Sox are coming off of a win Wednesday and the over is 15-8 in Boston's games this season when they are off of a win. As for the Indians, the over is 21-11 in their games on grass this season and 17-9 in Cleveland's games against right-handed starters. The Red Sox lineup has been producing runs like crazy while the Indians lineup is hotter than it's been all season. All signs are therefore pointing to a slugfest at Wrigley Field Friday night. *10* OVER in Boston |
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05-19-16 | Indians v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 8.5 runs -105 in Cincinnati vs Cleveland @ 7:10 ET - Josh Tomlin of the Indians is 5-0 on the season. However, he has allowed 6 homers in his last 4 starts and, in his last three starts he has compiled a 4.42 ERA. The last time he faced the Reds Tomlin gave up 6 runs in less than 5 innings of work. The last time he pitched at Cincinnati Tomlin gave up 6 earned runs in only 4 innings of work. Cincy has scored 6 runs or more (plus had 10 hits or more) in 3 of their last 4 games. The Reds stay hot at the plate tonight and they'll need it because the Indians have beaten Cincinnati three straight times and averaged 12 runs per game in those three victories. The Tribe should have no problems with the offerings of Tim Adleman. He is making just his 4th start of the season and he has struggled more with each start he's made. 7 baserunners in 5 innings two starts ago and then 10 baserunners in 5 innings in his last start. That outing came against a Phillies team that certainly has not been an offensive juggernaut this season. That said, the way the Indians are hitting the ball, they should do damage early and often against Adleman. Another key factor here is that the Cincy bullpen is easily one of the worst in baseball so Cleveland should be piling up runs throughout Thursday's contest. The over is 16-9 in Indians games against right-handed starters this season and 20-11 in their games on grass. The over is 18-10 in Reds games against right-handed starters this season. 9 of the last 13 meetings between these teams have gone over the total and that strong trend continues Thursday. *10* OVER in Cincinnati |
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05-19-16 | Mariners v. Orioles OVER 9 | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 runs +115 in Baltimore vs Seattle @ 12:35 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total despite 9 extra base hits in the game including 3 homers. The key was that the 3 homers were all solo bombs. I don't expect that to be the case today based on the starting pitching match-up in this one. The Mariners will have Nate Karns on the mound. The right-hander has given up 4 homers in his 4 road starts this season. Baltimore is second in the majors for home runs this season with 57 in their 38 games so far this year. Karns got crushed in his only daytime start this season. The Mariners lineup should give him plenty of run support though as they "tee off" against Tyler Wilson today. The Orioles right-hander has some decent numbers this season but he's still making just the 10th MLB start of his young career. Last season he got hit at a .289 clip and he does not pile up the strikeouts. In other words, he's a "pitches to contact" type of pitcher and he's facing a Mariners lineup that, before being held to just 2 runs yesterday, had averaged 5.7 runs per game in their last 7 games. The M's were shutout once in that 7 game stretch but in the other 6 games Seattle averaged nearly 7 runs and 10 hits per game. The lineup is stepping to the plate with confidence and I am certainly not sold yet on Wilson as being a "shut down" hurler. The Mariners have had 6 road games this season with posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and not a single one stayed under the total. The Orioles are 9-2-1 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the over is 6-2-1 in O's day games this season. *8* OVER in Baltimore |
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05-18-16 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs -102 in Oakland vs Texas @ 3:35 ET - This is truly a contrarian play as many are likely to be looking for a pitchers duel here based on the low ERAs of these two hurlers. This is helping to give line value here as the juice has already moved from the over side to the under side in this one as of early gameday morning. A crazy 9th inning is what allowed yesterday's game to soar over the total as both bullpens suffered collapses. That is good news if we need some late runs in this one as both pens are "rattled". However, I don't expect to need that as I look for both of these starting pitchers to have some issues. Texas is looking to avoid a sweep and the over is 10-7 this season in Rangers games when they are off of a loss. They are facing Rich Hill who has enjoyed some surprising early season success but whom is 0-3 with a 4.85 ERA in his home starts this season. The journeyman southpaw is having some issues with command of his pitches and has walked 3 or more batters in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Rangers have a potent enough offense to make him pay as they are averaging 6 runs per game in their last 11 games and it will be a mild afternoon in Oakland with the wind blowing out to right. As far as the A's offense, this will be the 4th straight southpaw starter they are facing. The over is 5-2 in Athletics games against left-handed starters this season. It tends to help a lineup when they see a lefty in consecutive outings and in this case it's been lefty-lefty-lefty-lefty for the A's to tee off against. Like Hill, Martin Perez of the Rangers is having some issues with command of his pitches and the left-hander also has given up 12 earned runs in his last 2 starts against Oakland and those spanned a total of less than 9 innings! Perez has more walks than strikeouts in his road starts this season and the A's confidence at the plate is soaring right now as they have scored at least 5 runs and reached double digits in hits in 5 of their last 8 games. The over is 8-2 in the Rangers last 10 games and 10-3 in the A's last 13 games. More of the same Wednesday afternoon. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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05-18-16 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs -105 in Detroit vs Minnesota @ 1:10 ET - Yesterday's game stayed just under the total as it was posted at a 9.5 but ended up a 7-2 Tigers win. The total for this early afternoon game Wednesday opened up at a 9 but has dropped to an 8.5 and there is excellent line value here with the over. The "fade" is on for the Twins Ricky Nolasco. The veteran right-hander has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his last 6 starts. Nolasco has a 7.56 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He has been reached for 13 runs (11 earned) in his last 14 innings of work against the Tigers. That includes 1 start two weeks ago and 2 starts last season. So the powerful Detroit lineup is getting a 2nd look at him in a short period of time and the Tigers are starting to get it going at the plate with 23 runs in their current 3-game winning streak. Detroit will need all the runs they can get today because I am calling for Justin Verlander to get roughed up some as well. The veteran Tigers right-hander is off of back to back strong outings but he is winless in his two day game starts this season with a 5.56 ERA. Last season Verlander went 2-5 with a 5.10 ERA in his day game starts. The Twins are quite familiar with Verlander since he's been with division rival Detroit for his entire career and a number of Minnesota hitters have enjoyed some good success against him. The over is 13-2 in Detroit day games this season! The over is 3-1 in Verlander's home starts this season and the over is 5-1 in Nolasco's starts this season. As a road dog of +125 to +150, the Twins have gone 7-2 to the over this season. *8* OVER in Detroit |
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05-17-16 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs +105 in Detroit vs Minnesota @ 7:10 ET - These teams exploded for 18 runs yesterday and the Twins offense is certainly coming to life as they have now averaged 6.25 runs per game in their last 4 games. The Tigers lineup has pounded out 13 or more hits in 3 of their last 5 games and the over is 8-2 in Detroit's last 10 games and 13-3-1 in the Twins last 17 games. With this pitching match-up today featuring a pair of fading veteran hurlers I look for both teams to continue pounding the ball tonight. Both of these starting pitchers have already seen the better years of their career. Mike Pelfrey of the Tigers faced the Twins two weeks ago and got pounded for 5 earned runs in 4 innings of work. Phil Hughes of Minnesota faced the Tigers a little over two weeks ago and he gave up 4 earned runs in just 5 innings on the mound. Overall, Hughes has a 12.27 ERA and 2.09 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Detroit's Pelfrey is off of a surprisingly "decent" start at Baltimore in his last outing but he previously allowed 5 earned runs in each of his 3 prior starts. He's winless on the season and has a 9.39 ERA in his home starts on the year. The Twins are 14-6 to the over in night games this season and 6-1 to the over this season in their games against teams with a losing record. The Tigers are 11-4 to the over this season in their home games and also 22-9 to the over this season in their games against a right-handed starter. *10* OVER in Detroit |
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05-16-16 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 105 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs +105 in Detroit vs Minnesota @ 7:10 ET - The Tigers Jordan Zimmerman certainly has impressed early this season. However, after a 5-0 start he's now lost 2 straight and Monday he'll be facing a Twins team that is off of back to back wins and scored 17 runs in their 3-game set at Cleveland over the weekend. The point is that Minnesota could absolutely give Zimmerman some trouble here. As well as the Detroit right-hander has pitched early this season his strikeout numbers were down in his past two starts and he did allow 14 hits in his 15 innings of work. Solid outings nonetheless but it's not like the guy has been unhittable and the Twins are swinging the sticks better in recent games. Minnesota has had just 2 unders in their 13 games in the month of May! The Twins are also 7-2 to the over when off of a win this season and they also are 5-1 to the over when facing a team with a losing record. The Tigers are 10-4 to the over in May and also 10-4 to the over in their home games this season. Detroit also is 21-9 to the over in their games against right-handed starters this season. Jose Berrios gets the start for Minny tonight and he has a 1.75 WHIP in his 3 starts this year and his ugly 6.28 ERA could easily be even worse. The hungry Tigers (slumping for weeks) got a much needed win yesterday and produced 6 runs on 13 hits. Detroit is happy to be back home and I look for them to rally after yesterday's win. They should score plenty tonight but the Twins are starting to put things together at the plate and this should be a close, but high-scoring, game all the way. The Minnesota bullpen has a 5.89 ERA on the road this season and the Tigers pen has a 5.10 ERA at home this season. Big runs at Comerica Park tonight. *10* OVER 8.5 in Detroit |
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05-16-16 | Reds v. Indians OVER 8.5 | 6-15 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs -105 in Cleveland vs Cincinnati @ 6:10 ET - Though it certainly is NOT a "perfect play it every time no matter what" type of angle, I do love looking for "overs" in a situation where the home team's pitcher is likely to get rocked. That's because generally teams hit better at home than on the road so you know the home team should certainly "get theirs". That said, if you know things are looking up for the road team to also "get theirs" you've got a great shot at the over! The Reds should absolutely pound the Indians Cody Anderson in this match-up. The Cleveland right-hander is winless in his five starts this season and he has compiled a 9.45 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP in his 3 home starts. Anderson has given up 7 homers in his 5 starts this season and he will face some tough left-handed lumber in the Reds lineup tonight and the wind is expected to be blowing out to right field. Cincinnati has some confidence coming into this interleague match-up as the Reds got a big 9-4 win at Philly yesterday. Cincy is only 5-5 in their last 10 games but the offense has produced an average of 5.3 runs per game during this stretch. Offense is certainly not the strong suit of the Indians but they face the Reds John Lamb tonight and he's averaged only 5 innings in his two starts this season. That means a Cincy bullpen that has a 6.49 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the road is likely to be exposed tonight. Also, Lamb is still a guy who, at the MLB level, has a 1-5 record with a 5.13 ERA and he's been hit at a .283 clip by big league hitters. The Indians should score their fair share tonight off of Lamb and the beleaguered Reds pen. The over is 11-6 in Cleveland's home games and that includes a solid 4-1 to the over in Indians home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is 8-4 in Reds games this season when they are off of a win. *8* OVER in Cleveland |
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05-15-16 | Mets v. Rockies OVER 10 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10 runs +105 in Colorado vs New York Mets @ 4:10 ET - This match-up actually stayed under the closing total yesterday as the line moved to 11.5 rather early in the day and, amazingly, the game got to 7-4 by the top of the 6th and then went scoreless the rest of the way. The teams did combine for 25 hits and I look for more hot hitting today. Even though the Mets Jacob deGrom has good career numbers against the Rockies a lot of that has to do with the fact that he has never faced them at hitter friendly Coors Field. This will be deGrom's first ever start at Colorado and the Rockies have pounded out at least a dozen hits in 4 of the first 5 games of this 6 game homestand. The Mets deGrom has only allowed a total of 5 earned runs in his last two starts but he did give up 16 hits in the 12 innings of work. Baserunners at Coors Field lead to problems in a hurry and that is especially true in an afternoon game. Yes the wind will be blowing in and it will be a little cool this afternoon but that thin and air (especially in an afternoon game) is so favorable for the hitters at Coors Field. That is a big reason why you also see the huge home/away disparity with Tyler Chatwood's numbers for the Rockies. The right-hander gets the start for Colorado this afternoon and, while he has pitched very well on the road, he has been rocked at home this season. Chatwood has gone 0-3 with a 7.87 ERA in his three home starts this season. I expect both Chatwood and deGrom (welcome to Coors Field!) to struggle this afternoon and, even though it may not be needed, there certainly should be more late inning runs than what we saw yesterday. The Rockies bullpen has a 5.71 ERA in home games this season. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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05-15-16 | White Sox v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs -105 in New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:05 ET - The wind will be blowing out to right at a strong clip throughout this game and temperatures will be rather pleasant...right around 60 degrees. It should be a great afternoon for baseball in the Bronx and an especially great afternoon for crushing the baseball! That could be key to the potential for a "home run derby" type of game here. Even though Masahiro Tanaka has some good overall numbers this season, he is off of a start where he allowed 6 earned runs in 7 innings and that start was here at home and the right-hander was tagged for 3 homers in the outing! The White Sox send Miguel Gonzalez to the mound for this one and, though he's off of a decent start one should not overlook his other start this season. That outing was in late April and Gonzalez gave up 5 earned runs on 11 hits in only 5 innings of work. In his last start in the Bronx, which came last April, the White Sox right-hander gave up 5 earned runs in only 4 innings of work. He gave up a homer in that start and has allowed a home run in each of his two starts this season as well. Yesterday's 2-1 pitchers duel means a breakout game can be expected this afternoon as each of these clubs had been rolling heading into yesterday. The over was 7-1 in the White Sox last 8 games and they averaged nearly 7 runs per game during this hot streak. The over was 6-1 in the Yankees prior 7 games and they averaged 5 runs per game during the hot streak. *8* OVER in NY Yankees |
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05-14-16 | Twins v. Indians OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 105 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs +105 in Cleveland vs Minnesota @ 4:10 ET - This can be categorized as a bit of a contrarian play. I say that because I am well aware of the fact that it will be a bit of a "raw" afternoon in Cleveland and the wind will be blowing in and the temperatures will only get cooler as the game goes along. However, one of the keys in a situation like this is it tends to give line value to the over. The conditions don't seem ideal but the current trending of both of these clubs as well as current struggles for both of these hurlers has me backing the over in a big way Saturday. Yesterday's 7-6 Cleveland win means that Minnesota has gone over the total to the tune of 8-1-1 in their 10 games this month. As for the Indians, they have had only 2 unders in their last 8 games. The Twins Ervin Santana just returned from the disabled list and the results were concerning. Santana gave up 7 hits and 3 walks in only 3 and 1/3 innings. Things are unlikely to improve for the struggling right-hander today as he gave up 8 earned runs on 10 hits in only 2 and 2/3 innings in his last start at Cleveland! The key "X factor" to this play is that Corey Kluber is a big name pitcher for the Indians but I fully expect him to struggle here. He has allowed 8 earned runs in his last 9 and 2/3 innings of work against Minny and he is coming off of a rough outing in his most recent start. Kluber gave up 5 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work at Houston on Monday. The over is 10-5 in Cleveland home games this season. Also, the over is 10-4 in Indians divisional games this season. *10* OVER in Cleveland |
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05-14-16 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 runs -110 in Boston vs Houston @ 1:05 ET - Mild afternoon in Boston and the wind will be blowing out at Fenway Park. Not only that but the wind is expected to also get a little stronger as the game goes on. Needless to say it will not be a good day to be a pitcher at Fenway! Both these starting pitchers have concerns about the long ball too. The Astros Colin McHugh has given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts and he gave up 5 earned runs on 10 hits in only 4 innings of work in a home start against the Red Sox earlier this season. Boston's Clay Buchholz has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his 6 starts this season and that includes a start at Houston last month when he gave up 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work. He's allowed 6 homers in his 7 starts this season. Boston's 7-6 loss yesterday ended their 5 game winning streak but it was the 6th straight over for the Red Sox as they have averaged an incredible 10.3 runs per game during this 6-game stretch. The Astros have now scored at least 5 runs in 7 of their last 11 games. Houston is now 12-5 to the over in road games this season. Also, the over is now 16-8 in Astros road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the past three seasons. In other words, the high total on today's game is likely justified! As for the Red Sox, the over is 7-2 this season in their games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *8* OVER in Boston |
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05-13-16 | Mets v. Rockies OVER 10 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10 runs -105 in Colorado vs New York Mets @ 8:40 ET - Temps will get up into the mid-70s today before cooling off this evening in Denver. Though a cool front is coming in and the wind will likely be blowing in from right field, the air will still be extremely dry and balls hit well to center and left field should carry well given the expected win direction. The key here is we are getting some line value because these pitchers have some good numbers and likely because of the forecast wind condition. Keep in mind, totals at Coors Field are usually in the 11 range and oftentimes even up into the 12 range. With this one opening up at a 10.5 and then moving down to a 10, I am not going to hesitate to get involved. Sure, Matt Harvey has good career numbers against the Rockies but he's never faced them at hitter-friendly Coors Field! As for Jon Gray, the last time he faced the Mets was in Colorado in August and he gave up 7 earned runs in less than 2 innings of work. Gray has an 11.42 ERA in his two home starts this season. Harvey is coming off of a great outing but that was against a Padres team that has one of the weakest lineups in baseball. Harvey's first 5 starts this season, saw him allow 42 hits in 34 innings and truly he has faced a lot of struggles offenses this season. 5 of the 6 games saw him face teams that are hitting .236 or less this season. The other one was against a Royals team that ranks 26th out of 30 teams for runs scored this season! Now Harvey will face a Rockies team that is hitting .292 in home games which is tops in the NL and 2nd in MLB overall. The over is 10-5 this season in Colorado home games and 3-1 when the Rockies are coming off of an off day. The Mets weren't off yesterday but they may as well have been. They got shut out by Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. The over is 3-0 this season in Mets games when they are off of a shutout loss. Also, the past three seasons combined, the over is 24-14 in Mets games when they are a small road favorite (up to -125). Â *10* OVER in Colorado |
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05-13-16 | Pirates v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 or 9 runs in Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 2:20 ET - The wind is expected to be blowing out at Wrigley Field for this afternoon match-up. There is a cold front on the way and it's bringing some rain but this game should already be in the books before the weather switches around this evening in Chicago. As for this afternoon, the weather will be ideal for baseball and ideal for the hitters with the wind blowing out at a decent clip. We get a nice "break" on the total here because these starting pitchers each have some nice numbers on the season. The key here is that when weather conditions are like they are expected to be this afternoon in Chicago, Wrigley Field can make a hurler feel like he is pitching in a bandbox! The Pirates just saw Jason Hammel earlier this month so the quick second look helps plus he's been pitching to contact a lot this season. His strikeout numbers are down. That's bad news on an afternoon like what is expected at Wrigley today. Pittsburgh will have Francisco Liriano on the mound and the southpaw has allowed 5 homers in his 4 road starts this season. The Cubs have hit 37 homers in their 33 games this season and the Cubbies and Bucs slugging percentages rank among the top teams in the NL this season. The Cubs are off of a 1-0 pitchers duel defeat Wednesday but 8 of their prior 10 games went over the total. The Pirates have had just 2 unders in their last 9 games. The over is 26-12 when Pittsburgh is coming off of an off day the past three seasons. Also, the over is 9-3 in Pirates days games this season and 11-3 in Pittsburgh's games against teams with a winning record. The Cubs divisional games are 11-3 to the over this season and the Cubbies are 5-1 to the over when they are playing after a day off this season. Just like the Pirates, the over is 9-3 in Cubs day games this season. *8* OVER in Chicago Cubs |
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05-12-16 | Tigers v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 105 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs +105 in Baltimore vs Detroit @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles are hot. Not only have they won four straight games but they have scored an average of 7.5 runs per game during this streak while also averaging 12.5 hits per game. Now, on Thursday, the O's get the luxury of teeing off against the Tigers Mike Pelfrey. The veteran right-hander has been a model of consistency for Detroit but not in a good way! Pelfrey has given up 5 earned runs in each of his last three starts! Also, the Tigers righty has walked 14 while striking out just 12 in his last five starts. In his last 3 starts against Baltimore, Pelfrey allowed only 3 earned runs in each outing but he certainly was fortunate. He gave up 27 hits in those 3 starts even though they spanned less than 17 innings of work! The only good news for Tigers fans tonight is that at least their lineup should make some noise as well. Detroit is off of a disastrous game at Washington yesterday that felt much worse than the 3-2 final score. The Tigers struck out 20 times in the game and are anxious to redeem themselves against Ubaldo Jimenez tonight. The Orioles right-hander is only 1-2 with a 5.30 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, against the Tigers, Jimenez gave up at least 6 earned runs against them in each of his two outings last season even though he didn't make it out of the 5th inning of either start. The over is 12-4 in Detroit's games against teams with a winning record this season. The over is 5-2 this season in Orioles games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *10* OVER in Baltimore |
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05-11-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10.5 runs -105 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 3:10 ET - Yesterday's game easily stayed under the total but it was a 'quirky' result to say the last. The Diamondbacks pounded out 14 hits Tuesday but they left 10 men on base. The Rockies went an insane 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position yesterday. That is not a result you are likely to see again at Coors Field anytime soon. After being held to just 1 run in yesterday's game, look for the Rockies to get right back on track here. Colorado should have no trouble with the offerings of Robbie Ray as they just saw him in Arizona less than 2 weeks ago and they pounded him for 5 earned runs in just 4 innings of work. The Rockies got 4 homers off of Ray in that game! The Diamondbacks southpaw has an 8.03 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The only good news for Ray today is that he should have plenty of run support behind him. The Diamondbacks have averaged 6 runs and 11 hits per game during their current 5 game winning streak. Though Chad Bettis held them to 3 earned runs when he faced them in Arizona, the Rockies right-hander did given up 9 hits in his 6 innings on the mound. Overall, Bettis has been getting hit hard recently with 8 earned runs on 17 hits in his last 12 innings of work. The Rockies hitting production at home ranks among the best in the league but their bullpen work at home ranks them among the worst in the league in that category. With that said, this one is likely to turn into a slugfest Wednesday afternoon. Even with yesterday's surprising under, the over is still 9-5 in Rockies home games this season. Also, Colorado is 6-3 to the over in their 9 games against left-handed starters this season. The over is also 17-7 the last 3 seasons in Arizona games when they enter on a winning streak of 3 games or more. In their 8 Diamondbacks day games so far this season, only 2 have resulted in unders. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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05-10-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11 runs +105 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 8:40 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Rubby de la Rosa pitched quite well before struggling in his most recent outing. I also know he's enjoyed some surprising success at Coors Field in recent outings. However, the way he struggled at Miami seemed to be a bit of a mechanical flaw that I don't see him turning around from one outing to the next. Also, he's now 0-2 on the road this season with a 5.22 ERA. The Diamondbacks right-hander also got rocked by the Rockies when he faced them in Arizona last July. Overall, de la Rosa has allowed 9 earned runs in the 11 innings spanning his last two starts against Colorado. The Rockies are averaging 6.4 runs per game against Diamondbacks pitching this season and will be looking to respond after yesterday's 10-5 loss. They may respond at the plate but the Rockies pitching continues to be a concern. At home, the Colorado bullpen has a 6.28 ERA this season. That's particularly bad news today because certainly the Colorado bullpen may be called upon early in this one. That's because southpaw Chris Rusin is getting the start for the Rockies. He pitches to contact but managed to have surprising success against the Diamondbacks in Arizona last month. Now the Dbacks get a quick second look at him though and he is coming off of a start where he got absolutely hammered at San Francisco. Overall, Rusin is 11-19 with a 5.11 ERA and a .296 BAA in his MLB career. In the past 4 years, he was hit at .308 or better in 3 of the 4 seasons. He's facing a Diamondbacks team that has a lofty .457 slugging percentage and has averaged 5 runs in their games against left-handed starters this season. The Dbacks have won 4 straight games and the over is 17-6 the last 3 seasons when Arizona enters a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The over is 9-4 in Rockies home games this season and the weather should be ideal for the ball to again carry very well tonight. There were 13 extra base hits in last  night's games and I expect more of the same tonight. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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05-10-16 | A's v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 5-13 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* UNDER 9.5 runs -105 in Boston vs Oakland @ 7:10 ET - We rode the over to an easy victory yesterday as this game went over the total before the mid-point of the game and it ended up being the highest scoring game on the board with 21 runs scored. I look for a much different result today. Even though the A's Sean Manaea has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his two starts this season, the southpaw has been victimized a bit by big hits. The left-hander has allowed only 11 hits in his 10 innings of work this season and Manaea has an edge on the mound today because Boston has struggled against southpaws this season. In their 4 games against left-handed starters this season the Red Sox have just one win and the under is a PERFECT 4-0 in those games. Boston hit just .181 in the four games and averaged only 2.2 runs per game. The A's are also likely to struggle at the plate. I know that Sean O'Sullivan has some unimpressive big league numbers but he has some good MLB experience under his belt and now returns to the majors based on pitching very well in AAA again this season. He has not started against the A's in five years so the hitters will have unfamiliarity with his offerings. I expect a bit of a pitchers duel at Fenway Park tonight after yesterday's crazy high-scoring match-up. The under is 17-8 the last 3 seasons in A's games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Red Sox games are 39-22 to the under in May games the past three seasons combined. *8* UNDER 9.5 in Boston |
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05-09-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11 runs -110 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 8:40 ET - Archie Bradley is only 23 years old and had an ERA up near 6 in his 8 starts with the Diamondbacks last season. He is making a spot start here for Arizona and this is just his 2nd start at the MLB level in 2016. If his first one is any indication, it should be a rough outing for Bradley. He got rocked at pitcher-friendly San Francisco 3 weeks ago and now he has to make his first-ever Coors Field start and the wind direction could be switching around early in this game and actually blowing out. Even if it's blowing in a bit in the early stages, the thin air of Colorado will help the carry of the ball and Bradley is going to get rocked by a Rockies lineup that routinely hits around .300 in their home games year in and year out. The Diamondbacks should also enjoy success at the plate tonight. Tyler Chatwood has struggled in his home starts this season. Also, the right-hander's last significant time as a starter (2013 season) shows this is no fluke as he got hit at a .294 clip in his home starts that season at Coors Field. Even earlier in his career he was hit a .310 clip in home games for a full season as a starter for the Angels. The Diamondbacks saw him last month so that will help them hone in on his offerings tonight. The Dbacks are off of a series sweep at Atlanta where they hit the ball well and they are 16-6 to the over the last three seasons combined when they are on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Rockies are 8-4 to the over in their home games this season. Rockies bullpen has ERA at home up near 6 so far this season. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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05-09-16 | A's v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs -115 in Boston vs Oakland @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox should pound Sonny Gray in this one. The A's right-hander has allowed 11 earned runs in the 9 innings spanning his last two starts. Simply put, Gray is just not himself right now and the BoSox have scored an average of 5.5 runs per game with a .296 batting average in their games this season where they faced a right-handed starter. The A's should also enjoy success at the plate as they "tee off" against Clay Buchholz in this one. The Red Sox right-hander finally got a win in his most recent start but he still has a 5.71 ERA on the season and he has been hammered by Oakland throughout his career. Buchholz has a 6.81 ERA in 8 career starts against the A's. 6 of those 8 games went over the total and that includes last season's lone match-up where he gave up 10 hits in a start where he got knocked out in the 5th inning. As a road dog of +100 to +125 the A's have gone 4-2 to the over this season. The over is 15-10 in Boston's games against right-handed starters so far this year. Overall, 4 of Oakland's last 5 games have gone over the total and another one should be expected Monday. *8* OVER in Boston |
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05-08-16 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 8 | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 runs -120 in Atlanta vs Arizona @ 1:35 ET - Yesterday's 4-2 Arizona win stayed under the total. However, prior to that, the Braves were a perfect 6-0 to the over in their games against teams with a losing record this season. The over is 5-2 this season in Atlanta games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is 6-2 in Braves games against left-handed starters this season. The over is 4-2 in Diamondbacks day games this season. Also, Arizona has played 4 Sunday games so far this season and not a single one of them stayed under the total. Look for the Dbacks lineup to feast on the offerings of Mike Foltynewicz this afternoon. His first start of the season was Monday against the Mets and he got completely rocked. He faced the Diamondbacks twice last season and his team lost each start as he struggled against Arizona and compiled an 8.70 ERA in those two starts. Pat Corbin gets the start for the Diamondbacks here. Though he has a good history against the Braves, Corbin comes into this start in poor current form. The southpaw has a 7.41 ERA in his last 3 starts and he's allowed 5 homers in these 3 outings. By the way, Foltynewicz allowed 3 homers in his season debut Monday. The weather will be ideal for the ball to carry well today as the air density index is very low in Atlanta today. The ball will carry well and it's a mild afternoon ball game game conducive to plenty of offense this afternoon for Braves fans. Both teams should pile up the runs in this one as the Braves bullpen also continues to be an issue. *8* OVER in Atlanta |
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05-07-16 | Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs -110 in St Louis vs Pittsburgh @ 2:15 ET - The ball is known for carrying well in day games in St Louis and the weather should be especially helpful in that regard today. Warm afternoon weather with the wind blowing out and with the air fairly dry. The ball will carry very well today and that's bad news for the pitchers in this one as they were already struggling coming into this outing. The Pirates Jeff Locke has pitched a little better in his last two starts but Pittsburgh is still only 1-4 in his starts this season as he's compiled a 4.72 ERA that certainly could be much worse considering his 1.84 WHIP. The right-hander has an atrocious 2.07 WHIP in his road outings this season and got rocked for 4 earned runs in just 5 innings of work in his most recent start at St Louis. The Cardinals will have Adam Wainwright on the mound and he's only 2-3 this season with a 6.68 ERA. Also, his two home starts have seen the veteran right-hander compile a 7.94 ERA. In his last 3 starts against the Pirates Wainwright has compiled a 5.00 ERA and he allowed three homers in his last home start versus Pittsburgh. Both of Wainwright's home starts have gone over the total and 3 of Locke's last 4 starts have gone over the total. The over is 7-1 in Pirates games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The over is also 7-3 in Pittsburgh's day games this season. This will be the 5th Saturday game for the Cardinals so far this season and they've yet to record an under on a Saturday. Look for that streak to remain intact with today's result on a great day for baseball (particularly hitting the baseball) this afternoon at Busch Stadium. *10* OVER in St Louis |
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05-07-16 | Rangers v. Tigers OVER 9 | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 runs -110 in Detroit vs Texas @ 1:10 ET - Pelfrey gets the start for the Tigers and he's 0-4 with a 7.10 ERA and a 2.09 WHIP so far this season. He has more walks than strikeouts on the season and has particularly struggled at home - 9.57 ERA. Griffin gets the start for the Rangers this afternoon. He has allowed 9 earned runs on 15 hits in less than 10 innings of work in his two career starts at Comerica Park. Though Griffin has pitched well early this season he has faced a number of struggling lineups. That changes today as the Rangers righty faces a Tigers team that, prior to yesterday's 1 run effort against a tough Cole Hamels, had scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in going 5-3 in their 8 prior games. This is the first time this season that the Rangers are a small road favorite and the past two seasons Texas has had just 8 unders in 23 games where they had a price of -100 to -125 on the road. The Tigers are 10-2 to the over in day games this season and also 8-3 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record. Detroit is also 15-7 to the over against right-handed starters and the Tigers have gone 8-4 to the over in their home games this season. Both teams have solid bullpens but based on this starting pitching match-up, the power of these two lineups and the fact that the weather forecast is calling for the wind to be blowing out by the time the bullpens are involved here has me expecting a very high-scoring game. *8* OVER in Detroit |
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05-06-16 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Cincinnati vs Milwaukee @ 7:10 ET - Tyler Cravy gets the start for the Brewers only because Wily Peralta was placed on the paternity list (birth of daughter). Cravy will be limited to just 85 pitches as he had only made one start at Triple A before this call up. This is bad news for a Milwaukee bullpen whose ERA is over 5 and that, on the road, has a WHIP up near 2.00 so, in other words base runners galore. This has played a big role in the Brewers going over the total in 8 straight games and 10 of their last 11. As for the Reds, they are starting Tim Adleman who had a good outing in his first this season but whom will be making just the 2nd MLB start of his career. The Reds have gone over the total in 4 of their last 5 games and their bullpen has had a disastrous start to the season including a 6.53 ERA and only 1 save in 6 opportunities so far. The over is 7-3 this season when the Reds are off of a win and also 11-5 in divisional games. The Brewers have had just 7 unders in their 28 games this season. Milwaukee is averaging nearly 6 runs per game in their last 11 games. The Reds are averaging nearly 6 runs per game in their last 5 games. With two inexperienced starting pitchers on the mound, two weak bullpens, and some confident sticks loaded up in each lineup, this one should fly over the total. *10* OVER in Cincinnati |
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05-06-16 | Nationals v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | 6-8 | Win | 105 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 in Chicago Cubs vs Washington @ 2:20 ET - Mild afternoon weather expected at Wrigley Field. Also, even though there won't be a lot of wind today, what wind there is will be blowing out. It will be a great day for the hitters. I knew we would get a favorable total here because of these starting pitchers have had solid season so far. That is why we're getting a low total on this game even though the weather is conducive to an over and even though both lineups are plenty capable of piling up runs. The Nationals lost 5-2 here yesterday but the Nats had won 5 of their 6 prior games and Washington averaged 6.3 runs per game during that hot streak. As for the Cubs, they have averaged 6.1 runs per game on the season! Of course this has played a big role in the over going 16-9-2 in Cubs games so far this season. Each of Lackey's last two starts against Washington resulted in overs. As for Scherzer, although he is off of a strong start, he had previously given up 8 earned runs in the 11 innings spanning his two prior starts. Look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Washington's Friday games this season. The Cubs are 13-6 to the over in their games against right-handed starters. The Cubs also have had just 2 unders in their 10 day games this season! *8* OVER in Chicago Cubs |
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05-05-16 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play UNDER 8.5 runs in Cleveland vs Detroit @ 6:10 ET - With the Indians 4-0 win yesterday, Cleveland games have now stayed under the total in 4 of their last 5. The Indians are only hitting .247 on the season. The Tigers have averaged just 1.6 runs per game in their five games against the Indians this season. They are likely to struggle again this evening. Not only is it going to be a raw, chilly night with a north wind blowing in as well, the fact is that the Indians Trevor Bauer is going to be much stronger tonight now that he's not on a strict pitch count. In his first start this season, last week, he was limited but tonight he'll be turned loose and Bauer is healthy again and he's tough when he's commanding his pitches like he is right now. The Tigers will have Michael Fullmer on the mound and, like Bauer, he'll be making his 2nd start of the season and, like Bauer, I expect him to go even deeper into this game after a solid MLB debut. Fullmer did a good job of keeping the ball down in his MLB debut and 6 of the 7 hits he allowed were singles. He got a lot of ground ball outs and some nice strike outs as well. The Tigers bullpen has been stellar this season while the Indians bullpen has been solid as well. Factoring in the weather as well that makes this the perfect spot for a solid under. You might expect a "crazy" game after yesterday's shutout win for the Indians but the Tigers are actually 2-0 to the under when off of a shutout loss. Also, the under is 16-9 in Indians games the past three seasons when they are off of a shutout win. In 14 night games this season for the Tribe, only 5 overs have resulted. This evening's game should stay well under the total as well. *10* UNDER in Cleveland |
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05-04-16 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* UNDER 7.5 runs in San Diego vs Colorado @ 3:40 ET - These teams went over the total yesterday despite only 14 hits in the game. It was truly a crazy game by Petco Park standards because there were 3 homers hit and 7 of the 9 runs scored in the game were scored with 2 outs in the inning. Very unusual results and it burned me and my clients as we had the under here. I won't hesitate to come right back with the under after a crazy result yesterday that had "over players" cashing a "lucky" play to say the least. Before yesterday's ridiculous result the Padres had recorded 4 straight unders and, based on today's pitching match-up, the pattern of unders should continue. The Rockies have Tyler Chatwood on the mound and he's 3-0 with a sparkling 0.46 ERA and 0.92 WHIP this season in his road starts. He'll be opposed by the Padres Cesar Vargas who has made two starts and has a stellar 0.87 ERA so far. The Padres hitters haven't seen Chatwood since 2013 and he dominated them in both starts that season and the Rockies hitters have never seen Vargas. This shapes up to be a pitchers duel at pitcher friendly Petco Park Wednesday afternoon. Look for the under to improve to 9-5 in Padres games against teams with a losing record this season. *8* UNDER in San Diego |
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05-04-16 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 7 | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7 runs in Pittsburgh vs Chicago Cubs @ 12:35 ET - Of course Jon Lester of the Cubs is off to a great start this season and is a solid left-handed starter. However, therein lies one of the keys to this play. The Pirates have the #1 ranking in the league for OPS against southpaws this season. OPS is on-base percentage plus slugging percentage and Pittsburgh had dominated against lefties this season. That said, don't be surprised if they do some damage against Lester this afternoon. At the same time, even though Juan Nicasio has pitched quite well for the Pirates early this season, the Pittsburgh right-hander is facing a Cubs team that is averaging 7 runs per game on the road this season. Overall, over their last 10 games, the Cubs have gone 8-2 while averaging 7.2 runs per game! The Cubs have had just 1 under in their last 11 games. The Pirates have stayed under the total just 5 times in their last 21 games! Both teams have solid lineups and with this total now dropping to a 7 in some books, there is even more value with this selection. *8* OVER in Pittsburgh |
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05-03-16 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -111 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play UNDER 7.5 runs -110 in San Diego vs Colorado @ 10:10 ET - When people think of the Rockies offense often comes to mind. However, they are a different team away from hitter-friendly Coors Field. Yesterday's 2-1 loss easily stayed under the total and that means that Colorado has had just 3 overs in their last 11 road games! Though there were 15 hits in yesterday's game, 13 of them were singles. The Padres are known for their struggles at the plate and Petco Field is absolutely a pitchers park. That is a big part of the reason that Andrew Cashner has great career numbers in his home starts with San Diego. Already this season Cashner has been strong at home. He's coming off of a rare rough road outing but, in his prior two starts (both at home) he allowed just 1 earned run in 6 innings in each start. In his last home start versus the Rockies, the Padres right-hander gave up just 1 earned run in 7 and 1/3 innings of work. Cashner will be opposed by Eddie Butler of the Rockies tonight. One must be careful in looking at his stats both in the majors and minors. That's because his home games at the MLB level are at hitter friendly Coors and in the minor leagues his recent action has been at AAA Albuquerque and they play their home games in one of the most hitter friendly venues in all of minor league baseball. Butler struck out 4 in 2 and 1/3 innings in his first appearance (out of the bullpen) for the Rockies this season. He's capable of holding the Padres in check here as they went into yesterday's game hitting just .219 in home games this season! The Rockies bullpen also, as you would expect, is much better on the road compared to at home. The under is 4-0 in the Padres last 4 games. Look for another pitchers duel tonight. *10* UNDER 7.5 in San Diego |
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05-02-16 | Nationals v. Royals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play UNDER 7.5 runs -115 in Kansas City vs Washington @ 8:15 ET - The Nationals have had just 8 overs in their 24 games this season while the Royals have had just 5 overs in their 24 games this season. Based on the pitching match-up for Monday, this looks like another great spot for the under. Gio Gonzalez has a 1.42 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP so far this season. Edinson Volquez is coming off of a rough start so I fully expect him to respond as he's back home for this start and the Royals right-hander has a 0.96 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his three home starts this season. His most recent was on the road and was truly an aberration as he had pitched well in all four of his starts so far this season (including a road outing) before that ugly outing last week. Washington hasn't faced Volquez since 2014 and he held them to 2 earned runs in over 12 innings of work in his two starts against them that season. Gonzalez struggled against the Royals when he last faced them but that was in 2013 and that was the only start he has had against them since the 2011 season. A lack of familiarity is almost always an edge for the pitcher and the Nationals left-hander is throwing extremely well so far this season. The Royals are averaging just 2.7 runs per game in their last 11 games. The Nationals are hitting just .234 on the season. Both clubs bullpens have been fantastic this season. The under has cashed in 9 of 11 Royals home games this season. In 12 road games this season the Nationals have had just 3 overs! *10* UNDER in Kansas City |
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05-02-16 | Angels v. Brewers OVER 9 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 runs -105 in Milwaukee vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:20 ET - Jered Weaver gets this start for the Angels and, while he "only" allowed 9 hits in 6 innings in his most recent start, most of the hits were extra base hits! In fact the veteran right-hander was somewhat fortunate that he only allowed 4 earned runs in that start. Keep in mind that start came against a Royals team that is not hitting the ball well at all early this season. Monday Weaver will be facing a Brewers club that got their sticks going in yesterday's 14-5 blowout win. That was the 6th time in the last 11 games that Milwaukee had scored at least 5 runs in a game. The Brewers are averaging 5 runs per game at home this season and they should get to Weaver early and often in this one. Milwaukee sends Jimmy Nelson to the mound Monday. The Brewers right-hander has allowed 16 hits and 9 walks in his last 18 innings of work and that includes getting hit hard in an inter-league start against the Twins two starts back and Nelson was at home for that start just like he is for tonight's interleague start. Look for him to get roughed up again here as the Angels are off of a 9-6 win at Texas yesterday and have now won 5 of their last 8 games thanks in part to an offense that is averaging 5 runs per game during this stretch. Each teams bullpen has had some struggles too with both pens blowing 3 of their 9 save opportunities so far this season. The over is 5-1 in Brewers interleague games this season and 28-17 in games against the AL the past 3 seasons combined. The over is 13-5 in Brewers games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the past three seasons combined. Look for the Milwaukee over to improve to 12-4 this season in games against right-handed starters. *8* OVER in Milwaukee |
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05-01-16 | Astros v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs -105 in Oakland vs Houston @ 4:05 ET - The A's Rich Hill has an interesting dichotomy that has developed so far this season. He's been great on the road but struggled at home. As we enter the 2nd month of the season this will be Hill's 3rd home start of the young season. Though he's been lights out on the road this season, the Oakland southpaw has gone 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA at home and that ERA could easily have been even worse as Hill has a 2.29 WHIP in home games. Putting baserunners on against a powerful Astros lineup can prove to be dangerous. Yes, Houston has struggled at the plate this season as shown by their batting average but they are still putting together a solid slugging percentage due to good power in the lineup. After getting shutout yesterday I look for the Houston bats to respond today and they certainly will need to because their starting pitcher, Doug Fister, is struggling miserably. Fister is 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He has given up 5 homers in his 4 starts this season and he walked 7 in his most recent outing. Fister has given up 15 earned runs on 29 hits in just 15 and 1/3 innings in his last 3 starts against the A's. Oakland's bats should do plenty of damage here in a day game with the wind blowing out. The over is 10-4 in Houston road games this season and the over is 3-1 in Astros games against left-handed starters this season. The Houston bullpen has a 6.80 ERA on the road this season. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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04-29-16 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 8 | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 -105 in Boston vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - Henry Owens first start of the season was at Houston Sunday and it was a disaster. Facing the Yankees tonight is unlikely to help matters for the young southpaw. He is 0-2 with a 13.49 ERA in his two career starts against the Yanks and both were recent as they were in August and September of last season. This means the Yankees should have no trouble with the offerings of Owens tonight. The Red Sox will be facing the Yanks Masahiro Tanaka. Though he's off to a strong start this season he has been facing opponents that have been struggling at the plate early this season. Now he takes on a Red Sox team that, in their games against right-handed starters, has averaged 5.5 runs per game and hit .291 so far this season. Also, Boston has seen plenty of Tanaka in his career and they've enjoyed success against him as evidenced by his 5.13 ERA. The over is 6-3 in Boston's last 9 games. The over is 6-1 in Owens' starts against the Yanks in his career and the over is 6-1 in Tanaka's starts against the Red Sox in his career. *8* OVER in Boston |
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04-28-16 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Arizona vs St Louis @ 9:40 ET - The Cardinals lineup is on fire. St Louis has won 4 of their last 5 games and is averaging 9 runs per game in those contests. The Cardinals certainly should stay hot at the plate against Rubby De La Rosa. The Diamondbacks right-hander is off of a strong outing but that doesn't completely erase how tough his early season outings have gone overall. Also, De La Rosa is known for struggling badly against left-handed batters and the Cardinals have some very tough left-handed sticks that will be in the lineup tonight. The Cards aren't the only hot lineup involved tonight. The Diamondbacks have won 7 of their 11 games and have averaged 6.4 runs per game during this hot streak. The over is 9-3 in Arizona's last 12 games and the over has cashed in 5 straight St Louis games. Even though the Cardinals Michael Wacha is certainly a pitcher I respect, he has not been overly impressive this season. He has been hit at a .301 clip so far this season. Also, in his most recent start (at pitcher-friendly Petco Park!) he walked 4 Padres while not recording a single strikeout. That doesn't bode well for what to expect from Wacha tonight at hitter-friendly Chase Field. The Cardinals are 9-3 to the over this season on the road and the over is 9-2 in St Louis games this season when they are off of a win. The over is 9-4 in Diamondbacks home games this season. In the finale of this 4-game set tonight look for another game filled with fireworks from each of the lineups as they make the over a perfect 4-0 in this series. The Dbacks relievers have a 5.26 ERA in home games this season. More struggles against tonight as De La Rosa is likely to have an early exit at the hands of the powerful Cards. *10* OVER in Arizona |
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04-28-16 | White Sox v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs in Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - Statistically, in all sports, strange anomalies happen. When these occur, it literally "pays" to pay attention for the right opportunity to sweep in and take advantage of the corresponding line value when the time is right. In this case, the timing is perfect for this particular situation. The Orioles have played 8 home games and still have not recorded an over at Camden Yards this season. The under has come in 7 times and 1 total pushed. This is despite the fact that the O's are hitting .285 at home this season. As noted above, some times strange things happen statistically. Tonight we take advantage. This total opened up at a 9 and moved down to an 8.5 rather quickly. No surprise there based on the 7-0 under trend. The key to the over tonight is that the Orioles should pound John Danks. The White Sox southpaw is 0-3 with a 6.23 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP so far this season. The lefty allowed 3 homers in his last start at Camden Yards. Danks at least should receive plenty of run support though. The ChiSox have won 6 straight games and averaged nearly 6 runs per game during this hot streak. They'll be facing Tyler Wilson who is truly just a "spot starter" for Baltimore. The righty was decent, though not spectacular, against the Royals in his first start Saturday and the way Kansas City is struggling it made the win even less impressive. Now Wilson faces a White Sox team that is on fire and that did see him in one of his spot starts last season so they'll be ready here. The ChiSox are on a 20-13 run to the over when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Orioles are 3-1 to the over in their games against left-handed starters so far this season. *8* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore |
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04-27-16 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs +100 in Seattle vs Houston @ 10:10 ET - The Mariners exploded for 11 runs yesterday in what was their 6th win in their last 7 games. The M's are averaging 6 runs per game during this hot streak and Colin McHugh of the Astros is unlikely to slow Seattle down. The Astros right-hander has allowed 28 hits in his last 3 starts and those have spanned just 16 and 1/3 innings. He has been way too hittable and already has an ugly 7.56 ERA on the season. In his last two starts against the Mariners, McHugh has given up 6 homers so that's bad news for tonight as Seattle is certainly "feeling it" with how hot their bats have been of late. As for the Astros sticks, they have certainly struggled so far this season but they were heating up before they were shut down by Nate Karns yesterday. The Astros had averaged 5 runs per game and 11 hits per game in their 3 prior contests. After getting shutdown last night, look for the Astros to bounce back tonight. They are still among league leaders in homers early this season. They'll be facing the Mariners Hisashi Iwakuma. The Seattle right-hander has allowed four earned runs in each of his last three starts against the Astros. Iwakuma allowed 2 homers the last time he faced Houston. He also comes into this start having allowed 3 homers in his past two starts overall. The over is 6-2 in McHugh's starts against the Mariners in his career. The over is 8-3 in Astros road games this season. *10* OVER in Seattle |
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04-26-16 | Pirates v. Rockies OVER 10 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10 runs -105 in Colorado vs Pittsburgh @ 8:40 ET - There is no denying that Gerrit Cole is a fantastic young hurler. But Coors Field has humbled many great pitchers through the years and Cole will be making his first ever appearance here. Cole lucked out as the weather is more favorable than usual for pitchers at Coors Field tonight. The wind will be blowing out of the north and it will be a chilly night. However, that doesn't change the fact that the air is still very thin air and the density of the air (in this case, thin air) absolutely impacts the movement of pitches as well as how well the ball carries here. Cole will be having to adjust on the fly here in his first ever appearance in this ball park. The fact this total has come down from an 11 to a 10 is providing even more line value with the over in this match-up tonight. Cole was 10-1 in day starts last year but 9-7 in night starts with an ERA a full run higher under the lights. As for the Rockies, Jorge De La Rosa gets the start tonight but has a few strikes against him in this spot. The southpaw had his start pushed back a day because he's 'under the weather'. Also, the lefty is struggling badly so far this season with a 9.86 ERA and a 1.96 WHIP so far this year. He's facing a Pirates team that has seen a surge in confidence surging through the lineup as they have their sticks going with 7.6 runs per game in their last 5 games. On the season the Pirates are hitting .292 overall and they've averaged 7.3 runs per game in their games against left-handed starters. The Rockies are hitting a solid .287 at home this season and this game has all the makings of offensive fireworks after last night's rare result as the Rockies scored just 1 run last night. Look for the over to improve to 12-3 in the Pirates last 15 games! *10* OVER in Colorado |
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04-25-16 | Red Sox v. Braves OVER 8 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 runs +110 in Atlanta vs Boston @ 7:10 ET - The Braves Julio Teheran did battle a fever in his last start but there is another problem that certainly isn't related to a fever because it's been evident in each of his starts this season. Teheran is not getting good velocity on his fastball. This is key because it's really impacting to two of his pitches. His fastball is not where it needs to be and, as a result his change-up is not nearly effective as it should be because there hasn't been enough of a difference between the two pitches. This has played a role in the Braves right-hander compiling a 6.61 ERA in his last three starts. Now Teheran has to face a Red Sox team whose lineup is heating up. With their 7-5 win at Houston last night, Boston is averaging 6.2 runs per game in their last five games. The BoSox will have Rick Porcello toeing the rubber tonight. I am well aware of the fact that he's off to a good start this season but, even though the Braves have not been scoring a lot of runs during their current losing streak, Atlanta has been swinging the bats quite well and has been close to a breakthrough with some big innings like they had during their recent 4-game winning streak when they averaged 6.5 runs per game. In their last 4 games the Braves have reached double digits in hits. In fact, Atlanta has 10 hits or more in 6 of their last 8 games. Porcello has a 4.66 ERA so far this season and he has a 4.98 ERA in his career against Atlanta. The Red Sox righty has allowed 5 homers in his 3 starts this season and that could help the Braves (league-worst in homers) to finally get untracked in that department. The over is 8-3 in Atlanta's night games this season and 5-1 in their games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs so far on the year. Boston is 10-6 to the over against right-handed starters this season and the Red Sox are 6-2 to the over in road games so far this year. *8* OVER in Atlanta |
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04-24-16 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11 runs -110 in Colorado vs LA Dodgers @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday was a rare pitchers duel at Coors Field and there will be nothing like that today. We also get to take advantage of the line move here with this total moving down from an 11.5 to an 11 as of early Sunday morning. Both of these starting pitchers are likely to struggle today. Alex Wood gets the start for the Dodgers and he's 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA and a 2.22 WHIP in his two road starts this season. Now he'll be pitching in the toughest venue for pitchers in baseball today. Wood pitcher he in July and September of last year and he allowed 7 earned runs in the first start and 8 earned runs in the second start at Coors Field. Ouch...and I look for more of the same today. His counterpart today is Jordan Lyles. The Rockies right-hander is off of a great start at Cincinnati but his first two starts this season were at home in hitter-friendly Coors. Lyles went winless in those two starts and compiled an 11.25 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP in those two outings. Lyles also is 0-3 with a 6.85 ERA in his career against the Dodgers and that's even with the last three outings all coming at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Today Lyles faces them in the thin air of Denver and I expect he will get crushed and so will Wood in what should be a wild game with plenty of fireworks on offense from both lineups. The Dodgers are 4-2 to the over in road games with a posted total of 11 or 11.5 runs the past three seasons combined. The Rockies are 7-4 to the over in divisional games this season. The over is 93-71 in Rockies home games the past three seasons combined. *10* OVER 11 in Colorado |
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04-24-16 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs -105 in LA Angels vs Seattle @ 3:35 ET - Yesterday's game between these teams stayed just under the total but that was expected to be a pitchers duel from the outset based on Hernandez squaring off with Santiago. Today's game should be anything BUT a pitchers duel with Miley and Shoemaker matched up! The Angels have been struggling at the plate and that has helped lead the way to 7 straight unders. However, the Mariners Miley should surely bring out the best in them. The Seattle southpaw has an 8.04 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP in his first three starts this season. The only good news for Mariners fans is that he should get plenty of run support here. Before scoring just 2 runs yesterday, the M's had scored 15 runs on 24 hits in their past two games and they should get back on track against Shoemaker. The Angels right-hander went 1-6 in his home starts last season and got crushed in his only home start so far this season. He has given up 5 homers in his last 3 starts against Seattle. The Mariners are averaging 5 runs per game on the road this season. A lot of unders for both these clubs so far this season but the odds makers knew what they were doing when they set this total at 8.5 as I expect each team to get to at least 4 runs today which, of course, guarantees us no worse than a 5-4 final which would be a winner. *8* OVER 8.5 in LA Angels |
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04-23-16 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs -110 in Houston vs Boston @ 4:05 ET - It is usually best not to put too much weight into one start when you're evaluating starting pitchers. That said, just because Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox is off of a strong start does not erase the fact that he gave up 5 earned runs in EACH of his first two starts this season. As for the Astros, they send a struggling Michael Fiers to the mound. While Buchholz allowed a total of 3 homers in his first two starts this season, Fiers has allowed a ridiculous 6 homers in his first three starts this season. This game should turn into an absolutely slugfest. Boston has 21 runs on 42 hits in their last 3 games. Houston has an ugly 5-12 record on the season and has struggled overall at the plate. But they have hit 24 homers and that is good enough for 3rd in the majors. Last season their 230 homers was 2nd in the majors as only the Blue Jays hit more homers. I look for the Astros bats to get back on track today with some big extra base hits off of Buchholz while the Red Sox stay hot at the plate thanks to the struggles of Fiers. The over is 4-2 in Red Sox road games this season and the over is 3-1 in Astros day games so far this season. *8* OVER 8.5 runs in Houston |
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04-22-16 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11 runs -105 in Colorado vs LA Dodgers @ 8:40 ET Friday - In the last 38 meetings between these teams only 14 have resulted in an under. The Rockies will have Jonathan Gray on the mound tonight. The right-hander is making his first start this season. His biggest issues at the MLB level have been with consistency and command. This spring he had trouble again as walks were an issue. Last season he struggled badly in outings at hitter-friendly Coors Field as he went winless in five starts. In those five outings, Gray got hit at a .391 clip and compiled an 8.27 ERA. Now he faces a Dodgers that has won 6 of their past 8 games and is averaging 5 runs per game on the road this season. The Rockies have won 3 of their last 4 home games and averaged 9 runs per game in those 3 victories. They are happy to be back home after a week-long road trip. Colorado is hitting .303 in their home games this season. This is nothing new as last season the Rockies hit .302 in their home games. In the thin air of Colorado look for Kazmir the Dodgers Scott Kazmir to struggle to get the movement on his pitches that he needs to be successful. He is a soft thrower and he could end up getting walloped on a mild night with the wind expected to be blowing out at Coors Field. After a good first start this season (against a Padres team that couldn't hit anything earlier this season), Kazmir has struggled with 10 earned runs allowed in the 8 innings spanning his past two starts. The Rockies are 6-3 to the over in divisional games this season. The Dodgers went 3-1 to the over the past two seasons when they are on the road and the posted total was 11 or 11.5 runs. Big number on this total tonight but it's absolutely justifiable. *10* OVER in Colorado Friday |
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04-22-16 | A's v. Blue Jays UNDER 8 | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* UNDER 8 runs +105 in Toronto vs Oakland @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams have been "under machines" so far this season. Even with yesterday's over, the Athletics have had just 4 overs in their 16 games this season. The Blue Jays saw their game stay under the total again yesterday and they have had just 4 overs in their 17 games this season. On the road this season Oakland is 5-1 to the under. After a win this season the A's are 7-1 to the under. Against right-handed starters, the Athletics are 10-2 to the under. This is Oakland's first game on artificial turf this season but the under went 9-2 the past two seasons in A's games on artificial turf. When the posted total on their games has been 8 or 8.5 this season, Toronto has gone 9-2 to the under. In their games against teams with a winning record this season, the Blue jays have also gone 9-2 to the under. They are hitting just .227 on the season and Oakland his hitting just .230 on the season. The A's bullpen has an 0.83 ERA on the road this season. The Jays bullpen has a 3.24 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in home games this season. The A's Sonny Gray gets the start and he's been very sharp early this season and has allowed a total of just 5 earned runs in his three starts. The Rays hand the ball to Aaron Sanchez and he has allowed just 1 earned run in each of his three starts this season! Also, this will be his first time facing an Oakland and that certainly is a disadvantage for the A's hitters. Gray has a 2.25 ERA in his career outings against the Blue Jays. 10 of the last 12 meetings between these teams have stayed under the total. I look for another one here. *8* UNDER in Toronto |
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04-21-16 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 9 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 runs in Baltimore vs Toronto @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams have been "under" teams early this season but the Orioles are hitting .283 on the season while the Blue Jays have averaged nearly 10 hits per game in their last 4 games. With a struggling Chris Tillman on the mound I look for the Jays to do damage early and often at the plate in this one. The Orioles right-hander gave up 6 earned runs on 9 hits in 5 and 1/3 innings of work in his most recent start. Also, he's 4-10 with a 5.48 ERA in his career starts against Toronto. Tillman struggled badly against the Blue Jays last season with a few horrific outings against the Jays. Toronto may seem some struggles from their own starting pitcher in this one as well. Marco Estrada gets the starting nod for the Blue Jays and he's off of his first road start of the season. The Jays right-hander got rocked in that start for 4 earned runs in 6 innings. Certainly he put up some impressive numbers last season and is a starting pitcher that merits respect. However, he did have a "short" spring this season and this could continue to be an issue for him early this season as the start at Boston could be duplicated here in terms of Estrada facing another tough AL East lineup on the road. In road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the past three seasons combined the Blue Jays have had just 17 unders in 43 games. As for the Orioles, even with their trending toward unders early this season they still have had just 23 unders in 57 April games the past three seasons combined. Finally, in the series finale of this three game set, look for the offenses to make plenty of noise. *8* OVER in Baltimore |
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04-21-16 | A's v. Yankees OVER 8 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 runs -100 in New York Yankees vs Oakland @ 7:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Yankees have struggled against left-handed pitching early this season but A's southpaw Rich Hill may be just what the doctor ordered! The Oakland lefty has given up 17 hits in his 13 innings of work this season. Two of his three outings have been very short starts because he has struggled so badly. Also, Hill has made two career starts in the Bronx and he's gone 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA. The Yankees are certainly likely to have pitching issues of their own in this game. Luis Severino gets the start and, unlike last season, he's been very hittable so far this year. He's allowed 7 earned runs on 18 hits in less than 11 innings of work so far this season. Oakland has been an "under" team so far this season but with four straight wins the hitters are certainly stepping into the plate with confidence today against Severino. Couple that with the fact that Hill is likely to struggle once again in the Bronx and you have the makings of a slugfest here. This one doesn't "look pretty on paper" because the trends don't "add up" but this one should go over rather easily based on the pitching match-up and the situation as the Yankees battle hard at the plate to avoid a home sweep. *8* OVER in New York Yankees |
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04-20-16 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Baltimore vs Toronto @ 7:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Toronto has been an "under machine" so far this season and this has been particularly true on the road. However, R.A. Dickey has struggled badly so far this season and the Blue Jays knuckle-baller went 2-8 with a 4.83 ERA in his road starts last year. This season the 41 year old Dickey is off to a rough start and has a 6.75 ERA and has been hit at a .313 clip so far this season. Facing an Orioles team that is hitting .285 so far this season and has plenty of power is not going to help the knuckler. His counterpart tonight is Ubaldo Jimenez. Even though Jimenez hasn't looked "that bad" this season he has been quite hittable. He's given up 14 hits in his last 12 innings of work and he really labored in his most recent start (at Boston) with command of his pitches also being a real issue against the Red Sox. Jimenez is getting hit at a .298 clip so far this season and has walked 11 and allowed 16 hits in his last 17 and 2/3 innings of work against the Blue Jays. That equates to a 1.53 WHIP and allowing too many baserunners against a powerful Toronto lineup can quickly lead to some "crooked numbers" being put on the scoreboard frame by frame. The fact is that the Jays lineup is getting back into their groove with each win and they have shaken off a slow start to win 6 of their last 9. In road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the Blue Jays have recorded just 17 unders in the last 43 such games. Look for the over to improve to 6-2 in the Orioles last 8 games with a slugfest breaking out on Wednesday. *10* OVER in Baltimore |
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04-19-16 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Texas vs Houston @ 8:05 ET - The Astros bullpen has a 6.65 ERA on the road. The Rangers bullpen has an 11.21 ERA at home. With that said, even though yesterday's game got rained out and the Astros have had a day off to rest up and the Rangers have had two days to rest their bullpen, it may not matter! These guys just flat out struggle to record outs and it will be the same story for the starters today as well. The Astros will send Scott Feldman to the mound and he's struggled in his only road start this season. He also got rocked in both starts versus the Rangers last season. Feldman gave up 18 hits in less than 9 innings of work against Texas last season. As for the Rangers starter tonight it will be Derek Holland getting the call. The southpaw has enjoyed some success early this season but it came against teams struggling to score runs. He now faces an Astros team that has a .445 slugging percentage in road games this season. Hollland faced Houston twice in September last season and got hammered in both starts. This one sets up perfectly for both teams to hit the ball well as the Astros got to him for 9 earned runs on 17 hits in less than 11 innings of work last September. The over is 5-1 in Astros road games this season and the over is also 5-1 in Rangers home games this season. The over is 4-0 in Texas home games with posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. Also, the over is 7-2 in Rangers night games so far on the young season. *10* OVER 9 in Texas |
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04-17-16 | Giants v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs +100 in LA Dodgers vs San Francisco @ 8:05 ET - This total has rise from a 7 to a 7.5 as of early Sunday morning and the move is absolutely correct (in my opinion) in this case. Kenta Maeda gets the start for the Dodgers and is welcomed into the SF/LA rivalry. I don't expect it to go well for him. Even though he's been successful in his first two starts this season, the Dodgers righty (signed to MLB contract after years of baseball in Japan) was fortunate in who he faced in his first two starts. Maeda faced the light-hitting Padres and a Diamondbacks team that is hitting .217 on the road this season. Facing the Giants will prove to be a much tougher test as San Francisco is averaging 5.7 runs per game on the season. Maeda will be opposed by Jeff Samardzija of the Giants tonight. I know the veteran righty is off of a surprisingly strong start against the Rockies but one should never put too much weight into just one outing. In his first start this season he truly had to "sneak by" the Brewers as they did get to him for 8 hits and 3 walks in only 5 and 1/3 innings of work. Samardzija has a 6.35 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in his two career starts against the Dodgers and I look for more struggles here. The Dodgers are 25-16 to the over as a home favorite of -125 to -150 the past three seasons. The Giants are 27-12 to the over as a road dog of +125 to +150 the past three seasons. *10* OVER 7.5 runs in LA Dodgers |
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04-16-16 | Tigers v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs +105 in Houston vs Detroit @ 7:10 ET - As a general rule, I always at least take a peak at an over the day after a 1-0 pitchers' duel like these teams had yesterday. The fact is the Astros had a lot of scoring opportunities yesterday but simply couldn't cash them in as they hit into three double plays. The fact they induced a lot of walks was certainly a good sign for the Houston lineup but the real key today will be swinging the lumber against a struggling Justin Verlander. The Tigers right-hander threw 116 pitches and didn't even get out of the 5th inning in a bad start against the Pirates. Verlander is having some trouble with his breaking stuff and this is bad news because the former power pitcher has lost a little something off his fastballs of late. Look for the Astros to enjoy plenty of success but they have a pitching concern of their own. I know Chris McHugh bounced back in his 2nd start (after a horrible 1st start against the Yankees) but McHugh did give up 8 hits in 7 innings against the Royals and his stuff was far from electric. The Astros bullpen has a 5.40 ERA on the season while the Tigers pen has a 5.29 ERA in road games so far this year. The Tigers had averaged 6 runs per game on the season before getting shutout in yesterday's game. The over had gone 7-1 in Detroit's first 8 games. They are on a long-term run of 94-65 to the over in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. *10* OVER 8.5 in Houston |
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04-15-16 | Angels v. Twins UNDER 8 | 4-5 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* UNDER 8 in Minnesota vs LA Angels @ 8:10 ET - Mild night in Minnesota for mid-April but that doesn't mean these bats are going to come alive. Part of the reason that the Twins are winless on the season is simply because they can't score runs. Minnesota has stayed under the total in ALL NINE of their games this season. They are 0-9 on the season and their totals have ALL been unders as well. Look for the Twins (averaging 1.6 runs per game on the season) to struggle with the offerings of Garrett Richards tonight. His first two starts may not be overly impressive statistically but, keep in mind, those outings were against Texas and the red-hot Cubs. He has a 2.63 ERA in his career against the Twins and he should have no trouble shutting down a struggling Minnesota lineup tonight. The reason this should be a pitchers duel is that the Angels are averaging just 2.9 runs per game this season and hitting just .236 and averaging only 2.8 runs per game against left-handers. Look for the Angels to struggle against Tom Milone as the southpaw shakes off some struggles with the long ball in his first start this season which did come against the world champion Royals. Milone went 6-2 in his home starts for the Twins last year and he went 3-0 at home as a member of the A's the prior year. He'll frustrate an Angels team that only hit .232 against lefties last season. As for the bullpens, Angels have a 2.16 ERA on the road so far this season and the Twins have a 1.2 ERA in home games so far this season. *8* UNDER 8 in Minnesota |
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04-15-16 | Orioles v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 9 runs in Texas vs Baltimore @ 8:05 ET - With yesterday's over the Orioles have now gone over the total in 3 of their last 4 games while the Rangers have gone over the total in 3 straight home games. Both of these teams are swinging the bats well with the Orioles hitting .287 on the season and also averaging 5.7 runs per game on the road. The Rangers got off to a slower start at the plate this season but they've now averaged 6 runs per game in their last 4 games so, as the weather has been warming, so too have the Texas bats been warming. The Orioles bullpen has been solid this season but the Rangers bullpen has struggled including an ugly 10.80 ERA in their home games this season. Even though the Orioles pen has been solid their starting pitcher is likely to be in trouble early and often tonight. Vance Worley had a "shaky" outing in his first start this season and that was against light-hitting Tampa Bay. He faces a much more potent line-up tonight and the match-up is in a hitter-friendly park. The Rangers will have Martin Perez getting the start and the southpaw gave up 7 hits plus walked 5 while striking out 0 in his 6 inning start against the Angels last week. He was lucky with all the baserunners that he did not allow more damage than the 3 earned runs. He also walked 4 in his first start this season so he's been on the edge of some big innings early this season but he's survived. I believe a confident Baltimore lineup will make him pay and that's why this game should turn into a back-and-forth slugfest. *10* OVER 9 in Texas |
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04-15-16 | Rockies v. Cubs OVER 8 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 runs in Chicago Cubs vs Colorado @ 2:20 ET - The wind is blowing in today at Wrigley Field but I knew that would help to give us some line value here and am happy to play over the low posted total in this game. The Cubs and Rockies are EACH a solid 6-3 to the over so far this season. With the Rockies it's not just about Coors Field either. Their three road games this season have averaged 13 runs per game. Their hitting the ball well, their bullpen is getting hammered, and their starting pitcher today is likely to get rocked. The Rockies will have Chad Bettis on the mound and he's off of a great start versus San Diego but the punchless Padres have been a disaster at the plate in 8 of their 10 games this season! In those 8 games San Diego has scored a TOTAL of just 8 runs. That's an average of ONE RUN per game in 80% of the schedule for the Padres so far this season. The point is that I look for Bettis to have a lot more trouble facing a Cubs team that has been insanely hot all season. Chicago is 8-1 this season and averaging 7 runs per game! The Cubs only concern today could be their own starting pitcher and that's why my play is the over. The Cubs will have Kyle Hendricks on the mound and he struggled in both of his starts against the Rockies last season. That included a start at Wrigley so it is not like his stats were "flawed" by both starts being at hitter-friendly Coors Field. The Rockies are swinging the bats well and so are the Cubs and this should be a solid over in day game action Friday. *8* OVER 7.5 in Cubs |
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04-14-16 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 8.5 runs in Toronto vs NY Yankees @ 7:05 ET - You may recall that last season Nathan Eovaldi had to be shutdown early in September due to elbow inflammation. The Yankees right-hander is saying it's not an issue this spring but he surely did not look good in his first start of the season. Eovaldi faced Houston and he gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings of work. He allowed 2 homers in the start and now faces another powerful lineup in the form of the Blue Jays on Thursday evening. Look for Toronto's lineup to build off of yesterday's solid performance as they scored 7 runs in the win. The Jays may have some trouble keeping the Yankees off the board in this one though. After a good first start against light-hitting Tampa Bay, the Jays Marcus Stroman struggled against a more powerful line-up - Red Sox - last week. Now he takes on a Yankees lineup that has struggled when facing left-handed starters this season but in the games where they've faced a right-handed starter the Yankees are hitting .303 so far this season and they have averaged 7 runs per game in those outings. Stroman has had success in his career against the Yankees but the Yanks should bounce back after scoring only 2 runs yesterday. I definitely like what the Yankees are doing against right-handed pitching this season and Stroman gave up 5 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings versus Boston last week. Look for the over to improve to 6-2 in Yankees games this season. *10* OVER in Toronto |
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04-14-16 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 11.5 runs in Colorado vs San Francisco @ 3:10 ET - Yesterday's 10-6 Rockies win marked the 5th time in 8 Colorado games this season that the total has reached at least 15 runs! That said, even though 11.5 seems like a big number to go "over" on, the fact is that that the way Rockies games have been going early this season the number should truly be even bigger. Jorge De La Rosa is expected to get the start for the Rockies. This is the 4th straight year that the southpaw has gotten off to a slow start. Each of his first two starts this season have been ugly and now he faces the Giants on a mild afternoon at hitter-friendly Coors Field with the wind blowing out. It is certainly not a good situation for him to be able to turn things around. San Francisco has scored 22 runs in their last 3 games. The issue for the Giants will be their own pitching today. I am well aware of the fact that Cain had a good first start this season but pitching at Coors Field is an entirely different "animal" altogether. The last time he started here it was a shortened three-inning outing but in his last "regular" outing at Colorado, Cain gave up 7 earned runs in 6 innings of work. He was victimized by two homers in that game and the ball will again be carrying very well at Coors Field in this afternoon outing Thursday. The Giants are 26-16 to the over when they are on the road in a price range of -100 to -125. The Rockies are 33-21 to the over in April games the past three seasons combined. *8* OVER in Colorado |
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04-13-16 | Angels v. A's OVER 8.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *7* OVER 8.5 in Oakland vs LA Angels @ 3:35 ET - Oakland Coliseum is certainly not known as a hitters park. However, a day game in Oakland with the wind blowing out can certainly be a favorable situation for the hitters. This has precipitated a rise on this total as it went from an 8 to an 8.5 right away when the lines first came out. Part of that has to do with the weather and also a lot of it has to do with two struggling starting pitchers taking the mound today. Matt Shoemaker was awful in his first start this season and this followed a rough spring. Also, although he had a 6-4 road record last season, Shoemaker compiled a 5.04 ERA away from home. The prior year the Angels righty went 7-1 on the road but yet compiled a 4.45 ERA away from home. In 6 career starts against Oakland there has not been a single under and Shoemaker has an unimpressive 4.73 ERA in his career outings against the Athletics. As for the A's pitching, their bullpen finally caved in last night and there were three homers hit in yesterday's game. The Angels had one of the round-trippers while also pounding out three other extra-base hits. I look for the solid hitting from last night to carry right over into today. Eric Surkamp is getting the start for Oakland and he is making just the 9th start of his MLB career. He threw 81 innings to get just 13 outs in his first start this season as he was pulled after 4 and 1/3 innings. That's not a good sign of what to expect from him here as the Angels are hitting .275 so far in this series. The over is now 32-22 in Angels April games the past three years and 19-10 in A's games where they are at home with a money line ranging from -100 to -125. *7* OVER in Oakland |
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04-13-16 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 7.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 in New York Mets vs Miami @ 1:10 ET - Adam Conley only got to throw one inning against the Nationals in his first start because a lengthy rain delay followed. However, that one inning did not go well at all and this is still a guy who only has made a total of 12 starts in his MLB career. The Marlins lefty was 3-0 on the road last season but in his 8 games (6 starts) away from home he had a 4.17 ERA. His stuff is far from phenomenal and he was hit at a .270 clip in his starts last season. He'll be opposed by Logan Verrett who is only getting the start because of the injury to Jacob deGrom. Like Conley, Verrett doesn't have a lot of starting experience at the MLB level. The Mets right-hander has made only 4 starts in his MLB career. The Marlins have been hitting the ball well and are averaging 5 runs per game this season. The Mets sticks have struggled but certainly come to life at home against a southpaw who is still trying to shake off what was an "eventful" first start this season. With this total moving downward in the markets this also is adding even more value to this play. Even with yesterday's under, the over is still a solid 31-20 in Marlins April games since 2014 and strong 82-61 in Mets divisional games since 2014. *8* OVER 7.5 in New York Mets |
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04-12-16 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11 in Colorado vs San Francisco @ 8:40 ET - As usual the ball will carry well in the thin air at Coors Field Tuesday night. Helping the cause is the fact that the wind may also be switching around during this game and the light breeze may add even a little more help in terms of carry on the ball. Of course the favorable ballpark setting is the reason this total is so high but it certainly is justified. This is especially true based on this pitching match-up. The Giants will have Jeff Samardzija on the mound. He only gave up 3 runs in his start at Milwaukee last week but he was very fortunate as the Brewers were constantly throughout his start. The key factor here is that baserunners at Coors Field are much tougher to strand than at any other ballpark in the league. The Rockies will have Tyler Chatwood on the hill. He is recovering from Tommy John surgery and really hasn't seen significant time on the mound in the majors since 2013. That year he was hit at a .294 clip in his outings at Coors Field. Overall, in his career, he's been hit at a .287 clip at the major league level. The Giants have gotten to him for 9 earned runs in 12 innings the last two times they've faced him. San Francisco hit 3 homers against him the last time they faced Chatwood at Coors Field. The Rockies bullpen has an unsightly 11.37 ERA so this could be a huge night for the Giants sticks in Denver. The Rockies are averaging 7 runs per game in their 4 games against right-handed starters this season. Look for this one to fly over the total as both teams should get at least 7 runs in what should be an absolute slug-fest. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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04-12-16 | Pirates v. Tigers OVER 8 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 in Detroit vs Pittsburgh @ 1:10 ET - It will be chilly in Detroit this afternoon but not brutal. The wind will be blowing out so that also helps. The Pirates won 7-4 here yesterday and that was the 5th time in the last 6 meetings (in Detroit) between these clubs that an over has resulted. The Pirates have scored at least 4 runs in 5 of their 7 games so far this season. The Tigers have scored at least 4 runs in all 5 of their games this season. This is significant because getting each of these teams to 4 runs guarantees us of a win as the game can't end 4-4. We'll get over the 8 here. Juan Nicasio had a great first start for Pittsburgh but that was evening game and it was at home. Now he's on the road in a day game and Nicasio had a 6.39 ERA with a .393 BAA in day games last season! Having not been a full time starter since the first half of the 2014 seasons, there could be an adjustment phase for the Pirates right-hander early this season. He'll be opposed by the Tigers Anibal Sanchez in this one. The Detroit righty has lost each of his last three starts against the Pirates and he gave up 13 earned runs in 20 innings with 5 home runs allowed in these 3 starts. Pittsburgh got their bats going again yesterday afternoon and that spells trouble for Sanchez today. Detroit is 70-49 to the over in day games and the Tigers are 92-65 to the over when the total is posted at 8 or 8.5 runs. *8* OVER in Detroit |
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04-11-16 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | 1-10 | Win | 111 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 +110 in St Louis vs Milwaukee @ 4:15 ET - Taylor Jungmann of the Brewers had a successful first start this season but that was at home. On the road last season the young right--hander went 4-6 with a 5.02 ERA. He was plagued by the home run ball on the road and, even though the wind is expected to be blowing from left to right in this game, the ball is known for carrying well at Busch Stadium in day games. Also, the air is drying out as a cold front as moved through and with less density than usual in the air, this also helps the carry of the ball. Jungmann got roughed up in September at St Louis and allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers. I look for a similar tough outing for him this afternoon as the Cardinals sticks come into this game red hot. The Cards have won three straight games and scored 31 runs in the process! St Louis will have Michael Wacha on the mound. He had a rough first start at Pittsburgh and while many are expecting him to bounce back in this start because he had so much success at Busch Stadium last year, I beg to differ. Something seems wrong with Wacha. He had a rough ending last season with a 7.88 ERA in September, then he got hit at a .342 clip in spring training this year, and then he got pummeled by the Pirates in his first start. Look for Wacha's struggles to continue this afternoon. *8* OVER in St Louis |
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04-11-16 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 in Boston vs Baltimore @ 2:05 ET - The Red Sox and Orioles are both off to strong starts at the plate this season. The fact that Boston got shutout yesterday makes this play even stronger as the Red Sox had averaged 7.5 runs of offense per game and gone over the total in each of their first four games this season. I am well aware of the fact that both the Orioles Yovani Gallardo and Boston's David Price had solid outings in their first start of the season. However, they also faced two of the weaker lineups in the league in the form of Minnesota and Cleveland, respectively. That said, the Red Sox were red hot at the plate before yesterday's shutout and they will respond at the plate in their home opener. As for the Orioles, they are hitting nearly .300 on the young season and they are averaging nearly 10 hits per game which has helped lead to a 5-0 start this season. I do have a lot of respect for Boston's Price but the Red Sox southpaw he's facing a very confident Orioles lineup and they do have some hitters that have enjoyed success against him. The wind is blowing out at a good clip at Fenway Park today and the Orioles Gallardo got hammered (including 2 home run balls) in his most recent start at Fenway. *8* OVER in Boston |
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04-10-16 | A's v. Mariners OVER 7 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7 -105 in Seattle vs Oakland @ 4:10 ET - Felix Hernandez is a hurler who I certainly have plenty of respect for but don't be surprised if the A's do some damage against the Mariners ace Sunday afternoon. Hernandez allowed 3 homers in his last 2 starts against the Athletics. Also, in his start prior to those two, the Seattle right-hander allowed 10 hits in 7 innings against Oakland last July. The A's hitters are certainly familiar with him and Oakland already has 20 hits so far in the first two games of this series. Of course the big key to this big play Sunday is that the Mariners sticks should absolutely come back to life here. Seattle should be able to "tee off" against Athletics hurler Chris Bassitt. The righty got roughed up in his first start this season against the White Sox. He also has walked 10 in his last 10 innings of work at Safeco Field. Though he found the plate more in his first start this season (versus the ChiSox) that also resulted in him getting hit hard. Bassitt had some struggles in spring training and they appear to have carried right into the regular season. Also, Bassitt was 0-3 with a 5.12 ERA in his 9 road games (6 starts) last season. In the A's last 96 games with a posted total of 7 or less, only 36 have stayed under the total. The Mariners have struggled at the plate in the first two games of this series but they now face a right-handed starter for the first time since they defeated Colby Lewis and the Rangers 9-5 earlier this week. The M's can pound Bassitt. *10* OVER in Seattle |
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04-10-16 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8 | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 -120 in LA Angels vs Texas @ 3:35 ET - After a pitchers' duel between Cole Hamels and Garrett Richards yesterday, this game looks like the ideal set up for a slug-fest. The Angels will send Jered Weaver to the mound. The veteran right-hander has lost a lot of velocity on his fastball and has been looking very hittable based on what he showed this spring. That spells trouble against a dangerous Rangers lineup and Weaver went an ugly 0-4 with a 6.61 ERA in his 6 day game starts last season. Martin Perez had a successful season opener against the Mariners this season but he's now on the road where he went 0-5 with a 4.81 ERA in 8 starts last season. Also, Perez will be facing an Angels lineup that will be loaded up with hitters from the right side. This is significant because Perez held lefties to a .210 clip last season but got hammered by righties at a .304 clip last year. Also, Perez will be backed by a bullpen that has been one of the majors' worst (0-3, 7.64 ERA, .342 BAA) early this season. All signs are pointing to a solid over in this one. *8* OVER 8 in LA Angels |
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04-09-16 | A's v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Seattle vs Oakland @ 9:10 ET - The A's Rich Hill struggled mightily in his first start this season. He had significant issues with command of his pitches and that included hitting two batters. Hill had a horrible spring training as he went 0-2 in his 4 starts while walking 15 batters in just 12 innings of work. That spells trouble for how things will go tonight as he proved in the season opener that he's just not "ready" for his return to the starting rotation. Remember this is a guy that has mostly worked out of the bullpen for the past 6 seasons! The Mariners will trot out Nate Karns to the mound for tonight's start. He tends to see a lot of his pitches hit to the outfield and the cavernous setting of Safeco Field surely is a deterrent to home run balls but it also allows for some big hits in the gaps in the outfield. That could be an issue for Karns tonight. As a member of the Rays last season he faced the A's once and took the loss in a game where Oakland certainly didn't have too much trouble connecting against him. Yesterday's game stayed under but the over is still 84-62 long-term in Oakland's divisional games. Also, the over is 111-84 in A's night games the past three seasons. The Mariners had scored 19 runs combined in their two games prior to the tight loss to the Athletics yesterday. Look for them to respond in a huge way at the plate tonight as Hill's struggles continue. *10* OVER in Seattle |
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04-08-16 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 +110 in Arizona vs Chicago Cubs @ 9:40 ET - These teams combined for 20 runs yesterday and I look for another big night at the plate from both clubs tonight. The Cubs are scoring an average of 9.7 runs per game so far this season while the Diamondbacks are scoring a respectable average of 6.3 runs per game on the young season. The pitching match-up tonight is conducive to continued success at the plate for both clubs. The Diamondbacks will have Robbie Ray on the mound. I know the southpaw had a solid spring training but there can be a big difference between the games that don't count and the ones that do and he now faces one of the hottest and most dangerous lineups in baseball in a "real game" tonight. Ray went 1-6 with an ugly 4.88 ERA in his home starts for Arizona last season. He got hit at a .285 clip in those home outings and now faces a Cubs lineup that has produced more runs per game than any other team so far this season. Chicago came into this season with a lot of hype and, so far, they are living up to it. As for the Dbacks, their lineup has been very productive and they should enjoy plenty of success against Jason Hammel of the Cubs. The Diamondbacks hit .270 at home last season and only the Rockies had a higher team batting average at home than Arizona. Chicago's Hammel had a great first half last season but then had a 5.10 ERA after the All Star break. With a 4.63 ERA in spring training this year and some continued struggles to keep the ball down in the zone, I expected some carry over from last season's rough finish for Hammel right into the new season. In games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the Cubs have gone 17-9 to the over. The Dbacks April games are on a 30-20 run to the over. *10* OVER in Arizona |
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04-08-16 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 10 | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 10 -115 in Colorado vs San Diego @ 4:10 ET - What is the best thing for a struggling offense? A visit to Coors Field! Yes the Padres have three games in the books already this season and they still have not scored a run! While that may send fear into many playing "over a big number" in their very next game, it should prove to be precisely the right thing to do. The Padres will go from facing three straight tough Dodgers hurlers in pitcher friendly Petco Park to now facing Jordan Lyles in Colorado and his stuff is not overpowering. He has an ERA of 7.00 in his two home starts against the Padres as a member of the Rockies. Overall he had a 5.14 ERA in limited action last season and Lyles compiled a 4.81 ERA in his home starts for Colorado in the 2014 season. Denver can certainly see their fair share of cold weather (and even snow) in April but temperatures will be mild for the home opener Friday. Even though the wind will be blowing in it is expected to be a very light wind. The Padres Colin Rea will be making his first ever career start at Coors Field. Many a pitcher have had disastrous first outings in their initial appearance in the thin air of the mile high city. Rea got roughed up at Philly in his only road start last season and the 25 year old righty faces an even tougher test in his first road start this season. The Rockies have already scored 20 runs in their first three games this season but they've allowed 19. The Padres first three games have seen them allow 25 runs. The key to today's over in this match-up is that San Diego gets their bats on track in a very hitter-friendly venue. This will do wonders for the Padres lineup. The over went 8-2 in Rockies games the past two seasons where they were a home favorite in a price range of 150 to 175 and I look for a wild one in their home opener. *8* OVER in Colorado |
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04-07-16 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Baltimore vs Minnesota @ 7:05 ET - First two games in this series stayed under the total but the Orioles have left 22 men on base in those two contests. With milder weather today, the wind blowing out, and a pair of "questionable" starting pitchers on the mound the situation is perfect for a big "OVER" to put the wraps on this series. After a surprisingly successful season in his first year with Minnesota in 2014, Phil Hughes reverted to usual form last season. In 2015, Hughes was very hittable (.293 BAA) just like he was in 2013 with the Yankees when he also got hit at a .293 clip. Hughes took advantage of home starts in pitcher-friendly Minnesota but struggled on the road with a 2-6 record and 5.10 ERA last season away from home. Camden Yards is hitter-friendly and this is especially true when the wind is blowing out as it will be this evening. The only hope for Hughes is that his offense gives him a lot of run support tonight and that is precisely what I expect to happen. The Twins will be teeing off against the inconsistent Ubaldo Jimenez tonight. The Orioles right-hander had a 5.63 ERA after the All Star break last year. Signs of him returning to his first half form were certainly few and far between this spring as Jimenez compiled a 12.27 ERA in his four spring training starts. The Orioles have a solid bullpen but a lot of damage is going to be done before "damage control" can be called upon in this game. *10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore |
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04-07-16 | White Sox v. A's OVER 8.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Oakland vs Chicago White Sox @ 3:35 ET - Mat Latos is on his 5th team in the last 2 years. Think about that for a minute. Don't you think there might be a reason for that? Yes indeed this guy is a shell of his former self and he compiled a 4.95 ERA last season and followed that up by having a rough spring training (10.38 ERA) this year. He'll be matched up with Kendall Graveman of the A's in this one and he's considered fully recovered from his oblique injury from late last season. However, he still had an ERA up near 5.00 in spring training. Also, last season he struggled in day games as he went 2-5 with a 5.08 ERA in his 10 day game starts. Once Graveman is knocked out of this game, the A's bullpen takes over and Oakland's relievers compiled an ugly 4.63 ERA last season which was "good for" worst in the American League! After yesterday's 2-1 pitchers' duel between a pair of solid arms, this one should more like "batting practice" on Thursday afternoon. Though yesterday's game easily stayed under the total, the past two seasons Oakland has gone 18-8 to the over when they are at home and their money line price is in a range of -100 to -125. *8* OVER in Oakland |
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04-07-16 | Phillies v. Reds OVER 8.5 | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 in Cincinnati vs Philadelphia @ 12:35 ET - Will still be chilly today at Great American Ballpark in Cincy. However, the wind is going to be blowing out at a good clip and this is still well known as being a hitters park. Even with two of the weaker lineups in MLB squaring off, the over is a strong situational play here as both starting pitchers are likely to struggle and the Phillies have already had plenty of "relief" problems with the bullpen blowing games early this season too. Charlie Morton gets the start for the Phillies and he struggled last season and this was particularly noticeable in day games (6.67 ERA) and in road games (5.70 ERA). The Reds hand the ball to rookie Robert Stepehenson who will make his MLB debut. He struggled this spring (9.58 ERA) and had issues with command of his pitches. Those control issues are likely to be even worse with the added pressure of his first MLB regular season start. The over is 21-12 in Phillies Thursday games the past two seasons. The over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings between these clubs. *8* OVER 8.5 in Cincinnati |
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04-06-16 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 runs -105 in Texas vs Seattle @ 2:05 ET - After a good old-fashioned pitchers' duel in game one of this series, the Mariners got their sticks going in yesterday's game two. Now, in the finale of the 3-game set, the Rangers will surely get their bats on track too. Texas is known for crushing the ball in their home park. Today the setting is perfect for the Rangers to get their offense going. Day game. Wind blowing out. Facing a lefty (no team scored more runs against southpaws than the Rangers last season). Left-hander Wade Miley gets the start for the Mariners Wednesday. Miley is winless with a 4.63 ERA in his two career starts at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The southpaw faced the Rangers twice last season as a member of the Red Sox and he went 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA. Texas should have no trouble tracking his pitches on a beautiful day for the hitters today in Arlington. As for the Mariners sticks they should build on yesterday's huge performance. Seattle will be able to "tee off" against Colby Lewis of the Rangers. Last season, the right-hander went 8-3 at home but don't be fooled by the solid record. In his 17 starts in Arlington, Lewis compiled a 5.07 ERA. Also, Lewis went 1-3 with a 6.89 ERA in his 8 day game starts last season. When he faced the Mariners last April he gave up 10 hits in less than 6 innings of work and that was at Seattle. The results in Arlington in April are likely to be even worse! *8* OVER in Texas |
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04-05-16 | Mets v. Royals OVER 8 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs +100 in Kansas City vs New York Mets @ 4:15 ET - Very mild weather in Kansas City is forecast this afternoon and plus gusty winds will be blowing out to left field for this match-up. This, of course, will aid the hitters a bit and I also feel this pitching match-up is highly conducive to the over. First, a few trends certainly worth mentioning. The past 2+ seasons the over is 21-12 in Mets road games where they are priced from -100 to -125. The over is also 28-17 in Mets inter-league games the past 2+ seasons. Though these teams stayed under the total (just barely I might add) in Sunday's season opener, their World Series match-up last fall saw all 5 games over the total. Chris Young gets the start for the Royals this afternoon and he allowed 12 homers in 48 innings of work in day games last season. With him not being a hard thrower and with the weather helping the hitters today, he could be in for a tough afternoon with some big extra base hits. Young's ERA last season was more than a full run higher at home compared to on the road and lefties hit 83 points higher than righties against Young last season and the Mets lineup will be loaded up from that side of the plate today. The Mets will have hard-throwing Noah Syndergaard on the mound this afternoon. Though he was fantastic at home last season he went an ugly 2-5 with an unimpressive 4.23 ERA in his road starts last year. He was hit at a clip that was 62 points higher on the road compared to at home. The Royals again have a powerful lineup and they are especially dangerous at Kauffman Stadium. *10* OVER 8 runs in Kansas City |
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04-05-16 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 7 | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* UNDER 7 runs -120 in NY Yankees vs Houston @ 1:05 ET - The rain that postponed yesterday's game has cleared the area but even colder temperatures have moved in behind the storm system. That said it's going to be a brutally cold day for baseball in the Bronx. Temperatures are expected to be in the 30's with wind chill values well below that as a brutal north wind will also be blowing in today. That sets this up well for a pitchers duel between Keuchel and Tanaka. The Yankees bullpen looks improved over last season (even with lefty Miller dealing with a fracture of his non-throwing hand) and the Astros also are solid in the pen with Giles now the set up man for Gregerson. The Astros played 38 games with a posted total of 7 runs the past two seasons and only 13 of those went over the total. The Yankees played 108 day games the past two seasons and only 44 went over the total. Keuchel held opponents to a .195 batting average in day games last season. Tanaka held opponents to a .203 batting average in day games last year. This shapes up to be a pitchers duel based on the weather, starting pitchers, and bullpens. *8* UNDER 7 runs in NY Yankees |
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10-23-15 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Kansas City Royals OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 7.5 +110 in Kansas City vs Toronto @ 8 ET - While I certainly have a ton of respect for Blue Jays southpaw David Price, the Royals are just such a strong hitting team. They have a very dangerous lineup that becomes even more of a threat for explosions on offense when they are at home. At Kauffman Stadium, this team can really pound the ball. Overall, in all games, prior to scoring just 1 run in Wednesday's loss, the Royals had won 5 of their last 6 games and averaged 8 runs per game in those 8 games. Kansas City did get to Price for 5 earned runs in 6 and 2/3 innings earlier in this series and a repeat performance would not surprise. Additionally, the Blue Jays certainly should match the Royals run for run in this one. Kansas City sends Yordano Ventura to the mound for this one and he was fortunate to only allow 3 earned runs to the Jays when he was matched up against Price on Saturday. Ventura allowed 8 hits in just 5 and 1/3 innings to Toronto and the damage certainly could have been much worse. Even still he has a 6.57 ERA in his last 3 starts and I expect the Jays to hit well here. Toronto is now 4-0 in the post-season when facing elimination and they've averaged 6.5 runs per game in those 4 games. The Jays offense stays hot here but I see a big game from the Royals lineup at home too and that spells O-V-E-R! Play OVER 7.5 runs in Kansas City as a *10* Top Play Friday. |
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10-21-15 | New York Mets v. Chicago Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 105 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets @ 8:05 ET - After yesterday's game barely stayed under the total I see great value with today's posted total even though it's higher. With the wind blowing out to right-center this evening, and with this pitching match-up, the higher total is absolutely justified. The Mets are up 3-0 in this series and they are 24-11 to the over this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Overall, the over is 47-34 in Mets road games this season. Southpaw Steven Matz gets the start for the Mets this evening. Even though his most recent start only saw him allow 3 earned runs, he did give up 10 hits in less than 6 innings of work. The Cubs Jason Hammel has allowed 5 earned runs on 10 hits (including 2 homers) in his last two home starts which have spanned a total of only 7 innings. Look for his struggles at the friendly confines of Wrigley Field to continue tonight. With the recent struggles of these two starters combining with favorable weather conditions for the hitters, I expect a high-scoring slugfest here. Play OVER 9 runs in the Chicago Cubs game as a *10* Top Play Wednesday. |
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10-19-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 8 | Top | 8-11 | Win | 110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Toronto vs Kansas City @ 8:05 ET - The OVER is now 10-2 in Johnny Cueto's last 12 starts. He's allowed 43 earned runs in his last 11 starts and he's only averaged 6 innings per start so that equates to about a 6.00 ERA over a period of 11 starts and, off a rare strong outing in his last start, Cueto is likely to get pounded here. He went just 5-9 on the road this season and, who knows what really happens on weekends around the Royals clubhouse, but an interesting tidbit is that the over is 11-4 this season in Monday games for Kansas City! As for the Blue Jays, the over is 7-2 in October games. Also, the over is 4-1 in playoff games for Toronto. Also, the over is 15-8 this season for the Jays when they are playing after a day off the previous day. The Blue Jays are thrilled to be back home and I look for their powerful line up to ride a wave of emotion here and pound Cueto! Play OVER the total in Toronto as a *10* Top Play selection Monday. |
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10-14-15 | Houston Astros v. Kansas City Royals OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 7.5 runs -103 in Kansas City vs Houston @ 8:05 ET - This total has dropped from an 8 to a 7.5 and I see great value with the over in this one. It should be a cool but pleasant evening in Kansas City and I expect both pitchers to struggle some here. The Astros Collin McHugh certainly has impressive full season numbers. However, he only recorded 1 strikeout in his first start against the Royals in this series. That means, of course, that Kansas City is not having a problem making contact with is offerings and I expect them to do more damage here in their second shot against him tonight. After being held to two runs in the Game 1 loss, the Royals have responded by taking 2 of the next 3 and scoring 16 runs in the process. Look for their offense to remain hot tonight. The issue for KC here is going to be their own pitching. Johnny Cueto truly has struggled in Royals uniform. Though he pitched "okay" against the Astros in the first match-up, he still is involved in a long-term stretch that has seen him allow 41 earned runs in his last 57 and 1/3 innings. That equates to a 6.44 ERA and I certainly expect him to struggle again here. The Astros have scored at least 4 runs in each game in this series and I look for them to get at least that again tonight. With the Royals also hot at the plate, the result should be an easy over. Play OVER 7.5 runs in Kansas City as a *10* Top Play Wednesday. |
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10-13-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Chicago Cubs OVER 8 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 runs in Chicago Cubs vs St Louis @ 4:35 ET - Once again the wind should help some with this total on Tuesday. As for John Lackey of the Cardinals, he is certainly the ultimate gamer and he definitely pitched a gem in game one of this series. However, that was at home and was on regular rest. For Tuesday's game four Lackey is on the road and also coming in on short rest. Note that Lackey is 4-6 (and the Cardinals went 6-10) in his road starts this season. Lackey compiled a 3.82 ERA in those outings which, of course, was not nearly in line with the solid numbers he managed to amass at home this season. Look for Lackey to get "touched up" by a Cubs lineup that is now "feeling it" at the plate after scoring 14 runs in these past two games. The issue for the Cubbies today is going to be their own pitching. Jason Hammel gets the start for Chicago and he had a strong start against the Reds in his final appearance of the regular season but, of course, Cincy was not playing for anything. In his 8 starts prior to that Hammel gave up 27 earned runs in 38 innings for a 6.39 ERA. Look for that type of effort from the Cubs righty today and I look for a 3rd straight easy over in this series. Play OVER 8 runs in the Chicago Cubs game as an *8* selection Tuesday. |
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10-12-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Chicago Cubs OVER 7 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 7 runs -115 in Chicago Cubs vs St Louis @ 6:05 ET - While I have tremendous respect for the season Jake Arrieta has had this year, the wind is going to be blowing out to right in today's game at Wrigley Field. The wind is expected to be quite strong and we've all seen how crazy games can get at Wrigley when the wind is blowing out and this is no matter who is on the mound. With that said, I'll take advantage of the low total here and play this one over the total. The Cardinals also have a solid pitcher on the mound today as Michael Wacha gets the ball. The key here though is the wind and the fact that Wacha has been crushed in his last 3 starts. That included his two road starts in this 3 game stretch where he allowed 2 homers in each of the two road outings and this included a game right here at Wrigley Field on the 19th of last month. Wacha has allowed 4 homers in his last 9 innings against the Cubs. Saturday's game totaled 9 runs and I look for a similar result on Monday. Each of Wacha's last 3 starts went over the total and the Cardinals are 11-5 to the over in his road starts this season. St Louis is 22-11 to the over in their last 33 games against teams with a winning record. Play OVER 7 runs in the Chicago Cubs game as a *10* Top Play Monday. |
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10-12-15 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Texas Rangers OVER 9.5 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 runs -103 in Texas vs Toronto @ 4:05 ET - Yesterday's game between these clubs stayed under the total but that was the first under that the Blue Jays have had in their last 9 games. As for the Rangers, it was their first under in five games. Based on the situation with these starting pitchers Monday, I do expect the hot hitting to resume. As strong as Blue Jays starter R.A. Dickey's overall numbers look, note that he has struggled on the road. Dickey is 2-8 with a 4.83 ERA on the road this season. As for the Rangers Derek Holland, the southpaw has had limited action this season but the results have truly not been good. Holland has a 4.91 ERA overall and an 8.05 ERA in his last three starts. Holland has given up 8 runs on 17 hits (including 5 homers!) in his last two starts (12 innings) against the Jays. In Dickey's most recent start against the Rangers, the Blue Jays knuckler gave up 5 earned runs and his outing included allowing 2 homers in his 7 innings of work. Look for plenty of big hits again at hitter-friendly Arlington on Monday afternoon. Play OVER 9.5 runs in Texas as an *8* selection Monday. |
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10-11-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Houston Astros OVER 7 | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7 runs in Houston vs Kansas City @ 4:05 ET - Though the Astros Dallas Keuchel has incredibly dominant numbers at home this season, I will not be surprised to see the Royals dangerous lineup do some damage in this match-up Sunday. Kansas City has seen Keuchel twice this season and one of those games was in Houston. The Astros southpaw combined to give up 5 earned runs on 17 hits in 14 and 2/3 innings of work against the Royals. As you can see from those stats, Kansas City was able to get some good wood on the ball against the Houston ace. The Royals have won 6 of their last 7 and have averaged scoring 5 runs per game in those 6 victories. The Astros also should enjoy success at the plate this afternoon. Houston will be "teeing off" against the Royals Edinson Volquez. Though the righty gave up just 1 earned run in his most recent start he did allow 9 hits in the 6 innings of work. In his two starts prior to that outing he produced a 4.50 ERA so certainly he has been far from dominant in recent outings! The last time he faced the Astros was just a few months ago in July and he allowed 5 earned runs in just 5 innings of work and that start was in Houston. Look for him to struggle again down in the Lone Star State on Sunday. Play OVER 7 runs in Houston as an *8* selection Sunday. |
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10-10-15 | Chicago Cubs v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 6.5 runs -120 in St Louis vs Chicago Cubs @ 5:35 ET - Though neither one of these teams have been scoring a lot of runs, this Saturday pitching match-up is conducive to an over. The Cubs Kyle Hendricks is winless in four career starts against the Cardinals and he has allowed 7 earned runs in his last 10 and 1/3 innings of works versus St Louis. The Cards got a confidence boost at the plate with putting up 4 runs in yesterday's shutout win over the Cubs. Chicago's lineup should get right back on track here. The Cubs had averaged 6 runs per game in their last 6 games against the Cardinals before being shut down in yesterday's game. The Cards Jaime Garcie struggled in his "playoff tune-up outing" last Friday as he gave up 6 hits and walked 2 in only 4 innings of work. That said, look for the Cubs to do some damage at the plate today after being shutout yesterday. The Cubs are 7-3-1 to the over this season when they were shutout in their prior game. The Cards were on a 20-10 run to the over in their last 30 games against teams with a winning record before yesterday's under result. Look for both teams to get at least 3 in this one and that easily pushes this one over the low number. Play OVER 6.5 runs in St Louis as a *10* Top Play Saturday. |
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10-09-15 | Houston Astros v. Kansas City Royals OVER 7.5 | 4-5 | Win | 110 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 runs +110 in Kansas City vs Houston @ 3:45 ET - Yesterday's game ticked me off to say the least as my over came just a HALF RUN short due to missed opportunities (all it would have taken is one). Needless to say, payback can be sweet and I look for game two of this series to get over the total rather easily. The Royals Johnny Cueto made 13 starts in a KC uniform and he struggled with a 4-7 record and a 4.76 ERA. He's opposed this afternoon by Scott Kazmir who also has been unimpressive after he switched teams during the summer as well. The Astros southpaw went 2-6 with a 4.17 ERA with Houston. Kazmir is winless in his last 3 starts with very ugly numbers in those outings. The lefty went 0-1 with a 10.03 ERA and a 2.40 WHIP. The Royals Cueto has given up 14 hits and 6 walks for a total of 20 baserunners in the 11 innings spanning his last two starts. With both hurlers struggling, look for this one to eclipse the total early. Play OVER 7.5 runs in Kansas City as an *8* selection Friday. |
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10-09-15 | Texas Rangers v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 7.5 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 in Toronto vs Texas @ 12:45 PM ET - Rangers southpaw Hamels facing a Blue Jays lineup dominated by right-handed power. This is not a good match-up for the lefty. Toronto's right-hander Stroman is facing a Rangers lineup loaded with confidence after notching five runs and a big upset win on the road yesterday over Price. Both teams will do some damage at the plate in this one. The Blue Jays have lost three straight games and they are 5-1 to the over when they enter a game on a winning streak of three games or more. Overall, with yesterday's push included, the Jays have registered just 1 under in their last 11 games. Play OVER 7.5 runs in Toronto as an *8* selection Friday. |
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10-08-15 | Houston Astros v. Kansas City Royals OVER 7.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 in Kansas City vs Houston @ 8:05 ET - The Astros have not only won 7 of their last 9 games, they've also averaged 6.7 runs per game in those 9 games and they've pounded out an average of 10.4 hits per game in their last 10 games. I certainly respect what Yordano Ventura has done for the Royals and he's certainly been hot to close out the season. However, he's going to have his hands full here because the Astros simply have so much confidence at the plate right now. Though Ventura had a solid start against Houston in his most recent outing against them, his prior start against the Astros saw him allow five earned runs on 7 hits and 3 walks in less than 3 innings of work. He won't be the only pitcher getting hit hard tonight. Colin McHugh gets the start for the Astros and he has a 4.05 ERA on the road this season. He had a strong season-ending start at Arizona but, prior to that, he allowed at least 4 earned runs in 3 of his 4 prior starts (and allowed 5 earned runs in each of the two road outings during this stretch). The under recorded at Arizona was just his 2nd under in his last 7 starts. Like the Astros, the Royals lineup also will have plenty of confidence at the plate tonight as they've won five straight games and averaged 5 runs per game during this winning streak. Play OVER 7.5 runs in Kansas City as an *8* selection Thursday. |
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10-06-15 | Houston Astros v. New York Yankees OVER 7 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in NY Yankees vs Houston @ 8:05 ET Tuesday - Houston's Dallas Keuchel has had a great season but he's only gone 5-8 on the road and has compiled a 3.71 ERA away from home. He's also making this start on short rest as he started Friday's game at Arizona. In that outing he only recorded 3 strikeouts and the southpaw, on short rest, could have trouble inducing a lot of "swings and misses" in this match-up with the Bronx Bombers. The Yanks have 10 hits per game in their last five home games and their lineup will be ready here for playoff action. However, the concern for the Yanks is that Masahiro Tanaka was rocked by the Astros in his only career start against them. The righty faced Houston back in late June and allowed 6 earned runs in his 5 innings of work as he was vicitimized by three homers. Look for Tanaka to struggle again here. The over is 13-5 the last 3 years in Yankees home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less. Also, as a home dog of +100 to +125, the over is 5-2 in Yanks games this season. Play OVER 7 runs in the New York Yankees game as a *10* Top Play Tuesday. |
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10-04-15 | Houston Astros v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 in Arizona vs Houston @ 3:10 ET - Big game for the Astros and they certainly should score plenty of runs here. Arizona is sending Robbie Ray to the mound for this one. The southpaw was great before the All Star break but has been anything but ever since then. Also, on the season, Ray has struggled at home with a 1-6 mark and a 4.94 ERA. He'll be opposed by the Astros Lance McCullers who hasn't exactly impressed in his road outings this season. In fact, the Houston right-hander is 2-6 with a 4.68 ERA away from home this season. The Astros are on a 6-1 run and have averaged nearly 8 runs per game during this hot streak. The Diamondbacks are 7-5 in their last 12 games and have averaged nearly 6 runs per game in the 7 wins. Both teams will do some damage at the plate in this one. The over is 7-3 in Dbacks home games this season when they are a home dog of +125 to +150. The over is 10-4 in Astros road games where they are a favorite of -125 to -150. Play OVER 8.5 runs in Arizona as an *8* selection Sunday. |
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10-04-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Minnesota Twins OVER 8 | 6-1 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 in Minnesota vs Kansas City @ 3:10 ET - Ricky Nolasco will be making his first start since May and don't be fooled by the right-handers 5-1 record on the season. The veteran hurler has a 5.97 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP on the season. He's likely to get pounded here by a Royals club that has won four straight games and pounded out 36 hits in the process. Kansas City will have Johnny Cueto on the mound for this one. The right-hander has struggled since mid-August. In this 8-start stretch entering the season finale, Cueto has given up 36 earned runs in 46 and 1/3 innings for 6.99 ERA. Look for the Twins to get to him early and often in this one and I'll gladly take advantage of the low total posted on this game. As a road fave of -125 to -150, the over is 9-3 in Royals games this season. Play OVER 8 runs in Minnesota as an *8* selection Sunday. |
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10-04-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. Texas Rangers OVER 8.5 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 in Texas vs LAA @ 3:05 ET - A lot of pressure in this series but it sure seems to have impacted the pitchers more than the hitters. A huge game on Sunday's MLB card and after the Angels big rally in the top of the 9th (and the fact that yestersday's game totaled 21 runs) no one should be surprised when more craziness erupts at the ballpark in Arlington this afternoon. Garrett Richards of the Angels is having to make a start on 3 days rest for the first time in his career. Not only is that tough but Richards has not been as effective at home as he has been on the road all season long. The Angels right-hander has a 4.59 ERA on the road this season. He'll be opposed by Cole Hamels who has, overall, pitched well for the Rangers, but he was shaky and allowed 6 earned runs versus Detroit in his most recent start. He has allowed a total of 19 earned runs in his last 6 home starts and the Angels sticks are red hot right now. Play OVER 8.5 runs in Texas as an *8* selection Sunday. |
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10-03-15 | Oakland A's v. Seattle Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs -120 in Seattle vs Oakland @ 9:10 ET - This total has dropped to a 7.5 which is offering even more value for over players. The A's are sending southpaw Sean Nolin to the mound in this one. The lefty is winless in his last three starts with a 7.30 ERA and a 2.03 WHIP. As you can see, Nolin is clearly not in good form to close out the season and I expect him to struggle again here. He gave up 3 earned runs in 6 innings while walking 3 and only striking out one in his only career start against the Mariners. Seattle's Roenis Elias has given up 3 earned runs in each of his last two starts against the Athletics and Oakland notched a round-tripper in each of those outings. Yesterday's game between these teams stayed under the total but this was first under that the A's have had in their last ten games. Also, each of Nolin's last two starts have gone over the total. The over is 20-8 in Seattle's last 28 games against teams with a losing record. The A's are 45-24 to the over in their divisional games this season. Play OVER 7.5 runs in Seattle as a *10 Top Play Saturday. |
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10-02-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. Texas Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Texas vs LA Angels @ 8:05 ET - These teams combined to stay under the total yesterday but, in the Angels 10 prior games they only had 3 unders. As for the Rangers, prior to back to back unders, Texas had been on an 8-1-1 run to the over in their 10 prior games. The Angels Jered Weaver has taken advantage of pitcher-friendly Anaheim during his career as an Angel. As usual, the veteran righty is struggling on the road this season. Weaver has gone 3-10 with a 6.33 ERA in his road starts this season! Before yesterday's rare under, the over was a perfect 5-0 this season in games played in Texas. The Rangers send Martin Perez to the mound this evening. The southpaw has a 4.71 ERA in his home starts this season and that's even with being quite fortunate in his most recent start at Globe Life Park in Arlington. In that game Perez allowed 9 hits but just 1 earned run in his 7 innings of work. The Angels are 42-30 to the over this season when off of a loss. Overall. in road games the last three seasons, the over is 130-102 in Angels games. The Rangers have won three straight and they've had just 10 unders in 27 games when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Play OVER 9 runs in Texas as a *10* Top Play Friday. |
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10-02-15 | Cincinnati Reds v. Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 7 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7 runs in Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati @ 7:05 ET - I definitely have respect for Francisco Liriano and the solid overall season he has had for the Pirates. However, in his last five home starts he's allowed 16 earned runs in 20 and 2/3 innings of work. That said, in home starts in the months of August and September combined, Liriano compiled a 6.97 ERA. Look for the Reds to get some revenge after struggling against them the last time they faced him. The real key here is that Cincinnait pitcher Keyvius Sampson is likely to get rocked again. The righty has a 5.73 ERA in his last three starts and certainly that could easily have been even worse as he's compiled a 2.09 WHIP in these three outings. Sampson has a 6.80 ERA and 1.92 WHIP overall this season. He has simply proven to be too hittable at the MLB level and the Pirates will lineup will be happy to prove that once again tonight. The over is 7-4 in his starts this year and the over is 11-4 in Liriano's home starts this season. The over is 7-2 in the Reds last nine games. The Pirates were off yesterday and are 13-5 to the over this season when playing with a day off. Play OVER 7 runs in Pittsburgh as an *8* selection Friday. |
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10-01-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Francisco Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in San Francisco vs LA Dodgers @ 3:45 ET - The Dodgers Brett Anderson has been completely crushed in his last two starts. The LA southpaw has given up 11 earned runs on 20 hits in just 8 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two outings. The Giants will have Tim Hudson on the mound. The veteran right-hander is having some issues with command of his pitches. This has led to him lasting just 11 and 2/3 innings in his last 3 starts combined and he's walked 9 batters in that limited work. Hudson allowed two homers to the Dodgers the last time he faced them. Los Angeles' left-hander Anderson has gone 1-4 with a 4.97 ERA in his career against the Giants. Seven of Anderson's last nine overall starts have gone over the total. Two of Hudson's last three overall starts have gone over the total. Play OVER 7.5 runs in San Francisco as a *10* Top Play Thursday. |
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10-01-15 | Chicago Cubs v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 8 | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 runs in Cincinnati vs Chicago Cubs @ 12:35 ET - The over is 4-1 in John Lamb's home starts this season. He has a 6.65 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP in his home starts. The Cubs Jason Hammel is also struggling with a 7.10 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP in his last three starts. The over yesterday was the 6th for the Reds in their last 8 games. On the road with a total of 8 or 8.5 the over is 15-9 in Cubs games this year. At home with a total of 8 or 8.5 the over is 23-13 in Reds games this year. The Reds gave up 10 runs yesterday and the over is 8-3 this season in Cincy games when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. Play OVER 8 runs in Cincinnati as an *8* selection early Thursday afternoon. |
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09-30-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Francisco Giants OVER 7 | 0-5 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *6* OVER 7 in San Francisco @ 10:15 ET - Mike Leake has struggled for the Giants since coming over from the Reds. In a San Francisoc uniform Leake has gone 1-5 with a 4.86 ERA in eight starts. Ironically it's been similar results for the Dodgers hurler tonight too. Mike Bolsinger has stayed within the same organization but he was sent to the minors and he has not been the same since he got called back up to the parent club. Bolsinger has an unsightly 8.66 ERA in his last four starts! The Dodgers did roll 8-0 yesterday and have gone over the total in 6 of their last 9 games. The Giants have also been an over "tear" of late with overs in six of their last seven games. The Dodgers bullpen has a 4.97 ERA on the road this season. The Giants Leake has allowed 16 earned runs in his last 20 and 2/3 innings so, as you can see, things are getting worse for him rather than better. The Dodgers have averaged 5 runs per game in their last 7 games. The Giants have averaged 5 runs per game in their last 9 games and that includes yesterday's shutout loss. look for the San Francisco lineup to bounce right back tonight. |
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09-30-15 | Milwaukee Brewers v. San Diego Padres OVER 7 | 5-0 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *6* OVER 7 in San Diego @ 10:10 ET - The Padres send Andrew Cashner to the mound tonight. He has struggled a bit of late with a 5.09 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Too many walks and too many mistake pitches are leading to trouble for Cashner. The way the Brewers are playing right now this is a concern for him tonight. Milwaukee is playing very loose right now because, of course, their season has been long over. That said, they can be a dangerous lineup to face. The Brewers are only 5-5 in their last 10 games but they have scored at least four runs in 7 of those 10 games and this is a very low total on this game. Not only that but the Padres should certainly match the Brewers run for run. San Diego will "tee off" against Milwaukee's Zach Davies. The right-hander is off of a strong start in his most recent outing but he had given up 9 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work spanning his two prior starts and the Padres are 71-42 to the over in their games against right-handed starters this season. The over is 36-22 in Brewers games against teams with a losing record this season. |
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09-30-15 | Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *6* OVER 8.5 in Arizona @ 9:40 ET - The Rockies Chad Bettis has been on a good run of late but I look for the Diamondbacks to pound him just like they did the last time they saw him. That outing was back on the final day of August and he was pounded for 11 hits and 4 earned runs in 6 innings. Coincidentally he now faces them on the final day of the very next month and I look for him to get pounded here. 5 of the 6 meetings between these teams in Arizona this season had resulted in overs before yesterday's rare under. Look for the sticks to re-awaken tonight. The Rockies should "tee off" against the Diamondbacks Chase Anderson. The Arizona right-hander has been inconsistent throughout this season. Anderson is off of a strong start but he was rocked for 8 runs on 13 hits in just 7 innings of work spanning his two prior starts. That included a start against the Rockies and Anderson has a 5.73 ERA in his career against Colorado and struggles again here. |
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09-30-15 | Chicago Cubs v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 7.5 | 10-3 | Win | 108 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLBÂ *6* OVER 7.5 in Cincinnati @ 7:10 ET - The Reds Anthony DeSclafani is fading late this season as the workload has seemed to catch up with him. The Cincinnati right-hander has given up 9 earned runs in less than 11 innings of work spanning his last two starts. Jon Lester gets the start for the Cubs. The veteran left-hander has a 4.74 ERA against the Reds this season and tonight marks the fourth time this season that Cincy gets a shot at him. Yesterday's game stayed under the total but prior to that, four of the five meetings between these teams in Cincinnati this year had gone over the total. The over is 18-9 in Reds games so far in the month of September. Cincy has allowed an average of 8 runs per game in their last 7 games. Look for more of the same today with DeSclafani on the mound. |
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09-30-15 | Oakland A's v. Los Angeles Angels OVER 9 | 8-7 | Win | 105 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *6* OVER 9 in LA Angels @ 7:05 ET - Oakland's Barry Zito gave up four runs on six hits in less than three innings of work against the Giants last week. The veteran southpaw now makes this start on just three days and, based on the way his first MLB start in two years went, I don't expect much from Zito today either. He's likely to be limited to 70 pitches and this will expose an A's bullpen that has a 5.01 ERA on the road this season. The Angels will have Garrett Richards on the mound and the right-hander has a 3.92 ERA in his last three starts but has been a little shaky. He's allowed a homer in each outing and 4 walks in each start too. In his last start against the A's he gave up 8 hits and 3 earned runs in 6 innings of work. This one could be worse based on the way the A's have been hitting the ball. The over is 17-7 in A's games in September. On the season, the over is 44-23 in Oakland's games against divisional opponents. |
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09-30-15 | Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees OVER 8 | 9-5 | Win | 106 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *6* OVER 8 in NY Yankees @ 7:05 ET - Boston's Wade Miley fell apart in his last start after going well for the first five innings. That is the type of outing that is difficult to bounce back from as you then pitch in anticipation of when the next big inning is going to prove to be your downfall once again. Making matters even more challenging for Miley Wednesday is that he allowed six earned runs in less than six innings of work against the Yankees when he last faced them and that was only two months ago. The Yanks will certainly be ready to pound him again here but they will have pitching issues of their own. Masahiro Tanaka is coming back from a right hamstring strain and will struggle in trying to get comfortable again on the mound. Being a righty, he needs to push off with that right leg when delivering to the plate. I expect the hammy to still be bothering him in this start tonight. Also he has an unimpressive 4.84 ERA in his career starts against the Red Sox. The Yankees lost 10-4 last night and the over is 9-4 this season in Yankees games when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. |
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09-29-15 | Chicago Cubs v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 8.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
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