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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-12-23 | Liberty v. Fever +9.5 | 95-87 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SIDE SPECIAL on the Fever. The Fever play with revenge here after falling 90-73 at New York back on May 21st. Indiana has now lost seven straight after a slim 77-76 setback to Dallas last time out. The Liberty get caught looking past their lowly opponent today to time off and to a big representation at the All Star Weekend festivities. Note that Indiana is 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent. New York takes the foot off the gas in the fourth quarter and while I'm stopping short in calling for an outright upset, I say this one is super competitive until the final moments. So grab as many points as you can, the play is INDIANA. Good luck, NP |
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07-12-23 | Sun v. Sky +4 | Top | 84-72 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Chicago Sky. I'm primarily a situational handicapper, and this one sets up beautifully for Chicago in a few different ways from my point of view. The Sky play with revenge here after a 96-72 road loss at Connecticut as 6.5-point dogs back on June 25th. That's significant to note though, as Chicago is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. Chicago had won three straight SU/ATS before back-to-back SU/ATS home losses to ATL most recently. I say the hungry Sky will, at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. The outright is possible, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with CHICAGO. Good luck, NP |
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07-11-23 | Storm +6.5 v. Mystics | Top | 86-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOW on the Storm. I played on the Storm in their 80-76 loss at New York last time out. Seattle was a 15.5 point dog in that one. New York almost got "caught looking ahead" in that one, and with the All-Star break on deck next for Washington, I think the Mystics will get caught looking past their lowly opponent here. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but once again the conditions are right for Seattle to be extremely competitive, especially considering that the Storm have another tough game tomorrow night at Atlanta to close out their first half. Washington has been playing poorly, just 1-3 in its last four and the Storm play with the added incentive of revenge after the Mystics took both games in Seattle back on June 9th and 11th (and note that Seattle is 5-2 ATS in its last seven in trying ot avenge two or more straight losses vs. an opponent.) A great situational play. Grab the points, the play is SEATTLE. Good luck, NP |
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07-09-23 | Montreal +7.5 v. BC | Top | 19-35 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Montreal. BC looked like the team to beat in the CFL until last week's 45-24 loss at Toronto. Now the Lions face another tough team here in Montreal, which also comes in off a terrible outing, falling 17-3 at home to Winnipeg. So is Montreal is good as its 2-0 start, or is it as bad as it's defeat at home to the Bombers last week? Is BC as good as its 3-0 start, or is it as bad as last week's confusing effort?! In my opinion, the answer is neither. They're neither as good as their respective quick starts would imply, and they're not nearly as terrible as last week's losses. These team's defensive numbers though are very similar. This game is going to be won in the trenches, and by field position, and in a contest like that, it's going to be whichever team has its hands on the ball last that comes out on top. Because of that, I'm grabbing the points. The play is the ALOUETTES. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-09-23 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL WEST TOY on the OVER Rockies/Giants. These teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Rockies are just 14-32 on the road. They're 1-1 so far in thi series, but fell 5-3 yesterday. Both games have gone UNDER the number. The Giants have now won two of three, but they've seen the total go UNDER the number in four straight. Despite that though, note that San Francisco has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last seven after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Kyle Freeland is 4-9 with a 4.93 ERA for the Rockies, while Logan Webb is 7-7 with a 3.38 ERA for the Giants. A couple of decent starters to be honest, but this is just a case of each being in the WRONG PLACE at the WRONG TIME. This number is low, the play is the OVER. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-09-23 | Wings v. Fever +2 | Top | 77-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF GOY on the Fever. Dallas comes in off a huge 80-78 win at home over Las Vegas (the Aces now fall to 16-2) as a 9.5-point underdog, and after that epic victory, I'm expecting an immediate return to mediocrity here. Dallas is now 9-9 and second in the Western Conference, but with a match at Minnesota up next (who is also 9-9 and actually tied with the Wings for second place), there's no question that this also sets up as a "look ahead" spot for the visitors. Letdown + look-ahead = TRAP GAME. Indiana is just 5-13 and it's lost six straight. But that fact has only helped in skewing this line today, flipping the value to this now undervalued home dog. When these teams last played in Minnesota last year, the Lynx won by a score of 95-91 in OT as 13-point favorites. I expect a similar final outcome here as well. Grab the points, the play is INDIANA. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-08-23 | New England v. New York Red Bulls -120 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 31 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL WINNER on the Red Bulls. The Revs have been better offensively this year, but with Carles Gil being forced to miss this game due to suspension, the advantage swings to the home side. The Red Bulls only sit three-points back of a playoff spot, so this a golden opportunity, and one which I expect they make the most of. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-08-23 | Mariners v. Astros -125 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Astros. This is a public play, but I still really like the Astros here, and at this price, I can't avoid playing it. Seattle is now 44-43, one game over .500 after winning six of its last seven, including the first two games of this series. Note though that Houston is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. A big starting pitching mismatch as well, as Bryan Woo is 1-1 with a 4.08 ERA for the M's, while Framber Valdez is 7-6 with a 2.49 ERA for the Astros. A letdown is imminent here for Seattle after finally getting over the .500 hump. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-08-23 | Ottawa v. Hamilton -145 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 80 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Ti-Cats. Over the years, the Ti-Cats have responded well in this spot for bettors, going a near-perfect 5-1 ATS in their last six after three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. Hamilton is indeed coming off a third-straight loss, falling 38-12 here at home to Montreal as a 2.5-point favorite. But now here's a matchup that the Ti-Cats can handle. Ottawa earned its first win of the year in a 26-7 win at home over theElks last week, but an immediate return to mediocrity is expected here on the road. These teams are similar in many respects, but in my opinion, the Ti-Cats have played the three toughest teams in the league so far, and this is the week they put it all together with a solid win and cover. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-08-23 | Royals v. Guardians OVER 8 | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SLUG-FEST on the OVER Royals/Guardians. KC has now lost five straight; note though that the Royals have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight losses in a row. KC has also played to three straight UNDERS, which is signficant to note as well, as the Royals have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight UNDRES in a row. Cleveland has also seen the total go UNDER in three straight now, which is important to note, as the Guardians are have seen the total go OVER in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. I don't really trust either starter. The Royals go with Brady Singer, who is an uninspiring 5-7 with a 5.52 ERA. The home side counters with the little known Gavin Williams, who is 0-1 with a 3.79 ERA. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-08-23 | Storm +16.5 v. Liberty | Top | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* EXPRESS on the Storm. New York is first in the East. It's 12-4. It's off back-to-back wins, including an 81-66 win at Seattle on July 2nd, followed by a 99-95 victory at home here to Phoenix. The Storm have responded well in this spot for bettors though, going 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. I think the Liberty finally get caught a little flat-footed here and I look for the STORM to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-07-23 | Calgary +8.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 11-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Calgary. Calgary fell flat in Week 1 in a 25-15 setback at home to BC, and then bounced back with a 25-15 win as a 6.5-point fav at Ottawa in Week 2. And then in Week 3 it lost 29-26 in OT at home to Saskatchewan as a 2-point favorite. With a week off to prepare, I look for the Stamps to be organized enough to, at the very least, keep it competitive enough to easily cover with the spread here. Winnipeg has only had one major hiccup, and that was in its 30-6 home loss here to BC back in Week 3, but it still enters Week 5 sitting at 3-1 after a bounce-back 17-3 win at Montreal last week. The bottom line here is that Jake Maier leads a Stampeders' offense that has the capability of keeping pace with the Bombers. Maier had three TD passes in the loss to the Riders. I like Calgary to keep this one close down the stretch. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-07-23 | Dream v. Sky UNDER 170.5 | Top | 82-68 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-COAST TOTAL EXPRESS on the UNDER Dream/Sky. Atlanta has won three straight, and it's seen the total go OVER the number in six straight. Despite it going OVER in its 90-79 upset win at LA last time out, note that ATL has still seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. Chicago has won three straight, and seen the total go OVER in two in a row. This is the opener of a home-and-home set between the clubs, and everything points to more of a defensive affair, than a wide-open "shootout" here in the first one. This is a great situational play on the total. The play is the UNDER. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest.) Good luck, NP |
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07-07-23 | Royals v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL TOTAL OF MONTH on the OVER Royals/Guardians. These teams have been playing to some lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Royals have lost four straight, including the opener of this one yesterday by a score of 6-1. THey've seen the total go UNDER in two straight now, but note despite the lost yesterday, KC has still seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 after three or more straight losses in a row. Cleveland has been trading wins and losses over its last five games and has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four. Daniel Lynch is 2-3 with a 4.14 ERA for the Royals, while Aaron Civale is 2-2 with a 2.96 ERA for the Guardians. These guys have actually been decent, but this just a case of each being in the wrong place at the wrong time. A great situational play backed by strong trends. The play is the OVER. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest.) Good luck, NP |
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07-06-23 | Edmonton Elks +8 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 11-12 | Win | 100 | 33 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Elks. Despite being 0-4 SU/ATS, I like Edmonton to, at the very least, to do just enough to earn a hard-fought cover with the large spread that it's been afforded this week. The Elks are still 8-4 ATS in their last 12 after three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. Saskatchewan has looked OK, but this is also a revenge spot for the Elks, who fell 17-13 in Week 1 on the road vs. the Riders. Note as well that Edmonton is 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent. Off the 29-26 OT win as an underdog over Calgary, coming off their bye week, and with a rematch vs. the Stamps next week, I'm predicting that Saskatchewan comes out flat here. Outright win?! Anything's possible, but in a contest that I do indeed believe will be a lot tighter than what this spread is suggesting, I'm grabbing the points. The play is EDMONTON. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-06-23 | Storm v. Sun UNDER 164.5 | Top | 73-93 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Storm/Sun. These teams played last month in the PNW and Connecticut won by a score of 85-79, the total went OVER the number of 160.5 in that one. While that total did go OVER, I'm anticipating more of a defensive affair this time around. The Sun have lost two straight after a 102-84 setback at Las Vegas last time out. Connecticut has now seen the total go OVER the number in three straight, but that's significant for us to take note of, as Connecticut has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. Seattle has lost three straight. It's off a listless 81-66 setback to New York at home. The Storm however have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. The overall situation, combined with these numbers/trends does indeed make the UNDER the correct call in this matchup as far as the total is concerned. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-06-23 | Cardinals v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
10* UNDER Cards/Marlins (NL TOM) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The total has gone OVER the number in the first four games of this four-game series. Miami has won the first three. Note that St. Louis has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge three or more straight losses against an opponent. And note that Miami has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. Jack Flaherty is 5-5 with a 4.60 ERA for the Cards, while Eury Perez is 5-2 with a 2.47 ERA for Miami. Expect these two to battle deep into the latter frames, and then look for that to help in driving this total UNDER the posted number. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-05-23 | Dream v. Sparks UNDER 168.5 | Top | 90-79 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* EXPRESS on the UNDER Dream/Sparks. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. In fact, Atlanta just beat LA 112-84 at home and the Dream have now seen the total go OVER the number in four straight. Note that LA though has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent. The Sparks have now lost three straight, which is also significant to note here, as LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after three or more SU losses in a row. The overall situation (having just played against each other), combined with the above strong/relevant O/U ATS stats does indeed make the UNDER the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one. Good luck, NP |
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07-05-23 | Angels v. Padres UNDER 9 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DUEL on the UNDER Angels/Padres. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Angels have seen the total go OVER in both losses here in San Diego to open this IL series, but note that LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight road losses against an opponent. And San Diego has now seen the total go OVER in five of its last six. Two decent starters going head-to-head and I'm expecting them to battle into the deeper innings: The visitors go with Patrick Sandoval (4-7, 4.57 ERA), while the home side counters with Seth Lugo (3-4, 3.59.) (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-05-23 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Cubs/Brewers. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here this evening. The Cubs have seen the total go OVER in three straight now after breaking a three-game slide with a 7-6 win in the second game of this three-game series. Note though that Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Milwaukee has seen the total go OVER in five straight now after yesterday's loss snapped a three-game win streak. That's also important to take note of here, as the Brewers have seen the total go UNDER in three of their last four after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. We have to exceptional starters going head-to-head, and I think they'll battle deep: Justin Steele (9-2, 2.43 ERA) gets the nod for the Cubs, while Adrian Houser (3-2, 3.88) counters for the Brewers. Everything points to a classic "duel" here, so the play is the UNDER. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-04-23 | Blue Jays v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Jays/White Sox. Toronto has lost three straight, and seen the total go OVER in two straight. Note though that the Jays have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Chicago lost two of three to Oakland over the weekend, and it's seen the total go OVER the number in five straight. That'a also significant to note as the White Sox have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERs ina row. Two really decent starters going head-to-head here as well, and I expect them to go deep. Toronto goes with Chris Bassitt, who is 8-5 with a 4.06 ERA, while Chicago counters with Lucas Giolito, who is 6-5 with a 3.53 ERA. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-04-23 | Toronto FC v. Orlando City SC -155 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER SPECIAL on Orlando City SC. In sports, anything can happen. On "any given Sunday," any team can beat any other team. That said, I don't see any crazy upsets here happening whatsoever, in fact, I believe this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Toronto FC is winless in its last six in the MLS and it doesn't travel well at all. Orlando City SC is 8-5 overall, but it's been in top form the last month, having not lost in three straight MLS games and off a convincing 3-1 win here over Chicago on July 1st. With five straight games on the road after this, look for the home side to figure out how to win this one in regulation. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-04-23 | Braves v. Guardians +1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* WINNER on the Guardians on the runline. The saying, "all good things must come to an end," could not be more apt in this particular situation. Atlanta has been fantastic of late, winning nine in a row, but this is a clear starting pitching mismatch, and grabbing Shane Bieber on the runline option at this price is just too good to turn down in my opinion. Bieber is 5-5 with a 3.48 ERA and he posted a 2.90 ERA in five June starts. Kolby Allard (0-0, 0.00 ERA) makes just his second start of the season. He threw four innings of shutout ball vs. the Twins last Wednesday. Despite that though, a huge nod goes to Bieber at home here. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-03-23 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL EAST TOY on the OVER Orioles/Yanks. It's a big AL East matchup here to open up the new week as we head towards the half way point of the season, and I believe we're in for some offensive fireworks here in the opener. Baltimore is 5.5 games back of Tampa Bay, and New York is 9.5 games back of first place in the division. Tyler Wells is 6-4 with a 3.21 ERA and 0.98 WHIP for the Orioles, while Domingo German is 5-5 with a 4.54 ERA for the Yanks. German had vien up 17 earned runs in consecutive losses to Boston and Seattle, before throwing 99 pitches and getting nine K's in an 11-0 win over the lowly A's last time out. But can anyone say immediate "letdown" spot here after that gem? It's one thing to dominate the A's this year, and quite another to do the same to the Orioles. Baltimore snapped a four-game slide with a 2-1 win over the Twins. Note that Wells is 0-4 with a 5.26 ERA in 12 career appearances vs. New York. Look for these guys to get chased early, and as such when you combine the rest of the information listed above, everything points to this one eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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07-03-23 | BC v. Toronto OVER 47 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 172 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Lions/Argos. BC is 3-0 and it's seen the total go UNDER in three straight. That fact though has only helped in driving this particular Week 4 total a few points lower than it normally would/should be. Also note that BC has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five in after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Toronto is 2-0. It's scored a total of 75 points so far. The new faces on offense are getting better with each week and with the home side pushing the pace throughout, all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-03-23 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 9 | 6-8 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Cubs/Brewers. These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this afternoon. Chicago has lost six of its last seven after yesterday's 8-6 defeat to Cleveland. It's also seen the total go OVER in two of its last three. Milwaukee has won four of its last five afterr taking two of three from the Pirates over the weekend. The Brewers have seen the total go OVER in three straight, which is signiicant to note as Milwaukee has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. We have two really good starting pitchers going head-to-head, and all signs point to these guys being the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. Drew Smyly is 7-5 with a 3.96 ERA for the Cubs, while Julio Teheran is 2-3 witha 2.85 ERA (and 0.93 WHIP), for Milwaukee. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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07-02-23 | Giants v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Giants/Mets. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here and now. The Giants have seen the total go UNDER in six straight. Same as the Mets after their 4-1 win last night. The bottom line is that I don't trust either starter here, as Ross Stripling is 0-2 with a 6.88 ERA, while David Peterson is 2-6 with a 7.00 ERA for the Mets. This O/U line should/could in fact be much larger in my opinion. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-02-23 | Liberty v. Storm UNDER 168 | Top | 81-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Liberty/Storm. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games, but I expect those trends to end this evening, as the numbers and the overall situation point to much more of a defensive affair than what this O/U line is suggesting. The Liberty have seen the total go OVER in four straight after their 98-81 blowout loss to Las Vegas last time out. Despite that high-scoring setback though, note that New York has still seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. The Storm have seen the total go OVER in three straight after their 99-97 OT loss here at home to Minnesota, dropping both games against the Lynx. Note though that Seattle has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. All signs point to a defensive battle in the PNW. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-02-23 | Philadelphia v. Atlanta United UNDER 3 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-CONF TOTAL OF WEEK on the UNDER Philadelphia/ATL. A great situational play here. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this afternoon. Philadelphia is 10-5 and it's seen the total soar OVER in four straight. Note though that the Union have still seen the total go UNDER in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. Atlanta United FC is 7-5 and it has seen the total go OVER in three straight. All of these facts though have helped in driving this particular O/U line a little too high here on Sunday. The play is the UNDER in what I expect to be a classic "war of attrition." (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-01-23 | Diamondbacks v. Angels -120 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Angels. After three straight losses, including a 6-2 setback to open this interleague series, I expect the Angels to finally bounce back here on Saturday. Great price considering that they're 5-1 in their last six in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. They're also 7-3 in their last ten after three or more straight home losses in a row. Arizona goes with Ryne Nelson, who is 4-4 with a 4.97 ERA. LA counters with Tyler Anderson, who is 4-2 with a 5.54 ERA. For arguments sakes, let's call these starters a "wash." The overall situation, combined with the above listed ATS trends (and also taking into account this extremely reasonable price), however do indeed make LA the correct call here on Saturday night. Good luck, NP |
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07-01-23 | Real Salt Lake v. Toronto FC +112 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 51 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* MLS GOW on Toronto FC. Toronto hasn't won in five straight MLS contests, including losing the last two outright, first falling 3-0 at Cincinnati, and then 2-1 at New England. Now back North of the border, I expect that a little "home cooking" is just what the doctor ordered. Real Salt Lake hasn't lost in MLS action for six games, most recently drawing 2-2 with Minnesota at home, previous to that pulling off two epic outright road victories at DC (as a +406 dog) and then at St. Louis (as a +323 dog.) Suffice it to say, I don't expect lightning to strike three times here in Toronto. After a stretch of really tough games, look for the home side to take advantage of this favorable matchup. The play is TORONTO FC. Good luck, NP |
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07-01-23 | Winnipeg v. Montreal UNDER 48.5 | Top | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 51 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* CFL TOTAL BEST OF BEST on the UNDER Bombers/Als. Winnipeg is 2-1, while Montreal is 2-0. Last week though the Blue Bombers got punched in the mouth in their 30-6 home loss to the Lions. Now they face a similar difficult defense here in Montreal, which has given up a total of just 24 points this season. With this game being played in Montreal, I'm expecting the Als to control the pace. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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07-01-23 | Giants v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SLUG-FEST on the OVER Giants/Mets. These teams have been playing to some rather lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting some offensive fireworks here finally on Saturday afternoon. San Francisco snapped a two-game slide with a 5-4 come from behind win here yesterday and it's now seen the total go UNDER in five straight. Note though that the Giants have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last six after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. The Mets have seen the total go UNDER in five straight as well. They've lost five of their last six as well. Two teams in need of a win here face two starters whose efforts this season could best be described as: "pedestrian." Anthony DeSclafani is 4-7 with a 4.28 ERA for the Giants, while Justin Verlander is 2-4 with a 4.11 ERA for the Mets. The situation and numbers all point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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07-01-23 | Sun v. Aces UNDER 170 | Top | 84-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Sun/Aces. Both teams are super solid on both ends of the court, but for this contest I'm anticiapting an all out defensive affair. Las Vegas enters having won seven straight, going 6-1 ATS in that span. It's seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four. Connecticut enters having won four of its last five, but it's off an 89-81 loss to New York as a 4.5-point underdog. The Sun have also seen the total go over the number in three of their last four. These teams played in Connecticut on June 8th, and the Sun won 94-77, giving the Aces their only loss of the season. They were a 4.5-point underdog in that one. The total went OVER the number of 168.5 in that one. But that's signifcant to note, as looking back sees the Aces having seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent. Everything points to a much more defensive affair this time around. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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06-30-23 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Twins/Orioles. Both teams had Thursday off. Both teams are in need of a victory here and we think that's going to help in translating into some offensive production on the diamond. Minnesota enters off three straight losses at Atlanta, and all three games went UNDER the number. Note that the Twins have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after three or more straight losses in a row, and in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. They've also seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last seven after getting shutout in their previous game. Baltimore lost two of three here at home to Cincinnati, including an 11-7 setback in the finale. Pablo Lopez is 3-5 with a 4.41 ERA for the Twins, and he's 0-2 with a 4.59 ERA in eight total "night" games this season. He'll be opposed by Dean Kremer, who is 8-3 with a 4.50 ERA. He's been solid. So has Lopez for the most part. This is just a case of these guys being in the wrong place at the wrong time. And that's how I see this one breaking down. Expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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06-30-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Ottawa OVER 42 | 7-26 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the OVER in Edmonton/Ottawa. If you add up these team's win/loss records together and you get an 0-5 record. Someone will finally earn a victory this weekend, and with a spread like this, the oddsmakers definitely feel that we're going to have a highly competitive affair. Instead of trying to choose a SU or ATS winner though, I focus on the total and in my opinion, these two teams are going to combine to go OVER this tiny total. Edmonton has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after three or more SU/ATS losss in a row. The Elks had an interesting bright spot in last weekend's 43-31 loss to Toronto, as QB Jarrett Doege, who entered for an injured Taylor Cornelius, went 9-for-11 for 163 yards and two TDs Ottawa comes in fresh after its bye week and I anticipate that to finally help in translating into some offensive production on the field. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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06-30-23 | Mystics v. Dream +2.5 | Top | 89-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Dream. A great revenge spot here for Atlanta, which fell 109-86 at Washington as a five-point dog in its last outing. ATL has now lost three straight SU/ATS and that's important to note, as the Dream are 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. They're also 8-4 ATS in their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. Washington is 9-5 and it's gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in its last five. The Mystics though are interestingly just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after five or more straight ATS victories in a row. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is ATLANTA. Good luck, NP |
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06-29-23 | Fever v. Mercury +4.5 | Top | 63-85 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* BEST OF BEST on Phoenix. Indiana is coming off consecutive losses at Las Vegas, but it's covered in three straight after previous winning 80-68 at Seattle. I think the Fever have a letdown here in Phoenix with their fourth straight away from friendly confines. The Mercury have lost six, both SU and ATS. Note though that Phoenix is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after five or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. Indiana finally returns home after this to play Chicago in a few days, and I think it gets caught looking ahead. The outright is clearly possible, but the official call is to grab the points and the MERCURY. Good luck, NP |
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06-29-23 | Marlins v. Red Sox -107 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Red Sox. After dropping four in a row, including the first two in this interleague series, I like the Red Sox to dig deep and deliver here at home in the finale. Note that Boston is still 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Red Sox are also 8-4 in their last 12 after three or more straight losses in a row. Miami has won four in a row, but with a National League matchup at the Braves starting tomorrow, an imminent letdown is imminent in my opinion. Jesus Luzardo is 6-5 with a 3.77 ERA for the Marlins, while Brayan Bello is 5-4 with a 3.27 ERA for the Red Sox. Bello gets the slight nod on the bump for the home field advantage, and when taking into account the other situational and trend based factors listed above, the value here is for sure on the revenge-minded home side. The play is BOSTON. Good luck, NP |
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06-29-23 | Padres v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Padres/Pirates. These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this afternoon. The Padres are just 17-21 on the road after losing the first two games of this series, including a 7-1 beatdown yesterday. Note though that SD has still seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. I really like both of these starting pitchers, and I expect them to battle deep, Joe Musgrove is 6-2 with a 3.88 ERA for San Diego, while Luis Ortiz is 2-3 with a 3.74 ERA for the Pirates. Everything points to a classic "duel" here in Pittsburgh this afternoon. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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06-28-23 | Yankees v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
10* OVER Yanks/A's (AL TOW) The A's have been terrible this season, so they're an automatic fade for many people this year. They're off the rare 2-1 win here last night in the series opener, but despite these teams struggling at times to plate runs of late, I still think this Over/Under line is way too low. The Yankees have seen the total go UNDER the number in four straight after last night's loss. Note though that they've seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. as an opponent. They are going with Domingo German and he's an unremarkable 4-5 with a 5.10 ERA *his ERA raises to 5.91 on the road.)Â And for the Atheltics, they hand the ball to JP Sears, who has pitched a lot better than what his win/loss record would indicate as he's 1-5, but with a 4.10 ERA. Sears hasn't been terrible, he's actually been decent, but this is just a case of him being in the wrong place at the wrong time here. I just think there are going to be some explosive innings in this one, and when it gets to the end the total will EASILY eclipse this lower number. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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06-28-23 | White Sox v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SLUG-FET on the OVER White Sox/Angels. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end tonight in a classic "slug-fest."Â Chicago has seen the total go UNDER in three straight after dropping the first two games of this series. Note though that the ChiSox have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. LA has also seen the total go UNDER in three straight, and the Angels have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Both starters have been above average, but this is just a case of Lucas Giolito (5-5, 3.41 ERA) and Jamie Barria (2-2, 2.14), being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" today. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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06-28-23 | Sparks v. Sky | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SIDE SPECIAL on the Sky. After six striaght SU losses, and three straight ATS losses in a row, I expect the Sky to dig deep here and finally deliver at home in the opener of this two-game series here in Chicago. Note that the Sky are in fact 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more straight ATS losses in a row. LA is off two straight SU/ATS victories, but it struggles on the road. Look for Chicago to dig deep here as it finally gets off the schneid and back into the winner's circle. Good luck, NP |
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06-27-23 | Rays v. Diamondbacks -122 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MISMATCH on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Two really good teams, and two really good starting pitchers. But Tampa is just 20-17 on the road, while Arizona is 23-18 at home. I think that the home field advantage will turn out to be the difference-maker in the opener of this interleague series. Taj Bradley is 5-3 with a 3.86 ERA for the Rays, hwile Zac Gallen is 9-2 with a 2.84 ERA for the D-Backs. At this price, and here at home, Gallen and ARIZONA are the correct calls in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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06-27-23 | Reds v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 106 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Reds/Orioles. These teams have been playing to some higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Baltimore has won three straight after yesterday's 10-3 win. It's also seen the total go OVER in six of its last seven. NOte that Cincinnati has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent. Andrew Abbott is 3-0 with a 1.14 ERA and 0.97 WHIP for the Reds, while Tyler Wells is 6-3 with a 3.22 ERA for the Orioles. Expect a battle from these two into the latter innings, which will help in keeping this total UNDER the number once it's all said and done. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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06-27-23 | Liberty v. Sun UNDER 166.5 | Top | 89-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* WNBA TOW on the UNDER NY/Connecticut. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect more of a defensive affair here on Tuesday night. New York has won three straight. It's seen the total go over in two straight, incluiding in its 89-88 OT victory at home over Washington last time out. The Liberty are the No. 2 team in the East, and the Sun are the No. 1. Connecticut has won four straight. It's seen the total go OVER in its last two, including in its 96-72 win over Chicago two nights ago. Expect a playoff like atmosphere here though, and in this tightly contested contest, everything points to this total staying well UNDER the posted number once it's all said and done. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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06-26-23 | Twins v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* INTERLEAGUE TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Twins/Braves. Both teams have been involved in higher-scoring affairs of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Minnesota just took two of three at Detroit over the weekend, including yetserday's 6-3 higher-scoring victory. Atlanta took two of three from the Reds over the weekend, and all three games went OVER the number. Note though that the Braves have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. We have two really good starters going head-to-head here, and everything points to a classic "duel" in our estimation: Sonny Gray is 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.30 WHIP for the Twins, while Spencer Strider is 8-2 with a 3.93 ERA for the Braves. Everything points to this total staying well UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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06-25-23 | Toronto v. Edmonton Elks OVER 43.5 | Top | 43-31 | Win | 100 | 35 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Argos/Eskimos. Here is a great "situational" play. I'm primarily a situational handicapper, with a strong lean to contrarianism. That said, with both teams having already played to several lower-scoring games to open the season, I'm finally expecting some offensive fireworks here. Toronto hammered Hamilton 32-14 in its first game of the season with a new face under center. Chad Kelly finished a respectable 14 of 23 for 213 yards, zero TD's and no turnovers. Kelly though had three rushing TD's and 28 rushing yards overall. AJ Oullette finished with 60 rushing yards. Edmonton is 0-2 SU/ATS. Both games have fallen well UNDER the number, including in last week's 22-0 loss at BC (note that the Elks have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after getting shutout in their previous start.) Taylor Cornelius had his second straight pedestrian game for Edmonton, finishing 13 of 22 for 98 yards, no TD's and no INT's. Cornelius and RB Kevin Brown are going to have open up the offense here though to get off the schneid. I say this is the week the Elks finally put some points on the board and overall I believe because of their low-scoring ways to open the season, this Week 3 total is a few points lower than it normally would/should be. This number is low, the play is the OVER.  Good luck, NP |
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06-25-23 | Royals v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Royals/Rays. Both teams playing to several higher-scoring games. KC has now seen it go OVER in four straight after yesterday's 9-4 victory. Tampa's now seen the total go OVER in six straight (but note that that the Rays have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five in trying to avenge an upset home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.) Daniel Lynch is 1-3 with a 4.45 ERA for the Royals, while Tyler Glasnow is 2-1 with a 4.97 ERA for the Rays. I'm expecting them to battle deep. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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06-25-23 | Mystics v. Liberty OVER 161.5 | 88-89 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Washington/NY. The Mystics are No. 3 in the East, while the Liberty are No. 2. I'm expecting an up-tempo pace here, which will ultimately help in driving this total OVER the posted number. Washignton has seen the total go UNDER in nine straight, but that fact has only helped in pushing this O/U line this evening a few points lower than it normally would/should be. New York is coming off a commanding 110-80 win at ATL and there's no reason not to think that it can't keep that offensive momentum rolling here, especially with a date at No. 1 Connecticut up next. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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06-24-23 | CF Montreal v. Charlotte FC -112 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILER on Charlotte FC to win in regulation. This is a great situational play, as I expect Montreal to take a step back here off its upset home win last week. Charlotte FC has lost three straight in MLS action, but note that it's 3-1 in its last four after three or more straight losses in a row. (This is the abridged version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest.) Good luck, NP |
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06-24-23 | Saskatchewan v. Calgary OVER 45.5 | 29-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Riders/Stamps. Two teams in need of a win here to get over .500. Each is 1-1. Both of Calgary's games have gone UNDER the number, while Saskatchewan is 1-1 O/U so far. Each team has looked better as the season has worn on, and I'm expecting that progression to continue on the offensive side of the ball this afternoon. (This is the abridged version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest.) Good luck, NP |
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06-24-23 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 9 | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Mets/Phillies. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here this afternoon. New York has been trading high-scoring games, for lower-scoring UNDERS over its last four games. Off a 5-1 loss to open things up here yesterday, look for this pattern to continue. The Phillies though have now seen the total go UNDER in eight straight, and that fact has only helped in driving this afternoon's total a couple points lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion. Max Scherzer is 6-4 with a 4.04 ERA for the Mets, while Cristopher Sanchez is 0-0 with a 3.24 ERA for the Phillies. He's 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in three career games vs. the Mets. The Phillies have now won 14 of their last 18 and they're once again back in playoff contention, spurred mostly by a prolific offense. The Mets have dropped 14 of their last 18. He's dominated the Phillies in the past, but this is just a case of the veteran being in the wrong place, at the wrong time this afternoon. The overall situation, combined with the above O/U ATS stats makes the OVER the correct call in this one. Good luck, NP |
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06-23-23 | Astros +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Astros RUNLINE. Two rookies going head-to-head here and two teams that are hungry for a victory. JP France is 2-2 with a 3.42 ERA and more "battle-tested" than his counterpart. Emmet Sheehan is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA after allowing one hit over six innings vs. the Giants last week in his MLB debut. The bullpen then blew it for the rookie. Regardless, regression does seem imminent here for Sheehan in this difficult second start and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is HOUSTON on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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06-23-23 | Montreal v. Hamilton OVER 43.5 | Top | 38-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Als/Ti-Cats. The Ti-Cats are desperate for a win here. They're 0-2 SU/ATS, with one game going over (42-31 loss at Winnipeg), and one game going under (32-14 loss at Toronto last week.) Now back home, I'm expecting a wide-open shootout like in Week 1. Montreal is off a low-scoring 19-12 home win over Ottawa in its first game of the season last week, but with the home side pushing the pace like I anticipate, I expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. (This is the abridged version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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06-23-23 | Brewers v. Guardians -142 | 7-1 | Loss | -142 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Guardians. Both teams have underperformed. Both really need a win. Both starters have been above average to this point. Wade Miley is 4-2 with a 3.28 ERA for the Brewers, while Shane Bieber is 5-4 with a 3.51 ERA for the Guardians. Home field advantage here is the difference-maker for us, as it benefits Bieber greatly. The Guardians have now won four straight and I expect this string of success to continue here for at least one more night. (This is the abridged version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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06-22-23 | Fever v. Storm UNDER 164.5 | 80-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL DOMINATION on the UNDER Indiana/Seattle. Indiana is just 4-7. After two straight wins the Fever fell 100-94 to Atlanta last time out. The Fever have seen the total go OVER in three of their last four, including two straight, but they'll look to slow things down here in the Pacific Northwest. Note as well that Indiana has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 off a SU home loss in which it allowed 100 or more points in. Seattle has been trading wins and losses over its last five games. It's just 3-8 and looking to rebound off an 85-79 home loss to Connecticut as an 8-point dog. The total snuck OVER the number of 160 in that one, but tonight's O/U line is now a few points higher than that, and it's now a little TOO high in my estimation. Both teams really need a win here, and I expect that to translate into a more intense defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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06-22-23 | BC v. Winnipeg UNDER 49 | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 31 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* NORTHERN LIGHTS TOTAL on the UNDER Lions/Bombers. These teams are similar in some ways, and different in others. They're both 2-0 SU and ATS, but Winnipeg has seen both of its first two games go OVER the number, while BC has seen the first two games go UNDER. BC's new QB Vernon Adams Jr. has looked good early on with 600 passing yards and 46 rushing yards. He's compliemented by RB Taquan Mizzell, who is averaging 5.8 YPC. Is the Lions defense as good as it appears? So far BC has allowed only 15 points over two games. Or is that more due to the level of competition? Clearly the Elks are terrible, but the Calgary win was impressive in Week 1. I just expect BC to try and control the tempo of this one whenever on offense, so as to counter the Bombers' strong offense. Winnipeg QB Zach Collaros has 647 passing yards, but there's no question that this will be the best defense he's faced yet after crushing both Hamilton and Saskatchewan. This is the highest total so far this season, and in my opinion it's a little TOO high. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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06-22-23 | Mariners v. Yankees -113 | 10-2 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Yankees. Bryan Woo is 0-1 with a 7.30 ERA for the Mariners. The rookie is actually really good, and he's coming off his best performance of the year by striking out nine on Friday and allowing two runs over 5 2/3's innings vs. the White Sox. But, I still think that at this price, Domingo German and the home side are the correct call. German is 4-4 with a 4.30 ERA and despite coming off a terrible outing, he'll be feeling confident here facing Seattle, as he's 3-0 with a 4.22 ERA in four career appearances vs. it. Seattle will once again be without the services of lead off man JP Crawford, and that really does affect this Seattle line-up. The value play of the week is on NEW YORK on Thursday night. Good luck, NP |
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06-21-23 | Real Salt Lake v. St. Louis City -118 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -118 | 60 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* MLS GOW on St. Louis CITY SC. The bottom line here is that this line absolutely should be a lot larger in my opinion. I'm not afraid to lay chalk, and this line could easily be closer to -200 in my opinion. The bottom line here is that St. Louis owns the best offensive record in the West, and Real Salt Lake boasts the worst overall defensive record. Off two losses and a draw over its last three games, I like the conference leader to return to form at home here in this favorable matchup. Lay the price, the play is ST. LOUIS FC. Good luck, NP |
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06-21-23 | Red Sox v. Twins -125 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Twins. Minnesota comes in as the hungrier team here. The Twins have now lost three straight, including the first two of this four games series. But now with their ace on the hill, I expect the home side to draw the line in the sand and deliver. Note that the Twins are 7-3 in their last ten after three or more straight losses in a row. They're also still 8-4 in their last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. After six straight victories, I say the Red Sox have a letdown here. The advantage in starting pitching also goes to Minnesota as mentioned above. Boston goes with Garrett Whitlock, who is a respectable 4-2 with a 4.38 ERA. Minnesota counters with Sonny Gray, who is 4-1 with a 2.37 ERA. The overall situation, combined with what I deem to be a very reasonable price considering the overwhelming situational and trends based factors working in favor of it here, does indeed make MINNESOTA the savvy call here in this matchup on Wednesday night. Good luck, NP |
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06-20-23 | Lynx v. Sparks OVER 160 | Top | 67-61 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST on the OVER Lynx/Sparks. This one sets up well to be a higher-scoring affair in my opinion. Each side has been playing to several lower-scoring games, and that fact has helped in driving this particular total a few points lower than it normally would/should be. LA has lost two in a row and its seen the total go UNDER in three straight (which is significant for us to take note of, as the Sparks have seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.) Minnesota is only averaging 77.2 PPG, but it's conceding 84.3. That's bad news facing the Sparks, who average 80.5 PPG, while allowing 79.6. In what I anticipate will be a faster-paced affair here though, I expect this total to soar OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch. Good luck, NP |
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06-20-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -112 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHER MISMATCH on the Brewers. Both teams came into this series hot, but the D-Backs laid the hammer down in their decisive 9-1 victory. They're now 3-1 in their last four. The loss snapped a three-game win streak for the Brewers, who previous to that had lost six straight. It's all hands on deck here for Milwaukee which will look to avoid another losing streak and make an immediate return to the winner's circle. Colin Reah is 3-4 with a 4.71 ERA for the Brewers. He also has a respectable 1.26 WHIP. I'm giving him the big nod over his counterpart Ryne Nelson, who is 3-4 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Milwaukee is 3-1 in its last four in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite. Good value here on the hungry BREWERS. Good luck, NP |
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06-20-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Rays | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the Orioles RUNLINE. Two really hot teams, and two really decent starting pitchers. Honestly, it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these teams to win this game tonight. That said, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Yes, Tampa is 31-7 at home, but Baltimore is 22-14 on the road. Tyler Glasnow is 2-0 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.29 WHIP for the home side, while Kyle Bradish is 2-3 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.27 WHIP for the visitors. Evenly matched all around here, making BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option the savvy move in this one. Good luck, NP |
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06-19-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -117 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Brewers. After losing three of four to Philadelphia, the D-Backs bounced back by taking two of three from Cleveland over the weekend. They dropped yesterday's contest 12-3 though and I think, despite their "ace" on the hill, that they'll have a difficult time here as well in this difficult road venue. The Brewers have been playing a lot better of late and come in with a ton of momentum after taking all three from Pittsburgh here over the weekend. Merrill Kelly is 8-3 with a 3.04 ERA for Arizona, while Corbin Burnes is 5-4 with a 3.44 ERA for the Brewers. Burnes is 2-0 with a 1.90 ERA in four career starts vs. Arizona, while Kelly is 2-2 with a 3.32 ERA in seven career starts vs. Milwaukee. I'm giving Burnes the advantage here at home, and that'll help in pushing the scales in favor of the home side, making this a really fair price in my opinion. The play is MILWAUKEE. Good luck, NP |
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06-18-23 | Sun v. Sparks UNDER 157.5 | 83-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL TOTAL on the UNDER Connecticut/LA. After playing to four straight OVERS, I'm expecting a more defensive affair here finally for the Sun. Connecticut is coming off a home and home set with Atlanta, losing the second game by a score of 92-88 in OT in the second game. The Sun though have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last ten off an upset home loss as a favorite. LA has been splitting wins and losses over its last five games. Off B2B lower-scoring outcomes, I'm expecting this trend to continue here for the home side. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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06-18-23 | Hamilton -133 v. Toronto | 14-32 | Loss | -133 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ULTIMATE BLOWOUT on the Ti-Cats MONEYLINE. The defending Grey Cup champs finally get their season going and they open as 2-point underdogs at home. Hamilton went toe-to-toe with the best team in the league on the road in last week's 42-31 loss at Winnipeg. With a game under their belts, and with their offense already firing on all cylinders, I say that the Ti-Cats take a big step forward defensively here in Week 2, vs. a Toronto team given the fourth best odds to repeat this season. Overall a great value play here by bypassing the spread all together, and just taking the high-scoring TI-CATS on the moneyline. Good luck, NP |
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06-18-23 | Rays v. Padres -136 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Padres. I really like the Rays, and think they're a dangerous club that can essentially win "on any given Sunday." I also really like Yonny Chirinos. That said, I think this one definitely favors the Padres. San Diego looks to build off yesterday's win and it catches the Rays in a good spot here, as I expect the visitors to get caught "looking ahead" to a day off, before five straight at home, starting with the now floundering Orioles, followed by the pathetic Royals. Musgrove is the correct call at home here, for a Padres team desperate to get on a win streak. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value."Â The play is SAN DIEGO. Good luck, NP |
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06-17-23 | Orlando City SC v. New England -115 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOWOUT on New England Revolution. Home field advantage is going to prove to be big here for the Revolution at Gillette Stadium. Orlando is simply overmatched here, sitting in seventh in the MLS. Orlando City is coming off a 2-0 win over Colorado, but I think an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent here. The Revs on the other hand are in fourth place and they're coming off a 3-1 win over Inter Miami. New England is currently unbeaten in its first eight matches at home in MLS action, and I don't see that streak ending here. This is a series that the Revolution have dominated at home, and at this price, I'm expecting that streak to continue. Lay the price on NEW ENGLAND in regulation. Good luck, NP |
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06-17-23 | Edmonton Elks +7 v. BC | Top | 0-22 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK on the Elks. BC looked "ok" in its 25-15 road win at Calgary last weekend. With back-to-back road games at Winnipeg and Toronto after this, I expect the home side to get caught "looking past" its lowly opponent today. Edmonton has now lost five straight SU dating to last year, and that's in fact significant to note, as the visiting organization is in fact a near-perfect 5-1 ATS in its last six after five or more SU losses in a row. Taylor Cornelius does have an explosive weapon in Eugene Lewis, who had 148 yards last week. Cornelius finished with 202 yards, one TD and two picks. Vernon Adams Jr. had 300 yards passing and two TD's vs. the Stamps last week. But I think these teams are more evenly matched than what this spread is suggesting. I think this one'll be a defensive affair, one that's decided in the trenches and with field position. I'm grabbing the points, the play is EDMONTON. Good luck, NP |
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06-17-23 | Reds v. Astros -120 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* IL GOM on the Astros. I think Houston offers great value to bounce back and avenge yesterday's 2-1 loss as a -170 favorite to the Reds in yesterday's series opener. Note that Houston is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Reds have won six straight now, but all good things have to come to an end. I say Cinncinnait finally suffers a letdown here. These starters are pretty evenly matched, as Hunter Greene is 1-4 with a 4.01 ERA for the REds, while Brandon Bielak is 3-3 with a 4.01 ERA for the Astros. Bielak though definitely gets the small nod here because of the "home field" advantage, and combined with the above listed "revenge" angle, as I said off the top, I think we're getting great value overall on HOUSTON to bounce back here tonight at home. Good luck, NP |
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06-16-23 | Lynx v. Sparks -5 | Top | 77-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
10* Sparks (BOOKIEKILLER) They say "revenge" is a dish best served cold. That is a bit confusing, but in this case, "revenge" is the main reason why I like LA in this spot. The last time the 2-7 Lynx played, they beat the Sparks 91-86 at home on June 11th. They were one-point dogs in that one. LA would then go to hammer Dallas on the road 79-61 as a 5.5-point dog on June 14th. I think the Sparks keep the foot on the gas here at home, and note that they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Lay the points, the play is LA. Good luck, NP |
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06-16-23 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan UNDER 47.5 | 45-27 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL SPECIAL on the UNDER Winnipeg/Saskatchewan. Both teams enter 1-0. Each got the job done in different ways last week. Winnipeg pulled away and held on for a 42-31 win and cover as a 4.5-point favorite at home vs. Hamilton. Saskatchewan was on the road in Edmonton as a 2.5-point underdog, but it was the Roughriders that would leave town with the straight-up 17-13 upset victory. Winnipeg's offense looked great at home, but now here on the road in this difficult venue, I'm expecting the home side to dictate the pace, and clearly the last thing it'll want to do is to get into a "shootout" here with the high-flying Bombers. Note as well that the Roughriders have seen the total go UNDER the number in six of their last eight at home underdog in the +6 to +9.5 points range. This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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06-16-23 | Orioles v. Cubs +107 | 3-10 | Win | 107 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* WINNER on the Cubs. This is a starting pitching matchup that favors the home side, and I think that'll be enough to tip the scales in favor of the Cubs this afternoon. Baltimore has won six of seven, but I think it'll stumble here vs. this hungry Chicago side that needs to make up some ground. The Cubs enter with momentum now of their own after winning five of their last six, including just sweeping the Pirates. As mentioned, this is a starting pitching matchup which definitely favors Chicago, as Cole Irvin is 1-2 with a 7.85 ERA and 1.75 WHIP for the Orioles, while Kyle Hendricks is 1-2 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.07 WHIP for the Cubs. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." The play is CHICAGO. Good luck, NP |
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06-15-23 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Angels/Rangers. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Rangers had seen the total go OVER in five straight before last night's "push" in their 6-3 win over the Angels. That snapped a three-game losing streak. Note though that Texas has still seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. We have two super solid starters going head-to-head, and they're definitley the "main" reason that I like the UNDER in this one, as LA turns to ace Shohei Ohtani (5-2, 3.32 ERA), while the home side counters with Nathan Eovaldi (9-2, 2.49.) I think these two battle deep, and that'll ultimatley help in driving this total UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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06-15-23 | Calgary v. Ottawa +5.5 | Top | 26-15 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK on the Redblacks. If you watched Nick Arbuckle last week, then you saw him and Ottawa fall 19-12 to Montreal as a two-point underdog. Arbuckle was terrible, finishing with 175 yards, no TD's and three interceptions. There's only one way to go for Arbuckle and this Ottawa offense in Week 2. The good thing though is that they face a reeling Calgary defense which looked inept against what is projected to be a very mediocre BC offense, falling 25-15. Arbuckle faces his former team here and I think he'll settle down. His defense actually looked pretty good in defeat last week and I think Ottawa's unit is in line for another big day facing the Stampeders Jake Maier, who had a pedestrian day vs. the Leos, finishing with 166 yards, 1 touchdown and one interception. I smell an upset, but am still grabbing this healthy amout of points. The play is OTTAWA. Good luck, NP |
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06-15-23 | Dream v. Sun UNDER 163.5 | 92-88 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SPECIAL TOTAL on the UNDER Atlanta/Connecticut. The Sun are 8-2, and they're coming off a high-scoring 89-77 win over Atlanta in their last game. They've now seen the total go OVER the number in three straight, which is important for us to take note of here, as Connecticut has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last eight after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Atlanta played New York after the Connecticut game, winning 86-79. Note though that the Dream have seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss against an opponent. The overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U ATS stats makes the UNDER the correct call in this one. Good luck, NP |
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06-14-23 | Yankees -106 v. Mets | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
10* Yankees (BOOKIEKILLER) It's always an exciting matchup whenever these two teams get together, but even more so when you have two big name starting pitchers going head to head. That said, considering the form he enters in, I just think the value here lies with Gerritt Cole and the visiting New York Yankees to build on their subway series-opening win last night. Cole does come into this one having an awesome year so far as he's 7-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Justin Verlander was a huge off-season signing for the Mets, but he started the season on the injured list after surgery. He enters at 2-3 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Verlander is fantastic, but this is all about "RECENT FORM" for me. Cole is also 3-0 with a 2.98 ERA on the road, while Verlander is 1-1 with a 4.01 ERA at home. Great value on a red hot pitcher, the play is NEW YORK. Good luck, NP |
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06-14-23 | Brewers v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL on the UNDER Brewers/Twins. After yesterday's 7-5 series opening win here by Minnesota, I'm expecting more of a "duel" here on Wednesday afternoon. Minnesota has now seen the total go OVER the number in three straight, but note that the Twins have seen the total go UNDER in seven of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Milwaukee has seen the total go OVER in two straight, but it's also now lost five in a row, which works in our favor here actually, as the Brewers have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five after five or more straight losses in a row. Two battle-tested starters going head-to-head here and I like them to battle each other deep into this one. Colin Rea is 3-3 with a 4.47 ERA for the Brewers, while Bailey Ober is 3-3 with a 2.61 ERA for the Twins. The overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U ATS stats does indeed make the UNDER the correct call in this one. Good luck, NP |
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06-13-23 | Storm v. Mercury OVER 162.5 | Top | 83-69 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOW on the OVER Seattle/Phoenix. Seattle is just 1-6 and in desperate need of a win. To do that, it'll have to push the pace and match the Mercury's intensity. Seattle has seen the total go UNDER the number in three straight, but that's significant for us to take note of here, as the Storm have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Phoenix needs a win here as well at 2-5. The Mercury did snap a three-game slide with an 85-82 road win at Indiana as 3-point underdogs and I expect them to carry that offensive momentum over here. Look for little defense to be played, and for what I anticipate will be a faster-paced affair overall to push this total OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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06-13-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 15-3 | Loss | -134 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL GOY on the DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE. What do you base your picks on? How do you make your selections? Do you follow one single handicapping methodology, or are you flexible with your approach? I base my picks on many different things. Often I base picks on "value." On my "perceived value" of a situation. This is one of those cases. I simply feel that the "value" is much too good to turn down here by grabbing the red hot home side on the "runline option" at this price. The D-Backs should in fact be favored here in my opinion. The fact that they're an underdog at home, and then getting an extra 1.5 runs of insurance at this price is the cherry on top. Zach Wheeler is 4-4 with a 3.91 ERA for the Phillies, while Zach Davies is 1-1 with a 4.68 ERA for the D-Backs. They're a "wash" here. But for all the reasons listed above, the play is indeed on ARIZONA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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06-13-23 | Panthers v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -116 | 38 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Panthers/Knights. I had a play on the UNDER in Game 4, and I'm expecting another tight and lower-scoring affair here as well in Game 5. What's surprised me the most about Las Vegas is how well its shut down this potent Florida offense. Down 3-1, I just don't see Florida having much fight left in it. Las Vegas won't need to run up the score here, instead it'll control this one throughout and dominate in the defensive end as well. Maybe Florida pulls off an upset, but to do that, it'll need to lock things down defensively as well. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets OVER 208 | Top | 89-94 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOW on the OVER Heat/Nuggets. Miami is/was the "surprise" team of the NBA Playoffs, without question. Can the Heat dig deep here on pull of another titanic upset? Maybe, they've already done that several times. Miami though has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge two or more SU/ATS losses vs. an opponent. Nikola Jokic is about to prove to the World that he's the best player on the planet right now. I don't see Denver playing a suffocating defensive game, instead I look for the Nuggets to be the aggressors here. This number is now too low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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06-12-23 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL TOM on the UNDER Angels/Rangers. I'm expecting a lower-scoring "duel" here on Monday night in the opener of this AL series. The Angels have won six of their last seven. They took two of three at home to Seattle over the weekend, and the two victories both went OVER the number, including yesterday's 9-4 victory. Note though that LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four off a home win as an underdog. Texas is 41-23, including 21-9 at home, but it enters having lost three of its last four. It's seen the total go OVER the number in three straight, which is definitely significant to note, as the Rangers have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Two decent starters here. The Angels go with Tyler Anderson, who is 3-1 with a 5.62 ERA and 38:28 K:W ratio. The home side counters with ace Dane Dunning, who is 5-1 with a 2.52 ERA and 33-13 strikeout to walk ratio. The overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U ATS stats makes the UNDER the correct call in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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06-11-23 | Saskatchewan v. Edmonton Elks UNDER 45.5 | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Saskatchewan/Edmonton. Both teams missed the playoffs last year. There's going to be continued growing pains for each offense. Saskatchewan has a new QB in Trevor Harris, who has a ton of experience, but who will still need time to acclimate himself. Lots of starters returning for Saskatchewan on the defensive end, as the Roughriders missed the playoffs last year for the first time since 2016. Edmonton has won a combined seven games over the last two seasons. There's only one way to for the Elks this season, who start Taylor Cornelius at QB. The Elks did a lot of work on the defense over the off-season, as "getting off the field" more this year will be a priority for the club. I envision an awkward, lower-scoring contest, one that's decided in the trenches and by field position. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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06-11-23 | LA Galaxy v. St. Louis City +100 | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SIDE SPECIAL on St. Louis. It's worst vs. first here in the standings and I'm not expecting any titanic upsets here or anything. Good value on St. Louis, which is 9-1-5. LA enters 3-3-9. St. Louis had to play a rescheduled game on Wednesday and fell 2-0 to Dallas. It'll be eager to take out its frustrations here. LA is off a rare 3-2 win over Real Salt Lake, and an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent. St. Louis has destroyed its competition at home for the most part though, scoring three or more goals six times already. Lay the short price for ST. LOUIS to win this in regulation. Good luck, NP |
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06-11-23 | Astros v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL TOTAL on the UNDER Astros/Guardians. Both teams have been playing to some higher-scoring games, but we expect those high-scoring trends to end tonight. After seeing the total go UNDER in three straight, the Astros have now seen the total go OVER in both games here in Cleveland, losing 10-9 in Game 1, and then bouncing back with a 6-4 victory yesterday. Note though that Cleveland has seen the total go UNDER in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Guardians have seen the total go OVER in three straight, which is also significant to note here in our case, as Cleveland has in fact seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. These starting pitchers are as solid as they come here as well. Look for a classic "duel" here between Brandon Bielak of the Astros, who is 3-2 with a 3.35 ERA, and Shane Bieber of the Guardians, who is 4-3 with a 3.57 ERA so far. All signs point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this one. Good luck, NP |
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06-10-23 | Golden Knights +101 v. Panthers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 101 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Knights. Las Vegas could easily have had a 3-0 lead in this series, but the bounce finally went the Panthers way in Game 3 in OT. But Las Vegas has done well in this spot for bettors, going 4-1 in its last five in trying to avenge a road loss as a dog vs. an opponent. Despite the loss, I felt like Las Vegas looked stronger as the game got into the latter moments in Game 3. I like the KNIGHTS to bounce back here for sure. Good luck, NP |
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06-10-23 | DC United v. Atlanta United OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* MLS TOW on the OVER Atlanta/DC. This is an important game here at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. DC is currently in seventh spot, but it managed an impressive 2-1 victry over Inter Miami last week, and I think it carries that momentum over here. Atlanta is coming off a war of attrition vs. LA, drawing 0-0 last week. Atlanta is in fifth spot. That was in fact Atlanta's fourth straight draw, and it marked a run of 18 league games without at least one goal. I look for ATL to bounce back here after last week's lower-scoring affair. The OVER is juiced here, but not nearly enough. The value here in my opinion is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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06-10-23 | Astros v. Guardians -130 | 6-4 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Guardians. Cleveland's offense has come to life of late and I think it'll build off yesterday's series opening 10-9 victory. The Guardians have in fact posted 25 total runs over their last three straight victories. They have the advantage on the mound as well in my opinion, with Triston McKenzie (0-0, 0.00), who returned from injury to go five scoreless last time out. He's 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three career starts vs. Houston. The Astros counter with JP France (1-1, 3.44), who faces this red-hot offense for the first time in his career. All about the VALUE here folks. The play is CLEVELAND. Good luck, NP |
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06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat +3.5 | 108-95 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Heat. Miami responded well in Game 2 after a defeat in Game 1, and that's exactly what we're expecting here as well after the Heat lost both SU and ATS in Game 3. Note that Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. It's also 4-1 ATS in its last five coming off a SU/ATS home loss as a dog. With a chance to even up this series, we're looking for MIAMI to do just that (but grab as many points as you can!)Â Good luck, TIR |
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06-09-23 | Hamilton +5.5 v. Winnipeg | 31-42 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on Hamilton. Outright win? Anything is possible in Week 1 in the CFL. Last year the Ti-Cats finished their 2022 season with a 28-17 loss as 1.5-point dogs at Montreal in the East semi. The Ti-Cats enter the season with a new face under center though, veteran QB Bo Levi Mitchell, who has two Grey Cup MVP's. The Bombers lost as five-point favs 24-23 to the Argos in the Grey Cup. After finishing the season 15-3 last year, we expect a drop-off across the baord for the Bombers. In a contest that we see being decided late, we're grabbing the points. The play is the TI-CATS. Good luck, TIR |
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06-09-23 | Twins +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Twins (RUNLINE) These two teams are suddenly going in opposite directions. But we feel that the desperate Twins are worth the price of admission here to secure the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Minnesota has now lost five straight. That's significant to note here though as the Twins are 3-1 in their last four after five or more straight losses in a row. Toronto has won three straight, but we expect it to have its hands full here today. The slight nod in the starting pitching matchup goes to the visiting side as well, as Sonny Gray is 4-1 with a 2.15 ERA and 1.22 WHIP for the Twins, while Yusei Kikuchi is an almost as good 6-2 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP for the Jays. We think this one'll be close, so lay the price and take MINNESOTA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, TIR |
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06-08-23 | BC v. Calgary -160 | 25-15 | Loss | -160 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Stampeders (on the MONEYLINE. However, we also like CALGARY on the SPREAD option as well if you don't have access to the ML, or don't want to play the ML.) We look for the Stamps to pull away in the fourth quarter for a comfortable win and cover. The Stamps and Lions are similar, in that they have new faces under center. Calgary has Jake Maier, who has big time help in RB Ka-Deem Carey and 1,000 yard receiver Malik Henry. The Lions go with Vernon Adams under center, along with RB Taquan Mizzell, now in a starters role. Calgary's defense is a little more solidified here though with Cameron Judge still in the mix. Look for CALGARY to take advantage of the "home field."Â Good luck, TIR |
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06-08-23 | Golden Knights v. Panthers UNDER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 59 h 11 m | Show |
8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the UNDER. With the shift in venue, we're expecting a much more defensive affair here finally in Game 3. Note that Florida has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. The Panthers have now seen the total go OVER the number in three straight, which is also significant to note, as FLA has in fact seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. We just can't see Bobrovsky having a third straight "dud" of a performance. The Knights have sure looked great, but they've been susceptible on the road. With Florida risking life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes in a desperate attempt to avoid the 0-3 hole, we expect this total to stay well UNDER the number once the final horn sounds. Good luck, TIR |
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06-08-23 | Twins v. Rays OVER 7.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the OVER Twins/Rays. This is an 'ACTION' play, meaning whoever gets the start here for either side, we believe this total will fly OVER the number. We had a play on the OVER in this series yesterday, and while that came up short in the Rays 2-1 win, we're definitely now finally expecting some offensive fireworks here today. Tampa has now won five straight, and it's seen the total go UNDER in five straight. Note though that Tampa has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Minnesota will be desperate to stop its current four-game slide. It's seen the total go UNDER in five straight as well, but note that the Twins have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Bailey Ober is 3-2 with a 2.33 ERA for the Twins. He's been decent, but we feel he's just in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" today. The Rays will probably call up Yonny Chirinos from Triple A, who is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in two career starts vs. the Twins. Whoever starts, we look for this total to go OVER the posted number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, TIR |
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06-07-23 | Nuggets -135 v. Heat | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 36 h 40 m | Show |
9 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Nuggets moneyline. The value swings from one game to the next. We're going to suggest bypassing the spread here, and instead taking Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets on the moneyline. Denver has responded well in this spot for bettors, going 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. We never expected Miami to get swept. The Heat are resilient and well-coached. But we can now expect Denver to be the team to make the necessary adjustments here heading into Game 3. We feel great about this one, the play is DENVER on the MONEYLINE. Good luck, TIR |
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06-07-23 | Twins v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
10 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the OVER Twins/Rays (AL TOY) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to get broken in a big way here this evening. Minnesota has now seen the total go UNDER the number in four straight after yesterday's 7-0 series opening loss here. Note though that the Twins have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a shutout road loss vs. an opponent. Tampa has won four straight, and it's seen the total go UNDER in seven of its last eight, including in four straight (despite that though, note that the Rays have still seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.) Lots of situational and trend-based reasons pointing to the OVER as the savvy call here for sure. Neither starter has been great. Pablo Lopez is a pedestrian 3-3 with a 4.54 ERA for the Twins, while Cooper Criswell is a poor 1-1 with a 6.11 ERA. Look for these two teams to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER. Good luck, TIR |
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06-06-23 | Sparks v. Storm UNDER 166.5 | Top | 63-66 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
10 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the UNDER Sparks/Storm. We're expecting a very defensive affair here between two teams that have played to several higher-scoring games to open the season. In fact, Seattle has seen all four of its games eclispe the posted number thus far, including in its 92-85 loss at LA on June 3rd. Note though that the Storm have interestingly seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent. LA has seen the total go OVER in four of its five games. These facts though have only helped in driving this particular total here on Tuesday in the Pacific Northwest a couple points higher than it normally would/should be. The overall situation, combined with the above O/U stat makes the UNDER the correct call in our opinion. Good luck, TIR |
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06-06-23 | Red Sox v. Guardians OVER 7.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the OVER Red Sox/Guardians. Both teams come into this series having played to several lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting a higher-scoring offensive affair here in the opener of this one. Boston comes in desperate to snap a three-game slide, losing all three at home to Tampa over the weekend. All three games went UNDER the number. Note though that the Red Sox have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 after three or more straight losses in a row, and in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Cleveland went 2-2 at Minnesota over the weekend and the final three games all went UNDER the number. That's also significant to note here, as the Guardians have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Two good starters, but this is just a case of them being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" this afternoon. James Paxton is a pedestrian 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA for the BoSox, while Shane Bieber is a more respectable 4-3 with a 3.72 ERA. Ultimately, we look for this total to sneak OVER the number in the latter frames. Good luck, TIR |
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