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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-30-23 | Orioles v. Red Sox -115 | 10-9 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Red Sox. It's an important early season divisional matchup. Boston let a lot of bettors down last year, but at this price, I think that Corey Kluber and the home side offer really good value. Kyle Gibson went 10-8 with a poor 5.05 ERA in 31 starts for Philadelphia this year. Gibson is on the downward trajectory of his career, and an Opening Day start on the road will prove to be difficult in my opinion. Kluber is also on the back-end of his career. He finished 10-10 with a respectable 4.34 ERA in 31 starts for the Rays last year. He's 6-4 in 16 career starts vs. the Orioles though. He's also won four of his seven starts at Fenway as a vistor to go along with a 3.53 ERA. I say the Orioles take a step back this season, while the Red Sox are poised for improvement. Those trajectories start here on Opening Day. Lay the price, the play is BOSTON. Good luck, NP |
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03-30-23 | Giants +1.5 v. Yankees | 0-5 | Loss | -133 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RISE AND SHINE WINNER On the Giants on the run-line. Are the Yankees overhyped this year? They took a step forward last season (I guess), but I feel that New York will also be overrated to some extent, no matter what. The Yanks should make the playoffs again. The Giants should make the playoffs again as well. Each team is loaded with talent and it's not too hard to make a convincing argument for either side to win this one. I honestly think that Logan Webb and the Giants could win this one outright. Webb and Gerrit Cole have similar/comparable numbers. But in a contest that I see being decided late, or perhaps in even in extra innings, I believe the value here lies in laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. The play is the GIANTS on the RUN-LINE. Good luck, NP |
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03-29-23 | Pistons v. Thunder -11 | Top | 106-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Thunder. Despite losing 137-134 as a ten-point favorite here at home to Charlotte just last night, I think the Thunder will dig deep and here and deliver in the second game of the back-to-back. OKC is now a 1/2 game back of the Lakers for ninth spot in the West. It's a log-jam at the bottom of the West standings, so it's going to be a fight until the finish with about six different teams. The Thunder though also play with the added incentive of "revenge" here after falling 112-103 at Detroit as two-point favorites at the start of the season. That's significant to note as OKC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Detroit has lost six straight. It covered against the Bucks at home as an 11.5-point underdog in its most recent setback, but I say the Pistons just "go through the motions" here on the road vs. this revenge-minded and motivated home side. The slide stops here for OKC. Look for the Thunder to go up early, and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points, the play is the THUNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-28-23 | Utah Valley +2.5 v. UABÂ | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 37 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* NIT GOW on Utah Valley. Utah Valley has consistently been undervalued throughout the playoffs and that's the case again here in my opinion. The Wolverines average 76.7 PPG, while allowing 67.6. Can't take anything away from the UAB Blazers either, whose only loss in the playoffs came against FAU in the Conf. Champ. game. UAB averages 82.2 PPG, but it concedes 71.0. The Wolverines aggressive trapping style of defene will be the differnece here though in my opinion. I think an outright victor is possible, but in the end let's grab the points. The play is UTAH VALLEY. Good luck, NP |
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03-28-23 | Hornets v. Thunder OVER 229.5 | Top | 137-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Hornets/Thunder. As primarily a situational handicapper at heart, this one falls right into my "wheelhouse."Â Charlotte won't be in the playoffs this year, but it's arguably playing its best basketball of the season right now, having won three of its last four. That includes back-to-back wins over Dallas as a 15.5 and 12.5-point underdog respectively. The Hornets have now seen the total go UNDER the number in five straight, but note that Charlotte has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. OKC is currently in line for the "play in" Tournament, tied with the Lakers, and with Dallas right behind. The Thunder play with revenge here after falling 121-113 to the Hornets in Charlotte back in December. Note that the Thunder have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. This number is a little low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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03-28-23 | Canucks v. Blues -105 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Blues. Both teams in need of a victory here, but I say that this on favors the home side, especially at this price. Vancouver has won three in a row. It's won the first two games of this three-game trip. After this it returns home for five straight home games, with four of those against Pacific division opponents. I say the Canucks get caught "looking ahead." So the revenge-minded home side takes advantage. St. Louis fell to Vancouver here 3-2 in OT in February, and note that the Blues are 6-2 in their last eight in trying to avenge a home loss against an opponent as a favorite. Great value here on the BLUES. Good luck, NP |
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03-27-23 | Devils v. Islanders +110 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 110 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-CONFERENCE GOW on the Islanders. We're coming down the home stretch of the regualar season, with just under two weeks to go. Every game counts, as does momentum at this time of year. The Isles are off back-to-back losses, including a 2-0 shutout here at home to Buffalo as a -173 favorite last time out. Note though that New York is 7-2 in its last nine off a shutout home loss as a favorite. New Jersey broke a two-game slide with a 5-3 win at home over Ottawa last time out, but I think the visiting side will have its hands full here. Great line value for sure, the play is New York! Good luck, NP |
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03-27-23 | Bucks v. Pistons OVER 232.5 | Top | 126-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Bucks/Pistons. Detroit's seen the total go UNDER the number in six straight. But that fact has only helped in driving this particular total a few points lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion. The Bucks annihilated the Pistons 150-130 in regulation in January, and I'm expecting a similar style, run and gun offensive blowout here as well. The Bucks had won four of five before a 129-106 loss at Denver. With two really winnable games here, before a tough home game vs. the Celtics on the 30th (up next is at Indiana), I expect the Bucks too bounce back here and keep the pedal to the metal throughout. This is a great opponent to get back on track against. Expect a faster tempo and a look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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03-26-23 | Grizzlies v. Hawks UNDER 243.5 | Top | 123-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Grizzlies/Hawks. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting that trend to end here. This total is now just a bit TOO high. Memphis is coming off five straight victories, including posting a combined 281 points in back-to-back victories over the Rockets. That includes scoring 150 in its most recent (in regulation!) The Hawks aren't known for their defensive prowess, but note that the Grizz have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in six of their last eight after five or more SU victories in a row. The Hawks have scored a combined 267 points over their last two games, going 1-1. Last time out it was a 143-130 victory over Indiana. They play with revenge here though after a 128-103 loss at Memphis as a 9.5-point underdog back in December, which is important for us to take note of here as the Hawks have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent. This number is now a little bit too high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-26-23 | Miami-FL v. Texas UNDER 149.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER Miami Florida/Texas. Miami Florida is coming off the 89-75 upset win over No. 1 Houston last time out. That's three straight SU/ATS victories in a row. Note though that the Hurricanes have seen the total go UNDER the number in five of their last six after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row. Texas had played to five straight UNDERS in the playoffs before its most recent 83-71 win over Xavier. Suffice to say, I'm expecting another good defensive performance from the Longhorns today. I'm expecting a lot of half and full court pressure throughout, and as such, everthing does point to this total being a few points too high. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-26-23 | Mavs v. Hornets OVER 228 | Top | 104-110 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTRA-EARLY TOTAL on the OVER Mavericks/Hornets. Charlotte will look to play spoiler again here against the floundering Mavericks. The Hornets are off the 117-109 upset here over the Mavs as 15.5-point underdogs on Frida night. Note that the Mavericks though have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last six in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. It's all hands on deck for the Mavericks with just two weeks remaining in the regular season. I'm expecting a much more wide open and offensive affair here in the rematch. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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03-25-23 | Jazz v. Kings UNDER 241 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Jazz/Kings. A great situational play here. Sacramento has seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after its most recent 135-127 win over Phoenix just last night. Suffice it to say, I believe fatigue will now be an issue for the home side here in the second game of the back-to-back. Utah has seen the total go OVER the number in ten straight. That fact though has only helped in driving this particular total a few points higher than it normally would/should be. The Kings play with revenge after a 128-120 loss to Utah as 8-point favorites on March 20th, which is also significant to note here, as Sacramento has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 11 off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-25-23 | Blue Jackets v. Canadiens -135 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Montreal. Both teams are playing out the tail end of a terrible season. Columbus though is primed for a letdown here after back-to-back upset OT victories, including a 5-4 victory at home over the Islanders just last night. The Habs will look to take advantage. Montreal is just 28-38-4-2 this year, but a much more respectable 15-17-1-2 at home. Columbus is only 9-21-5-0 on the road. Fatigue plays a factor for the Blue Jackets, and the Canadiens take advantage. Lay the price, the play is MONTREAL. Good luck, NP |
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03-25-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Kansas State UNDER 144.5 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* ELITE EIGHT TOY on the UNDER FAU/KSU. If this were a regular season game, I'd likely lean to the OVER, but the overall situation points to more of a defensive affair here in my opinion. K-State has seen the total go OVER in three straight now in the Tournament, but note that the Wildcats have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. After their tough 98-93 OT win over MSU last time out, I think the Wildcats will come in fatigued here finally. FAU has seen five of its six postseason games go UNDER the number, including in its most recent 62-55 upet win over Tennessee. It was another impressive defensive performance and I expect the Owls to once again be on top of their game defensively here. This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-24-23 | 76ers v. Warriors -6 | Top | 112-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Warriors. The defending champs will now look to run the table and gain some momentum with just over two weeks left in the regular season. Golden State returns home after back-to-back road win/covers. The Warriors are 29-7 at home this season. They play with the added incentive of revenge here as well aftre falling 118-106 at Philly as a nine-point dog in mid-December. Note though that Golden State is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent. The 76ers won't be rolling over obviously. They're off a 116-91 win at Chicago. But with another tough one at Phoenix tomorrow night, Philly could very easily be caught and planning by looking ahead to that one. This one has "blowout" written all over it in my opinion. Lay the points, the play is GOLDEN STATE. Good luck, NP |
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03-24-23 | Suns v. Kings UNDER 240.5 | Top | 127-135 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Suns/Kings. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Suns have lost five of their last six. They've lost six straight ATS. They've seen the total go OVER in three straight, but that's significant for us to take note of here as Phoenix has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Phoenix plays with revenge after a 128-119 loss as a three-point favorite here at home to Sacramento on March 11th. That's also important to note, as the Suns have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. The Kings are off back-to-back losses as well. They've also seen the total go OVER the number in three straight, but note that Sacramento has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. I'm expecting a much more defensive affair this time around. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-24-23 | Xavier v. Texas OVER 149 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT TOTAL on the OVER Xavier/Texas. Texas has so far rolled through the Big 12 Tournament and the NCAA Tournament having played to five straight UNDERS. The Longhorns are also 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS so far in the postseason. Note though that the Longhorns have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last six after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Xavier has played five postseason games as well and the total has gone 3-2 to the UNDER. The Musketeers though are off a impressive 84-73 win over Pitt last time out and I think they carry that offesive momentum over to this one. This O/U number is a little low in my opinion, as I expect a faster-paced affair that eclipses the total as the game comes down the stretch. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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03-23-23 | Gonzaga v. UCLA UNDER 145.5 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT TOTAL on the UNDER Gonzaga/UCLA. UCLA will be looking to slow this one down vs. the Bulldogs offense. Gonzaga is ranked 75th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Bruins have the second-ranked defense in the country though, limiting teams to just 87.8 points per 100 possessions, while only averaging 74.1 PPG themselves. Expect a more methodical pace, and as a result, the play here is on the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-23-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Tennessee -5.5 | Top | 62-55 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* FIRST HALF BOOKIEKILLER on Tennessee. I think we're getting great value here on the No. 1 defense in the country in the FIRST HALF. The last thing Tennessee can do is give FAU any sort of momentum or confidence, so I'm expecting the Vols to really take control of this contest from the outset. FAU struggled against the 350th ranked defense in Fairleigh Dickinson last time out, and this is a major step up. The Vols assert themselves early here; the play is Tennessee in the FIRST HALF! (If you can't get a FIRST HALF line, then I also still LOVE Tennessee for the entire game as well, so also a play on TENNESSEE for the GAME.) Good luck, NP |
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03-23-23 | Cavs v. Nets +4.5 | Top | 116-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Nets. The Nets have now lost four straight, both SU and ATS. The play with the immediate revenge factor here after falling 115-109 here to the Cavaliers just two nights ago. Note that the Nets are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as an underdog against an opponent. It's not all doom and gloom for the Nets though, as they still occupy the sixth spot, one game up on Miami and 4.5 games up on Atlanta right now. There's only 2.5 weeks left in the regular season as well, so its the final push for everyone. After this the Cavs enjoy two nights off before a home game vs. the lowly Rockets. I think they get caught looking ahead. While I do think an outright is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The play is BROOKLYN. Good luck, NP |
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03-23-23 | Wild -148 v. Flyers | 4-5 | Loss | -148 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Wild. I just think the Wild will make the most of this favorable matchup and not look past this golden opportunity. Minnesota is off back-to-back wins and returns home after this to face Chicago and Seattle. A possible five-game win streak could be in the cards here for the Wild as long as they don't lose focus. And I don't think they will here. Philadelphia is playing out the tail end of a terrible season. It's off a rare 6-3 win over Florida and I expect an immediate return to mediocrity. This line could/should in fact be a lot higher in my opinion. The play is MINNESOTA. Good luck, NP |
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03-23-23 | Michigan State -124 v. Kansas State | 93-98 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SPECIAL on Michigan State (MONEYLINE). I'm taking Tom Izzo and the Spartans on the moneyline option. These teams are evenly matched. Michigan State has the better offense, while K-State has the better defense. Michigan State has faced better defenses though this season. The Spartans are shooting the three-ball well this year, but they were just 2 of 16 in their win over the Golden Eagles. I don't see that type of futility happening twice in a row though. Look for Michigan State's superior overall play on both ends of the court to be the difference. The play is MICHIGAN STATE on the MONEYLINE. Good luck, NP |
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03-22-23 | 76ers v. Bulls OVER 221.5 | Top | 116-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER 76ers/Bulls. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. That includes in their last game vs. each other just two nights ago in Philadelphia, where Chicago managed the 109-105 OT upset as an 8.5-point underdog. Despite going to OT, the total still stayed well below the posted number of 226.5 in that one. And now we have an over-correction here in Chicago in my opinion with a much lower number. Note that Phily has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Chicago has now won three straight. The Bulls are starting to play with confidence once again. I think the rematch here in the Windy City finally sets up as more of a wide-open and high-scoring OVER. Good luck, NP |
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03-22-23 | Nuggets v. Wizards +7 | Top | 118-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Wizards. I think this one sets up well for the Wizards. They play with revenge here after falling 141-128 at Denver as an 11-point underdog back in December. Washington has responded well in the revenge role, going 4-1 ATS in its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent. Washington has lost three straight, both SU and ATS, and that's also significant to note here, as the Wizards are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. Denver is coming off a 108-102 win and cover at Brooklyn, but it hasn't been playing well overall of late, going just 2-5 in its last seven. It's traded wins and losses over this four-game road trip, and another letdown is imminent here in my opinion. And the combine the letdown with the "look-ahead," as the Nuggets will have two nights off before a home matchup vs. Milwaukee. It's a TRAP for the visitors and a "do or die" of sorts for the home side. I'm not calling for the outright victory, but I expect Washington to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is the WIZARDS. Good luck, NP |
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03-22-23 | Eastern Kentucky v. Charlotte -4.5 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER on Charlotte. Charlotte is coming off a relatively simple 63-56 win over Radford yesterday, also going on to cover the five-point spread. The 49ers have been roughly a five-point fav in each game so far throughout this Tournament, and they've covered quite easily in each with a dominant defensive effort. It's been anything but easy for EKU though, which has played to three straight OT victories to advance, including a double OT win over Southern Utah last night. The last two games the Colonels have been underdogs. Fatigue is an issue for both sides obviously, but much more so for EKU. I just can't see this team having enough energy to overcome this aggressive 49ers defense. I smell a blowout here, so the play is indeed on CHARLOTTE. Good luck, NP |
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03-21-23 | Celtics v. Kings UNDER 238.5 | Top | 132-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL EXPRESS on the UNDER Celtics/Kings. No need to overthink this one in my opinion. I'm expecting a less intense offensive game than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. This is the end of a tough six-game Western swing for the Celtics and I think they're on fumes right now, especially after falling 118-117 at Utah in their most recent. And for the Kings, they saw their three-game win streak come to and end last night at Utah. Fatigue will play a major factor in the outcome of this contest for both teams. These teams played to a lower-scoring UNDER in Boston's win at home at the start of the season, and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-21-23 | Red Wings v. Blues -130 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Blues. The Wings are getting WAY too much respect here in my opinion. They're off a 5-2 home loss to Florida just last night. They've lost three straight. The Blues enter having won two straight. This is the opener of a home-and-home set between the clubs, so we can expect St. Louis to build off its latest 3-0 win over Winnipeg. All things considered, I think this is unbelievable line value here. Lay the short price, the play is the BLUES. Good luck NP |
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03-21-23 | Eastern Kentucky v. Southern Utah -3 | Top | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Southern Utah. Southern Utah got past rice to advance in the CBI, while Eastenr Kentucky needed OT to upset Indiana State 89-88 as a 6.5-point underdog. Southern Utah lost to Grand Canyon in the final of the WAC. Overall they shot 47 percent from the field and 35 percent from range. The Colonels upset Indiana State, but I expect a letdown here. Their weakness comes at the free throw line, where they rank 333rd in the country at 65.9 percent shooting. EKU has had to play two straight OT games. I say its out of gas here. Southern Utah shoots the three-ball well, and the Colonels strugge to defend it. Lay the points, the play is SOUTHERN UTAH. Good luck, NP |
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03-20-23 | Kings v. Jazz UNDER 238 | Top | 120-128 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Kings/Jazz. I like the way this one sets up to be a lower-scoring defensive battle. Utah has won three of its last four. It's seen the total go OVER the number in seven straight. But that fact has just helped in driving this particular total here today a few points higher than it normally would/should be in my opinion. When these teams played on January 3rd here, Sacramento managed the 117-115 upset win as a 2.5-point dog and the total stayed well "under" the number of 242.5. I'm expecting an even tigher, more defensive affair this time around though. Note that the Jazz have also seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Sacramento enters off three straight SU/ATS victories in a row (all on the road), but note that the Kings have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last six after playing to three or more straight SU/ATS victories in a row. Two hot teams collide, but I expect this competitive atmosphere to produce a defensive battle. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-19-23 | Clippers v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 117-102 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* WEST-CONF GOY on the Blazers. I like the Blazers to dig deep here and snap a five-game slide. Note that Portland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after playing to five or more straight losses in a row. Portland plays with the added incentive of revenge here as well after falling 118-112 to the Clippers here at home as four-point favorites back on November 29th. And that's definitely significant for us to take note of here, as the Blazers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. The Clippers' four-game win streak came to end last night in a 113-108 home loss to the lowly Magic as 6.5-point favorites, and I'm expecting a small letdown here in the second game of the back-to-back, especially with an upcoming four-game favorable home schedule starting on Tuesday with two straight against the Thunder. While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The play is PORTLAND. Good luck, NP |
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03-19-23 | St. Mary's +4.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 55-70 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
10* Saint Mary's (TOP DOG SHOCKER) Saint Mary's is battle-tested. So is UConn. The Gaels' defense is ranked 12th, with an adjusted efficiency margin of +21.94. The Gaels limit teams to just 91.3 points per 100 possessions. They are averaging 71.1 PPG as well, so I expect them to keep pace with a Huskies side averaging 78.7 PPG. This will be one of the Huskies most difficult defenses they've faced all year and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has it's hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is SAINT MARY'S. Good luck, NP |
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03-19-23 | Eastern Washington v. Oklahoma State -11 | Top | 60-71 | Push | 0 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Oklahoma State. Eastern Washington upset Washington State 81-74 as a nine-point underdog to advance to the second round of the NIT, but I am expecting a letdown here as the competition increases. Beating your weak instate rival is one thing, but taking out Oklahoma State is going to be quite another. l The Cowboys beat Oklahoma in the conference tournament, before bowing out to Texas. Then Oklahoma State opened this tourney with a 69-64 win over a potentially dangerous Youngstown State side. Great defensive play and efficient offensive play will be just too much for the Eagles to overcome this time around. This is a great matchup for OKLAHOMA STATE and I expect it to make the most of it, keeping the foot on the gas until the final horn. Good luck, NP |
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03-18-23 | Celtics v. Jazz +4.5 | Top | 117-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP SITUATIONAL PLAY on the Jazz. Boston is now 3-1 on its current road trip after a 126-112 win at Portland last night. I do think that fatigue will be an issue here now in the second game of the back-to-back. And with an upcoming game at the high-flying Kings up next, it's also a natural "look-ahead" spot. Letdown + look-ahead = trap game. The Jazz have gone just 2-2 SU in their last four, but they're 4-0 ATS. They return home from a six game Eastern swing and have had four whole nights off to prepare for this one. The road ahead isn't going to get any easier for Utah either, so I expect it to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points, the play is the JAZZ. Good luck, NP |
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03-18-23 | Arkansas +3.5 v. Kansas | Top | 72-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* SHCKER on Arkansas. The Razorbacks have won six of eight neutral site games this season and I think they're going to, at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Kansas also had a 6-2 record in neutral-site games this season. The Razorbacks were impressive defensively in their win over Illinois, holding it to just 27.6 percent from the floor. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is ARKANSAS. Good luck, NP |
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03-18-23 | Michigan +2 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 65-66 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Michigan. The bottom line here is that Michigan is ranked better in both shooting efficiency and effective field goal percentage. The Wolverines' defense is also ranked higher in most metrics. Michigan is also ranked in the top 10 for defensive rebounds per game. The eye test here for me says that Michigan is the better overall team. The play is the WOLVERINES. Good luck, NP |
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03-17-23 | Arizona State v. TCU -5.5 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on TCU. ASU managed a 98-73 win over Nevada in the FIRST FOUR, but I'm not reading too much into that final outcome. I think we can all agree that that Mountain West Conference is just terrible. TCU is a huge step up in competition. It beat KSU 80-67 in the Conference Tournament, before then falling to Texas 66-60. The Horned Frogs played in the much tougher conference and I expect them to completely slow down ASU's attack here today. Look for the FROGS to grind out the solid win and cover in this one. Good luck, NP |
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03-17-23 | Warriors v. Hawks UNDER 249 | Top | 119-127 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Warriors/Hawks. Two teams that play little defense and like to run other teams off the court collide here, but I still think this number is too high. Golden State has seen the total go OVER the number in five straight, and that's significant for us to note, as the Warriors have seen the total go UNDER the number in five of their last seven after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row. Golden State is 36-34 overall, but just 7-27 on the road. Offensive consistency has been one of the main reasons. The Hawks are coming off two straight home losses here. Both games went OVER the number. They play with revenge after a 143-141 OT loss at Golden State on January 2nd, and note that Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU road loss against an opponent. I expect the rematch to be a sloppy, and lower-scoring UNDER this time around. Good luck, NP |
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03-17-23 | Kennesaw State v. Xavier -12.5 | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SPECIAL on Xavier. These teams are similar, in that they like to shoot the three-ball; Kennesaw State is ranked 34th in the country with a 37.1 percentage, while Xavier is No. 3, with a 39.5 percentage. The Owls are just overmatched here. They've averaged 71.3 PPG over their last four games, but their competition has been weak. The Musketeers have averaged 76 PPG over their last four in the much tougher Big East conference. Look for the size and experience of the Musketeers to be just too much for the Owls to handle down the stretch. Lay the points, the play is XAVIER. Good luck, NP |
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03-16-23 | Magic +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Magic. Both teams come in on losing streaks and could really use a win here. I often talk about the revenge factor, as its often a great situational factor that can work in a team's and a bettors favor. But at times, the whole revenge angle just doesn't work. And that's the case here in this one, as Orlando did manage a 114-97 win over the Suns, but that was all the way back on November 1st. Phoenix was rolling with KD in the line-up, and then the Super Star went down and now the Suns are struggling with consistency. They have a tough three-game Western road trip upcoming, and I believe they get caught looking ahead and planning for that. I expect Orlando to keep this one close enough to, at the very least, earn the comfortable cover. The play is the MAGIC. Good luck, NP |
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03-16-23 | Northern Kentucky +18.5 v. Houston | Top | 52-63 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* RND. 1 DOG on Northern Kentucky. Yes, Houston has a great defenese. But so does UNK. The Cougars could be without their leading scorer here in Marcus Sasser. If he does play, will he be at 100% health? UNK closed out the regular season and conference tournament well and I think it keeps that momentum rolling here. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is NORTHERN KENTUCKY. Good luck, NP |
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03-16-23 | Princeton v. Arizona -14.5 | 59-55 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SPECIAL on Arizona. Princeton is completely overmatched here. This will be the best defense it's seen all season. Princeton faced only one NCAA Tourney team this year and it lost to Iona in December. Arizona faced seven different tourney teams throughout the season, including more than once, and the Wildcats went 10-2 SU vs. them. It's a mismatch. I say that Arizona keeps its foot on the gas until the final horn. Lay the points, the play is ARIZONA. Good luck, NP |
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03-16-23 | College of Charleston v. San Diego State OVER 142 | Top | 57-63 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* FIRST ROUND TOY on the OVER Charleston/SDSU. Both teams enter the NCAA Tournament having played to several "unders," but I expect those trends to end here this afternoon. Charleston is 31-3, including 11-2 on the road, while SDSU finished 27-6 overall. Charleston has five players averaging in double figures. SDSU won both the Mountain West Conference regular and Conference Tourney. Ultimately though I think that Charleston's pace will help in driving this total well OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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03-16-23 | West Virginia v. Maryland OVER 136.5 | 65-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL WINNER on the OVER WVU/Maryland. I'm expecting a much more wide-open offensive affair than what this O/U line is suggesting. WVU is 19-14, but it's going for its fourth win in its last five games. Maryland started the season 8-0, and finished 21-12. WVU was decent defensively at home, but it struggled on the road. That'll be the case for both teams here in my opinion. With a spread like this, the oddsmakers believe these teams are evenly matched. Expect that to result in a highly-competitive, but ultimately higher-scoring game than what this O/U line is suggesting. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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03-15-23 | Utah Valley +5.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 83-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Utah Valley. I think Utah Valley sneaks in under the radar here. It finished 25-8, but was knocked out of the semifinals of the WAC Tournament to Southern Utah by a score of 89-88, squandering a 23-point second-half lead. The Wolverines will be eager to take out their frustrations here today with a concerted effort obviously. New Mexico finished 22-11 and was bounced from the MW semi's by Utah State 91-76. New Mexico has dropped nine of its last 13 games, while Utah Valley is in much better form. I think the outright is possible, but the official call will be to grab the points with UTAH VALLEY. Good luck, NP |
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03-15-23 | Kings v. Bulls +2 | Top | 117-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* EXPRESS on the Bulls. Chicago is coming off two straight road wins, beating Denver and Houston. I think the Bulls keep the momentum rolling here in this revenge-scenario. Chicago lost 110-101 to Sacramento on December 4th, and note that the Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent. The Kings just had their three-game win skein come to an end in a 133-124 setback at Milwaukee on Tuesday and with a game at Brooklyn tomorrow, I believe they're primed for another letdown here in Chicago. Grab the points, the play is the BULLS. Good luck, NP |
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03-15-23 | Texas Southern v. Fairleigh Dickinson OVER 147 | Top | 61-84 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* FIRST FOUR TOY on the OVER Fairleigh Dickinson/Texas Southern. With a chance to advance, I'm expecting a wide-open "shoot-out" between these teams. This total opened at 146.5 and it's already gone up a point. I'm going to follow this movement as I still don't think it's nearly high enough. Both teams move at a good pace, with Texas Southern 72nd in the nation in that category, and FDU rated 110th. Fairleigh Dickinson averages 78.3 PPG, and it concedes 76. The Knights need to push the pace to win. The Tigers average 69.7 PPG, while conceding 72.7. This is going to be a wide-open offensive affair in my opinion, as I expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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03-14-23 | Mississippi State v. Pittsburgh UNDER 133 | Top | 59-60 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Pittsburgh/Mississippi State. I'm expecting a very defensive affair here. With a spread like this, obviously the oddsmakers think these teams are evenly matched and they pretty much are. Pittsburgh averages 76.1 PPG, while allowing 70.5, while Mississippi State averages only 65.9 PPG, while conceding just 61. The Bulldogs will be looking to control the pace of this one obviously (managed just 49 points in a loss to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Tourney quarter-finals.) I'm expecting full and half-court pressure throughout. This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-14-23 | Bradley +3.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 62-81 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
10* Bradley (BLOWOUT) Bradley won the Missouri Valley Conference regular season crown, but lost in the Conference tournament and missed its change for a ticket to the Big Dance. With a chance for this veteran team to take out its frustrations here, I think the Badgers are going to be in trouble. Wisconsin finished 11th in the Big Ten. The Badgers lost in the first round of the Tournament to Ohio State, led by some terrible shooting. The Braves enter with a net scoring margin of +8, which is 31st in the nation. The Badgers end this game with a net scoring margin of +1.1 points, which is 151st. I think BRADLEY has every opportunity to win this game outright, but my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Good luck, NP |
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03-14-23 | Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 221.5 | Top | 120-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL TOTAL on the UNDER Cavs/Hornets. Expecting a defensive battle here. Cleveland is just 15-20 on the road, while Charlotte is only 11-22 at home. The Cavs have played to two straight high-scoring road games, including a 114-108 victory here in Charlotte just two nights ago. Note that the Hornets have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU home loss vs. an opponent. And with a much more important home game tomorrow night vs. Philadelphia, this is also a classic "look-ahead" spot for the Cavs. Charlotte's porous defense catches a break here today facing the Cavs for a second straight time and with their focus on the upcoming schedule. I say the rematch here on Tuesday stays well UNDER the posted number. Good luck, NP |
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03-13-23 | Pacers v. Pistons UNDER 228 | Top | 97-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE TOW on the UNDER Pacers/Pistons. I'm expecting a defensive affair here between two teams in need of a victory. Indiana is just 12-21 on the road, but it enters off a 121-115 road win here in Detroit on Saturday night. While that total flew OVER the number, note that the Pistons have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss against an opponent. Indiana has now seen the total go OVER in four straight, but all signs point to a much more defensive battle here in the immediate rematch in my opinion. Detroit's lost 11 in a row. The Pistons only average 111.8 PPG, ranked 28th, and I have a hard time seeing them reaching that average this evening. This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-12-23 | Rangers v. Penguins -117 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOOD-BATH on the Penguins. I think the Pens offer great value here at home. New York has won two straight on the roadl including a 4-0 victory at Buffalo just last night. It's last two road games have gone to extra time, so I say fatigue is a major factor here. The Pens are coming off a 5-1 win here over the Flyers yesterday, and barely broke a sweat. With two games in New York next week on back-to-back nights, I look for the home side to make the most of this opportunity. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." The play is the PENGUINS. Good luck, NP |
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03-12-23 | Nets v. Nuggets -8 | Top | 122-120 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Nuggets. Denver is coming off back-to-back losses, first falling 117-96 at home to the Bulls, and then l28-120 at San Antonio as a 12.5-point favorite. Now Denver is just a single-digit favorite and I expect it to take out its frustrations and run up the score here on the Nets. Note that Denver is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more ATS losses in a row. Brooklyn is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in its last five. It's coming off a 124-123 OT win at Minnesota as a 4.5-point dog. Note though that the Nets are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after five or more ATS victories in a row. It's a letdown spot here finally for overachieving Brooklyn, as Denver keeps the foot on the gas from start to finsih. Lay the points, the play is the NUGGETS. Good luck, NP |
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03-12-23 | Princeton +3.5 v. Yale | Top | 74-65 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER on Princeton. I'm going to grab the points and expect a battle until the final horn here. Princeton finished 20-8 this year, while Yale was 21-7. The Tigers beat Penn yesterday by a score of 77-70 as two-point favorites. The main reason I like Princeton here is that it does play with revenge after a setback in these team's most recent matchup, falling 93-83 in OT at home as a two-point favorite in mid-February. Note that the Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss vs. an opponent. Yale didn't have much trouble with Cornell yestreday (80-60), but the competition goes up dramatically here today vs. the Tigers. These teams won't give an inch, and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is PRINCETON. Good luck, NP |
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03-11-23 | CS-Fullerton v. UC-Santa Barbara UNDER 131 | Top | 62-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG WEST TOY on the UNDER CSU Fullerton/UC Santa Barbara. Both teams ended the regular season playing to several high-scoring games. The last game they played against each other went OVER the number as well. They're also coming off second-round high-scoring victories to advance here. All of these higher-scoring outcomes has helped in driving tonight's total a few points higher than it normally would/should be in my opinion. The Titans beat the Gauchos 74-60 on February 20th, and the total sailed well OVER the number of 128.5 in that one. Note though that Santa Barbara has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference loss against an opponent. Expect fatigue to finally play a major factor in the final combied score here as well. This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-11-23 | Bucks v. Warriors | Top | 116-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Warriors. The Warriors are 34-33 this year. They've lost three straight, both SU and ATS, but I expect them to finally bounce back here at home (where they're still 27-7) in this revenge spot. Note that Golden State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. The Warriors are also 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent (fell 128-111 in Milwaukee in mid-December.) Milwaukee has won three straight. I think it'll have its hands full here today though with the determined Champs looking to shake out of a poor stretch. With upcoming games at the Kings and Suns, I say the Bucks also get caught looking ahead. The play is GOLDEN STATE. Good luck, NP |
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03-11-23 | Tulane v. Memphis UNDER 161.5 | 54-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SPECIAL TOTAL on the UNDER Tulane/Memphis. Tulane has now seen the total go OVER the number in three straight after its successful 82-76 win over Wichita State yesterday. Note though that the Green Wave have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. Memphis saw its total go OVER the number yesterday as well in its 81-76 advancing victory over UCF. It's intereting to note here though that Memphis plays with revenge after falling 90-89 to Tulane in OT as a seven-point home favorite oin Feruary 4th, as the Tigers have seen the total go UNDER the number in six of their last eight in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponet. Expect a very competitive, but ultimatley lower-scoring outcome in this one. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-10-23 | Oregon v. UCLA UNDER 134.5 | Top | 56-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC 12 TOURNEY TOY on the UNDER Oregon/UCLA. Both teams ended the season playing to a couple of high-scoring games, and each advanced to this point after a high-scoring games in their Pac 12 Tourney openers. The last time they played against each other in the regular season though the total went UNDER the number, and I'm expecting another hard-fought and ulimtatley lower-scoring battle here as well. Oregon has now seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after a 75-70 win over Washington State yesterday. The Ducks lost to UCLA by a score of 70-63 in February, and the total stayed UNDER the number of 133.5 in that one. Note though that the Ducks have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss against an opponent. UCLA has now seen the total go OVER the number in three straight after its 80-69 thrashing of Colorado. Note though that the Bruins have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. Second round of the Tourney, expect this one to indeed be a very tight and competitive, but lower-scoring war. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-10-23 | Hawks v. Wizards UNDER 238 | Top | 114-107 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* SOUTHEAST TOM on the UNDER Hawks/Wizards. I skipped the Thursday card, because I didn't see any value on the card at all. I looked at every game, both sides and totals, and didn't see anything that fell into any of my systems. This particular total on Friday does though, a great situational and common sense play. Atlanta just beat Washington 122-120 as a three-point favorite in the Nation's capitals two nights ago, the total going OVER the posted number of 237 in that one. Note that Washington has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU divisional road loss against an opponent. These two teams are neck and neck in the Southeast right now and I'm expecting a much tigter, and ulimtately lower-scoring outocme in the rematch here on Friday night. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-10-23 | East Carolina v. Houston -22.5 | 46-60 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an ATS TOMAHAWK on Houston. I think ECU's run in the Tournament ends here. I don't believe Houston will have any mercy on the Pirates, as I expect them to keep the pedal to the metal until the final horn. ECU beat USF 73-58 as a 3.5-point dog yesterday, but I believe that fatigue will be a major factor here in the second game of the B2B sceanrio. Previous to that the Pirates backed their way into the Tournament by losing three of their final four. ECU covered against Houston earlier in the season, but still lost by 18. The Cougars come in well-rested, and note that they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine when playing with five or more days of rest between games. Look for HOUSTON to send an early message here to the rest of the conference with a brutal beatdown of the Pirates. Good luck, NP |
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03-09-23 | UNLV +5.5 v. Boise State | Top | 76-87 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* MW TOURNEY GOY on UNLV. UNLV is 19-12 overall. It's comingin off a 78-70 OT win and cover over Air Force yesterday and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas until the final horn here as well. Note that the Rebels play with REVENGE today, as they lost 73-69 to BSU in Mid-February. Note that UNLV is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU conference road loss against an opponent. Boise State finished 23-8. It went just 1-2 in its final three regulat season games. The Broncos have had five days off between games, and I think that "rest" leads to "rust" in this instance. Grab the points though, the play is UNLV. Good luck, NP |
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03-09-23 | Ohio State v. Iowa UNDER 154.5 | 73-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOWOUT TOTAL on the UNDER Ohio State/Iowa. Ohio State advanced to the second round of the Big Ten Tournament with a 65-57 win over Wisconsin yesterday. The total went UNDER the number of 130.5. Iowa had a first round bye. It averages 80.6 PPG, and it beat Ohio State 92-75 at home in mid-February, the total sailing well OVER the posted number of 153.5 in that one. l But note that the Buckeyes have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss against an opponent. Ohio State will be looking to slow this one down whenever possible. I believe the rematch will be a tighter, slower and more defensive affair overall. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-09-23 | Miami-OH +13.5 v. Toledo | Top | 75-91 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC TOURNEY GOY on Miami Ohio. Miami Ohio finished just 12-19, but it was playing some of its best basketball down the stretch, winning four of its last five. The RedHawks play with revenge here after falling 89-71 to Toledo as a 16-point dog in mid-February. Note though that Miami Ohio is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent. Toledo enters with a 25-6 record, No. 1 in the conference. It's won 15 straight and covered in five straight. Note though that the Rockets are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after five or more SU/ATS wins in a row. I think the Rockets are slightly overvalued here. Look for the RedHawks to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The play is MIAMI OHIO. Good luck, NP |
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03-08-23 | Texas Southern +2 v. Alcorn State | Top | 66-62 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* SWAC TOURNEY GOY on Texas Southern. I like the way this one sets up for Texas Southern. The Tigers stumbled down the stretch of the regular season going 0-3 SU/ATS to close out the year. That's important to note for us betting on the today though, as note that Texas Southern is a wallet-expanding 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. The Tigers also play with revenge after falling 89-81 to Alcorn State in these team's most recent matchup in late February. Once again though, that favors us as bettors here today as note that Texas Southern is 4-1 ATS in its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference loss against an opponent. Alcorn State won and covered in its final three games, but note that the Braves are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row. Grab the points, the play is TEXAS SOUTHERN. Good luck, NP |
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03-08-23 | Virginia Tech +3 v. NC State | 77-97 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SPECIAL on Virginia Tech. I like VT to build off yesterday's 67-64 win over Notre Dame. The Hokies didn't cover, but they got the win. The play with revenge here as well after falling 73-69 to NC State as 5.5-point favs in January. Note that VT is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. I think the Wolfpack get caught off-guard here. The outright is obviously a very real possibility, but let's grab the points. The play is VIRGINIA TECH. Good luck, NP |
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03-08-23 | Thunder v. Suns UNDER 234 | Top | 101-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Thunder/Suns. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here tonight finally. The Thunder have seen the total go OVER the number in seven straight. They come in off three straight SU vicrtories, including an impressive 137-128 home win over the Warriors as 4.5-point dogs just last night. Can anyone say "letdown" spot here? The Suns have won three straight high-scoring games as well. Note that Phoenix has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row though. I think the stage is set for a much more defensive battle than what this line is suggesting. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-07-23 | Hornets +10.5 v. Knicks | Top | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP TRAP GAME OF THE SEASON on the Hornets. The Knicks have won and covered in nine straight. That includes victories over the best of the best in the East, including the Celtics twice. That includes in their most recent action, a come-from-behind 131-129 OT win at Boston two nights ago. Can anyone say "letdown" spot? Would anyone blame the Knicks for having a small mental letdown after their recent success and now facing the lowly Hornets at home before a lengthy West Coast trip? Letdown + lookahead = TRAP GAME. The lowly Hornets will look to take advantage. Charlotte plays with revenge here as well after a 121-102 home loss to the Knicks in December. Note that the Hornets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. Charlotte has lost three straight, both SU and ATS, and that's also important to note here, as the Hornets are in fact 4-1 ATS in their last five after playing to three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. No outright, but much closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is CHARLOTTE. Good luck, NP |
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03-07-23 | McNeese State v. Texas A&M Corpus Christi UNDER 147.5 | Top | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* SOUTHLAND TOURNEY TOY on the UNDER McNeese State/Texas A&M CC. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games, but I expect this one to be a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. McNeese State has now seen the total go OVER in five straight after starting the tournament with back-to-back upset victories. Note that the Cowboys have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row. They play with revenge after a 77-54 loss to Texas A&M CC as 5.5-point undredog at home back in February. Suffice it to say I'm expecting a similar final combined score here today as well. The Islanders enjoyed a double-bye to reach this point and I think they'll double down on the defensive side here as they look to take advantage of his now fatigued Cowboys team. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-07-23 | Louisville v. Boston College UNDER 135.5 | 62-80 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SPECIAL on the UNDER Louisville/BC. The ACC Tournament gets underway and a couple of bottom feeders go head-to-head here. Louisville finished just 4-27, while BC finished 15-16. Louisville was 0-11 on the road this year. It lost 75-65 to BC as a 9.5-point underdog in January. That's significant to note here though, as the Cardinals have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss against a conference opponent. Expect the rematch to be a much tighter, and lower-scoring defensvie affair. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-06-23 | San Francisco v. Gonzaga -14 | 73-84 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BAIL-OUT on Gonzaga. After two straight SU/ATS victories to open up the West Coast Conference Tournament, I expect a letdown here finally from the Dons. They needed OT to get by Santa Clara last time out and I believe fatigue will be a major issue here. Gonzaga is always a heavy favorite, but not quite "heavy" enough here in my opinion. It comes into the tournament on fire with seven straight victories. The Bulldogs won and covered at home over San Fran by a score of 99-81 and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Lay the points, the play is GONZAGA. Good luck, NP |
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03-06-23 | Capitals v. Kings -155 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOOD-BATH on the Kings. Unlike the Avalanche last night, I think the Kings will go up early and keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Washington is 2-1 on its current trip. It's won two straight though out here on the West Coast, and with two nights off after this before a home game vs. East-leading New Jersey, I say this sets up as a classic "trap" for the visitors. The Kings play with revenge here as well after falling 4-3 in the Nation's capital on October 22nd. Lay the price with confidence, the play is LA! Good luck, NP |
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03-06-23 | Idaho State +5.5 v. Montana | Top | 74-83 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG SKY TOURNEY GOY on Idaho State. While I do think an outright victory is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. This one ticks off all the boxes for a great situational play here on the College hardwood, as this is the opener of the Big Sky Conference Tournament, which sees Idaho State and Montana facing off on a neutral court. The Bengals plays with revenge here after falling 69-61 at home to Montana as 3.5-point underdogs in February. Note that Idaho State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss against a conference opponent. The stage is set for a tight battle until the final moments, so I'm grabbing the points. The play is IDAHO STATE. Good luck, NP |
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03-05-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Avalanche -160 | 3-2 | Loss | -160 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SPECIAL on the Avs. Seattle's sure been great this year. Especially on the road where it's 20-9-1-2 so far after three straight victories away from friendly confines. But with a five game home stretch upcoming after this one, I believe the Kraken lose focus here in this difficult road venue. The Avs beat Seattle 2-1 in a shootout back in January. Colorado though has lost back-to-back games after a six-game win streak. After falling 7-3 in Dallas last night, I look for Colorado to bounce back here at home. Lay the price, the play is COLORADO. Good luck, NP |
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03-05-23 | Bucks v. Wizards UNDER 229 | Top | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Bucks/Wizards. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Milwaukee has seen the total go OVER in two straight, including in its 133-130 loss at home to Philadelphia last night as a five-point favorite. Fatigue will be an issue for sure in the second game of the back-to-back. Washington plays with revenge after falling 123-113 to the Bucks on January 3rd. The Wizards are off a 116-109 OT loss to Toronto here just last night. Fatigue will be an issue in the Nation's capital there is no question. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-05-23 | William & Mary v. Hofstra OVER 140 | 46-94 | Push | 0 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL SPECIAL on the OVER W&M/Hofstra. This is the second round of the CAA Conference Tournament. Hofstra received a bye in the first roud after finishing 23-8. It comes into the Tournament having seen lthe total go UNDER in five straight games, and that's significant to note here, as the Pride have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERs in a row. Not surprisingly, the Tribe play with revenge here after falling 75-62 to Hofstra as seven-point dogs on January 7th. Note that William and Mary have seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five though in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conferece home loss vs. an opponent. The Tribe easily moved past Elon 73-51 yesterday afternoon and I expect another good offensive showing here as well in this revenge spot. This one has all the makings of a shootout IMO, so the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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03-04-23 | Wolves +5.5 v. Kings | Top | 138-134 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Wolves. At 37-25, the Kings are amazingly the top team in the Pacific Division. They're coming in off five straight SU wins, going 4-1 ATS in that span. The one ATS loss occurred just last night in their 128-127 home win over the Clippers. The Wolves are 33-32 and second in the Northwest. They've broken a three-game slide with back-to-back victories, most recently a 110-102 win over the Lakers last night. Minnesota is the more motivated team here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario though, as it plays with revenge after falling 118-111 in OT at home to the Kings as one-point dogs back on January 30th. That however works in our favor here, as the Wolves are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is MINNESOTA. Good luck, NP |
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03-04-23 | Butler v. Xavier OVER 142 | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL SPECIAL on the OVER Butler/Xavier. It's the final game of the regular season for each team and I'm expecting a wide-open SHOOT-OUT. Butler has seen the total go UNDER in nine straight. It fell 69-67 to Xavier at home in February, and while that total did also go UNDER the number, I look for this anticapted faster-paced affair to produce plenty of offensive fireworks. As note that Butler has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a conference home loss vs. an opponent. Xavier has won two straight on the road. Both totals went OVER the number. At 22-8, the Musketeers look to close out the regular season and enter the conference tourney on a roll. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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03-04-23 | Florida International v. Rice UNDER 155.5 | Top | 90-83 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* CONFERENCE USA TOM on the UNDER FIU/Rice. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect more of a defensive affair here in their final regular-season game of the year. FIU is just 13-17, including only 2-10 on the road. It's coming in off five straight losses. It'll be still mentally hung up on the last one, falling 77-76 in OT to Louisiana Tech. The Panthers have seen the total go OVER in three straight, but that's significant for us to take note of, as FIU has in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. FIU plays with revenge as well after an 85-78 home loss to Rice as a three-point favorite on February 11th, which is also important to take note of, as the Panthers have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Look for the rematch to be a tight, lower-scoring UNDER once the final buzzer sounds. Good luck, NP |
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03-03-23 | Suns v. Bulls +5.5 | Top | 125-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF GOY on the Bulls. I love the way this one sets up for the Bulls. Phoenix is 34-29, but just 13-19 on the road. With a game at Dallas up next, which would see KD facing off against Kyrie, I say the visitors get caught "looking ahead." The Bulls are just 29-34 overall, but they're 18-13 at home. They've gone 3-1 since the All-Star break, arguably playing their best basketball of the season right now. Chicago plays with revenge as well after a 132-113 loss at Phoenix back on November 30th, and that's significant to note in this case, as the Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent. In a game that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is the BULLS. Good luck, NP |
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03-03-23 | Gardner-Webb -4 v. USC Upstate | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG SOUTH TOURNEY GOY on Gardner Webb. Gardner Webb finished the regular season at 15-15, while South Carolina Upsate was 15-14. The Bulldogs finished with four straight SU/ATS losses in a row, which is significant to note here for us, as Gardner Webb is still 8-3 ATS in its last 11 after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. Also note, the Bulldogs lost 75-69 to South Carolina Upstate as a 2.5-point favorite in these team's final regular season game of the year. That's also working in our favor here though, as Gardner Webb is 6-2 ATS in its last eight in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Look for the Bulldogs to exact a little revenge here in this neutral site contest. The play is GARDNER WEBB. Good luck, NP |
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03-03-23 | Monmouth +1.5 v. Hampton | 100-64 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* WINNER Monmouth. This is the first round of the CAA Championship and it's wo that favors 6-25 Monmouth in my opinion. Note that Hampton is just 7-23. Both teams have been brutal on both ends of the court this season. Monmouth plays with the added incentive of revenge here though after falling 86-81 to Hampton on the road as a two-point dog just about two weeks ago. That was a very competitive game, but the Pirates don't have the home-floor advantage, as this is a neutral site game. Grab the points, the play is MONMOUTH. Good luck, NP |
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03-02-23 | Evansville +17.5 v. Indiana State | Top | 58-97 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* MISSOURI VALLEY GOY on Evansville. Evansville is just 5-26, but after five straight SU losses, note tha it's 7-2 ATS in its last nine after five or more SU losses in a row. The Purple Aces also play with "revenge" here after falling 83-65 to Indiana State at home on February 1st as a l4-point underdog. The Sycamores are 20-11. They had a string of nine straight ATS victories in a row going for bettors until their final game of the regular season, falling 66-62 to Missouri State as eight-point favorites. I think they're overvalued here now as well in this neutral site affair. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but everything points to this game being a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, the play is EVANSVILLE. Good luck, NP |
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03-01-23 | Hurricanes v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the OVER Hurricanes/Knights. We have two really good teams here, but each has been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, and I'm expecting those trends to end this evening. Carolina has seen the total go UNDER in five straight. That's significant for us to note though, as the Hurricanes have seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five after playing to five more straight UNDERS in a row. They're also off a humbling 3-2 loss to Anaheim as a -500 favorite. Look for the Hurricanes to come out flying here tonight. And look for the Knights to follow suit! Vegas is hungry snap a two-game lostin streak, first falling 3-2 in a shootout to Dallas, before a 3-0 loss at Colorado most recently. Note though that the Knights have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after a shutout road loss in their previous outing. Look for this faster-paced affair to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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03-01-23 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 215 | Top | 119-96 | Push | 0 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER 76ers/Heat. This is an interesting game, because it's the second game of a home and home set between these teams. I actually had a play on the Heat on Monday night, and they didn't even need the 6.5-points because they wound up winning by a score of 101-99. I loved the way that one set up for Miami, which had lost four straight, both straight up and against the spread heading into that one. The 76ers on the other hand had just had their five-game win streak snapped in a 110-107 setback to their arch nemesis Boston, and I just felt like they'd still mentally hung up on that loss as Philadelphia really does use Boston as a measuring stick as for as its performance is concerned in the East. It was a GREAT situational play there on Miami. In fact it was my EASTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR, that's how much I liked it And so here we are now in the immediate revenge game for the 76ers in Miami, but instead of focussing on the side I'm going to target the total. The last game stayed WAY under the number, but I'm expecting more of a wide-open offensive affair here in Miami. As note that Philadelphia has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last ten in trying to avenge a straight up and against the spread loss against an opponent in which it was held to 99 or fewer points in. Expect a faster-paced, and ultimatley higher-scoring shootout; the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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03-01-23 | Long Island +16.5 v. Merrimack | Top | 76-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* NORTHEASTERN TOURNEY GOY on LIU. LIU is a terrible team it's just 3-25, including only 1-13 on the road. Merrimack is a poor team at 15-16, including 7-6 at home.  The Sharks play with revenge here after falling 80-59 as 12.5-point underdogs on February 25th at home, which is significant to note here, as LIU is a near-perfect 5-1 ATS in its last six in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss against an opponent. This is in fact a double revenge (both SU and ATS) for LIU. It's difficult to beat a team three times in one year, and even more difficult to beat it both SU and ATS three times. I believe that Merrimack will earn another elusive victory today, but I do also firmly believe that this spread is a few points larger that in really should be. The value now swings to the undervalued underdog. The play is LIU. Good luck, NP |
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02-28-23 | Bruins v. Flames +111 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DESTROYER on the Flames. Boston won 3-2 in Edmonton last night. I had the Oilers. It was a tight game. Part of my strategy in betting Edmonton last night, was that if the Oilers did lose, that I'd be going against the Bruins here tonight in Calgary as well. The "Alberta back-to-back" is difficult for any team, at any point of the season. Clearly, the Bruins are the "cream of the crop" in the NHL this year, but I finally do expect a bit of a letdown here in the second game of the back-to-back, and the final game of an already great road trip. The Flames play with revenge after falling 3-1 at Boston at the start of the season. Note the Calgary is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to one or less goals in. Calgary returns home after a 1-2 road trip. Look for the much more motivated and revenge-minded Flames to dig deep and deliver in this "plus-money" home situation. The play is CALGARY. Good luck, NP |
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02-28-23 | Bulls v. Raptors OVER 219.5 | Top | 98-104 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Bulls/Raptors. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Both teams are highly motivated for a victory here tonight, and I believe the sense of urgency that each will be playing with, will help in contributing to a faster overall pace, and I believe that'll ultimatley drive this total OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch. Chicago has snapped a six-game slide with back-to-back wins. It's seen the total go UNDER in three straight though, and that's significant to note here, as the Bulls have seen the total go OVER in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight UNDERs in a row. The Raptors though play with revenge after a 111-97 loss to Chicago back on November 7th. That's also significant for us to take note of, as Toronto has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 99 or fewer points in. Toronto is coing off three straight UNDERS as well, includuing a 118-93 loss at Cleveland in its last outing. Note though that the Raptors have seen the total go OVER the number in even of their last ten off a SU/ATS loss in which it was held to 95 or fewer points in. Look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch; the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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02-28-23 | Holy Cross +6 v. Loyola Maryland | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* PATRIOT LEAGUE TOURNEY GOY on Holy Cross. Neither team is very good. Loyola Maryland finished 12-19 and in seventh in the Conference, while Holy Cross was right below it in eighth with a 10-21 record. The last time these teams played against each other, Loyola Maryland earned the 90-68 victory as a 4.5-point favorite just last week. "Revenge" is a dish best served cold they say, and I hear that it's absolutely freezing at Loyola Maryland today. Note that Holy Cross is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference loss against an opponent. Also note that it did win the first matchup with the Greyhounds in the 63-55 victory back on January 8th. These teams are evenly matched and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever side has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is HOLY CROSS. Good luck, NP |
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02-27-23 | Montana State +3 v. Eastern Washington | Top | 79-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Montana State. I love the way this one sets up for the visiting side. Two really good teams going head-to-head here in the final game of the regular season for these Big Sky opponents. Montanta State is 21-9, including 9-5 on the road, while Eastern Washington is 22-8, including 11-0 at home. The Bobcats would love nothing more than to hand the Eagles their first loss of the season at home, while at the same time avenging a 70-67 loss to EWU as six-point favorites on December 31st. Note that Montana State is 4-1 ATS in its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. a conference opponent. Clearly, the outright win isn't out of the question, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The play is MONTANA STATE. Good luck, NP |
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02-27-23 | Bruins v. Oilers +130 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOM on the Oilers. Both teams have been great this season. The Bruins seem unstoppable, as they've already won the first two road games of this current trip, beating Seattle 6-5 and Vancouver 3-1. But now the level of competition and difficulty increases dramatically. And with a really tough game at Calgary tomomorrow, I think that the Bruins finally get caught looking ahead and have a small mental letdown here. I just think that this game means so much more to the Oilers, especially coming off the 6-5 loss at lowly Columbus last time out. This is the start of some really tough upcoming games as well for the Oilers, with games vs. Toronto, Winnipeg twice, Buffalo, at Boston against and then at Toronto. It's "gut check" time for Edmonton. This is a huge "measuring stick" game for the Oilers, as they'll be looking to make this a preview of the Stanley Cup Final. One game at a time though. For me, the value here lies with the "hungrier" home side. The play is EDMONTON. Good luck, NP |
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02-27-23 | Heat +6.5 v. 76ers | Top | 101-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-CONF GOY on the Heat. Maybe surprisingly, the Heat and 76ers play for the first time this year. I like the way this one sets up for the struggling Heat. This is the first game of a back-to-back and if Miami loses this one, I'll almost assuredly be on it again in the next one. But I do think that the desperate Heat have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. Miami has lost four straight SU/ATS and it prompted Jimmy Butler to say after the 108-103 road loss at Charlotte to say: "I hate losing." I think this sets up as a letdown spot for the 76ers, who had their five-game win streak snapped in a tight 110-107 loss to Boston. Philadelphia uses the Celtics as a measuring stick in the East. It was a big mental loss and I say their ripe for the picking here in fact. Miami is also still 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is MIAMI. Good luck, NP |
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02-26-23 | Maple Leafs -145 v. Seattle Kraken | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SPECIAL on the Leafs. Seattle overperformed in the first half, and it's since coming back down to Earth now here in the second. It has a much better road record than at home as well. The Leafs play with revenge here after a 5-1 home loss to Seattle back in January, and that's signficant to note here, as Toronto is 4-1 in its last five in trying to avenge a three goals or greater home loss against an opponent. Seattle has lost its identity it feels of late. It's also lost two straight. It has a five game road trip after this, so I say it gets caught "looking ahead." Lay the price, the play is TORONTO in this revenge-spot. Good luck, NP |
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02-26-23 | Raptors v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 93-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Cavaliers. Despite this being a very public side, I look for the Cavaliers to dig deep and deliver here at home. This is the third game in four nights for the Raptors. They played and came from behind to knock off the Pistons 95-91 last night, but I say that fatigue is a major factor for the visitors this evening. Cleveland has now lost three straight. It's lost four straight ATS. It plays with revenge here as well after falling 1l8-107 here at home to the Raptors in December. With a chance to bounce back here at home where they're still 25-7, while at the same time avenging the earlier loss, I look for the CAVALIERS to do just that in this favorable matchup. Good luck, NP |
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02-26-23 | Valparaiso +6 v. Murray State | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* MISSOURI VALLEY GOY on Valparaiso. I love the way this one sets up for Valparaiso to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. Valpo is just 11-19. It's off three straight SU/ATS losses in a row, which is significant to note here as the Beacons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. They also play with revenge here after a 77-70 OT home loss to Murray State as three-point underdogs back in December, which is also important to note here, as Valporaiso is 4-1 ATS in its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss against an opponent. Murray State is getting just a little too much respect here in my opinion, after an 84-69 road loss at Missouri State last time out. I'm not calling for the outright upset, but this one comes "right down to the wire." Grab the points, the play is VALPARAISO. Good luck, NP |
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02-25-23 | Stars v. Golden Knights -118 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -118 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Knights. I really like the way this one sets up for the Knights from a situational standpoint. Dallas is playing terribly right now, as it's lost five straight. It returns home for more "winnable" game vs. Vancouver and Arizona, so I think the Stars get caught looking ahead. Vegas has won six of its last seven, including a come from behind 4-3 OT win over Calgary here last time out. The Knights play with the added incentive of revenge here after a 4-0 loss at Dallas in mid-January, and note that Vegas is 4-1 in its last five in trying to avenge a shutout road loss against an opponent. In my opinion, this represents the very definition of "great line value;" the play is LAS VEGAS. Good luck, NP |
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02-25-23 | Idaho +8.5 v. Weber State | Top | 53-67 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG SKY GOY on Idaho. I love the way this one sets up for Idaho here. The Vandals are just 10-19, including 4-10 on the road, while Weber State is 15-14, including 7-4 at home. Idaho though is playing with revenge here after a 73-65 loss at home to Weber State as a 2.5-point underdog in January, and that's significant to note here as the Vandals are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss against an opponent. And with an even "easier" game upcoming vs. 8-21 Northern Arizona on the road to end the regular season, there's every reason to believe that the home side will take the foot off the gas in the second half of this one. Look for IDAHO to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Good luck, NP |
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02-25-23 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies -2 | Top | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BOOKIEKILLER on the Grizzlies. Denver has now won four straight after a come from behind 115-109 win at Cleveland in its first game back from the break. With a game on Sunday at home vs. the Clippers, I think the Nuggets get caught "looking ahead" here. Memphis came out of the break with a 110-105 loss at Philadelphia. The Grizzlies have now lost three straight ATS, which is significant to note here as Memphis is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more ATS losses in a row. Memphis also plays with revenge here after a 105-91 loss at Denver as a one-point favorite in December. Give me the revenge-minded home side desperate for a win here. The play is MEMPHIS. Good luck, NP |
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02-25-23 | Northern Illinois v. Central Michigan OVER 135 | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MAC SUPER TOTAL on the OVER NIU/CMU. These teams played to a lower-scoring UNDER when they played earlier in the season, but all signs point to this rematch flying OVER the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. NIU won that game by a score of 73-54. Note though that the Chips have seen the total go OVER the number in nine of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss against an opponent. CMU is coming off B2B losses. It fell 63-35 in its last outing at Buffalo. Note though that CMU has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after a loss in which it was held to 41 or fewer points in. NIU has lost three straight, and the Huskies have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last seven after three or more SU losses in a row. As mentioned above, all signs point to this games total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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02-25-23 | Michigan State v. Iowa -5.5 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Iowa. MSU is 17-10, but it's just 3-5 on the road. Iowa is 17-11, but it's 13-2 at home. Look for the home floor advantage to prove to be BIG in the outcome of this one. One other factor working in Iowa's favor here is that it plays with revenge after falling 63-61 at MSU back in January, and that's significant to note, as the Hawkeyes are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU conference road loss against an opponent. The play is IOWA. Good luck, NP |
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02-24-23 | Avalanche v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* CENTRAL DIVISION TOTAL OF YEAR on the OVER Avs/Jets. I look for this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Colorado is coming off a 6-5 OT wi over Edmoton back on February 19th. It's won three in a row. It plays with revenge here though after suffering a 5-0 defeat here back on November 29th. Note though that the Jets have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a shutout loss against an opponent. The Jets have seen the total go UNDER in ten straight. Gentlemen, we're standing in front of the train here and saying that this streak of UNDERS finally comes to an end between these divisional opponents, who I expect will play to a really faster-paced, and ultimately higher-scoring OVER. Good luck, NP |
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02-24-23 | Austin Peay v. Florida Gulf Coast OVER 134.5 | Top | 71-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASUN TOY on the OVER Austin Peay/FGCU. This one sets up well to be high-scoring affair from a situational stand point. This is the final game of the regular season for both teams. Austin Peay has seen the total go UNDER the number in six straight. That's significant to note though, as the Governors have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 still after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Florida Gulf Coast plays with the added incentive of revenge here as well after falling 61-59 to Austin Peay as a 4.5-point favorite back on January 5th. That's also important to note here, as the Eagles have seen the total go UNDER the number in five of their last seven in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference loss against an opponent. Look for this final game of the regular season to be a wide open one, and as a result, expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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