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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-30-23 | Heat v. Knicks -4.5 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Knicks (10*) We think the Heat are going to take a step back in the opener of this series aferr their big upset win over the Bucks. The Knicks upset of the Cavs was less of an upset. New York is the deeper team. Miami was just 19-25 on the road, while the Knicks were 25-18 at home. The Knicks won 3 of 4 in the regular season series. The Knicks are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. teams with winning records. We're thinking that the "home floor" advantage really will be critical in this series. Lay the points, the play is NEW YORK. Good luck, TIR |
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04-29-23 | Suns +3 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-125 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Suns. The majority of experts and the public are quick to back Denver here, but we here at The Insiders Room believe that KD and the Suns will throw their "best shot" at Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets in Game 1 and while we do think an outright upset is possible, in the end we'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. Phoenix has to try and "split" out here over the first two gams, and we say that the best opportunity to do that, will be here in Game 1. While the majority go one way, we're going the other. The play is PHOENIX. Good luck, TIR |
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04-29-23 | Devils v. Rangers -120 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
9 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Rangers. The Devils have had a great year. They were down 0-2 in this series as well, and are now leading 3-2. Note though that the Rangers are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. They're also 8-3 in their last 11 after three or more straight losses in a row. This is a great series for the league, one that'll be a lot better when it goes to a Game 7. That's what the NHL wants, and while the Devils have in fact garnered most of the early wagers, we feel the value here is on the desperate home side. The play is NEW YORK. Good luck, TIR |
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04-29-23 | Reds -147 v. A's | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Reds. Cincinnati has won four in a row and we think it offers great value at this price to keep that momentum rolling, especially considering the current form of these teams the starting pitchers. Yesterday the Reds won the series opener 11-7. The visitors go with Hunter Greene, who is 0-1 with a 3.52 ERA, while the home side counters with Kyle Muller, who is 0-2 with a 7.23 ERA. Look for the "in form" Reds to continue to build momentum and for Greene to earn his first "W" of the season. The play is CINCINNATI. Good luck, TIR |
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04-29-23 | Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
10 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the OVER Mariners/Jays. The Jays are now 17-9 this year, including 8-2 at home. Perhaps surprisingly though, Toronto has seen the total go UNDER the number in nine straight games. That includes in yesterday's 3-2 series opening win over the Mariners. Toronto is getting great starting pitching, but now the Jays will have an opportunity to plate a few more runs today in our estimation. Seattle has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four and in two straight. The M's though have seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five after three or more straight losses in a row. But Chris Flexen will have his work cut out for him to snap that three-game skid, as the Mariners' starter is a poor 0-4 with a ballooned 8.86 ERA. Toronto counters with Kevin Gausman, who is 2-2 with a 2.84 ERA. We like Guasman, but still say this O/U line is a bit low considering all of these other factors that all points to this being a high-scoring "slug-fest." The play is the OVER. UPDATE: Chris Flexen is now out for Seattle, and Easton McGee is now in. This is still a VALID play, as we expect the short-notice to not work any favors for McGee here. The play is still the OVER. Good luck, TIR |
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04-28-23 | Grizzlies +5 v. Lakers | Top | 85-125 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
10 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Grizzlies. Early on the Lakers were the value play in this series, but now that it's worn on, and off a victory at home to push this to a Game 6, we feel that that value has now swung around in favor of the hungry underdog visiting side. Memphis was favored to win this series and we're expecting it to, at the very least, take Game 6 right down to the wire. An excting Game 7 back in Memphis would be just what the NBA wants as well. Outright win?! Anything is possible of course, and this is just a couple of buckets worth of points. But the value comes down to grabbing the points. The play is the GRIZZLIES. Good luck, TIR |
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04-28-23 | Cardinals v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
9 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the UNDER Cards/Dodgers. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening in the opener of this three-game series. The Cardinals are just 9-16, including only 4-8 on the road. The broke a three-game slide with a 6-0 win at San Francisco last night. The Dodgers have lost two straight. They've seen the total go "over" the number in six straight. Over that span, this total this evening is the highest yet. And now we feel it's a little too high. We have two really strong starting pitchers going head-to-head, and we're expecting each to go deep. Joe Flaherty is 2-2 with a 3.29 ERA for the Cards, while Dustin May is 2-1 with a 3.07 ERA for the Dodgers. The correct call as far as the total is concerned, and for 9 out of 10 of The Insiders Room crew is indeed on the UNDER. Good luck, TIR |
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04-28-23 | Stars v. Wild -107 | 4-1 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Wild. It's do or die for Minnesota. At this price at home and in an elimination contest, we absolutely feel that the value swings to the desperate home side. The Wild have lost two straight, but note that they're 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. They're coming off the 4-0 loss at Dallas, but note that the Wild are also 4-1 in their last five in trying to avenge a shutout road loss vs. an opponent. Value, value, value is what this play is all about. Lay the price, the play is MINNESOTA. Good luck, TIR |
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04-27-23 | Celtics v. Hawks +7 | Top | 128-120 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
9 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Hawks. The Hawks got the walk-off winner from Trae Young in Game 5 and we're expecting that momentum to carry over here in what we anticipate will be a highly competitive Game 6. ATL outscored Boston by 12 in the fourth-quarter. Young has found his confidence and groove. And now the Hawks welcome back Deonte Murray. The Celtics continue to "play down" to the level of the Hawks and we believe they'll once again have their hands full here today. Grab the points, the play is ATLANTA. Good luck, TIR |
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04-27-23 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs -150 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Leafs. Before the NHL season started, we released a pick on the Leafs to win the Stanley Cup. Will that prediction come true? That's the million dollar question obviously, but to do that, TO will have to once and for all "get over the hump" here and slay its arch-nemesis in the Lightning. Remember TB eliminated TO in seven games in the first round last year. The Leafs haven't won a playoff series since 2004. The majority of the public money is on Toronto, which isn't our style, but when we get down to so few games at this point of the season, at some point everyone turns into the "public." With that said, Toronto has been the better team in almost every metric and with a chance to get a huge monkey off their collective backs, we do indeed think this is a great price on the Leafs to deliver the goods here in Game 5. Lay the price, the play is TORONTO. Good luck, TIR |
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04-27-23 | Orioles v. Tigers OVER 8 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the OVER Orioles/Tigers. Detroit had seen the total go UNDER the number in eight straight before yesterday's "push" in the Tigers' 6-2 loss at Milwaukee. Detroit has played to several lower-scoring outcomes of late, but we're finally expecting some offensive fireworks here on Thursday in the opener of this series. Baltimore swept Detroit at home in three games last week, allowing a total of just three runs combined. Kyle Gibson is 4-0 with a 3.60 ERA for the Orioles, and some small amount of regression is now imminent in our estimation. Despite dominating the Tigers last week, note that Gibson is still just 11-11 with a 5.64 ERA in 26 career appearances vs. Detroit. The home side counters with Joey Wentz, who is 0-3 with a 7.56 ERA. We're expecting these starters to get chased early. This total is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, TIR |
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04-26-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Avalanche -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the AVS PUCKLINE. Not many gave Seattle much of a chance at the start of the season. Not many gave the Kraken much of a chance in this series with the defending champs. But now here we are back in Colorado for Game 5 all tied up at 2-2. Who is the pressure on here at this point then? We'd say, the pressure is now on the Avs to respond at home and take control of this series. The Kraken are in unchartered territory, while Colorado has a vast wealth of recent experience to draw upon. Note as well that Colorado is 6-2 in its last eight in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. We're expecting the home side to not only win this crucial Game 6, but to do so in blowout fashion. The play is the AVS on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, TIR |
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04-26-23 | Heat +11.5 v. Bucks | Top | 128-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
10 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Heat. We had a play on the Heat in their Game 4 outright victory, and we say that Miami won't go down without a fight here either. The oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe that the Heat are just going to roll over here in Milwaukee and give the Bucks this game, and then try to wrap it up in Game 6 at home. But clearly, we're not buying that angle whatsoever. The bottom line is, Miami currently has the best player on the floor right now in Jimmy Butler. The Bucks have had issues containing the three-point shooting from the Miami guards, and that fact has been the difference-maker so far in this series. Miami is a deep, experienced and well-coached team. We say this is a few too many points for the Bucks to cover. Grab the points, the play is MIAMI. Good luck, TIR |
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04-26-23 | Dodgers -142 v. Pirates | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -142 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
9 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Dodgers. We had a play on the Dodgers in their 8-7 victory here last night, as they halted the Pirates seven-game win streak. Note that those seven wins came against teams without winning records. The Dodgers have started the season injured, but they're now starting to regain their form which saw them win 111 games last season. The Pirates recent surge will prove to be just a blip on the radar. Will Pittsburgh improve from last season? It would be hard not to. Regardless, for this next contest we also like LA to build off yesterday's win, while all signs point to the Pirates now having a classic letdown here after their win skein was finally broken. Gonsolin and Contreras are pretty much a wash. The Dodgers bullpen is once again rounding into shape and all things considered, we feel the value lies in laying the price here. And that's the call, the play is LA. Good luck, TIR |
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04-25-23 | Hawks v. Celtics UNDER 230 | Top | 119-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the UNDER Hawks/Celtics. Boston is on the verge of closing out this series. The Hawks are injured and now massive underdogs here on the road. Boston has won and covered in three of the four games, including in Game 4's 129-121 victory. The last two games in this series have flown OVER the number, but we're expecting a more methodically-paced affair here in Game 5. The Hawks have struggled with their shooting on the road, especially in this series. Key players now injured for ATL as well. Look for the Celtics to play tough defense here as they close out this series in five games in front of the home town crowd. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, TIR |
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04-25-23 | Islanders v. Hurricanes -150 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -150 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
9 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Hurricanes. Overall we feel this is a great price, on the better team here at home with a chance to close out this series. New York lost 5-2 in Game 4 and the Isles are now on the ropes. They were just 17-19-4-3 on the road. Carolina was one of the best home teams, finishing 30-10-1-2. We're typically contrarian bettors, but despite most of the early money on Carolina, we absolutely feel the correct call is on the Canes to get the job done here in this crucial spot. Lay the price with confidence, the play is CAROLINA. Good luck, TIR |
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04-25-23 | Dodgers -114 v. Pirates | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Dodgers. After seven straight victories, we're expecting the wheels to come off the bus for the Pirates here finally on Tuesday night. After going 13-4 over a 17-day stretch, Pittsburgh had a day off yesterday, and we expect that layoff to throw a small monkey-wrench into the chemistry. Note that LA has won three of its last four. Note that during their run, this will be the Pirates first series against a team with a winning record. Sndergaard is 0-3 with a 4.92 ERA for the Dodgers, while Oviedo is 2-1 with 2.22 ERA for the Bucs. Syndergaard is coming off a hard-luck loss vs. his former team the Mets, going six innings and giving up two runs. He's 2-2 with a 2.73 ERA in five career starts vs. the Pirates. He also has a 19:4 K:W ratio already. After posting a 0.92 ERA over his last three starts, look for Oviedo to come crashing back down to Earth here. Lay the short price, the play is the DODGERS. Good luck, TIR |
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04-24-23 | Maple Leafs -105 v. Lightning | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Leafs. Toronto was eliminated by Tampa Bay in seven games in the first round last year. With the majority of the public money and bets on Tampa, we really feel that we're getting great value here on the more motivated side. These teams are very evenly matched, but the Leafs are just the better overall team this season, and much more motivated. Toronto hasn't won a playoff series since 2004, so to get past TB would be a monumental step for the organization. We say the value is once again on the undervalued road dog. The play is TORONTO. Good luck, TIR |
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04-24-23 | Bucks v. Heat +5.5 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
9 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Heat. Yes the Bucks have Giannis, but Milwaukee definitely appears to missing some chemistry right now. Not the case for Miami, which is playing arguably its best basektball of the season right now. Despite how well you did in the regular season, the Playoffs are all about timing, chemistry and staying healthy. Miami has the advantage in all of those categories right now. The Heat earned the coveted split in Milwaukee, and then destoryed the Bucks 121-99 in Game 3. Game 4 will be tighter, but in a contest that we envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points. The play is MIAMI. Good luck, TIR |
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04-24-23 | White Sox +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 2-5 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on White Sox runline. Neither starter has been great, so neither has an advantage. Lance Lynn is so far 0-2 with a 7.59 ERA for the White Sox, while Chris Bassitt is 2-2 witha 5.40 ERA for the Jays. Lynn is 2-3 with a 4.33 ERA in ten career appearances vs. Toronto. He's 0-2 North of the border, but has posted a 2.12 ERA spanning 17 frames. Bassitt is 2-2 with a 4.01 ERA in five career starts vs. Chicago. The White Sox come in desperate to break their current slide, off a sweep from Tampa Bay, they've lost four straight and nine of their last 11. While just 4-9 SU on the road, the White Sox are 7-6 with the runline. This one could go either way, but either way, we're expecting a tight battle until the end. Lay the reasonable price, the play is Chicago on the runline. Good luck, TIR |
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04-23-23 | Celtics v. Hawks +6 | Top | 129-121 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Hawks. Boston looked great at home defending the Hawks' efficient shooting from the floor, but now back here in Atlanta, the home side looked great in Game 3. We say that momentum carries over here into Game 4. Outright win? Of course anything is possible, but in a contest that we see being decided late, we're going to recommend to grab as many points as you can. Good luck, TIR |
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04-23-23 | Stars v. Wild -109 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
9 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Wild. The Wild managed the split in Dallas, and then Minnesota took control with a win at home in Game 3. Now with a chance to put a strangle-hold on the series, we expect the Wild to take advantage. These teams are very evenly matched, and that's a sentiment shared by the oddsmakers with a line like this. But the home ice advantage is just not being taken into account properly. The Wild now have the momentum and in this case, that's going to be the difference. In our opinions, this represents the very definition of "great line value." The play is MINNESOTA. Good luck, TIR |
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04-23-23 | Astros v. Braves -130 | 5-2 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Braves. After two straight losses, including a 6-3 setback in yesterday's series opener, we like the Braves to bounce back in the decider of this two-game series. Note that ATL is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Both starters have been great so far to open the season, but we'll give the slight nod to Max Fried at home. Fried is 1-0 with a 1.08 ERA. Cristian Javier is 2-0 with a 3.68 ERA for the Astros. Javier has made three relief appearances vs. the Braves and he's 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA, giving up three home runs in three innings. The advantage swings to Fried at home here, and overall we feel we're getting a great price. The play is ATL. Good luck, TIR |
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04-22-23 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 99-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Heat. We're expecting the Heat to bounce back here and, at the very least, take Game 3 right down to the wire. Miami upset the Bucks in Game 1, but then fell in Game 2. The Bucks were good on the road, finishing 26-15, but the Heat were their best at home this season, going 28-15 SU. That's why the Game 1 upset was so important. There's on way Miami goes down in Game 3 without a bitter fight until the end. Grab the points, the play is MIAMI. Good luck, TIR |
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04-22-23 | Red Sox v. Brewers -124 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Brewers. Off yesterday's 5-3 series opening setback, we like the Brewers to bounce back here on Saturday. Boston hands the ball to Garret Whitlock, who is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA, while the home side counters with Wade Miley, who is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA. Miley is red hot to open the season, and we don't see that surge ending today. He's struck out 14 in 18 innings with only three walks. All things considered, we view this to be the very definition of "great line value." The play is MILWAUKEE. Good luck, TIR |
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04-22-23 | Golden Knights +102 v. Jets | Top | 5-4 | Win | 102 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
9 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on Vegas. Winnipeg had to almost win out at the end of the regular season to earn the No. 8 spot. That momentum was then carried over into Game 1, where it inexplicably dominated in the 5-1 victory. The Knights then bounced back as expected with the 5-2 Game 2 win. Vegas was No. 1 in the Pacific, and the Jets were a No. 8 seed. Vegas smashed Winnipeg 3-0 in the regular season, as this is just a big mismatch as far as metrics are concerned. Yes, the Jets did finish 26-13-1-1 at home, but the Knights were 26-7-5-3 on the road. Overall great line value, the play is the GOLDEN KNIGHTS. Good luck, TIR |
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04-21-23 | Hurricanes v. Islanders -115 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
9 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Islanders. We're not counting the Islanders out quite yet. The majority of the bets are on Carolina here, but we're expecting the Hurricanes to finally run out of steam here. Conversely, note that the Isles have in fact responded well in this spot for bettors, going 6-2 in their last eight in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. New York was at its best at home this season, finishing 25-13-1-1 on Long Island. We say that "home cooking" is just what the doctor ordered for the Islanders in Game 3. Lay the price, the play is NEW YORK. Good luck, TIR |
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04-21-23 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -127 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Yankees. The Jays have lost three of their last four. They lost two of three to the Astros, including an 8-1 setback in the most recent. We feel they're the ones that continue to be overpriced on the road, getting a little TOO much respect here in the Bronx. The Yahks have won four of their last five, including a 9-3 blowout victory over the Angels yesterday. Nestor Cortes Jr. went deep and the bullpen is fresh for the home side. Yusei Kikuchi is 2-0 with a 4.70 ERA for the Jays, but regression seems imminent (he's 2-3 with a 4.07 ERA in ten career appearances vs. the Yanks.) The home side counters with Domingo German, who is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA. He's 2-4 with a 3.72 ERA in seven career appearances vs. the Jays. The Yanks have limited their opposition to just 11 runs over their last five games. Look for that streak of excellence to continue here in this important early season divisional matchup. The play is NEW YORK. Good luck, TIR |
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04-21-23 | Celtics v. Hawks +5.5 | Top | 122-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
10 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Hawks. Boston was/is the cream of the crop in the East, but we aren't expecting the C's to sweep the Hawks. It's now or never for Trae Young and company, who uncharacteristically struggled to shoot the ball efficiently over the first two games. ATL was 24-17 at home though this year and while the Hawks may not win this game outright, we're absolutely expecting the most competitive battle so far. The Celtics have now won six straight ATS dating back to the regular season. In their final regualr season games, they played ATL and won and covered in that one as well. Note that Boston is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row. The Hawks are also 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge three or more straight losses against an opponent. Grab the points, the play is Atlanta. Good luck, TIR |
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04-20-23 | Kings v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
10 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Warriors (10*) TO be the champ, you gotta beat the champ. We really liked Sacramento at home over those first two games, but now that the series has shifted to Golden State, we're expecting Stephen Curry and company to bounce-back here, despite Draymond Green getting suspended. The Kings were good on the road, but the Warriors were once again exceptional at home this season, going 33-8. Golden State is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge two more straight losses vs. an opponet. With their backs against the wall, we expect the Warriors to respond in a BIG way tonight. Lay the points, the play is GOLDEN STATE. Good luck, TIR |
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04-20-23 | Mets v. Giants +1.5 | 9-4 | Loss | -142 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on Giants RUNLINE. Outright win? Anything is possible, but the value here in our opinion lies with laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. The Mets go with Kodai Senga, who is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA. New York swept all three from the A's, before taking two of three from the Dodgers. Senga has been great, but the sample size is still too small (just three games.) The home side counters with Sean Manaea, who is 0-0 with a 4.76 ERA. He's faced the Mets twice in his career and gone 1-0 with a 3.55 ERA vs. them. In a game that's going to be decided late, or even in extra frames, the play here is indeed SAN FRANCISCO on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, TIR |
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04-20-23 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs -167 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
6 OUT 10 CONSENSUS on the Leafs. Coaching and playing in the Playoffs, is like handicapping the Playoffs. It's about making adjustments from game to game if you suffer a loss. With their backs against the wall as they look to avoid the 0-2 hole before heading to south to Tampa, we're expecting the Leafs to risk life and limb here to secure a victory. Last year Tampa eliminated Toronto in seven games in the first round. The Leafs though are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Situationally, the value here lies with TORONTO. Good luck, TIR |
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04-19-23 | Kings +1.5 v. Oilers | 2-4 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS Kings PUCKLINE. Edmonton is like Toronto. Good during the regular season, but always chokes in the playoffs. Last year the Oilers beat the Kings in seven games in the first round. Edmonton simply has poor goaltending and defense, conceding 3.12 GPG in the regular season. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extra time, we're grabbing the 1.5 goals of insurance. Good luck, TIR |
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04-19-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Grizzlies. We really like the Bucks here in Game 2, but with the injury to Giannis, we're now steering clear of that contest and instead focussing in here on the Lakers and Grizzlies. The Lakers are healthier than they've been all year, and they were able to pull off the slight upset in Game 1, but we're full expecting the Grizzlies to bounce back here in their biggest game of the season. Clearly the home fav will be risking life and limb here to avoid the dreaded 0-2 hole and heading back to LA for Game 3. The Grizzlies were 35-7 SU at home this year. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Look for MEMPHIS to dig deep and deliver here in Game 2. Good luck, TIR |
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04-19-23 | Angels v. Yankees OVER 9 | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the OVER Angels/Yanks. After playing to four straight UNDERS and in five of their last six, while also losing the opener of this series yesterday by a score of 5-2, we are expecting a higher-scoring outcome here finally for New York on Wednesday. Will the Yanks? Maybe. But maybe not. The bottom line is we don't really trust either starter here. Griffin Canning is making just his second start since coming off a major injury last year. While he's 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA this season, this is his first ever matchup vs. the Yanks. Johnny Brito is 2-1 with a 6.75 ERA for New York. We're expecting each to "get the hook early," and as a result, all signs point to this total going OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, TIR |
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04-18-23 | Seattle Kraken +1.5 v. Avalanche | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Kraken puckline. Seattle was 46-28-8 this year, while Colorado was 51-24-7. Seattle won two of three between the clubs this season, so the Kraken aren't going to be intimidated whatsoever. Seattle was also particularly awesome on the road this season, going 26-11-1-3 away from friendly confines. These teams numbers are really similar on both ends of the ice. We don't think that the moment is "too big" for Seattle, which is filled with veterans. In a game that we see being decided late, or even in extra time, we're grabbing the 1.5 goals of insurance. The play is SEATTLE on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, TIR |
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04-18-23 | Blue Jays v. Astros +1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -175 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on Astros RUNLINE. Despite the slightly steeper price, we still feel we're getting excellent value here by grabbing the 1.5 runs of insurance. The Astros are 8-9 and still looking to get to and move past .500. Chris Bassitt is 1-2 with a 7.63 ERA for the Jays, while Jose Urquidy is 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA for the Astros. Recent performance points to us getting fantastic value here on Urquidy. Lay the price, the play is HOUSTON on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, TIR |
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04-18-23 | Hawks v. Celtics OVER 229.5 | Top | 106-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
10 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the OVER Hawks/Celtics. Atlanta lost Game 1 by a score of 112-99. Note that the Hawks have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last ten off a SU/ATS road loss in which they were held to 99 or fewer points in. It was a poor shooting night for ATL, which was just 5 of 29 from range. We expect an improvement here in Game 2. The Celtics looked great on both ends of the court. With the quicker tempo and overall pace, we're expecting this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, TIR |
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04-17-23 | Warriors v. Kings UNDER 240 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
6 OUT 10 CONSENSUS on the UNDER Warriors/Kings. We're expecting a more defensive affair here in Game 2 between these two teams. Sacramento managed the 126-123 home victory, which isn't totally surprising, as the Warriors went just 11-31 on the road this year. Note though that Golden State has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. The Warriors have to be kicking themselves after controlling Game 1 for the majority, only to let it slip away late. Look for the defending champs to come out with a new tactic here, as they look desperately to avoid the 0-2 hole. This number is now a bit TOO high. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, TIR |
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04-17-23 | Blue Jays v. Astros +1.5 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on Astros RUNLINE. A bit surprising that the Jays are the favorites here on the road, despite Kevin Gausman getting the nod. Gausman is 1-1 with a 1.35 ERA. Regression does seem imminent at some point for Gausman. Christian Javier is 1-0 with a 4.24 ERA for the Astros. Off a 9-1 loss to the Rangers yesterday, I like Houston to bounce back here in the opener of this series. I call these starters a "wash," and that in our opinion swings the value to the undervalued home dog. At this price, the play is indeed Houston on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, TIR |
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04-17-23 | Panthers v. Bruins -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 130 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Bruins puckline. These teams faced each other four times in the regular season, and they went 2-2. However, the Bruins were far and away the best team in the league on both ends of the ice this season. Florida only ranks 21st in GAA and 22nd in shots against per contest. Boton ranked first in GAA and eighth in shots against per game. Look for the BRUINS to not only win Game 1, but to do so by a significant margin. The play is BOSTON on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, TIR |
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04-16-23 | Wolves +8 v. Nuggets | Top | 80-109 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
10 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on Minnesota. Outright win? Anything is possible, but in a contest that we see being decided late, we're going to recommend to grab the points. The Wolves have two competent big men to battle Nikola Jokic with Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns. The Nuggets went just 2-5 down the stretch and were just 7-10 since March 8th. These division foes faced each other four times and went 2-2 SU, but the Wolves were 3-1 ATS. No outright here, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is the WOLVES. Good luck, TIR |
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04-16-23 | Orioles v. White Sox -139 | 8-4 | Loss | -139 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the White Sox. The White Sox just snapped a three-game slide with a tight 7-6 win yesterday, but they'll be eager to keep the momentum rolling here after starting just 6-9 so far. Baltimore is 8-7 and 4-4 on the road. This however is a big starting pitching mismatch, and because of that, we're going to have no issues laying the price. Baltimore starter Grayson Rodriguez is 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA, while Chicago ace Dylan Cease is 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA (note that Cease is 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA in four career starts vs. the Orioles.) This is Rodriguez's third ever MLB start and we all feel that he's been thrown to the wolves in this one. Lay the price, the play is CHICAGO. Good luck, TIR |
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04-15-23 | Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
9 OF 10 CONSENSUS on the UNDER Cubs/Dodgers. Chicago is now 7-5, including 2-1 on the road this year after taking two of three at home over Seattle, and then the first game of this series here in LA by a score of 8-2 yesterday. While Chicago has seen the total fly OVER the number in two of its last three, we like Jameson Taillon to "right the ship" here after a shaky start to the season for the Cubs. Taillon is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA for Chicago after allowing eight runs over his first nine innings of work for his new team. Taillon though was a highly respectable 7-3 with a 4.01 ERA on the road last year, and so we're not "over-reacting" at this point. And there's also only one way for Michael Grove's (0-1, 14.73 ERA) performance to go as well today for LA. He was shelled for nine runs over three innings in a loss to Arizona in his last trip to the hill. We're expecting these hungry starters to battle deep. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, TIR |
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04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings -110 | Top | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
9 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS PLAY on the Kings (MONEYLINE.) The Warriors have won three of the four matchups between these interstate rivals this year, but this is one that favors the home side in our opinions. The Kings fans haven't had playoff basketball since 2006, so we're expecting Sacramento ride the wave of emotion here in Game 1. Sacramento had a break out year and took the foot off the gas in the final weeks due to having the third spot locked up. Look for Sacramento to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win. The play is the KINGS. Good luck, TIR |
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04-15-23 | Rangers +1.5 v. Astros | 2-8 | Loss | -134 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS Rangers runline. We're getting great value here on the Rangers on the runline option. The outright win is a possibility. This is incredibly similar to our play on the Jays on the RUNLINE yesterday in their home game vs. the Rays. Toronto went on to win outright. But the value on that play was for sure to grab the extra 1.5 runs of insurance, as the price was just so good. And that's the case here as well. Houston is overpriced. This is a pitching matchup that favors the visitors. Jon Gray is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA for the Rangers. He's 1-2 with a highly respectable 3.00 ERA in four career starts vs. Houston. The home side counters with Hunter Brown (1-0, 3.09 ERA), who is coming off a strong outing, giving up one run in a 5-1 road win over the Twins. We like Gray to, at the very least, match his counterpart inning for inning. In a contest that we see being decided late or even in extras, we're grabbing the 1.5. The play is TEXAS on the RUNLINE. Good luck, TIR |
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04-15-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | Top | 101-97 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
10 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS Cavaliers FIRST HALF. The Knicks actually won the season series 3-1, but now that the playoffs are here, 10 out of 10 Insiders all align on the Cavs to take control of Game 1 here. Especially in the first half. Note, that if you don't have access to HALF TIME lines, we still like the CAVS for the full game as well. Julius Randle is listed as questionable for this game, which, clearly, is not great for New York. If he does play, he'll be far from 100% healthy. The advantage swings to Donovan Bailey and the hungry home side. The play is CLEVELAND in the FIRST HALF (or FULL GAME.) Good luck, TIR |
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04-15-23 | Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
10/10 CONSENSUS on the OVER Pirates/Cards. Both teams have been playing to some lower-scoring UNDERS, but we're expecting some offensive fireworks in this one. Pittsburgh has now been shutout in B2B losses. Note that the Pirates have seen the total go OVER the number in still eight of their last 11 after getting shutout in their previous outing. St. Louis is playing better, now having won three straight. The bottom line here is though we don't trust either starter, and we're expecting each to "get the hook" early. Steven Matz is 0-2 with an 8.18 ERA for the Cardinals. He's just 2-3 with a poor 5.50 ERA in nine career games vs. Pittsburgh. Roansy Contreras counters for the home side and he's just 1-1 with an 8.00 ERA. While 1-0 in four career outings vs. St. Louis, he owns a pedestrian 5.02 ERA. Everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, TIR |
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04-14-23 | Rockies v. Mariners -165 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10/10 CONSENSUS REPORT on the Mariners. We really like Marco Gonzalez here at home. This line could/should be larger in our opinion. Alex Gomber is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA for the Rockies after allowing seven hits over four innings to go along with five runs in a setback to the lowly Nationals in his last outing. Gomber was at his worst on the road last year, going just 2-3 with a 6.03 ERA over 15 games. Marco Gonzalez is 1-0 with a 4.22 ERA for the Mariners after allowing one run over six innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Guardians. Gonzalez has to be feeling confident here, as he finished with a highly-respectable 3.01 ERA in front of the home town crowd last season. As stated off the top, we feel this line should in fact be much larger. We're on the MARINERS. Good luck, TIR |
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04-14-23 | Thunder v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 32 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 9/10 CONSENSUS REPORT on the Wolves. Karl-Anthony Towns and the Minnesota Timberwolves are scheduled to square off against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's Oklahoma City Thunder at the Target Center on Friday night, and this is one that favors the home side according to 9 out of 10 Insiders. Minnesota fell to the Lakers, but with a chance for redemption on their own floor, we love the Wolves to take advantage. These teams played four times and the Wolves went 3-1 in the regular season. This is just a bad matchup for OKC. The Thunder are super thin beyond Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey, and we believe this finally catches up to them here. Lay the points, the play is the WOLVES. Good luck, TIR |
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04-14-23 | Bulls v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 91-102 | Win | 100 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10/10 CONSENSUS REPORT on the Heat. We watched the Bulls/Raptors Play In game on Wednesday night, and we're still scratching our heads on how the Bulls managed to pull off the come from behind upset. It was just a complete meltdown by the home side. Miami lost to Atlanta, which captured the seven seed, but Jimmy Butler and company now have a golden shot for redemption. Butler now gets to stick it to his old team, just like DeMar DeRozan did to the Raptors. The Insiders Room crew has come to an ultra-rare 10 out of 10 full consensus for this play on the HEAT. Good luck, TIR |
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04-13-23 | Phillies v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | 2-6 | Win | 103 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Phillies/Reds. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end today. Philadelphia had seen the total go OVER in three straight before yesterday's 3-2 loss to Miami. I expect another low-scoring game here with the Phillies handing the ball to Bailey Falter, who is 0-1 with a 2.61 ERA. He'll be opposed by Nick Lodolo, who is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA. Expect these two competent starters to battle deep and for that to ultimately help in driving the opener of this series well UNDER the posted number. Good luck, NP |
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04-12-23 | Thunder v. Pelicans -5.5 | Top | 123-118 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Pelicans. The Pels were 3-1 SU in this season series, and 2-2 ATS. OKC went 45-34-3 ATS this year, but just 2-8 ATS over its final ten games. The Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last five as an underdog. The Pels were only 39-42-1 ATS this year, but they went 6-3-1 ATS in their final ten. New Orleans has come together over the last month, adjusting without Zion Williamson in the line-up, while OKC is just 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road as well. I think the Pels tight defensive play, combined with their efficent home shooting will be too much for the Thunder on the road here. Lay the points, the play is the PELICANS. Good luck, NP |
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04-12-23 | Tigers v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 105 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a 10* AL TOM on the UNDER Tigers/Jays. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect that trend to end here. Detroit has lost five straight. That's signficant to note here though as the Tigers have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after five or more straight losses in a row. The Tigers play with revenge here after falling 9-3 in yesterday's opener. I really like both pitchers. Eduardo Rodriguez won't be lacking motivation here after starting 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA for the Tigers. He most recently allowed four runs over five innings to the Astros. Rodriguez will have to be sharp, as the Tigers rank dead last in runs this season and 29th in batting average (.201). And that's bad news for the visting side and good news for Kevin Gausman and the Jays. Gausman is 1-1 with a 0.00 ERA, most recently holding the Royals scoreless over six innings. The Jays offense has been great, but I don't believe it'll have to be today. I'm expecting these starters to battle deep, and while yesterday's contest did fly over the number, all signs point to this one being more of a "duel." The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-12-23 | Astros -161 v. Pirates | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on the Astros. I like the Astros to dig deep here and win this series. They have the better hitting line-up, better bullpen and better starting pitcher on the hill. Houston turns to Jose Urquidy, who is 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA, opening this current road trip with a no-decision after allowing one run off seven hits with six K's over 5 1/3's innings vs. the Mets. Rich Hill is 0-1 with a 10.00 ERA for the Pirates. He is coming off a no-decision as well after getting shelled for seven runs over four innings vs. the White Sox on Frida. Look for Urquidy to guide his team to a solid victory here and lay the price with confidence. The play is HOUSTON. Good luck, NP |
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04-11-23 | Cardinals -162 v. Rockies | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MOUND MISMATCH on the Cardinals. After starting 3-7 and off back-to-back losses, including a 7-4 setback in yesterday's series opener, I like Miles Mikolas and the Cards to dig deep here and get the job done against Kyle Freeland and the home side. Mikolas (0-1, 9.64 ERA) has struggled in back-to-back starts to open the season. He had a decent spring and last year he owned a respectable 4.11 ERA on the road. I think he can bounce back here with a much better performance. Freeland is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA, but regression is imminent in my opinion. Last year Freeland was 5-6 with a 6.00 ERA at home. The moral of the story here with these starters, is not to overreact to early results. Look for the Cards to be the more desperate team here from the first pitch, and expect that to ultimately be the difference-maker in the outcome of this one. The play is ST. LOUIS. Good luck, NP |
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04-11-23 | Hawks v. Heat -4.5 | Top | 116-105 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* PLAY-IN TOURNEY GOY on the Heat. The Heat are 3-1 in the season series, and I believe that the home floor advantage will ultimately prove to be the difference in this one. Atlanta was just l7-24 on the road, while the Heat were 27-14 at home. These guys played to several tight battles during the regular-season, but I anticipate Miami comfortably pulling away for the win and cover. Miami's defene was second in the NBA, allowing just 109.8 PPG, and in this crucial spot here at home, I think Trae Young and the Hawks will have a very difficult time moving the ball. Look for MIAMI to cover in front of the home town crowd. Good luck, NP |
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04-11-23 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUNLINE PLAY on the Red Sox. The saying, all good things have to come to an end, could not be more apt in this particular case. Yes, Tampa won the opener of this series by a score of 1-0 and the Rays are now out to the best start in franchise history at 10-0, but the Red Sox looked pretty decent in defeat as well yesterday. At least the bullpen did. I'm expecting another tight battle here as well, but regression is imminent at some point, both for the Rays as a whole, but also for some of their starting pitchers, including Shane McClanahan, who is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA. The visitors counter with Garrett Whitlock, who makes his season debut here. He is fresh off a strong rehab in Portland. He's 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in 12 innings vs. Tampa in his career. Overall he's 12-6 with a 2.73 ERA for his entire career, now entering his third season. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, Im grabbing the 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is BOSTON on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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04-10-23 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks -138 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL GOW on the Diamondbacks. Two teams that have gotten out to decent starts collide here in Arizona, but I believe this is one that favors the home side. The Brewers hand the ball to Wade Miley, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after going six innings and striking out three in a victory over the Mets in his debut. Miley was limited last year due to injury, and while he was 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA at home, he was 0-2 with a 5.01 ERA on the road. Zac Gallen is 0-1 with a 7.59 ERA for the D-Backs after allowing five runs over five innings in a loss to the Dodgers in his last outing. After back-to-back duds, I think Gallen settles down here finally. Note that Gallen was 6-3 with a 2.61 ERA at home last year. I'm banking on Milwaukee taking a step back here on the road in the opener of this series. Lay the price, the play is ARIZONA. Good luck, NP |
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04-10-23 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 11 | 4-7 | Push | 0 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL SPECIAL on the OVER Cards/Rockies. I think we'll see some offensive fireworks here today. Matz is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA for the Cards, while German Marquez is 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA for the Rockies. Matz gave up four runs off ten hits over five innings in a loss to the Braves in his opener. He's 1-5 with a 7.22 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Rockies and a terrible 0-2 with a 9.20 ER in three starts at Coors Field. Marquez beat San Diego in his opener, and then lost to the Dodgers on Tuesday. He's had success vs. the Cards in the past, but Coors Field is the great equalizer here. Look for these two line-ups to chase these starters early and then expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-10-23 | Padres v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Padres/Mets. Two really good starters going head-to-head here and I believe that'll translate into a lower-scoring UNDER to open up this series in New York. Yu Darvish is 0-0 with a 1.80 ERA for San Diego, while Max Scherzer is 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA for the Mets. This is interestingly a rematch of the Game 1 of last October's NL wild-card series. Darvish is 6-0 with a 2.41 ERA in nine career outings vs. the Mets, while Scherzer is 6-4 with a 3.32 ERA in 17-regular season starts and playoff appearances vs. the Padres. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-09-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers -140 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* FIRST FIVE INNING BLOWOUT on the Brewers. I like the way this one sets up for a FIRST FIVE innings play on Freddy Peralta (1-0, 0.00 ERA) and the home side. That said, I also really like Milwaukee for the entire game as well if you don't have access to FIRST FIVE innings picks. The Cardinals got a much-needed win last night. I was on St. Louis. But I expect an immediate step back here. Peralta goes up against Jake Woodford (0-1, 12.46.) Note that Milwaukee's pen has thrown 21 straight scoreless frames and has conceded just three runs all year, the fewest in MLB. And so, if you can't find a FIRST FIVE line, that's why I also really like Milwaukee for the FULL GAME as well. Peralta gave up two hits over six scoreless in a win over the Mets on Monday. Woodford allowed six runs over four innings (including three homers), in an 8-4 loss to the Braves on Monday. This is the final game before the Brewers embark on a ten-game road trip, and I expect them to make the most of it. The play is MILWAUKEE. Good luck, NP |
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04-09-23 | Mariners -122 v. Guardians | 6-7 | Loss | -122 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MISMATCH on the Mariners. Seattle lost three of four to the Guardians at home to open the season, but the Mariners have taken the first two games here in Cleveland. I think the M's can now sweep the series with what I believe is the superior starter on the hill. George Kirby is 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA for the Mariners after alowing 4 runs off 9 hits over five innings in a loss to the Angels. Zach Plesac is 0-0 with a 54.00 ERA, allowing six runs over one innings in what turned out to be a fortunate no-decision vs. the A's on Monday. Kirby was 5-2 with a 3.56 ERA on the road last season, and I look for him to settle down here and for the Mariners to keep the momentum rolling. Lay the price, the play is SEATTLE. Good luck, NP |
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04-09-23 | Marlins v. Mets -140 | 7-2 | Loss | -140 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MOUND MISMATCH on the Mets. After losing three straight at Milwaukee, the Mets have bounced back to take the first two games of this series. And now I like New York to post the series sweep in what is another favorable starting pitching matchup for them. The visitors hand the ball to Braxton Garrett (0-0, 6.00 ERA), while the home side counters with Carlos Carrasco (0-1, 11.25.)Â Garrett is 0-1 with a 4.08 ERA in four career games vs. New York, while Carrasco is 5-1 with a 2.63 ERA in ten career starts vs. the Marlins. I love the veteran Carrasco to bounce back big here in friendly confines and have no issues at all in laying what I feel is a very reasonable mid-sized price. The play is the METS. Good luck, NP |
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04-08-23 | Cardinals -138 v. Brewers | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL GOM on the Cardinals. After four straight losses, including a 4-0 setback here in the series opener, I like the underachieving Cardinals to dig deep here and get back into the winner's circle finally. Note that St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine off a shutout loss vs. an opponent. Jordan Montgomery (1-0, 5.40 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while Eric Lauer (1-0, 3.38) counters for the home side. True, the Brewers are rolling, but after six straight wins, I believe a small mental lapse in motivation happens here. Lauer is just 2-3 with a 6.46 ERA in seven career appearances vs. the Cardinals. Montgomery is 1-1 with a 3.52 ERA in three career starts vs. Milwaukee. Look for the desperate CARDINALS to get the job done finally. Good luck, NP |
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04-08-23 | Red Sox -145 v. Tigers | 14-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a 9* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Red Sox. Boston is now 3-4 after opening this three-game series with a 6-3 win yesterday. The Red Sox were swept at home by the Pirates, and I expect them to keep the foot on the gas here Saturday afternoon in what I feel is a big starting pitching mismatch that works in their favor. The visitors go with Tanner Houck (1-0, 5.40 ERA), who gave up three runs and struck out five vs. Baltimore in his season debut. Detroit counters with Joey Wentz (0-1, 5.06), who allowed three runs over five innings on the same afternoon in Tampa Bay. Houck was 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA on the road last season, and I believe he's the correct call here on Saturday afternoon. Lay the price, the play is BOSTON. Good luck, NP |
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04-08-23 | Astros +108 v. Twins | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SIDE WINNER on the Astros. It's just the start of the season, but the Astros are in need of a win here tonight, and after a slow start, I do expect a better performance all around in this one from the visiting side. Houston dropped the opener of this series 3-2 yesterday. The Twins starting pitching has been phenomenal to open the season, but I say that regression is in order after this unsustainable streak of excellence. Joe Ryan is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA this year, but note that he's 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in one career start vs. Houston last year. Houston had a six-game win streak in this series going till yesterday. Luis Garcian is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA for the Astros, but note tha the's 3-1 with a 2.66 ERA in four career outings vs. the Twins. I look for the hungrier visiting side to avenge yesterday's setback. The play is HOUSTON. Good luck, NP |
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04-07-23 | Blue Jays v. Angels -115 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the LA Angels. Both teams are loaded with hitting talent. I just think Toronto is getting a little too much respect here on the road, as I give the nod to Patrick Sandoval in this starting pitching matchup. The Jays are 4-3 overall so far, all on the road. The Angels are 4-2 so far, and this is their first home series. Sandoval (1-0, 1.80 ERA) won just six games last year over 27 starts despite a 2.91 ERA for the Angels. He'll be opposed by Chris Bassitt (0-1, 24.30), who allowed nine runs over three innings in forgettable loss to the Cardinals. I expect Toronto to take a step back here now after three straight wins at Kansas City. Good value here on Sandoval and the hungry home side. The play is LA. Good luck, NP |
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04-06-23 | Thunder -6 v. Jazz | Top | 114-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* NORTHWEST GOY on the Thunder. Both teams are still in the mix for the Playoff tournament, but I say that this is a contest that favors the desperate visting side. This one will definitely have a playoff like atmosphere. Each team enters on a three-game losing streak. But despite having soiled the sheets down the stretch, the Thunder still have a Golden opportunity here, as they can clinch a spot in the playoffs with victories in their final two games at Utah here tonight, and then at Memphis on Sunday. The Jazz have been covering games for bettors of late, as they've covered in four straight, but they've lost seven of their last eight straight-up. Utah has to catch up to Oklahoma City, but it also has Dallas just ahead of it, and the Mavericks own the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Thunder are off the 136-125 road loss at Golden State, but they've been competitive even in defeat here down the stretch. The Jazz are off the dishearteing 135-133 overtime loss to the Lakers. That's a huge mental letdown for this young team, which battled back from ten points down in the final two minutes of regulation to force the extra period. Oklahoma City has won two of three in the season series. I think the Thunder are the correct call here again in this crucial playoff like contest. So that's my read on this one, lay the points, the play is the THUNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-06-23 | Lightning v. Islanders -115 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Islanders. It's a big game for New York here. I'd argue that it's the biggest game of the season for the Islanders, who currently sit in ninth spot in the Eastern conference standings, two games behind Florida. Tampa is in sixth spot, with four total games remaining. The Lightning have 94 points, while the Rangers are in fifth with 101, tied with Toronto. Pittsburgh is in seventh with 86. The Lightning of course don't want to go into the playoffs on a losing streak, but Tampa is already locked in to a first round matchup with Toronto. But it's do or die time for the Islanders, who are clinging on to a wildcard spot. New York also plays with the immediate revenge factor after losing 5-0 in Tampa Bay on Saturday. The Isles then lost 2-1 at Carolina on Sunday. The Lighting come in fatigued here as well after a 6-2 loss at New York just last night. The Islanders hold the second wild card spot in the East, but barely. I think they can rebound here from that shutout loss in Tampa, as note that New York is 7-3 in in its last ten in trying to avenge a shutout loss against an opponent. In fact, to say this is a "revenge" game would be a bit of an understatement, as the Lightning have won six straight regular-season meetings in this series. This one means a lot to the Islanders. The Penguins are right behind them and they simply can't afford another loss. I say New York rallies big time at home and the Lighthing throw in the white towel early. Lay the short price, the play is the ISLANDERS. Good luck, NP |
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04-06-23 | Nationals v. Rockies -147 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL MISMATCH on the Rockies. I think Kyle Freeland and the home side are worth the price of admission in this spot. Freeland is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, while Josiah Gray is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA for the Nationals. Freeland was part of Team USA in the WBC last month and he tossed six innings total and allowed two runs, striking out tournament MVP Shohei Ohtani as a highlight. Freeland has to be feeling confident here facing Washington as well, as he's 4-2 with a 2.70 ERA in seven career outings vs. the Nats. And that's bad news for a Washington team that's scored two or fewer runs in four games this year. So far the Nationals have only hit two home runs this season. Gray is actually 2-0 against the Rockies despite a 5.03 ERA spanning four career matchups. But I say that Gray takes a step back here in this difficult road venue. Freeland could/should in fact be a much bigger fav here. Lay the price, the play is COLORADO. Good luck, NP |
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04-05-23 | Kings v. Mavs UNDER 245.5 | Top | 119-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Kings/Mavericks. With just a handful of games to go, Sacramento is pretty much locked into the No. 3 spot. It's two games behind the Grizzlies with three games to go. It's four games up on Phoenix, who is in fourth. With Sacramento now looking towards the Playoffs, I believe we'll see this team come in a bit flat-footed here tonight. Dallas on the other hand is in 11th spot, 15 games behind Denver. This is a game that the Mavericks need to win after losing seven of their last eightl. They're off an exhausting and heartbreaking 132-130 OT loss at Atlanta last time out as well. The Mavs also play with revenge after a 133-128 OT loss to the Kings at home in February. I say the conditions are now correct for more of a defensive affair. A lot of things have to go "right" for teams to hit over 240 points, and I just don't see that happening tonight. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-05-23 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -5 | Top | 131-138 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Pelicans. Memphis is the No. 2 spot after a 119-109 win over Portland last night. I think fatigue will be a major issue here in the second game of the back-to-back. The Pelicans come in off a 121-103 loss to Sacramento last night. They were a four-point favorite. New Orleans is now in eight spot, only a .5 game up on the Wolves. This is a huge game for the Pels, who also play with revenge after a 116-101 loss to Memphis in late December. In one of its most important games of the year, I look for NEW ORLEANS to put the foot on the gas and to avenge the earlier setback at ths same time. Lay the points. Good luck, NP |
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04-05-23 | Flames +116 v. Jets | Top | 3-1 | Win | 116 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Flames. I lost with Calgary last night, but I expect the Flames to risk life and limb to secure a victory here. These teams have four games left to go in the regualr season, and Winnipeg sits in eighth spot, just two games ahead of Calgary. This is do or die for the Flames tonight, and I expect them to play like it. Of course, Winnipeg won't be rolling over, as it has an opportunity to deliver the knock out blow. The last time these teams got together, Winnipeg earned the 3-2 victory on January 3rd, so the Flames also play with revenge here. In what will be a tight and competitive affair, I like CALGARY to find a way to get the job done. Good luck, NP |
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04-05-23 | Guardians v. A's +115 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP DOG OF APRIL on the A's. I like the way this one sets up for the slight underdog A's, as I feel they have the superior starting pitcher on the hill. Great value on the home side. Kyle Muller is 1-0 after going five innings and allowing one run vs. the Angels in his opener. He enters with a sharp 1.80 ERA. Hunter Gaddis counters for the visitors and he's 0-0 with a 9.82 ERA after getting roughed up by the M's allowing four runs over just three innings. Muller brings over a winning mindset from his time in Atlanta and I look for him to easily get the better of his counterpart. The play is OAKLAND. Good luck, NP |
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04-05-23 | Braves v. Cardinals -120 | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* HOMERUN ROUT on the Cardinals. I like the Cards to bounce back in the finale of this three-game set with the Braves after dropping the first two, and before hitting the road for a difficult trip starting in Milwaukee. Miles Mikolas is 0-0 with a 13.50 ERA for the Cards after allowing five runs off ten hits over just 3 1/3's innings to the Jays on Thursday: "Death by a thousand cuts sometimes," Mikolas said. "I don't think I can remember a game where a team has made that much soft contact and had just about everything drop in for a hit. Broken bats. Just kind of rolling them through the infield." Mikolas threw 12 scoreless innings in Spring training though, so I say the Jays game is an outlier. While only 1-3 lifetime vs. ATL, Mikolas does own the respectable 3.04 ERA over those five appearances. Bryce Elder has been recalled from Triple A to make this start for the Braves. In ten big-league starts last year he went 2-4 with a 3.17 ERA. But, I still say that Mikolas is the correct call here. Look for the revenge-minded home side to find a way to salvage this final game; lay the price, the play is ST. LOUIS. Good luck, NP |
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04-04-23 | Blackhawks v. Flames -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* WESTEREN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK on the Flames puckline. Believe it or not, this home game against the lowly Blackhawks here at home at the end of the season is arguably the Flames most important game of the entire season. Calgary is currently in ninth spot in the standings, sitting just two games back of Winnipeg for the eighth spot, with five games remaining. Calgary is in fact in Winnipeg tonight, so a loss here to Chicago would be basically too big of a hole to climb out of, with just not enough time to do it in. The Flames also play with revenge here after a 5-1 loss to Chicago here as a -415 favorite back in January, and note that Calgary is 4-1 in its last five in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. I expect Calgary to take full advantage here and to go up early and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. The Flames have won four in a row, and I say that momentum continues here. I say Calgary not only wins this game, but it does so in commanding blowout fashion. Lay the price and the 1.5 goals, the play is the FLAMES on the puckline. Good luck, NP |
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04-04-23 | Braves v. Cardinals -128 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Cardinals. I like the Cards to bounce back here after yesterday's 8-4 series opening loss. The Braves hand the ball to Dylan Dodd, who makes his MLB debut today. He'll be opposed by Steven Matz, who was 5-3 with a 5.25 ERA in 15 appearances last year. He's 6-3 with a 3.42 ERA in 15 career starts vs. the Braves. I think Matz and ST. LOUIS are the correct call, great value overall. Good luck, NP |
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04-04-23 | Phillies +1.5 v. Yankees | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DESTROYER on the Phillies RUNLINE. Despite having some key sluggers out of the line-up still, it's "all hands on deck" for the 0-4 Phillies tonight. The Yanks are going to have a bit of a mental letdown here in my reckoning after startiing 3-1. The Phillies go with Matt Strahm, who is 4-10 with a 5.08 ERA as a starter. In ten appearances vs. the Yanks he's been good though despite an 0-2 record, sporting a sharp 2.45 ERA. The home side counters with Domingo German, who finished Spring training by going 1-1 with an 8.71 ERA. He was 2-5 with a 3.61 ERA as a starter last year, but he's 0-1 with an 8.68 ERA in three career appearances vs. the Phillies. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is PHILADELPHIA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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04-03-23 | San Diego State v. Connecticut OVER 132.5 | Top | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTIMATE TOTAL on the OVER SDSU/UConn. I had a play on the OVER in SDSU's Final Four win over FAU. I expect another higher-tempo and ultimately higher-scoring affair here as well. SDSU will be forced to match pace with UConn, which is loaded with diverse offensive talent. Both teams have played to several UNDERS throughout their Conference and NCAA Tournament runs, but that fact has only helped in driving this Championship Game total a few points lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion. I just think that if UConn does sit back and let the Aztecs control the tempo, and if this does turn into a full-court defensive battle, then it's a game that will favor the underdog here. So I don't see the offensively talented Huskies letting that happen. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-03-23 | Orioles v. Rangers -130 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL GOM on the Rangers. The Orioles are 1-2, and the Rangers are 3-0. Baltimore scored 23 runs in its opening series, and Texas had 29. Kyle Bradish was 4-7 with a 4.90 ERA in 23 starts as a rookie for the Orioles last season. He was 1-1 with a 6.61 ERA in five starts in the Spring. Jon Gray counters for the home side. I like the veteran here. He was 7-7 with a 3.96 ERA over 24 starts in 2022. In two career outings vs. Baltimore he's 1-1 with a 4.52 ERA. Gray looked great in Spring training though, going 3-1 with a minuscule 1.02 ERA over five games. All things considered, I think we're getting fantastic line value here. The play is TEXAS. Good luck, NP |
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04-03-23 | Braves v. Cardinals +124 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* UPSET BLOWOUT on the Cardinals. Both teams enter at 2-1. The Braves looked "OK" against the lowly Nationals, while the Cardinals looked pretty dominant over the Jays. St. Louis does in fact enter with a team batting average of .373, which leads the league. Charlie Morton was 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA in 31 starts last year for the Braves. He has struggled with the Cardinals throughout his career though, going 3-12 with a 5.33 ERA in 20 starts vs. them. The home side counters with Jake Woodford, who was 4-0 with a 2.23 ERA in 2022. He had a strong spring, striking out 18 and walking five over 18 innings while allowing four runs on 13 hits, and I believe he carries that momentum over here. Great value here on the home side. The play is ST. LOUIS. Good luck, NP |
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04-02-23 | Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 233.5 | Top | 134-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE TOM on the UNDER Lakers/Rockets. The Lakers are going to be back in the Playoffs this year. Currently they're in the eighth spot, a .5 game up on Minnesota. They've won two straight, including a crucial 123-111 victory over Minnesota last time out as two-point favs. LA has seen the total go OVER in three straight, which is significant for us to take note of here, as the Lakers have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. LA plays with revenge here as well after falling 114-110 at Houston as a 2.5-point favorite in mid-March, and that's also important to note, as the Lakers have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avvenge a SU/ATS loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Houston has seen the total go OVER in three straight as well. All of these team's recent high-scoring affairs have helped in driving this O/U number a few points higher than it normally would/should be in my opinion. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-02-23 | Mets v. Marlins +1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -160 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RUN-LINE SPECIAL on the Marlins. This is the finale of a four-game series here in Miami. New York is so far 2-1. With a chance to even things up, I think the Marlins have a legitimate shot at winning this one outright. However, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Mets hand the ball to Kodai Senga, who makes his MLB debut here. He spent 11 seasons in pro ball in Japan, with a 104-51 record and 2.42 ERA. He could go on to become the next Yu Darvish, but I still think that Trevor Rogers has the slight advantage here. Rogers is only 12-21 with a 4.13 ERA over three MLB seasons and 55 starts. That's for various reasons. He come sin off a decent Spring though and he's 2-1 with a 2.76 ERA in six career starts vs. the Mets. In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extras, I'm laying the price for the 1.5 runs for MIAMI. Good luck, NP |
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04-02-23 | Giants +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -147 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Giants run-line. It's the start of the season. We'll base our picks on different criteria for this particular contest, than we will in a month from now. For arguments sake, I believe these team's line-ups are pretty much "even." It would not be hard to write a convincing argument for either team to win today based upon the quality of the bats in each team's line-up. For me this one comes down to the starting pitchers, and I believe that Ross Stripling has a clear advantage. As good as Jhony Brito has looked in Spring Training and early on, he draws a tough assignment out of the gate here in the Giants. Stripling was 10-4 with a 3.01 ERA in 32 appearances for Toronto last year. He's 0-5 with a 4.55 ERA in seven career appearances vs. the Yanks, but I say that run of futility comes to an end here. That said, the value here lies in laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket, as I see this contest being decided late, or even in extras. The play is SAN FRANCISCO on the RUN-LINE option. Good luck, NP |
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04-01-23 | Clippers v. Pelicans OVER 223 | Top | 114-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Clippers/Pelicans. With just over a week to go in the regular season, neither team can afford to take the foot off the gas. Currently, the Clippers are in the sixth spot, and the Pelicans are in the eighth. LA had seen the total go OVER the number in four straight before a 108-94 loss at Memphis last time out. Note though that the Clippers have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 off a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to 95 or fewer points in. LA also plays with revenge after a 131-110 loss to New Orleans as a 5.5-point favorite. And that's also important to note, as the Clippers have seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss against an opponent. The Pels have won six of their last seven. They've seen the total go UNDER in three straight though (and note, New Orleans has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last seven after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.)Â Look for this faster-paced affair to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-01-23 | Florida Atlantic v. San Diego State OVER 131.5 | Top | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP PLAY on the OVER FAU/SDSU. These are two of the best defensive clubs in the nation. The reason they've advanced to this point is because of their incredibly tough defensive play. This fact however has only helped in driving this Over/Under line finally a few points lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion. FAU is off a high-scoring 79-76 win over KSU, and it'll look to duplicate that performance. SDSU though has seen the total go UNDER the number in all seven of its postseason games this year. Despite that though, note that the Aztecs have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 still after playing to five or more straight UNDERs in a row. The Law of Averages is flawed in many ways, but I do now finally expect some more efficient offensive play in this one to help in seeing this total eclipsing the posted number as it comes down the stretch. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-01-23 | Mets v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE BLOWOUT on the Marlins. The Mets big bats have so far struggled this year. I think that will again be the case here. I give a big nod to Marlins' starter Edward Cabrera. The Mets go with Tylor Megill, who has been forced into the rotation out of necessity with injuries to Justin Verlander and Jose Quintana. He's pitched two games and six frames vs. the Fish and gone 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA. Cabrera is only 1-1 with a 7.20 ERA in four career outings vs. the Mets, but he took a big step forward last year, finishing 6-4 with 3.01 ERA. Look for the home side to once again keep this one very competitive. Clearly, the outright win isn't out of the question, but I feel the value here lies in grabbing the insurance. The play is MIAMI on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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04-01-23 | Giants +1.5 v. Yankees | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ROUND-TRIPPER on the Giants RUN-LINE. I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Judge and the Yanks earned a 5-0 win in the first game, but with a day off to focus and with what I feel to be the superior starting pitcher on the hill, I expect the visiting side to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Clarke Scmidt was 5-5 with a 3.12 ERA in 29 outings for New York last year. Three of those were starts in which he went 0-2 with a 4.63 ERA. Alex Cobb was 7-8 witha 3.72 ERA in 28 starts for the Giants last year. He's 7-5 with a 3.21 ERA in 18 career starts vs. New York. The outright is possible, but let's go with SAN FRANCISCO on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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04-01-23 | Blue Jays v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP IL TOTAL on the UNDER Jays/Cards. I really like these starting pitchers. The first game flew well OVER the number in the Jays 10-9 blowout victory. But with a day off in between, I'm expecting these capable starters to take center stage. Kevin Gausman was 12-10 with a 3.35 ERA for the Jays last year. He went 1-1 with a 4.22 ERA in two starts vs. St. Louis last season. He'll face a Cards lineup that won't have catcher Willson Contreras in it, as he took a fastball off the knee on Thursday, after collecting two hits himself earlier. Jack Flaherty has been injured off and on the last two years. Last season he was l2-1 with a 4.25 ERA in nine appearances. He was 9-2 with a 3.22 ERA in 2021. Look for these two starters to battle deep, and as a result, all signs do indeed point to a lower-scoring defensive affair. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-31-23 | Kings v. Blazers OVER 231 | Top | 138-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Kings/Blazers. With under two weeks left to go in the regular season, I believe being selective with your approach is a pretty sound strategy. Motivation plays a big factor for all teams at this point of the season. Some teams are dying for all the victories they can get, while others have thrown in the white towel. The Blazers won't be in the playoffs this year, but after falling 120-80 to Sacramento last time out just two nights ago, I'm expecting a much better offensive performance here. As note that Portland has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last six after a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 95 or fewer points in. Sacramento has a few tough games to end the regular season, vs. Denver, New Orleans, Dallas and Golden State, so this is an opportunity it won't be looking past. I'm expecting the Kings to dupliate their offensive performance from last time out here, and with the Blazers matching pace, we can look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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03-31-23 | Rockies v. Padres -175 | 4-1 | Loss | -175 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Padres. I play underdogs, I play totals, I play first half picks, I play parlays, teasers, and I also am not afraid to lay chalk and hammer a favorite when I think my "play on" side should in fact be a much larger fav. And that's the case here with the Padres. I think they should be more like a -275 fav in this case, so there is plenty of value to be had. Freeland has had success here in the past vs. San Diego, but Nick Martinez has a golden opportunity here to highlight his talent with injuries to starters Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. Martinez was 4-4 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 42 games last season. He was particularly effective against the Rockies last year, as in six appearances he posted a 3.31 ERA spanning 16 1/3's innings of work. Lay the price with condfidence, the play is SAN DIEGO. Good luck, NP |
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03-31-23 | White Sox v. Astros -155 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Astros. I'm going to lay the price here on the home side and expect it to dig deep and deliver after losing 3-2 as a -140 favorite. Lance Lynn has always had a hell of a time against the Astros, as he's 0-5 with a ballooned 8.80 ERA over his last five starts vs. Houston. Christian Javier is worth the price of admission here. Over 30 appearances for the Astros last year he finished with a tiny 2.54 ERA. He's only faced the White Sox once in his career (last season), and he gave up one run with five K's over five innings in a 4-3 victory. I expect another victory here today as well. Lay the price, the play is the ASTROS. Good luck, NP |
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03-31-23 | Rangers v. Sabres +127 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 127 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Sabres. The Rangers' three-game win streak came to an end in last night's 2-1 loss at New Jersey. I say fatigue plays a factor here at the end of the season and in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Buffalo plays with revenge after a 2-1 OT loss to the Rangers on March 11th, and note that the Sabres are 3-1 in their last four in trying to avenge a home loss against an opponent. Buffalo had its two game win streak snapped with a 4-3 shootout loss to Montreal, but it's had three whole nights off to regroup here. Great value on the revenge-minded home side, the play is BUFFALO. Good luck, NP |
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03-31-23 | Mets v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER Mets/Marlins. Yesterday's Season Opener flew OVER the total in New York's 5-3 victory, but I believe Friday's contest sets up as more of a "duel." David Peterson gets the start here because of injuries to Jose Quintana and Justin Verlander. Last year Peterson was 7-5 with a 3.83 ERA in 28 appearances. In five career outings vs. the Marlins he's 2-1 with a 2.74 ERA. The Mets bullpen looked good, getting three scoreless innings of relief. Jesus Lazardo gets the nod for the home side. He's 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA in four career starts vs. the Mets. Last year had had 18 starts and finished 4-7 with a career-best 3.32 ERA. I expect another tight, competitive affair on Friday as well, but one that stays UNDER the number. Good luck, NP |
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03-30-23 | Diamondbacks +159 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* UPSET BLOWOUT on the Diamondbacks. I think the Dodgers are poised to take a big step back this season after setting a franchise-record with a 111 wins last year. Walker Buehler is going to miss most of the season with Tommy John. Trea Turner is gone. Gavin Lux is out for the season with a knee injury. They still have plenty of talent on the front end, but there are big holes for sure. The Diamondbacks took a step forward last year, and they should once again take another modest step forward this season as well. Julio Urias posted a 2.16 ERA last year. Regression feels imminent to me this season though. Zac Gallen was 12-4 with a 2.54 ERA last ear. He led the NL with a 0.913 WHIP. He's 1-2 in nine starts vs. the Dodgers, but with a 2.30 ERA (that includes posting a 0.64 ERA in 14 frames vs. them last season.) Granted, Urias has had plent of success vs. Arizona as well, going 7-1 with a 1.38 ERA in eight starts. But, I think Gallen can, at the very least, match his counterpart inning for inning, and in a scenario like that, I feel the value then swings to the undervalued underdog. The play is ARIZONA. Good luck, NP |
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03-30-23 | Angels v. A's +1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUNLINE BOB on the A's. Despite Shohei Ohtani getting the start here, it's always difficult to trust the Angels on the road. Ohtani was 15-9 with a 2.33 ERA last season. He pretty much dominated the A's, but I think they'll have their opportunities as this game wears on. Kyle Muller comes over from Atlanta after only going 1-1 with an 8.03 ERA in 2022. He'll benefit from an under the radar A's offense that was lighting things up in Spring Training, posting 12 runs vs. the Giants in Monday's exhibition finale. I think this one could even be decided in extras. Grab the 1.5 runs, the play is OAKLAND on the RUN-LINE. Good luck, NP |
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03-30-23 | Blue Jays v. Cardinals +107 | 10-9 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Cardinals. All the pieces are in place for each of these teams to do well this year. The Jays go with Alex Manoah, who was 16-7 with a 2.24 ERA last year. The Cards are favored to win the NL Central this season. Miles Mikolas gets the nod, and he was 12-13 with a 3.29 ERA last year. He faced the Jays' high-powered offense last year and dominated, going seven innings and allowing three earned runs, with St. Louis winning 7-3. St. Louis has won its last three Openers and I expect that to once again be the case here. This is a difficult road venue for the Jays on Opening Day, so I say the value for sure here lies with St. Louis. The play is the CARDINALS. Good luck, NP |
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03-30-23 | Mets v. Marlins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL TOW on the UNDER Mets/Marlins. Both of these teams struggled with offensive consistency last year. That will likely be the case again this season. This Opening Day pick though is based upon the quality of these starting pitchers. Max Scherzer was 11-5 with a 2.29 ER last year. He's 15-5 with a 2.94 ERA in 26 starts in his career vs. Miami. Sandy Alcantara was 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA in 2022 and in 14 career matchups opposite the Mets he's gone a highly-respectable 3-5 with a 2.97 ERA. Look for these two dominant starters to battle deep. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-30-23 | Tigers v. Rays OVER 6.5 | 0-4 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Tigers/Rays. The odds are against the Tigers to make the playoffs this year, but I expect them to plate a few runs here on Opening Day. They hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez, who was not the team's first pick to start on Opening Day. However, Matt Boyd is still out for a week or two with injury. Rodriguez went 5-5 with a 4.05 ERA in 17 starts for Detroit last season, suffering through injury. He's a terrible 2-5 with a ballooned 5.59 ERA in 14 career appearances vs. the Rays. Shane McClanahan was 12-8 with a 2.54 ERA for the Rays last year. He'll be leaned upon heavily this season. But that said, I expect each team to plate a few here on Opening Day, and this total is just way too low. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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