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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-24-24 | Flames +1.5 v. Oilers | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* BK on the FLAMES on the PUCKLINE option. A great spot wager here. You may want to sprinkle a little on the money line option as well, as I feel that the Oilers will be "gassed" here in the second game of the back-to-back after falling 4-2 to the Wild last night. Calgary has won two straight and it plays with revenge after a 31 loss to the Oilers back in January (note that Calgary is 3-1 in its last four in trying to avenge a home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent as well.) Lay the price with confidence for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance; the play is CALGARY on the PUCKLINE. Good luck, NP |
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02-24-24 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Lindenwood +11.5 | Top | 82-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* OHIO VALLEY GOY on Lindenwood. While I'm stopping short in calling for an outright victory, I do love the way this one sets up for the home side from a situational stand-point. UALR is the better team. It's 17-11 overall, while Lindenwood is only 8-20. The Rams though are just 5-6 on the road. UALR comes in complacent after six straight victories in my opinion, especially with back-to-back upcoming home games to close out the season, starting with 16-12 Tennessee State mid-week. The Lions have lost six straight, both SU and ATS, but despite a 106-82 loss to Tennessee Martin as a nine-point dog last time out, Lindewood is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after five or more SU/ATS losses in a row. The Lions also play with revenge after an 80-66 loss at UALR as 9.5-point dogs, and note that Lindenwood is in fact 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, the play is LINDENWOOD. Good luck, NP |
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02-24-24 | Oklahoma +1.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 84-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 GOY on Oklahoma. Oklahoma is 18-8 overall, but just 2-4 on the road, while Oklahoma State is 12-14 overall, including 10-5 at home. The Sooners are off back-to-back losses, both as dogs, but now will look to bounce back here and get back on track. Oklahoma though is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three or more ATS losses in a row. The Sooners won this game 66-62 as 11-point favorites earlier in the month, so they won't be taking the Cowboys lightly, who I believe look primed for a letdown here after back-to-back victories, both as an underdog. The Cowboys are now getting a little TOO much respect here and I look for the "better" and "hungrier" visiting side to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion. Lay the points, the play is on OKLAHOMA. Good luck, NP |
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02-24-24 | Atlanta United v. Columbus -160 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* MLS GOM on Columbus. Home-field advantage will prove to be the difference-maker here. You may want to sprinkle a little on the OVER as well here, as these were the top two-scoring teams in the MLS last year. The Crew though were the No. 1 offense with 67 goals and they're the defending champs at home. Atlanta got knocked out of the MLS Cup Playoffs last year, as they played all three games to decide a winner. Columbus won the finale 4-2 and I'm expecting a similar final score line here on Saturday afternoon as well. Atlanta will have its hands full with an offense that scored 32 goals at home last year, and which conceded just 17. Lay the price, the play is indeed on COLUMBUS. Good luck, NP |
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02-24-24 | Fulham v. Manchester United -174 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -174 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL GOM on Manchester United in the FIRST HALF (I also like for the entire game, but take on the spread option if you don't have a FIRST HALF option available.) Fulham is just in 12th place. It comes in with zero momentum, off a 2-1 loss to Aston Villa. It will have to play at an elite level and make zero mistakes to pull off an upset. I don't see that happening. I see the visitors going down early and then struggling to find any momentum whatsoever. Manchester United is in sixth place. It's looked better over the last month. It edged past Luton 2-1 last week. I think it'll win by an even bigger margin here. Man U is unbeaten in its last 16 matches vs. the EPL. Fulham has lost 13 of its last 16 matches away from home against Manchester United in EPL action. Look for the home side to go up EARLY in the FIRST HALF, but then to also keep the foot on the gas and to win BIG overall as well in regulation. Good luck, NP |
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02-23-24 | Nuggets v. Blazers +10 | Top | 127-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* NORTHWEST GAME OF MONTH on the Blazers. Here is a great spot for Portland to earn, at the very least, a solid cover. Denver comes in on the heels of a 130-110 home win over Washington just last night, and I believe it'll be fatigued here in the second game of the back-to-back. With a much more high-profile game at Golden State up after this, this also sets up as a "look ahead" spot for the visitors. Letdown + lookahead = trap game. Portland plays with revenge after its 112-103 loss at Denver at the start of the month. The Blazers did earn the ATS cover with the 15 points that they were afforded in that one. The Blazers went into the break off six straight losses, but they come into the second half here tonight rested and I believe they'll keep this one competitive throughout. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is PORTLAND. Good luck, NP |
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02-23-24 | Sabres -1.5 v. Blue Jackets | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP-SHELF WINNER on the Sabres puckline. I like Buffalo to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion. Buffalo is coming off a 3-2 win at Montreal and I expect it to carry that momentum over here into this even more favorable road contest. After this though, its "murderer's row" for the Sabres, who fact Carolina, Florida and Tampa Bay respectively. That puts added incentive onto this contest for the visitors. The Jackets have in fact been really good on the puckline this year for bettors, but I think they'll get blown out in this one. They're off 7-4 win at Anaheim as a road dog, but have been trading wins and losses over their last four games. That pattern now continues here at home vs. this focused Sabres side. Lay the 1.5 goals for the healthy return. The play is indeed on BUFFALO on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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02-23-24 | Kent State v. Akron OVER 136 | Top | 70-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC TOY on the OVER Kent/Akron. This one sets up really well to be a wide-open offensive battle finally, between two teams that have been involved in several defensive affairs of late. Kent State is just 13-13 overall. It's off a 63-57 loss at Ohio, and note that the Flashes have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 off a SU/ATS conference road loss in which they were held to 59 or fewer points in. Kent also plays with revenge after a 77-71 loss at home to the Zips. I think we'll see s aimilar final combined score in this one as well, or even higher. Akron is 19-7 and No. 1 in the MAC. After a 72-64 loss at Toledo last time out though (the Zips eighth straight UNDER in a row,) note that they have in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last ten off a SU/ATS conference road loss as an underdog. The overall situation that each team finds itself coming into this one, combined with the above listed numbers/trends, does indeed make the OVER the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one in my opinion. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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02-22-24 | Hornets v. Jazz -9 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -114 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
This is 10* NON-CONF GOW on the Jazz. I'm a situational capper and this one sets up really well for the home side. Charlotte is 13-41 overall, including just 5-21 on the road, while Utah is only 26-30 overall, but 17-10 at home. Both teams return to the second half well-rested, but I think that the home-court advantage will prove to be the differnce-maker here. The Hornets are only 8-17 ATS on the road, while Utah is 18-9 ATS at home. The Jazz went into the break on four straight losses but they beat Charlotte 134-122 on the road as ten-point favorites back in January and I'm expecting an even bigger destruction this time around. Lay the points with confidence, the play is UTAH. Good luck, NP |
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02-21-24 | VMI v. East Tennessee State OVER 147.5 | Top | 69-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* SOUTHERN TOY on the OVER VMI/East Tennessee State. These two teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I say the stage is now set for a much higher-scoring "shootout" here finally on Friday night. VMI is just 4-23, including 0-13 on the road. East Tennessee State on the other hand is 13-14 overall, including 8-4 at home. The Buccaneers have lost three straight, but note that East Tennessee State has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after three or more straight losses in a row. VMI plays with revenge nearly pulling off the epic upset at home over the Bucs, as the Cadets fell 74-73 as 10.5-point favorites. Note though that VMI has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a conference home loss vs. an opponent. I'm expecting another competitive battle, but one that's more wide-open and ultimately higher-scoring once the final horn sounds. This number is low in my opinion, so the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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02-20-24 | Baylor v. BYU -3.5 | Top | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP REVENGE PLAY on BYU. Revenge is a powerful motivating factor. Or it can be. It can also be overrated at times. But not in this case in my opinion. Baylor is 19-6 SU, but just 3-3 on the road. BYU is 18-7 overall, including 13-2 at home. The Cougars had their two game win streak snapped last time out in a 93-83 loss at Oklahoma State as 6-point favorites. They've now lost four straight against the spread. But note that BYU is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more ATS losses in a row. And the Cougars do indeed play with revenge after falling 81-73 at Baylor as 4.5-point dogs back in January, and note that BYU is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent. Baylor has won two in a row SU and three straight ATS, but note that the Bears are just 4-6 ATS in their last ten after three or more ATS victories in a row. Will Baylor get caught "looking ahead" to its next game at home vs. No. 1 Houston in a couple of days? The answer is: very possibly! There are many significant factors working in favor of the REVENGE-minded home side today. Lay the points, the play is BYU. Good luck, NP |
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02-19-24 | Stars v. Bruins -123 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DESTROYER on the Bruins. I'm a contrarian for sure. But in the NHL, there's fewer people wagering, and so "where the public money is," becomes an almost "non factor." Dallas is a slight dog on the road here, but with a tough game at New York tomorrow night, off the big outdoor OT victory over the Isles, I say this is a classic "look ahead" spot for the visitors, who enter off a 4-3 OT home loss to the Oilers, snapping a three-game win streak. Boston though has lost four straight. Not for a lack of trying though, as evidenced by its most recent 5-4 OT loss here to LA. With a big Western road swing up next for the Bruins, this afternoon's non-conference matchup here vs. Dallas takes on even added importance for the hungry home side. All things considered, I feel this to be the very definition of "great line value." The play is BOSTON. Good luck, NP |
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02-18-24 | Evansville v. Illinois State UNDER 135.5 | 79-86 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Evansville/Illinois State. Just a great overall situational play here. Evansville is 15-11, but only 4-8 on the road, while Illinois State is just 12-14 overall, but 7-6 in front of the home town crowd. The Purple Aces will be eager to stop a two-game slide. They held on for the 58-54 upset win as two-point dogs back in late January and I'm anticipating another tight, and lower-scoring UNDER here as well. This nubmer is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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02-18-24 | Tulane +2.5 v. East Carolina | Top | 67-81 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* BK on Tulane. While I clearly believe the outright win is a very distinct possibility, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can here with the visiting side. Tulane is 13-11, including 2-5 on the road, while ECU is 13-12, including 10-7 at home. Tulane comes in off back-to-back losses, both as a dog. These teams haven't played since last year, and Tulane managed to pull off the 81-78 SU upset victory as a 12.5-point underdog. ECU is off B2B victories, both as a favorite. Note though that the Pirates are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine after three or more ATS victories in a row. Clearly, with a spread like this the oddsmakers believe these teams are evenly matched. And they are this year. But the overall situation, combined with the trends, favors the visitors. Grab the points, the play is TULANE. Good luck, NP |
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02-18-24 | Chattanooga v. Furman -2 | Top | 65-82 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* SOUTHERN GOM on Furman. I base my picks on many different things. This particular one is essentially based around the "revenge factor." Chattanooga is 18-8, including 8-5 on the road, while Furman is 14-12, but 10-2 at home. The Paladins play with revenge after a 73-58 loss at Chattanooga at the start of January, and note that Furman has indeed responded very well in this spot for bettors, going 8-2 (80%) ATS in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent. Chattanooga has indeed won three straight, but note that the Mocs are just 1-3 ATS in their last four after three or more SU victories in a row. Revenge is a powerful motivating factor and it'll prove to be the difference-maker in this one once the final horn blares. Lay the points, the play is FURMAN. Good luck, NP |
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02-17-24 | Arizona State v. Arizona UNDER 158 | Top | 60-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC 12 TOW on the UNDER Arizona State/Arizona. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to much more of a defensive battle in my opinion. This is just a great "situational" based pick. Arizona State is 13-12 overall, including only 3-5 on the road, while Arizona State is 19-5 overall, including 12-0 at home. Steering clear of this massive spread for each side, instead anticipating the defensive battle. ASU has won two straight SU, three straight ATS and it's seen the total go OVER in three straight. But note that the Sun Devils have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Arizona has won five straight. Its last two have flown OVER the number. However, note that the Wildcats have seen the total dip below the posted number in four of their last five after five or more SU victories in a row. With 19-6 Washington State coming to town next, the Wildcats reserve some fueld and "control" the pace of this one, which will lead to it ultimatley staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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02-17-24 | Red Wings v. Flames -119 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -119 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOM on the Flames. Here's a great "situational" play on a hungry home side that plays with revenge and when you take into account those two factors, plus a few others while also considering how great this line is, there's no doubt in my mind that we're getting unreal "line value" here on Calgary. Detroit is off back-to-back losses to kick off this road-trip, allowing 12 goals in the process. Calgary has also lost two straight, most recently falling 6-3 in a humbling setback at home to San Jose. The Flames play with the added incentive of revenge here though as well after a 6-2 loss at Detroit back in October. The Wings get caught looking ahead to their final road game of this trip at Seattle and the desperate home side risks life and limb to avegne the earlier upset. Lay the short price with confidence, the play is indeed on CALGARY. Good luck, NP |
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02-17-24 | AFC Bournemouth v. Newcastle United -113 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -113 | 65 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* GOW on Newcastle United. The bottom line here is that I feel we're getting fantastic overall "line value" in this spot and matchup. AFC Bournemouth is terrible. It's 7-10 overall, but somehow it beat Newcastle 2-0 in the reverse fixture at home back in November. Newcastle is 11-10 and it's off the 3-2 win at Nottingham. Look for the revenge-minded home side to pull away for the convincing victory in regulation and lay the price with confidence on NEWCASTLE. Good luck, NP |
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02-16-24 | Hurricanes v. Coyotes OVER 6 | Top | 5-1 | Push | 0 | 30 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Canes/Coyotes. As primarily a situational handicapper, this one sets up really well to be more of an offensive affair, rather than a lower-scoring defensive one. Carolina is 30-17-2-3, including 13-11-0-1 on the road, while Arizona is 23-25-4-0, including 15-11-0-0 at home. The Hurricanes have seen the total go UNDER the number in six of their last seven, but off a 4-2 loss at Carolina, I believe the visitors bounce back here offensively against this porous Arizona defense. With a game at Vegas tomorrow night, the Canes simply can't afford to "look past" this opportunity. Arizona has lost seven straight. It's all hands on deck after its most recent 3-1 loss here to Minnesota. The road ahead gets no easier for the Coyotes either with upcoming games vs. Colorad, Edmonton, Toronto and Winnipeg. With each team pushing the pace like I suspect, all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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02-16-24 | Mt. St. Mary's v. Rider UNDER 146.5 | Top | 57-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAAC TOY on the UNDER Mount St. Mary's/Rider. These two hungry sides have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a defensive affair here on Friday in my opinion. Mount St. Mary's is 11-13, including 4-10 on the road, while Rider is 8-16, including 5-4 at home. Mount St. Mary's has won four straight. It's seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that the Mountaineers have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Mount St. Mary's plays with revenge as well after a 66-62 home loss to Rider as a 4.5-point favorite back in January. I expect a similar hard-fought battle here. Rider has lost three straight. It's seen the total go OVER in five straight, but note that the Broncs have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straigth OVERS in a row. A great situational play here on the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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02-15-24 | Wolves v. Blazers +9 | Top | 128-91 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* NORTHWEST DIV. GOY on the Blazers. As primarily a "situational" capper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse. This is the last day of NBA games before the All-Star break, and with a few players heading to the big event, I say the visitors get caught "looking ahead" here. Portland has lost five straight SU and three straight ATS after its 121-109 loss at Minnesota two nights ago, but note that the Blazers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more ATS losses in a row. It's a PERFECT SPOT BET here on Portland, which catches the Wolves complacent and "looking ahead." I'm not going to go out on a limb and call for an outright upset or anything, but all signs definitley point to a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting in my opinion. Grab the points, the play is PORTLAND. Good luck, NP |
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02-15-24 | Seattle Kraken v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the OVER Kraken/Bruins. As primarily a "situational" capper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse. Seattle is 22-21-6-4 this year, including 11-12-3-3 on the road, while Boston is 32-11-8-2 this season, including 17-6-3-1 at home. Seattle just snapped a three-game slide with a tough 2-1 shootout win at Long Island. That was the Kraken's fifth straight UNDER in a row, but note that Seattle has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Seattle has also seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four off an upset road win as an underdog. After losing three of their last four, including two in a row, clearly the Bruins will be off to shake off the rust here. The last one was a tough 3-2 shootout loss to the Lightning. With both of these non-conference opponents opening things up like the way I anticipate, all signs do indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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02-15-24 | College of Charleston v. Northeastern UNDER 154.5 | Top | 77-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* CAA TOY on the UNDER Charleston/Northeastern. These two conference opponents have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to much more of a defensive battle here on Thursday in my opinion. Charleston is 18-7 after three straight victories. It's seen the total go OVER in three of its last four. Northeastern is 10-15. After losing four straight, the Huskies have now won two in a row, most recently a 77-65 victory over Monmouth here last time out. Northeastern has seen the total go OVER in four of its last five. With a tough game at Hofstra up next, the home side will look to duplicate its winning game-plan from its most recent victory and double-down defensively here. The last thing the home side can do is turn this into a track meet and expect to "hang" with Charleston. The Cougars have lowly William and Mary at home up next, as they've hit a favorable part of their schedule. In what I anticipate will be a much more methodical pace than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, the play here for sure is on the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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02-14-24 | Clippers v. Warriors OVER 234.5 | Top | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* PACIFIC DIVISION TOY on the OVER Clippers/Warriors. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs point to a much higher-scoring "shootout" here finally on Wednesday between these Pacific Division rivals in my opinion. LA is 35-17, including 15-11 on the road, while Golden State is 26-24, including 14-13 at home. The Clippers are just 1-2 in their last three and they've seen the total go UNDER in three straight. That's significant for us to take note of here though, as LA has in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Golden State plays with revenge here after a 121-113 loss at LA in mid-december, and note that the Warriors have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss vs. an opponent. The Warriors are unquestionably playing their best basketball of the season right now as well after five straight wins/covers. Golden State has also seen the total go UNDER the number in five straight games, but note that the Warriors have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. With each team pushing the pace like I suspect in this one, all signs do indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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02-14-24 | Panthers v. Penguins OVER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONF TOY on the OVER Panthers/Penguins. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs do indeed finally point to much more of a wide-open shootout here between these Eastern Conference opponents on Wednesday night in my opinion. Florida is 33-15-3-1 overall, including 17-7-1-1 on the road, while Pittsburgh is 23-19-5-2 overall, including 13-8-1-2 at home. The Panthers are 4-1 in their last five and they've seen the total go UNDER in five straight. Note though that Florida has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. It's Pittsburgh though that plays with revenge here after a 3-2 shootout loss at home back in January, and note that the Pens have seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a home loss vs. an opponent. Since that tough loss, the Pens have gone 2-2 and they've now also seen the total go UNDER in five straight, which is important for us to take note of as Pittsburgh has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last eight after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. With each team pushing the pace like I suspect, everything points to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is indeed on the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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02-14-24 | Michigan State v. Penn State +3.5 | Top | 80-72 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN GOY on Penn State. Revenge. It's a powerful motivating factor, or it can potentially be a powerful motivating factor. Both for the teams actually playing the game, and also for handicappers in their arsenal as far as looking at motivation etc when it comes to a matchup. Sometimes the "revenge factor" can be wildly over-rated, but other times it definitely is something that can't be ignored. And that's the case with this game here on Wednesday in my opinion. Michigan State hammered Penn State 92-61 on January 4th, with Malike Hall going for a career-high 24 points, but now it's time for the Nittany Lions to respond. And they've actually done really well in this spot for bettors going 7-3 against the spread in their last ten in trying to avenge a straight up and against the spread conference road loss in which they were held to 69 or fewer points in. The difference in the first game was at the three-point line, as the Spartans went 10 of 21 from range, while the Nittany Lions were just 3 of 29. Now back at home, I think those big discrepancies will correct themselves here for Penn State. Michigan State is off an 88-80 upset of then No. 10 Illinois and has won four of its last five, which really sort of sets this up as a potential letdown spot in my opinion, especially with a big rivalry game at Michigan up next for the Spartans. Letdown + look-ahead = TRAP GAME! Penn State is looking to get back on track here as it had won three straight before its most recent 68-63 loss to Northwestern. While I do think an outright victory is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with PENN STATE. Good luck, NP |
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02-13-24 | Louisville v. Boston College -8 | Top | 77-89 | Win | 100 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC GOY on BC. As primarily a "situational" handicapper, this one falls right into my "wheel-house."Â Louisville is just 8-16 overall, including only 1-7 on the road, while BC is 13-10 overall, including 8-4 at home. The Cardinals have been alternating wins/losses over their last four games and off a 79-67 home win over Georgia Tech last time out, I expect this pattern to continue. BC has dropped two in a row, but SU and ATS. Both against really good teams, falling 63-62 here to FSU as a four-point fav, before losing 80-65 at Duke as a 13-point dog last time out. These teams last met on March 7th in the postseason, and the Eagles posted the convincing 80-62 victory, and I fully expect a similar final lop-sided beatdown in this one as well. These teams meet in Louisville to finish off the season. Home court advantage is going to be the difference-maker in the end as I like the more "in form" home side to pull away down the strech for the comfortable win and cover. The play is BOSTON COLLEGE. Good luck, NP |
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02-13-24 | Hurricanes v. Stars -121 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOY on the Stars. Two really good teams, but I think that home ice advantage really will prove to be a difference-maker in this one. Carolina is just 13-10-0-1 on the road, while Dallas is 16-8-2-0 at home. The Hurricanes are off back-to-back wins, but after a 1-0 OT victory at home two nights ago, and with a contest at Arizona in two nights from now, I think the visitors come in flat-footed in this one. Dallas has won five of its last six. It's off a 3-2 victory at Montreal. It plays in Nashville next, making this home contest that much more important. Any time you can get a team of the Stars' calibre here at home at this price, you RUN, don't walk to the counter. The play is indeed on DALLAS. Good luck, NP |
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02-13-24 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 227 | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Celtics/Nets. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a higher-scoring "shootout" here in my opinion between these two Eastern Conference opponents. The Celtics are 41-12, including 16-9 on the road, while the Nets are 21-31, including 13-16 at home. Boston has won four straight, but lost three straight ATS, which is significant to note as the Celtics are in fact 5-1 ATS in their last six after three or more ATS losses in a row. This is the opener of a home and home set between the clubs. Brooklyn just snapped a three-game SU/ATS slide though with a 123-103 win over San Antonio and I think it keeps that offensive momentum rolling here. With each team pushing the pace from the outset like I suspect, all signs do indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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02-12-24 | Spurs v. Raptors OVER 234 | Top | 122-99 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the OVER Spurs/Raptors. These teams have both been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to much more of a wide-open offensive affair this time around North of the border in my opinion. The Spurs are 10-43, including 5-22 on the road, while Toronto is 19-34, including 11-14 at home. San Antonio has lost seven straight. It fell 123-116 in OT at home to the Raptors back in November, and I think we'll see a similar competitive battle here as well. Note as well that the Spurs have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. Toronto lost 119-95 here to Cleveland in its last outing and note that the Raptors have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 after a SU/ATS home loss in which they were held to 95 or fewer points in. With both of these non-conference teams opening things up and pushing the pace like I suspect, all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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02-11-24 | 49ers -114 v. Chiefs | Top | 22-25 | Loss | -114 | 316 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* GOM on the 49ers moneyline. If you've made it this far in the season and you've purchased this pick off of me, congratulations, because you are now part of a historic NFL Playoff run which has so far seen me go 10-3 with ALL releases (making a single pick on every game played so far!)Â And that also means that if you're betting on this game, that the cast of characters on both sides of the field are well known, along with the strengths and weaknesses of each of these teams. There are thousands of different story lines and if you have in fact been living under a bridge and don't know a single thing about this game, then just google it and you'll have literally 10 million "review" articles to choose from to get "up to date."Â I'm here to tell you why I think San Francisco will not only win this game, but also cover the small spread at the same time. First off, is the money really any "greener" here in the NFL than it is over in College hoops right now? There's only one game and every bookmaker has his eyes on this contest. The bottom line is, there's not a tremendous amount of "value" left here in this contest. But, with nearly 65% of the early public money on the Chiefs, we're going to "go the other way" and go full on contrarian with this release. Let's bypass the spread, and just take the 49ers to win this game on the moneyline option. Yes, the Chiefs made it back to the Super Bowl, but Kansas City is not putting the fear of god into anyone this year (I had the Chiefs last week.) KC has struggled with offensive consistency from game to game and now it faces a 49ers team that really "found" itself in the second half of its Division championship victory two weeks ago. I think CMC and this 49ers offense will be too much for Patrick Mahomes this time around. The Chiefs' defense has been the storyline for KC to this point, but I still think this San Francisco offense will prove to be the difference-maker in this one. San Fran has the advantage in almost every metric by my measure and my official call for Super Bowl 58 will indeed be to grab the 49ERS on the MONEYLINE. Good luck, NP |
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02-10-24 | Cal-Irvine v. Cal-Riverside +8.5 | Top | 78-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG WEST GOM on UC Riverside. While I do think an outright victory is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. UC Irvine is 18-6, including just 6-6 on the road, while UC Riverside is only 9-15 overall, but 8-3 at home. Home floor advantage definitely comes into play here. The Anteaters have won five straight SU and three straight ATS, but note that UC Irvine is in fact a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten after three or more ATS victories in a row. UC Riverside snapped a three-game slide with a 65-63 win over CSU Baksersfield last time out, but it's lost three straight. That's also significant for us to take note of here as the Highlanders are 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more ATS setbacks in a row. While I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting in my opinion. Grab the points, the play is UC RIVERSIDE. Good luck, NP |
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02-10-24 | Bulls v. Magic UNDER 216 | Top | 108-114 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE TOM on the UNDER Bulls/Magic. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a defensive battle between these Eastern Conference opponents in my opinion. Chicago is 25-27, including only 10-15 on the road, while Orlando is 28-24, including 16-7 at home. Chicago is coming off back-to-back wins and has now seen the total go OVER in four straight. note though that despite the rare 118-110 road win at Memphis last time out, the Bulls have still seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Orlando has won four of its last five. It beat Chicago 103-97 in Chicago back in November, and all signs point to a similar hard-fought, but ultimately lower-scoring "under" here on Saturday as well in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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02-10-24 | Stars v. Canadiens UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the UNDER Stars/Canadiens. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but this one sets up great for a couple of different reasons to finally be a lower-scoring "war of attrition" here on Saturday afternoon in my opinion. Dallas is 31-14-5-1 overall, including 15-6-3-1 on the road, while Montreal is 21-21-4-4, including only 10-12-2-1 at home. Dallas has won four of its last five and seen the total go OVER the number in four of five as well. It's off a 5-4 loss at Toronto last time out though and we can now expect the visiting side to double-down on the defensive end after that setback (previous to that won 2-1 at Buffalo.) Montreal is 2-1 in its last three after a 5-2 win at Washington, but note that the Habs have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 off a road win as an underdog. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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02-10-24 | Wisconsin v. Rutgers OVER 130.5 | Top | 56-78 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN ULTIMATE on the OVER Wisconsin/Rutgers. This game has "over" written ALL over it! Wisconsin is 15-7, but just 3-5 on the road, while Rutgers is 12-10, including 9-3 at home. The Badgers had played to three straight OVERS before their most recent 72-68 loss at Michigan as 8.5-point favorites, and note that Wisconsin has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 off a SU/ATS conference road loss as a favorite. Rutgers has won two straight and it's seen the total go UNDER in four straight, most recently holding for a 56-53 low-scoring victory at Maryland as a 7.5-point dog, but note that the Scarlet Knights have seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last ten off a SU/ATS conference road win as an underdog. With each team pushing the pace like we suspect, all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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02-10-24 | Sheffield United v. Luton Town -127 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -127 | 113 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* GOM on Luton Town. I don't have a lot of faith in either side, but this is one matchup in which the home field advantage can't be overlooked. Sheffield United has lost ten of its last 12 away EPL contests. Luton has scored at least two goals in four of its last six EPL home games. Sheffield United has conceded over 1.5 goals in nine of its last 11 on the road. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." Lay the price with LUTON in regulation. Good luck, NP |
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02-09-24 | Oilers v. Ducks OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* PACIFIC DIV. TOM on the OVER Oilers/Ducks. Edmonton has played to 11 straight UNDERS. The Oilers are one of the best stories of the season after starting so horribly and now coming into this contest at 29-16-1-0 overall. Edmonton's achilles heel has been its play on the road where it's a more pedestrian 13-10-0-0. Here's a perfect opponent to get untracked against, as the 18-30-2-0 Ducks are just 8-17-1-0 at home. Anaheim is off back-to-back victories though and it plays with revenge after a 7-2 loss here to Edmonton back on New Year's Eve. I expect a similar faster-paced, wide-open "shootout" here as well. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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02-09-24 | San Jose State +16.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 47-66 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* MW GOM on San Jose State. I'm not calling for an outright win or anything, but everything points to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in my opinion. San Jose State is 8-15, including only 1-8 on the road, while CSU is 18-5, including 12-1 at home. After six straight SU losses and five straight ATS losses in a row, the visitors come in "under the radar" here and are a bit undervalued. In fact, note that the Spartans have in fact performed well in this spot for bettors by going 7-3 ATS in their last ten after five or more ATS losses in a row. Clearly, the Rams are the better team as they enter off three straight SU/ATS victories in a row. That's also significant for us to take note of though as CSU is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row. With a game at 18-5 SDSU after this, not only does this set up as a natural "letdown" spot for the home side, but also a "look-ahead." Add those two factors together and you get "TRAP GAME!" As stated off the top, no outright, but much closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is SJSU. Good luck, NP |
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02-09-24 | Rockets v. Raptors UNDER 233.5 | Top | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Houston/Toronto. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games, including against each other in Houston's 135-106 home win over Toronto just two weeks ago, but everything points to a much tighter and lower-scoring battle here North of the border in my opinion. Note that Toronto has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. With each team doubling down on the defensive end like I suspect, everything points to this total staying well UNDER the number once it's all said and done in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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02-08-24 | Washington v. Oregon UNDER 157 | Top | 80-85 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC 12 TOM on the UNDER Washington/Oregon. Definitely love the way this one sets up to be a lower-scoring "under," rather than a high-scoring "shootout." As primarily a "situational" handicapper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse. The Huskies are 12-10 overall, including just 2-4 on the road, while the Ducks are 15-7 overall, including a near-perfect 10-1 at home. Oregon doesn't blow teams out of the water though in averaging 77.5 PPG. The Ducks concede 72.6, but they're even better at home. The Huskies though do play with revenge after the 76-74 home loss to Oregon as 4.5-point favorites back at the start of January, but note that Washington has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The re-match is primed to be a MUCH tighter affair in my opinion, so the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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02-08-24 | Lightning v. Islanders -135 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Islanders. The Lightning are probably the better overall team. They're 27-19-5-0 overall, but just 10-14-2-0 on the road. Tampa is now fatigued after a 3-1 loss at the Rangers just last night. The Isles won their opener in the second half in Toronto by a score of 3-2 and they face Tampa for the first time this season in a great spot and at a great price. Lay the price, the play is indeed on NEW YORK. Good luck, NP |
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02-08-24 | Mavs v. Knicks +5 | Top | 122-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Knicks. Dallas is 28-23, including 14-10 on the road, while New York is 33-18, including 19-6 in front of the home town crowd. New York was a -4.5-point favorite in a 128-124 loss at Dallas back in January, and note that the Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. And now the Knicks are back here at home as 4.5-point dogs in this revenge spot. Yes, Dallas is coming off back-to-back road wins, but over a weakened Philly and Brooklyn. With upcoming home games vs. the Thunder, Wizards and Spurs, I say the visitors get caught "looking ahead" here as well. Despite who plays, this is just such a great situational play on the home side as there are many different factors working in its favor. The outright win is clearly possible, but my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The play is NEW YORK. Good luck, NP |
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02-07-24 | Raptors v. Hornets UNDER 226.5 | Top | 123-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Raptors/Hornets. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting much more of a defensive affair here finally on Wednesday between these two Eastern-conference opponents. Toronto is just 17-33, including only 7-20 on the road, while Charlotte is 10-39, including 5-20 at home. Both teams have struggled with offensive consistency from game-to-game this year. Toronto has lost three straight, with all three games going OVER the number. Both of those outcomes though are significant to note though for us here as the Raptors have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after three or more SU losses in a row, and also in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Charlotte has now lost eight in a row after their most recent 124-118 setback to the Lakers. I had the Hornets in that one, and while they went on to cover, the total went well OVER the number. Expect a return to the norm here with lowly Toronto in town. This slower paced affair will indeed go UNDER the number once it's all said and done in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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02-06-24 | Grizzlies v. Knicks OVER 212.5 | Top | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Grizz/Knicks. Despite who is on the court playing, this one does indeed set up well from a "situational" stand point to be a much higher-scoring affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Memphis is 18-32 overall, but a much more respectable 13-14 on the road. The Grizzlies come in off five straight SU losses. Note that Memphis has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after five or more straight losses in a row. That includes a 131-91 setback at Boston last time out. The Grizzlies have also seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 after a SU/ATS road loss in which they were held to 95 or fewer points in. The Knicks just had their nine-game win streak come to an end in a 113-105 loss here at home to the Lakers. Note though that New York has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 after a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. With each team pushing the pace like I expect, all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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02-05-24 | Southern v. Jackson State -1 | Top | 72-63 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* SWAC GOY on Jackson State. Just take Jackson State on the money-line in this one. Southern is the better team, but this sets up really well for the home side. Southern is 12-9, but just 4-9 on the road. Jackson State is 8-13, but 2-1 at home. The Jaguars are off three straight SU/ATS victories, but note that Southern is in fact just 1-4 ATS in its last five after three or more SU/ATS wins in a row. The Jaguars posted the 71-70 win at Alcorn State as 2-point dogs last time out, but note as well that Southern is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS conference road win as an underdog. Jackson State has lost three straight SU/ATS after its most recent 70-62 loss to Grambling as a 2.5-point favorite. Note though that the Tigers have responded extremely well in this spot for bettors by going 4-1 ATS in their last five following three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. With back-to-back upcoming road games, tonight's contest takes on added importance for the home side, which lost this game 73-62 last year. All in all, fantastic value here on the hungrier home side. Lay the price, the play is JACKSON STATE. Good luck, NP |
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02-05-24 | Lakers v. Hornets +10.5 | Top | 124-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOW on the Hornets. Clearly, the 27-25 Lakers are the "better" team. LA though is just 9-17 on the road. The Hornets' issues are well-documented as well. They're 10-38, including 5-19 at home. Charlotte though comes in "under" the radar here after seven straight SU/ATS losses in a row. It plays with revenge as well after a 128-113 SU/ATS loss at LA in late December, and note that the Hornets are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. LA is off B2B road upsets, beating Boston 114-105, before then taking down the Knicks 113-105. This is the final game of their six-game trip and they have the defending champs at home after this. Not only is this a natural letdown spot for the visitors, but it's also a look-ahead position. Add thoese two factors together and you get "TRAP GAME." No outright, but MUCH closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is CHARLOTTE. Good luck, NP |
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02-05-24 | Avalanche v. Rangers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOW on the UNDER Avs/Rangers. These two teams were involved in several higher-scoring games before the All Star break, but I expect a much tighter and lower-scoring contest to open up the second half. Colorado is 32-14-2-1, while New York is 30-16-1-2. The Avs are 12-9-2-1 on the road, while the Rangers are 15-7 at home. The Avs went into the break on three straight victories, but that's significiant for us to take note of, as Colorado has in fact seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five after three or more straight victories in a row.'' New York closed the first half with a 7-2 win at the Senators, but note that the Rangers have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing with three or more days of rest. This is first meeting of the year between the clubs. Last year the Rangers won 2-1 in Colorado and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here. This number is high in my opinion, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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02-04-24 | Grizzlies v. Celtics OVER 219 | Top | 91-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the OVER Grizzlies/Celtics. These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs point to much more of a wide-open shootout here finally between these non-conference opponents on Sunday night in my opinion. Memphis has lost four straight. All four games went UNDER the number. The Grizz won't be lacking for motivation here. But it's Boston that actually plays with revenge after falling 102-100 at Memphis as a 12.5-point favorite back at the start of the season, and note that the Celtics have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Look for this non-conference contest to be less intense defensively than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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02-04-24 | UABÂ v. SMU -7 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* AAC GOM on SMU. UAB is 14-7 overall, including 4-3 on the road, while SMU is 14-6, including 10-2 at home. Off an 82-79 OT win at North Texas as a six-point dog though, all signs point to UAB suffering a predictable letdown here. In fact, note that the Blazers are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten following a SU/ATS conference road win as an underdog. And with a home game vs. Conference leading FAU up next, not only does this potentially set up as a letdown spot for the visitors, but also a "look ahead" spot. Add those two factors together and you get "TRAP GAME." SMU broke a two-game slide with an 80-76 win over Tulane here last time out. The Mustangs have lost three straight ATS, but that's also signficant to note as SMU is in fact 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more straight ATS losses in a row. Look for SMU to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and to easily pull away for the win and cover before the final horn sounds. Good luck, NP |
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02-04-24 | Purdue v. Wisconsin UNDER 146.5 | Top | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN TOW on the UNDER Purdue/Wisconsin. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating much more of a defensive affair here on Sunday finally. Purdue is 20-2, including 4-2 on the road, while Wisconsin is 15-5, inculding 11-1 at home. The Badgers will look to control the pace of this one from the outset. The Boilermakers have won six straight, but I'm expecting fatigue to finally be a factor here as well after their most recent 105-96 OT win over Northwestern. Wisconsin just had its three-game win streak snapped in an 80-72 OT loss at Nebraska as a one-point fav, but note that the Badgers have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five after a SU/ATS conference road loss as a favorite. With each team doubling-down on the defensive end like I expect, the UNDER is indeed the correct call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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02-03-24 | Colorado State v. Fresno State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 73-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* MW TOM on the UNDER CSU/Fresno State. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends all point to this contest being much more of a defensive affair. Colorado State is 16-5, but only 2-4 on the road, while Fresno State is just 9-11, but 7-4 at home. The Rams have seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five after pulling away for a 79-71 win over SDSU last time out. But with a home game vs. Boise State mid week, I believe the visitors will get caught looking ahead in the second half and start saving some gas for that important contest. Fresno State has lost three of its last five games after a 78-69 setback at UNLV last time out. That's five straight OVERS for the Bulldogs, but note that Fresno State has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. This is an important game for both teams and I'm expecting this sense of competition to translate into a very defensive affair once it's all said and done. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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02-03-24 | Washington State v. Washington UNDER 148.5 | Top | 90-87 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC 12 TOY on the UNDER Washington State/Washington. These two teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends does indeed make the UNDER the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion. Washington State is 15-6, but just 2-3 on the road, while Washington is 12-9, but 8-3 at home. The Cougars have won five of their last six after taking down Colorado 78-69 at home in their last matchup. With another tough game at Oregon State, followed by a game at Oregon though, I think the visitors get caught looking ahead here in the second half. I think the visitors will double down defensively here to kick off this difficult and important road trip. Washington broke a two-game slide with a 98-73 win over Utah here last time out. Note though that the Huskies have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. A bit of a shortened analysis here today, but in my estimation, the overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this contest, combined with these important ATS O/U trends does indeed make the UNDER the correct call in this PAC 12 matchup on Saturday night. Good luck, NP |
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02-03-24 | Cavs v. Spurs OVER 229 | Top | 117-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Cavaliers/Spurs. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games, but all signs point to a much higher-scoring affair this time around in my opinion. Cleveland is 13-8 on the road. It's won four straight. It's off a 108-101 win at Memphis. Look for the Cavs to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this favorable matchup, as Cleveland has hit a favorable part of its schedule, with an upcoming home game vs. Sacramento, followed by a contest in the Nation's capital vs. the Wizards. The Spurs enter off their third straight loss, a heart-breaking 114-113 setback here just last night to New Orleans. That's five straight UNDERS for San Antonio with the setback, but note that the Spurs have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last six after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Look for defense to take a back seat here in this non-conference matchup as each team pushes the pace from start to finish. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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02-02-24 | San Jose State v. Nevada OVER 142 | Top | 60-90 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* MOUNTAINWEST TOM on the OVER SJSU/Nevada. These teams have both been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a wide-open offensive affair here between these conference rivals on Friday night in my opinion. SJSU is 8-13 overall, including only 1-7 on the road, while Nevada is 16-5 overall, including 10-1 at home. The Wolfpack won't be "looking past" this opportunity, as they've now lost four of their last five following their most recent 89-55 setback at New Mexico as 8.5-point dogs. Note though that Nevada has seen the total OVER the number in eight of its last 11 off a SU/ATS conference road loss in which it was held to 55 or fewer points in. Somehow the Spartans won the last matchup as well between the clubs 81-77 in OT as four-point dogs last March. Look for this to add fuel to the fire as well for the home side. Off four straight losses, SJSU won't be lacking for motivation here as it tries to pull off another upset. I'm expecting a faster-paced affair, one that does indeed fly well OVER the posted number before the final buzzer sounds. Good luck, NP |
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02-02-24 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 221 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* NORTHWEST DIV. TOM on the OVER Blazers/Nuggets. These two teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but this one sets up well from a situational stand point to finally be more of a wide-open offensive affair in my opinion. Perhaps surprisingly, this is the first time these division rivals have played this year. This is the opener of two straight here between the clubs in fact, and because of that I do expect Denver to really pour it on here in the first game. These are two games the Nuggets can't "look past," and I believe they'll send a message here in the first one. Will that translate into a cover for the home side? That's a good question that I'm a little uncertain about, as I'm also expecting the Blazers to finally be able to move the ball and put some points on the board today as well. The Blazers are arguably playing their best basketball of the season right now after back-to-back victories as sizeable dogs, first taking down Philly 130-104,, then dispatching the Bucks 119-116 as 10.5-point underdogs. Look for Portland to carry that confidence and momentum over here and to push the pace throughout. All in all, expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is indeed on the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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02-02-24 | Heat v. Wizards OVER 229 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* SOUTHEAST DIV. TOY on the OVER Heat/Wizards. These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs point to much more of a wide-open offensive affair here between these division rivals in my opinion. Miami is 25-23, including 12-12 on the road, while Washington is 9-38, including 3-19 at home. The Heat snapped a seven-game slide with a 115-106 home win over Sacramento. Miami has seen the total go UNDER the number in three straight, but note that the Heat have in fact seen the total OVER the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. The Wizards have played to six straight UNDERS after their most recent 125-109 loss to here the Clippers last time out, but that fact has only helped in driving this particular total here tonight a few points lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion. Washington lost 121-114 in Miami at the start of the season, and the total soared OVER the posted number. I expect a similar final combined score here now as well in the Nation's capital, as note that the Wizards have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU divisional road loss vs. an opponent. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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02-01-24 | Texas-Arlington +1.5 v. Southern Utah | Top | 76-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* WAC GOM on UT Arlington. While I clearly believe UT Arlington will win this game outright, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. This is a great situational play. UT Arlington is 9-11 overall, including a lop-sided 0-9 on the road, while Southern Utah is only 8-12 overall, but 5-3 at home. These teams are clearly very evenly matched, but this one sets up great for the visitors in my opinion to snap their road futility streak. The Mavericks are off back-to-back losses, but note that they're 6-2 ATS in their last eight after three or more straight ATS setbacks in a row. Southern Utah is 3-2 in its last five SU, but 5-0 ATS. Note though that the Thunderbirds are a sub-par 2-6 ATS in their last eight after five or more straight ATS victories in a row. Look for the "hungrier" visiting side to deliver the goods, the play is indeed on UT ARLINGTON. Good luck, NP |
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02-01-24 | Lakers v. Celtics UNDER 242.5 | Top | 114-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Lakers/Celtics. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating much more of a defensive affair here finally on Thursday. LA is 25-25, but just 7-17 on the road, while Boston is 37-11, including 22-2 at home. The Lakers opened their road-trip with a 145-144 OT win at Golden State, but they've since lost two in a row at Houston and Atlanta. They play with revenge here after the 126-115 X-Mas Day loss, and note that LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. Boston is off a 129-124 home win over the Pacers. The Celtics have lost three straight against the spread, but that's significant to note here as the C's have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after three or more straight ATS setbacks in a row. With each team doubling down on the defensive end like I expect, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the correct call in this one. Good luck, NP |
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02-01-24 | NJIT v. Binghamton OVER 139.5 | Top | 66-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* AMERICA EAST TOTAL OF MONTH on the OVER NJIT/Binghamton. This one is a great situational play. NJIT is 5-14 overall, including 2-8 on the road, while Binghampton is 9-10 overall, including 6-2 at home. The Highlanders snapped a six-game losing streak with a 75-74 upset win at UMBC last time out. They've seen the total now go UNDER the number in seven straight games. That fact though has only helped in driving tonight's total a little lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion, and now off a big upset road win, look for NJIT to come in fired up here and to push the pace from the outset. Binghamton snapped a five-game slide with a 51-50 win over Maine last time out. The Bearcats have seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that Binghamton has in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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01-31-24 | Boise State +11 v. New Mexico | Top | 86-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* MW GOM on Boise State. While I'm definitely NOT calling for an outright upset, I do think this spread is definitely MUCH too large, as I expect the hungry visiting side to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Boise State is 14-6 overall, including 3-1 on the road, while New Mexico is 18-3 overall, including 11-0 at home. The Broncos are off a 90-84 OT home loss to Utah State as 2.5-point favorites, which is significant for us to take note of here, as Boise Stae is in fact 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite. New Mexico is off five straight SU/ATS victories after its most recent 89-55 home win here over Nevada, but note that the Lobos are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after five or more SU/ATS victories in a row. The bottom line here is that I feel this will be a competitive game and this home spread is absolutely inflated due to public perception. As stated off the top, no outright upset, but definitely A LOT closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, the play is BOISE STATE. Good luck, NP |
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01-30-24 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss OVER 137.5 | Top | 82-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* SEC TOTAL OF YEAR on the OVER Mississippi State/Mississippi. I'm expecting a wide-open affair between these SEC rivals, and because of that, all signs point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. Mississippi State is 14-6 overall, but 0-4 on the road. Ole Miss is 17-3 overall, including 12-0 at home. The Bulldogs have been trading wins and losses over their last fouru games. They're off a 64-58 win over Auburn as three-point dogs, which is signficant to take note of, as Mississippi State has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten off a SU/ATS conference home win as an underdog. The Bulldogs have also seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that they've seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. The Runnin Rebels have seen the total go UNDER in three straight as well after their most recent 71-68 road win at Texas A&M as 8-point underdogs, and note that Ole Miss has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. With each team pushing the pace like I anticipate, the play is indeed on the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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01-30-24 | Illinois State v. Murray State OVER 131.5 | Top | 61-59 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* MISSOURI VALLEY TOW on the OVER Illinois State/Murray State. These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to much more of a wide-open affair here in my opinion. I like betting on motivated teams when I bet "overs." Illinois State is 10-11, including 2-5 on the road, while Murray State is 8-13, including 5-6 at home. These are two teams in need of a win here. The Redbirds have seen the total go UNDER in six straight now after their most recent 58-54 loss at Evansville, but note that Illinois State has in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten after a SU/ATS conference road loss as a favorite in which it was held to 55 or fewer points in. Murray State has seen the total go UNDER in seven straight games after its most recent 60-58 loss to Southern Illinois as a 3.5-point favorite. But note that the Racers have seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. With both teams pushing the pace like I anticipate, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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01-30-24 | Lakers v. Hawks UNDER 247.5 | Top | 122-138 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Lakers/Hawks. The Lakers are just 7-16 on the road this year after their 135-119 loss at Houston just last night. LA has now seen the total go OVER in six straight games. Previous to the Houston loss, LA managed a crazy 145-144 OT win at Golden State. Now here on the second game of the back-to-back, the last thing that LA will want to do is to turn this into a "track meet" with the Hawks. Atlanta just snapped a four-game slide with a hard-fought 126-125 win over Toronto, but note that the Hawks have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. This one has UNDER written all over it. Good luck, NP |
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01-29-24 | Knicks v. Hornets +7.5 | Top | 113-92 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Hornets. While I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, everything points to a much tighter, and ultimatley closer battle than what this line is suggesting in my opinion. I just think New York will get caught looking past the hungry Hornets. The Knicks are 29-17, but just 13-12 on the road. With a home game vs. Utah tomorrow night, I expect the visitors to take the foot off the gas in the second half. The Hornets are just 10-34 this year, but after three straight SU/ATS losses, note that Charlotte is in fact 7-3 ATS in its last ten in such instances. Charlotte also plays with revenge after a 115-91 loss at New York earlier in the season, and note that the Hornets are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. Grab the points, the play is indeed on CHARLOTTE. Good luck, NP |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers UNDER 51 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOM on the UNDER Lions/49ers. I had a play on the "over" in the Lions game and a play on the "under" in the 49ers game in the Divisional Round, part of my overall 4-0 Divisional Round showing. Oddsmakers aren't giving the Lions much of a chance here. Either way, I feel that this one will be a tigher, and ultimately lower-scoring NFC Championship Game once it's all said and done. These team's haven't played since 2021, and the 49ers scored the 41-33 road victory. Now on the West Coast in San Francisco though and I'm anticipating this contest being decided in the trenches, and by field position. The team that looks after the ball in this game is the one that's going to win this contest. With each side putting an added emphasis on establishing the run and limiting what their QB has to actually do here, this one definitely has all the makings of a tighter, and lower-scoring affair. In my opinion, this number is high, so the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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01-28-24 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Ravens | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 146 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an ATS SIDE WINNER on the Chiefs. If you're watching and wagering on this game, then you know the story lines. You know the cast of characters on both sides of the field. You know the strengths and weaknesses of these teams. And if not, there are literally millions of review articles out there that can get you up to speed. The bottom line here is guys that I believe that experience really does matter here at this point. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid will never go down without a fight. Mahomes earned his first road playoff win last weekend, and he has even bigger plans for the Conference round. This matchup is going to be decided by the men under center, and while LaMar Jackson deserves to win MVP for the regular season, if I had a gun to my head and asked which QB I think is more suited to win this game at this exact second, and I'd for sure say Mahomes. Mahomes and Travis Kelce have now connected on more playoff TD's than any other combo in history. I had a play on Houston in its win over the Browns. I had a play on Baltimore last week in its victory over the Texans. I thought that CJ Stroud's inexperience would lose out to Jackson's experience at that point. And now I believe that Mahome's experience at this level will also prove to be the difference in the end here. And while I do indeed feel an outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with KANSAS CITY. Good luck, NP |
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01-28-24 | Thunder v. Pistons OVER 239 | 104-120 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Thunder/Pistons. I'm expecting a less intense defensive game here overall between these non-conference opponents this afternoon, and therefore I'm also looking for this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. OKC is off five straight victories, but with a tough game vs. the Wolves tomorrow, followed by a contest vs. the defending champs, this "gimme" takes on added importance here on the road. Expect the visitors to push the pace throughout. The Pistons lost 124-112 at OKC back in October, and note that Detroit has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of it last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. The Pistons fell 118-104 here last night to the Wizards. I had Washington in that one. I expect little defense to be played here as well, but in what I anticipate will be a faster-paced affair, all signs do indeed point to this total flying OVER the number before it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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01-27-24 | Tennessee v. Vanderbilt +14 | Top | 75-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt. No outright here, but much closer than expected in my opinion. Tennessee is 14-4 and clearly the better team, but it's just 2-2 in true road games. Vanderbilt is 5-13, but a more respectable 5-6 at home. Tennesseee is off three straight SU/ATS wins in a row, but note that the Vols are in fact just 3-6 ATS in their last nine after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row. With a home game vs. 16-3 South Carolina up next, the visitors are going to get caught looking ahead here and take the foot off the gas down the stretch. The Vols won this game 66-65 as ten-point dogs last year, and while I'm not calling for the oturight upset this time around, everything is definitely set up to be another tight and competitive battle this time around as well. Off five straight SU losses, I think the Commodores are now undervalued here at home. Grab the points, thep lay is VANDERBILT. Good luck, NP |
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01-27-24 | Bowling Green v. Toledo UNDER 157.5 | Top | 72-88 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC TOW on the UNDER Bowling Green/Toledo. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to much more of a defensive affar here this afternoon in my opinion. Bowling Green is 14-5 overall, including 3-2 on the road, while Toldeo is 12-7, and 7-2 at home. The Green Falcons had their four-game win streak come to an end last time out, falling 90-84 in OT at home to Kent as one-point favorites, and note that Bowling Green has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. Toldedo had seen the total go UNDER in three straight before its most recent 89-73 win at NIU, but with the home side doubling down defensively like I expect here at home this afternoon, I do indeed feel this number is a bit TOO high here. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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01-27-24 | Wizards +3 v. Pistons | 118-104 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Wizards. With nearly 70% of the early public money on the home side, we're going contrarian with this play. Both teams are terrible. Both are evenly matched. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'll gladly grab the points. Washington is off six straight losses, while Detroit just snapped a three-game slide with a win over Charlotte here in its most recent action. With a much more high-profile game here at home vs. the Thunder tomorrow night though, I believe the home side gets caught "looking ahead" here. Washington plays with revenge after a 129-117 home loss as a six-point favorite to the Pistons in mid January, and note that the Wizards are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. While I do think an outright is possible, let's grab the points here with WASHINGTON. Good luck, NP |
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01-26-24 | Blues v. Seattle Kraken -142 | 4-3 | Loss | -142 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP-SHELF DESTROYER on the Kraken. Here's a great spot for the Kraken. St. Louis is just 10-12-0-1 on the road, while Seattle is 10-9-2-1 at home. The Blues have won three straight, but after back-to-back rare road victories, and with a home game vs. the Kings up next, I say this is a classic letdown-look-ahead spot, which = trap game. Seattle plays with revenge after a 2-1 shootout loss in St. Louis back in October. The Kraken just snapped a four-game slide with a convincing 6-2 win over the Hawks and I say they keep that offensive momentum rolling here at home in this revenge scenario. No issues laying this mid-sized price at all, the play is indeed on SEATTLE. Good luck, NP |
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01-26-24 | Clippers v. Raptors +7.5 | Top | 127-107 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the Raptors. With nearly 75% of early public money on the Clippers, we're going contrarian with this one boys. LA is just 9-10 on the road. It's off three straight SU/ATS home wins, but note that the Clippers are just 1-3 ATS in their last four after three or more straight SU/ATS wins in a row. And with a much tougher and more high-profile game at Boston tomorrow night, not only does this set up as a "letdown" spot, but also "lookahead." Add those two factors together and you get TRAP GAME! The Raptors play with revenge here as well after a 126-120 loss at LA at the start of the month. The Raptors have now lost seven of their last eight, including three in a row both SU/ATS, but note that Toronto is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more straight SU/ATS setbacks in a row. Toronto has had three nights off to prepare fo this one and I expect it to make the most of it. Despite who is on the court tonight, this is a great situational play for the home side. Grab the points, the play is TORONTO. Good luck, NP |
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01-26-24 | Marist +2.5 v. Niagara | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Marist. The overall situation that each team finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends make the visiting side the correct call here in my opinion and while I do think an outright victory is possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Marist is 9-7 and Niagara is 9-9. The Red Foxes are 4-5 on the road, while the Purple Eagles are 3-5 at home. Marist has been trading wins/losses over its last four games. It beat Niagara 61-52 as a two-point dog in this game at home last year. Niagara has won two straight on the road as an underdog, but now back here at home, I think the Purple Eagles are the ones overvalued here. The bottom line here is that these evenly matched teams will take this one right down to the wire and whichever side has its hands on the ball last is likely going to be the victor. Because of that, I'm grabbing the points with MARIST. Good luck, NP |
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01-25-24 | Pacific +27.5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 28-76 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* WEST COAST GOY on Pacific. I'm not predicting an outright win here or anything obviously, but I do think this is WAY too many points for the home side to be giving up. Pacific is 6-14, including just 1-8 on the road, while Saint Mary's is 14-6, including 8-3 at home. The Gaels have hit a favorable part of their schedule as well. Winning though at times, has a way of leading to complacency, while losing can lead to motivation. Pacific has lost five straight, but note that the Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after five or more SU losses in a row. Pacific has lost four straight conference matchups, but did play the Dons to OT in their first conference matchup. But look for the home side to take the foot off the gas in a big way as the game comes down the stretch and for the the visiting side to keep it respectable with a decent effort down the stretch. As stated off the top, I'm not predicting an outright victory, but I do think this is a huge spread. So grab the points, the play is indeed on PACIFIC. Good luck, NP |
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01-25-24 | Nuggets v. Knicks OVER 225.5 | Top | 84-122 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the OVER Nuggets/Knicks. Neither team has been involved in many high-scoring games of late, but all signs point to those trends ending this evening in what I anticipate will be a very wide-open affair here between these non-conference opponents in the Big Apple on Thursday night. Denver is now 14-10 on the road after winning its third straight away from friendly confines. That includes a 102-100 win at Boston as well, breaking the Celtics 20-0 home streak. Note though that the Nuggets have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. And New York enters having seen the total go UNDER the number in five staright after its fourth straight win in a row, a 108-103 victory at Brooklyn. Note though as well that the Knicks have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. As stated off the top, everything points to these two teams pushing the pace from the opening tip and for this total to ultimatley eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. This number is low, the play is indeed on the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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01-25-24 | Flyers v. Red Wings UNDER 6.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-CONF TOW on the UNDER Flyers/Wings. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to much more of a defensive affair this time around in my opinion. Philadelphia is 25-17-4-2 overall, including 14-6-3-1 on the road, while Detroit is 24-18-5-0, including 12-8-4-0 at home. The Flyers will be desperate to snap a three-game slide. Philly though has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight losses in a row. Philadelphia also plays with revenge here after a crazy 7-6 shootout loss in the last matchup between the clubs back on December 22nd. Detroit had seen the total go UNDER in four straight before its most recent 5-4 loss to Dallas. Normally defense takes a back seat when these two teams collide, but the overall situation, combined with the above-listed numbers/trends, does indeed make the UNDER the correct call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion this time around. Good luck, NP |
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01-24-24 | Grizzlies v. Heat OVER 214 | Top | 105-96 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Grizz/Heat. Neither team has been involved in many high-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end in what I anticipate will turn out to be a wide-open shootout. Often, I've found, non-conference games have a way of being less intense defensively, and I expect that'll be the case here between these two hungry sides. Memphis is 16-27, but 12-12 on the road, while Miami is 24-19, including 12-8 at home. The Grizzlies got their road trip started off on the "wrong foot" with back-to-back losses in Minnesota and chicago, but they bounced back with the 108-100 win at Toronto most recently. The Grizz though play with revenge after a 108-102 home loss to the Heat at the start of the season as a two-point dog, and note that Memphis has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. The Heat are off three straight losses. That's significant to note though as Miami has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. Most recently it was a 105-87 loss at Orlando. Note though that the Heat have also seen the total eclipse the posted number in 12 of their last 18 off a SU/ATS road loss in which they were held to 89 or fewer points in. Add up all of the above factors and everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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01-23-24 | Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 230 | Top | 116-127 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* BATTLE OF LA on the UNDER Lakers/Clippers. These teams have both been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much tighter, and ultimatley lower-scoring battle on Tuesday night. LA has won three of its last four. It's seen the total go OVER in two straight after a 134-110 win here over Portland. The last time these teams played, the Lakers won by a score of 106-103 at the start of the month, and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Note that the Clippers have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent. The Clippers have won five of their last six. They've seen the total go OVER in five of their last six as well, including their most recent 125-114 win over the Nets here. With a tough upcoming seven-game road swing after this, we can expect the Clippers to double-down defensively this evening. Whenever these team's get together, there's not much love loss. All signs point to a competitive affair, but one that falls well UNDER the posted number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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01-22-24 | Bucks v. Pistons UNDER 247.5 | Top | 122-113 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* CENTRAL DIVISION TOM on the UNDER Bucks/Pistons. As primarily a situational handicapper, this one falls right into my "wheel-house." These two teams just played here two nights ago and the Bucks barely held on for the 141-135 victory. Milwaukee has now won four of its last five. It's also seen the total fly OVER the number in all four of those victories. Detroit has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU home loss vs. an opponent. The Pistons have now lost two straight again, and they've seen the total fly OVER the number in three straight, but that's signficant for us to take note of here, as Detroit has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. With each team doubling down defensively here in the rematch like we expect, all signs point to this particular matchup staying well UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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01-21-24 | Celtics v. Rockets +11.5 | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* MONEY-BOMB on the Rockets. Boston is just 12-9 on the road this year. It's also now just 20-1 at home after falling 102-100 to the Nuggets last time out. With a much more high-profile and difficult game tomorrow in Dallas though, I think this sets up as a trap for the visitors here now in Houston, as they suffer the letdown from the first home defeat, while also getting caught looking ahead to tomorrow's contest. Normally I wouldn't be playing on Houston after a 127-126 OT loss here to Utah just last night. But the Rockets were competitive in defeat. They're 20-21 overall, but 16-6 at home. It was a disappointment last night, but I still say that the home side comes to play here in this favorable spot. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I do believe for sure that the stage is set for a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, the play is HOUSTON. Good luck, NP |
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01-21-24 | Chiefs +3 v. Bills | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 125 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* DIVISIONAL RND. GOY on Kansas City. They say that revenge is a dish best served cold. However the saying goes, we like the Chiefs to use their experience and to avenge the 20-17 home loss to the Bills back on December 10th. Note that KC is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Buffalo got the better of a sub-par Pittsburgh team, but the Chiefs are an entirely different animal at this time of year. KC's defense just held the league's highest scoring offense to only 26 points, and we have a hard time seeing the Bills matching what they did last week. Give me Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs with the points in this revenge scenario. The play is indeed on KANSAS CITY. Good luck, NP |
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01-21-24 | Bucs v. Lions OVER 48 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 122 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Bucs/Lions. Both teams played to lower-scoring UNDERS to open up the playoffs, but everything points to a much more wide-open and utlimately higher-scoring game here in Detroit in the divisional around in my opinion. Tampa is only 5-4 on the road SU, but 8-1 ATS away from friendly confines. Detroit is 7-2 SU at home and 5-4 ATS. But for this one, I'm steering clear of the side and instead expecting high-scoring battle for sure. Tampa's offense was firing on all cylinders in its 32-9 destruction of the Eagles and I don't see its defense being nearly as effective on the road here. With these two starting QB's getting massive wins in the divisional round, each essentially also got a proverbial monkey off their backs as well with the victory. Look for these two confident pivots to be the main focal point in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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01-20-24 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 127 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* DIVISIONAL ROUND TOY on the UNDER Packers/49ers. I had a play on Green Bay in its blowout win over the Cowboys. I also put out a late-breaking play on the OVER in that contest. But now I'm expecting a completely opposite result here as far as the combined score is concerned here on the West Coast in the divisional round. Note that Green Bay has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four off a SU/ATS road win as an underdog. Additionally note that San Francisco has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last seven when playing with two or more weeks of rest. I think this is a great situational play. This number is high, the play is indeed on the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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01-20-24 | 76ers v. Hornets UNDER 230.5 | Top | 97-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER 76ers/Hornets. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to much more of lower-scoring one here this time around for a few different reasons. And one of the biggest reasons, is "fatigue." Each team played last night. Philly won at Orlando 124-109, while Charlotte snapped a six-game slide with a rare 124-120 win over San Antonio. The 76ers have now seen the total go OVER the number in three straight, but that's significant for us to take note of though, as Philadelphia has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. The Hornets play with revenge here after falling 135-82 here at home to the 76ers back in mid-December, but note that Charlotte has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an oppnent. This number is high in my opinion after taking into account all of the above-listed factors. The play is indeed on the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens -8.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 100 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Ravens. I had a play on Houston last week, but now the Texans and CJ Stroud are going to have to deal with another super tough defense, but this time on the road. The Texans have already exceeded expectations to this point and I think they're going to classically stumble here, now satisfied. But for LaMar Jackson and the Ravens, this year has an almost "now or never" type of feel to it. Teams that have a bye in the first week have a tremendous advantage, and that's going to be the case here for Baltimore in my estimation. The Houston defense looked poor in the win over the Browns. Overall it allowed Cleveland to go 7 of 15 on third down. The Ravens only concede 16.5 PPG, and I think Houston will now struggle to even reach that amount here on the road. Jackson has thrown three or more TD's in each of his last two games as home favorites and all signs point to another blowout. Lay the points, the play is BALTIMORE. Good luck, NP |
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01-19-24 | Nets v. Lakers OVER 226.5 | Top | 130-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Nets/Lakers. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but the overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends point to more of wide-open shootout here. Brooklyn is just 6-14 on the road, while LA is 16-7 at home. The Nets have lost four straight, and they've seen the total go UNDER in three straight. Note though that the Nets have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. The Lakers enter of two quality wins, beating Oklahoma City 112-105, and then Dallas 127-110. With another winnable game vs. Portland after this, the Lakers' offense is starting to "fire" at the correct time here to take advantage of this softer part of the schedule. The bottom line here is that we're expecting this non-conference game to feature offense, and not a lot of defense, so the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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01-19-24 | UNLV v. Colorado State -6.5 | Top | 75-78 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Colorado State. UNLV is 9-7 overall, including 2-1 on the road, while Colorado State is 14-3, including 9-1 at home. The Runnin Rebels are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three after a 68-68 upset road win at Boise State last time out. Note though that UNLV is in fact just 1-3 ATS in its last four after three or more ATS victories in a row. Colorado State snapped a two-game slide with a tighter-than-expected 78-69 OT win over Air Force in their most recent action. The Rams have now lost three straight ATS, but note that CSU is in fact a wallet-expanding 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more ATS losses in a row. Look for CSU to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the point with confidence. Good luck, NP |
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01-19-24 | Islanders v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 107 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the OVER Isles/Hawks. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs point to a wide-open shootout here finally in my opinion. Clearly, both teams are in dire need of a victory. We can expect a more wide-open pace here in this non-conference matchup though. The Isles have lost three straight and seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that NY has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. The Hawks have lost four of their last five and they've seen the total go UNDER in five straight, but note that Chicago has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. All signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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01-18-24 | Eastern Washington v. Weber State -4.5 | Top | 80-78 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG SKY GOY on Weber State. I'm expecting the home side to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion. Eastern Washington is 9-7 overall, but ust 4-7 on the road. Weber State is 11-6 overall, including 7-0 at home. The Wildcats won't be taking anything for granted here though after back-to-back upset losses as favorites on the road. They also play with revenge after falling to EWU 89-82 as 1-point favs in this contest last year. Eastern Washington has been on a role of late, winning five straight SU and nine straight ATS, but note that the Eagles are in fact just 3-6 ATS in their last nine after five or more SU victories in a row. The general betting public is all over the visitors here as well with nearly 70% of the early money on Eastern Washington. We're going contrarian here with this great "situational" play. The play is WEBER STATE. Good luck, NP |
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01-17-24 | Heat v. Raptors +2.5 | Top | 97-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Raptors. I love the way this one sets up for the home side and while I clearly believe that the Raptors can win this one outright, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Miami is 12-9 on the road, but after three straight SU/ATS victories in a row, and with a game at home vs. Atlanta after this, I say this sets up as minor letdown spot for the visitors. No such luxury for the Raptors, who are 15-25 overall and off four straight SU losses and three straight ATS losses. Toronto does indeed play with revenge here though after a 112-103 loss here to Miami as a 3.5-point favorite back in early December, and note that the Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. As mentioned above, I absolutely believe the outright win is possible, but the official call is to grab as many points as you can with TORONTO. Good luck, NP |
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01-16-24 | Iowa State v. BYU OVER 142 | Top | 72-87 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
This is a BIG 12 TOY on the OVER Iowa State/BYU. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a defensive affair here between Iowa State and BYU. Both teams are 13-3 and I'm expecting a very competitive, but higher-scoring battle in this one. Iowa State has won two straight after a 71-63 loss to Oklahoma. It's seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that the Cyclones have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERs in a row. BYU broke a two-game slide with a 63-58 win at UCF last time out. The Cougars have also seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that BYU has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. The Cougars have also seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 off a conference road win in which it held its opponent to 59 or fewer points in. With each team pushing the pace like I expect, all signs do indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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01-15-24 | Thunder v. Lakers -1 | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* BK on the Lakers. OKC is 27-11 and 11-6 on the road, while LA is 20-21 overall, but 14-7 at home. The Thunder have won four straight SU and three straight ATS, but note that OKC is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after three or more straight ATS victories in a row. And with another very difficult game tomorrow night here vs. the Clippers, this is also a "look ahead" spot for the visitors. The Lakers are just 1-2 SU in their last three, and 0-3 ATS. Note though that LA is 7-4 ATS still in its last 11 after three or more straight ATS losses in a row. Look for the desperate home side to risk life and limb to get back into the winner's circle here this evening. Lay the short points, the play is LA. Good luck, NP |
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01-15-24 | Eagles -2.5 v. Bucs | Top | 9-32 | Loss | -120 | 172 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* WC GOY on the Eagles. The Eagles stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, but they still finished 11-6. Tampa Bay qualified for the playoffs in Week 18 after holding on for a 9-0 win at Carolina (lost 23-13 here to New Orleans the week before.) Yes, there should be some concern for Eagles fans for their Super Bowl hopes, but no, I don't think at all here that they have anything to worry about vs. the Bucs. Baker Mayfield made the playoffs and a bonus and now I feel that a predictable letdown is imminent. Experience does count at this point and we can expect Jalen Hurts and company to be the ones to step up and deliver the goods. Lay the points, the play is PHILADELPHIA. Good luck, NP |
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01-15-24 | Steelers v. Bills OVER 37 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 34 h 44 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the OVER Steelers/Bills. When these teams played here on October 9th, 2022 the Bills won by a score of 38-3. While I do expect a more competitive battle here, I do think we'll see a similar final combined score in this one here on Sunday afternoon. Pittsburgh won its final three games of the season behind great offensive play, combining for 81 points over that span. We can expect that offensive play to be carried over here. Buffalo enters the playoffs as possibly the hottest team in the league after five straight wins to close things out. With Josh Allen keeping the foot on the gas like I suspect, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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01-14-24 | Suns v. Blazers OVER 231 | Top | 127-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Suns/Blazers. These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring defensive battles this season, but all signs finally point to much more of a higher-scoring battle this time around. The Suns are 19-18 now, and 9-7 on the road, while the Blazers are 10-28, including 5-11 at home. Phoenix broke a two-game slide with a 127-109 victory at the Lakers last time out. The Blazers have now lost three straight SU/ATS after their most recent 116-93 loss at Minnesota (third straight game failed to reach the century mark in scoring.) Note though that Portland has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. Portland plays with revenge after a 109-88 loss at Phoenix earlier in the season, and note as well that the Blazers have seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. When you add all of the above factors together, everything point to this contest flying OVER the posted number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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01-14-24 | Rams +3.5 v. Lions | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 149 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Rams. While I do think the Rams have a legitimate shot at winning this one outright, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. Detroit finished 12-5, while LA was 10-7. The Rams were 5-4 SU on the road, including 5-3-1 ATS. These teams offensive and defensive numbers are really similar and of course we have the "Matt Stafford" factor returning to Detroit, and Jared Goff facing his former team as well. Stafford and Goff were traded and Stafford would go on to win the Super Bowl with the Rams. Last year Stafford was injured and while he started slowly this year, he finished strong down the stretch and I think he'll be a difference-maker in this one. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is LA. Good luck, NP |
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01-14-24 | Packers +7.5 v. Cowboys | 48-32 | Win | 100 | 145 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Packers. Green Bay defied the odds and made the wildcard with 9-8 record, and it's on the road to take the 12-5 Cowboys, who are famous for their playoff futility. Jordan Love improved dramatically over the second half of the season and I think the Packers actually have a legitimate shot at this one outright. Dallas lost to Buffalo and Miami, but then bounced back to beat Detroit (20-19 as a 4.5-point fav), and then blew out Washington in Week 18, 38-10. But this improved PACKERS team comes in well "under the radar" in my opinion and while I'm not calling for the outright, all signs point to a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting. So grab the points. Good luck, NP |
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01-14-24 | Packers v. Cowboys OVER 50.5 | Top | 48-32 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Packers/Cowboys. I'm expecting a wide-open shootout. This one is going to be decided by the two men under center. The Packers started off slow, but they've turned things around behind the great play of Jordan Love. Love will be given the green light here and Dak Prescott will clearly be up for the challenge with such a high-powered offensive behind him, including the likes of star WR CeeDee Lamb. Dallas averaged 37.4 PPG at home this year. Love registered a 122.2 rating in all indoor games this year along with a 9:0 TD:INT. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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01-14-24 | Northern Iowa v. Murray State OVER 142.5 | Top | 70-60 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* MISSOURI VALLEY TOY on the OVER Northern Iowa/Murray State. These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of an offensive affair this time around in my opinion. Northern Iowa is 8-8, but just 2-4 on the road, while Murray State is only 7-9, but 5-3 at home. The Panthers have won five of their last six and despite a 67-59 win over UIC last time out, which saw them see the total UNDER the number for a fourth straight time, note that Northern Iowa has seen the total go OVER still in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Murray State has won four straight, both SU and ATS and it's seen the total go UNDER in two straight. UNI won this game 75-67 last year and I'm expecting an even higher-scoring affair this time around. All signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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01-13-24 | USC v. Colorado -9.5 | 58-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on Colorado. USC is 8-8, including just 1-3 on the road, while Colorado is 11-5, including 9-0 at home. USC is off a 72-64 loss to Washington State as a six-point favorite, and I think it'll struggle to keep pace with the Buffs down the stretch. Colorado has now lost three straight SU/ATS conference road contests, but note that the Buffs are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. Lay the number and expect a rout. The play is COLORADO. Good luck, NP |
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