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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-10-23 | Eagles v. Cowboys -3.5 | Top | 13-33 | Win | 100 | 55 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC EAST GOM on the Cowboys. These two teams are really evenly matched. In all honesty, it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these sides to win on "any given Sunday."Â But Dallas plays with revenge from a 28-23 loss at Philadelphia at the start of November, it plays at home and it's playing the better overall "football" right now (Dallas off four straight wins, including a 41-35 victory over Seattle last time out. Philadelphia is off the humbling 42-19 home loss to the 49ers.) And when you add on the fact that over 60% of the early public money is on the visitors, then all of these situational factors add up to indeed make the COWBOYS my No. 1 NFC EAST TOP SIDE play for December. Good luck, NP |
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12-10-23 | Grambling State +22.5 v. Washington State | Top | 65-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Grambling State. I'm a situational handicapper for the most part. I always look for what I feel to be undervalued, or overvalued teams based upon where the early money goes, and then I look at trends and other factor based criteria to make my decision. In this case, I think that 7-1 Washington State will get caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent today, to back-to-back neutral site games before the bulk of the conference schedule begins. Grambling State is just 2-6 SU, and 0-6 ATS. It's coming off five straight SU/ATS losses in a row, but that's significant to note here as the Tigers are in fact 8-2 ATS in their last ten after five or more ATS losses in a row. Grambling State has been a big underdog in most of its games and it's faced some stiff competion, including back-to-back road games at Troy and Dayton. This is a few too many points to be giving up now, the play is indeed on GRAMBLING STATE. Good luck, NP |
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12-10-23 | Bucs +2 v. Falcons | Top | 29-25 | Win | 100 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC SOUTH GOY on the Bucs. It's a big game, because this division is viewed as being pretty terrible, with each team still having a shot at winning it. I guess the Panthers have no chance, but certainly the 5-7 Bucs and the 6-6 Falcons are neck-and-neck right now. Tampa though plays with revenge after a 16-13 loss at home to the Falcons in October, but note that the Bucs are in fact 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Atlanta's off B2B wins, but I'm not convinced about Desmond Ridder whatsoever. The Falcons' defense has been great, but I still think Baker Mayfield will be able to move the ball today. Tampa's defensive numbers are completely comparable here and with nearly 75% of the early money on the home side, I'm definitely going contrarian. Grab the points, the play is TAMPA. Good luck, NP |
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12-09-23 | Rangers v. Capitals +1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PUCKLINE BLOOD-BATH on the Capitals. New York has been unbelievable. It's 18-5-0-1 overall, including 10-3-0-1 on the road. One area that bettors will be quick to point out that the Rangers have struggled in though is in the PUCKLINE department, going just 9-14 so far. The Capitals are only 8-14 on the PL. They're 12-8-2-1 overall though, including 7-4-1-1 at home. The Rangers get caught looking ahead to their home game vs. the red hot Kings as well tomorrow night. Great situational play here that leads to great value with WASHINGTON on the PUCKLINE option in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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12-09-23 | St. Mary's +5.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 64-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Saint Mary's. While I feel the outright win is a distinct possibility, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can here with the visiting side. The Gaels are 4-5 SU while the Rams are 9-0. CSU is ranked 13th and has already beaten Washington, Colorado, Creighton and BC. Saint Mary's snapped a two-game slide with a 70-57 win over Cleveland State last time out. The Gaels lost this game 62-60 last year as 12-point favorites. That humbling setback won't be forgotten at this point. The Rams have hit a favorable part of their schedule, but it's now Colorado State which I feel is getting too much respect from the oddsmakers. This one has "trap" written all over it. As stated off the top, I love the way this one sets up situationally for the hungry visiting side and while I do feel that the outright upset is a very real possibility, let's grab the points and expect a battle until the end. The play is SAINT MARY'S. Good luck, NP |
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12-09-23 | Army v. Navy +2.5 | Top | 17-11 | Loss | -104 | 122 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF MONTH on Navy. This year's annual battle mean's a little bit more, as each side enters at 5-6. The winner will become "eligible." In this evenly matched contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. These teams have five wins each over the last ten in the series, but this one will mean a lot to the Midshipmen after Army won 20-17 in OT last year as a 2.5-point dog. Tai Lavatai and Xavier Arline did not play in last week's blowout loss to SMU for Navy, but each is expected to be available for this one. Army last played back on November 18th, and I think the Black Knights come out flat here. In their 28-21 win over Coastal Carolina, they only attempted two passes. Navy has been pretty stout against the run, allowing 121.91 YPG. With their two senior QB's available and playing with revenge from last season, I do indeed like the MIDSHIPMEN to cover in 2023. Good luck, NP |
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12-08-23 | Illinois-Chicago v. Jacksonville State OVER 131 | Top | 55-49 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF. TOY on the OVER UIC/Jacksonville State. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games heading into this one, but I'm finally expecting some offensive fireworks this evening. UIC is 5-3, including 1-1 on the road, while Jacksonville State is 4-5, including 2-2 at home. Jacksonville State is off the 61-59 home loss to ETSU, which is significant to take note of, as the Gamecocks have responded well in this spot for OVER bettors, having seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite in which they were held to 60 or fewer points in. The Gamecocks have in fact seen the total go UNDER in all but their very first contest this year. Expect these two hungry sides to push the pace and ultimatley look for this total to blow well OVER the number as it comes down the stretch. Good luck, NP |
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12-07-23 | Patriots v. Steelers OVER 30 | Top | 21-18 | Win | 100 | 52 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC TOW on the OVER Pats/Steelers. A really low total here for a number of different reasons, but a little TOO low in my estimation. New England is 2-10. It's lost five straight, scoring 47 points combined. Last week it fell 6-0 to to the Chargers. But note that the Pats have seen the total go OVER the number in a near-perfect five of their last six after five or more straight ATS losses in a row. Pittsburgh though is 7-4. It's also coming off a loss though, falling 24-10 at home to the lowly Cardinals. These two teams combined for ten points last week, hence the super low total. New England's defense continues to be decent, but now after three straight games of putting its offense in a position to win, but only failing miserably each time, I think the unit has a major collapse finally here on the road. The Steelers are allowing 19.1 PPG, while averaging just 16. Mitch Trubisky is under center for the home side, and last week he filled in decently when QB Kenny Pickett went down with injury, finishing 11 of 17 for 117 yards and a TD. Look for great defense to set up these hungry offenses and for this total to creep OVER this super low number as the game comes down the stretch. Good luck, NP |
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12-07-23 | Kings v. Canadiens +1.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Habs on the PUCKLINE. I think Montreal on the puckline is the correct call here. The outright is of course possible, but great value here at this price in getting the extra goal-and-a-half. LA is 15-4-1-2 overall, and a very unrealistic 10-0-0-0 on the road. Hats off to the Kings, I simply don't feel this streak is sustainable much longer. LA is off the 4-3 OT win at Columbus, but with much more high-profile back-to-back games at the Isles and Rangers this weekend, not only does this set up as a natural "letdown" spot, but also a "look ahead." When you add those two factors together you invariably get "trap game!" The Habs snapped a two-game slide with a 4-2 win over Seattle here last time out and they do indeed play with revenge after a 4-0 loss at LA at the end of November (and note that Montreal is 3-1 in its last four in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent.)Â All of these situational factors collide and work in favor of MONTREAL on the PUCKLINE option this evening. Good luck, NP |
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12-07-23 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 255.5 | Top | 128-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* CENTRAL DIVISION TOM on the UNDER Pacers/Bucks. We have some crazy high totals this year in the NBA, and in my opinion, this particular one is indeed a little TOO high. Milwaukee is 15-6 and it's seen the total go OVER in four straight. Most recently it hammered new York 146-122. It lost 126-124 to the Pacers back in November at a neutral location, and note that the Bucks have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional loss vs. an opponent. Indiana is off B2B wins, including a 122-112 victory over Boston last time out. I believe we'll see a similar final combined score here as well. So while the first game did fly well OVER the number, the rematch here finally sets up as more of a defensive battle in my opinion. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-06-23 | Hornets v. Bulls UNDER 223 | Top | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Hornets/Bulls. Both teams have been playing to several high-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening. Charlotte is just 6-12, while Chicago is only 7-14. These teams need a victory here and I'm expecting each to double down on the defensive end. Chicago has now won two straight, and while it has seen the total go OVER in five straight, note that the Bulls have in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row. Look for the competitive nature of this game to help in driving this one UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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12-06-23 | Massachusetts v. Towson +3 | Top | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* MASTERPIECE on Towson. Here's a great early season "situational" play. Massachusetts is 4-1 this year, but now finally hits the road for its first true road game here. Towson is 3-5 so far, but 2-0 at home. I think the home floor advantage really will matter here. The Tigers have played the tougher competition to this point as well. While I do think an outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with TOWSON. Good luck, NP |
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12-06-23 | Manchester City v. Aston Villa UNDER 3 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 110 | 49 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL TOM on the UNDER City/Villa. Manchester City is coming off three straight draws. I'm expecting another competitive battle this weekend hereon the road at Aston Villa, but I think it'll be a lower-scoring "war of attrition." This is a battle between two of the best, and I believe the intense competition will translate into a very defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring wide-open shootout etc. Last week Aston Villa came from behind to draw 2-2 with Bournemouth, a result which saw them snap a four-game win streak across all competitions. A defeat here vs. City will see Villa slip to sixth and out of a Champions League spot, but a return home after two straight on the road, is just what the doctor ordered as they've won 17 of their last 18 home matches across all competitions. In my opinion, this one sets up to be a lower-scoring UNDER once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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12-05-23 | Devils v. Canucks UNDER 7 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOW on the UNDER Devils/Canucks. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to more of a defensive affair in my opinion here. New Jersey is just 11-10-1-0, while Vancouver is 16-8-1-0. The Devils have seen the total go OVER the number in five straight now after a 6-3 home loss to the Sharks. Off that embarrassing defensive effort, clearly New Jersey will be looking to double down defensively here to kick off this difficult Western swing, but also note that the Devils have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. Vancouver starts an important and difficult five-game home stand here. This one has the feel of a very defensive affair, so the play is indeed on the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-04-23 | Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 240.5 | Top | 112-122 | Win | 100 | 36 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Celtics/Pacers. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening. Boston is 15-4 and Indiana is 10-8. Boston is coming off three straight victories and it's seen the total go OVER in two straight. Indiana plays with revenge after falling 155-104 at Boston back on November 1st, and that's significant to note here as the Pacers have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. The Pacers are coming off B2B high-scoring affairs as well on the road in Miami, but now back here at home, I'm finally expecting more of a defensive effort. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-03-23 | Avalanche v. Kings -125 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Kings. This one sets up well for LA from a number of different angles. First off, the Avs aren't playing that great right now, as they lost their second straight road game in extra time last night, falling 4-3 in a shootout at Anaheim. Now playing the second game of the back-to-back and with a rematch vs. Anaheim at home on Tuesday, not only does this set up as a natural letdown spot for the visitors, but also a "look ahead." And when you add those two factors together, you invariably get a "trap game." LA though also plays with revenge after falling 5-2 here at home to the Avs back in October. Look for the well-rested home side to deliver the goods and as Bob Barker used to say as well: "The Price Is Right!"Â The play is the KINGS. Good luck, NP |
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12-03-23 | Eastern Kentucky +4.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 69-79 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* BATTLE on Eastern Kentucky. Here at the Diddle Arena, I'm expecting a battle until the end. EKU is 3-2 and WKU is 5-3. EKU is off the 77-76 win over Troy. It averages 91.2 PPG, while allowing 75.8. WKU is averaging 81.1 PPG, while allowing 74.4.  This really is a case of this being a bad matchup for the Hilltoppers. Look for EKU's faster-pace and high-scoring ways to keep it competitive in this contest late. Grab the points, the play is EKU. Good luck, NP |
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12-03-23 | Chargers v. Patriots OVER 40 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC TOW on the OVER Chargers/Patriots. At 2-9, the Patriots are out of the running for a playoff spot, while the 4-7 Chargers are still mathematically in the conversation. Regardless, two teams that have nothing to lose but another game collide here and I think we'll see some offensive fireworks. The Patriots stink and their QB issue remains a problem. New England has lost four straight, and it's seen the total go UNDER in three straight. New England though has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. LA is off three straight losses of its own, which is also significant to note in this case as the Chargers have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. With each team opening things up offensively like I anticipate, all signs point to this one flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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12-03-23 | Broncos v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 71 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC NON-DIV GOM on the Texans. Houston is now 6-5 after a tough 24-21 home loss here to Jacksonville last weekend. Previous to that the Texans had won three in a row. I think the home side gets back on track here this weekend in another tough matchup. At one point this year the Broncos lost 70-20 to Miami, but now the Broncos enter on a five-game win streak (4-1 ATS.)Â It's Denver that's now the over-rated team here. Completely overlooked by the oddsmakers and most of the public to this point, they majority of the early public money sees them backing the "flavor of the week" and grabbing the points. But Denver is 3-6 ATS in its last nine after five or more SU victories in a row. Look for Houston rookie CJ Stroud to put the pressure on Russell Wilson and for the home side to eventually pull away for the comfortable win and cover. The play is HOUSTON. Good luck, NP |
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12-02-23 | Michigan -23 v. Iowa | Top | 26-0 | Win | 100 | 102 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN GOM on Michigan. With a spread and a total like this, what are the oddsmakers trying to tell us? If you're wagering on this game, then you almost assuredly know the storylines for each team heading into this one, the cast of characters on each side, and their strengths and weaknesses. And if you don't know, then just go quickly read an ESPN article on this game, and then come back to my succinct opinion on why I believe that the Wolverines are going to trash the Hawkeyes today. With a spread like this, clearly, no one is giving Iowa a chance. However, early money has nearly 70% of the action on the underdog here. They also don't think this is going to be a very high-scoring game with an O/U like this. So they don't think Iowa will put many, if ANY points on the board in this one. The Hawkeyes are no joke. Their defense is fantastic. But I just don't see the Wolverines slipping up here. In fact, I'm expecting them to put on a show. JJ McCarthy has only thrown four INTs this season, and he didn't have any in last week's win over Ohio State. This Michigan team looks after the football and is just damn efficient in all phases. Iowa doesn't stand a chance here, so lay the points with confidence. The play is MICHIGAN. Good luck, NP |
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12-02-23 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 112-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* PACIFIC DIV. TOM on the UNDER Warriors/Clippers. These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating more of a defensive battle here in what is in fact the second game of a back-to-back matchup. Golden State is 9-9 and LA is 8-10 after the Warriors at home vs. the Clippers two nights ago by a score of 120-114. Note that LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent. With the shift in venue, expect a much more defensive affair. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-02-23 | CS-Northridge v. Northern Colorado -3.5 | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* BK on Northern Colorado. I like the way this one sets up for the home side. CSU Northridge is 5-3, while Northern Colorado is 3-4. The Bears are 2-1 at home. They're off a tight 74-72 loss as 4.5-point dogs at San Diego last time out. They've faced some stiff competition, including Colorado State and New Mexico State. The same can't be said for the Matadors, who somehow pulled off the 80-69 upset road win at Pacific last time out (but note that they're just 3-6 ATS in their last nine off a SU/ATS road win as a dog vs. an opponent.) These teams played last year and Northern Colorado won 70-63 on the road. Now at home here in 2023, I think we'll see an even bigger blowout this time around. Lay the points, the play is NORTHERN COLORADO. Good luck, NP |
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12-02-23 | Manchester United v. Newcastle United -104 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL GOY on Newcastle. Manchester United is 8-5. It's coming off a mid-week Champions league loss. Newcastle is one spot ahead of the visiting side sitting at 7-4. Newcastle is also off a mind-week Champions league loss. If recent history is any precedence, then the Magpies have to be liking their chances to rebound here in regulation, as they've won the last two in this series. They've also won six of the last seven here at St. James Park. Newcastle does have a plethora of injuries, but so to does Manchester United. All things being equal, this one is in fact not equal whatseover in my estimation. This play is all about "perceived value," of which I feel we're getting a TON of here at this price. Lay the price, the play is indeed on NEWCASTLE. Good luck, NP |
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12-02-23 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -12.5 | Top | 21-49 | Win | 100 | 143 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 GOM on Texas. The Big 12 Championship game features two really good teams, but one's a lot better than the other. And that's why we have a really big spread here. There are a lot of implications for each side here, but the biggest one is that if Texas wins this game, then it'll be on the short-list for a CFP spot. If you're wagering on this game, you likely already know the cast of characters on each team and the strengths and weaknesses from each side. Texas probably doesn't deserve a spot in the CFP, but I do think it can get the job done here. I just can't see the Cowboys keeping pace down the stretch. The Longhorns lost to OKST last year by a score of 41-34 as 6.5-point favorites, and that fact also leads me to believe that they'll keep the foot on the gas here from start to finish. In my opinion, this will turn out to be a rout once it's all said and done. Lay the points, the play is TEXAS. Good luck, NP |
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12-01-23 | Grizzlies v. Mavs OVER 228.5 | Top | 108-94 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Grizz/Mavs. Memphis is 4-13, as it awaits the return of beleaguered star Ja Morant. It broke a four-game slide with a 105-91 win over Utah last time out and it'll look to keep the momentum rolling here, while also trying to avenge a 125-110 home loss to Dallas back on October 30th. That game flew well OVER the posted number, and I'm expecting a similar faster-paced affair here as well (note as well that the Grizz have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.)Â Dallas is 11-6 and it's been trading wins and losses over its last four games. Off a 121-115 win over Houston, it'll now look to snap that pattern here and keep the foot on the gas offensively for a second straight game. With each team pushing the pace like I anticipate, the sharp move as far as the total is concerned in my opinion is indeed on the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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12-01-23 | Liberty v. College of Charleston +5.5 | Top | 67-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOW on Charleston. The 6-1 Liberty Flames are getting a little TOO much respect from the oddsmakers now in my opinion. The Cougars though come in off a momentum-building 84-78 win over Kent State. So far Charleston averages 71.8 PPG, while allowing 74.8. Liberty is off its first loss of the season, falling 83-58 at FAU as a 7.5-point underdog. And with nearly 85% of the early public money backing the home side, we're going to definitely go contrarian with this wager. I think the hungry COUGARS keep it super tight until the final moments, so grab the points. Good luck, NP |
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11-30-23 | Creighton v. Oklahoma State +8 | Top | 79-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* CBB UNDERDOG TOP SIDE on Oklahoma State. Creighton is 4-1. While they've played two neutral site tournament games, the Blue Jays have yet to play a true road game this year. This is the first. Oklahoma State is 3-3 this year, including 3-1 at home. The Cowboys are coming off B2B blowout wins, posting 188 points in the process. Look for Oklahoma State's offense to be a difference-maker here at home. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is OKLAHOMA STATE. Good luck, NP |
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11-30-23 | Seahawks +9.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 35-41 | Win | 100 | 35 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* GOW on the Hawks. This game means a lot for both teams, but more so for Seattle, which is 6-5 and barely holding on to the sixth playoff spot. Dallas is 8-3 and sitting one spot ahead of the Hawks for fifth spot. Seattle lost a key game 31-13 to the 49ers last week, and with a date vs. San Francisco after this, this almost becomes a "must win," "do-or-die" type of game for the Hawks. Seattle is so far averaging 20.8 PPG, while allowing 22.6. The Cowboys rolled to a 45-10 win over Washington last week. The Cowboys are averaging 31.5 PPG, while allowing 16.8. Seattle is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series, and while I'm stopping short in calling for an outright upset, everything points to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, the play is SEATTLE. Good luck, NP |
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11-30-23 | Hornets +8.5 v. Nets | Top | 129-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BK on Charlotte. I think Charlotte catches the Nets at the right time here. Brooklyn comes in off three straight victories, but note that it's just 2-7 ATS in its last nine off three SU wins in a row. And with red hot Orlando coming to town next, the chances of the home side "looking ahead" are high as well. Charlotte does indeed play with revenge after the 133-121 setback as a two-point home dog on October 30th. Note though that the Hornets are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a dog vs. an opponent. Off three straight ATS losses in a row, I think the hungry visiting side will, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover with the large spread that it's been afforded. Grab the points, the play is CHARLOTTE. Good luck, NP |
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11-29-23 | CS-Northridge v. Pacific -2.5 | Top | 80-69 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Pacific. CSU Northridge is 4-2, but after two straight road victories, I'm expecting it to take a step back here finally. Pacific is 4-1 overall, but 0-4 ATS in its last four. Expect that lop-sided number to change here though in this favorable home matchup. The Matadors are off the 84-48 blowout win over Mississippi Valley State and so far average 80.2 PPG, while allowing 70. Pacific avoided a near-disaster by holding on for a 68-65 OT win over Mississippi Valley State. The Tigers are averaging 67.4 PPG, while allowing 73.7. Look for the Matadors to finally take a step back here and for PACIFIC to play a full four-quarters. Lay the points. Good luck, NP |
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11-28-23 | Golden Knights v. Oilers -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Oilers. I think this is a great situational wager. Las Vegas has lost four in a row. Normally I wouldn't want to play against the defending champs in this spot, but they're off a tough 2-1 OT loss in Calgary just last night, and I think they'll stumble here in the second game of the back-to-back, before finishing this tough road trip vs. the Canucks two nights from now. Edmonton is in "catch up" mode after a terrible start to the season. The Oilers have won two in a row though, including an 8-2 victory over the Ducks last time out and there's no reason not to think this underachieving Canadian team won't keep that momentum rolling here in front of the home town crowd. The Oilers can smell the blood in the water and they'll be itching to put on a show for the home town faithful. All things considered, this is the very definition of "great line value" in my opinion. The play is EDMONTON. Good luck, NP |
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11-27-23 | Pelicans v. Jazz OVER 229.5 | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE TOW on the OVER Pelicans/Jazz. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening. New Orleans has seen the total go UNDER in four straight after its three-game win streak was snapped here two nights ago in a 105-100 loss as a 3.5-point favorite. Note though that the Pels have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Utah snapped a four-game slide with the victory and it's now seen the total go UNDER in three straight games. Note though that the Jazz have seen the total go OVER in three of its last four after playing to three or more staright UNDERS in a row. With New Orleans on the war-path here looking to avenge the latest setback, I'm expecting a faster pace overall in the rematch. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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11-27-23 | Northern Illinois v. Northwestern -11.5 | Top | 67-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE CBB GOW on Northwestern. NIU is 5-1 and Northwestern is 4-1. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS after dispatching DePaul 89-79 as a 3.5-point dog last time out. NIU has quickly become a fan favorite, but now I think it's getting too much respect here. Northwestern has faced some stiff competition. Last time out it was a 3.5-point dog and it lost 66-57 to Mississippi State in a tourney game. With Purdue coming to town next, the Wildcats can't afford to look past this opportunity. Look for NIU's perfect ATS run to finally come to an end here, as Northwestern's superior play on both ends of the court will prove to be too much for the visiting side to keep up to. Lay the points, the play is Northwestern. (additional analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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11-27-23 | Troy State v. Eastern Kentucky -5 | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ATS BLOWOUT on Eastern Kentucky. Troy is 3-3 adn EKU is 2-2. The Trojans are off the 80-67 win over Grambling State. Overall Troy averages 86.5 PPG. EKU is going to be the "hungrier" team here though after back-to-back losses. Most recently it was a 76-64 loss to Prairie View A&M last time out. Despite the losses though, note that the Colonels are still averaging 94.8 PPG this year. These are two .500 teams, but EKU has a major advantage at home. Look for the Colonels pace to be too much for the Trojans to keep up with down the stretch. Lay the points, the play is EKU. Good luck, NP |
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11-26-23 | Bulls +4 v. Nets | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE GOM on the Bulls. As primarily a situational handicapper, this is one of the types of "situations" that I'm always keeping my eyes out for. I love the way this one sets up for struggling and revenge-minded Chicago. With 80% of the public money on Brooklyn, of course, as a contrarian as well, I instantly gravitate towards Chicago in that situation. But Brooklyn is also off a highly satisfying 112-97 win here just last night over Miami and I think it'll now come out flat-footed here in the second game of the B2B. No such luxury for Chicago, which has lost three in a row SU/ATS after a 121-108 loss at Toronto last time out. Note though that the Bulls are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. They fell 109-107 at home to Brooklyn back at the start of the month as 4.5-point favorites, but note that Chicago is also 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. A great "situational" play makes the BULLS my 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE GOM. Good luck, NP |
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11-26-23 | Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 43 | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
10* OVER Chiefs/Raiders (AFC WEST TOY) Both teams have played to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to come to an end here this evening. KC is 7-3, including 3-1 on the road. The Chiefs though have now played to six straight UNDERS after last week's 21-17 home loss to the Eagles in the Super Bowl rematch. Note though that KC has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. Las Vegas is 5-6. It's 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in its last three. The Raiders are playing a lot better over the last month, and despite now having seen the total go UNDER in four straight, note that the Chiefs have in fact still seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. The Raiders two-game win streak did come to an end last time out as well in the 20-13 setback at Miami. With both teams looking to bounce back off losses in this important contest, and when taking into account the rest of the stats and situational factors listed above, everything in my opinion does indeed point to this one eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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11-26-23 | Browns v. Broncos OVER 36.5 | Top | 12-29 | Win | 100 | 26 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Browns/Broncos. Here's a great situational play. Cleveland is 7-3 and it's won three in a row. It's defied the odds and gotten great defensive play, combined with great special teams play. Denver is 5-5 now after winning four straight. The Broncos have seen the total go UNDER in five straight, but note that Denver has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. These are the two hottest teams in the league right now and I expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. (more analysis available) Good luck, NP |
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11-25-23 | California v. UCLA OVER 50.5 | Top | 33-7 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC 12 TOM on the OVER Cal/UCLA. UCLA is 7-4. It beat Colorado 28-16, but then lost its next two games, before getting back on track in last wee's 38-20 upset win at USC. The Bruins though have seen the total go UNDER the number in five straight, but note that UCLA has in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. And for 5-6 Cal, its now or never. Do or die. The Golden Bears have kept their bowl hopes alive the last two weeks by winning both games over WSU and last week at Standford by a score of 27-15. Note that while last week's total did go UNDER the number, Cal had in fact seen the total go OVER the number in five straight previous to that. Look for these two teams to push the pace and expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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11-25-23 | Hawks v. Wizards UNDER 248.5 | Top | 136-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Hawks/Wizards. Both teams have been involved in several high-scoring games this year, including against each other the last time they squared off, but everything finally points to more of a defensive affair in my opinion. Washington is just 2-13 after last night's 131-128 road loss at Milwaukee. Fatigue here in the second game of the back-to-back plays a factor for me here for Washigton. Atlanta has had a couple nights off after a 147-145 OT win over Brooklyn, but note that the Hawks have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. (more analysis available) Good luck, NP |
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11-25-23 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Kings | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUCKLINE BLOWOUT on the Canadiens. Montreal has won two straight on the road, including a 3-2 shootout victory last night in San Jose. I think the surging Habs catch the Kings at the right time here. LA is no doubt the early surprise team, entering off four straight wins and 12-3 overall, including a 5-2 victory at Anaheim last night. LA has three whole nights off after this though before another home game, and I think it gets caught "looking ahead" here. In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm grabbing the CANADIENS on the PUCKLINE option. (additional analysis available) Good luck, NP |
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11-25-23 | Evansville v. SE Missouri State +6.5 | Top | 93-74 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Southeast Missouri State. Evansville is 5-0 SU/ATS, but off an 85-77 OT win over Chattanooga last night, I think the Purple Aces will have a difficult time covering this spread vs. Southeast Missouri State, which plays with revenge after a 76-57 loss at home to Evansville two weeks ago. The Redhawks snapped their three-game slide to open the season with a 70-68 win over Central Arkansas last time out, and they're 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Round 2 is going to be a lot closer, so grab the points with Southeast Missouri State. (more analysis available) Good luck, NP |
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11-25-23 | Ohio State v. Michigan OVER 46.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 45 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN TOW on the OVER Ohio State/Michigan. Clearly it's a big game. Both teams enter at 11-0 and a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game, followed by a trip to the CFP is on the line here. The last time these teams got together, Michigan won 45-23 as a nine-point dog on the road on November 26th of last season. This is the lowest total between the teams in the last five years. Note that the OVER has in fact hit nine times in a row between these teams. These are two tough defenses, but these offenses still average over 30 points per game each. Look for this one to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. (additional analysis available) Good luck, NP |
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11-24-23 | Nuggets -2.5 v. Rockets | Top | 86-105 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Nuggets. Houston is 7-6, while Denver is 10-5. The Rockets snapped a three-game slide with a 111-91 win at Memphis last time out. But after ten straight ATS covers in a row, I think the home side is getting too much respect here vs. the defending champs, who do indeed play with revenge here after falling 107-104 as five-point favorites in mid-November (but note that Denver is 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.) Denver is just 1-3 on this road trip. It won't be taking anything for granted tonight. I foresee a blowout of epic proportions. Lay the points, the play is DENVER. Good luck, NP |
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11-24-23 | UTSA v. Tulane OVER 51.5 | Top | 16-29 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* AAC TOY on the OVER UTSA/Tulane. This is a big game, and I believe the intense focus that each side brings to this one will translate into offensive production on the field of play. UTSA is 8-3 and on a seven-game win streak after a 49-21 home win over USF last week. Frank Harris had 411 yards and three TD passes, while also rushing for 112 yards and three more scores on the ground. Expect him to push the pace here as well. Tulane is 10-2 and an on a nine-game win streak. The Green Wave have seen the total go UNDER the number in three straight after last week's 24-8 win at FAU, but note that Tulane has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Last week QB Michael Pratt had 252 yards passing and three TDs. There will be opportunities for great field position as well with anticipated great defensive play from each side. When you add it all up, this one will fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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11-24-23 | Dolphins v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 50 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC EAST TOM on the OVER Dolphins/Jets. This is the first ever Black Friday NFL game and I'm expecting this one to eclipse the posted number as it comes down the stretch as far as the toal is concerned. Miami is 7-3, while New York is 4-6. The Jets now turn to QB Tim Boyle to right the ship. The offense has no where to go but up, as NY has scored just one TD combined over three games this month. Boyle is known for throwing INT's, which will only set up this dangerous Miami offense with lots of great field position. Miami is just 1-3 ATS in its last four and that's why I'm steering clear of the side, but note that the Fish are still averaging 30.5 PPG this year, which is ranked No. 1. Expect this faster-paced affair to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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11-24-23 | Brown v. Delaware UNDER 141.5 | Top | 59-67 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Brown/Delaware. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to open the season, but I think this Tournament game finally sets up as more of a defensive battle. Brown is 1-4, while Delaware is 4-0. The Bears have seen the total fly OVER the number in three straight, but note that Brown has in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Delaware is off the 78-67 win over Delaware State, and whiel that total did eclipse the smaller number, note that the Blue Hens previous three contests all went UNDER the number. All signs point to a much more defensive battle than what this O/U line is suggesting in my opinion. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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11-24-23 | TCU +10 v. Oklahoma | Top | 45-69 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 GOW on TCU. I'm a "situational" handicapper at hear, and this one falls right into my wheelhouse. There are a lot of external things going on in this contest, and when you take into account all of the different factors, I do definitely feel we're getting great value here by grabbing the points. First off, TCU is 5-6. This is it. The odds are against it here facing the 9-2 Sooners, but clearly the Horned Frogs won't be rolling over. And for Oklahoma, it barely held on for the 31-24 win at BYU last week as a 24-point favorite. I had BYU in that one. The Sooners though could easily be distracted here, as they'll need either Texas or Oklhoma State to falter this week to get a chance at the conference championship game. And they're both double-digit home favorites. It's not going to happen, and so I absolutely wonder where the energy levels for the home side will be at in this one, despite it being Seniors night. Regardless, in a contest that I see being much more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, I'm grabbing the points with TCU. Good luck, NP |
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11-23-23 | 49ers v. Seahawks +7 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC WEST GOY on the Hawks. Seattle is 6-4 and second the AFC West, trailing the 49ers. Seattle is off the 17-16 loss to the Rams. The Hawks though have been trading good outings with bad ones over their last four games and I say that pattern continues here at home on the short week and the national stage. San Fran snapped a three-game slide with back-to-back wins now, but with a game at Philadelphia up next, followed be a home rematch vs. the Hawks, will the 49ers get caught a little unprepared here on the short week, on the road and with so much to look forward to?! The possibility is definitely there. They say that divisional contests always mean the most and that they almost always mean the most to the home side. Look for the hungry HAWKS to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door here at home with the healthy spread that they've been afforded on Thanksgiving night. Good luck, NP |
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11-23-23 | Boise State +2.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 75-82 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Boise State. This is the final game of the opening day of play at the ESPN Events Invitational. Virginia Tech is 3-1 after a 98-76 win over Wofford at home. Boise State is 2-1 SU after falling 85-68 to Clemson in its most recent action. So far in the early going the Hokies are averaging 83.8 PPG, while allowing 63.5. The Broncos are averaging 73.3 PPG, while allowing 66. Virginia Tech's wins have come over nobodies. In the one game they lost to South Carolina (at a neutral court), they were favored by 6.5. Boise State has already faced two tough teams in San Francisco and Clemson and I say it's the Broncos who should in fact be favored here. Grab the points, the play is indeed on BOISE STATE. Good luck, NP |
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11-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State +10 | Top | 17-7 | Push | 0 | 31 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* SEC GOM on Mississippi State. I'm banking on the 5-6 Bulldogs digging deep and, at the very least, keeping this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Ole Miss is 9-2 and in second place in the SEC West Division. Ole Miss hammered Louisiana-Monroe 35-3 last week, after getting smashed 52-17 to Georgia the week before. Ole Miss averages 36.5 PPG, while allowing 23.7. While the Rebels are 6-4-1 ATS overall this year, they're 0-2-1 ATS over their last three. Mississippi State is 1-6 in SEC games. The oddsare are against the Bulldogs here, but they won't be rolling over. After losing three straight they bounced back in fine form last week with a 41-20 win over Southern Miss. Overall Ole Miss has averaged 23.2 PPG, while allowing 27.5. The Egg Bowl has been decided by ten points or less in five of the last six in the series, and in my opinion all signs point to this pattern continuing. Grab the points, the play is MISSISSIPPI STATE. Good luck, NP |
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11-22-23 | Canucks v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 37 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Nucks/Avs. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening. Colorado is 11-6-0-0 and Vancouver is 13-5-1-0. This is the first game of the year between the clubs. The Canucks will, in my estimation, double down on the defensive end here after last night's 3-1 win at home over san Jose. Previous to that Vancouver had seen the total go OVER in five straight. Colorado saw its three game win streak come to an end in a 4-3 loss at Nashville last night. The Avs also come in tired here and I believe that this one definitely sets up as more of a "war of attrition," where each side sits back and waits for the other to make the first mistake. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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11-22-23 | Clippers v. Spurs +9 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BOOKIEKILLER on the Spurs. The Clippers are 5-7 and 1-6 on the road, while the Spurs are 3-11, including 1-7 at home. Two bad teams collide here, but I think San Antonio will put up a good fight and cover easily with the large spread that it's been afforded. San Antonio though does in fact play with double revenge here after losing 124-99 here to the Clippers two nights ago, as well as a 123-83 setback in LA back on October 29th. The Clippers return home after this for three straight, and I think they get caught looking ahead. Look for the revenge-minded home side to post, at the very least, the comfortable ATS cover. The play is SAN ANTONIO. Good luck, NP |
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11-22-23 | Ole Miss -3 v. Temple | 77-76 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Ole Miss. Ole Miss is 4-0 and Temple is 3-1. The Rebels survived a scare last time out by holding off Sam Houston 70-67, but now I expect them to be "on point" here after that near disaster. The Owls are 1-1 at home, losing 78-73 to Columbia last time out. As soon as Temple played someone half decent, it completely crumbled. It was a 12.5-point favorite over Columbia, but it got crushed. Ole Miss hasn't faced anyone difficult yet either, but it'll have its opportunities here from range finally, and I expect it to dominate in the paint as well. Lay the points, the play is OLE MISS. Good luck, NP |
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11-21-23 | Eastern Michigan +5.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 24-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC GOW on EMU. The big storyline here is that EMU is 5-6 and can become bowl eligibile with one more victory. The Eagles kept their hopes alive with a 30-27 win at home over Akron last weekend, setting up this pivotal contest. The 3-8 Bulls can only play spoiler here, despite being the ones that are in fact favored in this game. They're off three straight SU/ATS losses and I expect EMU QB Austin Smith to take advantage of this weak home side defense. While I do believe the outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab the points with EMU. Good luck, NP |
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11-21-23 | Syracuse +12.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 57-76 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOURNEY PLAY on Syracuse. The Orange are 3-1 and the Bulldogs are 2-1. Syracuse though is 0-4 ATS, while Gonzaga is 1-1. This is the consolation part of the bracket for the Maui Invitational. Syracuse suffered its first SU loss of the season last time out by falling 73-56 to Tennessee, but note that the Orange are 3-1 ATS in their last four after a SU/ATS loss as an underdog. Gonzaga also lost its first game of the year in a 73-63 setback to Purdue. Syracuse has the personel to stretch this Zags defense and while I'm stopping short in calling for the outright upset, I do see the backdoor being left open for the hungry underdogs to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is SYRACUSE. Good luck, NP |
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11-20-23 | Flames v. Seattle Kraken UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Flames/Kraken. Both teams have been involed in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening. Calgary is 6-8 after a 5-4 shootout home loss to the Isles. It beat the Kraken 6-3 earlier in the season, but note that Seattle has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four in trying to avenge a loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. The Kraken have won two in a row and are now 7-8. They've seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that Seattle has also seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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11-20-23 | Eagles +3 v. Chiefs | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SIDE ROUT on the Eagles. KC won the Super Bowl last year vs. the Eagles, but Philadelphia has had this one circled on its calendar since then. Both teams have looked great this year, but Philadelphia overall has looked like it has played with a lot more chemistry to this point. Revenge plays a big part in me taking this pick. It's not the Super Bowl. It's not the Playoffs. It's a BIG game, but it's one which I see coming "right down to the wire." I'm grabbing the points, the play is PHILADELPHIA. Good luck, NP |
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11-20-23 | Heat v. Bulls OVER 208.5 | Top | 118-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-CONF TOW on the OVER Heat/Bulls. Here's a great situational spot bet. Miami is 8-5 and the Bulls are 5-9 after Chicago's 102-97 victory in the opener of this two game series here in the Windy City. Note though that Miami has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite vs an opponent. Chicago looks to keep the foot on the gas now after snapping a three-game slide and the fact that it's seen the total go UNDER in four straight has only helped in driving this total a little lower than it normall would/should be as well. As stated off the top, a great "situational" play on the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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11-20-23 | Bucks v. Wizards +9.5 | 142-129 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SIDE DESTRUCTION on the Wizards. This is a great situational play. Milwaukee is clearly the better team at 9-4. The Wizards just 2-10, including only 1-4 at home. But the Bucks are just a mediocre 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road. The Bucks are coming off four straight SU wins and three straight ATS victories, but with a much more high-profile game at East-leading Boston on Wednesday, not only does this set up as a "letdown" spot for the visitors, but also a "look-ahead," which when you add those two factors together you invariable get a "trap game." Look for the hungry home side to hang around late and to, at the very least, earn the comfortable cover. Grab the points, the play is WASHINGTON. Good luck, NP |
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11-20-23 | NC-Wilmington v. Murray State +6 | 83-81 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ATS BLOWOUT SUPER WINNER on Murray State. Murray State is 2-1 and UNC Wilmington is 3-0. These early season Tournament games are always interesting. With nearly 80% of the money on the Seahawks though, I definitely feel that we're getting great value here on the Raers, who enter off the 86-81 loss to WKU. While I do feel an outright win is possible, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with MURRAY STATE. Good luck, NP |
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11-19-23 | Suns v. Jazz UNDER 240.5 | Top | 140-137 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Jazz/Suns. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting more of a defensive affair here finally. Phoenix is 6-6 after its 131-128 win here two nights ago. Note though that Utah has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a dog vs. an opponent. Look for the second straight game here to be a lot more defensive-minded overall. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. (more analysis available) Good luck, NP |
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11-19-23 | Raiders v. Dolphins OVER 45.5 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC TOM on the OVER Raiders/Dolphins. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here finally on Sunday. Las Vegas is 5-5 and Miami is 6-3. The Raiders made some changes out of necessity and they've won two straight. They've seen the total go UNDER the number in two straight, but note that Las Vegas has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. The road ahead for the Raiders is a brutal one, with KC, Minnesota and the Chargers at home up next, followed by another game at KC. It's do or die, now or never for the visitors. Miami has had a week off after its 21-14 loss to KC, but with a week off to prepare and plan, I'm expecting the Fish to keep the foot on the gas offensively from start to finish. A great situational play on the OVER. (more analysis avaialble) Good luck, NP |
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11-19-23 | College of Charleston -7.5 v. Coastal Carolina | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER BLOWOUT on Charleston. This is the seventh-place game in the Myrtle Beach Invitational. Both teams are 0-2 so far in this tournament, but Charleston is the more battle-tested and I'm expecting its offense to be too much for the Chanticleers to handle down the stretch. The Cougars most recently fell 67-60 to Wyoming, led by 19 points and eight boards from Ben Burnham in a losing cause. Coastal Carolina is hosting this tournament, but I say they're way overmatched here. The Chanticleers only had 11 total victories last year, and all signs point to another very difficult season ahead. Lay the points, the play is CHARLESTON. (more analysis available) Good luck, NP |
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11-18-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Kraken/Nucks. This could possibly turn into a really good rivalry one day. Either way, I'm expecting a very competitive battle here and while each team has been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, I'm finally expecting a defensive battle on the West Coast of Canada this evening. Seattle snapped a three-game slide with a 4-3 shootout win over the Islanders last time out. The Kraken have seen the total go OVER the number in three straight, but note that Seattle has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. Vancouver has played to six straight OVERS, but with the visiting side looking to control the pace of this one, expect these Pacific division rivals to stay UNDER the number once it's all said and done. (additional analysis available) Good luck, NP |
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11-18-23 | Nebraska v. Wisconsin OVER 36.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 51 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN TOM on the OVER Nebraska/Wisconsin. To say this is a "big" game would be an understatement. These teams re both 5-5 with two games remaining. The winner will become "eligibile" and the loser will have one more chance. Either way, while neither team has been involved in many high-scoring games to this point, I believe the conditions are now finally right for a bit of an offensive battle. Nebraska is off the 13-10 home loss to Maryland, while Wisconsin fell 24-10 to Northwestern. The Badgers have seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that Wisconsin has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Wisconsin has to be liking its chances here as well as it's won nine straight in this series. That includes a 15-14 road win last year. But now the overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends finally point to these teams reaching the mid-20's with their points. This number is low, the play is the OVER. (more analysis available) Good luck, NP |
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11-18-23 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. South Dakota +3.5 | 93-81 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* UNDERDOG BLOWOUT on South Dakota. With 70% of the money on Purdue Fort Wayne, I'm naturally going to go the other way here and take South Dakota. It's not just that though, as overall this one does set up well for the hungry underdog home side. The Mastodons are 4-0, while the Coyotes are 3-1. Check out who these teams have played tough, and it's South Dakota that's endured the tougher schedule. In a contest that I see coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is SOUTH DAKOTA. Good luck, NP |
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11-18-23 | Seattle University v. VCU OVER 136.5 | Top | 56-60 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Seattle/VCU. At the start of the season, I'm basing my picks on "situations." And for the most part I base all of my Over/Under releases (in every sport), on "situations" as well. And so this one is a great "situational" play in my opinion. Both teams are 2-1 SU. Seattle is 0-3 ATS, while VCU is 2-1 ATS. But both sides have seen the total go UNDER in all three games to this point. But that's in fact significant to note here, as Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row, while VCU has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, I think this O/U is now a bit TOO low. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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11-18-23 | Oklahoma v. BYU +24.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 GOM on BYU. BYU is obviously a huge dog here and I'm not predicting that it'll somehow be able to pull off the outright upset, but I do think the 5-5 Cougars will put up a much bigger fight than what this spread is suggesting. Oklahoma is 8-2 this year after beating WVU 59-20 last weekend, but it's just 2-2 SU on the road. BYU is 5-5, but 4-1 SU at home. Oklahoma can see the finish line and it won't be taking anything for granted here, but I just don't see Dillon Gabriel and the Sooners keeping the foot on the gas in the second half. So far Oklahoma is averaging 41.8 PPG, while allowing 19.8. BYU is averaging 21.9 PPG, while allowing 28.7. This is obviously a very contrarian play. The numbers are lop-sided for these teams, as is the public money on one of these two sides. While most everyone goes one way, I'm going the other and grabbing the points. The play is BYU. Good luck, NP |
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11-17-23 | Panthers v. Ducks +1.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SPECIAL on the Ducks puckline. I am going to lay the price here for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. You may want to "sprinkle" a little on the Ducks on the moneyline as well though. Either way, this is a great "situational/spot" bet, as Florida is off a 2-1 loss at LA just last night. With two whole nights off after this, followed by a lengthy home-stand, I say the visitors get caught flat-footed here and "looking ahead." So now the Ducks can take advantage as they look to respond after an 8-2 loss at Colorado. The Panthers are 8-8 to the puckline, while the Ducks are 11-5. Lay the price, the play is ANAHEIM on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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11-16-23 | North Dakota State v. Montana OVER 137 | Top | 78-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOW on the OVER North Dakota State/Montana. The North Dakota State Bison are on the road to take on the Montana Grizzlies and everything points to this one flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. North Dakota State is 2-2 after a 68-53 loss to UC Davis last time out. Overall the Bison are so far averaging 71.5 PPG, while allowing 74.8. Montana is 2-1 after a 78-65 win over UC Davis last time out. Montana is averaging 82 PPG, while allowing 66.3 in the early going. I see the Grizzlies really pushing the pace of this one, and because of that, everything does indeed point to the OVER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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11-16-23 | Canucks v. Flames -112 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Flames. Calgary is 5-8-0-2, while Vancouver is 12-3-1-0. One of these teams has so far under-achieved, while the other has over-achieved. Either way, this is a great "situational" play. The Canucks come in off a hard-fought 4-3 OT win over the Isles at home just last night and will be fatigued. The Flames are desperate for victories and with nearly 80% of the public money on the visiting side, that definitely swings the pendulum in favor of the hungry home side in my opinion. The play is CALGARY. Good luck, NP |
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11-16-23 | Bengals v. Ravens -3 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Ravens. This important divisional matchup favors the home side in my opinion. The Bengals are now 5-4 after a last-second 30-27 loss to the Texans on Sunday, while the Ravens are 7-3 after a tough 33-31 loss to Cleveland. Each team had big early leads, and each collapsed late. Did they get caught "looking ahead" to this Thursday night divisional matchup?! Very likely! When they met earlier this year in Cincinnati, the Ravens won 27-24, but I'm expecting a much more lop-sided outcome here on Thursday night. Lay the points, the play is BALTIMORE. Good luck, NP |
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11-15-23 | Georgetown v. Rutgers OVER 134.5 | Top | 60-71 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Georgetown/Rutgers. Georgetown is 1-1, and Rutgers is 2-1. So far the Scarlet Knights have seen the total go UNDER the number in their first three games, but I'm finally expecting more of a wide-open offensive affair in this one. Rutgers lost its first game of the year to Princeton, but comes in off B2B victories. The Scarlet Knights have been playing great defense, but the Hoyas outside shooting will keep them honest in this one. Expect these team's offensive shooting numbers to improve in this one and expect this total to eclipse this low number as the game comes down the stretch. The play is the OVER. (more analysis available) Good luck, NP |
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11-15-23 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 227.5 | Top | 128-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Bucks/Raptors. These teams are very familiar with each other. Each had yesterday off and is raring to go. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting a faster-paced affair, and one that goes well over the posted number once it's all said and done. These teams played here on November 1st, and the Raptors won 130-111, the total sailing well OVER the number. We have a higher total for this game, but I'm still expecting a similar final combined scored as what we saw in that earlier contest. And finally note, the Bucks have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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11-15-23 | Central Michigan +11 v. Ohio | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on CMU. At 5-5, CMU isn't getting much of a chance here by the oddsmakers to win this game straight up, but I say the conditions are right for a tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting. CMU is 5-5. It has two more games to try and punch a possible bowl berth. However, the odds are against the Chips as they'll be huge underdogs in each game, including this one and their final one of the regular season vs. Toledo. Ohio is 7-3. It's off a 20-10 win over Buffalo. It has a game at the lowly Zips after this. The bottom line here is that the more motivated side is going to fight tooth and nail and I believe that'll be more than enough to get the job done with the large amount of points. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is CENTRAL MICHIGAN. (more analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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11-14-23 | Southern Utah v. Utah State -15.5 | Top | 84-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTIMATE BEATDOWN on Utah State. Southern Utah is 1-1 SU and 1-0 ATS, while Utah State is 1-1 SU, and 0-1 ATS. Southern Utah averaged 82.8 PPG last year, while allowing 74.7. The Aggies averaged 78.2 PPG, while conceding just 69.9. The difference though is the level of competition. After a somewhat lacklustre start, I'm looking for Utah State to take advantage of this matchup as I expect its defense to be the difference-maker in the end. Lay the points, the play is UTAH STATE. Good luck, NP |
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11-14-23 | Mavs v. Pelicans +3.5 | Top | 110-131 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Pelicans. Dallas has won four of its last five, including two in a row after a 136-124 win here two nights ago. New Orleans comes in on the other end of the spectrum, eager to snap a five SU/ATS losing streak. Note though that NO is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after five or more SU/ATS losses in a row. The Pels have also done well in a revenge role, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. Dallas has a game in Washington tomorrow night, so I say it gets caught peaking ahead to that one as well. While the outright is possible, grab as many points as you can. The play is NEW ORLEANS. Good luck, NP |
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11-14-23 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois -5 | Top | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC ATTACK on Northern Illinois. Both teams are 4-6 with two games to go to try and punch eligibility. WMU is off a 38-28 home win over SMU, but I think it'll struggle here now on the road after two straight victories. Last week QB Hayden Wolff went 25 of 36 for 333 yards, three TD's and an INT. NIU comes in as the more desperate team here though after two straight losses, most recently it was a 20-17 home setback to Ball State. Senior QB Ricky Lombardi was 15 of 26 for 141 yards, while also rushing for 14 yards and a TD as well. WMU though is conceding 28.8 PPG over its last five games, while over that same span NIU has allowed just 19.4. Lay the points, the play is NORTHERN ILLINOIS. Good luck, NP |
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11-13-23 | Cavs v. Kings UNDER 222 | Top | 120-132 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOW on the UNDER Cavs/Kings. These two teams are in dire need of a victory and because of that I'm expecting a very defensive affair. Cleveland is 4-5 and Sacramento is 4-4. The Cavaliers are off a 118-110 road win at Golden State, but note that Cleveland has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 off a SU/ATS road win as an underdog in its previous outing. The Kings have now won back-to-back games after a 105-98 victory over OKC last time out. Sacramento won 106-95 over Cleveland the last time these teams played, and all signs point to a similar final combined score here as well in my opinion. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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11-13-23 | Broncos v. Bills OVER 47.5 | Top | 24-22 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Broncos/Bills. This is a really big game for both teams. The Broncos have seemingly turned the corner with their performance, as they come out of their bye week off two straight quality victories. Denver has seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that the Broncos have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Another win, and Denver is right back in the race. Buffalo is now just 5-4 after a 24-18 loss to Cincinnati last week. The Bills are desperate to break the slide and get their offense back on track here as well after seeing four of their last five games go UNDER the number. Expect these two veteran QB's to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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11-13-23 | Michigan v. St. John's -2.5 | Top | 89-73 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on St. John's. This is part of the Gavitt Tipoff Games. The Wolverines are 2-0 after pulling away for a 92-62 win over Youngstown State on Friday. They're also 2-0 ATS. The Red Storm are 1-0 SU and 0-1 ATS after a 90-74 win over Stony Brook. The moral of the story here? Clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are evenly matched. St. John's has had a week off to prepare for this one, where Michigan played on Friday. Look for the more rested side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover. Lay the short points, the play is ST. JOHN'S. Good luck, NP |
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11-12-23 | UC-Davis +4.5 v. Montana | Top | 65-78 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG BOB on UC Davis. UC Davis is 2-0 SU, and 0-2 ATS. Montana is 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever of these equally-matched sides has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. Last year Montana averaged 69.3 PPG, while the Aggies averaged 74.8. Elija Pepper and Ty Johnson are a difficult matchup issue for the home side here. Look for UC DAVIS to, at the very least, keep this one comfortably close down the stretch and grab as many points as you can. Good luck, NP |
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11-12-23 | Pistons v. Bulls UNDER 217.5 | Top | 108-119 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Pistons/Bulls. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting a much more defensive battle here. Detroit is just 2-8, while Chicago is only 3-6. These are two division rivals in need of a victory and I'm expecting that to translate into a very defensive affair. Chicago hasn't played since a 116-115 OT setback at home to Phoenix four days ago, so its rested and ready to roll on this road trip. Detroit won 118-102 at home vs. the Bulls, so Chicago also plays with revenge here, and note that it's seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Expect an all out war until the end and for this total to ultimately stay well UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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11-12-23 | Blackhawks v. Panthers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Hawks/Panthers. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a defensive affair in my opinion. Florida has won three straight, and it's seen the total go OVER in four straight. Despite that though, note that the Panthers have still seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Florida also plays with revenge after a 5-2 loss at Chicago at the start of the month, but note as well that the Panthers have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. When you add up all these different factors, the savvy call as far as the total is concerned is indeed on the UNDER in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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11-12-23 | 49ers -3 v. Jaguars | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* FIRST HALF TOP SIDE on the 49ers. If you can't get San Francisco on the FIRST HALF option, I also absolutely love it for the ENTIRE GAME here as well. After three straight SU/ATS losses in a row, but now coming out of its bye week, I think the 49ers finally put it together and keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one. Jacksonville has won five straight, but it's still just 1-2 at home this season. Yes, the Jags are also coming out of a bye, but I think that it came at the worst time. Chemistry will be affected. Conversely, the bye came at the best possible time for the 49ers, who have since also brought in defensive-specialist DE Chase Young from Washington at the trade deadline. Jacksonville's weakness is on pass defense, and it's now or never for Brock Purdy. I say SAN FRANCISCO jumps out to the early lead in this one (but again, if you can't find a FIRST HALF line, I also like the 49ERS for the ENTIRE game.) Good luck, NPÂ |
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11-12-23 | Texans +6.5 v. Bengals | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* SHOCKER on the Texans. As primarily a situational capper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse. Houston catches the Bengals "looking ahead" here to their Thursday night divisional matchup vs. the red hot Ravens. The Texans are 4-4 and off the big 39-37 win over a tough Tampa defense. I like Stroud to keep his team competitive late again here. Grab the points, the play is HOUSTON. Good luck, NP |
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11-11-23 | Siena +12 v. Richmond | Top | 48-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILER on Siena. Both teams are 1-0. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I do absolutely believe that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Siena held on for a tighter-than-expected 73-71 win over Holy Cross in its opener, while Richmond rolled over VMI 93-71. The Saints had three players score in double-digits, while Richmond had two. The lack of scoring depth for the Spiders is something they'll have to figure out before the end of the season if they want to be true contendors. Either way, this is a few too many points in my opinion. Grab the points, the play is SIENA. Good luck, NP |
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11-11-23 | Georgia Southern v. Marshall +1.5 | Top | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Marshall. 6-3 Georgia Southern had a predictable letdown last Saturday, one week after becoming eligible, falling 45-24 at Texas State as a 2.5-point underdog. Now it faces 4-5 Marshall, which has lost five straight SU, and six straight ATS. The Thundering Herd are running out of chances to become eligible, but now here finally is an opponent and a venue in which it has the upper hand. Marshall's pass defense is above average and I say that the more "desperate" team rallies here in this "do or die" situation. Grab the points, the play is MARSHALL. (more analysis available) Good luck, NP |
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11-11-23 | Virginia Tech +1 v. Boston College | Top | 48-22 | Win | 100 | 118 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC GOW on Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech is running out of time to become eligible. Losing though breeds motivation, while at times, winning can lead to complacency. The Hokies had won two straight convincingly before last week's 34-3 meltdown at Louisville. But with only three games remaining, it's clearly now or never for the visiting side. BC won its fifth straight and moved to 6-3 in last week 17-10 upset win at Syracuse. Can anyone say "letdown" spot here? Note as well that the Eagles are in fact just 3-7 ATS in their last ten after five or more SU victories in a row. Does that stat matter for this year's team? It certainly doesn't hurt my argument! Either way, as primarily a "situational" handicapper, this one falls right into my "wheel-house." While clearly the outright is possible, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with VIRGINIA TECH. Good luck, NP |
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11-11-23 | Arkansas State +2 v. Bowling Green | Top | 75-81 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG SUPER SHOCKER on Arkansas State. Arkansas State comes in as the hungrier team here after falling to Wisconsin in its opener. Bowling Green is 1-0, but its victory came over lowly Chicago State. In the 105-76 loss to the Badgers, Freddy Hicks was superb in a losing cause with 21 point and seven boards and I think he'll be a matchup issue for the Green Falcons today. The 70-41 win over Chicago State clearly has to be taken with a grain of salt, with Marcus Hill leading the way with 18 points and five boards. The Red Wolves still shot 40.7 percent in their loss to Wisconsin, and this Green Falcons' defense isn't anything close to the Badgers' unit. Either way, while I do think the outright win is possible obviously, my official recommendation will be to grab as many points as you can with ARKANSAS STATE. Good luck, NP |
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11-11-23 | Tottenham Hotspur v. Wolverhampton Wanderers UNDER 3 | Top | 1-2 | Push | 0 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL TOW on the UNDER Tottenham/Wolverhampton. Tottenham finally lost in regulation in EPL action this year, falling 4-1 at home to Chelsea. Note though that the Hot Spur have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five off a three goals or greater home loss as a favorite in their last outing. The Wolves five game unbeaten streak came to an end in last week's 2-1 loss at Sheffield United, and I'm expecting them to now double down defensively in this bounce back scenario as well this weekend. With both teams having just come off losses, everything points to a very defensive battle in my opinion between these clubs this weekend. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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11-10-23 | Thunder v. Kings +2.5 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Kings. I like the Kings to find a way to get the job done here and win this game at home. OKC has won two in a row and covered in three straight. This is the Thunder's first road game in two weeks though and I think it'll struggle here vs. this motivated and good home team. The Kings do definitey play better at home. They're 3-4 overall, but 2-1 at home. The Thunder are 2-0 on the road, but both victories came at the start of the year. With a much more high-profile game at Phoenix up next, I say OKC gets caught "looking ahead" here as well. Look for the hungrier home side to punch a "W" into the win column here and play SACRAMENTO. Good luck, NP |
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11-10-23 | North Texas +17 v. SMU | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on North Texas. At this time of year, taking a "situational" approach to handicapping College Football is always a greart way to make your selections, and that's the case for me here with this one. Clearly, SMU is the better team. It's 7-2, including 4-0 at home. UNT is just 3-6, and only 1-3 on the road. The Mean Green though have been competitive away from friendly confines, going a money-making 3-1 ATS for bettors in a vistors role so far. SMU is 3-1 ATS at home, but UNT is 3-6 with just three games remaining. The odds are against the Mean Green to become eligible obviously, but they won't be rolling over here, it's "do or die" etc. SMU gets caught "peeking ahead" to it game at Memphis next week in my opinion. Grab the points, the play is indeed on NORTH TEXAS. Good luck, NP |
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11-10-23 | Flames v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOY on the UNDER Flames/Leafs. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end here. The overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends all point finally to more of a defensive affair here. Neither team can be overly pleased where they sit right now in the standings. Calgary is 4-7-0-1, including just 2-4-0-1 on the road, while Toronto is 6-5-1-1, including only 3-4-0-0 at home. Toronto has played to three straight OVERs after a 6-3 home loss to Ottawa as a -163 favorite on Wednesday night, but note that the Leafs have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Calgary is coming off B2B wins, but it's seen the total go OVER in four straight. With another tough game at Ottawa tomorrow night, I believe the Flames play a more aggressive defensive game tonight here in Toronto. When you add it all up, this total is indeed to high. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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11-10-23 | Monmouth +16 v. West Virginia | 73-65 | Win | 100 | 26 h 5 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Monmouth. I like Monmouth to comfortably sneak in through the back door. WVU is 1-0 after a relatively easy 67-59 win over Missouri State, while Monmouth is 0-1 after a 72-61 setback at George Mason. Quinn Slazinski had 18 points for the Mountaineers in the victory, while Xander Rice had 21 points for Monmouth in a losing cause. Last year WVU averaged 76 PPG, while allowing 70.9, while the Hawks averaged 61.7 and allowing 74.7. Monmouth though is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after a SU/ATS road loss as an underdog in its previous contest. This is a few too many points in my estimation. Grab the points, the play is indeed on MONMOUTH. (more analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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11-10-23 | Youngstown State +14 v. Michigan | Top | 62-92 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* SHOCKER on Youngstown State. Am I suggesting that Youngstown State will win this game outright?! I am not! But I do think it'll be a lot closer down the stretch than what this lop-sided spread is suggesting. Last year the Penguins averaged 81.9 PPG, while allowing 72.5. They're 0-1 after a tight 72-62 loss at UL Lafayette as 4.5-point underdogs. Michigan rolled over UNCA 99-74 as a ten-point favorite. Last year the Wolverines averaged 73.4, while allowing 69.6. These teams have no recent history together and the bottom line is I believe the visiting side will come in under the radar here and give the Wolverines everything they can handle. Grab the points, the play is YOUNGSTOWN STATE. Good luck, NP |
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11-09-23 | Panthers v. Bears OVER 38.5 | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Panthers/Bears. What are these teams playing for?! Not for a possible playoff spot, that's for sure. They're playing for pride. Coaches are coaching for their jobs and players are playing for theirs. This may have seemed like a possible great Thursday night matchup before the season started, but Carolina enters at 1-7 overall, including 0-4 on the road, while Chicago is 2-7 overall, including 1-3 at home. The short week is going to effect these defenses in what I anticipate will be a wide-open offensive affair, rather than a grind-it-out defensive one. This number is a little low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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11-09-23 | Florida A&M +26 v. Nebraska | Top | 54-81 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTIMATE SHOCKER on Florida A&M. At the start of the season, in any sport, I employ a few different strategies, as my systems don't really kick into full gear until at least a week or so of results have been posted. Am I suggesting an outright win here? Of course not! But I do think that Nebraska will take the foot off the gas in the second half and allow Florida A&M more than enough room to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. I'm a situational handicapper, and this is a great situational play in my opinion. FAMU is 0-1after a huimbling 105-54 setback at Creighton. It's being undervalued here now though. Nebraska is 1-0 SU/ATS after its 84-52 win over Lindenwood. But with a neutral site tourney game vs. Oregon State up next, I think the home side gets caught "looking ahead." Grab the points, the play is FLORIDA A&M. (more analysis available.)Â Good luck, NP |
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11-09-23 | Southern Miss v. UL-Lafayette OVER 52.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUN BELT TOM on the OVER USM/UL Lafayette. As primarily a situational handicapper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse. Southern Miss is only 2-7, but it still can play "spoiler" here by trying to keep 5-4 UL Lafayette out of Bowl contention for at least one more week. That said, clearly the Cajuns won't be leaving anything to chance after last week's 37-17 setback at Arkansas State as a 6.5-point favorite (note though, UL Lafayette has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 off an upset ATS/SU conference road loss as a favorite.) This number is low, the play is the OVER. (more analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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11-09-23 | Bucks v. Pacers UNDER 241.5 | Top | 124-126 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* CENTRAL DIV. TOY on the UNDER Bucks/Pacers. Here's a fantastic situational play in my opinion. Neither team has been involved in many defensive affairs this season, but I expect tonight's total to stay well below this posted sky-high number. The Pacers have now seen the total go OVER in five straight after last night's 134-118 home win over Utah. Note though that Indiana has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row. Milwaukee has seen the total go OVER in five of seven this year, including in yetreday's 120-118 win over the Pistons. It was a much tougher battle than expected and with each side now playing the second game of the back-to-back, I'm expecting these normally super-efficient offenses to be less so this evening. This number is indeed high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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