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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-30-23 | Nationals v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Nats/Jays. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Toronto has now seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after yesterday's 5-4 loss here to the Nats. Note though that the Blue Jays have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge an upset home loss as a -150 or greater favorites. Both of these starters have been much better over the last month as well and that progression continues here in my estimation, with Patrick Corbin (9-11, 4.70 ERA) going for the visitors, and Chriss Bassitt (12-7, 4.00) countering for the home side. Everything points to this one staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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08-30-23 | Guardians v. Twins -154 | 5-2 | Loss | -154 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Twins. I like the Twins to bounce back here at home after yesterday's 4-2 loss. Minnesota took the opener by a score of 10-6. Note though that the Twins are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Tyler Bibee (10-3, 3.01 ERA) has been a consistent bright spot for the Guardians all year, but I still give the nod to Sonny Gray (7-6, 3.06) here at home in this revenge situation. Lay the price, the play is MINNESOTA. Good luck, NP |
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08-29-23 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the D-Backs runline. These teams were both really hot coming into this series, and LA managed the 7-4 victory as a -145 favorite. Arizona won't be rolling over here obviously, I think the revenge factor comes into play here. And clearly these starters are very evenly matched. This starting pitching matchup is an "Any Given Sunday" type of scenario, in that it would be easy to write a convincing argument for either of these guys to win this game. And so in a case like that, I invariably feel that the value then swings to the undervalued underdog. And in this case, getting Merrill Kelly and the D-Backs with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance on the runline option at this price is just too attractive to turn down in the end. The play is ARIZONA on the RUNLINE. Good luck, NP |
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08-28-23 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 13-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Astros/Red Sox. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but that fact has only helped in driving this Monday total a bit higher than it normally would/should be. Houston has seen the total go OVER in eight of its last night, while Boston has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 11 straight. Clearly we know these teams can hit, but I'm finally expecting a bit of a "duel" here in the opener. The visitors hand the ball to Christian Javier (9-2, 4.52 ERA), while the home side counters with Chris Sale (5-3, 4.68.) Javier is 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA in four career meetings vs. the Red Sox, while Sale is 5-3 with a 2.56 ERA in ten career starts vs. Houston. This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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08-27-23 | Cardinals v. Phillies -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHING DOMINATION on the Phillies runline. I'm not smelling any upsets here. The Cards look completely dejected, and the Phillies are continuing to get stronger with each passing game. It's in fact very reminiscent of last year at this time for the Phillies, where they caught fire and rode the wave to the World Series. They've outscored the Cards 19-3 over the first two games, and all signs point to another blowout here in my opinion. The Cards hand the ball to the volatile Drew Rom (0-1, 14.73 ERA), who is set to make his second career start after allowing eight runs over three innings in an 11-1 loss to the lowly Pirates on Monday. The home side counters with veteran Aaron Nola (11-8, 4.49), who comes in off a strong performance, allowing two runs over seven innings in a 10-4 victory over the Giants last Monday. Nola has once again been much better at home than on the road this year, posting a 3.49 ERA in 11 home starts. Look for Philadelphia to continue the HIT PARADE and lay the price with confidence. Good luck, NP |
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08-26-23 | St. Louis City v. Orlando City SC -105 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 53 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Orlando City SC. Orlando City SC enters off a 3-1 MLS win over Chicago, while St. Louis City enters off a 6-3 against Austin. Orlando City at home though has been money in the bank, where it's currently unbeaten in seven games. This is a big game for Orlando City and while St. Louis is ranked higher, it doesn't travel as well on the road as it plays at home. Lay this reasonable price, the play is ORLANDO CITY SC. Good luck, NP |
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08-26-23 | Ohio v. San Diego State -155 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 535 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on SDSU on the moneyline. Ohio is coming off a great year, reaching the MAC Championship, and winning a Bowl game. Overall the Bobcats finished 10-4. QB Kurtis Ward won the Offensive Player Of The Year. Overall Ohio finished 34th on the offensive end, and was solid defensively as well. The Aztecs finished the season 7-6 overall, and 5-3 in MWC play. In the end SDSU fell 25-23 to MTSU in the Hawaii Bowl. Note that San Diego State had the most first-team all-MW selections with seven, the most combined first and second team picks with 11, and the most all-conference selections overall with 16. Additionally they had the Mountain West Special Teams Player of the Year in Jack Browning (in fact, over the last eight years, an Aztec has been named Mountain West Special Teams Player of the Year five times.) Ohio has been consistent, but regression after last year's amazing season seems imminent to me. I'm going to avoid the spread option and instead confidentally lay the price and take the home side on the moneyline. The play is SDSU to win this game outright. Good luck, NP |
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08-26-23 | Astros -126 v. Tigers | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on the Astros. After three straight losses, including the opener in this one, I expect the Astros to dig deep here and deliver in Detroit. The Tigers are playing well right now, but they're still just 28-35 on the road. Note as well that Houston is 7-3 in its last ten after three or more straight losses in a row. It's also 4-1 in its last five in trying to avenge a road loss as a fav vs. an opponent. Hunter Brown (9-9, 4.50 ERA) gets the call for the Astros, while Eduardo Rodriguez (9-6, 3.03) counters for the home side. The overall situation though, combined with the above listed trends do indeed make the Astros worth the price of admission in this one. The play is HOUSTON. Good luck, NP |
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08-26-23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Everton OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -116 | 116 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL TOM on the OVER Everton/Wolverhampton. Here is a great situational play. Everton is 0-2 so far, losing 4-0 to Aston Villa and 1-0 to Fulham. Wolverhampton hasn't had much better success so far, falling 1-0 to Manchester United and 4-1 to Brighton and Hove Albion. These two desperate sides will be looking to avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole, and the fact that they haven't had any luck in scoring any goals so far this season, has in fact helped in driving this O/U line a little lower than it normally would/should be. These teams are poor, but this is a contest that each will feel it can win. I see little defense being played, and ultimately I expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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08-25-23 | Rangers +105 v. Twins | Top | 2-12 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Rangers. I think the Rangers' run of bad luck comes to an end here. Luck does play a role in long losing streaks, and in long winning streaks. Both teams need victories, but it's all hands on deck for Texas today as it looks to get back into the winner's circle after sevem straight losses. That includes the opener of this series last night by a score of 7-5. Danning Dunning (9-5, 3.19 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, and he's 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in four career starts vs. the Twins. Minnesota now has a six-game lead over the Guardians after last night's come-from-behind win, and I think that complacency finally kicks in a bit here. Sonny Gray (6-6, 3.15) get s the call for the home side, and he's 9-5 with a 3.17 ERA in 17 career games vs. Texas. All in all these starters are evenly matched, but look for TEXAS to finally punch through here and find a way to stop the extened, but now unrealistic slide. Good luck, NP |
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08-24-23 | Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 17-1 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTIMATE on the UNDER Red Sox/Astros. Boston has now seen the total go OVER the number in five straight games after losing the first two games of this series. Note though that the Red Sox have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. They've also seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. The Astros have seen the total go UNDER in four straight now. Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but that fact has also helped in driving this total a point higher than it normally would/should be as well in my opinion. Two super in form starters collide, with Brayan Bello (9-7, 3.70 ERA) going for the Red Sox, and JP France (9-4, 2.75) countering for the home side. Look for this afternoon's finale to finally produce a lower-scoring UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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08-23-23 | Royals v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Royals/A's. Both teams have been playing to higher-scoring affairs of late, but all signs point to this one on Wednesday being more of a "duel." KC has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four, including in the first two losses of this series. Note though that KC has seen the total UNDER the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Oakland has now seen the total go OVER in five straight after the B2B wins, which is also significant to note, as the A's have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row. Cole Ragans (2-1, 2.51 ERA) has looked sharp for the Royals, Adrian Martinez (0-1, 5.85) less so for the A's. But here's a big opportunity for Martinez to get back to his previous form, facing this lowly opponent. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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08-22-23 | Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Red Sox/Astros. I had a play on the UNDER in the opener of this series yesterday, and that was a loser in the Astros' 9-4 victory. Boston has now seen the total go OVER the number in four straight, while Houston has seen the total go OVER in three straight (important to note here though that the Astros have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.) Here are two starters looking to improve their records, and hopefully lead their team to a win. The visitors go with Tanner Houck (3-6, 5.05 ERA), while the home side counters with Justin Verlander (2-1, 4.50.) Verlander is 8-6 with a 3.36 ERA overall this season. He's 5-6 with a 2.87 ERA in 19 career regular-season starts vs. Boston. Houck has been out for two months rehabbing, but that progression has reportedly gone well: "It's good to be back," Houck said. "Long road, but I know things could have been much worse so excited to get back out there (on Tuesday)." I think the overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends all point to the UNDER as the savvy call as far as the total is concerned this evening. Good luck, NP |
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08-21-23 | Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Red Sox/Astros. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I look for the opener of this series to be dominated by the men on the mound. Boston has seen the total go OVER the number in three straight after sweeping at the Yankees over the weekend. Note though that the Red Sox have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. Houston has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after losing all three at home to Seattle over the weekend. Note though that the Astros have seen the total UNDER the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. James Paxton (7-3, 3.34 ERA) gets the call for Boston, while Christian Javier (8-2, 4.49) counters for the home side. Look for these two veterans to battle deep, and for this total to ultimatley stay UNDER the posted number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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08-20-23 | Austin v. St. Louis City -116 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 125 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* MLS WEST-CONF GOY on St. Louis CITY SC. St. Louis CITY SC beat Austin 3-2 on the road all the way back on February 25th, and I'm expecting an even bigger blowout here at home. St. Louis CITY SC went into the break off a 3-0 home win over Miami, and I believe we'll see a similar final outcome here as well. Austin FC has been hit or miss this year. It's just 9-9 this season, and for the most part it's been better at home than on the road. St. Louis leads the Western Conference, and at this price, I think we're getting fantastic value on what I believe to be the overall "better" team. Lay the price for St. Louis CITY SC to win in regulation. Good luck, NP |
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08-20-23 | Blue Jays v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* IL TOM on the OVER Jays/Reds. Both teams have been playing to some lower-scoring UNDERS of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening in what I feel sets up to be a classic "slug-fest."Â The Jays snapped a two-game slide with the 4-3 win yesterday, and they've now seen the total go UNDER in two straight. But more importantly, the Reds have now seen the total go UNDER the number in four straight after the setback, and note that Cincinnati has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a dog vs. an opponent. The starters have been decent: Hyun-Jin Ryu is 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA for the Jays, while Hunter Greene is 2-4 with a 3.93 ERA for the Reds. This is just a case of these guys being in the WRONG PLACE at the WRONG TIME today. Because the overall situation, combined with the above trend points to the OVER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned. Good luck, NP |
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08-19-23 | Cowboys v. Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 14-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Seahawks. I like Seattle to keep the foot on the gas here at home vs. "America's team" and to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion. The Cowboys are just going to go through the motions once again in my estimation after coming up short at home vs. Jacksonville in last week's 28-23 setback. Dak Prescott isn't scheduled to see any time, and if he does, it'll be for only a series. Regardless, this Dallas offense looks impotent without Prescott directing the show, and now dealing with the absence of Ezekiel Elliot. Seattle fell behind Minnesota early last week, but then put the foot on the gas and won 24-13. QB Drew Lock had 191 passing yards, two TD's and an INT. Dallas on the other hand turned the ball over three times last week. With Seattle expected to work more of its starters into the rotation in Week 2, I'm expecting a complete blowout here. Lay the points, the play is SEATTLE. Good luck, NP |
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08-19-23 | Mariners +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL GOY on the Mariners runline. The Mariners have won four straight, including the opener of this one by a score of 2-0. I think the visiting side continues to build momentum here and while I do absolutely believe an outright win is a possibility, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Logan Gilbert (10-5, 3.80 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, and he's 3-2 with a 3.72 ERA over eight career starts vs. the Astros. He'll be opposed by Framber Valdez (9-8, 3.31), who has struggled of late, posting an elevated 5.52 ERA with four dingers allowed over his last two starts. He's had plenty of success vs. the Mariners in the past, going 5-0 with a 2.05 ERA, but this is a case of that being "then," and this being "now." Seattle is 6-2 vs. the Astros this year, including 4-1 at Minute Maid Park. Usually, I like to stand in front of winning streaks or losing streaks, but in this case, the momentum that the Mariners have created right now is very real. I'm laying the price here for SEATTLE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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08-19-23 | Newcastle United +1 v. Manchester City | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 94 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL GOM on Newcastle United on the spread option (+1). Newcastle United is off the commanding 5-1 win over Aston Villa and with upcoming games vs. Liverpool and Brighton and Hove Albion, I think it'll, at the very least, be able to cover with the spread option. Newcastle United features an awesome player in Callum Wilson, and I think he'll keep his team in form vs. Erling Haaland and company. This won't be a cake-walk whatsoever for Man City, who got the better of Burnely 3-0 in its opener. Everything points to a competitive affair. The play is NEWCASTLE UNITED on the SPREAD OPTION. Good luck, NP |
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08-18-23 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Mariners/Astros. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Mariners have seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after taking three of four at KC this week. Despite their 6-4 high-scoring win yesterday, note that the Mariners have still seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. The Astros took two of three at the Marlins, and the final two games did go OVER the number. Two really good teams here, each with their eyes set on a playoff spot. And two really decent starters going head-to-head, with Seattle turning to Bryce Miller (7-4, 4.04 ERA), and the home side countering with JP France (9-3, 2.74.) I say this total is a little high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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08-18-23 | Panthers v. Giants -150 | Top | 19-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the GIANTS on the MONEYLINE. Carolina lost 27-0 to the Jets in its opener, and now I think it'll have its hands full here with the other New York team on Friday night. Instead of worrying about the spread option though, I'm going to recommend just playing New York on the moneyline option. The Giants are off a 21-16 loss at Detroit. The old eye test though reveals that Carolina sure looked like garbage though overall. Bryce Young was 4 of 6 for 21 yards. His offensive line was terrible. The defense was the brigh tspot in the 27-0 loss. New York essentially sat out all of its offensive starters last week, with QB Tommy DeVito seeing the bulk of the time by going 15 of 24 for 155 yards and a TD. New York has the better defense is playing at home. Lay the price on the GIANTS on the MONEYLINE. Good luck, NP |
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08-17-23 | Browns v. Eagles UNDER 38 | Top | 18-18 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOW on the UNDER Browns/Eagles. The Browns are 1-1 and the Eagles are 0-1 so far in the preseason. Philly went OVER the number in its last game with 39 points, but the Browns have seen an average of 33.5 PPG so far over their first two games. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles first offense will see their very first action of the year, and it won't be a lot. And with the Browns expected to concetrate on the run game while on offense, the sharp move as far as the total is concerned is indeed on the UNDER in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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08-17-23 | Red Sox v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKEIKILLER on the OVER Red Sox/Nationals. Boston has now seen the total go UNDER in seven straight after yesterday's 6-2 loss. The Red Sox though have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. After the first two games of this interleague matchup having gone UNDER the posted number, I anticipate a slug-fest finally here this afternoon. Neither starter has been terrible, but neither has been great either. Boston turns to Chris Sale (5-2, 4.52 ERA), while the home side counters with Patrick Corbin (7-11, 4.85.) Sale's win/loss record and ERA means that he's getting lots of run support this year. This number is low in my estimation, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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08-16-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Orioles on the RUNLINE. While I do think an outright victory is possible, I think the Orioles with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance at this price is the way to go. Baltimore took the opener by a score of 4-1, and then the Padres responded with a 10-3 victory yesterday. We have two evenly matched starters going H2H here, as Baltimore turns to Dean Kremer (11-4, 4.50 ERA), while the home side counters with Blake Snell (9-8, 2.63.) In a contest that I think will be decided late (or even in extra innings), I'm going to lay the price for BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE. Good luck, NP |
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08-15-23 | Liberty v. Aces OVER 175.5 | Top | 82-63 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* BATTLE OF THE BEST on the OVER Liberty/Aces. Both teams come in hot. It wouldn't be too difficult to write a convincing argument for either side to win. The Aces play with revenge after a 99-61 humbling beatdown loss at New York back in early August as 4.5-point favorites, but Las Vegas has nearly 75% of the public money on it. Instead of trying to navigate this game and choose a side, I feel the value for sure instead betting the total, and while the last one did go UNDER the number, I say this rematch points to a high-scoring "shootout."Â Note that Las Vegas has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss against an opponent. The stage is set for a faster-paced, and ultimately higher-scoring OVER. Good luck, NP |
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08-15-23 | Astros v. Marlins +1.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL MISMATCH on the MARLINS RUNLINE. I had a play on the Marlins on the runline in their 5-1 outright win here over the Astros, and while I do feel that they have a legitimate shot at winning tonight's contest as well, in the end my official call will be to grab the 1.5 runs of insurance for what I feel to be a very good price. Clearly, Christian Javier (8-2, 4.36 ERA) has the advantage here on paper over counterpart Johnny Cueto (0-3, 5.33), but I believe that the momentum that the Fish are currently riding is very real. Note as well that Cueto is 5-6 with a highly-repsectable 3.14 ERA in 15 career starts vs. the Astros. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing MIAMI on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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08-14-23 | Astros v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* IL GOW on the MARLINS RUNLINE. Both teams are in the hunt for a wildcard spot. The Marlins just took two of three from the Yankees over the weekend and I think they offer great value to keep that momentum rolling here. The Astros have won 12 of 19 games, but I think this starting pitching matchup is very evenly matched, as Houston turns to Framber Valdez (9-7, 3.30 ERA), who in his only other start vs. the Marlins last year gave up four runs over six innings in a loss. He's coming off a fortunate no-decision as well vs. the Orioles last Tuesday, allowing six runs off eight hits over seven innings. Braxton Garrett (6-3, 4.08) gets the call for Miami here and the Marlins are 17-5 in his stats this season, most recently winning their third straight behind him in a 3-2 win over the Reds last week, he gave up two runs over six frames. The outright is possible, but the price is right here to take MIAMI on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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08-14-23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Manchester United -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Manchester United -1.5. These two teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum. Wolverhampton finished 13th last year, while Man U was third. Wolverhampton did beat Rennes 3-1 in its final tune-up, but now the level of competition gets considerably higher. The Red Devils finished third in the table, and overall they've impressed under the direction of Erik ten Hag. Man U played to an unimpressive 1-1 draw with Athletic Bilbao last time out, clearly getting caught looking ahead to this one. If recent history is any precedence though, then Man U has to be loving it chances today, as it's lost only one of its last 12 matches against Wolverhampton in EPL action. Also note that Wolverhampton has dropped its last two EPL Openers. I say a third straight is in store here, as I expect MANCHESTER UNITED to not only win this game, but will do so in blowout fashion. Good luck, NP |
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08-13-23 | Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Rockies/Dodgers. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this afternoon. LA has seen the total go UNDER in five straight after winning a third straight in this four-game series by a score of 4-1 yesterday. The Dodgers are remaining "in the moment" and not looking past these opportunities, having now won seven straight. Note though that LA has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Neither starter has been terrible. Neither has been fantastic. "Pedestrian" is likely the best way to describe both Kyle Freeland (4-12, 4.84 ERA) of the Rockies and Julio Urias (9-6, 4.39) of the Dodgers. I think the overall situation, combined with the numbers, all point to Sunday's contest finally being a higher-scoring "slug-fest." The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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08-13-23 | 49ers -3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the 49ers. The bottom line here is that San Fran has a QB battle going on, and it will throughout the preseason. Brock Purdy is expected to be the No. 1 guy, but there will be a fight for the No. 2 spot between Trey Lance and Sam Darnold. The 49ers also play to win the preseason, as Kyle Shanahan is 7-3 in his last ten preseason games. On the flip-side, Raiders' coach Josh McDaniels is just 6-6 in his preseason career. Las Vegas is thin, especially at the QB position where its backup is 37-year old Brian Hoyer. I'm banking on San Fran not only winning this game, but doing so by a sizeable margin. The play is the 49ERS. Good luck, NP |
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08-13-23 | Chiefs v. Saints -120 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFLX GOY on the Saints MONEYLINE. If this were the regular season, I'd be leaning KC here, but it's not and the Saints have plenty of things working in their favor here in Week 1 of the preseason. Andy Reid and the Chiefs are the defending champs, but there's plenty of concern heading into the season because of line-up changes. Chris Jones is a hold out, and Charles Omenihu is suspended for the first third of the seasOn. There's also plenty of young receiving talent that will need to see time to "get up to speed" with the pro game. The Chiefs aren't expected to play their starters much, or at all in this one, while the Saints are going to play their starters. That works in favor of Derek Carr to give him a chance for a few reps with the first-team offense. And then having Jameis Winston as a back-up QB is a huge bonus for the Saints obviously. The Chiefs have issues to deal with, and nothing to play for here. This is a bigger deal for the Saints, and they have a lot of different situational factors working in their favor. Forget the spread, the play is NEW ORLEANS on the MONEYLINE. Good luck, NP |
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08-13-23 | Liverpool v. Chelsea | 1-1 | Win | 270 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* VALUE WIN on the DRAW Chelsea/Liverpool. Both teams will be very aware of the importance of getting out to a "quick" start this year. Chelsea finished 12th in the EPL standings, while Liverpool was fifth. The Blues managed a 1-1 draw with Borussia Dortmund in their final preseason game, while Liverpool got past Darmstadt 3-1. If recent history is any precedence, then you have to love the DRAW here, as each of the last four matches in this series have resulted in 0-0 draws. This play is all about VALUE. Grab the DRAW in this one. Good luck, NP |
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08-12-23 | Rangers v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Rangers/Giants. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Texas has now seen the total go UNDER in five straight after last night's series opening 2-1 win here. Note though that the Rangers have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. The Giants come in desperate to reverse their fortunes, as they've dropped five of their last six, including three straight. Note though that San Fran has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Two decent starters in Andrew Heaney and Alex Cobb, but this is just a case of each being in the WRONG PLACE at the WRONG TIME today. The overall situation, combined with the above O/U trends makes the OVER the correct call in this one. Good luck, NP |
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08-12-23 | Dream +1.5 v. Sparks | Top | 74-85 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF GAME OF THE WEEK on the Dream. I think this is a great "situational" play. Atlanta is 15-14 and now third in the East ater dropping three of its last four. Most recently the Dream fell 68-67 at Seattle as five-point favorites. But with a super tough game at Las Vegas tomorrow night, Atlanta simply can't afford to "look past" the 11-18 Sparks. LA has snapped a three-game slide by winning two in a row as an underdog, but after six straight ATS covers, I believe the home side is now a tiny bit overvalued by the bookmakers now. The Sparks have a seven-game break after this, and I believe the home side gets caught "looking ahead."Â This one simply means more to ATLANTA. Good luck, NP |
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08-12-23 | Eagles v. Ravens -180 | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 35 m | Show | |
This is an 8* EXPRESS on the RAVENS on the MONEYLINE. The Ravens don't lose in the preaseason, and I'm banking on that streak continuing here, but instead of worrying about the spread, I'm going to just lay the price on the moneyline. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles will be hoping that they don't suffer a Super Bowl letdown as the loser often does the following year after they lost 38-35 to the Chiefs. The offense and defense look great for both teams. The Ravens finished 10-7 and fell to the Bengals 24-17 in the Wildcard. Baltimore is 23-0 SU in its last 23 preseason games, and all signs point to another SU victory here. Lay the price, the play is BALTIMORE on the MONEYLINE. Good luck, NP |
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08-12-23 | Jaguars -175 v. Cowboys | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 28 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the JAGUARS on the MONEYLINE. The preseason comes down to head coaching and motivation. Because at the end of the day, no one cares if they win or lose. Finding little angles that you can take advantage of is also key, and in this contest, the Jags are expected to give all their starters some game-time action in this one, and because of that, I like Jacksonville to post a SU victory (note, the Jags won 34-14 when these teams met in the preseason last year.) Good luck, NP |
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08-12-23 | Aston Villa v. Newcastle United -130 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL GOW on Newcastle United. Aston Villa finished in seventh spot last year. It managed a 2-1 win last week vs. Valencia, but now the level of competition obviously is much greater. Newcastle United finished fourth in last year's table, and they continue to excel over the last year. The Magpies slaughtered Villareal 4-0 in their final tune-up, and I'm expecting a similar destruction here as well on their own field of play. Newcastle is unbeaten in its last 14 at home in this series, and I don't see that record being broken today. Aston Villa has been a force under Unai Emery, and have an improved squad overall, but I see another disappointing result for the visiting side at the end of the day. Lay the price, the play is NEWCASTLE UNITED. Good luck, NP |
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08-11-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Mariners | 2-9 | Loss | -168 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOOD-BATH on the Orioles. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Two hot teams here. The Orioles lost the first two vs. the Astros, then bounced back and won the finale yesterday. I was on the correct side of each of those games. Each team is in a fight for a spot in the playoffs, and each comes in equally as motivated here. The starting pitching matchup in this one is even, as Baltimore goes with Kyle Gibson (11-6, 4.50 ERA), while the home side counters with Luis Castillo (7-7, 3.21.) Yes, the Mariners are 33-26 at home, but the Orioles are 35-21 on the road. They've been consistently under-rated this year, and that's the case here in this opening game. I'm laying the price and taking BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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08-11-23 | Commanders v. Browns -150 | 17-15 | Loss | -150 | 31 h 51 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Browns on the moneyline. The Commanders have a lot to work through. The Browns less so. Cleveland already has a victory under its belt after the HOF Game victory. Cleveland has two QB's competing for the third spot, while rookie Sam Howell will have to be juggled in and out of the line-up for the Commanders during the preseason. Cleveland is great at stopping the run, and that's really all this Washington offense has going for it. Forget the spread, lay the price with Cleveland on the moneyline. Good luck, NP |
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08-11-23 | Giants -145 v. Lions | 16-21 | Loss | -145 | 30 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Giants moneyline. While anything can happen at anytime in the NFL, especially in the preseason, I like the Giants here because of veteran QB Tyrod Taylor seeing the majority of the playing time. Taylor has been here and done that and should be able to easily exploit this vamilla Lions defense. Dan Campbell is just 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in his last six pre-season games, and the Lions are 0-3 SU/ATS their last three pre-season home contests. NEW YORK on the MONEYLYINE is the play. Good luck, NP |
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08-11-23 | Packers -195 v. Bengals | 36-19 | Win | 100 | 30 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the PACKERS -165 in the FIRST HALF. If you can't find a FIRST HALF line, I'll also feel comfortable laying the larger price for GREEN BAY on the MONEYLINE for the entire game. If you don't have access to either of those lines, then I also LOVE the Packers ATS for the game (-4.5 as of posting.) The Bengals are without Joe Burrow for a while, and I think Green Bay has a lot more to work on here as it tries to move on from Aaron Rodgers. Chemistry will be key for Jordan Love and this offense. Who knows how long starters will go for either side, but Green Bay's urgency to find cohesiveness on the offensive side tips the scales in favor of the visitors in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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08-11-23 | Manchester City v. Burnley OVER 3 | Top | 3-0 | Push | 0 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP PLAY on the OVER 1 -160 FIRST HALF between Man CIty and Burnley. If unable to find this line, I also like the OVER 3 for the entire contest. I'm predicting a 4-2 final. Man City is the defending champ, but it comes in hungry already after a humbling defeat on penalties vs. Arsenal in the FA Community Shield. Manchester City lost a few key players, but it's still loaded with talent with the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland. Burnely have improved a lot under Vincent Kompany, and they hit the ground running here facing such an elite opponent. All signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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08-10-23 | Vikings +4.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC GOW on the Vikings. Every team in the NFL always enters the season with BIG hopes, and that's definitely the case here for both Minnesota and Seattle. Seattle is looking to build off a decent season considering that it had to move on from Russel Wilson and the Hawks'll be out to prove that wasn't a fluke with an even better season in 2023. And Minnesota is looking to replace Pro Bowl Running Back Dalvin Cook and attempt to return to the top of the NFC North. The Vikes still have Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson and they're still part of a very winnable division. Without Aaron Rodgers to deal with, Minnesota will be trying to duplicate last year's 13-4 record. But that'll be easier said than done for Minnesota, which lost Cook and a bunch of other talent. So that really means that the Vikes are going to take this three-game preseason seriously I think, as they look to fill up some really important positions on both sides of the field. Jefferson was named the NFL's Offensive Player Of The Year last season, but neither Cousins or Jefferson is expected to see much, or ANY time at all in this one. As I said, Minnesota is definitely looking to fill some key positions, and that means that there's going to be plenty of competition. The defense was terrible last year for Minnesota. It gave up 31 points in a home playoff loss to the Giants last season, so the Vikes brought in former Miami Head Coach Brian Flores to try and help. On the other side of the field, Geno Smith was fantastic obviously for the Seahawks last year. He won Comeback Player Of the Year by finishing with 4,282 passing yards and 30 passing touchdowns and he led the Hawks to a 9-8 record and a playoff berth before then losing to the 49ers in the Wildcard round. But just like the Vikes, the Seahawks aren't expected to play Smith much at all, or IF at all and that's the same for Running Back Kenneth Walker III and the rest of the starting offense. Seattle's weak point last season was on the defensive end, and often in the preseason teams work on their weaknesses from the previous season and that will be the case I think for Pete Carrol and his staff this year. If this was a regular season game, I'd be leaning heavily to the Seahawks, but as I said you can throw out all the regular season expectations right now. I think the Vikes have more to work on, but that's a good thing in this case! Outright is possible, but the official is to grab as many points as you can. Grab the points, the play is MINNESOTA. Good luck, NP |
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08-10-23 | Lynx v. Fever +3.5 | Top | 73-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF GOW on the Fever. I like the way this one sets up for the home side from a situational stand-point. Indiana is just 7-22. It's not a good team, but this is a good spot. Off three straight SU losses, and six straight ATS losses, the value has now swung to the Fever, who are 8-2 ATS in their last ten after three or more SU losses in a row. Indiana plays with revenge as well after a 90-83 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point dog back in July. That's also significant to note, as the Fever are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. Minnesota broke a two-game slide with an 88-79 win at Chicago to move to 14-15, but with four straight games vs. Western Conference opponents after this (Seattle twice, followed by Dallas twice), I say the visitors also get caught "looking ahead." As stated off the top, a great situational play in my opinion. Grab the points, the play is INDIANA.  Good luck, NP |
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08-10-23 | Astros v. Orioles +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOWOUT on the ORIOLES RUNLINE. After taking the first two games of this series, and with a home series starting tomorrow vs. the Angels, I believe Houston will get caught looking ahead. Baltimore is hungry for revenge and to stop the bleeding. So far in this series Houston has had the upper-hand in the starting pitching department, but that's now not the case here on Thursday afternoon, with the Astros going with Hunter Brown (8-7, 4.07 ERA) and the Orioles countering with Dean Kremer (10-4, 4.61.) Give me Kremer at home here in this revenge bounce-back spot. That said, ultiately I'm laying the price for the exra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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08-09-23 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -144 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the DIAMONDBACKS on the RUNLINE. I like standing in front of trains and predicting when a team will break a losing streak, or have an extended winning streak finally come to an end. And that's going to be the case here today in two different scenarios in my opinion. The D-Backs have lost seven straight, and their starting pitcher today Merrill Kelly is 0-10 lifetime vs. the Dodgers. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab the home side on the runline option. All good things come to an end, and all losing streaks also end eventually as well. I like Arizona to snap its seven-game slide today, and Kelly (9-5, 3.21 ERA) certainly won't be lacking for motivation either. The Dodgers have won three straight, but with a four-game series at home vs. the Rockies starting tomorrow, there's reason to believe that this visiting side could get caught "looking ahead." No such luxury for the super desperate D-Backs though, who will be risking life and limb today to try and snap the slide vs. Bryce Miller (6-2, 4.26), who I believe will be overmatched by his hungry counterpart this evening. Lay this reasonable mid-sized price and grab the DIAMONDBACKS on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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08-08-23 | Sparks v. Fever OVER 158 | Top | 87-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the OVER Sparks/Fever. Here's a great situational play. Indiana has now seen the total go UNDER in six straight after its 82-73 loss at Atlanta last time out, its sixth loss in its last seven games. That fact though has only helped in driving this O/U line here on Saturday a few points lower than it normally would/should be though. The Fever play with revenge after an 81-68 loss at LA on July 27th. While the total went UNDER in that one, the rematch sets up to be a bit more wide-open in my opinion. LA just snapped a three-game slide with a 91-83 win at Washington, and there's every reason to believe that the Sparks can bring that same offensive energy to this one as well. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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08-08-23 | Marlins v. Reds UNDER 10.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP SITUATIONAL TOTAL on the UNDER Marlins/Reds. I base my picks on many different things, but here's a great situational play. Both teams are desperate for victories. The Marlins have now lost five straight after yesterday's 5-2 loss here. Note though that the Fish have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after five or more straight losses in a row. And with the win the Reds just snapped a six-game slide. They've also now seen the total go UNDER in five straight, which is signficant to note as Cincinnati has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. As stated off the top, a great "situational" play here on the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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08-07-23 | Twins -159 v. Tigers | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Twins. I'm going to lay the price and expect the surging Twins to NOT look past this opportunity, and instead come in razor focussed, ready to take advantage. Minnesota is arguably playing its best baseball of the season right now, coming in off four sraight victories, including a three-game sweep of Arizona over the weekend. The Twins now have a 4.5-game lead in the AL Central. Pablo Lopez (6-6, 4.01 ERA) has been super sharp over his last two starts and I expect him to carry that momentum over here. He'll be opposed by confirmed "gas can" Joey Wentz (2-9, 6.37), who is back in the rotation out of necessity. Wentz has struggled as a starter this season, with his opposition posting a .888 on base-plus-slugging percentage vs. him in those outings. Wentz has already lost two starts to the Twins this year, and the old saying, "the third times a charm" could not be more apt, as I do indeed expect MINNESOTA to assert itself here in the opener and beat Wentz for a third time this season in the process. Lay the price, the play is MINNESOTA. Good luck, NP |
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08-06-23 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Dodgers/Padres. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but that's only helped in driving this Sunday total a little bit higher than it normally would or should be. Both Lance Lynn (6-9, 6.47 ERA) of the Dodgers, and Rich Hill (7-10, 4.76 ERA) of the Padres have a big chance to turn their seasons around with their respective new teams. All eyes will be on these new acquisitions and I expect a bit of a "duel" here. Note as well that LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. The majority of the betting public will be quick to hammer the over, but we're going to go the other way in classic contrarian style and take the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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08-06-23 | Fever v. Dream OVER 167.5 | Top | 73-82 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-CONF TOY on the OVER Fever/Dream. These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect a much higher-scoring one here finally. Indiana has lost four of its last five. It's seen the total go UNDER in five straight after an 88-72 loss at home to Connecticut in its last outing. Note though that the Fever have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Atlanta has lost three of its last four and it's now seen the total go UNDER In three straight after a 91-71 loss to Phoenix last time out. These are two teams in dire need of a victory, and I expect this competitiveness to translate into offensive production on the court. The last time they played, ATL beat Indiana 100-94, and the total sailed well over the posted number, and I expect a similar final combined score and wide-open competitive battle here as well. Not much defense being played here today in ATL, so expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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08-05-23 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Mariners/Angels. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Seattle has now seen the total go OVER the number in five straight after taking the first two games of this series, including last night's 9-7 victory. Note though that the Mariners have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row. LA has now lost four straight. Note though that it's seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Two really decent starters who I'm expecting to go deep here. Seattle turns to George Kirby (9-8, 3.42 ERA), while the home side counters with Tyler Anderson (5-2, 4.98.)Â The overall situation, combined with the above O/U ATS stats makes the UNDER the correct call as far as the total is concerned finally. Good luck, NP |
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08-04-23 | Liberty -10 v. Lynx | Top | 76-66 | Push | 0 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the Liberty. This is a great "situational" play on New York. The Liberty are No. 1 in the East, but they've failed to cover the spread in three straight, despite going 2-1 SU. Note though that New York is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more straight ATS losses in a row. The Liberty also play with revenge after falling 88-83 at home to Minnesota just last week as 13.5-point favs, which is also significant to note, as New York is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Minnesota's three-game win streak was snapped in a 79-69 loss at Connecticut last time out and I say it's going to stumble here as well. Lay the points, the play is NEW YORK. Good luck, NP |
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08-04-23 | Mets v. Orioles -160 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Orioles. The Mets just got swept in Kansas City and I believe they're ripe for the picking here in the opener of this one. Baltimore took three of four from the Jays over the weekend. Big time starting pitching mismatch is the main reason here though, as New York goes with David Peterson (3-7, 5.92 ERA), while the home side counters with Deam Kremer (10-4, 4.66.) Peterson hasn't lasted more than two innings in any of his last six appearances, while Baltimore is 16-6 in games Kremer has started, including 5-0 in July. Lay the price with confidence, the play is BALTIMORE! Good luck, NP |
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08-04-23 | Braves v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Cubs on the runline. Two hot teams collide in Chicago today, and in what will be a highly anticipated series, I'm going to grab the home side on the runline option. For argument's sake, I'm going to classify these starters as a "wash," as Max Fried (2-1, 2.08 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while the home side turns to Kyle Hendricks (4-5, 3.49.)Â Fried returns finally to the Braves rotation, and while had a succesful rehab, there's no question that he's being thrown to the wolves here facing this red hot Cubs line-up. The outright is possible, the value here for sure is Chicago on the runline option. Good luck, NP |
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08-03-23 | Jets +1.5 v. Browns | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 243 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* PRESEASON GAME OF THE YEAR on the Jets. Motivation is a big factor to consider when betting preseason NFL. Different coaching staffs have different ideas on how to approach the preseason. For some it's a waste of time, other take it super seriously. Note though that the Jets are unbeaten (5-0-1) under Robert Saleh's direction. Starting QB's typically only see one or two series, before making way for the primary backup for the next stretch. DeShaun Watson went just 1 for 5 in his first preseason outing for the Browns last year, and that was it. Joshua Dobbs came in immediately after that and played the bulk, and we can expect a similar pattern here. Aaron Rodgers could see a few snaps though, to get accustomed to his new team. But Rodgers' backup, Zach Wilson, who would have been the starter if not for the Rodgers signing, will be extra motivated here for sure in the preseason to leave an impression that he's more than just a backup QB in this league. Cleveland's offense is based around the run, and the Jets' defense is one of the best in stopping the rush. The edge goes to New York in every metric in this contest and while I clearly feel the outright win is a possibility, my official call will be to grab the points. The play is NEW YORK. Good luck, NP |
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08-02-23 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -120 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL EAST GAME OF THE YEAR on the Blue Jays. The Jays have lost three straight. They had won four of five previous to that. Now in third in the AL East, Toronto can't afford to lose anymore games to the division leader. Baltimore has taken the first two games of this series, including yesterday's in blowout fashion vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu. Note though that the Jays are 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. They're also 8-4 in their last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. It's "gut check" time in Toronto. Essentially, "now or never" type of situation. Fortunately for Jays' fans (and us!), this is a completely lop-sided starting pitching matchup which I believe firmly swings the value in favor of the home side today. The Orioles hand the ball to Grayson Rodriguez (2-2, 6.21 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, while the home side counters with Yusei Kikuchi (8-3, 3.79, 1.28.) Big mismtatch here working in favor of Toronto and combined with the other external situational factors listed above, this becomes the very definition of "great line value" in my opinion. Lay the price, the play is TORONTO. Good luck, NP |
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08-01-23 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL WEST TOW on the OVER D-Backs/Giants. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, including in Arizona's crucial 4-3 win in yesterday's series opener, but I'm finally expecting some offensive fireworks tonight. Note that San Fran has seen the total go OVER in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Arizona has now seen the total go UNDER in four straight as well. These starters have been great, as Zac Gallen (11-5, 3.36 ERA) of the D-Backs squares off against Alex Cobb (6-3, 2.97) of the Giants. It's just a case however of each being in the WRONG PLACE at the WRONG TIME tonight. I say the overall situation points to this one eclipsing this smaller number as it gets into the latter frames. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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08-01-23 | Lynx v. Sun UNDER 162.5 | Top | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the UNDER Lynx/Sun. THese teams just played a couple of days ago and Minnesota scored the 87-83 upset road win as a 12-point dog. The Sun look to rebound and respond here, but note that Connecticut has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Minnesota has now seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after back-to-back upset road victories, including an 83-88 win at New York as a 13.5-point dog in its previous outing. Can anyone say letdown spot? Look for the Sun to be much more aggressive defensively in the rematch. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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07-31-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Orioles on the runline. They say that divisional matchups are always the most important, and that they almost always mean the most to the home side. That's true in most cases, but here's an opportunity for the Orioles to continue to distance themselves from the Jays in the wildcard race. Motivationally speaking, it's equal. These starters are evenly matched as well. Baltimore turns to Kyle Gibson (9-6, 4.68 ERA), while the home side counters with Chris Bassitt (10-5, 3.91.) In this evenly matched contest, the value swings to the ORIOLES on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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07-30-23 | Wings v. Aces -10 | Top | 91-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Las Vegas. With nearly 70% of the public money on the Wings here, I'm going the opposite way and expecting the Aces to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. These teams have played twice this year, and Dallas 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS after winning 80-78 at home as a 9.5-point dog back on July 7th. Note though that the Aces are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. Dallas has a couple days off after this before a much "easier" game at Seattle, and I think it also gets caught "looking ahead." All things considered, I feel this line should in fact be a lot larger. Grab the points, the play is the ACES. Good luck, NP |
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07-30-23 | Rangers v. Padres OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Rangers/Padres. San Diego has won the first two games of this series, 7-1 and 4-0. Note though that Texas has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a shutout road loss vs. an opponent, and in three of its last four in trying to avenge two or more straight losses vs. an opponent. We have two decent starters going head-to-head here in the Rangers' Cody Bradford (2-1, 4.62 ERA), and the Padres' Blake Snell (7-8, 2.61.) This is just a case of each being in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After getting shutdown over the first two games, I'm definitely finally expecting a response here from the vistors. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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07-30-23 | Brewers v. Braves UNDER 11.5 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Brewers/Braves. The first two games of this series have flown OVER the number, but I'm expecting more of a "duel" here on Sunday. This game means a lot more to the Brewers obviously after opening 0-2. They hand the ball to Colin Rea, who has been a consistent bright spot for Milwaukee this season witha 5-4, 4.53 ERA, 1.19 WHIP record for the Brewers. He'll be opposed by AJ Smith-Shawver, who is 1-0 with a 4.32 ERA after 16.2 innings pitched so far. Not a big sample size, but I still think he'll match Rea's effort here at home. Milwaukee has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent, and now finally here in the finale of this series, I feel this number is a couple points too high. The value has now swung to the UNDER as far as the total is concerned in this one. Good luck, NP |
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07-29-23 | Rangers v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Rangers/Padres. Both teams have been involved in some lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening. San Diego has now seen the total go UNDER in three straight after last night's 7-1 win. That's signficant to note though, as the Padres have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Neither starter has been terrible this year, but neither has been great either. Pedestrian is the perfect term to describe each players performance to this point. Martin Perez is 8-3 with a 4.91 ERA for the Rangers (a testament to the amount of run support he's received this year.) while Yu Darvish is just 7-7 with a 4.80 ERA for the Padres. I'm expecting each to "get the hook" early, and as such, all signs do point to this total going OVER the number sooner, rather than later in this one. Good luck, NP |
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07-29-23 | Phillies -167 v. Pirates | 6-7 | Loss | -167 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Phillies. The Phillies are 4-1 in their last five. They're second in the NL East behind the Braves, who they won't catch. They won't catch the Dodgers either, but after that, they're in a neck and neck race with four or five other teams for the other Wildcard spots. A couple months ago, things looked a lot bleaker for the Phillies, but they've been getting healthier as the season has progressed, and that's helped in turning things around after a slow start. Pittsburgh got out to an unreal start this season, but it fell apart a month before the All Star break and the slide into mediocrity continued in last night's 2-1 series opening loss. Now with veteran Aaron Nola (9-6, 4.25 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) on the hill, I like the Phillies to keep the good times rolling in this favorable matchup, as he'll be opposed by Quinn Priester (1-1, 9.28.)Â This is a big time starting pitching matchup and everything points to a lop-sided outcome in the end. Because of that, I'm laying the price with confidence on PHILADELPHIA. Good luck, NP |
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07-29-23 | BC v. Edmonton Elks OVER 42.5 | Top | 27-0 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* WEST-CONF TOTAL OF YEAR on the OVER Lions/Elks. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring game here than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. BC is now 5-1 overall after a 19-9 win over Saskatchewan at home last weekend. But the Lions will have their hands full here with the 0-7 Elks, who just want to snap the winless streak. They play with revenge after a 22-0 loss in BC back in Week 2, but note that the Elks have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent. Edmonton has posted 43 points combined over its last two games, and I'm expecting it to continue to progress on the offensive side of the ball this revenge-scenario. Everything points to a faster-paced, and ultimately higher-scoring game than what this O/U line is suggesting. So the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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07-28-23 | Brewers v. Braves OVER 10 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL TOM on the OVER Brewers/Braves. Both sides have been playing to some lower-scoring games of late, but I believe those trends end this evening. Milwaukee has seen the total go UNDER in five straight after taking two of three from the Reds earlier in the week. Note though that the Brewers have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Atlanta dropped both games vs. the Red Sox earlier in the week and it's now seen the total go UNDER in four straight. That includes in two of three vs. the Brewers prior to the series at Boston, in which the Braves went 2-1 in. These are actually two really decent starters, as Adrian Houser is 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA for the Brewers, while Yonis Chirinos is 4-4 with a 4.02 ERA for the Braves. This though is just a case of each of these guys being in the WRONG PLACE at the WRONG TIME. The overall situation, combined with these stats/numbers/trends all point to this one eclipsing the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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07-27-23 | Cubs -104 v. Cardinals | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Cubs. After winning five straight, and with a chance to move back to .500, I like the Cubs to do just that this evening in St. Louis. These teams played last weekend and the Cubs went 3-1 in the four game series. The Cards can only play spoiler these days, and I just don't see them getting too excited here to try and stop the Cubs from reaching .500 today. The starting pitching matchup favors Chicago, as the Cubs hand the ball to Justin Steele, while the home side counters with Miles Mikolas. Steele is 10-3 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, while Mikolas is is 6-5 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Mikolas gave up 11 hits and five runs against the Cubs last week and I think he's in for another short night tonight as well. The Cubs offense is now rated in the Top 10 and I expect that momentum to get carried over. The play is CHICAGO. Good luck, NP |
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07-26-23 | Orioles v. Phillies -108 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Phillies. The Phillies were on the verge of defeat last night, but rallied with two outs in the bottom of the ninth to beat the Orioles 3-2. Now instead of trying to avoid the series sweep, they're trying to win the series off arguably the hottest team in baseball. If any team was "due" for some regression, surely it's the Orioles. I say that Kyle Bradish (6-5, 3.05 ERA) takes a step back here as well finally in this difficult road venue. He'll be opposed by Ranger Suarez (2-5, 4.07), who I believe gets the slight advantage here because of throwing in front of the home town crowd. Philadelphia is hungry for victories, and I believe it rides the wave of emotion from last night's victory to another solid decision here in the series finale. The play is the PHILLIES. Good luck, NP |
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07-25-23 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL TOW on the UNDER Cards/D-Backs. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, including in the Cardinals' 10-6 upset win at Arizona last night. St. Louis has seen the total go OVER in three straight now, but note that the Cards have seen the total go UNDER in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. And Arizona has seen the total go UNDER in five of its last six in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. While only 1-7 this year for St. Louis, Steven Matz still owns a respectable 4.67 ERA and I think the veteran will be able to match his counterpart Merril Kellly, who is 9-4 with a 3.22 ERA for the Diamondbacks. I'm expecting a battle between these two veterans and when the smoke does clear at the end of this one, all signs point to it being a lower-scoring defensive UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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07-25-23 | Mercury v. Dream OVER 165 | Top | 65-78 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the OVER Mercury/Dream. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end in what I anticipate will be a wide-open offensive non-conference affair between two teams pushing hard for the victory. Phoenix is just 6-16 and No. 5 in the West, while Atlanta is 12-10 and coming off B2B SU/ATS losses to Connecticut. Atlanta has now seen the total go UNDER in six straight, while Phoenix has seen it go UNDER in three straight. Note though that the Mercury have seen the total go OVER in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. I don't see a lot of defense being played here, so the play is indeed on the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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07-24-23 | Blue Jays v. Dodgers UNDER 9.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Jays/Dodgers. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating more of a "duel" here finally between these interleague rivals on the West Coast here on Monday night. The Jays went 1-1 in Seattle over the weekend, while LA took two of three at the Rangers, falling 8-4 last night. All three games went OVER the number, and the Dodgers have now seen the total eclipse the posted number in six straight. Despite that though, note that LA has still seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. The Jays go with Jose Berrios, who is 8-7 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He's likely been the most consistent starter for Toronto this year. The home side counters with Michael Grove, who is just 2-2 with a 6.40 ERA. He's coming off a gem though, allowing one run over five innings while posting four K's in a 10-3 win over Baltimore. I expect these starters to battle into the latter frames, and when taking into account the rest of the above listed factors, the UNDER is for sure the correct call in my opinion as far as the total is concerned in this contest. Good luck, NP |
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07-23-23 | Fever v. Liberty UNDER 170.5 | Top | 83-101 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Fever/Liberty. Here's a great situational play. New York is 15-5 and No. 2 in the East after winning five of its last six SU. Over that span though it's gone 0-5 ATS, and it's seen the total go OVER the number in three straight. Note though that the Liberty have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. These teams played in Indiana last week, and the Liberty managed the 95-87 OT win as 10.5-point favorites. While that total went OVER the number as well, everything points to a much more defensive battle this time around. All of these high-scoring games that each side has been involved in lately has also helped in pushing this O/U line a bit higher than it really should be. This number is indeed a little high, so the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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07-23-23 | Dodgers v. Rangers UNDER 10 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTIMATE TOTAL on the UNDER Dodgers/Rangers. The first two games of this series have flown well OVER the number in LA's two blowout victories. When faced against the best in the league, the Rangers are looking pretty pedestrian. That's the case here again today with this line, as Martin Perez is the slight dog at home here. Regardless, note that the Rangers have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. Emmet Sheehan is 3-0 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.17 WHIP for LA, while Perez is 7-3 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.50 WHIP for the Rangers. The public is quick to back another high-scoring affair in this interleague finale, but all signs finally point to a bit of a "duel" here on Sunday in my opinion. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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07-23-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Rays | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Orioles. This has been a back and forth series so far, with each divisional foe taking one game apiece. Baltimore came into this series red hot, while the Rays have been pretty pedestrian over the last month or so. Regardless, in what I anticipate will be another tightly contested affair, one which will almost assuredly be decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to recommend to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. This is a great starting pitching matchup working in favor of Baltimore today, as the visitors go with Tyler Wells (7-5, 3.54 ERA). The home side counters with the erratic Taj Bradley (5-6, 5.29.) The play is BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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07-22-23 | Sky -120 v. Storm | Top | 90-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Chicago Sky. At 8-13, the Chicago Sky are unable to "look past" anyone. That's definitely the case here coming in on a four-game losing SU/ATS streak, the Sky have a prime opportunity here to get back into the winner's circle. With a home game vs. league-leading Las Vegas, this game takes on added importance for the Sky. Seattle is just 4-17 and it's off a 79-63 loss to Las Vegas. The Storm have won two straight ATS, but with a date at New York up next, I think Seattle gets caught looking ahead and throws in the white towel early against this relentless Sky attack that I anticipate. Lay the point, the play is CHICAGO. Good luck, NP |
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07-22-23 | Blue Jays v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 105 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Jays/Mariners. The Mariners managed a come-from-behind 3-2 win in yesterday's series opener, but I'm expecting some more offensive fireworks here on Saturday afternoon. It's perfect weather for baseball right now in the PNW, so this normally pitcher-friendly park will be less so this afternoon. The Jays have now seen the total go UNDER in three straight, which is significant to note as Toronto has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. These are two really decent starter, with the Jays handing the ball to Kevin Gausman (7-5, 3.03 ERA), and the Mariners countering with Logan Gilbert (8-5, 3.65.)Â The overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U trend though swings the pendulum in favor of a slightly higher-scoring game here, as I do expect this one to sneak over this tiny number after these starters make their departure. This number is a little low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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07-22-23 | Dodgers v. Rangers +113 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* IL GOW on the Rangers. The Dodgers pulled away for the 11-5 win in yesterday's series opener, but with what I feel is the superior starter on the hill for htem here, I like the Rangers to bounce back on Saturday afternoon. Note that Texas is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a home loss against an opponent. Bobby Miller is 5-1 with a 4.25 ERA for the Dodgers. He's been great, but I say he's in over his head here facing Dane Dunning of the Rangers, who is 8-2 with a 2.82 ERA this season (he's 5-0 at home.)Â A great situational play (and a great price,) as all signs point to TEXAS bouncing-back. Good luck, NP |
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07-21-23 | Braves v. Brewers +1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -146 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER SPECIAL on the Brewers. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay this price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Braves had lost four in a row before yesterday's 7-5 win. Now they face a red hot Milwaukee side that's gone 8-2 in its last ten, including just taking two of three from Philadelphia. I give the slight nod to Freddy Peralta (6-7, 4.41 ERA) here as well throwing at home over his counterpart Mike Soroka (1-1, 5.40.)Â Overall this is a really great line value for the home side on the runline option. The play is MILWAUKEE on the RUNLINE. Good luck, NP |
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07-21-23 | Toronto v. Hamilton UNDER 50.5 | Top | 31-15 | Win | 100 | 36 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERNECE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Argos/Ti-Cats. The defending Grey Cup Champion Toronto Argonauts are 4-0 SU/ATS and they've seen the last three of their games eclipse the posted number as far as the total is concerned. Note though that Toronto has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. These teams played in Week 2 in Hamilton, which was the Argos first game of the year, and Toronto left there with the 32-14 win and cover, the total in that one stayed UNDER the posted number of 47, and I feel we'll see a similar final combined score here as well. After three straight SU/ATS losses in a row, Hamilton has won two straight SU/ATS. That includes last week's high-scoring 37-29 win at Edmonton. The Ti-Cats though have been trading high-scoring games, with lower-scoring ones since Week 1 though, and after last week's high-scoring "shootout," I believe this strong pattern continues this weekend. Toronto plays a neutral-field game against Saskatchewan next week, so not only is this a minor letdown spot after the four straight wins, but it's also a minor look-ahead position. Usually when you combine those two factors, you get a "trap" game. Finally, note that Hamilton has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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07-21-23 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Cards/Cubs. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this afternoon. The Cards have seen the total go OVER in seven of their last eight, while Chicago has seen the total go OVER in nine straight. But that's only helped in driving this total here on Friday a few points higher than it normally would be. The visitors go with Jack Flaherty, who is battle-tested at 7-5 with a 4.29 ERA, while the home side counters with Justin Steele, who is 9-3 with a 2.96 ERA. I'm anticipating a classic "duel" here early on Friday afternoon between these starters, and ultimatley that'll also help in driving this total UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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07-20-23 | Aces v. Storm +18.5 | Top | 79-63 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Storm. Here is a great situational play, as Seattle plays with double revenge in this one after two earlier SU/ATS losses (and note that the Storm are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row.) Las Vegas is 19-2 and not only No. 1 in the West, but easily No. 1 in the league. A big All Star Weekend hangover is about to occur though in my opinion, with the Storm coming in as the more organized and focused side. Outright win?! I'm definitely not calling for that. But the overall situation, combined with the trends and numbers I listed above, all collide here and point to this contest being a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, the play is SEATTLE. Good luck, NP |
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07-20-23 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Cardinals/Cubs. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Cards have now won five straight after taking all three vs. the Marlins in their first series back from the break. Two of three went OVER the number and now St. Louis has seen the total go OVER in five of its last six. The Cubs went 2-1 in their first second-half series vs. the Nationals, and all three games went OVER the number. Chicago has now seen the total go OVER the number in eight straight. The value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned in my opinion. So here we have two experienced starters going head-to-head as well. Steven Matz is 0-7 for St. Louis, despite a respectable 4.86 ERA. His counterpart Marcus Stroman though is 10-6 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. I'm anticipating a classic "duel" here, and when you take into account the rest of the situational and trend-based factors listed above, they all smash together here to make the UNDER the correct call in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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07-20-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Rays | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ULTIMATE BEST BEST on the Orioles runline. Baltimore went into the break on a huge run, but then it dropped the first two games in the second half at home to the Dodgers. But then the Orioles bounced back with an 8-5 win in yesterday's series finale and I believe that they'll keep that momentum rolling here. The Rays continue to slide and the Orioles can smell the blood in the water after Tampa Bay lost all three games in Texas in their first series after the Mid-Summer Classic. I'll call these starters a "wash," as Kyle Gibson is 9-6 with a 4.77 ERA for the Orioles, while Tyler Glasnow is 3-3 with a 3.78 ERA for the Rays. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm backing BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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07-19-23 | Nationals v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 3-8 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SPECIAL on the UNDER Nationals/Cubs. I had a play on the UNDER in the Cubs' 17-3 win last night, and while that play obviously was a loser, I do now FINALLY expect a lower-scoring "duel" here between these clubs on Wednesday. Chicago has now seen the total go OVER in seven straight, while Washignton has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five straight (and note that the Nats have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.)Â Trevor Williams is scheduled for the Nats, and he's 5-5 with a 4.43 ERA and 73 to 31 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He'll be opposed by Kyle Hendricks, who is 3-4 with a 3.57 ERA. We like both veterans and expect them to battle into the latter frames. For a number of different reasons, we like this one to stay UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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07-19-23 | Dodgers v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL TOTAL on the UNDER Angels/Orioles. This is a super interesting series, LA came out of the break and won the first game by a score of 6-4, and then yesterday's contest by a score of 10-3. Note that Baltimore has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. For this WEdnesday game I'm going to focus on the starting pitching, and in our opinion, these starting pitchers will be the main focus and story line once it's all said and done. These teams have been great at the plate of course this season, but they also sport some of the best pitching numbers as well, and we have two really decent starters going head to head here. The Dodgers turn to Julio Urias, who is 7-5 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He most recently scattered one hit over six scoreless innings to go along with seven strikeouts in a 4-0 victory over the Mets in his last outing. And then Orioles counter with Dean Kremer, who is 10-4 with a 4.59 ERA and 100 to 17 strikeout to walk ratio. He's also coming off a really strong outing, going six innings and allowing two hits and one run to go along with eight strikeouts. When it comes to starting pitching, there's no greater indicator to judge than "RECENT FORM," and each of these guys looks really LOCKED IN to us right now. Because of that, we're taking the UNDER in this intriguing interleague matchup on Wednesay afternoon. Good luck, NP |
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07-19-23 | Fever v. Mystics UNDER 157.5 | Top | 82-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Fever/Mystics. These teams return to action in the second half and I believe we're in store for a really defensive affair. Washington saw the total go "over" the number in three straight before the break (including in a 96-88 win here at home vs. Indiana as a 1-point dog), which is significant to note here, as the Mystics have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in three of their last four after paying to three or more straight "overs" in a row. And note that Indiana has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss against an opponent. This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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07-18-23 | Nationals v. Cubs UNDER 9 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Nats/Cubs. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here finally this evening. The Nationals have now seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after last night's 7-5 series opening win here, while Chicago has now seen the total go OVER the number in six straight (but note that the Cubs have seen the total go UNDER the number in five of their last six in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.)Â Trevor Williams gets the nod for the visiting side and he's 5-5 with a 4.42 ERA, while Jameson Taillon is only 3-6 with a 6.15 ERA for the Cubs. Two teams hoping for something positive in the second half, and two starting pitchers looking to rebound off uncharacteristic poor first halves. When you add up all of these factors, I say we finally have ourselves a lower-scoring outcome between these teams. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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07-17-23 | Yankees v. Angels UNDER 9 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* total on the UNDER Yanks/Angels. Both teams have been playing to several higer-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening. New York lost two of three at the Rockies over the weekend. Yeterday's 8-7 loss flew well OVER th enumber of 11. Note though that the Yanks have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four off an upset road loss as a -200 or greater favorite. The Angels have now seen the total go OVER the number in eight straight after losing two of three to Houston over the weekend. No one could be happier to see the second half of MLB start that Yankees' starter Luis Severino, who is 1-4 with a 7.38 ERA. Look for much better results from the veteran over the second half (is what I am definitely expecting anyways.) The home side counters with Griffin Canning, who put together a solid first half by going 6-4 with a 4.60 ERA. Everything points to a lower-scoring "duel" here on the West Coast on Monday night, so the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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07-17-23 | Nationals v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* total on the UNDER Nationals/Cubs. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to even this evening. The Nationals have seen the total go OVER the number in three straight after dropping two of three to the Cards over the weekend. Note though that the Nats have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. The Cubs have now seen the total go OVER the number in seven straight after losing two of three to Boston this weekend, including an 11-5 setback yesterday (note though that Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last seven off a home loss as a favorite.) McKenzie Gore is 4-7 with a 4.42 ERA for the Nats, while Drew Smyly is 7-5 with a 4.30 ERA for the Cubs. I'm expecting a duel here between these two hungry starters, and all of these different factors now come together to indeed make the UNDER the correct call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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07-17-23 | Marlins v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | 4-6 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* total on the UNDER Marlins/Cards. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Miami lost all three at Baltimore over the weekend and it's seen the total fly OVER in five of its last six overall. St. Louis has now won four of its last five. It saw all three of its totals vs. Washington fly OVER the number over the weekend, but note that the Cards have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. Two very decent starters going head-to-head and I anticipate a classic "duel" here. Jesus Luzards is 8-5 with a 3.29 ERA for the Marlins, while Mike Mikolas is 5-5 with a 4.12 ERA for the Cards. Everything points to this one staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done. GOod luck, NP |
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07-16-23 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER On the UNDER Astros/Angels. The first two games of this series have flown OVER the number, but I'm finally expecting more of a "duel" here on Sunday night between two highly-motivated starting pitchers. LA has now seen the total go OVER in seven straight, while the Astros have seen it go over in the first two of this series. Christian Javier has once again been a rock for the Astros this year, as he enters 7-1 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He'll be opposed by veteran Tim Anderson, who is 4-2 with a 5.25 ERA. Look for the extra time off between starts to benefit these guys and then look for this total to stay UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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07-15-23 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 12-13 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Astros/Angels. Houston won yesterday's series opener by a score of 7-5, but I'm anticipating more of a defensive "duel" here on Saturday. The Angels have now seen the total go OVER the number in six straight. They've also lost six straight. Despite yesterday's high-scoring loss though, note that LA has still seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of it slast ten after five or more straight losses in a row. These two starters ere super solid over the first half, and there's no reason no to believe that consistency won't carry over here. The visitors hand the ball to Framber Valdez, who is 7-6 with a 2.51 ERA, while the home side counters with Reid Detmers, who is 2-6 with a 4.31 ERA. Everything points to a "duel," and combined with all of these other factors, the play is indeed on the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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07-15-23 | Toronto FC v. Chicago Fire -145 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* MLS GOW on the Chicago Fire. Toronto FC is poor at home, but it's even worse on the road. It arrives in Chicago at 3-10 and off a fifth straight loss in a 1-0 setback to St. Louis. These teams drew 0-0 in Toronto back on May 31st, but now I expect Chicago to lay the hammer down. The Fire are now 7-7 after winning their second straight and fourth in their last five in a dominant 3-0 victory over Montreal. When it comes to playing moneyline home favorites, this is more on the expensive side as far as MLS is concerned. Most of the time, this league is quite diverse, but in this case I absolutely feel this line could/should be a lot larger. Lay the price with confidence, the play is CHICAGO. Good luck, NP |
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07-15-23 | Calgary +3 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 125 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* WEST-CONF GOY on the Stampeders. Calgary is 1-3 and Saskatchewan is 3-1. The Stamps will be risking life and limb to avoid a 1-4 hole, and the play iwth the added incentive of revenge here as well after falling 29-26 in OT to Saskatchewan in Week 3 (and note that Calgary is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent.) Calgary is off the 24-11 road loss at Winnipeg, while Saskatchewan barely held on for the 12-11 win over Edmonton last week at home as a 7.5-point favorite. The Stamps are significantly better in every metric on both sides of the ball over the Elks, and they have the motivational, external and trend based factors also all working in their favor here. The outright is possible, but grab as many points as you can. The play is CALGARY. Good luck, NP |
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07-14-23 | Astros v. Angels -158 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -158 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Angels. Shohei Ohtani did not pitch in the All-Star game, but batted second in the AL order. He likely would have been the starting pitcher if he did decide to take the mound. He was last year. Ohtani enters the second half with a chip on his shoulder and I think he'll just be too much for counterpart JP France and the Astros to handle. France is 4-3 with a 3.26 ERA, and overall he's been good this year, but this is just a case of the Houston starter being in the wrong place at the wrong time. With a win, LA moves back to .500 and gets the second half started off with a win in front of the home town crowd, a place where they're still a respectable 23-20 thus far. After faltering down the stretch of the first half, I'm expecting a response from the Angels here with their "ace" on the mound. Lay the price, the play is LA. Good luck, NP |
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07-14-23 | Marlins v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Marlins/Orioles. After a big first half from both clubs, they'll be hoping that they don't suffer too much regression here in the second half. Two starters that will be instrumental in their team's success in the second half collide here on Friday night, and in my opinion runs are going to be at a premium. Sandy Alcantara is 3-7 with a 4.72 ERA for the Marlins. He closed out the first half with a solid start against the Phillies, going seven innings and posting five K's while allowing one run. I think Alcantara will have a much more consistent/typical looking second half, after struggling in the first. The Orioles counter with Deam Kremer, who is 9-4 with a 4.78 ERA. Kremer has been a consistent bright spot for the Orioles this season, he has a 95 to 24 strikeout to walk ratio, and he's 8-2 with a 4.01 ERA in all "NIGHT" games this year. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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07-14-23 | Toronto v. Montreal +5.5 | Top | 35-27 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* CFL ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Montreal Alouettes. Honestly, I'm not a big "player" guy. Players don't usually factor into my equation when I'm handicapping games. If a player is out, then his absence is reflected in the line. We're in 2023 fellas, the bookmakers are sharper than they've ever been at any other time in history. I'm not that great at individual player assessment, and I've struggled at Fantasy Sports, which is obviously very difficult and completely player driven. I've always been much better at looking at a team as a whole and then giving an assessment. I'm a situational handicapper. I've always felt that being flexible with your approach when it comes to handicapping is the best, and so I look at many different factors throughout the regular season like "revenge" etc, more closely than trying to handicap the players themselves. I'm looking at line movement. I'm looking at where the public money is, as I'm also definitely a contrarian at heart, when most of the people are going on way, I'm invariably going the other. And so this pick on Montreal definitely falls right into my wheelhouse as far as being a great situational play in my opinion. The Toronto Argonauts are the defending Grey Cup Champs. They're 3-0 to open the season, both straight up and against the spread, but I think last week's bye came at the worst time possible for the Argos. Chemistry and timing is a very real thing in sports obviously, and I think that "firing on all cylinders" offense which just beat BC 45-24 at home two weeks ago, will come into this one a bit flat to begin with. The Alouettes are now 2-2 straight up and against the spread. Montreal started the season 2-0, but it's since dropped two straight, including last week's game at BC by a score of 35-19. So Montreal is the more motivated team here for sure. It also plays with a sense of revenge. This is the first meeting of the year between the clubs this season, but Toronto took three of four in the series last season. That includes a 34-27 win in the East Division Final, so revenge is big time on the minds of the Alouettes here today. One last thing to point out as well, is that Montreal has in fact had a lot of success here at home against the Argos, winning six of the last seven in the series played here. Everything points to at least the comfortable cover. Grab the points, the play is MONTREAL. Good luck, NP |
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07-13-23 | Hamilton v. Edmonton Elks OVER 42.5 | Top | 37-29 | Win | 100 | 36 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Ti-Cats/Elks. It's safe to say that neither team can be happy where it's at currently at this point of the season. Hamilton is 1-3, including 0-2 on the road, but it's still favored here in Edmonton vs. an 0-5 Elks side. Hamilton has been trading high-scoring games, with low-scoring ones so far this year, and off its first win of the year, a 21-13 win at home over Ottawa (that was my CFL Eastern Conference Game of the Year, don't miss my 10* Western Conference Game of the Year which goes this weekend!), I look for this O/U pattern to continue here in Week 6. Edmonton is beyond desperate. The Elks are on the ropes and essentially already planning for next year. But, they'll still be risking life and limb here for a better result and their first victory of the season. I'm expecting a more wide-open offensive affair than what this O/U line is suggesting. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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07-12-23 | Atlanta United v. New England -115 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 58 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE GOY on the New England Revolution. New England is 10-4, but off a 2-1 loss at the Red Bulls, I like the Revs to dig deep here and deliver at home with a bounce back effort. These teams did play in Atlanta back on May 31st, and they played to a 3-3 draw. That was Atlanta United FC's big chance, and it blew it on home soil. Atlanta is 9-5, but off consecutive victories, I suspect regression in this difficult road venue, especially with an upcoming home game vs. OCSC. Gonzalo Pineda's team lacks defensive consistency, having already conceded 35 goals. Atlanta United has also won only one of its last ten away games this year. New England now only has a two-point lead over Atlanta United in the Eastern Conference, so this now becomes the Revs most important contest of the season so far. I look for New England to indeed bounce back here at home and keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. The play is the REVS. Good luck, NP |
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