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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-13-24 | UC San Diego v. Cal Poly +10.5 | Top | 86-61 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG WEST GOY on Cal Poly Slo. This one sets up well from a situational stand point for the home side. UC San Diego 10-6, including 3-3 on the road, while Cal Poly Slo is 4-13, including 3-4 at home. After four SU victories and five straight ATS wins though, I think the visiting side is now overvalued here. Especially with a road game at No. 1 UCI this coming week. This is a classic letdown + look-ahead = TRAP GAME. The Mustangs have lost five straight after a 71-56 setback at UCRV, but note that Cal Poly Slo is in fact a near-perfect 4-1 ATS in its last five after five or more SU losses in a row. I'm not predicting an outright upset or anything, but I do expect the home side to go down fighting until the final horn. Grab the points, the play is CAL POLY SLO. Good luck, NP |
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01-13-24 | Dolphins v. Chiefs OVER 43.5 | Top | 7-26 | Loss | -115 | 126 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* WC TOY on the OVER Dolphins/Chiefs. I'm expecting a higher-scoring shootout in this one. Kansas City finished the season by winning three of its last four and an 11-6 record. The Chiefs saw the total go UNDER in the final three games, but note that KC has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. These teams played in early November and the Chiefs won 21-14 here, and while that game did stay below the posted number, the overall situation that each team now finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends do make the OVER the correct call this time around. Note that Miami has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. The Dolphins finished 11-6 as well, but they stumbled down the stretch, losing the final two games, including a crucial one to Buffalo last week. I just can't see either team sitting back and waiting for the other to make the first mistake here. It's going to be full speed ahead and a lot more "wide open" than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe as far as the total is concerned. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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01-13-24 | Browns v. Texans +3 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 123 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Texans. Houston won its first division title since 2019 and I think it'll carry that momentum over here at home. This is a rematch for Houston after it fell 36-22 at home to the Browns on X-Mas Eve. While Joe Flacco caught the Texans off-guard in that one, I don't think the "old dog" has anymore "tricks" up his sleeve. CJ Stroud will be playing this time and I think he'll easily match his now overrated counterpart. Flacco's story has been great to this point, but he's still on the tail end of his career. Stroud returned in last week's crucial contest and looked superb, going 20 of 26 for 264 yards and two TD's. Flacco was 5-0 as a starter in the Wildcard Round, so he's no stranger to these types of games, but that was then, and this is now. Look for Stroud to be the one to put the pressure on today and while the outright win is obviously possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with HOUSTON. Good luck, NP |
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01-13-24 | Fulham v. Chelsea -163 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL GOM on Chelsea. Fulham is currently in 13th and it's off a listless 2-1 defeat to Liverpool in the EFL Cup this past week and I just can't see this team mounting much (or any!) of an attack here in this difficult road venue. Chelsea is in tenth spot and it's admittedly been inconsistent this season. A date at home vs. Fulham is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked though. The Blues will be especially motivated here as well after their humbling 1-0 loss at Middlesbrough mid-week. But if history is any precedence, then Chelsea has to be loving its chances as it's won 51 of the 90 between the clubs, with Fulham posting 12 victories. It's also unbeaten at home in its last 18 in this series. Yes, Chelsea is a shadow of its former self, but it still has all the pieces, combined with the motivation and home pitch advantage working in its favor here and I say that'll be MORE than enough to get the job done in the end. The play is indeed on CHELSEA. Good luck, NP |
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01-12-24 | Warriors v. Bulls UNDER 229.5 | Top | 140-131 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Warriors/Bulls. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much tighter and ultimately lower-scoring battle here between two clubs in need of a victory. Golden State comes to town at 17-19, while the Bulls are 18-21. Golden State has lost three of its last four, including two in a row. Most recently it was a humbling 141-105 home loss to New Orleans. It's also seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last six. After allowing 277 combined points the last two games though, I expect the visitors to double down here defensively to open up this road trip. Chicago sets up well to have a lower-scoring game as well here from a situational stand point, as the Bulls enter having won three straight SU/ATS, including the last two in OT. Expect fatigue to be an issue here for the Bulls and for the home side to also put an added emphasis on protecting the perimeter with a game at San Antonio the following night. Everything points to the UNDER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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01-11-24 | San Francisco v. San Diego UNDER 145 | Top | 83-63 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* WEST COAST TOY on the UNDER San Francisco/San Diego. The overall situation in this one points to a much tighter and ultimately lower-scoring affair in this one in my opinion. San Francisco is 12-4 and San Diego is 10-7. The Dons are just 2-2 on the road though, while the Toreros are 9-2 at home. San Diego is just 1-2 SU in its last three and it's now seen the total go OVER in three straight after a 101-74 loss at Gonzaga. That's important for us as bettors to take note of though, becuase the Toreros have in fact seen the total UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. San Francisco has won four straight and it's seen the total go OVER in four straight as well. Despite its 92-88 OT road win as a 19.5-point favorite at Pacific last time out flying OVER the number, note that the Dons have still seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. San Fran won't want to be caught "off guard" here on the road like that again and will be looking to "double down" defensively after that "near scare" last time out. When you add up all of the above factors, everything points to this one staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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01-11-24 | Flames v. Coyotes UNDER 6 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION TOY on the UNDER Flames/Coyotes. Everything points to a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring affair here between these two hungry teams in my opinion. The overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends point to this being a very defensive affair. Calgary is 18-18-1-4, while Arizona is 20-17-2-0. The Flames snapped a two-game slide with a 6-3 win over Ottawa. They've seen the total go OVER in three of their last four, but with an upcoming game at Las Vegas, I think the visitors will be caught looking ahead to that much more high-profile matchup and will be looking to "same some gas" for that matchup. Arizona snapped a three-game slide with a 4-3 OT win over Boston here last time out, but note that the Coyotes have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Expect a lot of hitting and back-checking in this one and ultimatley the pace of this contest will lead this game staying well UNDER the posted number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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01-11-24 | Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 234 | Top | 77-139 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* NORTHWEST TOY on the UNDER Blazers/Thunder. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to much more of a defensive affair here in my opinion finally. Portland is just 10-26, including only 5-15 on the road. Oklahoma City is 25-11, including 14-5 at home. Portland has lost four of its last five, including a listless 112-84 setback at the Knicks last time out. The Blazers lost 134-91 to OKC back on November 19th and I think they'll struggle to eclipse the century mark tonight as well. And with a game at Minnesota tomorrow night, the visitors will get caught looking ahead as they try to save some gas for that difficult contst. And for the Thunder, they've now seen the total go OVER the number in five straight after their 128-120 win at Miami, which is significant to note as they've seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. The overall situation that each team finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends all point to this being a MUCH more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP                             |
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01-10-24 | Washington State +6.5 v. USC | Top | 72-64 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC 12 GOY on Washington State. While I do think an outright win is a possibility, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Washington State is 10-5 and USC is 8-7. The Cougars though have now lost four straight ATS after their most recent 89-84 loss to Oregon as a 2.5-point favorite. That's now back-to-back conference losses as a favorite and despite the last setback though, note that WSU is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more straight ATS losses in a row. USC is coming off back-to-back conference home wins over Cal and Stanford. The Trojans were big favorites in each and covered, but now I feel they're getting a little TOO much respect here. Honestly the way these teams matchup, I feel that the visitors have a legitimate shot at bouncing back and winning this one outright, while at the same time, everything now points to a classic letdown in opinion for the home side. Grab the points, the play is indeed on WASHINGTON STATE. Good luck, NP |
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01-09-24 | Air Force +15.5 v. Nevada | Top | 54-67 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* MW GOY on Air Force. With over 75% of the early public money on the 14-1 home side, me and my clients are going to go the other way and grab the 7-6 Air Force Falcons, who are 3-1 on the road. Yes, Nevada is 8-0 at home, but I still think this is WAY too many points for the Wolfpack to have to cover here. With 10-4 Boise State coming to town this weekend, will Nevada get caught "looking ahead?!" It very well could. The possibility is there for sure anyways. No such luxury for Air Force though, which has lost four straight SU/ATS. That however is significant to note here as despite falling 88-60 to Utah State last time out, the Falcons are still 8-4 ATS in their last 12 after three or more straight SU/ATS setbacks in a row. The conditions are all correct here for a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, the play is AIR FORCE. Good luck, NP |
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01-08-24 | Washington v. Michigan -4.5 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 127 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* GOW on Michigan. With nearly 65% of the early public money on Washington, I'm going the other way here and laying the points and expecting Michigan to find a way to get the job done before the end of the night. This is a classic matchup of offense vs. defense, and as the old saying goes: "Defense Wins Championships!" This is the first time in the CFP era that two undefeated teams have met in the Final game. The Wolverines, behind star RB Blake Corum, have finally made it to the big game and I'm expecting them to make the most of it. I really respect Washington. I think Michael Penix Jr. is a phenomenal player. But Penix Jr. has yet to face a defense as nasty and opportunistic as this Wolverines' unit. The Wolverines also got some big-time play from QB JJ McCarthy in the 27-20 OT win over Alabama and I just don't see much difference between these two starting pivots. The Huskies' defense bent, didn't break this year, but here in the "Big Game," that's simply NOT going to be good enough. While the majority go one way, me and my growing list of satisfied clients are going the other. Go Blue! The play is MICHIGAN. Good luck, NP |
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01-08-24 | Rockets v. Heat OVER 219 | Top | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOW on the OVER Rockets/Heat. These two teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much more wide-open and less intense defensive matchup here between these two non-conference opponents. It's a great situational play. Houston is just 3-10 on the road, while Miami is 9-6 at home. The Rockets are playing well this year, better than almost everyone expected, as they've won three of their last four. That includes an upset 112-108 victory over Milwaukee as seven point dogs last time out. Note though that Houston has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Miami is moving in the opposite direction over the last two weeks, going just 2-3 in its last five. It's seen the total go UNDER in five straight now, but that's significant for us to take note of us as the Heat have in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.) Look for this faster-paced affair to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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01-08-24 | McNeese State v. Northwestern State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 68-59 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* SOUTHLAND TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER McNeese State/Northwestern State. This is a great situational play. McNeese State and Northwestern State have both been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm finally anticipating more of a defensive battle here on Monday night. McNeese State is 12-2, and Northwestern State is 2-12. The Cowboys are 4-2 on the road, while the Demons are 2-2 at home. McNeese State has won seven in a row. It's also seen the total go OVER the number in three straight, which is significant to note as the Cowboys have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Northwestern State has also played to three straight OVERs as well, but note that the Demons have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Look for this lop-sided mismatch to be MUCH more of a defensive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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01-07-24 | Clippers v. Lakers +4.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* BAIL-OUT BLOOD-BATH on the Lakers. The Lakers already beat the Clippers this year 130-125 in OT here on November 1st. The Lakers would go on shortly after to win the In-Season Tournament, but they've since come back down to Earth and enter having lost three straight SU and ATS. That's important to note though, as the Lakers are in fact 7-2 ATS in their last nine after three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. I don't usually play against teams that are playing with revenge, but after five straight SU/ATS victories in a row, I believe the Clippers are now getting a little TOO much respect here from the oddsmakers (and public, with nearly 70% of the early public money on the Clippers!), as the Clippers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after five or more straight SU/ATS victories in a row. The Clippers welcome Phoenix here tomorrow, so this is a "look ahead" position as well. While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with the LAKERS. Good luck, NP |
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01-07-24 | Michigan State v. Northwestern UNDER 134.5 | Top | 74-88 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN TOY on the UNDER Michigan State/NW. These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a defensive affair for sure in my opinion. Michigan State is 9-5 and Northwestern is 10-3. The Spartans have won five straight SU/ATS, and they've seen the total go OVER in six straight. Despite their 92-61 home win over PSU (note that they're 0-1 SU in true road games this season), a contest that did go OVER the number, they've still seen the ttoal go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. Northwestern is off the 96-66 loss at Illinois as a 5.5-point underdog. It had seen the total go UNDER in three straight before that setback. Now back at home, I'm anticipating that the Wildcats will return to form defensively. Michigan State will double down defensively here after losing this game 70-63 as a six-point favorite last season. When you add up all of these factors, I say this O/U line is now much too high in this one. The play is indeed on the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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01-07-24 | Bucs v. Panthers +4.5 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC SOUTH GOM on the Panthers. With nearly 75% of the early public money on the Bucs, me and my clients are definitely going the other way here and looking for Carolina to pull off the epic spoiler on its home field here in Week 18. These Panthers' players and coaches are playing for their jobs next year. A big performance here will go a long way in helping that cause. Carolina plays with revenge here after falling 21-18 at Tampa Bay in early December, earning the cover with the 3.5-point spread. The Bucs are off a heart-breaking 23-13 loss to the Saints last week. Tampa is an unrealistic 7-1 ATS on the road this year, but note that the Bucs are just 2-3 ATS in their last five as favorites. Bryce Young was 19 of 32 in last week's 26-0 loss to Jacksonville. The Panthers will be risking life and limb here to try and pull off the outright upset and to rebound from last week's terrible effort. I just don't trust Baker Mayfield in this important position whatsoever. Look for Young to settle down and to match his counterpart and look for the home side to, at the very least, earn the comfortable cover once it's all said and done. Grab the points, the play is CAROLINA. Good luck, NP |
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01-06-24 | Cincinnati +9 v. BYU | Top | 71-60 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Cincinnati. While I'm not calling for the outright win, I definitely think this is too many points for the home side to be covering here. Cincinnati is 10-2 and BYU is 12-1. The Bearcats are off the 76-68 win over Evansville, but despite not covering the spread for a fourth straight time, note that the Bearcats are still 7-2 ATS in their last nine after three or more straight ATS losses in a row. BYU is 4-1 SU in its last five and 3-0 ATS in its last three, but that's also significant to note here as the Cougars are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten after three or more straight ATS victories in a row. These teams are more evenly matched than what this spread is suggesting. So grab the points, as the play is indeed on CINCINNATI. Good luck, NP |
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01-06-24 | Jazz v. 76ers OVER 237.5 | Top | 120-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Utah/Philadelphia. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but this one finally sets up to be more or a wide-open offensive affair in my opinion. Utah is off a 126-97 loss at Boston just last night. Look for another poor defensive performance here in Philadelphia as well (in their previous game they beat Detroit 154-148 and it was the first time in 15 games that they were held to less than 100 points.)Â Philadelphia is just 1-2 SU in its last three after last night's listless 128-92 loss here to the Knicks as 5.5-point favorites. The 76ers have seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that they've seen the total go OVER in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Philly has also seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite in which it was held to 95 or fewer points in. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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01-06-24 | Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 36.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 78 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOY on the UNDER Steelers/Ravens. I think this is a great situational play. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring affairs coming into this one, but just like their first contest of the year, a 17-10 Pittsburgh win at home, I'm anticipating another lower-scoring defensive battle. Situationally this one sets up to be a defensive battle. The Ravens have clinched the No. 1 seed and have nothing to play for here on paper, but they won't simply be rolling over. That said, there won't be any need to try and run up the score either. In fact, Baltimore's best strategy on offense will be to try and kill the clock as fast as possible to just end this game as fast as possible, so as to limit any potential costly injuries. Pittsburgh needs to win this game if it has any shot at a Wildcard. The Steelers have seen the total go OVER in four straight after last week's 30-23 victory, but despite that Pittsburgh has still seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. All signs point to the rematch in Baltimore also staying well UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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01-05-24 | Boise State v. San Jose State UNDER 141 | Top | 78-69 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* MW TOY on the UNDER Boise State/SJSU. Both teams have been involved in several highers-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a defensive battle here in what I believe to be a great situational play. Boise State is now 9-4 after its most recent 85-63 win over Utah Valley last time out. The Broncos have now seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last six. The total also went OVER the number in San Jose State's 74-68 OT win in this game last year. SJSU is just 7-7 after trading wins and losses over it last five games, most recently falling 75-73 at Wyoming as a 5.5-point dog. The Spartans have seen the total go OVER in five straight, but that's definitely significant to take note of us, as SJSU has in fact seen the total go UNDER in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. With each team doubling down defensively like I anticipate, all signs definitely point to a much lower-scoring battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe; this number is high, the play is the "under!"Â Good luck, NP |
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01-05-24 | Pistons v. Warriors UNDER 241 | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF TOY on the UNDER Pistons/Warriors. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to more of a defensive affair here in my opinion. Detroit has now seen the total go OVER the number in six straight after its most recent 154-148 OT loss at Utah. Despite that high-scoring setback though, note that the Pistons have still seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. Not surprisingly, the Pistons play with revenge here after a 120-109 loss at home to Golden State in early November. But that's important to note here though, as Detroit has in fact also seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. The Warriors have lost four of their last five and are off a 130-127 setback at home here to Denver just last night. Look for fatigue to be an issue for both teams and expect this total to stay well UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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01-04-24 | Minnesota v. Michigan UNDER 151.5 | Top | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN TOM on the UNDER Minnesota/Michigan. These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening in what sets up well from a situational stand point to be a very defensive affair between these conference opponents. Minnesota is 10-3 and Michigan is 6-7. The Wolverines have seen the total go OVER the number in six straight after their 87-76 loss to McNeese State. That's significant to note however for a couple of different reasons, as despite the total going OVER the number for a sixth straight time for Michigan in that one, the Wolverines have still seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of thier last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. Michigan has also seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four off an upset home loss as a favorite. The Gophers enter on a five-game win streak and they've now seen the total go OVER the number in three straight after their most recent 80-62 win over Maine. Note though that Minnesota has seen the total go UNDER in five of its last seven after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. I think Michigan doubles down defensively here as it looks to get back into the winner's circle. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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01-03-24 | Clippers v. Suns OVER 232.5 | Top | 131-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* PACIFIC DIV. TOW on the OVER Clippers/Suns. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring defensive battles of late, but all signs point to more of an offensive affair here finally for these team's first contest vs. each other this season. LA has won three straight and it's seen the total go UNDER in three straight as well, but that's signficant to note as the Clippers have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Phoenix has now won four in a row, which includes a 109-88 win here over Portland here on the 1st, but note that the Suns have seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five after a SU/ATS home win in which they held their opponent to 90 or fewer points in. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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01-03-24 | Thunder v. Hawks +2 | Top | 138-141 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Hawks. The Hawks do indeed play with revenge here after a SU/ATS loss in OKC back in October, and note that ATL is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Atlanta just broke a four-game slide with a win, but it's had a few nights off to rest. OKC is red hot, winner of five straight, but after an upset win over Boston at home just last night, and when taking into account the revenge factor, everything points to this being a trap/letdown for the visiting side. And while I clearly believe the outright win is a possibility, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with ATLANTA. Good luck, NP |
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01-03-24 | Rutgers +9 v. Ohio State | Top | 72-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN GOM on Rutgers. I'm not calling for an outright win. I'm not trying to pretend that Rutgers is a great team that's just had some bad breaks to open the year. Ohio State is the better team in this fight, but situationally this one sets up great for Rutgers to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample amount of points that they've been afforded in this one. The Scarlet Knights are 8-4 and the Buckeyes are 11-2. The Scarlet Knights are 1-1 on the road this year. The Buckeyes enter on a three-game win streak after beating WVU in OT in the Legends of Basketbal Showcase. Despite being 7-1 at home this year, I suspect a bit of a mental letdown here finally from Ohio State after that big victory. Rutgers may be 0-3 ATS in its last three, but it's a near-perfect 7-1 ATS in its last eight after three or more ATS losses in a row. This one sets up great from a situational stand point for the SCARLET KNIGHTS. Good luck, NP |
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01-02-24 | Magic v. Warriors -3 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOW on the Warriors. Typically I don't side with the public, but that's not always the case. I think the 15-16 Warriors (9-8 at home) are going to take advantage of this spot. The Magic are 19-13, but just 7-9 on the road. Orlando is going to get caught "looking ahead" here to its game at Sacramento tomorrow, followed by a contest at Denver. The Warriors come in desperate to snap a three game slide, but note that Golden State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more straight SU losses in a row. With the Nuggets coming to town next, this becomes a very important "must win" game for the home side. Lay the points, the play is GOLDEN STATE. Good luck, NP |
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01-02-24 | Flyers v. Oilers -163 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a BIG-CHALK SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Oilers. I really love the way this one sets up for the Oilers as I believe they're well worth the price of admission in this spot. The Flyers come to the end of a long and already successful road trip right over the Holidays. I say they get caught "looking ahead" to a long upcoming home stretch. The Oilers are now playing their best hockey of the season, as they've won five straight. Edmonton plays with revenge as well after a 4-1 loss at Philly earlier in the season, and note that the Oilers are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. All things considered, this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Lay the price, the play is EDMONTON. Good luck, NP |
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01-02-24 | Utah State v. Air Force UNDER 136.5 | Top | 88-60 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* MW TOM on the UNDER Utah State/Air Force. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but now that conference action is here, I'm expecting a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Utah State is 12-1 and fourth in the Mountain West. The Aggies have seen the total fly OVER the number in six of their last seven. Air Force won't be taking anything for granted here though. It's 7-5 and it's lost three straight. The Falcons have also seen the total go OVER the number in three straight. Both of these facts are important to take note of, as Air Force has in fact seen the total UNDER the number in three of its last four after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row and seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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01-01-24 | Texas -4 v. Washington | Top | 31-37 | Loss | -109 | 512 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL GOY on Texas. Texas is 12-1 and Washington is 13-0. The Longhorns have played the tougher competition though and I'm expecting them to pull away down the stretch of this one for the comfortable win and cover once it's all said and done. The Longhorns hammered Oklahoma State 49-21 in the Big 12 Championship Game. QB Quinn Ewers finished with 3,161 passing yards and a 21:6 TD:INT. Defensively Texas concedes just 17.5 PPG. Washington barely got by Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship game by a score of 34-31. QB Michael Penix Jr. finished with 4,218 passing yards and a 33:9 TD:INT. The Huskies have been vulnerable at times defensively, entering conceding 23.6 PPG. Look for Ewers to match Penix Jr and for the Longhorns superior defense to be the difference-maker. Look for TEXAS to get some revenge here from last season. Good luck, NP |
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01-01-24 | Golden Knights v. Seattle Kraken OVER 6 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* PACIFIC DIVISION TOY on the OVER Vegas/Seattle. This one definitely sets up well to be more of a high-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring defensive battle in my opinion. Las Vegas is just 9-7-2-1 on the road this year, while Seattle is 7-8-2-1. The Kraken play with revenge after a 4-1 loss to the Knights back in October, and note that Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a road loss vs an opponent. Seattle enters on fire, winner of four in a row, it's also seen the total go UNDER in four straight. Despite winning 2-1 in OT over Philadelphia two nights ago, note that the Kraken have still seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. When taking into account the faster pace we're expecting these teams to play at, all signs do indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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01-01-24 | Iowa v. Tennessee OVER 35.5 | Top | 0-35 | Loss | -110 | 504 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL TOY on the OVER Iowa/Tennessee. This is the Citrus Bowl and the second Bowl game of 2024, with Iowa and Tennessee squaring off this season. Iowa finished 10-3 and Tennessee was 8-4. The Hawkeyes stumbled in the Big Ten Championship game, falling 26-0 to Michigan. Note though that Iowa has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last ten off a SU/ATS conference loss in which it was shutout. After posting just 17 points in back-to-back losses, The Volunteers rebounded to win their finale 48-24 over Vanderbilt. Clearly, Tennessee's game-plan will be to keep the Hawkeyes on their heels and not allow them to dictate the tempo. Iowa saw the total go UNDER the number in eight straight to close the year, but look for the long lay-off between games to be detrimental to this Hawkeyes defensive unit. Tennessee averages 31.5 PPG and I predict Iowa having to play "catch up" from the very start. Look for this total to fly OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch. Good luck, NP |
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12-31-23 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 46 | Top | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 75 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC TOY on the UNDER Packers/Vikes. To say this is a "big" game for these 7-8 divisional foes would be a big understatement obviously. Minnesota beat the Packers 24-10 in Green Bay as a one-point dog back in October, and note that the the Pack have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home divisional home loss vs. an opponent. I'm expecting a similar final combined score here in the second game, as to what we saw in the first. The Packers snapped a two-game slide with a 33-30 win at Carolina and they've now seen the total go OVER the number in five straight. But that's also significant to note as Green Bay has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. The Vikes are looking to snap their string of poor play after losing four of their last five, most recently a 30-24 loss to Detroit. The loser of this game is done for the season, so expect a "play-off like atmosphere" in this one, but as they say, "defense wins championships," and in my opinion, all signs definitely point to a very defensive affair here. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-31-23 | Oakland +4 v. Youngstown State | Top | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* HORIZON LEAGUE GOM on Oakland. While I feel the outright win is possible, in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The Golden Grizzlies are 6-8 overall and 3-5 on the road, while the Youngstown State Penguins are 10-3 overall, including 7-0 at home. This is a classic over-reaction though by the general betting public, with the majority of the money on the home side here. Oakland has played some tough teams and while it's 0-3 SU/ATS in its last three, note that the Grizzlies have performend well in this spot for bettors by going 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. Look for the hungrier visiting side to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to cover with the points. Grab the points, the play is indeed on OAKLAND. Good luck, NP |
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12-31-23 | Falcons v. Bears OVER 37.5 | Top | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 68 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Falcons/Bears. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm now finally expecting those trends to end this weekend. Atlanta snapped a two-game slide in last week's 29-10 win over the Colts and I have no reason not to believe it can't carry over that offensive momentum here. The Bears are playing their best football of the season and won't be "rolling over" here after winning four of their last five, including a 27-16 victory here over Arizona last weekend. The bottom line here is that neither team has been mathematically eliminated yet, and I'm expecting this extreme sense of competition that they'll play with here will translate into a wide-open high-scoring shootout. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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12-30-23 | Raptors v. Pistons UNDER 230.5 | Top | 127-129 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Raptors/Pistons. These two teams are in dire need of a win. Toronto is 12-19 and the Pistons are just 2-29 (including 1-14 at home.) The Raptors have lost four of their last five, and the Pistons are on a historic losing streak at the moment. Clearly, both of these teams are equally "hungry" for a win here, but we can expect that sense of competition to translate into a really defensive affair in my opinion. It's a great situational play. Also note that Detroit has now seen the total go OVER in three straight after its most recent 128-122 OT loss to Boston, and that's important to take note of as the Pistons have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. With each team doubling-down on the defensive end like we expect, all signs point to this total staying well UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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12-30-23 | Blue Jackets v. Sabres -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUCKLINE DESTRUCTION on the Sabres. This is a great "situational" play. As primarily a situational handicapper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse. Both teams need victories, but after Columbus beat Toronto 6-5 in OT last night, all signs point to a predictable letdown here in my opinion. Buffalo can't afford to look past this opportunity after B2B losses and with a tough upcoming three-game road trip starting tomorrow in Canada's capital. Everything points to Buffalo not only winning this game, but doing so in blowout fashion. Lay the 1.5 goals, the play is the SABRES on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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12-30-23 | CS Sacramento +11.5 v. Eastern Washington | Top | 61-87 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG SKY GOM on Sacramento State. Sacramento State is 3-9, including 0-1 in Big Sky action, while Eastern Washington is 5-7, and 1-0 in league play. These teams are very even defensively, with Sacramento State conceding 72.7 PPG so far, and Eastern Washington allowing 72.9. The Eagles' stellar home numbers have the general betting public rushing to the window, but in my estimation this spread is now just a little TOO big for the home side to cover. So grab the points, the play is SACRAMENTO STATE. Good luck, NP |
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12-30-23 | Toledo +3 v. Wyoming | Top | 15-16 | Win | 100 | 458 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL GOM on Toledo. In this evenly matched contest, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. Toledo finished 11-1, while Wyoming was 8-4. Toldeo fell 23-14 to Miami Ohio in its final outing. DeQuan Finn was a standout though with 273 passing yards and a TD. Overall Toldeo averages 33.6 PPG, while allowing 20.6. Wyoming is off the 42-6 win over Nevada in its final outing, with Andrew Peasley finishing with 165 passing yards. Overall the Cowboys average 26.1 PPG, while allowing 22.9. Whoever gets the start here, we're expecting Toledo's superior defensive play to be the differnce here. Grab the points, the play is indeed on the ROCKETS. Good luck, NP |
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12-30-23 | Georgia v. Florida State OVER 44.5 | Top | 63-3 | Win | 100 | 458 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL TOM on the OVER Georgia/FSU. These two teams are feeling left out. Who will now be playing, and who will decide to sit out of the Capital One Orange Bowl for these two teams? Whoever does suit up, I feel that the overall situation points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Georgia finished 12-1, and FSU finished 13-0. The big reason that FSU was left out of the College Football Championship was the injury to starting QB Jordan Travis. Lawrence Toafili ran the ball ten times for 118 yards in the Seminoles 16-6 win over Louisville in the Conference Championship Game and QB Brock Glenn finished with 55 yards on and no INT's. FSU finished averaging 37 PPG and despite Travis injured, we think the Seminoles will be forced to keep pace here with Georgia. The Bulldogs averaged 38.4 PPG led by QB Carson Beck and I just see this SEC side pushing the pace from start to finish. This total is low in my opinion, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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12-29-23 | Grizzlies v. Clippers -7 | Top | 106-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Clippers. Normally I stay away from "public" plays, but despite the majority of the money on the Clippers tonight, I do really love the way this one sets up for the home side, so much so in fact that I've stamped this one with top-rated BOOKIEKILLER status. This is just a great situational play. LA does play with revenge here after a 105-101 loss here as an eight-point favorite in early November. Things have changed since then though. LA is 12-4 at home, while Memphis is just 8-9 on the road. Note as well the the Clippers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. LA broke a two-game slide with a win over Charlotte last time out, but it's lost three straight ATS, which is important to take note of as well as the Clippers are in fact 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more ATS losses in a row. Memphis comes in off a humbling 142-105 loss at Denver just last night, snapping a four-game win streak. With a couple nights off before a home date on New Year's Eve vs. the Kings, this definitely sets up as a "trap" for the visitors as well in my opinion. All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. The play is indeed on LA. Good luck, NP |
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12-29-23 | Rider v. Penn State UNDER 147.5 | 63-90 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOWOUT on the UNDER Rider/Penn State. This is a great "situational" play. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but now I believe they'll finally play to more of a defensive affair here in their final non-conference contest of the season. Rider is only 3-9, including just 1-6 on the road, while Penn State is 6-6, including 6-1 at home. Will the Nittany Lions get caught "looking past" their lowly opponent today to their game at Michigan State on January 4th?! I mean, the possibility is there for sure. I believe the Nittany Lions will take the foot off the gas in the second half. Previous to their 72-55 win over Le Moyne last time out, the Lions had seen the total go OVER in seven straight, so I'm expecting another great defensive performance here vs. this sub-par Broncs offense. Rider has played to back-to-back OT games and it's seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that the Broncs have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. I say the conditions are right for a lower-scoring UNDER here finally. Good luck, NP |
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12-29-23 | Clemson -4 v. Kentucky | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL WINNER on Clemson. Clemson will be missing five defensive starters, but the defense won't have to work too hard here facing Kentucky's offense that averages 28.6 PPG. The Tigers were still one of the stingiest defenses in allowing just 20.2 PPG. Clemson though will Cade Klubnik under center, and he had 2,580 passing yards and an 19:8 TD:INT and I think he'll get the better of his counterpart Devin Leary, who finished 2,440 yards and a 23:10 TD:INT. The weak point of the Wildcats was on the defensive side where they allowed 25.5 PPG. Clemson has something to prove here after a "down" year and I think Klubnik will deliver the goods. Lay the points, the play is indeed on the Tigers! Good luck, NP |
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12-28-23 | Flyers v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the UNDER Flyers/Canucks. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but, I'm anticipating more of a defensive battle here finally on Thursday night. Philly is 10-4-2-1 on the road and Vancouver is 13-3-1-0 at home. This will be a competitive battle, but a defensive one in my estimation. The Flyers double down defensively here after back-to-back high-scoring losses, including a 7-6 shootout setback in Detroit back on December 22nd. The Canucks have seen the total go OVER in four straight now after a 7-4 win over the Sharks on the 23rd. Look for the longer lay off to also help in contributing to a lower-scoring defensive battle between these two teams with "fresh legs."Â This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-28-23 | Long Beach State v. CS-Fullerton +2.5 | Top | 81-71 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG WEST GOM on Cal State Fullerton. While I clearly feel the outright win isn't out of the question, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Big West Conference action here and I just can't understate how important I feel that the home-court advantage really will prove to be for the Titans. Cal State Fullerton comes in playing its best basketball of the season in winning five of its last six. With a tough upcoming road trip at Hawaii and UC Irvine, this contest takes on added importance for the Titans. LBSU is off five straight SU wins and three straight ATS victories, but that's significant to note here as Long Beach State is in fact just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after three or more ATS victories in a row. Grab the points, the play is CAL STATE FULLERTON. Good luck, NP |
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12-28-23 | Jets +8 v. Browns | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* GOW on the Jets. Everyone and their dog is all over the Browns right now, except for me and my clients this week. New York is 6-9 and coming off a season-saving 30-28 win over Washington X-Mas Eve and I see no reason not to believe that the visiting side can't carry that momentum over here. The Browns are 7-1 SU/ATS at home this year. They're 10-5 overall and they've defied the odds with Joe Flacco under center. But after three straight SU/ATS victories in a row, I say for sure that it's now Cleveland that's VASTLY over-rated. The book is out on Flacco now for sure and I think New York's defense is going to throw a lot at Cleveland's aging pivot (also note that Cleveland is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last five after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row. Don't get me wrong, I like Flacco, and I like the Browns as a team this year. But I don't bet with my heart, I bet with my head and in my opinion, the overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends all point to a much tighter game than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe here on Thursday night. Grab the points, the play is NEW YORK Good luck, NP |
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12-28-23 | NC State +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on NC State. I've had a lot of success so far this Bowl season betting against teams with several key players that happen to be out for the conrtest for varying reasons, and that's the case here once again in going against K-State. The Wolfpack have a few starters missing as well, but they do have their starting QB Brennan Armstrong under center, while the Wildcats will be without their starting QB Will Howard and most of their starting recieving corps. K-State will also be without offensive coordinator Collin Klein, who took the same job at Texas A&M. NC STATE'S defense will be more than up for the task of slowing down this toothless Wildcats' offense and while clearly the outright win isn't out of the question, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. Good luck, NP |
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12-27-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Flames -137 | 2-1 | Loss | -137 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BEATDOWN on the Flames. I'm expecting the Flames to be fresh out of the break here and to use home ice to their advantage in this matchup. The Kraken won two straight on the road before the X-Mas Break, but I say that momentum is now gone. With a long home stretch upcoming starting with Philadelphia on Friday night, I say the visitors get caught "looking ahead." The Flames had their three-game win streak snapped in a 5-3 loss at LA in their last game, but with three whole nights off after this before a home game vs. Philly on New Year's Eve, the home side can put its full attention onto what it's doing this evening. And I say that'll be more than enough to get the better of the inconsistent Kraken. Lay the price, the play is CALGARY. Good luck, NP |
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12-27-23 | Suns v. Rockets OVER 225 | Top | 129-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Suns/Rockets. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair here finally on Wednesday. Phoenix has lost three straight SU and five straight ATS. That however is important to note as the Suns have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after three or more straight losses in a row and and in eight of their last 12 after five or more ATS losses in a row. Houston comes in fatigued here after last night's 123-117 loss to the Pacers and I believe that'll impact its defensive play. Note that the Rockets have seen the total go OVER the number in six of their last seven after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. This number is a little low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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12-27-23 | Virginia Tech -10 v. Tulane | Top | 41-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL WINNER on Virginia Tech. I've had a lot of success so far this Bowl Season playing against teams that have had a lot of transfers or missing players, and so I'm keeping true to that pattern here. With their head coach, starting quarterback, several offensive and defensive starters out for this game, I'm expecting the 11-2 Tulane Green Wave to get overwhelmed here. Virginia Tech is 6-6 and coach Brent Pry will be coaching his first for bowl game for this team. The Hokies won two of their final three games, beating Boston College 48-22 and Virginia 55-17, with a 35-28 competitive loss to NC State. QB Kyron Drones has nearly 2,000 yards passing and a great 15:3 TD:INT. The defense has been sharp as well in conceding only 24.3 PPG. I don't see Kai Horton, who was 31 of 62 for 485 yards, three TD's and two picks, doing much of anything against this well-prepared Hokies' defensive unit. Lay the points, the play is VIRGINIA TECH. Good luck, NP |
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12-26-23 | Pacers v. Rockets OVER 236.5 | Top | 123-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST on the OVER Pacers/Rockets. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring affairs of late, but I'm anticipating a less intense defensive affair here between these non-conference opponents on Tuesday night. Indiana is 14-15, while Houston is 15-12. The Pacers will be desperate to break out of their current slide after losing six of their last seven. The Rockets have won back-to-back games over the Mavericks and Pelicans. Each game went UNDER the number. But with Phoenix coming to town tomorrow, the home side will have to be cautious to get not get caught "looking ahead" here. Either way, the bottom line here is we're anticipating a very wide-open offensive affair, so the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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12-26-23 | Bowling Green +3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* ROUT on Bowling Green. I've had a lot of success so far in the Bowls this year playing against teams that have a lot of transfers or players out for whatever reason. And that's going to be the case here, as Minnesota finished the year 5-7 and is even lucky to be here in the first place, combined with the fact that it's starting QB Athan Kaliakmanis has transferred already, meaning that Cole Kramer, who has played six total snaps this year, will get the call. Bowling Green finished 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS. It's 12.3 yardds per point is ranked 13th in the nation. QB Connor Bazelak has thrown just one INT in his last five games. The Green Falcons only concede 330.3 YPG as well, which ranks 25th. While the outright win is possible, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with BOWLING GREEN. Good luck, NP |
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12-25-23 | Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 234.5 | Top | 126-115 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the UNDER Celtics/Lakers. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I believe that the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends all point to this one being a lot more of a defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Boston is 22-6, but a mediocre 8-6 on the road. It's coming off back-to-back road victories over the Kings (144-119) and the Clippers (145-108), but after posting 289 points combined over the last two games, I just think this nationally televised total is just a few points higher than it normally would/should be. The Lakers finally snapped a four-game slide with a 129-120 win at OKC the other night (I had LA in that one!) LA has now seen the total go OVER the number in three straight, but that's important for us to take note of as the Lakers have in fact seen the total UNDER the number in six of their last eight after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. A great situational play here on the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-25-23 | Giants v. Eagles OVER 43 | Top | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC EAST TOM on the OVER Giants/Eagles. This is a great situational play. Despite being eliminated from contention at 5-9, the Giants won't be rolling over here as they attempt to play spoiler vs. their division rival. New York had won three straight before last week's 24-6 loss at New Orleans. Note though that the Giants have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 off a SU/ATS conference road loss in which they were held to 9 or fewer points in. The Eagles will be beyond motivated here obviously after three straight SU/ATS losses (note though that Philly has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after three or more straight SU/ATS setbacks in a row.) I like betting on motivated teams when betting "overs" in the NFL and that's the case here for sure. All signs point to this one eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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12-25-23 | Raiders v. Chiefs -10 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC WEST GOY on the Chiefs. The Chiefs beat the Raiders 31-17 as 9.5-point favorites back in Week 12. They won and covered in that contest, but since then the Chiefs have gone 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS. That's significant for us to note here though as the Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more ATS losses in a row. The Raiders are holding on by a thread at 6-8. They snapped a three-game slide with a 63-21 win over the Chargers, but let's take that victory with a "Grain of Salt." I had a play on the Chargers on Saturday and they easily covered the spread and they had a huge rebound on the defensive end like I predicted as well. The moral of the story was to not "overreact" to the loss the week before. And that's the case for Las Vegas's victory as well. Let's not read anything into that, as I'm instead expecting a major letdown here in this difficult road venue. KC still has a chance to finish 12-5 this year with upcoming games vs. Bengals and Chargers. I say the CHIEFS lay the hammer down in this one from start to finish. No mercy on Christmas Day. Good luck, NP |
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12-24-23 | TCU v. Hawaii UNDER 148.5 | Top | 65-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* WALLET EXPANDER on the UNDER TCU/Hawaii. These teams have been involved in some higher-scoring games of late, but here on X-Mas Eve I'm expecting more of a defensive battle. TCU is 9-2 and Hawaii is 8-3. The Horned Frogs are 1-0 in true road games, and the Warriors are 6-2 at home. In what we anticipate to be a very competitive battle, we expect that to then translate into a very defensive battle. The Horned Frogs have seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five, but they're off the 88-75 loss to Nevada as three-point favorites, and that's important for us to take note of here as TCU has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Hawaii is in a similar spot. Its last game also went OVER the number in a 73-68 loss to Georgia Tech, but note that the Warriors have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite. The overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends point to this total staying well UNDER the number. Good luck, NP |
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12-24-23 | Jaguars +105 v. Bucs | Top | 12-30 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Jaguars. Jacksonville is 8-6 SU/ATS after three straight SU/ATS losses. The Jags are down, but they're not out though. Jacksonville is still in No. 1 in the division by owning the tiebreakers over Indianapolis and Houston, so this week's game essentially becomes the most important of the year. The swoon can no longer continue, but here's a favorable matchup to get untracked against. Tampa is 7-7 and 9-5 ATS. The Bucs can't afford to take the foot off the gas either, but I still like CJ Beathard and the visiting side here over Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. Tampa's defense ranks 25th in Opponent Yards (359.9) Beathard's obviously a downgrade from Trevor Lawrence, but I still think they'll find ways to move the ball today and at the very least, match whatever Mayfield can put together. The Jags are allowing 360.1 yards per game, so it's not only Beathard that will ahve to step up here. The Bucs have won three straight, but note that Tampa is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after three or more SU victories in a row. Tampa has New Orleans on deck, so there's no doubt that this also sets up as a classic "look ahead" spot for the home side, as that'll essentially be for the division championship. With games against Carolina and Tennesse upcoming, Jacksonville can still end the season on a big winning run. But one game at a time. The play is JACKSONVILLE. Good luck, NP |
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12-24-23 | Colts v. Falcons -2 | Top | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOW on the Falcons. It's a big game for both teams, but I'll argue a lot more so for the 6-8 Falcons than the 8-6 Colts. With nearly 75% of the public money on the visiting side, we're going full on contrarian here and going the other way. Off a 34-14 loss at Cincinnati, the Colts bounced back with an important victory at home over Pittsburgh last week. It's do or die essentially for the Falcons though after back-to-back divisional losses as a slight favorite. Of course, Atlanta benefits from being in a weak division, but it's "now or never" this weekend. ATL has in fact responded well in this spot for bettors though, going 8-4 ATS in its last 12 off a SU/ATS divisional loss. Look for the hungry home side to pull away down the stretch, the play is on ATLANTA. Good luck, NP |
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12-23-23 | Lakers +3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 129-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Lakers. The Lakers have sucked since winning the Play In Tournament, but after four straight losses, I think LA will, at the very least, keep this one close enough to cover with the spread. The Lakers play with the added incentive of "revenge" as well after a 133-110 loss to OKC on November 30th, and note that the Lakers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent. LA has a game vs. the Celtics on X-Mas Day, but it won't be looking past this bounce-back revenge opportunity. The Thunder have won and covered in three straight against the best teams in the West, but with three nights off after this before another home game, I say the home side gets caught "looking ahead" here. Grab the points, the play is LA. Good luck, NP |
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12-23-23 | Bills v. Chargers +13 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* PRIME-TIME ROUT on the Chargers. The Bills are 8-6 and seem to be back on track after destroying the Cowboys last weekend. With a home game vs. New England next week, followed by a season finale at the Dolphins, will the visitors get caught "looking ahead?!" I think this is a classic "trap" game. "Letdown" spot + "look-ahead" spot = "trap game!" The Chargers got destroyed 63-21 by Las Vegas last week, which prompted the firing of its headcoach immediately after. Backup QB Easton Stick was in fact decent, finishing 23 of 32 for 257 yards, three TD's and one INT. Giff Smith will be the interim head coach, and I think the defense will bounce back here and that the "new coach" factor is something that can't be overlooked for the home side here. Look for Buffalo to go up early, but to take the foot off the gas in the second half, allowing Stick to repeat his performance from last week in garbage time when he was so efficient. Grab the points, the play is SAN DIEGO. Good luck, NP |
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12-23-23 | Utah v. Northwestern +6 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Northwestern. So far I've had a lot of success playing against teams that have a lot of players out due to the transfer portal (or other reasons.) And that's going to be the main basis behind this particular pick as well, as 8-4 Utah will be missing several key players in this one, giving the Wildcats the distinct advantage in my opinion. Northwestern is led by senior QB Ben Bryant who finished with an 11:6 TD:INT. The offense averages 22.8 PPG, while the defense allows 24.2. Utes main QB Cam Rising tore his ACL and his back up Bryson Barnes will be in for this one. Barnes will enter the transfer portal after this contest. Utah finished averaging 24.5 PPG, while allowing 20.9. But as mentioned off the top, the Utes have plenty of other players opting out and leaving, including captain Cole Bishop (safety) and many other key players on both sides of the ball. Northwestern really came together over the final part of the season and averaged 30 or more points over its final three. While I do think the WILDCATS can win this one outright, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Good luck, NP |
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12-23-23 | Vanderbilt +16.5 v. Memphis | 75-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Vanderbilt. I'm not predicting an outright upset or anything, but I do think that the home side will take the No. 23 ranked home side will take the foot off the gas in the second half as it gets caught looking ahead to the X-Mas Break. Memphis has now won four straight. Vanderbilt on the other hand has dropped three straight, both SU and ATS. That however is significant for us to take note of as the Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. Vanderbilt won't be happy with its 63-62 loss to Western Carolina. The Tigers are clearly the better team here, but I say everything points to a second half "lapse."Â No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is VANDY. Good luck, NP |
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12-23-23 | Duke v. Troy -6.5 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL WINNER on Troy. Troy finished 11-2, while Duke was 7-5. This one sets up really well for the Trojans, who I expect will have "no mercy" on their undermanned opponent today. This play is based 100% entirely on the fact that Duke has seven starters out for this one, including QB Riley Leonard and its top two RB's in Jordan Waters and Jaquez Moore. They're also missing five defensive starters. This is essentially a "home game" for the Trojans as well, which clearly works in their favor as well. Troy has scored at least 30 points in four straight games and clearly have the superior QB under center in Gunnar Watson, who has a 27:5 TD:INT. The Blue Devils' weakness on defense is against the pass as well. I'm predicting a blowout. Lay the points, the play is TROY. Good luck, NP |
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12-23-23 | Burnley v. Fulham -140 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -140 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL GOW on Fulham. This is a big game for 11th place Fulham and I'm expecting it to make the most of this opportunity. The Cottagers earned a win over Everton in the EFL Cup in the last game and they have something to prove this weekend. Burnely is down and out in 19th and it's struggled with consistency all season long, most recently falling 2-0 to Everton last week. This line could/should in fact be much larger in my opinion. Lay the price with confidence, the play is FULHAM. Good luck, NP |
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12-22-23 | Suns +3.5 v. Kings | Top | 105-120 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Suns. Phoenix has struggled this year because of injury issues. It's main line-up has barely played together. I base my picks on many things, and this particular one is a great situational play that's backed by a strong ATS trend and that's the reason why I'm taking the points here. Phoenix 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent, and the Suns just fell 114-106to the Kings on December 8th. With the Wolves coming to town tomorrow, I say the home side gets caught "looking ahead" as well. Grab the points, the play is PHOENIX. Good luck, NP |
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12-22-23 | Marist v. Notre Dame OVER 125.5 | Top | 56-60 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the OVER Marist/Notre Dame. Both teams have been involved in some lower-scoring affairs of late, but I'm finally expecting some offensive fireworks. Marist is 7-2 and it's seen the total go UNDER in five straight (while also winning five straight), after its 76-52 victory over UMES. Note though that the Foxes have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.)Â Notre Dame is just 4-7. It'll be desperate here to snap a three-game slide, falling 65-45 to The Citadel as 8.5-point favs last time out, but note that the Irish have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. The overall situation combined with the numbers/trends all point to this one eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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12-22-23 | Central Florida v. Georgia Tech +5.5 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL PLAY on Georgia Tech. Both teams finished 6-6. Both teams finished strong down the stretch. Both teams have weak defenses, and strong offenses. The difference though is that Georgia Tech played some really stiff competition down the stretch, and UCF was barely holding on by a thread to several weaker teams. The Yellow Jackets are going to have success running the ball today as well. Finally, note that the Golden Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last five as a single-digit favorite and just 2-3 SU in those contest (and three of those five games finished within a FG.) In an evenly matched contest that I could see going either way, I'm grabbing the points. The play is GEORGIA TECH. Good luck, NP |
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12-21-23 | Kent State +7 v. Oregon | Top | 70-84 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER SHOCKER on Kent State. Both teams enter 7-3. One enters "under the radar" though, and it's not Oregon. The Golden Flashes average 84.3 PPG, while allowing 72.5. Oregon averages 78.5 PPG, while allowing 71. I just can't see Oregon pulling away in this one. I'll stop short in calling for the outright victory, but everything points to a much tighter contest than what this spread is suggesting in my opinion. So grab the points, the play is indeed on KENT STATE. Good luck, NP |
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12-21-23 | Saints v. Rams OVER 45.5 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 53 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* THURSDAY NIGHT TOY on the OVER Saints/Rams. It's a big game here on Thursday night and I'm expecting some offensive fireworks. Both teams are 7-7. The Saints are 3-4 on the road, while the Rams are 4-3 at home. After three straight losses, the Saints have now won back-to-back games, posting a combined 52 points in the process. The Rams have won four of their last five and combined to score 149 points over that span. With two road games at the Gians and the 49ers, it's sort of "now or never" for the Rams right now. These teams played in New Orleans last year and the Saints posted the 27-20 win. I'm expecting another competitive battle here in LA on Thursday night, but one that sees a few more points hit the board. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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12-21-23 | Syracuse v. South Florida +3 | Top | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 52 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL WINNER on USF. This is a great situational play. Both teams ended with 6-6 records, but since the regular season ended, the Orange have gone through some significant changes, while not much at all has changed for the Bulls. Because of this fact, I'm going to grab the points, but will obviously not be shocked by the outright upset. USF finished the regular season with a 48-14 win over Charlotte to punch eligibility. QB Byrum Brown finished with 3,078 passing yards and a 23:11 TD:INT. The USF defense catches a break here facing the Orange, who fired their former coach Dino Babers and replaced him with Nunzio Campanile, who will turn to Braden Davis at QB. Garrett Shrader underwent shoulder surgery after winning against Wake Forest. Davis attempted one pass and rushed the ball twice this season. Look for the Bulls' offense be just too much for this patchwork Orange offense to keep up to down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is USF! Good luck, NP |
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12-21-23 | Magic v. Bucks UNDER 236.5 | Top | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE NON-DIVISIONAL TOY on the UNDER Magic/Bucks. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting a much tighter and ultimatley lower-scoring defensive battle here finally on Thursday. Milwaukee has won five straight, which is important to note, as the Bucks have in fact seen the total go UNDER in three of their last four after five or more straight SU wins in a row. Milwaukee has now also played to five straight OVERS, which is also significant to take note of, as the Bucks have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. Orlando is off three straight SU/ATS losses in a row, and that's also something important to take note of, as the Magic have seen the total go UNDER in five of their last six after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. I base my picks on many different things. This particular one is situationally based and backed by several strong O/U trends. The play is indeed on the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-21-23 | Predators v. Flyers -112 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Flyers. Both teams have been great this year, but Philly plays with revenge after a 3-2 OT loss at Nashville two weeks ago, and note that the Flyers are 3-1 in their last four in trying to avenge a road loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. Since then the Flyers have won three straight. With a game at Detroit tomorrow, followed by road games after X-Mas at Vancouver and Seattle, tonight's contest takes on added importance for the home side as well. Nashville is off the 5-2 home loss to the Canucks, snapping a four-game win streak. With two upcoming home games over X-Mas vs. Dallas and Carolina, I say this sets up as a classic "look ahead" spot for the visitors as well. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." The play is indeed on PHILADELPHIA. Good luck, NP |
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12-20-23 | Alabama v. Arizona UNDER 174 | Top | 74-87 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Bama/Zona. Alabama is 6-4, while Arizona is 8-1. This is the Jerry Colangelo Hall of Fame Series at the Footprint Center. The Tide have lost three of their last four and the last thing they'll want to do is to turn this into a "track meet" with the Wildcats, whose only loss came against No. 1 ranked Purdue last Saturday. These teams are both averaging in the 90's, hence the really high total. But look for these teams to be a little less efficient here in this neutral site affair. In my opinion, this total is now just a bit TOO high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-20-23 | Hawks v. Rockets UNDER 234 | Top | 134-127 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Hawks/Rockets. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to more of a defensive affair here finally in this non-conference contest in my opinion. Both teams have played to B2B OVERS, but the Hawks get caught "looking ahead" to their game vs. conference rival Miami next, taking the foot off the gas in the second half. Houston lost 135-130 in OT at Cleveland last time out, so I'm expecting it to double down defensively here. Just a great overall situational play in my opinion. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-20-23 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Jets | 2-5 | Loss | -175 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG-CHALK PUCK-LINE BEATDOWN on the Wings. The Wings play with revenge here after a 4-1 loss at home to the Jets in October, and they're 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. They've lost three straight and will be desperate to break the slide here. The Jets are a great team, but with the Bruins coming to town before X-Mas, I say this sets up as a "trap" for the home side. In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. The play is DETROIT on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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12-19-23 | CS-Northridge v. UCLA -17 | Top | 76-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BEATDOWN on UCLA. Cal State Northridge is 7-3, while UCLA is 5-4. The Matadors are 3-2 on the road, while UCLA is 4-0 at home. CSUN held on for an 80-75 win over Utah Tech last time out, but I think it'll struggle to keep pace here with the home side. UCLA has had its up and downs to start the season, but the bottom line is that it's faced some really stiff competition, like Gonzaga, Villanova and Ohio State. With upcoming games vs. Maryland and then the conference schedule getting underway, this is a final "tune-up" for UCLA and I expect it to make the most of it. Lay the points with confidence, the play is indeed on UCLA. Good luck, NP |
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12-19-23 | UTSA -12 v. Marshall | Top | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE WINNER on UTSA. The starting QB for Marshall is out, so that means that Cole Pennington will be a "game manager" in this one for the Herd. They do have 1,000 yard rusher Rasheed Ali though. And the Herd features a strong group of WR, but UTSA is strong against the run, and I think Marshall will be just too one-dimensional and predictable on offense ultimately. UTSA Frank Harris will play the final game of his College career here and UTSA is seeking its first bowl win in its last five tries. Look for Harris to be a difference-maker in this one and lay the points with confidence. The play is UTSA. Good luck, NP |
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12-19-23 | Spurs v. Bucks UNDER 249.5 | Top | 119-132 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Spurs/Bucks. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. I'm expecting this non-conference contest to be less intense offensively. San Antonio is off the 146-110 home loss to New Orleans and it's seen the total go OVER in three straight now. That's significant to note though as the Spurs have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Milwaukee has won four straight. It's seen the total go OVER in five straight, which is also important for us to recognize, as the Bucks have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. With Orlando coming to town next, I think the home side gets caught looking ahead and takes the foot off the gas down the stretch. This nubmer is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-18-23 | Knicks v. Lakers UNDER 230 | Top | 114-109 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOW on the UNDER Knicks/Lakers. Both teams have been involved in several high-scoring games of late, but the numbers and the trends point to more of a defensive affair here finally. New York is now 14-11 after falling 144-122 here to the Clippers last time out. The Knicks have seen the total go OVER in eight straight, but that fact has only helped in driving today's total a few points higher than it normally would/should be in my opinion. The Lakers beat the Pacers in the tournament game, but have since dropped two of three, including a 129-115 loss at San Antonio last time out. LA has seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that the Lakers have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Expect these two hungry teams to double down defensively and then look for this total to stay UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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12-18-23 | Eagles v. Seahawks OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 148 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC NON-DIVISIONAL TOY on the OVER Eagles/Hawks. I live in the Pacific Northwest. At this time last year it was well below freezing with many feet of snow piled high on the side of the road. This year El Nino (or is it El Nina?!) has come around again and it's quite warm for this time of the season. Monday will be a calm night. No rain, no wind and decently warm. It's perfect football weather and I think that'll help these hungry teams in eclipsing this posted total sooner, rather than later. When I bet on "overs" in the NFL, I like betting on motivated teams. Teams that can't afford to sit back and wait for the other one to make the first mistake, but instead will have to attack from the get go and keep the foot on the gas until the final whistle. And that'll be the case here for these two teams in my estimation. Philadelphia is 10-3, but two of its three losses have come in the last two games. After falling 42-19 at home to the 49ers, last week the Eagles fell 33-13 at Dallas (note though Philly has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in three of its last four off a SU/ATS divisional road loss as an underdog.) The Seahawks are now just 6-7 after four straight losses. Seattle's great start is firmly in the rear-view mirror, but it's clearly "now or never" for the struggling Seahawks. As I said, I like betting on motivated teams when betting OVERS in the NFL and it goes without saying that each of these teams will be risking life and limb in trying to secure a victory here. But these defenses should be able to set up their offenses as well. While they've each played to some lower-scoring games of late, the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends, all point to this Monday Night game eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is indeed on the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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12-18-23 | Tenn-Martin +6.5 v. Evansville | Top | 91-98 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Tennessee Martin. This one sets up really well for the Skyhawks from a situational stand point and in a game that I see "coming down to the wire," I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. Tennessee Martin is 6-5 and comes in "under the radar" a bit here in my estimation facing the 8-2 Evansville Purple Aces. The Skyhawks are off a competitive 81-67 loss to NC State, easily covering the 19 points and I think they're not getting enough respect here either. Evansville has faced some stiff competition this year as well, but the Skyhawks balance on both ends of the court makes them a possibility for an outright upset here. In this evenly matched contest, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with TENNESSEE MARTIN. Good luck, NP |
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12-18-23 | Wild v. Penguins -115 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF GOW on the Penguins. Minnesota is just 5-8-0-2 on the road, while Pittsburgh is 6-6-0-1 at home. The Pens are looking to shake off a 7-0 loss at Toronto last time out, but note that Pittsburgh is 7-2 in its last nine off a shutout road loss. Minnesota enters off three straight victories, including two straight shootout wins at home, but with a game at Boston tomorrow night, I say this is a letdown/look-ahead spot for the visiting side. Look for the humbled, yet hungry PENGUINS to do more than enough to secure the victory here. Good luck, NP |
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12-18-23 | Western Kentucky +5 v. Old Dominion | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOWOUT on WKU. WKU finished 7-5 and ODU finished 6-6. WKU is led by Austin Reed who puts up 331.7 yards per game passing. Defensively they allow 338.3 YPG. ODU will be without All-American linebacker Jason Henderson and over their last three games the Monarchs have averaged just 313 total yards per game led by Grant Wilson. WKU comes in more balanced at the moment and while I do think an outright is possible, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with WESTERN KENTUCKY. Good luck, NP |
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12-17-23 | Commanders +7 v. Rams | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF YEAR on the Commanders. Outright victory?! While anything is possible, my official call here will be to grab as many points as you can. This is a great "situational" play. Washington is 4-9, including 3-4 on the road. It's 5-2 ATS away from friendly confines though. The Rams are 6-7 SU, 3-3 at home, and 3-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd as well. The Commanders have fallen apart, but haven't quite thrown in the white towel yet. Off four straight SU losses, and three straight ATS setbacks, note that Washington is in fact 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more straight ATS setbacks in a row. Grab the points, the play is WASHINGTON. Good luck, NP |
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12-17-23 | Jets v. Dolphins UNDER 37 | Top | 0-30 | Win | 100 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC EAST TOW on the UNDER Jets/Dolphins. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm finally expecting more of a defensive affair here on Sunday. New York is 5-8, including 2-3 on the road, while Miami is 9-4, inculding 5-1 at home. The Jets are off the 30-6 win over Houston, which snapped a four-game slide. They play with revenge here after the 34-13 loss at Miami earlier in the season and NY has in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. Miami is oft the listless 28-27 home loss to Tennessee as a 13.5-point favorite, and I'm expecting it to double-down defensively this week after that mental lapse. This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-17-23 | Bucs v. Packers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC TOTAL BEST OF BEST on the UNDER Bucs/Packers. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm predicting much more of a defensive affair here finally on Sunday afternoon. This is a huge game for both teams, and as such, I'm expecting a "war of attrition" in this one. Tampa Bay is 6-7, and so too is Green Bay. The Bucs have seen the total go OVER in three straight, but that's significant to take note of, as Tampa Bay has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. This one definitely has all the makings of a tight, lower-scoring defensive-battle, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-16-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 118-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Thunder. This one sets up really well for the Thunder in my opinion. OKC is 15-8, including 7-4 on the road. Its two game win streak came to an end last time out in Sacramento, falling 128-123. The Thunder play with revenge after a 128-95 loss at home to the Nuggets back in October, but that's significant to note here as OKC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. Denver is off three straight SU/ATS wins in a row, but I say it comes in a bit complacent here and gets caught looking ahead to the Mavericks coming to town next. Grab the points, the play is OKC. Good luck, NP |
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12-16-23 | New Mexico State v. Fresno State +3.5 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL WINNER on Fresno State. New Mexico State finished 10-4, while Fresno State finished 8-4. The Aggies played the Liberty Flames in their last game and their starting QB Diego Pavia went 11 of 16 for 188 yards and three TD's, while also leading the rushing attack with 45 yards and a TD. Pavia actually left that game early with injury and Blaze Berlowitz went for 134 yards a TD and an INT. The question mark surrounding Pavia though throws a monkey wrench into the Aggies bowl plans though ultimatley in my estimation. Whether he plays or not, he won't be at 100% health. Frenso State's Mikey Keene leads an offense that 29.9 PPG and I think he's the correct call here for sure. While the outright is possible, let's grab the points with FRESNO STATE. Good luck, NP |
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12-16-23 | North Carolina -1.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 83-87 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on UNC. This is a big game, but one that favors UNC in my opinion. Both teams are 7-2 as they enter this CBS Sports Classic contest. UNC's two losses have come against Villanova (83-81) and UConn (87-67.) In between those losses are three quality wins. One of the Wildcats' losses cam against lowly UNC Wilmington (80-73.) UNC has more talent on the floor here today though (Armando Bacot), and I believe it's already more "battle-tested." Lay the short points, the play is NORTH CAROLINA. Good luck, NP |
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12-16-23 | Vikings +3 v. Bengals | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF. GOW on the Vikings. Both teams are 7-6. The Vikes are 5-2 SU on the road and 5-0-2 ATS. Cincinnati 4-3 SU at home and 3-3-1 ATS. Nick Mullens replaced Josh Dobbs in the fourth quarter in last week's 3-0 win over the Raiders and he had 83 yards on 9 of 13 passing. I just think he's going to be able to match pace with Benagls' backup Jake Browning, wh granted has been great so far in place of Joe Burrow. But let's be really clear about this, Browning is no Burrow. And now with two games out on this guy to get some good footage on him, I expect this Minnesota defense, which concedes only 18.6 PPG (5th), to give Browning a hell of a time today. The bottom line is that this QB "mismatch" is in fact a lot more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. This is a great situational play and while I do think the outright win is a possibility, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with MINNESOTA. Good luck, NP |
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12-16-23 | Crystal Palace v. Manchester City -2 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -102 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL GOW on Manchester City on the spread option. This is a case of David vs. Goliath, but in this version I'm predicting that the Giant will stomp its overmatched opponent through the pitch. Manchester City returns to EPL action on top form after a Champions League victory in Belgrade and while it has some injury issues, so to does Crystal Palace. Manchester City has not been at its best in EPL play of late, as last week's 2-1 win over Luton snapped a three-game winless streak. But they're unbeaten their last 18 here at the Etihad. I expect a beatdown of lop-sided propotions. Lay the goals on MANCHESTER CITY on the SPREAD OPTION. Good luck, NP |
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12-15-23 | Sabres v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Sabres/Knights. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I believe those trends end this evening. Buffalo has played to two straight OVERs after a 5-1 setback at Colorado last time out, while Las Vegas has seen the total fly OVER in four straight. With a game tomorrow night in Arizona, Buffalo will have to reserve some "gas" for that game. I'm expecting a much "grindier" pace than what this O/U line is suggesting on Friday night. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-15-23 | Hawks v. Raptors UNDER 244.5 | Top | 125-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Hawks/Raptors. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, including in the Raptors 135-128 win over Atlanta here two nights ago. Note that the Hawks have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. While the last game flew well OVER the number, the rematch here on Friday finally points to more of a defensive affair in my opinion. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-14-23 | Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 231 | Top | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Wolves/Mavs. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Minnesota is 17-5, including 7-4 on the road, while Dallas is 15-8, including 7-4 at home. This is the first meeting of the year between the clubs. The Wolves had their five-game win streak ended last time out in a 121-107 setback at new Orleans. Four of their last five have gone OVER the number. Dallas has won four straight. It's seen the total go OVER in five straight, which is important for us to take note of as the Mavericks have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. I think these two teams are doing better right now than most thought they would be at this point of the season. Granted, we're still just getting going, but certainly the Wolves dominating like they are is a little unexpected. Either way, I'm anticipating a spirited battle here between these two Western Conference leaders, but more of a defensive one than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-13-23 | Knicks v. Jazz UNDER 227.5 | Top | 113-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Knicks/Jazz. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening. New York is 13-9 overall, including 6-6 on the road, while Utah is 7-16 overall, including 6-5 at home. New York snapped a two-game slide with a 136-130 win over Toronto at home last time out. The Knicks have now seen the total go OVER in five straight, which is important for us to take note of as the Knicks have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. With much tougher games at Phoenix, the Clippers, Lakers and Nets all upcoming here on the road, I think the visitors get caught looking ahead as well. Utah has lost three straight SU/ATS after a 134-120 setback at OKC last time out, but note that the Jazz have seen the total go UNDER the number in five of their last six after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. The overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends all point to the UNDER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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12-13-23 | Creighton v. UNLV +13.5 | Top | 64-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER SHOCKER on UNLV. As primarily a "situational" capper, these are the types of games I keep my eyes open for. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I do think that the stage is now set for a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting. This is part of the Jack Jones Classic. I think 8-1 Creighton takes the foot off the gas here and allows 3-4 UNLV to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Creighton is great on both sides of the ball, but everything points to a letdown in my opinion as it looks to close out non-conference play. The Rebels have fallen WAY short of expectations this year, as they already have three losses as favorites. Winning can lead to complacency and losing leads to desperation. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is indeed on UNLV. Good luck, NP |
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12-13-23 | Penguins v. Canadiens +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 6* DESTRUCTION on the Canadiens PUCKLINE. I'm going to lay the price here for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. I wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset or anything either though, as this is a great spot for the Habs. Pittsburgh is a public team by nature, but the Pens are off the 4-2 home win over the Coyotes just last night. Prevoius to that they lost three straight on the road. They also have a much more high-profile game at Toronto after this, setting this up as a "trap" for the visitors. Montreal has been trading/wins losses over its last five games and off a 3-1 loss here two nights ago to Nashville, this pattern may well continue here. Either way, in a game that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm laying the price for MONTREAL on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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12-12-23 | Nuggets v. Bulls UNDER 217.5 | Top | 114-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the UNDER Nuggets/Bulls. Both teams have been involved in a couple of higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting more of a defensive battle here on Tuesday finally. Chicago is just 9-15 this season, but 7-6 at home. After four straight wins, the Bulls fell 133-129 in OT at Milwaukee just last night and I definitely believe that fatigue will be a factor for the home side tonight. The Bulls play with revenge here as well after falling 123-101 at Denver in November, and note that Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. Denver is 15-9, but just 6-8 on the road. It snapped a three-game slide with a 129-122 victory at Atlanta last time out, but with what I expect to be a much slower overall pace here in Chicago, everything points to this total staying well UNDER the number once the final horn sounds. Good luck, NP |
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12-11-23 | Packers v. Giants +6 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Giants. Of course this one "means more" to Green Bay. It's 6-6 and it's won three straight, including a big 27-19 victory over KC last week as a six-point dog. The Packers though are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row. Now they're a big favorite on the road on Monday night facing a down and out 4-8 Giants team. But New York won't be rolling over here in my estimation. Quite the opposite in fact. The Giants have won two straight. Last week they beat New England 10-7. The Packers are now the "flavor of the week" it seems after their recent surge, but I'm going contrarian here and expecting the Giants to relish trying to play the role of spoiler here vs. their young counterpart in Jordan Love. In a contest that I see coming down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points. The play is NEW YORK. Good luck, NP |
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12-11-23 | Raptors v. Knicks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 130-136 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATLANTIC DIVISION TOY on the UNDER Raptors/Knicks. These divisional opponents have been involved in some higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening. Toronto is just 9-13, and its coming off three straight losses a s a favorite, including a 119-106 setback at home to these very Knicks on December 1st. And while that game in Toronto did go OVER the number, note that the Raptors have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last ten in trying to avenge a divisional home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. New York is off three straight losses of its own. This one has grind-it-out defensive-battle written all over it. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-11-23 | Delaware v. Robert Morris +5 | Top | 73-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG BOB on Robert Morris. As primarily a situational handicapper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse. The Blue Hens are 6-3 SU, including 3-1 on the road. They're 4-0 ATS. I say this string of ATS success away from friendly confines comes to an end here finally vs. 2-7 Robert Morris. I say Delaware is primed for a letdown here after its 87-80 upset win over Xavier. The Colonials are 4-4 ATS. They're competing hard despite their win/loss record, most recently falling 87-80 to Canisius. I think this is a good matchup for the home side. The Blue Hens are getting a little TOO much repsect here now after their most recent upset and while I do think the outright win is a possibility, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with ROBERT MORRIS. Good luck, NP |
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