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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-08-23 | Southern +18.5 v. UNLV | Top | 85-71 | Win | 100 | 32 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Southern. Southern travels to UNLV to take on the Rebels and in no way shape or form am I suggesting that the Jaguars will win this game straight-up, but I do think that the overall situation/conditions point to this one being a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Southern lost 108-75 at TCU as a 27.5-point underdog, unable to cover with the large spread. The Jaguars get another large spread here on Wednesday as well, but with that first game under their belt, I think we'll see another solid overall performance from the visiting side. Southern made this trip here last year and lost this game 66-56 as a 14-point dog and all signs point to a similar final discrepancy in the outcome of this one here on Wednesday as well. Grab the points, the play is indeed on SOUTHERN. Good luck, NP |
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11-08-23 | Pistons v. Bucks UNDER 229.5 | Top | 118-120 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Pistons/Bucks. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting more of a defensive affair here finally on Tuesday. Detroit is just 2-6 after a 120-109 loss at home to Golden State just last night. Fatigue will play a factor here for sure in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Milwaukee has seen the total fly OVER the number in three of its last four, including in last night's come-from-behidn 129-125 road win at Brooklyn. With each team coming in with "heavy legs," expect this total to stay well UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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11-08-23 | Eastern Michigan +19 v. Toledo | Top | 23-49 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC ATTACK on Eastern Michigan. I'm primarily a situational capper. This one sets up great situationally. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I do definitely think that the 8-1 Rockets will take the foot off the gas in the second half of this one. EMU is 4-5. It's also 0-4 SU away from friendly confines, but bettors take notice, as the Eagles are 3-1 ATS. Toledo is 5-0 SU at home, but it's already been overvalued this season, as it's just 2-3 ATS in front of the home town faithful. EMU needs to win two more games to become eligible and it has three games left in which to try and pull that off. The odds are against the visiting side today to try and pull off the outright upset, but it certainly won't be rolling over. As stated off the top, I think this is a great situational play. Grab the points, the play is EASTERN MICHIGAN. Good luck, NP |
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11-07-23 | Auburn +2 v. Baylor | Top | 82-88 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOW on Auburn. These teams haven't played since January 30th, 2021 and Baylor won 84-72. With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are evenly matched, as this game is in fact being played on a neutral court. Baylor averaged 77 PPG last year, while conceding 70.3. The Bears struggled on the glass, ranked 283rd in the country with 29.9 per game. Baylor was sharp from behind the line, 18th in the nation with 9.3 per game. But Auburn ranked 17th best in country in defending the three-ball, allowing just 5.6 per contest, and SIXTH-BEST in three-point percentage allowed at 28.8 percent. Overall the Tigers averaged 72.8 PPG, while conceding 67.7. I say defense wins the day in this early season tournament action. Grab the points, the play is AUBURN. Good luck, NP |
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11-07-23 | Ohio v. Buffalo +7 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH on Buffalo. Here's a great situational play. Ohio is 6-3 and has an opportunity to move up in the race for the conference standings, but Buffalo only has three more chances to become eligible. It's do or die from here on out. Will that necessarily translate into a straight up win here though? Difficult to say, but there's no question that the Bulls will be risking life and limb to try and pull off the upset. One week after becoming eligible, the Bobcats fell 30-16 at home to Miami Ohio. It's the Bulls though who have been the better bet for bettors this year, 5-4 ATS currently, compared to the Bobcats 4-5 ATS mark. While the majority of the public goes "one way" with this one, we're going to "go the other." The play is BUFFALO. Good luck, NP |
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11-06-23 | Oilers v. Canucks UNDER 7 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -123 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* PACIFIC DIVISION TOW on the UNDER Oilers/Nucks. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much tighter contest here. Edmonton is desperate here, it's off B2B losses and it plays with double revenge after dropping the first two games of the season vs. the Canucks in a home and home set. Note though that Edmonton has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Vancouver has won thre straight, most recently a 2-0 victory over Dallas here at home, and I'm expecting another similar low-scoring battle here as well between these Pacific Division opponents. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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11-06-23 | Sam Houston State v. Pacific | 64-57 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Sam Houston State. With over 75% of the early public money on Pacific, we're definitely going the other way on this one and taking Sam Houston State. (more analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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11-06-23 | Portland State +7 v. Air Force | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Portland State. With over 75% of the early public money on Air Force, we're definitely going the other way and taking Portland State. (more analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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11-06-23 | Abilene Christian +10.5 v. Oklahoma State | 64-59 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Albiene Christian. With nearly 80% of the early public money on Oklahoma State, we're going the other way here and taking Albiene Christian. (more analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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11-06-23 | Chargers v. Jets OVER 39.5 | Top | 27-6 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* MNF TOG on the OVER Chargers/Jets. These teams have struggled with offensive consistency all year, but I say this O/U line is just a bit TOO low here now. Clearly, scoring is DOWN big time around the NFL this year. That said, at some point these lop-sided discrepancies will start correcting themselves. Regardless, these are two highly-motivated clubs and I'm expecting "duel" here between these two improving pivots, in what I anticipate will be a "shootout" in the end. In fact, this total may eclipse the posted number by half time in my estimation. Either way, this number is indeed MUCH too low, as note that LA has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten (70% of the time), after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Everything points to this week's MNF total flying OVER the posted number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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11-06-23 | Spurs v. Pacers UNDER 239 | Top | 111-152 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOW on the UNDER Spurs/Pacers. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games, but I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair here finally on Monday. San Antonio has seen the total go OVER in three straight after a 123-116 OT loss to the Raptors at home, but note that the Spurs have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. The Pacers have also seen the total go OVER in three straight after a tough 125-124 loss to Charlotte last time out, but that's also significant to note as Indiana has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. Look for these young clubs to come in a bit flat-footed to open this contest and ultimately expect this total to stay UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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11-05-23 | Warriors v. Cavs -1.5 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Cavaliers. The Warriors stumbled out of the gate last season, but not this year, as they come to town at 5-1 and playing great overall. The Cavaliers have had to deal with some minor injury issues to start the year, and they enter at 2-4. Mission accomplished for the Warriors, but I say they finally get caught looking ahead here to their game at Detroit tomorrow night. That's followed by a game at Denver. Golden State is 2-0 SU in its last two, but 0-2 ATS. It's barely holding onto the edge that it had, and I think it finally collapses here vs. the hungry home side. Cleveland hits the road for four straight after this game, putting added importance onto this Sunday night contest. Lay the points, the play is the CAVALIERS. Good luck, NP |
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11-05-23 | Giants v. Raiders OVER 37.5 | Top | 6-30 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Giants/Raiders. The O/U lines keep dropping each week. This one I think is now a little TOO low. This non-conference game will be much more wide-open than what the oddsmakers are anticipating. Clearly, this is a big game for each struggling team. Another loss would be difficult to navigate past moving forward. New York has now seen the total go UNDER the number in six straight after its 13-10 OT loss to the Jets last week. It's now or never for Danny Dimes and company. The Raiders shook up their entire team this week and I think those changes will result in more offensive production on the field of play. Look for this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. (more analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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11-05-23 | Bucs v. Texans OVER 40 | Top | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 143 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOY on the OVER Bucs/Texans. Neither team has played to many high-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to finally end this weekend, as I expect this non-conference game to be less intense defensively, and much more wide-open offensively. It's a big game for each team and with a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are evenly matched. Or at least, they're trying to lead us to believe they're evenly matched. Whatever the case, each team comes in at 3-4 and hungry to snap losing slides. Tampa lost its third straight in last week's 24-18 setback at Buffalo, and note that the Bucs have seen the total go OVER the number in three of it slast four after three or more SU losses in a row. Houston has been more competitive than many predicted, but it's still coming off an inconsistent 15-13 setback to Carolina, which came into that game winless. The Texans have now seen the total go UNDER in four straight, but despite Houston going UNDER last time out, note that they've still seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. The overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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11-04-23 | Rangers v. Wild -109 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DESTROYER on the Wild. Here's a great situational play on Minnesota. New York is 8-2, including 6-1 on the road. It's been fantastic. But it has three whole days off after this, followed by three straight very winnable home games vs. Detroit, Minnesota and Columbus. Off the tight 2-1 home win over Carolina, can anyone finally say "letdown" spot for the Rangers?! And then also combine that with the "look-ahead" scenario as well, that equals "trap game!" Minnesota will be risking life and limb to snap the four-game slide. No looking past anyone here today. As stated off the top, this is a great "situational" play on MINNESOTA. Good luck, NP |
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11-04-23 | LSU v. Alabama UNDER 60.5 | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* SEC TOM on the UNDER LSU/Alabama. If you've followed me for any length of time, then you know that I'm a situational handicapper. I'm also contrarian. I base my picks on many different things. I don't find that I'm very good at individual player assessment, but rather I'm better at looking at a team as a "whole." If a player is absent, then that absence is reflected in the line. And so I love betting the regular season, and I love betting "situations." And I love betting against lop-sided trends and numbers, and to say that each of these teams to this point has played to a lot of high-scoring games this season would be an understatement of epic proportions. 6-2 LSU has so far seen the total go OVER the number in all eight games, while Alabama has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of eight games. The last time these teams met?! The total went OVER the number of course in LSU's 32-31 OT win at home last November as a 13.5-point underdog. Each side is already eligible, but there are big conference implications on the line here. Either way, the overall situation points to a much more defensive affair this time around in my opinion. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. (more analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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11-04-23 | Hawks +3 v. Pelicans | Top | 123-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Hawks. I think this is a great "situational" play. Atlanta is 3-2 and New Orleans is 4-1. Each team has been playing great of late, but note that the Pels hit the road after this for a three-game trip, starting at Denver. I say the home side finally gets caught "looking ahead" here, and I believe the visitors catch New Orleans at a great time. This is a "trap" for New Orleans, and ATL will be looking to get its trip started off with a slight upset. In a contest that I see coming "down to the wire," I'm grabbing the points. The play is ATLANTA. Good luck, NP |
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11-04-23 | Florida State v. Pittsburgh +21.5 | Top | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC GOM on Pittsburgh. I used Pittsburgh as my ACC GOY vs. Louisville last month and cashed and now I think Pitt offers great value in this spot here in November as well. Am I calling for the outright victory? Of course not. But at 8-0 and off a 41-16 win at Wake Forest, and with a home game vs. Miami up next, I definitely believe there's plenty of room for the visiting side to take the foot off the gas in the second half in this one, allowing the 2-6 home side more than enough room to comforably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. With four games remaining, the Panthers' odds of becoming "eligible" are virtually zero, but off the humbling 58-7 setback at Notre Dame last week, I expect a uch better effort here at home, where Pitt is 2-2 this season. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is PITTSBURGH. Good luck, NP |
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11-04-23 | Arsenal v. Newcastle United OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL TOW on the OVER Arsenal/Newcastle. In this evenly-matched affair, I expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Arsenal is 7-0 and off a 5-0 win over Sheffield United. There's no reason not to think it won't be able to keep that momentum rolling here. Newcastle United won't be rolling over at home though obviously. So far it's 5-3 after a 2-2 draw at Wolverhampton last time out (note, when Newcastle played at Sheffield at the end of September it won by a score of 8-0.) The Magpies also beat Manchester United 3-0 in the EFL Cup this week. In my opinion, everything points to this total eclipsing the posted number well before the end of regulation. The play is indeed on the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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11-03-23 | Grizzlies -145 v. Blazers | Top | 113-115 | Loss | -145 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Grizzlies moneyline. Two teams struggling, one more than the other. Memphis is looking to snap an ugly 0-5 start to the year, and back-to-back games in the Pacific Northwest against the 2-3 Blazers is just what the doctor ordered in my opinion. The Grizz are off a 133-109 loss at Utah last night, while the Blazers are off a second staright win, beating Detroit 110-101 on the road Wednesday. Now returning home, this is a classic "letdown/look-ahead" spot for Portland. And conversely, it's all hands on deck for the winless Grizz. Clearly without Ja Morant in the line-up, the Grizz are lost. But here's a game that they can come together and finally win. Both teams are dealing with plenty of injury issues as well right now, but situationally this one sets up really well for MEMPHIS in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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11-02-23 | Spurs v. Suns UNDER 227 | Top | 132-121 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION TOY on the UNDER Spurs/Suns. As I mentioned in the promo for this pick, we have now reached the point of the season where we can use past data to help us try and predict the future. As primarily a situational handicapper, this particular play falls right into my wheelhouse. These teams just played here on Halloween and the Spurs pulled off the outright 115-114 upset at 7-point dogs. The total went OVER the number of 226. Note though that Phoenix has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent as a favorite. The Spurs have seen the total go OVER in three of their four games, but with a few nights off before a game vs. Toronto on Friday, I say this young side comes out flat here off their big upset victory. When you add it all up, this O/U line is indeed a bit TOO high this time around. The play is indeed on the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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11-02-23 | Titans v. Steelers OVER 36.5 | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC NON-DIVISION TOY on the OVER Titans/Steelers/ What's up with these super low totals? Clearly, scoring is down around the NFL this year. These are very similar to preseason totals. Either way, I think this total is now just TOO low. This is a really big game for both teams. Tennessee is 3-4 and off a momentum-building 28-23 home win over Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog. Pittsburgh is 4-3 and ready to bounce back after last week's 20-10 home loss vs. Jacksonville. Despite the loss the Steelers have still won four of their last six and the short week here works in their favor by playing at home. Will Levis is in for Tennessee, and it's Mitch Trubisky for the Bears. These guys have nothing to lose and will be given the green light here. They'll both be susceptible to turnovers, but that will only set up the other team with great field position. I say this total is much too low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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11-02-23 | South Alabama +6.5 v. Troy | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUN-BELT GOM on South Alabama. Here's a great situational play on many levels for USA to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the healthy amount of points that it's been afforded. USA is 4-4, and Troy is now "eligible" at 6-2 after last week's 31-13 win at Texas State. Can anyone say "letdown" spot?! 4-4 South Alabama though is running out of chances, and this is a game that it has a legitimate shot at winning outright. It also plays with a small amount of "revenge here after falling 10-6 to the Trojans as a 3-point favorite last year. In what I anticipate will be a game decided in the final moments, I'm grabbing the points. The play is USA. Good luck, NP |
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11-01-23 | Clippers v. Lakers -5 | Top | 125-130 | Push | 0 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Lakers. The Clippers are 3-1 and the Lakers are 2-2. Will the addition of James Harden make the Clippers a better team? Of course, but it doesn't mean that there will be unbelievable chemistry right off the bat. Clearly, it may never work out either. Either way, I think this is a great spot for the Lakers to grab the first game of the year between the two clubs here in LA. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS so far, but I expect that streak to end. The Clippers are 3-1 ATS. But the Clippers are coming off a 118-102 win here over Orlando just last night, and fatigue will for sure be an issue here. Both clubs have a few nights off after this before Eastern road swings, but I say that the Clippers come in a bit fatigued, and I expect the Lakers to smell the blood in the water and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points, the play is the LAKERS. Good luck, NP |
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11-01-23 | Coyotes v. Ducks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the UNDER Yotes/Ducks. As primarily a situational handicapper, we've finally reached the point of the season where we can look back at the recent history of teams and find some patterns. These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games to open the season, but I think this one on Wednesday finally sets up to be a lower-scoring battle. Arizona is 4-4 and its off an 8-1 home win over Chicago. It's seen the total go OVER in three straight now, but note that the Coyotes have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. And with a game at home against Montreal the following night, the Coyotes also have something to LOOK AHEAD to and plan for as well that will distract them this evening. The Ducks are now 5-4 after winning four straight on the road. All were really big wins (3-2 overtime win in Columbus, 4-3 overtime win in Boston, 7-4 win at Philadelphia, and a 4-3 win at Pittsburgh), and they were huge underdogs in every single one of those games.. They saw the total go OVER the number in the final three games of that road trip, but note that Anaheim has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more traight OVERS in a row. After this the Ducks have four whole nights off before four more home games. I think there are enough external factors pointing to this one finally being more of a defensive affair. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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10-31-23 | Knicks v. Cavs +3 | Top | 109-91 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE GOM on the Cavaliers. Both teams come in at 1-2. The Cavaliers played without Donovan Mitchell in their most recent 125-113 setback here at home to the Pacers are 3.5-point dogs, but I believe they'll finally bounce back here, whether their super-start suits up or not. This is the opener of a home and home set, so that puts added importance onto this one for the Cavs. The Knicks looked terrible in their most recent 96-87 loss at New Orleans. New York so far is living and dying with the three-ball, but I believe the Cavs will bounce back defensively here at home after their abnormally bad performance last time out. With a game at home tomorrow vs. this very same team, I believe the visitors do indeed also get caught "looking ahead" here. Cleveland has big bodies that limit second chance points. Overall they're a great defensive team, especially on the perimeter. With New York having difficulties scoring down low early in the season, that leaves the door open for a possible outright win here. But I say whether Mitchell plays or not, this highly-motivated home side will, at the very least, keep this one tight enough to cover with the handful of points it's been afforded in this matchup. Grab the points, the play is indeed on the CAVALIERS. Good luck, NP |
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10-30-23 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOW on the UNDER Habs/Knights. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here in Las Vegas. Montreal is 5-2-0-1, while Las Vegas is 8-0-1-0. Montreal has seen the total go OVER the number in three straight after a 4-3 shootout win over Winnipeg last time out, after previously beating Columbus 4-3 in OT. Note though that the Habs have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Vegas has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five. It lost 4-3 in OT to Chicago, before then winning 4-3 in LA in a shootout most recently. Look for a much more defensive affair this time around. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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10-30-23 | Raiders +7.5 v. Lions | Top | 14-26 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* PRIME-TIME SIDE WIN on the Raiders. Las Vegas is 3-4 and Detroit is 5-2. The Raiders won two straight at home over Green Bay and New England, before then falling flat in last week's 30-12 loss at Chicago against a desperate Bears team. But now it's the Raiders turn to play with desperation against a Lions side that's coming off a 38-6 beatdown loss at Baltimore. Las Vegas returns home for two very winnable games after this, so the Raiders will be gunning for the outright upset here. The Ravens own the best defense in the league, and Las Vegas is no Baltimore, but that game definitely exposed a lot of weaknesses here for Detroit. I'm not calling for an outright upset here or anything, but note that the Raiders' pass defense is Top 5, allowing just 187.4 YPG. Grab the points, the play is LAS VEGAS. Good luck, NP |
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10-30-23 | Warriors v. Pelicans OVER 231 | Top | 130-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* WEST-CONF TOM on the OVER Warriors/Pelicans. Both teams have played to only UNDERS so far to open the season, but I'm finally anticipating more of a wide-open offensive affair here. Golden State is 2-1, and New Orleans is 2-0. The Warriors have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last six after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Look for defense to take a back seat as each team pushes the pace and this total flies OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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10-29-23 | Lakers v. Kings OVER 234 | Top | 127-132 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST on the OVER Lakers/Kings. Two teams that are familiar with each other play for the first time this season and I'm expecting some offensive fireworks. The Lakers are 1-1, and they've so far seen each of their first two games go UNDER the number. They're coming off the quality 100-95 victory over Phoenix, after falling 119-107 at Denver on Opening Night. The Kings are 1-1 after beating Utah 130-114, and then falling flat in a 122-114 revenge scenario at home vs. Golden State last time out. So far the early numbers would point more to a lower-scoring game, but why then the higher total here set by the oddsmakers?! Clearly, let's not read too much into any early results. Look for this higher-paced affair to eclipse the posted numbers sooner, rather than later. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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10-29-23 | Eagles v. Commanders OVER 43.5 | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC EAST TOY on the OVER Eagles/Commanders. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end on Sunday afternoon. How will Philadelphia respond after a poor performance? That was the big question last weekend for the Eagles after they inexplicably fell 20-14 at the Jets. But Philly erased all bad thoughts with a resounding 31-17 home win over the Dolphins and I expect the Eagles to keep that momentum rolling here in this important divisional matchup. They say divisional matchups are always the most important and they almost always mean the most to the home side. Washington pushed the Eagles to the limit back in Week 4, eventually falling 34-31 in OT in Philadelphia and while this contest may not reach that total, I still expect these teams to easily blast past this lower number once again. Washington is off the 14-7 loss at the Giants, but note that the Commanders have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 off a SU/ATS road loss in which it was a favorite and held to 9 or less points in. Expect another hard-fought battle between these teams, this time in the Nation's capital, with a total that flies OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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10-29-23 | Vikings v. Packers +1.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC NORTH GOY on the Packers. The Vikes are on a two-game win streak after holding on for a 22-17 victory at home as an underdog vs. San Francisco last weekend. QB Kirk Cousins rewound the clock and went for 378 passing yards, two TD's and an INT. The Packers enter desperate now to snap a three-game SU/ATS slide, but note that Green Bay is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. First Green Bay stumbled at home to a then red-hot Lions team 34-20, and then the Packers lost their next two on the road at Las Vegas and Denver. Now back at home and in a crucial divisional contest here, I think Jordan Love will bounce back in friendly confines. Minnesota's defense is nothing to write home about, especially on the road. The Vikes did look decent last week, but I'm not ready to trust them at all at this point, and in my opinion, everything points to a letdown here on the road vs. their hungry division rival. Grab the points, the play is GREEN BAY. Good luck, NP |
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10-29-23 | Texans v. Panthers +3.5 | Top | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* UPSET BLOWOUT on the Panthers. I like the 0-6 Panthers to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire, meaning that "the points" are the correct call in this matchup. The outright is possible, but let's grab the field goal and the hook on this hungry home side. Houston is 3-3 overall, but just 1-2 on the road. Off a 20-13 win over New Orleans two weeks ago, will "rest" lead to "rust" for Houston's chemistry here this weekend?! The possibility definitely exists for sure! Carolina is coming out of its bye as well, but I'd say it could not have come at a better time. Do I think that the Panthers will now run the board and miraculously make the Playoffs? Of course not. But while I think the bye came at a bad time for the Texans, it could not have come at a better time for the reeling Panthers, who will be risking life and limb here to try and pull off this outright upset. CJ Stroud and Bryce Young are set for an epic "duel" in my opinion. Grab the points, the play is CAROLINA. Good luck, NP |
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10-29-23 | Jets v. Giants OVER 35 | 13-10 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Jets/Giants. Neither team has played to many high-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here finally in the Big Apple as the AFC and the NFC collide to see who will rule the City so nice, they named it twice! The Jets are 3-3 and the Giants are 2-5. It's a big game for each side, as a victory will keep the winner relevant in the divisional race. Another loss though and these teams are in trouble. From a situational stand-point it sets up great to be a more of a wide-open "shootout," rather than a defensive affair. If this was a divisional contest, or even a conference contest, I'd likely be looking at this being more of a defensive battle, but I expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later once it's all said and done. (More analysis available) Good luck, NP |
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10-28-23 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* BEST OF BEST on the UNDER Knights/Kings. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games to open the season, but I'm finally anticipating much more of a goaltenders battle here between these Western Conference opponents on Saturday night. Las Vegas is 7-0-1, including 3-0 on the road. It comes in off a 4-3 OT home loss to Chicago, its first "loss" of the year. Note though that the Knights have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after a home loss in which they were a favorite of -225 or greater. LA has won four of its last five and it's seen the total go OVER in four straight. Despite that though, note that the Kings have seen the total go UNDER the number in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. These teams have been explosive offensively so far to open the year, but each is also among the best defensively. Look for the defenses to shine tonight in this one. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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10-28-23 | North Carolina v. Georgia Tech +12.5 | Top | 42-46 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG GOY on Georgia Tech. North Carolina is 6-1, but last week it fell 31-27 at home to UVA as a 24-point favorite. It was a major letdown for the Tar Heels immediatley after becoming bowl eligible and starting the season 6-0. And now I think that UNC is primed for another letdown here vs. Georgia Tech, as I believe it'll be caught looking ahead to its game vs. Duke up next. Te Yellow Jackets are 3-4 and will be looking to pull off the outright upset just like they did in last year's outright 21-17 victory over the Tar Heels as 22-point underdogs. GT doesn't have too many winnable games left on the schedule. Not that the oddsmakers are giving it much of a chance like this. As primarily a situational handicapper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but everything points to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in my opinion. Grab the points, the play is GEORGIA TECH. Good luck, NP |
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10-28-23 | Bulls v. Pistons OVER 218 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Bulls/Pistons. Both teams have been involved in lower-scoring games to open the season, but I'm anticipating not much defense played here, and a much more wide-open pace overall than what this O/U line is suggesting. Chicago fell in its opener by a score of 124-104 at home to OKC, then held a players only meeting the next day. The Bulls won in OT against the Raptors last night by a score of 104-103. The total amazingly failed to sail OVER the posted number despite playing the extra frame. Now on the road for the first time this year, I think Chicago's defense takes a hit here on the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Detroit is 1-1 as well after a 111-99 win at Charlotte last night. The Pistons finally return home to play and while their first two games went UNDER the number, I think playing in front of the home town crowd will have the opposite effect as far as the total is concerned here on Saturday. Note that the Pistons have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 off a SU/ATS road win as a dog in which they held their opponent to 99 or fewer points in. With each team pushing the pace like I anticipate, all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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10-28-23 | Troy v. Texas State +7 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUNBELT GOW on Texas State. This is a great "situational" play. Both teams enter at 5-2, making this a very important game, as the victor will then become bowl eligible with the win. Troy is 2-1 on the road, most recently coming off a 19-0 win at Army two weeks ago, while Texas State also played two weeks ago in a 21-20 win over Louisiana Monroe. Texas State lost this game 17-14 last year, but easily covered the spread with the 16.5-points it was afforded in that one. I'm absolutely expecting a similar hard-fought game here as well. Troy QB Gunnar Watson struggled in his team's last win, going 10 of 21 for 227 yards and a TD. Bobcats' QB TJ Finley was 24 of 46 for 222 yards and two TD's in his team's latest victory. I think Troy's defensive numbers are skewed and the Trojans' defense is poised to finally be tested here. While I feel the outright is possible, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with TEXAS STATE. Good luck, NP |
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10-28-23 | Maryland v. Northwestern OVER 48 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN TOW on the OVER Maryland/NW. Maryland is 5-2. It failed to punch its sixth win of the year in last week's 27-24 loss to Illinois as a 13-point favorite, buit note that the Terps have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five after a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite in their previous outing. Northwestern has been trading good games with bad. Last week's 17-9 loss at Nebraska, despite being a ten-point dog, was pretty terrible. The Terps though come in fresh out of their bye and I'm fully expecting them to push the pace of this one from the outset as they look to now finally become "eligible." The last time these teams played against each other Maryland managed the 31-24 victory, and all signs point to a similar final combined score here as well. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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10-27-23 | Blues +1.5 v. Canucks | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -150 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* EXPRESS on the Blues on the PUCKLINE. Vancouver is 4-2, but after a successful 3-2 road trip, including back-to-back victories as an underdog, I'm finally expecting Vancouver to have a bit of a letdown here. St. Louis is undervalued here for sure. It's off the 3-0 win at Calgary and has the potential to do the same here as well. The Canucks also welcome the Rangers to town tomorrow, making this a "look ahead" spot. At this price, I think we're getting awesome value on ST. LOUIS on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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10-27-23 | Raptors v. Bulls -130 | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* MONEYLINE BOOKIEKILLER on the Bulls. The Raptors barely got past the Wolves in their 97-94 home win to open the season. Dennis Schroder actually led the team with 22 points. But overall Toronto shot just 40 percent from both the floor and from range. That won't get it done here vs. this motivated Chicago side which fell flat in a 124-104 blowout home loss to Oklahoma City. Immediately after the Bulls had a players only meeting. Chicago has its full line-up healthy and ready to go, and I'm expecting a completely different vibe from the "get go" here for the Bulls. This is Toronto's first game on the road, and it looked pretty shaky in Game 1. The Raptors then return home to face their heated rival, the 76ers tomorrow night, so it's also a "look ahead" spot. Either way you cut it, look for CHICAGO to figure out a way to win this game STRAIGHT UP. Good luck, NP |
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10-27-23 | Tottenham Hotspur v. Crystal Palace OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL TOW on the OVER Tottenham/CP. Tottenham is in impressive form right now and should be able to come out on top here quite easily. That said, Crystal Palace won't be rolling over and will be feeling the pressure after a poor 4-0 loss to Newcastle Uited last time out. Tottenham is off a 2-0 win over Fulham, but I think the visitors will have their hands full today with the motivated home side. CP doesn't have a good history against Tottenham though, having won only one of the last 16 matches in EPL action. Tottenham though is "firing on all cylinders" right now, with Son Heung-Min and James Maddison on top form. CP has yet to hit its stride, but here at home I'm expecting it to find the back of the net at least once. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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10-26-23 | Bucs v. Bills OVER 42.5 | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* PRIME-TIME TOTAL on the OVER Bucs/Bills. The Bucs are 3-3, and they've seen the total go 1-5 to the UNDER. The Bills are 4-3 and they've seen the total go 3-4 to the UNDER. Tampa is most recently off the 16-13 loss to Atlanta. Baker Mayfield has been decent though this year with 1,363 passing yards and an 8:4 TD:INT. So far the Bucs defense has been up to the task most weekend, so far allowing just 17.3 PPG, but I'm expecting that unit to stumble here on the road in this difficult venue and at this time of year. The Bills fell 29-25 at division rival New England last week as an 8.5-point favorite, and they've seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite in their previous outing. I say these two competent QB's battle it out and I look for this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is on the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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10-26-23 | Syracuse +3 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC GOW on Syracuse. Outright win? Very possible! Is this a contrarian play?! It sure is! But I love the way this one sets up for the Orange on Thursday and while the upset victory isn't out of the question, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Syracuse is 4-3, but it's now lost three straight SU/ATS in a row after a 41-3 loss at FSU as a 19-point dog last time out. Note though that the Orange are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. The Orange won this game 41-36 as 3.5-point dogs back in 2021. Virginia tech is 3-4. It's coming off a 30-13 win at home over Wake Forest. Both teams come out of their bye weeks. Despite the lop-sided loss last time out, the Orange still only allow 22.1 PPG. The Hokies are conceding 24.7. Kyron Drones is a true dual-threat QB for Virginia Tech, but now he faces one of the better defenses in the conference. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is SYRACUSE. Good luck, NP |
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10-26-23 | 76ers v. Bucks UNDER 225 | Top | 117-118 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF MONTH on the UNDER 76ers/Bucks. This is the first game of a NBA on TNT Double-Header and I'm expecting a bit of awkward offensive play, combined with above average defensive play will ultimately result in a lower-scoring affair. Philadelphia has reached the second round of the playoffs in five of the last six seasons, while the Bucks landed guard Damian Lillard. I just see chemistry being an issue for each offense with new faces in starters roles. A great situational play on the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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10-26-23 | Ducks v. Bruins OVER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the OVER Ducks/Bruins. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of an explosive offensive affair, rather than a tight defensive battle in this non-conference contest from Boston on Thursday night. Anaheim is 2-4, while Boston is 6-0. The Ducks have seen the total go UNDER in five of their six games. They're off a big 3-2 OT win at Columbus and I expect Anaheim to carry that momentum over here. The Bruins have also seen the total go UNDER in five of six, including in their 3-0 win at Chicago last time out. Note though that Boston has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 off a shutout road victory. And finally note, these teams played earlier in the week in Anaheim and the Bruins won by a score of 3-1, and note that the Ducks have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four in trying to avenge a home loss vs. an opponent. The situation here finally points to some explosive offensive fireworks. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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10-25-23 | Jacksonville State v. Florida International +8 | 41-16 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER BLOWOUT on FIU. While I'm not calling for the outright victory, I do think we're going to see a highly-competitive affair here and because of that, I'll be recommending to grab as many points as you can in this one. If you've followed me for any length of time, then you know that I'm a "situational" handicapper at heart, and this one sets up well for the 4-4 Florida International Panthers in my opinion. Jacksonville State just became bowl eligible last time out vs. WKU in a 20-17 outright win as a 7.5-point dog, and I'm predicting a now predictable mental letdown here. FIU is off a hard-fought 33-27 OT win at Sam Houston State as a 5-point dog and has a ton of momentum and confidence here. These teams haven't played since 2020, but Jacksonville State pulled off the upset as a ten-point dog. That was a long time ago, but I think that FIU now has a legitimtate chance at doing the same here to the visiting side. That said, in the end my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The play is FIU. Good luck, NP |
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10-24-23 | Lakers +5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-119 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Lakers. The Lakers made it to the Western Conference Final last year, as they really "came together" over the second half. They then lost to the Nuggets, who would go on to win their first ever NBA Championship in franchise history. The Nuggets are expected to be without forward Michael Porter Jr. in this one, as he also sat out the entire pre-season. Denver is going to be distracted here raising the banner, and I think the Lakers have revenge on their minds here right out of the gate and will be bring their "A" game on Opening Night. While I do think the outright win is a possibility, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with LA. Good luck, NP |
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10-24-23 | Devils v. Canadiens +1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOWOUT on the Canadiens on the PUCKLINE. I really just think that the oddsmakers are overlooking how improved Montreal is to start the season here, and while I do totally respect the Devils and what they did last season, I do also definitely feel that they're getting way too much respect in this one. Either way, the puckline option on this hungry and hot home side at this price is simply too good to turn down. New Jersey is 0-4 on the PL, while Montreal is 3-2. The Devils host Washington tomorrow night, so it sets up as a look-ahead spot as well for the visiting side. You may also want to "sprinkle" a little on the ML, but the official call is to grab the puck-and-a-half with MONTREAL on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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10-24-23 | New Mexico State v. Louisiana Tech -1.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* CONFERENCE-USA GOW on Louisana Tech. New Mexico State 5-3 overall, but just 2-2 on the road. Louisiana Tech is 3-5, and just 2-2 at home. With four games remaining, time is running out for the Bulldogs to become "bowl eligible" this season, and here's a home game that they're actually favored to win. This has become the most important game of the season for Louisiana Tech, in fact I'd argue it's "do or die." Conversely, after three straight SU/ATS victories in a row, the Aggies are now primed for a letdown here finally in my estimation (and note that New Mexico State is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row.)Â With four games remaining, the Aggies are going to get caught looking ahead here and a tiny bit complacent, and like I just outlined, the Bulldogs will be risking life and limb here to ensure a victory. I say the more motivated home side pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover. Lay the points, the play is LOUISIANA TECH. Good luck, NP |
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10-23-23 | 49ers v. Vikings OVER 44 | 17-22 | Loss | -108 | 78 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PRIME-TIME TOTAL on the OVER 49ers/Vikes. Here's a great situational play. As primarily a "situational" handicapper, this one definitely falls right into my "wheel house."Â San Francisco had seen the total go OVER in two straight before its 19-17 loss at Cleveland last week as an 8.5-point favorite. Note that the 49ers have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten off a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite. Minnesota is off a KEY 19-13 win at Chicago last week and it's seen the total go UNDER in four straight. The Vikes are 2-4 and still have hope in the division at this point once again. I just see the 49er keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish here, and with the home side needing to keep pace, all signs point to this one flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER. (more analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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10-22-23 | Bruins v. Ducks OVER 6 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Bruins/Ducks. Here's a great situational play, as I expect more of a faster-paced affair here, rather than an intense defensive one. Anaheim is 1-3 and it's seen the total go UNDER in three of four this year, including in its 2-1 loss at Arizona last time out. Boston is 4-0, and it just saw its first total of the year go OVER the number in its 4-2 win at LA. I'm expecting even more offense in this one, but a similar wide-open pace. The Bruins averaged 3.7 GPG last year and I expect them to score in bunches here against this weak Anaheim defense. That said, the Ducks did explode for six goals vs. the Hurricanes at the Honda Center earlier this week as well. Whatever way you look at it, all signs point to this one eclipsing the posted total sooner, rather than later in my opinion. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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10-22-23 | Bills v. Patriots OVER 40 | Top | 25-29 | Win | 100 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC EAST TOM on the OVER Bills/Pats. These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this afternoon. Buffalo is 4-2 after a 14-9 win over the Giants last week. The Bills have now seen the total go UNDER in two straight. New England is 1-5 after its 21-17 loss at the Raiders. The week before that it lost 34-0 at home to the Saints, and the week before that it fell 38-3 at Dallas. The Patriots have now seen the total go UNDER in five straight games, which is significant to note here as New England has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. The Pats are giving up 25 PPG, and I don't see the Bills taking it easy on them. At the same time, clearly Belichick has to open up the playbook here on offense moving forward for NE. I say that the overall situation that each club finds itself in, combined with the above strong O/U stat, and the fact that this total is low due to the fact that these teams have played to so many UNDERS of late, has finally driven this total a few points lower than it normally would/should be. This total is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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10-22-23 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 37 | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC SOUTH TOW on the OVER Falcons/Bucs. Neither team has been involved in many high-scoring affairs this season, but I say those trends end on Sunday afternoon on what I anticipate will be a much more wide-open contest than what this O/U line is suggesting. Tampa Bay has now seen the total go UNDER in three straight after its 20-6 loss to the Lions last time out. Note though that Detroit has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last eight after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. ATL has seen the total go UNDER in four straight now after its 24-16 home loss to Washington as a 1-point favorite. That's plenty of UNDERS from both sides as I mentioned off the top, but that fact has for sure only helped in driving this particular total this Sunday afternoon, a few points lower than it normally would/should be. All the offensive and defensive numbers to this point from each team would indicate a lower-scoring game, but the overall situation, combined with the above listed ATS O/U trends do indeed make the OVER the correct call in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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10-22-23 | Lions v. Ravens -160 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* MONEY-LINE PLAY on the Ravens. I think the Lions will stumble on the road here vs. this tough Baltimore defense. These teams are in fact very similar in many respects, and honestly it would not be too difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these sides to come out on top. The Ravens are No. 1 in the league vs. the pass, and that makes Detroit extremely one-dimensional. Look for the Ravens to dig deep here and gut out a strong straight up win at home here on Sunday afternoon. The play is indeed on BALTIMORE. Good luck, NP |
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10-22-23 | West Ham United v. Aston Villa -111 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* EPL BLOWOUT on Aston Villa. Aston Villa is 5-2 and sixth in the table after drawing with Wolverhampton 1-1 before the international break. Westham United is 4-2 and ninth in the table and drew 2-2 with Newcastle before the break. Only four points seperates Villa from leader Tottenham and note that Aston Villa does come in on top form, looking to extend its game scoring streak to eight straight games here across all competitions. Also note that the hosts are on a ten game EPL win streak at home. The fact that West Ham got two goals in its final game before the break is great for Hammers fans, but the fact that it allowed two goals to Newcastle is what is of concern here. West Ham has enjoyed remarkable success here in the past and in this matchup, but that run is about to come to an end here finally against the better team at home in my opinion. All things considered, a really great price as I expect ASTON VILLA to capture all three points this afternoon! Good luck, NP |
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10-21-23 | Golden Knights v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL TOTAL on the OVER Knights/Hawks. This package is called a "situational" total for a reason. Chicago is 2-3, but so far all five games it's played in so far have gone UNDER the number. That includes in their 4-0 loss at Colorado last time out. Note that Chicago has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row, and in three of its last four after a shutout road loss in its previous outing. Las Vegas is 5-0 and it had seen the tottal go UNDER in four straight before a 5-3 win at Winnipeg last time out. I'm anticipating a similar faster-paced affair here in Chicago as well. The numbers/trends combine with the overall situation and make the OVER the correct call in this one tonight. Good luck, NP |
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10-21-23 | Michigan v. Michigan State UNDER 48 | Top | 49-0 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN TOY on the UNDER MI/MSU. As primarily a situational capper, this one ticks all the boxes for me to be a much more defensive battle than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The bottom line here is that I just don't see MSU scoring a lot here. That said, I also can't lay this large spread on the public road favorite either. Situationally though as I mentioned, it does set up well to be a much lower-scoring game than what this O/U line is suggesting. Michigan is 7-0 SU and it has a bye week after this. The only game it really has to worry about is Ohio State in the final week, but that games at home. It's hard to imagine the Wolverines looking past the Spartans, but I do think they'll take the foot off the gas and rest starters in the second half. Again, I have no faith that the Spartans will actually be able to score here, even in garbage time. Michigan has seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that the Wolverines have in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. However you cut it, I say this is a few too many points now finally this week. Michigan State is off four straight losses, and the last two outings have flown OVER the number. But now here at home facing Michigan, I say everything points to this total staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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10-21-23 | Charlotte v. East Carolina OVER 40 | 10-7 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 46 m | Show | |
This is an 8* AAC SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Charlotte/ECU. Both of these teams have been struggling to put points on the board of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this weekend. Both teams are 1-5. There's nothing to play for here now but pride essentially. I just don't see a lot of effort going into defense this weekend. These beleaguered offenses can finally take center stage. Charlotte has seen the total go UNDER in three straight after a 14-0 loss to Navy last time out. Note though that the 49ers have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. ECU is off a 31-10 home loss to SMU and it's also now seen the total go UNDER in three straight, which is also significant to note take note of here, as the Pirates have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in five or their last seven after playign to three or mores straight UNDERS in a row. Both team's numbers on both sides of the ball have been atrocious, but this one definitely sets up to be more of an offensive affair than a grind-it-out defensive one in my opinion. This number is low, the play is the OVER. (more analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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10-21-23 | Central Florida +19.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 116 h 34 m | Show |
This is 10* BIG 12 GOY on UCF. Outright victory?! I'm absolutely NOT predicting that of course. But if you've followed me for any length of time, then you know I am primarily a "situational" and contrarian handicapper, and this one definitely falls right into my "wheel-house."Â The majority of the early public money is definitely on 6-0 SU/ATS Oklahoma here. But I think the Sooners will in fact get caught looking past UCF here to its much more difficult upcoming schedule at KU and OKST respectively after this. I don't know if this a letdown spot, but overall it looks suspiciously like a "trap" to me for the home side. No such luxury obviously for 3-3 UCF, which enters off three straight SU/ATS losses in a row, most recently a 51-22 loss at the Jayhawks. But that was two weeks ago and now UCF comes in fresh and prepared for this contest as well (and note that the Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row.)Â Bye weeks can work one of two ways. Either they come at a great time for a team that needs a break, or they come at a horrible time and disrupt chemistry. Rest leads to rust here for OKL as well after it comes out of its bye week also (after a thrilling 34-30 outright win over Texas as a 4-point dog.)Â UCF has scored 31 points in four of six games this year and I expect a very competitive battle until the final moments. No outright, but closer than what this spread is suggesting; grab the points, the play is UCF. Good luck, NP |
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10-21-23 | Luton Town v. Nottingham Forest OVER 2.25 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL TOY on the OVER Luton Town/Nottingham Forest. Both teams have been struggling to put balls in the back of the net, but I'm expecting those trends to end finally this weekend. Nottingham Forest is looking to end a four-game winless run in the EPL. The Tricky Trees are currently in 14th in the table, but Luton Town is back in 17th. Since posting a 1-0 away win at Chelsea to open the season, Nottingham Forest has drawn three and lost one of its last four matches including back-to-back draws before the break. The positive though is that Forest has picked up nine points over its first eight games, which is five more than it managed at this point last season. City is unbeaten in six games at City Ground as well, and that includes a 2-1 win over Sheffield United and a 1-1 draw with Burnley. Luton Town went into the break on the heels of back-to-back losses, including a 1-0 defeat to Tottenham. Luton is hovering just above relegation, and the road ahead won't get any easier for it. These are two teams that are really at a crossroads right now, and really the International Break could not have come at a better time. Look for this faster-paced affair to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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10-20-23 | SMU v. Temple OVER 55.5 | Top | 55-0 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC TOW on the OVER SMU/Temple. In my opinion, all signs point to this particular ACC matchup on Friday night eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. SMU is 4-2 and looking to move one game closer to eligiblity this week. The Mustangs won't be sitting back and waiting for Temple to make the first mistake though vs. the 2-5 Owls, instead I believe the visiting side will keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. SMU is off a 31-10 destruction of ECU, and while it has now seen the total go UNDER the number in three straight, note that the Mustangs have in fact seen the total go OVER in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight unders in a row. Temple enters off four straight losses. It's been a combination of inconsistent offense along with terrible defense. When these teams played last year, SMU won by a score of 47-23 and I'm predicting a similar high-scoring outcome this season as well. SMU QB Preston Stone had 276 passing yards and three TD's last week and there's no reason not to think that he won't carry that momentum over here. Temple allowed 527 yards of offense last week and it'll be playing catchup here from the get go once again. As I mentioned off the top, all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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10-19-23 | Bruins v. Sharks OVER 6 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTIMATE TOTAL on the OVER Bruins/Sharks. I think this sets up great to be a wide-open offensive affair. Boston was a huge bust in the playoffs after destroying everyone in the regular season last year, but the Bruins are off a 2-0 start, with both games going UNDER the number. Both of those contests were at home. Now here on the West Coast to kick off a favorable five-game road trip that sees Boston playing mostly bottom-feeders in the Conference, I'm expecting a much more wide-open affair here in San Jose. Against an 0-2-1 Sharks team that's looking to respond after a 6-3 defeat here to Carolina last time out. San Jose was a +248 underdog in that one, and so far it's been a huge dog in every game it's played in this year. And that's once again the case here. I can't back either side in this case, but the overall situation in my opinion points to a wide-open offensive battle, rather than an intense defensive one. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints OVER 40 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 78 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* PRIME-TIME TOTAL on the OVER Jags/Saints. I think this non-conference game will be completely wide-open offensively and I expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The Saints are 3-3 and the Jags 4-3 and the Saints are 3-3. New Orleans has seen the total go UNDER the number in all six of its games so far this year, but that fact has only helped in driving this particular Thursday total a couple of points lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion. The Saints' defense looked great over the first 1/4 of the season, but it sure came back down to Earth vs. CJ Stroud and the Texans last week. Granted, it was only 20 points, but c'mon, it was a rookie QB we're talking about here! The Jaguars are rolling and Trevor Lawrence is coming off a huge game in hammering the Colts 37-20 on Sunday. Lawrence banged up his knee and is having an MRI, but he's expected to get the start here. CJ Beathard is his backup, but whoever gets the start, this O/U line has already been adjusted to take this situation into account. Whoever gets the start, I still really love this play. The Jags have 15 takeaways this year, which leads the NFL. This is a team that can hurt you in every phase. The Saints as I say have looked great defensively so far, but last week Derek Carr had his best yardage game so far in New Orleans with 353 yards. His team was 0 for 3 in the redzone, but now here at home, I expect those numbers to improve dramatically. On the short week, I believe it's going to be the defensive units that suffer the most in this contest. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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10-19-23 | James Madison v. Marshall +3.5 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -105 | 76 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUN BELT GAME OF YEAR on Marshall. The 4-2 Herd won't be rolling over here for the 6-0 Dukes. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The Dukes come in a tiny bit complacent here in my estimation after the great start and 28-point home win over Georgia Southern last time out. The Herd though will absolutely NOT be taking anything for granted here after B2B losses, including a 17-point setback to Georgia State in their latest action. This home game comes at an opportune time for Marshall. If it were on the road in this scenario, I would not be back in the Herd, but I can't understate how important I feel the home-field faithful will play in this contest. Clearly the outright is possible, but the official call is to grab as many points as you can with MARSHALL. Good luck, NP |
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10-18-23 | New Mexico State v. UTEP OVER 48.5 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* CONFERENCE-USA TOW on the OVER New Mexico State/UTEP. The Aggies are 4-3 and come in with 2-1 record in league play. They're off two striaght wins, inlcluding a 27-13 victory over Sam Houston State. The offense looked OK, but the fact that the defense allowed 13 points to the Bearkats is what I think is the major concern obviously (they're 0-6.) UTEP is just 2-5, but it's off a much-needed 27-14 road win over FIU on Wednesday, with QB Cade McConnel going 11 of 17 for 26 yards and two TD's. Overall the Aggies average 30 PPG, while allowing 26, while the Miners average 17.7, while allowing 26.1. UTEP has nothing to lose here, except another game. NMSU is just 1-2 on the road, so the Miners have a great opportunity here to pull off the mior upset at home and give themselves a slim hope still at a bowl berth. Two highly motivated teams collide here in Conference USA action on Wednesday night and everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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10-18-23 | Astros +1.5 v. Rangers | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SUPER BLOWOUT on the ASTROS on the RUNLINE. I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance here. The Rangers have been unbelievable to this point, but I predict the letdown here finally. Max Scherzer (13-7, 3.77 ERA) will make his first start since September 12th, and I say that "rest" leads to "rust" here. It's the playoffs and it's an entirely different animal despite his years of experience in this spot and I think it'll take him some time to acclimate to this level. Cristian Javier (1-0, 0.00 ERA) counters for the visitors, and he's yet to even allow a run over three career playoff starts. Overall he's 5-1 with a 1.91 ERA in 15 postseason appearances. I say that the Rangers run of good fortune finally comes to an end here. That said, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is HOUSTON on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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10-18-23 | Charlotte FC v. Inter Miami | Top | 2-2 | Push | 0 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* GOW on Charlotte FC on the spread option. This is a home and home set to end the year for the Clubs. Inter Miami has been eliminated and Messi isn't even playing in this one, away playing for his National team. Charlotte holds its playoff hopes in its own hands though and I'm expecting it to make the most of this opportunity. Inter Miami enters off a 1-0 loss to FC Cincinnati, while Charlotte FC enters off a crucial and momentum-building 2-0 win over the Chicago Fire. The Herons though got eliminated from playoff contention with their latest loss, and I just can't see the motivation here to play "spoiler" immediately after that collective mental letdown. Charlotte FC can make the playoffs if it wins out, and it would be the first time in club history if it does. With so much on the line, I think the correct call in this matchup is CHARLOTTE FC on the SPREAD option. Good luck, NP |
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10-17-23 | Stars v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Stars/Knights. This is the lowest total I've seen all season, and in my opinion, it's TOO low. Granted, Las Vegas hasn't played yet to a game that's eclipsed over five goals, winning its first three games by identical 4-1 scores. The Knights face the Stars, who are 1-0 and who saw their first game go UNDER the number as well. Note though that Las Vegas has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Too many UNDERS to open the year, that fact has helped in driving this O/U line lower than it normally would/should be. I'm anticipating a faster-paced and higher-scoring affair. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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10-17-23 | Middle Tennessee State +15 v. Liberty | Top | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* CONFERENCE-USA GOW on MTSU. The Blue Raiders are just 2-5, but they won't be going down without a fight this week. MTSU had a difficult early schedule and I think i'll give Liberty everything it can handle on Tuesday night. Liberty is the cream of the crop of the conference, 6-0, including 4-0 in league play. MTSU on the other hand is 0-3 on the road. The contrarian in me absolutely loves MTSU here, with the majority of the public money quick to back the Flames and these amazing numbers. And they are great, but I think this spread is just now too large, as every "Joe public" bettor is quick to bet the favorite in this one, not taking into account MTSU's early tough schedule whatsoever, only looking at the wins and losses. The Blue Raiders also come off their second win and cover of the seaosn in a 31-23 victory over Louisiana Tech. QB Nicholas Vattiato had 248 yards on 23 of 29 passing, two TD's and no INT's. Liberty has been fantastic, but with a game at WKU next weekend, the team right below them in the standings, not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but also a lookahead spot. Add those two factors together and you get "trap game" around these parts! Either way, I say that Vattiato keeps his team within striking distance down the stretch. No outright, but closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, the play is MTSU. Good luck, NP |
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10-16-23 | Panthers v. Devils UNDER 7 | Top | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE TOW on the UNDER Panthers/Devils. I think this one sets up great to be a lower-scoring defensive battle. Florida's desperate to get off the schneid after starting 0-2. It lost 2-0 at Minnesota, before falling 6-4 at the Jets. New Jersey is 1-1 after beating Detroit 4-3, and then falling 4-3 to Arizona in a shootout. Both games went OVER the number, but note that the Devils have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four off an upset home loss as a -200 or greater favorite. With the Panthers clamping down tight here like I'm expecting, all signs point to this contest being a very chippy, competitive battle, but more of a "war of attrition," where each teams waits for the other to make the first mistake. This number is high in my estimation, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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10-15-23 | Giants v. Bills OVER 44.5 | 9-14 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL on the OVER Giants/Bills. Danny Dimes and the Giants exceeded expectations last year, going OVER their season win total. Clearly, they've taken a big step back here in 2023/24. They're 1-4 right now. At 1-5, their season will officially be over. At 2-4, the Giants would have a chance. Note that Buffalo and its opponents have already averaged 49.5 points per game at home, which is quite a bit higher than what this particular total is set at. New York away games have only averaged 43.7 PPG this year, which is just slightly less than this O/U line for this one. Buffalo has been trading low-scoring games, with high-scoring ones after its Week 1 22-16 OT loss at the Jets, and Week 5's 25-20 setback across the pond to the Jaguars. Note though that the Bills have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last seven off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite. Depite New York's issues on the offensive end to this point, I'm expecting a more wide-open affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe here on Sunday night. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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10-15-23 | Patriots v. Raiders OVER 41.5 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC TOM on the OVER Pats/Raiders. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games to start the season, but I'm anticipating a shootout here finally between two clubs in dire straights. The Patriots are off the humbling 34-0 loss to New Orleans at home, which was preceded by a 38-3 loss at Dallas. At 2-4 the Patriots have a chance in the weak AL East, but at 1-5, it's time for Bill Bellichick to start considering his next move. Las Vegas is coming off a big 17-13 home win over the Packers. The Raiders have seen the total go UNDER the number in three straight, but note that Las Vegas has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last eight after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. It's now or never for Mac Jones. Jimmy Garopolo will certainly be motivated here facing his former team as well. With these two highly-motivated QB's going head-to-head, I finally look for these teams to be involved in a higher-scoring "shootout."Â The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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10-15-23 | Seahawks +3 v. Bengals | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on the Seahawks. The Seahawks continue to find ways to win, including on the road and I feel that they have much more than just a "punchers chance" here against this inconsistent Bengals team. Seattle is 3-1 overall, including 2-0 on the road, while Cincinnati is 2-3, including 1-1 at home. The Hawks though come out of their bye and I say it was at a really opportune time. If Seattle pulls off the minor upset here it heads home at 4-1 for two straight winnable games (Cards and Browns.) Clearly the Bengals can't afford to look past anyone after their inconsistent start. I had Cincinnati last weekend in its 34-20 win at Arizona, but with a week off next week, followed by a game at the 49ers, the Bengals have lots of off-field scheduling issues which could have a mental effect on the home side on Sunday. Joe Burrow had a big game against the Cardinals poor secondary, but doing the same thing against Seattle will be more difficult. The Bengals have been terrible in stopping the run, which works in favor of the visitors as well. Seattle has struggled against the pass, but Burrow hasn't been himself this year. With a week off to prepare, I like Geno Smith and the HAWKS to deliver the goods. Good luck, NP |
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10-15-23 | Saints v. Texans OVER 42.5 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Saints/Texans. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games to open the season, but I'm expecting those trends to finally end this weekend in this interesting non-conference matchup. The Saints have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in all five games they've played so far this year, including in their 34-0 win at the Patriots last weekend. Great defensive play has seen the Saints start the season 3-2, but I think we'll finally see a more wide-open offensive affair here this weekend. Or at least, I absolutely believe that the fact that New Orleans has played to so many low-scoring defensive battles to open the season, has influenced the oddsmakers this week, as this O/U line is definitely now TOO low, and the value now swings the other way as far as the total is concerned this week. Houston is 2-3. It had its two game win streak snapped in last week's 21-19 loss at Atlanta. The Texans' CJ Stroud has yet to throw an interception and I think he and the Saints' Derek Carr will be the main storyline in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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10-15-23 | Ravens v. Titans OVER 42.5 | Top | 24-16 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACROSS THE POND TOTAL on the OVER Ravens/Titans. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm finally expecting some offensive fireworks here across the pond. Baltimore has seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that LaMar Jackson and company have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Tennessee has also played to three straight UNDERS after a 23-16 upset loss as a 2.5-point favorite at Indianapolis last weekend, but note that the Titans have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite. The Ravens are off the tough loss to Pittsburgh, but I think we have a classic "duel" on our hands here between veteran quarterbacks this week. If you add up the offensive and defensive numbers, the public will be quick to jump on the UNDER, but I say the situation and the numbers/trends point to the OVER as the correct call. Good luck, NP |
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10-14-23 | Boise State v. Colorado State UNDER 60.5 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Boise State/CSU. Boise State is 3-3 and Colorado State is 2-3. So far each has played to several higher-scoring games to open the season, but all signs point to a much more defensive affair finally here in Week 7 in this particular matchup in my opinion. Boise State has seen the total go OVER the number in five of six games this season, including in four straight, while CSU has seen the total go OVER in four of its last five, including in its 44-34 loss to Utah State last week. That's a lot of collective OVERs played to by each side, but that fact, in my opinion, has now pushed this particular total a few points higher than it normally would/should be. Boise State has faced some stiff competition, including a 56-19 season-opening loss to Washington. The Broncos numbers are somewhat skewed, but they looked good in last week's 35-27 win over SJSU, with QB Maddux Madsen going for 155 yards and a TD. Colorado State suffered two beatdown losses out of the gate as well, falling 50-24 to WSU, then 43-35 to Colorado in OT. Last week they had a 17-3 lead over Utah State, before then falling apart in the 44-24 loss. CSU won't be rolling over here, and it can't afford to get into a shoot-out either. I see a much more defensive affair here this week than what the oddsmakers are tryihng to lead us to believe. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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10-14-23 | New England v. Nashville SC -132 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* MLS GOW on Nashville SC. Nashville SC is currently in seventh in the MLS Eastern Conference. It's coming off a 0-0 draw with Philadelphia last weekend. New England is in fifth place, but enters off a poor 3-2 loss to Orlando City. Both teams have failed to live up to expectations this year, but this one simply means a lot more to the home side. Finally, note that New England is winless in its last 12 matches in a visitors role. Home field proves to be the difference-maker here for NASHVILLE SC on Saturday night. Good luck, NP |
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10-14-23 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh +8 | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 123 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh. No outright here, but I think that Pittsburgh will be risking life and limb to try and do just that, and while I expect that effort to ultimatley come up short here vs. the 6-0 Louisville Cardinals, I do think it'll be more than enough to comfortably cover with what I feel is a very healthy spread. Louisville is 6-0 cruising right now, especially with a bye game next week, followed by a home game vs. Duke at the end of the month. Off the 33-20 home win over Notre Dame as a six-point underdog, not only does this set up as a natural "letdown" spot in my opinion, but also a "look ahead." No such luxury obviously for the 1-4 Panthers. With six games remaining, Pittsburgh has to try to find a way to pull off some upsets if it has any hopes of making a bowl game. I base my picks on many different things, but this particular one is a fantastic "situational" one. No outright, but much closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is the PANTHERS! Good luck, NP |
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10-14-23 | Flyers +1.5 v. Senators | 2-5 | Loss | -155 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER BLOWOUT on the Flyers puckline. The Flyers are off the 4-2 road win at Columbus, and I think they offer great value as a live dog here in Canada's capital as well on Saturday afternoon. The Sens are off the 5-3 loss at Carolina, but with the Lightning coming to town tomorrow, this sets up as a "look ahead" for the home side as well. The Sens looked terrible defensively in the loss to the Hurricanes, and now they face another up-tempo and explosive offense and while I do think an outright is possible, the official call is to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 goals of insuarance. The play is PHILADELPHIA on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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10-14-23 | Georgia v. Vanderbilt UNDER 57.5 | Top | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 118 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* SEC TOY on the UNDER Georgia/Vanderbilt. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to open the season, but I'm finally expecting a more defensive affair here. Vanderbilt is 2-5 SU, but 0-7 ATS. It's seen the O/U go 6-0-1 this year. Georgia is 6-0 SU and it's seen the total go OVER in three straight after last week's 51-13 win over Kentucky (note though that the Bulldogs have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.) Georgia QB Carson Beck had 389 yards and four TD's in the win over Kentucky last week. The defense though was likely even more impressive in holding the Wildcats to just 13 points. I can't see Vanderbilt even scoring ten in this game In fact, when these teams played last year, Georgia won by a score of 55-0. I foresee a slightly smaller combined score this time around though. Last week the Commodores fell 38-14 to Florida, and I expect a similar final combined score in this one as well. QB Ken Seals remains a bright spot for Vandy, but his line is going to be decimated today, he's going to be running for his life from start to finish. Last week the Commodores were just 1-of-10 on third-down tries. When you add it all up, this total is definitely high. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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10-13-23 | Fresno State v. Utah State UNDER 60.5 | Top | 37-32 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* MW TOM on the UNDER Fresno State/Utah State. The Fresno State Bulldogs are no slouches on defense. They're 5-1 overall and they own the 25th-ranked scoring defense, which will make 3-3 Utah State careful here. So far the average point total in Fresno State games this year has only been 49.8 PPG. Utah State has played to five straight OVERS, but note that the Aggies have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row. I see this game being decided by field position and in the trenches, and because of that I'm on the UNDER. (more analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 50.5 | Top | 8-19 | Win | 100 | 82 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC TOW on the UNDER Broncos/Chiefs. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to open the season, but on the short week here on Thursday night, I'm finally expecting more of a defensive affair. The Broncos have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after suffering a humiliating 31-21 home loss to the lowly Jets as 2.5-point favs last week. Note though that Denver has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Sean Payton and the Broncos are struggling, and for all intents and purposes, this is Denver's "do or die" game. A 1-5 hole would be too big to climb out of. Clearly, the last thing the Broncos can do is to turn this into a shootout and try to hang with Mahomes. Denver has been terrible defensively this year, but it'll be all hands on deck to try and somehow pull off an upset. And I just don't see KC running up the score here. I think the Chiefs defense though has been great overall, allowing no more than 20 points in any game so far this season. Russell Wilson has struggled with consistency, and I expect that'll again be the case here in the National spotlight and on the short week. This one sets up to be a defensive affair, and that's what I'm expecting. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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10-12-23 | SMU v. East Carolina OVER 50 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* AAC TOM on the OVER SMU/ECU. I'm expecting a shootout here between two hungry conference rivals on Thursday night. SMU is 3-2 and ECU is 1-4. SMU's two losses were both road games vs. tough teams. The Mustangs will be looking to keep the foot on the gas here though as they look to improve their bowl chances. SMU hasn't played since September 30th vs. Charlotte, going on to win 34-16, led by QB Preston Stone with 135 yards passing and two TD's. But Jaylan Knight stole the show offensively with 150 yards rushing and two rushing TDs as well. ECU has faced some stiff competition, falling to Michigan, Marshall and Appalachian State. But then they also fell to Rice 24-17 last week, giving up points in every quarter. I just see this being a completely wide-open offensive affair here. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but the overall situation, in my opinion, finally points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. (More analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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10-12-23 | Rangers v. Sabres +118 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DESTROYER on the Sabres. New York went 47-22-13 and lost to the Devils in the first round last year, while Buffalo went 42-33-7 and just missed out on the playoffs. These teams played three times last year, and the Sabres went 2-1. All three games went to OT. The Rangers have a new coach in Peter Laviolette and they also have a few new faces. Igor Shesterkin is an amazing goaltender, but I'm a little unsure if his defense will be as good as it was in front of him last year. New York averaged 3.28 GPG, which was 12th. It's Playoffs or Bust for Buffalo this year. Last year the Sabres were the third-highest scoring team with 3.62 GPG. They allowed 3.58 GPG, but they also have some new faces in the line-up to help goaltender Devon Levi get to the next level this season. I like BUFFALO at home here and believe its superior offense will win the day on Opening Night. Good luck, NP |
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10-11-23 | Senators v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | 3-5 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ULTIMATE TOTAL on the UNDER Sens/'Canes. I will be playing it very conservatively over the first week of the new season. Last night I had a great situational play on the UNDER in the Kraken/Knights game, and this one here in Carolina sets up similarly to that one in many respects. Because of that, I'll also be recommending a play on the UNDER here. Last year's stats and what happened in the off-season now means nothing now that the new season has started. Both teams have two nights off after this contest, so they have nothing to look past to here. Scoring was up in the NHL last year and the O/U lines reflected that change. Here on opening night though, where anything can happen, I'm expecting a "feeling out" period here from each side. Ultimately I believe this total is just a little too high, so I'm on the UNDER in this one. Good luck, NP |
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10-10-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 60 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* OPENING-NIGHT TOTAL on the UNDER Kraken/Knights. As a professional sports handicapper (meaning, someone who makes prognostications on professional sports, and college as well obviously), I think it's impossible to keep 100% track of every player transaction in the offseason, of every up and coming rookie and every player and coaching change. It's impossible. The people at ESPN that report on these things concentrate on just ONE sport, and also have a TEAM of writers to help them write their "scripts."Â After doing this for 20 years, I've found its much easier to be "selective" over the first week when a sport starts up again, until I'm then able to get a proper "read" on the teams and get a "feel" for what the new season is all about. And so with that in mind, I'll definitely be playing selectively here to open up the 2023/24 NHL campaign, and here as well on Opening night. Here's a great "situational" play in my opinion. One of the biggest surprises last year was the exceptional play of the Seattle Kraken, especially on the road. Las Vegas strength is on the defensive end, especially at home though. The Kracken also have exceptional goaltending and was a big reason for Seattle's success last year. We have some large totals here on Opening night, but in my opinion everything points to a very defensive affair here in the desert on Tuesday night. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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10-10-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Rangers | 1-7 | Loss | -165 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Orioles RUNLINE. The Rangers have been surging, but at some point they're going to have a letdown. I'm predicting tonight is that night. With their season on the line, I like the Orioles to dig deep here and to find a way to deliver the goods. However, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, ultimately I'm going to recommend laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. It's the Rangers first home game so far in the playoffs, having gone 4-0 on the road. Baltimore though was also fantastic on the road this season, finishing 52-29 away from friendly confines. Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 1.35 ERA) has been great for the Rangers so far, but he's just in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" today in my estimation. The visitors counter with Dean Kremer (13-5. 4.12) who will mke his first start since September 28th when he held the Red Sox scoreless on two hits over six innings. For all the reasons listed above, the play is BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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10-10-23 | Louisiana Tech v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 54.5 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 36 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* CONF-USA TOW on the UNDER LT/MTSU. Louisiana Tech is 3-4, while MTSU is just 1-5. Louisiana Tech is 2-1 in league play. Last week though the Bulldogs fell 35-28 to WKU in a high-scoring affair. Their two conference wins were a 22-17 victory over FIU and a 24-10 win over UTEP. The Bulldogs are led by Jack Turner, who has 849 passing yards and a poor 4:4 TD:INT. The defense is conceding 28 PPG. MTSU will be desperate to stop the slide here. It's coming off a disappointing 45-30 loss to Jacksonville State last weekend, as the Blue Raiders had the lead going into the half. Nicholas Vattiato has 1,576 passing yards and a 9:6 TD:INT. Overall the defense concedes a whopping 37.2 PPG. Both teams have played to several higher-scoring games against each other in the past, and recently as well, but the overall situation here finally points to more of a defensive affair in my opinion. MTSU has been trading Overs with Unders since the start of the season, and after its blowout loss here at home last week, I'm expecting this pattern to continue here on Tuesday. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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10-09-23 | Packers v. Raiders -130 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 34 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* PRIME-TIME PUNI$HER on the Raiders MONEYLINE. The Packers are 2-2, and the Raiders are 1-3. Las Vegas was supposed to take a step forward this season, meaning that this Week 5 game is huge. A 1-4 start will be a difficult hole to climb out of though obviously. But at 2-3 the Raiders, who just lost to division rival LA 24-17 as 7-point dogs last weekend, would in fact be right behind the Chargers going into Week 6 for the second spot in the division (behind the Chiefs), who are on their bye this weekend. It's a big game for sure for the home side, and because of that I'm going to avoid this small spread altogether, and instead be making a play on Las Vegas on the moneyline option to just win this game outright. The Packers won in Week 1 on the road in Chicago 38-20, but after that emotional divisional victory, they predictably stumbled the following week at Atlanta 25-24. In their most recent 34-20 beatdown home loss to Detroit, Jordan Love once again looked lost. The Packers were outgained 401-230 in the setback. Love ranks 34th in the NFL in completion percentage. Jimmy Garappolo should be back under center for the Raiders, which despite his early numbers, would obviously be a good thing. Josh Jacobs has yet to break loose, but he's always a dangerous and potential threat. Aaron Jones is questionable as well for Green Bay, which throws into question the run game for the visiting side, which makes its one-dimensional offense even more so. Both teams have a lot of things to work through. With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers believe (or at least are trying to lead us to believe), that these teams are very evenly matched coming into this one. And they are, but the overall "SITUATION" definitely favors the home side here, and that tips the scales in favor of the RAIDERS for sure on Monday night. In a contest that I see being decided in the trenches and by field position, I look for the RAIDERS to find a way to get the job done this week. Good luck, NP |
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10-08-23 | Jets v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL DOMINATION on the UNDER Jets/Broncos. Despite their offenses in turmoil most weekends, both of these teams have played to several higher-scoring games to open the season. New York has seen the total go 2-2 so far after last week's 23-20 loss to KC. Denver though has seen the total go OVER the number in three straight after its first win of the year in last week's 31-28 win at Chicago. Previous to that the Broncos lost 70-20 to the Dolphins. That's a whopping 98 points that Denver has conceded over the last two games, but thankfully this now highly-motivated defense catches a break facing the anemic Jets, who look complete lost and in dire need of an identity. Unfortunately, I don't see a lot of chemistry magically coming together for Zach Wilson here in Week 5. The only chance NY has is to establih the run and to turn Wilson into a game manager, while hoping that tough defensive play and special teams will be the difference-maker. I see this game being won in the trenches and by field position and because of that, I'm on the UNDER in this one. Good luck, NP |
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10-08-23 | Bengals -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 47 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF GOM on the Bengals. For all intents and purposes, this is a "must win" game for each side. An 1-4 hole would be difficult for even the Bengals to climb out of. Cincinnati and Joe Burrow clearly have some issues, but I think they will do enough here to earn the victory on the road vs. Arizona, which wasn't supposed to do much of anything this season anyways. The Bengals are off a 27-3 loss vs. Tennessee, a game in which they ere pegged as the 2.5-point favorite. Burrow continues to play through a calf injury. Clealry, to this point, he hasn't been "himself" yet this year. So far the Bengals are averaging 12.3 PPG, while allowing 23.5. The Cardinals have caught many by surprise early, as they're 3-1 ATS. Last week though they lost 35-16 to the 49ers. Joshua Dobbs has 815 passing yards and a 4:0 TD:INT, but the strength for the Cards' offense is the run game, behind James Conner. The Cards' defense though is pure trash, and this is the moment that I believe Burrow will finally put it all together. For the record, Arizona averages 22 points and allows 25. Arizona's pass defense ranks 24th, so it's now or never for the Bengals. Lay the points, the play is CINCINNATI. Good luck, NP |
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10-08-23 | Saints v. Patriots OVER 39 | Top | 34-0 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Saints/Patriots. Both teams have been involved in many tight, lower-scoring defensive-battles to open the season, but I'm now finally expecting more of an offensive "shootout" here between these non-conference opponents. As a rule, I like to bet on motivated teams when wagering on an "over" and that's definitely the case here for both the 2-2 Saints and the 1-3 Patriots. Both offenses have struggled to this point, but non-conference matchups more often than not are less intense defensively, and I expect that definitely to be the case here this weekend. It's easy just to look at the offensive and defensive numbers and predict what the combined outcome of a game will be, but that's simply not the way it works in the "real" world. Betting totals is about betting "situations" and in my opinion, this number is now just TOO low. New England is coming off the terrible 38-3 loss at Dallas and it'll be desperate to avoid the 1-4 hole. It's seen the total go UNDER in three straight, which is significant to note here as the Pats have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in six of their last eight after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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10-08-23 | Ravens v. Steelers OVER 38 | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL TOTAL on the OVER Ravens/Steelers. It's a big divisional matchup here, and I believe we're going to see a competitive, and ultimately higher-scoring contest than what this O/U line is leading us to believe. Baltimore is 3-1 so far this year, including 2-0 on the road, while Pittsburgh is 2-2 overall, and 1-1 at home. The Ravens have played to back-to-back UNDERS, most recently the 28-3 win at Cleveland last weekend. Note though that Baltimore has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after a SU/ATS road victory in which it held its opponent to three or less points in. Pittsburgh has also seen the total go UNDER in two straight, including in last week's 30-6 loss at Houston as a three-point favorite. Note though that the Steelers have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite. Lamar Jackson has a 4:1 TD:INT so far for the Ravens. He also has a sharp 104.2 QB rating overall. So far Baltimore averages 24.8 PG, while allowing 14.5. The Steelers behind Kenny Picket are averaging 15.5 PPG. Pickett has thrown four picks so far. Pittsburgh's weakness though has been its defense, conceding 403 yards and an average of 25 PPG to opponents so far. The last five games between these teams have gone UNDER the number, but I say the situation now points to more of an offensive affair here. The Steelers can't sit back and hope that Baltimore makes the first mistake. After last week's terrible performance, I look for Pittsburgh to be a lot more efficent in front of the home town crowd. Ultimatetly, this number is just a bit TOO low by my reckoning. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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10-07-23 | Oregon State v. California +9.5 | Top | 52-40 | Loss | -109 | 124 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC 12 GOM on Cal. Oregon State is 4-1 and Cal is 3-2, but this is one that favors the home side in my opinion. The Beavers are led by QB DJ Uiagalelei, who has 1,032 passing yards and an 8:4 TD:INT. The ground game has been the strength though, averaging 206.8 YPG. The defense concedes 15.6 PPG so far. Cal is looking for its third home win of the year. QB Sam Jackson V has 556 passing yards and a 5:2 TD:INT. The ground game though is also the strength of the Golden Bears offense, averaging 212.2 yards per game. It certainly doesn't get any "easier" for the Golden Bears moving forward, with a game at Utah after this, followed by a home game vs. USC, and then a game Oregon. The Bears need three more wins to become eligible, and this is one of the few games left on the schedule where they have an opportunity to pull off a legitimate outright victory. But I'm not suggesting that will happen. What I am trying to lay out here is the fact that Cal will definitely be giving a full four-quarter effort here, and I say that the ample evidence listed above firmly points to Oregon taking the foot off the gas in the second half and leaving the backdoor open just enough for the hungry home side to sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is CAL. Good luck, NP |
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10-07-23 | Kentucky v. Georgia -14.5 | Top | 13-51 | Win | 100 | 122 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* SEC GOY on Georgia. Both of these SEC teams are 5-0 SU, but Kentucky is 4-1 ATS, while Georgia is just 1-4 ATS. Clearly the Wildcats' competition to this point has to be called into question. Georgia hasn't had the stiffest competition either, but while the Bulldogs didn't cover last weekend, they definitely won an important one at Auburn by a score of 27-20 (-14 point fav.) Now here back at home, here's a contest that I see the home side keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish. Last week Kentucky got a career-day out of RB Ray Davis, who carried 26 times for a whopping 280 yards and three TD's. Suffice it to say, I'm not expecting lightning to "strike twice" here this weekend. Last week Georgia held on, as QB Carson Beck went 23 of 33 for 313 yards with a TD. The difference here though for the visiting side is that for the first time all year it's going to be facing a really good defense. Georgia needs a break out game, and this is going to be it. Lay the points, the play is indeed on GEORGIA. Good luck, NP |
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10-07-23 | Texas State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 67.5 | Top | 30-34 | Win | 100 | 123 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUNBELT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Texas State/UL Lafayette. Texas State is averages 41.7 points per game while Louisiana is averages 38.7. Neither has been fantastic defenisvely either, as Texas State allows an average of 27.2 points per game and Louisiana 27.5. Texas State QB TJ Finley will be facing a Louisana defense that has 18 sacks already and four INT's. Louisana QB Ben Woolridge is more of a game manager, and the last thing that the Cajuns can afford to do here at home is turn this into a "track meet" with the Bobcats and expect to hang down the stretch. Woolridge wil face an underrated defense that has 15 sacks and three INT's. While these teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to open the season, I suspect this Week 6 battle to finally stay well UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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10-07-23 | Boston College v. Army UNDER 52.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 120 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the UNDER BC/Army. Army is 2-2 SU, while BC is 2-3. The Black Knights are 1-0 at home, while the Eagles are 0-1 on the road. Army will be looking to chew up the clock and control the ball while on offense. Thomas Castellanos helped rally to beat Virginia last week for the Eagles, but this is just a bad matchup for the visiting side. Army is a favorite here for a reason, and it's not going to be because it gets into a "shootout" here with the visiting side. All five games of BC's have eclipsed the posted number so far this year, but that fact has only helped in driving this particular total a few points higher than it normally would/should be as well. I'm expecting a much more defensive affair than what this O/U line is suggesting. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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10-06-23 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State +12 | Top | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 104 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 GOM on Oklahoma State. The 3-1 K-State Wildcats are at Oklahoma State to take on the 2-2 Cowboys, and in my opinion, this is one that favors the home side. K-State is 3-0 SU/ATS at home, but 0-1 SU/ATS on the road, falling 30-27 at Missouri as a 3-point favorite. I think the Wildcats will stumble here in this difficult road venue as well. Oklahoma State has been inconsistent over its first four games, but here's a golden opporunity to get back on track. Outright win? I'm not going to call that or anything here, but I do definitely expect the Cowboys to put up a much bigger fight than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. K-State is led by QB Will Howard, who has 1,072 yards passing and an 8:4 TD:INT. Overall the Wildcats allow 18.5 PPG. The Cowboys have won seven of their last nine at home. QB Alan Bowman has 513 yards passing, and a 2:3 TD:INT. THe ground game averages 121.8 YPG. The defense concedes 23.8 PPG. Despite that though, there's no way that K-State should be double-digit chalk favorite in this conference contest. I say the Wildcats do secure the outright victory, but it certainly won't be a cake walk. Grab the points, the play is Oklahoma State. Good luck, NP |
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10-05-23 | Bears +6 v. Commanders | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SIDE BLOWOUT on the BEARS on the MONEYLINE. I say that this is the week that the Bears finally post one in the win column. It's now or never, do or die. Chicago's playoff hopes are slim to none anyways, but there's no question that an 0-5 start would be the final nail in the coffin on the season and time to play for the 2024/25 campaign. Justin Fields had his best game of the season last year with a 4:1 TD:INT ratio. The Bears' defense fell apart down the stretch to an equally as desperate Broncos side, but they now catch a struggling offense at just the right time in my estimation. Sam Howell was decent last week for Washington as well, but the Commanders defense also completely collapsed on the road in the setback to the Eagles. Howell thogh has a 4:5 TD:INT and I'm giving Fields the big nod in this particular QB matchup this weekend. Fields took a big step forward last week, and with his coaches job on the line essentially, and his own as a possible starting QB in the future, I'm expecting Chicago to find a way to deliver the straight up win on the road this weekend. The Commanders are the more dejected team after their close but no cigar loss to the Eagles last week. The play is indeed CHICAGO on the MONEYLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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