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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-30-24 | Braves v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUNLINE BK on the Mariners. Seattle has won four of its last five after winning the opener of this interleague series last night by a score of 2-1. Once again the Mariners are getting little respect from the oddsmakers in my opinion, as the public will be quick to back the Braves almost every game, and almost every time after a loss. But further regression is imminent for Atlanta in my opinion. And regression is definitely in store for Reynaldo Lopez (2-0, 0.72 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) who has been unrealistically perfect for the Braves to this point. He'll be opposed by Luis Castillo (2-4, 4.15), who is coming off a second straight strong outing, giving up two runs and striking out six over six frames in a victory over the Rangers on Thursday. Look for Castillo's progression to continue here in what I feel is a favorable matchup. While the outright is possible, I feel the overall best value here is to for sure lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. And that's the play, SEATTLE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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04-29-24 | Lakers v. Nuggets -7 | Top | 106-108 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* WEST-CONF GOW on the Nuggets. The Lakers didnt' get swept. But now they're about to lose here in the thin air of Denver in Game 5. I'm predicting not only a victory for the Nuggets, but a blowout win in fact. The Lakers were just 20-23 on the road this year, while the Nuggets were 35-8. The cast of characters and strengths and weaknesses of each of these teams is well known, so I don't need to break down the individual player matchups or give you any background on what's going on. Denver is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent though. Look for the defending champs to make an example of the King tonight and to keep the pedal to the metal until the final horn. Lay the points, the play is DENVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-29-24 | Lightning +1.5 v. Panthers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-CONF GOW on the Lightning puckline. Are the Lightning going to make a big come back after going down 3-0 to the Panthers? Probably not! But they did win Game 4 and they won't be going down without a fight here either in Game 5 in my estimation. The Bolts are filled with veteran experience and talent. If any team in history could pull off a comeback, it's this group. Do I really think that's going to happen? I don't, as this Florida team has to still be feeling really confident. But I do expect the Panthers to be a little tight here and for the Lightning to be the ones putting the pressure on. So in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm grabbing TAMPA on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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04-29-24 | Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 9 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL EAST TOW on the UNDER Yanks/Orioles. I'm expecting a duel here in the opener of this AL East series. This is the first series between the clubs this season. New York is 19-10 and Baltimore is 17-10. The Yanks have seen the total fly OVER the number in three straight after yesterday's 15-5 win at Milwaukee. The Yanks have scored 30 runs over their last two games, but note that New York has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Baltimore lost two of three to the A's here over the weekend, including yesterday's contest by a score of 7-6. Note that the Orioles have in fact seen the total dip below the number in three of their last four off an upset home loss as a fav. We have two solid starters going head-to-head, and I'm expecting each to battle deep. Clark Schmidt (2-0, 3.55 ERA) gets the call for the Yanks, while Grayson Rodriguez (3-1, 4.45) counters for the home side. While each side has played to several higher-scoring games of late, the opener of this one finally points to much more of a lower-scoring "duel."Â The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-28-24 | Clippers v. Mavs OVER 209 | Top | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Clippers/Mavericks. So far the first three games have all gone UNDER the number, but that fact has only helped in contrbuting to this O/U line being a couple points lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion. Dallas has won two straight, but note that LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to 95 or fewer points in. The Dallas defense has been tight over the last two games, but I'm finally expecting this talented Clippers' offense to get going here in this crucial contest for both teams. This faster pace will lead to higher-scoring game finally. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-28-24 | Jets v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 106 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* PLAYOFF PAY-OFF on the UNDER Jets/Avs. Everything points to a tight defensive battle here finally in Game 4 in my opinion, after the first three games in this series have all flown well OVER the number. Note that the Avs have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS as well. Winnipeg was favored going into this series, but it's now going to be risking life and limb to try and even things up. Look for this to translate into a very lower-scoring defensive battle here in Game 4. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-28-24 | Yankees v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 15-5 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* IL TOTAL BOB on the UNDER Yanks/Brewers. The first two games of this IL series have flown well OVER the number, but with a couple of red hot and in-form starters going head-to-head in the finale, I'm finally expecting a "duel." The Yanks hand the ball to Marcus Stroman (2-1, 2.93 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), while the Brewers counter with Tobias Myers (0-1, 1.80, 1.00.)Â Milwaukee has also seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last eight after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. After yesterday's 15-3 loss here to New York, I expect this pattern to continue with these two capable starting pitchers squaring off. This O/U line is now high in my opinion, so the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-27-24 | Diamondbacks v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL TOTAL on the OVER D-Backs/Mariners. These are two teams in need of a win. Arizona is 12-14 and Seattle is 13-12. The Diamondbacks have lost back-to-back games now, scoring just one run in each. Seattle has now seen the total go UNDER the number in five straight, but that's signficant to note as the M's have in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Slade Cecconi (1-0, 3.00 ERA and 0.33 WHIP) looks poised for regression here in the PNW in my opinion for the visitors, while at the same time I don't see Mariners' starter George Kirby (2-2, 5.33 ERA and 1.30 WHIP) correcting his problems immediately. With each starter getting chased early, everything does finally point to a higher-scoring OVER between these two normally lower-scoring teams. Good luck, NP |
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04-27-24 | Hurricanes v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST on the OVER Canes/Isles. New York is down 3-0 in this series and is likely going to be golfing after today. Note though that the Isles have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. With each team pushing the pace like I anticipate, I'm expecting a very high-scoring outcome once it's all said and done. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-27-24 | Cavs v. Magic OVER 201.5 | Top | 89-112 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Cavaliers/Magic. Do I expect the Magic to build off their blowout 121-83 win over the Cavaliers here in Game 3?! I sure do! And do I think that Cleveland will bounce back offensively after that disastrous shooting performance last time out? I also believe that will be the case. The shift in venue will help in this being another offensive affair, in fact I'm expecting even more points than what we saw in Game 3. With both teams pushing the pace like I suspect, everything does indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later this afternoon. Good luck, NP |
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04-26-24 | Wolves v. Suns OVER 207.5 | Top | 126-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* O/U BK on the OVER Wolves/Suns. Game 1 went OVER in the Wolves 120-95 win, while Game 2 went UNDER in Minnesota's 105-93 victory. I'm anticipating a more wide-open offensive affair like what we say in Game 1. In fact, note that Phoenix has seen the total eclipse the posted number in still eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss in which it was held to 95 or fewer points in. With their backs against the wall and now back in front of the home town crowd, look for Phoenix, much like the Magic last night, to now push the pace from start to finish and ultimately expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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04-26-24 | Diamondbacks v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOB on the OVER D-Backs/Mariners. I think we're going to see some offensive fireworks here in the opener of this Interleague battle. Arizona hands the ball to Zac Gallen (3-1, 3.00 ERA), while the home side counters with the erratic Emerson Hancock (2-2, 6.10.)Â Seattle has seen the total go UNDER in three straight after taking two of three at Texas, but note that the Mariners have in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. This number is a little low, so the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-26-24 | Canucks v. Predators -106 | 2-1 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PLAY on the Predators. Nashville got the split in Vancouver, winning Game 2 by a score of 4-1. Vancouver is now forced to move forward with backup goaltender Case DeSmith, who I really respect, but who clearly was a big reason why Vancouver fell apart in Game 2. The advantage now goes to Juuse Saros at home and when you also add in this very fair price, all signs do indeed point to the NASHVILLE as being the savvy wager in Game 3. Good luck, NP |
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04-25-24 | Hurricanes -154 v. Islanders | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ROUT on the Hurricanes. With a chance to take a strangle-hold on this series, I think Carolina will do just that here in New York. Carolina's offense was firing on all cylinders in its come back in Game 2, scoring five unanswered goals and I believe that momentum gets carried over here: “Just the momentum of us tying the game, and the energy that it sends — I don't really know how to describe it, you get a whole juice that just hits you," said Carolina forward Jordan Martinook after. New York is down 0-2 and it's also in a big mental hole after that collapse in Game 2. Caorlina won both regular season games here and I expect that trend to continue. Lay the price, the play is CAROLINA. Good luck, NP |
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04-25-24 | Cavs v. Magic OVER 199 | Top | 83-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BEST BET on the OVER Cavs/Magic. The first two games of this series have gone well UNDER the number, but I think this Game 3 and the shift in venue will spark this Magic offense finally, and I look for this competitive contest to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later because of that. The Cavs have a commanding 2-0 lead, but Orlando was 29-12 at home this year, including 27-13 ATS. I think the Magic will put forth their best effort here. Also note that they've seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to 95 or fewer points in. With each team pushing the pace like I anticipate from start to finish, everything points to this total finally flying OVER the posted number. Good luck, NP |
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04-25-24 | Blue Jays v. Royals OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Jays/Royals. We have two really decent starters going head-to-head here in this getaway game, but after the first three games have all gone UNDER the number, I'm finally expecting some offensive fireworks here on Thursday afternoon. Toronto goes with Jose Berrios (4-0, 0.85 ERA) who has been unbelievable, but who clearly is poised for regression. And the home side counters with Cole Ragans (0-2, 4.32), who hasn't been terrible or anything, but certainly nothing to write home about. The overall situation though for this one definitely points to much more of a "slug-fest" than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in my opinion, so the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-24-24 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Thunder | Top | 92-124 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* BK on the Pels. The Pels had a chance to win Game 1 in their 94-92 setback. I'm anticipating another tight game until the end here. I even considered taking New Orleans on the moneyline, but in the end let's grab up all these points. Zion Williamson is still out likely to next weekend, but CJ McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas will be able to once again pick up the slack in my opinion. The Thunder were a great regular season team, but they're in unchartered territory right now for most of these guys. Playing as the No. 1 seed in the playoffs puts a target on your back. Both teams shot poorly in Game 1. New Orleans has the depth and veteran experience to once again make Game 2 interesting. While I do think an outright is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with NEW ORLEANS. Good luck, NP |
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04-24-24 | Golden Knights v. Stars UNDER 6 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Knights/Stars. The first game went OVER the numberin the Knights 4-3 victory, but I'm anticipating a much more defensive battle here in Game 2. Vegas has already stolen home ice advantage, so Dallas will be risking life and limb here to avoid the 0-2 hole. And to do that, I'm fully expecting the home side to double down on the defensive end. Logan Thompson looked good in net for Vegas, stopping 27 of 30 shots. Adin Hill could see action here as well. Jake Oettinger has all the tools in place here to bounce back for the Stars. Look for Game 2 to be much more defensive overall, as the play is indeed on the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-24-24 | Blue Jays v. Royals +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RUNLINE BLOWOUT on the Royals. In a contest that I see being tight, possibly even decided in extra innings, I'm going to suggest to lay this very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Yariel Rodriguez (0-0, 2.35 ERA) gets the call for Toronto. In my opinion he looks poised for regression. The Royals counter with the red hot Alec Marsh (3-0, 3.22), who continues to show consistency at the start of the season here. Toronto is once again getting too much respect from the oddsmakers in my opinion. The outright is possible, but the official call is to grab KC on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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04-23-24 | Mavs v. Clippers OVER 216.5 | Top | 96-93 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Mavs/Clippers. I had a play on the "over" in Game 1, and that came up short. It was because the Mavericks' offense looked terrible in the first half, only scoring eight points in the second quarter. The Mavs though scored 34 and 33 points in the third and fourth quarters respectively, and that's the offense that I'm expecting to show up here tonight. The Clippers looked great though and there's no reason not to think the offense won't be firing on all cylinders again, especially with the expected return of Kawhi. But whether he plays or not, in my opinion all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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04-23-24 | Orioles -149 v. Angels | 4-7 | Loss | -149 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Orioles. I'm contrarian by nature, but I don't always follow that rule or methodology for every single play. The public is heavily on Baltimore here, and rightfully so in my opinion. These two teams are heading in opposite directions, and Baltimore has the clear starting pitching advantage, with Grayson Rodriguez (3-0, 2.63 ERA) getting the call for the Orioles, and Griffin Canning (0-3, 8.05) countering for the Angels. Baltimore has control of the AL East now and I'm expecting it to keep the foot on the gas for at least one more game here. Great overall value, the play is BALTIMORE. Good luck, NP |
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04-23-24 | Lightning +1.5 v. Panthers | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP-SHELF DESTROYER on the Lightning. Florida won the first game of this series by a score of 3-2. Tampa needed a late power play goal to get it within one goal, and Florida wasn't able to put in the empty-netter with only a minute remaining. Suffice it to say, I'm expecting another "nail-biter" here as well. Tampa's responded well in this spot for bettors as well by going 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent. I think Florida does enjoy a home ice advantage, but this line is now way out of whack, with the majority of the general betting public quick to back the home side and lay the price. But in a game that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. The play is TAMPA on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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04-22-24 | Lakers v. Nuggets OVER 223.5 | 99-101 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the OVER Lakers/Nuggets. Game 1 went UNDER the number in the Nuggets 114-103 victory. Note though that LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. LA lost to Denver in the Playoffs last year as well, as this is just a difficult matchup for the Lakers as far as depth is concerned. Either way, all the work that Lebron and company have put in to get this point is once again on the line, as clearly an 0-2 hole will be difficult to climb out of. I anticipate LA pushing the pace of this one from start to finish. While Game 1 was a very defensive affair in the end, all signs point to a much more wide-open shootout this time around. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-22-24 | Islanders v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 105 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Isles/Canes. The Isles lost 3-1 in the opener and they'll look to bounce back here and respond. Note that New York has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to one or fewer goals in. Carolina is going to be able to find the back of the net as well once again here facing this Islanders team that will be committed to pushing the pace throughout in an attempt to avoid the dreaded 0-2 hole. New York was tied 1-1 with Carolina heading into the third, so it was competitive overall. The Isles had 34 shots on net in Game 1, and I expect that to translate into offensive production here in Game 2 as well. Either way, I think this number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-22-24 | Magic +5.5 v. Cavs | 86-96 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Magic. Orlando will be risking life and limb to avoid the 0-2 hole. Will that be enough to win this game outright? Maybe. But I do think that this one will go right down to the wire, so I'll be grabbing the points. Cleveland took Game 1 97-83, but note that the Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent in which they were held to 95 or fewer points in. Orlando shot poorly in Game 1, but I don't see that major discrepancy happening again. With the jitters out of the way, look for ORLANDO to, at the very least, keep this one interesting until the final moments. Grab the points, the play is ORLANDO. Good luck, NP |
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04-22-24 | Magic v. Cavs OVER 202.5 | 86-96 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Magic/Cavs OVER. Game 1 went WELL under the number in the Cavaliers 97-83 win. Note though that the Magic have seen the total go OVER in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss in which it was held to 95 or fewer points in. This pick is part of a three-game report, and I also have a pick on the Magic. I anticipate Orlando to be much more efficient shooting the ball this time around. They just couldn't get anything to drop last time out. Cleveland isn't great defensively and I'm expecting a faster pace overall than what we saw in Game 1. This can still be a low-scoring overall game and easily eclipse this super low O/U line and that's exactly what I'm expecting as well. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-22-24 | Brewers v. Pirates -133 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
This is 10* NL BOB on the Pirates. After back-to-back series losses going 0-6, I think Pittsburgh will bounce back and find a way to win the opener of this one vs. the Brewers. Milwaukee now looks primed for a letdown after four straight wins, including three straight at St. Louis over the weekend. The Brewers go with Joe Ross (1-1, 4.91 ERA), who was shelled for seven runs off nine hits over four innings a loss to the Padres on Monday. The home side counters with Jared Jones (1-2, 3.13), who allowed just one hit over five scoreless in an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Mets last time out. Great value here on PITTSBURGH for a number of different reasons. Good luck, NP |
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04-21-24 | Predators +129 v. Canucks | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Predators. Nashville finished with 269 total goals, while Vancouver had 277. Nashville goaltender Juuse Saros finished with a 2.86 GAA, while Vancouver netminder Thatcher Demko had a 2.45 GAA. The Predators' top line with Filip Forsberg, Ryan O'Reilly, and Gustav Nyquist is dangerous and Saros has the ability to steal a game himself. I say that comes here now in Game 1. The play is NASHVILLE. Good luck, NP |
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04-21-24 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Padres | 3-6 | Loss | -180 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE BLOWOUT on the Jays. I love betting against really hot teams, and I love betting on really cold teams. Or at least, I like predicting when a hot streak will end, or when a cold streak will end. Rarely do I ever try to ride a hot streak, or go against a cold team, but in this case I believe it's warranted to back the Jays again here to keep the good times rolling. This time though I will in fact also lay the chalk for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Toronto goes with Chris Bassitt (2-2, 4.03 ERA), while San Diego counters with Joe Musgrove (2-2, 6.29.) Bassitt is coming off a commanding performance vs. the Yanks, allowing one run over 6.1 innings while striking out five. Musgrove conceded three runs with four walks over six innings in a victory over the Brewers in his last outing. These line-ups and bullpens are the differene-maker as well for me, as Toronto has the upper-hand in every metric in those departments as well right now. Long story short, the play is TORONTO on the RUN-LINE option. Good luck, NP |
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04-21-24 | Mavs v. Clippers OVER 222.5 | Top | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Mavericks/Clippers. Dallas will look to push the pace here and steal the home-court advantage from the Clippers in my estimation. LA won the regular season series 2-1. The Mavs average 117.9 PPG, while conceding 115.6, so Dallas will have to be efficient in this series to pull off the slight upset. LA averaged 115.6 PPG, while allowing 112.3. I look for each team to at least reach its seasonal offensive average here. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-20-24 | New York Red Bulls v. Los Angeles FC -130 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -130 | 32 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* MLS GOW on LA FC. Both teams usually are in the hunt at the end of the season for a playoff spot. LAFC is off a 2-2 draw with Portland, while LA FC is off a 0-0 draw with Chicago at home. Now on the road, I think the Red Bulls will once again have a difficult time here finding the back of the net. The last time they played here at the Banc of California Stadium, LA FC beat the Red Bulls 2-0 and I predict a similar final outcome. NEw York has averaged 1.30 goals per game over its last ten on the road, while LA FC has averaged 2.60 goals and conceded 1.10 in its last ten at home. The play is LA FC. Good luck, NP |
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04-20-24 | Lakers +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 103-114 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Lakers. To say the "revenge" factor comes into play here would be an understatement, as Denver has won eight straight in this series. But note that five of those games were decided in the final five minutes. LA though enters playing its best basketball of the season after winning 12 of its last 15. The Lakers are healthier than they've been in years and it's now or never. Will that be good enough to pull off the straight up upset?! Maybe! But in the end, I'm going to grab the points with the LAKERS here in Game 1. Good luck, NP |
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04-20-24 | Islanders v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Isles/Canes. I'm expecting a few pucks to find the back of the net in this opening game. Three of the four regular-season contests between these two clubs at PNC Arena have gone over the total. Carolina has the sixth ranked offense. New York scored four goals in three of its last four road games to close out the year. Expect a faster pace and for this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-20-24 | Mets +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP PLAY on the Mets RUNLINE. Two teams moving in opposite directions, and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Mets turn to Jose Butto (0-0, 0.75 ERA), who struck out nine over six scoreless in a win over the Royals on Sunday. Gavin Stone (1-1, 6.14) counters for the home side. He gave up two runs over six innings in a win over the Padres last time out, but he's been erratic. Look for NEW YORK to, at the very least, keep this one competitive late. The play is on the RUNLINE. Good luck, NP |
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04-20-24 | Brentford +115 v. Luton Town | Top | 5-1 | Win | 115 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL GOW on Brentford. Brentford is in 15th spot and hasn't lived up to expectations this season. It'll look to take out its frustrations this week vs. 18th place Luton Town. Brentford is off a confidence-building 2-0 win over Sheffield and I predict a similar outcome here as well. Luton is off a disheartening 5-1 loss to Manchestery City. Brentford has won six of the last seven vs. Luton Town in league competitions, and I don't expect that streak coming to an end here. Great value here on BRENTFORD. Good luck, NP |
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04-19-24 | Kings v. Pelicans OVER 210 | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Kings/Pels. With Zion Williamson out, CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram will now be forced to push the pace here to keep up with the Kings. Sacramento has a golden opportunity here to avenge five straight regular season losses to the Pels right here. None of the five head-to-head meetings this year came in under 211 points, and they in fact averaged 237.2 points per game. The Kings defense isn't that great. And the Pels are going to be more stretched than ever. Expect a faster overall pace, and a more efficient game from each side than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe with what I feel to be a very low O/U line set for this one. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-19-24 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 205.5 | Top | 91-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Bulls/Heat. I'm expecting a very defensive battle here between the Bulls and Heat in this Final Play in contest. Last year the Bulls lost to Miami in the Play In, so they're out for revenge. Both teams though are moving on without their best offensive players. The Bulls were already without Zach Lavine, but Miami lost Jimmy Butler in the first half of the Bulls' win over the Hawks. With each team doubling down defensively here like I suspect, everything does definitely point to a lower-scoring defensive battle, so the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-19-24 | Astros v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOB on the OVER Astros/Nats. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm finally predicting some runs to be plated here tonight in the Nation's capital. The Astros are 6-14, including just 2-5 on the road. A big reason behind their poor start this year has been because their starting rotation started off the season with several injuries, including to ace Justin Verlander. Verlander though is back and ready to make his first start. Houston has only managed to score seven runs over its last 29 innings, so the visitors are obviously looking for a turnaround at the plate this week. Verlander is 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA in four career starts vs. Washington, but the Nationals are playing well right now and that was then and this is now. Verlander, despite being given the green light here in his first start, will be limited somewhat. the home side counters with MacKenzie Gore (2-0, 2.81 ERA), who is off five shutout frames over Oakland last time out. Gore has looked good early, but regression feels/seems imminent in my opinion. Ultimately I'm expectin gthese starters to get chased early and that'll help in pushing this total OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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04-18-24 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
This is s 10* RUNLINE BOOKIEKILLER on the D-Backs. Two teams that are under .500, but who are both 3-2 in their last five, will collide here looking to keep making strides in the positive direction. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurnace. Ryne Nelson (1-2, 5.27 ERA) gets the call for the D-Backs and he's coming off his best outing of the season so far, conceding one run over six innings, walking one and striking out four in the eventual 4-2 home win over St. Louis. I say he keeps that positive progression rolling here. He'll be opposed by Logan Webb (1-1, 3.80), who also comes in off a strong outing, allowing on run over seven innings in an 11-2 win at Tampa Bay. I just think that the Giants are really overpriced here, considering their inconsistent offensive ways. Seven of these teams last five games here in San Francisco have been decided by a single run. Lay the price, the play is ARIZONA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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04-17-24 | Hawks +3.5 v. Bulls | 116-131 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Hawks. ATL finished 36-36 and as the last seed in the East. All Star point guard Trae Young though is back and healthy for the playoffs. Experience counts at this time of year and Atlanta has a ton of it and Chicago has now, as note the Hawks are 3- in the Play-In Tournament in their history. ATL is fifth overall in scoring and has the potential to win this game outright. The Bulls finished 39-43, including just 20-21 at home. They've dealt with several injuries all year, including to star Zach Lavine, who is still out. Look for ATLANTA'S depth and experience to prove to be invaluable in this moment but, that said, make sure to grab as many points as you can. Good luck, NP |
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04-17-24 | Heat v. 76ers OVER 207.5 | 104-105 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the OVER Heat/76ers. Two really good coaches going head to head in this one and two pretty good teams as well. Regardless, while the oddsmakers have done their best to lead us to believe that this will be a lockdown defensive affair, I don't see it that way at all. In fact, all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later in my opinion. Nick Nurse and Eric Spoelstra have been here and done that. Now they just need to get the best out of their players. The two teams split the season series. Will home court advantage prove to be critical (read some of the other analysis contained inside this three-game report to find out!) These two teams can both play defense, but it's going to be the one that plays the most efficiently on the offensive end that comes out on top. With each team pushing the pace like I anticipate, all signs do indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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04-17-24 | Heat v. 76ers -200 | 104-105 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the 76ers moneyline FIRST HALF (it's also a play on the 76ers for the GAME ATS, if no FIRST HALF line available.)Â If you can get a FIRST HALF line, I think Philly on the moneyline is worth the price of admission here. That said, if you can't, then I also like Philadelphia ATS for the entire game. As mentioned on my play on the OVER in the same game, these are two really well-coached teams. But having Joel Embiid back is a big difference-maker for Philly. The 76ers are built to slow down Heat star Jimmy Butler as well. I'm expecting a rout, the play is PHILADELPHIA. Good luck, NP |
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04-17-24 | Rockies v. Phillies OVER 8 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Rockies/Phillies. Both sides have been involved in several lower-scoring games to open the season, including in the Phillies first two victories here in the series after yesterday's 5-0 shutout win. Colorado has now lost four in a row. It's now seen the total go "under" in five straight, but note that the Rockies have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their alst five after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Ryan Feltner is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA for the Rockies, while Cristopher Sanchez is 0-2 with a 3.52 ERA for the Phillies. Colorado has struggled to plate runs, but after yesterday's shutout, today's starting matchup is more favorable. Look for this total to creep OVER the number as the game enters the latter frames. Good luck, NP |
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04-17-24 | Reds v. Mariners -128 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MONEY PLAY on the Mariners. I like the Mariners to complete the sweep here. The Reds have struggled against the "better" teams in the early going and I say that trend continues here in the finale of this Interleague contest. Seattle has rebounded from lost two of three from Chicago and I say that momentum continues here. Two really good starters going head-to-head here with Andrew Abbot (1-1, 2.60 ERA) getting the call for the visitors and Bryce Miller (2-1, 1.96) countering for the home side. I really like Abbott and would argue he's been the best overall in the rotation to this point, but Miller at this price at home is just too good to turn down in the end for me. Lay the price, the play is SEATTLE. Good luck, NP |
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04-16-24 | Warriors -140 v. Kings | 94-118 | Loss | -140 | 32 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Warriors moneyline. The Warriors took out the Kings in the first round last year. Golden State always gets the better of the Kings at this time of the season, and nothing will change here. Just like the Lakers pick, clearly the NBA wants Steph and company playing in these Playoffs as long as possible. Golden State came together down the stretch, and its experience can't be overlooked in this important Play-in contest. The play is GOLDEN STATE on the MONEYLINE. Good luck, NP |
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04-16-24 | Warriors v. Kings OVER 223.5 | 94-118 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Warriors/Kings OVER. To go along with my play on the Warriors, I'm also going to play the OVER in the same game. The last time these teams played, Sacramento won 134-133 at Golden State back in January, and note that the Warriors have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU home loss vs. an opponent. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-16-24 | Lakers -105 v. Pelicans | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Lakers moneyline. The bottom line here is that I think that the NBA wants the Lakers playing as long as possible throughout the playoffs. I also expect Anthony Davis to play out of his mind here and to do whatever he has to do to get the better of his old team. Experience counts at this point as well. I really respect the Pels and think their time will come. But time has run out for Bron, and this is the final "kick of the can."Â The play is LA on the MONEYLINE. Good luck, NP |
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04-16-24 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL EAST GOM on the Jays runline. I think that laying what I deem to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance is where the value lies with this pick. Toronto won 3-1 here in yesterday's series opener and it's now won three straight. New York is now trending in the other direciton after two straight losses. I say those trends continue here for at least one more day as well. Two really good starters going head-to-head here with Carlos Rodon (1-0, 2.87 ERA) and Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 2.30 ERA.) Kikuchi this price at home though is just too good to turn down, despite the opponent. Look for TORONTO to punch its second straight win in this important early divisional series. Good luck, NP |
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04-15-24 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL TOW on the OVER Cubs/D-Backs. Arizona took two of three from St. Louis here over the weekend. It's seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five after yesterday's 5-0 win over the Cards. Note though that Arizona has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten off a shutout home win. The Cubs saw all three games go UNDER in Seattle over the weekend, but note that Chicago has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Ben Brown (0-0, 6.10 ERA) goes for the Cubs, while the D-Backs counter with Merrill Kelly (2-0, 2.29.) The overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends though all do indeed point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later in my opinion. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-15-24 | Predators v. Penguins -121 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF GOM on the Penguins. I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on Pittsburgh. The Predators are already locked into their playoff spot, and this is their final game. They'll simply "go through the motions" here. Pittsburgh not only needs to win its final two games of the regular season, but it also needs some outside help. The Pens play with the added incentive of revenge here as well after falling 3-2 at Nashville at the start of the season. I just don't see Nashville putting up a fight at all here. In fact, the exact opposite. It'll just be hoping to sustain no major injuries as it prepares for the Playoffs. No such luxury for the Pens obviously, who have to do whatever it takes to win this game, and the next one. All things considered, a great situational play here on PITTSBURGH. Good luck, NP |
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04-14-24 | Cubs v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Cubs/Mariners. Both sides have been playing to several lower-scoring affairs of late, but I'm finally expecting more of a slug-fest here in this afternoon interleague matchup from what will be a sunny day in the PNW. This is the rubber-match between the teams and I'm expecting some offensive fireworks. Chicago hands the ball to Javier Assad (1-0, 1.64 ERA), while the home side counters with Luis Castillo (0-3, 6.89.)Â Assad is primed for regression in my opinion, while at the same time, it's hard for me to see Castillo just "flipping a switch" and correcting all of his problems. The Mariners have now seen the total dip below the number in five straight, but that's signficiant for us to take note of as Seattle has in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. This number is indeed a bit low, so the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-14-24 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Avs/Knights. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games down the stretch, but everything points to a tighter defensive affair here in this one in my opinion. Colorado has its first round opponent locked in now and will use the final two games of the regular season to fine tune a few things. Las Vegas is caught in a playoff battle right now between several teams, but regardless note that eight of last ten between these clubs have gone UNDER the number. Both teams have seen the total go OVER in five straight, but I say this one here on Sunday afternoon will stay well UNDER once the final horn blares. Good luck, NP |
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04-14-24 | Bucks +5 v. Magic | Top | 88-113 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Bucks. It's a big game for both teams with playoff implications on the line. Both teams are really struggling as well, but despite not having Giannis Antetokounmpo on the court, I like the Bucks to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire in a competitive battle and to earn the comfortable cover with the handful of points that they've been afforded. Even without the Greek Freak, the correct call is still the Bucks. We just saw Milwaukee beat the Magic by 18 points without Giannis earlier this week. Orlando has dropped three straight games and its inexperience at this time of year will be its undoing. While I do think an outright is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The play is MILWAUKEE. Good luck, NP |
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04-13-24 | Max Holloway v. Justin Gaethje +130 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 58 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* UFC GOM on Justin Gaethje. The symbolic BMF title is on the line here between these two slugging veterans, but in my opinion "The Highlight" will prove to be just too much for Max Holloway in this one. Holloway is a shell of his former self, having been hit with 1,335 significant strikes to the head across 28 UFC fights. That doesn't bode well facing Justin Gaethje, as Holloway has to move up in weight class to make this fight and "The Highlight" has 10 KO's in his last 12 victories. Gaethje is off a huge head-kick KO of Dustin Poirier and Holloway is going to get cut down like a tree here by his opponents deadly leg kicks as well. All in all, I believe this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Lay the price, the play is JUSTIN GAETHJE. Good luck, NP |
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04-13-24 | Cubs v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Cubs/Mariners. I had a play on the Mariners last night and that was an easy cash in Seattle's eventual 4-2 victory. Seattle has now won two straight and it's seen the total go UNDER in four straight. Chicago has been trading high-scoring games with lower-scoring ones over its last five contests and I expect this pattern to continue here tonight in the PNW. The Cubs go with Shota Imanaga (1-0, 0.00 ERA), who went four scoreless in a no-decision vs. the Padres in his last outing. After ten scoreless and 12 K's to open the season, regression is imminent in my opinion. And the Mariners counter with Emerson Hancock, who is 1-1 with an 11.42 ERA. Clearly Hancock can only go one way with his performance as well, but I don't see him just "flipping a switch" and correcting all of his issues right away. Either way, I'm expecting these starters to get chased early and because of that we can also look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-13-24 | Luton Town v. Manchester City UNDER 4 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -130 | 44 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL TOM on the UNDER Luton/Man City. Manchester City is off a 3-3 high-scoring draw with Real Madrid in Champions League action on Tuesday. It hammered Luton Town on its own field 6-2 in the FA Cup two months ago. While Man City has been playing to several higher-scoring affairs of late, I'm anticipating the home side to go up early, before then just locking down Luton. Man City won 2-1 at Luton back in December in the reverse fixture, and I anticipate an even lower-scoring affair here. Luton is off a rare 2-1 win as a +285 dog over Bournemouth, but previous to that it scored a total of just two goals over its previous three games. Luton has stuggled on the road all season, and I have a hard time seeing the visitors doing anything offensively this weekend. This O/U number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-12-24 | Cubs v. Mariners -120 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Mariners. Seattle got a much-needed 6-1 win at Toronto last night to finish 2-4 on its road trip between Milwaukee and the Jays. Now I think they keep that momentum rolling here at home vs. the Cubs, who lost 10-2 at San Diego last night. The Mariners' players were pumped after that victory and I think they'll keep it rolling here at home in this favorable matchup on the mound. Jordan Wicks (0-1, 4.15 ERA) gets the call for the Cubs, while Bryce Miller (1-1, 3.00) counters for the home side. Wicks hasn't made it out of the fifth inning in either of his first two starts this year and has looked shaky overall, while Miller beat Milwaukee 5-3 on Saturday, going seven scoreless, allowing three hits and striking out seven and walking just one. All things considered, I feel this to be the very defintion of "great line value." Lay the short price on the MARINERS. Good luck, NP |
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04-11-24 | Astros v. Royals +1.5 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
This is 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Royals RUNLINE. I think we're getting great value on the home side on the runline option. Why are the Astros favored here? Because the public likes them more? Because they're just 4-9 and the Royals are 8-4. Hunter Brown is 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA and 2.57 WHIP for Houston, while Brady Singer is 1-0 with a 0.68 ERA and 0.53 WHIP for the Royals. KC has won the first two games of this series, including yesterday by a score of 11-2. Will the Royals take the foot off the gas, or have mercy? Can the Astros flip a switch and start dominating right now? I think the answer to both those questions is: "no!" Houston's big bats have struggled against Singer in the past as well. I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance with KANSAS CITY. Good luck, NP |
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04-10-24 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL WEST TOW on the UNDER A's/Rangers. Considering the current form of these two starters, I believe the correct call as far as the total is concerned is definitely on the UNDER. Oakland will turn to Ross Stripling, who so far is 0-2 with a 3.75 ERA. He's looked really solid so far in the early going for the Athletics though. Last time out he gave up just one run over seven innings, walked none and struck out in a loss to the Red Sox (Oakland's offense though was shutout in that one for the second time in the previous three games.) And that offense could definitely struggle again here on Wednesday facing Rangers' starter Cody Bradford, who is 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA and who also gave up just one run in his last start. With these two starters taking center stage like I suspect, look for this one to turn into a classic "duel" in Texas this evening. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-09-24 | Clippers v. Suns -7.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* BK on the Suns. This is the opener of a home and home set between the teams, and I think the Suns will risk life and limb here to secure the home victory. Phoenix had its three game win streak snapped last time out in a 113-105 home setback to New Orleans. But with its final three games on the road, this becomes a very important game for the SUNS. Good luck, NP |
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04-09-24 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -108 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is 10* AL BOOKIEKILLER on the Jays. I like the Jays to build off their 5-2 series opening win here. Both teams have been struggling, and both of these starters have so far struggled. But each team, and each starter is better than what these early results have shown. Seattle goes with George Kirby (1-1, 5.23 ERA0, while the Jays counter with Chris Bassitt (0-2, 7.71.) Look for the big bats of TORONTO to give Bassitt some support today and for TORONTO to find a way to get the job done once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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04-09-24 | Hurricanes v. Bruins +103 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BK on the Bruins. Boston lost in the first round last year. It'll be out to make sure that doesn't happen this season. And going into the Playoffs on a high note is the best way to do that. The Bruins just beat the Hurricanes in Carolina last week, and I anticipate a similar outcome here as well now that they're back on home ice. Boston hits the road for two straight after this, so expect it to double down and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The play is the BRUINS. Good luck, NP |
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04-08-24 | Cubs v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL TOW on the OVER Cubs/Padres. The Padres have seen the total go UNDER in five straight. They've been trading wins/losses over their last five games and will be eager to bounce back here after going just 1-2 at San Francisco over the weekend. The Cubs though are 6-3 overall and they just took two of three from the Dodgers at home. Chicago has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five and I'm expecting the Cubs to keep that offensive momentum rolling here, despite facing Yu Darvish (0-1, 2.30 ERA). The visitors counter with Javier Assad (1-0, 0.00), who looked great in his debut vs. the lowly Rockies, but who I think will now struggle in this difficult away venue. This number is a little low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut OVER 145.5 | Top | 60-75 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* CBB TOM on the OVER Purdue/UConn. UConn has so far seen every game its played in during this tournament go UNDER the number, and I believe that this O/U line is now a bit TOO low. Note as well that the Huskies have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten after after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Purdue has seen its last three go UNDER the number, but note that the Boilermakers have also seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. The two best teams in the country going head-to-head here and in my opinion, this one has "shootout" written ALL over it. Good luck, NP |
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04-07-24 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* WEST-CONF NON-DIV GOM on the Pelicans. The Pelicans have lost four straight, but despite who gets the start here today, I definitely am expecting New Orleans to put up a fight and go down hard trying. Most recently it was a 111-109 loss to San Antonio. Note that the Pels are 7-3 ATS in their last ten off a SU/ATS home loss in which they were a double-digit favorite though. They play with revenge as well after a 124-111 home loss to the Suns at the start of the month. That was the first win of three straight now for Phoenix, but note that the Suns are a sub-par 1-4 ATS in their last five after three or more SU victories in a row. Grab the points, thep lay is NEW ORLEANS. Good luck, NP |
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04-07-24 | Senators v. Capitals -130 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION GAME OF MONTH on the Capitals. Despite an untimely five-game losing streak, the Capitals still have an opportunity to earn the eighth spot in the East with four teams within a game of each other or tied. Note that Washington is 6-2 in its last eight after five or more losses in a row. Ottawa can only play spoiler. It failed to do that in yesterday's 4-3 home loss to New Jersey. I say the Sens come in with "heavy legs" and just go through the motions here vs. this desperate home side. All things considered, I believe this to be the very defintion of "great line value." The play is WASHINGTON. Good luck, NP |
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04-07-24 | Padres v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL WEST TOM on the OVER Padres/Giants. These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating more of a slugfest finally here on Sunday afternoon between these division rivals. San Diego goes with Matt Waldron (0-1, 9.00 ERA), while the home side coutners with Logan Webb (0-1, 6.52.)Â Both looked shaky in their openers, and I believe that'll be the difference here for these talented hitting line-ups, which I expect will take advantage throughout the night early and often as far as production at the plate. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-06-24 | Alabama v. Connecticut -11.5 | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 30 h 52 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on UConn. The Crimson Tide have exceeded expectations. They lost four of their final six games before the Tournament started, but here they are in the Final Four, and according to KenPom they've faced the toughest schedule so far in the Tournament. Bama can score with the best of them, averaging 90.8 PPG, but overall the Crimson Tide are ranked just 105th in defensive efficiency. The tourney defending champs on the other hand are ranked 1st in offensive efficiency and 4th in defensive efficiency in the country. So far the Huskies are 4-0 ATS in this tournament, and with their ultimate goal now in sight, I expect them to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points, the play is UCONN. Good luck, NP |
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04-06-24 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL EAST TOM on the OVER Jays/Yanks. I had a play on Toronto on the runline yesterday and I did not need the extra 1.5 runs in the Jays outright 3-0 victory. While that game went well UNDER the number, I'm expecting a much more wide-open "slug-fest" here on Saturday night, despite whoever gets the start for either side. This play is "action," meaning that whoever gets the start tonight, this play will still be valid. Kevin Gausman (0-0, 2.08 ERA) is scheduled to get the start fot the Jays, while Clarke Schmidt (0-0, 5.06 ERA) counters for the home side. Schmidt gave up three runs off seven hits to the Astros last weekend. He's in the rotation out of necessity with the injury to Gerrit Cole. Gausman has picked up right where he left off last season, but I'm still expecting the Yanks, who have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent, will plate some runs after getting shutout yesterday. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-06-24 | NC State v. Purdue -9 | 50-63 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Purdue. With the majority of the public riding the Cinderella Wolfpack here, I'm going the other way. This is the first time that NC State has been in the Final 4 since 1983. The Boilermakers have won a school record 33 games this year and I think their deep and veteran team will pull away comfortably for the win here, and have NC State playing from behind from start to finish. So far the Wolfpack is averaging 75.5 PPG in this tourney, and conceding 65.5, while the Boilermakers are averaging 84 PPG, while holding teams to just 62.8. These two teams are on different levels and I don't see Purdue allowing the Wolfpack to dictate the pace of this one. I expect a wide-open shootout, but one that Purdue pulls away for both the blowout win and comfortable cover at the same time. Lay the points, the play is indeed on PURDUE. Good luck, NP |
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04-06-24 | NC State v. Purdue OVER 146.5 | 50-63 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the OVER NC State/Purdue. With the majority of the public riding the Cinderella Wolfpack here, I'm going the other way. This is the first time that NC State has been in the Final 4 since 1983. The Boilermakers have won a school record 33 games this year and I think their deep and veteran team will pull away comfortably for the win here, and have NC State playing from behind from start to finish. So far the Wolfpack is averaging 75.5 PPG in this tourney, and conceding 65.5, while the Boilermakers are averaging 84 PPG, while holding teams to just 62.8. These two teams are on different levels and I don't see Purdue allowing the Wolfpack to dictate the pace of this one. I expect a wide-open shootout, but one that Purdue pulls away for both the blowout win and comfortable cover at the same time. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-06-24 | Brentford v. Aston Villa -140 | Top | 3-3 | Loss | -140 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL GOW on Aston Villa. I think considering a few different factors, that we are in fact getting great value here on Aston Villa at this price at home to win in regulation. Brentford is currently in 15th place in the EPL and only managed a 0-0 draw with Brighton and Hove Albion last weekend. Aston Villa is in fourth place, but it won't be lacking motivation here after slumping to a 4-1 defeat to Manchester City in its last game. Brentford has yet to win a league away game here and I don't see that happening this weekend vs. this now hungry home side. Lay the price for ASTON VILLA in regulation. Good luck, NP |
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04-05-24 | Mariners v. Brewers -120 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* BK on the Brewers. After seven home games, Seattle is now 3-4. That includes back-to-back losses at home to Cleveland, which includes an 8-0 loss on Wednesday. Now the Mariners hit the road for two straight tough Eastern series, starting here in Milwaukee and ending North of the border. I smell a letdown here in the opener. Two really good starters going head-to-head, with Seattle going with Logan Gilbert (0-0, 1.29 ERA), while the home side counters with Freddy Peralta (1-0, 1.50.) This is the start of 13 straight game days in a row, so I look for the home side to get things kicked off on the "right foot." Seattle only has four home runs so far as a team and is struggling in many metrics on both sides of the ball. Not so for Milwaukee, who has gotten great production out of its rotation and line-up as well in the early going. Gilbert's great, but give me Peralta at home at this price. The play is MILWAUKEE. Good luck, NP |
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04-05-24 | Heat v. Rockets UNDER 215 | Top | 119-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOB on the UNDER Heat/Rockets. Both teams are fighting for a spot and each has been involved in several higher-scoring games of late. This time though, I'm expecting a very defensive battle. At the start of the year, totals were regularly in the 240's. Now we're seeing some dip as low as 202 etc. Regardless, this one sets up nicely to for a lower-scoring war in my opinion. Miami had its three-game win streak snapped in last night's 109-105 loss at home to Philly, so fatigue will be a factor for the Heat, who already play at a really slow pace. Houston plays with revenge after a 120-113 loss at Miami back in January, and note that the Rockets have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-05-24 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Yankees | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* VALUE PLAY on the Blue Jays RUNLINE. The Yankees return home for their first game of the season in the Bronx, and I think they're going to fall flat here against their hungry division rival. That said, at this price, I can't turn down the extra 1.5 runs. Toronto is only hitting .176 over its first seven games, and this line-up is just too talented to be held down too much longer. "We have a really talented group," Jays' manager John Schneider said. "We have all the confidence in the world they're going to hit. It's a tough series. You don't want to make any knee-jerk reactions. These guys are professionals, and they're going to be ready on Friday." Toronto faces Marcus Stroman (1-0, 0.00 ERA), who allowed three unearned runs off four hits over six innings in New York's 5-3 win at Houston. The Jays counter with lefty Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 6.23), who conceded three runs over 4 1/3's innings in a loss to the Rays last weekend. Overall though he's 4-3 with a 3.57 ERA in 12 career appearances vs. the Yanks though. This is going to be a great series and I'm expecting a competitve game out of TORONTO on Friday afternoon. Good luck, NP |
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04-04-24 | Blues +1.5 v. Predators | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -170 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* CENTRAL DIV. GOY on the Blues PUCKLINE. At this time of year, we just have to look at the standings to judge motivation levels. Which will admittedly be high for both of these division rivals on Thursday night. That said, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to suggest laying the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. You may want to sprinkle a little on the moneyline as well here, as I love the way this one sets up from the Blues situationally speaking. St. Louis sits in ninth spot with 84 points, three points behind the Kings for eighth spot and six points behind the Predators for seventh. St. Louis is 40-31. It's coming off a 3-2 OT win here at home over Edmonton. The Blues didn't need the 1.5 goals vs. the Oilers, but they sure very well could here vs. the Predators in my estimation. They also play with revenge after the club's most recent matchup, a 5-2 win for Nashville in St. Louis in mid-February. The Preds come in playing terribly as well, off three straight losses, getting outscored 18-8 in the process. And with two tough upcoming games a the Islanders and Devils on back-to-back nights after this, this is also a look-ahead spot for the home side. I say St. Louis has a legit shot at winning outright, but feel much more comfortable in fact laying the price for the visitors on the puckline option. The play is the BLUES. Good luck, NP |
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04-04-24 | Indiana State v. Seton Hall UNDER 159 | Top | 77-79 | Win | 100 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* NIT TOTAL BK on the UNDER. It's the top two seeds going head-to-head here in the NIT Championship Game and instead of trying to figure out who is actually going to win/cover, I'm instead going to focus on the total. And for me, the old saying that "defense wins championships," couldn't be more apt here in my opinion. These are two great offensive teams, but the one that can step up and play better defensively is going to be the one that comes out on top. The Pirates did look good defensively though in their most recent 84-67 victory over Georgia. Indiana State just beat Utah 100-90, and it's seen the total go OVER in two straight now in the tournament. But the general betting public is now quick to hammer the OVER whenver the Sycamores and Larry Blur hit the court. While the majority go one way with this total, I'm going the other. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-04-24 | Guardians v. Twins -143 | 4-2 | Loss | -143 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Twins. Cleveland is 4-2 so far after beating the Mariners in Seattle 8-0 last night, but I believe the visitors will finally stumble here against the 3-2 Twins, who play at home for the first time this year. Tanner Bibee (0-0, 6.75 ERA) gets the call for the Guardians, and he allowed a career-high five walks and three runs off six hits over four innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the lowly A's last weekend. He's 0-0 with a 4.20 ERA in three career starts vs. Minnesota. The Twins counter with Pablo Lopez (1-0, 1.29), who gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in a 4-1 win over a scrappy Royals side. Look for Lopez to ride the wave of emotion in front of the home town crowd and for him to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price, the play is MINNESOTA. Good luck, NP |
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04-03-24 | Cavs v. Suns UNDER 226.5 | Top | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the UNDER Cavs/Suns. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one now points to this non-conference contest being a lot more of a defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Cleveland has seen the total go OVER in six straight after last night's 129-112 win at Utah. With two whole nights off after this before a game at the Lakers, we feel fatigue will be an issue here for the visitors in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Phoenix returns home after a three-game road trip, and I believe that the Suns will have "heavy legs" here as well. I'm anticipating a very defensive affair here, so the play is indeed on the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-03-24 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -159 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* RL BK on the Jays. I had a play on the Jays on the runline yesterday, and didn't even need the 1.5 runs of insurance. I may not need it today either. Either way, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price again for Toronto on the runline option. I'm not overreacting to Chris Bassitt's (0-1, 7.20 ERA) start in Tampa for the Jays. He gave up a grand slam is what did the damage. He had a great spring though. He's susceptible to giving up the long-ball, but he catches the Astros at the "right time."Â Houston turns to Christian Javier, who went six shutout innings in a no-decision vs. the Yanks in his opener. He only forced eight whiffs though. I'll caution in backing Javier to quickly, as he posted a very pedestrian 4.56 ERA last year. For all the reasons listed above, the play is TORONTO on the runline option. Good luck, NP |
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04-03-24 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks +100 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* IL GOM on the D-Backs. A great situational play. Honestly, it wouldn't be too hard to write a convincing argument for either side to win. That said, Carlos Rodon is coming off a shaky season last year and while he had a decent opening start this year, I say the book is still out on him. Merril Kelly though is arguably the best pitcher in all of MLB and here he is essentially even money at home, facing a Yanks team that JUST lost its first game of the year. I've found in the past that teams that are on long win streaks that finally lose that first game, the next game after that tends to be a BIG letdown spot. The bottom line here is that I believe the general betting public is quick to back the Yanks, and not remembering that the D-Backs were in the World Series last year. The play is ARIZONA. Good luck, NP |
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04-02-24 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -125 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* IL TOM on the OVER Yanks/D-Backs. The Yanks are 5-0 after last night's 5-2 series opening win here. All five game have gone UNDER the number. Note though that New York has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. It's a new season, but it's still worth noting in my opinion. Arizona saw its first three games go OVER the number, but the last two have now gone UNDER. We have two decent starters going head-to-head, but I'm still anticipating a slug-fest between Nestor Cortes Jr. for the Yanks and Zac Gallen for the D-Backs. Cortes Jr. is 0-0 with a 7.20 ERA and Gallen is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA. But the overall situation, combined with the above listed trend makes the OVER the correct call this time around as far as the total is concerned in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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04-02-24 | Georgia v. Seton Hall UNDER 145.5 | Top | 67-84 | Loss | -108 | 55 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Georgia/Seton Hall. The NIT shifts to MSG and I'm expecting much more of a defensive affair here between these two teams than what the oddsmakers are trying to leads us to believe. Seton Hall averages 73.3 PPG, and Georgia concedes 73.3. The Pirates allow only 69.8, while the Bulldogs average 74.9. This game is going to be tight from start to finish, but look for the longer lay off to give these teams their "legs" back, and for that to benefit the defensive end. I say this one falls UNDER once the final horn sounds. Good luck, NP |
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04-02-24 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* RL BK on the Jays. The Astros finally won a game and are now 1-4. The Jays are now 2-3 after falling 10-0 and getting the seasons first "no hitter" put on them. But now Toronto will look to respond and at this price, I think for sure the value lies with the visitors on the RUNLINE option. Jose Berrios is already 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP for Toronto, while Framber Valdez is 0-0 with a 5.79 ERA and 2.36 WHIP for the Astros. I'm laying the price for TORONTO on the RUNLINE today. Good luck, NP |
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04-02-24 | Thunder v. 76ers UNDER 225.5 | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOW on the UNDER Thunder/76ers. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much tighter affair here on Tuesday finally. OKC is coming off back-to-back victories. It's seen the total go OVER in five straight after its most recent 113-112 road win at New York, but that's significant to take note of, as the Thunder have in fact seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Philly just snapped a three-game slide with a big 135-120 road win North of the border and it's seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that the 76ers have in fact seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. I think these teams are fatigued, and that's going to translate into this particular contest being much more defense-oriented than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-02-24 | Everton v. Newcastle United -102 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL GOM on Newcastle. Everton has lost three straight, and it's winless in its last 13 Premier League games. I think it'll have a difficult time here on Tuesday afternoon vs. this rejuvenated Newcastle side, which came from behind to beat West Ham United last weekend. Newcastle came from two goals down to stun their opponent, and I see a "carry over of momentum" here for sure. Newcastle also plays with revenge after losing 3-0 at Everton in the reverse fixture in December. Everton is struggling to score though, and it's struggling to defend, and facing this revenge-minded Newcastle side that just scored three unanswered goals in an epic victory on the road is NOT what the doctor ordered for the Toffees whatsoever. I say this is the very definition of "great line value." The play is NEWCASTLE. Good luck, NP |
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04-01-24 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL WEST TOM on the UNDER Giants/Dodgers. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to open the season, but I'm anticipating a "duel" here finally on Monday night between these divisional opponents. San Francisco goes with Keaton Winn, who looked sharp in his final Spring tune-up, going five innings and striking out five. The home side counters with James Paxton, who gave up just one run off two hits and who owns a 7:2 K:BB over four Spring innings. Look for these two capable starters to take center stage and for this total to fall UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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04-01-24 | Kings v. Jets -117 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Jets. LA is on a two-game losing streak, heading in the opposite direction at the wrong time. Winnipeg though has been trending in the wrong direction for a while now, as it comes in off six straight losses. It's now do or die for the Jets in a sense as they look to stop the bleeding. It's been a tough four-game swing for the Kings, who return home to play Seattle, followed by the Sharks. I say they get caught "looking ahead" here. Winnipeg's schedule doesn't get any easier after this. And so at this price and considering all of the above situational/motivation factors now working for Winnipeg, I'm banking on the Jets taking off and delivering the goods at home. Lay the price, the play is indeed on WINNIPEG. Good luck, NP |
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04-01-24 | Blue Jays v. Astros -137 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on the Astros. Two hopeful starters going head to head here. Two really talented line-ups. Honestly it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either side to win here, but the difference for me is that Houston is winless so far after going 0-4 here to the Yankees to open the season. They uncharacteristically left 34 baserunners stranded, while also going 8 for 41 with runners in scoring position. Look for the now desperate home side to risk life and limb to secure the victory here in what I feel is a great price. The play is HOUSTON. Good luck, NP |
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03-31-24 | Jazz v. Kings OVER 222.5 | Top | 106-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Jazz/Kings. These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but everything points to much more of a high-scoring "shootout" here in my opinion finally on Sunday. Utah is trying to snap an eight game slide. It plays with revenge here after a 125-104 loss to the Kings here back on December 16th, ando note that the Jazz have in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. Sacramento lost two straight to the Mavericks and their offense stalled. The Kings have seen the total go UNDER in six straight now, but that fact has only helped in driving today's O/U line a bit lower than it normally would/should be as well in my opinion. With each team pushing the pace like I anticipate, all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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03-31-24 | NC State v. Duke -6.5 | Top | 76-64 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* ELITE 8 TOP SIDE on Duke. I've played on both these teams already in this tournament. However, I believe that the Wolfpack's Cinderella run is coming to an end finally. Duke averages 79 PPG, while conceding 66. NC State averages 76 PPG, while conceding 72.2. These teams split a pair of games this year, but Duke will now have a chance to avenge the quarterfinal loss in the Conference tournament game. Duke's an elite team that's had a couple huge "brain farts" this year. It's able to match up with anyone and it looked dominant defensively in its win over Houston. I don't see the Wolfpack beating the Blue Devils twice in two weeks. Duke was an 11.5-point favorite in the Conference Tournament, so is a huge overreaction now by the oddsmakers in trying to "lead" the general betting public?! I'm not buying it, and am instead laying the points here with revenge-minded DUKE. Good luck, NP |
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03-31-24 | Braves v. Phillies +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* RUNLINE BLOWOUT on the Phillies. I say Philadelphia stands up here and avoids the sweep. But at the very least, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras this time, I'm going to lay this very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Chris Sale made 20 starts last year for Boston and went 6-5 with a 4.30 ERA. He's 1-2 with a 5.00 ERA spanning three career starts vs. the PHillies. Ranger Suarez counters for the home side and in 16 total appearances vs. Atlanta, the team he's faced more than any other in his career, he's gone 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA. With Atlanta going to the Chicago White Sox for an interleague series, and with the Phillies getting ready for another tough series here tomorrow vs. the Reds, situationally I think it favors the home side as well. Lay the price for the 1.5 runs, the play is PHILADELPHIA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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03-30-24 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Rockies/D-Backs. Both games in this opening series have flown well OVER the number, but I'm finally expecting more of a "duel" here finally in the finale. The visitors hand the ball to Austin Gomber, who had a highly-respectable 3.68 ERA and 1.37 WHIP away from Coors Field last year. The home side counters with Tommy Henry, who pitched six scoreless innings on Monday in an exhibition vs. Cleveland. Look for these starters to "take center stage" so to speak in this one. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-30-24 | Illinois v. Connecticut OVER 154.5 | Top | 52-77 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Illinois/Connecticut. What more can be said about these two teams which hasn't been said a million times at this point. If you're betting on this game, you almost assuredly know all the cast of characters on each side, and the strengths and weaknesses of each side. Illinois averages 84.2 PPG, while allowing 73.2. UConn averages 81.6 PPG, while allowing 63.6. Coach Dan Hurley says, "We suck at winning close games, [so] you've got to go with the alternative." With the defending champs pushing the pace like I suspect, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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03-30-24 | Brewers v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL TOM on the OVER Brewers/Mets. After yesterday's lower-scoring contest, I'm expecting a bit more of a "slug-fest" here early on Saturday afternoon between the Brewers and the Mets. The visitors hand the ball to DL Hall, who looked decent in his last two spring tune-ups. Last year he was 1-0 with a 3.53 ERA on the road spanning nine games and 10.2 innings of work. Luis Severino looked good in Spring Training for the Mets, allowing one run over nine Grapefruit League innings. He had terrible numbers for the Yanks last year, and I'm not reading too much into his Spring performance. I think both of these starters enter with more questions than answers and I believe each will "get the hook" early. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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03-30-24 | Red Wings v. Panthers OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-CONF TOM on the OVER Wings/Panthers. I'm a situational capper, so I handicap the end of the season a little differently than I do the start of the season and through the bulk of the regular season. But for this one, I think it sets up well to be a high-scoring affair. At this time of year you have to look at the schedule to gauge motivation levels. If the playoffs were to start today the Wings would be on the outside looking in, they're in ninth spot, two games back of Washington. And that's because the Wings have lost three straight, they've been shutout twice in that time, including most recently 4-0 at Carolina. They also lost 4-0 at home to Florida on March 2nd and note that the Wings have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a shutout home loss vs. an opponent. Florida is second in the Atlantic at 46-22, but it won't be lacking for motivation here either after two straight home losses.. I think we'll see a wide-open shootout in this one, so I'm rolling with the OVER in this early game. Good luck, NP |
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03-30-24 | West Ham United v. Newcastle United -122 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL GOW on Newcastle. Newcastle went into the International break off a 3-2 loss at Chelsea, but it draws the perfect opponent to get untracked against here to open up the final stretch. These teams played to a 2-2 draw in the reverse-fixture back in October, but Newcastle is tough in this series at home. I'm banking on the home side collecting all three-points in regulation. Good luck, NP |
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03-29-24 | Mavs v. Kings OVER 230 | Top | 107-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Mavs/Kings. This total is a little low for a few different reasons in my opinion. Both sides have been involved in several lower-scoring affairs of late, including in their most recent matchup together just two nights ago here when Dallas won 132-96. That result though is very important for a few different reasons. The first being that Sacramento has seen the total go "over" the number eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 99 or fewer points in. And with the loss, Sacramento has now seen the total go UNDER in five straight, which is also significant for us to take note of, as the Kings have seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Dallas has won five straight now, and it's seen the total go UNDER in five straight, but note that the Mavs have also seen the total dip below the posted number in six of their last eight after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. With each team pushing the pace like I'm anticipating, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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03-29-24 | Duke v. Houston -3.5 | 54-51 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Houston. I had a play on Duke in its win over James Madison last time out, but I think the No. 4 Blue Devils will bow out here now vs. the No. 1 seed Houston. The Cougars survived an OT thriller with Texas A&M, and with that legendary game now under their belts, I think we'll see a much more efficient Houston side here. The Cougars are basck in the Sweet 16 for the fifth straight time and they're going to have a distinct home-court advantage here, as this South Region portion is being played in Dallas. Lay the points, the play is HOUSTON. Good luck, NP |
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03-29-24 | Gonzaga v. Purdue -5.5 | 68-80 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Purdue. Gonzaga beat McNeese and a banged-up Kansas side, but I say it's run in this year's Tourney comes to an end this weekend. Overall they average 85.6 PPG, while conceding 68.7. Purdue averages 84.2, while allowing 70.2. The Boilermakers have had a more difficult schedule, have been more consistent overall this season, and will have the best player on the floor in Zach Edey (24.5 points and 12.1 rebounds.) Lay the points, the play is PURDUE. Good luck, NP |
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