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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-30-18 | Northern Illinois +4 v. Buffalo | Top | 30-29 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup Northern Illinois (303) Northern Illinois (7 - 5) vs. Buffalo (10 - 2) Week 14 Friday, 11/30/2018 7:00 PM MAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Ford Field - Detroit, MI SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on Northern Illinois, who are priced as 3.5-point neutral field dog. Consider an optional alternative wager comprised of a 8-star play on the line and a 2-Star play using the money line to exploit the potential for SU upset win. The money line is currently at 150, which implies a 3:2return for the 2-Star portion for a grand total of 3-Stars or $300 for a $200 wager. Plus, the 8-Star line wager would win too and combining for a grand profit of $1,200. If they cover, but fails to win, then the total profit is $800, which is quite attractive given the ceiling at $1200 is 20% better than just the single $1000 10-Star line play. Not steering your thoughts in this combination direction as a straight 10-Star wager using the line is a smart play as well. SIM Projections and Results Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows: The SIM projections show that Northern Illinois will have less than 150 net passing yards. This reflects their success running the ball and the lack of need to throw the ball to the move the chains or to mount a comeback from a 2 or more scoring deficit. Buffalo is just 6-15 SU for 29% winners when allowing an opponent 150 or less net passing yards. NI is a solid 8-3 SU when gaining 150 or fewer net passing yards over the L2 seasons. Interesting too is the fact that Buffalo is 0-10 SU and just 3-7 ATS losing to the number by an average of 8.2 points when facing NI. NI is 40-19 against the money line (+21.2 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. |
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11-29-18 | Saints v. Cowboys +8 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 33 h 24 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup Dallas Cowboys (509) NEW ORLEANS (10 - 1) at DALLAS (6 - 5) Week 13 Thursday, 11/29/2018 8:20 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Cowboys, who are priced as 7.5-point road dogs. Consider an optional alternative wager comprised of a 8-star play on the line and a 2-Star play using the money line to exploit the potential for the Cowboys SU upset win. The money line is currently at 300, which implies a 3:1 return for the 2-Star portion for a grand total of 6-Stars or $600 for a $200 wager. Plus, the 8-Star line wager would win too and combining for a grand profit of $1,600. If Dallas covers and fails to win, then the total profit is $800, which is quite attractive given the ceiling at $1600 is twice that amount and 60% better than just the $1000 10-Star lione play. Not steering your thoughts in this direction as a straight 10-Star wager using the line is a solid play as well. SIM Projections and Results Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows: Dallas is projected to gain at least 50 more rushing yards and have a greater yards-per-play (YPPL) ratio. When the Saints have allowed these measures in road games, they are just 5-45 SU losing by an average of 11.5 points and 10-39-1 ATS failing to cover the number by an average eof 8.7 points. Saints have won 10 and covered in 9 straight games and this sets up as a very tough situation for them to continue their success. Teams on 10 or more game winning streaks and are installed as as road favorites are just 7-22 ATS for 24% and losing to the spread by an average of 7 points. The last time this situation happened was in 2016 with the Dallas Cowboys, so you can bet this has been discussed in detail in their meetings this week. In Week 13 of the 2016 season, they won the game but failed to cover the number on the road against the Vikings. The next week they laid a big-time egg scoring just 7 points and allowing 10 points in the fourth quarter on the road at Giants Stadium. Playing on home teams using the money line and are mistake-free teams committing 1 or less turnovers-per-game and after 2 consecutive games where they committed no turnovers has produced a highly successful 45-8 SU record good for 85% winners since 2014. When these teams are coming off a game where they enjoyed a +2 turnover margin, the record goes to 25-5 for 83.3% winning by an average of 10.9 points. Saints will have advantages, of course, with WR Thomas and Kirkwood, but they are going up against two of the better corners in the conference. Anthony Brown will defend Kirkwood and although he is barely 6-feet tall, he runs a 4.33 forty and will blanket Kirkwood all over the field. Byron Jones has the size and excellent technique to contain Thomas in man coverage situations. The fact that Dallas can bring pressure and still have confidence in their corners to minimize separation distances eliminates the double-move routes that the Saints have had major success with over their 0-game winning streak. Dallas has added Amari Cooper to their WR group and it has enabled the offense to stretch defenses vertically, which in turn opens up enhanced running lanes for Elliott and other RBs to dart through to the second level. Dallas does have an advantage in the run game and this truly is the most import key for Dallas to control game tempo, time of possession, and field position. Once the running game is established and the Saints need to bring a safety into the box, it will open up outstanding play action opportunities for Prescott to execute. |
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11-26-18 | Titans +4.5 v. Texans | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup Tennessee (273) Tennessee (5 - 5) at Houston (7 - 3) Week 12 Monday, 11/26/2018 8:15 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Titans, who are priced as 4.5-point road dogs. Consider an alternative combination wager consisting of a 7.5-Star play using the line and a 2.5-Star play using the money line to exploit the upset Titan victory. SIM Projections and Results Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows: Titans are projected to have modestly more rushing yards and will have no more than 0.5 YPPL deficit than the Texans. When these two performance measuring sticks have been met or exceeded by the Titans, they have produced a stout 104-37-2 ATSD mark for 74%. When this game has been on the road, they have produced a 52-17 mark good for 75% and covering by an average of 7.9 points. Drilling the dataset a bit deeper, our queries return a 31-8 ATS record good for 80% and covering by 9.7 points per game when installed as a road dog of 1 to 7 points and 5-1 ATS since the start of the 2015 season covering by an average of 13.6 points. |
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11-25-18 | Dolphins +9 v. Colts | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup Miami Dolphins (265) MIAMI (5 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 5) Week 12 Sunday, 11/25/2018 1:00 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Dolphins, who are priced as 8-point road dogs. Consider an alternative wager using a combination of an 5-Star amount using the line and a 2-Star amount using the money line, which is priced at about +270. So, a 2-Star wager ($200) seeing the Dolphins pull off the upset returns ($540). If they fail to win, but cover, the return is still a healthy 5-Star amount. SIM Projections and Results Projection summary calls for the Dolphins to gain 0.5 yards-per-play or fewer than the Colts. These road teams that are installed as dogs of 8 to 14.5 points are a solid 22-4 ATS for 85% covering by an average of 7.5 points since the start of the 2016 season. This database situation query that has produced a 35-19 ATS record good for 72% winners since the start of the 1980 season. Play on any team (MIAMI) in a game involving two poor defensive teams allowing 23 to 27 PPG in the 2nd half of the season and after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games. |
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11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers UNDER 46.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 27 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup UNDER (263-264) SEATTLE (5 - 5) at CAROLINA (6 - 4) Week 12 Sunday, 11/25/2018 1:00 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the UNDER, which is priced at 46.5-points. SIM Projections and Results Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows: Seattle has not forced a single turnover in three straight games and previous teams in this situation have played UNDER in 28 of 46 games. Both teams are projected to have fewer than 200 passing yards and to execute no more than 120 plays from scrimmage. In this pair of situations the UNDER is 1070-314-22 for 77.3% since 1980 and 50-14 for 78.1% since the start of the 2016 season. The following database query has produced a 55-24 mark good for 70% over the past 10 seasons. Play Under with road teams against the total (SEATTLE) in the second half of the season that are off 1 or more straight ‘overs’ and is an average defensive team allowing 18 to 23 PPG and is now facing a poor defensive team allowing 23 to 27 PPG. This DB query plays on the ‘UNDER’ in the month of November with teams that are off a close road loss of 3 points or less and has produced a 85-46 record for 65% winners since 1980. |
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11-25-18 | 49ers +2 v. Bucs | Top | 9-27 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 27 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report San Francisco (255) SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 8) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 7) Week 12 Sunday, 11/25/2018 1:00 PM
SIM grading and Recommended Strategy SIM Projections and Results 49ers are expected to gain between 350 and 400 total offensive yards and average 6.0 to 6.5 yards-per-play. The 49ers are 16-4-3 ATS when they have achieved this pair of performance measures. When at home and allowing these performance measurss, the Bucs are an imperfect 0-5 ATS failing to cover by an average of 15.6 points. The following database system query has produced a solid 67-30 ATS mark good for 69% winners over the past five seasons. Play against favorites (TAMPA BAY) with a poor turnover defense forcing 1 or less turnovers-per-game and after a game where they forced no turnovers. |
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11-25-18 | Giants +4.5 v. Eagles | Top | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 2 h 54 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report NY GIANTS (3 - 7) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 6) Week 12 Sunday, 11/25/2018 1:00 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Also play a 7-Star wager on the ‘OVER’ and consider no more than a 3-Star amount on a reverse action parlay using the Giants and the ‘over’ OR a 3-start straight parlay using the Giants and the ‘OVER’. SIM Projections and Results This money line database query has produced a remarkable 24-3 record for 89% since 1980. Play on any team using the money line in the second half of the season (NY GIANTS) that are mistake-free teams averaging less than 1.25 TO-per-Game committed and is now facing a team forcing no more than 1.25 TO-per-Game and after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Giants are also 14-7 ATS off of B2B games achieving a turnover margin of 2 or better. |
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11-24-18 | Auburn +25.5 v. Alabama | Top | 21-52 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report Auburn (7 - 4) at Alabama (11 - 0) Week 13 Saturday, 11/24/2018 3:30 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy SIM Projections and Results Here is a strong database situational query that has produced a 24-5 ATS result for 83% winners since 2008. Play on road underdogs (AUBURN) after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins. A second query under scores the strength of this play even more producing a 25-3 ATS mark good for 89% winners since 2008. Play on a road team after game 7 that is an average defensive team allowing between 330 to 390 YPG and after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game And is now facing a good defensive team allowing between 280 to 330 YPG. |
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11-24-18 | Michigan v. Ohio State +5 | Top | 39-62 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup Ohio State (105) Michigan (10 - 1) at Ohio St (10 - 1) Week 13 Saturday, 11/24/2018 12:00 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Buckeyes, who are priced as 5-point home dogs. Consider an alternative wager using a combination of an 5-Star amount using the line and a 2-Star amount using the money line, which is priced at about +190. So, a 2-Star wager ($200) seeing the Buckeyes pull off the upset returns ($380). If they fail to win, but cover, the return is still a healthy 5-Star amount. SIM Projections and Results Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows: Michigan is 22-61 ATS (-45.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards-per-attempt; 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50 or fewer yards. OSU is a solid 142-54 ATS (+82.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points. OSU is 34-0 SU and 23-9-2 ATS, and 21-12 ‘OVER’ in home games scoring 28 ro more points and passing for a minimum of 8.5 yards-per-attempt. Not since October 29, 2011 has OSU been installed as a home dog. On they date, they played Wisconsin installed as 7.5-point home dogs and won the game 33-29. Dating back to 1980, our DB shows that OSU has been a home dog on 16 occasions and have gone 7-8-1 SU and 10-5-1 ATS. The last time Michigan came to Columbus as a favorite was November 20, 2004 and they were throttled 37-21. Interesting that the line for this game showed Michigan priced as a 5-point favorite just as they are for today’s game. The following database query has produced a 37-12 ATS mark good for 76% over the past 5 seasons. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO ST) in a game involving two dominant teams outgaining opponents by 100 or more YPG and after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game. This DB query is based on the money line and is remarkable in its’ own right sporting a 28-19 SU record and making 42.6 stars per Star unit wager since 1992. Play on home underdogs using the money line (OHIO ST) in a game involving two explosive offensive teams scoring 34 or more PPG and after scoring 42 points or more last game. |
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11-24-18 | Florida v. Florida State +7.5 | Top | 41-14 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup Florida State (200) Florida (8 - 3) at Florida St (5 - 6) Week 13 Saturday, 11/24/2018 12:00 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Seminoles, who are priced as 7-point home dogs. Consider an alternative wager using a combination of an 5-Star amount using the line and a 2-Star amount using the money line, which is priced at about +240. So, a 2-Star wager ($200) seeing the Seminoles pull off the upset returns ($480). If they fail to win, but cover, the return is still a healthy 5-Star amount. SIM Projections and Results Projection summary calls for the Seminoles to score a minimum 24 points and gain at least 8.5 passing yards per attempt. In FSU home games where they have attained these performance measures, they have produced a 30-3 SU record and 22-11-1 ATS mark; since the start of the 2013 season, they are 17-2 SU and 13-5-1 ATS for 72% covering by 6.3 PPG. This database situation query that has produced a 25-6 ATS record good for 81% winners since the start of the 1992 season. Play against road favorites (FLORIDA) that are solid offensive teams gaining between 5.6 to 6.2 YPP after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games and are now facing an average defense allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 YPP and after 7 or more games. |
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11-24-18 | Syracuse v. Boston College -6.5 | Top | 42-21 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report Boston College (160) Syracuse (8 - 3) At Boston College (7 - 4) Week 13 Saturday, 11/24/2018 12:00 PM
SIM grading and Recommended Strategy SIM Projections and Results Syracuse is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) in road games when they allow 29 to 35 points since 1992; 21-40 ATS (-23.0 Units) when they allow 150 to 200 rushing yards since 1992; 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points; 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) when they gain 4.5 to 5 total yards per play. BC is a near-perfect 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 40-14 ATS (+24.6 Units) when they score 29 to 35 points. The following database system query has produced a solid 35-13 ATS mark good for 73% winners over the past five seasons. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SYRACUSE) with an elite offense averaging 450 or more total yards-per-game and after being outgained by the previous opponent by 125 or more total yards. |
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11-23-18 | Central Florida v. South Florida +15 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup The South Florida Bulls (105) UCF (10 - 0) at South Florida (7 - 4) Week 13 Friday, 11/23/2018 4:15 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Bulls, who are priced as 14.5-point home dogs. Consider an alternative wager using a combination of an 8-Star amount using the line and a 2-Star amount using the money line, which is priced at about +500. So, a 2-Star wager ($200) seeing the Bulls pull off the upset returns 10-Stars ($1,000). SIM Projections and Results Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows: Both teams are projected to score 28 or more points. Home dogs of 10 to 17.5 points scoring 28 or more points and their guests matching that output have produced a 240-83-10 ATS mark good for 74% covering by an average of 6.3 points. Drilling the data set a bit further to include conference games returns a 198-61-8 ATS record good for 76.4% covering by an average of 6.7 points. Finally, if the visitor ranks in the Top-10, the home dog takes real meaning with a 25-4-1 SATS record and 86% covering by an average of 8.7 points. The following database query has produced a 31-10 ATS mark good for 76% since 1992. Play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UCF) off 3 straight wins against conference rivals and is a top-level team winning 80% or more of their games and now playing a good team with a 60 to 80 win percentage. |
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11-22-18 | Bears -3 v. Lions | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 2 h 1 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup The Chicago Bears (105) Chicago (7 - 3) at Detroit (4 - 6) Week 12 Thursday, 11/22/2018 12:30 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Chicago Bears, who are priced as 3-point road favorites. This play is with Chase Daniels at QB. SIM Projections and Results Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows: Bears are a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards-per-attempt. Detroit is just 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) when they allow 8 to 8.5 net passing yards-per-attempt. Bears are 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 to 1 yard-per-play. In Detroit home games facing a strong QB, who is completing 64% or more of his passes and are outgained by at least 0.5 YPPL has produced a poor 30-88-3 ATS mark losing to the spread by an average of 8.1 points. Since the start of the 20`15 season, the Lions are 5-14 ATS for 26% under the same performance measures. Chase Daniels will start at QB. Good news for him knowing he has excellent matchup advantages with his two WR Anthony Miller (Slot) and Taylor Gabriel. Allen Robinson is evenly matched against Lions corner Darius Slay. Miller will see more targets in this game using quick slants, hooks, bubble screens for Daniels to execute successfully. So, with the run game over-matched against the Lions defensive front, these quick hitters will serve the same purpose and put Daniels and the offense into a minimum of long downs. Detroit will have immense difficulty getting passes completed to either WR, but especially T.J. Jones, who will be covered by Amukamara. This matchup is the weakest of any WR-CB matchup on this weeks’ NFL card. They are both 6-foot tall, but Amukamara has size and speed weighing 205 pounds to Jones’ 190 and speed with a 4.38 versus 4.46 40-time. Not much difference in speed, but the size allows Amukamara to be very physical with Jones in the first 5-yards of any route. Kenny Golladay will be the other starting WR for the Lions and he will defended by one of the best in Kyle Fuller. The Lions have swapped these WR given that Golladay has lineup ‘right’ 39%, left 30%, and slot 16% of plays run, but either Bears defender has the upper hand in both matchups. |
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11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams -3 | Top | 51-54 | Push | 0 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup Los Angeles Rams (466) Kansas City (9 - 1) at La Rams (9 - 1) Week 11 Monday, 11/19/2018 8:15 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Rams, who are priced as 3-point home favorites. This line may go to 3.5 from its’ current level of 3 -120 that are available at the majority of books we monitor. Lines makers really do not want to have the number ‘3’ changed and would prefer to move the vig instead. Yet, I do not think you’ll see -3 and -125 vig and instead the line will shift to -3 ½ -105. With the Rams projected to win by more than 11 points, the vig is almost irrelevant at this point and it doesn’t hurt to book the wager at -3 -120 line. An alternative is to play the money at -160, but reduce the size of your bet so you are only risking a 10-star amount. So, 10-Stars devided by 1.60 would then equal a wager of 6.25-Stars on the money line. SIM Projections and Results Projection summary calls for the Rams to score between 28 and 35 points, will rush for more than 140 yards and pass for more than 300. The Rams are 7-1 ATS and 8-0 SU oinstalled as a home favorite when they rush for 140 or more yards and pass for more than 300 yards. This database situational query has produced a 39-6 ATS mark good for 83% winners since 2008. Play on favorites (LA RAMS) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games and is now facing an opponent having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games. When these teams are home favorites, the record improves to 25-4 ATS for 86% and is also 13-2 ATS over the past five seasons. Next, this query has returned a record of 51-21 for 71% winners over the past 10 seasons and works against the Chiefs. Play against underdogs or pick (KANSAS CITY) that is a very hot team having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games. This is the game we have all been waiting for and after the Saints put up the gaudy offensive and defensive numbers against the defending SB Champs Eagles yesterday, the Rams may have just a bit more motivation to show them and the football world what they are capable of achieving. The Rams have a significantly better defense based on our metrics and rankings and this may be more of the highlight tonight then the offenses. The Rams pass rush ranks best in the NFL and the dominant reason is that they have the personnel to cover any WR in man situations and open space. The left side of the OL is vulnerable to this aggressive pass rush. Guard Cam Irving and left tackle Eric Fisher have really struggled in blitz situations an drank near the bottom of NFL starters in this category. Of course, Mahomes has the athleticism to extend plays and avoid sacks, but few teams, if any, have the intelligent speed that the Rams defense possesses. Look for the Rams to really bring the heat in passing downs when the Chiefs are on their right hash. The Rams can execute containment on the perimeter and use the right sidelines essentially as an extra defender. This could see Mahomes make the critical mistake of throwing back across the field with high risk results. Jared Goff leads the NFL with 204 attempts having a minimum of 2.5 seconds to execute the play and has achieved a 107.3 QBR that ranks ninth best. By comparison, Mahomes ranks 9th in attempts with 2.5 or more seconds of protection, buty ranks a dismal 26th in QBR. Think KC will blitz Goff? Well, that is a very dangerous situation given that Goff has achieved a 111.9 QBR with no pressure and a 115.5 under blitz conditions. Moreover, the Rams trio of receivers of Kupp, Woods, and Cooks have gotten the most respect of any group in the NFL with defenders giving them an average cushion of 6.5 yards and all of them average more than 3.5 yards of separation on targeted pass plays. Now, Kupp is not playing and the Rams will adjust to fill that gap that he leaves in their overall production. That addition can come from many different players. Rams will look to run more two TE sets with Everett, who is an exceptional receiver and can line-up anywhere on the field. His size and speed will present an immediate matchup problem for the Chiefs defense. Josh Reynolds will certainly see more targets as well. Overall, the two TE and 4 and 5-WR sets will have these different personnel in them and Goff still has Gurley in the backfield to use as a decoy for his high percentage play action pass plays. Take the Rams |
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11-18-18 | Eagles v. Saints -7 | Top | 7-48 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report Philadelphia (4 - 5) At New Orleans (8 - 1) Week 11 Sunday, 11/18/2018 4:25 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy SIM Projections and Results Here is a strong database situational query that has produced a 40-16 ASTS result for 71% winners since 2008. Play against any team (PHILADELPHIA) off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite in the month of November. A second query under scores the strength of this play even more producing a 63-28 ATS mark good for 69% winners since 1980. Play on home favorites (NEW ORLEANS) tht are outrushing opponents by 40 or more YPG and after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game and are now facing an average rushing team posting a +/- 30 RYPG differential after 8 or more games. |
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11-18-18 | Steelers v. Jaguars +6 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup Jacksonville Jaguars (472) Pittsburgh (6 - 2 - 1) At Jacksonville (3 - 6) Week 11 Sunday, 11/18/2018 1:00 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are priced as 5.5-point home dogs. SIM Projections and Results Projection summary calls for the Jaguars to score 24 to 30 points and will hold Pittsburgh to less than 85 rushing yards. When the JaguARS HAVE MET OR EXCEEDED these performance measures in home games they have gone 17-2 SU winning by 10.5 PPG and 13-5-1 ATS for 72% covering by 7.7 points. When installed as a home dog, they have gone 4-1 SUATS covering by 11 points. When the Steelers have been involved with games rushing for less than 85 yards and allowing 24 to 30 on the road they have gone a miserable 2-13 SU losing by an average of 11.4 PPG and 3-12 ATS failing to cover by an average of 11.20 points. When they are installed as road favorites they have gone 1-7 SUATS losing by an average of 9.9 points and failing to cover by an average of 13.4 points. This database situation query that has produced a 30-8 ATS record good for 79% winners spanning the last 10 seasons. Play on any team that is a struggling offensive team scoring 14 to 18 PPG and is now facing a defensive team allowing 23 to 27 PPG and after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. |
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11-17-18 | Ohio State v. Maryland +14.5 | Top | 52-51 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report Ohio St (9 - 1) at Maryland (5 - 5) Week 12 Saturday, 11/17/2018 12:00 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy SIM Projections and Results |
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11-16-18 | Memphis v. SMU +7.5 | Top | 28-18 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup SMU 181) Memphis (6 - 4) at SMU (5 - 5) Week 12 Friday, 11/16/2018 9:00 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the SMU Mustangs, who are priced as 7.5-point home dogs. SIM Projections and Results Projection summary calls for the Mustangs to attain a 12.5 yards-per-point ratio or lower and that their YPPT ratio will be less (more efficient offense) than the Memphis Tigers. When installed as home dogs, SMU is a perfect 8-0 ATS covering by an average of 20 PPG when meeting or exceeded these performance measures. This database situation query that has produced a 34-8 ATS record good for 81% winners spanning the last 25 seasons. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SMU) after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games and is now facing an opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games. |
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11-14-18 | Buffalo v. Ohio -2.5 | Top | 17-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report Ohio University (513) Buffalo (9 - 1) at Ohio U (6 - 4) Week 12 Wednesday, 11/14/2018 7:00 PM
SIM Projections and Results Projections call for Ohio to score at least 28 points, have at least 200 rushing yards, and gain a minimum of 6.5 YPPL. Since 2006, Ohio is a solid 47-6 SU winning by 18.7 PPG and 40-10-2 ATS covering the spread by 8.9 PPG when scoring 28 points and gaining 200 or more rushing yards. When attaining these performance measures in home games they are 21-4-2 ATS for 84% covering by 9 PPG. |
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan v. Ball State +9 | Top | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-11-18 | Cowboys +8 v. Eagles | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 3 h 32 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-11-18 | Patriots v. Titans +7 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 1 h 52 m | Show |
ohn Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-10-18 | Clemson v. Boston College +19 | Top | 27-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
The Play and the Matchup |
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11-10-18 | Auburn +14 v. Georgia | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
The Play and the Matchup |
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11-10-18 | Mississippi State +24.5 v. Alabama | Top | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-10-18 | Wisconsin v. Penn State -8 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 3 h 4 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-10-18 | TCU +12 v. West Virginia | Top | 10-47 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 4 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-09-18 | Louisville +21 v. Syracuse | Top | 23-54 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-08-18 | Panthers +3.5 v. Steelers | Top | 21-52 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-08-18 | Wake Forest v. NC State -18 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-05-18 | Titans v. Cowboys -4.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-04-18 | Steelers v. Ravens -116 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -116 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-04-18 | Lions +5.5 v. Vikings | Top | 9-24 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-04-18 | Falcons v. Redskins UNDER 47.5 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-04-18 | Chiefs v. Browns +9 | Top | 37-21 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-03-18 | Missouri +6.5 v. Florida | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-03-18 | Penn State +13.5 v. Michigan | Top | 7-42 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 30 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-03-18 | Georgia Southern -6.5 v. UL-Monroe | Top | 25-44 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-03-18 | Texas A&M v. Auburn -3 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-03-18 | Nebraska +19.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 31-36 | Win | 100 | 3 h 9 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-02-18 | Colorado +3 v. Arizona | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-01-18 | Raiders v. 49ers -130 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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11-01-18 | Temple v. Central Florida -10 | Top | 40-52 | Win | 100 | 51 h 59 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-30-18 | Miami-OH +7 v. Buffalo | Top | 42-51 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-28-18 | Saints v. Vikings +2 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-28-18 | Packers v. Rams -7.5 | Top | 27-29 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-28-18 | Eagles v. Jaguars +4.5 | Top | 24-18 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-27-18 | Texas v. Oklahoma State +3.5 | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-27-18 | Georgia -6.5 v. Florida | Top | 36-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-26-18 | Utah -10.5 v. UCLA | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-25-18 | Baylor +14 v. West Virginia | Top | 14-58 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup Baylor University Bears ( Baylor (4 - 3) at W Virginia (5 - 1) Week 9 Thursday, 10/25/2018 7:00 PM SIM grading 7 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale. Recommended Strategy Place a 7-star wager on Baylor using the money line, which currently shows them installed as a 13.5-point road dog. SIM Matching Game Situations The summary projections call for both teams to score 18 or more points. In past Baylor road games where they were installed as dogs of 10 to 17 points and both teams did score 28 or more points, Baylor has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS covering by an average of 11 points per game. Looks like WVU will need a last minute FG to win this one – or maybe not. |
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10-23-18 | Troy -10.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-22-18 | Giants v. Falcons -3.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-20-18 | Ohio State v. Purdue +13 | Top | 20-49 | Win | 100 | 2 h 39 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-20-18 | NC State v. Clemson -17 | Top | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-19-18 | Colorado State v. Boise State -24 | Top | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-18-18 | Stanford -2.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals +1.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
The Play and the Matchup |
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10-14-18 | Rams -6.5 v. Broncos | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-14-18 | Cardinals +10.5 v. Vikings | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-14-18 | Cardinals v. Vikings OVER 44 | Top | 17-27 | Push | 0 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-13-18 | Michigan State v. Penn State -13.5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -109 | 53 h 2 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-13-18 | Georgia -8 v. LSU | Top | 16-36 | Loss | -109 | 53 h 44 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-13-18 | Washington v. Oregon +3 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 52 h 26 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-13-18 | Florida v. Vanderbilt +7.5 | Top | 37-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-12-18 | Air Force v. San Diego State UNDER 44 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report @JohnRyanSports1 The Play and the Matchup UNDER Air Force – San Diego State (113-114) Air Force (2 - 3) At SAN DIEGO ST (4 - 1) Week 7 Friday, 10/12/2018 9:00 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy 10 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale. Place a 10-star wager on the UNDER using the total line, which is currently priced at 44.5-points. SIM Projections and Results Projection summary calls for SDST to gain at least 2.0 yards per play more than Airforce. In past situations matching this performance level, SDST has produced a 18-9 ‘UNDER’ mark. And when at home in this situation the ‘UNDER’ is 13-4. Air Force is projected to gain less than 200 RY and less than 100 passing yards and have been a perfect 4-0 ‘under’ in this scenario. Following is a database situational query has produced an exception 40-14 record good for 74% winners since 1992. Play ‘Under’ with any team against the total that is coming off an upset win as an underdog and is now facing an opponent off an upset win as a road underdog of 10 or more. |
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10-07-18 | Packers v. Lions +1 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-07-18 | Dolphins v. Bengals -6 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-06-18 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech +7 | Top | 45-23 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report NOTRE DAME (5 - 0) at VIRGINIA TECH (3 - 1) Week 6 Saturday, 10/6/2018 8:00 PM
SIM Projections and Results Here is a solid database system query that has produced a solid 44-14 record good for 76% winners over the past 25 seasons. Play against road favorites good offensive team averaging between 5.6 to 6.2 yards-per-play and after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games and is now facing a team with an average defense allowing 4.8 to 5.6 YPP. |
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10-06-18 | Auburn -3.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 9-23 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report AUBURN (4 - 1) at MISSISSIPPI ST (3 - 2) Week 6 Saturday, 10/6/2018 7:30 PM SIM grading and Recommended Strategy SIM Projections and Results State is coming off back-to-back horrid offensive games losing at Kentucky 28-7 and losing at home to Florida 13-6. Traveling ranked teams in the top-25 playing a team that scored 10 or less points in two straight games are 26-8 ASYS for 77% winners and 33-1 SU. Here is a great database system query that has produced a 29-5 record good for 85% winners since 1992. Play on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off 3 or more consecutive ‘unders’, with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game. |
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10-06-18 | Syracuse v. Pittsburgh +4 | Top | 37-44 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
ohn Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-06-18 | Kansas +28 v. West Virginia | Top | 22-38 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-06-18 | Northwestern v. Michigan State -10 | Top | 29-19 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-05-18 | Utah State +3 v. BYU | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots -10 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-30-18 | Ravens +3 v. Steelers | Top | 26-14 | Win | 103 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-30-18 | Bengals v. Falcons -3.5 | Top | 37-36 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 14 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-30-18 | Jets +7.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 12-31 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 14 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-30-18 | Eagles v. Titans OVER 41 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 1 h 13 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-29-18 | Ohio State v. Penn State +4 | Top | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 105 h 45 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-29-18 | Pittsburgh +13.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-29-18 | Syracuse +25.5 v. Clemson | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
The Play and the Matchup |
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09-29-18 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +4 | Top | 42-34 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-28-18 | Memphis v. Tulane +15 | Top | 24-40 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams -7 | Top | 31-38 | Push | 0 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-23-18 | Saints v. Falcons -1.5 | Top | 43-37 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-22-18 | Kansas +7.5 v. Baylor | Top | 7-26 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-22-18 | Georgia -14 v. Missouri | Top | 43-29 | Push | 0 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
The Play and the Matchup |
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09-21-18 | Florida Atlantic +14 v. Central Florida | Top | 36-56 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-20-18 | Tulsa +7 v. Temple | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-15-18 | Ohio State v. TCU +13 | Top | 40-28 | Win | 100 | 34 h 4 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-15-18 | Rutgers v. Kansas -2.5 | Top | 14-55 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-13-18 | Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 44 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders +5 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-09-18 | Bills +8 v. Ravens | Top | 3-47 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-09-18 | Titans v. Dolphins +2 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-09-18 | Bengals v. Colts -2 | Top | 34-23 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-08-18 | Georgia v. South Carolina UNDER 55 | Top | 41-17 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL v. LSU +3.5 | Top | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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09-01-18 | Washington v. Auburn -2 | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
John Ryan Sports Research Report |
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