For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL | CFB | MLB | NBA | CBB | NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-22-17 | Falcons v. Patriots -3 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: New England Start Time: 8:30 PM ET SIM grading: 7 stars Recommended Strategy: Play Patriots for a 7 star amount on the line. An optional strategy is to play the ‘under’ and the Patriots using the line for no more than 3 star reverse action parlay that pays 4:1 odds. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone hitting winners and has made units/unit wagered since . The system has also averaged an impressive . The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are a solid 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons. Patriots are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Patriots are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game over the last 2 seasons. Patriots are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing excellent offensive teams averaging 6 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons. Belichick is 53-25 ATS (+25.5 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of NE. Patriots are a perfect 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) when they gain 400 or more total yards over the last 2 seasons. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Patriots.
|
|||||||
10-22-17 | Jets v. Dolphins -3 | Top | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
The Matchup:Miami -3 versus NY Jets Start Time:10-22-2017 1:00PM SIM grading: 7 stars Recommended Strategy: wager a 7 star play using the line on Miami. An alternative wager is to play a 4* amount on the money line and a 3 star amount on the line.
Miami is coming off a strong second half at Atlanta last week, while the Jets were getting robbed in New England. This was a tough loss for the Jets who have to travel to Miami who will be looking to avenge an earlier loss to the Jets this season. We are for expecting an inspired effort by the Dolphins this afternoon and avenge the loss earlier this season. Take Miami
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 23-4 hitting 85% winners and has made 19.0 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play on home teams using the money line. After going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. In conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. NY Jets are 0-6 ATS off a division game the last 3 years Miami is 18-7 ATS revenging a road loss of 14 or more points since 199 Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Miami Dolphins. |
|||||||
10-21-17 | Wyoming +14 v. Boise State | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: 363 Wyoming Start Time: 10-21-2017 10:15 PM SIM grading: 7 stars Recommended Strategy: Play a 7star amount using the line on Wyoming. Current line is in the +14 ½ range. We also highly recommend a 2.5* amount using the money line on Wyoming. This money line is at +440, which means if you wager $100 per star unit and Wyoming does pull off the upset, you will make $1,100 just from the 2.5 star money line wager.
Round Table Discussion Points Here is a data query from our massive database of college and pro sports that has delivered a very strong 28-5 ATS mark good for 85% winners since 2013. Take underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points. After winning 4 of last 5 games. And is now facing a good team with a winning record.
The Cowboys are currently tied with Boise just a game behind CSU in the conference. Josh Allen has been able to get the job done when the Cowboys have stepped down in class this season. Both Offenses have struggled to put points on the board, but both defenses have been good this year. Boise State had a big win last week at San Diego State, but this was mostly done by the defense and special teams and then they were able to force the Aztecs out of their game. We look for another slugfest and we like getting the points in a game we feel will be less than a TD. Take Wyoming and the points.
|
|||||||
10-21-17 | SMU -7.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: 321 SMU Start Time: 10-21-2017 4:00 PM SIM grading: 7 stars Recommended Strategy: Wager a 7 star amount on SMU minus the points, which is currently at -7 ½ at the majority of books.
Round Table Discussion Points Couple of systems delivering 76% plus winners on SMU for this Saturday afternoon matchup. Cincinnati is 4-14 when allowing 28 points since 1992 Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS when rushing for 100 to 150 yards last 3 years. Cincinnati is 4-24 ATS when allowing 35 to 41 points the last 3 years
SMU comes into this one scoring 43 plus points per game on the season and has a balanced per plays offensive attack with 191 yards on the ground and over 316 yards through the air. The Bearcats offense comes into this one averaging 20 points per game and offense has struggled most of the season. SMU has also been opportunistic on defense and are a plus 8 turnovers on the season. Ben Hicks has been solid this season completing 59% of his passes for 15 Touchdowns and 5 interceptions on the season. The top 3 rushers are averaging over 5 yards per carry and the receivers led by Trey Quinn and Cortland Sutton have been productive against all defenses this year. We don’t see the Bearcats offense keeping up with the charging Ponies today. Take SMU and lay the 7 1\2 today
|
|||||||
10-21-17 | Indiana v. Michigan State OVER 45.5 | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Indiana Start Time: Week 8 Saturday, 10/21/2017 3:30 PM SIM grading: 10* Big Ten Recommended Strategy: Wager a 10 star amount on Indiana using the line. Alternate wager is place a 7.5 star amount on the line and a 2.5 star amount on the money line. Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, Indiana is today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit say 62%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly. We have a large set of systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons. So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following data query has gone 42-15 ATS hitting 74% winners and has made $2,550 wagering $100 per game since 1992. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points. Off 3 straight wins against conference rivals. With just 9 or fewer total starters returning. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Indiana. Ryan’s 10* Big-10 Conference Game of the Month Ryan has been hammering the books on the gridiron this season led by an incredible 19-5 ATS NFL start in 2017. The 10 star play is the highest and strongest possible grading produced by his SIM Algorithm programs. This play is a DOG that the SIM projections show can win the game SU. Get on board now and start having this 22-year proven veteran work for you |
|||||||
10-21-17 | Tulsa v. Connecticut +6 | Top | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 46 h 52 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Connecticut (318) Start Time: Week 8 Saturday, 10/21/2017 12:00 PM SIM grading: 7 stars Recommended Strategy: Wager a 7 star amount on Connecticut. The line opened with Tulsa installed as a seven point favorite. The line has slipped to 6 at the majority of books with a few now at 5 ½. This line movement is quite favorable given that 76% of the public wagers are on Tulsa, but the line is going down. This reflects that the large ‘mart money’ pros are betting on Connecticut. So, an alternative strategy is to play a 5 star amount using the line and a 2 star amount using the money line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following data query returns games that have gone 2-18 ATS hitting 10% winners and has made $1,580 per $100 wagered since 1980. Play against a road favorite in a conference tilt. Team is off a straight-up conference home win installed as a dog. Team covered that home win by more than 10 points. And is now facing a conference opponent. And that foe is off a straight-up win installed as a DOG.
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tulsa is just 49-116 ATS (-78.6 Units) when they allow 28 or more points. Tulsa is 23-57 ATS (-39.7 Units) when they allow 9 or more net passing yards/attempt. Tulsa is 24-60 ATS (-42.0 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play. Connecticut is 48-12 ATS (+34.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points. Connecticut is 20-4 ATS (+15.6 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Connecticut. |
|||||||
10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders +3 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Oakland Raiders (302) Start Time: Week 7 Thursday, 10/19/2017 8:25 PM SIM grading: 7 stars Recommended Strategy: Play on the Raiders plus the points for a 7 star amount.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 58-27 hitting 68% winners and has made 28.3 units/unit wagered since 1983.
Play against any team (KANSAS CITY). That is a good rushing team averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry. And after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.
Oakland is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they rush for 5 to 5.5 yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons. Oakland is a near-perfect 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they rush for 5 or more yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Raiders on Thursday Night Football. |
|||||||
10-19-17 | UL-Lafayette +13 v. Arkansas State | Top | 3-47 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: LA-Lafayette (305) Start Time: Week 8 Thursday, 10/19/2017 7:30 PM SIM grading: 7 stars Recommended Strategy: Play a 7* amount using the line on LA - Lafayette.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following database query has gone 18-11 hitting 62% winners and has made 29 units/unit wagered since2014. The system has also averaged an impressive +223 DOG play. Play on a road team. Using the money line (LA LAFAYETTE). After going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games. And with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LAL is a solid 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games when they allow 100 to 150 rushing yards. LAL is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better. LAL is 32-13 ATS (+17.7 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. Hudspeth is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games after playing 3 straight conference games as the coach of LAL.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board LA - Lafayette.
|
|||||||
10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans -6.5 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Tennessee (276) Start Time: Week 6 Monday, 10/16/2017 8:30 PM SIM grading: 7 stars Recommended Strategy: Play a 10* amount using the line on Tennessee. Play a 5 star amount on the ‘OVER’. Play a 3* reverse parlay using the Titans and the ‘OVER’.
Round Table Discussion Points A reverse parlay is essentially a double action ‘IF’ bet. Here's how the reverse parlay works: In the first part of the bet, we'll say Tennessee is -7 ½, you are risking $110 to win $100. The ‘IF’ bet comes into play next with your second part of the bet which we'll say is the ‘OVER’ lined at 49 1/2 for $110 risk to win $100. Part 2 of the reverse bet would be the ‘OVER’ risking $110 for $100 and then if that wins the Titans -7 comes into play at $110 risk to win $100. If both ‘IF’ bets win you get $400 for the $100 reverse parlay bet. If one play wins and one play loses you lose $120. If both lose you lose $220 or $240 depending on the books vig charge. A push, where you win one, and push on the second, or push on both would get you $200.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following data query has produced a 35-10 ATS record hitting 78% winners and has made $2,400 per $100 game wagered since 2008. Play on any team (TENNESSEE). After being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games. And is now facing an opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games.
This shows the games played since the 2014 season, which has produced a 9-3 ATS record. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Tennessee.
|
|||||||
10-15-17 | Packers v. Vikings +3.5 | Top | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Minnesota Vikings (260) Start Time: Week 6 Sunday, 10/15/2017 1:00 PM SIM grading: 7 stars Recommended Strategy: Place a 7 star amount on the line playing the Vikings. Given that the projections clearly show an upset, consider making a combination wager that consists of a 5 star amount using the line and a 2 star amount using the money line.
Round Table Discussion Points Interesting that when the announcement of Bradford not starting and that Kennum would be starting at QB, the lie did not move. If anything, the line has seen a slight push toward the 3 point level and the books increasing the vig to -115 to play on the Vikings. This push will increase the money line we can get on the Vikings. That money line is currently listed at +140/+145 at the majority of the large sports books. So, as long as you can get a minimum of +135 on the money line, the combination wager is the preferred strategy.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following money line system has gone 78-59 hitting 57% winners and has made $3,090 per $100 game wagered since 2008. Play against road teams using the money line. After having won 3 out of their last 4 games. And is a top level team winning 75% or more of their games on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Vikings are 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) in home games after a win by 6 or less points since 1992. Vikings are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. Vikings are 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in home games when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards Vikings are 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons. Vikings are a perfect 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Minnesota Vikings.
|
|||||||
10-15-17 | Patriots -9 v. Jets | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: New England Start Time: Week 6 Sunday, 10/15/2017 1:00 PM SIM grading: 7 stars Recommended Strategy: Play a 7 star amount using the line on the Patriots.
Round Table Discussion Points The Patriots will be without two of their top cover men against the Jets. A late addition to the Pats’ injury report, Stephon Gilmore is out for Sunday’s game with a concussion. Gilmore was not listed on New England’s injury report prior to Saturday, but Josina Anderson of ESPN.com reports (on Twitter) the cornerback had experienced headaches since the Buccaneers game nine days ago. Eric Rowe is out with a groin injury, leaving the Patriots shorthanded on the outside. Gilmore’s concussion setback comes after he was a game-time decision to face the Bucs due to an ankle injury. Rowe hasn’t practiced since aggravating a groin problem in Week 4. New England did not sign anyone before Saturday afternoon’s deadline, so the team will not make a practice squad promotion for depth purposes as a result of these injuries.
This key info does not have any significant impact to our week long analysis of this matchup. The Patriots have played a bend and do not break style of defense in previous seasons including ones that saw them win the SB. We do not see McCown being successful enough at exploiting these gaps in the Patriots defense.
The Jets will not have an answer for Gronkowski and would not be surprised at all to see him grab more than 10 receptions. These plays are essentially run plays in the Patriots offensive game plan. Gronk can line up anywhere on the field and you will see him near the sidelines to spread the field and open up the A and B running gaps.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 23-4 ATS hitting 85% winners and has made $1,860 per $100 wagered on each game since 1983. Play on road favorites (NEW ENGLAND). Excellent passing team averaging 255 or more passing yards/game. And after allowing 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games. Here is a second data query that has produced a 30-7 ATS mark good for 81% winners and has made $2,230 per $100 wagered on each game. Play on road teams (NEW ENGLAND). With a struggling defense allowing 385 or more total yards/game. After allowing 400 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games.
The Patriots defense has allowed 400 or more yards in three straight games. NFL teams with struggling defenses allowing 400 yards in three straight games are 86-53 ATS for 60% ATS winners. Adding in the parameter that the season-to-date allowed yards exceeds 350 yards per game produces a very nice 30-7 ATS for 81% ATS winners. The Patriots are 9-4 ATS after allowing 400 or more yards in three straight games. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Patriots.
|
|||||||
10-14-17 | Navy +3.5 v. Memphis | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Navy (193) Start Time: Week 7 Saturday, 10/14/2017 3:45 PM SIM grading: 7 stars Recommended Strategy: Wager a 7* amount on the line with Nay. Line currently at +3 ½ .
Alternate wager is play a 5* amount on the line and then add a 2* play using the money line; as long as the money line is returning +135 or higher value.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 32-8 hitting 80% ATS winners and has made $2,320 per $100 wagered game since 2014. Play against any team (MEMPHIS). Is a good team outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game. After allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Navy is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when they gain 150 or less net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. Navy is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games when they allow 150 to 200 rushing yards. Navy is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) when they rush for 300 or more yards over the last 3 seasons. Navy is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Navy Midshipmen.
|
|||||||
10-14-17 | Auburn -7 v. LSU | Top | 23-27 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Auburn (207) Start Time: Week 7 Saturday, 10/14/2017 3:30 PM SIM grading: 7 stars Recommended Strategy: Play Auburn on the line for a 7 star amount. DSo, if you wager $100 per star unit, then this is a $700 play.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 78-24 hitting 77% winners and has made $5,280 units wagering $100 per release since 2008. The system has also averaged an impressive . Play on a road team using the money line (AUBURN). That are excellent offensive teams gaining a minimum of 440 YPG. Against a good offensive team allowing between 390 to 440 YPG. And after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LSU is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) in home games when they allow 22 to 28 points since 1992. The average score was LSU 38.6, OPPONENT 25.0 LSU is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) when they allow 150 to 200 rushing yards since 1992. The average score was LSU 26.6, OPPONENT 23.7 LSU is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) in home games when they score 22 to 28 points since 1992. The average score was LSU 25.0, OPPONENT 10.0 LSU is 10-27 ATS (-19.7 Units) in home games when they commit 2 turnovers since 1992. The average score was LSU 24.0, OPPONENT 17.5 Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Auburn Tigers.
|
|||||||
10-14-17 | Toledo -7 v. Central Michigan | Top | 30-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Toledo (123) Start Time: Week 7 Saturday, 10/14/2017 3:30 PM SIM grading: 7 stars Recommended Strategy: Place a 7 star amount using the line on Toledo.
Round Table Discussion Points Toledo Senior WR, Cody Thompson suffered a broken leg and it is expected to cost him the remainder of the season in last week’s win over Eastern Michigan. He led the team in receptions in 2016 and was leading the team again in 2017 with 28 receptions for 537 yards and 4 TD.
Toledo is a high -power offense type team and we fully expect the ‘Next Man Up’ to fill the gaps left by the season ending injury to Thompson. Toledo ranks 29th in the nation scoring 35.2 PPG, 15th gaining 492.5 YPG, 8th gaining 9.2 yards per pass. CMU defense ranks 71st allowing 30 PPG, 91st allowing 42% third-down conversions, and 101st allowing 207.6 RYPG.
On the other side of the ball the advantages that Toledo will enjoy in this matchup are clear. CMU ranks 100th scoring 22 PPG, 105th converting just 32% of their third down conversions, and 128th in red zone scoring.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone hitting winners and has made units/unit wagered since . The system has also averaged an impressive . The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toledo is a solid 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points. Toledo is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt. Toledo is 96-40 ATS (+52.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points. CMU is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. CMU is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points. CMU is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by 1 to 1.5 yards/play Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Toledo.
|
|||||||
10-13-17 | Clemson -23 v. Syracuse | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Clemson (109) Start Time: Week 7 Friday, 10/13/2017 7:00 PM SIM grading: 7 stars (1 to 10 ranking scale) Recommended Strategy: Place a 7 star amount using the line on Clemson. So, if you wager $100 per star unit, then this would be a $700 play. In similar fashion, if you wager $10 per star unit, this is a $70 play. If you wager $500 per 7* graded play, then you wager $71.42 per star.
Round Table Discussion Points The biggest question this week surrounding No. 2 Clemson as it prepared for tonight’s game at Syracuse is whether their starting quarterback Kelly Bryant will be healthy enough to return to the lineup after sustaining an ankle injury last week in the Tigers' 28-14 win against Wake Forest. The answer is that it is highly probable that he will return to action tonight. And it really doesn’t matter. If Bryant is unable to go, the starting nod is likely to fall to freshman Hunter Johnson, who was rated the nation's top prep quarterback in 2016 by ESPN. Johnson guided the Tigers for their final three offensive series last week and completed all five of his passes for 42 yards and a touchdown.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Syracuse is just 38-92 ATS (-63.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points. Syracuse is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 points. Syracuse is 21-49 ATS (-32.9 Units) when they rush for 100 to 150 yards. Syracuse is 18-34 ATS (-19.4 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points. Syracuse is 11-28 ATS (-19.8 Units) when they gain 4.5 to 5 total yards per play. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Clemson Tigers. |
|||||||
10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Carolina (104) Start Time: 8:25 PM ET SIM grading: 7 stars Recommended Strategy: Play a 7 star wager amount on Carolina using the line.
Round Table Discussion Points
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following data query has gone 35-11 ATS hitting 76% winners winners and has made $2,290 per $100 wagered since 2014 Play against underdogs or pick (PHILADELPHIA). After allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Carolina is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Carolina is a solid 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in home games when facing excellent offensive teams averaging 375 or more yards/game. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Carolina Panthers. |
|||||||
10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +4 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Chicago Bears Start Time: 8:30 PM ET SIM grading: 7stars Recommended Strategy: Play a 7* amount using the line on the Bears.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 82-83 for just 50% winners using the money line, BUT has made $6,080 wagering just $100 per game since 1983. The system has also averaged an impressive +175 dog play. Play against road favorites using the money line. After allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. And now facing an opponent after a loss by 14 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Bears are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. Bears are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 2 seasons.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Chicago Bears. |
|||||||
10-08-17 | Packers +2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Green Bay Start Time: Sunday, October 8, 4:25 PM ET SIM grading: 7 stars Recommended Strategy: Play a 7* amount on the Green Bay Packers. So, if you wager $100 per star unit, this would be a $700 wager.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 31-7 ATS hitting 82% winners and has made $2,330 per $100 wager since 1983. Play on any team, road or home. After leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. And is now facing an opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Green Bay is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons. Garrett is 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) in home games vs. poor passing defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Green Bay Packers.
|
|||||||
10-08-17 | Bills +3 v. Bengals | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 45 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Buffalo Start Time: Sunday, October 8, 1:00 SIM grading: 7 stars Recommended Strategy: Play a 7* amount on the line with the Bills.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 36-13 ATS hitting 83% winners and has made $2,170 per $100 wager since 1983. Play against home favorites. After allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in their last game. And is now facing an opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Lewis is just Lewis is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) after a 2 game road trip. Lewis is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game. Taylor is a solid 7-2 ATS facing vs. passing defenses allowing 4.3-6.3 passing yards/att.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Buffalo Bills. |
|||||||
10-07-17 | Alabama v. Texas A&M +27 | Top | 27-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Texas A&M (410) Start Time: Week 6 Saturday, 10/7/2017 7:15 PM SIM grading: 7 stars Recommended Strategy: Wager a 7* amount on Texas A&M using the line. Optional strategy to is to add a 2* amount on Texas A&M using the money line.
Round Table Discussion Points How do you get in front of the Tide as they have been rolling in 2017? Alabama brings a stout defense and an opportunistic offense into this one and is the number one team in the land. The tide has also won 4 in a row in this series both straight up and against the spread. However, this will be the largest number in those 4 years and at this number would not have had one ATS win. Last year’s game was a dogfight until the Aggies wore down and the Alabama defense took over. This Aggies get this one in College Station which should help Freshman QB Kellen Mond, along with a bruising running game to help move the chains and provide some rest for the defense. Texas A&M defense is not Alabama, but has some big playmakers and is plus 8 in Turnovers on the year. We feel the line is too large and asking too much of Jalen Hurt and the Tide offense to cover on the road. Look for a competitive game again this year and for Texas A&M to easily cover this inflated number.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 27-6 ATS hitting 82% winners and has made $2,040 per $100 wagered since 1992. Play on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points. After 2 or more consecutive straight up wins. And is winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season. Saban is just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) facing mistake free teams that have 42 or less penalty yards per game as the coach of Alabama. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Texas A&M.
|
|||||||
10-07-17 | LSU +2 v. Florida | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: LSU Start Time: Week 6 Saturday, 10/7/2017 3:30 PM SIM grading: 7* SIm Titan Recommended Strategy: Play a 7* amount on LSU. If you wager $100 per ‘star’ unit, then this is a $700 wager. An alternate strategy is to wager a 5* amount on the line and a 2* amount using the money line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 48-19 ATS hitting 72% winners and has made $2,710 per $100 wager since 1992. Play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3. After going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game. In the first half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LSU is a solid 103-54 ATS (+43.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points. LSU is 20-4 ATS (+15.6 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play. LSU is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the LSU Tigers.
|
|||||||
10-07-17 | West Virginia v. TCU -13 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: TCU (388) Start Time: Week 6 Saturday, 10/7/2017 3:30 PM SIM grading: 10* Titan Recommended Strategy: Wager a 10* amount on TCU minus the points. So, if you wager $100 per ‘star’ unit playm this would be a $700 wager.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points TCU is a solid 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt. TCU is 110-44 ATS (+61.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points. WVU is an imperfect 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games facing excellent kickoff coverage teams, allowing 19 or fewer yards per return. WVU is just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) vs. good offensive teams scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. TCU is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games after a bye week. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board TCU.
|
|||||||
10-07-17 | Ole Miss v. Auburn -22.5 | Top | 23-44 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 10 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: 406 Auburn Start Time: 10-7-2017 12;00 PM SIM grading: 7* wager Recommended Strategy:
Round Table Discussion Points Ole Miss travels back to the state of Alabama after getting taken out to the woodshed by Alabama and we look for a similar result here. The Rebel offense will face another top tier defense this week and the Auburn offense led by Jarred Stidham is starting to roll. Stidham is completing 72%of his passes and has a strong running game to keep the offense balanced. Auburn has put away its last 2 opponents early and we look for more of the same today. Take Auburn and lay the points.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 40-14 ATS hitting 74% winners and has made 24.6units/unit wagered since 1992. Play on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points. After 2 straight wins by 21 or more points. Against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game.
Defense Data Query Play any team allowing 14 or less points the last 2 games. Facing a team allowing 37 or more points the last game 65% winners last 10 years
Here is another data query that has gone 15-7 ATS and 21-1 SU in the SEC since 1984. Play against team allowing 37 points last game. Facing a team winning 2 straight games by 28 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Auburn is 8-1 when scoring 28 or more points the last 2 years Malzahn is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of Auburn. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Auburn Tigers. |
|||||||
10-07-17 | Penn State -14 v. Northwestern | Top | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: The Play: Penn State (331) SIM grading: 7 stars Recommended Strategy: Wager a 7* amount on Penn State on the line. For example, a $100 per ‘star’ player would make a $700 play on Penn State.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following data query has gone 60-24 ATS hitting 71.4% winners and has made $3,360 per $100 wager since 2008. Play on road favorites in a conference matchup. That are Excellent rushing team gaining at least 4.8 YPR. And is now facing a poor rushing team gaining 3 to 3.5 YPR. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU is 40-17 ATS (+21.3 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt. PSU is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. PSU is 35-9 ATS (+25.1 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points. PSU is 59-13 ATS (+44.7 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play. PSU is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons. NWU is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by 2 to 2.5 yards/play. NWU is just 9-41 ATS (-36.1 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 2 or more yards/play. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Penn State.
|
|||||||
10-05-17 | Patriots -4.5 v. Bucs | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on New England (303) as they take on Tampa Bay in NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by at least 8 points.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 24-5 ATS hitting 83% winners and has made 18,5 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play on road favorites. Excellent passing team averaging 255 or more passing yards/game. After allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games.
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. Patriots are 40-17 ATS (+21.3 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game. Patriots are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the last 2 seasons. Belichick is 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6 yards/play.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Patriots. |
|||||||
10-02-17 | Redskins v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 20-29 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the Kansas City Chiefs (280) as they take on Washington in NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that KC will win this game by more than 9 points. For those that love playing money lines, the line is looking a bit cheap currently at -280. So, that too is an attractive, yet far more riskier wager based on ROI analysis.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following data query has gone 19-7 ATS for 73% winners and 24-3 SU since 1989. Play against road dogs. That are off a home dog SU win covering by 20 or more points. That are winning record teams. That are now taking to ther road installed as dogs. And Facing an opponent that has a winning record on the season.
The spreadsheet shown above displays all of the query results since 1989. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Kansas City Chiefs.
|
|||||||
10-01-17 | Bills +8 v. Falcons | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Buffalo (267) as they take on Atlanta in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot to win this game. Play a 7* wager using the line OR Play a 5* wager using the line and a 2* wager using the money line.
Round Table Discussion Points
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 60-27 ATS hitting 69% winners and has made 30.3 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play on road teams (BUFFALO). Team is off 1 or more straight ‘overs’. Team is averaging just 17 or less points/game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Atlanta is just 13-32 ATS (-22.2 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. Matt Ryan is 7-15 ATS as a home favorite of -4 ½ to -11 points. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Bills and look for the shocking upset win. |
|||||||
09-30-17 | South Carolina v. Texas A&M -7.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 168 Texas A&M -89-30-2017 7:30 PM 7 Units Texas A&M -8 versus South Carolina Round Table Discussion Points We feel South Carolina is not as good as their 3-1 record. The Gamecocks came from behind last week to beat Louisiana Tech 17-16 and have a struggling offense. Texas A7M did the same last week coming back to beat Arkansas by 7 in overtime. The Aggies did put up 50 points in that game. Kevin Sumlin needs to keep winning to keep the Alums happy and the offense led by Kellen Mond has been clicking and the Aggies have some big play capabilities on defense. South Carolina has had numerous injuries and lost their best offensive weapon Deebo Samuel last week for the season. This is an offense that struggles and we don’t see them keeping pace with the Aggies today. Texas A&M won the last 3 against South Carolina and we look for a fourth today. Take Texas A&M and lay the 8 points
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone hitting winners and has made units/unit wagered since . The system has also averaged an impressive . 3 Strong Data Trends on the Aggies in this one. Texas A&M is 107-58 when scoring 28 or more points since 1992. South Carolina is 24-73 when allowing 28 points. South Carolina is 5-17 when outgained by 100 to 150 yards since 1992. South Carolina is just 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Texas A&M.
|
|||||||
09-30-17 | Mississippi State v. Auburn -8 | Top | 10-49 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 190 Auburn -99-30-2017 6:00 PM 4 Units Auburn -9 Versus Mississippi State Round Table Discussion Points Mississippi State comes into this game taking a conference loss at Georgia last week 31-3 and now must face another strong defense again this week. Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham is starting to get comfortable with Gus Malzahn’s playbook, Stidham is completing a little over 70% on his attempts and today gets to play a big game in front of the Tiger faithful. The Tigers defense is stout against both the run and pass. Last year Auburn went to Starkville and won 38-14 jumping out to a 35-0 lead before putting it in cruise control. The personnel is similar and now the Tigers get the Bulldogs at home. The Bulldogs offense struggled at Georgia last week and we look for more of the same this week. Big expectations for Auburn this year and the Tigers look to go 2-0 in conference play today. Take Auburn and lay the 9 points
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points Play on any team allowing 17 points or less in last 2 games versus opponent scoring 6 or less in last game. 16 -4 ATS last 5 years good for 80% winners.
The average cover has been by 13.7 PPG. The four losses show that only one lost the game SU.
Matching SIM data queries Mississippi State is 28-47 ATS after scoring 14 or less in previous game since 1992 Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Tigers. |
|||||||
09-30-17 | South Florida -21 v. East Carolina | Top | 61-31 | Win | 100 | 3 h 42 m | Show |
117 South Florida -23 9-30-2017 12:00 PM 7 Units South Florida -23 at East Carolina Some strong data trends on South Florida in this one. ECU is 2-11 when allowing 28 or more points the last 2 years ECU is 0-6 against opponents scoring over 31 points per game the last 2 years.
Play on road teams off a home win with 4 or more starters and experience QB against team with new QB is 47-18 ATS last 5 years.
Round Table Discussion Points Along with the strong trends we get a South Florida team who has their sights on an undefeated season and a big Bowl Game this year. Charlie Strong inherited a team with a top notch defense and an explosive QB in Quinton Flowers. The Bulls return 16 starters from last year’s 9-2 Bowl Team. Last year South Florida won 38-22 and the Bulls are much better while the Pirates are allowing 48 points per game. The Bulls only let up 17 points per game and the offense is balanced with both the run and pass and a very athletic QB. This is a team who can line up against any of the power-5 schools and we get them against a bad team today. Take South Florida -23 as the Bulls will be running today.
|
|||||||
09-29-17 | USC v. Washington State UNDER 62 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
The Play and How to Play it: 7* graded play on the ‘UNDER’ in the Washington State (112) - SOuthern Cal PAC-12 showdown set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 60 points will be scored in this game.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The ‘under’ has been a great money winner in the role where Wash State finds themselves tonight. Teams that have scored 40 or more points in three straight games and are now lined as home dogs facing a strong opponent that allowed 14 or fewer points in their last game have gone 7-0 ‘UNDER’ since 2006. The ‘under’ has gone under the total by an average of 12.4 points.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘UNDER’
|
|||||||
09-24-17 | Giants +6 v. Eagles | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the NY Giants as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC East action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The recommended play is to make a 7* wager on the line. An optional wager is to make a 5* play using the line and then a 2* wager using the money line. Round Table Discussion Points Eli Manning has consistently targeted his TE, Engram’s way through the first two weeks, targeting him a total of 12 times, tied for ninth most in the league among tight ends. The rookie could potentially have a tough matchup this week, coming up against linebacker Jordan Hicks. However, Hicks has had a surprisingly slow start to his third season, currently grading as the second worst linebacker in the league among 78 qualifying linebackers. The key matchup, though, will be Odell Beckham, Jr. against Rasul Douglas or Jalen Mills, who are both rookie corners. Douglas is the better of the two through two weeks, so look for the Giants to force the matchup onto Jalen Mills. Whether ODB is 80% or not, any rookie corner is going to be overwhelmed by his athleticism and size. The fact that ODB is even on the field presents significant matchup problems for the Eagles. This will open up better opportunities for Eli to target his TE, which will open up the gaps in the running game too. Giants have not been able to rush the ball or even establish the run since they have fallen behind in each of their first two games. However, teams that have rushed for 99 or less yards in two straight games are a solid 35-24 ATS for 59% winners since the start of the 2016 season. In NFC East games only, these teams are a perfect 3-0 ATS.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points Giants are 0-2 and in full desperation mode. Making matters worse is that they now find themselves on the road against a division foe in a very, very hostile environment. As a rule that we are taught as young children, never approach a wounded animal and this is certainly the case in this matchup. In the NFC, since 2006 season, these matchups have seen the 0-2 loser go 8-2 SU and 8-2 ATS for 80% winners. When these wounded animals take to the road , they are 5-1 ATS and SU since 2006. Since, 1989, these traveling winless teams have gone 13-9 SU and 14-8 ATS. As you can see from the data above, the times that these dogs don’t come through, they are absolutely destroyed. In 2013, the Giants were destroyed 38-0 and were installed as 1 ½ point favorites.
There is more data that supports a strong effort from the Giants. They are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Giants.
|
|||||||
09-23-17 | Penn State -11 v. Iowa | Top | 21-19 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 10* graded play on Penn State as they take on Iowa in BIG Ten Conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will win this game by more than 14 points.
Round Table Discussion Points Sometimes the matchup is Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley trying to beat a loaded up box through the air, but this one is all about if the Hawkeyes can slow down or stop No. 26 in white. Even when holes haven’t there for Barkley he has simply burned team through the air, hauling in 11 catches for 241 yards and two touchdowns so far. Iowa will just not be able to contain all of the PSU offensive weapons for the entire game. The PSU offensive line has been fantastic as well in all types of formations. If Iowa does load the box, look for Barkey to come out of the backfield and line up in the slot before the snap (late in the time clock). Iowa will have no choice, but to have a LB on him. Causing added confusion for Iowa, is if they want to use a safety to help to double Barkley, the middle of the field will be vast plain of open area for crossing routes with the TE and WR. As the metrics show, there is only a minimal chance that this Iowa defense could hold PSU to fewer than 28 points.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when they gain 8.5 to 9 net passing yards/attempt. PSU is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. PSU is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points over the last 3 seasons. PSU is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 total yards per play. PSU 59-13 ATS (+44.7 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play. PSU is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons. Iowa is just 19-64 ATS (-51.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points. Iowa is 3-24 ATS (-23.4 Units) when they allow 35 to 41. Iowa is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. Iowa is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt. Iowa is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 rushing yards per attempt. Iowa is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games when they score 15 to 21 points. Iowa is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 total yards per play. Iowa is 8-27 ATS (-21.7 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play. Iowa is 2-16 ATS (-15.6 Units) in home games when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards. Iowa is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by 2 to 2.5 yards/play. Iowa is 4-28 ATS (-26.8 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 2 or more yards/play.
PSU has scored 50+ points in 2 of their first three games and now find themselves installed as double digit favorites on the road against an undefeated host. Teams in this role are a perfect 13-0 and 10-3 ATS, and 9-4 ‘UNDER’ over the past 2 seasons.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Penn State.
|
|||||||
09-23-17 | Mississippi State v. Georgia -3 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Georgia (324) as they take on Mississippi State in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by at least 10 points.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 78-18 hitting 81% winners using the money line and has made 38 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against road underdogs using the money line. Off a home win by 17 points or more. In the first month of the season. After closing out last season strong with 2 or more straight wins. M-State is coming off a huge epoch win destroying then ranked LSU as 8.5 point dogs. In SEC play, these types of emotional wins do not follow through into the next game, especially when it’s on the road. Teams in this role and installed as 3 point or more road warriors are just 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in SEC action. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Bulldogs of Georgia.
|
|||||||
09-23-17 | Alabama v. Vanderbilt +19.5 | Top | 59-0 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Vanderbilt (380) as they take on Alabama in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Vanderbilt will lose this game by fewer than 17 points.
7* amount using the line, which is currently at 18.5 points. 2* using the money line, which is averaging about +825 at majority of books offering this opportunity.
This is 9* amount of risk, but it is well defined and disciplined. The combination of the two parts reflects an optimized ROI.
Round Table Discussion Points Every season, there is that one game where my technology will identify a DOG of greater than 17 points and by some terrestrial act, they end up up pulling off the epoch upset. The problem is that I don’t believe there ever will be a technology that will be able to accurately identify these games. If there was, then why would we watch this game or any sporting event as it is the thrill of the unknown that brings such great passion to live sporting events. I am very confident, though, that Vanderbilt will give Alabama a true test. Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, Vanderbilt is today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit say 62%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.
We have a large set of data queries that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons. So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 39-10 hitting 80% winners and has made 28 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points. After 2 or more consecutive straight up wins. And has a winning record on the season.
Since the start of the 2013 season, this data query has produced a 7-2 ATS mark good for 78% winners with an average cover of 8.4 points. In 2016, it went 3-1 ATS with TWO straight up winners. The upset alert dogs that pulled off the upset win last year was first Penn State, who had the miracle win over Ohio State installed as 18 point home dogs and won the game 24-21. The second game was when Houston hosted Louisville as 16 point dogs and destroyed them 36-10.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Vanderbilt.
|
|||||||
09-22-17 | Utah v. Arizona +3.5 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Arizona as they take on in action set to start at PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that will win this game.
The recommended play is to wager a 5* amount using the line and a 2* amount using the money line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 55-21 ATS hitting 72.4% winners and has made 32 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points. After a win by 17 or more points. And is now facing an opponent after scoring 42 points or more last game.
In 2014, the query went 12-9 SU and a solid 16-5 ATS for 76.2% ATS winners and an average coverage of 8.2 points. In 2015, the query produced a 11-15 SU mark and went 19-7 ATS good for 65.4% ATS winners with the average ATS coverage of 5.4 points. In 2016, this query produced a SU mark of 7-13 and a very strong 15-5 ATS good for 75% ATS winners with an average coverage of of 3.7 points.
In all of PAC-12 action since 2012, the query has produced a 6-14 SU mark, but has been a money maker with a 15-5 ATS mark. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Arizona. |
|||||||
09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers +3 | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers (302) as they take on the Los Angeles Rams in NFL Thursday Night football action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that San Fran will win this game. Make a 7* wager getting the points on SF. Combination wager consisting of a 5* play on the line and a 2* play using the money line. Optional: Make a 3* reverse parlay wager using the line and the ‘OVER’.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 34-11 ATS hitting 76% winners and has made 22.0 units/unit wagered since the beginning of the 2008 season. Of the 45 games played, 60% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points and under scores the upset potential for the 49ers. Play on any team. After scoring 9 points or less in 2 straight games.
The spreadsheet above is displaying the last 5 seasons of results for the data query. Over the past 5 seasons, it has produced a 10-4 SU mark, 11-3 ATS mark, and a 10-4 ‘OVER’ mark. The average SU margin has been 4.86 points and the average spread cover has been by 7.8 points and the total points has covered the ‘over’ by an average of 9.3 points.
Rams find themselves installed as a modest favorite for the third straight game. The Rams are an imperfect 0-5 ATS in this role coming off a home loss. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the 49ers and the other recommended wagers. |
|||||||
09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants UNDER 42 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play ‘UNDER’ in the MNF game between the Giants and the Lions set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 40 points will be scored in this game.
We are releasing this play late to give you the best intelligence on the status of ODB. He is probable to play and we expect the ‘total’ to move a point higher in the next few hours leading up to game time. We recommend waiting to about 30 minutes before game time and placing your wager then. If the line does move, then there will be a wave of under best in that last 30 minutes as the ‘pro’ bettors square up positions. The following system has gone 23-5 ‘under’ hitting 82% winners and has made 17.5 units/unit wagered since 1983. Play ‘under’ with any team against the total. In the first 2 weeks of the year. After closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses. And in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Giants are 25-45 ATS ‘Under’ since 1992 when they have allowed 5.0 to 5.5 yards per play. Giants are 7-1 ‘under’ when they allow an opponent to gain fewer than 75 rushing yards. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘UNDER’
|
|||||||
09-17-17 | Redskins v. Rams -2.5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the RAMS (282) as they take on the Redskins in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Rams will win this game by more than 6 points.
Round Table Discussion Points
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 38-5 hitting 88% winners and has made 32.5 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play against road teams using the money line. Off a home loss by 10 or more points. And now facing an opponent off a home win. These road money burners have gone just 17-25-1 ATS for 40% winners.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Rams. |
|||||||
09-17-17 | Eagles v. Chiefs OVER 47 | Top | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play ‘OVER’ in the Philadelphia Eagles - KC Chiefs matchup set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that will win this game.
Round Table Discussion Points Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles travel to Arrowhead to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs come off a big win in New England while the Eagles beat the Redskins in the opener. The Chiefs lost all pro safety Eric Berry last week to injury and the Eagles should be able to move the ball through the air. The Eagles also lost cornerback Ronald Darby to an already weak secondary. Both teams bring the ability to make big plays with their special teams. This game sets up nicely for both offenses and we look for some points to be put up on the scoreboard in Kansas City, Sunday afternoon.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points Supporting the passing attacks in this matchup are the strong running games. The chiefs gained 185 rushing yards in their upset win over the Patriots in Week 1. We expect them to gain 150 more rushing yards in this matchup today. The following data shows the results of games played by the Chiefs after gaining 150 or more rushing yards and then gaining 150 or more in the next game. Since 1980, the Chiefs are 31-7 SU and 29-8-1 ATS and 23-14 ‘over’ in this rushing situation. Since Andy Ried arrived in KC at the start of the 2011 season, the Chiefs have gone 5-2 ‘over’ and have cashed the last four ‘over’ tickets.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘OVER’ in this matchup. |
|||||||
09-16-17 | Texas v. USC OVER 67.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on ‘OVER’ TEXAS - USC (202) in NCAAF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that 70 or more points will be scored in this game.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 25-4 ‘over’ hitting 86% winners and has made 20.6 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play ‘Over’ with all teams. Where the total is between 63.5 and 70. After allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. And now facing an opponent after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Texas is a solid 14-3 OVER (+10.7 Units) when they allow 550 or more total yards
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘OVER’.
|
|||||||
09-16-17 | Oregon v. Wyoming +14 | Top | 49-13 | Loss | -107 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Wyoming (186) as they take on Oregon in NCAAF action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oregon will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and can possibly pull off the home upset.
The recommended strategy is to place a 7* amount on the line and then add a 2.5* amount using the money line. We also like playing ‘over’ the first half total for a 3* amount. If you want to add more defined risk, then consider playing a reverse parlay with Wyoming on the money line and the ‘over’ and Wyoming plus the points and the ‘over’ for 1* each.
Round Table Discussion Points The Wyoming Cowboys comes off an easy win against Gardner & Webb while the Oregon Ducks beat the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Eugene last week. The Ducks took a big lead into the locker room at halftime and did not show up in the second half, but still held on to beat the Cornhuskers. Wyoming played a tough road game to begin the season at Iowa and struggled against the physical Hawkeye defense. The Cowboys stop troops have played well this year and can limit the big play capabilities of the Oregon offense. Future pro QB Josh Allen should find the sledding a little easier against the Oregon defense. Big game in Laramie for the Cowboys and we look for Allen to make enough plays to keep this one close throughout. Take Wyoming and the generous amount of points.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics The games shown above are when Oregon has allowed their opponent to score 28 or more points since the 2015 season inclusive. In these games, they have gone just 4-8 SU and a miserable money burning 2-9-1 ATS. The ‘over’ has been a successful wager going 7-4-1. So, the Bayesian probability analyses overwhelmingly project that Wyoming will score 28 points and with potential to achieve that level before the end of the first half.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 23-11 using the Money Line hitting 68% winners and has made 22.4 units/unit wagered since 2013. The system has also averaged an impressive +145 dog play. Play on a home team using the money line. After allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game. And is now facing an opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Wyoming Cowboys.
|
|||||||
09-16-17 | LSU -7 v. Mississippi State | Top | 7-37 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on LSU (187) as they take on Mississippi State in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that LSU will win this game by at least 11 points.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 55-21 hitting 72.4% winners and has made 31.9 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play on road favorites. After allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games. And facing an opponent where 60 total points or more were scored in their last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LSU is a solid 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) when they rush for 250 to 300 yards. LSU is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt. LSU is 103-53 ATS (+44.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points. LSU is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards. M-State is just 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 points. M-State is 9-27 ATS (-20.7 Units) when they allow 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt. M-State is 7-32 ATS (-28.2 Units) when they allow 500 or more total yards. M-State is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 total yards per play. M-State is 10-44 ATS (-38.4 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the LSU Tigers.
|
|||||||
09-16-17 | Oklahoma State v. Pittsburgh OVER 63.5 | Top | 59-21 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play taking the ‘OVER’ in the Oklahoma State at Pittsburgh matchup set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 65 points will be score in this game. Make a 7* wager using the total line, which is at 63 ½ currently.
Round Table Discussion Points Look to go over the total in this one the high scoring Cowboy offense led by Mason Rudolph is putting up big numbers in 2017 very similar to 2016. Last year these teams combined for 83 points and we look for more of the same today. The Cowboys averaged 37 points per game last year and have scored 51 per game this year. Big play receiver James Washington is off to another strong start with 243 yards and 3 Touchdowns in 2 games and the Cowboys have a full stable of receivers for Rudolph. Oklahoma State also has a stable of running backs averaging close to 250 yards per game. The Panthers will need to take some risks defensively today and can lead to big plays for both sides. Pitt is replacing some big weapons offensively but can move the ball, the panthers offense should find playing against the Cowboy defense a lot friendlier than what they faced in State College last week against Penn State. We think Pitt can put up some points but can't see Pitt stopping Rudolph and the high flying Cowboy Offense. Look for another high scoring game in this contest this afternoon. Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 25-4 ‘over’ hitting 86% winners and has made 20.6 units/unit wagered since 2013. Play ‘Over’ with all teams. Where the total is between 63.5 and 70. After allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. And now facing an opponent after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. OKST is a solid 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. OKST is 32-12 OVER (+18.8 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘OVER’ in this matchup. |
|||||||
09-15-17 | UMass v. Temple -15 | Top | 21-29 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
The Play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Temple (106) as they take on UMASS in NCAAF action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. Make a straight 7* wager amount on Temple minus the points.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 35-10 hitting 80% winners and has made 28 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points. The team outscored opponents by 10 or more points/game Current game is a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UMASS is just 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) when they allow 28 or more points. UMASS is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) when they rush for 50 to 100 yards. UMASS is a near imperfect 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they rush for 2 to 2.5 yards per attempt. UMASS is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they gain less than 250 total yards. UMASS is an imperfect 0-15 ATS (-16.5 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards. Temple is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. Temple is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. Temple is 25-8 ATS (+16.2 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards. Temple is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Temple is 12-0 ATS (+12.0 Units) when they score 42 to 48 points. Temple is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they allow less than 250 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Temple is 15-1 ATS (+13.9 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Temple Owls. |
|||||||
09-11-17 | Chargers v. Broncos OVER 42 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on ‘OVER’ the posted total in the MNF matchup between the Chargers and the Broncos set to start at 10:20 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 44 points will be scored.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 36-12 hitting 75% winners and has made 22.8 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play ‘over’ with any team. Where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. And is a solid offensive team from last season scoring 24 or more points/game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Denver is 25-12 OVER (+11.8 Units) the 1rst half total in home games when they rush for 75 to 100 yards. Denver is 175-50 ‘over’ when scoring 24 or more points. Denver is 105-29 ‘over’ in home games when scoring 24 or more points. Chargers are 91-24 ‘over’ when scoring 21 or more points in away gamnes.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘OVER’. |
|||||||
09-10-17 | Seahawks v. Packers -3 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 105 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
Team Analysis Seatlle- Seattle has a weakness in its O-line, but their skill players are what shows promise this season. QB Russell Wilson has developed solid in-the-pocket skills in a spread passing attack, while maintaining his ability to improvise on the move. WR Doug Baldwin can beat defenders in a number of ways, while TE Jimmy Graham still causes matchup problems. RB Thomas Rawls is a violent runner, while change-of-pace RB C.J. Prosise looked great in limited action as a rookie. The Seahawks gave up the third fewest points and the lowest yards per carry average in the league last season. Green Bay- Not much more I can say about Aaron Rodgers that you don’t already know. WR Jordy Nelson is nearly impossible to cover one-on-one, and Rodgers makes up for the lack of talent in the rest of his receiving group. RB Ty Montgomery impressed after moving from WR, but his durability is questionable and the Packers lack depth at RB. Two second-round picks, CB Kevin King and S Josh Jones, need to get up to speed quickly. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Morgan Burnett are a solid safety combo, but if the Packers can't cover, they'll be forced into many shootouts. Recent Trends Seattle Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Green Bay Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Head to Head Seahawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Green Bay. Personal Analysis Although the Seahawks play a better team on paper, something about Rodgers and his competitiveness seems to be concerning. Along with Rodgers comes the notorious Lambeau field lure. As you can see from the trends, it’s not looking too optimistic for the Seahawks. This should be a tight game early, but the Packers will come out on top and cover the spread. |
|||||||
09-10-17 | Colts v. Rams -4.5 | Top | 9-46 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on the LA Rams (472) as they take on the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1 NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Rams will win this game. If you like the money line play only, we have no issue with that strategy. Make certain you are risking a 7* amount, which at current money lines of -200 would be a wager risking 7* amount to make a 3.5* amount.
Round Table Discussion Points Not good numbers for either team in this one based on last year’s performance metrics. We like the fact that a much improved Rams defense will be going up against Scott Tolzien, who has not won a game in his career as a starter. Today we get to lay a field goal with a team, who has the better defense and offense against a team who will be without their QB field general today. This is the second year for Ram QB Jared Goff and we look for some major improvement this year. Also, Goff has additional playmakers to work with this season. Look for Todd Gurley to get off to a good start against the weak Colts defense front five. This in turn will force the Colts linebackers to creep closer to the LOS to cover the A and B gaps. Then, Goff, will have play action knowing his WR are in man coverage.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 48-20 using the money line hitting 71% winners and has made 25.3 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play against any team using the money line. Poor passing defense from last season that allowed 7 or more passing yards/attempt. In non-conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Pagano is just 2-8 against the money line (-8.4 Units) in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of the Colts. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Rams. |
|||||||
09-10-17 | Falcons v. Bears +7 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
7* graded play on the Chicago Bears (456) as they take on the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1 NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Bears will cover this number and may win this game. The recommended strategy is to make this release a combination wager using a 5* play on the line and a 2* play using the money line.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics We are expecting the Bears ground attack led by Howard to present quite a problem for the Atlanta defensive front. The SIm projects that the Bears will have at least 125 rushing yards. In past games where Atlanta allowed 125 or more rushing yards, they are 23-42 ATS since 1992 and 58-125-2 ATS since 1980. This situation is not exclusive to the Falcons, but it is one that applies to the majority of matchups in the NFL. Since the 2013 season, the Falcons are 5-10 ATS and 3-12 SU when allowing more than 150 rushing yards.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 22-4 ATS hitting 85% winners and has made 17.6 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play on any team team. That had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season. In conference matchups.. Super Bowl Losers have an extended hangover and the Falcons certainly should have that in place after their historic collapse. SB losers are just 5-12 SU and 2-15 ATS since 2000 season. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Bears.
|
|||||||
09-09-17 | Auburn +5.5 v. Clemson | Top | 6-14 | Loss | -112 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 10* graded play on Auburn (377) as they take on Clemson in NCAAF action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game. We see current lines at Clemson installed as a five point favorite. 67% of the best wagered are on Clemson, but the large bettors are on the Tigers as evident by the line moving lower from the -6 opening level. The analytics clearly show a high probability that this line will move to 4.5. The recommended strategy is to play a 5* amount on the line and a 2* play using the money line. The money line is currently at +170
Round Table Discussion Points Auburn comes into this game off an easy 41-7 game against Georgia Southern while Clemson was beating up Kent State 36-3. The Clemson Tigers return 12 starters from last years National Championship team with 7 on the defensive side of the Ball. Auburn returns 15 starters from last years 8-5 Bowl team. Clemson QB Kelly Bryant went 16/22 for 236 yards with a TD and an interception in his first start taking over for the dynamic Deshaun Watson. Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham struggled some in his first start for the Tigers after transferring from Baylor. Stidham went 14/24 for 185 yards with 2 TD’s and a pick. Both teams rushed the ball well last week and the defenses were stellar. Clemson beat Auburn by 6 last year at Auburn and we look for a very tight game again this year, but this time around there is no Deshaun Watson. This is a big early game for both teams and look for the offense minded Gus Malzahn to come up with a little more wrinkles to the offense and possibly even steal a game in Death Valley.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 40-11 hitting 78.4% winners and has made 28 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points. In the first month of the season. After closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. Team that had a winning record last season. This money line query has produced incredible results and underscores the probability that Auburn will win this game. It has produced a 19-7 mark and has made 25.8 units/unit wagered since 2013. It has averaged a quite impressive +173 Dog play. Play on a road team using the money line. After allowing 2 or less rushing yards/attempt last game. Facing an opponent that out rushed their last opponent by 200 or more yards. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Auburn is a solid 13-4 against the money line (+12.3 Units) when they rush for 5.5 to 6 yards per attempt Auburn is 39-8 against the money line (+36.4 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt. Auburn is 95-9 against the money line (+103.2 Units) when they score 28 or more point.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Auburn with the 6 points in this tightly contested affair.
|
|||||||
09-09-17 | Western Michigan v. Michigan State -7.5 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 30 h 15 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Michigan State (310) as they take on Western Michigan in NCAA action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.
Round Table Discussion Points The Spartans come into this one easily beating Bowling Green 35-10 last week, while Western Michigan lost a hard fought game last week in the Coliseum to Southern Cal. Western Michigan put up 31 points on USC rushing for 263 yards while giving 232 yards on the ground. Western Michigan QB Jon Wassink struggled in the passing game completing 50% of his passes for a mere 67 yards. Spartan QB Brian Lewerke went 22/33 for 250 yards and 3 Touchdowns. The Spartan defense held Bowling Green to 67 yards on the ground. This all brings us to the value in this pick as Western had a tough game last week and now go into East Lansing taking only a Touchdown. This line is based on records from last year as the wheels came off the bus for the Spartans after the Wisconsin Game while Western Michigan was having a special year going 13-1 and a major bowl game. This is now 2017 and the red faced Spartans will be hungry for this one and won't overlook the Broncos. Perfect set up here for Sparty.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 34-10 hitting 77% winners and has made 23 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points. In the first month of the season. After closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. Facing an opponent in the first month of the season. And the opponent closed out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. WMU is just 34-72 ATS (-45.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points. WMU is just 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards. MSU is a solid 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt. MSU is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when they rush for 6 or more yards per attempt. MSU is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games when they gain 450 to 500 total yards.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Spartans. |
|||||||
09-09-17 | Louisville -9.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 47-35 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Louisville (323) as they take on North Carolina in NCAAF action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Louisville will win this game by more than 10 points. Play a 7* amount using the line.
UNC is off an embarrassing home loss to California in Week1 losing 35-30 as 13 point favorites. Team that have had this type of demoralizing week 1 loss are just 3-22 SU and 8-17 ATS in week 2 games installed as 6.5 point or more dogs. A bonus play based on this query is to take Idaho as they host UNLV.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 31-6 ATS hitting 84% winners and has made 24.4 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against a home team. In the first month of the season or first four weeks. After closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. And is now facing an opponent that was a bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Louisville 106-55 ATS (+45.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points. Louisville is 41-19 ATS (+20.1 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards. UNC is a money burning 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games when they allow 29 to 35 points. UNC is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when they allow 8.5 to 9 net passing yards/attempt. UNC is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) in home games when they allow 150 to 200 rushing yards. UNC is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 total yards per play. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Louisville Cardinal.
|
|||||||
09-04-17 | Tennessee -3 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 42-41 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Tennessee (213) as they take on Georgia Tech in NCAAF action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. Play a 7* amount on the line currently at - 3 1/2 .
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 30-6 ATS hitting 83% winners and has made 23.4 units/unit wagered since 1992. 60% of the games played have covered the spread by 7 or more points and underscores the high probability that Tennessee will win this game vt more than 10 points. Play against any team in the first week of the season. After closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers. Team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%). Playing a team that had a winning record. The following game situations match the expected projections and outcomes compiled by the comprehensive research. 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt. 36-13 ATS (+21.7 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt. 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) when they rush for 6 or more yards per attempt. 109-48 ATS (+56.2 Units) when they score 28 or more points. 23-4 ATS (+18.6 Units) when they score 42 to 48 points. 42-12 ATS (+28.8 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards. 21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) when they gain 7.5 or more total yards per play. G-Tech is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) when they allow 550 or more total yards. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of machine learning ranging from combinatorial algorithms to decision trees and weighted simulations. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Volunteers.
|
|||||||
09-03-17 | Texas A&M +5 v. UCLA | Top | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Texas A&M (211) as they take on UCLA in NCAAF action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. Play a 7* amount on the line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone 39-11 ATS hitting 78% winners and has made 26.9 units/unit wagered since 1992. 41% of the games played have covered the spread by 7 or more points and underscores the high probability that A&M will win this game SU. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points. In the first month of the season. After closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. Team that had a winning record last season. The following game situations match the expected projections and outcomes compiled by the comprehensive research. UCLA is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they rush for 50 to 100 yards over the last 3 seasons. A&M is a strong 42-20 ATS (+20.0 Units) when they allow 50 to 100 rushing yards. Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of machine learning ranging from combinatorial algorithms to decision trees and weighted simulations. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Aggies.
|
|||||||
09-02-17 | Florida State +7 v. Alabama | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 15 m | Show |
Favoring The UnderDawg.
Everyone loves a games where two goliaths of college football face-off. Alabama is statistically one of the best dynasties ever in NCAA History, if not the best. While Florida State is always assembles a solid squad year after year. In this match up, there is many variables. Alabama is returning only 11 starters and Florida State is relying on their strong defense to carry the team in this game and throughout the regular season.
Alabama and other major schools are accustomed to simply reloading and the return of starters is not that critical unless they are facing a team like FSU. Alabama does get positive marks returning most of the skill positions, in Jalen Hurts, Bo Scarbrough, and Calvin Ridley. Bama’s defense is predicted to be top 10, per usual. What might hurt them is team chemistry during the first month of the season.
Florida State features one of the best defenses in their school history and one that the offense can feed off of. The offensive success will rely mostly on the new O-line protecting Deondre Francois. This O-line can run block with the best and you will see them push the ‘Bama D-Line back on their heels on the majority of plays. This is the crucial situation that will allow FSU to open up the run game and then use play action pass to elite and very fast WR that will be in man coverages.
This is the first time that a No. 1 ranked team will play a No. 3 ranked team this early in the season. So, there is little history to learn from that have similar characteristics. Bama will have to learn how to work together rapidly, as they play a whole new half of a team. While going up against a team that will most likely win the ACC Conference. Clemson is realistically the only team in the Conference that will give FSU any sort of test. |
|||||||
09-02-17 | Temple v. Notre Dame -18.5 | Top | 16-49 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
For one of our top plays this weekend we go to South Bend Indiana and our taking the Fighting Irish laying 18 points to the Temple Owls. We loved the game at the opening line under 2 TD’s, but the betting public has pushed this up to 18 points. Although Notre Dame comes off a 4-8 season losing their top Quarterback and many experts predicting a close outcome along with Temple coming off a 10-4 season going 12-2 ATS, you may ask how could the Irish be our top play? Several factors come into play on this one but the first is the leadership and news coming out of South Bend. Basically no news last year's team started with suspensions and issues with the players and was void any real leadership, basically all things are quiet and the expectations down for the Irish. The next matter is the Irish are loaded with talent and some of that is up front in the trenches. Next we see a lot of similarities to the 2013 game where Matt Rhule the ex Temple coach started his career at Temple and the Irish jumped out early and easily covered a similar type of spread putting up over 500 yards of Offense. New Temple head coach Geoff Collins is facing a similar situation losing a lot of Seniors especially on the defense and losing QB PJ Walker. Now the talent that Matt Rhule left is better than what he inherited. We still feel this is not the ideal situation for a young QB. Although the Owls only gave up 283 yards and 18 points per game many of those players are gone. Brandon Wimbush takes over an Irish offense that put up 31 points per game and 418 yards of offense. Wimbush has plenty of offense weapons from Running Back Josh Adams and leading receiver Equanimous St. Brown along with a full stable of running backs and receivers. The Irish although not deep up front have a lot more playmakers on defense this year. The Irish have strong Special teams this year which will also aid in this one. For halftime betters look for a favorable first half line as Notre Dame usually starts with the football. Take the Irish and lay the points today as we like Notre Dame to take the fight to the Cherry and the White. |
|||||||
08-26-17 | Oregon State +3.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 27-58 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
The play and how to Play it: 7* graded play on Oregon State (291) as they take on Colorado State in NCAAF action set to start at 2:30 PM ET. The recommended strategy is to wager a 5* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line to exploit the significant probability of an SU Oregon State win.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points The following system has gone hitting winners and has made units/unit wagered since . The system has also averaged an impressive . The following game situations match the expected projections and outcomes compiled by the comprehensive research. Oregon State is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt. Oregon State is 91-31 ATS (+56.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points. Oregon State 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they gain 400 to 450 total yard. Oregon State is 33-11 ATS (+20.9 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play. Colorado State 37-90 ATS (-62.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points. Colorado State 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) when they allow 6 or more rushing yards per attempt. Oregon State is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
Methodology Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of machine learning ranging from combinatorial algorithms to decision trees and weighted simulations. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Oregon State Beavers.
|
|||||||
02-05-17 | Patriots -3 v. Falcons | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 58 h 25 m | Show |
50* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Atlanta Falcons in 2017 Super Bowl action set to start at 6:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 7 or more points. We also like the adjusted spread of Patriots -10 ½ that currently pays 220/100 and Patriots -14 ½ that pays +450/100. So, make these prop adjusted line wagers no more than 20% of your normal wager on our plays. So, a $500 wager becomes a $100 wager for the prop bets. More prop bets: 1. Will the team that scores first win the game? NO pays +130 Obviously, we are playing for Atlanta to get out fast. 2. Total FG made Over 3 ½ -125 3. Patriots win by 11 to 13 +1100 4. Falcons lead at the Half and Patriots win + 350 5. Who will have more I.Thomas (Celtics) or Patriots total points. Patriots – ½ -105 6. Who will have more Celtics 1H points or L. Blount rushing yards. Blount -1 ½ -120 7. MVP – Chris Hogan at 30:1 Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-4 mark good for 90% winners and has made 30.2 units/unit wagered since 2006. Play on favorites vs. the money line (NEW ENGLAND) quick starting team outscoring opponents by 5+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are 41-16 ATS (+23.4 Units) when they rush for 125 to 150 yards Patriots are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Patriots are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 6 or more total yards per play this season. Patriots are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) facing below-average defensive teams allowing greater than 5.65 yards/play this season. Patriots are 18-1 against the money line (+14.9 Units) when they gain 6 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons. And here is the one major situation that also supported Denver last year in Super Bowl 50. Teams coming off any playoff game that scored 40 or more points are just 11-18 SU and 4-25 ATS in the next game in all playoff and SB games played since 1996. Fine tuning this a bit, we find these high-powered offenses come crashing to earth with a 1-7 SU and 1-7 ATS mark when scoring when scoring more than 40 points, ATS win, and zero TO since 2000. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Patriots. The Falcons were gashed for 208 rushing yards against the Eagles in Week 10 and then allowed more than 99 rushing yards in every game since. These yards were gained between the tackles and the Eagles exploited that weakness. In our opinion, it is very likely that the Patriots game plan will be to establish and dominate the line of scrimmage with a pounding rushing attack led by Blount and augmented by Lewis and others. This will then open up play action for Brady allowing him more than enough time to scan the field and identify the best opportunity and deliver accurately for big gains. This is where Chris Hogan may shine and has a shot at the MVP. He is a strong and big WR, who runs excellent routes on every down and creates space to receive the ball and then gain more yards after the catch. Of all the Patriots WR, he may be the one that creates the most space in his routes and is extremely smart after the catch. The Patriots defense gets hardly any real credit from the TV talking heads. In our opinion, there is no doubt that the Patriots defense will create major read issues for Ryan. Now, the expected game plan is that the mythical Belichick will design a scheme to take away Julio Jones. However, if you look at previous games this season, Antonio Brown and AJ Green had monster games, but their offenses still score less than 20 points. The Patriots rank second in the NFL this season in corner shadowing. This means that they allocate a corner to cover the same WR for the majority of the game. In this scheme, we think the surprise move will be to put Rowe on Jones. Butler has the elite speed, but not the size to cover Jones consistently, but using Rowe and then occasionally Butler will create that unpredictability that eliminates any OC to anticipate matchups in any down situation. The Patriots used the blitz on 25% percent of their opponents’ drop backs this season ranking 26th-highest rate in the league. But Belichick takes ‘not blitzing’ a step further by only rushing three defenders or fewer on 26% of their passing plays this season. That’s far and away an outlier in the NFL today with the Cowboys next closest, at 19%, and the majority of teams are under 10%. On first downs, New England used it 21% of the time and on every single down, except for fourth, they are more likely to rush three players than to blitz. The biggest single advantage in dropping eight into coverage is that it allows for a double team without eliminate the underneath coverage man that is present in a four-man rush. This also allows for one corner (Rowe) to man-up against Jones and the other 7 defenders in zone scheme. Last, this scheme takes away WR and RB screens from Atlanta’s play calling. Patriots allowed all of 77 yards on screen plays this year. The next closest team was the Buccaneers, at 164, and the league average was 315. |
|||||||
01-22-17 | Steelers v. Patriots -6 | Top | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
50* graded play on the New England Patriots (314) as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in AFC Conference Championship action set to start at 6:40 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 10 or more points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-8 mark good for 83% winners and has made 37.3 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play against road teams using the money line (PITTSBURGH) that are good passing teams averaging 6.7 to 7.3 PY/Attempt and is now facing an average passing defense allowing 5.9 to 6.7 PY/Attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. This is a money line system and I see no road blocks preventing anyone from playing a straight money line wager on the Patriots. The SIM projections essentially show that if the Patriots win the game they will also cover the spread. So, you could consider a combination wager using a 14* amount on the line and a 7* amount using the money line for a total of 21* amount. The reason it is 4* less, is to account for the increase vig using the money line and to optimize the ROI for the combination wager. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Pittsburgh is just 11-29 ATS (-20.9 Units) in road games when they allow 22 to 28 points NE is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons. NE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they rush for 3.5 to 4 yards per attempt over the last 2 seasons. NE is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons. NE is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) racing good offensive teams averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Patriots. Patriots’ defense ranks best in the NFL in scoring defense and best with a 0.25 points per play allowed ratio. They rank 9th in yards per play allowed, which reflects a bend and don’t break motif. This style of defense has served the Patriots quite well over the years. I do think they will bring more pressure on Roethlisberger early in this game to minimize the chances that Brown can execute vertical routes. Moreover, we believe that the Patriots defense will contain Bell and LB Hightower’s name is expected to be heard quite a bit from the announcers. We don’t need to get into the Patriots offensive scheme as they will have a great game plan in place that will attack all areas of the Steeler defense. We expect the Patriots to attack the perimeter early and often to loosen up the middle of the field. Once that occurs, Brady will look to his RB and WR in slants and crossing routes getting the ball to receivers in stride so that yards after the catch will be optimal. EXTRA Wagers: Play ‘NO’ that there will be three straight scores by the same team. -180 Shortest TD scored ‘OVER’ 1 ½ yards -105 Logan Ryan will intercept a pass +475 Total FG made 3 ½ ‘OVER’ -140 Longest FG made ‘UNDER’ 45 ½ -100 Patriots defense scores first +1800 (just have to play that one) |
|||||||
01-15-17 | Steelers +2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
25* graded play on Pittsburgh (305) as they take on Kansas City (306) in AFC Divisional Playoff action set to start at 1:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will win this game by more than four points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-12 ATS mark good for 74% winners since 2005. Play against favorites (KANSAS CITY) revenging a loss against opponent, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Pittsburgh is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points this season. Pittsburgh is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Pittsburgh is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) facing inconsistent defensive teams allowing more than 350 yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Pittsburgh is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Roethlisberger is 20-11 ATS in all games played over the last five seasons with lines ranging between -2.5 to 4.5. Fundamental Discussion Points This is a rematch of the Week 4 blowout Steeler win at Pittsburgh in Week 4. The teams are significantly different than that Week 4 game and most dominant change has been the development of Le’Veon Bell, who now can take over a game. The KC defense will face a monumental challenge to contain all of the Steeler weapons. Their ability to stop the best running back in the game will be a lot more difficult without the services of future Hall of Fame linebacker Derrick Johnson and starting interior defenders Jaye Howard and Allen Bailey, all of whom have been placed on IR since the first meeting. Pittsburgh running back Le’Veon Bell has been outrageous of late, generating 78, 139, 60, 88 and 110 yards after contact in his last five games, forcing 24 missed tackles during that time. On offense, KC has their own big-gun version Kelce, who is certainly a playmaker and game changer. He has accumulated 652 yards after the catch, which is more than all but 12 TE have in total receiving yards in the NFL. The Steelers defense has done extremely well in underneath man coverage situations, which would have a LB on Kelce. Further, the transition in ‘over-under’ coverages has been disguised pre-snap and Alex Smith will have to make incredibly fast reads downfield to locate the safety and if that safety is providing deep help in Kelce vertical routes. That hand-off in coverage between LB and safety occurs at 20 yards downfield and it is that precise timing that Smith will have the best opportunity to deliver the ball to Kelce in space. However, if Smith has to rely on this type of minutia detail to move the chains, it will be a very long day at Arrowhead. Take the Steelers. |
|||||||
01-15-17 | Packers v. Cowboys -5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
50* graded play on Dallas (308) as they take on Green Bay (307) in NFC Divisional Round Playoff action set to start at 4:40PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by more than 7 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a a 44-18 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 2010. Play on favorites (DALLAS) after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, with a winning record and with the game taking place in the second half of the season. Here is a money line system that has gone 34-2 for 94.4% winners and has made 30.4 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on home favorites of -160 to -475 using the money line (DALLAS) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread and with a winning record on the season playing another winning record team. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. · Dallas is a solid 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when they rush for 125 or more yards over the last 3 seasons. · Dallas is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they gain 6 or more total yards per play this season. · Dallas is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 total yards per play Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Dallas Cowboys. If you play Fantasy Football, definitely add Elliott to your team. It is not secret that the Cowboys front office and recent coaching and GM interviews have made it a point to say this is Elliotts’ time and he will be the dominant force in their offensive schemes and game plans. Ok, so if the Packers look to stop and contain Elliott, then they are exposed to the likes of Dez Bryant, Cole Beasely, Williams, and other weapons. Dak Prescott is a duel threat too, and with a make shift secondary, we do not see the Packers being able to stop the Cowboys. If Jordy Nelson was playing, then this matchup discussion would be a bit more evenly matched. However, what most observers do not know, is that the Cowboys have the number 1 ranked secondary in the NFL and this despite having a mediocre pass rush. So, the dominant edge goes to the expectations that a relatively-clean Aaron Rodgers cannot keep up with a Cowboys’ offense that is averaging the fifth-most yards per carry before contact facing a Green Bay defense surrendering the seventh-most yards per carry before contact. Take the Cowboys. |
|||||||
01-14-17 | Seahawks v. Falcons -5 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons (302) as they take on the Seattle Seahawks (301) in the NFC Divisional Round of playoff action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that will win this game.
Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Atlanta is 76-19 ATS (+55.1 Units) when they gain 8 or more net passing yards/attempt Atlanta is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when they gain 8.5 to 9 net passing yards/attempt Seattle is 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) when they allow 8.5 to 9 net passing yards/attempt Seattle is 17-58 ATS (-46.8 Units) when they allow 8 or more net passing yards/attempt. Here are the supporting systems for this Titan release on Atlanta. Play on any team vs the money line (ATLANTA) mistake-free team with less than 1.25 TO/game committed and is now facing a team averaging less than 1.25 TO/game forced, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.
Slicing this system to include only favorites produces a 62-9 record for 87% winners since 2005 good for 87% winners making 45.6 units/unit wagered averaging a -181 ML favorite wager. SIX Point TEASER Opportunity: Atlanta and Louisville in CBB
Play on any team in a 6-point teaser (ATLANTA) that is a mistake-free team averaging less than 1.25 TO/G committed and is now facing a team averaging less than 1.25 TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
The Falcons have the 6th best OL in the league supporting the 2nd best overall offense and best scoring offense at 33. . Moreover, they are playing at home with the week of rest. Matt Ryan is remarkably accurate and makes solid decisions under pressure. He is averaging a league-best 8.8 yards per pass attempt while the Seattle defense ranks 15th allowing 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Further, the Seattle defense is missing Earl Thomas and his replacement Terrell is simply making too many coverage mistakes. The Falcons feature Julio, but you will see two TE sets, where both TE run vertical routes and then send Jones underneath to vast open areas in the middle of the field. Seattle may be able to take that underneath route away, but then Ryan will know he has either TE in man coverage without safety help. Sounds like a perfect situation for big scoring plays. |
|||||||
01-09-17 | Clemson +6.5 v. Alabama | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
50* graded play on Clemson (151) as they take on Alabama (152) in the CFP National Championship set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, the one single requirements is that we need a +135 Money line to validate the ROI for the combination wager. If it is not at +135, then simply make a 25* wager using the line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-15 ATS mark good for 74% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ALABAMA) with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 5 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is a solid 17-6 against the money line (+12.7 Units) in road games when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards Clemson is 28-9 against the money line (+24.7 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play Alabama is just 16-22 against the money line (-20.4 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points Clemson is 12-1 against the money line (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Clemson is a near-perfect 10-1 against the money line (+9.7 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons. Clemson is 11-1 against the money line (+10.7 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons. Clemson is 12-1 against the money line (+11.7 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons. Clemson is 16-10 against the money line (+22.3 Units) versus excellent defensive teams - allowing =5.9 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. Clemson is 15-1 against the money line (+14.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons. Swinney is 17-3 against the money line (+14.1 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of Clemson. Swinney is 27-9 against the money line (+21.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play as the coach of Clemson. Clemson installed as a road dog has won four straight games and is 27-11 L38 situations. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Clemson Tigers. Clemson shutout Ohio State in their last game, which was a monumental feat and one that the media has not emphasized nearly enough in this matchup. Alabama is ranked best defensive team in the nation, but Clemson has narrowed the gap. Clemson ranks 8th in scoring defense, 7th with a 0.257 opponent points per play ratio, 6th allowing 4.5 YPP, and 7th allowing just 5.9 YP pass. This last metric is the one that will win the game for Clemson tonight. Alabama ranks 35th allowing 7.8 Yards per pass and have allowed a sack on 5.71% of pass plays. Clemson’s defense ranks 7th in the nation recording a sack on 9.36% of pas plays. It will be the elite speed and athleticism of the Clemson front seven that will pressure the Alabama OL and will get penetration and containment on that unit. This will contain Hurts and also reduce the amount of time he has to scan the field to make plays down field. Watson is bar none the most athletic and talented QB that the Alabama defense will face this season. You can be guaranteed that HC Swinney, with his track record outlined above, will have a tremendous game plan in place tonight. Last, I also think the dismissal of Kiffin, whether for good or bad reasons, has had an impact on the players. As a side show, it will be quite interesting to see how Sarkisian reacts to Saban’s verbal attacks on him after Bama goes a 3-and-out possession. |
|||||||
01-08-17 | Giants +5.5 v. Packers | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
25* graded play on the NY Giants (107) as they take on the Green Bay Packers (108) in NFC Wild Card action set to start at 4:40 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Giants will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, the one single requirements is that we need a +135 Money line to validate the ROI for the combination wager. If it is not at +135, then simply make a 25* wager using the line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-16 ATS mark good for 72% winners since 2005. Play on road teams (NY GIANTS) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Giants are a solid 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Giants are 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers since 1992. Giants are 54-27 ATS (+24.3 Units) after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game since 1992. Giants are 5-1 against the money line (+6.1 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards this season. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Giants. Weather will be a factor with cross winds in the 8 to 12 MPH range throughout the game. Game time temps will start at 12 degrees and steadily move into single digits during the game. However, we strongly believe this will give the Giants an added edge since they are the better rushing team and have a vastly better rushing defense. Giants have won all season with their defense and it will be no different today. Giants rank 3rd in scoring defense, 2nd posting a 0.267 opponent points per play ratio, and third with a 35% opponent third down conversion percentage. Green Bay led by Rogers is an elite offensive unit once again this season. Green Bay ranks 2nd with a 46% third down conversion percentage, BUT we believe that the Giants defense will keep that number under 33% today. Giants will be successful in keeping first down gains to low numbers and forcing Rogers to move the chain on third and long distances. Rogers is one of the best ever, however, this Giants defensive unit has steadily gotten better over the second half of the season and arguably are now the best defensive units left in the playoffs. Further, the Giants are a mistake free team ranking 2nd in the league averaging just 5.5 penalties per game. Packers secondary is a mess right now due to injuries. They have safeties playing corner in dime packages and this is a HUGE advantage for Beckham and Shepard in man coverage. If Beckham gets double teams, then it will open up high percentage pass completions to other WER and the TE. Take the Giants. |
|||||||
01-08-17 | Dolphins +12 v. Steelers | Top | 12-30 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Miami Dolphins (105) as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (106) in AFC Wild Card action set to start at 1:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dolphins will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has an outside shot at getting a shocking upset win. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, the one single requirements is that we need a +135 Money line to validate the ROI for the combination wager. If it is not at +135, then simply make a 25* wager using the line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-7 ATS mark good for 79% winners since 2005. Play against any team (PITTSBURGH) off 1 or more straight ‘overs’ against opponent off 6 or more consecutive ‘overs’. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is a solid 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games off in 2 straight division games since 1992. Pittsburgh is just 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992. Tomlin is a miserable money losing Tomlin is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) revenging an upset loss against opponent as a road favorite as the coach of Pittsburgh. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Dolphins. Steelers have struggled to stop the run this season. They rank 20th allowing 4.3 YPR while Miami ranks 8th gaining 4.5 YPA. Ajayi has been a major factor and was just named the team MVP. His success will open play action where Moore can target a vastly underrated receiver corp in man coverage. |
|||||||
01-07-17 | Raiders +4 v. Texans | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
25* graded play on Oakland (101) as they take on Houston (102) in AFC Wild Card action set to start at 4:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, the one single requirements is that we need a +135 Money line to validate the ROI for the combination wager. If it is not at +135, then simply make a 25* wager using the line. We also have a 10* graded play on the ‘over’ for this matchup. So, in addition to the combination wager, consider playing a 10* amount on the ‘over’ and then a reverse action parlay using the money line and the ‘over’ for a 5* unit play. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 95-48 ATS for 66.4% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites (HOUSTON) off a road loss against opponent off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more. Here is a second system that has gone 34-13 ATS for 72.3% winners since 2005. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OAKLAND) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a good team sporting a 60 to 75 win percentage and now playing a team with a winning record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they allow 5.5 to 6 net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. Oakland is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Oakland is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Oakland is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Raiders. History has been made before this game even starts. Connor Cook will be the first QB in NFL history to make his first career start in a playoff game and we think he will also be the first to win his first start in a playoff game. We performed an 11-game example of rookie quarterbacks playing in playoff action and their record is just 4-7 SU, but the spread record is 8-3 ATS. The first time a rookie was uder center in a playoff game was back in 1976 when Pat Haden played for an injured James Harris in a 14-12 win over Dallas. The last game, was in 2015 when A.J McCarron played for starter Andy Dalton in a 18-16 loss to Pittsburgh. Since 2000, the performance levels have been far more impressive, although just a 5-game sample size. So, these data examples do provide support for Connor Cook to perform well this afternoon. An added reason is that Houston is dealing with their own QB injuries and numerous injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Given the very talented and elite quality of the Oakland WR led by Amari Cooper, we strongly believe that Cook will be able to make plays , move the chains, and score points. . |
|||||||
01-02-17 | Auburn +3 v. Oklahoma | Top | 19-35 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 5 m | Show |
50* graded play on Auburn (281) as they take on Oklahoma (282) action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, the one single requirements is a +135 Money line to validate the ROI for the combination wager. If it is not at +135, then simply make a 25* wager using the line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-43 mark for only 43% winners, BUT has made a whopping 52.5 units/unit wagered since 1992. This impressive system has averaged a +299 DOG and underscores the value of applying this system to future qualifying games. Play against neutral field favorites using the money line that is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/play and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. Here is a second system that has gone 55-25 for 69% winners since 1992 and has made 33 units/unit wagered. Play against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (OKLAHOMA) excellent rushing team gaining more than 4.8 YPR and is now facing a team with an average rushing defense allowing between 3.5 to 4.3 YPR and after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games. This system is a perfect 5-0 this season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Auburn 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season. Auburn 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play Oklahoma is just 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards since 1992. Oklahoma is just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when they allow 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt. Fundamental Discussion Points Auburn’s ground attack was stopped by Alabama’ defense in their last game, but they will not be stopped by the Sooner defensive edition. Auburn ranks 8th in the nation gaining 263 rushing yards per game and they run the ball 68% of all plays. Sooners rank 49th allowing 161 rushing yards per game and 69th allowing 4.6 YPR. The solid ground attack has opened up easy to complete pass plays in play action or using ball fakes in the read-option scheme. Auburn ranks 18th in the nation completing 63% of their passes and 30th throwing an INT on just 2% of their plays. We just do not see the Sooner defense holding up to this power attack. Take the Auburn Tigers. |
|||||||
01-02-17 | USC v. Penn State +7 | Top | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
25* graded play on Penn State (280) as they take on USC (279) in the Rose Bowl set to start at 5:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and have a great shot to win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, the one single requirements is that we need a +135 Money line to validate the ROI for the combination wager. If it is not at +135, then simply make a 25* wager using the line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. · USC is 1-6 against the money line (-7.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. · Penn State is a solid 42-19 against the money line (+19.0 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards · Penn State is 14-1 against the money line (+13.2 Units) when they gain 8.5 to 9 net passing yards/attempt · Penn State is 8-1 against the money line (+7.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season. · Penn State is 39-4 against the money line (+32.1 Units) when they score 29 to 35 points · USC is an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. · USC is 9-30 ATS (-24.0 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points · USC is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. · Penn State is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Penn State. From Week 3 on to the end of the season, Penn State was definitely a contender for the Playoff Semifinals, but was hardly given the respect they deserved for that consideration. They rank 22nd in scoring offense, 13th in yards/point, 18th in yards/play, 10th in yards per pass play attempt, and third in interception percentage at just 1.38% of all pass plays run. USC is also a hot team down the stretch having won 8 straight games and if the last week of the regular season in the Pac-12 would have played out their way, then it would have been arguably USC playing Alabama instead of Washington. The difference in this game will be the PSU ground attack and then the ability of QB McSorely to look to the deep vertical routes in play action. If USC takes those deep routes away, the TE #88 will have a huge day for the Lions. McSorely is very smart and rarely ever forces any throw. Take the Lions. |
|||||||
01-01-17 | Chiefs v. Chargers +4.5 | Top | 37-27 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
50* graded play on San Diego as they take on Kansas City in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SD will lose this game by four or fewer points and has a great opportunity to win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, the one single requirements is that we need a +135 Money line to validate the ROI for the combination wager. If it is not at +135, then simply make a 25* wager using the line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-21 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 1983. Play on home teams (SAN DIEGO) off 2 or more consecutive ‘unders’, in a game involving two good offensive teams scoring between 23 and 27 PPG. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. KC is just 10-27 ATS (-19.7 Units) in road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game KC is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in road games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards last game Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Chargers. Even without Melvin Gordon in the lineup, we see San Diego ending the season with a great effort for the home crowd. Rivers is a veteran player, who never gives up and that will be demonstrated in this matchup. We expect him to exceed the SIM projections of 325 passing yards and obviously the higher that total goes, the greater the chances of the upset win too. |
|||||||
01-01-17 | Panthers v. Bucs UNDER 46 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
25* graded play ‘UNDER” Carolina (317) – Tampa Bay (318) in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 45 points will be scored in this game. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-17 ‘UNDER’ mark good for 73% winners since 1983. Play ‘Under’ with home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games and with the game occurring the second half of the season. Here is a second system that has gone 39-14 ‘under’ for 74% winners since 2010. Play ‘under’ with any team against the total (CAROLINA) off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tampa Bay is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Tampa Bay has had a great season under first year coach Dirk Koetter, but they will fall short of the playoffs. They are technically still in contention, but need SEVEN game outcomes to go their way including the 49ers defeating the Seahawks. However, this is a team that believes in their HC and has played very well recently. They have won five straight until B2B losses at Dallas and at New Orleans. Those are not the type of losses, where the Bucs simply did not play well – it was more that the opponent did more to win the game. The Bucs defense has done well in many different styles of games. They rank 2nd in the NFL allowing opponent to convert on just 35% of third down conversions. Carolina ranks 11th in the same category and as a result we believe this will be a game of field position leading to below average scoring opportunities. Take the ‘UNDER’. |
|||||||
12-31-16 | Ohio State -2 v. Clemson | Top | 0-31 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
25* graded play on Ohio State (273) as they take on Clemson (274) in College Playoff action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Ohio State will win this game by at least 6 points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Ohio State is 104-3 against the money line (+112.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Clemson is just 24-56 against the money line (-59.8 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Ohio State is a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Clemson is just 27-60 ATS (-39.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points Fundamental Discussion Points Ohio State will score at least 28 points in this game and as the history lessons shown above indicate this is very good news for the Buckeyes. Ohio State has the second-best defense in the nation that ranks 3rd in scoring defense, third in opponent yards-per-game, 2nd with a 0.208 opponent-points-per-play ratio, and third allowing 4.2 yards-per-play. Clemson ranks 24th with a 0.477 points per play ratio and just 64th averaging 4.4 yards per rush. Ohio State can run the ball against the Clemson defense, and in so doing can control the pace of the game to detriment of Clemson’s wishes. Take Ohio State. |
|||||||
12-31-16 | Washington +14.5 v. Alabama | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
25* graded play on Washington as they take on Alabama in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl in the College Football playoff set to start at 3:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a modest shot to win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Washington is a solid 6-2 against the money line (+10.3 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons. Washington is 7-1 against the money line (+12.8 Units) in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better over the last 2 seasons. Washington is 6-1 against the money line (+11.8 Units) in road games facing good offensive teams averaging greater than 5.9 yards/play over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Washington Huskies. No one is giving Washington even a glimmer of hope to defeat Alabama. Only 35% of all bets made, which exceeds 40,000 tickets, that we monitor at 7 different sportsbooks have been on Washington. This line opened at 14 ½ and based on the money flows, the line could be much higher. The fact that it isn’t is a key metric reflecting the larger so-called ‘Smart Money’ is on Washington. Let’s not forget too, that Washington is an elite team. Period. They rank best in the nation posting a 0.645 points per play ratio, third in scoring offense, and 17th in yards-per-rush. No doubt that Alabama defense is the best in the nation, BUT that does not imply that Washington can’t move the ball successfully against them. Washington defense ranks 10th in scoring defense, 8th in points per play allowed, and 5th allowing 4.5 opponent yards per play. We strongly believe that this game will be much tighter than any talking media head will lead you to believe and it just might be Washington winning the game. |
|||||||
12-31-16 | LSU -3 v. Louisville | Top | 29-9 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show |
25* graded play on LSU as they take on Louisville in the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl set to start at 11:00 AM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that LSU will win this game by more than 10 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-7 ATS mark good for 82% winners since 2010. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are quality teams outscoring opponents by seven or more points/game and after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LSU is a solid 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. LSU is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play Louisville is just 33-74 ATS (-48.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points Louisville is 12-29 ATS (-19.9 Units) after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers Fundamental Discussion Points Louisville ranks best in scoring offense, but let’s face it, they have not played the most difficult schedule, especially when compared to LSU. Ohio State was ranked hardest in SOS and Louisville a rather distant 19th. The margin between them is significant and we believe it will quite evident in this matchup. The most glaring advantage for LSU is their defense that ranks 5th in scoring defense, 5th in points per play allowed, and 14th allowing opponents to convert just 33% of their third down conversions. Lamar Jackson is the Heissman Trophy winner, but he was contained and confused by a Houston defense that ranks 39th in scoring defense allowed in the nation and 45th in opponent points per play. Take LSU. |
|||||||
12-30-16 | South Alabama v. Air Force -14 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
25* graded play on Air Force as they take on South Alabama in the NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl set to start at 5:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that AF will win this game by at least 20 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-10 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 1992. Play on any team with an excellent rushing attack gaining more than 4.8 YPR and is now facing a terrible rushing defense allowing more than 4.8 YPR and after 7 or more games, and after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. South Alabama is an imperfect 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. · AF is a solid 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) when they allow 50 to 100 rushing yards. · AF is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 200 or more yards over the last 3 seasons. · South Alabama is an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams averaging more than 425 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. |
|||||||
12-30-16 | TCU -3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
25* graded play on TCU (257) as they take on Georgia (258) in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that TCU will win this game by at least 7 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-5 ATS mark good for 84% winners since 2010. Play against all teams in a non-conference matchup where the line is +3 to -3 that is an average offensive team scoring between 21 and 28 PPG and is now facing a good offensive team scoring between 28 and 34 PPG after 7 or more games.in non-conference games The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. · TCU is a strong 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. · Georgia is just 21-64 ATS (-49.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points. · TCU is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) facing excellent punt coverage teams that are allowing less than 7.5 yards per return over the last three seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Both teams fell far short of expectations for this season. TCU is tied with Oklahoma in the Big-12 with a 29-9 overall record over the past three seasons, but won just 6 games this season. However, there are only 13 Seniors on this team, so this is the first audition, if you will, for the underclassman to make a statement to the coaching staff in this Bowl game. The spotlight will certainly be on Texas A&M transfer and Junior QB Kenny Hill. He massed 3,062 passing yards with 15 TDs, but three 13 INTs. He was without his NO. 1 receiver KaVontae Turpin, but that can longer be a reason for Hill not to take another big step forward in leading the offense into next season. So, we expect a huge game from him today that will spill over to the rest pf the team. Take TCU. |
|||||||
12-29-16 | Oklahoma State +3 v. Colorado | Top | 38-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
25* graded play on Oklahoma State (255) as they take on (256) Colorado in in the Valero Alamo Bowl set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that OSU will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-41 record for only 51% winners, But has made a whopping 45.3 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play on neutral field underdogs using the money line that are off a road loss against a conference rival and with the current game taking place after November 30. The average play for this system has been a +200 dog, making it one of the most powerful money making systems. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. · Oklahoma State is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. · Colorado is 44-97 ATS (-62.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. · Colorado is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) when they allow 5.5 to 6 total yards per play. · OSU is a near-perfect 13-1 against the money line (+15.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Cowboys tonight. |
|||||||
12-28-16 | Kansas State +3 v. Texas A&M | Top | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
25* graded play on Kansas State as they take on Texas A&M in the Advocare V100 Texas Bowl set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that K-State will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. The one caveat is that we need to have a money line of at least 135. If it is not at that level or higher, then simply wager a 25* amount using the available line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-7 mark using the money line good for 84% winners and has made 29.6 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (KANSAS ST) after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game and is now facing an opponent after being outgained by 175 or more total yards in their previous game. This system is 7-2 this season an 22-5 over the past three seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. · K-State is a solid 35-14 ATS (+19.6 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards · K-State is 33-9 ATS (+23.1 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt · A&M is just 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards · A&M is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt · A&M is 6-25 ATS (-21.5 Units) in road games when they commit 2 turnovers · A&M is 10-27 ATS (-19.7 Units) when they allow 400 to 450 total yards · A&M is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board K-State. These teams are somewhat similar with a strong ground game that has overwhelmed many DLs this season. In this matchup, we believe it will be the K-State groud attack that proves to be the difference maker. K-State ranks 14th in the nation averaging 46.1 rushing plays per game and 12th running the ball on 62% of their plays. K-State had a season low of 110 rushing yards in their 38-17 loss at Oklahoma, but since have gained at least 237 rushing yards and averaged 290 rushing yards over those last 6 games. The A&M defense has been exposed to the ground game havig allowed 298 rushing yards in their last game against LSU and 365 rushing yards on 58 plays at Mississippi State, November 5. We strongly believe K-State OL and pounding run game that will also attack the perimeter will gradually wear down the A&M defense. Take K-State. |
|||||||
12-27-16 | Wake Forest v. Temple -11.5 | Top | 34-26 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
25* graded play on Temple as they take on Wake Forest in Military Bowl action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Temple will win this game by 17 or more points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. · Wake Forest is just 34-91 ATS (-66.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points · Wake Forest is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by 1.5 to 2 yards/play · Temple is a solid 22-5 ATS (+16.5 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points · Temple is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 net passing yards/attempt · Temple is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they rush for 150 to 200 yards over the last 2 seasons. · Temple is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season. · Temple is 19-3 ATS (+15.7 Units) when they allow 4 to 4.5 total yards per play Fundamental Discussion Points Temple has had a fantastic season given that they had low expectations after losing 19 seniors from last year’s team. However, they have won 12 straight games ATS after losing ATS in Week 1 to Army and that by just one point. They have also won seven straight games and destroyed a then-ranked No. 20 Navy team in the Conference Championship 34-10 as 1.5 point dogs. Back in Week 3 they played Penn State and that game was special for both teams. PSU did not lose a game the rest of the way and Temple also began their 9-1 win streak. Temple also covered against Penn State losing 34-27. WF lost 5 of the last 6 games and the last three games. This team has a new interim coach as well, BUT a win this bowl game would make them the winniest team in Temple history. There is a great article in the Philadelphia Inquirer if you are interested to see how this team was built and how much they grew over the last four seasons. It is a great read. http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/colleges/temple/20161227_Jensen__Temple_is_beating_the_odds_from_start_to_finish.html Take Temple. R |
|||||||
12-26-16 | Maryland v. Boston College +2.5 | Top | 30-36 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
25* graded play on Boston College as they take on Maryland in the Quick Lane Bowl set to start at 2:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that BC will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, we have one mandate and that is the money line portion of the combination wager must be at a minimum of +135. If is not there, then simply wager the 25* amount on the line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 83-44 ATS mark good for 65% winners since 2010. Play against any team (MARYLAND) after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games against opponent after having won 2 out of their last 3 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Maryland is a money burning 6-22 ATS (-18.2 Units) when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt Maryland is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. Bowl favorites under the leadership of first year coaches are 5-16-1 ATS when facing an opponent off a ATS and SU win. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Boston College. Maryland started off 4-0 and then won just more games against an injury riddled Michigan State team and lowly Rutgers. Boston College has a strong defense that is battled tested in the ACC. The Eagles rank 11th in the nation allowing 328 yards per game, 13th allowing opponents 33% third conversion success, and 11th allowing just 3.4 yards per rushing attempt. Maryland relies on the run and we feel strongly BC will dominate the LOS, get penetration, and stop the Maryland ground attack. Without play action and the weapons to attack the BC perimeter defense, it may prove to be a very long afternoon for Maryland. Take BC. |
|||||||
12-25-16 | Ravens v. Steelers -6 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
25* graded play on Pittsburgh as they take on Baltimore in AFC North Division action set to start at 4:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will win this game by more than 11 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-22 ATS mark good for 68% winners since 2005. Play on favorites (PITTSBURGH) good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG and is now facing an average team (+/- 40 YPG differential after outgaining opponent by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Pittsburgh is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. Pittsburgh is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they allow 3.5 to 4 rushing yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons. Pittsburgh is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points this season. Pittsburgh is 31-12 ATS (+17.8 Units) in home games when they gain 5.5 to 6 total yards per play Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Pittsburgh Steelers. Normally, our analysis centers on the most common personnel alignment (single back, 3 WR, slot receiver and/or TE), but in this matchup keep your eyes peeled to Baltimore’s fullback Kyle Juszczyk. Baltimore’s use of the FB is unique in this modern-era of spread offenses and it certainly works for them. Without the lead FB blocker, Baltimore averages 3.9 YPR, which ranks 24th in the league in all formations, but with the FB 5.0 YPR. However, Pittsburgh is a divisional rival, who already knows Baltimore’s tendencies better than anyone in the league. Pittsburgh defense ranks third allowing 89.2 rushing yards per game. We strongly believe that Pittsburgh will force Baltimore into third-and-long situations, which all but eliminates the power FB scheme. Take the Steelers. |
|||||||
12-25-16 | Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 46.5 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
25* graded play ‘UNDER’ the posted total in the Pittsburgh-Baltimore (127-128) showdown set to start at 4:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 45 points will be scored in this game. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 76-34 ‘UNDER’ mark good for 69% winners since 2010. Play ‘under’ with any team against the total (PITTSBURGH) versus division opponents, off a win against a division rival. Here is a second system that has gone 39-12 ‘under’ for 76% winners since 2010. Play ‘under’ with any team against the total (PITTSBURGH) revenging a loss against opponent, off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival. The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game: · Baltimore is a near-perfect 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons. · Pittsburgh is a solid 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons. · Pittsburgh is 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons. · 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 total yards per play over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Normally, our analysis centers on the most common personnel alignment (single back, 3 WR, slot receiver and/or TE), but in this matchup keep your eyes peeled to Baltimore’s fullback Kyle Juszczyk. Baltimore’s use of the FB is unique in this modern-era of spread offenses and it certainly works for them. Without the lead FB blocker, Baltimore averages 3.9 YPR, which ranks 24th in the league in all formations, but with the FB 5.0 YPR. However, Pittsburgh is a divisional rival, who already knows Baltimore’s tendencies better than anyone in the league. Pittsburgh defense ranks third allowing 89.2 rushing yards per game. We strongly believe that Pittsburgh will force Baltimore into third-and-long situations, which all but eliminates the power FB scheme. And if you haven’t figured already, the battle of the power games and control of the LOS will take large chunks of time off the clock leading to a lower scoring game. Take the Steelers. |
|||||||
12-24-16 | Middle Tennessee State v. Hawaii +7 | Top | 35-52 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
25* graded play on Hawaii (228) as they take on Middle Tennessee State (227) in the Hawaii Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Hawaii will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and have a great opportunity to win the game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-21 mark using the money line for 58% winners and has made 37 units/unit wagered since 1992. This system has averaged an +200 DOG, which makes it a very powerful tool to use for qualifying games in the future. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. · Hawaii is a solid 36-13 ATS (+21.7 Units) when their defense forces 3 turnovers · Hawaii is 97-42 ATS (+50.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points · Stockstill is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored as the coach of MTST. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Hawaii. Strength of schedule is meaningful for this matchup with Hawaii playing a far more difficult schedule. MDST defense has not been all that good this season and has been largely inconsistent down the stretch. They rank 108th in scoring defense and 107th posting a 0.506 opponent points per play ratio. Hawaii defense ranks 48th posting a 5.4 opponent yards per play and 64th allowing opponents to convert 40% of third down situations. Conversely, MTST ranks a horrid 126th allowing opponents a 51% third down conversion percentage. Take Hawaii. |
|||||||
12-24-16 | Vikings +7 v. Packers | Top | 25-38 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 50 m | Show |
25* graded play on Minnesota (11) as they take on Green Bay (12) in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot to win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-6 ATS mark good for 82% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) after a game where they forced one or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after two consecutive games where they forced three or more turnovers. Here is a second system that has gone 23-4 ATS for 85% winners since 1983. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 9 points or less last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game: · Minnesota is a solid 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 net passing yards/attempt · Minnesota is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. · Minnesota is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons. · Minnesota is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Green Bay defense is just not good and reflects all of the injuries the unit has had to endure this season. Minnesota’s defense remains one of the best in the NFL and they will certainly have the skills to contain Rogers. Vikings rank 2nd in the NFL allowing just 5.9 yards per pass play, third allowing 205.6 yards per game, and fourth overall allowing 5.0 yards per offensive play. Moreover, they are excellent at bringing pressure ranking 7th in sack percentage. Take Minnesota. |
|||||||
12-24-16 | Falcons v. Panthers | Top | 33-16 | Win | 105 | 2 h 41 m | Show |
25* graded play on Atlanta as they take on Carolina in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game by at least 6 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 22-5 ATS mark good for 82% winners since 2010. Play on road teams (ATLANTA) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game: · Atlanta is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) when they gain 8.5 to 9 net passing yards/attempt · Atlanta is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt · Atlanta is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 1 to 1.5 yards/play · Carolina is an imperfect 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they allow 8 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Falcons. |
|||||||
12-22-16 | Giants -2.5 v. Eagles | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
25* graded play on the NY Giants (101) as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles (102) in a major NFC East matchup set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NY will win this game by more than 7 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-3 mark good for 91% winners using the Money Line since 2010. Play on favorites using the money line in the second half of the season (NY GIANTS) hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games. Here is a second amazing system that has gone 22-4 ATS for 85% winners since 2010. Play on road teams (NY GIANTS) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. · NY Giants are a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when they allow 5.5 to 6 net passing yards/attempt · NY Giants are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt · Philadelphia is a near-imperfect 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the NY Giants. Two teams heading in opposite direction face off tonight on Thursday Night Football. Of note, is the fact that this is the first Thursday Night Game between these two teams in their 84-year history. Giants have won eight of the past nine games and in large part due to a very staunch defense. The Giants ‘D’ ranks third in scoring defense, second in opponent points per play, and third allowing opponents to convert just 35% of third down situations. Eagles offense is really struggling, but head coach Pederson has his team playing all 60 minutes and there is yet to be any ‘give-up’ yet. Doubtful, they will give up in this heated Division rivalry either. However, the Giants defense presents so many very difficult matchups to the Eagles offense, that lacks any significant receiver threat. Over the last 3 games, the Giants defense ranks best in the NFL forcing opponents to gain 26.3 yards to score just 1 equivalent point on the scoreboard. Take the Giants. |
|||||||
12-22-16 | Colorado State v. Idaho UNDER 65 | Top | 50-61 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
25* graded play ‘UNDER’ the posted total in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (219 and 220) set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 59 points will be scored in this game. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-4 ‘under’ result good for 85% winners since 2010. Play ‘Under’ with all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (COLORADO ST) after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games and is now facing an opponent after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game: CSU is a solid 11-2 ‘UNDER’ (+8.8 Units) in road games after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game. Fundamental Discussion Points Idaho has to be the MOST UNLIKELY bowl participant this season. After more than two decades of losing ways and a school admin decision to go to the FCS after being dismissed from the Sun Belt Conference, the Vandals make only their third bowl appearance at the top level of College Football. Both teams have been hot with CSU winning 5 of the last 7 games and covering the spread in all 7 games. Idaho has won 6 of the last 7 games and has covered all 7 games. Idaho is not going to stop the CSU offense, however, they are capable of making stops and making the game a field possession type competition. The Idaho defense limited three of its last four opponents to 14 or fewer points and season-lows in the stats too. Sophomore middle linebacker Tony Lashley recorded a team-best 99 tackles. Although not big in size, they are fast to the ball and are above average making open field tackles. No play on the side, but we do think confidently the ‘under’ is the strong play. |
|||||||
12-19-16 | Panthers v. Redskins -7 | Top | 26-15 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
50* graded play on Washington as they take on Carolina in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Washington will win this game by 11 or more points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Carolina is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Carolina is 15-42 ATS (-31.2 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points Carolina is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) when they allow 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt Carolina is an imperfect 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they allow 8 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. Washington is a solid 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt Washington is a perfect 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) when they gain 8 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons. Washington is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Washington is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they gain 400 or more total yards over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board Washington. It will be the Washington passing game led by Cousins that will be the major difference maker in this game. Washington ranks 2nd in the NFL averaging 303 passing yards per game and 3rd allowing a sack on only 3.50% of passing plays. The OL has done a magnificent job protecting Cousins and giving him extra time and confidence to find the open receiver. Carolina defense is poor ranking 30th allowing 272 passing yards per game. We strongly believe Cousins will shred the Carolina zone and post above average numbers across all major metrics. Take the Washington Redskins. |
|||||||
12-18-16 | Packers v. Bears +4.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Chicago Bears (312) as they take on the Green Bay Packers (311) in NFC North action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Chicago will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great opportunity to win this game. Given the favorable projections, I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-6 ATS mark good for 83% winners since 2005. Play against favorites (GREEN BAY) off an upset win as a home underdog and with a winning record on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game: Bears are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last two seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points |
|||||||
12-18-16 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Texans | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
25* graded play on Jacksonville (319) as they take on Houston (320) in AFC South action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that JAX will win this game. Given the favorable projections, I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-21 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 1983. Play on road underdogs or pick after 7 or more consecutive losses. 41% of the plays made based on the criteria of this system covered the spread by more than 7 points. This underscores the upset potential identified by the SIM Algorithm The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game: · JAX is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. · JAX is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when they allow 5 to 5.5 net passing yards/attempt Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Jaguars. Houston is arguably the worst offensive team to ever be in first place in a Division. They have been outscored by 45 points this season. Of course, JAX is a struggling team having lost eight straight games, but they do have the tools and talent to compete and win this game. JAX passing defense has done very well ranking 5th in opponent passing yards per attempt, 4th allowing 203 passing yards per game and 14th in sacks. Houston is a horrible 29th averaging just 5.8 yards per pass, rank 28th throwing an interception on 2.88% of all plays run, and 28th in completion percentage. JAX surprises everyone, but not you and not us. Take Jacksonville. |
|||||||
12-18-16 | Titans +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
25* graded play on Tennessee (317) as they take on Kansas City (318) in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tennessee will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given the favorable projections, I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 42-11 SU mark using the money line for 79% winners over the past five seasons. Play against any team using the money line (KANSAS CITY) after a game where they forced no turnovers and is now facing an opponent after four consecutive games where they committed 1 or fewer turnovers. The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game: Titans are 32-8 ATS (+23.2 Units) when they rush for 150 to 175 yards Titans are 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 50-100 yards KC is a money burning 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) when they allow 150 to 175 rushing yards KC is also a horrid 25-80 ATS (-63.0 Units) when they allow 150 or more rushing yards Fundamental Discussion Points As the SIM projects and the technical points under score, it will be the Titans ground attack that will be the principle reason they win this road game and take control of the AFC South Division. Tennessee ranks 3rd averaging 4.7 yards per rush, 3rd averaging 144.5 rushing yards per game, and 2nd with 48% of all plays executed on the ground. KC can’t stop the run and rank 25th allowing 4.3 yards per rush, 27th allowing 123 rushing yards per game. Marriota has played extremely well over the last nine games and has done even better taking care of the ball and not forcing throws that can lead to interceptions. Tennessee has gone four straight games without a turnover while creating eight turnovers by their defense. Take Tennessee. |
|||||||
12-17-16 | Dolphins -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Miami Dolphins (303) as they take on the NY Jets (304) in NFL Saturday action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that MIAMI will win this game by at least 8 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-7 ATS mark good for 80% winners since 2005. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) with a poor first half defense allowing 14 or more points per game, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Jets are a miserable 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when they allow 100 to 125 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons. 20-43 ATS (-27.3 Units) when they allow 5.5 to 6 total yards per play Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Dolphins. Now, I am fully aware that the Dolphins have been a terrible cold weather team, especially in December games; that they now are relying on Matt Moore due to the injury to Tannenhill; that somehow the Jets defeated the 49ers last week; and that Miami has outplayed only 2 of the last 6 opponents in the box score data. But, this is the Jets 2016 edition and having Bryce Petty under center is hardly an asset at this point in his very young career. It is one thing to be prepared to be under center in the NFL and have a strong OL in front of you. It’s vastly different when the QB is not quite ready and the OL and other units are playing largely inconsistent football more evident of an expansion team. Miami is playing to get into the playoffs and the team is centered on taking it one play at a time and not getting caught up in the emotion of any game or situation. The Dolphins also have two excellent WR in Landry and Parker going up against a Jets defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in allowed pass completion percentage and 30th in interceptions. Moore is the most undervalued QB in Draftkings for those folks who are engaged in that competition. Take the Dolphins. |
|||||||
12-17-16 | Arkansas State +5.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
25* graded play on Arkansas State (207) as they take on UCF (208) in the Autonation Cure Bowl set to start at 5:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that ARST will win this game. Given the favorable projections, I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-17 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 1992. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARKANSAS ST) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more. The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game: ARST is a solid 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) off a road win against a conference rival ARST is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Arkansas State has had an excellent defense this season ranking 18th in scoring defense and 23rd in opponent pass completion percentage. Granted, their schedule was significantly easier than the one faced by UCF this season. However, ARST matches up very well against UCF and we see the winning this game outright. Of course, the SIM grading is what first identifies an opportunity, but then we dive deep into our databases and then apply fundamental matchup analyses to complete the vetting process of any game released. All systems are ‘GO’ on Arkansas State. |
|||||||
12-17-16 | Houston v. San Diego State OVER 51.5 | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
25* graded play ‘OVER’ Houston – SD State in the Las Vegas Bowl set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 55 points will be scored in this game. Interesting play here given the large line movement from 60 to the current 51 ½ range, which by itself has generated this opportunity. I have done extensive testing regarding ‘steam’ moves and I can tell you that fading large line moves of 5 points or more under the right situations can offer a fantastic long-term ROI. This is obviously not a steam move, but the public has jumped on the ‘UNDER’ with irrational exuberance. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game: Houston is 28-13 OVER (+13.7 Units) after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game Long is 11-3 OVER (+7.7 Units) when playing against a good team having won 60% to 75% of their games as the coach of San Diego State. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘OVER’ for this matchup. Aztecs have had 10 straight weeks with 6 of them on the road playing football games and now in just two weeks must turn around and face a significant step up in competition. Houston has had 3 weeks off to prepare for this matchup and they may score more than 42 points on their own merit. Despite the fatigue, we see the Aztecs being quite successful using the ground attack, which then sets up play action to exploit vertical routes in man coverage. Houston also can play fast and will definitely use the no-huddle scheme at times in this game. Houston runs a balanced attack, but rank 7th in the nation throwing an average of 42 passes per game. This reflects the speed that they can execute on offense and this will expose SDST in the second half of the game. Take the ‘OVER’ |
|||||||
12-17-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. New Mexico -7.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
25* graded play on New Mexico as they take on UT-San Antonio in the Gildan New Mexico Bowl set to start at 2:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that will New Mexico win this game by more than 11 points. Lobos are projected to dominate the LOS and gain more than 350 rushing yards with total output over 500 yards. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game: · UTSA is a near-imperfect 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. · Lobos are a solid 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) when they rush for 300 or more yards · Lobos are 73-32 ATS (+37.8 Units) when they score 28 or more point · Lobos are 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points · Lobos are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards over the last 2 seasons. · Lobos are a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games when they are outgain their opponents by 150-200 yards · Lobos are also 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points The Roadrunners are playing their first bowl game in school history after going 6-6 an 5-3 in C-USA action. The Lobos are bowl eligible for the second straight season and gained a share of the Mountain West Mountain Division title. The Roadrunners feature a balanced attack with not only two rushers over 700 yards, but two receivers, Josh Stewart and Kerry Williams Jr., who have combined for 1,200 yards. On defense, the Roadrunners hold their opponents to 152 yards, but we do not believe they can control the line and stop the Lobos on the ground. Lobos are ranked second in the nation gaining 6.6 yards per rush and third averaging 53.4 rushing plays per game. They rank best in the nation gaining 355 rushing yards per game. SOS is actually fairly equal for the season quotient, however, UTSA has not faced a dominant physical OL with power between the tackles and speed to attack the perimeter on any play. |
|||||||
12-15-16 | Rams +16 v. Seahawks | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Rams (301) as they take on Seattle (302) in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Rams will lose this game by fewer than 13 points and has only a modest opportunity to post a remarkable upset win. Given the favorable projections, I like normally make these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, in this case, we are suggesting adding a 3* play to the 25* line wager. . Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-22 ATS mark good for 71.4% winners since 2005. Play on a road teams after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games. Here is a second system that has gone 23-5 ATS for 82% winners since 2005. Play on road teams (LA RAMS) that are struggling offensive teams scoring 17 or less points/game, and after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games. Here is a third system working against Seattle and has gone 32-10 ATS for 76% winners since 2005. Play against favorites (SEATTLE) after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers. The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game: · Seattle is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Rams tonight. The Rams defense is the key to this cover. They are playing well despite being backed by the worst NFL offense. That unit ranks 5th allowing just 35% third-down conversions and rank 8th allowing 7.2 yards-per-pass. Wilson had a horrific last game and the team, in our opinion, is not nearly as good as the media talking heads would lead you to believe. Hence, that is why the line is inflated to these lofty levels and then lifted even higher by an irrational public sentiment. Take the Rams. |
|||||||
12-12-16 | Ravens v. Patriots -6 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
50* graded play on New England (134) as they take on Baltimore (133) in MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by at least 11 points. I also have money flow data to believe this line, now at NE -7 points can drift lower to 6 points by game time. There has been a surge in public betting support on Baltimore and it has been enough to move the line lower. I would recommend waiting till later this afternoon or even after 6:00 PM ET to place the wager for the game. Although the projections show that the extra point benefit in the line will not be necessary, it NEVER hurts shopping and working for the best possible line available. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game: · Patriots are a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. · Patriots are 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games when they allow 75 to 100 rushing · Patriots are 60-35 ATS (+21.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points · Patriots are 42-18 ATS (+22.2 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 to 1 yard/play · TOM BRADY is a perfect 6-0 ATS in his career at home when facing the current No.1 ranked defense. Fundamental Discussion Points Baltimore ranks first in scoring defense, yards per game allowed, third-down conversions allowed, and yards per rush allowed. The Patriots are tied with Baltimore in scoring defense, 9th in total yards allowed, 11th in rushing yards per attempt, 8th in rushing yards per game, and 11th in passing yards per game allowed. So, with Baltimore’s inconsistent offense, it may be the Patriots defense that creates turnovers and gets stops on third downs and gives the offense short field scoring opportunities. Take the Patriots. |
|||||||
12-11-16 | Saints +2 v. Bucs | Top | 11-16 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
25* graded play on New Orleans as they take on Tampa Bay in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that New Orleans will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 84-41 ATS mark good for 67% winners since 1983. Play ON underdogs or pick (NEW ORLEANS) in a game involving two average teams posting a +/- 3 PPG differential after 8 or more games, and after scoring 14 points or less scored in their last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game: · TB is just 27-54 ATS (-32.4 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points · TB a miserable 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games when their defense allows 300 to 350 net passing yards. · TB is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games when their defense allows 300 or more net passing yards. · 13-38 ATS (-28.8 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by 0.5 to 1 yards/play. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Saints. Saints are second in offensive scoring and will be matched against a rather suspect TB defense that ranks 19th in scoring defense. Granted, the Saints defense does rank 30th in scoring defense, but that stat is a bit manipulated due to the scoring barrage of their offense. The Saints offense is just too powerful with Brees for the Bucs to contain enough to allow Winston and his unit to keep pace. Brees ranks first in the NFL converting 50% of their third-down situations this season. Take the Saints. |
|||||||
12-11-16 | Cardinals v. Dolphins +2.5 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
25* graded play on Miami (116) as they take on Arizona (115) in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miami will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-10 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 1983. Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARIZONA) off 2 or more consecutive ‘overs’ and is a good offensive team scoring between 23 and 27 PPG and is now facing a matchup against a poor defensive team allowing between 23 and 27 PPG. The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game: Arizona is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons. Miami is a solid 41-14 ATS (+25.6 Units) when their defense forces 3 turnovers since 1992. Arizona is a money burning 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Dolphins. If you read even a little bit of the media coverages for this game, you already know that Miami has not covered a December game in the last 3 seasons. That’s all about to change this afternoon. We fully expect Ryan Tannenhill to have a monster game throwing the ball to Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker, who will have favorable matchups against the Arizona secondary. The reason is the emergence of the Dolphins ground attack, which has opened up far more play action opportunities to exploit vertical routes. Take Miami. |
|||||||
12-11-16 | Texans v. Colts -6.5 | Top | 22-17 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
25* graded play on Indianapolis as they take on Houston in AFC South action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Colts will win this game by at least 11 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-18 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 2005. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) after scoring 14 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. Of the 62 qualifying plays made by the criteria detailed in the system, 29 of them or 47% covered the spread by at least 7 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game: · Houston is an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons. · Houston is a money losing 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) in road games when they rush for 100 to 125 yards · Indianapolis is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points |
|||||||
12-10-16 | Army +4.5 v. Navy | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
25* graded play on ARMY as they take on Navy in NCAA football action set to start at 3:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Army will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-9 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 2010. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARMY) outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Army is a solid 43-23 ATS (+17.7 Units) when they rush for 300 or more yards since 1992; 47-23 ATS (+21.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992; 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by =230 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.