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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-30-13 | Texas +14.5 v. Oregon | Top | 7-30 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
10* graded play on Texas as they take on Oregon in the Valero Alamo Bowl set to start at 6:45 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I also have a 5* play 'UNDER' the posted total in this Bowl Game. If you want to step up the wager in case of a major upset, which I do think can happen, I would suggest only a 1.5* amount using the ML with Texas and the 'Under'. Both programs had high aspirations than this Bowl, but it is an opportunity for the Texas program to make changes that will benefit the program for years to come. It took a real man, in Mack Brown, to step down knowing he was under contract through 2020 at $5.0 million per year. He is a great coach, but sometimes changes is a very good thing. he will remain as a consultant to Powers. Oregon has had a very disappointing season and I did have winning plays against them in their two losses. When teams are strong winning streaks and then suddenly are brought down to earth, the entire team questions whether they were really as good as the polls suggested. Texas has the Big-12 Defensive Player of the Year in Jackson Jeffcoat, who had 12 sacks and 21 tackles for losses. He can dominate this game and disrupt the flow of the Oregon offense. Texas did get gutted in several games this season, but I strongly believe they will play a very strong game on the defensive side of the ball. Even more important is the fact that Texas can pound the ball between the tackles and that has been the universal truth in defeating the Ducks. HC Brown is a solid 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after a game where they forced no turnovers as the coach of Texas; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival. Texas is on a very nice 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons. Take the Longhorns for a 10* play, the 'UNDER" for a 5* play, and a 1.5* optional parlay using Texas on the ML and the 'UNDER'.
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12-29-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 53 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
10* graded play on taking the 'UNDER' Dallas-Philadelphia in the NFC East showdown with winner-take-all status set to start at 8:30 PM ET. As an added bonus, I suggest playing a 2* parlay using Dallas on the Money Line and the 'under'. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 50 points will be scored in this game. Let's take a look at some solid trends and game situations for this game. Philadelphia has a great offense, but they have a terrible TOP ranking. Dallas is a perfect 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons. After a no-show in Minnesota, which was my winning 10* NFC Game of the Year winner on the Vikings, the Eagles put up monster numbers last week against Chicago. All NFL teams have a difficult time repeating strong successes on offense and Philadelphia is no exception. They are 15-4 UNDER (+10.6 Units) after scoring 40 points or more last game since 1992; 30-12 UNDER (+16.8 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-12 mark for 77% winners since 1983. Play under with road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (PHILADELPHIA) after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games and with this game taking place in the second half of the season. It has also gone a strong 6-1 'UNDER' this seasons and 12-2 'under' the past three seasons. Granted, this is a vastly different Eagle offense than in seasons past, but the total number being posted already more than reflects that fact. This is a playoff game and I believe it will take on a somewhat cautious tone throughout the first half. Both teams will not want to make mistakes leading to short-field scoring opportunities for the opponent. Kyle Orton is one of the best backups in the NFL and he has the stronger arm. His experience and leadership will be evident on the field tonight. Dez Bryant was targeted 17 times in the Dallas win earlier this year in Philadelphia. He will be going up against Carey Williams, who has been playing very aggressive coverage in recent weeks and has succeeded in that style. Orotn will always have TE Jason Whitten and Murray as outlet passes if Bryant is jammed at the LOS. However, Bryant has the quickness to get off the LOS and Williams misses the 'jam' then Orton will easily see it and have him wide open on the perimeter before safety help can arrive. Let's not forget either that Murray is an excellent back, who did not play in the first game against Philadelphia. The Eagles defense is a suspect tackling group and Murray ranks 4th in the NFL with 50 missed tackles on ONLY 248 touches. he has only been limited in recent weeks by a lack of carries and has had solid games since Week 5. McCoy leads the NFL in rushing, but Murray can match him in this game. Foles was perfect last week against Chicago. He only threw four incomplete passes, three were throw-aways and one was dropped. That will be a very tough act to follow against any NFL defense. The Dallas defense will bring far more pressure tonight than in any game yet this season. Foles has a QB rating of 134 when not pressured and when he is pressured it drops to 83. This can certainly lead to big plays downfield to Jackson if the pressure does not get to Foles. However, I have noted that Dallas plays much better defense when playing man on the perimeter. Ware is a player despite aging, that can take over a game. he will be going up against peters and will be a critical matchup that will go a long way in determining the winner. I do see Dallas being very successful running the ball and watch top see when Philadelphia brings safety help to the box to help stop the run for that is when Orton will know he will have man coverage with Bryant on the perimeter and Whitten streaking down the seems. So, I also like Dallas as a 5* play. I would recommend playing only the 10* 'under' and 2* parlay using Dallas on the Money Line and the 'under'
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12-29-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 20 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on Arizona in a major NFC matchup set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by 6 or more points. In the preseason, I had discussed and recommended a play on the 49ers to win the NFC Championship. I have consistently maintained that stance and now believe that play warrants an additional amount and also to place a wager on them to win the Super Bowl. What matters now is this game and obviously I like the 49ers a lot in this matchup. The Arizona Cardinals are one of the top teams in the NFL based on the algorithms and have been steadily climbing up the standings, BUT they will be the best team not in the playoffs. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a? 39-11 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2002. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN FRANCISCO) after 2 consecutive games where they committed no turnovers. This system is 4-1 ATS this season and 21 of the 39 winners covered the spread by 7 or more points. Harbaugh is a rock solid 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when facing solid passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game as the coach of the 49ers. I do believe the Cardinals know in the back of their minds that Tampa Bay is very unlikely to go into the Super Dome and defeat the Saints, who are 7-0 at home this season. They need to win this game and then need the Bucs to win in order for them to get into the playoffs. SF is in the playoffs already, but they are also playing for a first round BYE and possibly the home field advantage. Both teams bring excellent run stop units with Arizona ranked first allowing 84.5 yards per game and SF ranking 5th allowing 97 YPG. Frank Gore is the only back in the NFL to gain more than 100 yards against the Arizona unit. In that game SF piled up 138 rushing yards and 95 pf them were after contact. The SF OL has had another great season based on their overall grades, but have fallen off from the incredible 2012 seasons. Their pass blocking grades match that of last year. As a result Gore is averaging 4.2 YPC versus 4.8 YPC in 2012 still quite good. The true difference between these teams is the SF offense that ranks fifth posting a 0.425 points per play ratio and third averaging 141.2 rushing yards per game. The run-pass presence of Kaepernick is hard to defend and he ranks 9th in the NFL averaging 9.0 yards per pass attempt. And then there is the matchup nightmare TE Vernon Davis brings to this game. Arizona's Achilles heel is defending the TE this season. In last week's win over Seattle Zach Miller had an excellent day and scored their only TD. Davis had his best game in the first game against Arizona this season with 8 catches, 180 yards and two TD. With safety/slot corner extraordinaire Mathieu out for the year, that will leave Arizona without an important piece in their coverage schemes, so Davis will be matchup often and will line up as WR on both sides of the ball at times. Davis leads the NFL with 11 catches of 20+ yards, which is four more than any other TE in the league. The only Cardinal that can stay with him is Peterson, but then he gives up tremendous size and also leaves Crabtree then to be running wild. This will also spread the Cardinals defense allowing quick traps and misdirections out of the pistol and shot gun formations. Kaepernick will have fundamentally easy reads to make presnap and they will get formations set to exploit the best possible matchup. Take the 49ers.
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12-27-13 | Washington v. BYU +4 | Top | 31-16 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
10* graded play on BYU as they take on Washington in the Fight Hunger Bowl set to start at 9:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BYU will win this game. I like using dogs like this in a combination bet utilizing the line and money line to our advantage. In this game, the money line is getting inflated due to the public exuberance of Washington. I am seeing ML at +170 at many books right now. So, I will be playing this as an 8.5* amount using the line and then adding a 2.5* amount using the money line for an 11* Total amount. I am essentially adding 10* risk to the 10* play, but getting paid pack 70% on that added risk. It's even higher if you calculate the ROI on a base of the 8.5* play. BYU HC Mendenhall is one of the best preparers in the nation and his records reflect this work. He is a solid 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when playing against a good team posting a win percentage between 60% to 75% as the coach of BYU; 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road games when facing solid passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. BYU is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-19 mark for 72% winners and has made 34.4 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (WASHINGTON) that are excellent rushing teams gaining >=230 RYPG and is now facing a team with an average rushing defense allowing between 140 and 190 RYPG and after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game. This system has gone 4-1 making 3.6 units this season and 13-5 making 10 units the past three seasons. I really like the BYU defensive matchup against Washington. They rank 20th in the nation allowing 22.1 PPG, 12th posting a 0.276 points-per-play allowed ratio, 35th allowing 3.8 RYPC, and 19th allowing 6.4 PYPA. Take BYU.
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12-27-13 | Syracuse +4 v. Minnesota | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
10* graded play on Syracuse as they take on Minnesota in the Texas Bowl set to start at 6:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Syracuse will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like using a combination bet placing an 8* amount using the line and a 3* amount using the money line for an 11* amount play. The respective ground attacks will determine the winner of this game. The SIM shows that Syracuse will gain between 150 and 200 rushing yards and Minnesota will be averaging 4.0 to 4.5 yards-per-rush. Both teams have solid rushing attacks, but Syracuse will have a greater yards-per-carry and have a vastly better passing attack than Minnesota. What I see as a dominant theme will be when Syracuse uses play action where receivers, especially on the perimeter, will be in man coverage. Minnesota's defense will be forced to respect the pass and this will spread the field opening up larger gaps for the ground attack. In past games, Syracuse is a solid 34-12 against the money line (+28.5 Units) when they rush for 150 to 200 yards since 1992. Minnesota is just 8-22 against the money line (-31.1 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt since 1992. Minnesota struggled offensively in the first-half of their 14-3 loss at Michigan State. You can bet that the Syracuse staff has been studying that game film extensively and will utilize every scheme they can with their personnel that MSU used to completely dominate Minnesota's ground attack. HC Kill is just 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game in all games he has coached since 1992. Take Syracuse.
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12-26-13 | Utah State +1 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
10* graded play on Utah State as they take on Northern Illinois in the Poinsettia Bowl set to start at 9:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Utah State (US) will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?26-8 record and has made 20 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (N ILLINOIS) and is an excellent rushing team gaining >=230 RYPG and is now facing an average rushing team gaining between 140 and 190 RYPG, and after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in three straight games. Here is a second system that has gone 42-19 for 69% winners since 2002 and has made 26 units/unit wagered. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (UTAH ST) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games and in a non-conference tilt. Utah State played a vastly more difficult schedule than NI has this season. That stuffer competition is a huge advantage for Utah State and a large negative one for NI. They are led by Heisman Trophy finalist Jordan Lynch, but he alone will not be enough to overcome the stout Utah State defense. Further, NI lost to Bowling Green in the MAC conference Championship Game December 6. Losses of this magnitude have highly negative impacts on teams that were on long and extended winning streaks, especially losses that end BCS Bowl hopes. The US defense ranks 8th in the nation allowing 18.2 PPG, 18th allowing 348 offensive yards, 7th posting a 0.237 points-per-play ratio, third allowing just 2.8 rushing yards per attempt, and 21st allowing 54% completions. NI has simply not faced a tougher opponent all season that what they will see from US in the form of team speed, athleticism, and power. Take Utah State.
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12-26-13 | Pittsburgh v. Bowling Green -6 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
10* graded play on Bowling Green as they take on Pittsburgh in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl set to start at 6:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BG will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?85-38 ATS mark for 69% winners since 2008. Play against any team (PITTSBURGH) after allowing 37 points or more last game and is now facing an opponent after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points. BG hammered NI in the MAC Championship game, which was one of my 10* Titan winners. They are a team that is as strong as they showed in the game and come into this bowl game with tons of confidence and motivation to win. SIM shows they will score 28+ points, will gain between 9.0 and 9.5 net passing yards per attempt; and will rush for 150 to 200 yards. In past games, Pitt is just 0-4 ATS this season and 1-12 ATS the past three seasons when allowing 28+ points; BG is 6-1 ATS this season and 9-1 ATS the past three seasons when gaining 9.0 to 9.5 net passing yards per attempt; 8-1 ATS and 15-1 ATS the last three seasons when scoring 28+ points; 4-0 ATS this season and 6-0 ATS the past three seasons when gaining between 150 and 200 rushing yards. Take Bowling Green
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12-24-13 | Oregon State v. Boise State +3.5 | Top | 38-23 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
10* graded play on Boise State as they take on Oregon State in the Hawaii Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BS will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning this bowl game. Given this favorable projection, I would recommend a combination bet using an 8* amount on the line and a 2.5* amount using the Money Line ONLY if you get at least +135 on the money line. This may require a move to 3 1/2 on the line, which is quite possible given today's steady flow of bets by the public on ISU. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a? 45-19 mark for 70.3% winners and has made 28 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (BOISE ST) after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers. I think the biggest factor in this game is the lack of confidence the OSU team must have entering this game. They have lost five straight games after going 6-1 to start the season. They played very well against Oregon installed as 24 point dog sand losing by just one. But again, this is another heart breaking loss and I am just not sure how much is left in the tank. This will be fast paced style of game which also leads to an increased amount of turnovers. The SIM projects that OSU will have at least three turnovers; that BS will win the turnover battle. In past games, BS is a solid 20-1 against the money line (+19.5 Units) when their defense forces 3 turnovers since 1992; 2-16 against the money line (-15.9 Units) in road games when they commit 1 more turnover than their opponents since 1992. There is another projection calling for BSU to score 28+ points. OSU is just 17-70 against the money line (-65.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Take Boise State. Most importantly, I want to wish ALL of you a Blessed and Merry Christmas.
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12-23-13 | Atlanta Falcons v. San Francisco 49ers -14 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they host the Atlanta Falcons in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. This will be the last game ever played at Candle Stick Park and the atmosphere will be even more supportive for a 49er route in this matchup. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by 17 or more points. SF is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when facing struggling defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) facing weak defensive teams allowing >=375 yards/game over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) facing defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the last 2 seasons. Head Coach Harbaugh is a rock solid 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) facing vulnerable passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of San Francisco. SIM projects that SF will gain more than 6.0 yards-per-play; will gain more than 125 rushing yards and will have between 350 and 400 total offensive yards. In past games, SF is 4-0 ATS this season and 11-0 ATS the past three seasons when gaining 350 to 400 total offensive yards; 2-0 ATS this season and 16-3 ATS the past three seasons when gaining more than 6.0 yards-per-play; 5-1 ATS this season and 16-6 ATS the last three seasons when rushing for more than 125 yards; Atlanta is just 2-7 ATS this season and 8-19 ATS the past three seasons when allowing 6.0 or more yards-per-play. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?43-16 ATS mark for 73% winners since 1983. Play against underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and when playing on Monday night. It stands to reason, that SF will have solid and quite favorable matchups across the LOS and on both sides of the ball. Take San Francisco.
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12-22-13 | Oakland Raiders v. San Diego Chargers -9 | Top | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Diego Chargers as they host the Oakland Raiders in AFC West action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SD will win this game by 13 or more points. Chargers still have slim playoff hopes for securing the second Wild Card, but they will need help with losses from Baltimore and Miami. Both of them could lose today, but the Chargers know a 2-0 end to the season is a must and focusing on this game first is a MUST. SD defense has really come on the month of December and overall they rank 10th allowing 22.2 PPG. Oakland ranks just 26th scoring 21.1 PPG and 26th in third-down conversions. SD offense ranks 4th getting 6.0 YPP and will find it easy to move the chains against the Raiders defense ranking 22nd allowing 5.6 YPP. The Raiders secondary will have massive troubles defending Keenan Allen. He has posted 55 receptions for 821 yards and seven touchdowns. Extrapolated over a 16 game season, that
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12-22-13 | Indianapolis Colts +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 48 h 37 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Indianapolis Colts as they take on the Kansas City Chiefs in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Colts will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and also have a great shot at getting a very important win with significant consequences for both teams. Given these favorable projections, and like the Minnesota Vikings NFC Game of the Year play, I encourage you to consider making a 9* play using the line and a 3* play using the money line. This adds up to 12* totals, but enhances the total return on investment (ROI) in a disciplined manner taking advantage of the strength of this Top rated 10* Titan. The SIM shows that the Colts will be able to move the ball and score between 22 and 28 points. IN past games, the Colts are a solid 4-1 ATS this season and are 11-3 ATS over the past three seasons when scoring between 22 and 28 points. Colts are a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?50-26 mark using the Money Line for 66% winners and has made 30 units per unit wagered since 1983. Play on any team using the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) after a win by 21 or more points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games. Chiefs offense has certainly come to life in recent weeks, but it has been against vastly inferior foes. However, they rank 5th worst with 35 WR dropped passes this season. Smith is very good at not forcing the ball into tight spots where deflections and turnovers can happen. His disciplined style, though, limits the offensive play calling against a pretty darn good Colts defense. The KC defense is quite good, but I do believe the Colts will be able to run the ball well enough to allow Lock to them have opportunities in play action situations. Donald Brown has the fourth highest 'elusive rating' and averages a very strong 3.24 yards after contact. KC corners have been tested and have had very poor gradings in recent weeks. Flowers has been targeted the most at 1 target per 5.1 snaps. He has allowed a career high 818 yards. This is attributed to his new role of being the slot defender and not a shut down corner. Sean Smith is on the other side of the field and like last season, started out very strong, but is again starting to tail off late in the season with a -6.0 grading over the past 6 weeks. With the Colts being able to force KC to respect the run, it will open up huge passing opportunities for Luck in play action as outlined above. Take the Colts.
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12-22-13 | Minnesota Vikings +9 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 14-42 | Loss | -125 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Minnesota Vikings as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Minnesota will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. As many of you know, Minnesota was my NFC Game of the Year winner and they destroyed the Eagles 48-30 as 6 1/2 point dogs. Now, they face a Bengals team looking to secure their playoff position - as did the Eagles. I really like how the Vikings continue to play very hard despite having a lost season under their belt. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-8 ATS mark for 79% winners since 2002. This system has gone 2-0 ATS this season and is 5-1 ATS the past three seasons. Play on road underdogs or pick (MINNESOTA) average passing team averaging between 185and 230 passing yards per game and is now facing an average passing defense allowing between 185 and 230 PYPG after 8+ games of the regular season has been played and after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game. Lewis is just Lewis is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs as the coach of the Bengals. Vikings are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons. Bengals just 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half since 1992. Most people forget that QB Cassel was a starter and a very good one just a few seasons back. He ranks first in the NFL throwing the deep ball (passes greater than 20 yards) with those long balls accounting for 14.4% of all pass attempts he has thrown. He ranks first in the NFL completing 53% of these vertical throws. Last week, Cassel was 4-of-5 on his deep passes, accounting for 39.8% of his total yardage and a big portion of his positive grade. While it wasn
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12-21-13 | USC -6 v. Fresno State | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
10* graded play on University of Southern California as they take on Fresno State in the Las Vegas Bowl set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that USC will win this game by 8 or more points. FSU lost just one game this season, but by comparison played a vastly inferior schedule to teams in the PAC-12. QB Carr had a n excellent season throwing for a nation-best 406 passing yards, 48 TD and just 7 INT. USC has the defensive personnel to contain this aerial assault. The opposite will be true about the FSU defense NOT containing the USC offense. SIM projects that USC will score between 35 and 41 points and will gain at least 450 offensive yards. In past games, USC is 2-0 ATS this season and 5-1 ATS the past three seasons when gaining between 450 and 500 offensive yards. FSU is just 0-2 ATS this season, 2-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 9-24 ATS since 1992 when allowing an opponent to score between 35 and 41 points. Speed will be the evident and most dominant force from the Trojans, especially on defense. I had mentioned the vast difference in SOS between these two teams. FSU has never faced a team with the speed, athleticism, and physicality that USC will bring to this game. Nor can FSU simulate that speed in practice sessions and I strongly believe that it will overwhelming to FSU and will be most evident on their OL attempting to block USC in b.itz pack situations. We are all fully aware of the coaching 'situations' at USC. They are all unfortunate, but now interim HC Clay Helton will have this team focused and looking to play a very strong game. Take the USC Trojans.
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12-16-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Detroit Lions -6.5 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they host the Baltimore Ravens in MNF action set to start at 8:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Detroit will win this game by 9 or more points. It is painfully obvious the ramifications for the loser of this game tonight. With Miami defeating the Patriots, the AFC playoff picture has been clouded even more and the losses by the Cowboys and Eagles combined with the unreal win over Dallas by the Packers has made the NFC North extremely uncertain. Both teams can control their own destiny by winning out, but in this season of inconsistent play, it is very unlikely that either team can win out. What truly matters is tonight's game and Detroit can take a major step forward with a win. In fact, with Chicago and the Packers (Rogers will most assuredly play), the Lions also take a huge step backward with a loss. Ok, enough of the scenarios and let's take a look at a few of the matchups I see leading Detroit to a win. The Lions OL has done a great job this season protecting fifth-year starter Stafford. There are 29 QB, who have been sacked more than him and only Peyton manning has been sacked less. Stafforfd ash improved immensely with his release time and that ahs also contributed to the sound protection. Of the entire group of players on the OL including TE, none have graded below -10 for the season. Riley Reiff has allowed five sacks, but that is over 550 pass block situations on the season. So, I don't see Baltimore being able to get pressure on Stafford and he will be getting the ball out quickly once again. Making matters far worse for the Ravens defense is limiting Calvin Johnson, who leads all receivers with 12 TD and is second with 1348 yards. Ravens will use a mix of Webb, Smith, and Graham in defending Johnson. Graham normally lines up on the left side and this is the matchup Stafford will look to get for Johnson. Graham is a gambling defender that has allowed 7 TD, but has gotten 3 INT. The worst possible defender against Johnson is a gambler, because Johnson has superior speed, size, and uses his body perfectly in shielding a defender from the ball. Many teams have attempted a bracket zone against Johnson and that has failed miserably. This tactic gives Johnson the opportunity to catch short passes and in the add significant yards after the catch because he is so hard to bring down in space. Detroit is a solid 25-6 ATS (+18.4 Units) after gaining 4 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992; 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after being outgained by 200 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Take the Lions.
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12-15-13 | New Orleans Saints v. St. Louis Rams +6.5 | Top | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
10* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they host the New Orleans Saints in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that they will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot at upsetting the Saints. I like making this play using a combination wager using an 8* amount on the line and a 3* amount using the money line for a total of 11* amount wagered. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?26-9 ATS mark for 74% winners since 2002. Play against favorites (NEW ORLEANS) after a win by 14 or more points and is now facing an opponent after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points. Here is an exceptional money line system that has hit 60% winners for a 25-17 mark and has averaged a +190 Dog Play since 2008. Play against favorites using the money line (NEW ORLEANS) off 2 or more consecutive unders and is an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 PPG and is facing a struggling defensive team allowing between 23 and 27 PPG. Rams DE Robert Quinn grades as the best one in the NFL in pass rush. He has an extremely quick first step and gets leverage underneath slower tackles. He also makes it impossible for any tackle to anticipate what direction his path to the QB will originate from pre-snap. Brees is excellent at reading the field and extending plays, however Quinn will force him to throw to his first read. The Saints OL is going to have a tough day giving Brees enough time to get plays made, to keep him being pressured, and to keep him upright. Take the Rams.
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12-15-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +6.5 | Top | 56-31 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the KC Chiefs in AFC West action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by fewer than four points and have a great shot at winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-11 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2002. This system has gone 10-1 ATS over the past three years. I strongly believe the Raider defense will play very well and will hold KC to 21 or fewer points. In past games where the Raiders have held an opponent to 15 to 21 points, they are 3-0 ATS this season and 10-1 ATS over the past three seasons. Charles is a top-5 RB this season. The majority of his rushing yards have been off tackle where he has averaged 6.0 YPC off left tackle and 5.8 YPC off right tackle. The weakness on the Raiders defensive front is the interior and their biggest strengths are on the perimeter. I really like ho Raider QB McGloin has played. He has averaged just 2.65 seconds to pass release compared with a league worst by Pryor at 3.47 seconds. McGloin has been sacked on just 8% of snaps which ranks best among 40 qualifying QB. Take Oakland.
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12-15-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Minnesota Vikings +6 | Top | 30-48 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Minnesota Vikings as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. This is my Game of the Year in the NFC. It is another 10* grading, but there are fundamental matchups that I live a ton and given the success we have enjoyed again this season, adding a responsible amount is a solid strategy. This does not mean that you suddenly bet beyond your means or bet significantly more than the usual 10* amount. I will suggest playing this as a 15* amount, which is 1.5x your normal play. Here is another alternative way to make this play. The simulator shows a high probability that the Vikings will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and have a shot at winning the game as well. Given the favorable projections, I suggest playing this as a 12* play using the line and adding a 3* amount using the money line. Vikings are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. SIM projects that no matter, who the Vikings RB is for this game, the team will average between 4.5 and 5.0 rushing yards per attempt. In past games, when they have allowed this range of rushing yards, the Eagles are 0-6 ATS over the past three seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?86-43 ATS mark for 67% winners since 2002. Play against road teams (PHILADELPHIA) after scoring 30 points or more in their last game and is now facing an opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. This system is 6-1 ATS this season. Here is a second system that has gone 37-13 ATS for 74^ winners since 1983. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) with a struggling first half defense allowing 14 or more points per game, after a loss by 3 or less points. We all know what happened last week in the two snow storm games these teams played. Philadelphia needed 3 1/2 quarters to get their offense untracked in horrific conditions and the Vikings were part of an unreal ending in Baltimore losing by 3 points where the teams combined for 5 TD in the last 2 minutes of play on a truly frozen tundra. Chris Cook and rookie Xavier Rhodes have the abilities to cover well and force Foles into looking to the second and third reads. Foles has been excellent this season and is a dominant reason the Eagles lead the NFC East after a 1-3 start. However, he has had negative grades in his last two games and when forced to go through his progressions, he is making a lot more dangerous throws than in the beginning of their five-game win streak. Rhodes is allowing a reception every 10.3 snaps and allowing a quite strong 78.3 QB rating on passes thrown his way. Foles has averaged 3.08 seconds to release while previous QB Vick was taking 3.38 seconds. This quicker release is the major reason Foles has been so effective, but when forced to hold the ball longer than 3.08 seconds, his effectiveness declines sharply. McCoy is coming off a franchise record rushing day and leads the NFL in rushing. Containing McCoy will certainly take a total team effort, but there are many players on the Minnesota defense that will be able to keep the Eagle running game in check. Defensive tackle, Kevin Williams, has been disruptive and will to eat up blocks preventing the interior of the Eagles line from getting to second level blocks. This has the key to the Eagles' ground game success. Williams ranks 37th among defensive tackles run stop percentage, but Minnesota is even better as a defensive unit with him taking on blocks so the linebackers are free to make the stops on ball carriers. Gerhart will be the likely starter for the Vikings. In limited opportunities he has proven to be tough to take down this year. In his 49 touches he has forced 16 missed tackles, easily one of the best ratios in the league. This will set up play action for Matt Cassell, who has done a great job in the last two games. The Vikings have shown no signs of quitting despite losing the season. Take the Vikings.
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12-14-13 | Army +13 v. Navy | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Army Cadets as they take on the Navy Midshipmen in the annual rivalry competing for the Commander-In-Chief trophy. I am looking for the cover in this matchup and strongly believe this is just too many points to be giving Army, who desperately wants to erase the 11-year Navy domination. The simulator shows a high probability that Army will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. There are several coaching situational trends that support a play on Army. HC Ellerson is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after allowing 37 points or more last game; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. HC Niumatalolo is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game; 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-15 ATS mark for 75% winners since 1992. Play on any team (ARMY) that is an excellent rushing team gaining >=4.8 YPR and is now facing a team with a struggling rushing defense allowing between 4.3 and 4.8 YPR, and after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game. No secret, Army runs the ball more than 80% of all plays. They rank first in the nation averaging 61 rushing plays per game and first averaging 329 rushing yards per game. Navy ranks 85th allowing 192 rushing yards per game. Navy runs the ball a ton too, ranking second with 59 rushing plays per game and third averaging 319 rushing yards per game. Navy has a very poor secondary and San Jose State ripped them up for 440 passing yards on 42-for56 passing. I'm not saying for a minute that Army will suddenly becoming a spread passing offense. I am stating that there will be opportunities to throw the ball off the 'read' fakes essentially play action. Army has shown this tendency in their recent four game stretch. In their last game they threw 21 times and had their passing yards of the season with 152. I strongly believe that Army will throw the ball just enough to force Navy to respect it and this in turn will open up larger alleys for the Army RB to dart through. Take Army.
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12-12-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Denver Broncos -10 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the San Diego Chargers in NFL Thursday Night action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Denver will win this game by at least 13 points. SIM projects that Denver will amass a mini9mum of 450 offensive yards and score at least 28 points. In past games, Denver is 7-4 ATS this season, 20-5 ATS over the past 3 seasons, and 100-28 ATS since 1992 when scoring 28+ points. Denver is also 4-1 ATS this season and 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons when gaining more than 450 offensive yards. SD is just 3-11 ATS over the past three seasons when allowing 28+ points. Moreover, SD is just 2-11 L3 seasons when allowing more than 8.0 net passing yards per attempt and in the same role, Denver is a stout 15-2 ATS. SD ranks 11th in scoring defense allowing 22.4 PPG, but they rank 28th allowing 383 YPG. They are dead last in the NFL allowing 6.3 yards-per-play, 31st allowing 4.8 yards-per-rush, and 31st allowing 79. passing yards per attempt. I strongly believe Denver will look to establish the run game first and then look to play action targeting D. Thomas on the perimeter, who will be in man coverage. The SD secondary is in a big-time mismatch at nearly every level and Thomas represents the most glaring. I just do not see Rivers and their offense being able to keep pace Denver on the scoreboard. Further, with Denver being able to run the ball more tonight than in previous games will allow them an even greater advantage in TOP. When you have the NFL top-rated offense combined with TOP edge, it is a mountain that no team can overcome. Take Denver.
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12-09-13 | Dallas Cowboys -1 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 28-45 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on Chicago in a significant MNF showdown set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by three or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-14 ATS mark for 74% winners since 2007. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) that is a struggling rushing team averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game. SIM shows a projecting call for the Dallas offense to be in strong form tonight and that they will average 5.5 to 6.0 yards-per-play. In past games, the Bears are 0-4 ATS this season and 1-8 ATS the past three seasons when they have allowed between 5.5 and 6.0 yards-per-play. Bears are 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. They will be retiring Mike Ditka's jersey tonight and the fans will be fire up, but it is not near enough to offset the Bear's injuries. The Cowboys secondary has been a severe weakness at times this season. Brandon Carr has been the constant on this unit and has become a solid coverage defender. The Bears have two very strong targets in Marshall and Jeffery and the Cowboys secondary MUST and WILL be highly successful defending the vertical route. McCown will be under center for the Bears and has done a solid job backing up Cutler. I believe that Morris Claiborne is battling just too many injuries and may not play tonight. Dallas will use a myriad of coverage looks pre-snap to change up McCown's reads and will bate him to mistakes. The other facet of this game is that Romo and the offense will control the tempo of the game and will have a decided edge in TOP. Here is the most dominant matchup in this game. DeMarco Murray is Averaging 4.9 yards-per-carry tied for fourth-best in the league and has 25 forced-missed tackles (10th best). He will be called upon more than usual for two reasons; backup Dunbar's season-ending injury last week, and Chicago
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12-08-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -2 | Top | 17-19 | Push | 0 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
10* graded play on the SF 49ers and a 10* play 'OVER' the [posted total in the big showdown with Seattle in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SF will win this game by 6 or more points and there will be a minimum of 45 points scored. Given this favorable projection, I will suggest playing an extra 3* parlay with the 49ers and the 'over' DO NOT play teasers of any kind, especially the three-team 10 point varieties. It may seem a gift to get these lines using the teaser formats, but TRUST me, they are not and are nothing but money burners over the course of a season. HC Harbaugh is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a top-level t winning > 75% of their games in the second half of the season as the coach of SF. Two of the best defenses are featured in this game and that is why the total has been set low by lines makers correctly anticipating the public love of the 'under' in this game. Seattle ranks second in scoring offense and SF 10th. This is where the matchups favor scoring, especially by the 49ers. Despite being the second-best scoring offense, Seattle has a very avergae offensive line with all of them grading modestly negatively for the season. Giacomini has had three nightmare games against the 49ers and I don't see that changing one bit given the very strong play of the SF defensive front of Smith, McDonald, and Dorsey. Wilson has been fantastic in play action, but with the running game not getting untracked, he will need to make plays on his own. Both Wilson and Kaepernick throw deep covering more than 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage on more than 15% of their attempts. Kaepernick uses plenty of play action involving 28.3% of his attempts. The difference in his effectiveness with and without play action is striking. With play action, Kaepernick completes 60.5% of his passes, has eight touchdowns, one interception, averages 8.5 yards per attempt, and has a QB Rating of 113.3. Without play action, his completion percentage drops to 56.7%, he
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12-08-13 | Cleveland Browns +10.5 v. New England Patriots | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 2 h 36 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the New England Patriots in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Cleveland has a very good and vastly under rated defensive unit that ranks first in the NFL allowing just 4.4 yards-per-play and 4th allowing 307 yards-per-game. For the Patriots, Blount took the majority of the snaps as the
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12-08-13 | Miami Dolphins +3.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 1 h 15 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?25-6 ATS mark for 81% winners since 1983. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - average passing team posting between 5.9 and 6.7 PYA and is now facing an average passing defense allowing between 5.9 and 6.7 PYA after 8+ games and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. Antonio Brown has been a huge part of the Steeler offense, but this week the Steelers will be forced to look elsewhere with the presence of Grimes at CB. Grimes is one of the best CB in the NFL and has allowed a passer rating of just 62.6 and has defending 17 passes with 4 INT. He line sup nearly always on the left side so the Steelers will have the option of moving Brown to the other side of the field. Yet, if the Steelers elect to do this, it is in effect eliminating half the field of play due to the presence of Grimes taking it away. This will allow the rest of the 10 defenders to 'lean' to that right side when Brown is on the opposite side of Grimes. It also allows the run defense to shift to their left where the Steelers have run the majority of the time behind RG DeCastro. Miami has the two of the best interior run stoppers in Starks and Soliai, so just in these two matchups, the Pittsburgh offense has their two best options minimized. Take Miami.
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12-07-13 | Stanford v. Arizona State -3.5 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
10* graded play on Arizona State as they take on Stanford in the PAC-12 Championship set to start at 7:45 PM ET in Tempe Arizona. The simulator shows a high probability that ASU will win this game by 6 or more points. One of the key matchups in this game is the veteran ASU defensive front going up against Stanford RB Gaffney. I strongly believe that the ASU defense will dominate the Stanford OL and contain Gaffney's play making abilities. Another matchup and arguably the most dominant one is the ASU passing attack against the Stanford secondary. ASU ranks 7th in scoring offense at 42 PPG and 26th averaging 278 passing yards per game. The Cardinal secondary has allowed 254 passing yards per game ranking them 93rd in the nation. Sun Devil Stadium is a graveyard for many teams including the elite ones. ASU is a solid 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games when facing solid teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992; 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992; HC Graham is a near-perfect 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games versus solid rushing defenses allowing <=120 rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992. Take Arizona State.
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12-07-13 | Texas +16.5 v. Baylor | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -114 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
10* graded play on Texas as they take on Baylor in BIG 12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. There is a ton of pressure squarely on the Baylor football team from all of the media hype about the opportunity to win a conference championship for the first time since 1990 and to win their final home game at their 63-year old Floyd Cast Stadium. Texas also has a shot at a BCS bid with an upset win in this game. I seriously doubt if either coach will allow their team to be watching the scoreboard for the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State showdown. Both teams need Oklahoma to win. That game starts at Noon and will nearing or will already be completed by this game time. The fans will know and that will obviously then be known by the teams. In either outcome, it will put even more pressure on Baylor and is only adding modestly to a mountain of Baylor high expectations. Baylor has the top scoring offense in the nation and is challenging the all-time records set by Army in 1944. Scoring differential is one record that the 1944 Army team will concede to the FSU Seminoles. Baylor defense has allowed 24.1 PPG ranking 36th in the nation and I positively love the Texas matchups. The Texas defense is vastly better than during the first four games where in one of those games they allowed a horrid 550 rushing yards to BYU. Baylor was hammered by Oklahoma State two weeks ago and barely got by TCU, which was one of my Top Rated 108 winners. The matchups favor a line closer to Baylor being favored by 8 points and what is not being considered is how physically and psychologically damaging the OSU loss was on this team. Texas I splaying their best football right now and are a solid 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992. Take Texas.
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12-07-13 | Oklahoma +10.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 33-24 | Win | 100 | 2 h 47 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Oklahoma Sooners as they take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in BIG 12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oklahoma will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I like playing this as 10* play using the line and adding a 1* amount using the ML - just in case the apparently improbable upset occurs. A Cowboys win in Stillwater would clinch a share of the conference title along with the Baylor-Texas winner and send them to a Bowl Championship Series game for the second time in three years. But as Lee Corso loves say, 'not so fast'. In media interviews this week, the Oklahoma players were unanimous and sometimes appeared offended when asked if they enjoyed the role of spoiler in the Bedlam matchup. This is far more about bragging rights then causing OSU to miss out on a BCS game. The key to this matchup is that I strongly believe that the Sooner defense will contain the Cowboy offense and it will start with run stops. Cowboys offense ranks a dismal 70th in the nation converting just 39% of their third down conversions this season. Sooner defense ranks 15th allowing opponents to convert 34% of their third down situations. Stopping the Cowboys on first down sets up the Sooners then to get three-and-outs and get off the field. I also like the Sooners ground attack and here again, this allows for success on first downs and sets up play action to play makers on the perimeter in man coverages. Supporting the play is a MONEY LINE system that has gone 23-16 and has made a whopping 37 units/unit wagered averaging a +230 dog play. Play against a home team using the money line (OKLAHOMA ST) off 3 straight wins against conference rivals and is now facing an opponent off a double digit road win. Take the Sooners.
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12-06-13 | Bowling Green +5.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 47-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
10* graded play on Bowling Green as they take on Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BG will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great opportunity to upset Northern Illinois. Given this favorable projection and the fact that the line has gone from 3 to 4 1/2, I suggest playing this as a 9* amount using the line and a 2* amount using the money line. Bowling Green was 5-3 and then ripped off four impressive wins to get to 9-3 and earn the right to play in the MAC Championship game. Two of these wins were against inferior foes Miami (Ohio) and Eastern Michigan, but the other two were romps against solid opponents in Ohio University (49-0) and Buffalo just last week. In that game against Buffalo, BG won 24-7 and easily covered as 3 1/2 point road favorites. They outgained Buffalo by 259 yards and held them to just 15 rushing yards on 24 carries. BG is a stout 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after outgaining opponents by 175 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. BG has a very strong defense that ranks 5th in the nation allowing 14.4 PPG, 6th allowing 295 yards-per-game, 5th posting a 0.224 opponent points per play, and 3rd allowing 5.5 opponent yards per pass. Moreover, during this win streak, they have not allowed any team to gain more than 100 rushing yards. This is a defense that can shut down Northern Illinois and their QB Jordan Lunch. Take Bowling Green.
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12-05-13 | Houston Texans v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 106 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Jacksonville Jaguars as they host the Houston Texans set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will win this game tonight and get their fourth win of the season. I publish a weekly Power Ratings Quotient sheet, which provides sports handicappers are solid starting point in generating some specific ideas for bets on the current week's card. In the previous matchup, the Jags won 13-7 for their second win and they are now a solid 3-1 since their Week 9 BYE week. In that game, JJ Watt posted one of the best grades EVER by a DE. The Jags still won the game. Houston QB Keenam has the ability to throw the deep ball and does so many times on a roll out. However, the JAX secondary is turning in a solid season. John Cyprien has played inspired coverage since the BYE week grading well in all four games and the return of form of coverage man Dwayne Gratz has been a huge boost. Look for Cecil Shorts to have a big game and perhaps his best game of the season. Houston will brig pressure and give Watts every opportunity sack, pressure, or hurry Henne. However, Henne has proved to be a very competent QB when getting the ball out quickly. he will have a significant matchup advantage targeting Shorts on hook and slant routes throughout this game. Let's not forget Maurice Jones-Drew either as he is coming off solid performances in recent weeks. His ability to run the ball will open the passing game even further for Henne in play action situations. Houston is a money burning 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when facing struggling defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992. Yet, I just outlined, that Jax is a vastly improved team since Week 9. Take Jacksonville.
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12-02-13 | New Orleans Saints +5.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
10* graded play 'UNDER' Sainst/Seahawks.
10* graded play on the New Orleans Saints as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in NFL MNF action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Saints will lose this game by four or fewer points and have an excellent opportunity to win the game. I also have a 10* graded play 'UNDER'. This sets up a very rare and potentially big money maker for us tonight. I suggest playing this as two separate 10* plays and then adding a 2.5* amount using the money line and the 'under' for a parlay. Never consider doing teasers. It is a books biggest money maker and they are impossible to hit over time. So, take my advice on that and simply choose not to play teasers. Seattle has been great defending the pass, but Jimmy Graham presents some very tough matchups for them tonight. The former-third rounder leads all tight ends in yards (946), targets (95), catches (65), and TD catches (11). He won a battle against Arizona DB Peterson, who is arguably the fastest and quickest player in the league. The only game where he was stifled was against the Patriots where they used Talib to cover him on every down. Just the presence of Graham creates opportunities all over the field for Brees to setup. The Seattle defense will be without starter Browner and backup Thurmond leaving 2011 sixth-rounder Maxwell to fill the void. Marshon Lynch against the Saints defensive front is another key matchup. The Saints run defense has allowed only two 100+ rushers in Chris Ivory and Doug martin this season. They also rank 6th in the NFL allowing just 6.1 passing yards per pass play. They have tackled in space extremely well and limited yards after the catch. This game will take on a chess match of sorts with field position being valued much more than vertical risk taking. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?82-40 mark for 67% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites (SEATTLE) after a game where they forced four or more turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. Supporting the 'UNDER" play is a system that has gone 24-5 ATS for 83% winners since 1983. Play 'under' with home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SEATTLE) and is an excellent passing team gaining >=7.3 PYA and is now facing an average passing defense allowing between 5.9 and 6.7 PYA after 8+ games and after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. Payton is a rock solid 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when facing very good offensive teams scoring 27 or more points/game as the coach of the Saints. |
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12-01-13 | St. Louis Rams v. San Francisco 49ers -7 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the St. Lois Rams in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SF will win this game by 10 or more points. Here are some supporting game situations. Rams are just 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games when facing solid teams outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992; SF is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when facing struggling passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; Rams are just 10-28 ATS (-20.8 Units) revenging a same season loss against opponent since 1992. Rams HC Fisher is an imperfect 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games revenging a home loss against opponent by 14 points or more in all games he has coached since 1992; Harbaugh is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when facing inconsistent defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play as the coach of SF. Crabtree is back making his 2013 debut and he will be gradually worked into the scheme. However, he provides yet another weapon for Kaepernick to target, which opens up more space for the power running game of Gore and ball possession pass plays to Davis. SIM projects that Kaepernick will average 8.0 or more net passing yards per attempt. In past games, the Rams are just 1-3 ATS this season and 2-9 ATS the last three seasons when allowing that 8.0 or more net passing yards per attempt. In the same manner, the SF are a 5-0 ATS this season and 15-3 ATS the L3 seasons when gaining 8.0 or more net passing yards. Take the 49ers.
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12-01-13 | Miami Dolphins v. NY Jets OVER 40 | Top | 23-3 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
10* graded play on 'OVER' Miami/NY Jets in AFC East action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that more than 41 points will be scored in this game. The obvious mismatch is the Jets DL against the makeshift Miami OL. however, when you look at these matchups more closely they are not as wide as you would expect. The Jets DL is a very good one and arguably the best in the AFC. Wilkerson is second to only Watt for 4-3 DE this season. Richardson and Harrison are great run stoppers and get plenty of push at the LOS. However, Miami QB Tannehill ranks 7th in average time to throw a pass and his quick hitters certainly will minimize the Jets pass rush. The Dolphins will use the quick-hitting passing game with Brian Hartline, Rishard Matthews and Charles Clay. This essentially establishes the ground attack and these plays are designed to maximize yards after the catch. This in turn will set up time using play action for the deep shots to Mike Wallace to develop. If there
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12-01-13 | Arizona Cardinals +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles with huge playoff implications for both teams. The simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game. Eagles are coming off the BYE week and need to win to keep pace with the Dallas Cowboys. JHC Chip Kelly named Foles his starting QB and now there is the added pressure for the offense to perform well to avoid having the reemergence of the QB debate take hold again. Arizona has the 7th best defensive unit in the NFL and will be by far the best defense Foles will see in more than a month. Arizona is on a four game win streak and scoring 27 PPG during this run. One of the best matchups for Arizona is DB Peterson going up against Desean Jackson. Peterson is one of the few DB that will follow the opponent's best receiver no matter where he lines up. Jackson has tremendous speed and has been able to beat DB and zones with that speed. however, Peterson is on the fastest players in the NFL and his closing speed is second to none. I strongly believe that Peterson will minimize Jackson's impact. QB Palmer is going to have extra time to throw the ball and get through his progressions as the Eagles have been largely inconsistent in the pass rush department. Arizona defense ranks 4th allowing 4.8 yards-per-play and I do strongly believe they can and will contain one of the best offenses in the NFL. Arizona is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when facing inconsistent defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Philadelphia is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when facing solid passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last two seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-11 ATS for 78% winners since 2002. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARIZONA) after 2 consecutive game where they committed no turnovers. This system is 3-1 ATS this season and 13-4 ATS over the past three seasons. Take Arizona.
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11-30-13 | Clemson v. South Carolina -3 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
10* graded play on the South Carolina as they take on Clemson in a huge CFBN game set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SC will win this game by 5 or more points. Let's take a look at some of the game situations. Spurrier is a solid 22-6 ATS (+15.4 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of SC; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) as a home favorite of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992; 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 58-21 mark using the money line and has made 44 units/unit wagered since 1992 and has averaged a +111 DOG play. When isolating just slight favorites this system has done remarkably well posting a 27-11 mark. I will not be playing this game as a ML wager, but it you are a ML player, then I strongly believe that is a good move as the risk-reward profile and ROI is excellent. Here is a second ML system that has gone 33-5 for 87% winners since 1992 and is 5-0 this season. Play on a home team using the money line (S CAROLINA) in a game involving two explosive offensive teams scoring >=34 PPG and after a win by 35 or more points. The word is preparation for this matchup and no one prepares better for big games than Spurrier. His record speaks for itself and I am confident he will have his team ready to play their best game this season. Take the Gamecocks.
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11-30-13 | Tennessee v. Kentucky +4 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
10* graded play on Kentucky as they take on Tennessee in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Kentucky will win this game and taking the points is an added gift. I believe there is a possibility this line could lift to four during the day. This will also move the money line to a favorable level to execute a combination bet. I would suggest playing a 10* play on the line and then adding a 2* amount using the money line on Kentucky. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?49-36 mark using the money line for 58% winners and has made a whopping 49 units/unit wagered averaging a +180 DOG play since 1992. It is 2-0 making 3.0 units this season. Play against a road team using the money line (TENNESSEE) after scoring and allowing 17 points or less and is now facing an opponent after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games. This system is a remarkable 10-2 making 18.4 units/unit wagered over the last three seasons. The Kentucky offense has sputtered all season, but it has been against SEC foe. Now, they have a shot at getting the offense rolling against a very poor Tennessee defensive unit. The SIM shows that Kentucky will score 28 or more points. In past games, Tennessee is just 1-11 against the money line (-11.3 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons.
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11-30-13 | Baylor v. TCU +14.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
10* graded play on TCU as they take on Baylor in Big 12 action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TCU will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I also like making this a 10* play using the line and adding a 1.5* amount using the money line. Oklahoma State has showed the 'recipe' used to defeat Baylor and you can bet that TCU will have watched that game film extensively. TCU has the secondary to challenge BU's offense, much like OSU did, so think twice before automatically slotting this game into Baylor's win column. Every season, there are a few teams that come out of nowhere to reach BCS Bowl considerations. Then there is the one game that ends the dream and it is then very difficult for that team to finish the season strong. The reason is confidence. Baylor had been playing with immense confidence until getting hammered by Oklahoma State. Now, the mindset of the team is that we were not really as good as we thought we were and that is extremely difficult for any coaching staff to over come. TCU is a stout 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games after a bye week since 1992; 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. HC Patterson is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games after a bye week as the coach of TCU. TCU ranks 12th in the nation allowing 3.2 yards per rush and ranks 14th allowing just 52% pass completions. TCU may have a losing record, but their team matches up very well against the one-loss Baylor Bears, who are still trying to believe what happened to them last week against Oklahoma State. Take TCU.
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11-30-13 | Florida State v. Florida UNDER 48.5 | Top | 37-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 50 m | Show |
10* graded play on 'UNDER' FSU/Florida in CFB action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 44 points will be scored in this game. Much attention has been brought to the record-setting FSU offense, but as I had stated 8 weeks ago when I made my prediction and bet that FSU would win the National Championship, it is their defense that is absolutely incredible. Florida is playing in the Swamp and this is their bowl game after a very disappointing season marred by a gauntlet of injuries. They are still quite talented on defense and I believe they can keep FSU to under 35 points in this game. FSU knows they are just 60 minutes from the National Championship game and the game plan will be to play mistake free on offense and not give Florida any short field scoring opportunities to work with. The FSU defense will be on display and a shutout is quite possible. The speed, strength, and athleticism of the FSU defense is second to none. FSU ranks 3rd in the nation allowing 11.9 PPG, fifth allowing 282 offensive yards per game, best posting a 0.186 opponent points per play ratio, second with a 3.9 opponents YPP, third allowing 28.4% third down conversions, ninth allowing 3.1 yards per rush, and second allowing 5.3 yards per pass play. The Florida offense is rebuilding after a series of injuries. and I do not see them being able to produce long time consuming scoring drives. FSU does have that ability and they will have a very big edge in TOP. They rank best in the nation in points per play at 0.782, but as I said, they will not need to the 'big play' always in this matchup. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?22-3 'UNDER' record for 88% winners since 1992. Play 'under' with all teams in a conference tilt where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (FLORIDA ST) and is a dominant team outgain opponents by 100+ YPG) and is now facing an average team +/- 50 YPG after 7+ games of the regular season have been played. Take the 'UNDER'
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11-29-13 | Fresno State v. San Jose State +9.5 | Top | 52-62 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
10* graded play on San Jose State as they host Fresno State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SJS will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great opportunity to post an upset win. Given these favorable projections, I suggest playing it as a 10* play using the line and adding a 2* amount using the money line. With Carr under center for the Bulldogs and SJS riddled with injuries, you would think that FSU will easily win this game, especially knowing they have been passed by Northern Illinois as the top non-automatic qualifying candidate for one of the top postseason games. However, this is a true rivalry game and although it never gets the media attention that say, the Iron Bowl does, it is still filled with very hard and spirited play - especially by the so-called underdogs, who have something to prove. The public is all over FSU for these and other reasons. In fact, the level of irrational exuberance has reached bettering extremes with more than 81% of all bets being placed on FSU. Of the 12 books I track, when ever the level reaches 71% it is a red flag and becomes increasingly more irrational the higher the percentage reaches. This technical tool serves ONLY to reinforce the grading by the SIM and by itself is never a reason that I would make a play. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?66-36 ATS mark for 65% winners since 2008. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (FRESNO ST) after a game where they forced no turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers. One of the keys to this game will be the ability of SJS to establish a ground game. The SIM projects they will and will gain between 125 and 150 rushing yards. In past games, SJS is 7-1 ATS when rushing for 125 to 150 yards over the last three seasons. The SIM also projects that FSU will allow 450 to 500 total offensive yards and in past games when allowing this range, they are just 7-26 ATS since 1992. Here is a money line system that has produced a 16-10 mark making 27.4 units/unit wagered and has averaged a +235 dog play since 1992. Play on home underdogs using the money line (SAN JOSE ST) in a game involving two excellent offensive teams gaining >=440 YPG and after 7+ games and after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. Take San Jose State.
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11-29-13 | Texas State +7 v. Troy | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 47 m | Show |
10* graded play on Texas State as they take on Troy in Sun Belt Conference action set to start at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TS will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at getting the upset win. Given these favorable projections, I always like taking advantage of an additional Money Line play as long as the Return-on-investment (ROI) warrants. In this case, the ROI is quite favorable so I suggest playing a 10* amount using the line and adding a 2* amount using the money line. Texas State is 6-5 and bowl eligible, but obviously adding this win at Veterans Memorial Stadium would certainly heighten bowl interest. TS is just 2-4 in conference play and truly needs this win over a 3-3 conference Troy team. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?60-14 mark for 81% winners using the money line since 1992. Play on a road team using the money line (TEXAS ST) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival and with a winning record on the season playing a losing record team. I truly love the ground attack of TS matched up against the Troy run stop scheme. TS runs the ball 60% of the time and averages 158 rushing yards per game. This will set up play action for TS where the Troy secondary has been strugglign all season. Take Texas State.
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11-28-13 | Texas Tech v. Texas UNDER 67 | Top | 16-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
10* graded play on 'UNDER' Texas/Texas Tech in CFB action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 65 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?64-30 'under' record for 68% winners since 1992. Play 'under' the posted total with any team against the total (TEXAS TECH) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. 43 of the 64 winning plays based on this system covered the total by seven or more points. Texas runs the ball 54% of the time and you can bet that power game will be in display in this matchup. Both teams are not elite when based on points-per-play with TT ranking 61st at 0.382 and Texas 52nd at 0.404. TT runs a fast paced offense, but have not finished off drives with nearly as much scoring as in years past. Further, given the Texas defense that ahs improved throughout the season, I don't see TT being able to attack them with a barrage of pass plays. Opponents have obviously gone after TT's struggling run defense. In their last game, Baylor gained 340 rushing yards on 57 carries. Prior to that K-State gained 291 rushing yards on 45 carries. Game before that Oklahoma State gained 281 rushing yards on 51 carries. Prior to that Oklahoma rushed the ball for 277 yards on 50 carries. I think you see the trend developing here and that there is a very high probability Texas will have 50 or rushing lays and that leads to extended scoring drives and a big advantage in TOP. This also keeps the Texas defense very fresh and fully capable of shutting down TT offense much in the way Baylor did after TT had the fast start. In this game, there will be no fast start and Texas will control the pace of play and the 'UNDER' is the call.
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11-28-13 | Oakland Raiders v. Dallas Cowboys -9.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Oakland Raiders in NFL action set to start at 4:30 PM ET, Thanksgiving Day. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 13 or more points. Although Dallas has struggled to get even a two-game winning streak this season, those chances all happened on the road. They are coming off a big-time momentum booster defeating division rival NY last Sunday and now have a great opportunity to get two straight wins against a Raider team that has struggled mightily on both sides of the ball. Dallas ranks fifth in the NFL averaging 27.1 PPG and they will be going up against a Raider defense that has allowed 66% completions that ranks 27th in the NFL. The one matchup that I strongly believe will be dominated by the Dallas defensive front is stopping the Raiders ground attack. The season stats would say otherwise, but the Cowboy defensive front played their best game of the season against the Giants. They were humiliated by the Saints and the week off during the BYE was a great period for the team to work on what was going wrong. Dallas is getting better, not yet the defense we thought they might have at the beginning of the season, and Romo is playing at a very high level. Stopping the Raiders ground attack will be the first priority with the second being able to establish a three-score or more lead. I strongly believe they accomplish both. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?39-17 ATS mark for 70% winners since 2002. Play on favorites (DALLAS) that is a struggling defensive team allowing >=370 YPG and is now facing an equally poor defensive team allowing between 335 to 370 YPG with the current game being played after 8+ games. This underscores my beliefs above, in that Dallas' defense is playing vastly better right now, than their season stats have indicate. Oakland has not shown any improvement. Take Dallas.
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11-25-13 | San Francisco 49ers -4 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on Washington in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by 7 or more points. Several game situations support the 49ers with an easy cover tonight. They are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons. HC Harbaugh is a solid 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when facing struggling defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play. Redskins HC Shanahan is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?23-5 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2002. Play against home underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) off a road loss against a division rival and with the current game being played in November. Kaepernick is going to have a big night and perhaps his best of the season. His struggles have been due to injuries in the receivers with Davis nursing a hamstring and Crabtree still out recovering from an achilles. However, for the first time this season Davis is healthy and Crabtree may be back next week. Brooks, who primarily plays on the left side, was involved in the controversial sack of Drew Brees last week that was nullified and deemed a 15-yard penalty helping the Saints win the game. Brooks, who got paid last season, currently leads all 49ers in sacks and has another seven QB knockdowns and 15 hurries on his 2013 resume. he will be going up against Tyler Polumbus, who has turned around this season from a horrendous 2012 season. Still, I think Polumbus will struggle against the speed, strength, and athleticism of Brooks. Kaepernick will be able to open up the playbook a bit tonight. There is no one on the Washington defense capable of covering Davis in space and he will be a great vertical opportunity down the seems. Take the 49ers.
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11-24-13 | Dallas Cowboys +2.5 v. NY Giants | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the NY Giants in NFC East action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game. I like splitting this wager into a 10* amount using the line and adding an optional 2* amount using the money line. The Dallas defense has been scorched this season and rank near the bottom in all major categories. Now, they are coming off a BYE week and this added rest and preparation work will make a huge difference in this matchup. In first meeting the Dallas DL was the dominant force pressuring Manning on 43% of his drop backs and 23 of the 24 pressures came from the front four without the need for blitzes. Giants Will Beatty was defeated badly in Week 1, but has since righted the ship and will do better this time around. However, there is no denying that Dallas is going to bring pressure the majority of the time knowing that the Giants cannot run the ball effectively against them - or anyone for that matter. Giants rank 25th running the ball 24 plays per game and 28th gaining just 77 rushing yards per game. Miles Auston, who should be near 100% healthy this week, caught 10 of his 11 targets for 72 yards in Week 1. As he so often does, TE Jason Whitten abused the Giants
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11-24-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cleveland Browns -1 | Top | 27-11 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 45 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in an AFC North showdown set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will win this game by at least three points. Browns have a stout defense, especially against the run. SIM projects that the Steelers will not gain more than 75 rushing yards. In past games, the Steelers are just 3-12 ATS the past three seasons and 15-54 ATS since 1992 when the have rushed for fewer than 75 yards. Cleveland is 5-1 ATS the past three seasons and 33-5 ATS when they hold an opponent to less than 75 rushing yards. Browns defense ranks best in the NFL allowing 4.4 Yards-per-play and third allowing 3.5 rushing-yards-per-play. I expect the Steelers to have problem sin the passing game. Steelers have had two excellent seasons from WR Brown and Cotchery, but in today's matchup Brown will be covered by Joe Haden, who is off the two best performances f the season by any DB. In Weeks 9 and 11, he allowed three completions for just 21 yards and had three INT. Steelers LB corp have had massive struggles and I expect Campbell to be able to execute high percentage passes to various WR. Josh Gordon is a huge weapon in man coverage off of play action. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?48-21 ATS mark for 70% winners since 1983. Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PITTSBURGH) off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog and after the first month of the season. Take the Browns.
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11-24-13 | NY Jets +4 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 50 m | Show |
10* graded play on the New York Jets as they take on the Baltimore Ravens in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Jets will win this game. Given the favorable projections I will suggest playing this game as a 8.5* amount using the line and a 1.5* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-12 mark for 73% winners since 2008. Play on road teams (NY JETS) off a road loss with the game taking place in November. Here is a second system that has gone 35-12 ATS for 75% winners since 2002. Play on road teams (NY JETS) after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games with the current game taking place in weeks 10 through 13. The Jets young defensive front is one of the best in the AFC. Wilkerson is a terror and has had only three games without a sack. I see Baltimore Center Gradkowski as the weak link on the Ravens OL and it is that are where the Jets will elect to bring occasional pressure. The Ravens can't really double team Wilkerson as it will then allow Richardson and Coples to step up and make big plays. The Jets ground attack will be featured throughout this game. Ivory has been the leader recently with 73 carries in his last four games. The Jets OL has not graded well in run blocking, but it has improved with the emergence of Ivory. I do like the matchup of the Jets ground attack against the Ravens defensive front. This will allow Smith to play a more composed and relaxed game and not be pressured into trying to make high risk plays to move the chains. Take the Jets.
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11-23-13 | Arizona State -3 v. UCLA | Top | 38-33 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
10* graded play on Arizona State as they take on UCLA in a huge PAC-12 matchup set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that ASU will win this game by 7 or more points. I still like playing this as a 10* play using the line as there the risk/reward of playing the ML is not justified. That is not because I think ASU may not win the game but rather the Return-On-Investment quotient (ROI) that I use and had also used during my Wall Street career trading currencies and international debt instruments. ASU leads the PAC-12 South Division by one game over UCLA and USC, who they have already defeated. This program has had a 2-year goal to go to the Rose Bowl and the only item left to accomplish that is to defeat UCLA today. ASU gets the job done in the turnover department in nearly every game by virtue of their turnover margin. UCLA is just 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-25 mark using the Money Line and has made a whopping 50 units/unit wagered averaging a +188 dog play. Play against a home team using the money line (UCLA) after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better and is now facing an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Here is a second money line system that has produced a 35-17 record for 67% winners and has made 44 units per unit wagered since 2008 and has averaged a +175 dog play. Play on road team using the money line (ARIZONA ST) in a game involving two good teams outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP and after 7+ games have been played. ASU has the vastly better defense in this matchup and arguably the superior offense as well. ASU has been very successful shutting down the ground attack and forcing teams to throw into the true strength of their defense. ASU offense ranks 9th getting 41 PPG, 24th getting 470 yards-per-game, and have a fantastic FG kicker that his hit 95% of his attempts on the season. So, I see this as a chance to get ona dog with the better OL and DL and the better special teams and receive points. Take ASU
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11-23-13 | Oregon v. Arizona +20.5 | Top | 16-42 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
10* graded play on Arizona as they host Oregon in PAC-12 action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. This play marks the third straight time I have played against Oregon with Stanford winning SU and Utah giving the Ducks a very tough game before their starting QB went down to concussion and Oregon pulled away. Utah still covered a very juicy 28 1/2 point spread and were tied 14-14. The key fact is that QB Mariota is hurt. To what degree is not fully known since Oregon will not discuss injuries with the media. he ahs played with a knee brace since getting the injury in the UCLA game. He has stated that his mobility is not limited by the brace, but what defenses are showing him pre-snap. I believe it is a combination of the two factors. he is hobbled with the brace and negative rushing yards for the second straight game and opposing teams have been pouring over the Stanford game to prep for the Ducks offense. The true advantage of this matchup lies with the Arizona ground attack that ranks 10th averaging 50 rushes per game and 11th averaging 259 rushing yards per game. This is the perfect matchup for Arizona as it will set up play action pass plays in man coverage situations and also will give Arizona a huge edge in TOP. Strong ground attack and ball control are the two top ingredients necessary to compete with Oregon for four quarters. Take Arizona.
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11-23-13 | Michigan State v. Northwestern +7.5 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
10* graded play on Northwestern as they take on Michigan State in Big Ten action set to start at Noon ET. PM. The simulator shows a high probability that Northwestern will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a shot at winning the game. Their 4-6 record is just not reflective of the strength of the Northwestern team. MSU may have 1 loss on the season, but their SOS has been one of the weakest in the Big Ten. This will be MSU's stiffest test since losing at Notre Dame in Week 4. What I like most about this matchup is the Northwestern defense that the SIM projects will hold MSU to 21 or fewer points. In past games, MSU is 0-1 ATS this season, 2-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 12-34 ATS since 1992 when they have scored between 15 and 21 points. The MSU defense ranks very high in nearly all of the major statistical categories, but again I point out their strength of schedule is very weak. MSU offense is a highly suspect unit that ranks 101st averaging 4.8 yards-per-play and 95th averaging 359 yards-per-game. It is a highly predictive offense with few wrinkles. They run the ball 57% of the time and I believe the Northwestern defensive front will contain the ground game and force MSI into 2nd and 3rd and long situations. Northwestern ranks 35th allowing 5.1 yards-per-play and 50th allowing 4.0 rushing-yards-game and this has been attained against significantly tougher competition than what MSU has faced this season. Take Northwestern.
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11-23-13 | Oklahoma v. Kansas State -5 | Top | 41-31 | Loss | -106 | 2 h 51 m | Show |
10* graded play on Kansas State as they take on Oklahoma in a huge BIG 12 showdown set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability K-State will win this game by seven or more points. Sooner HC Stoops, who played for HC Snyder and then was part of his coaching staff, looks to become the greatest winning coach in Sooner history. he is currently tied with Swtzer with 157 wins, but based on my research that celebration will have to wait at least another week. Sooners have essentially three quality QB that can lineup under center and as has been the case all season Stoops has not declared a starter. Still, teams, like Kansas State can prepare for this game knowing they will see all three of them at some point in various situations in the game. I view the defensive units as near equals in this matchup, but K-State has a tremendous advantage on the offensive side. Both teams can run the ball well, but K-State has a much more balanced attack. K-State ranks 11th with a 0.522 points-per-play ration, 6th converting 52% of their third down situations, 23rd averaging 210 RYPG, and 9th averaging 9.0 yards-per-pass. It is the last ranking that K-State will be able to exploit. They use a passing game with high percentage passes designed to maximize yards after the catch. K-State HC Snyder is a resounding 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games. SIM shows a projection calling for K-State to score 28+ points in this game. Sooners are just 1-11 ATS the past three seasons and 12-61 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28+ points in a game. K-State is 5-2 ATS this season and 19-4 ATS the past three seasons when scoring 28+ points in a game. Take K-State.
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11-21-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +10 | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the New Orleans Saints in NFL Thursday Night Football action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Falcons will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I also LOVE playing this as a money line combination bet. I will suggest playing a 10* play using the line and adding a 2.5* amount using the money line. I have seen lines as high as +375 on the money line and I believe that if you are patient this line could climb to 10 1/2 and sport near +400 on the money line. I am not saying this is a LOCK and I never use that word. However, when I make these plays/investments over the course of the season, the return on investment (ROI) becomes very high and very real. Even the struggling teams in the NFL have a tendency to bounce back with a much improved performance, especially against the elite opponents. Falcons have displayed this tendency and are a solid 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?75-39 ATS mark for 66% winners since 1983. Play on home teams (ATLANTA) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games and is a terrible team winning <=25% of their games and is now playing a team with a winning record with the current game being played in the second half of the season. Fortunately, Steven Jackson has returned to the lineup and last week he showed some of his tackle-breaking ability against the Bucs. Although Jackson gained just 41 yards on 11 carries, 33 of those yards came after contact and he forced four missed tackles. Atlanta desperately needs some balance right now, and Jackson has the ability to plug away and help keep the chains moving. Of course, better run blocking wouldn
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11-21-13 | Rutgers +17.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights as they take on UCF in CFB action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Rutgers will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. UCF is just not playing well as evidenced by their near losses to Houston and Temple. They were 13 1/2 point favorites against Houston and had to fight down the stretch just to get away with a 19-14 home win. Then things worsened as they fell behind a 1-win Temple team and required a TD catch late in the fourth quarter that will be an ESPY Finalist. They won 39-36 and were 17 1/2 point favorites. Rutgers is a vastly better team than Temple and has had games to review what Houston and Temple did to squash the UCF offense. I like Rutgers too, as a 5* First half play and this is well supported by a super system that has hit 81% winners since 2002. Play against home favorites using the 1rst half line (UCF) that are off 2 straight wins against conference rivals and is now facing an opponent off a home blowout loss by 28 points or more. Rutgers is coming off a horrid losing 52-17 to a near-equal Cincinnati team. UCF is missing several starters due to injuries and some are listed as probable, but even if they play at 80%, I strongly believe Rutgers will be able to accomplish exactly what Temple did last week. Take Rutgers.
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11-21-13 | Rice v. UAB +18 | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
10* graded play on Alabama-Birmingham as they host Rice in CFB action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UAB will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. UAB is a rock solid 27-8 ATS (+18.2 Units) after a 2 game road trip since 1992; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-12 ATS mark for 77% winners since 1992. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (UAB) after being outgained by 225 or more total yards in their previous game and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning from last year's team. 25 of the 39 winners covered the spread by 7 or more points and this under scores my strong belief that this will end up being a single digit result. The SIM projects that UAB will score 28 or more points and this has not been good news for backers of Rice in this situation. Note, that Rice is just 4-11 ATS over the past three seasons and 44-90 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28+ points in a game. Take UAB.
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11-20-13 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo +3 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
10* graded play on Toledo as they take on Northern Illinois in MAC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. I also have a 5* play 'UNDER' the posted total and would recommend a 2* parlay using the money line and the 'under'. The simulator shows a high probability that Toledo will win this game and that there will be less than 70 points scored in this game. SIM projects that Toledo will score 28 or more points and this is not good news for Northern Illinois. In past games, NO is just 0-2 ATS this season and 2-11 ATS the past three seasons when allowing 28+ points in a game. They are 0-5 ATS when allowing 28 to 35 points over the past three seasons. Toledo is 6-1 ATS this season and 16-9 ATS the past three seasons when scoring 28+ points. Moreover, the SIM projects that Toledo will gain more than 500 offensive yards. In past games, Toledo is 4-0 ATS this season, 10-4 ATS the past three seasons, and 36-8 ATS since 1992 when gaining 500+ offensive yards. NI has Jordan Lynch, who should be in the Heisman conversation as he has been the dominant player in both the passing and running game that has earned NI the Top-20 ranking they enjoy. However, Toledo bring the top ground attack in the MAC and Fluellen has been upgraded to probable. Since his achilles strain, freshman Kareem Hunt has been tremendous and the two together will be very tough for the NI defensive front to contain. Take Toledo for 10*, the 'under' for 5*, and a 2* parlay using Toledo (ML) and the 'under'.
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11-18-13 | New England Patriots +3 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
10* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Carolina Panthers in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game. We are now at the point of the NFL season where the surprises are quite evident. After a 1-3 start and Carolina fans calling for HC Ron Rivera's job, the Panthers have won 5 straight games. I had noted in yesterday's winning report on the Denver Broncos that KC had not defeated a team with a winning record yet this season. Carolina had that dubious distinction until they got a very impressive road win in SF last week. The Patriots have once again managed injuries in perfect order and now have two weapons returning to the lineup in Aquib Talib and Shane Vereen. The media attention is always focused on QB Brady, but what has gone largely unnoticed is the emergence of the Patriots ground attack. The most important return to the Patriots offense has been TE Rob Gronkowski, who has been the leading target for Brady in two of the three games he has played. Gronkowski ahs graded in the Top-5 of TE in run blocking in each of his first three seasons. Carolina has some very good coverage LB in Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly, but they have yet to face a team with the balance exhibited by the Patriots. The Carolina success has been predicated on a strong power running game and a stout defense. Jerod Mayo was lost for the season and in typical Patriots plug-and-play fashion, Brandon Spikes has become the NFL leader in run defense. DE Nonlovich ranks second among NFL DE in run stop grade. With Spikes ability to consistently blow up blockers, I strongly believe the Patriots will keep Carolina to a less than 125 rushing yards. The Carolina defensive front led by Greg Hardy and rookie of the year candidate Lotulelei, but the Patriots OL has developed into a strong group. Watch LT Nate Solder, who has become one of the best LT in the NFL and one that I strongly believe will completely protect Brady's blind side tonight. Belichick is a solid 40-19 ATS (+19.1 Units) as an underdog as the coach of the Patriots; 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games off a home blowout win by 21 points or more; 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) when facing strong defensive teams allowing <=285 yards/game in games played in the second half of the season. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?60-28 ATS mark for 68% winners since 2007. Play against favorites (CAROLINA) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games with the current game being played in November. Take the Patriots.
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11-17-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Denver Broncos -7.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 103 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the Kansas City Chiefs in AFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Denver will win this game by 10 or more points. KC is a perfect 9-0 on the season, but not one of their opponents has a winning record on the season. Hard to believe, but only the Dallas cowboys at 5-5 are the only team not have a losing record in the Chiefs 9 game win streak. The Chiefs defense knows that Manning has liked to stretch defenses in the vertical routes with 50% of his passes being 20+ yards. The Denver WR corps are excellent at getting separation and in this matchup, I strongly believe Manning will look to dissect the KC defense with underneath routes and look for the WR to get better than 50% of he passing yards after the catch has been made. The one weapon that Manning has that KC will have vast trouble defending is TE Julius Thomas. The third year pro is playing at a level that no other TE has matched and that includes Saints TE Graham. This is the nightmare situation for the Chiefs and if forced to double team him with a bracket coverage scheme, it will put Welker, D. Thomas, or Eric Decker in man situations. Manning averages a league-low 2.35 seconds to release the ball, which negates the Chiefs blitz schemes and will allow for the ground attack to work as well. Denver is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. SIM projects a high probability that Denver will have between 300 and 350 passing yards in this game. In past games, Denver is 4-0 ATS this season and 10-2 ATS the past three seasons when gaining between 300 and 350 passig yards. Take Denver.
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11-17-13 | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the New Orleans Saints in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will lose this game by fewer than 3 points. Given the favorable projections, I like making this play as an 8* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line. Kaepernick's struggles are not all his doing. he is missing Crabtree, who will be in a few weeks and has had the luxury of one of the best RB in the game in Frank Gore. He is an elite back, who has 13 runs of 15+ yards ranking him second best in the NFL. The Saints defense that ranked near the bottom in all categories the past two years has improved to a middle of the pack unit. However, their run defense is not strong. I expect the 49ers to run Gore at ILB Curtis Lofton, who has 14 total missed tackles, that is second worst in the league. Moreover, the Saints safety Malcolm Jenkins ranks 75th out of 85 safeties in run defense. Another 49er matchup advantage is with T Joe Staley, who will minimize Cameron Jordan, who has been the leading pass rusher for the Saints. Staley was the best tackle in the NFL in 2012 and now he has greatly improved his pass protection skills. The connection between Brees and TE Graham has led to the Saints surge in the NFC standings. The majority of these plays have been big play vertical routes. The 49ers have one of the best duos in the game in Reid and Whitner. The duo has combined for quarterbacks completing just 21 of 46 pass attempts for 296 yards and a 49 QB rating, and NO TD. Graham is also nursing an injury, which will slow him down as well. SF is a rock solid 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team winning > 75% of their games over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when facing inconsistent defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. SIM projects that SF will score 28 or more points, will gain 5.5 or more yards per rushing attempt, and will gain between 350 and 400 total offensive yards. In past games, the 49ers are 6-0 ATS this season and 17-2 ATS the past three seasons when scoring 28 or more points; 3-0 ATS this season and 10-0 ATS the past three seasons when they have gained between 350 and 400 total offensive yards; 10-1 ATS the past three seasons when they have gained 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt. Take the San Francisco 49ers.
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11-17-13 | NY Jets v. Buffalo Bills +2 | Top | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they take on the NY Jets in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Buffalo will win this game by three or more points. Good thing that this game is starti9ng at 1:00 PM ET as a very rare and extremely large severe weather pattern rolls east throughout the afternoon that is expected to produce numerous tornados and extreme 80 to 100 MPH straight line winds. So, weather will not be a factor in this game, but it is certainly wise to check weather conditions in the Midwest that may effect games you are thinking of playing. These two teams have two of the best defensive fronts in the NFL. The Bills grade third best led by DE Kyle Williams and one of the Top-3 best run stoppers in DT Marcell Dareus. At the second level the Bills have two of the best pass rushers in Jerry Hughes and Mario Williams. The Jets have an excellent performing defensive front, but that pressure and style of play will not benefit them in this matchup. EJ Manuel has had more downs than ups in his rookie season, but there is one glaring situation he does bets in. He excels in quick drops and releases that serve to avoid the blitz and any pressure that is generated past 2.5 seconds. Emanuel's percentage drops from 70% to just 55% when blitz and this is the largest differential of any starting QB in the NFL this season. So, the game plan will be to establish the ground attack and then have Emanuel complete shot high percentage pass plays. Then play action becomes a very powerful situation that will give Emanuel more than 3.5 seconds to scan the field in man coverage situations. The Jets defensive front is one of the most difficult to run against, but I do like the matchup between Eric Wood and Harrison. Buffalo is a solid 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games facing inconsistent defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in games played in the second half of the season since 1992; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?50-22 ATS mark for 69% winners since 1983. Play on dogs or pick (BUFFALO) after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in two straight games and is now facing an opponent after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. This system is 3-0 ATS over the past three seasons. Here is a second system that has gone 72-34 ATS for 68% winners since 1983. Play against favorites (NY JETS) off an upset win as a home underdog and with a winning record on the season. This system is 10-2 ATS over the past three seasons. Take Buffalo.
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11-17-13 | Washington Redskins +4.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 14 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in a NFC East battle set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Redskins will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and have a shot at winning the game. I like playing this as a 10* unit getting the points and then adding a 2* amount using the juicy money line. Washington is a solid 16-2 ATS (+13.8 Units) when facing strong passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?30-8 ATS for 79% winners since 2002. Play on road underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points and with the game being played in the second half of the season. DeAngelo Hall nearly got into a fight with Eagles WR Jackson in Week1 after horse collaring the wideout. Hall has graded quite well since Week 2 and has shadowed No.1 WR in each game for at last the first half of play. The Redskins then change of coverage assignments in the third quarter. I do think Hall will shadow Jackson all game and will minimize his big play ability throughout. Hall has covered Johnson and Demaryius Thomas and has three INT, with two returned for scores in those matchups. The Eagles run defense ahs been a significant bright spot this season. However, the mobility and elusiveness of RG III is going to present coverage problems for the secondary. RG III will be able use roll outs to extend plays beyond 3.0 seconds where the Eagles secondary has been exploited. The Eagle defense ranks 31st allowing 417 offensive yards per game, 31st allowing 307 passing yards per game, and 29th getting sacks on just 4.26% of all plays. I strongly believe RG III will have a vastly better game than Foles will have and that will the difference maker.
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11-16-13 | Stanford v. USC +4 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
10* graded play on USC as they host Stanford in PAC-12 action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that USC will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?32-7 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2002. 22 of the 32 wins covered by 7 or more points and under scores my belief that USC wins this game. This system is also 9-1 ATS over the past three seasons and 18-2 ATS over the past five seasons. Play against a road team (STANFORD) off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points and is now facing an opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. This system simply points out the strong probability for a major letdown by the Cardinal after their tremendous win over Oregon last Thursday, which was a 10* winning play for us. Stanford defeated then-no.3 Oregon 26-20 and easily covered as 11 point dogs having never trailed in the game and had built up a 26-0 lead. USC is off an impressive win as well, albeit, not with the media attention of Stanford. USC defeated Cal 62-28 and easily covered as 19 point favorites. In a role reversal of sorts, USC will control the LOS and will dictate the pace of play and have a significant edge in TOP. Take the Trojans.
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11-16-13 | Utah +28 v. Oregon | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
10* graded play on Utah as they take on Oregon in PAC-12 action set to start at The simulator shows a high probability that Utah will lose this game by fewer than 24 points. Utah has played one of the most difficult schedules in the nation and are a solid team despite being just 4-5 on the season. The recipe needed to defeat Oregon has been lade out on the kitchen table. I had Stanford as one of 10* winners and also added a Money Line play on that upset win. The reason I liked Stanford so much is that they had a big OL and DL that could wear down the Oregon lines and maintain a significant edge in TOP. Oregon had just 62 rushing yards on 24 carries against Stanford. Prior to this season-low, the season low for rushing was 216 yards against Tennessee in Week 3. Stanford's lone loss was to Utah, which does provide some ample evidence that they can compete with any team in the nation. Oregon QB, Marcus Mariota, is upgraded to probable for this game, but he ahs had this knee injury since the UCLA game. His mobility has been compromised as three of his 6 rushes were sacks against Stanford. The past two games, the Oregon defensive front has been exploited with UCLA gaining 219 yards and Stanford 274 yards. Utah has a stable of RB led by Bubba Poole. His name is not a reflection of what you might think of him as he is a solid 6-0, 195 pounds with tremendous athleticism. Travis Wilson is the pounding back with 5 TD on the season. He is the player with the size (6-6), 240) that will be featured in this game and will simply wear down the Oregon defensive front. I certainly do not think that Utah will be able to compete for four quarters equally with the Ducks, but 26 points is just far too many to give Utah in this matchup.
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11-16-13 | Washington State +13 v. Arizona | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 22 m | Show |
10* graded play on Washington State as they take on Arizona in PAC 12 action set to start at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that WSU will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. WSU is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons; Arizona is just 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992; 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992. WSU is off a terrible 55-21 loss hosting ASU. However, HC Leach is a perfect 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival in all games he has coached since 1992. Arizona is off a 31-26 home loss to UCLA and were installed as 2 point favorites. HJC Rodriguez I just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) off an upset loss as a home favorite in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?29-8 mark for 78% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ARIZONA) off a home loss and with 17 or more total starters returning. Take Washington State.
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11-16-13 | Maryland v. Virginia Tech -15.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
This is the first of many 10* releases in All-Sports. be sure to check back often to make certain you get them all to maximize your daily profit in All Sports. 10* graded play on the Virginia Tech Hokies as they take on the Maryland Terrapins in ACC action set to start at 12:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Tech will win this game by at least 17 points. I had V-Tech in their dominant road win last week against Miami (Fla) and now they face a Terrapin team that is just a mess on both sides of the ball. Maryland is just one game away from bowl eligibility, but a three game losing streak has brought attention to some of the glaring weaknesses on this team. In last week's embarrassing home loss to Syracuse, they had more turnovers than points scored. More injuries have ravaged the receiving corps, leaving them with just three players who have caught a pass in their college careers. Quarterback C.J. Brown hasn
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11-15-13 | Washington +3 v. UCLA | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Washington Huskies as they take on UCLA in PAC-12 action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will win this game. I normally would split this 10* amount into an 8* amount using the line and a 2* amount on the money line, but the money line does not offer sufficient value/reward in playing it. So, my recommendation would be to just play Washington as a 108 play using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?30-8 ATS mark for 79% winners since 1992. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals and in a game involving two good teams posting win percentages between 60% to 80%. This system produces only a few plays per season, but it is certainly a valuable one noting that it is a perfect 3-0 ATS over the past three seasons. SIM shows that Washington will score 28 or more points. In past games, Washington is a solid 5-2 ATS this season and 15-5 ATS over the past three seasons when scoring 28 or more points. UCLA, though is 0-1 ATS this season and 5-11 ATS over the past three seasons when they allow 28 or more points. Take Washington
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11-14-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Tennessee Titans +3 | Top | 30-27 | Push | 0 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Tennessee Titans as they take on the Indianapolis Colts in NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Tennessee will win this game. Both teams are coming off very poor losses with Tennessee losing at home to the Jaguars and the Colts posting their worst loss since 2001 losing 38-8 to the Rams. Tennessee also lost their starting QB Locker for the season and will have to rely on Ryan Fitzpatrick to run the offense for the remainder of the season. I'll give you the summary first and that is Tennessee has the better defense and that will be the dominant reason they win this game. I do believe that the defense will be at maximum preparedness and focus, especially after losing to JAX last week and knowing their season is all but on the line tonight against the Colts. The Rams defense exposed the weaknesses of the Colts offense and that was no fluke in my opinion. You can be assured that the Titans watched that film as often as possible and will adopt portions of the schemes used by the Rams. The Colts rank ninth in the NFL allowing 21.4 PPG, BUT has been attained in large part by massive mistakes and breaks by opponents in the red zone scoring areas. They rank 24th allowing 368 yards-per-game while the Titans defense ranks 9th allowing 326 YPG. The Titans will be highly successful in putting the Colts offense into numerous third-and-long situations and this the true strength of the Titans defense. They rank fifth allowing 33% of third downs to be converted for first downs. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?72-34 ATS mark for 68% winners since 1983. Play against road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and is a good team winning between 60% to 75% of their games and now playing a team with a losing record. Take Tennessee.
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11-14-13 | Marshall v. Tulsa +13.5 | Top | 45-34 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
10* graded play on Tulsa as they take on Marshall in CFB action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Tulsa will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-10 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2002. Play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MARSHALL) that is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game and after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. The flash rankings may indicate that Tulsa will struggle to run the ball, but when you take in consideration several other facts, including the very weak SOS that Marshall has played, you can readily see that this will be a dominant theme in the game. I strongly believe that Tulsa will do very well running the ball and this in turn will set up play action in man coverage situations on the perimeter. Marshall may be bowl eligible, but their six wins have been against Miami (Ohio), Gardner-Webb, UT-San Antonio,, Florida Atlantic, Southern Mississippi, and UAB. Not a very strong resume to say the least. Tulsa has played against Colorado State, Bowling Green, Oklahoma, and East Carolina. So, you can see by these respective lists out misleading the flash stats are for this game. Take Tulsa.
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11-13-13 | Ball State +7.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 27-48 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
10* graded play on Ball State as they take on Northern Illinois in a battle of the MAC Giants set to start at 7:00 PM ET. Both teams have had great seasons, but both are in the same division in the MAC Conference. The simulator shows a high probability that Ball State will lose this game by five or fewer points. I like making a 10* play using the line and adding a 2* amount using the money line. Ball State is a solid 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?29-5 ATS mark for 85% winners since 2007. Play on a road team (BALL ST) after 3 straight wins by 17 or more points and is facing an opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. NI has one of the best statistical ranked offenses in the FBS, but I strongly believe that it is severely over stated by the SOS they have faced. Ball State has faced a significantly more difficult schedule and I do believe they have the defense to get the job done tonight. Based on the SIM, 28 points will be a huge factor in this game tonight. The SIM shows a very high probability that Ball State will score 28 or more points and will hold NI and Heisman-vote-getter Lynch to less than 250 net passing yards. In past games, NI is 0-2 ATS this season and 2-11 ATS the past three seasons when they allowed 28 points. Ball State is a solid 7-1 ATS this season and 20-5 ATS the past three seasons when scoring 28 or more points and are 6-1 ATS when holding an opponent to fewer than 250 net passing yards. Take Ball State.
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11-11-13 | Miami Dolphins -120 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 19-22 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the Tampa Bay Bucs in MNF action set to start at 8:40PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting an amazing 39-3 mark for 93% winners using the money line since 2008. Play against any team using the money line (TAMPA BAY) that is a struggling offensive team gaining between 4.5 to 4.9 YPP and is now facing a team with an average defense allowing between 4.9 to 5.4 YPP. Both teams have been making unwanted headlines in recent weeks so settling a portion of them on the field will be an excellent release for both. With Martin's departure, the Miami OL has had to be rebuilt and remolded. Although this will be an ongoing project as the second half of the season unfolds, they are facing the weakest pari fo DE in the NFL. Bryant McKinney has done a solid job in the two games played sinced being acquired. Tyson Clabo has been brought back to the starting lineup replacing Martin at RT. He has struggled, but has shown signs of improvement. They are facing Clayborn, who has had negative gradings in four straight weeks and Te'o Nesheim, who ranks dead last in DE playing a 4-3 scheme. TB has a very strong DT in McCoy, but I feel confident that the Miami OL will be able to contain his movements past the LOS. A matchup I see dominated by Miami is their C Pouncey matched up against Spence. You'll see TB use the 'tilt NT' lineup, but Pouncey has proved to use very strong fundamentals and rarely loses his leverage. TE Charles Clay has really come on in recent weeks and is doing many positive things on the field that do not appear in any box score. He will be matched against SS Barron and will be a very versatile target for QB Tannehill. Barron has been charged with defending against TE in nearly every game and this forces him to come up to the LOS, which then opens up the middle of the field for easy to complete slants. Even though the Bucs have had leads in 6 of the eight losses, I feel confident that Miami is the better team on both sides of the ball. Take Miami.
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11-10-13 | Dallas Cowboys +6.5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 17-49 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the New Orleans Saints in NFC action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will lose this game by four or fewer points and has a very real shot at winning the game. I like playing this game as a 10* using the line and then adding a 2.5* amount using the Money Line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-20 ATS mark for 71% winners since 1983. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ORLEANS) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This will be a showdown between two NFC Division leaders and the Cowboys can take full control of the very weak NFC East with a win. The Saints defense has had a nice turn around this season, but their elite stoppers will have their toughest matchups tonight. One that sticks out is Saints DE Cameron Jordan, who grades a distant second to J.J. Watts, going up against the best tackle in the NFL in Doug Free. I strongly believe Free will not need double team help against Jordan and in turn this will give Romo plenty of time to survey the field. Moreover. Jordan has had just nine QB pressures in his last three games while starting out the season with 28 pressures in five games. Two major play makers for the Saints are banged up with Sproles and Graham listed as probable. The Saints offense really went south after Sproles left last week's game with a concussion. Graham has had a great season grading in the Top-3 of all receivers on the majority of categories I monitor, BUT he will be going up against arguably the best linebacker in the NFL this season in Lee. He ranks third best defending TE this season and his presence patrolling the middle of the field is going to wreak havoc with Brees' reads and throws. The Saints love to operate over the middle, so if he is having to check off and throw to the sidelines, that is a huge positive for the Dallas Cowboys as the game wears on. Take Dallas.
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11-10-13 | Houston Texans v. Arizona Cardinals -3.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Houston Texans in inter-conference action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game by four or more points. SIM projects that Arizona defense will hold Houston to between 250 and 300 net passing yards. In past games, Arizona is 4-0 ATS this season and 10-1 ATS the past three seasons when they have held an opponent to between 250 and 300 net passing yards. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?48-22 ATS mark for 69% winners since 1983. Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) and is a mistake prone team averaging 60+ penalty yards per game and after dominating the time of possession last game with >36 minutes. J.J. Watt has been the lone bright spot on the Texans defense posting a 50 graded overall while the rest of his defensive teammates combine for a horrid -49 grade. He has lined up as left DE 235 snaps and RE 106 and he will have a better matchup on the left side of this game. The guard positions are heavily tested when going up against Watt, but Arizona has a very strong left guard in Daryn Colledge. I strongly believe he will be very effective when faced against Watt and that Arizona can also line up a TE or use a RB to help pass protect. Arizona does not have an elite defender like Watts, but they have played very well as a unit. They have been able to get pressure on the QB and you will certainly that against an inexperienced KennuB under center. Look for them to use a double blitz through the A gap where both inside linebackers Washington and Dansby will both go to the same side of the center and flood the gap. Another matchup I truly like is having Patrick Peterson covering Andre Johnson. After a slow start, Peterson has been one of the best corners in the NFL. he has not allowed a TD in the past five games and has allowed 14 completions in 38 targets. Minimizing Johnson's impact, will go a long way to securing a win for the Cardinals.
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11-10-13 | Cincinnati Bengals +1 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -113 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Cincinnati Bengals they take on the Baltimore Ravens in AFC North action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bengals will win this game. Bengals are coming off a tough loss losing on a safety in OT to the Miami Dolphins. That was, though, a 10* winning release for us on the Dolphins. I want to mention that I will only release my plays when I am confident that every possible detail has been researched and quantified as best as possible. So, many days, these plays will come out, as they are this morning, several house before game time, as opposed to several days. Just keep this in mind when getting all of my 10* releases in all sports so you don't miss out on one single winning play or day. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a? 22-4 ATS mark for 80% winners since 2002. Play on home underdogs or pick (BALTIMORE) that are off a road loss against a division rival in games played in November. of the 22 winners, 14 of them have covered the spread by 7 or more points. The SIM projects that the Ravens ground game struggles will continue and that they will be held to fewer than 100 rushing yards. The Bengals are 10-1 ATS the past three seasons when they have held an opponent between 75 and 100 rushing yards. Since being the Bengals HC, Lewis is a resounding 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game. Torrey Smith has been the lone bright spot on this Ravens offense. He leads the league with an average depth of target at 16.1 yards downfield. The most successful play for them has been when he runs a deep post route where he has caught all 7 passes for 199 yards. Flacco has connected with Smith, but his passing accuracy has been below average and absolutely horrid on the deep ball where only 25% of his passes are catchable. Terrance Newman has struggled in deep coverage, so the Ravens will look to get him isolated against Smith. However, the Bengals, will play a bracket allowing Newman and Adam Jones the luxury to play tight coverage in the first 10 yards of a pattern knowing they have excellent deep help from Iloka and Nelson. I fully expect that the underneath coverage defenders will jump a route and get interceptions on balls thrown in Smith's direction. The Bengals have a myriad of weapons for Dalton to throw to led by A.J. Green. RB Giovani Bernard has been a nightmare for defenses catching balls out of the backfield, where he ranks 2nd best in RB receiving grade. WR Marvin Jones has become the second WR and he has outperformed Green over the past month. Take the Bengals.
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11-09-13 | LSU v. Alabama OVER 54.5 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
10* graded play 'OVER' LSU-Alabama in SEC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that more than 57 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-21 ATS mark for 70% winners since 2002. Play 'Over' with any team against the total (ALABAMA) in a game involving two dominant teams outgaining opponents by 1.2+ YPP after 7+ games have been played and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. I strongly believe this will be a shootout Saturday night I am expecting big plays on both sides of the ball. LSU QB Mettenberger (6-5, 230) will be able to have a big night and will move the ball effectively and score points. He has completed 65% of his 231 pass attempts for 2.492 yards, 19 TD, and 7 INT. They will get the ground game running and this will lead to opportunities in play action on the perimeter. LSU does have two strong targets in Beckham (48, 1009, 8 TD) and Landry (58, 882, 8 TD. FB Copeland has been upgraded to probable for this game and he has been a very important part in the run blocking scheme that opens holes for Hill to dart through this season. Keep an eye on him, as he is a monster at 6-1 and 272 lbs and can take on any of the 'Bama defensive line successfully. Where a big key will be is when his block is made at the second level as this will most certainly lead to huge gains. LSU defense is young and they will be tested in a major way in all facets of the game. I just don't seeing them holding up and 'Bama QB McCarron has a stable of receivers to throw to this season. There are four pass catchers that have 20 or more catches and Jones leads the team with 27. Add to that three more receivers with 10 to 14 catches each. McCarron's ability to spread the field and throw the ball to as many as 10 receivers in this game will be very tough for LSU to defend. Then on top of this is a strong ground attack led by Yeldon (115, 729, 10 TD) and you can see why I believe this game will be a shootout.
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11-09-13 | Virginia Tech +7 v. Miami (Florida) | Top | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Virginia Tech Hokies as they take on the Miami Hurricanes in ACC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that V-Tech will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a solid shot at upsetting the Canes. Given the favorable projections, I like playing this as a 9* play using the line and a 1* playing using the Money Line. Miami is coming off a very humiliating loss to FSU losing 41-14 and failed to cover as 21 point dogs. This was my ACC Game of the Year winner last week. Now, the Canes have to try to refocus all of their positive energies to face a tough Tech squad tonight. I don't see the Canes being able to rid themselves of the reality that they endured last week. They now know and unfortunately believe that they are no longer BCS Title contenders and also know they are light years from the talent and execution of FSU. The Miami defense entered the FSU team confident and ranked very high in several categories nationally. However, they were completely ripped apart and FSU actually did not play their 'A' level game. The Tech run defense is perhaps the most under rated group in the nation. They rank ninth allowing 18.6 PPG, third allowing 264 YPG, second allowing 4.0 yards-per-play, and fifth allowing 2.9 rushing yards per play. Miami is going to have difficulty running the ball and this will be a major problem in being able to use any sort of play action. Further Miami ranks just 67th completing 58% of their pass plays. Tech also knows how to control the ball and gain significant edges in TOP where they rank 18th in the nation. By comparison, Miami ranks 118th in TOP. Hokies are a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games since 1992. Take the Hokies.
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11-09-13 | Mississippi State +20 v. Texas A&M | Top | 41-51 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
10* graded play on Mississippi State as they take on Texas A&M in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that MS will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. If you can get a money line, I would add no more than a 1* unit 'just in case' the upset happens. Every season, I have had double digit dogs as high has 23 points win the game SU. I obviously never know when this will happen, but placing a little extra wager on the money line puts you in position to take advantage of that distinct possibility when it does happen. Texas A&M is built around their offense and Manziel and they do perform at a high level. Their defense has been many victimized by the prolific offense and just spends far too much time on the field and don't have the personnel necessary to get off the field with third-down stops. This is evident in several game situations. The SIM shows that MS will score 28 or more points and will establish the run game and average between 5.0 and 5.5 yards-per-attempt. In past games, MS is 3-0 ATS this season and 6-1 ATS the past three season when gaining between 5.0 and 5.5 RYPA. A&M is just 1-5 ATS this season and 3-13 ATS the past three seasons when they have allowed 28 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?35-7 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2007. Play on road underdogs (MISSISSIPPI ST) that are good offensive teams gaining between 5.6 to 6.2 YPP and is now facing a poor defense allowing 5.6 to 6.2 YPP after 7+ games have been played. This system is 5-0 ATS this season. Take Mississippi State.
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11-09-13 | SMU +8 v. Cincinnati | Top | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
10* graded play on SMU as they take on Cincinnati in American Conference action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SMU will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a reasonable shot at an improbable upset win. Given these projections I would suggest playing a 9* amount using the line and a 1.5* amount using the money line. This does equal 1/2 unit more than the 10* play, but it enhances the ROI on this opportunity considerably. SMU QB Gilbert, a Texas transfer, had a huge game last week against Temple. He threw for 538 passing yards and added 97 rushing yards in their come from behind 59-49 win. The performance set all sorts of school records and I strongly believe he will have another solid game today. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-8 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2008 and is 25-4 ATS over the past three seasons. Play on road underdogs (SMU) with a very strong offense averaging 450 or more total yards/game and after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. SMU has played a vastly stronger schedule than Cincinnati and this 'seasoning' will pay-off in this matchup. SMU HC Jones is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when facing excellent defensive teams allowing <=285 yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992. Cincinnati HC Tuberville is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games in all games he has coached since 1992. Take the SMU Mustangs.
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11-09-13 | Auburn v. Tennessee +8 | Top | 55-23 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 21 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Tennessee Volunteers as they take on the Auburn Tigers in SEC action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UT will lose this game by 6 or fewer points and has a great shot at upsetting the Tigers. Given these favorable projections, I would suggest an alternative wager using a 10* play on the line and a 2* play using the money line. The entire nation knows that Auburn will run the ball in this game. They have the Conference best ground attack and ranks 6th nationally. In last week's 35-17 win over Arkansas, the Tigers passed nine times. Tennessee has the conference-worst run defense, so based on flash' stats Auburn should have their way in this matchup. However, Tennessee can play a complete run defense and force Auburn to throw the ball more than in recent games. I like Tennessee's corners and I believe they will hold up well in man-coverage situations allowing the other 8 defenders to focus on the run. The other matchup that I like quite a bit is when Tennessee runs the ball. They too, have a great advantage to win the battle at the LOS and get their ground game going. Further, Auburn's pass defense is highly suspect and Tennessee has far more athleticism at the skill positions. So, look for Tennessee to use play action on early downs and look to exploit man coverage on the perimeter or over the middle of the field if zone defense is recognized. VOLS HC Jones is a solid 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after being outgained by opponents by 125 or more total yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?59-26 ATS mark for 70% winners since 2002. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) with a poor first half defense allowing 16 or more points per game and after scoring 9 points or less last game. Take Tennessee.
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11-08-13 | Louisville v. Connecticut +28 | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
10* graded play on Connecticut Huskies as they take on the Louisville Cardinal in American Conference action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. This game will be televised on ESPN2. The simulator shows a high probability that UCONN will lose this game by fewer than 24 points. This line is highly inflated by a public sentiment expecting Louisville to run the score up on a weaker foe to gain BCS respect. The sentiment is fed by the two teams overall records as well. However, UCONN may be winless, but they have played a vastly more difficult schedule than Louisville has to date. This is not to say that UCONN would have a winning record had they played the same teams as Louisville, but rather to point out that UCONN has already played tough opponents. This seasoning can only help UCONN tonight in front a national TV audience. Moreover, Louisville will undoubtedly be looking ahead to next week's showdown against Houston (7-1, 4-0) where they can earn a little more respect from the pollsters with a dominating win. So, the fact is that if Louisville gets up to a big lead, the bench players will be put into the game. No point in getting any starter injured in this game. UCONN is a solid 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games off a road loss against a conference rival since 1992; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival since 1992; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off 2 consecutive road losses since 1992. Take UCONN.
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11-07-13 | Oregon v. Stanford +11 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Stanford Cardinal as they host the Oregon Ducks in a HUGE PAC-12 matchup set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Stanford will lose this game by fewer than 9 points and has a shot at upsetting the Dicks. I like adding a 1.5* amount using the Money Line in addition to the 10* play getting the points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-10 ATS for 77% winners since 2002. Play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OREGON) that is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game and after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. of the 34 winning plays, 19 of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. This system has also gone a solid 12-3 ATS for 80% winners over the past three seasons. Stanford has played a much more difficult schedule than Oregon. I am not in the least saying that Oregon is not a great team, but they are over rated by many measures in my opinion. One of which, is that the Ducks have not had to standup to the very strong and pounding grounds attack that Stanford brings to their games. Stanford has the same ingredients and team composition that dominated Oregon last year when the Ducks were 18 1/2 point home favorites. In that game Stanford had the ball for 37:05 minutes, had 21 FD, 211 passing yards and ran the ball 46 times for 200 yards. Oregon does rank better than Stanford in rushing stats, but that is because Oregon runs the spread and uses a wide array of running/option plays. Stanford runs a power game that is designed to gain a TOP advantage and to wear down a defensive front over the course of the game. Moreover, Oregon has not had to play strong defense in a closely contested game yet this season. Due to their large leads they have been able to play very basic underneath/bracket type coverages. Stanford has a very good defense too and I do believe that Mariota will throw at least one INT tonight. Cardinal RB Gaffney (6-1,225) will run over Duck defenders at the second level. He is also elusive and very hard to find behind the VERY athletic and large OL. He will have a big night and this in turn sets up play action for Hogan to complete passes in space to Montgomery and Cajuste, who are both excellent gaining yards after the catch. Take Stanford.
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11-07-13 | Washington Redskins v. Minnesota Vikings +2.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Minnesota Vikings as they host the Washington Redskins in Thursday Night FB action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Vikings will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?59-17 mark using the Money Line for 77% winners and has made 31 units/unit wagered since 2002. Play against road teams using the money line (WASHINGTON) that is a struggling team outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game and after scoring 30 points or more last game. Two teams, who were expecting much better seasons will compete tonight. They also share the dubious distinction of the worst NFL scoring defenses. Minnesota has a great ground attack led by Peterson, but have had to abandon that strength when opposing offenses managed to get two scores ahead. Playing behind has been the theme with the Vikings, but I strongly believe things will be vastly different for them tonight. The best offensive scheme when two teams with horrid defenses face one another is play a power running attack with short underneath passes periodically on first down. This combination forces LB and second level defenders to respect the flats and to be aware of not getting beat on double-move vertical routes. The Redskins
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11-05-13 | Ohio +3.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 3-30 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
10* graded play on Ohio University (OU) as they take on Buffalo in MAC Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. This game will be televised by ESPN2.The simulator shows a high probability that Ohio University will win this game. This is a major showdown in MAC action with Buffalo leading the East Division with a 4-0 record and Ohio U right behind at 3-1. The winner will take a major step toward winning the East Division and a ticket to the MAC Championship. OU QB Tyler Tettleton has provided tremendous team leadership. He has thrown for 300 passing yards, 9 TD, 3 INT in his last three games. He has completed 69 passes of 95 attempts and posted a 190 QB rating over this span. OU ranks 15th in the nation averaging 8.6 yards-per-pass. Now, this does not mean they have the 15th best when SOS and Conference PR are factored in, but it is extremely strong when compared to other MAC teams. I also belevie the ground attack will be highly successful against Buffalo and this then allows Tettleton to use play-action knowing he has man coverage over the majority of the field. RB Blankenship is a 'fireplug' power runner, but has great elusiveness and is very hard to bring down in space. He is 5-9 and 206 pounds and is hard to locate behind the massive OL. He has great quickness through holes. WR Foster, who has 50 catches for 718 yards and 6 TD, will be a primary focus of the Buffalo defense. This then opens up the opportunity for Cochran to play an even graeter role in the offensive scheme. Buffalo can't doubel team both and also defend the run. This is exactly why the balanced offensive attack will be highly successful against Buffalo. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?68-32 ATS for 68% winners since 2007. Play on a road team (OHIO U) after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and is a good team winning 60-80% of their games on the season. Take Ohio University.
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11-04-13 | Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers -10 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Green Bay Packers as they take on the Chicago Bears in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Green Bay will win this game by 13 or more points. I also like a 5* on them in the first-half and to play 'UNDER' for a 5* amount. Given the extra pair of 5* plays, there is no advantage to throw more dough on a parlay. Sticking with the discipline is always the most important factor in joining me each day. SIM shows that Green bay will score more than 28 points.In past games, the Bears are 0-3 ATS this season, 0-8 ATS the past three seasons, and 12-67 ATS since 1992 when they have given up 28 or more points. SIM shows that GB will gain more than 450 offensive yards. In past games, The Bears are 3-15 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 450 or more yards. GB is 2-0 ATS this season, 5-0 ATS the past three seasons, and 20-8 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 450+ yards. They are a remarkable 117-32 ATS when the have scored 28 or more points since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?55-23 ATS mark for 71% winners since 1983. Play on favorites (GREEN BAY) off a win against a division rival when playing on Monday night. 38 of the 55 winners covered the spread by 7 or more points. It is widely know how dominant Rogers has been against the Bears. However, tonight, it will the continued emergence of Eddie Lacy and Packers ground attack that will be noted. Lacy leads the league with 395 rushing yards since returning in Week 5 from his own injury. With 15 forced missed tackles and 208 yards after contact on 97 carries, his performance has been hard-earned. This has occurred despite below average play form the OL with run blocking grades over the past 4 weeks. Sitton is on the only OL earning solid grades, but I strongly believe the entire OL will have their best game tonight. The Bears have been hammered with injuries across the defensive front. It is quite evident in that they have are allowing 139 rushing yard per game and SEVEN TD over the last four weeks. Last year's first round pick, McClellin ranks 45th out of 46 DE in run defense and he has been overmatched and dominated in every game this season. This is also a reason for the 'UNDER' play as I expect more time consuming double digit play scoring drives, then flash scores in this matchup. The ground attack will also set up man coverage for Rogers to go to his favorite pass catcher in Nelson. These high percentage short pass routes will serve to get first downs and move the chains. Take the Packers for a 10* unit play, 5* Under and 5* Packers for the first-half line.
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11-03-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Cleveland Browns +3 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the Baltimore Ravens in AFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will win this game. Baltimore may be coming off the BYE, but their problems cannot be fixed with added rest. They had a horrible time establishing the run and have put themselves in difficult second and third down situations. The entire OL has graded poorly in nearly every game this season. They fail to get open lanes and RB Rice has not shown significant elusiveness ands runs mostly down hill. The Browns offense has struggled due to QB injuries and Jason Campbell will get his shot to run the offense today. However, the dominant reason I see the Browns winning is their excellent defense, especially against the run. The unit ranks among the best in the NFL, led by Hughes, Taylor, and Rubin. A near-equally as strong matchup is with Browns WR Gordon. Since returning from his suspension in Week 3, Gordon has been playing like a Top 10 wide receiver. He is eighth in the league in yards-per-route-run at 2.27, and ranks higher than Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Torrey Smith, DeSean Jackson and Vincent Jackson. All eight of his career touchdowns have come from over 20+ yards, so if he
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11-03-13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +17 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Tampa Bay Bucs as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in NFC action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TB will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Based on the 'flash' stats and generic rankings, this is a mismatch. However, first note that Bucs are a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games when facing elite teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season in games played in the second half of the season since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?22-5 ATS mark for 82% winners since 1983. Play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points (TAMPA BAY) after 7 or more consecutive losses and is now facing an opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins. TB is winless and has lost their lead RB Doug Martin for the season. Seattle ahs lost just once this season. Point is that the line is heavily inflated reflecting those two facts. I had a 10* winner last Monday night when the Rams were supposed to get throttled by the Seahawks. The Ram had a chance on the final play from the Seahawk 1-yard line to win the game. Seattle escaped. The Rams did a great job establishing the run with a rookie RB. I believe the same thing will happen here in this matchup and that Mike James will have a very solid game. He has had only a few touches, but he has demonstrated great quickness and elusiveness and will be a solid weapon out of the backfield when Seattle brings pressure. Another matchup I like for the Bucs is the recent emergence of TE Timothy Wright. This has steadily become a go-to guy fro QB Glennon. The combo has connected on 19 of 25 targets, 195 yards, and a TD. Seattle is banged up on offense. Harvin will not play in this game and they have already lost Sydney Rice for the season. This makes Baldwin and Tate the featured WR and Bucs will certainly use Revis on Tate. This forces Wilson to then target Baldwin, who the Bucs secondary can bracket with disguised coverages knowing Revis will always be in man coverage against Tate. Take the Bucs.
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11-03-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Buffalo Bills OVER 40 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
10* graded play 'OVER' Kansas City/Buffalo in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that 40 or more points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?51-20 'over' mark for 72% winners since 2002. Play 'over' with road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (KANSAS CITY) off 1 or more straight 'overs', with a strong scoring defense allowing 17 or less points/game. 31 of the 51 winners covered the spread by 7 or more points and the system is a perfect 3-0 'over' so far this season. KC has the first ranked scoring defense in the NFL. Yet, that fact is already more than reflected in the current line. The unit has been particular strong on third down situations ranking best allowing 25% conversions. Still, the Bills have a strong ground presence where they rank second executing 33 run plays per game. KC defense ranks 28th allowing 4.7 yards-per-rush. This is an area where I see Buffalo can move the chains using the ground game to set up play action where man coverage will exist on the perimeters. And unlike facing the Saints a week ago, they won
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11-02-13 | New Mexico +14 v. San Diego State | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
10* graded play on New Mexico as they take on San Diego State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that New Mexico will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. In this case and based on the projections, I like playing this game as a 10* unit using the line and then adding a 2* amount using a very juicy money line. SDST is just 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams averaging >=5.9 yards/play since 1992. Based on my matchup analyses, New Mexico is the better team on both sides of the ball. They certainly have a much better offense that ranks 34th in the nation averaging 33 PPG, 23rd posting a 0.481 yards-per-point quotient2nd gaining 322 rushing yards per game. They do throw the ball as well, but rely squarely on the ground attack. They rank 81st averaging 6.7 YPP, and third with a paltry 0.94 interception percentage. So, this clearly reflects that when defenses steadily move up safeties to the LOS to stop the run, NM then exploits the spaces left in the middle of the field with high percentage pass plays. SDST ranks 81st allowing 32 PPG and rank and have not stopped a team from scoring in the red zone this entire season. The rankings would indicate that NM has the weaker of the two defenses. However, after factoring in how quickly the NM offense can score, then shows that NM defensive unit is a solid bunch at the MWC level. In this game, I strongly believe that MN will enjoy a significant edge in TOP and this will keep the defensive unit fully fresh to contain any SDST scoring threat. Take New Mexico.
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11-02-13 | Miami (Florida) v. Florida State -20.5 | Top | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
10* graded play on Florida State as they host Miami (Fla) in ACC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by at least 24 points. I'll use some analogies here in hopes of how dangerous it is to take Miami and believe that this is just too many points. Well, taking Miami is like standing in front of an unstoppable freight train or perhaps better trying to catch a falling butcher knife. In somewhat of a rare situation, the public is modestly dominating the betting flows betting on the Hurricanes. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-11 ATS mark for 77% winners since 1992. Play on any team (FLORIDA ST) in a game involving two dominant teams that have outgained opponents by 1.2+ YPP and after 7+ games have been played. and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games. This system has also gone 7-1 ATS over the past three seasons and underscores the danger in fading teams that are playing against an elite team that has produced strong results for several weeks. I had identified FSU as a preseason pick for the National Title and really became confident in Week 3 as may of you already know. I had them as my ACC Game of the Year against Clemson two weeks ago. In sum, this team is getting better and has yet to play their best game. I have consistently identifed the FSU defense as the dominant reason they can win the ACC and get into the Title game. What is quite amazing, is that this unit gets better each week and the fact the offense has taken flight only makes it very difficult for any opponent to compete. FSU defense ransk 4th allowing 14.2 PPG, 7th allowing 297 YPG, 4th allowing 0.201 points-per-play, 5th allowing 4.2 YPP, and 2nd allowing just 27% third-down conversions. Miami offense is decent, but they are not strong enough to consistently move the chains. Moreover, they rank 75th converting only 38% of third conversions. This number will be significantly lower in this game. I could go on, but the play is FSU.
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11-02-13 | Georgia v. Florida +3 | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
10* graded play on Florida as they take on Georgia in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Florida will win this game. These two teams have identical records at 4-3 on the season and 3-2 in SEC. It is quite amazing that Georgia, who I still believe is a Top-10 team, could fall to 4-4 on the season. However, the winner will be just one game behind Missouri, who is very likely to lose at least one more game down the stretch. That's life in the SEC though and sometimes the injury bug is included. It has been Florida's turn this year to go through the injury gauntlet, but I also believe they are deep enough to plug-and-play and continue to play at a high level. This game is being played in Jacksonville on a neutral field making it even easier for both team's fans to attend. Florida's offense has been struggling since the loss of Driskel, but it has been the tenacity of the Gator defense that is the dominant reason Florida can win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?20-6 mark for 77% winners using the money line since 2007. Plat against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (GEORGIA) and is a solid rushing team gaining between 190 and 230 RY/G) and is now facing a good rushing defense allowing between 100 and 140 RY/G, after 7+ games have been played in the regular season. Florida defense ranks fifth in the nation allowing 16.3 PPG, 4th allowing 273 YPG, 4th allowing 27% third-down conversions, and fourth allowing 5.5 yards-per-pass. Take Florida.
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11-01-13 | USC +4.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
10* graded play on Southern Cal as they take on Oregon State in PAC-12 action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that USC will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Many times I will split the wager, or simply add a token amount to the money line to benefit from the projected upset. In this case, there is really no advantage to play the money line. I would not recommend adding more than 1.5* amount using the money line on top of the 10* amount using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?31-7 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2007 and has gone 19-2 ATS for 90% winners over the past three seasons. Play on road underdogs (USC) that are solid offensive teams gaining between 5.6 to 6.2 YPP and is now facing a poor defense allowing 5.6 to 6.2 YPP, after 7+ games of the regular season have been played. USC has had a very tough schedule this season. One of the toughest in the nation. OSU has not had that level of comp. All of the previous games that USC has played against tougher comp, makes the team stronger across the board and it will show tonight in numerous matchups. OSU may be 6-2 on the season, but they lost in Week 1 to Eastern Washington and last week against Stanford. The toughest part of their schedule is coming up starting with the Trojans, the @ ASU, Washington, then @ Oregon. USC defense has been their best football right now and the SIM shows a projection that OSU will not gain more than 100 rushing yards. In past games, where USC has allowed 75 to 100 rushing yards, they are 1-0 ATS this season, 6-1 ATS the past three seasons. Take USC.
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10-31-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Miami Dolphins +3 | Top | 20-22 | Win | 105 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a tremendous shot at getting a home win. I also like the 'UNDER' in this game for a 5* play and as an extra only play, consider placing a parlay using the Money Line and the 'UNDER'. I know some of you will consider teasing this opportunity, but believe me when I tell you to simply stay away from those losing proposition bets. In 19 seasons of sports handicapping, I have yet to find any reason to throw money on teasers. Fact is that simply playing a consistent and disciplined 10* wager on my NFL plays has made a ton of dough for you benefitting from the 21-6 ATS record. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?71-34 ATS mark for 68% winners since 1983. Play against road teams (CINCINNATI) after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and is a solid team winning between 60% to 75% of their games and now playing a team with a losing record. Bengals QB Dalton has become the first Bengal to throw for 5 TD over a 3-game span and five of them came last week against the Jets. However, the Miami defense is vastly better and will bring a much more difficult assignment for Dalton to overcome. The Dolphins will be able to stop any Bengal ground attack and then can be fully focused on showing Dalton a wide array of defensive pre-snap looks. I don't believe they necessarily have to bring pressure on the majority of snaps, but can certainly show it during pre-snap. Miami will be successful in using a very creative defensive scheme to keep Dalton guessing. Take the Dolphins.
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10-30-13 | Cincinnati v. Memphis +2.5 | Top | 34-21 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Memphis Tigers as they host the Cincinnati Bearcats in American Athletic Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET, Wednesday October 30. The simulator shows a high probability that Memphis will win this game and taking the 2 1/2 points is the way to go. I often times use the money line with dogs where the upset probability is significant. However, this skinny line does not afford a strong risk/reward profile to add a small play using the money line in addition to the 10* line play. The key to this game is simply looking at the SOS and not the overall records. It is here where you realize why Memphis is just a 2 1/2 point dog. They have played a vastly more difficult schedule than Cincinnati. It is one of the widest margins I have seen this season. Take my word for it and on your own take a look at the lineup each team has faced to date. Cincy has been favored in every game this season and has gone 3-4 ATS against this weak competition. Memphis has been dogs in all., but one game and have gone 3-3 ATS against much stronger opponents. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?25-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites (CINCINNATI) that are solid offensive teams scoring between 28 and 34 PPG and is now facing against a struggling offensive team scoring between 16 and 21 PPG, after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games. Yes, it is true that Cincy scored more than 37 points. They scored 38 against a Temple team that is 0-4 in conference and 1-7 overall and 38 against a UCONN team that is 0-3 in conference and 0-7 overall. Take Memphis.
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10-28-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. St Louis Rams +13.5 | Top | 14-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
10* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in NFC action set to start on MNF at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that St. Louis will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?36-12 ATS mark for 75% winners since 1983. Play against favorites of 10.5 or more points (SEATTLE) outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in two straight games. Befoere I address the Rams offensive scheme, let's first take a look at how the Rams defense matches up against the Seattle offense. The Seattle OL has not done a good job protecting Wilson as he has spent 25% of the snaps trying to create. Receivers are not getting separation from defenders in the first three to four seconds and the OL and double team help from backs and TE, have not given Wilson that extra 1/2 second to make plays. instead he has been on the run to extend plays and make things happen for them. The Seattle tackles are ranked 54th and 68th in Pass Blocking Efficiency, the guards 40th and 41st. Max Unger is th emost consistent member of the OL and ranks 10th among centers. Pass protection help isn
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10-27-13 | Atlanta Falcons v. Arizona Cardinals -3 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 115 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Atlanta Falcons in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Cardinals will win thi sgame by at least 5 poits. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?26-6 mark for 81% winners since 1983. Play against road underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) and are good offensive team scoring between 23 and 27 PPG and is playing an average defensive team scoring between 18 and 23 PPG and after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS over the past three seasons. 18 of the 26 wins have covered the spread by 7 or more points. This underscores my belief that this game will not be close. The SIM shows a proecjtion that the Falcons will not gain more than 100 rushing yards. In past games, the Cardinals are 2-0 ATS this season, 7-2 ATS the past three seasons, and 49-18 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed less than 100 rushing yards. Cards HC Arians is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in all games he has coached since 1992. The Cardinals will be able to get plays today from their wideouts based on the matchups. Last year
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10-27-13 | NY Giants +5.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 15-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 36 m | Show |
10* graded play on the NY Giants as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC East action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. It is an amazing fact that should Dallas stumble in Detroit and the Giants with the City of Brotherly Love, the Giants would find themselves just 2 games behind the division leader with 8 games remaining. The lack of a running game has put increased pressure on the right-arm of Eli Manning. I do believe that the Giants will be able to establish a ground attack today and take immeasurable pressure of Eli to execute third and long situations. One of the key matchups to watch is Victor Cruz when lined up as the slot receiver. He will be defended by Boykin. In the first game between these two clubs, Boykin did a great job against Cruz. In fact, when QB have thrown to the slot receiver with Boykin in coverage they have a very weak 49 QB rating. Cruz will get lined up all over the field today to create matchups that avoid Boykin. Should Boykin follow suit to the perimeter to shadow Cruz all game, then their ill be excellent matchups in the interior of the Eagles secondary. By his presence on the field, Cruz can take Boykins impact out of the game, even if he has minimal targets from Manning. Note, the Eagles secondary has been torched and ranks 31st in the NFL. Both CB, Williams, and Fletcher rank poorly in yards allowed per coverage snap. Another key to a Giants win is slowing down RB Sean McCoy. In the first matchup, the Giant tackles dominated Eagle Center Kelce, who has emerged as one of the best young centers in the NFL. However, the Giants bring major matchup problems to him and the Eagles OL. In the first game, Kelce recorded a horrid -8.5 grading, which is by far his worst game this season. McCoy averaged 2.2 YPC in that first game and I fully expect more fo the same today. The simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-8 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2002. Play on road teams (NY GIANTS) after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games and is a struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season. Eagles defense will be exploited. They rank 23rd alloing 5.7 yards per play and 26th allowing 28 PPG. The Ginats flash stats are not strong. However, they rank 11th best allowing 5.1 yards-per-play. This reflects that they have had to deal with the offensive woes and trying to defend far too many short field situations. This game will be vastly different. Take the Giants.
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10-26-13 | UCLA +24 v. Oregon | Top | 14-42 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
10* graded play on the UCLA Bruins as they take on the Oregon Ducks in a PAC-12 showdown set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will lose this game by fewer than 20 points. Based on the body of research I have completed, this is just far too many points to give an explosive UCLA team. Oregon ranks very high in all offensive categories and they are quite deep coming off the bench. Sophomore Byron Marshall has taken the place of injured junior Thomas since Week 4 and has produced the second most rushing yards in the FBS. Although this is a great accomplishment, the levels of competition it was attained against is not impressive in the least. Thomas is expected to return and even though they are adding depth to the offense, I expect it to produce more of a chemistry problem with the OL having to execute for two different style runners. In fact, this game finds Oregon the least favored at 23 points of all lined games this season. Given the significant chalk for this game, I do think the look-ahead game against Stanford next week could be a distraction for the Ducks. They know they are 'supposed' to win over UCLA easily and that the most important game of the season rides next week in Palo Alto. UCLA is a very stout, resilient, and talented football team. The true weakness of the UCLA team is on the OL in pass protection. This weakness is more than offset by the juicy spread we are receiving though. OL play is built around game experience and I do believe that QB Hundley, who will be playing on Sundays, can create quick release throws to their playmakers in space. It is here where I strongly believe UCLA can compete with Oregon. These quick throws, are essentially running plays and they serve to minimize intensive blitz schemes, as Evans and Fuller (51, 619 yards) have major matchup advantages in man coverage situations. Don't forget too, that the UCLA offense is averaging 40 PPG ranking 11th best in the FBS and has been accomplished against a stronger SOS. This will be the BEST defense Oregon has faced yet with UCLA ranking 12th in the FBS allowing 19.2 PPG and 8th allowing 0.243 points-per-play. Take the points!
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10-26-13 | South Carolina +3 v. Missouri | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
10* graded play on South Carolina as they take on Missouri in SEC Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that South Carolina (SC) will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?45-18 mark for 71% winners making 32 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MISSOURI) that is an excellent rushing team gaining >=230 RYPG and is now facing a team with an average rushing defense allowing140 to 190 RYPG, and after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game. This system has averaged a +115 DOG play. Gamecocks are a solid 8-1 against the money line (+8.1 Units) when facing solid passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game in games played over the last 3 seasons. Missouri is off a most impressive home win defeating the Gators 36-17 as three point dogs. However, most teams that are off a headline-making win are very prone to letdowns the next game. In fact, the Tigers are off three straight impressive wins over Vandy, Georgia, and Florida. The bad news for Tiger fans is that they are a money burning 20-32 against the money line (-43.2 Units) after a win by 17 or more points since 1992. Missouri has played a difficult schedule just being the SEC. Yet, SC has played one of the toughest slates of any team in the nation. This provides a slight edge to the Gamecocks, who bring one of the fastest defenses in the SEC to this matchup. In my opinion, it will be a dominant SC defense that will drive them to a win today. Take SC.
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10-26-13 | Ball State v. Akron +10 | Top | 42-24 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
10* graded play on Akron as they host Ball State in MAC Conference action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Akron will lose this game by fewer than 8 points. Based on the favorable projections I like playing an alternative wager using a 8.5* amount on the line and a 1.5* amount using the money line to take advantage of the possible SU win. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?69-33 ATS mark for 68% winners since 2002. Play on home underdogs (AKRON) that ahs been a struggling rushing team averaging 125 or less rushing yards/game and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. Ball State is 7-1 on the season with a perfect 4-0 mark in conference play. They are tied for first with NO. 16 Northern Illinois, who they play at their house in two weeks. Their offensive stats are impressive, but they have been attained against a significantly weak schedule of opponents. Akron has just 2 wins, but has played a vastly more difficult schedule. In Week 3 Akron played Michigan very tough and nearly upset them on their own field losing 28-24 and easily covered the 35 point spread. Granted, we have found out that Michigan was not a Top-25 type team this season, but the ability of any team to go to Michigan and play that well is impressive. What I expect is that Akron's defense will rise to the challenge of containing and stopping the Ball State offense. As noted, Akron's team stats are middle of the road, but they are against much stronger comp than Ball State ahs faced. I also believe the team speed that Akron has at the skill positions is going to create matchup issues for Ball State to defend. Take Akron.
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10-24-13 | Marshall v. Middle Tenn State +8.5 | Top | 49-51 | Win | 100 | 33 h 24 m | Show |
10* graded play on Middle Tennessee State as they host Marshall in C-USA action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. This game will be aired on Fox Sports 1. The simulator shows a high probability that MDTS will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot a earning a home upset win. More important is that with a win, they even their season record at 4-4 and then face a much easier schedule down the stretch that includes winless Southern Mississippi and 1-5 UTEP and 1-5 Florida International. They have also played a vastly more difficult schedule than Marshall and this 'seasoning' nearly always pays off for teams in the second half of the season. The statistical rankings would show that Marshall has the better offense and a significantly better defense, but when you discount the SOS that Marshall has played, it is not all that impressive. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?58-26 ATS mark for 69% winners since 2002. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIDDLE TENN ST) with a poor first half defense allowing 16 or more points per game and after scoring 9 points or less last game. MDTS has no significant injuries and RB Jordan Parker is a back with the style and power that has been difficult on the Marshall defense. In most games, Marshall has built a lead and has not had to be concerned about a solid ground attack. I strongly believe the RB duo of Parker and Whatley will be a dominant factor in MDTS covering this generous number.
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10-22-13 | Louisiana-Lafayette v. Arkansas State +2.5 | Top | 23-7 | Loss | -103 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
10* graded play on Arkansas State as they host LA-Lafayette in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. This is a very important game for both teams in the Sun Belt Conference and to become bowl eligible. The simulator shows a high probability that Arkansas State (AS) will win this game. The SIM projects that AS will rush for 200 to 250 yards and will score 28 or more points. In past games played over the past three seasons, AS is a perfect 8-0 ATS when the rush the ball for 200 to 250 yards and are 17-4 ATS when scoring 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?25-3 mark for 89% winners using the money line since 1992. Play against a road team using the money line (LA LAFAYETTE) in a game involving two excellent offensive teams scoring >=440 YPG and after being outgained by opponents by 125 or more total yards last game. This system has averaged a DOG PLAY of +115. Take Arkansas State.
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10-21-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. NY Giants UNDER 48 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
10* graded play 'UNDER' NY Giants/Minnesota Vikings in MNF action set to start at 8:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 47 points will be scored in this game. I believe that this line may go to 47 1/2 later today; perhaps even 48; as the public continues to bet 'OVER' in this game based on the recent history of these two fledgling teams. However, these struggling teams both need to play well and get a much needed win. Minnesota starts a new QB in Josh Freeman and NY starts Eli Manning ,w ho is coming off the worst 6-game stretch of his career. Both teams have made far too many fundamental mistakes and in order to minimize them for this game, both clubs must employ a game strategy that is vastly more conservative than what we have seen in past games. OC Gilbride must get away from his run-and-shoot scheme that he has been mired in since his days with the Houston Oilers. They simply are not utilizing the strong talent at WR in the most optimal manner. Changing schemes in the middle of the season is a very difficult one, but since the playoffs are out of the question, they have the luxury of doing it now. So, I do believe you will see different formations tonight and fundamental plays that will allow Eli to get the ball out quickly to playmakers in space. However, such an elementary approach will be easy to defend even by the Vikings exploited secondary. Minnesota will use variations of the cover-2 and cover-3 and allow Eli to complete passes in underneath zones. This will force the Giants offense to convert on numerous third down situations. The clock runs during all of this and it will be goal of both teams not to fall behind and to shorten the game to the fourth quarter with a chance to win. Adrian Peterson will be the focal point for the Vikings and Freeman is going to snap and hand the ball off to have more than 30 times in this game. I would be shocked to see him throw the ball more than 20 times in this game. Honestly, if he does, it enhances the fact that I would be dead wrong playing the 'UNDER'. Peterson's 483 rushing yards rank fourth in the NFL, and he leads all running backs with 366 yards after contact. With a league-high 92.8 Elusive Rating, he
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10-20-13 | St Louis Rams v. Carolina Panthers -7 | Top | 15-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they take on the St. Louis Rams in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a? 33-8 ATS since 2002 for 81% winners. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) that are poor rushing team averaging between 70 and 95 RY/game and is now facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing between 70 and 95 RY/game. Here is a second system that has gone 120-70 ATS for 64% winners since 1983. Play against road underdogs or pick (ST LOUIS) off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. SIM projects that Carolina will gain between 7.5 and 8.0 net passing yards/attempt, that t Rams will have less than 75 rushing yards, that Carolina will gain more than 125 rushing yards, and will outgain the Rams by ay least 150 total offensive yards. In past games, Carolina is 4-1 ATS the past three seasons and 14.5 ATS since 1992 when they have gained between 7.5 and 8.0 ne passing yards/attempt. Panthers are 13-3 ATS over the past three seasons, and 52-15 ATS since 1992 when gaining more than 125 rushing yards, and 3-1 ATS the past three seasons and 19-5 ATS since 1992 when they have outgained the opponent by 150 or more offensive yards. Rams are just 5-10 ATS over the past three seasons and 25-55 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 150+ rushing yards; 1-10 ATS the past three seasons and 19-71 ATS since 1992 when they have gained less than 75 rushing yards; 1-5 ATS the L3 seasons and 7-17 ATS since 1992 when they have been outgained by 150+ total yards. There are several matchup favoring the Panthers, but the biggest one is in the passing attack against a very banged up Rams secondary. Newton's go-to man has been Steve Smith and defenses have been able to reduce his impact. Newton's QB rating is just 70 when throwing to Smith placing him 65th of 93 qualifying QB. The two other receivers I strongly believe will have big days and will in turn open up man coverage for Smith are Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn. Newton's QB rating is a robust 114 when targeting this duo and grade higher than Randall Cobb or Brandon Marshall. Featuring these two receivers will open up the entire field for the Carolina offense. Take Carolina.
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10-20-13 | Dallas Cowboys +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in a battle for first place in the NFC East set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game. As a suggestion you can add a 2* play using the money line to the 10* play getting the points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?32-9 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2008. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) and is a struggling rushing team averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game. Here is a second system that has gone 46-18 ATS for 72% winners since 2002. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. Much attention has been on the severely injured Dallas Cowboys. However, the Eagles defense is a highly suspect group and are going to be on their heels most of the game. Dez Bryant has emerged as one of the game's bets and most prolific playmakers. On passes thrown to Bryant, Tony Romo has a QB rating of 129.4, which is the fourth-highest in the NFL. On the 53 passes thrown to Bryant he has 34 receptions, six touchdowns, and none of the balls have been intercepted. He has also become a more reliable pass catcher. In 2012, he dropped 10.7% of the catchable passes thrown his way. So far this season, Bryant has dropped just two catchable passes, bringing his percentage down to 5.6%. McCoy is arguably the most important offensive player in the Eagles offense. he leads the NFL is rushing yards and the Eagles offense is first in the NFL overall. Ware is out for the Cowboys and the Eagles will certainly look to get the ball in McCoy's hands often. However, I see the Cowboys doing a great job defending McCoy and forcing Foles into using his arm to move the chains.With Ware out, players like inside linebacker Sean Lee, outside linebacker Bruce Carter, and defensive tackle Jason Hatcher will be able to offset the loss of Ware today. Lee ranks fourth among inside linebackers at RSP, making 21 stops in 129 run snaps and has the physicality to tackle McCoy in space. Carter and Hatcher both rank in the Top 15 in RSP at their respective positions and will also be very active. Romo is doing a great job with progressions and setting up favorable matchups. he is well protected by an OL with two players grading in the Top-15 in the NFL. Eagle blitz means Bryant and others will be in man-coverage. Take Dallas
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10-19-13 | Florida State -3 v. Clemson | Top | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 33 h 52 m | Show |
10* graded play on Florida State as they take on the Clemson Tigers in a huge ACC showdown set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?26-7 ATS for 79% winners since 2007. Play on a road team (FLORIDA ST) that is a solid team outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game and after gaining 450 or more total yards in 5 consecutive games. 18 of the 26 winners or 69% covered the spread by 7 or more points. FSU is coming off a most impressive 63-0 win over then-ranked 20th Maryland two weeks ago and have had the full 2 weeks to prepare for Clemson. FSu offense ranks third in the nation scoring 53.5 PPG, fourth averaging 563 yards-per-game, second with an 0.767 points per play ration, and 2nd averaging 8.1 yards-per-play. Although Clemson ranks well with their offesnive stats, they are nowhere close to what FSU has done already and that they are a young team that will only get better. Tigers rank 17th averaging 28.6 PPG, 9th averaging 515 yards-per-game, 25th with a 0.478 points-per-play ratio, and 18th averaging 6.4 yards-per-play. Where the real difference lies though is the fact that the FSU defense is vastly better than the Clemson edition and is arguably the best defense in the nation. Given that both defense are elite in their own right it is imperative for the respective offenses to get some form of ground attack established to keep pressure off the QB. FSU has a tremendous advantage in this category and has a superior OL. FSU ranks ninth in the nation averaging 5.7 yards-per-rush, while Clemson ranks 70th averaging 4.0 yards=per-rush. I am confident that FSU will have far more success on first down then Clemson, and provides a substantially larger probability that FSU will move the chains far more often. FSU has the better OL and DL and even though he is a freshman, they have the better QB in Winston. He is 6-4 and 228 pounds and plays far beyond his years. Of note, is the last time FSU won in Death Valley was 2001 and they started a freshman quarterback. Sometimes, freshman are just not intimated by the situation and I believe that FSU will have a dominating performance.
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