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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-08-16 | Raiders +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
25* graded play on Oakland as they take on Kansas City in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Make certain you get a minimum Money Line of +135. If it is below +35, then simply make this a 25* play using the line only. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-6 ATS mark good for 81% winners since 2005. Play against any team (KANSAS CITY) off 1 or more straight ‘overs’ against opponent off 6 or more consecutive ‘overs.' The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is a solid 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they gain 400 or more total yards over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 6 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons. KC is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games facing defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last two seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Raiders. KC has been out gained for the season, and Alex Smith has had seven straight games throwing less than 300 passing yards. Oakland’s defense leads the NFL with 25 takeaways and a +14 turnover margin that has propelled to a tie with New England for the best record in the conference. The key matchup tonight involves KC’s abilities to convert on 3rd down situations. Oakland’s defense ranks 8th best in the NFL allowing opponents to convert 3rd down situations 37.6% of the time. KC ranks a dismal 28th converting 34.6% of their third down conversions. Oakland’s defense will be a principal reason they win this critical AFC West showdown. |
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12-05-16 | Colts v. Jets | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 25 m | Show |
25* graded play on the NY Jets (378) as they take on the Indianapolis Colts (377) in AFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Jets will win this game. If this line, currently showing the Jets installed as 1.5 point dog, moves to 3 and you can get a money line of at least +130, then a combination wager is validated using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The Jets are a stout 63-25 ATS (+35.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points. Moreover, they are an impressive 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in home games off a home loss dating back to 1992. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Jets. |
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12-04-16 | Bills +3 v. Raiders | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
25* graded play on Buffalo as they take on Oakland in AFC Conference action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-6 ATS mark good for 82.4% winners since 2005. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OAKLAND) in a conference matchup, who are off a no-cover where the team had won installed as a favorite. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is a miserable 5-26 ATS (-23.6 Units) when they allow 150 to 175 rushing yards; 18-78 ATS (-67.8 Units) when they allow 150 or more rushing yards. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Bears. Buffalo is a strong team that has not had things go their way in every game. They are 6-5 and right in the middle of the playoff hunt in the AFC. Oakland has won 5 straight games to move to first place in the West. Yards-per-point is a metric and not a fundamental variable, but it does lead into t the fundamental discussions. Buffalo ranks 3rd in the NFL with 13.3 yards per point offensive ratio. This means that on average for Buffalo to score 1 point on the scoreboard, they need to gain 13.3 yards of offense. This metric ranges from about 12 to 24 in any given season. The lower the metric, the more efficient an offense operates on the field. Oakland ranks 5th in this category at 14.8 and has posted a very impressive 11.8 reading over their last three games. However, the last three weeks has put Oakland into an unsustainable situation, and there is a significant propensity for their offense to revert to or below their mean. So, look for Buffalo to establish the ground game and control the tempo of the game. |
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12-03-16 | Penn State +3 v. Wisconsin | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 34 h 9 m | Show |
25* graded play on Penn State(333) as they take on Wisconsin(334) in BIG 10 action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 98-52 over the last 5 seasons good for 65.3% winners and made a great 40.8 units/unit wagered. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WISCONSIN) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU is a solid 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after playing 3 straight conference games this season; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season; 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall; 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game; 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Wisconsin. Wisconsin is a poor Fundamental Discussion Points In the Battle for the Big 10 Championship and to make an argument that the winner belongs in the playoffs, the red hot Nittany Lions take on the Defensive minded Badgers. The Badgers only losses were to Ohio State and Michigan this season and the defense was outstanding versus everyone this season. The Badgers offense is nothing special but they move the ball enough to keep the defense fresh and eventually wear down their opponents. Penn State does have the playmakers on Offense to move the ball on Wisconsin and the defense should be able to keep Wisconsin in check. Daquan Barkley who comes into this game with over 1200 yards rushing and 14 TD's is also a tough match up in the passing game. Saying that Barkley got banged up in the Michigan State game and his health status should be monitored as this is a big part of the Nittany Lion offense. We like the hot team right now which also brings a more diversified offense to the table. Roar Lions Roar. WE ARE…. Penn State! |
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12-03-16 | Georgia State v. Idaho -6.5 | Top | 12-37 | Win | 100 | 31 h 17 m | Show |
25* graded play on Idaho (322) as they take on Georgia State (321) in Sun Belt Conference action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Idaho will win this game by more than a touchdown. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-5 over the last 5 seasons good for 84.4% winners and made 21.5 units/unit wagered. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (IDAHO) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Idaho is a solid 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 200 or more rushing yards/game over the last 2 seasons; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after playing a conference game this season; 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf. Fundamental Discussion Points The 7-4 Vandals look to close this season strong headed to a bowl game, Georgia State had a big win last time out against in State rival Georgia Southern and most likely are not looking forward to a trip to Idaho to play in this one. Idaho came on strong after the beat downs earlier this year against Washington and Washington State. Georgia State has a pedestrian offense which the Vandals should have no problem shutting down today and the offense should be able to do its job and put up enough points to get the cover today. |
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12-03-16 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma -11 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
50* graded play on Oklahoma(318) as they take on Oklahoma State(317) in Bedlam Rivalry action set to start at 12:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by more than 12 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-8 over the last 10 seasons good for 88.5% winners and made 24.2 units/unit wagered. Play against road underdogs (OKLAHOMA ST) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. OU is a strong 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons; 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points with Stoops as their coach; 11-4 ATS in their last 15 conference games. OK State is a poor 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992 and they are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Fundamental Discussion Points In the game they call Bedlam we look for the Sooners and the Cowboys to put up lot of offense today. Oklahoma rushes for 230 yards a game and passes for over 320. Baker Mayfield completes over 70% of his passes with 35 TD Passes on the season. Joe Mixon and Samantha Perrine are a solid 1-2 running punch averaging over 7 yards per carry with 17 TD's on the year. Mason Rudolph and the Cowboys offense have been equally impressive this season averaging over 40 points per game. We do look for the Sooners to do what they are accustomed to do and control the Big 12 teams especially at home where the OU defense should be able to get more stops in this one. When I say Boomer, you say Sooner today! |
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12-03-16 | Troy -7 v. Georgia Southern | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
25* graded play on Troy(313) as they take on Georgia Southern(314) in Sun Belt Conference action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Troy will win this game by more than 8 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 42-10 over the last 5 seasons good for 80.8% winners and made a great 31 units/unit wagered. Play against a home team (GA SOUTHERN) - after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games. Another proven system supports this play posting a 38-11 over the last 5 seasons good for 77.6% winners and made 25.9 units/unit wagered. Play on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TROY) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. GASO is an awful 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after playing their last game on the road this season; 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season; 0-6 ATS in their last 6 conference games; 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. Troy is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons; 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games; 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Fundamental Discussion Points Troy goes down to Georgia Southern with a win today will be Conference Co-Champions. The Trojans are 9-2 on the season and only allow 21 points per game. They went toe to toe with Clemson earlier this year and we see the defense shutting down the one-dimensional Georgia Southern team. Troy has a balanced offense to go with a solid defense. Georgia Southern came up short in its game with Georgia State and the week of rest only prolongs a season which, came up short of expectations. Look for the more focused Trojans to control this one today. |
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12-03-16 | Temple +125 v. Navy | Top | 34-10 | Win | 125 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
25* graded play on Temple (325) as they take on Navy (326) in NCAA Football action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Temple will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-7 over the last 5 seasons good for 81.1% winners and made 22.3 units/unit wagered. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NAVY) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games. Another proven system supports this play posting a 70-28 over the last 5 seasons good for 71.4% winners and made a huge 39.2 units/unit wagered. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TEMPLE) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Temple is a strong 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 425 or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons; 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games this season; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons; 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread this season; 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992; 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf. Navy is a poor 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game and they are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games with Niumatalolo as their coach.
Fundamental Discussion Points We like the defensive minded Owls to slow down the Navy rushing attack in this one today. We feel the owls defense which has been solid all season but more impressively only allowing 23 total points the last 4 weeks. The Owls have been a money maker this year going 11-1against the spread and have the better defense. Temple has a solid 1-2 running punch with Jahad Thomas and Ryquall Armstead. This tandem has close to 1700 combined rushing yards along with 25 rushing TD's. Temple QB TJ Walker has experience and the Temple offense should move the football keeping the Defense rested in this one which is important to contain the option game as the game moves on. T for Temple U. |
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12-01-16 | Cowboys v. Vikings UNDER 44 | Top | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
25* graded play on the UNDER in the Dallas-Minnesota Thursday NFL game set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the total will be under 41 points in this game. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 69-32 over the last 5 seasons good for 68.3% winners and made a nice 33.8 units/unit wagered. Play Under - Home teams against the total (MINNESOTA) - after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. Another proven system supports this play posting a 98-50 since 1983 good for 66.2% winners and made a great 43 units/unit wagered. Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DALLAS) - after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Dallas is 17-4 Under (+12.6 Units) in road games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att. since 1992; 6-0 Under (+6.0 Units) in road games off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons; 4-0 under in their last 4 games in December; 8-2 under in their last 10 road games. Minnesota is 13-4 Under (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 Under (+6.9 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 14-4 Under (+9.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons; 6-1 under in their last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game; 9-2 Under in their last 11 games following a ATS loss; 20-7 Under in their last 27 vs. NFC. Fundamental Discussion Points The Cowboys are playing their third game in 12 days. Both teams have strong defenses allowing less than 20 PPG to opponents and both love to play the time of possession/run the ball offense type which limits each others ability to score a lot in this game. Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, 2 guards, and Sam Bradford are listed as probable and will be not be as effective while playing hurt. That's a mostly injured offense that has struggled to post 19.8 PPG this season. Take the UNDER. |
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11-28-16 | Packers v. Eagles UNDER 47.5 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
25* graded play on the UNDER in Philadelphia-Green Bay action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the total score will be less than 45 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-8 over the last 10 seasons good for 80.5% winners and made 24.2 units/unit wagered. Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (GREEN BAY) - after going over the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, after the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. 7 of 8 games in this series have gone under the total since 1992. McCarthy is 12-4 UNDER (+7.6 Units) after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games as the coach of the Packers. Fundamental Discussion Points The Eagles play better at home as they are undefeated there. Their defense has only allowed an average of 9.5 points against at home. Wentz and the Eagles will struggle to score with their starting running back injured and virtually only one-two pass catchers on the team. Take the Under. |
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11-27-16 | Panthers v. Raiders OVER 49.5 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 54 h 57 m | Show |
50* graded play on the OVER in Carolina-Oakland action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that these teams will score over 51 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-4 since 1983 good for 85.7% winners. Play Over - Any team against the total (OAKLAND) - after playing on Monday night football against opponent after playing a Thursday game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Carolina is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons; 6-1 over last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record; 11-3 over last 14 vs. a team with a winning record. Oakland is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread this season; 11-3 OVER (+7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons; 4-0 iover last 4 games overall; 36-14-2 over last 52 games following a ATS win; 12-4-2 over last 18 games in Week 12; 18-5-3 over last 26 games in November. Fundamental Discussion Points Carolina's defense took a major hit in last week's victory as linebacker Luke Kuechly entered the league's concussion protocol while cornerback Leonard Johnson (chest) and defensive end Mario Addison (foot) also exited with injuries. Carr has been outstanding in his last three meetings with teams from the NFC South, throwing for 1,131 yards with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 111.6 rating. Oakland gives up 28 points per game at home and Carolina gives up 30 points on the road. Take the OVER. |
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11-27-16 | Titans v. Bears +5 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 7 m | Show |
25* graded play on Chicago as they take on Tennessee in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Chicago will pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 130-40 since 1983 (16-3 L5 seasons) good for 76.5% winners and made a HUGE 59.5 units/unit wagered. Play against road teams vs. the money line (TENNESSEE) - in non-conference games, off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tennessee is a poor 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season since 1992; 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons; 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders in the last 3 seasons; 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game; 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November. Fox is 44-24 ATS (+17.6 Units) vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in all games he has coached since 1992. Chicago is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in home games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992; 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November. Fundamental Discussion Points Chicago plays better at home where they've earned both of the wins this season and allow 17.5 PPG against. Tennessee is a losing team on the road. This play screams contrarian. Chicago LB Danny Trevathan has recorded 11 or more tackles in two straight games. |
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11-26-16 | Michigan State v. Penn State -11 | Top | 12-45 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Michigan State in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will win this game by at least 16 points. Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU is an amazing 112-37 ATS (+71.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points; 27-9 ATS (+17.1 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play. MSU is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 62% or worse over the last two seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Lions. The red-hot Nittany Lions take on Sparty today, and if Michigan loses to Ohio State, a win here will put Penn State in the Big 10 Championship Game. The Nittany Lions have played well with a balanced offense and strong running game led by Saquon Barkley who has 12 TD's and averages over 6 yards per carry. Penn State also has the better Defense and special teams in this one. Michigan State QB O'Conner has struggled this year and had 13 interceptions, the Spartans also have been bad on the road this year losing at both Maryland and Illinois. The Spartans left a lot on the field against Ohio State last week after a big day by running back Scott and most likely are ready for this season to end, and the Nittany Lions will oblige today. Take Penn State as they roll today and keep their playoff hopes alive. |
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11-26-16 | Auburn +17.5 v. Alabama | Top | 12-30 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
25* graded play on Auburn as they take on Alabama in the IRON BOWL in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Auburn will lose this game by fewer than 13 points and actually has a shot to win this game. If you have access to a money line for this game, I would highly recommend adding a 3* play using that line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-7 ATS mark good for 82% winners since 2010. Play against a home team (ALABAMA) after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games against opponent after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Alabama is just 26-46 ATS (-24.6 Units) in home games off 1 or more consecutive ‘unders.' Auburn is a solid 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after gaining 575 or more total yards in their previous game. Fundamental Discussion Points In the battle of the Iron Bowl we are taking the Auburn Tigers with the points at Alabama based first on the SIM Algorithm grading. There is also a volume of fundamental matchups we see as a neutralizing force against one of the ‘Bama teams in their school history. Auburn comes into the game with an 8-3 record and Alabama has yet to lose. The Tide has delivered in all the big games this year, and when the game was relatively close, they exerted their will and pulled away in the fourth quarter. Alabama QB position has been average through the air in these closer games but delivered running the football. The Auburn QB has been efficient all year with 11 TD's and only two picks completing close to 70% of his passes. The Tiger defense has also been stingy this year and has already faced an athletic QB in Deshaun Watson earlier this year. Auburn's defense, however, allowed only 15 touchdowns in 11 games, limited opponents to about 118 rushing yards per game, and allowed an average of 334.5 yards in total offense, which is 18th-best in the country and fifth in the SEC. The Tigers (8-3, 5-2) can also to put pressure on opposing passers (25 sacks, 82 quarterback hurries) and when they can't get to the quarterback, they have a knack for batting the ball down at the line of scrimmage. Defensive linemen Montravius Adams, Marlon Davidson, Dontavius Russell, Maurice Swain and Derrick Brown, have combined for ten pass breakups. Only two teams have scored in the mid 20 point range against the Tigers this year, and we are getting 17 plus points today. Also in this rivalry game, both teams and players know each other well, so there will be a few wrinkles in the offensive schemes. This is where Auburn, with an incredibly accurate QB, will be the offsetting difference. We believe strongly that his accuracy will eventually spread the Auburn defense and open up running lanes between the tackles. QB Sean White was not under center and got valuable rest after reinjuring his shoulder in the Georgia game. Johnson was under center last week against Alabama A&M and OC Rhett Lashlee said either could start and was intentionally very vague answering press questions yesterday. Gamesmanship? Of course, it is, but it does force ‘Bama staff to prepare for both QB in varying down and distance situations. No Auburn players will be in awe of Alabama, and they have nothing to lose playing in Tuscaloosa.. Take Auburn and the points today. Go War Eagle! |
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11-26-16 | Notre Dame v. USC -17 | Top | 27-45 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
25* graded play on USC as they take on Notre Dame in NCAA Gridiron action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will win this game by at least 21 points. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 47-17 ATS mark good for 73.4% winners since 1992. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (USC) after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent after a home game where both teams score 31 or more points. The SU record of this system is an incredible 61-4 and 48% of ALL plays made covered the spread by 7 or more points. So, 45 of the 67 ATS wins covered the spread by more than 7 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. USC is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards over the last 3 seasons; 28-8 ATS (+19.2 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 total yards per play. Fundamental Discussion Points The red hot Trojans take on the Irish in the annual clash. Norte Dame has had some long days in the Colesium throughout its history and we look for another one today. USC QB Sam Darnold has been real good lately completing over 68% of his passes with 24 Touchdowns, and the Norte Dame secondary will struggle again against an athletic bunch of receivers. The Irish start strong and once adjustments are made the coaching staff does not have an answer. Look for Ju Ju Smith and the Trojan receivers to be running freely all day and the Norte Dame offense will struggle to keep pace today. USC will not want to let up in this one and will keep the pedal on the gas. Look for the Trojans to win this easily today. Fight On! |
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11-26-16 | Florida International v. Old Dominion -13.5 | Top | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
50* graded play on Old Dominion as they take on Florida International in action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that ODU will win this game by at least 17 points. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 98-53 ATS mark good for 65% winners since 1992. Play against a road team (FLA INTERNATIONAL) off an upset win over a conference rival as a home underdog and is now facing an opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. FIU is just 21-58 ATS (-42.8 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games when they allow 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt; 9-29 ATS (-22.9 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play; ODU is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards this season; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Old Dominion. The Monarchs have been perfect in the win column and against the spread at home this year, and we look for more of the same today. ODU has a good offensive line and a strong running game with both Running Backs Larry and Cox averaging 6 yards per carry and 20 rushing TD's on the season. We look for the more of the same today as FIU gives up to close to 200 yards per game. The Monarchs control the line of scrimmage and game in this one. |
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11-26-16 | Michigan v. Ohio State -4.5 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 42 m | Show |
25* graded play on Ohio State as they take on Michigan in BIG TEN action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that OSU will win this game by more than 10 points. Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. OSU is a nice and tidy 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 total yards per play; 33-12 ATS (+19.8 Units) versus excellent rushing teams averaging >=230 rushing yards/game; 51-21 ATS (+27.9 Units) vesus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry; 33-13 ATS (+18.7 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6.25 yards/play. Fundamental Discussion Points Big game this week as this is an elimination game for the college playoff contenders. Two real good teams with great coaching in this one today. Losing Wilton Speight a couple of weeks ago will really hurt the Wolverine offense this week and the Horeshoe is not the place to go with backup O' Korn as the Quarterback. There was a reason he was a backup before transferring to Michigan and then a backup coming to Ann Arbor.The Buckeyes have experience at the QB position with JT Barrett and also have a strong running game and match up with Michigan in the trenches. Barrett completes over 63% of his passes including 24 TD's and can also hurt the defense equally in the running game. Should be a classic battle today, but the inexperience at QB will eventually hurt Michigan and Brutus will finally control this one as the game moves on. Take the Buckeyes as they look to claim one of the top four spots in the College playoffs today. |
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11-25-16 | Arkansas -7.5 v. Missouri | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
25* graded play on Arkansas as they take on Missouri in SEC action set to start at 2:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Arkansas will win this game by at least 11 points. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 54-17 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 2010. Play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MISSOURI) and is a struggling team winning between 25% to 40% of their games and is now playing a team with a winning record, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arkansas is a stout 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Razorbacks. We look for the physical and balanced Arkansas offense to put up some points today as the Tiger Defense has not recovered from the Florida and LSU back to back games earlier this year and have allowed for teams to control the ball and run at will as of late. The Tiger offense has been strong but can't keep up plugging the leaks by the Defense. Arkansas is looking to finish strong heading to a bowl game and we feel the Tigers want to get their disappointing season completed. Arkansas QB Allen has played well this year and the boys in the trenches favor the Hogs today. We look for a little Pig Sooey today as we will take Arkansas and lay the 8 points. |
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11-24-16 | Redskins v. Cowboys -6.5 | Top | 26-31 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
25* graded play on Dallas as they take on Washington in NFC East Thanksgiving Day action set to start at 4:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by more than 8 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 335-236 since 1983 that made a HUGE 75.4 units/unit wagered and is 5-2 this season. Play against road teams (WASHINGTON) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Dallas is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game this season; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins this season; 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Garrett is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games as the coach of Dallas. Redskins are a poor 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. Fundamental Discussion Points The Cowboys are the class of the NFC at this point. They are a balanced and well-performing, consistent team. I don't think the Redskins can say the same. "Road teams have a disadvantage on Thursday night" is a popular topic for articles for a reason. Even better Washington played Sunday night and are playing late afternoon on the road on Thanksgiving Day. Take them Boys and lay the points. |
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11-24-16 | Vikings +111 v. Lions | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
25* graded play on Minnesota (107) as they take on Detroit In Thanksgiving Day action set to start at 12:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will win this game. Given the favorable projections I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 52-20 mark good for 72% winners over the past 10+ seasons. Play on road teams (MINNESOTA) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is a near-perfect 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards over the last 2 seasons; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by |
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11-20-16 | Eagles v. Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 15-26 | Win | 100 | 52 h 17 m | Show |
25* graded play on Seattle as they take on Philly in NFC action set to start at 4:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game by more than 7 points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Seattle is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992; 38-19 ATS (+17.1 Units) after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Carroll is 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) in home games as the coach of Seattle. Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings. Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Fundamental Discussion Points Russell Wilson connected with Doug Baldwin for three touchdown passes versus the Patriots while the former also accounted for three scores (two passing, one rushing) in the last meeting with the Eagles - a 24-14 Seahawks win on Dec. 7, 2014. Jordan Matthews, who is nursing back spasms, has been the lone consistent Eagles wideout with 23 catches for 216 yards in his last three games. The Eagle's wideouts will continue to be poor especially against this Seattle defense. Take Seattle Seahawks. |
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11-20-16 | Jaguars +6.5 v. Lions | Top | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 7 m | Show |
25* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on Detroit in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Jacksonville will lose this game by less than 4 points and have a chance at the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 86-40 since 1983 (6-2 L3 seasons) good for 68.3% winners and made a HUGE 42 units/unit wagered. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. Another proven system supports this play posting a 74-33 since 1983 (10-5 L3 seasons) good for 69.2% winners and made a nice 37.7 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after a loss by 6 or less points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Detroit is a poor 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) versus poor rushing teams - averaging under 90 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992; 13-35 ATS (-25.5 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992; 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 11. Jags are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992; 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week; 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November. Fundamental Discussion Points Look for defensive back Jalen Ramsey, who has become a clear favorite in the race for defensive rookie of the year while shutting down a litany of star receivers throughout his first season, to shadow Detroit's Marvin Jones. Neither team has shown any ability to run the ball on the season with the Jags ranking 26th in the league, one spot ahead of Lions. The teams also rank at the bottom of the NFL in forcing turnovers. The Jags are rested and looking to win. Take Jacksonville Jaguars. |
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11-20-16 | Ravens +7.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 1 m | Show |
25* graded play on Baltimore as they take on Dallas in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Baltimore will lose this game by less than 5 and have a shot of the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-12 over the last 10 seasons good for 74.5% winners and made 21.8 units/unit wagered. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Garrett is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) as a home favorite; 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse; 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in home games in the second half of the season as the coach of Dallas. Harbaugh is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games and he is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season as the coach of Baltimore. Ravens are 4-0 straight up against the Cowboys since 1992. Fundamental Discussion Points Baltimore's top-ranked run defense will take aim at rookie Ezekiel Elliott and Dallas' offensive line after holding the Steelers (36 yards on 18 carries) and Browns (33 on 13) to 2.2 yards per carry. Quarterback Joe Flacco is taking more chances down the field under new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg and averaged 7.56 yards per attempt in the last two games while throwing four touchdown passes. Baltimore has won its last five games against teams starting rookie quarterbacks. Take Baltimore Ravens. |
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11-20-16 | Titans +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
25* graded play on Tennessee as they take on Indianapolis in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tennessee will win this game by seven or more points. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-5 ATS mark good for 83% winners since 2005. Play against any team (INDIANAPOLIS) off 1 or more straight ‘overs’ against opponent off 6 or more consecutive ‘overs.' The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tenn is a stout 32-8 ATS (+23.2 Units) when they rush for 150 to 175 yards; 65-20 ATS (+43.0 Units) when they rush for 125 or more yards; Indy is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 150 or more rushing yards over the last 3 seasons; 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by |
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11-19-16 | Tulsa +1 v. Central Florida | Top | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
25* graded play on Tulsa as they take on Central Florida in American Athletic Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tulsa will win this game by at least 4 points. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-10 ATS mark good for 79% winners since2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TULSA) excellent offensive team averaging >=440 YPG and is now facing an average offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG. Here is a Money Line system that has produced a 118-26 mark good for 82% winners and has made 60 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play on road favorites vs. the money line (TULSA) and is a quick starting offensive team scoring 16+ PPG in the first half and after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The key metric is the Tulsa ground attack noting they are 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in road games when they rush for 200 to 250 yards; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards. Fundamental Discussion Points The Golden Hurricanes come into this game after a tough loss to Navy and controlling the option game which most likely cost them any chance of playing for a conference championship. Both squads look similar against their opponents on the year, however Tulsa brings the better offense today averaging over 42 points per game compared to 31 for Central Florida. Tulsa has a big play offense and lots of speed at the skill positions. Top three rushers average over 5 yards per carry to go with a good quarterback completing 58% of his passes with some big play wide outs. Central Florida has competed well, but does struggle to throw the ball which we think they will need to do to keep up with the high-powered Tulsa offense. Look for another big output from the Tulsa offense today and to cover the small number on the road. |
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11-19-16 | Washington State v. Colorado -5.5 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
25* graded play on Colorado as they take on Washington State in PAC-12 action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Colorado will win this game by more than 10 points. Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Washington State is a money burning 48-94 ATS (-55.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 17-38 ATS (-24.8 Units) when they allow 9 or more net passing yards/attempt; Colorado is a stout 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they gain 9 to 9.5 net passing yards/attempt; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Bears. Both of these teams can be considered surprise teams and could very possibly meet again in a couple of weeks to Determine the Pac 12 Champions. After losing their first two games Washington State has one eight in a row and sets up to play a game next week against Washington in the Apple Cup for a right to play in the Championship Game. If Colorado wins today the Buffaloes will also be going to the Pac 12 championship game. Colorado has two losses both on the road at Michigan and USC. The Buffaloes put up 35 points per game and have only allowed18. The Buffaloes have won both low and high scoring games this year. Colorado QB Liufau has been very efficient this year completing over 67% of his passes with 10 TD's with only 3 picks. The Buffaloes will need to contain one of this years best QB's no one mentions in Luke Falk who completes 74% of his passes and has thrown 33 passing TD's this year. Colorado's secondary has been good and the red zone defense has been strong this year. Colorado is at home and needs this game more today and we think that will be the big difference today. |
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11-19-16 | Northwestern -3 v. Minnesota | Top | 12-29 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
25* graded play on Northwestern as they take on Minnesota in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NWU will win this game at least 7 points. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 84-43 ATS mark good for 66% ATS winners since 2010. Play on road favorites (NORTHWESTERN) after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons. Northwestern is a stout 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt. Fundamental Discussion Points Minnesota has been in all close games this year but has lost in the big tests against Penn State, Nebraska, and Iowa. Minnesota QB Leitner has struggled this year and the Gophers rely on a power running game with play action passing to go with a fundamentally sound defense. Northwestern QB has heated up since the Wildcats went to an up-tempo offense. Most Big 10 teams don't see this offense and are not prepared for this type of attack. Northwestern becomes bowl eligible with this one and showed they could hold their own on the road going toe to toe with the Buckeyes in Columbus. We also feel Minnesota has a big game on deck with Wisconsin in Battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe. The Gophers haven't had the Axe since 2003 and may have more focus on the next game than the Wildcats schemes today. Take the Wildcats and lay the small number today. |
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11-19-16 | Miami (Fla) v. NC State +2 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -102 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
25* graded play on NC State as they take on Miami in ACC action set to start at 12:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NC State will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 67-26 ATS mark good for 72% ATS winners since 2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) off 1 or more consecutive ‘unders’, good offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is just 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points; 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by |
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11-17-16 | Saints +3.5 v. Panthers | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Saints as they take on the Carolina Panthers in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Saints will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 71-33 since 1983 (9-3 L5 seasons) good for 68.3% winners and made 34.7 units/unit wagered. Play against favorites (CAROLINA) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. New Orleans is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games; 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC South; 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Carolina. Payton is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) after a loss by 6 or less points as the coach of New Orleans and he is 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game as the coach of the Saints. Carolina is a poor 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC; 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC South; 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Road team is 21-9 ATS in their last 30 meetings. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Saints. The Saints' Brandin Cooks enjoyed a career day in his previous encounter with Carolina, highlighting his career-high 173-yard performance with an 87-yard touchdown. New Orleans RB Mark Ingram has recorded four touchdowns in his last three road contests. The Saints are a +2 in turnover ratio while the Panthers are -7 (fourth-worst in NFL). Take New Orleans Saints. |
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11-14-16 | Bengals v. Giants | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
25* graded play on Cincinnati as they take on the NY Giants in MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cincinnati will win this game. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-7 over the last 10 seasons good for 76.7% winners. Play against home teams (NY GIANTS) - terrible rushing team - averaging 70 or less rushing yards/game, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cincinnati is 16-2 ATS (+13.8 Units) after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons; 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992; Bengals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. Giants are 34-60 ATS (-32.0 Units) in November games since 1992; 31-55 ATS (-29.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992; 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday games; 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record; 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 10. Fundamental Discussion Points The biggest problem for the Giants has been a stagnant running game led by Rashad Jennings that ranks last in the league with a meager average of 68.3 yards per game. Rookie Paul Perkins could see more time this week to help work the clock and protect a defense that yields 277.4 yards passing. Eli threw 3 interceptions last week in a game that the Giants didn't win but that the Eagles lost. Giants are a 1 dimensional team on both sides of the ball and their quarterback is known for throwing interceptions in the regular season. Take Cincinnati Bengals. |
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11-13-16 | Packers v. Titans OVER 49.5 | Top | 25-47 | Win | 100 | 52 h 45 m | Show |
25* graded play on the OVER in Tennessee-Green Bay action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that this game will go OVER 51 points scored. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Green Bay is 41-18 OVER (+21.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992; 23-9 OVER (+13.1 Units) in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game since 1992; 14-1 OVER (+12.9 Units) in road games after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992; 23-9 OVER (+13.1 Units) in road games off a home loss since 1992. Tennessee is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games this season; 6-0 over in Titans last 6 games overall; 9-1-1 over in Titans last 11 games on grass; 6-1-1 over in Titans last 8 home games. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Fundamental Discussion Points The Green Bay Packers are springing holes in their defense as they dropped three of the past four while allowing at least 30 points in each of the losses. Clay Matthews (hamstring) missed practice Thursday and could sit out his third straight game. Marcus Mariota, accounted for four touchdowns and threw for a season-high 313 yards at San Diego, has connected on five scoring passes to Rishard Matthews in the last five games. Rodgers has 10 TD passes and one interception in his last three contests. Take the OVER. |
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11-13-16 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 42 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
50* graded play ‘OVER’ Jacksonville-Houston in AFC action et to start 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 50 points will be scored in this game. I also have a 25* graded play on Jacksonville and this opens up the rare opportunity to combine the ‘over’ and JAX into a reverse parlay. A reverse bet is essentially just two ‘if’ bets, so it makes sense that we start with looking at what an ‘if’ bet is. An ‘if’ bet is a bet on two or more teams - like a parlay is. The difference between a parlay and an ‘if’ bet, though, is that you have to win all of your games in a parlay or you lose your entire bet, while in an ‘if’ bet you can get some money back if you win just once. So let’s define the outcomes for our game today. We have already placed a $500 reverse parlay bet with JAX and the ‘OVER’. So, if JAX wins ATS and the ‘OVER’ loses we lose $600 factoring in 20% vig. Many books are now going to a 10% vig to encourage more parlays of this type. Next scenario is that the ‘OVER’ wins and JAX does not cover ATS. That too loses $600. If both JAX and the ‘OVER” lose then our worst case scenario is realized with a $1200 loss. If both the ‘OVER’ and JAX win, then the payout is 4:1 and $2,000 is realized. Under a normal parlay, the payout is 13:5, so if both plays win, a gain of $1300 is realized and if either one of the parts of the parlay lose, then a loss of $550 or $600 is realized dependent on the vig percentage. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-18 mark good for 71.4% winners since 2010. Play ‘Over’ with any team against the total (JACKSONVILLE) slow starting offensive team scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. Fundamental Discussion Points Houston is not a good team ranking 30th in scoring offense, 30th in yards-per-game, and 32nd in points-per-play. They score just 1.5 TD-per-game ranking dead last at 32nd by a large margin. JAX defense is a solid unit despite playing far too many downs due to the offense struggles and inconsistencies. The defense ranks 6th allowing 5.0 Yards-per-play and 5th in red zone scoring opponent percentage. Houston ranks 32nd in RZ scoring at just 38% of all possessions. Think about that for a minute. That stat means that Houston can’t even execute a FG success in most situations and TD % is pathetic. JAX offense ranks 16th in RZ scoring at 56% of all possessions. JX QB Bortles has done a solid job with the limited talent he is working with and the lack of consistency the skill players have demonstrated. JAX ranks 14th gaining 256 passing yards per game and third in passing attempts, which reflects playing from behind in the majority of their games. Houston run defense is horrid ranking 28th allowing 126 per game. T.J. Yeldon may have a break-out game today and this too would open up play action, which is where Bortles is at his best. So, I am looking for a 31-17 or 35-21 type game. |
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11-12-16 | USC +9.5 v. Washington | Top | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
50* graded play on USC as they take on Washington in PAC-12 action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at upsetting No.4 Washington. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 40* play on the line and a 10* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-9 ATS mark good for 80% winners since 2005. Play on a road team (USC) that is an average defensive team allowing between 330 and 390 YPG and is now facing a good defensive team allowing between 280 to 330 YPG after 7+ games of the regular season, and after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. Over the L3 season this system has gone an incredible 10-1 ATS. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. USC is in good form noting they are 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games. Here is a bonus money line system that is one you truly should archive and keep track of for future qualifying plays. It has gone 23-14 SU for 62% winners and has made 41 units/unit wagered averaging a +240 DOG play since 2010. Play on road underdogs vs. the money line (USC) in a game involving two good rushing teams both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG after 7+ games, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game. Fundamental Discussion Points Arguably the two best QB’s in the Conference and possibly the nation square off in this huge PAC-12 matchup. Jake Browning leads Washington with very impressive numbers that are worthy for the Heissman. He has throw for 2,273 yards with 34 TD, and 3 INT, but has yielded 11 sacks. USC has Darnold under center and he has been excellent in his own right passing for 1,874 yards with 20 TD and 4 INT. The key to this game, though is I fully expect the Trojan OL and DL to outperform Washington’s editions. Moreover, I expect USC DL to squash the run and force Browning into third down pass situations where USC has elite speed in either man coverage or zone schemes. USC OL will be strong enough to establish the run and then Darnold will have play action pass where he will have man coverage on the perimeter with highly skilled WR. |
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11-12-16 | South Florida -3.5 v. Memphis | Top | 49-42 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
25* graded play on South Florida as they take on Memphis in American Athletic Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SFU will win this game by at least 7 points. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-7 ATS mark good for 82% winners since 2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (S FLORIDA) excellent offensive team scoring 35 or more points/game, after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SFU is a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play. Memphis is just 11-32 ATS (-24.2 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 since 1992; 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards; 13-42 ATS (-33.2 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board South Florida. South Florida -3.5 at Memphis The South Florida Bulls hit the road to take on the Memphis Tigers at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium. South Florida enters the game at 7-2 and Memphis enters at 6-3. The big factor in this game is Quinton Flowers, South Florida’s duel threat QB. Flowers has thrown for 1,900 yards and 19 TD’s as well as ran for 921 yards and 10 TD’s. The Bulls average 272 rushing yards per game and the Tigers give up 194 yards on the ground per game. Flowers is the key to the Bulls success offensively and the Tigers will have their hands full trying to just slow him down. The Tigers QB Riley Ferguson is quite the player himself throwing for 21 touchdowns this year. The Bulls secondary must be good in this one and their front 4 will need to get a pass rush on Ferguson. South Florida’s offense will be too much to handle for the Tigers in this one. Take South Florida as a favorite on the road. |
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11-12-16 | Penn State -7 v. Indiana | Top | 45-31 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Indiana in BIG Ten Conference action set to start at PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that will win this game. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-11 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 2010. Play on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU is a stout 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt; 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt; 110-37 ATS (+69.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Fundamental Discussion Points In this week’s Big Ten action between 10th ranked Penn State and Indiana, our SIM predict Penn State will emerge victorious once again and cover the spread. Following last week’s defeat of Iowa, many are confident Penn State will be able to win out the rest of their schedule, in the hopes of getting a top bowl game, and potentially playing in the Big Ten Championship. PSU running back Saquon Barkley is surging right now, and the PSU offense in turn is doing well because of him, as he makes a late season push for Heisman contention. He ran for 100 yards in the past 3 out of 4 games, and ran for over 200 in 2 out of those 3 games. The Penn State defense has been progressing throughout the past few games as well, allowing 314 yards per game against Purdue and then 234 yards per game against Iowa. The key for the defense this weekend is to shut down QB Richard Lagow and RB Devine Redding. Once they close down the running lanes and take advantage of mistakes made by Lagow (who is tied for most interceptions in Big Ten), the PSU defense will dominate. PSU has the edge in all of the aspects of this game, including team chemistry, and look for them to beat Indiana handily this Saturday. |
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11-12-16 | Kentucky v. Tennessee -14 | Top | 36-49 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
25* graded play on Tennessee as they take on Tennessee in SEC action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tennessee will win this game by 17 or more points. Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kentucky is just 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in road games when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards; Tennessee is a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Volunteers. Tennessee -13.5 vs Kentucky Kentucky (5-4) travels to Knoxville, Tennessee to play the Volunteers (6-3). In this one we look for Tennessee’s offense led by QB Joshua Dobbs to score some points against Kentucky’s defense who gives up 30.4 points per game. Dobbs has thrown for 1,800 yards and 18 touchdowns this season. The key to Tennessee’s success defensively is to stop Kentucky’s running game. Kentucky averages 215 yards per game on the ground. If Tennessee can slow down their running game and keep the ball in Joshua Dobbs hands they should have no problem in this one. Take Tennessee as the home favorite. |
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11-10-16 | Utah v. Arizona State +6 | Top | 49-26 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
25* graded play on Arizona State as they take on Utah in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 9:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that ASU will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ASU is a strong 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992; 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Utah is a poor 26-46 ATS (-24.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992. Whittingham is 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah. Graham is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a home underdog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992. Sun Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Sun Devils are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games. Sun Devils are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Utes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. Utes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November. Fundamental Discussion Points ASU's sophomore quarterback Manny Wilkins will be back after he missed two of the last four contests, and missed most of one of the other games due to injuries. Junior tailback Demario Richard has a team-best 532 rushing yards and is expected back after missing the last game because of injury. Never underestimate the starting QB and HB in football coming back from injuries to boost the team to a victory. Sun Devils senior K Zane Gonzalez is 20-of-21 on field goals this season and his 93 career field goals are the most in FBS history. Take Arizona State University Sun Devils. |
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11-10-16 | Browns v. Ravens -7.5 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
25* graded play on Baltimore as they take on the Cleveland Browns in NFL Thursday Night action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game by more than 13 points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cleveland is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. Cleveland has not done well against struggling passing defenses like Baltimore’s edition this season. They are a terrible 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) vs. poor passing defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons; Cleveland is also just 13-32 ATS (-22.2 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing 3.5 or less rushing yards/carry. Fundamental Discussion Points The Browns are yielding 421.7 yards and 30.3 points per game, each ranking 31st in the league. Baltimore's defense came up big in the win over bitter rival Pittsburgh, holding the Steelers to 277 total yards and 36 on the ground to build a 21-0 lead in the third quarter. The Ravens have won 15 of the past 17 meetings. Ravens TE Dennis Pitta had nine catches for 102 yards (both season highs) in Week 2's Cleveland contest. Take Baltimore Ravens. |
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11-07-16 | Bills +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 34 h 22 m | Show |
25* graded play on Buffalo as they take on Seattle in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will win this game. Given this favorable projection, I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-23 mark good for 66% winners and has made 23 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play against home teams using the money line (SEATTLE) after 1 or more consecutive losses, when playing on Monday night. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Buffalo is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. For this matchup, it clearly shows solid reasons to get on board the Buffalo Bills. We use numerous statistical measures of efficiencies to identify opportunity. Buffalo ranks 8th in overall offensive efficiency. Seattle, as we saw in their 13 points scored against anemic Saints defense are not nearly as strong. Seattle ranks 18th in overall offensive efficiency and are trending downward in most offensive categories. Both teams have solid defenses with Buffalo given a slight edge with their front seven over Seattle. Buffalo can definitely stop the Seattle ground attack and force Wilson to try then to move the chains with his arm. Seattle’s receivers have not been able to generate space on their routes and have created forced desperate throws by Wilson. Buffalo is the play. |
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11-06-16 | Broncos v. Raiders OVER 43.5 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 62 h 17 m | Show |
25* graded play ‘OVER’ Denver-Oakland in AFC West action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 49 points will be scored in this game. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 109-55 over the last 10 seasons good for 66.5% winners and made a nice 48.5 units/unit wagered. Play Over - Any team against the total (OAKLAND) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons; 16-6 OVER (+9.4 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Denver is 117-76 OVER (+33.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992. Del Rio is 30-10 OVER (+19.0 Units) after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in all games he has coached since 1992. Over is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games in Week 9. Over is 10-4 in Broncos last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 45-21-2 in Broncos last 68 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 6-0 in Raiders last 6 games in Week 9. Over is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 games overall. Over is 12-3 in Raiders last 15 games following a straight up win. Over is 17-6-3 in Raiders last 26 games in November. Over is 14-6-1 in Raiders last 21 vs. AFC. Over is 34-15-2 in Raiders last 51 games following a ATS win. Fundamental Discussion Points Carr leads the AFC with 17 touchdown passes while Cooper had 12 catches for 173 yards and a touchdown last week to boost his team-leading total to 52 receptions while Crabtree hauled in his NFL high-tying sixth touchdown catch. Defense has been a nightmare for the Raiders, who are ranked 31st in the league, surrendering a total of 410.4 total yards while being equally generous against the run and pass. If Bradley Roby can get another pick-6 that will also add to the total. Combining these two teams' points/game averages, they will total over 51 points. Take the OVER. |
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11-06-16 | Panthers v. Rams +3 | Top | 13-10 | Push | 0 | 58 h 16 m | Show |
25* graded play on the LA Rams as they take on the Carolina Panthers in NFC action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Rams will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 54-24 over the last 10 seasons good for 69.2% winners. Play against road favorites (CAROLINA) - with a good rushing defense - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Rams are 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing less than 3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992. Fisher is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against NFC South division opponents in all games he has coached since 1992 and he is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play as the coach of the Rams. Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC. Panthers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games. Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week. Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Fundamental Discussion Points Carolina's offense can move with ease, although they've been set back by a league-worst 17 turnovers. Their revamped secondary has turned in a couple of dreadful performances ranking 29th in opponents pass yards/game (286.9). As good as the Panthers are on offense, they have their awful record because of two defensive stats: they allow their opponents more yards/play than their offense gains, and they allow more points/game than their offense scores. Yes, They'll stop the run this game, but so has everyone else against the Rams so it's not an advantage. Take LA Rams. |
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11-06-16 | Eagles v. Giants UNDER 43 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -108 | 78 h 49 m | Show |
25* graded play ‘UNDER’ NY Giants-Eagles in a huge NFC East game set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 40 points will be scored this game. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 81-43 over the last 5 seasons good for 65.3% winners and made 33.7 units/unit wagered. Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PHILADELPHIA) - versus division opponents, off a division game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 vs. NFC. Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games overall. Under is 14-6 in Giants last 20 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Fundamental Discussion Points Philly and New York are ranked FOURTH and TENTH respectively in fewest points allowed per game. Just looking at their average per game defense stats this game would total 36.8 points. The Giants rank a lowly 26th in offensive points per game, so if we combine both offenses' points stats they should score about 44.6 in total. These two teams are built on defense, so I don't see why they wouldn't lean more towards a 37 point total than a 45 point total. Philly will stab themselves in the foot ranking 30th in both penalties per play and per game nearing almost 9 penalties a game. Despite those great numbers they have, they get in their own way. Take the UNDER. |
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11-06-16 | Lions v. Vikings -6 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -107 | 55 h 2 m | Show |
25* graded play on Minnesota as they take on Detroit in NFC North action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will win this game by at least 10 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-19 over the last 5 seasons good for 70.3% winners. Play on favorites (MINNESOTA) - off a road loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons; 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons; 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons; 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons. Detroit is 12-35 ATS (-26.5 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Lions are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC North. Vikings are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November. Vikings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC. Fundamental Discussion Points Armonty Bryant received a three-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy, so with the Lions will lose his production recording three sacks in four games. Vikings defense is permitting a league-low 14.9 points. Bradford is better in this situation, recording five touchdowns and zero interceptions in four home games. Stafford was sacked seven times in the last meeting by Minnesota, which swept the season series a year ago. Stafford may have his career high in passer rating, but he hasn't faced this defense yet this year. Take Minnesota Vikings. |
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11-05-16 | Alabama v. LSU +7.5 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -108 | 37 h 58 m | Show |
50* graded play on LSU as they take on Alabama in SEC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that LSU will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great opportunity to win the game and upset no.1 Alabama. Given this compelling projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 40* play on the line and a 10* play using the money line. We never know when these dogs will win the game. What we do know is that if you we play these dogs as combination wagers it serves to add another 11% in total return to overall profitability spanning an entire season. Every season for the past 8 seasons, we have had a dog of greater than 17 points win the game outright. This year we had Kansas at 28 ½ against TCU and TCU needed a last-minute score to come away with a 1-point win. Although LSU is not a 17-point dog, it is one that certainly qualifies for the combination wager. The key part of this combination wager is that we MUST have a money line => +140 for the ROI to be validated. If ever, you cannot get that line, simply play the dog on the line only. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-5 ATS mark good for 83% winners since 1992. Road favorites (ALABAMA) with an excellent rushing defense allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards/carry, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games. Here is a second system that supports LSU and has gone 26-6 ATS for 81% winners since 1992. Play on a home team (LSU) in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games.
Now onto the technical that match the SIM projections for the outcome of this game. · Alabama is just 10-28 ATS (-20.8 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points. · Alabama is just 13-39 ATS (-29.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points. · Alabama is just 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) when they allow 150 to 200 rushing yards. · LSU is a stout 43-22 ATS (+18.8 Units) when they rush for 150 to 200 yards. · LSU is 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt. · LSU is a solid 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Alabama rolls into Baton Rouge as the top team in the nation again and takes on a hot LSU Tiger team. The Tigers are 5-2 with both losses being on the road by a total of 7 points against Wisconsin and Auburn with a late TD being pulled off the board against Auburn. This should be another classic Alabama and LSU slugfest. Alabama Quarterback has struggled some in big games throwing at least one pick in each of the big games this year, but the Defense has bailed the offense out and the Tide eventually wore down the opponent. Both teams come off a bye and should be fresh in this one. Leonard Fournette is heating up lately and the Tiger ground game has been rolling Fournette is averaging 8 yards per carry and this should keep the Tigers defense off the field and have some legs late in this one. If LSU can keep the Bama defense from scoring this one should be a dog fight all afternoon. Geaux Tigers today. Titan). |
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11-05-16 | Nebraska v. Ohio State -17 | Top | 3-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
25* graded play on Ohio State as they take on Nebraska in Big Ten Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that OSU will win this game by at least 21 points. It is rare that you get the public enamored with a DOG, but they are with Nebraska. At first glance, it is natural to think a strong team like Nebraska is getting far too many points and think it is a gift. Only 22% of bets have been on OSU, BUT the line has moved 4.5 points higher. This clearly reflects numerous large bets made on Ohio State that more than offset the public’s irrational exuberance on Nebraska. Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. OSU is a strong 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they rush for 250 to 300 yards over the last three seasons.; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they rush for 6 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons.; 132-44 ATS (+83.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points; 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 1.5 to 2 yards/play Fundamental Discussion Points Ohio State -17 versus Nebraska The Buckeyes come off a tough three-game stretch where they were in tight games each week; Nebraska took its first loss last week in Madison against the physical Badgers. We look for Nebraska to come into this one with a little hangover and the horseshoe is not the place for that. Look for the Buckeyes to get the train rolling again this week. JT Barrett comes into this one complete INC 64% of his passes for 272 yards per game, and we look for another strong effort from the Buckeye defense today. Nebraska has not had a signature win as of late, and we look for Tommy Armstrong and the Cornhusker Offense to struggle in Columbus today. Armstrong has 11 TD passes but seven picks to go with that. Ohio State has averaged over 42 points per game, and we look for more of the same as Brutus flexes his muscles today. |
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11-05-16 | Iowa v. Penn State -6.5 | Top | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Iowa in BIG TEN action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will win this game by at least 11 points. Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Iowa is a money losing 19-61 ATS (-48.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; PSU is a stout 109-37 ATS (+68.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992; 27-9 ATS (+17.1 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992. Fundamental Discussion Points After PSU’s recent rankings, many in the college football community believe they were over ranked, and the Penn State football team has a lot to prove this weekend. Coming off of wins the past four weeks, the PSU squad has a ton of momentum going into this game. Trace McSorley (55.2% completion percent, 12 TD, 3 Int) and Saquon Barkley (888 rush yds, ten rush TD, 213 receiving yds, 1 receiving TD) have been carrying the offense for the team, and will likely be a force again this week against Iowa. Iowa’s offense has been largely inconsistent throughout the year, and might put up a struggle to the PSU defense, but will likely not be able to overpower them. Lastly, the chemistry of the Penn State team gives them an added edge – another white out game under the lights at Beaver Stadium and a team that is clicking on all cylinders with its coach is going to be a force to be reckoned with. Expect PSU to continue their winning streak in this Big Ten action this week versus Iowa. |
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11-05-16 | Oregon v. USC -17 | Top | 20-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
25* graded play on Southern Cal as they take on Oregon in PAC-12 action set to start at 4:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will win this game. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-7 ATS mark good for 81% winners since 2005. Play on home favorites (USC) after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last two games, with five defensive starters returning. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. USC is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last three seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points As defined and graded by the SIM we are back with the Trojans taking on Oregon this week. USC has the ground game going lately, and the Duck stop units haven't been seen lately. Oregon is giving up over 42 points per game and the Trojans bring a solid running game, and the passing game has been good as Darnold has completed67.4 % of his passes and has thrown 18 touchdown passes with only three picks on the year. USC has one of the top OL in the nation ranking 19th in our S&P style metrics this season. Note too that when playing against the better offenses Oregon has given up over 50 points per game, and we see more of that today as the Trojans take out some frustrations on the Ducks while they are down. Fight On tonight. |
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11-05-16 | Navy v. Notre Dame -7 | Top | 28-27 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
25* graded play on Notre Dame as they take on Navy in NCAA action set to start at 11:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Notre Dame will win this game by at least 11 points. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Navy is just 20-43 ATS (-27.3 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 total yards per play; 47-21 ATS (+23.9 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play. ND is a solid 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt. Fundamental Discussion Points This game will be played in Jacksonville and we look for more of what we seen from Navy last week as the Defense gave up 52 points. Notre Dame has too many skilled players and should move the ball with ease today. The strength of the Irish is the run defense which should help today and not put the pressure on the weak secondary. Navy throws for 147 per game but that requires the running game to help the passing game, ND secondary can match up against this class. ND typically wins this one with ease when laying the small number at neutral sites and struggles when laying the big numbers. Look for Deshone Keizer to have a big day with a lot of receivers running free today. The Irish should also be able to control the ground game in this one. |
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11-03-16 | UCLA v. Colorado -13 | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
25* graded play on Colorado as they take on UCLA in Thursday PAC-12 action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Colorado will win this game by at least 17 points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Colorado is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season. UCLA is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 2 seasons. MacIntyre is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after playing 3 straight conference games as the coach of Colorado. Bruins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Bruins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Bruins are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Bruins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Buffaloes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Buffaloes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Buffaloes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win. Buffaloes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Buffaloes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Buffaloes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Buffaloes are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Fundamental Discussion Points UCLA's Fafaul is coming off a wild, up-and-down outing Oct. 22 against Utah in which he threw for 464 yards and five touchdowns while also tossing four interceptions and losing a fumble in a 52-45 home loss. Buffaloes have been particularly tough against opposing passers, notching 11 interceptions while allowing only eight aerial TDs behind a secondary featuring safety Tedric Thompson (Pac-12-most four interceptions) and cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon (Pac-12-most 13 passes defensed). The Buffaloes are getting it done on both sides of the ball, joining Alabama, Ohio State and Louisville as the only teams to rank in the top-20 nationally in total offense and defense at 19th and 12th, respectively. With this all-around strong team against a struggling UCLA, Take Colorado Buffaloes. |
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11-03-16 | Falcons -4 v. Bucs | Top | 43-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Tampa Bay Bucs in Thursday NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game by at least 7 points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tampa Bay is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse since 1992 and they are 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in home games after playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992. Atlanta is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992. Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. Buccaneers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on grass. Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Favorite is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Fundamental Discussion Points Matt Ryan leads the league in both yards (2,636) and touchdowns (19), has thrown for 1,000 yards and five scores in his last three encounters with Tampa Bay and faces a Buccaneers defense that ranks 23rd in the league (274.7 yards per contest). The Bucs won't have nearly the same offensive lineup they had around quarterback Jameis Winston in the first meeting. Doug Martin and Charles Sims, the team's top two running backs, are injured as is No. 2 receiver Vincent Jackson, Jacquizz Rodgers (another running back), and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins. This will be Atlanta Falcons' game. |
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10-31-16 | Vikings v. Bears +5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Chicago Bears as they take on the Minnesota Vikings in MNF action set to start at 8:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a 68% probability that Chicago will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-7 mark good for 86% winners using the money line and has made 37 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play against struggling teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) that are good passing teams (6.7-7.3 PY/Att.) and is now facing an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PY/Att.), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Bears are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Vikings are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Monday games. Bears are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this game it clearly shows strong reasons to get on board the Bears tonight. |
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10-30-16 | Eagles v. Cowboys -5 | Top | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
50* graded play on Dallas as they take on Philadelphia in a mammoth NFC showdown set to start at 4:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 10 or more points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 164-89 ATS mark good for 65% winners since 1983. Play against any team (PHILADELPHIA) off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Eagles are just 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) when they allow 150 to 175 rushing yards; 30-62 ATS (-38.2 Units) when they allow 150 or more rushing yards; Dallas is a stout 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they rush for 125 or more yards over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points As the technical point out, the key to this win is the play of the Dallas OL, who have arguably put themselves into the discussion of best all-time. Although, much of the talk entering this game is on the solid play of two rookie QBs, it has been the Eagles defense that has led them to a 4-2 record. However, I do not see this Eagles defensive unit holding up for 60 minutes against the constant ground game pounding. The SIM projects that Dallas will have at least 160 rushing yards and this also control the clock and the pace of play. Also, Zak Prescott will have play action pass play opportunities where he can have a few extra seconds to scan the field. Beasley may ned up being a coverage nightmare for the Eagles, who will be forced to have their LB focused on the run first. This opens up quick hit slant routes in space. Take Dallas. |
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10-30-16 | Packers +3 v. Falcons | Top | 32-33 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
25* graded play on Green Bay as they take on Atlanta in NFC the action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Green Bay will win this game this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-17 ATS mark good for 72% winners since 1983. Play against home teams (ATLANTA) after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. GB is a stout 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points While the Packers’ offense may not be what it once was, Green Bay’s defense continues to impress, especially in the front-seven. First-round pick Kenny Clark is currently fourth in run-stop percentage among 3-4 DEs, veteran Mike Daniels is seventh in pass-rushing productivity among the same group, and former first-round pick Nick Perry is sixth in pass-rushing productivity among 3-4 OLBs. I do believe the GB secondary will disguise coverages involving Julio Jones periodically creating the illusion that Jones is in an ‘under/over’ bracket coverage. I also believe GB will bring pressure more than in past games limiting the time for Ryan to connect with Jones on deep routes. Take Green Bay. |
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10-30-16 | Patriots v. Bills +6.5 | Top | 41-25 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 52 m | Show |
25* graded play on Buffalo as they take on New England in AFC East action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by less than 5 points and have a chance to pull off the upset AGAIN. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-16 since 1983 (4-0 last 5 seasons) good for 73.8% winners and made 27.4 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. Another proven system supports this play posting a 33-11 over the last 10 seasons good for 77% winners. Play Against favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - revenging a loss against opponent, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC East. Bills are 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on turf. Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Bills are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bills are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC East. Bills are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. Underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings head-to-head. Fundamental Discussion Points The Bills will get Pro Bowl defensive tackle Marcell Dareus back to sure up their rushing defense their poor performance last week. Buffalo will look to play well over their level in their disappointing loss last week. I believe too much is being made on the Patriots revenge factor in this game. Rex Ryan coached teams have always given Brady a hard fight. The spread is too high and is climbing. Take the Buffalo Bills. |
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10-30-16 | Cardinals +3 v. Panthers | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -117 | 73 h 49 m | Show |
25* graded play on Arizona as they take on Carolina in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they rush for 100 to 125 yards over the last 3 seasons; 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing over 350 yards/game since 1992; 53-30 ATS (+20.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing over 5.65 yards/play since 1992; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Arians is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of Arizona. Cardinals are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 8. Cardinals are 21-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Cardinals are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games following a ATS loss. Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. Panthers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC. Fundamental Discussion Points Arizona has the second-best defensive rating in the NFL by holding opponents to 289.6 yards per game. The Cardinals haven't surrendered a touchdown in their last two games. Carolina's offense has cranked out 371.5 yards per game for the fourth-best mark in the league. Panthers left tackle Michael Oher stayed in concussion protocol at the beginning of the week, so he may not play. Carolina hasn't been playing well at all and I don't think a bye week will help them. Take Arizona Cardinals. |
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10-29-16 | Washington -10 v. Utah | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
25* graded play on Washington as they take on Utah in a critical PAC-12 matchup set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Washington will win this game by more than 14 points. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-3 ATS for an amazing 89% winners since 2005. Play against home underdogs (UTAH) after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after 3 straight wins by 21 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Washington is a solid 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Utah is a money losing 21-60 ATS (-45.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) when they allow 35 to 41. Fundamental Discussion Points The Huskies come into this one at 7-0 averaging 43 points per game and only giving up 14. However, the Utes are 7-1 and will be the best team the Huskies have faced this year. Last week UCLA was able to put up a lot of points and exposed the Utah defense. We look for Jake Browning to do more of the same today with plenty of weapons in the skull positions. Browning comes into this game with 26 TD passes and only 2 interceptions. The Huskies also have balance in offense bringing a solid running game averaging 227 yards per game. Washington also can match Utah physically and we don't see Utah keeping pace today and eventually wearing down an the Huskies to control this one and make another statement in the PAC 12. Take the Huskies and lay the points. |
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10-29-16 | Baylor v. Texas +4 | Top | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
50* graded play on Texas as they take on Baylor in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 42* play on the line and a 8* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Note that all of them are using the money line and reflect my strong belief that Texas wins SU. Baylor is just 25-79 against the money line (-71.5 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 7-13 against the money line (-13.1 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt; Texas is 31-3 against the money line (+31.7 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards; 30-4 against the money line (+26.4 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards. Fundamental Discussion Points The Baylor team has not really been tested this year, and this is a game that will show how great of a team that they really are. Also, Texas coach Charlie Strong is on the hot seat so far this season, so this is a perfect game for him to prove he can lead this team to victory. With both teams having a lot to prove, expect this game to be hard-fought and difficult. Texas seems to be doing well offensively this year, and expect a big performance from their running back D’onta Foreman this week. The Baylor defense has given up 200 rushing yards to Rice, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State so far this year, so definitely expect Foreman to have a great game. However, it would not be fair to not mention that Texas’ defense is also having trouble. They have allowed 200 rushing yards per game in 2/3 of the past games they have played, on top of struggling to defend the pass or come up with big turnovers. Despite their defensive struggles, I think Texas will capitalize on offense this week in a shootout with Baylor, and will ultimately emerge victorious. |
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10-29-16 | Georgia +7.5 v. Florida | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
25* graded play on Georgia as they take on Florida in SEC Cocktail action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Georgia will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting 31-36 mark good for 46% winners and has made 57 units/unit wagered averaging a huge +300 DOG play since 1992. Play against neutral field favorites vs. the money line (FLORIDA) dominant team outgaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/play, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Georgia is a solid 18-5 against the money line (+12.4 Units) in road games when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play. Fundamental Discussion Points Going to the Cocktail Party today and using the Bulldogs of Georgia getting a little over a TD against Florida. Gators have controlled this one lately but we look for another slugfest in this one. Gators come into this one at 5-1 and look to be headed to the SEC Championship game. The Gators bring a solid Defense into this game only allowing 12 points per game, but the offense has not been anything special. Georgia comes in with a 4-3 record with a strong running game and the best running back on the field with Nick Chubb. The Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart was brought here to win these type of games. After getting beat by Vandy at home the defensive minded Smart had two weeks to prepare for this one. Look for a lot of emotion from the Bulldogs today and keep this one a dogfight all day. In a dogfight we want UGA. |
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10-29-16 | Kentucky v. Missouri -6 | Top | 35-21 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
25* graded play on Missouri as they take on Kentucky in SEC action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Missouri will win this game by at least 9 points. Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kentucky is a money losing 44-96 ATS (-61.6 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 20-44 ATS (-28.4 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards; 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games when they allow 5.5 to 6 rushing yards per attempt; Missouri is a stout 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when they rush for 5.5 to 6 yards per attempt; 105-33 ATS (+68.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points; 36-10 ATS (+25.0 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards; Fundamental Discussion Points Kentucky comes into this game winning 3-of-4 and have covered all four ATS. Missouri has lost 3 straight and lost those games ATS as well. Kentucky’s rushing defense is not good period. Missouri runs the ball a ton. Tigers have gained 613 rushing yards in their last 2 games against Florida and Middle Tenn. State. Kentucky ranks 91st in the nation allowing 207 rushing yards per game. On the other side of the ball, we see that Kentucky, too, runs the ball and ranks 38th in the nation gaining 202 rushing yards per game. However, the Missouri defense is capable of containing that ground attack and forcing Kentucky to throw the ball to move the chains. Kentucky ranks a terrible 108th averaging 178 passing yards per game. Take the Missouri Tigers. |
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10-29-16 | Penn State -14.5 v. Purdue | Top | 62-24 | Win | 100 | 2 h 37 m | Show |
25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Purdue in Big Ten Conference action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will win this game by at least 20 points. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 59-25 ATS mark good for 70% winners since 2010. Play on road favorites (PENN ST) after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU is a solid 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt; 108-37 ATS (+67.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points; Purdue is just 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt; 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games when they allow 400 to 450 total yards. Fundamental Discussion Points. Penn State is coming off an incredible victory against Ohio State last weekend at home, and last week Purdue lost 14-27 to Nebraska. Penn State clearly has the momentum going into this game. Though Penn State offense has been struggling recently, this week they will get reignited against one of the most defenses in the Big Ten, Purdue. Whether it is offensively, defensively, special teams, or coaching, Penn State should win on all fronts. Penn State’s offense will have a field day this Saturday, as Barkley and McSorley will team up against a defense that is allowing on average 441 yards per game. Also, PSU special teams have been excellent recently, and were the reason they were able to upset Ohio State last week. Lastly, last weeks win was definitely huge for Coach Franklin of PSU. Many thought him to be on the hot seat for a while, but this game was huge for building team confidence around him, and this will show throughout the rest of the season. |
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10-27-16 | California v. USC -16 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
25* graded play on USC as they take on California in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will win this game by 21 points or more. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 60-26 ATS mark good for 70% winners since 1992. Play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (CALIFORNIA) with a poor first half defense allowing 16 or more points per game, after 2 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored. Here is a second system that has produced a 44-17 ATS mark good for 72% winners since 1992. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (USC) after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent after a home game where both teams score 31 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. USC is a stout 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in home games when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards; 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in home games when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt; 118-58 ATS (+54.2 Units) when they score 28 or more points; 28-8 ATS (+19.2 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 total yards per play. Fundamental Discussion Points Based on the predictive algorithms, USC is a Top-20 team and is playing extremely well right now. They are riding a strong three game win streak and easily defeated Arizona last week. They also knocked off a ranked Colorado team the week before. Cal’s defense is poor ranking 120th allowing 41.3 PPG and 121st allowing 5.7 rushing yards per game. The matchup advantage for USC is pounding the ball on the ground where they rank 33rd gaining 4.9 yards per rush. They have rushed for 501 yards on 86 carries in their last two wins. This has not only worn down a defensive line, but also opened up play action pass plays where USC’s elite receivers have been in man coverage. The same again tonight. |
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10-24-16 | Texans +9 v. Broncos | Top | 9-27 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
50* graded play on Houston as they take on Denver in MNF action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Houston will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-5 mark based on the money line good for 82% winners and has made 22.3 units/unit wagered since 2005. Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, when playing on Monday night. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is a solid 34-10 ATS (+23.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points. Denver is a near-imperfect 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons. Texans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on grass. Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Texans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 Monday games. Fundamental Discussion Points The media is making far too much of the return of Osweiler and how GM Elway has had this game circled. Denver's C.J. Anderson has failed to rush for 50 yards in four consecutive games and is starting to lose touches to rookie Devontae Booker. Houston gains 4.1 yards per rush ranking 7 teams higher than Denver, while Denver is known for their defense they rank only 16th in allowing opponents yards per rush of 4.0. Houston also gets called by less penalties as they're ranked 4th in both penalties per game and per play. Denver is ranked 23rd and 25th respectively in those categories. Take Houston Texans to win. |
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10-23-16 | Seahawks +2 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-6 | Win | 100 | 58 h 16 m | Show |
25* graded play on Seattle as they take on Arizona in NFC West action set to start at 8:30 PM ET Sunday. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Seattle is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons and they are 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. Arizona is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) off a home blowout win by 21 points or more since 1992. Arians is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after allowing 9 points or less last game as the coach of Arizona. Carroll is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of Seattle. Seattle is 2-0 against the spread at Arizona over the last 3 seasons. Seattle is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 against the division. Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 7. Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Cardinals are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 7. Cardinals are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. Fundamental Discussion Points Seattle owns the league's No. 1 defense and is third in points (15.6) and rushing yards (74.6) allowed. Quarterback Russell Wilson, who has a passer rating of at least 121.9 in three of the last four meetings with the Cardinals, guided Seattle to a 36-6 rout at Arizona in the regular-season finale in January. We like the Seahawks in this matchup, despite Palmer being back, we think Arizona still has a lot of question marks on the offensive side of the ball, a unit which led the league in scoring last year. Seahawks DE Cliff Avril has four sacks and a forced fumble in the last four games versus Arizona. Take Seattle Seahawks with the points. |
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10-23-16 | Vikings -3 v. Eagles | Top | 10-21 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
25* graded play on Minnesota Vikings as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will win this game by 11 or more points. How to best this game I also have a 25* play on the UNDER of this game where the SIM Algorithm projects that fewer than 35 points will be scored in this game. Given the strength of both plays consider adding a 5* reverse parlay wager that pays 4:1. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-27 mark good for 70% winners since 2005. Play on any team (MINNESOTA) off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG). Here is a second system supporting the ‘UNDER’ play and has gone 60-26 ‘under’ for 70% winners since 2010. Play ‘under’ with home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Vikes are a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons.; Eagles are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons. Vikes are a near-perfect 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points The Eagles come into this game losing two in a row after a hot start. Losing right tackle Lane Johnson really had a big effect on the offensive game plan last week for the Eagle Offense. Keeping tight ends in to block and using Running backs to chip will not help the Eagle offense as they now go against the NFL's best defense. The Vikings come into this game suffocating offenses and are also plus 11 in turnovers on the season. After a good start the Eagles Defense looked a lot like last years’ defense the last two weeks. Sam Bradford returns to Philadelphia playing well for the Vikings completing 70% of his passes for 247 yards per game, but more importantly has not had any interceptions this year while throwing for 6 Touchdowns. Minnesota has been a real money maker the last two years and come into this one covering the first 5 weeks this year and we look for the Vikings to make it 6 straight wins. |
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10-23-16 | Vikings v. Eagles UNDER 39.5 | Top | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show |
25* graded play on Minnesota Vikings as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will win this game by 11 or more points. How to best this game I also have a 25* play on the UNDER of this game where the SIM Algorithm projects that fewer than 35 points will be scored in this game. Given the strength of both plays consider adding a 5* reverse parlay wager that pays 4:1. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-27 mark good for 70% winners since 2005. Play on any team (MINNESOTA) off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG). Here is a second system supporting the ‘UNDER’ play and has gone 60-26 ‘under’ for 70% winners since 2010. Play ‘under’ with home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Vikes are a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons.; Eagles are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons. Vikes are a near-perfect 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points The Eagles come into this game losing two in a row after a hot start. Losing right tackle Lane Johnson really had a big effect on the offensive game plan last week for the Eagle Offense. Keeping tight ends in to block and using Running backs to chip will not help the Eagle offense as they now go against the NFL's best defense. The Vikings come into this game suffocating offenses and are also plus 11 in turnovers on the season. After a good start the Eagles Defense looked a lot like last years’ defense the last two weeks. Sam Bradford returns to Philadelphia playing well for the Vikings completing 70% of his passes for 247 yards per game, but more importantly has not had any interceptions this year while throwing for 6 Touchdowns. Minnesota has been a real money maker the last two years and come into this one covering the first 5 weeks this year and we look for the Vikings to make it 6 straight wins. |
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10-23-16 | Giants v. Rams +3 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 11 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Los Angeles Rams as they take on the NY Giants in NFC action set to start at 9:30 AM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Rams will lose this game by less than 2 points and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The Rams are 38-20 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games when both teams score 20 or more points since 1992. Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf. Giants are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Giants are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Giants are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC. Rams are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Fundamental Discussion Points The Rams' passing attack was incredible against the Lions, and quarterback Case Keenum had a career day. Keenum threw for 321 yards and two touchdowns, and at one point he completed 19 straight passes.The Rams will keep that formula going against a Giants passing defense that is ranked 22nd in the NFL and gives up an average of 266.8 yards per game. New York S Nat Behre (concussion) had to be removed from practice on Wednesday and remains in the league's protocol. OBJ suffered a hip pointer in the win over the Ravens and was able to return to the game, but he has been receiving treatment for the injury this week and sat out practice on Wednesday. Eli is a different quarterback when away from home. Take LA Rams with the points. |
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10-22-16 | Washington State v. Arizona State +7.5 | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
25* graded play on Arizona State as they take on California in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 10:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that ASU will lose this game and may win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-11 ATS good for 75% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA ST) that is a struggling team outgained by their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after gaining 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ASU is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when their defense allows 400 or more net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points For this game we head out to the desert in Tempe, Arizona at Sun Devil Stadium where the Washington State Cougars take on the Arizona State Sun Devils. Arizona St. comes into this game at 5-2 on the season and 4-0 at home where they average 46.5 points per game and average 463 yards of offense in those games. Meanwhile Washington St. sits at 4-2 but have won their last 4 games after starting the season 0-2. Washington St. averages 542 passing Yards per game and the Arizona State defense gives up an average of 385 yards through the air each week. We look for Washington St. to air the ball out on offense and score some points but Arizona State loves to play in front of their home crowd and they too can score some points. Look for this to be a more offensive type game with a decent amount of points being scored but Arizona St. should keep it close at home. Take Arizona State at home with the points. |
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10-22-16 | Utah v. UCLA -6.5 | Top | 52-45 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
50* graded play on UCLA as they take on Utah in PAC-12 action set to start at 4:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game by at least 10 points. The 50* play is the strongest possible play identified by the algorthims. Applying many machine learning and predictive modeling tools (Beyasian probabilities) to 30-years of historical results provide the most optimal forward looking predictive tools available right now. Unlike traditional probability, which uses a frequency to try to estimate probability, Bayesian probability is generally expressed as a percentage. In its most basic form, it is the measure of confidence, or belief, that a person holds in a proposition. Using Bayesian probability allows a researcher to judge the amount of confidence that they have in a particular result. As you readily see, these technologies are useful in many industries including insurance, banking, investment banking, human clinical trial analyses, biochemical based research, and of course sports predictive modeling. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Utah has been a money losing 14-34 ATS (-23.4 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points; UCLA is a solid 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games when they allow 3.5 to 4 rushing yards per attempt; 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) when they allow 4 to 4.5 total yards per play. Betting consensus figures also show a rather rare situation where the public has reached ‘red flag’ levels on the DOG. As we know, the public loves betting the favorites, so when betting levels exceed 70% on a dog it only adds more support to the Algorithm projections. 71% of all best have been on Utah. However, the line has moved from UCLA -6 to UCLA -7 at most of the major books I monitor. This too is a positive, since it reflects the large ‘smart money’ is more than offsetting the public’s irrational exuberance for Utah. Fundamental Discussion Points UCLA has a very strong passing game that has not been held in check in any game this season. Utah has been pounded by the ground game in their last two games and I believe there will be ample running room for the Bruin RB. Although, not necessary, if UCLA does establish the run early in this game, it will put the Utah secondary in man coverage on the perimeter and will be greatly mismatched against faster, quicker, and bigger playmakers. |
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10-22-16 | Texas A&M +18 v. Alabama | Top | 14-33 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
25* graded play on Texas A&M as they take on Alabama in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas A&M will lose this game by fewer than 17 points and has an outside shot a major upset of No. 1 Alabama. If you get access to a money line, then simply add a 3* amount to the 25* play using the line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-6 ATS mark good for 82% winners and has made 21 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play on road underdogs (TEXAS A&M) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams posting win percentages >= 80% on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Alabama is a money burning 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when the total is between 56.5 and 63; 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in home games after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game. Fundamental Discussion Points Texas A&M +18 versus Alabama The Aggies head to Tuscaloosa to take on the Crimson Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Aggies come into this game at 6-0 with quality wins over Auburn, Arkansas, and Tennessee. Texas A&M comes into this game averaging 274 rushing yards per game and 6.8 yards per carry. This powerful rushing game includes Trayveon Williams (5 TD’s) and also a very versatile QB in Trevor Knight who has 9 rushing touchdowns this season. Look for A&M’s power rushing to slow down this game and keep their defense off the field and well rested to match up against that Alabama offense that averages just over 500 yards of offense per game. Playing Alabama at home is never a small task but look for Texas A&M to give it all they got for this big SEC matchup in Tuscaloosa and for them to keep it close and give Alabama a fight at home. Take Texas A&M with the points. |
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10-22-16 | Wisconsin v. Iowa +4 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
25* graded play on Iowa as they take on Wisconsin in Big Ten action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Iowa will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-3 mark good for 90% winners and has made 23 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against a road team vs. the money line (WISCONSIN) off 2 covers where the team lost as an underdog against opponent off a road win. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Iowa is a solid 20-7 against the money line (+16.1 Units) in home games when they score 22 to 28 points; 22-4 against the money line (+18.2 Units) in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. Fundamental Discussion Points The Wisconsin Badgers take a trip to Iowa City, Iowa this weekend to take on the Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium. Iowa sits at 5-2 on the year and 3-1 in conference play just one game behind Nebraska in the Big Ten West Division. We look for this to be a lower scoring affair so look for turnovers and field position to play a big part in this game. Wisconsin has turned the ball over 11 times this year while Iowa has only turned it over 5 times. Wisconsin QB’s have thrown 7 touchdowns this year but have thrown 8 interceptions and in a Conference game like this, turnovers must be at a minimum. Look for Iowa’s offense to move the ball steadily with running back Akrum Wadley who averages 7.4 yards per carry and also in the air with QB C.J. Beathard who has a 60% completion percentage and 11 touchdowns this year. The Hawkeyes have a great shot at winning this game at home against 10th ranked Wisconsin. Take Iowa with the points. |
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10-21-16 | Oregon +150 v. California | Top | 49-52 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
25* graded play on Oregon as they take on California in PAC-12 the action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oregon will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-7 ATS mark good for 81% winners since 1992. Play on road underdogs (OREGON) after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games and is now facing an opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games. Here is a money line system that has produced an amazing 100-30 mark good for 77% winners and has made 82 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on a road team vs. the money line (OREGON) excellent rushing team (>=4.8 YPR) against a team with a terrible rushing defense (>=4.8 YPR), in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oregon is a solid 41-14 ATS (+25.6 Units) when they rush for 300 or more yards; 50-14 ATS (+34.6 Units) when they gain 550 or more total yard; Cal has been a horrid 3-24 ATS (-23.4 Units) when they allow 42 to 48 points; 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) when they allow 550 or more total yards. |
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10-20-16 | BYU +7 v. Boise State | Top | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
25* graded play on BYU as they take on Boise State in NCAAF action set to start at 10:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that BYU will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a solid opportunity to win this game. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting 36-11 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 1992. Play against home favorites (BOISE ST) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BYU is 4-2 against the spread versus Boise State since 1992. Cougars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Cougars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Cougars are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 vs. MWC. Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Broncos are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Fundamental Discussion Points Boise State’s last 3 wins have not been as dominant as one would have thought and the Broncos are only 2-4 ATS on the season. On the other hand, BYU is 4-0 ATS as an underdog. BYU has had close games this year and also Boise has not been a good covering team. BYU's Jamaal Williams is ranked 4th in the nation with 134 yards a game rushing. Senior quarterback Taysom Hill threw three touchdown passes in Friday's 28-21 double-overtime victory over Mississippi State and has accounted for 13 touchdowns (nine passing, four rushing) this season. Senior running back Jamaal Williams (3,468) became the school's all-time rushing list in the Mississippi State contest - surpassing Harvey Unga (3,455 from 2006-09) - and has rushed for 942 yards (second-most nationally) and 10 touchdowns this season. Nacua, a senior, is tied for the national lead with five interceptions and has 13 in his career while sophomore linebacker Francis Bernard (48 tackles) racked up a career-best 16 tackles against the Bulldogs. |
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10-20-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia Tech -6 | Top | 16-37 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
25* graded play on Virginia tech as they take on Miami (Fla) in ACC Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that V-Tech will win this game by 10 or more points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. V-Tech is a solid 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards. Miami has been a money burning 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) off 2 or more consecutive ‘unders’; 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite. Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Hokies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games. Hokies are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 Thursday games. Fundamental Discussion Points Miami's Brad Kaaya-led offense has struggled (32 points in the losses) with the line shouldering much of the blame. Coach Justin Fuente's defense was ranked No. 3 nationally in yards allowed per game before Syracuse totaled 561 yards, ran 100 offensive plays and scored on its final two possessions. Evans (ACC-best 170.7 QB rating, 17 touchdown passes, 319 yards rushing) is the third straight quarterback Miami faces who is as dangerous as a runner as he is passer, with the previous two having success both ways against the Hurricanes. VT's Travon McMillian posted 16 carries, 99 yards, averaging 6.2 YPC in the last Miami game and Isaiah Ford is doing well posting 32 catches and five TDs. Take Virginia Tech. |
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10-17-16 | Jets +7.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-28 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
25* graded play on the NY Jets as they take on the Arizona Cardinals in NFL MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. How to Play this Game SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Jets will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great opportunity to win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-7 ATS mark good for 80% winners since 2005. Play on road teams in October (NY JETS) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Jets are a solid 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards; 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games when they rush for 100 to 125 yards; 62-25 ATS (+34.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points; 36-13 ATS (+21.7 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 or less yards/play. Arizona is a poor 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons; 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games against AFC East division opponents since 1992.Cardinals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Monday games. Fundamental Discussion Points Palmer is off to a slow start with six touchdowns and five interceptions through his four starts. Jets WR Brandon Marshall has gone over 100 yards in seven of his last 11 games. Jets won the previous matchup back in 2012. The Jets can make things difficult for the Cardinals with their 2nd best rush defense in the NFL and Revis most likely coming back to help on the pass defense. Take NY Jets with the points. |
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10-16-16 | Chiefs -1 v. Raiders | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 51 h 55 m | Show |
25* graded play on Kansas City as they take on Oakland in AFC West action set to start at 4:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Kansas City will win this game. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-6 over the last 10 seasons good for 81.8% winners! Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OAKLAND) - in conference games, off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite. Another proven system supports this play posting a 28-9 over the last 10 seasons good for 75.7% winners. Play On road teams (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 14 points or less last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. KC is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game since 1992 and they are 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games after a loss by 10 or more points since 1992. Oakland is a poor 23-58 ATS (-40.8 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing under 7.5 yards per return since 1992; 20-47 ATS (-31.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game since 1992; 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992; 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) in home games after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Chiefs are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in October. Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. Chiefs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Oakland. Road team is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 meetings. Fundamental Discussion Points We are looking to back Andy Reid coming off a bye week and take the Chiefs in this one. Big Red has been a money maker in this role. The Raiders have a big time offense and Derek Carr is having a big year, but the Defense has been giving up 27 points per game. Recent history shows the Raiders have burned the money in a favorite role at home. Oakland looks to be without their best running back again this week. The Chiefs look to have versatile back Jamal Charles back in full force and this will also be a big lift to the Kansas City Offense. Alex Smith typically stays away from turnovers and runs the system well for the Chiefs and we look for the offense to have an easier time against the Oakland Defense. KC won at Oakland by 14 last year and then by 7 at home. We look for more of the same today. Take KC in this one. |
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10-16-16 | Bengals v. Patriots UNDER 47.5 | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -109 | 49 h 57 m | Show |
50* graded play on the UNDER on Cincinnati versus New England in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that this game will go UNDER 44 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 103-54 over the last 5 seasons good for 65.6% winners and made a big 43.6 units/unit wagered. Play Under - Home teams against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cincinnati is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 20-6 UNDER (+13.4 Units) in road games versus good rushing defenses - allowing under 90 rushing yards/game since 1992; 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging more than 375 yards/game since 1992; 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons; 26-9 UNDER (+16.1 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 since 1992; 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) in road games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite since 1992. Under is 7-1 in Bengals last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 5-1 in Bengals last 6 road games. Under is 4-1 in Bengals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games overall. Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 vs. AFC. Fundamental Discussion Points With both teams averaging around 20 points per game and the defenses giving up 22 and 14 points per game, we feel the under is the play in this one. The Bengals running game has struggled this year and the Patriots are not much better when they line up and come at you. Both teams have good pass defenses and the defenses are well coached. Bengals road games have been covering at a 66% rate lately and we feel this total is a little inflated with Tom Brady returning and coming off a big game against the Cleveland Browns last week. We feel it will be a little tougher to move the ball this week and the kickers will get a lot of action. Take the Under. |
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10-16-16 | Browns +7.5 v. Titans | Top | 26-28 | Win | 100 | 48 h 13 m | Show |
25* graded play on Cleveland as they take on Tennessee in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cleveland will lose this game by less than 4 points and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tennessee is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons; 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons; 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons; 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons; 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Browns are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Fundamental Discussion Points The Browns have beaten the Titans in each of the last two seasons. Tennessee entered this season having gone 1-7 SU at home in both 2015 and 2014, beating only the Jags each year. Cleveland RB Isaiah Crowell ranks third in the AFC with 416 rushing yards and has six rushing TDs in his past nine games. He is also outpacing the Titan's Murray at 5.6 ypc to 5.0 ypc respectively. Tennessee is ranked 24th in the NFL in points per game (18.4) while Cleveland is 29th at 17.4. Knowing that, the spread seems way to high. Take the Browns with points. |
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10-15-16 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin UNDER 44.5 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 2 m | Show |
25* graded play on the UNDER on Ohio State versus Wisconsin in BIG 10 action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that this game will go UNDER 40 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-15 over the last 5 seasons good for 72.7% winners. Play Under - Any team against the total (WISCONSIN) - after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games against opponent after a win by 21 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Wisconsin is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons and they are 33-17 UNDER (+14.3 Units) vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game since 1992. Ohio State is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) off a home win over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons. 8 of 9 games in this series played at Wisconsin have gone UNDER the total since 1992. Fundamental Discussion Points Wisconsin has had two weeks since their last game (10/1) and will be playing on 10/15, they will definitely be well rested and ready to take on OSU. I believe this game will fall under the total of 44 points for 3 reasons. First off, OSU’s defense is incredibly strong, rated at 92.6% efficiency, matched up against an average Wisconsin offense with an efficiency of 49.4%. Furthermore, another incredible defense in Wisconsin, at 92.1%, against an above average offense in Ohio State with an efficiency rating of 72.2%, will limit points in this game. Lastly, the OSU offense has not been tested this season, with the exception of Oklahoma; with past competitors including Bowling Green, Tulsa, Rutgers, and Indiana, the OSU offense has not really played a defense on the same caliber as Wisconsin. Turnovers will be key in this game, as Wisconsin will likely need to capitalize on all opportunities they will get. Barrett (OSU) , a running oriented QB, is not the type of QB to defeat Wisconsin and it all could come down to a turnover. |
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10-15-16 | Ole Miss -7 v. Arkansas | Top | 30-34 | Loss | -120 | 33 h 18 m | Show |
25* graded play on Mississippi as they take on Arkansas in SEC West action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Ole Miss will win this game by more than 9 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 47-16 over the last 10 seasons good for 74.6% winners. Play against home underdogs (ARKANSAS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Ole Miss is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. since 1992; 37-17 ATS (+18.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Freeze is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 63 as the coach of Ole Miss and he is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in the first half of the season as their coach. Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games. Rebels are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Razorbacks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. Fundamental Discussion Points With Ole Miss coming off of a bye week, and Arkansas coming off of a tough loss to Alabama 49-30, I predict that Ole Miss will win this week in SEC West action. Arkansas struggled last week, even though it appeared to be a close game; Arkansas’ QB Allen had 3 interceptions last week and they were only able to gain 73 yards rushing. Look for Chad Kelly (66% completion, 1,596 yards, 13 TDs, 4 interceptions) to hit his top two targets this week: Evan Engram (30 receptions for 479 yards, 4 TDs) and Damore’ea Stringfellow (20 passes for 305 yards, 2 TDs). Also, Ole Miss has a much stronger offensive and defensive efficiency rating, at 83.8 and 68.5, respectively. In comparison, Arkansas has a 60.6 and 51.1 efficiency rating, for offense and defense, respectively. Chad Kelly will have another stellar performance this week, and Ole Miss defense will step up to shut down Arkansas. Take Ole Miss. |
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10-15-16 | Virginia Tech v. Syracuse +20 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 31 h 38 m | Show |
25* graded play on Syracuse as they take on Virginia Tech in ACC action set to start at 3:45 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Syracuse will lose this game by less than 15 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 156-90 since 1992 good for 63.4% winners and made a BIG 57 units/unit wagered. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (SYRACUSE) - in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Syracuse at home is 5-1 against the spread versus VT since 1992. Hokies are 6-13-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Hokies are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Hokies are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Orange are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Orange are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Orange are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings head-to-head. Fundamental Discussion Points The Hokies have played well after the collapse in Bristol earlier this year and got a little help from the weather last week. Va-Tech has a big game with Miami on deck next week and get Syracuse at the dome, where they can use their speed and come up with big plays. The Orangemen have moved the ball against everyone this year and we look for more of the same today. Syracuse Quarterback Eric Dungey has completed 64.3 % on his passes this year and we look for the Cuse offense to put up enough points today to cover this big number. |
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10-15-16 | Alabama v. Tennessee +13 | Top | 49-10 | Loss | -115 | 55 h 16 m | Show |
35* graded play on Tennessee as they take on Alabama in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tennessee will lose this game by less than 9. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 156-90 since 1992 good for 63.4% winners and made a huge 57 units/unit wagered. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TENNESSEE) - in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tennessee is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Alabama is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992. Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Volunteers are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October. Tennessee is 2-0 against the spread versus Alabama over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Tennessee junior running back Alvin Kamara, who redshirted at Alabama in 2013 before transferring, figures to see the football a lot again after setting a school record with 312 all-purpose yards (127 rushing, 161 receiving, 24 returns) against Texas A&M. The terrific performance from Kamara (292 rushing yards, team-best 20 receptions) came with junior leading rusher Jalen Hurd (407 yards) sidelined with undisclosed injuries and coach Butch Jones said that Hurd will play versus Alabama. Tennesse is a tough football team and loves to keep their games close with Alabama. Take Tennessee Volunteers. |
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10-15-16 | North Carolina +7 v. Miami (Fla) | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 35 m | Show |
25* graded play on UNC as they take on Miami (FL) in ACC Coastal action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UNC will lose this game by less than 4 points and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 85-42 since 1992 good for 66.9% winners and made 38.8 units/unit wagered. Play against a home team (MIAMI) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%). The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UNC is 7-5 against the spread versus Miami since 1992. Miami is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games off an upset loss as a favorite since 1992. Richt is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in all games he has coached since 1992. Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Fundamental Discussion Points Mitch Trubisky and the Tar Heel offense were rolling until Hurricane Matthew came into town last week and shut the offense down. Until last week the Tar Heels were close in all big games this year and we look for more of the same today. The loser of this game will most likely be eliminated from winning the Coastal Division and making it to the ACC Championship Game. UNC put up 35 points in Tallahassee earlier this year and won on a last second field goal and we look for the offense to move the ball today. The Hurricanes are off a tough loss to Florida State last week and are now in a must win game this week. Brad Kaaya is having a solid season for the Canes but got a little banged up last week. We look for this one to be close throughout and like Carolina with the points. |
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10-15-16 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 76 | Top | 44-43 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
25* graded play on the OVER on W Kentucky and Middle Tennessee in Conference USA action set to start at 2:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that this game will go over 77 points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. W Kentucky is 21-7 OVER (+13.3 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 63 over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons; 13-4 OVER (+8.6 Units) after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons; 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Stockstill is 20-9 OVER (+10.1 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival as the coach of Middle Tennessee and he is 13-4 OVER (+8.6 Units) off a double digit road win as the coach of MT State. 5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER the total since 1992. Over is 5-1 in Hilltoppers' last 6 games in October. Over is 8-2 in Hilltoppers' last 10 games following a ATS loss. Over is 12-3-1 in Blue Raiders last 16 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Fundamental Discussion Points This is a big number in this game, but it comes with reason, Both offenses have played well all year and are averaging 37 points a game and that comes with playing some Big Power 5 Schools, The last 2 years The Hilltoppers hit 50 points against the Blue Raiders. Both Quarterbacks have played well this year and we look for both teams to move the ball with ease and the scoreboard to light up today. Take the Over. |
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10-15-16 | NC State v. Clemson -17.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
25* graded play on Clemson as they take on NC State in ACC Atlantic action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game by more than 20 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-5 over the last 10 seasons good for an incredible 83.9% winners. Play on Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (CLEMSON) - after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 29 total points or less were scored. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons; 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) after a win by 35 or more points since 1992; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. NC State is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in road games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. Doeren is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers as the coach of NC State. Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Tigers are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Fundamental Discussion Points Deshaun Watson and the Clemson offense has been in high gear after starting off the season slow. This is a key game for Clemson in the ACC Atlantic Division as if the Tigers win this game it would put the Tigers in the Drivers seat to return to the ACC Championship Game. The Clemson offense has been averaging 47 points a game at home this year and the defense has been solid against everyone not named Lamar Jackson. The Wolfpack offense has been good this year, but the defense has been average, take away help from Hurricane Matthew last week and the stop troops are nothing to get excited about and we don't see them slowing Deshaun Watson down today. Clemson won by 15 on the road last year and shut out State 41-0 in the last trip to Clemson. The Tigers get a bye next week and 2 weeks to prepare for their big trip to Tallahassee. We look for Deshaun Watson to have another big day and get back in the Heisman race, and the offense to keep rolling and the Defense to continue to play well again. Take the Tigers and lay the points. |
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10-14-16 | Mississippi State +7.5 v. BYU | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 61 h 25 m | Show |
25* graded play on Mississippi State as they take on BYU in FBS action set to start at 10:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miss. State will lose this game by less than 4 points and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-20 over the last 5 seasons good for 67.2% winners. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BYU) - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BYU is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. since 1992; 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992; 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs since 1992. MSST is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. SEC. Fundamental Discussion Points Mississippi State and BYU split their previous meetings in 2001 and 2002, with the road team winning each time. Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen went 2-0 against the Cougars while serving as Utah's quarterback coach in 2003-04. MSST has a higher completion percentage per game (60.24%) and allow a lower completion percentage than BYU. In fact, the Cougars rank a lowly 128th in the country allowing 69.79% completions against them. In almost all other categories these teams are pretty neck and neck. Look for the Bulldogs to throw and complete a bit more to press this advantage. Take Mississippi State. |
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10-13-16 | Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 31 h 17 m | Show |
25* graded play on the UNDER in Denver at San Diego action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that this total score will be UNDER 42 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-7 over the last 10 seasons good for 82.1% winners and made 24.3 units/unit wagered. Play Under any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN DIEGO) - after going over the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, after the first month of the season. Another proven system supports this play posting a 32-10 over the last 5 season good for 76.2% winners and made 21 units/unit wagered. Play Under home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN DIEGO) - off a road loss against a division rival, with a losing record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Diego is 25-11 UNDER (+12.9 Units) in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since 1992; 33-17 UNDER (+14.3 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992; 46-21 UNDER (+22.9 Units) in home games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992; 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) after gaining 350 or more passing yards in last game since 1992; 26-8 UNDER (+17.2 Units) in home games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992; 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) in home games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons. Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Under is 8-1 in Chargers last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in San Diego. Fundamental Discussion Points Offenses in Thursday games played on the short week since the start of the 2012 season have averaged only 3.89 TDs per game compared to the regular games average of 4.57 TDs per game. C.J. Anderson has been unable to top 50 yards rushing in any of the last three games and mustered just three carries longer than four yards last week heading into a clash with the league's eighth-best rushing defense, San Diego. Melvin Gordon had trouble getting going in his previous encounter with Denver, fumbling twice while being held to 55 yards in a 17-3 setback on Dec. 6. We cannot forget that Denver's defense are still man-eating monsters. Take the UNDER in the total. |
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10-10-16 | Bucs +6 v. Panthers | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
25* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Carolina in NFC South action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that TB will lose this game by fewer than four points and also has a great shot to win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-4 ATS mark good for 86% winners since 2010. Play on underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games and is now facing an opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games. Here is a money line system that underscores the vey possibility of a TB win tonight. It has gone 22-5 for 82% winners since 2005. Play against home teams using the money line (CAROLINA) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, when playing on Monday night. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TB is a solid 61-26 ATS (+32.4 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points; 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Fundamental Discussion Points Carolina has issues on both sides of the ball, scoring only 10 points in a Week 3 home loss to Minnesota before its defense was shredded for 48 points in last week's drubbing at Atlanta. Cam Newton will be out, which significantly hurts the Panthers' chances. Buccaneers WR Vincent Jackson had 10 catches for 147 yards and a score the last time he faced Carolina. Tampa Bay's defense allows less yards per play, a lower pass completion percentage, and are 8th (to Carolina's 20th) in opponent's 3rd down conversion percentage. With the NFL MVP, the Panthers went 1-2, without him, I see the TB having a solid chance. Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers. |
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10-09-16 | Giants +7 v. Packers | Top | 16-23 | Push | 0 | 29 h 19 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Giants as they take on the Green Bay Packers in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Giants will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a strong opportunity to win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-8 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 2005. Play on road teams (NY GIANTS) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 14 points or less last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Giants are a solid 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games when they allow 5.5 to 6 net passing yards/attempt; 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games when both teams score 20 or more points; 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 to 1 yard/play. Fundamental Discussion Points Rogers has not played well this year and his team has been out-statted in all three games. They are coming off the BYE, but this means little when we gather up all of the data from previous years in this situation. Key is that Rogers does not have the personnel to stretch the field against the Giants defense and if he is unable to post better than 6 yards per pass attempt, his team’s chances of winning the game are reduced significantly. |
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10-09-16 | Bengals -2 v. Cowboys | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
25* graded play on Cincinnati as they take on Dallas in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cincinnati will win this game by at least 4 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-12 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 2010. Play on road teams (CINCINNATI) in a game involving two excellent passing teams gaining >=7.3 PYA, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cincinnati is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons; Dallas is just 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) in home games when they allow 350 to 400 total yards; 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in home games when they allow 5.5 to 6 total yards per play. Fundamental Discussion Points Dallas is 3-1, but have played an easy schedule, especially when compared to who Cincinnati has played (at Jets, @ Pittsburgh, Denver, and Miami). Bengals rushing defense has been extremely good and they will be able to contain the strong Dallas attack today. This forces 3rd and long situations for a rookie QB to execute and that is not a something I see being a good situation for Dallas. |
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10-08-16 | California v. Oregon State +14 | Top | 44-47 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
35* graded play on Oregon State as they take on California in a PAC-12 Conference matchup set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that OSU will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a decent shot at posting the major upset win too. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 30* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. I also think simply adding a 3* play using the money line to the 35* wager using the line is a solid investment as well. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cal is just 38-97 ATS (-68.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 15-32 ATS (-20.2 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points; 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) when they commit 1 more turnover than their opponents; OSU is a rock solid 46-16 ATS (+28.4 Units) in home games when they score 28 or more points. Fundamental Discussion Points After sending 21 seasons crunching numbers to create metrics, there is one dominant theme in many college football games and it pivots around the number 28. Many teams success or failure surrounds the number 28 and it can be if they score 28 or more or allow 28 or less points. In this game we have both in that CAL is horrible when allowing 28 points and OSU has been largely successful when scoring 28 or more. There is an 89% probability that OSU will score more than 28 points in this game. This game will be a PAC-12 shootout with a posted total of 71 points. This is NOT a recommendation for the ‘OVER” at all, but fact is that the matchups clearly show this will not be a defensive struggle focused on field position. This all favors OSU to compete for four quarters and keep this game to within 1 score going into the final 7:30 of the game. Oregon State may have a weak defense, but Cal’s is even weaker based on a large percentage of the metrics calculated. I also like that OSU does not make mental mistakes as reflected in penalties/game where Cal does exhibit far more mental mistakes. I don’t think teams truly get caught looking ahead as many times as the media will want you to expect. However, Cal does have a big test coming up against Oregon in 2 weeks. So, the fact that Oregon is next with a BYE week looming could create coaching nightmares for the Cal staff. Take Oregon State. |
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10-08-16 | Florida State +2.5 v. Miami (Fla) | Top | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
25* graded play on as they take on the action set to start at 4:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that FSU will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-16 mark ATS for 73% winners since 2005. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (FLORIDA ST) with a struggling defense allowing 425 or more total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is a miserable 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games. Fundamental Discussion PointsFSU is definitely not off to the start they had hoped, losing the last two games to end up at 3-2. FSU desperately needs to bounce back this game and they will do that with the help of their offensive line giving way to an impressive day for both Dalvin Cook (FSU RB) andDeondre Francois (FSU QB). Miami may have started the season at 4-0 but they have not truly been tested by a high-powered offense yet; this week, Miami has to face their first offense with true athleticism and speed. FSU’s offense is averaging 508.8 yards per game and has a fairly balanced offensive scheme. FSU’s offensive efficiency rating is an 85.7 (out of 100), ranking fifth in the nation at the moment. Miami has not faced an offense anywhere near this, with their last opponents having efficiency ratings of 24.2 (FAU), 50.5 (Georgia Tech), and 51 (Appalachian State). Due to the untested defense of Miami, and the impressive offense of FSU, I predict FSU will pull off this shootout victory. |
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10-08-16 | Notre Dame v. NC State -2.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
25* graded play on NC State as they take on Notre Dame in NCAA Football action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NC State will win this game by more than 5 points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Notre Dame is 47-71 ATS (-31.1 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing less than 7.5 yards per return since 1992; 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992; 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992; 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Kelly is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games as the coach of Notre Dame. Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Wolfpack are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Wolfpack are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Wolfpack are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Wolfpack are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Fundamental Discussion Points N.C. State should be able to keep pace offensively behind quarterback Ryan Finley, who is completing 72.4 percent of his passes and has thrown for nine TDs without an interception. Finley benefits from a balanced attack that is averaging 208 yards on the ground and has totaled 12 rushing TDs, led by senior running back Matthew Dayes (437 yards, three TDs). NC State won the last meeting very easily 28-6 and are significantly ahead of ND in all the metrics. Notre Dame is a young and 'improving' team this year. Take NC State Wolfpack. |
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10-08-16 | Maryland v. Penn State +3 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Maryland in Big Ten action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Penn State will win this game. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Maryland is 35-89 ATS (-62.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games when their defense allows 250 to 300 net passing yards since 1992; 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) when they allow 400 to 450 total yards since 1992. Penn State is 107-37 ATS (+66.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Terrapins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Terrapins are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win. Terrapins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Terrapins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Terrapins are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Fundamental Discussion Points The Terps will have their hands full with Lions signal-caller Trace McSorley, who totaled 408 yards of total offense - the third highest single-game total in school history – as Penn State rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit last week to defeat Minnesota 29-26 in overtime. McSorley (58.9 completion percentage, six TDs, three interceptions) leads the Big Ten in passing yards (1,284) and frequently targets wideouts Chris Godwin (23 catches, 325 yards), DaeSean Hamilton (16, 169) and DeAndre Thompkins (14, 237). Sophomore running back Saquon Barkley has 380 yards rushing this season. Penn State junior kicker Tyler Davis converted three field goals against Minnesota to match a career high and move his consecutive field goals streak to 17, breaking the school record of 15 held by Sam Ficken. Penn State coach James Franklin was the offensive coordinator at Maryland from 2008-10 and its wide receivers coach from 2000-04. Take Penn State Nittany Lions and the points. |
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10-08-16 | TCU v. Kansas +28.5 | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
25* graded play on Kansas as they take on TCU in BIG 12 action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Kansas will lose this game by less than 20 points.. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kansas is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game since 1992. Patterson is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game as the coach of TCU and he is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game as the coach of TCU. Horned Frogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Fundamental Discussion Points TCU's shaky defense has allowed more than 40 points on three occasions this season. Willis has completed 58.4 percent of his passes for 374 yards, three touchdowns and one interception and Beaty said he has been more efficient in recent games than Cozart (62.6 percent for 581 yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions). Sophomore receiver Steven Sims Jr. has performed well with 17 receptions for a team-best 312 yards and five touchdowns, but the running game has struggled with senior Ke'aun Kinner (179 yards) being the most productive back. The Horned Frogs have struggled to stop opponents on third downs -- ranking in a tie for 98th nationally at 43.5 percent. With the spread so high on a conference opponent on the road, there's a small chance for TCU to cover. Take the many points with Kansas Jayhawks. |
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10-07-16 | Clemson -17.5 v. Boston College | Top | 56-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
25* graded play on Clemson as they take on Boston College in ACC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game by more than 20 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-13 over the last 5 seasons good for 74.5% winners and made 23.7 units/unit wagered. Play against home underdogs (BOSTON COLLEGE) - after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, with an experienced QB returning as starter. Another proven system supports this play posting a 57-24 over the last 10 seasons good for 70.4% winners and made 30.6 units/unit wagered. Play On road favorites (CLEMSON) - with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game, after leading their last 3 games by 10+ points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons; 28-11 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games after scoring 37 points or more last game since 1992; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons; 29-11 ATS (+16.9 Units) in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Swinney is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of Clemson. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. Eagles are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Eagles are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Fundamental Discussion Points As quarterback Deshaun Watson goes, so go the Tigers, and the junior recorded season highs of 306 yards and five touchdowns in the thriller against Louisville. He also tacked on a season-best 91 rushing yards and has been sacked only twice this season, giving him enough time to consistently find the likes of Mike Williams (25 catches, 373 yards, two TDs) and Ray-Ray McCloud (24, 271, two). Senior linebacker Ben Boulware is coming off a monster performance in which he registered a career-high 18 tackles (three for losses), a fumble recovery and a pass deflection - good enough to earn him ACC Player of the Week honors at his position. Clemson has won seven in a row on the road, one shy of matching the longest run in program history (1978-79). Take Clemson Tigers. |
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10-06-16 | Cardinals v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 33-21 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
25* graded play on San Francisco as they take on Arizona in NFC action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SF will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-12 mark using the money line good for 75% winners and has made 27 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on any team using the money line (SAN FRANCISCO) after 2 consecutive games where they committed 1 or fewer turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers. This system has gone 17-4 good for 81% winners over the last three seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SF is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points In the NFL, parity has never been more present than during the first four weeks of this season and it has caused week-to-week reversals of team performances. SF crushed the Rams in Week only to lose three straight games since while the Rams have won three games straight. Neither did anyone expect Arizona to be 1-3 to start the season. However, Arizona has played below their performance metrics established in 2015 and we do not see them rebounding anytime soon. Drew Stanton will be under center tonight and that creates even greater chemistry issues with receivers and timing routes. On the SF offensive side of the ball, protecting Gabbert with balanced play calling has become coach Kelly's M.O. Running back Carlos Hyde has a league-leading five rushing touchdowns in four games. While the 49ers are 32nd in the NFL in passing, teams have not been able to stack the line to stuff Hyde, and San Francisco is converting 40 percent of third downs. The deep speed of wide receiver Torrey Smith keeps most defenses on their toes, even if his season stats of nine catches, 106 yards, one touchdown don't completely tell that story. I do think you’ll see Smith targeted far more often tonight on shorter underneath routes when he is in man coverage and especially in cover zones and man underneath zone schemes. Getting Smith the ball in space creates opportunities for greater yards gained after the catch. As of this moment, SF is actually the better team. |
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10-06-16 | Temple +10 v. Memphis | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
25* graded play on Temple as they take on Memphis in AAC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by less than 6 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-24 over the last 10 seasons good for 69.6% winners and made 28.6 units/unit wagered. Play against a home team (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Memphis is a poor 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992 and they are 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. Temple is 3-0 against the spread versus Memphis since 1992. Rhule is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as an underdog as the coach of Temple. Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Owls are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf. Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October. Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Tigers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Tigers are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Fundamental Discussion Points Memphis struggled in a 20-point loss at Ole Miss last week in its final non-conference tune-up. The Tigers' defense allowed 624 yards while the team committed four turnovers and seven penalties against the Rebels, leaving first-year coach Mike Norvell searching for answers. With a quick turnaround to this Thursday night battle, that could prove problematic. Temple has a high class defense that won't allow anywhere near the Tigers' numbers they posted in their 3 wins. The Owls also have had success, esepecially against the spread, when facing the Tigers. Owls K Austin Jones is 8-for-8 in field goals (long of 45) and 21-for-21 on extra points this season. Take Temple Owls with the points. |
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10-05-16 | Georgia Southern v. Arkansas State +7.5 | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
25* graded play on Arkansas State as they host Georgia Southern in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that AS will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot to win the game. will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. AS is a solid 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games when their defense allows 150 or less net passing yards; 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt. Fundamental Discussion Points An 0-4 team getting just 4 points to a 3-1 team is somewhat rare. The biggest factor in this game is identifying why AS is 0-4. The strength of schedule (SOS) is the reason with AS having played Toledo, @ Auburn, @Utah State, and then losing at home to Western Michigan. That loss is not a good one admittedly, however, this was a huge wakeup call for the team. I am certain messages from coaches have emphasized the need to stop feeling sorry for themselves and that they have a great opportunity to represent the school very well on National TV. The Redwolves were a preseason pick to win the Sun Belt Conference, which can still happen since this is the first Conference game for the team. |
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10-03-16 | Giants v. Vikings -4 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
25* graded play on Minnesota as they take on the NY Giants in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that will win this game. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-6 mark using the money line for 86.4% winners and has made 32.2 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play on home teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) that are mistake-free teams averaging |
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10-02-16 | Cowboys v. 49ers +2 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 24 m | Show |
25* graded play on San Francisco as they take on Dallas in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that San Francisco will win this game. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-22 over the last 10 seasons good for 69.9% winners and made 26.8 units/unit wagered. Play against road favorites (DALLAS) - with a good rushing defense - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Fran is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is a poor 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992 and they are 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992. Garrett is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) as a favorite as the coach of Dallas. Cowboys are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4. Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October. 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4. 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. 49ers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games in October. Fundamental Discussion Points San Francisco has gone 8-2-1 ATS at home vs. Dallas since 1980, while the Cowboys have covered just 48 of 123 on the road off a win, dating back to 1985. Dez Bryant discovered that he is nursing a hairline fracture in his right leg near the knee. Dallas has lost its last six decisions without QB Tony Romo and Bryant in the lineup. Cowboys DE Randy Gregory will serve a 10-game suspension for multiple violations of the substance abuse policy, the NFL confirmed on Thursday. Carlos Hyde is tied with Elliot in yards per rush (3.9) and Hyde is tied for the NFL best four rushing touchdowns. Take San Francisco 49ers with the points. |
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