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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-19-13 | Auburn +14 v. Texas A&M | Top | 45-41 | Win | 100 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Auburn as they take on Texas A&M in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will lose this game by fewer than 11 points. I love the advantages that Auburn has running the ball. I would expect them to attack the A&M suspect defensive front with 45+ rushing plays. SIM shows a very probability that Auburn will gain 300+ rushing yards. In past games where Tigers have gained 300+ rushing yards, they are a solid 4-0 ATS the past three seasons and 17-5 ATS since 1992. A&M is an imperfect 0-9 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 300+ rushing yards. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?35-7 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2007. Play on road underdogs (AUBURN) with an incredible offense averaging 450 or more total yards/game and after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. As already mentioned the power ground attack from Auburn will serve to run down the physicality of the A&M defensive front and will force them to go to man coverage. That is where play action will be a great opportunity for big gains. Take the Tigers.
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10-17-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Arizona Cardinals +6.5 | Top | 34-22 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
10* graded play on Arizona as they take on Seattle in NGL action set to start Thursday Night at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that ARZ will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like playing the game as an 8.5* play getting the points and a 1.5* unit play using the money line. Another option if you are increasingly bullish on this idea is to simply play a 10* amount using the line and add a 3* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?24-10 mark using the money line and has made 28 units/unit wagered averaging a +160 Dog Play since 1983. Play against road teams using the money line (SEATTLE) that are excellent rushing team averaging >=150 RY/game) and is facing a poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) and after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. Arizona is solid 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) when playing against a top-level team winning > 75% of their games since 1992. What I see here in this matchup is the ARZ defense containing the ground game and Marshawn Lynch. The Seattle OL is banged up and has not graded well, especially last week. Lynch is having a another solid season forcing 29 missed tackles and 285 of his 485 rushing yards coming after contact. However, ARZ LB Brinley leads all NFL LB's in run defense grade. Shaughnessy is next and ranks very high as well in this category. I am confident you will see secure solid tackling from ARZ tonight and will force Russell Wilson into 2nd-and-long situations. ARZ has just 6 missed tackles in their last three games. Wilson needs the ground attack to be effective and leads the NFL using play-action 38% of the time. ARZ knows this and play-action is not nearly as effective in long-yard situations. ARZ RB Andre Ellington will have a big game tonight as he has speed/quickness advantages against the Seattle matchups. He will be used all over the field lining up as WR, slot WR, RB. Palmer will look to get the ball to him in space and let him make plays to gain max yards after the catch. I also believe Mendelhall's pounding ground attack will be successful enough to keep pressure off of Palmer. He obviously needs to have a better game tonight and I believe he will. Take Arizona.
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10-15-13 | Louisiana-Lafayette +3.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
10* graded play on UL-Lafayette as they take on Western Kentucky in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that ULL will win this game. I prefer playing this 10* Titan as an 8.5* amount using the line and a 1.5* amount using the money line to exploit the potential for the upset win. LA Lafayette is a solid 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=425 yards/game since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?34-7 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play on road underdogs (LA LAFAYETTE) with an incredible offense averaging 450 or more total yards/game and after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. This system has gone 23-3 ATS over the past three seasons. Take UL-Lafayette.
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10-14-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. San Diego Chargers +2 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Diego Chargers as they host the Indianapolis Colts in NFC action set to start at 8:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Chargers will win this game. The Chargers are banged up, but QB Rivers has been sensational so far this season completing a remarkable 74% of his passes. Even last week in an 'off' game he threw for 411 passing yards and completed 70% of his throws. This is not a fluke and it is not because he is completing a lot of short dump-off passes. In fact, he has increased his average depth of target ratio from 7.8 in 2012 to 8.5 in 2013. Even more impressive is that he has decreased his average time to release by 0.32 seconds in 2013. So, he has more or less adopted many of the passing techniques an dreads that ahs made Peyton manning so incredible. Rivers is also showing some great accuracy with the deep ball as well. He has a strong group of receivers and this allows him to spread the ball all over the field and forces defenses to not double team any WR. Antonio gates will see a lot action tonight with many routs targeting the greatest weakness in the Colts interior LB defense. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?24-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN DIEGO) and are excellent offensive teams gaining >=5.8 YPP and is now facing a team with a poor defense allowing between 5.4 to 5.8 YPP, and after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. 16 of the 24 winning plays based on this system covered the spread by seven or more points and this under scores my strong belief that the Chargers will win this game fairly comfortably. Take the Chargers.
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10-13-13 | New Orleans Saints v. New England Patriots -1.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
10* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the New Orleans Saints in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by three or more points. After last week's loss and having scored just 6 points, the Patriots offense will rebound in a very big way against a suspect Saints defense. SIM projects that Brady and Co. will gain better than 6.0 Yards-Per-Play, and will rush for 125 to 150 yards. In past games, the Patriots are 16-2 ATS the past three seasons when gaining 6.0+ yards per play and 5-1 ATS the past three seasons when gaining 125 to 150 rushing yards. The ground attack will be easily attainable today for the Patriots and this opens up the whole playbook to Brady in play action situations. I also believe Thompkins will have a huge day in the vertical game for the Patriots. The Saints have one of the worst grading run blocking OL in the NFL. Even before Wilfork went out to injury, Tommy Kelly was the best interior lineman on the Patriots. He hobbled out after a third goal and he was clearly missed when the Bengals stuffed the ball into the end zone for the winning TD. Brandon Spikes is playing great football and is coming off a career best grade in last week's loss. He is one of the best run stopping LB in the game right now. For NE, Ridley will be back and I expect him to have a strong day running behind the fourth best run blocking OL in the NFL. The Patriots can and will stop the Saints ground attack, but the Saints will be overpowered by the Patriots ground attack. Patriots will have a huge edge in TOP and that keeps Brees off the field. Take the Patriots.
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10-13-13 | Arizona Cardinals v. San Francisco 49ers -10 | Top | 20-32 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
10* graded play 'UNDER' the posted total in the 49ers-Cardinals game and a 10* play on the 49ers set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 40 points will be scored in this game and that the 49ers will win this game by 13 or more points. Obviously, the matchups I have studied favor the 49ers to dominate this game. ARZ is just 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992. SIM shows projections calling for ARZ to have less than 75 rushing yards and that they will be outgained by 2+ yards per play. In past games, ARZ is just 0-4 ATS the past three seasons and 9-29 ATS since 1992 when they have been outgained by 2+ YPP and the 49ers are 12-2 ATS the past three seasons when allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards. 49ers are 9-1 ATS the past three seasons when out gaining their opponent by 2+ YPP. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?51-21 record for 71% winners since 1983. Play against road teams (ARIZONA) off an upset win as a home underdog and with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. Supporting the Total play 'UNDER' is a system that has gone 26-5 'UNDER' for 84% winners since 1983. Play 'under' with road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (ARIZONA) and is off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog and is now facing an opponent off a home win. So, Play 10* SF, 10* 'UNDER' and a 5* parlay SF+'Under'.
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10-13-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 | Top | 31-20 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Tampa Bay Bucs as they host Philadelphia in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bucs will win this game. I have to admit, I have never had to consider the very infectious MRSA ailment as a possible reason not to play on a team graded by my SIm and supporting game research. Obviously, I feel confident in moving forward with the release. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a? 51-23 ATS mark for 69% winners since 1983. Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) off a double digit road win and after the first month of the season has been completed. Much media attention is on the Eagle offense with Vick having a hamstring injury and backup Foles now the starter - possibly for the next several weeks. My research shows that it will be the Eagles defense that will be the main problem preventing them from winning the game and getting back to the -.500 level. I actually believe Foles is the best suited QB under the Chip Kelly spread offense scheme after watching Oregon play on the West Coast for years. So, despite that 'positive development coming out of the Vick injury, it is the Eagles defense that is vulnerable to large numbers of points each week. Revis will be matched up against Jackson and I do not see Jackson having another great game. Jackson also started a war of words stating earlier in the week that Revis could not stay up with him in the speed department. Revis chose not to enter into the war of words, but obviously that is bulletin board material for the entire defense. Jackson has been targeted 26 times this season while the rest of the Eagle WR have been targeted 48 times. The Bucs can use man coverage with Revis ro they can bracket Jackson allowing Revis to jump any slant routes, knowing he has deep help if the play is a double move one. So, with Jackson minimized to a degree, it will allow the Bucs defense to play very aggressive and get pressure on Foles. In last week's win over the Giants, the Eagles interior offensive line played poorly and the Bucs will look to bring pressure up the gut more than perimeter. This pressure will be excellent against zone runs by RB McCoy as well. Take the Bucs.
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10-12-13 | California +25.5 v. UCLA Bruins | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
10* graded play on California as they take on UCLA in PAC-12 action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cal will lose this game by 23 or fewer points. Cal has gone 0-5 ATS and as a result this line has been vastly inflated against a strong performing UCLA team. Cal gas played a very strong schedule, which has been one of the toughest in the nation so far. After all the analysis, I just don
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10-12-13 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss +6.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 51 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Mississippi as they host Texas A&M in SEC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. This game certainly has upset alert written all over it. The simulator shows a high probability that the Rebels will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and have a great shot at winning the game. I like playing this as a 10* graded Titan with the points and then adding a 3* play using the money line to play for the upset. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?28-7 ATS mark for 80% winners since 2002. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OLE MISS) off a road loss and with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent. Rebels return 19 of 22 possible starters with 9 on offense (including the QB) and 10 on defense. Simple to see that this will be an old fashion shoot out and Rebels are a near certainty to score 28+ points in this game. In past games, A&M is just 1-3 ATS this season, 3-11 ATS the past three seasons, and 20-66 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28+ points in a contest. Moreover, A&M is just 1-3 ATS this season and 3-10 ATS over the past three seasons when both teams score 28 or more points. Rebels rank low in TOP, but this is actually a reflection of the strong and powerful offense. A&M matches up horribly poor against teams like the Rebels noting they are just 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in road games when facing ball control teams averaging 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992. Add to this the fact that A&M is just 6-22 ATS (-18.2 Units) in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992 and 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 63 over the last 3 seasons. Last, but not least, Rebels have played a far more difficult schedule than A&M. A&M has played just one team in Alabama that has truly tested them while Rebels have played just one 'scrimmage' against SE Missouri State in Week 2. Their other opponents have been Vanderbilt, Texas, Alabama, and Auburn. This also marks just the second home game of the season and you can bet the home fans and student body will be more than ready to support their team. Take Mississippi.
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10-12-13 | Michigan v. Penn State +2.5 | Top | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
10* graded play on Penn State as they host No. 16 Michigan in Big Ten action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that PSU will win this game and the 2 1/2 points they are getting is a real gift. PSU is a solid 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. SIm projects that PSU will score between 22 and 28 points in this game. In past games, Michigan is just 1-6 ATS the past three years and 12-36 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 22 to 28 points in a game. I also like how PSU defense, especially the front seven matches up against Michigan in this game. The SIM also confirms this projecting that Michigan will not gain more than 300 yards of offense. In past games, Wolverines are just 13-27 ATS since 1992 when they have gained less than 300 offensive yards. Breaking this projection down, it shows Michigan to gain an average between 4.0 and 4.5 yards per play. In past games, Michigan is 0-2 ATS the past three seasons and 13-30 ATS since 1992 when they have gained between 4.5 and 5.0 yards per play. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?32-19 mark for 63% winners using the money line and has made 27.1 units per unit wagered since 2007. It has averaged a +144 DOG play. Play on a home team using the money line (PENN ST) after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. Take Penn State.
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10-10-13 | San Diego State v. Air Force +4 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
10* graded play on Air Force as they take on San Diego State in CFB action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that AF will lose this game by fewer than four points and has an excellent shot at getting a home upset win. I like playing this as a 10* play getting the points and then add no more than a 2.5* amount using the money line. AF got permission and approval from the government to resume all sports activities. Navy and Army are back in business with their sports programs as well. I won't get into just how rediculous Washington looks, well not Washington, but the politicians that we entrust the day-to-day operations of our country. SDST is coming off a shootout with Nevada winning 51-44 and covered by the 'hook'. However, such big offensive games often times lead to letdowns in the next game. SDST is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons; 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. AF has lost five straight games, but has played a stronger level of competition than SDST. This seasoning will benefit AF in this matchup and they know this is a game they can win. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?25-7 mark for 78% winners and has made 23 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against a road team using the money line (SAN DIEGO ST) and is off a big home win scoring 38 or more points and sporting a losing record. It has gone a perfect 6-0 over the past five seasons. Take Air Force.
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10-10-13 | NY Giants v. Chicago Bears UNDER 47.5 | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 12 m | Show |
10* graded play 'UNDER' the posted total in the NY Giants - Chicago bears game set to start at 8:20 PM ET. This Thursday Night Football game will be far less 'offensive' than the line indicates. Giants offense and overall team play has not been offensive, but rather horrific during their 5-game losing streak. HC Coughlin has a history of circling the wagons around a better defensive focus and a more conservative fundamental offensive scheme. Chicago started off the season with three straight wins, but now is nursing a 2-game losing streak. They too, need to minimize mistakes and execute the offense at a far higher level. What I believe you will see is a lot of yards gained between the 20's and then more FG made than TD scored in the red zone as the respective defenses tighten up. Both teams need to NOT give up huge vertical plays and this in turn allows both QB to execute underneath routes in zone coverages. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 45 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?64-33 mark for 66% winners since 1983. Play 'under' with home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CHICAGO) and after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games and is now facing an opponent after allowing 30 points or more last game. Coughlin is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) in road games when facing terrible defensive teams allowing >=6 yards/play as the coach of the Giants; 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) in road games facing struggling defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game; 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) in road games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games in all games he has coached. Take the 'UNDER'
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10-07-13 | NY Jets +10 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
10* graded play on the NY jets as they take on the Atlanta Falcons in MNF action set to start at 8:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Jets will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Much ash been made about the woes of the Jets, but it is actually the Falcons, who have the disjointed lines right now. The Falcons have the tow worst starting tackles in the NFL in Holmes and Baker. They rank horribly low in pass block efficiency ratings. They have added Jeremy Trueblood, but he is average at best. As a unit, the Falcons rank 29th in PBE and that is not going to get the job done against a very strong Jets defensive front. They Jets have one of the best three-man frons in the NFL with Sheldon Richardson, NT Harrison, and Wilkerson, who is off to an average start to the season. I fully expect him to lift his game tonight under the MNF lights. So, Atlanta will be reduced to a pass-only offense very quickly in this game. The Jets secondary will have to play better and I expect Cromartie to grade high tonight after several very poor games. Not many will agree with me right now, but I definitely see the Jets being able to run the ball on the ground tonight. I like the matchups they have for this success and this will take immeasurable pressure off of Smith and allow him to use play action to hook up for big gains in the vertical attack. He already leads the NFL with 12 completions of greater than 25 yards totaling 433 yards. This threat will eliminate the Falcons ability to bring 8-men to the box. Atlanta is just 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. SIM projects that the Jets will gain between 125 and 150 rushing yards. In past games, Atlanta is just 3-6 ATS the past three years and 20-38 ATS since 1992 when having allowed that range of rushing yards. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?23-5 ATS for 82% winners since 2002. Play on any team (NY JETS) that is a struggling offensive team scoring between 14 to 18 PPG and is now facing a poor defensive team allowing 23 to 27 PPG and after a loss by 21 or more points. This system has gone 11-1 ATS over the past five season. Take the Jets.
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10-06-13 | Houston Texans v. San Francisco 49ers -4 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
10* graded play on the SF 49ers as they take on the Houston Texans in Sunday Night Football action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?79-39 mark for 67% winners since 2002. It is 4-1 ATS this season. Play on favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) in non-conference games that are off a win against a division rival. SIM projects that SF offense will be in gear tonight and will average more than 6.0 yards-per-play will gain between 350 and 400 offensive yards. In past games, SF is a rock solid 8-0 ATS the past three seasons when gaining between 350 and 400 offensive yards and are 15-3 ATS when gaining more than 6.0 yards-per-play over the past three seasons. Houston is just 1-6 ATS when allowing 6.0+ yards-per-play over the past three seasons. Kubiak is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games off a home loss as the coach of Houston. There was no more impressive OL unit in the league last year than the 49ers
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10-06-13 | Carolina Panthers v. Arizona Cardinals +2.5 | Top | 6-22 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Carolina Panthers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game. Carolina QB Newton is coming off a huge performance the most lop-sided win in the franchise's 19-year history. Adding to the public's irrational betting on Carolina is the fact they are coming off a BYE as well. A supporting 'indicator' is that better than 75% of all best are being made on Carolina. Whenever I see 70% bets on one team at the 12 different books I monitor, than it is an immediate red flag. The majority of my plays will be against the public flows, but not all. Bottom line is that I relay on my SIM for all projections and for all 10* graded plays. The following research, betting flows, systems, and game situations serve to reinforce and support the graded play by the SIM. Arizona is a solid 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) when facing very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game since 1992; 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in home games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?34-11 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2002. Play against road teams (CAROLINA) after a win by 21 or more points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. Week 5 is becoming the week when suspended players return from their off-season transgressions and Arizona gets back a major part of their defense in Daryl Washington. The inside linebackers have struggled against some of the better TE in the league. Washington will provide immediate help in coverage and pass rush situations. Combined with their best defensive player, Paterson, this defense takes on a much stronger look that I believe Cam Newtown will struggle against. Another factor in this game is that Arizona traded their starting LT, Levi Brown, to Pittsburgh and this puts Bradley Sowell in the LT position protecting Palmer's blind side. Interesting to note, that he played for Arians before and they did pick him up off waivers from Indy. That alone, gives me the confidence that HC Arians believes Sowell is better than Brown and will do a great bob in run blocking and pass protection. Take Arizona.
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10-06-13 | Jacksonville Jaguars +11.5 v. St. Louis Rams | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 12 m | Show |
10* graded play on the JAX Jaguars as they take to the road to play the St. Louis Rams in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Jacksonville reminds of a stock that just keeps getting hammered lower in price as each week passes. That stock finally reaches a severe oversold condition at which point, the stock rallies sharply. That is exactly where I find JAX for this game. I fully expect Maurice Jones-Drew to have a huge game as St. Louis ranks 26th allowing 4.6 RYPC, 24th facing 29 rushing plays per game, 30th allowing 133.5 RYPG. St. Louis rushing attack is even worse then their run defense. They rank 31st in the NFL gaining just 2.6 YPC and last averaging just 47.2 RYPG. STL is just 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after being outgained by 150 or more total yards 2 consecutive games since 1992; 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) after gaining 3.5 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?40-11 mark for 78% winners since 1983. Play against favorites (ST LOUIS) in a game involving two poor rushing teams with both outrushed by opponents by 40+ YPG and after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. Here is a second system that ahs gone 27-7 ATS for 79.4% winners since 1983. Play on road underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more, a terrible team posting a <=25% win percentage and now playing a team with a losing record. This system has gone 14-1 ATS over the past 10 seasons and is 8-0 ATS over the past five seasons. In the battle of two very weak teams, this is just far too many points to ignore. Take JAX.
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10-05-13 | Arizona State -5.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -104 | 53 h 1 m | Show |
10* graded play on Arizona State as they take on Notre Dame in CFB action set to start at 7:30 PM ET in Arlington Texas. The simulator shows a high probability that ASU will win this game by 7 or more points. ASU has one of the most potent offenses in the nation and rank 15th in the nation averaging 499 yards per game. They attack through the air, but their running game has to be respected as well. They are not just a one dimensional team as in year's past and I just don't see how ND is going to be able to hold them to less than 500 offensive yards. The SIM projects that ASU will gain more than 500 yards. In past games, they are a solid 2-0 ATS this season, 9-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 36-13 ATS since 1992 when gaining 500+ yards. There is an even higher probability that ASU will score more than 28 points and this has not been good news for ND in past games. ND is just 0-2 ATS this season, 1-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 12-60 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points. Take Arizona State.
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10-05-13 | TCU +9 v. Oklahoma | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
10* graded play on the TCH as they take on Oklahoma in CFB action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. I also like a 5* play 'OVER' the posted total. The simulator shows a high probability that TCU will lose this game by fewer than seven points and has a reasonable probability of pulling off the upset win. TC is projected by the SIM to have at least 28 points on the scoreboard. In past games this has not been good news for backers of the Sooners noting they are just 0-9 ATS the past three seasons and 11-59 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points in a game. I also believe this will be a shootout and that favors TCU. Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS the past three seasons and 11-25 ATS since 1992 when both teams score 18 ore more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?21-19 mark using the line and has made a whopping 45 units/unit wagered since 2002 averaging a +303 dog play. Play on a road team using the money line (TCU) after a game where they forced 5 or more turnovers and is now facing an opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. The money line for this game is just below 300 so consider an optional 3* parlay playing TCU with the ML and the 'OVER'.
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10-05-13 | LSU v. Mississippi State +9 | Top | 59-26 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
7* graded play on Mississippi State as they take on LSU in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that MS will lose this game by fewer than 8 points. LSU is coming off a very physical and highly emotional loss at Georgia last week and is will be very difficult for them to take this opponent with the same focus they had for Georgia. LSU is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992; HC Miles is just 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored as the coach of LSU. SIM shows projections calling for MS to attain 400+ yards in total offense and average 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. In past games, LSU is just 9-23 ATS since 1992 when allowing 400 to 450 total yards and 10-22 ATS when allowing 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. This is State's shot at LSU and they know it.
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10-05-13 | Oregon v. Colorado +40 | Top | 57-16 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
7* graded play on Colorado as they host Oregon in PAC-12 matchup set to start at 6:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Colorado will lose this game by fewer than 36 points. Yes, this is a mismatch, but getting just far too many points. What matters most is that this is a 7* graded play from my SIM and should be played accordingly and with discipline. I also believe that Oregon is looking ahead to their showdown with Washington next week and will be taking starters out of the game once they get an insurmountable lead. RB De'Anthony Thomas is already going to miss this game with an ankle injury so it stands to reason Colorado, at some point, will be matched up against second and third team units. Take the Buffalos.
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10-05-13 | Georgia Tech +6.5 v. Miami (Florida) | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
10* graded play on Georgia Tech as they take on Miami (Fla) in ACC action set to start at 3;30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that GT will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at a big upset road win this afternoon. GT is a solid 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) after playing a Thursday game since 1992. Extra rest and prep work is a huge plus for GT. Miami has been dominant in their last two games, however, they are just 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. GT is coming off a game where they forced no turnovers in their loss to V-Tech. They also struggled to run the ball and having to pass 24 times is just not their style of play that wins games. However, coaching is a big factor at the Collegiate level and HC Johnson is a remarkable 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) after a game where they forced no turnovers as the coach of GT; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams allowing <=310 yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?30-7 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2008. 70% of the winning plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. Play on a road team (GEORGIA TECH) after scoring and allowing 17 points or less points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. Take Georgia Tech.
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10-05-13 | UMass +27 v. Bowling Green | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
7* graded play on UMASS as they play Bowling Green in CFB action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?26-7 ATS mark for 79% winners since 1992. Play on a road team (MASSACHUSETTS) off 3 or more consecutive 'unders', and is a struggling offensive team scoring 14 or less points/game. Over the past three seasons, this system has gone a solid 7-1 ATS. This system reflects the irrational exuberance being shown by public bettors backing Bowling Green. The public sees the records of each team and that UMASS is not scoring points. What they don't see is the vastly more difficult schedule UMASS has played to date. UMASS, by comparison, has played a more difficult schedule than many of the Top-25 ranked teams. They played at Wisconsin and at K-State with home tilts playing Maine and Vanderbilt. So, I expect the UMASS offense to have afar easier time moving the ball against Bowling Green and will certainly score enough points to cover this inflated spread.
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10-03-13 | UCLA v. Utah +4.5 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 58 m | Show |
10* graded play on Utah as they host UCLA in PAC-12 action set to start at 10:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Utah will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game. UCLA may be ranked and has the 12th best statistical offense, but Utah at 3-1 has played a vastly more difficult schedule. They have defeated Nebraska on the road, but even that is a bit of stretch to qualify for a strong win. They had two other scrimmages against Nevada and New Mexico State. Now, they face a seasoned Utah team that has a very powerful offense too. UCLA has a stable of RB and will be getting back Thigpen for this game adding to their depth. Yet, I just don't agree with the line favoring UCLA and do strongly believe that Utah is the better team, especially on the defensive side. SIM shows a high projection calling for Utah to score 28+ points in this game. In past games, UCLA is just 5-10 ATS the past three seasons and 30-71 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?21-8 mark for 72.4% winners and has made 27 units/unit wagered averaging a whopping +165 Dog play. Play on a home team using the money line (UTAH) that is off an upset win as an underdog and when playing on a Thursday. As we know Thursday is a showcase night with both teams having extra rest equating to a BYE week. Utah has had this extra time to prepare for UCLA and I am confident their defensive scheme will contain the UCLA attack. The history is not on the side of UCLA either as they have had a miserable time for the past 20 years facing very strong offensive teams. They are just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when facing excellent offensive teams averaging >=6.25 yards/play since 1992. Utah ranks 20th in the nation averaging 6.4 YPP and this has been against a much better schedule than UCLA, who ranks eighth in the nation averaging 7.1 YPP. Take Utah.
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10-03-13 | Buffalo Bills v. Cleveland Browns -4 | Top | 24-37 | Win | 100 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they host the Buffalo Bills in NFL Thursday Night Football action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will win this game by 6 or more points. These are two teams fresh off wins installed as home dogs. The Hoyer era has yet to be fully quantified and valued by the public and I strongly believe this team can continue to play well and cover spreads. Buffalo needs the presence of RB CJ Spiller and he is not anywhere close to a 100% for this game. The worst injury a RB can have where he can still manage to play is the ankle. They rely on quick bursts and cuts to gain yards and Spiller's lack of lateral movement will be evident in this game. The Browns defense is playing very well and I believe they will contain and even shutdown the Buffalo offense. Even with the trade of Richardson, the Browns OL is doing a great job in run block schemes. The SIM shows a projection calling for the Browns to gain 100 to 125 rushing yards. In past games where they have achieved this ground game success they are a solid 7-1 ATS over the past three years and 31-15 ATS dating back to 1992. A strong running game sets up play action pass plays for Hoyer to attack vertically with Josh Gorden. I think that is what was initially forgotten that when Richardson was traded, Gorden came back from a suspension and he is arguably one of the best skill players in the league. Buffalo is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. Take Cleveland.
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09-30-13 | Miami Dolphins +7 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the New Orleans Saints in a battle of unbeaten teams set to start on MNF at 8:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at staying unbeaten. The fact that this game is being played in NO is more than offset by the fact that Miami has played a vastly more difficult schedule to date. Miami has defeated Cleveland and Indy on the road and won their home opener in Week 3 against Atlanta. Saints have defeated Atlanta and Arizona on home tilts while defeating the Bucs on the road. This will be their most difficult test to date, but they are riding a huge wave of confidence led by QB Tannehill. Their last offensive drive was when Tannehill recorded his first last-minute comeback victory against the Falcons engineering a 13-play, 75-yard drive he capped with a 1-yard TD pass to rookie tight end Dion Sims with 38 seconds remaining. Those are the types of plays and drives that brings team chemistry fully together and can lead a team to the playoffs and beyond. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?86-105 mar for just 45% winners, but has made 54 units/unit wagered since 1983. This system has averaged an incredible +186 Dog play. Play against any team using the money line (NEW ORLEANS) and is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 100 or more yards/game and after outgaining previous opponent by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. The Saints are doing a much better job getting pressure on opposing QB's. The Saints defense has sacked or put opponents under duress on 29.5 percent of drop backs this season, sixth in the NFL. Last season the Saints put quarterbacks under pressure on 19.4 percent of drop backs, 27th in the NFL. However, Tannehill is making quick and correct decisions in his progressions and rarely holds the ball more than 3.0 seconds. So, the Saints pressure may be a mute point. Also, The Saints QB Brees has gone to TE Jimmy Graham a ton in the first three games. Of note is the fact that has caught 17 of his 23 passes this season when starting the play split out wide. No Saints wide receiver even has 17 total receptions. Last, but not least, Tannehill ranks best in the NFL completing 63% of his passes beyond 10 yards and this will expose the weaknesses in the Saints underneath coverage. Take the Dolphins.
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09-29-13 | New England Patriots +2.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
10* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take to the road to face the Atlanta Falcons in NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game. Last week we saw the Patriots stumble out of the blocks and Tampa Bay fail to capitalize of that fact. The result was not just an easy NE win, but we also saw the Patriots start to gel on offense. OC McDaniels and HC Belichick are arguably the best tandem in NFL history in maximizing offensive schemes to match the personnel. The Patriots have two very talented and highly skilled WR in Thompkins and Dobson get on the same page as their QB. The results have to be scary for any DC in this league having to face what will be an ever improving offense. In past seasons, the Patriots ran a base '"12" offense which is 2 WR, 2 TE, and 1 RB that opened up holes in the defense for Brady to exploit. The personnel is vastly different so the Patriots are adapting and using an "11" base scheme with 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 RB. The first two weeks, the receivers did not get consistent separation from their defenders, but they started to do so in Week 3 against a sound Bucs defense. Atlanta is banged up on both lines and I don't see how they will be able to pressure Brady for four quarters. We all have seen what happens to opponents when Brady has more than 3 seconds to throw the ball and I strongly believe that is what you will see in this game. Here are some game situations supporting the Patriots. They are a solid 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games when facing excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better since 1992; 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games facing a solid offensive team averaging >=5.65 yards/play since 1992. Take the Patriots.
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09-29-13 | Washington Redskins v. Oakland Raiders UNDER 45 | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
10* graded play 'UNDER' Washington-Oakland in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 45 points will be scored in this contest. Two teams desperate for a win are matched and neither will be looking to take chances. Both teams will have conservative schemes to minimize mistakes and get the game into the fourth quarter. Washington HC Shanahan has always been an excellent in prep for solid passing attacks. He is 16-7 UNDER (+8.3 Units) when facing good offensive teams averaging >=5.65 yards/play since being the HC of the Redskins. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?26-4 ATS mark for 87% winners since 1983. Play under the posted total with road teams against the total (WASHINGTON) and are struggling defensive teams allowing >=370 YPG and are now facing a poor defensive team allowing between 335 to 370 YPG, and after allowing 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games. 16 of the 26 winning plays covered the spread by more than 7 points. The SIM shows this to be a game where the winner may have only 17 points and one marked by more FG than TD's in the red zone. Take the 'UNDER'
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09-29-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Buffalo Bills +3 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they host the Baltimore Ravens in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a great shot at recording the mild upset win today. The parity of the NFL allows teams to have bounce back weeks after poor showings. There are always exceptions, but Buffalo is in a prime bounce back situation. They will be getting Spiller back at RB and I believe that this ground attack will be very successful against the Ravens defense that ahs not allowed a TD in 2 straight games. Buffalo is on a nice 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?114-74 mark making 51 units/unit wagered since 2002. Play against road teams using the money line (BALTIMORE) that are off a home win by 10 points or more, with the current game taking place in the first half of the season. Here is a second very strong money producing system that has gone 22-15 for just 57% winners, but has made a whopping 28 units/unit wagered averaging a +198 dog play since 2008. Play against favorites using the money line (BALTIMORE) off 2 or more consecutive 'unders', an average defensive team allowing 18 to 23 PPG and is now facing a struggling defensive team allowing 23 to 27 PPG. This system clearly reflects the parity of the NFL that on any given Sunday any upset can happen. Baltimore has a decent ground game and may get Ray Rice back in the lineup. Whether he plays or not, the SIm projects that the Ravens will get between 4.0 and 4.5 YPC in this game. In past games, Buffalo is an amazing 15-2 against the money line (+13.0 Units) in home games when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt since 1992. Take the Buffalo Bills.
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09-28-13 | Texas A&M v. Arkansas +14.5 | Top | 45-33 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
10* graded play on Arkansas as they take on Texas A&M in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Arkansas will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. Arkansas has a very strong and improving ground attack. They rank 8th running 69% running plays, 47th averaging 4.6 YPC, 18th averaging 47 rushing attempts per game, and 29th averaging 217 rushing yards per game. I strongly believe that A&M is very vulnerable to the ground game and will be forced to bring 8 men into the box to try and stop this attack. This will set up man coverage on the perimeter and offer play action as a big gain play. A&M ranks 119th allowing 6.0 YPC and 99th allowing 211 rushing yards per game. Arkansas is a solid 1-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games facing excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game since 1992. A&M is just 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road games after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. SIM shows a very high probability that Arkansas will score 28 or more points. In past games, A&M is just 3-10 ATS the past three seasons and 20-65 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points. Take Arkansas.
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09-28-13 | LSU v. Georgia -3 | Top | 41-44 | Push | 0 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
10* graded play on Georgia as they host LSU in a huge SEC showdown set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by 5 or more points. Georgia is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after outgaining previous opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Turnovers ebb and flow over the course of a season. Every year teams who have enjoyed early season turnover advantages will lose the turnover battle and fail to cover and win games. This has been the case at every level of CFB and Miles is just 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers as the coach of LSU. This is not to predict that LSU will be turnover prone, but rather there is a significant probability that Georgia will win the turnover battle or that turnovers will not be a factor. That situation clearly favors and supports Georgia. SIM shows that Georgia will score between 35 and 41 points. In past games, Georgia is 4-1 ATS the past three seasons and 23-4 ATS since 1992 when they have scored between 35 and 41 points. LSU is just 1-14 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed this range of points. Take Georgia.
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09-28-13 | South Carolina v. Central Florida +6.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Central Florida as they host South Carolina in CFB action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UCF will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Both teams are coming off a BYE week so there is no advantage with rest for either team. However, I do believe the extra time UCF has had for preparation is a huge factor. Arguably this is one of the biggest games for the UCF program and by winning this game can take a big step forward in recruiting for next season and beyond. Here are some game situations supporting the play on UCF. They are a solid 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992. O'Leary is a great coach and will undoubtedly have his team completely ready for a big effort today. He is also 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a home underdog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992. A pivotal number in CFB has always been 28 points. The SIM shows a high probability that UCF will score 28 or more points in this game. In past games, they are 3-0 ATS this season, 14-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 60-22 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points. By contrast, SC is just 1-6 ATS the past three seasons and 18-61 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 points in a game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?37-7 mark using the ML and has made 28 units per unit wagered since 2002. Play on a home team using the money line (UCF) with a good scoring defense allowing 17 or less points/game and after a win by 3 or less points. Take UCF.
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09-27-13 | Middle Tennessee State v. BYU -23.5 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
10* graded play on BYU as they host Middle Tennessee State in CFB action set to kick at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BYU will win this game by 27 or more points. With the big line, this portends to a complete physical mismatch on both sides of the ball. It is true, that BYU is in the sandwich game between Utah State and Utah, but that will have little impact on their focus to play extremely well tonight. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?26-5 ATS mark for 84% winners since 1992. Play against road underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points (MIDDLE TENN ST) with an opportunistic defense forcing 2.5 or more turnovers/game and after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Turnovers run in ebbs and flows and many times after a two+ game streak of enjoying the To edge, these teams will then be subject to a negative turnover position. Such is the game of football at any level. Moreover, this is a HUGE stretch in heightened competitive levels for MTS. They have played opponents vastly weaker than what they will experience tonight from BYU and they are on the road. The speed and athleticism that BYU brings to this game cannot be matched even remotely in MTS practices. SIm projects that BY will allow 14 or fewer points, will score more than 28 points, and will outgain MT by at least 200 offensive yards. In past games, BYU is 8-4 ATS the past three seasons and 57-16 ATS since 1992 when they allow 14 or fewer points. They are 11-3 ATS the past three years and 88-50 ATS since 1992 when the have scored 28+ points in a game. They are 8-2 ATS past 3 seasons and 41-10 ATS since 1992 when they have outgained an opponent by 200+ yards. MTS is 0-4 ATS the past three seasons and 4-16 ATS since 1992 when they have been outgained by 200+ yards. Take BYU.
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09-26-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. St. Louis Rams +3.5 | Top | 35-11 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
10* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they take on the SF 49ers in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Rams will lose this game by three or fewer points and has a solid shot an upset win tonight that would send the 49ers season into near chaos. Kaepernick is not a progression passer right now. His develop is still on a huge learning curve and he will overcome this in the second half of the season. He takes the snap and looks down one receiver and if covered he pulls out of the pocket far too soon. His quick decision making to abandon the pass play and get to his hot reads makes it very difficult for the OL to provide effective protection for him. The Rams defense is pretty darn good right now and I do believe they will focus on stopping the run and force Kaepernick to make plays with his arm. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?55-25 mark for 69% winners since 1983. Play on dogs or pick (ST LOUIS) -after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after a loss by 10 or more points. Here is a ML system that has gone 23-5 for 82% winners and has made 22 units/unit wagered since 2002. Play against any team using the money line (SAN FRANCISCO) -that is a struggling offensive team scoring between 14 and 18 PPG and is now facing a struggling defensive team allowing >=27 PPG and after a loss by 14 or more points. Even though the Rams defense has given up points, they match up well against the 49ers, who rank 29th in the NFL averaging just 14.9 PPG. I like the Rams.
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09-26-13 | Iowa State +2.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 57 h 13 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Iowa State as they take on Tulsa in CFB action set to start at 7:30 PM ET and will be televised by Fox Sports 1. The simulator shows a high probability that Iowa State will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?24-5 mark for 83% winners since 2008. This system has averaged a +110 dog play and is also a very nice 14-3 over the past three seasons using the ML. Play on road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (IOWA ST) with 4 or fewer defensive starters returning. Simple to follow and very profitable. Here is a second system that has gone 23-6 for 79% winners since 2002 and has gone a perfect 6-0 making 6.7 units/unit wagered over the past five seasons. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (TULSA) after being outgained by 225 or more total yards in their previous game and is now matched in game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning. Tulsa returns just three starters on defense and this is the glaring advantage that I believe Iowa State will enjoy in this game. Iowa State QB Sam Richardson is nursing an ankle injury, but is listed as probable for this tilt. The Iowa State offense ranks 50th in the nation averaging 251 passing yards per game. Through 2 games, 12 different players have got balls with Richardson connecting on 44-of-71 pass attempts for 62% completions and a solid 139 QB rating. I certainly see the Iowa State offense being significantly better than Tulsa's offense and I believe the Iowa State defense is better as well. So, I get the better offense and the better defense and a DOG. Tulsa QB Cody Green is just 55-of-106 for 610 passing yards and a 105.8 QB rating. He is averaging just 5.76 YPP and has thrown 3 TD with 2 interceptions in three games. Take Iowa State.
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09-23-13 | Oakland Raiders v. Denver Broncos UNDER 50 | Top | 21-37 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
10* graded play 'UNDER' the posted total in the AFC West showdown between the Denver Broncos and the Oakland Raiders set to start at 8:40 PM ET and will be televised on Monday Night Football. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 47 points will be scored in this game. After studying the matchups and watching the 'coaches films' provided by NFL, there is no doubt in my mind this is going to be a far more conservative game than expected. Manning has gotten off to one of the greatest starts in NFL history for a QB, but there is no reason for the offensive scheme to benefit a continued assault on the record books. Instead, Denver's scheme tonight will be more of balanced attack using more short slant, 'in', and 'out' routes. These are essentially running plays designed for gains after the catch. The Raiders are off to a 1-1 start and although I don't see them having a solid shot at defeating the Broncos, I do see their defensive unit matchup up well against Denver's offense. Denver will be able to use play action of course, which Manning has perfected. The Raiders defense though will mitigate the long route exposure and force underneath passes. The Raiders offense struggles to say the least and Denver can play a base defensive scheme without being forced to blitz all that often. The Raiders have the personnel to do well enough between the 20's, but then struggle mightily in the red zone when Denver would tighten up defensive assignments. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?31-9 ATS 'UNDER' mark for 78% winners since 2008. Play 'under' with any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (OAKLAND) and had a terrible passing defense from last season that allowed a completion percentage of 64% or worse. Take the 'UNDER'
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09-22-13 | Atlanta Falcons v. Miami Dolphins -2 | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they host the Atlanta Falcons in NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will win this game by four or more points. Atlanta is banged up both sides of the ball and will have numerous second and third players on the depth chart in starting roles today. This is always a difficult situation for any NFL team. Adding this many new players into starting roles makes communication and chemistry very erratic and inconsistent. Moreover, the line has been going up over the last few days, yet the percentage of bets being made is clearly on Atlanta. This reflects a very strong large amount of small bettors taking Atlanta and the large, so-called 'smart-money', is on Miami. Normally, I look for 70% or higher extremes in betting imbalances as another tool. All of my research, fundamentals, technical matchups, and game situations serve only to reinforce the SIM graded opportunity. Miami is projected to score between 22 and 28 points. In past games, Miami is 2-0 ATS this season, 6-1 ATS the past three season, and 61-28 ATS since 1992 when scoring within this projected range. Take the Dolphins and lay the points.
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09-22-13 | Cleveland Browns +7 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the Minnesota Vikings in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a solid shot at winning the game. I like adding a 1* play using the money line to augment the 10* play using the line. One of these teams will be 0-3 and essentially playing for pride. The Browns made a shocking trade dealing RB Richardson to the Colts for next year
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09-22-13 | NY Giants v. Carolina Panthers +2 | Top | 0-38 | Win | 100 | 3 h 29 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they host the NY Giants in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will win this game by three or more points. This line opened much tighter than I had anticipated and the public is just all over the Giants. Whenever I get a pubic reading of 70% or higher, it is certainly a red flag for the team being backed. The SIM is the dominant reason we are making ANY play, but betting consensus can reinforce that grading when we are against the 'public'. I do think far too much weight has been given to betting consensus and smart money analysis over the past few seasons. I only want to point out that when levels of irrational exuberance are reached it is a supporting factor. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?44-16 ATS mark for 73% winners since 2008. Play against road teams using the money line (NY GIANTS) and is a terrible defense from last season that allowed 360 or more total yards/game. Here is a second system that has gone 44-22 ATS for 67% winners since 2002. Play against any team using the money line (NY GIANTS) after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after a loss by 3 or less points. I just don't see how the Giants defense is going to hold up against the Panthers ground attack. The SI shows a high probability that Carolina will have 150 or more rushing yards. In past games, the Giants, are just 3-5 ATS the past three seasons and 21-52 ATS since 1992 when allowing 150 or more rushing yards. This type of projection is applicable to nearly all NFL teams. In this league is very difficult to win when getting torched on the ground. It then sets up play action, in this case for a very mobile QB, and puts immeasurable pressure on the secondary. Take Carolina.
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09-21-13 | Michigan v. Connecticut +18.5 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
7* graded play on the Connecticut Huskies as they host the Michigan Wolverines in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET, Saturday, September 21. The simulator shows a high probability that UCONN will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?63-29 ATS mark for 69% winners since 1992. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (CONNECTICUT) after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. Experience in CFB is a huge factor in the outcome of games in the first month of the season. The team chemistry, particular on the OL where communication is paramount to the solid execution of the offensive scheme, is a significant advantage for any team. UCONN has gone to a hurry up offense after a very dismal season in 2012. They have returned 8 starters including their QB. T.J. Weist, and are executing the offense at a high level that I believe will cause Michigan fits on defense. SIM shows that UCONN will score between 22 and 28 points in this game. In past games, Michigan is just 1-6 ATS over the past three years and 12-36 ATS since 1992 when allowing this range of scoring. Take UCONN
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09-21-13 | Missouri v. Indiana +2.5 | Top | 45-28 | Loss | -106 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
10* graded play on Indiana as they take on Missouri in College Football action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Indiana Hoosiers will win this game. They are currently installed as 1 1/2 point dogs and I strongly believe this line will push towards pick-em. This normally would be a concern on a Thursday as I am writing this, but the movement has been generated by large 'smart money' wagers. In fact, 64% of all best being made are on Missouri, which would normally send the line higher. This is solid proof that the large bettor is on this game. Remember that the grading by the SIM is the dominant reason why are on any play. The research, game situations, systems, betting flows serve only to reinforce the play. We only have a small 3-game sample size, but Indiana has so far proved to have a very strong passing attack that currently ranks 11th in the nation averaging 7.4 yards-per-play and 10.1 yards-per-pass play. Missouri head coach, Pinkel, is just 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when facing excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/attempt. He is also just 16-26 ATS (-12.6 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. Indiana has a well-balanced offensive attack that is going to be very tough for Missouri to contain. Here is a supporting system using the money line that has gone 23-5 for 82% winners and has made 23 units/unit wagered averaging a +120 DOG play since 2008. Play on a home team using the money line (INDIANA) that is an excellent offensive team gaining >=440 YPG and is now facing a team with an average defense allowing between 330 to 390 YPG and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in two consecutive games. Take the Indiana Hoosiers.
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09-21-13 | Auburn +17 v. LSU | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
7* graded play on Auburn as they take on LSU in SEC Conference action set to start at 7:45 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will lose this game by fewer than 16 points. Auburn and LSU are both off to 3-0 starts with Auburn having played a vastly more difficult schedule. LSU is loaded with talent, but they have yet to play a 'real' competitor. They have beaten TCU, UAB, and Kent State. On eof my favorite plays is when a DOG, who has been seasoned by average to tough opponents is playing an elite team that has yet to play any meaningful games. The Speed of a competitive game cannot be replicated in practice and LSU has had essentially three scrimmages to date. Auburn has played Washington State Arkansas State and Mississippi State. Not Yop-10 opponents, but much more respected football programs than LSU's resume. SIM shows that Auburn will score at least 28 points. LS is just 11-50 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28+ points in a game. Auburn is also projected to gain average of 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. LSU is just 1-3 ATS the past three seasons and 10-22 ATS since 1992 in games where they allowed this range. Miles is just 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after outgaining opponents by 100 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games as the coach of LSU. I truly believe this game could be very close, so if there is a money line available I would recommend taking a stab in the dark and placing only a 1* amount to augment the 7* play. Take Auburn
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09-21-13 | Purdue v. Wisconsin UNDER 49 | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
7* graded play 'UNDER' the posted total in the Big Ten matchup between Purdue and Wisconsin set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 47 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?73-35 'under' mark for a solid 68% winners since 1992. Play 'Under' with any team against the total (WISCONSIN) that is a top caliber team posting a >=+14 PPG differential and now facing a struggling team posting a <=-10 PPG differential and after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. Wisconsin does have a very strong defense and the SIM shows that Purdue will gain between 300 and 350 points. In past games, Purdue is 3-0 'under' over the past three seasons and 23-4 'under' since 1992 when they have gained 300 to 350 yards. Wisconsin ranks 64tjh in the nation allowing 232 passing yards per game and 22nd allowing 53% pass completions. Purdue is a solid 16-6 UNDER (+9.4 Units) when facing solid passing defenses allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/attempt since 1992. Take the 'UNDER'
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09-21-13 | North Carolina +7 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
10* graded play on the North Carolina as they take on Georgia Tech in ACC action set to start at 12:00 Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UNC will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has an excellent shot at getting a very important road conference win. I like playing this as a 10* getting the points and then add no more than a 2.5* amount using the money line. You may remember that these two programs met last year and engaged in the highest scoring game in ACC history. Georgia Tech won that game 68-50 and there is a bit of revenge for UNC entering this tilt. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?28-33 record for 46% winners and has made 51 units/unit wagered averaging a +300 DOG play since 1992. Play on a road team using the money line (N CAROLINA) that is an average offensive team scoring between 21 to 28 PPG and is now facing an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. I love these types of systems, but remember they only serve to reinforce the grading produced by the SIM. These systems are analogous to the very popular Black Jack casino game. However, the big difference is that in a casino you essentially get 1:1 odds save the 3:2 Black Jack payout. However, in this system you are getting paid an average of +300 per 'hand' played. So, based on this system, playing Black jack would have netted a loss of $500 playing $100 per hand. The system, though made you a big time winner producing a profit of $5100.00. More importantly, it underscores one of the most important handicapping tools I will always use and have learned over my 19 years of handicapping. DOGS must be identified as winners ATS. The betting flows show that more than 73% of all best placed are on Georgia Tech and anything above 70% shows an irrational exuberance by the public in thinking that Georgia Tech will easily win this game. My research clearly points the other way and I strongly believe UNC will win ATS. Best of Luck!
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09-19-13 | Kansas City Chiefs +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 33 h 42 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Kansas City Chiefs as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that KC will win this game. I like adding a 2* amount getting at least +130 using the money line for this 10* graded play. The Eagles defense has been torched the past two games. If not for some bad breaks in the red zone, the Chargers would have had arguably 10 more points and the game would not have ever been close. Although a small sample size, the Eagles defense ranks 28th allowing 30.0 PPG, 30th allowing 461 YPG, 28th allowing 6.2 YPP, 25th allowing 48% third-down conversions, and 25th allowing 69% pass completions. KC offense ranks 9th getting 3.0 TD's per game, 7th gaining 4.5 yards-per-rush, and are disciplined ranking second with 32.5 penalty yards per game. The high powered quick flowing Eagle offense has been a crippling factor for the defense, who has to play 56.36% of the game time. Eagles are dead last in TOP in the NFL. CB Carey Williams has been torched and the secondary is a bit banged up with Fletcher and Boykin (nickel back) listed as probable with minor nicks. The Eagles play a base 3-4 defensive scheme that has many holes and weaknesses entering this game. Reid is a great game planner and will have a game plan that will constantly keep the Eagles defense off balance and will use play action pass a ton to exploit blitzes and man coverage situations. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?35-10 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2002. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KANSAS CITY) after 2 consecutive game where they committed no turnovers. 55% of these winning plays covered by at least 7 points and under scores why I believe KC will win this game. SIM shows a high probability that KC will gain between 125 and 150 rushing yards. KC is a rock solid 40-15 against the money line (+24.6 Units) when they rush for 125 to 150 yards since 1992. Take Kansas City.
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09-19-13 | Clemson v. North Carolina State +14 | Top | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 54 h 51 m | Show |
10* graded play on North Carolina State as they take on Clemson in ACC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that NC State will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Here are some game situations supporting NC State. Wolfpack are 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) off 2 or more consecutive 'unders' since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?40-14 ATS mark for 74% winners making 25 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against road favorites (CLEMSON) that are good offensive teams gaining between 5.6 to 6.2 YPP and is now facing a team with an average defense allowing 4.8 to 5.6 YPP and after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. Here is a second style that has gone 70-30 ATS for 70% winners since 1992. Play on a home team (NC STATE) that are off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less with the game taking place in the first month of the season. This system has gone 14-4 AYS over the past three seasons. Both teams have not played since September 7. Clemson defeated Georgia in Week 1 and then played a scrimmage against South Carolina State. The NC State defense has the ability to contain the Clemson ground game. They key is get the Tigers into second-and-long and third-and-long situations by getting a stop on first down. Another factor is that better than 75% of the bets being made have been on the Tigers. Whenever I get a reading of 70% or higher it is a red flag for the team being bet. Levels at 70% and above show an increasing irrational exuberance in betting any team, especially a ranked one like Clemson. Take North Carolina State
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09-16-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Cincinnati Bengals as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in AFC North action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bengals will win this game by 8 or more points. SIM shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will not gain more than 100 rushing yards. In past games, the Bengals are 7-0 ATS when they have allowed between 75 and 100 rushing yards in games played over the past three seasons. The biggest mismatch in this game is in the trenches where the Bengal defensive front should be able to control the Steeler OL completely. Kelvin Beachum is making his first start at Center for the Steelers replace the pro bowler Maurkice Pouncey. The Bengals defensive line that averaged 3.21 sacks per game is back and better than ever before. QB Roethlisberger has never been mobile and he will be under constant pressure in this game. The Bengals lost their starting left tackle, but new starter Anthony Collins held Chicago's all-world defensive end Julius Peppers in check. A.J. Green has averaged 62 receiving yards per game when playing the Steelers. His career average is a strong 80.3 per game and he is arguably one of the best WR in the AFC right now. The veteran Ike Taylor will be responsible for shadowing him and it may be a very long night for him as I don
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