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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-09-23 | Panthers +3.5 v. Bears | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears Betting on any team that is facing a foe that has won 25% or fewer of their games, is coming off two consecutive road losses, and with the game taking place from Week 5 on out to the end of the season has earned a highly profitable 51-33-6 ATS mark for 61% winning bets since 2010. If our team is the underdog in this matchup, their record soars to 12-12 SU and 16-6-2 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2010. If the total has been less than 40 points, our team has gone an impressive 7-2-1 ATS for 78% winning bets since 2010. Betting on road dogs between 3.5 and 10 points that are allowing 28 or more PPG have gone 82-37-4 ATS for 69% winning bets since 2015. If our game has a total of 42.5 or fewer points, our road dogs have gone a near-perfect 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets since 2015 and is 8-0 ATS since 2016.
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11-09-23 | Southern Miss v. UL-Lafayette -9.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
Southern Mississippi vs LA Lafayette The Cajuns are averaging 197 rushing yards per game ranking 14th nationally and will be facing a defense that ranks 114th nationally allowing 186 RYPG. So, the models are projecting that the Cajuns will wear down the SMU defensive front and gain over 200 RY. The models also project that the Cajuns will gain 450 or more total yards and commit no more than single turnover. In past games, the Cajuns are 54-10 SU and 47-15-1 ATS for 76% winning bets when scoring 31 or more points and gaining 450 or more total yards. In addition, if they committed no more than a single turnover, they have gone 34-5 SU and 32-7 ATS for 82% winning bets. |
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11-07-23 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan -3 | Top | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
Central Michigan vs Western Michigan 7:00 PM EST, ESPNU 8-Unit best bet on Western Michigan Broncos minus the -3 points. From the predictive models, we are expecting WMU to score 31 or more points, The market has a 30 to 27 WMU home win given the 57.5 point total and WMU favored by three points, In past games in which WMU scored 31 points and had the same or fewer turnovers has led them to an outstanding 16-1 SU and 14-2-1 ATS for 88% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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11-06-23 | Chargers -3.5 v. Jets | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 33 h 27 m | Show |
Chargers vs Jets 5-Unit Best Bet on the Under | No Parlay – not worth the added risk. It is a fact that the 10-UNIT MAX Bets have done very well in all sports for more than four years of betting opportunities hitting 68.8% winning tickets. Do not make the mistake that these plays anything more than that you can also look at them as the fact they lost 31% of the time. No one including me, knows if this play is going to win or lose, but over the course of a season or calendar year it is likely that we will generate profits by betting each one as they arise in a disciplined manner. With that said, I am offering a special subscription for just $300 to get the remaining 8-weeks of the calendar year all access to every NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL 10-Unit best bet, which is more than 50% of what you would pay.  I like betting Under in game during the first half of action at 42.5 or more points. So, consider betting 3.5 units preflop and then took to add 1.5 units at 42.5 points. Also, consider betting 7-Units on the Chargers preflop and then look to add the remaining 3-units at pick-em during the first half of action. Last Sunday, the Jets and Giants played one of the ineptest games since at least 2000. The Giants managed to pass for negative yardage, which marks only the 7th time that any NFL team passed for negative yardage in a game since 1998. The last time any NFL passed for -9 or fewer yards was the Browns, who lost 48-0 to the Jacksonville Jaguars December 3, 2000. So, home teams coming off a game in which they had 10 or more points, their previous opponent had 10 or more punts and with the current game total between 31 and 41 points has seen the Under go 13-4-1 for 77% winning bets. There have been 85 games among the 8,754 games played or 1.0% where the teams combined for more punts than points scored since 1989. Teams that won a game in which there were more punts than points scored by both teams and now playing at home have gone 24-10-2 Under the total for 71% winning bets since 1989. Justin Herbert looked at his best since suffering the grotesque injury to his fingers on his non-throwing hand. Granted the Bears were without their two starting safeties, but still Herbert was very accurate with all his passes. Jets defense has been great this season, but they have not been able to get off the field allowing 40% third down conversions. The Chargers are excellent in third down situations converting 41% of them on the season. The jets also are getting a sack on 6.94% of the plays ranking just 20th in the league. The Chargers OL is expected to protect Herbert well knowing the rank 7th in the league allowing a sack on just 5.6% of their passes. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers do get pressure on the QB more time than not and rank 12th with 7.90 sack percentage. The Jets OL has not been good in large part to injuries and allow a sack on close to 10% of their plays ranking 27th in the league. Chargers are 7-0 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive Under results in games played over the past three seasons. From the predictive model, there is a high probability that the Chargers will hold the Jets to fewer than 21 points and force at least two turnovers. The Chargers are 21-5 SU and 19-6-1 ATS for 76% winning bets when they allowed 21 or fewer points and 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS for 82% winning bets when they have allowed 21 or fewer points and forced two or more turnovers in games played over the past five seasons. The Jets are 1-20 SU and 2-18-1 ATS for just 10% winning tickets when scoring 21 or fewer points and committing two or more turnovers in games played over the past five seasons. The Jets are 7-41 SU and 10-37-1 ATS for 21% winning tickets when scoring 21 or fewer points in games played over the past 5 seasons. |
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11-05-23 | Cowboys +3 v. Eagles | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Betting on winning record road teams from Week 8 on out that are facing a host that coming off a divisional road win and has won 75% or more of their games on the season has earned an outstanding 30-12 ATS record for 71.4% winning bets since 2010. Betting on road teams using the money line that is coming off a home win by 21 or more points from Week 6 on out has earned a highly profitable 40-22 ATS record over the past five seasons. If our team is priced as a dog, they have gone on to a highly profitable 15-12 SU and 19-8 ATS record good for 70.3% winning bets over the past five seasons. The clincher is if our road warrior is facing a divisional foe, they have gone on to a 7-3 SU record and 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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11-05-23 | Bears +9.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints 1:00 PM EST, This is a highly contrarian bet that may make no sense at all, but let’s get into the numbers why the Bears are a terrific betting opportunity. Betting on road dogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points and that have allowed less than 100 rushing yards in each of their last three games has produced a 14-17 SU record and a jaw-dropping 25-6 ATS for 81% winning bets since 2018. If a road dog of 7 or more points their record has been 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2018. Before the NFL season began, the Circa puts out lines and totals for every game of the NFL season. This game opened with the Bears a 2.5-point dog and now has shot up 7 points to a current 9.5-point price. When the line change has moved 7 or more points from the opening, and the game is taking place from Week 8 on out, the ATS record of betting on these unwanted teams is a solid 65% ATS. Betting on dogs that are facing a team that has gained 375 or more total yards in each of their last three games and are outgaining their foes by a 50 or more YPG on the season has gone 27-9-2 ATS for 75% over the past five seasons. |
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11-04-23 | Kansas v. Iowa State -3 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Kansas vs Iowa State Betting on home teams that are coming off a double-digit road win and hosting a team coming off an upset win over a conference rival priced as 6 or more-point underdogs has earned a 109-20 SU record good for 85% wins and 86-42-1 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets over the past 43 seasons (since 1980). If that foe is ranked in the Top-25, the home team has gone 7-1 ATS and SU. |
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11-04-23 | California v. Oregon -24.5 | Top | 19-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
California vs Oregon Bet on favorites between 21.5 and 31.5 points that are averaging 200 or more rushing yards per game and whose defense has held their previous three opponents to 125 or fewer rushing yards in each game has produced a highly profitable 63-5 SU record and 46-18-4 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets since 2010. This system has had 18 consecutive seasons of profitability. At No.6 Oregon has all the motivation to play well and four all four quarters even if they do run the score up on California. The CFP committee served notice that margin of victory over conference foes does matter when they selected Ohio State as No. 1 this past week. Oregon is 14-4 ATS as a favorite over the past two seasons. Cal is just 4-14 ATS home a home loss, but did cover the spread. They lost 50-49 to USC last week. Oregon head coach Lanning is 9-2 ATS after scoring 31 or more points in each of their last three games. Betting on favorites between 21.5 and 31.5 points that have scored 31 or more points in each of their two previous games and has a great defense that is allowing an average 16 PPG on the season and is facing a foe that has a bad defense allowing 28 to 34 PPG has produced a 61-3 SU record and 41-23 ATS mark good for 64% winning bets since 1992. If our favorite is hosting the game, their record has been 32-1 SU and 23-10 ATS for 70% winning bets since 1992. The clincher here is if our home favorite has scored 31 or more points in three straight games, the record soars to 35-1 SU and 28-8 ATS for 78% winning bets regardless of game site. Â The current market implies a 42-18 Oregon win and the predictive model shows a high probability that Oregon is going to score at least 35 points in this contest. Even when they score 28 or more points they have earned a 28-15-1 ASTS mark for 65% winners; 24-9 ATS mark when scoring 35 or more points; 14-3 ATS when scoring 42 or more points in games played over the past five seasons. When at home and scoring 42 or more points they are 8-2 ATS for 80%. |
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11-04-23 | Missouri v. Georgia UNDER 56 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
No. 12 Missouri vs No. 2 Georgia Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA Betting the Under in game with a total of 55 or more points featuring ranked teams and the home team is favored by double-digits has produced a 29-17-2 Under record good for 63% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our home team is ranked in the Top-10, the Under has gone 25-9-1 for 73% winning bets. If that home team is ranked in the Top-3, the Under has gone 14-5-1 for 74% winners. Betting the Under in games with a total between 49.5 and 56 points that has one team, Missouri, allowing 330 to 390 yards per game and is coming off a game in which they outgained that foe by 125 or more yards, and is now facing a conference foe that has an elite defense allowing 280 or fewer yards per game has produced a 27-14-3 Under record good for 66% winning bets. |
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11-04-23 | Florida State -21.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 24-7 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Florida State vs Pittsburgh No. 4 Florida State (8-0, 6-0 ACC) will travel to Pittsburgh (2-6, 1-3 ACC) to take on their fellow ACC foe Panthers set to start at 3:30 PM and will be televised by ESPN. FSU elected to start the season having to face two powerhouse ranked teams starting with the LSU Tigers in Week 1 and then their ACC rival Clemson Tigers in Week 4 and won them both on the road. Having played an won these games against ranked opponents has made FSU a much better team and one that I see going undefeated and being voted into the College Football Playoffs. Following this game, FSU will host their ACC and state rival Miami Hurricanes next Saturday, then play their home finale against Northern Alabama, and then the season finale at Gainesville to face the SEC Florida Gators. They will be favored in every game and I see them winning by double-digits against Miami and Florida. FSU ranks 4th nationally averaging 41.5 PPG and rank 18th allowing 18.3 PPG having played a difficult schedule. Pittsburgh ranks 116th averaging 19.1 PPG and ranks 101st allowing 31.9 PPG. So, FSU is outscoring their foes by 23.2 PPG while Pittsburgh is getting outscored by an average of 12.8 PPG. Simply stated, this is a monumental mismatch that warrants a line at least seven more points higher than the current price of 21.5 points. FSU quarterback Jordan Travis is having a sensational season throwing for 2,109 yards with 18 touchdowns, just two interceptions and earning an 156 rating. Against the six conference foes he has faced he has completed 65% of his passes for 1,592 yards with 12 touchdowns and earning a 154 rating. Their formidable ground attack is led by Trey Benson, who has gained 544 rushing yards on 85 carries including seven scores. He accounts for only 41% of the 1,342 rushing yards gained on the season and reflects their strong depth at the running back position. FSU has six receivers, who have caught 13 or more passes this season and are led by Keon Coleman with 38 catches, 538 receiving yards and nine scores. For the season, there have been 10 different receivers, who have accounted for the 21 receiving touchdowns. So, the Pittsburgh defense is not going to be capable of stopping this offense and I see them scoring at least 41 points in this game. A Highly Profitable Situation to Bet FSU FSU is supported by a terrific situation that has produced a 46-1 SU record for 98% wins and has earned a 33-14 ATS record good for 70.2% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are: ·      Bet on road teams that have won more than 75% of their games. ·      Is favored by 19.5 or more-points. ·      Our team has covered the spread in at least five of their last 7 games. ·      Our team is facing a losing record host |
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11-02-23 | Titans v. Steelers OVER 37 | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Tennessee Titans vs Pittsburgh Steelers Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA 8-Unit Best Bet on the OVER, currently at 37 points. I like betting this one with 5-Units on the OVER preflop, then 1.5-units each at 33.5 and 31.5 points if the pace of the game is quite slow over the first half of action. The worst thing that happens is that we do get those price levels, but that also implies that the OVER preflop bet is more than likely winning and looking good. Betting on any team with a total between 35.5 and 42 points, with one of the teams (Steelers) coming off four or more consecutive Under results, and is getting outscored by 4.5 or more points per game on the season has earned a solid 63-34 record good for 65% winning bets since 1989. If that team is playing at home, the Over has gone a highly profitable 38-13 for 74.5% winning bets. Here is a subset of that system that has gone 13-1 Over for 93% winning bets. Bet the over in a game where the home team is on a five or more game Under streak, has been outscored by 4 or more PPG and with a game total between 35.5 and 40 points. |
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11-01-23 | Ball State v. Bowling Green OVER 39.5 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
Ball State vs Bowling Green 8-Unit best bet on the Over, currently priced at 40 points. Betting the Over between 35.5 and 42 points in a game from week 7 on that involved two struggling offensive teams that are gaining between 280 and 330 YPG has produced a 70-35 Over record good for 70% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. From the predictive model, we learn that the OVER has gone 19-7 for 73% winners when BGU has passed for 270 or more yards and scored 25 or more points in home games. In road games in which they allowed 25 or more points and 270 or more passing yards; Ball State has seen the Over go 23-10 for 70% winning bets. |
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10-29-23 | Bears +9.5 v. Chargers | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs LA Chargers 8:20 PM 10-Unit best bet on the Chicago Bears plus the nine points and consider adding a sprinkle on the money line during the first half if the spread gets to 11 or more points. Â Betting road underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points that held each of their last three foes to less than 100 rushing yards have gone 26-5 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2018. If they are dogs priced between 6.5 and 10 points has produced an even better 11-2 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets since 2018. Betting against home favorites between 3.5 and 10 points that are coming off a road loss and in a matchup of teams that have lost 60% or more of their games on the season has earned a solid 46-25 ATS mark for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If both teams have lost between 60 and 75% of their game son the season, these dogs soar to a highly profitable 23-6 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Betting on road dogs between 3.5 and up to and including 10 points that are allowing a pass completion percentage of 60% and higher and coming off a solid defensive game in which they allowed 5.5 or fewer yards per pass have earned an outstanding 49-27-2 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the past five seasons. If not a conference matchup, these dogs have gone 16-6 ATS for 73% winning bets. Chargers are just 5-15-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss to a divisional foe; 13-28 ATS in home games following a terrible game in which their defense allowed 300 or more passing yards. From the predictive models we are looking for the Bears to win the turnover battle and gain at least 135 rushing yards in this game. In past games in which they met or exceeded these projections has led them to an outstanding 14-4 SU and 14-4 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets. |
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10-29-23 | Browns v. Seahawks -4 | Top | 20-24 | Push | 0 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
Seahawks vs Browns 1:00 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet on the Seahawks minus the points, currently priced as a 4-point favorite  Betting on a home favorite in a non-conference matchup that is coming off a double-digit win over a divisional foe has earned a highly profitable 39-15-1 ATS record good for 72% winning bets since 2009. |
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10-29-23 | Texans -3.5 v. Panthers | Top | 13-15 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 42 m | Show |
Houston Texans vs Carolina Panthers 1:00 PM, Week 8 So, the Texans find themselves at 3-3 for the season and for the first time in many seasons have realistic expectations to make the postseason. However, the Jaguars lead the AFC South Division at 5-2 and the Texans must keep pace and stay ahead of both Colts abnd Titans, who are both at 3-4 in the division race. The Texans QB, CJ Stroud, I shaving a solid season completing 127 of 213 passes for 1660 yards, nine TDs and just one interception. Overall, he has attained a 57.1 QBR for the season. In road games he has done much better completing 62% of his 109 passes for 771 yards, three TDs and one interception. The Texans are coming off the BYE and have had two weeks to focus and prepare for this pivotal game. Moreover, road favorites coming off a BYE week and playing a winless team are 10-1 ATS and 11-0 SU. So, I like betting 80% of the 8-Unit amount preflop and then look to get the remaining 20% amount bet if the Panthers score first or retake the lead during the first half of action. If neither occurs, but the halftime line for 20% as long as it is not above a 6.5-point favorite. Â The Colts have seen 26 lead changes in their games this season, which is tops in the NFL. The Panthers have experienced 14 lead changes, so the probability that the Texans may trail at some point during the first half is quite high. Â Â |
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10-29-23 | Jets -3 v. Giants | Top | 13-10 | Push | 0 | 2 h 42 m | Show |
New York Jets vs NY Giants 1:00 PM MetLife Stadium 8-Unit Best Bet on the Over the total currently priced at 35 points. Betting on the Over in a game lined between 35 and 42 points with one of the team sin the matchup (Giants) getting outscored by 4 or more PPG and coming off four or more Under results has gone 87-42-2 Over for 62% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. Â |
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10-29-23 | Jaguars v. Steelers OVER 40.5 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 41 m | Show |
Pittsburgh vs Jacksonville 1:00 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total of 40.5 points Betting the Over in a game with a total between 37.5 and 42 points in which one of the teams is getting outscored by 4 or more points per game and is on a 4 or more Under streak has gone 38-21 for 64.4% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If that team (Pittsburgh) is playing at home, then the Over has gone 25-10 for 71.4% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. |
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10-29-23 | Eagles v. Commanders UNDER 43 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 41 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs Washington 1:00 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet Under the posted total of 43.5 points Philadelphia goes for it on fourth down and short yardage a lot and last week they Team that are coming off a game in which they covered 3 or more fourth down attempts and now on the road have seen the Under go 42-17-2 for 71% winning bets since 2001.  |
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10-29-23 | Vikings v. Packers +1.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 39 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Green Bay 1:00 PM 8-Unit best bet on the Packers plus the 1.5 points or if it is less than that consider the money line.  Betting on teams that have covered the spread in three consecutive games and facing a foe that has covered the spread in their last two games and with the team (Green Bay) being priced between the 3’s has gone 30-12-3 for 71.4% winning bets since 2015. If in a divisional matchup, our teams have gone 14-3-3 ATS for 82% winning bets since 2015. |
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10-28-23 | Oregon State v. Arizona +3 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 6 m | Show |
No. 11 Oregon State vs Arizona 10-Unit best Bet on the Wildcats plus the 3 points Betting on non-ranked home underdogs bet3een pick and 4.5 points that are facing a foe that is ranked and coming off a win that covered the spread by 3.5 to 10 points has produced a 27-20 SU record and 31-16 ATS mark for 66% winning bets sine 1993. Betting on home underdogs that are taking on a foe that allowed 5.5 or more RYPA in each of their last two games has gone 31-44 SU and 47-27-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If facing a conference foe these home dogs have gone 29-35 SU and 43-20-1 ATS for 68% winning bets. If home team is priced as a 5.5 or fewer-point dog, they have gone 17-17 SU and 23-10-1 ATS for 70% winning bets. Oregon State ranks 14th in scoring offense averaging 35.3 PPG and has the best red zone scoring offense in the nation. They produce scoring drives with their solid rushing attack ranking 28th gaining an average of 183 yards per game. However, Arizona has a great defensive front that ranks 19th nationally allowing just 99 YPG. Arizona can bring the heat effectively too in passing downs getting a sack on 9% on all plays run ranking 21st nationally. Plus, they get the job done in preventing multiple first down scoring drives averaging just 45% of the game on the field and ranks 13th best nationally. So, the OSU ground game is not going to have an easy time running the ball in this matchup – not saying they won’t gain over 100 yards, but it will be a struggle for them to do so. Arizona can run the ball and have gained 1159 yards on 227 carries for a solid 5.1 YPRA. Jonah Coleman is the featured back and has gained 433 yards on 65 rushes for a 6.7 yards per carry with 3 TDs. Arizona ranks 8th nationally completing 72% of their passes and rank 37th allowing a sack on just 4.6% of plays run. |
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10-28-23 | North Carolina v. Georgia Tech UNDER 64.5 | Top | 42-46 | Loss | -108 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
North Carolina vs Georgia Tech  8:00 PM – ACCN  Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta
 points The Tarheels are coming off an inexplicably bad loss losing to one-win UVA 31-27 at home. So, the CFP playoff aspirations may be dashed, but they still can have a great season and possibly an ACC Championship. Head Coach Mack Brown will have his troops fully prepared and focused to make sure they do not suffer any hangover form the horrid loss. Great head coaches always focus on the defensive side of the ball following a horrid loss because it is the defensive failure that contributes the most the loss. Betting the UNDER with a road team in a conference matchup that is coming off a horrid loss to a conference foe priced as a 17.5 or more-point favorite and facing a foe that has won 50% or fewer of their games on the season has earned a solid 10-2-1 for 83% winning bets. Betting the Under in a game with a total between 63 and 70.5 points with the road team being a solid offensive team gaining at least 6.3 yards per play and have gained at least 450 total yards in each of their last three games has earned a 62-33-1 UNDER record for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game takes place from week 7 on out to the end of the season the Under has gone 42-21-1 for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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10-28-23 | Tennessee v. Kentucky +3.5 | Top | 33-27 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 32 m | Show |
No. 21 Tennessee vs. Kentucky  Kroger Field, Lexington, KY  7:00 PM | ESPN  8-Unit best bet on the Wildcats plus the points  currently priced at +3.5 points. Betting on dogs between 1.5 and 6 points that are coming off two consecutive horrid double-digit losses to conference foes in weeks 5 through 9 has produced a 32-24 SU record and a highly profitable 38-17-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets since 2015. If our team has not covered the spread in four consecutive games, their record soars to 9-11 SU and 15-4-1 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2015. If our team is playing at home, their record soars to 19-10 SU and 21-7-1 ATS for 75% winning bets. |
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10-28-23 | Arkansas State +2 v. UL-Monroe | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 30 m | Show |
Arkansas State vs. Louisiana-Monroe 5:00 PM EST Week 9 8-Unit Best bet on Arkansas State plus the points Betting on dogs between 1.5 and 6 points that are coming off two consecutive horrid double-digit losses to conference foes in weeks 5 through 9 has produced a 32-24 SU record and a highly profitable 38-17-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets since 2015. If our team has scored 24 or fewer points in total over their past 2 games has improved the results to 11-6 SU and 13-4 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2015. |
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10-26-23 | Bucs +10 v. Bills | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
Tampa Bay vs Buffalo 8-Unit best Bet on the Bucs plus the 9.5 points Betting on road underdogs facing a non-conference foe coming off a road loss in the first half of the season has earned a solid 87-66-7 ATS record goods for 57% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and an 18-10-1 ATS mark for 64% winning bets over the past five seasons. If a matchup of winning record teams, the road team has gone 16-7 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past five seasons. A sprinkle on the money line is worth it as I do see the Bucs being vastly undervalued in this matchup. |
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10-26-23 | Syracuse +3 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
Syracuse vs Virginia Tech Syracuse has been coming up on the radar more so this season than in others and that’s ok no matter if they are 4-3 or 7-0 or even 0-7 as the models present us with opportunities to exploit based on the situations teams find themselves in any matchup. After starting out 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS, the Orange suddenly ran out of fire power on the offensive side of the ball. They scored 14 points in a 31-14 loss to Clemson, then 12 days ago lost to No. 4 ranked FSU 41-3 as failed to cover as 19-point dogs at Tallahassee. In the second to last game, they lost at UNC 40-7 as 9.5-point road dogs. They had five turnovers in the first four games and then turned it over 7 times in the past three games. So, at this point everyone is highly suspect of the Orange and rightfully so based on recency bias alone. V-Tech is not in the same class as UNC, Clemson, and FSU and few teams in the ACC, if any, would have been able to win on the road against those programs in consecutive weeks. The Orange have extra motivation to win the game and get one step closer to earning a bowl game appearance while at 3-4 V-Tech has little hope of getting to six wins knowing they are on the road at Louisville and BC, then a home finale against a solid NC State program and then a possible win at UVA. Betting on road dogs between 2.5 and 10 points that are coming off two consecutive horrid double-digit losses to conference foes and have played UNDER in three of their last four games has produced a 41-50 SU record and a highly profitable 60-28-3 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets since 2015. If our team has not covered the spread in four consecutive games, their record soars to 9-11 SU and 15-4-1 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2015. The base system mentioned first above has had just one losing record season going 2-5 ATS in 2021 over the past 10 seasons. The Orange are 41-23 ATS following a game in which they allowed 6.75 or more YPPL. V-Tech is on an 0-6 ATS streak after having won three of their last 4 games. |
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10-24-23 | Liberty v. Western Kentucky +6 | Top | 42-29 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Liberty vs Western Kentucky Betting on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing a foe that is coming off three consecutive wis over conference foes and has nine or fewer returning starters from last season have gone 52-20-2 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 30 seasons and is 15-3-1 ATS for 83% winners over the past 10 seasons. Betting on home underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points following a game in which they committed no more than a single turnover and facing a foe coming off two consecutive games in which they had a turnover margin of one or better has earned a highly profitable 20-10 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons. Western Kentucky is 21-7 ATS over the past three seasons for 75% winning bets in games that they score 28 or more points and the predictive model projects an 82% probability that they will score 30 or more points. |
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10-23-23 | 49ers v. Vikings UNDER 43.5 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Monday Night Football 8-Unit Best Bet on the Under currently priced at 43.5 points I prefer betting this game with a 5.5-unit amount preflop and then look for a faster than expected start to the game and add 1.5 units at 47.5 points and then the final unit at 49.5 points during the first half of action. San Francisco went on the road with a perfect record to take on the Cleveland Browns and they lost as a favorite. We were on the Browns as many of you know and sprinkled the money line as well. Many times, the first loss of a season by a stellar elite team regroups with a focus on the defensive end, which is the area of the game that gave the dog the chance at the outright upset win. 49ers have the best defense3 in the NFL, and at least in the NFC. The Jets defense held the Eagles offense to just 14 points in their upset win and are the only other team possibly better than the 49ers defensive unit. The 49ers defense ranks second allowing in the NFL allowing 14.5 PPG, third allowing 278 yards per game, second with a 0.235 points allowed per play ratio. 3rd allowing 4.5 YPPL. And second allowing 5.1 yards per pass despite ranking 31st with the second highest opponent pass play percentage. Offensive schemes going up against the 49ers defense focus on the pass game to have any chance at getting the upset win. Teams are averaging the second-lowest average of rushes (20.2 per game) in the league. The Vikings throw the ball the highest amount in the NFL at 69% of all plays run. The 49ers great defense is not because of an overly aggressive scheme. In fact, they rank 19th in the league blitzing on 14% of their defensive plays. The top blitz team in the league is the Vikings with 132 blitzes or 33% of their total defensive plays. The 49ers lead the league with a total of 27 quarterback hits and second to the Eagles (75) with 69 quarterback pressures. Remember the 49ers have played on fewer game than the Eagles. So, the 49ers front four can generate enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks without having to blitz and play a wide array of coverage schemes to create chaos and opponent turnovers. Betting the Under in the MNF game with one of the teams coming off an upset loss has earned an outstanding 20-2-1 UNDER for 91% winning bets over the past five seasons. If they are a road favorite in the current MNF game, the Under has gone 10-2 for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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10-22-23 | Chargers +6 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
Chargers vs Chiefs 4:25 EST Globe Life Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City 8-Unit best bet on the Chiefs Betting on road teams that are facing a team that is outgaining their foes by 1.25 or more passing yards per attempt and coming off a game in which they gained 7 or more yards per pass attempt have gone 72-40-2 ATS for 64% winners last five seasons. If in a divisional matchup, 22-7-2 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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10-22-23 | Steelers v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
Pittsburgh Steelers vs LA Rams 4:05 PM EST, FOX SoFi Stadium 8-Unit best bet on the Rams minus the 3-points Bet on any team that is facing a winning record foe that is coming off an upset home win to a divisional rival 82-48 SU (63%) | 84-39-7 ATS (68%) since 1989 If the foe pressed the QB on |
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10-22-23 | Cardinals +9.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
Arizona vs Seattle 4:05 PM EST FOX 8-UNIT best bet on the Cardinals plus the 8 points and sprinkle on the money line Betting against home favorites coming off a road loss in the first half of the season has earned a highly profitable 66-33-3 for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our team, the Cardinals, are coming off a SU and ATS loss, they soar to a 27-11-2 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. This is obviously a highly contrarian bet. Aside from the sentiment Python apps I run on Twitter to access the betting community’s appetite for specific teams, note that 60% of the remain 1785 Circa Eliminator entries are on Seattle. If our team is also averaging a mediocre 15 or higher yards per point ratio on offense, betting on them has produced a 50-22-3 ATS record for 70% winners over the past five seasons. |
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10-22-23 | Commanders v. Giants OVER 37 | Top | 7-14 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
Washington Commanders vs NY Giants 1:00 PM EST Betting on the OVER with a total between 35.5 and 40 points with the home team being outscored by 5 or more points and is on a four or more game UNDER streak has seen the Over go 34-12 for 75% winning bets since 1989. If the total is between 35.5 and 40 points, the Over has gone 24-2 for 92% winning bets. |
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10-22-23 | Bills v. Patriots OVER 41 | Top | 25-29 | Win | 100 | 2 h 47 m | Show |
Buffalo Bills vs NE Patriots Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA 1:00 EST 8-Unit Best Bet OVER New England opened at 7.5 points rose to as high as 9 points before trading back down to 7.5 points and with 7 likely to be the number ahead of kickoff. The total has slid from an opening of 46 for this game before the season starts down to 40 and with some 39.5 numbers showing up. The Under has amassed a 53-37-1 Under record for 59% winners this season and 11-2-1 Under last week. So, for the first time in years, the public is betting this trend as if it will continue on for the remainder of the season. As a result, we are getting a cheap price for this game, especially given that the Bills are in position for a bounce back offensively against the Patriots. The implied game result based on the current market pricing is a 24-16 Bills win. The Patriots team total warrants a sprinkle or not more than 2 units betting Over 16.5 points and getting +105 juice at DraftKings. I don’t like the Over Buffalo team total as the Patriots might score 20 or more points, so as shocking as it might be, I think this game could end up quite close. There is simply a higher probability that the Patriots exceed their team total than it is for the Bills to exceed theirs. Betting on the Over with a total between 35.5 and 42 points that is coming off four consecutive Unders and is a team getting outscored by four or more PPG on the season has earned a 62-36 record for 63% winners since 1989 and 11-5 OVER for 69% since 2019. Now, if the team referenced is playing at home, which the Patriots are has produced a 37-13 Over record good for 74% winning bets. |
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10-21-23 | Duke v. Florida State -14 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Duke vs Florida State In a matchup of ranked teams where the home team is ranked in the Top-15 and favored by double digits and hosting a foe that is ranked 15th or higher in the latest poll and a total of 50 or fewer points have gone 15-0 SU and 11-4 ATS. Duke is 1-9 ATS following a blowout win of 21 or more points over a conference rival. FSU is 10-1 ATS following three straight games facing conference foes. UNC coming off a 24-3 win as 4-point favorites over NC State.  FSU is 6-0 on the season and coming off a 41-3 dominated win over Syracuse. They have scored 31 or more points in every game and have played a more difficult schedule than Duke. FSU played then No.5 LSU on a neutral field and won 45-24 and then two weeks later traveled to Clemson and won 31-24. |
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10-21-23 | Michigan v. Michigan State +25 | Top | 49-0 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
No. 2 Michigan vs Michigan State Michigan is 12-26 ATS in road games following a game in which they covered the spread by double-digits; 2-11 ATS following a game in which they scored 50 or more points. Betting on dogs between 21 and 25.5 points following three or more straight-up losses and facing a conference foe in the month of October has earned a highly profitable 38-20-3 ATS for 65.5% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This is a rivalry game and for Michigan State is their season as nothing else will really matter for them the remainder of the season. |
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10-21-23 | Penn State +5 v. Ohio State | Top | 12-20 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
Penn State vs Ohio State Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH Noon ET 10-Unit Best Bet on Penn State plus the 5 points. Consider betting this game with 8-units preflop and then look to add the remaining two units on PSU if OSU scores a TD first or regains the lead during the first half of action. From the models, there is a solid chance that if the research is correct, that PSU scores first and wins the game, which would eliminate any opportunity to get the 2-unit placed. Instead, playing a 6-Unit bet on the line and a 2-Unit bet on the money line preflop is a solid strategy too. PSU has one of the top offensive yards per point ratio in the nation – even factoring out the scrimmages against UMASS and Delaware. Teams that are ranked in the Top-10 from week 7 on out, and have posted a 46-7 SU record and a 31-22 ATS mark for 59% winning bets. If the team has a YPPT of 11 or lower (more efficient) and priced as a road dog have gone 20-12-1 ATS for 63% winners. The quarterback comparison is heavily in favor of PSU. In games against ranked AP opponents, Drew Allar has earned a 141 QB rating, completed 68% of his passes, averaged 166 passing yards per game and thrown for four touchdowns. He has yet to throw an interception in any game. OSU’s Kyle McCord has posted a 111 QBR, completed only 57% of his passes, averaging 240 passing yards and throwing ZERO touchdowns. Now, McCord has to go up against arguably the best defense in the nation that ranks #2 nationally allowing 8.2 PPG, best allowing 204 YPG, #2 allowing 0.128 points-per-play, best allowing 3.2 YPP, 8th allowing a 28% third down conversion rate, second allowing 67.4 rushing yards per game and allowing 2.1 yards per rush, best allowing 51% completion percentage, best allowing 4.9 yards per pass, #2 with a 14% sack percentage. Penn State defeated UMASS 63-0 last week. That result may seem completely irrelevant for this game, but note that teams that scored 58 or more points and allowed six or fewer points in their previous game and now are priced as a road dog have gone 28-16 ATS for 64% since 1980 and if facing a conference foe they have gone 14-6 ATS for 70% winners. PSU QB Drew Allar has a canon for an arm and despite the grey skies, I do believe you will see vertical crossing routes deep down the field using play action. PSU offensive line is tremendous and the best unit that Franklin has ever had. The ground attack is going to control the line of scrimmage and then when you see the OSU safeties creep closer and closer to the LOS to support the run defense I when these ’bomb’s will be thrown. Note, too, that OSU has allowed and gotten 10 sacks on the season. PSU has 26 sacks 50 tackles for loss and has allowed a sack on just 2.4% of all plays run ranking 9th-best nationally. PSU is the better team on the OL and DL and we are getting points. |
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10-20-23 | SMU -23 v. Temple | Top | 55-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
SMU vs Temple Betting on road teams that allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games and now taking on a host that scored 17 or fewer points in their last game has earned a 133-66-2 ATS record for 67% winners. If the game is a conference matchup and our road team is favored by 17 or more points, the record soars to 45-3 SU, 34-14 ATS for 71% winners since 2010. Betting on road teams that are facing a host that has had a -1 or worse turnover margin in four consecutive games has gone 87-41-4 ATS for 68% winners over the past 10 seasons. If our road team is a double-digit favorite, they soar to 28-10-1 ATS for 74% winning bets. |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints OVER 40 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Jacksonville vs. New Orleans The market is overwhelmingly betting the Under all week and pushing it lower. 77% of the tickets bet this week are on the Under. Saints are 22-7-1 Over in home games and taking on a foe that is averaging 45 or fewer penalty yards per game. JAX is 51-32 Over after having won four or five of their last six games; 31-15 ATS off a home win to a divisional rival. JAX head coach Pederson is 17-6 Over when priced as a 7 or fewer road underdog. Since 1991, there have been just four teams to start out their seasons with 6 consecutive Under results. They all went 4-0 SUATS and 4-0 OVER. Teams that played six consecutive games Under the posted total and playing in weeks 7 through 10 have seen the Over go 24-10 for 71% winners. If the total is less than 43 points, the Over has gone 21-8 for 72.4% winning bets. Also, the Jaguars have really gotten it together over the past several weeks and without anyone noticing. They have produced a 11.8 yards per point ratio on offense for their last three games, which is third best in the league and a 21.9 YPPT ratio defensively over their last three games, which ranks 2nd in the league. Last, the Over price reflects the uncertainty or likelihood that Trevor Lawrence will not play tonight for the Jaguars. However, I am hearing that there is a much higher probability he will be under center tonight. Â Thursday Night Football 8-UNIT Best Bet Total |
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10-19-23 | James Madison v. Marshall +3.5 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
James Madison vs Marshall JMU is off to a perfect 6-0 start and are one of 11 undefeated FBS teams left in the nation. Marshall is a member of the Sun Belt and they need to a win to keep pace for the conference lead with Georgia State given that JMU is not eligible having moved up from the FCS last season. Also, JMU is coming off a monster win on the scoreboard winning by 28 points but outgaining Georgia Southern by just 18 total yards. Betting on home dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points following a game in which they committed no more than one turnover and facing a foe that has turned in a +1 turnover advantage in each of their previous two games has produced a highly profitable 20-9-3 ASTS for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons. NCAAF Thursday Night Sun Belt |
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10-18-23 | Florida International +5.5 v. Sam Houston State | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 22 m | Show |
Florida International vs. Sam Houston State Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, Huntsville, TX 8-Unit Best Bet on FIU plus the points, currently priced at 5. With the total priced at 41 points, scoring volatility will be below normal and limits the opportunity for a live in-game first half bet. So, I recommend placing the 8-Units all at once preflop. Betting on dogs of 4.5 to 9.5 points in weeks 5 through 9 of the regular season that are coming off back-to-back conference losses of 10 or more points have gone 27-33 SU and 42-17-1 ATS for 71% winning bets since 2015. |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys v. Chargers +1.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
MNF: Dallas vs LA Chargers SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA 8-Unit Best Bet on the Chargers +1.5 points Consider betting 6-Units on the Chargers preflop and then look to add the remaining 2 units if Dallas scores a TD first or takes a 10-0 lead or retakes the lead by 4 or more points during the first half of action. Betting on teams using the money line following a game in which they forced three or more turnovers and now taking on a foe that committed four or more turnovers in their previous game has earned a 36-12 record for 75% winning bets over the previous 10 seasons. If the game has a total of 50 or more points, they have gone on to a near-perfect 6-1 SUATS mark for 86% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From the predictive model, the Chargers are a rock-solid 62-8 SU (89%) and 58-12 ATS (83%) winning bets in home games in which they scored 23 or more points and forced two or more turnovers. |
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10-15-23 | Patriots v. Raiders OVER 41 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders 4:05 PM EST, Week 6 10-Unit best bet OVER the posted total The Patriots are certainly struggling right now, especially on offense where they have scored a total of three points over their last two games and got shutout in their last game. The Patriots have seen their last four games play under the total and by a combined 19 points and in large part because of their anemic pathetic offensive performances. On defense they have allowed the opponents team total to go Over by a combined 22 points over their last four games and by 29 points over their last two games. The Patriots offense has played Under their team total by an incredibly poor 44 points. Teams that have played under their team total by 40 or more points and are on the road have gone 22-27 SU and 33-16 ATS for 67% winning bets since 1990. Teams that have scored 3 or fewer points in their last two games have seen the Over go 10-3 for 77% winners and teams that have scored 6 or fewer points over their last two games have gone 29-12 Over for 71% winning bets. Betting the Over with road teams in a game with a posted total of 37.5 to 42.5 points that are averaging an anemic 14 or fewer points per game and coming off two consecutive double-digit losses has seen the Over go 35-16-1 ATS for 69% winning bets since 1990 and 6-1 Over spanning the past five seasons. |
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10-15-23 | Panthers +14.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL 1:00 EST, Week 6 8-Unit Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers plus the points, currently priced at +14.5 points. Well, periodically, the numbers do point solidly to a dog, or perhaps better stated using the noun mutt, or a dog with a serious case of fleas, and this is certainly one of those opportunities. Carolina is winless at 0-5 and the Dolphins are 4-1 overall and 2-0 at home and considered by many to be the team to dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC. Betting on Dogs, with or without fleas, that are facing a non-divisional foe that has gained at least 450 total yards in each of their last three games and is also averaging at least 6 yards per play for the season have gone an amazing 11-15 SU and 20-5-1 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons.  Several months ago, when the Circa and a few others released their full season betting lines, the Dolphins were priced as a 7-point home favorite. The market has moved the price to a whopping 14.5 points an increase of 7.5 points. I have studied and participated in the Circa and WestGate and numerous other contests and when the line moves 6 or more points from those opening preseason lines presents a sold contrarian betting opportunity. The market and betting communities over react and price the surging juggernauts higher than warranted and discount the talents of struggling winless teams too much– not always of course. Winless teams on the road in weeks 4 through 7 of the regular season are 32-13-1 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the are priced as double-digit dogs has produced an 8-3 ATS mark for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.   |
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10-15-23 | Saints v. Texans +2 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
New Orleans Saints vs Houston Texans NRG Stadium, Houston, TX 1:00 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet on the Texans plus the 2.5 points  Betting on teams priced between the 3’s that are coming off a loss of three or fewer points and facing a foe that allowed 6 or fewer points in their previous game have gone 30-10 SU and 28-12 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. Home dogs in this role are 12-14 SU and 17-9 ASTS for 65% winners, and 17-8-1 Over the total for 68% winners. If priced as a four or fewer point dog, they soar to 12-4 ATS for 75% winning bets. Saints are 1-8 ATS when allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards and 1-10 ATS after allowing three or fewer points in the first half of their previous game spanning the past three seasons. Regression.   |
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10-15-23 | 49ers v. Browns +10 | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
49ers vs Cleveland Browns  1:00 PM EST, Week 6  8-Unit Best bet on the Browns plus the 10 or more points Watson is not starting, but the market has all of this priced into the current level of 10 points. The 49ers coming off a 32-point victory over the rival Dallas Cowboys and now will be facing a vastly underrated defensive unit that I believe can keep this game quite close no matter who is under center for the Browns offense. Bet on home underdogs that are facing a foe that has defeated their opponents by an average of 10 or more PPG and with that foe coming off a double-digit win have gone 40-45 SU, 60-24-1 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If that foes win was by 21 or more points, these dogs have gone 22-28 SU and 34-15-1 ATS for 69.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If that foe is also averaging fewer than 1 turnovers per game have seen these dogs go 12-5 ATS for 71% winning bets. |
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10-14-23 | USC +3 v. Notre Dame | Top | 20-48 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
USC vs Notre Dame Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Damer, IN 7:30 EST NBC/Peacock 8-Unit Best Bet on the Trojans plus the 2.5 points. This game is a matchup of ranked teams with USC taking to the road with a 6-0 SU record to take on a desperate Notre Dame squad with two losses on the season. USC is 2-4 ATS and 5-1 Over for the season. The Irish are 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS including a 4-3 Under result on the season. USC  has lost to the spread and seen the Over win the money in each of their last three games. Notre Dame has lost two of their last three games in a most-difficult schedule and covered the spread in just one. Notre Dame lost 17-14 hosting Ohio State, then took to the road and won a tough-fought game 21-14 at Duke, and then another road game losing at Louisville by the final score of 33-20. The Irish team is experiencing a fatigue problem on both sides of the ball, but regardless will have to be fully prepared if they have hopes of upsetting USC and their reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Smith. Supporting USC is the following betting system that has produced a 23-24 SU record and 25-12 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: 1.     Bet on a road teams priced between the 4’s. 2.     That road team is coming off a game in which they and their foe scored 31 or more points in their previous game. 3.     The game is a non-conference matchup. |
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10-14-23 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh +7.5 | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
No. 14 Louisville vs Pittsburgh Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA 8-Unit Best Bet on the Pitt Panthers plus the six points and sprinkle the money line. 6:30 PM EST Betting on home dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points coming off two straight double-digit losses to conference foes in weeks 5 through 9 and with the total of at least 40 points has earned a strong 21-25 SU record and 32-12-2 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Now, be sure to be sitting down for this subset. If our home dog has won no more than one game on the season, they soar to an unreal 10-9 SU and 15-3-1 ATS record good for 83% winning bets. |
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10-14-23 | Oregon v. Washington -3 | Top | 33-36 | Push | 0 | 48 h 26 m | Show |
No. 8 Oregon vs No. 7 Washington  8:00 EST, Thursday  10-Unit Best Bet on Washington minus the points, currently priced as 3-point favorites.  Betting on teams priced between the 3’s and facing a foe following four consecutive games in which they covered the spread has produced a 39-15 SU record for 72% and 40-14 ATS for 74% winning bets over the past five seasons. Not one losing record and went 14-1 ATS in 2021. If our team is playing at home and facing a conference foe, their record has gone 20-5 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. From the predictive model, we learn that Washington is 19-1 SU and 15-5 ATS for 75% when scoring 35 or more points and gaining at least 7.4 yards per play. Washington is also 7-1 ATS when having 10 or more first downs and gaining at least 6 YPPL. Last, Washington is 31-2 SU and 28-4-1 ATS when scoring 28 or more points and having 10 or more first downs than their foes. 10-UNIT PAC-12 MAX Best Bet Game of the Month |
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10-14-23 | Troy -6 v. Army | Top | 19-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Troy vs Army Michie Stadium, West Point, NY 3:30 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet on Troy minus the 6 points Betting on road teams with a win percentage of at least 60% and coming off a conference win allowing less than 10 points has earned an outstanding 58-34-3 ATS record for 63% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If the host has a losing record on the season (Army), our road teams have gone 22-10-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If the total is 55 or fewer points, our road team has produced a highly profitable 10-0 ATS. Take Troy. |
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10-14-23 | Syracuse +19 v. Florida State | Top | 3-41 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 29 m | Show |
Syracuse Orange vs. No. 4 Florida State Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL Noon EST 8-Unit Best Bet on the Orange +18.5 points From the predictive model, we are expecting the Orange offense to outperform the market’s expectations by scoring 26 or more points in this game. Betting OVER the Orange team total is valid. Consider betting 5 to 6 units on Syracuse plus the points and the remaining 1 to 2 units OVER the team total. Now, in past games in which the Orange scored 26 or more points and scored in each quarter has produced a 40-7 SU record, 38-8-1 ATS mark for 83% winning bets. In road games dressed as a conference dog and scoring in at least 3 of the 4 quarters has produced a 7-7 SU record and an 11-2-1 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets. A little sprinkle on the money line is warranted – just in case. |
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10-14-23 | Indiana v. Michigan -33 | Top | 7-52 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
Indiana vs Michigan Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI Noon EST 8-Unit Best Bet on the Wolverines minus the points Betting on a team that has won their last three games by at least 21 points and facing a foe that lost their last game by 17 or more points has produced an exceptional 77-8 SU record and a 59-25-1 ATS mark for 70% winning bets since 2010. Now, if that foe is coming off a loss to a conference foe the record improves to a stellar 47-17-1 ATS for 73.4% winning bets since 2010. Drilling a bit deeper into the data, if our team is favored by 21 or more points, they soar to 44-0 SU and 34-9-1 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2010. A second algorithm has produced a 31-16 ATS mark for 66% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are to bet on an undefeated team favored by 21 or more points that has won their last two games by 28 or more points and facing a foe that allowed 37 or more points in their last game. |
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10-13-23 | Fresno State -4.5 v. Utah State | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Fresno State vs Utah State 8:00 PM EST, Friday 8-Unit Best Bet on Fresno State minus the points, currently priced as a 4-point favorite. The following betting algorithm has produced a 278-70 SU record for 80% wins and 207-137-4 ATS for 60% winning bets over the past 12 seasons. The requirements are to bet on road favorites that are averaging 31 or more PPG and facing a foe that is coming off back-to-back games in which 60 or more points were scored in each game. If our road favorite is facing a conference foe and coming off an upset loss, the record improves to 33-6 SU for 85% wins and 26-12-1 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2012. FSU head coach Tedford is 30-15-1 ATS for 67% winners as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. USU head coach Anderson is just 2-11 ATS after gaining 575 or more3 total yards in their previous game. Ryan’s NCAAF Friday Night Lights Best Bet |
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10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 46.5 | Top | 8-19 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
Denver vs KC Â 8:15 EST
 8-UNIT bet OVER the total, currently at 47 points Broncos are 19-5 Over when facing a team that averages 19 or fewer yards on kickoff returns; 45-20 Over following three or more consecutive Over results; Payton is 40-20-2 Over in road games with a total between 42.5 and 49 points for his career. From the predictive model, we learn that the OVER has gone 11-4-1 for 73% winners when the Chiefs have gained 400 or more total yards in games played over the past three seasons; 16-4 Over for 80% winners when gaining at least 6 yards per play in games played over the past three seasons. NFL 8-UNIT BEST BET TOTAL |
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10-12-23 | West Virginia v. Houston +3 | Top | 39-41 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
West Virginia vs Houston  7:00 EST, Thursday  8-Unit Best Bet on Houston plus the points Houston is 18-6 ATS for 75% winners when facing a team that averages fewer than one forced turnover per game; 32-16-1 ATS after having failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games; 11-1 SU in home games following two straight games in which they did not turn the ball over more than once in games played over the past three seasons. Betting on teams priced between the 3’s and facing a foe following four consecutive games in which they covered the spread has produced a 39-15 SU record for 72% and 40-14 ATS for 74% winning bets over the past five seasons. Not one losing record and went 14-1 ATS in 2021. |
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10-10-23 | Liberty -6.5 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Liberty at Jacksonville State  7:30 EST, Tuesday  Burgess-Snow Field, Jacksonville, AL  8-Unit Best Bet on Liberty minus the points, currently -6  Let’s get right into the betting algorithm supporting this best bet opportunity produced from the predictive model. This one has earned a 33-33 record, but a highly profitable 41-21-4 ATS for 66.1% winning bets over the past 8 seasons going back to 2014. The requirements are to bet on teams in a matchup of soldi teams that each have won 80% or more of their games on the season and with the foe having covered the spread by 49 or more points over the past five games. Now, if our team is favored by 4.5 to 9.5 points, the record soars to a highly profitable 12-4-2 ATS for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Liberty is undefeated at 5-0 and has covered the spread in four of those five games losing to the spread last game against Sam Houston State. JAX State is 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS. They have covered their last five games by 62.5 points and by 67 points on the season. So, this is the achievement level in which we would expect JAX State to experience some form of regression and a market that has now over valued them. In fact, home dogs of 6 or more points that have covered the spread by 60 or more points over their last 6 games have gone just 4-19 SU and 7-16 ATS for 30% wins. |
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10-09-23 | Packers +2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Green Bay vs Las Vegas  8:15 PM EST  8-UNIT BEST BET on Green Bay Packers +2.5 or more points. Coming off a dismal NFL Sunday, but it is a reminder that no one is going to produce profits every week of any NFL season. Even in weeks that we have gone 4-1 or 5-0 ATS the results remind us that this is a grind, and that the success of any season is not dependent on one single week. I know all of you are quite used to my nagging (for very good reasons) and that discipline is the key. So, do not attempt to use this game to win back the losses over the weekend and at the same time, do not ever bet the profits made over the weekend on a MNF game. Betting on underdogs that are facing a team that committed three or more turnovers in their previous game and has a defense that averages one or fewer turnovers per game on the season has earned an outstanding 33-32-1 SU record and a highly profitable 46-16-4 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our dog is playing in a non-conference game, they soar to a 12-6-1 record and 14-3 ATS for 82% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Here is the clincher, if our dog is playing on the road has produced a 9-3-1 SU record and a near-perfect 11-1-1 ATS mark good for 92% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From the predictive model, we learn that the Packers are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS when gaining 100 or more rushing yards and forcing two or more opponent turnovers in games played over the past five seasons. |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys +4 v. 49ers | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers  4:25 EST  8-Unit best Bet on the Cowboys plus the points Let’s get right to the point of this play and reveal a betting algorithm that earned a highly profitable 29-8-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and has covered the spread by an average of The requirements are to bet on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have committed no more than a single turnover in each of their four previous games and facing a foe that has forced no more than a single turnover in each of their last two games. If our team is on the road the results improve to a remarkable 18-13 SU and 25-5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Betting on road teams that are facing a host that is gaining 1.75 or more yards per pass than their opponents and coming off two consecutive games in which they gained 6.75 or more yards per pass has earned a 29-26 SU record and 35-17-3 ATS mar good for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From the predictive model, the Cowboys are 93-13 SU and 85-19-2 ASTS when gaining at least 125 rushing yards and forcing 2 or more turnovers and 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS for 79% winners over the past five seasons. |
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10-08-23 | Jets +2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
New York Jets vs Denver Broncos  4:05 PM EST  8-Unit Best Bet on the NY Jets plus the points Betting on road teams priced between the 3’s and with the host coming off two straight road tilts and with the game occurring between weeks 5 and 8 have gone 38-17 SU and 36-16-3 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Betting on road teams priced between the 3’s, has covered the spread in just one of the previous three games, in a matchup of losing record teams, and with the host coming of two straight road games have gone 23-13 SU and 22-12-4 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From the predictive model, the Broncos are just 13-25-1 SU and 5-33-1 ATS when allowing 24 or more points and allowing 5.5 or more YPPL. |
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10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
Eagles vs Rams  4:05 PM EST, 10/8
The Eagles offense has not been in sync for an entire game, yet they have scored points in every quarter of their 4-0 start, except the second quarter in Week 1 against the Patriots. Teams that have scored in 15 or 16 of the quarters played spanning their last four games, priced as a road favorite, and facing a non-divisional foe have gone 16-16 SU, 9-22-1 ATS for 29%, and a solid 20-12 Over record for 63% winning bets. |
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10-08-23 | Texans v. Falcons -2 | Top | 19-21 | Push | 0 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
Houston Texans vs Atlanta Falcons  1:00 PM EST  8-Unit Best Bet on the Falcons -2.5 points The following betting algorithm has earned a 36-15 SU record (71%) and a 36-12-3 ATS mark for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on a team that has not covered the spread in three consecutive games and facing a foe that has covered the spread in three consecutive games and priced between the 3’s.  Drilling further down into the database, if the total in these games was 45 or fewer points, these teams went 17-5 SU (77%), 16-4-2 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team scored first in the contest, they went on to a 10-0 SU and ATS record and covered the spread by an average of 9 PPG. |
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10-08-23 | Giants +13 v. Dolphins | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
NY Giants vs Miami Dolphins  1:00 PM EST  8-Unit Best Bet on the Giants plus the points I know I will hear many moans on this one as we are backing a team that finds ways to play poorly in critical situations and find ways to lose games. Remember, I am betting on situations and not the mascot, and not if the team looked great or horrid in their previous game. That also applies to the great recent play by the Dolphins, who are on the precipice of regression too. The following betting system underscores the regression, and that the Dolphins recent offensive prowess is unsustainable. The algorithm has gone 19-12 SU, but 5-24-2 ATS for 17%, and the Under has gone 21-9-1 for 70% winning bets. The requirements are to bet on underdogs in a non-divisional frey that are facing a team that has averaged 450 or more yards of total offense over their last three games and has averaged 6 or more YPPL on the season. If the matchup is a non-conference one, these dogs have chewed mercilessly on these false favorites to the tune of 9-4 SU record and a near-perfect 10-1-2 ATS mark since 2017. The clincher, if we even needed one, is the fact that if our dog is priced at 4 or more points, they have gone on to a 5-3 SU record and a perfect 7-0-1 ATS record.  |
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10-07-23 | Georgia Tech v. Miami-FL -20 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Georgia Tech vs No. 17 Miami (FLA) 8:00 PM EST Betting on home favorites of 11.5 or more points in games with a posted total between 42.5 and 59.5 points and hosting a foe that is fresh off a humiliating loss of 17 or more points as a home favorite of 10 or more points have earned an outstanding 47-4 SU record and a 37-13-1 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and 36-1 SU and 27-9-1 ATS since 2006. If this game is a matchup of conference foes, the favorite has gone 15-4-1 ATS for 79% winning bets. From the predictive model, we are expecting the Hurricanes to score 35 or more points and when they have in home games have earned a highly profitable 4-0 SU and ATS and covering the number by an average of 9 PPG under current head coach Mario Cristobal. |
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10-07-23 | Vanderbilt v. Florida -17.5 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
Vanderbilt vs Florida  8-Unit best bet on the Florida Gators minus the points  4:00 EST SECN Betting on conference favorites between 13.5 and 19.5 points that are playing with revenge from a last season loss priced as a double-digit favorite and taking on a foe that is fresh off a loss priced as a dog have gone a highly profitable 31-4 SU and 25-10 ATS for 71.4% winning bets over the past 25 seasons of action and 6-2 ASTS over the past five seasons. Florida is 16-3-1 ATS in home games when facing a poor rushing team that is gaining an average of just 120 or fewer yards per game. Vanderbilt is 0-6 ATS this season and 13-35 ATS following a game in which they have allowed 325 or more passing yards. Road conference dogs are just 18-29-3 ATS for 38% if they have lost 6 or more consecutive games to the spread, lost 4 or more consecutive games SU and have two or fewer wins on the season.    |
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10-07-23 | Washington State v. UCLA -3 | Top | 17-25 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Washington State vs UCLA Â 3:00 PM EST Â 8-Unit Best Bet on UCLA minus the 3.5 points Again, consider betting 5.5 units preflop on UCLA and then look to get 1.5 more units on UCLA at Pick-em and then 1-Unit at +2.5. This game has a total of 60+ points and the scoring volatility is coming to be quite high so let it work in your favor. Unranked home favorites facing a conference foe that is ranked 10th to 25th in the current poll and with a game total between 52.5 and 65 points have gone 31-20 ATS for 61% winners. |
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10-07-23 | LSU -5.5 v. Missouri | Top | 49-39 | Win | 100 | 2 h 52 m | Show |
LSU vs Missouri  Noon PM EST, 10/7
Consider betting 6-units preflop on the Tigers and then look for Missouri to score the first TD of the game and get the remaining 2-units on the Tigers at pick-em or as close to pick-em as possible. Here is a situational betting algorithm that has produced a 41-14 SU record and am32-21-2 ATS record for 61% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and is 8-3 ATS over the past seven seasons. The requirements are to bet on road favorites in a conference matchup that are ranked lower in the current AP poll. LSU is 23rd while undefeated Missouri is 21st. if our team is coming off a loss, they soar to 13-5-2 ATS for 72% winning bets and if they scored 27 or more points in that loss are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS LSU has two losses and Missouri has none, but LSU has played a much more difficult schedule. You may recall we had Ole Miss as a 10-UNIT MAX Bet winner over LSU last week and with the other loss taking place in Week 1 over highly ranked FSU. There have been reports of player descension in the locker room over head coach Kelly. I do not put much weight in the handicapping of this game, because at the end of the day, many of the players in that locker room have much bigger goals of playing in the NFL. |
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10-07-23 | Oklahoma v. Texas -4.5 | Top | 34-30 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
Oklahoma vs Texas  Noon EST, October 7, Week 6  8-Unit best bet on the Texas Longhorns minus the points Betting on teams that have won 80% or more of their games and facing a foe that has covered the spread by 49 or more points spanning their last five games and also has won 80% or more of their games on the season has produced a highly profitable 29-13-3 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Teams, like Texas, who they and their current foe in week 6 action has no more than one loss and with that foe having covered the spread by 42 or more points over their first five games has gone 9-4-1 ATS for 69% winning bets. Also, teams, like Texas, who are coming off a game in which they gained 300 or more rushing and 300 or more passing yards in their previous game have gone 96-29 (77%) and 71-52-2 ATS for 58% winning bets. If facing an undefeated conference foe has gone 6-1 SU and ATS for 86% winning bets. In the red river rivalry, Texas is 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS for 82% winners when scoring 31 or more points and the predictive model shows an 84% probability that Texas will score 31 or more points. Even if they score 28 or more points, Texas has gone 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS for 85% winners. |
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10-07-23 | Western Michigan v. Mississippi State -21 | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
Western Michigan vs Mississippi State  Noon EST, Saturday  8-Unit best bet on Mississippi State minus the points Betting on favorites between 16 and 24.5 points and with a total between 48 and 61.5 points that are coming off a terrible loss of 20 or more points to a conference foe priced as an underdog and with the game occurring during the regular season have gone 59-2 SU, 45-16 ATS for 74% winning bets over the past 22 seasons. The total of 57 points and State being favored by 20 points implies a State 38.5-18.5 point win. The predictive model shows an 82% probability that State will score at least 31 points and in past games in which they have done this, they have gone 40-6 SU and 36-9 ATS for 80% winning bets and if on the road facing a non-conference foe has produced a 17-1 SU record and a 13-5 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets. |
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10-06-23 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State +11.5 | Top | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Kansas State vs Oklahoma State  7:30 PM EST, 10/6
 plus 11.5 points.  Here is a situational betting algorithm that has produced a 33-45 SU record and a 47-25-6 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and is 10-1 ATS over the past three seasons. The requirements are to bet on a team that has a struggling defense that is allowing between 5.6 and 6.25 YPPL and is facing a team that has a solid offensive unit gaining at least 6.2 YPPL and has a defense that allowed 6.75 YPPL in each of their last two games. Over the past three seasons this algorithm has produced an 8-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS mark good for 82% winning bets. |
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10-05-23 | Bears +6.5 v. Commanders | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders 8:15 PM EST, 10/5 Prime Telecast Certainly not a ‘sexy matchup’, but the analytics clearly point to a contrarian bet on the Bears plus the 5.5 points. Betting on road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are allowing an average of 28 or more points per game on the season have gone 47-89 SU (65.6%), 88-46-3 ATS (65.7%) over the past 10 seasons of action. If our road warrior underdog is facing a host coming off a home loss, they soar to 6-10 SU, and 12-4 ATS for 75% winners over the past 10 seasons. Betting on road teams after allowing 6.75 or more YPPA in four consecutive games and now facing a foe that is coming off a game in which they allowed 8 or more YPPA has yielded a 35-31-1 SU record and 48-19 ATS for 72% winning bets since 1989. If in a non-divisional matchup, these dogs soar to 22-22-1 SU and 32-13 ATS for 71.1% winning bets over the past 34 seasons and has had just 3 seasons losing money. Here is a second betting algorithm that ash done quite well earning a 26-19 SU record and 29-14-2 ATS mark good for 67.4% winning bets over the past 34 seasons. The requirements are to bet on dogs of six or fewer points that are coming off a loss in which the game played Over the total and with that dog having more penalties then incomplete passes. |
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10-05-23 | Western Kentucky v. Louisiana Tech +6 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston, LA 8:00 EST, October 5 8-Unit Best Bet on the LT Bulldogs plus the points It is Thursday and we have two games scheduled in the C-USA. The Bulldogs are coming off a 24-10 win featuring a punt return for a TD over UTEP. JAX State won lasty night as an 8-Unit Best bet over Middle Tennessee State and leads the conference with a 3-0 record. The Bulldogs are 2-0 and W. Kentucky is 1-0 in conference play, so barring a tie, one of these teams will join the conference unbeaten ranks. Betting on home underdogs ranging from 3.5 to 9.5 points that is coming off a game in which they committed no more than one turnover and facing a foe that has won the turnover battle in their past two games has earned a highly profitable 13-16 SU record and a 19-7-3 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons. Bulldogs head coach Sonny Cumbie is on a 6-0 ASTS run when playing on the road for the second consecutive week. From the predictive mode, we are expecting the bulldogs to score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers and when they have met these measures has produced a 74-14 SU record and 64-22-2 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets and when priced as a home pup has produced a 3-6 SU mark and a near-perfect 8-1 ATS for 89% winning bets. |
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10-04-23 | Jacksonville State +3.5 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 45-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee State Thursday, October 5 8-Unit best bet on Jacksonville State plus the points Betting on a team that is coming off a game that soared over the total by at least 21 points, is a dog between 3.5 and 9.5 points, in the first 7 weeks of the regular season, and has won 70% or more of their games has earned a solid 27-15-2 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. MTST head coach Stockstill is 1-12 ATS when facing a team with a turnover margin of 1 or better per game. From the predictive model, we are looking for JST to score 24 or more points and to commit the same or fewer turnovers. MTST is 8-21 and 5-24 ATS for 17% when allowing 24 or more points in home games and have the same or more turnovers. |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks v. Giants +2.5 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Seattle Seahawks vs NY Giants MetLife Stadium 8-Unit best bet on the Giants getting the 2-points The Giants remained on the west coast after their historic come from behind win over the Arizona Cardinals to prepare for one of the best teams in the NFL, the 49ers, and on a short week. They lost that game, but were quite competitive during the first half, and are not fully rested for this game tonight at home. Betting on teams that has not covered the spread in their last three games and taking on a foe that has covered their last three games and with the price between a 3-point favorite and underdog has produced a 30-13 SU record and a 30-10-3 ATS mark for 75% winning bets over the past 8 years (since start of the 2015 season). Betting on Underdogs that are struggling to gain yards in the passing game averaging 5.5 or fewer YPPA, is coming of a game where their defense allowed 8 or more YPPA, and now facing a foe that struggles to stop the pass allowing an average of 7.25 or more YPPA has produced a 42-19 ATS record for 69% winning bets. If our team is a home dog, they have soared to a money-making 18-7 ASTS for 72% winning bets. The Giants QB, Daniel Jones is an inconsistent one and many others would say he is downright terrible, but this is a matchup ladies and gentlemen that he has the potential to shine brightly. This is a must-win game for the Giants to say within distance of the undefeated Eagles and one-loss Cowboys in the NFC East division. They lost their first two prime time games by a combined score of 70-12 and failed to cover the spread by a combined 44 points. So, they are rested, fully prepared, and I do expect them to put out their best effort of the season. The predictive model tells us that the Giants when playing at home and scoring 23 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers then the foe has produced a 77-11 SU record (88%) and a 68-19-1 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets. |
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10-01-23 | Dolphins v. Bills UNDER 53.5 | Top | 20-48 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 32 m | Show |
NFL Week 4 Dolphins vs Bills 8-Unit Best Bet on the Under 53.5 points The total for this game is priced at 53.5 points. So, scoring volatility is expected to be high. My suggested strategy is to bet 5.5 units preflop and then if the game starts out fast on the scoreboard add 1.5 units at 56.5 points and then 1 unit at 58.5 points. Betting on teams with a total of 45 or more points and facing a foe that scored double digits in each quarter of their previous game has produced a 8-7 SU record, 10-5 ATS and 11-4 UNDER. The Dolphins scored 14 points in each of the first and third quarters and 21 points in the second and fourth quarters in last week’s historic 70-point offensive explosion. Betting on a road team facing a divisional foe and having seen the total play over by at least 24 points over their last three games has produced a 43-17-1 Under record for 72% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. If our road team saw their last three games play Over by 27 or more points has produced a 39-14-1 Under record for 74% winners spanning the last 25 seasons. Last, if that last three game total played over by 38 or more points, the Under has gone a highly profitable 23-5-1 for 83% winners spanning the past 25 seasons. |
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10-01-23 | Steelers v. Texans +3.5 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
NFL Week 4 Steelers vs Texans 8-Unit Best Bet on the Texans plus the points Betting on underdogs of not more than 7.5 points that are facing a foe that won their last two games in the previous season, but missed the playoffs, and with the current game taking place in the first four weeks of the current season has produced a 13-5 ATS mark for 72% winning bets since 2018. |
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10-01-23 | Ravens +2.5 v. Browns | Top | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
NFL Week 4 Ravens vs Browns 8-Unit Best Bet on the Ravens plus the 2.5 points 5-Unit Best Bet on the Over 38.5 points For the Over bet I like making 2.5 units on the Over preflop and then given that these are divisional foes from a gritty and defensive-minded AFC North, look for a low scoring first quarter and to add 2.5 units to the Over at a price of 34.5 or fewer points.  Betting on a team priced between the 4’s (4-point favorite to a 4-point underdog) that is coming off a loss (Ravens) by three or fewer points and facing a foe that allowed 6 or fewer points to their previous foe has earned a 36-18 ATS record for 67% winning bets and also produced a solid 37-14-3 OVER record for 73% winning bets |
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10-01-23 | Vikings -5 v. Panthers | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
NFL Week 4 Minnesota vs Carolina 8-Unit Best Bet on the Vikings minus the 4.5 points Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the Vikings and then during the first half look for -1.5 or bet the money line when the price is at -1.5 points. Betting on favorites including pick-em that are scoring an average of 23.5 to 27 PPG, is coming off two straight games in which they and their foes combined for 50 or more points in each game and facing a foe that is allowing between 23.5 and 27 PPG has produced a 61-32-3 ATS record for 65.6% winning bets since 2010. |
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10-01-23 | Commanders +9 v. Eagles | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show |
NFL Week 4 Commanders vs Eagles 8-Unit Best Bet on the Commanders plus the 9 points. Betting on road dogs between 3.5 and 10 points that are scoring at least 28 PPG have gone 80-37-4 ATS for 68.4% winning bets since 2015. If a divisional matchup, the record soars to 34-10-1 ATS for 77% winning bets and if a divisional matchup facing an undefeated foe, the record is 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS for 86% winning bets since 2015. |
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10-01-23 | Falcons v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 71 h 55 m | Show |
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons Wembley Stadium, London 8-Unit best bet on the Jaguars -3 -115 and is the worst line I see right now.  I do not believe the lines makers are going to move off of 3-points and instead raise the vig to -120 if necessary. If your book(s) have -3.5, then consider betting 5-unit preflop and then look to get 3 more units at pick-em or better during the first half of action (preferably the first quarter) Intuitively, I am just not seeing why the Jaguars are not priced closer to 6 points and the reason is not due to their dreadful loss to the Texans last week at home. We were on the Texans and never saw a blowout win by the Texans, but I thought they had a shot at it. I am not sold on Ritter being a solid NFL quarterback and the offense ranks 26th in the league and a worse 29th in passing offense. The Jaguar’s defense is an average one by NFL standards and certainly much better than the Falcons offense. Plus, this is the Jaguars second home field and a serious advantage given the travel itinerary and logistics involved in getting to London and then situated comfortably. The Jaguars have played in London five times since 2015 and are 4-1 SUATS. The Jaguars are 22-12-2 ATS for 65% winners from week 4 on out and facing a passing defense allowing an average 175 or fewer yards per game. From the predictive model, we are looking for the Jaguars to score 22 or more points and out gain the Falcons by at least 1.0 yards per play. In past games in which the Jaguars met or exceeded these performance measures has led to a highly profitable 42-8 SU record and 39-10-1 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets. |
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09-30-23 | Notre Dame v. Duke +5.5 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Notre Dame vs Duke Wallace Wade Stadium 7:30 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet on the Duke plus the 5.5 points In Week 1, we nailed Duke in their upset win over Clemson and here they are again poised to pull off an even bigger upset against a ranked Notre Dame team, who lost on the play of the game last week in South Bend over the Ohio State Buckeyes. So, betting on home dogs between 3 and 10 points in a matchup of two teams that out rush their opponents by 60 or more YPG have gone 26-22 SU and 35-11 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the foe is a Top-25 ranked team, the record of these live dogs soars to 18-9 SU and 22-4-1 ATS for 85% winning bets. Make no mistake about it, Duke has an excellent defense that can cause major problems for the Irish offense. The Irish are 11-26 ATS when facing a team, whose defense allows an average of 285 or fewer YPG; 14-34 ATS when facing a defense that allows 4.5 or fewer yards per play. Duke is on a 12-2 ATS win streak in games played on a grass field; 7-0 ASTS following a game in which they outgained the foe by 125 or more total yards; 10-1 ATS in home games played in the first half of the season over the last three seasons. |
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09-30-23 | LSU v. Ole Miss +2.5 | Top | 49-55 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
LSU vs Ole Miss 10-UNIT Best Bet on Ole Miss plus the points 6:00 PM EST Let’s start with some analytics. Betting on home underdogs whose defense allows between 330 and 390 yards per game and facing a foe that averages 440 or more YPG and is coming off a game in which they allowed 6.25 or more YPPL have gone 85-41-2 ATS for 68% winning best over the past 25 seasons. Ole Miss is 43-23 ATS when facing very good offenses averaging 34 or more PPG; 26-12-1 ATS in home games following two straight games in which they forced no more than one turnover in each game. Betting on home underdogs using the money line that is an elite passing team gaining an average of 8.3 PYPA after allowing 9 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game and now facing a foe that is an average passing defense allowing 6.5 to 7.5 PYPA has earned a highly profitable 17-10 record for 62% winners averaging a +275 wager earning a 110% ROI over the past 10 seasons. Betting on home teams using the money line in September that are facing a foe that is coming off a win by 7 or fewer points over a conference rival has gone 134-63-2 SU for 68% winners and 60-17 SU for 78% winners over the past 10 seasons. If in a conference matchup, our home team has gone 15-3 SU for 83% winning bets. |
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09-30-23 | Kansas v. Texas -16 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
No. 24 Kansas vs No. 3 Texas DKR – Texas Memorial Stadium 3:30 PM EST 8-Unit best bet on the Texas Longhorns minus the 16 points Kansas head coach Leipold is just 1-10 ATS in road games after out rushing their previous foe by at least 125 yards. Texas head coach Sarkisian is 6-0 ATS in home games following back-to-back games in which his defense no more than one turnover in each game. From the predictive model, we are looking for Texas to out gain Kansas by at least 2 YPPL and or score. In past games in which Texas accomplished this has seen them go 25-1 SU and 19-7 ATS for 73% winners when at home and priced as a double-digit favorite. |
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09-30-23 | Clemson v. Syracuse +7 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
Clemson vs Syracuse Noon EST 8-UNIT best bet on Syracuse plus the points and sprinkle the money line The Tigers are 2-11 ATS (15%) in the first 4 weeks last three seasons The Orange is 12-3 SU, 11-3-1 ATS (79%) in the first 4 weeks last three seasons The Orange is 44-23 SU, 43-24 ATS (64%) in home games after covering the spread in 2 of their last 3 since 1980 The Orange is 11-3 SU, 10-3-1 ATS (77%) in second straight home game since 2019 The Orange is 20-22 SU, 27-15 ATS (64%) after outgaining the previous foe by more than 100 yards 12-5 SU and ATS if the game is at home Dino Babers is 20-10 Under (67%) when facing a foe that is outscoring their opponents by >=10 PPG (potential defensive battle) Coach Babers is 6-11 SU, 11-6 ATS, 13-4 Under (76%) when taking on a foe that allows 3 or fewer yards per rush Dabo Swinney is 2-6 SU in road games after a game in which the forced zero turnovers Coach Babers is 10-3 SU following back-to-back games gaining >=6.25 or more YPPL   |
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09-30-23 | Penn State -26 v. Northwestern | Top | 41-13 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
Week 5: No. 6 Penn State vs Northwestern  Noon EST, 9-30  8-Unit Best Bet on Penn State -27 points and is good up to 29.5  8-Unit best bet Over the posted total of 47 points OR (Not Both) Over the team total for PSU 36.5 points OR 4-Units Over PSU team total and 4-UNITS OVER Game total Parlay is NOT recommended The undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions take to the road to take on the Big-Ten conference foe Northwestern Wildcats set to kickoff at Noon EST. Penn State is coming off an impressive, but largely unnoticed 31-0 dominating home win over the then-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes. After such a dominating win in which Penn State’s defense held Iowa to just four first downs, 56 passing yards and 26 rushing yards and outgained them by 321 total yards, they moved up one slot to No. 6 of the latest AP poll. That lack of attention is all the news info head coach James Franklin needs to motivate his team and avoid any minor letdown. I wrote prior to the season that I had made a bet at 38:1 that Texas would take on Penn State in the College Football Playoff game. Penn State ranks 15th scoring an average of 40.5 PPG and 5th-best allowing an average of just 8.8 PPG of the 133 Division-1 programs. Penn State is priced at +1600 and even now with a 4-0 record represents the biggest undervalued team on the board to win the National Championship at BetMGM.  Another futures bet I have made based on the value currently offered at DraftKings is on Penn State sophomore and 5-Star recruit Drew Allar at +3500 to win the Heisman. Through four games he has completed 67.2% of his passes for 903 passing yards, eight touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He is getting better with each game and although he is a dark horse to win the Heisman, if Penn State defeats Ohio State on the road and then Michigan at home, you can bet he will be one of the contenders. James Franklin has his best and most experienced offensive line and arguably the best unit in the Big Ten conference. The ground attack features last year’s Big Ten offensvie3 freshman of the year in Nicholas Singleton, who has 203 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Moreover, his running mate in the backfield returns in Kaytron Allen, who has 280 rushing yards and two touchdowns this season. Under head coach James Franklin is 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS for 87% winning bets in road games facing a conference foe and scoring 28 or more points.  |
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09-30-23 | Penn State v. Northwestern OVER 47.5 | Top | 41-13 | Win | 100 | 1 h 5 m | Show |
Week 5: No. 6 Penn State vs Northwestern Noon EST, 9-30 Â 8-Unit best bet Over the posted total of 47 points OR (Not Both) Over the team total for PSU 36.5 points OR 4-Units Over PSU team total and 4-UNITS OVER Game total Parlay is NOT recommended |
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09-29-23 | Louisville v. NC State +3.5 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
Louisville vs NC State 7:00 EST, ESPN Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC 8-Unit best bet the Wolfpack plus the 3.5 points NC State is 3-1 on the season and has not covered the spread in any of those four games. Their lone loss was at the hands of Notre Dame in Week 2 losing 45-24. Louisville is 5-0 and 2-3 ATS on the season and this is the first of many major showdowns coming up in the ACC. Not to mention Syracuse tomorrow taking on Clemson, who already has two losses on the season. Betting on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two solid rushing teams out gaining their foes by at least 60 YPG has earned an outstanding 26-22 record and 35-11 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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09-28-23 | Lions v. Packers +2.5 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI 8:15 PM EST, September 28, 2023 | Prime Video 8-Unit best bet on the Packers +2 points Consider betting 6-Units on the Packers at +2 points preflop and then add 2-Units if Detroit is the first to score a touchdown. So, 7-0, 7-3, or 10-3 Lions’ leads during the first half of action only. Betting on dogs in games played in the first four weeks of the season, that failed to make the playoffs last season, and won their last two games of that season have gone 15-8 SU and 16-7 ATS for 70% winners over the past 10 seasons. If playing on a short week, the home team (Packers) have gone 4-1 ATS over the past 10 seasons. Creating a variation of this algorithm we learn that dogs in a divisional matchup that failed to make the playoffs in their previous, but did win their last two games of that season and with the current opportunity occurring in the first four weeks are 26-19 SU and 33-12 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Now, working against Detroit is the fact that teams that were not in the playoffs and won their final two games of the previous season and find themselves of no more than a 6.5 point favorite, playing in the first four weeks of the season are just 3-13 ATS and 6-10 SU over the past five seasons and 40-46 SU and 24-59-3 ATS for 29% over the past 20 seasons. Some 1-Unit max pizza money best bets: 1.    Romeo Doubs +190 at DraftKings to score a TD 2.    Jordan Love to complete 20 or more passes -125 at BetMGM 3.    Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 7 catches +102 at Bet Rivers |
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09-28-23 | Temple +3.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 26-48 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Temple Owls vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, Oklahoma 7:30 EST, ESPN 8-Unit best bet on the Temple Owls plus the points, currently priced as 3.5-point underdogs in this AAC matchup. Owls head coach Stan Drayton has 16 returning starts from last year’s squad with 7 on offense including the quarterback and 9 on defense. Tulsa skipper Kevin Wilson is rebuilding with only four offensive and five defensive returning starters. Plus, he has an inexperienced quarterback. The Owl’s EJ Warner has completed just 54% of his passes and yet has thrown for 1000 passing yards. Despite Temple losing 41-7 last week to powerhouse Miami (Fla), Warner managed to throw for 240 yards including a touchdown. The Hurricane defense is more like a big breeze as compared to the strength and speed of the Miami Category 4 Hurricane defense. The predictive model shows us that Temple is 4-6 SU and 10-0 ATS when passing for 300 or more yards and scoring 27 or more points. |
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09-25-23 | Rams +2 v. Bengals | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
LA Rams vs Cincinnati Bengals 8:20 PM EST, Week 3 10-Unit best bet on the Rams plus the points. My subscribers won another 10-UNIT MAX Best bet on the Alabama Crimson Tide who defeated Ole Miss Saturday bringing the 4+ year record to 59-27 for 69% winning bets across all sports. NFL 10-UNIT MAX Bets have hit 73% ATS over the past four years and this also means that these plays lose 27% of the time ATS. Over the course a season in any sport, they have a high probability of putting a lot more cash in your pocket than not. These plays are 4-0 this season in CFB and the NFL. The following betting algorithm has done quite well producing a 20-9-2 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 1993. Betting on road dogs of not more than 7 points that won six or fewer games in the previous season and is playing on Monday Night Football. Â If the total in these games is priced at fewer than 50 points, these dogs have gone 17-7-2 ATS for 71% winnig bets since 1993. If our dog won just 5 or fewer games in the previous season, they have gone 7-2-2 ATS for 78% winning bets since 1993. Here is a second betting algorithm that has produced a 62-62-1 record and an 84-63 SATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. Â Â and the requirements are to bet on road dogs in the first 8 weeks of the regular season that are facing a foe coming off at least one consecutive loss. If our road dog is priced at three or fewer points, they have gone to earn an outstanding 31-16 SU record and 32-12-3 STS mark good for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons. From my predictive models, we are looking for the Rams to gain more than 100 rushing yards and to keep the Bengals under 100 rushing yards and for the Rams to have at least 33 minutes in top-of-possession. In games where they met or exceeded these measures has propelled them to a 11-1 SU record and a 9-2-1 ATS mark good for 90% winning bets over the past five seasons. When any favorite in the NFL has allowed these metrics as seen them produce a horrid 28-100 SU (22%), 15-113 ATS (12%) record and 0-7 SUATS on prime-time Monday Night Football. |
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09-24-23 | Chargers +100 v. Vikings | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
Chargers vs Vikings
 Betting on teams that are dogs or pick-em that are averaging 5.6 or more yards per play and coming off a game in which their opponent gained 400 or more total yards and now facing a foe with a struggling defense allowing 5.5 or more yards per play has earned an 84=27 record and a 70-41 ATS mark good for 64% winning bets since 2013. If the game is taking place during the weeks three and 5, the record gets even better at 21-10 SU and ATS for 68% winning bets since 2013. |
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09-24-23 | Chargers v. Vikings UNDER 53.5 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
Chargers vs Vikings  1:00 EST  8-Unit best Bet on the UNDER 54 points I also like betting 6-Units at 54 points or even 53.5 points and the look to add 2-Units at 56.5 points. I do not believe there will be an opportunity to get a live bet at a price of 60 or more points. However, use your intuition too, and if this game does get out of the gates faster on the scoreboard than expected I do believe that any total above 60 is an excellent opportunity. At a price of 54, each quarter needs to have 13/14 points scored and also implies that at least one team will score in each quarter.   |
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09-24-23 | Falcons +3.5 v. Lions | Top | 6-20 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 7 m | Show |
Falcons vs Lions  1:00 PM EST  8-Unit best bet on the Falcons plus the 3.5 points Betting on dogs in the first four weeks of the regular season that are priced as 6.5 or fewer points and facing a non-playoff team from last season that also won two or more of their last games in the previous season have gone 22-13 SU and 29-6 ATS for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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09-24-23 | Texans +8 v. Jaguars | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
Houston vs Jacksonville 1:00 EST Â EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
Betting on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are scoring an average of 28 or more points and did not make the playoffs in the previous season have earned a highly profitable 33-64-1 SU record averaging a +450 dog bet on the money line and a 64-30-4 STS record for 68% winning bets  over the past 10 seasons. Not one season posted a losing money result following the discipline of this betting system. Currently, the line is giving 7.5 points to the Texans and suggest placing 6-Units preflop at +7.5 points and look to get +10.5 points during the first half of action for the remining 2-Units. |
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09-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -6.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
Ole Miss vs Alabama 10-UNIT BEST BET on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points. With a total of 56 points and a line favoring Alabama by 7 points reflect s an Alabama 31.5 24.5 in Tuscaloosa. My predictive models show an 86% probability that Alabama will score at least 28 points and in past games in which they did score 28+ points they have gone 113-6 SU for 95% winners and 75-41-3 ASTS for 65% winning bets under head coach Nick Saban. Alabama is 15-1 SU and 12-4 ASTS for 75% under Saban in conference games and having suffered a loss on the season and scoring at least 28 points. If that loss was at home, he has gone 11-2 SU and 10-3 ASTS for 78% winning bets. He is also 18-9 STS for 67% winners coming off two or more ats losses. Mississippi is just 14-40 SU and 16-37-1 ATS for 30% when allowing 28 or more points and 11-35 SU and 14-31-1 ATS for 31% when facing an SEC foe since 2014. Alabama has issues on offense and there is no doubting it, but the market has overreacted in a significant fashion. More than two months ago, this game had Alabama lined as a 15.5-point favorite and now has plummeted to -7. Did everyone forget just how good this defense is this season. In each of the previous negative starts to the season in which Saban’s team have struggled out of the gate they did successfully make the adjustments and fixed the problems on both sides of the ball and came out with a performance that reminds of us of who the Tide are: winners of 10 National Champions, twice as many as any one else. They covered the spread by an average of 7 PPG in these situations and my predictive model is expecting the same outcome. |
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09-21-23 | Giants v. 49ers UNDER 43.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers 8-Unit Best bet Under the posted total of 44 points For LIVE Game betting, I will be taking 65% of my normal bet size and betting the ‘UNDER’ preflop and then looking for a faster than expected start in the first quarter and look to get 47.5 or more points betting the Under with the remaining 35% amount  Double-digit underdogs playing on a short week and on the road are 2-25 SU and 18-7-2 Under for 72% winning bets. I also like betting the Under Giants total of 16.5 points for no more than 2 units OR bet 1 unit preflop and then look to add the other unit at 21.5 points. Even under 20.5 points would represent an exceptional betting opportunity as well. The San Francisco 49ers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) are hosting the New York Giants (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) as 10.5-point favorites on Thursday Night Football set to kickoff at 8:20 PM EST. The Giants avoided the dreaded 0-2 start to their season by mounting a historic comeback, trailing by 21 points in the third quarter, to defeat the inept Arizona Cardinals. The Giants offense did not score a point until the third quarter after getting shutout 40-0 in Week 1 by the Dallas Cowboys. The Giants are 35-12 Under following a win by three or fewer points; 17-4 Under if coming off a road win of three or fewer points; 34-19 Under following a game in which they trailed by 14 or more points at any point in the game. My predictive models and research are expecting the Giants to gain fewer than 200 passing yards and have more FG made than TDs scored. In those situations, the Under has gone 23-6 for 80% winning bets. |
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09-21-23 | Georgia State v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 63 | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
Georgia State vs Coastal Carolina Betting on the Under with a total of 60 or more points where the home team is coming off two consecutive wins by 14 or more points in each game and with the game taking place in the first five weeks of the season has produced a 27-8-1 record for 77% winning bets since 2007. From the predictive model, we are expecting both teams to gain an average of 5.4 or fewer yards per play. IN past games in which Coastal was one of the teams in the matchup the Under has gone 7-1 for 88% winners and when Georgia State has been in the matchup the Under has gone 14-2-1 Under 85% winning bets. |
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09-18-23 | Saints v. Panthers +3.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 50 m | Show |
New Orleans vs Carolina 8-Unit Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers plus the points No more than a 3-Unit Parlay Under in this game and Under in the second game, which is Cleveland vs Pittsburgh Betting on underdogs of three or fewer points that are facing a conference foe that was not in the playoffs last season has earned a 32-22 SU record and 34-19-1 ATS mark good for 64% winners since 1992. |
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09-17-23 | Dolphins v. Patriots +2.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots 8:20 PM EST, Sunday Night Football 8-Unit best bet on the Patriots +2.5 points. The Dolphins and Chargers each recorded 30 first downs in their Week 1 matchup (which Miami won, 36-34). It was the eighth regular-season NFL game since 1960 in which each team had 30 or more first downs and only the sixth such non-overtime game in that time. Mac Jones had a career-high 54 pass attempts in the Patriots' Week 1 loss to the Eagles. Including postseason play, the Patriots are 0-8 in games in which Jones has thrown 38 or more passes (16-9 when he has fewer pass attempts). From the predictive model, we are looking for the Patriots to throw 30 or fewer passes and either gain more than 100 RY or gain more rushing yards than the Dolphins, and have no more than a single turnover. In past home games in which the Patriots met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to a highly profitable 37-1 SU and 30-7-1 ATS for 81% winning under Belichick. The Dolphins are 4-40 SU, 4-39-1 ATS when allowing these measures since 2000. Since 2000, the Patriots are 18=7 SU and 19-6 ATS when coming off a home loss in which they threw 35 or more passes under Belichick. |
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09-17-23 | Jets v. Cowboys OVER 38 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
New York Jets vs Dallas Cowboys 4:25 PM EST 8-Unit best bet on the OVER 38.5 points and is a valid bet up to 40 points Optional 5-Unit bet opportunity on the NY Jets plus 9.5 points If there is any game prop that if there is a pick six interception return, I like that a lot for pizza money Betting the Over with a team coming off a blowout win of 35 or more points over a divisional foe and had more rushing attempts than passing attempts has produced a 36-23 record good for 61% winning bets over since 1990. If the foe (Jets) is not from the same conference, the Over has gone 11-4 for 73% winning bets. The Jets went 2-7 over the first nine matchups against the Cowboys but have won their last three games against Dallas since 2011. The Jets have a perfect record in that time against just one other team, the Washington Commanders and a 3-0 record. The Jets beat the Bills on Monday despite a 10-point deficit in the third quarter. The last time the Jets had a comeback win when trailing at any point in the second half by at least 10 points during Week 1 was in 2011, a 14-point comeback against Dallas. In case you were wondering, teams that held their previous opponent to six or fewer points on 12 or more drives and now playing in a game with a total between 37.5 and 43.5 points are 31-37 SU and 21-43-4 ATS for 33%. That folks, means we are fading the Cowboys. |
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09-17-23 | 49ers v. Rams +7.5 | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
San Francisco vs LA Rams 4:05 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet on the Rams +7.5 points and a little sprinkle on the money line. The 49ers are just 5-20 ATS following a great defensive effort in which they allowed 50 or fewer rushing yards. They are 14-28-1 ATS when on the road and coming off a game in which they allowed fewer than 10 points. They are 23-42 ATS in road games following a win by 14 or more points. Teams playing in weeks 2 through 4 that are coming off a road win against a divisional foe are 40-14 SU for 74% and 34-19-1 ATS for 64% winning bets spanning the past 10 seasons. If our team is playing at home, the record moves higher to 33-9 SU for 79% winning bets and 28-13-1 ATS for 68% winning tickets over the past 10 seasons. Puka Nacua became the fifth player in the last 60 years to record 10+ receptions in his NFL debut, along with Sid Banks in 1964 (13), Keke Coutee in 2018 (11), Anquan Boldin in 2003 (10) and Earl Cooper in 1980 (10). The 49ers held the Steelers to only seven points in Week 1, generating five sacks and two interceptions. The only other season opener in the last 60 years that San Francisco's defense hit all these marks was in 2003 (7 pts allowed, 5 sacks, 3 INTs). The next game they faced the Rams on the road and lost that game 27-24. San Diego Chargers vs Tennessee Titans 8-Unit Best Bet OVER the posted total currently priced at 46.5 points Betting the Over in a game with a total of 45 or more points, with the road team coming off a game in which they and their foe both had 27 or more first downs has earned a 13-23 SU record for 36%, 14-22 ATS for 39%, and 26-10 Over for 72% winners. Plus, if the game is a divisional showdown, the record soars to an amazing 13-3 OVER for 81% winners since 2000. Tannehill posted his worst passer rating in Tennessee's 16-15 loss in New Orleans, which also marked just the third game of his career and first since his rookie season with three interceptions and no touchdown passes. The Chargers (0-1) have their own motivation. They haven't won in their past two trips to Nashville and are coming off a 36-34 loss to Miami where they gave up a league-high 466 yards passing. From the predictive model, we are looking for the Chargers and Titans to combine for more than 700 yards of offense. In past games when the Chargers and their foe gained over 700 total yards has seen the OVER go 127-39 for 77% and the Titans have seen the OVER go 98-26 for 79% winners and these are projections without Eckler in the game. |
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09-17-23 | Packers +3 v. Falcons | Top | 24-25 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons 8-Unit Best Bet on the Packers plus 2.5 points 1:00 PM EST Betting against non-playoff teams that won their last two games of the previous season and are favorites of not more than 6.5 points in weeks 2 through 4 have gone 7-15 SU and 4-18 ATS for 18% winners and failing to cover the spread by an average 6 points per game over the past 10 seasons. Falcons are 3-17 ATS in home games coming off a double-digit win. Green Bay (1-0) faces the Falcons (1-0) on Sunday, and their QB Jordan Love will be looking to build on the solid numbers he put up in a 38-20 victory at Chicago. He threw for 245 yards and three touchdowns in his second career start after backing up Rodgers the last three seasons. The Falcons find themselves in strange territory after opening the season with a 24-10 victory over Carolina. For the first time since the end of the 2017 season, Atlanta has a winning record. The Falcons are a young team that remains uncertain and in a rebuild mode. However, the Packers have the potential under Love, how got to study, watch, and learn from the departed Aaron Rogers and that showed immensely in Week 1. The Falcons are building around their own young quarterback, Desmond Ridder, who passed for only 115 yards against the Panthers. Most notably, top receiver Drake Young failed to make a catch and was targeted only once and look for the Packers defense to minimize his catches today. |
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09-17-23 | Chiefs v. Jaguars +3.5 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars 8-Unit Best Bet on the Jaguars plus the points Consider betting 6.5 units preflop on the Jaguars and then look to add 1.5 units if the Chiefs score a TD first or the betting line gets to +7.5 during the first half of action. Betting on home teams coming off a double-digit win to a divisional foe, total is 50 or more points and was in the playoffs in the previous season have produced a 34-6 SU record, 26-13-1 ATS for 67% winning bets since 1990. Jags head coach Pederson is a remarkable 15-4 ATS as a home dog for his career and 13-4 ATS as a home dog of 6.5 or fewer points for his career. Supporting a sprinkle on the money line is the fact that teams coming off a road win against a divisional foe in the first four weeks of the regular season have gone 40-14 SU, and 34-19-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 10 years. No Super Bowl winning team has started out the following season 0-2 since the 1999 Denver Broncos, who were in rebuild mode after their legendary QB John Elway retired. The Chiefs fell to the Lions in Week 1, making them the second defending champions since 2000 to lose their season opener to a team that missed the playoffs the previous year. The 2012 Giants lost to the Cowboys in their season opener after winning Super Bowl XLVI. The Giants went on to a dismal 9-7 record, 7-8-1 ATS in 2012. The Jaguars have a great coach in Doug Pederson, who won the 2017 Super Bowl as the herd coach of the Eagles and their roster is built to make a run for the AFC Championship game. |
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