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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-01-15 | Michigan State +3 v. Baylor | Top | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 2 h 7 m | Show |
25* graded play on Michigan State as they take on Baylor in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic set to start at 12:30 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that MSU will win this game. Â There is certainly conclusive projections from the SIM that MSU will score 28 or more points. In past games, they are a very strong 8-2 ATS this season and 16-3 ATS L3 seasons when they score 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 54-20 mark for 73% winners and has made 35.1 units/unit wagered since 1992. This system has gone 8-1 using the money line and made 7.2 units/unit wagered this season. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MICHIGAN ST) an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 21 and 28 PPG and after allowing 14 points or less last game. Here is a second system working against Baylor and has gone 35-14 using the money line for 71.4% winners and has made 23.2 units/unit wagered since 2004. Play against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (BAYLOR) that are excellent rushing teams averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game and after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Getting back to the projections and now using the money line we see that MSU is a near-perfect 10-1 against the money line (+9.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; Â 28-11 against the money line (+20.6 Units) when they gain 400 to 450 total yards since 1992. Take Michigan State. |
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12-31-14 | Boise State +3 v. Arizona | Top | 38-30 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
25* graded play on Boise State as they take on Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl set to start at 4:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Boise State will win this game. The return on investment (ROI) is not validated by the current lines. If the line moves to 3 1/2 and a money line above 145, then making a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line is validated. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-19 ATS mark for 72% winners since 2008. Play on any team (ARIZONA) off a loss against a conference rival and is now facing an opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more. 57% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. I see Boise State scoring at least 28 points in this game. Arizona is just 2-4 ATS this season, 5-15 ATS L3 seasons, and 22-86 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points. Further, they are money burning 2-6 ATS L3 seasons and 12-26 ATS since 1992 when allowing 400 to 450 offensive yards. Arizona HC Rodriguez is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games facing high-powered offensive teams scoring 37 or more points/game in all games in his coaching career;  1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. Boise's offense is going to exploit several weaknesses in the Arizona defense. Boise has the ground attack that will wear down the Arizona defensive front and setup excellent play action opportunities in man coverage. Arizona ranks a suspect 66th in the nation allowing 171 rushing yards per game and 120th allowing 278 passing yards per game. Boise's relentless and well balanced offense will dominate the game. Take Boise State. |
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12-31-14 | Ole Miss +3.5 v. TCU | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
25* graded play on Mississippi as they take on TCU in the Chick-Fil-a Bowl set to start at 12:30 PM ET. This game is being played in the Georgia Dome at Atlanta. I also like the 'under' for a 10* play and then consider adding a 5* parlay using the money line and the 'under'. The simulator shows a high probability that Mississippi will win this game. Much has been made about the so-called chip on the shoulder that TCU has after they feel they were snubbed by Ohio State from playing the 4-team playoff format. Well, my research clearly shows that after this game, they will have no gripe whatsoever. I further believe that such a chip can actually work against a team in this type of situation. Far too much attention and focus is being made of the snub and the need to blowout Mississippi to prove their self-worth, that in the end the focus and attention to the execution of each play is lost. Supporting the 'under' play is a proven system posting a 46-16 mark for 74% winners since 2008. 55% of these plays went 'under' the total by at least 7 points. Play 'under' with all teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (OLE MISS) in a game involving two dominant teams outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG in non-conference games. Further, my analysis and SIM projections show a very high probability that Mississippi will score at least 28 points and that TCU is unlikely to exceed that mark. Mississippi is 6-2 ATS this season and 19-5 ATS L3 seasons when they have scored 28 or more points. Further, they are a perfect 5-0 ATS L3 seasons when they have gained 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. There is a major difference with the SOS played by these two teams and Mississippi has enjoyed the additional time off after playing the brutal West Division of the SEC Conference. TCU has not played a defense like Mississippi that has superior speed, quickness, gap discipline, and athleticism than any other team they faced. You simply cannot simulate game speed in preparation for the Mississippi defense. Freeze is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when facing excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. as the coach of Mississippi; 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in games played on turf; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off 2 or more consecutive unders; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. Take Mississippi. |
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12-30-14 | Notre Dame +8.5 v. LSU | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 2 h 44 m | Show |
25* graded play on Notre Dame as they take on LSU in the Music City Bowl set to start at 3:00 PM ET, December 30, 2014. The simulator shows a high probability that ND will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. I also like making this a combination wager by playing a 21.5* amount on the line and a 3.5* amount using the money line. I like the change to Malik Zaire as it will undoubtedly lead to greater ball security and more mobility in the picket. I also think the Pistol can be un successfully as well. LSU boasts one of the best defenses in the nation in the majority of statistical measurements. However, the times they were torched it was in the vertical passing game that also served to open up the middle of the field for power running between the tackles and quick slants and 'ins' to TE. This will make an offense that ranked 29th with a 0.441 points-per-play ratio and 16th in passing yards per game significantly more efficient. LSU has struggled on offense and is the dominant reason they did not contend late into the season for a possible SEC Championship berth. They played in the very deep and talented West Division, but at the end of the day it was an offense that ranked 85th in scoring offense and 90th in total offensive production that has led them to the Music City Bowl. Notre Dame has been setting all-time records in scoring and yards allowed in their recent games. Yet, with all of this time to prepare I do see the Notre Dame defense being highly successful against a woeful LSU offense. Moreover, they will be prepared as well for the Les Miles "trickery plays''. The following game situations support my expectations for the outcome of this game. Notre Dame is a very strong 10-2 against the money line (+9.0 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. Take Notre Dame. |
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12-29-14 | West Virginia v. Texas A&M +2 | Top | 37-45 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Texas A&M Aggies as they take on the West Virginia Mountaineers in the Liberty Bowl set to start at 2:00 PM ET. This game is being played at the Liberty Memorial Stadium in Memphis, TN. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas A&M will win this game. I like making this a combination wager using an 18* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line. The following game situations match my expectations for this game.  WVU is just  2-9 against the money line (-11.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 13-30 against the money line (-27.2 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points since 1992; 5-18 against the money line (-31.4 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992; Texas A&M is a solid 13-3 against the money line (+18.3 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt since 1992; 15-3 against the money line (+12.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 6-1 against the money line (+6.8 Units) in road games when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons;  12-3 against the money line (+14.0 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992. Further, the added rest for West Virginia has not ended up being a positive factor knowing they are an imperfect 0-5 against the money line (-9.4 Units) after a bye week(s) over the last three seasons. Holgorsen is 2-6 against the money line (-14.4 Units) after a bye week as the coach of WVU. In media outlets, the focus has been on the apparent weakness in the A&M defense. Yet, they are not nearly as porr a unit as they would lend you to believe. In fact, they rank 68th in the nation with a 0.376 points-per-play ratio and 30th in opponent red zone scoring. What is confirms is that A&M is a bend and don't break type of defense. They can allow a ton of yards between the 20's, but when in the red zone, the defense has consistent scheme in keeping teams from getting into the end zone. What is even more eye-pooping is that WVU ranks 70th in the nation with a 0.381 points-per-play allowed and 79th in passing yards allowed per game (294). A&M loves to throw the ball and they rank 14th averaging 298 passing yards per game. So, I strongly believe it will be the West Virginia defense that will be under immense pressure to keep A&M from scoring points on almost every drive. Take the Aggies. |
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12-28-14 | Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
50* graded play on the Cincinnati Bengals they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in the battle for the AFC North Division with a wide array of playoff implications involved.  I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 40* play using the line and a 10* play using the Money Line. The simulator shows a high probability that Cincy will win this game. I am going to look first at he technical considerations backing the Bengals. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 138-66 ATS mark for 68% winners using the money line since 2008. Play on any team using the money line (CINCINNATI) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games and is a strong team winning 60 to 75% or more of their games with the current game taking place in the second half of the season. This system has gone a strong 35-15 making 19 units/unit wagered this season. Bengals are on a perfect 6-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 2 seasons. Lewis is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game as the coach of he Bengals. Conversely, Tomlin has been a money burning 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive 'unders' as the coach of the Steelers. Brown is having a craeer year and leads all WR in the majority of statistical categories. However, I belevie that the Bengasl have an elite CB in Adam Jones that can contain him. Further, Bengals have arguably one of the best safeties in the NFL with George Iloka. That duo can provide varied looks to disguise coverage and pressure schemes. Granted, the Bengals secondary has been torched at times this season, but in large part because of a lack of pass rush. However, in recent weeks the unit has graded out some of their best efforts led by Geno Atkins, who has a team-high in QB hurries (32). LB Carlos Dunlap will be the man to watch in blitz schemes as he leads the team with 9 QN sacks and adds 32 QB hurries and 19 QB hits.Look for LB Vincent Rey to platoon with other LB and play mostly on early downs and not at all on true passing downs. He has been weak in pass coverage, but leads the team with 84 tackles and 21 assists. Also of significant note, is that I strongly believe it is NOT necessary for Jones to shadow Brown for the entire game. Din't be surprised if other DB Reggie Nelson gets lined up to cover Brown as he actually has the highest pass coverage grade on the team. Pittsburgh defense is certainly NOT the 'steel curtain' and are very vulnerable to the Bengals ground attack in this matchup. The Steeler defensive front is led by Cameron Heyward, who has a tremendous season, but the rest of the group has been largely inconsistent with their play. Steelers are solid in pass rush situations, but are actually quite weak in run stop and pass coverage plays. Dalton will get rid of the ball quickly in long down-and-distance situations. Yet, with the ground game working at a high level, he will enjoy play action with extra time to target Green, who will be in man coverage. As with many games, the game is won in the trenches and I clearly see the Bengals having the overall edge. |
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12-28-14 | Detroit Lions +9 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they take on the Green Bay Packers in a major NFC North showdown set to start at 4:25 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that Detroit will lose this game by fewer than 8 points and has a great shot at winning the game. I like making this a combination wager using the line and money line comprised of a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the Money Line. I know it has been 23 years since Detroit had success in Lambeau, but this is this year and this Lions team is not your father's Lions team of seasons past. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 49-23 ATS mark for 68% winners since 2008. Play on any team (DETROIT) that is a strong defensive team allowing between 14 and 18 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 PPG and after 8+ games have been played in the regular season. Â Here is an incredible system supporting the upset and has gone 41-10 for 81% winners since 2008. Play on any team using the money line (DETROIT) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread and is a strong team winning 60% or more of their games and with the current game taking place in the second half of the season. Rogers is certainly a MVP candidate, but he only criticisms against him is that he has truly struggled against elite defenses, especially those that run 4-3 base with excellent defensive linemen. Rogers struggled against Seattle in Week 1, Detroit Week 3, and posed arguably his worst graded game of his career at Buffalo Week 15. This will be the first game this season where he is at home facing a truly elite defense. The Lions defense is anchored (literally) by DT Ndamukong Suh, who if not for his poor penalties, would be graded as the best DT in the game by a wide margin. Detroit ranks second-best behind only Denver in overall defensive efficiency. Second only behind the Jets in defensive run stop efficiency. So, I do not see any Green Bay ground attack working today and this will force Rogers to win the game with his arm. Of course, he is fully capable of that feat, but not against the defensive front of the Lions who will get pressure on him without the help of constant blitz packages. LB DeAndre Levy will have a huge day. He leads the team with 114 tackles and 75 stops and he will be able to shoot gaps with Suh being double teamed most of the game. Now, on the offensive side of the ball, the Lions have a great opportunity to run the ball early and then use play action to Johnson to stretch the GB defense further over the course of the game. This will also directly give Detroit a significant edge in TOP serving to keep Rogers off the field and to minimize his scoring chances. Take the Detroit Lions. |
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12-28-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Baltimore Ravens -13 | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 8 m | Show |
The Ravens got good news yesterday with three players being selected to the Pro Bowl and earning All-Pro status seasons. Yet, one was extraordinarily special as their first round draft pick C.J. Mosley became the first rookie in Ravens franchise history to earn the All-Pro award. His teammate LB Elvin Dumerville earned his fourth All-Pro award. Ravens rank third-best in overall defense efficiency in large part because of the All-Pro play of their linebackers. In addition to Dumerville, the Ravens have two other standout OLB in Suggs and McPhee. Dumerville had a league-high with 19 QB sacks at his position. yet, McPhee led the team with 29 QB hurries and Suggs was second on the team with sacks (13 and hurries (29). Despite the All-Pro award, fellow teammate Daryl Smith is actually the best coverage LB. So, you can easily see how strong and how deep this defensive unit has become this season. Manziel has been horrid at the NFL level and Hoyer will take over the controls in this game. Cleveland is in disarray to say the least and given the magnitude of the situation, I simply see the Ravens dominating the LOS, forcing turnovers, and creating short filed scoring situations for their offense. Ravens QB Flacco had a horrid game last week in Houston, but rarely does he had back-to-back clunkers. He is smart and will not make mistakes that can cost his team field position in this matchup. Take the Ravens. |
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12-28-14 | Dallas Cowboys v. Washington Redskins +6 | Top | 44-17 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 1 m | Show |
I like Washington this week as they host Dallas in an NFC Divisional Matchup set to start at 1:00 PM ET. This game essentially means nothing to Dallas and their current No. 3 seeding as the NFC Champion - unless Detroit and Green Bay end in a tie. I won't delve into the specifics of what happens in the event of a tie for the NFC North Division crown, but it is certainly very unlikely. Further complicating the issue is that game starts at 4:25 PM ET and this one starts at 1:00 PM ET. So, this play is based on Dallas starters playing all four quarters and not that I expect any Dallas starters to be rested. That will obviously aid our cause. You may recall I had Washington and predicted they would win the game over Philadelphia Last week. For much of the same reasons, I certainly see Washington staying with in the number. To exploit the possible upset win, I suggest playing a 20* play using the line and a 5* play using the Money Line. This is common in my work over the years and simply maximizes the total rate of return (ROI) of your investment in Washington. WR DeSean Jackson torched his former team last week and it was more than just his box line. He serves to stretch the defense vertically given his elite speed and excellent deep ball catching skills. CB Fletcher was no match for the speed of Jackson. This was most evident when in man coverage and Fletcher playing nearly 10 yards off the LOS, Jackson went on a go-route and blew by him with ease and creating enormous separation and a 55-yard completion with less than 2:00 minute left in the third quarter. Although Dallas' CB are vastly superior to that of the Eagles, respect must be paid to Jackson and his vertical threat. Redskins Kerrigan had one of his best games of the season with an amazing 10 QB pressures on Sanchez. I believe he will be a force again this week. Getting pressure on any QB at the NFL level is a sure way to disrupt the rhythm of any offense.  Despite all of the negative media attention on RG III, he does rank third best in the NFL with a 79% accuracy percentage. This measure includes all completed passes and dropped ones as well. Last week, he was largely accurate on short, intermediate, and deep throws. Technically speaking, Dallas is just 7-22 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three out of their last four games since 1992; 6-22 ATS (-18.2 Units) in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game since 1992; 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after a win by 28 or more points since 1992. Garrett is a miserable money burning Garrett is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after having won five or six out of their last seven games as the coach of the Cowboys. Here is a super system that has gone 28-7 ATS for 80% winners since 1983.  Play against road favorites (DALLAS) that are above average defensive teams allowing between 18 and 23 PPG) and is now facing a struggling defensive team allowing between 23 and 27 PPG and after allowing nine points or less last game. 45% of the game splayed covered the spread by 7 or more points. Over the past five seasons, this system has gone a sparkling 7-1 ATS. Washington catches Dallas in a definite let-down situation after the huge recent wins and NFC East clinching blowout winner over the Colts. I expect RGIII to have another solid game adding even more confusion to the Washington off-season plans. |
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12-27-14 | Nebraska +7.5 v. USC | Top | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Nebraska Cornhuskers as they take on USC in the Holiday Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET. This game is being played in Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, CA.  The simulator shows a high probability that Nebraska will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 18-13 mark, BUT making 25 units/unit wagered using the MONEY LINE since 2004. The average play for this system has been a very impressive +211 DOG. Play on underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (NEBRASKA) off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival and is now facing an opponent off a home blowout win by 28 points or more. I am seeing lines starting at +225 and going as high as +250 for this play. Further, I am confident that Nebraska will score 28 or more points. In past games, USC is a miserable 1-4 ATS this season, 3-12 ATS the L3 seasons, and 15-61 ATS since 1992 when they have yielded 28 or more points. When Nebraska gets the offense rolling and have scored at least 28 in past games, they are 6-3 ATS this season and 112-58 ATS since 1992. Take Nebraska. |
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12-27-14 | Miami (Fla) -3.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Miami Hurricanes as they take on the South Carolina Gamecocks in a great matchup of major Conferences set to to place in the Independence Bowl beginning at 3:30 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will win this game by 6 points. Both teams have played a difficult schedule so the rankings and stat comparisons are quite valid. The biggest difference in this game will be the Miami defense that ranks 18th in yards per play allowed and 51st in points-per-play allowed. They have been very strong against the pass this season and this matches up quite well to SC offensive scheme under HC Spurrier. Canes rank 15th allowing just 6.1 yards per pass and 17th allowing 193 passing yards per game. Miami will force far more 3-and-outs and will enjoy a major advantage in TOP. The SC defense just will not be able to stand up to the constant pounding by Miami and the extended periods of time on the field. I also believe that Miami will attack the middle of the field immediately after forcing SC in a 3-and-out or short duration drive. This undoubtedly will wear the SC defense down gradually as the game progresses. I see Miami scoring at least 28 points. In the past they are 15-6 ATS L3 seasons and 92-46 ATS since 1992 when scoring 28 or more points. SC is a money burning 2-5 ATS this season, 2-10 ATS the L3 seasons, and 20-67 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points. Take the Hurricanes. |
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12-27-14 | Duke +7.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 31-36 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
25* graded play on Duke as they take on Arizona State in the Sun Bowl taking place at Sun Bowl Stadium in ElPaso Texas and set to start Saturday at 2:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Duke will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-14 ATS mark for 75% winners since 1992. It has gone 3-1 ATS this season. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DUKE) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival and now facing an opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more. The following game situations match the projections I see for this game. Duke is a very solid 9-2 against the money line (+12.2 Units) when they allow 150 to 200 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons; 8-2 against the money line (+7.4 Units) when they rush for 150 to 200 yards over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 against the money line (+11.0 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons; 8-15 against the money line (-14.8 Units) when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt since 1992; 20-24 against the money line (-20.3 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards since 1992. ASU has had a long history of struggling against strong running teams like Duke. They have posted a miserable 11-36 against the money line (-29.4 Units) en facing good rushing teams averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992. The strong ground attack is going to be a dominant reason Duke wins this game. The strong ground game then sets up play action where ASU has struggled in man coverage, especially in the middle of the field in underneath or bracket coverage. Duke is a very smart football team as evidenced by ranking 20th best in the nation throwing an INT on only 1.76% of plays and ranking 6th allowing a QB sack on just 3.17% of plays. Take Duke. |
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12-26-14 | North Carolina State +2.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 58 h 0 m | Show |
50* graded play on the NC State as they take on UCF in the St. Petersburg Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET, December 26, 2014. NC State played a vastly more difficult schedule this season and I strongly believe their strong ground attack will dominate the UCF defense throughout this game. Â NC State ground attack ranks 21st in the nation gaining 5.2 yards per attempt and 37th gaining 201 yards per game. Shadrach Thorton leads the team with 147 attempts, 811 rushing yards, and 9 TD. Wolf Pack QB is second with 110 attempts and 498 yards and 3 TD. Although not spectacular season stats, they have gained 362 rushing yards in a win over Wake Forest and 388 yards in their last game against state-rival UNC. This has been a dramatic shift in their offensive schemes and will be quite difficult for UCF to fully prepare for in this matchup. Further, the UNC air attack has strong enough that UCF must respect the presence of play action as well. Bo Hones leads the team with 42 receptions and 537 receiving yards. Yet, it is TE David Grinnage, who I believe will have a big day off of these play action pass situations. He is an excellent run blocker, BUT at 6-5 and 270 pounds is a huge target in open space. He has 24 grabs and 5 TD on the season. The simulator shows a high probability that NC State will win this game by 10 or more points. The public has steadily bet UCF and I do see the possibility of this climbing from a current level of 2 points to possibly 3 by game time. Normally, I would suggest a combination wager with a DOG. However, unless the line climbs to 3 1/2 the combination wager does not produce enough (ROI) to be valid. So, if it does get to 3 1/2 or higher, then a combination wager using a 40* play on the line and a 10* play using the money line would be valid. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-8 mark using the Money Line for 77% winners since 1992. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NC STATE) with a solid offense gaining between 390 to 440 YPG and is now facing an average offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG and after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game. We already know NC State had a huge game winning 35-7 over rival UNC and easily covered as a 6 1/2 point dogs. Take North Carolina State. |
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12-24-14 | Central Michigan +4 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 48-49 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
25* graded play Central Michigan as they take on Western Kentucky in the Bahamas Bowl set to start at Noon Christmas Eve. I want to take this moment to wish every the best Christmas possible and best wishes for the New Year. I greatly appreciate your loyal support of my plays as it obviously has supported my family over the 18 years I have been here on Vegas Experts. The simulator shows a high probability that CMU will win this game. The public is starting to bet WKU and I believe the line will go to 3 1/2 points. This is important as at that level a combination wager produces a very good return on investment (ROI). So, if you are able to get 3 1/2 , the consider making a 20* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. CMU has some very strong historical trends backing them. They are a solid 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. since 1992; Â 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) facing poor rushing defenses allowing >=200 rushing yards/game over the last three seasons; Â 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) facing weaker defensive teams allowing >=6.25 yards/play over the last three seasons. CMU is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons. Based on the matchup projections I see CMU gaining at least 5.5 yards per play. In games played where they have attained this benchmark they are a solid 2-0 ATS this season and 6-1 ATS the L3 seasons. I also believe that CMU will score 28 or more points. They are a quite strong 12-5 against the money line (+10.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last three seasons. Take Central Michigan. |
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12-23-14 | Northern Illinois v. Marshall -10 | Top | 23-52 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
25* graded play on Marshall as they take on Northern Illinois in the Boca Raton Bowl at FAU Stadium  set to start at 6:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Marshall will win this game by 14 or more points. The following game situations match the projections for the outcome I see in this matchup. Marshall is 5-1 ATS L3 seasons when they allow 5.5 to 6.0 net passing yards; 5-1 ATS L3 seasons when they gain 300 or more rushing yards; 9-2 ATS L3 seasons when they rush for more than 6.0 yards per attempt; 13-4 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play; 12-3 ATS L3 seasons when they outgained their opponent by 2.0 or more yards per play. Northern Illinois is just 2-9 ATS L3 seasons when they have allowed 28 or more points. On the injury front, the news that Marshall RB Devon Johnson has been upgraded to probable is a significant plus for them. SOS is nearly equal with NIU having only a modest tougher schedule. So, the statistical rankings are comparable and show Marshall to be a vastly superior team. Marshall ranks 5th in scoring offense while NIU ranks 47th and more than 14 points less per game. The Marshall defense ranks 24th allowing 22 PPG while NIU defense ranks 46th allowing 25.3 PPG. NIU runs the ball 63% of the time, which is the 16th highest in the nation. They rank 16th in rushing yards, 13th in rushes per game (47), 24th in yards per rush (5.1). Although NIU doesn't pass that often, when they do they connect on a 60% completion percentage. This combo of run/pass is what has made NIU a very tough to beat in their conference. However, Marshall has elite coverage CB and LB, who also maintain excellent gap discipline. This combo will most assuredly disrupt NIU offense and their ability to move the chains and produce drives ending in scores. This game will not be about how many sacks or interceptions Marshall produces, but rather how many times they force NIU into third and long situations. Take Marshall. |
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12-22-14 | Denver Broncos -3 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 28-37 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
50* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in a major AFC showdown set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The stakes are very high for both teams as they look to solidify their best possible playoff position. Looks to be in favor of the Broncos though as the simulator shows a high probability that they will win this game by 8 or more points. Here are some simple game situations that support the Bengals in this matchup. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-25 ATS mark since 1983. Play on favorites (DENVER) off a win against a division rival and playing the next game on Monday night. This system has covered the spread by 7 or more points in 50% of all of the plays made based on the criteria of the system. The following expectations I have for the outcome of this game match the game situations. Bengals are a miserable 1-5 ATS L3 seasons when they have allowed 6.0 or more yards per play; 11-25 ATS when they have been outgained by 1.0 to 1.5 yards per play since 1992. Denver is 6-2 ATS this season and 13-4 L3 seasons when they have allowed 15 to 21 points; 3-0 ATS this season and 11-3 ATS L3 seasons when they have allowed 150 to 200 net passing yards; 8-1 ATS when the rush for 4.0 to 4.5 rushing yards in games played over the L3 seasons; 19-7 ATS L3 seasons when they have gained more than 400 offensive yards. Denver possesses the fifth best offensive grade behind leading Dallas, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore. This is a measure of a teams overall offensive efficiency. In the last four weeks the Broncos have gone to the run game behind a very talented RB in Anderson and it has had a negative impact on manning's Personal stats. Yet, he could care less about that and all about the team getting to the Super Bowl. This has directly led to an improved TOP and the defense has responded in kind. Of the teams mentioned above, the Broncos are the only team with solid positive grades on overall defensive efficiency. So, Manning calls his own plays at the LOS and the emergence of the ground attack has led to the entire Bronco team getting significantly better. In fact, the Denver defense ranks best in overall defensive efficiency led by a vastly under rated run defense. The inability of the Bengals to establish a ground attack tonight will be a dominant reason the Broncos win this game. Take Denver. |
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12-22-14 | BYU v. Memphis OVER 55.5 | Top | 48-55 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
25* graded play on 'OVER" the posted total of 56 points in the Miami Beach Bowl set to start at 2:00 PM ET, Monday December 22, 2014. The simulator shows a high probability that more than 60 points will be scored in this game. Memphis has been a solid money making 13-4 OVER (+8.6 Units) after playing two straight conference games over the last three seasons. I see both teams gaining between 350 and 400 offensive yards in this matchup. In past games over the L3 seasons, this has been solid news for players on the 'over'. Memphis is 6-1 'over when they gain this range of yards and are also 4-1 when they allow this range of yards in games played over the last three seasons. Memphis has played some stellar defense over the second part of the season not allowing more than 20 points in six straight games all wins. However, those opponents are not nearly as a strong offensively as BYU has been this season. I see many matchup advantages for BYU to exploit in a balanced offensive attack. BYU ranks 42nd gaining 184.2 rushing yards per game and 27th in passing yards per game this season. They have run the ball 50.72% of all plays and passed 49.28% again reflecting the balanced attack that will make it difficult for Memphis to contain. BYU also has completed 60.44% of their passes and thrive on short to intermediate throws allowing the receiver to catch the ball in space and make plays. Memphis ranks 45th gaining 181.7 rushing yards per game and 61st gaining 230 passing yards per game. They are a run first offense with 57.55% of plays being on the ground. This sets up play action to exploit man coverage in vertical routes. I see this as an evenly matched game seesawing back and forth on the scoreboard. Take the 'OVER'Â |
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12-21-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +13 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 12 m | Show |
25* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Green Bay in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Tampa Bay will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I played against the Packers last week and also correctly called the upset win by Buffalo. The probability of a Bucs upset is far less likely than that presented in the Buffalo game, BUT adding a 3* play using the Money Line is an excellent 'just in case' bet. It is hard to believe that Green Bay is the 6th team and last playoff team 'IN' right now. They and several other teams were given a Christmas gift by the Eagles in their loss (25* winner) to Washington. Yet, they still need to win to ensure they earn a playoff berth today. Detroit is NFC North leader (Wins tie break over Green Bay based on head-to-head win percentage.) and enjoys tie break over Dallas based on best win percentage in conference games. Rogers will have a better game than last week's anomaly, but it is the Tampa offense that I believe could have one of their best games of the season. Packers defense ranks 27th allowing 128 rushing yards per game, 16th  allowing 238 passing yards, and just 26th in sack percentage at 6.05%. Look for Mike Evans to continue his stellar rookie season where he  has posted a position-leading 7 TD on deep thrown passes this season. Stretching the Packers defense has been the offensive template needed to defeat them in recent weeks. Take the Bucs. |
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12-20-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins +9 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 44 m | Show |
I like the Washington Redskins plus the points in their NFC East matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles set to start Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. The Eagles loss at home to Dallas was essentially a double loss. They lost the Division lead to the Cowboys and now stand on the outside of the playoffs looking in at them. They do not possess one tie-breaker of the current playoff teams should there be a time at the end of the season. Obviously a loss here would almost seal their unfortunate fate of not being the post season. In the first time against Washington, there was a blind side hit on QB Nick Foles that sparked a fourth quarter brawl. The media would lead you to believe that this event is a highly motivating factor for the Eagles to seek revenge and simply blow the Redskins out. The better point here is that the Eagles have played TWO very physical games against Seattle and Dallas and I question how much fuel is left in the tank for this game. Further, being that is the dysfunctional Redskin as the opponent is going to make it very difficult for the coaching staff to get their units fully focused. The Eagles certainly know their fate lies in winning, but getting the job done could be a monumental task in Landover, MD. The Eagles defense has held up well this season, but they are now showing immense fatigue in the second 30-minutes of recent games. The fact is that the Eagles offense when working scores quickly and their drives to not result in a time-of-possession edge. This has forced the Eagles defense to be on the field far more than the majority of other units in the NFL. The Eagles rank dead last in the NFL with the Eagles defense playing better than 56% of the time. Overall, the Eagles rank 8th in my overall defensive rankings. However, that is in large part because of the early season success on special teams. That advantage as been all, but eliminated by opponents, who simply know to prepare for those aggressive plays. Factoring out that special team impact, the Eagles grade out at number 26th in the NFL. I also cannot trust the Eagles offense that has not played well in the last two weeks against elite opponents. Granted, Washington's pass defense is one of the worst, but they offset that with a strong pass rush. As we saw the in last two games, getting into Sanchez's face was a critical part in his failure to have time to throw the ball to the correct WR. Washington has their own elite DE in Jason Hatcher, who grades 8th best in his position. He ranks third-best in sacks and QB hurries. He also grades second best in defending the run. The Eagles will most assuredly use a TE in starter Ertz or back-up Celek to help block him on pass situations. That added protection will give Sanchez a bit more time, but it eliminates another target for pass routes. This takes pressure of the Washington secondary and will allow them to play more bracket coverage than man coverage. In sum, this scheme will make it more difficult for Sanchez to make throws and move the chains. The Eagles offense attacks the perimeter of defenses and spreads them out across the field. This in turn opens up the inside of the field for easy run and catch passes. However, Washington has some of the best OLB in the NFL led by Kerrigan, Murphy, and Orakpo. Kerrigan is second at his position with 38 QB hurries and has added 12 sacks. All three grade positive for the season and are fully able to disrupt the timing of the Eagles WR with solid coverage. Former Eagle WR and now No. 1 Washington WR DeSean Jackson is obviously looking to have a big game. Yet, he brings a whole lot more to this matchup that will not show in the box score. His ability to stretch the field opens up more room in the middle of the field and also will enable Alfred Morris to have a strong day between the tackles. He is averaging a strong7.5 yards after the catch. The Eagle have been prone to missed tackles in recent weeks. This is a significant advantage for Washington to get the ball to Jackson in space where he can use his athleticism to make plays down the field. Looking at the technical side of this matchup we see that the Eagles have been a money burning  3-12 ATS in road games when facing struggling teams that are outscored by 6+ points per game in games played only in the second half of each season since 1992. Redskins are a very strong 17-4 ATS facing excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games of each season since 1992. Home losses are tough for the majority of the NFL teams to overcome and the Eagles are no different sporting an imperfect 0-6 ATS off a home loss by 10 or more points over the last three seasons. The following game situations match my projections for this game. Eagles are just 4-14 ATS over the last three seasons when they have allowed 6.0 or more yards per play; 4-11 ATS over the last three seasons when they have allowed 22 to 28 points. Take the Washington Redskins. |
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12-20-14 | Nevada -1 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 3-16 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Nevada Wolf Pack as they take on Ul-Lafayette in the first scheduled bowl game of the 2014-2015 post season set to start at 11:00 AM. The simulator shows a high probability that Nevada will win this game by four or more points. The following game situations match my projections for the outcomes within this game. Nevada is a perfect 5-0 ATS L3 seasons when they have allowed 5.0 to 5.5 yards per play; 12-2 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 5.5 to 6.0 net passing yards. Further, Nevada is the third best team in the nation in red zone scoring at 94%. ULL runs the ball far more than they pass it. Their ground attack ranks 25th gaining 228 rushing yards per game. Nevada's defensive personnel are much better than advertised at run stop and many of the players have positive grades over several of the recent games. Last, Nevada played a monumentally more difficult schedule this season. When adjusting for the SOS, Nevada is significantly better on both sides of the ball. The biggest advantage is on offense with their passing attack, especially in play action. Nevada quarterback Cody Fajardo has quietly been one of the most dynamic players in college football over the past couple of seasons. He has a 123 QBR and has completed 60% of his passes for 2370 yards and 18 TD. He has spread the ball around significantly led by Jerico Richardson (53, 626), Hasaan Henderson (45, 579), Richy Turner (57, 537), and TE Jared Gipson (32, 282). LLU cannot double team any one of these receivers as Fajardo will check off the double team and find the best target. Take Nevada. |
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12-18-14 | Tennessee Titans v. Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Jacksonville Jaguars as they host the Tennessee Titans in NFL Thursday Night FB action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. Not sure, who in the NFL scheduling department came up with this matchup as even before the season started the expectations of these two teams was quite limited. Bortles had his second best career start in the first meeting of these two teams. In fact, he has career-best QB rating of 89 and completions with 32. The Tennessee secondary is a complete mess. Jason McCourty has taken a step back, already charged with allowing over 1,000 receiving yards. Blidi Wreh-Wilson hasn’t been any better, but a trip to I.R. means that Coty Sensabaugh will be seeing full-time duty yet again this week. Sensabaugh has held up reasonably well in coverage, though it has to be concerning that he’s missed nine tackles on the season and that over half of the receiving yardage he’s allowed has been after the catch. JAX has struggled to run the ball, but the Tennessee defensive front has made second and third string RB look like All-Pro candidates. Running the ball with Gerhart will set up Bortles in play action to complete passes in man coverage. Further, Bortles will enjoy more opportunity to extend plays with his legs tonight. For the fantasy player looking for that diamond in the rough, Marquis Lee is set for a huge night. Based on the projections the following game situations are validated. In past games over the L3 seasons, Tennessee is 1-5 ATS this season and 2-11 ATS L3 seasons when they have gained between 300 and 350 offensive yards. Whisenhunt is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest as the coach of the Titans; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) facing poor passing defenses allowing 235 or more passing yards/game; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) facing poor defensive teams allowing >=350 yards/game. Take Jacksonville. |
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12-14-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks -9.5 | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Seattle Seahawks as they host the San Francisco 49ers in NFC West Divisional matchup set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game by 13 or more points. The Harbaugh era is all but done in SF and all that remains is the completion of the remaining three games. The locker room is not in good shape to say the least and one can only wonder how negative it has become in recent weeks. Losing to the Raiders last week is a clear case in point that the fight is removed from the 49ers character. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-15 ATS mark for 73% winners since 2003. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SEATTLE) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. The following game situations match my expectations and projections for this game. San Fran is 0-5 ATS L3 seasons and 8-40 ATS since 1992 when allowing 150+ rushing yards. Seattle is 7-1 ATS when they gain 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play over the last three seasons; 12-4 ATS when they allow 15 to 21 points L3 seasons; 13-4 ATS when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards L3 seasons. Collin Kaepernick is 0-6 ATS facing Seattle and 0-3 ATS at Seattle. Russell Wilson is a solid 14-7 ATS as a home favorite and 14-4 ATS in games lined with a total between 34 1/2 to 41 1/2 points L5 seasons. Lynch will have a big day in this matchup. He grades third best back in the NFL in our database and leads the NFL in missed tackled with 68. That's 10 more than second-best Murray of the Cowboys. Wilson leads the NFL in average time to throw at 3.22 seconds per drop back. This is the added weapon that will give Wilson ample tim eot throw in play action throughout this game. The San Fran secondary has been largely inconsistent starting with the LB. The DL depth is extraordinarily weak and Seattle will set up plays based on the personnel and optimize each down and distance. Take Seattle. |
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12-14-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Baltimore Ravens -13.5 | Top | 12-20 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 40 m | Show |
Baltimore won the Super Bowl in 2012 and they are beginning another playoff run similar to that season. It's hard to imagine the ONLY team in the NFL that ranks in the top quarter on both sides of the ball flying under the radar, but that is exactly the case. On offense Ravens rank in the top-10 in scoring offense, points-per-play, yards-per-game, third-down conversion percentage, and rushing yards per game. Flacco is having a career best season in many categories. He has the best supporting cast of any team in his career as well. He has career bests in completion percentage (64%), passing yards per game (251), sack rate (3.5 percent), passer rating (94.5), and total QBR (73.1). Last season, the Ravens had arguably the worst ground game in the NFL with a league-worst 3.1 yards per rush. Now under the emergence of Justin Forsett the Ravens rank fifth in the NFL gaining an average of 136 rushing yards per game. Forsett leads all running backs gaining 5.6 per carry and is third in total rushing yards. This solid ground game has allowed the Ravens WR ample opportunities to make plays in man coverage. Torrey Smith has caught seven TD in his last seven games and Steve Smith has 889 receiving yards. The real source of the offensive success is found on the interior line led by RG Marshal Yanda and LG Kelechi Osemele. The Center position was a very weak spot on this OL last season. Jeremy has solidified and brought consistent execution to that position this season. He ahs been especially excellent in run block assignments. Further, Yanda grades as the best offensive lineman in the NFL and Osemele ranks second-best in his position. As has always been th ecase, 'ahead' of every great running back is an even better OL. One of the best linebacker corps in the NFL is the driving force behind the Ravens success that has put them sixth in scoring defense (19.6 PPG), eighth in points-per-play allowed (0.310), fourth in rushing yards allowed (84.5), and 10th in sack percentage (7.1%). At outside linebacker, Elvis Dumervil has a league high with 16 sacks and has been playing at an elite level against the run. However, he may not be even the vest defensive player. That is because Terrell Suggs at age 32 is having a rebirth this season. The other OLB, Pernell McPhee leads the NFL with 17 quarterback hits. The inside linebackers are led by former Jacksonville player Daryl Smith. He spent the first nine seasons of his career with Jacksonvillle and Baltimore got a great pickup in the off season. He was on eof the top ILB in the NFL last season, but his play has elevated higher and remains one of the most versatile LB in the NFL. He is fully capable of tight coverage, excellent against the run, and has a quick first step in blitz situations. His ILB teammate is rookie C.J. Mosley, who leads the NFL in total tackles by all LB. As expected, the special teams are at the top of the NFL again this year. Head Coach Jim Harbaugh started his brilliant career as a special teams coach and his attention to detail in the unit has paid off huge dividends. Justin Ticker is looking to have back-to-back first team All-Pro seasons. he has made 21 of 21 kicks inside of 50 yards and is 4 of 7 form beyond 50 yards with misses from 55, 57, and 64 yards. These two units will be going against a Jacksonville team that ranks near the bottom in the majority of statistic al categories and metrics on both sides of the ball. Jags rank last in the league scoring 15.3 PPG and points per play (0.245) just to mention a few of the categories. On defense they rank 29th in scoring defense (27.4 PPG), 28th in rushing yards (133). On the bright side the Jags rank fourth in the league in sack percentage (8.12%). However, as already detailed, they will be going up against an OL line that is arguably the best in the league. So, for a multitude of reasons, I see this matchup heavily favored in Baltimore's side of the ledger. Technically, the following game situations match my projections for the outcome of this game. Jacksonville is 0-15 ATS when allowing 150 or more rushing yards over the past three seasons. Further, they are a money burning 2-11 ATS when they have allowed 6 or more total yards per play in game splayed over the last three seasons. Baltimore is a stellar 6-0 ATS this season and 10-2 ATS the last three seasons when gaining more than 125 rushing yards. When gain between 150 and 175 rushing yards, the Ravens are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season and 7-0 ATS the past three seasons. Take Baltimore. |
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12-14-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Buffalo Bills +5.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 30 m | Show |
I like taking the Buffalo Bills plus the points when they host the Green Bay Packers starting at 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 14. This may appear to be a bit surprising or even shocking to some of you, but I have made a long career of feasting on live dogs against unsuspecting favorites. Of course, there are solid reasons based on extensive research for these plays so let's take a look at the matchups. This is a matchup offensive strength versus defensive strength. Packers rank best in the NFL scoring 32.5 PPG, points per play (0.529), yards per play (6.3), and TD's per game (3.9). Buffalo counters this offensive attack sporting the fourth best scoring defense (18.5 PPG), fifth in opponent yards allowed (312), fourth in points per play allowed (0.291), fourth in opponent yards per play allowed (4.9), and third in TD's allowed (1.9). Green Bay's QB Aaron Rogers is having an MVP type season and on mnay occasions makes the game look quite simple to execute. However, he is going to be tested in this matchup. Buffalo is one of the best passing defenses in the NFL ranking sixth in opponent yards per pass (6.1), fifth in passing yards allowed (213), second in interception percentage (3.78%), and best in sack percentage (9.64%) Buffalo plays a 4-3 defense and is led my DE Mario Williams, who is graded as third best DE in the NFL. He has been incredible against the run, but has strong passing rush statistics as well. In 659 snaps played, he is the NFL sack leader (13), and has 29 QB hurries and seven QB hits on the season. DT Marcell Dareus ranks fourth best at his position overall and the NFL best 10 sacks for 4-3 tackles. The other DT is Kyle Williams, who is also playing at an elite level, has seven QB sacks, 11 QB hurries, and 23 QB hits on the season. They don't get the national media attention, but this front four are an absolute terror to OL and OC coaches. At the LB position, the Bills have one of the best coverage defenders in the NFL in Preston Brown. at the other OLB is Nigel Bradham, who has been among the best at his position against the run and is above average in coverage situations. So,m through two layers, the Buffalo defense is quite strong with few, if any, holes for an OC to plan to exploit. Buffalo has very good CB too and are led by Corey Graham, who grades sixth best in the NFL. He is in very good company on that list, which is led by Seahawks Therold Simon, Colts, Vontae Davis, Rams Trumaine Johnson, Seahawks Richard Shermon, and Broncos Chris Harris, JR. Further, Graham is a great open field tackler and has missed just three tackles in 45 opportunities this season.  Now, it is not logical to expect Buffalo to completely shutdown a Rogers led offensive attack. However, the unit as a whole will be a formidable force that will make it far more difficult for Rogers and his weapons to make plays and move the chains. Looking at the technical considerations we see that Buffalo has been a resilient team in past seasons. They have a posted a near-perfect 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) off a road loss over the last three seasons. Take the Buffalo Bills. |
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12-13-14 | Army v. Navy OVER 57 | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 35 m | Show |
50* graded play 'OVER' in the annual Army-Navy game set to start Saturday at 3:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that 60 or more points will be scored in this game. Based on the matchups, I see Navy scoring in the 40's and Army in the high 20's to low 30's.  I also like Army for a 15* play. I would also suggest no more than 5* parlay with Army and the 'over' as well. Here are some game situations that support both plays. Army is a solid 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) when facing generous defensive teams allowing >=425 yards/game over the last three seasons; 16-6 OVER (+9.4 Units) after covering the spread in two out of their last three games since 1992. The following results match my expectations for how this game will be played in specific situations. Army is 5-1 'over' the L3 seasons when allowing 300+ rushing yards; 12-3 'over' when they have allowed 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt L3 seasons; 9-0 'over' when they allow 500 or more offensive yards. Navy is a solid 14-2 'over' since 1992 when they have gained 7.5 or more total yards per play. Needless to say, both teams will have success running the ball. Army executes the triple option well and are led by QB Angel Santiago and fellow senior Larry Dixon. The latter leads the team with 1,012 rushing yards and trails only Santiago by one rushing TD (10 versus 9). The player to really keep an eye on and one that I strongly believe will be a 'surprise' factor is Tony Giovanelli. He will line up up all over the field and is an excellent team player that does whatever is assigned to him to make all plays a success. Sophomore Joe Walker has become a go-to receiver in the few times they do throw the ball. This is a weapon that Navy cannot allow to go uncovered. Part of the triple option is the first fake and then 3-step drop-back where Santiago can look for a wide open Walker for huge gains. Navy is the vastly better team in this matchup and they will not be forced to take chances to win the game. Navy quarterback Keenan Reynolds will be Navy's primary runner and scoring option on Saturday, but the big fullbacks and speedy slot backs should be an integral part of their game plan as well against Army. Navy has the pair of bruising FB in Copeland and Swain, who has the nick name 'Swain Train' and for very good reason. Navy also has a pass option with Jamir Tillman, who leads the team with 18 receptions for 308 yards and two TD. I see both defenses getting worn down by the punishing ground attacks of both offenses leading to a greater number of double digit yardage gains and an increasing number of broken and missed tackles. Take the "OVER' for a 50* play, 15* play on Army plus the points, and a 5* play Army and the 'over' as a parlay. |
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12-08-14 | Atlanta Falcons +13 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 37-43 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Green Bay Packers in NFC Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. I also like the 'OVER' for a 15* graded play. As an option, you can consider making a parlay bet in one of two ways. In situations liek this, I like using the action reverse parlay instead of a generic 2-team parlay. In a reverse, you get a 4:1 payout, but also assume a substantial more risk. For example, if you would wager $200 on the parlay using action revers, then if both hit you win 800, however, if one loses and one wins your loss would be 240 (20% vig at most windows. There are some that do charge just 10%). If both lose, then the loss if 480 on the 200 reverse parlay. I am confident enough in these situations that there is a far better chance of going 2-0 than 0-2. No guarantee of course, but track record support this confidence. Worst case is I do split. So, if we presume the Falcons cover, lose the total, lose the reverse, we will still be making a few extra coins. I wouldn't be outlining this opportunity if I didn't feel quite strongly and confident. Yet, as i ALWAYS have stated now for 20 seasons, please use discipline and never go 'All in" on any situation, especially if you are looking to recover from a losing weekend.  The simulator shows a high probability that Atlanta will lose this game by 11 or fewer points and that more than 56 points will be scored. I simply see this is a shootout and find it easy to see both teams scoring 28 points. In past games over the L3 seasons GB is a stellar 20-1 'over' when scoring 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-9 ATS for 77% winners since 2003.  Play against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games with this game taking place in the second half of the season. This system has gone a perfect 11-0 over the past five seasons. The best matchup i see is that Rogers will have to go to other Packer WR instead of his stud Jory Nelson, who will be covered by one of the best CB in the league. Desmond Trufant ranks 6th best in the NFL in overall performance and 7th best coverage performance grade. Quarterbacks have a 79.2 quarterback rating when throwing into Trufant’s coverage. Matt Ryan ranks 4th best QN in pass accuracy rating at 77% and has many weapons at his disposal. Further, the rise of Falcons NT Jonathan Babnineaux is going to make it more difficult for the Packers to run between the tackles. I see this game tonight as a complete shootout in the passing game with the possibility of 'last team with the ball' having a great chance to win. Take the Falcons for a 25* play and 'over' for a 15* play. Do not exceed more than a 2* play if using the action reverse parlay. Good luck to us! |
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12-07-14 | New England Patriots -3.5 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 23-14 | Win | 100 | 32 h 22 m | Show |
I like the Patriots to bounce back from their loss at Lambeau and defeat the San Diego Chargers. Despite the loss, the Patriots have solid control on gaining the best record in the Conference and home field advantage in the playoffs. There simply s not a better prepared team in the NFL. Belichick and his staff essentially recreate their schemes to exploit the opponents weaknesses and to minimize and almost eliminate an opponent's strengths. New England has the 19th easiest most difficult SOS down the stretch. In addition to San Diego, they will play Miami, New York Jets, and end the season home against Buffalo. Winning out is certainly the plan for this team as they begin to peak for another Super Bowl run. Denver can win ought as well having the 16th strongest schedule down the stretch. They host Buffalo this week, then play at San Diego, away at Cincinnati, and finish home versus Oakland. So, New England is fully aware that any loss could bring about monumental damage to hosting the Conference Championship game. The vast difference between these two teams is New England's offense that ranks third in scoring and second in points-per-play with a 0.466 ratio. By comparison, the Chargers offense ranks 14th in scoring and 13th in points-per-play with a 0.373 ratio. Patriots rank 13th in scoring defense and 11th in points-per-play allowed with a 0.322 ratio. By comparison, the Chargers defense ranks 12th in scoring defense, but 15th in points-per-play allowed with a 0.341 ratio. It appears based on the flash stats that the Chargers have a viable passing defense. However, this is misleading as most teams have exploited their below average run defense, specially in the second half of previous games. Enter the three-headed ground attack of the Patriots led by multi-purpose back Vareen, elusive power runner Jonas Gray, and the rejuvenated power runner of Blount. I don't see San Diego being able to stop or even contain the ground attack and this will force them to bring a safety up to the LOS for run help.  San Diego has allowed 107 or more rushing yards in six of the last seven games. The only team not to gain more than 107 yards was the highly anemic ground attack of the Oakland Raiders. When this happens Brady will go to work using play action to get extra time to find the best matchups in man coverage. As we have witnessed, Gronkowski has been huge in play action, but Brady will target the correct matchup on the field and fire strikes to any receiver involved in the play.  The Patriots OL is playing at an elite level and rank 2nd in QB sacks allowing a sack on only 3.55% of the snaps. Brady has benefitted from this great protection by throwing an interception on just 1.30% of his pass attempts good for second best in the NFL. Brady has gotten the ball out within 2.75 seconds in blitz situations using quick slants, outs, ins, and bubble screens to a wide array of receivers. So, it is just not possible for any defense to minimize an obvious strength on the Patriots offense. Looking at the technical side of this game we see that the Patriots are on a very nice  6-0 ATS after one or more consecutive losses in games played over the last two seasons. Chargers are off an emotional and physical come from behind 34-33 win at Baltimore. However, they are just  0-6 ATS  in home games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored in game splayed over the last three seasons. Take the Patriots |
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12-07-14 | Seattle Seahawks +1 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Seattle Seahawks as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in a major showdown of NFL heavyweights set to start at 4:25 PM ET. When you take a look at the dominating wins by the Eagles, they have done so with immense pressure up the gut and getting pressure on the QB within 2 seconds. However, these schemes worked well against looking record teams most notably the NY Giants. Now, the pressure has to not only get through the OL, but also track down one of the most mobile QB in the NFL. Conner Barwin and Trent Cole combined are near the top of the NFL in pass rush efficiency grades. Yet, this duo and the Eagles defensive front will be competing arguably the BEST OL they have seen to date. There are just three tackles that have not allowed a sack and Seattle one of them in Okung. The other two are Andrew Whitworth and Lane Johnson). Further, the return of LB Wagner has made the Seattle defense incredibly fast and very physical. As a group the Seattle defense has graded tops in the majority of areas since Week 8. I am confident that the Eagles defense will be forced to play slower and that Seattle will play bump at the LOS on nearly every possible target. Back to the offensive side of the ball, I am confident that Lynch will have more than 100 yards on the ground and will be a factor in bubble screens and quick hits out of the backfield. These both will limit the amount of pressure Philadelphia can bring and will allow Russell even more time in the pocket off play action. The simulator shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-16 ATS mark for 71.4% winners since 2003.  Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) after 2 consecutive games where they committed no turnovers. The following game situations match my expectations for this game. Seattle is a strong 7-1 ATS L3 seasons when gaining 5.5 to 6.0 net yards per play; 16-8 ATS L3 seasons when they rush for 125 or more yards; 13-4 ATS L3 seasons when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards. Take Seattle for a 25* Titan play. Your added pair of 15* Titan totals are 'OVER' Miami-Baltimore and 15* 'UNDER' Patriots-Chargers. |
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12-07-14 | St. Louis Rams v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -101 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
St. Louis had a historic last game defeating the Oakland Raiders 52-0. However, that does count only as 1 win and they will struggle in this matchup against the Washington Redskins. Generally, we have seen teams in all sports produce incredible levels of elite performance, which is simply unsustainable. It also works in very poor performance situations as well where their is a strong propensity for teams to rebound at perform closer to their average output in the next game. In some cases the performances can move vastly beyond the respective team averages and this is the case for this matchup. I see Washing producing above their season norm and St. Louis significantly below. The simulator reveals that Washington will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a great shot at getting a home win. Supporting this graded 25* Titan is a strong money making system that has gone 39-15 ATS for 72% winners since 1983. 45% of these covered the spread by 7+ points and underscores my expectations that Washington will win. Play against favorites (ST LOUIS) after three or more consecutive wins against the spread and is a marginal losing team winning between 40% to 49% playing a losing record team. This system reflects the under performance tendencies of losing record teams after a sustained period of above average trend performance. I definitely see Alfred Morris and the Washington ground attack have consistent success in this matchup. This will open up play action situations for QB McCoy to execute in high percentage situations. The best matchup I see is hitting TE Jordan Reed in slants and seem routes on play action. Reed had his best overall complete game of the season, catching nine balls on 11 targets for 123 yards, including 70 yards-after-the-catch. McCoy had a meteoric 113.3 QB Rating when throwing his way. He also forced two missed tackles on the day. There was one big play where the Colts made the mistake of putting a LB on him in man coverage and Reed caught a 30-yard pass and catch right down the seem. You can be assured that McCoy will be looking to get that man coverage matchup often in this game. Take Washington. |
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12-07-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Miami Dolphins -3 | Top | 28-13 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 12 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the Baltimore Ravens in a critical AFC matchup set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-9 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2003. Play on favorites (MIAMI) and is a solid offensive team scoring 23 to 27 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 PPG after 8 or more games have been played and after a win by 6 or less points. The following game situations match my expectations and projections for the outcome of this game. Miami is a perfect 5-0 L3 seasons when allowing 6.0 to 6.5 net passing yards per attempt; 5-1 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 4.5 to 5.0 rushing yards per attempt; 12-2 ATS L3 seasons when they have scored 22 to 28 points; 7-1 ATS L3 seasons when they have gained 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. A key matchup I see favoring the Dolphins is their DE Cameron Wake going up against RT Ricky Wagner. Since entering the league in 2009, Wake has always finished in the Top 3 in terms of pass rush grade at his position and currently owns the best rush grade of all 4-3 defensive ends. Wake has certainly caused his fair share of issues to opposing quarterbacks, accumulating 51 total pressures and a Pass Rushing Productivity (PRP) of 12.1, tied for fifth among all 4-3 defensive ends that have played a minimum of 132 passing snaps. Wagner may need periodic help to contain Wake from a RB or even a TE, which reduces Flaccos downfield receivers. This also allows Miami to be more creative with their zone blitz pre-snap looks. On the other side of the ball, I really like the power running of Lamar Miller. The Dolphins do run the ball effectively between the tackles. Miller has had 90 attempts between the tackles and 60 running outside the tackles. Although Miami is coming off a short week win against the Jets, the Ravens are still reeling from a crushing defeat blowing a 10-point 4th quarter lead. Take Miami. |
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12-06-14 | Fresno State v. Boise State -22.5 | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -111 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
50* graded play on Boise State as they take on Fresno State in the Mountain West Championship game set to start at 10:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Boise will win this game by 27 or more points. It is rare that I get down on a double digit favorite, but when I do it is valid across the board. This game is major mismatch. Under the new College Football Playoff system, the highest-ranked conference champion from the Mountain West, Sun Belt, Mid-American, American Athletic and Conference USA plays in the either Fiesta Bowl, Cotton Bowl or Peach Bowl on Jan. 1. So, knowing the outcome a win produces for this team is a huge motivator. I strongly believe that the coaching staff is using this tool to refocus their players on the opponent. That is ironic, but in many thing sin life, knowing the reward ahead of completing the task can be a huge and powerful force. Fresno is improved since the beginning of the season and have earned their way to this game. However, they simply do not have the defensive presence nor depth in personnel to contain a strong Boise offense for four quarters. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-11 ATS mark for 36-11 ATS and 77% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BOISE ST) with an elite offense averaging 6.4 or more yards/play, after gaining 475 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 50% of the plays made have covered the spread by 7+ points. Here is a second system that has produced a 35-8 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BOISE ST) that is an elite offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game and after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games. It's a statistical variation of the first system, but still reinforces my belief that Boise will cover easily. Given the matchups, it is a near certainty that Boise will score 28 or more points. In past games, FSU is 1-5 ATS this seasons when allowing 28+ points. Further, they are 0-4 ATS this season and 8-28 ATS since 1996 when they have been outgained by 2.0 yards per play. Take Boise State. |
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12-06-14 | Wisconsin -4 v. Ohio State | Top | 0-59 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
25* graded play on Wisconsin as they take on Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game starting at 8:17 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Wisconsin will win this game by 9 or more points. If the third string QB situation isn't bad enough for OSU, they still have defend one of the best ground attacks in the nation. Melvin Gordon is having a Heismann year gaining 2260 yards and averaging 8.0 YPC and 26 TD. He also has three receiving scores on 17 catches. Corey Clement  has 830 rushing yards and 6.5 YPC with 10 receptions and a 1 TD. I see the OSU defensive front steadily getting worn down over the course of the game. This style of play will also allow Wisconsin to control the tempo of the game and gain a sizable advantage in TOP. Wisconsin is a solid  11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) facing strong offensive teams scoring 31 or more points/game over the last three seasons. OSU under the leadership of Myer is just 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The following game situations match my expectations for the outcome of this game. Wisconsin is 16-5 ATS L3 seasons when gaining 6.0+ rushing yards per carry; 18-4 ATS L3 seasons when scoring 28 or more points. Take Wisconsin. |
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12-06-14 | Florida State -4 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Florida State Seminoles as they take on Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship game set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 8 or more points. Seriously folks. Whether you are a fan or hater of the FSU football program, no one can argue the injustice served by the playoff committee in having TCU jump over them in the rankings. How can a well educated panel put a team that has 28 straight wins and a superior SOS to a 1-loss TCU squad. So, this has to be the BEST bulletin board material possible for the FSU team and I fully expect them to come and finally play 4 strong quarters and destroy Georgia Tech. I see FSU scoring a minimum of 28 points. In past games, G-Tech is a money burning 2-12 ATS over the past 3 seasons when allowing 28+ or more points. Moreover, they are 0-4 ATS L3 seasons and 5-20 ATS since 1992 when allowing 25 to 41 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-2 mark for 92% winners using the money line 1992. Play on neutral field favorites using the money line (FLORIDA ST) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. I am seeing -180 on the money line ands if you are a money line player, I see no reason not to take the plunge. I would suggest making a risk play though where you wager $2500 to win $1400 if you prefer the money line strategy. I am making this play using the line. We all know G-tech has a very strong ground attack, but they have not played against a defense with the speed, quickness, and athleticism of FSU. Defending the read-option and triple option ground attacks requires gap discipline and solid angles in pursuit. Both I see FSU possessing and being able to execute well. Further, I also believe that FSU will be able to get Tech into much longer third down situations, which allows FSU to give Tech different and varying looks pre snap. Tech ranks best in the nation converting third downs and is in large part because they get into a majority of third-and-short situations. FSU will not allow that to happen. Tech is very vulnerable to the FSU passing attack and this is the area where I feel FSU could get out to an rare two or three score lead in the first half. Take Florida State. |
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12-06-14 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma -21 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Oklahoma Sooners as they take on Oklahoma State in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 27 points. This is a mismatch on both sides of the ball. Truly, the only factor standing in the way of a Sooner cover is by them making mistakes that would provide State with a short field. Â Sooner offense ranks 11th in the nation in scoring offense, 16th in yards-per-game, 10th in points-per-play, 9th in yards-per-play, 8th in rushing yards per game, and best allowing a sack on just 1.78% of the plays run. Cowboy defense ranks a terrible 93th in scoring defense, 93rd in yards allowed, 83rd in yards-per-play, 50th in rushing yards allowed, and 124th in passing yards allowed. On the other side of the ball, I see a Sooner defense that will dominate the Cowboy offense. Cowboys have struggled all season and rank just 84th in scoring offense, 103 in yards-per-game, 102nd in yards-per-play, 103rd in rushing yards, and 62nd in passing yards. Sooner defense ranks a solid 33rd in scoring defense, 28th in yards-per-play, 9th in rushing yards allowed. Sooners can easily force Cowboys to try and move the chains through the air and I expect Sooner defense to make plays and produce several turnovers. I certainly see the Sooner offense scoring 28 or more points. Note that Cowboys are just 5-14 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 28+ points and are 1-5 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 35 to 42 points. I also believe that Sooner ground attack will gain around 300 yards. In past games, Cowboys are 5-16 ATS since 1992 when allowing >6.0 yards per rush. Sooners are 8-1 ATS L3 seasons and 23-7 ATS since 1992 when gaining >6.0 yards per rush; 12-3 ATS L3 seasons when gaining >6.5 yards-per-play L3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 49-19 ATS mark for 72% winners since 1992. Play on a home team (OKLAHOMA) after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in two straight games and is now facing an opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game. Take the Oklahoma Sooners. |
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12-04-14 | Dallas Cowboys -3.5 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 41-28 | Win | 100 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Chicago Bears in an NFC matchup set to start at 8:20 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Cowboys will win this game by 8 or more points. Dallas has sizable advantages on both sides of the ball. Statistically they have produced significantly better results in yards/play, points/play, rush percentage, Completion percentage, 3rd down conversion percentage, and red zone scoring percentage. DeMarco Murray is having a career year and leads the NFL with 1427 yards. Le'Veon Bell is a distance second with 1046 yards gained on the season. Murray's ground game will be a dominant factor in Dallas winning this game easily. Last week, Dallas got hammered by the Eagles. With 10:00 in the first quarter and Dallas driving for a score, Romo had room to move up in the pocket, but fell to the first 'fell' of pressure. I believe this is a sure sign that he is still not pain free from his back fractures. However, against Chicago, he will have far better protection and has had a full week of rest and preparation too. One of the lone bright spots on Dallas’ defense with a sack-fumble on Mark Sanchez early in the second quarter. Crawford was a general nuisance in run defense for the rest of the game, doing his best to slow the opposing run game when the Eagles ran his way. Against the Bears, he will have the support of the rest of the defensive unit. Cutler and Forte will struggle to keep th echains moving in what is a 'must win' game for the Cowboys. In fact, if the season ended last week they would have NOT made the playoffs. Dallas has the fourth easiest schedule down the stretch and they have an excellent shot at going 3-1 or even 4-0 over this stretch. They host the Colts and their hardest win owuld come in a revenge situation against Philadelphia next Sunday. First thing is to take care of a vastly weaker opponent. Despite the poor game by Romo last week, he ranks 3rd in the NFL in QBR behind leader Aaron Rogers and Manning.  Fourth place is held by Andrew Luck so those are some very good names to be associated with and I strongly believe he will lead his team to a big double digit point win. The following game situations match my expectations and projections for this game. Chicago has been a money burning 0-2 ATS this season, 2-8 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 22 to 28 points; 0-2 ATS this season and 0-6 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 7.0 to 7.5 net passing yards per attempt; 1-6 ATS this season when allowing 6.0+ yards per play. Bears are an imperfect  0-8 ATS after having won two out of their last three games over the last two seasons. Take Dallas. |
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12-04-14 | Central Florida +7 v. East Carolina | Top | 32-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
25* graded play on UCF as they take on ECU in American Conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET and will be televised on ESPN/Watch ESPN media outlets.  The simulator shows a high probability that UCF will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Clearly a matchup of ECU offensive strength against UCF defensive strength. I strongly believe that the UCF defense will win the battle at the LOS. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-14 ATS mark for 74% winners since 2008.  Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UCF) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival and is now facing an opponent after a road game where both teams scored 31 or more points. UCF is on a very nice run posting a perfect 9-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last two seasons. ECU is a money burning  3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Take UCF. |
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11-30-14 | New England Patriots v. Green Bay Packers -3 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take to the road to play the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field starting at 4:25 PM ET. This easily could be a preview of the Super Bowl. I'll make this simple. Majority of teams reinvent themselves somewhat every season, but the Patriots have done nearly every single week featuring a new found offensive weapon that most have never heard of till that game. So, how does a DC prepare with a mix of solid Patriots players that include an elite QB and TE not being able to anticipate what that offense might gear up to accomplish. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-9 ATS mark for 79% winners since 2003. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ENGLAND) after 2 consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. 44% of these plays covered the spread by 7 points and underscores my belief that Patriots will win. Here is money line system that has gone 22-10 for 69% winners since 2003 and has made 23 units/unit wagered averaging a +150 DOG. Play against home teams using the money line (GREEN BAY) in a game involving two average defensive teams allowing between 18 and 23 PPG after eight or more games and after a win by three or less points. It is likely that Revis will be defending Jordy Nelson. Whoever, Revis covers, which could be multiple players in varying down-and-yards situations, he will take them out of the play scheme. He has been the best CB in the NFL over the past five games by many metrics and has allowed an average of just 1 reception per 14.2 coverage snaps. Taking out Jody Nelson or using Revis as a defensive decoy will cause Rogers and Co. great problems in my estimation. Take the Patriots. |
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11-30-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Atlanta Falcons +1.5 | Top | 18-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
The NFC South Division is by far the weakest Division in the NFL. The Falcons and the Saints lead with 4-7 marks and neither has a very strong chance of getting to 0.500. So, it may seem a bit contrarian for a play on a losing record team playing an Arizona squad with the best record in the conference. Atlanta is coming off a very tough loss to the Browns. A last second field was the difference, but despite this frustration, they are still tied for the Division lead. They also struggled on defense allowing 162 rushing yards and 313 passing yards for a combined 6.80 yards per play. Atlanta has been a resilient team, though, posting a 7-0 ATS mark after allowing six or more yards/play in two consecutive games in games played spanning the last two seasons. Stanton has done a decent job under center, but he has been making too many misreads when under pressure. This has been evident in both blitz and 4-man pass rushes. He has a tendency to lock-in on one receiver, which has led to the majority of his interceptions. When blitz by Seattle he averaged only 3 yards per play. Atlanta will blitz more than a third of all plays from a various angles and look to force Stanton into as many mistakes leading to turnovers or drive ending incompletions. I expect Atlanta to win the field position battle. With a short field and an offense that ranks 11th in yards per play and third in red zone scoring, they will score at least 24 points in this game. I strongly believe that Atlanta will get out to a lead and then put pressure on an offense that does not possess the elite skill position players to generate second half comebacks. |
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11-30-14 | NY Giants v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3 | Top | 24-25 | Win | 105 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
The New York Giants are coming off an extremely physical game against the Division rival Cowboys and now play arguably the worst team in the NFL in Jacksonville. Yet, the Giants have just two more wins than Jaguars and are surprisingly similar to them in the defensive statistical categories. Further, the Giants almost beat the 49ers and TWO 11-point leads against the Cowboys. These types of failures are more difficult o absorb and move forward than simply getting blown out. So, I don't see much left in the Giants tank other than building for the future and seeing what more Beckham can contribute for the future. The matchup I see working very well is the Jaguars offense going up against a Giants defense ranking 27th in points allowed, 31st in yards per game allowed, 30th in points-per-play allowed, and dead last in yards per play allowed.  Granted, Jaguars have struggled mightily on offense, but they will be able to stretch the Giant defense and open up running lanes for the ground game. Bortles made 21 of 24 throws that were less than 10 yards in length in last week's loss to the Colts. I believe he will ample time to throw down field in vertical routes amid a decent ground game. Play action is a quarterbacks best pass blocker allowing time o scan the field and execute high percentage throws. The Giants defense allowed Romo 7.5 seconds of time to throw the ball on the winning scoring drive TWICE. In this light, Shorts and Lee have the speed, quickness, and athleticism, to create space and Bortes will get the ball to them. I also see TE Mercedes Lewis as a solid check down option. I also believe that the Jacksonville defense featuring LB Telvin Smith and DE Chris Clemons will be successful in containing the Giants offense. Former Seattle DE Chris Clemons finally had a monster game sacking Luck three times in the first quarter alone that included a strip-sack. Pressure on Manning is a dominant key in keeping Beckham under wraps and I see the Jaguars winning that matchup. The Giants allowed 34 points last week in their loss to the Cowboys. This is not good news noting they are just 1-9 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game in all games played over the last two seasons. Giants have allowed 30+ points in four of the last five games. I don't expect the Jaguars to score 30+ points, but I do see them scoring between 22 and 28 points. In past games over the last three seasons, the Jaguars are a perfect 5-0 ATS when scoring 22 to 28 points. |
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11-30-14 | Oakland Raiders +6.5 v. St. Louis Rams | Top | 0-52 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
15* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the St. Louis Ram sin NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a solid shot at an upset win. The records aside, these two teams are surprisingly similar. The difference is that the Raiders have been making steady improvements and are looking better on both sides of the ball. Although they rank near the bottom of the NFL in the majority of offensive stats, they ranks best in the NFL in Red Zone scoring. Stands to reason then that the Raiders will see an increase in red zone scoring opportunities facing the Rams 29th rank in points per play allowed ratio and 29th rank in TD allowed. To score points, a team needs solid QB protection. Raiders Tackle Donald Penn has been fantastic in recent weeks and ranks among the top-5 tackles in pass blocking. He has allowed 19 QB pressures, but just 1 sack and 1 QB hit on the season. On the defensive side of the ball the Raiders have the BEST run stop ILB in Mack, who has 15 more run stops than any other ILB in the league. Further, keep an eye on Antonio D. Smith, who has 30 QB pressures and ranks in the top-10 in 3-4 DE alignments in the league. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-9 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2003. Play on road teams (OAKLAND) off 1 or more straight 'overs' and is a struggling offensive team scoring 14 to 18 PPG and is now facing a poor defensive team allowing between 23 to 27 PPG. Take Oakland. |
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11-30-14 | Cincinnati Bengals -4 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
15* graded play on the Cincinnati Bengals as they take on the Tampa Bay Bucs in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that the Bengals will win this game by 7 or more points. The only 'red flag' on this game is that there is a betting imbalance with the public squarely supporting the Bengals. Now, the public is never always wrong, but I do generally like being on the 'book' side. Keep in mind too, that betting flows is just one of a ton of researched factors I perform each week and for every game. There is not one 'black box' type of indicator or stat that serves to validate a play by itself. A key matchup that I see the Bengals winning is against DT McCoy, who ranks best by a wide margin in pass rush and overall performance. He will be contained by the Bengals interior linemen Boling and Zeitler. Giving Dalton time to throw to a strong receiver corp led by A.J. Green will put immense pressure on the TB secondary. Bengals are a solid 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) facing struggling passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in games played in the second half of the season since 1992. Take the Bengals. |
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11-30-14 | Cleveland Browns +3.5 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
15* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they host the Cleveland Browns in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Bills will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-9 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2008. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) after a game where they committed no turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. Kyle Orton has been critiqued unfairly with the talking heads always looking in the rear view mirror in evaluating his performance. The simple fact is he is a very intelligent QB and athlete, who just does not make mistakes and makes the plays necessary to put his team in position to win the game. His passer accuracy rating is fourth-best in the NFL. Bills have two elite defensive tackles in Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams and they will contain any form of ground attack from the Browns. The Bills got a real hidden gem in the third round of the draft in linebacker Preston Brown, who ranks best in the NFL ahead of Von Miller based on tackle efficiency grade. Take the Bills. |
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11-29-14 | Kansas +27 v. Kansas State | Top | 13-51 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
25* graded play on Kansas as they take on Kansas State in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at 4:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Kansas will lose this game by fewer than 24 points. This game is a near match to the 25* shocker I had on Kansas when they nearly took out TCU. They led that game 27-17 entering the 4th quarter. I am not suggesting at all that you will see the same sort of game, but I do strongly believe Kansas can match up with them and compete for the entire game. Now, you may point out that Kansas was destroyed last week by Oklahoma in a 44-7 route. However, Kansas is a perfect 7-0 ATS after a loss by 35 or more points over the last three seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-12 ATS mark for 76% winners since 19912. This system has posted a 10-2 ATS mark the last five seasons and perfect 3-0 ATS the last three seasons. Play on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (KANSAS) after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game and with eight or more offensive starters including the QB returning from last year's squad. Kansas has been steadily improving on offense and I believe they can compete against a K-State team that just might more focused on next week's potential showdown with Baylor. Take Kansas. |
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11-29-14 | Michigan State v. Penn State +14 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
25* graded play on Penn State University as they host Michigan State in Happy Valley in Big Ten Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that PSU will keep this game to fewer than 10 points. If you believe in the upset adding a 3* play using the money line makes perfect sense. The PSU defense is the most under rated group of defenders not only in the Big Ten, but the nation. They rank best allowing just 267 yards per game, third in scoring defense, 6th in points per play allowed, best allowing just 3.9 yards per play, send allowing just 27% third down conversions, and 5th allowing just 5.7 yards per pass. Certainly they will be severely tested by a strong MSU offensive attack, but I firmly believe PSU will win the 'war'. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-10 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2003. Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and is now facing an opponent after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. 48% of the plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. Take Penn State. |
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11-29-14 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss +3 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Mississippi as they take on Mississippi State in SEC Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Ole Miss will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a very strong 25-7 mark using the Money Line and has made 24 units/unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a solid +121 DOG play and is a perfect 2-0 this season.  Play on a road team using the money line (MISSISSIPPI ST) after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game and is now facing an opponent after being beaten by the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game. Based on the summary of projections, I am confident Rebels will score at least 28 points. In past games, Rebels are a solid 5-2 ATS this season, 18-5 ATS the L3 seasons when scoring 28 or more points. I also see them having a monster day on offense and will gain 400 to 450 total yards. This has been a rare occurrence for the team, but when they do achieve this elite level of offensive production, they are a  6-1 ATS L3 seasons. In the current season they are 4-1 ATS. I simply do not see this team as one that is out of gas, especially playing this heated rival and a chance to knock them out of the playoff. Take the Rebels. |
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11-29-14 | Purdue v. Indiana OVER 57 | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 49 m | Show |
50* graded play 'OVER' Purdue-Indiana in Big Ten Conference action set to start at Noon ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that more than 60 points will be scored. I also like Purdue in this matchup of 3-8 teams for a 10* play. So, consider playing each pay based on the star unit or add a parlay using a 5* play on Purdue with the money line and the 'over'. The following game situations match my expectations and projections and under score the 'over' play. Indiana is a 6-1 'over' this season and 9-1 'over' L3 seasons when they have rushed for >6.0 yards; 6-1 'over' the L3 seasons when they have rushed for more than 300 yards; 6-0 'over' the L3 seasons when they have gained 6.0 to 6.5 yards per play L 3 seasons. Purdue is 6-1 'over' when they have allowed >300 rushing yards in games played over the L3 seasons. Further historical situations show that HC Wilson is a solid Wilson is 11-3 OVER (+7.7 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game; Â 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) after allowing 37 points or more in 2 straight games; 19-4 OVER (+14.6 Units) off a loss against a conference rival. Take the 'over' |
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11-28-14 | Arkansas -2 v. Missouri | Top | 14-21 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
25* graded play on Arkansas as they take on Missouri in SEC action set to start at 2:30 PM ET.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 72-28 ATS mark for 72% winners since 2008. This system is an impressive 21-7 ATS this season and 54-15 ATS over the past three seasons. 45% of all of these plays made covered the spread by 7 or more points. Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARKANSAS) off 1 or more consecutive 'unders' and is a good offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game. Here is a second system that has gone 36-13 ATS for 74% winners since 2008. 56% of these plays covered the spread by 7+ points. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARKANSAS) off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals, after the first month of the season. Arkansas is playing well and certainly will be a contender next season. They continue to build toward that future. They are also a resounding 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers this season. I always go back to by 25* winner with Arkansas when they went on the road and nearly took then no-1 Miss State into Overtime. They had not won an SEC game in nearly two seasons, but were only installed as 11 point road favorites in that game. This simply reflects how deep the SEC is right now and how incredibly tough the SEC West Division has been this season. Arkansas' running game is quite good and Missouri has had immense trouble against these type of squads. In fact, since Pinkel became HC , his Tigers are a money burning  3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games facing solid rushing teams averaging >=200 rushing yards/game. Take Arkansas. |
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11-28-14 | Northern Illinois +7.5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
25* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Western Michigan in MAC Conference action set to start at 11:00 AM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that NIU will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. I like making this a combination wager using a 21* wager on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Three teams are tied atop the MAC West Division at 6-1: Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Toledo. All three take the field Friday and obviously one of these teams will be eliminated from that race. NIU simply has to win this game and they claim the West Title and will play East winner Bowling Green. Toledo is the third team in the mix and they need loss by NIU and a win over EMU, who has just one conference win. WMU needs to win and then hope for the highly improbable upset by EMU over Toledo. So, I believe the reality of the situation is that the NI players simply know that no matter what happens in their game, Toledo is just not going to lose to EMU. So, you have one team that knows if they win they are in and the other knowing the chances for a Conference Championship game are very slim. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 87-45 ATS mark for 66% winners since 2003. Play against home favorites om conference matchups (W MICHIGAN) in a game involving two mistake-free teams committing |
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11-27-14 | TCU v. Texas +7 | Top | 48-10 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Texas Longhorns as they take on TCU in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Normally, I would consider a combination wager consisting of a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line, but the risk/reward profile just does not validate the added risk. So, simply stick with a 25* play using the line. What I do like, though is adding a 10* play using the 'over' for this contest. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-9 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2003. Play against road favorites (TCU) that is an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 21 and 28 PPG and after a win by 6 or less points. During this win streak ATS, one of the winners was the 25* play on +28 1/2 point dog Kansas, who led 27-17 in the fourth quarter against TCU. Kansas ended up losing 34-30 but easily covered the huge number. Both teams played 12 days ago and will be a full strength and this helps Texas far more than it does TCU. Since losing 23-0 at K-State October 25, Texas has ripped off three impressive wins and covers where both the offense and defense played at elite levels. Most notable was the marked improvement in the ground attack and the run defense. These are the two ingredients necessary for a dog to pull off a big time upset of a ranked opponent. TCU ranks second in scoring offense and 7th in passing yards. Texas defense is 4th best against the run allowing just 3.9 yards per rush. Take the Longhorns. |
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11-27-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys -3 | Top | 33-10 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they host the Philadelphia Eagles in a critical NFC East matchup set to start Thanksgiving Day at 4:30 PM ET. I also have a 15* play 'under' for this game. I don't believe adding a parlay is warranted since there is already 40* amount of risk on this game. However, if you want to parlay these picks, then don't use more than a 5*  The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-14 ATS mark for 73% winners since 1983. All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less and is a good team winning between 60% to 75% and is now playing a team with a winning record. 45% of the games played based on the criteria of this system have covered the spread by seven or more points. I fully expect the Dallas offense to be in top gear and will score between 22 and 28 points and average more than 6.0 yards per play. In past games, the Eagles are just 4-10 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 22 to 28 points and 4-14 ATS L3 seasons when allowing more than 6.0 yards per play. You won't be surprised by the fact that I positively love the matchups that Dallas has and will dominate on both sides of the LOS. They rank second gaining 150 rushing yards per game and are going against an Eagle defense ranking 26th allowing 375 yards per game. Eagles are good on offense ranking 4th in yards per game, but rank just 28th in red zone scoring. Dallas defense ranks 13th in take-aways while Eagles are DEAD LAST  in give-aways. Eagles have 26th worst turnover margin. The Chip Kelly (Oregon offense) is designed to snap the ball quickly between plays and catch the defense not prepared or not able to substitute personnel. As a result the Eagles rank 30th in TOP. However, in this matchup that may be the worst thing the Eagles can do. Dallas ranks 4th best in TOP as they are quite well equipped to generate long time consuming scoring drives with either/both a power ground attack and elite passing attacks. Dez Bryant and Jason Whitten have a great matchups. This will force the Eagles to double team at least one of them. In turn, Dallas can use Bryant as a decoy and allow Romo to target  Terrance Williams, who is listed as questionable. Even he does not go in this game, the Cowboys have depth at WR with Devin Street, Cole Beasley, and Donald Hawkins, all of which could have big days with all the attention and focus the Eagles will have on Bryant and Whitten. The Dallas OL is the best in the NFL and I fully expect them to dominate the LOS. The Eagles have been very successful with using a wide array of blitzes, but I don't see that working against this OL. |
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11-24-14 | Baltimore Ravens +2.5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 34-27 | Win | 109 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the New Orleans Saints in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game. I also like making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Let's look at the technical side first. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-25 ATS mark good for 69% winners since 1983 and is on a 5-0 ATS run over the last three seasons. Play against home favorites (NEW ORLEANS) that are good rushing teams averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/attempt and after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game. Saints have lost two straight games and the defense was torched in both of those losses to San Francisco and Carolina. Not a good situation for tha saints as their HC Payton is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game. Let's take a detailed look at the fundamentals supporting my case for the upset win. Brees has an excellent pass grade of +22.0, which is third-best among all quarterbacks, a Quarterback Rating  of 94.54 good for fifth-best, and an Accuracy Percentage  of 80.8% third-best out of 37 qualifying quarterbacks. However, when facing pressure, which has been on 33.6% of his drop-backs, Brees’ production has dipped significantly. When dealing with pressure, Brees’ accuracy percentage falls to 73.6%, not a substantial decrease, but a decrease nonetheless. The vast reason for cause is the fact that Brees has thrown a league-tying six interceptions when under pressure, in comparison to just two touchdowns. Bress will facing three of the best pass rushers in the NFL in Elvis Dumervil, Pernell McPhee, and Terrell Suggs. Dumervil ranks best in various pass rush categories with McPhee raning third-best. I am confident that the Ravens will blitz far more than 33% of plays and closer to 60% and use a wide array of angles and gaps to completely confuse Brees' pre-snap reads. You'll also see McPhee line up in multiple locations as he has rushed from the right side 53% of the time and 38% from the left side of the LOS. Now, on the other side of the ball, the Saints secondary has been horrid with only one player, Patrick Robinson, grading positively in pass defense this season. They have regressed significantly over the past three week sand Flaco is an experienced field general, who will just not make mistakes. Instead, the Ravens will show a few formation wrinkles to allow them to get Steve Smith isolated in man coverage or to find areas in the zone for Flacco to execute very high percentage completions. Take Baltimore. |
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11-23-14 | Washington Redskins v. San Francisco 49ers -9.5 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -113 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they host the Washington Redskins in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  Biggest news Sunday is that if RG III is ineffective he will be replaced and benched. That can't bode much confidence for the rest of the unit. A bright note for the Redskins has been the elite play by LT Trent Williams. However, he will not be playing today and is listed as doubtful with an MCL. Rookie Morgan Moses will be given the near-impossible task of protecting the blind side against Aldon Smith and/or Aaron Lynch in blitz schemes. The duo combined for the best pass rushing ratings in Week 11 and I fully expect them to be getting to all Redskin Quarterbacks this afternoon. Pressure will be most effective from the perimeters since Redskins Center Kory Lichtensteiger has allowed only eight QB hurries in 384 passing block plays. I expect the 49ers to score between 22 and 28 points. In past games when the 49ers score between 22 and 28 points they have posted a 12-2 ATS mark over the L3 seasons and a perfect 4-0 ATS mark this season.Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 52-25 ATS for 68% winners since 2008. Play against favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. Here is another game situation that matches my expectations. Washington has been a money burning 1-7 ATS L3 seasons when they have allowed 300 to 350 offensive yards. Take the 49ers. |
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11-23-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Seattle Seahawks -7 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
Arizona is playing well and has posted the best record in the NFL. However, they know face their stiffest test in the Seattle Seahawks Sunday. Seattle has several favorable matchups starting with their run defense. Arizona has been unable to get a ground attack going this year ranking 30th averaging 80 rushing yards per game. Seattle has a very strong defensive front seven ranking seventh in run defense allowing 90.8 rushing yards per game. I fully expect the Seattle run defense to dominate the Arizona ground game and force them into third-and-long situations. With a limited ground attack, Seattle will not be vulnerable to play action and can send pressure from numerous angles in passing downs. Seattle ranks third in pass defense allowing 215 yards per game. Another matchup I see Seattle winning is their ground game led by Lynch that ranks best in the NFL gaining 174 yards per game. Arizona has a great run defense ranking third, but I don't see this unit containing them. In fact, last week Lynch made contact with tacklers only 6 times behind the line of scrimmage in 24 carries against Kansas City. He also forced six missed tackles and gained 70 yards after first contact. The ability to successfully execute the power running game will open up a multitude of passing options for Wilson and his receivers that will be in man coverage situations. Arizona backup quarterback Stanton has played above expectations, but last week's win over Detroit was marred by some very poor decisions. In one play, he through a post route, but failed miserably to identify the underneath coverage by linebacker Josh Bynes. Seattle is arguably the best in underneath man and zone execution and disguise those schemes very well pre-snap. Seattle will look to force Stanton to make high risk throws over the middle of the field that may lead to several interceptions. Looking at the technical side of this matchup there is a a very strong system that has gone 33-7 ATS  for 83% winners since 2003. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that struggle to run the ball gaining between 70 and 95 yards per game and are now facing a team with a strong rushing defense allowing between 70 and 95 rushing yards per game. This system clearly underpins the fundamental matchups that I strongly believe Seattle will win. I also project that Seattle will gain 150 or more rushing yards. In past games, Arizona is just 1-6 ATS when allowing 150 or more rushing yards in games played over the last three seasons. On the other side of the ball, I expect Arizona to have less than 75 rushing yards. In past games, Seattle is a stout 3-1 ATS this season and 12-4 ATS the past three seasons. Take Seattle and lay the points. |
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11-23-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Minnesota Vikings +9 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
Minnesota is getting 10 points in a home game against divisional rival Green Bay. I strongly believe that this double digit dog will stay within the posted number and make the Packers work hard to earn the win. The Packers are coming off a blowout win over a completely over matched Eagles squad. They rank first in the NFL in several offensive scoring categories. The Vikings though have a solid defense and one where the matchups are quite favorable in at least containing the Packers juggernaut. The Vikings lost to Chicago last week in a game that was marred by a malfunctioning game clock that impacted the end of the game. Still, they had chances to win. QB Bridgewater had a solid agme, but chose to check down to high percentage completions. The large majority of his throws were between the sideline numbers and within 10 yard of the line of scrimmage. He will challenge the Packers secondary that has been suspect in vertical routes periodically. Moreover, the Packers have not yet proved they can stop the run. I see the Vikings ground attack strong enough for the Packers to respect and this in turn will open play action for Bridgewater. That extra second or so to scan the field will allow him to identify the best opportunity in a man coverage situation. Another matchup that favors the Vikings is defensive end Everson Griffin, who has had three impressive games. He dominated the left side of the Bears offensive line and recorded five hurries last week. He has a great matchup this week that i expect to see end in a greater number of hurries on Packer general Rogers. Vikings defensive tackle Sharif Floyd had by far his best game against the Bears with tremendous lateral pursuit and gap discipline. His play will be critical at the point of attack in blowing up run plays and collapsing the pocket. Moreover, he will destroy any weak side blocking forcing those run plays to the extreme perimeter. The betting public is all over Green Bay in this matchup on the results of last week's blowout win over the Eagles. In fact, 81% of all bets made on this game are on the Packers and this is a sure sign of irrational exuberance by the betting public. This type of frenzied wagering flows serves to reinforce and further support the play on Minnesota. Take the Minnesota Vikings and as an option consider adding a small amount using the money line to take advantage of the possible shocking upset. |
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11-22-14 | USC v. UCLA -4 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
50* graded play on the UCLA Bruins as they take on USC Trojans in a huge PAC-12 Conference game set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game by at least 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-11 ATS mark for 80% winners since 2003. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (USC) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals and is now facing an opponent off a double digit road win. The following game situations match my expectations for what will occur in the game. UCLA is 2-0 ATS this season, 7-0 ATS the past three seasons, and 25-6 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 450 to 500 offensive yards. I also see UCLA scoring at least 28 points. USC is a miserable 1-3 ATS this season, 3-11 ATS the past three seasons, and 15-60 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points. Further, head coach Jim More, JR. has a great history of preparing his team when facing an elite foe. He has posted a 9-2 ATS when playing against a strong team winning between 60% to 75% of their games as the coach of UCLA. Two of the best QB's in the nation square off in this game with UCLA's Hundley and USC's Kessler. I give the advantage though to Hundley with his duel threat and experience under center. A matchup worth watching in this game is how I see UCLA being able to neutralize USC's best defensive player in DE Williams. UCLA has a great running back in Paul Perkins, who ranks second in the PAC-12 gaining 117 yards-per-game. The UCLA team ranks second in the conference and 27th in the nation gaining 217 rushing yards per game. Hundley is first in the nation in completion percentage and given the solidi ground attack will enjoy plenty of time int he pocket in play action. His ability to extend the play further is also a huge advantage for his receivers to create separation and make big plays downfield. USC will get their points as well, but I just do not see them being able to keep pace with the UCLA offense. Take the Bruins. |
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11-22-14 | Tulane +19.5 v. East Carolina | Top | 6-34 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
15* graded play on Tulane as they take on East Carolina in American Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that Tulane will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. ECU had some impressive wins early int eh season, but that has been more than offset with two consecutive losses that have taken them out of any contention for the Conference Title. Â Tulane has struggled on offense this season, but they have a strong secondary that i see matching up well against the ECU passing attack that ranks 2nd in passing yards in the nation. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting an amazing 25-2 ATS mark for 93% winners since 2003 and has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS over the last three seasons. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ECU) that are off 1 or more straight 'overs' and is an explosive offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing a struggling offensive team scoring between 16 and 21 PPG after 7+ games. Take Tulane plus the points. Â |
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11-22-14 | Rutgers +22.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 3-45 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 51 m | Show |
15* graded play on Rutgers as they take on Michigan State in Big Ten Conference action set to start at Noon ET. Although this is a home game, it is one where MSU could very easily fall flat and not take Rutgers seriously. They lost to Ohio State two weeks ago ending any chance at a National Championship or entry into the playoff format. They held it together last week against Maryland, but now two weeks past the big upset loss and playing what appears to be a vastly inferior foe, they are ripe for Rutgers to give them a test. Rutgers is bowl eligible in their first season in the Big Ten, but a big effort here - even in a loss - would make them an attractive team for many of the pre-New Years bowls. Rutgers has a sneaky-good passing attack that ranks 19th in the nation gaining 8.3 passing yards per attempt. Their offense is designed to run first and average 57% run plays. In play action, Rutgers has been outstanding and this is a real weakness in the MSU secondary. Ohio State repeatedly used play action and little bubble screens to generate big plays after the catch and keep the chains moving downfield. I certainly don't expect Rutgers to execute to that degree of success, but will be far more successful than most observers believe possible. I expect them to gain between 8.0 and 8.5 net passing yards per attempt. In past games, MSU is just 3-16 ATS when they have allowed 8.0 to 8.5 net passing yards in games played since 1992. Â Take Rutgers. |
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11-22-14 | Kansas v. Oklahoma -25.5 | Top | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 2 h 50 m | Show |
15* graded play on Oklahoma as they take on Kansas in Big-12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 27 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-12 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2008. Play against any team (KANSAS) in a conference matchup that is a struggling rushing team gaining between 3 to 3.5 YPR and is now facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing between 3 to 3.5 YPR. The following game situations match my projections for the game. Oklahoma is a resounding 3-1 ATS this season, 10-1 ATS the past three seasons, and 63-16 ATS since 1992 when they have out gained their opponent by 2.0 or more yards per play; 4-2 ATS this season, 11-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 51-21 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more yards per play. Sooners roll big. |
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11-21-14 | San Jose State +14.5 v. Utah State | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
15* graded play on San jose State as they take on Utah State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 9:30 PM ET and will be seen on ESPN2/WatchESPN. Â The simulator shows a high probability that San Jose State will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. Here are a few historical precedents that support this play. SJS is a solid 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after scoring 6 points or less last game since 1992; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. Utah State has lost three quarterbacks in the month of October. Feshman Kent Myers has done a tremendous job coming in off the bench and has won three straight games. He has thrown for 531 yards on a remarkable 43-of-57 passing and a 173 QB rating. however, he has been sacked 8 times and you can bet SJS will be bring pressure from a wide array of angles. There is enough game film now that SJS can fully prepare for him. Moreover, his average throw has not been all that vertical. If you factor out the lone 70 yard completion his passes have been short. This also reflects that Utah State has done well after the catch and gained most of the passing yards after the catch. I fully expect SJS to tackle well and play a very disciplined scheme tonight that will make if difficult for Utah State to keep the chains moving. Take San jose State. |
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11-20-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +7.5 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they host the Kansas City Chiefs in NFL Thursday Night Football action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-5 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2003. Play against favorites (KANSAS CITY) off an upset win as a home underdog and with a winning record on the season. This system has gone an impressive 15-3 ATS over the past three seasons. Here is a second system that has gone 98-50 ATS for 66% winners since 1983. Play on underdogs or pick (OAKLAND) after seven or more consecutive losses. This system reflects the public's continued abandonment of a losing team, which then forces the line for these games to become significantly inflated. This is a game that Oakland can win. I would suggest playing a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Head Coach Sparono has a nice track record posting a solid 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) mark facing solid rushing teams averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry in all games he has coached. The Raiders offense has struggled to produce multiple play scoring drives. Yet, they rank 2nd best in red zone scoring. The key to this game is to get their ground attack to gain respect from a KC defensive front that ranks 25th in rushing yards allowed per game. This in turn can open up opportunities in play action situations for rookie QB Derek Carr to execute. Raiders have given up the league fewets sacks mainly because the passing game is forced to throw quick slants and outs. Yet, the ground attack can work against KC and then Carr will have that extra time to step up and throw accurate passes. The Raiders have tremendous speed on the perimeter that will be a major advantage when they catch KC in man coverage. I had Oakland last week as a winning cover and despite not having any wins, they are improving now that Carr has been under center. Take Oakland. |
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11-16-14 | New England Patriots +3 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 42-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take to the road to play the Indianapolis Colts in an AFC showdown set to start on Sunday Night Football at 8:30 PM ET. Â I'm getting the more experienced and vastly better team with points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-4 ATS mark for 85.2% winners since 2003. Play against any team (INDIANAPOLIS) off 1 or more straight 'overs' and i snow facing an opponent off six or more consecutive 'overs'. This is a pure situational system and it reflects the fact that the team with the 6 or more 'over' is also playing a high level of offensive execution. The system has gone a very nice 13-1 ATS over the last five seasons. Â Moreover, Brady is 12-4 ATS as a 'dog' spanning all games played over the last five seasons; 9-4 as a 'dog' in road tilts. Colts QB Luck has thrown seven interceptions in his last two games facing Belichick and the Patriots. Brady is playing the best QB play in the NFL. In the first four weeks, he struggled mightily and ranked 25th in the NFL. However, whatever was wrong was fixed thereafter as he ranks first in several meaningful offensive QB categories. For example, he connected on just 1 of 16 deep passes (20+ yards from LOS to point of reception) attempts in the first four weeks. Since, he has connected on 10 of 21 deep balls. Like Brady, Gronkowski started off slowly, but over the last four games, he ranks best in the NFL in overall rating, receptions, receiving yards, and yards after the catch. Luck has his offense running well, but the Patriots have the defensive matchups that will contain their offense. Hightower has been the second-best inside linebacker in pass coverage this season. The defensive unit has been playing extremely well and rarely make mistakes in coverage or gap disciplines. Take the Patriots. |
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11-16-14 | Oakland Raiders +10 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 6-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Raiders as they take on the San Diego Chargers in AFC West action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Raiders will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. The Raiders are much better than their record indicates. Raiders will have several solid matchups that can exploit while on offense. Rookie QB Carr gets the ball out quick averaging just 2.60 seconds from snap to release. This will minimize the Charger blitzes and force them to play a base cover-2 zone. In turn, Carr will be able to use play action to set up opportunities to his very fast WR that will be in man coverage. Further, Carr has one of the best guards in the NFL. Rookie guard Gabe Jackson has not allowed a sack in 322 pass block snaps. I also like the matchup with TE Rivera set up in the slot. This formation has done very well recently and it exposes the Chargers defensive weakness. Charger defense has been terrible and history shows they are just 4-15 ATS in home games after allowing 35 points or more last game since 1992. For his career, HC Sparano, is 12-2 ATS in road games when facing solid passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting an amazing 33-9 ATS mark for 79% winners since 1983. Play on road teams in Weeks 10 through 13 after six or more consecutive losses. This system has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS over the last three seasons. It's certainly a contrarian play, but it is the right one. Take the Raiders. |
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11-16-14 | Denver Broncos v. St. Louis Rams +10.5 | Top | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
25* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they host the Denver Broncos in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Too many points to be giving a solid Rams team at home in this spot. Denver's wideouts is the main cog that make the Denver offensive machine difficult to contain. However, I really like how the Rams secondary stacks up agains these wideouts. Rookie cornerback EJ Gaines is playing at a very high level and ranks third in coverage grade. Rodney McCloud is playing very well at free safety and is one of the best tacklers in the NFL. Another rookie Aaron Donald is playing like a veteran and has graded very high in run stoppage. Further, defensive end William Hayes ranks among the Top-10 in the NFL. I expect Manning to be pressured up the middle and will not have near enough time to go through his read progressions. On offense, The rams will have an excellent matchup targeting TE Jared Cook. The Rams have done well against elite offenses. They are a near-perfect  8-1 ATS when facing a strong offensive team in the second half of the season that are averaging >=5.65 yards/play in games played over the last 3 seasons. Despite the losing record, the Rams have been a very resilient team coming off a bad loss. Rams under the leadership of HC Fisher are 10-1 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points in games played spanning the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-12 ATS mark for 73.3% winners since 2008.  Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. Take the Rams. |
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11-15-14 | Arizona State v. Oregon State +8 | Top | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
25* graded play on Oregon State as they take on Arizona State in PAC-12 action set to start at 10:45 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that OSU will lose this game by fewer than seven points and have a great shot at a shocking upset win over no.7 ranked ASU. The media reports have outlined the path for the Sun Devils to gain a berth in the NCAA playoff Championship format. However, this path focuses not on the present,but rather the last game of the regular season against Arizona and then with a win the PAC-12 Championship game against No.3 Oregon. After five straight wins with four over ranked opponents it will be very difficult for ASU to not look ahead over a 4-5 Oregon State team. Oregon State has a wide open offense that ranks 18th in completion percentage and 30th in passing yards per game. ASU has been exploited in the back end of the defense in nearly every game and I fully expect this will be the case tonight. ASU ranks 89th in passing yards allowed and 86th getting an interception on just 2.2% of all opponent passing plays. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-8 mark using the MONEY LINE for 77% winners and has made 34 units/unit wagered averaging a +160 DOG play. Play on a home team using the money line (OREGON ST) that are off two straight losses to conference rivals allowing 31 or more points in those two losses and with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent. Further, I expect the OSU passing game to average between 7.5 to 8.0 net passing yards and to score at least 28 points. Good news in previous games. OSU is a solid 3-0 ATS when gaining 7.5 to 8.0 net passing yards in games played over the  last three seasons and 13-6 ATS when scoring 28 or more points in games played over the last three seasons. OSU Senior QB, Sean Mannion holds the PAC-12 Conference passing record and has a very strong 142 QB rating in home games this season. Last week he completed 31-of-41 passes for 419 yards and earned an amazing 170 QB rating. I don't see ASU being able to contain Mannion and the passing attack. Take Oregon State. |
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11-15-14 | Michigan State v. Maryland +12 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
25* graded play on Maryland as they host Michigan State in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Maryland will cover the current 12 point spread rather easily. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play against road favorites (Michigan State) that are elite offensive teams gaining >=440 YPG and is now facing an average offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG and after coming a poor defensive performance allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. 50% of these plays made based on the system criteria covered by more than 7 points. Spartans coming off a very emotional loss to Ohio State that eliminated their playoff hopes and also a Big Ten Championship. I fully expect the letdown factor to be quite strong and evident. Maryland is coming a near opposite type of win going on the road to Penn State and winning 20-19. Maryland defense was quite strong allowing just 42 rushing yards on 41 attempts and 177 yards passing yards. They also forced 4 turnovers. Take Maryland. |
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11-15-14 | LSU v. Arkansas +1 | Top | 0-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
15* graded play on Arkansas as they take on LSU in SEC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Arkansas will win this game and end their losing ways in SEC Conference action. I had played on Arkansas in their easy cover and near-miss at Mississippi State a few weeks ago. It simply demonstrates the immense depth and level of play inherent int he SEC. Arkansas, who has not won a Conference game in nearly two full seasons was installed as just an 11 point dog to the best team in the nation. Now they catch LSU off of two very emotional and physically pounding games. The last one an OT loss to Alabama in Death Valley. Losing in OT is one of the most difficult experiences coaching staffs have to overcome to get their college players prepared for the next game. I don't see that happening and I definitely see Arkansas winning. Since Miles has been the HC at LSU he is just 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) after a 2 game home stand; 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) facing solid rushing teams averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry. Take Arkansas. |
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11-15-14 | Mississippi State v. Alabama -9 | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
15* graded play on Alabama as they host Mississippi State in a huge SEc Conference matchup set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Tide will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-13 ATS mark good for 75% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ALABAMA)  that are off one or more consecutive 'unders' and in a game involving two very good teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more PPG  and after seven or more games have been played in the regular season. 50% of all these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. The following game situations match my expectations for the outcome of this game. State is just 4-9 ATS the past three seasons and 26-78 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points; 0-4 ATS the past three seasons and 8-19 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 35 to 42 points in a game; 2-6 ATS the L3 seasons and 9-36 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 6.5 or more yards per play. Alabama is a solid 5-2 ATS the L3 seasons and 33-11 ATS since 1992 when they scored 35 to 42 points. On the fundamental side, the execution has been far superior in home games than road games for the Tide. This is simply because of fan noise disrupting the sideline audibles and read communications from OC Kiffin. This will not be the case playing at home where the students know they need to be quiet while their offense is on the field. You can bet though when State has the ball, the fans will be in an absolute frenzy. Alabama in a blowout win. |
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11-15-14 | TCU v. Kansas +29 | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
15* graded play on Kansas as they take on TCU in a BIG-12 Conference matchup. This is simply far too many points and reflects the public's enthusiasm in playing the hot team. The TCU bandwagon has now grown to extreme levels where failure to cover situations run high. The line is currently at 28 1/2 and I see TCU willing his game by 21 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play against road favorites (TCU) that are excellent offensive teams gaining >=440 YPG) and is now facing an average offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG and after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. 50% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. This fact serves to reinforce by projection that Kansas will keep this a 21 point or less type of game. Take Kansas. |
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11-15-14 | Virginia Tech +4 v. Duke | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
25* graded play on Virginia Tech as they take on Duke in a massive ACC showdown set to start at Noon ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that V-tech can upset Duke and gain a valuable win that will certainly help their bowl game selection. The betting flows are certainly supportive despite the line moving from 6 to 4 1/2 points. The reason is that there has been a very high level of public bets being made on Duke. In fact, more than 76% of these wagers have been on Duke. Normally, we see the line go in the same direction as the irrational exuberance public betting. However, the big player (sharps) are placing large wagers on the Hokies that more than offsets the small public bets and has caused the line to move modestly lower. With the decline, the public will level of interest will grow with the believe that the line still offers a great bargain. Remember, that all of the research, game matchup analyses, wagering flows, and technical trends and systems serve ONLY to reinforce and to bring a form of logic to making this educated play. I have a system from the database that features an important game situation and the criteria that is set up for this play. Play on a road team using the money line (VIRGINIA TECH) in a conference matchup that is a solid good passing team gaining between 230 and 275 passing yards per game and is now facing an average passing defense allowing between 175 and 230 passing yards per game AND after more than seven regular season games have been completed. What is most impressive with this money line system is that it was made 62 units/unit wagered averaging a +145 DOG play since 2008. V-tech will be successful running the ball and I expect them to get 150 rushing yards. V-Tech has been a great money earner going 12-4 against the money line in road games when they rush for 3.5 to 4 yards per attempt since 1992. So, the combination of a solid ground attack will open up play action for vertical routes that will be in man or bracket coverages. Take Virginia Tech. |
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11-13-14 | California v. USC -14.5 | Top | 30-38 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
25* graded play on Southern Cal as they take on California in Pac-12 Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that USC will win this game by 17 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-4 ATS for 86% winners since 1992. Play against road underdogs (CALIFORNIA) that is an excellent offensive team gaining >=6.2 YPP and is now facing an average defense allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 YPP and after 7+ games, and after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last two games. 68% of these plays covered the spread by seven or more points. Cal is a horrid defensive team while USC sports one of the best defensive units in the nation. Cal ranks 125th in scoring defense allowing 43 PPG, 128th allowing 554 yards per game, 111th with a 0.492 points -per-play ratio, and 128th allowing 401 passing yards per game. The USC defense ranks 24th in scoring defense, 18th with a 0.286 points-per-play ratio, and 16th allowing just 33% of opponent third down conversions. Cal has a strong offense, but only marginally better than the USC unit. The vast difference is between the defenses. Further, CAL has not faced a defensive unit as fast, quick, and athletic as USC has become this season. CAL is an imperfect  0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better over the last 3 seasons. USC is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. terrible defensive teams who give up 37 or more points/game since 1992. Take Southern California. |
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11-12-14 | Kent State +14 v. Bowling Green | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
15* graded play on Kent State as they take on Bowling Green in MAC Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. I also like a 5* play on the first-half line that I will review later in the report. The simulator shows a high probability that KS will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Given the public betting flows that are reaching irrational exuberance levels on BG I expect this line to climb higher possibly getting to 14 1/2. So, wait and see what happens. I don't expect significant sharp action to take place on a MAC game, but it will not come till late this afternoon if at all. It's not that I expect we will need the extra points, but it never hurts to shop the line and get the best available, especially when there is confidence the line will move in our favor. It is rare that I ever suggest a first half play, but I strongly believe there is an added opportunity tonight. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-13 ATS for 75% winners since 2003. Play on road underdogs of 6 to 11.5 points using the first half line (KENT ST) in a game involving two poor defensive teams allowing between 28 and 34 PPG. Kent State may be the doormat in the MAC this season, but they are continuing to play hard and compete for the full game. Their passing defense has improved while BG's offensive pass attack has all but disappeared. BG was lighting up the scoreboard with a strong passing attack, but over the last three weeks it has dropped off a cliff. They gained 260 yards on 20-for-39 passing at Ohio University three weeks ago. Gained just 139 yards on 20-for-33 passing in a loss at home to Western Michigan. Just last week gained only 170 passing yards on 17-for-34 passing in a 27-10 win at Akron.  I expect the KS secondary to play well and make it difficult for BG to move the chains tonight. Take Kent State. |
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11-10-14 | Carolina Panthers +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in an NFC Conference matchup set to start at 8:30 PM ET. If you look at the 'flash' stats, you immediately think this line is far too small given how well the scoreboard has read for the Eagles this season. However, when you tear deep into the matchups there readily appears the idea that this line is inflated. The media outlets are continue to focus on the stellar play of QB Sanchez last week after taking over QB duties for an injured Foles. He had a tremendous preseason, but let's be honest that was preseason and he now must face a desperate Carolina team that needs a win to stay in playoff contention. The Panther’s defense will be looking to disrupt Sanchez and make his first start as an Eagle a difficult one. They are a solid group that can bring pressure from anywhere. I see a huge advantage in collapsing the pocket with pressure up the middle, which will not allow Sanchez the area to step up and throw. This is nearly the same matchup I saw in our 25* Jets win over the Steelers. Defensive end Charles Johnson will lead the way in the QB pressure department. After a slow start to the season, Johnson has picked up his play as of late, earning solid pass rush grades and seven quarterback hurries in his last three games. Second year defensive tackle Kawann Short has also been solid rushing the passer in 2014. Short has accumulated 15 total pressures and a +8.3 pass rush grade this season. Knocking Sanchez off his rhythm and as a result he Eagle receiver routes will be a key factor in a potential Carolina victory. Keep an eye on Luke Kuechly as well. He leads all ILB in the NFL with 75 tackles and 3 passes defended, and 22 stops against the run. The Panthers have arguably the best safety in the league in Thomas Decoud, who ranks best in several categories including overage snaps per reception. For the first time in a long time, the Panthers have both Williams and Stewart in the backfield for tonight' s game. This duo combined with the extreme mobility and size of Newtown is going to be a big problem for the Eagles defense. The loss of LB Ryans is so huge that not even a platoon of LB will be able to recreate his intensive and disciplined play. You can be assured the Panthers will exploit this are of the field and target Ryan's replacement. however, they can also choose to use that Eagle weakness as a decoy and use formations that given the look going after that area, but instead using play action to connect with 6-5 240 pound Benjamin on the perimeter and in the slot. The Eagles corners will be overwhelmed by his size, speed, quickness, and hand strength. So far, my writeup looks like a 42-0 Carolina win, but the point is that even if this game becomes high scoring, Carolina has the matchups to compete in that high tempo style of game. The Eagles have a solid matchup with Maclin going up against average at-best corners in Norman and Cason. The pass routes will be shorter and will feature more slants, which is what Sanchez is great at delivering. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-11 ATS mark for 75% winners since 2008.  Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. Of the many projections showing that Craolina will cover easily is that they will gain 6.0 to 6.5 net passing yards per attempt. In past games, the Panthers are 2-0 ATS this season, 4-0 ATS the past three seasons, and 24-9 ATS since 1992 when they have gained between 6.0 and 6.5 net passing yards. Carolina is a solid 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half since 1992. Take the Panthers. |
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11-09-14 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders +12 | Top | 41-17 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Denver Broncos in AFC West action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by fewer than 12 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 1983. Play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points (OAKLAND) after seven or more consecutive losses and the current game taking place in the second half of the season. 48% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. Over the past three seasons, it has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS. Interesting too, is the fact that Denver is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when facing terrible teams getting outscored by 10+ points per game on the season in the second half of the season since 1992. On ematchup to watch is the great play of OLB Khalil Mack going up against Denver's LT Ryan Clady, who missed 2013 season and is still struggling to get the rust off. He gave only his first sack last week in the Patriots loss, but he has been awful in run blocking. Mack ranks best in the NFL by a wide margin in run stop and I strongly believe Clady will need double team help against him in blitz situations. Even for a Manning led team, it will be very difficult for the Broncos to be taking the Raiders as a serious opponent and may have a drastic letdown from the humiliating defeat last week in Foxborough. Take the Raiders. |
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11-09-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. NY Jets +6 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 7 m | Show |
15* graded play on the New York Jets as they host the Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that the Jets will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-20 mark for 71% winners since 1983. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season (NY JETS) after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games and is a terrible team winning |
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11-09-14 | Dallas Cowboys v. Jacksonville Jaguars +7 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 6 m | Show |
15* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on the Dallas Cowboys in Wembley Stadium, London, set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Jacksonville will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Dallas has a great ground attack led by Murray, but I fully expect the Jacksonville defense led by LB Geno Hayes, to contain Dallas. Hayes ranks best in the NFL in run stop of the 22 qualifying OLB in the NFL. Further, he has not missed a tackle on the season. On the other side of the ball, I look for JAX RB Denard Robinson to have a big day and take pressure off of QB Bortles to try and make plays and sustain drives. Dallas is just 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when facing struggling passing defenses allowing seven or more passing yards/attempt in games played in the second half of the season over the last three seasons; 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when facing struggling defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. HC Garrett is  0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after having won five or six out of their last seven games as the coach of Dallas. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 1983. Play against any team (DALLAS) off two or more consecutive upset losses installed as a favorite and is a good team winning between 60% to 75% of their games and now playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Take JAX. |
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11-09-14 | Atlanta Falcons v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 6 m | Show |
15* graded play on Tampa Bay as they host Atlanta in NFC Conference action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TB will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager using an 11* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 58-21 mark using the money line for 74% winners and has made 32 units/unit wagered since 1983. Play against road teams using the money line (ATLANTA) after failing to cover the spread in four out of their last five games and is a struggling team winning between 25% to 40% of their games and is now playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Over the past three seasons, this ML system has gone 8-1 ATS for 89% winners. Further, the Falcons are a shocking 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when facing terrible passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 64% or worse over the last three seasons. Take Tampa Bay. |
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11-09-14 | San Francisco 49ers +6 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 2 h 44 m | Show |
25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the New Orleans Saints in a very important matchup for both teams that is set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning on the road in New Orleans. I suggest making this a combination wager consisting of a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. It will be the 49er defensive unit that will rise up and dominate this game. They are a vastly under rated group, but one that is fully capable to getting the job done against the fifth best scoring offense in the NFL. 49ers rank second allowing 292 offensive yards per game and third allowing 6.1 yards-per-pass play. Keep an eye on rookie ILB Borland, who is playing at an All-Pro level for the 49ers defense. He will responsible for getting RB Ingram down in space and I believe he will get the job done. This is critical to monitor as Ingram has forced an NFL-best 15 missed tackles since coming back from injury in Week 7. Another rookie OLB, Aaron Lynch, is playing great too. He has the second most QB pressures among rookie 3-4 OLB. He will pass rush from the left side and Brees must be aware of his presence. I expect SF to score between 22 and 28 points. In past games, they are 11-2 ATS when scoring within that range in games played over the past three seasons. Last, SF is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when facing passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt over the last three seasons. Take San Francisco. |
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11-08-14 | Ohio State +4 v. Michigan State | Top | 49-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
25* graded play on Ohio State as they take on Michigan State in BIG Ten Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that OSU will win this game. I like making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. This ratio of ML/Line serves to maximize the total rate of return of the game expectations and probabilities. This marks only the third time under HC Meyer that OSU is installed as a dog and the first time since November 7, 2012. They were installed as 2 point dogs at Wisconsin and won 21-14 in OT and won at Michigan State 17-16 installed as 2 1/2 point dogs. MSU is excellent on both sides of the ball. Spartans are averaging the fifth-most points (45.5) and the ninth-most yards per game (515.2) in the FBS. However, OSU brings a secondary that can eliminate the Spartans vertical routes. OSU has allowed the fewest plays (17) of 20 yards or more in the nation this season.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 80-39 ATS mark for 67% winners since 2008. Play on a road team (OHIO ST) after covering the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games and with a winning record on the season. Here is a second system that has gone 35-12 ATS for 75% winners since 2003. Play against home favorites (MICHIGAN ST) after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games and is now facing an opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. 56% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points and serves to reinforce my belief that OSU will win this game. Again, Meyer has been a great coach, especially when installed as a DOG. He is 26-8 ATS (+17.2 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in all games he has coached since 1992 and 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) as an underdog in all games he has coached since 1992. I believe the OSU defense is a better defense than the Spartans and one that MSU has not faced in terms of speed, athleticism, and gap discipline this season. From the start of the game, look for OSU defensive front to get penetration and push the MSU offensive line off of the LOS. The OSU defensive front is excellent at securing blockers and not allowing them to get to the second level allowing LB to fill gaps and make stops for minimal gains. Also, if OSU gets penetration with only the down lineman and does not need to bring blitz pressure, it all but eliminates play action and the vertical MSU passing attack. Take Ohio State. |
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11-08-14 | Alabama -7 v. LSU | Top | 20-13 | Push | 0 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
25* graded play on Alabama as they take on LSU in 'Death Valley' at night starting at 8:00 PM ET. I mention this fact only to illustrate the reason why Alabama is favored on the road in this difficult venue - arguably the toughest in football. I also believe that LSU has had their share of some emotional wins and last week's late 4th quarter win over Mississippi is certainly one of them that enters into LSU folklore. No doubt this is the best opponent that LSU will face yet this season and one that is better on both sides of the ball.  The simulator shows a high probability that Alabama will win this game by 10 or more points. LSU ranks 17th in the nation with a 0.273 points-per-play ratio. But, Alabama ranks 2nd with a 0.216 points-per-play ratio. On offense Alabama ranks 20th with a 0.492 points-per-play ratio while LSU is 37th posting a 0.419 ratio. Lsu ranks 68th gaining 393 offensive yards per game while Alabama ranks 10th gaining 505 offensive yards per game. The most important stat is third down conversion where LSU ranks 99th converting 35.2% of those situations and Alabama ranking 2nd converting 55%. I see the Alabama defense putting LSU in difficult third down situations and more that happens, the greater the margin that Alabama will win by. I know the history of night games and how frenzied the stadium fans will be for this contest, but Alabama just has too many weapons on both sides of the ball for LSU to overcome. Even the fourth down magic and trick plays from HC Miles will not be enough. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-10 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2003. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LSU) off two straight wins against conference rivals and now facing an opponent off a double digit road win. Alabama is expected to score at least 28 points. LSU is a miserable 0-2 ATS this season, 0-4 ATS the past three seasons and 11-53 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points. Take Alabama. |
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11-08-14 | West Virginia v. Texas +3.5 | Top | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
15* graded play on Texas as they host West Virginia in a Big-12 matchup set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at getting a much needed home win. Unless the line moves to 3.5 points, I don't see any reason to place a combination wager using the money line and line for this DOG. The risk/reward and DOG ML just don't provide enough return on investment to be valid. The following game situations match the projections for the game. WVU is just  1-6 against the money line (-7.3 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons; 13-21 against the money line (-15.3 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play since 1992; Texas is a solid  26-11 against the money line (+15.1 Units) when they rush for 150 to 200 yards since 1992;  6-2 against the money line (+7.6 Units) when they commit 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons; 27-9 against the money line (+16.6 Units) when they force and commit the same number of turnovers since 1992. Take Texas. |
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11-08-14 | Duke v. Syracuse +4 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -102 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
25 * graded play on Syracuse as they take on Duke in a ACC Conference action set to start at 12:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Syracuse will win this game. Given this favorable projection, I suggest making this a combination wager comprised of a 21* play using the line and a 4* amount using the money line. This combination or ratio of Ml and Line amounts maximizes the total rate of return of this opportunity based on the game projections. Duke is on a 3-game winning streak, but were outgained in each of those wins by a minimum of 100 yards. Duke has risen to No. 22 in the national polls thanks in large part to their great focused attention to detail. They don't make mistakes either by penalty, turnovers, or allowing sacks. However, teams like Duke can't always rely on mistake-free football to win games continuously. The matchup I really like is the Syracuse defense against the Duke ground attack. Duke ranks 13th gaining 5.7 YPR and 38th at 203 YPG. Syracuse defense ranks 16th allowing just 3.3 YPR and 23rd allowing 123 yards per game. Stopping the ground attack and forcing Duke into more passing downs is a great game plan to defeat them. Duke has no deep vertical threat as evidenced by their 5.5 yards-per-pass that ranks 122nd in the nation. Syracuse will put complete pressure at the LOS and use mostly cover-1 on early downs. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-8 ATS mark for 80% winners since 2003. Play against road favorites (DUKE) that is an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 21 and 28 PPG and after a win by six or less points. 50% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. I also see Syracuse scoring 28 or more points. In past games where they have scored 28+ points they are 12-2 ATS over the L3 seasons; 2-0 ATS this season, and 90-23 since 1996. Duke is a money burning 5-10 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 28 or more points. Take Syracuse. |
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11-08-14 | Baylor v. Oklahoma -5 | Top | 48-14 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 0 m | Show |
15* graded play on Oklahoma as they take on Baylor in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 10 or more points. Baylor has the most touchdown drives of 1 minute or less (17) and is tied for most touchdown drives of 2 minutes or less (28) this season. The Bears have more 2-minute touchdown drives than 51 FBS teams have total touchdown drives. Here again, is the superior coaching and prepartion they provide in big conference showdowns. Bob Stoops is 16-3 at home against ranked opponents in his career. Among coaches with at least 10 such games, no active coach has a better winning percentage than Stoops. Stoops is a solid Stoops is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in home games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game; 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse; 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-9 ATS mark for 79% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites (OKLAHOMA) in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP) and after gaining 525 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 56% of these plays covered the spread by 7+ points. Take the Sooners. |
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11-08-14 | Georgia -10 v. Kentucky | Top | 63-31 | Win | 100 | 1 h 0 m | Show |
15* graded play on Georgia as they take on Kentucky in SEC action set to start at Noon ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by 14 or more points. They had a horrid game last week in their loss to Florida and I fully expect them to bounce back with a great effort today. They are still in the hunt to with the East Division and make it to the SEC Championship game and they need impressive efforts to impress the playoff committee to rise back in the rankings. Georgia is a solid 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-20 ATS mark for 64% winners since 2008. Play on any team (GEORGIA) that is an excellent rushing team gaining >=4.8 YPR and is now facing a team with a struggling rushing defense allowing between 4.3 to 4.8 YPR and after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game. Take Georgia. |
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11-07-14 | Utah State v. Wyoming +7.5 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
15* graded play on Wyoming as they take on Utah State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Wyoming will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at securing a big home win. Given this favorable situation, I suggest making a combination wager comprised of a 12* play using the line and a 3* amount using the money line. I believe you will be able to secure a +250 money line figure for this opportunity. Never hurts to work the order and get the best possible money line. I do see a modest chance that the line could shift to 8, which in turn would make the money line closer to the +260 level. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-5 mark for 86% winners and has made 27 units/unit wagered over the past 10 seasons. Play on a home team using the money line (WYOMING) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival and with eight defensive starters returning. Granted, there are injuries to these defensive units in any given season. Yet, when a team starts with this many returning starters they are able to recover more quickly when an injury does occur. Wyoming is also a solid 24-7 ATS (+16.3 Units) after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Wyoming team also knows that this is essentially a bowl game meaning if they win this game, they then have a weak New Mexico team on the road in the season finale, that would make them 6 win bowl eligible. They also face the 6-e Boise State Broncos next week at home and is also a game they will be home dogs, but a game that do have the potential to win as well. Path is much easier with a win tonight. Take Wyoming. |
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11-06-14 | Cleveland Browns +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
15* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in NFL Thursday NIght action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I suggest adding a 2.5* play using he money line in addition to the 15* play using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 22-6 mark for 79% winners and has averaged a +135 DOG play making 23 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play against home teams using the money line (CINCINNATI) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games and with the current game occurring in weeks 10 through 13 of the NFL season. Here is a second money line system that has gone 22-9 for 71% winners using the money and has averaged a +150 DOG play over the past 10 seasons.  Play on any team using the money line (CLEVELAND) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games against opponent after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game. Much has been made about the absence of the Browns ground game in recent weeks that was so dominant in the first several games of the season. I highly expect to see the Browns ground attack back in full force. Note that  the Browns are a solid 10-4 against the money line (+19.0 Units) in road games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games since 1992. Moreover, HC Lewis is just Lewis is 2-11 against the money line (-10.2 Units) in home games when facing excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt as the Bengals. Cincy won against JAX last week, but their were numerous matchups where the Jaguars did quite well and ones that i see Cleveland doing even better. Bengals defense is highly suspect and ranks 30th in the NFL allowing 395 yards-per-game. Bengals can't stop the run ranking 30th allowing 140 yards-per-game. I feel confident that the Browns ground game will be strong and in turn opens up play action for Hoyer to utilize and will have more ample time to scan the entire field and make high percentage passes. Browns defense is solid and getting better. They rank 8th in scoring defense allowing 21.1 PPG and 6th in a very reliable and meaningful opponent points per play ratio at 0.307. I am well aware of the trends showing how strong Bengals are at home and how the Browns have been big money burners in road tilts, but this is a much different  and unique situation. I can fully offset those trends by simply stating the fact that Hoyer is 5-1 ATS as a road under dog in game splayed over the past three seasons. Take the Browns. |
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11-03-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. NY Giants UNDER 51 | Top | 40-24 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
15* graded play 'UNDER' Indianapolis-New York Giants in NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 49 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-8 'under' mark good for 78% winners since 1983. Play 'under' with any team in the month of November where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (Colts) and after going over the total by 28 or more combined points total in their last three games. As you can readily se by the criteria of this system, it reflects the steady public enthusiasm to bet 'OVER' with games invovling teams like the Colts, who have been involved with high scoring affairs. As we see far too often in the NFL, what happens one week or short series of weeks, often changes to the opposite quite quickly. 48% of these plays went 'under' by 7 or more points. Giants are expected to gain between 300 and 350 offensive yards and average 5.0 to 5.5 yards-per-play. In past games, the Giants are 6-1 'under' when gaining between 300 to 350 net offensive yards over the last three seasons. Colts are a solid 7-1 'under' when they have allowed 5.0 to 5.5 yards-per-play in games played over the L3 seasons. Coughlin is a solid 26-13 'UNDER' after having lost two out of their last three games as the coach of the Giants. Looking at a larger historical smaple size, the Giants are  72-37 'UNDER' after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games since 1992; 11-3 'UNDER'  off 1 or more straight overs over the last three seasons. Even more impressive is the fact that Giants are 9-1 'UNDER'  in home games when facing dominant ball control teams averaging 32+ minutes TOP and21+ FD's per game since 1992. Colts rnk best in the NFL in scoring offense at 31.2 PPG and 4th in a far more meaning stat points-per-play at 0.42 ratio. What is going unnoticed is that their defense is an under rated unit. With the exception of the 51 points they gave up to a red hot Steeler offense last week, they had allowed less than 17 points in four-of five games. They started out the season with two dreadful games allowing 31 to Denver and 30 to Philadelphia. However, both of those offenses are quite impressive and rank very high in the NFL offensive rankings. The Giants offense is significantly weaker than all three of the teams mentioned and I strongly believe the Giants will struggle to move the chains and get into the red zone tonight. Moreover, I believe the Colts fully realize they are the better team and do not require long vertical routes to score points. A more conservative approach designed to move the chains and minimize any turnovers is what I believe you will see tonight. One matchup that i see being minimized by the Colts is the emergence of Giant TE Donnell. he has had some very good games, but when Manning has been faced with a strong pass rush - even from 4 down lineman - Donnell has had to stay at the LOS to help protect Manning. Further, one of the best safeties in the league will matched up against Donnell in Mike Adams. This all but eliminates Manning's outlet pass route and hot receiver. Take the 'UNDER' |
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11-02-14 | NY Jets +10 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
25* graded play on the New York Jets as they take to the road to play the Kansas City Chiefs in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that the Jets will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-8 ATS mark for 79% winners since 1983. Play on road underdogs or pick (NY JETS) after 6 or more consecutive losses in November games. This simple money making system has gone 7-1 ATS for 88% winners over the past three seasons. Here is a second system that has gone 35=10 ATS for 78% winners since 2003. Play on road teams (NY JETS) after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games and is a struggling team winning 25% or less of their games on the season. This system has gone 15-2 ATS over the past three seasons for 88% winers. The Chiefs have an solid secondary, but have struggled against the run this season. The Jets with Vick under center now bring two valid weapons for KC run defense to stop. RB Ivory has been quietly one of the best RB in the NFL. In his 113 touches this season, he ranks fifth in elusive rating and has produced a 4.7 YPR despite one of the worst run blocking OL in the NFL. Vick still is a duel threat and has two solid weapons to look to in Wilkerson and Cumberland. The latter, I believe will be quite effective in slot routes where easy reads can lead to high percentage short pass plays or in man coverage against a linebacker can lead to excellent opportunities in the vertical game down the seems. I fully expect the Kets to have a significant lead in TOP. This is critical fort the Jets to compete well enough to have the game decided in the fourth quarter. Jets are quite vulnerable at corner with converted safety Allen now considered the veteran of the group. Chiefs have the NFL sack leader in Houston (10), but given the sold ground game and Vick's elusiveness, I don't believe he will be a dominating factor going up against RT Giacomini. Last, Vick took all of the reps with the first team this week and that is more than enough time for the entire unit to adjust to a left-handed throwing QB. Take the Jets. |
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11-02-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Houston Texans +2.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Houston Texans as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Texans will win this game. Lets' look at the technicals first. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-18 ATS mark for 65% winners and has made 25 units/unit wagered since 1983. Play against road favorites using the money line (PHILADELPHIA) and is a solid team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) and is now facing an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) and after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. Situationally, Houston is a solid 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. I see Houston scoring points and within the 22 to 28 point range. In past games, the Eagles have been a money burning 3-10 ATS L3 seasons and 26-50 ATS since 1992 when allowing 22 to 28 points in a game. Eagles will get their share of offensive yards with a projection between 350 and 400 total. However, Houston has done very well in these types of games sporting a perfect 5-0 ATS record over the last three seasons. The Harvard grad QB Fitzpatrick has done very well in these types of matchups. He is 12-6 in games lined between pick-em and +3 and is 6-2 ATS against elite teams winning between 66 and 76% of their games. JJ Watt is always a matchup problem for any opposition and must have all offensive coordinators with more sleepless nights than usual. This week the Eagles come in with a banged up offensive line. Watt should get to a significant amount of time against banged up right guard Todd Herremans and left guard Evan Mathis’s backup Matt Tobin. Both Herremans and Tobin have each graded out negatively against the run and even lower in pass blocking so far this season. Watt continues to be a pass rushing machine as his +41.7 pass rushing grade more than triples 2nd ranked Jason Hatcher’s grade. On the other side of the ball Fitzpatrick is flying under the radar and ranks second best in deep pass completion percentage. This will certainly expose the weak and highly suspect corners, especially Williams. Take the Texans. |
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11-01-14 | Arizona v. UCLA -6.5 | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
50* graded play on UCLA as they take on Arizona in PAC-12 action set to start at 10:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game by 10 or more points. The Bruins (6-2, 3-2) haven't lost three in a row at home since going 0-5 at the Coliseum in 1971. They moved their home games to Pasadena permanently in 1982. They are in fifth place, but one game out of first and can leapfrog one of the teams they are chasing in Arizona with a win tonight. UCLA dropped five straight in this series before Hundley joined the program two years ago. He has thrown for 515 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions with a 77.4 completion percentage in two consecutive wins over the Wildcats. He is also leading all FBS QB with a 76.8% completion percentage on first downs. Further, he gets a ton of time in the pocket due the strong ground attack that ranks a PAC-12 high 4.5 yards per rush between the tackles. They can also spread the field and open up the middle for both the ground attack and play action with high percentage opportunities over the middle of the field. Then you add the fact that Hundley is the PAC-12 leading rushing QB with 415 rushing yards and you can readily see how difficult, if not impossible, it will be for Arizona to keep them contained. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-13 ATS mark for 75% winners since 1992. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference tilts (ARIZONA) in a game involving two explosive offensive teams scoring >=34 PPG. 55% of these games covered the spread by 7 or more points. The following game situations match the projections I have for this game. UCLA is a solid 9-2 ATS L3 seasons when they have gained 6.5 or more yards per play. Arizona is just 4-14 ATS when allowing 28 or more points L3 seasons and 0-4 ATS when allowing 450 to 500 total offensive yards L3 seasons. Take Arizona. |
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11-01-14 | Oklahoma State +13 v. Kansas State | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
15* graded play on Oklahoma State as they take on Kansas State in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. Given this huge five-pack of 15* Titans, I am providing just a brief for each game highlighting the ket technicals and game situations for each play.  The simulator shows a high probability that Ok State will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-7 ATS mark for 81% winners since 1992. 53% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points.  Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (KANSAS ST) after allowing 9 points or less last game and is now facing an opponent after 2 straight losses by 17 or more points. Take the Cowboys from Oklahoma State. |
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11-01-14 | Notre Dame v. Navy +15 | Top | 49-39 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
15* graded play on the Navy as they take on Notre Dame in NCAAF action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that Navy will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Notre Dame last played two weeks ago in their very emotonal loss to FSU in a game they dominated in the first half and then let get away from them in the second half. The way the game ended as well is an 'event' that is very close to the emotional overtime loss that College teams endure. Further, Navy runs a very complex ground attack and I have to admit, I don't see Notre Dame being fully prepared for this game. In their history they have essentially never done well against strong ground attacks. In fact, they are just 5-24 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed an opponent 200 to 250 rushing yards in a game. Take the Navy Midshipmen |
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11-01-14 | Stanford +8.5 v. Oregon | Top | 16-45 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
15* graded play on the Stanford Cardinal as they take on the Oregon Ducks in PAC-12 conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Stanford will lose this game by fewer than 7 points.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-2 ATS mark for an incredible 92.3% winners since 2008. Play on any team (STANFORD) average rushing team gaining between 3.5 to 4.3 YPR and is now facing a poor rushing defense allowing between 4.3 to 4.8 YPR; after 7+ games and after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. 73% of these games covered the spread by 7 or more points and this underscores my strong belief that Stanford can win this game. I like using a combination wager comprised of a 11* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line on Stanford. |
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11-01-14 | Arkansas +11 v. Mississippi State | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
25* graded play on Arkansas as they take on NO.1-ranked Mississippi State in SEC action set to start at 7:15 PM ET and will be televised on ESPN2/Watch ESPN.  I also like adding a 3* amount using the Money Line for a total risk of 28* units. The simulator shows a high probability that Arkansas will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. It is hard to actually see Arkansas winning this game, but many of you know that about once a year I have had a 17+ DOG win outright. I always remember when Tebow lost to Mississippi 31-30  at home in the Swamp and were installed as 24 point dogs September 27, 2008. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a losing record of 27-51 for just 35% winners, BUT has made a whopping 77 units/unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a remarkable +475 DOG play. I am seeing +350 right now for the Razorbacks. Play on road underdogs of +315 or higher using the money line (ARKANSAS) after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and is now facing an opponent after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games.  Here is a second system that has gone 107-35 for 75% winners since 2003 and averaged a +105 DOG play. Although the average line of this system does not equal the line for this specific game, there have been a significant number of games wagered that were in the +300 and higher levels. Play against a home team using the money line (MISSISSIPPI ST) after allowing 475 or more total yards/game in their last three games and is now facing an opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. Arkansas is expected to average 7.0 to 7.5 net passing yards per attempt. Not good news for State as they are a horrid 2-10 against the money line (-9.8 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. I relied on the example of one of my biggest upsets I have ever enjoyed, but it also points to how incredibly DEEP the SEC Conference is this season. Arkansas has not won a conference game in quite a long time and are 4-4 on the season with all four losses occurring against SEC foes. They now take to the road to face not only an SEC team, but the NO. 1 ranked team in the nation and yet are installed as barely double digit dogs. Take Arkansas. |
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11-01-14 | Florida +11 v. Georgia | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
15* graded play on the Florida Gators as they take on Georgia in SEC Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that the Gators will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Georgia is off a hard fought 45-32 win at Arkansas. However, I don't expect much positive momentum coming from that game as HC Richt is just 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) off a double digit road win as the coach of Georgia. Further, Georgia is just 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) off a double digit road win since 1992. Florida has been a money making 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992; 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) after a 2 game home stand since 1992. Take the Gators. |
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11-01-14 | Virginia +4 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 10-35 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
15* graded play on Virginia as they take on Georgia Tech on an ACC Conference matchup set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UVA will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-11 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2003. Play against home favorites (GEORGIA TECH) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP) after 7+ games and after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. 50% of these games covered the spread by 7 or more points and serves to reinforce my strong view that UVA wins this game. I strongly believe that UVA will score at least 28 points and are 3-0 ATS this season when achieving that level and 7-3 ATS over the past three seasons. Georgia Tech is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games since 1992; 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games since 1992. Take Virginia. |
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11-01-14 | East Carolina v. Temple +7.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Temple Owls as they take on the East Carolina Pirates in American Athletic Conference action set to start at Noon ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at winning the game. I like playing this as a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-4 ATS mark for 85% winners since 2008 and is 12-2 ATS over the past three seasons. Play against road favorites (E CAROLINA) that are excellent offensive team gaining >=440 YPG and is now facing a solid offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG and after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. What I like most in this game is Temple has a vastly under rated passing defense. Overall, they rank 33rd allowing 22.8 PPG and 24th in a far more meaningful points-per-play stat of 0.290. ECU is off a 31-21 home win over cellar dweller UCONN and failed to cover as 28 points favorites. In fact, they were tied in the early part of the 4th at 21 points. They had just 1 turnover and are a money burning 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Temple has been nailed by the turnover bug and as their HC coach said in press statements,'just have not played their brand of football'. He also challenged his team this week stating that this is the last top-25 ranked team they will play and that this is a pivotal time'. I have a high level of confidence that Temple will look to win this game and not just show up and attempt to compete with the ranked Pirates. Further, their QB P.J. Walker, who has tossed five picks in the last two games, has learned the hard way that there are times to just simply throw the ball away and move on to the next play. Nearly all of his INT have been a result of trying to create big plays. So, this is a great spot for a team coming off two poor efforts, to come out highly motivated to upset a ranked foe on their home turf. Take Temple. |
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10-31-14 | Cincinnati v. Tulane +6.5 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
25* graded play on Tulane as they take on Cincinnati in American Athletic Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a meaningful probability that Tulane will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great opportunity at winning this game. An alternative wager is place a 19* play on the line and a 6* play using he money line. Tulane has enjoyed the month of October and have a very nice 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in October games spanning the last three seasons. Conversely, Cincy HC Tuberville is a money burning 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games in all games he has coached since 1992. On the injury front, what I really like is the return of Tulane QB Tanner Lee from a shoulder injury and RB Sherman Badie from a ankle strain. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-4 ATS mark for 85% winners since 2003. Play on any team (TULANE)that is an average rushing team (+/- 40 RY/G) and is now facing a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG after 7+ games fo the current season and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. This system has gone 11-0 ATS over the past five seasons. Further, my research and SIM prohjections make very confident that Tulane will score at least 28 points. In past games, Tulane is 7-2 ATS when scoring 28 or more points L3 seasons. Cincy is a money burning 2-7 ATS when allowing 28 or more points over the past three seasons. Take Tulane. |
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10-30-14 | Florida State -3.5 v. Louisville | Top | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
15* graded play on Florida State as they take on Louisville in NCAAF action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 7 or more points. I also like FSU and the 'over' for a 5* parlay. A more conservative option is play a 15* play on FSU and a 10* play 'over' with no play on the parlay. Much has been said about the manner that FSU has won games and how 'fortunate' they have been to remain undefeated and ranked second in the polls. However, Louisville enters this game unranked and with 2 losses. Further, they have had a weaker SOS than FSU based on the opponents faced. Louisville lost at UVA23-21 and were installed as 4 point road favorites. They also lost at Clemson 23-17 and covered as 9 point road dogs. Louisville ranks very high in the defensive rankings nationally, but again it was done against a far weaker schedule than any SEC ranked team has faced. I mention the SEC as a solid comparison to the athleticism and team speed tat FSU brings to any game they play. In my opinion, FSU has yet to put even 1/2 half of football together at max levels and output. They showed signs of it last week in their 'lucky' win over Notre Dame. FSU was completely dominated in the first half on both sides of the LOS and then made adjustments and completely dominated ND immediately at the start of the second half with near execution perfection on display. What changed at the half, was that Winston significantly cut down the time he held the ball and was getting rid of quickly, in rhythm, and highly accurate. I know Louisville ranks second in scoring defense at 13.7 PPG and best allowing 238 opponent yards per game, and best at just 3.5 YPP allowed, but they have not faced a team like FSU yet this season. Despite, the media attention on FSU being a ranked fraud of sorts, they do rank 12th in the nation with a 0.535 points per play ratio. This is a critical measure of a team's offensive efficiency. This also points out that this ratio also includes the sloppy possessions where the execution is far below average. By deduction then, it magnifies just how incredibly efficient and unstoppable the offense becomes when executing with focus and attention to details. The latter is what I expect to see throughout the entire game. By comparison, Louisville ranks a dismal 89th with a 0.345 PPP ratio and I am confident the FSU defense will do very well in containment and force Louisville to earn their way to the end zone; eliminating the flash vertical score form Louisville's arsenal. Take FSU. |
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10-27-14 | Washington Redskins v. Dallas Cowboys -9 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they host the Washington Redskins in an NFC East matchup set to start on MNF at 8:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-17 ATS mark for 72% winners since 1983. Play against underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and when playing next game on Monday night. Here is aMonday Night system supporting Dallas and has gone 55-24 ATS for 70% winners since 1983. 50% of these plays have covered the spread by 7+ points.  Play on favorites (DALLAS) off a win against a division rival and when playing on Monday night. The following game situations match the projections from the SIM for this contest. Washington is an imperfect 0-6 ATS L3 seasons when they commit 2 or more turnovers. At the beginning fo the season, this game would have been lined somewhere at Dallas by 6, but given how well they have played and how Washington has struggled amid injuries and just poor management, the line is now 10 points. Derspite, the fact that this is two teams heading in opposite directions, the line does not yet reflect just how good Dallas has become in recent weeks. Further, Eagles lost and now with a win, Dallas can take full control fo the Division knowing they have Eagles coming up on Thanksgiving. Washington now has McCoy under center and the last time McCoy started an NFL game was Week 11 of 2011 with the Cleveland Browns. Washington will need to estbalish the run early with Moris, but that could be something quite unrealistic in this matchup.  Comeback Player of the Year candidate, linebacker Rolando McClain has resurrected his career in a big way and is currently second-best among ILBs overall and in Run Stop Percentage, tops in the NFL at the position. McClain will have the task to stop HB Alfred Morris and he will have plenty of help from his teammates as well. With seven straight 100-yard games, 43 missed tackles, seven TDs. Murray is having a career year and it’s not all attributed to the work of his OL. He is averaging 2.87 yards per attempt after contact, best in the NFL of any HB with over 100 rushes. Then you add all of the other offensive weapons at Romo's disposal and you can see why Dallas is expected to win this game and cover ATS easily. |
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10-26-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 | Top | 34-51 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Pittsburgh Steelers as they take on the Indianapolis Colt sin AFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Steelers will win this game. Given the dog line I like making this a combination wager using a 19* play on the line and a 6* play using the money line. SIM projects that Steelers will gain between 5.5 and 6.0 yards-per-play and when they done that in previous games they have gone an impressive 9-2 ATS L3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-6 ATS mark for 82% winners since 1983. Play against road favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) that is an average defensive team allowing between 18 to 23 PPG and is now facing an defensive team allowing between 23 to 27 PPG and after allowing 9 points or less last game. This system has not lost in the past five seasons going a perfect 6-0 ATS. Further, Pittsburgh is a solid  25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in home games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Steelers are also a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games facing excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game since 1992. The Steelers are playing increasingly better on both sides of the ball. Notable is Jason Worilds 3-game stretch posting 1 sack, four hits, and 11 hurries. The Colts will have their hands full too with coverage of Antonio Brown, who ranks best in the NFL in several gradings in the stats. Moreover, the Steelers OL has records increasingly more positive grades in both run blocking and pass blocking. Steelers dominate both sides of the ball and win. Take the Steelers. |
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