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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-26-14 | Baltimore Ravens -3 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game by 4 or more points. Baltimore is the second ranked team in the NFL - second behind the Denver Broncos - in my algorithm based projections. Surprising to most, but Baltimore is building positive momentum each passing week and are playing at avery high level on both sides of the ball. The success of quarterback Joe Flacco and the passing game against a Bengals defense that struggled against Andrew Luck in Week 6 will be a dominant factor in this game. Flacco has the sixth-best QB rating (95.55) and fifth best Accuracy Percentage at 77.3% in the NFL. Yet, is has been his ability to find Torrey Smith and Steve Smith downfield that makes him most dangerous, especially against the Bengals suspect secondary. Flacco’s Deep Passing Accuracy of 57.7 ranks second finding the two Smith’s for a combined nine receptions, 333 yards and five touchdowns on deep passes. TE Owen Daniels is out for this game, but his replacement Crokett Gillmore is an exceptional athlete and at 6-6 and 251 pounds provides an ample target for Flacco to connect with on check downs. Not to mention his 4.8 40-yard dash speed that can lead to big plays down the seems in play action. Bengals were hit bad last week losing to the Colts 27-0. They are a money burning 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) after a loss by 21 or more points since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-8 ATS mark for 80% winners since 2003. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BALTIMORE) after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. Take Baltimore. |
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10-26-14 | St. Louis Rams v. Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 42 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Kansas City Chiefs as they take on the St. Louis Rams in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that the Chiefs will win this game by 9 or more points. SIm projects that KC will establish the ground game successfully and average between 4.0 and 4.5 YPA. In past games, they are 7-1 ATS when gaining between 4 and 4.5 YPR spanning the L3 seasons. Rams are coming off an impressive win over Seattle installed as 6 1/2 point dogs winning 28-26. However, Fisher is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points in all games he has coached. Points-per-play is a very important barometer at this point of the season given the valid sample sizes. In this matchup, KC enjoys very significant advantages on both sides of the ball. Rams rank 31st in the NFL allowing 0.484 PPP and are facing a KC offense ranking 14th posting a 0.366 PPP ratio. On the other side of the ball, the Rams have posted a 0.331 PPP good for a 24th ranking while the KC defense ranks 12th allowing 0.340 PPP. STL defense ranks 31st allowing 29.3 PPG, 28th allowing 4.8 yards-per-rush, 28th allowing 148 rushing yards per game. KC ranks 4th averaging 31 rushing attempts per game and 3rd averaging 141 rushing yards per game. Further, Rams will have trouble stopping KC even on third downs noting that KC ranks second converting 51% of those opportunities. Looking at player personnel, the Rams will have their hands full on offense. OLB Justin Houston has generated 29 pressures, leading all 3-4 OLBs in Pass Rush Productivity while also grading out at in Top-5 against the run. Tamba Hali, on the other side, has 17 pressures of his own, coming in at 16th among 3-4 OLBs with at least 180 snaps. Take Kansas City |
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10-25-14 | Ohio State v. Penn State +15 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
50* graded play on Penn State as they take on Ohio State in BIG Ten Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that PSU will lose this game by fewer than 11 points and has a reasonable shot at a major upset win on national TV. Given this favorable projection, I will suggest making this a combination wager consisting of a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-14 mark using the money line for 76% winners and has made 32 units/unit wagered. Play against a road team using the money line (OHIO ST) that is an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an excellent defensive team allowing |
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10-25-14 | Florida Atlantic +28 v. Marshall | Top | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
15* graded play on Florida Atlantic as they take on Marshall in Conference-USA action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that FAU will lose this game by fewer than 27 points. Here are some supporting game situations. FAU is a solid  6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992. Marshall is undefeated, but their strength of schedule is very, very weak. If they played the schedule that FAU has faced, there is no way that Marshall would still be undefeated. FAU is now seasoned and experienced against some of the elite programs in Nebraska and Alabama. That experience simply minimizes the athleticism that Marshall has at their skill positions. I see this as a 14 to 20 point game and would not be surprised to see this game close at the half. Take Florida Atlantic. |
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10-25-14 | Michigan +17 v. Michigan State | Top | 11-35 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Michigan as they take on Michigan State in a huge rivalry in the Big Ten Conference set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Michigan will lose this game by fewer than 15 points. Of note is the fact that Michigan HC Hoke is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game in all games he has coached. To date, Michigan has played vastly stronger opposition and I believe this can help significantly in their matchup against MSU. The Spartans defense is quite good and rank high in the top-10 nationally in several key categories. Michigan State has made first contact at or behind the line of scrimmage on 54% of opponents' rushes, the highest percentage for any Power 5 defense. Further, Michigan State is averaging 12.6 total pressures (QB knock downed or hurried) per game this season, second-most among Power 5 schools. Last season the Spartans recorded 17 against Michigan, including seven sacks, the Wolverines' most in any game in the last three seasons. So, the history lesson tells us how good the Spartans defense has been, but this is a rivalry game and Michigan will play far better than last year's humiliation. Revenge is an overused and misunderstood term in sports, but in this case, revenge is  certainly a major factor that will support Michigan. The Wolverine defense is very good in their own right ands rank 7th nationally allowing 301 yards-per-game, 6th allowing 2.7 yards-per-rush; 4th allowing just 93 rushing yards per game. MSU ranks first in the nation in scoring, but I strongly believe that Michigan has the defensive personnel to matchup well and make it difficult for MSU to light up the scoreboard. Take Michigan and the Points. |
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10-25-14 | Rutgers +21 v. Nebraska | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 2 h 58 m | Show |
15* graded play on Rutgers as they take on Nebraska in Big Ten Conference action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Rutgers will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. Nebraska is the better team and you get no argument from me on that fact. However, the line is just vastly inflated and based on the matchups, is more of 13/14 point Nebraska win. Rutgers is a talented squad and have the ability to run a balanced offensive attack and move the chains and will score points. Nebraska will run the ball close to 50 times in this game, but it will not be as easy as past games have been. Rutgers was simply intimidated last week playing at Ohio State and the sell-out massive stadium and the noise levels they generate. Lincoln is no bargain either, but it not nearly the hostile environment that Ohio State was for Rutgers. The matchups point to a much closer and much more competitive game then the line reflects. Take Rutgers. |
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10-25-14 | Texas +10 v. Kansas State | Top | 0-23 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 57 m | Show |
15* graded play on the Texas Longhorns as they take on Kansas State in Big-12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET. Texas HC Strong is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a road underdog in all games he has coached;  10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) in road games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games; 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games when playing against a top-level team winning > 75% of their games; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when facing excellent offensive teams averaging >=6.25 yards/play. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. This also good be an upset as well noting that Texas is 7-1 against the money line (+9.6 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. The Texas pass defense ranks 8th best in the nation allowing only 5.6 yards-per-pass attempt. I strongly believe they match up very well against a K-State team that likes to throw the ball more than run. K-State ranks 10th in the nation averaging 8.9 YPPA, but will struggle against the Texas secondary today. Take the Longhorns. |
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10-24-14 | Troy +14.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
25* graded play on Troy as they take on South Alabama in Sun Belt Conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Troy will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Troy is coming off arguably one of the worst losses in school history. They lost to Appalachian State 53-14 and were installed as 7 1/2 point favorites. Now, they play on a national TV audience ESPNU and I strongly believe they will play extremely well tonight. Despite winning just one game this season, Troy does have a remarkable track record in rebound type games. They are a perfect  6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 42 points or more last game in games played over the last three seasons. Troy runs a well balanced offensive attack and this style of play is a major problem for the SA defensive unit that is quite good against the run. I strongly believe that Troy will get the ground game going and then you will see a very good freshman QB in Brandon Silvers use play action to complete high percentage passes and keep the chains moving. He has completed 69% of his passes on the season and thank ranks very high in the national rankings both as a player and as team. Further, he has completed 43-60 passes (72%) for 367 yards and 6.12 yards-per-pass attempt. Take Troy. |
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10-21-14 | Arkansas State v. UL-Lafayette OVER 54.5 | Top | 40-55 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
15* graded play 'OVER' in the Arkansas State-Louisiana Lafayette game set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that more than 50 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-10 ATS mark 'over' for 77% winners since 2008. Play 'over' with any team against the total (ARKANSAS ST) that is off a road win against a conference rival and is nwo facing an opponent off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog. The record for this system has gone 21-4 'over' for 84% winners spanning the last three seasons. SIM projections for this 'over' play match the following game situations. LL is a solid 9-1 'over' the past three seasons when rushing for 125 to 150 yards; 5-0 'over' when gaining 4.0 to 4.5 yards per rushing attempt. Further, Hudspeth is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in home games in the second half of the season as the coach of LL; 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders. Take the 'OVER' |
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10-20-14 | Houston Texans v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 105 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
50* graded play on the Pittsburgh Steelers as they host the Houston Texans in a Monday Night Tilt set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will win this game by more than 5 points. Let's first look at the supporting cast of technical data. The following game situations match the projections form the SIM. Houston is just 2-9 ATS the past three seasons and 12-38 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 22 to 28 points; 0-3 ATS the past three seasons, 6-19 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 400 to 450 total yards; 2-7 ATS L3 seasons and 11-33 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 400+ offensive yards. Pittsburgh is a solid 6-1 ATS L3 seasons when gaining 250 to 300 net passing yards. The following are historical situationas that support Pittsburgh. Houston is just  1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) facing defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the last 2 seasons; Pittsburgh is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when facing excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards-per-attempt since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Now for the fundamental evaluations. Watt has an absurd overall grades and the majority of that quotient is attributed to rushing the passer. He has 18 stops on the year while also accumulating four sacks, 20 QB hits, 17 hurries, and six batted passes. Roethlisberger will be the man he is chasing who is the fourth-best QB in the NFL under pressure among those with at least 180 drop-backs. Roethlisberger has the second-best completion percentage under pressure at 60.5% while throwing three touchdowns and no interceptions. What is most interesting is that there is little, if any correlation, to Watts' great game performances and the team win-loss record. In games where he has been a meanous on the field and disrupting offensive flows getting five or more combined sacks, batted passes, and run stops, the Texans are 3-4. Texans are 15-17 when he gets a combined 2 sacks, batted passes, or run stops. So, in my opinion, he is one of the greatest defensive players ever, but not one person, even a defensive one that scores TD's, can offset the other weaknesses on the team and make a ajor difference in the win-loss ledger. I also believe the Steeler OL led by Marcus Gilbert will perform well as a unit and give Big Ben the time he needs to complete passes and move the chains. I also liek the defensive matchup advantage the Steelers have against slot receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who has caught 13-of 14 targets good for 3.10 yards per route. The Steelers safety Polamalu is having another brilliant season and will a major factor in stopping the Houston ground attack and will also be called up to cover Hopkins. Despite Waat's efforts, the Texans defense still ranks just 29th allowing 397 yards per game. This unit will be going against a Steelers offensive unit that ranks 4th in the NFL gaining 397 yards per game, third averaging 4.9 yards-per-rush, 4th averaging 137 rushing yards-per-game, and 8th gaining 259 pass ing yards per game. Takle the Steelers. |
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10-19-14 | NY Giants v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 47.5 | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
15* graded play 'UNDER" the posted total in the Giants-Cowboys matchup set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 45 points will be scored in this game.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 49-18 'UNDER" for 73% winners since 1983. Play 'under' with home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DALLAS) off a upset win as an underdog and is a top level team winning 75% or more of their games on the season. As outlined in the other 15* Dallas play, the ground attacks are going to control the clock and I expect the Cowboys to have a significant edge in TOP. Keeping the Giants offense off the field serves to limit any rebound Eli Manning and his youthful group of pass catchers would have to compete in this game. Read the report and that fully explains why I really like the combination of Dallas and the 'UNDER'. I would recommend doing a three-team round robin parlay with these three plays as well and not to exceed a 5* play amount. |
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10-19-14 | NY Giants v. Dallas Cowboys -4.5 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
15* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the NY Giants in NFC showdown set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 9 or more points. Giants were humiliated in last week's stunning loss in Philadelphia 27-0. They are a much better team than was seen in that ridiculous effort and are much better on the road than home based on ATS stats of various measures. Yet, Dallas i arguably playing the top and most complete football on both sides of the LOS. The Cowboys DeMarco Murray has been running through opposing defenses this year with ease. He leads the league in forced missed tackles on rushing attempts with 35, while the next highest has 25. Murray has 792 yards rushing this season, a 250-yard lead on the second-leading rusher in the league, and has had 471 of those yards come after contact. One of the few negatives of Murray’s game this year is the three fumbles he has had, which is the most among running backs. Some observers have noted his heavy work load, but he has not been hit hard all that often this season. So, I believe he is still playing with fresh legs and Dallas OL is vastly better (there is no comparison actually) to that of the Eagles OL. I strongly believe that Giants will have immense difficulty stopping the Dallas ground attack and then will be exposed in vertical routes using play action when Romo sees cover-1 situations post snap. Giants are just 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game since 1992; Coughlin is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game as the coach of NY Giants. Dallas is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are 0-6 ATS the past three season when allowing 150 or more rushing yards. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-14 ATS mark for 73% winners since 2003. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) after a loss by 10 or more points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. Take Dallas. |
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10-19-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Oakland Raiders +4 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
15* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Arizona Cardinals in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Raiders will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like playing this as a combination bet comprised as an 11* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-8 mark for 79% winners since 1983. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARIZONA) off 2 or more consecutive 'overs', a good offensive team scoring between 23-27 PPG and is now facing a struggling defensive team allowing between 23-27 PPG. Oakland came off the BYE and played by far their best game against a solid San Diego Chargers team. I strongly believe this will carry over to this matchup. Arizona loves to blitz and do so on 40% of snaps in 2014. Maurice Jones-Drew is back in the lineup and he was arguably the best blocking back in pass protection in the NFL in 2013. It goes largely unnoticed, but he is stellar with technique picking up blitzing corners and LB and this will give Carr that few extra fractions of a second to scan the field and deliver the ball in man coverage. The Raiders very young wideouts are extremely fast and execute disciplined routes. San Diego was exploited badly when any corner tried to bump them at the LOS and the same can be expected today in this matchup. Despite the record, Oakland now playing with confidence and they know they have a great shot at winning this game at home. |
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10-19-14 | Carolina Panthers +6 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 49 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they take on the Green Bay Packers set to start at 1:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will lose this game by fewer than 6 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 90-45 ATS mark for 67% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers and is now facing an opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. Carolina appears to like extended road trips. HC Rivera is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) after playing their last game on the road;  8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. Carolina is a solid 41-18 ATS (+21.2 Units) facing struggling rushing defenses allowing >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992.  Here is a money line system that has been a great money maker with a 23-9 mark making 21 units/unit wagered averaging a +130 DOG play since 2003. Play against any team using the money line (CAROLINA) after beating the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game and is a solid team winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. Green Bay is coming off a real score in Miami and needed Rogers magic to win the game in the final seconds. Carolina is coming off a tie in arguably a game they could have won in OT. The Packers really struggle to contain an opponents ground attack. Newtown is become quite good in play action pass and has the mobility that can extend plays and put immense pressure on the Packers secondary. Newtown gained a season-high 107 rushing yards on a career high 17 rushing attempts last week. This is solid evidence that his ankle and ribs are near 100% healed and he will be a real problem for GB to contain. Newton is currently the top-graded QB with a +15.0 overall grade. Time in Pocket stats show that Newton is averaging 2.53 seconds to attempt a pass where he averaged 2.73 in 2013. He also has had the ball out in under 2.5 seconds on 51.8% of his drop-backs as compared to 40% in 2013. This is a critical matchup as Newton's duel threat serves to offset the mountain of injuries they have suffered with running backs this season. I believe you will see Carolina look to run the ball behind their best grading OL in Ryan Kalil and have success. Take Carolina. |
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10-18-14 | Notre Dame v. Florida State -9.5 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Florida State Seminoles when they take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in NCAAF action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-11 ATS for 76% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites (FLORIDA ST) - off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against a conference rival and is now facing an opponent after a home game where both teams scored 31 or more points. 63% of the games played or 80% of the winning cash tickets covered the spread by 7 or more points and this underscores my belief that FSU will cover this game easily. The SU record is an incredible 41-4 and the average score has been a 46-18 home win. Like so many of you, I am ready to turn the page on Winston. I never condone any behavior by any athlete or programs that would protect their 'entitled' players. FSU is a very respectable university and one that is run with a strong southern moral fiber through it. I know this for fact. I also know that the media and 'haters' are on a witch hunt now to attack a young man. Again, not saying if he got paid for the autographs or not, but how difficult would it be for any of us, to say no time and time again, to agents, brokers, and slime ball web sites, when offered huge amounts of cash - and being a broke college football player. So, before I ever point the finger at anyone, I do try and put myself in their shoes first. If he did violate the school's conduct policy, FSU will do the right thing. Ok, enough of that. What I do see is a matchup where FSU has significant advantages in the speed an quickness departments on both sides of the ball. I just do not see how Notre Dame can overcome this simple fact and be able to dominate even one side of the LOS. No doubt, that FSU will look to spread the field and expose the middle of the ND defense. In the spread, Winston can roll out and elude any pressure and then make easy to complete pass plays or run the ball for significant gains. I don't see how ND defense, although they have been solid so far this season, will get critical stops of first down and force FSU into long situations. Quite frankly, with the speed FSU has on offense, it will be extremely difficult for ND to stop FSU on any down, especially if they are caught in man coverage on the perimeter. I don't liek the media attention on the FSU program anymore than you do. Yet, looking at the facts of this game, the matchups, and the game situations, FSU is the clear play. ND is 1-6 ATS over the past three seasons and 13-63 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points. Based on the facts, it would be a monumental ND effort for them to contain FSU to fewer than 28 points. Take FSU. |
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10-18-14 | Southern Miss +9.5 v. North Texas | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
25* graded play on Southern Mississippi as they take to the road to play C-USA rival North Texas set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Southern Miss (SMU) will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot a monumental upset. I see mostly +290 money lines and would look to work to get +300 throughout the day. With the game starting at 7:00 PM ET. I would book this bet with the lines available no later than 5:00 PM ET and the reason is protect yourself from adverse line movements. I have seen situations like this in the past and I expect some heavy flows to begin late afternoon on Southern Mississippi. The public has been steadily feeding North Texas since the line opened with nearly 70% of all wagers on them. At these extremes, it is not unusual to see the 'sharps' come in late. Both teams are average at best running teams. North Texas struggles quite frankly and if you take out the blowout win over a vastly inferior Nicholls State team where they gained 324 yards, they are not impressive at all. What I am greatly impressed with is the SM passing attack led by QB Nick Mullins, who has attained a 199.3 QB rating. He is vastly better than he was in 2013 where he completed 49.3% of his passes, gaining 6.44 YPA with 13 TD and 14 INT and was sacked 25 times. In 2014 he is 142-for-244 for 58% completions and 1604 yards, gaining 6.57 YPA. His reads are vastly better and I strongly believe he will have a huge night against a highly suspect NT secondary. Last week Mullens went 36-for-54 for 426 yards (67% completions) and a 147 QB rating against a much stronger Middle Tennessee State team. SM was installed as 16 1/2 point dogs and nearly pulled off the upset in a shootout type of affair. In fact, the last three weeks have shown marked improvement by Mullens, the OL, and the entire offensive unit ands this builds confidence. Take Southern Mississippi. |
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10-18-14 | Miami (OH) v. Northern Illinois -13 | Top | 41-51 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
15* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Miami (Ohio) in MAC Conference action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that NI will win this game by 17 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-19 ATS mark for 71% winners since 2008. Play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MIAMI OHIO) after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games and is a struggling team winning |
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10-18-14 | Clemson v. Boston College +5.5 | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
15* graded play on Boston College as they take on Clemson in ACC Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BC will lose this game by four or fewer points and has a great shot at wining the game. Here again, I like the use of a combination wager comprised of an 11* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Clemson is coming off several solid games, but are just  5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games since 1992;  2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 49-10 ATS MARK FOR 77% WINNERS SINCE 2008. Play against any team in a conference matchup (CLEMSON) that is a struggling rushing team gaining between 3 to 3.5 YPR and is now facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing between 3 to 3.5 YPR. This is strength against strength and I strongly believe that BC will get the job done very well on the ground. After their recent games, I am concerned that Clemson may show up a bit flat and think the game is won before it even starts. Take Boston College. |
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10-18-14 | Virginia +3.5 v. Duke | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
15* graded play on Virginia as they take on Duke in a very important ACC showdown for both teams.  The simulator shows a high probability that UVA will earn the win here. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager ONLY if you can get at least +145 on the money line. I believe you may be able to get this and perhaps a touch higher as some books move the line to +3 1/2. So, this combination wager would consist of an 11* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 63-23 ATS for 73.3% winners since 2008. It is 12-2 ATS this season. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (VIRGINIA) off 1 or more consecutive 'unders' and is a solid offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game. Simply, UVA has been able to run the ball very well over the past three weeks and have been very stingy allowing rushing yards. Duke has not been able to stop the run allowing 200+ rushing yards in their last four weeks. UVA will control the LOS and will have fantastic pass opportunities in man coverage on play action. Take Virginia. |
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10-17-14 | Temple +7 v. Houston | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
15* graded play on the Temple Owls as they take on the Houston Cougars in American Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 20-6 mark for 77% winners since 2008 and has made 21 units/unit wagered. It has averaged a +135 DOG play. Play against a home teams in conference tilts using the money line (HOUSTON) turnover prone team with 2.5+ TO/game committed and is now facing an opportunistic team with 2.5+ TO/game forced. This next system is truly a great one posting a 210-22 losing mark for just 49% winners, BUT has made a whopping 97 units/unit wagered averaging a +152 DOG play since 2003.  Play on a  road team using the money line (TEMPLE) in a game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning. So, given the favorable projections calling for the upset, I like making this a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Speaking of defense, Temple is play some of th ebest in the Conference and is a large reason they are 4-1 on the season. Through five games, Temple's opponents have been in the red zone 12 times, scoring just six times and giving the Owls (50 percent), the top red zone defense in the nation. Temple's offense is 19 of 23 (82.6 percent) in the opponent's red zone. The Owls have scored 13 touchdowns and six field goals. Last season, Temple allowed 102 points in the fourth quarter. Through five games this season, the Owls have allowed just three points in the fourth quarter. Houston has doubt now with who is leading the offense after sophomore QB John O'Korn, who  led all true freshmen nationally last season with 28 touchdowns and was second in the conference behind only Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater, was benched in favor Greg Ward. Further, Houston lost their defensive leader to season-ending injury last week and Temple loves to work the middle of the field and they do it quite well. Take Temple. |
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10-16-14 | Utah v. Oregon State +2.5 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
15* graded play on Oregon State as they take on Utah in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 10:00 PM ET.  This is an important swing game as both teams look to get one game closer to bowl eligibility. The winner likely makes the postseason while the loser faces an uphill battle based on the remaining schedules. OSU’s Sean Mannion continues his march toward the conference passing record, while Utah’s QB status is ongoing with Travis Wilson and Kendal Thompson essentially competing for playing time. The simulator shows a high probability that OSU will win this game. Should the line get to 3 1/2, which I would not rule out given the public wagering flows, then I would suggest making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-7 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2003. Play against road favorites (UTAH) that are an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 21 to 28 PPG and after a win by 6 or less points. 50% of the plays made based on this system have covered the spread by 7+ points. The system has gone 7-1 ATS over the past three seasons for 88% ATS winners. Oregon State is coming off of a 'rested' week and are in a favorable historical situation. HC Riley is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) after a bye week as the coach of Oregon State. What I mean by 'rested' is that they last played October 4 at Colorado and won 36-31 and covered as 4 point favorites. They have had extra rest. Many are going to coin this a BYE week but they have not had 13 days of rest between games. Utah has had the same extra rest, but that has not been a favorable situation for them. The reason is that in most of these games, Utah has been favored against a notably weaker opponent and the line gets far too inflated due to public sentiment. Last Mannion torched the Utes for 443 passing yards and five touchdowns in their 51-48 OT win. Certainly, Mannion figures to be under more pressure this time against the Utes, who lead the FBS with 28 sacks despite having played a game or two fewer than most schools. Utah is giving up an average of 21.4 points to rank third in the conference, more than a touchdown lower than last year's mark. However, the OSU offensive line is quite good and they take two TE they are excellent pass blockers that can double team DE and seal off the perimeter too for spread formation running plays. The Utes did exceptionally well against UCLA, but OSU is a vastly different style of football team on both sides of the ball that will make it far more difficult for the Utes in this matchup. Take Oregon State. |
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10-12-14 | NY Giants +2.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 0-27 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
25* graded play on the New York Giants as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in a huge NFC showdown set to start on Sunday Night Football at 8:20 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Giants will win this game. Based on the risk/reward profiles, I would only play a combination wager if this line would move to +3 1/2. It is unlikley that this will occur, but if it does, then consider a combination wager using a 19* play on the line and a 6* play using the money line. After an 0-2 start, the Giants new and improved West Coast variation offense is playing at a very high level. The Eagles are 4-1, but have attained this mark by playing the second easiest schedule of any NFL team to date. The Giants run the most 3 WR sets in the NFL and this presents huge problems for a highly suspect Eagle secondary. Moreover, the emergence of rookie WR Beckham as the third WR presents a real big problem given his speed and great route execution. Then add the Giants solid running game that will be going against the 20th ranked run blocking defense, which will set up play action for Eli to look vertical to Beckham, who will definitely be in man coverage, and you have the recipe for a dominating win. Eagles defensive front ranks 22nd in defensive pass blocking. Further, the Giants OL is quite good anchored by the best in the NFL in OT William Beatty. There is has been trash talking from the Eagles defensive players saying they are going to make Eli's night an absolute nightmare by bringing pressure. Yet, I don't see this happening under this new varied WC offensive scheme. Note that, Eli now ranks third in the NFL getting his passes off quickly in 2.5 seconds or less on 67% of the snaps. Giants defensive line ranks 3rd best against power running plays. The Eagles have struggled to get the ground game going against far weaker defensive front seven. Foles is having his own problems this season and ranks just 23rd this year at 82.5. He has a 53.3 rating on passes of 20+ yards in the air, getting picked off a league-high four times on 31 attempts, which is also tops in the NFL. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-31 mark for just 51% winners, BUT has made a whopping 40 units/unit wagered since 1983. The average play has been a +220 DOG. Play against home teams using the money line (PHILADELPHIA) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread and is a top-level team winning >= 75% of their games and now playing a marginal winning team winning between 51% to 60% of their games. |
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10-12-14 | Washington Redskins +6.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they take on the Arizona Cardinals in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by four or fewer points. I like making this a combination wager using a 21* amount on the line and a 4* play on the generous money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-5 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2003. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in October games. This system has gone an impeccable 7-1 ATS for 88% winners over the past three seasons. Washington is the best 1-4 team in the league, at least on paper. Getting on the road for many losing record teams offers far more peace of mind and ability to just focus on playing the game and executing game plans. Cousins has played well and I look for him to be more like his first two starts than his last two. He ranks fifth in the NFL averaging 8.1 yards-per-attempt and ranks in the Top-10 in both completion percentage beyond 20 yards and total passing yards. Arizona has two of the best corners in the game in Peterson and Cromartie, but there are many other opportunities to exploit downfield. Further, the Washington defense matches up very well against the Cardinals offensive scheme, which will be limited given their QB situation. Hatcher ranks  best with 4 sacks by a 3-4 DE and is second behind Watts in pass rushing grade at his position. LB Kerrigan ranks  third among 3-4 OLB in pass rushing grades and second in the league causing 15 QB hurries. I strongly believe that Arizona will struggle to move the chains on offense and that Washington will dominate the LOS on both sides of the ball. Further, in last Sunday's loss to Denver the Cardinals lost two more starters in OLB Shaughnessy and DE Calais Campbell. You can bet that Washington will look to attack the left side of the defense where Shaughnessy plays. Take Washington. |
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10-12-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Miami Dolphins +3.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the Green Bat Packers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like a combination wager for this play consisting of a 20* play on the line and a 5* play on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-7 ATS mark for 81% winners since 1983. Â Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) off 2 or more consecutive 'overs', a good offensive team scoring between 23 to 27 PPG against a defensive team allowing between 23 and 27 PPG. The following game situations match the SIM projections. Miami is a rock solid 5-1 ATS L3 seasons when the rush for 5.0 to 5.5 yards per attempt; 9-1 ATS L3 seasons when they score 22 to 28 points; 5-1 ATS L3 seasons when they gain 350 to 400 total offensive yards. Further, Philbin is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home underdog as the coach of Miami. Here is a money line system supporting the upset projection and has posted a 33-9 mark for 79% winners over the past 10 seasons and has made 30 units/unit wagered. Play against road teams using the money line (GREEN BAY) after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game in weeks 5 through 9. The average play has been a +120 dog and has gone 2-0 already this season. The Miami defense is quite good , especially in the secondary. I fully expect that unit to cool down the red hot combination of Rogers to Nelson in this game. Miami runs the ball very well and Green Bay has significant trouble stopping the run. Based on my metrics, GB defensive line ranks 25th in the NFL in run blocking. Further, they rank 18th in pass rush efficiency. Miami's OL ranks second best in the NFL behind St. Louis, in run blocking and rank 14th in pass protection. In Week 1, the Packers were easily defeated by the Seattle Seahawks, who rank 6th best currently in run blocking. Further, Miami's OL does an fantastic job getting to the second level. They rank best in the NFL by a wide margin in yards gained at the second level. So, I fully expect Lamar Miller to have a big day running the ball. Yet, it doesn't stop there either, as Knowshon Moreno is expected back from his elbow injury. QB Tannehill will have many options available to him in play action to keep the chains moving. Take Miami. |
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10-11-14 | USC -2 v. Arizona | Top | 28-26 | Push | 0 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
25* graded play on USC as they take to the road to play Arizona in a major PAC-12 showdown set to start at 10:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that USC will win this game by 7 or more points. Arizona is off to an impressive 5-0 start, but their good fortune is going to run out tonight. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 67-29 ATS mark for 70% winners over the past 10 seasons.  Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (USC) that are average rushing team gaining between 3.5 to 4.3 YPR and is now facing a team with an average rushing D allowing between 3.5 to 4.3 YPR. 42% of these plays covered the spread by 7+ points. SIM projects that the Trojan offense will be in full gear gaining 450 to 500 total yards. In past games, Arizona is an imperfect 0-4 over the past three seasons and just 4-22 ATS since 1992 when the have allowed 450 to 500 offensive yards. Further, Arizona is just 3-13 ATS over the past three seasons and 20-84 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points. Arizona is off one of the biggest wins in school history, but are vulnerable to showing up flat in this matchup. HC Rodriguz is just  2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1992. Trojan HC Sarkisian is a solid money making 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after allowing 37 points or more last game in all games he has coached since 1992. Take the Trojans. |
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10-11-14 | LSU v. Florida | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
15* graded play on Florida as they host LSU in SEC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Florida will win this game by three or more points. In past seasons, this matchup has nearly always had national championship implications, but in this year's SCE, these two teams are average competitors. Still, the winner of this game will have just one loss and could work their way into the SEC Championship picture. Obvioulsy, I strongly believe that Florida, play at home in the Swamp, will be the winner and maintain their hopes. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-7 mark for 81% winners using the Money Line and has made 22 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play on a home team using the money line (FLORIDA) after a win by 6 or less points and is now facing an opponent after a loss by 17 or more points. LSU was hammered by Auburn 41-7 last week. That type of loss is going to be impossible for LSU to shake off. The LSU program is accustomed to inflicting scoreboard pain on their opponents and they have not been defeated this badly on the field of play in years. Moreover, they are just  1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half since 1992. This clearly reflects how difficult it is to recover from shocking losses. Take Florida. |
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10-11-14 | Houston +7.5 v. Memphis | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
15* graded play on the Houston Cougars as they take on the Memphis Tigers in American Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that that Houston will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. I like playing this as a combination wager comprised as a 11* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-19 mark for 74.3% ATS winners since 2003. Play on a road team (HOUSTON) after scoring and allowing 17 points or less points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. 50% of the games played based on this system covered the spread by 7+ points. In their last game, the Cougars had UCF on the ropes with a strong drive late in the 4th quarter, but a brilliant play causing a fumble preserved the UCF win. I believe this provides a confidence building experience for the team instead of a demoralizing one knowing they had a strong UCF team defeated. Moreover, UCF is vastly better opponent than Memphis and I fully expect Houston to add another win to their streak of 6 straight road conference covers. Take Houston |
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10-11-14 | Oregon v. UCLA +2.5 | Top | 42-30 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
15* graded play on UCLA as they take on Oregon in PAC-12 action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game and take a major step forward to playing in the PAC-12 Championship game. Oregon suffered a humiliating defeat losing to a +24 point dog in Arizona. With last week's major upsets, Oregon hopes were resurrected. However, a second loss to UCLA will all, but end any conference title hopes and playing into the 4-team National Championship playoff. UCLA played late last week after all the upsets and lost to an inspired Utah team. They too, know another loss ends title hope. They are playing at home and I strongly believe they are the better team, especially on the defensive end. The Oregon defense has been torched this season both through the air and on the ground. I don't see how they will keep UCLA from scoring at least 28 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections for this game. UCLA is 5-1 ATS the past three seasons when gaining between 300 and 350 net passing yards; 17-6 ATS the past three seasons when they have scored 28 or more points; 8-1 ATS over the past three seasons when they have gained 500 or more total offensive yards; 9-1 ATS the past three seasons when gaining more than 6.5 yards-per-play. Take UCLA. |
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10-11-14 | Texas +17 v. Oklahoma | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Texas Long Horns as they take on Oklahoma in Big-12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET. It will be played on the tradition neutral field, the Cotton Bowl, in Dallas, TX.  The vision of a 50-50 crowd in Dallas and the bus ride through the Texas State Fair to get to the Cotton Bowl have helped make this one of the best rivalries. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. Oklahoma is off a very tough loss last week to TCU and now must rebound quickly to play in this historic rivalry game. Texas ranks 38th in my NCAA Football ranks with a 2-3 record, but have not played close to their potential. This is the perfect opportunity for them catch a wounded and down trodden Sooner team and make it a very heated battle for four quarters. Further, the public is all over the Sooners under the presumption that they will be one angry team after last week's loss and take it all out on the Long Horns. Problem is that the Sooners are wounded both mentally and physically. Texas has also been a victim of poor field position in nearly every game. 31% of their possessions have started inside their own 20-yard line and that ranks 119th in the nation. Their opponents have only had 24% of their possession start inside the 20 and thanks as 26th least in the nation. This is  factor of many situations, but they do tend to even out over the course of the season. For example, not all punts will due inside the 20, but Texas has gone through this with several unlucky bounces pinning them in. Based on the matchups, I fully expect them to enjoy far more favorable start field position in this game. HC Charlie Strong is a perfect  9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games off 2 or more consecutive 'unders' in all games he has coached since 1992; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games when playing against a top-level team that wins > 75% of their games in all games he has coached since 1992. Sooners are coming off hard fought games against WVU and TCU in the past two weeks. The secondary was gutted for more than 300 + passing yards in both games. I highly expect the Texas offense to go no-huddle early in this game in a solid effort to wear down an already fatigued defensive unit. Last, Texas may be 20-3 on the season, but have played far more difficult opponents as a body, then the Sooners. This too should be a dividend for the Long Horns in the Cotton Bowl Saturday. Take Texas. |
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10-10-14 | Fresno State v. UNLV +10 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
15* graded play on UNLV as they take on Fresno State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that UNLV will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. FSU sits atop the MW West Division with a 2-0 record, while UNLV has gone winless at 0-2 and is in the basement of the same Division. However, this is a game that I strongly believe UNLV will matchup well against and be able to compete fiercely for the full game. Putting a 2* extra play using the money line is an excellent wager. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 71-37 ATS for 66% winners since 1992. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UNLV) that are off 2 or more consecutive 'unders' and with a poor first half defense allowing 16 or more points per game. UNLV QB Blake Decker will be playing tonight and is now listed as 'probable' in the NCAA injury report. With him under center, I have no doubt the Rebels will score at least 28 points and the SIM confirms this expectation. In past games over the last three season, UNLV is a solid 8-2 ATS for 80% winners. Further, the Rebels are a stout 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. Take UNLV. 5* graded parlay on New Mexico and the 'over' in Mountain West showdown between New Mexico State and San Diego State set to start at 9:30 PM ET.  I also like making 10* plays each on NMST and the 'OVER' as a replacement for the parlay. I fully expect NMST to win this game and are currently installed as 4 point home dogs. This opens up another wagering consideration to p;lay NMST and the 'over' each for an 8* play and then add a 5* play using NMST on the Money Line and the 'over' as a parlay. The same system outlined in the UNLV play support the play on NMST in this matchup too. Remember, that systems, trends, and game situations serve only to reinforce the graded play from the SIM. In this case it is simply coincidence that the same system applies to both of these graded SIM plays. |
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10-09-14 | Indianapolis Colts -2.5 v. Houston Texans | Top | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Colts as they take on the Houston Texans in a significant showdown of AFC South Rivals.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Colts will win this game by five or more points. SIM shows projections calling for the Colts defense to contain the Texans offense to between 5.0 and 5.5 yards per play and 300 to 350 total offensive yards. In past games, the Colts are a near-perfect 8-1 ATS when they have allowed 300 to 350 offensive yards in games played over the past three seasons; 7-1 ATS when they have allowed 5.0 to 5.5 yards per play in games played over the past three seasons. Colts will be without two starting guards along the OL and this certainly will force them to use a second TE to double team Watt on the perimeter. He has been relentless and is playing a higher level then even the great Reggie White once did for the Eagles. However, Luck has been exhibiting a near-perfect pocket passer clinic so far this season. He is getting the ball out quickly and will use a three step drop tonight more often than in previous games.  Simply stated, the Colts have far too many weapons on offense for Watt and his teammates to contain. Further, Colts love the Thursday Night lights posting a 9-1 ATS mark. Take Indianapolis. |
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10-09-14 | BYU +3 v. Central Florida | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
10* graded play on the BYU Cougars as they take to the road to play UCF set to start at 7:30 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that BYU will win this game. BYU lost Hill to leg fracture in their upset loss at Utah State last week. Christian Stewart was thrown suddenly into the mix and played well for his first-ever FBS play. he had several WR open on vertical routes and simply over threw them. There are numerous reasons for not connecting on those passes and nerves arguably the top one. I strongly believe that BYU will just plug and play with Stewart under center. He does not have as much of a duel threat as Hill brought to the game, but does have the skill set to successfully move the ball against the UCF defensive unit. BYU has been a very resilient team as evident by their 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) mark after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses in games played over the last three seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 75-76 mark for 50% winners, BUT has made a whopping 75 units/unit wagered averaging a +200 DOG wager. Play on a road team using the money line (BYU) after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season. Take BYU. |
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10-06-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Washington Redskins +7.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they host the Seattle Seahawks in NFC action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. I also like making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-16 ATS mark for 73% winners since 2003. Play on underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) that is an excellent passing team averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt and after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in three straight games. This system has gone a near-perfect 11-1 ATS mark over the past three seasons. This is certainly a contrarian type of play with the Seahawks comig off the BYE and the Redskins reeling from a comprehensive and embarrassing defeat to the Division rival Giants. Yet, that is exactly why this play makes sense to me. I am more focused on the personnel the Redskins do have and that I fully expect them to bounce back strong tonight. I am not concerned about Cousins and how the Redskins offense will perform tonight, but rather the MAJOR advantage that the Washington defense, especially the D-line has in this matchup. In his final two seasons with the Dallas Cowboys, Jason Hatcher recorded 16 sacks and 93 total pressures, making him one of the most disruptive interior pass rushers in the league. He hasn’t missed a step since arriving in Washington, with a +9.8 pass rush grade, second among 3-4 defensive ends, four sacks, 13 total pressures and a 10.8 Pass Rushing Productivity score. Hatcher takes on an offensive  line featuring three players with negative pass blocking grades; J.R. Sweezy (-1.9), Max Unger (-1.3) and Justin Britt (-1.1) and he will present a constant threat for the entire game. Further, Ryan Kerrigan ranks second-best among linebackers with more than 50 run snaps played and has recorded five sacks, three QB hits, and 21 total QB pressures. Take Washington. |
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10-05-14 | St Louis Rams +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 28-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
25* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC Conference action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Rams will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Given this favorable upset projection, I will make this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-12 ATS mark for 75% winners since 1983.  Play against favorites (PHILADELPHIA) in a game involving two poor rushing teams with both out rushed by opponents by 40+ YPG and after being out rushed by 100 or more yards last game. Here is a second system that has gone 37-24 using the money line and has made 28 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play against home teams using the money line (PHILADELPHIA) after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. Philadelphia is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games facing solid passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last three seasons. Rams offensive line is quite good and vastly better than the Rams offensive unit stats would otherwise suggest. RT Barksdale is among the league best in run blocking and each player along the OL has achieved a positive run blocking grade for the season. The Eagles have a young and aggressive DL, but will need to bring a safety into the box to help stop and contain the run. The Rams HC Fisher named third string QB Austin Davis the starter for the remainder of the season. He ranks first in the NFL with a 72.3% completion percentage and has shown great awareness and accuracy in play action pass plays. Eagles defense has been largely inconsistent and I strongly believe the Rams offensive will be quite successful running and passing the football. The Eagles OL is in a state of flux, but do have RT Johnson returning after serving his four-week suspension for violating the league substance abuse policy. Yet, the OL needs reps to be cohesive and to consistently open up running lanes for their frustrated All-Pro RB McCoy. Foles has struggled this season, but will have a better game this week than the disaster he had in San Francisco last week. Yet, the vast holes on both the offensive and defensive units will give the Rams an d excellent shot at bringing their record to 2-2 for the season. Take the Rams. |
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10-04-14 | Nebraska +7 v. Michigan State | Top | 22-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Nebraska Cornhuskers as they take on the Michigan State Spartans in BIG Ten action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that Nebraska will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot a very impressive road victory moving their season record to a perfect 6-0. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-9 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2003. Play on road underdogs (NEBRASKA) outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season and after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game. 59% of these plays covered the spread by 7+ points and underscores my strong belief that MSU can win this game SU. Here is a second system playing against MSU and has gone 75-34 ATS for 69% winners since 2003. Play against home favorites (MICHIGAN ST) in a game involving two mistake-free teams averaging |
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10-04-14 | LSU v. Auburn -7.5 | Top | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
15* graded play on Auburn as they host the LSU Tigers in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game by 10 or more points. Â The Auburn ground attack is going to dominate and wear down the LSU defense. The SIM projects that Auburn will gain at least 300 rushing yards. In past games, LSU is an imperfect 0-1 ATS this season and 0-9 ATS. Further, LSU is 0-1 ATS this season, 0-3 ATS the past three seasons, and just 11-52 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points; 1-2 ATS the past three seasons and 3-16 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 450 to 500 offensive yards. Auburn is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season, 13-0 ATS the past three seasons, and 24-5 ATS since 1992 when they have rushed for 300 or more yards; 2-1 ATS this season, 15-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 89-34 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points. Last but not least, Malzahn is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when facing an excellent offensive teams averaging >=6.25 yards/play as the coach of Auburn. Â |
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10-04-14 | Kent State v. Northern Illinois -24 | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
15* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Kent State in MAC Conference action set to start at 5:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that NI will win this game by 27+ points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-10 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (N ILLINOIS) off a bye week. Of the total plays made, 56% of them covered the spread by 7+ points. The following game situations match the SIM projections for the composite stats for the game results. NI is a solid 2-0 ATS this season, 16-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 72-30 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points; 2-0 ATS this season, 11-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 31-14 ATS since 1992 when they have gained more than 500 offensive yards. Kent State is just 0-2 ATS this season, 3-8 ATS the past three seasons, and 18-49 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points; 0-2 ATS this season, 0-4 ATS the past three seasons, and 4-13 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 250 to 300 rushing yards. Take Northern Illinois. |
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10-04-14 | Kansas v. West Virginia -27 | Top | 14-33 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
15* graded play on West Virginia as they take on Kansas in BIG-12 conference action set to start at 4:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that WVU will win this game by 30+ points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-10 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (W VIRGINIA) off a bye week. The following game situations match the SIM projections for composite statistical results. Kansas is just 0-2 ATS this season, 3-12 ATS the past three seasons, and 31-102 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points; 0-1 ATS this season, 1-7 ATS the past three seasons, and 11-49 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 9.0 or more net passing yards per attempt; 0-1 ATS this season, 1-7 ATS the past three seasons, and 16-46 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 500+ offensive yards. I see very little chance, if any, that Kansas could contain West Virginia to less than 28 points and/or less than 500 offensive yards. Take the Mountaineers. |
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10-04-14 | Oklahoma v. TCU +4.5 | Top | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
15* graded play on TCU as they take on Oklahoma in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that TCU will lose this game by less than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game SU and upsetting the fourth ranked Sooners. Given this favorable upset projection, I will be making this a combination wager comprised of a 11* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 87-44 ATS mark for 67% winners since 2003. Play on any team (TCU) with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game and after 3 straight wins by 21 or more points. Here is a money line system that has gone 56-63 for just 47% winners, BUT has made a whopping 59 units/unit wagered averaging a +220 DOG play since 1992. Play on underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (TCU) in a game involving two good rushing teams; both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG and after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. Two very good defenses in this matchup with TCU ranking best in the nation in scoring defense. This will certainly be the most difficult test yet for TCU, but one I see ending very favorably for them. The speed and quickness, and discipline will be quite evident on the TCU defense. I also strongly believe that TCU will get QB pressure with just four pass rushers and this will allow the secondary to make plays and create turnovers. TCU is the play. |
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10-04-14 | Alabama v. Ole Miss +6 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
15* graded play on Mississippi as they host Alabama in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Mississippi will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot a big time win for the program. I like making this play a combination wager using an 11* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-11 ATS mark for 76% winners since 1992.  Play on a home team (OLE MISS) after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games. of the 46 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 27 of them or 59%, have covered the spread by 7 or more points. This certainly under scores the potential for the DOG to win the game. Further, this system has gone 9-1 ATS over the past three seasons. HC Freeze is Freeze is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in games played on turf as the coach of Mississippi. Special teams may be a big factor and give that edge to Mississippi. Neither team has strong reliable special teams, but 'Bama has been horrid for a long stretch of games. Take Mississippi. |
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10-04-14 | Florida +3 v. Tennessee | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
15* graded play on the Florida Gators as they take on the Tennessee Volunteers in SEC action set to start at Noon ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Florida will win this game. I like the idea of playing this DOG as a money line play only. If the line should inflate to +3, then a combination wager using an 11* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line would be very attractive. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 47-10 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play against any team (TENNESSEE) that is a poor rushing team gaining between 3 to 3.5 YPR and is now facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing between 3 to 3.5 YPR and in conference showdowns. 50% of the total plays made covered the spread by 7 or more points.  When fine tuning this system to be used on the money line and just to play against home teams, the results are an outstanding 22-4 for 85% winners averaging a +120 DOG play. Florida is coming off the BYE week while Tennessee is gone through two very tough games losing at Oklahoma and losing at Georgia 35-32 last week. Very difficult to continue putting extreme effort into three straight games against elite SEC competition. Take the Gators. |
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10-03-14 | Louisville v. Syracuse +1.5 | Top | 28-6 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 28 m | Show |
15* graded play on Syracuse as they take on Louisville in CFB action set to start Friday, October 3, at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Syracuse will win the game. Given this favorable projection, i will be playing this as a combination wager comprised of a 18* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-7 ATS mark for a remarkable 82% winners since 2003. Play against any team (LOUISVILLE) with an incredible defense allowing 4.2 or less yards/play and  after allowing 150 or less total yards in their previous game. 50% of the total plays made covered the spread by 7 or more points and further under scores my strong belief that Syracuse can win this game. Further, Louisville is just  2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after out gaining previous opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Orange are a solid money making 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better since 1992. Syracuse lost to Notre Dame 31-15 with the Irish finding away to overcome 5 turnovers. They did very well against the Syracuse secondary, especially in play action. However, Louisville is nowhere close to having a similar offensive scheme and will struggle in the passing game against Syracuse. The SIM projects that Syracuse will score between 22 and 28 points and in past games are just 1-5 ATS when scoring within this range over the past three seasons. Take Syracuse. 10* graded play on the SMU Mustangs as they take on the East Carolina Pirates in CFB action set to start at 12:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that SMU will lose this game by fewer than 40 points. There is absolutely no reason for ECU to have any reason to run the score up. SIM shows that ECU may not even exceed the 40 point total. There are strong reasons to believe that once ECU gets this to a three score game, they will play the second and third units for the duration. This serves two purposes to give the bench players some game time and valuable experience and also to keep the starters well rested and free from injury. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-12 ATS mark for 75% winners since 2003. Play on a road team (SMU) with a weak and struggling offense averaging 250 or less total yards/game and after gaining 275 or less total yards in two consecutive games. Take SMU. |
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10-02-14 | Arizona v. Oregon -23 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 7 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Oregon Ducks as they take on the Arizona Wild Cats in PAC-12 CFB action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oregon will win this game by 24+ points. Oregon is a stout  17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Arizona HC Rodriguez is a near-imperfect 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1992 and is an imperfect  0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=425 yards/game. Based on the SIM projections, Arizona must hold Oregon to less than 28 points to have a chance of just covering and I positively do not see that having even a remote chance of happening in this matchup. Arizona is just 3-13 ATS the past three seasons and 20-84 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points. They are also just 1-6 ATS the past three seasons and 7-22 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 200 to 250 rushing yards in a game.  Oregon is 4-0 ATS the past three seasons and 33-7 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 200 to 250 rushing yards. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-9 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OREGON) off a bye week. 57% of these plays covered the spread by 7+ points. Here is a second system that has gone 30-4 ATS for 88% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OREGON) with an elite offense averaging 6.4 or more yards/play and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. 60% of the plays made based on this system covered the spread by 7 or more points. Take Oregon. |
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10-02-14 | Minnesota Vikings +9 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
20* graded play on the Minnesota Vikings as they take on the Green Bay Packers in NFC action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the the Vikings will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. Green Bay is off a very impressive win at Chicago and now play a Vikings squad that I believe matchup very well against the Packers. The apasckers are led by Jordy Nelson and Randal Cobb, who are at the top of the league or near the top in many statistical categories and metrics. However, the Vikings secondary has played well in pass coverage thus far this year, and even more so considering they have already faced Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, and Drew Brees. In the first four games this year, Brady has been the only quarterback to notch an overall positive grade. Safety Harrison Smith leads the team in coverage with a +6.1 grade, and an overall grade of +9.1, which ranks him as the top safety in the league. When quarterbacks throw into Smith coverage their NFL QB Rating is a 53.8. Further, Xavier Jones was matched agaist Atlanta's Julio Jones and held him to just two receptions on four targets for 27 yards. This performance was Rhodes' best of his career. Josh Robinson ranks as the 4th best corner in the NFL based on our metrics and has allowed just three yards after the catch on 6 total receptions. Teddy Bridgewater is listed as questionable, but from all media sources, it appears very likely he will start. The following game situations match the SIM projections. Vikings are a solid 12-4 ATS over the past three seasons when they gain 6 or more total yards per play; 7-1 ATS when they gain 7.0 to 7.5 yards per play; 13-3 ATS when they have rushed for 125 or more yards over the past three seasons; 6-1 ATS when they have rushed for 150 to 175 rushing yards. Packers are just 3-9 ATS over the past three seasons when they have allowed 150+ rushing yards; 2-5 ATS when they have allowed 6.0 to 6.5 yards per play over the last three seasons. Take Minnesota. |
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09-29-14 | New England Patriots -3.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 14-41 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Kansas City Chiefs in MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. Â I also like the 'under' for a 10* play and then play a 5* parlay with the Patriots and the 'under'. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-3 mark for 89.3% winners using the money line since 2008. Play on favorites using the money line (NEW ENGLAND) that is a mistake-free team committing |
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09-28-14 | New Orleans Saints -3 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the New Orleans Saints in NFC action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game. Given the favorable projection I will be making this a combination wager with a 20* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 59-8 mark for 88% winners and has made 40 units/unit wagered since 2003. Play against road teams using the money line (NEW ORLEANS) after 1 or more consecutive wins and is a team winning 25% to 40% of their games and now playing a team with a winning record. This system is a perfect 10-0 over the past three seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections. Saints are a money burning 2-8 against the money line (-9.8 Units) in road games when they gain 300 or more net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; Â 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons. Saints have two excellent pass rushers from the edge in Galette and Jordan. Â However, Dallas has Tyron Smith is an elite left tackle with a sixth-placed Pass Block Efficiency of 97.4 while Doug Free seems to have regressed after a solid 2013 by posting a PBE of 93.8 that has him ranked 54th out of 63. It will be critical to the Cowboys chances that Free hold up his end of the bargain, even if it requires some chip blocks from running backs and tight ends. Further, DeMarco Murray leads the NFL with 75 rushing attempts and 388 rushing yards. DE Crawford is off to a fast start as well ranking second best in pass rushing efficiency and DT Melton has been elite at minimum generating 7 pressures on 63 pass attempts. Take Dallas |
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09-28-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. San Francisco 49ers -4 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. Eagles OL has had numerous injuries and now have at least one first time starter in today's lineup. The 49ers defense will be a unit that will make things far more difficult for the Eagles high paced offense to get started and find that scoring flow this afternoon. The Eagles defense has been very suspect on the corners and up the gut. The 49ers have excellent WR that can spread the field and make the middle of the field even more suspect with the power running Frank Gore and easy to execute passes to the TE ( presuming Davis doesn't start). The simulator shows a high probability that SF will win this game by at least 7 points. 49ers HC Harbaugh is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when facing awful passing defenses allowing 260 or more passing yards/game as the coach of SF. The following game situations match the SIM projections. Eagles are just 2-7 ATS when allowing 125 to 150 rushing yards over the past three seasons; 2-8 ATS when allowing 22 to 28 points over the past three seasons; 49ers are 7-0 ATS when scoring 22 to 28 points over the past three seasons; 6-0 ATS when they gain 3.5 to 4.0 yards-per-rush over the past three seasons; 11-2 ATS when the 49er offense gains 350 to 400 total yards. Kaepernick is a solid 13-3 ATS in lined games between 3 and 6 points. Take the 49ers. |
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09-28-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Tampa Bay Bucs as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bucs will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a solid shot an upset win. Given this favorable projection, I will be playing this 25* Titan as a combination wager consisting of an 18* play using the line and a 7* play using the inflated money line. The inflated part of the line comes from the horrid performance put forth by the Bucs in their last game losing 56-14 to Atlanta. I don't believe that the Bucs are a disorganized team with a coaching staff that is not respected by the players. I do believe they will be focused to put forth a great effort today. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-4 ATS mark for 86% winners since 2003. Play on any team (TAMPA BAY) that is a struggling offensive team scoring between 14-18 PPG and is now facing a struggling defensive team allowing between 23-27 PPG and after a loss by 21 or more points. Here is a second system that has gone 30-9 ATS for 77% winners since 2008. Play on road underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) off 1 or more straight 'overs' and is a struggling offensive team scoring 17 or less points/game. Steeler HC is a weak Tomlin is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) after a win by 14 or more points as the coach of Pittsburgh;  5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) facing weak teams outscored by 6+ points per game on the season.  The Steelers lost three defensive starters and I do strongly believe that QB Glennon will be very effective running the offense. The now not retired Harrison will b ein th elineup at outside LB.McGown is lost for the season with a torn thumb ligament. Further, Rothlisberger is one of the toughest QB to play, but is also nursing a nagging series of injuries and listed as probable. The Steelers run a high number of varied screen plays and I believe this does play into the strengths of the Bucs defensive unit. The Steelers use a power run game, but here again, I expect the Bucs to stop it. Lavonte David has recorded 16 defensive stops on the season, which is twice as many as anyone else for the Buccaneers. Verner has four stops in run defense for a Run Stop Percentage of 4.9, which is good fourth-best. He also has four stops in pass coverage and has not missed a tackle in the passing game. Just two examples of the quality of this defensive unit that went absent 10 days ago against Atlanta. Take the Bucs. |
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09-27-14 | Notre Dame v. Syracuse +9.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
10* graded play on Syracuse as they host Notre Dame set to start at 8:00 PM ET at the Metlife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. The simulator shows a high probability that Syracuse will lose this game by fewer than 8 points. I like making this a combination wager using an 8* play on the line and a 2* play using the money line. Syracuse is a solid  11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after out gaining opponents by 175 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. This is a game that the Irish could easily take for granted and have more focus on the huge showdown next week hosting Stanford. In fact, the look ahead factor includes Stanford, then UNC, and then at Florida State. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-13 record for 66% winners using the Money Line and has made 35 units/unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged an impressive 191 DOG play. Play on underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (SYRACUSE) that has an excellent rushing defense allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards-per-carry and after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game. Further, this system has not had a losing record in any year over the past 20 seasons. Take Syracuse. |
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09-27-14 | Missouri +5 v. South Carolina | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Missouri as they take on South Carolina in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Missouri will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at upsetting the 13th ranked Gamecocks. YOu may remember my 25* graded winner on the Indiana, who upended Missouri last week as 14 1/2 point dogs. That is the type of home loss that can refocus a team and have them fully prepared for a 'redemption' type of game. In hindsight, I also believe Missouri was looking ahead to this showdown and mistakenly presumed the Hoosier game was a win before it even started. I did look at the MASH unit now forming on the Tigers roster. McNulty is listed atop the depth chart at left guard after fifth-year senior Anthony Gatti tore his right ACL last weekend. Connor McGovern will move back to right guard after starting at the position in all 14 games last season. Taylor Chappell is expected to earn his first career start at right tackle in place of McGovern. Although, OL need playing experience and chemistry to perform well, this style of quick paced offense can offset the uncertainty along the OL. These players were all elite players in high school and can plug-and-play in these situations. The majority of Missouri pass plays involve very simple fundamental pass blocking and South Carolina does not present an intimidating defensive scheme that will cause this new modified OL unit any difficulty in pass protection. Recently, the Tigers have prepared for strong passing attacks and are riding a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when facing good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons. I also believe that there is a near zero chance that SC can contain Missouri to less than 28 points. In past games, Missouri is a solid 15-4 ATS over the past three seasons when scoring 28 points over the past three seasons. Take the Tigers. Â |
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09-27-14 | Florida State -17.5 v. NC State | Top | 56-41 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 0 m | Show |
25* graded play on Florida State as they take on North Carolina State in ACC Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 21 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-6 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2008.  Play against home underdogs (NC STATE) with a good offense averaging 400 or more total yards/game and after out gaining opponent by 225 or more total yards in their previous game. This system has gone 19-3 ATS over the past three seasons for 86.4% winners. The Wolfpack (4-0) are looking for their best start since Philip Rivers was under center. They haven't been 5-0 since opening 9-0 in 2002 en route to finishing 11-3. N.C. State's 502.0 yards of offense per game top the conference, led by Jacoby Brissett's ACC-leading 166.7 passer rating. The Florida transfer has 10 TD passes with one interception and was 14 of 21 for 195 yards and three scores in last Saturday's 42-0 win over Presbyterian - the Wolfpack's first shutout since 2011. Brissett also found the end zone on one of his five carries. HOWEVER, all of these great stats were achieved against one of the weakest schedules in the conference. FSU's opponents have produced nearly three times the strength to that which NC State has faced. Making matters worse is last week's opponent was a 'scrimmage' against Presbyterian. Having yo now step up to face an undefeated reigning National Champion is a nearly impossible task. Granted FSU did play the Citadel, but have faced a very good Oklahoma State and Clemson squad. By comparison, NC State has gone 4-0 against Georgia Southern, ODU, South Florida, Presbyterian. Simply, no program can ever simulate the speed of a top-ranked team like FSU and that will show on both sides of the ball. The following game situations match the SIM projections. FSU is 7-0 ATS the past three seasons when they have allowed 3.0 to 3.5 rushing yards per carry; 13-3 ATS over the past three seasons when they have gained 500+ offensive yards; 15-4 ATS over the past three seasons when they have out gained their opponent by 200+ offensive yards. I believe we will see the complete and best version of the FSU team this afternoon. |
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09-27-14 | Maryland v. Indiana -4 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
10* graded play on Indiana as they take on Maryland in Big Ten action set to start at 1:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Indiana will win this game by 6+ points. As mentioned Indiana was another 25* Titan that was a double digit dog that won outright. There will be absolutely no letdown following that huge win in Missouri last week with confidence so high right now. This is the conference opener for both teams and both are in the Big Ten East Division, which features no. 9 ranked Michigan State and No. 22 Ohio State. Indiana could very well be the dark horse in the East to make a run at MSU, who they play October 18 at home. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-7 ATS mark for 80% winners since 1992.  Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANA) off an upset win as an underdog against an opponent off a road win. 67% of these plays covered the spread by 7+ points. Further, Head Coach Edsall is a horrid 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of Maryland. For those, who like making money line plays this system will support your play. It has produced a 28-5 mark for 85% winners since 2003. Play on a home team using the money line (INDIANA) after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game. Take Indiana. |
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09-26-14 | Fresno State v. New Mexico +5 | Top | 35-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
25* graded play on New Mexico as they take on Fresno State in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that New Mexico will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great opportunity at winning this game SU. Given this favorable projection consider making this a combination wager consisting of a 20* play with the points and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-7 ATS mark for 81.1% winners since 2008. This system is 20-3 ATS over the past three seasons and 57% of the plays made have covered the spread by 7+ points. Play against any team (FRESNO ST) that is a struggling team being outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game and after 2 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored. Fine tuning this to include playing against road teams has produced a 16-1 ATS mark for 94% winners over the past three seasons. New Mexico head coach Davie is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992. New Mexico runs the ball and then they run it more ranking third in the nation at 350 yards-per-game. The Lobos run the pistol and the option offensive scheme that is going to present some massive challenges for a Fresno State defensive unit that has been ripped apart in each game this season. Last year FSU was a 34 1/2 point favorite and defeated New Mexico 69-28 in what was a humiliating loss. Fans at that game made it a point to humiliate the entire New Mexico team as they walked together to the visitor's locker room outside of the stadium complex.  So, there is a 'pride' factor involved in this game and it is home coming too where 22K fans are expected to be in attendance. Gone from the Fresno State roster are quarterback Derek Carr and wide receiver Davante Adams, the two players who did the most damage in last year’s rout. The 2014 Bulldogs have gotten extremely inconsistent play at quarterback from junior Brian Burrell and Duke transfer Brandon Connette amd I strongly believe they will struggle against the Lobos defensive scheme tonight. Take New Mexico. |
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09-25-14 | NY Giants v. Washington Redskins UNDER 46 | Top | 45-14 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
20* graded play 'UNDER' Washington-Giants in NFC East action set to start Thursday at 8:25 PM ET. Although just week 4, this is a monumental game for both teams. Going 1-3 through 4 weeks presents a very difficult mountain to climb just to get back into playoff contention.  The Redskins managed to gain 507 offensive yards in Kirk Cousins start and he was very good across the board. However, the Eagles defense is one of the weakest in the league, especially in the middle of the scheme. After starting out 0-2 the Giants got things right and won versus Houston. So, this storied rivalry will take on a very intense look given the ramifications of the outcome and being on national TV. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 45 points will be scored in this game. The Redskins offensive line has done a great job and all of them have had positive gradings. LT Trent Williams grades the highest, but as a unit they are working very well together. This brings to light the fact that the Redskins will look to run the ball behind this line with Alfred Morris, who has not had a positive grading overall. This apparent negative rating by Morris is a result of the arial passing attack that the Redskins had against the Eagles. However, the matchup favors the Redskins looking to establish the run and will direct majority of these plays toward Kiwanuka, who has had three negative grades. The Giants secondary has played well based on the gradings led by Rodgers-Cromartie and Antrel Rolle. Obviously, the Redskins will not be looking for WR Garcon to match his offensive output from last week's huge game. The Giants are essentially int he same boat, although for different reasons. Their WR corp of Cruz, Randle, and Jernigan have underperformed with negative grades through three games. Their best position player has been the emergence of TE Donnell, who has graded very well in pass blocking and especially in run plays. This lends itself to the Giants looking to establish the run as well and design plays behind Beatty, who has one of the best grades so far in the NFC. In addition, Donnell will be very effective releasing from the LOS in short duration play action pass plays. This takes pressure off the Redskins blitz and allows Manning to execute high percentage pass plays and keep the chains moving. Giants are a solid  25-11 UNDER (+12.9 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992; 30-14 UNDER (+14.6 Units) facing good defensive teams allowing |
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09-22-14 | Chicago Bears +2.5 v. NY Jets | Top | 27-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Chicago Bears as they take on the NY Jets in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:35 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Bears will win the game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-3 ATS for 89% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites (NY JETS) that is a team with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points/game and after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. 42% of these games covered the spread by seven or more points. Jets are just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) off 1 or more straight 'over' results spanning games played over the last 3 seasons. The Bears have a tremendous matchup advantage in the passing game attacking the suspect Jets secondary. Of note, Ryan's secondary needs to show improvement after Aaron Rodgers passed for 346 yards and three touchdowns if they are going to be able to stop Cutler. The Jets were hoping the return of top cornerback Dee Milliner from a high ankle sprain would tighten things up, but he struggled against the Packers and sat out Wednesday's practice, leaving him questionable for Monday. Cutler, who has a 61.6 completion percentage, 14 touchdowns and three interceptions in leading the Bears to a 6-1 record on Mondays. He is off to a great start and perhaps the best of his career completing 69% of his passes with 6 TD and 2 INT for a 100 passer rating through two games. Further, the team leader in receptions, Eric Decker, is still questionable for tonight's contest. he left with a hamstring injury in the fourth quarter of the last game. Hamstrings are the most sensitive of physical ailments any athlete in any sport can suffer and many times, they take a long time to completely heal. Playing week to week with these strains is difficult at best and one stride can highly aggravate the injury and force a player out of action. The jest will be focusing on attacking the Bears run defense that has been gashed in the first two games. However, the Jets are not a big threat through the air and the Bears can safely place an extra safety in the box and show many different looks pre snap. Jets rank 30th in the league averaging just 178 passing yards per game. This also reflects their inability to exploit defenses off of play action. Bears is the play. |
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09-21-14 | Washington Redskins +6 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFL East action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will win this game. Given this favorable projection I will be making this a combination wager comprised of a 19* play using the line and a 8* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-3 ATS mark for 89% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) and is a team with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points/game and after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. 42% of these games covered the spread by 7 or more points and under scores my strong belief that Washington wins this game. Here is a money line system that has posted an impressive 51-27 mark for 65% winners and has made 29 units/unit wagered averaging a +122 Dog line since 1983. Play against any team using the money line (WASHINGTON) after a win by 21 or more points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games. SIM projects that Washington will gain between 125 and 150 rushing yards. Philadelphia is just 1-8 against the money line (-9.4 Units) when they allow 125 to 150 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles will struggle to run the ball. Washington's defensive linemen Jarvis Jenkins, Chris Baker, and Jason Hatcher are especially tough against the run. Linebacker Keenan Robinson is their top tackler and makes great pursuit angles and is never out of position. Washington has not allowed a run of longer than 12 yards. The Eagles are expected to keep Dennis Kelly at left guard and Andrew Gardner at right tackle. Kelly will be completely dominated with Hatcher throughout this game and the Eagles cannot use double teams against Hatcher either. I like Washington in this matchup. Take the Redskins. |
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09-20-14 | Miami (Fla) +8 v. Nebraska | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Briefly, I have changed the balancing of the gradings in order to maximize profits over the entire season. With that said, the 10* plays are now 15* plays and 25* plays remain the same. The key to my 21 years of success has been to be highly disciplined wagering the same amount per * unit play on every graded play.  15* graded play on the Miami Hurricanes as they take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers in CFB action set to start at  The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by fewer than 8 points and has a great opportunity earn an excellent and very meaningful road win. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 42-38 mark for 53% winners using the Money Line, BUT has made a whopping 50 units/unit wagered averaging a +205 DOG play.  Play on underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (MIAMI) with a good rushing defense allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. Here is a second system that has gone 31-18 for 69% winners and has made 38 units/unit wagered averaging a huge +177 DOG play since 2008.  Play on a road team using the money line (MIAMI)  and has been a turnover prone team (2.5+ TO/game) and now facing a mistake-free team ( |
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09-20-14 | Indiana +13.5 v. Missouri | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
15* graded play on the Indiana Hoosiers as they take on the Missouri Tigers in CFB action set to start at 4:00 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that Indiana will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a shot at earning a big time upset win. Given this favorable projection, I will encourage you to play this as a combination wager consisting of a 11* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. I see this as a possible letdown situation for the Tigers. History shows that HC Pinkel is just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games as the coach of the Tigers. Key factor is that Hoosiers returns 8 starters including the QB on offense. Further, they return, 9 on defense. Overall , this type of experience and chemistry,especially along the OL, is a major advantage for any DOG looking to earn the upset win. Adding to this advantage is the fact that Missouri returns just 4 starters each on offense and defense. Take Indiana. |
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09-20-14 | Texas A&M v. SMU +35 | Top | 58-6 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
15* graded play on the SMU Mustangs as they take on the Texas A&M Aggies in CFB action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that SMU will lose this game by fewer than 34 points. This is simply too many points and my complete body of research shows to be more of a 24 points type game. Note that A&M is  0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games after gaining 450 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games since 1992. In this matchup, that they undoubtedly believe is won before it is even played, their is a high likelihood that focus will not be at it's best. SMU is on a nice perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. SMU has played far tougher opponents at Baylor and North Texas, then the resume that A&M played that only includes South Carolina (a JRS Upset Titan alert winner) as a viable opponent. The other two were Rice and Lamar. So, I do believe that SMU can compete well and keep this game to a 3 TD margin. Take the points. |
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09-20-14 | Florida +14.5 v. Alabama | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Florida Gators as they take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM EWT. Â The simulator shows a high probability that Florida will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. I also like adding a 2* play using the money line as I do believe that if Florida executes near perfection, they can win this game. Yet, don't think they need perfection to cover this generous spread. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 70-23 ATS mark for 75% winners since 2002. Play against home favorites (ALABAMA) in a game involving two mistake-free teams posting a |
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09-18-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
20* graded play on the Tampa Bay Bucs as they take on the Atlanta Falcons in NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that TB will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at the upset win. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 20* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-8 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2008. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TAMPA BAY) that was a struggling team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games. 40% of these DOG plays covered the spread by 7 or more points and serves to reinforce my strong belief that upset is in the cards. The ground attack will be a dominant reason why the upset occurs. The SIM projects that TB will gain between 125 and 150 rushing yards with or without Martin in the lineup. TB is a solid 4-1 ATS over the past three seasons and 38-14 ATS since 1992 when gaining between 125 and 150 rushing yards in a game. Martin is upgraded to probable and will play. Obviously, the greater the amount of rushing yards that exceeds the 150 hurdle, the greater the probability that TB will win the game SU. Falcons Jones and White are listed as probable, but have injuries (hamstrong and ankle) that can be worsened on one play. So, for the reason that both WR are playing hurt and are not at their elite levels of performance allows the Bucs defense to play more man coverage and to disguise corner blitz schemes far more effectively. Take the Bucs |
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09-15-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 55 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
10* graded play 'UNDER' the posted total in the MNF matchup when Philadelphia visits Indianapolis starting at 8:30 PM Et.  The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 51 point will be scored in this contest. As you can see the parlay will be on Philadelphia and the 'under'. I suggest no more than additional 5* amount for the parlay and would split that amount to include a 2.5* amounts using the line and money line on the Philadelphia side of the ledger. It is only Week2 and there are already a ton of major injuries to numerous teams in the NFL. Mathis is gone for the Colts and his replacement last week, 2013 first round draft pick Werner, had ZERO QB pressures and only 3 tackles in the loss at Denver. The Eagles are banged on the OL, but have solid replacements to fill in. They are certainly not all-pro caliber subs, but the Eagles offensive scheme does not mandate elite skills from it's OL. In fact, the high pace of the Eagles offense mandates that the OL only hold blocks for a matter of 2 to 3 seconds and this makes it far easier for these subs to do what is required in executing any of the plays on the Kelly arsenal. I also strongly believe the Eagles will look to run at Werner sides of the LOS and also run the ball a higher number of times than their average over the past 2 seasons. This will then set up play action for Foles where he has been excellent - as is the majority of NFL quarterbacks. Given the expectations of the high-powered Eagles offense, there is no doubt in my mind the Colts will look to play a far more conservative offensive scheme for the first half. The goal will be to shorten the game and keep the Eagles offense off the field. I love the 'under' because both teams will be looking for an edge in TOP, which is rare for Kelly, but very appropriate for this matchup. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 93-51 ATS for 65% winners since 1983. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANAPOLIS) off a road loss, in September games. Now, if the line should shift to 3 1/2 it does not disqualify this graded play in the least. The systems, game situations, and matchups serve to reinforce and further explain the reasoning for the release(s). SIM projects that Philadelphia will gain 8.0 or more net passing yards and the Colts are a money burning 1-5 ATS over the past three seasons and a horrid 13-49 ATS since 1992 in that role. Take Philadelphia and the 'UNDER' each for a 10* play and a 2.5* parlay using the line and 'under' and a 2.5* amount using the money line and 'under'. |
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09-15-14 | Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Philadelphia Eagles as they take on Indy in MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that Philadelphia will win this game. This is a repeat of the above information. It is only Week2 and there are already a ton of major injuries to numerous teams in the NFL. Mathis is gone for the Colts and his replacement last week, 2013 first round draft pick Werner, had ZERO QB pressures and only 3 tackles in the loss at Denver. The Eagles are banged on the OL, but have solid replacements to fill in. They are certainly not all-pro caliber subs, but the Eagles offensive scheme does not mandate elite skills from it's OL. In fact, the high pace of the Eagles offense mandates that the OL only hold blocks for a matter of 2 to 3 seconds and this makes it far easier for these subs to do what is required in executing any of the plays on the Kelly arsenal. I also strongly believe the Eagles will look to run at Werner sides of the LOS and also run the ball a higher number of times than their average over the past 2 seasons. This will then set up play action for Foles where he has been excellent - as is the majority of NFL quarterbacks. |
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09-14-14 | St. Louis Rams +6 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
25* graded play on the St. Louis Rams as they take on the Tampa Bay Bucs in NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that STL will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and have a great shot at getting an upset road win. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination play just as we did in Saturday's Huge 25* Titan play using ECU. Play a combination wager using an 18* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 3-13 mark using the money line and has made 23 units/unit wagered since 1983. Play against any team using the money line (TAMPA BAY) that is off an upset loss as a favorite and in the first month of the season and after closing out last season with three or more straight losses. SIM shows that Rams will contain the Bucs to 21 or fewer points. Over the past three seasons, the Rams are a perfect 6-0 ATS when allowing 15 to 21 points in a game. Given the QB situation, the Rams will focus more on the ground attack and will be quite successful in that effort. The Rams are a nice 4-0 ATS over the past three seasons and 26-13 ATS since 1992 when gaining between 125 and 150 rushing yards. Rams were the only team not to score a TD in Week 1, but I believe the matchups favor a solid offensive day for the Rams. The public jumped ship very quickly on the Rams and have bet nearly 70% of their wagers on the Bucs and have completely ignored the Rams. Despite the absence of DE Long, the Rams still have a solid front seven that features All-Pro Robert Quinn. Containing that imposing defensive line may be even more difficult for Tampa Bay given that Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins isn't even close to 100 percent healthy. Mankins, acquired from New England on Aug. 26, left in the second quarter of last Sunday's 20-14 loss to Carolina with a knee injury and did not return. Coach Lovie Smith isn't sure if Mankins will be able to start, but he said the injury wasn't too serious and the team won't seek out another lineman. So, with a strong ground attack, the Rams can then use Hill in easy to read play action passes and maximize yards after the catch. Now, you can see the matchups that make me a strong believer the Rams will cover this number and may even win the game. Take the Rams. |
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09-13-14 | Arizona State v. Colorado +16 | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
10* graded play on Colorado as they host Arizona State in CFB action set to start at 10:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Colorado will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. ASU is coming off a big win, at least on the scoreboard, to New Mexico. They are 2-0 on the season, but have yet to play any formidable opponent. Based on my opponent PR ratings, ASU has one of the weakest first two games in the nation. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 146-71 ATS mark for 67.2% winners since 1992. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (COLORADO) in conference games and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. Here is one of the best CFB systems I have in the database and has gone 24-10 for 71% winners making 38 units/unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a +200 DOG line and is truly what makes this system one that you can tack on your own to make even more money for seasons to come. Play against a road team using the money line (ARIZONA ST) that is a good team from last season (60% to 80% in percentage) playing a team who had a losing record last year and with 4 or fewer defensive starters returning and with the current game taking place in the first month of the season. I suggest playing this 10* Titan in the same combination as outlined for the UTSA game above. Take the Colorado Buffalos. |
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09-13-14 | Texas-San Antonio +13.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 13-43 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
10* graded play on Texas - San Antonio as they take on Oklahoma State in CFB action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UTSA will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. I have played UTSA in their previous 2 games with great success as they upset Houston 27-7 as an 8 point dog and then easily covered in Week2 against Arizona as a 7 1/2 point dog. This will certainly be their stiffest test, but they have played against solid opponents in the first two weeks. They are a very good and vastly under rated team with excellent coaching. I am most impressed with the balanced offensive attack and I fully expect that unit to do very well tonight. The SIm confirms this belief showing that UTSA will gain between 150 to 200 rushing yards and between 350 and 400 total yards. In these situations, they have posted a perfect 6-0 ATS mark. I also like making this a combination wager using an 8* amount on the line and a 2.5* amount using the money line for a total risk of 10.5* units. Take Texas-San Antonio. |
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09-13-14 | Army +28 v. Stanford | Top | 0-35 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
10* graded play on Army as they take on Stanford in CFB action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that Army will lose this game by fewer than 25 points. Stanford is coming off a very disappointing loss to USC last week having blown 7 red zone scoring opportunities. I had USC as my PAC-12 Game of the Year and feel quite fortunate to come away with that victory. I fully expect the Cardinal to be completely flat against an inferior foe in Army. That type of loss last week is worse than one losing in OT and it sticks with a team for a long while. Army has the ground attack and offensive that can easily shorten this game and make it far more competitive then the 28 point line currently shown at majority of books. What I also like too is that Army returns 9 starters on offense including the QB and that experience will serve them very well in this matchup. Cardinal just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) off an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite since 1992; Â 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) off an upset loss as a favorite since 1992; 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after a playing a game where 29 total points or less were scored since 1992. Take Army. |
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09-13-14 | East Carolina +9.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 1 h 11 m | Show |
25* graded play on East Carolina as they take on V-Tech in CFB action set to start at Noon ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that East Carolina will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a solid shot at upsetting the Hokies. Given this favorable projection, I recommend making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. I do see this game as a letdown situation for the Hokies, who are coming off one of their best upset victories in years last week. ECU is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons;  7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons; 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games off a road loss since 1992. Supporting this Titan release is a system that has gone 50-17 for 75% winners and has made 46 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play on a  road team vs. the money line (E CAROLINA) that is an excellent offensive team (>=440 YPG) and now facing a good offensive team gaining between 390 to 440 YPG and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. The Pirates put forth a respectable effort in their 33-23 loss to South Carolina, as they had a 453-441 yardage edge. QB Shane Carden was 32-of-46 for 321 yards, but had a couple of costly interceptions. I see huge matchup advantages for Carden to exploit on the perimeter getting the ball out quickly with three step drops and with the receivers getting the ball in space to make plays. The dominant key to this game is that I fully expect ECU to have a massive yards after the catch advantage leading them to a chance to win in the fourth quarter. Take the Pirates. |
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09-12-14 | Baylor v. Buffalo +36 | Top | 63-21 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
10* graded play on Buffalo as they host Baylor in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by fewer than 32 points. This is simply just too many points and I live Buffalo to cover this generous number tonight. Baylor knows they are a much better team and can easily win this game. It is also a short week in preparation and the Bears are coming off two dominating performances in their new stadium outscoring their opponents a combined 115-6. However, the Bears have some significant injuries and 'aches' within their starting units. QB Petty has been upgraded to probable, but that certainly does not imply he will play all four quarters. Same can be said of WR Goodley nursing a leg injury. There are four WR and 1 backup RB that will not see action tonight. The last thing the 8th ranked team needs is to have more injuries in a game that can be won with their second units. That is what I fully expect tonight and the second and third units of Baylor will at least give Buffalo a chance to move the ball, score points, and be more competitive. Baylor WR KD Cannon will be playing and he is coming off the second best WR yardage total in school history and did not even play the second half. He scored three TD on 50, 81. and 42 yards in the first quarter. Given his elite speed, you can bet that Buffalo will bracket him in a base cover-2 preventing him from getting behind the safeties. This scheme at least contains quick scores for the most part. Again, he is a starter that has burst on the national stage at the age of just 18 years. So, with the strong belief that Baylor will rest many of their starters once a significant lead is attained gives Buffalo a solid shot at staying with the generous number. Take Buffalo. |
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09-11-14 | Houston +19 v. BYU | Top | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 34 h 5 m | Show |
10* graded play on Houston as they take on BYU in CFB action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that Houston will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. BYU is off to an impressive 2-0 start and have covered both contests very easily. Houston has gone 1-1, but failed to cover in either game. This is going to be a much better test for BYU than their previous two opponents. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-9 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2003. Play against home favorites (BYU) after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. 59% of these games covered the spread by 7+ points and this under scores by strong belief that this will be a single digit game. BYU has had two impressive road wins, BUT they are just 7-26 ATS (-21.6 Units) after a 2 game road trip since 1992 and 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) off 2 consecutive road wins since 1992. Houston was dominated by Texas - San Antonio in Week1 (a big win as a Top rated Titan release), but don't under estimate the fact they return 8 starters on offense and the quarterback and also return 9 defensive starters. No doubt BYU will look to run the ball and I expect 50 rushing attempts in this game. Houston will be prepared for this scheme and will be able to contain it. I like Houston being able to establish their ground game just enough so play action pass will be very effective. Take Houston. |
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09-08-14 | NY Giants v. Detroit Lions UNDER 47.5 | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
10* graded play 'UNDER' the posted total in the NY Giants-Detroit Lions NFC game set to start at 7:10 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 45 points will be scored in this game. The following game situations match the SIM projections for this game.  Giants are a solid 8-2 'under' the past three seasons and 60-32 'under' since 1992 when they gain between 150 and 200 net passing yards; 0-6 'under the last three seasons and 50-20 'under' since 1992 when gaining less than 250 net offensive yards. Detroit is 27-11 'under' since 1992 when allowing 250 or fewer offensive yards; 54-22 'under' since 1992 when allowing 15 to 21 points. New York (7-9) started last season with the lofty goal of becoming the first team to play in the Super Bowl in its own stadium, but that quickly became a punchline as the Giants stumbled to 0-6 on a wave of turnovers, mistakes and poor offensive play. New York's 294 points ranked 28th in the league and the club easily topped the NFL with 44 giveaways. The 7-3 recovery came too late as coach Tom Coughlin's team missed the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons. McAdoo's quick-release offense is a big departure from Gilbride's downfield-heavy passing scheme, and the results haven't been good so far. Eli Manning, who led the NFL last year with a career-high 27 interceptions, looked out of sync with top receivers Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle throughout the preseason as he struggled to adapt to the first change in offenses of his career. The Giants MUST and will run the ball between the tackles. Given the lack of any chemistry during the preseason, the ground game takes on monumental meaning and purpose. Detroit is a solid team with many offensive weapons, but here too, the Lions cannot afford to make mistakes early in this game. The Giants defensive front will present a problem for the Lions passing game, if they do not establish the run early. So, with teams looking to win the LOS, time will steadily roll off the clock. I absolutely LOVE this 'under' play. |
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09-07-14 | San Francisco 49ers -3.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Dallas Cowboys in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by 7 or more points. Briefly and perhaps bluntly, the 49ers are the better team on both sides of the ball and they certainly have better coaching. The Sim shows consistent and conclusive projections that the 49ers will dominate this game and the following game situations support those projections. SF is 11-1 ATS when they gain 350 to 400 total offensive yards over the last three seasons; 12-3 when they have gained 6.5 to 7.0 Yards-per-play; 8-2 ATS when they score 22 to 28 points; 11-3 when they have allowed 75 to 100 rushing yards 8-2 ATS when they have gained 200 to 250 net passing yards. Dallas is a money burning 2-6 ATS over the past three seasons and 10-46 ATS when they have allowed 150+ rushing yards. Further, 49ers are a near-perfect  9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Take the 49ers. |
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09-07-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars +10.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Jacksonville Jaguars as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a shot at pulling off what would be a most amazing upset win. If you can play the money line add only a maximum of 1.5* units on a money line lay on JAX (just in case). Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-12 mark for 77.4% winners since 2008. Play on underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) and was a struggling team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games. Simply, this system under scores the Not For Long 'logo' of the NFL. Each season there are 4 to 5 new playoff teams in the fold. I'm not saying that JAX will be a playoff team, but I do believe that they can be a second place team in the Divisional race. So, playing 'OVER' the wins total is an excellent wager as well. I suggest a 5* amount on that play. JAX is thin at wide receiver for this game. Shorts is out officially with a hamstring and then Blackmon is out indefinitely and Sanders out for the first four games of the season due to violation of league's substance abuse policy. Still, Marquis Lee, is an excellent target for Henne. Lee has the size, quickness, and hands to have a huge day against a suspect Eagle defensive secondary. The biggest matchup is Toby Gerhart at RB for JAX. The Eagles failed miserably to stop power runners between the tackles last season and it is quite possible they could be even worse in that category. Speaking of defense, JAX has a much improved scheme and one that I truly believe will cause major 'read' problems for both Foles and the Eagle receivers. Eagle fans may just think this will be a walk in the park, but they may be extremely anxious when JAX has the ball late in the 4th and down just 6 points or less. Take Jacksonville. |
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09-07-14 | Oakland Raiders +5.5 v. NY Jets | Top | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the NY Jets in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Rookie QB and a team that positively no one respects at all, yet this line is less than a score.  The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at winning the game SU. Given this favorable projection, I encourage you to make a combination wager consisting of an 8* amount using the line and a 2.5* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OAKLAND) that was a struggling  team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games. Derek Carr will start for the Raiders and rookies traditionally have had poor games in their first few starts. Yet, Carr has several matchup to exploit today. The Jets corners are not lock-down types as they had had in past seasons. In fact, I don't see them being able to play consistent man defense against the Raiders WR corp. Since HC Ryan became the Jets' head coach in 2009, rookie quarterbacks are 1-7 the first time they faced a Ryan defense. In those eight games, the rookies have completed 48.3 percent of their passes (129 of 267) for 1,522 yards, six touchdowns and eight interceptions and have absorbed 27 sacks. So, with this history lesson, the Raiders have an excellent OL and can easily run short passes into the flat and even bubble screens. Carr will no doubt use a quick release and get the ball out quickly. Further, I see the Oakland running game being highly effective against what will be an overly aggressive Jets defensive front. Once the ground game gets going, then Carr will have the luxury of using play action to freeze pass rushers and supporting LB. He has a tremendous arm and the Raiders will look to go deep in vertical pass routes on any down. Raiders will control the clock and that will be a big reason they win this game. Take the Raiders. |
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09-07-14 | Buffalo Bills +7 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they take on the Chicago Bear sin NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that the Bills will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at pulling off an improbably upset win. Â Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Â Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) and was a struggling team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games. The game projections call for a huge day on the ground by the Bills. The projections call for a 176 rushing yards. In past games, where the Bears have allowed more than 150 rushing yards, they are just 3-9 ATS the past three seasons and 18-56 ATS since 1992. When allowing 175+ rushing yards, the Bears are a money burning 2-5 ATS the past three seasons and 9-36 ATS since 1992. Bills are 5-3 ATS over the past three seasons and a 41-9 ATS since 1992 when gaining 175+ rushing yards. Bills will control the LOS on both sides of the ball and given the ground attack they will have a huge edge in TOP. Take the Bills. |
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09-06-14 | USC +3 v. Stanford | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Southern California Trojans as they take on Stanford in a huge Pac-12 matchup and one that will have major conference ramifications. Stanford has the nation's longest home winning streak at 18 games. All streaks do end, and I completely believe SC will dominate this game from start to finish.  The simulator shows a high probability that SC will win this game. With the line at +3, the ML does not afford an solid investment option. Should the line go to 3 1/2, which is not expected, the ML would then be more attractive. However, I will simply play this as a 25* graded amount using the line only. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-23 ATS mark for 71% winners since 2003. Play against a home team (STANFORD that was a poor passing defense from last season allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse and with 5 offensive starters returning and with the current game taking place in the first month of the season. 36 of the 55 winning plays covered the spread by 7 or more points.  The following game situations match the projections produced by the SIM. SC is a solid 22-8 against the money line (+16.3 Units) in road games when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards since 1992; 17-5 against the money line (+10.8 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 15-5 against the money line (+10.1 Units) when they rush for 2.5 to 3 yards per attempt since 1992; 42-10 against the money line (+29.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points since 1992. No doubt, the SC offense will put a lot of pressure on the Stanford defense, especially in the backend. Another matchup I see as a HUGE advantage for SC is DE Leonard Williams against Stanford LT Andrus Peat. Williams is huge, fast, and very quick for his size at 6-5 300 lbs. Peat is 6-7 and 312 lbs and has excellent technique and will certainly be playing on Sundays in the NFL. Yet, Williams has better technique and can gain leverage with his strong legs and get under Peat to move him laterally. This will be a matchup I will be watching very closely and one that I see Williams winning. Take USC. |
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09-06-14 | Oklahoma v. Tulsa +25 | Top | 52-7 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
10* graded play on Tulsa as they host Oklahoma in CFB action set to start at Noon ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that Tulsa will lose this game by fewer than 24 points. This is just too many points. Tulsa returns 10 starters on defense featuring SS Mudoch, who had 133 tackles last season and DE Alexander, who had 6.5 sacks last season. I strongly believe this unit will be up to the challenge that the Sooners offense will bring to the game. Sooners are re-tolling on offense with just 5 starters returning. Sooners are just 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in road games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. Oklahoma has been doing some talking this week in the media outlets clearly stating that they believe they have the best front seven in the nation. Perhaps they do, BUT they will be facing a vastly under rated QB in Dane Evans, who has a very quick 'Peyton Manning' release. Oklahoma looks to stop the run first and then get pressure on the QB. Yet, in this matchup, there won't be time for them to get on the QB and Evans is extremely accurate getting balls to receivers in space. Evans sees the field very well and his quick release will frustrate the Sooner pass rushers. Take Tulsa. |
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09-06-14 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +12.5 | Top | 32-28 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Iowa State as they host Kansas State in CFB action set to start at 12:00 Noon ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that Iowa State will lose this game by fewer than 12 points. If you can get a Money Line for this game, then add a 1.5* amount to the 10* unit line play. I have already nailed Texas A&M and Texas- San Antonio in their respective huge upset wins in Week 1. So, don't be surprised if Iowa State pulls of the same result today. ISU returns 10 starters including the QB on offense and this is a big time advantage for them facing a defensive unit that returns just 5 starters. Team chemistry, especially along an OL, is very critical in the first four weeks of the CFB season. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-12 ATS mark for 77% winners since 1992. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (IOWA ST) after being outgained by 225 or more total yards in their previous game and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. Of the plays made 51% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. So, look for ISU to make this a very close game throughout and a strong opportunity to win the game in the 4th quarter. Take Iowa State. |
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09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers +6 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 16-36 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Green Bay Packers as they take on Seattle in NFL action set to open the 2014 regular season at 8:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Packers will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at upsetting the reigning Super Bowl Champions. I like using a combination wager for this game by playing an 8* amount using the line and a 2.5* amount using the money line for a 10.5* total risk amount. Aaron Rogers is the dominant reason I see the Packers upsetting Seattle. McCarthy's west coats offensive schemes till stretch defense vertically and this is clearly where Rogers is exceptional. He is arguably the best deep thrower int he game having ranked second last season in Deep Passing Accuracy over the past three seasons. The ground attack will feature the power attack of Lacy. Nothing has changed really with the Packers ground attack other than Lacy will get even more touches in 2014. The power ground attack is strong enough for even elite defenses to have to respect and this in turn opens up play action for Rogers to add valuable time in the pocket to scan the field. When he has time, his accuracy is undeniably the best in the NFL. Last year was easily the best season of Jordy Nelson’s career. Having the Seneca Wallace-Scott Tolzien-Matt Flynn combination at quarterback for 7 games and without Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley on the field for most of the year made it all the more impressive. Showing that he can do just about anything, Nelson racked up the fourth-most receiving yards from the slot—an alignment he was rarely utilized in in the past. At the other receiver spot, Cobb was on pace for over 90 receptions and 1,200 yards prior to his injury and his 77.5% catch rate was the highest in the league at wide receiver. Russell Wilson is a contrast in QB form and purpose to that of Rogers. He is highly ineffective on passes of 30 yards or more and is average at best for passes between 21 and 30 yards. Despite his scrambling abilities, he is less effective in that situation than simply executing a drop pass play. On standard drop passes he completed 66% with a 73% accuracy rating. On rollouts he completed 62% and had a 75% accuracy rating. When on the run and scrambling he completed only 51% of his passes with a 53% accuracy rating. So, I fully expect Green bay will bring timely corner blitz pressure on him from the weak side of the offensive alignment. Although Seattle is an elite team, I strongly believe that Green Bay has a ton to prove. Take Green Bay. |
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09-04-14 | Arizona v. Texas-San Antonio +7 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
10* graded play on Texas-San Antonio as they host Arizona in College Football action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UTSA will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at upsetting a major PAC-12 foe. Given this favorable projection, I suggest making this a combination wager using an 8* amount on the line and a 2.5* play using the money line for a total of 10.5* worth of risk. This combination maximizes the risk/reward profile produced by the SIM projections. I had UTSA last week in their huge 27-7 win at Houston where they were installed as 8 point dogs. That was certainly no fluke as my research report showed and I expect another great effort by this team Thursday night. The defense held Houston to just 26 yards rushing on 23 carries and forced 6 turnovers. They are a dominant run offensive scheme and that wore down the Houston defensive front very quickly. I fully expect that pounding type of game to have the same impact on the ARZ defense. The SIM shows that UTSA will rush for at least 150 yards. In past games where they have rushed for 150 to 200 rushing yards they are a perfect 7-0 ATS over the past three seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-6 ATS mark for 83.3% winners since 2003. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTSA) and is a team that had a winning record last season and now facing a non-conference foe. Take UTSA. |
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09-01-14 | Miami (Florida) +3.5 v. Louisville | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Miami Hurricanes as they take on the Louisville Cardinal in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given the DOG projections, I suggest playing this Titan release as a combination wager consisting of a 7* play using the line and a 3.5* amount using the Money Line for a total risk of 10.5* units. The money line is at +150 and a 3.5* wager would return 4.5 units in profits, which combined with the 7* line win adds an additional 15% in total profits earned for the play. Although, this does not seem that significant on the surface, over the course of the season it will certainly add up to a very significant result. Just this past week I had Texas A&M in a monster upset of South Carolina and Texas-San Antonio in another big time upset win with both returning very nice additions by adding the Money Line combination wager to the play. The following game situations match the SIM projections for this game. Miami is a solid money making  23-10 against the money line (+14.8 Units) in road games when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards since 1992; 20-10 against the money line (+10.6 Units) when they rush for 3.5 to 4 yards per attempt since 1992; Louisville is just  8-10 against the money line (-18.6 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 9-9 against the money line (-27.8 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 net passing yards since 1992. The point is that the records may not produce high percentage results, but you and I must always being looking at units won/lost for meaningful insight to game situations. The Hurricanes will dominate the LOS with a pounding ground attack led by Duke Johnson, who you may remember was the starting back in 2013 and had the Hurricanes off to a 7-0 start before season ending injury sidelined him. He had well over 900 rushing yards in 6 games at that point. This ground attack is eactly what any team needs when starting a true freshman and the Hurricanes have a great one under center in Brad Kaaya. Take the Hurricanes. |
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08-31-14 | SMU v. Baylor UNDER 75 | Top | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10* graded play 'UNDER' Baylor-SMU in College Football action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 71 points will be scored in this game. Baylor will open up their new stadium along the Brazos River tonight. It seats 45,000 fans and some can arrive by boat to attend the game. Yet, with all of the fanfare for past accomplishments that led to the pouring of donations from alumni for this campus project, both teams will not be nearly as attractive on the field tonight. Â SMU returns 6 players each on offense and defense and will be starting a new QB. Baylor returns 6 players on offense including their reigning Big-12 Offensive Player of the Year, Petty. On defense they return just four starters and questions abound about the quality of the secondary. SMU HC June Jones has stated that their offense will feature the pass plays and the same offensive scheme that finished 6th in the FBS in pass attempts. Despite the pass-happy attack, the Mustangs struggled to reach the end zone scoring only 26.8 points per game and their 10.2 yards per catch was the lowest under Jones. Both receivers with more than 100 catches, including returning junior Darius Joseph (103 yards, 808 yards, five TDs), averaged fewer than 10 yards. Simply, the total line of 75 points more than reflects the offensive output of both teams. The dominant key I see in this game, is that Baylor does not have to respect the SMU ground attack and can play nickel and dime packages serving to eliminate big play potential and force check downs to execute plays. Screen plays become meaningless against a mostly zone scheme and forces SMU into a one-dimensional situation. Of course, if they do try to establish the run, it will take clumps of time off the clock and serve to shorten the game. Despite being young and untested, I strongly believe that Baylor's defense will play very well and contain SMU to a minimal amount of points on the board. Take the 'UNDER' |
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08-30-14 | Louisiana Tech v. Oklahoma UNDER 54 | Top | 16-48 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
10* graded play 'UNDER' Louisiana Tech-Oklahoma in College Football action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 51 point will be cored in this game. Sooners return just 5 starters on offense, but nine of defense. The Sooner defensive unit will be the key to this game and I fully expect them to contain the LT offense that returns 6 starters on offense. Further, LT went from 51.5 PPG in 2012 to just 19.2 PPG last season and even with several transfers including former LSU WR Paul Turner, I just don't see this offense being able to consistently move the chains and score points against the Sooner defensive unit. Despite the Sooners returning 5 offensive starters, they have essentially reloaded the offense and have a very good QB in Sophomore Knight. In this matchup they don't need to take high risks or even stretch the field. Just simple catch and run plays augmented by a solid ground attack will lead to an easy win. Remember too, that Knight threw for 348 passing yards and 4 TD against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl last year. This is not suggesting at all that Oklahoma is another optional play. These matchups simply point out that Oklahoma can manage their game plan to execute long time consuming scoring drives which shorten the game. Moreover, the Sooner defensive front seven is one of the best in the nation, but they are very young in the secondary. Again, I don't see LT being able to exploit this inexperience because they won't be able to contain the defensive front. This all leads to a much lower scoring game. SIM shows that LT will score fewer than 14 points. In past games, Sooners are a solid  24-9 'under' when allowing fewer than 14 points since 1992. LT is a solid 5-1 'under' the past three seasons and 29-7 'under; since 1992 when scoring 14 or fewer points. Take the 'UNDER" |
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08-30-14 | Boston College v. UMass +17.5 | Top | 30-7 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
10* graded play on Massachusetts as they take on Boston College in NCAAF action set to start at 3:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BC will lose this game by fewer than 15 points. BC lost it's three best offensive players from last year's 7-6 bowl season. In fact they return just 3 starters offense and no player had more than 15 catches last season. They have ahd several key additions through transfers, but team chemistry, especially on the offensive line is a critical factor in the first four weeks of the season. Further, BC returns 6 starters on defense, so here again, execution will be inconsistent during games in the early part of the season. UMASS had a horrid season and certainly will look to turn things around. One of the most important decision made was to go to a 3-4 defensive alignment. Given their personnel, this is the right decision and will pay off big for them during the season. This alignment will also let their stud LB Andrey, who had 111 tackles last season, to be an even greater disruptive force. Take UMASS. |
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08-29-14 | Texas-San Antonio +11.5 v. Houston | Top | 27-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
10* graded play on Texas San Antonio as they take on Houston in CFB action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TSA will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. This game mirrors my winning play last night with Texas A&M and like the A&M wager I encourage you to add no greater than 1.5* amount using the money line to the 10* wage amount on the line. UTSA's entire O-Line returns to its run-oriented offense propelled by RB David Glasco II (496 rush yds, 5.2 YPC, 5 TD). WR Kam Jones (345 rec yds, 302 rush yds, 6 total TD) is the No. 1 wideout for new QB Tucker Carter (190 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT), who replaces Eric Soza. The Roadrunners' 4-2-5 defense is strong throughout with DE Robert Singletary (5 sacks), LB Drew Douglas (70 tackles), S Triston Wade (94 tackles) and CB Bennett Okotcha (10 PD). Of the units, TSA returns 10 starters each on offense and defense. This playing experience is a significant factor in matchups during the first four weeks of the season. The Sim projects that TSA will gain between 150 to 200 rushing yards and 350 to 400 total offensive yards. In past games, TSA is a perfect 6-0 ATS over the past three season in each situation mentioned. Take Texas-San Antonio. |
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08-28-14 | Texas A&M +10.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 52-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Texas A&M Aggies as they take on the South Carolina Gamecocks in inter-conference action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that A&M will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. If you have access to a money line I would recommend no more than a 1.5* amount to exploit the potential big time upset. Both teams return 14 starts combined and both have lost key play makers from last year's season. South Carolina returns eight starters on offense, but has a new quarterback under center. Their offense will be featuring scat back Mike Davis, who emerged last season as fantastic playmaker. However, the A&M defense returns 9 starters from last year's unit and will be vastly better this season. They have the experience and discipline not to get caught out of position with poor angles of attack in containing Davis. Forcing Thompson to win the game with his arm is the recipe for A&M to make this a single digit game throughout. Of note too is that Davis is listed as probable for tonight's game. He is enduring a rib injury and that is one that is quite painful on any type of hit at this level of football. SIM projects that A&M will score 28 points. In past games where the Gamecocks have allowed 28 points, they are a money burning 0-5 ATS over the past three seasons and 18-62 ATS since 1992. When they allow 31 to 41 points, they are an even worse 0-2 ATS over the past three seasons and 4-17 ATS since 1992. Take the Aggies. |
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Denver Broncos OVER 47 | Top | 43-8 | Win | 100 | 79 h 49 m | Show |
10* graded play taking the 'OVER' in Super Bowl XLVIII featuring the AFC Champion Denver Broncos taking on the NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks set to kickoff at 6:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that more than 48 points will be scored in this game. Let's first take a look at some supporting system and game situations. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?27-5 'over' mark for 84% winners since 1983. This system is 5-1 over the L5 seasons and 12-1 over the past 10 seasons. Play 'over' with any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) an excellent offensive team scoring >=27 PPG) and facing a solid defensive team allowing between 14 and 18 PPG and after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games. SIM projects that Seattle will score between 22 and 28 points; that Denver will gain 6.0 to 6.5 passing yards per attempt; and that both teams will score at least 20 points each. In past games, Denver is 4-1 'over' this season, 11-2 'over' the past three seasons, and 60-19 'over' since 1992 when they have allowed 22 to 28 points. Denver is 5-1 'over' the past three seasons and 28-12 'over' since 1992 when they have gained 6.0 to 6.5 passing yards per attempt. Denver is a resounding 10-2 'over' this season, 24-3 'over' the past three seasons, and an amazing 139-7 'over' since 1992 when both teams score 20+ points each. Fox is a solid Fox is 16-4 OVER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points as the HC of the Broncos; Fox is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in games played on turf; 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game; 19-7 OVER (+11.3 Units) when facing solid offensive teams averaging >=5.65 yards/play. Carroll is a solid 4-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) when facing excellent kickoff return teams averaging more than 24 yards per return in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992. Denver is a solid 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) when facing excellent teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season in the second half of the season since 1992. The most important matchup for the 'over' to win his Lynch and the Seattle offensive line go up against the Denver defensive front 7 that has allowed just one 100 yards rusher (Mathews Week 15) this season. Lynch is peaking right now and his stats are some of the best ever in post season play. He is averaging 2.7 yards after contact and has tremendous leg and upper body strength. 80% of the running plays for him are design to be power types between the tackles. He ahs averaged 93.3 yards per post season game matching HOF Emmitt Smith. Only Terrell Davis, John Riggins, and Eric Dickerson have averaged more YPG than Lynch in the post season. The 49ers arguably had the best defense in the playoffs, but even they learned it was easier said then done to bring him down on first contact.stopping Lynch in the playoffs is easier said than done. Lynch rushed for 109 yards in the NFC Championship Game, with 41 coming after first contact (1.9 per rush). Lynch gained 43 yards after contact at 0.9 per rush in the regular season versus the 49ers. So, you can readily see, he is NOT in the least fatigued by the 16-game regular season. Denver will be forced to bring a safety to the LOS to defend the ground game. However, this defensive move has to be more than just a 'spy' situation where the safety is responsible for containing Lynch and Wilson. Play action for Wilson will be a HUGE offensive play and will nearly always have Harvin and/or Tate in man coverage situations. Now, Denver should not have much difficulty moving the ball on offense between the 20's. What truly matters for Seattle in this game is how many four-point plays they make in the red zone. In other words, this means how many times, does Seattle force a FG successfully defending third down (difference between 7 and 3 point scores). If Denver has more TD than FG the result will be a Denver Championship, but for us the "over" will win no matter what the ratio. Take the 'OVER'
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 43-8 | Win | 100 | 56 h 7 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Seattle Seahawks as they take on the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII set to start at 6;30 PM ET Sunday, February 2. The simulator shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game. Seattle will get the ground game going with Lynch and will control the clock with a sizable advantage in TOP. SIM projects that Seattle will gain between 150 and 200 net passing yards; will gain between 125 and 150 rushing yards; will average 4.0 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt; and will gain 300 to 35o total offensive yards. In past games, Seattle is 4-0 ATS this season and 11-2 ATS the L3 seasons when gaining between 150 an d200 net passing yards; 3-0 ATS this season and 9-1 ATS the L3 seasons when they gain 125 to 150 rushing yards; 2-0 ATS this season and 8-1 ATS the L3 seasons when gaining 4.0 to 4.5 yards per rushing attempt; and 4-0 ATS this season and 9-2 ATS the past three seasons when gaining between 300 an d350 total offensive yards. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?48-49 mark for 49.5% winners, BUT has made a whopping 50 units per unit wagered using the money line since 1983. The system has averaged a +210 dog. Play against any team using the money line (DENVER) that is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 100 or more yards/game and after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game. I have no doubt, fundamentally speaking, that HC Carroll and OC Bevell will design a successful game plan to establish the power running game with Lynch. Denver may be statistically strong stopping the run, but they are VERY thin up front and have yet to face an OL and RB like Lynch this season. Eighty percent of the running plays designed for Lynch are run between the tackles where Lynch ranks third on the all-time playoff list posting a 2.9 yards gained AFTER contact. The constant pounding and multiple attempts on each play to bring down Lynch are going to take their toll on the thin Denver DL. Moreover, Wilson makes less money than the long snapper and this has allowed Seattle to form one of the best OL in the game today. You will see a solid formation nearly every time by Seattle with Wilson under center, Lynch in the half back position, a FB to Lynch's left, and a TE lined up on the strong side of the LOS (side that is furthest from the out-of-bounds- marker). This power formation is not only designed for the run game, but also to afford Wilson enough protection for him to use his gifted running abilities to extend plays. This is perhaps even more of a dominant situation than Lynch will be in this game. There are few Denver defenders than can continue to cover well in extended plays and that is exactly what he is best at creating. When extending plays, Wilson is 27-for-60 throwing down field further than 20 yards, ranking best in the NFL. Just ask the 49ers how it is and believe me Denver's secondary is nowhere close to the talent and execution of the 49er unit. So, at the end of the day, I believe it will be the Seattle offense that was just too difficult to contain. Take Seattle.
Prop best are as follows: Lynch MVP at 15/4 Lynch over 90 1/2 rushing yards Lynch OVER longest run from scrimmage 19 1/2 Turbin rushing yards 'OVER' 10 1/2 Harvin 'OVER' 45 1/2 receiving yards. Manning 'OVER' incomplete passes 12 1/2 D Thomas 'under' 75 1/2 receiving yards |
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01-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -107 | 50 h 2 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game set to start at 6:30 PM ET, Sunday, January 19, 2014. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game. I like making this a combination wager using a 9* play using the line and adding a 2.5* amount using the money for a total risk of 11.5* amount. The majority of books I monitor have the ML listed at +165 and this combination bet serves to maximize the Return-on-investment (ROI) quotient. I am 4-0-1 ATS with my previous games of the year and THREE of those plays were DOGS that won the game. Last week I nailed the Patriots as my AFC DIV Game of the Year winner. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?23-7 mark using the money line for 77% winners and has made 21 units/unit wagered since 1983. Plat against any team using the money line (SEATTLE) after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games and in a game involving two top-level teams posting win percentages >= 75%. 49ers are a near-perfect 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a top-level team winning > 75% of their games over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last 3 seasons. The Seahawks have had the best secondary in the NFL led by their All-Pro CBs in Sherman and Thomas. Sherman had very impressive grades despite being targeted ONLY 58 times this season. He led the NFL with eight interceptions, which means he picked off a pass very 13% of passes targeting his receiver. These two CB had the luxury of also having two stout safeties in Thomas and Chancellor protecting the middle of the field. HOWEVER, the 49ers are a team that has steadily improved for the second half of the season and now have a very healthy Crabtree back that more than compliments a very strong power running attack led by Gore and the elusive and speed of QB Kaepernick. I see Seattle being forced to pick their poison; defend the perimeter with both safeties helping deep or taking one of those safeties to stop the run or to be the 'spy' on Kaepernick. Many times, the 49ers call two plays in the huddle and then Kaepernick will call the one that matches up best to the defense he sees pre-snap. The noise in Seattle will be deafening, but actually could be a bit of a blessing for the 49ers, who have had their share of delay-of-game penalties this season. The noise will almost assuredly prevent them from calling two plays. Instead, hand signals between receivers and Kaepernick will be the code for hot reads. I also see the 49ers defensive front containing Lynch and forcing Wilson to win the game with his arm. The 49ers defensive front 7 is among the best in the NFL - if not presently the best - and have not allowed a 100-yard rusher all season. The 49ers also picked up free agent Glenn Dorsey, who has graded among the elite DT in the game and has been extremely good at stopping the run. Moreover, the 49ers have the two-best inside linebackers in the game today in Willis and Bowman. The absence of a Lynch ground attack will lead to Wilson having to convert third-an-long situations far more often than Kaepernick will be facing. 49ers offense has a great TE in Davis to offset any zone blitz schemes and he has speed and size advantages on play action against any linebacker or safety on the field. It will be a very physical game, but I strongly believe that the 49ers will eventually dominate both sides of the LOS. Take the San Francisco 49ers.
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01-12-14 | San Diego Chargers +8.5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Diego Chargers as they take on the Denver Broncos in AFC Divisional Playoff action set to start at 4:40 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Chargers will lose this game by 6 or fewer points and has a great opportunity to win this game. Given this favorable projection I suggest making a combination wager using a 10* amount on the line and then adding a 1.5* amount using the ML. The current ML is listed at +330 and this would return about +4.8 more units to the overall bet than simply playing the line along. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-25 mark for just 57% winners, BUT has made 67 units/unit wagered since 1983. The average play has been a +280 DOG play making this a very powerful system. Play against favorites using the money line (DENVER) dominant team outgaining their opponents by 100 or more yards/game and after outgaining opponents by 150 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. Here is a second system that has gone 24-19 for 56% winners, BUT has made 47 units/unit wagered since 1983. Average play has been a +265 DOG. Play against favorites using the money line (DENVER) with an incredible offense averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after outgaining opponents by 150 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. I believe the Chargers will have the better ground attack and this will allow Rivers extra time in play action to make plays in the passing game. Rodgers-Cromartie is by far the best coverage man for the Broncos and Rivers will look elsewhere most of this game. Bailey will be starting this game, but has been dealing with a litany of injuries. I see this as a matchup favoring the Chargers, especially when covering Royal in the slot or on the perimeter. IN my Game of the Year winner with the Patriots, I mentioned that Jamie Collins was not a drop off in talent replacing the injured Spikes; that the matchup actually improved with Collins on the field given his speed and quickness. Much in the same way, the Chargers are without their No.1 pass rusher in Dwight Freeney, but have 2011 first round DE Corey Liuget on the field. He had four hurries on Manning one of which led to an INT. This is a playmaker that I expect to have a strong game today. Denver defensive front has been largely inconsistent in pass rush this season. I think this weakness has been disguised by the fact that Denver has been playing with multi-score leads. Sd will have the better defensive line and will get more pressure on Manning, than Denver's defensive line causing problems for Rivers. Take the San Diego Chargers.
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01-11-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 22-43 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
10* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Divisional Playoff Round. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 9 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?150-78 ATS mark for 66% winners since 1983. This system is also 7-1 ATS this season. Play against any team (INDIANAPOLIS) off an upset win as a home underdog and with a winning record on the season. I learned along time ago when playing ball at various levels and football and baseball that is not the ace of the pitching staff or the three-hitter in the lineup, or the stud WR, or the All-American QB, that wins you Championships or simply produces a successful season. It is the last 6 players in baseball, and the 3rd and fourth units in football. Everyone either hates or admires Belichick for his ability to 'plug-and-play' year after year. It's far more than just that process though. It is the entire coaching staff dedication to making the players 31 to 53 as good as their potential allows - while not in the starting lineup. No one does it better and we have seen this theme yet again in a season where the Patriots due resemble the Revolutionary War editions. Ok, so that is a nice story. Here is the reality and it starts with the injuries. Injuries are common throughout the NFL, but what the Patriots have suffered borders on the absurd. Six key starters are gone: Vince Wilfork, Rob Gronkowski, Jerod Mayo, Sebastian Vollmer, Tommy Kelly, and most recently Spikes. The new starters have become Chris Jones, Sealver Siliga, Joe Vellano, Dane Fletcher, and Matthew Mulligan. Now with Spikes out, get to know Jamie Collins, Ja
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01-06-14 | Auburn v. Florida State -9 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
10* graded play on Florida State as they take on Auburn in the BCS Championship Game set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?58-20 mark for 75% winners since 2003. Play against any team (AUBURN) after allowing 37 points or more last game and is now facing an opponent after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points. Here is a second system that has gone 40-13 for 76% winners since 2003. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA ST) that is an excellent defensive team allowing <=16 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 21 to 28 PPG and after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. I went on record in Week 4 of the regular season that FSU was the pick to win the BCS Championship it was solely because of the incredible defense that I saw forming - not because I thought they have a juggernaut offense led by a Heisman trophy winner. However, the entire team has come together in a rather historical manner and I do not see Auburn having strong success against the FSU defense. Auburn is essentially a one dimensional team with a spread 'read' type of ground attack. Auburn has been very successful against a ton of SEC teams, but they have not faced the speed, quickness, depth, and athleticism that the FSU defense brings to this matchup. Auburn will get yards on the ground, but it will not be enough to stay with the FSU offense. At some point, Auburn will fall behind by 2 scores and be forced to throw the ball more than their game plan calls for. This game will be played on grass and this is the surface where FSU has gone 10-1 ATS this season; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a cover as a double digit favorite this season. Fisher is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 7 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach at FSU. At th eend of the day, I simply see FSU with more talent and ones that will make more significant plays than Auburn. Take FSU.
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01-05-14 | San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Wild Card game set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by four or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-12 ATS mark for 75% winners since 1983. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN FRANCISCO) off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less and is a solid team winning 60% to 75% of their games and now playing a team with a winning record. Much ahs been talked about the facts that it will be very cold at game time and may be at least the second coldest game ever played. However, this does not favor the home team. Given these incredibly cold temps, the football contracts in size and will get very hard to throw. What doesn't change is the huge matchup advantage the 49ers have in running the ball. The SIM shows that the 49ers will gain at least 150 rushing yards and will gain 6.0+ yards-per-play. In past games, the 49ers are 5-2 ATS this season, 16-7 ATS the past three seasons, and 74-27 ATS since 1992 when gaining 125+ yards in a game; 3-1 ATS this season and 17-4 ATS the past three seasons when gaining 6.0 yards-per-play. HC Harbaugh is a money making 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) when facing struggling defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play as the coach of SF; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games this season. I don't see the Packers being able to contain the 49er ground attack and I also believe, given the cold temps, the 49ers will use Kaepernick out of the pistol formation far more than in previous games. The other major matchup I see dominated by the 49ers is against Packers rookie LT Bakhtiari, who will be going against either Aldon or Justin Smith. The Packers will use a majority of spread formations, which will leave Bakhtiari on an island. Although he has had a great rookie season, this will be his most difficult assignment this season. Aldon Smith has far too much speed and quickness and Justin Smith can use bull charges to over power Bakhtiari in both run and pass situations. He ranks 72nd in run blocking out of 76 LT in the NFL and this allows the 49ers defensive to 'lean' to the right side of the GB OL to react to run plays. The 49ers are finally back to full health as a team and their depth is superior on both sides of the ball as well. Take the 49ers.
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01-05-14 | San Diego Chargers +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
10* graded play on the San Diego Chargers as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Wild Card game set to start at 1:00 PM ET. I also like playing this DOG as a combination bet and would suggest an 8* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line. The simulator shows a high probability that San Diego will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and have a great shot at winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 65-32 ATS for 67% winners since 1983. Play on road underdogs or pick (SAN DIEGO) and is a solid offensive team scoring 24 or more points/game and after a win by 3 or less points. 42 of the 65 winners also covered by a minimum of 7 points and this underscores my strong belief that the Chargers can win this game. SIM shows that the Chargers ground attack led by Ryan Matthews will be strong and will gain between 125 and 150 rushing yards. In past games, the Chargers are a solid 4-1 ATS this season, 8-1 ATS the past three seasons, and 35-10 ATS since 1996 when gaining between 125 and 150 rushing yards. The matchup that I believe SD will win consistently and one that will lead to their upset victory is the play of the Charger offensive tackles Fluker and Dunlap. In the first game these two teams played, Fluker played LT for the injured Dunlap and Bengals DE Johnson dominated. Fluker struggled mightily at LT, but his return to RT has been some of the best in the NFL. Dunlap is the top-rated run blocker in the NFL despite missing several games and the combination of the duo will be a daunting task for the Bengals defensive front to overcome. Dunlap is fantastic at sealing off defenders to create holes with RB averaging 4.1 YPR on carries to the left side and 7.4 in the left 'B' gap. Johnson is undoubtedly the team leader on defense, but he can't do it alone. Rivers is a smart QB and will be able to select the best matchup on each play and then it comes down to execution. Rivers is completing nearly 75% of his non-pressured passes, tossing 24 touchdowns to only seven interceptions. The major difference in this matchup is that Rivers does much better than Dalton in pressured situations. Further, I see the Chargers being able to get pressure on Dalton far more often than the Bengals will get on Rivers. Rivers has completed 56% of his passes averaging 8.5 yards-pre-pass when pressured. Dalton has completed just 39% of his pressured pass attempts with three TD and 6 picks. Take the Chargers.
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01-04-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 54 | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
10* graded play 'UNDER' Saints/Philadelphia in the First Round Wild Card game set to start at 8:10 PM ET. I also have a 5* graded play on the Saints. I would suggest playing a 1* parlay taking the Saints usig the money line and the 'under'. Another strong ROI profile is wager a 10* 'under' and then add a 4* parlay playing 'under' and the Saints on the money line. I prefer the latter. Lincoln Financial Field will be rocking amid frigid temps. I do not see weather impacting this 'total' and am expecting no further line movement over the next 24 hours leading up to game time. Weather will be a dominant determinant for the game plan of both offenses. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 50 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?43-14 mark for 75% winners since 1983. Play 'under' with home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) excellent passing team gaining >=7.3 PYA) and is now facing an average passing defense allowing between 5.9 and 6.7 PYA after 8+ games and after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. This system is quite rare, but wins at a very high percentage and does under score how total lines can become quite inflated given teams' recent performances. However, when the temps get this cold (at or below zero) the ball physically contracts and becomes very hard. So, despite Drew Brees having won a Super Bowl and being the second most accurate passer in NFL history, the ground attack will be a major piece of the game plan. The same can be said of the Eagles, who have the NFL leading rusher and leading total yards from scrimmage player in McCoy. This may be the coldest game played in Philadelphia history, so it will impact all players alike. The fact that the Saints have not won a road playoff game, has more to do with the fact that it was on the road where it is always more difficult to win in a hostile environment. Keep in mind Foles and several players on that offense played in warm climates in college. No one gets used to zero degree weather expect those people living north of the border. Given the temps, turnovers are more prone to occur, which could lead to short field scoring opportunities. Yet, these turnovers may also occur in the red zone, stopping point scoring drives. So, I feel confident turnovers will not be a factor that will impact more scoring. Jimmy Graham is a monster for any defense to cover and he leads the NFL with 16 TD. Kendricks will be overwhelmed by Graham in this matchup. Graham was targeted a team-high 135 times and 18 of those were routes of20 yards or more leading to 5 TD. Morevoer, in the last two games of the season, Kendricks allowed TE to catch eight of the ten passes thrown to them while he was in coverage. For the season he ranks 54th out of 55 qualifying inside linebackers in coverage grade. Graham's presence forces the Eagles to not blitz and attempt to pressure Brees. Graham lies up in the slot 50% of the plays run this season allowing the Saints to spread the field and expose the middle of the Eagles very weak interior defense. Further Brees has a remarkable 105 QB rating in his career when pressured and this reflects his ability to defeat blitz schemes. Foles has had a great run, but he is playing his first NFL playoff game with a rookie HC. Saints have Super Bowl winning experience and it will show in this game.
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01-03-14 | Clemson +3 v. Ohio State | Top | 40-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Clemson Tigers as they take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Orange Bowl set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game. I normally like using a combination bet when playing a 10* DOG. However, I have only seen a few +125 and I normally require +135 to make a combination wager. The current line is +3 and the line has more of a chance to drop back to 2 1/2 at this point in the afternoon. So, simply play this game as a straight 10* getting the line you are given. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?49-19 record for 72% winners making 36 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (OHIO ST) excellent rushing team gaining >=230 RYPG and is now facing a team with an average rushing defense allowing between 140 and 190 RYPG and after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game. This system has gone 5-1 making 4.6 units/unit wagered. The average play has been a plus 117 DOG, which nearly matches the line for this game. SIM projects that Clemson will score 28 or more points. In past games, Clemson is 11-1 against the money line (+10.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. They are also a resounding 8-1 against the money line (+8.2 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. Clemson may have been beaten badly by FSU, but they a very quick defense that Ohio State has not seen this season. Ohio State will move the ball, but the Clemson defense will hold up throughout the game. Moreover, I definitely see Clemson having a big night on offense and has the ground attack that can wear down the OSU defensive front. Clemson has had big vertical plays on first down situations after attaining the first down on the ground. Take Clemson.
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01-02-14 | Oklahoma v. Alabama OVER 52 | Top | 45-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
10* graded play 'OVER' the posted total in the Sugar Bowl featuring Oklahoma taking on Alabama set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that 54 or more points will be scored in this game. They key here for this play is Alabama's ability to score 35+ points or more. The SIM shows a very high probability they will. In past games, Oklahoma is 42-12 when allowing just 28 points since 1992. When allowing between 29 and 35, Oklahoma is 19-6 'over' since 1992. Another factor I see happening in this game that could easily turn into a track meet is that the Sooners will be successful moving the ball against Alabama. Sooners are projected to have between 150 and 200 rushing yards and will average between 5.5 and 6.0 yards per play. In past games, Tide is 16-5 'over' when allowing 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play and Oklahoma is a perfect 6-0 over the past three seasons when gaining this range of yards. When I look at the matchup between the Sooners ground attack and Alabama's defensive front, I strongly believe that the Sooners OL will wear them down. Sooners will also spread the field with four and five wide receiver sets, place TE on the perimeter and then use power running plays between the tackles. Tide loves to bring safeties up to the LOS for either run stop or gap blitzing schemes. It has been noted every week of the regular season Oklahoma's quarterback situation has been a season-long carousel between Trevor Knight, Blake Bell and Kendal Thompson. Stoops said his starter for the Sugar Bowl would be a "game-time decision", but I believe the team does know who will start tonight. No matter the starter is they will have very easy reads, the same ones and same situations that Auburn exploited, and use quick slants to completely offset the pressure. The QB will also have the opportunity to use play action to freeze the safety. If the safety comes, it is a hot read to a TE or back out of the backfield. If the safety stays put, then that QB can look over the top of him to a completely vacant center of the field for crossing routes. I also don't think it needs much explaining here that Alabama will move the ball almost at will. In case you are wondering, I don't see the Sooners covering and would only do so in a back door type situation. So, we follow the SIM and play a 10* amount 'OVER'
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01-01-14 | Iowa +8 v. LSU | Top | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Iowa Hawkeyes as they take on the LSU Tigers in the Outback Bowl set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Iowa will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given the favorable projections and like my three previous Games of the Year winners, I encourage you to make a combination bet. The ROI favors placing a 9* play on Iowa and a 2.5* play on Iowa using the money line. This is obviously more than the 10* graded amount, but using these combination plays over the course of a full season adds a significant amount to my bottom line. Iowa is a solid 35-15 ATS (+18.5 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=200 rushing yards/game since 1992; 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game since 1992; 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games since 1992. Ferentz is a solid 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games; 28-9 ATS (+18.1 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=200 rushing yards/game; Miles is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) after a 2 game home stand as the coach of LSU. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-27 mark for just 49% winners, but has made a whopping 55 units/unit wagered since 1992. This system is one of the most powerful money makers I know and has averaged an incredible +305 DOG play. SIM projects that Iowa will gain between 3.5 and 4.0 rushing yards per attempt. In past games, Iowa is a resounding 25-14 against the money line (+14.3 Units) when they rush for 3.5 to 4 yards per attempt since 1992. Adding to this is the fact that Iowa is a near-perfect 7-2 against the money line (+9.0 Units) as a neutral field underdog of +220 or less using the money line since 1992. There is no doubt the SEC is a monumentally more difficult conference than the Big Ten. However, based on these teams schedules, Iowa has a modestly more difficult schedule than LSU so statistical comparisons are much more valid in this matchup. The Iowa defense will contain the LSU offense. Iowa ranks 7th in the nation allowing 4.6 yards-per-play, 11th allowing 19.2 PPG, 8th allowing 312 yards-per-game, ninth allowing 6.0 yards-per-pass attempt. I love the matchups that Iowa has on defense and they do have the team speed to make it very difficult for LSU to move the chains and produce time consuming scoring drives. In sum, the Iowa offense is a power running type and will wear down the LSU defensive front. LSU will need at least one safety for run stop purposes and this then opens up play action to exploit man coverage and the best matchup on the field. Take Iowa.
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12-31-13 | Virginia Tech v. UCLA OVER 47 | Top | 12-42 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
10* graded play 'OVER' V-Tech/UCLA in the Sun Bowl set to start at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that 49 or more points will be scored in this game. UCLA has a very good QB in Hundley, who leads the Pac-12 with a 67.8 completion percentage, throwing for 2,845 yards with 22 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He's been picked off once while tossing eight scoring passes over the past five games.?He has been sacked 33 times, second most in the conference. V-Tech has a solid defense that loves to bring pressure and has had a solid run stop defensive front. Hundley's sacks have been the result of him holding the ball too long and then trying to extend the play. The defensive matchup Tech brings to this game, will simply force Hundley to know he has to get the ball out early and quickly. This also favors his WR, who have significant matchup advantages in speed and quickness. Getting the ball to them in space on quick slants will be a featured play early in this game. UCLA will have a very difficult time stopping the Hokie offense. Edmunds leads Virginia Tech with 675 yards while averaging 4.1 per carry with 12 touchdowns - 10 rushing. He's facing a UCLA defense that gave up an average of 193.6 rushing yards over its last seven games. I just see this game turning into a 'track meet' with lots of scores. Take the 'OVER'
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12-31-13 | Boston College +7.5 v. Arizona | Top | 19-42 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
10* graded play on the Boston College as they take on Arizona in the ADOCARE Bowl set to start at 12:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BC will lose this game by fewer than 6 points. I am goig to add just a 2* piece using the money line in addition to the 120* amount using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?47-52 ,ark for just 48% winners, but has made 47 units/unit wagered since 2007. The average play has been a plus 211 dog. Play on underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (BOSTON COLLEGE) after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. This is a very powerful system and one that you should write down and store for action next season. This system has gone 8013, BUT has made 2.6 units in profits this season. One of the dominant themes of my 19 years of sports wagering has been leaning on dogs that my research show can cover easily and then have a great shot at winning the game. The majority of plays over this successful season in CFB and NFL have been based mainly on dogs. In fact, my NFC GOY winner +& Minnesota in Week 15, AFC GO+Y winner Colts in Week 16, and NFL GOY winner SF in Week 17 were all dogs that won the game. Now, this is not a game where I would say Game of the Year status, but it is a 10* graded Titan by the SIM. The SIM projects that BC will gain between 4.5 and 5.0 yards/rush and will gain between 5.5 and 6.0 yards/play. In past games, BC is a solid 10-3 against the money line (+8.2 Units) in road games when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt since 1992; Arizona is just 8-17 against the money line (-18.2 Units) when they allow 5.5 to 6 total yards per play since 1992. Moreover, BC is a solid 16-5 against the money line (+26.2 Units) after a loss by 6 or less points since 1992. Take Boston College.
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