For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL | CFB | MLB | NBA | CBB | NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-02-16 | Broncos v. Bucs +3 | Top | 27-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
25* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Denver in NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that TB will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 71-37 ATS for 66% winners since 1983. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) off a upset win as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Denver is a money burning 21-50 ATS (-34.0 Units) when they rush for 75 to 100 yards; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Further, TB is a stout 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. Fundamental Discussion Points Winston threw for 389 yards on 36-for-58 passing in a loss to the Rams last week. Denver is a much better defensive team, but Winston has the mobility to extend plays. This capability is the perfect anecdote for an overly aggressive defense like Denver. If Denver opts not to bring pressure, then Winston has the arm to execute and compete underneath routs in a zone coverage scheme. I am looking for Winston to have another huge day with this one ending in a win. |
|||||||
10-02-16 | Panthers v. Falcons +3 | Top | 33-48 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
25* graded play on Atlanta as they take on Carolina in NFC South action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-4 mark good for 87% winners and has made 24 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on any team vs the money line (ATLANTA) and is a mistake-free team committing 0.75 or less turnovers/game, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Over the last 3 seasons this system has gone 18-2 making 18.8 units/unit wagered. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Atlanta is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Although just three weeks into the season, the Falcons are the top scoring offense in the league at 34.7 PPG. They are also best in yards gained per game (448), best in points per play at 0.545. The point is that Carolina has struggled to stop any of their first three opponents and rank 19th allowing 23.3 PPG. So, Atlanta has a huge advantage on the offensive side especially with two RB playing at a very high level. On offense Newton has been under pressure in nearly pass attempt. LT is a huge problem right now for the Panthers and Atlanta will look to show pressure – not necessarily bring it – from that side of the LOS. Moreover, Benjamin was shutout last week against Minnesota to a corner that gave up 6 inches and 65 pounds to him. So, this line is based on the public perception that Carolina will in no way lose this game and go to 1-3 on the season. Truth is that Atlanta is a vastly better team than they were last year and Carolina was thoroughly outplayed last week and they are not executing with any amount of confidence. Take Atlanta. |
|||||||
10-02-16 | Raiders +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
25* graded play on Oakland as they take on Baltimore in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 94-47 mark good for 67% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is a solid 40-19 ATS (+19.1 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards; 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Every NFL season we see more teams either underperform or outperform their preseason media expectations. So, we have three teams this season that is undefeated and none of them were on the preseason radar in Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. I had mentioned in articles I published in the preseason a new model I had built that exploits the premise that the NFL is a league of parity; a league that is handicapped by the cap and has done very well in keeping most teams in a competitive bucket. However, I do not see Baltimore as a team that is going to go 12-4 this season, but I do see the Raiders making the playoffs. So, this is not the reason for this play by any measure. Yet, given Baltimore’s great start, it is ramped up the public betting on them and has now given us a SIM graded play that has added value from the inflated line. Raiders have had at least 123 rushing yards in each game. Baltimore has had a max of 84 rushing yards and has immense difficulty moving the ball on the ground. It has been Baltimore’s defense that has stepped up and has given the offense short field scoring opportunities. Sooner or later, this will end and Flacco will be forced to win the game with his arm and I think today is one of those games. |
|||||||
10-02-16 | Colts v. Jaguars +2.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
10* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on Indianapolis in AFC South action set to start at 9:30 AM ET in London, England. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Jacksonville will win this game. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 57-26 over the last 10 seasons good for 68.7% winners and made 28.4 units/unit wagered. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANAPOLIS) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Indy is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992 and they are a poor 35-58 ATS (-28.8 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. Jacksonville is 61-23 ATS (+35.7 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points since 1992. Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Jaguars are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC South. Jaguars are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. AFC. Fundamental Discussion Points Luck is having some trouble finding healthy receivers, however, and T.Y. Hilton (knee) did not practice on Wednesday while Donte Moncrief (shoulder) could miss another month. The Colts steadily are getting healthier on the other side of the ball and surrendered 22 points in the Week 3 win after giving up a total of 73 in their first two contests. Colts LB Trent Cole was placed on injured reserve with a back injury. Indianapolis CB Darius Butler (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday and is week-to-week. Also factor in the Jaguars will be more comfortable playing in London than any other team in the NFL. Take Jacksonville Jaguars with the points. |
|||||||
10-01-16 | Louisville v. Clemson +1.5 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
5 50* graded play on Clemson as they take on Louisville in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game. Unless the line does move to +3 and a minimum money line of +140, the combination wager consisting of a 40* play using the line and a 10* play using the money line is not validated. If it does move to that level, then by all means place the combination wager. I do think that the line is more likely to go to 2 ½ then back down to pick-em given the recent public betting flows that have developed over the last three days. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-9 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites (LOUISVILLE) excellent rushing team gaining >=230 RY/G against a team with an excellent rushing defense allowing |
|||||||
10-01-16 | Oklahoma -3.5 v. TCU | Top | 52-46 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
25* graded play on Oklahoma as they take on TCU in BIG-12 the action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by more than 6 points. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 47-15 ATS mark good for 75% winners since 2010. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TCU) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TCU is just 25-63 ATS (-44.3 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Sooners are a stout 123-64 ATS (+52.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Fundamental Discussion Points We are going down to Forth Worth and going with Boomer and the Sooners in this Big 12 Matchup. These two teams traditionally have played close games, but we feel this is a statement game for Oklahoma as Houston and Ohio State have kept their big dreams at bay, but now they are back at home in the Big 12 where Bob Stoops has pretty much owned the conference. TCU lost a lot of offensive weapons coming into the season and have performed well this year so far. We think Oklahoma who comes into this game averaging 36 points per game will move the ball against the Horned Frog Defense and the defense will step up its game now that they are back in conference play. The Big 12 Championship is still in play for OU and we look for the Sooners to come in off a week of rest and be well prepared for this game. Baker Mayfield comes into this game with 7 touch down passes against 2 interceptions and look for this emotional leader to have a big day against the TCU defense. Today it is Boomer Sooner and take Oklahoma and lay the 3 and a hook. |
|||||||
10-01-16 | Texas +2.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 31-49 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
25* graded play on Texas as they take on Oklahoma State in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will win this game by at least 3 points. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-3 ATS mark good for 90% winners since 2010. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA ST) solid team outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games. Here is a second system that has gone 38-10 ATS for 79% winners since 2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TEXAS) solid offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Texas is a solid 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards; OK State is just 37-94 ATS (-66.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points. Fundamental Discussion Points Texas runs the ball and then they run it again and again. They rank 7th in the nation averaging 52 rushing plays per game and rank 20th gaining 238 rushing yards per game. They are not a 1-dimensional team though and use the passing plays in vertical routes that are in man coverage and without deep safety help. Texas ranks 18th in pass completion percentage and 34th averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt. As you can already see, I do not believe that the Oklahoma State corners can get the job done in man coverage against very quick Texas wide-outs. Moreover, the OK State defensive front will get worn down over the course of the game and that makes play action an even greater scoring asset for Texas. |
|||||||
10-01-16 | Baylor v. Iowa State +17.5 | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 3 h 32 m | Show |
25* graded play on Iowa State as they take on Baylor in BIG-12 action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that IST will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. If you do have a money line for this game play a 3* amount in addition to the 25* play using the line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-5 ATS mark using the first-half line for 83% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 6 to 11.5 vs. the first half line (BAYLOR) with a good defense allowing 315 or less total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games. Fundamental Discussion Points Each season for the past 6, I have had a huge dog of 17 points or more not only cover, but also win the game. I am not suggesting this is that situation, but I do want to point out that fact so that when we release these huge dogs that you look to add the money line part of the play. I am seeing Money Lines in the +600 level and some even higher. IST has played a tougher schedule than Baylor, who has only played a solid competitor in OK State last week. Baylor has given up more than 200 rushing yards in their last two games. The more IST established the ground attack the greater their chances for the ATS win and the monumental upset too. |
|||||||
10-01-16 | Georgia State v. Appalachian State -19 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 32 m | Show |
25* graded play on Appalachian State as they take on Georgia State in NCAA action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that AS will win this game by at least 24 points. Technical Discussion Points This is rare, but there are no supporting technical considerations. This does NOT in any way shape or form reduce the value of this play. The methodology is based first and foremost on the grading produced by the SIM Algorithms. The Technical data serve only to reinforce the play and to provide some specific details into the scope of the game. Fundamental Discussion Points Next up we are going to Boone, NC and using the Mountaineers of Appalachian State over the Panthers of Georgia State. The last 2 years Appalachian State has won by a combined score of 81-3 and we see no difference here. Georgia State comes in winless but had a close call in Madison earlier this year. The Mountaineers come in with a balanced offense averaging 211 yards on the ground and 172 in the air. Appalachian State had 2 rough road games against Tennessee and Miami Florida and now are coming way down in class. The Mountaineers have been a money maker at home in these type of games and look for them to get the easy win in their first conference game. Take Appalachian State and lay the 19. |
|||||||
10-01-16 | Florida v. Vanderbilt +12 | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
25* graded play on Vanderbilt as they take on Florida in SEC action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Vanderbilt will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a shot to win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points This is rare, but there are no supporting technical considerations. This does NOT in any way shape or form reduce the value of this play. The methodology is based first and foremost on the grading produced by the SIM Algorithms. The Technical data serve only to reinforce the play and to provide some specific details into the scope of the game. Fundamental Discussion Points We are going to Nashville and taking the points with Vanderbilt against the Florida Gators. Florida had a nightmare second half in Knoxville last Saturday and we think the hangover will continue this week in a return to the volunteer state. Vanderbilt comes in with a 2-2 record has a pretty balanced offense and should be able to hang around against a Florida team who has a real good defense but is nothing special on offense. The Gator defense is stingy on the ground only allowing 76 yards per game and the pass defense statistically is good but the second half last week was exploited for over 300 yards. Very few if any weeks are easy on the SEC road and we look for a hard fought game at home similar to Florida's close win in the swamp last year and for the commodores to keep this one close again. Take Vanderbilt and grab the points. |
|||||||
09-30-16 | Toledo +3.5 v. BYU | Top | 53-55 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
25* graded play on Toledo as they take on BYU in NCAAF action set to start at 10:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Toledo will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot to win this game. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-8 ATS mark good for 79% winners since 2010. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toledo is a solid 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they commit 1 less turnover than their opponents over the last 3 seasons. BYU is a money burning 26-85 ATS (-67.5 Units) when they allow 28 or more points. Fundamental Discussion Points Toledo is on a serious and sustainable winning run. They are 3-0 SUATS and covered the three games by a whopping 36 points. This is certainly a step up in competition for Toledo, but one that I strongly believe they can defeat. The Toledo defense is playing extremely well and has been dominating the LOS with their size and LB quickness filling holes and shooting gaps. This is what the BYU OL has struggled with through four games. So, this is the critical matchup and obviously one that I strongly believe Toledo will dominate. |
|||||||
09-29-16 | Dolphins +7.5 v. Bengals | Top | 7-22 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
25* play on Miami as they take on Cincinnati in Thursday night football action set to start at 8:30 pm ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by less than 4 points and has an outside shot to pull the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-11 over the last 5 seasons good for 75% winners and made 20.9 units/unit wagered. Play on road teams (MIAMI) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (over 7.3 PYA), after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers since 1992. Lewis is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against AFC East division opponents as the coach of Cincinnati and he is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. as their coach. Bengals are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games in Week 4. Bengals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games. Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cincinnati. Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Fundamental Discussion Points Ryan Tannehill leads the Dolphins on the ground with 54 yards rushing. He continues to click with trusted target Jarvis Landry (AFC-leading 314 yards receiving) and fellow wideout DeVante Parker. Cincinnati Pro Bowl TE Tyler Eifert (ankle) is not expected to make his season debut on Thursday, ESPN reported, citing a source. Bengals CB Dre Kirkpatrick (hamstring) has been held out of both practices this week, leaving his status for Thursday's game in question. Miami DE Cameron Wake recorded three sacks versus Dalton in the last meeting, with the final one resulting in a safety in overtime of a 22-20 win. Take the Miami Dolphins. |
|||||||
09-29-16 | Connecticut +30 v. Houston | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
25* graded play on UCONN as they take on Houston in NCAAF action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UCONN will lose this game by fewer than 22 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting 31-9 ATS for 78% winners since 2010. Play against home favorites (HOUSTON) allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Huston is an imperfect 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. Fundamental Discussion Points UCONN has the passing game to stay in this game. UCONN is not an elite passing team, but they do average 233 passing yards per game that rank 65th in the nation. The Houston passing defense has allowed 236 passing yards per game , which ranks 68th best in the nation. They are excellent at stopping the run and rank 2nd in the nation in that category. Further, UCONN connects on 67% of their pass attempts. They use quick slants, and hooks, which is a strong anecdote to ward off an aggressive defensive front. |
|||||||
09-26-16 | Falcons v. Saints UNDER 54 | Top | 45-32 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
25* graded play on the UNDER in the Falcons-Saints game, action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that this game will go UNDER the total. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 80-40 over the last 5 seasons good for 66.7% winners and made 36 units/unit wagered. Play Under - Any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (ATLANTA) - versus division opponents. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Atlanta is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) when they rush for 75 to 100 yards over the last 3 seasons; 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons; 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons. Quinn is 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) in all games as the coach of Atlanta. Under is 5-0-1 in Falcons last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Under is 9-1-1 in Falcons last 11 vs. NFC South. Under is 13-2-1 in Falcons last 16 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 6-1-1 in Falcons last 8 games on fieldturf. Under is 5-1-1 in Falcons last 7 road games. Under is 13-3 in Falcons last 16 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 4-1-1 in Falcons last 6 games following a straight up win. Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings. Fundamental Discussion Points This line already reflects far and away too many points being scored. Julio Jones is listed as probable in this game. These are divisional opponents, which doesn't make for a good Over play. They had great offenses and awful defenses last year as well, but in their last meeting the total was 37 points. Take the UNDER. |
|||||||
09-25-16 | Bears +6.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Chicago bears as they take on the Dallas Cowboys in NFL Sunday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Chicago will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a shot they will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 66-34 mark good for 67% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) that is a bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Bears are a solid 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points. Dallas is a miserable 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Cutler’s drama is certainly much better suited for the couch in front of his TV where no teammates can see the toxicity he brings to any given situation. Hoyer will be a breath of fresh air for the entire team. He is 8-4 ATS as a career road dog and brings veteran leadership to a team sorely in need of stability. Dallas rookie Elliott has underperformed through the first two weeks and he will not break out in this game either having to go against one of the best defensive fronts in football. The Bears defensive grades have not been good, but are nowhere close to reflecting the overall talent of that unit. With Cutler out, I think you’ll see that defense play with renewed heart and will make it difficult for Prescott to move the chains and sustain drives. I have to admit, that this play appears to be a reach on paper given the recent two weeks of results. However, we have seen countless games where a contrarian approach proves correct and this one is backed first by the SIM Algorithm grading. |
|||||||
09-25-16 | Steelers -3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
25* graded play on Pittsburgh as they take on Philadelphia in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will win this game by more than 6 points. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Pittsburgh is a solid 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they gain 8 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 91-21 ATS (+67.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points. Philadelphia is a miserable 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) when they allow 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Both teams come out of the gates at 2-0 the Eagles beating the browns 29-10 and the Bears on Monday night 29-14. The Steelers come in beating the Redskins 38-16 and the Cincinnati Bengals 24-16. Carson Wentz looks like the real deal and the Philadelphia Eagles Defense has been outstanding early this season. This is the week we will get a feel for how much the defense has improved as they face the first real prolific offense. This will also put Wentz in position to make plays to move the chains and not just manage the game focused on field position. We feel this is a low number due to the first couple of weeks results and look to take the Steelers as the go to 3-0 on the season and 3-0 against the number. Although the defense has played well, the Eagles have several starters with injuries that may prevent them playing the entire game. I don’t see them having the depth to contain Antonio and Wheaten has the speed and quickness to overwhelm any man-coverage. |
|||||||
09-25-16 | Vikings +7 v. Panthers | Top | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
25* graded play on Minnesota as they take on Carolina in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will lose by less than four points and has a good chance at pulling off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 93-47 since 1983 good for 66.4% winners and made a big 41.3 units/unit wagered. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons; 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons; 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. Zimmer is 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) in all games as the coach of Minnesota. Vikings are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September. Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Vikings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Vikings are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Vikings are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Vikings are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win. Panthers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 3. Fundamental Discussion Points Quarterback Sam Bradford was excellent in his Vikings debut, completing 22-of-31 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 17-14 win over Green Bay. Bradford can lead this offense even without Peterson, who was only gaining 1.6 yards per carry. Carolina committed four turnovers last week and aren't living up to expectations so far this year. In a 2014 victory over Carolina, the Vikings kept Newton under control. He completed 18 of 35 passes for 194 yards, holding a 65.7 quarterback rating.Through 2 games the Vikings' defense ranks 5th in both opponents yards/play and opponents yards/rush. Minnesota WR Stefon Diggs’ 285 receiving yards are the second-most through two games in Vikings history, trailing only Gene Washington’s 324 in 1969. Take Minnesota Vikings. |
|||||||
09-25-16 | Cardinals v. Bills +4.5 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 3 h 22 m | Show |
25* graded play on Buffalo as they take on Arizona in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. The current money line is +175, which provides a significant financial opportunity. Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons. Arizona is also just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) off a home blowout win by 21 points or more; 2-13 against the money line (-17.5 Units) off a home blowout win by 21 points or more. Buffalo is a solid 15-5 against the money line (+10.0 Units) in home games when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt. Fundamental Discussion Points Rex Ryan’s defensive mind always presents preparations for any opponent. His use of cover-0 schemes with seemingly a multitude of pre-snap looks creates read problems for even the best QBs. I do strongly believe that the Buffalo defense will be a significant factor in a Bills win today. |
|||||||
09-24-16 | Southern Miss -12.5 v. UTEP | Top | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
25* graded play on Southern Mississippi as they take on UTEP in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SMU will win this game by 16 or more points. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 83-37 ATS mark good for 69% winners since 2010. Play against home underdogs (UTEP) with a struggling scoring defense allowing 35 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. Here is a second system that has gone 45-17 ATS for 73% winners since 1992. Play on a road team (SOUTHERN MISS) allowing 200 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games with an experienced QB facing an opponent with inexperienced QB. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SM is a solid 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 net passing yards/attempt; UTEP is a miserable money burning 8-45 ATS (-41.5 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards. Fundamental Discussion Points Southern Miss comes into this game with a 2-1 record off a tough loss at home against Troy. The Golden Eagles come into this game averaging 43 points a game versus 19 for UTEP. The Eagles own all the statistical angles in this game bringing the Better Rushing offense by 88 yards per game, Passing offense by 99 yards per game. Statistically are better on the defense side of the ball allowing only 97 yards on the ground versus 243 for the miners and allow 50 plus less passing yards per game. Basically saying Southern Miss comes off a 9-5 season returning 7 Starters on offense that averaged 40 points per game last year and most of the leading tacklers return. Last year they beat this same UTEP team at home by 21 putting up over 500 yards of Offense and holding the miners to 13 points and 298 yards of total offense. Southern Miss has a big road win already this year over Kentucky out of the SEC and we look for the Golden Eagles to get off to a big start in this Conference USA Western Division Matchup and use them as our top play today in El Paso. |
|||||||
09-24-16 | LSU -3.5 v. Auburn | Top | 13-18 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
25* graded play on LSU as they take on Auburn in SEC action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that LSU will win this game by 7 or more points. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-6 ATS mark good for 84% winners since 2010. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (AUBURN) with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season and after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LSU is a solid 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt; 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games when they score 22 to 28 points; 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 or less yards/play. Fundamental Discussion Points Both head coaches are loved by their players, but are on the hot seat and another loss by either coach will turn the heat up on them even more. This would represent Auburn’s third home loss of the season and that unfortunately could be the final nail in his coaching coffin. The problem is the lack of consistency with the offense execution and playing against a team as strong as LSU is not the remedy. After starting the game against Texas A&M last week by completing his first six attempts, he bogged down and completed only 12 of his last 21 throws. When he couldn't get the offense moving against the Aggies, Malzahn turned to junior college transfer James Franklin III in the fourth quarter. Franklin had two drives end with Auburn giving up the ball on downs, but he did get his team into the end zone for a late touchdown. Auburn will have no other option than to pound the ball between the tackles and I do not see that turning into any success against an LSU defense that will put 8 and 9 men in the box. Without play action capabilities resulting from an established run game, any of the Auburn QBs will be facing a mountain of pressure. |
|||||||
09-24-16 | Mississippi State v. UMass UNDER 47.5 | Top | 47-35 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
25* graded play ‘UNDER’ Mississippi State – UMASS in NCAA set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that 47 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Technical Discussion PointsMS 24-9 UNDER (+14.1 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points; 19-5 UNDER (+13.5 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 total yards.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. MS is a solid 51-24 UNDER (+24.6 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. Fundamental Discussion Points UMASS defense has played well against strong competition allowing 24 to Florida, 26 to BC, and 13 to FL International. MS is coming off a very tough loss at LSU losing 23-20 and will certainly be focused on the defensive end – as they are EVERY game. They do not possess the high-power offense that is an inherent characteristic of the SEC. They play ball control and field position first and this will be evident throughout this game. Take the ‘UNDER’ |
|||||||
09-24-16 | Nevada v. Purdue OVER 60 | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -102 | 1 h 59 m | Show |
25* graded play ‘OVER’ Purdue – Nevada in NCAA action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 67 points will be scored in this game. Technical Discussion Points I also like Nevada as a 10* Titan play. In addition, add no more than 5* play using Nevada and the ‘over’ in a reverse action wager. So, if you wager $10/star like the majority of our clients, this would be a $50 parlay wager that will pay $200 if both sides hit. If this play wins 1 and loses 1 then the net loss will be $60 and if both should lose then the loss is $120. These are very rare releases, but when we get a dog like this one that projections show can win the game, it opens up the educated and disciplined opportunity to engage in a reverse action risk.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Nevada is a solid 34-19 OVER (+13.1 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt. Fundamental Discussion Points Blough has served up far too many interceptions so far this season and I strongly believe you will see a different playbook designed for him and the offense to maximize his talents and play makers surrounding him in a balanced attack. I expect both teams to have more than 450 yards in offense which translates to 75 points of offense at 12 yards per point execution rate. |
|||||||
09-23-16 | TCU -20.5 v. SMU | Top | 33-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
25* graded play on TCU as they take on SMU in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that TCU will win this game by more than 24 points. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-8 ATS mark good for 80% winners since 1992. Play on road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TCU) after a game where they committed no turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TCU is a solid 39-11 ATS (+26.9 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards; SMU is just 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards; 5-22 ATS (-19.2 Units) when they allow 500 to 550 total yards; 7-25 ATS (-20.5 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 150-200 yards. Patterson is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of TCU. Fundamental Discussion Points TCU does have a big showdown coming up next week against Oklahoma. However, this is a short drive for TCU fans and there could easily be more TCU fans in the stands than the hometown folks. Plus, TCU does have the better coaching and that staff will not allow TCU to have any letdown in this game and will use this game as a full dress rehearsal for Oklahoma. |
|||||||
09-22-16 | Texans v. Patriots +1 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Houston Texans in NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NE will win this game. Yes, this does factor in the all of the injuries and without Gronk playing. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-11 ATS mark good for 75% winners since 1983. Play on home teams (NEW ENGLAND) off a win against a division rival, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is just 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games when they rush for 100 to 125 yards since 1992; Patriots are a remarkable 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) as a home underdog; Here is a money line system that under scores the strength of this play and has produced a 21-4 mark for 84% winners since 1983. Play against any team using the money line (NEW ENGLAND) off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival, when playing on a Thursday. Fundamental Discussion Points NE is by far the best managed team in the NFL and arguably the best ever in the history of the NFL. Whether you like them or hate them, you have to give credit to how the program is run from a team first attitude. So many times when the Patriots looked wrecked by injuries a new star appears on the scene or a 3rd string player steps and does his job, which in turn allows teammates to make even bigger plays. That unity is still there and based on the Algorithm projections I am confident the Patriots will move to 3-0 on the season. |
|||||||
09-22-16 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +10.5 | Top | 26-7 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
25* graded play on Georgia Tech as they take on Clemson in ACC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that GT will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a reasonable shot at pulling off a major upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-3 ATS mark good for 89% winners and has made 21 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play on a home team during the first four weeks of the season (GEORGIA TECH) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games, game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning. This remarkable system is 6-0 ATS over the L5 seasons and 11-1 over the L10 seasons. Supporting the upset bid is a money line system that has gone 29-24 for 55% winners, BUT has made 34.2 units/unit wagered averaging a +201 DOG play since 1992. Play on home underdogs using the money line (GEORGIA TECH) after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is just 8-19 against the money line (-34.5 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt; GT is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points The Wreck, as we all know, has an offense designed from the triple option and involves power running between the tackles augmented by the treat of option plays attacking the perimeter of the defense. Another area that favors GT is penalties. If a DOG is going to trip up a top-10 opponent, then playing without mental mistakes and penalties is critical to attaining that goal. In three games Clemson has been flagged 20 times for 185 yards, while GT has been flagged just 8 times for 93 yards. |
|||||||
09-18-16 | Bucs +7 v. Cardinals | Top | 7-40 | Loss | -113 | 54 h 37 m | Show |
25* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Arizona in NFC action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tampa Bay will keep this game within 4 points and has an outside shot to pull off an upset. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 65-30 over the last 10 seasons good for 68.4% winners and made 32 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tampa Bay is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) after scoring 30 points or more last game since 1992; 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992; is 5-3 straight up against Arizona since 1992. Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 2. Buccaneers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Cardinals are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. Cardinals are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Fundamental Discussion Points Arizona rookie Williams got burned a handful of times by the Patriots and Winston surely will be looking to pick on him if he's still in the starting lineup. Winston was named the NFC's Offensive Player of the Week for his 281-yard, four-TD performance in the opener. He threw those 4 TDs to 4 different receivers. Tyrann Mathieu is easing his way back after undergoing major knee surgery in the winter. He's playing more as a straight center fielder in the secondary; not as the unpredictable blitzer and wild tackler and ball hawk the NFL is used to seeing. This lack of play-making ability against Winston and his offense will prove to be a difference. Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers. |
|||||||
09-18-16 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
25* graded play on New England as they take on Miami in AFC East Divisional matchup set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NE will win this game by at least 11 points. Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons. NE is a solid 45-14 ATS (+29.6 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 net passing yards; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they allow less than 75 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons; 46-9 ATS (+36.1 Units) when they allow 50 to 75 rushing yards; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Bill Belicheck and the coaching staff did an outstanding job last week in the desert preparing Jimmy Garrapolo in his first start for Tom Brady (Deflategate Suspension). We now look for a similar performance at home in a division game against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins were in a physical game last week in Seattle. The offense struggled against the Seahawks and the Defense gave up a late score to end the game. The Patriots get back more offensive weapons for this game mainly Rob Gronkowski and we don't see how the Miami offense will keep up with the Patriots. Take New England and lay the 6 1\2. |
|||||||
09-17-16 | USC +9 v. Stanford | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
25* graded play on Southern Cal as they take on the action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot to win the game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-10 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 1992. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (USC) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses and is a team that had a winning record last season. Fundamental Discussion Points Coming back with the USC Trojans getting 9 1\2 from the Stanford Cardinal, as we said last week the Trojans were embarrassed in Week 1 against Alabama and then easily covered the 16 last week against Utah State, holding the Aggies to their lowest total in a number of years. Stanford beat USC twice last year winning by 10 during the season and 19 in the Conference Championship game. Stanford lost several Offensive Lineman to graduation and struggled at times to move the ball against Kansas State but have 2 weeks to prepare for this game and probably have the best player on the field in Christian McCaffrey and bring an improved Defense. USC does have playmakers and should have learned something playing against the Alabama Defense. Look for the Trojan Offense to score enough points to keep this game close similar to the Trojans last trip up the coast in 2014. Take USC and the points. Ryan’s 25* NCAA ‘Upset Alert’ Titan |
|||||||
09-17-16 | Texas A&M v. Auburn -165 | Top | 29-16 | Loss | -165 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
25* graded play on Auburn as they take on Texas A&M in SEC Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 52-18 ATS mark good for 74% winners since 1992. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (AUBURN) - after a win by 35 or more points against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. A&M is a money burning 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) in road games when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt; 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in road games after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game; 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after gaining 6.75 or more and allowing Ryan’s 25* SEC ‘Upset Alert’ Titan; 14-2 ATS situation |
|||||||
09-17-16 | UL-Monroe v. Georgia Southern -25.5 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 5 m | Show |
35* graded play on Georgia Southern as they take on UL-Monroe in Sun Belt Conference action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that GS will win this game by 28 or more points. Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LM is just 8-45 ATS (-41.5 Units) in road games when they score 14 or less points; 10-38 ATS (-31.8 Units) when they gain less than 4 total yards per play; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games when they gain 3.5 to 4 total yards per play; GS is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they allow 8 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Georgia Southern has been a model of consistency and one of the more physical teams in the Sunbelt Conference. They typically control the line of scrimmage and wear down their opponents. Last year Ga Southern went to Monroe and put up 51 points and won by 20. Moreover, they return all starters on the defensive front and this will create a mountain of issues for LM to just move the chains. UL Monroe comes off a 2-9 season and only returns 3 starters from last years’ weak defense. We look for the GS offense to put up significant numbers but the defense to clamp down and keep the Warhawk offense to a couple of scores, if that, and easily cover this spread. |
|||||||
09-17-16 | New Mexico +6.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 28-37 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
25* graded play on University of New Mexico as they take on Rutgers University in NCAA action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UNM will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a solid shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-12 since 1992 good for 75.5% winners and made 23.8 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed a comp pct of 58% or worse, with 9 or more defensive starters returning. Another interesting system supports this play going 22-2 ATS: Play on any college football road team off a SU double-digit non-conference road favorite loss. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Rutgers is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992 and they are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games after a win by 35 or more points since 1992. Davie is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of New Mexico. Lobos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss. Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Scarlet Knights are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Scarlet Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Fundamental Discussion Points While still limited in his overall effectiveness, quarterback Chris Laviano was able to make some positive plays in the passing game against Howard. The redshirt junior, who could be playing for his job against New Mexico, only managed to connect with 50 percent of his passes for 137 yards. Giovanni Rescigno and Tylin Oden each saw time at quarterback for Rutgers in the second half against Howard, but neither attempted a pass. The Lobos' leading rusher Teriyon Gipson will miss the game while in the concussion protocol. New Mexico has several other capable runners including Tyrone Owens, and quarterback Austin Apodaca's ability to run and pass can provide a tough test for any defense. Take New Mexico Lobos. |
|||||||
09-15-16 | Jets v. Bills +1 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
25* graded play on Buffalo as they take on the NY Jets in AFC East action set to start at 6:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will win this game. Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Jets are a miserable 2-9 against the money line (-8.4 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; Buffalo is a stout 17-8 against the money line (+11.3 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt and are 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt Fundamental Discussion Points Both teams start the season off with losses and it already a[ears that the Patriots – even if Brady did not play one game – would easily win the Division. However, this is just Week 2 and getting to 0.500 may prove to be just what Buffalo needs in order to contend for a wild card berth. Buffalo significantly underperformed it’s DVOA (defense adjusted value over average) in Week 1 and teams that have missed the average by two standard deviations or more from their mean have a very strong tendency to outperform their mean in the following week. This same concept also applies to Buffalo’s offense so we have a powerful combination of a team, in needs of a win at home, having played horrid football in the previous week. Buffalo will get much better use of their ground attack with McCoy and give Tyrod a chance to use play action pass to open up the middle of the field and gain that extra second to execute plays. TE Charles Clay had an excellent game in Week 1 and I expect him to be a key ingredient to this win tonight. |
|||||||
09-11-16 | Chargers +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 93 h 9 m | Show |
25* graded play on San Diego as they take on Kansas City in AFC West action set to start at 1:00 PM ET Sunday. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that San Diego will lose this game by less than 4 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 61-30 over the last 10 seasons good for 67% winners and made 28 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs or pick (SAN DIEGO) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Diego is 60-33 ATS (+23.7 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers since 1992 and they are 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. McCoy is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a road underdog as the coach of San Diego. Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 1. Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Chargers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games in September. Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Fundamental Discussion Points The opening week of the NFL regular season is about gauging public perception and taking advantage of what might well be an inflated spread. I think this game falls into the category. The Chiefs are widely perceived as a team that has a great chance to get back to the playoffs for a second straight year. The Chargers are widely considered to be the likely last-place team in the AFC West and one of the weakest entries in the league. But in the opening week of the season, one of my favorite maneuvers is to zero in on divisional road dogs that were below .500 the prior season, particularly if they’re facing an opponent that was a playoff team. The rationale here is that the favorite will be priced a little too high based on that public perception and that creates value on the underdog. Fact is, if you check out the results of Week One games that have fit this scenario, taking the points has been extremely profitable. |
|||||||
09-11-16 | Bears +6 v. Texans | Top | 14-23 | Loss | -112 | 21 h 14 m | Show |
25* graded play on Chicago as they take on Houston in Week 1 NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Chicago will lose this game by fewer than five points and has a great shot at getting the upset win too. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Chicago is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons; Fox is 27-10 ATS (+16.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in all games he has coached Fundamental Discussion Points Chicago’s biggest asset and a vastly under rated group is their defensive front seven. 2016 additions Danny Trevathan, Jerrell Freeman, Akiem Hicks, Leonard Floyd, and Jonathan Bullard were infused with Eddie Goldman and Pernell McPhee from last year to complete a very strong group that is perhaps one of the top-3 in the NFL. Freeman was the top graded LB against the run last season and now they add Travathan, who also ranked in the top-10 last season. Pushing the pocket from the interior shouldn’t be a problem with Hicks, who managed 18 pressures (seven knockdowns) a season ago, and Jonathan Bullard lined up at end. The latter’s skill-set appears well-suited to the five-technique position. This is the big key for this matchup and I do strongly believe that the Bears defensive front will eliminate Houston’s ground attack and subsequent paly action pass plays, whose success is dependent on an established ground game. Houston is one of the most run dominant teams, but with Osweiler under center, Chicago will look to force him to move to the chains with his arm and decision making, which was largely inconsistent at best in 2015. Take the Bears. |
|||||||
09-11-16 | Packers v. Jaguars +4.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
25* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on the Green Bay Packers in Week 1 NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. JAX is a solid 61-22 ATS (+36.8 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points. Further, JAX is 21-10 against the money line (+12.8 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 1 to 1.5 yards/play. Fundamental Discussion Points JAX is the most improved team in the NFL based on our grading and I also like taking the ‘over’ in Season WINS. This team has the potential to make the playoffs or at least be in playoff contention for the majority of the season. They are also in a division that is wide open with no dominant team in its’ mix. After acquiring up to five new defensive starters in free agency and the draft this offseason, both established and young talent on the defense will augment an improved offense — one that rose from the lowest-graded unit in 2014 to 16th in 2016. Bortles improved last season and is set to take his game to a higher level benefitting from the best WR duo in the league in Hurns and Robinson. The Packers are obviously a very good elite team. However, their LB and defensive front 7 are not even in the top half of the league. Bortles will get the run established and then can use play action where he will have plenty of time to scan the field and make solid decisions. Jax wins this one. |
|||||||
09-10-16 | California v. San Diego State -7 | Top | 40-45 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
25* graded play on San Diego State as they take on California in Western action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SDST will win this game by more than 9 points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cal is 36-96 ATS (-69.6 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 13-52 ATS (-44.2 Units) when they allow 9 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 10-27 ATS (-19.7 Units) when they allow 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt since 1992; 9-28 ATS (-21.8 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards since 1992; 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. SDST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Golden Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Golden Bears are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games on grass. Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Golden Bears are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Golden Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Golden Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Aztecs are 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Aztecs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Aztecs are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Aztecs are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win. Fundamental Discussion Points Defensively, the Golden Bears allowed 248 yards on the ground against Hawaii and will need an improved effort to slow down Pumphrey, the nation’s active leader in rushing yards (4,370), all-purpose yards (5,284) and 100-yard rushing games (22). Running back Khalfani Muhammad ran for 96 yards on 10 carries in the opener but could have trouble finding holes against an Aztecs defense that ranks sixth nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (106.2) since the start of last season. The home team has won all seven meetings. San Diego State has gone a school-record 13 games without throwing an interception. Take San Diego State Aztecs. |
|||||||
09-10-16 | Virginia Tech v. Tennessee -11.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
25* graded play on Tennessee as they take on Virginia Tech in NCAAF action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tennessee will win this game by at least 14 points. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-6 ATS mark good for 82% winners since 2010. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TENNESSEE) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tennessee is a solid 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt ; 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games when they allow 300 to 350 total yards Fundamental Discussion Points Virginia Tech is the public favorite this week with 62% against No. 17 ranked Tennessee; I am going with Tennessee. Though they underperformed in their opening game against Appalachian State, there is definitely reason to believe that they will rebound. In their first game they struggled with their offensive line lacking physicality and QB Dobbs underperforming, which I predict will both greatly improve this week.
It is hard to make a compelling statistical argument based on Tennessee’s lackluster performance in Week One. However, their defense performed well, holding their opponent to just 292 yards and only 13 points. Also, Tennessee’s offense only committed two turnovers in their season opener; Virginia Tech committed 4 turnovers in their season opener. In any sport, turnovers cost games, and this could be a potential difference maker for Tennessee. Look for number 17 Tennessee to come out physical this week to take down the public favorite, Virginia Tech. |
|||||||
09-10-16 | Connecticut +4 v. Navy | Top | 24-28 | Push | 0 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
25* graded play on UConn as they take on Navy in AAC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UConn will win this game. Make a 21* play using the spread and a 4* using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-8 over the last 5 seasons good for 80% winners and made 23.2 units/unit wagered. Play against Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NAVY) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games. Another proven system supports this play posting a 59-24 since 1992 71.1% winners and made 32.6 units/unit wagered. Play ON underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CONNECTICUT) - with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Midshipmen are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Fundamental Discussion Points Navy's Tago Smith is out for the season ( Knee ). Quarterback Bryant Shirreffs was a one-man show for the Huskies in the opener, passing for 162 yards and rushing for 95 more on 20 carries. Ron Johnson (two touchdowns) and Arkeel Newsome (one) each carried the ball 15 times in the opener, combining for 105 yards. The Huskies were among the nation's stingiest defenses last season. College football and upsets of the public persona go hand in hand to make you more money when betting. Take Connecticut Huskies. |
|||||||
09-10-16 | Wake Forest +7 v. Duke | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
25* graded play on Wake Forest as they take on Duke in ACC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Wake Forest will win this game. Make a 21* play using the spread and a 4* using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Wake Forest is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) when their defense forces 3 turnovers since 1992. Duke is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) when they commit 3 turnovers since 1992. Wake Forest is 8-3 straight up against Duke at home since 1992. Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Road team is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings head to head. Fundamental Discussion Points A stout defensive effort made Hinton's early touchdown stand up as the Demon Deacons won their opener for the second year in a row. WF faced a real division 1 team in Tulane as opposed to Duke facing a barely division 1 team in NCCU to pad their stats. Walford has averaged 292 yards with five touchdowns in two career meetings with Duke. College football and upsets of the public persona go hand in hand to make you more money when betting. Duke is known for their basketball, not football...so take Wake Forest Demon Deacons. |
|||||||
09-10-16 | Utah State v. USC -16 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
25* graded play on Southern Cal as they take on Utah State in NCAA action set to start at 2:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will win this game by 21 or more points. Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Utah State is a money losing 4-26 ATS (-24.6 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards; USC is a stout 47-19 ATS (+26.1 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards. Fundamental Discussion Points Clay Helton comes back to the Coliseum after a big opening day shellacking on National TV. The Trojans Offense returned 10 starters from a team that averaged 34 points a game in 2015 and after getting shut down by the Bama D last week will look to turn it on against a Utah State team that had an easy going against a division 1A program. Utah State had to replace a big portion of its' defense only returning 3 starters from last years team. This gives us tremendous line value in this game and look for the Trojans to come out with a purpose this week and win this one easy. FIGHT ON. |
|||||||
09-05-16 | Ole Miss v. Florida State -6 | Top | 34-45 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
50* graded play on FSU as they take on Mississippi in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by at least 9 points. FSU returns all 11 offensive starters including the QB obviously. Mississippi returns 10 starters with 5 on offense and 5 on defense. This is a monumental advantage for FSU, especially with the chemistry they now have on the OL for both pass blocking and run blocking. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-5 ATS mark good for 85% winners since 1992. Play against any team (OLE MISS) in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80% winning record) playing a team that had a winning record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Mississippi is just 26-71 ATS (-52.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points. FSU is a solid 128-70 ATS (+51.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points. Fundamental Discussion Points Jimbo Fisher and the Florida State Seminoles come into the 2016 season and many predict to be in the playoff hunt for a national title, the offense returns intact from last years team averaging 32 points per game but most likely will start the young Quarterback in this game. The defense lost some key personnel but this roster is loaded with talent all over and also brings in the nations top recruiting class. The FSU run game returns Dalvin Cook who many feel is the best running back in the country. Ole Miss comes into this game with the best Quarterback on the field in Chad Kelly, but will be without his top playmaker Laquan Treadwell who took his talents to the NFL. Hugh Freeze has done a great job at Ole Miss going to 4 straight bowl games and the only SEC team with Alabama's number. Ole Miss lost some key playmakers on defense and all everything tackle and main run stuffer Robert Nkemdiche. This should allow Florida State to control the ground game and the clock, keeping Chad Kelly and the Ole Miss offense frustrated. We look for Florida State to get off to a good start on their National Title Hopes today and will take the Seminoles where they are typically very strong playing at a neutral site, which should still feel like home for the Seminoles. Take FSU. |
|||||||
09-04-16 | Notre Dame v. Texas +3.5 | Top | 47-50 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
25* graded play on Texas as they take on Notre Dame in NCAA action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making this play a combination wager using a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the Money Line. Current ML are in the +150 range. Should the line movement decrease to below +140 then simply play a 25* amount using the line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 58-24 ATS for 71% winners since 1992. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ND is a money burning 18-69 ATS (-57.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points; Texas is a solid 38-10 ATS (+27.0 Units) when they rush for 6 or more yards per attempt. Fundamental Discussion Points The Longhorns look like an improved team after closing the 2015 campaign with a win at Baylor and bringing in another top recruiting class. “The attitude of the team right now – offense, defense, special teams – is something we didn't have last year, in my opinion,” Texas defensive coordinator Vance Bedford told reporters. “Guys are focused, ready to go. They're ready to prove that last year was a fluke.” Swoopes got the start last season at Notre Dame and went 7-of-22 for 93 yards as the Longhorns were outgained 527-163. |
|||||||
09-03-16 | BYU -2 v. Arizona | Top | 18-16 | Push | 0 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
25* graded play on BYU as they take on Arizona in non-conference action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that BYU will win this game by at least 4 points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BYU is 53-29 ATS (+21.1 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Arizona is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. Rodriguez is 56-80 ATS (-32.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday in all games he has coached since 1992. Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Wildcats are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games on grass. Wildcats are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in September. Cougars are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass. Fundamental Discussion Points The Cougars will display a variety of pro-style sets under new offensive coordinator Ty Detmer, who threw for more than 15,000 yards in his BYU career. Hill started last year's season opener against Nebraska before suffering a season-ending injury that opened the door for Mangum to throw for 3,377 yards and 23 touchdowns. The Cougars should have a much better running game led by Jamaal Williams, who sat out last season after withdrawing from school and returns 930 yards shy of breaking the school rushing record. Where they'll need players to step up is the receiving corps, where only one of the top four pass catchers return from last season and that's Nick Kurtz, who caught 39 passes for 578 yards and three touchdowns. Like the Cougars, the Wildcats will also be thin on experience at wide receiver compared to a year ago, as last season's leading receiver, Cayleb Jones, left early for the NFL and second-leading receiver Johnny Jackson used up his eligibility. Freddie Tagaloa is expected to anchor an offensive line still reeling from the sudden death last month of Zach Hemmila, who started six games at left guard last season. Last season 'Zona's defense allowed 46.8% 3rd down conversions and 92% red zone scoring while BYU only allowed 38.4% 3rd down conversions and 75% red zone scoring. |
|||||||
09-03-16 | Clemson v. Auburn +9 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
25* graded play on Auburn as they take on Clemson in NCAA action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Auburn will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at a major upset win. Given this favorable projection, I like making these combination wagers using a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. I am seeing lines north of +275, so this represents a tremendous investment opportunity. Over the course of the season, these combination wagers will add a significant amount to the bottom line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-8 mark good for 80% ATS winners since 2005. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AUBURN) and is a team that had a winning record last season, playing in a non-conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Fundamental Discussion Points While Clemson is obviously the clear favorite for the public at 67% (as of Aug. 30th) and ranked at number two in the AP Preseason Pool, I have decided to go with Auburn. Clemson undoubtedly had an incredible year last year, but also lost nine players due to the NFL draft (compared to Auburn’s three). With seven of those draftees being defensive players, Clemson only has four returning defensive starters. Only one starter remains in Clemson’s secondary, so look for Auburn QB Sean White to attack the secondary in the season opener. Sean White has emerged as the Auburn starter in the wake of a 3 way QB battle over the summer; he brings experience and knowledge of the offense to the field, which is very important in the opening weeks. |
|||||||
09-03-16 | North Carolina v. Georgia OVER 57 | Top | 24-33 | Push | 0 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
25* graded play on the OVER in UNC-Georgia action set to start at 5:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that this game will go over 59 points scored. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UNC is 28-9 OVER (+18.1 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992. Over is 20-6 in Bulldogs last 26 games in September. Over is 5-1 in Tar Heels last 6 games overall. Fundamental Discussion Points Trubisky completed 40-of-47 passes in 2015 and has thrown 11 touchdowns while spelling Williams the past two seasons. Hood looks to build on an outstanding sophomore season in which he rushed for 17 scores and averaged 6.7 yards per carry en route to rushing for 1,463 yards. The Tar Heels had issues at times on defense last season in allowing 24.5 points per game. UNC WR Ryan Switzer holds the ACC record for most punts returned for a touchdown (seven). Chubb was cleared Monday for the opener; he has rushed for 2,294 yards and 21 touchdowns in 19 career games. Take the OVER. |
|||||||
09-03-16 | Kent State v. Penn State -23 | Top | 13-33 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Kent State in NCAA action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will win this game by 20 or more points. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-4 ATS mark good for 87% winners since 2006. Play against any team in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses and is now facing an opponent in the first month of the season that was a bowl team from prior season and who lost their last 3 games. The need for PSU to get out of the gate well is only magnified by how they finished last season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. KSU is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when they allow 42 to 48 points; 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games when they gain 4 or less net passing yards/attempt; 6-23 ATS (-19.3 Units) in road games when they gain 5 or less net passing yards/attempt; PSU is a stout 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) when they gain 550 or more total yards. Fundamental Discussion Points KSU finished dead last in D_1 offensive scoring last season. PSU returns just 5 defensive starters, but the additions are vastly superior to those players replaced by graduation. They have the perfect offensive opponent and the offense will shred the Flash defense. Not to mention that PSU is back to fully strength with 85 scholarship players. |
|||||||
09-01-16 | South Carolina v. Vanderbilt -4 | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
25* graded play on Vanderbilt as they take on South Carolina in SEC Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Vanderbilt will win this game by at least 7 points. Fundamental Discussion Points Vanderbilt has high hopes for a successful campaign in the elite SEC Conference, but the public is giving them no respect at all. Consensus betting as of this morning showed only 33% support for the Vanderbilt. What is really revealing is that despite the lack of love, the line has moved up from an opening line of -3 to -4. This is somewhat rare and reflects the smart money (big bettors) coming in on Vanderbilt in size that more than offsets the public’s $100 bets. The Commodores’ defense took a big jump last year when Mason took over as coordinator, and the unit returns enough key players to expect a repeat performance. Sophomore quarterback Kyle Shurmur has won the job after starting five of the final six games last season and throwing for 503 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions. The return of receiver C.J. Duncan after missing last season due to injury gives the Commodores a solid receiving corps to complement running back Ralph Webb (1,152 rushing yards, 5 TDs last season). I certainly believe that SC will have a very tough time running the ball. South Carolina RB David Williams is the team’s top returning rusher (299 yards in 2015) at his position but is behind redshirt freshman A.J. Turner on the depth chart. |
|||||||
02-07-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +6 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 176 h 17 m | Show |
50* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50 set to start at 6:30 PM ET, Sunday, February 7, 2016. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Denver will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 38* play using the line and a 12* play using the money line. As many of you know, I have advised using the alternate lines when playing dogs so increase the total ROI of not just the play, but also for the entire season. The Super Bowl presents an even greater amount of these lines. I like adding making a triple combination wager using a 34* play using the line, a 9* play using the money line, and then a 7* play using the adjusted line Denver -3 ½ at + 280. Also, intriguing is adding a 5* amount Denver 7 ½ that yields +440. Betting public is pushing the Carolina band wagon during week 1 of wagering. Lines opened at Carolina -4 and now most establishments have a line of -6. There has been talk of the ‘smart’ money looking to buy back their -4 Carolina bets at -6 to play the middle, but 5 is just not a good number. Only 2% of games played this season ended with a 5 point differential. So, I am expecting this line to continue higher and may even reach 7 points during this week. This is why I am releasing this Super Bowl play early so that you can wait and take advantage of the line movement. This is not because I think, we will need the extra 1 2/ point or so, just to win. It is rather that, if there is an opportunity to get an even more favorable line, then why not. In terms of prop bets, I like making 3* plays on the following opportunities. Play over 19 ½ Denver first downs; Over 5 converted Denver third downs; Over 2 ½ Denver sacks. First player to score a TD play a 1* amount on Vernon Davis at 40:1 and D. Thomas at 7:1. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 21-6 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 1983. Play against any team vs the money line (CAROLINA) average rushing team gaining between 3.5 to 4.5 YPR facing a good rushing defense allowing |
|||||||
01-24-16 | Cardinals +142 v. Panthers | Top | 15-49 | Loss | -100 | 83 h 17 m | Show |
50* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Championship game set to start at 6:40 PM ET, January 24, 2016. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 34* play using the line and a 16* play using the money line. This ratio is mathematically calculated to maximize the risk/reward profile generated by the algorithm probability results. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 71-35 ATS mark good for 67% winners since 2005. Play on road underdogs or pick (ARIZONA) after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Here is a second supporting system that has gone 22-5 using the money line for 82% winners since 2005. Play against all teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (CAROLINA) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is a solid 8-1 against the money line (+7.3 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons; 14-3 against the money line (+9.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 7-1 against the money line (+6.2 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons. Arizona is also a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they rush for 100 to 125 yards over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons. The NFC Championship marks the sixth time over the last 20 years that the top two teams in points per game differential met in the Conference Championship or Super Bowl (ELIAS):Top 2 Teams in PPG Diff - Met in Conf Champ or Super Bowl Last 20 Years 1st 2nd Round2015 Panthers Cardinals NFC Champ2014 Patriots |
|||||||
01-17-16 | Seahawks +2 v. Panthers | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
50* graded play on the Seattle Seahawks as they take on the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Divisional Round of the 2016 NFL playoffs set to start at 1:05 PM ET, Sunday January 17. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. I always require a +145 reading from the money line to validate these combination wagers. It is very unlikely that we will see a surge of volume type wagers on Carolina that could push this line back to ‘3’. So, simply play it as a straight 35* wager using the line only. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Seattle is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. There are other game situations, but I want the focus of this report squarely on the Seattle defense. It is a fact that Carolina ranks first in scoring offense in the NFL and 2nd in rushing yards per game. However, the Seattle defense ranks first or second in the majority of defensive categories in both rush and pass stats. They rank first in scoring defense, rushing yards per game allowed, and 2nd in passing yards allowed. Seattle LB Wagner and Wright are playing at a very high level as are DBs Chancellor, Thomas, Sherman, and Shead. Sherman may bot even be their best corner right now and that certainly is an amazing situation. I do see Cam extending plays, but Seattle has the ability to minimize separation and still defend well. Then there is lure of Pete Carroll. Whether you like him or not he is arguably the Belichick of the West and he always uses an extremely creative game plan that focuses on taking away the strengths of the opponent. I’m not saying that Carolina and Newton will be eliminated by the defense, but they will struggle to move the chains, especially on third down situations where Seattle can bring their full maximum strength in either hidden zone blitz schemes or nickel coverages in either a sky zone spy or under-man cover 2 scheme. Take Seattle. |
|||||||
01-16-16 | Chiefs v. Patriots -4 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
35* graded play on the New England Patriots as they host the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs set to start at 4:30 PM ET January 16, 2016. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by more than 7 points. Over this past season there has been a significant growth in alternative line betting. Many of you are quite familiar with my combination wager that uses line and money line for DOG releases. In this case you need access to the adjusted lines, which would show Patriots -13 1/2 +240 and KC +13 1/2 -320. The other adjusted line will show NE +3 1/2 -340 and KC -3 1/2 at + 260. With my work, you will ALWAYS be on the dog payouts. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the -13 1/2 Patriots +240 line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-15 ATS mark good for 70% winners since 2010. Play on favorites (NEW ENGLAND) that are excellent offensive teams gaining >=370 YPG and are now facing an average offensive team gaining between 295 to 335 YPG, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when they rush for 3.5 to 4 yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons. Looking at some power trends notes that Patriots are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games facing excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games facing good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game over the last three seasons. Patriots are also coming off a very weak performance in their season finale. However, they are resilient posting a 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game since 1992. Belichick also has a great track record noting a 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite; 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after gaining 4 or less yards/play in their previous game. Now, let’s take a look at some money line situations. If you want to play this game as a straight money line play, I have no problem with that. I would suggest making the exposure the same as a 35* line play. So, if the Patriots are -250, then you would wager a 14* play. Should you lose, then the loss would be 35* amount (14*2.5 odds). So, KC is a money losing 3-22 against the money line (-22.0 Units) in road games facing good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season since 1992; Patriots are a near-perfect 15-1 against the money line (+14.3 Units) vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons. KC ranks 4th best in the NFL gaining 4.6 YPR, 6th gaining 129 rushing yards per game, and 3rd with 1.2 rushing TD’s per game. However, I strongly believe that the Patriots defense will minimize this ground attack and force KC to try and move the chains through the air. KC ranks 30th in the NFL gaining just 202 passing yards per game. Belichick has always been a master at taking away the strength of the opponent and this is the matchup he will be fully focused on. Patriots with rest and Brady under center will be just too much fort KC to contain for 60 minutes. Take the Patriots. |
|||||||
01-11-16 | Alabama v. Clemson +6.5 | Top | 45-40 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
50* graded play on the Clemson Tigers as they take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in the NCAA Nationals Championship game set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at winning the Championship. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 40* play using the line and a 10* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-29 mark good for 53% winners, BUT has made 39 units/unit wagered averaging a +211 DOG play since 2010. Play on underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (CLEMSON) in a game involving two good rushing teams with both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is a near-perfect 7-1 against the money line (+6.4 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 season; 26-9 against the money line (+22.7 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play. I have studied the matchups in this game just like any other release I have done in my 21 years. This one is clear and straight forward. I do not believe that Alabama will be able to contain the ultimate two-dimensional offensive threat in Watson. I think he will play one of his best games ever tonight and lead the Tigers to the Championship. Take Clemson. |
|||||||
01-09-16 | Chiefs v. Texans +3 | Top | 30-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Houston Texans as they take on the KC Chiefs in the AFC Divisional playoff set to start at 4:35 PM ET. If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Texans. As a result, in any given season better than 80% of graded plays are DOGS in the money line sports of the NHL and MLB. I have proven time and time again, that it is imperative to identify DOGS in these sports that win consistently over the course of a season. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. However, the ML must be at +145 for the combination wager to be validated. If the ML is below +145, then simply wager a 35* play using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 42-11 mark using the money line for 79% winners. Play against road teams using the money line (KANSAS CITY) good passing team gaining between 6.7 and 7.3 PY/Attempt and is now facing an average passing defense allowing 5.9 to 6.7 PY/Attempt and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is a solid 8-1 against the money line (+8.0 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons. Take the Texans. |
|||||||
01-03-16 | Jets v. Bills +3 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 2 h 55 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they host the NY jets in a very important game with direct consequences for the NY Jets playoff aspirations. This game is set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Buffalo Bills will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 263-104 record for 71% winners and has made 100.6 units/unit wagered since 1983. Play against road teams vs. the money line (NY JETS) off an upset win as a home underdog, after the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Buffalo is a solid 15-5 against the money line (+10.0 Units) in home games when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt; 52-29 against the money line (+20.8 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points. Jets are a money losing 9-20 against the money line (-17.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. Here is an ATS system that has gone 27-6 ATS for 82% winners since 2005. Play against favorites (NY JETS) off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. Take the Buffalo Bills. |
|||||||
01-03-16 | Jaguars +6 v. Texans | Top | 6-30 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 44 m | Show |
35* graded play on JAX as they take on Houston in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-21 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is just 2-11 against the money line (-14.9 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 4-11 against the money line (-15.8 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Take Jacksonville and expect the upset win. |
|||||||
01-02-16 | Kansas State +13 v. Arkansas | Top | 23-45 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
35* graded play on K-State as they take on Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl set to start at 3:30 PM ET, January 2, 2016. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that K-State will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a decent shot at an upset win. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 31* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. There has been a significant growth in ‘adjusted lines’ this season. These lines are adjust by 7 ½ points and then include a comparable ‘vig’ for each line. I have found that using the DOG lines with these 35* releases has added significantly to the overall ROI. So, you may see a K-State +4 ½ line at about +230 vig. If you have access to that, then substitute the money line portion of the combination wager with the adjusted line. So, that adjusted line combo wager would be a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the adjusted line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 65-29 ATS mark good for 69% winners since 1992. Play against any team (ARKANSAS) average team (+/- 0.6 YPP) against a struggling team (outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP), after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. K-State is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing |
|||||||
01-02-16 | Penn State +6 v. Georgia | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -102 | 1 h 59 m | Show |
35* graded play on Penn State as they take on Georgia in the Gator Bowl set to start at Noon ET, January 2, 2016. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-14 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU HC Franklin is 4-0 against the money line (+9.1 Units) after allowing 37 points or more last game in all games he has coached. The Georgia coaching staff is in complete disarray with the firing of HC Richt after 14 seasons and 147 wins and the fall out from that decision. So, this Georgia team lacks leadership and I do belevie it will be a factor in this game. PSU struggled big on offense this season, but has a possible first round pick in QB Hackenberg. The PSU defense is one of the most under rated units in the nation. They will get pressure on any Georgia QB in this game. Georgia has had massive trouble at QB this season and is most evident when pressured. Penn State is the play. |
|||||||
01-01-16 | Iowa v. Stanford -6 | Top | 16-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Stanford Cardinal as they take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Rose Bowl set to start at 5:00 PM ET New Years Day. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Stanford will win this game by 10 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Iowa has had a great season and definitely exceeded even the most optimistic goals. However, Stanford is one of the best teams in the nation and will have significant matchup advantages on both sides of the ball. Iowa is just 18-59 ATS (-46.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 8-35 ATS (-30.5 Units) when they allow 9 or more net passing yards/attempt; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they allow 9.5 to 10 net passing yards/attempt; Stanford is a strong 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons; 34-11 ATS (+21.9 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards; 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards over the last 2 seasons; 21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards; 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play. Further, Stanford played one of the most difficult schedules in the nation while Iowa played a relatively soft Big Ten schedule avoiding Michigan and Ohio State. Stanford had the 12th toughest SOS. Oklahoma had the toughest while Iowa ranks 45th. Take Stanford to roll big. |
|||||||
01-01-16 | Florida +4 v. Michigan | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -109 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
50* graded play on the Florida Gators as they take on the Michigan Wolverines in the Citrus Bowl set to start at 1:00 PM ET New Years Day. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Florida will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 39* play using the line and a 11* play using the money line. There has been an advent of the ‘adjusted lines’ this football season. These lines adjust the spread by 7 ½ points in both directions and matches the corresponding ‘vig’ to those lines. You will see a line most likely showing Florida at – 3 ½ and +230 for the adjusted spread. On the other side you will see Florida +10 ½ and -200ish. ALWAYS go with the DOG vig with my plays. In the majority of our wins, the cover is by double digits, which also brig the adjust spread wager as a winner too. So, a suggestion is to wager a 35* play on the line, a 9* play using the money line, and then 6* play on the adjusted -3 ½ Florida spread. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Florida is a solid 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games when they allow 100 to 150 rushing yards. Further technical setups show that Florida is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons. Michigan has been a money losing 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. Take Florida. |
|||||||
12-31-15 | Michigan State v. Alabama -10 | Top | 0-38 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
35* graded play on Alabama as they take on Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET. This game will be at Jerry’s House or by the proper name Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, TX. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Alabama will win this game by more than 16 points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these FAVS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the adjusted line. For this play consider making a 28* play on the line and a 7* play using the – 17 ½ +220ish adjusted line. If you don’t have access to the adjusted lines, then simply make a 35* play using the line. Alabama’s defense will be the difference in this game. They have been one of the best defensive units in the past decade and don’t see MSU being able to get enough out of their ground attack to compete for the entire game. Alabama defense ranks first in the nation in rushing defense and have not allowed any opponent to gain more than 91 yards (Auburn) over the past five games. Plus, their ground attack has peaked and is just unstoppable – even by a solid MSU defensive unit. The ‘Bama ground attack has gained more than 195 yards rushing in five straight games. The 195 stat was against Charleston Southern where they only rushed the ball 35 times in a 56-6 mercy rule game. Factor out that game and the ground attack has gained at least 235 yards. Moreover, they have turned the ball over just 3 times in the past five games and have not had more than 1 turnover in any of the last seven games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. MSU is just 18-43 ATS (-29.3 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points; ‘Bama is 102-51 ATS (+45.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. Take Alabama. |
|||||||
12-31-15 | Houston v. Florida State -7.5 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
35* graded play on Florida State as they take on Houston in the Chick-Fil-a Bowl set to start at Noon on New Year’s Eve. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 10 or more points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these favorites combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the adjusted line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the adjusted line that will show FSU at -14 ½ +230ish at most books. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-14 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 2005. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a double digit road win. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is just 6-22 ATS (-18.2 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 total yards per play; 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) when they allow 35 to 41. FSU 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons. Houston has had a great season, but their SOS has been vastly weaker than that faced by FSU. I also don’t see FSU taking Houston lightly either as head coach Fisher and his staff are great motivators and will have their units fully prepared. Take FSU. |
|||||||
12-30-15 | Memphis v. Auburn -3.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
35* graded play on Auburn as they take on Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl set to start at Noon ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game by at least 7 points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. This season has seen an explosive growth in the adjusted lines offered at nearly every book in Vegas. This give us the opportunity to gain greater returns using the dog lines provided. So, we will always go in the direction of a more difficult cover. So, for example, you will see Auburn at +3 1/2 and -10 ½ with vigs of -200 and +230 respectively. We will always go with the dog vig as it offers a much better long-term ROI than trying to benefit from the favored laying wood vig. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the adjusted spread. If one is not available then simply wager a 35* play using the line. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Memphis 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) after scoring 42 points or more last game. Memphis HC Dickey is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) after allowing 14 points or less last game in all games he has coached. Memphis last played a month ago on November 28 and destroyed SMU 63-0 and easily covered as 19 ½ point favorites. Auburn plays a vastly more difficult schedule than Memphis and is a seasoned experienced team. They are coming off a disappointing season where early on they were ranked as high as No. 4 in the pools. So, I believe the team will look to play very hard and send off the Seniors with a big win in their last game. Take Auburn. |
|||||||
12-29-15 | Air Force v. California -7 | Top | 36-55 | Win | 104 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
35* graded play on California as they take on Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl set to start at 2:00 PM ET, December 29, 2015. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cal will win this game by more than 10 points. Cal started the season with 17 returning starts with 8 on offense and 9 on defense. They also have had their QB return and these units are both very experienced and have great team chemistry. The featured player in this game though will be Cal’s Goff, who is playing his final collegiate game. He is projected by many experts to be the first QB taken in the upcoming April NFL draft and for very good reasons. This was another outstanding season for Goff, who broke his own school records for passing yards (4,252) and TD passes (37), and closed the regular season with a school-record 542 yards and five scores in a 48-46 win over Arizona State. He became only the ninth Pac-12 quarterback to throw for 4,000 or more yards in a season. Many of the records he broke at Cal were previously held by Aaron Rodgers. He still has one year of eligibility left, but the NFL is the right move. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. AF is just 35-80 ATS (-53.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when they allow 9 to 9.5 net passing yards/attempt; 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 10-37 ATS (-30.7 Units) when they allow 500 or more total yards; Cal is a solid 37-12 ATS (+23.8 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt. Further, we note that AF is just 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) facing excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game.CAL ranks fifth in pass completion percentage and 6th gaining 359 passing yards per game. AF just does not have the defensive depth to contain this high powered and very fast offense. Take Cal. |
|||||||
12-28-15 | Bengals +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Cincinnati Bengals as they take on the Denver Broncos in AFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Bengals will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, for the ROI and risk-reward profile to be validated, you must get at least +145 on the money line. I am seeing +160 and even +167 currently, which is higher than you would normally see with a +3/+3 ½ line. This reflects the publics’ excessive backing of the Broncos, which also supports this play on the Bengals. I monitor the betting flows at seven major books and whenever you get a consensus above 70%, it produces a red flag reflecting irrational exuberance for that team. This fact only serves to reinforce the algorithm. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-17 mark good for 73% winners and has made 26.2 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play on any team using the money line (CINCINNATI) off a road win, when playing on Monday night. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Bengals are a solid 10-2 against the money line (+9.8 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards this season. Denver has been a weak 11-29 ATS (-20.9 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt; Lewis is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half as the coach of Cincinnati. |
|||||||
12-27-15 | Packers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 8-38 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Green Bay Packers as they take on the Arizona Cardinals in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Green Bay will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-6 ATS for 81% winners since 1983. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) average passing team gaining between 5.9 to 6.7 PYA and is now facing an average passing defense allowing between 5.9 to 6.7 PYA after 8+ games, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Green Bay is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt over the last 2 seasons. Further, we see that Green Bay is a solid 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) facing good rushing defenses allowing |
|||||||
12-27-15 | Panthers v. Falcons +6.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Carolina Panthers in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM EWT. I also have a 25* play on the ‘OVER’ in this game. So, play that for a 25* amount and also add a 5* play using the Falcons on the Money Line and the ‘over’. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Atlanta will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a solid shot at upsetting the Panthers and ruining their perfect season. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-3 ATS mark good for 90% winners since 2005. Play on any team (ATLANTA) after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Falcons are a near-perfect 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. |
|||||||
12-26-15 | Indiana v. Duke +2.5 | Top | 41-44 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
35* graded play on Duke as they take on Indiana in the Pinstripe Bowl being played at Yankee Stadium and set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Duke will win the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 28* play using the line anda 7* play using the money line. However, you must get a minimum of +140 on the money line to validate the risk/reward profile for this projection. If it is less than +140, simply make a 35* wager using the line. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Indiana is just 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 15-35 ATS (-23.5 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards; 8-28 ATS (-22.8 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 rushing yards per attempt; 5-23 ATS (-20.3 Units) when they allow 500 to 550 total yards; 10-48 ATS (-42.8 Units) when they allow 500 or more total yards; Duke is a strong 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play. Take Duke. |
|||||||
12-24-15 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 46 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
35* graded play ‘OVER’ Chargers/Raiders in Christmas Eve NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that More than 50 points will be scored in this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. Since this is a total play, you may be able to add am adjusted total wager to the line. I am seeing an adjusted total of 54 +205 for the adjusted total. There is also an adjust line lower at 40, but you need to lay -250 to get that line. In my opinion and based on 22 years experience NEVER us a high vig line or ML. It is far better to take advantage of my releases and then play for the bigger return using the ‘dog’ lines to your advantage. For this play consider making a 30* play using the total and then add a 5* play using the adjust total line of 54 +205. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-13 mark good for 72% winners since 2005. Play ‘OVER’ with road teams against the total (SAN DIEGO) and is a good passing team gaining between 6.7 and 7.3 PYA and is now facing an average passing team gaining between 5.9 and 6.7 PYA, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Chargers are 11-3 OVER (+7.7 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) when they gain 6 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons. Take the ‘OVER’ |
|||||||
12-24-15 | Middle Tennessee State v. Western Michigan -4.5 | Top | 31-45 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
35* graded play on Western Michigan as they take on Middle Tennessee State in the Bahamas Bowl set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that WMU will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 65-27 mark good for 71% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIDDLE TENN ST) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals and is now fcacing an opponent off a road win. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. MTST is just 31-61 ATS (-36.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards; WMU is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. In summary, I don’t see the MTST secondary being able to hold up against the constant pressure of the WMU balanced attack. WMU has a strong ground game and this will open up play action in man coverage where the WMU receivers are physically superior. Further, the WMU OL will wear down a smaller sized MTST defensive front. Take Western Michigan. |
|||||||
12-23-15 | Georgia Southern +7 v. Bowling Green | Top | 58-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
35* graded play on Georgia Southern as they take on Bowling Green in the GoDaddy.com Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that GS will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. 10-4 against the money line (+6.8 Units) when they gain 150 or less net passing yards over the last 2 seasons; BG is just 5-17 against the money line (-16.0 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards; 2-9 against the money line (-11.9 Units) when facing an excellent rushing teams averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry. Further, BG has been a money burning 3-9 against the money line (-22.0 Units) after a game where they forced 5 or more turnovers since 1992. Fritz is 8-1 against the money line (+7.0 Units) facing good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. as the coach of GSU. |
|||||||
12-22-15 | Akron +7 v. Utah State | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
35* graded play on Akron as they take on Utah State on the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Akron will lose this game by 6 or fewer points and has a great shot at winning the bowl game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 69-32 ATS mark good for 68.3% winners since 1992. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AKRON) with an excellent rushing defens allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Utah State is just 1-8 against the money line (-7.9 Units) when they rush for 100 to 150 yards over the last 3 seasons. Further, Utah State has been a weak 14-37 against the money line (-26.4 Units) in non-conference games. Take Akron. |
|||||||
12-21-15 | Lions +2.5 v. Saints | Top | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they take on the New Orleans Saints in NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Detroit will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, for the ROI to be validated for the added money risk, a line of +145 must be available. If it is not, then simply wager a 35* play using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-5 ATS mark good for 85% winners since 2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DETROIT) off a road loss, with a losing record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Saints are just 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in home games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. Saints have arguably the worst defense in the league. Detroit has an average offense, BUT ranks best in the NFL with 69% red zone scoring. Taske the Lions. |
|||||||
12-20-15 | Cardinals -4 v. Eagles | Top | 40-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
50* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game by 7 or more points. There has been an increase of adjusted lines this season in the NFL and NCAA football cards. In past years, we would see adjusted lines for playoff games and some of the top bowl games, but never on a weekly basis. So, if you can get an adjusted line then consider making a 40* play using the line and then add a 10* play using the -10 ½ line for a greater ROI on this wager. Your adjusted line may not be – 10 ½ and could be lined at -11 1/2 and will give you at least +225 return. This is by far the best team the Eagles have faced this season. They rank 2nd in scoring offense and best in the NFL gaining 418 YPG. Moreover, the Eagles defense has been lit up over the past 5 weeks and for the season rank 27th allowing 386 YPG. ARZ passing game among the best in the NFL ranking third gaining 299 PYPG and first averaging 8.5 yards per pass. Eagles defense ranks 24th allowing 259 passing yards. I just do not see how the Eagles will hold up against this offense. They key stat is Arizona’s best ranking in yards per pass, which shows they can successfully stretch a defense vertically. This is by far the greatest weakness in the Eagles defensive secondary. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they gain 400 to 450 total yards. Eagles are a weak 3-20 ATS (-19.0 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons. Take the Arizona Cardinals. |
|||||||
12-20-15 | Packers v. Raiders +4 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Green Bay packers in NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. This combination of wagers serves to maximize the ROI of this investment on the Raiders given the probabilities the lines present and also what the SIM projects to occur. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-9 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 1983. Play against road favorites (GREEN BAY) that are average defensive teams allowing between 18 to 23 PPG and now facing a below average defensive team allowing between 23 and 27 PPG, after allowing 9 points or less last game. Here is a second system that has gone 67-36 ATS for 65% winners since 2005. Play against road favorites (GREEN BAY) off a home blowout win by 21 points or more. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is a solid 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt; Del Rio is 11-4 against the money line (+12.5 Units) after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game in all games he has coached. Take the Raiders. |
|||||||
12-19-15 | BYU +2.5 v. Utah | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
35* graded play on BYU as they take on Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that BYU will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. However, make certain that you get at least +145 on the ML as it that price validates the added risk with the combination wager and maximizes the ROI. If the ML is not at +145 and higher, then simply wager a 35* play using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 75-36 ATS mark good for 68% winners since 1992. Paly on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BYU) and is an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now an average defensive team allowing between 21 and 28 PPG, after a win by 21 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Mendenhall is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of BYU. Needless to say Utah has a strong ground attack, but BYU will contain them to less than 200 rushing yards. BYU will then put Utah into third and long passing downs. The more of these situations the greater the probability that BYU wins the game. Also, BYU has a huge edge in the passing game and I see Utah struggling to consistently defend the middle of the field. Take BYU. |
|||||||
12-19-15 | Arizona -7.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 45-37 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
35* graded play on Arizona as they take on New Mexico in the New Mexico Bowl set to start at 2:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-18 ATS mark good for 71.4% winners since 1992. Play against home underdogs (NEW MEXICO) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is a solid 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points; 27-4 ATS (+22.6 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 200 or more yards; NMU is just 14-34 ATS (-23.4 Units) when they allow 35 to 41points in a game; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 total yards per play. Take Arizona. |
|||||||
12-13-15 | Cowboys +6 v. Packers | Top | 7-28 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Green Bay Packers in NFC action set to start at 4: 25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Dallas will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-17 ATS for 72% winners since 1983. Play on road teams (DALLAS) with a poor turnover defense forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Green Bay is a very weak 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. Take Dallas. |
|||||||
12-13-15 | Falcons +8 v. Panthers | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Carolina Panthers in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Falcons will lose this game by fewer than 8 points and have a great sot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-2 ATS mark good for 93% winners since 2005. Play on any team (ATLANTA) after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games and is now facing an opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. I absolutely love this algorithmic defined play. Atlanta actually gains more yards per game on offense than Carolina, but they fail to score points consistently during this losing streak. Falcons rank 5th in yards per game (387), but just 18th in points per play (0.341). Carolina ranks 14th in offense (361) and second in PPP (0.461). Falcons rank 2nd best in the NFL converting 46% of all third down conversions. Take the Falcons. |
|||||||
12-13-15 | Lions v. Rams +3 | Top | 14-21 | Win | 105 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Rams as they take on the Lions in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Rams will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-6 ATS mark good for 80% winners since 1983. Play on home underdogs or pick (ST LOUIS) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP), after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Detroit is just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons. St. Louis is a solid 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) when they allow 50 to 75 rushing yards since 1992. Rams offense has struggled to score points this season ranking 31st in scoring , 31st in points per play, and league worst 32nd in third-down conversions. However, they are facing a vast weak Detroit defense that ranks 28th in scoring defense, 28th in points per play allowed, and 25th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Take the Rams. |
|||||||
12-13-15 | Seahawks v. Ravens +11 | Top | 35-6 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 49 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in AFC action action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Baltimore will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a small probability that they can win the game in a shocking upset. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 31* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-8 mark good for 78% winners since 1983. Play against road favorites (SEATTLE) an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 PPG and is now facing a poor defensive team allowing between 23 and 27 PPG, after allowing 9 points or less last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Seattle is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Fully aware of the QB situation in Baltimore, BUT I do believe in the projections from the SIm and believe that Baltimore will play a fantastic game on both sides of the ball. Plus, the public is all over the Seattle Seahawks, which is a significant positive for us being on the book side. Take Baltimore. |
|||||||
12-10-15 | Vikings v. Cardinals -9 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
35* graded play on Arizona as they take on Minnesota in a critical NFC matchup set to start at 8:25 PM ET and will be televised by the NFL network. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game by 13 or more points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these opportunities combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the adjusted line. This season there has been a surge of offerings featuring the adjusted spreads moving the line 7 ½ points in either direction with a subsequent change in the ‘vig’ For this play consider making a 30* play on Arizona and then add a 5* play using the adjusted line, which I see coming in at 14 ½ +180 or possibly -17 ½ +225. Whatever is put on the board later today at your book is a valid opportunity. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they gain 400 to 450 total yards; 23-4 ATS (+18.6 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 150+ yards; 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 1.5 to 2 yards/play. Based on my SIM generated team grading, the Arizona Cardinals are now the best offensive team in the NFL. As a team, Arizona also ranks best in the passing game and have the best corp of receivers. Minnesota is certainly a solid team, but their biggest weakness is in pass coverage. So, I just do not see Minnesota containing this offense and that Arizona will score often. Take Arizona. |
|||||||
12-06-15 | Eagles v. Patriots -7.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
35* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 11 or more points. Yes, they are banged up, but the Patriots have enough talent to exploit an Eagles defense that has yielded 45 points in two straight games each. The line has dropped to 7 ½ from 10 given the injury news, especially the news that Gronk is out. But, the Eagles may be without their leading tackler on the defensive line, who has 40 solo tackles. He has a knee injury that is swollen and he will not be at 100%, so you can expect the Patriots to exploit that situation. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 60-26 ATS mark good for 70% winners since 1983. Play on any team (NEW ENGLAND) that is a good team outgaining opponents by 0.4 to 1 YPP and is now facing an average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games, after being outgained by opponent by 100 or more total yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Eagles are just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 3 season; Patriots are a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 44-13 ATS (+29.7 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 net passing yards. Patriots are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. Take New England. |
|||||||
12-06-15 | Texans v. Bills -3.5 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 106 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they take on the Houston Texans in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will win this game by at least 6 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is just 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when they commit 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Buffalo is on the ropes and needs a win to continue having faint hopes for the playoffs. Media in Buffalo has begun to attack Rex Ryan and some of the defensive lineman have complained about having to drop into coverage. That’s certainly not good news, but Ryan is a veteran coach, who was loved in Buffalo at the start of the season. So, I do believe the home crowd will be quite supportive and I fully expect a huge effort and easy win based on the SIM algorithm projections. Houston has won four straight games and has the 6th best defense in the league gradings database. Yet, Buffalo has a vastly better offense and with a 100% Sammy Watkins finally contributing to that offense, Houston will not be able to contain the Bills offense today. Take Buffalo. |
|||||||
12-05-15 | North Carolina v. Clemson -4.5 | Top | 37-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
50* graded play on Clemson as they take on North Carolina in the ACC Championship game set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game by at least 7 points. This season has seen a growth in the ’adjusted lines’ at a large number of books. These offer a great opportunity form a combination of line and adjusted lines for a much greater return (ROI). So, I expect a line showing Clemson at 12 ½ +220 or possibly Clemson -14 ½ and +260. Either will work. So, consider making a combination wager using a 40* play on the line and a 10* play using the adjusted line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 64-26 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 2005. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (N CAROLINA) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals and is now facing an opponent off a road win. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UNC is just 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 100-150 yards; Clemson is a solid 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. UNC has demonstrated quick strike plays on offense, but they have not faced a defense as strong as Clemson. UNC ranks 15th in the nation averaging 492 yards per game and 2nd with a 0.599 points-per-play ratio. Clemson, though ranks 7th in the nation allowing just 296 YPG and 22nd with a 0.297 points per play ratio. Further, they are tops in the nation allowing 23.9% third down conversions. Clemson has been great at getting tackles for loss, especially in early down situations and this will be the case again today. Putting UNC into third and long situations plays right into the strength of the Tigers defense. Take Clemson. |
|||||||
12-05-15 | Texas +21 v. Baylor | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Texas Longhorns as they take on the Naylor Bears in Big-12 Conference action set to start at Noon PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play, there is a low chance that Texas pulls of the upset, but I have at least one 20+ DOG that has pulled up the upset in the last 6 seasons. I have yet to have one this season. This DOES NOT mean I due to have one either as you never know when it will happen. For this play consider making a 35* play on the line and then if available, play a 3* amount on the money line. Adjusted spreads have come into vogue this season, if available that is an excellent opportunity. The line would be adjusted down to 13 points with Texas paying out at +220 or so. So, if that is available then make a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using that adjusted line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-11 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 1992. Play against home favorites (BAYLOR) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games and now facing an opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Baylor is just 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) after 3 consecutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers. Further, Texas HC Strong is a solid Strong is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses in all games he has coached. Take the Texas Longhorns. |
|||||||
12-05-15 | Temple +6 v. Houston | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 0 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Temple Owls as they take on Houston for the American Conference Championship set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 27* play using the line and an 8* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 54-22 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 1992. Play on a road team (TEMPLE) after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Temple is a solid money making 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons; 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play. Temple is going for it’s first conference title in 48 seasons. Under HC Rhule, the Owls went 8-16 in their first two season, but with strong Senior leadership this season have posted a 10-2 mark overall and 7-1 in conference play. Houston has an excellent QB in Ward and he has connected to former QB, now WR Demarcus Ayers, who has 89 catches on the season. Yet, the Temple defense is extremely good and play very disciplined gap defense, which is critical in containing the run and pass threat of Ward. The winner of this game gets a possible invite to a New Years Six Bowl, which may be the Peach. I strongly believe it will be Temple. |
|||||||
12-04-15 | Northern Illinois +11.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 5 m | Show |
35* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Bowling Green in the MAC Championship game set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NIU will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a decent shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 31* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Many times, the money line spreads become excessively wide when the line is double digits. In this game, look for a ML price of +400 to construct the combination wager. +375 is an ‘ok’ level, but look for +400 at your books. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a a 31-33 mark for just 48% winners, BUT has made a whopping 60 units/unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a very nice +300 DOG play. Play against neutral field favorites using the money line (BOWLING GREEN) and is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/play, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. NUI is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games off 1 or more consecutive ‘unders’ over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games this season. Take Northern Illinois University. |
|||||||
12-03-15 | Packers v. Lions +3 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Green Bay Packers as they take on the Detroit Lions in NFC North action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Detroit will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. One mandate though is that you get at least +145 on the money line. If not, then simply play a straight 35* play on the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-18 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 1983. Play on any team (DETROIT) after 5 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Detroit is a solid 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games when they gain 350 to 400 total yards; 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) facing struggling passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season. Detroit is coming off their best offensive performance in several seasons against a dysfunctional Eagles squad on Thanksgiving Day. What has gone largely unnoticed is the Lions defense that has a very good run stop and pass rush grade. Where Rogers has struggled this season is when pressure comes up the middle preventing him from stepping up and completing passes, especially routes over the middle of the field. This is an area that Detroit’s pass rush can excel at tonight and one that I believe will be a huge factor in the Lions pulling off the upset. |
|||||||
11-30-15 | Ravens +3.5 v. Browns | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the Cleveland Browns in MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 28* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line as long as you can get +145 or higher. My wagering model mandates that a =145 money line be used so that all risk/reward parameters are validated as sound investment objectives. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-6 ATS mark good for 81% winners since 1983. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) cold team having lost 8 or more out of their last 10 games, in weeks 10 through 13. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Ravens are a solid 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards; 27-7 ATS (+19.3 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 net passing yards/attempt; Browns are just 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they allow 100 to 125 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they rush for less than 75 yards over the last 2 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they rush for 50 to 75 yards over the last 2 seasons. Ravens are starting without Flacco under center for the first time in eight seasons. Yet, the bigger story is the demise of Manziel. After reportedly promising coach Mike Pettine he would act on his best behavior over the bye, Manziel was caught on video reciting profane rap lyrics while holding a bottle of champagne at a club in his native Texas. Citing a breach of trust, Pettine announced Tuesday that the former Heisman Trophy winner would be behind McCown and Davis on the depth chart. By contrast, Flacco had started 137 games including playoffs and now a solid veteran in Matt Schaub will get a start. This will be his first start since Week 17 of the 2013 seasons. This is where I strongly believe the Ravens have a huge advantage in this matchup. The Ravens season has been marred with substantial number of inuries including Forsett last week with a broken forearm. Yet, I absolutely love rookie Javorious Allen and I expect my SIM projection to prove more than correct with him gaining 100+ rushing yards. This will then allow Schaub to utilize play action to complete high percentage throws. Take the Ravens. |
|||||||
11-29-15 | Patriots -2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
35* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on Denver in AFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by six or more points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. This is a slight favorite wager though, so if you have access to the alternate lines then consider making a 27* play using the line and then a 8* play using the alternate line. Now, the alternate line is 7 ½ points more when playing favorites o less for dogs. So, when we play these combination wagers, we are always making our play less of a dog or more of a favorite and getting paid at least +200 for that added risk. If you do not have an alternate line, then simply play it as a 35* play using the line at your best book. Based on my SIM algorithm grading, the Patriots are the best team, by far, in the NFL. Carolina now holds the second spot with Arizona and the Broncos in third and fourth respectively. However, Denver is the only team with a negative grade on offense and an offense that ranks 23rd in the NFL. The Patriots hold the top offensive rank, but only marginally, with Arizona, Atlanta, and the Bengals in close pursuit. The Patriots are excellent in run defense and pass coverage grades. I agree that the Denver offense will be better with Osweiler under center, but this Patriots defense is the worst matchup scenario for the him to face tonight. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a a 29-3 mark using the money line good for 90% winners since 2005. Play on favorites using the money line (NEW ENGLAND) that are excellent passing team gaining >=7.3 PYA and are now facing a good passing defense allowing between 5.3 and 5.9 PYA and after 8+ games of the regular season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons; Denver is a money burning 9-29 ATS (-22.9 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. Take the Patriots. |
|||||||
11-29-15 | Vikings v. Falcons -1.5 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Minnesota Vikings in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game by at least 4 points. I also like the ‘OVER” for a 25* graded play as defined by the algorithm. I would also recommend a parlay not to exceed a 5* amount using the Falcons + ‘over’. Atlanta is the third best offensive team in the NFL based on my SIM grading and are 4th overall in total team grading. Atlanta is trailing the undefeated Panthers and are in the midst of the wild card playoff race. In my opinion, they are by far the best team at 6-4 and are certainly flying under the radar. Matt Ryan is not making flashy headline news, but he has the 5th best QB rating in the NFL trailing only Palmer, Brady, Newton, and Roethlisberger in that order. He is one of two QB in that top-5 list with positive grades for pass and run grades. He is not a fast runner by any means, but has a great feel for the pocket similar to Brady that can extend plays. Vikings certainly have a solid defense, but I fully expect Ryan to make quick decisions and also use Coleman (replacing Freeman) in short passes in the flat. Ball control and moving the chains will the dominant these for the Falcons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-4 mark good for 88% winners using the money line since 2005. Play against underdogs using the money line (MINNESOTA off 3 or more consecutive ‘unders’, an average offensive team scoring between 18 to 23 PPG and is now facing a good offensive team scoring between 23 to 27 PPG. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Vikings are just 1-7 against the money line (-8.0 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards over the last 3 seasons. So, Take the Falcons for a 35* play, the ‘over’ for a 25* play, and a 5* parlay Falcons + ‘OVER’. |
|||||||
11-29-15 | Saints +3 v. Texans | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 2 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Saints as they take on the Texans in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Saints will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 26* play using the line and a 9* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-5 mark good for 84% winners since 2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) off a road loss, with a losing record. Here is a second system that has gone 76-35 ATS for 69% winners since 2005. Play on road teams (NEW ORLEANS) off a road loss, in November games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is a near-imperfect 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Saints offense has several matchup advantages over the Texans defense. Saints defense is weak, but is going up against one of the worst offenses in the NFL based on my SIM gradings. Big day for Brees. |
|||||||
11-28-15 | Notre Dame v. Stanford -3.5 | Top | 36-38 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Stanford Cardinal as they take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in NCAA action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Stanford will win this game by more than 6 points. As many of you know, I did not like seeing Notre Dame in the Top-4 spots in Week1 and Week 2 playoff releases. Not because I dislike the program, but because my data and facts pointed otherwise. Iowa has finally earned their media right to be among the play-off four with a great road win at Lincoln and with the Cornhuskers fully rested off of the BYE. We had Iowa as another 35* ATS winner as well. We also had Boston College in a near upset over Notre Dame, in a game where the Irish had five turnovers. Now, there is no way I see the Irish having 5 turnovers, let alone maybe two turnovers in this game this week. But, what I did see was a highly unfocused team with numerous dropped passes and poor route execution, and not having the focus and will to win despite the seriousness of the game. Stanford has tremendous speed on offense. Notre Dame has yet to play a team with this much elite quickness and speed. With Christian McCaffrey running past defenders and into Heisman Trophy consideration and freshman Bryce Love taking advantage of his limited opportunities to deliver big plays in a flash, the Cardinal have become more difficult to defend than ever. I just do not see the Irish defense holding up against the constant pressure of the Cardinal offensive attack. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cardinal is a stout 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they rush for 250 to 300 yards; 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season; 21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play this season. There have been 17 games where the Cardinal has gained 200-250 rushing yards in a game since 1992. This is rare, but the algorithm shows a very strong probability that it will happen. As shown above they are 13-4 ATS when it does occur. Take Stanford. |
|||||||
11-28-15 | Penn State +10 v. Michigan State | Top | 16-55 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
35* graded play on Penn State as they take on Michigan State in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has an outside shot at a stunning upset. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 32* play using the line and a 3* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-23 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) that is a hot team, having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team winning between 60% to 80% of their games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU is a solid 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games; PSU head coach Franklin is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached. PSU has the elite defensive unit to disrupt the flow of the MSU offense scheme. PSU also has a potential top-10 draft pick in QB Hackenberg, who I fully expect to play his best game yet this season. PSU simply has nothing to lose being bowl eligible and can essentially take chances and play a focused non-pressure type of game. That is the worst foe a team fighting for the top-4 in the CFP rankings to face. Take Penn State. |
|||||||
11-27-15 | Iowa -2.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 6 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Iowa Hawkeyes as they take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers in a major BIG TEN Conference game set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that IOWA will win this game by 4 or more points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play it is a bit different in that you need access to the adjusted lines if possible. The adjusted line is showing Iowa – 7 ½ +220. So, my suggestion is to make a 29* play on the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-12 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 1992. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEBRASKA) in a game involving two good rushing teams gaining between 4.3 to 4.8 YPR after 7+ games, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Iowa is a solid 83-25 ATS (+55.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points; 16-63 ATS (-53.3 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) when both teams score 28 or more points. Take Iowa. |
|||||||
11-26-15 | Panthers v. Cowboys +1.5 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Carolina Panthers in NFC Thanksgiving Day action set to start at 4:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by at least 4 points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. It is a bit different fort this play. If you have access to the NFL adjusted lines, then consider making this a 28* play using the Dallas at pick-em and then adding a 7* amount using Dallas at -7 ½ which is returning +240/250 prices. If no adjusted line is available then simply play Dallas as a 35* play using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Dallas is a solid 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games; 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games. Before getting injured Dallas was 2-0 with Romo under center and now 3-0 after last week’s win. Take Dallas. |
|||||||
11-26-15 | Eagles +2.5 v. Lions | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Philadelphia Eagles as they take on the Detroit Lions in the first game of the Thanksgiving triple header. I also have a 25* play on the ‘UNDER’ so I also like playing this as a 7* Parlay with the Eagles and the ‘under’. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Eagles will win this game. They have played horribly poor in their last several games with the last one being a complete debacle. I released T-Bay as a 10* graded free play on this site and the algorithm did show a solid probability that T-Bay may win the game. Well, they exceeded my expectations by a large margin. Now, I have seen this sort of trend before in my 21-years of handicapping sports. Local Philadelphia media is in a frenzy calling for Chip Kelly’s head and essentially saying the season is lost – despite the fact that they are still in divisional contention in the extremely weak NFC East. Going on the road is the absolute BEST situation for this team as it gets them away from the media vultures. It is a concern that we have seen opposing defensive players stating that they knew what was coming and could defend the Eagle offense well. Yet, these are players, who have a ton of pride and a ton of desire otherwise they would not be playing the NFL. Yes, of course there are the idiots and clowns that are exceptions, but no pro likes to lose as badly as this Eagles team did at home. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-11 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 2005. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Eagles are a solid 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in road games when they allow 15 to 21 points; 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games when they gain 350 to 400 total yards; Detroit is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. Take the Eagles. |
|||||||
11-23-15 | Bills v. Patriots -7 | Top | 13-20 | Push | 0 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
35* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Buffalo Bills in an AFC Divisional matchup set to start at 8:20 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by more than 10 points. Some books offer an alternate line and if you have access to that then consider making this a combination wager using a 30* play on the line and then a 5* play using the alternate line, which would be Patriots -14 1/2 at +220 or slightly higher. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Buffalo is a weak money losing 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) in road games when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt; Patriots are a solid 44-13 ATS (+29.7 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 net passing yards; 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt; 30-11 ATS (+17.9 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards; 39-16 ATS (+21.4 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 to 1 yard/play. Patriots are a solid 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons. Buffalo got a huge road win last wee defeating the Jets 22-17 and were installed as 2 1/2 point dogs. Although a great win, Buffalo, as many teams are in this role, is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. Patriots are off a very emotional 27-26 win over the Giants. However, they are a robust 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons. Patriots have the best overall team grading in my NFL database and by a significant margin. Although having a horrid pass blocking grade, the offense has done extraordinarily well under Brady and an ever changing week-to-week game plan. What has been quite impressive is the quiet emergence of a top-level defensive unit. The Patriots truly excel in pass coverage, especially third down and red zone situations and this will be very difficult for Buffalo to overcome. Moreover, Buffalo has a modest pass rush at best, so the poor Patriots pass blocking grade is a matchup wash. So, with little or no pressure on Brady and a pounding ground game led by Blount (that is my guess anyway, it could be a name we have never heard of yet), the Patriots will cruise to a double digit win. |
|||||||
11-22-15 | Bengals v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in Sunday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that ARZ will win this game by at least six points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 22-4 ATS mark good for 85% winners since 1983. Play on home teams (ARIZONA) off an upset win as a road underdog, in a game involving two top-level teams winning >= 75% of their games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ARZ is perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons; 26-7 ATS (+18.3 Units) when they rush for 125 to 150 yards. Arizona has the third-best overall rating in the NFL based on my database while Cincinnati ranks 6th best. Looking at complete offense rankings, ARZ is the best in the NFL by a modest amount over the Patriots. Again, the Bengals are ranked fifth best offensive team. On defense ARZ ranks 11th best while Cincy is 16th in that category. Breaking it down further and the matchup that clearly shows that ARZ is the better team is in pass coverage. As a unit the ARZ secondary is the third best coverage unit while Cincy ranks a distant 14th. So, we have two elite teams, but Arizona has edges in all of the major matches and playing at home on Sunday Night makes it that much bigger. Arizona has the edge scoring 33.6 PPG to the Bengals 26.1 PPG. ARZ has the edge in points-per-play at 0.52 compared to the Bengals 0.409. Arizona has the edge in average scoring margin at 13 PPG compared tot he Bengals 9.2 PPG. Take Arizona. |
|||||||
11-22-15 | Packers v. Vikings | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Minnesota Vikings as they host the Green Bay Packers in NFC North action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will win this game by at least three points and continue their amazing ascent int eh NFL standings. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-1 record using the money line good for an incredible 96% winners since 2005. Play on home teams using the money line (MINNESOTA) and is a solid defensive team allowing between 14 to 18 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 PPG after 8+ games, after scoring 30 points or more last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they rush for 125 or more yards over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Further, wee see that Minnesota is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. GB overall team ranking is 8th and Minnesota 10th best. Overall offensive grade sees GB ranked 11th and Minnesota 13th best in the NFL. Logically, with Rodgers under center GB ranks fifth in passing grade, but Minnesota has steadily risen to now rank 12th best. In the ground game, Minnesota is 7th best while GB is 12th so no real advantage for either team. The big matchup advantage for the Vikings is with their pass rush that ranks fifth best in the NFL. This defensive front is especially effective at getting pressure up the middle and has always been a problem for Rogers since he has no room to step up and make throws over the middle of the field. That will be the storyline throughout the game. I also like the ability of Minnesota to control the clock with their running game and third down efficiency rates to keep the chains moving and gain a big edge in TOP. Take the Vikings. |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.