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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-22-15 | Rams v. Ravens -3 | Top | 13-16 | Push | 0 | 24 h 23 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they host the St. Louis Rams in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Ravens will win this game by at least four points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-8 mark good for 85% winners using the money line and has made 32 units/unit wagered since 1983. Play against underdogs vs. the money line (ST LOUIS) off an embarrassing loss by 21 points or more as a favorite, with a losing season record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Rams are just  11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in road games when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards; 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons; 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards. HC Fisher has been a money burning 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points as the coach of the Rams. Plus, HC Harbaugh is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. Baltimore has had a very rough season, but they are certainly playing much better in recent weeks. Rams had climbed into playoff contention, but two straight losses has made that questionable. Moreover, the Rams offense has stalled and scored just 31 points in the L2 games. Ravens defense is quite good and rank fourth best in my gradings against the run. Stopping the Rams running game will undoubtedly cause third and long situations for the Rams offense and not something they do well. Take Baltimore. |
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11-21-15 | UCLA +1 v. Utah | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
35* graded play on the UCLA Bruins as they take on Utah in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UCLA well win this game by three or more points.  Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play there is NO opportunity for this type of combination wager since the ML is nowhere close the minimum +145 threshold needed to validate the wager. So, simply play this with the line you get as a 35* wager. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 65-30 ATS mark good for 68.4% winners since 2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UCLA) off 1 or more consecutive 'unders' and is a solid offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Utah is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 9-27 ATS (-20.7 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points. The number 28 comes up frequently in the NCAA matchups and teams that are more capable of exceeding that mark consistently have greater probabilities of covering ATS. In this case, Utah is coming off a horrid double OT loss to Arizona, which could possibly take them out of the PAC-12 Championship game and certainly the Final-4 playoff rankings. They lost RB Booker to a knee injury on top of everything else and I believe it will be extremely difficult for the Utes to recover from the 'hangover' of last Saturday. Take UCLA. |
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11-21-15 | Northwestern +11.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
35* graded play on Northwestern as they take on Wisconsin in Big TEN Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Northwestern will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a moderate shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a  31* play on the line and a 4* play on the massive money line is very attractive. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-18 for 56% winners and has made a whopping 57 units/unit wagered averaging a +325 DOG play since 2010. Play on road underdogs using the money line (NORTHWESTERN) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins and is now facing an opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Northwestern is a solid 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt;18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games when they allow 3.5 to 4 rushing yards per attempt; 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Take Wisconsin. |
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11-21-15 | USC +4 v. Oregon | Top | 28-48 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
35* graded play on USC as they take on Oregon in PAC-12 action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 27* graded play using the line and a 8* graded play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-28 mark using the money line good for 53% winners, but has made a whopping 58 units/unit wagered averaging a +270 DOG play over the last five seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. USC is a solid 17-3 against the money line (+12.5 Units) when they gain 500 to 550 total yards; 35-8 against the money line (+20.3 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards; 28-7 ATS (+20.3 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 total yards per play. Fuerther, we see that USC is near-perfect  10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points/game since 1992. Take the TROJANS. |
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11-21-15 | Michigan v. Penn State +3.5 | Top | 28-16 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
35* graded play on Penn State as they take on Michigan in Big TEN Conference action set to start at Noon PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a great chance to win the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line as long as you can get +145 or higher with the money line. I have seen +155 and higher so this combination wager is validated. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-7 mark good for 79.4% winners using the money line and has made 21.4 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against a road team using the money line (MICHIGAN) and is a solid offensive team gaining between 5.6 to 6.2 YPP and is now facing a solid defense allowing between 4.2 to 4.8 YPP and after 7+ games and after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game. This system is 13-2 making 11.6 units/unit wagered over the last 10 seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Michigan is just 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games; 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored;  1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. PSU is a solid  21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games. I fully realize that PSU is 0-4 after their BYE week under Franklin, but this is a vastly different team with an elite defense that is fully rested. Michigan's last two opponents were unranked and the Wolverines had to fight for their Big Ten lives just to win. Now, they enter a fully rested and highly motivated PSU team play their last home game of the season and it also being Senior Day. I also took a look at the emergence of Michigan receiver Chesson, who had 4 TD catches, 207 yards on 10 catches in their double OT win at Indiana just last week. PSU defense will contain him and play very physically at the LOS. I think you will see a cover-2 variation where the corners will be able to bump him at the LOS knowing they have deep safety help. PSU has been able to stop the run without safety help this season. Take the Lions. |
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11-19-15 | Titans +2.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 13-19 | Loss | -100 | 37 h 49 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Tennessee Titans as they take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that TENN will win this game. We need to see +145 or higher from the money line to validate a combination wager. If that occurs, then consider making a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. I do n't see the '3" line moving, but the 'vig' charged will change and this may be just enough to get the ML up to that +145 level. If the ML stays below the +145 threshold then simply play this TITAN as a 35* wager on the line.  Both teams are struggling, but both teams are still int he hunt in the AFC South. The colts lead the division, but now with Andrew Luck on IR, this is essentially a Division where anything can happen. However, in this matchup Tennessee is the better team on both sides of the ball, especially on defense. Overall team gradings show Tennessee ranked 21st and JAX 28th in the NFL. On offense, TENN ranks 21st and JAX 28th. On defense TENN ranks 11th while JAX is just 30th in the NFL gradings from the database. JAX pass blocking grade is poor and Tennessee has a solid pass rush that I believe will overwhelm the JAX OL throughout this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-23 ATS for 69% ATS winners since 2005. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) off 1 or more consecutive 'unders' and is a struggling team outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TENN is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons; 44-21 ATS (+20.9 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play. Take Tennessee. |
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11-19-15 | East Carolina -14.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 44-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
50* graded play on East Carolina as they take on UCF in American Conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that ECU will win this game by 20 or more points. UCF is winless and they rank in the bottom of the national rankings in all meaningful stat categories. Their defense ranks 116th in scoring defense allowing 38.7 PPG, 117th with a 0.542 points-per-play ratio, 115th allowing 48% third-down conversions, 10th allowing 212 rushing yards per game, and 93rd allowing 257 passing yards per game. Now, ECU is not a blazing offensive powerhouse, but they have massive matchup advantages. They rank 39th converting 43% of all third down situations and rank 33rd gaining 261 passing yards per game. Without wasting more space and your team, the matchup on the other side is equally as favorable for ECU. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 52-24 ATS mark good for 68% winners since 2005. Play on a road team (E CAROLINA) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UCF is just 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points; 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by 1 to 1.5 yards/play. McNeill is a solid McNeill is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game as the coach of ECU. Safe to say that ECU will gain well over 100 rushing yards in this contest. Take ECU Pirates. |
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11-18-15 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois -3 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
35* graded play on Western Michigan as they take on Northern Illinois in MAC Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that WMU will win this game. Monday we had Texans in a huge +400 money line play combined with the 28* line play, and then last night we had a significant dog winner with Ohio University. To validate the combination wager based on the risk/.reward profiles, we need to see +145 on the money line. Currently, I am seeing just +130, so this line would have to move to 3 1/2 and that really is not expected. If it does, then consider playing a 30* amount on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-12 ATS mark good for 75% winners since 1992. Play on a road team (W MICHIGAN) off a home loss by 14 or more points, a team winning between 51% to 60% of their games and is now playing a winning record team. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. WMU is a perfect  6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Take Western Michigan. |
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11-17-15 | Toledo +7 v. Bowling Green | Top | 44-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
35* graded play on Toledo as they take on Bowling Green in NCAA MAC Conference action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Toledo will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at a major road win over BG. Given this favorable projection and in the same manner as my most previous upset alert plays on the Detroit Lions and last night's big SU win with the Texans, I like making this a combination wager. It is comprised of a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-15 mark good for 74% winners using the money line and has made 37 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on a road team vs. the money line (TOLEDO) excellent rushing team averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toledo has the ground attack to gain a sizable edge in TOP and keep BG offense off the field. They rank 14th in the nation averaging 5.3 YPR and 20th gaining 217 rushing yards per game. BG defense ranks 63rd allowing 4.3 YPR and 63rd allowing 170 rushing yards per game. This is the dominant matchup that will lead Toledo to the ATS win and upset. Take Toledo. |
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11-16-15 | Texans +11 v. Bengals | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Houston Texans as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texans will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I like making this a combination wager using a 31* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-4 ATS mark good for 85% winners since 1983. Play on underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) poor rushing team gaining =4.5 YPR after 8+ games, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is a solid 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play. As these technicals feature, I do believe the Houston ground game will be successful tonight and will be a dominant reason Houston will remain very competitive throughout this contest. As I mentioned in Sunday's 'free pick' although Detroit was an 11 point dog, I did like the idea of putting together a combination wager consisting of an 85* play on the line and a 1.5* on the money line. Detroit came through and Houston just might tonight as well. I obviously never know when these huge upsets will occur, but you have to be disciplined and make these types of plays consistently over the course of the season. Brian Hoyer is a solid 11-5 ATS in road games that he has started, so he does have the NFL experience to execute the offense well. Bengals defense is suspect based on run defense and pass coverage grades. So, I do strongly believe that Houston will make this a very closely contested game. Take Houston |
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11-15-15 | Cardinals +2.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 39-32 | Win | 105 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in NFC West Division action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that ARZ will win this game.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-6 mark against the money line for 81% winners since 1983. Play on all teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (SEATTLE) when playing a division opponents, off a road no-cover where the team won as a favorite. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.ARZ is also a solid 7-1 against the money line (+6.5 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 6-1 against the money line (+6.2 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons; 10-2 against the money line (+9.8 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards over the last 3 seasons; Seattle is a money burning  1-5 against the money line (-8.9 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. ARZ is a solid 8-1 against the money line (+8.2 Units) vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  Arizona is simply the better team on both sides of the ball and I expect them to win the game. Marshawn Lynch is listed as questionable with reports stating he has a 50/50 chance of going. His back up Rawls has arguably been better than Lynch and this may be HC Carroll just trying to create some propaganda pre-game. Whoever starts, it does not impact the algorithm grading in the least. Take Arizona. |
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11-15-15 | Patriots -7 v. Giants | Top | 27-26 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
50* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the NY Giants in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Patriots win this game by 14 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-11 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 2010.  Play on favorites (NEW ENGLAND) after beating the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games and is now facing an opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are a solid  9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons;  9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they gain 300 or more net passing yards over the last 2 seasons;  21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt. Giants are just 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) in home games when they rush for 75 to 100 yards; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they allow 400 to 450 total yards over the last 3 seasons; 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they allow 400 or more total yards over the last 3 seasons. Tom Brady has the quickest release after snap at 2.1 seconds in the NFL. This is getting the ball out, minimizing opponent blitz schemes and getting the ball to his receivers in space. Further, Brady, who already has the best throwing motion in the game, worked with legendary baseball pitching coach Tom House this week. Perfection is the goal of Brady and it spills over to his teammates. Patriots also have the second best pass coverage grade in the NFL and that unit will take away any vertical routes that Manning wants to attempt. Simply, the Giants have a horrid pass coverage grade and pass rush grade. There is just no way to expect the Giants defense to contain the Patriots offense today. Take New England. |
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11-15-15 | Vikings v. Raiders -2.5 | Top | 30-14 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they host the Minnesota Vikings in NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. Have to mention the NFL and Roger Goodell finally doing something right, but something that should not even be a second thought. A each venue today, there will be a moment of silence for the horrific terrorist actions in Paris Friday night. I plan on joining that in each game I see today. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game by at least 6 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-9 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 2005. Play on home teams (OAKLAND) off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team scoring between 23 and 27 PPG and are now facing a good defensive team allowing between 14 and 18 PPG. This system has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS over the past three seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.Raiders are a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Vikings are a money burning  10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in road games when they allow 5.5 to 6 total yards per play. Further, we see that Minnesota is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in road games off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less; 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) in road games after a win by 3 or less points. Minnesota is tied with Green Bay for the division lead with a very impressive stretch of wins led by a dominating defense. Minnesota's offense is still a work in progress and grading highly negative ranking 16th in the NFL. Vikings defense ranks fifth overall and second in pass rush. However, the Raiders are one of six teams in the NFL to have overall offense and defense positive grades. Raiders offense ranks fifth best and their defense 11th best. The Vikings surprisingly have a highly negative grade in run blocking and will be facing a Raiders run defense that grades fifth best in the NFL. Oakland is the better team and they are playing at home. Take the Raiders. |
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11-15-15 | Dolphins +6 v. Eagles | Top | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Miami Dolphins as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by four or fewer points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 27* play on the line and a 8* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 73-34 ATS mark good for 68% winners since 2005. Play on road teams (MIAMI) off a road loss in games played in November. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.Miami is a solid 74-31 ATS (+39.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points; 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers. Philadelphia has been as money burning 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game in the second half of the season; Miami is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games off in 2 straight division games. Based on my gradings, Miami has the best pass rush grade in the NFL and will be looking to further confuse QB Bradford with different pre-snap looks. For the Eagles, they simply must establish the run game and I don't see that happening. Eagles offense has climbed the rankings in overall offensive grade, but remain in negative territory. Dolphins have Lamar Miller leading a ground attack that ranks second in the NFL averaging 4.9 YPR. Eagles rank 15th allowing 4.1 YPR. Although Miami has not done well controlling the yempo of games ranking 30th at 46.4% TOP, they are monumentally better than the dead last Eagles, who post a 4.4% TOP. I believe you will see Miami control the tempo with a steady dose of Miller and high percentage pass plays that move the chains to gain a significant edge in TOP. Take the Miami Dolphoins. |
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11-14-15 | Oregon State v. California UNDER 61 | Top | 24-54 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
50* graded play on 'UNDER' the posted total in the PAC-12 matchup between California and Oregon State. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 56 points will be scored int his game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 78-31 'UNDER' mark good for 72% winners since 2005. Play 'under' with any team against the total (CALIFORNIA) in a game involving two poor defensive teams allowing between 28 to 34 PPG after 7+ games, after allowing 37 points or more last game. Â We have reached an overbought condition for both teams as it relates to their scoring offense and defense performance levels. Much like a stock in the marketplace travels very fast in an upward price direction, it becomes more prone to a retracement the more price is extended. Cal is playing for their 6th win and becoming bowl eligible They have two very tough opponents on deck with Stanford on the road and then home season finale against ASU. So, this marks an excellent game to earn that sixth win. They are favored by 20 points and this reflects the superior advantages that CAL enjoys on both sides of the ball. This is not a recommendation on CAL though. It does reflect my belief that CAL will be dedicated to controlling the pace of the game and gaining a significant edge in TOP. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Based on the algorithm, I simply do not see Oregon State scoring more than 17 points. Beavers rank 118th in scoring offense at 16.1 PPG and 99th allowing 34.9 PPG. So, it stands to reason that CAL will look to minimize mistakes and turnovers and look to completely dominate OSU offense. Take the 'UNDER' |
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11-14-15 | Oklahoma +120 v. Baylor | Top | 44-34 | Win | 120 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
35* graded play on Oklahoma as they take on Baylor in a major BIG-12 Conference showdown set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game. The only item I don't like about this game has been the decline in the line to what most books have at Sooners + 2 1/2. However, the wager balances are nearly equal and the decline in line price is fully attributed to some major players making extremely large wagers on the Sooners. I don't mind being on the 'sharp' side of a game especially when there are some major max wagers being placed. Yet, it has served to eliminate the combination wager since the best ML levels I am seeing are +125/130 and we need +145 or higher to validate the risk/reward profile for a combination wager. So, simply play a 35* wager on the Sooners. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 87-43 ATS mark good for 67% winners since 2010. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BAYLOR) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. Here is a second system that has posted a 73-36 ATS mark good for 67% winners since 1992. Play ON all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA) that are an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG against an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG, after a win by 21 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Sooners are solid 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season; Baylor is just 51-105 ATS (-64.5 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. I am very confident Oklahoma will score at least 28 points in this game. Baylor's SOS has been no where close to that of the Sooners. Oklahoma's defense leads the Big 12 in most categories, including rush defense, pass defense, total defense and scoring defense. Oklahoma is certainly one of few teams capable of beating Baylor in a shootout. The Sooners rank third nationally in scoring offense and sixth in total offense and a much stronger SOS than Baylor. Quarterback Baker Mayfield ranks second nationally in passer efficiency and ranks in the top 10 in college football in completion percentage and passing touchdowns per game. The running game, once considered a liability because of an inexperienced offensive line, has pounded out 295.2 yards rushing per game in its last four contests. So, a Baylor defense that has been gashed on several occasions against vastly weaker teams will under immense pressure on every play. Take the Sooners. |
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11-14-15 | Appalachian State v. Idaho +20 | Top | 47-20 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
35* graded play on Idaho as they host Appalachian State in NCAA action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a very high probability that Idaho will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. If a money line is available, which is a stretch given the magnitude of the line, consider maing this a 32* play using the line and a 3* play using the money line. Each year for the past five seasons, I have had a 20+ DOG win outright. This does not mean that I will have one this year and of course I never know when it will occur. Being prepared for that massive upset is the point and I why I am suggesting the combination wager. I am seeing +900/950 at several books, so hopefully yours will offer you this opportunity as well. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-7 ATS mark good for 79.4% winners since 2005. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (APPALACHIAN ST) after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games. This system has gone 14-2 ATS over the L5 seasons and 50% of all plays made by the criteria of the system have covered the spread by 7 or more points. Idaho has been quite good on offense this year ranking 57th in the nation scoring 29 PPG and 41st with a 61.6% pass completion percentage. They will throw the ball again and again in this matchup and will be able to move the chains against App State. This type of fast paced offense is expected to wear down the APP defensive front and secondary where they are already thin. Take Idaho. |
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11-14-15 | Georgia Southern v. Troy +6.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
35* graded play on Troy as they host Georgia Southern in SUN Belt Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIm algorithm shows a high probability that Troy will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at up[setting GS. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-17 mark good for 69% winners and has made 27 units/unit wagered using the MONEY LINE since 1992. It has averaged a +118 DOG play as well. Play on a home team using the money line (TROY) off a huge blowout win by 35 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Troy is a solid 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) when they allow 5 or less net passing yards/attempt; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Toy is also 10-2 against the money line (+11.0 Units) in home games when they allow 22 to 28 points;  6-1 against the money line (+9.4 Units) in home games when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 or less yards/play. GS ranks first in the nation averaging 6.9 YPR, but this is quite misleading given their very weak SOS. They run the ball on 85% of their plays and really have no passing threat. Troy's strength on defense is certainly stopping the run where they rank 53rd allowing 4.1 YPR. They also have a a solid pass rush that ranks 24th getting a sack on 8% of all plays run. This also means that Troy can use that penetration to fill gaps and seal perimeters against the GS ground attack. They will contain the ground game more than enough for the offense to score points and remain fully competitive. Take Troy. |
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11-12-15 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 43 | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
50* graded play 'UNDER' the posted total int he Buffalo/NY Jets game set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 40 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-26 'under' mark good for 71% winners since 2010. Play 'Under' with any team against the total (NY JETS) after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Buffalo is a solid 26-13 UNDER (+11.7 Units) in road games when they allow 3.5 to 4 rushing yards per attempt;  27-12 UNDER (+13.8 Units) in road games when they gain 300 to 350 total yards; 36-20 UNDER (+14.0 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards. Buffalo is also  6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better over the last 2 seasons. Further, we see that the Jets are 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) vs. mistake prone teams 60+ penalty yards per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. On the fundamental front, I see both defenses dominating. Jets have OL problems and Chris Ivory has gained just 1.5 yards per rush over the last three weeks. Buffalo ranks 10th in the NFL allowing 3.9 YPR and will force Fitzpatrick to move the chains. This is where I think the real advantage is for the 'under'. Buffalo does not blitz very often and there will not be any reason to do that in third and long situations tonight either. Buffalo can defense the first down stripe by playing nickel defense in those third situations and force Jets punts. on the flip side, Buffalo has a decent ground attack, but the Jets have an even better run defense. so, with both teams not able to establish the run will make it even more difficult to setup and complete vertical routes. Take the 'UNDER' |
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11-11-15 | Bowling Green v. Western Michigan +3 | Top | 41-27 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
35* graded play on Western Michigan as they take on Bowling Green in MAC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that WMU will win this game. If you can get +145 or higher on the money line then I like making this a combination wager using a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-5 ATS mark good for 84% winners since 1992. Play on a home team (W MICHIGAN) after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BG is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. WMU is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons. Further, WMU is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. BG has one of the best offenses in the country led by their passing attack. However, WMU is solid defending the pass and rank 45th allowing 211 passing yards per game. The WMU ground attack will be the dominating factor leading WMU to a win. They rank 17th gaining 5.2 YPR and will also use play action to exploit a BG secondary that ranks 104th allowing 269 passing yards per game. Take Western Michigan. |
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11-10-15 | Kent State v. Ohio -6.5 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
35* graded play on Ohio University as they host Kent State in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Ohio will win this game by at least 10 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kent State is just 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt; 10-33 ATS (-26.3 Units) when they gain 5 or less net passing yards/attempt; 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they gain 250 to 300 total yards over the last 2 seasons. Ohio University is a solid  25-8 ATS (+16.2 Units) when they allow 5 or less net passing yards/attempt; 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 total yards; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games when they allow 4 to 4.5 total yards per play; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 150-200 yards. Kent State is a struggling offensive team to say the least. They rank 125th in scoring at 12.2 PPG, 124th gaining 124 yards per game, and 126th with a 0.179 points per play ratio. I believe Ohio will contain any offensive threat by Kent State. Ohio has a vastly better offense and one that can wear down the Kent State defensive front over the course of the game. They rank 58th gaining 399 yards per game and Kent ranks 44th allowing 375 yards per game. Kent just will not have the offensive fire power to keep up with Ohio on the scoreboard. Take Ohio. |
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11-09-15 | Bears +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Chicago Bears as they take on the San Diego Chargers in NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Chicago will lose this game by fewer than three points and have a great shot at winning SU. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 70-31 ATS mark good for 69% winners since 1983. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHICAGO) with a poor first half defense allowing 14 or more points per game, after a loss by 6 or less points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SD is just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons. Fox is a solid Fox is 22-6 ATS (+15.4 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better in all games he has coached. If not for Rivers, SD could be winless as the rest of the offense is very poor. They rank 29th in pass blocking and will be going up against Bears pass rush that ranks 16th best in the NFL. Not great, but all of the matchups certainly lean toward the Bears with the exception of the QB position. The Bears will get pressure up the middle against Rivers and not allow him to step up and execute strong powerful throws. I see Cutler having a huge night going against the worst defensive unit in the NFL by far. They are horrid in run defense and also pass coverage. Take the Bears. |
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11-08-15 | Raiders +6 v. Steelers | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 27* play using the line and a 8* play using the money line.  Not much respect being given to the Raiders and much media emphasis targeting their youthful age. Well, the Raiders do have the youngest average age of their starters and actually isn't that an advantage against the Steelers? I certainly believe so, and the Raiders right now believe they can compete with and defeat any team in the NFL. Raiders remain one of the 6 teams to have positive grades in overall offense and defense in my NFL database. Pittsburgh is one of those 6 teams as well, but Oakland has a vastly stronger defensive grade. Yes, it is the Raiders defense that is vastly better and I believe that will be quite obvious this afternoon. The Steelers barely grade positive on defense and are actually quite poor in the pass coverage grade ranking 31st in the NFL. They offset this weakness with a strong pass rush featuring zone blitz schemes. However, Raiders offense has positive grades across the board in run, pass, run blocking, and pass blocking. So, if Steelers send the blitz the corners will be under immense pressure to cover Cooper and Crabtree in man coverage. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 47-9 mark using the ML and has made 39 units/unit wagered averaging a +102 dog. So, that is 84% winners and supports the algorithm grading. Play on any team vs the money line (PITTSBURGH) off a home loss against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.Raiders are a solid  8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half; Steelers HC Tomlin is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) off 3 or more consecutive 'unders'. Take the Raiders. |
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11-08-15 | Packers v. Panthers +3 | Top | 29-37 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they take on the Green Bay packers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Carolina will win this game. As you may already know, I like taking these dogs and forming combination wagers using the money lie and line for maximum ROI. However, this line does not warrant such a combination wager. The ML needs to be at +145 and higher to validate the risk. With the betting line at +2 1/2 and +3 at most books, we need to get to + 3 1/2 line, which may happen in the next several hours. Not suggesting at all that we need that extra 1/2 point to win this wager, but it certainly never hurts to get the best possible line. In this case, if there is a line move, it will be due to the public wagers on Green Bay. Keep in mind too that the books may just increase the 'vig' and keep the line at + 3. So, you may see GB lined at -3 -125 at some point. This will move the money line higher. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-23 ATS mark good fo 69% winners since 1983. Play on underdogs or pick (CAROLINA) after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Carolina is a solid 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt;  8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons. GB is just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Carolina is a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons. Carolina is one six teams in my database that have positive overall gradings in both offense and defense. They rank 7th in offense and 5th in defense. The fact is that the GB offense is struggling and they rank 14th in overall offense and 28th in run blocking. Carolina defense is solid against the run and are arguably one of the best coverage teams in the NFL. That debate would include Denver and Arizona secondaries, but Carolina is elite in pass coverage. So, with the inability of the Packers to establish the ground attack, Rodgers will be forced to throw against an elite secondary. Carolina is the top ground attack in the NFL running a play on 50% of their plays. They rank best at 4.3 YPR, first with 33.3 rushes per game, first averaging 144 rushing yards per game. GB defense ranks 26th allowing 4.7 YPR and 25th allowing 124.4 rushing yards per game. Carolina is expected to have a huge edge in TOP and that domination will go a long way to Carolina remaining undefeated. Take the Panthers. |
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11-07-15 | LSU +8 v. Alabama | Top | 16-30 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
35* graded play on LSU as they take on Alabama in a monster showdown in the SEC set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows that LSU will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I love making these DOGS into combination wagers using a 26* play using the line and a 9* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven MONEY LINE system posting a 21-17 mark good for 55% winners, BUT has made a whopping 54 units/unit wagered since 2010. It has averaged an even more amazing +338 DOG play. Play on road underdogs vs. the money line (LSU) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins. Here is a second money line system that has gone 28-9 and has made 20 units/unit wagered averaging a +104 DOG play. Play on a road team using the money line (LSU) that is an excellent offensive team gaining >=440 YPG and is now facing a solid offensive offensive team gaining between 390 to 440 YPG after 7+ games of the regular season and after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games. This system is 2-0 this season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Alabama is just 12-29 ATS (-19.9 Units) in home games after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. Les Miles is Miles is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) after a game where they committed no turnovers as the coach of LSU. Alabama has a strong defensive unit, but I do not expect them to hold up against arguably the best offensive team in the nation. LSU ranks second in the nation averaging 0.59 points/play, 6th averaging 7.1 yards per play, and 2nd averaging 6.7 YPR. The LSU defense is a quite strong in their own right and ranks just below Alabama in several of categorical gradings. Yet, the LSU unit will be going against a much weaker offensive unit than that being faced by Alabama today. So, there is a much greater chance LSU dominates on defense and LSU just wears down the Alabama defensive front. Take LSU. |
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11-07-15 | Auburn +7 v. Texas A&M | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
35* graded play on Auburn as they take on Missouri in SEC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm projects a strong probability that Auburn will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-16 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 1992. Play against home favorites (TEXAS A&M) after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Texas A&M is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons; Sumlin is just Sumlin is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) after the first month of the season as the coach of Texas A&M. Now, here is an exceptional money line system that uncerscores the chance for the SU Auburn win. It has gone 36-37 for 49% winners, BUT has made a whopping 45.4 units per unit wagered since 2005. It has averaged an amazing +228 DOG play with that DOG winning the game 49% of the time. Play on road underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (AUBURN) with a terrible defense allowing 425 or more total yards/game, after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. Take Auburn. |
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11-07-15 | Florida State v. Clemson -10.5 | Top | 13-23 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
35* graded play on Clemson as they host FSU in a huge showdown in the ACC set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIm algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game by at least 14 points.  If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Clemson Tigers. The following technical research reinforces the graded ALGO play. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-13 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites (CLEMSON) in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. 50% of these plays based on the system criteria covered the spread by at least 7 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is a money making 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt;  10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons;   26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards; 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards. Further, we see that FSU is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) facing very good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons; 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Clemson is a rock solid 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game. The Clemson defense is the dominant reason they are ranked No.1 in the nation. They have allowed opponents to convert on 3rd down just 20% on the season and ranks BEST in the nation. FSU is not a strong running team. They rank 48th getting 180 yards per game, but I fully expect Clemson's defensive front to dominate and force FSU into third-and-long situations. On the other side of the ball, Clemson has a punishing ground attack ranking 21st and gaining 216 yards per game. Despite Clemson rushing the ball nearly 60% of all plays, they rank 34th averaging 263 passing yards per game. This is in large part to the play action routes that open up the middle of the field due to the defense having to play safeties in the box. Take Clemson. |
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11-06-15 | BYU v. San Jose State +13 | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
35* graded play on San jose State as they host BYU in NCAA action set to start at 11:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SJST will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. If you can get action on the money line then make this a combination wager comprised of a 31* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BYU has been a money burning 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt. SJST has an excellent ground attack that matches up quite well against the BYU run defense. It will be that ground attack that then will open up play action in vertical routes for SJST. Moving the chains will critical and SJST has done much better than BYU in 3rd down conversions. BYU ranks 90th converting 37% of those plays while SJST ranks 29th converting 44% of these plays. Further, SJST pass defense ranks best in the nation allowing just 131 passing yards per game. Granted, this is in large part due to their struggles to stop the run. BYU ranks a weak 101st in rushing yards per game. Take San Jose State. |
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11-05-15 | Buffalo v. Kent State +2.5 | Top | 18-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
35* graded play on Kent State as they host Buffalo in NCAA action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIm algorithm shows a high probability that KS will win this game. Normally, I would make this a combination wager, but at +2 line, the money line is not near high enough. However, if you do get a favorable line movement this afternoon and you can get +150 on the ML, then I suggest making a 27* play using the line and a 8* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-17 mark good for 67% winners and has made a very nice +29 units/unit wagered since 2010. It has averaged a +160 dog too making this a formidable system to use moving forward. Play on a home team vs. the money line (KENT ST) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Buffalo has been a money burning 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games versus poor offensive teams averaging |
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11-02-15 | Colts v. Panthers -6.5 | Top | 26-29 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they host the Indianapolis Colts in NFL Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Carolina will win this game by at least 10 points. Carolina is one of six teams that have positive overall grades on offense and defense in my grading database. They rank 6th best in overall offense, ninth in passing, third in rushing, fifth in pass blocking, and 15th in run blocking with a slightly negative grade. The run blocking is improving over the past four weeks, so that is truly not a glaring weakness that a 24th ranked Colts run defense can stop. Colts are just not good on either side of the ball and the Panthers have vast matchup advantages on both sides. Colts have significant negative grades on every category mentioned above and Carolina will expose those weaknesses. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Carolina is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt; 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when they rush for 150 to 175 yards; 58-17 ATS (+39.3 Units) when they rush for 125 or more yards; 60-15 ATS (+43.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points; 36-15 ATS (+19.5 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 50-100 yards. Take Carolina. |
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11-01-15 | Packers v. Broncos +2.5 | Top | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the Green Bay Packers in big time Sunday Night showdown set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Denver will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these DOGS a combination wager using a 28* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-9 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 2005. Play on home teams (DENVER) off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team scoring between 23 and 27 PPG against a good defensive team allowing between 14 and 18 PPG. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Denver is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. Much emphasis and for due reason is being placed on Payton Manning's 'bad' season and that he is just too old to play QB in the NFL. The Denver defense is the unit that Manning never had as support in his previous hall of fame career seasons. It is true that Manning's arm strength is not what it used to be especially on vertical routes, but he doesn't have to go for broke this season either. His defense will keep them in any ball game they face this season and in the playoffs. GB overall offense grade ranks just 11th in my database, which is in stark contrast to what the talking media heads claim. Further, the Packers OL is horrid in run blocking and will be facing an elite defense that ranks first overall by a vast margin, third in run defense, second in pass rush, and second in pass coverage grades. Simply, it would hard to find a stronger defense that Rogers has faced in his career and I think he and the Packers will struggle on both sides of the ball. Take Denver. |
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11-01-15 | Jets v. Raiders +3 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 105 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they host the NY jets in an important AFC matchup set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game. Given these projections I like making this a combination wager as long as you can get +150 from the money line portion. Â I do think that will be an easy task as I do see anough pubic money money coming in to move this line to - 3 1/2 Jets, or Jets -3 laying -125, which in turn would equate to a plus 160 money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-5 ATS mark good for 84% winners since 1983. Play on home teams (OAKLAND) a good offensive team averaging 23 to 27 PPG an dis now facing a good defensive team allowing between 14 and 18 PPG, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Jets are off an emotional loss to the divisional rival Patriots and this hangover will be a factor in this game. This is not an isolated phenomenon applying only to the Jets, but ALL NFL teams have difficult games following similar type losses. Jets are just 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) off a road loss against a division rival since 1992. There are 6 teams in the NFL that have positive overall grades in offense and defense in the database. Oakland is one of them and they are a team on the rise. They are young and do make mistakes as evidence by their league high committed penalty stats, but each way they do take another step forward. Currently the Jets and Steelers are in the wild card position, but with a win the Raiders certainly will be in position for a possible playoff run. Take the Raiders. |
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11-01-15 | Cardinals v. Browns +6.5 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Cleveland Browns as they take on the Arizona Cardinals in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that CLV will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a shot at the upset win. I like making this a combination wager using a 29* play on the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-14 mark good for 73% winners since 2005. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEVELAND) that is a struggling team being outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, after scoring 9 points or less last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Browns are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) facing solid passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Arizona does grade fifth best offensive unit in the NFL, but flying under the radar are the Browns, who rank ninth best. Plus, the Browns rank BEST in pass blocking grade and will be facing a ARZ pass rush that ranks 29th in the NFL. CLV only scored 6 points last week against STL, who is by far the top overall defensive unit, but completed 30-of-37 passes for 282 yards. That trend will continue here and the Browns will execute in the red zone. Take the Browns. |
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10-31-15 | Stanford -10 v. Washington State | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
50* graded play on Stanford as they take on Washington State in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Stanford will win this game by at least 17 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-14 mark good for 77% winners since 2005. Play against home underdogs (WASHINGTON ST) after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Stanford is a perfect  8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons; 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season; 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons; WSU is a money losing  2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games when they allow 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt; 14-36 ATS (-25.6 Units) when they allow 500 or more total yards since 1992;  5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. Teams evolve in college football and the turnover occurs every season and student athletes are on the roster for four years. However, the stats that extend back to 1992 as well as the shorter term ones bring to the light the most valid game stats and their outcomes. When a college teams scores 28 or more points, it can be a very strong indicator for the overall ATS outcome of the game. Such is the case with this matchup. I strongly believe that Stanford will easily score 28 points and could do it before half time. They are an elite offense and one that is flying under the radar. WSU defense has allowed a huge number of points and Stanford has just too much depth for the Cougars to contain for the entire game. Take Stanford. |
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10-31-15 | Notre Dame v. Temple +11 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
35* graded play on Temple as they host Notre Dame in a huge showdown for each team set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by fewer than 8 points. I also like making this a combination wager using a 31* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-2 mark using the money line for an incredible 94% win percentage since 1992. Play on a home team vs. the money line (TEMPLE) allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games against opponent after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ND is just 21-38 ATS (-20.8 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points and 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt. Further, we see that ND has struggled against team's with strong defensive units like Temple has this season. ND is just 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) versus good defensive teams allowing |
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10-26-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Arizona Cardinals -9 | Top | 18-26 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals as they take on the Baltimore Ravens in NFL Monday Night action set to start at  as they take on the  action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that ARZ will win this game by at least 11 points. There are five teams that have attained positive grades on both overall offense and defense. ARZ is one of them and I expect that to be quite evident in tonight's matchup against  a vastly inferior foe. Further, ARZ ranks third in the passing game grade and will be going up against a Ravens pass defense that is average at best and certainly below average in the secondary. So, although Baltimore has been good at stopping the run, the game plan for ARZ will be throw and stretch the defense with vertical routes that will in turn open up the running game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-18 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 2010. Play on favorites (ARIZONA) off a road loss, good team, winning 60% or more of their games on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ARZ is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. Further, ARZ is a near-perfect  9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) facing struggling passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons. Take the Arizona cardinals. |
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10-25-15 | Oakland Raiders +4 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 37-29 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the San Diego Chargers in AFC West action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM shows that Oakland will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager using a 27* play on the line and a 8* play using the money line. I am seeing +160 for the money line currently and this represents a great price level to execute the combination wager. Right now, Pittsburgh and the Jets control the wild card berths and a loss by either team in this matchup will essentially end any chance of a post season berth. Oakland ranks 10th best offense based on my gradings. They are exceptional in pass blocking too ranking third best in the NFL. The Chargers rank dead last in overall defense grade with a 31st rank defending the run and 24th in pass coverage. I expect the Raiders ground game to get rolling and then to use play action attacking the seams and the perimeter in man coverage situations. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers rank 21st in overall offense grade. If it were not for the talent and tenacity of Philip Rivers, this ranking would be far worse. He has been amazing despite having an OL line ranked 31st in pass blocking grade. The Raiders though are a defensive unit on the rise and currently rank 19th overall, 12th defending the run, and 18th in pass rush. Their one weakness has been in pass coverage where they rank 24th, but again, they are a unit on the rise and I fully expect them to contain Rivers in this game. Further, the Raiders ground game will give them a significant edge in TOP and keep Rivers off the field. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-6 ATS mark good for 81% winners since 2010. Play against home teams (SAN DIEGO) excellent offensive team gaining >=370 YPG and is now facing a good offensive team gaining between 335 to 370 YPG, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons; SD is a money burning 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons. Take the Raiders. |
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10-25-15 | NY Jets v. New England Patriots -7.5 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
35* graded play on the New England Patriots as they host the NY jets in AFC East action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NE will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-6 ATS mark good for 82.4% winners since 1983. Play on home favorites (NEW ENGLAND) in a game involving two teams who outpass their opponents by 1.5+ yards per pass, after the current home favorite gained 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are a perfect  7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus excellent offensive teams averaging >=375 yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons. Patriots rank 4th in overall offense, third in passing, and a solid 9th in rushing based on my gradings. The media talk all week has centered on the Jets best defense in the NFL theme, but honestly, my work shows them as the 12th best defensive unit (10th versus the run. 25th pass rush, and 6th in pass coverage). Patriots rank 11th in pass blocking grade, despite having numerous injuries along the OL and with many players taking on two different positions in the same game. I'll be brief here, Brady will have time to throw and will be able to make the correct decisions connecting to his receiver. If the Jets take away the underneath routes, which I expect them to try, Brady will be able to exploit man coverage on the perimeter. In addition, if the Jets try and blitz and/or take away the underneath routes, it leaves TE Gronkowski in man coverage. Patriots defense has struggled against the run and the Jets do have a strong matchup with Ivory in this area. Yet, a strong running game will not be near enough to keep with the Patriots offense that I believe will put up a ton of points this afternoon in Foxboro. Take the Patriots. |
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10-24-15 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss -5 | Top | 3-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
50* graded play on Mississippi as they host Texas A&M in SEC action set to start at  as they take on the  action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. My rating system equates to wagers that can be placed. In other words if you wager $100 on my 25* graded plays, then wager no more than $200 on this play. If you wager a dime on the 25* plays than wager no more than a 50* play on this one. Use common sense and discipline. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Mississippi will win this game by at least 10 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. In the majority of my plays, the number 28 comes up a lot and essentially acts as a pivot point of sorts. In this case, I feel very confident that Mississippi will score 28 or more points. Note that in past games since 1992, Texas A&M is just 23-78 ATS (-62.8 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Further, there are other 'bad news' items hitting Texas A&M. They are a money burning 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) in road games when they commit 2 turnovers since 1992;  10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) when they allow 400 to 450 total yards since 1992;  5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992. Now, again, the 28 points scored part comes up and is validated by the high probability that Ole Miss will score at least 28 points. They are a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt since 1992. This last historical reference also under scores the present fundamental matchup I see that will dominate this game in favor of Mississippi. That is that Ole Miss will control the LOS on both sides of the ball. They will get the ground game going and then use play action to stretch the defense even further with vertical and 'double-move' routes. We have also seen Ole Miss controlling the ball for less than half the game, but that is not because of fundamental flaws. Further A&M is just 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) in road games facing ball control teams posting 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992. In finally, A&M is 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 63 since 1992; 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game since 1992. An intangible is that Ole Miss lost in humiliating fashion to vastly inferior Memphis team. They got looking ahead to this conference showdown. I am very confident Ole Miss as a team will be extremely focused on executing each play run to perfection. Ole miss ranks just 71st in passing yards allowed, BUT they rank 17th in opponent yards per pass. They are excellent in vertical route coverage and also get enough pressure on the QB without having to bring the blitz. Take Mississippi for a 50* graded play. |
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10-24-15 | New Mexico v. San Jose State OVER 57 | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
25* graded play 'OVER' New Mexico/San Jose State in NCAA action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that more than 61 points will be scored in this game. In the majority of my NCAA football releases, the number 28 becomes a very important marker. When the scoreboard shows 28 points or more for a given team in a SIM graded release, the probabilities of a ATS cover or total win increases dramatically. Of course, it always helps when both of our teams in this play are projected to score more than 28 points, but it is based on the SIM projections. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Jose State is a strong  33-12 OVER (+19.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points. New Mexico is a solid 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 seasons. Take the 'OVER' |
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10-24-15 | Missouri v. Vanderbilt +1 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Vanderbilt as they take on Missouri in SEC action set to start at 4:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Vandy will win this game by at least 6 points. They are just a 1 point dog, but the betting flows are expected to be heavily on the side of Missouri as game time approaches. I would choose to wait and see if this line movement occurs and look to get +2 lines. Now, I am not saying we need the extra point to win this play, but it never hurts to give you what the market offers.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-36 mark for just 47% winners, BUT has made a whopping 54 units/unit wagered since 1992. The reason is that it has averaged a +280 dog play. Play on home underdogs vs. the money line (VANDERBILT) after scoring 14 points or less last game against opponent after a playing a game where 24 total points or less were scored. Here is a second system that has gone 37-16 for 70% winners and has made 30 units/unit wagered averaging a +124 dog play since 1992. Play against a road team vs. the money line (MISSOURI) after a playing a game where 24 total points or less were scored against opponent after a playing a game where 29 total points or less were scored. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Missouri is just  10-25 against the money line (-30.9 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points; 2-8 against the money line (-13.8 Units) vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game. Two of the best SEC defenses face off in this matchup. I give the edge to Vandy noting they rank 6th in third down conversions allowed while Missouri ranks 76th. Further, Vandy ranks ninth in the nation with a 55.7% TOP percentage. Missouri is 109th at just 45% TOP. The Vandy offense will be far more successful in third down conversions and moving the chains than Missouri and that will be a dominant theme in what will be a field position first priority for Vandy. Take Vanderbilt. |
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10-24-15 | Bowling Green v. Kent State UNDER 59 | Top | 48-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
25* graded play 'UNDER' Kent State/Bowling Green in NCAA action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 57 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 53-19 mark good for 74% winners since 2005. Play Under with all teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (KENT ST) after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in October games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BG is a solid 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in road games when they allow 15 to 21 points; 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 net passing yards/attempt; 23-5 UNDER (+17.5 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards. HC Kent State coach Haynes is  6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) versus excellent offensive teams averaging >=450 yards/game. Take the 'UNDER'. |
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10-24-15 | Boston College v. Louisville UNDER 37 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
25* graded play 'UNDER' Boston College/Louisville in NCAA action set to start at 12:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 35 points will be scored in this matchup.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-9 mark good for 80% winners since 2005. Play Under with all teams where the total is 42 or less (LOUISVILLE)  and is a struggling team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record, in conference games. 48% of all the plays made based on this system went 'under' by at least 7 points. This under scores my expectations for a hard fought defensive struggle. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BC is a perfect 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) facing below average passing defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons;  11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) in road games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games; Louisville is a perfect 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons. Take the 'UNDER'. |
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10-23-15 | Utah State v. San Diego State +5 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
35* graded play on San Diego State as they host Utah State in NCAA action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. Â SIM algorithms show a high probability that SDST will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making these dogs of greater than 3 points into combination wagers comprised of a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-7 ATS mark good for 83% winners since 2005. Â Play against a road team (UTAH ST) off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. 64% of the winning plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. SDST is a strong running team and uses the run to set up the pass and play action opportunities. They rank 18th in the nation averaging 46.7 running plays per game and 10th rush play percentage at 66.2%. UTST has been able to thwart the ground attack on their opponents to date, but I clearly see SDST getting the ground game going and simply wearing down the UTST defensive front over the course of the game. Also, note that when SDST does pass they are looking to vertical routes. They rank a decent 68th averaging 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Take San Diego State. |
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10-22-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers +6.5 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
35* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. Also, a 10* play 'OVER" the posted total. SIM algorithms show a high probability that the 49ers will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making these DOGS a combination wager comprised of a 28* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line. Instead of the combination wager, you could play a parlay using the money line and the 'over' for no more than 5* play. Another consideration is to play a 5* play using the money line and 'over' 49 1/2 on the adjusted total spread. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-14 ATS mark good for 72% winners since 1983. Play on home underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) with a good offense averaging 5.4 or more yards/play, after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Seattle is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The difference between these two defenses is quite vast. However, the one thing SF does well is defend the run and this is clearly the key to SF winning this game. In stopping or at least containing Marshawn Lynch, the 49ers then force Wilson to win the game with his arm. Note, that the Seattle offense grades 26th best in my NFL overall grades and that SF is right behind them - so the offenses are nearly equal and SF has been steadily improving the past few weeks. I also see Kaepernick having a break-out game to the 2015 campaign. The Seattle defense grades modestly negative in pass coverage. Kaepernick's mobility and quickness presents a problem to the Seattle secondary. By extending play, Kaepernick can allow his receivers a few extra seconds to gain separation and make high percentage throws. Further, we see that Seattle is just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons. Take the 49ers. |
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10-19-15 | NY Giants +5.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 7-27 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
35* graded play on the NY Giants as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. This is a major divisional battle for control of the NFC East and obviously the Eagle fans will be in a frenzy by game time. My SIM algorithms show a high probability that the Giants will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and also has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 28* play using the line and a 7* p;lay using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-14 mark good for 75% winners since 1983. Play against favorites (PHILADELPHIA) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a team winning between 25% to 40% of their games and now playing a team with a winning record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Giants are a solid  27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt. Eagles ofensee is always in the media focus given Chip Kelly's background and resume. Yet, they continue to not play consistent football and execute for 60 minutes. They rank 24th in overall grade. It has the defense that has out performed so far this season, but here again they have allowed scores and big gains with failed assignments in coverage. Yet, they rank 4th overall i total defensive grade. The key, though is that are not doing well in the pass rush categories and against Eli Manning, you cannot have a defense that does not get pressure on him. If he gets more than 3.5 seconds of time to scan the field, he will pick the Eagles secondary apart. If the Eagles blitz he has slant routes to the TE and WR (Beckham) in man coverage. RB Vareen also presents matchup problems for the Eagles defense, who will be forced to respect his presence on the field as a release valve if the Eagles choose to blitz. His presence in any down and distance almost eliminates the Eagles blitz. Eli is a veteran quarterback, who truly know how to take what a defense gives his team. Take the Giants. |
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10-18-15 | San Diego Chargers +11 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show |
35* graded play on the San Diego Chargers as they take on the Green Bay packers in NFL action set to start at  as they take on the  action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SD will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a decent shot at the upset. In order to take advantage of the upset, consider playing a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-12 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 1983. Play against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. Here is a second system that has gone 27-7 ATS for 79% winners since 1983. Play against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SD defense has been suspect to say the least, but GB is just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games facing struggling defensive teams allowing >=6 yards/play. SD has struggled to run the ball, but I expect them to have greater success in this matchup. Green Bay has a good run defense if you listen to the media, but based on my work, they have the 25th best run stop grade in the NFL. They do have a strong pass rush, but Rivers is fully capable of getting rid of the ball quickly, especially now that AntonioGates is back at TE. The Chargers have failed to stop the run, but what they do well is pass rush and cover receivers. Further, GB offense ranks 29th in run blocking grade and for this matchup I give the edge to the SD defensive front. Rivers has a 103.8 QB rating, is completing 71% of his pass attempts, and is averaging 323 passing yards per game. This simple set of facts can not be under estimated simply because the Chargers are visiting Lambeau. Take the Chargers. |
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10-18-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Buffalo Bills +3 | Top | 34-21 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that Buffalo will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 85-39 mark using the money line good for 69% winners since 2005. Play against road teams using the money line (CINCINNATI) after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season. Here is a second money line system that has gone 51-13 for 80% winners since 2010. Play on home teams using the money line (BUFFALO) with a good rushing defense allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Buffalos offense is steady and is showing some signs of better execution, but it will be their Rex Ryan signature defense that will win this game. In the past Ryan's defense schemes have featured tremendous pass rush pressure, but this year's edition has featured very strong pass coverage. Bengals are the fourth best overall offense and rank first in the passing game based on my gradings. The Jets pass coverage will be strong enough to disrupt the Bengals offensive flow and generate a few turnovers. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.Buffalo is a solid  28-11 ATS (+15.9 Units) when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt;Bengals are a money losing 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Take Buffalo. |
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10-17-15 | Missouri v. Georgia -14.5 | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
35* graded play on Georgia as they take on Missouri in SEC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  SIM algorithms show a high probability that Georgia will win this game by 17 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 83-37 ATS mark good for 69% winners  since 2010. Play on any team (GEORGIA) excellent rushing team gaining >=4.8 YPR against a poor rushing team gaining between 3 to 3.5 YPR, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Missouri is just 5-29 ATS (-26.9 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 2 or more yards/play; 12-31 ATS (-22.1 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play; Georgia is a solid 25-7 ATS (+17.3 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points. Georgia is a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses. Georgia has a very strong offense that will be going up against a vastly improved Missouri defense. However, Missouri's offense is not good and will not be able to compete and match the offensive output of the Bulldogs. Missouri offense ranks 119th scoring just 15.2 PPG while Georgia's ranks 26th scoring 35 PPG. Georgia has had a very difficult schedule, but still ranks 35th in opponent yards allowed at 4.9, 37th allowing 361 yards per game, and 33rd in opponent rushing yards per catty at 3.6. Missouri has big struggles running the ball ranking 103rd gaining just 3.6 and will struggle even more against a defense that has already played Alabama. I think Georgia  will dominate both sides of the LOS and will score almost at will. Take Georgia. |
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10-17-15 | Michigan State v. Michigan -7 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Michigan Wolverines as they host Michigan State in a major BIG TEN matchup set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that Michigan will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-12 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 2005. Play on a home team (MICHIGAN) with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game, after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. 52% of these plays covered the spread by 10 or more points and based on the SU record of the system the home team has a 47-4 winning record. The Michigan defense is very real and this year's edition of the MSU offense is not all that strong. The Spartans rank 58th in the nation in offensive yards per game. Wolverine defense ranks 1st in scoring defense at just 6.3 PPG and yards allowed at just 181 per game, and allowing only 2.9 yards per play. Michigan is a solid 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games. Harbaugh is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half in all games he has coached. His presence was expected to bring back Michigan to a Big TEN powerhouse, but it is happened far faster than anyone thought possible. After three straight shutouts, it is quite clear that the team is Harbaugh's and that the players are all on the same page. Dominant winning only makes the team family chemistry that much stronger and that much more focused. Michigan is the play. |
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10-17-15 | West Virginia v. Baylor -20.5 | Top | 38-62 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
35* graded play on Baylor as they take on West Virginia in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that Baylor will win this game by 27 or more points. Baylor is the top scoring offense in the nation at 63.8 PPG, yards per game at 710, points per play at 0.83, yards per play at 9.3, and third down conversions at 61%. WVU is a decent team , but I don't believe they have the strength to match Baylor's offense for an entire game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-15 for 76% winners since 1992. Play against underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points (W VIRGINIA) after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. Here is a second system that has gone 23-4 ATS for 85% winners since 1992. Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BAYLOR) excellent offensive team gaining >=6.2 YPP against a team with an average defense allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 YPP, after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Baylor is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 9.5 to 10 net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when they rush for 5 to 5.5 yards per attempt since 1992. Further, we see that WVU is just  2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons and head coach Briles is a near-perfect Briles is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 70 as the coach of Baylor. Take Baylor. |
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10-12-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. San Diego Chargers -3.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
35* graded play on the San Diego Chargers as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that SD will win this game by 6 or more points. Rivers is playing some of his best football of his career and has willed his team to a 2-2 record through four games. His flash stats don't look all that impressive, but he is executing progressions at a very high level and not forcing balls into tight coverages. Tonight, he will be facing a highly suspect secondary that grades 25th in pass coverage. The Chargers offense grades 8th in passing offense grade and has steadily risen in each of the past three weeks. Plus, he gets TE Gates back tonight. SD will design a scheme to stretch the Steeler defense vertically and then use the underneath routes as essentially long handoffs. This controls the clock and moves the chains. SD already ranks 3rd in offensive yards per game at 411 and I fully expect them to eclipse this mark tonight. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Pittsburgh is just 17-38 ATS (-24.8 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards; 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 total yards per play; Chargers are a solid money making 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play. Even with Vick under center, the Steelers do have two big-time play makers in Bell and Brown. I do believe that the SD defensive front will be able to control the LOS and then be able to blitz Vick and force him into quick throws - as opposed to letting him air it out to either Brown or Bell. Take San Diego. |
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10-11-15 | San Francisco 49ers +7 v. NY Giants | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
35* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the NY Giants in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that SF will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. I like adding a 3* play using the money line to take advantage of the possible upset SFD 49er win for a total of 28* of risk. 49ers rank dead last in team offense scoring just 12 PPG. They do rank 5th best gaining 4.4 yards per rush and this will be a dominant key to the 49ers remaining competitive in this game. Kaepernick is vastly better than what he has produced this season and he knows he is on the hot seat and could be benched if he under performs again. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 111-57 ATS mark good for 66% winners since 1983. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) and is a struggling team outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SF is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons; Giants are a 15-40 ATS (-29.0 Units) when they allow 125 to 150 rushing yards. Kaepernick has a big game led by a strong running game that will include Kaepernick as well. Take the 49ers. |
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10-11-15 | Buffalo Bills v. Tennessee Titans +1 | Top | 14-13 | Push | 0 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Tennessee Titans as they take on the Buffalo Bills in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that Tennessee will win this game. Unless you can get +145 or higher on a ML play or higher my normally featured combination wager is not validated. If the line does adjust to the needed level, the consider making a 18* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Â Titans QB Mariota is already showing why he was worthy to be the No. 1 pick. According to Elias, Marcus Mariota is the third quarterback in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) to have multiple touchdown passes in each of his first three career games. The other two are Jay Cutler (2006) and Mark Rypien (1988), who both had multiple touchdown passes in their first four games. Taylor has done well in the Bills wins and has struggled in their losses. So, as he goes so go the Bills. The absence of RB McCoy certainly hurts the versatility of the Bills offense and ultimately forces Taylor to win the game with his arm. Trouble for him in this matchup is that Buffalo grades 7th best in the NFL in pass coverage grade. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 84-36 mark good for 70% winners using the Money Line and has made 53 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play against road teams using the money line (BUFFALO) after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Titans are a solid 43-19 ATS (+22.1 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play; Â 1-6 against the money line (-8.6 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons. Take the Buffalo Bills. |
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10-11-15 | Chicago Bears +9.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 18-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Chicago Bears as they take on the KC Chiefs in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that the Bears will lose this game by fewer than 6 points. The chance for an upset is not that high, but nevertheless add a 4* play using the money line - just in case. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-19 mark good for 71% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games. This system has gone 11-1 ATS the past three seasons. The Bears defense has done well this season and grade 9th best overall, and 6th best against the run based on my gradings. KC offense has not been consistent and I strongly believe that Chicago will dominate the LOS. I am also expecting the Bears defense to create turnovers and give the offense a short field to score points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. KC is just 1-11 against the money line (-11.3 Units) after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. Take the Bears. |
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10-10-15 | Indiana v. Penn State -7 | Top | 7-29 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
35* graded play on Penn State as they host Indiana in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that PSU will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 57-20 ATS mark using the first half line and good for 74% winners since 2010. Play on favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (PENN ST) in conference games, returning 8+ offensive starters and QB against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters. I do believe this play based on the SIM is valid to include a 5* play using the first half line. Indiana has a strong ground game, but PSU linebacker play has been improving steadily each week. They won't shut Indiana down, but they will do enough to force Indiana into passing downs and third and long situations. The big part of this game is that PSU will be highly productive in the ground game and will gain at least 175 yards and average between 4.5 to 5.0 yards per rush. In past games, PSU is a solid 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt. PSU quarterback Hackenburg is likely to be a NFL top-10 pick, but he has not had the time to display is elite arm. This game will give him that opportunity facing a Hoosier defense that has allowed an average of 503 yards per game. PSU defense has allowed just 284 opponent yards and only 158 opponent rushing yards. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Hoosier coach Wilson is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games versus good rushing defenses allowing |
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10-08-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans -2 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Houston Texans as they take on the Indianapolis Colts in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that the Texans will win this game by at least 6 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 20-6 mark good for 77% winners and has made 22.3 units/unit wagered averaging a very nice +142 DOG play since 2005. Play on any team vs the money line (HOUSTON) after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after a win by 3 or less points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston has been a solid  31-10 ATS (+20.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points; 33-55 ATS (-27.5 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points. Status of luck will not matter in this game. So, if the unexpected happens and he does start, this is still a valid play. The line will adjust accordingly and offer us an even stronger opportunity. Houston is 1-3 on the season and is desperate for a win. Playing at home is a huge advantage for the Texans and I fully expect a huge effort across the board. Colts are floundering right now and I don't see them being able to move the ball consistently in this matchup. Take the Houston Texans. |
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10-04-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Washington redskins as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. Sim shows a high probability that Washington will win this game. The line is currently asking a vig premium at Washington +3 -120, but I don't think there is a chance that this line will go to 2 1/2. Normally, I would play this as a combination wager using line and money line wagers. The ML risk/reward profile simply does not make it a solid wager. Id you do get a money line of +145 or higher, then consider play a 17* play using the line and an 8* play using the money line. What was supposed to be a high powered offensive team has turned more into a defensive presence for the Eagles. Bradford looks lost in his progressions and seems scared to death to throw down field in vertical routes. It could be due his B2B ACL injuries and rehabs. Whatever the reason, he looks stressed in the pocket on any route taking 3 seconds or more. The Eagles grade 25th best in the NFL and the passing grade is a horrid dead last in the NFL. Washington's defense is play well and they have the 6th best pass rush based on the gradings. So, you can assured the Redskins will bring pressure from a wide array of schemes. Washington plays a 3-4 scheme and DE Chris Baker grades 5th best in the NFL and is very good against the run. He will almost eliminate flare passes to Eagles RB Sproule's with his seal the edge discipline. He ranks 2nd best in the NFL at his position in pass coverage. So, you have a quick DE dropping back to cover a TE or RB while the zone blitz attacks the QB. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-8 mark using the MONEY LINE for 83% winners since 2010. Play on home teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) with a good rushing defense allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. Take the Washington Redskins. |
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10-04-15 | Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 | Top | 37-23 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Tampa Bay Bucs as they take on the Carolina Panthers in NFC South action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that the Bucs will win this game. I am starting to see the emergence of a money line above +150 and this represents an excellent level to construct a combination wager comprised of a 19* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-6 ATS mark good for 83% winners since 2010. Play against road teams (CAROLINA) off a win against a division rival, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season. Bucs know with a win today they can put themselves right back in the chase having JAX and then Washington next on the schedule. The Bucs WR will have to be a presence today. I do believe Vincent Jackson, Louis Murphy, Mike Evans, and Russell Shepard will have solid games today. Carolina's defense overall is strong, but their corners are not all that impressive. Josh Norman is by far their best, so the favorable matchup is Murphy in man coverage against Tillman. I cannot state with any degree of confidence that one of these corners will shadow Jackson or not, but whatever the decision, there will be opportunities for Winston to extend the defense with vertical routes. This is key as it will then open up a running game that has so far struggled. Their LT has not played well, however he will be getting more help from TE's Stocker and Seferian-Jenkins. Bucs TE have just 7 catches to a TE and all to Jenkins. The game plan today must have more targets to both of these TE players. Theses plays are long hand offs and can serve to augment both the ground attack and the play action vertical routes. In sum, I see Winston having his best game yet as a rookie. Take the Bucs. |
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10-03-15 | Arizona v. Stanford -11 | Top | 17-55 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
35* graded play on Stanford as they take on Arizona in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Stanford will win this game by 13 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. At the college level some of the most important projections revolves around the number 28. Scoring 28 or yielding 28 often times leads to a direct correlation to an ATS cover. Arizona is just 16-44 ATS (-32.4 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points; 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards; 4-25 ATS (-23.5 Units) when they allow 450 to 500 total yards; Stanford is a solid money making 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 34-9 ATS (+24.1 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards; 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 33-13 ATS (+18.7 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards; Â 21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards. Arizona is 3-1 as is Stanford. Arizona though is coming off a very humbling defeat to Conference powerhouse UCLA. In what was lined at pick-em ended with UCLA winning 56-30. Arizona completed just 10 of 28 pass attempts for only 115 yards and three interceptions. Stanford was upset by what is a much better Northwestern team than preseason previews indicated and has since won three straight in dominating fashion. Rushing yards has increased in each game this season. The last game saw them gain 325 yards on 48 attempts and I strongly believe they will gain 250+ in this matchup. Arizona will bring defenders into the box to stop the run and this will open up play action for high percentage completions. So, the Stanford passing game will be featured a bit more than usual to take advantage of what the Arizona defense sets. Take Stanford. |
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10-03-15 | Texas Tech v. Baylor -17 | Top | 35-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
35* graded play on Baylor as they take on Texas Tech in Big 12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. This game has also set the all-time high - at least in my database - for the highest total ever posted in Vegas at 90 1/2 earlier this week. It has since come down a touch to 88 1/2. Baylor's coaches know they have major advantages on both sides of the ball. I believe their goal will not be to get into a shoot out with this high powered Tech offense and instead use their unstoppable ground attack to wear down the much smaller Tech DL over the course of the first half. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-6 mark good for 83% winners since 1992. Play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS TECH) in a game involving two excellent passing teams gaining >=8.3 PYA and after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game. This system is a very nice 5-1 ATS the last three seasons. Of the 34 plays made by the system, 53% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. Of the wimnning plays, 65% of them covered by 7+ points. Here is a second system that ahs gone 111-57 ATS for 66% winners since 1992.  Play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS TECH) excellent passing team with a completion pct of 62% or better, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game. This system is 3-0 ATS this season and of all plays qualified by the criteria 48% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Baylor is 24-4 ATS (+19.6 Units) when they rush for 300 or more yards; 32-8 ATS (+23.2 Units) when they gain 550 or more total yards I see no reason that would prevent Baylor from attaining more than 300 rushing yards and more than 550 total offensive yards. Take Baylor. |
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10-03-15 | Alabama v. Georgia +1 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
35* graded play on Georgia as they host Alabama in a huge SEC Conference showdown set to start at 3:30 PM ET. Sim shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by at least 4 points. The public is on 76% of the tickets being written and it has pushed the line down to pick-em at the majority of books. Too much focus on the belief that Alabama just will lose their second game this early in this season. Yet, Georgia has an amazing offense that is highlighted by the media, but is still vastly underrated. More significantly, a win today would leave the Bulldogs with a much clearer path toward their first conference title in a decade, and a nearly certain spot in the College Football Playoff. Georgia has only one other ranked opponent after Saturday's game: No. 25 Florida. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-11 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 2005. Play on a home team (GEORGIA) with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game, after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points. Last 3 seasons this system has gone 10-2 ATS and of all plays made since 2005, 52% of them covered by 7+ points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Alabama is just 12-37 ATS (-28.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points; 102-47 ATS (+50.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. The algorithms show that Georgia will out gain Alabama in rushing and passing and will have at least a 1.0 yard per play advantage. Also, Alabama is an imperfect  0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. Last, check out this link to see the latest great IGA video. Not a reason to wager on this game, but still quite impressive and very well done. https://www.dawgnation.com/football/dawgnation/uga-releases-chilling-the-storm-hype-video-for-alabama-game. Take Georgia. |
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10-02-15 | Temple -20 v. Charlotte | Top | 37-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
35* graded play on Temple as they take on Charlotte in NCAAF action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  SIM shows a high probability that Temple will win this game by 24 or more points. Temple is coming off their BYE week and will be very well rested adn focused for this road tilt. They were heavy road favorites in their last game and needed a mircale finish to just win against UMASS. The minutemen are a pretty darn good squad though and trailed by just 1 point entering the fourth quarter to Notre Dame, before they went on a scoring spree and won going away. Temple will not be overlooking the opponent tonight that is playing in their first full season as an FBS team. They were gashed by Middle Tennessee and I believe Temple will do the same. Charlotte has a decent defense based on the flash stats, but there are several mighty big holes that Temple will be able to exploit. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-29 ATS mark good for 68% winners since 2010. Play against any team (CHARLOTTE) poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) against a team with a good rushing defense (3 to 3.5 YPR). Further, you will see that Charlotte will struggle big in the passing game and may not even get more than 125 passing yards in this matchup. Yemple defense will dominate LOS and make it very difficult for Charlotte to score. Take Temple. |
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10-01-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Pittsburgh Steelers as they take on the Baltimore Ravens in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. Sim shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will win this game - yes, that also factors in the loss of Roethlisberger and then being replaced by a 35-year Michael Vick. The focus by the media has been how devastating a loss he is for the offense, but there has been little mentioned about how horrible the Ravens offense has been through three weeks. They rank 30th in my overall team offensive grading. Their pass blocking has been by far the worst (lowest grade) of all NFL teams and Pittsburgh loves to dial up zone blitzes. Steelers pass coverage has been well below average, but is due to the many injuries at those positions and also when the blitz has failed - which is not too many times. CB Ross Cockrell has played on just a third of all snaps, but has done very well when in the game. I do expect him to see more snaps tonight and the secondary will be required to defend the Ravens receivers for much shorter bursts of time. Although Vick is 35, he is still an elite athlete with gifted legs. This is a major difference between he and Big Ben. Vick will be able to put immense pressure on the secondary simply by extending plays. His mobility will minimize the amounts of Raven blitz's tonight. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-8 ATS mark good for 79% winners since 2005.  Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BALTIMORE) with a poor first half defense scoring14 or more points per game, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Ravens have been  3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 total yards per play;  8-26 ATS (-20.6 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards; Steelers are a perfect  6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons. Take the Steelers. |
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09-28-15 | Kansas City Chiefs +7 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
35* graded play on the  Kansas City Chiefs as they take on the Green Bay Packers in MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM shows definitively that KC will lose this game by less than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game. It is well documented that if you get the winner of the MNF matchup, you will also get the cover ASTS in the majority of games. So, given the favorable projections from the SIM showing that KC has a 47% chance of a SU win and the fact that we are getting paid +245 to assume that risk, I like making this a combination wager. One of two wagers serves to maximize the risk/reward profile. First, wager a 25* amount on the line and add a 3* play using the money line for a 28* amount of total risk. Second, to wager am 18* play on the line and then add a 7* play using the money line. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. KC is a solid  10-2 against the money line (+8.1 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 7-1 against the money line (+6.3 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons; 13-4 against the money line (+9.8 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. KC has the ground attack led by Charles to control the tempo of the game and gain a significant margin in time of possession. Always a key to going on the road and winning at Lambeau. Despite the scoring barages, there are only 6 teams that have graded positive overall offensive grades. GB ranks 11th and KC 12th, so contrary to media opinions, the Packers are not executing a high level entering this game. GB ranks 23rd in run blocking grade and will struggle against a vastly under rated KC run defense that ranks fifth best. Javing a athletic pass catching TE is a big weapon too for KC. They will execute short passes, which are essentially long hand offs that will spread the linebackers and open up even bigger creases for Charles to dart through in space. Then there is the play action, which no matter the team, is a strong offensive opportunity where Kelce may be the target more often than not. I do believe you will see ample opportunities for KC to strike in the vertical route with Kelce in 'go' routes. Take Kansas City. |
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09-27-15 | San Francisco 49ers +6.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 7-47 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
35* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Arizona Cardinals in NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM projects that SF will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given the strong possibility of the upset I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 19* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. SF looked quite poor on offense last week in their 43-18 loss at Pittsburgh. However, a bit misleading as Kaepernick passed for 298 yards on a strong 33-46 passing. I am impressed with how they are now using TE Vernon Davis in high percentage routes to create short 2nd and third down siltations. The Arizona offense is doing quite well, but it has put pressure on the defense and their pass defense ranks 29th in the NFL. SF is an 'old' team, but they still have plenty of NFL talent. Kaepernick is also a QB with good legs and can extend plays that puts even more pressure on that suspect secondary. When Kaepernick has started, the 49ers, are a solid 16-9 ATS in road tilts and also 11-5 ATS when facing a team with a win percentage of 75% or higher regardless of the week in the season. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 19-13 mark good for 59.4% winners and has made a whopping 31 units/unit wagered averaging a +230 DOG play since 1983. Play against home favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (ARIZONA) after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. I certainly see the 49ers getting at least 125 rushing yards and may be in a=large part attributed to Kaepernick's scrambling ability. 49ers are 11-2 against the money line (+9.0 Units) when they rush for 125 or more yards over the last 3 seasons; Â 9-0 against the money line (+10.2 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons. Take the 49ers. In addition take the New Orleans Saints for a bonus 25* play. Â |
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09-27-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Tennessee Titans +3.5 | Top | 35-33 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Tennessee Titans as they host the Indianapolis Colts in AFC Divisional action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that Tennessee will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Colts are a desperate need of a win and the public sentiment agreeing with that notion is more than reflected in this inflated line. Most think there is no way the Colts can start 0-3, but that is opinion not based on the facts of their first two games. They stumbled out of the gate last season too, but the results are vastly worse this season. Luck, under siege by an aggressive Jets defense throughout the night, has thrown five interceptions and completed just 54.7 percent of his passes in the two losses. His 58.9 passer rating is last in the NFL. Â Based on my gradings, Luck is 28th among 33 QB through two weeks of action. If he was under constant pressure, I could make a claim that he will have a huge day today or at least perform significantly better over the next severals weeks. Problem is he has been hit just ONCE while attempting a pass play. He also ranks 30th in yards per attempt and until he and the offense can stretch the field using the vertical routes, there will be minimal change in execution. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-8 mark good for 83% winners using the money line. Play against a road teams vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Colts are just 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points. Take Tennessee. |
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09-26-15 | Southern Miss +21 v. Nebraska | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
35* graded play on Southern Mississippi as they take on Nebraska in NCAA action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM shows a summary projection that SM will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. Although the probabilities are low for an outright upset shocker, I encourage you, if available, to put down another 3* unit on the money line. Each season I have had 20+ dogs not only cover, but win outright. I never know when one of these huge dogs is going to shock the world, so it is imperative to maintain your wager discipline each week in order never to miss out on any ATS win or ML gain. SM comes into this game with 10 returning starters on offense including their QB. These teams have experience and chemistry, especially on the OL, that be a significant competitive advantage. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SM is a solid 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt; 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 total yards per play. Further, we see that SM is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games since 1992. SM played hard against Miss State and covered in Week 1. When going up against weaker opponents the offense shined scoring 52 against South Alabama and 56 at Texas State. They have covered three straight. Nebraska is coming off a heart wrenching OT defeat to Miami where they came from behind by 3 scores in the 4th quarter and then only losing in OT. These types of herculian efforts that don't end up in a 'W' can create a playing 'hangover' in the next week - especially when facing a supposedly inferior foe. Take Southern Mississippi. |
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09-21-15 | NY Jets v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 47 | Top | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
35* graded play 'UNDER' Indianapolis/NY Jets in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that fewer than 45 points will be scored in this game. The Colts were shocked in Buffalo last week and know the history of teams that start out 0-2 to the season and greatly diminish their playoff chances. In past situations like this one, the Colts, as do many home favorites (teams that know they are the superior team) put together an aggressive game plan, but one that minimizes errors and turnovers. Luck is an elite QB that can light up a scoreboard, but that is not the goal tonight. If you are interested in a parlay for tonight, I would play the 'UNDER" and Colts minus the points for no more than a 10* amount. I also like using the 'reverse parlay' in these somewhat rare situations where I consider using a parlay. Always remember, teasers and parlays are essentially a major revenue stream for the books and a public betting trap that will NOT work out over the course of a season. As an example, the 3-team 10-point teaser is a financial life threatening proposition that can lead to very poor results over the course of a season. It is negative enough we pay a vig for the opportunity to place a wager with a book in Vegas, so don't be tempted ever to put yourself in situations with greater vigs and lower probabilities. I have the Jets graded as the best Week1 offensive performance, but this was based on a game that was largely out of hand in the second half. What I really liked was that their run defense was exceptional and I expect them to dominate the LOS tonight. Colts defense graded poor;ly against the run, but again, the best NFL teams prepare for the next opponent and make the necessary adjustments to play to full potential. I see this game being played between the 20's and with more FG made than TD scored. Take the 'UNDER'. |
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09-20-15 | Dallas Cowboys +5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in a NFC East Divisional showdown set to start at 4:25 PM ET. The Philadelphia fan faithful are legendary for the tail gating and will be more than ready for this rivalry. Why this fan base despises the Cowboys is somewhat of a mystery to me since it is not reciprocated in Dallas. The Eagles will be a playoff contender this season. Yet, I strongly believe they need to execute this offense at NFl game speed for a few more weeks to work out the 'kinks'. Execution is paramount in this system and there are tons of reads after the snap that simply need reps. This is Week 2 and although the Eagles performed better int he second half of Monday's loss to the Falcons, they are still a work in progress. As expected, the Eagles graded average in the offensive detail with neither pass or run being better than the other.  The Dallas defense did di well and they had an excellent pass rush last week. It is not how many sacks or pressures a defense gets on a QB, but how well they protect the edge and execute detail. Dallas did that well and that is certainly a big advantage for them facing Bradford. SIM shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game. Given this projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 17* play on the line and a 8* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-3 ATS mark good for 89% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - team with a poor scoring defense last season that allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Dallas is a stout  3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) when they allow 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt |
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09-20-15 | New England Patriots +1 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 40-32 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
35* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take to the road and play the Buffalo Bills. This is the next chapter in the Ryan-Bellichick endless enigma and one that will again prove quite entertaining. The SIM shows a high probability that NE will win this game by at least 6 points. In Week 1 the Patriots offense was getting into gear and ranked fifth best as detailed by our gradings. They were excellent in the pass game and had better than average pass blocking. Run blocking was average, but they do have Blount returning this week. The Bills defense was much worse than otherwise seen in the game. Their pass rush was horrid ranking third worst in Week 1. Certainly a huge advantage for Brady and the ever changing offensive game plan. Each week there emerges a new target in the Patriots offense making ti nearly impossible for any defense to fully prepare - even for a defensive guru like Ryan. Brady will have more than ample time to scan the field and the ground game will be improved from last week. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons; 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. Take the Patriots. |
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09-19-15 | Iowa State +7 v. Toledo | Top | 23-30 | Push | 0 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
35* graded play on Iowa State as they take on Toledo in NCAA gridiron action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  SIM shows a high probability that ISU will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning straight up. Given this favorable upset projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 21* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line for 26* worth of risk. This combination maximizes the probabilities that the upset will occur.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 18-9 record for 67% winners and has made an incredible 35 units/unit wagered averaging a whopping +246 DOG play since 1992. Play on road underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (IOWA ST) team with a horrible scoring defense last season that  allowed 35 or more points/game, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toledo is an imperfect  0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game over the last 2 seasons. Take Iowa State. |
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09-19-15 | South Carolina v. Georgia -17 | Top | 20-52 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Georgia as they host South Carolina in SEC Conference action set to start at 6:00 PM ET.  SIM shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by more than 21 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-16 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (GEORGIA) that was excellent rushing team from last season averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The system under scores why I am on Georgia and it is simply because of the strong ground attack. Georgia's offensive line will wear down a much smaller SC defensive front over the course of the game. I expect Georgia to have well over 300 rushing yards and 250 passing yards on 70+ plays from scrimmage. They will run about twice as much as pass and I just don't anyway SC can contain this offense. SC is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 7.5 or more total yards per play; 4-21 ATS (-19.1 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards; Georgia is a near-perfect  9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they rush for 300 or more yards since 1992; 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2.5 to 3 yards/play. Sc QB Conner Mitch injured his shoulder last game and is out indefinitely. He was the new starter QB this season to a unit retuning just 4 starters. Take the Bulldogs. |
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09-17-15 | Denver Broncos +3 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 31-24 | Win | 108 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the KC Chiefs in Thursday Night NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Denver will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. I doubt that we will see the line move to 3 1/2, but we could see the vig increase on the KC -3 line, which in turn boost the money line. I have seen Five Dimes move their money line to +157, so that is a very good line to acquire. I do think the books will follow that lead so if you can get +160 or better, then make the wager a 17* play using the line and a 8* play using the money line. Based on the complete body of research I have scanned over the past several days, I fully expect Denver to have a strong ground attack tonight that will gain at least 130 rushing yards. This in turn will allow Manning to use quick release technique to hit receivers in space. I think upon occasion you will see an extended play action type of route where Manning will fake and then take three plus steps back and scan the field. This could lead to big vertical routes and he is still very good at delivering the ball to second and third options. KC defense will be on it's heels for the majority of this game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.Denver is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. Take the Broncos. |
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09-17-15 | Clemson v. Louisville +6 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Louisville Cardinal as they host Clemson in NCAA Thursday Night action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIm shows a high probability that Louisville will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a solid opportunity to win the game and avoid starting the season at 0-3. Clemson is 2-0, but played Wofford and Appalachian State, which are teams hardly as strong as Louisville. Louisville lost to Auburn 31-24, but covered as 10 point dog. Last week they did not play well in a home loss to Houston installed as a 13 point favorite. They are not this bad a team and the home loss only makes me more confident that Louisville is going to come out play as a very desperate DOG. The large leep in strength of competitor for Clemson will be a problem as it is impossible to simulate the change of speed and strength from their first two opponents to that of Louisville. I like making this a combination wager as well comprised of a 19* play using the line and a 6* play using the money lie. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-15 mark good for 76% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEMSON) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. I do expect this to be a war and not looking for Louisville to catch Clemson sleeping. Although that would be nice. What is nice, is that in closely played games based on the stat lines, Louisville is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games when they are outgain their opponents by less than 50 yards. Take Louisville. |
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09-14-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Atlanta Falcons +3 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action on Monday Night Football set to start at 7:10 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Atlanta will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 19* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. One of the many variables I analyze is betting flows. I use 12 books and I have found that whenever one team is getting better than 70% of the wagers, it supports a play on the other team. There is certainly an irrational exuberance on the Eagles with better than 79% of all wagers on them. The line has moved up, but there are some 'sharps' taking the Falcons side and several of these came in yesterday. This is just one key variable, but it certainly supports the Falcons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 65-23 mark using the money line good for 74% winners and has made 34 units/unit wagered  since 2010. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Eagles have been just  3-19 ATS (-17.9 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt. This is the critical part of this play. The Eagles defense is the big question mark going up against a high powered offensive attack with a veteran QB. The Eagles offense appears to be in high gear based on preseason games, but they are still are untested in 'real' games. I do think the Eagles will be a playoff contender as the season evolves, but for this road tilt in Week 1, I like the Falcons to defend their house and get the win. Take the Falcons. |
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09-13-15 | Miami Dolphins v. Washington Redskins +4 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Washington Redskins as they host the Miami Dolphins set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by three or fewer points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager comprised of an 18* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line. Â The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Washington has been a solid 52-23 ATS (+26.7 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points since 1992. Miami is just 14-40 ATS (-30.0 Units) when they allow 125 to 150 rushing yards since 1992. Much media attention centered on Miami QB Tannehill having a breakout season. Yet, he is just 1-4 ATS as a road favorite in his career. I really like Kirk Cousins under center for the Redskins. do see the Redskins being able to run the ball just enough to allow Cousins to use play action to his and his team's advantage. Take the Redskins. Â |
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09-13-15 | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 v. St Louis Rams | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 12 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Seattle Seahawks as they take on the St. Louis Rams in NFL action set to start at  as they take on the  action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM shows a projection that Seattle will win this game by 6 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Seattle is a stout 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons; 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they allow less than 250 total yards over the last 3 seasons;  17-54 ATS (-42.4 Units) when they gain less than 250 total yards since 1992;  8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. When the stats are this one sided, any NFL team is going to have favorable (unfavorable) ATS results depending on what side of the game they are on. I certainly see the Seattle defense dominating the LOS and keeping the Rams in third-and-long situations. Converting these situations is a very tough one for even the best offensive teams in the NFL when facing the complexity and strength of this defensive unit. Take Seattle. |
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09-13-15 | Carolina Panthers v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 12 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Jacksonville Jaguars as they host the Carolina Panthers in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM shows a projection calling for JAX to lose this game by 3 or fewer points and also to win the game. I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. This ratio of wagers maximizes the probability that JAX will win the game. Carolina has an elite QB in Newtown, who had a great camp in the aftermath of his 103.5 million contract. However, he is without stud receiver Kelvin Benjamin, who torn his ACL. That leaves Ted Ginn Jr., who has just 83 catches while starting five games for three different teams over the last five seasons, and Corey Brown as the starters. Brown had 21 receptions as an undrafted rookie last season. Panthers will rely a ton more on TE Olsen, but JAX has the defensive personnel to cover him well. So, it is the defense that will give JAX the chance to pull off the home upset win. Further, JAX now has a ton of very good young talent that I strongly believe is going completely unnoticed.Take Jacksonville. |
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09-12-15 | Notre Dame v. Virginia +13 | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
I will have additional releases being issued this afternoon so be sure to check back. 25* graded play on Virginia as they host Notre Dame in NCAA Football action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that UVA will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a reasonable shot at pulling off a huge upset win. Last week the Irish defense was dominant over the Longhorns allowing 163 yards of offense and producing 11 3-and-out possessions. That may appear incredible, but that was against a Texas offense that I have ranked below 100th best in the nation. UVA returns five starters on offense, but they are going to be a much stiffer test for the Irish. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ND is just  17-37 ATS (-23.7 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points since 1992; 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) when they rush for 100 to 150 yards since 1992. UVA is a perfect  9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. I really see a letdown here by the Irish  after the big game last week and is demonstrated by the fact that they are just 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Take the Virginia Cavaliers. |
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09-12-15 | Minnesota v. Colorado State +5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
35* graded play on Colorado State as they take on Minnesota in NCAA gridiron action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that CSU will lose this game by less than 4 points and has a great opportunity to win the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 18* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 7-0 ATS mark the last 3 seasons and 12-1 mark fo the past five season and 24-4 ATS since 1992 good for 89% winners. 63% of the games covered the spread by 7 or more points. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (COLORADO ST) excellent passing team from last season with a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is a money burning  32-92 ATS (-69.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 7-27 ATS (-22.7 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 since 1992; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they allow 9 to 9.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. |
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09-10-15 | Louisiana Tech -1 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
25* graded play on Louisiana Tech as they take on Western Kentucky in Thursday Night NCAA Football action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. I also have a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers as they take on the New England Patriots. In summary, Big ben is a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS in games where the total is between 46 1/2 and 54 1/2 over the five seasons. Ok, on to the college report detail. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-5 ATS mark good for 84% winners since 1992. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W KENTUCKY) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 2 or more straight wins, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80% win percentage) and playing a team that had a winning record. The following game situations match te SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LT is a solid 28-6 ATS (+21.4 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points since 1992; WKU is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Take Louisiana Tech. |
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09-05-15 | Wisconsin +13 v. Alabama | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
25* graded play on Wisconsin as they take on Alabama set to kickoff at 8:00 PM ET. Sim shows a high probability that Wisconsin will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a shot at pulling off the upset. I would highly recommend making this a combination wager using a 22* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line for a total risk of 27* units. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Wisconsin is a solid 55-20 ATS (+33.0 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt since 1992; 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992. Here is the best one noting that Wisconsin is  9-1 against the money line (+8.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. It will be the massive ground attack by Wisconsin that will win this game for them and Alabama is vulnerable against big time ground attacks. They are  1-7 against the money line (-9.7 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards since 1992. They also have not faired well in shootout type games. They are just 1-3 against the money line (-18.3 Units) in road games when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The -18.3 units also reflects that they were big favorites in these games just as they are against Wisconsin tonight. Take the Badgers. |
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09-05-15 | Arizona State v. Texas A&M -3 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
25* graded play on Texas A&M as they take on Arizona State set to kickoff at 7:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that A&M will win this game by at least 6 points. A&M returns 16 starters with 8 each on offense and defense and have their QB returning as well. ASU has retunred 7 starters on offense and not their QB. They do return 9 defensive starters, but I just don't see this unit containing A&M for four quarters. This is being contested at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. So although a neutral site, it certainly will have a home game feel for the Aggies. ASU was a blitz heavy defense last season and I fully expect them to bring blitz at least 60% of the time tonight. They blitz an average of 56% in 2014. However, A&M QB Kyle Allen had a better TD/INT ratio when facing the blitz then he did not facing pressure. Slip screens will work very well against an aggressive defensive attack. Plus, look for the TE in play action in vertical routes. A&M is the play. |
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09-05-15 | Virginia v. UCLA -19 | Top | 16-34 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
25* graded play on UCLA as they take on Virginia in NCAA action set to start at  the as they take on the  action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.SIM shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game by at least 21 points. For the first time since 2002, UCLA will start a true freshman at QB in Josh Rosen, who is the No.1 ranked QB in the 2015 class. He has had tremendous practices and has excelled in scrimmages looking more like a veteran Senior signal caller than a kid fresh out of High School action. He will be well protected by an excellent offensive line and will have a strong ground attack led by Paul Perkins. He had 1575 rushing yards in 2014. The strong ground attack will set up play action for Rosen with his elite receivers in man coverage. He has the strength to stretch any defense and the vertical routes will be attacked against UVA. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-8 mark good for 81% winners since 2005.  Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UCLA) good offensive team from last season scoring 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. It has gone 20-4 ATS over the last five seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UCLA is a solid 35-12 ATS (+21.8 Units) when they allow 50 to 100 rushing yards since 1992;  31-8 ATS (+22.2 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards since 1992; 31-11 ATS (+18.9 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points since 1992; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons. Take UCLA. |
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09-05-15 | Louisville v. Auburn -10.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
35* graded play on the Auburn Tigers as they take on the Louisville Cardinal set to kick off at 3:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game by more than 13 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-8 ATS mark good for 81% winners since 2005.  Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (AUBURN) good offensive team from last season that scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. 50% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points and it has gone 20-4 over the last 5 seasons. The Auburn defense will be markedly better in 2015 having 8 returning starters from that unit. They will be going up against a Louisville offense that retunrs 5 starters including their QB. The lack of chemistry along the Louisville offensive line will allow Auburn to attack and make plays. Auburn will show blitz on nearly every play to add confusion to OL blocking assignments. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Auburn is a solid 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 22-5 ATS (+16.5 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards since 1992. Auburn has a tremendous QB in Jeremy Johnson, who is 6-5 and 240 pounds with a pro strength arm. If you like betting Heisman long shots then this is your man. Take Auburn. |
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09-04-15 | Michigan State -17.5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 37-24 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
25* graded play on Michigan State as they take on Western Michigan in NCAA Football action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  Sim shows a high probability that MSU will win this game by 21+ points.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-10 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) that is a good passing team from last season that averaged 8 or more passing yards/attempt, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season.  Of all the wagers, 54% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. Here is a second system that has gone 38-13 ATS for 75% winners since 2005.  Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, top level team from last season who won 80% or more of their games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. MSU is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 200 or more yards over the last 2 seasons; WMU is just  7-24 ATS (-19.4 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 since 1992;  4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards since 1992; 5-22 ATS (-19.2 Units) when they allow 500 or more total yards since 1992. WMU has had a great turn around to what was a dismal football program that went 1-11 in 2013. Coming off a winning season in 2014 will not be enough to make the step up in competition and face a strong Big Ten Conference foe. MSU is just too deep at the skill positions for WMU to be able to contain for four quarters. MSU offensive line is going to wear down the smaller sized WMU defensive front and will set up play action pass plays in man coverages. Take Michigan State. |
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09-03-15 | TCU -14.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
25* graded play on TCU as they take on Minnesota in CFB action set to start  as they take on the  action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that TCU will win this game by more than 17 points. TCU returns 10 offensive starters including their QB and this will be a huge advantage for them in this matchup. During the first month of the CFB season, teams returning all but one starter on either side of the ball have the experience and continuity of the previous season working for them. This is most notable on offensive lines where chemistry is major quality of excellent offensive units. Of course there are the Alabama's and Ohio State's of the NCAA world that simply reload with elite talent and offset the lack of experience quickly. TCU is an elite team and based on my power ratings from the SIM, they would be 9 point dogs to Alabama on a neutral field. So, I strongly believe that Minnesota will have a very tough time just containing the TCU powerhouse. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-4 ATS mark good for 86% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TCU) and is a top level team from last season who won 80% or more of their games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. 46% of these plays covered the spread by more than 7 points. Here is a second system that has gone 32-9 ATS for 78% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TCU) good passing team from last season that averaged 8 or more passing yards/attempt, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season. 55% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. Here is a third powerhouse system that has gone 34-7 ATS for 83% winners since 2005 and has gone 14-2 ATS over the last three seasons. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TCU) good offensive team from last season scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TCU is a very strong 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 44-6 ATS (+37.4 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992. Minnesota is just 32-92 ATS (-69.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992;  7-27 ATS (-22.7 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 since 1992;  2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards since 1992. Take TCU. |
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09-03-15 | South Carolina v. North Carolina +2 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
25* graded play on North Carolina as they take on South Carolina in NCAA Football action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that UNC will win this game. The line is at -2 1/2 favoring SC. Unless the line gets to -3, there is no opportunity to do a combination wager. If it does climb to 3, then consider making a 19* play on the line and a 6* play using the money line to exploit the upset potential of this matchup. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Extremely high probability that UNC will score more than 28 points. SC is just 20-67 ATS (-53.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points since 1992; UNC is a solid 82-34 ATS (+44.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. UNC returns 10 starts and their QB on offense and this is a monumental advantage for them in this matchup. The offensive line benefits the most form the past game experience and their blocking schemes and assignments are executed at a very high level. SC has just four returning starters on offense and their learning curve will take time even with Spurrier as the teacher. Take UNC tonight. |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 98 h 37 m | Show |
50* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 7 or more points. I'll discuss the technicals supporting New England first and then move on to the specific fundamentals. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-16 mark using the Money Line and has made 24.2 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play on any team using the money line (NEW ENGLAND) after two consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers. Here is a second system working against Seattle and has produced a 31-14 mark for 69% winners using the money line and has made 20 units/unit wagered since 2004. Play against all teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (SEATTLE) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are a solid 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992; 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) off 1 or more straight 'overs' this season; 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored this season; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when facing excellent offensive teams averaging >=375 yards/game over the last three seasons;  7-1 against the money line (+6.3 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons; 15-5 against the money line (+9.9 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons; Seattle is just  2-7 against the money line (-8.8 Units) in road games when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Now, we will take a look at the fundamentals that support New England. Based on the overall offensive efficiency grades, Patriots rank 11th and Seattle 13th. However, the Patriots are fourth in the passing game while Seattle is 13th. Running grades see Patriots 9th and Seattle number 1 in the NFL. Obviously with Seattle utilizing the 'read option' offensive scheme you would expect to see them in this position. What I find very revealing is that the Patriots have graded modestly higher in overall defensive efficiency and this is where the game will be won. Seattle certainly has the better pass rush, but this is minimized by Brady's abilities to hit receivers very quickly in space. What the Patriots lack in pass rush, they more than make up in run and coverage defense grades. One of the reasons, the Patriots pass rush grade is not significantly higher is the simple fact that Vince Wilfork is not a QB chaser. Instead he clogs the middle of the line and pushes lineman up into the pocket, which in turn gives little room, if any, for opposing QB to step up and throw down field. This has been highly effective and augments the elite level of play by two of the best ILB in the NFL in Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins. They rank second and third respectively in overall grades for their position and are playing at their highest level right now. This defensive unit held the Colts to just 7 points. Then you add the secondary strong play led by Revis, McCourty, and Chung and I can easily see Seattle struggling on offense. Defending the 'read option' requires preparation and position discipline both of which are what the Patriots truly excel at and have done so every season. Now, back to the offensive side and TE Gronkowski is by far the best TE in the NFL season. He is a matchup nightmare and Seattle is very vulnerable in play action and in man coverage. I definitely believe the Patriots will spread the field and have formations with Vareen and Gronkowski individually moving pre-snap in order to get the best matchup. Even in stacked formations with two TE, the Patriots will have ample opportunity to complete passes and move the chains. Take New England. Now for your prop bets: Brady 'over' 260 1/2 passing yards. Brady 'over 23 1/2 completions Blount 'over' 62 1/2 rushing yards. Total number of players making a pass attempt 'over' 2 1/2 (Need both QB's and either a option pass or a back-up QB to make a pass. |
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01-18-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots UNDER 54 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
50* graded play 'UNDER' when the New England Patriots as host Indianapolis in the AFC Championship game set to start at 6:40 PM ET. I also like the Patriots as a 25* play and would suggest making a 10+ parlay using the Patriots and the 'under'. I would have released this Thursday had it not been for the uncertain weather conditions in Foxborough and the Boston area. Weather can change quickly in this are, especially this time of year. So, rain will be in the forecast and could be extremely heavy drenching rain with winds. I had this play graded as a 50* play prior to the weather forecast and I do feel confident that the weather will support the 'under'. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 44 points will scored and the Patriots will win the game by 9 or more points. In 16 games where Andrew Luck has been installed as a road dog, his offensive production has led to just 19.3 PPG and his defense as allowed 30 PPG. He is 6-10 ATS as a road under dog in his career. Further, the Colts are 5-2 'under' in seven games when facing teams with win percentages between 71 and 81% in the Luck era; 22-13 'under' when facing defenses allowing 5.7 to 7.7 yards per attempt. Patriots defense will show Luck new looks pre-snap that can either fully disguise the post-snap defense or go with what is shown. Luck will never quite know if it is a Belichick bluff or no bluff call. Vince Wilfork’s quickness and explosiveness would be impressive for a man half his size. He uses his massive frame, super strength, and surprisingly nimble feet to set up roadblocks, shed blockers, and cave in ball carriers. Jamie Collins is playing at a very high level and his best single game was against the Colts in Week 11 where he had six stops, six tackles, and 1 QB hurry. The Colts offensive line has not graded well at any point this season. Luck's ability to extend plays has masked some of the real problems along the OL. Only LT Castanzo has a positive grading for the season. Yet, he had five games with negative grades in run blocking this season. Simply, there will be plenty of room for the Patriot elite linebackers led by Collins and Hightower, to find the QB or ball carrier. On the offensive side, the Patriots have 6 active RB on the roster. Jonas Gray went wild against the Colts in Week 11, but it is truly the diversity that this group brings that will make it very difficult for the Colts to defend. Blount is the power pounding RB. Shane Vareen played 41 snaps and 39 of those snaps were pass plays in last week's win. Then add Gray, Bolden, and White to the fray and you can immediately see how difficult it would be for the defense to guess what type of play has been called. I also see Edelman getting one or two attempts on jet sweeps adding more uncertainty for the defense to consider. So, Patriots will control the tempo and attain a significant edge in TOP. Take the 'under' for a 50* play, Patriots for a 25* play and 10* parlay with Patriots and 'under'. |
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01-18-15 | Green Bay Packers +7 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 70 h 52 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Green Bay packers as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship game set to start at 3:05 PM ET. Last week the Packers essentially escaped with a win over the Dallas Cowboys. Based on my overall gradings, they were the two best offensive units in the NFL. Now, only the Packers, second-best, are left and they have enough fire power to get the job done. When I say they escaped, it has nothing to do with the Dez Bryant 'catch', but rather the poor execution by Green Bay standards overall. Seattle has the best ground attack remaining, but the passing game has been far more important in Conference Championship games in recent years. We saw last week, New England advance with just 14 rushing yards. In fact all four winners in last week's Divisional Round lost the rushing stats. There is a dichotomy with the reasoning that you need defense and a big time ground game to win. However, the truth is that since 1970, when a team out gains the opponent by any margin on a per-pass basis, they have won 74% of the games. Fine tuning this theme, teams that push that margin to more than 2 yards win 90% of the regular season games. That translates to a 505-59 mark. In the post season, teams that post a margin of 2.0 or greater win 92% of the games for an outstanding 22-2 mark since 2010. Three of the top-4 defenses are out of the playoffs with No.1 ranked Denver, No. 2 Baltimore, and No. 4 Detroit all  losing. Third ranked Seattle is the top defense left. Now, the Seattle defense has been inconsistent in stopping the run. This does not mean I am changing my theme. Green Bay will be able to run the play enough for Seattle to respect and then Rogers will have even greater opportunity to connect on vertical routes off play action and in man coverage. On the defensive side, Green Bay has struggled to stop the run. However, they do have the personnel and athleticism to contain Seattle from executing big plays. This means Seattle will post long time consuming drives while Green Bay will have big play striking potential on any down and situation. Rogers is the best overall graded QB in my rankings and by a significant amount over second-best Drew Brees. By comparison, Wilson ranks 13th-best overall and ranks 17th as a passer with a NFL-best run grade. So, I see Rogers dominating this game despite the calf injury and getting the Packers into position to advance to the Super Bowl. The simulator shows a high probability that Green Bay will lose this game by fewer than 4 points. I like making this a combination wager using a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-20 ATS mark for 69% winners since 2004. Play on underdogs or pick (GREEN BAY) that are excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt and after gaining seven or more passing yards/attempt in three straight games. Of the total plays made, 44% of them covered the spread by seven or more points. Last, but not least, McCarthy is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game as the coach of the Green Bay Packers. |
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01-12-15 | Ohio State +7 v. Oregon | Top | 42-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
50* graded play on Ohio State as they take on Oregon in the NCAA National Championship game set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Ohio State will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 44* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Broadly speaking, the biggest difference between these two elite programs is the simple fact that Ohio State has a vastly better defense than Oregon. Both teams have played an exact SOS this season so the national rankings are a fair comparison. Oregon ranks 29th in scoring defense (23 PPG), 84th in opponent yards per game (426), 53rd in allowed yards-per-play (5.3), and 75th in third down conversion allowed (42%). Ohio State ranks 19th allowing 22.1 PPG, 11th in yards allowed (333), 11th in allowed yards per play (4.7), and 22nd in third down conversions allowed (35%). Another major factor in this matchup is coaching where Ohio State Head coach Meyer has had 11 experiences at this level while Helfrich is in his first National Championship game. The venue is at Jerry's Palace and the media will be overwhelming. At the College Football level, coaching is monumentally more important in big games, then at the NFL level. The simple fact that the Ohio State players can fully trust everything that Meyer tells his team in order to prepare them cannot be over stated. Here are coaching trends that support Ohio State. Meyer is a solid 39-13 ATS (+24.7 Units) after playing a non-conference game in all games he has coached; 42-13 ATS (+27.7 Units) in non-conference games in all games he has coached; 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) off an upset win as an underdog in all games he has coached; 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) facing excellent teams outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season in all games he has coached. Looking at the injury report we see Oho State's Dontre Wilson and Jeff Heuerman as probable. Yet, on the Oregon side of the report, we see two suspensions and several other possible suspensions yet to be confirmed.  This is a clear sign of team distractions and uncertainty in a game where these conditions are magnified greatly. Ohio State QB Cardale Jones may have inexperience, but he is well supported by an excellent offensive line and numerous weapons. He has played in big games already and has posted a QBR of 159 with 7 TD and 1 INT. He is a big strong athletic QB standing 6-5 and weighing 250 pounds. He is bigger than all of the Oregon LB and arguably stronger. So, he is going to very tough to bring down when running in space or using his legs to extend plays. My conclusion is that Ohio State will wear down the smaller Oregon defense in producing long time consuming drives. Let's now take a look at the technical picture. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-32 mark using the Money Line, but has made a whopping 53 units/unit wagered since 1992.  Play against neutral field favorites using the money line (OREGON) that is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/play and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. This system has averaged a +292 DOG play. The winning percentage of 48% is irrelevant and the units won is all that truly matters with a powerful Money Line system. This is analogous to playing Black Jack at the casino and having essentially a 50/50 chance of winning each hand played. However, in this system, a winning hand pays of nearly 3:1 and this reflects the power of identifying DOGS that are projected to cover easily and also has a better than 55% probability of achieving the upset win. Take Ohio State. |
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01-11-15 | Dallas Cowboys +6 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
50* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Divisional Round set to start at 1:00 PM ET. (Your bonus 25* play is on the Denver Broncos). The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will lose this game by fewer than four points and has an outstanding shot at winning the winning the game. Given this favorable projection I suggest making this a combination wager using a 40* play on the line and a 10* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-20 ATS mark for 69% winners since 2004. Play on underdogs or pick (DALLAS) that are excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt and after gaining seven or more passing yards/attempt in three straight games. Nearly 50% of all of the games played based on the criteria of the system have covered the spread by 7 or more points. There are some high-powered coaching trends supporting Dallas. Garrett is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game. Last piece of evidence on the technical side is a money line system that has produced a very strong 32-12 mark for 73% winners and averaged a +118 DOG play since 2004. Further, this money line system has gone 5-2 making 4.8 units this season. Play against home teams using the money line (GREEN BAY) after three consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after three consecutive game where they committed one or less turnovers. Based on the overall gradings, the Cowboys have the best offense in the NFL and is a big reason they have gone 8-0 in road games this season. Green Bay grades out at second-best offensive team, but are pass heavy while Dallas has a much more balanced and varied attack. The Dallas offensive line is the best in the NFL. They have an excellent LT in Tyron Smith, who grades in the top-5 at his position in the majority of categories. He will minimize any impact that LB Clay Matthews tries to muster up. I see Mathews being completed dominated by Smith. Perhaps the best player of this elite unit is C Travis Frederick, who grades second-best at his position and a league-leading best in run blocking. Green Bay has struggled to stop the run ranking fourth-worst in the NFL. In order to stop a strong running game, the defense must get penetration up field to disrupt the zone/gap blocking schemes and prevent the OL from getting to the second layer of defense. I don't see Green Bay being able to this without using a safety or DB in the box. The real danger for Green Bay is to blitz gaps where Romo can get the ball out quickly to Witten in space. Then there is WR Dez Bryant, who ranks second-best in his position and has more catches and yards then the rest of the WR on his team combined. Take the Dallas Cowboys. |
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01-10-15 | Carolina Panthers +11.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Carolina Panthers as they take on the Seattle Seahawks in NFL Divisional playoff action set to start at 8:15 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will lose this game by 8 or fewer points and also has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I suggest making this a combination wager comprised of a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-22 ATS mark for 70% winners since 1983. It has gone 4-0 ATS over the past three seasons. Nearly half of these plays since 1983 have covered the spread by 7 or more points. Play against favorites of 10.5 or more points (SEATTLE) outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. Further, Carolina is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons; Â 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons. Rivera is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Carolina has evolved into a very strong team during the second half of the season. The OL will be at full strength with the return of Mike Remmers at RT and withByron Bell at LT. Remmers has had some ups and downs but overall shows vast improvement and stability as he has given up just six hurries and one hit in six games this season and his +3.2 pass blocking grade is encouraging for Carolina. Kelvin Benjamin is a big target with gifted athleticism and I fully expect a huge game from him tonight. Of rookie WR, he ranks second-most with 948 offensive snaps and third in receiving yards with 1,008. He did extremely well against Sherman in Week 8 Â and this will be the big story should Carolina pull off the upset. His play will be further augmented by the strong running attack led by Jonathon Stewart. Over the last six weeks, he ranks best in the NFL in overall grading with 610 yards and 323 yards after contact. Then on the defensive side, the emergence of safety Tre Boston, who was inserted in the starting lineup in Week 14 has put up some obscene numbers. During this span he has allowed a QB rating of just 13. I also see DT Kawann Short having another huge game in this matchup. During the Panthers winning streak, he recorded 4 sacks in the last 5 games, while getting just 1 sack in the first 12 games. My report would be complete if not mentioning the defensive MVP-type play of Luke Kuechly at LB. It will be loud in Seattle, but Cam Newton has show great leadership and has played in some very big games with significant noise factors in his past. I really like Carolina! |
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01-10-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they host Baltimore in the AFC Divisional Round of the playoffs set to start at 4:25 PM ET. Let's take a look at a few of the fundamental matchups I see the Patriots having a dominate edge. Of course, a first look at the relationship between Gronk and Brady is huge and overpowering. Gronk is having by far his best season since the 2011 campaign. With a position-leading 1,124 receiving yards on 124 targets he has become a solid target for Brady in any down-and-situation anywhere on the field. He has also proved elusive with 460 yards after the catch ranking third-best at his position. The Ravens secondary has been inconsistent for most of the season, but the emergence of DB Will Hill has put more cohesiveness to this unit.  Hill is the best Ravens DB and I fully expect him to be assigned to Gronk given his size and speed. However, this matchup will then give Brady plenty of opportunities to hit his other reliable weapons in space in man-coverages. Starting with Edelman, who has caught 75% of his targets with 92 catches, then Lafell, then the stable of RB (Vareen, Blount, Bolden, and Gray), the Patriots just have far too many weapons for any defense to contain effectively over 60 minutes. The Patriots OL is not a dominating one and their weaknesses have been shadowed by Brady's quick release (2.34 second) good for fourth quickest in the NFL. This all but eliminates the Ravens pressure schemes as they cannot fall prey to the bubble screens that the Patriots run to near perfection. The screens are what the Patriots OL do best.  The Ravens like to run the ball with power between the tackles and then to attack the perimeter. However, they are matched against one of the best tackles in Vince Wilfork. His ability to glog the middle of the LOS and to push double team situations up the field also negates Flaccos abilities to step up in the pocket and make throws. Brady and the offense get the accolades in the media, but quite frankly the defensive unit is better and has steadily improved over the course of the season. Their LB corp led by Collins and Hightower are among the best in the NFL and the secondary led by Revis, McCourty, and Chung are playing together at elite levels. The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 9 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 52-22 ATS mark for 70% winners since 2004. Play on home teams (NEW ENGLAND) after scoring nine points or less last game and is now facing an opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. Of the 74 plays made based on the criteria of the system 39% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. There are several game situations supporting the Patriots noting they are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons;  12-3 ATS in home games after having won five or six out of their last seven games over the last three seasons; 10-2 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last two seasons;  8-1 ATS in home games when facing solid passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last two seasons; 6-0 ATS in home games facing solid offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game in games played over the last 2 seasons.  Take the Patriots. |
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01-04-15 | Detroit Lions v. Dallas Cowboys -6 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Detroit Lion sin NFC Wild Card Playoff action set to start at 4:35 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 10 or more points. I will start with the fact that Suh is starting since he won his appeal. However, the fact is that he is NOT the best defensive tackle in the game. We have him graded as 5th against the run and 6th against the pass. Further, he has struggled in both categories against well balanced offensive attacks. Dallas is certainly that type of attack and can also light the scoreboard up quickly. Detroit has an excellent safety in Glover Quin, who leads all safeties with seven interceptions and the third-highest pass coverage grade. yet, Dallas with Romo have ben able to attack the defensive perimeter consistently and this forces safeties to 'cheat' to one side anticipating the go route or double move. This will be slanted toward the side of the field that Bryant is on. Bryant has led all WR in several categories since Week 10 including deep passing catching % (79% and 367 yards). I also think that the secondary receivers will have some excellent man coverage opportunities to create space where Romo can deliver the ball quickly and in space. Dallas Guard Zack Martin has steadily been playing at an elite level allowing only 10 QB pressures and ZERO sacks for the season. Last, Romo ranks second-best in the NFL in QBR and is best with 8.52 yards-per-attempt. Then there is the power and elusive running of Murray for the Lions to contend. I just can't see them consistently stopping both over the entire four quarters. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-16 ATS mark for 71.4% winners since 1983. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DALLAS) that are excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better and after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. Here is a second system that has gone 43-17 ATS for 72% winners since 2004.  Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. Detroit is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons;  3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. Take the Dallas Cowboys. |
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01-03-15 | Baltimore Ravens +4 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Baltimore Ravens as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs. This game is set to start at 8:15 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Ravens will win this game. Now, before we get to the nuts and bolts of this play, I'd like to address the Bell situation. He was declared 'OUT" for this game and this is a monumental loss for the Steelers. Normally, there is a second or even third string RB that can get the job done. However, Bell accounted for 77% of the team's rushing ayrds. This mark is second only to Murray, who has accounted for 78.4% of Dallas' rushing yards. The drop off is sizable with undrafted free agent Josh Harris expected to fill the position. Ben Tate is on the depth chart and he was signed by the Steelers this past Tuesday. So, i expect the Steelers to use a RB committee and still to continue to run the ball. So, based on talent alone the loss is huge, BUT remember there are 11 players on each unit. No matter the line, the play here on Baltimore is valid. I fully expect the Ravens to have a solid day on offense. They are projected to gain 6.0 or more yards per play. In past games, they are 5-1 ATS this season and 46-19 ATS since 1992 when they have achieved this level of offensive production. I also see them gaining between 7.5 and 8.0 net passing yards. In past games, the Steelers are just 0-2 ATS this season and 1-5 ATS the last three seasons when allowing this range of net passing yards. Now, the Ravens have injuries of their own, but I am confident the OL will be in excellent shape for this matchup. No question, James Hurst is the weakest link on the OL. However, Marshal Yanda is the BEST run blocker at his position in the NFL based on a 34.2 grading and 44 overall grading. In summary, I strongly believe the OL will do a great job in pass and run blocking. On the technical side we see that the Ravens are on a very nice 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons. Harbaugh is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. Rake Baltimore. |
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01-02-15 | UCLA -118 v. Kansas State | Top | 40-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
25* graded play on the UCLA Bruins as they take on Kansas State in the Alamo Bowl set to start at 6:45 PM ET. Â The simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game by 4 or more points. Of the numerous projections supporting UCLA, the one that really stands out is that they will score at least 28 points. In past games, UCLA is a remarkable 20-3 against the money line (+15.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. K-State has been a money burning 16-56 against the money line (-90.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992.So, with the skinny line, you can easily play the money line and anticipate the UCLA win. I am seeing lines in the -118 to -123 range and there is a possibility this line could move to -115. Yet, getting -120 is a solid investment to make on UCLA. On the coaching side we see that Mora Jr is 10-2 ATS when playing against a good team winning between 60% to 75% of their games as the coach of UCLA. K-State runs a zone-read offensive scheme led by duel-threat QB Jake Waters. He has put together very nice numbers over his last three games completing 74% of his passes averaging 331.3 passing yards. However, UCLA has the defense to contain and even dominate a zone-read scheme. This is most evident when UCLA held Arizona to season lows in their dominating win. K-State has an elite WR in Tyler Lockett, who has 93 catches and 1351 receiving yards on the season. Yet, he can't win this game by himself. UCLA has an elite QB heading for the Pros in Brett Hundley, who has completed 70.4% of his passes for 3019 yards, 21 TD and just 5 INT on the season. He is also a duel threat leader as he is second on the team in rushing yards with 478 on the season. He is extremely smart in his decision making and has thrown an interception on just 1.46% of his drops. That ranks 8th best in the nation. His biggest fault might be that he holds the ball too long and tries to extend plays too often. Bruins rank 116th in sacks allowed (8.46%). However, this should be a weakness easily contained by the Bruins. K-State does not have a ferocious pass rush and rank 90th in sack percentage (5.05%). RB Paul Perkins, who had a great season in his own right will be highly successful in this matchup. Then Hundley can use play action and simple rollout designed plays for vertical routes that always stretch defenses. UCLA has 7 pass catchers with at least 22 catches on the season. The two go-to targets have been Payton (63,896) and Devin Fuller (57, 428). Take UCLA. |
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01-01-15 | Florida State +8 v. Oregon | Top | 20-59 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
50* graded play on the Florida State Seminoles as they take on Oregon in the Rose Bowl set to start at 5:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. As we did with the 50* GOY winner on NC State, a combination wager is an excellent investment with an excellent risk/reward and total rate of return profile. Â So, consider making a 42* play on the line and then add an 8* play using the money line. Let's first look at the technical readings supporting FSU. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-19 ATS mark for 71% winners since 1992. Play on any team (FLORIDA ST) that that is a modest rushing team gaining between 100 to 140 RY/G and is now facing an average rushing defense allowing between 140 and 190 RY/G) after 7+ games, and in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. I believe the FSU ground attack will be highly successful and will serve to generate a significant advantage in TOP. Clearly, FSU cannot get into a shootout type of game against Oregon. Further, FSU is 1-7 ATS L3 seasons and just 9-44 ATS since 1992 when allowing an opponent 28 or more points. So, I point that out ONLY because I am extremely confident that Oregon will not score 28 or more points. Note too, that Oregon is a money burning 4-11 against the money line (-12.1 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 total yards per play since 1992; Additionally, FSU is a very solid 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992; 12-22 against the money line (-18.9 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992. Overall, Oregon is barely in the TOP-50 in defensive efficiency. They rank 52nd allowing 5.2 yards-per-play and 65th in third down conversions allowed (41%). FSU ranks 27th gaining 6.2 yards-per-play and 15th posting a 0.498 points-per-play ratio. Plus, FSU has arguably the best FG kicker in the game in Robert Aguayo, who has connected ton 25 of 27 FG attempted with an enormous leg. It may come down to him and I love FSU's chances with the game on the line for game winning FG. Take Florida State. |
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