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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-26-24 | Clippers v. Mavs OVER 209 | Top | 90-101 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 51 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 8 pm et on Friday. The first two games in this series both stayed 'under' the total. In fact, neither contest came close to toppling the total and as a result we're working with a much lower number in Game 3 on Friday. I see a catalyst for change at work here as the scene shifts to Dallas. I certainly don't expect either team to shoot as poorly as they did in Games 1 and 2. Note that the 'over' is 26-23 in the Clippers last 49 games after giving up 100 points or less in their previous contest including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 25-21 with the Clips coming off a game where they scored 100 points or less including a 5-3 record this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 45-37 in the Mavericks last 82 contests as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points including a 17-13 mark in that situation this season. The two regular season meetings between these two teams here in Dallas totalled 270 and 231 points. Take the over (10*). |
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04-26-24 | Guardians v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. The Braves are coming off a string of low-scoring games but I look for a different story to unfold as we see a battle of southpaw starting pitchers in Logan Allen and Chris Sale. The Guardians aren't known for their offense but they've been on a tear against left-handed pitching this season, ranking third in the majors with an .826 OPS. The Braves are just two spots behind them with a .793 OPS against lefties. Of course, it hasn't really mattered who Atlanta has faced at home - the Braves rank second in baseball with an .804 home OPS. Logan Allen continues to labor through his second big league season with a 5.50 FIP and 1.39 WHIP in five starts. Chris Sale has fared much better for the Braves, sporting a 3.39 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. With his durability always in question, I do think some regression is in order for the veteran left-hander. Take the over (10*). |
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04-26-24 | Cardinals v. Mets UNDER 8 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and New York at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Neither of these offenses have impressed me all that much in the early going this season and I think the starting pitching matchup serves our purposes well on Friday night in Queens. Miles Mikolas had a terrific Spring for the Cardinals but that hasn't carried over to the regular season as he checks in sporting a FIP north of five. This might be just the matchup to get him back on track, however. Note that current Mets hitters have gone 32-for-137 off of him with just 12 extra base hits. Only D.J. Stewart and Tyrone Taylor have managed to take Mikolas deep. Of note, Pete Alonso is just 2-for-12 off of Mikolas with a pair of singles. Mets starter Jose Butto has been terrific through three starts this season, sporting a 2.59 FIP and 1.04 WHIP. No current Cardinals hitter has seen Butto before. Both bullpens have been serviceable in the early going, particularly when holding leads (15 converted saves and only five blown combined). Take the under (8*). |
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04-25-24 | Nuggets v. Lakers +1.5 | 112-105 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Denver at 10 pm et on Thursday. Most have already advanced the Nuggets past the Lakers as they head to Los Angeles with a commanding 2-0 series lead. In fact, we're already hearing talk of Denver's impending championship repeat. Usually when that starts happening, the team runs into some trouble and I expect that to be the case with the Nuggets on Thursday. Note that Denver is just 19-23 ATS in its last 42 road games with the line set between +3 and -3 including a 5-8 ATS mark this season. The Nuggets are also 24-42 ATS in their last 66 contests following three straight wins, going 7-15 ATS in that situation this season. The Lakers are 12-10 ATS in their last 22 games following consecutive road losses including a 3-2 ATS mark in that spot this season. They're also 31-20 ATS in their last 51 contests after scoring 105 points or less in their previous game, as is the case here, including an 8-2 ATS record in that situation this season. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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04-25-24 | Knicks v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 36 h 42 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Knicks held serve at home, winning each of the first two games in this series to head to Philadelphia ahead 2-0. I still think the potential is there for this to be a long series and look for the 76ers to bounce back in Game 3. With that being said, it's worth noting that the Knicks have gone 1-17 ATS in their 18 road losses this season. New York is a long-term 39-54 ATS when coming off a home win by three points or less including a 3-6 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons and 1-2 ATS this season. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 62-49 ATS in its last 111 contests as a home favorite including a 21-12 ATS record this season. The 76ers are also 31-23 ATS in their last 54 games following a road loss including a 13-6 ATS mark this season. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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04-25-24 | Phillies v. Reds UNDER 8 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring contest between these two teams last night as the Reds took a second straight win in the series by a score of 7-4. I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair in Thursday's series finale. Zack Wheeler will take the ball for Philadelphia. He went six innings allowing just one earned run while striking out 10 against the Reds back on April 3rd. Wheeler checks in sporting a 2.42 FIP and 0.89 WHIP this season. Nick Martinez has had a run of tough luck for the Reds in his first two starts this season. While his ERA approaches five his FIP sits at a respectable 2.98. Behind Martinez is a Reds bullpen that has been quietly impressive this season, particularly at home where it entered last night's action sporting a collective 3.15 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Take the under (8*). |
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04-25-24 | Brewers v. Pirates OVER 7 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. I think 'under' bettors may have been lulled into a false sense of security after three straight low-scoring games to open this series. While this starting pitching matchup looks to be a good one on paper, the fact is both lineups have enjoyed considerable success against their opponent. Current Pirates hitters are 21-for-70 off of Freddy Peralta with Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen and Ke'Bryan Hayes all taking him deep. Meanwhile, current Brewers hitters are 17-for-44 off of Mitch Keller with four different players taking him out of the park. Neither team has had a day off in the last week and given the close nature of recent games you have to figure both bullpens are somewhat depleted. I'll take my chances with the 'over' at such a low posted total. Take the over (8*). |
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04-24-24 | Kings +169 v. Oilers | 5-4 | Win | 169 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Edmonton at 10 pm et on Wednesday. The Kings got schooled in the opener of this series on Monday, allowing seven goals in a lopsided defeat. I do think we see them bounce back in Game 2 on Wednesday, noting they've gone 48-33 (+16.2 net games) when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. Over the same stretch, Los Angeles has gone 10-7 (+4.2 net games) in triple-revenge situations, as is the case here. The Oilers are 9-16 (-18.4 net games) after giving up four goals or more in their previous contest this season. They're also just 10-11 (-9.4 net games) after scoring five goals or more in their previous game this season. All is not lost for the Kings following that setback in Game 1. For road teams in the first two games of a playoff series, it's always all about earning a split at the very least. I'm confident the Kings can accomplish that on Wednesday and we're being offered a generous return. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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04-24-24 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring contest between these two teams last night as the Mariners cruised to a 4-0 victory behind another strong pitching performance from Logan Gilbert. I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday as Seattle sends Bryce Miller to the hill against veteran Jon Gray of Texas. Miller hasn't fared well in limited work against the Rangers, allowing their current hitters to collect 10 hits in 25 at-bats with five of those knocks going for extra bases and three for home runs. Not only that but Miller has recorded only a 3:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio against them. The Mariners bullpen has been terrific but Miller is generally good for five or six innings and I expect the Rangers to get their opportunities against him. Jon Gray has held up reasonably well in the early going this season but I do think regression is on the way. Note that current Mariners hitters are just 14-for-88 against him but Mitch Haniger is 2-for-6 with a pair of home runs and Ty France and Julio Rodriguez have both gone deep against him as well. In fact, of the 10 Mariners hitters that have faced him all but two have collected at least a hit. Note that Gray has worked five innings or less in seven of his last nine starts so there's a good chance we'll see plenty of the Rangers bullpen. Texas relievers entered this series sporting a collective 4.86 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-24-24 | Astros v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. This one sets up as a back-and-forth high-scoring game as the Astros send rookie Spencer Arrighetti to the mound against Jameson Taillon of the Cubs. Arrighetti is in the Houston starting rotation out of necessity only with Cristian Javier joining Framber Valdez on the shelf. The rookie has made two starts and labored through both, recording a 3.44 FIP (that number has only been held in check by the fact that he's yet to allow a home run) and 2.29 WHIP. Behind Arrighetti is an Astros bullpen that has been among the worst in baseball this season. Entering last night's action, Houston relievers had recorded a collective 5.36 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with only two saves converted and six blown. The Cubs entered this series averaging 6.2 runs per game at home this season and scored seven runs in last night's victory. Taillon faces the tall task of silencing the Astros bats. I say it's a tall task because he has struggled mightily against current Houston hitters, allowing them to go 27-for-78 with 12 extra-base hits. Not only that but he has recorded just eight strikeouts while walking six against current Astros hitters. The Cubs bullpen has posted solid overall numbers but can be had in the later innings, as evidenced by the fact that it has converted five saves while also blowing five. Take the over (8*). |
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04-23-24 | Mavs -2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 96-93 | Win | 100 | 40 h 46 m | Show |
Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. One record-setting poor shooting quarter effectively sunk the Mavericks in the opener of this series on Sunday. Dallas didn't get off to the start it had hoped for in that contest but still had hope after trailing by 12 points following the first quarter. From there it was a 22-8 second frame in favor of the Clippers and that was essentially that for Game 1. With that being said, the Mavs did show some fight, ultimately making the final score respectable thanks to a hot shooting second half. I do think we'll see them carry over some of the positive momentum from that strong second half in Game 2 on Tuesday. As indicated by the line, the Mavs are still the superior team in this matchup and check in 29-18 ATS in their last 47 games as a road favorite of six points or less including a 15-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Clips are just 12-16 ATS in their last 28 contests as a home underdog including a 2-4 ATS record this season. Take Dallas (10*). |
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04-23-24 | Avalanche v. Jets UNDER 6.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Winnipeg at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair to open this series on Sunday. I don't think either coach came away particularly pleased, even if Rick Bowness had to be happy that his team did come away victorious. Look for a much different style of game to unfold in Game 2 on Tuesday, noting that the 'under' is 42-24 with the Avalanche seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent including a 13-8 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 8-2 in the Jets last 10 contests when coming off four straight 'over' results including a 2-0 mark this season. Keep in mind, the Jets check in having allowed just 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season. They'll most definitely get some push-back from the Avs here but I think it lends itself to a lower-scoring affair. Take the under (8*). |
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04-23-24 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams last night and I expect more of the same on Tuesday. Luis Severino entered the season with rather low expectations as he made the move from the Bronx to Queens to join the Mets. However, the veteran right-hander had a terrific Spring and has picked up where he left off in the regular season, recording a serviceable 3.70 FIP and 1.38 WHIP. The Giants don't have a lot to go on against Severino as their current hitters are a combined 2-for-28 against him with a pair of singles. Behind Severino is a Mets bullpen that entered this series among the best in baseball, sporting a collective 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Giants ace Logan Webb has been terrific in the early going this season, posting a 2.85 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 30 2/3 innings of work. Webb is capable of giving the Giants seven-plus quality innings on any given night and he draws a favorable matchup here as current Mets hitters are 13-for-73 against him with only four extra-base hits. Pete Alonso has homered off of Webb but is just 1-for-11 against him. The Giants bullpen hasn't been great this season but again that's not as much of a concern with Webb starting as they may only be asked to piece together an inning or two. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-24 | Kings v. Oilers UNDER 6 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Edmonton at 10 pm et on Monday. When you think of the Edmonton Oilers, low-scoring games aren't necessarily the first thing that comes to mind. With that being said, the Oilers have recorded an 18-20-3 o/u record on home ice this season and the 'under' is a perfect 4-0 in their last four meetings with the Kings. Los Angeles has posted a 13-26-2 o/u mark on the road this season with an average total of just 5.7 goals scored. Note that the 'under' is 61-50 in the Kings last 111 contests following an 'over' result including an 18-12 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 38-33 in Los Angeles' last 71 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored four goals or more, which is the situation here, including a 16-10 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 21-18 in Edmonton's last 39 games following a loss by three goals or more, as is the case here, including an 8-6 mark this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-24 | Blue Jays v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 109 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Kansas City at 7:40 pm et on Monday. This one sets up as a well-pitched affair between the Blue Jays and Royals at Kauffman Stadium on Monday. Yusei Kikuchi had an awful Spring for the Blue Jays but has had no such trouble in his first four regular season starts, recording a 2.24 FIP and 1.15 WHIP in 21 2/3 innings of work. Current Royals hitters have combined to go 7-for-35 against him with just three extra-base hits. Bobby Witt Jr. is 0-for-4 against Kikuchi with a pair of strikeouts and one walk. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. Like Kikuchi, he struggled in the Spring but has pitched reasonably well in his first four regular season outings, logging a 4.06 FIP and 0.86 WHIP. Current Blue Jays hitters have gone a miserable 8-for-41 against Singer including just on extra-base hit (a home run by Daulton Varsho). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 0-for-7 in his career against Singer. Neither bullpen has been lights out this season but I do think both starters are capable of working relatively deep into this ball game. Of note, the two bullpens entered yesterday's action having combined to record 12 saves while blowing only three. Take the under (10*). |
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04-21-24 | Predators v. Canucks -140 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Vancouver over Nashville at 10 pm et on Sunday. The Canucks dropped their regular season finale in Winnipeg but I look for them to bounce back in Game 1 of their opening round series against the Predators. This is more of a mismatch than the line indicates in my opinion. Nashville made a late push but was really only a mediocre Western Conference team all season. Vancouver on the other hand was a front-runner for much of the way before Dallas ultimately overtook it for the top spot in the West. Note that the Preds are just 9-13 (-4.1 net games) in their last 23 Game 1's while the Canucks are 22-9 (+10.1 net games) off a loss this season. Take Vancouver (10*). |
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04-21-24 | Mavs v. Clippers OVER 222.5 | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Los Angeles at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. We've seen this total drop considerably since opening but I think it's moving in the wrong direction. Both teams were trending faster down the stretch. The Clippers, while enduring their share of struggles, were actually rather consistent offensively over the final month of the regular season. They check in having connected on 40 or more field goals in six straight and 13 of their last 15 games overall. The problem is, their defensive play has left a lot to be desired this season. They've allowed eight of their last nine opponents to get off at least 88 field goal attempts. The Mavericks essentially punted their final two games of the regular season but prior to that had made good on 46, 50 and 43 field goals over their last three contests. They've hoisted more than 90 field goal attempts in eight of their last 15 games. Note that the 'over' is 23-20 in the Mavs last 43 road games with the total set in the 220's including a 7-4 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 36-28 in the Clippers last 64 games following consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, including an 11-9 record this season. Take the over (8*). |
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04-21-24 | Red Sox v. Pirates -140 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -140 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Boston at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Red Sox have proven to be road warriors in the early going this season but I look for them to get tripped up in the finale of their series in Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon. Josh Winckowski will get the start for Boston. He has logged 11 2/3 innings in relief this season, posting an ugly 2.06 WHIP. Keep in mind, for his career he has recorded a 1.54 WHIP so it's not like there's a lot of positive regression to be expected. Veteran left-hander Martin Perez had a terrific Spring for the Pirates and has picked up right where he left off in the regular season, posting a 3.43 FIP and 1.26 WHIP in four starts. He did labor through his most recent outing against the red hot Mets but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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04-20-24 | Lakers v. Nuggets -7 | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 36 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. We'll fade the Lakers off their play-in victory over the Pelicans earlier this week. The Nuggets are rested and waiting to begin defense of their NBA title and I look for them to come up with a big performance on Saturday. Note that Los Angeles is 61-69 ATS in its last 130 road games including a 19-22 ATS mark this season. The Lakers are also 16-33 ATS in their last 49 contests following consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here, including a 5-10 ATS record in that situation this season. Denver is a long-term 78-68 ATS in its last 146 games played on three or more days' rest including a 10-6 ATS mark over the last three seasons. Keep in mind the Nuggets are also 21-18 ATS as a home favorite this season. I'm not convinced this will be a quick series but I do anticipate Denver gaining the upper hand in the opener. Take Denver (8*). |
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04-20-24 | Rangers +140 v. Braves | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Saturday. I like the Rangers to bounce back on Saturday after they were crushed by the Braves in the opener of this series last night. Nathan Eovaldi is in line for a bounce back performance of his own after he allowed two home runs and five earned runs in an 8-5 loss against the Astros last time out. Through his first three starts this season Eovaldi had given up just three earned runs in 18 2/3 innings. Charlie Morton will counter for Atlanta. He can certainly be had right now as he has been tagged for 10 earned runs over his last two starts spanning just 11 2/3 innings. The bullpens are closer to a wash than you might think. The Braves 'pen entered this series sporting an ERA well north of five and a 1.50 WHIP at home this season. Take Texas (8*). |
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04-20-24 | A's v. Guardians -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 125 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland -1.5 runs over Oakland at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. We'll fade Alex Wood and the A's on Saturday as they challenge Logan Allen and the Guardians in Game 2 of their series in Cleveland. Wood's best days are obviously behind him. He's made four starts this season, logging a 5.54 FIP and 2.10 WHIP. Logan Allen hasn't exactly been at his best for the Guardians but the potential is there and I look for him to bounce back from consecutive rough outings here at home. Note that he has posted a 1.36 WHIP through 21 1/3 innings of work this season. The A's are off to a fine start this season - certainly better than most expected - but I'm going to be looking to fade them in the coming weeks. Take Cleveland -1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-20-24 | Mets v. Dodgers -1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over New York at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. I like the Dodgers to rebound from last night's loss to the Mets and two losses in a row overall. Jose Butto has been impressive for the Mets so far this season but I do think he's in for some considerable regression moving forward. The hits simply haven't been falling in against him as he has held the opposition to 3.8 hits per nine innings. Keep in mind, for his limited big league career, Butto has allowed 7.3 hits per nine frames. Dodgers starter Gavin Stone has also got off to a solid start this season with a 2.18 FIP and 1.57 WHIP despite allowing 11.0 hits per nine innings. The Mets bullpen didn't have to do a lot of heavy lifting in last night's game but I think we'll see a different story on Saturday as the Dodgers offense figures to erupt off a couple of subpar performances. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-19-24 | Rays +140 v. Yankees | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I think some bettors may have Rays 'opener' Tyler Alexander confused with Angels journeyman Tyler Anderson as this price seems a little out of whack. Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt has had an up and down start to the campaign having posted a solid 3.54 FIP but a lofty 1.64 WHIP through three outings. Keep in mind, you would have to go back eight Schmidt starts to find the last time he made it through six innings. The Rays have long held their own against the Yankees, going 16-16 (+0.7 net games) in this series over the last three seasons. We'll back them at a considerable underdog price on Friday. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
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04-19-24 | White Sox +148 v. Phillies | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Friday. The Rockies let the Phillies off the hook two nights ago and Philadelphia came away with a series sweep. I look for the White Sox to bring an end to the Phillies winning streak on Friday, however, as they send impressive rookie Garrett Crochet to the hill against Tigers castaway Spencer Turnbull. The White Sox are off to a tough start to the season, as was expected. Few will be expecting much out of them in this series against the red hot Phillies but that's precisely why I see them as offering value. Crochet is undoubtedly the better starting pitcher in this matchup and I still feel the Philadelphia bullpen can be had - as we saw against Colorado when it nearly blew a 7-1 lead two nights ago. Take Chicago (8*). |
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04-18-24 | Diamondbacks +150 v. Giants | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on Arizona over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Thursday. Going back to the start of last season, the Giants are 17-20 in Logan Webb's 37 starts. Yes, he's a quality pitcher but San Francisco doesn't always provide the support needed to secure victories in spite of his terrific pitching. That wasn't the story in his most recent outing as the Giants produced 11 runs in a rout of the Rays last Saturday. I expect a much different story to unfold on Thursday in San Francisco. Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson is coming off a masterful six-inning outing against the Cardinals in which he allowed just one earned run. Note that the D'Backs have come away victorious in each of his three career starts against the Giants including a pair of wins in San Francisco. While the bullpen matchup is virtually a wash over the last week, D'Backs relievers have posted better overall numbers this season. Take Arizona (10*). |
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04-18-24 | Sharks v. Flames -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Calgary -1.5 goals over San Jose at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. The Flames fell short in Vancouver two nights ago, snapping a two-game winning streak in the process. I look for them to bounce back on Thursday as they return home to wrap up what has been a disappointing season but in a smash spot against the lowly Sharks. San Jose looks like a team that has already packed it in for the season, coming off consecutive blowout losses by scores of 6-2 and 9-2 against the Wild and Oilers, respectively. Still a number of years away from even contending for a playoff spot, the Sharks are looking to the future. It's a different story for the Flames as they expect to compete for a playoff spot (and a division title) each and every year. There's plenty of roster moves to be made moving forward but I do think this team has continued to play hard down the stretch and finds itself in a prime bounce-back situation on Thursday. The Flames have plenty of young talent in the pipeline, led by goaltender Dustin Wolf, who figures to get the start between the pipes on Thursday. He backstopped the Flames to a 3-2 win in San Jose on April 9th, stopping 20 of 22 shots he faced. Take Calgary -1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-18-24 | Rangers v. Tigers +100 | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Texas at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. This series has been about as back-and-forth and tightly-contested as it gets and we'll count on the Tigers to bounce back and earn a 2-2 split on Thursday afternoon in Detroit. Kenta Maeda will get the start for Detroit. His overall numbers through three starts this season are not good but he is trending in the right direction. Last time out Maeda held the Twins to just one earned run over six innings. In four career starts against Texas he has posted a 3.05 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Jack Leiter will get his first career big league start for the Rangers. While he could be effective in this game, it's unlikely we'll see him work deep into the contest. That leaves plenty of work for a Rangers bullpen that has struggled for the most part this season, logging a collective 4.96 ERA and 1.38 WHIP entering yesterday's game. In stark contrast, the Tigers 'pen entered yesterday's action with a 1.70 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Take Detroit (8*). |
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04-17-24 | Hawks +3 v. Bulls | 116-131 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Chicago at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Bulls enter this game on the heels of three straight ATS victories and they're a long-term loser in that situation having gone 117-143 ATS including an 8-17 ATS mark over the last three seasons. Few will give the Hawks a chance in this game given they're riding a six-game losing streak, however, they're 45-38 ATS in their last 83 contests following six straight defeats. Also note that the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series, winning six of those games outright including each of the last four. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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04-17-24 | Blues +185 v. Stars | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Dallas at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. With their opening round matchup out of their hands, I don't anticipate seeing the Stars go 'all out' to win in their home finale on Wednesday. The Blues are playing for nothing at this point but they certainly want to close out a non-playoff season on a high note and have been playing reasonably well over the last month or so, particularly on the road where they're 4-2 in their last six games going back to March 11th. We'll certainly take a flyer on the Blues at this price, noting they're 2-0-1 in this series this season. Take St. Louis (8*). |
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04-17-24 | Rockies +195 v. Phillies | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockies are certainly looking ahead to a return home at the conclusion of this series but I do look for them to avoid the sweep and pick up a rare road victory on Wednesday night in Philadelphia. Ryan Feltner was on the hill for the Rockies most recent win - last Friday in Toronto. He's as serviceable as it gets when it comes to the Colorado starting rotation. This play is more about fading Phillies starter Christopher Sanchez, who I don't feel belongs in this price range. I don't anticipate either starter working deep into this ball game but will take my chances fading the Phillies subpar bullpen which entered last night's action sporting a collective 6.31 ERA and 1.57 WHIP at home this season. Take Colorado (8*). |
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04-17-24 | Cardinals v. A's +145 | 3-6 | Win | 145 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over St. Louis at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. Steven Matz was spotted a 4-0 lead in the first inning in his most recent start against Arizona. The Cardinals would go on to blow a 6-0 lead in that game before rallying for a 9-6 victory. All of that to say, Matz has been anything but dominant through his first three starts this season, striking out only eight while allowing 17 hits in 15 innings of work. It's been a different story for A's starter Paul Blackburn. He has yet to give up an earned run in 19 1/3 innings this season. Meanwhile, the A's bullpen has been terrific in the early going. We'll back the A's as they look to avoid the series sweep on Wednesday. Take Oakland (8*). |
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04-17-24 | Nationals +226 v. Dodgers | 2-0 | Win | 226 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Los Angeles at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Nationals were never going to have much of a shot at beating the Dodgers for a second straight game on Tuesday as they handed the ball to inning-eating batting practice pitcher Patrick Corbin. The Dodgers rolled in that contest. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however, as Washington sends Jake Irvin to the hill against Dodgers rookie Landon Knack. Irvin has been serviceable in the early going this season, logging a 4.01 FIP and 1.06 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Nats bullpen has held up well, recording a collective 3.26 ERA with six saves converted and three blown in the early going this season. With a win on Wednesday, Washington would wrap up a confidence-building 5-4 road trip. The Dodgers on the other hand are just 2-4 over their last six games, still setting into the long 162-game season. Take Washington (8*). |
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04-17-24 | Yankees -1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-4 | Win | 155 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Week. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Wednesday. Kevin Gausman has been awful in his last two starts. In fact, he's been pretty bad going all the way back to last August save for a few starts. When things have gone south for the veteran right-hander it's been in spectacular fashion. Note that in Gausman's last seven team losses, the opposition has plated a whopping 51 runs. After dropping the first two games of this series, I look for the Yankees to rebound on Wednesday afternoon. Marcus Stroman will get the nod for New York. He's coming off a rocky outing of his own but still owns a respectable 3.42 FIP and 1.06 WHIP on the campaign. He'll of course be up for this matchup against his former team. The Jays bullpen has held up well in this series so far but I think it's only a matter of time before it gets blown up. We'll bet that today is the day. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-17-24 | Twins -1.5 v. Orioles | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota -1.5 runs over Baltimore at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Orioles have elected to give Bruce Zimmermann the start on Wednesday as they look to wrap up a series sweep of the Twins. This is a starting pitching mismatch as Minnesota will hand the ball to its ace Pablo Lopez. We'll lay the extra run in this spot as the Twins are well-positioned to avoid the sweep in convincing fashion, noting their bullpen continues to pitch well having recorded a collective 2.37 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the season. Take Minnesota -1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-16-24 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 11-12 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona -1.5 runs over Chicago at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cubs have now won three games in a row but I expect them to fall flat on Tuesday as they send Kyle Hendricks to the mound against Tommy Henry. This likely amounts to a bullpen game and in that case I'll favor the Diamondbacks based on the situation alone. Note that Chicago has been involved in four straight tightly-contested games in as many days, using many of its key bullpen arms. There's a good chance this one gets way from the Cubs, especially with Hendricks struggling (he's been one of the worst starters in baseball so far this season) in the early going. While I'm not overly high on Tommy Henry, I do think the attractive plus-money return laying the extra run with the D'Backs is too much to pass up, noting that seven of their eight wins this year have come by at least two runs including all six victories at home. Take Arizona -1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-16-24 | Braves -1.5 v. Astros | 6-2 | Win | 140 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Braves were high on Reynaldo Lopez when they brought him over from the White Sox and perhaps for good reason. He's proven to be a useful cog in their injury-depleted starting rotation and I look for him to step up and give them another quality outing on Tuesday. It's a much different story for Astros starter Hunter Brown. He has all the tools to succeed but hasn't been able to put it together in his first season-plus at the big league level. He's been rocked over his last two outings and now faces the daunting task of trying to keep the Braves loaded lineup at bay. Behind Brown is an Astros bullpen that has been among the worst in baseball so far this season. It was only a matter of time before the Braves pulled away last night and I expect a similar story to unfold on Tuesday. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-16-24 | Lakers v. Pelicans | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
Play-in Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While the Pelicans were there in body they certainly weren't in spirit in Sunday's regular season ending 124-108 loss to these same Lakers. I expect a different story to unfold in Tuesday's 7 vs. 8 play-in tournament matchup. Neither team's back is against the wall, so to speak, in this contest as the one that loses will live to fight another day, against the winner of the 9 vs. 10 matchup between the Warriors and Kings. The Pelicans have enjoyed a terrific season and prior to Sunday's loss to the Lakers, had reeled off four straight wins - all coming on the road. I certainly anticipate them bouncing back here, noting they've gone 20-11 ATS in their last 31 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 9-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Lakers are 21-39 ATS in their last 60 contests following consecutive wins including a 9-15 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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04-16-24 | Pirates +120 v. Mets | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. Off last night's big rally, we'll fade the Mets on Tuesday as they send veteran Jose Quintana to the mound against Pirates rookie Jared Jones. The starting pitching matchup doesn't matter all that much to me in this spot but I will note that Jones has shown the ability to work relatively deep into ball games, lasting at least 5 2/3 innings in all three of his starts this season. Quintana on the other hand has topped out at 5 2/3 innings in his first three outings this year. The Pirates bullpen figures to be in better shape here as the Mets come off consecutive tightly-contested affairs (and have nearly doubled the Pirates bullpen innings pitched over the last week). Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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04-16-24 | Hurricanes v. Blue Jackets +240 | 3-6 | Win | 240 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Columbus over Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. With the Rangers wrapping up top spot in the Eastern Conference (and the Metropolitan Division) last night, the Hurricanes will play a relatively meaningless game to wrap up their regular season on Tuesday in Columbus. The Blue Jackets limp in off an 0-4 road trip that began with a 3-0 loss to these same Canes in Raleigh. Columbus has definitely been a more competitive team at home lately, securing wins over the Golden Knights, Oilers, Penguins and Avalanche among others since the beginning of March. While I don't anticipate Carolina simply rolling over in its regular season finale, I do think the Jackets are well worth a shot at such a lofty price. While the Canes are 3-0 on their current road trip, they have lost close to four in every 10 games on the road this season. Take Columbus (8*). |
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04-16-24 | Rockies +210 v. Phillies | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. I don't think the Phillies have any business being priced in this range with Ranger Suarez starting on Tuesday. The Rockies were right there with the Phils last night despite a no-show from their offense, ultimately dropping a 2-1 decision in extra innings. They'll hand the ball to Austin Gomber on Tuesday and while he's a prototypical back-of-the-rotation starter, the fact is he's been on the hill for two victories in his first three starts, once again illustrating that starting pitching matchups aren't the end-all and be-all when it comes to baseball handicapping. The price is right to take a flyer on the Rockies as they look to snap a three-game skid. Take Colorado (8*). |
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04-15-24 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -136 | 3-2 | Loss | -136 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Chicago at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Diamondbacks come into this series feeling pretty good about themselves after posting four wins in their last five games. We'll back them here and fade the Cubs who are coming off a series win in Seattle including a 3-2 victory yesterday. Rookie Ben Brown will get his second start for the Cubs. He impressed in his first, allowing just three hits over 4 2/3 shutout innings against the Padres. Control has been an issue for Brown in the minors and I suspect the D'Backs will stay patient against him on Monday, ultimately leading to a relatively short outing. Merrill Kelly has been the picture of consistency for Arizona. He rarely gets blown up and when he does it usually happens on the road, not at home. Going back to last season, Kelly has lasted at least six innings in each of his last four starts. Take Arizona (8*). |
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04-15-24 | Sabres +150 v. Lightning | 4-2 | Win | 150 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Monday. While the Sabres have been eliminated from playoff contention, they ended up closer than you might think to clinching a spot in the postseason, sitting just five points back of the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. Buffalo dropped the first game of its two-game Florida jaunt with a 3-2 defeat against the Panthers in Sunrise on Saturday but I look for it to bounce back here. Tampa Bay is already locked into the first Wild Card spot in the East and enters this contest off consecutive losses. It will wrap up its regular season with a home game against the Maple Leafs on Wednesday. Buffalo is 2-1 in this series this season and has won its last two stops in Tampa. It's hard not to like the return being offered with the upstart Sabres here. Take Buffalo (8*). |
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04-15-24 | Giants -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
National League Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Miami at 6:40 pm et on Monday. Marlins starter A.J. Puk has proven he's not ready for a rotation spot, issuing 14 walks while giving up 12 hits in barely 10 innings of work this season. The Giants should be in a foul mood after failing to secure a series win in St. Petersburg yesterday. Kyle Harrison looks like he has the stuff to succeed at the big league level and I'm confident he'll put San Francisco in good position to win by margin on Monday in Miami. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-15-24 | Rangers v. Tigers +110 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Texas at 6:40 pm et on Monday. I think the Rangers chasers will be out in full effect for this game as a short favorite after they dropped the final two contests of their weekend series in Houston. Instead we'll back the Tigers as they look to keep their terrific start going and own a starting pitching edge with Reese Olson going up against call-up Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen is only making this start because of an injury to Cody Bradford. You may remember Lorenzen from his no-hitter last season but he faded after that and doesn't have the skills to succeed as a starter at the big league level. Olson showed positive flashes last season even if his overall numbers didn't impress. He was solid in his 2024 debut before getting roughed up by the Pirates in his most recent start. Both of his previous outings came on the road. I look for him to benefit from making his third start here at hitter-friendly Comerica Park. Take Detroit (8*). |
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04-15-24 | Rockies v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Monday. The Phillies saw their 10-game 'under' streak grind to a halt against the Pirates yesterday. I expect to see a bit of a correction moving forward, continuing with Monday's date with the Rockies. Colorado starter Cal Quantrill couldn't make a go of it in Cleveland and won't find life any easier with one of the worst teams in baseball. Quantrill figures to get hit hard by a Phillies team that is looking to bounce back from Sunday's loss. Aaron Nola is often priced as an elite pitcher for the Phillies but I don't necessarily think he falls into that category. Nola owns a 6.75 FIP and 1.50 WHIP through three starts spanning 16 innings this season and while those numbers are sure to come down, how much remains to be seen. Take the over (8*). |
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04-15-24 | Guardians v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Boston at 11:10 am et on Monday. Few are probably expecting much in the way of offensive fireworks in this early morning start on Marathon Day in Boston. I'll go the other way and call for a relatively high-scoring affair as the two teams are well-positioned to score early and often. Xzavion Curry gets his first start of the season for the Guardians after getting an audition for a starting job late last year. In just over 100 big league innings, Curry owns a 4.64 FIP and 1.41 WHIP. We know what we're going to get from the right-hander, who I should mention is unlikely to work deep into this ball game. It's a similar story with Kutter Crawford of the Red Sox. He has punched above his weight class in his first three starts this season but I expect regression moving forward. Like Curry, he's not a candidate to work deep into ball games. The Guardians have the type of lineup that puts a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers and can certainly move the line. I think these two teams go back-and-forth all day long. Take the over (8*). |
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04-14-24 | Nationals v. A's OVER 8.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We haven't seen much offense so far in this series and I suppose that's to be expected with these two lineups. I do think we'll see a different story unfold on Sunday, however, as the Nationals send Trevor Williams to the hill against Alex Wood of the A's. Both starters are coming off fine outings last time out. I question whether either can string together a second straight positive outing though. Williams recorded a 5.98 FIP and 1.60 WHIP for the Nats last year. Pitchers of his age and quality don't tend to turn things around at this stage of their career. Wood is a journeyman left-hander that has posted a 4.55 FIP and 1.95 WHIP through three starts this season. The Nats can get to him here. Take the over (8*). |
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04-14-24 | Bucks v. Magic OVER 214.5 | Top | 88-113 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Orlando at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Magic have been trending in the wrong direction defensively, allowing three straight and four of their last five opponents to connect on at least 42 field goals. They've also been playing faster down the stretch, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in three of their last five contests. The Bucks can seemingly bait any opponent into an up-tempo affair, noting that they've allowed 89 or more field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games. Even without Giannis in the lineup, they've been clicking offensively, making good on 41 or more field goals in six of their last eight contests. The 'over' is 32-21 in the Bucks last 53 games following a road loss including a 10-8 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 49-39 in Orlando's last 88 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 13-7 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-13-24 | Cubs -1.5 v. Mariners | 4-1 | Win | 125 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. I think there's a certain feeling of confidence the Cubs have when Japanese import Shota Imanaga takes the hill, even if he is only two outings into his big league career. The Cubs have won his two previous starts by scores of 5-0 and 8-1 and I like their chances of posting another lopsided victory on Saturday in Seattle. The Mariners did take the opener of this series last night as the Cubs bats were silent against Bryce Miller and the Seattle bullpen. This is a fine bounce-back spot as they draw Mariners sophomore starter Emerson Hancock. He has yet to really fine-tune his stuff, as evidenced by a 7.52 FIP and 1.96 WHIP through two outings this season. He's now faced 93 batters at the major league level going back to last season and they've recorded a lofty .325 batting average against him. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-13-24 | Giants v. Rays -105 | 11-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over San Francisco at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Rays are rolling right now, winners of three games in a row. I look for them to keep it going as they send promising right-hander Ryan Pepiot to the mound against veteran Logan Webb of the Giants. Pepiot got roughed up by the Rangers in his Rays debut but bounced back nicely to toss six shutout innings of three-hit, no-walk ball while striking out 11 at hitter-friendly Coors Field last time out. Coming over from the Dodgers, the Rays do feel like they have a good one in Pepiot and I tend to agree. He showed plenty of promise before injuries took their toll last season. Logan Webb has battled through some control issues in the early going this season but has still posted a FIP around three. He's always good for eating innings and is consistently effective but I'm not convinced the Giants can give him enough run support nor do I have much faith in San Francisco's sagging bullpen. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
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04-13-24 | Rockies v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. The Rockies bats exploded in the series opener between these two teams last night. I expect the Blue Jays to return the favor against Colorado starter Dakota Hudson on Saturday but question whether Toronto's pitching staff can stem the tide with Yariel Rodriguez getting the call to make his big league debut. Rodriguez is a bit of a Wild Card having mostly excelled as a reliever in Japan. The Blue Jays are certainly believers in him after handing him a $32 million contract but it remains to be seen how he'll perform at the big league level. For now, I'm not anticipating him to work deep into this ball game, nor do I expect him to completely shut down the Rockies bats. Toronto's bullpen hasn't been good and there's no help coming at the moment. Given how I expect the Jays bats to perform in this game I don't think we'll need much from the Rockies to get this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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04-13-24 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 110 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas -1.5 goals over Seattle at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. The Stars current homestand hasn't gone as they hoped as they eked out a 3-2 win over Buffalo before a blowout loss at the hands of the Jets. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday as they host the Kraken who are simply playing out the string at the end of the disappointing season that won't result in a second straight playoff appearance. Dallas is in a fine spot here as it has gone a long-term 127-59 (+71.6 net games) when coming off a loss by two goals or more against a division opponent, as is the case here, including an 11-2 (+8.7 net games) mark in that situation over the last three seasons and a 3-0 (+3 net games) record this season. Meanwhile, the Kraken, fresh off an ugly home loss against the Sharks, are just 16-26 (-11.3 net games) following a loss this season. The Stars have owned this series for the most part and I expect them to post a lopsided victory on Saturday. Take Dallas -1.5 goals (8*). |
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04-12-24 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 219.5 | 114-109 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Pelicans are coming off an exceptionally high scoring affair in Sacramento last night as both teams quite simply shot the lights out. The pace wasn't necessarily there for a contest that approached 260 total points. I expect a lower-scoring contest on Friday as the Pelicans wrap up their road trip in San Francisco. Golden State is trending slower having gotten off just 80 and 77 field goal attempts in its last two games with the latter performance coming in last night's 100-92 win in Portland. While the Warriors have been red hot shooting the basketball I do think the Pelicans can tame them here, noting that New Orleans has had a penchant for bouncing back from subpar defensive efforts (it allowed Sacramento to connect on 46 field goals last night). The Pelicans have still held 20 of their last 25 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, New Orleans has gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games. This doesn't figure to be the spot where it suddenly starts playing fast as the tail-end of a long road trip near the end of the regular season. The Warriors have incredibly limited 10 of their last 11 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (8*). |
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04-12-24 | Cubs +105 v. Mariners | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I'm fairly high on Cubs starter Jordan Wicks in the early going this season. We managed to cash the 'under' in his most recent start against the Dodgers. He didn't necessarily have his best stuff on that afternoon but still hung in there and ultimately helped our cause. I like the matchup here against a Mariners offense that just hasn't been there with any consistency in the early stages of the season. Bryce Miller has a bright future for Seattle, or at least that's the general consensus. I do think he's a considerable step behind the likes of George Kirby and Logan Gilbert in the M's starting rotation, however. In fact, I'm not sure Miller will every reach those heights. He's alternated good and bad starts so far this year and I think he's in for a rough one on Friday. Take Chicago (10*). |
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04-12-24 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -116 | 9-6 | Loss | -116 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over St. Louis at 9:40 pm et on Friday. Brandon Pfaadt enjoyed a nice turnaround for the Diamondbacks last season and while his ERA through two starts this year leaves a lot to be desired that doesn't tell the whole story. Pfaadt actually checks in sporting a 2.85 FIP giving him something to build on as he faces the Cardinals on Friday. We'll fade Cards starter Steven Matz as he comes off a solid five-inning outing against the Marlins. His 1.74 ERA and 1.16 WHIP won't hold. I look for the D'Backs to get to him on Friday. Take Arizona (8*). |
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04-12-24 | Predators -1.5 v. Blackhawks | Top | 5-1 | Win | 108 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Nashville -1.5 goals over Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Friday. I expect the Predators to be all business as they carry out this one-game trip to Chicago off a disappointing home loss against the Jets three nights ago. Note that Nashville is 12-5 (+7.9 net games) following a home loss this season while Chicago checks in a woeful 17-60 (-32.6 net games) in its last 77 contests against Central Division foes. After a brief surge, the wheels have come off for the Blackhawks over the last couple of games, falling by 4-0 and 5-2 scores against the Wild and Blues. They were down 4-0 before the ice was even dry two nights ago in St. Louis. Since the start of 2022 the Preds are 7-1 in this series with all but two of those victories coming by at least two goals. Take Nashville -1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-12-24 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We'll pick on the two starters in this divisional matchup as neither arm has the track record to shine in this particular spot. Dane Dunning can succeed at times for the Rangers but it's more a matter of holding the opposing bats at bay just enough for his team's offense to take care of the rest. Dunning isn't shutting many opponents down. It's a similar story for J.P. France. He has actually recorded a terrific 2.43 FIP through two outings this season but regression figures to be on his way, noting he has posted a lofty 1.50 WHIP. Off a 1-0 loss to the A's yesterday the Rangers bats figure to wake up and it's worth mentioning that they just faced France last week, plating three earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. The damage could have been even worse as France yielded eight hits and two walks while striking out only four. Dunning fared slightly better against the Astros and has solid career numbers against them. Note the he's faced them just once in Houston and lasted only four innings after giving up four earned runs on seven hits. Take the over (10*). |
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04-11-24 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Kings | 135-123 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Sacramento at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans are 2-0 on their current road trip, successfully bouncing back from a four-game losing streak. They're as locked in defensively as it gets having held three of their last four opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals and 12 of their last 14 foes to 43 or fewer. The Kings have been playing faster lately but it hasn't translated into offensive success. They've gotten off 99, 94 and 96 field goal attempts over their last three contests but were limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in all three. They're likely to be left with little margin for error in this particular matchup with the Pelicans having held an incredible 14 straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Keep in mind Sacramento has connected on 42 or fewer field goals in 10 of its last 11 contests. The Pelicans are 28-24 ATS in their last 52 games as a road underdog of six points or less including a 10-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Kings are 33-47 ATS in their last 80 contests as a home favorite including a 13-21 ATS record this season. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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04-11-24 | Orioles v. Red Sox +112 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston over Baltimore at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Orioles have taken the first two games in this series including last night's contest in comeback fashion. We have a terrific starting pitching matchup on tap for Thursday's series finale but I'll give the Red Sox the edge with Garrett Whitlock taking the ball. Whitlock showed promise before being moved to the bullpen last year. So far this season he has logged a 2.25 FIP and 1.18 WHIP and that comes on the heels of an outstanding Spring. Grayson Rodriguez has the potential to be an ace for the Orioles but we saw him go through a stretch where he couldn't keep the ball in the park last May and we're seeing signs of that again in the early going this season (three home runs allowed in two starts). Fenway Park isn't a great place to figure out such issues. Take Boston (10*). |
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04-11-24 | Orioles v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | 9-4 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The bats came to life at Fenway Park last night with the Orioles rallying for a 7-5 victory. I look for a lower-scoring affair as the series wraps up on Thursday evening. This game features two promising starting pitchers in Grayson Rodriguez and Garrett Whitlock. There's not a lot bad you can say about either one of them in the early going this season other than Rodriguez having had a penchant for allowing home runs. He does minimize the damage by not putting a lot of runners on base. Whitlock, meanwhile, has recorded a 2.25 FIP and 1.18 WHIP in his first two outings this season. The Boston bullpen imploded last night but had been solid previously. The O's 'pen is as advertised. Take the under (8*). |
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04-11-24 | Capitals v. Sabres OVER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' lately but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up on Thursday in Buffalo. The Capitals currently hold down the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference playoff hunt but their hold is tenuous at best. They need to throw everything they have at the Sabres on Thursday. Buffalo comes off consecutive road losses in Detroit and Dallas in which it scored a grand total of three goals. A return home should help the Sabres cause as should facing the Caps noting that Washington is giving up an average of 3.3 goals per game on the road this season. Note that the 'over' is 14-10 in Washington's last 24 games following three straight 'under' results, as is the case here, including a 5-4 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Buffalo has seen the 'over' go 26-16 in its last 42 contests when coming off consecutive 'under' results, which is also the situation here, including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-10-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. As is the case with many teams on Wednesday, both the Timberwolves and Nuggets are in a back-to-back spot here. I think this sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair between these Northwest Division rivals. Note that the Timberwolves have been the picture of consistency from a defensive standpoint this season. They're not getting run out of the gym by many opponents having held an incredible 17 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Over that stretch, only two opponents made good on more than 42. It's a similar story for the Nuggets but with even more dominance. They've limited seven of their last eight foes to fewer than 40 made field goals. You would have to go back 15 games to find the last time they allowed an opponent to connect on more than 42. The 'under' is 13-10 in Minnesota's last 23 games after scoring 130 points or more in their previous contest, as is the case here, including a 1-0 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 29-21 in the Nuggets last 15 contests as a home favorite of six points or less including a 9-4 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-24 | A's v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 112 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Oakland at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The A's have inexplicably reeled off three straight wins but I look for that streak to end on Wednesday. Ross Stripling will get the start for Oakland. He caught lightning in a bottle in his most recent outing, getting involved in a pitching duel with Nick Pivetta of the Red Sox in an eventual 1-0 loss. Those type of impressive outings are likely to be few and far between for the journeyman starter this season, however. After his line drive percentage rocketed last season it has held through two starts this year as well. I look for the Rangers bats to feast. Cody Bradford doesn't get much attention near the back of the Rangers starting rotation but he has the potential to be a quality arm for the defending champs again this year. Bradford won't overwhelm hitters with his pitch velocity but he makes the most of his pitch arsenal and has recorded a 2.91 FIP and 0.47 WHIP through two outings this season. The A's have been winning but have a small margin for error averaging only 3.0 runs per game on the season. Take Texas -1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-10-24 | Nationals v. Giants -1.5 | 1-7 | Win | 107 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Washington at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Giants are reeling right now having dropped the first two games of this series but I look for them to bounce back on Wednesday. Patrick Corbin will get the start for Washington. The beauty of fading Corbin is that as poorly as he's likely to pitch, the Nationals aren't going to lift him from the game early. He's quite simply an innings eater at this stage of his career with a FIP approaching six and a WHIP nearing two already this season. Jordan Hicks continues to get run out as a starter for the Giants and so far, so good. Hicks had a terrific spring and has recorded a sub-2.00 FIP and 0.75 WHIP in 12 regular season innings. We'll lay the extra run in this spot. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-10-24 | Dodgers v. Twins UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. Bobby Miller and Chris Paddack are two starting pitchers that I'm willing to support in the early going this season. Miller is coming off a shaky outing against the Cubs at Wrigley Field but still sports a 2.45 FIP and 1.17 WHIP through his first two starts this season. He's got the potential to eventually be a top of the rotation arm for the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Chris Paddack continues to work his way back from 2022 Tommy John surgery. The Twins are believers in him and I am as well, noting that the right-hander has showed flashes for Minnesota after shining at the minor league level in brief action in each of the last two seasons. Paddack won't be asked to do too much in this matinee affair but can fend the Dodgers off long enough to help this one stay 'under' the total. Take the under (8*). |
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04-09-24 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 226.5 | Top | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Suns last three games and I look for a similar story to unfold on Tuesday. Phoenix has held six straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and three in a row to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time the Suns connected on more than 44 field goals. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been limited to 43 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games. They've held four straight and six of their last seven foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 60-45 in the Clippers last 105 games with the total set in the 220's including a 19-12 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 61-57 in the Suns last 118 contests as a home favorite including an 18-16 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-24 | Wild v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Avalanche will look to settle things down following consecutive high-scoring losses against the Oilers and Stars as they host the Wild on Tuesday. This figures to be a favorable spot for the Avs as the Wild have produced a grand total of just five goals in the last three meetings in this series. Note that Minnesota is coming off a shutout win in Chicago on Sunday. The 'under' is 33-27 in the Wild's last 60 contests following a road win including a 10-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 5-1 in Colorado's last six contests after giving up five goals or more in consecutive games, as is the case here, including a 2-0 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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04-09-24 | Astros v. Royals +114 | 3-4 | Win | 114 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Houston at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Astros rallied to win the final two games of their four-game series in Texas but now find themselves at a disadvantage travelling to face a rested and rolling Royals club on Tuesday in Kansas City. I like the way the starting pitching matchup sets up for Kansas City in the series opener as it sends Cole Ragans to the hill against Cristian Javier. These two pitchers are on different career trajectories right now with Javier heading in the wrong direction and Ragans quickly ascending to elite status. Javier did pitch well in his most recent outing but that only serves to artificially inflate his price here. Ragans recorded a 2.49 FIP in 70+ innings after joining the Royals last season and has picked up right where he left off in 2024, posting a 2.91 FIP and 0.89 WHIP in two starts. Take Kansas City (8*). |
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04-09-24 | Marlins +169 v. Yankees | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Marlins were shut out on Monday failing to build off Sunday's first victory of the season. I do think that lopsided result gives Yankees bettors a false sense of security with Carlos Rodon taking the ball for the third time this season on Tuesday. His 2.79 ERA so far this season doesn't tell the whole story as he has recorded a lofty 5.98 FIP in 9 2/3 innings of work. Likewise, Marlins starter A.J. Puk had a fine Spring but has been lit up in his first two regular season outings. I look for him to bounce back here and we'll note that he's not the one being priced as a big favorite. For his big league career, Puk has posted a solid 3.67 FIP. I think better days are ahead for the left-hander. Take Miami (8*). |
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04-09-24 | Orioles -136 v. Red Sox | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Boston at 2:10 pm et on Tuesday. We're being offered a decent price to back the Orioles on Tuesday as they look to cool off the red hot Red Sox. Corbin Burnes has been terrific in two starts with his new team, logging a 1.95 FIP and 0.86 WHIP. Red Sox starter Brayan Bello certainly isn't as bad as he's shown in the early going this season but a FIP north of six can't be ignored, especially as he prepares to face a loaded Orioles lineup. I think there's trouble brewing for the Sox in their home opener on Tuesday. Take Baltimore (8*). |
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04-08-24 | Rays -135 v. Angels | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. We'll get another shot at fading Angels starter Tyler Anderson at a reasonable price after he inexplicably tossed seven shutout innings against the Marlins in his 2024 debut. Los Angeles is coming off a series loss at home against another (weaker) A.L. East opponent in the Red Sox. The Rays come in off a series win in Colorado and will look to keep it rolling with Zach Eflin on the mound on Monday. He shook off a rough debut against the Blue Jays by holding the Rangers to just one earned run over 6 1/3 innings last time out. I would consider Anderson one of the more overpaid starters in baseball right now and will gladly fade him in this matchup. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 145.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Purdue and Connecticut at 9:20 pm et on Monday. I'm not going to stand in the way of either team's 'under' streaks in this matchup. Purdue has seen the 'under' cash in three straight games while Connecticut rides a six-game 'under' streak into Monday's contest. Neither team plays all that fast. In fact, the Huskies sit 328th (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Purdue checks in 211th. While both teams are ultra-efficient offensively, I generally feel this large stadium venues tend to put a ceiling on shooting abilities. The Huskies actually shot well in their matchup with Alabama on Saturday but Purdue is a considerably tougher defensive opponent. The Boilermakers are going to be up against it here trying to find open looks with UConn ranking fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). I think the Huskies can defend without fouling, something Purdue's previous opponents haven't been able to do effectively. Note that the 'under' is 16-15 in Purdue's last 31 netural court games and 18-12 in UConn's last 30 netural court affairs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-08-24 | Penguins +139 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday. This is undoubtedly a game the Penguins have had circled on their calendar since dropping a 7-0 decision here in Toronto back in December. Pittsburgh has inexplicably caught fire down the stretch, winning four straight and six of its last seven games after most had written it off. The Pens are now in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race and I look for them to deliver another improbable win on Monday. The Leafs are coming off a 4-2 victory over the rival Canadiens in Montreal on Saturday. They return home where they're just 4-4 over their last eight games. Note that Pittsburgh is 19-13 (+3.4 net games) in its last 32 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent including a 7-5 (+2.2 net games) mark in that situation this season. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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04-08-24 | Marlins +145 v. Yankees | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over New York at 6:05 pm et on Monday. The Marlins finally picked up their first victory of the season on Sunday and I look for them to notch a second straight win on Monday as they hand the ball to Jesus Luzardo against Nestor Cortes of the Yankees. I'm not going to knock Luzardo for a shaky outing against the Angels last time out. His FIP north of four is going to come down in time while he has recorded a sub-1.00 FIP through his first two starts. Cortes' first couple of starts haven't been all that encouraging for a pitcher approaching 30 years of age that has dealt with shoulder concerns. Through two outings, Cortes owns a 4.30 FIP and 1.70 WHIP. Coming off three straight series victories to open the campaign, I look for the Yankees to get tripped up here. Take Miami (8*). |
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04-07-24 | Kings v. Nets OVER 220 | 107-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively low-scoring results and the Nets find themselves in a back-to-back situation following last night's victory over the Pistons. I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair on Sunday in Brooklyn. The Kings have shown signs of speeding things up lately, getting off 92 and 99 field goal attempts in two games sandwiched around a matchup with the slow-paced Knicks. They should get theirs against a matador-like Nets defense on Sunday, noting that Brooklyn has allowed 42, 53, 46 and 42 made field goals over its last four contests. While the Kings have been stout defensively, the Nets have shown flashes offensively in recent weeks, connecting on more than 40 field goals in four of their last six games (they didn't reach that number last night but still scored 113 points against Detroit). The 'over' is 64-54 in the Kings last 118 games following an 'under' result including a 21-17 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' has cashed in four straight games with the Nets playing the second half of back-to-backs. Take the over (8*). |
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04-07-24 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. New Orleans is reeling right now having lost four straight games both SU and ATS. I look for the Pelicans to give the Suns all they can handle on Sunday, however. Note that New Orleans is trending in the right direction offensively having knocked down 42 or more field goals in two of its last three games. It has also held five straight and 10 of its last 12 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Suns while coming off three straight victories both SU and ATS have been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. It's not as if they're blowing the doors off the opposition. Note that the Pelicans are 19-11 ATS in their last 30 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including an 8-3 ATS record in that situation this season. The Suns are 18-34 ATS in their last 52 contests following a double-digit home win including a 4-8 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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04-07-24 | Padres v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over San Diego at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Padres starter Matt Waldron's stay at the big league level could prove to be short-lived but we want to fade him while we can as he makes his second start of the campaign in San Francisco on Sunday. Waldron actually looked pretty good in the Spring, earning a role in the starting rotation. His first regular season outing didn't go so well as he allowed nine hits and four earned runs in just four innings of work. The Giants will get their second look at the knuckle-baller after facing him in late September last year. Waldron recorded a 5.46 FIP in 41 1/3 big league innings last season. San Francisco will hand the ball to Logan Webb as he looks to shake off a rough outing in Los Angeles earlier this week. I'm not overly concerned by that shaky performance as Webb was terrific in his regular season debut (against these same Padres). The Giants ace owns a career 2.56 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 starts against San Diego. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-07-24 | Phillies v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Washington at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. While it features back-of-the-rotation starters, I do think we'll see a pretty good pitching matchup on Sunday afternoon in Washington. Christopher Sanchez had a miserable Spring but shook that off to toss five quality innings in his regular season debut, striking out eight while allowing just two earned runs against the Reds. He was serviceable last year, recording a 3.99 FIP and 1.05 WHIP in just shy of 100 innings pitched. Mackenzie Gore will counter for Washington. He was shaky in his first regular season outing. There are going to be plenty of ups and downs with Gore but the potential is there to rise to the occasion in spots like this one where the Nationals are trying to avoid the sweep. The Phillies aren't exactly tearing the cover off the baseball right now having scored more than four runs just twice in seven games to date. Take the under (8*). |
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04-06-24 | NC State v. Purdue -9 | 50-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Purdue minus the points over N.C. State at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. Purdue was involved in a nail-biter against Tennessee in the Elite Eight. I don't expect Saturday's Final Four clash with N.C. State to be as close. All credit to the Wolfpack for getting here, they've been on an incredible run going back to to the ACC Tournament. I don't like the spot here, however. Note that N.C. State checks in off a 12-point victory over Duke in the Elite Eight. The Wolfpack are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit win over a conference opponent including 1-2 ATS in that situation this season. N.C. State is also 4-11 ATS in its last 15 contests after covering the spread in consecutive games, as is the case here, including a 3-5 ATS mark in that spot this season. Purdue is a long-term 29-18 ATS in its last 47 NCAA Tournament games including a perfect 4-0 ATS record this year. It almost seems as if opponents have been overlooking N.C. State for weeks now. With the nearly week-long build-up to this contest, I don't expect Purdue to suffer the same fate. Take Purdue (8*). |
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04-06-24 | Mets v. Reds -115 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over New York at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mets took the opener of this series yesterday but that was their game to get in my opinion as they had veteran Jose Quintana going against Hunter Greene. On Saturday, the starting pitching advantage flips back to the Reds as they send Nick Martinez to the hill against Luis Severino. I think Severino might just be done as a productive big league starter. Starting pitchers at his age don't tend to enjoy sudden turnarounds and he showed us nothing in his regular season debut, getting lit up for 11 hits and six earned runs in just five innings of work against Milwaukee. The Mets took a flyer on the veteran right-hander but we won't do the same. Martinez has showed some promise in a starting role over the course of his career. He didn't have his best stuff in his regular season debut with the Reds but after a fine Spring, I'm willing to give him a pass. Look for the Reds bats to wake from their slumber on Saturday. Take Cincinnati (8*). |
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04-06-24 | Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 8 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams yesterday afternoon at Wrigley Field but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. Yoshinobu Yamomoto had a rough Spring and followed it up with a shaky regular season debut for the Dodgers. However, his second start went a lot better and I look for him to build off of that performance here. Note that Yamamoto actually dropped his FIP all the way to 1.85 on the campaign following his most recent effort. His opposing starter on Saturday will be Jordan Wicks. I'm relatively high on the Cubs left-hander who dazzled in the Spring and while he didn't have his best stuff in his first regular season outing, he did hang in there for four innings allowing only two earned runs, logging a 2.43 FIP. Look for runs to come at a premium at Wrigley on Saturday. Take the under (8*). |
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04-06-24 | Cavs v. Lakers OVER 228.5 | 97-116 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 3:40 pm et on Saturday. Sometimes these early start matchups on the west coast can be sleepy affairs but I don't expect that to be the case here. The Lakers have connected on 42 or more field goals in six of their last seven games. They're playing fast having gotten off 101 and 91 field goal attempts over their last two contests. Meanwhile, the Cavs haven't been their usual effective selves defensively and that's been the case for weeks. They've allowed five straight and seven of their last eight opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. While Cleveland hasn't been playing particularly fast lately, the Lakers have a knack for speeding up the opposition, sometimes to their own detriment. Their opponents have gotten off 89 or more field goal attempts in an incredible 30 of their last 31 games. The last time these two teams squared off back in November Cleveland hoisted up 91 field goal attempts in a game that reached 236 total points. The 'over' holds a slight edge in the long-term picture with the Cavs facing non-conference foes going 42-41 in their last 83 contests including a 16-10 mark this season. The 'over' is also 94-91 in Cleveland's last 185 contests following a loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here, including a 3-0 record in that situation this season. The Lakers have seen the 'over' go 123-102 in their last 225 games with the total set at 220 points or higher including a 43-31 record in that situation this season. Take the over (8*). |
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04-05-24 | Wolves v. Suns UNDER 219 | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair the last time they met but that was back in November. Phoenix is trending slower right now having gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight and eight of its last 10 games. The Suns have also played some defense lately, limiting seven of their last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Of course the Timberwolves have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season and they enter this contest having held 11 straight and 13 of their last 14 foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. Minnesota's offense exploded last time out but that was against a matador-like Raptors defense. Prior to that, the T'Wolves had been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in seven straight contests. Note that the 'under' is 50-44 in Minnesota's last 94 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 points or more, as is the case here, including a 15-5 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' holds a slight edge in all Suns home games recently, going 67-63 in their last 130 contests in the desert including a 19-18 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-05-24 | Mariners v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 5-6 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We saw what we needed to from Mariners starter Logan Gilbert in his regular season debut as he was dominant over seven innings against the Guardians. Now he faces a similarly tricky lineup in Milwaukee but I'm confident he'll be up to the task. Brewers starter Freddy Peralta has quite simply been the picture of consistency when healthy and he shook off a rough Spring to toss six razor sharp innings in his first start of the campaign. The Mariners bats have yet to wake up from their Spring slumber, already held to one run or less on three different occasions this season. Take the under (8*). |
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04-05-24 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring game in Atlanta on Friday. Tommy Henry will get the start for the visiting Diamondbacks. Even the most casual observer could see that there was trouble brewing for Henry last season. He had an awful Spring and followed it up with an ugly regular season debut last week. Now he draws an extremely difficult test in the Braves home opener on Friday. Spencer Strider was lights out in the Spring but his first regular season outing was about what we've come to expect from the Braves ace - plenty of strikeouts (eight) but also a couple of runs allowed. I do think the D'Backs bats can get to him here, even if he does end up hanging another crooked number of K's on the board. The potential for a 6-5 type of game is there in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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04-04-24 | Blues v. Predators OVER 6 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Predators are coming off a shutout defeat at the hands of the Bruins on home ice two nights ago. That's worth noting as the 'over' is a long-term 25-16 in their last 41 games after getting shut out at home including a 4-0 mark in that situation over the last three seasons (this is the first time it has come up this season). The Blues have seen the 'over' cash at a 28-11 clip in their last 39 contests played on two days' rest, as is the case here, including a 7-4 record in that spot this season. Additionally, the 'over' is 17-5 in St. Louis' last 22 games following an overtime victory including a 5-2 mark this season. Take the over (8*). |
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04-04-24 | White Sox v. Royals -1.5 | 1-10 | Win | 126 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Royals let the Orioles off the hook last night, blowing a late 3-0 lead in a 4-3 defeat. I don't expect them to suffer the same fate as they return home to host the White Sox on Thursday. Chicago is coming off a rain-out against the Braves yesterday. Mike Soroka is expected to get the start for the Sox. He was roughed up early in his season debut before settling down. So far so good on the injury front for the right-hander. I do think expectations should be tempered as he is by no means a number two starter for most teams in baseball. Seth Lugo is in his sweet spot as a home favorite, noting his teams have gone 16-5 (+7.6 net games) in his last 21 starts in that role. The White Sox check in a woeful 58-81 (-30.8 net games) in their last 139 contests following a victory, as is the case here. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-04-24 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 210 | 109-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. We saw a glimpse of how the 76ers are likely to play with Joel Embiid back in the lineup on Tuesday and that's relatively slow as they got off just 78 field goal attempts in that come-from-behind victory. We also saw Philadelphia bounce back defensively in that contest, holding Oklahoma City to just 37 made field goals. Note that the Sixers haven't allowed more than 90 field goal attempts since way back on March 6th against Memphis. Miami has seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total but the numbers point to that trend being unsustainable. Note that the Heat have held 12 of their last 15 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. None of their last 12 foes have gotten off more than 88 field goal attempts. The 'under' is 39-24 in Philadelphia's last 63 games as a road underdog including a 12-7 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 45-40 in the Heat's last 85 contests following three straight double-digit victories, as is the case here, including a 1-0 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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04-04-24 | Kings v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 109-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Sacramento at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Knicks after suffering a 109-99 setback in Miami two nights ago. New York couldn't get anything going offensively in that loss. Off three straight losses, the Knicks will catch a Kings squad that is probably feeling pretty good about itself following victories over the Jazz and Clippers. That latter win came by 14 points against Los Angeles. Note that Sacramento is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games following a win by double-digits over a division opponent including a 1-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Kings are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests after allowing 95 points or less in their previous game including a 1-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 28-23 ATS in their last 51 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 7-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're also 16-10 ATS in their last 26 contests following a double-digit road loss including a 6-2 ATS record this season. Take New York (10*). |
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04-03-24 | Cavs v. Suns -5.5 | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Cleveland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Cavaliers are coming off a win in Utah last night but haven't strung together consecutive ATS victories since March 11th and 13th. They'll be hard-pressed to accomplish that feat as they challenge a rested Suns squad in Phoenix on Wednesday. Note that the Suns have 6-3 ATS over their last nine games despite facing a pretty tough recent schedule. This homestand will only get tougher with matchups against the Timberwolves, Pelicans and Clippers on deck. Look for Phoenix to make the most of this winnable matchup. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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04-03-24 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm anticipating a low-scoring affair as the Giants and Dodgers do battle in the third game of their series on Wednesday. Kyle Harrison is a pitcher I'm willing to get behind as he comes off a a fine rookie campaign in which he proved he has the stuff to deceive hitters at the big league level. Tyler Glasnow is of course already an elite starter that earned a big contract from the Dodgers in the offseason and has been terrific through two starts this season (following a lights out Spring), allowing only nine of 42 batters he has faced to reach base. Expect runs to come at a premium in this one. Take the under (8*). |
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04-03-24 | Oilers +110 v. Stars | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton over Dallas at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Oilers dropped an overtime decision in St. Louis two nights ago but I look for them to earn a split on this two-game road trip with a victory in Dallas on Wednesday. The Stars are red hot, winners of seven games in a row. Keep in mind, only two of those victories came against teams currently in playoff position. The Oilers are a quality road team at 21-17 this season and the visitors have taken four of the last five meetings in this series. Take Edmonton (8*). |
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04-03-24 | Raptors +15.5 v. Wolves | 85-133 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors haven't shown much life lately and find themselves in a back-to-back spot on Wednesday in Minnesota. With that being said, the Timberwolves are 1-2-1 ATS in their last four contests and will be hard-pressed to cover a spread this lofty given the way they're playing right now. Note that Minnesota has gotten off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games and 88 or fewer in seven straight. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time it knocked down more than 42 field goals. The Raptors are actually trending in the right direction offensively after connecting on 47 and 43 field goals in their last two contests. Take Toronto (8*). |
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04-03-24 | Pirates -151 v. Nationals | 3-5 | Loss | -151 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Washington at 6:45 pm et on Wednesday. This is a pitching mismatch that isn't being properly reflected in the price. Mitch Keller is a serviceable starter for the Pirates. He will be looking to bounce back following a shaky first start of the regular season, however. I'm confident he'll rebound, noting he recorded a 3.80 FIP and 1.25 WHIP last season (and has posted a sub-4.00 FIP in three consecutive years). Trevor Williams, a former Pirate, will counter for Washington. He was awful for the Nationals last season and even worse in the Spring. Starters of this age and quality don't tend to enjoy sudden rebounds. Look for the Buccos bats to stay hot. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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04-03-24 | Reds v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. It's not too often we can talk about a potential pitcher's duel in a game involving these two teams but I do think that is the case on Wednesday. Frankie Montas had a rough Spring as he works his way back from injuries. He shrugged it off in his regular season debut, however, as he allowed just four of 21 batters to reach base over six shutout frames against the Nationals. Montas still has terrific stuff, his health is the only real concern and that's not a big issue at the moment. Zack Wheeler will counter for Philadelphia. He was also terrific in his regular season debut, allowing only five of 23 batters to reach base in six shutout innings. Wheeler was also lights out in the Spring, recording a 1.26 ERA and 0.63 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings of work. Take the under (8*). |
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04-03-24 | Angels v. Marlins -114 | 10-2 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Los Angeles at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. While most have already written off the the Marlins it's important to remember we're less than a week into the season. I like the matchup here as they look to tee off on Patrick Sandoval. The left-hander hasn't been good in his recent years, wasn't good in the Spring and was downright awful in his regular season debut. The opportunities have been there for the Marlins offensively, they simply haven't been able to cash in. Today they will. A.J. Puk won't be asked to do too much for Miami in a starter's role here. It's not as if the Angels bats are setting the world on fire, producing just three runs in last night's victory. Take Miami (8*). |
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04-02-24 | Giants +130 v. Dodgers | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Giants got drummed 8-3 in the opener of this series last night. I look for them to bounce back from consecutive losses as they send steady right-hander Logan Webb to the hill on Tuesday. Webb comes off three consecutive seasons in which he recorded an xERA of 3.31 or better including a 2.98 mark last year. The Dodgers haven't settled on a starter for Tuesday's game as of yet. We'll back the Giants as an 'action' bet here as Los Angeles isn't brimming with favorable options for the slot. Take San Francisco (8*). |
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04-02-24 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks -111 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over New York at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. Nestor Cortes was awful in exhibition action and struggled in his regular season debut as well. You have to wonder whether his shoulder issues from a year ago are still a factor. The Yankees are undoubtedly rolling out of the gate but I expect the Diamondbacks to bounce back from last night's series-opening loss. Arizona has been hot at the dish early in the campaign as well and should get to Cortes early and often. Zac Gallen looked good in his first start of the campaign, allowing just one earned run over five innings. He faces a much tougher test in his second outing but it's worth noting that he did pitch six shutout frames against New York last September. Take Arizona (8*). |
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04-02-24 | Rockies v. Cubs -1.5 | 2-12 | Win | 115 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. Kyle Freeland remains in the Rockies rotation for another year and if his season debut was any indication, it's likely to be another long one for the veteran left-hander. Freeland has had previous success in two career starts at Wrigley Field. Those came prior to 2019 though. We can expect the Cubs bats to tee off on the soft-tossing southpaw on Tuesday. Javier Assad is a typical back-of-the-rotation starter but not a bad one by any means. He'll give Chicago 5-6 effective innings against a stuttering Rockies offense on Tuesday. I'm not interested in paying near -200 prices this early in the season but will lay the extra run for a plus-money return with the Cubbies here. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-02-24 | Knicks +3 v. Heat | 99-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Knicks enter this contest off consecutive losses with the most recent coming in demoralizing last-second fashion at home against the Thunder on Sunday. I look for them to bounce back on Tuesday as they head to Miami to take on a Heat team that is 'fat and happy' off consecutive victories. I don't trust the Heat in a home favorite role and note that they're just 14-22 ATS here in South Beach this season. For the Knicks, this is a key 'right the ship' game before returning home to face the Kings followed by a difficult four-game road trip. New York checks in 32-25 ATS in its last 57 contests as a road underdog of six points or less including a 9-7 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take New York (8*). |
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