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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-26-22 | Hawks v. Heat -7 | Top | 94-97 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NBA First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday. |
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04-25-22 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 219.5 | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Brooklyn at 7 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Saturday. That game totalled 212 points which was actually a fairly flattering number given the two teams combined to make just 26 free throws (they average a combined 35 made free throws per game this season) and Brooklyn was held to fewer than 40 made field goals for the second straight contest. Note that two straight games knocking down less than 40 field goals matches the Nets longest such streak this season. It has happened four times previously, with the 'over' going a perfect 4-0 in their next game. I expect a similar outcome here. Brooklyn has been held to 78 or fewer field goal attempts in all three games in this series. If the Nets are finally going to be able to push the pace you figure it happens here as they face elimination and perhaps the Celtics let their guard down defensively just enough with a comfortable 3-0 series lead. Note that the Nets got off 99 and 94 field goal attempts in their two regular season matchups against the Celtics on this floor. There's little reason to expect any sort of letdown from the Celtics offense here. They're on an incredible run at that end of the floor, making good on 45, 56, 43, 43, 54, 42, 39 and 42 made field goals over their last eight games. In the lone outlier - Game 2 of this series - they still managed to score 114 points in a game that would have eclipsed the total we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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04-25-22 | Rockies v. Phillies -182 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Colorado at 6:45 pm et on Monday. The Rockies are coming off consecutive victories in Detroit, which came on the heels of a 13-0 drubbing in the opener of that series. We've surprisingly seen the Rockies win four of their first five road games so far this season - notable when you consider they're 10-32 in road games in the first half of the season going back to last year. I expect them to hit a speedbump in Philadelphia on Monday. The Phillies just wrapped up a disappointing series loss at home against the Brewers. Remember, last week they also dropped two of three games against these same Rockies in Colorado. Still, I believe the steep price is warranted here. Kyle Gibson will take the ball for Philadelphia. Including a victory over the A's earlier this season, Gibson has posted a 12-2 team record in 14 home starts going back to the start of last year. He faced the Rockies last week and despite the Phils falling short by a 6-5 score, Gibson didn't pitch all that poorly, allowing only three earned runs in six innings - not bad for a start at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Here, Gibson will get the opportunity to face the Rockies at home for the first time in his career. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He opposed Gibson last week and allowed only two earned runs over five innings in that 6-5 victory. While he's had success facing the Phils at home over the course of his career (3-0 team record in three starts), he's gone winless in a pair of previous outings here in Philadelphia, including a 6-1 defeat last season in which he allowed four earned runs over six frames. Even if Freeland pitches well here, there's no guarantee that the Rockies bullpen can hold up its end of the bargain. The Colorado 'pen has posted an ugly 7.98 ERA and 1.86 WHIP over its last seven games. The Rockies have already blown three saves this season. On the flip side, the Phillies 'pen has posted a less than impressive 5.40 ERA but a more respectable 1.29 WHIP over its last seven games. Note that the Phils relief corps has combined to record a 3.93 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with three converted saves and none blown at home this season. Take Philadelphia (4*). |
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04-25-22 | Juventus v. Sassuolo Calcio UNDER 3 | Top | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Soccer Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sassuolo and Juventus at 2:45 pm et on Monday. I can't help but feel that both sides would be satisfied with a low-scoring draw in this Monday Serie A matchup. Juventus sits fairly comfortable inside the top four in the Serie A table, five points ahead of fifth-place Roma with this being its match-in-hand. Sassuolo is in no man's land in some sense, sitting 10th in the table, a whopping 21 points north of relegation but 10 points outside the coveted top six spots. We're dealing with a relatively high posted total here due largely to the fact that each of the last 10 meetings in this series has gone 'over' 2.5 goals. With that being said, Juventus has seen four of its last five matches overall stay 'under' 2.5 goals. Sassuolo will likely take on a rather defensive shape here as it looks to break a streak of seven consecutive matches allowing at least one goal. However, I also expect Juventus to take a rather cautious approach as it has yielded at least a goal in six consecutive matches against Sassuolo and will be looking to keep its three match undefeated streak intact. While a 'push' is always a fairly probable outcome when dealing with 'on the nose' totals such as this one (the standard total is set at 3.0 at the time of writing), I believe there's a good chance we see a 1-0, 1-1 or 2-0 outcome here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-24-22 | Wild v. Predators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games. I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday, however. Minnesota rolled to a 6-3 win over the expansion Kraken on Friday night. Seattle seemingly woke a sleeping giant in that contest, jumping out to an early 2-0 lead before the Wild exploded for six goals. That was Minnesota's second straight game scoring six goals. Note, however, that both of those contests came at home. The Wild have scored three goals or less in four of their last five road games. They've yet to score more than two goals in a game against the Predators this season, losing all three previous matchups. Minnesota is currently missing a number of key contributors due to injury, including Matt Dumba, Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Foligno and Jordan Greenway. The Preds will be looking to bounce back from a 6-2 drubbing in Tampa last night. The good news is, Nashville has been much better defensively here at home, allowing just 2.6 goals per game this season. Note that the Wild average just 2.8 goals per game with an average total of 5.0 goals when playing on the road after scoring 4+ goals in consecutive games this season, as is the case here. The 'under' has cashed at a 10-3 clip in that situation. Similarly, the 'under' is 17-7 with the Wild playing on the road after consecutive games totalling 7+ goals, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 5.5 goals in that spot. Finally, I'll point out that the 'under' has cashed in 21 of the last 35 meetings here in Music City, with an average total of just 5.1 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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04-24-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 225 | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Denver at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series on Thursday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday. We're actually dealing with the highest posted total of the series so far after the first three games all found their way 'over' the total. As I noted in my analysis of my 'under' play in Game 3, the pace hasn't necessarily been there to dictate such high-scoring results. The same held true in Game 3 but both teams simply shot the lights out. Golden State knocked down 41-of-74 field goal attempts while Denver made good on 40-of-80 of its field goal attempts. Golden State knocked down four more three-pointers than its season average away from home in Game 3, while also getting to the line seven more times than its road average. Facing elimination, I do expect the Nuggets to put forth a more disciplined defensive effort here. Meanwhile, the Warriors lukewarm defensive effort in Game 3 was only a blip during an incredible run. They've held seven of their last nine opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited six of their last eight opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 72-47 with the Warriors playing on the road off three or more consecutive ATS wins while the Nuggets have posted a 19-43 o/u record when playing at home after allowing their previous opponent to shoot 55% or better, as is the case here. Take the under (6*). |
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04-24-22 | Blue Jays v. Astros -126 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Toronto at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Astros have inexplicably lost four consecutive games since opening their current homestand with a decisive 8-3 win over the Angels on Monday. I look for them to salvage the finale of this three-game series against the Blue Jays on Sunday. What better pitcher to bounce back against than Yusei Kikuchi. The Astros are familiar with the left-hander from his days with Seattle. Kikuchi has posted a career 6.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP with a 4-7 team record in 11 outings against Houston. Meanwhile, Astros starter Luis Garcia last faced the Blue Jays last June in Toronto, allowing just one earned run over six innings in a 6-3 Astros victory. While the series hasn't gone well for the home side so far, the Astros are actually catching the Blue Jays at the right time as Toronto has yet to really heat up at the plate. The Jays check in having scored four runs or less in seven of their last nine games. Take Houston (7*). |
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04-24-22 | Marlins v. Braves -123 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta over Miami at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. It's been a rough week for the Braves as they've dropped three of five games against the Dodgers and Marlins. They can salvage a series victory here, however, heading into an off day on Monday. I look for them to do just that. Note that Atlanta checks in 29-11 when coming off four or five losses over their last six games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 2.8 runs on average in that situation. The Marlins on the other hand are a long-term 21-53 when playing on the road after scoring 8+ runs in their previous game, which is also the situation here, outscored by an average margin of 1.4 runs in that spot. Note that Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo faced the Braves once last season, allowing four earned runs on four hits and five walks in just three innings in an 11-9 loss last August. Bryce Elder will counter for Atlanta and he should be confident given he worked into the sixth inning and allowed just three earned runs in a 16-4 victory over Washington in his lone previous home start this season. While the Braves bullpen hasn't been as good as we've come to expect out of the gates this season, it has managed to convert six of seven save opportunities. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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04-23-22 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars -250 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Seattle at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. It's really only at this point of the season that we tend to reach into this price range to back a moneyline in the NHL but in this particular case it's warranted. In fact, I believe the line could be even higher. The Kraken seemingly ran out of gas last night in Minnesota, jumping ahead 2-0 before falling by a 6-3 score. Now they're playing their third game in four nights, in three different cities, and quite simply in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Stars are back home after an 0-3 western Canadian road trip. Note that they're 24-13 on home ice this season and check in averaging 3.9 goals per game when coming off four or five losses in their last six games this season, as is the case here. The Kraken average only 2.6 goals per game on the road this season, where they've won just 11 of 38 games. Also note that the Stars are 33-20 when seeking revenge for a loss by 2+ goals against an opponent over the last three seasons, which is the situation here, outscoring the opposition by 0.3 goals on average in that spot. The Kraken skated to a 4-1 home win over the Stars on April 3rd but it's certainly worth noting that they caught the Stars in a favorable spot on that night as Dallas was playing the final leg of a four-game in six-night road trip - one in which it had won the first three games. It's a much different story here. Take Dallas (4*). |
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04-23-22 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 222 | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We haven't touched this series since cashing with the first half 'over' in Game 1 last Sunday. Game 2 ended up being lower-scoring than Game 1, ultimately staying 'under' the total and as a result we're dealing with a lower total for Game 3 on Saturday. I believe it's the wrong move. Note that the Nets managed to get off just 78 and 76 field goal attempts in the first two games of this series, yet still scored 114 and 107 points. The 107 points in Game 2 matched their lowest scoring output going all the way back to March 3rd. Interestingly, they followed up that 107-point effort on March 3rd with a 120-point performance in a game that totalled 246 points against the Celtics on March 6th. We can anticipate the pace ticking up a bit with the scene shifting to Brooklyn for Game 3. Note that going back to March 27th the Nets have allowed their last seven opponents here at home to get off 98, 100, 89, 99, 84, 102 and 92 field goal attempts. In the two contests where we didn't see their opponents attempt 90+ field goals, we still saw 239 and 225 total points. The Celtics actually made good on just 39 field goals in Game 2 of this series yet still scored 114 points. In each of their previous six contests they had knocked down 42+ field goals and they check in shooting 41-of-88 on average away from home this season. In two regular season matchups here in Brooklyn, the C's made good on 46 and 50 field goals so they're certainly comfortable shooting on this floor. Take the over (8*). |
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04-23-22 | Red Sox v. Rays -110 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Boston at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox took the opener of this series in a game that could have easily gone either way. Both of these teams are off to disappointing 7-7 starts. In a game where the pitching is virtually a 'wash', I'll go with what I believe to be the better offense in a bounce-back spot on Saturday. Garrett Whitlock has been effective out of the bullpen for the Red Sox during the early stages of his career but will be making his first big league start here. Meanwhile, the Rays will turn to J.P. Feyereisen in an 'opener' role, much like he served in Chicago last week as the Rays defeated the White Sox 9-3. Despite scoring just three runs last night, Tampa Bay does check in averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last week. The Red Sox have had a slightly tougher time generating runs, averaging 3.4 runs per contest over that stretch. Here, we'll note that the Rays are an impressive 30-11 in their last 41 home games as a favorite of -150 or less. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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04-22-22 | Capitals v. Coyotes UNDER 6.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Arizona at 10:35 pm et on Friday. The Coyotes have now seen each of their last six games go 'over' the total. I look for a different story to unfold on Friday, however. For the Capitals, this is a game they might just look to 'manage' as they have a difficult stretch coming up to end the season, beginning a stretch of four games in six nights on Sunday at home against Toronto. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-1 with the Coyotes coming off consecutive games in which both teams scored 3+ goals, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 4.0 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also 9-2 with Arizona coming off consecutive games in which it scored 3+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of 4.8 goals. While the Coyotes are by no means a stout defensive team, they have given up just 2.1 goals per game with an average total of only 4.7 goals when coming off a home loss against a division opponent this season (seven-game sample size), which is the situation here. Note that these two teams have met once previously this season, with the Capitals skating to a 2-0 home victory back in October. Take the under (9*). |
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04-22-22 | Rangers v. A's OVER 7.5 | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Rangers offense hasn't exactly lived up to its lofty expectations so far this season but we saw signs of a breakout last night as they produced eight runs, rallying from a 5-0 deficit to win 8-6 in Seattle. I'm confident they can build on that performance against A's starter Adam Oller, who has allowed seven earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work this season, not to mention an A's bullpen that has yet to enjoy an off day this season. On the flip side, I'm not counting on Rangers starter Glenn Otto to shut down the A's offense. He checks in having allowed seven earned runs through his first two starts this season, spanning seven innings. The Rangers bullpen, meanwhile, started bad and has only gotten worse, posting a 5.65 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over its last seven games. Take the over (5*). |
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04-22-22 | Royals v. Mariners UNDER 8 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Friday. We saw a high-scoring affair in Seattle last night as the Mariners fell by an 8-6 score against Texas. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Friday as Seattle hosts Kansas City. The Royals have scored four runs or less in six straight games and have produced a grand total of six runs in each of their last two three-game series'. They'll likely have their hands full with Mariners starter Chris Flexen tonight. He's struggled through his first two outings this season but I see this as an ideal bounce-back spot as he faces a Royals club he held to just one earned run over 5 2/3 innings against last September. Behind Flexen is a Mariners bullpen that has been lights out for the most part this season, checking in having posted a 1.61 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over its last seven contests. Brad Keller will counter for Kansas City. He's been dealing out of the gate this season, working at least six innings in each of his first two starts, giving up just two earned runs in 13 innings. While the Royals bullpen got off to a bit of a rocky start this season, it has since turned it around, recording a collective 0.69 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over its last seven games. Take the under (4*). |
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04-22-22 | Orioles v. Angels -170 | 5-3 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Baltimore at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Angels are starting to put together a nice early season run, having won seven of their last nine games. They have the benefit of coming off an off day yesterday while the Orioles were wrapping up another losing series in Oakland. Baltimore has won just four of 13 games so far this season which is about what we expected. I look for it to fall short again on Friday. Bruce Zimmermann has been a bright spot in the Baltimore rotation. He's yet to allow a run through two starts - both victories. His run of good fortune likely comes to an end here, however, and even if it doesn't, I'm not convinced the Orioles bullpen is well-positioned to hold up its end of the bargain. The O's 'pen has already logged more than 60 innings this season and they haven't had an off day since April 14th. Note that Zimmermann has yet to last beyond the fifth inning. He hasn't made it through the sixth in any of his 13 outings going back to the start of last season. Reid Detmers will counter for Los Angeles. He's labored through his first two starts this season but I expect a better performance here as he faces an O's lineup that checks in averaging just 1.6 runs per game and hitting .211 on the road this season. I mentioned the Angels had the day off on Thursday, giving their bullpen a much needed break. After struggling at the start of the season, Los Angeles' relief corps has posted a collective 2.67 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 30 1/3 innings of work over its last seven games. Take Los Angeles (3*). |
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04-22-22 | Heat v. Hawks UNDER 222 | 110-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Friday. While Game 2 of this series was higher scoring than Game 1, I don't expect that trend to continue as the scene shifts to Atlanta for Game 3 on Friday. Throw away a meaningless regular season finale against Orlando and the Heat are on a tremendous run defensively. Outside of that game against the Magic, they've held their other 16 opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts going back to March 11th. They've also held seven of their last 11 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, the Heat have been on an offensive tear, scoring 111 or more points in seven straight games. I'm not sure it's sustainable, however, noting that they've gotten off 84 or fewer FG attempts in seven of their last eight contests - the lone outlier being that aforementioned game against Orlando. The Hawks may be known as a fast-paced team, yet they've actually held six of their last seven opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts, permitting just 81, 82 and 79 over their last three games. That's not to mention the fact they've limited three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. This will be the seventh meeting between these teams since January. As I like to say, familiarity tends to lend itself to relatively low-scoring basketball and just once in the previous six meetings have we seen either team reach 90 FG attempts (that game still totalled just 206 points). Take the under (9*). |
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04-22-22 | Senators v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' the last time these two teams met in March and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. You would have to go back four games to find the last time the Senators posted an 'under' result. I expect that to change here. Note that Ottawa is averaging a woeful 1.3 goals per game with an average total of 5.3 goals when coming off a road game in which both teams scored 3+ goals this season, as is the case following Tuesday's 4-3 win in Vancouver. The 'under' is 20-7 with the Sens coming off a game that totalled 7+ goals this season, leading to an average total of just 5.2 goals. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets have posted a 3-11 o/u record when playing at home off a one-goal loss over the last three seasons, which is the situation here, resulting in an average total of 4.4 goals in that spot. We're likely to see a matchup between Anton Forsberg and Elvis Merzlikins in goal in this one and both have been playing well with Forsberg posting a .919 save percentage over his last four games and Merzlikins having recorded a .920 save percentage over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland +1.5 runs over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I don't think there's much at all separating these two clubs right now yet we're being offered to back the Guardians with an insurance run at a near pk'em price on Friday. We'll gladly take advantage. Cleveland comes in off an impressive three-game series sweep of the White Sox. The Guardians have hit well so far this season, averaging 5.7 runs per game while batting a collective .278. That's certainly more than can be said of the Yankees, who check in hitting a miserable .220 and averaging just 3.0 runs per contest. There's little to choose between tonight's two starting pitchers. Eli Morgan will make his first start of the season for the Guardians. He should bring some confidence having pitched here at Yankee Stadium last season, allowing only one earned run over six innings in an 11-1 victory. Jameson Taillon's lone outing against Cleveland last season didn't go so well as he was lit up for four earned runs in just four innings in a 7-3 loss. Both bullpens have been solid in the early going this season. While the Yanks 'pen has posted a terrific 2.97 ERA over its last seven games, we have started to see some cracks as evidenced by its 1.62 WHIP over that stretch. By contrast, the Guardians relief corps has posted a sparkling 0.93 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Cleveland +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-22-22 | Mainz v. VfL Wolfsburg OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Bundesliga Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Wolfsburg and Mainz at 2:30 pm et on Friday. Both of these squads are dealing with a number of key injuries and absences on the back line with multiple defenders slated to miss another match on Friday. While Mainz is coming off a less-than-thrilling 0-0 draw, I believe we're set up for a relatively high-scoring affair on Friday. Note that Wolfsburg has seen 'over' 2.5 goals in four of its last five contests, conceding the first goal in four of those five matches as well. While Mainz has had little success on 'away' soil this Bundesliga campaign (it checks in 17th in the table when only factoring in 'away' matches) it should feel confident here as it has notched three goals in each of its last two dates with Wolfsburg, most recently securing a 3-0 victory last December. Wolfsburg is fresh off a 6-1 drubbing at the hands of Borussia Dortmund. It has been wildly inconsistent in recent weeks but you have to figure we'll see it come out aggressively here after such a poor showing last time out. Noting that Mainz has gone winless in its last four matches, Wolfsburg will be keen to put it on its back foot early in this one. Note that Mainz has allowed just shy of two goals per contest away from home in Bundesliga action this season. On the flip side, while it is coming off a shotless performance in that nil-nil draw against Stuttgart, it hasn't been held off the scoresheet entirely in an 'away' Bundesliga match since December. Take the over (10*). |
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04-22-22 | Mainz v. VfL Wolfsburg | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'draw' between Wolfsburg and Mainz at 2:30 pm et on Friday. I think a 'draw' serves both of these squads well on Friday with Wolfsburg coming off an ugly 6-1 loss to Borussia Dortmund and Mainz having not delivered an 'away' victory in Bundesliga play since last December. Wolfsburg could certainly use the point here as it sits just six points ahead of Stuttgart, which currently resides in the first of three relegation spots. Meanwhile, Mainz still has faint hope of clawing its way into one of the coveted top-six positions, currently sitting eight points back of Union Berlin. Both of these squads are missing some key pieces on the back line and with that in mind, I don't think an equalizer will ever be far away should either side grab a lead in this match. The line speaks to the high probability of a 'draw' here and we'll go precisely that way on Friday. Take the draw (8*). |
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04-21-22 | Blackhawks v. Kings -250 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Chicago at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. While we're being asked to lay a heavy price to back the Kings here, I believe it could be even higher. Chicago checks in off an overtime win in Arizona last night. Of course, road wins have been hard to come by for the Blackhawks this season as they're just 14-24 away from home, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals. Worse still, when on the road off a win this season, they've allowed an average of 3.9 goals per contest and have been outscored by 1.0 goals on average. The Kings come into this game off consecutive wins and just skated to a 5-2 victory in Chicago back on April 12th. As their playoff push continues, look for the Kings to grab a much-needed two points on Thursday night. Take Los Angeles (4*). |
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04-21-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Denver at 10 pm et on Thursday. The first two games of this series have both gone 'over' the total, even though the pace hasn't necessarily been there. The Warriors shot the lights out in those two games, knocking down 43 and 46 field goals despite being held to just 82 and 84 field goal attempts. That's nothing out of the ordinary as Golden State has actually gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of its last 13 games overall. In terms of the Warriors red hot shooting, we have a catalyst for change at play here as the scene shifts to Denver for Game 3 on Thursday. While the Warriors have been terrific offensively in this series, it's their defense that is absolutely locked in right now, and has been for weeks. They've held six of their last eight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. We've seen them make a concerted effort to frustrate the opposition and slow the pace away from home, limiting 14 of their last 16 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. For the season, they've held opponents to an average of 39-of-86 shooting on the road. For the Nuggets, they obviously need to step up defensively in an 0-2 hole in this series. They've actually held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts with the only exception coming in a meaningless regular season finale against the Lakers. Remember, we saw a matchup between these two teams total just 175 points - a game the Nuggets won - earlier this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 21-10 with the Warriors coming off five or six wins in their last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 215.9 points. In the long-term picture we've seen the 'under' cash at a 72-46 clip with Golden State playing on the road off three or more consecutive ATS wins, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-21-22 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Division F5 Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Texas and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. This has been a fairly low-scoring series through the first two games with Seattle inflicting most of the damage offensively (it has scored 10 of the 14 runs in the series). Here, I'm looking for another low-scoring start. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Rangers bullpen that has been awful in the early going this season (5.43 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 54 2/3 IP). Rangers starter Taylor Hearn has been average at best through two starts, which is about all that Texas can really expect from the back-of-the-rotation starter. With that being said, I'm confident he can hold the Mariners average offense in check here, noting that he faced them twice last season, allowing only two earned runs in 8 2/3 innings. Marco Gonzalez will counter for Seattle. He'll have the benefit of facing a Rangers lineup that while explosive on paper, has yet to wake from its early season slumber (Texas has scored nine runs over its last four games combined). Gonzalez is coming off a scintillating seven-inning performance against the Astros and checks in having allowed just two earned runs over his last three starts against Texas, spanning 20 1/3 innings of work. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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04-21-22 | Twins -113 v. Royals | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota first five innings over Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The Royals have gotten the better of the Twins so far in this series but I look for Minnesota to answer back - at least early on in Thursday's series finale. Twins starter Joe Ryan has to feel pretty good about himself after limiting the Red Sox to just one earned run over six innings in their home opener last Friday. Now he looks to help Minnesota avoid its first three-game losing streak of the season. It's not as if the Royals bats have been alive in the early stages of this season, averaging just 2.9 runs per game and hitting .216 as a team here at home. Kansas City starter Zack Greinke isn't fooling anyone at this stage of his career. He's managed just a single strikeout while allowing 10 hits in 11 innings through his first two outings. The Twins saw him once last season, scoring three runs over six innings. I look for them to improve on that performance here as they bounce back after facing a pair of left-handed starters to open the series. We'll back the Twins in the first five innings only here as we look to avoid a Minnesota bullpen that has struggled. Take Minnesota first five innings (5*). |
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04-21-22 | Giants v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and New York at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. I'm not expecting much in the way of offense on 'getaway day' in Queens on Thursday afternoon. After a relatively high-scoring opener reached nine total runs in this series, we've seen the last two games total a combined 11 runs. I like the starting pitching matchup here with Anthony DeSclafani going for the Giants against Cookie Carrasco of the Mets. DeSclafani is off to an unimpressive start with an ERA north of four and a WHIP approaching 1.70 through two outings. I expect him to turn it around here, however, noting that he has posted a solid 9:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 8 2/3 innings. It's not as if the Mets are tearing the cover off the ball, hitting a collective .247 here at home this season. Cookie Carrasco has allowed just five hits and one earned run over 10 2/3 innings to open the campaign. Like DeSclafani, he faces a favorable matchup here with the Giants hitting just .208 as a team on the road this season. Both bullpens are reliable to say the least. The San Francisco bullpen has posted a collective 1.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while the Mets 'pen has recorded a 3.28 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Take the under (6*). |
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04-20-22 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 224.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
NBA First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. The first game of this series was extremely low-scoring, totalling just 179 points. As a result, we're working with a considerably lower posted total for Game 2. I believe it will prove too low. Note that the Bulls did get off 96 field goal attempts in Game 1. They simply weren't able to make good on their opportunities, knocking down just 31 of them. Note that they had previous made good on 42+ field goals in five of their last eight contests. Here, we'll note that Chicago has posted a 13-3 o/u record after scoring 100 points or less in its previous game this season. The Bucks have now yielded their opponents' 90+ field goal attempts in 13 of their last 16 games overall. So again, the opportunities will likely be there for the Bulls on Wednesday - it will be up to them to take advantage. Here, we'll note that the Bucks have allowed 113.1 points per game when playing at home off a win this season (compared to their season scoring average allowed at home of 110.5 points per game), resulting in an average total of 228.2 points. The Bulls are not a good defensive team. The Bucks simply had an off shooting night in Game 1, hitting just 34-of-84 field goal attempts. We'll chalk that poor performance up to rust as they hadn't played in a week. Prior to that contest (and their meaningless regular season finale in Cleveland), the Bucks had knocked down 50, 42, 46, 49 and 50 field goals in their last five games. Leading into this series, Chicago had allowed 45, 44, 46, 43, 52 and 46 made field goals over its last six contests, yielding 117+ points in each of those games. The Bulls haven't seen consecutive games go 'under' the total since a three-game 'under' streak from March 26th to 29th. Milwaukee last posted consecutive 'under' results during a three-game 'under' streak from March 22nd to 26th. Expect a much different story to unfold than we saw in the series opener. Take the over (10*). |
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04-20-22 | Twins v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams to open this series last night as the Royals pulled out a 4-3 victory. With the 'under' having gone 3-1 in the Twins last four games and a perfect 4-0 in the Royals last four contests we're being afforded a reasonably low total to work with here - too low in my opinion. There's a reason the Padres were willing to cut Chris Paddack loose, shipping him to Minnesota at the start of the season. He struggled in his Twins debut, allowing three earned runs on six hits over just four innings against the Dodgers last week. I'm not convinced he'll fare any better here. Behind Paddack is a struggling Minnesota bullpen that has posted a collective 5.28 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 46 innings of work this season. It's a similar story for the Royals 'pen, as it has recorded a 4.69 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 38 1/3 innings pitched. That Kansas City bullpen could get put to work early in this one as starter Daniel Lynch has worked more than five innings just twice in his last eight starts going back to last season. Lynch labored through his first start this season, allowing six earned runs on nine hits, including three home runs, in five innings against the Cardinals. It's been a case of 'feast-or-famine' for both offenses in the early going this season but I expect both to feast on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-20-22 | Yankees v. Tigers +1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 runs over New York at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Yankees took the opener of this series last night by a 4-2 score. They actually haven't won consecutive games since opening the season with back-to-back wins over the Red Sox. I expect them to have their hands full with the Tigers here. While Luis Severino certainly has the better numbers of tonight's two starters this season but of course we're talking about a small sample size of just two starts. I don't believe there's all that much separating the two pitchers. Tigers starter Eduardo Rodriguez has faced the Yankees plenty over the course of his career (remember he came over from the Red Sox). He posted a 4-1 team record in five starts against New York last season, allowing just eight earned runs in 23 innings. I think he's catching the Yankees bats at the right time, noting that they've scored more than four runs just twice in 11 games this season. They check in hitting a collective .187 and averaging 2.7 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Both bullpens have been terrific in the early going this season with the Yanks relief corps having posted a 1.80 ERA and 1.18 WHIP and Detroit's 'pen recording a 2.85 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Expect a tightly-contested affair on Wednesday. Take Detroit +1.5 runs (4*). |
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04-20-22 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 1-5 | Win | 105 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night and I expect a similar story to unfold in Wednesday's series finale. Charlie Morton will take the ball for the Braves. He is coming off a poor outing against the Padres but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. Morton has posted a 29% hard-hit ball percentage - nearly 10% lower than the MLB average while his K, HR and BB rates have all been in line with his career averages through his first two starts, spanning 10 1/3 innings this season. Behind Morton is a Braves bullpen that has held up well in the early going this season, recording a 3.81 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with five saves converted and none blown. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 22-10 with the Braves playing on the road after losing two of their last three games going back to last season, resulting in an average total of 8.1 runs. The 'under' is also 31-19 with Atlanta playing on the road with the total set between 7.0 and 8.5 over the same stretch, leading to an average total of just 7.7 runs. The Dodgers will turn to Tony Gonsolin who is likely to only work a few innings here. Gonsolin always seems to be serviceable for the Dodgers and his first two outings this season have been no different as he has allowed just one earned run in seven innings. Of course, the Los Angeles relief corps has been terrific so far this season, posting a 2.00 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 45 collective innings of work. Take the under (6*). |
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04-19-22 | Senators v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've gone to the well a number of times when it comes to Senators 'unders' this season and we'll do so again here. Both teams played last night. The Senators dropped a 4-2 decision in Seattle while the Canucks rolled to a 6-2 victory over Dallas to keep their playoff hopes alive. This is a game I look for Vancouver to 'manage' in a sense. Keep in mind, the Canucks will begin a stretch of five games in nine nights (in four different cities) to close out the regular season on Thursday night in Minnesota. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-10 with the Sens coming off a game in which they allowed 4+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of just 5.7 goals. The 'under' is also 13-5 with Ottawa playing on the road off consecutive losses this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.6 goals. While the Canucks come in off five consecutive 'over' results, their home games are still averaging just 5.8 total goals this season. You would have to go back five meetings between these two teams here in Vancouver to find the last time a game totalled more than six goals. Take the under (7*). |
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04-19-22 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Suns | 125-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Few are giving the Pelicans any chance of winning this series. While I tend to agree, I do expect them to give the Suns all they can handle in Game 2 on Tuesday night. Everything went right for Phoenix in Game 1. It shot the lights out (just shy of 54% from the field). Interestingly, however, New Orleans actually got plenty of looks, hoisting up 95 field goal attempts. It got to the free throw line five more times than Phoenix. In other words, there's reason for optimism entering Game 2. The Pelicans quite simply didn't make their shots in Game 1. Keep in mind, this is a team that had made good on 40+ field goals in 23 of their last 24 games entering this series. Also note that the Pelicans have limited three of their last seven opponents to 78 or fewer FG attempts, including the Suns in Game 1 (they attempted 78 field goals). Here, we'll note that New Orleans is 36-24 when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.5 points on average in that situation. The Suns have outscored opponents by only 4.1 points on average when coming off a double-digit home win over the last two seasons (40-game sample size), as is the case here. While the Pelicans haven't been a great road team this season going 18-25 SU (one of those wins came here in Phoenix), they've only been outscored by an average margin of 3.3 points. I'm expecting a competitive affair on Tuesday. Take New Orleans (9*). |
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04-19-22 | Cardinals v. Marlins UNDER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring games. In the case of the Marlins, they're fresh off three consecutive 'over' results. I expect a different story to unfold here, however. Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright didn't pitch well last time out. We know he can still pitch though, noting that he tossed six shutout innings against the Pirates in his first outing this season. He posted a 3.05 ERA (his lowest season-long ERA since 2015) and a 1.06 WHIP last year. Jesus Luzardo had a scintillating Marlins debut last week, striking out 12 over five innings of one-run ball against the Angels. While he isn't likely to duplicate that effort here, I still expect him to pitch well against a Cardinals team that has hit a collective .235 on the road so far this season (limited sample size, I know). Going back to the end of last season, Luzardo has allowed just four earned runs while striking out 28 and walking just three in his last 14 1/3 innings of work. While he's certainly gone through some rough times on the mound in recent years, remember he finished top-eight in A.L. Rookie of the Year voting as a member of the A's just two years ago. Both bullpens have been solid in the early going this season with the Cards 'pen posting a 2.14 ERA and 1.13 WHIP and the Marlins relief corps recording a collective 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Both 'pens have worked 35 or less innings so far this season and both come off an off day on Monday so it should be all hands on deck here. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Cardinals coming off a one-run loss going back to last season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 6.3 runs. The 'under' is also 23-11 with the Marlins playing at home after winning two of their last three games over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 7.2 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-22 | Hurricanes v. Coyotes OVER 6 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Monday. I'm not sure whether the Coyotes are actually 'tanking' or if the talent level simply isn't there to compete on a nightly basis (especially given their injury situation). Regardless, opponents are scoring against them at will and they're likely going to be in tough again on Monday as they host a Hurricanes squad looking to bounce back from consecutive losses. Note that Carolina's road games have been considerably higher-scoring than their home games this season, averaging 6.3 total goals per contest with the 'over' cashing at a 20-14-3 clip. In Canes road games with the total set at 6.0 or higher, we've seen an average total of 6.9 goals scored. Also note that the 'over' is 7-1 with the Coyotes playing at home after scoring two goals or less in consecutive games this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 7.7 goals scored. Both teams are in tough between the pipes right now. Frederik Andersen had to leave the Canes last game due to a lower body injury. Antti Raanta has performed well at times this season but has seemingly hit the wall lately, posting an .873 save percentage over his last four games. Meanwhile, Coyotes goaltender Karel Vejmelka has had to shoulder far too much of the load in his rookie season, making 44 starts. Over his last four games he has recorded a dismal .817 save percentage with the 'over' cashing at a 3-0-1 clip. Take the over (10*). |
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04-18-22 | Nuggets +7 v. Warriors | 106-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Monday. The Warriors rode the emotional wave of Steph Curry's return to an easy 16-point win in Saturday's series-opener. Golden State was ahead by 20 points entering the fourth quarter in that contest as the Nuggets simply didn't bring enough intensity to stay competitive. I do expect a strong response from Denver on Monday, noting that it has already won twice in San Francisco this season. Here, we'll note that the Nuggets check in 17-7 when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 8.5 points on average in that situation. Better still, they're 14-4 ATS when on the road seeking to avenge consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, which is also the situation here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.0 point in that spot. Interestingly, the Warriors have only gotten off 81, 81 and 82 field goal attempts over their last three games. In fact, they've been held to 84 or fewer FG attempts in seven of their last eight games overall. Denver on the other hand, has hoisted up 93+ FG attempts in three of its last four games. That while holding three of its last four opponents to fewer than 90 attempts from the field. I'm expecting a more competitive affair than we saw on Saturday as the Nuggets look to even up the series before heading back to Denver. Take Denver (6*). |
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04-18-22 | Jazz v. Mavs +5.5 | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Utah at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The Luka-less Mavericks battled hard but ultimately fell by six points in the opener of this series on Saturday. While most have written the Mavs off as long as Luka is unable to return (it doesn't look like he'll play on Monday), I'm confident they can get back at the Jazz in what is essentially a 'must-win' game on Monday. For the third straight game, we saw Utah held to 37 or fewer made field goals on Saturday. As I noted in my analysis of my 'under' play in that game, the Mavs certainly lose a ton offensively with Luka Doncic sidelined, but that's not the case at the defensive end of the floor. Dallas can be an elite defensive team at times and we've certainly seen that lately as it has held three of its last four opponents to 36 or fewer made field goals. Also note that four of the Mavs last seven opponents have only managed to get off 83 or fewer field goal attempts. I certainly don't expect anything to come easy for the Jazz offensively on Monday. You would have to go back five games to find the last time Utah attempted more than 88 field goals. Here, we'll note that the Mavs are 16-3 ATS when coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less this season, outscoring opponents by 0.4 points on average in that spot. The Jazz are a woeful 10-21 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games this season, as is the case here. They've been anything but reliable away from home, going 18-24 ATS including 4-12 ATS over their last 16 contests in enemy territory. Take Dallas (10*). |
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04-18-22 | Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Monday. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Pirates posted an 'under' result. I look for that to change on Monday, however, as the Buccos head to Milwaukee to face the Brewers. I would consider both of tonight's starters underrated in some sense. Zach Thompson was effective over four innings in his first start with the Pirates (he came over from Miami in the offseason). Thompson quietly posted a 3.24 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 75 innings pitched with the Marlins last season. For his career he has posted a 34.5% hard-hit ball percentage, nearly 4.5% below the MLB average over that period. Behind Thompson is a Pirates bullpen that has been terrific in the early going this season, posting a collective 2.98 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 42 1/3 innings. Brewers starter Eric Lauer didn't have his best stuff in his season debut but still hung in there, allowing three earned runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Orioles. I expect him to fare better in his first home start of the season, noting that he faced the Pirates once here last season, tossing five shutout innings. He owns a career 2.63 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in seven career starts against Pittsburgh. Like the Pirates, the Brewers have been solid out of the bullpen, recording a collective 3.02 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. As a team, the Brewers are still hitting just .212 and averaging 3.1 runs per game on the season. The Pirates, meanwhile, check in hitting .266 as a team while averaging 4.4 runs per game but figure to suffer some regression in this, just their second 'away' series. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-22 | Roma v. Napoli OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
Serie A Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Napoli and Roma at 1 pm et on Monday. Napoli enters this match undefeated in the last four matches in this series having not allowed a single goal in the last three. So it's understandable that we're dealing with a reasonably low total in Monday's contest. However, both teams have seen plenty of goals in their recent matches. Napoli has seen six of its last seven contests go 'over' 2.5 goals. The same can be said for Roma in four of its last five matches. Given Napoli has seen both teams score in nine of its last 10 matches, I'm confident Roma can find at least a goal here. Note also that Roma has managed to find the back of the net first in four of its last five contests overall. As much as neither side will want to give an inch as they both sit in the coveted top-six in Serie A play, I'm anticipating some fireworks on Monday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-17-22 | Nets v. Celtics OVER 223.5 | Top | 114-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
NBA First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Brooklyn and Boston at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. I expect this series to get off to a high-scoring start on Sunday afternoon in Boston as the Nets and Celtics match up for the fifth time this season. We saw the Nets offense get in gear down the stretch, making good on 41+ field goals in eight of their last nine games. Over their last four contests they knocked down 41, 43, 52 and 45 field goals. You would have to go all the way back to March 3rd to find the last time they didn't score 110+ points in a game. An issue, however, has been their loose play defensively. In their last two games they allowed the Pacers and Cavs to get off 104 and 92 field goal attempts. Seven of their last nine opponents made good on 40+ field goals. The Celtics are certainly well-positioned to take advantage. They've knocked down 43+ field goals in five straight games, eclipsing the 50 field goal mark in two of those contests. While you could argue their last couple of games didn't really matter, the C's did yield 97 and 102 field goal attempts to the opposition and I expect to see the Nets force the issue early in this one. We'll play the first half only as I have noticed a trend in Celtics playoff games where the defense picks up and the pace slows as the game progresses. Early on, I look for both sides to find plenty of scoring success here. Take the first half over (10*). |
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04-17-22 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
A.L. West Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 2:35 pm et on Sunday. The Rangers opened this series with a big win on Thursday but have proceeded to drop the last two games with their pitching failing them. Here, I look for Texas to bounce back, noting that the Angels have gone 12-20 when coming off a win by 4+ runs going back to last season, outscored by 1.3 runs on average along the way. Meanwhile, Texas has gone 15-8 when playing at home off a loss by 4+ runs over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by 0.2 runs on average. There's little to separate the two starters today with Jose Suarez taking the ball for the Angels against Rangers veteran Martin Perez. The same goes for the two bullpens as both have struggled in the early going this season. It's been a number of years since the Angels last reeled off three straight wins over the Rangers by 2+ runs. Look for Texas to bounce back here. Take Texas +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-16-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
First Five Innings Total of the Week. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. We've seen these two teams take turns beating up on each other in the first two games of this series with the Brewers taking the opener 5-1 before the Cardinals answered back with a 10-1 victory last night. Here, I look for both teams to show up offensively, particularly early in the game. We'll play the first five innings only as both bullpens have been solid in the early going this season and we'll look to avoid them here. The starters on the other hand were not good in their respective season debuts. Steven Matz made his first start as a Cardinal and proceeded to get smashed for nine hits and seven earned runs in just three innings against the Pirates. Adrian Houser couldn't make it through the fourth inning against the Orioles. Both starters will settle down a little bit here, but I'm not convinced they have any sort of advantage against the opposing hitters here. Expect early fireworks. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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04-16-22 | Braves v. Padres OVER 8.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and San Diego at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. Both lineups are set up favorably against the starting pitchers in this, the third game of the series between the Braves and Padres on Saturday afternoon. While Braves starter Ian Anderson struggled in his season debut, giving up five earned runs in 2 2/3 innings, Padres starter Nick Martinez actually fared well, giving up just a single earned run over five frames. Both bullpens have been shaky at best with the Braves relief corps posting a 4.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP and the Padres 'pen recording a 5.17 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. We know the talent level up and down both lineups and off last night's relatively low-scoring affair (seven total runs), I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Saturday. Take the over (6*). |
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04-16-22 | Wild v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and St. Louis at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. We've seen three straight meetings between these two teams go 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 5-0 with St. Louis playing at home off a win by 4+ goals this season with those contests totalling an average of just 4.2 goals. The Blues check in playing solid defensive hockey, having allowed two goals or less in five of their last six games. The Wild have given up three goals or less in five of their last seven contests and come in off back-to-back 'under' results. While they have scored a whopping 14 goals over their last three games, they'll be up against a Blues squad that allows only 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season. Take the under (6*). |
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04-16-22 | Rays +1.5 v. White Sox | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 runs over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Rays on the run-line last night but they still dropped their third game in a row. I look for them to give the White Sox all they can handle on Saturday afternoon as they look to finally end their skid. Note that the Rays are 18-6 when coming off four or five losses in their last six games going back to last season, outscoring opponents by 1.6 runs on average in that situation. They're also a profitable 30-22 as a road underdog over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.5 runs. Both pitching staffs are relatively even heading into this contest - starters and bullpen - and I'll gladly grab the insurance run with the Rays here. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 runs (4*). |
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04-16-22 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 209.5 | 99-93 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Dallas at 1 pm et on Saturday. I don't think Luka Doncic's absence can be over-exaggerated in this game. He obviously adds so much to the Mavs offense but is by no means a defensive stopper. Dallas' path to staying competitive in this game comes by slowing things down and ultimately limiting Utah's scoring opportunities, something it has proven to be able to do, particularly here at home this season. Note that the Mavs have yielded opponents just 38-of-85 shooting on average at home. Down the stretch we saw them allow fewer than 90 field goal attempts in eight of their last 10 games. However, without Luka you do have to wonder where their offense will come from. Note that Dallas only managed to get off 78, 76, 80, 79 and 85 FG attempts over its last five regular season games and that was with Luka in the lineup the majority of the time. The Jazz have been incredibly stingy defensively, holding eight of their last nine opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. While their offense can be explosive at times, that certainly wasn't the case all season long, noting that they made good on 38 or fewer field goals in three of their last five games. In fact, they average just 86 FG attempts per game on the road this season with the 'under' going 22-18-1. The last meeting between these two teams on March 27th got to 214 total points but that was thanks only to the Mavs shooting the lights out. The pace of that game certainly didn't dictate an 'over' result with Utah attempting 89 field goals and Dallas getting off just 77. Take the under (6*). |
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04-15-22 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | 9-6 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Friday. It's been the 'same old Angels' for the most part so far this season with Mike Trout brilliant as usual but the rest of the team lagging considerably behind. We won with the Rangers on the run-line last night and I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with the same play here. The starting pitching matchup is virtually a wash in this one but I'll give the hitting edge to the Rangers here at Globe Life Field, not to mention the slight bullpen advantage with the Halos' relief corps having posted a collective 6.30 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 30 innings of work so far this season. As I noted yesterday, the Angels have struggled as a small favorite in recent years, now 28-40 when priced at -150 or lower over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by 0.6 runs on average along the way. Take Texas +1.5 runs (3*). |
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04-15-22 | Hawks v. Cavs OVER 225 | 107-101 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Cleveland at 7:35 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in the Hawks rout of the Hornets two nights ago but it wasn't by much and here we're dealing with a considerably lower total as Atlanta heads to Cleveland to decide who moves onto the first round of the NBA Playoffs. I believe the total will prove too low. I'm not convinced that Wednesday's 'under' result had more to do with the Hawks superb defense than lousy shooting from the Hornets. Atlanta actually yielded 90 field goal attempts in that contest but Charlotte could make good on only 34 of them. That snapped a streak of five straight games in which the Hawks allowed 40+ made field goals - a streak I expect to pick right back up on Friday. The Cavs come in having knocked down 42, 40, 51 and 41 field goals over their last four games. On the flip side, they've allowed 43+ made field goals in three of their last four contests. The lone game in which they didn't give up 40+ we still saw a whopping 248 total points against Milwaukee. I like the fact that both teams have been forcing the issue offensively, with Atlanta hoisting up 92+ FG attempts in three of its last five games and Cleveland getting off 94 and 92 FG attempts in its last two contests. Three of four regular season meetings between these two teams totalled at least 238 points with both teams attempting 90+ field goals in their most recent matchup on March 31st. Take the over (8*). |
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04-15-22 | Rays v. White Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The White Sox could muster only one run in yesterday's wind-swept 5-1 loss against Seattle and that came only thanks to those blustery winds that led to a couple of Mariners' fielding gaffes. Here, I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair as the Rays roll into the Windy City to face the White Sox on Friday. Both of tonight's starters were effective in their season debuts with Drew Rasmussen working four innings in a 5-3 Rays win over Baltimore and Dylan Cease tossing five frames in a 5-2 White Sox victory over Detroit. I expect more of the same here, perhaps with the two bullpens - which have both been solid in the early going - doing some heavy lifting. The Tampa Bay 'pen has posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through a whopping 40 2/3 innings so far this season while the White Sox relief corps has recorded a 3.14 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 28 2/3 innings. On another rather unfriendly hitting night at Guaranteed Rate Field, I expect runs to come at a premium. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-22 | Rays +1.5 v. White Sox | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 runs over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. In a game where I expect runs to come at a premium, I'll back the Rays with the insurance run as they look to bounce back from an awful home series against the Rays. The White Sox sputtered in the finale of their three-game set against the Mariners, dropping a 5-1 decision yesterday afternoon. It's been a case of feast-or-famine for the White Sox offense in the early going this season and I expect them to have their hands full with the Rays pitching staff led by starter Drew Rasmussen on Friday. Rasmussen didn't have his best stuff in his season debut but he still managed to give up only two earned runs over four innings in a victory over the Orioles. He's catching the White Sox offense at the right time in unfriendly early season hitting conditions at Guaranteed Rate Field on Friday. Note that the Rays bullpen, while overworked in the early going this season, has held up well, posting a 3.76 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 40 2/3 innings. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 runs (3*). |
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04-15-22 | A's v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Oakland and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We'll back the 'over' in the first five innings only in this one as we look to avoid the two bullpens, which have been effective in the early going this season. We have a low-rate starting pitching matchup here with Daulton Jefferies making just his fourth big league start against back of the rotation veteran Ross Stripling. With the two offenses coming in hot I'm confident both can produce in the early going in this one. While it's still very early, I do think the betting markets were a little lower than they should have been on the A's coming out of the gate. Of course, consecutive losses to open the campaign only bolstered that notion. Since then, the A's have gone 4-1, scoring 6+ runs in three of those five contests. Meanwhile, the Jays are coming off a tough series in the Bronx, in unfriendly early season hitting conditions. They'll be more than happy to return to the hitter-friendly confines of the Rogers Centre, where they put up 20 runs in a three-game series against the Rangers last weekend. Take the first five innings over (6*). |
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04-15-22 | Nationals v. Pirates OVER 9 | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Washington and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Friday. We won with this same play last night and I won't hesitate to go right back to the well on Friday. The Nats put up three first inning runs but could only muster one additional run the rest of the way in last night's 9-4 loss. The Pirates are hitting well right now having scored 15 runs over their last two games and they catch another favorable matchup against Nationals starter Erick Fedde on Friday. Of course, Washington is also well-positioned to do some damage against Buccos starter Mitch Keller, who is in line for a bounce-back season but certainly didn't show signs of any sort of turn-around in his season debut, allowing four earned runs over just four innings against the Cardinals. The Nats have hit .273 as a team and averaged 5.5 runs per game in their first four road games this season. Also note that the 'over' is now 27-11 when Washington plays on the road with the total set at 9.0 or 9.5 over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here. By playing the first five innings only, we look to avoid a Pirates bullpen that has been lights out in the early going this season, posting a 2.96 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Take the first five innings over (4*). |
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04-15-22 | AS Monaco v. Rennes OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
Ligue 1 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Stade Rennes and AS Monaco at 3 pm et on Friday. I'm not sure any Ligue 1 team has played as entertaining of a brand of football as Stade Rennes lately, perhaps not even mighty PSG. It enters Friday's showdown with Monaco having gone undefeated over its last five matches but also not recording a single clean sheet over its last six contests. We've seen goals and scoring opportunities aplenty over that stretch and I'm anticipating more of the same on Friday. Monaco comes in playing some of its best football, having reeled off three straight wins, scoring at least two goals in each contest. It sits just a point back of Nice for one of the coveted top-five spots in the Ligue 1 table. Here, we'll note that each of the last five matches between these two squads has totalled 'over' 2.5 goals. We've seen both teams score in each of the last 10 meetings in the series. You would have to go all the way back to March 6th, when it faced bottom-half Ligue 1 squad Angers, to find the last time Stade Rennes didn't concede a goal - seven matches back. Just three matches back Monaco held PSG off the scoresheet in a 3-0 victory, however, it has yielded goals against both Metz and Troyes over its last two contests. I simply like the form that both sides bring to the pitch on Friday and fully expect a 2-1 or better result. Take the over (10*). |
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04-15-22 | Twins v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Boston at 2:10 pm et on Friday. The Red Sox offense was held down for the most part through the first four games this season but you can only hold them down for so long and the Tigers found that out over the last couple of games as Boston produced 14 runs in securing consecutive victories. Here, with favorable hitting conditions at Fenway Park, I'm expecting plenty of offense from both teams. The Twins could manage only two runs in a brief two-game Interleague series against the Dodgers earlier this week. Like the Red Sox, they have an explosive lineup and I'm confident we'll see them bounce back here. Note that the 'over' has gone 46-27 with Minnesota coming off four or five losses in its last six games going back to last season, resulting in an average total of 10.3 runs in that spot. Better still, the 'over' is 11-2 with the Twins playing on the road after scoring three runs or less in consecutive games over the same time frame, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 12.9 runs. There's nothing special about today's pitching matchup with Joe Ryan and Nick Pivetta getting their second turns in the rotation this season. Both struggled in their season debuts. We've also seen the Twins bullpen have a tough time, posting a 3.95 ERA and 1.65 WHIP through 27 1/3 innings this season. The Red Sox bullpen showed some warts in its most recent game after cruising early on. Take the over (6*). |
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04-15-22 | Twins v. Red Sox -122 | 8-4 | Loss | -122 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Minnesota at 2:10 pm et on Friday. The betting markets seem to be giving a lot of respect for the Twins in the early going this season - a little too much in my opinion. Minnesota has dropped four of its first six games overall and now heads to Boston to face a suddenly hot Red Sox offense that just put up 14 runs in bouncing back from a series-opening loss in Detroit to deliver consecutive wins over the Tigers. The Red Sox bats are well-positioned to stay hot in friendly hitting conditions on a breezy Friday afternoon at Fenway Park. There's little to choose between the two starting pitchers today. Both struggled in their season debuts and I'm not convinced either bounces back with a big performance here. With that being said, the Sox have had the clear edge in terms of their bullpen in the early going this season. Boston's relief corps has posted a collective 2.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 25 1/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, the Twins 'pen has recorded a 3.95 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 27 1/3 innings, blowing a save along the way. Take Boston (4*). |
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04-15-22 | Inter Milan v. Spezia Calcio +1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Serie A Game of the Month. My selection is on Spezia +1.5 goals over Inter Milan at 1 pm et on Friday. Inter Milan rolls into Friday's 'away' match against Spezia off consecutive clean sheet victories. In fact, Inter is undefeated in its last eight matches overall. With that being said, I see this as a tricky contest, noting that both teams have been involved in their share of low-scoring affairs lately. Inter has seen each of its last five contests stay 'under' 2.5 goals while the same can be said for Spezia in five of its last six matches. With this match being played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia we'll note that the home side has recorded a goal differential of just -1 goal in the role of host this season. Contrast that with its -21 goal differential in enemy territory. Inter Milan, meanwhile, is tops in the Serie A table when factoring in only 'home' affairs but drops to fifth when only considering 'away' matches. This has been a relatively tight series lately with Inter winning two of the last three matches between the two but with just a +3 goal differential over that stretch. Take Spezia +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-14-22 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I think there's a bit of a 'Shohei-effect' at play here as the Angels open a four-game series in Texas on Thursday. Ohtani pitched well but lasted only 4 2/3 innings in his season debut. Interestingly, we've seen the Angels outscored by an average of 0.8 runs in his 12 starts against A.L. West opponents going back to last season. While Los Angeles enters this game off consecutive wins, it has topped out at six runs through six games this season, going 2-4 when factoring in the -1.5 run-line. Here, the Angels will face the Rangers as a road favorite, noting that they've gone just 28-39 when checking in as a favorite of -150 or less over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.5 runs in that situation. Bettors are down on the Rangers after they dropped a series in Toronto and then proceeded to get swept in a brief two-game set at home against the Rockies. I look for a strong performance from starter Dane Dunning here, however. He struggled in his season debut but those are precisely the type of starters (with a proven track record) that we like to back in their second outing. While the Rangers bullpen hasn't been great, it has posted a 4.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, which is considerably better than that of the Angels relief corps, which checks in sporting a 6.31 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Take Texas +1.5 runs (5*). |
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04-14-22 | Red Wings v. Hurricanes UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Wings aren't scoring with any consistency right now, having found the back of the net 2, 1, 2, 4, 2, 2, 5, 3, 4 and 1 goal over their last 10 games. In a game the Hurricanes will be looking to 'manage' before heading out on the road for two games in three nights beginning Saturday in Colorado, I look for goals to come at a premium. The Canes have actually seen the 'over' cash in each of their last two games after the 'under' had gone 3-1-1 over their previous five contests. They've been incredibly stingy here at home this season, allowing just 2.1 goals per game. Better still, they've given up just 1.4 goals per contest with an average total of only 4.9 goals when playing at home off two or more consecutive wins this season (14-game sample size), as is the case here. Detroit averages just 2.4 goals per game away from home this season with that number dropping to 2.1 when coming off a loss, which is the situation here. Additionally, the 'under' is 20-11 with Carolina playing at home after scoring 3+ goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 5.3 goals. We're able to play this one at 6.5 thanks to the previous two meetings between these two teams this season reaching 8 and 7 goals. The 'under' has still cashed in 15 of the last 25 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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04-14-22 | Nationals v. Pirates OVER 9 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Washington and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Thursday. The Pirates bats are hot off a big day at the plate against the Cubs yesterday. They've scored 6+ runs in two of their last three games and I'm confident they can find continued success early in this one as they go up against Nationals starter Joan Adon, who will be making just his third big league start. Despite recording 12 strikeouts in just 9 2/3 innings, Adon has allowed 10 hits and seven walks, not to mention six earned runs along the way. Washington scored 18 runs and hit .280 as a team in its three-game series in Atlanta. The Nats might be catching Pirates starter J.T. Brubaker at the right time as he was mediocre at best in the Spring and struggled mightily in his first regular season start, yielding four earned runs on four hits and three walks over just four innings against the Cardinals. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Pirates bullpen that has been terrific in the early going, posting a collective 3.57 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 22 2/3 innings of work. Take the first five innings over (6*). |
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04-14-22 | Mariners -105 v. White Sox | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The Mariners have dropped the first two games in this series. In fact, they've lost four games in a row since opening the season with consecutive victories. I like the way they're set up to get back in the win column on Thursday, however, as they wrap up their three-game series in Chicago. Logan Gilbert will get the call for the M's. He pitched well in his season debut, allowing just one earned run over five innings, essentially picking up right where he left off at the end of last season. Gilbert had a brief outing here in Chicago last season, tossing two scoreless innings in a game the Mariners won 3-2. Behind Gilbert is a Seattle bullpen that has posted a collective 3.60 ERA and 0.95 WHIP this season. Jimmy Lambert will get his first start of the season for the White Sox. He made three starts down the stretch last year, pitching reasonably well (at first glance at least), allowing five earned runs in 11 2/3 innings. A closer look shows that he recorded a 43.9% hard-hit ball percentage and a 35.7% fly ball percentage - both considerably higher than MLB averages. After getting very limited work in Spring Training, I expect him to struggle against the Mariners lineup today. Here, we'll note that the Mariners are 11-5 after losing four of their last five games going back to last season, outscoring opponents by 1.3 runs on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the White Sox are a long-term 46-60 when playing at home off consecutive wins by two runs or less, as is the case here, allowing 5.1 runs per game and outscored by 0.7 runs on average in that situation. Take Seattle (10*). |
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04-13-22 | Hornets v. Hawks OVER 237 | Top | 103-132 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 26 m | Show |
Play-in Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Wednesday. This is the highest posted total of the play-in round and it's that high for a reason. The Hornets enter this showdown arguably playing their best offensive basketball of the season, having scored 128, 133 and 124 points over their last three games. They've made good on 40+ field goals in an incredible 15 straight games. Over their last four contests they've knocked down 45, 48, 52 and 48 field goals. While I'm not projecting a break-neck pace to this game, I'm confident both sides can make good on their opportunities. Note that the Hornets have yielded their opponents 40+ made field goals in seven of their last eight games. Two of their last three foes managed to get off 94 or more field goal attempts. The Hawks are certainly capable of taking advantage, having knocked down 43, 43, 42 and 45 field goals over their last four games. In fact, they've made good on 42+ field goals in eight of their last nine contests. However, like the Hornets the Hawks have also been generous defensively, giving up 40+ made field goals in five straight and 20 of their last 21 games overall. The last meeting between these two teams totalled just 222 points back on March 16th and that's contributing to a lower posted total here than we saw on that night. The two teams combined to hit below their average in three-point field goals and free throws in that contest. I believe this game is being projected by oddsmakers to have a pace in the high-80's as far as FG attempts go. Even at that pace I believe the two teams can get 'over' the total but if it ticks up at all, I think we see this game sail well north of the number. Take the over (10*). |
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04-13-22 | Cubs v. Pirates +1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Chicago at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. I don't think there's as much separating these two teams as their early records would indicate. Chicago has won three of its first four games, including last night's 2-1 decision, while Pittsburgh has dropped three of its first four contests. Today's pitching matchup couldn't be any more of a 'wash' with Kyle Hendricks going for the Cubs and Zach Thompson finally making his first start for the Pirates (he was in line to start on Monday before the rain-out in St. Louis). It's been pretty much 'even Steven' as far as the bullpens go so far this season as well with the Cubs posting a 4.59 ERA and 1.02 WHIP and the Buccos 'pen checking in with a 4.58 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. We've seen eight matchups between these two teams going back to the start of last September. The Cubs won just two of those games by more than a single run. Going back further, the Pirates are 21-8 in the last 29 meetings when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs (4*). |
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04-12-22 | Clippers +3 v. Wolves | Top | 104-109 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 26 m | Show |
Play-In Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up for the Clippers as they look to book a trip to Memphis for a first round playoff series against the Grizzlies. They'll need to get past the upstart T'Wolves first. Minnesota enters this showdown playing little to no defense at all, having allowed its last seven opponents to make good on 49, 48, 46, 48, 56, 43 and 44 field goals. It has incredibly held only two opponents to fewer than 102 points going all the way back to January 18th. Contrast that with the Clippers, who enter this game having held their last two opponents to 98 points or less. While the T'Wolves do boast an exceptional offense, the Clippers have been every bit as good lately. Los Angeles checks in having knocked down 41, 45, 56, 45, 33, 42 and 54 field goals over its last seven games. It shot 54-of-97 from the field in Sunday's regular season finale against Oklahoma City despite sitting Paul George, Reggie Jackson and others. What I like about the Clippers, in addition to the fact that they're well-coached (Tyronn Lue is one of the most underrated coaches in the NBA today in my opinion), is that they play some defense. They've limited three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Note that the Clips took three of four regular season meetings between these two teams, including both here in Minnesota. The lone loss came in early January when they were in a bit of a swoon and you could understand them letting down their guard having won the previous three meetings at the time - all by double-digit margins. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-12-22 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 10 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Somewhat surprisingly, the Rockies have seen just one of their first four games go 'over' the total this season. With that being said, after their first two contests reached just eight and five total runs, their last two have gotten to 13 and 10. Yesterday's series-opener here in Texas probably should have gone 'over' the total in extras were it not for a controversial call to end the game. Regardless, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair on Tuesday. The Rockies brought tonight's starting pitcher, Chad Kuhl, over from Pittsburgh in the offseason. He wasn't great with the Pirates and certainly didn't look good in two Spring Training starts with the Rockies, allowing 12 hits and eight earned runs while recording a 4:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just 5 1/3 innings. We know how explosive the Rangers offense can be as we've already seen them score 8+ runs in two of four games this season. The Rangers will hand the ball to veteran Martin Perez. He was relegated to bullpen duty after struggling as a starter with the Red Sox last season. He'll have his hands full in his first start back with the Rangers (where he started his career) as the Rockies check in hitting .307 as a team and averaging 7.5 runs per game in two previous games against left-handed starting pitching this season. With Perez an unlikely candidate to work deep into this game, that opens the door for a struggling Rangers bullpen that has posted a collective 4.74 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, having allowed four home runs in just 19 innings so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-12-22 | Marlins +1.5 v. Angels | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. With the starting pitching matchup virtually a wash and the Marlins looking to salvage one game from this quick two-game set in Anaheim, I'll back Miami with an insurance run on Tuesday. Note that the Marlins check in 45-38 after losing two of their last three games over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.1 runs on average in that spot. Better still, they're 20-11 after scoring three runs or less in three consecutive games going back to the start of last season, outscoring the opposition by 1.1 runs on average along the way. On the flip side, the Angels are just 11-20 when coming off a win by 4+ runs going back to last season, as is the case here off last night's 6-2 victory, outscored by 1.4 runs on average in that spot. While it's still very early, the Marlins bullpen has been solid, posting a 3.00 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 15 innings while the Los Angeles 'pen has recorded a 6.97 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 20 2/3 innings. Take Miami +1.5 runs (6*). |
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04-12-22 | Flyers +1.5 v. Capitals | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia +1.5 goals over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We cashed a big ticket fading the Flyers in their most recent game as they dropped a 5-3 decision at home against the Ducks on Saturday (in a game they led 2-0). Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back Philadelphia (on the puck-line) as it travels to Washington to face the division rival Capitals. The Flyers haven't quit on the season. They've actually won their last two road games, including an impressive victory over the Rangers in New York. There are certain games left on their schedule that I don't think they'll get up for, and this is one of them. Washington enters this game off three straight wins. The Caps are just 1-5 when playing at home off consecutive wins by 2+ goals this season, as is the case here, outscored by 1.5 goals on average in that situation. They've also gone 3-8 when at home after scoring 3+ goals in three consecutive games this season, which is also the situation here, outscored by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. Philadelphia meanwhile has gone 13-8 when playing on the road after losing five or six of its last seven games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.1 goals on average in that situation. It's certainly worth noting that the Caps are actually a losing team on home ice this season, having gone 18-20 with an even 3.1-3.1 scoring average. As I mentioned, I expect the Flyers to get up for this one, noting that this has been a tight series all season with Philadelphia securing a pair of one-goal victories and Washington winning the other contest by a 5-3 score (on the road). Factoring in the +1.5 puck-line, the Flyers are 4-1 in the last five meetings in the series. Take Philadelphia +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-11-22 | Brewers -150 v. Orioles | 0-2 | Loss | -150 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Baltimore at 3:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off losing opening series' against division opponents. In the case of the Brewers that was a surprise as they were favored in all three games against the Cubs in Chicago. On a positive note they did manage to salvage the series finale on Sunday and now I look for them to build some positive momentum, noting that they're an impressive 33-13 when playing on the road off a win going back to last season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.2 runs in that situation. The Orioles were not surprisingly swept in a three-game series against the Rays in St. Petersburg. They check in a woeful 11-30 in their last 41 home games after getting swept in a three-game series against a division opponent, outscored by 1.9 runs on average in that spot. Worse still, they're 13-42 when coming off three or more consecutive losses going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 2.6 runs in that situation. Take Milwaukee (5*). |
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04-11-22 | Valencia v. Rayo Vallecano UNDER 2.25 | 1-1 | Win | 50 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Rayo Vallecano and Valencia at 3 pm et on Monday. Both of these squads continue to sit in the middle-third of the La Liga table although home side Rayo Vallecano is by no means out of the woods, sitting just five points ahead of Cadiz, which sits in the first relegation spot. It has gone winless over its last 10 matches and will likely need to turn this into a rather cagey affair to come away with anything positive, noting that Valencia has been incredibly stingy, not allowing a single goal over its last three contests. In fact, both sides enter this match having seen five of their last six contests stay 'under' 2.5 total goals. While Rayo Vallecano has gone 10 matches without posting a clean sheet, this is a matchup it can handle, noting that Valencia has found only 20 goals in 15 'away' matches in La Liga play this season. You would have to go back three meetings in this series to find the last time these two teams combined to score more than two goals. We're just four matches removed from the last 0-0 draw in the series. Take the under (6*). |
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04-10-22 | Spurs v. Mavs UNDER 224.5 | Top | 120-130 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Dallas at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' (by 25+ points) in the Spurs 100-94 loss to the Warriors last night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they wrap up the regular season in Dallas on Sunday. Note that we also won with the 'under' in the Mavs most recent game, despite the fact that they put up 128 points against the Blazers. Here, we'll note that the Spurs have been playing much better defense lately, holding nine of their last 10 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. While they haven't always been able to control their opponents' tempo, they did limit the Warriors to just 81 field goal attempts last night. The Mavs don't figure to push the pace all that much here. While they did put up a ridiculous number of points last time out, they actually attempted just 79 field goals. They've hoisted up 80 or fewer FG attempts in four straight games, getting off 90 or fewer attempts in an incredible 29 straight games. Of course that doesn't always assure us of a low-scoring result as Dallas is capable of shooting the lights out. However, here on the final night of the regular season, I'm not sure we'll see it. Defensively, the Mavs are locked-in right now, holding their last two opponents to 35 or fewer made field goals on 83 or less FG attempts. The Spurs, missing both Jakob Poeltl and DeJounte Murray - two of their best scoring options - have attempted fewer than 90 field goals in six straight games - a stark contrast to what we were seeing earlier in the season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-22 | Kings v. Suns -14 | 116-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Sacramento at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. I like the way the Suns have been forcing the issue down the stretch, regardless who is in or out of the lineup, getting off 92+ field goal attempts in each of their last three games and scoring 121, 109 and 111 points in the process, winning two of those three games. Here, they should find continued success against a Kings squad that waved the white flag a long time ago and checks in having allowed 41+ made field goals in 11 consecutive games, while making good on fewer than 40 field goals themselves in six of their last 10 contests. Sacramento has had a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, hoisting up just 81, 81, 76 and 86 field goal attempts over its last four contests. Phoenix meanwhile has knocked down 50, 42 and 46 field goals over its last three games and has made good on 42, 44 and 46 field goals in its previous three meetings with Sacramento this season. Defensively, we've seen the Suns clamp down lately, yielding opponents' fewer than 90 FG attempts in seven of their last eight contests. They're just one game removed from limiting the Clippers to 33-of-75 shooting. Take Phoenix (6*). |
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04-10-22 | Raptors v. Knicks UNDER 225.5 | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and New York at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Raptors enter this game off consecutive 'over' results but I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Toronto has held four of its last five opponents to 81 or fewer field goal attempts and figures to have a good chance to keep that going against a Knicks squad that has gotten off 90 or fewer FG attempts in 15 of its last 16 games. New York has seen the 'under' cash in each of its last four contests and most recently limited the Wizards to just 69 FG attempts in a 114-92 win in Washington. Over their last three contests, the Knicks have yielded just 30, 41 and 35 made field goals. Brooklyn was the one opponent that knocked down 40+ field goals against them and that game still stayed well 'under' the total (we won with the 'under' in that game earlier this week). The Raptors are certainly rolling along offensively, but that's had a lot to do with getting off so many FG attempts. They've attempted 91+ field goals in three straight games - a pace I'm not sure we'll see them employ against a stingy Knicks defense here. The most recent meeting between these two teams did total 225 points but that game saw a whopping 48 made free throws, noting that the two teams average just 34 made free throws per game this season. Their two previous matchups both stayed well below the total we're working with here. Take the under (8*). |
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04-10-22 | Sabres v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Tampa Bay at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. Most are expecting the Lightning to go off offensively in this game as they look to snap their four-game losing streak against the lowly Sabres. There's no guarantee that will happen though as the Bolts have scored just six goals over their last three games combined and fewer than four goals in 10 of their last 15 contests. The Sabres have quietly been playing competitive hockey for weeks now. Their last loss by more than two goals came back on March 17th against Edmonton. We will note that this isn't a favorable spot for Buffalo, however, noting that it has averaged just 2.2 goals per game when seeking revenge for a loss by 2+ goals against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of only 5.8 goals (44-game sample size). Meanwhile, the Lightning have allowed just 2.2 goals per game when coming off a game in which they scored one goal or less, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 5.7 goals (35-game sample size). Take the under (8*). |
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04-10-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Arizona at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' in this matchup last night as the Padres won by a 5-2 score, staying 'under' the total by a couple of runs. We're actually dealing with a lower posted total on Sunday (at the time of writing) and I believe it will prove too low. Blake Snell made just two Spring Training starts for San Diego. In one of those outings he struggled with his command, issuing four walks in just 1 1/3 innings. In the other he gave up five hits and three earned runs over four innings of work. The D'Backs bats have been quiet in this series so far but I do think the potential is there for them to bust out on Sunday. The Padres lineup is of course loaded and we saw flashes of that last night, particularly in the latter stages of the game. Caleb Smith gets the nod for Arizona, having labored through his only two full big league seasons, posting a 4.52 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 2019 with the Marlins and a 4.83 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with the Snakes last season. He recorded a 4.0% home run rate and a 12.6% walk rate last season, both well north of MLB averages. His 35.6% fly ball rate last season was also considerably higher than the MLB average and certainly doesn't suit him well pitching at hitter-friendly Chase Field. Take the over (6*). |
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04-09-22 | Avalanche v. Oilers UNDER 6.5 | 2-1 | Win | 104 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. While the Avalanche are known for their explosive offense and coming off consecutive 'over' results to open this road trip, scoring 11 goals in the process, it may surprise you to know that they haven't posted three consecutive 'over' results since March 5th to 8th. Prior to that you would have to go back to the first half of January to find the last time they reeled off three or more consecutive 'overs'. The Oilers have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total, allowing a grand total of just three goals in those two games. I don't think we'll see either team give an inch here as they try to keep their winning streaks intact (the Avs have won five straight and the Oilers have won six in a row). Note that the lone previous meeting between these two teams totalled just five goals with Colorado skating to a 3-2 win on home ice last month. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 31-18 with the Avs coming off a one-goal victory over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.6 goals while the Oilers have posted a long-term 12-24 o/u mark when coming off five or more consecutive wins, as is the case here. Take the under (6*). |
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04-09-22 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 221.5 | 100-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and San Antonio at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results last time out. However, in the bigger picture, both have been trending to the 'under' in recent weeks. Few teams are as locked-in as the Warriors are defensively right now. They've held their last four opponents to 38, 38, 31 and 37 made field goals. In fact, they've held 11 of their last 15 opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. They've also done a nice job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, yielding just 81 and 83 field goal attempts over their last two games and fewer than 90 in seven of their last nine contests. We've actually seen the Spurs turn things around defensively as well, giving up 41 or fewer made field goals in four consecutive games. Opponents are still pushing the pace against them, but I'm not sure we'll see that from the Warriors here, noting that they'll be resting Klay Thompson and also have their regular season finale tomorrow in New Orleans so we can certainly expect some 'game management'. Offensively, you would have to go back six games to find the last time San Antonio got off 90+ FG attempts. While it has continued to shoot well, I question whether it will continue given how the Warriors have been playing, not to mention the fact the Spurs are without two of their top scoring options (among others) in DeJounte Murray and Jakob Poeltl. The last meeting between these two teams in March totalled 218 points and I would argue that game was played at a faster pace than we'll see tonight, with both teams performing similarly offensively to what we can expect here, lending itself to a lower-scoring affair. Take the under (8*). |
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04-09-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The bats have been quiet through the first two games of this series but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. Note that the 'over' is 21-7 with the D'Backs coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last season plus, resulting in an average total of 10.7 runs. Better still, the 'over' is a long-term 26-9 with Arizona playing at home off a shutout loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 11.5 runs in that spot. The Padres check in averaging 5.1 runs per game as a road favorite over the last 2+ seasons (69-game sample size). Unfortunately for the D'Backs, they've allowed an ugly 6.2 runs per game after scoring one run or less in their most recent game going back to last season (30-game sample size), which is also the case here. While Joe Musgrove and Zach Davies are serviceable, nothing about either starter really jumps off the page. Expect plenty of offense in this one. Take the over (6*). |
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04-09-22 | Ducks -102 v. Flyers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Anaheim over Philadelphia at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. The Flyers were in a favorable spot two nights ago in Columbus, seeking quick revenge in the back half of a home-and-home series against the Blue Jackets. It's a different story here, even if Philadelphia is once again in a 'revenge' spot. These two teams haven't squared off since back in the first week of January - not exactly a game that is fresh in either team's mind at the end of a long, trying season for both. The Ducks check into this game off an unsuccessful two-game homestand that saw them drop games to the Oilers and Flames. A step down in competition should help their cause here. Note that Anaheim has allowed just 2.0 goals per game, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.0 goal when coming off 16 or more losses in their last 20 games over the last two seasons (six-game sample size), as is the case here. The Flyers check in a woeful 4-18 when coming off a game against a divisional opponent this season, outscored by 1.7 goals on average in that spot. Worse still, they're winless at 0-6 when coming off a victory over a division foe, which is also the case here, outscored by an ugly 2.5-goal margin on average in that situation. Additionally, Philadelphia is 1-10 after giving up one goal or less in its previous game this season, outscored by an average margin of 2.0 goals in that spot. That strong defensive effort on Thursday was a recent anomaly for the Flyers given prior to that they had allowed 6, 5, 4, 6, 3 and 4 goals over their last six contests. For the Ducks, this might be the lone winnable game on their current road trip, which will continue with stops in Carolina, Florida and Tampa. Take Anaheim (10*). |
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04-08-22 | Astros v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. We saw a low-scoring result in the opener of this series last night but I look for a different story to unfold on Friday. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-10 with the Astros coming off a game in which they allowed one run or less going back to last season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 10.2 runs. The 'over' is also 17-7 in Houston's last 24 games as a road underdog, leading to an average total of 10.6 runs in that situation. There's nothing special about tonight's starting pitching matchup as the Astros send veteran Jake Odorizzi to the hill against Reid Detmers of the Angels. Odorizzi's strikeout rate was down while his home run rate was up last year compared to his previous two full seasons in 2018 and 2019 (he pitched only 13 2/3 innings in a Covid-shortened 2020 campaign). While Detmers has proven to be an excellent strikeout pitcher at the minor league level, he's yet to prove it in the bigs, posting an ERA north of seven in limited work (around 20 innings) last season. He did pitch well in one start against Houston last year, but I look for the Astros to fare better in their second look at the left-hander. Take the over (10*). |
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04-08-22 | Blazers v. Mavs UNDER 222 | Top | 78-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Friday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse offensive basketball than the Blazers as we head into the final weekend of the regular season. Missing so many key contributors following a pre-trade deadline fire sale and then a number of injuries, they're limping to the finish line. Note that Portland has scored 94 points or less in three straight games, struggling to just get shots off let alone knock them down, attempting only 84, 83 and a woeful 69 field goals over its last three contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in three straight and seven of the Blazers last nine games overall. On a positive note, they have held 10 of their last 13 opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. They had allowed fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games prior to last night's 127-94 loss in New Orleans (the Pelicans knocked down 44-of-93 FG attempts in that game). The Mavs have of course been lights out offensively of late. The 'over' has cashed in each of their last six games even though the pace hasn't necessarily dictated such a streak. They've attempted 80 or fewer field goals in each of their last three contests. Dallas has made good on 40 or fewer field goals in seven of its last 11 games overall. On the flip side, the Mavs held the Pistons to just 35-of-82 shooting in their most recent contest and I believe that offers some foreshadowing as to what we're likely going to see against the down-trodden Blazers on Friday. This is a game the Mavs will undoubtedly be looking to 'manage' as nearly a 20-point favorite playing their sixth game in the last 11 nights (in five different cities). Take the under (10*). |
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04-08-22 | Islanders v. Hurricanes -172 | 2-1 | Loss | -172 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Hurricanes bring some positive momentum into Friday's matchup with the Islanders after rallying for a 5-3 win over the Sabres last night. That's notable as they've allowed just 1.9 goals per game and outscored opponents by an average of 1.5 goals when playing at home off a win over the last three seasons (42-game sample size). The Isles, meanwhile, have averaged a woeful 1.8 goals per game and have been outscored by 0.9 goals on average when playing on the road seeking revenge for a loss by 3+ goals against an opponent over the last three seasons (19-game sample size), which is the situation here as well. You would have to go back six meetings here in Carolina to find the last time the Islanders defeated the Hurricanes. Take Carolina (5*). |
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04-08-22 | Mariners v. Twins OVER 8 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Minnesota at 4:10 pm et on Friday. I like the upside potential of both of these offenses heading into the new season and while we do have a tricky Opening Day starting pitching matchup to deal with, I believe the posted total will prove too low on Friday afternoon. Robbie Ray comes over to the Mariners from the Blue Jays following an incredible 2021 campaign. While Ray posted terrific numbers last season a closer look does indicate at least some reason for concern. He's certainly in line for some regression after posting the second highest strikeout rate over the course of his entire career. When opposing hitters did make contact, they hit Ray hard, as he posted a 43.3% hard-hit ball percentage - nearly 5% higher than the MLB average. That's not to mention a 29.4% fly ball percentage - exactly 5% north of the MLB average. I'm high on the Twins offense and do expect them to get to Ray on Friday. Twins starter Joe Ryan saw only limited big league action last season. With that being said, he did record an ugly 43.1% fly ball percentage and 4% home run rate in 26 2/3 innings - both well north of the MLB averages. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 31-17 with the Mariners playing on the road with a posted total between 7.0 and 8.5 runs going back to last season with that spot producing an average total of 9.6 runs. For their part, the Twins have posted a 37-21 o/u mark in all games where the total closed between 7.0 and 8.5 going back to the start of last season, good for an average total of 9.7 runs scored in that situation. Take the over (7*). |
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04-08-22 | Borussia Dortmund v. Stuttgart OVER 3 | 2-0 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund at 2:30 pm et on Friday. We've seen 15 consecutive matches between these two teams go 'over' 2.5 total goals and that would be the way I suggest playing this clash on Friday as well (even with the juice). Stuttgart has gone undefeated in its last four matches to improve its chances of avoiding relegation but it certainly isn't out of the woods yet. Concerning is the fact that it has yielded at least a goal in 11 consecutive matches and it figures to be tested here against a powerful Dortmund attack. Note that both teams have found the back of the net in each of Stuttgart's last nine matches overall and it has failed to hold Dortmund off the scoresheet in 15 straight meetings between the two squads. Dortmund will undoubtedly be looking to put Stuttgart on its back foot early in this one, noting that the former enters this match off a disappointing 4-1 loss to RB Leipzig last weekend. Dortmund has come away victorious in its last two meetings with Stuttgart but has certainly had its hands full in this series, allowing nine goals in the last four matchups in the series. Take the over (6*). |
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04-08-22 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Yankees | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston +1.5 runs over New York at 1:05 pm et on Friday. I'll take a shot with the Red Sox plus the insurance run as they get their season started a day later than expected at Yankee Stadium on Friday. Here, we'll note that the Red Sox check in 50-31 in their last 81 road games against right-handed starters, averaging 5.1 runs per game and outscoring opponents by 0.6 runs on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Yankees went just 5-8 with ace Gerrit Cole starting as a favorite priced between -150 and -200 going back to last season, as is the case here, outscored by 0.3 runs on average in that spot. Worse still, the Yanks have won just three times in Cole's last 11 daytime outings, outscored by an average margin of 3.0 runs along the way. Take Boston +1.5 runs (6*). |
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04-07-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this total sets up on Thursday night at Chase Field. The Padres lineup, even without Fernando Tatis Jr., is still absolutely loaded with run-scoring potential. Tonight they'll get the opportunity to tee off on veteran left-hander Madison Bumgarner. After a pair of shaky starts to open the Spring, MadBum settled down to toss five innings of shutout ball in his final outing. He of course was serviceable for the Snakes last season, logging 140+ innings while posting a respectable 1.18 WHIP. However, his line drive and fly ball percentages were well above the MLB average to go along with a career low 33% ground ball percentage. The Padres have favorable matchups against Bumgarner up and down their lineup in this one. Yu Darvish will counter for San Diego. His strikeout rate was down and walk rate and home run rate were both up last season. He pitched reasonably well in three Spring outings but now takes on what I consider to be a D'Backs lineup with lots of potential in a hitter-friendly park in Arizona to open the campaign. The Snakes have a number of hitters coming off impressive Spring showings and I look for some carry-over effect here. Finally, remember there are no more pitchers hitting to worry about in National League play this season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-07-22 | Magic v. Hornets OVER 227 | Top | 101-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Magic have essentially thrown in the towel defensively, allowing 42+ made field goals in three of their last four games with 12 of their last 18 opponents getting off 90+ field goal attempts. However, as we saw two nights ago in an underdog role against the Cavs, they're still capable of rising up and playing the role of spoiler, scoring 120 points on 47-of-93 shooting despite missing a number of key contributors in that contest. Here, they'll travel to Charlotte to face a Hornets squad that has acted as a swinging door defensively, allowing 43, 40, 40, 53 and 48 made field goals over their last five games despite only one of those contests being played at a particularly fast pace (their last four opponents have all gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts). Offensively, Charlotte continues to shine. It has knocked down 40+ field goals in 12 consecutive games, scoring 106 or more points in all 12 of those contests. You would have to go all the way back to February 5th to find the last time the Hornets were held to fewer than 100 points. But again, defense is an issue. Each of Charlotte's last 15 opponents have scored 100+ points. Remember, the Magic shot 45-of-87 from the field and scored 116 points in their most recent matchup here in Charlotte back in January. This is the highest posted total we've seen in this series this season but I believe it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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04-07-22 | Flyers v. Blue Jackets OVER 6.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Tuesday's 4-2 win in Philadelphia ended a stretch of seven straight games in which Columbus was held to three goals or less. Noting that the Flyers have been equally bad defensively on the road (allowing 3.6 goals per game this season) there's reason to believe the Blue Jackets can follow that performance up with another relatively high-scoring effort here. The Flyers have little reason to get up for most games as they're simply playing out the string at this point, but perhaps a quick revenge spot against the Blue Jackets gets their juices flowing here. Note that Philadelphia has actually shown some life on the road recently, scoring five goals in St. Louis, four in Nashville and four in New York (against the Rangers) in the last three weeks alone. Philadelphia checks in averaging 3.2 goals per game after losing four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Blue Jackets, meanwhile, have allowed a whopping 4.4 goals per contest when playing at home off a win over a division opponent over the same time frame, which is also the situation here. The 'over' is a perfect 7-0 with Columbus coming off a division win this season, with that spot producing an average total of 7.7 goals. We've also seen the 'over' go 15-6 with the Jackets following an 'under' result this season, leading to an average total of 7.0 goals in that spot. Here, Columbus actually checks in off consecutive 'under' results. Note that it hasn't posted three straight 'unders' since October 16th-21st - the first week of the season. Philadelphia hasn't seen the 'under' cash in consecutive games since March 18th and 20th. Take the over (8*). |
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04-07-22 | Atalanta v. RB Leipzig OVER 2.5 | 1-1 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between RB Leipzig and Atalanta at 12:45 pm et on Thursday. While Atalanta doesn't necessarily bring the best offensive form into the first leg of this Europa League clash, I believe RB Leipzig is just vulnerable enough at the back and aggressive enough moving forward to allow the Italian side to find at least one goal in this contest - and that should be enough to carry this one 'over' the relatively low posted total. Leipzig of course enters this match undefeated in its last 10 contests across all competitions. I expect the German side to find continued success against an Atalanta side that is still missing its captain and anchor at the back in Rafael Toloi due to a groin injury. Leipzig forward Christopher Nkunku has been showing off his all-world scoring touch with consistency and will prove to be a handful once again on Thursday. If there is a weakness on this Leipzig side I do feel its at the back, particularly in goal where Peter Gulacsi has appeared to be fighting the ball at times. Were it not for Atalanta's recent offensive struggles we would be working with a higher total here. However, the Italian side has found much of its success away from home soil and particularly in Europa League action and I'm confident it can do enough to help this total along on Thursday. Take the over (8*). |
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04-06-22 | Nets v. Knicks UNDER 232 | Top | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and New York at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this total sets up on Wednesday as the Nets play their second game in as many nights, making the short trip to Manhattan to face the Knights. Brooklyn rolled to a 118-105 win over lowly Houston last night. That marked the Nets third consecutive 'under' result and that's a trend I'm willing to bet on continuing here. Brooklyn has now held three straight and eight of its last 13 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. The Knicks don't figure to challenge that trend as they've made good on fewer than 40 field goals in nine of their last 14 contests. They did bust out in their last game, scoring 118 points on 45-of-93 shooting but that was against a Magic team that has quite simply folded the tent down the stretch, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. New York has tightened the screws defensively in recent weeks, holding seven of its last 10 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals, with the 'under' cashing at a 6-4 clip over that stretch. While the Nets have scored 115+ points in four straight games, they're in a bit of a tougher spot here, noting this is the second of back-to-backs and considering the Knicks have yielded opponents 85 or fewer FG attempts in five of their last six contests and 90 or less attempts in nine consecutive games. Finally, I'll point out that none of the previous three meetings in this series this season have topped 222 total points. Take the under (10*). |
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04-06-22 | Lightning v. Capitals UNDER 6 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Washington at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter this game off consecutive losses with each team allowing a whopping 11 goals over those two contests. Needless to say, both sides will be looking to tighten things up on Wednesday night. It's not as if this has been a high-scoring series this season. The two previous meetings have produced a grand total of just eight goals including a 2-1 result in favor of the Lightning in the lone previous matchup here in Washington. While the Caps average 3.1 goals per game here on home ice this season, that average drops to 2.6 when coming off consecutive 'over' results (13-game sample size), as is the case here. As for the Lightning, they've averaged just 2.1 goals per game when coming off four or more consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons (10-game sample size), which is also the situation they're in here. Additionally, the 'under' checks in 19-7 with the Bolts playing on the road after losing two of their last three contests, with an average total of just 5.0 goals in that spot. The Caps on the other hand have posted a long-term 35-58 o/u mark when coming off a loss by 4+ goals. Take the under (8*). |
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04-06-22 | Mainz v. FC Augsburg +0.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on FC Augsburg +0.5 goals over Mainz at 12:30 pm et on Wednesday. While Mainz sits four places and nine points ahead of Augsburg in the Bundesliga table, I don't believe there's all that much separating these two clubs. Much of Mainz' success has been built on its play at home - in fact, factoring in only home matches it would sit in third place in the Bundesliga. However, considering only away matches, Mainz would rank 16th, just two places above the league basement. Note that Mainz has managed only 12 goals in 13 away matches this season, while conceding 23. Contrast that with Augsburg's home tally of 20 goals for and 19 against in the same number of contests. This particular series hasn't been all that favorable for Mainz either as it has conceded at least a goal against Augsburg in 10 consecutive meetings. Augsburg enters this match having lost just once in its last four matches, that coming by a 3-2 score away against Stuttgart. Mainz, meanwhile, will be playing its second away match in the last three days after a hard-fought draw against Monchengladbach on Sunday. Take Augsburg +0.5 goals (8*). |
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04-05-22 | Islanders v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Islanders and Stars have been two of my most preferred 'under' teams in the NHL in recent seasons. While I haven't gone to that well too many times this season, I do see fit to do so as the two teams match up in Dallas on Tuesday night. The Isles have scored 16 goals over their last four games, finding the back of the net 3+ times in all four contests. Note, however, that the 'under' is 14-5 with New York playing on the road after scoring three or more goals in three or more consecutive games over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of just 4.5 goals. In 40 road games when following up a division game over the last two seasons, as is the case here off Sunday's 4-3 win over the Devils, the Isles have averaged just 2.2 goals per game with the 'under' going 27-13 along the way. The Stars average 3.0 goals per game overall this season but that average drops to 2.5 with the 'under' cashing in 20 of 31 games when coming off four or five wins in their last six games this season, as is the case here. Here, Dallas will be going up against a red hot Isles goaltending tandem with Ilya Sorokin having posted a .944 save percentage over his last four starts (note that he remains questionable after missing the Isles last four games) and Semyon Varlamov recording a terrific .941 save percentage over his last four starts. Take the under (7*). |
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04-05-22 | Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 222.5 | Top | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams just met last week and combined to score a whopping 265 points in a wild overtime affair in Portland. The two teams combined to knock down 98 field goals including 40 from beyond the arc in that contest. I'm not expecting a repeat performance from either side here. Both teams are simply playing out the string at this point, and have been for quite some time. They're also both dealing with a number of key injuries and absences. The Blazers have been as uneven as it gets offensively of late, not unexpected given the current state of their roster. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in six of their last nine games. On a positive note they have limited the opposition to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six games and 85 or less in seven of their last nine overall. Oklahoma City had been pushing the pace a bit when Shae-Gilgeous Alexander was healthy, however, he's now out for the remainder of the season and the Thunder have hoisted up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six contests. There's reason to think they'll be interested in slowing things down here after successfully doing so in a stunning 117-96 win over the Suns as a 14-point underdog last time out - a game in which they allowed just 37-of-89 shooting. Four of the Thunder's last six opponents have knocked down 41 or fewer field goals. Prior to that high-scoring one-off between these two teams last week, the previous two meetings this season totalled just 179 and 189 points. Take the under (10*). |
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04-05-22 | Rangers v. Devils OVER 6 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This series has been a high-scoring one in recent years with 11 of the last 15 meetings going 'over' the total. With the Devils having seen eight of their last 10 contests sail 'over' the total and the Rangers struggling to keep the puck out of their own net lately, I believe we're in for another relatively high-scoring affair on Tuesday night in Newark. Of course, the Rangers will not only be looking to snap a two-game losing streak on Tuesday but they'll also be out for revenge after dropping a 7-4 decision here (in a game they led 2-0) back on March 22nd. Note that while the Rangers average 3.1 goals per game this season, that scoring average jumps to 3.9 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a road favorite (nine-game sample size). The Devils should afford the Blueshirts plenty of scoring opportunities, noting that New Jersey has allowed 6, 6, 6, 4, 3, 4, 2, 8, 7 and 4 goals over its last 10 games. Without question we've seen the Devils sacrifice defense for offense down the stretch, scoring three goals or more in eight of their last 10 contests and six or more twice over their last seven games. Going all the way back to February 28th, the Devils have fired 30+ shots on goal in nine straight games here at home. The Rangers have been a solid defensive team this season but that hasn't been the case lately. They check in having given up 25 goals over their last seven contests. Goaltender Igor Shesterkin has posted a disappointing .899 save percentage over his last four starts and has allowed 17 goals over his last five games between the pipes. Backup Alex Georgiev has of course struggled for much of the season, particularly on the road where he owns a .887 save percentage. Devils games have seen an average total of 6.8 goals this season but that average jumps to 7.4 when they come off eight or more losses in their last 10 games, as is the case here, with the 'over' cashing at an 11-4 clip in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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04-05-22 | Atletico Madrid +1.5 v. Manchester City | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atletico Madrid +1.5 goals over Manchester City at 3 pm et on Tuesday. Most are expecting Manchester City to cruise in the home leg of its clash with Atletico Madrid on Tuesday. I'm not so easily convinced. Atletico Madrid enters this match playing its best football, having won six consecutive matches (undefeated in its last eight). In fact, it has scored first in each of its last eight contests. It's not as if goals have been all that plentiful in Manchester City matches lately with five of its last seven contests staying 'under' 2.5 total goals. That sort of low-scoring affair would of course be favorable to us with an insurance goal in our back pocket. While Atletico Madrid will certainly have its hands full with a potent Man City attack, it has held up well in 'away' matches in Champions League play, allowing just four goals in as many contests. Take Atletico Madrid +1.5 goals (8*). |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -4 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas minus the points over North Carolina at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We've been on the sidelines for Kansas' tournament run but I'll step in confidently and back the Jayhawks here as they clash with North Carolina in the National Title Game on Monday night. North Carolina has afforded its opponents far too many scoring opportunities for my liking. Even in its thrilling win over Duke on Saturday, it yielded a whopping 72 field goal attempts. Over their last five contests, the Tar Heels have allowed 73, 81 (aided by overtime against Baylor), 62, 60 and 72 FG attempts. While they've done a nice job defensively as a whole, they've still allowed 25, 26, 28, 28, 18 and 30 made field goals over their last six contests. The outlier over that stretch was a game against an overmatched St. Peter's squad in the Elite Eight. In stark contrast, Kansas has allowed its last five opponents to knock down just 19, 21, 23, 19 and 22 field goals. Again, some of that has to do with the opposition simply not making their shots. However, Kansas has been doing it all season, allowing just 25 made field goals including only six from beyond the arc per game on average away from home. What I really like about the Jayhawks is the way they've tightened the screws defensively lately, giving up fewer than 60 FG attempt in four of their last five and six of their last eight contests overall. On the flip side, the Jayhawks have made good on 33, 30, 22, 34, 27, 22. 29 and 29 field goals over their last eight games - you get the picture, they've been ultra-consistent. The two outliers (22 made field goals) came in relatively low-scoring affairs against Texas Tech and Providence, two excellent teams in their own right. They still won both of those games by five or more points. North Carolina has actually knocked down 27 or fewer field goals in five of its last seven games. It has had plenty of success getting to the free throw line but faces a Kansas squad that affords its opponents just 17 free throw attempts per game this season. While we can't project the Jayhawks to go off from beyond the arc the way they did against Villanova in the Final Four, we also can't expect North Carolina to get off 64 FG attempts or get to the line 24 times the way it did against Duke on Saturday. Take Kansas (10*). |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas UNDER 152.5 | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Kansas at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We won with our big play on the 'over' in North Carolina's thrilling 81-77 win over Duke in the Final Four on Saturday. Kansas also saw its rout of Villanova sail 'over' the total. I believe both results are setting us up with an inflated total on Monday, keeping in mind both teams entered the Final Four on the heels of consecutive 'under' results. We can't anticipate Kansas to go off from three-point range again on Monday the way it did on Saturday. The Jayhawks made good on 13-of-24 attempts from beyond the arc in that contest but average just 6-of-18 from three-point range away from home this season. We also can't count on North Carolina to get to the free throw line 24 times the way it did against Duke (Kansas yields opponents just 17 free throw attempts per game this season). The Jayhawks have done a tremendous job defensively, allowing 23 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine games overall with the 'under' cashing in five of those nine games. It's worth noting that this is the highest posted total we've seen in any of Kansas' last 10 contests, by a considerable margin (the next highest was 145.5). While both teams are certainly capable of 'filling it up' the fact is neither has topped 29 made field goals in any of their last four games, respectively. In fact, the Tar Heels have knocked down 27 or fewer field goals in regulation time in four consecutive games. Kansas has made good on 29 field goals in consecutive games after being held to just 27 and 22 against Creighton and Providence. Take the under (8*). |
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04-04-22 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Lightning are coming off a rare home loss on Saturday night, falling by a 5-4 score in a shootout against Montreal. Tampa Bay has now seen the 'over' cash in three straight games and has scored 4+ goals in four consecutive games - its longest such streak of the season. Contrary to popular belief, that's not really the style the Lightning like to employ. While they can score with the best of them, they prefer to play a 'crash and bang' style of hockey to wear down the opposition. It's worth noting that they gave regular starting goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy the night off on Saturday. He's been rounding back into form lately, with the Bolts allowing just 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 1, 3 and 2 goals in his last eight starts (the 'under' went 6-2 in those eight contests). Here, we'll note that Tampa has seen the 'under' cash at a 7-1 clip when coming off three or more consecutive 'over' results this season, with that situation leading to an average total of just 4.9 goals. The Leafs are red hot offensively right now, scoring 5+ goals in each of their last four contests. They average an impressive 3.9 goals per game on the road this season but that number drops to 2.7 when coming off four consecutive games in which they scored 4+ goals. On the flip side, Tampa has allowed just 2.0 goals per game when playing at home off a loss over the last two seasons (22-game sample size). The Bolts took the most recent meeting between these two teams by a 5-3 score in Toronto and that's notable as the 'under' has gone 17-8 with the Leafs on the road seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 4+ goals over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of only 5.5 goals. Toronto welcomed back goaltender Jack Campbell on Saturday in Philadelphia and after a shaky first period in which he allowed two goals on 11 shots, he stopped 20 of 21 shots on goal the rest of the way in a 6-3 Leafs victory. While the last meeting between these two teams was high-scoring as I mentioned, the 'under' has actually cashed in 24 of the last 38 matchups in the series. Interestingly, the two previous matchups this season saw closing totals of just 5.5 so we're dealing with a considerably higher total here. With the Leafs and Bolts currently tied for second place in the Atlantic Division, this game takes on added importance and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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04-03-22 | Wolves v. Rockets +12.5 | 139-132 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. This is simply too many points for the T'Wolves to be laying given how poorly they've been playing defensively. Minnesota checks in having yielded 49, 48 and 46 made field goals over its last three games but is coming off a 106-100 win as a three-point underdog in Denver two nights ago. It's not as if the Wolves have been unstoppable offensively lately either, knocking down 43 or fewer field goals in five of their last six contests. The Rockets, meanwhile, have gone winless through the first three games on their current four-game homestand. With that being said, those three previous losses have come by just 3, 3 and 5 points. Despite playing at a fast pace, six of Houston's last seven opponents have made good on 44 or fewer field goals. We've seen the Rockets start pushing the pace again over their last couple of games, getting off 94 and 97 field goal attempts against the Kings. They should be afforded a similar number of opportunities here with Minnesota having yielded opponents 90+ FG attempts in five of its last nine contests. The T'Wolves 'only' won by 18 points in the most recent meeting between these two teams despite shooting a ridiculous 55-of-108 from the field. Take Houston (8*). |
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04-03-22 | Islanders v. Devils +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Jersey +1.5 goals over New York at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Islanders are coming off a stunning 3-0 win over the Rangers at MSG on Friday - their third consecutive win. Here, I look for them to stumble, however, as they head to Newark to face the Devils on Sunday afternoon. New Jersey is coming off a wild 7-6 loss at home against Florida yesterday. The Devils have been getting lit up defensively, allowing 15 goals over their last two contests, but there's reason to believe they can hold the Isles in check here. Note that New York has averaged 2.1 goals per game and has been outscored by 0.2 goals on average when playing on the road after scoring 3+ goals in three straight games over the last two seasons (18-game sample size), as is the case here. The Isles are also a woeful 4-13 when playing on the road after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by a whopping average margin of 1.4 goals in that situation. While the Isles have taken two of three previous meetings between these two teams this season, the Devils have actually outscored them 8-7 overall. Take New Jersey +1.5 goals (6*). |
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04-02-22 | Stars v. Sharks +1.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Dallas at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. We've successfully faded the Stars on the puck-line in each of their first two games on their current four-game road trip and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Saturday. Keep in mind, the Stars average just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 0.5 goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time they posted a win by 2+ goals and they've accomplished that feat just once in their last 11 games overall. Note that Dallas checks in a woeful 1-9 when playing on the road after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, allowing 4.3 goals per game while being outscored by 2.4 goals on average in that situation. The Sharks, meanwhile, are 16-10 this season when coming off consecutive games in which they allowed 3+ goals this season, which is also the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.5 goals on average in that spot. Better still, San Jose is 10-3 when coming off consecutive losses by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (6*). |
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04-02-22 | North Carolina v. Duke OVER 151 | Top | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and Duke at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. This will be the third meeting between these rivals this season with the previous two both sailing 'over' the total we're working with on Saturday. Given the way both teams have played leading up to and in this tournament, barring one of both sides going ice cold shooting the ball, I see no other way to go but the 'over' again here in their much-anticipated Final Four showdown. We missed with the 'over' in the Tar Heels most recent game - a 69-49 rout of an overmatched St. Peter's squad last Sunday. The Peacocks actually got off 60 field goal attempts in that game but knocked down only 18 of them in the blowout loss. North Carolina has now yielded its opponents 73, 81 (OT game against Baylor), 62 and 60 FG attempts in four games in this tournament. Prior to its Elite Eight matchup, UNC had allowed 25+ made field goals in eight of its last nine games. On the flip side, the Tar Heels have made good on 25+ field goals in eight of their last nine games overall. While not all of their recent opponents have shot well, the Blue Devils have essentially been a 'swinging door' defensively, allowing 62+ field goal attempts in eight consecutive games. Seven of their last eight opponents have knocked down 26+ field goals with the 'over' going 6-1-1 over that stretch. Of course, from an offensive standpoint, few are doing it better than the Blue Devils right now as they've made good on 30, 32, 28 and 29 field goals in their first four games in this tournament. Duke has scored 78+ points in nine of its last 10 games overall. Its lone 'under' result over that stretch came in a game where its opening round opponents in this tourney, Cal-State Fullerton, shot a woeful 24-of-64 from the field. With UNC allowing 65 field goal attempts per game away from home this season, not to mention eight made threes per contest, I believe the door is open for Duke to set the pace on Saturday. Meanwhile, we haven't seen UNC's best offensively over the last couple of games but we know its capable of keeping up here, noting that it scored a whopping 95 points in a stunning victory in Coach K's final game at Cameron Indoor back on March 5th. Take the over (10*). |
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04-02-22 | Hornets +5.5 v. 76ers | 114-144 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Philadelphia at 12:40 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Hornets in this early matchup on Saturday. Charlotte has quietly won eight of its last 10 games overall. You would have to go all the way back to February 5th to find the last time the Hornets were held to fewer than 100 points. They've made good on 40+ field goals in 10 straight games. Simply put, they're rolling right now. Meanwhile, the 76ers continue to scuffle along. They dropped an ugly 102-94 decision in Detroit two nights ago. In stark contrast to the Hornets, the Sixers have been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in seven of their last 12 contests. Meanwhile, their defense has sagged, yielding 45, 44 and 41 made field goals in their last three games. While ordinarily I would assume that Philadelphia could frustrate Charlotte by slowing the pace here, I'm not sure that will be the case noting that the Hornets have actually limited four of their last five opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts. Take Charlotte (8*). |
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