For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL |Â CFB |Â MLB |Â NBA |Â CBB |Â NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-20-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Cardinals enter Monday's series-opener in Milwaukee on the heels of five consecutive 'over' results. I expect a different story to unfold here, however, as we have a terrific starting pitching matchup featuring Miles Mikolas - who fell just short of delivering a no-hitter in his last start - and Corbin Burnes, fresh off a masterful performance against a tough Mets lineup last time out. Mikolas owns a 3.36 FIP and 0.97 WHIP this season and will be starting on a full five days' rest on Monday. Opponents are averaging just 2.8 runs per nine innings against him this season. While the Cards have lost three of their last four games, their bullpen hasn't been to blame. They entered yesterday's action sporting a 2.45 ERA and 0.77 WHIP over their last seven games. Corbin Burnes hasn't dominated the way he did last season but has still posted a terrific 3.08 FIP and 0.95 WHIP this season. I mentioned his last start against the Mets, it's worth noting that he didn't issue a walk for the first time in five starts in that outing. Burnes has been at his best against division opponents this season, recording a 2.42 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in four starts against the N.L. Central. Incredibly, the Brewers bullpen hasn't allowed a single earned run over its last eight games. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
06-20-22 | Giants v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Monday. This is the best starting pitching matchup on Monday's board as the Giants send Logan Webb to the hill against Max Fried of the Braves. Webb has posted a 3.08 FIP and 1.18 WHIP this season. Better still, he has recorded a 1.08 WHIP on the road this season. He's also coming off his best start of the campaign as he tossed seven shutout innings against the Royals last week. Fried has been even better, posting a 2.80 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season. He wasn't at his best in his most recent start but now he gets to pitch on a full five days' rest again and I expect him to hold the Giants bats in check. Note that opponents are averaging just a shade over 3.0 runs per nine innings against Fried this season. Beyond Webb and Fried, both bullpens have excelled lately, posting sub-2.00 ERA's over the last week. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
06-20-22 | Tigers v. Red Sox -173 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. While the Tigers are coming off consecutive wins, those came at the expense of one of the league's most disappointing teams in the Texas Rangers. Detroit still checks in just 2-6 over its last eight games and 9-18 on the road this season, where it averages just 2.3 runs per game. Boston has been arguably the best team in baseball since mid-May and is fresh off another series victory over the Cardinals. While the Red Sox wouldn't appear to have any sort of substantial edge in terms of tonight's starting pitching matchup, I'm comfortable supporting rookie Josh Winckowski in his third start of the season. I like the fact that his two previous starts have also come at Fenway Park. He certainly looked comfortable pitching here last time out as he tossed five shutout innings against the A's and will face a similar challenge against the light-hitting Tigers here. Alex Faedo counters for Detroit. He owns a 4.40 FIP and 1.40 WHIP this season. This will be arguably his toughest test to date and he'll be starting on just four days' rest after getting lit up to the tune of seven earned runs on nine hits over three innings against the White Sox last time out. While the Tigers bullpen was one of their only redeeming qualities earlier in the season, it has struggled lately, posting a 6.90 ERA and 1.90 WHIP over the last seven games entering yesterday's contest. Take Boston (8*). |
|||||||
06-20-22 | Marlins v. Mets -151 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Miami at 1:10 pm et on Monday. The Mets ran into the Marlins best starting pitcher yesterday in Sandy Alcantara and fell by a 6-2 score. I look for them to answer back in Monday's series-finale. While New York doesn't have a considerable starting pitcher advantage in this matchup, I do rate David Peterson slightly better than Trevor Rogers this season. Peterson checks in with a 1.33 WHIP compared to Rogers' 1.64. It's also worth noting that Peterson has allowed 2.7 fewer hits and 0.8 fewer home runs per nine innings this season. Neither starter has proven capable of working deep into ball games which could lead to a battle of the bullpens here. In that department, I do give New York the advantage as its 'pen has posted a 3.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP here at home this season. By contrast, the Marlins relief corps has posted a 5.09 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with eight blown saves compared to nine converted on the road this season. Take New York (8*). |
|||||||
06-18-22 | Lightning +1.5 v. Avalanche | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -200 | 54 h 44 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 goals over Colorado at 8 pm et on Saturday. As I've noted time and time again in these playoffs, long winning streaks just aren't commonplace in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Here, we find the Avalanche coming off six consecutive victories, a streak that I believe is getting a little long in the tooth. The Lightning couldn't have got off to much worse of a start in Game 1 yet still ended up pushing the Avs to overtime before falling by a 4-3 score. Here, we'll note that Tampa Bay checks in 26-7 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average. Better still, the Bolts are 30-9 when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 4+ goals over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Additionally, Tampa Bay is 33-15 when trailing a playoff series, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals. While Colorado has now taken consecutive meetings against the Lightning on home ice, Tampa Bay is no stranger to winning in Denver, having reeled off five consecutive road wins in this series previously. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
06-18-22 | Charlotte FC v. Columbus OVER 2.5 | 1-1 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Columbus and Charlotte at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Charlotte has managed to find the back of the net in four straight and seven of its last eight matches across all competitions. Here, it finds itself in an underdog role away against Columbus, rightfully so given it has had a miserable time preventing goals away from home, giving up 13 in just seven road contests this season. Columbus hasn't exactly been explosive offensively, managing nine goals in six home matches, however it should have little trouble breaking through here, noting that you would have to go back five matches to find the last time Charlotte posted a clean sheet. With the Crew sitting in the bottom half of the MLS Eastern Conference standings it can make a serious move here as it sits just three points back of Charlotte - which finds itself in seventh place in the conference, three spots north of Columbus. Expect goals on Saturday night. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
06-18-22 | Calgary v. Hamilton UNDER 45.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 19 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Hamilton at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in much different results last week as the Stampeders prevailed in a high-scoring affair against the Alouettes while the Tiger-Cats ended up losing by 17 points in what was a very low-scoring game until the final few minutes when the Riders put two touchdowns on the board. Here, I'm not expecting much in the way of offensive fireworks. The Stampeders are still easing QB Bo Levi Mitchell back from injury and now he's dealing with a nagging foot ailment but will play on Saturday. Last week against what I would consider a middle-of-the-pack Als defense, Mitchell completed just 21-of-34 passes for 199 yards a touchdown and an interception. I'm not convinced the Stamps will be eager to throw him to the wolves against a terrific Ti-Cats defense on the road on Saturday. Hamilton will need to hang its hat on its defense - at least until it gets things figured out on offense. Dane Evans is supposed to take over the reins from Jeremiah Masoli at quarterback this season but he didn't look great last week, with Matt Shiltz entering the game for extended action. The Ti-Cats ground attack boasts some capable backs but no true workhorse or standout capable of churning out much-needed yardage in the three-down Canadian game. While I wasn't particularly high on the Stamps defense entering the season, I did like the way they shut down the Als in the second half last week, allowing just a single field goal. As I alluded to earlier, Hamilton didn't give up a touchdown until the final minutes of last week's 30-13 loss in Saskatchewan and we know how tough the Ti-Cats 'D' can be at Tim Hortons Field. As a final note, the Ti-Cats will be missing two key cogs on their offensive line due to injury this week, further hampering their offense. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
06-18-22 | Phillies -208 v. Nationals | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Washington at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. The Phillies will hand the ball to Aaron Nola on Saturday afternoon as the Nationals counter with Josiah Gray. Nola has quietly put together a fine campaign so far, recording a 3.09 FIP and 0.89 WHIP in 13 starts. Gray has been a train wreck for the Nats and is fortunate to get another turn in the rotation. He has posted a 5.43 FIP and 1.32 WHIP, allowing a whopping 4.2 walks per nine innings while giving up just shy of 4.5 runs per nine innings. Philadelphia entered yesterday's double-header averaging 5.5 runs per game on the road this season while the Nats averaged just 3.6 runs per contest at home. Take Philadelphia (6*). |
|||||||
06-18-22 | Rays -159 v. Orioles | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Baltimore at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Orioles have been a 'tough out' all season and proved to be so again last night as they outlasted the Rays by a 1-0 score. I look for the Rays to answer back on Saturday against perhaps the Orioles weakest starting pitcher in Kyle Bradish. Bradish owns a 5.61 FIP and 1.67 WHIP this season. His counterpart on Saturday will be Jeffrey Springs, who has recorded a 3.16 FIP and 0.91 WHIP. Springs has given up 5.4 fewer hits and 1.4 fewer walks per nine innings compared to Bradish this season. Note that Bradish is allowing a whopping 7.1 runs per nine innings. Tampa Bay has now lost four games in a row but if they're to break that skid in Baltimore, this looks like the best matchup to do so. Note that despite the 1-0 loss last night, the Rays are still 28-8 in their last 36 matchups with Baltimore. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
|||||||
06-18-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. The Yankees bats came alive against back-of-the-rotation starter Ross Stripling and the Blue Jays bullpen last night. I do look for Alek Manoah to do a better job of keeping them in check on Saturday. Note that Manoah has posted a 2.95 FIP and 0.91 WHIP this season. His counterpart on Saturday has been almost as good in Jameson Taillon of the Yankees. He has recorded a 3.15 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. Better still, Taillon owns a 1.01 WHIP in 27 2/3 innings of work on the road this season while Manoah has posted a ridiculous 0.74 WHIP in 40 1/3 innings pitched at home. All due respect to both offenses in this matchup but I think we're in for a pitcher's duel. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-17-22 | Twins -128 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -128 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Twins continue to quietly rack up victories, now nine games over .500 on the season. They'll hand the ball to left-hander Devin Smeltzer on Friday as he looks to continue what has been a terrific 2022 campaign to this point. While Smeltzer isn't flashy by any means - he isn't going to set opposing lineups on fire with strikeouts - he has been consistently delivering, posting a 2.81 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his last three starts. His 4.91 FIP leaves a lot to be desired but his 0.97 WHIP tells a different story. The fact is, opponents have averaged just 2.38 runs per nine innings off of the southpaw this season. D'Backs veteran starter Madison Bumgarner got off to a nice start this season but has been unsteady lately, recording a 3.94 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over his last three trips to the hill. His FIP has ballooned north of 5.0 and opponents are averaging 4.2 runs per nine innings against him. He checks in allowing 2.1 more hits and 0.7 more walks per nine innings compared to Smeltzer. Both bullpens have held up well lately but I give the Twins offense a considerable edge in this matchup, noting that they average 4.5 runs per game on the road this season while the Snakes check in averaging just 3.7 runs per contest at home. Take Minnesota (10*). |
|||||||
06-17-22 | White Sox v. Astros -166 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The White Sox absolutely laid waste to a reeling Tigers club in a three-game series earlier this week. I expect them to find the going a little tougher in Houston, however. Lucas Giolito has had a tough time regaining past form here in 2022, posting a 4.44 FIP and 1.44 WHIP, giving up well north of 4.0 runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, Astros starter Framber Valdez has been the picture of consistency, checking in with a 2.14 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over his last three outings. For the season, Valdez has recorded a 3.36 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. He's giving up 2.5 fewer hits and 1.5 fewer walks per nine innings compared to Giolito. We'll give the Astros bullpen the edge here as well as they've posted a collective 2.66 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 17 saves converted and only four blown this season. Take Houston (8*). |
|||||||
06-17-22 | Cardinals v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Adam Wainwright has turned back the clock for the Cardinals this season, entering Friday's start on the heels of three straight outings lasting exactly seven innings, allowing just five earned runs over that stretch. He's posted a 3.51 FIP this season with opponents averaging just under 3.0 runs per nine innings against him. It's been a similar story for Red Sox starter Michael Wacha. The former Cardinal has recorded a 3.96 FIP and a 1.00 WHIP, giving up only 2.7 runs per nine innings. Wacha did labor through his most recent start but that came on the road. Here at Fenway Park he has posted a 0.86 ERA to go along with an identical 0.86 WHIP in four starts spanning 21 innings of work this season. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-17-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 | 12-3 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Yankees are coming off a string of low-scoring games this week and I expect to chalk up another on Friday as they head north to face the Blue Jays. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for New York. He has been quietly effective this season, posting a 3.46 FIP and 0.98 WHIP. Opponents are scoring just 2.7 runs per nine innings against the left-hander. In eight career starts against the Jays he has posted a 3.51 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Ross Stripling gets another turn in the rotation for the Blue Jays. To say that he's pitched well this season would be an understatement. He's exceeded expectations in what was supposed to only be a spot starting role, recording a 2.98 FIP and 1.00 WHIP. Like Montgomery he's done a tremendous job of keeping runs off the board, allowing only 3.35 runs per nine innings. With both bullpens capable of pitching effectively in the late innings, we'll confidently back the 'under' at a very generous number here. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-17-22 | Storm v. Sun UNDER 161.5 | 71-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Connecticut at 7 pm et on Friday. Seattle has seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total as its three opponents on its current road trip have quite simply shot the lights out. Note that the Storm do check in having held seven consecutive opponents to fewer than 70 field goal attempts. I don't think they'll have any interest in getting involved in a track meet as they play their fourth road game in the last eight nights, against a Connecticut squad that just put up 105 points in a double-digit win over Atlanta two nights ago. The Sun usually rank among the top defensive teams in the WNBA but like the Storm, they've run into some hot-shooting opponents of late. Note that Connecticut is still allowing just 28-of-66 shooting on average at home this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 18-8 with the Storm coming off three straight games totalling at least 155 points over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Sun have seen the 'under' cash at a 13-5 clip when coming off four or five ATS wins over their last six games over the last two seasons, which is also the situation tonight. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-17-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over Washington at 1:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the Phillies last night as they trounced the Nationals in the opener of this series. I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with them on Friday afternoon in Game 1 of the day-night double-header. Ranger Suarez will take the ball for Philadelphia. His numbers certainly don't jump off the page this season, but they're far superior to those of Nationals starter Joan Adon, who inexplicably remains in the rotation despite a 6.95 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Suarez checks in with a sub-4.00 career FIP with that number sitting at 4.17 this season. Again, his numbers don't really pop but Adon has allowed north of 10 hits and just shy of six walks, not to mention 7.3 runs per nine innings. Of course, starting pitching is only part of the equation and right now the Phillies are locked in at the plate, entering last night's game hitting .285 as a team over the last week. They also entered last night's action averaging 5.4 runs per game on the road while the Nats average just 3.7 runs per contest at home. While the Phillies bullpen is always a concern, I expect them to do enough offensively that it won't matter on Friday afternoon. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -157 | 103-90 | Loss | -157 | 62 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston moneyline over Golden State at 9 pm et on Thursday. I'm not going to bother messing with the points in this one as we're being offered a reasonable enough price to back the Celtics on the moneyline. This series has appeared bound to go the distance since the opening tipoff and I've seen nothing to change my opinion on that, even with the Warriors winning the last two games in convincing fashion. Boston is back home for Game 6 on Thursday, where it has gone a perfect 3-0 following a loss in these playoffs and I'm confident we'll see it hold serve with a big bounce-back effort here. Keep in mind, the Celtics couldn't have performed any worse offensively in Game 5 (31-of-75 shooting) yet still lost by 'only' 10 points. Golden State is just 3-5 when playing on the road off a win in these playoffs and I look for it to fall short again here. Take Boston moneyline (8*). |
|||||||
06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 210.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -108 | 61 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Thursday. I stayed away from the total in Game 5 of this series as I had the suspicion we may seen the 'zig-zag' totals pattern deviate for a game. Here, I won't hesitate to jump back in with a play on the 'over' following consecutive relatively low-scoring affairs. Boston couldn't have performed any worse offensively in Game 5. It had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone making them, ultimately knocking down just 31-of-75 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Golden State has seemingly figured out that speeding things up offensively can work to its advantage against a Celtics defense that much prefers to grind it out. The Warriors have now gotten off 88+ field goal attempts in three of the first five games in this series. They've also made good on 40+ field goals in consecutive games. While I do expect them to find continued success here in Game 6, I also feel the Celtics are favored for a reason and should enjoy a strong bounce-back performance, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. I really feel that the Celtics offensive woes over the last six quarters in particular have had more to do with their own poor shooting rather than anything the Warriors have been doing defensively. Noting that Boston has averaged 40-of-86 shooting here at home this season, I'm confident it can do its part to help this total along. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
06-16-22 | Montreal v. Toronto UNDER 50 | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Argos will make their season debut as they host the East Division rival Alouettes on Thursday. We won with Montreal plus the points in its three-point loss in Calgary last week. In that game, the Als defense actually held up better than expected as far as I'm concerned. While it did get off to a tough start, allowing two touchdowns in the game's first 20 minutes and change, it then held the Stampeders out of the end zone until two minutes into the fourth quarter. I like the fact that it catches a new-look Toronto offense that has yet to see regular season game action on Thursday. The Argos added RB Andrew Harris in the offseason and I'm confident he'll be the focal point of their offense early in the campaign. I'm just not completely sold on QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson being a first-rate starting QB in the CFL. On the flip side, the jury is still out as to whether Als QB Vernon Adams Jr. belongs in that category as well. Here, Montreal will be without standout RB William Stanback. He's the type of do-it-all CFL back that leaves a hole in the offense when he's sidelined. I do think the Als will be hesitant to turn Adams loose coming off a loss here in Week 2 against what should be one of the better defenses in the league in Toronto. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-16-22 | Brewers v. Mets -128 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Brewers smashed the Mets by a 10-2 score last night, taking full advantage of a pitching mismatch that featured Corbin Burnes against David Peterson. Here, the starting pitching matchup is virtually a wash, but I prefer backing the Mets bats, at home no less, where they've generally been dominant this season and have certainly thrived in a bounce-back role. I like the improvement we've seen from Mets starter Tylor Megill following his rookie campaign. He's posted a 3.56 FIP and 1.18 WHIP, going 4-2 in eight outings. Aaron Ashby has posted similar numbers in his sophomore campaign for the Brewers but his 4.1 walks per nine innings, not to mention his reliance on strikeouts (11 per nine innings) concern me. Take New York (8*). |
|||||||
06-16-22 | Rangers -134 v. Tigers | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers are coming off a tough series against the Astros, including a beatdown on Wednesday. I look for them to bounce back with a rejuvenated Martin Perez taking the hill in Detroit on Thursday. Perez has done more than just turn back the clock this season as he's never looked as good as he has in 2022. He checks into Thursday's start sporting a 2.72 FIP and 1.10 WHIP. He's allowed just 0.2 home runs per nine innings and should relish the opportunity to face the light-hitting Tigers here. Beau Brieske will counter for Detroit. He won his first career game against Toronto last time out but I suspect he'll have difficult stringing together another quality outing here. Note that Brieske has recorded a poor 6.06 FIP in nine starts spanning 47 2/3 innings of work this season and faces a Rangers lineup that has performed better on the road than at home this season. Take Texas (10*). |
|||||||
06-16-22 | Phillies -200 v. Nationals | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Phillies just keep finding ways to win while the Nationals are about as down-trodden as it gets following a series sweep at the hands of another N.L. East opponent, the red hot Atlanta Braves. I like the starting pitching edge the Phils hold in the opener of this series on Thursday as they send Zack Wheeler to the hill against Pat Corbin. Wheeler finished second in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and he's picked up right where he left off this season, recording a 2.13 FIP and 1.09 WHIP. Contrast that with Corbin, who owns a 4.56 FIP and 1.73 WHIP, allowing north of 12 hits while walking 3.5 batters per nine innings. While backing the Phillies bullpen is rarely fun, I'm not sure their relief corps will be asked to do too much on Thursday. Take Philadelphia (6*). |
|||||||
06-16-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 10-2 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto -1.5 runs over Baltimore at 3:05 pm et on Thursday. The Blue Jays have taken two of the first three games in this series after an extra innings victory last night. While Kevin Gausman dealt with possible pitch-tipping against the Twins a couple of starts back, he settled right back in against the Tigers last time out. He has posted a ridiculous 1.76 FIP this season, indicating his 5-5 win-loss record doesn't tell the whole story. While Gausman has yielded north of nine hits per nine innings, he's made up for it by limiting opponents to 1.3 walks and striking out just shy of 10 batters per nine frames. Tyler Wells has held his own for the Orioles but his numbers pale in comparison to those of the veteran Gausman. While the O's have managed to take one game already in this series and generally prove to be a 'tough out', I expect the Blue Jays to build off last night's walk-off win with a convincing series-clinching victory on Thursday. Take Toronto -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
06-16-22 | Padres -192 v. Cubs | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Thursday. The Padres have been beating up on the Cubs all week long at Wrigley Field and I expect nothing different on Thursday. San Diego once again has a considerable starting pitching edge here with early N.L. Cy Young candidate Joe Musgrove taking the hill. He's enjoying a career year, having posted a 2.66 FIP and 0.93 WHIP. It quite simply doesn't get much better. While Cubs starter Matt Swarmer has made only three starts spanning 17 innings of work, his 8.79 FIP is alarming. He's been getting crushed by the long ball, allowing just shy of five home runs per nine innings. While those numbers are sure to come down as he gets more work in, I'm still not convinced he can outduel Musgrove or quiet the Padres hot bats on Thursday. Take San Diego (6*). |
|||||||
06-15-22 | Orlando City SC v. New England OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -140 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
MLS Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Orlando City SC at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. You would have to go back eight meetings in this series to find the last time a match totalled 'under' 2.5 goals. Orlando City enters Wednesday's contest having seen seven of its last nine matches go 'over' 2.5 total goals while New England has had five of its last seven contests go 'over' that total. Not since April 30th, in a match where its opponent Inter Miami CF was handed two red cards, has New England posted a clean sheet - that's eight matches back. Orlando recorded a clean sheet against Toronto FC four matches back but that's been its only shutout posted in its last nine contests. With this match being played in Foxborough, with the Revolution looking to leapfrog Orlando - which currently holds down fifth place in the Eastern Conference - and jump into the playoff picture by grabbing all three points, I expect an aggressive gameplan from the home side here. That does leave it somewhat vulnerable, however, with Orlando having found the back of the net in seven consecutive trips to the pitch. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
06-15-22 | Braves -170 v. Nationals | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Another tough matchup for the Nationals on Wednesday as they send Erick Fedde to the mound against Braves impressive rookie starter Spencer Strider. Fedder is having another difficult campaign having posted a 4.56 FIP and 1.54 WHIP. That FIP actually represents an improvement over his career mark of 5.09. Fedde is allowing north of nine hits and four walks per nine innings which obviously spells trouble against a loaded Braves lineup, even with Ozzie Albies now on the shelf. Spencer Strider will be making his fourth start of the season and while we're talking about a relatively small sample size, his numbers are still impressive. He has recorded a 2.00 FIP to go along with a 1.12 WHIP. While his 4.5 walks per nine innings are a concern, they've been negated by his ability to strike out opposing hitters (13.4 per nine innings) and give up few hits (5.6 per nine innings). Take Atlanta (8*). |
|||||||
06-15-22 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 7.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. You won't find a better pitching matchup on Wednesday's MLB board as the Rays hand the ball to Shane McClanahan against Nestor Cortes of the Yankees. Cortes has really come into his own this season, posting a 2.85 FIP and 0.92 WHIP. His 5-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio is impressive but pales in comparison to that of McClanahan, who has recorded a 7.5-1 K:BB ratio. McClanahan also owns a 2.45 FIP and 0.86 WHIP. The deeper you go with both starters, the more impressive the numbers get. While we are dealing with a relatively low posted total, I believe it's warranted. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-15-22 | Reds v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 4-7 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. Terrific pitching matchup here as a rejuvenated Luis Castillo takes the hill for the Reds against Zac Gallen for the D'Backs. Gallen has struggled through his last few outings but what better spot to bounce back than at home against the light-hitting Reds. Cincinnati entered Tuesday's game averaging 3.0 runs per game on .211 hitting on the road this season. Gallen, despite his recent issues, still checks in with a 3.68 FIP and 1.07 WHIP this season. Castillo owns a 3.32 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. Both starters allow lees than 1.0 home run per nine innings. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-14-22 | Royals v. Giants OVER 8 | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. We settled for a 'push' with the 'over' in the opener of this series last night. We were probably fortunate to get the 'push' given the game saw just 11 total hits. Here, I expect more runs on the board as the Royals send Kris Bubic to the hill. Bubic has posted a 6.54 FIP and 2.03 WHIP in 22 2/3 innings of work this season. He's been tagged for just shy of 12 hits per nine innings. Opponents are averaging north of nine runs per nine innings against the left-hander this season. After struggling to make good contact against right-hander Brady Singer last night, the Giants will be pleased to face the southpaw Bubic here, noting that they've been at their best against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. Logan Webb is the Giants ace but I will point out that he'll be pitching on short rest (four days) for a third consecutive start on Tuesday. He has allowed at least three runs in eight of his last 10 starts with opponents averaging just under four runs per nine innings against him this season. The Royals bats were quiet last night but had delivered at least 10 hits in five consecutive games prior to that. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
06-14-22 | Storm v. Lynx UNDER 158.5 | 81-79 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Minnesota at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Seattle is coming off consecutive 'over' results in a two-game set in Dallas. The Wings shot exceptionally well in those two contests, knocking down 30 and 31 field goals. I don't expect the short-handed Lynx to do the same against the Storm on Tuesday. Note that Minnesota is coming off a strong shooting performance of its own, making good on 32-of-71 field goal attempts but that came against the lowly Indiana Fever - arguably the worst defensive team in the league. It will face a much different challenge here. Note that in the first meeting between these two teams this season, a healthier Minnesota squad got off a whopping 79 FG attempts but still scored just 74 points. Seattle has been ultra-efficient offensively over its last several games but certainly isn't playing at all that fast of a pace. The Storm have attempted just 61, 67 and 62 field goals in their last three contests. I suspect we'll see them 'manage' proceedings should they build a lead here, noting that they're in the midst of a five-game in 10-night road trip. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 18-7 the last 25 times Minnesota has come off consecutive home losses, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-14-22 | A's v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The 'over' went 2-0-1 when these two clubs met in a three-game series in Oakland earlier this month but it's not as if that series was particularly high-scoring as all three games totalled eight runs or less. Here, we're dealing with a higher total with the scene shifting to Boston and I believe it will prove too high. Jared Koenig gets the nod for the A's, making his second big league start. His first didn't go particularly well but it could have been worse. He lasted four innings, allowing four earned runs on five hits against a red hot Braves lineup, on the road no less. Koenig got the call-up after pitching exceptionally well at AAA this season, recording a 2.21 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 53 innings of work. After a shaky start to the season, Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta has really turned it around, lowering his FIP to 3.56 and his WHIP to 1.14. He's giving up just north of seven hits and right around 3.8 hits per nine innings. He's faced the A's twice since last season and on both occasions tossed seven shutout innings. With both teams checking in following an off-day on Monday, it should be all hands on deck as far as the bullpens go. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-14-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The 'over' went 2-0-1 when these two clubs met in a three-game series in Oakland earlier this month but it's not as if that series was particularly high-scoring as all three games totalled eight runs or less. Here, we're dealing with a higher total with the scene shifting to Boston and I believe it will prove too high. Jared Koenig gets the nod for the A's, making his second big league start. His first didn't go particularly well but it could have been worse. He lasted four innings, allowing four earned runs on five hits against a red hot Braves lineup, on the road no less. Koenig got the call-up after pitching exceptionally well at AAA this season, recording a 2.21 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 53 innings of work. After a shaky start to the season, Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta has really turned it around, lowering his FIP to 3.56 and his WHIP to 1.14. He's giving up just north of seven hits and right around 3.8 hits per nine innings. He's faced the A's twice since last season and on both occasions tossed seven shutout innings. With both teams checking in following an off-day on Monday, it should be all hands on deck as far as the bullpens go. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-14-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Nationals | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm not sure Max Fried gets nearly enough credit as he's clearly one of the best starting pitchers in baseball and has been for a number of years. We've seen more of the same from Fried this season as he has recorded an impressive 2.90 FIP and 1.04 WHIP, not to mention a near 6-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Meanwhile, the Nationals are forced to turn to Jackson Tetreault on short notice after Stephen Strasburg landed back in the I.L. Tetreault has posted a 4.19 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 58 innings of work at the AAA level this season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio sits just north of 2-1 and that's against AAA hitters. While the Braves bullpen owns an edge over the Nationals relief corps at the best of times, here we find Washington's 'pen overworked, having logged north of 30 innings over their last seven games. Even if Atlanta can't break it open early, I'm confident they will late. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
06-14-22 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 8 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees beat up on Cubs pitching all weekend long but after an off-day on Monday, I suspect they'll find the going much tougher against the Rays pitching staff on Tuesday. Corey Kluber will get the start for Tampa Bay. He's pitched well this season, including in a previous start against New York in which he gave up just one earned run over six innings back on May 28th. Kluber owns a 3.65 FIP and 1.15 WHIP this season, highlighted by just 1.5 walks per nine innings. His counterpart on Tuesday will be Yankees starter Gerrit Cole, who looks to bounce back from an ugly outing in Minnesota last week. In that start, Cole was rocked for seven earned runs including five home runs in just 2 1/3 innings. It happens. New York actually went on to win that game by a 10-7 score so no harm, no foul I suppose. In spite of that poor performance, Cole has still posted a solid 3.58 FIP and 1.08 WHIP this season. He's allowed just north of seven hits and 3.6 runs per nine innings. Note that Cole was on the mound for that game against Kluber on May 28th and he also gave up just one earned run over six innings. I like the fact that both teams follow an off-day here, giving their bullpens some much-needed rest. Both 'pens have performed well lately with the Rays relief corps recording a 1.23 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over their last seven games and the Yanks 'pen checking in with a 1.97 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
06-14-22 | Latvia -1.5 v. Liechtenstein | 2-0 | Win | 107 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Latvia -1.5 goals over Liechtenstein at 2:45 pm et on Tuesday. It's difficult enough for teams in the higher Nations League divisions to get up for these last matches prior to a much-needed summer break, let alone a bottom-feeding minnow such as Liechtenstein. While Latvia paces the D division, Liechtenstein sits at the bottom, having managed just one goal in three Nations League matches - that coming against fellow minnow Andorra. Latvia only managed to defeat today's opponent by a 1-0 score in their previous meeting on June 6th. It wasn't for lack of trying, however, as the Latvians pressed for 90 minutes, possessing the ball at a 62% clip while firing an incredible 20 shots from inside the box. They made a whopping 376 accurate passes in the match compared to 196 by Liechtenstein. While Liechtenstein does have the benefit of home field advantage for this rematch, I expect Latvia to be all-business as it looks to wrap up a perfect group stage in convincing fashion. Take Latvia -1.5 goals (9*). |
|||||||
06-14-22 | Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 9.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and St. Louis at 1:15 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Cardinals won by a 7-5 score. The 'over' has now cashed in three straight games involving the Cards and I expect that streak to continue in Game 1 of Tuesday's double-header in St. Louis. Pirates starter JT Brubaker hasn't pitched well this season, posting a 4.35 FIP and 1.42 WHIP. Interestingly, that FIP is actually lower than his career number of 4.71. Cards rookie Matthew Liberatore has been far worse, even though we are talking about a small sample size of just three starts. He has recorded a 7.45 FIP and 1.85 WHIP. He checks in allowing over 11 hits and five walks per nine innings. Add in two struggling bullpens and I'm counting on plenty of offense on Tuesday. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
06-13-22 | Royals v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. Scoring runs hasn't been a problem for the Royals lately. Keeping their opponents' bats at bay has been. Kansas City checks in having scored 8, 7, 8 , 4 and 7 runs over its last five games, recording double-digit hit totals in each of those contests. On the flip side, they've been lit up for 10+ hits in seven of their last eight games, allowing 5+ runs on six occasions over that stretch. I expect more of the same on Monday, even as they travel to San Francisco to face a Giants club that has seen the 'under' go 5-0-2 over its last seven contests. After facing Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias over the last two games, Royals starter Brady Singer will offer a welcome change of pace for the Giants on Monday. Singer is allowing well north of nine hits and just shy of two home runs per nine innings this season with a disappointing 4.16 FIP. He hasn't issued a single walk over his last three starts yet still gave up 13 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings, which is telling. Giants starter Alex Wood is coming off a dominant seven-inning performance against the Rockies last time out but those type of performances have been few and far between. He sports a 4.74 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in five home starts this season. Like Singer, he is also giving up north of nine hits per nine innings and while he's done a good job of keeping the ball in the park, he does yield 2.4 walks per nine innings. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 36-17 when the Royals play on the road against N.L. West opponents with those games averaging 10.0 total runs. The 'over' is also 16-6 with the Giants coming off an underdog win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 8.3 runs. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
06-13-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Boston plus the points over Golden State at 9 pm et on Monday. Most had probably written the Warriors off at the end of the first half in Game 4 on Friday as they coughed up a second quarter lead and went into the break down by five points, looking down-trodden at best. From there, Steph Curry took over, lifting them to a much-needed victory to even this series at two games apiece. Now it's the Celtics turn to respond and I expect them to do just that on Monday. Note that Golden State knocked down 40 field goals for the first time in this series on Friday, but only got there thanks to getting off 91 field goal attempts. I don't expect that same pace to be there for the Warriors on Monday, however. In three meetings between these two teams in San Francisco this season, Boston has held Golden State to 86, 88 and 86 field goal attempts. It's certainly worth noting that the Celtics have allowed fewer than 40 made field goals in all seven games following a loss in these playoffs. They've also gone a perfect 7-0 in those contests. Note that Boston checks in 10-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss this season and 15-5 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite, with both situations coming into play following Friday's 107-97 loss. Take Boston (10*). |
|||||||
06-13-22 | Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 105 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. While it may not garner much attention, Monday's series-opener between the Marlins and Phillies features a tremendous starting pitching matchup between Sandy Alcantara and Aaron Nola. Alcantara is an early N.L. Cy Young candidate - or should be at least. He probably doesn't get enough press since he pitches in Miami where the Marlins haven't been relevant for years. All Alcantara has done is post a 1.61 ERA and 0.94 WHIP not to mention a sub-2.00 FIP (1.96). While his 2.6 walks per nine innings are somewhat concerning, he's negated those by allowing just 5.9 hits and striking out 8.3 batters per nine innings. Aaron Nola is coming off one of his best outings of the young season for the Phillies. He has seen his ERA drop to 3.50 and WHIP to 0.88. He's right there with Alcantara with a 3.24 FIP. Nola does allow right around a hit more per nine innings than Alcantara but also issues just 1.2 walk on average. While both bullpens have had their issues at times this season, I don't rate either offense all that high and feel we're in for a pitcher's duel on Monday. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
06-13-22 | Israel v. Iceland OVER 2.5 | 2-2 | Win | 110 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Iceland and Israel at 2:45 pm et on Monday. I'll keep it simple with this play. These two countries just met on the pitch back on June 2nd and the result was a 2-2 draw. Israel has now gone 10 consecutive matches without recording a clean sheet and I expect that streak to remain intact as it travels to face Iceland for a rematch on Monday. It's a similar story for Iceland as it had conceded at least a goal in seven consecutive contests prior to posting a 1-0 victory over minnow San Marino in an international friendly on June 9th. Both sides are vulnerable at the back-end and both have what I would consider second-rate keepers between the sticks. I also feel that both offensive attacks are very underrated - Israel in particular. Note that the 'over' 2.5 has now come through in nine of Israel's last 10 matches while Iceland has conceded first in five of its last six contests, with both sides scoring in six of its last eight. We'll take a flyer with the 'over' at a generous return again here. Take the over (6*). |
|||||||
06-12-22 | Storm v. Wings UNDER 159.5 | Top | 84-79 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Dallas at 4 pm et on Sunday. We're dealing with a considerably higher total than we saw in the front half of this two-game set between the Storm and Wings in Dallas on Friday. That game finished with a whopping 177 points. Keep in mind, these two teams just met last week in Seattle and reached only 119 points. I believe Sunday's total will prove too high. Seattle absolutely shot the lights out on Friday night, knocking down 37-of-67 field goal attempts. The Storm also turned in an uncharacteristically poor defensive performance, allowing 30 made field goals. Here, I look for Seattle to 'manage' proceedings somewhat as it continues a tough five-game in 10-night road trip. Dallas checks in averaging just 26-of-68 shooting here at home this season. On the flip side, the Wings have held opponents to 29-of-64 shooting in the host role and should make the necessary adjustments after getting lit up by the Storm on Friday. Note that the 'under' is 12-4 with the Storm coming off consecutive wins over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 153.8 points. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
06-12-22 | Portugal v. Switzerland OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Switzerland and Portugal at 2:45 pm et on Sunday. No Cristiano Ronaldo, among others, for Portugal on Sunday but I still expect it to find the back of the net without much resistance from a Swiss side that has had a miserable time dealing with numerous key defensive absences and ailments in Nations League play. Switzerland is now winless in its last five matches, failing to post a clean sheet in any of those contests and I would anticipate a similar story unfolding here. I do, however, expect the Swiss to find some offensive success here after getting shut out by Spain last time out. Of course, that was their second straight match failing to score after a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the same Portugal side they'll face on Sunday back on June 5th. They're likely to face a slightly weaker version this time around, however, opening the door for them to perhaps close the gap. With Portugal having struck first in five of its last six matches, Switzerland will undoubtedly come out with an attacking mindset here as it looks to finally break the seal again having not scored since a 2-1 loss to the Czech Republic on June 2nd. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
06-12-22 | Marlins v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Miami at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. Marlins starter Edward Cabrera is off to a terrific start this season, allowing just one earned run in 12 innings of work. Of course, he's been able to pitch comfortably in both of those outings as his team's bats absolutely exploded, putting up 14 runs against Colorado and 12 runs against Washington. I expect a much different story to unfold today as the Marlins go up against Astros ace Justin Verlander. Verlander hardly pitched over the last two seasons but has come back strong here in 2022, posting a 2.13 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 71 2/3 innings of work. The Astros check in 7-1 over his last eight outings, winning four of those games by at least two runs, including a 4-1 victory over Seattle earlier this week - a game in which Verlander allowed only one earned run while striking out a season-high 12 in seven innings. Here, we'll note that the Marlins are a woeful 1-10 when coming off five consecutive games in which they allowed four runs or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 2.5 runs on average in that situation. After dropping the first two games in this series we'll look for the Astros to bounce back big on Sunday. Take Houston -1.5 (10*). |
|||||||
06-11-22 | Aces v. Sparks UNDER 174.5 | 89-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Las Vegas and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Saturday. The most recent meeting between these two teams saw the Aces set a WNBA three-point record in a 104-76 rout, easily cruising 'over' the posted total on that night. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday, however, yet we're being afforded a considerably higher total. The Sparks have had a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, attempting only 56, 56 and 59 field goals over their last three games. That's obviously not going to cut it against a team as strong as the Aces. With that being said, I'm not convinced the Sparks are interested in getting involved in another track meet here. Las Vegas hasn't played in nearly a week, last taking the floor in an 84-78 win over Dallas last Sunday. Note that only one of the Aces last four games has managed to go 'over' the total we're working with tonight. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-11-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 49 m | Show |
My selection is on New York +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Lightning were left for dead in this series by some after digging an 0-2 hole entering Game 3 last Sunday. They also trailed Game 3 by two goals in the second period before rallying for a 3-2 victory. Save for their 4-1 Game 4 victory nothing has come all that easy for the Bolts in this series and that's to be expected as they're getting the Rangers best punch as they try to march on to their third straight Stanley Cup Final (and potential championship). I don't expect the Blueshirts to go away quietly on Saturday and we'll gladly grab the insurance goal as they try to stave off elimination. Note that New York checks in 11-3 after allowing 3+ goals in three consecutive games this season, outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal on average in that situation. The Rangers have allowed just 1.6 goals per game and outscored opponents by 1.2 goals on average when playing on the road seeking revenge for three consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons (11-game sample size), as is the case here. Finally, we'll note that Tampa Bay is just 2-7 and has been outscored by an average margin of 2.2 goals after winning eight or more of its last 10 games this season, which is also the situation here. Take New York +1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
06-11-22 | Marlins v. Astros -1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Miami at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Astros have had a miserable week so far but I look for them to bounce back from Friday's loss on Saturday afternoon against Miami. Framber Valdez has arguably been the Astros most reliable starter this season, going 6-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Braxton Garrett has made just one start for the Marlins this season but his career numbers aren't all that encouraging. In 45 career big league innings he has posted a 5.19 FIP, allowing 11 hits and 5.2 walks per nine innings. While his strikeout numbers are there, he's not likely going to get a loaded Astros lineup chasing too often on Saturday. We'll lay the extra run with Houston here, noting that it has won each of Valdez's last five starts by multiple runs. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
06-11-22 | Brewers -159 v. Nationals | 6-8 | Loss | -159 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Washington at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Brewers finally have a true pitching mismatch in their favor on Saturday as they look to end their ugly seven-game losing streak. The Nats are just 8-12 against left-handed starters this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 runs in those games. They'll face a southpaw in Eric Lauer on Saturday. Lauer has posted a 3.68 FIP this season, compared to Patrick Corbin's 4.23 ledger. Lauer has also recorded a solid 1.11 WHIP. For his part, Corbin has posted a poor 1.76 WHIP. Layer also checks in allowing nearly five fewer hits while recording almost three more strikeouts per nine innings this season. Go up and down the list of categories and Lauer has been vastly superior to Corbin and I expect him to help the Brew Crew right the ship on Saturday afternoon. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
|||||||
06-10-22 | Rockies v. Padres -1.5 | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Colorado at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Rockies barely broke a sweat in taking two of three games from the slumping Giants in San Francisco. I suspect they'll find the going much tougher as they head to San Diego on Friday. Credit Chad Kuhl for holding up well for the Rockies after coming over from the Pirates in the offseason. It's not easy to go from making the majority of your starts at pitcher-friendly PNC Park in Pittsburgh to hitter's paradise Coors Field in Denver. He's not at the same level as Padres starter Joe Musgrove though, who belongs firmly in the N.L. Cy Young conversation based on early returns this season. While Kuhl has posted a 3.94 FIP, Musgrove checks in with a 2.76. Musgrove averages 1.4 fewer walks per nine innings while striking out 1.9 strikeouts more. That's not to mention the fact that Musgrove is giving up just 0.5 home runs per nine innings. Of course, starting pitching is only part of the equation and right now hitting appears to be a mismatch as well as the Padres have been absolutely raking lately, plating 42 runs in their last six games including 25 in taking two of three from the Mets here at Petco Park earlier this week. As I mentioned, the Rockies bats weren't exactly tearing the cover off the ball in San Francisco, they simply outlasted a Giants offense that simply isn't producing right now. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (9*). |
|||||||
06-10-22 | Warriors +4 v. Celtics | Top | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 35 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Finals First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State first half plus the points over Boston at 9 pm et on Friday. The Warriors didn't play particularly well in Game 3 of this series as the 'zig-zag' trend continued. Here, I look for a positive response from Golden State, at least early in Game 4 on Friday night. Note that the Warriors are 30-15 ATS in the first half after suffering a loss by 15+ points in their previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.0 point on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Celtics are a woeful 5-15 ATS in the first half when playing at home off a home victory this season, outscored by 0.1 points on average in that spot. I'm not willing to bet against the Celtics making the necessary halftime adjustments at home should they fall behind early in this one, instead we'll grab the points with Golden State in the first 24 minutes on Friday. Take Golden State first half (10*). |
|||||||
06-10-22 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 215.5 | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 35 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Wednesday but it wasn't nearly as straightforward as it should have been with the fourth quarter totalling just 34 points. I expect to see some carry-over from that low-scoring quarter of basketball in Game 4 on Friday night. Credit the Celtics for doing a great job of keeping the explosive Warriors offense in check so far in this series. They've held Golden State to 88, 86 and 78 field goal attempts through the first three games. They've also limited the Warriors to fewer than 40 made field goals in all three contests. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time Boston allowed an opponent to make good on 40+ field goals. On the flip side, note that Golden State has held eight straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Boston did knock down 43 field goals in Game 3 on Wednesday but we've seen positive responses from the Warriors defense in similar situations lately. The last three times they've allowed 40+ made field goals, the Warriors have held opponents to 34, 37 and 30 made field goals in their next game, yielding just 98 points per game in those three contests. The 'under' is 68-48 with Golden State coming off a loss over the last three seasons while the 'under' has gone 32-18 with Boston checking in as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, as is the case at the time of writing. We'll continue to go against the adjustments made to the total in this series and call for a lower-scoring contest than expected on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
06-10-22 | Ottawa v. Winnipeg UNDER 48 | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The CFL made a number of offseason rule changes in an effort to increase scoring after it was down across the league, particularly in the early stages of last season. Last night, we saw the season-opener between the Alouettes and Stampeders total 57 points. With that being said, that result had more to do with the early execution of the two offenses than it did any rule changes. Here, I look for a different story to unfold as the Redblacks challenge the two-time defending champion Blue Bombers in Winnipeg on Friday. Ottawa overhauled its roster in the offseason as wholesale changes were necessary following a dismal 2021 campaign - particularly on the offensive side of the football. In comes former Tiger-Cats QB Jeremiah Masoli to run the offense, with plenty of other weapons added to the roster as well. One of those weapons will serve as the backfield leader in veteran RB William Powell. Unfortunately, he's injured and has been ruled out for Friday's game. I do think it will take some time for Masoli to mesh with his new receiving corps. This game serves as a 'baptism by fire' against perhaps the league's most dominant defense in Winnipeg. I don't expect the Redblacks to put too much on Masoli's plate here, even if they'd love to open things up right out of the gate. They can afford to stay somewhat conservative offensively because their defense has the chance to be terrific, with a number of new recruits on board. Keep in mind, the Redblacks defense was solid at times last season, it was simply on the field too much and injuries ultimately took their toll. I love the additions they made in the offseason with Patrick Levels and Money Hunter among those coming over from the Als in particular. Speaking of defense, the Blue Bombers are once again loaded in that department. That's certainly nothing new after they gave up a grand total of only 15 touchdowns all of last season. While the offense adds standout WR Greg Ellingson, it loses RB Andrew Harris. It remains to be seen whether RB Brady Oliveira can pick up the slack following Harris' departure - it will likely be more of a running back by committee situation in the early going. While the Bombers are favored heavily in this game, I do expect a hard-fought affair and believe the total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
06-10-22 | Storm -2.5 v. Wings | Top | 89-88 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
WNBA Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Storm in the last meeting between these two teams last week as Seattle was trounced by 17 points, at home no less. The Wings have now taken the last two matchups in this series but I look for the Storm to get their revenge on Friday. This will be Dallas' first game back home since May 21st as it comes off a tough five-game road trip that saw it go 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS. We saw some signs of tired legs from the Wings at the tail-end of that trip as they knocked down just 26 and 27 field goals in their last two games. In the latter performance they actually got off a whopping 78 field goal attempts against Las Vegas. That doesn't bode well as they prepare to face a stingy Storm defense that has allowed fewer than 70 field goal attempts in nine of its last 10 games. While Wings' opponents have been 'filling it up' lately, making good on 30+ field goals in three of their last four games, the Storm have limited four of their last five opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. We'll note that Seattle is a long-term 104-77 ATS when coming off four or five losses ATS in their last six games, as is the case here. The best is yet to come from the Storm at both ends of the floor and I look for them to build off Tuesday's double-digit win over the Dream on Friday. Take Seattle (10*). |
|||||||
06-10-22 | Pirates v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. This game doesn't exactly feature a matchup of household names when it comes to the two starting pitchers. Not yet at least. Both young starters have impressed in the early going this season, however, and I'm counting on them both to hold up on Friday night also. Roansy Contreras got a very big taste of the big leagues last year, logging only three innings for the Pirates after a late season call-up. In those three innings he struck out four and walked only one without allowing a single earned run. He's picked up where he left off this season, giving up just five earned runs in 23 1/3 innings of work. He enters Friday's start with an impressive 3.18 FIP and 1.03 WHIP. He's allowing just over six hits per nine innings while striking out an average of 10 per nine innings. If you can believe it, Braves starter Spencer Strider has been even better. Like Contreras, he had a cup of coffee at the big league level last season, pitching just 2 1/3 innings. Here in 2022 he has recorded a terrific 2.19 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in 32 2/3 innings of work. He's striking out an incredible 13.5 hitters per nine innings while allowing just 5.5 hits. Command has been a bit of an issue as he walks five per nine innings but I'm not convinced the Pirates have the offense capable of making him pay. We're working with a fairly high total in this game by today's MLB standards. I believe it will prove too high. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-10-22 | Brewers -157 v. Nationals | 5-11 | Loss | -157 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I like the pitching mismatch we have here with Aaron Ashby going for the reeling Brewers against Erick Fedde of the lowly Nationals. Both pitchers have logged a similar number of innings this season with Ashby working 46 and Fedde going 51 2/3. While Ashby has recorded a 3.16 FIP, Fedde checks in sporting a 4.44 FIP. Ashby allows 2.6 fewer hits per nine innings, slightly fewer home runs and walks per nine innings as well. He also averages 4.2 more strikeouts per nine innings than Fedde. While the Brewers have certainly been slumping, they are getting healthier with Willy Adames the most notable hitter to return to the lineup this week (he homered in yesterday's loss). They'll probably be happy to get on the road at this point after a miserable homestand that saw them drop six consecutive games after opening a series against the Padres with a win over a week ago. Milwaukee was able to get a head start to Washington following a matinee affair on Thursday while the Nationals travel north following a night game to wrap up their series in Miami. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
|||||||
06-10-22 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 5-7 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I like the pitching matchup here as the D'Backs and Phillies open their series in the City of Brotherly Love on Friday evening. The D'Backs have to be a little road-weary at this point as they continue on their 10-game road trip on the opposite side of the country. Zac Gallen is certainly capable of giving them a lift on Friday though, noting that he has posted a terrific 3.25 FIP and 0.96 WHIP in 56 1/3 innings of work this season. Kyle Gibson hasn't been quite as impressive for the Phillies but that doesn't mean he hasn't pitched well. He enters Friday's start sporting a 3.46 WHIP and is right here with Gallen in terms of home runs and walks allowed per nine innings, not to mention strikeouts per nine innings. Where we do see a gap is in hits allowed per nine innings, as Gallen has given up 2.6 fewer. However, that should be somewhat negated by the fact that the Snakes aren't exactly an elite offensive club and I do feel Gibson is more than capable of taming their lineup here. The Phillies bats came alive against the reeling Brewers in Milwaukee but I believe they're in for a bit of a reality check against Gallen. It was enough of a struggle for the D'Backs to put together big innings against the lowly Reds and things certainly won't get any easier for them here. Expect runs to come at a premium on Friday. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-10-22 | France -135 v. Austria | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Nations League Game of the Month. My selection is on France over Austria at 2:45 pm et on Friday. France has been rather unimpressive through its first two matches in Nations League action, coming away with just a single point thanks to a draw with Croatia last time out. We didn't see France's 'A' squad in that match but we're likely to here. Austria is off to an up-and-down start, delivering a 3-0 knockout punch against Croatia before falling to Denmark last time out. While it would certainly relish the opportunity to come away with at least a point here to improve its standing in the group, I expect it to be in tough. The Austrian starting XI is filled with Bundesliga talent, particularly at the back-end. I don't necessarily look at that as a positive - at least not as it prepares to go against a team like France. Note that the Austrians have found the back of the net in six consecutive matches across all competitions (since getting shut out by Denmark in World Cup Qualifying last October). I believe that streak could be in jeopardy here with France likely to go back to the experienced Hugo Lloris between the sticks on Friday. Note that the French have been first to score in five of their last six matches. This time I look for them to make it stand up for 90 minutes. Take France (10*). |
|||||||
06-09-22 | Montreal +3.5 v. Calgary | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 37 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal plus the points over Calgary at 9 pm et on Thursday. While the Alouettes reached the East semis against Hamilton last year, optimism isn't particularly high heading into the 2022 campaign, with more of the talk surrounding who isn't back rather than who is. Regardless, I like their opening week matchup as they head west to face a Calgary squad that many seem to be high on, but I'm not so easily convinced. QB Bo Levi Mitchell is one of the league's biggest stars but at 32 years old and coming off another injury-plagued season, I question whether he's all the way back. We saw him appear in just one preseason game, completing 3-of-10 passes for 37 yards. I realize preseason results can be taken with a grain of salt but that performance certainly wasn't all that encouraging. The Stamps offense will go as far as RB Kadeem Carey can take them - I'm just not sure there's enough there at the skill positions to provide a great deal of support. The addition of LB Cameron Judge from Toronto is intriguing but I would rate the Stamps defense as average at best, and then enter Week 1 missing a number of key cogs in the secondary due to various injuries, including newly-acquired DB Elie Bouka. It's also worth noting that Calgary is expected to be without punter Cody Grace for this game as well as he deals with a groin injury. Specials teams are an often overlooked but particularly important part of the game when handicapping the CFL and its unique rules. I'm high on the Als offense once again this year with RB William Stanback and WRs Eugene Lewis and Jake Weineke. The offense has the potential to be quite versatile once again with Trevor Harris capable of stepping in for Vernon Adams Jr. under centre should the latter falter. Take Montreal (10*). |
|||||||
06-09-22 | Lightning v. Rangers OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We've been riding the 'under' in this series but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as the scene shifts back to Madison Square Garden for Game 5 on Thursday. While I hesitate to say that the Bolts have 'solved' Rangers all-world goaltender Igor Shesterkin, they've certainly put a dent in his armor over the last couple of games, scoring six goals on the Hart Trophy candidate. Note that all six of those goals have come in the last four-and-a-half periods. Shesterkin has looked a little tired, and gets little relief here with just one day between games once again. The Rangers struggled to sustain any sort of offensive attack in the last two games in Tampa but we should see a different story unfold back in New York, noting that the Blueshirts average 3.4 goals per game on home ice and put nine pucks in the back of the net in Games 1 and 2. The Bolts haven't been nearly as stingy on the road as they've been at home this season, allowing 3.1 goals per contest. Note that the 'over' is 17-8 with the Lightning playing on the road off five or six wins over their last seven games this season, leading to an average total of 7.2 goals. Meanwhile, the Rangers have posted a 12-4 o/u mark when coming off a road loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 7.3 goals in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
06-09-22 | Spain v. Switzerland OVER 2.5 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Switzerland and Spain at 2:45 pm et on Thursday. The Swiss are in tough right now, missing a number of key cogs at the back-end and things certainly won't get any easier against a Spanish side still hungry for its first victory in Nations League play on Thursday. With Fabian Schar, Nico Elvedi and Manuel Akanji all in line to miss Thursday's match, it's going to be awfully difficult for Switzerland to contend with Spain's offensive attack. While Spain is known for possessing the ball but not always fruitful in attack in recent years, it would be wise to apply all the pressure it can on Switzerland's leaky, undermanned defense. On the flip side, Switzerland was held off the scoreboard entirely in a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of Portugal last time out. I do think we see it respond with a favorable performance here in Geneva on Thursday. Note that it has managed to find the back of the net in three of its last four matches with Spain, despite receiving red cards in each of the last two meetings. Spain has allowed at least a goal in three of its last four matches going back to March, only managing to keep Iceland off the scoreboard in a friendly. I don't have a lot of confidence in underwhelming Spain keeper Unai Simon posting a clean sheet here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
06-09-22 | Phillies v. Brewers -157 | 8-3 | Loss | -157 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Philadelphia at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The Brewers welcomed Willy Adames back to the lineup last night, but it wasn't close to enough as Milwaukee dropped its fifth consecutive game, falling 10-0 against the Phillies. Not only will the team be looking to bounce back on Thursday, but starting pitcher Corbin Burnes in particular. He was shelled over 3 2/3 innings against the Padres last time out, allowing five earned runs on eight hits. Chalk that up as an anomaly as Burnes still owns a 0.99 WHIP in five home starts this season. Better still, he has posted a 2.50 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 11 outings overall. That WHIP drops to 0.88 in four afternoon starts. Phillies starter Zach Eflin will look to make it four out of his last five quality outings, however, his only success this season has come at home. In four road outings he has posted a ridiculous 9.00 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. Here, we'll note that the Phillies are just 9-20 when playing on the road after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
|||||||
06-08-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 212.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 59 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series and the 'under' in Game 2. Both results were of the 'rocking chair' variety. Here, we'll continue to follow the zig-zag pattern for another game and back the 'over' as the scene shifts to Boston for Game 3 on Wednesday. The Warriors have now been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in each of the first two games of this series but still managed to score 108 and 107 points in those contests. Note that they haven't been held to less than 40 field goals in three consecutive games since March. After Golden State got off 88 and 86 field goal attempts in Games 1 and 2 I could certainly see the pace ticking up a bit here in Beantown, noting that Boston allowed Miami to attempt 92 and 90 field goals in Games 3 and 4 at home last round. Boston has allowed the opposition to get off 88+ field goal attempts in 10 of its last 14 games overall. Needless to say, the Celtics will be in bounce-back mode offensively after a dismal showing in Game 2. They managed to make good on just 30-of-80 field goal attempts in that contest after shooting a blistering 43-for-85 in Game 1. A return home should help, noting the C's have averaged 40 made field goals per contest at TD Garden this season. The lone regular season meeting between these two teams in Beantown saw neither team shoot particularly well with Golden State knocking down 39 field goals and Boston countering with 36, yet that contest still reached 218 total points. I believe an over-adjustment to the total has been made once again after the low-scoring result in Game 2. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
06-08-22 | Phillies v. Brewers +1.5 | 10-0 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm surprised we're seeing the Brewers in an underdog role here but perhaps shouldn't be as the Phillies have reeled off five consecutive victories while Milwaukee checks in riding a four-game skid. I'll take advantage of the opportunity to grab an insurance run at what I consider to be a reasonable price with the home side on Wednesday. Note that Philadelphia is a miserable 8-20 when playing on the road after winning five or six of its last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 1.0 run on average in that situation. They're also just 20-37 after giving up two runs or less in their previous game over the same stretch, outscored by 1.2 runs on average in that spot. The Brewers seemingly have the right pitcher on the mound to stop their skid, noting they've gone 9-1 in Adrian Houser's last 10 starts in an underdog role. Meanwhile, the Phillies are just 7-15 the last 22 times Aaron Nola takes the ball following a victory in their previous game. Take Milwaukee +1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
06-08-22 | Sky v. Mystics -3 | 82-84 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Chicago at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Credit the Sky for shooting the lights out in Sunday's 91-82 victory over the Mystics - improving to 2-0 in this matchup this season. I don't expect a repeat performance as the scene shifts to Washington for Wednesday's rematch, however. Note that Chicago continues to afford its opponents a ton of scoring opportunities, relatively speaking. The Sky have seen each of their last seven opponents get off at least 70 field goal attempts. Washington managed 75 on Sunday - 10 more than Chicago - but couldn't make the most of them, unable to keep pace with a Sky squad that was blistering from the field (55%). Washington does continue to do a fine job of keeping down its opponents scoring opportunities, allowing 66 or fewer FG attempts in 10 of its last 11 games. On the flip side, even with Elena Delle Donne in and out of the lineup, the Mystics have been 'filling it up', knocking down 28, 33, 28 and 34 field goals over their last four contests. Here, we'll note that Chicago is a long-term 43-65 ATS after scoring 90+ points in its previous game, as is the case here. Take Washington (6*). |
|||||||
06-08-22 | Fever v. Sun UNDER 165.5 | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Connecticut at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Considering the first meeting between these two teams this season saw a closing total of just 156 points, we're dealing with a considerable adjustment to the number here. Keep in mind, that first matchup was the first of a two-game set between the two squads here in Connecticut with the second seeing a closing total of 161.5. Both games went 'over' the total although the second matchup reached just 162 points, which would have stayed 'under' the total we're dealing with tonight. I think we see a bit of 'game management' from the Sun as they play their fifth game in the last nine nights (in four different cities) on Wednesday (before hosting Chicago on Friday). Note that Indiana has gone cold on its current road trip, knocking down just 25 and 23 field goals in losses in New York and Atlanta. Connecticut held Indiana to just 63 field goal attempts in both previous meetings this season. The Fever shot the lights out in the first matchup before the Sun made the necessary adjustments prior to the second. While Connecticut has seen the 'over' cash in each of its last four games, the pace hasn't necessarily been there as the Sun have gotten off just 59 and 58 FG attempts in their last two contests. Look for Wednesday's total to prove to be too high. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-08-22 | Poland v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Nations League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Belgium and Poland at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Belgium's 4-1 drubbing at the hands of the Netherlands in its Nations League opener last week and I won't hesitate to come right back with the same play here as it hosts Poland in Brussels on Wednesday. We certainly didn't see Belgium's 'A' game against Holland as it fielded a makeshift squad and lost Romelu Lukaku just 27 minutes into the match due to injury. It isn't expected to have standout goalkeeper Thibault Courtois for this contest and I'm confident in predicting another shaky performance from Club Brugge keeper Simon Mignolet in Courtois' absence. Poland didn't get a goal from Robert Lewandowksi but still managed to come away victorious by a 2-1 score against Wales last time out. I'm confident we'll see the all-world striker find the back of the net in this contest. Note that both teams have scored in six of Belgium's last seven matches across all competitions and not surprisingly, six of those seven contests went 'over' 2.5 total goals as well. After such a dismal showing against the Netherlands we can anticipate a positive response from Belgium here, particularly at home, but I'm not convinced it keeps a clean sheet against a confident Polish side that is undefeated in its last three matches. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
06-07-22 | Dream v. Storm -7 | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Atlanta at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I simply feel the Dream are in the wrong place at the wrong time on Tuesday night as they face a Storm squad coming off rare consecutive home losses. Seattle ran into a couple of red hot opponents in Dallas and Connecticut and suffered back-to-back defeats, as a favorite on both occasions. The Storm are favored again on Tuesday, and for good reason. Atlanta checks in off a nine-point victory over the lowly Indiana Fever. We've seen the Dream offense cool off over the last couple of games, making good on just 26 and 29 field goals. I'm not convinced they'll get a wealth of scoring opportunities in this one, noting that Seattle has held its last three opponents to just 65, 66 and 58 field goal attempts. Last time out, the Storm's opponent, an elite Connecticut Sun squad, shot the lights out - making good on 32 field goals. It happens. Seattle is still a top-flight defensive team, noting that it has held opponents to just 28-of-67 shooting on average here at home this season. Likewise, Atlanta has done a nice job of limiting its opponents opportunities lately, yielding 61 or fewer FG attempts in four of its last six games. Here, I expect Seattle to push the pace a little more than Atlanta's recent opponents, however, noting that the Storm have gotten off 70+ FG attempts in seven of their last nine contests. This is an ideal bounce-back spot for Seattle before it heads out on the road for a difficult five-game road trip. Take Seattle (8*). |
|||||||
06-07-22 | Rangers v. Lightning -164 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 8 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Lightning in Game 3 of this series on Sunday as they rallied from a 2-0 deficit to prevail by a 3-2 score. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Tampa Bay again in Game 4 on Tuesday as it looks to knot this series at two games apiece before heading back to Manhattan. The Lightning are now 32-15 on home ice this season including 5-1 in the playoffs. While the Bolts are known for their offense, they've been as stingy as they come here on home ice, allowing just 2.6 goals per game this season while outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average. The same trend we used to support our play on Tampa Bay in Game 3 still works in Game 4 as the Bolts are now an incredible 16-1 when playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last two seasons, allowing just 1.7 goals per contest and outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. The Rangers just haven't been the same team away from Madison Square Garden this season, posting a modest 27-22 record while failing to outscore their opponents on a per-game average. It seemed to me that the Lightning solved Rangers elite goaltender Igor Shesterkin as the game went on Sunday afternoon, peppering him with an incredible 52 shots on goal in that contest and finding the back of the net three times in the final 30 minutes. Expect some carry-over from that thrilling come-from-behind victory on Tuesday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
|||||||
06-07-22 | Phillies v. Brewers -108 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee over Philadelphia at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is a tough matchup for Phillies starter Ranger Suarez. The Brewers will be getting their second look at him this season. While they didn't have a ton of success against him last time around (they lost that game 4-2 in Philadelphia on April 22nd), it's not as if Suarez was dominant. He allowed four hits and issued three walks while striking out four over 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball in that game. I say it's a difficult matchup because Suarez has dealt with some command issues, particularly of late, as he's handed out seven walks in 8 2/3 innings over his last two starts and now faces a Brewers squad that ranks second in baseball in most pitches seen this season. In that vein, no team takes more first pitches than Milwaukee. They should be able to get Suarez's pitch count up early in this one and ultimately get into the Phillies weak bullpen fairly early. Note that Philadelphia's relief corps has posted a collective 4.71 ERA and 1.63 WHIP with just five saves converted and four blown on the road this season. Contrast that with the Brewers bullpen, which has recorded a 2.99 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, converting six saves while blowing just one here at home. Milwaukee will hand the ball to rookie Jason Alexander as he makes his second big league start. His first went well as he gave up just two earned runs over seven innings in a tough environment at Wrigley Field in Chicago. He should benefit from facing a Phillies club that ranks eight-worst in the majors in terms of chase percentage (that's the percentage of pitches outside of the zone that Phillies hitters swing at). Also note that Philadelphia ranks seventh-worst in the league in whiff percentage (percentage of pitches they swing-and-miss on without contact). Milwaukee is desperate for a win here off three straight losses to the Padres while Philadelphia is in a pretty obvious letdown spot off Sunday's stunning rally that helped complete a sweep of the reeling Angels and lead to a fourth straight win. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
|||||||
06-07-22 | Lynx v. Liberty -2.5 | Top | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Minnesota at 8 pm et on Tuesday. New York had its two-game win streak snapped at the hands of Minnesota on Sunday but I look for it to earn a quick ounce of revenge in Tuesday's rematch at Madison Square Garden. Minnesota's opponents have been 'filling it up', knocking down 31+ field goals in five of its last seven games with the low-water mark over that stretch being 28. Last time out, the Lynx shot the lights out but still won by 'only' seven points. The pace hasn't necessarily been there to match Minnesota's offensive production, noting that it has gotten off just 52, 60 and 63 field goal attempts over its last three games. I'm not convinced it can match the 31 made field goals it recorded on Sunday in Tuesday's rematch. I don't like what I've seen from the Lynx defensively as they've afforded their opponents far too many scoring opportunities, allowing 71 or more field goal attempts in four of their last five games. With New York coming off one of its best shooting efforts of the season on Sunday (it knocked down 32-of-71 FG attempts), I believe the door is open for it to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard on Tuesday. The Lynx have yet to string together consecutive victories this season and are 0-4 after scoring 80+ points, as is the case here. Take New York (10*). |
|||||||
06-07-22 | Diamondbacks +129 v. Reds | 8-14 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Reds routed the D'Backs in a rain-shortened seven-inning affair last night. I look for the Snakes to answer back on Tuesday. The only real difference between tonight's two young starting pitchers is the fact that Arizona left-hander Tyler Gilbert has a little more experience as he'll be making his ninth career big league start compared to Graham Ashcraft for the Reds who will toe the rubber for his fourth career start. Note that the Reds are just 6-11 against left-handed starters this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 runs in those contests. Ashcraft has pitched well in his first three outings but as time goes on opposing hitters will have a better idea of what to expect at the dish. Note that while he has given up just three earned runs in 17 2/3 innings as a starter this season he's only struck out nine while walking five. This will be his second time in the last three turns in the rotation starting on just four days' rest. Take Arizona (8*). |
|||||||
06-07-22 | Rangers +104 v. Guardians | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Cleveland at 3:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers suffered an excruciating loss against the Mariners on Sunday so perhaps last night's rain-out in Cleveland was a blessing in disguise as it gets them a little farther removed from that bad taste in their mouths. I don't really see any particular reason for the Guardians to be favored here in Game 1 of Tuesday's day-night double-header, noting that they're just 3-6 with Cal Quantrill on the mound this season, a stunning ledger when you consider how solid he's been all things considered. It has everything to do with the Guardians inability to consistently score runs and I suspect that could be a problem again this afternoon. Jon Gray has seemingly gotten stronger as the season goes on for the Rangers, working at least into the sixth inning in each of his last four starts. Interestingly, Texas has fared better on the road than at Globe Life Field, going an even 12-12 away from home while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.8 runs per game. We'll take a flyer on the Rangers in an underdog role here. Take Texas (8*). |
|||||||
06-07-22 | England v. Germany OVER 2.5 | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Germany and England at 2:45 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off rather uninspiring Nations League openers with England falling 1-0 to Hungary in a stunner in Budapest and Germany settling for a 1-1 draw against an Italy squad that is a shell of its former self. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as these two soccer powerhouses put on a show at Allianz Arena in Munich. Germany was fortunate to give up just a single goal against the Italians last time out. Its defense has appeared leaky at times while goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, while boasting an excellent track record, has struggled not only for his home country, but also for Bayern Munich in recent months. On the flip side, England didn't field its best squad against Hungary but we can anticipate changes to its lineup as it looks to avoid falling deeper into potential Nations League relegation on Tuesday. While I do feel England is rock solid at the back-end, it will be a difficult task trying to keep the German offense at bay for 90 minutes on Tuesday. Note that Germany remains undefeated in its last 10 matches across all competitions and has been first to score in five of its last six contests. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
06-06-22 | Avalanche v. Oilers UNDER 7 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
Western Conference Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Edmonton at 8 pm et on Monday. Bettors are still waiting for a return to the form that saw Game 1 of this series total a whopping 14 goals. We've cashed with the 'under' in each of the last two games and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 4 on Monday as we haven't seen much of an adjustment to the total at all at most books. Both teams will be missing some offensive firepower in this one with Evander Kane suspended for one game for his hit on Nazem Kadri (who will also be sidelined due to injury). The Oilers have now allowed 4+ goals in four straight games - the first time they've done that since January. On the flip side, the Avs have scored 4+ goals in each of the first three games in this series - the first time they've scored four goals or more in three consecutive games since January as well. While I've been critical of Oilers goaltender Mike Smith at times, he certainly hasn't been the problem in this series. In fact, in Game 3 he kept Edmonton in the game early, making a number of key saves on an Avs two-man advantage. Meanwhile, Pavel Francouz has filled in admirably for an injured Darcy Kuemper for Colorado. With Leon Draisaitl clearly not 100% healthy, the Oilers haven't been quite as much of a handful offensively, Connor McDavid's exploits aside. Here, we'll note that Edmonton has posted a 6-15 o/u record when playing at home off a home loss by 2+ goals over the last two seasons with that situation totalling an average of just 5.2 goals. The 'under' is also 10-3 with the Oilers having allowed 4+ goals in consecutive games this season, resulting in an average total of 5.8 goals in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
06-06-22 | Mariners v. Astros -154 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston over Seattle at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Mariners are 4-2 on their current road trip, delivering consecutive series victories over the Orioles and Rangers. Texas essentially handed Seattle the win yesterday, with a wild pitch resulting in the winning run in extra innings. I don't expect Houston to be in as giving of a mood on Monday. Note that the Astros have owned this series at home in recent years, taking 16 of 20 meetings at Minute Maid Park over the last three seasons. They swept the Mariners in a three-game series here at home earlier this season. With that being said, Seattle took two of three games from Houston in the Pacific Northwest last weekend so the Astros will be revenge-minded here. Robbie Ray won the American League Cy Young Award last year so the Mariners obviously expected big things from their offseason acquisition. However, to this point, the marriage hasn't gone well as Ray has posted a 4.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 11 starts. Worse still, on the road he's recorded a 5.86 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. The Astros check in 14-4 against left-handed starters this season. Cristian Javier will take teh ball for Houston. He loves facing the Mariners having yet to allow a single earned run in three previous starts against them, covering a span of 18 1/3 innings. Javier has made three home starts this season, posting a sparkling 0.53 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. Behind Javier is an Astros bullpen that has been lights out at home this season, recording a collective 1.35 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 66 2/3 innings of work, converting six saves while blowing just one. Take Houston (10*). |
|||||||
06-06-22 | Albania v. Iceland UNDER 2 | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Iceland and Albania at 2:45 pm et on Monday. Tough turnaround for Iceland here as it returns home from a trip to Israel that ended in a thrilling 2-2 draw. Things won't get any easier here as Iceland hosts Albania, which did not play its opening match which had been previously scheduled against Russia (for obvious reasons). Albania is the very definition of a 'tough out'. The difficulty for Albania here, however, is that it will be missing its two best attackers in Chelsea striker Armando Broja and Rey Manaj due to Covid protocols and injury, respectively. The Albanians are strong at the back-end, however, and will hope to scratch and claw their way to at least a point in this match. That would likely also be a favorable result in the eyes of Iceland. It certainly came away disappointed by the 2-2 draw in Israel if only because it led by a goal in the closing minutes before allowing the equalizer. With a rather punchless Albanian starting XI, Iceland may not find the same difficulty in keeping its opponent under wraps on Monday. Note that Iceland has gone winless across its last seven matches and has conceded first in five of its last six contests so it will certainly be focused on keeping its defensive shape in this one. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -4 | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 61 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Boston at 8 pm et on Sunday. We missed with our big play on the Warriors but did cash the 'over' in Game 1 of this series on Thursday. That was obviously a painful loss as Golden State entered the fourth quarter with a 12-point lead but couldn't make it stand up. Chalk it up to a case of the Celtics simply not missing from beyond the arc. Boston knocked down 21 three-pointers in that contest - similar to what we saw in Game 2 last round against the Heat. You may remember how Game 3 went as Miami controlled proceedings from the opening tip and cruised to an outright underdog road win. Here, the Warriors will look to bounce back on their home floor and I expect them to do just that. Note that Golden State is 25-12 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 6.3 points on average in that situation. Boston made good on 43 field goals in Game 1 and that's notable as it hasn't posted consecutive 40+ field goal games since Games 4 and 5 against Milwaukee back in the second round. Note that it lost the second of those games both SU and ATS. Take Golden State (10*). |
|||||||
06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 216 | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 58 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Golden State at 8 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Sunday. The pace certainly wasn't there for a game in the 220's on Thursday. Both teams simply shot exceptionally well from three-point range - Boston in particular as it knocked down a whopping 21 threes. We saw a similar story unfold in Game 2 last round against Miami as the Celtics hit 20+ three-pointers in a 127-point explosion. They never scored more than 103 points again in that seven-game series. Note that Boston allows just 12 made threes per game on the road this season while Golden State gives up an identical 12 threes per contest at home. The Celtics have now held nine of their last 10 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals - an incredible feat in today's NBA. The Warriors allowed Boston to make good on 43 field goals in the opener of this series but hasn't allowed consecutive opponents to hit more than 40 field goals since Game 5 against Memphis in the second round. In Game 6, Golden State held Memphis to just 96 points on 34 made field goals with that game easily staying 'under' the total. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
06-05-22 | Mystics v. Sky OVER 156 | Top | 82-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Chicago at 6 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' the last time these two teams met as they fell just short of the total with 155 points. We're actually dealing with an even lower posted total this time around as Washington enters this contest on a seven-game 'under' streak while Chicago has seen the 'under' cash in each of its last three games. Expect those streaks to end on Sunday. Washington is suddenly pushing the pace a bit, getting off 70+ field goal attempts in each of its last three games. It should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against the Sky, who have allowed 70+ field goal attempts in six straight contests. In the most recent meeting between these two teams Washington simply couldn't make good on its wealth of opportunities, knocking down just 27 of 72 FG attempts. The Mystics enter this game off three straight quality performances in which they made good on 28, 33 and 28 field goals. Chicago hasn't fared particularly well offensively in its last few games but back home, where it averages 31-of-70 shooting, I expect it to bounce back. Note that Washington, while a terrific defensive team, has still allowed 28 and 30 made field goals over its last two road contests. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
06-05-22 | Wings v. Aces -6.5 | 78-84 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Dallas at 6 pm et on Sunday. We missed fading the Wings in their most recent game as they stunned Seattle by double-digits on Friday night. I expect a different story to unfold as they continue their road trip in Las Vegas on Sunday. Note that Dallas' win on Friday had everything to do with Seattle coming out completely flat, ultimately making good on just 20-of-63 field goal attempts in that game. Here, the Wings aren't likely to be so fortunate against an Aces squad that has been absolutely filling it up (as usual), knocking down 31+ field goals in six straight games. While the Aces haven't exactly been dominant defensively - far from it, in fact- they do catch a favorable matchup here as Dallas wraps up a long five-game road trip, noting that it has made good on 28 or fewer field goals in three of its last four contests. Take Las Vegas (8*). |
|||||||
06-05-22 | Rangers v. Lightning -170 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 3 pm et on Sunday. As I've pointed out time and time again in these playoffs, long winning streaks just aren't commonplace in the NHL postseason. We saw that play out at the start of this series as the Rangers snapped Tampa's six-game winning streak with a victory in Game 1 (and then went on to win Game 2 as well). Now we'll look for the Lightning to bring an end to the Rangers four-game winning streak, noting that New York is just 5-15 when playing on the road after scoring 3+ goals in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.4 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Lightning are an incredible 12-1 when playing at home seeking revenge for a one-goal loss against an opponent over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by 2.2 goals on average. Tampa Bay also checks in 15-1 when playing at home coming off two losses in its last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.9 goals on average in that spot. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
|||||||
06-05-22 | Rangers v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 3 pm et on Sunday. While the scene will shift to Tampa for Game 3 of this series on Sunday afternoon, I'm not convinced that means the floodgates will suddenly open for the Lightning and we'll see a high-scoring affair. Nothing has come easy for the Bolts through the first two games of this series and noting that Brayden Point remains sidelined, I don't see that changing on Sunday. They're going to need to grind it out and that's just fine as they've actually thrived playing that style at home this season, going 31-15 while allowing just 2.6 goals per game. On the flip side, we'll note that the Rangers average just 2.9 goals per game on the road this season and check in sporting an 11-19 o/u mark when coming off four wins in their last five games, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 5.3 goals. The 'under' is 19-8 with New York playing on the road with the total set at 5.5 this season, resulting in an average total of only 5.2 goals. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
06-05-22 | Slovenia v. Serbia -203 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Serbia over Slovenia at 2:45 pm et on Sunday. I understand bettors' hesitance to back Serbia at this price after it was held off the scoreboard entirely in a 1-0 loss against Norway in its Nations League opener. It probably deserved a better fate in that match, seemingly waking up a little too late to mount a comeback. Here, I look for the Serbians to make amends in a more favorable matchup against Slovenia. The Slovenians fell by a 2-0 score against Sweden. The Swedes had been slumbering so that was certainly a discouraging result for Slovenia, which did have the potential to come away with a point in that match but ultimately squandered it. Here, it travels to Belgrade where Serbia should be in a foul mood and eager to pick up all three points. Note that Slovenia has now gone consecutive matches without finding the back of the net and won't find the going any easier here. Take Serbia (6*). |
|||||||
06-05-22 | Astros -220 v. Royals | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
Run-Line Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston over Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Astros got pummelled by the Royals yesterday, suffering a 6-0 defeat. I expect them to bounce right back on Sunday as they send Framber Valdez to the hill. Valdez is coming off a complete game victory in Oakland last time out. Incredibly by today's pitching standards, Valdez has worked at least seven innings in four straight starts. The Astros have won each of his last five trips to the hill. He'll be pitching on a full five days' rest here and noting that he owns a 1.40 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in six road starts this season, I expect him to fare well in this one. On the other side, Jon Heasley has lasted six innings just once in seven career big league starts. He hasn't been able to keep runners off the bases this season, issuing 16 walks and giving up 18 hits in just 19 1/3 innings. He's not a strikeout pitcher either, having topped out at five in his four outings this season. Add in the fact that the Royals bullpen owns a 5.36 ERA and 1.51 WHIP at home this season and this has all the makings of a rout. Take Houston -1.5 (10*). |
|||||||
06-05-22 | Twins v. Blue Jays UNDER 8 | 8-6 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Toronto at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. We've seen a pair of wild, high-scoring games to open this series but I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon. We have a sneaky-good starting pitching matchup with Devin Smeltzer going for the Twins against Kevin Gausman of the Jays. Smeltzer has done nothing but impress in four big league starts this season, recording a 1.50 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. Since getting tagged for four home runs in a start against Cleveland back in June 2019, he hasn't allowed another home run in his last nine MLB starts. He has also issued only four walks in 24 innings of work this season. Kevin Gausman has worked 26 1/3 innings in day games this season and has yet to allow a single home run across those four starts. While he's struggled in the past against the Twins, he hasn't faced them since 2018 when I think we can all agree he was a much different pitcher just getting his career started with the Orioles. While the Jays bullpen hasn't been great lately, I'm not as concerned about that relief corps against a depleted Twins lineup. On the flip side, the Twins 'pen has posted a collective 3.24 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over its last seven games. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-04-22 | Avalanche v. Oilers UNDER 7 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Edmonton at 8 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the series shifts to Edmonton on Saturday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-7 with the Oilers having allowed 3+ goals in three consecutive games this season, as is the case here and also 9-3 when coming off back-to-back games giving up 4+ goals - also the situation tonight. In fact, the 'under' is a long-term 134-102 with Edmonton coming off consecutive contests in which it allowed 4+ goals. While the Avalanche have goaltending concerns with Darcy Kuemper potentially sidelined again, they have to feel pretty good about what backup Pavel Francouz gave them in Game 2, posting a shutout after the Oilers scored six times in Game 1. Despite dropping a 4-0 decision, Oilers goaltender Mike Smith held up far better in Game 2 than he did in the series-opener as he was once again peppered with 40 shots. We can anticipate Edmonton throwing everything it has at Colorado defensively in this one. You would have to go back four meetings here in Edmonton to find the last time the Avs scored more than three goals in a game on this ice. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
06-04-22 | White Sox v. Rays -117 | 3-2 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Chicago at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Rays added to the White Sox woes with a 6-3 drubbing last night. Chicago has now dropped four games in a row while Tampa Bay checks in on a three-game winning streak. While the pitching matchup looks like a wash on paper, I'll give Drew Rasmussen the edge at home on Saturday. The Rays have quietly gone 8-2 in his 10 starts this season and he has posted a stellar 2.10 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in five home outings. While the White Sox will be getting their second look at Rasmussen this season, the Rays will also be seeing Chicago starter Dylan Cease for the second time. They'll be out for revenge after dropping a 3-2 decision against Cease and the White Sox in Chicago back in mid-April. Note that Cease's lone previous start here in St. Petersburg didn't go so well as he allowed four earned runs and lasted just five innings in a 4-2 defeat back in 2019. As far as the bullpens go, it's no contest in terms of recent form. The Rays 'pen has recorded five saves while blowing just one over their last seven games. Here at home Tampa's relief corps has posted a 2.81 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 11 saves converted and three blown. Meanwhile, the White Sox 'pen has posted a 5.27 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
|||||||
06-04-22 | Red Sox v. A's UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. Boston cruised to a 7-2 victory in the opener of this series last night, adding to the A's misery here in Oakland. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon as the Red Sox send Nick Pivetta to the hill against Paul Blackburn for the A's. After a rocky start to the season, Pivetta has gotten himself on a serious roll, allowing just six earned runs over 34 innings in his last five outings. He pitched here in Oakland last July 4th, striking out 10 over seven shutout innings of two-hit ball in a 1-0 Boston victory. Blackburn didn't make many mistakes last time out against Houston but he paid for the few he did, including a pair of home runs, allowing four earned runs on five hits over 6 2/3 innings in a 5-1 loss. In five daytime starts this season Blackburn has posted a 2.51 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, covering a span of 28 2/3 innings. He'll be facing the Red Sox for the first time in his career today. While both bullpens have struggled lately I do believe both relief corps' are better than their recent numbers indicate. We can also take solace in the fact that the A's average a woeful 2.6 runs per game at home while it's generally been a case of feast-or-famine for the Red Sox offense and after scoring exactly seven runs in consecutive games, I expect them to cool off against a solid pitcher in Blackburn on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
06-04-22 | England v. Hungary UNDER 2.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Hungary and England at 12 noon et on Saturday. While many of the early Nations League affairs have featured goals aplenty (and we've taken full advantage), I don't expect anything of that sort as England challenges Hungary on Saturday. The Three Lions have a number of injury doubts heading into this one. It does come in riding a nine-match undefeated streak, however, a run that has a good chance of remaining intact here. England's main focus at this point is on rounding into form ahead of November's World Cup in Qatar. While England has scored a whopping 20 goals across its last three matches, 10 of those came in a rout of San Marino last November. It obviously faces a much different challenge here. Hungary has seen four of its last six contests stay 'under' 2.5 total goals including a 1-1 draw against England last October. You would have to go back three matches to find the last time the Hungarians scored more than once in a match as it mustered just one goal across two contests against Serbia and Northern Ireland back in March. Noting that Hungary has gone the last four meetings with England without recording a clean sheet, I would anticipate it focusing on keeping its shape defensively in this one and waiting for an opportunity for veteran striker Adam Szalai to counter. I'm just not sure there will be a wealth of those chances here. Take the under (6*). |
|||||||
06-03-22 | Wings v. Storm -5.5 | Top | 68-51 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Dallas at 10 pm et on Friday. Seattle hasn't fared particularly well from an ATS perspective as a favorite over the last couple of seasons but that's had a lot to do with the fact that we've generally seen inflated prices when it comes to the perennial contenders. That's not the case anymore, as evidenced by tonight's line - note that in two home games against Dallas last year Seattle was favored by 9 and 9.5 points. The Storm are in a fine spot here, rested and at home on the heels of four consecutive wins, however they went just 2-2 ATS over that stretch, also helping to keep this line in check. Additionally, they'll be without Sue Bird once again due to Covid protocols on Friday. She's struggled in the early going this season anyway, in what is likely to be her WNBA swan song season. Dallas checks in off consecutive losses against Connecticut and Los Angeles. The Wings most recent setback was particularly concerning as they got off 74 field goal attempts - knocking down 33 of them - while holding the Sparks to just 56 FG attempts yet still fell short. The Wings have now allowed 31, 29, 29, 27, 34 and 36 made field goals in their six road games this season. Here, we'll note that Seattle is a long-term 103-75 ATS when coming off four or five ATS losses in their last six games, as is the case here. Take Seattle (10*). |
|||||||
06-03-22 | Braves v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. We saw a wild, high-scoring slugfest between these two teams last night. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday. Max Fried continues to lead the Braves rotation, posting incredibly consistent numbers over the last few seasons. He checks in with a 2.37 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in three road starts this season. While pitching at Coors Field is a challenge, I'm confident he'll be up for it, noting that he's lasted at least into the sixth inning in all 10 of his starts this season. Rockies starter Chad Kuhl is underrated to be sure. He has held up well at hitter-friendly Coors Field this season, recording a 1.04 WHIP in 16 1/3 innings of work. Eight of his nine starts this season have totalled eight runs or less. Note that Kuhl faced the Braves once last season as a member of the Pirates and the result was a 2-1 victory as he gave up just one earned run over six innings. The Rockies bullpen will always be a concern when it comes to playing 'unders' but I believe we're working with a high enough total that dealing with their relief corps is worth the risk. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
06-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Most are looking to play the 'under' in this matchup between two lowly National League squads, pushing the total down from 8.0 to 7.5. I believe it will prove too low. We have a middle-of-the-road starting pitching matchup between Merrill Kelly and J.T. Brubaker. Kelly owns a 4.55 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in six nighttime starts this season and has really struggled lately, recording a ridiculous 10.50 ERA and 2.17 WHIP over his last three outings. J.T. Brubaker hasn't allowed a single earned run over his last two starts but let's not get too excited. In those two starts he worked 11 2/3 innings allowing 11 hits while issuing four walks and striking out only seven. They were favorable matchups to be sure, at home against the Rockies (who struggle mightily on the road) and at pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego. Even if the starters don't struggle in this one, the bullpens are capable of blowing up in an instant. The D'Backs 'pen has posted a 5.31 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road this season. The Buccos relief corps owns a collective 4.15 ERA and 1.36 WHIP at home, converting only five saves while blowing four. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
06-03-22 | Denmark v. France OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 110 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Soccer Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between France and Denmark at 2:45 pm et on Friday. When these two squads last met in 2018 they played to a 0-0 draw. I expect nothing of the sort on Friday, however, as they tangle in their Nations League opener. Of course, the stakes aren't nearly as high in this tournament as they are in the Euros or World Cup - not even close. So perhaps it's not surprising that yesterday's opening day slate of Nations League contests was fairly high-scoring. I expect more of the same here. France comes in riding a seven-match winning streak across all competitions. You would have to go back 10 matches to find its last defeat. Five of its last six contests have found their way 'over' 2.5 total goals. Likewise, Denmark has seen five of its last seven matches go 'over' 2.5 goals. Denmark is certainly no pushover - it sits 11th in the FIFA rankings and enters this contest having scored first in eight of its last 10 trips to the pitch. With key defender Simon Kjaer expected to miss this contest, the Danes may be a little think at the back and France is certainly capable of exposing any sort of weakness in that area of the field with Mbappe and Benzema capable of striking at any given moment. France can be vulnerable at the back-end as well, noting that just going back to last September you'll find the likes of Ivory Coast and Bosnia & Herzegovina have managed to find the back of the net against Les Bleus. We'll count on some offensive fireworks here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
06-03-22 | Netherlands v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Belgium and the Netherlands at 2:45 pm et on Friday. With goalkeeper Thibault Courtois officially ruled out due to a groin issue after leading Real Madrid to a Champions League title last Saturday, Belgium could prove vulnerable at the back-end (key defender Jason Denayer is also expected to miss). The Netherlands obviously boasts no shortage of attacking prowess and I'm confident both sides will be eager to push the pace here (these Nations League matches have a tendency to feature more offense than defense with far less on the line compared to World Cup and Euro tournaments for example). Note that Belgium has seen five of its last six matches go 'over' 2.5 goals while the Netherlands is undefeated across its last nine contests and has been 'first to score' in seven of its last eight (the same goes for Belgium). Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
06-03-22 | Cardinals +105 v. Cubs | Top | 14-5 | Win | 105 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Friday. The Cubs got the better of the Cardinals in the opener of this series last night but I think they'll be in tough trying to make it two in a row against their division rivals on Friday. Marcus Stroman will make his third consecutive start on four days' rest after matching a season-high going seven innings in his last outing. He's struggled mightily in three home starts this season, posting a 6.28 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. The Cardinals saw him twice last season and had some success, scoring six runs, four of them earned, in 11 innings - both victories. Miles Mikolas struggled in his most recent start for St. Louis but his overall numbers are terrific this season. He's allowed a single earned run or less in five of his last six starts against Chicago and the Cards have won six of his nine career outings in this matchup. The bullpen matchup is virtually a wash overall this season but not recently as the Cubs relief corps has been awful over the last week or so, entering last night's contest sporting a 6.96 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over their last seven games. Take St. Louis (10*). |
|||||||
06-02-22 | Mets v. Dodgers -155 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over New York at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. Sometimes a series just doesn't go the way you planned and that was certainly the case for the Dodgers against the Pirates as they were inexplicably swept, culminating with an 8-4 loss last night. Look for the Boys in Blue to bounce right back on Thursday as they welcome the red hot Mets to Chavez Ravine. New York has won six straight games entering this series, with all six victories coming at home - consecutive sweeps of the Phillies and Nationals. Taijuan Walker will start for New York on Thursday. He's shown a tremendous day-night dichotomy this season. In two daytime outings, spanning 14 innings, he hasn't allowed a single earned run. Nighttime outings have been a different story, however, as he's been tagged for 11 earned runs on 24 hits in just 21 innings of work. Tony Gonsolin will counter for Los Angeles. Forget the likes of Julio Urias, Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw (who has been on the shelf for a while now), Gonsolin has arguably been the Dodgers best starter this season. He's been particularly sharp here at home, posting a 1.29 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in four starts, covering 21 innings of work. Look for him to help Los Angeles snap its losing skid here. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
06-02-22 | Sun +5 v. Aces | 97-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Connecticut plus the points over Las Vegas at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Sun hung with the Aces for four quarters two nights ago but simply couldn't knock down enough shots to prevail (or cover), falling by eight points. Credit Connecticut for getting off 78 field goal attempts in that contest. I expect them to fare better offensively on Thursday as they look to salvage a split here in Sin City. The Aces held a 20-12 edge in terms of free throw attempts, making good on 10 more shots from the charity stripe. The Sun are generally a disciplined defensive team and I expect them to bounce back in that regard here on Thursday. Things can go south in a hurry for Connecticut considering this is the front-end of a back-to-back set against Las Vegas and Phoenix (both on the road). I'm confident we'll see the Sun rise to the occasion. Take Connecticut (8*). |
|||||||
06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Boston at 9 pm et on Thursday. I get the feeling this might be the best price we get to back the Warriors at home all series. We just won with Boston in Game 7 of its Eastern Conference Finals showdown against Miami. Of course, the Celtics struggled to put the Heat away late in the fourth quarter of that contest. We saw the C's and Warriors split two regular season matchups with each team winning on the other's home court. I expect a different story to unfold in the opener of this series, however. Note that Boston was held to 36 or fewer made field goals in six of seven games against Miami last round. It had a tough enough time just getting shots off, attempting fewer than 80 field goals in five of the seven contests. The Warriors on the other hand have been locked-in offensively for months now. They enter this series having knocked down 40+ field goals in 16 of their last 21 games. On the flip side, they just held Dallas to 37 or fewer made field goals in four of five games in the Western Conference Finals. After an up-tempo series against the Grizzlies, they limited the Mavericks to 86 or fewer FG attempts in all five games last round. Regardless how this series plays out pace-wise, I expect Golden State to be comfortable. Here, we'll note that the Warriors are 9-1 ATS when playing at home seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here after dropping a lopsided 110-88 affair here in mid-March, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 13.3 points in that situation. Take Golden State (10*). |
|||||||
06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors OVER 210.5 | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 84 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Golden State at 9 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Celtics Eastern Conference Finals Game 7 win over the Heat, getting there despite the total being set in the 190's. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way as I expect this series between the C's and Warriors to play out much differently. The Celtics finally got off 80+ field goal attempts in Game 7 - 85 in fact - after being held under that number in four straight games against Miami. I'm sure the C's realize that they'll need to step up their offensive considerably against the Warriors as opposed to the banged-up Heat they faced last round. Golden State has incredibly knocked down 40+ field goals in 16 of its last 21 games. While the Warriors last series against Dallas was played at a relatively slow-pace (in stark contrast to their second round series against Memphis), the 'over' still managed to cash in three of five games. Here, we're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw at any point in that series against the Mavs. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 36-22 with the Celtics checking in as an underdog over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 224.7 points. The 'over' is also a long-term 117-80 with Golden State seeking revenge for a loss by 20+ points against an opponent, as is the case here after Boston rolled to a 110-88 win here in San Francisco back in mid-March. Take the over (9*). |
|||||||
06-02-22 | Oilers v. Avalanche UNDER 7 | 0-4 | Win | 129 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Colorado at 8 pm et on Thursday. Recency bias certainly plays a major factor when it comes to the playoffs, whether it be the NBA or the NHL. In this case, we just saw a wild, high-scoring affair that featured a whopping 14 goals in Game 1 and not only that, but the Avs lost starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper to an injury. We were unfortunately on the 'under' in that contest - not a wise call by any means - but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here with 7's offering a plus-money return and even some 7.5's popping up at some books. Note that the 'under' is 17-10 with the Oilers playing on the road following a game that totalled 7+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of just 6.4 goals. The 'under' is also 21-12 with Edmonton coming off consecutive games in which it allowed 3+ goals, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 6.2 goals. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
06-02-22 | Oilers +1.5 v. Avalanche | 0-4 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton +1.5 goals over Colorado at 8 pm et on Thursday. As I've mentioned time and time again during these playoffs, long winning streaks simply aren't commonplace in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. So it didn't come as a surprise that we saw Edmonton drop Game 1 of this series as it came in riding a four-game winning streak. Here, I look for the Oilers to answer back, noting they've gone 9-2 when playing on the road off a road loss by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals on average in that situation. Perhaps even better still, they're 33-13 after allowing 5+ goals in their previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that spot. After their dominant Game 1 performance, it's easy to forget that the Avalanche didn't win by more than a single goal in any of their three regular season meetings with the Oilers. Take Edmonton +1.5 goals (8*). |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.