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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-19-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 0-9 | Loss | -113 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Chase Field on Wednesday night. Cole Hamels will get the nod for the Cubs. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven of his last eight starts. Last time out he gave up just two earned runs over 6 2/3 innings of work against the Reds. Note that the 'under' has gone 7-1 over his last eight outings. Robbie Ray will counter for Arizona. He has allowed just six earned runs over his last five starts, spanning 28 innings pitched. The 'under' has cashed in four of those five contests. Ray hasn't been at his best here at home this season but I prefer to look at his current form, which shows a 2.04 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over his last three starts. Take the under (10*). |
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09-19-18 | Giants v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 4-8 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and San Diego at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Petco Park on Wednesday night. Chris Stratton will take the ball for the Giants. He's coming off a complete game shutout and has worked at least six innings in four of his last five starts. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last four outings. While he did throw 114 pitches in his last start, the last time he threw more than 100 pitches he came back and gave up just two earned runs on three hits over six innings in his next outing. Robbie Erlin will counter for San Diego. He is coming off a fine start, having allowed just one earned run on six hits over 5 1/3 innings against the Rangers, needing only 72 pitches to get through that outing. The 'under' has cashed in four of his last six starts overall. Erlin owns a 2.80 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 54 2/3 innings pitched at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-19-18 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Atlanta at 12:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Wednesday afternoon. Jack Flaherty will take the ball for the Cardinals. He has been lights out in afternoon action this season, posting a 2.14 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Note also that Flaherty has recorded a 2.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the road this season. He has allowed one earned run or less in five of his last six starts overall. Touki Toussaint will counter for Atlanta. The Braves clearly have faith in their rookie starter giving him the nod in this crucial late season matchup. Toussaint has certainly held his own in three starts this season, working at least into the sixth inning in two of three outings, while needing only 64 pitches to go 4 2/3 innings against the Red Sox in his other start. In two home starts, Toussaint has allowed only four earned runs on six hits over 10 2/3 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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09-18-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Dodgers Stadium on Tuesday night. Kyle Freeland will take the ball for the Rockies. He checks in having worked at least six innings in eight straight starts. Last time out he worked into the seventh inning and needed only 82 pitches to do so. He hasn't thrown more than 100 pitches in any of his last four outings. Los Angeles will turn to its ace, Clayton Kershaw. He's coming off a bit of an un-Kershaw-like performance last time out but with that being said, he still held his own, giving up just three earned runs over six innings against the Cardinals. He needed just 92 pitches to get through those six frames. Note that Kershaw owns a 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-18-18 | Giants v. Padres UNDER 7 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Petco Park on Tuesday night. Derek Holland has been an 'under' machine on the road this season, posting a 3-13-1 o/u mark. There's been no real discernible difference between his performance at home and on the road as he's quite simply enjoyed a renaissance year for the Giants. Note that Holland has worked at least six innings in each of his last four outings. Joey Lucchesi will counter for the Padres. He was limited to five innings in his last two starts but needed only 74 and 86 pitches to get through those two outings. He'll be facing a Giants club that simply isn't scoring right now. Note that Lucchesi has allowed three earned runs or less in four straight starts. Take the under (10*). |
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09-18-18 | White Sox v. Indians UNDER 8 | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Progressive Field on Tuesday night. Carlos Rodon will take the ball for the White Sox. He has held his own on the road this season, posting a 3.45 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He's on quite a run of consistency right now, having worked at least into the sixth inning in 15 of his last 16 starts overall. Corey Kluber will counter for Cleveland. Not surprisingly, he has been outstanding at home this season, recording a 2.05 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Kluber did get lit up by the Rays last time out but prior to that had worked at least into the sixth inning in eight straight outings, giving up one earned run or less in five of those starts. Take the under (10*). |
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09-17-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | 5-1 | Win | 105 | 25 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Chase Field on Monday night. The Cubs will hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks. He has worked just five innings in each of his last two starts but needed only 74 and 77 pitches to get through those two outings. The 'under' has gone 4-1 in his last five starts and he has given up two earned runs or less in all five of those starts. Patrick Corbin will counter for Arizona. He has worked at least six innings in each of his last two starts and has certainly been comfortable pitching here at home, posting a 3.14 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The last time Corbin faced the Cubs he gave up just one earned run on six hits in seven innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears UNDER 43 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Soldier Field on Monday night. Both of these teams were involved in relatively high-scoring affairs last week, with the 'over' going a perfect 2-0. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday night. The Seahawks got a big day from TE Will Dissly last week against Denver. That was about the only positive to come from the Seattle offense on that day. Keep in mind, the Bears have a stout defense that limited Packers TE Jimmy Graham to just two catches for eight yards last week. Seattle is in tough here without WR Doug Baldwin. This is a bottom-tier offense with a tremendous starting QB in Russell Wilson. I'm not sure he'll be able to do enough to help the Seahawks hang a crooked number on the board on Monday. On the flip side, it's just too early in the Matt Nagy era for the Bears to really unleash their offense. We saw them sputter in the second half against the Packers last Sunday and I don't expect a sudden explosion here. The Seahawks are undermanned defensively but they'll show up on Monday night. Take the under (10*). |
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09-17-18 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 11-6 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Monday night. Miles Mikolas will take the ball for the Cardinals. He has worked at least six innings in seven of his last nine starts. Last time out he gave up just one earned run on five hits over seven innings. Mike Foltynewicz will counter for Atlanta. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight consecutive starts. Over his last two outings he has allowed just two earned runs on eight hits over 15 innings of work. Note that the 'under' has gone 6-3 in his last nine trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). |
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09-17-18 | Royals v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at PNC Park on Monday night. Brad Keller will take the ball for the Royals. He has worked at least seven innings in three straight starts, giving up just four earned runs in 22 innings pitched over that stretch. The 'under' is 4-1-2 in his last seven starts overall. Joe Musgrove will counter for Pittsburgh. He has worked at least six innings in three straight starts. Musgrove hasn't thrown more than 100 pitches in a start since way back on July 15th. The 'under' is 5-3 in his last eight starts overall. Musgrove's 10 home starts have averaged just 7.4 total runs this season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Raiders v. Broncos -6 | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Oakland at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Are the Raiders as bad as they looked in the final three quarters of Monday’s blowout loss to the Rams? In a word, yes. While they’ll have no problem getting up for this matchup with the division-rival Broncos I don’t believe they’ll be able to hang around for four quarters. The Broncos have long been a tremendous ‘play-on’ team at home in September and while they didn’t earn the ATS cover last week against Seattle, they did show me enough to believe they’re worth a play again here against the Raiders. It was a pretty sloppy performance from Broncos QB Case Keenum all things considered. With that being said, he still managed to spread the football around and prove that he’s developed some nice chemistry with his wide receivers, Emmanuel Sanders in particular. I look for the Broncos defense to play even better than it did a week ago, and the same goes for the Denver ground attack on offense. To be honest, I’m not sure where the Raiders go from here. Their offense looks broken (TE Jared Cook was the only bright spot on Monday night) and their defense is seriously downgraded after trading away Khalil Mack. This number could be even higher in favor of the Broncos in my opinion. Take Denver (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Lions v. 49ers OVER 48 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Detroit and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Santa Clara on Sunday afternoon. I leaned hard to the ‘under’ in the 49ers season-opener in Minnesota last week but ultimately decided to lay off. That one ended up finishing pretty close to the number despite a low-scoring first half, and the final total certainly could have been much higher were it not for missed opportunities by both sides. Here, I’m anticipating a bit of a shootout. The Lions couldn’t have looked any worse than they did in Monday’s blowout loss to the Jets. I do expect a bounce-back of sorts here, at least from the offense. Matt Stafford is one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in football for a reason. Despite his awful performance on Monday, he’ll come back airing it out against a vulnerable 49ers defense on Sunday. The same goes for 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo. He was good but not great but was also facing an elite Vikings defense, on the road no less, in last week’s season-opener. Expect to see him do a better job of finishing drives against the Lions awful defense in this matchup. Outside of Darius Slay the Detroit secondary is among the worst in the league. The ‘Niners should have little trouble taking advantage. Take the over (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Cardinals v. Rams -13 | 0-34 | Win | 100 | 32 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I had just two regrets following Week 1 of the NFL season and one of them was not laying the points with the Rams on Monday night. As the betting public piled on with the Rams and the Raider-bashing reached monumental levels I really did believe there may have been a chance we were missing something with Los Angeles. That wasn’t the case as the Rams absolutely obliterated the Raiders following a sluggish first half. Now L.A. gets another very winnable matchup at home against another team that looks to be out of answers less than two weeks into the season in the Arizona Cardinals. There was a time when the Cards owned one of the strongest home field edges in football but those days are gone. It sounds like they’re going to give QB Sam Bradford another go this Sunday and I don’t expect that decision to end well. Even with a healthy David Johnson in the backfield Arizona was unable to get anything going in a shutout loss against the Redskins last week. Now the Cards face an even tougher challenge, on the road no less. The Rams certainly aren’t known to hold anything back when it comes to calling offensive plays. I expect to see them put their foot on the gas for four quarters against a division opponent here. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Twins v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | 9-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 2:15 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' at Kauffman Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Kyle Gibson will take the ball for the Twins. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in five of his last six starts. Over his last two outings, Gibson has allowed just three earned runs on eight hits over 12 2/3 innings of work. He has been steady on the road this season, posting a 3.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Jakob Junis will counter for Kansas City. He has quietly rounded into form lately, allowing only 11 earned runs over his last seven starts, spanning 46 innings pitched. Junis has worked at least into the sixth inning in six straight outings, and has gone at least seven frames in each of his last three starts. Take the under (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Diamondbacks v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Houston at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' at Minute Maid Park on Sunday afternoon. Zack Greinke will take the ball for the D'Backs. He has been the picture of consistency this season, including on the road, where he has posted a 3.78 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Note that Greinke has worked at least into the sixth inning in 11 consecutive outings. Of course, Astros ace Justin Verlander is capable of matching Greinke pitch for pitch. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in six straight starts. Over his last two outings he has allowed just three earned runs on nine hits over 14 innings of work, striking out 18 and walking only three along the way. Take the under (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 43.5 | Top | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Miami and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in the Jets season-opening win in Detroit (we weren’t close with that play) but won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as New York returns home to host the Dolphins this week. Everyone is singing Sam Darnold’s praises but he will face a much tougher test here than he did against the Lions defense, which was an absolute joke on Monday night. Not only that but Darnold will be working on a short week of preparation following the Monday nighter. Expect another solid but perhaps not spectacular game from the rookie QB. Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill did a nice job of managing the game against the Titans last Sunday and will have to play smart again this week as he faces an opportunistic Jets defense. Don’t count on Tannehill airing it out early and often in this contest. I would count on Miami serving the Jets with a heavy dose of their RB tandem in Kenyon Drake and Frank Gore in an effort to control time of possession. This total is actually a couple of points higher than it should be in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Texans -2.5 v. Titans | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams enter Week 2 with winless records but it’s the Texans that have a lot more upside moving forward. Houston ran into a really tough opening week matchup, facing the Patriots on the road in a revenge situation (for New England) after upsetting them in Foxborough last season. Not surprisingly, the Texans came up empty this time around with the Pats taking away their best weapons in DeShaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins. The Titans will do no such thing this week as they limp into this matchup following a storm-delayed loss in Miami last Sunday. Tennessee is dealing with a number of key injuries and is in serious danger of this season spinning away from it even if we are only into the second week. An injury to Marcus Mariota causes a serious downgrade to this offense as a whole, especially after the Titans got very little production from their running game against a middle of the road Dolphins defense last week. There’s really no intimidation factor at play here. The Texans have the veterans on board to right the ship, especially on the defensive side of the football. Take Houston (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Chiefs v. Steelers -4.5 | Top | 42-37 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
NFL AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Kansas City at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Steelers avoided complete embarrassment thanks to a blocked field goal at the end of overtime in Cleveland last Sunday but there’s no question it was an ugly start to the campaign for the Black and Gold. I have no doubt that we’ll see a much sharper effort from the Steelers, on offense in particular, as they host the Chiefs on Sunday. We won with Kansas City last week in Los Angeles but we were fortunate to cash that ticket as the Chargers were able to march the ball up and down the field against what certainly appeared to be a weak Chiefs defense. I’m not sure we’ll see Kansas City right the ship on that side of the football traveling across the country to face the Steelers in their second straight road game to open the season. You have to think heading into this two-game jaunt that the Chiefs would have been more than pleased to earn a 1-1 split. While they’d undoubtedly like to earn the 2-0 sweep now that they have the first one in their back pocket, I simply feel that the Steelers will be the hungrier squad on Sunday afternoon. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Eagles -3 v. Bucs | 21-27 | Loss | -114 | 29 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Eagles in last week’s season-opener against Atlanta although that winning ticket certainly didn’t come easy. I look for Philadelphia to have an easier time of it this Sunday as they head south to Tampa to take on the surprisingly 1-0 Bucs. Philadelphia didn’t get much at all from QB Nick Foles against the Falcons but perhaps that was to be expected after he was banged up in the preseason. While I’m not convinced Foles bounces back in a big way here, I do believe the Eagles have enough on offense, and a stout enough defense to outlast the Bucs. Tampa Bay turned a lot of heads by upsetting the Saints in New Orleans last Sunday. I don’t think there’s any question that the Saints overlooked the Bucs in that matchup. Perhaps ‘overlooked’ is not the proper term, but they certainly didn’t bring the proper level of compete – particularly on the defensive side of the football. There will be no catching the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles off guard here. They know what the Bucs are capable of after last week’s 48-point explosion. That’s an effort that just isn’t likely to be repeated. In a much lower-scoring affair than we saw with Tampa Bay last Sunday, I’ll lay the short number with Philadelphia. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Browns v. Saints -9 | 18-21 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. Let’s face it; Week 1 didn’t go well for the Saints, who lost as a big favorite, at home against a division opponent no less. I fully expect to see them bounce back here in Week 2 as they draw a favorable matchup with the Browns. Cleveland battled to a 21-21 tie with the Steelers last Sunday. Pittsburgh essentially handed that game to the Browns on a silver platter late in the fourth quarter and into overtime but Cleveland was unable to claim victory. Tyrod Taylor certainly didn’t look 100% healthy and also somewhat improperly utilized in the offense. I’m not sure we’ll see much change in that regard this week and the Saints defense will certainly be licking its chops after getting caught flat-footed by an aggressive Bucs offense last week. The New Orleans offense had little trouble shredding Tampa Bay last Sunday and I would expect more of the same against Cleveland. RB Mark Ingram’s absence didn’t have much of an impact as Alvin Kamara picked up the slack and then some with a monster performance. Look for Drew Brees to utilize TE Benjamin Watson against a vulnerable Browns defense this week. And of course the Saints wide receiving corps is as explosive as it gets. This has all the makings of a rout. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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09-15-18 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and San Francisco at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at AT&T Park on Saturday night. German Marquez will take the ball for the Rockies. He's been terrific on the road this season, posting a 2.83 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. The 'under' has gone 9-3-2 in his 14 road starts. Marquez brings excellent form having worked at least six innings in nine consecutive starts. Madison Bumgarner will counter for San Francisco. He has labored through his last two outings but has still worked at least six innings in six of his last seven starts overall. Note that Bumgarner's last two starts have come on the road. Here at home he owns a sparkling 1.49 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | Ohio State v. TCU UNDER 60 | 40-28 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Ohio State and TCU at 8 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in this big early season showdown between the Buckeyes and Horned Frogs on Saturday night. Ohio State has faced no resistance in its first two games, rolling to home wins over Oregon State and Rutgers. But now the Buckeyes head to a neutral site (AT&T Stadium in Arlington) to face a much tougher opponent in TCU. The Horned Frogs have given up just 19 points through their first two games this season, albeit against two weak opponents in Southern and SMU. Last week, TCU got caught flat-footed on SMU’s opening drive and gave up a 51-yard touchdown run. But that was basically it as it tightened things up and didn’t let the Mustangs find the end zone again. Similarly, the Horned Frogs allowed a 55-yard touchdown pass against Southern in its opener. Look for TCU to really guard against giving up those big TD plays against an elite Ohio State offense this week. On the flip side, the Horned Frogs didn’t score an offensive touchdown until nearly midway through the second quarter against an awful SMU defense last Friday night. They had two defensive and special teams touchdowns in that contest, something you certainly can’t bank on seeing against a fundamentally-sound Ohio State squad. Most are calling for a shootout here, I’m just not sure we’ll see it play out that way on the field. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | New Mexico v. New Mexico State UNDER 58 | Top | 42-25 | Loss | -107 | 47 h 22 m | Show |
NCAAF Rivalry Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between New Mexico and New Mexico State at 8 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring game between these two rivals last season with New Mexico State prevailing by a 30-28 score. I believe it will be a struggle to get to that total in this year’s meeting, however. New Mexico opened the season with a wild 62-30 win over Incarnate Word, a cupcake matchup to open the season that the Lobos took full advantage of. They actually held their own last week as well, despite facing one of the best teams in the country in Wisconsin on the road. I like the way the Lobos held up defensively in that one early on, not giving up a touchdown until the final three minutes of the first half. The question is whether New Mexico will suffer from any lingering effects after facing a big, physical football team like Wisconsin. The good news is the Lobos will be going up against a New Mexico State offense that is still trying to find its way even as it plays its fourth game of the season on Saturday. Because of a first-year starter at quarterback and issues on the offensive line, the Aggies have really had to scale back the offense and I can’t see them really opening things up, or finding a great deal of success against a familiar opponent in New Mexico this week. The Lobos did gain a bit of traction running the football in a blowout loss to Utah State last Saturday and will aim to control the football and the clock again here. Defensively, the Aggies are dealing with some key injuries but on a positive note, didn’t give up an offensive touchdown against Utah State until the final six minutes of the first half last week. After facing Minnesota and Utah State on the road in back-to-back weeks, I’m sure the Aggies will be happy to be back home and facing a rival opponent. In what should be a tightly-contested affair I’ll back the ‘under’. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | Houston v. Texas Tech OVER 69 | 49-63 | Win | 100 | 44 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Houston and Texas Tech at 4:15 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Houston’s rout of Arizona last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘over’ this week as the Cougars hit the road to face Texas Tech. Houston has now scored exactly 45 points in each of its first two games but let’s face it, those numbers could have easily been higher. In their opener, the Cougars were very slow out of the gates, possibly thinking the game would be a gimme against an overmatched Rice squad. However, they were able to really turn it on in the second half, scoring four unanswered touchdowns to put the game away. We saw plenty of carry-over from that second half performance last week against Arizona as Houston scored three first quarter touchdowns and never looked back in a 45-18 victory. Here, I think the Cougars know they’re going to be in for a shootout and they certainly have the personnel in place to hang around for four quarters. Texas Tech didn’t look good in a season-opening 47-27 loss to Ole Miss with an early special teams touchdown really demoralizing the team. The Red Raiders certainly ‘got right’ last week though, scoring six first half touchdowns en route to a 77-0 rout of Lamar. Texas Tech can do it all on offense and should be able to do what Arizona couldn’t do last week and take advantage of an average Houston defense. This total has been kept in check perhaps because it’s early in the season and both teams still have a lot to prove. I can’t see this one playing out any other way than a shootout on Saturday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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09-15-18 | South Florida v. Illinois UNDER 59 | 25-19 | Win | 100 | 43 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between South Florida and Illinois at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Champaign on Saturday afternoon. South Florida is coming off a wild 49-38 victory over Georgia Tech last week. That game essentially turned on a pair of kick return touchdowns for the Bulls in the opening quarter. It’s worth noting that USF scored only one offensive touchdown in the first half of that game. It’s also notable that the Bulls didn’t give up a single score from the four-minute mark of the first quarter until nearly four minutes into the third quarter. Keep in mind, USF posted a 34-14 win over Elon in its season-opener and didn’t give up a touchdown until the final two minutes of the third quarter in that one. It will obviously face a tougher test here, although I don’t believe the Illinois offense is all that intimidating. The Illini are off to a 2-0 start, winning back-to-back home games against Kent State and Western Illinois. I will point out that they didn’t score a touchdown until nearly six minutes into the second half against Kent State and not until more than midway through the second quarter against Western Illinois. Should they get off to another slow start here I’m not sure they’ll be able to suddenly flip the switch against a more capable opponent in USF. Defensively the Illini have been ‘good enough’ so far this season but will certainly realize the importance of toughening up after the Bulls hung a crooked number on Georgia Tech last week. Simply put, I believe this number has been set too high. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | Vanderbilt v. Notre Dame UNDER 52 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 42 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Vanderbilt and Notre Dame at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Vanderbilt’s win over Nevada last Saturday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the Commodores hit the road to face the Irish in South Bend this week. Vandy has put up a whopping 76 points in posting back-to-back wins to open the campaign. However, this will be its toughest test to date by far, facing a Notre Dame defense that has near NFL-level talent at a number of key positions. I will point out that despite putting up 41 points last Saturday, Vandy didn’t score a touchdown or points of any kind until nearly three minutes into the second quarter. The Commodores got rolling from there, but that was largely due to an inept Nevada offense that turned the football over four times. Similarly in Week 1, Vandy scored just one offensive touchdown before getting its second midway through the third quarter. Notre Dame is still working out the kinks in its own offense, having scored 24 points in each of its first two victories over Michigan and Ball State. The Irish defense has certainly made up for any offensive inefficiencies, allowing only 33 points through two games. Last week against Ball State, the Irish didn’t allow a touchdown until three minutes into the fourth quarter. Perhaps even more notable, Notre Dame didn’t give up an offensive touchdown until the final three minutes of the fourth quarter, essentially playing prevent defense at that point, against Michigan back in Week 1. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | Georgia Tech v. Pittsburgh UNDER 55 | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 40 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. While I’m not anticipating a true defensive slugfest between these two storied programs on Saturday afternoon, I do think we’ll see enough long, extended drives to keep this one ‘under’ the inflated total. Georgia Tech has split its first two games and those two contests couldn’t have played out much differently. After the Yellow Jackets cruised to a 41-0 victory over Alcorn State in their opener they got absolutely ripped in a 49-38 loss at South Florida last Saturday. It’s imperative that the Yellow Jackets get their defense right in this contest before facing Clemson next week and I believe this is a favorable matchup for them to do just that. Keep in mind, Georgia Tech gave up a pair of kick return touchdowns in the first quarter against South Florida last week, which really turned that game on its head early on. Pitt has also split its first two games, defeating Albany by a 33-7 score before getting blown out by Penn State 51-6 last week. The Panthers aren’t as bad defensively as that final scoreline would seem to indicate. Note that they did hold the Nittany Lions to only one touchdown before giving up a second in the final 30 seconds of the first half. That was a 14-6 game at halftime before things got out of hand in the second half, turned by a Penn State punt return for a touchdown late in the third quarter. After that score, the Panthers wilted. I’m not expecting this game to ever get into blowout territory for either side and that should lend itself to a relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | Temple v. Maryland UNDER 55 | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 40 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Temple and Maryland at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in this early kickoff matchup on Saturday afternoon. Temple is coming off a fairly high-scoring affair against Buffalo last week, falling by a 36-29 score. Keep in mind, that was a 12-7 game at halftime before a wild second half and fourth quarter in particular. The Owls didn’t score a touchdown in that game until the final play of the first half, and that was against a middle of the road to below average Buffalo defense. The Temple defense didn’t hold up particularly well in that game but did limit the Bulls passing attack to just 26 completions on 45 attempts for 275 yards. Maryland is coming off back-to-back wins to open the campaign (we won with the Terps in Week 1 against Texas). Last week the Terps ran roughshod over Bowling Green, cruising to a 45-14 victory. I will point out, however that the Terps didn’t score a touchdown in that game until the final three minutes of the first half. On the flip side, Maryland held BGSU to only 143 passing yards and the Falcons leading rusher had just 44 yards on the ground. The Terps didn’t give up a single score in the second half of that game. This is a relatively high total but it’s unwarranted. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | Florida State v. Syracuse +3 | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 40 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Syracuse plus the points over Florida State at 12 noon et on Saturday. The value has certainly shifted when it comes to Florida State after back-to-back relatively ugly performances against Virginia Tech and Samford. The Seminoles split those two games, getting blown out by the Hokies before posting a ho-hum 10-point win over Samford at home last Saturday. In that victory over Samford, the ‘Noles actually trailed 14-0 halfway through the first quarter and entered the fourth quarter down 23-21. In fact, with under five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, the ‘Noles trailed by a 26-21 score and only stretched out their eventual winning margin with a pick six with 2:23 left in the game (after they had scored a touchdown to go ahead). While Florida State scuffs along, Syracuse continues to impress. The Orange are off to a 2-0 start and although there’s no reason to get too excited about wins over Western Michigan and Wagner, I believe this is a team that has a lot to build from entering this big step-up game against a perennial ACC powerhouse. I liked the tune-up Syracuse got last week as it scored five offensive touchdowns en route to a 45-point first half against Wagner. In short, the Orange did what they should against an overmatched FCS opponent. Look for Orange QB Eric Dungey to keep rolling in this matchup as the FSU defense has looked vulnerable. Take Syracuse (10*). |
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09-14-18 | Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in St. Louis on Friday night. Walker Buehler will get the nod for the Dodgers. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven of his last eight starts overall. Buehler has given up two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts as well. Jack Flaherty has been an impressive rookie for the Cardinals as well. He worked just five innings in each of his last two starts but prior to that had gone at least into the sixth inning in six straight outings. Flaherty owns a 2.88 ERA and 1.03 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-18 | Diamondbacks v. Astros UNDER 8 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Minute Maid Park on Friday night. Robbie Ray will take the ball for the D'Backs. He has given up two earned runs or less in four straight starts and just two earned runs on four hits over his last two outings, spanning 12 1/3 innings of work. The 'under' is 3-1 in his last four trips to the hill. Dallas Keuchel will counter for Houston. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight straight starts. Keuchel did get roughed up by the Red Sox last time out but prior to that had given up just five earned runs over his last three starts, spanning 19 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-18 | Nationals v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | 5-10 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Friday night. Max Scherzer will take the ball for the Nationals. He has worked at least seven innings in five of his last eight starts. Last time out he tossed a complete game against the Cubs. While he did throw 111 pitches in that one, I like the fact that he's had five full days off since. Kevin Gausman has been a nice acquisition for the Braves. He did labor through his last start against the D'Backs but prior to that had worked six innings in four of his last five outings. The only start over that stretch where he didn't last six innings was a five-inning outing in which he allowed just one hit and no earned runs. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-18 | Georgia State v. Memphis UNDER 59 | 22-59 | Loss | -112 | 81 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia State and Memphis at 7 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in this Friday night matchup in Memphis. Georgia State has split its first two games, winning a close one over Kennesaw State and losing in blowout fashion against N.C. State. Note that the Panthers didn't score their first touchdown (or points) of the game until the final minute of the first half against Kennesaw State. They got off to a much faster start against N.C. State, scoring on their first drive but then didn't find the end zone again. The bottom line is I expect Georgia State to have a tough time putting points on the board against the Tigers. On the flip side, Memphis absolutely throttled Mercer by a 66-14 score in its season-opener before falling 22-21 on the road against Navy in a physical contest last week. The Tigers offense has looked outstanding at times but got a little bogged down against the Midshipmen. Here, they'll simply be looking to bounce back from that setback, not necessarily aiming for style points. Off that battle against Navy, we could see a bit of a hangover effect in a game the Tigers should win with ease. I do like the fact that Georgia State allowed N.C. State to reach the end zone only three times in the first three quarters last week, and three of the Wolfpack's four touchdowns in the game were from two yards or less out. In other words, the Panthers did do a good job of limiting the long touchdown strikes, which they'll certainly need to protect against here in Memphis (Tigers RB Henderson had two big touchdown runs in the third quarter against Navy). I simply feel both teams will need to contribute to get this one over the lofty total, and I'm not convinced we see that here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-13-18 | Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | 9-7 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and St. Louis at 7:15 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in St. Louis on Thursday night. Clayton Kershaw will take the ball for the Dodgers. He has been the picture of consistency once again this season. He checks in having allowed two earned runs or less in nine straight starts. Kershaw has posted a 2.08 ERA and 0.96 WHIP on the road this season. Austin Gomber will counter for St. Louis. He has been lights out here at home this season, having recorded a 2.13 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Over his last three trips to the hill, Gomber has given up just six earned runs in 19 innings pitched. The 'under' is 4-2 in his last five outings. Take the under (10*). |
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09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest OVER 51 | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 56 h 8 m | Show |
NOTE START TIME: NCAAF ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston College and Wake Forest at 5:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in this ACC showdown on Thursday night. The 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 in the last eight meetings in this series but I believe that has been factored into this total. Boston College has gotten off to an incredible start having scored 117 points in rolling to back-to-back home wins over UMass and Holy Cross. Now the Eagles will face their first true test of the season on the road against conference opponent Wake Forest. In short, I expect the BC offense to keep rolling. Note that the Eagles have scored an incredible 82 points in the first half of their first two games this season. The difference is here on Thursday they likely won't be able to take their foot off the gas in the second half, and that certainly helps our cause with the 'over'. Wake Forest followed up a rather ho-hum 23-17 win over Tulane in its season-opener before scoring 51 points in a rout of Towson last Saturday. The Deacons did whatever they wanted on the ground against the Tigers in that one. They'll face more resistance here, but I still expect them to put some points on the board. Note that even in that ugly victory over Tulane, QB Sam Hartman threw for nearly 400 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The problem was a pair of key interceptions. He'll certainly need to do a better job of taking care of the football in this one, but I do believe he's capable of doing so in this step-up game. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 10 | 3-10 | Push | 0 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' at Coors Field on Thursday afternoon. D'Backs starter Clay Buchholz continues his incredible campaign, having posted a 1.73 ERA and 0.96 WHIP on the road this season. He has worked at least six innings in six of his last seven starts, and has seen the 'under' cash in five of his last six trips to the hill. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He has certainly held his own here at Coors Field, posting a 2.21 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The 'under' has gone 5-2 in his last seven starts and he has worked at least six innings in seven consecutive outings. Take the under (10*). |
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09-12-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 10 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Coors Field on Wednesday night. Patrick Corbin will take the ball for the D'Backs. He has worked at least six innings in nine of his last 10 trips to the hill. Over his last four outings, Corbin has allowed just five earned runs on 16 hits over 24 innings pitched. The last time he faced the Rockies here in Colorado he did labour a bit, but still gave up just two earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Jon Gray will counter for the Rockies. The 'under' has gone 9-4 in his 13 starts at home this season. He lasted only four innings against the Dodgers in his last start but gave up just two earned runs in an eventual 4-2 loss. Gray has worked at least into the sixth inning in nine of his last 10 starts overall. Take the under (10*). |
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09-12-18 | Padres v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Seattle at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Safeco Field on Wednesday night. Joey Lucchesi will take the ball for the Padres. He has quietly pitched well on the road this season, recording a 2.98 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 42 1/3 innings of work. He checks in having worked at least into the sixth inning in four of his last six starts overall. Last time out, Lucchesi lasted only five innings but needed only 75 pitches and gave up just two earned runs on three hits on the road against the D'Backs. He allowed just one earned run in 6 2/3 innings against the Mariners back in late August. Wade LeBlanc will counter for Seattle. He has worked at least six innings in three straight starts, giving up just one earned run on 13 hits over 19 innings pitched during that stretch. LeBlanc has been solid here at home this season, posting a 3.62 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The 'under' has gone 15-7-1 in his 23 starts this season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-12-18 | Braves v. Giants UNDER 8 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at AT&T Park on Wednesday afternoon. Anibal Sanchez will take the ball for the Braves. He has enjoyed an incredible bounce-back season and has been particularly sharp on the road, posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. In 33 1/3 innings of work in afternoon action, Sanchez has recorded an incredible 2.16 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. He did last only five innings last time out against Arizona but needed only 81 pitches to get through that outing. Derek Holland has enjoyed a nice bounce-back season of his own for the Giants. He has been solid at home this season, posting a 3.69 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. In 56 2/3 innings pitched in afternoon action he has recorded a 2.54 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with the 'under' cashing in seven of his 10 starts. Also note that he has worked at least six innings in three straight outings, allowing just four earned runs in 18 1/3 innings pitched over that stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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09-11-18 | Braves v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at AT&T Park on Tuesday night. Mike Foltynewicz will take the ball for the Braves. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last seven starts. He has allowed one earned run or less in five of his last six trips to the hill. Foltynewicz owns a stellar 2.71 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the road this season. Andrew Suarez will counter for San Francisco. He has worked at least six innings in three straight starts. He was rocked for three home runs last time out, but that was at Coors Field in Colorado. Expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday. Take the under (10*). |
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09-11-18 | A's v. Orioles UNDER 9 | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Camden Yards on Tuesday night. Mike Fiers will take the ball for the A's. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in five of his last six starts overall. Last time out he faced a tough test against the Yankees and held up extremely well, giving up just two earned runs on three hits over six innings of work. He has faced the Orioles once this season, allowing three earned runs on four hits over six innings. Alex Cobb will counter for Baltimore. He gave up just one earned run on four hits over six frames last time out. Cobb has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight consecutive outings. When he faced the A's back in May he allowed only one earned run over six innings. Take the under (10*). |
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09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders OVER 47.5 | 33-13 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 10:20 pm et on Monday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams in Week 2 of the preseason, as the Rams prevailed by a 19-15 score. Of course, we can throw that result out the window as Los Angeles sat its offensive stars throughout the preseason schedule. I'm expecting a wild, high-scoring contest on Monday night. Everyone is down on the Raiders right now. The Khalil Mack trade obviously has a lot to do with that. But even on offense, few are expecting much from Oakland. I believe that's precisely why the 'over' is a solid play tonight. The Raiders still boast plenty of talent on offense with QB Derek Carr, RB Marshawn Lynch and WR Amari Cooper. As far as I'm concerned all three of those players have a lot to prove this season and will see this showdown with the vaunted Rams defense as a really good opportunity to show that they're not going to be doormats this season. On the flip side, I'm not concerned at all about the Rams offensive starters not seeing game action in August. They'll be ready to go and in their second year under head coach Sean McVay's guidance I expect continued improvement and refinement in this offense. Take the over (10*). |
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09-10-18 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Kauffman Stadium on Monday night. Lucas Giolito will take the ball for the White Sox. He got rocked last time out but had been pitching well previously, having had worked at least six innings in four straight starts. He has still allowed three earned runs or less in four of his last five outings. He has given up two earned runs or less in four of five career starts against Kansas City. Jakob Junis will counter for the Royals. He has given up two earned runs or less in six straight starts, working at least into the sixth inning in each of his last five outings. Junis allowed just two earned runs over 5 1/3 innings in his last start against the White Sox. Take the under (10*). |
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09-10-18 | Yankees v. Twins UNDER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Target Field on Monday night. J.A. Happ will take the ball for the Yankees. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts. Last time out he gave up just one earned run on two hits over six innings against the A's, on the road no less. He has posted a 2.53 ERA and 1.07 WHIP on the road this season. Kyle Gibson will counter for the Twins. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts. Last time out in a tough matchup on the road against the Astros, Gibson allowed only two earned runs on four hits over seven innings. The 'under' has gone 9-6-1 in his 16 home starts this season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-10-18 | Jets v. Lions UNDER 45 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in the first half of Monday's NFL double-header in Detroit. The Jets won their preseason opener by a 17-0 score over Atlanta but followed it up with three straight losses, scoring a grand total of just 38 points in the process. Sam Darnold takes over at quarterback but I certainly don't expect the Jets to throw him right into the fire in his first career road start, on Monday Night Football no less. Look for a heavy dose of the Jets running game in this one as they count on a combination of that and solid defensive play to shoot for an opening week victory. The Lions put up 33 points in their 'dress rehearsal' game in Week 3 of the preseason but that had little to do with the Detroit starters, with QB Matt Stafford completing just 9-of-18 passes. I'm not all that high on this Lions offense, even with the addition of veteran RB LaGarrette Blount, who should alleviate some of their concerns on the ground. I actually believe it will be the Detroit defense that shines in this contest. Take the under (10*). |
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09-09-18 | Bears v. Packers -7 | 23-24 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I’ll lay the points with the Packers at Lambeau Field on Sunday night as they host the rival Bears, who many are expecting big things from this season. I’m not as high on the Bears as most. There’s been a lot of talk leading up to the season surrounding just how exciting this Chicago offense will be but time will tell whether it plays out that way on the field or not. For now, the Bears have a tough opening week matchup against a Packers squad that starts the season with a renewed sense of confidence and most importantly, a healthy and well-paid Aaron Rodgers. Yes, the Bears boast a terrific defense, one that got even stronger with the addition of Khalil Mack. But Mack is just getting acclimated with this group and I believe it will take some time for the unit to completely mesh. I like what the Packers bring to the table on both sides of the football. Some see the departure of WR Jordy Nelson as a bad thing but I actually believe it will prove to be a positive for Rodgers and the offense. The Pack still have a solid WR corps and while their backfield doesn’t have much in the way of star power, I think it will do enough to relieve some of the pressure on Rodgers. We’re being asked to lay a considerable number of points with the Packers but I actually believe the line could be even higher. There are still a lot of unknowns when it comes to the Bears and I think their best football will be played from late September on. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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09-09-18 | Seahawks v. Broncos -3 | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 28 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I’ll lay the points with the Broncos on Sunday afternoon as they welcome the Seahawks to open the 2018 season. You probably haven’t heard much about the Broncos leading into this season as the Chiefs and Chargers have grabbed most of the headlines in the AFC West. I believe Denver is an excellent sleeper pick to win the division, but it needs to start here in September. Sure, there are some expected growing pains on offense with Case Keenum taking over at quarterback but I believe he’s more than capable of playing well, if not carrying the team. Here’s a guy that almost certainly has a big chip on his shoulder after being allowed to walk away from the Vikings in the offseason after showing so much promise in Minnesota last year. The defense is the real star of the show in Denver and that unit draws a favorable matchup here with the Seahawks at less than 100% on offense. QB Russell Wilson will make plenty of plays with his arm and his feet but his supporting cast seems to be getting weaker with each passing year. Meanwhile, the Seahawks defense is in a bit of turmoil due to the Earl Thomas situation and in transition with the departure of Richard Sherman in the offseason. There are simply too many question marks for me to support the Seahawks here, and too much upside to ignore with the Broncos. Take Denver (10*). |
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09-09-18 | Braves v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 9-5 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Arizona at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' at Chase Field on Sunday afternoon after just missing the mark with the same play here last night. Touki Toussaint will take the ball for the Braves. He pitched well in a spot start in August, allowing just one earned run on two hits over six innings against the Marlins. After getting called up again last week, he worked 4 2/3 innings against the Red Sox, and hung tough, giving up three earned runs on four hits - needing only 64 pitches to do so. Robbie Ray will counter for the D'Backs. He is coming off a terrific outing against the Padres, giving up only two hits over 6 1/3 scoreless frames. Over his last two starts he has given up just six hits and one earned run in 11 2/3 innings. Note that the 'under' has cashed in his last three trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). |
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09-09-18 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Chargers | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Chiefs on Sunday as they open the 2018 season with an AFC West showdown with the Chargers. Los Angeles is receiving plenty of hype entering the new season with some even picking it to reach the Super Bowl. I'm not nearly as high on the Chargers. The Chiefs actually haven't lost a game to the rival Chargers since way back in 2013. I don't believe this is the Kansas City team to end that streak. I see the Chiefs as a team with a lot of upside entering the new season. QB Pat Mahomes may be a first-year starter but he certainly played like a veteran in the preseason and gained a lot of knowledge working behind a true pro in Alex Smith last year. Some believe that RB Kareem Hunt was a one-year wonder, but I'm confident that he'll give the Chiefs a lot out of the backfield once again this season. Meanwhile, WR Tyreek Hill has been getting better with each passing season and certainly looked in sync with Mahomes in the preseason. Defensively, the Chiefs do have some question marks, and they'll obviously be facing a tough challenge in the Chargers offense on Sunday, but I'm confident we'll see them play well. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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09-09-18 | Texans v. Patriots UNDER 51 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Foxborough on Sunday afternoon. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last year as the Patriots came back to win by a 36-33 score. That has most bettors anticipating another shootout on Sunday afternoon, but I'm not so easily convinced. The Texans were certainly a better defensive team than they showed in that game against the Patriots last season. I believe they have the potential to be even better on that side of the football this year. Meanwhile, the Patriots offense is missing a number of key cogs from a year ago and while they should cruise to another AFC East title, I'm not sure they're going to be the offensive juggernaut we've seen in years' past. Defensively, the Pats were shredded by Texans QB DeShaun Watson in what was really his 'coming out party' a year ago. Expect New England to do a better job of containing Watson this time around. I don't anticipate either team generating much on the ground in this one, and while that can sometimes mean we're in for an air show, I do have confidence in both secondaries to hold up well here in Week 1. Note that the closing total in this matchup last year was just 44.5 points at most books. We're dealing with a much higher number this time around - I'm not sure it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Michigan State v. Arizona State +5.5 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 26 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona State plus the points over Michigan State at 10:45 pm et on Saturday. I’ll grab the points with the Sun Devils as they host the Spartans in an intriguing late night matchup on Saturday. Michigan State stumbled its way to a 38-31 home win over Utah State last week. The Spartans didn’t score a touchdown in that game until nearly five minutes into the second quarter and that was against what is by no means an elite Aggies defense. While Michigan State didn’t give up anything on the ground in that game, the Aggies didn’t really force the issue. Arizona State on the other hand, will. The Sun Devils wasted no time shaking off the cobwebs in a 49-7 rout of Texas-San Antonio. I like the offense head coach Herm Edwards has in place and I believe the defense will only get better as the season goes on. QB Manny Wilkins didn’t have to be perfect against UTSA but still managed to throw for 237 yards and four touchdowns. As far as I’m concerned, this is a good time to be welcoming Michigan State to Tempe. While the Spartans will undoubtedly be sharper than they were a week ago, I’m not sure it will be enough to win this one by margin. Take Arizona State (10*). |
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09-08-18 | USC v. Stanford UNDER 55.5 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between USC and Stanford at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. While most folks would love to see a shootout between the Trojans and Cardinal in primetime on Saturday I’m not expect it to play out that way. USC may have overlooked UNLV a little in its home opener last week, as it was involved in a first half slugfest, in which it only managed one touchdown and four field goals. The Trojans didn’t score in the third quarter of that game but then exploded for 24 fourth quarter points, after they had pummeled the Rebels into submission. I don’t believe they’ll be able to wear down the Cardinal in the same way on Saturday afternoon. Similarly, Stanford only managed one first half touchdown against San Diego State last week. The Cardinal then put up a pair of third quarter touchdowns, but again, they’ll be facing a tougher challenge in the Trojans this week. I did like what I saw from the Stanford defense and feel they can carry over some of that positive momentum into this showdown. USC got torched by the UNLV ground game last Saturday but there’s no question that was a focus of emphasis during practice this week. I simply feel there are a lot of similarities between these two football teams, and that we’re in for a tightly-contested affair on Saturday night at The Farm. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Braves v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at Chase Field on Saturday night. Julio Teheran will take the ball for the Braves. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in six straight starts. Over that stretch he has allowed two earned runs or less on four occasions. Clay Buchholz will counter for Arizona. He owns a 2.73 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at home this season. Note that he has worked at least seven innings in four of his last five trips to the hill. While he lasted only five innings against the Dodgers last time out he still gave up only four hits and one earned run. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 9.5 | 2-4 | Win | 108 | 22 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at Coors Field on Saturday night. Walker Buehler will take the ball for the Dodgers. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts overall. Buehler has allowed just four earned runs over his last five outings, covering a span of 30 1/3 innings of work. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight straight starts. You would have to go back to July 21st to find the last time he allowed more than three earned runs in a start. The 'under' is 4-2 in his last six trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Air Force +10 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
NCAAF Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Air Force plus the points over Florida Atlantic at 2 pm et on Saturday. I’ll grab the generous helping of points with Air Force as it aims for its second straight victory to open the season at Florida Atlantic on Saturday afternoon. The Falcons delivered a clean 38-0 victory over FCS squad Stony Brook last week. That wasn’t exactly a statement victory although it is worth noting that Air Force was favored by just north of two touchdowns in advance of that contest. I like the fact that the Falcons came roaring out of the gates with a touchdown on their first drive of the game and did a nice job putting things away for good with a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns as well. Needless to say, their defense was on point in a shutout performance. Florida Atlantic certainly didn’t expect to roll into Norman and come away victorious against Oklahoma last Saturday but it did believe it could at least stay competitive. That wasn’t the case as the Owls were blown out of the water, falling behind 42-0 before halftime in an eventual 63-14 rout. That certainly won’t do wonders for FAU’s confidence heading into this suddenly critical matchup with a tough out in Air Force. The Owls didn’t get much from their passing game and their ground game coughed and sputtered throughout the loss to the Sooners. They’ll get a lot more breathing room against a middle of the road Falcons defense here, but can they ultimately pull away to win by margin? I’m not so sure with Air Force more than capable of dominating time of possession and chewing up precious clock. Take Air Force (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Air Force v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 65.5 | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Air Force and Florida Atlantic at 2 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Boca Raton on Saturday afternoon. A couple of things heading into this matchup on Saturday afternoon; first the Air Force offense probably isn’t quite as good as it looked in last week’s 38-0 rout of FCS squad Stony Brook. Second, the Florida Atlantic defense probably isn’t as bad as it looked in last week’s 63-14 blowout loss against Oklahoma. I’m not counting on many explosive plays in this intriguing, under the radar affair on Saturday afternoon. The Falcons will undoubtedly be looking to chew some clock and stay within arm’s reach for four quarters while Florida Atlantic will simply be looking for a bounce-back victory – style points really don’t matter at this point, even if this is a Lane Kiffin-led football team. We’re dealing with an inflated total as I simply don’t believe we’ll see both offenses show up and fire on all cylinders in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Kansas v. Central Michigan UNDER 49.5 | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Kansas and Central Michigan at 3 pm et on Saturday. I was initially leaning to a play on Central Michigan minus the points in this game but I think the line has moved into unplayable territory with the Chippewas. Kansas’ road woes are well-documented to be sure and I certainly feel that is now factored into this line. The Jayhawks are coming off an overtime loss, at home, against FCS squad Nicholls State last week. That game was a bit of a slugfest with just 40 total points in regulation time. The Kansas offense will remain fairly one-dimensional with RB Khalil Herbert carrying much of the load. QB Peyton Bender showed flashes of brilliance, but those were few and far between as he completed just 19-of-35 passes. Things won’t get easier against a Central Michigan squad that hung tough against Kentucky, on the road no less, last week. The Chips forced four turnovers in that game but their offense was stagnant (albeit against a good defense). Note that their 20-point performance was helped along by a defensive touchdown. QB Tony Poljan will be a work-in-progress and I don’t expect big things from him against a Power 5 conference opponent on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Arizona v. Houston UNDER 72 | Top | 18-45 | Win | 100 | 63 h 34 m | Show |
NCAAF Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Houston at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll go the contrarian route on Saturday afternoon as Arizona heads to Houston for an early start non-conference showdown. Most are expecting a high-scoring affair but I expect a different story to unfold. Keep in mind, these two teams met last September in Arizona and totaled just 35 points in a three-point Cougars victory. Arizona is in a bit of a tough spot here, coming off an unexpected home loss to BYU to open the season last week. The Wildcats scored only 23 points in that loss, with 13 of those coming in the fourth quarter. They didn't manage to put any points on the board in the first or third quarters in that contest. Their first touchdown didn't come until the final minute of the first half. While the Arizona offense will undoubtedly improve as the season goes on, I don't see a big bounce-back performance from that unit here. Houston rolled to a 45-27 victory over Rice last week but it's worth noting that the Cougars didn't put a touchdown on the board until midway through the second quarter, and that was against a weak Owls defense. I do feel that QB D'Eriq King's three-touchdown (through the air - he added one on the ground) day had more to do with taking what Rice gave him than anything else. I expect him to face a tougher challenge against a Wildcats defense that did hold its own against BYU last week. The early start doesn't hurt our cause here as this game will kick off just after 11 am local time. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Nevada v. Vanderbilt UNDER 62 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Nevada and Vanderbilt at 12 noon et on Saturday. I love the way this play sets up on Saturday. Nevada is coming off a 72-19 rout of FCS squad Portland State. The Wolf Pack absolutely exploded over the second and third quarters of that contest but what else was to be expected? After all, they were four-touchdown favorites entering that game with a total set in the 70’s. Here, Nevada will face a much stiffer challenge. And it’s certainly worth noting that the Wolf Pack were actually held out of the end zone offensively until the second quarter last week (they did return an interception for a touchdown in the first quarter). Also worth mentioning is the fact that they added a punt return touchdown and three of their offensive touchdowns went for 47 yards or more. I certainly don’t expect Vanderbilt to give the Wolf Pack so much open field on Saturday. Vandy put up a 35-7 win over Middle Tennessee State last week – an impressive win to be sure as MTSU is a quality opponent (Vandy was favored by only three points). Much like Nevada, the Commodores were also buoyed by a defensive touchdown last week. Note that their offense put up just 14 points through the first three quarters against MTSU. Take the under (10*). |
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09-07-18 | Yankees v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Safeco Field on Friday night. Masahiro Tanaka will get the start for the Yankees. He has been sharp lately, working at least six innings in four straight starts, and seven innings in each of his last two outings. Tanaka has given up two earned runs or less in seven of his last nine trips to the hill. James Paxton will counter for Seattle. He left a start early due to injury on August 14th in Oakland and returned to the mound last time out against the A's. In that most recent start Paxton gave up only three earned runs on just two hits in five innings pitched. The 'under' is 7-4 in his 11 home starts this season where he has posted a 3.21 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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09-07-18 | TCU v. SMU UNDER 58.5 | Top | 42-12 | Win | 100 | 73 h 56 m | Show |
NCAAF Friday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and SMU at 8 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams were involved in high-scoring affairs last week, albeit with much different outcomes as TCU rolled past Southern and SMU had its doors blown off by North Texas. It is worth noting that TCU was a 49.5-point favorite against Southern and it did take the Horned Frogs half a quarter to find the end zone. QB Shawn Robinson has taken over the reins and certainly played well, but I don't believe we'll see this offense firing on all cylinders for at least a couple of weeks. SMU didn't get on the scoreboard until the fourth quarter against a very beatable North Texas defense last week. On a positive note, the Mustangs did allow only one offensive touchdown in the entire first half against the Mean Green Eagles. They were facing a seasoned veteran QB in Mason Fine in that contest, noting that he threw for over 4,000 yards and 31 touchdowns a year ago. The Mustangs will actually be taking a step down in class in some sense as far as quarterbacks go against Robinson. Last year's matchup between these two teams ended up reaching 92 total points. However, it's worth noting that the last three matchups on this field have totaled 56 points or less with the most recent totaling only 36 points in 2016. There's no rush to play this total as we'll likely see it climb by at least a couple of points before kickoff on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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09-07-18 | Braves v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Chase Field on Friday night. Kevin Gausman will get the call for the Braves. He has been terrific since joining Atlanta, having allowed three earned runs or less in all six starts and two or less in his last five trips to the hill. Over his last three outings, Gausman has given up just one earned run in 19 innings of work. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last four starts. Patrick Corbin will counter for Arizona. He only lasted five innings last time out but didn't give up a single earned run against the Dodgers, on the road no less. Corbin has worked at least six innings in eight of his last nine starts. Here at home Corbin has recorded a 3.25 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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09-07-18 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 9.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Coors Field on Friday night. The Dodgers will hand the ball to their ace Clayton Kershaw. He has been outstanding on the road this season, posting a 1.98 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. The 'under' has gone 6-3 in Kershaw's nine road starts. He has worked at least seven innings in each of his last four starts and has given up two earned runs or less in eight straight outings. Jon Gray will counter for Colorado. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in nine straight starts. Gray has allowed three earned runs or less in seven of those nine outings. The 'under' is 6-3 over that stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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09-07-18 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Fenway Park on Friday night. Gerritt Cole will take the ball for the Astros. He faced the Red Sox earlier this season and gave up just three earned runs in seven innings of work. He enters this start having worked at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five trips to the hill. Cole has posted a 2.79 ERA and 1.08 WHIP on the road this season. David Price got roughed up in his most recent start against Miami but should bounce back here. Note that he had worked at least six innings in seven straight outings previously. The 'under' is 5-1-1 in Price's last seven starts overall and he has posted a 3.10 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-07-18 | Phillies v. Mets UNDER 7 | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and New York at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Citi Field on Friday night. Aaron Nola will take the ball for the Phillies. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven straight starts. He wasn't at his absolute best last time out, but was also up against a tougher offense in the Cubs than he'll face in New York on Friday night. The 'under' is 4-2-1 in Nola's last seven outings. Steven Matz will counter for New York. He has worked seven innings in his last two starts, allowing just two earned runs on eight hits while striking out 18 and walking only two. He has been solid at home this season, posting a 3.84 ERA and 1.12 WHIP despite his ugly 1-6 record. Take the under (10*). |
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09-06-18 | Braves v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Arizona on Thursday night. Anibal Sanchez will take the ball for the Braves. He has turned plenty of heads this season, pitching like the ace of the Braves staff, recording a 2.98 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. The 'under' has gone 12-6-3 in his 19 starts so far this season. Sanchez has worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last three starts, allowing just five earned runs in 17 2/3 innings pitched. Zack Greinke will counter for Arizona. He has posted almost identical numbers to those of Sanchez and has been at his absolute best here at home, recording a 2.16 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The 'under' has gone 10-4-2 in his 16 home outings this season. Greinke has given up two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts against Atlanta. Take the under (10*). |
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09-06-18 | Falcons v. Eagles -2 | Top | 12-18 | Win | 100 | 48 h 36 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Atlanta at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The defending Super Bowl champions have gone an impressive 11-3 SU since the NFL went to the Thursday night kickoff in the early-2000's. Of course, we saw the defending champion Patriots fall to the Chiefs last year, but I don't expect history to repeat itself with the Eagles here. It's certainly worth noting that the SU winner has gone an incredible 77-7 ATS in the Eagles last 84 games overall. We're dealing with a very short pointspread here, largely due to Philadelphia's numerous injury concerns - most notably absent from this game will be QB Carson Wentz. Nick Foles didn't look great in the preseason and also suffered an injury of his own but has put in a good week of practice with the Eagles first unit and I'm confident he'll hold his own against the Falcons on Thursday night. The Falcons are a solid team without question, but I don't believe they're the Super Bowl contender that most make them out to be. RB Devonta Freeman wilted at times over the course of last season while WR Julio Jones isn't the unstoppable force he once was. The addition or rookie WR Calvin Ridley will help, but I don't expect him to make all that much of an impact in this contest. The Eagles haven't lost a meaningful game at home since December 11, 2016. Look for them to make the key plays down the stretch in this one to secure a big opening night victory. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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09-06-18 | Cubs v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -104 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' at Nationals Park on Thursday night. Kyle Hendricks will take the ball for the Cubs. He's been red hot lately, allowing only three earned runs in 20 innings of work over his last three outings. Note that he has worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last seven starts. He has given up three earned runs or less in seven of eight career starts against the Nationals. Stephen Strasburg will counter for Washington. He struggled in his first start after returning from a stint on the D.L. but has bounced back since, giving up only four earned runs over 12 innings pitched over his last two starts. Strasburg has worked at least seven innings in each of his last five outings against the Cubs, giving up just seven earned runs in 36 2/3 innings of work over that stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-18 | Orioles v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Seattle on Wednesday night. Andrew Cashner has done a nice job of eating innings for the Orioles, working at least into the sixth inning in five straight starts. He didn't pitch particularly well against the Royals last time out but I look for him to bounce back here, noting that he has allowed three earned runs or less in three of his last five outings. The 'under' is 3-1 in his last four trips to the hill. Mike Leake will counter for the Mariners. He was also rocked in his last start but should rebound here at home, where he has worked at least six innings and allowed three earned runs or less in three straight starts. Prior to his last start, Leake had worked at least six innings in seven consecutive outings. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-18 | Yankees v. A's UNDER 8 | 2-8 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Oakland at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Oakland on Wednesday night. After a tough stretch, Luis Severino has shown signs of turning the corner again for the Yankees over his last two starts. Severino has allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last three starts and has lasted at least into the sixth innings in back-to-back outings. He owns a respectable 3.77 ERA and 1.22 WHIP on the road this season. Mike Fiers will counter for the A's. He was roughed up by the Mariners in his last start but had been pitching well previously, working at least into the sixth inning in four straight starts. Fiers has given up two earned runs or less in four of five outings since joining the A's at the trade deadline. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-18 | Giants v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Coors Field on Wednesday night. Andrew Suarez has been pitching well for the Giants, well beneath the betting radar for a while now. He has turned in shutout performances in three of his last four starts, working at least six innings in all three of those outings. Over his last two starts he has been in top form, giving up just five hits over 14 scoreless frames. Antonio Senzatela will counter for Colorado. Like Suarez, he's not a household name by any means but has been pitching well, allowing two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts. The 'under' has gone 7-2 over his last nine trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-18 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 10-2 | Loss | -118 | 23 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Chicago on Wednesday night. Jordan Zimmermann will take the ball for the Tigers. He has worked at least six innings in five of his last six starts overall, giving up two earned runs or less in four of his last six outings. He owns a 1.79 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 45 1/3 innings pitched at night this season. Rookie Michael Kopech will counter for the White Sox. He has had two of his first three big league outings shortened but has undoubtedly pitched well, giving up only one earned run while striking out nine and walking just one in 11 innings of work. In his first start against the Tigers he needed only 86 pitches to get through six innings, allowing just one earned run back on August 26th. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-18 | Mets v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Los Angeles at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday evening. Zack Wheeler will take the ball for the Mets. He has been terrific on the road this season, posting a 3.30 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Wheeler has worked at least seven innings in five of his last six starts, giving up one earned run or less in all but one of those outings. Hyun-Jin Ryu will counter for the Dodgers. He has worked at least six innings in four of five career starts against the Mets, giving up two earned runs or less in all five of those starts. Ryu needed only 86 pitches to work seven innings, allowing just two earned runs on four hits against the D'Backs last time out. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-18 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 8 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Progressive Field on Wednesday afternoon. Brad Keller will take the ball for the Royals. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last eight starts. Last time out, Keller gave up just two earned runs on four hits over eight innings against the Orioles. The 'under' is 3-1-1 in his last five starts overall. Corey Kluber will counter for Cleveland. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven straight starts. Kluber tossed seven innings of two-hit shutout ball in his last trip to the hill. The 'under' has cashed in his last two starts. Kluber owns a 1.98 ERA and 0.79 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-04-18 | Mets v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 4-11 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday night. Jason Vargas will take the ball for the Mets. He has enjoyed quite a turnaround after a tough start to the season, working at least into the sixth inning in each of his last four starts, allowing just five earned runs in 22 2/3 innings pitched over that stretch. His road ERA may be north of seven but he hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last three road outings. Rich Hill will counter for Los Angeles. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven of his last eight starts. Even in Hill's last start while he didn't last beyond the fifth frame he still gave up only three earned runs and needed to throw only 89 pitches. Take the under (10*). |
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09-04-18 | Orioles v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Seattle on Tuesday night. Alex Cobb will take the ball for the Orioles. He has been outstanding for the Orioles over the last seven weeks or so and checks in having worked at least into the sixth inning in seven consecutive starts. Cobb did get roughed up by the Jays last time out but prior to that had allowed two earned runs or less in five straight outings. Wade LeBlanc will counter for Seattle. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in five of his last eight starts. He's coming off a tremendous effort against the A's as he needed only 98 pitches to toss seven shutout innings of three-hit ball. The 'under' is 7-2 over his last nine trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). |
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09-04-18 | Padres v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Chase Field on Tuesday night. Joey Lucchesi will take the ball for the Padres. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts. Over that stretch he has given up two earned runs or less on four different occasions. Last time out, Lucchesi gave up just one earned run and worked into the seventh frame against the Mariners. Robbie Ray will counter for Arizona. He has been laboring a little lately but has still worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last nine starts overall. Last time out Ray gave up only one earned run on four hits in 5 1/3 innings pitched against the Dodgers. He has struggled at home this season but has pitched well in his last few starts here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-04-18 | Giants v. Rockies UNDER 10 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
MLB N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Coors Field on Tuesday night. These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair yesterday but I expect a different story to unfold here. Derek Rodriguez will take the ball for the Giants. He has made two starts since returning from injury and has pitched relatively well, allowing five earned runs on eight hits over 11 innings. Note that the 'under' is now 4-1 over his last five trips to the hill. German Marquez will counter for Colorado. He has pitched at least seven innings in six of his last seven starts. Marquez has given up two earned runs or less in each of his last four outings. The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in his last seven starts. Take the under (10*). |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State UNDER 55 | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Florida State at 8 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in this early season ACC showdown. I'm not sure where all of the offense is going to come from. Yes, Florida State ended last season on an offensive tear, having scored at least 38 points in each of its final four games. Keep in mind, it was favored by at least 13 points in three of those contests. The Seminoles should face a tougher challenge from the Virginia Tech defense here. Meanwhile, the Hokies had a really tough time getting anything going offensively a year ago. In stark contrast to the 'Noles, Virginia Tech scored just 107 points total over its last six games. This weekend has been all about the 'overs' but I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than the oddsmakers are calling for on Monday night. Take the under (10*). |
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09-03-18 | Cardinals v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Washington at 1:05 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Nationals Park on Monday afternoon. Jack Flaherty will take the ball for the Cardinals. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in six straight starts and has allowed just two earned runs over his last three outings, spanning 19 innings of work. The 'under' has cashed in each of Flaherty's last three trips to the hill. Max Scherzer will counter for Washington. He is coming off a rocky outing (by his standards) against the Phillies but has obviously been the picture of consistency for the Nats' again this season and should bounce back here. Scherzer has posted a 2.37 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home this season. Note that he has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight outings. Take the under (10*). |
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09-02-18 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 8 | 7-3 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and San Diego at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' at Petco Park on Sunday afternoon. Kyle Freeland will take the ball for the Rockies. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven straight starts. Freeland has allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last five outings. Jacob Nix will counter for San Diego. He needed only 79 pitches to work 8 1/3 innings in a victory over Seattle last time out and has worked at least six innings in two of four big league starts. Nix will be facing a Rockies club that isn't scoring with any consistency right now. Take the under (10*). |
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09-02-18 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 2-3 | Win | 104 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' at Dodger Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Clay Buchholz will take the ball for the D'Backs. He has been lights out on the road this season, posting a 1.73 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. The 'under' has cashed in seven of his nine road outings. Buchholz has allowed just one earned run in his last three starts, spanning 23 innings of work. Walker Buehler will counter for Los Angeles. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in five of his last six trips to the hill. Buehler has given up just three earned runs in his last four outings, spanning 24 innings pitched. Take the under (10*). |
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09-02-18 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' at AT&T Park on Sunday afternoon. Noah Syndergaard will take the ball for the Mets. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in six straight starts and hasn't given up a single home run in his last five outings. Chris Stratton will counter for San Francisco. He has given up just two earned runs in his last two starts, spanning 14 1/3 innings of work. He didn't issue a walk or allow a home run in either of those starts. Take the under (10*). |
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09-02-18 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in St. Louis on Sunday afternoon. Anthony DeSclafani will take the ball for the Reds. He has worked at least six innings in five straight starts. The 'under' has gone 4-1 in his last five trips to the hill. Luke Weaver will counter for the Cardinals. He's making his first start after a stint in the bullpen. Note that Weaver had worked six innings in tow of his last four starts previous. He has given up two earned runs or less in three of four career starts against Cincinnati. Take the under (10*). |
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09-01-18 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. Full writeups will return on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' at Dodger Stadium on Saturday night. We have an elite pitching matchup between Patrick Corbin and Clayton Kershaw in this one - two starters that are more than familiar with the opposition. I expect both to pitch well and work deep into this ball game. We're being offered a relatively low total but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the under (9*). |
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09-01-18 | Michigan v. Notre Dame UNDER 47 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan and Notre Dame at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Everyone would love to see a shootout between these two storied programs in primetime to kick off the college football season on Saturday but I believe we're in for more of a defensive slugfest. Both defenses are loaded with returning talent and should be well ahead of the offenses at this early stage of the season. We're talking near NFL-level talent on both defenses, while both offenses have plenty of question marks and holes to fill due to injuries and otherwise. The game itself looks like nothing more than a toss-up to me as it will simply come down to which team can make the big play late to seal a victory. Rather than sweat the pointspread, I'll go with the 'under' and call for two elite defenses to play like it on Saturday night in South Bend. Take the under (10*). |
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09-01-18 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. Full writeups will return on Sunday. Solid opportunity to back the 'under' in St. Louis on Saturday night as two unheralded but effective starters take the hill. I'm confident that we'll see Luis Castillo hold the Cards bats in check in this one while Daniel Poncedeleon has already cashed an 'under' ticket for us in the last week. Take the under (9*). |
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09-01-18 | Red Sox v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. Full writeups will return on Sunday. Two pitchers in excellent current form will go head-to-head at U.S. Cellular Field on Saturday night. We've had plenty of success playing the Red Sox 'under' the total this season, in spite of their offensive prowess. Another fine opportunity presents itself here as we're being offered an inflated total given the starting pitching matchup. Take the under (9*). |
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09-01-18 | Rays v. Indians UNDER 8 | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. Full writeups will return on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' at Progressive Field on Saturday night. Blake Snell has obviously enjoyed a career year for the Rays and I'm confident he'll build off back-to-back excellent outings on Saturday night in Cleveland. Meanwhile, Shane Bieber is enjoying a fine rookie campaign in his own right. Solid value backing the 'under' at a reasonable number. Take the under (9*). |
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09-01-18 | Cubs v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 7-1 | Win | 101 | 20 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday night. Kyle Hendricks will take the ball for the Cubs. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in six consecutive starts. Hendricks has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last six trips to the hill. Three of his last four starts against the Phillies have totaled seven runs or less. Zach Eflin will counter for Philadelphia. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in five of his last six starts. In two career starts against the Cubs he has allowed only four earned runs in 14 2/3 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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09-01-18 | Washington v. Auburn -2 | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
NCAAF TV Game of the Week. My selection is on Auburn minus the points over Washington at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. To be completely honest, I've always felt that Washington head coach Chris Petersen was more than a little overrated. Ever since Boise State's thrilling upset win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl all those years ago, Petersen has been hailed as one of the best head coaches in college football. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't, but at least this week, I believe his Huskies are being overvalued. Both of these teams have national title aspirations but I'll gladly back the SEC team (playing in SEC country) against a Pac-12 squad that still has a lot to prove after a couple of unexpected losses away from home, not to mention a Bowl defeat against Penn State, last season. This line has fallen into clear 'play-on' range as bettors line up to back the Huskies in Atlanta. Take Auburn (10*). |
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09-01-18 | Washington State v. Wyoming +1.5 | Top | 41-19 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 42 m | Show |
NCAAF Contrarian Play of the Month. My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over Washington State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We've seen a considerable shift in this line since opening, moving in favor of Wyoming, which may seem a little odd given the betting public has been backing Washington State at a near 65/35 split according to most reports. The move of course has a lot to do with Wyoming's blowout win over New Mexico State, on the road no less, last week. With that being said, I still feel that the Cowboys are undervalued as they host Washington State on Saturday afternoon. Wyoming actually has its best team in years but it's somewhat muted by the loss of Josh Allen, who has moved on to greener pastures in the NFL. While NFL scouts loved Allen's make-up, the fact is, he didn't play well at all for most of last season, essentially holding the Cowboys back. There's little reason to expect any considerable drop in production at the quarterback position this season. Wyoming barely had to break a sweat in last week's victory but will obviously have to work a little harder to get a 'W' against a hungry Cougars squad. Following the tragic passing of QB Tyler Hillinski the Cougars are anything but settled at that position which is a bit of a new experience for them. This will go down as an upset, but shouldn't really be considered one. Take Wyoming (10*). |
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09-01-18 | Texas v. Maryland +14 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Maryland plus the points over Texas at 12 noon et on Saturday. There's obviously lots of turmoil surrounding the Maryland football program and combine that with the Texas 'revenge' angle following last year's 51-41 defeat almost a year to the day and you've got yourself a truly overvalued Longhorns squad entering Saturday's showdown. Unlike last year's shootout, I believe points will be at a premium this time around, which makes grabbing two touchdowns with the Terps that much more valuable. This is no layup for the Longhorns, as the Terps will play with a chip on their shoulder and will certainly be out to prove that last year's outright win as an 18-point underdog was no fluke. Take Maryland (10*). |
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08-31-18 | Mariners v. A's UNDER 8 | 5-7 | Loss | -114 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Oakland at 10:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Oakland on Friday night. Mike Leake will take the ball for the Mariners. He has worked at least six innings in seven consecutive starts and while he gave up five earned runs last time out, the last time he did that he followed it up by allowing one earned run in six innings in his next start. Note that the 'under' has gone 6-1 in Leake's last seven starts overall. Mike Fiers will counter for Oakland. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in all four starts since joining the A's, allowing only four earned runs in 24 innings of work. The 'under' has gone 3-1 over that stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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08-31-18 | Colorado State +8 v. Colorado | Top | 13-45 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 3 m | Show |
NCAAF Rivalry Game of the Week. My selection is on Colorado State plus the points over Colorado at 9:30 pm et on Friday. Colorado State was shocked in its home opener against Hawaii last week, falling by a 43-34 score. I'm not sure whether that had something to do with the Rams simply overlooking the Rainbow Warriors or their head coach missing the latter stages of training camp due to health issues or just simply that they're not that good. Actually, I do not believe that it was due to the third notion I mentioned. This is a Colorado State squad that is better than it showed in Week 0. On a positive note, Washington transfer QB K.J. Carta-Samuels threw for over 500 yards and five touchdowns compared to just one interception. The Rams didn't get a chance to get their ground game going, but I expect that to change against Colorado. The Buffaloes bring no momentum to the table here after dropping their last three games to fall out of Bowl contention last season. If Colorado had one glaring weakness last season it was its run defense, something that I believe the Rams can exploit on Friday night. The Buffaloes should be able to dominate an overmatched Rams defense, but I believe it will take some time for Colorado to get rolling, especially after losing a number of key pieces on offense from a year ago. The Buffaloes have taken three straight meetings in this series with the last two coming in blowout fashion. Expect a reversal of fortunes on Friday night at Broncos Stadium. Take Colorado State (10*). |
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08-31-18 | Pirates v. Braves UNDER 8 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Friday night. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for the Pirates. He has given up just two earned runs in 12 innings over his last two starts and has worked at least into the sixth inning in nine consecutive starts. Taillon has posted a 3.33 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the road this season. Anibal Sanchez will counter for Atlanta. He has been the picture of consistency for the Braves this season, recording a 3.05 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with very comparable home/road splits. The 'under' has gone 11-6-1 in his 18 starts overall. He'll be facing a Pirates club that has scored just eight runs during their current 1-3 slide. Take the under (10*). |
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08-31-18 | Brewers v. Nationals UNDER 9 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Nationals Park on Friday night. Jhoulys Chacin will take the ball for the Brewers. He has worked at least six innings in four straight starts, allowing only six earned runs in 25 innings of work. The last time he faced the Nats' he worked into the sixth inning and gave up just one earned run. Tanner Roark will counter for Washington. He has worked at least six innings in six of his last seven outings. Roark has made six career starts against the Brewers, lasting at least into the seventh inning in all six starts, allowing only 11 earned runs in 42 2/3 innings pitched. Take the under (10*). |
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08-30-18 | Wake Forest v. Tulane +6 | 23-17 | Push | 0 | 47 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulane plus the points over Wake Forest at 8 pm et on Thursday. The Green Wave should enter the 2018 campaign with plenty of motivation after coming so close to reaching a Bowl game for the first time since 2013 last season. So close, yet so far away was the story for Tulane in 2017 but they'll be looking to make amends right out of the gate with what should be considered a difficult but winnable game against Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons did reach a Bowl game last season, and ultimately prevailed in a wild 55-52 affair against Texas A&M. That result alone should put plenty of backers in their corner here in the 2018 opener. Wake Forest will be relying on a true freshman at quarterback, at least for the first three games this season. While it's certainly possible Sam Hartman comes up big in his debut, I believe there's a better chance that he struggles against a capable Tulane defense. The common line of thinking is that the Demon Deacons have an advantage having had extra time to prepare for the Tulane triple-option offense, but I see it working in the Green Wave's favor here as they're rested and ready to go. Take Tulane (10*). |
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08-30-18 | Cubs v. Braves UNDER 8 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Thursday night as the Cubs and Braves open up an intriguing late season series. Mike Montgomery will take the ball for Chicago. He's coming off a one-inning scoreless relief appearance against the Nationals but prior to that had worked at least into the sixth inning in three of his last four starts, allowing one earned run or less in three of those outings. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last three trips to the hill. Note that Montgomery has posted a stellar 2.96 ERA and 1.12 WHIP on the road this season. Mike Foltynewicz will counter for Atlanta. He has recorded a 2.62 ERA and 1.08 WHIP here at home this season and brings excellent form to this start, having worked at least into the sixth inning in five consecutive starts, allowing just five earned runs in 32 2/3 innings of work over that stretch. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last three starts. Take the under (10*). |
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08-30-18 | Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and St. Louis at 7:15 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' once again in St. Louis on Thursday night. Joe Musgrove will take the ball for the Pirates. We missed the mark with the 'under' in his most recent start but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Prior to his last outing, Musgrove had worked at least six innings in six consecutive starts. That included allowing two earned runs or less in four of those outings. The 'under' is 4-1 in his last five trips to the hill. Musgrove has posted an impressive 2.92 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the road this season. John Gant will counter for St. Louis. He bounced back from a shaky outing to deliver seven innings of one-run ball against the Rockies last time out - at Coors Field no less. Gant has posted a 3.35 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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