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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-26-21 | North Carolina +6.5 v. NC State | 30-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Carolina plus the points over North Carolina State at 7 pm et on Friday. You can be sure the Tar Heels would like nothing more than to spoil the Wolfpack's chances of reaching the ACC Championship Game with a victory here on Friday night. It's been a largely disappointing season for North Carolina but all is certainly not lost. The Tar Heels will still be going Bowling and can perhaps improve their standing in that regard with a win over in-state rival N.C. State here. This matchup has actually been no contest in the last two meetings with North Carolina rolling to a 41-10 road win two years ago before delivering a 48-21 victory in Chapel Hill last season. The Tar Heels were double-digit favorites in both of those games and have to feel at least a little bit disrespected as nearly touchdown underdogs in this one. Yes, QB Sam Howell is banged-up with an apparent injury to his non-throwing shoulder but he was held out of last week's game as a precaution and is expected to play on Friday night. The real star of the Tar Heels show has become their ground game anyway. They're churning out 212 rush yards per game on 5.3 yards per rush this season. Of course their aerial attack remains a real factor, averaging nearly 500 passing yards per game on 8.9 yards per pass attempt. While N.C. State enters this game 'fat and happy' off a 41-17 drubbing of Syracuse and sporting a perfect 6-0 home record this season, North Carolina has yet to taste victory away from Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels couldn't have gotten off to much worse of a start on the road against Pittsburgh two games back but in spite of that still managed to force overtime in an eventual 30-23 loss. They also gave an outstanding Notre Dame squad a run in a 44-34 loss in South Bend back on October 30th. My point is, as bad as things have gone for UNC at times this season, there have been some positives and I don't expect them to go away quietly on Friday night. Take North Carolina (8*). |
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11-26-21 | Oklahoma State v. Oral Roberts OVER 148 | Top | 78-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma State and Oral Roberts at 4 pm et on Friday. You might be hard-pressed to find a worse defensive team than Oral Roberts at this given moment in time. In two games against Division-I opponents, it ranks 343rd in the country in opponents floor percentage. Outside of that it has faced a laundry list of no-name schools to put it mildly. Now it has to contend with a red hot Oklahoma State squad that has hung 80+ points on it in each of the last two meetings over the last two years and checks in off a 96-point effort against Charleston. Oral Roberts knows it is going to have to light up the scoreboard in order to keep pace in this one, and I think it can. Note that the Cowboys opponents have averaged just 20 three-point attempts per game so far this season. Oral Roberts averages 34. In its last two matchups against Oklahoma State, ORU hoisted up 32 and 33 three-point attempts, scoring 75 and 78 points in those two contests. The 75-point effort came despite shooting a woeful 33.8% overall and 21.9% from beyond the arc in the 2019 matchup. The Cowboys ride into this game on a three-game 'over' streak and I think it continues for at least one more game. Take the over (10*). |
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11-26-21 | Jets v. Wild -124 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Winnipeg at 3:35 pm et on Friday. We've been high on the Wild all season and after snapping their brief losing streak with a shootout win in New Jersey on Wednesday (we were on them in that game as well) we'll back them to add to the Jets misery on Friday. It's been over a week since the Jets last even collected a point. They're struggling mightily right now and a trip to Minnesota doesn't appear to be an ideal spot to break out of their funk. Note that Winnipeg is 0-5 the last five times it has been seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 5+ goals, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.8 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, Minnesota checks in a solid 36-20 after losing two of its last three games over the last 2+ seasons, averaging 3.2 goals and outscoring the opposition by 0.4 goals on average in that spot. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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11-26-21 | UTEP v. UAB UNDER 50.5 | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UTEP and UAB at 2 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results last week. UTEP matched a season-high for points scored, hanging 38 on Rice in a 10-point victory. UAB fell in a wild one against UTSA, dropping a 34-31 decision. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Miners and Blazers wrap up the C-USA regular season. Both teams want to run the football on offense but it's notable that the two defenses have held up well against the run, with UTEP allowing 3.7 yards per rush and UAB even better, giving up just 3.0 yards per rush against opponents that average 4.2 ypr this season. Note that UTEP also checks in allowing just 6.8 yards per pass attempt. UAB has been slightly worse in that department, giving up 7.0 yards per pass attempt but that's against opponents that average 7.4 yppa. While UAB has given up north of 550 passing yards in its last two games combined, those two contests came on the road against quality offenses in Marshall and UTSA. Despite last week's 38-point outburst, UTEP is no offensive juggernaut having scored 30, 13, 26, 25 and 17 points in its five road games this season. UAB scored a season-high 52 points in its most recent home game but that came against a reeling Louisiana Tech squad. Both of these teams will be going Bowling this season and I anticipate a tightly-contested affair on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-26-21 | Utah State -16.5 v. New Mexico | 35-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State minus the points over New Mexico at 1 pm et on Friday. I think we would be dealing with a considerably higher pointspread here were it not for the egg laid by Utah State in last week's game in Wyoming. The Aggies actually still have a slim chance at winning their division and earning a spot in the Mountain West Conference Championship game, but only if they win here on Friday. The timing of this game is key. For the Aggies to steal a division title they'll need both Boise State and Air Force to lose. Boise's game starts just an hour earlier and it's a tough one against San Diego State. Air Force doesn't kick off until later in the afternoon. Expect the Aggies to show up for this one and that might be all they have to do against a New Mexico squad whose season has been circling the drain for months really. The Lobos offense is as lifeless as it gets. They've scored a grand total of 24 points over their last three games and were shut out by Boise State last week. You would assume their defense would show up here in the season finale but this is certainly a tough matchup against an explosive Utah State offense that will be determined to erase the memory of last week's debacle against Wyoming. Take Utah State (9*). |
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11-26-21 | Boise State v. San Diego State UNDER 44.5 | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and San Diego State at 12 noon et on Friday. This may appear to be a low total at first glance but numbers like this have been commonplace in games involving San Diego State this season. Note that the 'under' has cashed in five of the Aztecs last seven games overall. As for Boise State, each of its last six contests have stayed 'under' the total. Both teams like to run the football. Both teams are capable of playing exceptional defense. The Broncos and Aztecs haven't met since 2018 but the last time they did they combined to score just 32 points. Look for more of the same in this very early start at the Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, California on Friday morning. Take the under (10*). |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State OVER 63 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in this same matchup last season despite the fact that I think we're better-positioned for a true shootout on Thursday. Ole Miss has seen the 'under' cash in six consecutive games heading into this one. The fact is, the Rebels ultra-fast offense hasn't had to score a whole lot in recent weeks, simply due to the type of opponents it has gone up against. Here, I expect a different story to unfold. Mississippi State doesn't run the football often. The Bulldogs have just 60 rush attempts over their last three games combined. Over that same stretch they attempted a whopping 150 passes, with considerable success, gaining over 1,300 yards through the air. Ole Miss has held up well defensively over the last few games, allowing less than 20 points in each contest. But we got a first hand look at just how bad the Rebels defense can be in an earlier matchup against Arkansas - a game in which they got lit up for 51 points in a narrow one-point win (and non-cover). The Bulldogs offense hasn't had a great deal of success in this series in recent years, but this is its best shot at lighting up the scoreboard. Expect plenty of offense on Thanksgiving Night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-25-21 | Maryland v. Richmond +1.5 | 86-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Richmond plus the points over Maryland at 7 pm et on Thursday. Maryland got the bounce-back win it was looking for last time out but still didn't look overly impressive in a narrow two-point victory over Hofstra. While the Terps check in 4-1 SU on the campaign, they're just 1-4 ATS. Here, they'll face a Richmond squad that has been a little uneven in the early going but did deliver a 13-point win over aforementioned Hofstra last time out. The Spiders are shooting 48.3% against opponents that yield just 41.3% so far this season. Their three-point shooting has been terrific in the early going, knocking down their shots from long range at a 41% clip. By contrast, the Terps are shooting a miserable 25.4% from three-point range. Look for Richmond to stage the minor 'upset' here. Take Richmond (5*). |
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11-25-21 | UC San Diego -1 v. Southern Miss | 55-56 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cal-San Diego minus the points over Southern Miss at 7 pm et on Thursday. Southern Miss is coming off a double-digit win while Cal-San Diego suffered a double-digit loss in the two teams' respective tournament openers. Neither result was all that unexpected. Nor will the result be here as I believe the correct team is favored in this matchup. Cal-San Diego is off to a terrific 4-1 start. In its first year of Division-I basketball it struggled last season but that had a lot to do with a top-heavy Big West schedule. Here, in year two I look for UCSD to enjoy a lot more success, as we've already seen in the early going. While Southern Miss has scored 80+ points in consecutive games, that's had more to do with the level of opposition it has faced than anything else. I see this as a bad matchup for the Golden Eagles as they generally like to force opponents to shoot from the outside, an area where UCSD is highly-proficient, having knocked down just shy of 45% of its three-point attempts this season entering yesterday's action. Also note that UCSD has been better not only at getting to the free throw line, but making good on its attempts (76% entering yesterday's game compared to 69% for Southern Miss). The Golden Eagles are projected to finish near the bottom of C-USA this season while I believe UCSD is capable of making some noise and at the very least making life difficult on the top-flight teams in the Big West. This is a good measuring stick game for UCSD, especially off the 10-point loss to Montana and I look for it to come up with a victory. Take Cal-San Diego (8*). |
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11-25-21 | Alabama v. Iona OVER 148 | 68-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Alabama and Iona at 5 pm et on Thursday. When these two teams met in last March's NCAA Tournament we saw a much lower-scoring game than expected with Alabama essentially holding Iona down for 40 minutes in a 68-55 rout. Here, I'm anticipating a more spirited affair. Note that Iona got to the free throw line only five times in that previous matchup. The Gaels are getting to the line an average of 29 times per game in the early going this season. While the Gaels have yet to really get rolling offensively this season, I do think Alabama's up-tempo style will assist them in padding their offensive stats in this one. Note that the Crimson Tide are shooting a terrific 46.7% against opponents that allow just 40.6% this season. They've scored at least 86 points in three of four games so far. That low-scoring result in the 2021 NCAA Tournament is helping keep this total in check as I fully expected to see it open in the low-150's. Take the over (8*). |
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11-25-21 | Raiders v. Cowboys UNDER 51 | 36-33 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Las Vegas and Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. With a banged-up offense that could be without its top two receivers in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, I'm expecting the Cowboys to methodically move the football with long, clock-churning drives on offense while leaning on their defense to take care of the rest in what I feel projects as a relatively low-scoring game in Big D on Thursday afternoon. The Raiders are just looking to sustain a drive or two at this point. They've been held to just 16, 14 and 13 points over their last three games and this doesn't figure to be an ideal 'get right' spot against a Cowboys team coming off an ugly loss in Kansas City on Sunday. The wheels have quite simply come off for the Raiders offense as teams have counter-punched their renewed commitment to play action under coordinator Greg Olson. In the last two games combined, Las Vegas has only managed to muster 32 rush attempts and 62 pass attempts and both of those games were played at home where you would assume it would be able to control the tempo of the game a little better. The Cowboys defense quietly continues to dominate. Over their last six games they've allowed a miserly 111-of-188 (59%) passing. Over their last five contests they haven't allowed a single opponent to throw for more than 244 yards. Only the Broncos were really able to make much headway on the ground, and as you know that game was a bit of an anomaly as the Cowboys inexplicably fell by a 30-16 score. Take the under (9*). |
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11-25-21 | Auburn v. Loyola-Chicago +2.5 | Top | 62-53 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Loyola-Chicago plus the points over Auburn at 2:30 pm et on Thursday. The Ramblers fell just short on a bucket in the final seconds against favored Michigan State yesterday afternoon (but did manage the narrow cover). They'll certainly want to come away from this tournament with something and I like their chances of picking up a win against Auburn, which is fresh off an emotionally and physically draining overtime loss at the hands of UConn yesterday afternoon. Credit Loyola-Chicago to sticking to its guns and turning yesterday's game against Michigan State into somewhat of a slugfest. The Ramblers fell behind 9-0 right out of the gate in that one but quickly rallied and ultimately took the Spartans right down to the wire. That's what we want to see from a mid-major in an early statement game against a top level opponent. The case can certainly be made that Michigan State is by no means a national title contender (not at this point anyway) but it was a test nonetheless - one that Loyola-Chicago passed as far as I'm concerned. Now comes and excellent chance for the Ramblers to bounce right back and pick up a victory that would certainly look good on their resume come March. Auburn certainly entered this tournament with its eyes on a championship and is obviously disappointed to be playing in the third-place game on Thursday. I feel the Tigers are a little overrated at this point, carrying a number-19 ranking into this tournament despite having not really faced anyone of true substance. I don't think they're going to like the type of game that the Ramblers will undoubtedly present them with here. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*). |
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11-25-21 | South Alabama v. San Diego -2 | 68-67 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego minus the points over South Alabama at 1:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with South Alabama last week but that was as a big underdog against Alabama. Here, the Jaguars are only catching a couple of points against San Diego and I believe the line will prove to be too short. Since consecutive narrow losses (and covers) against Wichita State and Alabama we've seen South Alabama take its frustrations out on the likes of Mobile and William Carey. While South Alabama has a couple of high-profile losses on its resume, San Diego has faced the tougher overall schedule, including games against Nevada, Cal and Cal-Riverside. It has managed to go 3-2 so far but checks in off a tough two-point loss to Cal-State Fullerton (as a 6.5-point favorite). The Toreros have proven to be an excellent three-point and free throw shooting team in the early going this season and I suspect that will be the difference against a South Alabama squad that has padded its stats on both ends of the floor against weaker competition. Take San Diego (8*). |
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11-25-21 | Bears -3 v. Lions | 16-14 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Bears in this matchup between two down-trodden NFC North squads. Let's face it, neither team has much going for it entering this Thanksgiving Day showdown. With that being said, I have reason to believe that Chicago is better-positioned to stop the bleeding with a victory here. No, the Bears won't have Justin Fields. They won't have Allen Robinson. They won't have Khalil Mack. However, I do feel that two offensive players in particular match up well here, those being WR Darnell Mooney and RB David Montgomery. Mooney has shown a good enough rapport in limited work with QB Andy Dalton this season to give me hope that he can expose a Lions secondary that has been absolutely flamed for big play after big play this season with only seven teams giving up more pass completions of 20+ yards. Meanwhile, Detroit's run defense has been non-existent. The Lions have allowed a whopping 565 rushing yards over their last three games. Those are college-like numbers. Defensively, even without Mack, I also like the matchup for the Bears. Yes, Chicago like Detroit has struggled to stop the run lately but the Lions ground attack has been so inconsistent that I can't really trust them to pound away with any success here. Guys like Alec Ogletree, Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith had a field day against the Lions swinging door-like offensive line in the first meeting between these two teams this season and I expect that trio to create plenty of chaos again on Thursday. Despite the distraction around head coach Matt Nagy's potential firing, I expect to see the Bears come to play in this one. Take Chicago (10*). |
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11-24-21 | Sam Houston State v. SMU -14 | 66-75 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on SMU minus the points over Sam Houston State at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Tough spot for Sam Houston State here as it faces a SMU squad that will be in a foul mood after suffering back-to-back upset losses against Missouri and Loyola-Marymount. Keep in mind, Sam Houston State already has 22 and 13-point losses against Missouri State and Boston University respectively on its resume this season. While it has managed to post a 2-3 record, one of those victories came against little-known Letourneau. SMU opened the season with three wins in its first four games with the lone defeat coming at the hands of a quality Oregon squad, on the road no less. Off an 0-2 tournament showing, the Mustangs will be happy to be back home where they're a perfect 3-0 with all three victories coming by at least 17 points this season. Sam Houston State has yet to shoot better than 42.7% in a game this season and will have a miserable time trying to keep up on Wednesday night. Take SMU (9*). |
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11-24-21 | Canucks v. Penguins OVER 5.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The 'under' has cashed in consecutive games for each of these teams heading into Wednesday's clash in Pittsburgh. I expect a different story to unfold here, however. Note that the last time these two teams matched up in the Steel City they combined to score a whopping 14 goals. Interestingly, Thatcher Demko started that game for the Canucks two years ago and he's likely to be between the pipes again here. Vancouver has allowed just three goals over its last two games but I don't think that's a sustainable trend. Here, it will be facing a Penguins squad returning home off a successful Canadian road trip and one that's in line for an offensive breakout, noting that Vancouver is allowing 4.1 goals per game on the road this season. On the flip side, the Pens have given up a grand total of just three goals over their last four games - another unsustainable trend in my opinion and we can expect the Canucks to come in with an attacking mentality knowing their penchant for giving up goals on the road. Take the over (10*). |
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11-24-21 | Stony Brook v. Fairfield UNDER 134.5 | 78-83 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Stony Brook and Fairfield at 2 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams met right around a year ago with that game reaching 141 points to topple the closing total of 131.5. We're dealing with a higher posted total in this rematch but I'm not sure the move is warranted. There was nothing exceptional that either team did in last year's matchup. In fact, both teams shot around 40% from the field, they combined to knock down only nine three-point attempts and missed a whopping 23 free throws. That game saw just 55 first half points. Only a late scoring flurry, aided by free throws, ended up pushing the game 'over' the total. I like the way this sets up as a bounce-back spot for Stony Brook defensively. It has allowed all three opponents to shoot 50% or better this season but keep in mind, two of its three games came against quality foes in George Mason and Kansas, both on the road no less. Fairfield has shot 42.9% or worse in three of four games this season with the other coming against little-known Medgar Evers. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 35-22 in Stony Brook's last 57 lined contests and 40-21 in Fairfield's last 61. Take the under (8*). |
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11-24-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan State UNDER 138.5 | 61-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Loyola-Chicago and Michigan State at 12 noon et on Wednesday. We'll go the contrarian route here and back the 'under' as the Ramblers enter this game sporting a 4-0 o/u record so far this season. Of course, Loyola-Chicago is known for its methodical pace and tough defense. Early on this season, however, the Ramblers have shot the lights out, knocking down better than 52% of their field goal attempts in all four games. The level of competition they've faced has had a lot to do with that as they've been favored by 18 points or more in all four games so far. Needless to say, they'll face their toughest test of the young season against the Spartans on Wednesday. Michigan State has held its last three opponents to a ridiculous 57-for-185 (30.8%) shooting. Like the Ramblers, the Spartans have also been lighting it up offensively. In their toughest previous test, they were held to a season-low 73 points against an undermanned Butler squad, however. With Loyola-Chicago looking to tighten things up off its worst defensive effort of the season (relatively speaking), I wouldn't anticipate Sparty running away and hiding in this one. Expect a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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11-23-21 | Nuggets +6.5 v. Blazers | Top | 100-119 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. I can understand the logic behind bettors lining up to back the Blazers in this 'revenge' spot at home after suffering a 29-point loss in Denver earlier this month. In fact, Portland is in a 'triple-revenge' spot having dropped three straight meetings in this series going back to last June's playoff series. With that being said, with our without Nikola Jokic, I look for the Nuggets to at the very least take this one down to the wire. We fell just short fading the Blazers in their last game - also as a home favorite against the undermanned 76ers. Philadelphia kept that game close throughout but ultimately missed the cover thanks to a couple of made free throws in the closing seconds. Close wins have been the Blazers calling card here at home in recent years. They enter this contest riding a season-high three-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have lost a season-high four in a row, including a lopsided defeat in Phoenix on Sunday. Consecutive stinkers haven't been commonplace when it comes to Denver, however. Note that the Nuggets are 14-4 ATS the last 18 times they've come off four ATS losses in their last five games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.1 points on average in that situation. I mentioned the 'revenge' angle earlier. Well, the Blazers have actually been outscored by 1.5 points on average the last 76 times they've been in a 'revenge' spot against an opponent. Also note that Portland has only managed to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 0.2 points after winning four or five of its last six games ATS over the last 2+ seasons (38-game sample size). Take Denver (10*). |
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11-23-21 | Heat v. Pistons OVER 207 | 100-92 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' in the Pistons last game against the Lakers on Sunday. I'm not interested in going back to the well with the same play here, in fact, I'll go the other way and back the 'over' as Detroit wraps up its homestand against the Heat. Miami checks in off a 103-100 loss in Washington on Saturday. That's notable as the 'over' has gone 12-2 the last 14 times the Heat have played on the road off a road loss with that spot producing an average total of 224.7 points. Better still, the 'over' is 11-1 in the Heat's last 12 games as a double-digit favorite (the spread has crept into that range over the course of the morning). That situation has led to an average total of 227.8 points. As for Detroit, it has seen the 'over' go a perfect 9-0 the last nine times it has followed up three or more consecutive home games, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 226.3 points. Finally, we'll note that all three of last year's meetings between these two teams totaled at least 220 points. Take the over (8*). |
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11-23-21 | Flyers +1.5 v. Lightning | 0-4 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Lightning in this same matchup in Philadelphia last week. The Flyers proceeded to lose their next game as well, by a 5-2 score against Boston. Here, I do think Philadelphia is well-positioned to bounce back. Note that the Flyers are 8-1 the last nine times they've come off a home loss by three goals or more, outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 2.6 goals. They're also 11-3 in their last 14 games following consecutive losses, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 0.7 goals in that spot. As for the Lightning, they're 9-17 in their last 26 games following an overtime win and oddly enough average only 1.7 goals while being outscored by 1.7 goals on average, winning just once in seven tries when coming off consecutive games where eight or more total goals were scored over the last 2+ seasons. The Bolts were already without Nikita Kucherov but now they're missing Brayden Point as well. Finally, it's worth noting that Tampa Bay is just a .500 team at home this season, going 5-5 while being outscored by a narrow margin of 0.1 goals on average. Take Philadelphia +1.5 goals (5*). |
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11-23-21 | Illinois -10.5 v. Kansas State | 72-64 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Illinois minus the points over Kansas State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I like this as a 'get right' spot for the Illini after dropping back-to-back games as sizeable favorites. Unlike their last two games, which came against the likes of Marquette and Cincinnati, I believe the Illini will be able to overwhelm a Kansas State squad that possesses a rather limited offense on Tuesday night. Kansas State is off to a 2-1 start to the season but has yet to post an ATS victory. The Wildcats have succeeded thanks to facing opponents that boasted subpar offenses themselves. This will certainly be KSU's toughest matchup to date against an Illini team that shot a ridiculously low 28% from the field in Monday's rout at the hands of Cincinnati. One thing that has stayed true for the Illini through four games has been their stout defensive play. Opponents that average 42.4% shooting on the season are shooting just 37.4% against them. Look for the Wildcats to fall behind early and struggle to find a way back in the game, noting that the Illini have gone 16-6 ATS the last 22 times they've come off a game in which they shot 33% or worse from the field, as is the case here. Take Illinois (10*). |
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11-23-21 | Western Michigan -3.5 v. Northern Illinois | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Take Western Michigan minus the points over Northern Illinois at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I believe the Broncos are favored for a reason in this one, despite the fact that they've dropped the cash in four straight games and face a Northern Illinois squad that is headed to the MAC Championship Game. Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester is doing the right thing, pointing to the fact that the Broncos haven't won a game here in Dekalb since way back in 2007. Despite the fact that Northern Illinois owns the better overall record and as I mentioned is bound for the conference title game in Detroit next week, I believe Western Michigan may actually be the better team. Keep in mind, the Broncos have a road win over Pitt to their credit this season. I think they may have been caught looking ahead to this matchup when they coughed up a 14-0 lead on the road against Eastern Michigan last week. Here, we'll note that the Broncos are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games following three consecutive ATS losses. Take Western Michigan (6*). |
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11-22-21 | Valparaiso +7 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 78-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
CBB Tournament Game of the Month. My selection is on Valparaiso plus the points over Jacksonville State at 8 pm et on Monday (game was delayed due to leak in the roof). Valpo is still looking for its first victory as the Beacons (formerly the Crusaders). I think it has a shot at getting it on Monday, however. Off a narrow missed cover as a road underdog against Stanford, here we'll note that Valpo has gone an incredible 43-15 ATS in its last 58 games when coming off a double-digit road loss. The Beacons are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after allowing 60 points or less going back over the last 2+ seasons. Considering the Beacons don't have a lot of returning talent I see it as a positive that they've shot better than 41% from the field in each of their first three games this season. Jacksonville State is off to a 1-2 start with two of its three games decided by four points or less. Note that it is shooting just 67% from the free throw line and has benefited from facing three opponents that have been ice cold from the field (yes, JSU's defense has contributed to that but still). Note that JSU has been outscored by an average margin of 1.3 points after losing two of its last three games dealing with a 123-game sample size. Take Valparaiso (10*). |
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11-22-21 | Penguins v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Winnipeg at 8:35 pm et on Monday. You would have to go back five meetings, all the way to December of 2015 to find the last time a matchup between these two teams in Winnipeg stayed 'under' seven total goals. We're able to play this one at a 5.5 largely due to the fact that the Penguins have seen two of their last three games total three goals or less while the Jets are coming off consecutive 'under' results. I expect a different story to unfold here. Note that the 'over' is 21-10 when the Pens come off a game that totaled four goals or less over the last three seasons, producing an average total of 6.8 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Jets have seen an average total of 6.5 goals the last 16 times they've come off consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-22-21 | Giants v. Bucs -11 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 179 h 3 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This sets up as a smash spot for the defending champion Bucs as they return home off a highly-disappointing loss in Washington - their second defeat in a row - to host the Giants on Monday Night Football. New York is coming off its bye week and checks in having won two of its last three games overall. Keep in mind, those two victories came against a reeling (at the time) Panthers squad quarterbacked by Sam Darnold and a Raiders squad that is clearly in the midst of a downturn. Most expected the Bucs to come out firing on all cylinders off their bye week but that simply wasn't the case as they got tripped up by a Washington squad that certainly has the talent to win on any given week (remember, the 'Football Team' also gave the Bucs all they could handle during the playoffs last January). This is a far more favorable matchup for Tom Brady and co. back at home. When we last saw the Bucs here in Tampa they were laying waste to the Bears in a 38-3 cakewalk. New York dropped last year's meeting in this series by only two points in New Jersey. It's certainly worth noting that the Bucs were favored by 13 points in that game (a higher pointspread than we're dealing with here despite Tampa having home field advantage this time around). The G-Men held up well in their last MNF appearance against the Chiefs on November 1st. But let's not forget that this is a team that has also lost by 24 and 27-point margins in step-up games against the Cowboys and Rams, respectively. They're quite simply in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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11-22-21 | Hornets v. Wizards OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Monday. When these two teams last squared off in Charlotte last week, the Hornets cruised to a low-scoring (by today's NBA standards) 97-87 victory. Not surprisingly, we're dealing with a lower total this time around, but I'm not sure the move is warranted. Note that the 'over' is 23-12 with the Wizards seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 237.1 points. Also note that the Wiz average north of 119 points per game when playing at home off an 'under' result over the last two seasons (27-game sample size), as is the case here, leading to an average total of 234.8 points in that spot. The Hornets shot just 42.2% from the field in their last game - a 115-105 loss in Atlanta on Saturday. They're averaging 112.5 points in four previous games following a sub-43% shooting performance this season. The last time we saw these two teams match up in Washington there were 225 total points and we were dealing with a total set in the 230's. Take the over (10*). |
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11-21-21 | Lakers v. Pistons UNDER 212.5 | 121-116 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Lost in Lebron James' return to the Lakers lineup is the fact that this team isn't playing a lick of defense right now - at least not on its current road trip. The Lakers gave up a whopping 130 points in Friday's rout at the hands of the Celtics. I see this as the perfect 'get right' spot for the Lakers defense, however, as they continue their trip against the inconsistent Pistons in Detroit. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 21-8 in the Lakers last 29 road games when coming off an ATS loss. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 9-0 when they play on the road off an upset loss as a favorite, with that situation totaling an average of just 206.2 points. Detroit checks in with the 'over' having cashed in three of its last four games but the Pistons are anything but reliable offensively, noting that they've scored 102 points or less in seven of their last 10 games. Interestingly, Los Angeles scored just 92 points in its lone trip to Detroit last season in a game that totaled only 199 points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-21-21 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 44.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Bills and the 'over' in the Jets blowout loss last week here at home. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the New York hosts Miami. The Jets will turn to veteran Joe Flacco at quarterback. I don't need to tell you how much that should limit the offense. Flacco is more or less in there to be a 'game manager' as this appears to be a decent chance for the Jets to earn a rare victory, at least on paper. While we've seen New York really open up the playbook with Mike White under center, I don't think that will be the case with Flacco at the helm. On the flip side, while we can project moderate success for the Dolphins offense against a reeling Jets defense, I don't expect an offensive explosion. Miami has a very pedestrian ground attack, which is the area where the Jets defense has struggled most. The Miami passing attack remains undermanned, leaning heavily on rookie WR Jaylen Waddle and TE Mike Gesicki in the absence of Devante Parker and Will Fuller. Note that you would have to go all the way back to October of 2017 to find the last time a matchup in this series topped 44 total points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings OVER 47 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has inexplicably cashed in each of the Packers last seven games and five of the Vikings last seven contests overall. That is providing us with a very reasonable total to work with on Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, when these two division rivals met here at U.S. Bank Stadium last season they combined to score a whopping 77 points. The return matchup in Green Bay totaled 50 points. The Packers last two games have reached only 20 and 17 points but those were in unique circumstances. Two games back Green Bay was without Aaron Rodgers in Kansas City. Last week, it didn't need to keep its foot on the gas offensively as the Seahawks offense was severely limited with Russell Wilson clearly not 100% healthy in his first game back from injury. Here, I think both teams will gameplan aggressively on offense knowing they're going to need to put up plenty of points to prevail. The Packers have held up well despite missing some key cogs on defense. Now they'll be without do-it-all RB Aaron Jones as well but I'm confidence in A.J. Dillon's ability to fill the void in the backfield. Vikes QB Kirk Cousins has been wildly inconsistent but I think he can find some success in this matchup. Note that in last year's two matchups, the Vikes offense held the ball for just over 18 and 27 minutes but still managed to score 34 and 28 points in those two games respectively. I'm banking on a shootout on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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11-21-21 | Texans v. Titans OVER 44.5 | 22-13 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's easy to forget that this matchup produced two of the highest-scoring games of the entire 2020 season, totaling 78 and 79 points. The Texans obviously aren't the same offensive team as they were a year ago. With that being said, I do think they can contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonably low total. Tyrod Taylor will get another shot at the starting quarterback job despite performing horribly in a road game against the Dolphins prior to the bye. This is actually a favorable matchup for the Texans offense as the Titans defense is by no means dominant. Note that Houston does continue to bomb away, attempting 43, 32, 39 and 44 passes in its last four games. Having dealt away veteran RB Mark Ingram, the Texans have little interest in pounding the rock, running the football 18 times or less in three consecutive games. On the flip side, the Titans offense should absolutely unload on an awful Texans defense in this one. There's an interesting narrative at play here with Titans lead back D'Onta Foreman facing the team that drafted him before casting him away following a devastating injury in 2018. No Derrick Henry, no problem. At least this week as Houston has been flamed for 150 rush yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush on the road this season. Of course, the Texans haven't been any better against the pass, giving up 7.7 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average just 6.8 yppa this season. Take the over (9*). |
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11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings +1 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Packers have inexplicably covered the spread in nine straight games entering Sunday's NFC North clash in Minnesota. Their defense has led the way despite missing two of their best players in pass-rush specialist Za'Darius Smith and shutdown corner Jaire Alexander. I think this is the game where the levee breaks for the Pack defense against a Vikings offense that has all hands on deck and is coming off a two-game road trip that saw it score 58 points. The Vikes are somewhat surprisingly just 2-2 at home this season, where they generally own a significant edge. On the flip side, the Packers have gone 4-1 on the road but the majority of those victories have come in Houdini fashion. At some point they're going to get tripped up, and I see this as the spot. Green Bay has actually won consecutive trips to Minnesota but sustained success isn't likely. Unlike the other NFC North squads which Green Bay has beaten up on over the years, Minnesota has held its own in this series, and then some. The Vikes are 4-3-1 in the last eight meetings and the underdog has cashed in three consecutive matchups between these two teams. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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11-20-21 | Capitals v. Sharks OVER 6 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Caps in their last game - a 2-0 victory in Los Angeles on Wednesday. They've managed to collect three of a possible four points in the first two games of their western road trip, with each of their last two contests staying 'under' the total. I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday in San Jose. This has been a high-scoring series with the last four meetings going back to the start of 2019 totaling 13, 6, 7 and 9 total goals. Here, we'll also note that the 'over' is 17-4 the last 21 times the Caps have come off a game that totaled three goals or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. As for the Sharks, they've seen an average total of 6.5 goals the last 23 times they've come off three losses in their last four games. I'll also point out that this could be an Adin Hill game in goal for San Jose after James Reimer started the last two games. That's notable as Hill has posted a less than impressive .894 save percentage this season with the 'over' cashing in five of his eight starts. Take the over (9*). |
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11-20-21 | 76ers +6 v. Blazers | 111-118 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The 76ers finally snapped their five-game losing streak with a blowout win in Denver two nights ago. I look for them to build off that performance here. Keep in mind, it's not as if the Sixers were getting completely outclassed during their slide. Four of their five losses came by single-digit margins while the other was an obvious outlier in Utah - a game in which they allowed the Jazz to shoot 51.7% from the field while knocking down just 36.7% of their own shots. Portland is coming off consecutive wins on its current homestand but not surprisingly both were close, by five-point margins. That's been the Blazers calling card here at home in recent years. Here, we'll note that Philadelphia checks in 18-5 ATS when coming off five or six ATS losses in their last seven games over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 9.6 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Blazers are 2-11 ATS when playing at least a third consecutive home game, outscored by 3.1 points on average in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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11-20-21 | Oklahoma State -10 v. Texas Tech | Top | 23-0 | Win | 100 | 31 h 54 m | Show |
CFB Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma State minus the points over Texas Tech at 8 pm et on Saturday. Oklahoma State hasn't received the same attention as big brother Oklahoma this season but perhaps it should. The Cowboys have lost just one game all season and they covered the number in that narrow three-point loss on the road against Iowa State. Since that loss, Oklahoma State has gone a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS, outscoring opponents by a combined 142-23 margin along the way. Texas Tech is down to third-string quarterback Donovan Smith. He performed well in last week's big upset win over Iowa State but now that the Cowboys have some game film on him, look for them to keep the Red Raiders offense under wraps. That Cowboys defense has been among the best in the entire nation this season, holding opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush to just 2.6 ypr and passing games that average 7.6 yards per pass attempt to only 6.3 yppa. Here, the Cowboys offense should go off, noting the Red Raiders have allowed their last three opponents to complete 84-of-107 passes for over 1,000 yards through the air. They've kept opposing ground games in check for the most part lately but that's only because the opposition hasn't elected to pound away on them. Note that TCU racked up just shy of 400 rushing yards against the Red Raiders earlier this season. Here, we'll note that Texas Tech is just 10-22 ATS the last 32 times it has come off an upset win in-conference. Worse still, Texas Tech is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games coming off a win, outscored by 15.4 points on average in that situation. Take Oklahoma State (10*). |
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah -3 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Oregon at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Oregon has CFP aspirations thanks to a 9-1 record and a marquee road win over Ohio State but I expect its playoff hopes to be dashed against the Utes on Saturday night. Utah has gone undefeated at home this season and I'm confident that flawless home record will remain unblemished when it's all said and done on Saturday. The Ducks caught lightning in a bottle in that early season win over the Buckeyes. Line those two teams up again now and I'm confident we would see Ohio State prevail in convincing fashion. Utah has faced a tougher Pac-12 slate in my opinion with its lone conference loss coming on the road against Oregon State. Since that defeat it has gone a perfect 3-0, scoring a whopping 134 points in the process. The Utes aren't likely to get bullied at the line of scrimmage the way Oregon's recent opponent have. Keep in mind, the Ducks are taking a step up in class after facing Colorado, Washington and Washington State over their last three games. I think we'll see the Utes force the Ducks to throw the football more than they would like in this contest, noting that Oregon has completed 17 or fewer passes in six of its 10 games this season while Utah has limited opponents that average 7.3 yards per pass attempt to just 6.4 yppa this season. Take Utah (9*). |
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11-20-21 | UL-Lafayette v. Liberty OVER 53 | 42-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Louisiana-Lafayette and Liberty at 4 pm et on Saturday. I believe this game could turn out to be one of the most entertaining on Saturday's entire college football board as the Ragin' Cajuns travel to face the Liberty Flames. Louisiana-Lafayette has actually been one of the best 'under' bets in the nation this season but as a result, we've seen the books over-adjust and now we're starting to see value shifting the other way, noting that last week's game sailed 'over' the total by eight points. While the Ragin' Cajuns do like to run the football, I see this as a smash spot for them through the air as Liberty simply hasn't faced many strong passing attacks this season. In the Flames most recent game they couldn't do anything to stop Ole Miss through the air as the Rebels completed 20-of-27 passes for 324 yards in an ultra-efficient, yet not overly high-scoring 27-14 victory. Of course, if the Ragin' Cajuns choose to pound away on the ground they should have success as well, noting that Liberty has been torched (no pun intended) for nearly 800 rushing yards over its last four games alone. On the flip side, the Flames are certainly a better offensive team than they showed against Ole Miss two weeks ago. This is a team that put up a whopping 202 points over its previous five contests before the loss to the Rebels. While Louisiana-Lafayette's defense looks good statistically, it has also faced a littany of weak offensive squads in recent weeks. When these two teams last met two years ago it was no contest as Louisana-Lafayette rolled to a 35-14 win. The Ragin' Cajuns were two-touchdown favorites in that game. The talent gap has certainly narrowed since then, and I fully expect to see Liberty get in on the act here as well. Take the over (9*). |
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11-20-21 | Georgia Tech +18 v. Notre Dame | 0-55 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Notre Dame at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. No one is expecting Georgia Tech to put up much of a fight in this game as it checks in off four consecutive losses - its Bowl hopes dashed following last week's home defeat at the hands of Boston College. With a likely beating at the hands of in-state rival Georgia on deck next week, this essentially becomes the Yellow Jackets Bowl game, in front of a national audience in South Bend as they look to play spoiler against an Irish squad that has CFP aspirations. While the season hasn't exactly gone as the Yellow Jackets would have hoped, save for a blowout loss against Pitt in early October they've been in virtually every game. The Pitt loss marks their only defeat by more than 11 points this season. Notre Dame has rolled past its last two opponents but easy wins have been few and far between in South Bend this season. The Irish defeated Toledo by three, Purdue by 14, lost to Cincinnati, USC by 15 and North Carolina by 10. You get the picture. I simply feel the Irish are being asked to lay too many points in this matchup against a Georgia Tech squad that is capable of putting up plenty of points on offense and isn't as bad as it looked last week on defense. Here, we'll note that the Irish are a woeful 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS, outscoring opponents by just 5.9 points on average in that situation. Take Georgia Tech (9*). |
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11-20-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Western Kentucky -10 | Top | 17-52 | Win | 100 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
CFB Sun Belt Game of the Month. My selection is on Western Kentucky minus the points over Florida Atlantic at 12 noon et on Saturday. Florida Atlantic's recent dominance in this series combined with the fact that the Owls are 'desperate' for a win to become Bowl eligible is keeping this pointspread in a very reasonable range on Saturday. Keep in mind, 'desperation' doesn't always lead to victory. I think Western Kentucky is the vastly superior team in this matchup and expect the Hilltoppers to win this one going away. At a modest 6-4 on the season, the Hilltoppers are flying well beneath most bettors' radar. They got off to a tough 1-4 start this season but that had everything to do with a difficult non-conference schedule that included competitive road games against the likes of Army and Michigan State. WKU also took nationally-ranked UTSA down to the wire in a wild 52-46 affair back in early October. Here, we find the Hilltoppers fresh off five consecutive victories, going 4-1 ATS along the way. The wheels have come off for Florida Atlantic over the last couple of games as it has dropped consecutive games in blowout fashion against Marshall and Old Dominion. While FAU has taken the last four meetings in this series it's worth noting that it was favored in all four games. Different story here. Look for Western Kentucky to keep rolling at home. Take Western Kentucky (10*). |
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11-19-21 | San Diego State v. UNLV +11 | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 3 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Diego State at 11:30 pm et on Friday. San Diego State continues to climb the national rankings but the Aztecs have been anything but a solid bet lately, going 0-2-1 ATS over their last three games. Their last ATS victory came in a narrow six-point win over Air Force. They haven't won a game by more than a touchdown since back on October 9th against lowly New Mexico. UNLV checks in off consecutive victories - its only two wins of the season. Despite their poor overall record, I think the Rebels have made significant progress this season - their 6-4 ATS mark speaks to that. Save for a 48-3 beatdown at the hands of Iowa State back in mid-September, the Rebels have played a competitive brand of football here at Allegiant Stadium, losing a pair of games by a touchdown or less and defeating Hawaii by two touchdowns last week. Here, UNLV will be looking for revenge following a 34-6 beatdown at the hands of the Aztecs last season. Note that the last time these two teams met in Las Vegas, the Rebels easily stayed inside the number in a three-point loss. I look for this one to go down to the wire at the very least as well. Take UNLV (10*). |
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11-19-21 | Avalanche v. Seattle Kraken +1.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -191 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 goals over Colorado at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Kraken are reeling right now, losers of five games in a row with the last four coming by at least two goals. While it flies in the face of common sense, I believe they're well-positioned to take the Avalanche down to the wire at the very least on Friday. Note that Colorado checks in just 2-6 in its last eight road games when coming off a road victory in which it scored four goals or more, as is the case here, outscored by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. The Avs are also just 4-8 when playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games going back to last season, outscored by 0.1 goal on average in that situation. The Kraken should have no trouble getting up for this one and I like their chances against the MacKinnon-less Avs on Friday. Take Seattle +1.5 goals (5*). |
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11-19-21 | Jets +100 v. Canucks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Winnipeg over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Jets might look like they're in a tough spot here as they play the second of back-to-back games after a shootout loss in Edmonton last night. I actually like their chances of bouncing back, however, noting that they've gone 11-1 in their lat 12 games following an OT/SO loss, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that situation. Of course, Winnipeg has proven to be a resilient team in recent years, going 22-11 in its last 33 games following a road loss of any kind over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. The Canucks are playing as bad as any team in the league right now as far as I'm concerned and you have to figure head coach Travis Green's days behind the bench are numbered at this point. They'll be in better position to snap their losing skid when they host the Blackhawks on Sunday. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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11-19-21 | Magic v. Nets OVER 209.5 | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Friday. We already won with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two teams this season. With the scene shifting to Brooklyn for the rematch on Friday night, I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with the same play. Unders have dominated the NBA landscape so far this season so it's no surprise that we're dealing with another relatively low total for this one. I believe it will prove too low, noting that the Nets have been trending to the 'over' after reeling off seven straight 'under' results to open the campaign. The 'over' has now cashed in six of the Nets last nine contests. This sets up as a smash spot for the Nets offense, noting that they've scored 122, 129, 113 and 123 points in four meetings in this series going back to the start of last season. The Magic are certainly ripe for a letdown after posting their second victory over the Knicks at MSG this season two nights ago. They held New York under 100 points in that game. Keep in mind, Orlando is by no means an elite defensive team. Quite the opposite in fact. Prior to Wednesday's performance it had allowed three straight opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. On the flip side, the Magic were held to only 90 points in the first matchup between these two teams this season (as I mentioned, that game still went 'over' the total and we're dealing with an even lower total on Friday). Interestingly, the Magic have alternated good and bad offensive efforts against Brooklyn. Since the start of last season Orlando has scored 115, 92, 121 and 90 points in four matchups with the Nets. Take the over (10*). |
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11-19-21 | Ottawa +14 v. Montreal | Top | 19-18 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We've cashed a number of tickets backing the RedBlacks this season, in spite of their awful overall record. This is another favorable spot to back Ottawa as it wraps up its season by making the short trip to Montreal to face the Alouettes. Note that while the RedBlacks haven't won a game since September 28th, during their current six-game slide they've lost only twice by more than 13 points. Here, they face an Als squad that is playoff-bound and not likely to move out of the third spot in the East Division with Hamilton hosting a Saskatchewan team that has nothing to play for locked into the second spot in the West Division on Saturday. Got all that? Montreal has some injury concerns to deal with here as well. Top wide receiver Eugene Lewis has been limited at practice all week so it remains to be seen how many snaps he'll see on Friday. Meanwhile, Ottawa has actually gotten healthier down the stretch, recently welcoming back one of its best defensive players in Praise Martin-Oguike. Take Ottawa (10*). |
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11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +7 | Top | 25-0 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New England at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I really think the spot to back the Patriots was last Sunday at home against the Browns. Here, the Pats enter riding a four-game SU and ATS winning streak and most feel that a victory over the down-trodden Falcons is a foregone conclusion. I'm not so easily convinced. We've seen the Pats struggle indoors over the years, particularly of late. It's easy to forget that New England won by only three points as an eight-point favorite against the lowly Texans in Houston earlier this season (the Pats also won by a field goal in an indoor game against the Chargers in L.A. back on Halloween). The Falcons couldn't have looked much worse than they did in last Sunday's 43-3 loss to the Cowboys in Dallas (we took a tough loss with the 'over' after the first half saw 39 points scored). While I'm not particularly high on the Falcons in the long-term picture, I am willing to give them somewhat of a pass for last Sunday's awful performance as they were quite simply in the wrong place at the wrong time against a Cowboys squad coming off a stunning blowout home loss against the Broncos (while the Falcons were in a clear letdown spot off a big upset win over the division-rival Saints in New Orleans). Speaking of the division, Atlanta checks in just two games back of the NFC South-leading Bucs. With only two of four second-place teams in the NFC sporting winning records, the playoffs are still very much in play for the Falcons, believe it or not. Let's also keep in mind, they haven't lost consecutive games since Weeks 1 and 2. While the Atlanta offense is banged up and may not have the services of RB/WR hybrid Cordarrelle Patterson, the defense is arguably as healthy as any unit in the entire league. Off an embarrassing performance last Sunday, look for the Falcons defense to hold up well against a Pats offense that just isn't as good as it looked in Sunday's rout of the Browns. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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11-18-21 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 219 | Top | 90-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Spurs first game of their current three-game road trip this past Sunday against the Lakers and were certainly fortunate to do so, cashing that ticket by a single point. San Antonio followed up that game with another low-scoring result against the Clippers. Now we're seeing the lowest posted total of the trip, despite the fact that I believe this sets up as a the highest-scoring affair. While San Antonio is coming off a poor offensive performance, scoring only 92 points in a blowout loss against the Clippers, I do think it is well-positioned to bounce back here. First of all, it is catching Minnesota in a back-to-back spot off a 107-97 win over Sacramento last night. The T'Wolves could certainly fall victim to being 'fat and happy' in this spot after holding the Suns and T'Wolves to 37.6% and 36.6% shooting to open their current homestand. I don't believe the T'Wolves are nearly as good of a defensive team as they've shown. They've caught some opponents in favorable situations and I think it's been more of the case of those opponents having off shooting nights than anything else. I don't expect the Spurs to suffer from such shooting woes tonight, noting that they shoot just shy of 45% as a team on the road this season and have shot worse than 43% just once in their last eight games and on only two previous occasions this entire season. On the flip side, San Antonio is by no means an elite defensive team. In fact, the Spurs have allowed five opponents to shoot better than 51% from the field this season. While Minnesota scored 'only' 107 points in last night's victory, it did shoot 50% from the field and I'm confident we'll see some carry-over from that performance in a game that projects to be played at a quicker pace. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-21 | Stars v. Wild -126 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Stars last Saturday against the Flyers before losing with the 'under' in their most recent contest - a 5-2 win over the reeling Red Wings two nights ago. Keep in mind, both of those Dallas victories came at home. The Stars have struggled on the road, going 3-5 while being outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals. The Wild are coming off a home loss to the Sharks and have now dropped two of their last three games overall. That's worth noting as they've gone 34-19 when coming off two losses in their last three contests over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.4 goals in that situation. Better still, they're 19-7 in their last 26 games following a home loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals on average. As for the Stars, they're a woeful 1-10 in their last 11 road games following a win, outscored by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. They're also winless in their last seven tries when heading out on the road after playing consecutive home games, outscored by an average margin of 2.1 goals in that spot. The Wild have taken each of the last three meetings in this series and the last time they faced Thursday's likely starting goaltender for Dallas, Anton Khudobin, they skated to a 7-0 victory here on home ice. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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11-18-21 | Lightning -128 v. Flyers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning have quietly gotten rolling lately, going 6-2 over their last eight games with the only two losses coming by way of overtime. Here, the Bolts will head to Philadelphia, where they haven't dropped a game since January of 2017. The Flyers are coming off an overtime win over the Flames two nights ago. That's worth noting as they've given up an average of 5.4 goals and have been outscored by 2.9 goals on average the last eight times they've come off an overtime victory. In fact, the Flyers are 9-22 when coming off a win going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that situation. Worse still, they've gone a woeful 3-14 the last 17 times they've come off a one-goal victory, as is the case here, outscored by 2.3 goals on average in that spot. The Lightning have been an excellent positive momentum team in similar situations to the one they're in tonight, noting that they're 10-1 the last 11 times they've come off consecutive home victories, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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11-18-21 | UABÂ -2.5 v. South Carolina | 63-66 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on UAB minus the points over South Carolina at 7 pm et on Thursday. UAB is a team that's flying under the radar but boasts a ton of upside in head coach Andy Kennedy's second season at the helm. The Blazers have gotten off to a perfect 3-0 start, laying waste to the likes of UNC-Asheville, Morehead State and little known Rhodes College. I think they'll welcome the opportunity for this measuring stick game against an SEC foe - even if it is a lower-tier squad from the conference in South Carolina. The Blazers were always going to be a tough defensive team, applying intense pressure on the opposition and we've certainly seen that in the early going as they've forced an incredible 67 turnovers through three games. It's the UAB offense that was the biggest question mark heading into the season after a tough campaign in that regard. Well, early returns are positive as the Blazers have put up 102, 85 and 98 points, shooting better than 48% from the field in all three contests. While they are taking a step up in class here, I think the Blazers will be up for it. South Carolina underwent a tear-down of sort in the offseason, looking to put an awful Covid-tinged 2020-21 campaign behind it. The Gamecocks should be better this season but how much better remains to be seen. They're off to a 2-1 start with the loss coming as a six-point favorite against Princeton. The South Carolina offense has a lot of new pieces to work in, and so far we're seeing some growing pains. Note that the Gamecocks turned the ball over a whopping 24 times last time out against Western Kentucky. If they're careless with the basketball again in this one, the Blazers will make them pay. Take UAB (10*). |
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11-17-21 | Capitals -105 v. Kings | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Capitals saw their four-game winning streak come to an end against the red hot Ducks in Anaheim last night. Credit Washington for at least stealing a point in that game, losing the game in overtime. Here, I like the Caps to bounce right back as they make the short trip to Los Angeles to face the Kings. L.A. has somewhat surprisingly posted seven wins in its last eight games. This is a bit of a tough spot, however, as it returns home 'fat and happy' off a successful four-game road trip that took it across two time zones up north. We'll note that the Kings are a woeful 2-13 the last 15 times they've come off four consecutive road games, outscored by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. The last six times they've returned home off at least four straight road games they've averaged just 1.8 goals and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.9 goals. You would have to go back five meetings to find the last time the Kings beat the Capitals, back in March of 2018. The Caps have come away victorious in each of their last two games in Los Angeles. The last time we saw them play here in late 2019 they were priced as a -150 favorite and skated to a 3-1 win. We're dealing with a much cheaper price to support them here and I like their chances of picking up another victory. Take Washington (10*). |
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11-17-21 | Blackhawks v. Seattle Kraken -145 | 4-2 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Chicago at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this spot sets up for the expansion Kraken as they look to snap their four-game losing streak (0-2 on their current homestand) against the suddenly surging Blackhawks. While Chicago enters this game off three consecutive wins, it's worth noting that all three of those victories came on home ice. The Blackhawks check in winless on the road this season, having gone 0-6 while being outscored by an average margin of 2.4 goals in those six contests. By contrast, the Kraken have posted three of their four wins here at Climate Pledge Arena this season, outscoring opponents by 0.2 goals on average in their seven home games to date. With much tougher games against Colorado, Washington and Carolina lying ahead on their current homestand, look for the Kraken to make the most of this winnable game on Wednesday. Take Seattle (6*). |
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11-17-21 | UC-Davis +2 v. Pepperdine | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cal-Davis plus the points over Pepperdine at 10 pm et on Wednesday. If you've followed my plays this season you know that I'm high on Cal-Davis. We backed it in last week's eventual eight-point victory over Eastern Washington that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated. Some won while some didn't on that game thanks to some considerable line movement over the course of the day. Here, I believe the Aggies are well-positioned to stage the 'upset' against Pepperdine. The Waves are one of the more overrated teams in college basketball as far as I'm concerned. They've gone 1-2 ATS through three games with their lone victory coming against an offensively-challenged Idaho State squad. The Waves aren't shooting the ball well, nor are they defending well - not overly surprising given their lack of returning talent. Off a disheartening double-digit overtime loss against Utah Valley State, I'm not convinced we see Pepperdine pick itself up off the mat here. Take Cal-Davis (8*). |
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11-17-21 | Northern Colorado v. Texas -20.5 | 49-62 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas minus the points over Northern Colorado at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. I think Northern Colorado, while boasting plenty of talent - particularly at the offensive end of the floor - is quite simply in the wrong place at the wrong time on Wednesday night. Texas is coming off a tough 12-point loss against arguably the best team in the country in Gonzaga. That comes on the heels of a win and cover as a whopping 37.5-point favorite in the Longhorns season-opener against Houston Baptist. I'm confident we'll see the 'Horns get right back on track here as the Bears up-tempo style should play right into their hands. Northern Colorado simply doesn't have the same level of talent and athleticism that Texas boasts up and down its lineup. When these two teams last faced each other two years ago we saw Texas roll to a 24-point victory as a 16.5-point favorite. I'm not convinced the gap between the two programs has narrowed at all since, keeping in mind Northern Colorado already has a loss against the likes of Hawaii-Hilo under its belt this season. Texas takes full advantage of this 'get right' spot at home. Take Texas (8*). |
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11-17-21 | Tulane v. Florida State -18 | 54-59 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Tulane at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I love the way this spot sets up for the Seminoles as they come off a disappointing blowout loss against rival Florida on Sunday. Tulane just doesn't have the size or talent to keep pace with Florida State here. Keep in mind, the 'Noles opened the season by scoring 105 points in a 35-point rout of Penn. They simply had an off day shooting the basketball on Sunday. The good news is, their defense did hold up for a second straight game - they've now held both opponents to sub-39% shooting this season. The Green Wave are not surprisingly off to a wildly inconsistent start, only managing to split their first two games, both at home, as considerable favorites against Southeast Louisiana and Southern. The fact that they only managed to put up 70 points in both of those contests doesn't bode well as they take a big step up in class here on Tuesday. Take Florida State (8*). |
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11-17-21 | Wizards v. Hornets | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Charlotte over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Bettors seem hesitant to buy into the Hornets, despite their current three-game winning streak, having most recently taken down the red hot Golden State Warriors on Sunday. Perhaps that shouldn't come as a surprise as Charlotte is just a week removed from a five-game losing streak. Here, I look for the Hornets to 'handle their business' in a home game against the improved and streaking Wizards. Washington checks into this game off five straight wins. Keep in mind, the Wizards were favored in four of those games and the other was a pk'em. Here, we'll note that the Wiz are long-term losers when playing on the road off three ATS wins in their last four games, as is the case here, having gone 82-115 ATS. They're also a miserable 174-219 ATS when coming off consecutive straight-up victories. These two teams met three times last season with Washington winning only once (but not covering) and that victory came at home. To find the last time the Wiz won a game here in Charlotte you would have to go all the way back to 2017. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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11-17-21 | Northern Illinois -1 v. Buffalo | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Northern Illinois minus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Buffalo crushed Northern Illinois by 19 points as a 14.5-point favorite in this matchup last year. Let's face it, the 2020 college football season was a unique one, particularly in the MAC where teams only got a chance to play a few games. Here, I look for the Huskies to go right back to dominating the Bulls, noting that prior to last year's matchup they had taken each of the last seven meetings in this series this decade. Buffalo has been a major disappointment this season, at least in my opinion. The Bulls entered the campaign with high hopes, loaded with returning talent, particularly on the offensive side of the football. Unfortunately, the Bulls season got derailed early with four losses in their first six games, posting just one win against FBS opposition along the way (that win came in a non-cover on the road against a weak Old Dominion squad). Their season continues to circle the drain off lopsided losses against Bowling Green and Miami-Ohio and I don't see them picking themselves up off the mat against Northern Illinois. The Huskies have Bowl aspirations, having already gained eligibility with seven wins on the campaign. They enter this contest having gone 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS over their last seven contests. With a win here, Northern Illinois would wrap up the MAC West division and assure itself of a place in the MAC Championship Game. I certainly don't think the Huskies will want to leave anything to chance with a home date against a 'better than its record indicates' Western Michigan squad next week. Take Northern Illinois (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Red Wings v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The 'over' has now cashed in each of the Stars last five games but I see this as a favorable spot for that trend to reverse as the Red Wings roll into Dallas on the back half of a back-to-back. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-1 with the Red Wings playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games going back to last season with that situation producing an average total of just 4.5 goals. The 'under' is also 11-2 the last 13 times the Wings have played on the road following a game that totaled eight goals or more, as is the case here after last night's 5-3 loss in Columbus (we won with the Blue Jackets in that game). That spot has led to an average total of 4.6 goals. As for the Stars, the 'under' is 18-7 the last 25 times they've come off five or more consecutive 'over' results, leading to an average total of only 4.8 goals in that situation. The 'under' is also a long-term winner at 174-130, averaging 5.3 total goals, when Dallas comes off a win by three goals or more, as is the case here. We'll likely see Alex Nedeljkovic in goal for the Wings tonight after Thomas Greiss started last night. Nedeljkovic has been the better goaltender this season, posting a solid .929 save percentage in four road games. While the 'over' has cashed in two of the last three meetings in this series, the 'under' remains a solid 6-3 in the last nine matchups between these two teams. Take the under (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Tarleton St v. Wichita State -12.5 | 51-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wichita State minus the points over Tarleton State at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Tarleton State has been given a lot of respect from the betting marketplace in the early going this season following a promising 2020-21 campaign - its first in Division I - not to mention the presence of legendary head coach Billy Gillespie. The Texans have already faced Stanford and Kansas and managed to go 1-0-1 ATS. They'll also go up against Michigan and Gonzaga in road tilts later this month. Note that the Texans turned the ball over just eight times and managed to shoot better than 40% from the field (an accomplishment given the level of opposition) against Kansas last time out but still lost by 26 points. Meanwhile, Wichita State is off to a 2-0 start but has gone 0-2 ATS, defeating Jacksonville State and South Alabama by a combined margin of only nine points. We've certainly yet to see the best from the Shockers - at either end of the floor. They've shot sub-39% in both games while allowing subpar opposition to shoot better than 42% in both contests. This is a Wichita State program that went through plenty of distractions last offseason and by all accounts 2020-21 should have been a down season, yet the Shockers ended up exceeding expectations and receiving an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. They certainly have their sights set on another NCAA Tournament berth this season and have the returning talent to reach that goal. This is a good opportunity for them to ramp up before the schedule gets a whole lot tougher with an opening round matchup against Arizona up next in the Roman Main Event Tournament in Las Vegas on Friday. After that tournament they'll face the likes of Missouri, Oklahoma State and Kansas State in consecutive games, with the latter matchup coming in another early season tournament. Take Wichita State (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH UNDER 51.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
CFB MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Bowling Green and Miami-Ohio at 8 pm et on Tuesday. The last time these two teams met almost two years ago to the day we saw a closing total of 47.5 points in a game that snuck just below that number. I believe we're dealing with a higher number here largely due to the recent wild, high-scoring results we've seen in these weeknight MAC tilts. In fact, the 'over' has cashed in each of Bowling Green's last five games while the 'over' is a perfect 2-0 in Miami-Ohio's last two contests. I look for a reversal of that trend here. Bowling Green's offense came crashing back to Earth last week following a 56-point outburst against Buffalo the previous week. Last Wednesday we saw the Eagles score just 17 points in a blowout loss at Toledo. Note that the Eagles have been held to 21 or fewer pass completions in five straight games, topping 16 completions only twice over that stretch. They're averaging just 6.5 yards per pass attempt against opponents that allow an average of 7.7 yards per pass attempt this season. Their running game hasn't been any better but I do expect them to lean on their ground attack in an effort to effectively shorten this contest as a big underdog on Tuesday night. Miami-Ohio scored a season-high 45 points in last week's win over Buffalo. It had previously topped out at 34 points this season. There's no question the Redhawks strength is on the defensive side of the football, noting that they've allowed 18 points or less in four of six conference games so far this season. While they did put up 45 points last week, that was on the strength of four Buffalo turnovers. Bowling Green has struggled this season but actually checks in having turned the football over only four times over its last four games combined. Finally, I'll note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 18-3 the last 21 times Miami-Ohio has come off consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 47.3 points in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Warriors v. Nets OVER 221 | Top | 117-99 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The NBA season got off to a low-scoring start for sure. Both of these teams were a part of that for sure as the Warriors opened with seven of their first eight games going 'under' the total while the Nets started the campaign with seven consecutive 'under' results. Since then, we've seen a different story unfold, however. The 'over' has cashed in three of the Warriors last five games and four of the Nets last five contests, including each of the last three. With that being said, Golden State is coming off a relatively low-scoring affair in Charlotte as it fell by a 106-102 score. That leaves us with a very reasonable total in Tuesday's matchup in Brooklyn, especially when you consider last season's two meetings saw closing totals of 238 and 246 points with both of those games surpassing the total we're working with tonight. I mentioned the Nets roll into this game on a three-game 'over' streak. That's worth noting as the 'over' has gone 18-8 the last 26 times they've come off two or more straight 'over' results, producing an average total of 236.1 points in that situation. While there are plenty of 'under' trends at play when it comes to the Warriors, the majority of those situations have still produced higher average totals than we're working with on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-16-21 | South Alabama +23.5 v. Alabama | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Alabama plus the points over Alabama at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. With Alabama off to a perfect 2-0 start, both SU and ATS, cashing in a much lower pointspread range than we're working with tonight, this looks like the ideal time to step in and fade the Crimson Tide against an underrated South Alabama squad. The Jaguars are pegged by many to be a top-three team in the Sun Belt Conference this season, with a wealth of talent coming in by way of transfers, as is often the case under head coach Richie Riley. Riley apparently turned down a head coaching offer from Utah State in the offseason, which obviously would have been a higher-profile position. I don't really blame him as he's building something special at USA and might have his most talented team yet here in his fourth year at the helm. Alabama obviously boasts much loftier goals than USA. However, the Crimson Tide do have plenty of losses to deal with from last season's impressive squad. They've gotten off to a blistering start at the offensive end of the floor, shooting 50% and 49% in scoring 93 and 104 points against Louisiana Tech and South Dakota State, respectively, but I expect them to run into a bit more trouble against South Alabama and its predominantly zone defense. South Alabama has to feel pretty good about itself after suffering a narrow six-point loss against likely NCAA Tournament squad Wichita State, on the road no less, last time out. The Jaguars would love nothing more than to pick up an early season marquee victory, even if it is highly unlikely here. Nothing that they've gone 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog, we'll simply count on them to stay inside the lofty pointspread as I think a lot of bettors are sleeping on the Jags at this early stage of the campaign. Take South Alabama (8*). |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan -5.5 v. Eastern Michigan | 21-22 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Western Michigan minus the points over Eastern Michigan at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. With both of these teams performing horribly on the defensive side of the football in recent weeks, this play really comes down to which team I think can bounce back in that regard on Tuesday night. As far as I'm concerned, it's Western Michigan that boasts the far more talented defense, while also possessing an offense that is better than it showed (which is saying something) in last week's closer-than-expected 45-40 over lowly Akron. Note that Western Michigan had absolutely dominated this series prior to the last two years in which Eastern Michigan staged upset wins as nine and 13.5-point underdogs. Needless to say, the Broncos will be out for revenge here, while also trying to keep their faint hopes of a MAC West title alive. They're currently sitting in a tie for last place but only two games back of division-leading Northern Illinois, which they will face in next week's regular season finale. Its chances are slim to be sure, but expect the Broncos to put forth a strong effort regardless. Keep in mind, while EMU was beating up on the likes of UMass and Texas State (among others) during its non-conference slate, WMU went toe-to-toe with Michigan, Pittsburgh and San Jose State, even staging an outright upset of Pitt, on the road no less. In other words, these two teams may have identical overall records, but I certainly consider the Broncos to be the superior team, initially a consensus pick to finish second in the MAC West. Likely headed to a Bowl game and with the aforementioned faint hope of reaching the MAC title game, everything is technically still in front of WMU. EMU still has plenty to play for but doesn't really control its own destiny with its regular season finale coming against Central Michigan next week. Take Western Michigan (8*). |
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11-16-21 | Sabres v. Penguins OVER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams have been trending toward the 'over' lately and I expect that trend to continue on Tuesday night in Pittsburgh. The Sabres have seen five of their last six games go 'over' the total as their defensive and goaltending woes continue. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 21-9 in their last 30 games when coming off a one-goal loss, resulting in an average total of 6.9 goals. While not much was expected from the Sabres offensively this season, they have actually been pretty consistent in that regard, scoring two goals or more in nine straight games and three or more in seven of those nine contests. The Pens check in having allowed a whopping 12 goals over their last two games - both losses. Like Buffalo, Pittsburgh has an ongoing problem with keeping the puck out of its own net. Note that the 'over' is a staggering 11-1 in the Pens last 12 games following a road loss by two goals or more, producing an average total of 8.2 goals in that spot. Tristan Jarry will likely get the start in goal for the Pens in this one. His last four home starts against the Sabres have resulted in 12, 7, 7 and 6 total goals. If we don't see Jarry in this one that would mean Casey DeSmith would get the start and he has posted an ugly .856 save percentage in three games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-15-21 | Southern Utah +11 v. St. Mary's | Top | 51-70 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Southern Utah plus the points over St. Mary's at 10 pm et on Monday. St. Mary's is poised to take a step forward after a rare down year in 2020-21 but it certainly can't afford to sleep on a Southern Utah squad that went 20-4 last season and brings pretty much everyone that matters back into the fold. The Thunderbirds are coming off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite at Dixie State, however, and with that in mind, I feel they're undervalued in this matchup against what has long been considered a 'name brand' program in St. Mary's. This game will feature a sharp contrast in styles as Southern Utah boasts an explosive offense and will look to push the pace. St. Mary's is more adept at slowing things down. The Gaels look to eliminate passing lanes and force turnovers at the defensive end of the floor. I'm not convinced they'll have an easy time doing so against a seasoned Thunderbirds squad that excels on dribble handoffs and driving to the basket. Note that St. Mary's has only outscored opponents by 6.9 points on average when coming off consecutive wins over the last 2+ seasons (26-game sample size). That's close to where I feel this line should be sitting but with the Gaels 2-0 off back-to-back comfortable wins and Southern Utah fresh off the aforementioned upset loss to little-known Dixie State, we're being given a fairly generous cushion. Take Southern Utah (10*). |
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11-15-21 | Kings v. Pistons OVER 212 | Top | 129-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over between Sacramento and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Kings have somewhat surprisingly trended toward the 'under' this season and are coming off another low-scoring result in a narrow two-point loss in Oklahoma City on Friday. Keep in mind, they're just one game removed from a while 136-117 loss in San Antonio. Here, we'll note that Sacramento road games have totaled an average of 220.9 points over the last 2+ seasons. The Kings lone trip to Detroit last season produced 217 points. The Pistons two best offensive showings of the season have come in their last three games as they put up 112 and 127 points in wins over Houston and Toronto, respectively. Note that they've allowed an average of 115.4 points when coming off a victory going back to last season, with those contests producing an average total of 217.7 points. I like the fact that Detroit shook out of its shooting slump by knocking down an incredible 54.4% of its shots against the Raptors on Saturday and now gets to face a Kings squad that has been vulnerable defensively on its current road trip and has also been pushing the pace, hoisting up 92 and 95 field goal attempts in its last two contests. I simply feel the erratic nature of the two offenses in the early going this season is providing us with a very reasonable total to work with here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-15-21 | Red Wings v. Blue Jackets -123 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Columbus over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Monday. With confirmation that Elvis Merzlikins will start for the Blue Jackets on Monday, we'll back them at a short price against the upstart Red Wings. Merzlikins' presence between the pipes is key as the Jackets have won five of his seven starts this season and he's posted a solid .929 save percentage. Backup Joonas Korpisalo on the other hand has gone 2-3 with an .897 save percentage. The Red Wings are admittedly playing well, winners of four of their last five games. They already defeated Columbus once this season by a 4-1 score in Detroit back on October 19th. Here, we'll note, however, that the Wings average just 1.6 goals and have been outscored by 1.1 goals on average the last 12 times they've played on the road off a home win against a division opponents, as is the case here. The Jackets, meanwhile, average 3.6 goals and outscore opponents by 0.4 goals on average the last 16 times they've played at home off a home loss against a division opponent. Take Columbus (6*). |
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11-14-21 | Canucks v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vancouver and Anaheim at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. The Ducks are coming off a seven-goal explosion against Seattle on Thursday, which came on the heels of a 3-2 win over the same Canucks they'll face again on Sunday. Note that you would have to go back three meetings here in Anaheim to find the last time these two teams combined to score more than three goals. Here, we'll note that the Ducks have posted a 1-11 o/u record when playing at home off a win by two goals or more going back to last season with that situation totaling an average of just 4.2 goals. The 'under' is 13-4 the last 17 times Anaheim has played at home after putting up four goals or more in their last game, as is the case here, producing an average total of 4.7 goals in that spot. As for the Canucks, the 'under' is a long-term winner at 74-58 with them playing on the road looking for revenge for a one-goal loss against an opponent, with that situation leading to an average total of 5.1 goals. Also note that the Canucks average just 2.2 goals when coming off a game that totaled eight goals or more going back to last season (16-game sample size). Jaro Halak may get the start in goal for Vancouver tonight but that's not necessarily a bad thing as he has arguably been better than regular starter Thatcher Demko, who started last night's 7-4 loss in Las Vegas. Meanwhile, both John Gibson and Anthony Stolarz have exceeded admittedly low expectations between the pipes in Anaheim this season. Take the under (6*). |
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11-14-21 | Eagles +2.5 v. Broncos | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles may have lost last week (we cashed a ticket fading them with the Chargers) but this is a team that has made progress over its last couple of games, starting with that dominating performance in Detroit two weeks ago (we won with the Eagles in that game). Each of Philadelphia's three victories this season have come on the road and I believe they're well-positioned to pick up another win in Denver on Sunday. The Broncos are coming off a stunning blowout win in Dallas last Sunday. Here, they'll be trying for their second three-game winning streak of the season as they inexplicably hang around in the AFC West race. This isn't a team that has great prospects for the rest of the season, however, not with all of their key injuries (and departures) on the defensive side of the football. I think they're going to have to put up plenty of points to earn a win here on Sunday but we've actually seen their offense regress (believe it or not after last week's outburst in Dallas), with QB Teddy Bridgewater completing just 38 passes over the last two games and throwing for 217 yards or less in three straight contests. The Eagles have given up a very high completion percentage in recent weeks but aren't giving up a ton of yardage relatively speaking. They've held opponents to 6.9 yards per pass attempt this season (and 4.0 yards per rush). A brutal schedule has certainly contributed to the Eagles going 3-6 through their first nine games but it lightens up from here. After hosting the Saints next week, Philadelphia will face the Giants (twice), Jets and Washington (twice) over its next five contests. In other words, there's no reason to throw in the towel just yet. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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11-14-21 | Spurs v. Lakers UNDER 221.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Los Angeles at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs have been involved in consecutive high-scoring 'over' results but both of those games were played at home. San Antonio's six road games this season have averaged just 204.8 total points with the 'under' cashing at a 5-1 clip. With a number of key injuries, the Lakers have been highly-inconsistent offensively of late and are coming off an ugly 107-83 loss to the T'Wolves here at home on Friday. That's the same T'Wolves squad that the Clippers hung 129 points on last night (we won with the 'over' in that game). Note that the 'under' is 28-15 in the Lakers last 43 games with the total set at 220 points or higher. The 'under' is also 19-8 in Los Angeles' last 27 games as a home favorite of six points or less with that situation resulting in an average total of 213.9 points. As for the Spurs, the last 17 times they've played on the road off a loss they've seen an average total of just 216.5 points scored. Take the under (7*). |
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11-14-21 | Bills -11.5 v. Jets | Top | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The setup doesn't get much better than this as the Bills come off an ugly loss in Jacksonville last Sunday and now head back to the AFC East for a division road game against the Jets in the Meadowlands. The Jets were the 'flavor of the month' so to speak after they delivered a huge upset win as a double-digit underdog at home against the Bengals two weeks ago. Any positive momentum gained from that victory is long gone now after they dropped a blowout decision that wasn't even as close as the 45-30 final score indicated in Indianapolis a week ago Thursday. QB Mike White had the gall to suggest that he believes he should have been a first overall pick at a press conference this week. Just a little more bulletin board material for a Bills defense that will be looking to tee off on Sunday afternoon. Note that Buffalo has allowed just 13.2 points on average the last 11 times it has come off a loss. Speaking of teeing off, the Bills offense should 'go off' after QB Josh Allen was upstaged by his namesake on the Jaguars defense last Sunday. That poor performance does nothing to change the fact that the Bills boast one of the most talented and creative offenses in the league under coordinator Brian Daboll and I fully expect them to respond with a monster performance against a Jets defense that just got roasted by the Colts balanced attack last week. On the flip side, after scoring 30+ points in consecutive games, New York's offense is in for a wake-up call here. Lost in last week's defeat at the hands of the Jags was the fact that Buffalo allowed only nine points on 218 yards of total offense, despite being put in tough situations all afternoon long. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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11-14-21 | Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 54.5 | Top | 3-43 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 21 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. We ended up just missing with the 'over' in the Cowboys stunning blowout loss to the Broncos here last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this Sunday as Dallas hosts Atlanta. The Falcons are in a clear letdown spot after a wild upset win over the Saints in New Orleans last Sunday. While I don't expect Atlanta to notch a second straight underdog victory here, I do think it can contribute enough offense to help this one 'over' the total. The Cowboys have been vulnerable against tight ends this season and the Falcons obviously have a good one in rookie Kyle Pitts. We've seen Falcons veteran QB Matt Ryan settle in a little bit in recent weeks, save for an ugly defensive slugfest against the Panthers, and here I think we can have confidence that we'll see him bomb away, noting that he's thrown for 325 yards or more in three of the last four contests. On the flip side, the Cowboys offense is set to eat against a very beatable Falcons defense on Sunday. We did see Dak Prescott and the offense round into form late in last week's loss, even if that had more to do with game script playing from well behind than anything else. We know that this offense is far better than it showed in that game against Denver - I think the argument can be made that the Cowboys overlooked a Broncos squad that was ravaged with injuries and had just dealt away its best defensive player in Von Miller. The 'under' has now cashed in each of Dallas' last two games but that's not a sustainable trend in my opinion. Note that the 'over' is 13-2 the last 15 times the Cowboys have come off an upset home loss by two touchdowns or more. Over the last 2+ seasons we've seen Dallas post a 9-1 o/u record when coming off an upset loss of any kind, with that situation producing an average total of 59.7 points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-14-21 | Browns v. Patriots UNDER 45.5 | 7-45 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams will enter this game confident that they can lean on running the football and playing tough defense to earn a much-needed victory on Sunday afternoon. Don't be misled by the Browns wild, high-scoring 41-16 rout of Cincinnati last week. The Bengals simply didn't take care of the football in that game and Cleveland took full advantage. It's not as if the Browns offense had to do much of the heavy lifting in that contest. They gained just 361 total yards and completed only 14 passes in the victory. New England somewhat inexplicably had a four-game 'over' streak going prior to last week's low-scoring affair against the Panthers. Note that they've racked up well north of 30 rushing attempts in three straight games while completing 18 or fewer passes in three of their last four games overall. Running the football on offense - and effectively shortening the game - while playing stout defense is a formula that has worked for Bill Bellichick this season and I can't see him straying from that in this very manageable matchup with the Browns. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times the Browns have come off a win by 21 points or more, resulting in an average total of only 32.8 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-3 in the Patriots last 14 games where the total has been set between 42.5 and 49 points, as is the case here, producing an average total of 42.7 points in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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11-13-21 | Wolves v. Clippers OVER 220 | 102-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Saturday. The T'Wolves are coming off a low-scoring blowout win over the Lakers here at Staples Center last night, ended a brief string of consecutive 'over' results. The Clippers on the other hand have seen their last three games go 'over' the total and I look for that trend to continue here. The Clips are absolutely rolling offensively right now, having scored 120, 117 and 112 points in the first three games of their current homestand. They've had their way with the T'Wolves in recent years, scoring at least 115 points in 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series. While Minnesota's offense has come around on its current road trip, it continues to struggle defensively, and should for the foreseeable future. The Wolves caught the Lakers in a very difficult spot last night, undermanned and coming off a tough overtime win over the Heat, and took full advantage. Here, they won't be so fortunate. Note that the T'Wolves have seen an average total of 230.3 points the last 17 times they've come off an outright underdog win. The 'over' is 25-10 with Minnesota on the road coming off five or six losses over its last seven games over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 238.1 points. Take the over (8*). |
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11-13-21 | Flyers v. Stars -145 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Stars are reeling right now, losers of two in a row and four of their last six games overall. I do think they're well-positioned to get back on track on Saturday, however, as they host the Flyers, who are in a tough back-to-back and three-in-four spot after an upset win in Carolina last night. Note that Philadelphia is just 3-12 in its last 15 games following a win over a division opponent, as is the case here, outscored by 2.2 goals on average in that situation. They're 0-9 in their last nine games off a road win by one goal, outscored by a whopping average of 3.9 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Stars are a long-term winner at 116-57 when coming off a loss against a division opponent by two goals or more, averaging 3.2 goals and outscoring the opposition by 0.9 goals on average in that situation. You would have to go back five meetings here in Dallas - all the way to 2014 - to find the last time the Flyers won a game on the road against the Stars. Take Dallas (7*). |
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11-13-21 | Evansville v. Belmont -13.5 | 43-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Belmont minus the points over Evansville at 5 pm et on Saturday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Belmont Bruins here as they look to respond following an 'upset' loss against Ohio last time out. Here, they'll catch Evansville 'fat and happy' off a 20-point rout of an overmatched IUPUI squad two nights ago. Keep in mind, the Purple Aces opened their season with a 22-point loss against Cincinnati. While they do figure to be stronger than they were a year ago, they're still going to face an uphill battle against their tougher non-conference foes, and Belmont certainly falls into that category. These teams actually met last season with Belmont prevailing by nine points on the road. Evansville knocked down 11 threes compared to Belmont's four on that night to keep the game competitive. It also turned the ball over only 11 times. Here, the Purple Aces check in having turned it over 28 times through two contests. Look for Belmont to apply the pressure and ultimately pull away for a comfortable victory on Saturday, noting that the Bruins are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games following an ATS loss, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 18.3 points in that situation. Take Belmont (6*). |
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11-13-21 | Southern Miss v. UTSA -33 | 17-27 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on UTSA minus the points over Southern Miss at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We went against Southern Miss last Saturday and were rewarded with a lopsided North Texas victory as the Mean Green Eagles easily covered the short pointspread. Here, we're dealing with a much larger spread, but also a much bigger mismatch. Southern Miss' season is circling the drain and has been for the last two months. The Golden Eagles have lost seven straight games both SU and ATS. Their lone victory this season came against FCS opponent Grambling in a game they were favored by more than three touchdowns. UTSA is enjoying a dream season, reeling off nine straight victories while going 8-1 ATS along the way. The Roadrunners have been explosive on offense, averaging 4.6 yards per rush and 8.2 yards per pass attempt while also dominating the conference defensively, giving up just 2.7 yards per rush. They have been somewhat vulnerable against the pass, giving up 7.2 yards per pass attempt but Southern Miss is unlikely to take advantage, noting that the Eagles have 41-of-82 (50%) of their passes for only 332 yards over their last three games and that stretch included a pair of weak defensive teams in Middle Tennessee State and North Texas. I see this as an ideal spot to fade Southern Miss once again as it comes off a rare game where it didn't turn the football over. On the flip side, UTSA didn't force a single turnover in last week's rout of UTEP after forcing at least two in each of its previous six contests. Take UTSA (9*). |
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11-13-21 | Rutgers v. Indiana -7 | Top | 38-3 | Loss | -101 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
CFB Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Rutgers at 12 noon et on Saturday. Few teams have faced a tougher schedule than Indiana this season. Save for a Week 2 home date against Idaho - a game the Hoosiers won 56-14 - Indiana has gone up against the best the Big Ten has to offer including matchups with Iowa, Penn State, Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan. Even the Hoosiers non-conference tilts - aside from the game against Idaho - have been difficult as the Hoosiers faced Cincinnati and Western Kentucky, winning the latter contest. Now the Hoosiers finally get a break as they host Rutgers on Saturday afternoon. The Scarlet Knights have just one win in their last six games and that came against one of the Big Ten's worst teams, Illinois. Rutgers got beat down physically in last week's 52-3 rout at Wisconsin. It has now been held to 13 points or less in five of its last six games. This series hasn't been particularly close with Indiana taking five straight meetings, with the last two coming by a combined 72-21 margin in 2019-2020. While it could be argued that the Hoosiers have nothing to play for at this point with their Bowl hopes having already been dashed, they should relish the role of playing spoiler as they can strike a major blow to the Scarlet Knights Bowl aspirations with a victory on Saturday. Keep in mind, Indiana has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home favorite going back to last season, outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 35.1 points on average in that situation. Take Indiana (10*). |
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11-13-21 | East Carolina v. Memphis OVER 59 | 30-29 | Push | 0 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between East Carolina and Memphis at 12 noon et on Saturday. The 'under' has cashed in each of East Carolina's last four games and each of Memphis' last three contests entering Saturday's matchup between these two AAC squads. I expect a different story to unfold here as this contest has serious shootout potential. East Carolina has benefited from playing from ahead in the last couple of weeks, rolling to lopsided wins over South Florida and Temple. I'm not sure the Pirates will be so fortunate here and fully expect them to be bombing away for much of the afternoon. Game script has allowed the Memphis defense to hold up just fine in recent weeks but I still consider that unit to be among the weakest in the conference, perhaps even the country. Keep in mind, this is the same Tigers squad that gave up 50 points against Arkansas State and 34 points against Temple earlier this season. Meanwhile, the Memphis offense has been held down by Central Florida and SMU over the last two contests but should bust loose here, noting that East Carolina has allowed 5.0 yards per rush and 8.1 yards per pass play on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-12-21 | Wyoming v. Boise State UNDER 48.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 54 h 16 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Wyoming and Boise State at 9 pm et on Friday. Few pay much attention to the Wyoming Cowboys and perhaps rightfully so at this point as they've fizzled with four losses in their last five games. For those that are paying attention, though, they know that the Cowboys can play some defense. That unit has remained healthy this season and it's loaded with experience and talent. The results on the field have bared that out as they've allowed 27 points or less in all but one of their games (consider that wild 50-43 victory over Northern Illinois back in Week 2 an aberration). They're allowing only 4.2 yards per rush and a staggering 5.7 yards per pass attempt. Boise State certainly offers a stiff challenge after putting up 40 points on the road against Fresno State last time out but it's not as if the Broncos have been consistently lighting up the scoreboard this season. Note that Boise State has been held to 28 points or less in five of its last seven games. The Broncos enter this contest playing some of their best defensive football of the season, having held three of their last four opponents under 20 points. Not surprisingly, the 'under' cashed in all four of those games. Wyoming hasn't taken major strides forward offensively this season and we know the Broncos can contain that unit, noting that they've allowed a grand total of just 54 points in the last four meetings in this series. Both teams like to run the football, which obviously helps keep the clock moving and supports our cause with the 'under'. Note that Wyoming checks in having topped out at 15 pass completions in a game this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 54-35 in Wyoming's last 89 games a road underdog and 61-40 in Boise State's last 101 contests as a home favorite. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Blackhawks | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Friday. The Coyotes have been a mess this season. They enter Friday's game off another lopsided loss - this one coming in a nationally-televised game against the Wild (we won with the 'over' in that game). I do expect them to put up a fight against the Blackhawks on Friday, however. I don't believe the Coyotes are as bad as they've looked so far this season. Here, we'll note that Arizona has allowed just 1.6 goals on average the last 13 times it has come off consecutive games in which it allowed four goals or more, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that spot. On the flip side, the Blackhawks check in giving up 3.5 goals on average after holding consecutive opponents to two goals or less over the last 2+ seasons. Arizona is also a solid 8-2 the last 10 times it has played on the road off a home loss, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks are a woeful 5-14 in their last 19 home games after winning two of their last three contests, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. You would have to go back five meetings in this series to find the last time the Blackhawks defeated the Coyotes by two goals or more. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (6*). |
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11-12-21 | Blazers -6.5 v. Rockets | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Blazers have yet to register a victory on the road this season but they've also faced some pretty tough opposition. This game against Houston marks their best chance at a road win and I expect them to come up big. Here, we'll note that the Rockets are a woeful 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points, outscored by 10.7 points on average in that situation. They're also a miserable 1-12 ATS in their last 13 home games after scoring 105 points or less in their last contest, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 14.5 points in that spot. Last time out, the Rockets held the Pistons to 43.3% shooting and turned the ball over only 13 times - well below their season-average of 19 - yet still lost by eight points in a game where they closed as a three-point favorite. I simply feel it will be a case of the Rockets being in the wrong place at the wrong time as they face a Blazers squad that will be looking to take its frustrations out on Friday night. Take Portland (7*). |
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11-12-21 | Hamilton v. Toronto OVER 44 | Top | 12-31 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair on Friday night in Toronto. Hamilton's scores have quietly been creeping up as it has seen back-to-back and three of its last four games overall go 'over' the total. The Ti-Cats should be able to find plenty of offensive success in this one, especially when you consider the Argos will be without their defensive anchor in Charleston Hughes. The Argos defense has held up alright in the last two games but that was against two severely limited offenses in B.C. and Ottawa. Here, Toronto will be taking a step up in class against a Hamilton offense that has been led by a passing game that has completed 86 of its last 114 passes (75%) for right around 1,300 yards over the last four games alone. On the flip side, we have seen the Argos offense exceed expectations somewhat (at least my expectations) with QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson taking over the reins following Nick Arbuckle's departure. The Argos offense will get some help with the return of underrated RB D.J. Foster on Friday as well. Note that Toronto has put up at least 23 points in five of its last six games overall and has attempted 38 or more passes in each of its last four games. With the last two meetings in this series staying under the 50-point mark, there's reason to believe we'll see some positive regression to the mean here, noting that we haven't seen three straight matchups between these rivals stay under 50 since back in 2017. Take the over (10*). |
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11-12-21 | Capitals -125 v. Blue Jackets | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Blue Jackets are rolling along right now, riding a season-long three-game winning streak. However, they haven't played since last Saturday. I'm not sure an extended layoff was what they wanted after such a solid stretch of hockey. Here, we'll note that the Jackets have averaged just 1.8 goals and been outscored by 0.6 goals on average the last nine times they've played on three or more days' rest, as is the case here. Now they welcome the Capitals to Columbus on Friday night, noting that Washington has posted back-to-back victories following a three-game slide. Last night's narrow 2-0 win in Detroit was somewhat misleading as the Caps dominated that game, allowing only 21 shots on goal in the shutout victory. I like the way they're set up here as they'll face Blue Jackets goaltender Joonas Korpisalo (Columbus plays again at home against the Rangers tomorrow night). Korpisalo has performed reasonably well this season but there is certainly a gap between he and number one goaltender Elvis Merzlikins, who has recorded a stellar .940 save percentage this season, leading the Jackets to five wins in his six starts. By contrast, Columbus has only managed to split Korpisalo's four starts to date. After winning consecutive games the Blue Jackets have been outscored by an average margin of 0.4 goals in their next contest over the last 2+ seasons (24-game sample size), as is the case here. Take Washington (5*). |
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11-12-21 | Eastern Washington v. UC-Davis -8 | 76-84 | Push | 0 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cal-Davis minus the points over Eastern Washington at 5 pm et on Friday. Credit Eastern Washington for putting up 76 points in its season-opener against Nevada but it still fell by 15 points in that game and I'm not convinced we'll see the Eagles improve on that losing margin by much in this one. It's going to be an uphill battle early on for EWU this season as few programs in the country have had to endure more roster turnover. Now the Eagles face exactly the type of team you don't want to see with a new-look lineup out of the gate as Cal-Davis plays a frenetic style of defense that will press for a full 40 minutes. That pesky defense led the Aggies to a big 72-69 upset win over Utah State in their season-opener. They secured the win despite shooting sub-40% from the field and knocking down just 6-of-21 three-point attempts. That's pretty much par for the course for a team that is never going to be known for its sharp-shooting. Cal-Davis will once again rely on hoisting up shots and crashing the boards and should find some success doing so against an EWU squad that is extremely vulnerable as it tries to work so many new pieces into the rotation. Note that the Eagles forced just nine turnovers in their opener. I'm not sure we can expect them to shoot better than the 43.9% they posted against Nevada and certainly anticipate them turning the ball over more than the 14 times they did in that contest. Look for an experienced Aggies squad to take another stride forward on Friday afternoon. Take Cal-Davis (10*). |
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11-11-21 | Heat v. Clippers -3.5 | 109-112 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Miami at 10:40 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way the Clippers are playing right now, finding their way after a tough start to the season. They check into tonight's contest riding a five-game winning streak, having scored 120 and 117 points in the first two games of their current homestand. They're catching the Heat in the right place at the right time tonight as Miami has gotten off to a tough 0-2 start to its current road trip, suffering consecutive emotional losses against the Nuggets and Lakers. I'm not convinced the Heat can simply flip the switch after shooting 39.7% and 41.7% in their last two games and now facing a solid Clippers defense. Note that Miami is a woeful 4-13 ATS when coming off consecutive losses going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 5.2 points in that situation. You would have to go back six meetings in this series all the way to December of 2018 to find the last time Miami managed to post a victory (0-5 SU and ATS last five meetings). Take Los Angeles (9*). |
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11-11-21 | Cal-Riverside v. Arizona State UNDER 142 | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between UC-Riverside and Arizona State at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. Expectations are fairly high for both of these teams although Arizona State certainly boasts the loftier goals. The Sun Devils are hoping that a number of key transfers can help them rebound from a disastrous Covid-tinged 2020-21 season. Meanwhile, Riverside is hoping to build on the progress it made during a big 'step up' campaign last season. The Highlanders will once again hang their hats on their defensive play, which should be every bit as sound as it was a year ago. They drew a tough season-opening matchup on Tuesday but still managed to hold their own, allowing only 66 points while limiting San Diego State to 49 field goal attempts. The problem was their own three-point shots weren't falling (6-of-22 from three-point range) in an eventual 13-point loss as a 12.5-point underdog. Arizona State will look to play fast, just as it always has under Bobby Hurley. I do think the Highlanders are capable of frustrating the Sun Devils a bit in that regard though. Like Riverside, Arizona State struggled from beyond the arc in its season-opener, knocking down only 7-of-26 three-point attempts. The Sun Devils ultimately scored 76 points against Portland on Tuesday, but only managed to do so thanks to hoisting up 66 shots - a number I'm not convinced they can approach here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina +7 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 23-30 | Push | 0 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
CFB ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on North Carolina plus the points over Pittsburgh at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Tar Heels are coming off their biggest win of the season last Saturday as they rallied to defeat Wake Forest, essentially keeping their hopes of reaching a Bowl game alive. Riding the high of that comeback victory, I think getting right back on the field on a short week is the best thing for the Tar Heels right now. They're in desperate need of a spark having yet to post consecutive wins this season but I think they have a shot at it here. Pitt hasn't traditionally had an overwhelming home field advantage, playing its home games at an NFL stadium in Heinz Field. The Panthers have already lost two home games this season, against MAC squad Western Michigan and a bumbling Miami Hurricanes team. Here, Pitt will be looking to register a second straight win over North Carolina after defeating the Tar Heels back in 2019. Wins have been few-and-far-between for the Panthers in this series, however, and I believe they'll be hard-pressed to win, let alone cover the lofty pointspread here. Here, we'll note that North Carolina is 34-17 ATS the last 51 times it has come off four or five ATS losses in its last six games, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.8 points in that situation. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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11-11-21 | Islanders v. Devils UNDER 5.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring affairs. I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. The Islanders collapsed in the third period in Sunday's 5-2 loss to the Wild (we won with Minnesota in that game). If you know the Islanders and their style of play under head coach Barry Trotz, you know that they'll be determined to tighten things up in advance of Thursday's game against the Devils. Keep in mind, they last time they allowed five goals in a game this season, they followed that up with a 4-1 win in Chicago. This game sets up similarly. Here, the Devils check in off consecutive wins including a wild 7-3 victory over the Panthers (who were in a tough back-to-back spot with their backup goaltender forced to start both games) on Tuesday night. That sets New Jersey up in a spot here where it has gone 0-10 the last 10 times it has come off consecutive wins, averaging just 1.8 goals in that situation. Ordinarily, the Devils have a tendency to give up a lot of goals in that situation - an average of 4.4 to be exact. However, I'm not sure the Isles are well-positioned to take advantage offensively here. New York has averaged just 1.8 goals itself when playing on the road off a loss by three goals or more going back to last season (11-game sample size). The 'under' is 23-9 with the Isles coming off a loss by two goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. You would have to go all the way back to January of 2018 to find the last time these two teams combined to score more than five goals in a game here in Newark. Take the under (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Wild v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. After being held to a grand total of three goals over a five-game stretch we saw the Coyotes finally break out and earn their first win of the season in the process in their most recent game - a 5-4 victory over the expansion Kraken on Saturday. They've now scored 10 goals in three home games this season and I believe they're well-positioned to contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total on Wednesday as well. Minnesota has had no such problems scoring goals. In fact, the Wild check in having won three straight games, scoring 13 goals in regulation time along the way. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 the last nine times the Wild have come off a win by three goals or more, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. We've seen Minnesota allow an ugly 3.9 goals on average the last 21 times they've come off a home win by two goals or more. The Coyotes on the other hand have posted a 24-13 o/u record after losing three of their last four games over the last 2+ seasons, with an average total of 6.0 goals in that spot. Arizona averages 3.2 goals when playing at home after giving up four goals or more in its most recent contest going back to last season as well. Of course, the 'Yotes have had major issues between the pipes this season. They've already used four different goaltenders and none of them have fared all that well. On the flip side, the Wild haven't been all that stout at the back end either. Cam Talbot has been the better of their goaltending duo but even he owns a less than impressive .904 save percentage. The most recent meeting in this series totaled just five goals here in Arizona last April. To find the last time consecutive meetings in Arizona stayed 'under' six total goals you would have to go back to a stretch between December 2015 and April 2017 - that's going back eight meetings here in the desert. Take the over (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Blazers v. Suns OVER 222.5 | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' between Portland and Phoenix at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the Blazers loss against the Clippers in Los Angeles last night. Here, we'll switch gears a little bit and play the first half 'over' only, out of respect for the Suns coaching and their advantage of catching Portland in a back-to-back spot. There's certainly a chance we see Phoenix make the necessary adjustments at halftime and for the Blazers offense to fade in the second half in this spot - at least I believe that's well within the realm of possibility on Wednesday. Damian Lillard wasn't happy with the officiating in last night's game, or this season in general. He feels he's not getting the calls he should be. I would certainly expect him to come out aggressively against the Suns on Wednesday and I do think he'll get some of those calls he's been pining for. The Suns are of course without DeAndre Ayton but did manage to post a 109-104 victory in Sacramento on Monday. We have seen them consistently get off to slow starts defensively, allowing 59, 61, 58 and 64 points in the first half of their last four contests. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 38-21 in the first half with the Blazers having won two of their last three games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 119.2 points. Meanwhile, the Suns have posted a 15-5 o/u mark in the first half going back to last season when coming off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here, producing an average total of 115.8 points. Take the first half over (8*). |
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11-10-21 | Predators v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. Last week I talked at length about how the Stars could see their o/u record start to reverse course toward the 'over' after a string of eight consecutive 'under' results to start the season. We saw just that as each of their last three games went 'over' the total. I expect a return to 'normal' as they return home on Wednesday to host the Predators, however. The Preds have posted a 4-8 o/u mark so far this season. Interestingly, if you only consider games where they've followed up at least two days off, the 'under' has gone a perfect 3-0. That's the case here as they've been idle since Sunday in Chicago. Here, we'll note that the Stars have posted a 1-10 o/u mark in their last 11 home games when coming off a road loss, resulting in an average total of only 4.4 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also a solid 24-11 the last 35 times they've come off three losses in their last four games, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.3 goals in that situation. As for the Preds, they've had a tendency to get involved in tighter, lower-scoring games as road trips wear on, having posted a 6-16 o/u mark when playing on the road off two or more consecutive road games going back to last season. That spot has produced an average total of 5.0 goals and is already a perfect 2-0 to the 'under' on their current road trip. The last two meetings between these two teams in Dallas did go 'over' the total. We haven't seen three straight matchups in Big D between the Preds and Stars go 'over' since back in 2018-2019. Take the under (8*). |
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11-10-21 | Kent State +3 v. Central Michigan | 30-54 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Central Michigan at 8 pm et on Wednesday. We haven't been involved with a side in any Kent State game since back in late September when we faded the Golden Flashes in a road game against Maryland. The Terps rolled to a three-touchdown win on that day. That wrapped up a tough two-game trip that saw the Flashes face Iowa as well. Since taking their lumps in those two blowout losses, we've seen the Flashes take off, going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in MAC play. I look for them to improve on those records here. Central Michigan is in an ideal fade spot coming off a big upset win on the road against Northern Illinois last week. The Chippewas were buoyed by a pair of punt return touchdowns from do-it-all WR Khalil Pimpleton after falling behind by two touchdowns early on. I'm more confident in Kent State's ability to keep its foot on the gas should it build a lead in this one. It's hard not to like what head coach Sean Lewis has done with the Flashes since taking over three years ago. Since going 2-10 in his first season, Kent State has now gone 15-11 SU over its last 26 games, including a win in the Frisco Bowl in 2019 (no Bowl eligibility last year as Kent State played only four games due to Covid). With a win here the Flashes can become Bowl eligible once again. Note that Kent State is as healthy as any team in the country right now and I'm confident we'll see it step up in this big conference road tilt on Wednesday, noting that home field advantage has meant little in this series going way back over the years with the road team winning five of the last seven meetings. Take Kent State (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Nets v. Magic OVER 209.5 | Top | 123-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Ordinarily I might consider this to be a potential flat spot for the Nets as they play in a three-in-four situation on the road against the lowly Magic. However, here Brooklyn checks in off an ugly blowout loss in Chicago - a game in which it scored only 95 points and shot worse than 40% from the field. This looks like an ideal bounce-back spot offensively after the Nets scored 122, 129 and 113 points in three meetings with Orlando last season. The Magic have been marauding as a good defensive team lately, holding five straight opponents to 44.4% shooting or worse, while giving up more than 102 points only once over that stretch. I don't believe that run of success is sustainable, however. Keep in mind, in their first six games this season, the Magic allowed four opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and three of those teams to score 120+ points. Orlando's last 46 games as a home underdog have totaled an average of 216.5 total points. The fact that the Magic have seen each of their last four games stay 'under' the total while the Nets have posted a 2-9 o/u mark this season is what is keeping this total in a very reasonable range. Note that last year's three matchups between these teams each saw closing totals of 225.5 points or higher and all three contests surpassed the total we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Buffalo +15.5 v. Michigan | Top | 76-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Michigan at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. Expectations are sky-high once again in Ann Arbor this season and the Wolverines are certainly a legitimate national title contender. With that being said, I do think an experienced, ultra-talented Buffalo squad is capable of giving them a run here in their season-opener on Wednesday. The Bulls could turn out to be 'best in class' in the MAC this season although Ohio may have something to say about that. This is an excellent measuring stick game right out of the gate and I expect the Bulls to relish the opportunity. Four starters return to Buffalo and Jim Whitesell's group should once again push the pace at every opportunity, perhaps catching the Wolverines a little off guard here in the first game of the season. Keep in mind, for as dominant as Michigan was last season, it opened the campaign by winning home games against Bowling Green and Oakland by just 14 and 10-point margins, respectively. In time, the Wolverines should once again evolve into an elite rim and perimeter defending team but Buffalo is a tough opening draw before it has a chance to settle in, especially with plenty of new faces in the lineup. While Buffalo is known for its up-tempo, explosive offense, it can play some defense as well. In fact, the Bulls were the best defensive squad in the MAC last year. Last season's MAC Defensive Player of the Year, Josh Mballa is back in the fold to anchor the Bulls defensive sets. While a 1-0 start should be well within reach for the Wolverines, this should be a test. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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11-09-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Golden Knights -135 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over Seattle at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Golden Knights are coming off an inexplicable 5-2 loss to the lowly Red Wings in Detroit on Sunday and I think that has a lot of bettors a little spooked to back them as they return home to host the expansion Kraken on Tuesday. We won't shy away, however. You could argue that the Knights essentially 'punted' that game in Detroit, starting backup goaltender Laurent Brossoit in what was a second of back-to-back and three-in-four situation. Prior to that contest Vegas had won consecutive games in Ottawa and Montreal, scoring 10 goals in the process. Despite Sunday's loss, I don't think the Knights will be returning home hanging their heads having won five of their last seven overall. Like most expansion teams, the Kraken have struggled to win games or even stay competitive on the road. They check in 1-6 on the road this season, outscored by 1.7 goals on average. Here, we'll note that the Knights have gone 15-4 when coming off a road loss by three goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. They also check in allowing just 2.1 goals on average the last 22 times they've come off a game in which they gave up 5+ goals. While they're still missing a number of key players due to injury, that's certainly been factored into this price. Take Vegas (10*). |
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11-09-21 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 220 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've already seen two matchups between these two teams this season with both of those games staying 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Keep in mind, in both of those previous meetings the winning team scored more than 110 points. Last season's three meetings totaled 233, 249 and 225 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 19-7 with the Blazers coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last 2+ seasons and here they're coming off four straight 'unders'. That situation has produced an average total of 232.4 points. Better still, the 'over' is 33-17 with Portland playing on the road off a win over the same stretch, resulting in an average total of 233.9 points in that spot. As for the Clippers, they've averaged 117.5 points when playing at home with the total set at 220 points or higher over the last 2+ seasons, producing an average total of 225.5 points. Keeping in mind we saw a closing total of 230.5 points the first time these two teams met this season and the fact that we have regression to the mean factors at play when it comes to the Blazers offense and defense (they're coming off their lowest-scoring game of the season) and the Clippers defense (they held struggling Charlotte to 40.6% shooting last time out), I believe Tuesday's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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11-09-21 | Blues v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Blues most recent game - a 4-1 loss in Anaheim on Sunday night. St. Louis jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the first minute of that game but never scored again in a lopsided defeat. The Blues know they'll need to be better offensively if they're going to salvage anything from the finale of this four-game road trip in Winnipeg on Tuesday night. As I've noted before, the 'over' is now 21-12 with the Blues coming off an 'under' result going back to last season, producing an average total of 6.7 goals in that spot. While St. Louis is now missing Brayden Schenn and Torey Krug, it recently welcomed back Ryan O'Reilly from Covid protocol. As for the Jets, they were shut out by the Islanders on home ice on Saturday. That sets us up well for a high-scoring affair here, noting that the 'over' has gone 13-5 the last 18 times the Jets have come off a game in which they scored one goal or less, resulting in an average total of 6.6 goals in that situation. You would have to go back three meetings here in Winnipeg to find the last time a game between these two teams stayed 'under' the total. Also note that the last time Connor Hellebuyck didn't start a game in this series, we saw 12 total goals in a wild 8-4 Jets victory. Hellebuyck is questionable to play on Tuesday as he continues to deal with an illness. Even if he can go, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring contest. Take the over (8*). |
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11-09-21 | Akron v. Western Michigan -25.5 | Top | 40-45 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Western Michigan minus the points over Akron at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I love the way this one sets up for a disappointing Western Michigan squad as it looks to bounce back from a tough home loss against Central Michigan and earn Bowl eligibility in the process. While the season hasn't gone quite as planned for the Broncos, there's no reason to hang their heads here. They quite simply ran into arguably the MAC's best player in Khalil Pimpleton last week as he went off and single-handedly took over the game, scoring three touchdowns including two on punt returns after the Broncos had built an early 14-0 lead. Here, Western Michigan is in a perfect bounce-back spot against a hapless Akron squad that it handled by a 58-13 score, on the road no less, last season. The Zips are coming off a hard-fought six point home loss against Ball State last week. They turned in a near-perfect offensive performance, by their standards anyway, but still couldn't get it done. Keep in mind, they entered the fourth quarter down by 18 points in that contest and it certainly seemed like Ball State got complacent. I don't expect the Broncos to fall into the same trap here as they'll be looking to take out their frustrations on both side of the football and should have little difficulty doing just that. This is a Western Michigan team that is only a couple of games removed from a 64-31 rout of Kent State. It also went on the road and won at Pittsburgh earlier this season. Akron, meanwhile, has a lopsided 21-point loss to an awful Temple team on its resume this season and has given up a whopping 110 points in its last three games despite facing limited offenses in Miami-Ohio, Buffalo and Ball State. Take Western Michigan (10*). |
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11-09-21 | St. Peter's v. VCU UNDER 132.5 | 54-57 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Peter's and VCU and 6 pm et on Tuesday. St. Peter's returns all five starters from last year's team including defensive standout KC Ndefo and should prove to be a tricky season-opening non-conference opponent for VCU on Tuesday. The Peacocks ranked eighth in the country in defensive rating last season and will hang their hat on their play at the end of the floor again here in 2021-22. That's because their offense remains severely limited, noting they finished T233rd in pace rating and T324th in field goal percentage last season and don't figure to show a big improvement. This is certainly a tough season-opening draw for St. Peter's as well with VCU coming off a season that saw it finish 15th in the country in defensive rating and sixth in steals. While there are major questions in the backcourt, especially after losing Bones Hyland to the NBA and Ace Baldwin to a devastating ruptured achilles in the offseason, the Rams mantra will remain the same and that means playing a high-pressure brand of defense and being physical on offense, waiting for its opportunities to get to the rim rather than relying on outside shooting. The latter can result in draining the shot clock, and I'm confident Ndefo and the Peacocks will make them work for every basket down low. Both of these teams were comfortable playing games in the 110's and 120's last season and I would expect nothing different as they work out the kinks in Tuesday's season-opener. Take the under (10*). |
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11-08-21 | Heat v. Nuggets +2.5 | Top | 96-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Miami at 9:10 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up for the Nuggets as they host the Heat on Monday night. Miami will be playing its fourth game in the last seven nights, in three different cities. The Heat needed every bit of their blistering 60.3% shooting performance to take down the Jazz at home on Saturday, ultimately winning that game by three points. It's worth noting that Miami was favored by a virtually identical pointspread to tonight in its last road game against Dallas. In that situation, the Heat were playing on two days' rest and keep in mind, that's the same Mavs squad that the Nuggets beat by 31 points earlier this season. Here, I like the fact that the Heat are in line for some offensive regression following that ridiculous shooting performance on Saturday while the Nuggets are coming off a sleepy effort against the lowly Rockets in which they shot just 40.4% in a matinee affair on Saturday. Michael Porter Jr. is expected to miss this game for Denver but he's been somewhat disappointing this season anyway, topping out at 15 points and that came in the season-opener. Note that the Nuggets are 31-14 ATS the last 45 times they've come off three consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.2 points in that situation. Take Denver (10*). |
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