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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-11-22 | Miami-FL v. Duke OVER 147.5 | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Duke at 7 pm et on Friday. This one has all the makings of a track meet as Duke heads into this game riding a four-game 'over' streak while Miami has shot a blistering 50%+ from the field in five consecutive games. The Hurricanes are absolutely locked-in offensively right now, making good on 28+ field goals in eight straight games, albeit boosted by overtime yesterday against Boston College. On the flip side, the Canes aren't really slowing anyone down, allowing 28+ made field goals in three of their last four games and now run into a juggernaut in the Blue Devils. Duke has knocked down 35, 32, 34 and 32 field goals over its last four games, scoring more than 80 points in all four contests. Like Miami, though, Duke has done little to slow opponents down, yielding 27+ made field goals in five of its last seven games. The Blue Devils last two opponents have gotten off 68 and 67 FG attempts. In the lone regular season matchup between these two teams Miami pulled off a stunning 76-74 upset win at Cameron Indoor. That game saw 150 total points despite the two teams hitting only 10 three-pointers (they average 15 per game combined this season) and combining for only 28 free throw attempts (they average 34 FT attempts per game combined). Take the over (8*). |
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03-11-22 | Creighton v. Providence -3 | 85-58 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Providence minus the points over Creighton at 6:30 pm et on Friday. Providence narrowly escaped with a four-point win over Butler last night but I expect it to 'get right' and move on with a more convincing win over Creighton on Friday. The Friars are locked-in defensively right now, allowing just 18, 23 and 22 made field goals over their last three games. While Creighton obviously poses a challenge, I expect Providence to be up for it, noting that it held the Blue Jays to just 18 made field goals including only five from beyond the arc in a 72-51 win in the lone regular season matchup between the two teams. Offensively, we saw the Friars get bogged down against a Butler team that can be very frustrating to play against last night, knocking down only 20 field goals on 54 attempts but it was still enough to get into the 60's and secure the win. Here, I think the Friars will prefer the pace the Blue Jays play at, noting that Creighton has allowed opponents to get off 64+ field goal attempts in six of its last nine games. The Blue Jays have yielded 35, 33, 28, 27, 27 and 23 made field goals over their last six games. Creighton's offense has been rather uneven lately, hitting just 18, 27, 21 and 28 field goals over its last four contests. I'm just not sure it will get enough opportunities to keep within arm's reach here, noting that Providence allows just 24 made field goals and only six from beyond the arc per game away from home this season. Take Providence (8*). |
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03-11-22 | Creighton v. Providence OVER 130.5 | Top | 85-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Big East Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Creighton and Providence at 6:30 pm et on Friday. Creighton enters this game on the heels of four straight 'under' results - a streak that started with a 72-51 road loss against Providence. That low-scoring recent matchup is serving to give us a lower posted total for this rematch. I believe it will prove too low. Note that Creighton made good on only 18 field goals in that contest, including just four from beyond the arc. While Providence can obviously be tough to break down defensively, the Blue Jays do check in averaging 26 made field goals including seven from beyond the arc per game away from home this season. There's reason to believe they can show at least some improvement offensively in this one. Defensively, it's another matter entirely. The Blue Jays have had no success slowing opposing offenses. Going back to February 20th, they've yielded 35, 33, 28, 27, 27 and 23 made field goals over their last six games. Providence shot 28-of-59 against them four games back. Here, the Friars check in off a poor offensive showing against a frustrating Butler squad last night, making good on only 20 field goals but still managing to score 65 points in a four-point victory. Prior to that, the Friars had hit at least 25 field goals in six straight games, scoring 70+ points in all six of those contests. Take the over (10*). |
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03-11-22 | St Etienne v. Lille OSC OVER 2 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Ligue 1 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Lille and St-Etienne at 3 pm et on Friday. Lille has been involved in its share of low-scoring contests lately but did bust out with a 4-0 victory over Clermont last time out and that's certainly something it can build on here as it hosts St-Etienne with eyes on one of the coveted top-five spots in the Ligue 1 table. Of course, St-Etienne is in a different battle entirely as it tries to avoid relegation, currently sitting just one point clear of 18th-place Lorient. St-Etienne is coming off a 1-0 victory over Metz last weekend in a match that wasn't really as close as the final score indicated. The margin likely could have been 3-4 goals were it not for a lack of execution or simply bad luck as St-Etienne carried the play and fired 13 shots at the Metz goal with five of them reaching target (not to mention a couple of posts). Concerning for St-Etienne here is the absence of a number of key defenders in a match it was going to have its hands full in regardless with Lille striker Jonathan David snapping his goal drought last time out and poised to build from that here. With both teams showing encouraging signs in their most recent match, and both desperate for points, albeit for much different reasons, I look for St-Etienne's trend of both teams scoring (four of its last five) and 'over' 2.5 total goals being scored (also four of its last five) to continue on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-22 | Washington v. USC OVER 141.5 | Top | 61-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Pac-12 Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and USC at 11:30 pm et on Thursday. Washington enters this game having seen the 'over' cash in five of its last six and 11 of its last 13 games overall. USC, meanwhile, has posted a 3-1 o/u record over its last four games. Washington didn't do much to stop the Utah offense in last night Pac-12 Tournament opener, but prevailed thanks to its own offense pouring in 82 points on 30 made field goals. The Huskies have now allowed 26 or more made field goals in nine of their last 11 games, including back on February 17th when they allowed the same USC squad they'll face tonight knock down 30-of-62 attempts from the field in a 79-69 loss. There was really nothing special that got that contest 'over' the total. In fact, it was an off night for the Washington offense as they could only make good on 22-of-60 field goal attempts. The Huskies were mired in a scoring slump at that time - a stretch that saw them knock down just 21, 22 and 18 field goals in consecutive games. Here, Washington enters having hit 25 or more field goals in six straight games and 32 and 30 in its last two contests. USC has been hot as well, knocking down 33, 26, 27 and 25 field goals over its last four games. The pace didn't necessarily dictate all that high-scoring of performances over its last few games but here I suspect we'll have to combatants willing to go up and down the floor. Neither has shown any consistent ability or interest in slowing down their opponents tempo. While we are dealing with a higher posted total than we saw for the first meeting this season, I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-22 | Sharks v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Jose and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. I love the way this one sets up as a high-scoring game in Los Angeles on Thursday. The Sharks have been held to a grand total of three goals over their last three games. That's notable as that has happened three times previous this season and on those three occasions, in their next game they've scored 5, 6 and 4 goals with those three contests totalling 8, 9 and 9 goals. Here, San Jose catches Los Angeles back home after an eastern road swing. Note that the Kings have actually been a weaker defensive team at home than on the road this season, allowing 3.0 goals per game here in Los Angeles. There's a good chance we'll see Jonathan Quick in goal for the Kings after Cal Petersen started the last two games. Quick has been awful lately, posting a .876 save percentage over his last four starts with the 'over' cashing at a 3-1 clip along the way. Meanwhile, Petersen owns a less than impressive .902 save percentage in 11 home starts with the 'over' cashing at a 7-4 clip. The Sharks have already announced they'll give Zach Sawchenko his second straight start. He held up alright against the Ducks last time out but is likely to get peppered here, noting that the Kings average just shy of 37 shots per game on home ice this season. Here, we'll note that San Jose has allowed a ridiculous 5.4 goals per game with an average total of 8.3 goals when coming off a loss against a division opponent this season, as is the case here. The 'over' has cashed seven of eight times that situation has come up. The 'over' is also 9-2 with San Jose coming off three straight games in which it scored two goals or less over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 7.9 goals in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 226.5 | 113-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Nuggets win in Sacramento last night and also cashed with the Warriors in their most recent game - a victory over the Clippers on Tuesday. Here, I'll stick with the 'under' as Golden State and Denver match up for the second time in the last four nights. The Warriors saw their four-game 'over' streak come to an end in that win over the Clippers two nights ago. Interestingly, the pace hadn't necessarily been there during their run of 'overs', allowing fewer than 90 field goal attempts in six straight games heading into that home date with L.A. The Clippers actually managed to get off 93 FG attempts against them on Tuesday but knocked down only 33 of them. Here, we'll note that Golden State yields just 39-of-86 shooting on the road this season with its games totalling an average of 217.3 points. The Nuggets have held four of their last five opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts and allow an average of only 86 attempts per game at home this season. They've allowed 38 or fewer made field goals in four of their last seven games overall with the 'under' going 4-3 along the way. Monday's matchup between these two teams reached a whopping 255 points but that one was played under unique circumstances as the Warriors elected to rest most of their starters and didn't play with a great deal of intensity. Keep in mind, these two teams have been involved in a game that totalled just 175 points this season, so the potential for a low-scoring affair is there despite the lofty total. Note that Monday's game saw a whopping 64 free throw attempts (46 of them made). The two teams average only 40 free throw attempts per game (and make 31 of them). While that doesn't make up for the difference considering the total we're working with here, I do think we'll see a little more defense helping keep this rematch 'under' the total. Take the under (9*). |
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03-10-22 | Lightning -115 v. Flames | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. The Lightning are in a prime bounce-back spot here off a 7-4 loss in Winnipeg two nights ago. Note that Tampa Bay has gone 57-22 when coming off a loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal on average in that situation. Better still, the Bolts are 33-10 when coming off a loss by 2+ goals over the same time frame. We've seen Tampa Bay average 4.6 goals per game and outscore opponents by 2.2 goals on nine previous occasions in which they've come off a road loss this season. Even better, in five games in which they've played on the road after a loss by 3+ goals this season, as is the case here, they've averaged a ridiculous 6.4 goals and outscored the opposition by an average margin of 4.2 goals. The Flames took full advantage of a favorable schedule in February but have cooled off recently. Calgary lost only once from January 24th until February 21st (a 13-game stretch) but has now dropped three of its last seven games since, including a 5-4 loss here at home against Washington two nights ago. Note that the Flames have allowed 4.3 goals per game and have been outscored by 1.5 goals on average on six previous occasions when they've sought revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they scored one goal or less this season, as is the case here after they dropped a 4-1 decision back on January 6th in Tampa. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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03-10-22 | South Florida +9.5 v. UCF | Top | 58-60 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
AAC Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over UCF at 7 pm et on Thursday. We missed badly with South Florida in its most recent game as it dropped an ugly 75-47 decision at Temple to close out the regular season last Sunday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Bulls here, however, as I do feel they're well-positioned to give Central Florida all it can handle on Thursday. Lost in that blowout defeat against Temple was the fact that the Bulls did once again hold up alright defensively (given the circumstances - with their offense unable to hit a shot), allowing just 22 made field goals on 56 attempts. USF has now yielded only 20, 22, 16, 19, 24 and 22 made field goals over its last six games. When a team plays like that, it makes it tough on the opponent to cover a lofty pointspread, as we're dealing with here. Keep in mind, prior to Sunday's game, the Bulls had shown some signs of life offensively, knocking down 20+ field goals in nine straight games and hitting 25, 23 and 25 in their last there - all ATS victories. I do think the Bulls can frustrate an average UCF offense here. The Knights are used to getting up into the 60's in terms of field goal attempts. The last two times they were held to fewer than 60 attempts they eked out a three-point win at home against East Carolina (as a nine-point favorite) and lost by one point at Tulsa (as a one-point favorite). The Knights have regularly been allowing opponents to get loose offensively, allowing 23 or more made field goals in six of their last eight games (no fewer than 22 over that period) after a stretch in late January-early February that saw them hold consecutive opponents to 22, 21 and 18. USF took the first meeting in this series this season in blowout fashion at home before a revenge-minded Knights squad returned the favor on their home floor. In the Bulls 19-point road loss to UCF on February 3rd, they knocked down only 18 field goals including only 2-of-13 attempts from three-point range. Meanwhile, UCF poured in 14 threes. The fact that the margin was 'only' 19 points was actually encouraging heading into this one as far as I'm concerned, as the Bulls really can't play any worse than they did on that occasion. Take South Florida (10*). |
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03-10-22 | Crvena Zvezda v. Rangers UNDER 2.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Rangers and Red Star Belgrade at 3 pm et on Thursday. We won with Rangers in the first leg and the 'over' in the second in the Scottish side's stunning upset over Borussia Dortmund (which was missing Erling Haaland) in the last stage of this tournament. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as I expect a much tighter affair to play out. Red Star enters this match on the heels of three consecutive clean sheets. In its last three 'away' matches in Europa League action it has only managed to find three goals while conceding only twice - both of those allowed goals coming in the second half. Rangers of course exploded for six goals in its two matches against Dortmund. I do think they'll have a much more difficult time breaking down Red Star, as strange as that may sound given Dortmund's stature in European football. In a matchup that could very well come down to 'away goals', I suspect we'll see both sides tighten up here, with neither having faced defeat in quite some time (Rangers are undefeated in their last nine while Red Star has won six matches in a row). Take the under (6*). |
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03-10-22 | Indiana v. Michigan OVER 136 | 74-69 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Michigan at 11:30 am et on Thursday. The lone regular season meeting between these two teams totalled 142 points and as a result we're dealing with a slightly higher posted total for this one. I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made, however. The Hoosiers haven't made life all that difficult on opposing offenses lately. Note that their opponents have made good on 26, 23, 27, 24 and 23 field goals over their last five games. At the face of it, those numbers don't look all bad. However, when you consider the Hoosiers yielded 58 or fewer field goal attempts in each of those five contests you see a different picture. Here, I do think Michigan will be able to push the pace a little bit. The Wolverines have had their own issues containing opposing offenses, giving up 27 or more made field goals in six of their last seven games. The only occasion where they didn't give up that number was last time out against Ohio State - a game in which the Buckeyes still shot a solid 24-of-50 from the field. On the flip side, the Michigan offense has been 'filling it up' lately, making good on 27 or more field goals in five straight games while getting off 60 and 68 FG attempts in its last two contests, showing a keen interest in pushing the tempo as I mentioned. Indiana should be a willing participant in an up-and-down affair here though, noting that despite playing at a slower pace, the Hoosiers have knocked down 28, 30, 23 and 26 field goals over their last four games, scoring 74, 84, 63 and 67 points along the way. Take the over (9*). |
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03-09-22 | Georgetown v. Seton Hall -10 | Top | 53-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
Big East Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Seton Hall minus the points over Georgetown at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. It's been an absolutely disastrous season for Patrick Ewing's Georgetown Hoyas. They do, however, enter the Big East Tournament having gone 4-2 ATS over their last six games. That's little consolation, of course, and only serves to give us the opportunity to back Seton Hall at a discount here, noting that the Pirates closed as 13.5-point favorites against the Hoyas just last week. The Pirates only won that game by five points as they turned in a poor 4-of-20 shooting effort from beyond the arc. I certainly anticipate improvement in that regard here, noting that the Pirates average seven made threes per game away from home this season while Georgetown gives up an average of nine. While the Hoyas did enjoy some late season pointspread success, the fact is they check in having given up 30, 30, 28, 30, 24, 23, 30, 28 and 35 made field goals over their last nine games. In other words, they were consistently awful at the defensive end of the floor. That's to go along with an offense that last knocked down more than 27 field goals in a game way back on December 18th - before the start of Big East play. On the flip side, Seton Hall had to learn to run their offense without PG Bryce Aiken down the stretch and did so nicely, securing five consecutive wins (4-1 ATS) leading up to this tournament. The Pirates made good on 25, 29, 28 and 27 field goals in their last four regular season games and while that's steady performance, I look for them to show some improvement in this mouth-watering matchup. It's defensively where Seton Hall has really shone. Opponents have had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone hitting them, with the Pirates yielding just 59, 54, 50, 57 and 54 field goal attempts during their five-game winning streak. The high-water mark was 59 and in that contest Seton Hall allowed DePaul to make only 19 of those attempts. Take Seton Hall (10*). |
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03-09-22 | Blazers v. Jazz UNDER 222 | 85-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Utah at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Consider this a 'load management' type of game for the Jazz. That doesn't mean that we're going to see them rest starters, certainly not after losing two of their last three games. I'm not just not convinced we're going to see Utah go flat out for four quarters in this one as it should only be a matter of time before it pulls away as a massive favorite against a reeling, injury-riddled Blazers squad. Note that the Jazz are just a day removed from a back-to-back set in Oklahoma City and Dallas and after tonight's game will look ahead to another back-to-back at San Antonio and then back home against Sacramento on Friday and Saturday. While the Jazz offense is terrific, they're not playing at all that fast of a pace, having attempted fewer than 90 field goals in eight of their last 10 games. They average just 86 field goal attempts per game at home this season. After allowing 135 points in the front half of their two-game set in Minnesota, the Blazers did hold the T'Wolves to 38-of-92 shooting in the rematch. Offensively, Portland is a train wreck right now. After a pre-trade deadline fire sale, the Blazers lost a number of key contributors to injury with Anfernee Simons the most recent to go down with a leg injury. Simons might be able to go tonight but I think there's a better chance the Blazers give him another night off in this game they're highly-unlikely to win. Note that Portland has had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down lately, hoisting up 85 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six games, reaching just 78 in two of those contests. They've made good on a woeful 31, 34, 30, 40 (in a game where Simons poured in 38 points against Minnesota) and 23 field goals over their last five contests. Take the under (8*). |
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03-09-22 | Nuggets v. Kings UNDER 240 | Top | 106-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter Wednesday's game on the heels of consecutive 'over' results. Not surprisingly we're dealing with a very high total for this matchup. I believe it will prove too high. The pace hasn't necessarily been there during Denver's current 3-1 'over' run. The lone game in which it allowed more than 88 field goals over that stretch came in an overtime victory over New Orleans on Sunday (we missed with the 'under' in that game). Note that offensively, the Nuggets have hoisted up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in three consecutive games. Playing their third game in four nights on Wednesday (before returning home to host Golden State for the second time in three nights tomorrow), I'm not convinced they'll be interested in a track meet here. Sacramento has been struggling offensively, at least when it comes to efficiency, as it has made good on 35, 39, 46 and 39 field goals over its last four games. The 46 field goal performance came in a 114-113 loss in Dallas (it's worth noting that final score would have stayed well below the total we're working with tonight). Defensively, the Kings continue to struggle as well, but again I'm just not sure the pace will be there to help this one 'over' the total, noting that seven of Sacramento's last 10 opponents have gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts. That includes two previous matchups with the Nuggets in which Denver attempted 86 and 82 field goals. In all three meetings this season, Denver has totalled 86 FG attempts or less. Take the under (10*). |
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03-09-22 | Magic v. Pelicans -8.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Pelicans seemingly 'punted' last night's game in Memphis, sitting Brandon Ingram in what turned out to be a blowout loss (we won with the 'over'). Here, I expect a much better performance from New Orleans as it returns home to host Orlando, which is also in a back-to-back spot off a three-point home loss against the Suns last night. Note that the Magic's offense has gone back in the tank, knocking down just 36, 37 and 35 field goals over its last three games despite getting off 95, 86 and 92 field goal attempts in those three contests. Meanwhile, Orlando has shown no ability to control its opponents tempo, yielding 90+ field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. Even without Ingram last night in Memphis, New Orleans stayed reasonably hot offensively, knocking down 41-of-88 FG attempts. Over their last five games, the Pelicans have made good on 47, 52, 50, 48 and 41 field goals. With the Magic projected to allow them to get off 90+ attempts tonight, there's plenty of runway for the improved Pelicans offense to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard. On the flip side, New Orleans had been doing a nice job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities up until last night, yielding fewer than 90 FG attempts in six straight games. The Magic have had a tough enough time reaching 100 points when being afforded 90+ attempts. If they can't get close to that many opportunities on Wednesday, they should be in for a long night, noting also that while New Orleans allows 109.5 points per game overall this season, that average drops to 104.0 ppg when coming off two or more consecutive losses, as is the case here. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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03-09-22 | Hartford v. Maryland-Baltimore County -3.5 | Top | 60-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
America East Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Maryland-Baltimore County minus the points over Hartford at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Beating a team three times in one season is no simply task but I expect Maryland-Baltimore County to accomplish that feat and book its spot in the America East Championship Game with a convincing victory over Hartford on Wednesday. Both regular season meetings were relatively close but the Retrievers ultimately prevailed by four and seven-point margins. Hartford actually got off 61 and 65 field goal attempts in those two contests while UMBC attempted just 52 and 50 field goals yet the Hawks still fell short on both occasions. Given Hartford's current form, having knocked down just 21, 27 and 16 field goals in its last three games, I'm not convinced it will be able to stay within arm's reach this time around. Note that UMBC will give up plenty of opportunities, yielding 60+ FG attempts in six straight games entering this matchup. But the Hawks aren't really adept at pushing the pace, shooting just 25-of-55 on the road this season, and have attempted fewer than 50 field goals in three of their last six games. I don't think this is going to be a comfortable environment for Hartford on Wednesday. UMBC checks in having made good on 33, 23, 25, 29, 28 and 29 field goals over its last six contests, scoring 90+ points in four of those games. In other words, the Retrievers have been very consistent in what they do on offense. While they do allow opponents to get out and run, they've only given up an average of 27 made field goals per game (on an average of 61 attempts per contest) here at home this season. As an added bonus, the Retrievers check in as one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country, knocking down just shy of 80% of their attempts. I don't need to tell you how much that matters at this time of year especially. Take Maryland-Baltimore County (10*). |
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03-09-22 | Oregon State v. Oregon OVER 142.5 | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oregon State and Oregon at 5:30 pm et on Wednesday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team that played worse defensively down the stretch than Oregon State. The Beavers check in having allowed a ridiculous 30+ made field goals in six of their last eight games. The last time they played in-state rival Oregon, they gave up 78 points on 31 made field goals despite the Ducks barely needing to break a sweat getting off just 56 field goal attempts. Here, I do think Oregon State can be along for the ride, however, noting that Oregon brings awful defensive form into this contest as well. The Ducks check in having yielded 31, 31, 25, 26, 27 and 32 made field goals over their last six games. That's despite four of their six opponents over that stretch hoisting up fewer than 60 FG attempts. While the first meeting between these two teams totalled 154 points back in early January, the aforementioned second matchup reached only 134 points. That was thanks to the Beavers hitting just 20-of-66 field goals including only five from beyond the arc. While the Beavers offense isn't going to wow anyone, that was arguably its worst performance of the season. They did ramp things up a bit down the stretch, knocking down at least 23 field goals in seven of their last nine games. Of course, we all remember Oregon State's incredible run to a Pac-12 championship last year. While that's probably not in the cards this year, I don't expect the Beavers to go down without a fight. Take the over (8*). |
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03-09-22 | Olympique Lyonnais v. FC Porto OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -135 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
Europa League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between FC Porto and Olympique Lyon at 12:45 pm et on Wednesday. If this were the second leg of this matchup, perhaps this total would make some sense. I don't believe it does in the first leg, however, as both squads possess plenty of firepower and will be looking to stake their claim on Wednesday. I see massive advantages up front for Portuguese powerhouse Porto in this one. The addition of Galeno - who sits tied atop the Europa League goal-scoring list with Karl Toko Ekambi of Lyon - coming over from Braga to add another dimension, not always even finding a place in Porto's starting XI, indicates the depth and talent the Portuguese side can turn to. Porto has gone 18 consecutive matches without a loss across all competitions and should be in good position to keep that streak intact here. With that being said, Lyon does pose a threat. The French side has actually seen eight of its last 10 matches stay 'under' 2.5 goals but should be drawn into a firefight here, noting that both teams have found the back of the net in six of Porto's last seven contests. Lyon has scored an incredible nine goals in its last three 'away' matches in Europa League play. If there's a weakness on Porto's squad its at the back-end and with Dembele and Ekambi ambitious in attack, I'm confident Lyon can find at least one goal in this contest. Take the over (10*). |
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03-08-22 | Clippers v. Warriors -6.5 | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Warriors have somewhat quietly dropped five straight and nine of their last 11 games overall, including a 131-124 loss in Denver last night. Of course that loss on Monday was to be expected as they rested Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins. Here, I look for a big response in the Warriors first game back home following a four-game road trip. They dropped their last game on this floor, blowing a big lead against the Mavericks, who are playing some of the best basketball of any team in the NBA right now. The Clippers are not in that same vein, coming off a 116-93 drubbing at home against the Knicks on Sunday. They've allowed their last two opponents - two struggling teams at that in the Lakers and Knicks - to knock down 41 and 42 field goals despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They'll without question have their hands full against a revenge-minded Warriors squad that even without a number of key contributors still made good on 45-of-88 FG attempts and poured in 124 points in Denver last night. While Golden State has been giving up plenty of points during its current skid, there are positives to take away as it has held all six opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts since the All-Star break. The opposition isn't going to continue to knock down its shots at such a clip as we've seen, noting that Golden State has allowed an average of 37-for-87 (42.2%) shooting at home this season. Take Golden State (9*). |
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03-08-22 | UT-Rio Grande Valley v. California Baptist UNDER 148.5 | Top | 80-81 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
WAC Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas-Rio Grande Valley and Cal Baptist at 9 pm et on Tuesday. |
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03-08-22 | Stars v. Predators -113 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 32 h 14 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Nashville over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Preds snapped out of a two-game skid with a resounding 8-0 win in San Jose on Saturday. It's all for not, however, if they can't follow it up with another victory back home against Dallas on Tuesday night. I look for them to accomplish that with Dallas checking in off consecutive wins to open this three-game road trip. Note that the Stars are still just 12-15 on the road this season, outscored by 0.6 goals on average along the way. I'll also point to the fact that the Stars are 0-5 when playing on the road off consecutive wins over division opponents over the last two seasons outscored by a whopping 2.2 goals on average in that situation. In the long-term picture, they're just 58-84 when coming off four or more consecutive wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Preds have been an excellent positive momentum play, going 8-1 when coming off a road win in which they scored 4+ goals this season, which is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. Take Nashville (10*). |
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03-08-22 | Rangers v. Wild -140 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 32 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over New York at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Wild are in desperate need of a spark right now, and fast as they have fallen all the way into a tie for third place in the Central Division just a few points above the first team out in the Western Conference playoff picture. I do look for Minnesota to bounce back on Tuesday as it looks to begin the turnaround following a 2-8 skid. Here, we'll note that the Wild are a perfect 8-0 after giving up 5+ goals in consecutive games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.2 goals on average in that spot. They also check in 11-2 when coming off a home loss by 3+ goals over the same stretch, which is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 1.1 goals in that situation. The Rangers are riding a three-game winning streak including a 4-1 victory in Winnipeg on Sunday to open their current road trip. It's not as if they've been dominant on the road this season though, only outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.2 goals in 29 games. They check in averaging only 2.8 goals per contest away from home, compared to the Wild who put up 4.3 goals per game here at home this season. Here, we'll note that New York is a woeful 2-10 when on the road after scoring 3+ goals in three or more consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, averaging just 1.9 goals and outscored by 1.7 goals on average in that spot. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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03-08-22 | Senators v. Blues OVER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -113 | 32 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Senators most recent game - a 2-1 loss in Las Vegas on Sunday. We also cashed with the 'under' in the Blues 2-1 loss on Long Island on Saturday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as the Sens conclude their road trip in St. Louis on Tuesday night. Note that the 'over' is 14-5 with Ottawa coming off a game in which it scored one goal or less over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 8.3 goals. So far this season, the 'over' is 7-1 when the Sens follow up a game that saw four total goals or less, also the situation here, leading to an average total of 8.7 goals. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I like to take a zig-zag approach when it comes to Blues totals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 33-22 with St. Louis coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 6.7 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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03-08-22 | Stars v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 104 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games. In the case of the Stars they're coming off four consecutive 'over' results. As for Nashville, it exploded for eight goals in a shutout win in San Jose on Saturday - its second straight 'over' result. Here, I look for a different story to unfold. Note that the Stars check in averaging a miserable 1.4 goals per game when playing on the road off consecutive wins over division opponents over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 5.0 goals (five-game sample size). The 'under' is 7-1 with the Stars having scored 3+ goals in four consecutive games this season, leading to an average total of 5.1 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 46-29 with the Stars coming off four or more consecutive 'over' results in the long-term picture. The Preds, meanwhile, average just 1.4 goals per game when playing at home after scoring 6+ goals in their previous game over the last two seasons, with the 'under' going a perfect 7-0 along the way with an average total of only 3.5 goals. The 'under' is also 9-1 with Nashville playing at home after scoring 4+ goals in a road victory over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of only 4.2 goals. Take the under (8*). |
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03-08-22 | Coyotes v. Red Wings OVER 5.5 | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. While this matchup pits two non-contenders from opposite conferences, I don't expect any shortage of offensive fireworks on Tuesday night at Little Caesars Arena. The Coyotes ended a stretch of scoring three goals or less in seven straight games with an eight-goal explosion against Ottawa on Saturday. They're well-positioned to keep it going against a Red Wings squad that has had a miserable time keeping the puck out of its own net lately, allowing 27 goals over their last five games alone. Alex Nedeljkovic is expected to start in goal for Detroit - an area that has been a real sore spot for the Wings. Nedeljkovic has posted a .889 save percentage over his last four starts. The 'over' is 12-9 in his 21 home starts this season, where he has posted a .901 save percentage this season. Interestingly, the Coyotes average an impressive 4.5 goals per game with an average total of 6.8 goals after being outshot by 8+ shots in three consecutive games this season (four-game sample size). While the 'Yotes allow a disappointing 3.7 goals per game overall this season, that average rises to 4.2 goals per game when coming off a win, as is the case here (15-game sample size). As for the Red Wings, they average only 2.9 goals this season but that average increases to 3.6 goals per contest after losing five or six of their last seven games this season, as is the case here (nine-game sample size). The 'over' is 10-3 with the Wings coming off a road loss by two or more goals this season, resulting in an average of 7.0 total goals in that spot. Take the over (6*). |
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03-08-22 | Marshall -3.5 v. Florida International | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Marshall minus the points over Florida International at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. Florida International picked the wrong time to go into a shooting slump, entering the C-USA Tournament on the heels of four consecutive losses, going 1-3 ATS over that stretch. Because of their late season woes, the Panthers draw a very capable, revenge-minded Marshall squad in their tournament opener on Tuesday. Marshall also enters the tourney on a losing skid, having dropped three in a row. I like the Thundering Herd's offense in this particular matchup, noting that FIU has allowed 31, 25 and 27 made field goals over its last three games, despite allowing 57 or fewer field goal attempts in each of those contests. Marshall will undoubtedly push the pace here (it averages 64 field goal attempts per game away from home this season) and if it is successful in doing so, I'm confident it can hang a crooked number on the scoreboard against a vulnerable Panthers defense. FIU has made good on just 23, 22, 18 and 25 field goals over its last four contests. It shot well in both meetings against Marshall during the regular season, a big reason it was able to win both games. Keep in mind, those two contests could have gone either way with the Panthers prevailing by just four and one-point margins. There was really nothing special about either performance from FIU. Marshall is a favored for a reason here as it looks to finally put one over on FIU in the most important matchup of its season. Take Marshall (8*). |
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03-08-22 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies OVER 231.5 | Top | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' in the Pelicans overtime loss in Denver two nights ago. I won't hesitate to switch gears on Tuesday and back the 'over' as they wrap up their brief two-game road trip in Memphis. New Orleans is undoubtedly 'feeling it' right now, as evidenced by it hoisting up 92+ field goal attempts in three of its last four games, entering this contest on the heels of four straight games scoring 123+ points. The Pelicans will need every bit of that offensive production if they want to contend with the Grizzlies here. Memphis checks in off an embarrassing home loss against the lowly Rockets two nights ago. The Grizz continued to force the issue offensively in that one, hoisting up 97 field goal attempts, marking the fifth time in the last seven games they attempted at least 92 field goals. I do think they're catching the Pelicans at the right time here. New Orleans was always bound for some regression defensively after an incredible run coming out of the break and we saw just that on Sunday as they allowed the Nuggets to shoot 47-of-87 (54%) from the field in a 138-point effort (boosted by overtime, mind you). The Grizzlies come into this game having hit at least 42 field goals in five straight games and have scored 107+ points in an incredible 17 straight games. This is the highest total we've seen in this series this season but it's warranted in my opinion. Note that in their most recent matchup on February 15th, we saw 230 total points despite New Orleans shooting a miserable 4-of-26 from three-point range. The Pelicans will no doubt improve on that performance here, helping this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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03-08-22 | Nets -4.5 v. Hornets | Top | 132-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I see this as a smash spot for the Nets on the heels of four straight losses including Sunday's 126-120 loss in a nationally-televised matinee affair in Boston. Kevin Durant is still saying the right things (he of course recently returned from injury) and I don't think the Nets are hitting the panic button by any means, even as they continue to fall in the Eastern Conference standings. With a tough matchup with the 76ers on deck in Philadelphia, getting a win here is of critical importance. Note that the Nets have knocked down 42 and 45 field goals in their last two road games, despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in each of those contests. Also on a positive note, the Nets have held their last two opponents to just 77 and 83 FG attempts. The Heat and Celtics simply shot the lights out in those two contests. I'm not anticipating the same type of offensive performance from Charlotte here. The Hornets are off consecutive wins but they've been wildly inconsistent in recent weeks, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. Note that they've allowed seven of their last nine opponents to get off 90+ FG attempts and if that happens tonight, as it likely will, the Nets offense should be able to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard. While laying almost a handful of points on the road is certainly a concern, the Nets have managed to go a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven victories with five of those seven wins coming away from home (not surprisingly as Kyrie Irving is only available to the team for road games not played in New York). Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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03-08-22 | Inter Milan v. Liverpool -175 | 1-0 | Loss | -175 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Liverpool over Inter Milan at 3 pm et on Tuesday. |
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03-08-22 | Salzburg v. Bayern Munich OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Champions League First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Bayern Munich and Red Bull Salzburg at 3 pm et on Tuesday. Salzburg surprisingly carried a 1-0 lead into halftime in the first leg of this Champions League matchup. In fact, it carried that lead all the way into injury time in the second half before Bayern Munich was able to equalize. I expect a much different story to unfold on German soil on Tuesday. Interestingly, Bayern Munich has seen a grand total of just three goals in its last two matches - both coming in Bundesliga play against Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen. Most expected a wave of goals in its most recent contest against Leverkusen but that sort of affair never came to pass. I do think the potential is there for plenty of fireworks in this one, however. We saw Bayern pour it on late in an effort to equalize in the first leg and I'm confident we'll see some carry-over from that performance on Tuesday. Salzburg has conceded four goals in its last three 'away' matches in Champions League play with three of those coming in the first half. Meanwhile, Bayern has netted a whopping 13 goals in its last three 'home' Champions League contests - six in the first half. Bayern will obviously be difficult for Salzburg to break down but I'm not about to completely dismiss the young and talented Austrian side. It enters this match on the heels of a 4-0 rout of SC Rheindorf Altach on Saturday. Note that while it has found the back of the net only twice in its last three 'away' Champions League matches, both of those goals came in the first 30 minutes. I think Salzburg will be well aware that it won't be able to hold Bayern at bay for as long as it did in the first leg. It is likely going to need to find at least two goals in order to have any hope of advancement in what would be a monumental upset. Regardless how this one plays out, I believe we're well-positioned to cash the first half 'over' as we either see Salzburg put Bayern back on its heels with an early goal, or the home side strikes and then the floodgates open as they often do at Allianz Arena. Take the first half over (10*). |
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03-08-22 | Boston College -1.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 66-46 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
ACC Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston College minus the points over Pittsburgh at 2 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this ACC Tournament opener sets up for Boston College. The Eagles do limp into the tourney off three consecutive SU and ATS losses but none of those defeats were for lack of trying. The Eagles actually missed the cover by just a bucket last time out at Georgia Tech, putting forth a valiant effort in an 82-78 loss as a three-point underdog. I like the consistency Boston College has shown offensively down the stretch, knocking down 26 or more field goals in four of its last five games, despite getting off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in all five of those contests. While the Eagles defense did lag in their final two games allowing 31 and 30 made field goals, they did continue to do a good job of controlling tempo, yielding no more than 56 field goal attempts in any of their last five games (in that game where they gave up 56, Florida State knocked down only 19 of them). Pitt has dropped each of its last four games both SU and ATS. It reached a high-water mark of only 25 made field goals over that stretch. Away from its home floor this season, the Panthers averaged a woeful 20 made field goals per game, having a tough enough time just getting shots off, attempting just 50 field goals per contest in 'away' games. While Boston College at least showed some signs of life defensively in the final few weeks of the season, Pitt got torched for 26, 32, 32 and 27 made field goals over its final four games. The 27 allowed against Notre Dame in its regular season finale came on just 48 attempts. In fact, the Panthers last three opponents all shot better than 55% from the field. While Pitt did manage to split the regular season series against Boston College that was only thanks to getting to the free throw line 28 times in its home matchup (a game the Panthers won by just two points, failing to cover as three-point favorites). BC took the return match in Chestnut Hill by 13 points as a 3.5-point favorite on January 30th. Take Boston College (10*). |
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03-07-22 | Northern Kentucky -1.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 57-43 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Horizon League Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Kentucky minus the points over Purdue-Fort Wayne at 9:30 pm et on Monday. |
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03-07-22 | Lakers v. Spurs -4.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The Spurs enter Monday's game riding a four-game losing streak. They certainly haven't quit on the season though. That's evident by the fact that they've poured in 100+ points in nine straight games. The Spurs continue to apply a ton of pressure on opposing defenses, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in 10 consecutive contests. While they've continued to give up plenty of points as well, we have seen some signs of a potential turnaround, noting that they've held their last four opponents to 83, 89, 84 and 91 FG attempts. The Lakers are in a fairly obvious letdown spot here after a big upset win over the Warriors at home on Saturday. Consistency has certainly not been a part of the Lakers vocabulary this season and I expect that to hold true here. Note that Los Angeles has yielded 92+ FG attempts in three of its last four games, giving up 123, 109, 132 and 116 points over that stretch. Offensively, we've seen the Lakers manage to get off fewer than 90 FG attempts in four straight games, fortunate to knock down 40+ in each of their last two contests. There's not a lot of margin for error when it comes to the Lakers, especially with Anthony Davis remaining sidelined. Here, we'll note that the Lakers are just 13-28 ATS when coming off a home win over the last two seasons and 9-18 ATS off a victory of any kind this season. The Spurs, meanwhile, are 38-24 ATS when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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03-07-22 | Blazers v. Wolves UNDER 235 | Top | 81-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We just saw a track meet between these two teams two nights ago on this floor as the T'Wolves rolled to a 135-121 victory. Minnesota is on an incredible offensive run right now, having scored 127+ points in four straight games. Both teams are dealing with a number of key injuries - too many to mention. With that in mind, I'm not convinced either will be interested in another track meet on Monday. Note that the Blazers have held eight consecutive opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, they've gotten off 85 or less FG attempts themselves in four of their last five contests, held to 34 or fewer made field goals in three of those games. As I mentioned, the T'Wolves are on a scoring tear and have seen the 'over' cash in five straight games. The pace of play doesn't necessarily bear it out, however, noting that Minnesota has held four of its last five opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts. It has actually done a nice job defensively at home all season, giving up an average of just 38 made field goals per game on just north of 43% shooting. I expect this lofty total to prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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03-07-22 | Avalanche -190 v. Islanders | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over New York at 7:35 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in the Islanders most recent game as they skated to a low-event 2-1 win over a suddenly struggling St. Louis squad on Saturday afternoon. Here, I won't hesitate to fade the Isles as they stay at home to host an Avs team that will undoubtedly be in an unforgiving mood after suffering rare consecutive losses. Note that Colorado has been held to just four goals over its last two games. That's happened over a two-game stretch only twice previously this season. In their next game they've gone 2-0, scoring nine goals in the process. I certainly anticipate Colorado bouncing back offensively here, noting that it will be facing Semyon Varlamov between the pipes for the Isles. The Isles have given up nine goals in Varlamov's last two starts and they've gone winless in his eight starts against non-conference opponents this season. Isles head coach Barry Trotz announced that there's still no timetable for Mat Barzal or Zdeno Chara's return, two key missing pieces. While it has picked up a few wins here and there over the last several weeks, there's no denying New York's season has been circling the drain for quite some time. Look for Colorado to get back in the win column on Monday. Take Colorado (5*). |
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03-07-22 | Bulls v. 76ers UNDER 230.5 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in the 76ers most recent game on Saturday in Miami with that result snapping their streak of six straight 'overs'. I believe the total will prove too high once again on Monday as the Sixers return home to host the reeling Bulls. Chicago desperately needs to stop the bleeding, having lost four straight games. The turnaround needs to start at the defensive end of the floor as they check in having allowed 112+ points in each of those four losses. Note that Chicago has allowed just 107.5 points per game after losing four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons with those games totalling an average of 219.1 points. Note that despite allowing a boatload of points, the Bulls have done a better job of keeping their opponents scoring opportunities in check over the last three games, allowing 81, 84 and 88 field goal attempts. Prior to that they had allowed 90+ FG attempts in six of their last eight contests. On the flip side, the Bulls have shot the lights out over their last three games; 49%, 59% and 50%, respectively. I don't expect that to continue against a Sixers defense that has allowed fewer than 40 made field goals and less than 90 FG attempts in four of their last five games. Prior to Saturday's loss, Philadelphia had scored 123+ points in five straight games. Its pace certainly didn't support those gawdy point totals, noting that it got off 82 or fewer FG attempts in four of those five contests. Regression caught up with the Sixers on Saturday (I realize James Harden sat that game out, a key contributing factor as well) as they scored just 82 points on 34% shooting. While the 'over' has cashed in two of three previous meetings between these two teams this season, none of those games went 'over' the total we're dealing with tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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03-07-22 | Levante v. Ath Bilbao UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
La Liga Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Athletic Bilbao and Levante at 3 pm et on Monday. Yesterday we saw a wild, high-scoring La Liga match between Celta Vigo and Mallorca as we cashed with Celta in a 4-3 win. Here, I'm not expecting much in the way of offensive fireworks as Athletic hosts Levante with the first meeting between these two squads this season having resulted in a 0-0 draw back in November. I'm not convinced Levante will find many offensive opportunities in this match, let alone goals. It has scored just 12 times in 13 'away' matches in La Liga play this season and goes up against an Athletic squad that has conceded only 13 times in 12 'home' contests. Athletic's back line has performed reasonably well but the results haven't been there as it has dropped consecutive matches, first in La Liga play against Barcelona (0-4) and then in Copa Del Rey action against Valencia (0-1). Needless to say, scoring has been a bit of an issue, somewhat lacking in the dynamic talent department up front. Levante should offer plenty of opportunity for Athletic to bust out of its scoring slump but whether the latter can take full advantage remains to be seen. Note that Levante does bring terrific defensive form into this contest, having yielded just one goal in its last three matches, despite two of those three contests coming against the likes of top-10 sides Atletico Madrid and Celta Vigo. Here, we'll note that each of the last five matches between these two sides have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals. With Levante going winless in the last eight meetings it will simply be looking to hang on for a point here as it continues to fight its way out of the La Liga basement (and potential relegation). Take the under (10*). |
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03-06-22 | Pelicans v. Nuggets UNDER 227.5 | 130-138 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Denver at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. We've been riding the 'under' in Pelicans games since the All-Star break, cashing all three of our plays including in their last game as they dispatched the Jazz in stunning fashion in a 124-90 victory, easily cruising 'under' the total. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, noting that the 'under' is a perfect 10-0 with the Pelicans installed as a road underdog of six points or less this season, as is the case here (that situation has produced an average total of 209.2 points). Interestingly, in nine previous instances where the Pelicans have played on the road following consecutive home games, they've averaged only 102.0 points per game (compared to their season road scoring average of 104.6 points per game). The 'under' has gone 8-1 in that spot with an average total of just 207.6 points. Save for two offensive explosions against awful defensive opponents in the Kings and Blazers, the Nuggets have only been average offensively since the break. In five games since the break, they've reached 90 field goal attempts only once and that came in a game where they were in comeback mode in en eventual loss against the Thunder. The good news is, their defense has held up well, allowing 38 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four games. Speaking of defense, the Pelicans are as locked in at that end of the floor as any team in the league right now, having yielded 36 or fewer made field goals on less than 90 field goal attempts in four consecutive games. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has gone a perfect 4-0 over that stretch. The 'over' has cashed in two of three meetings between these two teams this season but only one of those games surpassed the total we're working with here (both teams shot better than 51% in that matchup back in early December). Note that six of nine meetings in this series over the last three seasons have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (9*). |
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03-06-22 | Senators v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Vegas at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. The Senators are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair in Arizona yesterday, falling by an 8-5 score against Arizona. I expect a much different story to unfold on Sunday, however, as they head to Las Vegas to take on the Golden Knights. Note that the 'under' is 15-4 with the Sens coming off an 'over' result this season, leading to an average total of just 4.9 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 15-2 when Ottawa follows up a game that saw 7+ total goals this season, as is the case here, resulting in only 4.5 total goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Knights check in off a 5-4 win in Anaheim on Friday. Note that the 'under' is 13-3 when they come off a road game in which both teams scored 3+ goals over the last three seasons, producing an average total of 5.1 goals in that situation. When the Knights play at home after scoring 5+ goals in their previous contest over the last two seasons, the 'under' has gone 23-13 in their next game, averaging just 5.0 total goals. Take the under (8*). |
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03-06-22 | Stars v. Wild -140 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -140 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota over Dallas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the Wild on Friday as they fell in stunning fashion on the road against the lowly Sabres. I do expect them to bounce back on Sunday, however, as they return home to host the Stars. Dallas is coming off an overtime win in Winnipeg on Friday. That sets the Stars up poorly here, noting that they've gone 3-10 when playing on the road off a win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. They're also just 2-9 after winning five or six of their last seven games over the same stretch, as is the case here, outscored by 2.0 goals on average in that situation. The Wild have been inexplicably struggling for weeks but they're well-positioned to bounce back here. Minnesota checks in 13-2 after allowing 4+ goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that spot. The Wild are also a terrific 14-3 when coming off five or six losses over their last seven games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals along the way. You would have to go back four meetings here in Minnesota to find the last time the Stars skated to a win here. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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03-06-22 | Tulane +9.5 v. SMU | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulane plus the points over SMU at 3 pm et on Sunday. SMU won by nine points in the first meeting between these two teams this season. Tulane certainly had its opportunities in that game as it got off a whopping 65 field goal attempts (compared to SMU's 52) but simply couldn't knock anything down, making good on just 24 of those 65 attempts, including only 7-of-19 from beyond the arc in the home defeat. Note that SMU shot the lights out from three-point range in that game, knocking down 15 threes and also made good on five more free throw attempts than Tulane, yet still only won by nine. You could argue that the Green Wave enter this rematch in better form offensively. Since February 5th, they've poured in 30, 20, 29, 29, 23, 18 and 28 made field goals. Even in the game where they only hit 18 they still only lost by five points at Temple. SMU continues to struggle to contain opposing offenses, allowing 62 or more field goal attempts in five of its last six games. Not only that but the Mustangs offense has sagged, making good on just 39-of-107 FG attempts over their last two games. While SMU will be taking a step down in class here, I expect Tulane to keep things interesting. Take Tulane (8*). |
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03-06-22 | South Florida +8.5 v. Temple | Top | 47-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
American Athletic Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over Temple at 2 pm et on Sunday. South Florida enters Sunday's game against Temple on the heels of three consecutive ATS wins. While the Bulls have endured a tough season on the whole, they have undoubtedly been playing some of their best basketball down the stretch. Note that they've done a tremendous job defensively, limiting their last five opponents to 20, 22, 16, 19 and 24 made field goals. Meanwhile, Temple has sagged in that department lately, allowing at least 23 made field goals in five of its last six contests. The Owls offense had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down in their most recent game, falling by an 84-46 score at Houston. South Florida isn't Houston, but the fact is the Owls have been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in four of their last five games. Keep in mind, the first time these two teams met this season South Florida prevailed by a 52-49 score, limiting Temple to just 18-of-49 from the field. There's actually plenty of room for improvement from the USF offense here after it knocked down only 20-of-55 FG attempts in that victory. The Bulls enter this game on a streak of nine straight games hitting at least 20 field goals. That's no big accomplishment for most teams, but it's certainly more than can be said for Temple which has been held to 18 or less field goals twice in its last seven contests. Here, we'll note that Temple checks in 0-6 ATS when coming off a road loss in which it scored 60 points or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 10.0 points in that situation. Take South Florida (10*). |
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03-06-22 | Mallorca v. Celta de Vigo -129 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
La Liga Game of the Year. My selection is on Celta Vigo over Mallorca at 12:30 pm et on Sunday. We missed with Celta Vigo two matches back as it gave up a late goal in a 1-1 home draw against Levante. It followed up that disappointing draw with a loss, held off the scoresheet entirely in a 2-0 away loss against Atletico Madrid. Here, I'm confident we'll see the home side bounce back and deliver its first victory in four matches. Mallorca sits 16th in the table, just four points clear of relegation. While it could desperately use at least a point out of this match, it will be hard pressed to earn it given the fact that it hasn't managed to score a single goal in its last two contests and comes in on the heels of three consecutive losses. Note that Mallorca has managed to score only 10 'away' goals in 12 matches this season, conceding 27 along the way. Celta Vigo on the other hand has been air tight defensively at home, giving up only 16 goals in 13 matches. With keeper Dominik Greif again sidelined for Mallorca it will have to turn to struggling keeper Sergio Rico once again. This is a spot where I look for the Celta offense to 'get right' and help the squad earn a critical three points as it looks to close the gap on 9th and 10th placed Valencia and Osasuna, respectively. Take Celta Vigo (10*). |
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03-05-22 | Flames v. Avalanche -145 | 4-3 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Calgary at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Flames check in off a loss to the Canadiens two nights ago. Losses have been few and far between for Calgary lately. In fact, the Flames haven't dropped consecutive games over their last 19 contests. I expect them to here, however. Colorado is coming off a disappointing 2-1 loss on the road against the lowly Coyotes. It wasn't for lack of trying as the Avs fired more than 40 shots on goal in that game. I certainly expect them to bounce back here, noting that they've gone 23-5 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals on average. While the Flames have given up a whopping 16 goals over their last four games, the Avs come in having allowed only 12 goals over their last five contests. Here, we'll note that Colorado is an incredible 16-1 when playing at home after winning five or six of its last seven games this season, outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. Take Colorado (6*). |
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03-05-22 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 227 | 116-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. We came close to playing the 'under' in the Warriors most recent game but wisely laid off as that contest soared 'over' the total in Dallas. Here, I won't hesitate to back the 'under' as the Warriors head to Los Angeles to face the reeling Lakers. The pace wasn't necessarily there for a high-scoring game between the Warriors and Mavs two nights ago but both teams shot the lights out in a game that ultimately totalled 235 points. Having allowed three straight opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field, I look for a strong response from the Golden State defense in this one. Meanwhile, the Lakers check in off an embarrassing loss to the rival Clippers on Thursday. Like the Warriors, they've also allowed three consecutive opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. At the other end of the court they've had a difficult enough time running their offense let alone scoring. They're just two games removed from a 95-point effort here at home against the Pelicans. They did shoot just shy of 49% from the field against the Clippers last time out but that was a game that warranted little intensity with the outcome never really in doubt as the Clips cruised to a 21-point victory. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-12 with the Warriors coming off a road loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 218.6 points. The 'under' is 39-23 with the Lakers seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110+ points over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 215.9 points. Take the under (9*). |
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03-05-22 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 221 | 82-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in the 76ers come-from-behind win over the Cavs last night - a game that somewhat surprisingly got into the 240's. Philadelphia once again shot the lights out in that contest, actually getting off only 75 field goal attempts but knocking down 41 of them in the win. Here, I expect the Sixers to face a lot more resistance against a Heat defense that allows opponents to shoot just 37-of-83 on average at home this season. Like the Sixers, the Heat shot exceptionally well in their most recent game, knocking down 40-of-77 shots in a road win over Brooklyn. That game still ultimately stayed 'under' the total and the 'under' has now cashed in seven of Miami's last 12 games overall. Note that these two teams have met twice previously this season. On both occasions one of the two squads was held under 100 points. Those two contests totalled just 197 and 207 points yet we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total for this one. Recency bias is certainly at play, too much so in my opinion. Take the under (8*). |
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03-05-22 | Canucks v. Maple Leafs -205 | 6-4 | Loss | -205 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Vancouver at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Canucks enter this game off a solid 4-3 win over the Islanders two nights ago and have won two of the first three games on their current eastern road swing. Meanwhile, the Leafs are coming off a very ugly 5-1 loss to the Sabres on home ice. I don't expect Toronto will have any difficulty getting up for this bounce-back game against a Canucks squad they just dropped a 3-2 decision against in Vancouver back on February 12th. Note that Toronto is an incredible 17-3 when at home seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, allowing just 1.7 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. When seeking revenge for a one-goal loss against an opponent this season the Leafs have given up only 1.3 goals on average, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average (six-game sample size). Meanwhile, the Canucks are a woeful 11-27 when coming off a road win over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.9 goals on average in that spot and even worse, they're just 3-13 when following up a road win in which they scored 4+ goals over the last two seasons, allowing 3.9 goals on average while being outscored by 1.7 goals in that situation. Take Toronto (5*). |
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03-05-22 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6 | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Bruins enter this game off three straight 'over' results while the Blue Jackets have seen their last two games go 'over' the total. I'll go the other way on Saturday as the two teams match up in Columbus. Starting goaltenders have been confirmed with Jeremy Swayman manning the net for the Bruins and Elvis Merzlikins starting in a back-to-back spot for the Jackets. Swayman has been tremendous lately, posting a .965 save percentage over his last four games. Merzlikins has certainly been the Jackets best option as well, recording a .916 save percentage on home ice this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 15-7 with the Bruins playing on the road off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. The B's enter this game having scored a whopping 15 goals over their last three contests. Note that they've accomplished that feat only twice previously this season, with the 'under' cashing in their next game on both occasions. Take the under (7*). |
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03-05-22 | Stanford v. Arizona State UNDER 130.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Stanford and Arizona State at 3 pm et on Saturday. We missed by the narrowest of margins with the 'under' in Stanford's last game against one of the fastest-paced teams in the nation in Arizona. Credit the Cardinal for at least slowing the Wildcats down enough to stay inside the pointspread in that game but it wasn't enough to keep it 'under' the total. Nevertheless, we'll go back to the well with the same play here as the Cardinal stay on the road to face a much slower-paced opponent in Arizona State. The Sun Devils have allowed just 22 made field goals on average here at home this season, limiting opponents to just under 64 points per game. Going back to February 12th, they've yielded just 18, 19, 21, 21, 21, 23 and 18 made field goals in their last seven contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed at a 5-2 clip over that stretch. While Arizona has also been shooting the ball well, fueling its current three-game winning streak and 6-1 run, I do think Stanford will pose a challenge here. The Cardinal have limited each of their last six opponents to 27 made field goals or fewer. Perhaps more importantly, they've been able to limit scoring opportunities in general, holding the opposition to 55 or fewer FG attempts in each of their last five games. Unfortunately for them, it hasn't translated to victories as their offense has been uneven at best, knocking down 21 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. The Wildcats up-tempo style was really the only thing that afforded Stanford the ability to approach 30 made field goals and 70 points last time out. I expect a different story to unfold here, noting that Stanford was held to 19-of-50 shooting, albeit in a winning effort, in its first meeting with Arizona State this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-05-22 | Dartmouth v. Harvard OVER 129.5 | Top | 76-54 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dartmouth and Harvard at 2 pm et on Saturday. When these teams matched up for the first time this season they combined to score only 119 points and as a result we're working with a lower posted total for this rematch. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair between the Big Green and Crimson. After a major offensive lull from January into early February, Dartmouth has started 'filling it up' again lately, knocking down 23, 28, 26 and 28 field goals in its last four contests, scoring 70+ points in three of those games. I'm confident the Big Green can continue their surge against a Harvard squad that has allowed 25+ made field goals in four of its last five games. On the flip side, we've seen the Crimson perform well offensively lately as well, even if the wins haven't come. They're coming off back-to-back losses but have knocked down 29, 28 and 29 field goals in their last three games, scoring 77, 67 and 73 points along the way. Note that Dartmouth hit only six three-pointers in its first meeting with Harvard this season but averages nine made threes per contest on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-05-22 | Blues v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and New York at 12:35 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in early action on Saturday. The Blues are coming off a wild 5-3 loss against the Rangers on Wednesday. They've had a couple of day to stew over that poor defensive effort and should come back strong in this spot. Note that the 'under' is 36-21 with the Blues coming off an 'over' result over the last two seasons. Better still, the 'under' is 46-29 with St. Louis off a game that totalled seven goals or more over the last three seasons. The Isles continue to struggle and enter this game following consecutive losses against the Avalanche and Canucks, allowing nine goals in the process. Keep in mind, New York allows just 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season, leading to an average total of only 4.9 goals. The 'under' is 15-4 with the Isles playing at home off consecutive 'over' results, with an average total of only 4.0 goals in that situation. The 'under' is also an incredible 11-2 after New York scores 3+ goals in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 4.2 goals. Take the under (8*). |
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03-05-22 | Alabama v. LSU UNDER 152.5 | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Alabama and LSU at 12 noon et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two SEC rivals totalled only 137 points this season. We're actually dealing with a higher posted total this time around, largely due to recent high-scoring results from both teams. I see a different story unfolding on Saturday, however. Note that LSU has held the opposition to an average of 19-for-54 shooting here at home this season. After falling short in a high-scoring game against Arkansas last time out, I'm not sure the Tigers want to get involved in a track meet against a more athletic Alabama squad here. The Crimson Tide's most recent game reached 158 points against Texas A&M but that was only thanks to both teams shooting the lights out. The pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring affair. I don't expect the Tide to have such a difficult time containing an LSU offense that has topped out at 28 made field goals over its last four games and averages that exact number here at home this season. Keep in mind, in the first matchup between these two teams, LSU knocked down 10 three-pointers, well north of its season average, yet still only got to 67 points. Alabama benefited from 32 trips to the free throw line in that contest, a number I don't expect it to approach with the scene shifting to Baton Rouge for this rematch. Take the under (8*). |
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03-05-22 | SpVgg Greuther Furth v. VfL Bochum -124 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Bundesliga Game of the Year. My selection is on Bochum over Gruether Furth at 9:30 am et on Saturday. Bochum hasn't been able to regain the magic it found in its massive upset win over Bayern Munich back on February 12th, going winless in three matches since including a 2-1 loss to Freiburg in DFB Cup action last time out. This looks like an excellent opportunity for it to get back on track as hit hosts last-place Greuther Furth on Saturday. Furth sits at the bottom of the Bundesliga table, five points back of 17th-place Stuttgart entering Saturday's action. To make matters worse, it has claimed just one point in 12 'away' matches this season. While Bochum has been first to concede in six consecutive matches, this is a favorable matchup as Furth has managed to score just six first half goals in 12 'away' matches this season while conceding 15. All told, Furth has yielded a whopping 44 goals away from home this season while Bochum has done a tremendous job of protecting its own goal at home, giving up just 11 goals in 12 matches. Winless in its last three matches and with a very difficult slate ahead this is a key spot for Bochum, which can potentially move inside the top-10 with a victory on Saturday. With Furth all but set to be relegated, it can likely only hang its hat on playing the role of spoiler against the big boys in the Bundesliga in the coming weeks. I'm not convinced it gets up for this one. Take Bochum (10*). |
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03-04-22 | Knicks v. Suns OVER 224 | Top | 114-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the Suns most recent game - a 120-90 win over the Blazers two nights ago. I won't hesitate to switch gears on Friday, however, as Phoenix hosts the reeling Knicks. New York has essentially stopped playing defense entirely, checking in having allowed 111 points or more in 11 consecutive games. The Knicks are coming off consecutive matchups with the 76ers with Philadelphia putting up 125 and 123 points without hardly breaking a sweat. Philadelphia actually let up in those two contests, attempting just 78 and 75 field goals, yet still managed to get well north of 120 points in both games. While the Suns are without both Chris Paul and Devin Booker, they're still capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard against bad defensive teams, as they showed in scoring 120 points against Portland on Wednesday. Note that Cam Payne made his return to the lineup in that game and while he contributed only five points, he was a difference-maker in 20 minutes of action, dishing out eight assists in the victory. I look for the Suns to continue to force the issue here without Booker and Paul, with consecutive home losses against the Pelicans and Jazz still fresh in their minds. While the Knicks aren't stopping anyone right now, they have continued to produce offensively, scoring 100 or more points in 13 consecutive games. The duo of Jerome Randle and R.J. Barrett continue to pad their stats on a nightly basis. They put up 108 points against a good Sixers defense despite getting only three points on 1-of-8 shooting from Evan Fournier two nights ago. Fournier is a streaky shooter but generally bounces back from bad performances. Just two games ago he shot 9-of-16 from the field in a 24-point effort. The Suns are a quality defensive team and allow just 105.6 points per game on the season, however they've given up 110.9 points per game when coming off a double-digit home win over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with the 'over' cashing at a 23-12 clip in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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03-04-22 | Jazz v. Pelicans UNDER 228.5 | 90-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. While the Jazz have seen their last three games fly 'over' the total the Pelicans check in off of three consecutive 'under' results. We actually won with the 'under' in New Orleans' most recent game - a blowout victory over the Kings two nights ago. This is a game where I look for the Jazz to 'manage' proceedings in some sense after an overtime game in Houston and in the midst of a brutal stretch that sees them play at least every other day from now through April 2nd. That's right, Utah won't enjoy consecutive days off until April 3rd and 4th. So on the heels of three consecutive wild, tightly-contested, dare I say energy-draining wins coming out of the All-Star break, I'm expecting Utah to take a more measured approach to this winnable road game. I call it a 'winnable' game as let's face it, they all are for a team as talented as the Jazz. With that being said, the Pelicans should offer some resistance as they come in playing exceptionally well, winners of three straight games coming out of the break. They've held four of their last nine opponents to fewer than 100 points (that's a considerable accomplishment by today's NBA standards). Each of their last four opponents have gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The pace of the Pelicans most recent game against Sacramento didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring result (they put up 125 points on 88 FG attempts) but they shot the lights out, knocking down 59.1% of their attempts. I'm certainly not expecting a repeat performance here as Utah hasn't allowed more than 88 FG attempts in any of its last seven games and should bounce back defensively after yielding 50%+ shooting in each of its last two contests. Take the under (8*). |
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03-04-22 | Cavs v. 76ers UNDER 220 | 119-125 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The 76ers have now seen each of their last five games go 'over' the total. It's not a sustainable run in my opinion, especially considering the pace they've been playing at. Note that Philadelphia's last three 'over' results have had more to do with the inept nature of their opponent's defense than anything else (T'Wolves and two against the Knicks). The Sixers have actually attempted 82 or fewer field goals in five of their last six games. Over that stretch they had one game where they only hit 23 of them. They also enter this game having held each of their last three opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. Now they host a slumping Cavs squad that has scored fewer than 100 points in three of their last six games. We can anticipate Cleveland at least playing with some purpose defensively off consecutive losses, more than we could say for the Sixers last three opponents. Note that Cleveland has limited seven straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. These two teams just met back on February 12th and the game totalled only 196 points. The Sixers didn't have James Harden for that one and while he's certainly a difference-maker, I'm not convinced the big adjustment to the total is warranted (that game saw a closing total of 210.5). Take the under (8*). |
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03-04-22 | Red Wings v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Friday. There are times when the oddsmakers simply can't set a total high enough and I believe that's the case for Friday's matchup between the Red Wings and Lightning in Tampa. Detroit is a mess in goal right now with regular starter Alex Nedeljkovic struggling mightily, having posted a ridiculous .825 save percentage over his last four starts. Backup Thomas Greiss isn't necessarily a better option though. He owns a .865 save percentage in 10 road games (nine starts) this season, with the 'over' cashing in seven of those nine starts. The good news for Detroit is that it has been scoring with some consistency. The Wings have scored three goals or more in 13 of their last 16 games. Tonight they'll likely get the opportunity to go against Lightning backup goaltender Brian Elliott. He owns a .902 save percentage this season but that number drops to .873 here at home. The 'over' is 7-1 in his eight starts. The Lightning will undoubtedly be in a foul mood following last night's lifeless effort in a 5-1 loss to the Penguins. That really came out of nowhere as they had been lighting it up offensively, scoring 4, 6, 5, 3 and 5 goals over their last five games. Note that the 'over' is 7-1 with the Bolts coming off a loss by 3+ goals this season. They've averaged a whopping 5.1 goals per game in that situation with an average total of 7.7 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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03-04-22 | Devils v. Rangers -152 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Rangers have taken seven straight meetings against the Devils and I don't believe this is the spot where New Jersey finally turns the tide. New York still has losses against Pittsburgh and Vancouver fresh in its mind despite an impressive win over St. Louis on Wednesday. This is obviously a key spot for the Blueshirts before they head out on a four-game road trip. Here, they're in one of their more favorable spots, having held opponents to just 1.6 goals per game, outscoring them by an average margin of 1.3 goals when playing at home off a home win this season (eight-game sample size). Better still, New York is 10-1 this season, averaging 3.6 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals on average, when coming off consecutive games in which it allowed 3+ goals, as is the case here. New Jersey, meanwhile, is a woeful 11-32 when coming off two losses in its last three games over the last two seasons, allowing 3.7 goals on average in that spot. Take New York (8*). |
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03-04-22 | Penguins v. Hurricanes UNDER 6.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Penguins exploded for five goals in an unlikely blowout win in Tampa last night while the Hurricanes were blanked by a 4-0 score in Washington. I believe we're set up for a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams in Raleigh on Friday night, even after the lone previous meeting this season totalled seven goals on February 20th. Note that the Penguins allow just 2.3 goals per game on the road this season while the Canes are giving up only 2.2 goals per contest on home ice. Carolina has allowed eight goals over its last two games and that's notable as it has happened on only five previous occasions this season. In the Canes next game after giving up 8+ goals over a two-game stretch they've allowed only 1, 3, 1, 3 and 0 goals with the 'under' cashing in three of those five contests. Here, we'll also note that the 'under' is 12-2 with the Canes playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.5 goals. The 'under' is also 29-12 with Carolina coming off a loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 5.2 goals in that situation. Pittsburgh scored five goals last night but had been held to a grand total of nine goals over its previous five games. Take the under (6*). |
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03-04-22 | Wild -200 v. Sabres | 4-5 | Loss | -200 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Believe it or not, this is a revenge spot for the Wild after they stunningly dropped a 3-2 decision at home against the Sabres as a -320 home favorite back in mid-December. Minnesota certainly isn't playing its best hockey right now but it is coming off a come-from-behind win in Philadelphia last night - the type of win that can build some positive vibes for a team. Note that the Wild have failed to register consecutive wins over an eight-game stretch currently - their longest such stretch of the season. I expect it to end here. Note that Minnesota is 7-1 after losing five or six of its last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. Better still, they're an incredible 13-1 after giving up 4+ goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals while averaging 3.9 goals per game in that situation. As for the Sabres, they've gone 0-6 when returning home off consecutive road games this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that spot. Take Minnesota (5*). |
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03-04-22 | Bowling Green v. Toledo OVER 165 | Top | 56-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Bowling Green and Toledo at 6:30 pm et on Friday. This game has 'track meet' written all over it. While we're dealing with a very high posted total, I believe it could be even higher. Bowling Green hasn't had any success in slowing the pace although I'm not sure it really has any interest in doing so. The Falcons have allowed five of their last six opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Opponents have been 'filling it up' against BGSU, knocking down 28, 34, 44, 28, 27, 28 and 26 field goals over its last seven contests. Enter Toledo. The Rockets have lit it up, making good on 105 field goals in their last three games alone, scoring 92, 88 and 92 points in those three contests. The Rockets play at an even faster pace than the Falcons, yielding 63+ field goal attempts to opponents in six of their last seven games. That should open the door for the Falcons capable offense to go off as well in an effort to keep up. BGSU has been fairly consistent offensively, knocking down 25 or more field goals in six straight games entering Friday's contest. The Falcons didn't shoot particularly well in the first meeting between these two teams this season, but still made good on 30 FG attempts including 10 from beyond the arc for 78 points in a game that totalled 169 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-04-22 | Sevilla v. Alavés UNDER 2 | 0-0 | Win | 105 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Deportivo Alaves and Sevilla at 3 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring La Liga affairs last weekend with Sevilla securing a thrilling 2-1 victory over Real Betis and Deportivo Alaves sharing the points in a 2-2 draw against Getafe. Here, I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks as these two squads kick off the new La Liga week. I fully expect both sides to come out with their guard up in this one, noting that both Alaves and Sevilla have managed to strike first in four of their last five matches, respectively. With that being said, Sevilla has had little trouble controlling proceedings in recent meetings between the two Spanish sides, going undefeated in the last nine matches, scoring first in five of the last seven. In fact, Alaves has gone nine consecutive matches without posting a clean sheet in this series. With relegation a distinct possibility for the first time in a number of years, this is without a doubt a key match for the home side, which has found some success in the hosts role this season. If Alaves are to come away with a point, they're likely going to need to keep this one scoreless for as long as possible, noting that Sevilla has been incredibly stingy, allowing only 18 goals in 26 La Liga matches this season. Finally, we'll note that eight of the last 10 matches between these two sides have totalled less than 2.5 goals. Take the under (6*). |
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03-03-22 | Fresno State v. San Diego State UNDER 116.5 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and San Diego State at 11 pm et on Thursday. There are times where the oddsmakers simply can't set a total low enough (or high enough) and I feel this is such a spot. Fresno State checks in off a relatively high-scoring 71-68 win over New Mexico last time out. Meanwhile, San Diego State has seen its last two games go 'over' the total. That only helps to keep this number in a playable range for us on Thursday. Both teams are capable of playing stout defense and slowing the game to a crawl. In fact, they prefer it that way. Fresno State has held opponents to an average of 22-of-50 shooting on the road this season while San Diego State has been even better here at home, limiting the opposition to just 20-of-53 field goals and only five made threes per game. While both teams are capable of 'filling it up' against the weaker teams in the Mountain West, that's rarely been the case in matchups with the conference's power teams. Note that the first meeting between the Bulldogs and Aztecs this season totalled just 105 points. We saw just 37 combined field goals made in that contest. The only thing that ended up boosting the total north of the century mark was the fact that the two teams knocked down 15 threes. Keep in mind, Fresno State and San Diego State combine to average just 12 made threes per game this season so a repeat performance isn't necessarily a sure thing in that regard. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with Fresno coming off an ATS loss this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-3 with the Aztecs following up consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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03-03-22 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 219 | Top | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10 pm et on Thursday. This will be the third meeting between these two teams since the start of February and while I often suggest that familiarity lends itself to lower-scoring basketball, I don't believe that will be the case in this particular spot. The Lakers have seen their last four games stay 'under' the total, helping keep this number in check on Thursday. Keep in mind, we're working with a considerably lower posted total than we saw in the most recent meeting between these two L.A. rivals just a week ago. The Clippers check in off three consecutive 'under' results. With that being said, they've actually been allowing opponents to get out and run, with each of their last five opponents getting off at least 90 field goal attempts. The fact that three of their last four games have come against the lowly Rockets has certainly contributed to their recent run of low-scoring games in my opinion. The last time these two teams met the Lakers got off 93 field goal attempts but knocked down less than 42% of them. I do look for them to improve on that shooting percentage here. What I'm not sure they can fix in short order is their defense, or lack thereof. The Lakers have yielded 40+ made field goals in six of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been 'filling it up' lately, knocking down 43, 48, 40, 51, 41, 34 and 42 field goals in their last seven contests. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 16-5 with the Clips playing at home off a road win over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of 226.2 points. Better still, the 'over' is 11-1 with the Clippers coming off three consecutive games in which they allowed 105 points or less over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 235.7 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-03-22 | Stanford v. Arizona UNDER 147.5 | 69-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Stanford and Arizona at 9 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Arizona's most recent game - a 91-71 blowout win at USC on Tuesday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Wildcats begin a two-game homestand to close out the regular season. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 142 points. We're dealing with a slightly lower posted total this time around but I'm not sure enough of an adjustment was made. Stanford got off a whopping 70 field goal attempts in that game yet still only got to 57 points. Here, I don't expect the Cardinal to attempt nearly as many shots, noting that they've gotten off just 54, 58, 49 58, 54 and 51 FG attempts over their last six contests. On the flip side, Stanford has done a good job of keeping opposing offenses in check lately, limiting its last five opponents to 70 points or less on 57 or fewer FG attempts. Arizona will obviously always be looking to push the pace, but I'm not convinced it will have to for a full 40 minutes here, noting it checks in as a nearly 20-point favorite at home. While the Wildcats offense gets all of the press, their defense deserves some credit as well as they've held opponents to just north of 62 points per game on a paltry 36% shooting at home this season. Stanford doesn't figure to pose much of a threat to those numbers as it averages just 22 made field goals per game including only six from beyond the arc on the road this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-03-22 | Memphis v. South Florida UNDER 131.5 | 73-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and South Florida at 9 pm et on Thursday. South Florida enters this game off four consecutive 'under' results while Memphis saw its most recent game stay 'under' the total despite scoring 80+ points in a rout of Wichita State. I look for another relatively low-scoring affair when the two teams meet up for their only regular season matchup on Thursday night. South Florida plays at an incredibly slow pace at home. For as poorly as things have gone for the Bulls at times this season, they have held opponents to just 61.3 points per game on 22-for-53 shooting on average here at home this season. The enter this game in fine form defensively, fresh off an upset win at Cincinnati, having held the opposition to just 20, 22, 16 and 19 made field goals over their last four games. Even with Memphis playing at a fairly fast pace lately, it has still managed to hold consecutive opponents to just 21 made field goals. Going back further, nine of the Tigers last 11 opponents have made good on 23 or fewer field goal attempts. Memphis itself has gotten off fewer than 60 FG attempts in four of its last five games. The only reason it was able to break 80 points last time out was because it shot the lights out (55% from the field). I'm not counting on a repeat performance here. Take the under (8*). |
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03-03-22 | Kings v. Spurs OVER 240 | 115-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and San Antonio at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Kings loss in New Orleans last night. We also won with the 'under' in the Spurs most recent game - a loss in Memphis on Monday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as the two teams meet up in San Antonio. Neither of these teams are playing a lick of defense right now. The Kings have allowed four of their last six opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field, giving up 40 or more field goals in 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Spurs have been even worse. Their last three opponents have knocked down 59, 47 and 48 field goals, all shooting better than 53% from the field. Offensively, the Spurs continue to roll, having put up 105 points or more in seven straight games, eclipsing the 120-point mark in four of those contests. While the Kings have hit a bit of a lull and were held under 100 points last night, I don't think they'll need to be coerced into getting involved in a track meet here. Prior to last night's game, Sacramento had scored 110+ points in four consecutive games. While we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total than we saw in the two previous matchups between these two teams this season, I believe the adjustment is warranted. Note that the last time these two squared off in San Antonio, they combined to score 253 points back in November. Take the over (8*). |
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03-03-22 | Pistons v. Raptors UNDER 218.5 | Top | 108-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Pistons enter Thursday's game in Toronto riding a 4-0-1 'over' run. Going back a little further, the 'over' is 6-1-1 in their last eight contests. I'm not convinced the pace has been there to warrant such a run, however, and I expect the tide to turn on Thursday night. Note that none of Detroit's last six opponents have gotten off more than 89 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Pistons have managed to shoot considerably better than their season average over their last three contests. I'm confident we'll see the Raptors defense step up and keep the Detroit offense in check here, noting that Toronto has limited eight of its last nine opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. The Raps themselves have been playing at a fairly fast pace but I suspect they'll look to 'manage' proceedings a bit here, noting that this is the front half of a back-to-back, not to mention the middle of a stretch that will see them play seven games in 10 nights. Toronto has done a terrific job of limiting the oppositions scoring opportunities here at home this season, holding them to an average of 38-of-83 shooting, while giving up less than 106 points per contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 18-8 with Detroit coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average of only 212.6 total points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 29-9 with Toronto coming off two or more consecutive wins over division opponents, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-03-22 | Canucks v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vancouver and New York at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Canucks have seen each of their last six games go 'over' the total but I look for that streak to come to an end on Thursday. Note that Vancouver still averages just 2.8 goals per game on the road this season and checks in averaging just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road off a road loss by 3+ goals over the last two seasons (19-game sample size), as is the case here following Monday's 7-2 loss in New Jersey. Backup goaltender Jaro Halak started that game. We should see Thatcher Demko back between the pipes for this one, noting that he has recorded a terrific .945 save percentage over his last four games. The Islanders are back home following a long road trip that wrapped up with a 5-3 loss in Colorado two nights ago. Note that the 'under' is 19-7 with New York coming off a game in which it allowed 5+ goals over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 9-2 with the Isles having scored 3+ goals in consecutive games this season as they've averaged just 2.2 goals per game in that spot. That's 0.4 goals per game lower than their season scoring average. New York will likely be without one of its top offensive threats again tonight in Mat Barzal as he continues to deal with a leg injury. Take the under (6*). |
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03-03-22 | Hurricanes v. Capitals UNDER 6.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Now that we have confirmation of the goaltending matchup, we can step in with a play on the 'under' in this divisional showdown. We actually won with the 'over' in the Caps most recent game - a wild 5-3 home loss to the Maple Leafs. With that being said, we lost with the 'under' in the Canes most recent game - a 4-3 overtime loss in Detroit two nights ago. We probably deserved a better fate in that one as the score was tied 1-1 entering the third period and was still 2-2 with less than five minutes remaining. Nevertheless, I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair on Thursday. The Canes started backup goaltender Antti Rantta in Detroit but will turn back to Frederik Andersen for this one. Andersen has been terrific, posting a .942 save percentage over his last four games. Going back over his last seven starts you'll see that the Canes gave up 0, 3, 3, 3, 3, 0 and 1 goal in those contests with the 'under' going 4-3. The Caps will have Vitek Vanecek back for his first start in over a month. He came on in relief of an ineffective Ilya Samsonov against Toronto on Monday and allowed just a single goal. In Vanecek's last 10 starts, the Caps allowed 2, 2, 3, 0, 3, 4, 2, 1, 0 and 3 goals with the 'under' cashing at a 6-4 clip. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Hurricanes playing on the road seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.6 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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03-02-22 | Blazers v. Suns UNDER 229 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Suns are having a difficult time adjusting to life without Chris Paul, having dropped consecutive games at home against the Pelicans and Jazz. I am confident we'll see them 'get right' on Wednesday as they host a reeling Blazers squad, but I'm more comfortable playing the 'under' than I am laying the points. Note that Phoenix has allowed just 105.6 points per game when coming off a loss over the last two seasons (39-game sample size), resulting in an average total of 218.1 total points and a 14-25 o/u record. When coming off an 'over' result this season, we've seen the Suns give up just 104 points per contest, leading to an average total of 218.5 points (28-game sample size). The Blazers check in allowing 112.6 points per game on the season, but that number drops to 109.4 ppg when coming off consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, leading to an o/u record of 5-14 in that spot. This is a game the Suns will want to 'manage' as it tips off a stretch of five games in eight nights (in four different cities). Following a pre-trade deadline fire sale, and with a number of key injuries including one to Jusuf Nurkic, the Blazers have managed to score only 95 and 92 points in two games since the All-Star break. Take the under (10*). |
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03-02-22 | LSU v. Arkansas UNDER 142 | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between LSU and Arkansas at 9 pm et on Wednesday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 123 points. While we're dealing with a lower posted total for this game than we did for that previous matchup, I'm not sure enough of an adjustment has been made. LSU has done a nice job defensively over the last month or so but unfortunately its offense hasn't always lived up to its end of the bargain. The Tigers have held five of their last six opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals while limiting five straight opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. It was actually their most recent opponent that got off those 56 attempts, that being Missouri in a game where it scored just 55 points on 20 made field goals. The Tigers are allowing just 24 made FG's per game including only six from beyond the arc on the road this season. Arkansas rolls into this matchup off four straight wins. While it did manage to come away victorious in both games, I'm not convinced it wants the pace up around where it was in its last two contests against Florida and Kentucky. Prior to allowing 26 and 30 made field goals in their last two games, the Razorbacks had held four of their previous five opponents to 24 made FG's or less, giving up 21 or less in three of those contests. The Hogs filled up the boxscore in their last two games but are also just two games removed from knocking down only 18 field goals in a very low-scoring game against Tennessee (106 total points). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 9-0 with LSU coming off consecutive ATS wins this season and 11-3 with Arkansas having won six or seven of its last eight games ATS over the last two seasons. Take the under (9*). |
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03-02-22 | Kings v. Stars -139 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Los Angeles at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. We've had a good handle on games involving the Stars lately, going six-for-six with our last six plays. Here, I like the spot for the Stars as they look to make the most of this two-game homestand (they won the opener 4-2 over Buffalo) before heading out on the road for seven of their next eight games. Note that Dallas has been terrific on home ice this season, going 19-8, outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals on average. Also note that the Stars are a perfect 6-0 when at home seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 4+ goals this season, as is the case here following a 4-0 loss in Los Angeles back in early December. They've averaged 4.7 goals per game and outscored opponents by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that situation. The Kings check in off an ugly 7-0 loss to the Bruins at home on Monday. That's the type of defeat that can linger a bit, especially given the fact it snapped the Kings five-game winning streak. Los Angeles is a solid 15-11 on the road this season but the margins have been slim as it has only outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.1 goals. While Jake Oettinger has been terrific between the pipes for Dallas lately, recording a .935 save percentage over his last four games, the Kings duo of Petersen and Quick has struggled. Petersen has posted a .892 save percentage over his last four games while Quick has recorded a .871 save percentage over his last four. Take Dallas (7*). |
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03-02-22 | Kings v. Pelicans UNDER 234.5 | 95-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. While this game is being priced as a potential track meet in the betting marketplace, I believe the total will prove too high. The Kings have been shooting the lights out lately but I'm not convinced it continues here. The pace hasn't necessarily been there but the Kings have seen three of their last four games go 'over' the total, despite the fact that they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in all four of those games while also limiting their opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts in each of their last three contests. The new-look Pelicans should pose a considerable challenge here. New Orleans has come out of the break holding the Suns and Lakers to 36-of-82 and 35-of-84 shooting, respectively, in posting consecutive wins. We'll see if their offensive surge will continue at home, where they average 109 points per game on 40 made field goals including only 11 made three-pointers per game here in the Big Easy this season. The Kings have limited the Pelicans to 109 and 99 points in two previous meetings this season. While the addition of C.J. McCollum has certainly provided a boost, I can see this as a big of a letdown spot for the home side, helping keep this one 'under' the inflated total. Take the under (8*). |
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03-02-22 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 223.5 | 108-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams just met on Sunday in New York in a game that totalled 234 points. We're dealing with a higher posted total as a result for this one, but I don't believe the adjustment is warranted. Keep in mind, Sunday's game saw a whopping 79 free throw attempts. It's highly unlikely we'll see a similar story unfold here, noting that the first two meetings between these two teams this season totalled only 211 and 199 points with no more than 32 free throw attempts in either contest. The 76ers average just 107.1 points per game when playing at home off a victory this season, as is the case here (19-game sample size). When playing at home following an 'over' result, that number drops to 104.3 points with an average total of just 207.3 points (12-game sample size). Finally, I'll point to the fact that the 'under' is 31-18 in the last 49 meetings between these two teams in Philadelphia. Take the under (8*). |
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03-02-22 | Pacers v. Magic OVER 232.5 | 122-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw this same matchup two nights ago with the Magic cruising to a 119-103 victory over the Pacers, easily staying 'under' the total. That was a tough back-to-back spot for the Pacers. Here, I expect them to put up more of a fight and I believe that lends itself to a high-scoring affair. Indiana has now scored more than 100 points in eight straight games. The problem is it has also allowed 100+ points in all eight of those games, with those eight opponents all scoring 107 or more points. Interestingly, the Pacers have allowed a whopping 123.9 points per game in games where the total has been posted at 230 points or higher over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Magic have topped out at 119 points this season, reaching that number on three different occasions. They enter tonight's game having posted exactly 119 points in consecutive games - in other words, they're playing their best offensive basketball of the season. Like the Pacers, they've had trouble keeping the ball out of their own basket, however, allowing 103 points or more in six straight games. They've actually been worse defensively at home compared to on the road this season, allowing 112.0 points per game here in Orlando. We've certainly seen the Magic make a concerted effort to push the pace a little more than usual lately, hoisting up 90+ field goal attempts in three of their last four games, knocking down 40+ field goals in all four contests. The Pacers will certainly afford them plenty of scoring opportunities in this one, noting that they've yielded 91, 101 (overtime), 91 and 96 FG attempts in their last four games. The 'over' checks in 13-3 over their last 16 contests. Take the over (6*). |
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03-02-22 | Duquesne v. George Washington -7.5 | 93-98 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on George Washington minus the points over Duquesne at 7 pm et on Wednesday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team struggling as badly as Duquense right now. The Dukes haven't won a game since January 8th and check into Wednesday's clash with George Washington having made a grand total of 79 field goals over their last four games, scoring 55 points or less in all four of those contests. On the flip side, they're not really offering up any defensive resistance, having allowed 29, 31, 29 and 27 made field goals over that stretch, despite none of those games being played at all that quick of a pace (those four opponents topped out at 59 field goal attempts). George Washington got bogged down by as superior George Mason squad on the road last time out but has been playing well in the longer-term picture, having gone 9-2 ATS over its last 11 games. Credit the Colonials for limiting George Mason to just 21 made field goals in that 69-62 loss on Saturday. GWU has held three straight opponents to 56 field goal attempts or fewer. If it can do that here it should be able to win in a walk, noting that it yielded a whopping 76 FG attempts in its last matchup with Duquesne on February 16th but still gave up only 52 points in a 21-point win. Take George Washington (9*). |
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03-02-22 | Real Sociedad v. Mallorca UNDER 2 | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Mallorca and Real Sociedad at 3 pm et on Wednesday. A key match for both of these sides as Real Sociedad looks to draw into one of the coveted top-six spots in the table while Mallorca tries to distance itself further from potential relegation. Neither side has been all that inspiring lately and I'm anticipating just such an affair on Wednesday. Mallorca has gone 11 matches without posting a clean sheet and will be hard-pressed to break that streak here but I do think we see it put forth a valiant effort. Note that Mallorca has allowed just 12 goals in 13 home matches in La Liga play this season. On the flip side though, Mallorca has also only scored 13 goals in those 13 home matches. Considering Sociedad hasn't yielded a single goal in its last four dates with Mallorca (all victories), it's likely to be tough sledding offensively for the home side in this one. Take the under (6*). |
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03-01-22 | Arizona v. USC OVER 149 | 91-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and USC at 11 pm et on Tuesday. The first meeting between these two teams totalled just 135 points. Both teams are coming off 'under' results. Those two factors only serve to keep Tuesday's posted total in check. Both teams are giving up a ton of opportunities right now. Arizona has allowed 12 of its last 13 opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Its only opponent over that stretch that didn't top the 60 FG mark was Washington and that was a game that still reached 160 points. USC has allowed 60+ FG attempts in six straight games. The Trojans aren't likely to force the Wildcats into a slugfest here and even if they could, that type of contest likely wouldn't favor them anyway given that the first meeting between these two teams this season was relatively low-scoring and still went Arizona's way by nine points. USC does come in having knocked down 59 shots in its last two games. The Trojans have won six games in a row and haven't seen consecutive games stay 'under' the total since February 3rd and 5th. Take the over (6*). |
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03-01-22 | Bruins v. Ducks +1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Anaheim +1.5 goals over Boston at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We were on the wrong side of the Bruins stunning 7-0 win in Los Angeles last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same puck-line play, this time in support of the Ducks on Tuesday. Boston is expected to turn to Linus Ullmark in goal tonight. That's worth noting as while last night's starter Jeremy Swayman has recorded an incredible .964 save percentage over his last four games, Ullmark has posted an .896 save percentage over his last four starts. In fact, you would have to go back 10 starts to find the last time the Bruins won a game by multiple goals with Ullmark in goal (5-1 win on January 12th at home against Montreal). Note that the Bruins are in a back-to-back spot here, a situation they've gone just 4-10 in, outscored by an average margin of 1.5 goals, over the last three seasons. They're also just 1-5 when playing on the road off five or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 1.5 goals on average in that situation as well. Finally, I'll point out that Boston has averaged just 2.1 goals per game and has been outscored by 0.6 goals on average when playing on the road seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last three seasons (15-game sample size), as is the case here after Anaheim skated to a 5-3 win in Boston back in January. The Ducks check in off consecutive home losses but have played .500 hockey here this season, outscoring opponents by 0.3 goals on average. Take Anaheim +1.5 goals (10*). |
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03-01-22 | Sharks v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Jose and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' when these two teams last met back on February 20th as the Golden Knights skated to a 4-1 win in San Jose. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. It's worth noting that the Knights have actually been a weaker defensive team at home than on the road this season, allowing 3.1 goals per game, good for a 16-11-2 o/u record and an average total of 6.3 goals scored. After being held to just 10 goals in their last six games combined, the Knights are certainly looking for an opportunity to bust out of their scoring slump, and this would appear to be an ideal spot to do just that, noting that they've scored 23 goals in their last five meetings with the Sharks and have won 12 of 13 matchups in this series over the last three seasons. The 'under' has cashed in each of Vegas' last three games - matching its longest such streak of the season. The last time it posted three straight 'unders', it followed it up with a 5-4 home win over the Ducks. As for the Sharks, note that the 'over' is 9-1 when they come off consecutive games totalling four goals or less over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 7.9 goals in that spot. Take the over (9*). |
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03-01-22 | Cincinnati v. Houston UNDER 136.5 | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Houston at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The Bearcats were embarrassed by Houston 80-58 on their home floor back on February 6th. In fact, this series has been all Cougars lately as they've taken each of the last three meetings by 20+ points. I do expect Cincinnati to put up more of a fight on Tuesday but if it is going to accomplish that, it will need to tighten things up defensively. The good news is, the Bearcats have done a better job of keeping opposing offenses under wraps on the road than they have at home this season. Note that they allow just 23 made field goals including only five made threes per game on the road this season. Houston has of course been lights out defensively all season but particularly of late. The Cougars have limited opponents to 20 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last 11 games. With the Bearcats having only managed to score 52, 54 and 58 points against them in their last three meetings there's a low probability that the Cougars suddenly get blitzed here. Note that Houston allows a ridiculously-low 18 made field goals including only six made threes per game here at home this season. Take the under (6*). |
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03-01-22 | Clippers v. Rockets +7 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Rockets took the Clippers down to the wire two nights ago, ultimately losing that game by a single point. While Houston has now lost nine consecutive games, it continues to do a nice job of controlling the tempo of the opposition, limiting four of its last five opponents to sub-90 field goal attempts. The problem is, the opposition has been making the most of those attempts, with 12 of its last 13 opponents shooting better than 50% from the field. The good news is, the Rockets limited the Clippers to 44% shooting on Sunday, giving them something to build off of here. Note that the Clips are at the opposite end of the spectrum, having allowed four straight opponents to get off 90+ field goal attempts. I certainly expect to see Houston improve on its 38% shooting effort on Sunday. Los Angeles enters this game off of three consecutive wins but is just 5-14 ATS as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, as is the case here, and has actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 points in that spot. All told, the Clips are 14-18 on the road this season, where they've been outscored by 2.3 points per game. Take Houston (10*). |
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03-01-22 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Jets | 4-8 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Since dropping a 5-3 decision against Buffalo on Super Bowl Sunday, the Canadiens have reeled off five consecutive wins, not coincidentally turning things around since Martin St. Louis replaced Dominique Ducharme as head coach. I like the way this spot sets up for the Habs as well and we'll grab the insurance goal as the price warrants such a play. Note that Winnipeg is coming off a come-from-behind 5-3 win in Arizona on Sunday. That puts it in a poor situation here noting that it has gone 0-6 when coming off a road win by two goals or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 2.2 goals in that spot. When playing at home off a win by 2+ goals over a division opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here, the Jets have gone just 5-13, outscored by 1.0 goal on average. They're also just 9-17 when playing at home after scoring 3+ goals in consecutive games over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. Finally, we'll note that the Jets have averaged a woeful 1.6 goals and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.4 goals when coming off a road victory in which they scored 4+ goals this season (five-game sample size). Take Montreal +1.5 goals (6*). |
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03-01-22 | Hurricanes v. Red Wings UNDER 6 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Red Wings are coming off a ridiculous 10-7 home loss to the Maple Leafs on Saturday night but I expect nothing of the sort to play out on Tuesday as they stay home to host the surging Hurricanes. Carolina checks in having allowed three goals or less in eight straight games and has given up just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season. You would have to go back four meetings to find the last time the Wings hung more than three goals on the Canes. Carolina skated to a 5-3 win in Raleigh in the first matchup between these two teams this season. That's worth noting as the Wings have posted a 14-28 o/u record when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 5+ goals over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.6 goals. Going back to that high-scoring result on Saturday here in Motown, the Wings have seen the 'under' go 8-1 when coming off a game that totalled 9+ goals this season, leading to an average total of just 4.3 goals in that spot. We have seen the Wings show the ability to tighten things up defensively when they need to here at home this season, allowing only 2.1 goals per game when playing at home after losing three of their last four contests, as is the case here. Take the under (7*). |
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03-01-22 | NJIT v. Stony Brook UNDER 139 | Top | 68-87 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
America East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Jersey Tech and Stony Brook at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these offenses are slumping right now and given the first meeting between the two squads this season totalled only 127 points, I'm not expecting anything resembling a track meet on Tuesday. New Jersey Tech has topped out at 24 made field goals in its last six games with that performance coming last time out, in a game in which it hoisted up 63 field goal attempts and still scored just 63 points. Stony Brook has made just 22, 18 and 24 field goals in its last three contests. We have seen the Sea Wolves tighten things up defensively over that stretch, however, yielding a grand total of just 63 made field goals over those three games. New Jersey Tech's last two opponents have shot the lights out, leading directly to a pair of 'over' results. The pace wasn't necessarily there in either of those contests and I don't believe it will be in Tuesday's game either. Take the under (10*). |
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03-01-22 | Tennessee v. Georgia OVER 145 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
SEC Regular Season Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Georgia at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. Georgia enters Tuesday's clash with Tennessee having seen the 'over' cash in five straight games and I look for that streak to continue here. The Vols should have little trouble 'filling it up' against the Bulldogs, noting that Georgia has allowed 30+ made field goals in five straight games. In fact, each of the Dawgs last three opponents have shot better than 51% from the field. The Vols will be looking to 'get right' offensively after struggling a bit with their shooting over their last five contests. I have no doubt that the Georgia defense will be the cure for what ails them. We have seen Tennessee make a concerted effort to push the pace over the last couple of games, hoisting up 60+ field goal attempts in consecutive wins over Missouri and Auburn. That quicker pace should open the door for the Bulldogs to contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total. Note that despite Georgia's recent struggles, it has shot reasonably well despite a slew of slower-paced contests. Also note that the Vols do send opponents to the free throw line 21 times per game on the road this season while Georgia has shown the ability to get there with some consistency at home, averaging 21 attempts per contest on this floor. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-22 | UCLA -8 v. Washington | 77-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Washington at 11 pm et on Monday. UCLA bounced back from a loss at Oregon to blast Oregon State by 39 points on Saturday. I look for the Bruins to build off of that incredible performance on Monday night in Washington. While UCLA isn't expected to have Johnny Juzang back for this game, that was certainly no obstacle on Saturday and I don't believe it will be tonight either. Washington is sagging defensively right now, having allowed 36, 30, 30, 27 and 24 made field goals, not to mention 60+ field goal attempts in nine straight games heading into Monday's contest. In stark contrast, UCLA has held each of its last seven opponents to 55 or fewer field goal attempts, allowing a grand total of only 96 made field goals over its last five games combined. Offensively, the Bruins are 'filling it up', knocking down 28 or more field goals in six of their last nine contests. This same matchup was no contest back on February 19th as the Bruins rolled to a 76-50 victory. Perhaps the Huskies can close the margin somewhat in this one, but not by enough to cover the very reasonable pointspread in my opinion. Take UCLA (6*). |
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02-28-22 | Bruins v. Kings +1.5 | 7-0 | Loss | -197 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 goals over Boston at 10:35 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams enter this game red hot and I'm certainly anticipated a tightly-contested affair on Monday night. With that being said, we'll grab the insurance goal with the Kings, even though we have to pay a significant tariff to do so. Here, we'll note that Boston checks in just 16-17 after giving up one goal or less in its previous game over the last two seasons with an even 3.0-3.0 scoring average in that particular spot. When coming off four or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, the B's have allowed 3.2 goals per game, outscored by an average margin of 0.2 goals in that situation. The Kings, meanwhile, have given up just 1.7 goals per game when coming off five or more consecutive victories over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. They're just 14-13 on home ice this season but have outscored the opposition by 0.3 goals on average. Take Los Angeles +1.5 goals (5*). |
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02-28-22 | New Mexico v. Fresno State -10 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Fresno State minus the points over New Mexico at 10 pm et on Monday. Fresno State finally snapped a four-game losing streak with a 65-40 blowout victory over Air Force last time out. I look for the Bulldogs to build on that positive result with another lopsided victory on Monday against New Mexico. The Lobos snapped a three-game losing streak of their own with a narrow victory over Air Force last Thursday. That came at home. The Lobos are just 2-10 on the road this season and have had little success in slowing opposing offenses, allowing 28 made field goals per game on better than 48% shooting. That's not to mention the fact that they're sending opponents to the free throw line a whopping 23 times per contest on the road this season. On the flip side, Fresno State allows just 19-of-50 shooting here at home this season, including only six made three-pointers per game and 13 free throw attempts per contest. The Bulldogs have held each of their last four opponents to 52 or fewer field goal attempts so I don't envision New Mexico enjoying a ton of quality scoring opportunities in tonight's game. Fresno State took the first meeting between these two teams by five points back in late January. The Lobos had nine more field goal attempts than the Bulldogs in that game but I expect that script to flip in this one. Take Fresno State (10*). |
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02-28-22 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 237.5 | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'under' in the Spurs most recent game - a wild 133-129 loss in Miami on Saturday. It was obviously from the jump that Miami took a win for granted in that game with the Spurs missing a number of key contributors including Dejounte Murray and Jakob Poeltl. Here, I don't think the Spurs will be so fortunate. Go up and down the San Antonio lineup and you'll see that virtually the entire roster shot the lights out in that game on Saturday. It will face a different challenge here though, with the Grizzlies coming out of the break playing solid defense, limiting Minnesota and Chicago to a combined 82-for-186 (44%) shooting. Note that the Grizz have held the Spurs to 105 and 110 points in two previous meetings this season. On the flip side, Memphis has scored fewer than 120 points in three straight games after eclipsing that mark in six consecutive games previously. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 13-5 with the Spurs playing on the road following an ATS win this season, leading to an average total of 218.7 points. Better still, the 'under' is 22-9 with San Antonio coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 216.4 points. The Spurs are coming off three straight 'over' results, matching their longest such streak of the season. Take the under (6*). |
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02-28-22 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Heat have now seen their last two games go 'over' the total and you would have to go back six games to find the last time they've held an opponent to under 100 points. Keep in mind, they've had only two stretches longer than five games without holding an opponent under the century mark on only two previous occasions this season. The pace hasn't necessarily been there for high-scoring affairs, but in Miami's most recent game, it shot better than 56% from the field while its opponent, San Antonio shot 55.6%. I don't expect that type of track meet to unfold here as the Heat will be looking to 'manage' proceedings before a back-to-back road set beginning on Wednesday night in Milwaukee. The Bulls are coming off one of their weaker offensive performances in weeks as they scored 110 points on 41.9% shooting in a loss to the Grizzlies on Saturday. This certainly isn't an ideal bounce-back spot noting they average right around 3.0 points less than their season average in terms of points per game on the road this season. Note that they've scored just 104 and 92 points in two previous meetings with Miami this season. Take the under (9*). |
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02-28-22 | Maple Leafs v. Capitals OVER 6 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Washington at 7:35 pm et on Monday. These two teams haven't met since back in October of 2019 so it's easy to forget how entertaining their previous matchups were. Going all the way back to November of 2017, their last seven meetings totalled 6, 7, 6, 9, 5, 7 and 7 goals. The Leafs are of course coming off a circus-like 10-7 win in Detroit on Saturday night. While that final scoreline was somewhat shocking, the fact is, high-scoring games involving the Leafs have been the norm when they play on the road this season. They're averaging 3.9 goals per game away from home but also giving up an average of 3.3. Goaltending continues to be an issue for Toronto with both Jack Campbell and Petr Mrazek struggling. We should see Campbell on Monday, noting that he has posted an .888 save percentage over his last four games. Washington hasn't been much better between the pipes, with Ilya Samsonov recording an .890 save percentage here at home, with the 'over' cashing at a 9-4 clip in his 13 starts. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 18-6 with the Caps coming off a game in which three total goals or less were scored over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 6.7 goals. Interestingly, the Caps check in allowing 3.6 goals per game when playing at home off a road loss over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 6.4 goals (15-game sample size). I don't expect goals to be hard to come by in this one. Take the over (7*). |
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02-28-22 | Central Connecticut State v. Fairleigh Dickinson OVER 135.5 | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Central Connecticut State and Fairleigh Dickinson at 7 pm et on Monday. The fact that this is a matchup between two bottom-dwellers in the NEC has most expecting a rather sloppy, low-scoring affair. I'm not so easily convinced. Rather than simply 'play out the string', we saw Fairleigh Dickinson throw caution to the wind down the stretch and it all started with a wild 91-82 loss against the same opponent it will face on Monday, Central Connecticut State, back on February 5th. Including that contest, FDU scored 82, 65, 82, 44, 93, 88 and 77 points. The Knights have essentially been stuffing boxscores since late January. They should have little trouble terrorizing a Central Connecticut defense that has been virtually non-existent this season. The question here is whether CCU can do its part to help this one 'over' the total. Given that it shot 50% on 64 field goal attempts when these two teams last met earlier this month and the fact that FDU has yielded 60+ FG attempts in six of its last eight games, allowing 30+ made field goals in half of those contests, I believe it can. We're dealing with a short pointspread for a reason in this game in my opinion, and I'm confident that the Blue Devils can 'fill it up' against a vulnerable FDU defense and ultimately keep within arm's reach, helping generate a flurry of late scoring as well, even if we may not even need that support. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-22 | Massachusetts v. Fordham -2 | Top | 73-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Game of the Month. My selection is on Fordham minus the points over UMass at 7 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up for Fordham as it looks to bounce back from an ugly performance at Davidson on Saturday. The Rams knocked down only 12-of-49 field goals in that contest, unable to build off consecutive home victories in their previous two games. I do expect a much stronger effort here as they host a reeling UMass squad on Monday. The Minutemen have dropped back-to-back games by 21 and 15-point margins. Opponents have absolutely been 'filling it up' against the UMass defense, pouring in 28+ made field goals in five of its last six games. On the flip side, Fordham has given up fewer than 20 made field goals in three of its last five games. Even in Saturday's blowout loss at Davidson, the Rams still gave up just 22 made field goals. They've held four of their last five opponents to sub-38% shooting from the field. That's nothing new. Fordham allows an average of just 23 made field goals, including only six from beyond the arc, and sends opponents to the free throw line only 16 times per contest here at home this season. That's all key as any success the Minutemen has had this season has generally been on the strength of its three-point (10 made per game) and free-throw shooting (20 trips to the line per contest). Take Fordham (10*). |
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02-28-22 | Cadiz CF v. Granada UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
La Liga Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Granada and Cadiz at 3 pm et on Monday. With home side Granada having gone winless in its last seven matches and currently sitting only three points clear of relegation and four points above today's opponent Cadiz, I'm anticipating a cagey affair between these two on Monday. A draw certainly wouldn't be the worst result for either side and for that to happen, I suspect the match will be of the low-scoring variety. Note that we've seen each of the last five matches in this series total 2.5 goals or less. Cadiz has gone undefeated in its last five matches with Granada so we know that despite its struggled in La Liga play this season, it can hold its own in this matchup. With Granada having gone six matches without posting a clean sheet, and with plenty of extra preparation time for this match, I am confident that it can hold down the Cadiz offense, however, noting that the latter has managed only 12 goals in 12 'away' matches this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-28-22 | Sampdoria v. Atalanta OVER 2.75 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atalanta and Sampdoria at 2:50 pm et on Monday. |
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02-27-22 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227 | 124-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Portland at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Blazers blowout loss to the Warriors on Thursday night but we were somewhat fortunate to do so as Portland had a difficult time just getting shots off, let alone scoring, as it attempted just 78 field goals and shot below 40%. Following a pre-trade deadline fire sale, not to mention the fact the Blazers are dealing with a number of key injuries, including one to Jusuf Nurkic, it's likely going to be a grind for them down the stretch. The Nuggets will be an unforgiving opponent on Sunday night. With that being said, Denver is playing its third game in four nights, in three different cities, and likely won't have much interest in a track meet here. The Nuggets didn't look to have the freshest legs last night as they knocked down just 38-of-82 (46.3%) of their field goal attempts against an awful Kings defense. While both of these teams have been trending to the 'over' lately, neither have been involved in what you would consider ultra fast-paced games lately. Nuggets opponents have hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in four of their last five games while the Blazers have limited the opposition to 90 or less FG attempts in six straight and 13 of their last 14 games overall. Take the under (6*). |
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02-27-22 | Islanders v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Anaheim at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. We've now seen three straight games go 'over' the total on the Islanders current road trip. While we've missed with the 'under' in their last two contests, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. We'll note again that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Isles coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of just 4.0 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 18-7 with New York coming off a game in which it allowed 5+ goals, as is the case here following last night's 5-2 loss in Los Angeles, resulting in an average total of 4.7 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 15-6 with New York playing on the road after suffering a loss by 3+ goals in their previous game, also the case here, leading to an average total of just 4.6 goals. The Ducks are coming off a lopsided defeat of their own against the Kings, dropping a 4-1 decision on Friday night. Note that they're still allowing just 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season, having posted a 12-15 o/u record here on the Pond. Save for a seven-goal explosion in Vancouver last week, the Ducks offense has been fairly quiet lately, scoring three goals or less in six of their last eight games overall. Interestingly, Anaheim has averaged just 2.0 goals per game at home in the second half of the season over the last two campaigns. Take the under (8*). |
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02-27-22 | Pistons v. Hornets UNDER 229.5 | Top | 127-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Hornets have absolutely abused the Pistons defense in two previous meetings this season, scoring 140+ points in both games. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday, however. Since giving up 141 points in a blowout loss at home against the Hornets on February 11th, the Pistons have held their last four opponents to 103, 111, 103 and 113 points. Their offense remains unreliable, noting that they've been held under 100 points three times over their last nine games and check in averaging just 101.2 points per game on the road this season. Worse still, they average just 100.6 points per contest when coming off consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Hornets went into the All-Star break losers of three games in a row but did respond with a 125-93 victory over the Raptors in their first game back on Friday. That marked the first time since January 21st they held an opponent to under 100 points and gives them something to build on heading into Sunday's game. Interestingly, the 'under' has gone 15-5 with the Hornets playing at home off consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 215.2 points. The 'over' is 2-0-1 in the Pistons last three games overall but the pace really hasn't been there, noting that two of Detroit's last three opponents got off just 77 field goal attempts while Detroit attempted just 86 and 87 field goals in its last two contests. This is the highest posted total we've seen in this series this season. Note that the 'under' is 21-12 with Detroit playing with double-revenge this season, resulting in an average total of just 212.1 points. Take the under (10*). |
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