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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-29-21 | Pelicans -9 v. Thunder | Top | 109-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans may appear to be in a tough situation on paper as they play the second of back-to-back nights off a two-point loss in Denver last night. However, they're actually in the same three-in-four situation as the Thunder and catch Oklahoma City in a letdown spot off an upset win in Boston two nights ago - the team's first victory since back on March 31st against the Raptors. In order to secure that win, the Thunder needed to shoot better than 48% from the field - their best shooting performance since April 10th against the 76ers (a game they lost by 24 points). Keep in mind, Oklahoma City is averaging just 106.5 points per game on 45.5% shooting here at home this season. Playing at a much quicker pace lately they can certainly turn this into a track meet but that should only serve to stretch out the margin. The Pelicans are bringing the proper level of intensity to the floor every night, having shot 47.1% or better from the field in five straight games, shooting north of 53% in three of those contests. Last night's game ended a streak of three straight contests holding their opposition to 43.6% shooting or worse. Note that the Pelicans check in ranked eighth in the league in opponents effective field goal percentage over their last three games. They rank tops in the league in floor percentage this season. Oklahoma City hasn't fared well as a home underdog this season, going 9-20 ATS, outscored by 12 points on average. They're also 3-11 ATS the last 14 times they've come off a non-conference game, outscored by an average margin of 15.9 points, and that's exacerbated further by the fact that they're in for an obvious letdown off the win over what seemed to be a disinterested Celtics team. This wouldn't appear to be an easy game for the Pelicans to get up for until you realize that Oklahoma City took the last meeting in this series by a single point as an eight-point underdog in New Orleans back on January 6th. The Pelicans may have overlooked the Thunder in that one after they took the first meeting here on this floor by 33 points on December 31st. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Pelicans v. Thunder OVER 230.5 | 109-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. |
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04-29-21 | Red Sox v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Boston at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Two clubs heading in opposite directions will meet on Thursday night in Texas as the Red Sox travel from New York to face the Rangers, who just wrapped up a series with the division-rival Angels. Boston enters riding a three-game winning streak thanks to some outstanding pitching. Here, I'm not sure they'll get such a positive performance from former Ranger Martin Perez. Opponents are hitting .290 against Perez this season, bumping his career opponents batting average all the way up to .283 - 31 points higher than the MLB average. His walk rate is up again after a miserable 2020 campaign in that department, while his strikeout rate remains well below the MLB average. He has always done a fairly good job of keeping opposing hitters off balance and limiting his hard-hit ball percentage but his ability to induce ground balls has dropped off considerably in recent years. So far this season he has recorded a 38.2% ground ball percentage - nearly 6% lower than the MLB average. Kyle Gibson will counter for Texas. He's enjoying a resurgence of sorts, building off an encouraging spring to post a 2.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through his first five regular season outings. Gibson has always been a good ground ball pitcher and he's on track for another solid year in that department having recorded a 53.2% ground ball percentage through 27 1/3 innings of work. Gibson's fly ball percentage is all the way down south of 14% so it's no surprise that he's yet to allow a home run this season. Also note that Gibson's strikeouts are up and his walks are down compared to last season and he's held opponents to a .235 collective batting average. While he won't be able to keep it up forever, I do like his chances of keeping the Rangers in the game in a bounce-back spot here tonight. Take Texas +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Dodgers -152 v. Brewers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -152 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Brewers aren't hitting right now and that has a lot to do with the players that currently aren't in their lineup including Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. They're in tough on Thursday night as they prepare to face Trevor Bauer and send out spot starter Eric Lauer. Lauer should get hit hard in this one as he makes his first appearance of the 2021 season. The former Padres castoff got in very limited work with the Brewers last season and didn't fare well, posting an ERA north of 13 and a 2.36 WHIP in just 11 innings of work. He's been hit hard over the course of his three-year big league career, to the tune of a 41.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 89.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both worse than the MLB average. He's not a ground ball pitcher by any means, with a career ground ball percentage 5% lower than the MLB average. Opposing batters hit a collective .347 off of him in limited action last season and I'm confident we'll see the Dodgers tee off tonight as well after finally waking up late in yesterday's eventual rout of the Reds. Trevor Bauer isn't off to a positive dominant start with his new club but he's certainly been good, and draws an undermanned Brewers lineup as I mentioned. Last year's N.L. Cy Young Award winner has held opposing hitters to a collective .135 batting average here in 2021 after posting a .159 opponents' batting average last season. His walks are down and his strikeouts are up and while he's recorded a relatively high fly ball percentage and home run percentage I would expect that to balance out in due time. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Canucks v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | 1-4 | Win | 102 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vancouver and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Canucks 6-3 loss in Ottawa last night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and go the other way and back the 'under' as they continue their road trip in Toronto on Thursday. This is of course a rematch of two games played in Vancouver last week, as the Canucks returned to the ice following a long layoff following a Covid outbreak and stunningly defeated the Leafs in consecutive games. Since then, Vancouver has gone 1-3 in four games against the Senators, scoring just eight goals in those four contests. Scoring will likely continue to be an issue on this trip as the Leafs are allowing just 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season and will certainly be up for this rematch with Vancouver. Note that the 'under' has gone 9-2 with the Leafs seeking revenge for a loss where they allowed four goals or more this season, as is the case here, with those games totaling just 4.6 goals on average. Toronto has allowed just 2.3 goals per game on average when in a revenge situation this season. Of course, it's been a struggle at the best of times for the Canucks when playing on the road this season, where they average just 2.7 goals per contest. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four of the last five meetings here in Toronto and nine of the last 11 matchups overall. Take the under (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Islanders +114 v. Rangers | Top | 4-0 | Win | 114 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Rivalry Game of the Week. My selection is on the Islanders over the Rangers at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Islanders are having a tough time finding an offensive spark right now, having scored just three goals during a three-game losing streak - with all of those losses coming against the Capitals. They'll be happy to face a different team here tonight, especially the rival Rangers here at Madison Square Garden where they've taken four of the last seven meetings. While the Rangers have won three games in a row and seven of their last nine overall, it's important to consider the level of opposition they've faced. Those nine games including games against the Devils (four), Islanders, Flyers (two) and Sabres (two). Outside of the Isles those other three are all non-playoff teams and could be considered among the worst defensive teams in the league. Here, the Rangers are in a tough spot having gone 3-10 the last 13 times they've played at home after winning three of their last four games, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that situation. While the Isles won't be confused for an offensive juggernaut any time soon, they are in a favorable situation here having averaged 4.0 goals per game the last eight times they've come off a one-goal loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that spot. Under the guidance of head coach Barry Trotz, the Isles have gone 14-7 the last 21 times they've played on the road after losing three of their last four games overall, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the David Quinn-coached rangers are just 18-30 when coming off a win over a division opponent, giving up 3.4 goals per game in that spot. Take the Islanders (10*). |
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04-29-21 | A's v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The A's bats have gone cold once again which makes this an opportune time for the Rays to bring up highly-touted left-handed pitching prospect Shane McClanahan for his first big league start. Of course, this won't be McClanahan's first MLB appearance as he got a taste of postseason action last October, making three appearances in the ALDS and World Series. All indications are that McClanahan is ready to make the permanent leap and could actually be fighting for a potential rotation spot should Ryan Yarbrough and Rich Hill continue to struggle. Chris Bassitt will take the ball for the A's. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I'm high on Bassitt despite his uneven start to the season. Bassitt finished eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and will earn just shy of $5M pitching for the A's this season. After a rocky start, he's settled down, recording better than MLB average hard-hit ball, line drive, ground ball and fly ball percentages. He's always done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park and so far this season he's posted a stellar 1.6% home run percentage. Command has been a bit of an issue in the early going but it should only be a matter of time before he works that out, noting that he owns a career walk percentage right around the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Baltimore at 1:05 pm et on Thursday. This has been a relatively low-scoring series, thanks in large part to the absence of the Orioles bats, with the 'under' cashing in each of the last three games. I look for that trend to continue this afternoon as we work with another inflated total. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for New York. He has held opposing hitters to a collective .190 batting average so far this season while recording better than MLB average hard-hit ball and ground ball percentages. The former A.L. Rookie of the Year Award contender (he finished sixth in voting in 2017) should make quick work of the O's slumping bats this afternoon. Meanwhile, O's starter Jorge Lopez owns an ugly 8.15 ERA and 1.42 WHIP so far this season but it's not all doom and gloom. Lopez has actually recorded a respectable 36.5% hard-hit ball percentage and 87.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 48.1% ground ball percentage. He's been bitten by the home run ball, which has pretty much been par for the course over his big league career, but he has also held opposing hitters to a reasonable .257 batting average. Perhaps he catches a break here with the Yanks fat and happy off consecutive blowout wins on getaway day. Take the under (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Coyotes v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams two nights ago as the Sharks snapped their long losing streak with a 6-4 win on home ice. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however, as the two teams wrap up a two-game set in San Jose. The Coyotes have scored four goals in each of their last two games but I'm not sure that level of production is sustainable given they had managed three goals or less in their six previous contests. Prior to potting six goals on Monday, the Sharks had been held to three goals or less in eight consecutive games. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-6 with the Sharks playing at home after losing four of their last five games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 5.2 goals. We've also seen San Jose post a 15-33 o/u mark when playing at home after allowing four goals or more in its last game over the last two seasons, with the Sharks averaging just 2.4 goals per game in that spot. Arizona checks in allowing just 2.1 goals per game after giving up five goals or more in a game this season, as is the case here, with that situation totaling just 5.1 goals on average. On the flip side, the Coyotes average just 2.6 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more. Take the under (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7 | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a pair of high-scoring contests to open this series and we've gone 1-1 backing the 'over' on Monday before missing with the Giants last night. Here, I'll back the 'under' as we should see a well-pitched game between two left-handed starters. German Marquez will take the ball for the Rockies. He's been terrific in the early going this season, recording a 38.0% hard-hit ball percentage and an 86.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Marquez has always been a good ground ball pitcher and he's been terrific in that regard early this season, recording a 60.8% ground ball percentage - 17.3% higher than the MLB average. His walk percentage is up by I would anticipate some improvement in that department given he owns a career 6.7% walk percentage - 1.8% lower than the MLB average. Alex Wood will continue his comeback for the Giants. He's pitching for his third team in as many seasons after getting in limited work over the last two years. Like Marquez, he's been effective in the early going this season, recording a 28.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.6 mph exit velocity. Also like Marquez, he's inducing ground balls at a tremendous rate having recorded a 60.7% ground ball percentage. There's reason to believe he can keep it up as he owns a career ground ball percentage 4.4% higher than the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Avalanche +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 2-5 | Loss | -204 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado +1.5 goals over Vegas at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. It's not often I'll make a play in this price range but I actually feel the price could be even higher with the Avs grabbing a goal-and-a-half in Las Vegas on Wednesday night. Colorado is of course coming off consecutive losses in St. Louis including an ugly 4-1 setback on Monday. The Avs already appeared to have one foot on the plane after falling behind big in that one, perhaps rightfully so as they were winding down a long four-game set against the Blues. I look for a much sharper effort from the Avs here, noting they've gone 15-5 when playing on the road off a loss by three goals or more over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. We've also seen the Avs go 25-8 the last 33 times they've been seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 1.6 goals per game in that spot. Vegas enters this game riding a nine-game winning streak but it has done so by beating up on the likes of Los Angeles, Anaheim and San Jose - three non-playoff teams - over its last eight contests. Note that Colorado has held its own here in Vegas, going 4-3 over the last seven meetings. Take Colorado +1.5 goals (9*). |
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04-28-21 | Lakers v. Wizards UNDER 226 | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Washington at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a track meet in Los Angeles back in February as they combined to score 251 points in a Wizards upset win. I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair this time around. The Wizards have been beating up on some bad defensive teams in recent weeks. They enter this game having scored at least 117 points in nine straight games but consider that seven of those contests came against the Kings, Pelicans, Pistons, Thunder (twice), Cavs and Spurs - a who's who of the league's worst defensive squads. Here, they'll face a Lakers team that checks in allowing just 104.8 points per game on 45.6% shooting away from home this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 19-11-1 clip. Since getting Anthony Davis back on the floor, Los Angeles has held each of its last three opponents to 48.8% or worse shooting after previously allowing two of its last three opponents to shoot better than 56% from the field. While the Lakers are coming off a 114-point performance against the lowly Magic two nights ago, they've actually been held to fewer than 98 points in six of their last 15 games which can be considered a real streak of offensive futility in today's NBA. Note that the 'under' has gone 14-5 with the Lakers playing on the road off an ATS loss this season with those games totaling an average of just 212.7 points. The 'under' is also 26-13 the last 39 times the Lakers have been seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they allowed 110 or more points, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 214.0 points. With Los Angeles revenging a home loss against an opponent under the guidance of head coach Frank Vogel they've seen an average total of just 215.1 points in 27 previous opportunities. Take the under (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Royals -115 v. Pirates | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City over Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Royals saw their five-game winning streak come to an end in a 2-1 loss to the Pirates last night. I look for them to start a new streak on Wednesday, however, as they hand the ball to Mike Minor against Mitch Keller. It's easy to forget that Minor is just one season removed from finishing eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting in an All-Star campaign with the Rangers in 2019. He was effective last year as well, splitting time with the Rangers and Royals and he's off to a fine start here in 2021. Minor has recorded a better than MLB average 37.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 87.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while holding opposing hitters to a collective .232 batting average through four starts, spanning 21 1/3 innings of work. It's been a completely different story for Pirates starter Mitch Keller. He had a miserable spring and hasn't been any better here in the regular season, posting an ERA north of seven and a 1.78 WHIP through four starts, covering a span of 16 1/3 innings. Opposing hitters have teed off on Keller to the tune of a 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 93.1 mph exit velocity with his line drive and fly ball percentages both sitting near 30% - considerably worse than the MLB average. For his career, opposing hitters are batting a collective .297 against Keller, 48 points north of the MLB average. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Canucks v. Senators OVER 5.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Ottawa at 5:35 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a low-scoring affair on Monday night as the Senators skated to a 2-1 victory in the third straight meeting between them. The 'under' has now cashed in each of the last three meetings here in Ottawa but I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'over' in this early start matchup on Wednesday. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-2 with the Canucks having lost two of their last three games this season, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. We've also seen the 'over' go 13-5 the last 18 times the Canucks have come off a game where three goals or less were scored, as is the case here, with that spot resulting in an average total of 7.1 goals. While the Senators aren't going to blow the doors off of anyone offensively, they do check in playing fairly consistent hockey in that regard, having scored an average of 3.25 goals per game over their last eight games. Take the over (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Reds v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two clubs last night as the Reds took a second straight game in the series by a 6-5 score. Clayton Kershaw will be tasked with being the stopper for the Dodgers on Wednesday as they look to end a three-game losing streak. After a miserable spring, Kershaw has taken no time at all to round back into form during the regular season, posting a 2.56 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 31 2/3 innings of work. While he's not the dominant pitcher he once was, he is coming off a 2020 campaign that saw him finish ninth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and play a big role in the Dodgers World Series championship. Here this season he's back to inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 46.0% ground ball percentage and an even more impressive 15.7% line drive percentage. He has held opposing hitters to a collective .218 batting average while recording a terrific 3.2% walk percentage and a 2.4% home run percentage. The Reds will give the nod to Sonny Gray for his third start of the campaign. He missed time in the spring due to injury and is clearly still trying to round into form. I expect that to happen sooner rather than later and note that he has recorded an excellent 33.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 29.3% strikeout percentage through limited work (8.0 innings pitched) so far this season. Walks have been an issue, just as they always have, but we can certainly anticipate some positive regression to the mean when it comes to his 12.2% walk percentage. Note that despite the 'over' cashing in the first two games in this series, the 'under' remains a solid 29-13 in the Reds last 42 games when priced as a road underdog between +125 and +175, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take the under (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Manchester City v. Paris Saint-Germain OVER 2.75 | 2-1 | Win | 50 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Note: I'm recommending a play on the alternate total of 2.5 goals, which should be available at most books. We saw a low-scoring match in the first Champions League semi-final match yesterday as Real Madrid and Chelsea played to a 1-1 draw. Here, I expect a different story to unfold as PSG hosts Manchester City. There was some concern that PSG superstar Kylian Mbappe may not be fit for this match after he was forced to leave the team's last game (after scoring a pair of goals) with a leg injury. All indications are that he is good to go, however, which obviously gives PSG a big boost, and a puncher's chance against an elite Manchester City squad. It's interesting to note that PSG has played very different styles in the first leg compared to the second leg in its last two Champions League rounds. Against Barcelona it racked up four goals in the first leg before playing it smart in a 1-1 draw to win 5-2 on aggregate. Next up against mighty Bayern Munich, PSG put up three goals in the opener before dropping a 1-0 decision in the second leg to advance on away goals. Here, I look for PSG to once again employ an attacking style in the opener against Man City, knowing it isn't built to prevail in a low-scoring affair, and also with its hopes of a Ligue 1 title dwindling, eager to throw everything it has at the drive toward a Champions League crown. You would have to go back to March 13th to find the last time Man City scored more than two goals in a game. With that being said, it has been incredibly consistent offensively in UCL play, scoring 11 goals in its last five matches. I certainly expect Man City to be afforded plenty opportunity to find the back of the net in this one, noting that PSG benefited in the quarters by facing a Bayern Munich squad without Robert Lewandowski (Bayern still managed to score a goal without him in the second leg). Speaking to City's depth up front is the fact that Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus will once again likely be relegated to the bench but could certainly be called upon should it need a spark in this one. I'm anticipating a 2-1 or 2-2 final scoreline here. Take the over 2.5 goals (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Rockies v. Giants -165 | 7-5 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Colorado at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Giants have exceeded expectations so far this season, off to a 15-8 start following last night's 12-0 rout of the Rockies. Many expected Colorado to be one of baseball's worst teams and that's held true so far as they check in 8-14 on the campaign. Interestingly, the Rockies had won five of their last seven games prior to last night's setback but all seven of those games were played at home, where they've been a much different team. Chi Chi Gonzalez will get a spot start for the Rockies here. He's been alright in four appearances so far this season but certainly not dominant by any means. That's pretty much par for the course over his big league career. Gonzalez has yet to allow a home run this season but noting he has recorded a 4.0% and 3.3% home run percentage over the last two seasons with the Rockies, we can anticipate some regression to the mean in that department. Also note that his strikeout rate is down while his walk rate is north of 11.0% for the third straight season, albeit with a small sample size. Aaron Sanchez gets his fifth start of the season for the Giants. He's looking to make a comeback to respectability after a cup of coffee with the Astros last season. So far, so good as Sanchez has posted a 1.83 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 19 2/3 innings of work. He's gotten back to what made him so successful early in his career with the Blue Jays, keeping the ball down in the zone and inducing lots of ground balls. Sanchez has recorded a 61.0% ground ball percentage and 15.3% fly ball percentage so far this season, a perfect recipe for pitching in San Francisco. His strikeout rate is down slightly but his walk rate is down significantly as he seems to have improved his command and should be able to continue to pitch well against a Rockies club that hits a miserable .195 on the road this season. Note that Colorado checks in 4-21 the last 25 times its been on the road revenging a loss where it scored a run or less over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.5 runs in that situation. Meanwhile, the Giants are 23-10 after allowing three runs or less in consecutive games over the last three seasons, averaging 5.4 runs per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 runs in that spot. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Hurricanes -124 v. Stars | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on Carolina over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Hurricanes got off a miserable start last night and despite rallying they ultimately fell short in a 4-3 overtime loss. I look for them to bounce back on Tuesday as they cool off the surging Stars in Dallas. Note that Carolina checks in allowing just 2.0 goals per game when playing on the road following a one-goal loss in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. They've allowed just 1.8 goals per game the last 12 times they've played on the road following an overtime setback, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, Dallas checks in allowing 3.3 goals per game after posting consecutive one-goal victories over division opponents (the last eight times that situation has come up). The Stars will have to contend with a Canes squad that averages an impressive 3.7 goals per game when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. It's been a true case of 'feast or famine' for the Stars offense for much of the season, noting that they average 3.3 goals per game on home ice but have only managed to go an even 13-13. Look for Carolina to get off to a more favorable start in tonight's game and snap its two-game skid, noting that it hasn't dropped three games in a row since March 16th-20th. Take Carolina (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. It's been a long time coming but White Sox ace Lucas Giolito will finally get his opportunity to bounce back from a miserable performance in his last start in Boston eight days ago as he draws a favorable matchup against a weak Tigers lineup. Despite that ugly outing against the Red Sox on Patriots Day, Giolito still owns tremendous numbers across the board this season. He's kept opposing hitters off balance to the tune of a 34.0% hard-hit ball percentage and an 86.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His strikeout percentage sits at 32.1% and while you would assume some regression would be coming in that department, keep in mind he has posted a strikeout percentage north of 30% in each of the last two seasons. Opponents are hitting just .230 against Giolito this season, which is pretty much par for the course in terms of his career numbers as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .222 batting average since breaking into the bigs in 2016. Note that the 'under' is 28-14 in Giolito's last 42 starts against division opponents. Jose Urena will counter for Detroit. He had a strong spring with his new club and while things haven't gone superbly through four regular season starts, he has been serviceable at least. I like the fact that Urena is inducing ground balls at a good clip, having posted a 50.0% ground ball percentage and an even more impressive 12.9% fly ball percentage. While he needs to get his walks down, he has improved considerably on his strikeout rate. Going back to last season with the Marlins, opposing hitters have posted a collective batting average right around .240 against him, which is considerably better than the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring contest between these two teams in last night's series opener as the Astros cruised to a 5-2 victory. Note that the 'over' is 28-14 in the Mariners last 42 games as a road underdog priced between +150 and +200 with those games totaling well over 10 runs. We've also seen the 'over' cash at a 17-6 clip in the Mariners last 23 night games played on the road. The Astros have now scored at least five runs in four of their last five games and should be able to keep it going against Mariners starter Marco Gonzales on Tuesday. Opponents are seeing the ball well against the Mariners supposed ace, as he's recorded a 42.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both well north of the MLB average. His 6.3% home run percentage and 8.3 walk percentage spells trouble against an Astros lineup that can mash here at home. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. His 36.4% strikeout percentage isn't sustainable in my opinion as he comes off a fantastic performance last time out. I do think it's only a matter of time before his 43.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 26.7% ground ball percentage/40.0% fly ball percentage catches up with him, especially pitching here in Houston. After recording an ugly 5.1% home run percentage in 54 1/3 innings of work last season he's yet to allow a home run here in 2021. Expect that to change on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Lightning v. Blackhawks +1.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -147 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab the insurance goal with the Blackhawks here as the situation sets up well for them to keep pace with the Lightning on home ice. Note that Tampa Bay is just 3-7 in its last 10 games following a one-goal victory, allowing 3.8 goals per game and outscored by an average margin of 1.0 goal in that situation. Worse still, the Bolts are 1-5 in their last six games off an overtime win, allowing 4.3 goals per game and outscored by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks are 10-2 at home off a loss against a division opponent this season, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average. They're also a solid 24-18 in their last 42 games after giving up three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, allowing 2.8 goals per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.1 goals (only notable due to the fact we're grabbing the +1.5 here) in that situation. Finally, it's worth mentioning that Chicago has gone 19-8 when playing at home off a loss by two or more goals over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that spot. Tampa has taken three straight meetings in this series by multiple goals but this is a tough one-game road trip with the Blackhawks sitting at home well rested following three days off. Take Chicago +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Thunder v. Celtics -11.5 | 119-115 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Oklahoma City at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We haven't faded Oklahoma City much during its current 3-14-1 ATS slide but I will do so on Tuesday as the Thunder limp into Boston following back-to-back losses by 20+ points. Boston is expected to be without Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum but I don't expect it to roll over in their absence. The Celtics are coming off an 0-2 trip to Brooklyn and Charlotte which included an ugly 21-point rout at the hands of the Hornets on Sunday afternoon. Note that Boston checks in a perfect 9-0 ATS the last nine times it has come off a double-digit road loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by a whopping average margin of 17.2 points in that situation. The C's average north of 125 points per game in that spot and should be able to feast on a Thunder squad that have allowed their last two opponents to shoot 51.6% and 54.7% from the field. Despite Sunday's poor showing, the Celtics are fairly locked-in defensively, having held five of their last eight opponents to 45.6% or worse shooting. Note that Oklahoma City averages just 94 points and loses by an average margin of 17.2 points when playing on the road after giving up 120 points or more this season. The Celtics took the first matchup in this series this season by 17 points in Oklahoma City back on March 27th and I expect a similar outcome here. Take Boston (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Red Wings v. Blue Jackets -136 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Columbus over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. It's not easy to back the Blue Jackets these days but I believe the price is right to get behind them as they look to snap their nine-game losing streak against the Red Wings on Tuesday night. Note that Columbus has gone 7-1 the last eight times it has played at home off seven or more consecutive losses, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. The Blue Jackets are also 10-2 when returning home following three or more consecutive road games over the last three season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that spot. Detroit, meanwhile, has gone a miserable 6-37 when playing on the road off a loss over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.1 goals per game. Columbus has gone a nice job of tightening things up defensively in similar situations in recent years, allowing just 2.1 goals per game when playing at home off an overtime loss over the last three seasons. While the Jackets are reeling, I'm not going to get too down on them as they're off a very tough six-game road trip that saw them face a surging Stars squad, the Panthers and the Lightning - with the latter two serving as two of the league's top teams. Three losses during their current skid came on home ice, but the first was in a revenge spot for the Lightning and the other two certainly could have gone either way as they dropped consecutive one-goal decisions against the Blackhawks. Note that Columbus has won three of its last four meetings with Detroit on home ice. Sitting two points behind the Wings in the standings you have to think that pride kicks in for the Jackets here. Take Columbus (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams in the opener of this series last night. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Yankees send Corey Kluber to the hill against Bruce Zimmermann of the Orioles. Kluber is clearly on the downside of what has been a tremendous career. He's posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.93 WHIP through four starts. Most concerning is his 30.4% fly ball percentage and 4.1% home run percentage, especially as he prepares to pitch at hitter-friendly Camden Yards on Tuesday. Kluber's command just hasn't been there since the start of the 2019 season, due to injuries and otherwise. He checks in with an ugly walk percentage north of 15% through four starts this season. Zimmermann has been average at best as a back-end of the rotation starter for the Orioles. Like Kluber he has also posted a worse than MLB average fly ball percentage at 23.5% while inducing ground balls at a poor rate (38.2% ground ball percentage this season). His career home run percentage sits at 5.0% compared to the MLB average of 3.4%. Again, not a good sign as he faces a homer-happy Yankees lineup at Camden Yards. Over the course of Zimmermann's brief big league career, opposing hitters own a collective .269 batting average and .481 slugging percentage against him. Note that the 'over' is 43-26 in the Yankees last 69 division games away from home and 45-29 in the Orioles last 74 games as a home underdog priced +125 or higher. Take the over (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Royals v. Pirates OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Royals didn't need a lot of offense to sweep the light-hitting Tigers over the last four days but I look for their offense to come to life in Tuesday's Interleague series-opener in Pittsburgh. Jakob Junis gets the start for Kansas City. While he owns a solid 3.71 ERA and 1.18 WHIP it's probably only a matter of time before we see those numbers inflate considering he has recorded a 52.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 93.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. To put it simply, Junis isn't fooling opposing hitters in the early going this season. While his strikeout rate is up, so is his walk rate. Opponents are hitting a collective .230 against him but we can anticipate some regression in that department as he owns a worse than MLB average career opponents' batting average of .271. Tyler Anderson makes his fifth start of the season for the Pirates. As we've noted before, Anderson is pitching for his third club in as many seasons. He's not an awful pitcher by any means but certainly can be taken advantage of by what I would consider an above average Royals lineup. Note that Anderson owns worse than MLB average career numbers in terms of opponents batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage and that has held true in the early going this season. He hasn't induced ground balls at better than a 38.9% ground ball percentage since back in 2017 (the MLB average is 43.5%). Expect plenty of offense at PNC Park on Tuesday night. Take the over (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Twins v. Indians UNDER 8 | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. Last night's series-opener between these two teams found it's way 'over' the total thanks to a walk-off two-run home run from the Indians in extra innings. That's quite simply a risk that has to be factored in these days in MLB (we lost in a similar situation with the Reds hitting a two-run home run in extras against the Dodgers last night, spoiling our 'under' bet). Here, I'm anticipating another well-pitched game. Kenta Maeda has gotten off to a surprisingly horrible start to the season after a terrific spring. The numbers aren't pretty but I'm confident in Maeda's ability to bounce back, noting that he finished second in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and also finished third in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting as a member of the Dodgers back in 2016. There is some reason for encouragement as Maeda has recorded a better than MLB average walk percentage at 5.7% so far this season. Opposing hitters are batting a collective .354 against him but we're bound to see some regression as he owns a career .225 opponents' batting average. He should benefit from facing a relatively light-hitting Indians lineup on Tuesday. Aaron Civale will counter for the Indians. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I've been high on him all season. With that being said, he couldn't make an early 3-0 lead stand up in his most recent start against the Yankees. Here, I look for a positive response from Civale, noting that he has recorded a 33.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a better than MLB average 44.6% ground ball percentage. Civale's walks are up but so are his strikeouts (slightly) and he's held opposing hitters to a collective .161 batting average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Chelsea +0.5 v. Real Madrid | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chelsea +0.5 goals over Real Madrid at 3 pm et on Tuesday. Note: I'm recommending playing this at +0.5 goals which may be an alternate goal-line at your book. I get the feeling many bettors feel that backing Real Madrid in the first leg of this Champions League semi-final matchup will serve as a safe investment given the fact that Los Blancos haven't lost a match since January (they're riding a 17-game unbeaten streak). Of course, Real Madrid also has the Champions League pedigree with 13 all-time wins and has the benefit of playing at home. That's not to mention the fact that Real will have Eden Hazard back on the pitch after he returned and played 30 minutes in its last match. However, I don't expect Chelsea to simply roll over. Yes, the Blues have one eye on the Premier League, where they sit fourth in the table by the slimmest of margins but there's no question they'll have little trouble getting up for this trip to Spain to face a true world football power. While Real Madrid has Hazard at possibly less than 100% health and will be without Sergio Ramos as he continues to work his way back from injury, Chelsea has a full squad for this semi-final opener. The Blues certainly weren't happy with their performance in their last Champions League match as they lost 1-0 against Porto on home soil (after taking the first leg 2-0 in Sevilla to hold on for a 2-1 aggregate victory). They'll be looking to make amends here and while Real Madrid serves as an extremely difficult squad to break down, I expect the Blues to keep pace for the full 90+ minutes. Take Chelsea +0.5 goals (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Reds v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday. Cincinnati got off to a strong start offensively this season but has fallen into a deep slump during a seven-game slide, scoring four runs or less in five of those games. On a positive note, Reds starter Tyler Mahle has seemingly been getting better with each passing year and through four starts here in 2021 has put it all together for a tremendous start to the campaign. Mahle has recorded a 33.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. After opposing batters hit a collective .198 against him in 47 2/3 innings last season, they're hitting a paltry .130 against him this season. While Mahle's command has been a bit of an issue with an 11.3% walk percentage, he has made up for it by posting an incredible 38.8% strikeout percentage. While some regression is certainly in order in that last department, he does catch the Dodgers in a favorable spot here off an emotional series against the Padres following a wild 8-7 extra innings loss last night in which they blew a late 7-1 lead. Julio Urias will be asked to get the Dodgers back on track on Monday and he would appear to be the right one to do it. Urias had a terrific spring and he's picked up right where he left off during the regular season, posting a 2.81 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through four starts. He's not doing it with smoke and mirrors either, as he's recorded an incredible 28.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He's improved on both his strikeout and walk percentages, albeit with a relatively small sample size, and has held opposing hitters to a collective .211 batting average. For his career, opponents are hitting just .232 against him, nearly 20 points lower than the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Ducks v. Kings -154 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Monday. This really has been a lost season for both of these California rivals but it's the Ducks that are in even worse shape down the stretch, having lost four straight games, scoring just four goals in the process and now dealing with a cluster of key injuries. This is an awful spot to begin with for Anaheim as it has gone 0-11 when revenging a loss against an opponent by three goals or more this season, outscored by 2.2 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Kings are in a solid bounce-back spot off Saturday's 4-0 home loss to the Coyotes (we won with the 'under' in that game) as they average 3.4 goals per game and outscore the opposition by 1.4 goals on average when coming off a loss by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons. Also note that Los Angeles averages an impressive 3.9 goals per game after losing four of its last five games this season and 3.3 goals per contest after giving up three or more goals in consecutive games here in 2021. While the Kings check in off consecutive losses, they haven't dropped three games in a row since April 2nd to 5th. The Ducks current four-game skid doesn't come close to matching their longest losing streak of the season, which covered a span of nine games from February 15th until March 5th. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-12 | Win | 105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The 'under' in San Francisco probably looks like a pretty safe place to put your money at the start of a new week, after all the Giants have posted a 2-7-1 o/u mark at home this season and we already saw a three-game series between these two teams here in San Fran deliver three consecutive 'under' results earlier this season. I'm going to go the contrarian route here, however, noting that we have a very average pitching matchup with Austin Gomber against Anthony DeSclafani and with both teams getting their second look of the season against those starters. Gomber continues to struggle with his command at the big league level, recording an inflated 17.2% walk percentage in the early going this season, moving his career percentage to 11.5% - nearly 3% higher than the MLB average. He has done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance with a 30.8% hard-hit ball percentage but I'm concerned about his 38.5% fly ball percentage and we're bound to see some regression to the mean when it comes to his .143 opponents batting average so far this season. Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani has been hit hard to the tune of a 48.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.1 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He's never been what you would call a ground ball pitcher but so far this season has recorded a ground ball percentage north of 58%. He's been a little less effective with each passing start, however, and I look for him to face a significant challenge against a Rockies club that has been surprisingly tough at the plate lately, scoring five runs or more in five straight and seven of their last nine games overall. Take the over (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Grizzlies +4 v. Nuggets | 96-120 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Monday. This would appear to be a pretty obvious fade spot for the Grizzlies as they wrap up a long, successful seven-game road trip with a second stop in Denver in less than a week. However, the Grizz have done nothing but impress and off another big performance in a win over the Blazers yesterday, I look for them to keep it rolling on Monday. While this is certainly a tough back-to-back spot for Memphis, it is worth noting that it managed its starters minutes well in yesterday's game, with no one playing more than 30 minutes. Jonas Valanciunas just returned yesterday after missing time due to a concussion so he should have fresh legs for this one. The Grizz know they can hang with the Nuggets having taken Denver to overtime (without Valanciunas and Dillon Brooks) just last week. Meanwhile, Denver was already without Jamal Murray and is now missing key secondary scorer Will Barton as well. The Nuggets shot the lights out in a lopsided win over the lowly Rockets on Saturday but that actually sets them up poorly here, noting they've gone 6-17 ATS the last 23 times they've come off a 55% or better shooting performance, outscored by an average margin of 4.3 points in that spot. They're also just 23-38 ATS after scoring 120 points or more over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.5 points on average in that situation. The Grizzlies are quite simply the hottest bet in the league and locked in defensively right now, having held their last three opponents to 45.2%, 47.9% and 37.1% shooting. Take Memphis (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Oilers v. Jets +100 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
NHL North Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Winnipeg over Edmonton at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Jets bandwagon has essentially cleared following a three-game losing streak that started with a 3-0 loss to the same Oilers squad they'll play on Monday night. There's no need to push the panic button as Winnipeg is still firmly entrenched in one of four North Division playoff spots. The time to turn things around is certainly now, however, and I like their chances of doing just that on Monday night. The Oilers will be playing just their fifth game since April 10th and I do think we could see rust become a bit of a factor here. Note that the Jets are in a favorable spot here, having averaged 3.6 goals per game after scoring a goal or less in their previous contest this season and better still, averaging 3.9 goals per game when coming off a home loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons. Also note that Winnipeg has gone 23-11 when revenging a loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals per game in that situation. The Jets also check in 21-10 after losing consecutive games over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.7 goals on average in that spot. The Oilers are a long-term losing proposition when playing with three or more days rest, having gone 60-97 in their last 157 games in that situation, outscored by 0.3 goals on average. Finally, note that Edmonton averages just 2.2 goals per game when playing on the road after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games this season. The Oilers have taken four straight meetings and five of seven games in this matchup this season which should only help ratchet up the Jets motivation level for this one. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Suns v. Knicks UNDER 215 | 118-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. This is a very low total by today's NBA standards but it's warranted in my opinion. The Suns don't get enough credit for their defense. They check in allowing just 108.4 points per game on 46.1% shooting this season but will need to refocus after a real flat performance in Brooklyn yesterday, allowing 128 points in a lopsided defeat. Note that the 'under' has gone 19-9 with the Suns coming off an 'over' result, as is the case here, over the last two seasons. Perhaps yesterday's lull was to be expected as they simply couldn't ratchet up the intensity following a two-day layoff which came on the heels of three games in four nights on the road against the Bucks, 76ers and Celtics. I do expect a solid bounce-back performance here, noting that Phoenix has allowed just 106.6 points per game following an ATS loss this season. Despite its defensive exploits, New York has seen the 'over' cash in six of its last seven games overall. Keep in mind, it has held five of seven opponents to fewer than 110 points over that stretch, which is an accomplishment by today's NBA standards. The Knicks check in allowing 105.6 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home this season. The 'under' has gone 19-9 the last 28 times the Knicks have come off an outright win as an underdog, as is the case here as they were inexplicably +1 against the Raptors on Saturday. That situation has produced just 109.4 total points on average over the last two seasons. With the Suns eager to get on a plane to head home at the end of a tough five-game road trip and the Knicks rested and ready playing their fifth game of a six-game homestand following a day off on Sunday, I'm not anticipating any sort of track meet on Monday night. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Cubs v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 7-8 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Monday. It's been a case of 'feast or famine' with both of these offenses in the early going this season and I'm expecting runs to come at a premium in Monday night's series-opener in Atlanta. Cubs starter Zach Davies is off to a rough start with his new club which is somewhat surprising after he looked dominant at times in the spring. He labored through his first outing against Atlanta this season, allowing four earned runs on seven hits over four innings. Note that despite Davies' poor performance that game still stayed 'under' the total. Davies' three career starts against Atlanta have all stayed 'under'. There are positives for Davies to draw on here as he has posted a better than MLB average line drive percentage at 22.8% and a respectable 22.8% fly ball percentage. Davies hasn't been a true ground ball pitcher since the early part of his career but his ground ball percentage falls right around the MLB average this season. He catches a break here with the Braves still having a tough time stacking strong performances at the plate, scoring five runs or less in seven of their last eight games. Like Davies, Braves starter Charlie Morton also had a terrific spring and he's off to a fine start to the regular season as well, although there is still room for improvement. Morton is a true ground ball pitcher and has recorded a 48.3% ground ball percentage and 15.5% fly ball percentage through four starts. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down and he's held opposing hitters to a collective .235 batting average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Hawks v. Pistons OVER 217 | Top | 86-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We cashed our free play on the 'under' in the Hawks upset win over the Bucks last night (we also won our premium play on Atlanta) but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as Atlanta heads to Detroit to face the Pistons on Monday. While losing Trae Young to a knee injury certainly struck a serious blow to the Hawks offensive prospects, the cupboard is by no means bare, as we saw in last night's come-from-behind victory over the Bucks. With the likes of Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovich, Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Huerter and Lou Williams, the Hawks are still a formidable offensive squad and they should be able to have their way with the Pistons, who are in for some regression after holding their last two opponents to 46.2% and 41.7% shooting. Note that Detroit has still allowed three of its last five opponents to shoot 48.8% or better from the field. It has had no answers for the Hawks in a pair of meetings this season, giving up 128 and 123 points. Note that the 'over' has cashed in six of the last eight meetings in this series. While I do have a lot of respect for the Hawks defense, as I noted in my analysis of yesterday's plays on Atlanta and the 'under', this is obviously a letdown spot playing their second of back-to-backs in a very winnable matchup with the Pistons. I'm not sure we'll see the Hawks bring the same level of defensive intensity we saw against the Bucks last night. Note that Detroit shot just 40.6% from the field but still managed to score 109 points in an up-tempo affair in Indiana two nights ago. I'm expecting another fairly fast-paced contest here, noting that the Pistons have had little success slowing the pace of their opponents, yielding at least 92 field goal attempts in five of their last seven games. The 'over' has gone 16-6 with the Pistons coming off consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 222.3 points. Meanwhile, Atlanta checks in having allowed 119.2 points per game following consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 231.3 points. Take the over (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Avalanche v. Blues UNDER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and St. Louis at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We've seen three straight relatively high-scoring affairs between these two teams with 7, 6 and 8 total goals scored. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as the Avs and Blues wrap up their three-game set in St. Louis. Note that you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd and 4th to find the last time the Blues posted consecutive 'over' results on home ice. While they certainly haven't been great defensively, they do check in having allowed four goals or less in seven consecutive games, which is encouraging after they had given up five goals or more four times during their previous 12-game stretch. The Avs are obviously in a prime bounce-back spot here but since we're looking at the total, consider that the 'under' has gone a perfect 5-0 the last five times Colorado has played on the road off a loss, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.2 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 19-9 the last 28 times the Avs have played on the road revenging a loss against an opponent, with those games reaching an average total of 5.3 goals. For their part, the Blues have posted an 18-30 o/u record when playing at home following a game where seven or more total goals were scored over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 5.5 goals. While the last three games here have been high-scoring, the 'under' is actually 26-20 in the last 46 meetings between these two teams here in St. Louis. While Colorado's explosive offense is concerning, especially in a foul mood off a loss, it's worth noting that the Avs are still missing one of their top offensive threats in Mikko Rantanen as he deals with Covid protocols. Take the under (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +6.5 | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. Most have written off the Hawks with Trae Young out for an indefinite period with an ankle injury. However, Atlanta thrived in its first game without its superstar, delivering a 118-103 win over the Heat on Friday. Here, the Hawks catch the Bucks in a somewhat favorable spot with Milwaukee its second of back-to-back games after wrapping up a two-game sweep of the 76ers with a blowout win yesterday afternoon. While the Hawks lost Young, they did recently get Danilo Gallinari back from injury while Clint Capela could also return on Sunday, although I'm making this play assuming he can't go. The Bucks shot the lights out in the last two games against an undermanned 76ers squad but prior to that they had shot worse than 49% from the field in seven straight games. Note that they're just 18-32 ATS when on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of just 3.3 points in that spot. They hadn't been playing tough defense at all prior to yesterday's win and certainly caught a big break in that one with the Sixers missing both Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid in what amounted to a throwaway game for Philadelphia. The Hawks have been an underrated defensive team all season and check in having held 11 of their last 13 opponents to worse than 49% shooting. They're allowing just 110 points per game on 45.4% shooting at home this season. The Hawks will have revenge on their minds in this one having dropped both previous meetings against the Bucks this season, including a 120-109 setback in a poor all-around showing at home on April 15th. Note that the Hawks are 25-14 ATS at home revenging a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.8 points on average in that situation. Better still, they're 18-7 ATS when at home revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 3.7 points. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Cavs v. Wizards -9.5 | Top | 110-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Wizards are absolutely rolling right now, taking full advantage of a favorable schedule to reel off seven straight wins, going 6-0-1 ATS along the way. I expect them to keep it rolling against the lowly, undermanned Cavs on Sunday. Cleveland was already in for a bit of a letdown after shooting better than 51% in each of its last two games, but now will be without its top offensive threat in Collin Sexton due to a concussion. While I'm a fan of Darius Garland, the budding star isn't capable of shouldering the entire load with a poor supporting cast around him. Keep in mind, the Cavs were already without Taurean Prince, who had been giving them solid minutes and offensive production before going down to injury last week. The Wizards certainly haven't been playing down to the level of competition lately, delivering blowout wins against the Kings, Pistons and Thunder (twice) during their current winning streak. Note that the Wizards are an excellent positive momentum play having gone 8-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win this season. Meanwhile, the Cavs are a miserable 9-19 ATS as a road underdog this season, outscored by an average margin of 10.9 points. Washington is absolutely locked in defensively right now, having held its last five opponents to 43.4% or worse shooting - an incredible stretch of defensive dominance by today's NBA standards. This will be the first meeting between these two teams this season after the Cavs took a 113-108 decision against a much different Wizards squad here in Washington last February. Take Washington (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Night Baseball Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. This has been a low-scoring series save for last night's 'over' result, and I'm anticipating another well-pitched game in Sunday's series finale. Joe Musgrove will take the ball for the Padres. He of course grabbed headlines a couple of weeks ago by throwing the first no-hitter of the season. While he suffered a bit of a letdown in his next start against his former team, the Pirates, he has bounced right back since and checks in sporting some terrific numbers through four starts this season. Musgrove has done a terrific job of keeping the ball down in the zone and inducing ground balls, recording a 51.9% ground ball percentage and 17.3% fly ball percentage this season. While we're bound to see some regression to the mean at some point as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .124 batting average, I will point out that Musgrove does own better than MLB average career numbers in terms of home run, strikeout and walk percentage. Here, he faces a Dodgers club that has scored three runs or less in six of its last seven games, topping out at five over that stretch (in last night's game). Dustin May will counter for Los Angeles. Remember, he finished fifth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season but for now is overshadowed by Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler in the Dodgers stacked rotation. May is off to a fine start here in 2021. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down and he's held opponents to a collective .217 batting average. While he has posted a worse-than-average hard-hit-ball percentage of 42.1%, I'm not overly concerned as he's inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 50.8% ground ball percentage and 15.8% fly ball percentage. The Padres scratched together six runs in Friday's victory but have been held to four runs or less in five of their last six games overall. Take the under (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Devils v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. We were fortunate to get a 'push' with the 'over' in the Devils 4-2 loss in Pittsburgh yesterday. I'll come right back with the same play on Sunday as New Jersey draws a more favorable matchup to possible snap its nine-game losing streak, and certainly to pad its stats offensively. While the Devils have been losing game after game, they haven't had too much difficulty scoring goals, putting up 15 goals in their last five contests. They probably deserved more than two goals in yesterday's affair as they fired 36 shots on goal in the loss. Here, they draw a Flyers squad that has allowed at least four goals in four of its last seven games and gives up an average of 3.4 goals per game on home ice this season. Note that the Devils have averaged an impressive 4.3 goals per game when playing on the road off three or more straight road losses, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. New Jersey has all but throw in the towel defensively, allowing at least four goals in six straight and 10 of its last 12 games overall. Not helping matters has been the absence of defensemen P.K. Subban and Ty Smith. The Flyers are well-positioned to bust out here noting they average 3.4 goals per game after being held to one goal or less in their last game over the last two seasons. On the flip side, Philadelphia has given up a whopping 4.3 goals per game when playing its third game in four nights this season with that situation producing 6.8 total goals on average. We won with the 'over' when these two teams last squared off here in Philadelphia on March 23rd as the Devils stole a 4-3 victory. Expect a similarly high-scoring affair on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 235.5 | Top | 120-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Portland at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams on Friday night as the Grizzlies outlasted the Blazers by a 130-128 score - easily eclipsing the total. We're dealing with an even higher total this time around and I believe it will prove too high in Sunday's rematch. Note that the 'under' has gone 17-4 the last 21 times the Grizzlies have come off a game that totaled 245 points or more, with that situation producing just 219.4 total points on average. We've also seen the 'under' cash at a 28-10 clip after the Grizzlies allow 120 points or more over the last two seasons, with an average total of just 220 points in that spot. While the Grizzlies are certainly rolling along offensively, I'm not sure they want to tempt fate with another track meet here in Portland. A slower pace may serve them well here, noting that Portland is not an elite shooting team by any means, having shot 49.0% or worse from the field in 12 straight games entering Sunday's contest. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies shot a blistering 53.1% on Friday night, but will be playing their sixth game in the last 10 days, in five different cities, on Sunday afternoon. The Blazers have responded favorably following poor defensive efforts recently. After allowing an opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field, they've held their next opponent to 44.2%, 35.3%, 45.3% and 44.3% shooting going back to late March. Note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 after the Blazers score 120 points or more in a game this season, with that situation producing an average total of just 219.5 points. While the 'over' has now cashed in three straight meetings in this series, the 'under' is actually 2-1 in the last three matchups here in Portland. Take the under (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Bruins v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 109 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
NHL on NBC TV Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Pittsburgh at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. When these two teams last met on they combined to score 12 games in a wild 7-5 Bruins victory in Boston back on April 3rd. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the scene shifts to Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon. Boston got caught flat-footed in its last game, suffering a 6-4 loss against the lowly Sabres. Keep in mind, that loss came after the Bruins had easily handled the Sabres in their previous two games. The 'under' has gone 25-10 with the Bruins coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons with those contests totaling an average of 5.3 goals. The Bruins average 2.9 goals per game in that situation but could be hard-pressed to reach that here against a Pens squad that allows just 2.3 goals per game on home ice this season. Boston could be without top line center Patrice Bergeron for this game after he missed Friday's game in Buffalo due to a lower-body injury. Note that the Pens have given up just 2.1 goals per game with the 'under' cashing at an 11-3 clip when playing at home off a win by two goals or more over a division opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The 'under' has also gone a perfect 5-0 with the Penguins coming off three straight wins this season, with those games totaling an average of just 3.8 total goals. Pittsburgh's offense has been rolling lately but that's had a lot to do with the level of opposition it has faced as it is coming off five straight games against the Devils and Sabres - two of the league's worst teams. This is by no means an ideal spot as they play the second of back-to-back days against a Bruins team coming off a loss, noting that Pittsburgh has been held to two goals or less in three of six meetings in this series this season. Finally, keep in mind that the 'under' has cashed in three of the last five meetings here in Pittsburgh. Take the under (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Reds +112 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Cincinnati over St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Sunday. The Reds have now lost six games in a row following yesterday's 2-0 setback (we won with the 'under' in that game). I'll back them on Sunday, however, as they send Luis Castillo to the hill against Jack Flaherty. Castillo had a fine spring but hasn't gotten off to the start he had hoped for here in the regular season, posting an ERA north of six and a 1.66 WHIP. A closer look does give reason for encouragement, however, as he's recorded a 36.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 87.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both better than the MLB average. He's always been a ground ball pitcher and this year has been no different as he's posted a 47.4% ground ball percentage and 16.7% fly ball percentage. While his strikeouts are down, so are his walks. We can anticipate some positive regression to the mean going forward noting that opponents have hit a collective .317 against him this season but just .225 over the course of his career. While the Cardinals have had a few offensive explosions this season, they check in having scored five runs or less in seven of their last nine games overall. Jack Flaherty will counter for St. Louis. He had a shaky spring and is off to an uneven start to the regular season as well. He was helped out by his team's offense last time out, as the Cards put up 12 runs in a win over the Nationals. Flaherty has recorded a 42.4% hard-hit ball percentage an an exit velocity nearing 91 mph of opposing bats. His fly ball percentage of 30.5% is nearly 8% higher than the MLB average. The Reds have essentially managed to win around one out of every three games here in St. Louis over the last three seasons and I look for that to hold true here. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Royals v. Tigers +1.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 runs over Kansas City at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Royals have had their way with the Tigers in this series, adding to Detroit's misery in the midst of a 1-8 slide. I'll back the Tigers with an insurance run on Sunday, however, as they look to salvage the final game in this series. Danny Duffy will get the start for Kansas City. After a shaky three-year stretch from 2018-2020, he's pitched well in the early going this season, at least as far as his 0.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP would seem to indicate. The Royals are paying Duffy $15.5M this season so he obviously has a bit of pressure on his shoulders to live up to expectations in the fourth year of his contract. Those numbers I mentioned certainly aren't sustainable when you consider Duffy has recorded a 45.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats, not to mention a 39.6% line drive percentage and below average 29.2% ground ball percentage. Duffy hasn't posted lower than a 3.1% home run percentage (the MLB average is 2.9%) since 2017 but that number stands at 1.4% this season. I believe it's only a matter of time before we start seeing some balls leave the yard with Duffy on the mound. Michael Fulmer will counter for Detroit. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I'm fairly high on Fulmer, this season at least. It's easy to forget that he was the A.L. Rookie of the Year in 2016, finishing top-10 in A.L. Cy Young Award voting that year. He followed that up with an All-Star campaign in 2017. He's looking to make his way back to respectability now following a tough stretch and he's been effective so far in 2021. Fulmer has recorded a 36.4% hard-hit ball percentage and an 86.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while inducing ground balls at a solid rate, with a 52.3% ground ball percentage. Opposing hitters are batting a collective .186 against him. While he has allowed three home runs in just 16 innings, I expect that to even out as he's been better than MLB average in terms of home run percentage over the course of his career. Take Detroit +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Yankees v. Indians OVER 8 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. Hitters should welcome the opportunity to tee off on Jameson Taillon and Triston McKenzie this afternoon after getting manhandled by Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber in last night's 2-1 Yankees victory. Taillon has had a rather uneven career to this point and he's off to a rough start with the Yankees, having posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.28 WHIP through his first three starts. The advanced stats point to a struggling pitcher as Taillon has recorded a 47.4% hard-hit ball percentage and a 92.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His ground ball percentage of 35.9% stands nearly 8% worse than the MLB average. Not surprisingly, opposing hitters are batting a collective .283 against him and he's posted a 5.3% home run percentage - 2% higher than the MLB average. Triston McKenzie hasn't been much better for the Indians. He has recorded an ugly 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a blistering 92.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His 7.7% ground ball percentage is among the worst in baseball. Considering his 38.5% fly ball percentage, it's only a matter of time before his already worse than average 3.7% home run percentage inflates. This has been a relatively low-scoring series to this point but I think we're set up for a slugfest on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-24-21 | Coyotes v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Kings have somewhat inexplicably seen the 'over' cash in six of their last seven games overall but I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'under' as they host the struggling Coyotes on Saturday. Arizona has lost seven of its last eight games and checks in having scored three goals or less in six consecutive games. We do find the Coyotes in a favorable spot here as they've allowed just 1.7 goals per game the last six times they've come off consecutive home losses, as is the case here, with that situation producing just 4.7 total goals on average. There's little reason to expect an offensive breakout from Arizona, however, as it averages just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season. Despite its extended 'over' run, Los Angeles has actually been held to two goals or less in seven of its last 10 games overall. The Kings average just 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season and score only 2.3 goals per game at home after losing two of their last three contests over the last two seasons with the 'under' cashing at an 18-8 clip. That latter situation has produced an average total of just 5.0 goals. Finally, note that the 'under' has cashed in four of the last six meetings in this series in Los Angeles. Take the under (10*). |
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04-24-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
National League Run-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Marlins have had a tough time through the first two games here in San Francisco, only making things look close thanks to a two-out ninth inning error followed by a two-run home run to close the gap to 5-3. Here, I do like Miami in what figures to be a close affair. Pablo Lopez will take the ball for the Marlins. He was solid last season and has picked up right where he left off here in 2021. Through 21 2/3 innings of work, Lopez has recorded a 37.3% hard-hit ball percentage and an 84.6 mph exit velocity off opposing bats, noting that the MLB average in those departments is 39.2% and 88.7 mph. He's done a terrific job of staying out of danger throughout his career thanks to a 49.0% ground ball percentage and he checks in 47.5% in that category so far this season. His career fly ball percentage is nearly 5% lower than the MLB average. It's also encouraging to see Lopez's strikeout rate climb in each of his last three big league seasons. Kevin Gausman is pitching with a bit of pressure off a solid 2020 campaign as the Giants are paying him $18.9M this season. He's been solid in the early going this season but there is some reason for concern. Gausman's strikeouts are down and his walks are up while he's also recorded a 38.6% fly ball percentage. Opponents are hitting just .185 against him but we're bound to see some regression to the mean in that regard as he owns a career .263 opponents batting average. Rather than back the Marlins outright here, we'll grab the insurance run in what projects as another low-scoring affair in San Francisco. Take Miami +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-24-21 | Rangers v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the White Sox slugged their way to a 9-7 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday, however. Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Rangers. After struggling through the last two seasons, Gibson turned in a fine spring and that has carried over into the regular season as he's posted a 2.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through his first four starts. He's not getting it done with smoke and mirrors either. Gibson has kept opposing hitters off balance to the tune of a 29.0 hard-hit ball percentage and an 87.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He's also done a terrific job of keeping the ball on the ground, recording a 50.0% ground ball percentage and 16.1% fly ball percentage. While some regression to the mean will certainly come at some point, Gibson has yet to allow a home run this season. White Sox starter Dallas Keuchel hasn't gotten off to as impressive of a start as Gibson this season but a deeper look into his advanced stats provide reason for encouragement. Note that Keuchel quietly finished fifth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting and 17th in A.L. MVP voting last season. Through four regular season starts this year, spanning 19 innings, Keuchel has recorded a 37.7% hard-hit ball percentage and an 85.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. More impressive is his 56.5% ground ball percentage. His strikeouts are down and his walks and home runs allowed are up, but again, his other advanced stats would lend to the thinking that some positive regression should be in order. Note that Texas is hitting just .226 against left-handed starters this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-24-21 | Maple Leafs v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in the front half of this two-game set on Thursday night and I'll go back to the well with the same play on Saturday as we're once again set up for a high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has already cashed in five of eight meetings in this series this season. The Leafs check in averaging 3.8 goals per game after losing five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 6.3 goals. Meanwhile, the Jets are averaging 4.0 goals per game when coming off a home loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons with the 'over' cashing at a 16-5 clip. Those games have totaled an average of 7.0 goals. While the Leafs have been fairly stout defensively on the road this season, where they allow only 2.7 goals per game, they should get everything the Jets have in this one with Winnipeg coming off consecutive losses in which it scored a grand total of three goals, and considering the Jets will be playing just their third game in the last eight nights. Note that Toronto is giving up 4.0 goals per game after losing four of its last five contests over the last two seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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04-24-21 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. The Reds have now dropped five games in a row following last night's 5-4 setback in the opener of this series. The 'over' has cashed in all four meetings in this series this season but I look for a reversal of sorts on Saturday afternoon. Wade Miley gets the nod for the Reds. He's been terrific in the early going this season, recording a 28.6% hard-hit ball percentage and a 83.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats, both considerably better than the MLB average. He's also doing a terrific job of inducing ground balls, posting a 57.1% ground ball percentage, more than 13% higher than the MLB average. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down and opponents are hitting just .161 against him. John Gant will counter for the Cardinals. In his sixth big league season, all with the Cards, Gant has a lot to prove. He hasn't gotten off to a great start, largely due to command issues. I do think he can figure it out, and should benefit from facing a slumping Reds club that has scored five runs or less in five of its last six games. Note that for his career, Gant has held opposing hitters to a collective .232 batting average and has always done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, with a career 2.1% home run percentage, 1.2% lower than the MLB average. Note that the 'under' has gone 48-26 with the Reds check in as a road underdog over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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04-24-21 | 76ers v. Bucks UNDER 230 | 94-132 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Milwaukee at 3:40 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in this matchup on Thursday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Saturday's rematch in Milwaukee. There are obviously injury concerns for the 76ers after Joel Embiid was forced to leave Thursday's game and Ben Simmons missed it entirely due to an illness he's been battling over the last week. That game started as a track meet but did slow down in the second half with just 104 points scored. We saw some shooting anomalies in that one as Shake Milton was 8-of-14 for 20 points for the 76ers while Bobby Portis came off the bench to shoot 9-of-11 for 23 points for the Bucks. Philadelphia allowed Milwaukee to shoot north of 55% from the field in that game but I expect it to punch back here on Saturday, noting that it has seen the 'under' go a perfect 3-0 the last three times it has allowed opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. Note that the 76ers have held opponents to 45.8% shooting on the road this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 19-11 clip. The 'over' has cashed in the Bucks last three games, their longest such streak since mid-March. I look for a reversal of that trend here noting that the 76ers have allowed just 107.7 points per game after losing four or five of their last six games ATS over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 221.8 points. Also note that Philadelphia averages just 107.0 points per game when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 219.5 points. Look for today's total to prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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04-24-21 | Devils v. Penguins OVER 6 | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Pittsburgh at 12:35 pm et on Saturday. This will be the third straight game between these two teams here in Pittsburgh with the Penguins winning the last two by 7-6 and 5-1 scores. I'm anticipating another high-scoring affair on Saturday. The Devils are actually set up reasonably well here as they average 3.9 goals per game when playing on the road following a loss in which they allowed four goals or more over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 6.5 goals. We also find New Jersey averaging 3.5 goals per game when playing on the road after allowing three goals or more in three straight games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that spot averaging a total of 6.7 goals. The Penguins have been dominant on home ice this season, where they average 3.8 goals per game. They check in averaging 4.1 goals per game when playing on home ice following an 'under' result over the last two seasons, with an average total of 6.4 goals scored in that situation. Finally, note that the 'over' has gone 20-11 with the Devils seeking revenge for a loss in which they scored one goal or less over the last two seasons. New Jersey is simply playing out the string at this point but it is healthy again, up front at least, with Pavel Zacha and Jesper Bratt returning in the last week. Take the over (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Nuggets -2 v. Warriors | Top | 97-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
NBA on ESPN Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. Most were quick to write off the Nuggets after they lost Jamal Murray for the season to a torn ACL, interestingly enough in a game right here in San Francisco against the Warriors earlier this month. Instead of hanging their heads, the Nuggets have reeled off four straight victories with Nikola Jokic leading the way in his MVP-worthy campaign. While Denver has gone 0-8 ATS when on the road revenging a loss against an opponent this season, I think this one is a little different. The Nuggets certainly haven't forgotten that 116-107 loss here on April 12th and I'm confident they'll make amends for it with the Warriors in a tough spot, returning home following an eastern road trip that saw them start strong but finish poorly, blowing a fourth quarter lead in an eventual loss to the Wizards two nights ago. Here, Golden State will be playing its seventh game in the last 12 nights, in six different cities. It very much looked like a team that was running out of gas in Washington, shooting worse than 40% from the field against a below-average Wizards defense. The Nuggets will be playing their sixth game in the last 12 nights, but in just four different cities. They're set up well here, noting they've gone 21-9 ATS after losing at least two games in a row ATS over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 10.2 points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Warriors have gone a miserable 1-10 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 11.1 points in that spot. The Nuggets are locked in at both ends of the floor right now, having outrebounded each of their last five opponents while holding eight straight opponents to worse than 50% shooting, a strong defensive run by today's NBA standards. Denver checks in ranked fourth in the league in floor percentage over its last four games while Golden State sits bottom-six in that category over the same stretch. The Nuggets are also top-five in extra scoring chances per game over their last three contests while the Warriors rank 29th. You get the picture. Take Denver (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Marlins v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Friday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two clubs in the opener of this series last night and I expect more of the same on Friday. Sandy Alcantara will take the ball for Miami. He's been a steadying presence in the Marlins rotation, in his fourth season with the team. Keep in mind, he was an All-Star two years ago as he posted a 3.88 ERA and 1.32 WHIP but only managed to go 6-14 pitching for what was a bad Marlins team. Alcantara has improved on his strikeout numbers and walk totals in each of the last two seasons and is off to a fine start here in 2021. Note that Alcantara has held opposing hitters to a collective .233 batting average over the course of his career, markedly better than the MLB average of .250. While his hard-hit ball percentage is higher than we would like at 43.5% this season, he's still inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 46.8% ground ball percentage and 17.7% line drive percentage. Alcantara has always done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, recording a career 2.6% home run percentage. Alex Wood gets the nod for the Giants. He's pitching for his third team in the last two seasons, including two stints with the Dodgers. I see Wood as a pitcher that has been solid throughout his career, even reaching the All-Star Game and finishing ninth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting back in 2017, but has a lot to prove right now as he earns just $3M with the Giants this season - his lowest salary since back in 2017. Wood was certainly effective in his first start this season, tossing five shutout innings of three-hit ball while striking out four with no walks. He did a great job of tying up opposing hitters in that one, recording a 23.1% hard-hit ball percentage and 81.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He also posted a 61.5% ground ball percentage in that contest. Take the under (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Canadiens v. Flames -105 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
NHL North Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Calgary over Montreal at 9:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the Canadiens +1.5 in their outright victory in Edmonton two nights ago. They have a solid hold on the fourth and final playoff spot in the North Division but the Flames have an opportunity to close the gap with three straight home games against the Habs, beginning with this one on Friday night. Note that Montreal is just 6-13 coming off a win this season, allowing 3.1 goals per game and outscored by an average margin of 0.4 goals. The Habs are 2-8 the last 10 times they've come off a one-goal win over a division opponent, as is the case here, averaging just 2.2 goals per game and outscored by 0.7 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Flames check in 28-15 in their last 43 games after giving up four goals or more in their last contest, outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal per game in that situation. While Montreal will be playing its fifth game in the last eight nights, the Flames will be taking to the ice for just the third time over that same stretch. Having dropped their last two, including a 2-1 setback against these same Canadiens one week ago tonight, this is a virtual must-win for Calgary and it should be confident having taken four of the previous six meetings in this series this season. Take Calgary (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Canadiens v. Flames OVER 5.5 | 2-4 | Win | 102 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Friday. This is the classic 'playoff-like atmosphere' game where many will look to play the 'under' anticipating a tight-checking affair. Perhaps even moreso when you consider just how low-scoring this series has been with the 'under' cashing in five straight meetings in this series since the Habs skated to a 4-2 victory in their first matchup of the season back in late January. I believe this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair, however, as the Habs shook out of their offensive slump with a 4-3 win over the Oilers two nights ago and the Flames should play a high-energy game in desperation mode off consecutive losses in which they scored just three goals. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-10 with the Flames at home revenging a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. The Canadiens have allowed 3.1 goals per game off a win this season while the Flames average 3.3 goals per contest after giving up four goals in their last game over the last two seasons. Finally, note that the Flames have given up 3.3 goals per game when playing at home off three or more straight 'under' results over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 6.4 goals. Both teams are in their preferred situation from an offensive standpoint with the Habs averaging 3.1 goals per game on the road and the Flames putting up 3.1 goals per game at home. Take the over (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Pirates +1.5 v. Twins | 0-2 | Loss | -146 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Pirates are quietly stacking series wins after a slow start to the season and I like their chances of at least starting this series in Minnesota on a positive note on Friday night. J.T. Brubaker is an underrated starter for the Buccos. He didn't post great numbers on the surface in his rookie campaign a year ago but a deeper look showed encouraging signs and he's picked up where he left off here in 2021. After recording a 32.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats last season he's just north of those numbers in the early going here in 2021. While we're talking about a small sample size, Brubaker has done a terrific job of inducing ground balls so far this season, posting a 55.3% ground ball percentage and 21.1% fly ball percentage. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down and he's limited opposing hitters to a collective .196 batting average in 15 1/3 innings of work this season. J.A. Happ will counter for the Twins. He's clearly on the downside of his career with the Twins taking a bit of a flyer on him for $8M this season. Happ had a rough spring and he's yet to turn things around through two regular season starts, despite his 3.12 ERA and 1.27 WHIP seeming to indicate otherwise. Happ has recorded a 44.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His 44.0% fly ball percentage is certainly concerning, even if Happ has by no means been a ground ball pitcher over the course of his career. More concerning is the fact that his strikeout rate is down while his walk rate is up. I don't need to tell you that's a bad combination for a starting pitcher in the latter stages of his career. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
MLB National League Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. The D'Backs are coming off an offensive explosion against the Reds yesterday and I'm confident we'll see them do plenty of damage at the plate again on Friday night in Atlanta. The question is whether they'll be able to keep pace with the Braves, who are in good position for a bounce-back performance offensively against Luke Weaver of the D'Backs. Weaver had an awful spring and he's struggled in the early going in the regular season as well. In 16 2/3 innings of work, Weaver has recorded a 48.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 93.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both well north of the MLB average. He's never been much of a ground ball pitcher and that has held true so far this season as he's posted a 30.0% ground ball percentage (compared to the 43.5% MLB average). While Weaver's walks are down, his home runs allowed are up significantly as he's been tagged for an average of around one every four innings so far this season. The Braves got off to a slow start at the plate this season and were held down in a well-pitched series against the Yankees in New York earlier this week, but do check in having scored at least five runs in eight of their last 12 games overall. Huascar Ynoa will take the ball for Atlanta. Like Weaver, he had an awful spring and has been hit hard in the early stages of the regular season as well. Ynoa has recorded a 55.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 91.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. While his strikeouts are up considerably and his walks are way down compared to last year, we're dealing with such a small sample size that some regression to the mean is almost certainly in order. While not much was expected from the D'Backs this season, they've been on quite a tear offensively, scoring five runs or more in 10 of their last 12 games overall. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-2 in the Braves last 13 games as a home favorite priced -150 or higher with those games averaging 12.5 total runs. Take the over (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Mariners v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the Mariners +1.5 in last night's outright win in extra innings. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as I feel this total will simply prove too high. Keep in mind, while last night's series-opener managed to get 'over' the total that was only thanks to extra innings. Neither of these teams have been tearing the cover off the ball over the last few games and I look for more of the same on Friday. Yusei Kikuchi will take the ball for the Mariners. Throw out a poor rookie campaign in 2019 and Kikuchi actually owns better than average numbers in most key advanced stat categories we like to look at. That includes strikeout percentage and home run percentage over the last two seasons, with Kikuchi holding opposing hitters to a collective .237 batting average. While Kikuchi has predominantly been a ground ball pitcher that hasn't really held true in the early going this season, but we're talking about a small sample size. Veteran Martin Perez will counter for Boston. He's been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball in recent years but there is reason for encouragement in the early going this season. Perez has done a terrific job of keeping opposing hitters off balance, recording a 29.5% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats in 13 2/3 innings of work this season. Like Kikuchi, he has generally been a ground ball pitcher over the course of his career, but has yet to really settle in here in 2021. We have, however, seen him improve on his home run, strikeout and walk percentages compared to last season, albeit with a small sample size. Take the under (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Indians plated three runs in the first inning of last night's game before their bats went silent the rest of the way in a 6-3 loss. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Friday night as the Yankees send Jordan Montgomery to the hill against Logan Allen. Montgomery hasn't pitched a full season at the big league level since finishing sixth in A.L. Rookie of the Year voting in his rookie campaign back in 2017. However, he has put together a pretty solid resume when he has managed to get out there. For his career, Montgomery has been better than the MLB average in terms of opponents batting average, walk percentage, hard-hit ball percentage, opponents' exit velocity off the bat and line drive percentage - many of the key advanced stat categories we like to look at. So far this season he has recorded a terrific 30.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while also improving on his career strikeout and walk percentages. He should benefit from facing an Indians lineup that just hasn't been able to score with much consistency in the early going. Logan Allen will counter for Cleveland. Since being cast aside by the Padres in 2019, Allen has been serviceable for the Indians. Like Montgomery, he's off to a fine start in 2021, having recorded a 31.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.7 mph exit velocity while doing a tremendous job of inducing ground balls with a 57.1% ground ball percentage. Allen has generally done a good job of keeping the ball in the park and this year has been no different as he's given up just one home run in 12 innings of work. That's obviously a key against the slugging Yankees here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Flyers v. Rangers -154 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Flyers took the front half of this back-to-back set in New York by a 3-2 score last night, marking their fifth win in their last six tries here at MSG. The Rangers were in a clear hangover spot there after suffering a 6-1 beatdown against the rival Islanders two nights earlier. Here, I look for New York to respond favorably, noting that Philadelphia is 0-6 when coming off a one-goal road loss this season, outscored by a whopping average margin of 4.1 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 19-9 in their last 27 games following a home loss, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals per game in that spot over the last two seasons. Philadelphia has now scored three goals or less in 12 straight games and when you consider it has allowed 4.0 goals per game when coming off a win this season, this is by no means an ideal situation on Friday night. The Rangers have been held to three goals in their last two contests but should bounce back here, noting they average 3.5 goals per game when playing with double-revenge on home ice over the last two seasons. The last time the Rangers lost consecutive games against the Flyers - the situation they're in tonight - they responded with a 9-0 victory here in Manhattan. Take New York (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We played the 'under' in this same pitching matchup last week and we weren't close as that game sailed over the total with the Dodgers eventually winning in extra innings. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as the scene shifts to Los Angeles on Thursday night. The Padres aren't hitting right now. They had the bases loaded with no one out with a chance to possibly tie or take the lead in the ninth inning against the Brewers yesterday and couldn't even cash in a single run. Here, they'll face one of the best pitchers in baseball in Walker Buehler. Buehler is still working out the early season kinks but his command is there having posted a terrific 1.4% walk percentage through 18 innings of work - a considerable improvement, albeit with a small sample size, over his career average. Buehler is also inducing ground balls at a good clip, having recorded a 42.1% ground ball percentage. Note that the 'under' is 18-5 in Buehler's last 23 night starts here at Dodger Stadium with those games totaling an average of just 6.8 runs. Rookie Ryan Weathers will make his second big league start, with both coming against the Dodgers. He held his own through 3 2/3 shutout innings against them last week, allowing just one hit and striking out three while walking two. Note that the Dodgers are hitting just .195 against left-handed starting pitching in the early going this season. Through 9 2/3 big league innings, Weathers has been largely effective, limiting opponents to a .100 batting average while recording a 45.0% ground ball percentage. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Senators v. Canucks -131 | 3-0 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vancouver over Ottawa at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. While the odds are still slim, the Canucks do still have hopes of reaching the playoffs at this point, thanks in large part to returning from an extended Covid-related absence with consecutive wins over the Leafs earlier this week. Now Vancouver has an opportunity to continue to gain ground on the fourth-place Canadiens and fifth-place Flames as they stare down four straight matchups with the Senators, a team that while playing better lately, they have owned in recent years. The Canucks have actually taken five straight home meetings against the Sens and are a perfect 5-0 against them here this season, most recently skating to consecutive 3-2 victories in Ottawa back in mid-March. Note that the Sens have allowed a whopping 5.3 goals per game and have been outscored by 2.2 goals on average the last 18 times they've played on the road revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent. Also consider that Ottawa is a miserable 1-15 the last 16 times it has come off consecutive games in which it has allowed two goals or less, as is the case here. Finally, the Sens are 5-29 the last 34 times they've played on the road after scoring four goals or more in their last game, outscored by an average margin of 2.1 goals in that spot. While this is certainly a unique situation with the Canucks playing their third game back following such a long layoff, I believe they're being underpriced here. Note that Vancouver has gone 11-2 the last 13 times it has come off a home win by three goals or more, outscoring the opposition by 1.4 goals per game in that situation. Take Vancouver (9*). |
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04-22-21 | Angels +113 v. Astros | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the Angels yesterday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them on Thursday as they head to Houston to face the reeling Astros. Houston has lost three games in a row and nine of its last 10 overall entering this series with the Angels. Cristian Javier will take the ball on Thursday. Through 8 2/3 innings of work this season he has recorded a 47.6% hard-hit ball percentage and a 91.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. It doesn't appear he's going to be a ground ball pitcher at the big league level, having recorded a 29.3% ground ball percentage during his rookie campaign last year and 28.6% so far this season. Concerning is his 38.1% fly ball percentage through his first 8 2/3 innings pitched this season. Alex Cobb will counter for the Angels. They're paying him $15M this season so there's obviously some pressure to perform as he comes over from the Orioles. Cobb owns a 4.63 ERA and 1.20 WHIP through his first two starts this season but there are reasons for encouragement as he has recorded a 55.2% ground ball percentage and a 10.3% fly ball percentage. He catches the Astros returning without a day off after playing at altitude in Denver. Of course, Houston has had plenty of Covid-related issues and is just now getting its lineup back to full strength. I'll take a shot with the Angels to steal the opener of this series on Thursday. Take Los Angeles (9*). |
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04-22-21 | Mets v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 3-4 | Win | 102 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two clubs last night as the Cubs slugged their way to a 16-4 victory. Here, I look for a return to 'normal' as New York sends Joey Lucchesi to the mound against Trevor Williams. Neither starter's numbers will jump off the page but I'm anticipating a reasonably well-pitched game at Wrigley Field on Thursday. Lucchesi was cut loose by the Padres following 2+ very average seasons. We don't have a lot to go on here this season as Lucchesi has made just two appearances, spanning only five innings of work. With that being said, he has done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance, recording a 35.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Keep in mind, Lucchesi had a terrific spring, posting a 2.77 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 13 innings of work. Perhaps a change of scenery will be a positive for the right-hander. Trevor Williams is another starter changing places this season, moving to Chicago after five seasons with the Pirates. His early returns this year have been mixed but I am encouraged by his 54.5% ground ball percentage and miniscule 6.8% fly ball percentage. His walks are up, but so are his strikeouts (slightly). Like Lucchesi, he's also done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance, recording a 38.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Williams should benefit from facing a Mets club that has scored four runs or less in nine of their last 10 games. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Mariners +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
MLB American League Run-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Mariners head east following a 1-0 loss to the Dodgers two days ago to face a Red Sox club that's fresh off a two-game split against the division rival Blue Jays. I like the way this one sets up for Seattle as it sends Justin Dunn to the mound against Nick Pivetta. Dunn has been a bit of an enigma for the M's during the early stages of his big league career. Command has certainly been an issue as Dunn has recorded an ugly 18.5% walk percentage in 62 innings of work. However, there is reason for optimism as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .168 batting average. We've also seen him improve on his strikeout percentage this season, averaging 8.4 K's per nine innings. Note that the Mariners own a terrific 6-1 record with Dunn on the mound as a road underdog over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs per game in that situation. Nick Pivetta was cast away after a brutal start with the Phillies last season. He was fine in a couple of appearances with the Red Sox last season but now we're seeing the same issues creep up again in the early going here in 2021. Pivetta has recorded a 45.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 91.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats so far this season - both well north of the MLB average. He has also posted a 32.5% line drive percentage and 27.5% fly ball percentage to go along with a poor 30.0% ground ball percentage - again, all worse than the MLB average. His walks are up and his strikeouts are down so far this season. The only thing that has helped him save face has been the fact that he's kept the ball in the park for the most part, but it should only be a matter of time before that changes, noting that he owns a career 4.0% home run percentage compared to the MLB average of 3.3%. For his career, opponents are hitting a lofty .272 against him - 22 points higher than the MLB average. Noting that the Mariners have gone a perfect 11-0 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line over their last 11 games, we'll grab the insurance run again here with the price warranting such a play. Take Seattle +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-22-21 | 76ers v. Bucks OVER 225 | Top | 117-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The most recent meeting between these two teams was a defensive slugfest (by today's NBA standards) that totaled just 214 points and saw both teams shoot right around 40% from the field. I don't expect to see anywhere close to that level of defensive intensity on Thursday, however, as the 76ers head to Milwaukee to play the second of back-to-back nights after a closer-than-expected loss against the Suns. I say closer-than-expected because the Sixers were without the services of both Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons. Joel Embiid did everything he could to will his team to victory, pouring in 38 points and nearly tying the game on a last-second desperation full-court heave. Here, all bets are off as far as who will be in the lineup for Philadelphia. Harris and/or Simmons could be back but I wouldn't be all that surprised if Embiid sat. Regardless, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair. The Bucks are coming off a tough 128-127 overtime loss to the Suns three nights ago. They've now allowed their last two opponents to shoot 54.8% and 48.1% from the field and have seen the 'over' cash in six of their last nine games overall, including each of the last two. Note that the 'over' has gone 18-10 in Bucks home games this season. The 76ers have posted a 14-4 o/u record when coming off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons. In fact, they've recorded a 32-19 o/u mark off a loss of any kind over that stretch. Meanwhile, the Bucks have seen the 'over' cash at a 20-10 clip after a game in which they score 120 points or more this season, with those contests totaling an average of 236.3 points. We're working with a much lower posted total than we saw in the last meeting between these two teams. That has a lot to do with the injury situation for both teams, with Giannis Antetokounmpo also not a certainty to play on Thursday (he's currently listed as probable). Regardless who plays and who doesn't, I'm anticipating a high-scoring contest. Take the over (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Maple Leafs v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. This situation sets up well for a high-scoring affair as the Leafs and Jets are both in bounce-back mode on Thursday night. Toronto is coming off stunning back-to-back losses against the Canucks, who were coming off a long layoff due to a Covid outbreak within the team. We do find the Leafs in good position to rebound here, noting that they average 3.8 goals per game after losing five or six of their last seven contests over the last three seasons. They also average an identical 3.8 goals per game when revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, with that situation producing 7.3 total goals on average. The Jets are coming off a 3-0 shutout loss on home ice against Edmonton on Saturday. Perhaps that poor showing was to be expected as they were returning home following a successful five-game road trip on just one day of rest - a situation they had previously struggled in this season. Here, we note that the Jets average 4.0 goals per game following a home loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. Winnipeg has been a terrific bounce-back team this season, averaging 3.9 goals per game off a loss. Also note that the Jets average a whopping 4.7 goals per game the last seven times they've come off a shutout loss. While the 'under' has cashed in three of the last four meetings between these two teams in Winnipeg, the 'over' checks in 6-5 in the last 11 matchups in the series. Take the over (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Hurricanes v. Panthers OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Florida at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Hurricanes managed to earn a 1-1 split in a two-game set in Tampa and now make the short trip to face the Panthers in another key two-game series. I'm anticipating plenty of offense in Thursday's contest. Note that the Hurricanes have averaged 3.9 goals per game when playing at least their third consecutive road game over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 6.6 goals. Meanwhile, the Panthers average 3.6 goals per game when revenging a loss where they scored one goal or less this season and even more impressive, average a whopping 5.4 goals per game when at home revenging consecutive losses against an opponent by two goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that latter situation leading to an average total of 8.3 goals. We also find the Panthers as a strong positive momentum play here, having averaged 3.9 goals per game after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons. Finally, it's worth noting that four of the last five meetings between these two teams in Florida have gone 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Yankees v. Indians -103 | 6-3 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over New York at 6:10 pm et on Thursday. I'm higher on Indians starter Aaron Civale than most. He's certainly overshadowed in the Indians rotation, understandably so with an ace like Shane Bieber in the number one slot. Civale has quietly impressed throughout his big league career and is off to another fine start here in 2021. Through 20 2/3 innings of work he has recorded a stellar 37.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while posting a 47.1% ground ball percentage. Through the early stages of his MLB career, Civale has been considerably above average in terms of walk percentage and home run percentage while holding opposing hitters to a collective .242 batting average. The Yankees will counter with Domingo German in Thursday's series-opener. Unlike Civale, German is not off to a positive start this season. He's lasted only seven innings through two starts, allowing 12 hits and seven earned runs. He's had a tough time keeping the ball in the park throughout his career and early on this season that has held true. For his career, German has recorded a 4.7% home run percentage compared to the MLB average of 3.3%. Worse still, he's posted a 51.9% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season. Opposing hitters are seeing German extremely well right now and the Indians have shown signs of life at the dish over the last couple of games, scoring 11 runs. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Clippers UNDER 227.5 | 105-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies got off to a blazing start against the Nuggets two nights ago but when Denver decided to play a little defense, Memphis wilted in the fourth quarter, scoring just 21 points and allowing the Nuggets to force overtime in an eventual loss for the Grizz. Here's where Memphis' schedule gets really tough as it plays its fourth game in the last six nights, in four different cities and coming off a game played at altitude in Denver. I don't think we'll see all of those shots dropping for the Grizz the way they did two nights ago. Note that the 'under' has gone 27-10 in the Grizzlies last 37 games after allowing 120 points or more in their last game with those contests totaling an average of 219.9 points. Meanwhile, the Clippers are back home after a one-point victory over the Dame-less Blazers last night in Portland. Even with Kawhi Leonard sidelined, they're still an elite defensive team and they're absolutely locked in at that end of the floor right now, having held five straight opponents to 45.8% or worse shooting. Of course, the Clips could be catching the Grizzlies at the right time with both Jonas Valanciunas and Dillon Brooks questionable to play on Wednesday night. Even if they do play, I still expect this one to stay 'under' the total, just as five of the last nine meetings in this series have, including the most recent one - a 119-99 Clippers victory in Memphis back on February 26th. Take the under (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 227.5 | Top | 112-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets had their six-game 'over' streak snapped in their 113-91 loss in Miami two nights ago, and I look for an 'under' streak to present itself as they return home to host the Jazz on Wednesday night. Utah entered its last game off an uncharacteristically poor defensive effort against the Lakers on Saturday but that shouldn't have come as a surprise as it was essentially a throw-away game with a number of key cogs sitting out due to rest. The Jazz answered back with a stellar defensive performance in the back half of that two-game set against the Lakers, allowing just 97 points on 43.0% shooting in Monday's victory. Save for a few outliers, the Jazz have been incredibly locked in defensively and check in having held seven of their last 10 opponents to 45.1% or worse shooting - a real accomplishment in today's NBA. Meanwhile, the Rockets have quietly held three straight opponents under 49% shooting - an accomplishment in their own right given how this season has gone. Offensively, however, the Rockets are in tough right now, having shot 47.0% or worse from the field in five of their last seven games. They're not getting secondary scoring right now, which is no surprise with guys like Danuel House and Sterling Brown sidelined. John Wall and Christian Wood can only do so much. Note that the Jazz and Rockets both find themselves in the league's bottom-four in terms of floor percentage over their last three games. The Rockets rank last in the league in that category here at home this season. Utah surprisingly checks in 28th in the league in extra scoring chances per game while Houston isn't much better, sitting in 21st. It's also worth noting that Houston and Utah rank seventh and eighth, respectively, in block percentage. I do think the Rockets will be able to run their offense in this game, with Utah ranking 29th in the league in steals per game, but how many good looks they'll be afforded is another matter entirely. Note that the 'under' has gone 25-11 with the Rockets giving up 110 points or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 225.1 points. The Rockets average just 104.6 points per game when at home revenging a double-digit road loss this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 218.6 points. The lone previous meeting between these two teams totaled just 213 points back on March 12th and each of the last four meetings in Houston have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Suns -1 v. 76ers | Top | 116-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. I really wanted to back the 76ers in this game but the more I look into the matchup, the more I like the Suns. Of course, what was originally keeping me from getting behind Philadelphia was its injury/illness concerns with Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons questionable to play. While it is likely at least one of the two will be good to go for this one, I'm still not sure it will be enough, and question how much they would really contribute here. The Suns are in an obvious letdown spot off the overtime win over the Bucks in Milwaukee two nights ago, but letdowns have been few and far between for this team this season, particularly on the road where they check in 18-7, outscoring opponents by 4.0 points per game. The Suns are a terrific positive momentum play, having gone 17-5 ATS on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.9 points in that situation. They're also an incredible 21-5 ATS after winning two of their last three games this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.0 points per game in that spot. The 76ers are quite simply out of rhythm right now, barely getting by an undermanned Clippers squad last Friday night before falling to the Warriors in a 107-96 decision on Monday. They shot a miserable 42.2% and 39.3% in those two games, respectively. We've seen the Sixers fall in a number of step-up spots here at home in recent weeks. While they check in 22-6 SU at Wells Fargo Arena this season, half of those losses have come since March 17th. Phoenix has taken each of the last two meetings in this series, including a 120-111 win at home back on February 13th. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Predators v. Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Chicago at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring game between these two teams last time out as the Preds skated to a 5-2 victory on home ice two nights ago in Nashville. Now the scene shifts to Chicago for the second of three straight meetings between these Central Division foes, noting that the 'under' has cashed in four of the last six games between these two here at the United Center. It's been 'feast or famine' for the Preds offense lately as they've scored five goals or more on three occasions over the last two weeks, but outside of that have been held to three goals or less in 10 of their last 13 games overall. Note that the Preds average just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season. They've posted a 1-8 o/u record after scoring four goals or more in their last game this season, averaging just 1.7 goals per game with those contests averaging a total of just 4.1 goals. Also note that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Preds playing on the road off a win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling just 4.5 goals on average. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks are giving up just 2.1 goals per game when playing at home off a loss this season. We're not seeing many true offensive explosions from the Blackhawks this season, noting they haven't scored more than four goals in a game since back on February 28th. They've been held to two goals or less in seven of their last 12 games overall. Take the under (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Yankees | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta +1.5 runs over New York at 6:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Braves bats went silent once again in last night's 3-1 loss to the Yankees but I look for them to salvage a split, or at the very least take this one down to the wire on Wednesday evening in the Bronx. Ian Anderson will take the ball for the Braves. He had a tough spring and he's been average at best through three regular season starts but I look for him to step up in this key road tilt on Wednesday. Note that while Anderson has posted an ugly 4.70 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, there is some reason for encouragement. In keeping with his success a year ago, Anderson continues to induce ground balls at a terrific rate, having recorded a 46.3% ground ball percentage this season. His 12.2% fly ball percentage is even more impressive, yet he's been tagged for three home runs in just 15 1/3 innings of work. That should even out in due time, noting that Anderson recorded a stellar 0.7% home run percentage last season - on his way to finishing seventh in N.L. Rookie of the Year Award voting. Veteran Corey Kluber will counter for New York. He has labored through three starts with his new club, recording an ERA north of six to go along with a brutal 2.23 WHIP. Kluber will eventually figure it out I'm sure but it is alarming to see a 46.9% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Also note that his strikeout percentage, walk percentage and home run percentage are all trending in the wrong direction compared to his career averages - no surprise as Kluber is undoubtedly on the down side of his terrific career. Take Atlanta +1.5 runs (9*). |
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04-21-21 | Brewers v. Padres -195 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -195 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Chalk Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego over Milwaukee at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. We're paying a bit of a tariff to back the Padres here on Wednesday as they look to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Brewers but I believe the price could be even higher. Adrian Houser will take the ball for Milwaukee. He has a tough act to follow after Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes absolutely dominated the Padres lineup over the last two nights. Houser had a rough spring but has been serviceable through two starts during the regular season. He's relied on a very high ground ball rate through three starts but there is some reason for concern as he's recorded a 46.3% hard-hit ball percentage and opponents have hit a collecting .288 off of him (after they hit .285 against him last season). That's not to mention the fact his strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up. The Padres are expected to have both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado back in the lineup on Wednesday after they were rested on Tuesday. Dinelson Lamet will make his 2021 debut for the Padres after quietly finishing fourth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season. Lamet faces a Brewers lineup that is still without two of its best hitters in Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Lamet's numbers certainly won't pop off the page, but he did improve year-over-year in terms of strikeout percentage, home run percentage and walk percentage last season. For his career, Lamet has limited opposing hitters to a collective .202 batting average. This is a fine matchup for Lamet to ease his way into the 2021 campaign, noting the Brewers entered last night's action hitting just .206 against right-handed starters this season. Take San Diego (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Rangers v. Angels -164 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -164 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over Texas at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this one sets up for the Angels after they evened the series at one game apiece with a victory last night. We were set to back Angels starter Jose Quintana before last Saturday's game against the Twins got postponed due to Covid protocols involving Minnesota. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the veteran Quintana looks to shake off a rough start to the season. Keep in mind, Quintana has a lot to prove this year as he takes a $2.5M paycut with the Angels after being cut loose by the Cubs. He had a terrific spring but has posted a ridiculous 16.20 ERA and 3.40 WHIP through two regular season outings. While he has recorded a 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage, the exit velocity off opposing bats is a better than MLB average 85.0 mph. He has also posted an excellent 55.6% ground ball percentage (we are talking about a small sample size here). Mike Foltynewicz will counter for Texas. He's been riding the coattails of his All-Star season in 2018 when he finished eighth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting. The fact is, that's really been his only impressive campaign at the big league level. He's 0-3 through three starts this season, recording a 47.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.2 mph exit velocity while also posting poor 27.3% and 31.8% line drive and fly ball percentages, respectively, both north of the MLB average. Take out that one outlier season in 2018 and his numbers across the board are actually quite awful. Here, he faces an Angels lineup that entered last night's action hitting a collective .261 against right-handed starting pitching. Note that with last night's loss, Texas is now a miserable 15-45 in its last 60 road games against A.L. West opponents. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in this matchup last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday as the Brewers send the second of their two-headed top of the rotation monster to the hill in Corbin Burnes against Chris Paddack of the Padres. Burnes finished sixth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and after a lights out spring, he's been even better through his first three regular season starts, posting a miniscule 0.49 ERA and 0.22 WHIP. The advanced stats are arguably even better for Burnes as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .067 batting average to go along with a 48.4% strikeout percentage and 1.6% home run percentage. He has yet to issue a walk in 18 1/3 innings of work. Needless to say, Burnes has kept opposing hitters off balance, recording a 26.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 56.7% ground ball percentage. It's hard to say how much run support Burnes will receive here, however, as the Brewers are still without two of their best hitters in Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. They'll be facing Padres starter Chris Paddack who had a miserable spring but has seemingly turned it around quickly here in the regular season. While Paddack's strikeouts are down and his walks are up, he's yet to allow a home run and has recorded a 30.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably better than the MLB average. He's also inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 46.5% ground ball percentage and an 18.6% fly ball percentage. As I mentioned, the Brewers are undermanned offensively right now so Paddack won't have to be perfect on Tuesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Ducks v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Anaheim and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Kings will be back on the ice following an extended layoff, noting that the 'over' had cashed in their last six games prior to that. That's not a sustainable streak for a Los Angeles squad that averages just 2.7 goals per game and I expect the tide to finally turn against the Ducks on Tuesday. Note that Anaheim has actually held its own defensively on the road this season, allowing just 2.7 goals per contest. The Ducks enter tonight's game off consecutive home losses against the Golden Knights, allowing nine goals in the process. Note that the 'under' has gone 17-4 with the Ducks having lost two of their last three games this season, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.6 goals. Meanwhile, the Kings check in sporting an 18-37 o/u record when playing at least their third consecutive home game, with those games reaching an average total of just 4.9 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Kings have played at home on three days or more of rest, as is the case here, with those games totaling an average of just 4.4 goals. Finally we'll note that three of the last four meetings between these California rivals in Los Angeles have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Magic v. Hawks UNDER 219.5 | Top | 96-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. When these two teams last met on March 3rd, they combined to score 227 points in a three-point Hawks win in Orlando. The Magic are a completely different team now, however. Note that Orlando got a combined 77 points from the trio of Nik Vucevic, Michael Carter-Williams and Terrence Ross on that night. Vucevic is of course now playing in Chicago while Carter-Williams and Ross will both miss tonight's game due to injuries. Orlando does figure to show a bit of pride and play defense in this one after allowing the Raptors and Rockets to shoot 50% or better from the field in its last two games. The Magic have actually been slightly better defensively on the road this season compared to at home, allowing 111.7 points per game on 47.1% shooting. We won with the 'over' in the Hawks last game - a double-digit victory over the Pacers on Sunday. This game sets up much differently against a much slower-paced and undermanned Magic squad. The Hawks are fairly locked in defensively right now, holding five straight opponents to worse than 49% shooting. They've been an underrated defensive team all season, in fact, particularly here at home, where they've held opponents to 45.5% shooting. With a much tougher game looming against the Knicks in New York tomorrow night, this could certainly be a game where we see Atlanta manage minutes, especially with a a number of key cogs still missing due to injury, including Danilo Gallinari, one of its most underrated offensive threats. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The opener of this series between the Blue Jays and Red Sox features two underrated starting pitchers, albeit in different ways. Hyun-Jin Ryu will take the ball for Toronto. He's a bonafide ace but I'm not sure he gets the respect he deserves as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. The Blue Jays are paying him $20M per season for a reason and he's off to another fine start here in 2021. Remember, Ryu finished second in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and 19th in N.L. MVP voting two years ago and then finished third in A.L. Cy Young Award voting and 13th in A.L. MVP voting last season. While we're talking about a very small sample size, Ryu is trending toward a career-best in terms of exit velocity off opposing bats, line drive percentage and ground ball percentage. For his career, Ryu is better than the MLB averages in virtually all of the key advanced stats we like to look at it, considerably so when it comes to many. Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for Boston. Just two years ago, he finished sixth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. Rodriguez is off to a fine start here in 2021, recording a 30.0% strikeout percentage and 2.5% walk percentage, both considerably better than the MLB average. He has also posted a terrific 29.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.5 mpg exit velocity off opposing bats. The Red Sox exploded for 11 runs in yesterday's win over the White Sox but prior to that had been held to four runs or less in five of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have scored five runs or less in five straight games and a grand total of two runs in their last two contests. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Hurricanes +1.5 v. Lightning | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. There's not a lot separating these two teams right now, as evidenced by last night's 3-2 overtime win by the Lightning (we won with Tampa Bay in that game). Carolina has an excellent track record bouncing back from one-goal losses away from home, having gone a perfect 7-0 in its last seven opportunities away off a one-goal loss against a division foe, outscoring opponents by 2.0 goals per game and allowing just 1.6 goals per contest in that situation. I certainly feel the Hurricanes should be priced considerably higher catching an insurance goal here. Note that Tampa Bay has won just three of its last nine games when coming off a one-goal victory this season, allowing a whopping 3.8 goals per game in that spot. The Lightning are also just 6-14 in their last 20 games following an overtime victory, as is the case here, allowing 3.5 goals per game in that situation. Note that Canes head coach Rod Brind'Amour has done a terrific job of getting his team ready despite playing on short rest, having gone 25-11 the last 36 times they've played their third game in four nights and 25-12 in their last 37 contests on the second of back-to-back nights. The Canes have been right there with the Lightning this season and with a win tonight can even up the season series at four games apiece. I'll grab the insurance goal here as I do feel there's a high probability that we see another game go right down to the wire, just as we did last night. Take Carolina +1.5 goals (9*). |
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04-20-21 | Dodgers -181 v. Mariners | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is a terrific bounce-back spot for the Dodgers off a rare two-game losing streak. Note that they've gone 39-11 the last 50 times they've come off two losses in their last three games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs per game on average in that situation. They'll send Julio Urias to the hill for this one. He had a fantastic spring but is off to a fairly mediocre start to the regular season. On a positive note, Urias has limited opposing hitters to a 30.5% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.7 mph exit velocity. His strikeouts are down slightly but so are his walks. While he has given up three home runs in just 18 2/3 innings I'm not all that concerned by that as we should see some positive regression to the mean given he has posted a career 2.0% home run percentage (compared to the MLB average of 3.3%). Marco Gonzalez will counter for Seattle. He had a miserable spring and has picked up right where he left off here in the regular season, posting an ERA north of eight. Gonzalez has been hit hard to the tune of a 45.1% hard-hit ball percentage (the MLB average is 38.7%) and an exit velocity off opposing bats of 92.0 mph (MLB average is 88.5 mph). While I certainly expect him to turn things around at some point, this isn't an ideal matchup against a dangerous Dodgers lineup that is poised for a breakout following a couple of off days at the plate. Despite a poor batting average, Los Angeles has averaged 5.6 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 7 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Monday. We have an excellent pitching matchup to open this series on Monday night in San Diego with the Brewers handing the ball to their ace Brandon Woodruff against Joe Musgrove of the Padres. We've been singing Woodruff's praises in the early going this season, cashing with the 'under' in his outing against the Cubs in Chicago two starts back and with the Brewers in a blowout win over those same Cubs last week. Woodruff owns sparkling numbers across the board but that's really nothing new as he's done nothing but impress since breaking into the big leagues in 2017. Woodruff held opposing hitters to a collective .204 batting average in 73 2/3 innings of work last season and has limited opponents to an even better .169 batting average this season. While his hard-hit ball percentage has crept up a bit in the early going this season, he's still inducing ground balls at a greater rate than the MLB average while he's also been considerably better than the average in strikeout percentage, walk percentage and home run percentage (in fact, he's yet to allow a single home run this season). Note that the 'under' is 11-1 in Woodruff's last 12 starts under the lights with those games totaling an average of just 4.9 runs. Joe Musgrove will counter for San Diego. He of course is just two starts removed from a no-hitter against the Rangers. While he not surprisingly regressed in his next outing he still owns terrific overall numbers this season. Musgrove has held opposing hitters to a ridiculously low .109 batting average and .154 babip. While we can certainly anticipate some regression in those departments moving forward, he does draw another favorable matchup against a Brewers lineup that is missing key cogs including Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Musgrove recorded a stellar 33.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.1 mph exit velocity off opposing bats last season and he's picked up right where he left off here in 2021, recording a 35.9% hard-hit ball percentage. He's also posted a terrific 57.5% ground ball percentage - well north of the MLB average - building off his success in that department last season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Rangers v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -111 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. When we last saw the Angels they were busting out of a two-game slide, scoring 10 runs in a rout of the Twins on Friday night. Covid protocols derailed the rest of that series, however, but they return to the field to host the division-rival Rangers on Monday night. Texas has seen the 'under' cash in its last two games and will send Kohei Arihara to the mound on Monday. He had a fine spring and has held up well through three regular season starts as well, posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Arihara isn't going to miss many bats, with a 12.3% strikeout percentage so far but he also won't hand out a lot of free passes, recording a miniscule 1.8% walk percentage in his first 14 2/3 big league innings. Opponents have hit .255 against Arihara but he's allowed just a single home run to date. We're higher on Angels starter Dylan Bundy than most. He quietly got his career back on track with a solid 2020 campaign, his first with the Angels, that saw him finish ninth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. He's picked up right where he left off here in 2021, limiting opposing hitters to a .211 batting average while posting above-average numbers in both strikeout percentage and walk percentage. Bundy has also been better than the MLB average in both hard-hit ball percentage (32.0%), exit velocity off opposing bats (87.0 mph) and line drive percentage (18.0%). Now he faces a Rangers lineup that is hitting just .212 against right-handed starters this season. Note that the 'under' has gone 49-26 with an average total of just 8.2 runs when Texas plays with the total set at 9.0 or 9.5 over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 137-139 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Memphis at 9:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the Grizzlies in their outright underdog victory in Milwaukee on Saturday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade them here as they head to Denver in what I consider a throw-away game. Note that Memphis has now won three of its last four games SU and four in a row ATS but will be without Jonas Valanciunas due to a concussion on Monday and could also be missing Dillon Brooks, among others. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Grizz as they still have four games left on their current road trip, with a four-game in six-night stretch on deck. Meanwhile, the Nuggets lost Jamal Murray for the season with a torn ACL last week but proceeded to reel off consecutive wins in blowout fashion over the Heat and Rockets. While Memphis is playing its fourth game in the last six nights, in four different cities, this will be just the Nuggets third game in the last six nights, with two of those contests coming here at home. Denver checks in 18-10 at Ball Arena this season, outscoring opponents by six points per game. The Nuggets have taken consecutive meetings in this series in Denver, going 1-0-1 ATS along the way. Take Denver (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Senators v. Flames -205 | 4-2 | Loss | -205 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary over Ottawa at 9:05 pm et on Monday. I don't often back teams in this price range but I'm willing to make an exception on Monday as the situation sets up particularly well for the Flames at home against the Senators. Calgary is coming off a 1-1 split in a two-game set in Montreal but had to come away encouraged after taking two of three games on its road trip that also included a stop in Toronto. The Flames have now won three of their last four games to stay in the playoff hunt in the North Division. In an odd scheduling quirk (even for 2021), the Flames will host the Canadiens - the team they're trying to catch for the fourth and final playoff spot in the North Division - for four consecutive games after a quick trip to Vancouver to face the Canucks (following tonight's game). To keep pace, this game tonight is precisely the type of contest they need to win. I expect them to do just that. Ottawa did Calgary a favor by defeating Montreal 4-0 on Saturday afternoon. That sets the Sens up poorly here, noting that they've gone a miserable 0-12 the last 12 times they've come off a victory by two goals or more against a division opponent, outscored by 1.8 goals per game in that situation. Perhaps worse still, they're 4-29 the last 33 times they've played on the road after scoring four goals or more in their last game, outscored by 2.2 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, Calgary checks in 9-1 when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent in which it scored one goal or less in both games, as is the case here. The Flames have averaged an impressive 4.8 goals per game in that situation, outscoring opponents by 2.2 goals on average. Note that Calgary has taken three of the last four meetings with Ottawa here on home ice. Take Calgary (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Senators v. Flames OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Monday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the Senators and Flames on Monday night after we saw a couple of grind-it-out contests between them in Ottawa back in late March. Those two games totaled just 3 and 4 goals as the Senators swept the two-game set. It's interesting to note that the first of those two contests actually saw a closing total of 6.5 goals. We've already seen the two previous matchups between the Sens and Flames in Calgary produce 10 and 7 goals this season and I expect to see plenty of offense on display on Monday as well. Note that Calgary averages a whopping 4.8 goals per game when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent in which it was held to one goal or less, as is the case here as I noted above. That situation has produced an average total of 7.4 goals. Meanwhile, the Sens have allowed 4.7 goals per game when coming off a win by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with that spot producing 7.0 total goals on average. Of course, Ottawa checks in allowing a miserable 4.5 goals per game on the road this season, despite Saturday's shutout win in Montreal. The Flames are back home where they've been considerably better offensively this season, averaging 3.1 goals per game with their contests here totaling an average of 6.1 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Suns v. Bucks -141 | Top | 128-127 | Loss | -141 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Moneyline Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee (moneyline) over Phoenix at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We won by fading the Bucks on Saturday in their outright loss to the Grizzlies here at home. Milwaukee hasn't won a game here at home since March 24th but I look for it to put an end to that skid on Monday night against Phoenix. Despite its recent struggles, Milwaukee is still 18-9 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of seven points per game. The Suns check in having cooled off offensively, shooting 47.9% or worse in three of their last four games while allowing their last two opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. Coming off six straight games in which it has shot worse than 50% from the field, I look for some positive regression to the mean for Milwaukee here. The Bucks shouldn't be down on themselves as they have Giannis back healthy and have actually managed to win three of their last four games, scoring 124, 130 and 120 points in those three victories. They know they can hang with the Suns after suffering a narrow one-point loss in Phoenix back in February. The last time these two teams met in Milwaukee, the Bucks cruised to a 21-point victory last season. Take Milwaukee moneyline (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Red Wings v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Dallas at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Stars are coming off a rare offensive outburst last time out, recording a second straight win over the reeling Blue Jackets and scoring five goals in the process. While Dallas does average 3.3 goals per game here on home ice it's largely been a case of 'feast or famine'. Here, the Stars offense is set up rather poorly, having averaged just 2.2 goals per game when playing at home off two or more consecutive home wins over the last two seasons, with the 'under' going 9-2 in that situation, totaling an average of just 4.4 goals. The Red Wings average just 2.2 goals per game on the road this season and have seen the 'under' go 13-2 when seeking revenge for a loss by three goals or more this season, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of just 4.6 goals as well. Finally, it's worth noting that Dallas averages a miserable 1.8 goals per game when coming off two wins in its last three games this season with that spot resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. The 'under' has cashed in four of the last seven meetings in this series and I look for that trend to continue here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-19-21 | White Sox v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Boston at 11:10 am et on Monday. I can't help but think White Sox starter Lucas Giolito is thinking Cy Young or bust this season after finishing top-seven in award voting in each of the last two seasons. He's off to a tremendous start through three outings this season with his strikeout percentage up and his walk percentage and home run percentage down compared to a still-stellar 2020 campaign. Opponents hit just .184 against him last season and they're batting a paltry .143 against him this season. We've also seen Giolito record a 36.1% hard-hit ball percentage, well south of the MLB average. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-5 in Giolito's last 20 starts with the moneyline price set between +125 and -125 as is likely to be the case here, with those games totaling an average of just 6.7 runs. Nathan Eovaldi will counter for Boston. He's an underrated big league starter in my opinion and is certainly off to a solid start this season. Eovaldi has recorded a very impressive 31.9% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His 63.8% ground ball percentage ranks near the top of the majors. While his walks are up through three starts, that doesn't mean a whole lot when you consider he posted a stellar 3.5% walk percentage in 2020. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Islanders v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 6:35 pm et on Sunday. The Flyers are coming off a high-scoring game yesterday as they allowed five goals or more for the third time in their last four games in a 6-3 loss to the Capitals. Note that Philadelphia has allowed just 2.3 goals per game when coming off a loss by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons and faces an Islanders squad that has been held to three goals or less in seven straight games. Also note that the Flyers have allowed just 2.2 goals per game when playing at home revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. The Isles check in off consecutive losses to the Bruins and are set up in an interesting situation here as they've posted an 0-6 o/u mark the last six times they've played on the road off a shutout loss, with those contests averaging just 2.7 total goals. The 'under' is also 6-0 when New York comes off a loss by three goals in its last game this season, with those games producing an average total of just 3.7 goals. Going back further, the 'under' is 14-3 with the Isles playing on the road off a road loss by three goals or more over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 4.5 goals. This series started off high-scoring this season with three of the first four meetings totaling exactly seven goals. Since then, we've seen the 'under' go a perfect 3-0 with all three contests totaling five goals or less. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 9 | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a high-scoring affair in the opener of this series on Friday night before things settled down considerably in last night's 1-0 Astros victory (we won with the 'under' in that game). I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday afternoon as the Astros send Jake Odorizzi to the hill against Nick Margevicius. Odorizzi was of course a big offseason acquisition for the Astros as they're paying him $9M to be a big part of their rotation this season. He's off to a slow start but we can anticipate some positive regression to the mean moving forward given some of the gawdy advanced stats he has posted. Odorizzi has recorded a 61.5% hard-hit ball percentage, a 15.4% ground ball percentage and a 38.5% fly ball percentage, all far worse than the MLB average. Note that the Mariners entered last night's game hitting just .243 against right-handed starters and certainly didn't help their cause in that department against Zack Greinke. Nick Margevicius was serviceable for the Mariners last season, his first with the club after starting his career with the Padres. Like Odorizzi, he's off to a bit of a tough start here in 2021 but should benefit from facing a depleted Astros lineup missing the likes of Bregman, Altuve and Alvarez due to Covid protocols. It is encouraging to see that Margevicius' strikeouts are up while his walks are down compared to last year, even if we are talking about a small sample size. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Tigers v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The A's have had their way with the Tigers in this series and while that should continue on Sunday afternoon, I believe there's value backing the 'under' as Detroit starter Matt Boyd is deserving of respect in the midst of a strong start to the season. Boyd's offseason work was well-publicized entering the 2021 campaign and so far all of that work has paid dividends as he's been terrific through three starts, posting solid numbers across the board in the majority of the key advanced stat categories we look at. Perhaps most encouraging is the fact that Boyd's walks are down while he's recorded a stellar 33.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.8 mph opponents exit velocity, not to mention a 19.0% fly ball percentage. If you've followed my plays regularly this season you know that I've been higher than most on A's starter Chris Bassitt, who is admittedly off to a slow start to the season after finishing top-10 in A.L. Cy Young Award voting a year ago. We did see signs of Bassitt turning things around as we cashed with him against the D'Backs in his last start. His walks and home runs allowed are up while his strikeouts are down but he has held opponents to a .246 batting average and has posted respectable numbers in terms of hard-hit ball, ground ball and fly ball percentages. Against a light-hitting Tigers club that is without veteran Miguel Cabrera, look for further progression from Bassitt today. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Penguins v. Sabres +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo +1.5 goals over Pittsburgh at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. While Buffalo remains an NHL doormat this season it has certainly played better hockey lately, going 5-5 over its last 10 games despite suffering a narrow 3-2 loss against the Penguins yesterday. If you factor in the +1.5 puck-line, the Sabres check in 11-1 over their last 12 games. While the Pens have been playing well, and will be looking for their fifth straight road win today, this spot doesn't set up particularly well, noting that they average just 2.4 goals per game and have been outscored by 0.6 goals on average when playing on the road after winning four of their last five games over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Buffalo checks in averaging 3.7 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average when coming off a one-goal loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons. The Sabres have actually gone 5-1 when coming off a one-goal loss at home this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive 1.8 goals per game in that spot. Take Buffalo +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Rangers v. Devils UNDER 6 | 5-3 | Loss | -118 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and New Jersey at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. We've missed with the Devils on the puck-line in the last two games, just falling short yesterday with the Rangers tacking on a couple of last minute empty net goals. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as the scene shifts to Newark for Sunday's fourth consecutive game between these two teams. Note that the 'under' is 7-1 with the Devils playing with double-revenge this season, with those contests totaling just 4.6 goals on average. Better still, the 'under' is 6-0 with the Devils revenging consecutive losses against an opponent in which they allowed three goals or more, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of just 3.9 goals. Also note that the 'under' is 7-1 with the Rangers coming off three straight games scoring three goals or more with that spot totaling an average of only 4.8 goals. The 'under' is 15-7-1 when the Rangers play on the road this season, with their games totaling an average of 5.5 goals. Take the under (9*). |
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04-18-21 | Indians v. Reds UNDER 7.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams settled in extra innings yesterday. There's little reason to expect anything other than another pitcher's duel on Sunday as the Indians look to snap their skid with ace Shane Bieber on the mound while the Reds turn to veteran Wade Miley. Bieber is off to a fine start this season but there's still room for improvement after he won the A.L. Cy Young Award last year and finished fourth in A.L. MVP voting. I say there's room for improvement as Bieber has recorded a 9.5% walk percentage - well north of his career average of 5.3%. Elsewhere across the board, Bieber has been terrific as usual and with the Indians bats yet to wake up this season so he knows he needs to keep the Reds at bay in order to salvage a game in this series. Wade Miley, like Lance Lynn who we talked about earlier this week, seems to have discovered the fountain of youth. He's off to a tremendous start this season, holding opposing hitters to .108 hitting while recording a 25.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 83.3 mpg exit velocity. Miley has always been a ground ball pitcher and he's taken that to a new level in the early going this season, posting a 64.3% ground ball percentage and 7.1% fly ball percentage. While those are gawdy numbers, they're not all that out of the ordinary as Miley has done an excellent job of keeping opposing hitters off balance in the twilight of his career. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Indians -155 v. Reds | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Rivalry Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. Shane Bieber has pitched well through his first three starts this season but only has a 1-1 record to show for it. He'll be asked to once again serve as the stopper for the Indians on Sunday afternoon after they dropped the first two games in this series against in-state rival Cincinnati. I'll get behind Bieber here, noting that for as well as he's pitched in the early going this season, there's still room for improvement. He has recorded an uncharacteristic 9.5% walk percentage, well north of his career average in that category. I certainly look for him to settle down going forward and having posted a team record of 3-0 in three career starts against the Reds, with a 3.15 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, I'm confident he can shine in this matchup. Wade Miley has posted some gawdy advanced stats for the Reds, in a very limited early season sample size, and while I do expect him to hold his own again here today, I do expect the Indians bats to scratch out enough offense to support Bieber. We can certainly anticipate some mild regression from Miley today when you consider he has posted a 64.3% ground ball percentage and 7.1% fly ball percentage - and again, Cleveland shouldn't need a whole lot of offense as long as Bieber holds up his end of the bargain, as he should. Despite dropping the first two games in this series, the Indians have still managed to split the last six matchups between these two teams in Cincinnati. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Pacers v. Hawks OVER 234.5 | Top | 117-129 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Atlanta at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Bucks didn't give Trae Young any good looks in Thursday's 120-109 Hawks loss here at home and as a result he shot 3-of-17 from the field, ultimately keeping us from cashing our 'over' ticket by a bucket. Here, I look for Young to fare much better as we should be in for a track meet between the Pacers and Hawks. Indiana hoisted up 105 field goal attempts in an eight-point loss in Utah on Friday, shooting a miserable 39% from the field. I'm willing to chalk that poor shooting up to a tough scheduling spot with a rare early weekday game in altitude, no less. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Pacers bounce back, noting that they average 115.4 points per game on 47.2% shooting on the road this season. The 'over' has gone 14-4 the last 18 times the Hawks have played at home off a double-digit home loss, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 238.3 points. The Hawks have also posted a 12-3 o/u record when revenging a double-digit home loss against an opponent (Indiana defeated Atlanta 121-113 here in February) with that spot averaging a total of 237.4 points. With that Hawks shooting 47.6% or worse in three straight games, they'll be eager to get back on track offensively and should be afforded that opportunity against a Pacers squad playing their third straight game on the road and fourth game in the last six days, in four different cities. Take the over (10*). |
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04-17-21 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Seattle at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams in the opener of their series last night in Seattle. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as Zack Greinke squares off against Chris Flexen. Greinke has done an excellent job keeping opposing hitters off balance so far this season, recording a 32.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.3 mpg exit velocity. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks and home runs allowed are up but I certainly expect improvement from the veteran right-hander in those departments moving forward. It's not as if the Mariners have been tearing the cover off the baseball this season, hitting a collective .222 at Safeco Field this season. Chris Flexen has been good but certainly not great through two starts with the Mariners but it is encouraging that he has issued 'only' four walks in 10 innings of work as command, or lack thereof, was a big reason why the Mets were willing to cut him loose. He did a better job of avoiding walks during the spring and that seems to have carried over into the regular season. Of course, Flexen catches a break here with the Astros missing Bregman, Altuve and Alvarez due to Covid protocols. Take the under (10*). |
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