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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-15-23 | Pistons +16 v. 76ers | 92-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Can the Pistons avoid setting a team record for most consecutive losses in a season by upsetting the 76ers on the road tonight? Probably not. But Detroit can stay within this large point spread given the circumstances. |
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12-14-23 | Wolves +2 v. Mavs | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Kudos to the Mavericks for nipping the Lakers, 127-125, at home on Tuesday. That was Dallas' fourth consecutive victory. But before getting on the Mavericks' bandwagon take a look at who their other three victories came against during this win streak - Utah, Portland and Memphis. Those three teams are a combined 20-49.
Minnesota is tied with Boston for the best record in the NBA at 17-5. The Timberwolves just had their six-game win streak snapped by the Pelicans, 121-107, at New Orleans three days ago. The Timberwolves are the better team and I want them off a loss with extra preparation time. It's a bonus if the Timberwolves get back Anthony Edwards, who is questionable with a hip pointer. Minnesota does have back Jaden McDaniels, an underrated rotation player. The Mavericks remain without Kyrie Irving. |
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12-14-23 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 21-63 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
When it's dreck vs dreck like it is in this matchup, take the points. The Chargers beat the Raiders, 24-17, in Week 4. That was Aidan O'Connell's quarterback debut in the NFL. Khalil Mack welcomed O'Connell into the league by sacking him six times. O'Connell had three turnovers in that game. Nothing has changed. O'Connell still holds the ball too long and is mistake-prone. Only once in their last seven games have the Raiders scored more than 17 points. Las Vegas is averaging 11.5 points in its past four games. Jimmy Garoppolo is just an older version of O'Connell, a statue who also has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes.  The Chargers are vulnerable on pass defense. However, they rank No. 2 in the NFL in sacks with 43. The questionable status of Josh Jacobs is getting a lot of attention. But the Raiders definitely will be without two starting offensive linemen, left tackle Kolton Miller and center Andre James. Las Vegas' quarterbacks are immobile. Missing two starters from the offensive line, including perhaps their best one in Miller, does not bode well. Chargers quarterback Easton Stick shouldn't be worse than O'Connell or Garoppolo. This is his fifth season as the Chargers' backup. He's learned from Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert and is well ingrained into the Chargers' system. Stick was a huge star for FCS power North Dakota State from 2015-18. No Keenan Allen, but the Chargers at least get Josh Palmer back. Stick should be able to move the ball throwing short against the Raiders' soft zone coverages they heavily use. Austin Ekeler has lost his juice as a runner, but he still is one of the best at catching the ball out of the backfield. Maybe now that the pressure is off, the Chargers will loosen up and play better. The disadvantage of being the road team on Thursday is lessened here because the Chargers only had a short distance to travel and are well-acquainted with their AFC West Division rival. |
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12-13-23 | Nets v. Suns -125 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
I hold tremendous respect for the Nets. They have the best point spread record in the NBA at 16-5-1. So I don't like to fade them. But it's not asking too much of the Suns to simply win this game even if Kevin Durant isn't ready to play after missing the last two games because of an ankle sprain. That's why I have them on the money line instead of laying a short number. |
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12-13-23 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -5.5 | 104-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Since losing and failing to cover in their first three games, the Rockets have gone 14-2-1 (88 percent) ATS. Yet the marketplace still hasn't fully comprehended how improved the Rockets are defensively. |
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12-13-23 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 258.5 | 126-140 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Behold this game has reached the highest total of the season. It's justified because these are the two highest-scoring teams in the NBA. |
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12-13-23 | Florida International +23.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 60-94 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
Florida Atlantic is going through a high profile stretch of games. The 15th-ranked Owls just competed in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden last week. They meet St. Bonaventure Saturday in the Basketball Hall of Fame Classic in Springfield, Mass. and will take on top-ranked Arizona in the Las Vegas Desert Classic on Dec. 23. |
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12-12-23 | Cavs +11 v. Celtics | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Here is another example of Boston being overpriced. The Cavaliers are being disrespected because they lost to the Magic last night. No shame in that. Orlando is greatly improved. The Cavaliers happen to be 6-1 following a loss. |
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12-12-23 | Lakers v. Mavs +2 | Top | 125-127 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
The Mavericks beat the Lakers, 104-101, in Los Angeles on Nov. 22. The circumstances are ripe for the Mavericks to do it again.
This is the Lakers' first game since capturing the NBA's first in-season tournament. They accomplished that by defeating the Pacers this past Saturday night in Las Vegas. The Lakers haven't done nearly as well in non-tournament games and this is a letdown spot for them. LA is 5-7 in non-tournament games. Dallas won and covered its third straight game beating the Grizzlies, 120-113, on the road last night. The Mavericks were idle the previous two days, however. So there should not be a fatigue factor. |
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12-12-23 | Lakers v. Mavs UNDER 233 | 125-127 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
The Mavericks won't have Kyrie Irving and will want to slow pace having played last night. Dallas could be minus Tim Hardaway, too. He missed the Grizzlies' game due to back spasms. The Lakers are in a letdown spot after winning the NBA's in-season tournament. |
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12-11-23 | Utah Tech v. CS-Northridge -130 | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
It's a short college basketball board today, but I'm getting involved in a game involving small conference West Coast teams. I like Cal State Northridge to win at home against Utah Tech. |
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12-11-23 | Titans v. Dolphins OVER 46 | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
Miami has the most explosive and intriguing offense in the NFL. The Dolphins lead the league in yards and are second in points at 32 per game. They also have had the most plays of plus 25 and plus 50 yard gains. |
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12-11-23 | Pacers v. Pistons +7 | 131-123 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 51 m | Show | |
Talk about your dead spots. This sure is one for the Pacers. |
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12-11-23 | Heat -3.5 v. Hornets | 116-114 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 38 m | Show | |
These two teams met in Charlotte on Nov. 14. The Heat were 6 1/2-point road favorites and won, 111-105. |
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12-10-23 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | 13-33 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 15 m | Show | |
Dallas is 9-3. The Cowboys have crushed a lot of bad teams. They've faced only two above .500 opponents, though, and lost those two games, falling to the Eagles and 49ers. |
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12-10-23 | Bills v. Chiefs OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 6 m | Show |
There are multiple bad weather games this week. This isn't one of them. The forecast is for a sunny day with temperatures in the 40's and little wind. |
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12-10-23 | Jaguars v. Browns -3 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 64 h 20 m | Show |
This game sets up very badly for the Jaguars. Not only is warm-weather Jacksonville traveling into cold and bad weather conditions on a short week, but doing it without their first and second string offensive left tackles and most consistent wide receiver, Christian Kirk.  The Jaguars are facing a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards per game in the NFL and has outscored opponents, 113-61, at home in going 5-1.  If you discount a 28-3 loss to the Ravens, the Browns are giving up an average of 6.6 points in their five other home contests.  Joe Flacco is a huge upgrade on P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
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12-10-23 | Texans v. Jets +3.5 | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 64 h 58 m | Show | |
Houston has been a major surprise this season. So has C.J. Stroud, who looks like a lock to win Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.Â
But this is a clear buy low/sell high situation to take the Jets and go against the Texans. The warm-weather, roof-enclosed Texans are heading into cold and bad weather to face a disappointed Jets team that seems ready to take their season-long frustrations and jealousy out on a beatable opponent such as this. I actually believe Zach Wilson will provide a spark to a Jets offense that encountered one of the worst two-game quarterback stretches of the season with Tim Boyle. I expect a fresh Wilson to be improved after his two-game benching. He has the best running back, Breece Hall, and top wide receiver, Garrett Wilson, on his side in this matchup. The Texans rank 26th in pass defense. Stroud will be without explosive Tank Dell, the Texans' touchdown leader and second-leading receiver. The Jets have the third-best pass defense in the NFL. They haven't allowed a 300-yard passer during their last 30 games. |
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12-10-23 | Boston University v. Wagner -3.5 | 73-59 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
Boston University has played six road games. The Terriers are 1-5 SU and ATS in those contests with their average away loss being by 16.8 points. |
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12-09-23 | Army -145 v. Navy | Top | 17-11 | Win | 100 | 77 h 35 m | Show |
No, I wasn't around for the Army-Navy game when Mr. Inside Glenn Davis and Mr. Outside Doc Blanchard were the stars. But I did see the 1963 game when Navy's Roger Staubach played. I still remember it, too. |
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12-09-23 | Illinois v. Tennessee -6.5 | 79-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
I don't see Tennessee losing at home to Illinois. The Volunteers are extremely battle tested having already played a number of strong teams, including Kansas, North Carolina, Syracuse and Big Ten opponents Wisconsin and Purdue. |
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12-09-23 | Tulane v. Mississippi State UNDER 152 | 76-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
An early start matchup at a neutral site doesn't bode well for as high as scoring game as the oddsmaker projects here. Tulane has shot better than 50 percent from the field in six of its seven games this season. However, the Green Wave have faced an easy schedule. Mississippi State is the toughest defense they have encountered so far. |
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12-08-23 | Warriors v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 136-138 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Oklahoma City ranked among the top three point spread teams last season. The Thunder are in the top-three again this season covering 14 of their 20 games for 70 percent. This includes a 3-0 ATS record against Golden State this season. |
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12-07-23 | Stars -135 v. Capitals | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
When you have to count on Tom Wilson to do most of your goal-scoring your offense is in trouble. That's what's going on with the Capitals, who rank second-to-last in goals scored at 2.2 per game. Wilson, more goon/enforcer than scorer, has produced four of Washington's last six goals. |
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12-07-23 | Eastern Kentucky +9.5 v. NC-Greensboro | 85-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
Eastern Kentucky beat UNC Greensboro, 68-64, at home last season. The Colonels are off to a slow start this season at 3-3 while Greensboro is 6-1. But I'm going to buy low on Eastern Kentucky in the belief this line is inflated too much. Eastern Kentucky isn't nearly double-digits worse than the Spartans, whose defense can be dented.Â
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12-07-23 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 255 | Top | 128-119 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
This is the highest total of the NBA season. I'm not buying it. I get that the Pacers are the No. 1 scoring team in the league at 128.4 points and have gone above 120 points in each of their five tournament games. The Bucks are the third-highest scoring team in the NBA at 122.3 points and have gone Over in their past four games. |
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12-06-23 | Golden Knights -158 v. Blues | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
I want the defending Stanley Cup champion Golden Knights in this short revenge spot. St. Louis nipped the Golden Knights, 2-1, in overtime at Las Vegas on Monday. Las Vegas had a number of good looks, but were thwarted by Jordan Binnington's excellent goaltending.
I know the Golden Knights will play strong defense here. They've allowed three goals in regulation during the last three games and haven't given up more than two goals a game in six of their past seven games. I can't say the same for the Blues and Binnington. Both are extremely inconsistent. St. Louis had allowed an average of 4.3 goals in its previous six games before Monday's narrow victory. |
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12-06-23 | Nets +4 v. Hawks | Top | 114-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
The Hawks are an excellent fade when laying points. Atlanta is 2-9 ATS (18 percent) this season as chalk. |
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12-05-23 | Cleveland State v. St. Mary's -14.5 | Top | 57-70 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
Saint Mary's was a ranked team opening the season. But a 3-5 start has removed the Gaels from Top-25 status. The Gaels are in position to take their frustrations out hosting Cleveland State. |
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12-05-23 | Suns +2 v. Lakers | Top | 103-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The records are almost identical. The Suns are 12-9. The Lakers are 12-8. |
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12-05-23 | Villanova -140 v. Kansas State | 71-72 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
I believe in the due factor. It's going to show up here. Villanova has lost its last two games as double-digit favorites against fellow Philadelphia teams, St. Joe's and Drexel. The Wildcats had won and covered their previous four games. |
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12-04-23 | Blues v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
The buy sign is back on the Golden Knights. Las Vegas is back on track posting consecutive 4-1 victories against the Canucks this past Thursday and Capitals two days ago. |
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12-04-23 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Kings | Top | 127-117 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
This game has more meaning than the usual early December regular-season matchup. It's a Western Conference quarterfinal game of the NBA in-season tournament with the winner advancing to the semifinals of the tournament Thursday in Las Vegas. |
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12-04-23 | Iowa v. Purdue UNDER 164.5 | Top | 68-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
I find this total to be too high, an overreaction to each team's last game. |
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12-03-23 | Chiefs v. Packers UNDER 42.5 | 19-27 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 53 m | Show | |
Jordan Love has had two strong games in a row. That was against the Chargers and Lions. Now he steps up facing a much better defense. Kansas City surrenders the third-fewest points per game at 16.5. The Chiefs haven't allowed more than 21 points in a game all season. |
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12-03-23 | 49ers -3 v. Eagles | Top | 42-19 | Win | 100 | 63 h 12 m | Show |
The spot sets up well for the 49ers to get a measure of revenge from their, 31-7, loss to the Eagles in the NFC title game last season when Brock Purdy was knocked out of the game. |
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12-03-23 | Browns +4 v. Rams | 19-36 | Loss | -120 | 63 h 38 m | Show | |
The Rams were able to bully a bad Cardinals defense last week. They won't be able to do that against an elite, well-coached Browns defense. |
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12-03-23 | Browns v. Rams UNDER 40.5 | 19-36 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 37 m | Show | |
The Rams are going from playing a bottom-two defense in Arizona to meeting a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards and passing yards. Night and day. Before lighting up the Cardinals' dreadful defense last week, the Rams had averaged 14.2 points in their previous four games. The Rams' passing game isn't as good as it looks on paper with Cooper Kupp being close to a non-factor with only six receptions in his last three games for 77 yards. The Browns can win this game with their tough defense and ground-control running attack. The only thing that can beat the Browns is turnovers. So look for Cleveland to be ultra-conservative on offense knowing that immobile Joe Flacco will be under center. The Rams have held their last three opponents - Cardinals, Seahawks and Packers - to a combined average of 16.6 points. |
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12-03-23 | Creighton -3.5 v. Nebraska | 89-60 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
I am more impressed with Creighton's 6-1 start than Nebraska's 7-0 beginning. So is the oddsmaker. He's installed the Bluejays as a road favorite. It's the correct call. Creighton is the superior team. |
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12-03-23 | Cardinals v. Steelers OVER 41 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -105 | 40 h 44 m | Show |
Finally free of obtuse offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers produced a season-high 421 yards against the Bengals last week. Kenny Pickett wasn't just restricted to throwing sideline passes like before. Tight end Pat Freiermuth caught nine passes for 120 yards using the middle of the field. Pittsburgh has a strong 1-2 running punch of Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris to go with one of the better wide receiver tandems, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens. |
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12-02-23 | Loyola Marymount v. Nevada -8.5 | 59-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
Unbeaten 5-0 Nevada failed to cover its last game after giving up 48 second-half points to Montana in a 77-66 home win this past Wednesday. Wolf Pack coach Steve Alford wasn't happy about that. So I see the Wolf Pack being very focused for this matchup. |
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12-02-23 | Louisville v. Florida State UNDER 47.5 | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 76 h 39 m | Show | |
The skill position players on these two teams get the publicity, but the defenses are very good. |
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12-02-23 | Michigan v. Iowa +22.5 | Top | 26-0 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 37 m | Show |
This is the Big Ten Conference title game. But nothing was bigger for Michigan than beating Ohio State last week. So this matchup is actually a letdown for the Wolverines. |
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12-02-23 | Boise State -130 v. UNLV | 44-20 | Win | 100 | 69 h 6 m | Show | |
UNLV had been playing well above its head all season - until this past week when it lost at home as a short favorite to San Jose State. The Rebels made huge strides in Barry Odom's first season as their head coach. |
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12-01-23 | Oregon v. Washington UNDER 66 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
There were 69 points scored when the teams met earlier in the season with Washington winning, 36-33, at home. I don't see nearly that many points being scored in this rematch. Not only do the teams know each other much better now, but Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. isn't playing nearly as well. Penix had a 20-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the first six games this season. However, in his last six games Penix has a 12-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. |
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12-01-23 | Wizards +11 v. Magic | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Sometimes to beat the NBA you have to go ugly. That's the case here in backing Washington. |
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12-01-23 | Rider v. Siena +3.5 | 65-67 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show | |
The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tips off today with Rider visiting Siena. Rider was the preseason pick to win the MAAC this season. |
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11-30-23 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -9 | Top | 35-41 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
It's difficult enough being the visiting team when playing on Thursday night. But it's even worse for the Seahawks because Geno Smith isn't 100 percent and the opponent is Dallas. |
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11-30-23 | UL - Lafayette +4 v. Samford | 65-88 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Both Louisiana Lafayette and Samford are 5-2. I have Louisiana Lafayette as the superior team so I'm on the Ragin' Cajuns as an underdog. |
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11-30-23 | Pistons +14 v. Knicks | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
I get that the Pistons are total dog crap, losers of an amazing 15 straight games. About the only good thing I can say about them is they have some promising young players and usually play with energy. |
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11-29-23 | Davidson +3 v. Charlotte | Top | 85-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
I'm buying low here on Davidson after the Wildcats were slaughtered by Saint Mary's, 89-55, five days ago. Before that game, Davidson had not lost by more than three points all season. |
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11-29-23 | Suns -3 v. Raptors | 105-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Even if Kevin Durant misses this game, and he's questionable with a foot injury, I still like Phoenix to cover this short number. |
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11-28-23 | Warriors v. Kings -119 | Top | 123-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The Kings are home, playing much better than the Warriors and have double revenge. So it's not too much to ask them to simply win this game. |
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11-27-23 | North Dakota State +7.5 v. San Jose State | Top | 65-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
North Dakota State is a strong 3-point shooting team ranking 64th. The Bisons are in a good situational spot here.Â
They draw San Jose State in the Spartans' first game since returning from the Virgin Islands. San Jose State went 2-1 in the Paradise Jam Tournament there. The Spartans were favored in all three of their games there against weak competition. That has made their record and statistics look better than they really are. I don't think the Spartans are very good. They only scored 42 points in a 14-point loss to Texas Tech a couple of weeks ago before they went on their Virgin Islands trip. I think these teams are closer than this point spread indicates. |
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11-27-23 | Wizards v. Pistons OVER 234.5 | 126-107 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
What do you do when idiots meet? Take the Over. That's what I'm doing in this matchup between the two worst teams in the NBA, Wizards and Pistons. |
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11-27-23 | Panthers v. Senators OVER 6.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm looking for the Panthers to break out of their two-game offensive funk against Ottawa, which has a below-average defense. The Senators have permitted 3 or more goals in nine of their last 12 games. |
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11-26-23 | Ravens v. Chargers +141 | 20-10 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
The Chargers are extremely frustrating to get behind with their knack for blowing leads and bad coaching. In terms of talent, though, the Chargers are right there. Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler are top-five at their respective positions.  This will be the Ravens' first game without tight end Mark Andrews, who is Lamar Jackson's security blanket. The Ravens' wide receivers are all nursing injuries. They are likely to play, but could be hampered. The Chargers are tough to run on. So Jackson is likely going to have to deliver a strong passing game. I'm not sold that he can do that. This would be a good spot to buy one-half point taking plus 3 1/2. When getting 3 or more points, the Chargers have covered 15 of the last 16 times.Â
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11-26-23 | Bellarmine +9 v. West Virginia | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
It's too many points for West Virginia to lay. The Mountaineers have a short bench and haven't broken the 70-point barrier yet this season. They are still learning their rotation and breaking in players. |
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11-26-23 | Bills v. Eagles OVER 48.5 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
There's a chance of rain, but no need to be scared off by the weather because wind isn't a factor. |
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11-26-23 | Browns v. Broncos -114 | 12-29 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
Everybody is talking about how good the Browns' defense is even saying it's Super Bowl caliber. However, Cleveland's defense is far less intimidating on the road. The Browns have surrendered an average of 29.7 points a game in four away games this season. |
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11-26-23 | Bucs v. Colts OVER 45.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
The numbers are 64.6 percent completions for 2,389 yards and 15 TD passes. Those numbers belong to Baker Mayfield. Surprised? Mayfield is having a below-the-radar good season. The Buccaneers have no ground attack, but they can effectively air it out. |
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11-25-23 | West Virginia -10.5 v. Baylor | 34-31 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 57 m | Show | |
West Virginia was picked to finish last in the Big 12 in the preseason poll. Instead it has been Baylor who has been terrible while the Mountaineers have gone 7-4, including 5-3 in the Big 12. |
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11-25-23 | Heat +4.5 v. Nets | 97-112 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
I like getting points with the better defensive team that has motivation and is in good current form. |
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11-25-23 | Jacksonville State -2.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
Fading New Mexico State in an obvious letdown spot is the major part of my handicap. The Aggies not only have punched their ticket to face Liberty in the Conference USA championship game, but could also have trouble getting up for this game after what happened last week. |
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11-25-23 | Maryland v. Rutgers UNDER 45.5 | 42-24 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 57 m | Show | |
Maryland has a Tagovailoa as its quarterback. Unfortunately for the Terrapins that quarterback is Taulia Tagovailoa and not his brother, Tua. The Terrapins' offense has tailed off badly in their last six games dealing with Big Ten opponents. |
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11-24-23 | Suns -6.5 v. Grizzlies | 110-89 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
I find this number short given that both teams were idle on Thanksgiving and the Suns shouldn't lack a killer instinct. |
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11-24-23 | Air Force v. Boise State -6 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 54 m | Show |
It has been a tumultuous season for Boise State to say the least, culminating in the firing of head coach Andy Avalos. But with their season on the line, the Broncos responded under popular interim coach Spencer Danielson rallying from a 10-0 deficit to beat Utah State, 45-10, as 4 1/2-point road favorites last week.
This victory was significant because it moved the Broncos' record to 6-5 keeping them alive in the Mountain West Conference title race and boosting their chances of earning a bowl bid for the 26th straight year. A key for the Broncos was having their two best running backs, George Holani and Ashton Jeanty, healthy and ready to play at the same time. The Boise State players thought so highly of Danielson they presented him the game ball from that victory. It was Danielson's first game as head coach of the Broncos. Air Force, on the other hand, is heading in the opposite direction as down as it has been all season. The Falcons opened 8-0. But the roof has caved in on them this month. It started three weeks ago with a stunning, 23-3, loss to rival Army as 18-point favorites. The Falcons then lost, 27-13, on the road to Hawaii as 20 1/2-point favorites followed by a 31-27 home loss to UNLV. Air Force was favored by a field goal in that game and blew a 24-7 lead. The Falcons' confidence is shaky at best, while Boise State has all the momentum plus a very strong home field edge at Albertsons Stadium. The Broncos have defeated Air Force in five of the last six seasons, including 19-14 last season as 2-point road favorites. |
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11-24-23 | Oilers v. Capitals OVER 6.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are superstars. They are superstars because of their scoring abilities, not their defense. Both have negative plus/minus marks on the season. |
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11-24-23 | Dolphins v. Jets OVER 40.5 | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 39 h 27 m | Show | |
The weather will be fine for this Friday matchup. So the total can't be this low on a Dolphins game. Miami is the best offensive team in the NFL being first in points at 30.5 a game and in yards at 434.  The previous lowest total on a Miami game this season was 44. Now look at this total. The reason is Tim Boyle being the Jets' newly named starting quarterback.  Before getting to Boyle, it should be pointed out the Jets' defense is wearing down from overwork. New York is giving up an average of 25 points a game during its past three games. If Miami hits its season average, or even close to it, the Jets don't need to put up many points.  Can they do it with Boyle?  Boyle's numbers are terrible. He has thrown 120 NFL passes resulting in three touchdowns and nine interceptions. But there's a key intangible here. The Jets will have a different frame of mind instead of a defeatist attitude they had with Zach Wilson.  Boyle has more experience than Wilson. He prepares extremely hard. He also is in sync with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and Aaron Rodgers from his two years spent with those guys as a backup quarterback for the Packers.  The Dolphins rank 23rd in scoring defense allowing 23.8 points a game. Boyle has two excellent weapons in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. This is the Jets' season so they'll be less conservative.Â
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11-24-23 | BYU v. Arizona State +10.5 | 77-49 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
No knock on BYU. I just think this is a good buy-low spot on Arizona State. The Sun Devils narrowly escaped getting upset at home by UMass Lowell in their last game. That was a week ago. So the Sun Devils should be rested and well prepared for this neutral site matchup in Las Vegas as part of the Las Vegas Showdown tournament. |
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11-23-23 | Commanders +13.5 v. Cowboys | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
This clearly is a buy low on the Commanders sell high on the Cowboys play. |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions -7.5 | Top | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
The Lions, to the surprise of their many cynics, are living up to their considerable preseason hype. They are 8-2. Detroit hasn't been that good through 10 games since 1962. The Lions happened to host the Packers that year, too, in their annual Thanksgiving game. Detroit dealt Vince Lombardi's Packers their only defeat of that season in that Thanksgiving matchup. |
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11-22-23 | New Mexico -7.5 v. Rice | Top | 90-56 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
I can't see Rice hanging in against New Mexico in this neutral site matchup in Henderson, Nevada as part of the Ball Dawgs Classic Tournament. Rice has lost three in a row and ranks 339th in scoring defense giving up 82.3 points and 346th in defensive field goal percentage. |
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11-22-23 | Devils v. Red Wings OVER 6.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
The Devils are an Over machine with their combination of great offense and bad defense. New Jersey has gone Over in 13 of its 16 games for 81 percent. The Devils have the No. 1 power play in the NHL and rank sixth in scoring, but 29th defensively.
The Devils also have Jack Hughes healthy again. He has 22 points in 11 games. The Red Wings are the eighth-highest scoring team in the league, but are below par defensively. They've given up 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 11 games. The Devils have scored at least 3 goals in 14 of their 16 games. |
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11-21-23 | Jazz +7.5 v. Lakers | 99-131 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Too many points for the Lakers to lay. Only twice in 14 games have the Lakers beaten a team by more than six points. Those two teams were the Trail Blazers and Grizzlies, who are a combined 6-20. |
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11-21-23 | Blazers +13 v. Suns | Top | 107-120 | Push | 0 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Down all of their best backcourt scorers with Damian Lillard traded and Anfernee Simons, Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson each hurt, the Trail Blazers are tough to get behind. Portland has lost seven in a row and is the lowest-scoring team in the NBA. |
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11-21-23 | Pacers +4 v. Hawks | 157-152 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
This has the makings of a crazy, high-scoring game where the last team with the ball wins. That's one reason why I like the underdog Pacers. Another is Indiana is off an embarrassing 12-point home loss to Orlando this past Sunday in a game where the final doesn't fully reflect how bad the Magic stomped the Pacers.
Rick Carlisle was far from pleased with the defensive effort of his Pacers. Indiana has won and covered the past three times following a defeat. |
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11-20-23 | Eagles v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 52 m | Show |
The Chiefs beat the Eagles at a neutral site in the Super Bowl and they'll beat them at home. The Chiefs are 11-1 in their last dozen home games.
Kansas City is the healthier team and has the better defense. It's remarkable how good the Chiefs' defense has gotten. Kansas City ranks No. 2 in scoring defense giving up 15.9 points per game, ranks fourth in fewest yards allowed and is fifth in pass defense. The Eagles' defense can't match that given their vulnerable secondary. Philadelphia entered this week allowing 19 TD passes, third-worst in the league, while ranking 28th in pass defense. Jalen Hurts might be the second-best QB in football. But Patrick Mahomes is No. 1. Hurts also will be missing his third-best receiver, injured tight end Dallas Goedert. Both teams were idle last week. No coach in history has been better off a bye than Andy Reid, who is 21-3 in that role. |
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11-20-23 | Heat -115 v. Bulls | 118-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Miami had won seven straight games entering this past Saturday's road matchup against the Bulls. The Heat scored 22 of the first 23 points against Chicago leading them to overconfidence. |
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11-20-23 | Oregon -20 v. Florida A&M | 67-54 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Oregon has some injuries, but I have to go with my power ratings and I have the Ducks 24-point favorites here so I'm laying this number.  These same two teams played in Oregon last season and the Ducks buried Florida A&M, 80-45.  Oregon is 3-0. The Ducks rolled past Tennessee State, 92-67, at home as 18 1/2-point favorites in their last game this past Friday.  Florida A&M can't compete at this level. The Rattlers are 0-3. Their three losses all were by blowouts - 105-54 to Creighton, 81-54 to Nebraska and 89-68 to Florida.   The Rattlers are deficient in rebounding and commit way too many turnovers to stay in this game against this caliber of opponent.Â
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11-19-23 | Vikings v. Broncos -133 | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 22 m | Show | |
The Broncos have their confidence up riding a three-game winning streak with the last two victories coming against the Bills and Chiefs. |
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11-19-23 | Winnipeg v. Montreal +8 | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
Winnipeg was upset by Toronto in last year's Grey Cup. I can see the Blue Bombers getting upset again by a hot Montreal team. I'll certainly take more than a touchdown to find out. All the pressure is on the Blue Bombers. |
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11-19-23 | Chargers -3 v. Packers | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 42 m | Show |
As inconsistent as the Chargers are, I don't see them losing to the Packers. |
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11-19-23 | Raiders v. Dolphins -11.5 | 13-20 | Loss | -120 | 123 h 24 m | Show | |
Afraid to lay big chalk in the NFL? Don't be. Double-digit favorites are 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS.  Look for the Dolphins to continue that run of success. Miami comes off its bye with De'Von Achane eligible to play again and Jaylen Waddle at 100 percent. The Raiders' soft zone coverage may work against Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson, but Tua Tagovailoa is going to pick their vulnerable secondary apart.  The Dolphins lead the NFL in most points and yards by wide margins. They've lit up far better defenses than the Raiders.  Not only does offensive mastermind Mike McDaniel have extra time to prepare more innovations, but the Raiders are traveling cross-country to play at an early start time for them. This is with a rookie QB and rookie head coach.  Miami has beaten all the mediocre-to-bad teams on its schedule. The Dolphins' losses have come when stepping up - Bills, Eagles and Chiefs. This is a monster step down after their last game against the Chiefs. The Dolphins, by the way, had their best defensive half of the season in that game holding Kansas City scoreless in the second half.  The Dolphins have been dominant at home, too, winning 16 of the past 18 times. The Raiders are 0-4 SU, 0-3-1 during their past four road games. They have road losses of 28 points to the Bills, 18 points to the Bears and 12 points to the Lions.Â
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11-19-23 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 42 h 10 m | Show | |
This has the potential for being a below-the-radar shootout. Trevor Lawrence is way overdue for a big game and he's dropping way down in class after going against the 49ers last week. |
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11-19-23 | Cardinals +6 v. Texans | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 42 h 7 m | Show | |
The Texans are 5-0 as an underdog this season. However, when favored they are 0-3 ATS this season. Until this season, the Texans hadn't been favored in 22 consecutive games. Yes, Houston is much improved thanks to C.J. Stroud and better coaching. But the Texans are overpriced because this isn't the Cardinals of past weeks. |
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11-18-23 | Portland v. Nevada -13.5 | 83-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
Nevada upset Washington on the road two games ago and then rolled past Pacific, 88-39, at home three days ago. Now the WolfPack draw another bad West Coast Conference team, Portland. |
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11-18-23 | Texas v. Iowa State +7.5 | 26-16 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 11 m | Show | |
Texas is 9-1 with a huge non-conference victory against Alabama. But the Longhorns haven't been so high and mighty lately. |
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11-18-23 | Kentucky v. South Carolina +1.5 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 68 h 39 m | Show | |
The schedule has turned for these two teams - and so have the results. |
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11-18-23 | Minnesota v. Ohio State UNDER 50.5 | 3-37 | Win | 100 | 64 h 24 m | Show | |
Woody Hayes would be proud. Ohio State ranks No. 2 in the nation in fewest points allowed at 9.9 per game. |
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11-18-23 | NC State v. Virginia Tech UNDER 44.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 54 m | Show |
Not only have these two run-oriented teams improved defensively, but they also have greatly slowed down their pace. |
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11-18-23 | Illinois v. Iowa OVER 30 | 13-15 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 43 m | Show | |
These Iowa totals have gotten ridiculous. I understand the Hawkeyes have still gone Under in their last five games, but this low total doesn't fully account for Illinois being the opponent and Iowa suffering a key defensive injury.
Look, I respect Iowa's defense. The Hawkeyes have the third-best scoring defense in the nation surrendering just 12.3 points. Illinois, however, has some speedy skill position weapons and gets back starting QB Luke Altmyer. If Altmyer struggles, the Illini can turn to senior backup John Paddock. He filled in for Altmyer last week and threw for 507 yards in a 48-45 overtime victory against Indiana earning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week honors. The Illini have averaged 29.2 points in regulation during their last four games. They've played some respectable defenses, too, during this span in Wisconsin and Minnesota. Note that the Hawkeyes aren't going to have star cornerback Cooper DeJean, who suffered a serious leg injury in practice this week. DeJean could be Iowa's best player. I'm not a fan of Iowa QB Deacon Hill. But he has gained plenty of experience having started the last six games. Illinois does not represent a high bar defensively. The Illini rank 101st in scoring defense giving up nearly 30 points a game. |
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11-17-23 | Pistons +9 v. Cavs | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
The 5-6 Cavaliers aren't good enough to overlook any opponent, especially when they might be without their assist leader and third-leading scorer, Darius Garland. He's questionable with a neck injury that kept him out of Clevaland's last game. That was a 14-point road victory against the Trail Blazers this past Wednesday. |
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11-16-23 | Panthers v. Kings OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
The Kings are the No. 2 scoring team in the NHL. They have produced 3 or more goals in 11 of their last 13 games. The Kings should really be on the attack after losing their last game, 4-2, at home to the Flyers. That was back on Saturday so they'll have fresh legs. |
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11-16-23 | UMass Lowell +7.5 v. Arizona State | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Arizona State has the bigger name. But Massachusetts Lowell is very underrated. It wouldn't shock me if the 3-0 River Hawks upset the Sun Devils straight-up. Lowell did just that against Georgia Tech beating the Yellow Jackets, 74-71, on the road this past Tuesday. The River Hawks won a school-record 26 games last season. Lowell also has an impressive 33-point blowout victory against Dartmouth this season.Â
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11-15-23 | Eastern Illinois v. Illinois State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 61-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Eastern Illinois has played two Division I opponents so far this season scoring 52 points versus Illinois and 69 against Loyola Chicago. The Panthers were one of the weakest scoring teams last season and nothing has changed much this season.
Illinois State is a Missouri Valley Conference team. That says enough about the Redbirds' defense and style of play. It's slow and methodical. Eastern Illinois also prefers a slow tempo. These teams met last season. Guess how many points they combined for? 103. So I find this total way too high. |
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11-15-23 | Mavs v. Wizards UNDER 245 | 130-117 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
Taking the Under in a Washington Wizards game can cause anxiety not to mention a loss in the bankroll. But I find this total just too high considering the Mavericks' circumstances and the Wizards' current form. Dallas suffered its worst loss of the season last night to the Pelicans, 131-110. The Mavericks should be fired-up following that embarrassment. This is the second of back-to-back games for Dallas, though. So the pace could be toned down. There's also the chance that either Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving is rested.  The Wizards are highly volatile. There have been just 196 and 218 combined points scored in Washington's last two games.Â
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11-14-23 | Blazers +6.5 v. Jazz | 99-115 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
When it's bad on bad like this, take the points especially when it goes past the key basketball number of six. |
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11-14-23 | Lightning -125 v. Blues | 0-5 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
The Blues are 4-1 in their last five games. They stunned Colorado, 8-2, on the road in their last game this past Saturday. Tampa Bay lost its last two games, both at home to the Blackhawks and to the Hurricanes in their last game four days ago. |
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11-14-23 | Texas State v. Oklahoma -15 | Top | 54-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Oklahoma is looking for a strong season in its final year in the Big 12 Conference. That means a return to the NCAA Tournament, something that didn't happen last season. So the Sooners will look to win by lopsided margins. |
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