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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-01-24 | Heat +14.5 v. Celtics | Top | 84-118 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
I'm betting that desperation, excellent defense and fine coaching will keep the Heat inside of this large number in this Game 5 playoff matchup. Miami is eliminated by a loss. |
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05-01-24 | Rays -115 v. Brewers | 1-7 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Just like many of his teammates, Zach Eflin is off to a slow start after going 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA last season.
I expect a strong effort from Eflin and the Rays after a bench-clearing brawl during Tuesday night's games. Something like that can ignite a sleepy team. Milwaukee starter Colin Rea is 2-0 with a 3.25 ERA. I expect regression from him. Rea's ERA the past three years were 4.55, 7.50 and 5.79. Rea doesn't generate many strikeouts. The Rays can exploit this. The Brewers remain without injured outfielder Christian Yelich. |
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04-30-24 | Magic v. Cavs -4.5 | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
The Magic blew out the Cavaliers twice at home, 121-83 and 112-89, to even this series at 2-2. |
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04-30-24 | Giants -124 v. Red Sox | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
The Red Sox have been getting great pitching in building a 16-13 record. I don't see that continuing starting with this game. |
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04-29-24 | Thunder v. Pelicans OVER 204.5 | 97-89 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
The Pelicans have yet to break 92 points in falling behind 3-0 in their series against the Thunder. So now after seeing totals of 216 1/2, 210 and 210, we have the lowest total of the series. |
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04-29-24 | Yankees v. Orioles -127 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
The Yankees got their bats going, scoring 30 runs on 37 hits in posting Saturday and Sunday victories against the Brewers. |
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04-28-24 | Wolves v. Suns OVER 212.5 | 122-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
Normally I'd prefer Under rather than Over when it comes to NBA playoff basketball. But in this case, I find the value to be on the Over. |
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04-28-24 | Diamondbacks v. Mariners UNDER 7 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
The Diamondbacks have scored a meager one run in each of their last three games. Now they are facing the pitcher who I believe is the most underrated in baseball - Logan Gilbert. He has a 1.87 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. I don't see Arizona doing much against Gilbert especially on the road in Seattle's tough pitching park. |
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04-28-24 | Clippers +6 v. Mavs | Top | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
I'm taking the Clippers in this point range knowing Kawhi Leonard isn't going to be 100 percent - and that's if he even plays. He's questionable due to knee soreness.
But I want the better defensive team, which are the Clippers, and this many points in what shapes up as an intense, defensive-focused matchup. The first three games of the series all went Under. Now we have the lowest total of the four games. LA has held Dallas to an average of 98 points during the first three games. Down 2-1 in the series, the Clippers will be at their most intense. It's not that they're lacking star power with James Harden, Paul George and a combative Russell Westbrook. The problem for the Clippers is cold-shooting. They are 18-for-54 from 3-point range, which is 25 percent. The Clippers made 38 percent of their 3-pointers during the regular season. The Mavericks' defense is below average, ranking 20th in points allowed and 18th in 3-point defense. The Clippers have a top-10 defense. I'm not counting on him being out, but Luka Doncic is questionable because of a sore knee. It would be an unexpected bonus if he didn't play. Tim Hardaway is doubtful with an ankle sprain. He's the Mavericks' third-leading scorer. |
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04-27-24 | Rays -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -135 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
Give me a reason, any reason, to fade the 4-22 White Sox. OK, I have one. The Rays just were embarrassed, 9-4, by the White Sox on Friday night.  The White Sox haven't won two in a row all season. They are the worst offensive team in baseball by far ranking last in various major categories, including runs, batting average and homers. I don't see Tampa Bay starter Aaron Civale having too much trouble handling such a weak lineup.  The Rays should do plenty of damage against rookie White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon, who has a 7.27 ERA and 1.62 WHIP.Â
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04-27-24 | Yankees -125 v. Brewers | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show | |
Both teams are off to excellent starts. I'm not sold on the Brewers, though, and I'm especially not sold on Joe Ross. He has a 4.05 ERA. Milwaukee is 1-3 in his starts.  Yankees starter Carlos Rodon, on the other, is bouncing back nicely from last season. He has given up two runs or fewer in four of his five starts. Rodon has a 2.70 ERA. He hasn't surrendered a home run in his last three starts.Â
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04-27-24 | Cavs v. Magic -130 | 89-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
The Magic are a young, inexperienced playoff team that desperately needed a confidence boost after losing the first two games of the series to Cleveland on the road. The Magic got that this past Thursday when they came home and buried the Cavaliers, 121-83.  I see the Magic riding that confidence and swagger rewarding their home crowd with another victory. The Magic gave up fewer points per game than the Cavaliers during the regular season, ranking fourth. Orlando's offense has improved during each game of the series.  The key, though, was the Magic's domination on the boards. Orlando outrebounded the Cavaliers, 51-32, in the last game.
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04-26-24 | Wolves v. Suns -4 | Top | 126-109 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
Down 2-0 in the series and fresh from hearing Minnesota fans screaming, "Wolves in four! Wolves in four," I expect a monster effort here from the Suns. |
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04-26-24 | Wolves v. Suns OVER 207.5 | 126-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
Defense comes to the forefront during playoff basketball. But there has been too much of a lower adjustment on this total, especially with the Suns returning to Phoenix to host the Timberwolves. This is the lowest total of the series and Phoenix's lowest total of the season. |
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04-26-24 | Royals v. Tigers -111 | 8-0 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
The Royals and Tigers are two of the most improved teams in baseball. I slightly favor the Tigers' pitching matchup with promising Reese Olson against Seth Lugo, a mediocre journeyman. |
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04-25-24 | Knicks v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
I've never seen Joel Embiid more mad than after the Knicks', 104-101, Game 2 win this past Monday. |
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04-25-24 | Panthers v. Lightning -105 | 5-3 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
After a pair of one-goal road losses to the Panthers, the price is right to back the Lightning at home for Game 3 of their Stanley Cup Series. The frustrated Lightning probably should have won Tuesday's Game 2, but were defeated in overtime. |
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04-25-24 | Astros -119 v. Cubs | 1-3 | Loss | -119 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
The Astros are 1-7 in their last eight games and in danger of being swept by the Cubs. |
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04-24-24 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs -107 | 4-2 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Normally I don't care to back the Maple Leafs in the Stanley Cup playoffs given their sad postseason history. But this is a good spot for Toronto. The Maple Leafs' confidence is up after they evening the series at 1-1 with a 3-2 victory against the Bruins this past Monday. That victory also snapped an eight-game losing streak to Boston.  Now the Maple Leafs are at home. They could get William Nylander back. That would be huge. Nylander, second on the team in goals and points, has missed the first two games because of injury.  The Bruins are down a defenseman in their rotation with Andrew Peeke suffering an injury.Â
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04-24-24 | Brewers +105 v. Pirates | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Look for the Brewers to get back on track here. Pittsburgh has won the first two games of this series. Milwaukee has stranded 12 baserunners. But I see that changing in a pitching matchup of Bryse Wilson for the Brewers against Josh Fleming.  Wilson is pitching well with a 1.00 ERA during his past four outings spanning nine innings. He is 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA in five career outings against the Pirates, his former team. This includes a pair of starts. Fleming hasn't thrown more than three innings in a game this season. So this shapes up as a bullpen game for Pittsburgh. The Pirates have the 10th-highest bullpen ERA.Â
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04-23-24 | Mariners -107 v. Rangers | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Tough spot, tough starting pitching to go against. That's the situation the Rangers face today. |
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04-23-24 | Astros -108 v. Cubs | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
The Houston Astros have been playing like the Houston Colts .45s. Hard to believe, but the Astros are 7-16. Houston is down from its recent past dominant seasons, but they haven't regressed this much!
What the Astros needed was a day off to regroup and get focused again. They got that on Monday being idle. That means a rested bullpen and a rested Josh Hader. This is good news for starter J.P. France, who held the Braves to two runs on four hits in five innings this past Wednesday in his last start. The Braves are the top offensive team in baseball. The Cubs are going with Jordan Wicks, who is 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA. Wicks has yet to complete five innings during any of his first four starts this year. The Cubs have been vulnerable at closer with Adbert Alzolay blowing four of his first seven save opportunities. Chicago has been without outfielder Ian Happ the past two games due to a hamstring injury. He's second on the Cubs in runs scored. He's questionable. Bottom line is I like the pitching matchup for the Astros - both starter and bullpen - and they are due to start turning things around. The price is right to back them. |
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04-23-24 | Suns v. Wolves OVER 212 | Top | 93-105 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
Even though this is playoff basketball, this is too short of a total given the star power these teams possess. |
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04-22-24 | Orioles +107 v. Angels | 4-2 | Win | 107 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm not turning down the Orioles at an underdog price against the 9-13 Angels, who are in a tough situational spot having just finished a 10-game road trip on Sunday. This is the Angels' first home game in 12 days and they've had no time to get settled back home and into their own time zone after playing at Boston, Tampa Bay and Cincinnati.  The Orioles lead the majors in homers and are No. 2 in runs. Baltimore is one of the best teams in baseball at 14-7. The Orioles are 6-1 in their last seven games with all of those victories during this span coming by more than one run.  The Angels are favored because the pitching matchup is Albert Suarez vs Red Detmers.  Suarez hasn't been scored upon in 5 2/3 innings this season. Detmers, though, has been Cy Young award-winning sharp, going 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 22 2/3 innings.Â
 The Angels, however, have managed only seven runs in their last four games. Aside from Mike Trout, they have no outstanding hitters. The Orioles, by contrast, have a tough lineup all the way down to their No. 9 hitter. |
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04-22-24 | Orioles v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 4-2 | Win | 103 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
The Angels are a below average offensive team and in a scoring slump with just seven runs in their last four games. Orioles starter Albert Suarez is on the comeback trail. He has yet to be scored upon in 5 2/3 innings this season. |
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04-22-24 | Magic v. Cavs OVER 202.5 | Top | 86-96 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
Having had the Under in Game 1 this past Saturday, I wasn't surprised when only 180 points were produced in the Cavaliers', 97-83, home victory against the Magic. |
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04-21-24 | Predators +129 v. Canucks | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
There's a lot of built-in pressure on the Canucks hosting their first Stanley Cup game in nine years. I believe the Predators - an excellent road team at 24-14-3 - can steal this first one in Vancouver. |
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04-21-24 | Rangers v. Braves OVER 10 | 6-4 | Push | 0 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
The Braves are the best offensive team in baseball. They rank first in runs, batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage. Atlanta is swinging hot bats right now averaging 6.5 runs in its last six games. |
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04-21-24 | Avalanche v. Jets -104 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker is giving Colorado too much respect with this line. The Avalanche is a much better home than road team. Winnipeg is a blazing 8-0 in its last eight games. This includes a 7-0 road win against the Avalanche just eight days ago. That victory also meant a season sweep against Colorado for Winnipeg.
The Avalanche enter Stanley Cup play with a losing record during their last 11 games. I don't see the Avalanche having a big scoring game on the road against the Jets, who tied the Panthers for fewest goals allowed during the regular season at 2.4 per game. |
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04-21-24 | Heat +14.5 v. Celtics | Top | 94-114 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Can Boston just turn it off and on? I'll take this many points with Miami to find out. |
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04-20-24 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins -120 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Boston owned Toronto during the regular season winning all four games, including capturing the last two meetings by three goals apiece in each game. |
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04-20-24 | Orioles v. Royals UNDER 8 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -114 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
Don't look for many runs to be scored in this Orioles-Royals game. Both teams have their aces going. Corbin Burnes for Baltimore and emerging star Cole Ragans for Kansas City. Burnes has a 2.28 ERA and Ragans' ERA is 1.93. The top bullpen arms are fresh, too, for this game.  This is a rematch of an April 3 game when the Orioles won, 4-3. Ragans didn't give up a run in that contest. He allowed only one hit, two walks and struck out seven in 6 1/3 innings. Burnes gave up two runs in 5 2/3 innings.  The weather and slated home plate umpire are good signs, too, for an Under. Temperatures are going to be in the low 50s with the wind blowing in at around 10 mph.  Ryan Blakney is scheduled to be behind the plate. The Under has cashed in 19 of Blakney's last 29 games as home plate umpire going back to last season for 66 percent.Â
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04-20-24 | Angels v. Reds -124 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
The Angels have a weak offense with the exception of Mike Trout and are going with a below average pitcher in Patrick Sandoval. The Reds are sixth in the majors in runs, lead the league in steals, are home and have the superior starter going in Graham Ashcraft.  Cincinnati got back on track with an impressive, 7-1, home win against the Angels on Friday after having lost three in a row to the Mariners in Seattle.Â
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04-20-24 | Magic v. Cavs UNDER 208.5 | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Two outstanding defensive teams here in what should be an intense, grind-it-out opening-round Eastern Conference series. Throw in an unusual start time and a six-day rust factor and the Under should pay off. |
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04-19-24 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -120 | 17-1 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm not scared off by Blake Snell's 0-2 record and 12.86 ERA through two starts with the Giants. His high ground ball rate is there so I'm not worried. I'm expecting positive regression starting with this game against a Diamondbacks team that is 2-5 on the road and whose batting numbers are well below par away from home.  Snell has dominated the Diamondbacks with a 5-1 mark and 1.11 ERA in eight career starts.  Arizona starter Jordan Montgomery is making his season debut. Montgomery isn't nearly where he should be. He pitched 7 2/3 innings for Triple-A Reno working his way into shape after signing with the Diamondbacks where his ERA was 10.57.  The price is low enough to back Snell and the Giants.Â
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04-19-24 | Kings v. Pelicans +1.5 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
I know why the Kings are a road favorite against the Pelicans in this loser-goes-home play-in game. New Orleans won't have injured Zion Williamson, the Pelicans are off two losses to the Lakers and the Kings looked great in eliminating the Warriors, 118-94, at home this past Tuesday. |
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04-18-24 | Blackhawks +312 v. Kings | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
At this price, I'm going to take a shot on the Blackhawks. The Kings have clinched a playoff berth. So they could be resting players to get ready for the Stanley Cup. |
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04-18-24 | Guardians +115 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-4 | Win | 115 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Given their injuries, the Red Sox have done well to open the season 10-9. Boston has received outstanding starting pitching and power from Tyler O'Neil, who is second in the majors in homers with seven. |
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04-17-24 | Oilers v. Coyotes +156 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 156 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
I'm going to accept this price on the home underdog Coyotes, who are likely playing their final game in Arizona. The team is expected to move to Salt Lake City next season. |
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04-17-24 | Heat v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 104-105 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
There's a reason the Bucks and other NBA teams didn't want to draw Philadelphia in the playoffs. The 76ers are the hottest team in the league winning and covering each of their last eight games. This includes a four-point win at Miami on April 4. The 76ers have covered the past nine times they've been favored. |
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04-16-24 | Nationals v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
The Nationals have one quality start this season. Don't expect them to have two after this game against the Dodgers. Patrick Corbin is starting for Washington. He hasn't been good since 2019. |
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04-16-24 | Lakers v. Pelicans UNDER 223.5 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
It's playoff time now in the NBA. That means the defensive intensity goes way up. This matchup should be a perfect example of that. |
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04-15-24 | Padres -115 v. Brewers | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Down star closer Devin Williams and leading the majors in batting average with runners in scoring position entering yesterday, the Brewers are off to a National League-best 10-4 start. |
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04-15-24 | Canadiens v. Red Wings -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
I see the Red Wings winning this game by multiple goals. It's Detroit's final regular season home game and the Red Wings are fired-up after upsetting the Maple Leafs on the road this past Saturday. That dramatic overtime victory keep the Red Wings' playoff hopes alive. The Canadiens are 1-5 in their last six games and out of playoff contention. |
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04-15-24 | Guardians v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Both teams will be back in action less than 24 hours after playing on Sunday. That's because this is the traditional Patriot's Day holiday game in Boston with a weird Monday 11:10 a.m. East Coast time start. |
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04-14-24 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
The Dodgers and Padres rank first and second, respectively, in most home runs this season. The Padres have a top-10 offense and the Dodgers a top-five attack. |
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04-14-24 | Lakers +3.5 v. Pelicans | 124-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are expected to play. The Lakers need this win to clinch the No. 8 playoff spot. New Orleans is 1-5 in its last six home games and hasn't had Brandon Ingram since March 31.  That's enough for me to back the Lakers in an underdog role.  The Pelicans need this game, too, to lock into the No. 6 seed in the West. But I don't trust them. They've been better on the road than at home where they are just three games above .500. Ingram is the Pelicans' second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game. If he does play, he figures to be rusty. |
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04-14-24 | Rockets -132 v. Clippers | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
The Rockets want to finish at .500. They need to win this game to accomplish that.
The Clippers are locked into their playoff spot, which is the No. 4 seed in the West. They have nothing to play for so I doubt Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden even see the floor for the Clippers. |
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04-13-24 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks +102 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 102 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
Kyle Gibson wasn't very good in the American League and he's not very good in the National League either. Gibson is with his fourth team in the last four years. He is an ineffective journeyman pitcher whose ERA has been above 5.00 in four of the past six seasons, including 6.23 this year.
Gibson should not be a road favorite against the National League defending champion Diamondbacks. Yet that's the way this game opened. It opened that way because Arizona is starting Ryne Nelson, who is 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA. Nelson, though, has faced the Braves and Yankees this season. The Braves have the best offense in the majors and the Yankees are in the top-10 in home runs. Now Nelson, an excellent buy low candidate, is stepping down in class as the Cardinals rank 21st in runs, 23rd in home runs and 25th in batting average. I peg the 26-year-old Nelson to be much improved this season with added velocity to his fastball and improved secondary pitches. He was outstanding during spring training compiling a 2.66 ERA in 20 1/3 innings with 26 strikeouts in his five starts. The Diamondbacks have a far better offense than St. Louis ranking in the top-six in runs and batting average, while hitting the eighth-most homers. Gibson has surrendered four homers in 13 innings. |
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04-12-24 | Bulls v. Wizards +2 | Top | 129-127 | Push | 0 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Surprised the Bulls opened such a short favorite against the Wizards? (Update: The favorite has flipped since I released this play early in the morning. Still, while some line value has been lost, I expect the Wizards to soundly win this game. The Bulls already have ruled out Andre Drummond and Ayo Dosunmu. DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso are questionable.)Â |
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04-11-24 | Bulls -9.5 v. Pistons | 127-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a get-right spot for the Bulls, who have incentive to host the Hawks in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament. |
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04-11-24 | Flyers v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
The Rangers have dominated this series going 9-0-1 during the past 10 meetings, including beating the Flyers the past six times.
New York is trying to win its division and won't lack motivation especially after losing to the Devils two days ago. This is more of a fade against Philadelphia, though. The Flyers have lost eight straight games with six of the defeats occurring by multiple goals. The Flyers have been outscored by 24 goals during their eight-game losing streak. |
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04-10-24 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 226.5 | 124-108 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
These two teams just played last night at Phoenix. The Clippers built a huge lead and coasted to a 105-92 win. |
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04-10-24 | White Sox v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
Tanner Bibee is going to look very good pitching on Wednesday. How's that? What major league pitcher wouldn't look good going against hitters such as Robbie Grossman, Nicky Lopez, Lenny Sosa, Kevin Pillar, Paul DeJong and Martin Maldonado. |
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04-09-24 | Wizards +16.5 v. Wolves | 121-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
The Timberwolves are tied with the Nuggets for the top spot in the Western Conference. Minnesota plays in Denver against the Nuggets on Wednesday in a huge national TV (ESPN) matchup. |
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04-09-24 | Knicks v. Bulls +5 | 128-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
I find value in this line considering the Knicks were minus 1 1/2 against the Bulls in Chicago last Friday. The Bulls won that game, 108-100, despite the Knicks shooting better from 3-point range and getting eight more free throw attempts than Chicago.
The Knicks haven't been at the top of their game. They are 2-4 in their last six games. I don't put a whole lot of stock into their 122-109 road win against the Bucks, who have lost four in a row including losses to the Wizards, Raptors and Grizzlies. |
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04-09-24 | Magic -3 v. Rockets | 106-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Orlando is a bit banged-up, but this is a short number for the Magic to lay against a dead Rockets team. |
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04-09-24 | Heat -3.5 v. Hawks | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Driven by trying to gain an automatic playoff berth and revenge, Miami should cover this short road number. |
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04-09-24 | Pistons +16.5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
It's a bonus if Cade Cunningham is available to play. He's questionable after missing the last three games due to knee soreness. |
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04-08-24 | Golden Knights +106 v. Canucks | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
Vancouver is leading the Pacific Division. But the Canucks have been struggling since losing their top goalie, Thatcher Demko, to a lower body injury. |
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04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 145.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Come tournament time strong defenses have turned into great defenses. That's the case with Purdue and Connecticut. |
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04-08-24 | Brewers v. Reds -104 | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
Aaron Ashby is set to make his first big league appearance in two years. He's facing the Reds in Cincinnati. I have little confidence in Ashby and I don't trust a makeshift Brewers bullpen that is minus their star closer, Devin Williams.  The Brewers have allowed 21 runs during their last four games. Ashby has a 5.19 career ERA vs the Reds in three appearances, including one start. Cincinnati has scored four or more runs in seven of its nine games. The Reds have produced six or more runs in five of those nine games.  The Reds are starting Graham Aschcroft, who I rate higher than Ashby.Â
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04-07-24 | Pelicans v. Suns UNDER 222.5 | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Yes, these teams have firepower. But both teams have been playing excellent defense lately. Their defenses are underrated. The Pelicans are fourth in defensive field goal percentage, while the Suns rank seventh in the category. |
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04-07-24 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
The White Sox didn't have much firepower entering the season and now they are without their two best offensive players with Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jimenez both on the injured list. |
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04-06-24 | Red Sox v. Angels -110 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm looking for the Angels to bounce back and beat Boston after losing to the Red Sox last night. Trevor Story was injured in that game. That could bother the Red Sox in this matchup. It certainly hurts their middle infield situation. |
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04-06-24 | Hawks v. Nuggets -12 | Top | 110-142 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
By virtue of winning six of their last eight games, the Hawks have clinched a play-in berth. So they don't have huge incentive here. |
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04-05-24 | Kings +9.5 v. Celtics | Top | 100-101 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
I understand the Kings just blew a 21-point lead in suffering a 120-109 road loss to the Knicks Thursday night. |
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04-04-24 | 76ers v. Heat -2.5 | Top | 109-105 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
Sparked by Joel Embiid's return after missing nine weeks due to knee surgery, the 76ers beat the Thunder, 109-105, at home on Tuesday. The 76ers are going to be careful with Embiid. This is going to be a much tougher task for the 76ers playing the Heat in Miami. It's Philadelphia's fourth straight different venue. |
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04-03-24 | Canucks v. Coyotes +130 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
The Coyotes have a winning record at Mullett Arena. They've won five of their last seven home games. |
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04-03-24 | Pistons +11.5 v. Hawks | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
The Hawks are riding high after an important, 113-101, win against the Bulls two days ago. The Hawks are at the Mavericks on Thursday night in a challenging matchup. |
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04-02-24 | Red Sox -144 v. A's | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
We knew the A's were going to be terrible this season and they certainly have lived up to expectations. The 1-4 A's have been outscored, 38-11. They have committed more errors with 13 than they have scored runs. |
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04-02-24 | Lakers v. Raptors +12.5 | 128-111 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Yeah, I know. It's tough to get behind the Raptors, losers of 13 in a row.  But the Lakers carry a high fatigue rating, are in a letdown spot, the Raptors could get key players back and have a strong history against the Lakers.  Maybe it's because of LeBron James. But the Raptors get up for the Lakers. They've beaten them seven of the last nine times in Toronto. The Lakers barely beat the Raptors in the first meeting. LA won, 132-131, at home on Jan. 9.  There's a good possibility the Raptors get back both RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley for this game. They've been out for personal reasons.  This is the Lakers' fifth road game in eight days. They are 6-1 in their last seven games and conclude their road trip with a game tomorrow against the Wizards.Â
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04-01-24 | Giants v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
A total that opens below 9 in a Dodgers game is going to pique my interest. This is one of those games. |
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04-01-24 | Guardians -108 v. Mariners | 4-5 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
I'll back Cleveland at around a pick price against Seattle in a pitching matchup of Triston McKenzie vs Emerson Hancock. |
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04-01-24 | Nets v. Pacers OVER 227 | 111-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Tyrese Haliburton is back on his game. That makes the Pacers dangerous - and high-scoring.  Indiana is the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA at 122.7 points a game. The Pacers have reached that season average in seven of their last 10 games. The Nets are a mediocre defensive team and the Pacers have been idle since Friday. So I'm expecting a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Nets only managed 104 points against the Lakers in their last game. But they scored 125 and 112 points in regulation, respectively, during their previous two games. They are going against an Indiana defense that ranks third-from-the-bottom in scoring defense and last in defensive field goal percentage.Â
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03-31-24 | Bulls +8 v. Wolves | Top | 109-101 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
The timing is right for the Bulls to cover this road number - if not pull off a surprising upset. |
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03-31-24 | Cardinals v. Dodgers OVER 9 | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
The Dodgers scored the second most runs in baseball last year and they've taken right where they left off. LA is averaging 6.8 runs in its five games. The Dodgers have scored at least five runs in each game. |
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03-31-24 | Cavs v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 | 101-130 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers rank fifth defensively in the NBA. Denver ranks seventh defensively. Both teams rate in the bottom-seven in pace. The Nuggets are likely to be missing their second-leading scorer, Jamal Murray. He's been out the last four games with a sore knee. |
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03-30-24 | Bucks -3.5 v. Hawks | 122-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
The Hawks still may not have come down to Earth after beating the Celtics in overtime as a 16-point 'dog two days ago. Atlanta is fat and happy with four consecutive victories. |
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03-30-24 | Illinois v. Connecticut OVER 154.5 | Top | 52-77 | Loss | -108 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
How good is Illinois' offense? The Illini just put up 72 points on Iowa State's fifth-ranked defense despite going just 15-of-29 from the foul line for 52 percent. Illinois' season free throw percentage is 74.1 percent. |
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03-30-24 | Twins -118 v. Royals | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
The Royals should be much improved this season, but the Twins are superior and the price is short enough to get involved backing Minnesota.Â
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03-29-24 | Duke +4 v. Houston | 54-51 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
Betting on ACC teams during the NCAA Tournament has been a gold mine. ACC teams are 9-1 SU, 8-1-1 ATS with Duke contributing a 2-0 SU and ATS mark.  The Blue Devils are strong both on offense and defense. The same can't be said for Houston. The Cougars may have the best defense in the country, but their offense was below average. It ranked 165th in scoring, 240th in field goal percentage and 298th in free throw percentage.  Duke has a top-20 defense going by Ken Pom's advanced metrics and averages six points more per game than Houston. The Blue Devils have an elite big man, Kyle Filipowski, and three excellent guards. Houston can't match that offensively.  While the Blue Devils destroyed James Madison, 93-55, in the second round, Houston barely survived. The Cougars needed overtime to slip past Texas A&M after blowing a 13-point lead with under four minutes to play in regulation.Â
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03-29-24 | Lakers v. Pacers -3 | Top | 90-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
The teams met just six days ago in LA. The Lakers won a wild, 150-145, shootout. But it wasn't so much the Lakers winning that irked the Pacers, it was how Los Angeles prevailed. |
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03-28-24 | Illinois v. Iowa State -125 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 11 m | Show |
Illinois already has succeeded in winning more games in the NCAA Tournament, with two victories, than it did during the previous three seasons it was in the tournament.
But I don't see the Illini reaching three wins in their Thursday East Regional semifinal matchup against Iowa State. Defense trumps offense. Illinois ranks 12th in scoring, but 214th defensively and 259th in 3-point defense. Terrence Shannon Jr. has carried Illinois in the tournament averaging 31.6 points. Iowa State averages a respectable 75.7 points a game, but has the fifth-ranked defense in the country. If you judge by Ken Pom's rating then the Cyclones are the best defensive team. Iowa State's TJ Otzelberger may be the best defensive coach in the nation. He's going to be very dangerous given extra preparation time. Look for the Cyclones to slow down and frustrate Shannon and the Illini with how well they double-team and rotate their defense. Iowa State has scoring depth. The Illini heavily rely on Shannon. Illinois did well to win the Big Ten Conference Tournament. The Illini, though, were fortunate to have avoided Purdue and Michigan State. They beat Ohio State, which didn't make the NCAA Tournament, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Those last two teams lost by double-digits in their first-round NCAA Tourney games. Iowa State won the Big 12 Conference Tournament beating Houston, the No. 2 ranked team in the country, 69-41, in the finals. The Cyclones also own victories Baylor and BYU during the past three weeks. I consider the Big 12 to be the toughest conference in the country. |
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03-27-24 | Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 226.5 | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
I'm expecting a lot of defensive intensity in this matchup. The Suns are trying to finish as a top-six team in the West while the Nuggets have revenge for a home loss to the Suns three weeks ago. |
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03-27-24 | Blazers +10.5 v. Hawks | 106-120 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a huge flat spot for Atlanta. The Hawks are off their finest win of the season, coming from 30 points down to upset the Celtics, 120-118, two days ago.  Now the Hawks host the lowly Trail Blazers. After this game, the Hawks host the Celitcs on Thursday and Bucks on Saturday. So you can't blame the Hawks for not getting fully motivated for this matchup even though it's a revenge game. The Trail Blazers defeated Atlanta, 106-102, two weeks ago. Portland is bad, but capable of staying within single digits against a team unlikely to play their "A" game. Just two games ago, the Trail Blazers threw a scare into the world champion Nuggets before losing by only three points.Â
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03-26-24 | Golden Knights v. Predators -139 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
Nashville is a blistering 15-2 in its last 17 games with five consecutive victories. The Predators are riding a franchise-record 17-game point streak. |
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03-25-24 | Pacers v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 133-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The Clippers are 22-12 at home, but coming off an embarrassing 14-point loss to the 76ers in LA on Sunday afternoon. The Clippers are a much better defensive team than the Pacers and won't lack motivation for this matchup following that defeat.  Indiana played, too, yesterday at night where it lost a wild, 150-145, game to the Lakers in LA. The Pacers gave it a great effort trailing by 17 points entering the fourth quarter. That game finished much later than the Clippers game did. The Pacers are 2-10 when playing without rest. They have lost the past four times playing the Clippers in LA losing all of those games by six or more points. So this is a bad spot and bad opponent for Indiana.Â
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03-25-24 | Pacers v. Clippers UNDER 233.5 | 133-116 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
Both the Pacers and Clippers played yesterday and both had bad defensive games. The Clippers lost, 121-107, to the 76ers at home while the Pacers suffered a tough, 150-145, defeat on the road to the Lakers.  Before Sunday, though, each team was playing solid defense.  Indiana had allowed just 105.5 points a game during their previous four games. The Pacers have held six of their last eight opponents to 111 points or fewer.  The Clippers have a top-12 defense. They had surrendered an average of 110.6 points per game during their previous five games before Sunday. Note this, too, about the Pacers: Indiana has gone Under a staggering 16 of the past 17 times (94 percent) when the total is below 240, which it is here.Â
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03-25-24 | Golden Knights v. Blues +134 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
The home 'dog Blues are not getting enough respect here. All the Blues have done is go 6-1 in their last seven games with the only loss during this span coming to the Avalanche by one goal. St. Louis has scored at least three goals in each of its last seven games. The Golden Knights' defense is down from last season. |
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03-25-24 | Chicago State v. Fairfield -5 | 74-77 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
The 23-12 Fairfield Stags are a solid team that has a good offense, ranks 14th in 3-point shooting percentage and 35th in free throw percentage. |
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03-24-24 | Texas A&M +10.5 v. Houston | Top | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
Notice the low total here. It's justified. Houston is the top defensive team in the nation. Texas A&M also is strong defensively. The pace is going to be extremely slow. It means points are going to be hard to come by. So grabbing double-digits is the way to go especially given the line value and various edges that are in favor of the underdog Aggies. |
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03-23-24 | Oregon +5.5 v. Creighton | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
I have tremendous respect for Creighton. The Bluejays are strong on both sides of the ball and have an elite defensive center in Ryan Kalkbrenner. But I'm going to ride Oregon's momentum. The Ducks are at their peak, have a tremendous coach, Dana Altman, and a dominant center, N'Faly Dante. |
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03-22-24 | Grizzlies v. Spurs OVER 215.5 | 99-97 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
This should be a loose game between two teams long eliminated from playoff contention. The injury-decimated Grizzlies have shown more offense and less defense lately. They fired up 49 3-pointers in their last game, a 137-116 road loss to the Warriors two days ago. That was the Grizzlies' fourth straight Over. The Grizzlies have taken on a new persona with rookie GG Jackson II and Santi Aldama firing up a heavy dose of 3-pointers.
Memphis ranks last in the NBA in scoring at 106 points a game. However, in their last three games, they've averaged 111 points in regulation while surrendering 117.5 points per game in regulation during their past four contests. San Antonio has permitted at least 112 points in 25 of its last 30 games. The Spurs are a bottom-five defensive team. |
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03-22-24 | Texas A&M +1.5 v. Nebraska | 98-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Nebraska can't be trusted outside of Lincoln going 5-9 in those games. Texas A&M should dominate on the glass. They also have a hot guard in Wade Taylor, who is coming off consecutive 30-point games. Nebraska has never won an NCAA Tournament game going 0-7. This is the Cornhuskers' first NCAA Tourney appearance in 10 years. Don't expect much. |
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03-22-24 | Yale v. Auburn UNDER 140.5 | 78-76 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
Auburn is used to high-scoring SEC opponents who can play fast. That's certainly not Yale. The Bulldogs are a well-coached Ivy League team that is going to try to frustrate Auburn by playing at their usual slow tempo. They ranked in the top-30 in having the slowest possession time. |
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03-22-24 | Northwestern v. Florida Atlantic -3 | Top | 77-65 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Florida Atlantic was ranked as high as No. 7 this season in The Associated Press Top 25 before slipping out. The Owls were superior to Northwestern back then and they still are much the better team especially given the Wildcats' injury situation. |
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03-21-24 | NC State v. Texas Tech -4.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
Tremendous kudos for North Carolina State to win the ACC Conference Tournament as a No. 10 seed. The Wolfpack accomplished that by winning five games in five days. Great feat, but reality catches up to North Carolina State here. The NCAA Tournament committee did the Wolfpack no favors by making them play in Pittsburgh on Thursday. |
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03-21-24 | Bulls v. Rockets OVER 219 | 117-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
The Bulls are averaging 115.7 points in their last four games. They've allowed at least 112 points in six of their last eight games. |
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03-21-24 | Oregon +1.5 v. South Carolina | 87-73 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
In Dana Altman I trust. Altman is an elite coach. He's taken Oregon to seven NCAA Tournaments. The Ducks have never lost in the first round in any of them. Altman has Oregon peaking at just the right time as the Ducks won three in row to capture the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. One of their victories was against ninth-ranked Arizona.  South Carolina is a great story going 26-7 after being picked to finish last in the 14-team Southeastern Conference preseason media poll. However, the Gamecocks have been wearing down going 5-4 in their last nine games. |
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