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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-22-22 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks OVER 47 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 10 m | Show |
Winnipeg is coming off a season-high 43-point scoring performance against BC, who gives up the fewest yards per game in the CFL. Now the Blue Bombers step way down in defensive class facing Edmonton. The Elks have the worst defensive numbers in the league, including allowing a CFL-worst 36.7 points per game. QB Zach Collaros is off to an excellent start despite the Blue Bombers breaking in many new faces on offense. Winnipeg hasn't found a bell cow running back, but Collaros has found chemistry with his old receiving target from Hamilton, Greg Ellingson, and Dalton Schoen. Those two receivers have combined for 699 receiving yards, 44 receptions and six TD's in five games. Collaros has a 5-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 68 attempts during his past two games. The Elks rank last in pass defense while also surrendering the most passing TD's. So Collaros is in line for another big performance. Edmonton should do its part to help get this total Over. Winnipeg gives up the fewest points per game. However, the Blue Bombers' defensive statistics don't match that lofty No. 1 mark as Winnipeg ranks eighth in pass defense and sixth in total defense. |
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07-22-22 | Cubs v. Phillies -125 | Top | 15-2 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
The Phillies have played their best ball since firing Joe Girardi going 27-14. The Cubs come out of All-Star break losers of nine of their last 10. Chicago has failed to break the three-run barrier in 10 of its last 11 games. Kyle Gibson tamed a weak Marlins offense in his last start. He's certainly capable of taking advantage of the struggling Cubs, who are averaging 1.6 runs in their last six games. Gibson has 0.94 WHIP in his last three starts. The Cubs are starting Justin Steeler, who is 3-6 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Short price to lay with the superior home club. |
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07-21-22 | Montreal -135 v. Ottawa | 40-33 | Win | 100 | 52 h 30 m | Show | |
Montreal (1-4) and Ottawa (0-5) are the two worst teams in the Canadian Football League. Montreal is better. The oddsmaker certainly believes that making the Alouettes a road favorite. I'm on board with that thinking. The Alouettes have only been outscored by two points on the season. They have covered 20 of their last 28 road games and are a perfect 6-0 ATS during their last six trips to Ottawa. The situation is slanted toward Montreal. The Alouettes last played this past Thursday. This will be just their third game since July 2. It's Montreal's second game under new coach Danny Maciocia. So there should be fewer mistakes and sloppiness. Ottawa is on a short week having suffered a tough two-point road loss to Hamilton this past Saturday. The Redblacks have problems at quarterback with Jeremiah Masoli out. Caleb Evans hasn't impressed with his lack of accuracy and newcomer Nick Arbuckle hasn't fully learned Ottawa's offense and remains unproven. The Alouettes may have found a quality runner in Walter Fletcher. He showed promise in his first start with Montreal, averaging 7.3 yards rushing and 9.0 yards per reception. Ottawa has struggled to stop the run and its secondary has injuries, which could mean a big game, too, from QB Trevor Harris. |
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07-21-22 | Dream v. Sparks -122 | 78-85 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
These teams have similar records. Atlanta is 12-14. LA is 11-14. The spot and situation, though, greatly favor the home Sparks. Atlanta is off its best win of the season, upsetting Las Vegas as a double-digit road 'dog this past Tuesday. That puts the Dream in a letdown spot here while they also carry a fatigue rating. This marks Atlanta's fourth game in seven days - all at different venues. LA is the far fresher team. The Sparks have been at home for their past six games. This is the finale of a seven-game homestand and only their second game in seven days. If the Sparks beat the Dream they finish their homestand with a 4-3 winning record. The Sparks haven't been able to defeat the top teams in the league. But they have taken care of business against the so-so, lower echelon teams like the Dream beating the Wings, Liberty, Mercury and Fever while losing to the Storm, Mystics and Sky during their last seven games. |
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07-20-22 | Storm v. Sky UNDER 161.5 | Top | 74-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Seattle is the top defensive team in the WNBA ranking first in 3-point defense and second in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The Storm have held their last four opponents to an average of 70.2 points. The Sky could be without double-digit scoring guard Courtney Vandersloot, who is questionable due to a concussion. She missed Chicago's previous game this past Saturday against the Wings in Dallas. The Sky have limited their past three opponents to an average of 74.6 points. They rank No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage and fourth in scoring defense. Another key factor to the Under is the early start time, which is 9 a.m. West Coast time for Seattle. The Storm has been on West Coast time for the last two weeks. The Sky hasn't played since that road win against Dallas, which was five days ago. So they could be rusty. |
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07-19-22 | Dream +12.5 v. Aces | Top | 92-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Las Vegas is back on track going 3-0 following All-Star break. The Aces' three victories all came on the road with two coming against the Liberty in revenge mode and the other occurring this past Sunday against the Sun in a major challenge. Now the Aces return home to face the lowly Dream. I see a letdown coming from the Aces. So I'll take double-digit points with Atlanta. The Aces have failed to cover in their last six home games. They are 2-4 SU during these recent home games. Las Vegas often is overpriced. The Aces have failed to cover in nine of their last 12 games overall. Atlanta has covered the past four times versus Western Conference teams. The Dream have a winning point spread road record. The Dream defeated the Mercury, 85-75, this past Sunday in Phoenix. That was a huge morale boost for the Dream and showed they have quality reserves as their leading scorer, Rhyne Howard, Nia Coffey and Monique Billings all missed that game due to injuries. I'm not worried if Coffey and Billings are out. Howard is the Dream's star and she's questionable. It's a nice bonus if she does play, but I'll still take the Dream with this many points regardless of her status. |
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07-19-22 | Liberty +8 v. Sun | 63-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Connecticut is right there with Chicago, Las Vegas, Washington and Seattle among the top five teams in the WNBA. There's a dropoff after those teams. But this is too many points for the Sun to be laying especially since they won't have Jonquel Jones. She leads Connecticut in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots. Jones tested positive for COVID-19. New York has been very tough on the road going 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS during its last seven away contests. During this span, the Liberty has posted straight-up victories as double-digit underdogs against the Aces, Sun and Mystics. The Liberty doesn't lack for talent with Sabrina Ionescu and Natasha Howard among the best players in the league. New York shouldn't lack motivation either after an embarrassing 34-point home loss to the Aces this past Thursday. While the Liberty was idle for the past four days, the Sun last played two days ago in an emotional home game against the Aces. This is Connecticut's fourth game in seven days and they are short-handed without Jones. |
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07-17-22 | Brewers v. Giants -1.5 | 5-9 | Win | 125 | 16 h 3 m | Show | |
Logan Webb is dominant at home. He has a 2.37 home ERA and a 1.80 ERA during his last three overall starts. I don't see the Brewers staying within a run of the Giants going with Jason Alexander on the mound and with their star closer, Josh Hader, going through his roughest stretch. Alexander has a 4.73 ERA. He's been fortunate to have an ERA under 5.00 considering opposing batters are hitting .314 off him. Alexander's ERA in his last three starts is 7.94. |
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07-17-22 | Lynx v. Mystics -4.5 | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Minnesota has been playing better. However, this is just a brutal spot for the Lynx. It's their fourth game in six days. Word has it, too, that the Lynx had airline trouble on their way back from Indiana after beating the Fever two days ago. The Mystics had won four of their last five until losing three days ago to the Mercury in Phoenix. The Mystics are rested and ready now. They have the top defense in the league and also the best point spread record at 16-10 ATS.Â
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07-17-22 | Orioles v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
The Orioles are averaging six runs per game during their last five games. The Rays are averaging 5.1 runs in their last seven games. There's a weather factor with the wind blowing out at 9-to-11 mph. Jordan Lyles certainly can't be trusted to hold the score down. Baltimore may not have its best relief pitcher either. Corey Kluber has been pitching well lately, but he's far removed from the dominant Cy Young Award winning pitcher he once was. So I find this total too low. Journeyman Lyles has a 4.37 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He's at his worst, too, on the road where his ERA shoots up to 5.52. Orioles closer Jorge Lopez may be unavailable after throwing two innings on Saturday. The one time the Rays saw Lyles this season, they got to him for five runs in five innings. |
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07-16-22 | Sky -4.5 v. Wings | 89-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Both teams are in action for the third time in six days. That's a heavy load in the WNBA. Chicago, though, is the best team in the league. One reason why the defending champion Sky are so good is their deep bench.  Chicago is off double-digit victories against the Dream and Sparks aided by its deep roster. The Sky are 8-1 in their last nine games.  The 18-6 Sky now draw another below .500 opponent in the Wings. The Sky won't play again for four more days. So they should be focused. Candace Parker certainly should be motivated. She was held scoreless for the first time in her 15-year WNBA career in Chicago's last game. |
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07-16-22 | Red Sox +145 v. Yankees | 1-14 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
These two teams met last Sunday with the same pitching matchup of Nick Pivetta against Jameson Taillon. It wasn't pretty. Both pitchers were battered in an 11-6 Red Sox victory. The Red Sox have beaten the Yankees in the past three meetings. The Yankees head into All-Star break weekend not playing well with a 4-6 record in their last 10 games. Pivetta is the epitome of a hot-and-cold pitcher. Taillon is in terrible form after a strong early-season performance. Tallion is 9-2, but his ERA is 4.01. His ERA during his last three starts is 8.22. So at this 'dog price, the Red Sox are worth a shot. |
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07-16-22 | Pirates v. Rockies UNDER 12 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
On the surface this total may look right in a pitching matchup of Mitch Keller versus Jose Urena. But on closer inspection, the total is too high. Keller has a 4.88 ERA. But he's taken major steps this summer to becoming a respectable starter. Keller has held seven of his last nine opponents to three earned runs or fewer. He's off his best start of the year holding the Marlins to one run in seven innings this past Monday. Urena doesn't get any marketplace respect. Yet he has a 3.00 ERA and is 2-for-2 in quality starts for the Rockies since coming up from the minors earlier this month. Urena is facing one of the weakest attacks in the majors. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in runs and is 29th in batting. The Pirates have scored four or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games. The weather and home plate umpire are pluses, too, for the Under. The wind will be blowing in at 7-to-10 mph. Charlie Ramos is slated to be the home plate umpire. This is his first full year in the majors. The Under has cashed eight of 12 times when Ramos has been behind the plate. |
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07-15-22 | A's +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
Injuries and a brutal travel schedule have left the Astros extremely vulnerable for Friday's home game against the rested A's. Oakland was idle Thursday. Houston wasn't. The Astros had to go extra innings to nip the Angels late Thursday night in Anaheim. This means the Astros didn't return to Houston until the wee hours of this morning. Because of this tough travel schedule, Astros manager Dusty Baker said he will be resting a number of his starters. So at the very least, don't expect to see veteran catcher Martin Maldonado, Jose Altuve and Yuli Gurriel in Houston's starting lineup. Remember the Astros already are without injured Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley. Altuve suffered a bruised leg on Friday so he's almost certainly out. The pitching matchup is lefty Cole Irvin versus Jose Urquidy, who is replacing original listed starter Jake Odorizzi. The key is can the lowly A's still beat the Astros on the road even if Houston fields a JV type lineup? Yes. Oakland actually has played much better on the road. The A's are 4-5 in their last nine games. They would be 8-4 in their last 12 games if given plus 1 1/2 runs. Irvin is a crafty southpaw. He doesn't miss many bats, but he's tough to score against. He has a 3.32 ERA. The Astros rank just 21st in batting average versus lefties. Urquidy has a 4.08 ERA. The A's just faced him a week ago scoring three earned runs off him. So they are familiar with Urquidy. If the Astros decide to go back to Odorizzi, they'll be going with a pitcher whose home ERA is 4.41. The A's are the worst-hitting team in the majors. But their offense has shown some spark lately averaging eight runs per game during their last three games. The Astros may hold back their closer and best reliever, Ryan Pressly, after he pitched two innings on Friday. Houston would be 4-6 in its last 10 games if laying 1 1/2 runs. |
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07-15-22 | Mariners -155 v. Rangers | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
The Mariners are 13-1 in their last 14 games. They are in a great position to go 14-1. So I'm going to ride them in a pitching matchup of Robbie Ray versus nominal Texas starter Matt Bush.  Ray is 2-0 with a 0.91 ERA in his last six starts.  Bush is a reliever. He's not going to pitch long making this a bullpen game for the Rangers. One Texas pitcher who could see action is Taylor Hearn, who has a 5.86 ERA.Â
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07-15-22 | Lynx -3 v. Fever | 87-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Minnesota is in must-win mode after losing, 92-87, at home to the Wings on Thursday. The Lynx are 2 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot. The Lynx also have double revenge motivation. They are a lot stronger now with Sylvia Fowles back in the lineup. Indiana is the worst team in the WNBA with a 5-20 record. Done for the season, the Fever are going with young players in rebuild mode. They have the worst defense in the league. |
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07-14-22 | Astros -151 v. Angels | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
The Astros lost in embarrassing fashion in their showdown game against Shohei Ohtani on Wednesday. But I see Houston bouncing back in a much more favorable pitching matchup of southpaws Framber Valdez versus Reid Detmers.  Houston has won 46 of its last 65 games. The Astros are 12-3 during their past 15 games.  The Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 games. They have lost 16 of their past 23 home contests.  Valdez has been tough on the road with a 5-2 away mark and 1.75 ERA. He has a 1.64 ERA in his last three starts. The Angels rank among the bottom six against lefthanded pitching in slugging percentage, batting average and OPS.  Detmers isn't in Valdez's class. He's not in good form either with a 5.52 ERA in his last three starts. The Astros have hit the fifth-most homers against southpaws in the league.  The Angels still could be minus Mike Trout. He left Tuesday's game due to back spasms and did not play on Wednesday. The Angels had indicated Trout may need to miss a couple of games because of the injury.Â
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07-13-22 | A's +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
I'm not going to land on the A's very much. But with Paul Blackburn getting the start and Texas not playing well, I'll get involved with Oakland on the run line at plus 1 1/2 runs. Blackburn is the A's best pitcher. He's 6-4 with a 3.36 ERA. Blackburn has been tremendous on the road where he's 5-0 with a 1.28 ERA. Oakland has played better on the road. The A's are eight games below .500 away while a staggering 21 games below .500 when home. If given 1 1/2 runs, the A's would be 8-3 in their last 11 games. The Rangers are going with Jon Gray, who is 5-4 with a 4.03 ERA. Gray is never going to live up to the one-time hype of being a No. 1 type starter. He's been decent lately, but I would take Blackburn above him especially given how poorly Texas has been playing. The Rangers are 4-8 in their last dozen games. They would be 3-9 during this span if giving up 1 1/2 runs. |
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07-13-22 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 8 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Starting pitchers Tarik Skubal of Detroit and Brady Singer of Kansas City are capable of taming tepid offenses. That should be the case here in this daytime getaway game, the final of a four-game series. The Royals are averaging 3.4 runs in their last five games. They are 26th in runs and 25th in homers. Speedy leadoff hitter Whit Merrifield is out for the Royals. The Tigers are averaging 2.6 runs during their past five games. They rank last in runs and homers. Singer is a righthander. The Under is 21-8-2 during the Tigers' last 31 away games against a righty starter. Kansas City is a pitcher's park and there will be a slight wind blowing in. Shane Livensparger is slated to be behind the plate. The Under has cashed 12 of 18 times for 67 percent when Livensparger has been the home plate umpire this season. |
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07-12-22 | Red Sox v. Rays +110 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 110 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
Chris Sale can't be expected to go deep into this game having not pitched in the majors this season because of a rib stress fracture. Sale's rehab in preparing for his season debut was just 11 1/3 innings of minor league work with Boston's rookie league team, Double-A team and Triple-A team. Rays starter Corey Kluber isn't the dominant Cy Young Award winner of years past. But he's still solid with a 3.62 ERA. The Red Sox know this first-hand. Kluber just faced Boston six days ago at Fenway Park and threw six shutout innings, giving up three hits with no walks and five strikeouts in a 7-1 victory. Kluber is 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA when pitching at Tropicana Park this season. The Red Sox entered this series in a letdown frame having just taken two in a row from the Yankees, including a big 11-6 home win in the Sunday Night ESPN Game. The Rays, on the other hand, had much to prove returning home after being swept three games by the lowly Reds in Cincinnati. |
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07-11-22 | White Sox v. Guardians +104 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 104 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
Lance Lynn has yet to show anything since coming off the injured list. He has a 5.33 ERA. He just gave up five earned runs in five innings against the Twins during his last start this past Wednesday. So I don't get him opening as a road favorite against the Guardians and Cal Quantrill. Quantrill is a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter with a 3.86 ERA. He has been better at home where he's 3-0 with a 3.24 ERA. The White Sox offense has been a disappointment this season ranking 20th in runs and 27th in homers. The White Sox entered the weekend with the highest swing rate in the American League at pitches outside the strike zone at nearly 36 percent. |
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07-11-22 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show | |
This is the first game of a Monday doubleheader and it starts early with Michael Pineda facing Brad Keller. Both pitchers will be made better by going against weak offenses. Keller proved that 11 days ago when he held the Tigers scoreless in six innings during a 3-1 home victory. The righthander allowed just five hits to the Tigers. Detroit is last in the majors in homers, 29th in runs and OPS and 27th in batting. Pineda has a respectable 3.62 ERA. He's backed by a surprising effective Detroit relief corps that went into the weekend with the third-lowest bullpen ERA. Pineda is 2-0 with a 2.30 ERA in day games. Kansas City ranks 26th in runs and 24th in homers and OPS. The Royals are likely to be missing speedy leadoff batter Whit Merrifield, who left Sunday's game with a toe injury. These two teams have a strong Under history with the low side cashing 69 percent of the time during the last 34 meetings at 25-8-1, including the last four played in Kansas City. |
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07-10-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 52 m | Show |
No more drawing rookie starting pitchers. The Yankees are going to see veteran Nick Pivetta after the Red Sox have started a rookie pitcher for four straight games.  Pivetta is having a solid season going 8-6 with a 3.68 ERA. Jameson Taillon has been solid, too, for the Yankees with a 9-2 mark and 3.63 ERA. He's backed by the second-best bullpen in the majors as Yankees relievers have the No. 2 lowest ERA in the league at 2.68.  The Yankees won't have to face All-Star 3B Rafael Devers. He's out with a sore back.  Slated home plate umpire Tripp Gibson III has an Under bias. The Under is 38-23 (62 percent) in his games behind the plate during the last three years.Â
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07-10-22 | Marlins +112 v. Mets | 2-0 | Win | 112 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
Nothing against Taijuan Walker, who has pitched extremely well for the Mets. But I'm not passing on Sandy Alcantara in an underdog role. Alcantara very well could be the best pitcher in the National League. He has a 1.82 ERA. The Marlins are 9-2 in his last 11 starts.  The Mets aren't likely to have star outfielder Starling Marte, who was injured on Saturday.Â
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07-09-22 | Winnipeg v. BC -3 | Top | 43-22 | Loss | -120 | 69 h 39 m | Show |
Both Winnipeg and British Columbia are unbeaten. But statistically and situational-wise these teams are not that close. BC is much superior. The Lions rank first in the CFL in the major categories in both offense AND defense. They have allowed just two sacks in three games. Nathan Rourke has opened the season with the highest completion percentage in any three-game span in CFL history going 88-for-105 for 83.8 percent. The Blue Bombers average fewer than 22 points. They rank second-to-last in yards and are last in pass defense. They were fortunate to nip 1-2 Toronto last week in a 23-22 victory. The Lions average the most yards in the league while giving up the fewest yards per game. They are the No. 1 passing and scoring team. Their defense is No. 1 against the pass and No. 2 against the run. Winnipeg is getting a lot of respect based on its 4-0 record and being the defending Grey Cup champions. Right now, though, BC is the best team in the league. The spot sets up well, too, for the Lions as the Blue Bombers will be making the 1,318-mile, cross-country journey. |
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07-09-22 | Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Injured earlier in the season, Brandon Woodruff is back to ace form for Milwaukee with a 1.73 ERA in his last five starts. The Pirates are 28th in runs and 29th in batting. They are averaging 2.1 runs in their last six games.  The Brewers rank 22nd in batting. They are only averaging 3.1 runs during their last six games. So Pirates starter Zach Thompson should be able to hold up his end.  The home plate umpire is slated to be Roberto Ortiz. The Under has cashed 70 percent of the time the last 30 games he's been behind the plate. |
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07-09-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -118 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Madison Bumgarner has been solid at home for Arizona with a 3.23 ERA. The Rockies aren't nearly as dangerous on the road as they are at Coors Field. Colorado is 10-25 in its last 35 away games. The Rockies have scored three runs or less in seven of their past nine road contests. They might be without their top power hitter as C.J. Cron left last night's game with a wrist injury after being hit by a pitch.  Rockies starter Kyle Freeland is having a disappointing season with a 4.43 ERA. The Diamondbacks have scored at least five runs in nine of their last 11 games.Â
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07-08-22 | Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
The talent-rich Dodgers are 53-29. Of those 53 wins, 48 have come by more than one run. So if the Dodgers are going to beat the Cubs here - and they are a strong favorite - there's a 90.5 percent chance they will win by multiple runs based on their previous games. |
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07-08-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -156 | 6-5 | Loss | -156 | 17 h 42 m | Show | |
I like Zac Gallen better than any Arizona pitcher. The Rockies are terrible on the road and the Diamondbacks have been swinging hot bats. Even nipping the Diamondbacks by one run on Thursday, the Rockies are 9-25 in their last 34 road games. This isn't anything new. Colorado was 26-54 on the road last year. At 13-26, the Rockies own the worst away mark in the majors. Gallen is very solid. He's 4-2 with a 3.40 ERA. The Rockies can hit at home, but not on the road. They've scored three runs or less in seven of their past eight away matchups. Rockies starter Chad Kuhl has a 4.39 road ERA. He's off his highest pitch count in six games. Arizona has scored five or more runs in eight of its last 10 games. |
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07-08-22 | Phillies v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
Zach Wheeler has a 2.66 ERA solidifying his place as one of the top righthanders in baseball. He gets to face a scuffling Cardinals squad that has scored a puny seven runs in their last five games. Only once in their past eight games have the Cardinals topped three runs. Adam Wainwright still is a very good home pitcher. His ERA when pitching in St. Louis is 2.25. Wainwright doesn't have to worry about facing the Phillies' most dangerous hitter with Bryce Harper out. Weather-wise, the wind is blowing in from eight-to-10 miles per hour. |
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07-07-22 | Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
The talent-rich Dodgers are 52-29. Of those 52 wins, 47 have come by more than one run. So if the Dodgers are going to beat the Cubs here - and they are a monster favorite - there's a 90 percent chance they will win by multiple runs based on their previous games. LA is 7-1 in its last eight games. The Cubs are 4-10 in their past 14 road games. The Cubs have lost six in a row to the Dodgers. Not only do the Dodgers have a huge lineup edge, but also in starting pitchers with Mark Leiter Jr. going against Cy Young Award candidate Tony Gonsolin. Leiter was out of the majors the last three years until surfacing this season. He has a 4.85 ERA and is only in Chicago's rotation because of injuries to other pitchers. Gonsolin is bidding to become the first 11-game winner this season His ERA of 1.54 is the best in the majors. |
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07-06-22 | Liberty v. Aces UNDER 170 | Top | 116-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
The Aces can't wait until All-Star break, which for them comes after this game. The Aces need to regroup going 2-4 in their last six games, including a 102-71 loss in their game this past Sunday on the road against Minnesota. Las Vegas coach Becky Hammon and her team have been talking about urgency on defense since that loss. New York is the lowest scoring team in the WNBA averaging 77.3. The Liberty have averaged 77.1 points in regulation during their last six games. The Liberty are highly reliant on the outside shooting of Sabrina Ionescu. She's been cold, though, shooting a combined 11-for-37 (29.7 percent) from the field in New York's last two games. The Liberty rank 10th in 3-point accuracy. Las Vegas is fifth in 3-point defense. Las Vegas still leads the WNBA in scoring at 89 points per game. However, unlike earlier in the season, opponents aren't getting caught unprepared by first-year Aces coach Hammon's new-look offense. They've worked on slowing down the Aces, who like to play up-tempo since they have a small lineup. Expect the Liberty to slow the pace here. The Under has cashed in 10 of the Liberty's last 13 (77 percent) games against Western Conference teams. The Aces haven't scored more than 80 points in regulation during four of their last five games. New York ranks No. 2 in the league in defensive field goal percentage.  |
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07-06-22 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +118 | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
The Giants have to be faded as long as the oddsmaker keeps making them a favorite while they are struggling. San Francisco is 3-12 in its last 15 games. The Giants have lost a season-high six in a row.  The Giants are averaging only 2.3 runs during their six-game losing skid. They face Merrill Kelly here. Kelly has won four of his last six starts. He had a career 3.21 ERA against the Giants in 10 starts.  Alex Cobb gets the start for the Giants having yet to inspire confidence with a 4.94 ERA. The Diamondbacks, unlike the Giants, are swinging hot bats scoring at least five runs in all but one of their last eight games. |
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07-05-22 | Twins v. White Sox -126 | 8-2 | Loss | -126 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
Fresh off sweeping three games from the Giants in San Francisco - all in an underdog role - the White Sox returned to Chicago and lost Monday to the Twins. The White Sox's concentration could have been impacted by a tragic Fourth of July shooting that took place during an Independence Day parade in suburban Chicago. The Twins also turned a key triple play. I like the White Sox to bounce back today. Minnesota is 4-15 (21 percent) following a victory. The White Sox are 20-8 during the second game of a series. Even with that victory, the Twins still are 3-9 during their last dozen road games against the White Sox. The pitching matchup is Chris Archer versus Michael Kopech. Archer has pitched well with a 3.08 ERA, but he's not the strikeout pitcher he once was and he doesn't go deep into games. Kopech is a rising star with a 2.78 ERA, who has been held back by arm injuries. He's healthy now. |
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07-05-22 | Cardinals +130 v. Braves | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
I guess the Braves have to be favored at home here in a pitching matchup of Cardinals rookie Andre Pallante versus Ian Anderson. But based on the current form of these two starters, St. Louis is the team that should be a hefty favorite. Pallante has been brilliant with a 2.10 ERA. His road ERA is even better at 1.31. Anderson, on the other hand, has been terrible with a 7.82 ERA in his last three starts. His home ERA this season is 6.28. The Braves are without their star closer, Kenley Jansen, too. So you would be Thick as a Brick if you backed Ian Anderson in this spot. |
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07-05-22 | Yankees -1.5 v. Pirates | 2-5 | Loss | -130 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
Coming off a rare loss followed by a day off, the Yankees should be primed to bury the Pirates. New York has the best record in baseball. Pittsburgh is 15 games below .500. The Yankees go for their 15th win in their last 21 games with former Pirate Jameson Taillon on the mound. He's been outstanding this season with a 9-1 record and 3.32 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 2.70 when pitching on the road away from hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Certainly Taillon won't lack motivation against his ex-team. Pittsburgh starter Jose Quintana has turned into a journeyman. The Pirates are his fourth team in the last three years. The Yankees have scored the second-most runs in the league. The Pirates rank 28th in runs. |
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07-04-22 | Winnipeg -4.5 v. Toronto | Top | 23-22 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
This was supposed to be a down season for two-time defending CFL champion Winnipeg. But the Blue Bombers are 3-0. Their stout defense is giving up just 13 points per game in victories against Hamilton and Ottawa twice. The Blue Bombers are disciplined, well-coached under Mike O'Shea and won't beat themselves. That should prove to be enough to win by more than a touchdown against Toronto. The Argos nipped Montreal, 20-19, in their opener failing to cover as 3-point home favorites. However, the 1-1 Argos were buried by BC, 44-3, in their last game raising a huge red flag about just how good they are. Toronto surrendered 583 yards and 35 first downs in that loss. The Argos' defense last forced a two-and-out during the opening drive of their season-opener. The Blue Bombers feature two top pass rushers in Willie Jefferson and Jackson Jeffocats. Toronto has a banged-up offensive line and a vulnerable defense. So I see Winnipeg covering for the ninth time in the last 11 meetings against the Argos. |
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07-04-22 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
Nothing against Carlos Rodon, who has pitched well this season. But the Giants aren't playing nearly well enough right now to be laying this high of a price especially on the road. The Giants, losers of 10 of their last 13 games, take on an old teammate, Madison Bumgarner. San Francisco is averaging a puny 2.6 runs in its last six games. Bumgarner has pitched his best at home, giving up two runs or less in seven of his eight home starts. If you discount a 4-0 loss to the Padres, the Diamondbacks are averaging 7.8 runs during their last five games. Certainly the Diamondbacks are capable of upsetting the Giants given San Francisco's struggles, but I'll lay a short price to have the insurance of 1 1/2 runs on the run line. Arizona would have a winning record in its last 18 games if given 1 1/2 runs. |
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07-04-22 | Cubs v. Brewers -142 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show | |
The Brewers are back playing good ball winning six of their last eight games. They have proven trustworthy in this role going 29-11 the past 40 times at home when taking on a below .500 opponent. The Cubs have lost in eight of their last 10 games in Milwaukee. The rebuilding Cubs also have dropped nine of their last 12 road contests. I give a starting pitching edge to Milwaukee in a matchup of Justin Steele (3-5, 4.39 ERA) versus Eric Lauer (6-3, 4.02 ERA). The Brewers get a huge bullpen checkmark. Milwaukee has a bullpen ERA of 3.54 compared to Chicago's bullpen ERA of 4.55. The Brewers have the three best relievers with closer Josh Hader and setup men Devin Williams and Brad Boxberger. All have ERA's of 2.05 or less. |
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07-03-22 | Cardinals v. Phillies -150 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
The Phillies have been bet up in this Sunday night ESPN matchup for good reason. Zach Wheeler is pitching at home. Wheeler has a 1.85 home ERA this season. He's been at his best, too, in night games with a 2.06 ERA in evening games. Cardinals veteran Adam Wainwright is having a solid season, but he won't be throwing to his batterymate of 17 years with Yadier Molina out due to a knee injury. The Cardinals not only lose Molina's Hall of Fame-caliber defense, but his replacements can't hit. Rookie Ivan Herrera is batting .111 and Andrew Knizner is hitting .185.Â
St. Louis has lost eight of its last 11 road games and has lost six of its past eight games in Philadelphia. |
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07-03-22 | Mystics v. Sun -5 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is a battle of the second and third-best teams in the Eastern Conference, who are in back of the defending champion Chicago Sky. Connecticut is 7-2 in its last nine games if you take away two losses the Sun suffered to the Sky, who are tied for the best record in the WNBA with Las Vegas at 15-5. The Sun have tremendous urgency here in protecting their home court. But the key is Elena Delle Donne is not going to play for Washington. She's a superstar and the Mystics' leading scorer at 15.3 points. She is being rested. Connecticut hosted Washington on May 28. Delle Donne did not play in that game either. The Sun won, 79-71. Washington is 1-3 the last four times Delle Donne has sat out. |
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07-02-22 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -133 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
The Diamondbacks are finding out what the White Sox knew: Southpaw Dallas Keuchel is washed-up.  Keuchel has an 8.31 ERA and 2.08 WHIP. He has just four more strikeouts than walks.  Keuchel isn't going to get well pitching against the Rockies at Coors Field. The Rockies have the highest home batting average in the majors. They also rank No. 1 in OPS at home and No. 2 in slugging percentage. The Rockies are at their best when playing home against below .500 teams having won 36 of the past 52 times against them for 69 percent.  Arizona stomped on Colorado in the opener of this series on Friday. I don't expect the Diamondbacks to repeat that today. The Rockies had just taken two of three from the Dodgers at home. Even with that loss, Colorado still has defeated Arizona seven of the past nine times at Coors Field.  Colorado starter Austin Gomber is overdue to come in with a big home game. The lefty went 5-1 with a 2.09 ERA in nine home starts last season for the Rockies. Arizona is 21-43 in its last 64 games when facing a southpaw starter.Â
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07-02-22 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
There were 12 runs scored in Friday's Diamondbacks-Rockies game. Expect more than a dozen runs to be scored in today's game at Coors Field. The pitching matchup is Dallas Keuchel versus Austin Gomber. Neither pitcher has been effective. Keuchel may be at the end of the line with an 8.31 ERA and 2.08 WHIP. The Rockies are the No. 1 hitting team when playing at home ranking first in batting average and OPS.  Gomber has a 6.55 ERA. Discount a 4-0 loss to the Padres and the Diamondbacks are averaging nine runs a game during their last three games. Both bullpens are overworked and can not be counted on.
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07-02-22 | Montreal v. Saskatchewan UNDER 46.5 | 20-41 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Saskatchewan gives up the second-fewest yards per game in the CFL. The Roughriders, though, are far from polished on the other side of the ball dealing with offensive line injuries and top receiver Shaq Evans out with an ankle injury.  The result has been two Unders and one Over during their three games. That lone Over occurred in the Roughriders' last game, a 37-13 loss at Montreal nine days ago. But there were many unusual things that occurred that aided greatly in that contest going Over. The Alouettes scored TD's on a kickoff return and a Pick Six. The Roughriders scored a meaningless late TD from their backup QB during garbage time. Montreal isn't that strong of an offensive club. The Alouettes averaged 23 points in their first two games. The Roughriders also get Montreal in Saskatchewan.  The Under has cashed in nine of the Roughriders' last 12 games. The Under also has cashed seven of the past 10 times in this series.Â
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07-01-22 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 120 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
If you're going to bet the Dodgers you might as well get the best price on them by taking them on the run line. LA's last 15 victories have all come by two or more runs!  I find it a bargain getting the Dodgers at a plus price on the run line in a pitching matchup of Blake Snell versus Tony Gonsolin. Snell has been one of the most disappointing pitchers while Gonsolin has been one of the best. Snell is 0-5 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in seven starts for the Padres while Gonsolin has been dominant going 9-0 with a 1.58 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Gonsolin has been mind-boggling pitching at home with a 5-0 mark, 0.81 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in six home starts this season.
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07-01-22 | Fever +13.5 v. Storm | 57-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Fresh off a huge victory against Las Vegas two days ago, the Storm are in letdown mode hosting last-place Indiana. Seattle does not have a good track record in these situations: 8-22 ATS versus below .500 opponents, 3-10 ATS following a victory and 0-5 ATS the past five times hosting the Fever. Indiana should put forth an effort after being ripped by its coach following a blowout road loss to Phoenix two days ago. The Fever is capable of pulling off upsets. They've pulled off two of them in their last six games beating the defending champion Sky and Lynx. The Fever haven't matched up well against the rejuvenated Mercury losing to them three times in their last six games. But this is a different opponent. |
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07-01-22 | Edmonton Elks v. Hamilton -7 | Top | 29-25 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
Both Edmonton and Hamilton are 0-3 on the season. But these are different types of 0-3. Rebuilding Edmonton averages 18 points a game and has the worst defense in the CFL. Hamilton's three losses have come to Calgary, Winnipeg and Saskatchewan. Those three opponents have a combined record of 8-1. Now the Tiger-Cats finally get to step down in class - way down in class. This is the Tiger-Cats' second home game. They were nipped by Calgary, 33-30 in overtime, during their first home game. Hamilton is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 home contests. Edmonton is giving rookie QB Tre Ford his first start. This is a tough road setting for Ford, who replaces Nick Arbuckle. Ford couldn't beat out Arbuckle during preseason. Ford has thrown three passes, completing one throw for eight yards. One of his passes was intercepted. The Elks are going to be without injured James Wilder Jr., their best running back. Note, too, that the Tiger-Cats have covered the last four times they've played Edmonton. |
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07-01-22 | Rangers v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
Losers of three in a row, the Mets haven't dropped four straight games all season. I don't see it happening here. Neither does the oddsmaker, who has made the Mets close to a 2-to-1 favorite to beat the Rangers. I see this as a kill spot for New York. So I'm going to knock down that heavy juice by backing the Mets on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs. Why such confidence in the Mets? New York's last two defeats occurred to the powerful Astros. Discount those two games and the Mets would be 24-10 at home. Even with those two losses, the Mets still have won 13 of their last 17 home games. New York is stepping well down in class facing the below .500 Rangers. Texas is stepping way up in class having played its last six games against the Royals and Nationals, whose combined record is 56-96. I like the pitching matchup very much, too, It's Glenn Otto versus Chris Bassitt. Otto has tailed off. He has a 5.31 ERA on the season. Otto's ERA during his last three games is even worse at 6.23. The Nationals got to him for six runs in two innings during his last start this past Sunday. The Mets rank fourth in runs. The Nationals are 24th in runs. Bassitt has been steady especially when pitching at Citi Field where he has a 3.16 home ERA. Bassitt has a 2.53 ERA in his last three starts and lifetime against the Rangers is 5-2 with a 3.07 ERA in 13 appearances, including nine starts. |
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06-30-22 | Reds v. Cubs -118 | Top | 7-15 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
Laying a short price against the Reds on the road rarely is a bad thing even when the home team is the Cubs. Cincinnati is 14-25 on the road this season. The Reds are 3-9 in their last 12 games. The Cubs are 4-3 in their last seven games. During this span they are averaging 6.2 runs a game. So I feel confident backing the Cubs here. The pitching matchup is Reds rookie Graham Ashcraft versus crafty veteran Kyle Hendricks. Ashcraft has been impressive with a 4-1 record and 3.27 ERA. He limited the Giants to two runs in eight innings during his previous start this past Friday. Prior to that, however, Ashcraft was battered for 10 earned runs in his two previous starts spanning 9 2/3 innings. During that two-game time frame, Ashcraft gave up 17 hits, two walks and two homers. Hendricks also is coming off an excellent start. He threw 7 1/3 shutout innings against the Cardinals this past Friday. Hendricks' night ERA is a respectable 3.78. |
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06-30-22 | BC v. Ottawa OVER 47 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 48 h 41 m | Show |
The spot isn't great for British Columbia traveling on a short week. But the Lions' offense has gotten off to a great start averaging 51.5 points and 526 yards per game. Both lead the CFL. Nathan Rourke has quieted any critics so far with his quarterback play for BC. The Over has cashed in seven of the Lions' last eight games going back to last season. Ottawa should do its part to push this total Over behind QB Jeremiah Masoli. The Redblacks have played two games - both against defending Grey Cup champion Winnipeg and its stout defense. The Lions' defensive numbers are inflated because they played a pair of weak offenses, Edmonton and Toronto. Those two teams rank last and second-to-last offensively. Ottawa and the veteran Masoli should produce much better numbers against the Lions than the Elks and Argonauts did. Expect the Redblacks to be fresh and have a strong offensive design since they were idle last week. |
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06-30-22 | Dream v. Liberty -4.5 | 92-81 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
The Liberty has stepped up their game going 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. New York beat Atlanta, 89-77, on the road in its last game six days ago. So the Liberty will be well rested for this rematch. They don't play again until Sunday so their focus should be there, too.  Atlanta has been playing short-handed. The Dream have lost three in a row and carry a fatigue rating having just played two days ago, dropping a 92-74 game on the road to Washington. This is the Dream's third game in five days.Â
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06-30-22 | Yankees -115 v. Astros | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
The Astros are good. The Yankees are great. How great? The Yankees have matched the best 76-game start in the last 92 years. New York is seeking its 17th win in the last 21 games here. It is rare to lay such a low price with the Yankees. I like the pitching matchup for New York with Luis Severino versus Luis Garcia. Houston also is likely to be minus shortstop Jeremy Pena and Yordan Alvarez, their leading power-hitter. Both were injured in a collision on Wednesday. Alvarez leads the Astros in homers and RBI's. Severino is 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA. That ERA gets reduced to 3.13 if you count just his last six starts. Garcia is 5-5 with a 3.68 ERA. He is more of a middle-to-bottom end rotation starter while Severino is talented enough to be a No. 1 or No. 2 starter especially if he were with a lesser team. |
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06-29-22 | Aces v. Storm OVER 164.5 | Top | 78-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This matchup features the WNBA's No. 1 scorer (Breanna Stewart), No. 2 scorer (Kelsey Plum) and No. 6 scorer (A'ja Wilson). But there's more than those excellent scorers as to why I like this total to go Over. Both rotations are aided in the production department. Las Vegas has back from injury sharpshooter Riquna Williams while the Storm just picked up veteran star Tina Charles after she left the Mercury. Las Vegas leads the WNBA in scoring. The Aces have scored at least 89 points in nine of their last 13 games. Seattle ranks No. 2 in the WNBA in 3-point accuracy. The Storm should be offensive-minded after scoring only nine points in the fourth quarter during an 85-77 home loss to the Sparks this past Saturday in their last game. The Storm have been stressing offense during the past three days since they last played. Their energy level should be high. The Over has cashed in six of the last eight meetings between the two teams. |
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06-29-22 | Astros -120 v. Mets | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Never mind that Justin Verlander is 39. Don't worry about Verlander coming off Tommy John surgery. Verlander is as dominant as ever. He proved that again this past Friday beating the powerful Yankees by giving up just one run on four hits and one walk in seven innings. Verlander is 9-3 with a 2.22 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 84-to16.  The Mets are 3-5 in their last eight games. They've lost six straight to the Astros, who are 9-3 in their last 12 games.  Mets starter Taijuan Walker also has been good this year with a 6-2 record and 3.03 ERA. His last three starts, though, have come twice against the Marlins and Angels, both of whom have below average offenses. Walker is not in Verlander's stud class and the Astros' relief staff has an ERA of nearly a run lower than the Mets' bullpen. It's rare to be able to back Verlander at this low of a price range. So I'll take it.Â
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06-28-22 | White Sox +117 v. Angels | 11-4 | Win | 117 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
The Angels are getting desperate for starting pitching as they are bringing up Chase Silseth to start against the White Sox today. Silseth was sent to Double A after going 1-2 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Silseth was even worse at home posting a 5.20 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in his two Anaheim starts. On the flip side, Johnny Cueto isn't being given enough respect. Yes, Cueto is past his prime, but he's been highly productive especially on the road where he has a 1.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in four away outings. Cueto has a tremendous track record, too, against the Angels going 4-0 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in five lifetime starts. The White Sox own a winning road record this season. |
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06-28-22 | Brewers v. Rays -108 | 5-3 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
Tropicana Field, home of the Rays, is a strange and tough place to play. It's especially difficult for National League teams since they rarely go there. It's not a fluke the Rays have won 72 percent of their last 53 interleague home games. Look for the Rays' offense to improve now that Wander Franco is back in the lineup. The Rays are starting highly promising rookie Shane Baz. He's coming off a game against the powerful Yankees six days ago where he allowed one run in 4 2/3 innings. He has a 1.93 ERA at Tropicana Field. Brandon Woodruff is set to make his first start for Milwaukee since May 27. He's been out with an ankle injury. Woodruff could be rusty and doesn't figure to go deep into the game. |
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06-28-22 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The oddsmaker opened this total too high as I'd be surprised if there were more than seven runs scored. Philadelphia is without Bryce Harper. Atlanta could be without Ronald Acuna. But it's not just the absence of those two superstars. The pitching matchup is Charlie Morton versus Zach Wheeler. Wheeler has a 2.77 ERA. He's at his best when pitching at home where his ERA shrinks to 1.49. Wheeler had a 2.38 home ERA last season. The Braves are averaging three runs in their last three games. Wheeler faced the Braves on May 23. He allowed two runs in 6 2/3 innings and struck out a season-high 10 batters. Morton should hold up his end, too, based on current form, no Harper and the Phillies being slightly below average against righthanded pitching. Morton has been dominant in his last two starts giving up two earned runs in 14 innings. He's only allowed six hits during this span with 20 strikeouts and no walks. Morton has struck out 40 in his last four starts spanning 25 innings. |
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06-27-22 | Rangers -132 v. Royals | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Kansas City has the second-worst record in the American League in front of only Oakland. One reason for this is you have to go back to April 19-21 to find the last time the Royals won a home series. I don't see the Royals getting off to a good start in the opening game against the Rangers today. It's a battle of lefty starters, Martin Perez versus Kris Bubic. That favors the Rangers more than the betting line shows. Perez is having a career season with a 5.2 record and 1.96 ERA. Perez is in stellar form allowing just one run in his last two starts spanning 13 innings. Kansas City ranks 27th in runs and homers. Texas is 15-10 versus southpaws this season, including 7-1 the past eight times facing them. The Rangers should be in line for a strong offensive performance as Bubic has a 7.41 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 34 innings this season. The Rangers have won in 10 of their last 14 visits to Kansas City. |
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06-26-22 | Dodgers -113 v. Braves | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
This series has taken on added significance with Freddie Freeman returning to Atlanta. The Braves got past the Dodgers, 5-3, on Saturday. Prior to that, though, the Dodgers had won five of six, winning those games by an average of 4.8 runs. LA has a huge edge in this matchup, not reflective of this short line with a pitching matchup of Tony Gonsolin versus rookie Spencer Strider. Gonsolin has been the Dodgers' best pitcher with a 9-0 record, 1.58 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. The Dodgers are giving up the fewest runs per game, while scoring the most runs per game. The league is starting to figure out Strider, who was clobbered for six earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings against the Giants during his last start this past Tuesday. |
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06-26-22 | Phillies v. Padres -141 | 8-5 | Loss | -141 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
In Yu we trust. Yu Darvish can run hot and cold. Right now he's great at home with a 4-1 record and 1.34 ERA at Petco Park. He's in tremendous form, too, going 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA during his last three starts.  Darvish should continue to dominate facing a strikeout-prone Phillies lineup that is now without superstar Bryce Harper, who suffered a broken thumb after being hit with a pitch last night. Harper was batting .318 with 15 homers and 48 RBI's in 64 games.  The Padres get to tee off on righty Kyle Gibson, who is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA on the road. Gibson has yielded four homers during his last three starts. San Diego is 7-2 in its last nine home games when going against a righty starter.Â
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06-26-22 | Blue Jays -140 v. Brewers | 3-10 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
Injuries to stud pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta and more recently Aaron Ashby have taken a toll on the Brewers' starting rotation not to mention a hit on their won/lost record.  Milwaukee is 9-15 in its last 24 games. The Brewers are forced to turn to Chi Chi Gonzalez. How desperate is that? Here are Gonzalez's ERA figures during his past five seasons in the big leagues - 7.36 this season, 6.46 last year, 6.86 in 2020, 5.29 in 2019 and 8.71 in 2016.  I don't see Gonzalez keeping the Brewers in this game against an elite Toronto offense that ranks fourth in batting average and fifth in homers. The Blue Jays are averaging 7.5 runs in their last six games.  Jose Berrios has largely disappointed this season. But he's a huge upgrade on Gonzalez. He can hold down a tepid Brewers attack that ranks 25th in batting average. |
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06-25-22 | Tigers v. Diamondbacks -142 | 6-3 | Loss | -142 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
Except for an occasional long ball, Zach Davies has been pitching well posting a 2.36 ERA in his last four starts. He's also gone at least six innings during each of three past four starts. Look for Davis to fare well against a weak Tigers offense that ranks last in home runs and runs. The Tigers won the first game of this series. Yet their road record is just 9-21. The Diamondbacks should do damage as they draw Alex Faedo, who is 1-4 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. |
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06-25-22 | Mystics v. Aces -8 | Top | 87-86 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
Four days. That's how long the Aces have had to stew about blowing a WNBA-record 28-point lead to the Sky in a 104-95 home loss to Chicago this past Tuesday. Elite coach Becky Hammon and her Aces, who own the best record in the WNBA at 13-3, finally get back on the court to host the struggling Mystics Saturday. I'm fully expecting the far more talented and thoroughly embarrassed Aces to bury the Mystics. Washington is 1-3 in its last four games. The Mystics are 1-4 ATS in their last five road contests. They are in action for the fourth time in seven days. This is their fifth straight different venue. There's a chance the Mystics rest their superstar player, Elena Delle Donne, like they have been doing. Delle Donne, who leads Washington in scoring at 15.3 points a game, played in the Mystics' previous game. That was an 85-71 loss to the Storm in Seattle. Fatigue might have gotten to the Mystics in that loss since they trailed by just two points in the fourth quarter. But even if Delle Donne plays, I see this as a blowout victory for the Aces. Washington only is averaging 72.2 points during its last four games. The Aces are the No. 1 scoring team in the league averaging 91.5 points. Las Vegas has covered four of the past five times hosting the Mystics. |
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06-25-22 | Edmonton Elks +8.5 v. Calgary | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 59 m | Show | |
I saw enough improvement from Edmonton last week to feel confident they will cover this road game and provincial rivalry matchup getting more than a touchdown. The Elks have been hurt by seven turnovers. They have several wideouts, though, who have displayed talent helping the Elks to the third-most receiving yards in the CFL. Kenny Lawler, for instance, enters this week with the second-most receiving yards in the league. Calgary surrenders the second-most passing yards in the CFL. The Stampeders are young in the secondary and are without their star cornerback, Tre Roberson. Calgary had to exert a lot of effort in posting a 33-30 comeback overtime victory against Hamilton last week. The Stampeders came back from a 24-3 deficit. The Stampeders' skill position players got beat up in that game, too, with Ka'Deem Carey, their best running back, knocked out in the first quarter. Backup RB Peyton Logan was injured in the second half. QB Bo Levi Mitchell is dealing with a foot injury. Carey is likely to play although Mitchell could be a game-time decision. |
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06-24-22 | Reds v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
The Giants just concluded a frustrating series against the sizzling Braves where they lost three of four, all by one run. I see the Giants taking their frustrations out on the hapless Reds, who have the worst record in the National League, are 11-23 on the road and have lost seven in a row with six of those defeats occurring by more than one run. The oddsmaker sees things this way, too. So to avoid the heavy juice, I'm banking on the Giants to win by more than one run. Alex Cobb is due to pitch much better. The Reds have below average offensive numbers despite playing in an outstanding hitter's park. Cobb is backed by a far superior bullpen. The Giants already have faced rookie pitcher Graham Ashcraft, seeing him late last month. Ashcraft pitched well against San Francisco back then. I'm not expecting a repeat. The Giants are averaging five runs per nine innings against righthanders. |
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06-24-22 | Lightning v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
It has been a great run for the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning, but their chance for a three-peat ends Friday night in Colorado. A combination of an outstanding and hungry Avalanche team and fatigue is too much for Tampa Bay to overcome. Just like the Celtics, the Lightning have nothing left in the tank this late into the playoffs after enduring a much tougher path than Colorado to reach the finals, including coming back from series deficits to defeat the Maple Leafs and Rangers. The Avalanche are 7-2 at home in the playoffs. They buried the Lightning, 7-0, in their last home game. Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper complaining about the Avalanche having six skaters on the ice when they scored the winning goal in overtime in Game 4 this past Wednesday is sort of hoisting up the white flag. That was a bitter home loss for the Lightning - and the turning point of the series. The Avalanche have proven to be the superior team. They are fresher and highly motivated. I don't see the Lightning having enough left to hang close. |
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06-23-22 | Saskatchewan v. Montreal UNDER 46.5 | 13-37 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 55 m | Show | |
Saskatchewan has one of the best defenses in the CFL. The Roughriders have held their first two opponents, Edmonton and Hamilton, to a combined 29 points. Montreal is down its starting QB, Vernon Adams. He's in COVID-19 protocol. There's not much of a dropoff from Adams to backup Trevor Harris. Adams is more dynamic, Harris less turnover prone. The Alouettes are without their top running back, injured William Stanback. Roughriders QB Cody Fajardo wasn't too sharp last week despite playing a horrible Edmonton defense. Saskatchewan is averaging only 17.2 points in its last seven road games going back to last season. Montreal lost some key defensive players from last season. But the Alouettes held the Tiger-Cats to 20 points last week. They catch a break in that the Roughriders have far less practice time having just played last Saturday also on the road at Edmonton. |
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06-23-22 | Astros v. Yankees -121 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
The Yankees are in their own tier in the American League. They are the best team in baseball with a .739 winning percentage. The Yankees are going for their 19th win in their last 22 games at home against the Astros. I see no reason not to get involved with the Yankees at this short home lay price. The Astros are good. But they aren't as strong as the Yankees. New York is first in runs scored. Houston ranks 17th. The Yankees have won 81 percent of their home games. They have won 11 of their last 16 home contests against Houston. Houston is going with Framber Valdez on the mound. I like Valdez. But I also like Yankees starter Jameson Taillon, who is having a huge season with an 8-1 record and 2.70 ERA. New York has better bullpen depth than the Astros, too. This represents a rare opportunity to back the Yankees at more than a fair price. |
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06-23-22 | Cubs v. Pirates +108 | 7-8 | Win | 108 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
The Pirates are the better team and are at home. So I'm perplexed as to why this line is inflated in the Cubs' favor. The pitching matchup pits lefties Justin Steele, who has a 4.27 ERA, against Pittsburgh's Jose Quintana, who has a 3.66 ERA and the added motivation of pitching against the team he played for from 2018-2020. The Cubs battered the Pirates, 14-5, on Wednesday. However, the Pirates won the first two games of the series by a combined 19-2. Pittsburgh is 4-3 in its last seven games. The Cubs are 3-13 in their last 16 games. The Pirates are getting a spark from recently called-up talented young players such as Oneil Cruz and Bligh Madris. |
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06-22-22 | Avalanche v. Lightning -105 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
I'm going to ride the rejuvenated two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning at home at this price after their huge confidence-building, 6-2, home win against Colorado in Game 3 of the Cup Finals.  Tampa Bay has won eight consecutive home games during these Stanley Cup playoffs. The Lightning came back from series deficits against the Maple Leafs and Rangers. They have faced stronger competition during the playoffs than Colorado - and proven themselves.  Nikita Kucherov is expected to play. The Lightning also hold a monster goalie edge with Andrei Vasilevskiy against the Avalanche's sub-par goalies Darcy Kuemper, who was pulled during Game 3 for his shoddy performance, and Pavel Francouz.Â
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06-22-22 | Dodgers -140 v. Reds | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
The Dodgers have withstood injuries to some of their top pitchers because of guys like Tyler Anderson, who has been brilliant this season. If you discount a four-run game against the White Sox, Anderson has allowed only three earned runs in his last five starts spanning 35 1/3 innings.  This game is priced lower than I expected. This is because the Reds are home and their starting pitcher, Luis Castillo, has been pitching well, too, with a 2.72 ERA in his last six starts.  There's a huge difference between these teams, though, that I don't believe is fully reflected in this line giving the Dodgers value as a mid-sized favorite. LA has dominated Cincinnati beating the Reds 13 of the last 17 times, including the past seven times.Â
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06-21-22 | Lynx +6 v. Mercury | 84-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
The season record shows the Lynx at 3-13. But Minnesota is a well-coached, spunky underdog. The Lynx usually can be counted on for a strong effort. That's certainly been the case recently. They nearly upset the Storm and Aces during their last two games. Minnesota has lost its last three games by a combined seven points. Phoenix has been a disappointment this season. The Mercury haven't won by more than five points in regulation in 12 of their last 14 games. They lack depth and have been horrible at closing games out. This is the largest Phoenix has been favored all season. One problem the Mercury have had is the on-going saga of their star big player, seven-time All-Star Brittney Griner. She's been detained in Russia since February. This has been a constant black cloud and distraction for the team. Members of the Mercury just met with State Department officials recently to try to get Griner released. Her safety remains a constant worry for her teammates. This is what veteran guard Diana Taurasi said, "We want (Griner) to come home as soon as possible; it's No. 1 on our list.'' The Lynx don't have that distraction. They are desperate for a victory having come so close recently against better competition. |
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06-21-22 | Blue Jays v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
I don't see double-digit runs being produced in a pitching matchup of righties Kevin Gausman versus Dylan Cease. Gausman is one of the better pitchers in the American League and Cease is very good, too, with a 2.91 ERA and ranking fifth in the league in strikeouts. The White Sox hit righties much worse than they do lefties. Gausman is 1-0 lifetime against the White Sox with a 2.33 ERA in five appearances. Both pitchers should get a major boost with Doug Eddings scheduled to be the home plate umpire. He's known for his generous strike zone. The Under has cashed in 58 percent of Eddings' home plate games during the last three years. |
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06-20-22 | Avalanche v. Lightning -106 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
We've been down this 0-2 playoff path before with the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning and recently, too. Tampa Bay came back from a 2-0 playoff deficit against the Rangers in their last series to reach the Stanley Cup Finals. I'm not blind, though. The Avalanche are the strongest opponent Tampa Bay has faced during its three-year Cup run. The Lightning nearly pulled out Game 1 in Colorado, losing in overtime. But the Avalanche dominated at home, especially in their 7-0 Game 2 victory over Tampa Bay this past Saturday looking faster, hungrier and more disciplined than the Lightning. It was a humbling beatdown of the Lightning that's for sure. But I'm not going to ignore, nor discount, the Lightnings' playoff pedigree, goalie edge with Andrei Vasilevskiy and heart. Tampa Bay has always been resilient and able to make the necessary adjustments. The Lightning's 18-2 playoff record following a loss is proof of that. Tampa Bay has won 40 of its last 55 home games, including going 7-1 in this season's Stanley Cup games. The Avalanche is as good as advertised. However, I don't see the Lightning getting swept. They are at home now. Their season and pride are on the line. They've come through before. It's not a leap of faith to back them in Game 3.  |
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06-20-22 | Blue Jays -124 v. White Sox | 7-8 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
The Blue Jays hold a strong pitching edge with Jose Berrios going against Lance Lynn, who only will be making his second start of the season after being on the injured list. Lynn has a 6.23 ERA on the season and a 4.21 lifetime ERA against the Blue Jays in eight starts.  Berrios is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last three starts. He is 12-5 lifetime against the White Sox with a 3.12 ERA in 21 starts.  The White Sox are traveling back home after losing the Sunday night game on the road to the Astros. The Blue Jays are off a huge Sunday victory against the Yankees. The Blue Jays have the superior offense and better starting pitcher going. So the price is ripe to back them. |
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06-20-22 | Giants +135 v. Braves | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
I'm going with plus price value in this one. Both teams are hot. The Braves are 15-2 in their last 17 games, although the two losses occurred during their recent series against the lowly Cubs. The Giants are 7-2 in their last nine games. The pitching matchup is a good one - Logan Webb versus lefty Max Fried. The Giants are 13-6 against southpaw starters. Webb is 2-0 lifetime against the Braves with a 1.35 ERA in three starts. |
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06-19-22 | Lynx +15.5 v. Aces | 95-96 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
The Lynx are 12-4-1 ATS the last 17 times against the Aces when playing in Las Vegas. This includes covering a 10-point spread against the Aces on May 19.  Minnesota nearly upset Seattle in its last game five days ago, losing by two points as an 8 1/2-point 'dog.  The Aces are the best team in the WNBA. But their bench isn't very good. So the backdoor should remain open if the Aces were to build a big lead.  If you exclude the Sparks, the Aces have only one win by more than 12 points during their last eight games. |
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06-19-22 | Lynx v. Aces UNDER 174 | 95-96 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
This is by far the highest total on a Lynx game and it doesn't make sense to me given the matchup.  Yes, the Aces are the highest scoring team in the league, averaging nearly 91 points per game. But Minnesota is the second-lowest scoring team in the WNBA at 77.3 points. The Lynx do not play fast under respected head coach Cheryl Reeve. They certainly don't figure to get into an up-tempo game on the road against the Aces.  Only once in their last six games have the Lynx had a total higher than 158. Previous to this game, the highest total on a Minnesota game was 169 1/2.  The Aces have a weak bench so scoring could be down if the Aces build up a huge lead and cut back on their starter's minutes.  |
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06-19-22 | Royals -130 v. A's | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -130 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
You know the Royals must be playing a really bad opponent with a terrible starting pitcher to be installed as road favorites in this range. Well, they are: Oakland. Dumpster fire is too kind of a description to call the A's at home. Oakland is 3-22 in its last 25 home games, including losing its last eight. The A's have lost 15 of 17 overall, which now gives them the worst record in baseball with a .333 winning percentage. Still think this price is too high to lay? I certainly don't with a pitching matchup of Brady Singer versus Jared Koenig. Singer is 3-1 with a 4.24 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 3.38 when he pitches on the road. Singer has had only one horrendous start this season. That came against the Astros, a far stronger hitting club than the A's, who rank in the bottom-two in runs, batting average and homers. Oakland has been shut out in 12 percent of its games. Koenig has made two starts spanning a total of eight innings. He's allowed 14 hits, including two homers, and four walks during this span for an 11.25 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. The Royals have shown improvement lately unlike the A's, winning five of their last nine games. |
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06-18-22 | Saskatchewan -7.5 v. Edmonton Elks | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 99 h 34 m | Show | |
This is my Game of the Week. This figured to be a rebuilding year for Edmonton. But it was shocking just how bad the Elks looked opening week in getting blasted by British Columbia, 59-15. The final score wasn't exaggerated. The Elks looked that bad on both sides of the ball. Edmonton didn't win one home game last season. Don't look for the Elks to end that streak here. Saskatchewan rolled past Hamilton, 30-13, in its opener last week. The Roughriders forced five turnovers and had eight sacks. This wasn't a fluke as the Roughriders have one of the top defenses in the CFL. I don't see Edmonton putting much - if any type of dent - into the Roughriders' defense. Saskatchewan QB Cody Fajardo should be in line for a big game against an Edmonton defense that couldn't tackle anyone last week. Those problems aren't going away so soon for Edmonton. |
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06-18-22 | Cardinals +108 v. Red Sox | 11-2 | Win | 108 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm attracted to getting the better team at a plus price especially when the underdog holds a pitching edge. That's the case in this Cardinals-Red Sox game. Dakota Hudson goes against Kutter Crawford. Hudson doesn't excite anyone because he's not a strikeout pitcher. But Hudson is solid and he's backed by a strong fielding Cardinals team. Hudson has 2.28 ERA in night games this season. He hasn't permitted a home run during his last six starts. Crawford has a 5.74 ERA. The youngster is coming off a career-high 83 pitches in his last start. Crawford hadn't thrown more than 50 pitches in his big league career. |
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06-18-22 | Calgary +1.5 v. Hamilton | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 96 h 35 m | Show | |
Now that Bo Levi Mitchell is OK, I'm confident in taking the Stampeders. Calgary was the No. 3 scoring team in the CFL last year. They have a strong wide receiving corps and the top scoring running back in the league with Ka'Deem Carey. Linebacker Cameron Judge was brought in to strengthen the defense. The Stampeders opened the season with a 30-27 win against Montreal. That game showed the Stampeders don't need Reggie Begelton, their top wide receiver, to have a big game. Begelton was quiet, but Richard Sindani had seven catches for 101 yards. Hamilton didn't look good in its opener, losing, 30-13, to Saskatchewan. The Tiger-Cats gave up eight sacks, had no sacks and only rushed for 26 yards. QB Dane Evans was ineffective and his receivers weren't getting separation. Calgary is 23-9 ATS (72 percent) the last 32 times as a road 'dog. |
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06-17-22 | White Sox +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 3-13 | Loss | -135 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
The Astros return home after three games on the road against the Rangers, fat and happy with a nine-game lead in the AL Western Division.  The White Sox have more of a sense of urgency in a dogfight with the Twins and Guardians in the AL Central Division. The White Sox got well at the expense of the Tigers sweeping three games from them.  Chicago has been extremely tough on left-handers the past few years and draw southpaw Framber Valdez. He is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA in five home starts.  The White Sox rank either first or second against lefty pitching in batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS.  Lucas Giolito gets the start for Chicago. He's 4-2 with a 3.88 ERA. The strikeouts have been there for Giolito, who has fanned 70 in 53 1/3 innings. He's been excellent at Minute Maid Park with a 1.57 ERA in three starts there against Houston.  The Astros actually are a below average scoring team at home, producing 3.8 runs a game. That ranks 23rd.  Houston would be 7-12 in its last 19 games if minus 1 1/2 runs.Â
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06-17-22 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa +3 | 19-12 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 2 m | Show | |
There were plenty of concerns entering this season about two-time defending CFL champion Winnipeg. Those concerns were well justified after the Blue Bombers escaped with a 19-17 home win against Ottawa this past Friday. The two teams meet again this Friday in Ottawa. The Redblacks look much improved from last season. They outplayed Winnipeg putting up 142 more yards than the Blue Bombers. The Blue Bombers aren't nearly as dynamic at receiver and running back like they were last season. They also are missing a key cog in their secondary with All-Star safety Braxton Alexander out with a knee injury. Redblacks QB Jeremiah Masoli threw for 380 yards against the Bombers and their struggling secondary. |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 209.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
Two straight Under games have the oddsmaker setting the lowest total of this NBA championship series. The Warriors have played 21 playoff games this season. This is their lowest total. Golden State has reached triple digit scoring in 20 of its 21 postseason games.  The Warriors made just nine of 40 3-point shots (22 percent) and had only 15 free throw attempts in Game 5. Stephen Curry had an off-shooting night going 0-for-9 from beyond the arc, which ended his 132-game playoff string of hitting at least one 3-pointer. Yet the Warriors still came up with 104 points.  While I don't expect Curry to reach his God-like status of Game 4 when he scored 43 points, he should shoot much better than he did in Game 5. Curry finally got some scoring help in that Game 5 from Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole. These three are all accomplished scorers in their own right. The Celtics tipped their defensive hand in that last game by switching up their coverage on Curry out of Golden State's pick-and-rolls. The Warriors will be more prepared for that now in this game. Boston can't contain all of Golden State's four big scorers.  It takes two to make an Over work. Prior to the last two games, Boston had reached triple digits in 14 of its last 16 games. Yes, Golden State is a strong defensive team and did play an excellent defensive game in Game 5. But some of the Celtics' offensive inefficiency was bad decision-making and a fatigue factor that seemed to especially hit their two best scorers, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Celtics looked like a tired team.  That should not be the case again here. The Celtics have had three days to rest and prepare. They should have their adrenaline at full peak playing at home and in must-win mode. Not only is Boston an above average scoring team, but the Celtics were the second-best free throw shooting team in the NBA at 81.6 percent. The Celtics know their offense must be better that they can not win this series solely on defense. So there will be much focus on producing points. |
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06-16-22 | Brewers v. Mets OVER 8 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
The Brewers broke out with 10 runs against the Mets on Wednesday. Look for Milwaukee to continue to swing hot bats. The Brewers draw a struggling Tylor Megill plus favorable hitting weather conditions with the wind blowing out to left at 16 mph.  Megill is looking to regain his rhythm after being out nearly a month due to a biceps injury on his pitching arm. He has an 11.71 ERA and 2.10 WHIP during his last three starts giving up 13 earned runs and 21 base runners in just 10 innings during this span. Megill has a 5.00 ERA in two career starts versus the Brewers.  The Mets average 5.2 runs at home. That would lead the league in scoring. The Mets are stepping way down in class going from Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes on Wednesday to a struggling Aaron Ashby, who is 0-2 with an 8.43 ERA in his last two starts. Ashby has pitched worse on the road with a 4.84 ERA and 1.69 WHIP.  The Over has cashed eight of the last 10 times the Mets have been home.Â
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06-16-22 | Mystics v. Liberty +4.5 | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Sparked by star guard Sabrina Ionescu, who finally has managed to stay healthy, the Liberty has won four of their last six games while going 5-1 ATS. Ionescu has sparked this with her hot shooting, scoring 23 or more points in five of her last six games. The Liberty upset the Mystics, 74-70, on the road 13 days ago when Washington had its best player, Elena Delle Donne, in the lineup. Delle Donne is going to be rested in this game.  The Mystics have covered just once in their last five games. They are dealing with a fatigue factor, too, playing for the fifth time in nine days. Washington also has a look-ahead game hosting the Sun next in a much bigger matchup.Â
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06-15-22 | Guardians v. Rockies +100 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
The Rockies are a strange team. They are bad on the road, but tough at home especially against lefthanded pitching. The Guardians are weak versus southpaw pitchers. Colorado has these edges going and the price is right to back them in a pitching matchup of lefties Konnor Pilkington versus Austin Gomber. Pilkington has a 3.57 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. His last three outings have occurred against three weak-hitting teams - Royals, A's and Tigers. The Rockies hit .282 against lefties. That's the second-highest mark in the majors. Pilkington draws them at Coors Field, the premier hitting park in baseball.  Gomber has proven he can pitch effectively at Coors with a 3.50 lifetime ERA there in 15 starts and an impressive 1.17 WHIP.  The Guardians are 23rd in batting against lefties. They also rank second-to-the-bottom in slugging percentage against southpaws.Â
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06-15-22 | Lightning +145 v. Avalanche | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 47 h 35 m | Show |
Tampa Bay is a mid-sized road 'dog. But there are a number of factors that point to the Lightning grabbing this Game 1. Here are three of them: Andrei Vasilevskiy. He's the hottest and best goalie in the playoffs. Vasilevskiy has allowed one or fewer goals in seven of his last 10 games. His GAA in the playoffs is 2.27. The Avalanche can't come close to matching that in net. Quality of competition and championship experience. Both strongly favor Tampa Bay. The Lightning went against much tougher competition than Colorado in taking out the Maple Leafs, Panthers and Rangers to reach this point. Tampa Bay knows how and when to peak, having won the Stanley Cup the past two years. The Lightning are in peak form now. Rustiness. The Lightning will have not played in four days when this game goes on Wednesday. But that's nothing compared to Colorado. The Avalanche last played on June 6 so they will have been idle for nine days! |
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06-15-22 | Brewers -117 v. Mets | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show | |
The Brewers haven't lost a season series to the Mets in six years. That streak is in jeopardy after Milwaukee lost to New York in Tuesday's opener.  But now the Brewers have their stopper going today. And the price is low enough to back reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes, who has a 2.48 ERA with a 92-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  The Mets are going with fill-in starter, David Peterson. He doesn't figure to go deep into the game. The Brewers hold a bullpen edge, too, with setup man Devin Williams and closer Josh Hader.Â
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06-14-22 | Brewers +142 v. Mets | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
I don't feel the Brewers should be underdogs to the Mets here. I see no starting pitching edge to the Mets with Andrian Houser facing Chris Bassitt. The Brewers hold a big advantage on the mound in the later innings with setup man Devin Williams and ace closer Josh Hader.  This is the Mets' first home game since a 10-game West Coast trip that concluded this past Sunday. So the spot isn't ideal for the Mets. Houser is one of the better bottom-of-the-rotation type starters. He has a 0.00 ERA against the Mets lifetime in 3 1/3 innings. Houser's ERA in night games this season is 2.08.  Bassitt broke into the big leagues eight years ago. He had spent his entire time in the American League until this season. National League teams have figured him out as Bassitt has allowed 22 earned runs in his last five starts spanning 26 innings. During this 26-inning span, Bassitt has given up 31 hits and 11 walks. These starts all came against NL teams. The Brewers are 5-1 the past six times they've been road 'dogs. They also have defeated the Mets in 20 of the past 28 games. |
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06-14-22 | Mercury v. Mystics OVER 165 | 65-83 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Phoenix has a lot of star power. The Mercury have been shooting better, too, averaging 86 points in regulation during their last four games. The Mercury, though, have a bottom-three defense.  The teams just met two days ago and Phoenix won, 99-90, in overtime. The Mystics, however, didn't have their leading scorer and best player, Elena Delle Donne. Still, they scored 85 points in regulation without her. Delle Donne is expected to play today.  Here's an interesting trend that points to the strong possibility of an Over: The Mercury have gone Over in 15 of the last 18 instances when playing an above .500 foe while the Mystics have gone Over 14 of the last 17 times when going against a sub .500 opponent.
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06-13-22 | Padres -125 v. Cubs | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show | |
The Padres own the second-best road record in baseball at 20-11. They get the good timing to take on the reeling, rebuilding Cubs, who have lost six in a row. The Cubs are a season-worst 13 games under .500.  The Cubs enter this matchup with their confidence down and their bullpen battered after giving up 28 runs, including 11 homers, in getting swept three games by the Yankees. San Diego owns a big starting pitching matchup edge, too, with Yu Darvish against Justin Steele, who is 1-5 with a 4.79 ERA.  Darvish isn't the power pitcher of past seasons, but he's still very effective with eight of 11 quality starts. San Diego is 7-2 in his last nine starts.Â
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06-13-22 | Celtics +4 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
Through four games of this NBA championship series we have learned several things. The Zig Zag has been in full effect with each team alternating wins and losses and the Celtics are the better team when each team plays well. The key question is will the Celtics play well in this Game 5? There's strong evidence they will. Boston has gone 8-3 in road playoff games compared to being 6-5 at home. The Celtics also are 13-1 SU and ATS following a loss. They are 7-0 in the postseason after losing their previous game. This includes winning their final road game against the Bucks and Heat during their two previous series. The Celtics just seem to play smarter and with more urgency in these crucial road spots. Stephen Curry had a game for the ages in Game 4 scoring 43 points in a 107-97 Golden State win this past Friday. Golden State scored more than 30 percent of its points in that game off turnovers and second chance points. I don't see the Celtics making so many silly mistakes in Game 5. Doubtful, too, that Curry can produce another epic performance to match his Game 4 heroics. Curry has been carrying the Warriors. Jayson Tatum and Boston's main backcourt rotation of Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown and Derrick White are all capable of playing much better than they did in Game 4 when the four combined to shoot just 28-of-72 (39 percent) from the field. |
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06-13-22 | White Sox -115 v. Tigers | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
Lance Lynn gets to make his season debut against the worst offense in the majors - the Tigers. Detroit ranks last in runs and homers. The Tigers have scored just seven runs in their last four games.  All-Star closer Liam Hendriks will also be available for the White Sox after being out on Sunday.  The White Sox need a break from home where their manager, Tony LaRussa, is under heavy fire. They should get there at Detroit facing the 24-35 Tigers and Rony Garcia, who has a 6.43 ERA in his three starts.  Garcia has a lifetime 5.52 ERA at Comerica Park and a 9.82 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 7 1/3 career innings against the White Sox.Â
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06-12-22 | Dodgers -122 v. Giants | 0-2 | Loss | -122 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
Look for Julio Urias to come in with a big game to keep the Giants from sweeping the Dodgers. Urias has a 2.78 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has a 2.41 lifetime ERA against the Giants in 21 games, including 15 starts. Urias rates a stronger edge on Giants starter Carlos Rodon than the betting line indicates. Rodon started hot, but has tailed off. He has a 3.77 ERA in his last three starts in which he's given up 17 hits and six walks during this span. The Dodgers lead the majors in runs averaging 5.2 per game. Rodon is 0-2 lifetime against the Dodgers with a 4.76 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. |
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06-12-22 | Orioles v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
Both teams are swinging hot bats and going against bad pitchers here. The temperature sets up well, too, for a high scoring game with the thermometer expected to reach into the 90's. The Orioles have scored 5 or more runs in six of their last nine games. Kansas City is averaging 6.7 runs in its last four games. Dean Kremer starts for Baltimore. He has a 6.23 ERA. That ERA is actually below his career mark of 7.84. He has a 1.80 WHIP. Why is he in a big league rotation? Good question. The Royals are starting Brad Keller, who is 1-7 with a 4.19 ERA. That ERA balloons to 6.31 if you go by his last six starts. Both bullpens are well below average. |
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06-11-22 | Edmonton Elks v. BC -185 | 15-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
Both teams had losing records last season. But Edmonton is worse. The Elks went 3-11 and are in rebuild mode with a new coach, Chris Jones. I like Jones. He's a strong defensive coach. But it's going to take time for the Elks to improve. That was apparent in preseason when they looked terrible against Calgary in a 30-point loss. QB Nick Arbuckle is a huge question mark for Edmonton. He has decent wideouts, but is playing behind a revamped offensive line that figures to struggle. Jones should upgrade a defense that permitted more than 30 points last season, but that is going to take time especially with the Elks having to learn Jones' complicated various schemes. BC QB Nathan Rourke looked good in his last preseason showing. Unlike the Elks, the Lions have nearly their entire offensive line returning. They also have good receiving targets for Rourke. The Lions also get a strong check mark in the secondary. I do believe the Lions will win. I'm not as comfortable laying more than a field goal with them, however. So I'm going to lay the high juice backing them on the money line. |
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06-11-22 | Aces v. Sparks +7 | 89-72 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
The Aces may be the best team in the WNBA. But this spot sets up for the Sparks.  Los Angeles is an underachieving 5-7 this season. I put a large part of that blame on the inept coaching of Derek Fisher and inconsistent play of four-time All-Star LIz Cambage. The Sparks finally had enough of Fisher. He was fired this past Tuesday. Assistant Fred Williams is the Sparks' interim coach now. He formerly coached at Utah, Atlanta and Dallas where Cambage played under him four years ago and had her best season.  The Sparks should be extremely motivated in Williams' first game as their head coach. This is especially so for Cambage, who is going against her former Las Vegas teammates. If this isn't enough, the Sparks also have revenge for a bad, 104-76, road loss to Las Vegas on May 23.  The Sparks have covered 13 of the last 18 times as a home 'dog. They are 5-2 ATS the last seven times they've hosted Las Vegas. The Aces haven't played in six days. That's too much time off. So there could be a rust factor to their game. |
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06-11-22 | Marlins v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
The Astros had a frustrating Friday losing, 7-4, to the Marlins at home. Houston stranded 14 runners in scoring position in that defeat.  I'm looking for the Astros to get their revenge and redeem themselves in today's game with a pitching matchup of lefties Braxton Garrett versus Framber Valdez. Garrett has pitched all of 3 1/3 innings this season. He has a 10.80 ERA. This could very well turn into a bullpen game for the Marlins - and it won't be featuring their best relievers. Miam's bullpen had to go 4 2/3 innings to get Friday's win.  The Astros are 14-5 at home and 14-5 when facing lefty starters.  Valdez is in excellent form going 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last three starts.Â
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