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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-17-24 | Marquette v. Connecticut -6 | 53-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
I don't see top-ranked Connecticut losing to Marquette at home. The Huskies have won 13 in a row and haven't forgotten how Marquette knocked them out of the Big East Conference Tournament last season. |
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02-16-24 | Brown v. Princeton -12.5 | Top | 63-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
Princeton has the best overall record of any team in the Ivy League at 17-3. Brown has one of the worst records at 6-16 with a 3-9 road mark. |
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02-16-24 | Siena v. St. Peter's -9 | 53-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
St. Peter's is an 11-11 average team that is in circle-the-wagons mode with a four-game losing streak following a 64-62 home loss to Fairfield, the second-best team in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. The Peacocks did cover that game, though, as 3 1/2-point 'dogs. |
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02-16-24 | Jacksonville v. Queens NC -1.5 | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
Queens is 9-3 at home. Jacksonville is 2-12 in true road games. |
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02-15-24 | Warriors -125 v. Jazz | Top | 140-137 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
I don't find it too much to ask the Warriors to beat the reeling Jazz in Utah for the second time in four days. Golden State hammered Utah, 129-107, this past Monday. |
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02-15-24 | NJIT v. Albany OVER 152 | 58-83 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Albany is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation ranking 334th. The Great Danes, though, average 78 points and play high-scoring games at home. All but one of their seven home contests have gone Over the total.  The combined total of Albany's last five home games have been 216 points, 187, 173, 170 and 172.  New Jersey Tech is a below average defensive team that has problems guarding the 3-point shot.Â
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02-15-24 | Northwestern v. Rutgers -3.5 | Top | 60-63 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
Big Ten Conference basketball is all about defense and protecting your home floor. Both of these key factors are in play for Rutgers in this matchup. |
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02-14-24 | Clippers +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
No need to overthink. The Clippers are 35-17, one of the three best teams in the Western Conference along with the Timberwolves and Thunder. The Clippers' goal is to finish with the best record in the NBA. That's a lofty goal, but attainable for a team this good.
Golden State is 26-25. The Warriors are off an emotional road victory against the Jazz this past Monday. They play at Utah again on Thursday to close out the first half of their season. It's a game that was rescheduled following the untimely death of Warriors assistant coach Dejan Milojevic from a heart attack. So returning home for this one game against the Clippers sandwiched in between trips to Utah is an usual and tough spot for the Warriors. Their concentration level may be hindered. There's also a physical fatigue to go with the mental stress as this marks the Warriors' fifth game in eight days. Unlike the Warriors, the Clippers won't play again until after the All-Star break. Also unlike the Warriors, the Clippers are off a huge, disappointing loss. They were embarrassed at home by the Timberwolves, 121-100, this past Monday. That defeat dropped the Clippers 1 1/2 games behind the Timberwolves for best record in the Western Conference. Even with that loss to Minnesota, the Clippers still are 10-3 in their past 13 games. They won't lack motivation for this matchup and should be fully focused and engaged. The Clippers have both a top-10 offense and defense. They rank first in 3-point field goal percentage. The Warriors are below average defensively ranking 19th. |
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02-14-24 | Wizards v. Pelicans OVER 236 | 126-133 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
I'm going to use the Zig-Zag method on this total. Both the Wizards and Pelicans are off strong defensive performances where their offenses were held in check. |
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02-14-24 | Panthers v. Penguins +118 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Florida is coming on again, playing well. But I'm going to take a plus price to back the Penguins at home in a very important game for them.  The Penguins are getting to a crucial stage following consecutive one-goal road losses to the Wild and Jets. They need this game - and they've had three full days to get ready.  Pittsburgh is 9-2-3 in its last 14 home games. I trust the Penguins' resolve - at least for now.  Florida doesn't figure to be as desperate as Pittsburgh after shutting out the Avalanche, 4-0, in its last game.Â
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02-14-24 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Clemson | 60-77 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Clemson returns home after posting impressive road victories against North Carolina and Syracuse. But the Tigers haven't played well at home and have had matchup problems against Miami.Â
Clemson is 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. One of those losses was to Georgia Tech as an 11 1/2-point favorite. The Tigers only defeated Louisville by six at home as a 16 1/2-point favorite. The Tigers are playing their first home game in 11 days. Miami is 1-3 in its last four games, but nearly beat North Carolina at home this past Saturday losing, 75-72. The Hurricanes have defeated Clemson in the last four meetings, including 95-82 on Jan. 3. |
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02-13-24 | Wolves v. Blazers +8.5 | Top | 121-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is enough line value for me to take the Trail Blazers given the probable return of Anfernee Simons and the favorable spot Portland is in. |
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02-13-24 | Duquesne v. Dayton -8.5 | Top | 59-75 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
You have to go back 12 years to find the last time Duquesne won at Dayton. I don't see the Dukes ending their long road losing streak here against the Flyers. |
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02-13-24 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia -6.5 | 74-63 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh upset Virginia when these teams last met last season. The Cavaliers won't let it happen again, especially at home where they are 13-0. Virginia, in fact, has the longest home winning streak in NCAA Division I with 23 straight victories. Pittsburgh is fat and happy riding a three-game win streak. Two of those wins were in a favorite's role against Notre Dame and Wake Forest. The Panthers' 3-point defense is showing signs of regression. That could prove crucial as the Cavaliers' strengths are their third-ranked defense and 15th-ranked 3-point shooting percentage. During the past four weeks, the Cavaliers are the fifth-hottest shooting 3-point team. |
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02-12-24 | Bulls +4 v. Hawks | Top | 136-126 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
This is an important game for playoff seeding in the East. The Bulls rank ninth while the Hawks are 10th, one game behind Chicago. The Bulls are the superior defensive team and have a winning point spread mark. They are 7-4 ATS in their past 11 games. |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs OVER 47.5 | Top | 22-25 | Loss | -109 | 250 h 54 m | Show |
Given all the skill position talent, outstanding offensive coaching and this game being played indoors, I'm going Over this total. |
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02-11-24 | Penn State +8.5 v. Northwestern | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
Northwestern is laying too many points here against a hot Penn State team that has won and covered its last three games, beating Rutgers and Indiana on the road and Iowa at home. The Nittany Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. |
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02-10-24 | Oilers v. Kings UNDER 6.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
The Oilers beat the Ducks, 5-3, on Friday. The Kings last played on Jan. 31 - 10 days ago. So what we have here is a fatigue vs a huge rust situation. It's unique and sets up an Under given the high total for this game. It's easy to think of goals with the Oilers since they have the magnificent Connor McDavid. But Edmonton has had an unbelievable long run of excellent defense. The Oilers have given up fewer than three goals in 14 of their last 16 games. Calvin Pickard was in net for the Oilers against the Ducks on Friday night. So a fresh Stuart Skinner will get the start in goal today. He's been brilliant having not allowed more than two goals during his last 12 games. Skinner surrendered fewer than two goals in half of those games. Edmonton will be playing for the third time in five days and second in two nights. So the Oilers carry a fatigue rating. That usually means an increased emphasis on defense and slower pace. The Kings entered the weekend ranked sixth defensively with the top penalty kill unit in the NHL. This also is the Kings' first game under interim head coach Jim Hiller. He replaced the fired Todd McLellan. That should ensure a huge defensive effort from the Kings. |
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02-10-24 | Rockets +5 v. Hawks | 113-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Both teams are playing without rest. But here's what you have to know. The Hawks have the worst point spread record in the NBA at 16-36 (31 percent). They are 5-16 ATS when favored by more than 1 1/2 points.  The Hawks just beat a reeling 76ers squad that is trying to learn life without Joel Embiid. Atlanta will be missing center Clint Capela. Onyeka Okongwu has played well in Capela's place, but logged 34 minutes against the 76ers last night.  Houston is 0-3 in its current four-game road swing that ends here. The Rockets have come close in their last two games losing to the Pacers by three points this past Tuesday and by three points to the Raptors last night cutting a 23-point deficit to one point with 23 seconds left.  The Rockets nearly won despite their two leading scorers, Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green, shooting a combined 6-for-18 (25 percent) from the floor. Sengun shoots 54.1 percent from the field.Â
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02-10-24 | Providence v. Butler -3.5 | 72-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Providence defeated Butler, 85-75, in overtime on Dec. 23. Much has changed since then. Butler is the better team. |
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02-10-24 | Vanderbilt v. South Carolina -11 | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Before the season, the SEC media picked Vanderbilt to finish 11th in the conference and South Carolina to place last. Vanderbilt has held true to that prediction with a 1-8 SEC mark. |
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02-10-24 | Creighton v. Xavier +1.5 | 78-71 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Xavier is playing well and in revenge mode for an 85-78 road loss to Creighton on Jan. 23. |
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02-09-24 | Pelicans -115 v. Lakers | Top | 122-139 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The Pelicans are playing well, riding a four-game win streak. They rested in Los Angeles on Thursday after upsetting the Clippers on Wednesday. The Lakers, meanwhile, played hard but not smart in losing to the Nuggets, 114-106, on Thursday night. |
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02-09-24 | Hornets +14.5 v. Bucks | 84-120 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
As bad as the Hornets are, the Bucks are in no position to lay this many points to them. Milwaukee is 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in its last six games. The Bucks carry a high fatigue rating, have key injuries and Doc Rivers has been a near-disaster so far as the Bucks' coach. |
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02-09-24 | Dayton -1.5 v. VCU | Top | 47-49 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
Dayton is 18th-ranked in the country, leads the Atlantic 10 Conference and has won 16 of its last 17 games. But this matchup against VCU holds special meaning for the Flyers. |
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02-08-24 | Nuggets v. Lakers +3.5 | Top | 114-106 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The Lakers have picked up their pace winning eight of their last 12 games. This includes three straight victories to close out a six-game road trip. |
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02-08-24 | Pistons v. Blazers -5.5 | 128-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
The Pistons are 3-20 on the road this season. Their latest road victory came last night in a 133-120 upset of the Kings. The Pistons achieved this unlikely victory without injured Cade Cunningham and Bojan Bogdanovic leaving them with only nine players. |
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02-08-24 | Washington State v. Oregon State +9 | 64-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Forget Oregon State being just 3-8 in the Pac-12 Conference and 11-11 overall. The Beavers are much stronger when playing at home. They are 11-2 at Gill Coliseum. One of the victories was an 83-80 win against then ninth-ranked Arizona on Jan. 25. The Beavers were 18 1/2-point 'dogs in that game. |
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02-08-24 | Canucks v. Bruins -129 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
No disrespect to the Canucks, who have been playing great hockey. But I want the Bruins going for me after their coach, Jim Montgomery, was highly critical of his team following Boston's 4-1 loss to the Flames coming off break. |
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02-07-24 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
The Pelicans are in prime position to ambush the Clippers. |
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02-07-24 | Spurs +8 v. Heat | 104-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Miami hasn't gotten going this season, losing eight of its last 11 games. But the Heat did win a satisfying game beating in-state rival Orlando, 121-95, last night. |
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02-07-24 | Furman -2.5 v. Mercer | 69-78 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
Furman is in better form than Mercer and has too much offense for the Bears to stay close. |
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02-06-24 | St. Mary's v. Pacific +21.5 | 84-43 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
Saint Mary's probably could name its score. The Gaels did that when these two teams met on Jan. 25. The Gaels embarrassed Pacific, 76-28. |
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02-06-24 | Bucks +4 v. Suns | 106-114 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
Milwaukee is concluding its five-game road trip here. The Bucks are 1-3 on their road swing. This is a good time to buy low on the Bucks coming off a 123-108 Sunday loss to the Jazz. |
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02-06-24 | Avalanche -109 v. Devils | 3-5 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
The Avalanche are the No. 1 scoring team in the NHL. They were held to just one goal by the Rangers last night coming off break. Colorado got the rust off with that game. The Devils, though, haven't played in 10 days. They ranked 27th defensively. New Jersey also has a losing home record. |
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02-06-24 | Oklahoma State v. Houston -20 | Top | 63-79 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
I want Houston going for me at home after it was smashed, 78-65, by Kansas on the road this past Saturday. That was the Cougars' worst regular-season defeat in two years. |
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02-05-24 | Kansas v. Kansas State +4.5 | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Fresh off a 78-65 home victory against fourth-ranked Houston, Kansas is looking good. But now the Jayhawks find themselves in a difficult scheduling spot. They have to travel to Kansas State for this in-state, Big 12 Conference rivalry matchup. |
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02-05-24 | Raptors +11.5 v. Pelicans | 100-138 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Toronto is 2-11 in its last 13 games, 1-7 in its last eight games and playing its fifth straight road game. |
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02-05-24 | Warriors v. Nets UNDER 237.5 | Top | 109-98 | Win | 100 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
Both the Warriors and Nets are coming off high-scoring games. The Warriors lost 141-134 in overtime to the Hawks this past Saturday. Brooklyn rolled past the 76ers, 136-121, also this past Saturday. |
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02-04-24 | Bucks v. Jazz +1.5 | Top | 108-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
At first glance this opening line might look strange with the 33-16 Bucks around a pick'em against the 24-26 Jazz. But the spot sets up extremely well for Utah. So I'm on the Jazz. The Bucks came back to beat Dallas on the road Saturday night. Milwaukee trailed by 25 points at one stage. The Bucks' three best players all logged heavy minutes in the victory. Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton each played more than 38 minutes. Giannis Antetokounmpo logged more than 40 minutes. It wouldn't be shocking if any of those three were rested today. I'm getting down now on the Jazz because the line would change if Antetokounmpo or Lillard sat out. Note, too, the Bucks are going into Utah's high altitude.  Milwaukee also is in transition with new coach Doc Rivers. Beating Dallas was the Bucks' first win under Rivers this season.  The Jazz are 15-7 at home - and rested. They last played this past Thursday. The Jazz lost to the 76ers, 127-124, in their last game. Philadelphia didn't have injured Joel Embiid. However, the Jazz had just returned from a six-game road trip and been idle for only one day before hosting the 76ers. Now they are rested and ready to go with a strong home court.Â
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02-04-24 | Magic v. Pistons +7 | 111-99 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
I know it's difficult to get behind the Pistons. But they are in an excellent situational spot here. |
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02-03-24 | St. Mary's +4.5 v. Gonzaga | 64-62 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm not convinced Gonzaga is better than Saint Mary's so I'm taking these many points. The Bulldogs have fewer wins than Saint Mary's and have battled inconsistency. Saint Mary's is in top form winning 14 of its last 15 games, including nine in a row. |
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02-03-24 | Tennessee v. Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
This is Kentucky's game to win and I see the Wildcats doing just that. Getting any points with the Wildcats is just a bonus. |
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02-03-24 | Weber State +2 v. Northern Colorado | 82-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a power ratings play. These teams have similar records, but I have Weber State as the superior team. So I will back the underdog. Weber State ranks 65th in the nation defensively holding foes to 65.2 points per game. That's remarkable for a Big Sky Conference team. Northern Colorado has had some high-scoring games in its last few games, but the Bears have played weak competition during this span. They rank 326th defensively allowing 78.2 points per game. |
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02-03-24 | Houston v. Kansas +1.5 | 65-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Maybe it's a sucker's play. But I'm not going to turn down Kansas as a home underdog to Houston. The last time the Jayhawks were an underdog in Allen Fieldhouse was 2021 when they rolled past future national champion Baylor, 71-58. |
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02-03-24 | The Citadel +7.5 v. East Tennessee State | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
East Tennessee State has only been favored once in its last eight games. That was against VMI. The Buccaneers were 10 1/2-point chalk and ended up winning by one point. |
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02-02-24 | Magic +8 v. Wolves | Top | 108-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Points are going to be hard to come by in this matchup between the Magic, who ranked fifth in the NBA defensively, and the Timberwolves, who give up the fewest points per game. That's why the oddsmaker has set a low total. So I find this to be a lot of points to get. |
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02-02-24 | Siena v. Rider -10.5 | 50-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Siena is 3-17 and tied for last in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference with a 2-7 mark. However, one of the Saints' victories came against Rider. |
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02-02-24 | Quinnipiac -6.5 v. Manhattan | 77-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Manhattan is one of the worst teams in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. The Jaspers don't have much of a home-court edge and are weak both offensively and defensively where they have permitted at least 81 points in three of their last four games. |
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02-01-24 | 76ers +4.5 v. Jazz | 127-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Let's get the bad out of the way first. No Joel Embiid and the 76ers are concluding a five-game road trip here. They have lost the first four games of their road swing. But things aren't good on the Utah side either. The Jazz are 2-5 in their past seven games with the only victories during this time frame coming against the Wizards and Hornets. Those two bottom feeders have a combined record of 19-74.  The Jazz also are in a tough situational spot. This is their first home contest since Jan. 18. The Jazz just concluded six consecutive road games with losses to the Nets and Knicks this past Monday and Tuesday nights.  Embiid may be out for a while. The 76ers need to prove they can win without him. They shouldn't lack motivation to salvage one game from their road trip. They also have revenge incentive for a 120-109 home loss to the Jazz on Jan. 6 when Embiid also was out.  There's a good chance the 76ers get back underrated Tyrese Maxey, who has missed the last three games with an ankle injury, and versatile Nicolas Batum.
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02-01-24 | Albany v. Vermont UNDER 148 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Albany is a high-scoring, up-tempo team with a weak defense. Vermont is just the opposite. The Catamounts rank 23rd in the nation defensively. They've held their last four foes to an average of 58.5 points. |
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02-01-24 | Appalachian State v. Georgia State +6 | 81-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm going to buy low on Georgia State. The Panthers have lost four in a row to drop below .500 on the season. Those four defeats, though, all came on the road. Georgia State is 6-1 at home, including winning its last six home games. |
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01-31-24 | Mavs +14 v. Wolves | Top | 87-121 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
I'm more interested in the Mavericks when they are underdogs - and they certainly are underdogs in this matchup judging by the lopsided point spread. It's way too many points for the Timberwolves to be laying. Dallas has ended its mini-slump winning two of its past three games, including nipping the Magic, 131-129, at home two days ago. Tim Hardaway Jr. has been picking up the slack for Kyrie Irving's absence. He had 36 points against Orlando.  The Mavericks are 12-9 on the road. They have covered seven of the last 11 times when getting points. Dallas also defeated the Timberwolves, 115-108, in the last meeting on Jan. 7 at home.  The Timberwolves are coming off a satisfying road win against the Thunder, in which Minnesota coach Chris Finch challenged his defense, but are just 3-3 in their last six games.  It's not an ideal situational spot either for the Timberwolves being their first home game in nine days following four consecutive road games. Minnesota is 0-2 in its last two home contests losing to the Hornets and Thunder.Â
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01-31-24 | Pelicans -135 v. Rockets | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
The Rockets enter this matchup a little fat and happy having buried the Lakers at home two days ago. Houston's three previous games were against the Nets, Hornets and Trail Blazers.
Let's contrast this with the Pelicans. New Orleans is in stop-the-pain mode with a three-game losing streak. Those losses, however, came on the road to the Celtics and Bucks and at home to the Thunder, who have the best point spread mark in the NBA. The Pelicans are at full strength. They own a big edge in this matchup from beyond the arc ranking third in the league in 3-point accuracy compared to the Rockets, who rate 27th in 3-point shooting percentage. |
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01-31-24 | Senators v. Red Wings -106 | 3-2 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
This is a huge revenge game for the Red Wings. They lost 5-1 to the Senators on Dec. 9 when Dylan Larkin was injured. The Red Wings haven't forgotten about that. Detroit has been playing much better since then going 9-2-1 this month. Ottawa, by contrast, is 5-7-2 this month. |
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01-31-24 | Furman v. The Citadel +7.5 | 82-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Furman is a high-scoring team, but this is too many points for the Paladins to lay on the road. |
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01-30-24 | San Diego State v. Colorado State -1.5 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
It's gut check time for Colorado State after consecutive road losses to Wyoming and Nevada. The Rams are in the NCAA Tournament hunt with a 15-5 record, but blew an 11-point lead with 1:11 left to fall to Wyoming in overtime this past Saturday in their last game. |
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01-30-24 | Jazz +4 v. Knicks | 103-118 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
I tried to step in against the Knicks with the Hornets on Monday. It was a mistake. The Hornets are an immature, gutless team. The Jazz aren't. They are well-coached, have a deep rotation and are below-the-radar with a 10-5 record this month. |
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01-30-24 | Marquette v. Villanova -125 | 85-80 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Villanova needs this game much more than Marquette. The Wildcats are in serious stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row. |
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01-29-24 | Wolves v. Thunder UNDER 225.5 | Top | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
NBA teams pick up their defensive intensity during the playoffs. There are some regular-season games, though, where that playoff defensive intensity surfaces. This should be one of those matchups.
Minnesota and Oklahoma City are tied for first in the Northwest Division. Both have been pointing to this showdown. Each team got caught looking ahead, too. The Timberwolves lost, 113-112, to the Spurs this past Saturday while the Thunder were upset by the Pistons, 120-104, on Sunday. Timberwolves coach Chris Finch ripped his team's defensive performance following the loss to the Spurs calling it disgusting and that his team was immature. I expect the Timberwolves to play far better on defense, being stung by their coaches' criticism. They are, after all, the No. 1 defensive team in the league holding opponents to an average of 107.6 points a game. The Timberwolves also rank first in defensive rebounding and No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage. Oklahoma City ranks No. 1 in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage. The Thunder, though, are averaging only 106 points during their last four games if you don't count their 140-114 win against the Spurs this past Wednesday. There were just 199 points scored during the team's last meeting when Oklahoma City won, 102-97, at Minneapolis nine days ago. |
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01-29-24 | Knicks v. Hornets +9 | 113-92 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
The Knicks have won a season-high six straight games. But don't be shocked if the Knicks stumble here against the lowly Hornets, a team they have easily beaten in all three meetings this season. |
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01-29-24 | Predators +101 v. Senators | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Nashville is one of the better road teams in the NHL and has a goalie edge with Juuse Saros back in net. Saros was rested in the Predators' last game, a 4-1 loss to the Oilers this past Saturday. Edmonton has won 16 in a row. The Predators held the Oilers to only 21 shots on goal. That was the second-fewest shots Edmonton took all season. |
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01-28-24 | Blue Jackets v. Seattle Kraken OVER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
I find this total too short given the circumstances and current form of these two teams. |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers UNDER 51 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 53 m | Show |
San Francisco has an elite defense. Detroit's defense is somewhat underrated. I don't trust Jared Goff in an outdoor big game even though there won't be bad weather. I don't consider Brock Purdy an elite quarterback. Deebo Samuel could be limited. |
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01-28-24 | Raptors +6.5 v. Hawks | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Yes, the Raptors are going through a rocky stage now losing eight of their last nine games. |
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01-27-24 | 76ers v. Nuggets -4.5 | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show | |
Denver is 5-2 in its last seven games. The Nuggets' losses during this span came to the Pacers this past Thursday on the final game of their five-game road trip and to the 76ers at the start of their road trip, which was 11 days ago. |
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01-27-24 | Colorado v. Washington State +1.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
It's easy to cite revenge for Washington State when going with the Cougars to beat Colorado at home in this matchup. The Buffaloes beat the Cougars, 74-67, in Boulder on Dec. 31. |
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01-27-24 | Princeton -140 v. Cornell | 68-83 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
These are the two best teams in the Ivy League. I like Princeton to get the victory here. The Tigers are 15-1, including 8-1 on the road. Princeton has covered 64 percent of its lined games, while Cornell has a losing ATS mark. Princeton has the better defense limiting foes to 63.2 points a game, ranks third in the nation in free throw percentage and commits few turnovers. Cornell, by contrast, gives up 75.8 points a game.Â
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01-26-24 | Kings v. Avalanche -140 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
The Kings are becoming a near auto-fade under Todd McLellan as the All-Star break draws near. LA is 2-12 in its last 14 games. The Kings just lost at home as huge favorites to the Sharks and Sabres this past Wednesday blowing a 3-1 lead. |
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01-26-24 | Magic -5 v. Grizzlies | 106-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
The Magic are finally healthy with Franz Wagner back in the lineup. The Grizzlies are so decimated with injuries that Scotty Pippen Jr. is now a key member of their rotation. |
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01-26-24 | Ohio v. Kent State -2.5 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
Kent State is far superior to Ohio in two key categories - 3-point shooting and free throw shooting. The Golden Flashes also are home for this Mid-American Conference matchup. That's a key, too. Ohio is 0-5 SU and ATS in its five true road games. |
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01-25-24 | Mt. St. Mary's +4.5 v. Quinnipiac | 65-79 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Mount St. Mary's beat Quinnipiac straight-up last season on the road as a bigger underdog than this. Quinnipiac is riding high on a five-game win streak after a home win against Iona. |
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01-25-24 | 76ers v. Pacers UNDER 236.5 | Top | 122-134 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
I understand Joel Embiid leads the NBA in scoring and is coming off a 70-point game this past Monday in Philadelphia's, 133-123, home win against the Spurs. |
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01-25-24 | SMU v. North Texas +1.5 | 66-68 | Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show | |
SMU plays outstanding defense. But North Texas plays even better defense. The Mean Green rank third in the nation defensively holding foes to 58.3 points a game. |
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01-24-24 | Hawks v. Warriors -7 | Top | 112-134 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
A disappointing season turned tragic for Golden State when assistant coach Dejan Milojevic died of a heart attack last Wednesday. The Warriors haven't played since. |
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01-24-24 | Hornets v. Pistons UNDER 232.5 | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
After a pair of games against the Bucks, the second-highest scoring team in the NBA, the Pistons host the Hornets. Charlotte just upset the Timberwolves as a 14-point road 'dog two days ago despite Karl-Anthony Towns scoring 62 points. |
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01-24-24 | George Washington v. Richmond UNDER 147.5 | 74-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
It's not a fluke the Under has cashed in seven of Richmond's last eight games. The Spiders have a top-30 defense and are one of the slowest-tempo teams in the country. |
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01-23-24 | San Diego +3.5 v. Portland | 85-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Portland is too weak defensively to lay this many points. San Diego is 0-5 in the West Coast Conference. But the Toreros are 10-10 overall. Their conference losses have been against the best teams in the league, Gonzaga twice, St. Mary's and San Francisco. |
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01-23-24 | Houston v. BYU +2.5 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Houston is finding out the hard way that winning on the road in the Big 12 Conference is tough. The Cougars are ranked fourth in the country, but they are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road in the Big 12 losing to Iowa State and TCU. |
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01-23-24 | Jazz v. Pelicans OVER 238.5 | 124-153 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
Two healthy, high-scoring teams playing on extra rest. That's what we have in this matchup. Those factors should spell lots of points and the total going Over. |
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01-22-24 | Hawks v. Kings -8 | 107-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Who's the most underachieving team in the NBA? If you go by point spread records it's the Hawks. Atlanta has covered only 26 percent of its games going 11-31 ATS. |
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01-22-24 | Weber State v. Montana UNDER 144.5 | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
When I get involved in a Big Sky Conference game, it's usually going Over the total. But I'm making an exception in this Big Sky matchup. I believe the oddsmaker has set too high of a total. |
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01-22-24 | Cavs +1.5 v. Magic | Top | 126-99 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in the NBA riding a seven-game win streak. During this span, the Cavaliers have held their opponents to an average of 98.4 points. That figure would easily lead the NBA in defense if it were season-long. Orlando ranks 25th in scoring and has the second-worst 3-point shooting percentage. |
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01-21-24 | Blazers v. Lakers -11.5 | 110-134 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
The Lakers are good enough - and the Trail Blazers are bad enough - for an LA blowout win here. The spot sets up for the Lakers. |
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01-21-24 | Stars v. Islanders -101 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
The Islanders are home, off a frustrating overtime road loss to the Blackhawks from two days ago and most important now have a new head coach. The Islanders fired Lane Lambert after the loss to the Blackhawks. Patrick Roy will make his New York coaching debut in this game.
That's the major part of my handicap - backing the home Islanders in their first game under their new coach. Obviously a strong, motivated effort should be forthcoming from the Islanders. Dallas is the better team, but it's not a great situational spot for the Stars. They are playing without rest and a bit fat and happy after a 6-2 road win against the Devils on Saturday. It's also the Stars' fourth game in six days and fourth straight game at a different arena. |
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01-21-24 | Chiefs v. Bills OVER 45.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 22 m | Show |
While I don't expect there to be nearly the number of combined points there were in the two recent previous playoff games between these teams - 62 in the 2020 season AFC title game and 78 in the 2021 season divisional round game - I do believe there will be enough points produced to push this game safely Over the total.
Unlike last week, weather won't be a major concern. No snow, high wind or excessive cold. Temperatures are projected to be in the mid-20s. Josh Allen is playing at a high level and he won't be holding back on his running. Allen accounted for four touchdowns in the Bills' 31-17 wild-card round victory at home against the Steelers. Allen threw three TD passes and rushed for 74 yards and a TD. The last time the Chiefs faced an above average offense on the road was back on Dec. 3 when they surrendered 27 points to the Packers. I'm expecting a big performance from Patrick Mahomes, too. It's taken all season, but the Chiefs finally have found a consistent wide receiver to go with dependable tight end Travis Kelce. That receiver is rookie Rashee Rice, who in his last two games has caught 13 passes for 257 yards. Mahomes can exploit a terribly banged-up Buffalo defense that has a cluster injury problem at both linebacker and in the secondary. The Bills already were down their best linebacker, Matt Milano, and top cornerback, Tre'Davious White. Buffalo then lost four more defensive regulars against the Steelers, including leading tackler Terrel Bernard, cornerback Christian Benford and nickelback Taron Johnson. The Bills may not have their starting punter either as Sam Martin is dealing with a hamstring injury. Note, too, the short point spread. So there's a stronger than normal chance of overtime. |
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01-21-24 | Oregon v. Utah -5 | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
Oregon wasn't expected to win as a six-point road 'dog to Colorado this past Thursday. But the Ducks' 86-70 loss to the Buffaloes shows some red flags concerning the team when playing away from Eugene. |
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01-20-24 | Packers v. 49ers -9.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
Lost in the glare of the Packers' 48-32 smashing upset victory of the Cowboys last Sunday was that Green Bay's defense was on the field for 89 plays.
Now the Packers go back on the road for the fourth time in the last five weeks - and on a short week with this being a Saturday game - to face a rested and healthy 49ers offense that led the league in net yards per passing play, rushing touchdowns and had the best red-zone conversion rate. The 49ers produced the second-most yards in the league and third-most points. I don't like Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry and I don't trust Green Bay's defense. The Packers gave up 30 points, 26 first downs and nearly 400 yards of offense to Carolina just four games ago. It's scary to think how many points Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk can put up against the Packers defense, which was 28th in stopping the run and hasn't been innovative all season. Star cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable, too, with an ankle injury. It's easy to overrate the Packers. After all, they just were seen burying the Cowboys in a game that was far more lopsided than the final score while the 49ers haven't played a meaningful game in three weeks. The 49ers are an elite, "A'' team. The Packers are two levels behind them and in a difficult situational spot. Green Bay has gone as far as it can go. Congrats to the Packers on a nice season, but it ends here and it ends in a big way. |
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01-20-24 | Cavs -135 v. Hawks | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
I thought the Cavaliers would be good going into the season and Cleveland is living up to that. The Cavaliers are 11-3 in their last 14 games and have won six in a row. Cleveland just buried the Bucks by 40 points. That was on Wednesday. The Cavaliers haven't played since. So they should be well rested and well prepared. |
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01-20-24 | Stars -130 v. Devils | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
I'm looking for a strong bounce back game from Dallas after the Stars lost, 5-1, to the Flyers at home two days ago. That was the Stars' most lopsided defeat since Dec. 9. |
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01-20-24 | Purdue v. Iowa +7 | Top | 84-70 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Iowa is much improved since an 87-68 road loss to Purdue back on Dec. 4. The Hawkeyes are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. They have won and covered three in a row beating Rutgers, Nebraska and Minnesota by an average of 12 points. |
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01-19-24 | Hawks v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | 109-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
The Heat have had the sixth-best defensive rating during the last 10 games and they draw the Hawks without Trae Young. He's been ruled out due to illness. Young is the eighth-highest scorer in the NBA averaging 27.2 points. He's also No. 2 in the league in assists averaging 10.9 per game.  The Hawks have held their last two opponents, the Magic to 104 points, and Spurs to 99 points. Atlanta, though, is averaging only 105.5 points in its last four games. |
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01-19-24 | 76ers v. Magic UNDER 223 | 124-109 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
Missing Franz Wagner, their second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game, the Magic are averaging only 98 points during their past five games. |
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01-19-24 | Wild v. Panthers -1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
Florida is in second place in the Atlantic Division with 58 points. But the Panthers are in must-win mode having lost three in a row - two in overtime - and finishing a five-game homestand with this matchup. |
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01-19-24 | Marist +3.5 v. Mt. St. Mary's | Top | 48-65 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
Maybe I'm a sucker, but I can't turn down taking points with the better team. That's what I find in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference matchup between Marist and Mount St. Mary's. |
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01-18-24 | Predators +135 v. Kings | Top | 2-1 | Win | 135 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
This is a mystifying line. Since when is a team that has lost nine of their last 10 games, carries a high fatigue rating and is in a terrible situational spot a mid-sized favorite against an above .500 quality opponent? |
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01-18-24 | Troy State v. South Alabama | Top | 71-74 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
Troy enters this matchup riding a lot of momentum and has significant edges on South Alabama in several key areas. |
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01-18-24 | Tenn-Martin v. Morehead State UNDER 150.5 | 66-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Morehead State gives up the 11th-fewest points per game in the country at 62.6. The Eagles rank sixth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and 11th in 3-point defense. They are the top defensive team in the Ohio Valley Conference. |
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01-17-24 | Heat v. Raptors +1.5 | 97-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
There are enough factors going to support the home underdog Raptors. |
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01-17-24 | Lafayette v. Holy Cross +5.5 | Top | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
The bar is set low for Holy Cross in this Patriot League matchup. Holy Cross is 4-13. Lafayette is 5-12, but leads the Patriot League with a 4-0 mark. The Crusaders are 1-3 in league making this a crucial home game for them. |
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