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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-22-17 | Lakers v. Warriors -11 | 106-113 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Golden State Warriors -11 |
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12-22-17 | Mavs -1 v. Heat | 101-113 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Dallas Mavericks -1 |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan +3.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -105 | 67 h 38 m | Show |
It’s been really tough to watch the Cowboys’ offense this season. Even with a healthy Josh Allen under center the Pokes struggled to move the ball on the ground and through the air. The big story is the status of Allen. Right now he is expected to play, but as you know, a lot can change between now and game day when you are talking about a potential first round NFL draft pick nursing a “sore shoulder”. Allen has struggled due to a lack of weapons at RB or WR. Allen had just 13 TD passes this season (missed time due to injury), their leading RB has 474 yards and their top WR has just 520. The Pokes ended the season ranked #125 in total offense and managed just 4.7 yards per play (#11 Mountain West). They finished up the 2017 regular season #114 in 3rd down conversions. The Chippewas had an excellent season defensively finishing up ranked #2 in the MAC in yards per play allowed, #55 in total defense (FBS) and #7 in pass efficiency defense (FBS) and amazingly they were #1 in the FBS in forced turnovers. They allowed just 13 TD passes all season and picked off 19. Offensively they were pretty average statistically this season (#71 offense FBS), but they did heat up down the stretch scoring 56,35,42,42 and 31 in their final five games. QB Sugar Shane Morris is a lock to clear 3,000 yards in this game and has been solid this year, although to be honest, we are not crazy about the 13 INT's. That is particularly true when going up against an excellent Wyoming defense that was #2 in the FBS in forced turnovers. They have a balanced offense with an underrated RB in J Ward (988 yards rushing, 41 receptions), a fine 1-2 punch at WR (C Willis, M Chapman 1,400 yards and 14 TD's combined) along with star TE Tyler Conklin who is healthy after missing a lot of the season due to injury. It is no secret that they started to roll on offense once he got healthy. Josh Allen. Will he play ? Will he sit ? I feel Central Michigan is the better team and that they can win regardless of who starts at QB. Central Michigan +3.5 |
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12-21-17 | Spurs v. Jazz +3 | 89-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Utah Jazz +3 |
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12-21-17 | Celtics v. Knicks +3.5 | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* New York Knicks +3.5 |
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12-21-17 | Bulls +10.5 v. Cavs | 112-115 | Win | 100 | 2 h 12 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Chicago Bulls +10.5 |
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12-20-17 | Magic +5.5 v. Bulls | 94-112 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Orlando Magic +5.5 |
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12-20-17 | Louisiana Tech +5.5 v. SMU | Top | 51-10 | Win | 100 | 47 h 11 m | Show |
It was foreseen the Bulldogs would take a step back this season after losing a pair of 1,500+ yard receivers and a 4600-yard QB. They held their own this season finishing up #5 in C-USA in yards per play and were balanced (#54 rushing, #64 passing). QB J’Mar Smith is not a polished passer by any means, but he is improving (13-5 TD to INT ratio) and has some good mobility (5 rushing TD's) and threw those 5 picks in 386 attempts. The running game has a great 1-2 punch in Boston Scott (937 yards; 272 last two games) and J Craft (1,000-yards last season; one carry last three games due to injury; now healthy) which gets to go up against a soft SMU defense. They were ranked #121 in total defense this season and #112 vs the run allowing over 5 yards per carry. The pass defense was brutal as well finishing up #116 in pass efficiency defense, and even though La Tech is not explosive in the passing game, they have enough weapons to make you respect the possibility of a big play (Teddy Veal 832 yards). You need multiple fingers to count the number of times SMU yielded 600 yards of offense. Rock solid CB Jordan Wyatt had two pick 6's but will miss this contest. Leading tackler Mikial Onu is questionable. It feels like La Tech will be able to do whatever they want on offense. On Defense Louisiana Tech finished up #65 in total defense and did a good job against some good offenses like W Kentucky (22), S Carolina (17), UAB (23), and North Texas (24). They are well coached and experienced and have a knack for making the big play (16 INTs). Their defense was ranked #12 in the FBS in the red zone. There is no doubt that SMU gets some points, but it’s hard to see them go off on this defense. There were a lot of strange and close losses for LT this year so they have to feel like they are playing with house money coming into this one. Head Coach Holtz is 3-0 bowl games with LT and I think they have the coaching edge for this game. Overall it seems like a good spot for LT. The SMU defense is poor and it feels like the Bulldogs should be able to take advantage. If either team implodes I feel it will be SMU. Louisiana Tech +5.5 |
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12-18-17 | Falcons -6.5 v. Bucs | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -113 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
A lot of injuries on the Atlanta defensive side (Gerald McCoy, Lavante David, +many others), combined with a true must win for Atlanta considering they have two tough games remaining (NO and CAR) and need to win two of the remaining three to make the playoffs. Despite the Falcons not looking like a Super Bowl contender this season, they are coming off 10 days rest I expect them to come out firing tonight. People are jumping on the touchdown dogs at home, but the real value 'aka the Sharp Side' lies in the visiting team. Atlanta Falcons -6.5 |
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12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 49 | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Over 49 |
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12-18-17 | 76ers v. Bulls +2 | 115-117 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Chicago Bulls +2 |
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12-18-17 | Heat v. Hawks +1 | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Atlanta Hawks +1 |
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12-18-17 | Knicks v. Hornets -6.5 | 91-109 | Win | 100 | 2 h 37 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Charlotte Hornets -6.5 |
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12-17-17 | Patriots -2.5 v. Steelers | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* New England Patriots -2.5 |
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12-17-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 96 h 37 m | Show |
*Barking Dog* Russell Wilson’s performance against the Eagles was a fluke. His mechanics are still bad, maybe he is secretly injured. He needs a whole lot of strength to loft balls deep instead of flipping it as he did his entire career. Turns out into bad accuracy with high variation. This time is the Rams’ best chance to beat the Seahawks as their defense is falling apart. No Chancellor, Sherman, Avril and now they lost Wagner and Wright last Sunday. Wagner was already banged up and this week he is going to be a game time decision but I highly doubt he is going to play. Wagner is the play-caller and probably the best LB in the league this year. Anticipation against run & play-action and zone discipline take a huge hit without him and that’s really bad against the Rams as Sean McVays offense is based on heavy play fakes to open up receivers in space and attack soft spots in certain zone concepts. With a thin defensive line, it’s gonna be real tough to generate consistent stops against the Rams that way. You can expect the Seahawks defense to offer certain space to Gurley & TEs underneath and without Sherman they don’t have the corners to match up with Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods who is likely returning this week. I expect the Rams to be able to score in the 20's this week and be very well prepared in a revenge game. The first time these two met in week 5, the Rams outgained the Seahawks 375 – 241 total yards and by an astonishing 1.6 yards per play. The key difference was that the Seahawks defense was healthy that time and held the Rams to 0/4 in the red zone. One red zone attempt was completely fluky because Gurley scored a touchdown and dropped the ball away for a touchdown. They also had a missed FG. So a score of 17-16 Rams would have mirrored the 60 minutes much better than 10-16. The Rams defense with getting Trumaine Johnson back should have enough power to overwhelm the Seahawks and they always had their number during the last couple seasons. Los Angeles Rams +2.5 (play down to -2.5 if necessary) |
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12-17-17 | Jets v. Saints UNDER 47 | Top | 19-31 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 11 m | Show |
*Top Total of the Week* The Jets are probably the worst road team in 2017. They are 1-5 SU away from home, getting outscored 14.5 – 24.8. Their lone win was at Cleveland in a game the Browns out gained them by around 200 yards and committed three turnovers inside the 5. Last week at Denver they were shut 0-23. And now with Josh McCown landing on the IR, the Jets will start Bryce Petty at QB this week – let me tell you this as a Jets fan: he is awful. Small sample size, but over 142 career passes he has a completion percentage of 54%, 3 TD, 7 INT and 5.8 YPA. The Jets aren’t going to move the ball at New Orleans, because the Saints won’t respect the pass and can stack the box heavily with Lattimore locking down Anderson or Kearse. The Saints’ offensive philosophy is to get a lead and sit on it by running down the clock and rest the arm of Drew Brees. As they are already preparing for the Falcons game next week which seems to be their personal Super Bowl, they won’t be interested in running up the score against the Jets. They will jump a lead and hand it off to Kamara/Ingram in the second half. Sustain drives as much as possible, keep a slow pace to keep offense and defense as fresh as possible. If you ask Sean Payton, he would sign a 10-7 win without injuries right now. I am seeing this game being played out similar to the Bucs/Saints game when the Bucs weren’t able to score and the Saints just took shots when given opportunities. Under 47 |
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12-17-17 | Ravens -7 v. Browns | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 92 h 53 m | Show | |
*Fave of the Week* The Cleveland Browns spend the practice weeks inventing new ways to blow covers. They had their personal Super Bowl last week, their best chance to win a game. They were up 21-7 and managed to lose 21-27 despite outgaining the Packers by 1.5 yards per play. Now they get to play a Ravens team desperate for a win off a close prime time loss vs their rivals. Big Ben & Antonio Brown had a good matchup against Baltimore last week in their first game without Jimmy Smith. And it looks like they went off on the Ravens D, but the score looks much worse than it actually was. They had so many yards and points because they ran 85 plays with 66 passes. These high-paced games are rare and occur a handful of times per season. Defenses get worn out in the fourth quarter – same here as the Ravens gave up 19 points then. The Steelers did nothing really special from an efficiency standpoint, they just chased the game in a successful way through the best WR in the league. That’s an achievement without a doubt, but it shouldn’t let the Ravens defense look awful. The Browns don’t have a Ben-Brown matchup to exploit the Ravens’ secondary, even though Josh Gordon is a great addition to that offense. I am expecting the same kind of game we saw in the first matchup with the Ravens defense shutting down the Browns and the offense doing just enough to make the effort of the defense and special teams count. Ravens by 10+. Baltimore Ravens -7 |
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12-17-17 | Bengals v. Vikings -11.5 | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Minnesota Vikings -11.5 |
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12-17-17 | Packers +3 v. Panthers | 24-31 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Green Bay Packers +3 |
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12-16-17 | Chargers -1 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 43 m | Show |
If you had asked me before the season who is the better team in this one, I would have said Chargers. Ask me now and I scream Chargers! LAC is playing lights out right now, on offense and on defense. Their only weakness is red zone efficiency as they converted only 4 red zone trips out of 15 into touchdowns during the last three games. 26.6% would rank dead-last in the league over the course of a season. However, this number should regress to the mean (league average is 54%) sooner than later, for instance against the Chiefs’ 20th ranked red zone defense (56%). That’s the scary part – the Chargers were highly underachieving in that area of the field. But the interesting part is that they consistently put themselves into a position to score even a FG while their defense shuts opponents down. Since the Eagles game they have allowed an average of 13.9 defensive PPG. Despite all the early season struggles, their offense is really flying under the radar. Anthony Lynn has established a great scheme that creates open routes, quick options for Rivers and a lot of big play opportunities. In the first game between these two, the Chargers lost 10-24 in embarrassing fashion. They were 0-3 in turnovers and the Chiefs scored 17 points off three interceptions. It was a stretch when the Chiefs were red-hot and the Chargers were ice-cold. It was also the time when they haven’t figured out their offense yet, Keenan Allen was still rusty and Hunter Henry wasn’t involved in the offense. Now the situation is reversed – the Chargers are red-hot and playing like a true Super Bowl contender whereas the Chiefs lost 6 of their last 8 with two wins against the Broncos and the fraud team from Oakland. The Chargers are light years ahead of those two. Los Angeles is going to Arrowhead and should dominate this Chiefs squad from start to finish. Chiefs are sure to have some success via Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt on the ground, but I expect their WRs to be non-existent and the Chargers defend passes to RBs very well. Chiefs will struggle in the most important area – passing offense. Even if the Chiefs make it into the red zone, they have been struggling mightily in that area of the field and the Chargers defense ranks 2nd in red zone efficiency (38%) right after the Jaguars. The Chargers offense should move the ball pretty efficiently here as the Chiefs have a bad defense with a bad pass rush and a horrible track record vs WR1's. Keenan Allen is red-hot and should kill that secondary even with Marcus Peters back. Chargers win this one and put themselves into the AFC West lead. Los Angeles Chargers -1 |
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12-16-17 | Oregon -7 v. Boise State | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 7 m | Show |
The Oregon offense is just way better with starting QB Justin Herbert running the show. The Ducks have averaged over 50 points a game with him at the controls and have been borderline bad without him under center. Starting RB Royce Freeman is a star and will not be playing in this game, but that will not affect this team. The strength of this offense is in the depth at running back and the skill of the QB. The Ducks had 40 rushing TD's and Freeman had 16. The strength of the Boise St team is their defense which is ranked #23 in the FBS and #2 in the MW in yards per play allowed. However the competition they have faced wasn't great. The MW was down this season and Oregon can bring a world of hurt if they are focused. The Broncos have struggled on offense this season and have the #88 rushing offense in the FBS. Everyone is focused on the Oregon offensive stars, but no one is focusing on the fact that two of the three best Boise St offensive players (RB – A Mattison 1,074 yards; TE Jack Roh 9 TD's) will either be OUT or limited in their ability. Boise utilizes a two QB system and will have to mix and match to the best of their ability to stay in this game. WR Cedric Wilson is a true star, but he'll be asked to do a too much in this one. The Oregon defense is the most underrated unit in this game as they finished #41 in the FBS playing a much tougher schedule. They were #3 in the PAC 12 in yards per play allowed and #2 in run defense. Boise is capable of scoring points, but they have needed help from their defense and special teams all season to win games. Oregon also know that Boise beat them twice in a row (almost a decade ago) and also realize it has been a long time since bowl victory themselves. Oregon -7 |
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12-14-17 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 213 | Top | 111-104 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Neither team has a point guard which pushes the pace and with a couple key injuries on both sides, I expect this to be a half-court offensive fair. Nets PG Spencer Dinwiddie is a classic set up the offense or high pick and roll/pop type player. Note that Brooklyn is missing faced paced Lin and Russel. On the other side of the ball, Jarrett Jack may be the slowest paced PG in the league. He reminds me a lot of Sam Cassell where by he hurts you at certain spots on the floor, but never in transition. The other positive surrounding this under play is Hardaway Jr. still out. He's shown the ability to light it up beyond 3 and push the pace when needed. When these two teams met earlier this year the total was set at 222.5 and the game finished 29.5 points below that mark at 193. Yes the Lakers went over the number on Tuesday in New York, but that game went into OT and Lonzo was the one pushing the pace the entire way. Brooklyn meanwhile as seen the number go under the total in five straight games. Under 213 |
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12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 48 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
At the beginning of the year the Super Bowl contending New England Patriots were said to be in big trouble due to their horrible defense, ranking near last in every category. As usual, Bill Belichick and company figured it out and have held opponents to 17 or less points in their last 8 games, winning all 8. On Monday night they visit the Miami Dolphins who rank near last in every offensive output category. They are 29th in Total Yards per game, 29th in Rushing Yards, and 27th in Points Scored. However on Defense they can hold their own, 16th in Total Yards allowed including 14th in Passing Yards allowed. With Gronk being out for the Patriots, I expect the Dolphins to be able to key in on other important matchups such as WR Hogan & Cooks and their trio of running backs. Being a road division game, I don't expect the Patriots to take a ton of chances, rather I see them keying on ball control and the clock management to grind out a win - largely with a rushing attack. Where as with the Dolphins, I expect to play a motivated game on Defense (especially with Gronk out) and Cutler to struggle in the air as usual. Under 48 |
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12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins +12 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
The Patriots will be hard pressed to find enough motivation to cover the spread on Monday night. With a league leading and potential 1st round bye matchup looming against the Steleers next week, Gronk sidelined with a suspension and a heavy travel schedule as of late, the Patriots ability to win by nearly two touchdowns on the road in a primetime game would be very surprising. The Dolphins are certainly not a great team by any means, however bad/average teams perform much better in their own stadium and they are seeking that quality win in 2017 - something which they've yet to achieve. They lost in London to NO 20-0, they lost on primetime to BAL 40-0, they lost on primetime to CAR 45-21 and they lost earlier this year to the Pats 35-17. We all know how good the Patriots can be, however with the loss of Gronkowski, the offense won't come so easily especially in the red zone. The last time Gronk missed a game, the Pats scored 19 points on the road including 1 touchdown and 4 field goals to the Bucs. When the Pats beat Miami two weeks ago, he went off for 82 yards and 2 TD's. Additionally, the Pats travel schedule has taken them from Boston to Denver, then to Mexico, back to Boston, then to Buffalo, now to Miami. The Dolphins have been home for 3 of the last 4 weeks and will definitely be the more rested and healthier team. The Pats will have difficulty keeping the peddle down for an entire 60 minutes of football in this one. They always beat Miami and just beat them by 18 two weeks ago, they aren't healthy, they've had a ton of travel, and they're playing for home field advantage in the playoffs in 7 days from now. For the Dolphins this is a huge motivation game being a division rival, a primetime game and being at home. Miami Dolphins +12 |
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12-10-17 | Eagles +115 v. Rams | Top | 43-35 | Win | 115 | 118 h 29 m | Show |
*Barking Dog* This situation is equal to Saints/Rams in week 12. The Eagles (who are staying on the west coast) come off a loss in a horrible spot in which they were supposed to lose. The interesting part about SNF was that the Eagles didn’t play bad – in fact, I still believe they are a better team than Seattle. Philly outgained them by an astonishing 115 total yards, 0.4 yards per play, 5 first downs. They just got victimized by MVP caliber Russell Wilson and some bad luck (turnover at the goal line, crucial penalties). The Rams come off a game against a bad Cardinals team against which they were supposed to win. They won by 16 but the game was actually pretty even. The Rams got 7 points off an interception return TD and started on the ARI 23 for another touchdown. Their performance against the Cardinals wasn’t as good as the final score indicates. This week they get to face an Eagles team that will bring everything possible to the table after they lost at the right time. The Eagles also have a dream matchup for Goff and his offense. The Seahawks showed us how to beat the Eagles: get a little creative on first down, spread it out with quick passes along with some empty formations. Russell Wilson’s performance was so great because he was highly accurate and fit the ball quickly into tight windows and extended plays almost no one else is able to. Jared Goff cannot do that. The Rams offense relies on fooling opposing defenses with misdirection, play fakes and to get guys open behind a good pass protection where Goff’s rather slow process in the pocket doesn’t hurt. Goff needs wide open receivers or time by completely trusting his OL to hold up. The three nightmare matchups this year were against the Hawks, Jaguars and Vikings – three top-10 defenses that are able to generate crazy pressure by just sending their front four. The Rams scored 10, 16 and 7 points. In all three games they were pretty much shut down after their scripted opening drive. I truly expect the Eagles to do what those other defenses did – win the battle in the trenches, stop the run and force Goff to make tougher and quicker reads from condensed pockets. Eagles defense will show up big time in a great matchup. On the other side, the Philly offense is good enough to score on every defense. Like I said, on a different day they score 20+ on the Hawks. Their dominant offensive line and creative play-calling always dictates what the defense needs to do. Expecting a bounce back game with better luck than on SNF. Eagles win this one straight up. Philadelphia Eagles M/L (If you can find a +3 @ -115 or less take the field goal insurance, but otherwise play on the m/l). |
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12-10-17 | Seahawks +125 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
*Oddsmaker Error* The Jacksonville Jaguars are -2.5 to -3 favourites against the 'December' Seahawks, including 'December' Wilson. I think this is a clear oddsmakers error. Last Sunday the Seahawks offense finally played as I expected them to play before the season. If that performance wasn’t a fluke and Wilson is really back to his former self, the Hawks are going to make the NFC playoffs even more exciting. With the Seahawks there is something magical about that time of the year. Since 2012, the season Russell Wilson became the Seahawks QB, this team is 21-5 SU & 20-6 ATS between weeks 13 and 17 in the regular season, outscoring opponents 28-12.2. 3 ATS losses occured last season when they were playing without Earl Thomas who is hands down the most valuable defensive player in the league. They conceded 23, 34 and 38 points in those three games. Their 'December' record on the road is 9-2 ATS with both losses coming last year without Earl Thomas, they went 9-0 ATS from 2012-2015. I don’t know what drugs they take, but they kill teams late in the season. Defense took a few hits, but that’s still a good defense with a good starting front four, a great LB corps and Earl Thomas. The CBs are exploitable by good passing attacks (and that will most likely be their achilles in the playoffs), but that defense is still pretty good and well coached. The Jaguars aren’t going to move the ball efficiently on the Hawks and they don’t have the efficient passing attack to exploit that weakness. Seattle is going to bait Blake Bortles into mistakes. The Jaguars offense looked good against the #30 ranked pass defense by DVOA missing their best CB last Sunday but two weeks ago they just looked awful against a good Arizona defense. That ARI game should be the reference when analyzing this matchup. The Jaguars offensive line is completely banged up and will lose the trenches battle against Richardson, Bennett, Clark, Reed and Jones. Bortles is good for 1-2 picks and the running game is good for 4-5 TFL. If we see 'December' Wilson, it will be enough to benefit from the defensive effort and the Seahawks go 9-4. Wilson and the offense showed us the blueprint of how to beat a strong pass rush last SNF. Spread it out and hit precise passes quickly. The Hawks should do just that against Jacksonville. The Jaguars are laying 3 to the Seahawks. It’s the Jaguars against the Seahawks. Blake Bortles against Russell Mr. December Wilson. Let’s not overthink this. Seattle Seahawks moneyline (If you can find a +3 @ -115 or less take the field goal insurance, but otherwise play on the m/l) |
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12-10-17 | Cowboys v. Giants +6 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 17 m | Show |
*Syndicate Steam* Finally the Giants got rid of HC Ben McAdoo. He did a great job from 2014-2015 as the OC, but since he has been the HC the offense has arguably been bottom three material. This season he lost everyone on the roster. The “team plays hard after the HC got fired” angle is one of my favourite. I truly expect the Giants to come out firing on both sides to destroy all playoffs hopes the Cowboys still have. I like Steve Spagnuolo as a DC and I believe he hasn’t had any discrepancies with the team – he will get them ready to roll. OC Mike Sullivan will try to get creative – it may not be enough to light up a bad Cowboys defense with Sean Lee back, but it should be enough to cover this game. The Cowboys destroyed the Redskins in prime time – atleast that’s what the final result says. But the truth is, the Redskins actually outgained them while losing by 24. More total yards, more yards per play, held Dak to 11/22 for 96 net yards passing, but they had 4 turnovers and the Cowboys had zero. Even the 4.3 YPC by the Cowboys weren’t anything special, but the Redskins weren’t able to generate key stops on the short fields they provided. We should have the same opinion on the Cowboys offense we had pre TNF – they aren’t good at all. The Giants’ defensive line around JPP, Vernon and Snacks is still able to win in the trenches and Spagnuolo always seems to be in Dak’s mind. In their three games with Dak against this Giants defense with Spag as the DC, the Cowboys haven’t topped 20 points. They scored 20, 10 and 19. If the Giants don’t lose the turnover battle by -4 as the Skins did I don’t see how the Cowboys get into the 20's here. If they don’t get into the 20's, the spread of +3.5 to +6 should be money. New York Giants +6 (this line is sure to move, play down to +3.5 if necessary) |
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12-10-17 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 48.5 | 15-26 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Pick Only* Over 48.5 |
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12-09-17 | Army +3 v. Navy | Top | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 45 h 23 m | Show |
Navy brings the #2 rushing offense in the FBS into this game and there is no secret regarding their strategy on offense. Run the ball. Convert on 3rd down. Hit one or two big pass plays. QB Zach Abey should be healthy and ready to go for this game. Abey is more than capable of hitting the odd big play down the field in the passing game, but he has also tossed 7 INT in just 70 attempts. Army has been decent shutting down their opponents’ rushing attacks allowing just 3.1, 2.7 and 2.5 yards attempt in their past three contests (103,89,89 yards). On thing to keep in mind is that Navy has allowed 12 sacks in less than 100 attempts (12.1% sack rate). Army has bagged 24 sacks this season and I feel that a mistake or two in the passing game may be a big advantage for Army. Army has the #1 rushing offense in the FBS and are going to challenge the Navy defense despite the fact that Navy are very familiar with the triple option offense. Senior QB Ahmad Bradshaw is a force on the ground amassing 1,472 yards rushing and 11 TD's at 7.8 yards a pop. They are deep in terms of complementary pieces to the rushing attack (Wolfolk, Walker, Davidson) and are going to present 60 minutes of hell to the Navy defense. Army has only allowed one sack all season long and actually won three games without completing a pass. Navy has the more dangerous rushing attack on paper, but do not be surprised if it is Army that makes more big plays in the passing game. The Black Knights have converted 53% of their 3rd down attempts (#1 FBS) and will be hard to stop on Saturday. Army +3 |
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12-07-17 | Saints +2.5 v. Falcons | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
The key to this game is a 21-year old CB who plays for the New Orleans Saints – Marshon Lattimore. If Lattimore plays this week (currently Questionable), he will shadow Julio which makes the job of Matt Ryan almost as uncomfortable as it was against the Vikes. The Saints defense in general isn’t as stout as the Vikings and the Falcons will be efficient on the ground, but taking away Julio allows the Saints defense to shift their attention to the other guys and to stack the box even more. Last Sunday, the Falcons were held to 9 points and 1/10 on third down. For the first seven weeks, the Falcons offense wasn’t efficient by any means. Steve Sarkisian basically didn’t know how to get that offense going. He didn’t involve Julio Jones enough. From week 8 to 12, this offense played differently. Sarkisian involved Julio a lot more on first down and deep passes which completely altered the offense. Per Warren Sharp, Julio was targeted 44% on first down and 66% deep (from 30%) between week 8 and 12. The offense was moving the ball much more efficiently and had a much easier job on third down when they got to it. All other WRs benefited from that. During that span, they faced NYJ, CAR, DAL, SEA & TB. NONE of these teams had a quality CB1 that was able to match up with Julio. Last Sunday, “Rhodes closed” was shadowing him and his stat line was 2-24-0 on 6 targets. This led to a worse first down efficiency than usual and the Falcons’ average distance to go on third down was 8.4 yards. It’s tough to move the sticks that way. Falcons should be able to put up points, but the Saints defense will generate some key stops. That brings us to the Falcons defense that looked to have a good day against the Vikings offense. Atlanta has a bottom-3 run defense but somehow managed to hold the Vikes to 3.4 yards per carry. However, the Saints and their two-headed monster Kamara/Ingram (fingers crossed Ingram can play as he is still Questionable) are still a different category and should move the ball all day on the Falcons front seven and their secondary doesn’t have enough firepower to consistently match up with all the Saints WRs without much help from the front four against a good NO pass protection. It should be noted that LG Andrus Peat is out for the Saints, however this was expected and backup Senio Kelemete will fill in. Kelemete is a 27 year old vet at 6'3" 300lbs, so I don't expect a huge drop in performance at LG. Also, LT Terron Armstead should be back. I love the Saints here with Lattimore playing and the Saints should get more key stops on defense which could lead to a 27-21 kind of win, but taking any kind of points here is a bonus. New Orleans Saints +2.5 (buy up to +3 if -115 or less) |
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12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals +6 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This game presents itself as a great revenge opportunity for the Bengals and I expect them to take full advantage. Cincinnati looks to salvage their season (5W-6L; currently 3rd in AFCN) after winning two straight games and getting a dvision home primetime game against their rival Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers have won 5 straight games over the Bengals and have won all games in Cincy dating back to 2013. The Steelers, winners of 6 straight games coming into tonight's matchup, come in to this game a little banged up with Antonio Brown being a game time decision. If he can't go that would be huge for the Bengals, however they'll still need to keep their eye on Martavis Bryant and the rest of the WR's who would fill in for AB. I expect a motivated performance on defense this evening by the Bengals after losing 29-14 in Pittsburgh earlier this year. Look for Atkins to provide a lot of pressure on an aging Roethisberger who doesn't seem to avoid back field tackles like he once did. Coming off a +100 yard performance on the ground, look for Joe Mixon to establish the run in order to set up a Dalton/Green combination down field. The Bengals may eventually shoot themselves in the foot like they've done a lot this year already, however we are getting substantial points at home for an important division game under the national spotlight and the line value is simply too much. They may lose in the end, but I expect them to compete and make it a close game. Cincinnati Bengals +6 (play down to +4.5) |
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12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks +6 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Seattle Seahawks +6 |
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12-03-17 | Panthers v. Saints -5 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* New Orleans Saints -5 |
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12-03-17 | Vikings +3 v. Falcons | Top | 14-9 | Win | 100 | 101 h 33 m | Show |
'Top Underdog of Week 13' The Minnesota Vikings are still not getting enough credit in my opinion. +3 at Atlanta means they would be even on a neutral field – disagree! The Vikings are the better team, playing better Football on both sides of the ball and all that against a stronger schedule. Purple Pain ranks 1st in my efficiency ranking and played the 4th-toughest efficiency schedule. I am missing quality wins from the Falcons this season. They had a quality win against the Packers who lost both their starting tackles in that game when I remember right. They lost vs the Bills, Dolphins and got killed by the Pats. They won a stinker against the Jets, so they aren’t far away from going 0-4 against the AFC East. They were dominant against the Cowboys without Zeke, Tyron Smith and Sean Lee. They won at Seattle by gaining less than 200 pass yards and less than 100 rush yards. Less than 5% of the teams since 1989 scored 30+ points in that scenario – the Falcons are one of them. They played a Bucs team that lost 3 offensive linemen along with their two best (Dotson & Marpet) and SS TJ Ward during the game, that was without their best cornerback (Hargreaves) and their best defensive end (Ayers). You cannot decide who you play, but you can decide how you play them and I am really missing quality wins from the Falcons. Games in which they really dominated a good opponent from start to finish. So now they are -3 favs against the Vikings? I expected that line to be around pk. The Falcons have a bad matchup against the top-teams in the NFC simply because of their defense. For the past two weeks I have been wondering they the good per-play efficiency of the Falcons doesn’t pass the eye test. They play a very conservative defense without a lot of blitzes. They want to limit big plays and keep the game in front of them. They limit big plays but they don’t efficiently shutting down opposing offenses. Last week the Bucs offense lost three starting linemen and still moved the ball on them. They turned the ball over in the Falcons red zone on 4th & 1 by throwing deep so they had a shot at scoring more than 20. That Vikings offensive line is gonna impose its will on them all game long. They are going to move the ball on the ground and through the air. Falcons CB Desmond Trufant is in the concussion protocol and didn’t practice on Wednesday. If he is absent, Brian Poole and Robert Alford will play outside against arguably the best WR tandem in the NFL – Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. When Thielen plays in the slot, it’s Brian Poole or rookie safety Demontae Kazee on him – disaster. The Vikings should have no trouble posting 30+ points against the Falcons and make a huge statement. The Falcons offense is a bit overrated in my opinion and they are going to have problems moving the ball on one of the best defenses. With Matt Ryans interception-regression year I wouldn’t be surprised by 2 interceptions even though Case Keenum is also always good for one. Vikings should get a road win at Atlanta against a team that is overrated IMO and isn’t expected to compete with the NFC juggernauts. Vikings +3 |
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12-03-17 | Lions v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 101 h 32 m | Show |
'Top Fave of Week 13' I keep saying this: the Lions are the luckiest team in the NFL. The loss to the Vikes should have been a blowout, but they were gifted the TD drive right before halftime and got another TD when Stafford threw it up into double coverage. Vikes missed four points by kicking. A score of 34-17ish would have been closer to reality. Now they travel to Baltimore to play the No.1 ranked defense on the road in an open stadium. The Ravens defense also ranks 4th in scoring and 3rd in yards per play. This is going to be one heck of an away game for the Lions. It also doesn’t help that Stafford has a bad ankle when playing against that Ravens front seven. He said he should be good to go, but his ankle got rolled just 10 days ago and he desperately needs fluidity in his legs because he isn’t a really good pocket passer and needs his legs to create big plays out of structure. The Lions can’t run the ball (bottom-3 run offense), but play against a top-10 run defense. The Ravens will absolutely shut down the run game and find strategies to make Stafford uncomfortable and create short fields for the Ravens run game and their offensive MVP Justin Tucker. Another game with a +1 or higher turnover advantage for the Ravens wouldn’t surprise me at all. Seeing a 23-16 kind of game in favour of Baltimore. Ravens -2.5 (-3 fine too) |
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12-03-17 | Chiefs v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 66 h 33 m | Show |
The Jets moved the ball pretty well against a top-10 defense last week (Panthers) and had some bad luck. Austin Seferian-Jenkins dropped the easiest TD he will catch in his entire career and another great TD grab was ruled incomplete which was weird. Both touchdown opportunities resulted in field goals. The Panthers had a fumble return touchdown and a special teams touchdown. The Jets actually outgained them by almost 100 total yards and 1.3 yards per play. Usually I think twice about taking a team late in the season that doesn’t play for the playoffs but this Jets team is a little bit different. Atleast that is what I read between the lines when listening to interviews. They are very young across the team and they are highly motivated. Todd Bowles gets them to play with passion. Before the season started, everyone (including myself) said they would be playing for the 1st overall pick and when you see them play, especially the defense, it seems they play with a chip on their shoulder. It isn’t enough to beat the better and way more experienced teams but they can play a lot of games close which they absolutely did. I don’t consider the Chiefs a good team right now and they come into this game in a downward spiral. I wasn’t high on them going into the season but they proved me wrong. Over the last few weeks they have finally been playing to how I expected them to play: bad defense, weak WR corps and a QB who produces great conservative stats but can’t rip coverages apart and prefers the screen pass everytime. The Chiefs surprised opposing defenses with their creative concepts early in the season. Defenses caught up and copied the Steelers gameplan – play zone, limit YAC and let Smith make reads from the pocket. Since the Raiders game on TNF, the Chiefs have scored an average of 14.5 offensive PPG in regulation and that includes the weird touchdown at the end of the first half at Dallas. Their defense didn’t look bad the last couple games because they played DEN, NYG and BUF. The current Jets offense is better than those three. Never expected I would say this but the Jets offense has a good matchup this week. The Jets will go run-first against the worst run defense in the league. I expect Forte and Powell to go off here because the Jets are one of the few teams that possess a reliable and respected deep threat – Robby Anderson is having a Pro Bowl season. He has a TD in each of the last five games. He is a great vertical receiver that can make adjustments at the catch point to catch tight window or off-target throws. The Chiefs have to account for that all the time on shot plays while also needing to send extra help into the box to boost a bad run defense. This is a simple numbers game and the Jets offense has a big advantage. The Chiefs have to rely on McCown mistakes here otherwise they are going to struggle to stop the Jets throughout major parts of the game. The Chiefs on offense don’t seem to do anything against a hard playing defense with two top-5 DROY candidates at FS and SS who are going to limit the Chiefs’ run and screen game. Jets should win this game and I will gladly take a +3. New York Jets +3.5 (+3 is fine) |
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12-03-17 | Bucs v. Packers OVER 45 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 1 h 4 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Over 45 |
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12-02-17 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin +6 | Top | 27-21 | Push | 0 | 49 h 45 m | Show |
The Buckeyes’ offense has rolled all season other than in games vs Oklahoma, Iowa and Michigan. They won a close one over Penn St but tallied 529 yards of offense. JT Barrett was a little banged up last week and did not play the entire game vs Michigan, but back-up Dwayne Haskins showed some nice flashes in relief of Barrett. They looked a bit out of sorts last week and things do not get any easier this week facing a defense that is ranked #1 in the FBS in total defense, run defense and pass efficiency defense. That is pretty awesome. Now, of course the trick is how to interpret those stats given the weak schedule that Wisconsin has played. It is not their fault, but it is a bit of a tricky read. It seems to us that Ohio St will not have much more success than they did last week vs Michigan. That game was on the road, but the Badger defense is at least a slight step up in our opinion. I do not think Barrett can hurt them consistently in the passing game other than on a few big plays. I'm also skeptical about the mobility of Barrett post surgery this week and his ability to do damage running the ball. If he can’t get himself rolling it takes a lot of punch out of the Buckeyes’ offense. It’s hard to imagine Ohio St getting into the 30's. Ohio St knows that Wisconsin will be coming at them with the power running game. Their run defense is ranked #4 in the Big 10, but Michigan had enough success with their top-2 RB's last week (22-122; C Evans, K Higdon) so it is not unthinkable that one of the best RB's in college football Jonathan Taylor can have a big game on Saturday. He has tallied over 1,800 rushing yards and 13 TDs in 2017. Once again, however, you have to read between the lines and determine how much of a downgrade to give those stats considering the schedule that they have played. Ohio St got carved up for 243 yards on the ground vs Iowa, but did a nice job vs S Barkley and Penn St. Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook is a capable QB, but he has limited weapons in the passing game and has tossed 13 INT's. The Badgers are #2 in the FBS in 3rd down conversions and time of possession. If they keep the chains moving and slow the game down it is going to be really tough for Ohio St to win the game let alone cover the spread. Wisconsin has an edge in the FG department as R Gaglianone has hit 12/14 this season including 2/2 from 40+ while Ohio St has only made 1/3 from 40+. The Wisconsin defense has not allowed 20 points all season. Northwestern scored 24, but that included a defensive score. It’s hard to know just how good this Wisconsin team is, but to be honest, Ohio St has not looked too powerful against the better defenses on their docket. This feels like a one-score game. Wisconsin +6 |
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12-02-17 | Miami-FL v. CLEMSON -9 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 57 h 0 m | Show |
This is going to be a tough assignment for the Hurricanes’ defense. Clemson is very balanced and can rip you apart with the run or the pass. Now they are not as deadly in the passing game like the 2016 team, but QB K Bryant has been pretty solid all season, other than when he was dealing with an injury. Bryant has thrown 12 TD passes and ran for another 10 scores while orchestrating the offense very well. They have a couple of solid RB's (T Etienne, T Feaster) and that makes their rushing attack pretty deadly when you add in the mobility of Bryant at QB. They have a deep stable of weapons at WR including veterans D Cain and H Renfrow. T Higgins has 262 yards receiving and a pair of TD's in his last two games (Citadel, S Carolina). Miami has a fast and disruptive defense, but they will be significantly challenged in this game due to the variety of weapons that Clemson has to offer. If Bryant distributes the ball effectively and they stay away from turnovers they will definitely be in great shape. Clemson is not turnover prone so it will be interesting to see if they stay that way playing against one of the most opportunistic defenses in college football. Miami was abused by a freshman run/pass sensation at Pitt (K Pickett – 193 pass, 60 rushing, 3 total TD's) and you have to think that K Bryant and the Tigers’ offense is an upgrade. QB M Rosier deserves a lot of credit for the way he played in their biggest games during the regular season. Of course, the tricky thing is that the majority of their tough games were at home, other than the win over Florida St. I worry a lot about the ability of Miami to run the football against Clemson who has the #14 run defense in the FBS. Miami managed just 45 yards on the ground vs Pitt and 59 vs UNC in their last two road contests. Given time, Rosier will be able to make some plays down the field, as Clemson has shown themselves to be human at times when facing decent passing teams. Miami will be without match-up nightmare TE C Herndon, but do have a talented and clutch WR in B Berrios along with a number of underrated receivers that could pop up and have a big game. A Richards has been a disappointment (dealing with injuries), but he is more than capable of stepping up on the big stage. The key will be pass protection. If Rosier has time – this game will be interesting. Clemson has only recorded more than a single sack in one of their past 4 games. Miami has been decent at keeping Rosier clean in 2017, but they did give up 4 sacks last Saturday. Having said that, without the threat of a running game, it will be really tough for Rosier to do enough damage. It’s a lot of points. But at the same time, it also feels like Miami is going to have a hard time getting things going against one of the most talented and well coached defenses in all of college football. The running game has had a hard time working outside of Miami and they cannot afford to be one dimensional. Clemson has had a bit of a difficult time putting teams away this season, but then again, we are probably just getting spoiled. Clemson has a lot more weapons and a more imposing defense. And big game pedigree. Miami has shown the ability to rise to the occasion but will need (+2) or better in turnover margin to stay in this game. Miami only played four games away from home; beat Duke (were outrushed 183-139), beat Florida St (only ran for 83 yards), beat UNC (59 yards rushing) and lost to Pitt (45 yards rushing). Given that they will not be able to run the ball this week and they are #121 in 3rd down conversions, it seems apparent that Clemson is going to have a lot of time with the ball and eventually wear down the Hurricanes’ defense. Clemson -9 |
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11-27-17 | Texans v. Ravens -7.5 | 16-23 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
The Ravens host the Texans on Monday Night Football and I expect a complete performance by the home team. The Ravens have a very clean bill of health coming into MNF Week 12, with likely only one starting scratch (Guard Eluemunor). All the other starters including Mosley, Suggs, Jimmy Smith and both starting Tackles look ready to go. With their starting unit in tack, this should lead to excellent execution on both sides of the ball. Already a very low penalized team in the NFL (6th least in 2017), look for the Ravens to be the ones applying all the pressure in what is sure to be a hostile environment. Knowing the Texans have really only Hopkins and Miller as offensive threats, the game plan will be to double Hopkins with Smith and Carr or Humphrey; and the run defense will then allow to get pressure in the backfield. They already rank 2nd in pass defense with 185.2 yards allowed per game and they have a league leading 16 interceptions. On offense don't sleep on Woodhead/Collins or Maclin/Wallace. Harbaugh will find a way to use his weapons against a very banged up Texans D. The Texans are up their with some of the most penalized teams (23rd of 32 teams, 32nd being the worst). What hurts them even more is the amount of injuries they have on both sides of the ball, which should lead to even more penalties. Will Fuller out leaves them without a true deep threat and as mentioned earlier, Hopkins is going to have a very difficult night with the double team. Savage finally picked up a win last week, but playing in Baltimore on MNF is a completely different beast. No Watt, no Mercilius, no Cushing, no Foreman, and even Clowney is coming in with a nagging ankle injury. Note: The Ravens haven't hosted a MNF game since 2012, so you know the crowd and players will be amped up. Also this is an official blackout game, not media, but team colours and fans - another huge motivation factor. I don't like the Texans (Savage) chances coming back from any kind of deficit. Once the Ravens get out to a lead I expect the Texans to have to abandon their game strategy and be forced to air it out against essentially the best pass D in the league. The Ravens should handle the Texans by at least 10. Ravens -7.5 |
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11-26-17 | Saints v. Rams -2.5 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 117 h 54 m | Show |
The Rams are in a crazy bounce back spot – they come off one of the toughest games possible, a road game at Minnesota. They were supposed to lose. The perception of them shouldn’t change off that 7-24 loss – they were simply outplayed in terms of matchups. They were able to hang tough until the 2nd half, had a fumble at the goal line and at the end their defense just got worn out, because the Vikes ran 73 offensive plays which is way above average. The Rams played three times against top-10 defenses (JAX, SEA, MIN) and scored 16, 10 & 7 offensive points. All three of those teams were able to create a disrupting pass rush to make Jared Goff feel uncomfortable in the pocket. The Vikings also completely shut down the run game after the first Rams drive, which put Goff into a lot of long passing situations. Everson Griffen didn’t register a sack against Andrew Whitworth, but he was able to push the pocket very often, which also led to a sack by Danielle Hunter. Goff still isn’t the greatest passer – he needs confidence in his pocket and open receivers. When a defense is able to condense the pocket and close a lot of space (as Vikes did with their athletic LBs), he is forced to fit balls into tight windows and that’s something he struggles with. The Saints come off a crazy comeback-win on overtime and the media is praising them just as they already won the Super Bowl. After Jay Gruden gave the ball back with some terrible decisions, Drew Brees threw a pick on the final drive but it came back because of a flag – the Saints shouldn’t have won that game. New Orleans are on a 8-0 win streak, but their schedule during that stretch becomes more and more weaker. Their defense looked awesome, but they faced a lot of the weaker offenses in the league. Now dealing with injuries, this is the perfect letdown spot for them. Over their last 5 games, they had games vs the Packers, Bears, Bucs, Bills and Redskins. 3 of their last 4 were at home. The Redskins were the best offense they faced since week 2 and Washington moved the ball at will on them, especially after Marshon Lattimore went down. It’s not sure whether Lattimore will play this week. Not being able to play a snap with that bad ankle sounds pessimistic. Lattimore really has been the key to that defense, because he can shut down the outside WR and the defense can shade their remaining coverage over to the middle which closes more space for other receivers. But even with Lattimore, the Saints don’t have a good matchup against the Rams – if Watskins is covered, the Rams have enough playmakers to create matchup problems for the rest of the Saints defense. Another big advantage for the Rams will be the ability to run efficiently on the Saints run defense that ranks bottom-5. The Saints lost DE Alex Okafor which can be described as a big loss. He has been a force against the run, producing 10 TFL and the third-highest run stop percentage in the NFL. He also added 4.5 sacks. His backup – rookie Trey Hendrickson – has seen the field mostly as a pass rusher and needs to refine his game. He will be a major downgrade from Okafor and won’t be a threat to Andrew Whitworth. Taking away a good run defender from a bad run D isn’t a good idea. So Goff can simply ignore the left side of the pass rush and focus on hitting receivers in space on shorter downs than last week, because the Rams will be able to move the ball on the ground. I am expecting a big game by the offense and a good-enough game from the defense to seal a home win in a very good spot. Rams -2.5 |
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11-26-17 | Panthers -5 v. Jets | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 65 h 12 m | Show | |
*Subscriber only pick* The fact that this division is so close now tells me the Panthers are not going to lay an egg here. They simply have to win this game and if they do, it shouldn’t be close. That being said, this play is more a fade of the Jets than a play on Carolina. The Jets offense is just bad despite playing the 32nd-ranked schedule. They beat the Jags with two big runs when their run defense was the worst in the league in the pre-Dareus era. They beat the Browns in maybe the flukiest win of the season. They didn’t cross 20 points in regulation in either game. It would surprise me if the Jets offense is going to do anything in this game. I think a turnover-fest is much more likely than them scoring close to 20 points. The Panthers just have to take care of business. They haven’t been a good offense year to date, but I am expecting them to find their groove coming out of a bye and Funchess has proven that he's capable of filling the Kelvin Benjamin void and should be able to continue that here on Sunday. I think they have enough potential to score in the 20s this week and might even cross 30 if the Jets produce some costly turnovers. I am seeing a 31-14 kind of game in favour of Carolina. Carolina Panthers -5 |
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11-25-17 | Washington State +10.5 v. Washington | Top | 14-41 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 25 m | Show |
The Huskies will try and use a balanced offense to move the ball on a very good Cougars stop unit. QB Jake Browning has done a good job this season guiding the offense but they have been much less explosive than they were in 2016. Browning has a fine 18-5 TD to INT ratio, but is going to fall well short of last season’s 43 TD pass tally. Myles Gaskin is a legit #1 RB (1,090 yds, 15 TD), but they only have one player with more than 400 receiving yards (D Pettis – 706, 7 TD). The Cougars are ranked #2 in the PAC 12 in yards per play defense, #2 in rush defense and #1 in pass efficiency defense (8-14 TD to INT ratio; 53% completions). It seems to us that the Huskies are going to have to work for everything they get especially considering that Washington St is #2 in the FBS in 3rd down defense (25%). If the OL can do a decent job of protection (last PAC 12 in sacks allowed per game) QB Luke Falk should have more than enough time to do some damage. Washington allows 63% completions and have only registered 6 INT's. The strategy on offense will be to get the ball out quickly and mix in some running plays. RB Jamal Morrow leads the team in rushing and averages over 6 yards per carry. 9 players have 200+ yards receiving so Washington will have to keep things in front of them and make tackles IN SPACE as they say on ESPN. This should be a really interesting battle as Washington is #1 in the PAC 12 in yards per play allowed. Washington has done a fine job vs the Cougars the past two seasons, but they have lost a lot of talent to the NFL since then AND will be without star LB Azeem Victor for this contest. These teams do not appear to be that far apart in talent level. You also have to think that Washington St has the motivational edge with the Huskies failing to reach any of their major goals for the season. It also cannot hurt the Cougars to be coming off a bye week whilst the Huskies are off back-to-back meat grinders vs Stanford and Utah. Washington State +10.5 |
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11-25-17 | Ohio State -11.5 v. Michigan | Top | 31-20 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 10 m | Show |
Ohio State -11.5 Full analysis coming soon. |
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11-24-17 | Ohio v. Buffalo +5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
It’s another year and no MAC Championship. Ohio controlled their own destiny to win the East, but lost to the wacky Akron Zips and their back-up QB. Can they get motivated for this one? The good news is that they have one of the best players in the MAC in QB Nathan Rourke (14 passing TDs, 19 rushing) who is going to be a handful for the Bulls. The Ohio run defense has been excellent this season (#2 MAC), but the pass defense has been really shaky. Buffalo QB Tyree Jackson has thrown for over 1,000 yards in his past three games since returning from injury and the OL is excellent at pass protection. That should mean plenty of time to get the ball to star WR Anthony Johnson (1,201 yds, 12 TD) and friends. The running game is also good enough to keep the Bulls balanced. It will come down to the Bulls run defense. They are #10 in the MAC when it comes to stopping the run, and the Bobcats can rip off a lot of rushing yards, even if RB D Brown does not go. 11th year senior AJ Ouellette is a legit #1 RB and the mobility of Rourke is a really tough for any defense to handle. The Bulls have a strong motivational edge and Ohio does not have the talent advantage that you might think based on win/loss records. The home team has won 7 straight in the series. Buffalo +5 |
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11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys UNDER 48 | Top | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 69 h 16 m | Show |
While the Chargers come off a 50-pt outing and the Cowboys got blown out by their divisional rival, the perception favours the Chargers and I agree with it. Zeke and Tyron Smith are the two most important offensive players along with Dak Prescott. Sean Lee is the most important defensive player. Missing those three would probably kill most teams in the league outside of Boston. I think Prescott still played as good as he possibly could, but the offense was simply over-matched by a good Eagles defense. We have two interesting coaching angles going for this game. Jason Garrett is the worst short-rest coach in the league at 2-14 ATS, while Anthony Lynn is a rookie head coach on a short week who comes off a big emotional win against his former team who didn’t want to have him as their head coach. While I cannot make many cases for the Cowboys as a side, I am making one for the total. The latter is simply too high. I expected it to be in the 44-45 range. I am struggling to see any of these teams scoring significantly north of 20. I expect the Chargers to come out a little bit flat after that huge win and Lynn not being capable of putting together a good offensive gameplan on a short week. Before playing against one of the current-worst defenses with a lot of short fields, they averaged 17.9 offensive PPG. DeMarcus Lawrence will be all over anyone who lines up at RT this week, forcing some throw aways by Rivers. I also believe that both teams are trying to attack the opposing defense on the ground which is gonna eat the clock. I think the Chargers’ ceiling in this game is in the low 20s. On the flip side, this Los Angeles defense is really good. Denzel Perryman being back helps that defense, but they are still vulnerable on the ground and that’s how the Cowboys are going to attack them, because their passing attack will be lost against this defense. In Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa, the Chargers are in “charge” of the Los Angeles “Nippers” which will be all over La’el Collins and Byron Bell in pass protection. The pass offense won’t work and I think their ceiling is in the high 10s, around 17 to 20. 23-17, 20-16 likely scores. I am seeing a low scoring affair and that’s why I'm playing on the Under. |
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11-23-17 | Vikings v. Lions | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 85 h 26 m | Show |
The Detroit Lions are the luckiest team in the NFL. They won another game in which they were outgained in total yards and yards per play, but they got a defensive touchdown off a fumbled snap. They now lead the league with five defensive touchdowns. On their game-winning drive against the Bears, Matt Stafford threw a pick that was dropped and later Matt Prater hit a 52yd field goal. Then Mitch Trubisky converted a long 4th down with his legs before Connor Barth missed the game-tying field goal. The way this Lions team keeps winning games isn’t sustainable. In the first game against the Vikes, they benefited from 3 fumbles and the Dalvin Cook injury. They won the last three games against the Vikings in fluky fashion and I believe they cannot do it a fourth time. The Vikings are so much better than the Lions. They had to switch QBs, play with a backup QB, lost their RB threat (still the most rush yards on the team) and still went 8-2 on a solid schedule. Without Bradford getting injured, they might be 9-1 or even 10-0 to this point. They don’t get outgained by worse competition, they just easily beat them. IMO, the Vikes are one of the best overall teams in the NFL at this point. Before the season started, Matt Stafford was 5-46 SU against teams who finished the season with a winning record. If you think the Panthers, Vikes, Saints and Steelers finish with a winning record, he is now 6-49 SU and 6-50 considering the Falcons a winning team. I disagreed with the line opening at pickem and immediately took the Vikes. The line got bet up very quickly and is now much closer to where it should be. It wouldn’t surprise me if this line reached -3 come Thursday before we will see some buyback on the Lions. I think the Vikings will put a beating on the Lions this time and make a strong case for one of the two top-seeds in the NFC. Minnesota Vikings PK'em |
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11-19-17 | Eagles -4 v. Cowboys | Top | 37-9 | Win | 100 | 71 h 56 m | Show |
Last year the Eagles got slowed down by the bye week, but the Cowboys are in trouble and everyone should focus on their injury report. Without Sean Lee, this defense gets shredded and gives up more than 5 YPC. Without Tyron Smith, Prescott faces pressure all game long. Without Zeke, the offense misses an important element. If the Eagles play up to their strengths, they should roll the Cowboys. Eagles -4 |
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11-19-17 | Patriots -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 33-8 | Win | 100 | 75 h 19 m | Show |
Not only do I believe that the Pats are 6.5 points better than the Raiders, I also believe they show them what a real playoff team is. The Raiders come off their bye, but they stay at Oakland all week to prepare for the game. The Pats played in Denver in high elevation and they stay the week in Colorado Springs (6,000 ft) in the Air Force facility to prepare for the game in Mexico (7,200 ft). That’s very smart by Bill Belichick and a major advantage for New England. The Raiders prepare for the game at 43 ft elevation. The slow Pats defense held 6 of 9 teams to 20 points or less and the other three teams (KC, HOU, CAR) have QBs who can create plays with their legs and play in offenses that can create in space. The Raiders are a more static offense with a QB who doesn’t want to hold the ball. Belichick will have his defense ready – we might see a lot of three-men rushes. Raiders defense is no matchup for the Patriots and their No. 1 ranked offense. Pats should roll a minor opponent on a neutral field with good preparation. Pats -6.5 it is. Patriots -6.5 |
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11-19-17 | Bengals +2.5 v. Broncos | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show | |
Subscriber pick. Bengals +2.5 |
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11-19-17 | Rams v. Vikings -2 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 56 m | Show |
Despite the Rams 7-2 record, I am skeptical regarding the rest of the season. The Rams played a soft schedule thus far. Here are their wins: blowout vs Colts with Scott Tolzien, close shootout win vs Niners, close shootout win vs Cowboys, “quality win” vs Jaguars with two special teams scores, blowout vs Cards, blowout vs the Giants who quit, blowout vs a decimated Texans team with Tom Savage. Their two losses are against a healthy Redskins team and the Hawks. If we consider the Texans a bottom-10 team without Watson, the Rams have 5 wins vs bottom-10 teams and 2 wins vs Dallas and Jaguars (14 points by special teams). They were actually outgained by total yards and yards per play in both games. That isn’t too impressive, is it? Now they go to the Bank, one of the toughest places to play in the NFL right now. The Vikings defense is impressive and is something the Rams haven’t faced this year besides Seattle and Jacksonville. In those games, the Rams scored 10 and 13 offensive points. If you count the fumble touchback by Gurley, they scored 17 and 13 vs two top-10 defenses. Purple Pain has held every team at 19 points or below at home this year and they would be unbeaten if they didn’t fumble the ball away 3 times vs Detroit in the game Dalvin Cook got hurt. This is a complete challenge for the Rams and I expect them to struggle the same way they struggled against the Hawks and Jaguars. If you watch the Rams offense, one thing gets obvious: Jared Goff almost never needs to throw into tight windows/coverage as his receivers are just schemed wide-open and he has a lot of time in the pocket. Whitworth is going to play against the candidate for DPOY, Everson Griffen. Griffen won’t win a lot of matchups, but he will send more pressure from Goffs blind side than the QB is used to get in other games. On the other side, Danielle Hunter has an intriguing matchup against Rob Havenstein who still struggles a bit in pass protection. The run defense of Minnesota is really good as well as their red zone defense. Jared Goff will be forced to make much more difficult throws than usual. A great matchup for the Rams is Robert Woods vs Trae Waynes, but Goff still needs to throw with anticipation under pressure to exploit that certain matchup consistently and I don’t think he is able to do that. I am seeing an equal offensive output as they had vs Seattle and Jacksonville. Vikings should just score enough on offense to win that game on the back of their defense. Vikings -2 |
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11-19-17 | Ravens -2 v. Packers | Top | 23-0 | Win | 100 | 72 h 55 m | Show |
This is a must-win game for the Ravens. They are 4-5 and one win away from the AFC wild card (Bills). Steelers, Patriots and Chiefs are too far away, Jaguars and Titans hold the tiebreaker against the Ravens. If they want to play in January, they gotta focus on the last wild card. They know that the Bills have a ceiling of 8-8/9-7 with games vs LAC, IND & MIA (2x) left. They simply have to win this game to put themselves into a good position for the wild card race. The Packers come off a surprising divisional win, whereas the Ravens are off their bye and have one day extra rest before the next game at Houston on Monday. John Harbaugh is one of the better post-bye coaches in the league, going 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS and winning by 8.9 PPG off a bye since being the HC in Baltimore. The final score in the Packers/Bears game last Sunday is a little bit misleading. The Bears missed Danny Trevathan badly against the run, they had bad tackling and produced stupid flags in the secondary which guided some big plays for GB and on top of that, they had a sure touchdown that Benny Cunningham fumbled into the end zone for a touchback. John Fox challenged the play and the touchback was the result. Without a challenge, they would have had the ball at the goal line. The Ravens live and die with their defense, but that should be enough to win here. The Ravens defense is stout on a very easy schedule. They have the ability to make below average offenses look bad. Their revamped secondary with Tony Jefferson, a healthy Jimmy Smith, rookie Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Carr has been playing very well. And Jimmy Smith just got much healthier during the bye, he missed lots of snaps over the last few games. NT Brandon Williams is arguably their most important player, but he was injured from weeks 3-6. This is a horrible matchup for a Packers offense that is bottom-10 material with Brett Hundley and just lost their leading RB Aaron Jones for 3-6 weeks and Ty Montgomery is banged up with a ribs injury. Even Hundley has a bad harmstring. Green Bay will struggle to run efficiently which sets up difficult passing situations for Hundley all game long. The Ravens secondary can just sit back and win their matchups against an average receiving corps. Mike McCarthy has shown us in 3 games that he can’t work out a game plan that maximizes the potential of his offense and surprises opposing defenses. He is completely dependent on Aaron Rodgers. I am seeing bad production and 2-3 turnovers by the Pack offense. This is a dream matchup for Baltimore. Yes the Ravens offense has struggled, however they are getting healthier and don’t face a good defense at Lambeau. Danny Woodhead comes back who is a nice addition in the short passing game, just for instance. Ravens have a lot of passes for negative yardage where Woodhead will help. Another key is that there are around 20 miles of winds expected on Sunday, so the game is going to be run-heavy and that’s where you love having the Ravens defense on your ticket. If their defense plays like they are supposed to do, the offense is going to have an easy job. The Ravens cannot afford to lose this game and I don’t believe they will. Ravens -2 |
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11-19-17 | Jaguars v. Browns UNDER 37.5 | Top | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 72 h 55 m | Show |
From a numbers standpoint, Browns were the right side last week, but they beat themselves again. 6 red zone trips and they managed to lose by 14 – wow. That coaching staff seems to be inept, that’s why I stop playing them even though I lean them again this week. 7.5 points are too many in a good matchup. I played the Under, as I believe it’s a much better option this week. First of all, the weather forecast says it’s gonna be around 21 mph winds with as high as 25 mph. Games with 20+ mph of winds result in an average scoring total of 35. The weather condition that affects totals the most is wind, not rain or snow. In snow or rain, offenses aren’t forced to change their gameplan, because we pitches favor the offenses. It’s easier to change directions forwards than backwards or sidewards. Without wind, passes have the same velocity and trajectory in wet conditions as in dry conditions. Some coaches just think they need to run more in wet conditions. With wind it gets tricky and the magic number is 20mph. When you throw the ball in heavy winds, you cannot be as accurate as normal, because the force of the wind has such a high impact on the trajectory of the pass. A few inaccurate throws because of wind can kill drives. The first windy game of the year, CAR@TB, ended 17-3 and both QBs combined for 39/70 (55.7%) for 348 yds for 4.9 YPA when their season average is 61% and 62% completions and 6+ YPA. Last year’s game PIT@CLE was a wind game and ended 24-9. QBs combined for 44/77 343 yards, 4.5 YPA. With the Jaguars and Browns, we get a matchup that has a high probability of ending below 37.5 even without wind. The Jaguars have a phenomenal defense and improved against the run with the addition off Marcell Dareus. The Jaguars have a run-first offense with a bad matchup against the best run defense in the league. Take away the run and the Jaguars offense will be completely limited this Sunday. But so will be the Browns defense also, because they won’t move the ball on the Jaguars, no way. It wouldn’t surprise me if we didn’t see an offensive touchdown this week and the game ends somewhere around 17-12 with a defensive score. Loving the Under here. Under 37.5 |
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11-19-17 | Chiefs v. Giants UNDER 46.5 | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 25 h 0 m | Show | |
Subscriber pick. Under 46.5 |
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11-18-17 | Florida International +14.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 35 m | Show |
QB Jason Driskel has been a stabilizing force leading the Owls to excellent offensive output in their past eight games (45,31,38,58,69,42,30,48). Driskel only has six TD passes to his credit, but does have the ability to hand the ball off to RB Devin Singletary who has 1,360 rushing yards and 22 TDs on the ground. FAU likes to run and then kill you with passing plays and that explains their excellent offensive production and horrible time of possession ranking (#126 FBS). FIU is not the kind of defense that is going to create a ton of problems for opposing offenses (#10 C-USA in yards per play allowed). This feels like a game in which the talent differential is closer than you think. Florida International +14.5 |
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11-18-17 | Rutgers v. Indiana UNDER 47.5 | Top | 0-41 | Win | 100 | 47 h 53 m | Show |
It looks like QB Richard Lagow will get the call this week to try and help the Hoosiers into bowl game contention. Lagow does not provide the mobility of Peyton Ramsey, but does have a powerful arm. Accuracy has been a bit of an issue (59%; 6 INT) but he has a really good receiving group. Indiana is ranked #12 in the Big 10 in rushing yards and #13 in yards per play and are going up against a a very capable Rutgers defense. The QB situation on the other side of the ball is rough (6 TD passes all year), but the good news is that the running game continues to work well. Their 1-2-3 RB combo has over 1300 yards and 12 TDs and should be able to do some work vs the Hoosiers (#9 Big 10 rush defense; #8 YPC allowed). Indiana will be able to shut down the passing game and are very good on 3rd downs (#15 FBS). It feels like tough sledding for Rutgers vs an underrated defense. The only teams ahead of Indiana in yards per play defense in the Big 10 are Wisconsin, Penn St, Michigan and Ohio St. Good company. Rutgers is giving max effort on defense and their offense is predicated on running the ball and limiting mistakes. Throw in the possibility of less than ideal weather (nothing horrible; but not balmy) and this feels like a decent under play. Under 47.5 |
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11-16-17 | Titans v. Steelers OVER 44 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
This is a matchup of two high-potential offenses with questionable defenses in a game with standard weather conditions. The Titans offense scores 24.9 PPG with Marcus Mariota as the starter which would rank 7th in the league (Matt Cassel started vs MIA). The Steelers defense ranks high by metrics and gives up only 15.2 PPG which ranks 2nd in the league. They seem to be much improved from last season, but they played an easy schedule and keep showing some big mistakes just like last week when corners blew their assignments in cover 2 and cover 3 on the long Colts touchdowns. Here are the offenses they have faced with their respective ranks in offensive scoring: Browns (29th), Vikings (6th) in their first game with Case Keenum, Bears (32nd), Ravens (27th), Jaguars (14th), Chiefs (5th), Bengals (30th), Lions (10th), Colts (24th). That’s not a tough schedule at all. Their defensive schedule ranks near last in the league in terms of strength. We can say they haven’t been tested a lot. This Titans offense is a tough challenge for this defense, especially since they give up 4.6 YPC (26th) on the 10th-toughest schedule. On an average schedule, the Steelers defense would probably give up around 17-20 PPG. The realistic ceiling for this Titans offense is 20-24 points at Pittsburgh. The production of the Steelers offense has been underwhelming, their 19.9 offensive PPG are far below expectations. With the personnel, they should be a 27ish PPG offense. But there is the same schedule-issue for the offense : they played a really tough schedule. Fortunately, they get to play one of the worse defenses in the league. The Titans recently played the Browns in a game in which they changed the QBs twice, the Ravens and Bengals, all three are bottom-five offenses in 2017. That’s why the perception is a little bit too high on them I guess. The Titans defense played an easy schedule and they rank 20th in scoring defense, giving up 22 defensive PPG. They aren’t good in stopping the run and their secondary is the weakest part. Logan Ryan, Adoree Jackson and LeShaun Sims can’t really match up with the Steelers – Pittsburgh should move the ball on the Titans. The ceiling for the Steelers is 24+ points in my opinion. I think if both teams run a lot without breakout runs and show red zone struggles, the score could stay below 44, but that scenario isn’t likely to me. I think the score should end atleast around 24-20 with potential for 35-24. This game should fly into the 50s. Over! Over 44 |
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