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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-03-19 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama +12 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 74 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on South Alabama. No outright victory, but I expect this one to be a lot closer than what this line/spread would suggest. Both teams are terrible, meaning that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as very real factor for the Jaguars tonight. The Georgia Southern Eagles are 1-3, while South Alabama is 1-4. Last year Georgia Southern went 10-3 and it beat EMU in its bowl game, but it lost all of its talent to graduation and now the Eagles are grounded. Georgia Southern’s only win this year has come against FCS Maine. Georgia Southern is also allowing 35 PPG thorugh its first three FBS contests. The Jaguars are only 1-4, but they’ve had the much more difficult schedule to this point. Note that South Alabama played Nebraska in its opener and only lost by 14 (put up 21 points of its own!) And the Jaguars other contests came against Memphis and tough road contests vs. UAB and ULM. Key Trends: - South Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with losing records. - The Eagles are only 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played on field turf. The verdict: I think Georgia Southern is on the ropes and I look for the home side to risk life and limb to pull off the upset tonight. That said, let’s grab all these points! |
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10-03-19 | Jets +101 v. Rangers | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Winnipeg Jets. The Jets have big expectations in 2019/20 after finishing second in the Central division last year. The Rangers’ expectations are a little more tempered after finishing seventh in the Metropolitan. The Jets, like all teams, are dealing with turnover. Last year Winnipeg averaged 3.29 GPG, and allowed 2.96. A big difference maker today is goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, who was 34-23-2 last year. Note that he faced the Rangers twice last season and beat them both times, allowing six goals on 72 shots. Last year New York averaged only 2.70 GPG, while allowing 3.26. Veteran Henrik Lundqvist is being wheeled out again to stand between the pipes for the Rangers, last year he was 18-21-10 and he’d go 0-1-1 vs. the Jets last season, allowing seven goals on 78 shots. The verdict: Despite missing some key pieces, Hellebuyck is the difference maker for me in this opener. Look for the Jets to pull off the minor upset on opening night! |
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10-03-19 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the under Cards/Braves. This should be an interesting series. This is also an interesting matchup on the mound to open this series, as neither Miles Mikolas nor Dallas Keuchel has had a great season and neither enters in good form. The winner of this series could very well hinge upon which of these two starters can regroup the quickest. Both teams have plenty of starting talent, but overall Mikolas and Keuchel have been huge disappointments. Each though has plenty of experience and both will be highly motivated. And I think this does indeed set up nicely from a situational stand point to be a classic “duel” to open this series. Key Trends: - Mikolas is in fact 2-1 with a 3.03 ERA over his last six starts, striking out 35 in his last 35 2/3’s innings of work. - Keuchel is 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA over his last eight starts, but enters having lost three in a row. The verdict: I think these two hungry starters fight deep into the latter frames, which is going to help in keeping this total well under the number; play the under! |
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10-02-19 | Sharks +155 v. Golden Knights | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 37 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the San Jose Sharks. No team has over achieved more in its first two years of existence than Las Vegas in my opinion. After reaching the Stanley Cup Final in its inaugural campaign, the Knights finished third in the Pacific last year, behind the No. 2 Sharks. San Jose knocked out the Knights in the first round in seven games last season. Both teams are dealing with injuries and suspensions to open the season, but I think the value lies with the high-flying visitors. The verdict: Note that San Jose is 7-1 in its last eight Western Conference road games as an underdog in the +125 to +165 range, while Las Vegas is only 2-5 in its last seven home games as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This one has “upset” written all over it! |
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10-02-19 | Canucks +115 v. Oilers | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 37 h 44 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Vancouver Canucks. I’m on three underdog plays on Opening Night. I think the Vancouver Canucks offer great value to upset the Oilers in their own barn. Edmonton struggled with consistency last year and expectations are much greater this season. But a winning culture isn’t something that happens immediately and I believe it’s the of opportunity that the equally as hungry visiting side needs. Vancouver has plenty of young talent and it’s fully healthy (Elias Pettersson, Bo Hovart and Brock Boeser.) Note that Vancouver goaltender Jacob Markstrom is 7-4-2 with a 2.71 GAA lifetime vs. the Oilers. Key Trends: Edmonton goalie Mike Smith is 12-10-2 with a 2.78 GAA lifetime vs. the Canucks, while Mikko Koskinen is 2-2-0 with a 3.26 GAA. Edmonton went just 2-4 in the preseason, while the Canucks were 4-4. The Oilers are just 1-4 in their last five home games, while Vancouver is 7-2 in its last nine in this series as a road dog in the +125 to +150 range. This one has slight upset written all over it! Analysis posted shortly. |
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10-02-19 | Rays v. A's -142 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -142 | 59 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Oakland A’s. Charlie Morton (16-6, 3.05 ERA) has been excellent this year. He also has great numbers vs. the A’s this season (1-0, 0.69 ERA) and he’s done well in Oakland throughout his career. He’s a mediocre 2-2 with a 4.60 ERA in seven postseason appearances though. The A’s Sean Manaea (4-0, 1.21 ERA) returned from a lengthy injury at the start of September and he’s been red hot ever since. Manaea has a 0.78 WHIP as well and he’s 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in three career match ups vs. Tampa Bay. The verdict: The A’s were bounced by the Yanks in the AL Wildcard last year. The home side has the option to move to Mike Fiers quickly if it has too as well. In my opinion, this line should/could in fact be larger. Great value on the A’s to bounce back after last year’s loss in this contest; lay it! |
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10-02-19 | Senators +250 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* play on the Ottawa Senators. Anything can happen on Opening Night right?! That’s what I believe can happen here for the over-priced Leafs. This is a situational play, based upon what I believe to be a hugely inflated line here for Toronto. Fredrick Anderson is coming off a great year, but the Senators have an equally as talented and even more experienced net minder in Craig Anderson, who comes into the year extra motivated after a sub-par season which was marred by injury. The verdict: I’m throwing the ATS trends/stats out the window for this one. The Senators went 3-2-1 in the preseason, while Toronto was 5-3. True Ottawa has plenty of young players, but it picked up key veterans in the offseason as well in Tyler Ennis, Artem Asimov and Ron Hainsey. As stated off the top, I think Toronto is over-valued on Opening night, which swings the pendulum in the Sens favor in my opinion! |
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10-01-19 | Brewers v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 35 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the OVER Brewers/Nationals. Both Brandon Woodruff and Max Scherzer are coming off victories to end the year and each has put together a fine campaign. But I think that the extra time off between starts for Scherzer (an entire week), will actually be a detriment here as I believe he comes out flat to start. The Brewers are without some key offensive players in the line-up today, but Milwaukee was the hottest team in the league down the stretch and I think that momentum gets carried over here. Washington hasn’t won a playoff game in 38 years. I’m expecting a fight from start to finish in this one. Key Trends: - Milwaukee has seen the total go over the number in 11 of its last 16 when playing with a day off. - Washington has seen the total go over the number in 14 of 22 already this season at home when the total is set between 7.5 and 8.5. The verdict: "We're going into a hostile environment, playing against a hot team with one of the best pitchers in the league," Milwaukee left fielder Ryan Braun told reporters. "Certainly, it will be a challenge, but we've had our backs against the wall all month. We've been counted out many times. We kind of like being in that position." With neither side backing down, I look for this total to sneak over this number in the latter frames; play the over! |
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09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yes Cincinnati has ALMOST won in both Seattle and Buffalo this year, but the team still comes to town 0-3. The Steelers are 0-3 as well and they’re dealing with significant injury, as QB Ben Roethlisberger The Steelers are down to backup Mason Rudolph, who I think will benefit greatly from playing at home this week. Andy Dalton has been the lone bright spot on the Bengals’ offense, as his line continues to be a weak point. The Bengals have also been poor in the secondary. The Steelers strength is on the defensive side and I think the unit is a difference maker in tonight’s contest. I’m also calling for a big day from RB James Conner, who to this point has been pretty quiet for Pittsburgh. The verdict: Throwing out the ATS stats for this one, and concentrating on the situation. I have a hard time seeing this Bengals offense mustering much of an attack in this hostile environment and I look for Conner to step up and deliver the goods; lay the short points! |
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09-29-19 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 38 | Top | 6-16 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the over Vikes/Bears. Two hungry division rivals collide on Saturday afternoon and I think that points are going to be plentiful. Chicago is 2-1 and the Vikes are 1-2. Both division rivals are equally as “hungry” for a victory here and I think it’s that sense of enormous focus and competition which will ultimately help in pushing this total above this very low number. Key Trends: - Minnesota is averaging 193.7 rushing yards per game, which is second in the league. - Chicago’s offense finally got untracked last week in the 31-15 road victory in the nation’s capital. The verdict: I think the Bears’ offense continues to progress and I believe the Vikes are going to be forced to match the pace of the home side tonight. This one has “shootout” written all over it in my opinion; play the over! |
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09-29-19 | Jaguars v. Broncos UNDER 39 | 26-24 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 37 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the under Jags/Broncos. Both teams have struggled with adversity early, both on and off the field. Denver’s vaunted defense has been terrible so far this season under the defensive minded head coach Vic Fangio, as it’s produced zero sacks and zero forced fumbles over the first three weeks. Clearly this lop-sided trend isn’t going to last forever and I think a big defensive performance is definitely in the cards now vs. the offensively challenged Jaguars. Gardner Minshew picked up a victory for Jacksonville vs. the sputtering Titans last week, but I think the rookie will have his hands full tonight in this difficult road venue. The Broncos offense has been just as bad, which doesn’t bode well facing this stacked Jaguars defense. Key Trends: The Jags have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 11 on the road. - The Broncos have seen the total go under the number in 12 of their last 18 as a favorite. The verdict: Expect a tough battle until the end and for this total to stay well below the posted number! |
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09-29-19 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +5 | 27-10 | Loss | -102 | 123 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Arizona Cardinals. This is “situational” play for me. Seattle is the “better” team on paper, but divisional contests are always the most difficult (especially on the road.) The Hawks also have a short week with a Thursday night game vs. the division leading Rams coming up. Seattle also comes in off its first loss of the year, getting hammered at home by a Drew Brees-less Saints team (note that the Hawks two other victories have come against current 0-3 teams.) The Cards are 0-2-1, but their season lies in the balance here. A victory today gets them right back into the mix. Key Trends: - Cards are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 after posting less than 250 total yards in their last game. - The Seahawks are interestingly just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven after posting more than 250 passing yards in their previous games. The verdict: I think the home side has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright; that said, let’s grab the points! |
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09-29-19 | Browns v. Ravens UNDER 47 | 40-25 | Loss | -120 | 120 h 14 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the under Browns/Ravens. Cleveland’s offense has been out of sync all season. Baker Mayfield and company have struggled for the most part this season. That’s not about to get any easier vs. this tough division rival (they split two games last year.) Baltimore is allowing only 20 PPG. The Browns’ though have been getting solid production on the defensive side of the field as well, conceding just 22 PPG. Key Trends: - Cleveland has seen the total go under in 17 of its last 27 as an underdog. - Baltimore has seen the total go under in 13 of its last 21 as a favorite. The verdict: The last thing the Browns can do is try to turn this into a “shootout” and expect to hang with the high-flying Ravens. Baltimore faces a stiff defensive task here today though and when you add it all up, I think this one does indeed have “defensive battle” written all over it; play the under! |
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09-29-19 | Redskins v. Giants -2.5 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 120 h 14 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the New York Giants. The Redskins are terrible. That’s mainly due to some key injuries, but I think they’ve already thrown in the towel after starting 0-3. The Giants though are 1-2 after they made a switch to rookie QB Daniel Jones last week vs. the Bucs. Jones looked great by going 23 of 36 for 336 yards and two TD’s, along with four rushes for 28 yards and another pair of TD’s. The Redskins were just manhandled on both sides of the ball by the Bears and I think they’re in for another long afternoon vs. this tough road division rival/venue. Key Trends: - Washington is interestingly just 1-4 ATS in its last five games on field turf. - New York is a solid 3-0-1 ATS in its last four vs. a club with a losing record. The verdict: I think Jones is a difference maker and I believe the rookie makes the most of this golden opportunity; lay the short points! |
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09-29-19 | Chargers v. Dolphins +16.5 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -108 | 120 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* play on the Miami Dolphins. Josh Rosen doesn’t have much to work with as the QB for the Miami Dolphins this year, but he’s not going to down without a fight this afternoon. Rosen and the Dolphins have absolutely nothing to lose. Miami is already looking ahead to next season after a rash of injuries de-railed its season. But more than anything I think the Chargers are vastly over-rated here. LA clearly has the better team on paper, but so far it’s been terrible to start the season with back-to-back losses. RB Melvin Gordon doesn’t come back to next week and I think LA’s struggling offense continues to sputter vs. this hungry home side. Key Trends: - LA is interestingly just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games. - Miami is interestingly 3-1 ATS in its last four vs. the AFC West (does this stat really matter? It certainly doesn’t hurt the Dolphins, that’s for sure!) The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, grab the points and expect a closer than predicted battle! |
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09-29-19 | Patriots -7 v. Bills | 16-10 | Loss | -100 | 120 h 13 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the New England Patriots. The Bills are 3-0. The Patriots are 3-0. I think that’s where the similarities end between the two teams. The Pats rolled to a 30-14 home win over the Jets last time out, while the Bills had to come from behind to knock off the Bengals 21-17. Both teams have been “lights out” defensively early, but New England leads the league by conceding just 199 yards per game. Key Trends: - Buffalo is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home. - The Bills are only 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. clubs with winning SU road records. - New England is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: Buffalo’s offense is still a work in progress, which doesn’t bode well facing this unbelievable New England defense. I’m banking on a blowout, lay the points with confidence! |
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09-28-19 | NC State +6 v. Florida State | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -104 | 102 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH-OF-THE-TITANS is on NC State. I think the visitors will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Wolfpack are 3-1 to start, while the Seminoles are 2-2 after beating Louisville at home last weekend. NC State can score, it averages 34.0 PPG, with RB Zonovan Knight leading the charge with 269 rushing yards and three major scores over three games. The WolfPack are also getting solid play from QB Matthew McKay, who has three TD’s and one INT. The run game is strong for the visitors as well with Ricky Person Jr, who will test FSU’s 91st ranked run defense, which allows 159 yards per game. FSU QB James Blackman has also been a manager for the most part, with the Seminoles offense centred around RB Cam Akers. Note though that NC State is allowing just 76 rushing yards per game this year, ranked 14th in the nation. Key Trends: - NC State is 5-1 ATS in its last six off a no-cover where it won SU as the favorite. - FSU is only 6-10 ATS in its last 16 at home. - The Seminoles are a poor 5-11 ATS in their last 16 after playing a conference game. The verdict: While I do think the outright win isn’t out of the question, in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these two hungry sides has its hands on the ball last! |
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09-28-19 | Minnesota v. Purdue +2 | 38-31 | Loss | -118 | 98 h 6 m | Show | |
My 8* ROUT on Purdue. Purdue is hungry here sitting at 1-2. Minnesota enters at 3-0, but I think it gets caught flat here vs. this desperate Boilermakers side. Both teams enter off their respective “bye weeks.” Last year Purdue got killed by 31 points in Minnesota, so the “revenge factor” is definitely in play here as well (it’s interesting to note that Purdue’s only win in this series over the last six years as come at home with Head Coach Jeff Brohm.) Key Trends: - Look closer at Minnesota’s 3-0 start. The Gophers have been South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern. Not exactly murderers row. - Last year the Gophers started 3-0 and then finished the year just 6-6. - Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan has six TD passes and two INT’s vs. poor competition and note that he’s already been sacked 11 times this year. The verdict: The home team is 10-4-1 ARTS the last 15 in this series. The Golden Gophers are a poor 1-4-1 ATS in their last six following a SU win. Play on the home side to expose Minnesota badly today in this revenge bounce back scenario! |
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09-28-19 | Virginia v. Notre Dame OVER 49.5 | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 98 h 1 m | Show | |
My 9* TOP TOTAL is on the over Virginia/ND. No. 18 Virginia is 4-0, while No. 10 Notre Dame is 2-1. The Cavs come to town off a 28-17 home win over ODU, while the Irish will be eager to return to form here after their tough 23-17 road loss to No. 3 Georgia. Virginia’s defense already has 20 sacks this season, but it was flagged seven times for 70 yards in penalties in its most recent victory over the Monarchs. The Irish though are an entirely different “animal,” especially at home. Notre Dame allows only 361.7 YPG, which breaks down to 204 rushing and 157.3 passing yards per game. UVA likes to throw the ball as well, as QB Bryce Perkins has 843 passing yards, six TD’s and four INT’s. ND QB Ian Book had 275 yards and a pair of TD’s in last week’s loss to the Bulldogs. These are two competent QB’s and I expect a battle. These are also two teams hungry for a victory here, so the overall situation definitely lends itself more to a “shootout” than a “chess match” in my opinion. Key Trends: - Virginia has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five following a two-game home stand. - ND has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of its last eight after playing its last game on the road. The verdict: Expect these two teams to fight tooth and nail and look for this total to soar over sooner, rather than later! |
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09-28-19 | USC +10 v. Washington | 14-28 | Loss | -109 | 98 h 40 m | Show | |
My 8* PUNISHER is on USC. The Trojans have nothing to lose this weekend after upsetting Utah last week. Washington is ranked No. 17, while USC is ranked No. 21 after beating the Utes. This line is so large because of the QB issue for USC, as third string Matt Fink, who led the Trojans to victory last weekend, will be getting the start here. Washington lost to Cal, but it’s since beat Hawaii and BYU. Washington has Jacob Eason under center this season and despite winning his last two, I think he’ll have his hands full in Pac 12 action. Key Trends: - Fink had 350 yards and three TD’s vs. Utah’s suffocating defense last week. - Washington head coach Chris Peterson on facing the USC Defensive line: "This is the best defensive line that we've seen, without question. California has good players, for sure, but just talent-wise, that's the strength of USC's defense. It's interesting that a true freshman is one of the guys who flashes and really shows up, and he does that.” The verdict: I think Washington’s stats are skewed due to its recent sub-par competition. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points! |
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09-28-19 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin OVER 46 | Top | 15-24 | Loss | -109 | 95 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the over Northwestern/Wisconsin. Northwestern is hungry here sitting at 1-2 and it knows it’ll have its hands full trying to hang with 3-0 Wisconsin. Northwestern was humbled by Michigan State last week, but it’ll have to keep the foot on the gas if it has any hope to keep up with surging Wisconsin, which just upset Michigan last week. Hunter Johnson has struggled under center for the Wildcats and his ineptitude has put added pressure on an already overtaxed Wildcats defense. And that’s bad news facing the Badgers, who won their first two games by a combined score of 110-0. Key Trends: - Northwestern has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last nine on the road. - The Wildcats have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 as a dog. - The Badgers have seen the total go over the number in eight of their last ten when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49 points. The verdict: I expect a wide-open affair from start to finish; this number is a little low, play the over! |
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09-27-19 | Astros v. Angels OVER 10 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -120 | 32 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* TOAL BLOOD-BATH is on the over Astros/Angels. I think these suspect starting pitchers get the hook early and as a result, I believe this total is going to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. Houston sees Jose Urquidy (1-1, 4.63 ERA) toe the slab and he’s faced the Angels twice this year, including a start in July in which he conceded five runs off eight hits over two innings. Urquidy will be opposed by the erratic Patrick Sandoval (0-3, 5.25) who gae up three runs over three innings in his lone start vs. the Astros this season. Key Trends: - The Astros have seen the total go over the number in 13 of its last 21 on the road when the total is set between 9 and 10.5. - The Angels have seen the total go over the number in 11 of their last 17 home games when the total is between 9 and 10.5. The verdict: Look for these two confirmed “gas cans” to get the hook early and as mentioned off the top, then look for this total to fly over the posted number sooner, rather than later! |
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09-27-19 | Penn State v. Maryland UNDER 60.5 | Top | 59-0 | Win | 100 | 84 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* play on the under Penn State/Maryland. I think Penn State comes out a bit flat to open after its bye week and because of that, I look for this total to sneak below the number once it’s all said and done. Back on Sept. 14th the Nittany Lions escaped a low-scoring 17-10 battle with Pitt and while this one might produce a bit more offense, I’m not expecting by much. And that’s because Maryland ALSO comes out of its bye week and it’s looking to rebound though after it fell 20-17 to Temple. The home side will also be out to avenge a 38-3 loss to the Nittany Lions last year. When I make my pick on a total (in all sports), I like to look at the overall “situation” that each team finds itself in coming into that contest and in my opinion, from a situational stand point I believe this one definitely sets up as more of a “chess match,” than a wide-open shootout. Key Trends: - Penn State has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 14 vs. the conference. - Maryland has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. The verdict: Penn State contained Maryland’ RB Anthony McFarland Jr. last season and I predict a duplicate performance here as well. This number is just a shade high, play the under! |
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09-27-19 | San Jose State v. Air Force UNDER 56.5 | 24-41 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 10 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the under San Jose State/Air Force. Air Force comes in off a loss, while San Jose State comes in off a win. The Spartans upset Arkansas 31-24 last week and an immediate return to mediocrity appears imminent to me as San Jose plays its second straight on the road. The Falcons on the other hand fell 30-19 at Boise State last Friday. Overall Air Force only posted 242 rushing yards, which was 100 under its season average entering that contest. Last week the Spartans held the Razorbacks to 131 yards on 32 carries with no TD’s, so this is going to be an interesting “chess match” in my opinion. Key Trends: - San Jose State has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 14 as a road dog. - Air Force has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four following a two-game road trip. The verdict: As a situational handicapper, I think this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring “under!” |
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09-27-19 | Braves +100 v. Mets | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on the Atlanta Braves. I think that Dallas Keuchel (8-7, 3.59 ERA) and Marcus Stroman (9-13, 3.23) are a “wash,” but I look for the Braves to keep the foot on the gas in the final series of the regular season. The Mets are eliminated and the Braves have locked down the second-best record in the NL, but clearly the visitors will want to keep their momentum high as they head into that important playoff contest. Key Trends: - Keuchel has faced the Mets twice this year and so far he’s thrown 13 scoreless frames vs. them. - The Mets are just 2-7 in their last nine National League home games as a favorite in the -105 to -130 range. The verdict: Stroman has been a solid presence for the Mets since coming over from the Jays, but I’m going to give the advantage to Keuchel here, as he looks to tune up his performance for what will hopefully be a deep playoff push. Play on the Braves! |
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09-27-19 | Duke v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -115 | 83 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* play on Virginia Tech. Both teams are 2-1. The Hokies have looked shaky so far this season, losing to Boston College in Week 1 (five turnovers) and then struggling to get past ODU and FCS Furman. Duke meanwhile has looked a bit better, getting smashed by Alabama in its opener, followed by lop-sided wins over North Carolina A&T and MTSU. The Hokies have a big opportunity today on home field though to reverse their early struggles and I believe they step up and do just that. Note that VT has won three straight in this series. Duke’ QB Quentin Harris has looked sharp in the early going, but his numbers are skewed over the last two games facing such poor competition. The Hokies sport the 88th ranked run defense, which matches up well against Duke, which averages 181 rushing yards per game thus far. Duke has given Harris plenty of protection so far, allowing only one sack to this point, but note that the Hokies rank 17th in the country with 3.33 sacks per game. The home side turns to Ryan Willis to air it out today to Tre Turner and Tayvion Robinson. Key Trend: - Duke has only forced three turnovers this year. The verdict: I’m unconvinced that Duke can keep up this pace and I think that its young QB finally takes a step back today vs. the more experienced home side and in this difficult road venue; lay the short points! |
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09-26-19 | Eagles v. Packers OVER 46 | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 84 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the over Eagles/Packers. So far every Thursday night NFL game has fallen well below the posted number. That includes on Opening Night as well when the Packers played. But I believe that trend finally changes this week, as I believe the desperate 1-2 Philadelphia Eagles will be out to push the pace from start to finish. Yes Green Bay’s defense has been fantastic to this point (allowing just 11.7 PPG thus far) and yes the Eagles have injuries on the offensive side of the ball, but I still don’t think that’s going to matter. Philadelphia’s season is on the line tonight and I expect Carson Wentz to open things up early and often. Of course, Green Bay has also looked fantastic on the offensive side of the ball this year and I think it’s balanced attack is going to run roughshod over this suspect Eagles’ defense. Key Trends: - Philly has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six road game when the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. - Green Bay has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four off a home victory by ten points or more. The verdict: Green Bay is desperate to move to 4-0 and the Eagles are desperate to avoid a 1-3 hole. This one has “shootout” written all over it! |
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09-26-19 | Navy v. Memphis OVER 55 | Top | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 60 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* NCAAF TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the over Navy/Memphis. After scuffling the last couple of season, the Midshipmen are out to prove the doubters wrong this year. Navy is averaging nearly 380 yards per game on the ground and while the defense has looked good early, that’s mainly due to the level of competition. Memphis has also looked good on the defensive side of things, but once again that’s been because of early competition in my opinion. Now that AAC play is here, I think these defensive units have a much more difficult time. Each has looked good on the offensive end in the early going and there’s no reason not to think that won’t carry over in my opinion either. Key Trends: - Navy has seen the total go over the number in 13 of 19 this year as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range. - Memphis has seen the total go over the number in 11 of its last 16 at home. - The Tigers have seen the total soar over in four of their last five off a road victory. The verdict: A great situational play as I’m expecting a wide-open affair from start to finish; play the over! |
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09-25-19 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 9 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL CLASH-OF-THE-TITANS is on the UNDER Astros/M’s. I think that runs will be at a premium in this one, due mainly to the fact that I have a hard time seeing the home side mustering much of an offensive attack vs. the Astros Zack Greinke (17-5, 3.05 ERA). Greinke is 7-1 with a 3.48 ERA since coming over from Arizona and he’s 6-1 with a 2.05 ERA in 13 career appearances vs. the M’s. Key Trends: - Houston has seen the total dip under in 15 of 24 already this season on the road when the total is either 9 or 9.5. - Seattle has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 20 as a home dog of +125 or higher. The verdict: The Astros won 3-0 in yesterday’s series opener and everything points to a similar final outcome here as well in my opinion. As stated off the top, based entirely on the recent form of Greinke and his long-term dominance he’s had vs. the M’s, I’m playing the under! |
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09-25-19 | Red Sox -154 v. Rangers | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on the Boston Red Sox. Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. Each side plays out the remainder of the season, but I believe that Rick Porcello (13-12, 5.56 ERA) and the defending champs are the correct call in this one. The home side see Kolby Allard (4-1, 4.25) toe the slab. Porcello is a free agent next year, so he’s looking to close out strong. Note that the Red Sox’ veteran was extremely sharp in his last contest, holding the Rays to just three hits over six scoreless frames of work, while also striking out six. Allard has a 2.60 ERA in five road contests and a 7.36 ERA in three starts at home for the Rangers. Key Trends: - Boston is still 50-27 vs. clubs with losing records this year (Texas assured a third straight losing season now.) - Texas is just 13-30 (-12.1 units) in its last 43 vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: I love Porcello to dominate his rookie counterpart and I do in fact believe that this line could/should be much larger; play on the Red Sox! |
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09-24-19 | Brewers v. Reds -133 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -133 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this is a bigger mismatch on the mound and at the plate than what this line would suggest. The visitors see Julio Teheran toe the slab, while the home side counters with Danny Duffy. The pitchers: Teheran (10-10, 3.55 ERA) is 0-2 lifetime vs. the Royals, despite a minuscule 0.69 ERA spanning 13 frames of work. Duffy (6-6, 4.30) is coming off a strong outing and he’s enjoyed success vs. the Braves in the past, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. The pick: The Braves still have a mathematical shot at catching the Dodgers, so I don’t expect them to let off the gas over this two-game interleague series. Just the opposite in fact. Look for ATL to come in focused on the task at hand and lay the reasonable mid-sized price (note the Royals swept a two-game series in ATL in July, so the Braves also play with revenge here.) 10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves. |
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09-24-19 | Twins v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Twins/Tigers. I have a hard time seeing the anemic Tigers mustering much of an offensive attack today vs. Twins starter Jake Odorizzi (14-7, 3.59 ERA). The home side sees Spencer Turnbull (3-15, 4.66) toe the slab. Odorizzi most recently allowed two runs over six innings in an unfortunate 3-1 loss to the White Sox (note that in 11 career starts he’s 5-1 with a 3.05 ERA vs. the Tigers.) Turnbull earned a no-decision vs. the Tribe in his last start despite allowing only one run over five frames of work. Key Trends: - Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four after allowing seven runs or more over two straight games. - Detroit has seen the total dip below the posted number in 17 of its last 27 at home when the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5. The verdict: I think these starters battle deep, which will in turn help in keeping this total under the number; play the under! |
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09-23-19 | Cardinals -124 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 30 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the St. Louis Cardinals. This is a big game/series. Adam Wainwright (13-9, 3.83 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side counters with Alex Young (7-4, 3.27). St. Louis clinched a playoff berth with yesterday’s victory, but it’ll keep the foot on the gas as the Brewers are still surging towards the finish line as well. Also note that St. Louis can play spoiler here, as a loss today will eliminate Arizona from contention. Key Trends: - Wainwright is 4-0 in his last four starts, having given up just two runs over his last 27 frames of work. - Wainwright is 9-5 with a 2.70 ERA in 16 career appearances vs. the D-Backs. - This is Young’s first ever matchup vs. St. Louis. The verdict: Young’s been great and Arizona’s season hangs in the balance, but the Cards have the advantage across the board here and I look for them to deliver the knock out blow; lay the short price! |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +4.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH is on the Washington Redskins. So far the Bears’ offense has looked terrible. The defense has been decent, but the level of competition to this point is suspect in my opinion. Washington comes in at 0-2 and desperate for a victory. The Redskins have been horrible defensively, but the offense has in fact been above average (24.0 PPG, ranked 10th). With their season on the line, I think the home side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Key Trends: - Chicago is 7-9 ATS on the road in its last 16. - The Bears are only 1-2 ATS in their last three after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. - Washington is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss vs. a division rival. The verdict: Washington QB Case Keenum has 601 passing yards, five TD’s and no INT’s. Chicago QB Mitchell Trubisky has been bad overall this season, throwing for just 120 yards last week. I’m banking on the “hungrier” team getting the job done tonight; grab the points! |
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09-23-19 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the OVER Marlins/Mets. The Mets’ wildcard hopes are dwindling, but they can only play one game at a time. This is a favorable matchup to open the new week obviously. The Marlins won’t be rolling over here as they’ll be looking to play spoiler. The visitors go with Caleb Smith (9-10, 4.24 ERA), while the home side counters with Steven Matz (10-9, 4.16.) Matz was crushed in his most recent outing, allowing seven runs over four innings in a 9-4 loss to the Rockies. Smith earned a victory his last time out despite not being at his best, allowing four runs over five frames in his team’s eventual 12-6 win over the D-Backs. Key Trends: - Miami has seen the total go over the number in 23 of its last 33 vs. southpaws. - New York has seen the total go over the number in 40 of 63 vs. division opponents this season. The verdict: I think these suspect starters get chased early; play the over! |
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09-22-19 | Broncos v. Packers OVER 42.5 | Top | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the OVER Broncos/Packers. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully as a higher-scoring “shootout.” Denver is 0-2 and it’s defense has looked suspect. The offense has struggled as well. Joe Flacco and company won’t be holding anything back here though as they try to salvage their season and avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole to open the season (no team in NFL history has won the Super Bowl after starting 0-3.) Green Bay has looked impressive on the defensive side of the ball during its 2-0 start, but I think the unit gets tested today by this now desperate Broncos team. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and company appear to be firing on all cylinders offensively early as well. As stated off the top, from a situational stand point, this one has high-scoring shootout written all over it. Key Trends: - Denver has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four after scoring 14 points or less in its last game. - GB has seen the total soar over in its last four home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. The verdict: Expect a wide open affair from start to finish in this one; play the over! |
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09-22-19 | Ravens +7 v. Chiefs | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Baltimore Ravens. I think Baltimore is the better all around team. KC has an amazing offense and it has the advantage of playing at home, but I’m unconvinced of the Chiefs’ defense still. Both teams have played sub-par competition so far to get to 2-0, but the Ravens clearly have the offensive fire-power to “hang” with any team in the league. Combined with what I believe to be a superior defensive unit and special teams, I do indeed think we’re getting a gift with the ample points here. Key Trends: - Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as an underdog. - KC is interestingly just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games. The verdict: Of course I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, but in the end I’ll recommend to grab as many points as you can; play on the Ravens! |
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09-22-19 | Bengals +7 v. Bills | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Cincinnati Bengals. I’m basing this pick primarily on the “situation.” Cincinnati is still without main WR AJ Green and the Bengals come to Buffalo desperate sitting at 0-2. The Bills enter content after their surprising 2-0 start and while Josh Allen has looked sharp so far for Buffalo, I’m unconvinced still to this point. Last week the Bengals ran into a red hot 49ers team, but they looked pretty good in their 21-20 loss in Seattle in Week 1. I expect another hard-fought battle in Buffalo vs. the over-achieving Bills. Key Trends: - The Bengals are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog. - The Bills are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after a win by 14 points or more. The verdict: With their season on the line, I think the Bengals will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire; grab the points! |
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09-22-19 | Falcons v. Colts UNDER 47 | 24-27 | Loss | -102 | 71 h 17 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the under Falcons/Colts. It’s a big game for both teams, who enter at 1-1. The Colts have looked decent with Jacoby Brissett under center and he’s been leaning heavily on RB Marlon Mack, who already has 225 rushing yards. The Falcons bounced back last week with an impressive 24-20 defensive victory over the Eagles. So far the Falcons ground game has stalled, so we can expect the visitors to be trying to establish that early and often in this one. And that’s exactly what I’m expecting from both of these non-conference sides today as each looks to control the tempo and limit mistakes. Key Trends: - Atlanta has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 19 on the road. - The Falcons have the total dip under the number in 11 of their last 17 when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49 points. - Indianapolis has seen the total go under the number in ten of its last 16 at home. - The Colts have seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of their last 12 following a divisional contest. The verdict: This one has the feel of a “chess match.” Play the under! |
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09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings -8.5 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 71 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Minnesota Vikings. The Raiders got smoked by the Chiefs at home last week. Oakland hits the road for the first time this year. I think the Raiders get caught looking ahead to the next daunting few weeks, which sees them play only one home game in that span, and that’s when they’re in London, England. Oakland suffered a big blow to its secondary when Johnathan Abram went out in Week 1 vs. Denver. Last week the Raiders’ secondary looked weak against Patrick Mahomes and I think it’ll struggle here too in this difficult road venue. Minnesota looked great in Week 1, but poor in Week 2 at Lambeau. A little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered for Kirk Cousins and company though in my opinion. Dalvin Cook makes Minnesota’s offense dangerous, as he already has 265 total rushing yards. Key Trends: - Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss. - Oakland is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven on the road. The verdict: The Vikes are holding opponents to 7-23 on third downs so far and they’re allowing 108.5 rushing YPG. Minnesota also has six sacks for 50 yards. I have a hard time seeing the Raiders slowing down, or scoring against the Vikings today; lay the points! |
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09-22-19 | Jets v. Patriots OVER 43.5 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 71 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the over Jets/Patriots. It’s do or die for the Jets, as an 0-3 start would be the end of their Super Bowl hopes, and likely a shot at the playoffs as well. New England would love nothing more than to put the final nail in the coffin with a big beatdown victory as well in my opinion. When you add it all up, I think this number is much too low. New York will throw caution to the wind obviously as it’s down to its third string QB, so expect Luke Falk to be given the green light to air this one out early and often. This works both ways of course, as the Pats’ defense is extremely adept at putting points on the board as well. Look for Tom Brady and company to put on a clinic as well in front of the home town crowd. Key Trends: - The Jets have seen the total soar over in five of their last six after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games. - The Patriots have seen the total go over the number in four of their last five after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. The verdict: I truly feel this one has a legitimate shot at going over the number by half time; play the over! |
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09-22-19 | Dolphins +23 v. Cowboys | 6-31 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Miami Dolphins Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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09-21-19 | Colorado v. Arizona State OVER 48.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE is on the OVER Colorado/ASU. Both teams are hungry for a victory and I believe each is going to push the pace from start to finish. ASU is fresh of a monumental upset for the Spartans and it has to be feeling confident here as well as the last time these team’s met in Tempe, ASU picked up the 41-30 victory. That said, Colorado posted the seven point victory in this matchup last year at home, with three passing TD’s from its QB Steven Montez. Colorado won’t be lacking for motivation here either after coming up short to Air Force last time out. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe that this one sets up as a high-scoring “shootout,” rather than a low-scoring “chess match.” Key Trends: - Colorado has seen the total go over the number in 12 of its last 15 off an upset loss as a home favorite. - ASU has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 11 of its last 17 off an upset win as a road underdog. The verdict: The opener of Pac 12 play for both and I expect some fireworks; play the over! |
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09-21-19 | Nebraska v. Illinois +13.5 | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 55 h 47 m | Show | |
My 9* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on Illinois. The Fighting Illini come in hungry after suffering their first defeat of the season in a 34-31 set back to EMU on a last-second field goal. Nebraska comes in a tiny bit complacent here in my opinion after its 44-8 drubbing of NIU. Huskers’ QB Adrian Martinez has 725 passing yards to open the year, but I think he’ll have a more difficult time moving the ball on the road in Big Ten play. Illinois beat Akron 42-3 and UConn 31-23 and has looked competitive in every game thus far. Last week QB Brandon Peterson had 297 yards passing with two TD’s and an INT. Also note that Illinois RB Reggie Corbin had 144 yards ion 18 carries. Key Trends: - Nebraska is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite, including only 1-2 ATS this year. - Illinois is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home dog in the 10.5 to 14 points range. The verdict: I’m expecting another dog fight from the Illini today; so grab up as many points as you can! |
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09-21-19 | Old Dominion +29 v. Virginia | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 54 h 38 m | Show | |
My 8* SPECIAL is on ODU. After beating the Seminoles last week, I think that UVA gets caught “looking past” its lowly opponent today. Last year ODU was 4-8, but it’s looked more competitive this season. Last week ODU faced the Hokies and it kept it relatively close. Overall the Monarchs are allowing only 26 PPG, but managing just 20.6. ODU runs the ball twice as much as it passes, but facing a team which does the same helps the visitors here in my opinion. Bryce Perkins has been great in the early going for UVA, but as mentioned off the top I think this sets up as a natural “letdown” spot for the home side after last week’s big upset victory. Key Trends: - ODU is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring three points or less in the first half of its last game. - Virginia is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a home favorite of 21.5 to 28 points. The verdict: Old Dominion won’t be rolling over here. The Monarchs’ strength on defense makes “the points” the correct call in this matchup; play on ODU! |
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09-21-19 | Central Florida -11 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 34-35 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on UCF. UCF started last year 3-0 and it enters this one with a 3-0 record as well. I believe the Knights keep the foot on the gas here and I have a hard time seeing the Panthers keeping pace down the stretch. And if recent history is any precedence, then UCF has to be loving its chances as it destroyed Pitt last year 45-14. The Knights’ offense has been impressive, averaging 50 PPG so far. Last week the Knights smashed Stanford 45-27. Pittsburgh stumbled down the stretch last year to finish 7-7 and it’s also stumbled out of the gates this season by going 1-2. Last week the Panthers feel 17-10 at Penn State. Key Trends: - The Knights allow only 13.7 PPG The verdict: UCF QB Dillon Gabriel went 22 of 40 for 347 yards, four TD’s and zero INT’s last week. All four TD passes went to four different players. Pittsburgh has gotten decent play from QB Kenny Pickett, but I’m not reading too much into last week’s stats. Look for the Golden Knight’s smothering defensive play to be too much for the home side to handle down the stretch; lay the points! |
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09-21-19 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Ohio | 45-25 | Win | 100 | 49 h 40 m | Show | |
My 9* BEWARE OF DOG play is on Louisiana Lafayette. Outright victory? Of course it’s not out of the question, but I think that grabbing the points is the savvy move in this one. Ohio enters off back-to-back losses, while the Ragin Cajuns enter off a 77-6 win and average 590.3 YPG of offense (currently fourth in the country). The Cajuns limited FCS opponent Texas Southern to just 236 yards last week, while racking up 748 of their own. The Bobcats posted an easy 41-20 win over Rhode Island in their opener, but they’ve since lost two straight, falling 20-10 to Pittsburgh and 33-31 to the Herd last weekend. QB Nathan Rourke was a stand out in a losing cause for Ohio last week, throwing for 215 yards and three TD’s, while also running for another 118 yards. Key Trends: - Louisiana Lafayette is 5-1 ATS in its last six on the road. - The Cajuns are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference contests. The verdict: I think this is a tight game. I understand that the Cajuns’ early numbers are skewed, but the offense can unquestionably move the chains; for all the reasons listed above, I’m grabbing the points! |
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09-20-19 | Air Force v. Boise State OVER 55 | Top | 19-30 | Loss | -109 | 82 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the over Air Force/Boise State. These are two teams “firing on all cylinders” to open the season and I look for that momentum to translate into offensive production on the field of play this evening. Both teams are undefeated with victories over Power 5 programs already on their resumes. These are two very productive offenses, but each gets the job done differently. The Broncos are going to have a hard time slowing down the Falcons’ rushing attack, which ranks second in the country at 353.5 YPG (it has 22 runs of ten or more yards.) Boise State QB Hank Bachmeier has a stiff task tonight facing this revamped Air Force defense, but he has a pair of solid backs in Robert Mahone and George Holani to keep the visitors honest. I see both sides pushing the pace and from a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up as more of a high-scoring “shootout,” than a low-scoring “chess-match.” Key Trends: - The Falcons have seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of their last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. - The Broncos have seen the total go over the number in six of their last eight off a SU home victory. The verdict: As mentioned off the top, I expect a wide open pace from start to finish; play the over! |
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09-20-19 | Giants v. Braves -179 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on the Atlanta Braves. The Braves won a tight one 5-4 last night vs. the Phillies and with a victory tonight they’ll clinch the division title. While I don’t normally ever recommend laying juice of this size on a play of this magnitude, in this case I feel the situation absolutely calls for it. The visitors see the erratic Tyler Beede (5-9, 5.02 ERA) toe the slab, while the home side goes with Mike Foltynewicz (7-5, 4.80). Foltynewicz has arguably been the best pitcher in all of MLB over the last two months, going 5-0 with a 2.76 ERA over his last eight games. Beede’s been decent of late, but note that he’s a poor 4-5 with a 5.79 ERA on the road this season.) Key Trends: - San Francisco is just 22-32 this year after three or more straight road games. - Atlanta is 43-23 as a home favorite. The verdict: I think the Giants throw in the white flag early here and look for Foltynewicz to continue his recent red hot form; lay the price with confidence! |
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09-20-19 | Phillies v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 101 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the under Phillies/Indians. The Phillies playoff hopes are on the line and the Indians are still vying for position. For a number of different reasons, I believe that the opener of this interleague contest will fall under the number once it’s all said and done. The visitors go with Drew Smyly (4-6, 6.22 ERA), while the home side sees Shane Bieber (14-7, 3.26) toe the slab. The Phillies offense lost Jean Segura to injury in yesterday’s 5-4 setback to the Braves. But while Smyly’s overall record isn’t anything to write home about, the Phillies have to be feeling decent about a bounce back here as Smyly has been sharp since coming over to his new team, going 3-1 with a 4.14 ERA since the All Star break. Bieber has been a steady bright spot for the Tribe all year and I expect him to go deep as well. Key Trends: - Philly has seen the total go under in three of four already this year as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range. - The Indians have seen the total go under the number in 21 of 34 at home when the total in the contest is set between 9 and 9.5. The verdict: I think these starters battle deep; play the under! |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -123 | 59 h 10 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Titans. After Nick Foles went down with injury, the Jaguars hopes of a playoff berth went down the toilet too. Now 0-2 to open the year and down to backup Gardner Minshew under center, I believe that the Titans bounce back from their inexplicable 19-17 loss to the Colts last weekend. Back-to-back losses to divisional opponents, especially one which has so many injuries to key players (CB AJ Bouye, WR Marqise Lee, DE Yannick Ngakoue and LT Cam Robinson.) The Titans annihilated the Browns in Week 1 and I believe we’ll see a return to form here. Key Trends: - Tennessee is 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss. - The Titans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 after one or more straight losses. - The Jags are a poor 7-8 ATS in their last 15 at home. - Jacksonville is only 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a divisional contest. The verdict: I think the Titans are the better team in all three phases and I don’t see them looking past this opponent after last week’s “brain fart.” Lay the short points! |
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09-19-19 | Houston +5 v. Tulane | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -104 | 59 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Houston. It’s the opening of AAC play for both teams. Houston is just 1-2 after back to back losses to two tough opponents in Oklahoma and Washington State. D’Eriq King has been relatively quiet so far, but I think that’s been because of the level of competition to open. The Green Wave have made significant strides and enter at 2-1, but I think they’ll have a hard time containing King and company and this Cougars offense which finished No. 16 in passing in the nation last year. Justin McMillan is a legitimate dual threat back for the Green Wave, but I don’t expect the Cougars to give up as many yards to him as they did to Jalen Hurts. Key Trends: - Houston is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 when playing with six or less days rest. - Tulane is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a home win by 17 points or more. The verdict: Tulane lacks the scoring punch of Houston and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I think this one comes right down to the wire; grab the points! |
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09-19-19 | Padres v. Brewers -150 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST is on the Milwaukee Brewers. No need to overthink this one. Milwaukee had won 11 of 12 before yesterday’s loss, while the Padres had lost six in a row. Milwaukee still sits a couple games back in the wild card playoff race, so it can ill afford to take the foot off the gas or lose focus now. The Padres hand the ball to Joey Lucchesi (10-8, 4.22 ERA), while the Brewers go with Jordan Lyles (11-8, 4.25). These two starters had drastically different results in their last outings and I believe it’s a “sign of things to come” in the short-term (Lucchesi gave up eight runs in three innings to the Rockies in his last start, while Lyles earned the victory vs. the the Cards last Saturday by conceding two runs over six frames.) Key Trends: - San Diego is just 32-36 (-5.3 units) this year following a victory. - Milwaukee is a sharp 21-12 this year as a favorite of -150 or higher. The verdict: Considering how big this game is for the Brewers and also taking into account their overall form and also the form of their starting pitcher, I think this is definitely the very definition of “great line value.” Lay the price! |
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09-18-19 | Padres v. Brewers -137 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -137 | 27 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the under Phillies/Braves. Considering the circumstances, I think this number is a little high. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin (8-12, 4.20 ERA), while the home side counters with Julio Teheran (10-9, 3.50). Eflin has admittedly struggled vs. ATL this year, going 0-3 with an 11.57 ERA. But I’m of the belief that such unbelievably lop-sided trends/numbers have a way of naturally “correcting” themselves, even over the short-term. Note though that in six career starts, Eflin is now 2-3 with a 4.45 ERA (and he’s conceded only four runs over 23 frames worked in Atlanta.) Same thing for Teheran funnily enough, as he’s 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA in two starts vs. Philadelphia. But like his counterpart today, overall Teheran has fared well vs. the PHillies throughout his career, going 9-8 with a 3.92 ERA in 25 appearances. Key Trends: - Philly has seen the total go under the number in 30 of 50 as an underdog this season. - ATL has seen the total dip under in 21 of its last 34 vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: Look for these two hungry starters to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries; play the under! |
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09-18-19 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 10 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 103 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the under Phillies/Braves. Considering the circumstances, I think this number is a little high. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin (8-12, 4.20 ERA), while the home side counters with Julio Teheran (10-9, 3.50). Eflin has admittedly struggled vs. ATL this year, going 0-3 with an 11.57 ERA. But I’m of the belief that such unbelievably lop-sided trends/numbers have a way of naturally “correcting” themselves, even over the short-term. Note though that in six career starts, Eflin is now 2-3 with a 4.45 ERA (and he’s conceded only four runs over 23 frames worked in Atlanta.) Same thing for Teheran funnily enough, as he’s 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA in two starts vs. Philadelphia. But like his counterpart today, overall Teheran has fared well vs. the PHillies throughout his career, going 9-8 with a 3.92 ERA in 25 appearances. Key Trends: - Philly has seen the total go under the number in 30 of 50 as an underdog this season. - ATL has seen the total dip under in 21 of its last 34 vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: Look for these two hungry starters to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries; play the under! |
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09-17-19 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 12-6 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under Marlins/D-Backs. A couple of capable hurlers go head-to-head in this one and in my opinion, runs are definitely going to be at a premium after yesterday’s 7-5 win by the D-Backs. The visitors go with Caleb Smith (8-10, 4.13 ERA), while the home side counters with Alex Young (7-4, 3.38). Smith already has 160 K’s over 139 1/3’s innings of work this season, while rookie Young has 61 K’s over 69 1/3’s innings. Key Trends: - Miami has seen the total go under the number in 20 of 29 this year as a road dog in the +150 to +200 range. - Arizona has seen the total dip under the number in nine of 14 this year as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range. The verdict: Look for these two hungry starters to battle deep into the latter frames and for this total to stay well under once it’s all said and done! |
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09-17-19 | Mets -147 v. Rockies | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New York Mets. I think that Marcus Stroman (8-13, 3.35 ERA) and the Mets will find a way to get the job done here on the road vs. Tim Melville (2-2, 5.16) and the Rockies after last nigh’s 9-4 series opening loss. Now five game sback in the NL Wild Card race, if not now for the Mets, when?! Stroman is 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA since coming over from the Jays and the Mets are 5-3 in those starts. Stroman comes in off his best start as a Met as well, allowing one run over six innings in an 11-1 win over the D-Backs on Thursday. Melville was destroyed in his latest outing by the Cards on Thursday, allowing five runs off five hits (four were home runs) over three innings. Key Trends: - The Mets are still 18-8 (+7.7 units) in their last 26 vs. teams with losing records. - The Rockies are just 6-10 this season as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: Stroman’s on a mission to prove he belongs and the Mets are absolutely desperate for a victory; all things considered, I feel this is a great price! |
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09-16-19 | Mets v. Rockies OVER 13.5 | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the over Mets/Rockies. For a number of different reasons, I look for this total to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. The visitors hand the ball to Steven Matz (10-8, 3.84 ERA), while the home side goes with Antonio Senzatela (9-10, 6.87). This is a big series for the Mets following a tough 3-2 loss to the Dodgers last night. The verdict: Matz has been awesome in The Big Apple by going 7-1 with a 1.94 ERA, but he’s a terrible 3-7 with a 6.08 ERA on the road. Clearly that doesn’t bode well for the southpaw playing in the thin air of Coors Field tonight. Senzatela has had success vs. the Mets in his career, but he owns a terrible 6.79 ERA at home this year. Taking into account the suspect starting pitching, as stated off the top, all signs point to this one flying over the number early! |
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09-16-19 | Browns v. Jets UNDER 45 | Top | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 34 h 49 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Browns/Jets. Cleveland played terribly in Week 1. It’s first drive of the game looked brilliant, but then a penalty cost it a TD and the Browns settled for the FG to open things up. And after that it was all downhill, as several penalties resulted in 187 yards lost. At that point, Baker Mayfield and company were forced to play from behind and the dynamic back threw three picks. I don’t think that the Titans offense is as good as it looked in Week 1 and I don’t think that the Browns defense is as bad as it looked either. What we do know is that the Jets blew a 16 point lead late to the Bills and lost in Week 1. They also lost starting QB Sam Darnold to mono. These are two teams looking to limit mistakes and control the tempo. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe that this one sets up as a lower-scoring battle. Key Trends: - Cleveland has seen the total go under in its last four after allowing 35 points or more in its previous outing. - New York has seen the total go under in its last two off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, I expect this one to stay well below the posted number; play the under! |
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09-16-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals +106 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 106 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. The Nationals bounced back and avoided a four-game sweep at home to the Braves last night, but I think they’ll stumble here. The visitors go with Stephen Strasburg (17-6, 3.49 ERA), while the home side goes with Daniel Hudson (15-7, 3.38). The Cards lead the Cubs by two games for the NL Central lead and after losing two of three to the Brewers over the weekend, clearly they won’t be looking past their opponent today. I’m calling the pitchers a “wash.” The difference is in the home field advantage and the numbers. Key Trends: - Washington is just 3-7 in its last ten following a win and as a road favorite in the -110 to -140 range. - St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine home games as an underdog in the +115 to +145 range. The verdict: Look for the hungry home side to bounce back after a losing weekend; great value here! |
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09-15-19 | Dodgers -130 v. Mets | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* SITUATIONAL SMASH-JOB is on the LA Dodgers. Whether on the road or at home, the Dodgers are a popular pick this year. The Mets are vying for a wild card, but the Dodgers are still in a fight for home field advantage. I always take into account “motivation” when looking at the two teams in question, but in the case, I think they’re equally as motivated, so we can throw that factor out the window and call it a “wash.” So that said, for this pick I’m going to concentrate solely on the starting pitching and in this case, I absolutely feel that Walker Bueler (13-3, 3.14 ERA) is worth the price of admission in this spot. Buehler enters on top form, most recently striking out 11 over seven innings, allowing no runs off four hits and no walks. Zach Wheeler (11-7, 4.21) comes in off a strong outing as well vs. the D-Backs, allowing one run over seven innings, but note that he’s 1-2 with a ballooned 7.88 ERA in three career starts vs. LA. Key Trends: - LA is 68-34 vs. right-handed starters this season. - New York is interestingly a poor 8-15 (-11 units) this year when playing on a Sunday. Does this stat matter? It certainly doesn’t help the Mets that’s for sure. The verdict: I like Buehler to continue his recent surge and I believe that Wheeler’s issues vs. this particular hard-hitting opponent continue; lay the short price! |
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09-15-19 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 10 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the over Braves/Nationals. The Braves won 10-1 yesterday and with the victory they’ve punched a ticket to the post-season. Atlanta though has its eyes on a bigger prize and it won’t be taking the foot off the gas today as it looks to still run down the best overall record in the NL. The Nationals though are looking to avoid the series sweep and back into the win column themselves. Max Fried (16-5, 4.02 ERA) and Anibal Sanchez (8-8, 4.04) have both been better than advertised for their clubs this year, but the overall situation lends itself to another high-scoring slug-fest in my opinion. Note the Fried was destroyed in his last start, getting rocked for five runs off seven hits over five innings vs. the Phillies (while 8-2 on the road, the beneficiary of the Braves’ explosive offense, note that Fried only has a 4.91 ERA on the road.) And unfortunately for Sanchez, he’s been better on the road (6-6, 3.36 ERA) this season, than at home (2-2, 4.96). Key Trends: - Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in all three of its games this year in which it enters off a victory of eight runs or more vs. a division rival. - Washington has seen the total go over the number in three of four this season after scoring two runs or less in two straight games. The verdict: I believe the starters get chased early and as a result, I look for this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later! |
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09-15-19 | Colts v. Titans -3 | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Titans. The Titans dismantled the Browns in Week 1 and I think they’re going to control this game vs. their division rival at home as well in Week 2. Indianapolis plays its second straight game away from home after losing a heart breaker to the Chargers in OT in LA in Week 1. The Colts put everything they had on the line in that one to try and pull off the upset, but it still wasn’t enough. With that heartbreaker still on the front of their minds, I think the visitors get steamrolled today by this confident Titans side. Key Trends: Yes the Colts offensive line was impressive in Week 1, but Tennessee’s offensive line was also dominant last week. In every single category I’m giving Tennessee the advantage today, especially with Marcus Mariota under center. Finally note that the Titans defeated the Colts twice in 2018 when Jacoby Brissett was the starting QB and note that they’ve won 16 of their last 20 games in Nashville overall; lay the points! |
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09-15-19 | Chargers -3 v. Lions | 10-13 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 10* play on the LA Chargers. LA definitely won’t be taking anything for granted here after nearly losing to the Colts in Week 1, managing the 30-24 OT victory after getting outscored 18-7 in the second half. The Lions though looked even worse by blowing an 18-point lead to the Cardinals and then leaving Arizona with a tie after neither side could score in OT. Key Trends: - LA is 6-1 SU in its last seven vs. the NFC (also 5-2 ATS in those games.) - The Chargers were 7-1 SU on the road last year. - The Lions are only 6-11 in their last 17 as a home underdog. The verdict: Philip Rivers had 333 yards and three TD’s for the Chargers last week and after the way that rookie QB Kyler Murray dismantled the Lions’ defense last week, I think the veteran “has himself a day” here as well; lay the short points! |
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09-15-19 | Bills v. Giants +2.5 | 28-14 | Loss | -109 | 145 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Giants. Buffalo came from behind to beat the Jets 17-16 on the road last weekend. The Bills final stats looked sharp, but for much of that game Buffalo struggled. New York started decently in Dallas last weekend, but then it also fell apart down the stretch, falling 35-17 once it was all said and done. Buffalo’s defense stepped up big against the Jets, but I have a hard time seeing lightning striking twice for the offensively challenged Bills. Eli Manning and the Giants are essentially in a “must win” scenario early, as second straight loss to open the year will undoubtedly have all of his naysayers calling for his termination immediately. Key Trends: - Buffalo is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off an upset win as an underdog. - New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine off a loss vs. a division rival. The verdict: The Giants looked poor against the pass with Dak Prescott, but the young secondary catches a break this week facing Josh Allen and the offensively challenged Bills; grab the points! |
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09-15-19 | Cardinals v. Ravens UNDER 45 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 145 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Cards/Ravens under. After both teams played to high-scoring affairs in Week 1, I’m expecting much more of a defensive battle here. The Cards came from behind to tie the Detroit Lions at home, as neither side was able to score in the OT frame. The Ravens annihilated the Dolphins 59-10. Kyler Murray look poised in last week’s tie for the Cards, finishing with 308 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Clearly Arizona will be out to protect their young QB today after the Ravens hammered the Dolphins last week by posting three sacks (note that Murray was sacked five times by the Lions.) Arizona was just 1-4 in the red zone though and it committed on turnover vs. the Lions. So are the Ravens really that good, or are the Dolphins really that bad? I’m not reading too much into that Week 1 result from either the Fish or Ravens. After Arizona allowed 116 rushing yards to Detroit last week, look for the home side to lean heavily on RB Mark Ingram on Sunday. Key Trends: - Arizona has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last eight after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. - Baltimore has seen the total go under the number in its last three home games when the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. The verdict: I expect a much more conservative game plan in Week 2 from each of these non-conference foes, which I believe will help in ultimately sending this one under the number once it’s all said and done! |
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09-15-19 | Patriots v. Dolphins +17 | 43-0 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Miami Dolphins. New England roared out to an easy victory over Pittsburgh in its opener and now its set to welcome dynamic receiver Antonio Brown into the mix. The Dolphins were steamrolled 52-10 by the Ravens in their opener and afterwards several players requested trades. Clearly on paper this is a major mismatch, but I expect this in fact to work in our favor here. The Patriots will rest starting players after they have a comfortable lead and the home side WILL NOT be lacking for motivation after getting crushed in Week 1. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the home side (ATS clearly!) Key Trends: - The Pats are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven played in Miami. - The home side is 14-3 ATS the last 17 in this series. The verdict: I think the Pats take the foot off the gas in the second half and the hungry Fish sneak in comfortably through the back door down the stretch; grab the points! |
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09-15-19 | Cowboys v. Redskins +5.5 | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 54 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Redskins. Dallas managed a 35-17 win in its opener vs. the Giants, while the Redskins are looking to bounce back after they fell 32-27 at Philadelphia. Washington had a 20-7 lead at one point in that one, before then falling apart. This has essentially become a “must win” game for the home side, as an 0-2 hole to start the year, combined with a second straight loss to a divisional foe will clearly be too much for the Skins to overcome. Dallas gave up 151 rushing hards to Saquon Barkley last week, so Washington RB Adrian Peterson will be seeing plenty of action. Key Trends: - Dallas is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a division game. - Washington is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after allowing 30 points or more in its previous game. The verdict: With the season on the line, look for the home side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire! |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | 28-26 | Loss | -100 | 145 h 54 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Seahawks are 1-0. The Steelers are 0-1. This has essentially become a “must win” game for the Steelers, especially after losing to the Patriots in Week 1 and the way in which the Ravens crushed the Fish last weekend. The pressure is on Pittsburgh to step up and deliver in this favorable home situation. The Hawks may have won last week, but it was far from convincing by outlasting Cincinnati 21-20. Key Trends: - Andy Dalton had 415 yards passing and two TD’s for the Bengals vs. the Hawks last weekend. Clearly Big Ben is licking his chops to get a shot at this suspect secondary. The verdict: I think that the Steelers lay it all on the line this weekend and I expect the Hawks to throw in the white flag early; lay the points! |
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09-14-19 | White Sox v. Mariners UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS on the under White Sox/M’s. Clearly neither starter instills much confidence whatsoever. That said, neither Dylan Cease (3-7, 6.53 ERA) nor Felix Hernandez (1-6, 6.96) will be lacking for motivation and each benefits from facing a line-up which struggles at the plate at times. After last night’s 9-7 explosive White Sox’ victory, I think the Saturday night contest sets up as more of a “duel.” Hernandez has been atrocious since returning from injury over two starts, but he’ll take confidence in the fact that he’s posted a very respectable 3.82 ERA in 21 career starts vs. the White Sox. Cease gave up one run over four innings vs. the Angels in his last outing. Key Trends: - Chicago has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten after scoring nine or more runs in its previous contest. - Seattle has seen the total go under the number in 13 of its last 21 vs. clubs with losing records. The verdict: For all the reason listed above, expect this total to sneak under once it’s all said and done! |
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09-14-19 | Reds v. Diamondbacks -109 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* BIG TIGER on the Arizona Diamondbacks. I think the home side offers great value to bounce back here after last night’s loss. The Reds go with Anthony DeSclafani (9-8, 4.06 ERA), while the home side counters with Merrill Kelly (10-14, 4.68). Arizona is playing with extreme desperation as last night’s 4-3 loss was its sixth in a row. Now 4.5 games behind the Cubs for the final wild card, there’s no room left for error. But desperation breeds motivation. Kelly has made back-to-back quality starts, most recently going seven scoreless and stricken gout nine in a 2-1 win over the Padres. DeSclafani has had success vs. the D-Backs in the past, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is still only 14-28 (-10.3 units) this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - Arizona is already 7-3 (+4.8 units) this season after having lost six or seven of its last eight. The verdict: The writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards; lay the short price! |
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09-14-19 | Oklahoma v. UCLA +23.5 | Top | 48-14 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 16 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA No outright victory obviously, but after starting 0-2 the UCLA Bruins are going to be desperate to pull off an upset here. With nothing to lose and playing with a sense of season ending desperation, I do indeed believe that the home side will keep this one competitive until the final moments. And would anyone fault the Sooners if they were caught “looking past” their lowly opponent in some small way today, especially after easily beating Houston and South Dakota? UCLA has talent on the defensive side of the ball and Sooners’ QB Jalen Hurts will be tested. OU’s D though is still trying to find itself under new coordinator Alex Grinch, so UCLA RB Joshua Kelly and company will have their opportunities. Key Trends: - Oklahoma is a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six as a road favorite. - UCLA is 3-1 ATS in its last four off an upset loss as a favorite. The verdict: UCLA has the size up front to make things difficult for OU. No outright, but expect this one to come down to the wire. Grab the points! |
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09-14-19 | Alabama v. South Carolina UNDER 60.5 | Top | 47-23 | Loss | -120 | 119 h 48 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the under Alabama/South Carolina. Alabama comes to town off wins over Duke and New Mexico State, while South Carolina was shocked in a 24-20 loss to UNC in its opener, before then annihilating FCS opponent Charleston Southern 72-10. Alabama will be out to establish the run early and often vs. its first SEC opponent this year, so far it’s ranked 31st in the country in that department. But South Carolina has looked much better on the defensive side of the ball this year, especially up front. Imposing their will in the trenches is the trademark of the Tide and I look for offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian to stick to the run throughout, despite having mobile QB Tua Tagovailoa. Key Trends: - UNC gouged USC for 238 rushing yards, so as mentioned off the top, look for the visitors to try and establish the run game while on offense from start to finish. - South Carolina lost its QB Jake Bentley in the loss to UNC. Ryan Hilinski was 24 of 30 for 282 yards and two TD’s in last week’s blowout win, but obviously he’s being thrown to the Wolves here vs. the best potential defense in the conference. The verdict: How can the Gamecocks help their backup QB today? Clearly by protecting him and by running the ball effectively. And so with both teams firmly committed to establishing the run and assert itself in the trenches, all signs do indeed point to the under as the correct call here! |
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09-14-19 | East Carolina v. Navy OVER 54.5 | 10-42 | Loss | -105 | 119 h 37 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* SUPER TOTAL on the over ECU/Navy. ECU looks to carry over the momentum from its 48-9 win over Gardner Webb last time out. Pirates’ QB Holton Ahlers has completed 40 of 68 passes so far this year and as a team they’re averaging 421.5 yards per game on offense (27 PPG). Navy clearly won’t be rolling over either after posting its first win of the year last time out, a 45-9 destruction of Holy Cross. QB Malcolm Perry leads the team in rushing with 96 yards and three TD’s. Overall Navy is averaging 531 yards of offense and 45 PPG. Key Trends: - The over is 5-1 in ECU’s last six following a victory. - The over 16-7 in Navy’s last 23 home games. The verdict: Navy has won four in a row in this series by an average of 24 points and it’s option is now firing on all cylinders. With the visitors forced to match pace, look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later; play the over! |
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09-14-19 | Miami-OH v. Cincinnati -16 | 13-35 | Win | 100 | 115 h 13 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on Cincinnati. Miami looked poor in its opener vs. Iowa and it lost 21-0 at home to the Bearcats last season. Cincinnati is going to be super motivated obviously after getting spanked by Ohio State last weekend. The Bearcats though haven’t lost a home game since November 2017. Cinncy QB Desmond Ridder will obviously have a much easier time this week vs. the RedHawks, who are allowing 27.5 PPG thus far. Brett Gabbert has been solid early for Miami Ohio, but this is definitely his stiffest test yet. Key Trends: - Miami Ohio is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten non-conference games. - Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home. The verdict: After last week’s national embarrassment, I look for Cincinnati to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this favorable matchup; lay the points! |
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09-14-19 | Kansas State v. Mississippi State -7 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on in Mississippi State. Last year the Bulldogs smashed K-State 31-10 in Manhattan and once the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect a similar style of blowout. The Wildcats come in with optimism after starting the year 2-0, but a quick look at their competition (FCS Nicholls State and MAC opponent Bowling Green) tells the real story. Mississippi State is 2-0 as well to the start the season, but it’s level of competition has been significantly greater, having beat Louisiana and Southern Miss. K-State QB Skylar Thompson has looked great in the early going, but clearly he facets his stiffest test yet. Key Trends: - The Bulldogs have forced at least one turnover in 18 straight games. - Through two games Mississippi State has recovered four fumbles and posted three INT’s. The verdict: The Bulldogs are also 13-1 vs. non-conference opponents the last three years. Look for the home side’s aggressive defense to prove to be the difference maker and lay the points with confidence! |
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09-13-19 | Washington State v. Houston UNDER 76 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 101 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under WSU/Houston. I think the short week, combined with the “step up” in competition will lead to this contest falling below this sky high total. WSU has average 58.5 PPG so far, but that’s been against New Mexico State and Northern Colorado. And both of those victories came at home. The Cougars of WSU hit the road for the first time this year and I believe they come out flat to open. Houston’s looked shaky at best to start the year, falling to Oklahoma, before bouncing back with an unimpressive 37-17 win over Prairie View A&M. Key Trends: - WSU has seen the total go under in three of its last four after two straight victories by 17 or more points. - Houston has seen the total go under in eight of its last 12 after playing its previous game at home. The verdict: This number is a tad high in my opinion; play the under! |
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09-13-19 | Astros v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 106 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the under Astros/Royals. The Astros have been playing to some high-scoring affairs of late, but when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I believe it’ll be the starting pitchers who are the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Gerrit Cole (16-5, 2.73 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side counters with Danny Duffy (6-6, 4.71). Cole has won 12 straight decisions, posting a 1.97 ERA in the process. Note that Cole struck out 15 in his team’s 21-1 win over the Mariners last Sunday. Duffy returned from the IL to starts ago and he’s looked great, most recently allowing on run and two hits in a 7-2 victory over the Marlins. Key Trends: - Houston has seen the total go under the number in 30 of 47 this year when the total in the contest is set between 8 or 8.5. - KC has seen the total go under in 19 of 31 this year in the same position. The verdict: I have a hard time seeing the Royals’ anemic offense mustering much of an attack here; this number is high, play the under! |
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09-13-19 | Kansas +22 v. Boston College | Top | 48-24 | Win | 100 | 100 h 30 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on Kansas. Outright victory? Of course not. But I think that BC gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today. BC upset VT 35-28 in Week 1 and then followed it up with a simple 45-13 victory over FCS Richmond in Week 2. KU beat Indiana State 24-17 in its opener, before stumbling 12-7 at home to Coastal Carolina. Kansas has a big bruising back in Khalil Herbert and I believe he’ll be a difference maker today; so far he has 170 rushing yards over the first two games. Key Trends: - KU has played solid defense so far, allowing an average of 4.9 yards per play. - BC has allowed 403 total yards per game so far, so the opportunities for KU will be there tonight. The verdict: BC has a great back in AJ Dillon, but as pointed out above, I think the conditions are right for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest; grab up all those points! |
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09-13-19 | Dodgers -128 v. Mets | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 40 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS on the LA Dodgers. I like Clayton Kershaw (13-5, 3.06 ERA) and the Dodgers to find a way to get the job done here vs. Noah Syndergaard (10-7, 4.06) and the Mets. New York is still in the hunt for a wild card berth, but after sweeping the D-Backs in four games, I believe a predictable “letdown” is imminent here. LA is still in search of the NL pennant and it has its best line-up of starters ready to go for this series. I like Kershaw to set the early tone. The verdict: Both starters have had considerable success vs. their respective opponent tonight, but note that LA is 66-33 vs. right-handed starters this year, while New York is only 15-21 (-7.4 units) vs. southpaws; lay the short price! |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest UNDER 66 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 98 h 55 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under UNC/Wake Forest. After starting 2-0, the Tar Heels will be looking to carry that momentum over here. Most recently Mack Brown’s guys beat Coastal rival Miami. The Demon Deacons enter off victories over Utah State and Rice. UNC has gotten better than expected QB play from Sam Howell, but the offense still revolves around the run game and Javonte Williams, who has 178 rushing yards thus far. Wake has gotten exceptional play from its dual threat QB as well in Jamie Newman, who has six TD’s and no INT’s so far. Key Trends: - Despite struggling against the pass in the early going, the Deacs do already have five sacks this season. - Look for Wake Forest to utilize the run game tonight, as UNC just gave up 179 yards on the ground to Miami. The verdict: This is a big game and on the short week, I believe these under-rated defensive units become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries; play the under! |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers -6.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -104 | 81 h 34 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Carolina Panthers. Bruce Arians is a good NFL head coach, but the Bucs are a bad team. TB QB Jameis Winston had 194 passing yards last week in his team’s 31-17 home loss to San Francisco, but he also had three INT’s, two of which were returned for a TD. The Bucs looked “OK” defensively, but it’s hard to truly judge facing San Francisco. The Panthers lost 30-27 to the Rams on Sunday, starting slowly and never able to recover. RB Christian McCaffrey had himself a day though, finishing with 128 rushing yards and two TD’s (also led the team with ten receptions.) Key Trends: - Tamp Bay is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after allowing at least 30 points in its previous game. The verdict: The short week always favors the home side and I definitely expect that to be the case on Thursday night. I don’t think Tampa’s offensive issues are going to suddenly fix themselves in such a short time and I do believe that the Panthers will play much better defensively this week. Lay the points with confidence! |
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09-12-19 | Braves -123 v. Phillies | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -123 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* BIG TIGER on the Atlanta Braves. Julio Teheran (10-8, 3.31 ERA) and the Atlanta Braves have taken two of three to open this four game series, but they still sit three games behind the Dodgers for the best record in the NL. Drew Smyly (4-6, 6.20) and the Phillies are desperate to try and reach one of the NL wild card spots, but time is running out and this is a horrible matchup on the mound for it. Teheran has a 3.66 lifetime ERA vs. Philadelphia, while Smyly is just 1-6 with a 7.66 ERA in all home games this year. The verdict: I base my picks on many different things, but this one I’m primarily focussing on the starting pitchers. Both teams are equally as “hungry” to win, so the motivation part of the equation has to be thrown out here. From purely a starting pitching stand point, I absolutely feel that Teheran could/should in fact be a much larger favorite in this particular matchup; lay the price! |
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09-12-19 | Diamondbacks v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the over D-Backs/Mets. For a number of different reasons, I think this one sets up perfectly as a high-scoring slug-fest on Thursday afternoon. Alex Young (7-3, 3.38 ERA) has been sharp for the D-Backs of late, most recently striking out 12 in a 2-0 win over Cincinnati. After having won three of four though, I think Young finally takes a step back here in this pressure filled situation. The home side goes with Marcus Stroman (7-13, 3.42), who looked poor in his last start, allowing five runs off ten hits over four innings in a 5-0 loss to Philadelphia. Since coming over from Toronto Stroman has posted a horrible 1-2, 5.05 ERA record. Key Trends: - Arizona has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 National League road games as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. - New York has seen the total dip under the number in seven of its last 11 day home games as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: This is a big game/series and I believe these hungry line-ups chase these starters early; play the over! |
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09-11-19 | Brewers v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the under Brewers/Marlins. I have a hard time seeing the offensively challenged Marlins mustering many runs in this matchup. The Brewers hand the ball to Zach Davies (9-7, 3.69 ERA), while the home side counters with Reynaldo Lopez (5-8, 4.75.) Milwaukee is going for its sixth straight win here. Note though that last night’s victory came with a major cost after slugger Christian Yelich injured himself in the first inning. He won’t be in the line-up this evening either. Key Trends: - Milwaukee has seen the total go under in ten of its last 15 on the road when the total is set at either 8 or 8.5. - Miami has seen the total dip under in 13 of its last 21 vs. right-handed starters. The verdict: I like Davies to go deep and without Yelich in the line-up, there’s no question in my mind that this one definitely sets up as a “duel,” rather than a high-scoring slug-fest; play the under! |
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09-11-19 | Dodgers v. Orioles +183 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 183 | 28 h 31 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* BEWARE-OF-DOG play on the Baltimore Orioles. After last night’s setback, I think the Orioles offer great value to “steal” this one off their contented non-conference opponent. LA just won the NL West Division with last night’s victory and while it still has to lock up home field advantage throughout, there’s no question that tonight’s contest sets up as a natural letdown spot for the Dodgers. Ross Stripling (4-4, 3.42 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while the home side goes with John Means (10-10, 3.50). Means has been spectacular of late, going 2-2 with a tiny 2.45 ERA over his last four starts. The verdict: I think Means is the correct call here. LA looks poised for a classic “letdown” after clinching the division last night as well. As mentioned off the top, this one has “upset” written all over it; play on the Orioles! |
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09-10-19 | Reds -130 v. Mariners | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -130 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* CLASH-OF-THE-TITANS on the Cincinnati Reds. Cincinnati turns to Trevor Bauer (10-12, 4.60 ERA), while the home side goes with Justus Sheffield (0-1, 5.51). Sheffield comes in off a no-decision despite going five scoreless vs. the Cubs. Bauer’s been terrible for the Reds since coming over from the Tribe, but I still think he’ll have more than enough in the tank to get the better of his rookie counterpart. Note that Bauer beat the M’s on April 15th, conceding one run over seven innings while striking out eight. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is 7-2 in its last nine as a road favorite of -110 or higher. - Seattle is only 8-16 this season a home dog of +125 or more. The verdict: I think Bauer bounces back and finishes up the season strong and doesn’t look past this opportunity whatsoever. Lay the price! |
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09-10-19 | Diamondbacks v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the over D-Backs/Mets. Zac Gallen (3-4, 2.50 ERA) gets the nod for the D-Backs and he’ll be opposed by the Mets’ Zach Wheeler (10-7, 4.33) in this one. Both have looked good this season, but I believe each will get the hook early and I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Both teams are still in the wildcard hunt and neither will be taking anything for granted tonight. Key Trends: - Arizona has seen the total go over in 12 of its last 18 in revving a loss where the team scored one or less runs. - New York has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 16 of 25 this year already at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: From a situational stand point, this one absolutely sets up as a “slug-fest;” play the over! |
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09-09-19 | Pirates v. Giants -154 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -154 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco Giants. Trevor Williams (7-6, 5.16 ERA) has had a lot of success vs. the Giants throughout his career and he’s been playing well of late as well. But Madison Bumgarner (9-8, 3.81 ERA) has also dominated the Pirates though out his career and he also enters on top form. The verdict: The difference here though is the desperation in which the Giants come out with tonight. San Fran is seven games back with three weeks remaining for the final Wild Card spot, but it has a big advantage in playing seven straight at home vs. sub .500 teams. Bumgarner is scheduled to pitch twice over the next week. I think the veteran delivers and gets the better of his counterpart today. I’m laying what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price and expecting a blowout from start to finish; play on the Giants! |
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09-09-19 | Texans +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 245 h 55 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Houston Texans. Every team in the National Football League has “big” expectations heading into a new campaign, and these two clubs are no different. Houston finished with an 11-5 record a year ago, while the Saints lost a heart-breaker to the Rams in the NFC Championship Game under a controversial call. Note though that last year Mark Ingram had the second most rushing yards in the league for the Saints and he’s now gone to Baltimore. I think this effects the offense for the home side early this year. Key Trends: - New Orleans has dropped every season opener since 2014. - The Saints have lost their first home game in each of their last four seasons. The verdict: Both teams have new faces on both sides of the ball, but the situation and numbers point to a competitive battle in my opinion; grab the points! |
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09-09-19 | Brewers v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the under Brewers/Marlins. Neither of these starting pitchers instills a ton of confidence, but neither will be lacking for motivation here. The Brewers go with Jordan Lyles (10-8, 4.46 ERA), while the home side counters with Robert Dugger (0-1, 4.00). The Brewers beat the Cubs 8-5 yesterday afternoon to get them back into the Wild Card race, but I’m expecting much more of a “duel” today. The verdict: Note that in seven starts for the Brewers since coming over from Pittsburgh, Lyles is 5-1 with a 2.56 ERA spanning seven starts. Dugger was rocked for six runs in his debut, but since then he’s allowed just two runs over his last 13 innings of work. Look for these two hot hurlers to battle deep and expect this total to stay well below the posted number; play the under! |
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09-08-19 | Steelers +7 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -137 | 222 h 11 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Year after year these two teams are always in the playoffs and making a serious run at the championship. New England more so than Pittsburgh of late. New England made a big acquisition in Antonio Brown on Saturday, but I think that’s going to be more of a distraction. The Super Bowl Champ has done well ATS in its first game back the following year, but I believe that trend finally comes to an end vs. this hungry visiting side. Pittsburgh hates AB and it hates New England. I think the “hungrier, hate filled” side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as an underdog (and 5-0 ATS its last five as a road dog). - New England is only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The verdict: I think Pittsburgh has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright. That said, grab as many points as you can! |
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09-08-19 | Colts v. Chargers -6.5 | 24-30 | Loss | -109 | 218 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Chargers. If Andrew Luck was playing in this game, I’d still recommend a play on the Chargers. Granted, Jacoby Brissett is a worthy backup, but he’s being thrust into the spot-light here in short order and I believe he’s going to predictably struggle here in this difficult road venue. LA is without RB Melvin Gordon, but Philip Rivers returns, along with a strong stable of receivers and an improved defense. I think this is going to be a slaughter from start to finish. Key Trends: - Indianapolis is only 10-13 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog. - LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The verdict: No Luck = no luck. Lay the points, expect more than a River, this one has complete WASHOUT written all over it! |
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09-08-19 | Falcons v. Vikings UNDER 47.5 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 215 h 56 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under Falcons/Vikings. It’s a big game for both teams right out of the gate. Minnesota has a 19-11 all time lead in this series, which includes back-to-back victories, including 14-9 win in 2017. Both teams took big steps backwards last year, but each has big expectations heading into this season. While the offense stalled for Minnesota last year, the Vikings return ten starters on the defensive side of the ball to a unit which is once again expected to be one of the bed tin the league. Atlanta was plagued by injury last year. The Falcons’ offense isn’t in question ever with Matt Ryan running the show, but Atlanta’s success in 2019/20 will once again be decided on what its defense is capable of doing. Key Trends: - Atlanta has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 16 on the road. - Minnesota has seen the total go under in nine of its last 12 as a home favorite. The verdict: I can’t see the Vikes turning this into a “shootout” with Ryan and company, so I believe we’ll see a much more methodical pace from the home side. When you add up all of the above factors I believe that the under is definitely the correct call! |
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09-08-19 | Redskins +10 v. Eagles | 27-32 | Win | 100 | 215 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Washington Redskins. It’s an important divisional matchup on Sunday. Last year Washington was 5-2 after the first seven games, but then it would finish 7-9. Philadelphia beat Chicago in the Wild Card Round last season, before then falling 20-14 to the Saints int he Divisional Round. Philadelphia is going to be leaning heavily on Carson Wentz to open the year, as it completely overdid its RB roster, bringing in Jordan Howard, before then also grabbing Miles Sanders. The strength of Philadelphia early I think will be its defense. Washington has plenty of question marks, but it has the talent to keep up to the one dimensional home side in my opinion. Key Trends: - Washington is 3-0 ATS in its last three as a road dog in the 7.5 to 14 points range. - Philadelphia is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a home favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range. The verdict: I think Washington pulls out every play in the playbook to try and pull of the upset in Week 1. That said, grab the points! |
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09-08-19 | Bills +3 v. Jets | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 215 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo benefits from early regional contests, with back-to-back contests vs. state rivals Jets and then the Giants. The Bills have plenty of weapons on the offensive end, including Devin Singletary and Frank Gore. QB Josh Allen looked comfortable in camp and he has two deadly weapons in John Brown and Cole Beasley. Le’Veon Bell was New York’s big offseason signing, but the offense is still very one-dimensional in my opinion. Sam Darnold looked great at times last year and pretty pedestrian in others. Key Trends: - Buffalo is 3-2 SU in its last five games played in New York. - Note that head-to-head the underdog is 7-1 ATS the last eight in this series as well. The verdict: The QB’s are a “wash” in my opinion; grab the points! |
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09-07-19 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss -6.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 123 h 1 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on Mississippi. The SEC Arkansas Razorbacks are 1-0 and the SEC Ole Miss Rebels are 0-1. Arkansas was just 2-10 last year, including 0-8 in league play under Chad Morris, while the Rebels were 5-7 overall last season, including just 1-7 in SEC action. Ole Miss’s lone conference victory came at Arkansas, 37-33, but I expect a more decisive victory this season. Arkansas managed a victory last week, but it was a 20-13 effort over FCS Portland State. The Hogs went a poor 5 of 15 from third down in the more difficult than expected victory. Ole Miss was competitive throughout its 15-10 loss to Memphis after going down 13-0 early. Key Trends: - Arkansas is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine on the road. - Ole Miss is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a loss by six points or less. The verdict: The Hogs were terrible on the road last year and I think they have a big dose of reality this weekend vs. this SEC foe; lay the points! |
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09-07-19 | Coastal Carolina +9.5 v. Kansas | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 123 h 31 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on Coastal Carolina. The CC Chanticleers are out to rebound after falling 30-23 to EMU in their opener last weekend. QB Fed Payton had 304 yards, two TD’s and four INT’s. The Kansas Jayhawks enter off a satisfying 24-17 victory over Indiana State and I believe it’ll suffer a predictable letdown here vs. this dangerous underdog (Carter Stanley was a standout in Kansas win with 241 yards and two TD’s.) Key Trends: - Coast Carolina is 7-3 ATS In its last ten on the road. - The Chanticleers are 7-2 SU in their last nine non-conference games. - Conversely, Kansas is only 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 non-conference contests. The verdict: I think these teams are more evenly matched than what this spread would suggest and in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’ll ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can; play on Coastal Carolina! |
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09-07-19 | UL-Monroe v. Florida State -21 | 44-45 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 31 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on Florida State. Florida State was upset by Boise State last weekend. But, the Broncos are a good team, so losing to them isn’t the end of the World in my opinion. Does Louisiana Monroe have the ability to take advantage of FSU’s inefficiencies on the defensive side? The Seminoles are loaded with talent, especially on the offensive end and I don’ think that ULM will be able to keep pace down the stretch. Key Trends: - ULM is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 21.5 to 28 points range. - FSU is 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing a non-conference contest. The verdict: Of course there are going to be problems on the defensive side for FSU, but I believe the home side will keep the foot on the gas from start to finish on the offensive end of things; lay the points! |
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09-07-19 | San Diego State v. UCLA -7 | 23-14 | Loss | -105 | 120 h 46 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on UCLA. SDSU beat Weber State, but the offense looked terrible, only managing two field goals. UCLA looked like a deer caught in the headlights in its loss to the Bearcats last week, but with a week to adjust, I believe Chip Kelly will take advantage of this struggling SDSU offense. Aztecs’ QB Ryan Agnew had just 108 yards on 16 completed passes last weekend. SDSU is simply too one dimensional and I think it’s going to struggle on both ends of the field today vs. this now very focused home side. Key Trends: - SDSU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 14 points or less in its previous contest. - UCLA is 5-1 ATS in its last six off a road loss. The verdict: UCLA has the talent advantage. It’s also desperate after last week’s loss. For all intents and purposes this has become a “must win” for Kelly and company; I’m laying the points and expecting a rout! |
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