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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-14-18 | Lakers v. Pelicans -5 | 117-139 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the New Orleans Pelicans -5: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the home record of the Pelicans is particularly significant. While they are just two games over .500 at home, the Lakers are just 9-18 on the road. The Lakers have lost (and failed to cover) three of the last four in this series, and their last game at New Orleans was a 105-88 loss. Isaiah Thomas scored 22 points in his Lakers debut, but LA lost by seven points to Dallas. The trade with Cleveland isn't helping LA in the short term. Key Trends: - The Lakers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss. - The Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. - The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games. Verdict: Take Pelicans -5. |
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02-13-18 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 209 | 109-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
Ricky's 10* play on SA vs Denver Under 209: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the previous history between these two teams is of particular interest. Two of the last three head to head meetings have fallen short of the total, and the one game that went over saw just 210 points. The total for tonight's game is significantly higher than it was in the two previous games between these teams this season. Key Trends: - The Under is 7-1 in Nuggets last 8 games playing on 2 days rest. - The Under is 20-8 in Nuggets last 28 home games versus a team with a losing road record. - The Under is 8-3 in Spurs last 11 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Verdict: Take Under 209. |
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02-13-18 | Rangers v. Wild -190 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
Ricky's 6* play on the Minnesota Wild -190: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the home record of Minnesota is of particular significance. The Wild have just four home losses this season (19-4-5), fewer than any other team in the league. The Rangers are coming in as losers of seven of their last 10 overall, and injuries are a major concern for New York. Key Trends: - The Rangers are 2-7 in their last 9 road games. - The Wild are 5-1 in their last 6 versus the Eastern Conference. - The Rangers are 2-8 in their last 10 versus a team with a winning record. Verdict: Take Minnesota -190. |
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02-13-18 | Devils v. Flyers OVER 5.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Ricky's 10* play on NJD vs Philly Over 5.5: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the injury to Devils starting goalie Corey Schneider is of particular significance. Third string goaltender Eddie Lack gave up four goals in a 5-3 loss to Boston on Sunday, and second string netminder Keith Kinkaid has lost three straight starts, surrendering 13 goals in those games. Key Trends: - The Over is 4-0 in Flyers last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. - The Over is 6-2 in Flyers last 8 overall. - The Over is 12-4 in Flyers last 16 versus the Metropolitan. Verdict: Take Over 5.5. |
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02-13-18 | Boston College v. Pittsburgh +8.5 | 81-58 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
8* |
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02-12-18 | Panthers v. Oilers -135 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Edmonton Oilers -135: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the play of Connor McDavid is of particular interest. The 21 year old led the league in scoring with 100 points last year, and he's just five points back of league leader Nikita Kucherov this season. He comes into tonight's game with 10 points in his last five games. Key Trends: - The Panthers are 3-13 in the last 16 meetings. - The Oilers are 6-1 in their last 7 Monday games. - The Panthers are 1-5 in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. Verdict: Take Edmonton -135. |
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02-12-18 | Iona v. Siena OVER 142 | 78-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on Iona vs Siena Over 142: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the previous history between these two teams is particularly significant. While the over is just 5-5 in the last 10 meetings in this series, the total was 150 or higher in all 10 over those games. Nine of the 10 games went over the total listed for tonight's game. Iona is known for it's offense, averaging over 84 points in it's last five games. The Gaels don't play defense though, as they have allowed almost 80 points per game during that span. Key Trends: - The Over is 20-8-1 in Gaels last 29 road games. - The Over is 5-1-1 in Gaels last 7 overall. - The Over is 5-1-1 in Gaels last 7 versus the MAAC. Verdict: Take Over 142. |
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02-12-18 | Notre Dame +10.5 v. North Carolina | 66-83 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Ricky's 10* play on the Notre Dame Irish +10.5: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the previous history between these two teams is particularly significant. At a glance, it appears that the Tar Heels have dominated this series. While North Carolina has won seven of the last 10 meetings, they have failed to cover in six of the last eight. The double digit spread is higher than it has been in any of the last seven meetings. This is also a tough scheduling spot for the Tar Heels, playing their third game in five days. They are the only ACC team to play such a game this season. Key Trends: - The Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. - The Fighting Irish are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. - The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in North Carolina. Verdict: Take ND +10.5. |
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02-11-18 | Sharks +1.5 v. Ducks | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the SJS +1.5: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the magnitude of this game is of particular signifcance. These two teams are seperated by just two points in the standings, and both teams are on the playoff bubble. This game should have a playoff feel about it, and for that reason I expect a close, low scoring game. The Sharks won the last meeting in this series by a score of 6-2, and prior to that these teams played nine straight games decided by just one goal. Key Trends: - The Road team is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. - The Sharks are 8-1 in their last 9 versus the Pacific. - The Puckline dog is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings Verdict: Take SJS +1.5. |
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02-11-18 | Duke v. Georgia Tech +10.5 | Top | 80-69 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on GT +10.5: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the home court advantage for Georgia Tech is the most significant. They are 10-5 overall at home, and their most recent home loss was a two-point game versus Clemson. They play strong defense on their home floor, allowing just 61.7 points per game. This game should be decided by single digits, and don't be surprised to see an upset. Key Trends: - The Yellow Jackets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a double digit home dog. - GT is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. - The Yellow Jackets are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games. Verdict: Take GT +10.5. |
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02-11-18 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 213 | Top | 121-99 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Cavs/Celtics UNDER 213: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the personnel of the Cavs is particularly significant. New players that don't know the system will play limited minutes as they try to figure out the team chemistry. This isn't going to be an easy task against a Celtics team that ranks 2nd overall in scoring defense. Boston has also had offensive struggles of late, coming off a home loss to the Indiana Pacers. Key Trends: - The Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Boston. - The Under is 5-1 in Celtics last six home games. - The Under is 3-1 in the last four head to head meetings. Verdict: Take UNDER 213. |
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02-11-18 | Michigan -170 v. Wisconsin | 83-72 | Win | 100 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on Michigan -170: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that Wisconsin's inability to score is of particular significance. The Badgers have only averaged 63.4 points per game over their last five overall. They have lost eight of their last 10, and both those wins came against the same conference bottom feeder (Illinois). After losing their last two home games to Nebraska and Northwestern, I can't see them knocking off a Michigan team that still has ambitions of an NCAA Tournament run. Key Trends: - The Wolverines are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 versus the Big Ten. - The Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. - The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Wisconsin. Verdict: Take Michigan -170. |
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02-10-18 | Gonzaga v. St. Mary's UNDER 146.5 | Top | 78-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Gonzaga vs SMC to go UNDER 146.5: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the recent history between these two teams is of particular interest. The Gaels won at Gonzaga by a score of 74-71 earlier this season, and St. Mary's normally plays lock down defense at home. They have held the opposition to just 60.9 points per game at home, and they have only given up 56.8 points per game over their last five overall. The Bulldogs are also a strong defensive team, and in a game of this magnitude, don't expect any easy buckets. Key Trends: - The Under is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings. - The Under is 6-2 in Gonzaga's last 8 overall. - The Under is 12-3-1 in St. Mary's last 16 versus WCC teams. Verdict: Take UNDER 146.5. |
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02-10-18 | Flyers v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | 4-3 | Win | 102 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on Coyotes vs Flyers Over 5.5: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the recent history between these teams is of particular interest. Arizona rarely has good numbers against anyone, but they have won four straight versus the Flyers. They scored a whopping 15 goals in those games. Key Trends: - The Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings. - The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Arizona. - The Over is 5-1 in Flyers last 6 overall. Verdict: Take Over 5.5. |
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02-10-18 | Kings +1.5 v. Lightning | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the LAK +1.5: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that a red hot goaltender is of particular interest. Darcy Kuemper is 9-1-3 with a 1.78 GAA this season. The Kings are coming off a 3-1 win over the Panthers last night, and they are in a heated battle for one of the last playoff spots in the West. Don't expect them to roll over here in Tampa. Key Trends: - The Kings are 6-0 in their last six in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. - The Kings are 4-0 in their last four versus the Atlantic. - The Kings are 5-1 in their last 6 overall. Verdict: Take LAK +1.5. |
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02-10-18 | Sabres v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Sabres vs Bruins Under 5.5: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that Boston's stellar defense is of particular interest. The Bruins rank 1st in the NHL in goals against, allowing just 2.3 goals per game. They host the lowly Buffalo Sabres, who rank dead last in the league in scoring, averaging just 2.3 goals per game. The Sabres are also among the league's worst with a power play percentage of just 17 percent. Key Trends: - The Under is 8-1 in Sabres last 9 vs. Atlantic. - The Under is 6-0 in Bruins last 6 home games. - The Under is 5-2-2 in the last 9 meetings. Verdict: Take Under 5.5. |
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02-10-18 | Oklahoma -4 v. Iowa State | 80-88 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on Oklahoma -4: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that it's Oklahoma's strength of schedule that stands out. While the Sooners have lost five consecutive road games, you could say that all those teams they played are better than Iowa State. Another thing that stands out is just how close some of those games were. They lost by five points at Texas, and lost in overtime at Oklahoma State. The Cyclones have lost four of their last five overall, and all of those losses were of the blowout variety. Iowa State simply doesn't look like it can score enough points to keep up with the #17 ranked Sooners. Key Trends: - The Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning straight up record. - The Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. - The Cyclones have failed to score 70 points in four of their last five overall. Verdict: Take Oklahoma -4. |
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02-09-18 | Kings v. Panthers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on LAK vs Florida UNDER 5.5: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the hot goaltending for both these teams is of particular interest. Darcy Kuemper appears to have stolen the starting job from Jonathan Quick in LA. Kuemper is 9-1-3 with a 1.78 GAA this season. The Panthers 28 year old rookie Harri Sateri is 4-0 in his last four starts, allowing just six goals in those games. With the Kings battling for one of the final playoff spots in the West, we should see a defensive battle in Florida tonight. It's also worth noting that LA ranks 2nd in the NHL in goals against, and the Kings own the league's best penalty killing unit. Key Trends: - The under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Florida. - The Under is 7-2-3 in the last 12 meetings. - The Under is 33-15-7 in the Kings last 55 road games. Verdict: Take Under 5.5. |
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02-09-18 | Princeton v. Harvard OVER 130 | Top | 51-66 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Harvard vs Princeton to go OVER 130: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the fact both these teams have been scoring a lot of points is of particular interest. Princeton has averaged less than 73 points per game overall this season, but has averaged over 80 points in it's last five games. Harvard averages roughly 65 points per game game overall, but has scored over 70 points per game in it's last five. The total for tonight's game is lower than it was in any of Princeton's last 10 games, and lower than it was in nine of Harvard's last 10 games. Key Trends: - The Over is 3-1 in the last four head to head meetings. - The Over is 8-2-1 in Princeton's last 11 versus the Ivy League. - The Over is 11-4 in Harvard's last 15 versus the Ivy League. Verdict: Take Over 130. |
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02-08-18 | Thunder v. Lakers UNDER 217 | Top | 81-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Thunder vs Lakers Under 217: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the injuries for both teams are of particular significance. Carmelo Anthony is probable with an ankle injury, but Russell Westbrook is also banged up, and his status is questionable. The Lakers are still without Lonzo Ball, but they come into tonight's game as winners of three straight. They allowed fewer than 100 points in two of those three games. Key Trends: - The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these two teams. - The Under is 4-1 in the Thunder's last five overall. - The Under is 6-1 in the Thunder's last seven versus the Western Conference. Verdict: Take Under 217. |
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02-08-18 | Canadiens v. Flyers OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 105 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Habs vs Flyers Over 5.5: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the poor defensive play of both teams is most significant. Both teams rank near the bottom of the league when it comes to killing penalties. Philly ranks 29th on the penalty kill, while the Habs are ranked 23rd in that category. At least Montreal has a potent power play, ranking 7th in the NHL converting on almost 22 percent of their power play chances. Key Trends: - The Over is 4-1 in the Flyers last five overall. - The Over is 15-6 in the Flyers last 21 versus a team with a losing record. - The Over is 4-1 in the Flyers last five versus the Eastern Conference. Verdict: Take Over 5.5. |
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02-07-18 | Spurs v. Suns OVER 203 | 129-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Ricky's 10* play on Spurs vs Suns Over 203: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the poor defensive play of the home team is of particular significance. The Suns are dead last in the league in opponent's scoring average, giving up just over 112 points per game. They have given up at least 112 points in five of their last six overall. Key Trends: - The Over is is 5-2 in the Spurs last seven overall. - The Over is 4-1 in the Spurs last five games playing on three or more days rest. - The Over is 6-1 in the Suns last seven games playing on 0 days rest. Verdict: Take OVER 203. |
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02-07-18 | Wolves v. Cavs UNDER 224.5 | Top | 138-140 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Cavs vs Wolves Under 224.5: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the recent poor play of the Cavs is particularly significant. Cleveland scored just 88 points in a loss to the Rockets on Sunday, and then last night lost 116-98 to Orlando. This looks like a team that has given up on it's coach. Tyronn Lue left the last game due to an illness, and did not return. It remains to be seen if he will be with the team tonight. Key Trends: - The Under is 5-1-1 in Cavaliers last 6 games following a straight up loss. - The Under is 6-2-1 in Cavaliers last 8 games following a ATS loss. - The Under is 4-1 in Timberwolves last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Verdict: Take UNDER 224.5. |
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02-07-18 | Predators v. Maple Leafs OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Preds vs Leafs Over 5.5: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the scoring prowess of both these teams is particularly significant. The Leafs rank 7th in the NHL averaging 3.2 goals per game, and the Preds are right there, averaging 3.1 goals per game. Nashville also scores more than it's share on the power play, ranking #3 in the league in that category. Key Trends: - The Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Toronto. - The Over is 4-1 in Predators last five versus Eastern Conference teams. - The Over is 4-1 in Predators last five games following a win. Verdict: Take OVER 5.5. |
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02-06-18 | Cavs v. Magic UNDER 226 | Top | 98-116 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Cavs vs Magic Under 226: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the recent poor play of the Cavs is particularly significant. Cleveland scored just 88 points in a loss to the Rockets in their last game, and if they have any hopes of turning this season around, they have to get better defensively. The total for this game is sky high, and I believe grossly inflated. Orlando has only gone over 226 points once in their last nine games. Key Trends: - The Under is 4-1-1 in Cavaliers last 6 games following a straight up loss. - The Under is 5-2-1 in Cavaliers last 8 games following a ATS loss. - The Under is 6-1 in Magic last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Verdict: Take UNDER 226. |
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02-06-18 | Missouri State v. Indiana State -123 | 81-62 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on Indiana State ML: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the recent poor play of the visiting team is particularly significant. Missouri State got off to a great start this season, but they have lost five in a row. This is a team that has lost six of nine road games, and yet they aren't catching many points here in on the road against a team with a better conference record. The Sycamores should be a more significant favorite here. Key Trends: - The Bears have failed to cover in nine straight games. - The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. - The Bears are 0-9 ATS in their last nine conference games. Verdict: Take Indiana State ML. |
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02-06-18 | Tennessee v. Kentucky -130 | 61-59 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on Kentucky ML: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the history between these two teams is of particular significance. The home team is 9-1 in the last 10 head to head meetings between the two teams. Kentucky is a monster at home, with a record of 13-1. Key Trends: **ALL THE TRENDS FAVOR THE VOLS, WHICH IS LIKELY WHY WE GET THE HOME TEAM AT CLOSE TO A PICKEM DESPITE THE FACT THEY OWN A 13-1 HOME RECORD. THIS PARTICULAR PLAY IS MORE ABOUT LINE VALUE THAN TRENDS** Verdict: Take Kentucky ML. |
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02-06-18 | Xavier +4 v. Butler | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on Xavier +4: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the previous history between these two teams is of particular significance. The Musketeers have won three of their last four at Butler, and they are 6-2 overall in the last eight meetings between the two teams. The won last year at Butler by a score of 62-57, and they come into this game riding a five game winning streak. Key Trends: - The Musketeers are 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings. - The Musketeers are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Butler. - The Musketeers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games. Verdict: Take Xavier +4. |
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02-05-18 | Lightning v. Oilers OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the over in TB vs Edmonton: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the scoring prowess of the visiting team in of particular significance. The Lightning are the highest scoring team in the NHL, and Nikita Kucherov leads the league in points. They face an Oilers team that ranks 26th in the NHL in goals against. Key Trends: - The Over is 4-1 in the Lightning's last five overall. - The Over is 3-1 in Edmonton's last four overall. - The Over is 6-0 in the Lightning's last six versus a team with a losing record. Verdict: Take the OVER 5.5. |
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02-04-18 | Eagles +5 v. Patriots | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 266 h 38 m | Show |
Super Bowl experience goes a long way and one could easily say the Patriots may win this game solely on that aspect, but at the same time the inexperience factor may actually help the Eagles to not overthink and to stick with what got them here in the first place. Nick Foles is competent enough at the QB position to not lose this game for the Eagles and therefore I see this playing out as a competitive game across offense, defense and special teams. I don't foresee either team running away with it because the Eagles have a very stout D which should keep them in the game regardless if the offense struggles, meanwhile the Patriots offense has the ability to keep them in the game if their defense struggles. Despite the obvious experience at the head coaching position with Bill Belichick, Eagles HC Doug Pederson is a real up and comer and very sharp in his own right. I expect both coaches to devise excellent game plans and adjust as necessary after half time. The Eagles will likely double Gronk and play man-to-man at every other position. I don't think they will blitz all that much, because D Lineman Cox is essentially a double man rush by himself and as long as the press man-to-man coverage + double team on Gronk it would only leave an open receiver somewhere. The Patriots coaching staff is smart enough to know this Eagles game plan may present itself and therefore I would expect them to practice and game plan against this themselves. Overall, I see this be a very competitive game and likely a field goal win on either side. Philadelphia Eagles +5 |
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02-04-18 | Wisconsin +8.5 v. Maryland | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Wisconsin Badgers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the injuries to several key players for Maryland is of particular significance. Their leading scorer is expected to pay despite a thumb injury, but the status of three other starters is still in question. Despite losing five of their last six overall, they are a heavy home favorite today. Key Trends: - The Badgers have won four of the last six in this series outright. - The Badgers have lost two of their last three at Maryland, but each loss by six points. - The Badgers won 70-57 in their most recent game at Maryland. Verdict: Take the Badgers +8.5 |
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02-04-18 | Golden Knights v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the over in LV vs Washington: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the scoring prowess of both teams is of particular significance. The Capitals are 8th overall in the NHL in scoring, but star forward Alex Ovechkin is the league's leading scorer. He scored twice in a 7-4 loss to Pittsburgh on Friday. The Golden Knights are 2nd overall in the league in scoring. Key Trends: - The Over is 4-1 in Golden Knights last 5 road games. - The Over is 5-2 in Golden Knights last 7 overall. - The Over is 5-2 in Capitals last 7 overall. Verdict: Take the OVER 5.5. |
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02-04-18 | Blazers v. Celtics UNDER 202.5 | Top | 96-97 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on UNDER in Portland vs Boston: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the defensive prowess of the home team is of particular significance. While Boston played a high scoring game against Atlanta, they had previously held the Knicks to just 73 points. They rank second overall in the NBA in opponent's scoring average, and today's opponent (Portland) also ranks in the top 10 in that category. Key Trends: - The under is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. - The under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 Sunday games. - The under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 home games. Verdict: Take the UNDER 202,5 |
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02-03-18 | Oklahoma v. Texas UNDER 153 | Top | 74-79 | Push | 0 | 4 h 8 m | Show |
Ricky's 8* play on the under in Oklahoma vs Texas: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the defensive prowess of the home team is of particular significance. While Oklahoma's Trae Young is making headlines for his high scoring games, he's also struggled with turnovers. This looks like a difficult matchup for the freshman guard. Texas is allowing fewer than 65 points per game on average. Key Trends: - The under is 4-0 in the Sooners last 4 road games. - The under is 10-4-1 in the Longhorns last 15 games following a straight up loss. - The under is 9-2 in the Sooners last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Verdict: Take the UNDER 153 |
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02-02-18 | Brown v. Pennsylvania UNDER 148 | 90-95 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 32 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the under in Penn vs Brown: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the defensive prowess of the home team is of particular significance. Penn has held it's opponents to just 63 points per game at home. Penn has also allowed just 63 points per game over it's last five games overall, and gave up just 56 points in a home win over St. Joe's in it's last game. Key Trends: - The under is 4-0 in Pennsylvania's last four overall. - The under is 4-0 in the Quakers last four home games. - The under is 7-3-1 in the Quakers last 11 Friday games. Verdict: Take the UNDER 148 |
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02-01-18 | San Francisco v. St. Mary's UNDER 140.5 | 43-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the under in SMC vs San Francisco: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the defensive prowess of St. Mary's is of particular significance. The Gaels have allowed just 62.3 points per game at home. They gave up just 55 points in a home win over Portland in their last game, and they allowed just 46 points in a win over San Francisco in the last meeting in this series. Key Trends: - The under is 8-2 in St Mary's last 10 overall. - The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams. - The under is 4-2 in the Dons last six overall. Verdict: Take the UNDER 140.5 |
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02-01-18 | Thunder v. Nuggets UNDER 217.5 | Top | 124-127 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Ricky's 8* play on the under in OKC vs Denver: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the defensive prowess of Oklahoma City is of particular significance. The Thunder are ranked 4th overall in the NBA in opponent's scoring average. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games. Key Trends: - The Nuggets have gone under in five straight when coming off a win. - The under is 5-0-1 in OKC's last six vs a team with a winning record. - The under is 4-0 in the last four head to head meetings. Verdict: Take the UNDER 217.5 |
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02-01-18 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin UNDER 130 | Top | 60-52 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the under in NW vs Wisconsin: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the defensive prowess of Wisconsin is of particular significance. The Badgers have held the opposition to just 65.6 points per game at home. Unfortunately they have only managed to score 63.2 points per game over their last five. Northwestern scored less than 50 points in two of it's last three road games. Key Trends: - The Wildcats have gone under in five of their last six overall. - The Badgers have gone under in six of their last nine overall. - The Wildcats have gone under in seven of their last 11 road games. Verdict: Take the UNDER 130 |
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02-01-18 | Elon v. William & Mary OVER 154 | 92-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the OVER in Elon vs CWM: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the offensive prowess of the Tribe at home is of particular significance. William and Mary have scored 85.4 points per game at home, and they have allowed opponents to average 87.9 points per game. The Tribe are really struggling on defense, allowing 87.8 points per game over their last five overall. Key Trends: - The Tribe have gone over in seven of their last 10 overall. - The Phoenix have gone over in four straight road games. - The Tribe have gone over in 22 of their last 29 conference games. Verdict: Take the OVER 154 |
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01-31-18 | Maryland v. Purdue UNDER 149.5 | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the under in Purdue vs Maryland: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the defensive prowess of Purdue is of the most importance. The Boilermakers are only allowing 60 points per game at home, and they face a Maryland team that has failed to score an average of 70 points per game over it's last five overall. Purdue has held nine of it's last 10 opponents under 70 points. Key Trends: - The Boilermakers have failed to reach the total in seven of their last eight overall. - The under is 4-0 in Maryland's last four overall. - The under is 8-1 in Purdue's last nine versus the BIG10. Verdict: Take the UNDER 149.5 |
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01-31-18 | Florida State v. Wake Forest OVER 154.5 | 72-76 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Over in FSU vs Wake: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the poor defensive play of both these teams is the most glaring trend. Both the Seminoles and the Deacons are allowing over 80 points per game in their last five overall. While the Seminoles have scored an average of 91.6 points over their last five games, Wake Forest has struggled offensively. They are the home team here though, and they should be able to score their share against a below average FSU defense. Key Trends: - The Over is 5-0 in Seminoles last 5 overall. - The Over is 5-1 in Seminoles last 6 vs a team with a losing straight up record. - The last three head to head meetings all went over 154.5 points. Verdict: Take the OVER 154.5 |
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01-31-18 | La Salle v. Davidson UNDER 145 | Top | 65-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Under in LaSalle vs Davidson: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the Wildcats strong defensive play is what stands out. Davidson has held the opposition to just 61.3 points per game at home. Over their last five games they have only allowed an average of 58.8 points. Their last home game was a 66-63 loss to Richmond, and I expect another low scoring battle here in tonight's contest. Key Trends: - The under is 7-1 in Davidson's last eight overall. - The under is 3-0 in LaSalle's last three at Davidson. - The under is 12-4 in Davidson's last 16 home games. Verdict: Take the under 145 |
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01-30-18 | Baylor v. Oklahoma OVER 152.5 | 96-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Over in Baylor vs Oklahoma: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the offensive prowess of Oklahoma (1st nationally in scoring) and the defensive shortcomings of the Sooners (332nd nationally in opponent's scoring) is most significant. The Sooners have scored the majority of their points at home, where they are 10-0, and have averaged 97.5 points per game. Key Trends: - The over is 8-3 in Oklahoma's last 11 home games. - The over is 5-1 in the Sooners last 6 home games vs a team with a losing road record. - The over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. Verdict: Take the OVER 152.5 |
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01-30-18 | Thunder -3 v. Wizards | 96-102 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Oklahoma City Thunder: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the absence of John Wall is the most important factor. Wall has missed a dozen games this season, and the Wizards have lost seven of those 12 contests. Key Trends: - The Wizards have failed to cover in five straight home games. - The Wizards have only covered the spread once in the last seven meetings vs OKC. - The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs Eastern Conference teams. Verdict: Take the Thunder -3 |
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01-30-18 | North Carolina v. Clemson | Top | 78-82 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the UNC Tar Heels: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the absence of Donte Grantham, who was second on Clemson in points scored, and first in rebounds per game is most significant. Without him the Tigers suffered a humiliating loss to Virginia, and just barely beat unranked Georgia Tech. Key Trends: - The Tar Heels are 10-0 straight up in the last 10 meetings between these teams. - The Tar Heels are 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between the these teams. - The Tigers have failed to cover in six of their last eight vs ACC teams. Verdict: Take the Tar Heels (pickem) |
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01-27-18 | Kentucky v. West Virginia -8 | 83-76 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
West Virginia continues to impress and today they have the opportunity to run the score up against a team which everyone loves to beat in the Kentucky Wildcats. The Mountaineers deadly full court press will be on full display as their seasoned vets will look to force turnovers against the Wildcat freshman. How often have we seen Kentucky nearly double digit dogs over the last decade? West Virginia Mountaineers -8 |
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01-27-18 | Ole Miss v. Texas -6 | 72-85 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
The Longhorns welcome the Rebels on Saturday afternoon and the home court advantage is key in this matchup. The Rebels are 0-5 on the road this year and the Longhorns have lost only to Kansas and Michigan on their home floor. Both teams are looking for their first two straight wins in quite some time, and this situation strongly favours the home side. Texas Longhorns -6 |
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01-27-18 | Georgia v. Kansas State -7.5 | 51-56 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Oddsmakers may not be able to set this spread big enough, as the Wildcats are rolling right now and will look to stomp the visiting Bulldogs here today. Kansas State played itself into the NCAA tournament conversation with home wins over Oklahoma and TCU last week, followed by a road win at Baylor on Monday. The Wildcats have been excellent on the offensive end and it's been quite the opposite for the Bulldogs who rank 271st in the nation in points per game. Kansas State Wildcats -7.5 |
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01-27-18 | Baylor v. Florida -6.5 | 60-81 | Win | 100 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
Baylor is 7-8 since Thanksgiving and struggling to find any consistency, while Florida is 14-6 overall winning 8 of their last 10 against quality opponents and they are 6-2 in SEC Conference play only 0.5 games back from 1st place (Auburn). The Gators should be hungry coming off an unacceptable loss to South Carolina last time out. Florida Gators -6.5 |
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01-27-18 | Texas Tech v. South Carolina +3 | 70-63 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
South Carolina's fourth straight game against a ranked opponent should bode well for them today up against Texas Tech. The Gamecocks beat the Gators last time out and will look to build on that performance today. Meanwhile the Red Raiders recently lost senior Zach Smith and have dropped 3 of 5 since that time. South Carolina Gamecocks +3 |
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01-26-18 | Knicks v. Suns | 107-85 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* New York Knicks PK |
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01-26-18 | Clippers -3.5 v. Grizzlies | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Los Angeles Clippers -3.5 |
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01-25-18 | Knicks +188 v. Nuggets | 118-130 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
The Knicks covered against the Warriors Tuesday and actually lead at half believe it or not. Losers of 3 straight on this west coast road trip, expect a hungry and competitive Knicks squad tonight at the Pepsi Center in Denver knowing that dropping 4 straight will essentially derail any hopes they had on this road trip. Nuggets guard, Jamal Murray, has been red hot as of late, however the Knicks have a plethora of very good defensive guards who should be able to slow him down. That means the offense will likely have to go through Jokic who has a tough test up against the much taller 7'3" Porzingis. Additionally Porzingis will be motivated after not getting the All-Star start he felt he deserved. Despite the Knicks looking poor overall as of late, I expect them to steal at least one of their remaining four road games and tonight is a manageable win. New York Knicks on the moneyline |
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01-25-18 | Wizards +180 v. Thunder | 112-121 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
Double Wizard All-Stars John Wall and Bradley Beal come into Chesapeake Energy Arena Thursday night to face off against solo Thunder All-Star Russell Westbrook. With Paul George being a snub as an All-Star reserve selection, I feel like this creates an opportunistic betting opportunity. Whether George does deserve to be an All-Star is really besides the point in this situational bet, however the fact that he will try to do too much tonight plays into the hands of the Wizards. Westbrook, a defender of George not being selected, will also be prone to providing additional looks for George rather then being his natural aggressive self and ultimately changing the pace of the game. Certainly enough to warrant this game being able to go either way and therefore tonight's pick is on the underdog. Washington Wizards on the moneyline |
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01-24-18 | Celtics v. Clippers +1 | 113-102 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Los Angeles Clippers +1 |
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01-24-18 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 192 | 108-85 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Under 192 |
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01-23-18 | Knicks +16 v. Warriors | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* New York Knicks +16 |
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01-23-18 | Cavs -2 v. Spurs | 102-114 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Cleveland Cavaliers -2 |
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01-21-18 | Vikings -3 v. Eagles | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -100 | 73 h 27 m | Show |
This matchup is very interesting to me. First of all, let’s talk about the perception: The Eagles used their home field advantage, windy conditions and defense to beat an inefficient Falcons team 15-10 at home last week. Nick Foles didn’t get punished for bad throws and their defense did their job against laughable play-calling by Steve Sarkisian. I expected a close game and it was a solid win by the Eagles. But the perception on the Falcons was way too high which makes that win better than it was. Their run game got hyped, but it was basically just one solid drive. Overall, the Igglez had 3.0 yards per carry against a bad run defense. Nick Foles is a significant downgrade from Carson Wentz and the truth lies in the numbers over his sample size starting with the Giants game, the first game he was the starter. With Nick Foles, the Eagles offense produced 5.35 net yards per pass attempt which would rank 28th in the league, right ahead of the Colts, Browns, Packers and Ravens. With Nick Foles under center, the Eagles offense produced 3.5 yards per carry which would rank 30th in the league, right ahead of the Lions and Cardinals. With Nick Foles under center, the Eagles offense produced a 3rd down conversion rate of 30.2% which would rank 32nd in the league. Considering all that, they played vs the Giants, Raiders, Cowboys (3 drives) and the Falcons. The Vikings defense is way ahead of that bunch. The Vikings won against the Saints by a miracle. The truth is, the Vikings started off 17-0 and led the game for the first 57 minutes. One of the best offenses in the league took care of short fields and Drew Brees delivered some awesome throws against a tiring defense who lost their starting free safety. For the Saints getting a lead at any point during that game was almost a bigger miracle than the Diggs-touchdown at the end. The Vikes flat out dominated one of the best teams of 2017 for the major part of the game. The Vikings are the better team, period. The Eagles have been staying at home for a month now and I read a lot about how good their defense has been in their last four home games: 3 pts vs Bears, 10 pts vs Raiders, 6 pts vs Cowboys & 10 pts vs Falcons. The best offense of those four teams were the Falcons and they don’t really come close to the Vikings offense. Vikings OC Pat Shumur has implemented an efficient offense featuring two awesome WR's with great play-calling that just needs to be executed properly. Case Keenum does just that. This Vikings team presents a matchup the Eagles haven’t faced in weeks. The Eagles have a great offensive line, without a doubt. But it’s a different matchup than last week as the Vikings defense is a complete unit, provides great front four pressure, can stop the run and cover guys in space. The only weak spot on the Eagles line is LT Halapoulivaati Vaitai. He is going to line up against stud Everson Griffen and that’s a terrible matchup as Griffen is going to slide past Vaitai by speed and bull rushes. Vaitai just cannot handle him. That puts Nick Foles under consistent pressure from his blind side or forces Doug Pederson to double Griffen with a 6th OL, TE or RB. However he plays Griffen, it’s going to disrupt the Eagles’ gameplan a bit. Eagles are normally quite successful, but if they can’t run the ball efficiently on the Vikings front seven as I expect, Nick Foles is gonna be in a lot of long third down situations and that isn’t a good idea. The Vikings defense ranks 1st in third down conversion rate as they allow only 25% of third downs to be successful. On the flip side, the Vikings offense doesn’t have an easy matchup either. The Eagles have one of the best 4-3 defensive line in the league and they are going to win their fair share of matchups in the trenches against a Vikings offensive line that has been playing solid, but gave up a lot of pressures. Vikings will struggle to run and the Eagles will be able to move Keenum off his spot, but I give the Vikings a much better edge than the Eagles offense on the other side. Reason 1) Case Keenum’s 55.7% completion percentage under pressure has been the league’s best and his 10.7 sack conversion rate was the 2nd-best. Not only did Pat Shumur a good job with excellent scheming, Keenum also spent 2000+ plays in the virtual reality room, getting adjusted to every kind of situation / blitz / pressure and playing through all the plays again. Reports say that it helped him a lot. 2) The Vikings have maybe the best WR tandem in the league and they have a solid matchup against the Eagles CB's group. Shumur will put Keenum in pass-first situations and use the phenomenal quick route running of Diggs and the great ability to adjust at the catch point by Thielen to provide Keenum with a lot of quick options and also just 'throw it up' options. The Eagles defense will absolutely get their stops and they are also good to pick Case Keenum off, but the passing efficiency and the great opening drive scripts by Shumur might just be too overwhelming for them. The stadium is going to go nuts and the Philly crowd will bring the hammer with all the shepard masks. However, the weather conditions aren’t an advantage for the Eagles this time as weather reports call for 40°F and almost no winds. That favours the Vikings passing offense again. Nick Foles will struggle more than Case Keenum, the Vikings defense will create more stops and possibilities for turnovers. The Vikings offense should be able to score in the 20's and should stand much tougher with a lead than they did last week against the Saints. Vikings win this one and I am expecting a 24-13 kind of score. Minnesota Vikings -3 |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles UNDER 39 | 7-38 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 57 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Under 39 |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots UNDER 46.5 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 70 h 54 m | Show |
Between their games vs Bills and Steelers, no one believed in the Jaguars. They were a better team than the Steelers in terms of efficiency and showed up big time at Pittsburgh. Now everyone believes in them again and Jalen Ramsey is already talking about the Super Bowl. It’s fascinating how the perception changes and the Jaguars are a prime example because their variance over the season has been extremely high. We saw a total of 97 points last Sunday but I am expecting a completely different game this time at Foxboro. A low scoring game. The Patriots defense got shredded the first six games, allowing 400+ yards in each of those. Since week 7, they allowed 400+ yards just once, at Pittsburgh. Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia did a great job adjusting their defense towards playing highly efficient. The Patriots defense ranks #1 in yards per point – they find ways to not lot opponents score. Since the game against the Panthers, they have given up 20+ points just twice in 13 games. Belichick knows how to attack opposing weaknesses and rob strengths. He will stack the box, play a lot of QB contain and will likely show a lot of cover 1 looks with man coverage. He will force Bortles to straight up beat them with his accuracy and I highly doubt that Bortles will be able to do that. He is at his best when playing off play-action behind an efficient run game and the Pats will try their best to shut down the run game. They held Derrick Henry to 2.3 yards per carry last week which made Mariota force a lot of throws. I don’t see the Jaguars offense scoring 20+ in this one, I see more field goals than touchdowns. The most interesting part is the flip side – Pats offense vs Jaguars defense. The Jaguars are at their best when they are lined up vs 3+ WR's. Teams like the Niners or Titans played a lot of 12 / 21 / 22 personnel against the Jaguars and were highly successful. The Patriots will know that. They won’t attack Bouye and Ramsey on the outside. They also don’t have WR's like Martavis Bryant or Antonio Brown who make great adjustments towards the catch point. I expect the Pats to look to run it up the gut and come out in a lot of 12 or 21 personnel with 2 WR's lining up outside and tie up Ramsey and Bouye. Then they are going to use a lot of pre-snap motions to identify coverages and find their matchups in the short passing game via Gronk, Burkhead, Lewis and White. Stretch the field, send Gronk down the seam and pick your matchups. With runs and short passes, the Pats are likely to control / eat the clock which is a huge bonus for a low scoring game. At the end it’s still the Jaguars defense with tremendous front-four pressure against an average offensive line so it’s not that I expect the Pats to score every drive. The Jaguars will make stops. But I also don’t see them going high-pace on offense. I really expect a low scoring affair with the Pats coaching staff dominating the matchup and Blake Bortles. It’s not that I do not see any chance of an upset, because the Jags have been a highly efficient team over the course of the season (equally efficient to the Pats). I think Pats at home should get it done in a low scoring affair. Under 46.5 *Update* Brady's injured finger boasts well for this pick. |
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01-15-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +6 | 118-108 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Cleveland Cavaliers +6 |
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01-15-18 | Knicks v. Nets OVER 211 | 119-104 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Over 211 |
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01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings -4 | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 95 h 37 m | Show |
I think Vikes are the slightly better overall team with a brutal defense and a good offensive system. Saints D has obviously been regressing quite a bit with those injuries and depth. Bucs and Panthers moved the ball pretty well on them through the air, but the Vikings have a better offense than both of them currently. Vikes got decent OL play, an average rushing attack (has regressed without Cook), but a very efficient passing attack. The X-factor obviously is Case Keenum, but Pat Shumur had two weeks to prepare his team with concepts to attack the Saints. Keenum is always good for an interception and that risk is higher than for Brees, but this offense is so well-designed and Diggs / Thielen are phenomenal pass-catchers who make adjustments to the ball, that Keenums mistakes are rarely punished. The Saints could and likely will sell out way more against the run to make Keenum beat them. Panthers were able to stop the run vs Saints and NO had their worst rushing output this year, but Panthers didn’t have the secondary to compete with the Saints. Vikings can stop the run and have the secondary. They have enough speed on their front seven to contain Kamara in space and their 3rd down / red zone defense is elite. I trust Mike Zimmer that he put together a lot of disguised coverages to rob the Saints of certain strengths on certain plays to make Brees uncomfortable. Vikes have not allowed more than 19 points all season long and that 19 was against the Saints. They won’t be able to shut down that offense, but I think the ceiling for the Saints is around 20 points in this one. Mike Zimmer with the Vikes is 30-4 SU and 31-2-1 ATS when his team scores 21+ points. Minny have one of the greatest home fields in the league, it’s gonna be very loud which might cause some flags. The Vikes have the defense to slow down a good offense and they have the offense to put up points. I lean the home side here at something like a 24-20 / 27-21 or even 28-17 game. Minnesota Vikings -4 |
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01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings UNDER 47 | 24-29 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 1 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Under 47 |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 91 h 11 m | Show |
What’s going on with the Jaguars offense? Not that they ever were a unit to be afraid of with Blake Bottles at QB, but they had a very decent stretch where his weaknesses have been masked. During the last couple games, they showed complete regression, even worse than everything I could have expected. This is a top-5 offense vs the No. 1 defense so this matchup should be exciting. The Steelers will show the same gameplan on defense than the Bills: completely sell out vs the run and make Bortles beat them. From weeks 1-12, PIT D ranked 4th in yards per drive. Without Ryan Shazier who left early game 13, the Steelers rank just 29th and played offenses like BAL, CLE, HOU, (NE), CIN. That’s a huge loss and should actually do the Jags a favor. The Steelers had big issues in the first Jaguars game with poor play-calling. Overall, Haley looked lost a lot of times during the year that made the Steelers offense inefficient. The Steelers have one of the best offensive lines in the league, so the battle in the trenches is gonna be highly interesting. The Jaguars should still find ways to force a lot of three and outs, because their personnel allows them to attack opponents in various ways. This game is going to be cold (°17 F) and likely ugly because both offenses want to avoid the opposing passing defense. If the Jaguars plays on an average level, I really like the touchdown + hook spread. Hackett might try a few long bombs (also off PA) at the very beginning to test the Steelers defense and keep them honest. Jaguars might be able to keep it close with their defense and they could have a decent shot if they can exploit the Shazier-less defense. Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 |
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01-13-18 | Titans v. Patriots OVER 47 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 74 h 23 m | Show |
Pats at home in the divisional round is usually a no-brainer: since their last loss vs the Jets in 2011, they went 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in that round. But this game is interesting because we don’t know which offense is gonna show up from Tennessee, Mularkey's or Mariota's. There were rumours that Mariota started calling the plays by his own since the 2nd quarter at Kansas City. The No-huddle up-tempo offense from shotgun is perfectly suited for Mariota, but Mularkey desperately wants to rely on his ground-and-pound approach. He wants to run the ball on 1st and 2nd down with DeMarco Murray and let Mariota make a precise pass on 3rd down from a tight formation. It’s not a surprise that Mariota has four game-winning drives this season because on game-winning drives he is put into an up-tempo offense from shotgun and can dictate the offense by himself. He is a very good pocket passer and showed that at Kansas City in “his” offense. I also believe that Derrick Henry is a better and more efficient runner than DeMarco Murray. The Mariota-offense is definitely capable of putting up points at New England, the Mularkey offense will be out coached from start to finish. New England has a highly efficient defense by yards per point – they somehow avoid being scored on. The Patriots’ front seven isn’t great and they are lacking speed. I think the Titans’ offensive line has a very solid matchup and a few Mariota runs could absolutely take care for some damage and first downs.The Chiefs offense showed a great gameplan in the first half against the Titans as they tried to avoid that good run defense (4th in YPC, 7th in DVOA) and moved the ball through the air. KC receivers had a few costly drops, otherwise they would have scored a TD more. The Patriots are going to do the same: pass the ball, avoid the opponent’s strength. They will pick their matchups and the zone blitz scheme by Dick LeBeau is generally something Tom Brady highly prefers to play against. I don’t think the Pats will have any troubles moving the ball through the air because there isn’t anything the Titans can throw at Brady IMO. If the Titans play Mariota-ball, they can be competitive in that game, but if they wake up too late, it could be over too soon. Patriots also don’t want to be the Chiefs all over again and they know that it’s hard to run the clock down vs the Titans so I expect them to look to score early and often. I think this game could end up in the 50's, because the Pats are capable to score 30+ and the Titans have a solid matchup as soon as they play Mariota ball and they should get garbage time opportunities in no-huddle mode if they lose in the fourth quarter. Over 47 |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 41.5 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 71 h 30 m | Show |
The Falcons defense has been the key as they played the run pretty aggressively and played tight against those Rams WR's. A couple of special teams turnovers helped for field position. I am expecting a close game at Philly in the divisional round. The Eagles obviously aren’t the same without Carson Wentz. Wentz is able to avoid 2-3 sacks/throwaways per game because of his crazy ability of scrambling away from pressure. I don’t think that offense is lost, but Foles is a downgrade from Wentz. With the way the Falcons are playing on defense right now, it’s tough for me to see the Eagles moving the ball efficiently. They must try to take pressure off Foles. They have to try to not win the game with him, but the rest has to work to let Foles deal with the last 20%. I trust Doug Pederson to put together a competitive offensive gameplan, but with Nick Foles, he will be somehow limited. On offense, Atlanta will have a big advantage against the Eagles secondary because their cornerbacks are the weak spot and Julio Jones should feast on them. Eagles have a stout defense with a great defensive line and they rank 7th in pass DVOA / 3rd in run DVOA, so we shouldn’t expect the Falcons to move the ball easily on the ground to grind it out like at Los Angeles. All season, the Falcons had their issues in key situations like red zone, as they only convert 50% of their trips into touchdowns for rank 23rd. I think both teams will struggle to score many points. If the Eagles play tough on defense, get the home crowd going and take pressure off of Foles by getting their running game going, they will be in a very good position to succeed, however the value lies on the total. Under 41.5 |
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01-10-18 | Heat v. Pacers -4.5 | 114-106 | Loss | -103 | 1 h 16 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Indiana Pacers -4.5 |
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01-09-18 | Heat +4 v. Raptors | 90-89 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Pick Only* Miami Heat +4 |
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01-08-18 | Nuggets v. Warriors OVER 226 | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 2 h 2 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Over 226 |
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01-08-18 | Alabama -3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -105 | 123 h 0 m | Show |
Nick Chubb and Sony Michel ripped the Oklahoma defense to pieces with big runs countering the Sooners’ incredible offense inflicted upon them for most of the game. Can the Dawgs get the run game cooking against the brick wall that is the Alabama defense? I think it will be tough sleding. Bama is now ranked an amazing 1-1-1-1 in terms of total defense, rushing defense, pass efficiency defense and scoring defense. Ridiculous. They played like their hair was on fire last week vs Clemson but face a new challenge this week in the form of two future NFL RB's. Maybe more if you include their depth. QB Jake Fromm has been truly special as a true freshman playing big time football in their biggest games. Fromm has an excellent 23-5 TD to INT ratio and can make all the throws. The good news is that Fromm does not provide much (if any) threat running the football and they do not have to account for a running QB. You can argue that Clemson needed to take some additional deep shots vs Bama, but it was clear early on that the pressure inflicted by the pass rush was going to make that very difficult. The Alabama offense is not pretty, yet somehow they are ranked #27 in the FBS in total offense and #10 running the football. The passing game is not sexy, but they have one of the best WR's in college football (Calvin Ridley – 59, 935 4 TD) and Jalen Hurts has only thrown one INT all season. ROLL TIDE is ranked #8 in passing efficiency. Hurts can also hurt you with his mobility and provides excellent balance with the 1-2 RB punch of D Harris and B Scarbrough. Those three men have bagged 27 rushing TD's so far this season. It is going to be tough sledding vs the tough GA defense (#31 FBS, #8 vs run) and do not be alarmed by the performance vs Oklahoma. The Sooners had a devastating offense and Bama provides a much more conventional attack that they can handle. It should be noted that Bama has the experience edge playing in more big games and Saban has won 5 of these Championships. They also have: 1) insane defense 2) mobility at QB 3) better spot for Alabama (GA – off 2-OT, travel). I'd give Bama a slight edge in terms of probability of creating disruptive and big plays on defense. Alabama -3.5 |
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01-07-18 | Panthers v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 26-31 | Loss | -108 | 120 h 45 m | Show |
Some people say it’s tough to beat a team three times a year. That situation occurred six times and the teams who won both previous matchups went 4-2. The Saints have dominated the Panthers twice this year for obvious reasons: they are much better in the single most important category: passing efficiency. Saints are 2nd in QBPR diff, Panthers are a horrendous 24th. The Panthers are an 8.5ish win team by Pythagorean. During their last six games they went 4-2, but in 3 of those 4 losses they were out gained in passing efficiency. They caught the Vikes in their 3rd straight road game and should have lost vs NYJ & TB. This matchup has the biggest discrepancy on my board. The Panthers will most likely get RG Trai Turner back which is huge for the offense, but they don’t have a decent passing attack. Over the second half of the season they have been leaning on the run game (Newton leads his team in rushing yards) and Christian McCaffrey in the short passing game. I don’t see how they stay within 7 in this matchup. Devin Funchess has emerged as their best WR, but he will be locked down by Marshon Lattimore. With Byrd going to IR, Newton doesn’t have options to throw to. The Saints can focus on Newton & Christian McCaffrey to force throws to Olsen or any WR. While the Panthers defense is decent, they seem not to figure out a plan to stop this Saints offense. To be competitive in this game they have to stop the Saints, but it’s a lot to ask for because that offense is so diverse: dominant run game, one of the most explosive RB in the passing game, Tedd Ginn to stretch the field and Michael Thomas who catches everything. It’s really tough to contain that offense who have scored 19+ every time this year. The Panthers need to create key turnovers and key stops to stay in this game, but I highly doubt it. Sean Payton will have his offense ready in the dome. As soon as the Panthers are behind they get forced to throw more often and that’s where Cam Newton will be limited with that kind of supporting cast he has. An efficient run game isn’t enough in the playoff. Saints should control the passing game on both sides of the ball and come up with a win of more than a touchdown here. New Orleans Saints -6.5 |
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01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars -8 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -105 | 115 h 5 m | Show |
The Jaguars were as a surprising team as the Rams. The defense has been playing historically well, especially their pass defense. Their run defense started as the worst early in the season, but got a significant boost when they traded for Marcell Dareus. Their pass defense is amazing – brutal front-four pressure combined with good coverage on the back end by Ramsey & Bouye and a linebacking corp that can cover a lot of ground. This is a textbook pass defense. Their offense is build to pound Fournette with a solid offensive line that had some injury issues during the season but is back healthy now. The pass offense has shown some flashes here and there with great route combinations, Allen Hurns and those speedy undrafted WR's. The Jaguars had some heavy regression the last two weeks (on the road though!) on either side of the ball, getting shredded by Jimmy and Shanahan and throwing lots of picks because they were forced the throw. The Jags want to play with a lead to make the life for Bortles as easy as possible. Fortunately, they can make his life very easy this week because they play against the Bills. The Bills don’t belong into the playoffs, period. They are a truly a 6-10 team. They have the highest difference in the league between pythagorean wins and actual wins. Obviously the one Peterman half was awful, but their D got shredded that game and Taylor took care of not losing so high. During the first half of the season they created a lot of key turnovers which led to wins over bad teams (Raiders, Bucs, Broncos) and they have that one underrated QB who consistently makes the best out of that bad offense. For raw stats guys: Taylor has 14 TD & 4 INT on the year. Sean McDermott lets his defense play very reactive with a zone-heavy scheme. That works well against not-so-good offenses, but they got killed by NO, LAC, NE (2x). Also the Bucs and Jets (2nd game) had a good one against that defense. Even though they are solid against the pass, they cannot defend the run to save their lives. This is a terrible matchup for them against a Jaguars offense that has a run-first approach, has a healthy offensive line and has Fournette back after sitting out a few games. Here is the game script: The Bills defense will struggle against the Jags’ run offense and as the game goes on, they will have to stack the box to not let the Jags run away with the lead and the clock. The Jaguars will jump a lead via defense, field position and their run game. As underrated as Taylor is, he cannot carry that offense against good defenses, because he doesn’t have any decent WR's (Kelvin Benjamin isn’t one), has a bad pass protection and the run game is bad because McCoy gets older, the offensive line is decimated and they don’t have an efficient Mike Gillislee in the rotation. The Jaguars can play the box with a high emphasis, because the Bills’ passing game will be non-efficient. It’s a complete mismatch for them. WR's and TE's will be locked down, McCoy is banged up and the Jaguars can even put a spy on Taylor because they don’t have to shade coverage to known QB-WR connections. I expect the Jaguars to completely shut down the Bills on offense and use short fields and Fournette to score a couple times in the first half and make Bortles comfortable and put him into some read-option and play action kind of plays that could lead to big gains. Jaguars are a top-5 playoff team by efficiency metrics and even Bortles cannot punish them this time. They are at home, first playoff game in years and they have the superior matchup against a team that should rather be 6-10 than 9-7. JAX have dominated bad teams this season and I expect them to do the same against the Bills. Jaguars will dominate this game from start to finish and I wouldn’t be surprised if they come close to a shutout. Jacksonville Jaguars -8 |
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01-06-18 | Falcons v. Rams -6 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -105 | 124 h 36 m | Show |
The turnaround of the Los Angeles Rams has been fascinating. The offensive line is not elite, but they are good enough to execute Sean McVay's offense. McVay has made Todd Gurley the focus point of his offense (2100 scrimmage yards, 4.7 YPC, 60+ rec, 12.3 YPR, 19 total TD's) and has installed a scheme in which WR1 Sammy Watkins takes away the opponent’s best CB with coverage shades and allows guys like Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee and Todd Gurley to thrive by attacking certain coverage schemes with route combinations that are also relatively easy to read for Jared Goff. Goff hasn’t turned into an elite QB, but much more towards an average QB who executes a great scheme with great personnel (see Case Keenum in Minnesota). The most underrated aspect of McVay's work is that he understood that Tavon Austin is a bad WR with bad hands. Austin went from 107 targets & 44 punt returns in 2016 to 10 and 17 in 2017. McVay uses Pharoh Cooper as a punt returner and Austin as a runner (55 carries / 4.5 YPC) and more importantly as a threat to the run on end arounds. As soon as Austin fakes an end around, the opposing defense has to account for it, which opens up a little bit more space for runs and play-fakes. He took away every responsibility of Austin to catch passes. This offense is tough to defend for any defense. As a defense you need to provide Jared Goff with brutal front-four pressure and your front seven needs to be good against the run and quick in space. The Seahawks in week 5, the Redskins (highest pressure rate in the league; were healthy in week 2), the Vikings and the Jaguars were able to play like that and they had quite that success, turning into four losses for the Rams. The defense started very slow this year, adjusting to DC Wade Philips’ 3-4 formation and with Aaron Donald not practicing with the team until week 2, but they have been improving throughout the year I don’t think the Falcons are a true playoff team. They have a lot of close wins, could have / should have lost vs Bears, Hawks, Saints first game, Lions. They are the only team in the NFL this year that got a win when throwing 3 picks, and even better, they won two of them. Matt Ryan is having a crazy regression year, the offensive line isn’t as good as last year, other WR's other than Julio are regressing because they aren’t schemed open as they were under Shanny. The defense plays highly conservatively, trying to keep the offense in front of them. Each unit has some quality pieces, but as a whole they don’t really play highly efficient. Their defense has a bad matchup against one of the best offenses in the league. The Rams offensive line is going to win in the trenches and dictate the matchup for the better part of the game, which is very important for Jared Goff. McVay can make Gurley his focus point to get the defense account for him. This will open up the whole playbook and I expect the Rams to show us their arsenal. If the Falcons need to play Gurley, it will open up space and matchups for the TE's and WR's if Sammy Watkins draws coverage from Desmond Trufant. I expect the Rams to attack that defense on all levels of the field and move the ball downfield. If they don’t screw up red zone opportunities, it should be an easy day for the offense. The Falcons should make their priority attacking the ground game, but that can only work in a low scoring affair in which Atlanta controls the clock. Because I expect the Rams to score a lot, the Falcons might be forced to throw the ball too early. However, I expect Wade Philips and a well-rested top-5 Rams defense to come up with a good game plan to contain a Falcons offense that has been struggling in key situations throughout the season. Aaron Donald is going to line up against the Falcons guards who are absolutely the weak spots on that offensive line and he is going to wreck havoc. Rams have a superior offensive matchup and should have enough defensive quality and brain to match up well here. Rams roll, expecting something like a 34-21 kind of game. Los Angeles Rams -6 |
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01-04-18 | Thunder v. Clippers +2 | 127-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Los Angeles Clippers +2 |
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01-04-18 | Warriors -5 v. Rockets | 124-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Golden State Warriors -5 |
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01-03-18 | Raptors v. Bulls +5 | 124-115 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
Subscriber Only Pick Chicago Bulls +5 |
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01-03-18 | Rockets v. Magic UNDER 218.5 | 116-98 | Win | 100 | 2 h 37 m | Show | |
Subscriber Only Pick Under 218.5 |
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01-01-18 | Alabama v. Clemson +3 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Roll Tide has the #8 rushing offense in the FBS and are going to do their best to hammer the Clemson defense into submission. The Harris/Bo combo has tallied 1400+ yards rushing, and when you include the mobility of Hurts (768, 8 TD), Bama's running game is a real force and will be the key to the game for the offense. They are a bit limited in the passing game with only one proven weapon (Calvin Ridley 896, 3 TD) and will have to find a way to make the ground game work so that the Clemson offense stays off the field. QB Jalen Hurts is a proven winner and very smart with the football (15-1 TD to INT), but he must hit some big plays in the passing game for them to win this game. Clemson brings the #2 scoring defense and #6 total defense into this epic trilogy match-up. The defense does it all. #3 in the FBS in sacks per game. #6 in TFL. Great vs the run and the pass. 5th in the FBS on 3rd downs. Clemson has allowed 3.12 yards per carry and just 5 rushing TD's all season long. Compare that to previous years as such 2016: 3.70 and 20; 2015: 3.54 and 18. It seems that the Tigers are well positioned for this game. The Tigers have a very balanced offense and rank #30 in the FBS overall. QB Kelly Bryant had an excellent first season completing 67% of his passes with 13 TD's and only 6 INT's (362 attempts). He has also rushed for 646 yards and 11 TD's in his spare time. RB's T Feaster and T Etienne combined for 1,400 yards and 20 TD's. The passing game is very diverse with reliable Deon Cain leading the team with 659 yards receiving. They lack the #1 devastating force a la Mike Williams last season, but they are just as hard to defend this year with plenty of options. Clemson +3 |
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01-01-18 | Bucks +6 v. Raptors | 127-131 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Milwaukee Bucks +6 |
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01-01-18 | Central Florida v. Auburn -9.5 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -109 | 113 h 12 m | Show |
If Auburn runs their offense and doesn’t cough it up with turnovers it seems likely they get well into the 40's. Auburn had the #25 offense in the FBS and were #22 rushing. The passing attack did not pick up tons of yards, but they were very efficient (#10 FBS) with QB J Stidham throwing 17 TD's and just 4 INT's at 8.6 yards per attempt. Sure, there is a lot of short stuff, but they can bomb away once the run gets established. WR Ryan Davis grabbed 76 passes and WR Darius Slayton averaged 24 yards per grab. RB Kerryon Johnson had eight 100-yard rushing games. He was banged up near the end of the season and still almost led them to an SEC title. He is good to go for this game. Just to give you a frame of reference for how impressive the Auburn offense was – they played 6 games against top 12 defenses. Alabama, Georgia x 2, Clemson, Mississippi St and LSU. The Knights finished up the regular season with a perfect 12-0 record. The issue however isn't their offense, it's the defense. They were #93 ranked defense. They are ranked #81 in yards per play defense and #77 on 3rd downs. They do not get adequate D-Line push (#92 sacks per game; #79 TFL per game) and should not provide much resistance to Auburn if the Tigers play up to expectations. Note: their starting LT is out. Auburn is by far the sternest test of the season. Auburn has the #13 defense in the FBS and they are sound vs the run and the pass. They are also #3 in the SEC in sacks per game and can get to the quarter back with only four guys. They are excellent on 3rd downs (#18 FBS). The Tigers should be able to limit long drives and just need to limit the number of big plays. This feels like a game Auburn should win quite easily. Their offense has potential to explode and the defense will get enough stops. I am going to roll with the team that happened to beat Georgia and Alabama. Auburn -9.5 |
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12-31-17 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -9.5 | Top | 26-24 | Loss | -105 | 93 h 16 m | Show |
Seahawks found life last week and I don’t see them dropping this one. They are the most dangerous team heading into the playoffs right now. Seattle has had major injuries mid-way through the season and struggled mightily because of it, but similar to the Patriots early in the season, very good coaching is able to find ways to mask those injuries after a couple of games - as long as they have a well implemented system in place. The Seahawks still have the 2nd best defense heading into the NFC postseason in my opinion. No reason to wait for the possibility of them getting in to make some money off them, as they should be able to slaughter Arizona here. The Cardinals will have a very hard time scoring in this matchup. Seattle rolls. Seattle Seahawks -9.5 |
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12-31-17 | Bills v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -120 | 93 h 13 m | Show |
The Dolphins are a completely different animal at home where they are 4-2 SU (without London) and 5-1 ATS, beating opponents by 5 PPG. At home, they rank top-15 or even better in yards per pass diff and QBPR diff, just for instance. Adam Gase publicly called out his players, saying they are playing for their jobs the last two weeks. He also publicly said that he let owner Stephen Ross down. The reason is that they signed retired Jay Cutler to play QB, but that’s a different story. The Fins have a shot to play for their jobs and bring Stephen Ross a little smile by spoiling the Bills’ playoff hopes. Buffalo is also a different animal on the road where they are 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS, losing by a whopping 8.9 PPG. I think the Dolphins will get it done, but I'll take the field goal insurance. Miami Dolphins +3 |
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12-31-17 | Saints -6.5 v. Bucs | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 11 m | Show |
Saints are the toughest matchup the Bucs have faced in weeks and the Saints are playing for home field advantage in the wild card round. Bucs are without OJ Howard, refuse to involve Cameron Brate somehow and are likely without Desean Jackson again. That leaves Mike Evans against Marshon Lattimore and the latter dominated that matchup in the first game so much so that Evans got ejected for throwing a punch. Saints should roll here. New Orleans Saints -6.5 |
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12-31-17 | Panthers v. Falcons -3.5 | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 93 h 8 m | Show | |
The Falcons got short in the first matchup. They outgained the Panthers in significant key metrics, but just came up short. They were up 10-0, but guided the Panthers the way with costly turnovers that led to short fields. The Panthers were outplayed in the passing game by the Jets, Vikings, Saints and Bucs but got punished only once. I usually like to bet teams in rematches who should have won the first time because it tells you they have a decent matchup and correct some of their mistakes in the rematch. Another point is that the Panthers can still play for the 2nd seed, but the Vikings play in the early slate. So if the Vikings win, the Panthers would need Saints or Rams to lose to jump a seed. I don’t know if they are going to bring all the intensity and don’t pull out starters late if they know they cannot get a bye. With a huge lack at WR now, the Falcons have a solid matchup with their corners, and should be able to focus on Newton & CMC runs. Falcons at home should win by a TD. Atlanta Falcons -3.5 |
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12-31-17 | Redskins v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 10-18 | Win | 100 | 90 h 60 m | Show |
Cousins is playing for a new contract and Gruden wants to end the season on a positive note after all the injuries. Giants went from a true playoff contender to a 2-13 team. However, the Giants come off a shutout loss on the road to play their last home game in front of their home fans. Will they show up? What happens to Eli Manning? Is it his last game and the team gets motivated to play for him? The Redskins defense is day and night in home/road. They give up the fewest yards per pass at home but the 3rd highest yards per pass on the road. Allowing the 2nd lowest QBPR at home, the 9th-highest on the road. I think there is a chance the Giants win straight up, but with more than a field goal insurance this is the safer play. New York Giants +3.5 |
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12-30-17 | Washington v. Penn State -1.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
Penn State have a really balanced attack and will face a stern challenge on Saturday. They boast two of the best players in college football in QB Trace McSorley (3,228, 26-8 TD to INT; 11 rushing TDs) and RB Saquon Barkley (1,134 rushing yards, 16 TD; 47 receptions). They also have a solid WR group and deadly receiving TE in Mike Gesicki (9 TDs). Four players have 500+ receiving yards. The big issue has been the offensive line. They were dead LAST in the Big 10 in TFL allowed per game and Barkley was really bottled up when facing elite defenses. Washington may fall into that category as they are the #1 run defense in the FBS and #5 defense overall. The Huskies can bring pressure (38 sacks) and Penn St will have to establish the run and stay out of 3rd and long. An offense with all kinds of weapons and Mayfield Jr at QB going up against a rock solid stop unit. The Huskies are not as deep on offense, but they still have the necessary trio to make things work. QB Jake Browning is smart and accurate (69% completions; 5 INT), Myles Gaskin is a true #1 RB (1,282 rushing yards, 19 TD) and Dante Pettis had over 700 yards receiving. Penn St also boasts a solid defense (#7 scoring FBS) that can get after the QB (38 sacks) and make stops on 3rd downs. A huge key to this game is the ability of Washington to run the football on the #15 rushing defense. Penn St has the ability to make things work in the passing game if the run game is not working. The Huskies will need Gaskin to keep the chains moving and give Browning time to hit plays downfield. It was a tough loss in the Rose Bowl last season for Penn. They should be jacked up to win on a big stage against a 10-win team. Barkley decided to play in this game and that has to give the troops a boost. I am going to roll with the team that faced three really good defenses (Ohio St, Michigan, Sparty) and managed to score 38,24 and 41 points). I prefer the variety of weapons on the Penn St side and the mobility at QB. I am also skeptical of the schedule that Washington faced and are particularly concerned given the way the PAC 12 has crapped the bed in bowl games so far (UCLA, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona St, Oregon, Washington St). The Big 10 has looked good so far (Purdue, Sparty, Iowa, Northwestern. Penn St just needs to avoid a lot of negative plays to win this game by 7+. Penn State -1.5 |
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12-28-17 | Michigan State +2.5 v. Washington State | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 240 h 15 m | Show |
The Cougers will be without their top-2 WR for this game as both have left the team. They have depth in the group, but it probably cannot be a good thing to be without your two most productive receivers (combined for 14/35 of teams TD receptions). The running game is pretty much non-existent (#128 FBS) and they were also dead last in the PAC 12 in sacks per game allowed. Falk is a fine QB, but has the mobility of a glacier. They have to get the ball out quick to their talented guys and let the big plays happen. Michigan St’s defense is very good (#9 FBS, #5 vs run, #13 pass efficiency defense). The Michigan St run D has been really good against all, but elite rushing teams and it feels as though Washington St will need a premium day from Falk to win this affair. QB Brian Lewerke can play and he has an underrated group of WR's with which to work with. He also has some good mobility (#2 team in rushing; 5 rushing TD's) which is handy for keeping drives alive. Lewerke makes mistakes and has issues with accuracy sometimes, but he is more than capable of having a good game against a tough defense. The running game has been a bit of a disappointment, but LJ Scott can do some damage if he gets going early in the contest. Washington St was very good against the pass and decent enough vs the run this year although they did allow 23 rushing TDs. The Spartans should be able to have a balanced attack. Sparty has to figure out a way to consistently win 1st and 2nd down. It will help that Cougers’ star DL Mata’afa is suspended for the first half due to a targeting violation. Both defenses are good enough to win games by themselves, but I prefer the balance on the offensive side of the ball for Michigan St. I also give the edge in the Head Coach department to Dantonio. He is even better when playing the underdog card. Michigan State +2.5 |
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12-27-17 | Missouri -2.5 v. Texas | Top | 16-33 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
Missouri -2.5 Full analysis coming soon! |
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12-25-17 | Rockets v. Thunder OVER 217 | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
*Subscriber only pick* |
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12-25-17 | Steelers v. Texans +10 | 34-6 | Loss | -115 | 139 h 58 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Houston Texans +10 |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -4.5 | Top | 21-12 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 54 m | Show |
Zeke is back. The Cowboys offense will be back. The Seahawks defense won’t be back. Not only is the Hawks defense playing like a bottom-10 unit right now with all the injuries, they also seem to have some locker room issues and some clueless coaches. Earl Thomas publicly called out Bobby Wagner for playing limited through injury and Wagner responded harsh on Twitter. Pete Carroll didn’t have an excuse or explanation for not pulling Wilson out of the game. He looked clueless. It looks like he doesn’t have the fire right now and is a little bit disengaged. Now they travel to Dallas to play a Cowboys team that just got its sh*t together with Sean Lee back and is licking its chops with Zeke coming back. Zeke completely alters the offense and I think the Cowboys have a superior matchup for the Seahawks this week. Wagner needed to leave the game last week after not being able to run sideline to sideline so I can’t expect him to be ready to go this week. Bobby Wagner injured or not playing is a terrible loss, especially against a diverse offense as the Cowboys will be with Zeke back. The Hawks defense won’t be able to close out the space and they don’t have the corners to cover Dez Bryant in the red zone. The Boys will play away from Earl Thomas and try to exploit all the matchups in the short passing game and Dez in isolation. Seahawks won’t have any answers for that offense and I doubt they can play catch-up with that offensive line (DAL defense ranks 2nd in pressure rate) and without a running game. Wilson had one magic game and that’s about it. The Boys offense can impose its will and kill the clock in the second half to avoid any kind of Wilson magic. Seeing some kind of Boys win in the range of 31-17. Dallas Cowboys -4.5 |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars -4 v. 49ers | Top | 33-44 | Loss | -102 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
Jimmy Garoppolo this, Jimmy Garoppolo that. All I am hearing about the Niners is how Jimmy G is the savior of the Niners. Let’s sum up the last three weeks: Niners played the Bears, Texans and Titans. The best defense of the bunch is Chicago and that isn't saying much. The Niners barely won and scored five field goals for 15 points. The other two games were against the 18th and 22nd ranked defenses. Neither of these defenses were able to exploit the Niners’ weaknesses – their OL and WRs. Also neither of these offenses was able to score enough. Thanks Tennessee HC Mike Mularkey, the Niners had a chance to beat the Titans on Sunday. Kudos to Jimmy & Kyle Shanahan – they did a great job winning all three games and making the Niners offense look alive again. What you don’t see in the stats is Garoppolos passion for throwing passes straight to defenders. There were like 8 passes that could have been intercepted over the last two weeks but defenders just didn’t make a play – regression incoming. This week there is a completely different animal coming to town. The Jacksonville Jaguars are looking like the most complete AFC team right now. The defense has been playing in its own league and is putting up better passing efficiency than the 2013 Seahawks. Over their three-game winning stretch, the Niners have +1.0 net yards per play which ranks 6th. Over their three-game winning stretch, the Jaguars have +1.7 net yards per play which ranks 2nd. It took me a few weeks to get away from the “As long as Blake Bortles is the QB, that team is going nowhere” thinking. That offense looks as solid as it gets and they are very well coached. Last Sunday they were without their three best WR's and best RB and they steamrolled the Texans. OC Nathaniel Hackett is doing an awesome job, making Blake Bortles look comfortable. Over the course of the season, this offense ranks exactly average. Since week 7, Bortles has 12 passing TD's, 2 rushing TD's and 3 INT's. The most surprising aspect is how the offensive line has been performing. They rank 5th in adjusted sack rate, Bortles has a of time in the pocket. You already saw that in week 1 against a healthy Texans defense, Bortles was able to drink a beer in the pocket. During the season, Brandon Linder, Jeremy Parnell and Patrick Omameh all got injured and were missing time at some point. Now they are back in full strength and provide Bortles with a lot of clean pockets throwing to speedy WR's like Westbrook, Cole and Mickens running crossing patterns on great route combinations across the field. On these patterns, Bortles rarely has to throw with anticipation, he just needs his WR's to clear zones or run a yard away from their defenders to hit them in stride. He also has been throwing a few dots over the last few games. With the offense moving towards an average unit and Bortles looking good in a great system, this team is getting very scary, because they will get Fournette and Allen Robinson back at some point. The 49ers are no matchup for the Jaguars. We can argue the cross-country trip, but the Jaguars were resting starters in the fourth quarter last week and still play for a first round bye since the Steelers lost Antonio Brown and Ben is a bit limping. Jags hold the tiebreaker over PIT. As much as Shanahan will try to scheme guys open and put Garoppolo into a lot of quick release passes, it won’t be enough to move the ball on an historically great defense. That offensive line is going to get eaten alive and the Jaguars don’t need to respect the run or the pass either way. Sacksonville will be ready to roll throughout that game. On offense, the Jaguars will do enough again against the No. 29 ranked defense in weighed DVOA. This is men vs boys, Jaguars take this one home by 10+. |
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12-24-17 | Falcons v. Saints -5.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 112 h 31 m | Show |
I am regretting taking the Falcons on MNF. I really thought they are good enough to beat a Buccaneers team that is without several defensive key players comfortably, but they once again showed that they don’t have it this year. They were even out gained on a per-play base, by the Bucs! The Saints committed an unusual 3 turnovers against the Jets last Sunday (two in the red zone) and got a touchdown called back, but they out gained them pretty comfortably. Two weeks ago we took the Saints at Atlanta and we got victimized by a variance game. The Saints lost Alvin Kamara early on which completely altered their game and the Falcons survived with the help of the refs after throwing 3 INT's. The Saints out gained them by 0.6 yards per play. I have no doubt that they would have won the game without the injuries. They wanted to win the game at the end and threw a game-deciding pick instead of going to overtime. This time the Saints will nearly be in full strength, with a full week to prepare, in their personal early Super Bowl. There is such a big discrepancy in efficiency for the Falcons, I don’t see how they overcome that another time to keep this one close. They aren’t a playoff team in terms of efficiency. Atlanta is still bad against passes to RB and that’s where the Saints are going to hammer them all game long as they were supposed to do two weeks ago. On the very first drive, Kamara caught two passes for 29 yards before getting shredded to a concussion. Expect the full Kamara dose this week in a game that shouldn’t bounce the Falcons’ way as it did two weeks ago. New Orleans Saints -5.5 |
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12-24-17 | Rams -6.5 v. Titans | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 29 m | Show |
This one looks like a no-brainer, but I believe it is just one. There are light years between these two teams: offense, defense, special teams, coaching. Sean McVay is an awesome coach and already miles ahead of Mike Mularkey. The Rams already played two early east coast games this year and came out as winners. McVay will have his team ready to compete, so I am not expecting a letdown spot by any means. The only key for the Titans is playing Mularkey ball with Derrick Henry vs a questionable run D, but just as long as the Rams don’t pull away on the scoreboard. Mularkey still loves using Murray as his primary back even though Henry runs much more efficient. Against a bad Titans pass defense, I truly expect the Rams to pull away on the scoreboard via the pass and avoid a lot of runs against a good run D (McVay is smart) and then it doesn’t help the Titans to face a top-5 pass D with Wade Philips coaching vs. Mike Mularkey & Torry Robiskie. It also doesn’t help that Mariota is seriously injured and is considering ankle surgery in the off-season. The Titans have played a bottom-3 schedule on both sides of the ball in terms of efficiency and they played the easiest W/L-schedule. They have been trending downwards since week 3 and are only still in the playoffs because they barely beat teams like Browns, Colts and Texans without Watson. They played against two top-10 offenses, Steelers and Texans with Watson, and they conceded 40 and 50 defensive points. I expect Mularkey to lose the coaching battle easily and the Rams to put up 30+ points here to make another statement into the direction of the 3rd seed. Los Angeles Rams -6.5 |
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12-24-17 | Lions -5 v. Bengals | 17-26 | Loss | -104 | 111 h 26 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Detroit Lions -5 |
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12-24-17 | Bills v. Patriots -11.5 | 16-37 | Win | 100 | 111 h 25 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* New England Patriots -11.5 |
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12-24-17 | Browns +6.5 v. Bears | 3-20 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 35 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Cleveland Browns +6.5 |
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12-24-17 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -10 | 13-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Kansas City Chiefs |
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