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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-07-19 | Old Dominion v. Virginia Tech -28 | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 32 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on Virginia Tech. VT lost at Boston College to open the 2019 campaign, but I believe it’ll bounce back in fine fashion here. ODU comes in off a win in Week 1, but it was far from impressive, holding on for a 24-21 victory over FCS Norfolk State. ODU lost QB Blake LaRussa in the off-season, as well as most of the offensive core and I believe the visitors are going to have a hard time generating much offense here (Stone Smartt was 17 of 23 for 158 yards passing in ODU’s win last week.) Key Trends: - ODU only has four starters back from a defense which last year had difficulties stopping both the pass and run. The verdict: The Hokies gave the ball away a ghastly five times last Saturday and they lost the turnover battle by a five to one margin. Look for VT to clean up its sloppy play and to dominate on both sides of the ball from start to finish; lay the points with confidence! |
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09-07-19 | Rutgers v. Iowa OVER 49.5 | Top | 0-30 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the over Rutgers/Iowa. Rutgers got 340 passing yards and two TD’s from McLane Carter in its blowout win over UMass last weekend. He did however also throw three picks. Iowa only allowed 14 points in its victory last week, but it got 252 yards and three TD’s from QB Nate Stanley and the team would also go on to post 213 rushing yards. Key Trends: - The Scarlet Knights were horrible on third-down defense vs. the lowly Minutemen last week, allowing seven third-down conversions out of 16 attempts. - Iowa had the nation’s best third-down offense last week, converting nine of 14 attempts. The verdict: Rutgers has seen the total go over in six of its last seven when the total in the contest is set between 42. and 49 points. This one has “shootout” written all over it in my opinion; play the over! |
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09-07-19 | Ohio v. Pittsburgh -5.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 115 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh stumbled vs. Virginia last weekend, but I think the Panthers make adjustments and bounce back big vs. Ohio. The Bobcats are a legitimate MAC contender, but with a game at Penn State next weekend, clearly Pittsburgh can ill afford to look past its potentially dangerous opponent today. However, I’m not reading too much into any “trap” this weekend. I would have though if Pittsburgh had won last week, but because of the setback, that factor gets thrown out the window completely. Key Trends: - Ohio is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven after a win by 21 points or more. - Pittsburgh is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a loss by ten points or more to a conference rival. The verdict: The Panthers’ offense stalled against Virginia’s aggressive unit, but i think that Pittsburgh gets back on track with a full four quarter effort and before it’s big matchup on the road next weekend; lay the points! |
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09-06-19 | Marshall v. Boise State UNDER 55 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 101 h 43 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Marshall/Boise State. Marshall cruised to victory with a blowout win over FCS opponent VMI. No big surprise there. Boise State though roared out to an early lead vs. FSU and then it continued to hold on for the eventual upset victory. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? For both teams! I think Marshall struggles in this difficult road venue and I believe the Broncos take a step back after last weekend’s emotional victory. This is a big game for both teams though, with a run at the Group of 5’s top spot in the New Year’s Six. Marshall is going to see a much stiffer test this time around, as Boise State registered four sacks last week vs. the Seminoles. Key Trends: - Marshall has seen the total go under the number in ten of its last 14 when playing with six or less days rest. - Boise State has seen the total dip under in four of its last five as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 14 points range. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, play the under! |
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09-06-19 | Angels v. White Sox -125 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -125 | 30 h 37 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* BIG TIGER on the Chicago White Sox. The Angels are in a free fall after getting swept by the A’s and I think they simply go through the motions tonight as well. The visitors see Dillon Peters (3-2, 4.13 ERA) toe the slab and he went a poor 1-2 with a 4.67 ERA in six appearances in August, including five starts (most recently he got rocked for four runs off seven hits over fix innings in a loss to the Red Sox.) The home side counters with ace Lucas Giolito (14-8, 3.30), who has dominated this series throughout his career, going 2-0 with a 3.75 ERA vs. the Angels lifetime. Key Trends: - The Angels are a poor 6-13 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range this year. - The White Sox are 9-2 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range this season. The verdict: Look for the home side to take full advantage of this favorable matchup; lay the short price! |
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09-06-19 | Wake Forest v. Rice +18.5 | Top | 41-21 | Loss | -108 | 100 h 44 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on Rice. Rice didn’t look very good offensively in last week’s 14-7 loss to the Army Golden Knights, but the Owls looked exceptionally good on the defensive end. Wake Forest managed a 38-35 win over Utah State in Week 1, but it pretty much looked horrible on both sides of the ball, especially defensively where it allowed over 410 yards passing. Rice won’t be lacking for confidence today and I believe the visitors are definitely over-rated considering their form last weekend. Key Trends: - Wake Forest is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a favorite. - The Demon Deacons are only 4-6 ATS in their last ten non-conference games. - Rice is 5-2 ATS in its last seven off a cover where the team lost as an underdog. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, grab as many points as you can! |
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09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears -3 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Chicago Bears. Green Bay clearly has the best QB in the league in Aaron Rodgers, but the Bears’ Mitchell Trubisky isn’t that far behind. Rodgers has a new coach in Matt LaFleur and many new faces on the offensive side of the ball as well. The Packers can’t possibly be any worse on the defensive side of the ball after conceding 28 PPG last year, but the unit will have some chemistry issues as well in my opinion to open things up. And that leaves the door open for Chicago on Opening night. The Bears’ defense was tops in the NFL last year, allowing only 17.7 PPG and the entire unit is back and ready to prove that it wasn’t a fluke. The verdict: I love Rodgers and I think he’s going to put up big numbers this year. But Also think that Matt Nagy and the Bears have this game circled on their calendar since the end of last season; lay the points! |
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09-05-19 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-11 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the under Mariners/Astros. For a number of different reasons, I believe this number is a little high. The visitors hand the ball to Marco Gonzales (14-11, 4.30 ERA), while the home side counters with Wade Miley (13-4, 3.06). Gonzales comes in off a shaky start vs. the Rangers on Friday, but he still sports a sharp 128/44 K/W this season (he’s also 10-6 with a 3.99 ERA in all “night” contests this season.) Miley has posted the 3.06 ERA and 1.22 WHIP to go along with 134 K’s over 152 frames this year (he’s 10-6 with a 3.89 ERA in all “night” contests YTD.) Key Trends: - Seattle has seen the total go under the number in 15 of its last 22 vs. clubs with winning records. - Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number in 12 of its last 20 vs. teams with losing records. The verdict: I look for these two hungry veterans to battle deep; play the under! |
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09-05-19 | Tigers v. Royals +102 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* BEATDOWN on the KC Royals. Matt Boyd (7-10, 4.58 ERA) of the Tigers will square off against Glenn Sparkman (3-10, 5.86) of the Royals and I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked in this one as a very real deciding factor. Boyd can’t be feeling too comfortable here as he’s a terrible 4-9 with a 6.61 ERA in 18 career starts vs. Kansas City (that includes going 1-2 with a 6.53 ERA in four starts vs. KC in 2019.) Sparkman’s been a disaster as well, making the matchup on the mound a “wash” for all intents and purposes, however it’s still interesting to note that he posted a 2.84 ERA in two relief appearances vs. Detroit last season. Key Trends: - Detroit is 1-4 this year on the road as an underdog in the +100 to +150 range. - KC is 13-7 in its last 20 vs. clubs with losing records. The verdict: After last night’s 5-4 win, I think the home side carries that momentum over here; lay the short price! |
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09-04-19 | Rockies +305 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* BEWARE OF DOG on the Colorado Rockies. The Dodgers came from behind to win 5-3 last night, but I think that the home side is overpriced here. Antonio Senzatela (8-9, 6.95 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors, while the home side counters with Hyun-Jin Ryu (12-5, 2.35). Clearly on paper this is a big mismatch, but the fact of the matter is, Ryu has been terrible of late, allowing 18 earned runs over his last 14 2/3’s innings of work. The verdict: Also note that Ryu is a horrible 4-7 with a 4.86 ERA lifetime vs. Colorado (which includes going 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts this season.) Senzatela has been poor this year as well, but I still believe that Ryu is completely over-priced here considering his recent form; play on the hungry dog! |
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09-04-19 | Phillies v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL SUPER-BLOWOUT on the over Phillies/Reds. I’m expecting some offensive fireworks between these two explosive clubs on Wednesday night. The visitors see Aaron Nola (12-4, 3.45 ERA) toe the slab for the home side, while the the home side goes with Trevor Bauer (10-12, 4.53). The Reds are out to play spoiler here vs. the Phillies, who are still in the wild card hunt after three straight victories. Bauer is the issue here though for Cincinnati, who was 9-8 with a 3.79 ERA before being traded to Cincinnati, but who has since gone 1-4 with an 8.40 ERA. Key Trends: - Philadelphia has seen the total go over in seven of its last ten after three or more straight victories. - Cincinnati has seen the total soar over the number in 13 of its last 21 home games after back-to-back losses. The verdict: I think Bauer’s struggle continue here, but I also don’t expect the home side to go down without a fight. This one has “slug-fest” written all over it; play the over! |
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09-03-19 | Astros -165 v. Brewers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -165 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS on the Houston Astros. Jordan Lyles (9-8, 4.55 ERA) has been fantastic in his time for the Brewers, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. The visitors see Zack Greinke (14-4, 2.99) toe the slab tonight. Greinke is a sharp 16-4 with a 3.32 ERA in 29 career starts at Miller Park and he’s 4-0 for his new team. Key Trends: - Houston is 39-16 (+8 units) this season after allowing two runs or less in its previous contest. - Milwaukee is only 7-12 in interleague games this year. The verdict: Houston has easily taken the first two games of this series and I believe that the momentum that it’s created in this interleague series is real; lay the price and expect another beatdown! |
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09-03-19 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 10-11 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the under Mets/Nats. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The starting pitchers. This is a classic “ace off.” The Mets hand the ball to Jacob deGrom (8-8, 2.66 ERA), while the home side goes with Max Scherzer (9-5, 2.46). deGrom gave up four run over seven innings in a 4-1 loss to the Cubs last time out, but he’s got to be feeling confident here as he’s a sharp 5-3 with a tiny 2.30 ERA on the road. Scherzer gave up two run and struck out eight over five innings in a no-decision to the Orioles on Wednesday. Key Trends: - New York has seen the total dip under in 25 of its last 40 when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. - Washington has seen the total go under the number in 11 of its last 17 vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: Expect deGrom and Scherzer to fight deep into this one; play the under! |
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09-02-19 | Notre Dame v. Louisville UNDER 55 | Top | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 35 h 0 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* BLOOD-BATH on the under Notre Dame/Louisville. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Ian Book put up big numbers after taking the reins in Week 4 for the Irish last year and he’s expected to take another big step forward this season. Book’s team this year though looks different from last year’s squad and I think he’ll have some difficulties with chemistry coming out of the gate. The Notre Dame defense also lost many key players, but its top pass rushing duo in Khalid Kareem and Julian Okwara are poised to give Jawon Pass fits for the Cardinals tonight. Pass will obviously be improved from a decent season a year ago, but he’ll be leaning heavily on his other players for support tonight in this difficult matchup. Key Trends: - Notre Dame has seen the total go under in three of its last four as a road favorite in the 17.5 to 21 points range. - Louisville has seen the total go under in six of its last seven non-conference contests. The verdict: Turnover for both teams on both sides of the ball leads to this total staying well below the posted number in Week 1; play the under! |
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09-02-19 | Twins -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -128 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Twins run line. The Twins won big on Sunday and I believe they’re going to lay the hammer down here as well in this extremely favorable matchup on the mound. The visitors go with ace Jake Odorizzi (14-6, 3.55 ERA), while the home side goes with Jordan Zimmermann (1-9, 6.24). Odorizzi enters off a gem, holding the White Sox to two runs over six innings and he’s now won three of his past four decisions. Zimmermann has been better of late, but he’s still only 4-5 with a ballooned 6.89 ERA in ten career match ups vs. the Twins. Key Trends: - Minnesota is 9-3 this year as a road favorite of -175 or higher. - Detroit is just 10-37 as a home dog this year. The verdict: Finally note that Odorizzi is 5-1 with a 3.05 ERA in ten starts vs. the Tigers in his career, which includes going 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA at Comerica Park. Lay the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price! |
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09-02-19 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under Mets/Nationals. The visitors go with Noah Syndergaard (9-7, 4.14 ERA), while the Nationals counter with Joe Ross (3-3, 5.36). The Mets took two of three from the Phiilies over the weekend and they still have a shot at the post-season. Syndergaard has to be feeling confident here though as he’s a respectable 1-1 with a 3.33 ERA in four starts vs. the Nationals this year (note, Syndergaard gave up a career-high ten runs in his last start, after posting eight straight quality efforts. Time to hit the panic button? Of course not. All starters have nightmare outings like that at some point. Syndergaard is true pro and I expect him to have a very short memory here.) Ross has struggled in his limited time this year, but fortunately he’s facing a Mets team which has struggled with offensive consistency all season. Key Trends: - New York has seen the total go under in 24 of its last 40 when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. - Washington has seen the total dip under in 16 of 22 already this season when the total in the contest is either 9 or 9.5. The verdict: I believe the starters go deep and I look for this total to sneak under once it’s all said and done! |
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09-01-19 | Houston v. Oklahoma UNDER 80 | Top | 31-49 | Push | 0 | 35 h 21 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL CASH-BOMB on the under Houston/Oklahoma. Both teams enter the 2019 campaign looking vastly different than they did a year ago. Both have new coaches and each has lost significant talent (Kyler Murray is now the starting QB in Arizona and Ed Oliver has gone to the NFL as well.) The Sooners went out and got defensive guru Alex Grinch to try and bring back some respectability to that side of the ball this season. Houston has D’Eriq King back under center after he suffered a knee injury last year. Oklahoma has a talented QB transfer in Jalen Hurts this season and while he has plenty of weapons around him, I think chemistry will be an issue to start (note as well that Hurts loves running the ball, is big and can take a beating no problem.) Key Trends: - Houston has seen the total go under in six of its last ten on the road. - Oklahoma has seen the total dip under in four of its last six non-conference games. The verdict: I expect these teams to come out a little “flat” to open the game and that “lull” will help in keeping this total under this sky high number; play the under! |
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09-01-19 | Pirates v. Rockies +109 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the Colorado Rockies. Yes Jeff Hoffman (1-4, 7.81 ERA) has struggled in his time as a starter for the Rockies, but I still think he’ll get the better of Steven Brault (3-3, 4.06) this afternoon. Coors Field is the great equalizer in MLB and I don’t think that Brault has an advantage here whatsoever. Note that Brault is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in two starts vs. the Rockies. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is still just 8-12 on the road this year when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. - Colorado is 9-5 in its last 14 after playing six straight home contests. The verdict: After winning seven of nine, I expect the Pirates to come out flat here. Conversely, after dropping the first two of this series, I expect the home side to play with some passion this afternoon; play on the Rockies! |
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09-01-19 | Marlins v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -114 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the under Marlins/Nationals. I expect this one to fall under the total once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Caleb Smith (8-8, 4.05 ERA), while the home side goes with Patrick Corbin (10-6, 3.15). Washington has the best record in the major since mid May and it’s out for the the three game sweep this afternoon. Miami on the other hand has lost 14 straight on the road. Caleb Smith (8-8, 4.05 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and while he’s only 2-5 on the road, he does own a respectable 3.99 ERA in those contests. Patrick Corbin (10-6, 3.15) goes for the home side and he’s dominated the Fish this season, going 2-0 with a 0.78 ERA in three starts. Key Trends: - Miami has seen the total dip under the number in 13 of its last 19 as a road dog of +200 or more. - Washington has seen the total go under in three of four as a home favorite in the -250 to -330 range. The verdict: I expect these two competent starters to battle deep and for this total to fall under the number once it’s all said and done; play the under! |
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08-31-19 | Fresno State +13.5 v. USC | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 730 h 35 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* game of the month on Fresno State. Clay Helton managed to keep his head coaching job for the Trojans last year despite finishing just 5-7. It’s a difficult schedule ahead for USC as well, with Stanford coming to town next, then at BYU, Utah, at Washington and at Notre Dame to follow, I believe the home side does in some small way get caught “looking ahead” to its daunting schedule. USC has plenty of offensive talent and great coaches, but it’s inexperience on its offensive line is a clear weakness. And that’s bad news facing this powerful Fresno State defensive front, which isn’t going to concede many yards on the ground and is therefore going to make the Trojans attack extremely one-dimensional. Key Trends: - Fresno State beat UCLA 38-14 last year. - The Bulldog beat Arizona State 31-20 in the Las Vegas Bowl last season. The verdict: USC also has issues in its secondary. I’m expecting a war until the final whistle; grab the points! |
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08-31-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Coastal Carolina +6 | 30-23 | Loss | -115 | 722 h 25 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on Coastal Carolina. EMU was the better overall team last year, but the Eagles defense is a complete re-haul from last season. EMU also has a new coach in Jamey Chadwell and while while the offense will be “OK,” the difference here is clearly on the defense side for the visitors. The Chanticleers catch a break here facing an EMU team that lacked a run game last year, as Coastal Carolina’s defensive core returns to help a unit which struggled with consistency last year. Key Trends: - EMU is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite. - Coastal Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last seven non-conference games. The verdict: These are two well coached teams, but i think the massive turnover on the defensive side of the ball for the Eagles make Coastal Carolina and the points the correct call here; grab the points! |
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08-31-19 | Ole Miss v. Memphis -5.5 | 10-15 | Loss | -110 | 719 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on Memphis. The Ole Miss Rebels have won just 16 games over the last three years. Memphis on the other hand has posted five straight winning seasons and the last two years it’s gone to the AAC title game, falling to UCF each time. Ole Miss has been ineligible for a bowl the last two years and while it is this season, I still think the Rebels will have their hands full here. And that’s because Ole Miss returns only three starters to its offense and it also has an entirely new offensive coordinator. Memphis was poor defensively last year, so new Ole Miss QB Matt Corral will have his opportunities, but I still don’t think it’ll be enough to keep up to this high-octane Tigers’ offense. Key Trends: - Memphis is 9-0 in pre-noon starts, averaging 52 points in those match ups. - The Tigers have outscored their opponents 150-93 in the first quarter of games a year ago. The verdict: Brady White had 3,296 passing yards and 26 TD’s for the Tigers last year and I look for him to have a massive game to open the season vs. the Power 5 team; lay the points! |
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08-30-19 | Oklahoma State -15 v. Oregon State | 52-36 | Win | 100 | 706 h 31 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on Oklahoma State. Oregon State hasn’t made a bowl game in over five years. Oklahoma State has been a consistent Bowl program in the Big 12 for a decade now and I look for the new look Cowboys to lay the hammer down in this favorable matchup. That said Oklahoma State has big expectations here after finishing just 7-6 last year. The Beavers are once again projected to finish last in the Pac 12 North. Oklahoma State turns to Hawaii transfer Dru Brown under center. Brown led a resurgent Warriors attack last year. And that’s bad news for an Oregon State defense which allowed a staggering 281.8 YPG through the air last season. Key Trends: - The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games. - The Beavers are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine as a home underdog. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, I’m laying the points and expecting a rout! |
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08-30-19 | Mets v. Phillies -131 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -131 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* CLASH-OF-THE-TITANS on the Philadelphia Phillies. I think Aaron Nola (12-4, 3.53 ERA) and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this matchup. The visitors see the erratic Zack Wheeler (9-7, 4.52) toe the slab this evening. New York suffered its sixth straight defeat last night and I believe it continues to slide. The Phillies on the other hand had the day off after destroying the Pirates 12-3 on Wednesday. And that’s bad news for the slipping Wheeler, who most recently allowed five runs over six innings in a loss to the Braves. Nola took a loss on Sunday, despite conceding only three runs over seven innings (3-2 loss to the Fish. Key Trends: - The Mets are just 14-27 (-8 units) this year as a road underdog. - The Phillies are 24-16 at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: With a chance to put the Mets’ out of their misery for good, I believe the Phillies lay the hammer down this weekend; lay the price! |
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08-30-19 | A's v. Yankees UNDER 11 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the under A’s/Yanks. Brett Anderson (10-9, 4.08 ERA) has struggled somewhat of late, but I think he’ll be able to match his counterpart CC Sabathia (5-8, 4.99) inning for inning. These two veterans have seen better days, but I expect them to fight deep into the latter frames tonight. Sabathia has thrown twice since returning from injury and he’s worked into the seventh inning in each contest. The veteran is now gearing up for one last playoff push and I expect him to carry over his recent form. Anderson got out to an unreal start and he’s since predictably come back down to Earth, but note that he’s still a sharp 6-3 with a 3.42 ERA on the road this season. Key Trends: - Oakland has seen the total go under the number in 16 of 19 of its “Friday Night” games this year. - New York has seen the total go under in five of its last six at home when the total in the contest is set between 11 and 11.5. The verdict: Clearly these teams have plenty of pop in the lineup, but the overall situation lends itself to more of a lower-scoring affair in my opinion; play the under! |
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08-30-19 | Wisconsin -10 v. South Florida | 49-0 | Win | 100 | 702 h 1 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* BIG TIGER on Wisconsin. Wisconsin won’t be overlooking the dangerous Bulls here. Note that Paul Chryst is 3-1 in his season openers for the Badgers, while USF’s Charlie Strong is 2-0 since being hired as head coach. But Wisconsin returns a big offensive line and I believe it’ll be too much for USF to handle right out of the gates. The Badgers also feature one of the league’s top RB’s in Jonathan Taylor (note that USC allowed 247.54 YPG on the ground last year and it conceded 36 rushing TD’s.) Bulls’ QB Blake Barnett had 12 TD’s and 11 INT’s last year and he’ll be tested by a revamped Badgers defense. Key Trends: - Wisconsin is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three as a road favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points range. - South Florida is only 4-9 ATS in its last 13 at home (and just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a home dog.) The verdict: I think the Badgers control this game in the trenches and I look for them to easily pull away for the comfortable cover as the contest comes down the stretch; lay the points! |
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08-30-19 | Rice v. Army OVER 47.5 | Top | 7-14 | Loss | -125 | 33 h 30 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* total of the month on the over Rice/Army. Every team has “big” expectations coming into a new season and these two are no different. The Army Golden Knights though come in off a historic 2018 campaign, one which was capped by a 70-14 win over Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl (11-2 overall for the Cadets last year.) The Owls will be eager to prove themselves against the up-tempo Knights. Rice finished its season with a 27-13 upset victory over Old Dominion though (just 2-11 overall though.) Rice turns to Wiley Green, who was the QB in the ODU victory and who had 621 passing yards and three TD’s, to go along with 34 rushing yards and two more scores in four appearances last year. The Army offense welcomes back seven starters, including senior QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr. Key Trends: - Rice has seen the total go over in eight of its last nine non-conference games. - Army has seen the total go over in ten of its last 15 as a favorite. The verdict: Rice has to open up the playbook here if it has any shot at pulling off the upset; look for this one to fly over early! |
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08-29-19 | Kent State +26 v. Arizona State | Top | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 733 h 12 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on Kent State. Kent State is a train-wreck the last few season and it should once again struggle this year. ASU has to be liking its chances at home after watching Arizona fall on the road in Hawaii in its opener. But the Golden Flashes won’t be going down without a fight. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do think that ASU gets caught looking past its lowly opponent here. The verdict: Kent State returns its entire offensive line, which will benefit QB Woody Barrett. I’m not convinced of this ASU defense, especially all of the new faces up front. Besides, ASU features a new QB in true freshman Jayden Daniels. The Golden Flashes have a golden opportunity here and I’m grabbing the points! |
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08-29-19 | Texas State +34.5 v. Texas A&M | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 732 h 42 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on Texas State. Outright upset? Here’s another big dog I’m backing on Thursday night (my three game report contains all large underdogs.) The Aggies come in off a 9-4 campaign in 2018, including 5-3 in SEC action. A&M went on to destroy NC State 52-13 in the Gator Bowl as well. Texas State was just 3-9 overall last season, including just 1-7 in the Sun Belt. But Texas State has a strong defense and a couple of new additions on the offensive end and I believe it’ll comfortably sneak in through the back door. The verdict: Texas State has a new head coach in the offensive minded Jake Spavital and QB in Gresch Jensen, who transferred over from Montana. But Texas A&M will be susceptible defensively without starting CB Debione Renfro in the line-up, who is out from suspension. Texas State also has experienced receivers, who have an advantage over the young A&M secondary. Also note that A&M gets caught “looking ahead” here to its game at Clemson next week. I’m grabbing the points! |
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08-29-19 | Georgia Tech +34.5 v. Clemson | 14-52 | Loss | -109 | 731 h 12 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on Georgia Tech Outright upset? Of course not. The defending National Champs aren’t going to lose on Opening night, but I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Geoff Collins is the new head coach for Georgia Tech, who has made his name because of his defensive prowess. These teams meet up every year despite being in different divisions of the ACC (GT plays with the quadruple revenge factor today. The verdict: GT has three different options at QB as it heads into the new season. Whoever is under center though will benefit from the Tigers defensive line, with all four linemen being new faces, including two at linebacker as well. The Clemson offense for the most part remains the same with Trevor Lawrence directing the show. Admittedly it’s never a good week to face the Clemson Tigers, but I think Week 1 is the best you could possibly have asked for. With GT featuring a new coaching staff that will be doing everything it can to stay competitive, I’m going to definitely recommend grabbing as many points as you can! |
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08-29-19 | Steelers v. Panthers +4 | Top | 19-25 | Win | 100 | 29 h 42 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* BEWARE OF DOG TOP DOG play on the Carolina Panthers. Neither team will start any of their starters here. But after going 3-0 to open the pre-season, I believe that the Steelers are definitely going to “go through the motions” today. At 1-2 though, the Panthers still have issues to work out at key positions. The verdict: These teams have played against each other every pre-season since 2003 and Pittsburgh has won the last two. The home side also plays with the added revenge factor tonight. These two key reasons, combined with the home field advantage do indeed make Carolina the correct call in this matchup in my opinion! |
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08-28-19 | A's -153 v. Royals | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -153 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* CASH-BOMB on the Oakland A’s. I think that Tanner Roark (8-8, 3.95 ERA) and the surging A’s are well worth the price of admission in this matchup, facing the punchless Royals and the erratic Jake Junis (8-12, 4.89). Oakland enters off a 2-1 win in yesterday’s series opener. Note that Roark is 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA as a member of Oakland and I believe the big right-hander continues that momentum here in this favorable matchup (he’s 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two appearances vs. the Royals lifetime.) Junis most recently allowed four runs off six hits over three innings in a second straight loss, this time to Cleveland on Friday. Key Trends: - Oakland is 22-16 (+4.6 units) this year after allowing two runs or less in its previous contest. - KC is a poor 28-54 (-16.2 units) in all “night” contests this season. The verdict: Oakland has a favorable schedule to close out the season and I believe it makes the most of it. Especially tonight! |
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08-28-19 | Pirates v. Phillies OVER 10 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS on the Pirates/Phillies over. Neither of these starters instills much confidence. I believe runs are going to be plentiful as the Pirates try to play spoiler and the Phillies push for a playoff spot. The visitors see Mark Keller (1-2, 7.24 ERA) toe the slab, while the home side goes with the volatile Vince Velasquez (5-7, 4.93). Last Friday Velasquez saw a 7-0 lead in Miami go away in his team’s eventual 19-11 loss. Unfortunately a date vs. the Pirates isn’t what the doctor ordered for Velasquez to get back on track, as he’s 0-1 with a 7.15 ERA over 11 1/3’s innings opposed. Keller has been hit or miss this year and I think he’ll predictably struggle in this difficult road venue. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh has seen the total go over in seven of nine already this year when on the road and the total in the contest is set at either 10 or 10.5. - Philly has seen the total go over in 27 of its last 47 as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: Look for these two erratic starters to get the hook early and for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later! |
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08-27-19 | Twins -127 v. White Sox | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Minnesota Twins. I think Minnesota finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night in this one. The Twins see Michael Pineda (9-5, 4.26 ERA) toe the slab, while the home side counters with Lucas Giolito (14-6, 3.20). Giolito looked dominant in his win last week vs. the Twins, striking out 12 and walking none in a three-hit shutout. Do I expect lightning to “strike twice?” I don’t. Giolito has been fantastic, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Note as well that Pineda is 3-0 with a 3.05 ERA in three starts vs. the White Sox this season. Key Trends: - Minnesota is 15-6 this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range. - Chicago is 9-20 (-10.5 units) this season after having won four or five of its last six games. The verdict: Minnesota clearly won’t be taking anything for granted here after the White Sox took two of three from it at home last week; lay the short price! |
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08-27-19 | Cubs v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the under Cubs/Mets. Chicago sees Yu Darvish (4-6, 4.34 ERA) toe the slab tonight, while the home side counters with Marcus Stroman (7-11, 3.18). I think runs are going to be hard to come by as I expect these two starters to battle deep into the latter frames. Stroman most recently allowed one run over four innings vs. the Indians, while Darvish enters off an outing to forget, allowing seven runs over six innings in a 12-11 win over the Giants (Darvish has been solid overall this year though and note that he’s 1-0 with a 3.51 ERA in four starts vs. the Mets.) Key Trends: - The Cubs have seen the total go under in 12 of 17 already this year when playing with a day off. - New York has seen the total dip under in 14 of 23 this year following a loss by two runs or less. The verdict: I think Darvish gets back on track after his anomalous poor outing last time out. Stroman continues to throw decently for his new team as well and I expect that trend to carry over in this important matchup; play the under! |
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08-26-19 | Pirates v. Phillies -123 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Philadelphia Phillies. I think Jason Vargas (6-6, 3.99 ERA) and the Phillies are a “steal” at this price. And that’s because his counterpart Joe Musgrove (8-12, 4.74 ERA) has been anything but consistent this year. A big boost to the Phillies’ line-up sees the return of slugger Bryce Harper tonight, as he was out over the weekend for the birth of his son (Harper is batting .290 with nine homers and 20 RBI’s over his last 17 games.) Key Trends: - Despite being 0-1 in four starts for his new team, Vargas has still posted a 3.91 ERA. The verdict: After losing two of three to Miami over the weekend, this has essentially now turned into Philadelphia’s most important game of the entire year. No upset/spoiler here, as I look for Vargas to deliver the goods! |
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08-26-19 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 12-2 | Loss | -101 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under Cards/Brewers. This is an important game and when the smoke does finally clear at the end, I believe these competent starting pitchers will be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. The visitors hand the ball to Adam Wainwright (9-9, 4.51 ERA), while the home side goes with Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 3.64). Gonzalez faced these very card on Tuesday and allowed one run over five innings (he’s 3-4 with a respectable 3.11 ERA in 11 career starts vs. St. Louis.) Wainwright lost to the Brewers last week, but overall he’s 16-10 with a 2.48 ERA vs. them, including 7-4 with a 2.60 ERA in 19 career appearances in Milwaukee. Key Trends: - St. Louis has seen the total go under the number in 34 of of 52 games this year when the total is 9 or 9.5. - Milwaukee has seen the total go under the number in 15 of its last 21 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: I expect these veteran hurlers to throw deep into the latter frames; this number is a little high, play the under! |
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08-25-19 | Steelers v. Titans UNDER 40.5 | Top | 18-6 | Win | 100 | 35 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL SUPER BLOWOUT on the under Steelers/Titans. The Titans beat the Eagles in Week 1, but they came up short at home vs. the Patriots in Week 2. Overall Tennessee is 2-8 SU/ATS in its last ten in the preseason. The Titans have a bit of a QB controversy going on right now with Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill. Pittsburgh is 2-0 in the preseason and 8-2 SU/ATS in its last ten. Ben Roethlisberger sees his first action of the season for Pittsburgh and last year in Week 3 vs. these very Titans he was 11 of 18 passing in the 16-6 win. The verdict: These teams employ a similar game plan, with short crossing routes combined with a bruising running game; expect that to translate into another low-scoring battle between these clubs in their 2019 Week 3 preseason contest; play the under! |
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08-25-19 | Yankees v. Dodgers -175 | 5-1 | Loss | -175 | 26 h 50 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* CLASH-OF-THE-TITANS on the LA Dodgers. Domingo German (16-3, 4.15 ERA) has been exceptional this season overall for New York, but he does enter this one off the worst start of his career, allowing six runs off eight hits over five innings. Clayton Kershaw (13-2, 2.71) has been fantastic for LA this season and I think he’ll easily get the better of his now sputtering counterpart. Kershaw doesn’t have a decision vs. New York in his career, despite posting a tiny 0.90 ERA over 20 innings opposed. The verdict: As good as German has been this year, I believe he’ll struggle in this difficult road venue and in the National League format; lay the price with confidence! |
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08-25-19 | Braves v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Braves/Mets. A couple of veteran starters go head-to-head in this important National League contest on Sunday afternoon. I believe that they’ll battle deep into the latter frames and I look for that to indeed help in keep this total under the number once it’s all said and done. Dallas Keuchel (4-5, 4.14 ERA) goes up against Steven Matz (8-7, 4.18) of the Mets. Keuchel earned a win last time out, giving up one run over six innings vs. the Fish, while Matz allowed two runs over seven innings vs. the Indians. The verdict: Atlanta’s taken the first two games of this series, including last night’s 9-5 victory. With these two surging starters squaring off, all signs do indeed point to the under as the savvy call here! |
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08-24-19 | 49ers v. Chiefs -3.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 47 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the KC Chiefs. San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo was just one of six for zero yards and an INT in last week’s win over the Broncos. Last year Garoppolo tore his ACL at Arrow Head Stadium and I think he and the 49ers will struggle once again in this difficult road venue. Key Trends: - KC is 9-6-1 ATS in its last 14 preseason games. The verdict: The Chiefs are expected to play their starters for the entire first half and I believe that will more than enough to build an insurmountable home lead; lay the points! |
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08-24-19 | Florida v. Miami-FL OVER 50.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -108 | 730 h 27 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the over Florida/Miami Florida. Key Trends: - It’s interesting to note that UF finished with a 1-3 record last year when it scored less than 20 points, but it was 9-0 when scoring over 20. - Also note that the Hurricanes were 0-5 last year when scoring less than 20 points, while going 7-1 when eclipsing the 20 points plateau. The verdict: Florida was 10-3 last year under Dan Mullen’s first year as head coach and I believe it has a chance to duplicate that record. The home side won’t be going down without a fight though under Miami first year head coach Manny Diaz. When you add it all up, I think this one flies over the number sooner, rather than later! |
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08-24-19 | Nationals v. Cubs -140 | 7-2 | Loss | -140 | 22 h 31 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* BIG TIGER on the Chicago Cubs. I think the surging Jose Quintana (11-7, 3.91 ERA) and the hungry home side are well worth the price of admission in this spot. Joe Ross gets the nod for the visitors, who left his last start early because of a come backer off his right leg. Note that Ross is just 1-1 with a ballooned 6.23 ERA in all “day” games this season. Quintana enters off a gem vs. the Pirates, going seven scoreless and striking out seven. The verdict: Quintana has been especially hot in August, going 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA and a ridiculous 33/1 K/W over 26 frames of work. It’s safe to say that Quintana has re-found his old form and I’m banking on that trend carrying over here; lay the price! |
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08-23-19 | Yankees +135 v. Dodgers | Top | 10-2 | Win | 135 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS on the the New York Yankees. I’m calling for the slight upset on Friday night. James Paxton (9-6, 4.53 ERA) has the difficult task of throwing opposite Dodgers’ ace Hyun-Jin Ryu (12-3, 1.64) this evening. Clearly it wouldn’t be difficult to write a convincing argument for either side to take this one. Admittedly the Dodgers have the advantage on the mound, but New York’s incredibly deep and talented hitting line-up negates that to a big extent in my opinion. The verdict: Note as well that Ryu is coming off his worst start of the year, allowing four runs over five innings in a loss to the Braves. Paxton’s been hit or miss this season, but I believe the southpaw can match Ryu inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the undervalued underdog; play on the Yanks! |
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08-23-19 | Bills v. Lions +2.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 20 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Detroit Lions. Buffalo is 2-0 in the preseason, but I think it takes a step back on the road in Week 3. The Lions won’t be lacking for motivation here obviously as they’re winless so far in the preseason. So far Josh Allen has looked good in the early going vs. vanilla defenses, but he’s going to be in for a big surprise here vs. the Lions’ starters in my opinion. The verdict: Matt Stafford is only expected to see a few snaps in this one for Detroit, leaving a big competition still for the No. 2 spot between David Fales and Josh Johnson, both of whom are going to benefit greatly today playing behind and with the first team offense. I think the Lions take this seriously and punch their first victory of the preseason; that said, grab the points! |
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08-23-19 | Browns v. Bucs UNDER 42.5 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 35 h 51 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Browns/Bucs. The Browns seem to be playing with a chip on their respective shoulders and I expect that momentum to be carried over in Week 3. So far Cleveland has beaten the Colts and Skins. The Bucs won 16-14 over the Dolphins in Week 1, but then fell 30-28 to the Steelers in Week 2. In last week’s win Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield was 5 of 6 for 77 yards and a TD. RB Nick Chubb is also expect to see a lot of time. But even more impressive that Cleveland’s offense to this point has been its defense, conceding only 14.0 PPG. The verdict: Tampa QB’ Jameis Winston was just 2 of 4 for 24 yards in last week’s loss. The defense though struggled, allowing three passing TD’s to the Steelers. I think Tampa struggles to put any points on the board and I look for Cleveland to dominate throughout all three phases; play the under! |
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08-23-19 | Browns -155 v. Bucs | 12-13 | Loss | -155 | 35 h 50 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* money line play on the Cleveland Browns. The Browns seem to be playing with a chip on their respective shoulders and I expect that momentum to be carried over in Week 3. So far Cleveland has beaten the Colts and Skins. The Bucs won 16-14 over the Dolphins in Week 1, but then fell 30-28 to the Steelers in Week 2. In last week’s win Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield was 5 of 6 for 77 yards and a TD. RB Nick Chubb is also expect to see a lot of time. But even more impressive that Cleveland’s offense to this point has been its defense, conceding only 14.0 PPG. The verdict: Tampa QB’ Jameis Winston was just 2 of 4 for 24 yards in last week’s loss. The defense though struggled, allowing three passing TD’s to the Steelers. I think Tampa struggles to put any points on the board and I look for Cleveland to dominate throughout all three phases; play the Browns on the money line! |
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08-23-19 | Braves v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -114 | 28 h 16 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS on the OVER Braves/Mets. Clearly Jacob deGrom (8-7, 2.61 ERA) has been exceptional this year, but his counterpart Mike Foltynewicz (4-5, 6.09) has had a hell of a time this season. But it’s the gravity of the situation for New York, combined with how hot each club is overall that makes me believe this total is going to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. ATL leads the season series 8-5, but New York is a major league-best 27-10 since the Mid Summer Classic, including going 13-1 in their last 14 at home. Key Trends: - Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in all four games it’s played in this year as an underdog of +150 or higher. - New York has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 20 as a home favorite of -150 or higher this season. The verdict: While both teams come in off low-scoring victories last night (New York 2-0 over Cleveland and the Braves 3-2 in Miami), I think the situation and the trends both point to the “over” as the correct call in this one! |
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08-22-19 | Tigers +412 v. Astros | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers pulled off the 2-1 upset last night and at this price, I think the visitors offer great value to do it again on Thursday. Gerrit Cole is 14-5 with a 2.87 ERA and he’s been superb, but his counterpart Jordan Zimmeran (1-8, 6.66 ERA) won’t be lacking for motivation obviously. Zimmermann comes in off his best start of the year as well, holding the Rays scoreless over six innings with five K’s. The verdict: And while only 2-3 in his career at Minute Maid Park, note that Zimmermann sports a solid 3.34 ERA over those contests. I believe Houston gets caught looking past its highly motivated opponent; play on the Tigers! |
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08-22-19 | Redskins -2.5 v. Falcons | Top | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 32 h 38 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Washington Redskins. Both teams have plenty of issues. The Redskins though are still looking to solidify their No. 1 QB and because of that, I expect the visitors to find a way to get the job done here. Atlanta’s Matt Ryan is only expected to see a few snaps and Julio Jones and many of the other key star offensive players for the home side will also see limited to no time whatsoever. Key Trends: - Atlanta’s Dan Quinn is just 5-14 all time in the preseason as the Falcons coach. - Washington head coach Jay Gruden is 12-10 all time in the preseason. The verdict: Case Keenum will likely get the call as No. 1 in Washington, but we’ll also see a lot of backup Dwayne Haskins. Atlanta will feature Matt Schaub, and I think he’ll have his hands full trying to keep pace. Look for Washington to pull away down the stretch! |
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08-22-19 | Panthers v. Patriots OVER 42 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the over Panthers/Patriots. New England has who seven of the past ten preseason games vs. Carolina, but it fell 25-19 in Charlotte last year. The Panthers won 23-13 in Chicago in Week 1, before then falling 27-14 at home to Buffalo. Carolina is finally going to start QB Cam Newton and RB Christian McCaffrey in this one. Carolina is expected to play most of its starters for at least half the game, as it tries to get a true judge of where it’s at vs. the defending champs and in this difficult road venue. The verdict: New England continues to roll as it hasn’t lost since Week 15 last year. So far it’s 2-0 in the preseason. Whether Tom Brady plays or not, I think New England pushes the pace here as well in front of the home town crowd (note that rookie QB Jarrett Stidham was 14 of 19 for 193 yards and a TD vs. the Titans.) The Pats are also expected to start Julian Edelman at receiver for the first time this year. When you add it all up, this one has “shootout” written all over it in my opinion; play the over! |
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08-22-19 | Marlins v. Braves UNDER 9.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the under Marlins/Braves. I think both teams will struggle to score runs tonight. The Marlins go with Sandy Alcantara (4-11, 4.35 ERA), while the home side counters with rookie phenom Mike Soroka (10-2, 2.41). The verdict: Atlanta has won four straight, while Miami has lost 11 straight on the road and five in a row overall. Soroka has been an absolute beast vs. the Fish this year, going 2-0 with a 0.41 ERA. Alcantara has been hit or miss this year, but he’s posted a solid 3.86 ERA over 11 2/3’s inning opposed vs. Atlanta. Look for this total to fall well below the number once it’s all said and done! |
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08-22-19 | Indians v. Mets -140 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the New York Mets. The Mets have the superior starter on the hill in Noah Syndergaard (8-6, 3.86 ERA) in this particular matchup in my opinion. The Visitors go with the still relatively untested Aaron Civale (1-2, 1.50.) The Mets have take the first two games of this series and they’ve won five in a row overall, thanks in large part to a bullpen which has posted a 3.88 ERA since the break. Civale most recently allowed three runs over six innings in a loss to the Yanks, while Syndergaard gave up two runs over six innings to the Royals. The verdict: I’m throwing the stats out the window for this one. Syndegaard has been exceptional over the last month and I believe his experience and his team’s overall momentum help in securing New York the series sweep this evening; lay the price! |
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08-21-19 | Marlins v. Braves -175 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Atlanta Braves. Caleb Smith (8-6, 3.63 ERA) is in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one in my opinion and I like for Julio Teheran (7-8, 3.71) and the hungry home side to take advantage. The Braves won the opener 5-1 last night and I think they come in focused here as well. Teheran allowed six runs over two innings to the Mets on Thursday and I think he’ll bounce back here. It was the veterans worst start of his career and he’s 9-6 with a 3.60 ERA in 24 career starts against the Fish. The verdict: Teheran has been downright filthy vs. Miami this year as well, going 2-0 with a 0.36 ERA and 22 K’s with only six walks spanning 25 frames of work. Conversely, Smith is a poor 1-2 with a ballooned 5.73 ERA in four career match ups vs. Atlanta. I’m laying the price and expecting a rout from start to finish! |
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08-20-19 | Indians -155 v. Mets | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -155 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* BIG TIGER on the Cleveland Indians. Stephen Matz (7-7, 4.33 ERA) has been a lot better at home than on the road for New York, but Shane Bieber (12-5, 3.27) has been the model of consistency al season for the hard-hitting Indians. Both teams are still jockeying for a playoff spot, but I think Bieber is the correct call here. Bieber most recently gave up two runs over six innings while also striking out seven in an unfortunate no-decision to Boston on Wednesday. Over his last 38 innings of work Bieber has posted an insane 44/5 K/W. Matz has struggled in evening contests with a 4.89 ERA this year. Key Trends: - Cleveland is 7-2 in its last nine interleague night games as a favorite in the -150 to -175 range. - The Mets are only 2-5 in their last seven interleague home games as an underdog in the +135 to +155 range. The verdict: The quality of starting pitching matters tonight; expect the Tribe to strike the first blow in this series and lay the price with confidence! |
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08-19-19 | 49ers v. Broncos UNDER 42 | Top | 24-15 | Win | 100 | 35 h 59 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the under. Both teams looked shaky in their respective openers. Denver returns home after a 22-14 setback in Seattle. It’s interesting to note that the Broncos are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 preseason games at Mile High. 49ers’ QB Jimmy Garoppolo threw five INT’s in practice this week and suddenly San Francisco has more questions than answers on the offensive side of things (note that there 49ers scored a total of just 30 points in two preseason games a year ago.) Key Trends: - Denver has seen the total go under in three straight preseason games. - San Francisco has seen the total go under in four of its last six preseason contests. The verdict: I don’t think that a shift in venue to the thin air of Denver is going to help either of these scuffling offensive units; play the under! |
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08-19-19 | Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under Brewers/Cardinals. These teams are embroiled in a wild card hunt and while each has plenty of firepower to put runs at the board at any given moment, I believe it’ll be the starting pitchers of tonight’s game who become the main story line’s in tomorrow’s summaries. The visitors see Zach Davies (8-5, 3.74 ERA) toe the slab, while Dakota Hudson (11-6, 3.82) gets the nod for the home side. Davies faltered in the second half, but he now returns refreshed after a stint on the DL (note that Davies has been at his best on the road this season as well, going 4-2 with a very respectable 2.97 ERA.) Hudson comes in off a gem, holding the Royals scoreless over six innings, allowing only five hits, two walks, while also striking out five (note that Hudson has been at his best at home this year as well with a 4-2, 3.60 ERA record to this point.) Key Trends: - Milwaukee has seen the total dip under the number in eight of its last 11 National League road games in which the total is set between -135 and +135. - St. Louis has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven National League night home contests in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: I’m expecting these staters to throw deep and for this total to stay well below the number once it’s all said and done; play the under! |
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08-19-19 | Padres v. Reds -157 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -157 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Cincinnati Reds. I have no problem laying this price considering the talent discrepancy between the starting pitchers tonight. The visitors see Eric Lauer (6-8, 4.55 ERA) toe the slab and he most recently gave up three runs off six hits over five innings in a no-decision to the Rays (note that Lauer’s been at his worst on the road this year as well, going 3-5 with a ballooned 6.20 ERA.) Trevor Bauer (10-9, 4.12) gets the nod for the home side and he comes in off an outing to forget vs. the Nationals on Wednesday, allowing nine runs off eight hits over four innings. Starts like that have been few and far between for the veteran though, so there’s clearly no reason to hit the panic button. Key Trends: - San Diego is just 2-6 in its last eight National League night road games in which it’s an underdog in the +125 to +200 range. - Cincinnati is 7-2 in its last nine National League home games as a favorite in the -135 to -185 range. The verdict: I like Bauer to bounce back in friendly confines and I expect Lauer’s road issues to once again rear their ugly head; lay the price! |
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08-18-19 | Seahawks v. Vikings UNDER 42 | Top | 19-25 | Loss | -108 | 151 h 16 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Hawks/Vikes. I think the Vikes take the foot off the gas here after their high-scoring 34-25 road win in New Orleans. Certainly Minnesota is going to face a much better defense in the Seahawks. Last year the Vikes won this game 21-20, but I’m expecting a much lower-scoring “battle” this time around. Seattle has already said that Chris Carson is going to the be the No. 1 RB, so now it’s a battle at that position for the rest of the preseason. The Hawks have their QB, but a strong run game is essential for Russell Wilson obviously. The top spots are filled in Minnesota, so the team is just trying to fill in some weak spots at this point. The verdict: With Seattle committed to focusing on its run game in the preseason and with the expected letdown here from the home side after last week’s road offensive explosion, all signs point to this one sneaking below the posted number once it’s all said and done! |
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08-18-19 | Cubs -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 7-1 | Win | 102 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* RUN-LINE ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Cubs. Jose Quintana (10-7, 4.11 ERA) is performing at his highest level in quite some time and I believe he’s worth laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price. Quintana most recently gave up two runs (only one earned) over six innings, while also going on to strike out 14 in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision to the hard-hitting Phillies on Tuesday. Over his last four starts Quintana has given up four runs and struck out 26 spanning 19 frames of work. Mitch Keller (1-1, 7.94) has been a train-wreck in his limited time so far for the Pirates, although after being recalled last week he would hold the Angels to one run over five innings in earning his first victory. The book is out on Keller clearly and I believe he’s in well over his head in this matchup. Key Trends: - The Cubs are 7-2 in their last nine National League night road games in which they’re a favorite in the -135 to -200 range. - The Pirates are only 8-11 in their last 19 home games as an underdog in the +150 to +225 range. The verdict: Quintana has the experience and momentum to close out the regular season strong. The Cubs won’t be lacking for motivation here either after a scuffling stretch. Keller comes in off a great start, but an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent in my opinion; lay the 1.5 runs! |
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08-18-19 | Saints v. Chargers -3 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 147 h 16 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the LA Chargers. Both teams come in off Week 1 losses. But the Saints looked downright terrible defensively last week in their 34-25 setback at home to the Vikings. With starting QB Drew Brees expected to see little or no time once again, I think New Orleans struggles again here defensively (overall the Vikes had 213 rushing yards and 247 passing.) Taysom Hill and Teddy Bridgewater admittedly both looked decent in their battle for No. 2. The Chargers eventually fell 17-13 in Arizona in Week 1. LA also got good QB play from its potential backups, with Easton Stick passing for 78 yards and rushing for 51, while Cardale Jones was 4 of 6 for 47 yards. Tyrod Taylor though was 6 of 6 for 72 yards, while rushing for 34 more. The verdict: LA looked a lot better on the defensive side last week than New Orleans and I believe that will once again be the difference maker for the Chargers this weekend. I think the Saints get caught looking ahead to their all important Week 3 dress rehearsal; lay the points. |
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08-17-19 | Cowboys v. Rams OVER 42 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -140 | 129 h 19 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the over Cowboys/Rams. This game is being played in Hawaii. I believe both teams keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and I look for this total to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. The Rams lost 14-3 in Oakland last week, electing to sit their entire starting line-up. Dallas will be out to get things turned around on the offensive end as well after its 17-9 setback at San Francisco. The verdict: Both teams aren’t expected to play their starters much, or at all in this one either. But that won’t mean there won’t be an extreme sense of competition and urgency on the field of play today. After each team “laid an egg” offensively last week, I expect each to “open up the playbook” on Saturday; this number is low, play the over! |
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08-17-19 | Mets -203 v. Royals | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* BIG BAD BLOWOUT on the New York Mets. I think Jacob deGrom (7-7, 2.68 ERA) is well worth the price of admission in this matchup. The home side sees the volatile Jacob Junis (8-10, 4.80) toe the slab. Overall deGrom owns a 6-8, 3.14 ERA record in 20 interleague starts. But note that deGrom enters on top form, having posting a 1.97 ERA over his last 15 stars and a 1.20 ERA over his last seven. Junis has been much better of late as well, most recently coming off a win over the Tigers, but I think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The verdict: After last night’s 4-1 loss (New York’s fourth loss in its last five), I look for the playoff hopeful Mets to rally behind their ace; lay the price with confidence! |
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08-17-19 | Patriots v. Titans +3 | Top | 22-17 | Loss | -106 | 126 h 20 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Tennessee Titans. The Patriots demolished the Lions in Detroit in preseason Week 1 action, but they’ll play their final two preseason games at home after this contest. Week 3 is the all important “dress rehearsal” of course, where the starters see the majority of action for the game, so with that in mind I believe that the visitors will indeed just “go through the motions” this evening. The Titans on the other hand will be looking at this game as a measuring stick and they’ll want to keep the foot on the gas after their impressive 27-10 win over the Eagles in Week 1. The verdict: After going 0-4 in the preseason last year, Titans coach Mike Vrabel has already gotten out to a better start this season. This is a “situational” play for me. I think the Pats are already looking ahead to their first preseason game at home next week, while the Titans come in seriously focused on the task at hand. Outright win? Obviously completely possible, but in the end let’s grab the points! |
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08-17-19 | Liverpool -236 v. Southampton | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 73 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on Liverpool. Liverpool is back on home soil after defeating Chelsea in European action midweek. Liverpool is now the Uefa Super Cup champion after Adrian saved the spot-kick in the penalty shoot. Sadio Mane had two goals vs. Chelsea and was taken off early with this game in mind vs. the Blues. The verdict: The Saints come in off a humbling 3-0 loss at Burnley and they’re going to have to play an absolute perfect game to come out on top here. After last weekend’s result, I simply can’t see that happening. Lay the price with confidence and expect a decisive victory once it’s all said and done! |
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08-16-19 | Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 10-9 | Loss | -119 | 30 h 51 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Giants/Diamondbacks. Two playoff hopeful clubs go head-to-head on Friday night and in my opinion, runs will be at a premium. Jeff Samardzija (9-9, 3.55 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors and he most recently gave up one run off two hits over eight innings in a victory over the Phillies on Saturday. Samardzija enters this on fire, posting 1.95 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and a 43/10 K/W over his last 50.2 innings of work. The home side counters with Mike Leake (9-9, 4.58) and he comes in off an outing to forget allowing eight runs on ten hits to the Dodgers on Sunday (note though that Leake owns a respectable 7-2, 3.04 ERA record in all “home” games this season.) Key Trends: - San Francisco has seen the total dip under the number in eight of its last 12 National League road games in which the line is set between -125 and +125. - Arizona has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 20 National League home games as a favorite in the -110 to -140 range. The verdict: I like Leake to bounce back and expect Samardzija to carry over his recent momentum; this one has “duel” written all over it! |
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08-16-19 | Mets v. Royals OVER 9 | 1-4 | Loss | -116 | 28 h 26 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the over Mets/Royals. The Mets will look to take advantage of this favorable interleague matchup and in my opinion, everything points to a “slug-fest” on Friday night. New York sees Noah Syndergaard (8-5, 3.89 ERA) toe the slab for the visitors and he most recently gave up two runs off seven hits over seven innings in a no-decision to the Nationals. Overall “Thor” has been solid this year , but note he’s owns a 4.94 ERA in all “night” games thus far. Mike Minor (11-6, 2.90) has posted 15 shutout innings to open August, after posting a 6.59 ERA in July. Key Trends: - New York has seen the total go over the number in 14 of its last 22 interleague road games as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. - KC has seen the total fly over the number in eight of its last 12 interleague home games as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: These pitchers have been solid this year, but the overall situation and the numbers point to a higher-scoring affair in my opinion; play the over! |
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08-16-19 | Bears v. Giants | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 103 h 54 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the New York Giants. The New York Giants have to be feeling good after rookie Daniel Jones shone in his team’s Week 1 win over the Jets. Note that the Bears are 2-4 in the preseason under 2018 NFL Coach of The Year Matt Nagy, while the Giants are 3-2 under Pat Shurmur. The Bears lost 23-13 last week at home to Carolina and starting QB Mitch Trubisky didn’t see any time in that one and he likely won’t here either (keep your eyes on Chicago rookie RB David Montgomery, who had a rushing score last week and also caught three passes.) The Giants did indeed prevail 31-22 over the Jets and Jones was 5 for 5 for 67 yards and a TD. Key Trends: Nagy’s job is secure and he clearly doesn’t put much stock into the preseason. Shurmur is already on the “hot seat” though and his young rookie QB appears to competing for the No. 1 spot. This one has “blowout” written all over it! |
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08-16-19 | Dolphins v. Bucs UNDER 43.5 | Top | 14-16 | Win | 100 | 103 h 53 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the UNDER Dolphins/Bucs. Tampa Bay hired Bruce Arians in the offseason and he’ll be hoping that Jameis Winston will be on top form this season, as the controversial QB is in the final year of his contract. The Dolphins also have a new coach in Brian Flores, after Adam Gase went 7-9 in 2018. These teams are very familiar with each other because of the proximity and while last year’s 26-24 Tampa victory flew well above the total, I think this year’s contest sets up as much more of a defensive battle. The verdict: Miami comes in off a 34-27 home win last Thursday, but I expect to see a much more vanilla unit hit the field in Week 2. The Bucs lost 30-28 in Pittsburgh last Friday. With both sides putting more of an added emphasis onto the defensive end of the field, look for this total to stay well under once it’s all said and done! |
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08-16-19 | Dodgers v. Braves UNDER 10 | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 32 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Dodgers/Braves. Two teams which will be competition for the NL crown get together on Friday night and because of the talent level on the mound between the starting pitchers, I do indeed believe that runs will be at a premium. The visitors go with Kenta Maeda (8-8, 4.12 ERA) who comes in off a gem vs. the D-Backs on Saturday, going seven scoreless and striking out six. Overall Maeda has been solid this season with a 128/39 K/W over 122.1 frames of work. The home side sees Michael Soroka (10-2, 2.32) toe the slab and he most recently went seven scoreless in an unfortunate no-decision to the Fish on Saturday. Key Trends: - LA has seen the total go under the number in 15 of its last 24 National League night road games when the total in the contest is set between -135 and +135. - Atlanta has seen the total dip under the number in seven of its last 11 night home games in which the line is set between -135 and +135. The verdict: The stage is set for these two starters to fight deep into the latter innings; play the under! |
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08-16-19 | Indians v. Yankees UNDER 10.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Indians/Yankees. Aaron Civale (1-1, 1.00 ERA) has been “lights out” for the Indians and I think that the rookie carries that momentum over into this difficult matchup. Most recently Civale allowed one run off four hits over six innings in a no-decision to the hard-hitting Twins on Sunday (overall Civale has an 18/4 K/W over 18 innings.) The home side sees Masahiro Tanaka (8-6, 4.64) toe the slab and he most recently went eight scoreless and struck out four in a win over the Jays on Sunday. Overall Tanaka has been solid this year, entering this one with a 114/34 K/W over 137.2 innings of work. Key Trends: - Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 13 as a road American League underdog in the +125 to +175 range. - New York has seen the total dip under the number in seven of its last 11 home games vs. an American League opponent as a fav in the -125 to -200 range. The verdict: These are two of the hardest hitting clubs, not only in the Junior Circuit, but in all of MLB, but I believe Friday’s contest definitely sets up as a classic “duel.” This number is a little high, play the under! |
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08-16-19 | Padres v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | 4-8 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Padres/Phillies. I think this National League contest sets up as a “duel.” The visitors hand the ball to Chris Paddack (7-5, 3.26 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits with one walk while striking out five over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Rockies on Saturday. Over 20 starts Paddack now owns a minuscule 0.93 WHIP. Vince Velasquez (4-7, 4.30) comes in off a hard-luck loss, giving up three runs over six innings vs. the Giants. Note that Velasquez enters on top form, posting a 2.78 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and a 21/8 K/W over his last 22.2 innins of work spanning four starts. Key Trends: - San Diego has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 12 National League road games when the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. - The Phillies have seen the total dip under the number in 15 of their last 25 National League home games as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: I’m expecting these hungry and clearly hot starters to battle deep into the latter frames and as a result, I look for this total to stay well below the posted number! |
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08-15-19 | White Sox v. Angels -148 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 32 h 6 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* BIG TIGER on the LA Angels. No need to overthink this one as I look for the home side to take advantage of what I believe to be a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what this line would suggest. The visitors see Reynaldo Lopez (7-9, 5.16 ERA) toe the slab and he enters off a rare decent outing, giving up three runs over five innings in a win over the Phillies. Lopez has been more “miss” than “hit” this year though and note that he’s a terrible 3-4 with a 5.31 ERA on the road this season. Andrew Heaney (1-3, 4.89) looked sharp in his return from the IL last Saturday, giving up one run off three hits with four K’s over four innings in what turned out to be no-decision vs. the hard-hitting Red Sox on Saturday. Key Trends: - Chicago is just 3-7 in its last ten American League night road games as an underdog in the +135 to +165 range. - LA is 7-2 in its last nine home games by Heaney in which he’s a favorite of -150 or higher. The verdict: I believe Lopez takes a giant step back in this difficult road venue; lay the price! |
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08-15-19 | Raiders v. Cardinals -3.5 | Top | 33-26 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 28 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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08-15-19 | Jets v. Falcons OVER 41 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 59 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the over Jets/Falcons. Falcons’ starting QB Matt Ryan will see his first action of the preseason. So far the Falcons are 0-2 in the preseason, after losing in the Hall of Fame Game as well. Amazingly Atlanta is 0-10 in its last ten preseason games. The Falcons clearly won’t be lacking for motivation here. The Jets fell to the Giants last week, but starter Sam Darnold looked great in his only drive of the game, finishing 4 of 5 for 68 yards and a TD. The Jets’ defense took a couple of major hits, with top CB Trumaine Johnson out with a hamstring injury and his back-up Kyron Brown also going down with a leg issue. The verdict: With each team seeking its first victory, I’m expecting a wide-open affair; this number is a little low, play the over! |
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08-14-19 | Cardinals v. Royals UNDER 10 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 28 h 48 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS on the under Cards/Royals. I had a play on the Cardinals last night and they ended up winning 2-0. I think that runs are going to once again be at a premium here as well. The visitors see Dakota Hudson (10-6, 4.01 ERA) toe the slab, while the home side counters with Brad Keller (7-12, 4.09). Hudson has conceded more than three earned runs only once in his past 20 starts. Keller enters having lost three straight, most recently getting shelled for five runs off ten hits over six frames in a loss in Detroit last week. Keller clearly won’t be lacking for motivation today and note that he’s 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA lifetime vs. the Cards. Key Trends: - St. Louis has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 12 as a road favorite of -110 or higher. - Kansas City has seen the total dip under the number in seven of its last ten interleague games. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, play the under! |
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08-14-19 | Reds v. Nationals -140 | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* SUPER BLOWOUT on the Washington Nationals. Trevor Bauer (10-8, 3.74 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors. Bauer had a great debut for his new team, but note that he still owns a sub-pr 4.80 ERA in all “night” games this year. Stephen Strasburg (14-5, 3.72) gave up three runs over seven innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Friday and he comes into the final month of the regular season sporting a whopping 181/38 K/W over 152.1 frames of work. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is just 19-29 as a road dog this year. - Washington is 26-16 as a home favorite of -110 or higher. The verdict: I think Bauer has his hands full vs. the surging Nationals team which has won six of eight; lay the price! |
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08-14-19 | Diamondbacks -120 v. Rockies | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Robbie Ray (10-7, 3.99 ERA) has for the most part been as solid as Arizona could have possibly asked for this year and I think he’ll have more than enough in the tank to get the better of his erratic counterpart Kyle Freeland (3-10, 7.06). Freeland has looked a bit better of late, but he’s still only 3-3 with a ballooned 5.40 ERA in ten career outings vs. the Diamondbacks. Freeland has allowed a whopping 22 home runs this year and the D-Backs already have seven dingers over the first two games of this series. Ray is 5-5 with a 5.21 ERA lifetime vs. Colorado, but he’s coming off a a gem vs. the Dodgers on Friday, allowing two runs over six innings while striking out seven. Key Trends: - Arizona is a sharp 12-6 (+5.2 units) on the road with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. - Colorado is just 5-11 (-4.4 units) this season as a home underdog. The verdict: Look for Ray to easily out duel Freeland and for Arizona’s red hot bats to continue the onslaught; lay the price! |
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08-13-19 | Rays v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the over Rays/Padres. Two suspect hurlers collide in this one and I expect runs to be plentiful. The Rays hand the ball to Brendan McKay (2-2, 4.55 ERA) who gave up three runs over five innings in a loss to the Jays on Wednesday. McKay has impressive strikeout numbers in the early going, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie to this point. The home side sees Eric Lauer (6-8, 4.51) toe the slab for the home side and he most recently allowed three runs off ten hits over four innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Rockies on Thursday (note that Lauer has been particularly ineffective in this spot all year as well, going just 4-6 with a 4.64 ERA in all “night” games. Key Trends: - Tampa has seen the total fly over in seven of its last 11 interleague road games when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5. - San Diego has seen the total fly over the number in 15 of its last 25 interleague home games as a favorite. The verdict: Look for these starters to get the hook early and look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later! |
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08-13-19 | Pirates v. Angels -160 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -160 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the LA Angels. I had a free play on the Angels last night and they unfortunately came up short, falling late to the Pirates, who finally broke an eight-game losing streak. LA had won two in a row in Boston before returning home and looked flat from the start last night. But with a night to re-focus and with what I believe to be the clearly superior starter on the mound for it this evening, I look for LA to respond on Tuesday. The Pirates see Trevor Williams (4-5, 5.06 ERA) toe the slab for Pittsburgh. Williams most recently got blasted for six runs off eight hits in a loss to the Brewers on Wednesday. Griffin Canning (4-6, 4.76) gets the nod for the home side and he’s returning from a short stint on the IL. Previous to that Canning threw six scoreless innings in a victory. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is just 2-6 in its last eight road games following a road victory. - LA is still 7-3 in its last ten interleague home games as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range. The verdict: Look for Canning to deliver vs. the volatile Williams; lay the price with confidence! |
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08-13-19 | Cardinals -175 v. Royals | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 33 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 7* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. I think that Jack Flaherty (5-7, 3.72 ERA) and the National League Cardinals offer great value here to smash Glenn Sparkman (3-7, 5.71) and the American League Royals. The Royals return home from a 3-6 road trip, while the Cardinals are in the thick of a wildcard race. Flaherty enters on top form, while only 1-1 over his last six trips to the hill, he’s posted a minuscule 0.94 ERA in that span (he’s faced the Royals once and dominated in that matchup as well, giving up two runs over seven innings in 2018.) Sparkman comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having posted four straight poor outings, allowing 22 runs over his last 19 2/3’s frames of work. Key Trends: - St. Louis is 10-6 this year as a road favorite of -110 or higher. - Kansas City is just 14-24 as a home underdog. The verdict: It’s important to note that KC has a total of just 48 home runs over 58 games at home so far this year, 28th out of 30 teams. Look for Flaherty to easily out duel his volatile counterpart; lay the price! |
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08-13-19 | Mets v. Braves -114 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. It’s a big game for both teams and clearly the oddsmakers think these starting pitchers are very evenly matched. And in my opinion, that makes the home field advantage a very real advantage for Max Fried (13-4, 4.11 ERA) over his counterpart Zach Wheeler (9-6, 4.20). Wheeler enters off a gem vs. the Marlins on Tuesday and he comes in on a 15-innings scoreless streak (he’s a pedestrian 4-4 with a 4.89 ERA on the road this year.) Fried comes in off a strong outing as well, striking out ten and allowing three runs off six hits and a walk over six innings in what turned out to be a victory over the hard-hitting Twins on Wednesday. Fried has won four straight and struck out 25 over his last 21.2 innings of work. Key Trends: - New York is just 8-20 (-10.6 units) this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - Atlanta is 16-9 (+5.2 units) at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: As good as Wheeler has been of late, I given Fried the big nod on the bump because of home field in this spot; lay the short price! |
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08-12-19 | Red Sox v. Indians +100 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Cleveland Indians. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular contest. The Red Sox see Eduardo Rodriguez (13-5, 4.17 ERA) toe the slab for the visitors, while the home side counters with Zach Plesac (6-3, 3.13). Boston is now 7.5 games back in the Wild card race and Cleveland has a big opportunity to drive some final nails in the coffin for the defending champs. Plesac made his debut in Boston this year and he’d give up one run over six innings in the victory. Plesac comes in off a gem as well, going six shutout frames vs. the Rangers. Rodriguez has been a bright spot for Boston this year, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Key Trends: - The Red Sox are just 11-20 (-10.1 units) this season when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. - The Indians are 24-12 (+7.8 units) this year vs. southpaws. The verdict: Boston has lost 11 of its last 14, while Cleveland has won nine of its last 12. Expect these trends to continue on Monday night; play on the Indians! |
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08-11-19 | Indians v. Twins -150 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -150 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* CA$H-BOMB on the Minnesota Twins. The Twins moved a game ahead of the Indians with yesterdays’ victory and I believe the home side carries that momentum over here. Minnesota has to be feeling confident as well by sending ace Jose Berrios (10-6, 3.24 ERA) to the hill, as he’s 5-3 with a 3.86 ERA over ten career starts vs. Cleveland. The visitors counter with Aaron Civale (1-1, 0.75) who has given up only one run over 12 innings spanning two major league starts. Clearly though Civale faces his stiffest test of his young career tonight. Key Trends: - Cleveland is just 11-13 in its last 24 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - Minnesota is 56-33 vs. right-handed starters this year. The verdict: I think Civale takes a step back finally in this difficult matchup; lay the price! |
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08-11-19 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 10 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -130 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the over Yanks/Jays. These are two decent starting pitchers, but I still think this game is going to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. The visitors go with Masahiro Tanaka (7-6, 4.93 ERA), while the home side goes with Trent Thornton (4-7, 5.55). Tanaka is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two starts vs. Toronto this year, while Thornton is 0-0 with a 9.72 ERA in two starts vs. New York. Key Trends: - New York has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which it allowed five or more runs in. The verdict: New York last two of three at Toronto from June 4-6th and after dropping yesterday’s contest 5-4, I believe the heavily favored visiting side “comes to play” today. I think these starting pitchers get the hook early; play the over! |
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08-11-19 | Arsenal -106 v. Newcastle United | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 287 h 23 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on Arsenal. Both clubs made changes in the off-season, but Newcastle’s chemistry out of the gate has to be called into question in my opinion. Even if the Gunners have the home field advantage. Arsenal’s biggest issue has been consistency from game to game, but in the season opener, I’m not questioning the clubs focus this afternoon. Key Trends: - Arsenal has won 12 of the last 13 in this series. The verdict: Magpies boss Steve Bruce is going to have to wait to earn his first victory and I don’t see his team earning a draw either. It’s now or never for Arsenal this year as it’ll have to challenge for a top four after failing to do so on a number of occasions last year. In my opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value;” play on Arsenal! |
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08-10-19 | Cowboys v. 49ers OVER 36 | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -105 | 244 h 10 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the over Boys/49ers. These NFC clubs are familiar with each other. Neither team though has been given much of a chance to earn a Super Bowl championship by the oddsmakers this year. Each will be out to prove them wrong and both have plenty of issues on both sides of the ball to work through. The verdict: These teams met in last year’s pre-season opener as well and San Fran won 24-21. I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. At some point Ezekiel Elliot will sign with Dallas, but even if he was officially on the roster at this point, he wouldn’t be suiting up today anyways. Both teams have plenty of key position battles going on and I believe this is going to lead to a higher-scoring shootout once it’s all said and done; play the over! |
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08-10-19 | Bengals +5 v. Chiefs | 17-38 | Loss | -109 | 243 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Bengals. The Chiefs have their QB situation under control, but they’re going to be heavily looking at their No. 3 RB behind Damien Williams and Carlos Hyde. The Bengals on the other hand are auditioning players for the No. 1 WR role after AJ Green went down with a season ending injury. Cincinnati is also stacked defensively. The Chiefs know they can put points on the board, but an added emphasis on the defensive end will clearly be a top priority for the team in the preseason. Key Trends: - While it’s only Game 1 of the preseason, it’s still significant to note that Cincinnati has covered in its previous four road games and it’s also a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. the AFC. The verdict: This one means a lot more to the Bengals, who have some serious competitions going on in the starters positions; grab the points! |
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08-10-19 | Rams v. Raiders -3 | 3-14 | Win | 100 | 243 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Raiders. I got down early and got a favorable line in this one. LA made it all the way to the Super Bowl and then laid an egg vs. Tom Brady and company and historically the year after a setback in the big game hasn’t been good to a team. The Raiders won’t be lacking for motivation here after last year’s disappointing season. The verdict: The difference maker here? Sean McVay isn’t expected to play any of his star offensive players here. Jon Gruden on the other hand is about run several competitions at key positions throughout the preseason. I’m expecting a completely lop-sided blowout; lay the points! |
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08-10-19 | Brighton & Hove Albion v. Watford -106 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -106 | 264 h 30 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on Watford. Watford comes into the season after a full season under Javi Gracia. Brighton just missed the relegation fate three months ago and it sports a new manager in Graham Potter. Gracia has welcomed high-profile offensive weapons in Ismalia Sarr and Danny Welbeck and Watford looks ready for the season after recent friendly victories over Real Sociedad and Bayer Leverkusen. The Seagulls’ immediate direction is a bit of a question mark under Potter and I believe that’s going to be the difference in this one. The verdict: I think Watford comes into the season much more prepared; lay the short price for the regulation victory! |
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08-10-19 | Everton v. Crystal Palace UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 264 h 30 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Everton/Crystal Palace. Marco Silva came over to Everton via the transfer market in order to bring the glory days back to Goodison Park. Crystal Palace star player Wilfried Zaha was reportedly sent him on Thursday with personal issues and he’s not expected to be in the line-up here. ames Tomkins (groin), Jeffrey Schlupp (ankle) and Mamadou Sakho (knee) are all out of contention for Palace as well. Everton will be missing Cenk Tosun and Tom Davies. The verdict: Everton has gotten strong over the three month window, but the home side won’t be going down without a fight. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” not a “shootout.” Play the under! |
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08-10-19 | Manchester City v. West Ham United +1024 | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 262 h 0 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on West Ham United. An upset over the League defending Champs on Opening Day Saturday? At this price, I absolutely feel that the Hammers are worth a shot. West Ham United spent big money in the offseason and it’s out to make a big statement on home turf on opening day. Expectations have increased, as qualification for European Football are now what everyone is after. At this point last season the Hammers fell 4-0 to Liverpool and it was an uphill battle after that. With that thought as motivation, I think that the defending champs are indeed ripe for the picking here. Man City lost some players and gained some others and is considered the favorite to repeat as Champion this year. The verdict: City won the last matchup between the clubs less than a month ago, 4-1 in the Premier League Asia Trophy. The revenge angle works here as well. Also note that I believe Man City gets caught looking ahead to its matchup vs. Tottenham Hotspur next weekend. There are enough situational factors working in favor of this big underdog to pull the trigger! |
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08-09-19 | Vikings +3 v. Saints | Top | 34-25 | Win | 100 | 219 h 26 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings. The Saints have been knocked out of the playoffs on heart-breaking last moment plays in back-to-back seasons. While those two setbacks will clearly be driving Drew Brees and company, I’d argue that Minnesota is by far the “hungrier” team this season. The Vikes won the division title in 2015 and 2017 and last year they were just 8-7-1 after signing veteran QB Kirk Cousins. Key Trends: These teams have played in 30 regular season games and four playoff games. Minnesota is 22-12 all time in the series, 19-11 in the regular season and 3-1 in the postseason. The verdict: Neither team’s starters will see much or any time today obviously. But Minnesota has many competitions going on for a starters role and I believe that alone will prove to be the difference here. Outright victory? Obviously very possible, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can! |
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08-09-19 | Bucs v. Steelers OVER 37 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 219 h 57 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the over Bucs/Steelers. There’s no more meaningless game the Game 1 of the preseason. Neither side’s star players are expected to see much (if any) playing time today. Tampa Bay debut’s its new coach Bruce Arians though, who will be eager to try and make a statement early. Pittsburgh got rid of Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, meaning that there’s going to be some serious competition at these offensive skill positions throughout the pre-season. When you add up all these situational factors for both teams, I believe it points to more of a high-scoring “shootout,” than a lower-scoring “chess match.” The verdict: Both teams come in off disappointing campaigns and each has a lot to work through over these first four preseason games. I think each open up the playbook; play the over! |
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08-09-19 | Braves -135 v. Marlins | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* BIG TIGER on the Atlanta Braves. Caleb Smith (7-5, 3.35 ERA) has been a bright spot on the Marlins all year. He’s been better at home than on the road as well and he enters off an unfortunate loss for the Rays, giving up three runs over five innings. Julio Teheran (6-7, 3.46 ERA) comes in off a similar performance and overall it’s been a resurgent season for the veteran. Teheran has been better at home than on the road as well, but I still believe the Braves hold significant advantages in every other department. Key Trends: - ATL is 16-10 vs. southpaws this year. - Miami is 30-53 vs. right-handed starters this season. The verdict: Unfortunately for Smith, he plays on the Marlins. I like Teheran to take advantage of this anemic Miami line-up for at ATL to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night; lay the price! |
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08-08-19 | Chargers v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 198 h 39 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals. Kyler Murray will be front and center under center for the Cardinals tonight. Murray is a player that has the potential to make an instant impact on the field and I believe he’s going to make the most of his very first opportunity vs. this vanilla Chargers’ defensive unit. Underneath coach Anthony Lynn the Chargers are 1-3 and 2-2 in the preseason. Arizona though not only has a new QB, but it also has a new coach in Kliff Kingsbury, who I believe will be out to make a statement as well and get his tenure started off on the “right foot.” From a situational stand point, I absolutely feel that this one sets up great for the home side. Key Trends: Neither team is expected to see its star players see much action today. Except of course for Cardinals’ rookie Murray. Look for Arizona to get the 2019/20 season started off with a solid win; lay the short points! |
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08-08-19 | Patriots v. Lions UNDER 37.5 | Top | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 195 h 10 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Pats/Lions. Tom Brady won’t be playing in this one. Neither will any of the starting offensive line or the starting RB’s. Bill Bellichick is expected to start try-outs and wannabe’s on both sides of the field today. While most of Detroit’s star players will also obviously be sitting this one out, the difference is that this one clearly “means” much more to Detroit after its sub-par season a year ago. Lions head coach Pat Patricia used to be the defensive coordinator of the Patriots and he’s reportedly on the “hot seat” coming into this season. The Lions have plenty of new faces auditioning for a role on the starting line-up and I believe this is a big difference maker in Week 1 as well. The verdict: Additionally note that when New England did come to Detroit last year, the Lions won 26-10, as Patricia masterfully dominated the play-calling. This one sets up as a defensive “under” in my opinion! |
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08-08-19 | Braves v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF MONTH on the UNDER Braves/Marlins. A couple of capable hurlers go head-to-head in this one and in my opinion, everything points to runs being at a premium. Dallas Keuchel (3-4, 3.86 ERA) toes the rubber for the Braves, while the home side counters with Elieser Hernandez (1-4, 5.66). Hernandez comes in confident after his best start of the year, holding the hard-hitting D-Backs to one run off three hits with two walks over four innings on Sunday. Keuchel most recently allowed three runs off four hits and a walk over seven innings while striking out four in a no-decision to the Reds. Over 56 innings Keuchel has a 42/19 K/W. Key Trends: - The Braves have seen the total go under in eight of their last ten vs. teams with a losing record. - Miami has seen the total dip under in five of six this year after two straight losses by four runs or more. The verdict: I think that the Fish have a difficult time posting any offense here; this number is a little high, play the under! |
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08-07-19 | Phillies +1.5 v. Diamondbacks | 1-6 | Loss | -158 | 27 h 27 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies on the run line. While I believe the outright win is not out of the question, in a contest which I see being decided late or even in extra time, I’m going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Jason Vargas (6-5, 3.93 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors and he was solid in Phillies’ debut, allowing two runs with five K’s over seven innings in a victory over the White Sox on Friday. The home side counters with Zac Gallen (1-3, 2.72) who will make his debut for his new team today after rooming over from the Marlins. Key Trends: - Philadelphia is 7-2 in its last nine as a National League road dog in the +135 to +175 range. The verdict: I love Vargas in this matchup; that said, lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs (as mentioned off the top!) |
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08-07-19 | Padres -145 v. Mariners | 2-3 | Loss | -145 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the San Diego Padres. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitchers and in my opinion, the visitors definitely have the upper-hand in this one. The Padres see Joey Lucchesi (7-6, 4.23 ERA) toe the slab and he most recently gave up four runs while striking out four over six innings in a loss to the hard-hitting Dodgers on Thursday. Despite the shaky start, Lucchesi enters with an elite 111/38 K/W thus far. The home side goes with the volatile Yusei Kikuchi (4-8, 5.49) who was rocked for six runs off nine hits and striking out one over four innings in a loss to the Astros on Friday. Key Trends: - San Diego is 7-2 in its last nine interleague road games as a favorite in the -135 to -155 range. - The Mariners are only 2-5 in their last seven home games as an underdog in the +135 to +155 range. The verdict: I love Lucchesi in this matchup and I believe he could/should in fact be a much larger fav. Lay the price with confidence! |
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