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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-07-19 | Padres -145 v. Mariners | 2-3 | Loss | -145 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the San Diego Padres. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitchers and in my opinion, the visitors definitely have the upper-hand in this one. The Padres see Joey Lucchesi (7-6, 4.23 ERA) toe the slab and he most recently gave up four runs while striking out four over six innings in a loss to the hard-hitting Dodgers on Thursday. Despite the shaky start, Lucchesi enters with an elite 111/38 K/W thus far. The home side goes with the volatile Yusei Kikuchi (4-8, 5.49) who was rocked for six runs off nine hits and striking out one over four innings in a loss to the Astros on Friday. Key Trends: - San Diego is 7-2 in its last nine interleague road games as a favorite in the -135 to -155 range. - The Mariners are only 2-5 in their last seven home games as an underdog in the +135 to +155 range. The verdict: I love Lucchesi in this matchup and I believe he could/should in fact be a much larger fav. Lay the price with confidence! |
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08-07-19 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Dodgers | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cardinals on the run-line. While the outright win isn’t out of the question in my opinion, in a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra time, I’m going to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Joe Flaherty (5-6, 3.93 ERA) gets the call for the visitors and he’s coming off a dominant outing vs. the Cubs on Thursday, going seven scoreless with one hit two walks and nine K’s. The home side counters with Dustin May (0-1, 4.76), who has had one decent start and one poor start as he fills in for the injury Hyun-Jin Ryu and Ross Stripling. Key Trends: - St. Louis is 8-3 in its last 11 National League day games as an underdog in the +150 to +175 range. The verdict: Note that over his last five starts Flaherty has been downright filthy, giving up just four earned runs with a 39/9 K/W over 31.1 frames of work. |
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08-07-19 | A's v. Cubs -142 | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. These are two playoff hopeful clubs and in my opinion, home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Volatile Homer Bailey (9-7, 5.20 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors and he comes in off back-to-back decent starts, but if the veteran has one area in which he’s struggled in this year, it’s unquestionably been his play on the road where he’s just 3-4 with a 7.47 ERA. Jose Quintana (9-7, 4.40) comes in off a strong start as well, holding the Brewers to two runs with five K’s and no walks over six innings. Key Trends: - Oakland is just 2-7 in its last nine interleague day games as an underdog in the +135 to +155 range. - Chicago is 10-6 in its last 16 interleague home games as a favorite in the -135 to -155 range. The verdict: Over his last five starts Quintana is 4-0 and I expect him to once again take advantage of the “Friendly Confines.” Lay the price! |
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08-07-19 | Rangers v. Indians -188 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. There was an over night pitching change in this one. I liked the Indians before, and I still like the Tribe despite the change. This is the first game of the double-header, with Ariel Jurado (6-6, 4.29 ERA) toeing the slab for the visitors and Zach Plesac (6-3, 3.41) countering for the Indians. Jurado is a terrible 1-2 with a 7.20 ERA over his last four starts. Plesac on the other hand is 4-1 with a 3.51 ERA at home this year. Key Trends: - Texas is just 5-12 this season as a road dog in the +150 to +200 range. - Cleveland is 14-7 at home as a favorite in the same price range. The verdict: This one sets up perfectly for the hard-hitting home side, who I believe will take full advantage of the over night switch; lay the price! |
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08-06-19 | Braves v. Twins -143 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -143 | 24 h 8 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Twins. I think this one favors the home side in this interleague matchup. The Braves see the volatile Mike Foltynewicz (2-5, 6.37 ERA) toe the slab, while the home side counters with Jose Berrios (10-5, 2.80). Foltnewicz was sent to the minors back in June and he’s back in the big leagues after a respectable stint. Still, Foltynewicz is being thrown to the wolves here in this tough matchup in my opinion (note the ATL has now lost three of its last four games.) Berrios comes in with confidence after back-to-back victories, most recently striking out a season-high 11 batters in a victory over Miami on Wednesday (seven shutout frames.) Key Trends: - Atlanta is just 5-12 (-5.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. - Minnesota is 20-9 at home as a favorite of -150 or higher. The verdict: In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Lay the reasonable mid-sized price! |
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08-05-19 | Blue Jays v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the under Jays/Rays. Jacob Waguespack (2-1, 4.80 ERA) comes in off a victory over the Royals on Wednesday, allowing one run off three hits with two K’s over six frames. Over 30 innings the 25 year old has a sharp 24:9 K:BB and he continues to improve with each outing. Charlie Morton (12-3, 2.78) gave up four runs to the Red Sox on Tuesday, but he’ll be feeling confident that he can bounce back here as he’s 6-1 with a 2.55 ERA at home. Key Trends: - Toronto has seen the total go under the number in eight of 11 American League road games in which it’s an underdog in the -175 to -225 range. - Tampa Bay has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last 11 home AL contests as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range. The verdict: This one has “duel” written all over it; play the under! |
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08-05-19 | Brewers -135 v. Pirates | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* CLASH-OF-THE-TITANS on the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers’ Jordan Lyles (6-7, 5.15 ERA) has a big opportunity to get back on track against his former team here and to help Milwaukee’s chances at one of the Wild Cards. Lyles though comes in off a gem vs. the surging A’s on Wednesday, holding them to one run off three hits with two walks while striking out four over five innings. Now with an opportunity to get immediate revenge on the team that traded him, I look for the veteran to deliver the goods here. Dario Agrazal most recently allowed three runs off six hits in a loss to the Reds on Wednesday for Pittsburgh and he’s now posted back-to-back poor outings. Key Trends: - Milwaukee is 7-2 in its last nine National League road games as a favorite in the -115 to -135 range. - Pittsburgh is 4-6 in its last ten National League home games as an underdog in the -110 to -130 range. The verdict: I like Lyles and the playoff hungry Brewers to step up and deliver the goods; lay the short price! |
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08-04-19 | Cardinals v. A's -124 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Oakland A’s. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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08-04-19 | Reds v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Reds/Braves. Sonny Gray is 6-6 for the Reds, while Julio Teheran is 6-7 for the Braves. Gray though sports a respectable 3.45 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, while Teheran has a 3.38 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Gray got an early lead vs. the Pirates in his last start and then cruised to the victory on Monday after allowing four runs off six hits. Overall Gray enters August on fire, having posted a 2.24 ERA and a 39/7 K/W in July. Teheran enters off a gem as well, giving up two runs off seven hits over seven innings, striking out six and walking two. Over his last six starts Teheran has posted a 1.87 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP and a sharp 33/10 K/W. Key Trends: - Cincinnati has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 12 National League road games in which the total in the contest is either 9 or 9.5. - The Braves have seen the total dip below the posted number in 13 of their last 21 at home when the total in the game is set at either 9 or 9.5. The verdict: All signs point to a classic “duel” in this one; play the under! |
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08-03-19 | Cardinals v. A's -130 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Oakland A’s. Adam Wainwright (7-7, 4.47 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the A’s turn to Tanner Roark (6-7, 4.24). Wainwright enters off a decent outing vs. the Cubs on Tuesday, but while he’s 5-2 with a 2.26 ERA at home, note that Wainwright is just 2-5 with a ballooned 7.16 ERA on the road this season. Roark make his first start for his new team; so far he owns a respectable 3.99 ERA in all “home” situations this year. Key Trends: - St. Louis is only 2-6 in its last eight afternoon National League road games as an underdog in the +115 to +135 range. - The A’s are now 7-1 in their last eight home day games as a favorite in the -115 to -135 range. The verdict: Look for Roark to deliver the goods in his first start for his new team and for Wainwright’s road struggles to continue; great price on the A’s! |
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08-03-19 | Reds v. Braves -118 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 28 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. I think Trevor Bauer (9-8, 3.79 ERA) will struggle in his first start for his new team in this NL format. The Braves’ Dallas Keuchel (3-4, 3.86) will look to take advantage. Bauer is only 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in four starts since the break (and in his last trip to the hill he was crushed for eight runs over 4 1/3’s innings vs. the soft-hitting Royals.) Keuchel has a 3.52 ERA in six starts in July. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is just 17-28 (-4.8 units) this year as a road dog of +100 or higher. - Atlanta is 21-9 (+7.1 units) this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: Keuchel at this price and considering Bauer’s recent form is a “steal” in my opinion; lay the price! |
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08-03-19 | Mariners v. Astros -180 | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Houston Astros. I like Aaron Sanchez (3-14, 6.07 ERA) to match his counterpart Marco Gonzales (12-8, 4.21) inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the hard-hitting home side is the correct call in this particular matchup. Sanchez is without question in a “funk” as he’s winless over his last 17 starts (0-13), but he’ll take confidence in the fact that he’s 2-0 with a 1.31 ERA in six appearances vs. Seattle. Gonzales has been sharp overall of late, but note that he’s 0-3 with a 7.58 ERA in five career appearances vs. Houston (that includes going 0-1 with a 4.35 ERA in two starts this year.) Key Trends: - Seattle is a terrible 5-17 (-8.1 units) this year as a road dog of +150 or higher. - Houston is 23-7 (+12.5 units) this season vs. southpaws. The verdict: As stated off the top, I think it’ll be a war of attrition on the hill tonight, which I then believe definitely swings the favor to the home side; lay the price! |
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08-03-19 | Mets -120 v. Pirates | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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08-03-19 | Brewers v. Cubs -140 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. Chicago pulled away for an easy victory yesterday afternoon and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. The home side goes with Cole Hamels (6-3, 2.98 ERA) who has missed the last five weeks because of an oblique issue. Hamels comes in focused and refreshed for the final push of the season and he’s already dominated the Brewers twice this year, giving up two runs in 14-8 victory on April 6th, before then giving up one run over seven innings on May 11th. Milwaukee sees Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 3.48) take the hill and he had his last start pushed back after exiting his start vs. the Cubs on July 26th with a shoulder issue. Gonzalez has enjoyed success vs. the Cubs throughout his career, but i think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Key Trends: - As note that Milwaukee is now 11-16 (-3 units) this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - Chicago is an amazing 21-7 (+12.4 units) at home this season with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: “Home field” is a very real deciding factor for Hamels here; lay the price! |
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08-02-19 | Mets v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the over Mets/Pirates. Two suspect starters go head-to-head in this one and I believe that runs are going to be plentiful. Steven Matz (6-6, 4.32 ERA) gets the all for the Mets and he’ll be opposed by Trevor Williams (3-4, 4.77) of the Pirates. Pittsburgh got swept in New York just last weekend and it’s now firmly in the basement of the NL. The Mets come in with plenty of momentum after winning seven straight. Matz dominated the Pirates at home last weekend, but note that while he’s 4-0 with a 2.06 ERA at home, he’s a poor 2-6 with a 6.40 ERA on the road this season. Williams looked sharp against the Mets last week, but note that he’s a poor 1-1 with a 5.71 ERA at home this season. Key Trends: - The Mets have seen the total go over in eight of 12 already this year on the road with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. - The Pirates have seen the total fly over in 16 of 21 already this season when the total is set between 9 and 9.5. The verdict: All signs point to a high-scoring slug-fest in my opinion; play the over! |
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08-01-19 | Broncos v. Falcons +3 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Atlanta Falcons. Denver has a new head coach and a new QB. The Broncos fired Vance Joseph and hired the defensive minded Vic Fangio from the Bears. QB Case Keenum is gone and veteran Joe Flacco is in. Flacco likely won’t even play tonight, leaving duties to rookie Drew Lock. The Falcons have plenty of issues as well, but the veteran offensive core returns. While most of those starters won’t be suiting up here, I still think that Atlanta has the advantage here. Denver is having to work through many different issues with new coaching personnel and in the Hall Of Fame Game, I believe the advantage swings to the more experienced Falcons. The verdict: While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can; play on the Falcons! |
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08-01-19 | Astros v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -113 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the over Astros/Indians. It’s Gerritt Cole (12-5, 2.94 ERA) of the Astros, vs. Danny Salazar (0-0, 0.00) of the Indians in this one. Houston made some moves at the deadline to acquire sluggers Yasiel Puig and Franmill Reyes and each is expected to make his debut tonight. Cole’s been phenomenal, but the book is out on his counterpart obviously. Key Trends: - Houston has seen the total go over in nine of its last 12 as a road favorite of -175 or higher. - Cleveland has seen the total soar over in seven of its last ten as an underdog go +150 or higher. The verdict: I believe we’re going to see an explosive finish in the finale of this important American League contest; play the over! |
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08-01-19 | Twins -151 v. Marlins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -151 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Minnesota Twins. Minnesota has won the first two games of this series and I believe the Twins will keep the foot on the gas here as well. This is based primarily on the fact that Twins’ starter Michael Pineda (7-5, 4.30 ERA) is finally rounding into form, going 3-2 with a 2.87 ERA. Conversely his counter Jordan Yamomoto (4-2, 3.64) has regressed after a hot start, posting a poor 9.00 ERA over his past three trips to the mound. Key Trends: - Minnesota is 16-4 (+10.9 units) this year on the road with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. - Miami is just 7-21 (-10.6 units) this season at home with a money line in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, play the Twins! |
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07-31-19 | Mets v. White Sox +1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -113 | 25 h 53 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago White Sox run line. I’m laying the “pick em” price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Mets go with ace Jacob deGrom (6-7, 2.86 ERA), while the home side sees ace Lucas Giolito (11-5, 3.52) toe the slab. Giolito comes in off a terrible start vs. the Twins, allowing four home runs, but starts like that have truly been few and far between for a while now for the hard-throwing right-hander and I think he’s going to be able to match deGrom’s effort this evening. Key Trends: - The Mets are just 2-8 in their last ten interleague night home games as a favorite in the -135 to -175 range. - Chicago is 10-5 in its last 15 interleague home games as an underdog in the +140 to +175 range. The verdict: In a contest which I see being decided late or even in extras, I’m playing this one on the run line! |
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07-31-19 | Twins -174 v. Marlins | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 8 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins. No upsets here as I expect the hard-hitting Twins and Jose Berrios (9-5, 2.94 ERA) to easily get the better of the lowly Marlins and Sandy Alcantara (4-9, 4.18). Alcantara is just 1-4 with a 4.75 ERA over his last eight starts, but he owns a deplorable 6.35 ERA over his last three trips to the hill. Key Trends: - Minnesota is 8-3 in its last 11 interleague night games as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range. - Miami only 7-13 in its last 20 home interleague contests as an underdog in the +150 to +200 range. The verdict: Note as well that the Marlins are expected to be without slugging first baseman Garrett Cooper (11 homer runs, .294 batting average and 38 RBIs) with a hamstring injury. This one has “blowout” written all over it; play on the Twins! |
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07-31-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies +125 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 8 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Colorado Rockies. Hyun Jin Ryu (11-2, 1.74 ERA) has been unbelievable overall this year, but I think he’ll struggle at Coors Field, the ballpark which definitely “evens the field” (note that Ryu is just 4-7 with a 5.34 ERA in 12 match ups lifetime vs. the Rockies as well.) German Marquez (10-5, 4.88) gets the nod for the home side and he comes in on top form, having gone back-to-back seven-inning efforts. The verdict: Marquez has to be feeling confident here as well as note that he’s 2-1 with a sharp 2.89 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Dodgers. Ryu can’t be feeling as good though, as note that he’s 1-4 with a 9.15 ERA in five starts at Coors. This one wreaks of “upset.” Play on the Rockies! |
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07-31-19 | Diamondbacks v. Yankees -131 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Yankees. Zach Greinke (10-4, 2.87 ERA) is enjoying a strong season for the D-Backs. But after losing 4-2 in yesterday’s series opener, I think that Mashario Tanaka (7-6, 4.79) will bounce back after a scuffling stretch personally, while also helping his team bounce back from yesterday’s setback. Key Trends: - Arizona is just 37-39 vs. right-handed starters this year - The D-Backs are a money-burning 67-67 the L2 years in all “day” games. - New York is 26-15 in all day games this season. - The Yanks are 52-24 vs. right-handed starters this season. The verdict: I think the “big bats” of New York “wake up” here and I expect Tanaka to match Greinke’s effort. In a scenario like that, I definitely think that the value lies with home side in this one! |
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07-31-19 | Pirates v. Reds -212 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Cincinnati Reds. No upsets here, as I think that Louis Castillo (9-4, 2.71 ERA) will bounce back from a horrible start (rare) and get the better of his overachieving rookie counterpart Dario Agrazal (2-1, 3.24). The Pirates broke a seven game slide with a wild 11-4 win last night, a victory which featured a benches clearing brawl. I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for Pittsburgh after that emotional win. Castillo was blasted for six runs over five innings in a loss to the Rockies on Friday, but he’s a sharp 5-3 with a 2.28 ERA at home this season (and a red hot 8-1 with a 2.45 ERA in all “night” games.) Agrazal comes in off his worst start of his pro career, getting rocked for five rusn over five innings in 6-3 loss to the Mets on Friday. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is just 2-6 in its last eight road games after scoring ten or more runs in its previous contest. - The Reds are 7-2 in their last nine day home games after allowing ten or more runs in their previous contest. The verdict: After his last sub-par outing, I think that Castillo comes in “focused on the task at hand.” Lay the price with confidence! |
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07-30-19 | Mets v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -113 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the over Mets/White Sox. Noah Syndergaard is 7-5 with a 4.33 ERA this year, while Reynaldo Lopez is 5-9 with a 5.52 ERA. Neither starter can be happy with their overall record, but each has admittedly looked a lot better over the last month or so. Despite that though, I think this interleague contest sets up as a slug-fest and I expect each of these guys to “get the hook” early. Key Trends: - As note that New York has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 interleague night road games in which it’s a favorite in the -140 to -160 range. - Chicago has seen the total eclipse the posted number in nine of its last 16 home games as an underdog in the +140 to +160 range. The verdict: I think this interleague contest eclipses the posted number sooner, rather than later; play the over! |
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07-30-19 | Twins -153 v. Marlins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Minnesota Twins. I think that Jake Odorizzi (11-5, 3.84 ERA) is going to easily get the better of his younger counterpart Zac Gallen (1-2, 2.76) tonight. Odorrizzi is 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA in five career starts vs. the Marlins, including 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA at Marlins Park. Gallen has made six major league starts and while he enters off a decent showing vs. the White Sox, clearly the sample size is just too small and I believe he’s definitely in over his head in this particular matchup. Key Trends: - Minnesota is 7-2 in its last nine interleague road games as a favorite in the -140 to -160 range. - Miami is still only 3-8 in its last 11 night home games as an underdog in the +135 to +155 range. The verdict: I like Odorizzi to bounce back after a poor start vs. the Yanks and to continue his strong trend of domination vs. the Marlins; lay the price with confidence! |
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07-29-19 | Tigers v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -126 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* BIG TIGER on the Angels on the run line. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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07-29-19 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the over D-Backs/Marlins. Neither of these starters instills a ton of confidence and in my opinion, this line is going to fly over sooner, rather than later. Caleb Smith (6-4, 3.30 ERA) goes for Miami, while Arizona turns to Merrill Kelly (7-10, 4.22). Miami won the opener of this four-game series 3-2, while Arizona took the second game 9-2. Miami then won 5-1 on Sunday. I believe all signs point to a higher-scoring affair here though. Smith has never faced the D-Backs in his career and while he’s been solid overall, it’s interesting to note that he has a poor 5.06 ERA in the first inning this year. Kelly has allowed 19 homers in 21 starts. Key Trends: - Arizona has seen the total go over the number in 31 of 54 on the road already this year. - The D-Backs have seen the total soar over in 18 of 27 vs. southpaws. - Miami has seen the total go over in 12 of 17 already this year at home when the total is between 8 and 8.5. The verdict: Note as well that Kelly has been much worse on the road (4.98 ERA) than at home (3.57). This one has “slugfest” written all over it, play the over! |
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07-28-19 | Yankees +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* run line play on the New York Yankees. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Revenge. I think it works here. After three straight blowout losses, I think the high-powered Yanks bring their “A” game to the table on the nationally televised Sunday night game. Key Trends: - New York is already 9-4 (+2.9 units) this year after having lost four or five of its last six games. - Boston is already just 12-14 (-8 units) this season after having won five or six of its last seven games. The verdict: These starters are a “wash,” but the desperation level in which the Yanks play with tonight ends up being the situational difference; lay the pick em price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance! |
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07-28-19 | Diamondbacks -155 v. Marlins | 1-5 | Loss | -155 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Miami scored a 3-2 upset in ten innings on Friday, but Arizona rolled to a 9-2 victory on Saturday. No upsets here in my opinion though on Sunday either as I look for Robbie Ray (9-6, 3.95 ERA) of the D-Backs to easily get the better of his volatile counterpart Elieser Hernandez (1-4, 5.24). Ray has produced four quality starts in a row, going 4-0 with a 3.33 ERA in the process. Overall Ray is 1-1 with a 1.59 ERA lifetime in Miami. Hernandez on the other hand is 0-1 with an atrocious 9.39 ERA in six relief outings this year and 1-3 with a 4.05 ERA in five starts. Key Trends: - Arizona is a perfect 4-0 this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range. - Miami is a terrible 6-19 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: I’m banking on Ray continuing his hot form as he continues to be the subject of trade rumors; lay the price with confidence! |
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07-28-19 | Pirates v. Mets -129 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets. Ultimately I think this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what this line would suggest. The visitors go with the volatile Chris Archer (3-7, 5.40 ERA), while the home side counters with Jason Vargas (5-5, 3.96). New York has won three straight overall and it’s hungry for the series sweep here. The Pirates on the other hand are clearly moving in the opposite direction now having gone just 2-13 since the break. Vargas comes in off a gem as well, holding the Friars scoreless over six frames. Archer comes in off a terrible performance, allowing four runs over six innings in a loss to St. Louis. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is a brutal 10-15 as a road underdog in the +100 to +150 range this year. - The Mets are 10-5 in their last 15 as a home favorite in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: New York hasn’t thrown in the towel yet; lay this reasonable price with confidence! |
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07-28-19 | Rockies v. Reds -158 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cincinnati Reds. Alex Wood (0-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his season debut for Cincinnati and I think he’ll have more than enough in the tank to get the better of his volatile counterpart Peter Lambert (2-2, 5.93). Wood went 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA in four rehab assignments and he was 9-7 with a 3.68 ERA for the Dodgers last year. Lambert is 0-2 over his last six trips to the hill, giving up three runs over five innings in a loss at Washington most recently. Key Trends: - Colorado is just 23-31 on the road this year. - Cincinnati is 5-2 as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range this season. The verdict: Wood couldn’t have asked for a better first matchup; expect the veteran to make the most of it and lay this price with confidence! |
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07-28-19 | Braves v. Phillies -140 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. No need to overthink this one. After dropping the first two games of this series, I think the Phillies bounce back in the finale with their ace on the mound (I had a play on Atlanta last night.) Kevin Gausman (3-5, 5.71 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the Phillies go with Aaron Nola (8-2, 3.64). Gausman returned from injury and looked decent in his first start back vs. the Nationals, but note that he’s 0-2 with a 5.51 ERA in three career starts vs. Philadelphia. Nola on the other hand is 9-3 with a 2.26 ERA in 15 career match ups vs. ATL. Overall Nola is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in July and I think he’ll be the difference maker in this crucial game for the home side. Key Trends: - Atlanta is just 5-10 (-3.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. - Philadelphia is 22-13 (+6.3 units) this season in all “day” games. The verdict: Considering the gravity of this game for Philadelphia, I think we’re getting an unbelievable price on Nola in this match-up; lay it! |
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07-27-19 | Indians -192 v. Royals | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. I think that Mike Clevinger (4-2, 3.61 ERA) and the hard-hitting Tribe are well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. The home side counters with the volatile Glenn Sparkman (3-6, 4.67). In four July starts Clevinger is 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA, walking five and striking out 34. Sparkman’s been much better at home than on the road throughout his career, but he’s a poor 0-1 with a ballooned 5.51 ERA in three career starts vs. the Tribe. Key Trends: - Cleveland is 14-4 this year as a favorite of -200 or higher. - KC is just 13-23 as a home dog this season. The verdict: Note as well that Clevinger is 7-0 with a 2.03 ERA in 11 career appearances vs. the Royals. Lay the price and expect a blowout! |
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07-27-19 | Cubs v. Brewers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 24 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the over Cubs/Brewers. Cubs’ starter Jon Lester (9-6, 3.87 ERA) comes in struggling, having allowed four or more runs in six of his last 12 starts. These teams are fighting for positioning and after yesterday’s 3-2 Milwaukee victory, I’m expecting much more of a “slug-fest” on Saturday. The Brewers go with Chase Anderson (5-2, 3.90) to toe the slab. Anderson has been sharp of late and while both pitchers have enjoyed success over their respective opponent today in the past, I believe that the situation and the numbers point to a higher-scoring affair this time around. Key Trends: - Chicago has seen the total go over the number in nine of its last 14 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - Milwaukee has seen the total go over in 12 of its last 20 overall. The verdict: I think these normally steady starters get chased early; play the over! |
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07-27-19 | Braves -126 v. Phillies | Top | 15-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS on the Atlanta Braves. I like the Braves to build off their beatdown victory in last night’s series opener. The visitors see Max Fried (10-4, 4.08 ERA) toe the slab, while Zach Eflin (7-10, 4.25) gets the nod for the home side. Fried makes his first start since the 15th when he exited a game vs. the Brewers with a blister issue (before that he held Milwaukee to three hits over five scoreless frames.) In seven career appearances vs. the Phillies Fried is 0-1 with a 3.77 ERA. Eflin has been a complete “gas can” over the last month or so and I have a hard time seeing the struggling starter just “flipping a switch” here (he’s gone 1-3 with a ballooned 9.38 ERA over his last five starts.) Key Trends: - Atlanta is 9-1 (+7.8 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range. - Philadelphia is just 11-15 (-6.5 units) this season vs. southpaws. The verdict: I believe Eflin gets chased early; all things considered, a great price! |
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07-26-19 | Giants v. Padres -130 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the San Diego Padres. No upsets here as I look for the scuffling home side to lay everything on the line tonight as it desperately tries to get back into the Wildcard race. Jeff Samrdzija (7-8, 4.08 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the Padres counter with Joey Lucchesi (7-5, 4.27.) The Padres won’t be lacking for motivation here either after the Giants swept them from July 1-3, outscoring them 30-11 in the process. Key Trends: - San Francisco is still only 11-14 this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - San Diego is still 17-10 (+8.4 units) in its last 27 after scoring two runs or less. The verdict: Look for the hungry home side to deliver the goods in this big time revenge scenario; lay the price! |
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07-26-19 | Twins -147 v. White Sox | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins. I like the Twins to build off their win yesterday. Minnesota hands the ball to Michael Pineda (6-5, 4.41 ERA), while the home side counters with Dylan Cease (1-2, 6.19). Pineda has given up one earned run in each of his past three trips to the hill, going 2-1 with 20 K’s and just two walks. Cease gave up four runs over five innings in a loss to the Rays on Sunday, which was his third start since being recalled. Key Trends: - Minnesota is 14-6 this season as a road favorite of -125 or higher. - Chicago is just 3-6 in its last nine vs. clubs with winning records. The verdict: Keep your eyes on Twins’ slugger Nelson Cruz, who hit three home runs in yesterday’s 10-3 series opening victory (he has eight dingers in his last nine games.) Chicago has lost 11 of its last 14 and I expect its struggles to continue here; lay the price! |
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07-26-19 | Diamondbacks -162 v. Marlins | 2-3 | Loss | -162 | 28 h 4 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. No upsets here as I think that Arizona ace Zack Greinke (10-4, 2.93 ERA) will easily get the better of his volatile counterpart Sandy Alcantara (4-9, 4.25) of the Marlins. Arizona is stuck right around the .500 mark and there’s no better time than right now to make its move for one of the Wild Cards. Alcantara has lost three straight, allowing a combined ten runs over his last 11 innings of work. Greinke on the other hand is 7-0 with a 3.19 ERA in 12 career appearances vs. Miami, including 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA in two starts vs. it last year. Greinke comes in off a strong performance, holding the Brewers to two runs over seven innings. Key Trends: - Arizona is a perfect 4-0 this year as a road favorite of -125 or higher. - Miami is a terrible 8-23 as a home dog of +125 or higher. The verdict: The stage is set for an epic destruction in my opinion and this line could/should in fact be much larger; lay it! |
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07-26-19 | Dodgers v. Nationals UNDER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 104 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Dodgers/Nationals. I’m expecting an all out “duel” here between these capable hurlers. Hyun-Jin Ryu (11-2, 1.76 ERA) gets the call for the Dodgers, while the home side counters with Anibal Sanchez (6-6, 3.80.) The Nationals come in off an 8-7 loss to the Rockies on Thursday, but it was just its fourth setback in its last 17 home games. Ryu though has dominated the Nats throughout his career, going 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP in four career starts vs. them. Sanchez though has been equally as hot of late, going 6-0 with a 2.70 ERA over his last nine starts. While just 1-3 vs. the Dodgers, note that Sanchez does own a very respectable 3.69 ERA in eight career match ups vs. LA. Key Trends: - LA has seen the total dip under in 12 of 18 already this season when the total is set between 9 and 9.5. - Washington has seen the total go under the number in 15 of 23 this year when the total is set between 9 and 9.5. The verdict: Ryu comes in on fire across the board as he is 2-0 over his last three starts, giving up one run off our hits over seven innings in a 2-1 win over Miami on Friday. As mentioned off the top, I expect these red hot hurlers to battle deep and as such, I look for this total to stay well below the posted number! |
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07-26-19 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | 9-2 | Loss | -114 | 28 h 59 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Braves/Phillies. Two teams which have no issues plating runs go head-to-head on Friday night, but I believe it’ll be the starting pitchers who become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. The Braves go with rookie phenom Mike Soroka (10-2, 2.46 ERA), while the home side counters with veteran Jake Arrieta (8-7, 4.40). Arrieta has allowed just two earned runs over his last 11 innings of work. Key Trends: - Atlanta has seen the total go under the number in 14 of 21 this year on the road with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. - Philadelphia has seen the total go under in 16 of 24 this year after two or more straight victories. The verdict: Playoff positioning aside, I believe all signs point to a classic “duel” between these two hungry teams on Friday night. Play the under! |
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07-25-19 | Rangers v. A's -177 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -177 | 32 h 47 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS on the Oakland A’s. I don’t normally attach a 10* rating to a pick with a line of this size, but in this case I absolutely believe that the talent mismatch on the mound justifies the wager. Ariel Jurado (5-6, 4.92) toes the slab for the visitors and he enters off an outing to forget, getting rocked for five runs off eight hits with a walk over five innings in a loss to the Astros. Note that Jurado has been particularly ineffective in all “night” games by going just 3-3 with a ballooned 5.77 ERA. Brett Anderson (9-5, 3.82) gets the nod for the home side and he’s been at his best in all “night” contests this year, going 7-2 with a 2.69 ERA. Key Trends: - Texas is just 3-8 in its last 11 American League night road games as an underdog in the +150 to +175 range. - Oakland is 9-4 in its last 13 home games as a favorite in the -165 to -185 range. The verdict: I believe Jurado’s issues continue in this difficult road venue; lay the price with confidence! |
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07-25-19 | Indians -144 v. Royals | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* CA$H-BOMB on Cleveland Indians. No need to overthink this one. I absolutely feel that Adam Plutko (3-2, 4.81 ERA) and the hard-hitting visiting side are well worth the price of admission in this particular contest. Plutko comes in off a loss despite allowing just one run off two hits while striking out four over seven innings in a setback to these very Royals on Saturday. The home side counters with the erratic Mike Montgomery (1-3, 6.83) who was shelled for five runs off six hits while striking out one over two innings in a loss to these very Indians last Friday. Key Trends: - Cleveland is 7-2 in Plutko’s last nine American League road games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -150 range. - The Royals are just 2-5 in their last seven home games as an underdog in the +135 to +165 range. The verdict: I’m expecting Montgomery to get the hook early and I look for Plutko to build off his last strong effort vs. KC last week; lay the price! |
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07-25-19 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* BIG TIGER on the under Cards/Pirates. A couple competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one, with Miles Mikolas (6-10, 4.17 ERA) getting the nod for the visitors and Joe Musgrove (7-8, 4.08) toeing the slab for the home side. Mikolas comes in off a decent start vs. the Reds on Saturday, but still took the loss despite allowing three runs over six frames, while also striking out four. Overall Mikolas owns a respectable 82:19 K:BB over 114.1 innings of work this year. Musgrove also enter off a strong start, giving up one run with two walks and eight K’s over six innings in a win over Philadelphia on Saturday. Key Trends: - Note that St. Louis has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 23 National League day road games in which the total is set at either 9 or 9.5. - Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 11 at home when the money line in the contest is set between -135 and +135. The verdict: Both Mikolas and Musgrove come in off strong performances and neither will be lacking for motivation here after a poor first half. When you add it all up, this number is a high in my opinion; play the under! |
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07-24-19 | Angels v. Dodgers -180 | 3-2 | Loss | -180 | 31 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Dodgers. No need to overthink this one, as I believe the massive talent discrepancy on the mound this evening absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jaime Barria (3-3, 7.36 ERA), while the home side counters with Ross Stripling (4-3, 3.64). Barria most recently was shelled for ten runs off nine hits with four walks over three innings in a 10-0 loss to the Mariners. Stripling is just 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in five starts since re-joining the rotation in late June, but note that he’s been at his best at home by going 2-1 with a 3.11 ERA thus far. Key Trends: - The Angels are just 12-17 as a road dog this year. - The Dodgers are 36-10 as a home favorite of -150 or higher. The verdict: All things considered, I think this line could/should in fact be much larger; play on the Dodgers! |
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07-24-19 | Marlins v. White Sox +105 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago White Sox. Miami evened this series with a 5-1 win on Tuesday, but I think that the home side will bounce back in the finale. The Marlins go with rookie right-hander Zac Gallen (0-2, 3.63 ERA), while the Chi-Sox see Reynaldo Lopez (5-8, 5.76 ERA) toe the slab. Gallen’s been decent, but the sample size is still too small in my opinion (note that this will be Gallen’s first interleague start of his career.) Lopez has “turned the corner” in the second half with back-to-back quality starts since the break, including a 9-2 win over Tampa Bay, allowing two runs over seven innings. Key Trends: - Miami is still only 5-10 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range this year. - Chicago is 14-5 (+7.8 units) this season as a home favorite. The verdict: I believe Lopez continues his progression and as mentioned off the top, I’m expecting Gallen to take a step back in this interleague road contest; play on the Sox! |
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07-24-19 | Royals v. Braves -192 | 2-0 | Loss | -192 | 28 h 5 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. I have no problems laying this larger price on Julio Teheran (5-6, 3.61 ERA) and the hard-hitting home side. The Royals counter with Brad Keller (6-9, 4.18). The Braves definitely won’t be taking anything for granted here either after they let the Royals win the series opener 5-4 on Tuesay, with KC rallying with three runs in the eighth. Keller comes in off a decent out, but note that he’s just 1-2 with a 4.75 ERA in vs. the NL. Teheran enters on top form though, having walked only three batters in 17 2/3’s innings while posting a 1.53 ERA this month. Key Trends: - The Royals are just 2-7 in their last nine after a one run victory. - Atlanta is 8-3 in its last 11 interleague home games after allowing five or more runs in a loss in its previous outing. The verdict: I like Teheran to carry over his recent momentum and for the Braves for respond after last night’s “brain fart.” Lay the price with confidence! |
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07-24-19 | Padres v. Mets -148 | 7-2 | Loss | -148 | 28 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets. The Mets will look to take advantage of this clear mismatch on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Dinelson Lamet (0-2, 5.14 ERA), while the home side counters with the steady Noah Syndergaard (7-4, 4.36). Lamet has struck out 19 over his first three starts back from Tommy John surgery, but he’s also walked six in 14 innings. Key Trends: - San Diego is a poor 20-32 this season vs. teams with losing records. - New York is still 10-4 in its last 14 at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: Both teams are now essentially out of the playoff race, but I like Syndergaard to buckle down at home here and to get the better of his erratic counterpart; lay the price with confidence! |
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07-24-19 | Rangers -118 v. Mariners | 3-5 | Loss | -118 | 24 h 26 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Texas Rangers. I think Mike Minor (8-5, 2.86 ERA) and the Rangers will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night vs. Mike Leake (8-8, 4.27) and the Mariners. Both pitchers have been decent this year and each is rumoured to be on the move by the trade deadline. Minor’s already defeated Leake and the M’s twice this season though, while Leake is just 1-3 with a 4.90 ERA in eight lifetime starts vs. the Rangers. Key Trends: - Texas is a perfect 6-0 this year on the road with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. - Seattle is just 5-9 this year as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: Both teams are out of the playoff picture, but Minor is the “correct” call in this matchup in my opinion; lay the short price! |
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07-24-19 | Orioles v. Diamondbacks -131 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. John Means (8-5, 2.95 ERA) has been a bright spot for Baltimore this year. However, I think the rookie will predictably struggle in this difficult interleague road venue. Taylor Clarke (2-3, 6.50) who looked a bit shaky in his first start back from the IL on Friday vs. the Brewers, allowing four runs over four innings. Clarke though has a big opportunity to get back on track here facing the inept Orioles and I believe the rookie will make the most of it. Key Trends: - Note that Baltimore is just 19-43 vs. right-handed starters this year. - Note that Arizona is 12-4 in inter-league contests this year. The verdict: I think that Means takes a major step back here vs. the desperate D-Backs; lay the short price! |
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07-23-19 | Phillies -150 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 42 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as I believe the talent discrepancy on the mound today absolutely justifies in laying this road price. Aaron Nola (8-2, 3.77 ERA) toes the rubber for the visitors, while the home side goes with Matt Boyd (6-8, 4.13). Nola comes in off an outing to forget against the Dodgers, but he’s 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA in two career starts vs. Detroit. The Phillies continue to fight for a playoff spot as they come in having won five of their last eight. Boyd has allowed between three and five earned runs in his last eight starts and his ERA has gone from 2.85 to 4.13 in the process. Key Trends: - Philadelphia is 12-6 this year as a road favorite in the -100 to -150 range. - Detroit is just 1-14 this year as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: Boyd’s likely on his way out of Detroit after this game and I think his “head” won’t be “in the game” tonight. And that definitely leaves the door open for Nola, who is out to atone for his latest poor effort. All things considered, a very fair price; lay it! |
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07-23-19 | Padres v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the over Padres/Mets. These teams are a combined 14 games below .500. Neither has given up, meaning this is a very important series. Each had yesterday off. I believe the situation points to a higher-scoring affair between two clubs who often struggle at the plate. The visitors go with Chris Paddack (6-4, 2.70 ERA) to toe the slab, while the Mets go with Jason Vargas (4-5, 4.25.) Key Trends: - San Diego has seen the total go over the number in nine of 13 this year as a road favorite. - New York has seen the total go over in nine of 11 this year when playing with a day off. The verdict: As mentioned off the top, I think this one sets up as a “slug-fest.” Play the over! |
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07-22-19 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 10 | 3-7 | Push | 0 | 31 h 53 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Rangers/Mariners. The Rangers have lost seven in a row after Sunday’s 5-3 defeat at Houston. The Mariners have lost ten of their last 11 and have been out of the playoff picture for a long time. Two teams with more questions than answers collide on Monday night and in my opinion, I think runs will be at a premium. Adrian Sampson (6-6, 4.92 ERA) toes the slab for the Rangers and he’s 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four career appearances vs. the Mariners. The home side counters with Marco Gonzales (10-8, 4.48), who is 4-3 with a 3.35 ERA in eight career starts vs. Texas. Key Trends: - Texas has seen the total go under the number in 28 of 35 already this year vs. clubs with losing records. - Seattle has seen the total go under the number in six of its last eight vs. clubs with winning records. The verdict: I think these starters “battle deep.” This number is a little high, play the under! |
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07-22-19 | Orioles v. Diamondbacks -220 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 30 h 23 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. I think that Robbie Ray (8-6, 3.92 ERA) and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this spot, with the “toothless” Orioles countering with the erratic Aaron Brooks (2-3, 4.69). Ray enters on top form, having won three straight, conceding a combined six runs over 19 innings of work (eight walks and 23 K’s in that span.) Brooks has been used primarily as an “opener” and I think he’ll be on a “short leash” in this difficult National League format/venue tonight as well. Key Trends: - The Orioles are a poor 13-25 this year as a road dog of +150 or higher. - The D-Backs are 11-4 (+8.2 units) in interleague games this year. The verdict: Ray is reportedly on the trading block, so look for the veteran to keep his focus on the field of play tonight; lay the price! |
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07-22-19 | Yankees v. Twins UNDER 11 | 6-8 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 53 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Yankees/Twins. It’s a battle of division leaders in Minnesota on Monday night and while both teams are known for their offensive prowess, I believe that the starting pitchers will be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. New York sees CC Sabathia (5-4, 4.06 ERA) toe the slab, while the home side counters with Martin Perez (8-3, 4.10). Sabathia is 20-9 with a 3.09 ERA in 39 career starts vs. the Twins. Perez has had issues with the Yanks over the years, but he’s been at his best at home this season, going 4-2 with a 3.19 ERA. Key Trends: - New York has seen the total go under the number in ten of 14 so far in the second half of the season. - Minnesota has seen the total go under in six of nine as a home underdog this year. The verdict: Note that Sabathia is also 12-1 in his last 16 starts vs. the Twins. |
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07-22-19 | A's v. Astros UNDER 9 | 1-11 | Loss | -125 | 29 h 53 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under A’s/Astros. Homer Bailey (1-0, 3.00 ERA for the A’s) beat the Mariners 10-2 in his Oakland debut and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here. Bailey would go on to give up two runs over six innings, walking none and striking out six. The home side counters with Gerrit Cole (10-5, 3.12), who has conceded more than one run just once in his last six starts. Key Trends: - Oakland has seen the total go under the number in 16 of 26 this year as a road dog. - Houston has seen the total go under the number in 23 of 34 this year when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5. The verdict: Additionally note that Bailey is 3-0 with a minuscule 1.46 ERA in eight career starts vs. Houston, while Cole is 3-1 with a 3.30 ERA in seven career starts vs. the A’s. This one has “duel” written all over it; play the under! |
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07-22-19 | Indians -160 v. Blue Jays | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 50 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland’s been the hottest team in the entire league since early June and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas here in this favorable matchup. Toronto returns home dejected after going 4-6 on a road trip, including losing 4-3 in ten innings to the Tigers yesterday afternoon. The visitors see Mike Clevinger (3-2, 3.57 ERA) toe the slab, while the home side counters with Ryan Borucki (making his season debut.) Clevinger enters off his best start of the year, giving up on run over six innings while also striking out 12 in a win over the Tigers on Wednesday. Key Trends: - Cleveland is 21-10 (+8 units) this year vs. southpaws. - Toronto is just 22-42 (-19.2 units) vs. right-handed starters. The verdict: Clevinger is also 2-0 with a minuscule 1.06 ERA over his last three starts overall and 2-1 with a 3.56 ERA in four career appearances vs. Toronto. Borucki was 4-6 with a 3.87 ERA in 17 starts last year as a rookie. This one has “blowout” written all over it; lay it! |
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07-21-19 | A's v. Twins UNDER 11 | 6-7 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under A’s/Twins. I’m expecting a “duel” between these two hungry American League clubs on Sunday afternoon. Michael Pineda (6-5, 4.38 ERA) goes for Minnesota, while Daniel Mengden (5-1, 4.21) gets the nod for the visitors. Pineda has conceded more than three runs in a games just once in his last 12 starts and he’s 4-1 with a tiny 2.75 ERA in six career starts vs. Oakland. Mengden comes in having won four straight. Key Trends: - Oakland has already seen the total go under the number in 23 of 35 this year vs. teams with winning records. - Minnesota has seen the total go under in nine of 12 home games already this year with a total of either 10 to 10.5. The verdict: Look for these two competent hurlers to battle deep into this one, and play the under! |
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07-21-19 | White Sox v. Rays -235 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Tampa Bay Rays. No upsets here today as I expect Rays ace Blake Snell (5-7, 4.55 ERA) to get the better of his younger counterpart today. Tampa lost 2-1 in 11 innings yesterday, but I expect the home side to respond here. Snell had a 9.64 ERA in June, but so far in July he’s allowed two earned runs over ten innings, both starts coming against the high-powered Yankees. The White Sox go with Dylan Cease (1-1, 5.73), who makes his third major league starts of his career, most recently getting rocked for six runs over six innings in a loss to the Royals. Key Trends: - Chicago is a terrible 16-28 (-8.1 units) this season in all “day” games. - Tampa is 18-9 this season as a home favorite of -150 or higher. The verdict: After yesterday’s loss, look for Tampa to take advantage of this favorable matchup; lay the price with confidence! |
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07-21-19 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 11 | 4-5 | Win | 105 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Royals/Indians. After scoring 43 runs over six games, the Tribe were held to just three hits in their last outing, a 1-0 Royals victory on Saturday. I think we’ll see a few more runs than that today, but all signs once again point to a lower-scoring “duel” in the finale of this three game set in my opinion. Kansas City goes with Glenn Sparkman (3-5, 4.54 ERA) who comes in off his best start of his career, scattering five hits and striking out eight in his first career shutout vs. the White Sox on Tuesday. The home side sees Zach Plesac (3-3, 3.56) toe the slab, who also comes in off a strong outing vs. Detroit in his last start, allowing no runs or hits over a rain-shortened three innings of work. Key Trends: - KC has seen the total go under in eight of its last 12 as a road dog in the +150 to +200 range. - Cleveland has seen the total go under in 22 of its last 37 “day” games. The verdict: In my opinion, the overall situation combined with the above strong O/U trends exhibited by each side, do indeed point to the under as the correct call in this one! |
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07-20-19 | Marlins v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 31 h 11 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the over Marlins/Dodgers. LA Dodgers’ starter Clayton Kershaw (8-2, 3.00 ERA) is enjoying another solid year, but he’s just 5-5 vs. Miami in 11 career match ups. LA won’t be taking anything for granted here either in my opinion after it’s lacklustre 2-1 victory last night. And that’s bade news for Marlins’ starter Sandy Alcantara (4-9, 3.94), who has lost three straight and posted a ballooned 6.11 ERA (Alcantara was most recently shelled for four runs off nine hits over six innings in a loss to the Mets.) Key Trends: - Miami has seen the total go over the number in 9 of its last 14 after allowing three runs or less in three straight games. - LA has seen the total soar over in 20 of its last 32 as a home favorite of -150 or higher. The verdict: The situation and the numbers point to a “slug-fest” in my opinion; play the over! |
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07-20-19 | BC +4 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 25-38 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 50 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on BC. I got down early and unfortunately have a bit of an unfavorable line and while I will in fact recommend grabbing as many points as you can, I am expecting the visiting side to win this one outright. Both teams only have one victory so far this year. The Riders’ lost their starting QB in Game 1 and have replaced with Cody Fajardo, who has 945 yards, four TD’s and two INT’s on the year. BC went out and signed the biggest FA in the off-season and so far QB Mike Reilly has 1,256 passing yards with five TD’s and five INT’s. BC won’t be lacking for motivation here either after having lost three straight in this series. The Riders though are coming off their bye week and I do definitely believe that rest is going to lead to rust. Key Trends: - BC 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the +2 to +9.5 points range. - Saskatchewan is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the +3.5 to +7.5 points range. The verdict: The good thing for CFL teams that struggle early in the season, is that the campaign is 18 games, instead of 16 like the NFL. Reilly and the Lions still have ample time to turn things around and go on a run and I believe that begins this weekend. Expect the hungry visiting side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night! |
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07-20-19 | Padres v. Cubs -128 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. The Padres have lost six of their last seven and I believe the slide continues on Saturday afternoon. The Cubs are now trending in the other direction, having gone 6-1 since the Mid-Summer Classic. The visitors go with Joey Lucchesi (7-4, 3.92 ERA), while the home side sees Jose Quintana (7-7, 4.21) toe the rubber. Lucchesi has made one start vs. the Cubs, giving up three runs off seven hits over five innings. Quintana is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two lifetime starts vs. the Friars. Key Trends: - San Diego is just 7-10 vs. southpaws this season. - Chicago has struggled vs. lefties as well this year (just 7-10), but it’s a sharp 20-6 (+11 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: San Diego has committed nine errors over its last five games and I believe its slide back into mediocrity continues in the sweltering afternoon Chicago heat; lay the short price! |
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07-19-19 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 31 h 45 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Mets/Giants. A couple of pitchers who I expect to start and go deep go head to head in this one on Friday night and I think runs will be at a premium. The visitors see Jacob deGrom (5-7, 3.21 ERA) toe the slab, while the home side goes with Tyler Beede (3-3, 5.44). deGrom enters off a gem, allowing one run off six hits with three walks over five innings vs. Miami on Sunday. Overall the Mets’ ace has a stellar 144:28 K:BB this year (note that he’s 4-3 with a 2.80 ERA on the road this season.) Beede enters off a strong outing as well, allowing three runs while striking out seven over seven innings vs. the Brewers on Sunday. Overall Beede is 2-0 in July, striking out 11 and allowing four runs over 14 frames of work. The verdict: I’m expecting these starters to continue their recent form and as such, everything points to the under as the correct call in this one! |
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07-19-19 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 40 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Rangers/Astros. Two All Stars square off on the mound Friday night and in my opinion, runs will definitely be at a premium. Mike Minor (8-4, 2.73 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while the home side counters with Justin Verlander (11-4, 2.98). Minor took a no-decision vs. the Astros last weekend, allowing four runs off seven hits with seven K’s over five innings. Note though that Minor is 7-3 with a 2.47 ERA in all night games this year. Verlander started the second half with another victory, giving up two runs and one walk with seven K’s over six innings vs. these very Rangers last Sunday. Note that Verlander is 7-3 with a 2.81 ERA in all “night” contests this season. Key Trends: - Texas has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 13 road games as an underdog in the +175 to +225 range. - Houston has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 15 home games in which Verlander is throwing and in which the total is either at 8 or 8.5. The verdict: With these two battling deep into the latter frames, all signs point to the under as the correct call here! |
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07-19-19 | A's v. Twins -128 | 5-3 | Loss | -128 | 29 h 40 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins. I think that Jake Odorizzi and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this spot. The visitors go with Chris Bassitt (6-4, 3.98 ERA) who comes in off a gem, going six scoreless vs. the White Sox on Saturday. For the most part Bassitt’s been as solid as Oakland could have possibly asked for this season, but note that if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his play on the road where he’s just 2-2 with a subpar 4.73 ERA. Odorizzi (11-4, 3.06) enters off a gem vs. the Indians on Saturday, giving up one run over six innings in the eventual victory. Key Trends: - Oakland is just 2-7 in its last nine American League night road games in which it’s an underdog in the +115 to +150 range. - Minnesota is 8-3 in its last 11 as a favorite in the -115 to -135 range. The verdict: Note that Odorizzi has been at his best at home as well this year, going 6-0 with a 2.27 ERA. Lay the price and expect a rout! |
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07-19-19 | Blue Jays -145 v. Tigers | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. Two teams which won’t be in the playoffs collide on Friday night, but I think that Marcus Stroman and the Jays are worth the price of admission. Stroman (5-10, 3.25 ERA) enters off a strong start, giving up three runs while striking out seven over six innings vs. the Yankees on Sunday (note that Stroman’s been at his best on the road this year as well with a 2.94 ERA away from friendly confines thus far.) Detroit sees Jordan Zimmermann (0-6, 7.01) toe the slab and he most recently was shelled for seven runs off eight hits over four innings vs. the Royals on Sunday. Over his last two starts Zimmermann has allowed 14 earned runs spanning 7.1 innings of work. Key Trends: - Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine American League road games as a favorite in the -135 to -155 range. - Detroit is just 2-6 in its last eight home games as an underdog in the +135 to +155 range. The verdict: Stroman is still being shopped around and I expect him to keep his level of performance high; lay the price! |
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07-19-19 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 28 h 36 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the over Red Sox/Orioles. Two decent hurlers go head-to-head in this one, but I believe that runs will still be plentiful on Friday night. The visitors hand the ball to David Price (7-2, 3.16 ERA), while the home side counters with John Means (7-5, 2.94). Price has unquestionably been the most consistent starter in Boston’s rotation this year, but he most recently gave up four runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Sunday. Means enters off a poor start as well, allowing six runs off eight hits over six frames in a loss to the Rays last weekend. Key Trends: - Boston has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 American League road games as a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. - Baltimore has seen the total go over in eight of its last nine at home with a money line in the -175 to +175 range. The verdict: Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that further regression in imminent in my opinion. Coupled with the above trends/numbers/stats and all signs do indeed point to the over as the correct call in this one! |
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07-18-19 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 32 h 39 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the UNDER Brewers/D-Backs. Considering the talent on the mound tonight, I think this total is a little high. The visitors go with Zach Davies (7-2, 2.89 ERA), while the home side counters with Merrill Kelly (7-9, 3.93). Davies most recently allowed one run with five K’s over six innings in a win over the Giants on Saturday. Over 102 innings Davies now has a 2.89 ERA and 68:32 K:BB. Kelly gave up four runs (only one earned) while striking out five over five innings in a loss to the D-Backs on Saturday, undone by his defense. Overall Kelly has an 86:31 K:BB over 110 frames of work. Key Trends: - Milwaukee has seen the total go under the number eight of its last 12 National League night road games in which the line is set between -125 and +125. - Arizona has seen the total go under the total in seven of its last nine home games as a favorite in the -105 to -125 range. The verdict: I expect these two starters to fight deep into the latter frames and as such, all signs doing indeed point to the under as the correct call in this one! |
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07-18-19 | A's v. Twins -135 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins. The A’s Mike Fiers is 9-3 with a 3.61 ERA and he’s been a big reason why his team is doing so well right now. The Twins’ Kyle Gibson is 8-4 with a 4.03 ERA and he’s been a crucial part of his team’s success over the first half. In this particular matchup, i don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. Gibson gave up three runs over four innings in a no-decision in his last start vs. the Tribe. Overall though Gibson has been at his best at home this year by going 5-1 with a 3.69 ERA. Fiers went seven scoreless in a victory over the White Sox in his last start. Note that if Fiers has had one clear weakness this year, it’s been his play on the road where he’s a sub-par 3-4 with a 4.83 ERA. Key Trends: - Oakland is just 4-6 in its last ten American League night road games in which it’s an underdog in the +115 to +135 range. - Minnesota is 7-2 in Gibson’s last nine home games as a favorite in the -125 to -150 range. The verdict: Look for Minnesota to ride Gibson to a solid win and lay this very reasonable price! |
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07-18-19 | Rays v. Yankees -114 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Yankees. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors go with Charlie Morton (11-2, 2.35 ERA), while the home side counters with JA Happ (7-5, 4.93). Morton gave up two runs over six innings in a win over the Orioles in his last start. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Morton, as he’s been superb this year. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time. Happ took a loss in Toronto in his last start despite allowing just two runs with five K’s over six innings on Saturday. Key Trends: - Tampa is just 2-7 in its last nine American League night road games in which it’s an underdog in the +105 to +135 range. - New York is 17-10 in its last 27 American League home night games in which it’s a favorite in the -105 to -120 range. The verdict: Note that Happ has posted a tiny 1.93 ERA vs. the Rays over the last two seasons. Look for Happ to continue his dominance in this series and for the hard-hitting home side to take advantage; lay the price! |
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07-18-19 | Cardinals v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Cards/Reds. I think these starters are going to fight each other deep into the latter innings and because of that, I’ll recommend making a play on the “under” in this one. St. Louis goes with Daniel Hudson (8-4, 3.48 ERA) who struck out five and picked up a victory in Saturday’s 4-2 win over Arizona on Saturday, giving up two runs off three hits with four walks over six innings. The home side counters with Tanner Roark (5-6, 3.99), who is looking to bounce back after allowing seven runs over 4.2 innings in a loss to Colorado. Despite a 1-5 record at home, Roark owns a very respectable 3.18 ERA in such instances though. Key Trends: - Note that St. Louis has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 12 night National League road games in which it’s an underdog in the +105 to +135 range. - Note that Cincinnati has seen the total dip under in five of its last seven home games as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: As stated off the top, I’m expecting the starters to throw into the latter frames; play the under! |
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07-18-19 | Tigers v. Indians -200 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Cleveland Indians. No upsets here as I expect the hard-hitting home side to take advantage of the toothless visiting side. The visitors go with Matt Boyd (6-7, 3.95 ERA), while the Indians counter with Trevor Bauer (8-7, 3.65). Boyd comes in off a strong outing vs. the Royals on Saturday, allowing four runs over seven innings, but the hard-throwing right-hander still took the loss. Note that Boyd’s been much better at home (3.36 ERA) than on the road (4.83). Bauer took a loss in his last start as well despite striking out 11 and giving up three runs over six innings vs. the Twins on Saturday. Note that Bauer has been at his best at home with a 3-2, 3.16 ERA thus far. Key Trends: - Detroit is just 2-8 in its last eight road games as an underdog in the +175 to +250 range. - Cleveland is 9-3 in its last 12 American League night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -200 to -250 range. The verdict: I think Bauer is well worth the price of admission in this match-up; lay it! |
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07-18-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Dodgers/Phillies. Two competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one, with Ross Stripling (4-3, 3.65 ERA) getting the nod for the visitors and Aaron Nola (8-2, 3.63) toeing the slab for the home side. I think that runs are going to be at a premium in this one as I expect these two starters to battle deep. Striping most recently allowed one run off four hits over five innings while striking out seven and walking no one in a victory over the hard-hitting Red Sox on Saturday. Nola comes in off a strong outing as well, allowing one run off five hits with nine K’s over six innings in what turned out to be a no-decision to the Nationals on Saturday. Key Trends: - LA has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last 11 National League day road games in which it’s an underdog in the +100 to +135 range. - Philadelphia has seen the total dip under the number in eight of 12 home games as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: Recent form displayed by these starters points to this total falling below the posted number; play the under! |
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07-17-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies UNDER 10.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 31 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Dodgers/Phillies. Two capable hurlers collide in this National League contest on Wednesday night and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. Kenta Maeda (7-6, 3.82 ERA) took an unfortunate loss in Boston last Friday, allowing three runs while striking out seven over six frames. Nick Pivetta (4-4, 5.81) who gave up three runs over five innings in in a loss vs. Washington on Friday. Key Trends: - Note though that Philadelphia has seen the total go under in seven of its last ten National League home games in which the total in the contest is set at either 10 or 10.5. - Also note that LA has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 road night games as a favorite in the -105 to -150 range. The verdict: Look for these two hungry starters to battle deep and play the under! |
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07-17-19 | Giants v. Rockies -170 | 11-8 | Loss | -170 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Colorado Rockies. I think the Rockies at this price at home with the superior starter on the hill are well worth the admission. The visitors turn to Shaun Anderson (3-2, 4.48 ERA) who has looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. Note that Anderson has a 4.81 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Jon Gray (9-6, 3.83) who gave up two runs off four hits over seven innings in a no-decision to the Reds on Friday. Overall Gray has a 121:42 K:BB and he’s been at his best at home, going 4-1 with a 3.24 ERA. Key Trends: - The Giants are just 8-12 in their last 20 road games as an underdog in the +150 to +165 range. - The Rockies 7-2 in their last nine games at home with Gray on the mound and with a money line in the -165 to -185 range. The verdict: Look for Anderson to take a step back in this difficult road venue and for the veteran Gray to continue his consistent run at Coors this year; lay the short price! |
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07-17-19 | Reds v. Cubs -130 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. I think the home side will find a way to get the job done in this one once it’s all said and done. The visitors turn to Sonny Gray (5-5, 3.42 ERA), who gave up one run off five hits and three walks in a no-decision to the Rockies on Friday. Gray has been decent overall, but if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his play in all “day” games this year, going just 1-4 with a 4.55 ERA in such instances. Yu Darvish (2-4, 4.72) comes in off his best start in over a calendar year, going six shutout innings, allowing two hits, one walk and eight K’s in an unfortunate no-decision to the Pirates in his last outing. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is just 4-7 in its last 11 National League “day” games as an underdog in the +125 to +150 range. - The Cubs are 7-2 in their last nine home games as a favorite in the -125 to -145 range. The verdict: I like Darvish to continue his recent progression and I expect Gray to take a step back in this “day” game; lay the short price! |
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07-17-19 | Braves v. Brewers UNDER 10 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Braves/Brewers. Two capable pitchers go head to head in this National League contest on Wednesday afternoon and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The Braves go with Dallas Keuchel (3-2, 3.09 ERA), while the home side goes with Chase Anderson (4-2, 4.27). Anderson has a 72:23 K:BB over 71.2 innings of work this year and he’s 1-0 with a 3.68 ERA in all “day” games. Keuchel gave up one run off six hits with four walks over seven innings in a win over the Padres in his last outing. Key Trends: - The Braves have seen the total go under the number in seven of their last 11 road games as an underdog in the +105 to +135 range. - The Brewers have seen the total go under in ten of their last 16 home day games with a money line in the +125 to -125 range. The verdict: Once again I’m expecting the starting pitchers to throw deep and as such, look for this one to stay well below the posted number! |
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07-17-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Pirates/Cardinals. Two pitchers who won’t be lacking for motivation collide in this one Wednesday afternoon and I think that runs will be at a premium. Chris Archer (3-6, 5.42 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors, while the home side counters with Daniel Ponce de Leon (0-0, 1.99). Archer gave up three runs off three hits with two walks and ten K’s over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Cubs last time out. de Leon comes in off a strong start too, giving up one run off three hits over seven innings. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh has seen the total dip under in seven of its last 11 road “day” games. - St. Louis has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 12 day home games in which it’s a favorite in the -135 to -155 range. The verdict: I expect these starters to battle deep into the latter frames and as such, look for this total to stay under once it’s all said and done! |
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07-16-19 | Mariners +160 v. A's | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 20 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Seattle Mariners. I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the underdog in this one. Oakland looks poised for a classic letdown after sweeping the White Sox over the weekend. The Mariners’ Marco Gonzales (10-7, 4.24 ERA) is 4-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three starts vs. the A’s this year and he’s 4-1 with a 3.12 ERA in seven career appearances vs. them. Overall Gonzales is 5-1 with a 2.89 ERA over his last six starts as well. A’s starter Daniel Mengden (4-1, 4.73 ERA) is 1-2 with a 5.20 ERA in six career appearances vs. the M’s. Key Trends: - Seattle is already 3-1 (+2.4 units) this year after being swept on the road in a three game series by a division rival. - Oakland is a poor 9-14 (-6.7 units) this season after a win by two runs or less. The verdict: I think Gonzales has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one considering his recent form. Play on Seattle! |
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07-16-19 | Giants v. Rockies UNDER 14 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the under Giants/Rockies. After yesterday’s 19-2 “slug-fest” win for San Francisco, the Giants followed it up with a 2-1 win in the second game of the double-header last night. I believe the finale tonight will follow more of Game 2’s “suit.” Peter Lambert (2-1, 6.67 ERA) gets the call for Rockies, while the Giants counter with Drew Pomeranz (2-9, 6.42). Pomeranz has to be feeling confident he can produce a decent start here, as he’s 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA in six career games vs. Colorado. Key Trends: - San Francisco has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four on the road when the total is 12 or higher. - Colorado has seen the total go under in 16 of its last 26 with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: A couple of high ERA pitchers here, but the numbers and the overall “situation” point to more of a “duel” in my opinion. This number is a tad high, play the under! |
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07-15-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals -127 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. Both Joe Musgrove (6-7, 4.15 ERA) of the Pirates and Miles Mikolas (5-9, 4.53) of the Cardinals have enjoyed incredible success in their careers, but so far 2019 has not been one of those campaigns for either beleaguer hurler. These starters are a “wash” today. Neither has any momentum. The Pirates have no momentum either after getting swept in Chicago over the weekend. I think the difference comes in the stats/numbers/trends. Key Trends: - As note that Pittsburgh is just 18-27 as a road dog this year. - Also note that St. Louis is 14-7 at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: I like St. Louis to take advantage of home field; lay the short price! |
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07-15-19 | Braves v. Brewers UNDER 10.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Braves/Brewers. I think these starters will battle into the deep innings and as such, I look for this total to sneak below this sky-high number. Max Fried (9-4, 4.29 ERA) gets the call for the Braves, while the Brewers turn to Adrian Houser (2-3, 4.01). Fried is 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA lifetime vs. the Brewers, but he’ll be eager to get back on track after scuffling down the stretch of the first half. Houser also struggled in his last couple of starts before the break, but overall he’s been solid this season (note that he’s faced the Braves once in relief and he’d allow three hits over three innings.) Key Trends: - The Braves have seen the total go under the number in 13 of 20 this year on the road when the money line is in the -100 to -150 range. - The Brewers have seen the total go under in 16 of 25 vs. southpaws already this season. The verdict: Additionally note that Brewers’ slugger Ryan Braun won’t be in the line-up tonight as he attends the funeral of Tyler Skaggs. This number is a little high, play the under! |
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07-15-19 | Reds v. Cubs -120 | 6-3 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 4 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. I played on the Cubs in their three-game series sweep of the Pirates in every contest and I believe that the home side keeps the good times rolling here. Cincinnati goes with ace Luis Castillo (8-3, 2.29 ERA), while the visitors counter with Kyle Hendricks (7-7, 3.49). Hendricks is 6-2 with a 3.31 ERA in 15 career starts vs. the Reds. Castillo is 3-2 with a 3.35 ERA in eight career starts vs. Chicago. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is a poor 10-20 this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - Chicago is a great 18-5 (+10.4 units) this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: Additionally note that Hendricks is a “lights out” 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his last three meetings vs. the Reds. Chicago won’t be taking anything for granted here after losing six of nine in the season series to this point. All things considered, a great price on a hot team; lay it! |
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07-15-19 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -184 | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Boston Red Sox. This is a big game and a big series for Boston, which plays its next 21 games vs. AL East foes. The home side sends Rick Porcello (6-7, 5.33 ERA) to toe the slab, while the visitors go with Trent Thornton (3-6, 4.85). Both starters have struggled against their respective opponent, so I’m calling them a “wash.” The difference comes in the numbers/stats/trends. Key Trends: - As note that Toronto is just 6-18 (-6.7 units) this year as a road dog of +150 or more. - Additionally note that Boston is 31-15 vs. clubs with losing records this season. The verdict: Toronto’s offense has been terrible of late, as it was held to two runs or fewer for the fifth tim in its last six games in yesterday’s 4-2 loss in New York. Look for the Red Sox to get their big home stand started off on the “right foot!” |
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07-15-19 | Tigers v. Indians -161 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland has won seven of its last ten and I look for it to keep the good times rolling here vs. the lowly Tigers. Detroit hands the ball to Daniel Norris (2-8, 4.96 ERA) who gave up six runs to the Tribe back on June 23rd and who owns a 4.37 ERA vs. them in nine career appearances. Norris most recently was rocked for six runs vs. the White Sox on July 3rd to fall to 0-6 during a brutal ten-start winless streak. The home side counters with Adam Plutko (3-1, 4.95) who enters off a poor start vs. the Orioles, allowing five runs over five innings, but who is a sharp 2-0 with a 3.94 ERA in five career appearances vs. Detroit. Key Trends: - Detroit is just 12-33 (-15.2 units) this year in all “night” games. - Cleveland is 16-8 as a home favorite of -150 or higher this season. The verdict: Look for Plutko to easily get the better of his volatile counterpart as Cleveland continues its torrid streak at home; lay the price! |
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07-15-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | 16-2 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 5 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Dodgers/Phillies. Zach Eflin (7-8, 3.78 ERA) squares off against the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw (7-2, 3.09). Both teams enter off Sunday victories. Eflin was rocked in his final start before the break, but overall he’s been solid this year. With the extra time off, there’s no reason not to think that he can’t match Kershaw inning for inning. Kershaw has a 2.84 ERA in 14 career regular season starts vs. the Phillies. Key Trends: - LA has seen the total go under the number in eight of 12 already this year on the road when the total is set between 9 and 9.5. - Philadelphia has seen the total go under in ten of its last 15 following a win by two runs or less. The verdict: This one has “duel” written all over it in my opinion; play the under! |
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07-15-19 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 9 | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 27 h 5 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Rays/Yankees. New York leads the season series 9-4, but Tampa took two of three in a series right before the All-Star break. However the Rays have lost four straight in the Bronx, allowing 34 runs in the process. New York enters having gone 12-0-1 in its last 13 home series after securing the 4-2 win over Toronto on Sunday. James Paxton (5-4, 4.01 ERA) gets the nod for the home side and he’s 3-1 with a 3.24 ERA over four career match ups with the Rays. The Rays go with Blake Snell, who is 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA vs. New York this year. Clearly Snell won’t be lacking for motivation. Key Trends: - Tampa Bay has seen the total go under in nine of 12 already as a road do this season. - New York has seen the total go under in 11 of 17 already this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: Look for these hungry and capable starters to battle into the latter frames and for this total to fall under the number once it’s all said and done! |
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07-14-19 | Mariners v. Angels -155 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Angels. The visitors hand the ball to shaky Yusei Kikuchi (4-6, 4.94 ERA) who got off to decent start in the Majors, but who has since regressed significantly. Kikuchi has been destroyed by the Angels this year as well, going 1-2 with a 12.34 ERA. The home side counters with Jose Suarez (2-1, 5.40) who is getting a shot in the rotation out of necessity because of Tyler Skaggs death (Suarez faced the M’s on june 2nd and gave up three runs over six innings in a victory, before then losing his second start vs. them, allowing two runs over five innings.) Key Trends: - Seattle is a terrible 14-25 (-5.2 units) this year as a road underdog. - LA is a fantastic 21-12 (+6.3 units) this season vs. teams with losing records. The verdict: I like Suarez to get the better of his “gas can” counterpart; lay the price! |
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07-14-19 | White Sox v. A's -207 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Oakland Athletics. The A’s have rolled to victories in the first two games of this series and I expect the home side to keep the foot on the gas in the finale as well. The visitors hand the ball to Reynaldo Lopez (4-8, 6.34 ERA), while the home side counters with Brett Anderson (9-5, 3.86). Lopez has been more “miss” than “hit” this year, while Anderson has been a pleasant surprise for the A’s. Key Trends: - Chicago is a a terrible 16-25 (-5.1 units) this season in all “day” games. - Oakland is 19-19 (+4.3 units) as a home favorite of -110 or higher. The verdict: Lay the price and expect Anderson to deliver the goods with ease! |
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07-14-19 | Pirates v. Cubs -165 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. I’ve played on the Cubs in each of the last two games and I believe they’re going to produce the series sweep this afternoon. The home side has to be feeling confident it can keep the good times rolling by handing the ball to Jose Quintana (6-7, 4.19 ERA) who won his final two games before the break (Quintana has dominated the Pirates throughout his career as well, going 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA with 46 K’s and six walks spanning 42 frames opposed). The now struggling visiting side counters with Trevor Williams (3-2, 4.54) who is 3-4 with a 4.25 ERA in nine games vs. Chicago with 19 walks and 30 K’s over 42 1/3’s innings of work. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is just 9-16 this season as a +150 or higher underdog. - Chicago is 16-5 this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: I think that Quintana could/should easily be a much bigger favorite in this spot; lay the price! |
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07-14-19 | Mets -170 v. Marlins | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets. It’s a big game for the Mets, as they look to start the second half off with a road series win, which will be their first in three months. New York has to be feeling confident as well in handing the ball to Jacob deGrom (4-7, 3.27 ERA) who has posted a tiny 2.68 ERA over his last seven starts (61 K’s and seven walks.) The home side counters with Sandy Alcantara (4-8, 3.82) who has been hit or miss this year and who I think is in the wrong place at the wrong time today. Key Trends: - New York is 24-15 in its last 39 as a road favorite of -125 or higher. - Miami is just 5-17 as a home dog in the +125 to +200 range this year. The verdict: I like the All Star deGrom to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart; lay the price! |
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07-14-19 | Nationals v. Phillies -114 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 48 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia battles back here in my opinion to avoid the series sweep. Jake Arrieta (8-7, 4.67 ERA) gets the call for the home side, while the Nationals counter with Anibal Sanchez (5-6, 3.66). Neither starter has been particularly impressive this season and each has struggled against his respective opponent today. In my opinion the starters a “wash” and the difference comes in the numbers/trends/stats and on the home side’s desperation levels. Key Trends: - Washington is still just 23-24 (-5.4 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records. - Philadelphia is 27-15 as a home favorite still this year. The verdict: After winning 12 of their last 14 and the first two of this series, I think the Nationals finally have a letdown here and I look for the desperate Phillies to take advantage. Play on Philadelphia! |
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07-13-19 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -114 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 4 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cardinals. I think we’re getting a great price on the superior starter in this one. The Cards will be hungry to bounce back after last night’s 4-2 series opening loss. Arizona’s Merrill Kelly (7-8, 4.03 ERA) has been “hit or miss” this year and while he’s been decent of late, I think he’s in the “wrong place” at the “wrong time” tonight. The home side counters with Dakota Hudson (7-4, 3.51) who has made eight straight quality starts. Key Trends: - Arizona is already just 2-4 this year after four or more consecutive victories. - St. Louis is already 6-3 this season after three or more consecutive losses. The verdict: After four straight wins, I think that the D-Backs finally have a letdown here. And after three straight losses, I expect the Cardinals to lay everything on the line and play with a sense of desperation. Lay the short price! |
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07-13-19 | Calgary v. Hamilton OVER 52.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 48 h 10 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* CFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR is the over Stamps/Ti-Cats. This is a big game for both teams. Hamilton opened the year 3-0, holding its first three opponents to just 41 total points, but it got caught looking past the Alouettes last weekend, falling 36-29. Calgary got back on track last weekend with a rout of Saskatchewan and I believe it carries that momentum over here (note that the Stamps posted 43 points on Hamilton the last time these teams met in September of 2018.) But the Ti-Cats offense has been downright awesome so far this year, producing 151 points through four games. Key Trends: - Calgary has seen the total go over in ten of its last 15 non-conference games. - Hamilton has seen the total go over in eight of its last 12 as a home favorite. The verdict: Calgary’s offense finally got untracked last weekend and I think it keeps the foot on the gas here vs. a Ti-Cats offense which was exposed in its loss last week. Hamilton’s offense has been “Firing on all cylinders” all year long and I don’t think there’s any reason not to expect it to produce here as well. Expect this one to fly over sooner, rather than later! |
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07-13-19 | Pirates v. Cubs -171 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Chicago Cubs. I had a play on the Cubs last night and I think they’ll carry over their momentum from the victory here in what sets up to be another favorable matchup for them on the mound. The visitors go with Jordan Lyles (5-5, 4.36 ERA), while the home side counters with Jon Lester (8-6, 3.72). Lester is 9-6 with a 3.12 ERA in 19 career starts vs. Pittsburgh. Lester is also 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA at home this year. Lyles is 3-3 with a 4.53 ERA in 14 career appearances vs. Chicago. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is just 9-16 as a +150 or higher dog this season. - Chicago is 26-13 as a home favorite this year. The verdict: I expect Lester to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart; lay the price with confidence! |
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07-12-19 | Braves -114 v. Padres | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 32 h 19 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. I think this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. The Braves go with Dallas Keuchel (2-2, 3.60 ERA), while the home side goes with Dinelson Lamet (0-1, 5.40.) The Padres closed the first half with three straight road wins vs. the Dodgers and I think that a classic “letdown” to open the second is imminent. Keuchel has looked decent since coming to Atlanta, allowing 11 runs over 25 innings with 12 K’s (note that Keuchel is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA with seven K’s over 14 innings vs. the Friars.) Lamet is making his second start back after having Tommy John surgery last year. Key Trends: - Atlanta is 15-6 (+8.1 units) this year as a road favorite of -110 or higher. - San Diego is just 7-8 this season vs. southpaws. The verdict: Note that the Padres are only 23-24 at Petco this year as well. Look for Keuchel to easily get the better of his still untested counterpart and lay this price with confidence! |
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07-12-19 | Twins v. Indians -115 | 5-3 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 19 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland comes in as the “hungrier” team, as it still sits behind Minnesota in the standings. But the Tribe won 21 of their last 29 to close the first half and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. The visitors go with Kyle Gibson (8-4, 4.09 ERA), while the home side counters with Mike Clevinger (2-2, 4.44). Gibson is 3-9 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 18 starts vs. Cleveland, while Clevinger is 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA in ten starts vs. Minnesota. Key Trends: - Minnesota is just 2-5 (-2.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. - Cleveland is 18-12 (+6.1 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records. The verdict: I think the Twins take a step back in the second half and I expect the Indians to carry over their recent momentum. All things considered, a very fair price on the home side; lay it! |
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07-12-19 | Rays v. Orioles +144 | 16-4 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 14 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Orioles. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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07-12-19 | Nationals -123 v. Phillies | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Nationals. I think we’re getting great value on the superior pitcher. The Nationals hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg (10-4, 3.64 ERA), while the home side counters with Nick Pivetta (4-3, 5.84). Washington comes in as the hottest team in the league, having gone 28-11 since May 24th. The Phillies closed the first half by going just 14-21. Strasburg is 12-2 with a 2.75 ERA in 25 career starts vs. Philadelphia, while Pivetta is 0-2 with a 7.33 ERA over his last four outings overall and 1-6 with a 10.80 ERA in nine career appearances vs. Washington. Key Trends: - Washington is 20-10 (+4.3 units) already this year as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. - Philadelphia is just 3-11 (-6.5 units) already this season as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: Starsburg at this price and in this match-up is a “steal” in my opinion. Play on the Nationals! |
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07-12-19 | Pirates v. Cubs -150 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. Both the Pirates’ Chris Archer (3-6, 5.49 ERA) and the Cubs’ Yu Darvish (2-4, 5.01) have been terrible this season. Each has struggled against their respective opponents as well. It was only three years ago that each of these guys was an All Star as well. Regardless, for this contest I’m calling these “gas cans” a “wash.” The difference comes in the stats/numbers/trends. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is a horrible 65-100 (-8.7 units) the L2 years as a road dog. - Chicago is 15-5 (+7.4 units) already this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -150 range. The verdict: I think the Cubs send an early message to the rest of the division with a big night at the plate to open the second half. Lay the price! |
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