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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-20-16 | Florida v. Ohio State -1 | Top | 74-66 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Ohio State. Florida would bounce back from a SEC Tournament loss at the hands of Texas A&M to beat North Florida 97-68 on Tuesday. We had the Gators in that one. Florida though was middling on the road this year, while Ohio State was dominant at home. We simply can’t state how important we feel that home floor advantage will be in this one. The Buckeyes got past Akron on Tuesday, thanks in large part to 18 points from a trio of players in Kam Williams, Marc Loving and Jaquan Lyle. Ohio State made 21 of 23 free-throw attemps as well. Florida’s offense looked decent against the Ospreys, but consistency from game to game on that end of the court has been the Gators achilles heel all year long. Not to mention that scoring on North Florida is one thing, while scoring against this talented Ohio State team is quite another. In our professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of great line value. Play on the BUCKEYES. AAA Sports |
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03-19-16 | Butler v. Virginia -7 | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 49 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Virginia. We think No. 9 seeded Butler comes to the end of the road in the Tournament as the bigger and deeper No. 1 seeded Cavaliers find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Kellen Dunham had 23 points in 31 mintues in the Bulldogs’ 71-61 win over Texas Tech in the First Round. Butler averages 80.3 PPG and shoots 46.6 percent as a team, but where the Bulldogs fall short is on the defensive end, giving up 70.8 PPG. Virginia annihilated Hampton 81-45 in its opening round game, shooting over 55 percent, including a 12/25 showing from behind the arc. The Cavs looked sharp on the defensive end as well, holding Hampton to just 30 percent shooting. The Cavs shoot 48.7 percent as a team and are ranked No. 1 in the country on the defensive end, holding opponents to just 59.2 PPG off 42.1 percent shooting. Butler is clearly a good team, but the CAVALIERS are on an entirely different level and we think their smothering defense will prove to be just too much for the Bulldogs to overcome. AAA Sports |
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03-19-16 | Yale v. Duke -5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 44 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Duke. No. 12 Yale would beat No. 5 Baylor 79-75 on Thursday as a 5.5 point underdog. Obviously the Bulldogs have to be loving life right now, not only did they get the big upset win in the first round, but it’s the first ever NCAA Tournament win for the team, which is making its first appearance in 52 years. Can anyone say classic letdown spot? The Blue Devils advanced with a less than inspiring 94-85 win over UNC Wilmington on Thursday, unable to cover the 9.5 point spread (we had Wilmington in that one). But now Duke is in the right place at the right time, we think sophomore Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram are going to have big nights vs. the overmatched Bulldogs. And if history is any precednece, then Duke has to be loving its chances today as it’s 5-0 ATS its last five vs. the Ivy League, while Yale is only 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. the ACC. These teams actually played on November 25th at Cameron Indoor Stadium and the Blue Devils would pull away for the convincing 80-61 win. We think an even bigger blowout is in the cards. Play on DUKE. AAA Sports |
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03-19-16 | Wagner +15 v. Creighton | Top | 54-87 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 47 m | Show |
This is a SECOND ROUND NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Wagner. Wagner comes into the second round with momentum and we believe the team will carry it over into this one. The Seahawks upset St. Bonaventure in their first round matchup, while Creighton cruised to an 18 point win over Alabama. Wagner’s victory was significant because many thought the Bonnies should have fact been invited to the Big Dance, but instead they’d receive a No. 1 seed in the NIT. The Seahawks won by four, led by Romone Saunders off the bench with 21 points, seven boards and four assists. The Blue Jays finished 9-9 in the BIg East and was led by Maurice Watson Jr., who averaged 14.4 points, 6.4 assists and 3.4 boards per game. The Seahawks continue to go underrated by their opposition and by the bookmakers and while we won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we’ll point out that Wagner is 3-1 ATS in its last four vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per contest, while Creighton is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home fav in the 12.5 to 15 points range. We think Creighton comes in a bit complacent here and that WAGNER takes this one down to the wire. AAA Sports |
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03-18-16 | Michigan +3 v. Notre Dame | Top | 63-70 | Loss | -108 | 35 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan. So far we’ve had a ton of success playing on or against Michigan during the tournaments. First we were on the Wolverines in their conference upset over Indiana. Then we went against Michigan in its semi-finals loss to Purdue. We then were back on the Wolverines in their First Four victory over Tulsa. Now we’ll look to continue that success. Michigan comes in battle tested and ready to prove itself again and we think it can catch ND off-guard and at the very least, expect it to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Rest invariably leads to rust and Notre Dame hasn’t played in over a week when it was last seen losing to North Carolina in the semifinals of the ACC Tourney. Michigan averages 38 percent from behind the 3-point line, but uncharacteristically struggled against Tulsa. The Wolverines looked great defensively though and we think are going to be able to slow down this ND attack (note that Michigan allows just 67.3 PPG). The Irish shoot 36.9 percent from behind the arc, but they allow teams to shoot 37.6 from 3-point range. That does not bode well vs. MICHIGAN. Look for the WOLVERINES to take this one down to the wire. AAA Sports |
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03-18-16 | Pittsburgh v. Wisconsin -2 | Top | 43-47 | Win | 100 | 33 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* OPENING ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on Wisconsin. Wisconsin interim coach Greg Gard made the most of his opportunity after Bo Ryan stepped away, directing the Badgers back to another Big Dance. Gard has had his interim label removed and he’ll now be looking to make a deep run into the tournament. Pittsburgh may have finished 21-11 overall, but the Panthers would struggle down the stretch of their season and would lose to eventual ACC Tourney Champ UNC in the quarterinal of that event. Pittsburgh enters having dropped four of its last six. The Badgers closed the season strong after a 9-9 start to finish 20-12 overall. Gard has continued Ryan’s schemes, especially on the defensive end where WIsconsin allows opponents to score the ball at a rate of 95.3 points per 100 possessions, which is ranked 24th in the country. So not only are the Panthers struggling with consistency right now, the numbers aren’t working in their favor either as they’re an amazingly bad 0-9 ATS in March games over the last two seasons. Wisconsin is playing with better chemistry right now and the combination of Ethan Happ and Nigel Hayes will be too much for Pittsburgh to handle in the paint, play on the BADGERS. AAA Sports |
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03-17-16 | Providence v. USC +2 | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 80 h 9 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on USC. Providence got bounced from the Big East Tournament early against Villanova. The Wildcats would smother Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil on the defensive end, holding the duo to just 12 total points. Villanova has given USC the blueprint to slow down the Friars. The Trojans lost to Utah in the Pac 12 Conference tournament. USC loves to get out and push the pace and we think this will prove to be too much for Providence to handle down the stretch; note that USC averages 72.0 possessions per 40 minutes, ranked 49th in the NCAA. Opponents are also scoring the ball at a rate of 99.9 per 100 possessions, which is ranked 89th in the country. The Trojans are also adept at guarding the three-ball, allowing opponents to hit just 32.3 percent, ranked 63rd. USC’s depth proves to be the difference today. AAA Sports |
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03-17-16 | Chattanooga v. Indiana -12 | 74-99 | Win | 100 | 77 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Indiana. The Mocs won the Southern Conference at 15-3 and then won the conference tournament as well, finishing a highly respectable 29-5 overall. Indiana won the tough Big Ten regular season title, but got bounced by Michigan early in the conference tournament as a 6.5 point fav. We had the Wolverines in that one. The Hoosiers finished 15-3 in conference and 25-7 overall. Indiana though will clearly be looking to take out its frustrations after the “brain fart” against Michigan cost it a shot at the conference tournament title. In Tennessee Chattanooga’s only game vs. a ranked team, it lost by 20 to Iowa State. This is a battle of David and Goliath, but this time around the giant is going to take care of business. Note that the Mocs are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 neutral site contests, while Indiana is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 following an ATS loss. Look for INDIANA to roll. AAA Sports |
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03-17-16 | NC-Wilmington +11 v. Duke | 85-93 | Win | 100 | 70 h 25 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on NC Wilmington. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that UNC Wilmington is already 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season and 4-1 ATS in all neutral court games, while Duke is 0-6 ATS in all neutral court contests this year and just 12-13 ATS when playing the role of favorite. The bottom line: We think Duke gets caught “looking past” its lowly opponent today and while we won’t be so bold as to call for the outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on UNC WILMINGTON. AAA Sports |
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03-16-16 | UAB v. BYU -9.5 | 79-97 | Win | 100 | 34 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER-BLOWOUT on BYU. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: It’s the No. 7 seed UAB Blazers taking on the No. 2 seed BYU Cougars. UAB had a 16-2 record in the C-USA, but failed to win the tournament. BYU finished in third in the WCC with a 13-5 record. These team’s overall win/loss records may be similar, but that’s where it ends in my opinion. UAB is ranked 115th in the Ken Pomeroy’s College Basketball Rankings, while BYU is ranked 59th overall. It was a devastating tournament run for the Blazers, who were picked by most to win the event. Instead the team fell 88-77 to Western Kentucky, getting out-rebounded 50-28. The team averages 79 points and allows 69.6. The Cougars average 83.6 PPG and allow 72.2. We simply can’t see the Blazers matching pace with BYU down the stretch and think this spread should be a bit larger. Play on BYU. AAA Sports |
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03-16-16 | Tulsa v. Michigan -3 | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 56 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan. We played on Michigan in its Conference Tournament upset win over Indiana and then bet against the Wolverines in their setback to Purdue. We’re once again going back the other way for this one though as we expect Michigan to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Tulsa won four of its last five before getting annihilated by Memphis in the AAC Tournament on March 11th. The Golden Hurricane are led by Shaquille Harrison, who averages 14.8 points, 5.5 boards, 4.1 assists and 1.9 steals. Tulsa’s glaring weaknesses were on full display in the setback to the Tigers, as it was out-rebounded by five in the setback (note that the Golden Hurricane are also weak in defending the 3-ball, allowing opponents to shoot 36.3 percent. This of course plays right into the Wolverines strength). Note that Michigan averages 38.4 percent from beyond the arc, led by Derrick Walton Jr. at 39.3 percent. Experience in these types of games can’t be overlooked as well, Tulsa is filled with seniors, but it’s 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight neutral court games and 0-4 ATS as a neutral court underdog, while Michigan is 7-2-1 ATS in its last ten NCAA Tournament contests and 5-0-1 ATS in its last six a an NCAA Tournament favorite. MICHIGAN’s ability to shoot the 3-ball and Tulsa’s inability to defend it adequately turns out to be the difference today. AAA Sports |
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03-15-16 | Vanderbilt +3.5 v. Wichita State | Top | 50-70 | Loss | -106 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Vanderbilt. One thing you can’t teach is “size.” The Shockers will have to contend with a major size discrepancy today and its a matchup factor which we feel will be too much for them to overcome. Vanderbilt has two 7-footers in its line-up, keep your eyes on 7-0 center Damian Jones, who was named to the SEC’s first team for averaging over 14 PPG on 60 percent shooting. The Commodores also lean on 7-1 junior Luke Kornet (7.2 PPG), who averages three blocks per contest. Wichita State was devastated by injuries earlier in the year and while its shown flashes this season, consistency from game-to-game has been a major issue. After a lacklustre 5-5 start, the Shockers would then win 19 of 21 before falling to Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley Conference semifinals. Not only will Wichita State have to deal with trying to match-up against the much larger Commodores, but it’ll also be playing for the first time in ten days. Vanderbilt last played on Thursday. Rest invariably leads to rust and we definitely expect this to be a major factor as well once the final buzzer sounds. And it’s as simple as that for us. Vanderbilt has two distinct advantages working in its favor in this matchup and while we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on VANDERBILT. AAA Sports |
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03-15-16 | Florida -7.5 v. North Florida | Top | 97-68 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* NIT Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida. Florida did not make it to the NCAA tournament, but it wasn’t a shocker at all, the team knew that it would be excluded as the SEC conference is simply stacked from top to bottom with eight schools finishing with 19 or more victories. The Gators have earned the No. 2 seed in the NIT and won’t be disappointed in being relegated to the “lesser” tournament, instead we expect them to try and dominate this event. Florida would eventually fall 72-66 to Texas A&M last Thursday in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. The Gators average 73.6 poitns and allow just 68.6. We think the Gators’ tough defensive play will be too much for the North Florida Osprey to overcome today. North Florida is surely still feeling “shell shocked” after going into the 2016 Atlantic Sun Tournament as the No. 1 seed, only to then get destroyed by eventual tournament winner Florida Gulf Coast by a score of 89-56. The Osprey shot just 31 percent on the night and were out-rebounded by 49-24. The Osprey do average 84.8 PPG, but allow 79 (note that North Florida is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss of more than 20 points). In every respect, Florida is the better team today and in our professional opinion, this line should in fact be a lot larger. Play on the GATORS. AAA Sports |
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03-14-16 | Pelicans +15 v. Warriors | Top | 107-125 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New Orleans Pelicans. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on scheduling: Running out of gas yet?: The Warriors continue to get the job done, they come into this one having won four straight and nine of their last ten, but there’s no question that the team has to be feeling a bit tired at this point of the season. With the playoffs on the horizon, at some point it’s not too hard to imagine the Warriors to start to have a bit of a mental letdown. And with the lowly Knicks on deck after the 24-41 Pelicans tonight, before a grueling road trip which starts next week in Dallas and at San Antonio, it’s definitely not to hard to imagine the team getting caught looking past this “vanilla” stretch to the much more important part of their schedule next week. The bottom line: We feel it’s a great spot to pull the trigger on this “situational” selection, grab as many points as you can with the PELICANS. AAA Sports |
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03-14-16 | Mavs +7 v. Hornets | 107-96 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Dallas Mavericks. These two teams are moving in opposite directions right now, but as we like to say: desperation breeds motivation. While we wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, we do think that at the very least that the hungry and revenge minded Mavs will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Hornets are primed for a letdown here after winning seven straight, most recently a 125-109 thumping of the Rockets on Saturday. They’ve also won nine-straight at home. Dallas on the other hand has lost five-straight. The Mavs most recently fell 112-105 to visiting Indiana on Saturday, dropping them to .500 for the first time since early November. Dallas though is still in the thick of the playoff race, in a tie with Houston for the Western Conference’s final playoff spot. As mentioned off the top, the Mavs play with the revenge-factor today after falling 108-94 to the Hornets on November 5th. One player to keep your eyes on for the visitors is veteran Dirk Nowitzki, who has averaged 26.8 points and hit 57.1 percent over his past four overall. Grab as many points as you can, play on DALLAS. AAA Sports |
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03-13-16 | Purdue v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 62-66 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Michigan State. We had Michigan in its upset over Indiana and then took Purdue to take care of the Wolverines. Michigan State lost to Purdue 82-81 in OT on February 9th and will be out to avenge that setback, while also cementing a No. 1 seed in The Tournament. Purdue used its size and defense to eventually pull away from the Wolverines, but those strengths will both be negated today by MSU’s superior defensive pressure. MSU would hold the Terps to just 33.3 percent shooting in its 64-61 win over Maryland on Saturday. In fact, not only does Michigan State rank first in three-point shooting percentage (43.5), second in field goal defense (37.7), but it’s also 13th in three-point shooting defense (30.4 percent). Note that the underdog is just 2-5 ATS the last seven in this series, while MSU is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 following a SU victory. Deadly from the outside and among the best in the country on the defensive end, combined with the revenge factor from the regular season loss does indeed make MICHIGAN STATE the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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03-12-16 | Michigan v. Purdue -6.5 | Top | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 18 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Purdue. Purdue is too big, too talented and too deep for Michigan, which has won back-to-back games to advantace to the semifinals. Michigan was on the bubble heading into the tournament and needed at least two victories to ensure its spot in the Big Dance. The Wolverines got those two victories and can now take the foot off the gas. The Boilermakers on the other hand have much bigger plans and an exit at this point would be considered a major letdown. In their win over the Illini, the Boilermakers’ 89 points were their second most in a Big Ten Tournament game in school history. Purdue has now shot over 50.0 percent from the floor in five straight games and over 55.0 percent in three straight. We think it’s also important to point out that Purdue’s bench outscored Illinois’ by a 42-to-8 margin. Michigan has been a great story, but we think has a predictable “hangover” in this spot. No need to overanalyze this one, we expect the BOILERMAKERS to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. AAA Sports |
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03-11-16 | Michigan +6.5 v. Indiana | Top | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan. It’s a quick turnaround for the Wolverines after they held on for a 72-70 OT win over Northwestern yesterday. Michigan has a lot to play for here, as it’ll be out to avenge an earlier loss to Indiana in which it clawed its way back from a 21-point deficit in the second half, only to have their effort fall short. The Wolverines also need one more win to punch their ticket to the Big Dance: “We gotta rest right now,” said Michigan coach John Beilein. “We gotta rest and get ready for tomorrow. We’ll have shoot around time here — we won’t use it — we’ll just walk and talk and watch clips of the Indiana game, as well as watch for similarities between this game and what Indiana will do.” Indiana has four players scoring in double figures, but will a five-day layoff be detrimental here? Rest invariably leads to rust, we think the Wolverines can actually use this to their benefit today and catch the Hoosiers a little flat footed out of the gate. One player to keep your eyes on is Michigan junior forward Zak Irvin, who had eight boards while also scoring the Wolverines’ winning jumper yesterday. Note that Michgian is 9-7 ATS in its last 16 tournament games, while Indiana is just 4-5 ATS in the same position. While we won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the WOLVERINES to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and sneak in through the back door down the stretch. AAA Sports |
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03-10-16 | Mississippi State +1.5 v. Georgia | 69-79 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Mississippi State. Mississippi State ended the regular season on a high-note, earning the No. 11 seed in the tournament following a 79-66 win over Auburn. Georgia is the tournaments No. 6 seed, finishing 10-8 in conference after a 70-63 win over Alabama in its regular season finale. Revenge is a major factor today though in our opinion, Mississippi State has lost four straight in this series, including a 9-3 mark in SEC tournament action. Note that Mississippi State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven in trying to revenge an ATS loss to a conference opponent of nine points or more. Grab as many points as you can, play on MISSISSIPPI STATE. AAA Sports |
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03-10-16 | Alabama +3 v. Ole Miss | 81-73 | Win | 100 | 28 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Alabama. Mississippi came back from an eight point halftime deficit to capture a 74-66 victory over Alabama back on January 7th. It’s payback time for the Crimson Tide, who lost their conference opener in that one. In fact, Alabama comes into this one having dropped three straight and five of the last six in the series. Alabama though is just one of 15 teams in the country to have beaten four teams ranked in the AP Top 25 this year. As we can tell by the spread, the oddsmakers think these teams are pretty evenly matched and we completely agree. In a contest which we foresee coming down to the last shot, all signs point to the points as the savvy move in this contest; play on ALABAMA. AAA Sports |
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03-10-16 | Arkansas v. Florida -2.5 | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Florida. Arkansas finished 16-15, while Florida finished 18-13. The Razorbacks average 78.7 points and allow 74.9, while the Gators average 74 and give up 68.7. Experience in this spot can’t be overlooked, note that Arkansas is already 0-3 this year on neutral court, while Florida is 2-1. Florida is still on the bubble of a Big Dance ticket and will need a win or two at least in the tournament to secure a victory. Ultimately we think the Gators’ hard-nosed defense will be too much for the Razorbacks to overcome. Note that Arkansas is just 6-14 ATS in its last 20 following an ATS loss, while Florida is 6-3 ATS in its last nine vs. good offensive teams which average 77-points or more per contest. Play on the GATORS. AAA Sports |
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03-09-16 | Arizona State v. Oregon State -3 | 66-75 | Win | 100 | 34 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Oregon State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on what we feel to be a couple of key factors: Revenge factor: The 11th seeded Sun Devils played the Beavers just once this season and won 86-68 on January 28th. ATS statistics: Note that ASU is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine on a neutral court, while Oregon State is 2-1 ATS this year on a neutral court and 6-4 ATS when revenging a road loss vs. an opponent. The bottom line: With a chance to avenge the earlier loss, we look for the “better” team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on OREGON STATE. AAA Sports |
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03-09-16 | UCLA +1.5 v. USC | 71-95 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on UCLA. The Bruins are the No. 10 seed, while the Trojans are the No. 7. UCLA was 3-4 vs. teams ranked in the AP top-25 this year, including wins over No. 1 Kentucky, No. 20 Gonzaga and No. 7 Arizona. The Bruins are a well rounded team who have five players which average ten or more points per game. We’re giving the Bruins the big nod in the experience department here, the team has won five of six games in the tournament the past two seasons. Note that the Bruins have won at least one game in the conference tournament in each of the past four seasons. UCLA plays with the double revenge factor after dropping both games to USC this season. Note though that the Trojans have struggled in this spot for bettors this year, going just 3-5 ATS off a loss vs. a conference rival, while UCLA is 8-6 ATS this season after allowing 80 points or more. Grab as many points as you can, play on UCLA. AAA Sports |
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03-09-16 | Heat v. Bucks +3 | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Milwaukee Bucks. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Classic letdown spot: After five straight victories, we think the Heat, who have a back-to-back set starting at Chicago on Thursday and ending in Toronto on Friday, suffer a classic letdown here. Revenge: Milwaukee plays with revenge after falling 107-103 to Miami on January 29th. Desperation breeds motivation: The Bucks will not only be hungry to avenge that setback, but they’ll also be risking life and limb in trying to snap a stretch in which they’ve lost five of their last seven. ATS statistics: Note that Miami is just 3-6 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU victories, while Milwaukee is 7-3 ATS after a divisional contest and 12-9 ATS after a loss by ten points or more. The bottom line: While we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on MILWAUKEE. AAA Sports |
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03-09-16 | Stanford +2 v. Washington | 68-91 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Stanford. The Cardinal are out for payback today and if history is any precedence, then they have to be loving their chances. Stanford lost its only meeting with Washington this year, but it would defeat UW in last year’s Pac-12 Tournament opener on a buzzer beater. Five members of the Cardinal are averaging double figures in the scoring column this season and it’s the first time a Stanford team has had five individuals average double figures since 1948. Note that Stanford is 4-2 ATS this season in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent and already 2-0 ATS this year in neutral court contests, while Washington is just 1-2 ATS this year when playing with five or six days rest and only 1-3 ATS when playing on a neutral court. Grab as many points as you can, play on STANFORD. AAA Sports |
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03-08-16 | Boston College +13 v. Florida State | 66-88 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on Boston College. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on what we feel to be a couple of key factors: Look-ahead spot: Despite this being the first round of the ACC tournament, it’s not too hard to imagine the 18-12 Seminoles taking the lowly 7-24 Eagles a little lightly today. BC was winless in conference play and is in the midst of an 18-game losing streak. Despite all of these facts, we think the value has now swung to the dog in this situation. ATS statistics: Note that the Eagles have in fact performed well in this spot for bettors this season, going 4-2 ATS in their last six vs. good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while FSU has struggled by going just 6-9 ATS when playing the role of favorite. The bottom line: This line is already dropping, grab as many points as you can as we expect the sizeable dog to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Play on BOSTON COLLEGE. AAA Sports |
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03-08-16 | Wake Forest +4.5 v. NC State | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC Tournament GAME OF THE MONTH on Wake Forest. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Both teams are terrible: Wake Forest finished 11-19, while NC State was 15-16. The Demon Deacons lost three in a row and 14 of 15, but looked decent in their 79-71 loss at Duke in the regular season finale. The Wolfpack dropped three of their last four, most recently getting crushed 89-75 at Notre Dame last weekend. These teams are in fact very evenly matched, a sentiment clearly shared by the oddsmakers. They met twice in the regular season and Wake would win 77-74 at home on January 10th, before NC State returned the favor in a 99-88 shootout on February 13th. ATS statistics: Note that Wake Forest is already 3-1 ATS this year when playing on a neutral court and 4-1 ATS in its last six when playing with five or six days rest, while NC State is just 1-2 ATS in neutral court games this season and just 1-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. The bottom line: While we wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for this one to come down to the wire. Play on WAKE FOREST. AAA Sports |
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03-07-16 | Pepperdine v. St. Mary's -7.5 | Top | 66-81 | Win | 100 | 31 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* WCC Tourney GAME OF THE YEAR on Saint Mary’s. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Double revenge scenario: The Pepperdine Waves would beat San Francisco to advance to the WCC Quarter-Finals and were the only team to defeat the Gaels twice in the regular season. It’s payback time. Defensive number discrepancies: These teams nearly average the same amount of points on the offensive end (St. Mary’s averages 74.7, while Pepperdine averages 73.7), but the Gaels only give up an average of 60 PPG, while the Waves give up an average of 70.9. The bottom line: No need to overanalyze this one in our opinion, the double revenge factor along with these massive number mismatches does indeed make SAINT MARY’S the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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03-06-16 | Nebraska +4.5 v. Northwestern | 54-65 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on Nebraska. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Lots to play for: At 14-16 overall and 6-11 in conference, at first glance it may not appear as if the Huskers have much to play for today, but that would in fact be completely inaccurate. If Nebraska can win its final game of the regular season, it would lock up a first-round bye for next weeks’ Big Ten Tournament, plus a win by either Michigan State, Purdue or Illinois. Revenge: Despite Benny Parker setting a career high with 17 points and seven assists, highlighted by five 3-pointers, Nebraska fell 81-72 to Northwestern in the team’s Big Ten opener on December 30th. It was a disappointing setback and one the Huskers won’t soon forget as the Wildcats overcame a 12-point second half deficit for the victory. ATS statistics: Note the Nebraska is 5-1 ATS in its last six in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent after leading the setback by at least ten points at half time, while Northwestern is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line: This is an important game for both teams, but the situational factors and strong ATS trends are all pointing to a nail-biter. Grab the points with NEBRASKA. AAA Sports |
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03-05-16 | Louisville +5 v. Virginia | Top | 46-68 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Louisville. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Revenge: Here’s another great revenge scenario as the Cardinals would fall 63-47 to Virginia on January 30th. Louisville enters the final game of the regular season with plenty of momentum, winning four of its last five, including a 56-53 over Georgia Tech last time out. ATS statistics: Note that Louisville is 6-1 ATS in its last seven in trying to revenge a loss by 14 points or more vs. a conference opponent, while Virginia is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after back-to-back covers vs. conference opponents. The bottom line: These teams are separated by just a single game in the standings, an all out war is in the cards, so in a contest which we envision coming down to whoever has the final possession, we’ll ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on LOUISVILLE. AAA Sports |
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03-05-16 | California v. Arizona State +3.5 | Top | 68-65 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Arizona State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a couple of different factors: Revenge: I played on Arizona State in its game vs. Stanford on Thursday and it would break a four game losing streak and avenge an earlier loss to the Cardinal. Here’s another revenge situation vs. California as the Sun Devils fell 75-70 on January 21st to the Golden Bears. Classic letdown spot: After winning seven straight, Cal finally had a letdown in a 64-61 loss to Arizona last time out, a team which now sits two games ahead of it with one to play. The motivation factor is low for the Golden Bears right now. ATS statistics: Note that Cal is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after a SU loss following a five game or more unbeaten streak, while ASU is 6-3 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a loss vs. a Pac-12 opponent. The bottom line: In a contest which we envision coming down to the wire, we’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on ARIZONA STATE. AAA Sports |
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03-04-16 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green +2 | 87-83 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Bowling Green. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Buffalo is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games where the total is 145 to 149.5 and just 5-7 ATS in true road games, while Bowling Green is 15-12 ATS in its last 27 after scoring 60 points or less. The bottom line: A couple of bottom feeders going head to head here, each comes in on lengthy runs of futility, but the difference is that the Falcons plays with revenge here after falling 88-74 to Buffalo on February 20th. Grab as many points as you can with BOWLING GREEN. AAA Sports |
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03-03-16 | Stanford v. Arizona State -3 | Top | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Arizona State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on what we feel to be a couple of difference making factors: Revenge: The Sun Devils fell to Stanford 75-73 on January 23rd. Road vs. home records: The Cardinal are just 2-6 on the road, while ASU is 10-5 in front of the home town crowd. ATS statistics: Note that Stanford is just 2-6 ATS on the road this season and only 2-5 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival, while Arizona State is already 3-1 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU losses. The bottom line: Three key factors collide to make ARIZONA STATE the savvy move in this matchup. AAA Sports |
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03-02-16 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss -5 | Top | 78-86 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Mississippi. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Ole Miss guard Stefan Moody: Moody has been on a tear of late and he’s a big reason why we love this pick. We simply can’t see the Bulldogs slowing him down. Note that Moody leads the SEC, while ranking ninth nationally in scoring at 22.8 PPG this season. He’s posted 19, 20-plus points games and has topped the 30-point plateau three times. Revenge: These teams played on January 16th and the Bulldogs would pull off the 83-77 victory. It’s payback time. ATS statistics: Note that Mississippi State is just 2-3 ATS this season off a win vs. a conference rival, while Ole Miss is 5-2 ATS off a loss vs. a conference rival. The bottom line: The crowd will be amped and so will MISSISSIPPI’s talented senior’s. And with some very real “revenge motivation” working in their favor, all signs do indeed point to the Rebels as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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03-01-16 | Suns v. Hornets -13 | 92-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Charlotte Hornets. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Home sweet home: The Hornets return to Charlotte for the first time in nearly three weeks, going 4-2 on their road trip. They’re in a heated race for the postseason and will look to now take advantage in playing eight of their next nine in front of the home town crowd. And it all starts tonight. Phoenix road woes: The Suns are brutal away from friendly confines, they’ve lost 15 straight on the road by an average of 20.1 points. Revenge factor: One of Phoenix’s 15 victories this year came against Charlotte on January 6th, the Suns would pull away for a 111-102 win. In fact, Phoenix has won three straight in Charlotte and seven of the last eight in the series (but note, the Suns’ top five scorers from last year’s 111-106 victory there are not even with the team or are injured). ATS statistics: Note that Phoenix is just 7-20 ATS on the road and interestingly, just 16-23 ATS this season vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest, while Charlotte is 19-15 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and 7-3 ATS following a divisional contest. The bottom line: We think a motivated Charlotte team, which has dropped two of its last three, comes in focused on the task at hand today and uses these motivational factors to post a convincing victory. Play on the HORNETS. AAA Sports |
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02-29-16 | Syracuse +11.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Syracuse. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Revenge game: North Carolina beat the Orange 84-73 on January 16th. In fact, this is a double revenge scenario after Syracuse fell 93-83 to the Tar Heels on January 26th, 2015 as well. Momentum: Sure UNC is 23-6 and in a dog fight for top spot in the conference, but the Orange have been rolling as well, winning nine of their last 12. In fact, the Tar Heels have looked pretty ordinary of late, having split their last eight games. As far as overall consistency from game to game right now is concerned, the scales swing in favor of the Orange. ATS statistics: Note that Syracuse is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games, while North Carolina is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six following a straight up loss and interestingly, just 2-5-2 ATS in its last nine on Big Monday. The bottom line: Syracuse has improved in leaps in bounds since the last time UNC saw it, especially on the defensive end of the floor. We think the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing this fact and while we won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the visitors to at the very least keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what we feel to be a very healthy spread afforded to them in this one. Play on the ORANGE. AAA Sports |
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02-28-16 | Washington v. Oregon -10 | Top | 73-86 | Win | 100 | 29 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oregon. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Home sweet home: The Ducks are still in No. 1 in the Pac-12 and after back-to-back victories over Oregon State and Washington State, they’ve now won a school record 24 straight in front of the home town crowd. So with two tough road games to finish the season, today’s contest clearly takes on added importance for Oregon. Stumbling down the stretch: A once promising season has gone by the way side for the Huskies, after a 7-3 start they’ve lost five of their last six. The team will still be lamenting its 82-81 setback at Oregon State last Thursday, in which a 3-pointer at the buzzer sealed their fate. And unfortunately, a date in Eugene is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as they’ve lost five straight there. Massive statistical discrepancies: Oregon averages a conference-low 10.3 turnovers and just 8.7 over its last six, while Washington’s 14.4 giveaways are the most in the Pac-12. ATS statistics: Note that Washington is just 13-20 ATS in its last 33 after allowing 80 points or more, while Oregon is 6-1 ATS its last seven vs. good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest. The bottom line: This is a motivational mismatch, we’re expecting a wire-to-wire rout, play on the DUCKS. AAA Sports |
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02-28-16 | Blazers v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 111-102 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
This is 10* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the Indiana Pacers. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Scheduling and motivation levels: No need to overanalyze this one, as good as Damian Lillard has been and despite the Blazers having won 12 of their last 14, Portland comes into this one off a very satisfying 103-95 victory at Chicago just last night. For the Pacers though, this is an ultra-important game as they hit the road tomorrow for a five game trip, starting off in Cleveland. Not only will they be looking to take advantage of home floor, but they’re also out for revenge after falling 123-111 to Portland on December 3rd. It also wouldn’t be too hard to imagine the Blazers getting caught looking ahead to two whole days off after tonight’s game before continuing their marathon road trip at New York, Boston, Toronto and Detroit respectively. ATS statistics: Note that Portland is a poor 4-8 ATS this season when playing on back-to-back days, while Indiana is 19-8 ATS vs. teams with winning records and 8-5 ATS this year as a home fav in the 3.5 to six points range. The bottom line: The situational, motivational and trend based factors all point to the PACERS as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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02-28-16 | Hornets v. Hawks -3.5 | Top | 76-87 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* Southeast Division GAME OF THE YEAR on the Atlanta Hawks. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: History is against them: There’s no question that the Hornets have been playing great of late, but note that they’ve never posted five wins on a six-game road trip in franchise history. This one definitely sets up as a letdown spot for the home side after its thrilling 96-95 victory over Indiana on Friday, where Kemba Walker scored a layup with just 2.4 seconds left. If history is any precedence: Atlanta has to be loving its chances for a victory today as it’s gone 15-2 in the series in front of the home town crowd since 2007. Revenge factor: Charlotte beat the Hawks 107-84 on January 13th. ATS statistics: Note that the Hornets are just 17-18 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest, while Atlanta is 20-17 ATS in the same position. The bottom line: Charlotte has been playing extremely well, while the Hawks for the most part have been struggling with offensive consistency. And that’s why we love this selection, it’s a great situational play as we expect the visitors to come in a tiny bit complacent, while the home side will be risking life and limb to try and string a couple wins together. Play on ATLANTA. AAA Sports |
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02-26-16 | Bulls v. Hawks -6 | 88-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Hawks. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Classic letdown spot: The Bulls had lost five straight heading into the All Star break and with Jimmy Butler and Nikola Mirotic sidelined with injury, the team wasn’t expected to make much noise in the second half. However, behind some great play from Derrick Rose, Chicago has won three straight, most recently a full team effort in a 109-104 victory over Washington on Wednesday. So is it time to crown the Bulls after a couple of good games? We’re going to caution in reading too much into this small win skein, remember that they combined to shoot just 40.9 percent while failing to top 95 points in their previous three losses. Also note that Chicago has lost four straight on the road. Desperation breeds motivation: The Hawks will be risking life and limb today to try and secure a victory as they’ve come out of the All Star break and lost three straight. They’ll also be eager to snap a four-game home skid. ATS statistics: Note that Chicago is just 9-11 ATS in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent this season and only 2-4 ATS after playing three consecutive home games, while Atlanta is a perfect 3-0 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU losses. The bottom line: The revenge factor gets thrown out the window today as the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on ATLANTA. AAA Sports |
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02-26-16 | Wizards v. 76ers +8.5 | 103-94 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia 76ers. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Revenge: The Sixers fell 106-94 at Washington on February 5th and have lost seven of the last eight in the series. Classic “look-ahead” spot: With a game vs. Cleveland at home on Sunday, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors looking past their lowly opponent today. Washington has already done this a few times this season, losing to the Bulls on Wednesday, who were playing without Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler and also to the Heat earlier in the season without Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade on the floor. ATS statistics: Note that Washington is just 15-17 ATS vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest, while Philadelphia is 9-7 ATS in its last 16 in the same position. The bottom line: The 76ers are at full health and catch an inconsistent Wizards team looking ahead to its matchup vs. the defending Eastern Conference champions; play on PHILADELPHIA. AAA Sports |
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02-26-16 | Hornets v. Pacers -3 | 96-95 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Indiana Pacers. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Momentum: Indiana is finding a groove with a new starting lineup, over the last 12 games the unit has scored 102.2 points per 100 possessions when on the court together, while giving up 85.2. Once momentum is lost though, it’s very difficult to gain it back and that’s the situation that the Hornets find themselves in here as they had their five-game win streak and four-game road winning streak snapped in Wednesday’s 114-103 loss to the Cavaliers. Revenge: Indiana’s 12-game home win streak in the series was snapped in a 117-95 loss to Charlotte on February 10th. ATS statistics: Note that Charlotte is just 16-18 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest, while Indiana is 19-7 ATS vs. teams with winning records and 23-15 ATS vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus per contest. The bottom line: It’s a classic letdown spot for the visitors, we like the surging home side to take advantage and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Play on INDIANA. AAA Sports |
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02-26-16 | Columbia +9.5 v. Princeton | Top | 83-88 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Columbia. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on what we feel to be a couple of key factors: Revenge: Two of the top teams in the Ivy League go head to head tonight, The Columbia Lions have won two straight and four of five, while Princeton has won six straight. So where’s the advantage you ask? We think the “revenge factor” is a major one today, the Tigers have won four straight and nine of the last ten in the series, including an 88-83 OT victory in Columbia on February 13th. ATS statistics: Note that Columbia is already 2-1 ATS this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent and 4-2 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival, while Princeton is just 2-3 ATS at home this season and only 2-3 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival. The bottom line: These teams are very evenly matched on both ends of the floor, but the revenge factor and these strong and relevant ATS trends, combined with what we feel to be a very healthy spread afforded to it, all do indeed make COLUMBIA the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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02-25-16 | Rockets +4.5 v. Blazers | 119-105 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* EXPRESS on the Houston Rockets. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Revenge: The Rockets have already lost twice to the Blazers this season, despite massive efforts from James Harden and Dwight Howard. Classic letdown spot: There’s no question that Portland has been playing awesome of late, but note that the team hasn’t won seven in a row in over 15 months. Conversely, while the Blazers sit complacent and contented, the Rockets are now on the outside of the playoff picture looking in after falling 117-114 in OT at Utah on Tuesday. ATS statistics: Note that Houston is 2-1 ATS this season after playing three consecutive road games, also 7-4 ATS in its last 11 vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest and 6-4 ATS this season as a road dog in the 3.5 to six points range, while Portland is just 3-6 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU victories. The bottom line: While we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we expect Harden and Howard to keep this one close enough to at the very least allow the ROCKETS to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. AAA Sports |
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02-24-16 | Hornets v. Cavs -8 | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Cleveland Cavaliers. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Classic letdown spot: The Hornets have been playing great, but after winning four straight away from friendly confines, we’re definitely expecting a drop-off in production today. Note that Charlotte hasn’t won five straight on the road in more than 14 years. And note that the Hornets were 6-17 away from home prior to this run. Revenge: The Cavs will be looking to atone for a 106-97 setback to the Hornets on February 3rd. Injuries: Note that Charlotte will be without Michael Kidd-Gilchrist who was lost to an injury last Wednesday. If history is any precedence: Cleveland has to be loving its chances today as the last time Charlotte visited on January 23rd, 2015, the home side would come away with the convincing 129-90 victory. ATS statistics: Note that Charlotte is just 16-17 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest, while Cleveland is 15-9 ATS vs. teams with winning records. The bottom line: A classic letdown spot, revenge situation, all signs do indeed point to the CAVALIERS as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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02-23-16 | Vanderbilt v. Florida -3 | 87-74 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on Florida. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Vanderbilt is just 3-7 ATS on the road this year and only 2-5 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival, while Florida is 6-4 ATS at home and 4-1 ATS off a loss vs. a conference rival. The bottom line: These strong trends can not be ignored in this spot, play on FLORIDA. AAA Sports |
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02-22-16 | Cleveland State +12.5 v. Green Bay | 61-78 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Cleveland State. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Classic “look-ahead” spot: It’s not too hard to Imagine the 17-11 Green Bay Phoenix “looking past” lowly Cleveland State today, 8-20 overall and just 3-12 in conference which is tied for last in the league. Revenge spot: Despite being out of contention for quite some time, the Vikings will be out to atone for a 20 points loss to the Phoenix back on January 7th. ATS statistics: Note that Cleveland State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven in trying to revenge a 20 point or more home loss to an opponent, while Green Bay is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a home fav or 11 points or more. The bottom line: With a date vs. last place Illinois-Chicago after this, followed by a contest vs. league-leading Valparaiso to end the regular season, all signs point to the home side having enough of a mental lapse for the visiting VIKINGS to quietly sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what we feel to be a healthy amount of points afforded to them in this spot. AAA Sports |
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02-22-16 | Coyotes v. Capitals -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Washington Capitals. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Alexander Ovechkin: The Capitals’ super star has nine goals in his last seven games and 24 of his 38 goals over the last 26 contests. He’s also fared extremely well against Arizona throughout his career, posting four goals and eight assists in ten career meetings, including a goal and three helpers in this most recent home matchup. Arizona road woes: The Coyotes have lost three straight away from friendly confines, getting outscored 14-5 in the process. A sub-par power play is definitely to blame as Arizona is just 1 for 16 with the man advantage over its last four on the road. ATS statistics: Note that Arizona is just 8-12 (-1.6 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest and only 8-15 (-5.6 units) in all non-conference games, while Washington is 11-5 (+4.4 units) in all non-conference games and 22-7 (+10 units) vs. teams with losing records. The bottom line: All signs point to an epic lop-sided destruction, play on the CAPITALS on the PUCK-LINE. AAA Sports |
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02-21-16 | Lakers v. Bulls -7.5 | Top | 115-126 | Win | 100 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* TNT SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Chicago Bulls. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Injured legend: The Lakers have looked a lot more competitive of late, especially for bettors as they’ve covered in six straight games. A big reason has been the improved play of Kobe Bryant, who has averaged 24.9 over his last seven. Note though that Bryant would dislocate his right middle finger in Friday’s 119-113 loss to San Antonio and while the aging super star will get the start today, we don’t expect him to be nearly as effective. With their main weapon and offensive focal point relegated as a second or third option tonight, we have a hard time seeing the overachieving visitors keeping pace with this hungry home side. Rising Bulls?: Chicago stumbled into the break, but looked great on both ends of the floor in a 116-106 home over Toronto on Friday that ended a five-game skid. Pau Gasol, who played 6.5 years with Bryant in LA, would barely miss posting a triple-double with 18 points, 11 boards and nine assists. Gasol dominated his former team on January 28th as well with 21 points, 12 boards and seven assists in the Bulls’ 114-91 victory. If history is any precedence: The Bulls have to like their chances today in being able to string together a couple of convincing victories as they’ve won seven of the last nine in the series, including the last four on their home floor. ATS statistics: Note that LA is just 5-7 ATS this season after scoring 105 points or more, while Chicago is 12-9 ATS in all non-conference contests. The bottom line: With their leader injured, we expect the Lakers to come out flat tonight, it’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of the BULLS, lay the points. AAA Sports |
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02-21-16 | Pelicans v. Pistons -5 | Top | 111-106 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Detroit Pistons. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Uphill battle: Despite beating the 76er’s 121-114 on Friday and going 10-7 since January 13th, the Pelicans face a daunting task in their quest for a second-straight playoff appearance, right now they’re 12th in the Western Conference, six games behind Houston and Utah for eighth place. On the cusp: Conversely, despite a brutal stretch in which they’ve lost four straight and seven of their last ten overall, the Pistons still sit just 1.5 games back of Charlotte and Chicago for the final two spots in the East. Detroit got a much needed boost via trades before the deadline, acquiring Tobias Harris from the Magic for Brandon Jennings and Erlan Ilyasova, while also getting Donatas Motiejunas and veteran guard Marcus Thornton from the Rockets: "You're going to have to take some risk in order to get better," Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy said. "There are no deals where there's no risk and we feel like this was a risk we could handle." Revenge factor: Detroit will be looking to atone for a lacklustre 115-99 setback at New Orleans on January 21st. In fact, the Pelicans have won three straight in Detroit and haven’t lost to the Pistons whatsoever since February 2012. ATS statistics: Note that New Orleans is just 5-13 ATS in non-conference games this season and only 9-12 ATS after scoring 105 points or more, while Detroit is 4-3 ATS this year as a home fav in the 3.5 to six points range and in 16-9 ATS in all home games. The bottom line: With a game tomorrow night at Cleveland, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the home side and we expect this determined play to ultimately prove to be the difference in the outcome of this contest. Lay the points on the PISTONS. AAA Sports |
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02-20-16 | Hawaii v. UC-Irvine -1.5 | 75-71 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG-WEST BAILOUT-BLOWOUT on Cal Irvine. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Both teams are rolling, so where’s the advantage?: Hawaii has won five straight, most recently a 69-63 road victory over Cal State on Thursday, while UC Irvine has won two straight and three of four after destroying Cal State Fullerton 96-77 on the road on Wednesday. The clincher for us today though is the very real “revenge factor” in which the Anteaters play with today after the Rainbow Warriors took the first meeting of the season, a 74-52 spanking on February 12th. ATS statistics: Note that Hawaii is just 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. teams with a home winning percentage above .600, while UC Irvine is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 vs. the conference and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 at home vs. teams with a road winning percentage above .600. The bottom line: These teams are very evenly matched, but the revenge factor, combined with the home floor advantage and these strong trends do indeed make the ANTEATERS the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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02-20-16 | Oregon State v. Oregon -10.5 | Top | 81-91 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Oregon. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: It’s payback time: Oregon State beat the Ducks 70-57 in Corvallis on January 3rd, Oregon had come into that game having won four straight and seven of eight in the series previous to that. Oregon is 88th in the nation in averaging 77.3 PPG. Letdown spot: After winning three straight, the Beavers got spanked 83-71 at Cal last Saturday. Momentum is hard to gain, but it’s even harder to get it back once lost. Note that Oregon State is ranked 235th in the nation in putting up an average of 71 PPG. ATS statistics: Oregon State is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 on the road vs. teams with a home winning percentage of at least .600 and only 2-10 ATS in their last 12 on the road vs. teams with winning home records, while Oregon is 8-1 ATS in its last nine at home vs. teams with a road winning percentage of below .400, 8-1 ATS in its last nine at home vs. teams with a losing road record and 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with winning records overall. The bottom line: Oregon is 15-0 in Eugene this season, while Oregon State is just 3-5 on the road. With a chance to avenge the earlier loss to their arch-rival, we look for the DUCKS to put the pedal to the metal from start to finish. AAA Sports |
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02-20-16 | Ole Miss -4 v. Auburn | 69-59 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Mississippi. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Motivation levels: We feel Mississippi comes in highly motivated and focused on the task at hand. It’s 16-10 SU and 6-7 in the SEC and will be looking to get back on track after losing two of its last three to fall to ninth in conference. While conversely, we believe that Auburn is set up for a major letdown after it upset Arkansas on the road, 90-86 to break a seven-game losing slide. Recent history: Revenge is a powerful motivating factor, but in some instances it can be over-rated and that’s the case with this one in our opinion. Ole Miss dominated Auburn 80-63 at home in the first meeting and we expect a similar final outcome today. If Mississippi had come into this one on a win streak, we’d have likely taken Auburn in this spot, but because of the recent losing skid, the “revenge factor” gets thrown out the window in this case. In the first meeting, the Rebels held the Tigers to just 37 percent shooting, while also out rebounding them 35-28. ATS statistics: Ole Miss is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss and 4-1-1 ATS in its last six on the road, while Auburn is just 1-5 ATS its last six following an ATS victory and 2-6 ATS in its last eight overall. The bottom line: Ole Miss would beat Arkansas by 16 last Saturday, there’s no way that Auburn shoots over 60 percent from the floor again. We’re expecting a rout, play on MISSISSIPPI. AAA Sports |
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02-20-16 | Georgia v. Vanderbilt -10 | 67-80 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on Vanderbilt. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: They are evenly matched, so where’s the advantage?: There’s no question that these teams are evenly matched, Georgia enters off a loss to Florida and is 14-10 overall and 7-6 in conference, while Vanderbilt comes in off a tough setback to Mississippi State and which has also won three of its last five. But it was the way that Vandy lost which we feel will motivate the team after a three-point buzzer beater sealed its fate. And this was after leading by as many as 17 points in the second half (note that the Bulldogs are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 following an ATS loss). ATS statistics: Note that Georgia is just 1-6 ATS this year after allowing 60 points or less, while Vanderbilt is 7-4 ATS in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line: After taking all of the above info into consideration, while also taking into account that the home side does also play with revenge today after falling 70-62 to Georgia last season, it is in our professional opinion that VANDERBILT is indeed the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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02-20-16 | Florida v. South Carolina -2.5 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on South Carolina. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Motivation: The Gators are 17-9 and have won four of their last six. The Gamecocks are 21-5, but have lost two straight and three of their last five. For us, this sets up nicely, it’s a natural letdown spot for the visitors, while the home side will be desperate to prove that it’s opening season surge was no fluke. Look deeper into the numbers: If you look a little closer at Florida’s 17-9 record, you realize that it’s just 1-5 vs. ranked teams this season, a lone victory came over WVU in January. ATS statistics: Note that Florida is just 3-4 ATS this year off a win vs. a conference rival and only 1-4 ATS in February, while South Carolina is 8-3 ATS at home and 14-6 ATS when playing the role of favorite. The bottom line: There’s no way this game means more to the Gators than it does to the GAMECOCKS, we’re backing the hungry and desperate home side. AAA Sports |
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02-19-16 | Harvard +7.5 v. Columbia | Top | 76-90 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Harvard. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Desperation breeds motivation: The Crimson will be eager to break out of their funk, having dropped six of their last seven. Revenge factor: Harvard had won five straight in this series before Columbia took the first meeting of this season, 57-55 on the road on January 30th. Tough defensive play: Harvard has been all over the map as far as its consistency on the offensive end of the floor, but one constant has been its defensive play, it allows an average of just 66 points a game, ranked 48th in the country. Classic letdown spot: The Lions are 6-2 in Ivy League play, but come in off a tough loss to Princeton last time out. It’s hard to gain momentum and once lost, it’s even harder to get it back. ATS statistics: Note that Harvard is 2-1 ATS in its last three in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while Columbia is just 3-4 ATS vs. conference opponents and only 2-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd this season. The bottom line: A hungry HARVARD team catches Columbia complacent and while we won’t be so bold as to call for the outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the visitors to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. AAA Sports |
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02-18-16 | Spurs v. Clippers +3.5 | Top | 86-105 | Win | 100 | 32 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the LA Clippers. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Significant injuries: The Spurs will once again be without the services of big man Tim Duncan and veteran Manu Ginobili tonight. Home court advantage: The Spurs are 28-0 at home, but a mere 17-8 on the road. Obviously that’s still a great record, but it’s definitely been more of an adventure for San Antonio whenever it’s played away from friendly confines. LA is 17-8 at home and with a game vs. the Warriors on deck next, we’re expecting the team to leave everything it has on the floor tonight in trying to secure the upset. Revenge factor: San Antonio won the first matchup of the year, a 115-107 victory on December 18th. ATS statistics: Note that the Spurs are interestingly just 4-5 ATS in their last nine vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest, while the Clippers are 9-7 ATS in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and 6-3 ATS in their last nine vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per game. The bottom line: Even without Blake Griffin in the lineup tonight, we love the CLIPPERS in this spot, there are a bunch of different situational and strong trend based factors working in their favor today and while we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. AAA Sports |
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02-18-16 | SMU v. Connecticut -3.5 | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 29 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Connecticut. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: A great start, but a little inconsistent lately: The Mustangs opened the season 18-0 and were the final team in the country to lose a game, but SMU has since alternated wins with losses over its last six. And after beating a good Gonzaga team 69-60 in Dallas on Saturday in non-conference play, there’s no question in our minds that this one does indeed set up as a bit of a letdown spot for the visitors (remember, SMU is not able to participate in any postseason basketball because of NCAA violations). A massive game for the home side: UConn is firmly on the bubble right now but a victory today would likely cement its ticket to the Big Dance. The Huskies have yet to beat a ranked team this season and today’s matchup with SMU will be their last chance to do so. Upon comes in with momentum as it would hold on for a crucial 75-73 win over Tulsa on Saturday. Strength against strength: It’s true that SMU has the AAC’s top offense, but note that UConn ranks second nationally in field-goal defense at 37.3 percent. ATS statistics: Note that SMU is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600; it’s also only 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. teams with a winning SU record and 1-7 ATS in its last eight following an ATS victory and finally a poor 0-4 ATS in its last four following a straight win. And note that UConn is 23-10 TS in its last 33 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 (and note that the home team is 4-1 ATS the last five in this series). The bottom line: It’s payback time, as SMU beat UConn 62-54 in last year’s AAC Tournament final, which kept the Huskies out of the NCAA Tournament a year after winning it. Play on CONNECTICUT! AAA Sports |
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