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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-24-17 | Ravens v. Jaguars +4 | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 140 h 0 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on Jacksonville. This is the first time ever that Baltimore has played a game abroad. The Ravens are 2-0 after beating the Browns 24-10 at home last week. Note though that Baltimore is dealing with major injury issues right now, including to All-Pro right guard Marshall Yanda, who is out with a broken ankle. The Jags beat Houston 29-7 in their opener and then fell 37-16 at home to a determined Tennessee side. Note that the Jaguars play with revenge after the Ravens won a tight 19-17 contest in Jacksonville last season. Jacksonville has made the trip across the pond several times over the last few years, so it’s used to this routine. The Ravens have gotten out to a quick start, but we think there are enough situational factors working against them here, which all point to a letdown. We’re grabbing the points, play on the JAGUARS. AAA Sports |
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09-23-17 | Oregon v. Arizona State +16 | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 148 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PUNISHER on Arizona State. While we’re not calling for an outright upset, we do definitely feel that the desperate home side will keep this one competitive late. Oregon: The Ducks have beaten Southern Utah, Nebraska and Wyoming. Willie Taggert is running the show in Oregon now after taking USF to a 10-2 record last year. So far Oregon averages 56 PPG. QB Justin Herbert had 254 yards, one TD and one pick last week. RB Royce Freeman had 157 yards and three TD’s. Arizona State: The Sun Deivls beat New Mexico State, but then fell to SDSU and Texas Tech. Arizona State has been poor defensively, so far allowing 37.7 PPG. They’ve been offensively and we expect that unit to keep this team in the game late. The bottom line: With a game at home against undefeated Cal next week (a team the Ducks lost 52-49 too last year), we think that Oregon gets caught looking past the Sun Devils tonight. Grab the points, play on ARIZONA STATE. AAA Sports |
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09-23-17 | Akron v. Troy -14 | 17-22 | Loss | -115 | 145 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Troy. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting a complete beatdown from start to finish in this one. Akron: The Zips come off a 41-14 home loss to Iowa State on Saturday. Akron was outgained 508-331 and was hurt by three costly turnovers. So far the Zips ar ranked 53rd in scoring offense with 33 PPG average, while ranked 98th on the defensive side in allowing 32 PPG. QB Thomas Woodson so far has 477 yards passing with three TD’s and two INT’s. Warren Ball leads the run game with 213 total yards and three TD’s. Troy: The Trojans won their Sun Belt opener by taking down New Mexico State 27-24 on the road last weekend. Troy had a 476-382 yardage advantage and is so far ranked 95th in scoring with 24.7 PPG. The Trojans though ahve been tough defensively this year, so far allowing just 18.3 PPG, ranked 38th overall. QB Brandon Silvers has 770 yards passing. RB Jamarius Henderson has 170 yards and three TD’s. The bottom line: Note that Akron is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after posting more than 450 total yards in its previous game, while Troy is 2-1 ATS in its last three as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. The Trojans have yet to cover this year, but we think that changes tonight. We believe TROY’S superior defense will prove to be the difference maker once it’s all said and done. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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09-23-17 | TCU +13 v. Oklahoma State | 44-31 | Win | 100 | 129 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER SPECIAL on TCU. TCU enters off a 56-36 victory over SMU at home, while Oklahoma State comes off a 59-21 win over Pittsburgh. Note that the Horned Frogs play with revenge here after the Cowboys won 31-6 on their own field last season. TCU: The Horned Frogs will have their hands full with OKS’s offense today. Last week TCU gave up 36 points to SMU. The defense did return seven starters and the unit is expected to be a strength of the team. The offense returned ten starters and the unit posted 619 yards of offense against the Mustangs. QB Kenny Hill had 365 yards and four TD’s with no INT’s. So far TCU ranks seventh in the nation in scoring with an average of 49.0 PPG, while ranked 22nd in the nation on defense in conceding 14.3 PPG. Oklahoma State: The Cowboys cruised to a relatively simple victory over the Panthers, with Mason Rudolph going for 497 yards and five TD’s. The defense looked pretty good in conceding just 401 yards of offense. Overall OKS ranks fourth in scoring with 54.0 PPG, while ranked 34th in the country on the defensive side in conceding 17.3 PPG. The bottom line: Note that TCU is 2-0 ATS in is last two as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Oklahoma State is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as a favorite in the same points range. The Cowboys are an awesome team no doubt, but TCU is no slouch either. We think the Horned Frogs offense can keep the visiting side in this one late. While we’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, this does indeed seem to be a few too many points. Play on TCU. AAA Sports |
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09-23-17 | Wake Forest v. Appalachian State +3 | Top | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 143 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Appalachian State. The Demon Deacons are 3-0 after trashing Utah State 46-10 at home last weekend. Last week the Mountaineers beat Texas State on the road 20-13. App State’s lone loss comes in its opener, a 31-10 setback at Georgia. Wake Forest: QB John Wolford is playing his best ball of his career, so far going for 500 yards, six TD’s and no INT’s. He also has 192 rushing yards. RB Arkeem Byrd had 120 yards on 19 carries in last week’s win. The defense also looked sharp, so far the unit has allowed just 273.3 YPG. Appalachian State: Mountaineers QB Taylor Lamb was 17 of 28 for 167 yards, one TD and no INT’s last week. So far Lamb has 622 yards, six TD’s and no INT’s this year. App State gives up just 289 YPG thus far. Offensively the team averages 175.3 rushing YPG. The bottom line: With a big conference matchup at home against Florida State next weekend, there’s no question that this sets up as a classic “look ahead/trap” game for the visitors. We’re grabbing the points, play on APPALACHIAN STATE. AAA Sports |
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09-23-17 | Boston College +32.5 v. Clemson | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 143 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER BLOWOUT on Boston College. We got down early and unfortunately have a bit of a crummy line as of writing (32.5), but regardless we still really like this play. Obviously we’re not calling for the outright upset, but we do think there are enough factors working in favor of BC to keep it a lot closer than what Sin City would have us believe. Boston College: Last week the Eagles lost 49-20 at home to Notre Dame. Not surprisingly the Eagles play with revenge today after falling 56-10 in last year’s lone matchup. Last week BC was outgained 611-400, despite a 22-19 edge in first downs. Boston College also held a 30:35 to 29:35 edge in time of possession. Three turnovers hurt though. So far BC averages just 17.7 PPG, while conceding 34.3. Not a recipie for success, but as we mentioned off the top, we believe that the home side is going to get caught “looking past” their lowly opponent today to their much more important contest at Virginia Tech next weekend. Clemson: The Tigers went on the road and won an emotional 47-21 affair at No. 14 Louisville last weekend. Clemson is ranked 31st in the country in scoring offense with 39 PPG, while ranked 8th in scoring defense with 10 points conceded. QB Kelly Bryant has 733 yards, two TD’s and an INT through the air, with another 162 on the ground with another five major scores. The bottom line: Note that BC is 4-3 ATS in its last seven after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Clemson is just 1-3 ATS in its last four against teams with losing records. Just a few too many points here, play on BOSTON COLLEGE. AAA Sports |
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09-23-17 | Pittsburgh +7.5 v. Georgia Tech | 17-35 | Loss | -100 | 140 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on Pittsburgh. When these teams met last year it was Pittsburgh which scored the 37-34 victory. The Panthers enter off a 59-21 home loss to Oklahoma State, while Georgia Tech’s game was cancelled last week due to Hurricane Irma. The Panthers: Many teams are going to struggle with Oklahoma State’s up-tempo offense this year and you can chalk up Pittsburgh as being one of them. In all the Panthers gave up 715 yards of offense. Pitt’s offense put up 391 yards, including 103 on the ground. So far the Panthers have averaged 21 PPG, while on defense they’ve conceded 37.7. Not a recipie for success, but we think they catch a break against a Yellow Jackets team that will be dealing with a little rust. The Yellow Jackets: Georgia Tech fell to Tennesee 42-41 in OT in its opener. The Yellow Jackets had a 28-14 lead with just two minutes left in the game and then completely fell apart, eventually falling in the extra frame. They then bounced back in their next game against Jacksonville State by a score of 37-10. So far GT averages 39.0 PPG and allows 26.00 PPG, which is ranked 75th overall. The bottom line: Note that Pittsburgh is 2-1 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive SU losses and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 on the road, while Georgia Tech is just 1-2 ATS in its last three following its bye week and only 4-11 ATS in its last 15 against the conference. Grab the points, play on PITTSBURGH. AAA Sports |
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09-21-17 | Temple +18 v. South Florida | Top | 7-43 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASASSIN on Temple. While we’re not going to call for an outright upset, we do definitely expect the talented visiting side to keep this one a lot closer than what Sin City is leading us to believe. The Owls: Temple enters off a 29-14 home win over UMass. QB Logan Marchi was 22 of 37 for 248 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. So far he has nearly 770 yards passing and a 5:0 TD:INT. WR Keith Kirkwood now has 185 receiving yards on the year, while RB Ryquell Armstead had 177 rushing yards through three games. The defense was decent, getting gouged for 377 passing yards, but allowing just 61 rushing yards. Massacusetts was behind most of the game though, so it was forced to air it out. The Bulls: South Florida enters off a 47-23 home victory over Illinois. QB Quinton Flowers was 15 of 27 for 280 yards, four TD’s and one INT. So far he has 680 yards passing and an 8:2 TD:INT. RB Darius Tice had 105 yards on 12 carries. USF looked strong defensively, allowing a total of 354 yards. The bottom line: When these teams met last year, the Owls posted a 46-30 victory. Temple had more turnover in the offseason, so these are different teams essentially. However, we think that the Owls’ high-octane offense can keep them in this one late. As mentioned off the top, we think these teams are more evenly matched than what Sin City is trying to lead everyone to believe. Grab the points, play on TEMPLE. AAA Sports When you think of these two teams, what’s the first thing that comes to mind? Explosive offenses likely isn’t one of them. The reason this total is so low, is because there’s no question that these clubs struggle to put points on the board most nights. In fact, the 49ers have yet to score an offensive TD. The Rams looked good beating the injured Colts, but came back down to Earth against the Redskins at home last weekend. San Francisco was never going to make the playoffs this year, but with a three-game road trip looming, this could be its last/best chance to score a victory to open the season. Essentially, it’s a “do-or-die” scenario for the 49ers tonight. With an added 7 points to the UNDER and to the home side’s spread, this one has all the makings of an easy cash! AAA Sports |
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09-17-17 | Dodgers +1.5 v. Nationals | 1-7 | Loss | -165 | 29 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the LA Dodgers. In a contest which we envision being decided late or even in extra frames, we’re going to lay what we feel to be a very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Hyun-Jin Ryu: Ryu had his last start skipped over. In his previous outing he pitched well enough to win, but suffered an unforunate no-decision after allowing one run off three hits over six innings. Ryu’s numbers are solid across the board, sporting a 3.72 ERA on the road and a 3.58 ERA in all “night” games. Stephen Strasburg: He’s 13-4 with a 2.64 ERA. Strasburg most recently went eight shutout innings in a victory over the Phillies on Sunday. Strasburg has posted 34 straight scoreless innings, but just like the Indians’ 22-game win streak coming to an end the other night, all good things must also eventually come to an end for the Nationals’ hard-throwing right-hander. The bottom line: Regression does seem imminent at some point for Strasburg, but that said, we believe that Ryu can match him inning for inning anyways. And in a scenario like that we think the value swings to the league-leading visiting side. Play on the DODGERS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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09-17-17 | Bills v. Panthers -7 | 3-9 | Loss | -118 | 147 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Carolina Panthers. Carolina smashed San Francisco 23-3 last weekend, while Buffalo pulled away for a closer than expected 21-12 victory over the Jets on Sunday. The Bills looked pretty good defensively, allowing just 214 yards. Clearly the competition level goes up this weekend though. QB Tyrod Taylor was unspectacular by going 16 of 28 for 224 yards, two TD’s and an INT. LeSean McCoy had 110 yards on 22 carries. Panthers’ QB Cam Newton had a shaky first half against the 49ers but then settled down and finished 14 of 25 for 171 yards and two TD’s (one pick.) The tandem of Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Stewart combined for 112 yards. Keep your eyes on Thomas Davis, who had seven tackles (all of the solo variety) as well as a sack. The defense in all had four sacks and an INT. Note that Buffalo is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven on grass, while Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six on grass. We’re not reading too much into the Bills mediocre Week 1 performance. All signs point to a blowout, lay the points, play on the PANTHERS. AAA Sports |
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09-16-17 | Stanford -9.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -115 | 149 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Stanford. Stanford will be looking to take out its frustration on someone tonight after falling 42-24 at USC last weekend. Enter SDSU. The Aztecs are 2-0, but they look primed for a letdown here in our opinion after upsetting Arizona State 30-20 on the road last Saturday. The Cardinal: Stanford smashed Rice in its opener, but was unable to keep pace with high-flying USC last weekend. In all the Cardinal were outgained 623-342. So far Stanford ranks 23rd in the country in scoring though with an average of 43 PPG, while ranked 67th on the defensive side in allowing 24.5. QB Keller Chryst has 425 yards and four TD’s, while RB Bryce Love has 340 rushing yards and two scores. The Aztecs: SDSU held a slim 352-342 yardage advantage over Arizona State last Saturday. So far the Aztecs are ranked 54th overall in scoring with 34 PPG, while ranked 43rd in allowing 18.5. QB Christian Chapman has 293 yards, three TD’s and one INT. Rashaad Penny has 413 yards on the ground and three TD’s. The bottom line: Note that Stanford is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 following a SU loss, while SDSU is just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 against the Pac-12. The Cardinal don’t really have to respect the pass today, so can load the box to slow down Penny. We look for STANFORD to ride its superior defensive play to a decisive victory. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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09-16-17 | Troy -5.5 v. New Mexico State | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 146 h 29 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ART OF WAR on Troy. Both teams are 1-1 SU, but Troy is 0-2 ATS, while New Mexico State is 2-0 ATS. The Trojans enter off a 34-7 home win over Alabama State, while New Mexico State upset in-state rival New Mexico 30-28 on the road last weekend. When these teams met last year, it was Troy that ran away with a 52-6 victory. While we’re not expecting such a lop-sided destruction this season, we still believe Troy will win this one handily. Troy: Last week the Trojans had a 605-165 yardage advantage, including five TD’s on the ground. So far Troy averages 23.5 PPG, while allowing just 15.5. QB Brandon Silvers has 484 yards, no TD’s and two picks. But Troy is clearly built around the run, keep your eyes on Jamarius Henderson, who leads the way with 144 yards and two TD’s so far this year. New Mexico State: The Aggies actually held a 30-5 lead after three quarters last week, before then imploding and giving up 23 points in the fourth quarter, fortunate to stop a potential game-tying two point conversion with a minute to play. New Mexico State would win the yardage battle 500-430. The Aggies average 30.5 PPG and allow 32.5. QB Tyler Rogers has 799 yards, seven TD’s and three iNT’s. Larry Rose III has 159 yards rushing to lead the team. The bottom line: It’s interesting to note that Troy is 5-3 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of September, while New Mexico State is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven games played in September. Both offenses are effective, but we feel that the Trojans’ superior defense will prove to be the difference maker once it’s all said and done as we look for New Mexico State to come out flat after its big win last week. Play on TROY. AAA Sports |
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09-16-17 | Notre Dame v. Boston College +14.5 | 49-20 | Loss | -105 | 142 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG TIGER on Boston College. Both teams come into this one at 1-1 SU, but Notre Dame is 1-1 ATS, while BC is 0-2 ATS. The Irish come in off a deflating 20-19 home loss to Georgia, while Boston College was routed 34-10 at home by Wake Forest. The Fighting Irish: Notre Dame came out on the short end of the stick last week, giving up just 332 yards of total offense to the Bulldogs. However, Georgia would post 191 yards on the ground. The Irish put up just 266 yards of total offense last week as QB Brandon Wimbush was just 19 of 39 for 211 yards, with no INT’s or TD’s. The Eagles: BC returned 15 starters back from last year’s team and started the 2017/18 campaign with a 23-20 win over Northern Illinois. The Eagles then stumbled in their next one to Wake Forest. BC posted just 305 yards of total offense in that one. Anthony Brown had a poor game under center, going 11 of 29 for 119 yards, a TD and three INT’s. Darius Wade entered the game and he was seven of 12 for 44 yards. The defense was stout though in allowing only 309 yards to the Demon Deacons. The bottom line: Note that Notre Dame is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against the ACC and only 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road favorite, while Boston College is 6-4 ATS in its last ten non-conference games. With a road game at Michigan State next week, there’s no doubt that this one sets up as a classic “trap” for the Irish. Grab as many points as you can, play on BOSTON COLLEGE. AAA Sports |
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09-14-17 | New Mexico +15 v. Boise State | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 99 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on New Mexico. New Mexico enters off a tough 30-28 home loss to a difficult New Mexico State team at home, while Boise State collapsed in the second half of its game against Washington State, eventually succumbing 47-44 in OT. Note that the Lobos play with revenge here after falling 49-21 at home to the Broncos last season. New Mexico: The Lobos were actually down 30-5 at the start of the fourth quarter, but alas their come back bid came up a bit short. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting New Mexico to carry over that momentum/confidence to this one. QB Tevaka Tuioti came in late and threw for 151 yards and two TD’s. The Lobos also had 176 yards on the ground, led by Jay Griffin IV with 64 and a TD. The defense looked poor, but will catch a small repreive in facing what should be a gassed Broncos side working on the short week. Boise State: Over the final ten minutes the Broncos allowed 21 unanswered points and then eventually lost in overtime to Washington State. QB Brett Rypien was injured, so Montell Cozart would take over and he’d go for 161 yards, two TD’s and an INT. In all the Broncos allowed 455 yards on defense, so the Lobos are going to have their chances here today as well. The bottom line: Rypien is a game time decision here. Note that New Mexico is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog, while Boise State is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 at home and only 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a favorite of 10 1/2 to 21 points. Grab as many points as you can, play on NEW MEXICO. AAA Sports |
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09-13-17 | A's v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Boston Red Sox on the RUN-LINE. We had a play on Boston yesterday in its big 11-1 win over the A’s and suffice it to say, we’re expecting another blowout here as well. Jharel Cotton: He’s 7-10 with a 5.82 ERA. Cotton gave up seven runs off seven hits, including three dingers, over five innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Astros on Friday. Cotton has now been rocked for 12 home runs over his last six starts for a deplorable 3.2 HR/9 over that span (note that he’s 1-7 with an 8.00 ERA in all “night” games this year.) Doug Fister: He’s 5-7 with a 3.91 ERA. Fister comes in off a gem against Toronto on Wednesday, giving up four hits while striking out nine over seven scoreless innings of work. Fister has a 1.50 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over his last four starts and enjoys a couple exrta days off before making this start. The bottom line: Note that Oakland is just 1-3 (-2 units) in its last four after allowing ten runs or more, while Boston is 3-1 (+1.7 units) in its last four after scoring ten runs or more. We like Fister to continue his blazing streak of superior plays and for the home side to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Play on the RED SOX on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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09-11-17 | Chargers v. Broncos -3 | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 40 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Denver Broncos. We’ve always felt that the addage “defense wins championships,” pertained more to the gridiron than any other sport. While nothing is on the line except a Week 1 win or loss, we still feel that the Broncos’ elite defense will prove to be the main story-line in tomorrow’s summaries. LA: A new city, building and head coach. Same old QB in Philip Rivers though. Rivers will be handing off to one of the best RB’s in the league in Melvin Gordon and the offense should once again be among the league leaders on that side of the ball. Defense was a major issue last year though, giving up an average of 26.4 PPG. Denver: The defense was fourth in points allowed last year and first against the pass in allowing only 185.8 YPG through the air. LA’s offense revolves around the pass, which doesn’t look too good on the road at Mile High tonight. The team used its top draft picks on the defensive side of the ball as well, so the unit is stacked. The offense is once again a question mark, but both Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch will be given the green light to air it out tonight against the Chargers’ suspect secondary. The bottom line: Note that LA is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 in games where the line is set between +3 and -3, while Denver is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 in the same position. Play on the BRONCOS. AAA Sports |
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09-10-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Packers | 9-17 | Loss | -104 | 173 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Seattle Seahawks. We think that Russell Wilson is on par with Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has difficulties against good defensive teams, especially like the Seahawks who are so adept at getting after the opposing QB. Both teams lost to Atlanta in the playoffs last year, but Seattle made more significant moves in the offseason and we think it’s definitely improved. Note that Seattle sent WR Jermaine Kearse to the Jets for DL Sheldon Richardson. Seattle also plays with double revenge here after dropping the last two in the series. In a contest which we see coming down to the wire, we’re going to grab the points. Play on the SEAHAWKS. AAA Sports |
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09-10-17 | Colts v. Rams +3 | 9-46 | Win | 100 | 172 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Rams. The Colts are expected be without starting QB Andrew Luck (and if he did play, clearly he’ll be far from 100%.) Luck had a huge 2016 and Scott Tolzien is no Andrew Luck. The Colts run game is suspect as well. While the offense averaged 25.7 PPG last year, the defense allowed 24.5 and all early signs point to the unit being a weak point this year as well. The Rams will be looking for Jared Goff to make a big step forward this season. Goff doesn’t instill much confidence, but that said we certainly expect him to outduel the big question mark that is Scott Tolzien. WR Sammy Watkins will help Goff out, and RB Todd Gurley will also be leaned upon. Note that Indianapolis is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine “Week 1” games, while LA is 2-1 ATS in its last three as a home fav in the +3 to PICK range. We look for the RAMS to take advantage of a “Luck-“less Colts side. AAA Sports |
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09-10-17 | Raiders v. Titans +1 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -110 | 2184 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* WEEK 1 TOP EARLY PLAY on the Tennessee Titans. There is of course an inherent risk when releasing a play weeks/months ahead of time, but in this case, we feel that Tennessee is the correct call in this Week 1 matchup. Oakland seems like a “trendy” pick in Week 1 after Derek Carr’s break out season. But Carr would break his leg in Week 15 last year and the Raiders would then predictably fall in the Wildcard round. Many think the signing of RB Marshawn Lynch will take Oakland to the next level, but we’re not convinced. Lynch is a year removed from the NFL and in his final season with the Seahawks, was visibly set back with nagging injuries. Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota is in our opinion, just as good as Carr in every respect. We also think the Titans have a big advantage in the RB department, with DeMarco Muarry, Derrick Henry and newcomer Khalfani Muhammad. Oakland is just 2-6 in Week 1 since 2009 and all signs point to another letdown here. Play on TENNESSEE. AAA Sports |
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09-10-17 | Cardinals v. Lions +1.5 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 169 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Detroit Lions. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: As note that Arizona is just 8-13 ATS in its last 21 “dome games,” while Detroit is 12-9 ATS in its last 21 dome contests. The bottom line: For us this one comes down to the starting QB’s. We simply have no faith in aging QB Carson Palmer. The correct call here is on Matt Stafford. The Lions made some key offseason moves that have gone under the radar as well, including acquiring CB DJ Hayden and DE Cornelius Washington. We think Stafford will outplay Palmer and we look for the LIONS underrated defense to be a big difference maker as well. AAA Sports |
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09-10-17 | Ravens +3 v. Bengals | 20-0 | Win | 100 | 100 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Baltimore Ravens. Both teams have issues. We simply feel that Baltmore’s defense is the most solid unit on the field of play today and we look for it to be a difference maker once it’s all said and done. Baltimore: The Ravens were 4-0 in the preseason, but played the entire warmup without starting QB Joe Flacco. Flacco though is back for this one, which we think is a good thing. Flacco is out for redemption this year after an “off season.” He’ll benefit from the additions of RB Danny Woodhead and WR Jeremy Maclin. But as mentioned off the top, we think Baltimore’s defense can be a real difference maker today. Last year it ranked seventh overall and ninth in points allowed. Cincinnati: CB Adam Jones and LB Vontaze Burfict are both suspended for this one. That’s a significant loss obviously. The only big addition the team made was LB Kevin Minter. The Bengals would lose LT Andrew Whitworth in free agency, which is clearly significant. QB Andy Dalton was sacked 41 times last year. He has plenty of weapons and Cincinnati should be contending in the division once it’s all said and done. One clear weak point was the defense, ranked 17th overall in allowing 350.8 YPG. The bottom line: We think these teams are even in all phases except defensively. Value swings to the dog, play on BALTIMORE. AAA Sports |
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09-09-17 | San Diego State v. Arizona State -3 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 133 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State. San Diego State beat UC Davis 34-17 last weekend, while Arizona State rallied for a 37-31 win over New Mexico State. Aztecs: SDSU has just 11 starters back from a team which went 11-3 last year, including a 34-10 victory over Houston in the LV Bowl. The ground game notched 276 yards against the lowly Aggies last week. Rashaad Penny had 197 yards and two TD’s on 21 carries. QB Christian Chapman was 16 of 21 for 221 yards and two TD’s. The defense looked good, not spectacular and will now clearly have its hands full against the big arm of ASU QB Manny Wilikins, who had 300 yards against the Aggies last week. Sun Devils: New Mexico State is a damn good team, filled with veteran experience. Last week the offense put up 400 yards, including 331 through the air. Wilkins was 22 of 27 for 300 yards and two TD’s. WR John Humphrey had a big day with 123 yards on seven receptions. ASU’s weakness last year was its defense and that once again appears to be the case this season. The bottom line: But Arizona State catches a break this week facing the run heavy offense of the Aztecs. The secondary is the weak point. SDSU has a game at home against Stanford next weekend, before then starting the conference part of its schedule with a tough one on the road against Air Force. All signs point to the visitors getting caught “looking ahead” to that gruelling part of their schedule. A great situational play, play on the SUN DEVILS. AAA Sports |
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09-09-17 | Minnesota +1 v. Oregon State | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 132 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Minnesota. Minnesota beat Oregon State at home 30-23 last year and we expect the Golden Gophers to handle their business in this one as well. Minnesota comes in off a 17-7 win at home over Buffalo, while the Beavers prevailed 35-32 over FCS Portland on Saturday. Minnesota: The Golden Gophers didn’t look fantasic, but still got the opening win for new coach PJ Fleck. QB Conor Rhoda had just one career start heading into that one, but he’d go 12 of 21 for 176 yards. Demry Croft also saw time under center and he was 7 for 11 for 63 yards and rushed for an additional 32. In all the Gophers rushed for 169 yards. Defensively Minnesota looked sharp, holding the Bulls to just 51 rushing yards on 22 carries. Oregon State: The Beavers look horrible defensively once again this year. Last season they gave up 30.5 PPG and so far they allowed 58 to Colorado State in their opener and then 32 to lowly Portland State last weekend. Jake Luton had 235 yards, a TD and one pick last week. But the poor defensive play was the reason the team almost fell to 0-2, as the unit would allow an FCS club to roll up 515 total yards of offense. The bottom line: Note that Minnesota is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 when playing the role of underdog, while Oregon State is just 2-4 ATS in its last six when playing the role of favorite. Play on MINNESOTA. AAA Sports |
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09-09-17 | Pittsburgh v. Penn State -19 | 14-33 | Push | 0 | 125 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* REVENGE ASSASSIN on Penn State. Suffice it to say we’re expecting a beatdown from start to finish in this one. Pittsburgh won 28-21 over Youngstown State in OT, while Penn State crushed Akron 52-0 in Week 1. Note that the Nittany Lions play with revenge after falling to the Panthers 42-39 last year. Pittsburgh: The Panthers had a 21-0 lead last weekend and fell apart at home to lowly Youngstown State, needing an extra frame to get the job done. QB Max Browne had 140 yards and one TD. RB Qadree Oilison was injured and he’s questionable for this game (if he does play, clearly he wont be at 100%.) Pittsburgh’s defense struggled as well, conceding 418 total yards, including 21 straight points in the second half and allowing Youngstown State to connect on 2 for 2 on fourth downs. Penn State: The Nittany Lions barely broke a sweat in their 52-0 annihilation of the Zips. QB Trace McSorely was 18 of 25 for 280 yards with two TD’s and one INT. Last year McSorely had over 3,600 yards and a 29:8 TD:INT ratio. RB Saquon Barkley had 172 yards. The defense was downright dominant as well, holding Akron to just 159 total yards. The bottom line: Note that Pittsburgh is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against the Big Ten and only 2-12 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games, while Penn State is 2-1 ATS in its last three in trying to revenge a loss to an opponent in which it gave up 42 points or more too. Pittsburgh has QB confidence issues and RB Oilison is injured. The Pitt defense struggled mightily in the second half of its win over Akron as well and it now faces one of the most prolific offenses and opportunistic defenses that it’ll see all season. All signs point to a rout, play on PENN STATE. AAA Sports |
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09-09-17 | San Jose State v. Texas -28 | 0-56 | Win | 100 | 125 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 9* ART OF WAR on Texas. San Jose State comes in off a 20-point home loss to South Florida, while Texas fell 51-41 at home to Maryland last weekend. Tom Herman didn’t start off the year he way he expected as head coach for the Longhorns, so he’ll now be leaning on his team to rebound in a big way on Saturday afternoon. The Spartans: San Jose State allowed the Bulls to post 548 yards of total offense last week, including 315 on the ground. Last year it was ranked 122nd in the nation against the run, so it would appear as if the unit is still a disaster this season. The offense averaged just 24.4 PPG last year and was only able to put up 22 against the Bulls. The Longhorns: Herman had seven starters back on offense and ten back on defense for his new team, but clearly he’ll be looking for better results this evening. The offense looked good in posting 473 yards of offense, including 375 through the air with Shane Buechele going 34 of 52 for 375 yards and two TD’s. The defense was atrocious, allowing the Terps to pile up 482 yards. The bottom line: Thankfully the Longhorns catch a break this week in facing the lowly Spartans. Note that San Jose State is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven following an ATS victory, while Texas is still 7-3 ATS in its last ten in front of the home town crowd. We like the LONGHORNS’ to play much better defensively this week and we look for them them to comfortably pull away down the stretch. AAA Sports |
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09-09-17 | Louisville -8 v. North Carolina | 47-35 | Win | 100 | 122 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG TIGER on Louisville. Louisville beat Purdue 35-28 in Week 1, while UNC lost 35-30 to Cal at home last weekend. The Cardinals: Louisville didn’t look very good defensively and it also coughed up three turnovers which led to its opener against the Boilersmakers be a lot closer than it would have been. Note that the Cardinals did win the yardage battle by a convincing 524-344 margin. QB Lamar Jackson was firing on cylinders, going 30 of 46 for 378 yards plus two scores as well as running for 107 yards as well. The Tar Heels: UNC looks primed for classic letdown in our opinion after falling to the Golden Bears at home last week as the team led 24-21 after thee quarters. UNC lost the yardage battle 469-440. Poor QB play can be blamed, as LSU transfer Brandon Harris was just 7 of 16 for 60 yards and two picks. Chass Surratt was better at 18 of 28 for 161 yards and a score. The bottom line: Louisville is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of September, while UNC is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine in September. If the Tar Heels struggled with a rookie QB, how are they going to stop the reigning Heisman Trophy Winner? We’re expecting Louisville to clean up its sloppy play and to pull away down the stretch for the convincing ATS victory. Play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs v. Patriots -8 | 42-27 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 18 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the New England Patriots. We think that Tom Brady and the Patriots send a message to the league tonight. These teams met in the playoffs and the Pats won 27-20. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting a much bigger final discrepancy this evening. Kansas City: The Chiefs lost top RB Spencer Ware in the third preseason game to a knee injury. that means that Charcandrick West has some pretty big shoes to fill. The pressure falls onto QB Alex Smith, so expect the home side to put a ton of pressure on the veteran tonight. Note that Smith had just 3,502 years, 15 TD’s and eight INT’s last year. KC struggled against the run last year, allowing 121.1 YPG. New England: The Pats are without WR Julian Edelman, but an offseason acquistion of Brandin Cooks from New Orleans will definitely help fill the void. Also expect to see a lot of Danny Amendola this evening. Last year QB Tom Brady had 28 TD’s and just two INT’s, despite missing the first four games. The Pats also added WR Phillip Dorsett and will be excited to have a 100% healthy Rob Gronkowski on the field of play as well. As good as the offense was last year, New England was likely even better defensively, ranked sixth overall in allowing 326.4 YPG. The bottom line: We think that the Chiefs are just too one-dimensional offensively to open the season. Look for Brady and company to take advantage. Play on the PATRIOTS. AAA Sports |
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09-03-17 | West Virginia +5 v. Virginia Tech | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on West Virginia. This is a neutral site affair, being played at Fed Ex Field. West Virginia: It was 9-3 last year and 7-2 in th Big 12. The Mountaineers played in the Russell Atheltic Bowl and fell 31-14 to Miami Florida. WVU head coach Dana Holgorsen is back for his seventh year. Will Grier is the new QB, a transfer from Florida who was suspended in 2015 for PED’s (previous to that though Grier led Gators to 6-0 record.) RB Justin Crawford is back though and he had 1,184 yards and four TD’s last year. Virginia Tech: The Hokies finished 10-4, losing 42-35 to Clemson in the ACC Championship game, before then bouncing back with a 35-34 win over Arkansas in the Belk Bowl. Big question marks at QB with redshirt freshman Josh Jackson, who has big shoes to fill with Jerod Evans gone. RB Travon McMillan is back after finishing with 671 yards and seven scores last year. The bottom line: While he hasn’t played since 2015, we think Grier’s experience will prove invaluable in this spot and prove to be the difference maker. Grab as many points as you can, play on WEST VIRGINIA. AAA Sports |
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09-02-17 | Louisville v. Purdue +26.5 | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 130 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Purdue. This is a great “situational” play in our opinion, as we’re expecting the Cardinals to “look past” their lowly opponent tonight to a much more important conference matchup on the road at UNC next weekend. Louisville: The Cardinals were 9-4 overall last year and 7-1 in the ACC, falling 29-9 to LSU in the Citrus Bowl. QB Lamar Jackson had 3,543 passing yards, alowing with a 30:9 TD:INT ratio and also posted 21 rushing TD’s, ultimately going on to win the Heisman. But Jackson only has three other starters returning to his offense from last year. The defensive line also has more questions than answers right now with many holes to fill. Despite the issues that Louisville must overcome, the team is once again expected to among the nation’s leaders on both sides of the ball. Purdue: The Boilermakers were 3-9 last season and had a 1-8 record in league action. Purdue is expected to be a lot better thi syear with several key players returning, including QB David Blough, who had 3,353 yards and a 25:21 TD:INT ratio. Purdue also returns all of its RB’s, including Markell Jones, who had 616 yards last year. The defense was a major issue last year, but the unit returns several starters as well. The bottom line: We like Blough to keep this one respectable. Grab as many points as you can, play on the BOILERMAKERS. AAA Sports |
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09-02-17 | Temple +18 v. Notre Dame | 16-49 | Loss | -115 | 126 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on Temple. The Owls have a new coach and a bunch of new faces. The Irish went 3-9 last year. When these teams met in 2015, Notre Dame came away with the 24-20 victory. Temple: Geoff Collins takes over as head coach for the Owls and he inherits a team which returns only ten starters, including just four on the defensive side. QB duties now fall to Anthony Russo, who does have six of his top seven ball carriers back. The Owls dominated defensively last year and are expected to take a huge step back with so many new faces. The defensive line is the weak point, but the secondary is still expected to be pretty decent. Notre Dame: 15 starters are back, so Brian Kelly’s team will obviously be better than it was last year. QB Brandon Wimbush is being predicted by some to be better than DeShone Kizer. The run game returns Josh Adams, who had 933 yards and five TD’s. last year. The offense would go on to average 30.9 PPG last season and should once again near that mark this time around. The defense allowed 27.8 PPG and with just six starters returning, we think the book is still out on the unit. The bottom line: We aren’t calling for an outright upset, but we think that Collins will have his new team ready to compete. Grab as many points as you can, play on TEMPLE. AAA Sports |
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09-01-17 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Padres | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -145 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE GAME OF THE YEAR on the LA Dodgers. After getting swept on the road in Arizona, we look for the Dodgers to bounce back in fine fashion tonight with their ace finally back on the mound tonight. Clayton Kershaw: He’s 15-2 with a 2.04 ERA. Although he’ll be on a pitch count on his first start back, we believe his time in the game will be more than enough to secure a big early lead for the now razor focused visiting side. The sweep at the hands of the D-Backs was humbling to say the least. Kershaw was strong in his only start in Triple-A, striking out eight and giving up one run over five innings. Dinelson Lamet: He’s 7-5 with a 4.60 ERA. Lamet comes in off a strong performance against the Marlins on Saturay, allowing one run over six innings of work, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. Lamet has admittedly looked a lot better of late, but we simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The bottom line: Note that LA is 19-11 (+3.3 units) in its last 30 after three or more consecutive losses, while San Diego is just 3-5 (-1 units) this year after shutting out its opponent. Play on the DODGERS RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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09-01-17 | Boston College v. Northern Illinois +3.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 108 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Northern Illinois. BC was 7-6 last year, winning three straight to end the season including defeating Maryland 36-30 in the Quicken Lane Bowl. NIU was just 5-7 and will be eager to return to a bowl this season. BC averaged only 20.4 PPG last year, but the team led the nation in many defensive categories. The Huskies started four different QB’s last year, but still managed to post 30.5 PPG. The defense was a weak point, but clearly the unit catches a break in facing BC’s vanilla offense. While we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we believe NIU’s offense will at the very least keep this one close enough to cover with the spread. AAA Sports |
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09-01-17 | Colorado State v. Colorado -5 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 107 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Colorado. These rivals aren’t in the same conference, but they play every year, normally very early in the season. Colorado State rolled to an impressive 58-27 win over Oregon State on Saturday, but we think it’ll have a predictable letdown here on the short week. Colorado is coming off a great year, going 10-4 overall and had no issues dispatching the Rams last year with a 44-7 victory. The Buffs have a new QB in Steven Montez this season after getting a couple of starts last year. We like COLORADO to take advantage of a contented Colorado State team which has to play a tough one on the road on the short week. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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09-01-17 | Washington v. Rutgers +30.5 | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 107 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Rutgers. We think that Rutgers can comfortably sneak in through the back door with the large spread it’s been afforded in this one. Washington: The Huskies made it into the CFB playoffs last year with an 11-1 record. Washington returns most of that same team this season and it is once again expected to contend for the title in 2017/18. The offense put up 41.8 PPG. QB Jake Browning had 3,430 yards. The defense gave up just 17.7 PPG. Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights were just 2-10 last year. Rutgers has a new QB in Louisville transfer Kyle Bolin. Top RB Robert Martin is back. Two of the Scarlet Knights top 3 receivers are back as well. The defense gave up 37.5 PPG, but the team returns ten of its top 13 tacklers, which includes eight starters. The bottom line: The Huskies have a completely vanilla schedule to open up their non-conference schedule, with games against Montanta and Fresno before then back-to-back conference contests on the road at Colorado and Oregon State. Washington has an opportunity to fine tune things over the first few games, so we think this is a perfect spot to play against it. Grab as many points as you can, play on RUTGERS. AAA Sports |
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08-31-17 | New Mexico State v. Arizona State -23.5 | 31-37 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER BLOWOUT on Arizona State. Both teams struggled last year. Some may think that the Aggies have a shot at keeping this one close, but we believe the Sun Devils will be prepared and we expect them to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. New Mexico State: The Aggies won just three games last year. New Mexico State returns 44 lettermen and 16 starters, so they’re expected to be much better all around this year. The defense was ranked 121st by giving up 38.8 PPG, so it’s hard to imagine the unit being worse this season. QB Tyler Rogers had 2,603 yards, 16 TD’s and 12 INT’s last year. RB Larry Rose is expected to have a big campaign, he finished with 865 yards and four TD’s. Arizona State: The Sun Devils were just 5-7 last year, missing a bowl for the first time since 2010. 13 starters are back this season. The offense was a bright spot, averaging 33.3 PPG and with seven starters returning, including QB Manny Wilkins, it will once again be a strength of the team this year. The run game also looks solid with Demario Richard and Kalen Ballage. The defense gave up 39.8 PPG last season, but the unit returns six starters this year and the group is expected to make big strides. The bottom line: We think that Wilkins is the big difference maker tonight. Lay the points with confidence, play on the SUN DEVILS. AAA Sports |
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08-31-17 | UL-Monroe v. Memphis -27 | Top | 29-37 | Loss | -110 | 204 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT SIDE OF THE MONTH on Memphis. The Warhawks struggled on the defensive side of the ball last year, an area which is also expected to be a weak point this season. And that doesn’t bode well against the up-tempo Tigers, who we foresee pulling away down the stretch for a comfortable ATS cover. Louisiana Monroe: The Warhawks were just 4-8 last year and failed to qualify for a bowl. UL Monroe was disastrous on the defensive side of the ball last year, allowing at least 34 points in every game, with four games seeing the opposition put up at least 51. QB Garrett Smith finished with 1,237 yards, nine TD’s and seven INT’s. Memphis: The Tigers were 8-5 and then lost 51-31 to Western Kentucky in the Boca Raton Bowl. Memphis is led by Riley Ferguson, who had 3,698 yards, 32 TD’s and ten INT’s. Ferguson is back for his senior year and we think he’ll be the big difference maker tonight. The offense also features a strong run game with Darrell Henderson and Patrick Taylor Jr. The bottom line: Note that Louisiana Monroe is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games in August, while Memphis is 16-6-1 ATS in its last 23 non-conference contests. All signs point to a rout from start to finish, lay the points with confidence, play on MEMPHIS. AAA Sports |
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08-31-17 | Florida International v. Central Florida -17 | 17-61 | Win | 100 | 81 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on Central Florida. The road team might be 4-0 ATS the L4 in this series, but we think that trend ends tonight. FIU: The Golden Panthers have a new head coach in Butch Davis. The offense returns seven starters, including QB Alex McGough. McGough was extremely mediocre last year, but the major concern on that side of the ball is along the offensive line. The offense averages just 24.0 PPG last year. The defense was even worse though, giving up an average of 34.8 PPG. The defense is expected to make some strides with nine starters returning from last season. Despite that though the line and secondary are still projected to be among the worst in the conference. UCF: The Knights finished 6-7 last year, after finishing 0-12 in 2015. Head coach Scott Frost’s team would go on to lose to Arkansas State 31-13 in the Cure Bowl. After averaging only 13.9 PPG in 2015, UFC exploded for 28.8 last season and the offense should be even better this year with nine starters returning. QB McKenzie Milton is back to direct the offense and he has two of his top three RB’s returning as well. The defense improved dramatically last season from 2015, but with just four starters returning, the unit could take a step back this year. Fortunately the defense catches a break facing FIU’s vanilla offense. The bottom line: Still too many questions than answers for FIU (on both sides of the ball.) UCF isn’t going to be challenging for the conference crown, but another six-win regular season is in the cards. And here’s the perfect opponent to get things rolling. Lay the points, play on CENTRAL FLORIDA. AAA Sports |
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08-27-17 | Bears +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Chicago Bears. While we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we’re going to grab the points in a contest which we see being decided late. Tennessee comes in at 1-1. So too does Chicago. But we ultimately feel that the difference maker today will be Chicago’s potential regular season starting QB Mitch Trubisky, who is so far 18 for 25 for 166 yards, one TD and no INT’s thus far. Trubisky is expected to get most of the playing time today, which we feel will be a significant factor. Tennessee is also expected to give its starting QB Marcus Mariota plenty of time today, but he’s without his top two receivers in Corey Davis and Eric Decker. The Titans beat Carolina 34-27 last week and we think they’ll be more focused on trying to establish the run today (so as to limit any potential and completely unnecessary injury, as Mariota is coming back from major leg injury), as well as putting a much greater emphasis on the defensive side of the ball after last week’s near collapse after having a large early lead. This one has the feeling of more of a “chess match” than a “track meet,” where field position becomes critical in the final outcome. And in a scenario like that, we’re grabbing the points. Play on the BEARS. AAA Sports |
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08-26-17 | Rice v. Stanford -31 | Top | 7-62 | Win | 100 | 128 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Stanford. This game is being played in Sydney Australia. The Cardinal have some big holes to fill this year, but they have plenty of young talent in key positions, as well as plenty of veteran leadership on both sides of the line to fall back on. The Cardinal were 10-3 last year and then beat UNC in the Sun Bowl. Rice was just 3-9 overall. These teams actually met on November 26th last year and Stanford scored the 41-17 victory. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting a much bigger rout here today. Stanford turns to QB Keller Chryst, who had 905 yards and ten TD’s last season. Replacing RB Christian McCaffrey won’t be easy, but Bryce Love will try, he ran 112 times for 779 yards and three TD’s last year. The strength of Stanford though lies on both the offensive and defensive lines. And that doesn’t bode well for the undersized Owls, who were held to 17 points or less in half their games last season. The Rice defense struggled as well, with the opposition posting 41 points or more seven times. Note that the Owls also start a redshirt freshman at QB today in Sam Glaseman (also note that Stanford is 7-2 ATS in its last nine neutral field affairs.) Rice already has more questions than answers as we head into the season, which lines up perfectly for Stanford. Look for Chryst and company to shake off some early jitters/rust and pull away down the stretch for the comforable ATS cover. Play on the CARDINAL. AAA Sports |
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08-26-17 | Raiders +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Oakland Raiders. While we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the determined visiting side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with the handful of points that it’s been afforded in this one. Starters are going to see most of the action today, however, backups and wannabe’s will also be seeing considerable time. Oakland though has yet to taste victory in the preseason (0-2), while Dallas is already 2-1. We feel the Raiders will have something to prove tonight as they look to get off the schneid. The Cowboys though won’t be as desperate and would really love to avoid any significant injuries more than anything else at this point. As mentioned off the top, we wouldn’t be surprised by an outright victory, but in the end we’re going to grab the points. Play on the RAIDERS. AAA Sports |
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08-26-17 | Hawaii v. UMass | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 124 h 12 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Hawaii. Hawaii was 7-7 last year, while UMass was just 2-10, which included a season-ending loss to the Warriors. Hawaii would pull away for the 46-40 win over the Minutemen on Thanksgiving weekend last year as Warriors’ QB Dru Brown had 311 yards, five TD’s and no INT’s. Hawaii also posted 168 yards on the ground in that one. Brown is once again back under center and he has a strong group of supporting cast offensive starters around him. UMass returns seven offensive starters, including QB Andrew Ford, who played half of last year as the starter, going for 2,655 yards with 26 TD’s and 14 INT’s. However, Ford may have to split time today with Ross Comis, who had 63 passes last year, finishing with one TD and one INT. We think Hawaii has the advantage at the QB position and we believe the Warriors depth and experience on the defensive side will prove to be a big factor in the final outcome of this one as well. We expect Brown to have another big game and lead HAWAII to a convincing victory once it’s all said and done. AAA Sports |
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08-26-17 | Oregon State +4 v. Colorado State | 27-58 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Oregon State. Oregon State was 4-8 last year and 3-6 in conference, while Colorado State was 7-6 and 5-3 in conference play (lost in the Arizona Bowl.) The Beavers struggled last year, but there were some flashes of brilliance and the team is expected to build off its positives. RB Ryan Nall had 951 yards and 13 TD’s last year. Jake Luton has won the starting QB job after a strong summer camp. Oregon State also returns many of its defensive starters, who will benefit greatly with a year of experience under their belts. The pressure is on Colorado State in our opinion. The Rams return several starters on both sides of the ball, including QB Nick Stevens who has 1,900 yards passing with a 19/5 TD/INT ratio. CSU was decent defensively, allowing 30.4 PPG last year (Oregeon State allowed 31.2.) We like Luton to fly under the radar here and have a big game and while we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on OREGON STATE. AAA Sports |
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08-21-17 | Everton v. Manchester City -1.5 | 1-1 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOWOUT on Manchester City at -1.5 -118. We think that Everton will once again have a hard-time scoring this week and we look for the home side to take advantage and pad its lead late. Manchester City had to work harder than expected in its opening win over Brighton, but Sergio Aguero would break the tie in the 70th minute, en route to the eventual 2-0 decision. Everton managed a narrow 1-0 victory against Stoke City off the foot of newcomer Wayne Rooney. City will be extra motivated here as well after Everton remained unbeaten in two matchups last year, winning 4-0 at home and then drawing 1-1 at the Etihad (Manchester City missed two penalties in that one.) Note though that Everton hasn’t won at Etihad since 2010, losing four and drawing three in that span. City lost at home only once last year, but averaged under two goals per game. Look for Pep Guardiola’s team to start the 2017 home campaign off with a much better all around effort. Lay the 1.5 goals for the near pick-em price. AAA Sports |
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08-20-17 | Saints +3 v. Chargers | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 122 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the New Orleans Saints. New Orleans is 0-1 SU/ATS after falling 20-14 at Cleveland in Week 1, while LA is also 0-1 SU/ATS after getting crushed 48-17 by Seattle last weekend. It’s impossible to go into precise player matchups in the preseason, as not even the head coaches know for sure how long starters and backups will play in each game. We’re primarily a stat and situationally based handicapping service anyways, so an approach like this is natural to us. Ultimately we think the Chargers get caught looking ahead to their Week 3 matchup against their new cross city rival, the LA Rams. It’s a weird dynamic for both teams and it’s a situation which we believe shouldn’t be overlooked this weekend either. It’s a perfect spot for New Orleans to bounce back in and then go back home for its Week 3 dress rehearsal against the Texans. While we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the SAINTS. AAA Sports |
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08-19-17 | Packers v. Redskins -3 | 21-17 | Loss | -125 | 33 h 52 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Redskins. The Packers are 1-0 SU/ATS to open the preseason, while the Redskins are 0-1 SU/ATS. t’s impossible to go into precise player matchups in the preseason, as not even the head coaches know for sure how long starters and backups will play in each game. We’re primarily a stat and situationally based handicapping service anyways, so an approach like this is natural to us. With a win under their belts we think the the Packers simply go through the motions today as they look to avoid any serious injuries to their starters, but also to backups and wannabe’s as everyone gets prepared for the all important Week 3 “dress rehearsal.” Washington on the other hand will be much more motivated here after its embarrassing 23-3 loss to Baltimore on the road last week. This one simply means more to the REDSKINS. AAA Sports |
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08-19-17 | Chiefs -2.5 v. Bengals | 30-12 | Win | 100 | 33 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the KC Chiefs. Kansas City is 0-1 SU/ATS and Cincinnati is 1-0 SU/ATS. It’s impossible to go into precise player matchups in the preseason, as not even the head coaches know for sure how long starters and backups will play in each game. We’re primarily a stat and situationally based handicapping service anyways, so an approach like this is natural to us. With a win under their belts we think the Bengals simply go through the motions today as they already start to focus on the all important Week 3 “dress rehearsal.” The Chiefs on the other hand will be the more motivated side after falling 27-17 to the 49ers last week. And to us, this is the difference maker. This one means more to the CHIEFS. AAA Sports |
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08-19-17 | Panthers v. Titans -3 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Tennessee Titans. Carolina is 1-0 SU/ATS and Tennessee is 0-1 SU/ATS. It’s impossible to go into precise player matchups in the preseason, as not even the head coaches know for sure how long starters and backups will play in each game. We’re primarily a stat and situationally based handicapping service anyways, so an approach like this is natural to us. With a win under their belts, we think the Panthers simply go through the motions today to avoid injury and get ready for the critical Week 3 “dress rehearsal.” Tennessee on the other hand really needs to get off the schneid with a better all around performance after a 7-3 loss to the Jets last week. We like the more motivated home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS victory. Play on the TITANS. AAA Sports |
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08-13-17 | Seahawks +2 v. Chargers | Top | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 199 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Seattle Seahawks. The San Diego Chargers are now the LA Chargers. It’s been a weird offseason for veteran QB Philip Rivers, the coaching staff and everyone else involved in the organization. Rivers and gang will hope that a shift in venue will help kick-start the team as it would go on to finish a dismal 5-11 last year. Seattle was 10-5-1 last year in the regualr season and was 3-1 in the preseason (San Diego was just 1-3.) Seattle knows who will be under center in Week 1, so the focus falls onto backup wannabe’s Trevone Boykin and CJ Prosise (each will see a half today likely.) Focus for the Seahawks will also fall onto the RB position, with new-comer Eddie Lacy battling Thomas Rawls for the No. 1 spot. Seattle struggled without a strong running game last year, averaging just 22.1 PPG, but the defense was once again superb, allowing an average of just 18.2 PPG, ranked third overall. Both Rivers and RB Melvin Gordon are expected to see very limited to no time whatsoever in this one for the home side. The Chargers have a competition going on for backup QB as well between Kellen Clemens, Mike Bercovici and Cardale Jones. San Diego was decent offensively last year in averaging 25.6 PPG, but ranked 29th overall on the defensive end in conceding 26.4 PPG. Hawks’ coach Pete Carrol puts emphasis on the preseason. The Chargesr have a lot of outside external factors at play here and we think the organization comes in a bit flat in this meaningless preseason Week 1 contest. Play on the SEAHAWKS. AAA Sports |
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08-10-17 | Falcons v. Dolphins | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG TIGER on the Atlanta Falcons. Miami has several injured players, including to starting QB Ryan Tannehill, a factor which made the Fish go out and sign retired QB Jay Cutler. Cutler will see a few snaps today before giving way to Matt Moore. To say the QB situation is “unsettled” for the Dolphins would be a bit of an understatement in our opinion. Additional Dolphin injuries also include RB Jay Ajayi and left guard Ted Larsen (Mike Pouncey is also banged up and out until at least Week 1 of the regular season.) ATL knows who it will have under center in Week 1, but Matt Ryan will see limited to no time whatsoever in this one (the same for every starter on both sides of the field.) WR Julio Jones is still recovering from foot surgery. RB’s Tevin Coleman and Devonte Freeman could both see a few touches. The bottom line: No game means less than Week 1 of the preseason, but we think this one means more to the Falcons. Atlanta will want to start the year off on the “right foot” after the epic OT Super Bowl collapse last season (we unfortunately had both the Falcons and the UNDER in that one, losing the side and total, but cashing our second straight Super Bowl SUPER TEASER.) ATL coach Dan Quinn will want to get his team a quick win and back into the right frame of mind, while the Dolphins clearly have more questions than answers right now. Play on the FALCONS. AAA Sports |
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08-08-17 | Rockies v. Indians -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG TIGER on the Cleveland Indians on the RUN-LINE. We feel that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. German Marquez: He’s 9-4 with a 4.11 ERA. Marquez most recently allowed three runs off six hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Mets on Thursday. Marquez has been solid across the board in his second season, but if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his play in all “night” games, where he’s posted a poor 5.23 ERA thus far. Corey Kluber: He’s 9-3 with a 2.77 ERA. Kluber comes in off a complete game against the Yanks on Thursday, giving up one run off three hits with one walk to go along with 11 K’s. Kluber has now posted double digit strikeouts in nine of his last ten starts with a 1.70 ERA and 113:12 K:BB in the process. Kluber has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as he’s 7-1 with a 2.22 ERA at home. The bottom line: We think Marquez will get chased early and we’re expecting another strong effort from Kluber. Play on the INDIANS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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08-05-17 | White Sox v. Red Sox -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Boston Red Sox on the RUN-LINE. We think that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound and at the plate absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs and mid-sized price in what we expect to be an epic rout from start to finish. James Shields: He’s 2-3 with a 6.19 ERA. Shields gave up six runs off eight hits while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision against the Jays on Monday. Note that he’s been particularly horrible in this position all season long, 0-0 with a 5.88 ERA on the road and just 1-2 with a 7.09 ERA in all “night” games. Drew Pomeranz: He’s 10-4 with a 3.46 ERA. Pomeranz comes in off a gem against the Royals on Sunday, allowing one run over 6.2 innings. Pomeranz has been solid of late, posting four quality outings in his last six trips to the hill (note that he’s 6-2 with a 3.64 ERA at home and 9-3 with a 3.43 ERA in all “night” games this season.) The bottom line: I’ll point out that Chicago is just 13-17 (-2.4 units) this year against southpaws, while Boston is 49-37 (+1.1 units) against right-handed starters. Play on the RED SOX on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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08-04-17 | Nationals +1.5 v. Cubs | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Washington Nationals on the RUN-LINE. In a contest which we foresee being decided late or in extra innings, we’re going to lay what we feel to be a very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Tanner Roark: He’s 8-7 with a 4.93 ERA. Roark gave up four runs while striking out eight over five innings in a loss to Colorado on Saturday. Roark though has given up just six earned runs over his last three starts. Kyle Hendricks: He’s 4-3 with a 3.80 ERA. Hendricks gave up one run over five innings in a victory over the Brewers on Saturday. This will be Hendricks third start since coming back from the DL, note that he owns a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA at homt so far this season. The bottom line: Note that Washington is 16-10 (+3.4 units) this year against teams with winning records this season, while Chicago is just 19-23 (-10 units) against clubs with winning records this year. Play on the NATIONALS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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08-03-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals | Top | 20-18 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on the Arizona Cardinals. This is a situationally based selection. The Cardinals finished 7-9 last year. Arizona had a poor preseason, finishing 1-3. The Cowboys went on to finish 13-3 in the regular season, but then fell 34-31 to Green Bay in the Wildcard round. Dallas was also just 1-3 in the preseason though. We think the Cowboys will once again be disinterested in the preseason this year, while clearly the Cards have many different things to work on after last season’s epic overall collapse. Playing in the Hall Of Fame Game means that you get one extra warm up and it’s a contest which we believe will mean more to Arizona. The Cards got off to a lousy start in the preseason a year ago and never recovered after that. The Cowboys are obviously the more complete team and will only be using the preseason to figure out a few missing pieces. The starters will see just a few snaps (if any at all) and we think this also proves beneficial for Arizona, as it will have many competitions going on up and down and on both sides of the field. We think the Cardinals play with fire to open the year. Play on ARIZONA. AAA Sports |
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07-30-17 | Astros v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* “RED DRAGON” on the Detroit Tigers on the RUN-LINE. These starters are moving in opposite directions and while we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, in the end we feel there’s great value with the home side on the RUN-LINE this afternoon: Lance McCullers: He’s 7-2 with a 3.67 ERA. McCullers most recently gave up six runs off nine hits and two walks over 4.1 innings in a loss to Baltimore on Sunday. McCullers has now allowed 20 runs over his last four starts and owns a poor 4.36 ERA on the road. Justin Verlander: He’s 5-7 with a 4.50 ERA. Verlander gave up three runs off five hits and two walks while striking out nine over seven innings in a loss to the Royals on Monday. Verlander has now allowed three runs or fewer in ten of his last 11 starts and is 3-2 with a respectable 3.62 ERA at home this season. The bottom line: Looks like this one could come down to the wire, so grab the insurance. Play on the TIGERS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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07-29-17 | Hamilton +13 v. Calgary | Top | 1-60 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE YEAR on the Hamilton Tigercats. We’re not suggesting that you should “sprinkle a little” on the money line, as the 0-4 Hamllton Tigercats are sizeable underdogs on the road this week. We do however think this is a few too many points to be giving up as we look for Hamilton to at the very least, sneak in through the back door with the large spread it’s being afforded. Hamilton: It’s been a rough start to open the year for the Ti-Cats, as QB Zach Collaros has 1,041 yards, three TD’s and four INT’s. Production is down on both sides of the line though, as Hamilton has allowed 35.2 PPG thus far. Calgary: The Stamps are 3-1-1 and haven’t lost a home game since October of 2015. QB Bo Levi Mitchell has 1,635 yards, nine TD’s and three INT’s. Calgary allows just 24 PPG. The bottom line: After crushing the Roughriders 27-10 at home last week and with two tough road games on the horizon at Toronto and BC respectively, we think that Calgary gets caught “looking past” the lowly Ti-Cats today. While the playoffs are quickly becoming a fantasy, another loss here will almost assuredly be too much for Hamilton to climb out of. The TIGERCATS lays everything on the line this weekend, grab the points. AAA Sports |
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07-22-17 | A's +1.5 v. Mets | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Oakland A’s. We had a play on the A’s straight up as a big dog last night and they’d end up losing 7-5. Tonight we’re expecting an even closer affair which will once again be decided late or in extra innings and as such, we’re going to grab the extra 1.5 runs of insurance: Sean Manaea: He’s 8-5 with a 3.68 ERA. Manaea gave up two earned runs over seven innings in a victory over Cleveland on Sunday. Manaea has now allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of 11 starts this season (owns a very respectable 3.72 ERA on the road as well.) Zack Wheeler: He’s 3-7 with a 4.98 ERA. Wheeler gave up four runs off seven hits and four walks while striking out five over five innings in a loss to St. Louis on Monday. Note that he owns a poor 2-5, 5.52 record/ERA at home so far this season. The bottom line: Often the best indicator we have when trying to assess starting pitching is “recent performance” and in this case, there’s no question that Manaea has the advantage in that department. Lay the price for the 1.5 runs, play on the A’s on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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07-01-17 | Winnipeg -1 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 43-40 | Win | 100 | 124 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The Blue Bombers had a bye in Week 1 and open up their 2017 campaign on the road in Saskatchewan. Winnipeg was 11-7 in 2016 and hands the ball to Matt Nichols under center this season. Last year he had 3,666 yards, 18 TD’s to just nine INT’s in his limited time as QB. One other player on the offense that you’ll want to keep your eyes on for the visitors is WR Weston Dressler, who caught 80 passes for over 1,000 yards last season. Bombers’ RB Andrew Harris had 974 yards and four major scores in 2016. The Roughriders look poised for a letdown here in our opinion after a tough Week 1 loss to the Alouettes. QB Kevin Glenn was solid though with 298 years, while Nik Demski was a standout with seven catches for 87 yards. Star Naaman Roosevelt though was held to only 59 yards receiving. Note that Winnipeg is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 against division opponents, while Saskatchewan is just 7-12 ATS against the division. Ultimately we feel that the Blue Bombers’ extra week off to game-plan for their opener will be the difference. Play on WINNIPEG. AAA Sports |
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05-25-17 | Cavs -9.5 v. Celtics | Top | 135-102 | Win | 100 | 36 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Cleveland Cavaliers. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: As note that Cleveland is 15-10 ATS in its last 25 when leading in a playoff series, while Boston is just 17-19 ATS this year against good offensive clubs which score 106 plus points per contest. The bottom line: It’s the end of the road for the Celtics. They played unbelievable in Game 3 without Isaiah Thomas in the line-up and while they looked good for the first half of Game 4, his absence would finally catch up to the team in the second half. The CAVALIERS can smell the blood in the water and have the Warriors in their sights. Lay the points with confidence, play on CLEVELAND. AAA Sports |
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05-23-17 | Celtics +15 v. Cavs | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 33 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Boston Celtics. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: As note that Boston is already 5-3 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog, while Cleveland is just 4-6 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent and only 8-10 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. The bottom line: We had a play on Boston in Game 5. So can the Celtics pull of another miracle and win Game 4 outright as well? Anything is possible obviously, but we’re not going to be so bold as to predict back-to-back massive upsets. That said, we do think that the now re-energized C’s can keep this one a lot closer than what Vegas is leading us to believe. It was a big wake up call for Cleveland, who we expect to play with an added focus on the defensive end tonight after the Game 5 collapse. In our opinion, this is just too many points to be giving up. Play on BOSTON. AAA Sports |
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05-21-17 | Celtics +14.5 v. Cavs | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 34 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Boston Celtics. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: As note that Boston is 10-5 ATS this year after a loss by ten points or more, while Cleveland is only 3-4 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or less. The bottom line: With Boston’ star Isaiah Thomas now officially sidelined with injury for the rest of the year, will the Cavs finally take the foot off the gas? That’s the big question. And we think the answer is “yes.” There’s no question that Boston would not have won the Eastern Conference in the regular season without Thomas leading the charge, but the one of the main strengths of of the team has been its overall depth. While we are not of course predicting an outright upset, we do definitely feel this is a few too many points to be giving up. Play on BOSTON. AAA Sports |
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05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs +6.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the San Antonio Spurs. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: As note that Golden State is just 2-4 ATS this year when playing with three or more days rest, while San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last five in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. The bottom line: Clearly this is it for the Spurs, as a 3-0 hole would be just too much to climb out of against the high-powered Warriors. San Antonio gave its best shot in Game 1 and came up short, losing Kawhi Leonard in the process. The Spurs responded in Game 6 of their semi final matchup against the Rockets with a 50 point victory with Leonard sitting, but that same unit was unable to generate much of anything in Game 2. Different set of situational circumstances for each game though. Whether Leonard plays or not tonight, we like SAN ANTONIO to give Golden State everything it can handle tonight. AAA Sports |
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05-19-17 | Cavs -5 v. Celtics | Top | 130-86 | Win | 100 | 28 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on the Cleveland Cavaliers. We don't normally “flip-flop” back and forth on teams. However, we feel you have to remain flexible with your approach in the playoffs and being able to adjust after a mis-read is what seperates the novice from the pro. We had the C’s in Game 1, but we think that Cleveland builds off its big victory as it looks to take a strangle hold on this series as it heads back home for Game’s 3 and 4. Note that Cleveland is 14-8 ATS in its last 22 when leading in a playoff series (including 3-1 ATS this year) and 15-10 ATS after a win by ten points or more, while Boston is only 8-10 ATS this season after allowing 115 points or more and just 22-27 ATS overall in front of the home town crowd. Isaiah Thomas does not have anyone to help him in this series, as Boston is simply outclassed up and down the lineup. Lay the points and expect a rout, play on the CAVALIERS. AAA Sports |
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05-17-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +4 | Top | 117-104 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Boston Celtics. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: As note that Cleveland is just 10-13 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU victories, while Boston is 21-13 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. The bottom line: The Cavs may have taken three of four in the regular season series, but we are expecting the underdog to come out fighting tonight. Cleveland hasn’t played for ten days and we’re fully expecting “rest” to lead to “rust.” Grab as many points as you can, play on the CELTICS. AAA Sports |
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05-16-17 | Spurs v. Warriors -13 | Top | 100-136 | Win | 100 | 35 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Golden State Warriors. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: As note that San Antonio is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after allowing 113 points or more, while Golden State is already a perfect 5-1 ATS this season when leading in a playoff series. The bottom line: We know that the Spurs hammered the Rockets in Game 6 of their Western Conference Semi-Final round without Kawhi Leonard in the line-up, but that was then and this is now. The entire situation and dynamic of the series is completely changed. After the way they lost Game 1, we expect the Spurs to come out flat here. And after the near disaster in dropping Game 1, we look for the WARRIORS to push the pace from start to finish. AAA Sports |
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05-15-17 | Astros v. Marlins +1.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -165 | 26 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Miami Marlins. We’re laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in this one. Joe Musgrove: He’s 2-3 with a 5.02 ERA. He most reecntly gave up two runs off four hits and three walks while stirking out four over six frames in a 4-2 win over the Braves on Wednesday. Musgrove has for the most part been a big disappointment this year and note that he was a deplorable 1-3 with a 7.27 ERA on the road last year. Dan Straily: He’s 1-3 with a 4.03 ERA. Most recently he went seven innings aginst the Cards and gave up one run over seven innings, walking only one batter. Note that Straily owned a 2.38 ERA at home last year. The bottom line: Houston just took two of three from New York over the weekend, winning on Friday night, before having its game on Saturday rained out, then losing the first game of the double header on Sunday afternoon, before then bouncing back to take the night-cap. Miami on the other wrapped up a 3-1 win over the Braves yesterday afternoon. Lay the price for the insurance, play on the MARLINS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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05-14-17 | Spurs v. Warriors -10 | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Golden State Warriors. Many are expecting a complete blowout in Game 1 of this series and you can count us as one of those. The Spurs have looked fantastic at times in the playoffs and really old in others. Tony Parker is out for the remainder of the playoffs and while Kawhi Leonard will return after sitting out the Game 6 victory over Houston, his health is still a minor concern for the already undermanned Spurs. The Warriors are completely rested and 100% healthy. Golden State will be looking to immediately send a message to San Antonito that it has no hope whatsover in this series, so expect the home side to have the foot on the gas from start to finish. Also note that the Spurs are just 5-9 ATS this year when playing with two days rest, while Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last six following a win by ten points or more. Play on the WARRIORS. AAA Sports |
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05-13-17 | Senators +1.5 v. Penguins | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 55 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Ottawa Senators. We feel this is a very fair price for the extra goal-and-a-half of insurance. The Pens have looked very beatable this year and are lucky to have survived against the Capitals. The Senators have gotten better goaltending, as Craig Anderson is 8-4 with a 2.49 GAA and .914 save percentage, while the Pens’ Marc-Andre Fleury is 8-4 with a 2.55 GAA and .927 save percentage. Both teams have looked pretty good on both ends of the ice in the playoffs, but we look for the SENATORS to give their best punch tonight and in a contest which we envision finishing late or in extra periods, we’re grabbing the PUCK-LINE. AAA Sports |
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05-12-17 | Celtics +5 v. Wizards | Top | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 32 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Boston Celtics. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: As note that Boston is 26-18 ATS on the road this year, while Washington is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after a loss by ten points or more. The bottom line: We played the Celtics in Game 5. So far home court advantage has been the difference maker in this series, with each team winning and covering in its own building. But we look for that trend to end tonight. Boston looked refreshed and got significant production from its role players last time out. While we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we expect this one to come down to the wire. Play on the CELTICS. AAA Sports |
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05-11-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -6.5 | 114-75 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 44 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Houston Rockets. Neither team has looked like it can compete with the Warriors, but with their backs against the wall, we’re expecting the desperate Rockets to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Note that San Antonio is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 when leading in a playoff series, while Houston is 20-15 ATS this season in revenging a loss against an opponent. The bottom line: We think that the pressure is on the Spurs, who have not looked great in this series. Houston star James Harden still looks like he has fresh legs, so we’re expecting the home side to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Looks like we’re heading back to San Antonio for a Game 7, play on the ROCKETS. AAA Sports |
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05-10-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Boston Celtics. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: As note that Washington is just 17-20 ATS as an underdog this year, while Boston is 9-4 ATS following a loss by ten points or more. The bottom line: Boston won the first two games of this series at home and then Washington returned the favor in Game’s 3 and 4 in the nation’s capital. With the series once again shifting to Bean Town, we expect the Celtics to once again find a way to get the job done. Celtics star player Isaiah Thomas looks poised another break out performance after a couple of sub-par performances in Washington. Home floor continues to be the decider in this series, lay the points on the CELTICS. AAA Sports |
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05-09-17 | Rockets v. Spurs -5.5 | Top | 107-110 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the San Antonio Spurs. This has been an interesting series so far, with both teams looking good and bad at times. The Rockets come in off a big Game 4 victory at home as this series has now become the best of three. Houston has been one of the higher-scoring teams in the playoffs, but one of the worst on the defensive end. The Spurs have been in the middle of the pack offensively, but one of the best on the defensive end. Pretty much identical to what each did in the regular season as well. One big factor working against the Rockets though is the loss of big man Nene to a torn left adductor. Also note that Houston is just 12-20 ATS this year after a win by ten points or more, while San Antonio is 6-1 ATS in its last seven when tied in a playoff series. Expect Popovich to make the necessary adjustments, play on the SPURS. AAA Sports |
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05-07-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -5.5 | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 27 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Houston Rockets. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: As note that San Antonio is just 2-3 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog and only 4-7 ATS in its last 11 when leading in a playoff series, while Houston is 9-3 ATS this season in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent and 11-6 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. The bottom line: The Spurs are happy with the split. The Rockets are in basically a must-win scenario. All signs do indeed point to HOUSTON as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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05-07-17 | Celtics +5 v. Wizards | 102-121 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Celtics. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: As note that Boston is 9-3 ATS this year after a loss by ten points or more, while Washington is just 22-25 ATS in its last 47 after scoring 115 points or more. The bottom line: Game’s 1 and 2 were much more competitive than Game 3, as Boston seemed to run out of gas. However, with a chance to re-focus, we expect Isaiah Thomas and company to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Grab the points, play on the CELTICS. AAA Sports |
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05-07-17 | Cavs v. Raptors +7 | 109-102 | Push | 0 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Toronto Raptors. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: As note that Cleveland is just 10-13 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU/ATS victories, while Toronto is 3-1 ATS in its last four after allowing 115 points or more. The bottom line: With or without Lowry, we look for the prideful Raptors to fight tooth and nail today. So far the Cavs have dominated this series, but we think that the desperate home side keeps it competitive down the stretch. Grab the points, play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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05-06-17 | Warriors -5.5 v. Jazz | Top | 102-91 | Win | 100 | 34 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Golden State Warriors. Golden State has won the first two games of this series quite easiy, but it’s come up a single bucket short in each game in actually covering the Las Vegas spread. We think that changes tonight though as we’re expecting the Warriors to play their best game of this entire series as they look to stomp out all remaining hope for the floundering Jazz. Utah owned the No. 1 defense in the league in the regular season, but so far it’s been a disaster against the league’s No. 1 offense. Nothing is going to change because of a venue change in our opinion. Note that the Warriors are now 5-1 ATS in their last six when leading in a playoff series, while Utah is just 3-7 ATS this year after playing three consecutive road games. Play on GOLDEN STATE. AAA Sports |
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05-04-17 | Jazz v. Warriors -12.5 | 104-115 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 35 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Golden State Warriors. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: AAA Sports will have their full analysis for this selection posted shortly. No later than 6 hours before game time. As note that Utah is just 18-20 ATS this year in revenging a loss against an opponent and only 1-6 ATS in its last seven as a road dog of 12.5 points or more, while Golden State is now 6-2 ATS in its last eight when leading in a playoff series. The bottom line: The Warriors were 12.5 point favs in Game 1 and led by 16 with 30 seconds to go, but somehow managed to only win by 12. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting GOLDEN STATE to send a resounding statement tonight as it looks to squash any hopes that Utah could possibly have left. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 31 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washignton Wizards. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: We don’t have to question the Wizards’ focus and determination tonight, this is the team’s biggest game of the entire year, bascially a do-or-die. Boston has been playing unbelievably since its Game 2 loss to Chicago in the opening round, but one has to wonder how much the team has left in the tank at this point? That’s six straight big time victories, having to come back from two different double-digit deficits for the win. Game 3 sets up as trap of sorts for the Celtics, who must surely be starting to feel the drain. Also note that Boston is just 7-8 ATS this year after allowing 115 points or more, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. Play on the WIZARDS. AAA Sports |
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05-04-17 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Washington Nationals. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we definitely believe that Max Scherzer and the home side should be much bigger ones. In fact, we feel that the talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near “pick-em” price. Braden Shipley: He’s been called up to make this single start for the Nats. In Triple-A Reno this season he owns a poor 4.18 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Note that he was particularly bad in this spot last year, going just 3-4 with a 4.81 ERA on the road. Scherzer: He’s 3-2 with a 2.94 ERA. He’s coming off an outing to forget in which he allowed five runs off nine this and a walk while striking out seven over six innings in a 7-5 loss to the Mets on Friday. It was by far Scherzer’s worst start of the year and despite the rough outing, note that he still owns a tiny 0.98 WHIP and 40:9 K:BB ratio over his 33.1 innings of work. The bottom line: Scherzer was 20-7 with a 2.96 ERA last season and was particularly tough at home, going 8-3 with a 2.56 ERA. The Nats managed a 2-1 win on Wednesday, but a blowout of epic proportions is in the cards on Thursday. Lay the 1.5 runs, play on WASHINGTON on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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05-02-17 | Jazz +13 v. Warriors | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 36 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the Utah Jazz. We think that if Utah has any real shot at pulling off an unbelievable upset in this series, that it has to win Game 1. While the Jazz are coming off an exhausting seven game series win over the Clippers, we’re expecting Utah to give the Warriors their best shot tonight. Would it be too hard to imagine the Warriors coming out a bit flat footed after their four-game destruction of the Blazers? We had a play on the Cavaliers last night and stated that we thought the extra time off was a huge advantage for the defending champs at this time of year, after they also beat the Pacers in four games as well. We also noted that we thought that for other clubs, extended time off between series can absolutely have a detrimental effect on team chemistry. Obvouisly the Warriors aren’t going to suddenly forget how to play basketball after a couple of extra days off, but we still think the conditions are right for the hungry JAZZ to keep this one a lot closer than what the bookmakers want us to think. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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05-02-17 | Wizards +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 119-129 | Loss | -113 | 34 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Washington Wizards. We played the Wizards in Game 1 and felt pretty good after the first few minutes, as Washington jumped out to what looked like to be an early insurmountable 22-5 lead. However, things quickly deteriorated after that and Boston would go on to win in a blowout. We are primarily a situationally based handicapping service and we once again feel that this one sets up very well for the Wizards. This has suddenly become the most important game of the year for Washington. Boston has looked awfully good since Game 3 of its opening round series against the Bulls, but this is a spot in which the C’s have constantly struggled in for bettors all season, going just 9-12 ATS after scoring 115 points or more and a horrible 4-15 ATS after three or more consecutive SU victories. And note, this is a position in which the Wizards have excelled in, going 8-6 ATS this year after allowing 115 points or more and 25-16 ATS in revenging a loss against an opponent. We’re expecting this one to come down to the wire, so grab the points. Play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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05-01-17 | Raptors v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 33 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERNECE SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Cleveland Cavaliers. Toronto will once again look to “get over the hump” and upset the Cavaliers in the playoffs this year. So far the Raptors haven’t been able to solve LeBron James and company in the postseason over the last three years and simply put, we don’t see anything changing in this one either (in Game 1 anyways). Toronto needed six games to get past the Bucks, most recently a 92-89 road win in Game 6 on Thursday night. For some teams we’d say that an extended period of time off between series could be a detriment to chemistry, but for the Cavaliers, a club which has played a ridiculous amount of basketball over the last three years, it is without question a huge advantage. The Pacers were not an easy “out” whatsoever, but James was dominant in the four game series sweep (does anyone think that Toronto would have swept Paul George and the Pacers?). Toronto looked poor offensively against the Bucks and strong on the defensive end, but Milwaukee wasn’t the most dynamic offensive club in the league in the regular season, finishing in the bottom third. Cleveland has big men which are well rested with just as much experience as Toronto’s Serge Ibaka, so we aren’t reading anything into that matchup whatsoever. And note that Toronto is just 6-7 ATS this year after allowing 90 points or less, while Cleveland is a perfect 2-0 ATS when playing with three or more days rest. We’re expecting a complete blowout in Game 1, play on the CAVALIERS. AAA Sports |
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04-30-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 111-123 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Washington Wizards. The Wizards were 3-0 at home in their round 1 victory over Atlanta and just 1-2 on the road. Washington did though get over the hump in Game 6 and crushed the Hawks behind 41 points from John Wall. The Celtics struggled in Game’s 1 and 2 of their series, but then Isaiah Thomas recovered from the death of his sister and Boston would go on to roll in four straight. Both teams come in hot. Thomas is a decent defender, but we think the duo of Wall and Bradley Beal is one that Boston isn’t completely able to matchup against. At the very least, we think the dynamic guard tandem will give the home side everything it can handle tonight. Clearly these teams are very even, but this matchup discrepancy, along with the fact that the Celtics are just 3-15 ATS this year after three or more consecutive straight-up victories, while the Wizards are 8-3 ATS off an upset win as an underdog, make the visiting side the play here. While we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommending grabbing as many points as you can, play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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04-28-17 | Wizards +3 v. Hawks | Top | 115-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Washington Wizards. The Wizards are up 3-2 and have an opportunity to end this series right here and now. So far home floor has been the difference in the straight-up win/loss category, but after winning the first two against-the-spread, Washington has now gone 0-3 ATS over the last three. Atlanta has put up a hell of a fight to this point, but we think it’s run out of gas. The dynamic duo of John Wall and Bradley Beal have been huge so far in this series and we don’t think the home side will have an answer for either of them tonight as well. Note that the Wizards are 3-1 ATS in their last four when holding their opponent to under 100 points in their previous game, while ATL is just 1-3 ATS in its last four when failing to top the 100-point mark. We think the WIZARDS’ depth proves to be too much for Atlanta to handle in the end, grab the points. AAA Sports |
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04-27-17 | Raptors v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 92-89 | Loss | -103 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Milwaukee Bucks. It’s do-or-die for the Bucks. We’re expecting the home side to find a way to get the job done and push this series to a decisive Game 7 in what should be a dramatic atmosphere North of the border. Toronto’s 118-93 Game 5 victory was its best performance to date, but we’re not ready to say that the team has completely gotten over its inconsistent ways quite yet. The Raptors have been famous “no shows” in these types of situations as note that they’re a horrible 0-4 ATS the last two years when leading in a playoff series. Conversely, this has been a spot in which the Bucks have excelled in all season, going 5-3 ATS after allowing 115 points or more. Milwaukee is still the second ranked playoff defense in allowing only 98 PPG and we think it returns to form this evening. It should be another exciting one, but we look for MILWAUKEE to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. AAA Sports |
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04-26-17 | Bulls +8 v. Celtics | Top | 97-108 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Chicago Bulls. This has been an interesting series to watch and handicap. The day before it started, Celtics’ star guard Isaiah Thomas’ sister was tragically killed in a car accident. The Celtics dropped the first two games of the series at home, which then had many questioning whether they had anything left in the tank. Bulls’ guard Rajon Rondo was injured late in Game 2 and didn’t play in the Games’ 3 and 4 losses at home. Thomas was finally able to get over his immediate grief and focus on basketball and the C’s left the Windy City all tied up at two. Rondo may make an appearance in Game 5, but regardless, we think the advantage has now swung back in favor of the Bulls. Chicago’s back is against the wall, as Boston has stolen all the momentum. Also note that the Bulls are 8-4 ATS this season when playing with two days rest, while the Celtics are just 4-10 ATS in the same position. Grab as many points as you can, play on CHICAGO. AAA Sports |
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04-25-17 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -9.5 | 103-116 | Win | 100 | 35 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs smashed the Grizzlies in Games 1 and 2 at home, a favor returned by Memphis on its own floor in Games 3 and 4. We believe that home floor advantage will continue to be a crucial factor in this series and look for this strong pattern to continue here. Also note that Memphis is just 2-12 ATS this year when playing with two days rest, while San Antonio is 3-1 ATS in its last five in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. We look for San Antonio to be much more productive on both ends of the court tonight and expect the Grizzlies to fade away down the stretch. Play on the SPURS. AAA Sports |
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04-25-17 | Thunder +8 v. Rockets | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 34 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Oklahoma City Thunder. We think the Rockets come out a bit complacent and expect the Thunder to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and to comfortably sneak in through the backdoor with the large spread they’ve been afforded. OKC had a big lead in Game 4, but would crumble defensively and allow the Rockets to score 40 points in the fourth quarter. There’s no way that Russell Westbrook is going down without a fight tonight though. Also note that OKC is 7-2 ATS this year in revenging a home loss against an opponent, while Houston is just 2-4 ATS this season off an upset win as an underdog. Grab as many points as you can, play on the THUNDER. AAA Sports |
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04-25-17 | Astros v. Indians +1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -160 | 26 h 9 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cleveland Indians. So far Dallas Keuchel has been pretty fantastic for the Astros, but we expect Josh Tomlin and the home side to give the visitors everything they can handle this evening. Keuchel: He owns a 0.96 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over his first four starts. Most recently he allowed one run on eight hits and a walk while striking out seven over seven innings in a 5-1 win over the Angels on Wedensday. We think this unbeilevable pace is not sustainable. Note that if he did have one clear weakness last season, it was his play on the road where he’d finish a poor 5-7 with a 5.42 ERA. Tomlin: He’s just 1-2 with an 11.68 ERA. The veteran got back on track in his last start, allowing three runs off seven hits over six innings while striking out two in an 11-4 win over Minnesota on Tuesday. Tomlin posted a career-high 13 wins last year, note he finished the second half with a 3-1 (2.75 ERA) record at home in 2016. The bottom line: We think the Tribe come to play today. Lay the price for the extra run-and-a-half of insurance. Play on the INDIANS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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04-23-17 | Capitals -1.5 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP PLAY on the WASHINGTON CAPITALS on the PUCK-LINE. This series have been very competitive. Four of the five games have been decided in overtime and all of them have been decided by a single goal. As good as Toronto has played to this point, we still think that the Capitals are the better all around team. Washington also clearly has a massive upper hand in the “experience” department. We’ve been impressed with Toronto, but we think that the Capitals’ depth and veteran leadership will prove to be just too much for the younger Leafs. So far this series hasn’t featured a blowout game, but we think the visitors win and win big. Lay the goal and a half for the big payout! Play on the CAPITALS on the PUCK-LINE. AAA Sports |
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04-22-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies | 108-110 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 0 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the San Antonio Spurs. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: As note that San Antonio is 12-8 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and 11-7 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite, while Memphis is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after a win by ten points or more. The bottom line: San Antonio dominated Games 1 and 2, but was never able to get going in Game 3. The Grizzlies needed to play a perfect game and they did. There’s no way that happens in consecutive outings. The Spurs are too well coached and too deep to be held down in back-to-back games. We’re expecting Kawhi Leonard to get back on track and for SAN ANTONIO to head home with a commanding 3-1 series lead. AAA Sports |
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04-21-17 | Celtics +2 v. Bulls | Top | 104-87 | Win | 100 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR on the Boston Celtics. We believe that Isaiah Thomas will finally show up in a big way tonight. Boston fought hard all year and earned the No. 1 spot in the East. That was no fluke. The C’s are more than just Thomas, but there’s no question that he’s the engine that drives the machine. Thomas though suffered major heartbreak a day before Game 1 when his sister was tragically killed in a car accident. Thomas has courageously played through the first two games and has been decent, but not dominant. Now that he’s had a few more days to process his grief and get a handle on the situation, we’re expecting a monster game from him tonight. He will be refocused and ready to take out some hatred on someone and that unfortunate someone is the Bulls. Chicago has looked great to this point, but we’re expecting it to come in a tiny bit complacent here. Those first two victories were just too easy. Also note that the Celtics are 8-3 ATS this season after a loss by ten points or more, while Chicago is 10-12 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog. BOSTON gets right back into this series with a blowout win. AAA Sports |
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04-20-17 | Raptors +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 77-104 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN is on the Toronto Raptors. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: As note that Toronto is 5-3 in its last eight when tied in a playoff series, while Milwaukee is just 19-22 ATS at home this year. The bottom line: Toronto averages 106.9 PPG and allows 102.6. Milwaukee averages 103.6 PPG and allows 103.8. The Raptors have dominated this series over the last two years and have to be feeling confident here. The Bucks have put up a great fight over the first two games, but we think the visitors’ experience in these types of contests proves to be too much. Play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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04-19-17 | Thunder +7.5 v. Rockets | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 25 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Oklahoma City Thunder. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: As note that the Thunder are already 13-8 ATS this year after a loss by ten points or more, 11-7 ATS after allowing 115 pointsor more and 19-15 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while the Rockets are just 4-6 ATS this season when playing on two days rest and only 12-18 ATS after a victory by ten points or more. The bottom line: Also note that Houston is just 1-2 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or less. It’s do-or-die for Russell Westbrook and OKC and while we wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the hungry visiting side to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Play on the THUNDER. AAA Sports |
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04-15-17 | Flames +1.5 v. Ducks | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a 5* PUCK-LINE PLAY on the Calgary Flames. We had a play on the Flames on the PUCK-LINE in Game 1. If you didn’t get a chance to read the analysis for that pick, we think it’s worth a quick read here as for the most part, all of the factors that led to a winning play in Game 1, also directly pertain to this selection as well. Calgary will be leaning heavily on Brian Elliot today, he’s been one of the hottest goaltenders in the league since the all star break and we think he’ll be a big difference maker in this series. Note that he was 17-6-1 after the all star break. Elliot would finish 26-18-3 with a 2.55 GAA overall, while the Ducks turn to John Gibson, who missed time in Feb and Mar because of an injury, but who has been chosen to start Game 1. This is a big time revenge game as well for Calgary, as Anaheim took four of five in the regular season series. These teams played just last week and Anaheim starting defenseman Cam Fowler was injured and he’ll be out for at least a few more games. Lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance, play on the FLAMES on the PUCK-LINE. The bottom line: The extra 1.5 goals is more affordable this time around. Lay the price with confidence, play on the FLAMES on the PUCK-LINE. AAA Sports |
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04-13-17 | Flames +1.5 v. Ducks | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 81 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a 5* PUCK-LINE PLAY on the Calgary Flames. Calgary will be leaning heavily on Brian Elliot today, he’s been one of the hottest goaltenders in the league since the all star break and we think he’ll be a big difference maker in this series. Note that he was 17-6-1 after the all star break. Elliot would finish 26-18-3 with a 2.55 GAA overall, while the Ducks turn to John Gibson, who missed time in Feb and Mar because of an injury, but who has been chosen to start Game 1. This is a big time revenge game as well for Calgary, as Anaheim took four of five in the regular season series. These teams played just last week and Anaheim starting defenseman Cam Fowler was injured and he’ll be out for at least a few more games. Lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance, play on the FLAMES on the PUCK-LINE. AAA Sports |
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04-09-17 | Braves +1.5 v. Pirates | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a 5* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta has a big opportunity to take this one outright, as we think these pitchers are very evenly matched. However, we’re going to recommend laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance with the sometimes offensively challenged Braves. Julio Teheran: He faced the Mets in his season opener and went six scoreless, allowing four hits and three walks while striking out six in the unfortunate no-decision. Teheran was 7-10 with a 3.21 ERA last season and was particularly effective both on the road (5-4, 2.69 ERA) and in all “day” games (4-2, 2.14). Gerrit Cole: He had a strong spring but was rocked in his first start of the year in Boston on Monday, giving up five runs off seven hits and a walk while striking out two in the loss. Note that Cole wasn’t particularly impressive in this spot last year, going 2-5 with a 3.53 ERA at home and a poor 2-5 with a 4.21 ERA in all “day” games. The bottom line: In a contest which we foresee being decided late or in extra frames, we’re going to lay the price for the extra runs. Play on ATLANTA on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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04-07-17 | Royals v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE PLAY OF THE MONTH on the Houston Astros. We feel that the talent discrepancy on the mound, combined with the Royals’ issues at the plate absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. Jason Vargas: The Royals are struggling offensively this year, which dosn’t bode well for Vargas, who looked shaky in the spring, ultimately finishing with a 3.84 ERA. KC’s bullpen has also been atrocious, in the season opening series loss to the Twins (0-3) its bullpen would allow 14 runs, all in the seventh inning. Mike Fiers: He was 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA last year. Fiers is only in the starting rotation because Colin McHugh is injured, but he looked sharp this spring, posting a 2.42 ERA over 18.1 innings of work. The bottom line: The Astros are getting production at the plate and have the superior starter on the mound. Play on HOUSTON on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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04-07-17 | Knicks v. Grizzlies -11 | Top | 88-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE YEAR on the Memphis Grizzlies. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: As note that New York is a poor 6-8 ATS this year when playing on back-to-back days, while Memphis is 23-16 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. The bottom line: The Knicks are playing out the tail end of a disastrous season. They have nothing to play for. Derrick Rose is out and Kristaps Porzingis is questionable. Memphis on the other hand comes in desperate here, it’s lost three straight and is trying to maintain its seventh spot in the West, while also gaining some type of momentum heading into the playoffs with a tilt against the Spurs in the first round. The Grizzlies also play with revenge. It’s a perfect set of situational and motivational factors working in favors of MEMPHIS. AAA Sports |
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04-06-17 | Celtics v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 116-123 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the Atlanta Hawks. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: As note that Boston is just 6-7 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite, while ATL is 15-10 ATS this season when playing the role of underdog. The bottom line: This one sets up beautifully for Atlanta. Boston comes in off a deflating loss at home just last night to the Cavaliers, a setback which drops it into second in the Eastern Conference race. Atlanta on the other hand still has an opportunity to overtake Milwaukee for fifth spot in the East, which if the playoffs started today, would see it facing Washington instead of Toronto. ATL has lost two straight and has a tough home-and-home set with the Cavaliers, starting tomorrow night in Cleveland. That makes tonight’s game an almost “must win” for the Hawks in our opinion. For all of the reasons listed above, play on ATLANTA. AAA Sports |
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04-05-17 | Nuggets v. Rockets -8.5 | Top | 104-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Houston Rockets. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on a few different factors: As note that Denver is just 1-3 ATS in its last four when playing on back-to-back days, only 20-22 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and just 6-9 ATS off an upset win as an underdog, while Houston is 16-9 ATS this year against poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest and 18-8 ATS after allowing 115 points or more. The bottom line: Denver comes in off a tiring 134-131 win in New Orleans just last night and we think it’s primed for a predictable letdown here. Conversely, the Rockets got two whole days rest to prepare for the final push of the season and we expect them to make the most of it. Lay the points with confidence, play on HOUSTON. AAA Sports |
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