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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-24-19 | Rangers v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* run line play on SEATTLE +1.5
AAA |
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07-23-19 | Storm v. Aces -5 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on LAS VEGAS Revenge spot! Las Vegas just lost up in Seattle 69-66 on Friday. But it should be a different result Tuesday night in Sin City. The Aces have already beaten the Storm once this year at home, holding them to a season-low 56 points. We continue to be astounded at how Seattle has persevered this season in the wake of such heavy attrition. They are down three starters, their head coach is dealing with a cancer diagnosis and the latest hit is the distraction surrounding forward Natasha Howard, who was accused of spousal abuse. Eventually, this will all catch up with them. We'll call for the four game SU and ATS win streak to end here. LV beat Minnesota 79-74 here at home Sunday and should win this one by a larger margin. The three-point loss in Seattle last week is the only loss the Aces have taken in their last seven games. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA |
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07-21-19 | Lynx v. Aces -5.5 | Top | 74-79 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAS VEGAS Las Vegas is off a very disappointing loss to Seattle. Disappointing in the sense that it snapped the Aces' five-game win streak and Seattle was really shorthanded. But for the second time this year, LV failed to score 70 points against the Storm. Perhaps they can swap stories about losing to Seattle with tonight's opponent as Minnesota also lost to the Storm in their last game. Their loss came Wednesday and saw them allow 90 points, a troubling sign. Las Vegas was a five-point winner up in Minnesota last month, so beating the Lynx here in Sin City shouldn't prove too difficult. Yes, forward A'ja Wilson was injured in the loss to Seattle. But we like how the Aces held the Storm to 27% shooting. They may not have won, but that kind of defense is what you like to see. The Lynx are 3-7 ATS their last 10 road games. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA |
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07-20-19 | Edmonton v. Montreal +6 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MONTREAL Montreal is going for its first three-game win streak since the end of the 2016 season here. The oddsmakers don't like their chances, installing them as underdogs at home vs. Edmonton. That's certainly understandable given what the expectations were for the Als coming into the season. But in their only home game so far, the Als pulled what is probably the biggest upset of this CFL season to date, handing Hamilton its only loss and doing so as 12.5-point underdogs. We took them in that game and then they followed with a second straight 36-point effort, this time beating Ottawa. We like them plus the points again here as Edmonton is highly unlikely to play as well as they did last week vs. B.C. That was a spirited game when they faced former QB Mike Reilly and emotions were running high. Two of the Eskimos three wins this have been at BC's expense. The other was an opening week win over the Als, 32-25. Montreal covered the eight-point spot in that game and is now getting a similar number at home. An easy call here. Play on MONTREAL AAA |
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07-19-19 | Aces -2.5 v. Storm | Top | 66-69 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LAS VEGAS (10*) Seattle has survived a bevy of turmoil to win three straight, their longest win streak of the season. They're now 11-8 overall and 7-3 at home and tonight finds them hosting Las Vegas, the first of two meetings that will take place between the teams over the next five days. Las Vegas is even hotter though as they've ripped off five straight wins and have been off since Saturday. Seattle just played two nights ago in Minnesota where they won 90-79. But with the ongoing off-court distractions involving Natasha Howard (domestic violence allegations) as well as already being out three starters, we can't see this run continuing for the Storm. Las Vegas already beat Seattle once this season, holding them to a season-low 56 points, and is now in an excellent spot to beat them again. The Aces are 5-2 ATS the last seven times they've taken the court on three or more days rest. There's a reason they are the favorite here. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA |
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07-18-19 | Toronto +12.5 v. Calgary | Top | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TORONTO Toronto is the only team in the CFL yet to taste victory this season as they're 0-4 and really reeling. Three of their four losses have been by 25 points or more and the one that wasn't was a heart-breaking one-point defeat to B.C. on a rare walkoff rouge. Calgary figures to be in an ornery mood this evening as they are off a 30-23 loss to Hamilton last week. Three of the Stampeders four games so far have been decided by a TD or less. So while we understand why the line is as large as it is, we wouldn't want to lay it. Calgary has failed to cover four of the last five times it has been off a SU loss. Remember that starting QB Bo Levi Mitchell is still on the injured list. Argos quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson threw for 388 yards last week vs Winnipeg last week, in addition to three touchdowns. The underdog will not go down quietly in this one as they are desperate for a win. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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07-18-19 | Wings v. Sparks -7.5 | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LA The Sparks are playing short-handed here due to the 10-game suspension of Riquna Williams. In the games that Williams has started, LA has gone 5-1. They are just 4-6 with her not in the starting five. But we believe they'll have little difficulty defeating Dallas by a wide margin Thursday as the Wings have not only yet to win on the road this season (0-8), they're being outscored by 11.6 points in those games. The Wings have lost three straight and five of six, the only win coming as a five-point home underdog against LA. So the Sparks are out for revenge here and thus won't be lacking for any motivation in the wake of the Williams suspension. Ironically, the Sparks only loss in their last six games was the one at Dallas. They've won three straight home games, averaging almost 93 points/game in the process. The home team is undervalued here. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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07-12-19 | Toronto +15 v. Winnipeg | Top | 21-48 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TORONTO The Argos are the only winless team in the CFL, but at least they were able to play a competitive game last week. We said that would be the case and took the points with them at home against B.C. The result was a wire to wire cover with the Argos losing by just a single point, 18-17 as 7.5-point pups. That was a far cry from what happened the first two weeks as they lost 64-14 to Hamilton and 32-7 to Saskatchewan. It'll be another hard game this week as they head to Manitoba to play the Bombers. Winnipeg is the only unbeaten team in the league, but the oddsmakers are being more than generous here. The Bombers have not won by more than 15 this year and have not been favored by more than five points in any game. It's unlikely they'll win big here considering QB Matt Nichols isn't 100 percent (will start though) and neither is top defensive player Adam Bighill (status is questionable). The Argos are still hungry for that first win and thus won't be throwing in the towel here. We'll grab the big number. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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07-12-19 | Pirates +1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PITTSBURGH +1.5 Taking Pittsburgh on the run line (+1.5) here as they were just able to defeat the Cubs three times in a four-game set played right before the All Star Break. Given that, we see no reason why they couldn't win here, even though the Cubs have proven to be a much better team at home. The last three starts for Yu Darvish have not been good as the Cubs have lost all of them with the Japanese native posting a 6.62 ERA. He has a very similar ERA for the year here at Wrigley (6.23), so that's another poor sign. Meanwhile, the Pirates have won the last four times Chris Archer has started, including a 6-5 decision against Darvish and the Cubs back on July 3rd. In the final week before the break, Pittsburgh went 5-2 and averaged 8.0 runs/game. We think they'll score enough here that the worst-case result for them is a one-run loss. Play PITTSBURGH on the run line (+1.5) AAA |
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07-06-19 | BC v. Toronto +8 | Top | 18-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TORONTO The Argos are 0-2 and haven't looked good in either game, losing 64-14 to Hamilton and 32-7 to Saskatchewan. But they're getting a more than generous number tonight at home against a B.C. team that also comes in winless on the year. The Lions are 0-3, so laying more than a score on the road with them doesn't sound like the best idea right now. This will be their third road game in as many weeks and we worry about the team's psyche after blowing a double digit lead last week to a backup QB in Calgary. The Lions have given up an average of 36 points through three games so don't be surprised if Toronto gets on track on offense here. While it's due to injury, we think the change at the QB position will prove fruitful for the Argos as Opening Day starter James Franklin simply was not getting the job done. It'll be only the 8th career start for McLeod Bethel-Thompson, but that's more experience than Franklin had. Bethel-Thompson led two come from behind wins in limited action last season. British Columbia will be without its top receiver tonight as Bryan Burnham (280 yards) is hurt. Look for the Argos to grab the cash tonight at BMO Field. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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07-06-19 | Lynx v. Sun -8 | Top | 74-71 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CONNECTICUT A quick note if you're wondering about last night's WNBA selection: It was suspended due to the earthquake felt in Vegas and thus obviously "no action." We expect no such problems this afternoon in Connecticut where the Sun host the Lynx on ESPN2. Connecticut is a perfect 6-0 at home this year and happy to be back at the Mohegan Sun Arena after being absolutely humiliated in their most recent game, a 102-59 loss to Conference-leading Washington. Look for the Sun to take their frustrations out on the Lynx, who are not the same team they once were. Connecticut has actually lost three in a row, obviously all on the road, but they're a much different team at home where they average 85.2 points/game and are outscoring teams by nearly 12 points/game. The Sun have had a full week to recover from the debacle in D.C. while the Lynx played earlier in the week. While the Lynx won by 17, it was at home against the team with the worst record in the league (Atlanta). We have no hesitation laying the number here as Connecticut has won six straight times over Minnesota, including one on the road last month. The Lynx are 1-6 ATS their last 7 road games. Play on CONNECTICUT AAA |
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07-05-19 | Mystics v. Aces -1 | Top | 51-36 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LAS VEGAS The pointspread has treated these two teams quite differently of late. Washington has not only won, but also covered, five straight games. This has them on top of the WNBA standings and they are leading the league with 86.8 points/game. Over in the West, you'll find Las Vegas in first place despite the Aces failing to cover four in a row. They did win on Tuesday, 90-82 over Chicago, but were nine-point favorites in that game. This is a big revenge spot for LV as they lost by 23 here at home to Washington late last month. You can bet that result hasn't been forgotten. This now looks to be a great value play on the Aces in Sin City as they certainly deserve to be the betting favorite here as they've won the last four at home since the blowout loss to the Mystics. Washington can't possibly play as well as it did in a 102-59 beatdown of Connecticut last Saturday. We're laying the small number. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA |
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07-05-19 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa -3.5 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 10* play on OTTAWA We are guaranteed at least one unbeaten team left in the CFL after Week 4 as both Winnipeg and Ottawa are 2-0 heading into this cross-division showdown. The Bombers have beaten both British Columbia (33-23 in Week 1) and Edmonton (28-21 in last week's home opener). This will be the first time they're playing without a bye. Ottawa happens to be coming off a bye here after downing Calgary and Saskatchewan by a combined seven points. A win here would give them an impressive 3-0 mark against the West, which would be very impressive considering it's perceived to be the league's stronger division. The Redblacks have put up 76 points in two games. That 38.0 point per game average is #1 in the league and a full 7.5 PPG more than #3 Winnipeg. QB Davis looked much better in his second start with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Plus, he connected on 6 of 9 deep throws for 176 yards. Ottawa didn't cover last week, but they are 13-6 ATS following an ATS loss and should prove to be too tough at home this week. We'll lay the short number. Play on OTTAWA AAA |
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07-04-19 | Hamilton v. Montreal +12.5 | Top | 29-36 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MONTREAL "Hamilton is humming" they say and it's tough to disagree at this point as the Ti-Cats have started the year 3-0 and have outscored those three opponents 128-41. They're 3-0 ATS in those games as well. After an underwhelming performance in Week 1 where they scored only 23 points, the Taibbis have put up 105 points in just the last two games, beating Toronto 64-14 and Montreal 41-10. The Als are again the opponents this week and after they lost by 31 last week, this may seem like a "tough sell." But this is way too high of a number for Hamilton to lay on the road. They were only -3.5 in Toronto and last week's number was very similar, only that was at home. There's value to be had here, even though Montreal is 0-2. Hamilton is 0-6-1 ATS their last 7 July games. Play on MONTREAL AAA |
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07-02-19 | Sky v. Aces -9 | Top | 82-90 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LAS VEGAS With Seattle losing on Sunday, that means Las Vegas has moved into first place in the Western Conference. The Aces are 7-5 and just percentage points ahead of the Storm, who are eventually going to succumb to all the absences from their lineup. So LV is in a good spot right now. Something definitely worth mentioning here is that the Aces have been favored in all 12 games this season. Make it 13 here as they draw a Chicago team that has lost three straight, including a 25-point defeat out in LA on Sunday. Las Vegas needed OT to get by Indiana on Saturday, winning 102-97, and thus didn't cover as huge 13.5-point favorites. The Aces are now just 1-5 ATS their past six games. But the number isn't nearly as high as it should be for this tilt as LV has won six of eight overall and three in a row at home (straight up). Play on LAS VEGASÂ AAA |
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07-01-19 | Giants +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 13-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on San Fran +1.5 Both of these teams have excelled in one-run games this year with the Padres going 18-9 and Giants at 17-9. Those are actually the two best records in the league in one-run affairs, so both teams have to be a little upset with where they stand currently. We won't be upset if this is a one-run game though as either way it would be a win for us as we're playing the run line. San Diego had a four-game win streak stopped yesterday by St. Louis. San Francisco won its game Sunday, 10-4 over Arizona. While Padres starting pitcher Allen has accounted well for himself in his first two starts, we're not ready to put our money on him. Jeff Samardzija has an 8-3 career record vs. the Padres with some of the best starts coming here in Petco. He's held the Padres to a .197 batting average in nine previous outings here. San Diego doesn't score enough at home (just 3.9 runs/game) to be trusted to win by multiple runs here. The Giants could very well take this game outright considering they have won six of their last eight series openers. Play San Francisco +1.5 on the RUN LINE AAA |
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07-01-19 | Toronto +11 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 7-32 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the ARGOS The Argos lost their opening game 64-14, so oddsmakers set the line high for this first away matchup, which takes place at Saskatchewan Moday. It's actually comes down some though, showing that most CFL bettors feel the 50-point loss to Hamilton was more "blip" than "trend." We're inclined to agree. While it's never good to lose by that many points, especially after getting a Week 1 bye, we expect Toronto to play a lot better this week. The Roughriders have also yet to taste victory this season, losing their first two games by a combined nine points. So they'll take a win any way they can get it and we don't see this turning into a blowout. Recall that the Riders are without their starting QB Zach Collaros. A repeat of last week's 41 point effort seems unlikely today as WR Emmanuel Arceneaux is still not ready to return from an ACL injury. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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06-26-19 | Rockies v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on San Fran RUN LINE (+1.5) The Giants evened up this series with a 4-2 win yesterday, getting a strong outing from Madison Bumgarner. It's been a low scoring series so far and armed with an extra run and a half in their pocket, I think the home team is the right call here. The last time Jeff Samardzija faced the Rockies, he shut them out for seven innings and the Giants won that game 1-0. Now the last time German Marquez (today's starter for Colorado) faced the Giants, he shut them out as well (it was the same series). But Colorado just isn't as potent at the plate when they're on the road and we don't see them scoring too many runs in this game. Then there is the matter that they are 5-14 the L19 times they've been off a game where they score two runs or fewer. They are also only 6-15 the L21 games at San Francisco, including 1-4 when Marquez is on the mound. Play SAN FRANCISCO +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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06-26-19 | White Sox v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -167 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Boston Run Line (-1.5) This should be a very easy win for Boston, so we're not hesitating to lay the -1.5, even at the unusually high price. The Red Sox have taken the first two games, 6-5 and 6-3, and now send out Chris Sale to finish the sweep. While one of the two prior wins did come by just one run, this should be the most lopsided game of the series. The last time Sale faced his former team, he shut them out for six innings in what ended up being a 6-1 Boston victory. It takes a heck of a pitching effort to beat Sale and quite frankly we don't think Chicago's Reynaldo Lopez is up to the challenge. He comes in with a 6.23 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, the kind of numbers you never see from Sale. Also, in addition to being 1-5 vs. the Red Sox this season, the White Sox are just 12-23 in day games. Sale has 106 strikeouts in his last 10 starts, a span of 65 1/3 innings. Chicago lost Tim Anderson to a sprained ankle in yesterday's game and he'd been one of the team's top hitters. No chance for the White Sox in this one. Play on BOSTON -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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06-15-19 | Winnipeg v. BC -1 | Top | 33-23 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BRITISH COLUMBIA British Columbia is hosting Winnipeg in the final matchup of CFL Week 1, an all Western Division battle. B.C. is looking to improve upon last season's .500 record while Winnipeg feels like it can win the division after going 10-8 and winning its first round playoff game. But the Lions are a strong home team (went 7-2 here last season) and should take this season opener. The home team captured both meetings in 2018. B.C. definitely improved in the offseason. We like the coaching change and nabbing QB Mike Reilly away from Edmonton was the biggest free agent move in the division. Reilly is now the highest paid player in the entire CFL, making $725K annually. The Blue Bombers seem a little overhyped to us as we don't see the ground game being quite as effective as it was last year. Again, B.C. is a much better team at home. Play on BRITISH COLUMBIA AAA |
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06-15-19 | Dream v. Wings +3 | Top | 61-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DALLAS Dallas plus the points represents our only loss of the WNBA season and it came by just half of a point! The loss took place Thursday and kept the Wings as the league's only winless team (0-5). This is a team certainly playing shorthanded right now as its two best players - Skylar Diggins (maternity leave) and rookie Arike Ogunbowale (sprained ankle) - have missed time. But those absences haven't kept the Wings from being competitive. Three of the five losses, including Thursday's, have been by four points or less. This is as favorable a matchup as any they can ask for as they suit up Saturday to take on Atlanta. The Dream have just one win on the season and are the only team with a worse point differential than Dallas. That lone win did come at the Wings' expense, back in the season opener, but was also at home and saw them have to rally late (outscored Dallas 29-17 in 4th quarter). Not that Dallas needed the added motivation, but we'll take the revenge angle. Reports are that Ogunbowale could return here as well. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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06-15-19 | Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Houston -1.5Â The Astros absolutely trashed the Blue Jays Friday night (won 15-2!) and should be able to do it again this afternoon. The Blue Jays are pretty much one of the worst teams in baseball right now. Only two teams have been outscored more runs over the course of the season: Baltimore and Detroit. The only real reason to follow the team, Vlad Guerrero Jr, has been a disappointment (thus far) and had to leave last night's game after taking a fastball to the hand. His status for Saturday is unclear, but even with him in the lineup, Toronto has the worst batting average in all of MLB. They probably won't be getting good pitching today either as Clayton Richard has a 7.04 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his four starts. He gave up seven runs in only 2 2/3 innings in the last one. The Jays' closer (Ken Giles) is also on the DL. Houston has injuries up and down its lineup right now, but last night proved that hardly matters. Framber Valdez looked good in his first start even though the Astros lost the game. He went seven innings and allowed just a run. Play Houston -1.5 on the Run Line. AAA |
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06-14-19 | Montreal v. Edmonton -10 | Top | 25-32 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on EDMONTON Edmonton kicks off the 2019 season with a home game against Montreal. Last season was not a good one for the visitors as it included a failed experiment with Johnny Football (imagine that!) and a 5-13 record. The Eskimos may have finished last in the Western Division with a 9-9 record, but that was a better record than all but one team in the Eastern Division. The fact that they were the only Western team not to make the Grey Cup Playoffs will have them motivated in this season opener. We look for the Eskimos to roll here as Montreal is just 1-4 ATS its last five season openers. The Alouettes also have so many question marks with the league having to take over ownership of the team and a new head coach just named six days ago. Edmonton has no such issues and far more stability. They beat Montreal by 16 and 19 points in the two games played last season. Play on EDMONTON AAA |
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06-11-19 | Padres v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SF -1.5 If any two teams were "destined" to play a one-run game today it would be these two. Both have done quite well for themselves in one-run games this year with the Padres at 16-6 and the Giants 14-6. All we need is a one-run game and it's a win for us either way as we'll be playing the run line (Giants +1.5) in this one. Chris Paddack has started to slow down for the Padres, giving up 10 runs in his last two starts. He's only 4-4 on the year. The Padres have only two wins in the last six games overall and both came by one run. Four of the seven times they've won with Paddack on the mound this year have been one run affairs. The Giants could very well win this game as well. Beede is starting for the first time at home. Play San Francisco RUN LINE (+1.5) AAA |
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06-10-19 | Warriors +3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 47 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on GOLDEN STATE It's do or die time for the Warriors on Monday. They hope to accomplish what the Bruins did last in NHL; that's stay alive by winning on the road. Of course, they're task is a whole lot tougher than the Bruins as they trail in this series 3 games to 1. In the entire history of the NBA Finals, only one team has ever come back to win after trailing 3-1. Golden State knows this very well as it happened to them back in 2016 against Cleveland. The big news is that Kevin Durant has practiced and is listed as questionable for Game #5. Even if he doesn't end up playing, we're still taking the Warriors. They're too good to go down without a fight. Klay Thompson and Kevon Looney both returned for Game 4. Before the last two games, they'd never lost two in a row at home in the playoffs under Kerr. Their only three-game playoff losing streak under Kerr came in that 2016 Finals vs. LeBron and the Cavs. Could Toronto be too "amped up" for this? We look for this to be a big bounce back game offensively for Golden State with or without Durant. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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06-10-19 | Rangers v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -119 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOSTON using the Run Line (-1.5) We don't see Texas being any match for Chris Sale and Boston Monday night. Sale has pitched much better than a 4-9 team start record shows. He has a sub 1.00 WHIP, including 0.76 the last three times he's started. His last start was a gem as he tossed a complete game shutout with 12 strikeouts, giving up only three hits along the way. In his last seven starts, he's struck out 10+ six times. Somehow Sale has yet to win a decision this year at Fenway, but look for that to change here - in a major way - as the Red Sox should win this game by multiple runs. Texas lost yesterday - as they ended up splitting a four game series against Oakland. They have Mike Minor pitching today and he has pitched well. But we're looking for the Boston offense (5th in scoring) to break out against him. The Red Sox are 11-2 vs. the Rangers since 2017, winning six of the last seven meetings. Sale is 7-2 with a 2.82 ERA in 14 career starts vs. Texas. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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06-08-19 | White Sox v. Royals +1.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -135 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on KANSAS CITY on the RUN LINE The Royals beat the White Sox last night and we believe they're more than capable of doing the same today. Just to be safe, we'll grab them on the run line though. After all, KC's record in one-run games is a very poor 4-12. Playing the run line will cover us were that situation to arise. Friday's win snapped a six-game losing streak for the Royals while sending Chicago to its third straight defeat. There's been no better pitcher for the White Sox than Lucas Giolito, who gets the starting nod here. The team is 9-2 in his 11 starts this season, including 7-0 the L7. The majority of those games have been low-scoring though, which again brings the +1.5 possibly into play. Chicago is only 12-19 on the road and 10-21 in day games, so even with Giolito on the mound, it seems like a good time to fade them. Brad Keller has been fairly solid for Kansas City in 2019 and has faced the White Sox three times already. He's allowed a total of six runs in 18 innings. Only one of those was at home though and he threw seven scoreless frames. Play KANSAS CITY on the RUN LINE AAA |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on GOLDEN STATE Golden State's string of less than enthralling performances continued in Game #3 as they lost 123-109. The defeat of course comes with some major caveats, those being the absences of both Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson (not to mention reserve Kevon Looney as well). The seriously short-handed Warriors ended up shooting just 39.6% from the field (a playoff low) and really had no answer for Toronto defensively, allowing them to shoot 52.4% from the field and make 17 three-pointers. We look for the Warriors to rebound in Game #4. Thompson will be back after missing a playoff game for the first time in his career. Toronto isn't going to shoot that well again as all five starters were in double figures as was reserve Fred Van Vleet. Remember that they shot just 37.2% in Game #2 after being right above 50% in Game #1. Steph Curry went for 47 points in Game #3, but won't need to match that production with Thompson back in the lineup. The Warriors are 13-5 ATS off their previous 18 ATS defeats and have dropped consecutive games in the playoffs just once, both coming in Houston. They have never dropped consecutive home playoff games under Kerr, so we will lay the points Friday. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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06-05-19 | Raptors +6 v. Warriors | Top | 123-109 | Win | 100 | 47 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TORONTO The bodies are certainly starting to pile up for Golden State. Already without Kevin Durant, they've now lost reserve forward Kevon Looney for the remainder of this series and Klay Thompson is injured too. Though Thompson has vowed to play in Game #3, we still don't like the idea of the Warriors laying this many points to a revenge-minded and healthy Raptors squad. Toronto has been the underdog five times in the playoffs. They've won three of the games straight up and it should have been four (blown Gm 1 lead vs. Milwaukee). They'll shoot better than 37.2% from the field here (FG% from Game 2), that's for sure. Golden State has been down by double digits in five straight games now. They're the ones who will struggle to score here, not just because they aren't close to 100 percent, but also because the Raptors play great defense. They held Golden State under their season average in Games 1 & 2. There have been only four games this entire postseason run where they've allowed more than 109 points. So taking the points would seem ideal here. Golden State is also 1-7-1 ATS off its last nine straight up victories. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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06-02-19 | Warriors v. Raptors -2 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TORONTO Toronto probably surprised a lot of people by winning Game 1, but not us. They had the home court advantage and with Golden State playing without Kevin Durant, the Warriors were ripe for the picking. Look for the Raptors to continue to ratchet up the defense here as they are giving up less than 97 points/game at home in the playoffs and there have been just eight games total where they've allowed more than 100 points. Game 1 was one of them, but that's to be expected vs. the Warriors. Still, without Durant, Golden State was held below its season average in scoring. They have lost all three games to Toronto this season, two of them taking place in Canada. The Raptors have covered the spread in their last four home games and last five games overall. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEEÂ The Bucks find themselves facing elimination tonight, which is certainly NOT a position they expected to be in after taking the first two games of the series. But they were a little lucky to win Game #1 remember (outscored Toronto 32-17 in 4th Quarter) and definitely lucky to cover. They rolled to a wire-to-wire 125-103 win and cover in Game #2, but then basically never led in either game in Toronto (even though Game #3 went to double overtime). Things figured to return to normal in Game #5, which was back at home, and they did look good early with Milwaukee taking an early 12-point lead. But then it was the Raptors turn to pull off an impressive comeback as they held the Bucks to just 67 points over the last three quarters. After the home team started the series 4-0 SU/ATS, not many are going to expect the road team to win two straight. But we wouldn't make the mistake of giving up on the Bucks, who we still feel are the better team and are also a perfect 9-0 against the spread this season on the road when coming off a straight up loss as a favorite. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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05-21-19 | Bucks -2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee has turned in one dominant game in the Eastern Conference Finals (Game 2), but mostly trailed in the other two, so in some regards they should feel fortunate to be up in the series. They did have a golden opportunity to "steal one" on the road Sunday, which would have given them an insurmountable 3-0 series lead, but they ultimately lost in double overtime. With Golden State having swept its way into the NBA Finals, there's a little bit of pressure on the Bucks now to end this series quickly. We should obviously not discount the Raptors, but a win here by the Bucks and this series goes back to Milwaukee for Game 5 with a chance to close it out. Defensively, Milwaukee continues to do a great job as it is allowing less than 40% shooting for the entire playoffs. Perhaps even more impressive is their 21-5 ATS record coming off a SU loss. They are the better team here. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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05-20-19 | Warriors -3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 119-117 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on GOLDEN STATE The Warriors broke the hearts of the Blazers with a come from behind victory in Game #2 and they may very well have broken their spirit by doing the same in Game #3. Both instances saw the reigning champs battle back from a double digit halftime deficit. Blowing leads like that - in consecutive games - is really tough to battle back from and down 0-3 in a series would seem like the ideal spot to fade such a team as no team in history has come back to win a series down 0-3, so Portland basically knows its season ended Saturday night. Unlike Game #2 (when we cashed the Blazers plus the points), they could not even cover the spread in Game #3, losing by 11 as their poor shooting continued. Assuming Golden State does not fall into yet another early hole, covering the spread here should not be a problem at all. They have incentive to sweep as it will give them more time off before the NBA Finals and maybe Kevin Durant can return for that series. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers -2 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PORTLAND Despite not playing all that well in Game #1, Portland was very much alive going into the fourth quarter. They only trailed by six. Golden State took it from there, outscoring the Blazers 39-23 the rest of the way for a comfortable 116-94 win and cover. We were happy with that result seeing as we'd laid the points with the Warriors. But for Game #2, we took Portland and the points. That proved to be the absolute right call as the Blazers led outright almost the entire way. They were up by 15 at halftime and up eight with just 4:30 left in the game. But as we all now know, they lost 114-111. That's a bitter pill to swallow, but at least Portland is back at home for Game #3, which helps soften the blow. They are 37-10 SU at home for the year, including 5-1 in the playoffs. Their scoring average jumps to 118.1 points/game at the Moda Center. Let us not forget the Warriors are still playing without Kevin Durant. They've gone 3-0 since his injury, but they're more likely to miss him on the road. After Game #2's non-cover, the Warriors are now 3-8 ATS following a their last 11 straight up victories. Portland HAS to have this one. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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05-16-19 | Blazers +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PORTLAND Portland probably couldn't have played any worse in Game 1. Yet they were only down six going into the fourth quarter. Golden State took it from there, outscoring the Blazers 39-23 the rest of the way for a comfortable 116-94 win and cover. We were happy with that result seeing as we'd laid the points with the Warriors. But Portland obviously wasn't and to make this a series they're going to need to start shooting a lot better than they have recently. They have a field goal percentage of only 41.3 the last five games, including a playoff low 36.1% in Game 1. Three-point shooting in particular is due to improve. History is on the Blazers side as well, at least this season, as they are a perfect 8-0 against the spread seeking revenge for a double digit road loss. Remember that this team won twice in Denver last round and the Nuggets had the league's best home record. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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05-15-19 | Raptors +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TORONTO Neither Eastern Conference Finalist had a very hard time in Round 1 with the Raptors advancing after only five games against the Magic and the Bucks sweeping the Pistons. Toronto needed seven games to get rid of Philadelphia in Round 2, however, with the series coming down to a heart-stopping shot by Kawhi Leonard. It was the first playoff buzzer beater in a winner take all game since the infamous Michael Jordan shot over Craig Ehlo 30 years ago. While the Raptors were playing until Sunday, Milwaukee has enjoyed a full week off since eliminating the Celtics in five games. They are 8-1 SU and ATS in the playoffs and have the home court edge in this series. But history shows they might come out a bit rusty for this one. Coming off similar rest between the first two series, they lost Game 1 to Boston here at home, dropping them to 2-4 ATS this season playing with three or more days rest. They are just 5-14-1 ATS their last 20 games in this situation. With the Raptors allowing less than 100 points/game in the playoffs, our recommendation is to take the points in Game 1. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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05-14-19 | Blazers v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 94-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on GOLDEN STATE Golden State is making its fifth straight Western Conference Finals appearance while Portland is here for the first time since 2000. The experience edge should ultimately prevail here in Game 1 and we're going to lay the points. It's easy to forget, but the Blazers were down 17 in the first half of their eventual Game 7 victory against Denver on Sunday. The Warriors, playing without Kevin Durant, eliminated Houston on Friday. The couple of extra days between series is a nice edge for Golden State as they have to keep going on sans Durant. They've got the edge in rest and home court. We have Houston rated stronger than Portland so this is one of those rare times a team (Golden State) is actually facing a weaker team after advancing. Even though they did win Game 7 in Denver, the Blazers are still only 24-23 SU on the road this season. They are 1-5 ATS following their last 6 straight up victories. They are just 9-22 ATS their last 31 trips into Oakland and that includes a 28-point loss earlier in the season. Play GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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05-12-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 100-96 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVER Going into each of Denver's two series thus far, we've stated the fact they had the home court advantage would be vital. Once again, we find them hosting a Game 7. The first round series against San Antonio ended with the Nuggets winning 90-86 here at the Pepsi Center. Though they won, it ended up being a terrible beat (we had Denver) as they blew the cover late (were -6.5). It was a game they led wire to wire and were up double digits much of the way. The reason the home court edge has been so crucial in these first two series is not only because Denver has such a dramatic home vs. road split, but so too have each of their opponents. The Nuggets have the best home record in the league at 39-9 straight up, but are just 22-23 on the road. San Antonio had the second best home record in the league in the regular season, but was just 16-25 on the road. Portland isn't quite as dramatic, but they are 37-10 at home vs. just 23-23 on the road. Denver has lost one home game in each round, but notable is that they have given up 98 points or less four of the last five games here. They'll shoot a lot better today than they did in Game #6 simply because of the return home. Portland has followed up its last five SU wins with an ATS loss. Play on DENVERÂ AAA |
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05-10-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -7 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON We'll look to stay perfect in this series by going with the Rockets in Game #6. Now laying points may not seem like an especially fruitful venture, considering the way this series has gone so far. All five games have been decided by six points or less, however, the home team is 5-0 straight up as well. The Rockets won Game #3 by five points (OT) and Game #4 by four points. But they are this big a favorite for a reason and that reason is Kevin Durant's calf injury, which will almost certainly keep him out of Game #6. No one should ever root for a player to get injured, but Rockets fans have to feel like this is a bit of "poetic justice" considering this is exactly what happened to them with Chris Paul in last year's Western Conference Finals. After losing Paul, the Rockets lost the next two games and the rest is history. Now they'll hope history repeats itself with the Warriors and Durant. This is the most points Golden State has ever gotten under Steve Kerr in the playoffs. Durant was leading the league in scoring in the playoffs at 35.4 points/game, so the loss of him can't be overstated. The Warriors did not look like the same team once he went down. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in this series and 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 home games. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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05-09-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers -4 | Top | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PORTLAND Look for a big time rebound from the Blazers at home in Game #6 Thursday night. They were blown out in Game #5, losing 124-98. It was easily their worst game in the playoffs and it put them behind the proverbial 8-ball as they'll now have to win the next two games to make the Western Conference Finals. But winning here at home should come pretty easy. Our feeling, much like Denver's first round series against San Antonio, is that home court advantage would play an extremely important role in this series. The Nuggets have the best home record in the league, but are a below .500 team on the road. The Blazers are 36-10 SU in home games this year, though they did lose Game 4 here. But we should see across the board improvement from Game #5 where they only shot 36.7%, easily their worst field goal percentage of any playoff game yet. Something we've harped on previously is that Denver is way worse defensively on the road. They allow less than 103 points/game at the Pepsi Center. On the road, that number jumps to 110.8. The Blazers are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a double digit road loss. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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05-08-19 | Celtics v. Bucks -9 | Top | 91-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE It's all over but the shouting in Boston as the Celtics are falling apart before our very eyes. Kyrie Irving seems to have lost the trust of his teammates as he's shot them right out of this series. Not that the rest of the team is doing much. In the last three games, Boston has shot 103 of 257, which is barely above 40%. That simply won't get it done against a team like Milwaukee, who just put up 123 points in both games at Boston. The Bucks have clearly emerged as the better team here and may very well be getting Malcolm Brogden back for Game #5 as well. With the series back in Milwaukee, what chance do the Celtics really have. The Bucks are already a league best +12.1 points per game at home this season. This has all the makings of the Celtics waving the proverbial white flag. Milwaukee's superiority just wasn't taken seriously enough. This team is legit. They've gone 38-18-2 ATS their last 58 games. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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05-06-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -1.5 | Top | 113-101 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOSTON Boston may have looked like the better team in Game 1, but since then Milwaukee has taken control of the series with back to back wins where they scored 123 points. The Celtics shot poorly in both losses, but we'll back them here in a must win spot in Game 4 at home. You not only have to expect better shooting here, but better defense as well. Yes, the Bucks were #1 in the league in scoring in the regular season and have had their way offensively the last two games. But the three-point shooting we've seen from them in the last two games is bound to "taper off." They were north of 40 percent from behind the arc in Games #2 and #3, going 35 of 84. That's high volume, which is not new for them, but the percentage and number of makes is more than usual. There have been only four times all season where Boston has lost three or more straight games. All we have to do here is basically lay a bucket in order for them to avoid doing so in what is obviously their biggest game all year. They've lost consecutive home games just twice all season. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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05-05-19 | Nuggets +3 v. Blazers | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVER Nobody wants to lose in the NBA Playoffs, but going down in four overtimes is particularly gut-wrenching. As difficult to "swallow" as Game 3's loss may be for Denver, we like them to bounce back on Sunday. We did have the Nuggets in Game #3 and sure enough they did cover for us, losing by only three points (140-137) as a 4.5-point underdog. Obviously, Friday's game going four overtimes is going to have an effect on both teams here. At least it's a night game, so there will be about 48 hours to recover. Portland is 0-4 ATS off its last four SU wins here in the playoffs. The underdog has also gone 5-2 ATS the past seven meetings between them and Denver. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS their last four visits to the Moda Center. They've also been the ones to cover five of the last seven meetings and the only two exceptions were Game 2 (shot poorly) and a game back in January where they won by three, but were caught laying -4.5. Take the points. Play on DENVERÂ AAA |
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05-05-19 | Raptors v. 76ers -1.5 | Top | 101-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA The line has jumped the fence for Game 4 (Philly now favored). While that might mean "less value" on the 76ers, it also means public sentiment has now clearly swung against the Raptors, a team whose past playoff failings may be set to catch up with them again. The 76ers obviously outplayed the Raptors in Game 3, beating them 116-95 and looking like a completely different team on offense than what we saw in the first two games. Perhaps that should have been something we all saw coming as the Sixers do average 118.5 points/game at home, which is noticeably higher than their scoring average on the road (which is just 111.8 points/game). You won't be surprised to learn that the results have been much better for Philly at home compared to the road. At home, they have gone 34-11 and outscored opponents by 8.6 points/game. On the road, they have gone just 23-22 while actually being outscored over the course of the season. Philly has gone 6-1 straight up and against the spread since losing Game 1 in the first round. The line jumping the fence is also notable because the favorite has covered in 21 of the previous 30 meetings. The home team has covered seven of the last nine. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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05-04-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -3.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON This is obviously as close to must win as it gets for Houston. No team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a series. But lots of teams have won when down 0-2 and they return home. That's the situation for the Rockets here. The good news is James Harden is fine after sustaining an eye injury in Game #2. Despite missing time, Harden still had his best shooting night of any playoff game. It's not as if the Rockets were outclassed in either game at Golden State. Both losses were by just six points. Remember that they took three of four from the Warriors in the regular season and were up three games to two in last year's Western Conference Final. They beat Golden State both times here at home in the regular season. They're also 7-1-1 ATS the last 9 home games. They won the three first round home games by a combined 59 points. The Warriors have failed to cover off any of their last five ATS wins. They are also 1-6 ATS off their last 7 SU wins. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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05-03-19 | Nuggets +4 v. Blazers | Top | 137-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVER Coming into this series, we said that home court advantage would play a big role, just like it did in the Nuggets' first round series against the Spurs. There, Denver did drop Game 1 at home, but won its next three at the Pepsi Center and wound up advancing after the series went a full seven games. Despite a quick turnaround between series, Denver was able to beat Portland in Game #1, 121-113. But then they lost Game #2, 97-90, so we're all squared up going back to Portland. Homecourt is still important, but it's difficult to imagine Denver playing any worse than it did in Game #2. They shot jut 34.7% overall and were a hideous 6 of 29 from behind the three-point line. They even missed 10 of 26 free throw attempts. We like them getting points in Game #3 as they have covered five of their last seven trips here and they are 6-2-1 ATS the last nine matchups with Portland, no matter the location. Play on DENVER AAA |
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05-02-19 | Raptors -1 v. 76ers | Top | 95-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TORONTO Toronto and Philadelphia had very similar Round 1 experiences. Both lost their respective Game 1's, on their home floor. But then both bounced back to win the next four games and advance. Toronto did so with defense, holding Orlando to an average of 89 points/game in the four wins. Philadelphia did so more with offense, averaging 127.5 points/game vs. Brooklyn. Through two games, this second round series has more closely resembled Toronto's style of play. The Sixers have failed to score 100 points in either game, though they did take Game 2 in Toronto by a score of 94-89. That was their first win in 15 tries up in Canada. Now we move to the City of Brotherly Love. While the 76ers may now have homecourt advantage, we believe the Raptors are still the better team. Philly is a little banged up in the frontcourt as both Joel Embiid and Mike Scott continue to battle injuries. The Raptors have now allowed fewer than 100 points in six straight games. We expect players such as Danny Green and Marc Gasol to play a lot better than they did in Game 2. Those two combined to make only 2 of 14 field goal attempts and the Raptors bench totaled only five points on 2 of 11 shooting. Should be a much better team effort tonight. Toronto is still on a 14-5 ATS run vs. Philadelphia and the last time they dropped back to back games ATS was late March (10-4 ATS overall since). Play on TORONTO AAA |
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04-29-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVER Denver dropped Game 1 of the last series (vs. San Antonio), but we don't see that happening here. Like the Spurs series, home court advantage figures to play a key role here in Round 2 vs. Portland. The Nuggets had the best home record in the league during the regular season and are now 37-8 straight up at the Pepsi Center. The got "backdoored" in Game 7 by San Antonio, winning by only four in a game they were favored to win by 6.5 points. But don't let that unlucky ATS result cloud the fact they led that game by double digits most of the way. Denver plays a lot better defense at home too. They gave up only 86 points in Game 7 after giving up only 90 in Game 5. For the year, they give up just 102.9 points per game at home, which is more than seven points less than what they give up on the road. Portland isn't quite as subpar as San Antonio on the road, but the Blazers record away from home is only 22-21. The Nuggets were 3-1 against the Blazers in the regular season, although every game was close. But the only time they lost to them was in the second game of a home and home, in Portland. The Trail Blazers are just 1-5-1 ATS the past seven meetings and they now have a problem in the frontcourt. Jusuf Nurkic is already out for the year and now Enes Kanter is dealing with a separated shoulder. Play on DENVERÂ AAA |
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04-28-19 | Rockets +6 v. Warriors | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOUSTON It's a familiar matchup on the Western Conference side of the draw, only this year the Rockets and Warriors are playing a round earlier. Last year, the Rockets took the Warriors to the brink of elimination and had a lead at home in Game 7 before wilting. Remember they also didn't have Chris Paul for the final two games of that series. Houston may not have the home court advantage this time around, but they do have Paul back in the lineup and come in as the hotter team. While Golden State surprisingly needed six games to eliminate the Clippers in the first round, the Rockets vanquished the Jazz in just five and are now 10-2 SU/9-3 ATS the past 12 games. One of the two straight up losses was by one point (regular season finale). The Warriors have not been a good team to bet on this season and they are 17-26-1 ATS at home. Taking the points in Game 1 looks to be the way to go. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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04-27-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 86-90 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVERÂ Historically speaking, home teams enjoy a decided edge in Game 7's in the NBA Playoffs (101-27 straight up record in shot-clock era). Look for that trend to continue with our lone Game 7 of this year's 1st round as Denver hosts San Antonio. The Nuggets are off a 17-point loss in Game 6. But before that, they'd won the last two games by a combined 32 points. Only one game in the entire series has been decided by less than nine points and each of the last three have been decided by 14 points or more. Being able to get a Game 7 at home is what Denver worked for in the regular season. They have the best home record in the league at 36-8 straight up and the numbers confirm they are a much better team here. Not only does scoring jump 6.2 points/game from road to home, their number of points allowed drops by 6.8 points/game. San Antonio (17-27 SU) happens to have the worst road record of any playoff team. We look for bench scoring and three-point shooting to be the key edge for the Nuggets in this winner take all game. Lay the points. Play on DENVER AAA |
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04-25-19 | Yankees v. Angels +1.5 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* RUN LINE play on the LA ANGELS +1.5 For the second straight series, the Angels find themselves in an unenviable position. As the home team, they've lost the first three games of a four game series. Now in this exact same scenario, we played them Sunday against Seattle and they won. It was an easy win too as they coasted to an 8-6 victory (led 8-1 going into the 9th) behind Jaime Barria. But tonight they face the Yankees. As daunting a prospect as that may sound, two of the Angels three losses in this series have come by one run. Last night was brutal as they blew a 5-run lead and lost 6-5. Now 1-9 the L10 games, five of those losses for the Angels have come by exactly one run. So with the +1.5 now an option (wasn't Sunday vs. Seattle), we'll take it. Look for Trevor Cahill to pitch better than he has recently while we expect the opposite from Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka. Three of the Yankees last four wins have been by one run. At this price, the run line is a tremendous value Thursday. Play on LA ANGELS +1.5 AAA |
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04-25-19 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Spurs | Top | 103-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DENVER The Nuggets were very fortunate not to be down 3-0 in this series as not only did they drop two of the first three games, but their one win (Game 2) saw them erase a 19-point second half deficit, mostly in the 4th quarter where they outscored the Spurs 39-23. But since falling behind by double digits again, early in Game 4, Denver really seems to have taken control of this series. They've won the last two games by a combined 32 points and now have a shot at closing out the Spurs tonight in Game 6. It is a road game, but the Nuggets have already won once here in San Antonio. Game 5 on Tuesday was definitely Denver's best showing in the series. They led by as many as 30 points. Nikola Jokic is almost averaging a triple double in his first ever playoff series and the Spurs appear to have no answer for him. Denver has pretty clearly been the better of these two teams most of this year. The Spurs are only 1-6 ATS their last 7 home games. Play on DENVERÂ AAA |
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04-24-19 | Jazz +8 v. Rockets | Top | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UTAH Utah stayed alive by winning Game 4, handily. They beat the Rockets 107-91 and that margin of victory should have them confident enough to head into Game #5 with a sense that further extending their season is a possibility. We're not saying the Jazz will win this one, but taking the points is the right way to go. Houston did not shoot the ball well either game in Salt Lake City. They shot 38.4% as a team in Game #3 with James Harden missing his first 15 attempts from the field. Then they shot 35.4% in Game #4, collectively missing their final 13 attempts from three-point range. Yes, the series now shifts back to Houston. But the Jazz are going to compete here a lot more than they did in either Games #1 and #2. This is too many points for Houston to lay to a desperate Utah team. Play on UTAH AAA |
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04-23-19 | Thunder +3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 115-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OKC It's probably fair to say that the majority of first round series in the NBA Playoffs have gone "according to script." The way the Rockets handled the Jazz in the first three games of that series was maybe a little surprising. But probably not as surprising to most as the fact that it's Portland up three games to one on Oklahoma City. This was a series where the lower seeded team was actually favored to advance. The Thunder swept the regular season series, winning all four times against the Blazers. Portland also has a key player injured (Jusuf Nurkic). Game 4 is what probably jumped out to most as the Blazers became the first road team to win a game in the series. They held Russell Westbrook without a basket in the second half, which is really stunning. We know that the Thunder have lost the public's trust, but not ours as we like them plus the points facing elimination. Remember they actually closed as the favorite for Game #2 here in Portland, so there's some good value. Play on OKC AAA |
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04-22-19 | Rockets -2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 91-107 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOUSTON We also look for Houston to close out Utah Monday night. It's pretty clear that the Jazz are overmatched in this series and Game #3 was basically their "death knell." Losing at home on a night where James Harden shot the ball horribly is not something that can be overcome nor is a 3-0 series deficit. Going back to the end of the regular season, the Rockets have won and covered 9 of the last 10 games. The only loss was by one point to Oklahoma City, which in retrospect was the worst possible thing to happen to the Jazz. That loss caused Houston to drop a spot in the standings, setting up this matchup. Utah would have been a lot better off playing Portland. The Jazz did beat the Rockets in a couple of early season meetings, but have since dropped five straight to them. Like the Pistons, they have shot very poorly in the playoffs (40.1 FG%) and are averaging less than 100 points/game (96.3). We don't even have to lay a big number here like we do with the Bucks. You can bank on Harden having a better shooting night than he did in Game #3. The Rockets look like one of the best teams in the league right now. Play on HOUSTON. AAA |
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04-22-19 | Bucks -12 v. Pistons | Top | 127-104 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE We expect both series to close out tonight, starting in Detroit where the Pistons appear as ill-prepared for the playoffs as any team in recent memory. They have been completely dominated by the Bucks, losing all three games by 16 or more points and there's no reason to believe Game #4 will be any different. Milwaukee is completely superior in every way here and not even the return of Blake Griffin can change that as he's not completely healthy. In the series, the Pistons have been held to an average of 96 points per game on 38.0% shooting, showing that Milwaukee (the East's highest scoring team) can also play some defense. The Bucks are #1 in defensive efficiency in the league in addition to being #1 overall in scoring. They have outscored the Pistons by 72 points through three games. Giannis Antetokounmpo only scored 14 points Saturday, his fewest in any game since January and the Bucks still won by 16. Detroit hasn't won a playoff game since '08 and that certainly won't change here. Play on MILWAUKEE. AAA |
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04-21-19 | Warriors v. Clippers +9 | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LA CLIPPERS The Clippers have trailed big in all three games so they should feel lucky to only be down 2-1 in the series. Game 2 saw them pull off the greatest comeback in NBA Playoff history, at least in terms of margin overcome (31 points). But they were never really in Game #3. Golden State led by 17 after one quarter and was up 33 entering the fourth. The Warriors have enjoyed a lead of at least 19 points in all three games. But Game #4 should be different. The Clippers shot poorly in Game #3, especially from deep where they went 7 of 32. They shot 37.2% overall, which won't cut it against the Warriors. That's surprising too as LA has been a strong home team all season. Golden State was obviously motivated going into Game #3 after blowing the 31-point lead in Game #2. Will that same motivation be present today? The Warriors are 4-10 ATS off a their previous 14 ATS victories. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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04-21-19 | Celtics -2 v. Pacers | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOSTON We look for Boston to finish off the sweep Sunday. It's pretty clear to us at this point that Indiana just can't get consistent scoring nor can they beat Boston. It's not just this series you see. There were also two meetings late in the regular season where the Celtics dominated. Four of the five losses have seen the Pacers held under 100 points. Now they have held the halftime lead in two of the three games in this series and only trailed by two in the other. But they are averaging only 35 points in the second half and that will obviously not cut the mustard. Indiana has only won 4 of its last 12 games overall, so in a way you could see this early playoff flameout coming. In the regular season, it was the defense that was costing the Pacers down the stretch. They allowed 11 of their last 13 opponents to score at least 102 points. Now its the offense that is averaging only 87 points per game in the playoffs/ The Celtics underachieved in the regular season, but are clearly hitting their stride now. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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04-18-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SAN ANTONIO San Antonio very easily - and probably should - be up 2-0 in this series. After a superb defensive effort allowed them to take Game 1, the Spurs were up by 19 in Game 2 and appeared well on their way to taking both games in Denver. But then Jamal Murray went off for the Nuggets, scoring 21 of his 24 points in the fourth quarter (had started the game 0 for 8). The Nuggets outscored the Spurs 39-23 in the 4th and now we head back to San Antonio tied at one game apiece. While having the league's best home record, Denver is below .500 on the road. San Antonio's home vs. road split is even more pronounced. They should actually be thrilled to have earned a split in Denver, given a 16-25 SU road record. At home they are 32-9 and shoot 41.9% from three-point range. Defensively, the Spurs have made major strides the last couple months. Before the 4th quarter happened Tuesday, it looked like they might hold Denver under 100 pts in two straight games. Going back to 2012, the Nuggets have lost 13 straight here in San Antonio. Play on SAN ANTONIO AAA |
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04-17-19 | Pistons +15 v. Bucks | Top | 99-120 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DETROIT The Pistons appeared ill-prepared for their 1st postseason game since 2016. Playing without Blake Griffin, they were no match for top seed Milwaukee, who thumped them 121 to 86 as 15-point favorites. Detroit last won a playoff game in 2008. If they continue to play the way they did Sunday, that streak will continue into next year. It's not a shocker to see the number at where it is for Game 2. Few will give the Pistons a shot Wednesday, let alone the rest of the series. They've played the Bucks five times this year and five times they have lost, four of those coming by 10 or more points. The three games in Milwaukee have seen them lose by 35, 23 and 23 points. But as the Clippers showed Monday, anything is possible in the playoffs. After a blowout loss is often the best time to bet on a team (zig zag theory!) and while we don't see Detroit winning Game 2, we do expect them to cover. While Griffin seems unlikely to play, Andre Drummond won't be ejected again like he was in Game 1. Generally speaking, this is too many points to lay in the playoffs and the Pistons will play better this time. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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04-16-19 | Magic v. Raptors -9.5 | Top | 82-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TORONTO Toronto's atrocious history in Game 1's continued with a shocking 104-101 loss to Orlando on Saturday. With that result, the Raptors are now 2-13 SU all-time in Game 1's, including 1-10 in Round 1. Kyle Lowry pulled another playoff "disappearing act," in being held SCORELESS for the game on 0 for 7 shooting (all but one attempt was a three-pointer). But that's all water under the bridge now and history suggests the Raptors bounce back Tuesday in Game 2. Outside of series against LeBron James' Cleveland teams, Toronto has won four straight Game 2s. All four were played at home. Lowry has his own personal history of following terrible playoff performances with a good one. The Raptors actually outshot the Magic overall in Game 1, but were worse from behind the arc and at the free throw line. You can't deny that Orlando has been "better than advertised" in the second half of the season, however, they got their road win. The zig zag theory isn't perfect, but I'll side with Toronto here. Remember they have Kawhi Leonard this year. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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04-15-19 | Nets v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 123-145 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA Forget about the talk about cell phones, Philadelphia was flat out embarrassed on its home court in Game 1, losing to the Nets 111-102. Aside from early in the 1st quarter, the Sixers never led and were down by as many 17. They should bounce back for Game 2. They certainly aren't likely to miss 22 of 25 three-pointers again like they did Saturday. Joel Embiid's knee remains a question mark, but it's hard not to like the Sixers in this spot considering a 31-11 SU home record and they are 31-15 ATS L46 here against teams that have losing road records. Brooklyn is still only 20-22 straight up on the road this year and is probably "content" having taken Game 1. The Nets got 59 points from their bench in Game 1. Similar to Philly's woeful three-point shooting, that is unlikely to be repeated tonight. The 76ers are still the better team and should win comfortably at home. Play on PHILADELPHIAÂ AAA |
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04-14-19 | Jazz v. Rockets -6 | Top | 90-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON Houston ended up finishing fourth in the Western Conference, but this was one of the hottest teams in the league down the stretch. They'd won and covered six in a row before losing by one to Oklahoma City in the final regular season game. That one loss is what dropped them from third to fourth and while it means playing a gritty Utah team, the Rockets simply have too much talent to falter here. No team was better in the second half of the season. They went 20-5 posting the best net efficiency rating (+10.7) as they were second overall in both offensive and defensive efficiency. James Harden leads all players in scoring with a 36.1 points per game average this season. Remember the Rockets eliminated the Jazz from last year's playoffs, winning in just five games. The four wins were all of the double digit variety and came by an average of 14.5 points per game. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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04-09-19 | Blazers -9.5 v. Lakers | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PORTLAND The Lakers are 2-1 against the Blazers, but that's with LeBron James playing all three games. The King was officially shutdown for the year last week and his teammates packed it long before that. Though they've won two straight, beating the Clippers by five and Jazz by four, the Lakers have been a terrible team to bet on this season. Only the Knicks have a worse ATS mark. Four would-be starters, including James, aren't playing anymore. Without Jusuf Nurkic, the Blazers are a little shorthanded as well, but they just got back C.J. McCollum and will be looking to clinch homecourt advantage for the first round of the playoffs tonight. All they need is a win. While covering the spread might seem like more of a challenge, Portland is 10-2 ATS its last 12 road games against teams that give up 110 or more points per game. They win big tonight. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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04-08-19 | Texas Tech v. Virginia -1 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA We are guaranteed to have a first time national champion on Monday when Texas Tech takes on Virginia. Texas Tech beat Michigan State 61-51 in one national semifinal while Virginia outlasted Auburn 63-62 in the other. It should be pointed out that Virginia led their game by as much as 10 points before watching that lead go away and then needing the refs to bail them out in the end. We think that due to the nature of the win against Auburn, Virginia isn't getting the proper credit here. Our own line was between 4.5 and 5 points, so there's value on the favorite. The Cavaliers spent much of the year ranked #1 in the country and when they weren't, they were close to the top. Texas Tech has saved its best basketball for the right time, but Virginia will be the toughest opponent they've faced all year. Virginia may not have covered Saturday, but they are 16-5 ATS the 21 times they have been coming off an ATS loss. Texas Tech is just 1-6 ATS vs. the ACC. This will be an ugly game, but Virginia will be the winner. Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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04-07-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers -3 | Top | 108-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND This line has already risen quite dramatically, but we're still anticipating a big Portland win. This is the second leg of a home and home between the Blazers and Nuggets. Denver won at home, 119-110, on Friday as Portland was short-handed. They played without Jusuf Nurkic, C.J. McCollum and Seth Curry. Damian Lillard was held to 14 points on 3 of 14 shooting. Even without the some of those key players still, the Blazers should bounce back at home. Denver could rest some of its starters, which is why the line is on the move. Portland is also 30-9 at home this season and hoping to avoid what would be a season sweep by the Nuggets. The first three games have all been decided by single digits with two of them by a total of 4 points. So it's not as if Portland hasn't been competitive. They need a strong finish to the regular season to clinch home court advantage for the opening round of the playoffs. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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04-06-19 | Texas Tech +2.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 61-51 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TEXAS TECH Playing both Michigan State games last weekend worked out well for us as we hit the Under in both. After having little difficulty in defeating Minnesota and LSU, Duke was obviously going to present Sparty with a much greater challenge and sure enough that was a one-point win (68-67) where MSU only shot 42.9% from the field. That was the 1st time they had been matched up against a team on par with them defensively and it resulted in a Tournament-low for points scored. When it comes to defense, no team has a better efficiency rating than Texas Tech, who just held the #1 offensive team in the country (Gonzaga) to 69 points on 42.4% shooting. Before that, the Red Raiders held Michigan to 44 points (32.7 FG%), Buffalo to 58 points (36.5 FG%) and Northern Kentucky to 57 points (37.1 FG%). So tonight should be another new low in points for Michigan State in the Tourney. Texas Tech is a perfect 4-0 ATS in this Tournament, winning the last two games as underdogs, so they're used to being in this position. Before upsetting Gonzaga in the Elite Eight, they'd won by 15 or more in each Tourney game with the showings against both Buffalo and Michigan being especially exemplary. Both teams have been great against the spread of late. But Texas Tech is the call here thanks to that defense. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA |
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04-06-19 | Auburn v. Virginia -5 | Top | 62-63 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA It's certainly going to be a contrast of styles in this first Final Four matchup with the high-flying Auburn attack going against the methodical pace Virginia likes to set. Ultimately, something has to give and we believe defense will win out in the end. That means Virginia, who has been one of the top teams in College Basketball all season, as opposed to an Auburn team that saved its best basketball for the Tournament. The Tigers have already downed Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky thanks to an incredible display of three-point shooting. But they have not yet had to go against a team that guards the three-point line as well as Virginia does (28.7 3-pt % allowed). Remember Auburn lost one of its top scorers - Chuma Okeke - in the Sweet 16. Without him, they were still able to defeat Kentucky, but that's an opponent they are very familiar with. Virginia is a different story. Lost in the shuffle here is the fact the Cavaliers have a higher offensive efficiency rating than Auburn. They also only turn it over nine times per game and do a good job of getting to the free throw line. When they get to the FT line, they convert at a 74% clip. Virginia also actually shoots a better percentage from three-point range (for the season) compared to Auburn. The lone 1-seed still standing gets the job done Saturday night. Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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04-05-19 | Heat -2.5 v. Wolves | Top | 109-111 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MIAMI It's unusual to say, but Miami is probably glad that this very crucial game is taking place on the road. After dropping a decision at home to Boston two nights ago, the Heat's home record fell to 18-22 straight up and 15-23-2 against the spread. On the road, they are 20-18 SU and 23-15 ATS. You don't see a team with a better record on the road than at home very often, but this is definitely an instance of that. The Heat come into this game a 1/2 game back of both Brooklyn and Orlando. They need to pass at least one of those two teams to get into the playoffs. Minnesota should provide them such an opportunity. The Timberwolves already know when their season will end and that's a week from now in Denver, the final game of the regular season. For the 13th time in 14 years, they aren't going to the playoffs. They did win Wednesday night at Dallas, but have put together back to back wins just one time since the All Star Break. That came in a pair of home games against Washington and New York, two very bad teams. Miami has to have this one and they'll get it. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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04-05-19 | Blue Jackets v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NY RANGERS +1.5 A season that was supposed to be bad, and was, will conclude for the Rangers tomorrow night. They have two games to get through before the offseason and up first is the home finale against Columbus. For the Blue Jackets, tonight's game has tremendous meaning. With two games left, they are tied with Montreal for the final spot left in the playoffs. Because they have more ROW (regulation + OT wins) than the Habs, Columbus owns the tiebreak. So a win tonight puts them in the playoffs. Because of that the money line is inflated. Because of the inflated money line, a chance to play the Rangers at +1.5 opens up. As rough of a season as it's been in NY, the Rangers have suffered 13 losses in extra time. A tie at the end of regulation is all that we need here. A quarter of their games have gone to OT this year. Additionally, they've suffered 10 one-goal losses in regulation. Play on NY RANGERS AAA |
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04-05-19 | Spurs -6 v. Wizards | Top | 129-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SAN ANTONIO San Antonio is in 8th place in the Western Conference, which would mean a first round series against Golden State. No team wants to be the first to draw the Warriors, so expect the Spurs to do everything they can to move up. That starts with winning this game in Washington against a Wizards team that is just playing out the string. It is likely the Wizards will finish this season with their lowest win total since 2012-13. They just lost here at home to Chicago after blowing an eight-point fourth quarter lead. That's demoralizing. As for San Antonio's motivation, they will have plenty. Greg Popovich was tossed 63 seconds into an eventual 113-85 loss to the Nuggets on Wednesday. Expect him and his team to respond like you might think. The Spurs shoot a league-best 39.2% from three-point range, so they should bury a Wizards team that is among the very worst in the league defensively. Play on SAN ANTONIO AAAÂ |
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04-03-19 | Knicks v. Magic -12.5 | Top | 100-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ORLANDO The four-team race for the last three spots in the Eastern Conference Playoffs (will be one team left out) is really heating up. Orlando has one fewer game remaining than Detroit, Brooklyn and Miami, which is a problem considering they are the ones currently on the "outside looking in." All four teams lost on Monday after all four had won on Saturday. So that means no ground was made up by the Magic and they still trail the Heat by a half game with only four left to play. But they have a golden opportunity to make up some ground Wednesday when they host the league-worst Knicks. (The three teams Orlando is chasing also play at home tonight, but against top five teams from the East). We look for Orlando to win big here. New York is off a rare win on Monday, which will make them prone to a letdown. There's no point for the Knicks to keep winning at this point and risk harming their draft position. This is obviously a lot of points to lay with a Magic team that's not normally this large of a favorite. But not only have they won seven straight home games, four of the last five wins have been by double digits and the last one was by 21 over Philadelphia. The Magic also have revenge for a five-point loss at the Garden back in February. Play on ORLANDO AAA |
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04-02-19 | Nuggets +8 v. Warriors | Top | 102-116 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DENVER Since making an early season statement at Golden State's expense, Denver has not fared well in two subsequent meetings. They lost at home 142-111 in January and then 122-105 out in Oakland last month. The Nuggets 1-2 YTD record against the Warriors is the difference in the standings right now as GSW comes in one game ahead in the race for the #1 seed. Denver suffered a pretty embarrassing home loss to Washington in its last game as they were held to only 90 points total and 28 in the second half. Whether or not that was looking ahead to this game we don't know, but look for a much better performance tonight. Will Denver win? Not sure. But they can definitely stay well within this generous number set by the oddsmakers. Golden State has a poor ATS record overall this season (32-43-1) and especially at home (14-23-1). We're not sure what it is about Tuesday, but the Warriors are 3-19 ATS at home on Tuesday nights the past three seasons. They've lost four of their last eight home games outright. Take the points tonight. Play on DENVERÂ AAA |
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03-30-19 | Purdue v. Virginia -4 | Top | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA Virginia is our top side of the entire tournament. This is a team that continues to get less respect than it deserves. It's easy to understand why. Last year saw them suffer the indignity of being the first #1 seed to ever lose to a #16 seed. But that embarrassment aside, the Cavaliers have arguably been the best team in College Basketball the last two years. This tournament has seen them play the same kind of defense we saw in the regular season. The regular season saw UVA hold its opponents to the fewest number of points per game in the country. They allow just 54.8 PPG for the year and just held both Oklahoma and Oregon under that number. Purdue is 3-0 ATS in the tournament and made a record 40 three-pointers through three games. Expect that hot shooting to come to an end Saturday. The Boilermakers shooting in the last two games in particular (Villanova, Tennessee) was quite other-worldly. But Virginia isn't just a step up in class in terms of the kind of defense they'll face, it's a massive step up from both Villanova and Tennessee. The fact Purdue won their last game by 5 and Virginia by only 4 is a little misleading. The Boilers did lead by as much as 18 points, but also needed OT to get Tennessee. Virginia led Oregon virtually wire to wire and didn't allow a field goal over the final 5:43. Purdue is 0-5-1 ATS after allowing 90 or more points the last game. Virginia is 39-19-1 ATS following a straight up win. Play on VIRGINIAÂ AAA |
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03-30-19 | Blazers v. Pistons -5 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DETROIT Portland made us look a little foolish last night by beating Atlanta by 20 points. We totally overestimated the Hawks in that situation, which with the benefit of hindsight seems like a bad idea all around. But after beating Chicago and Atlanta, the Blazers now step up to face Detroit. Unlike those last two Portland opponents, the Pistons are trying to make the playoffs. They're 6th in the East, but the margin for error is still slim. Portland finds itself playing its third road game in four days, without Jusuf Nurkic. Again, Nurkic's absence turned out not to be a big deal against the Bulls and Hawks. But Detroit will make Portland pay. The Pistons have covered five straight and just beat Orlando by 17 in an impressive win two nights ago. The Blazers are 1-6 SU/ATS in the second of back to back road games this year. Not only does Portland not have Nurkic the rest of the season, C.J. McCollum is out of the lineup as well. This team is severely shorthanded, not rested and on the road. That's a lousy combination when facing a better than average opponent. Detroit is 24-13 in home games where they see a dramatic increase on the offensive end. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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03-29-19 | Blazers v. Hawks +3 | Top | 118-98 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ATLANTA The Hawks are a live dog in this situation as Portland is still adjusting to life without Jusuf Nurkic. Perhaps inspired by their injured teammate, the Blazers did win two nights ago by a score of 118-98. But that was against a terrible Chicago team. Nurkic isn't coming back as he suffered a horrible season-ending leg injury in Monday's double overtime victory against Brooklyn. His absence wasn't felt against the Bulls, but will be here in Atlanta. It's been a trying week with a double overtime game, never mind also losing arguably their best player not named Damian Lillard. Nurkic's replacement, Enes Kanter, is a major liability on the defensive end for a team that is already the weakest of the eight Western Conference playoff teams on that end of the floor. The Blazers road record this season is only 18-18 SU, a far cry from their 29-9 SU mark at home. By the way, Atlanta has quietly won three straight games. Two of those wins were against Philly and Utah. They are 7-2 ATS the last nine games overall. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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03-28-19 | Oregon v. Virginia -8 | Top | 49-53 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on VIRGINIAÂ Favorites have dominated this year's NCAA Tournament and there's no better way to illustrate that than to point to the fact there's only one team seeded lower than fifth left. Fourteen of the 16 teams seeded four or higher have gotten to the Sweet 16 and the other two were still favored to win in Round 2. That lone team left seeded lower than 5th would be Oregon, a 12-seed. But not only were they favored to win in the last round, they opened as a slight favorite against Wisconisin in the first round. But it's a bit step up for the Ducks in this round as they draw Virginia. This will undoubtedly be Oregon's toughest test in a run that has seen them win and cover 10 straight games. In the past five NCAA Tournaments, 1 seeds are 14-1 SU in the Sweet 16, covering the spread 12 times. No 12 seed has ever beaten a 1 seed in this round and most of the games haven't even been close. Virginia gives up the fewest points in the country and seems to be over the mental hurdle of losing last year in the first round to MD-Baltimore County, which was the first time ever that 1 seed lost to a 16. Oregon did a nice job defensively against Wisconsin and UC Irvine, but neither was/is a good offensive team. A little known fact about Virginia is they are #2 in the country in offensive efficiency. Play on VIRGINIAÂ AAA |
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03-28-19 | Florida State v. Gonzaga -7 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 73 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on GONZAGA Gonzaga has looked quite impressive so far. Unlike the other #1 seeds, they never trailed in the first round. Instead, they laid a severe beatdown on Farleigh Dickinson, 87-49, a game that was never close (53-17 lead at halftime). The Bulldogs also didn't have much problem with Baylor in the Round of 32. They won that game 83-71 and had a 16-point lead at halftime. Thursday, they'll face the team that eliminated them from last year's Sweet 16, that being Florida State. But last year's meeting saw Gonzaga coming in at less than full strength as Killian Tillie couldn't suit up and that had a dramatic effect on the team according to coach Mark Few. This time, the narrative is flipped as Florida State will have to play without Phil Cofer, who is back home for his father's funeral. It's hard enough to beat Gonzaga at full strength, let alone short handed. This Gonzaga team averages 88.6 points per game while shooting 53.2 percent. Both marks are easily tops in the country with the shooting percentage blowing away every other team. The revenge factor can sometimes be overrated, but not here. In the past five NCAA Tournaments, 1 seeds are 14-1 SU in the Sweet 16, covering the spread 12 times. Play on GONZAGAÂ AAA |
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03-27-19 | Coastal Carolina v. DePaul -7.5 | Top | 87-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DePaul Both of these teams scored an insane amount of points in their last game. Coastal Carolina dropped a shocking 109 points on West Virginia (in Morgantown!) in an upset as 10.5-point underdogs. DePaul scoring 97 at home vs. Longwood was less shocking when you consider it was the fourth time in the last six games they'd reached at least 90. There's a pair of 100+ point efforts in there as well for the Blue Demons, so they seem like the more consistent scoring bunch in this one and they're laying a much shorter number this time around compared to the line for the Longwood game. DePaul averages more than 80 points per game at home and should have its way with a Coastal Carolina defense that's giving up 76.2 PPG on the road. The oddsmakers probably couldn't make this total high enough, but they apparently "forgot about the spread" as it's too low considering DePaul's perfect 5-0 ATS mark when taking on an opponent that just scored 100 or more in its last game. Play on DEPAULÂ AAA |
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03-26-19 | Pistons v. Nuggets -7 | Top | 92-95 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DENVER Denver is off an embarrassing loss as Indiana as they went down 124-88 in one of their uglier performances all year. Such a lousy effort was ill-timed with them currently locked into a tight battle with Golden State for the #1 seed in the Western Conference. Right now, the Nuggets trail the Warriors by one-half game, so a win tonight would square things up with only nine games left in the regular season. Motivation should not be an issue here at home where the Nuggets are 30-6 SU, 23-13 ATS and winning by an average of almost 11 points per game. They've got revenge on the mind tonight as well due to having lost in Detroit (by 26!) early in February. This season has seen Denver go a perfect 9-0 against the number at home when seeking revenge for a loss where they were a road favorite. Even though they're a likely playoff team in the East, the Pistons have been quite shaky on the road where their record for the season is only 14-23. They've lost five of their last six games away from home, including some real wretched efforts, and the one win was against Phoenix. The Mile High City is one of the LAST places in the league they're likely to turn that around. Play on DENVERÂ AAA |
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03-26-19 | Clippers -2.5 v. Wolves | Top | 122-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the CLIPPERS The Clippers are hot right now. They've won 10 of their last 11 and five straight. Tonight, they'll hope to avoid what happened the last time they were on a five-game win streak and that's lose. That last loss occurred at home against Portland, but tonight they'll be facing much weaker competition in the form of Minnesota. Even though this is a road game, Los Angeles still should roll considering they have a lot to play for and the Timberwolves do not. Minny was officially eliminated from playoff contention last week, an appropriate result for such a disappointing season. They'd lost five in a row before winning at Memphis on Saturday. While the Timberwolves have a 23-11 record at home, we just don't see them getting the cash tonight. Not with trends favoring the road team, such as the Clippers 11-4-1 ATS mark their past 16 trips to Minneapolis. That's part of a larger 20-8-1 ATS run by the road team in the series and the favorite has cashed four of the last five times they've played. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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03-26-19 | Hawks +1 v. Pelicans | Top | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ATLANTA The Hawks are a perfect 8-0 against the spread this season when they're playing on the road and off a win at home. They just beat Philadelphia, 129-127, at home on Saturday. They pulled the upset (were +7) thanks to Trae Young's game winner in the final seconds. It was Atlanta's second straight win over a playoff team as they also beat Utah (at home) last week. Now they're on the road, but they get a break - some would say a big one - as New Orleans looks to have totally given up on the season. Looking back, the Anthony Davis trade request definitely sunk this team's season, which is too bad as they were a playoff contender before Davis made his feelings known. Now the Pelicans have lost eight of nine, one of the games coming against the Hawks on March 10 when they lost 126-118. Defense has been almost non-existent for New Orleans, who is giving up an incredible number of points lately. Those last nine games have seen them allow: 114, 127, 128, 130, 122, 138, 125, 119 and 113 points. It hasn't helped that in the last two games they've been held to 96 and 90 themselves. Atlanta will want this one more. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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03-26-19 | Charleston Southern v. Hampton -1.5 | Top | 67-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HAMPTON This is a second round matchup in the College Insider Tournament and we believe Hampton will enjoy a significant advantage due to having the home court. The Pirates 1st round CIT game was here at home and they beat St. Francis 81-72 as 8.5-point favorites. Their home record is now 11-3 for the season with them covering the spread in 8 of a possible 11 chances. They sure can score at home as they average 86.4 points per game. They also play much better defense, giving up only 70.8 points per game. Now a member of the Big South, this will be Hampton's second meeting of the year with Charleston Southern, whom they defeated in the regular season by a score of 94-82. That was a home game and the Pirates were favored by four points. We are shocked that they're favored by LESS for this postseason rematch. Charleston Southern barely got by Florida Atlantic in its first round CIT game, winning by only two despite shooting the ball much better. The Buccaneers don't get to the free throw line enough and that will cost them on the road against a high-scoring opponent. Play on HAMPTON AAA |
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03-25-19 | Nets v. Blazers -6 | Top | 144-148 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PORTLAND Portland scratched out a cover for us on Saturday, beating Detroit by five (were laying -4.5). It's a slightly larger spread tonight against Brooklyn, but that should be the case even though the Nets have covered three in a row. One of those games was a loss (at LAC) and then the Nets pulled out two close wins against Sacramento and the Lakers. One of those games (Sacramento), they trailed by 25 in the fourth quarter. Tonight will be their sixth straight road game, a trip which started 12 days ago in Oklahoma City. Portland has won six of seven with three straight wins coming at home. The Blazers are a very good bet at home considering they're 39-19-1 ATS the last 59 times playing here. They've already won in Brooklyn, by double digits, last month. They are 28-9 SU here this season, winning by an average margin of 8.2 points per game and most of those games come against Western Conference teams. Brooklyn being a likely playoff team is simply a byproduct of playing in the weak Eastern Conference. The Nets are 21-4 straight game in games where they are favored, but only 17-32 when they are the underdog. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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03-25-19 | Norfolk State +14.5 v. Colorado | Top | 60-76 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NORFOLK STATE Norfolk State pulled a pretty big upset its last time out, upsetting Alabama (one of the NIT's four 1-seeds) 80-79 as 16-point underdogs. They're again getting no respect from the oddsmakers here against Colorado with the winner moving on to face Texas (another OT winner in its last game) two days from now in a quarterfinal matchup. The Spartans were regular season champs in the MEAC with a 14-2 conference record, so they "know how to win" and we think they're getting too many points here. Colorado is a strong home team (14-2 SU record), but it was only a five-point win over Dayton here in Boulder in 1st round NIT action. The Buffaloes are enjoying a strong finish to the year, but Norfolk State has not lost a game by double digits since before Christmas. They are 8-5 ATS as an underdog this season. Too many points for Colorado to lay here as the only time they were a double digit favorite this month (-10 vs. Cal) was one of two games they failed to cover the spread. Play on NORFOLK STATE AAA |
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03-24-19 | Washington v. North Carolina -11.5 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NORTH CAROLINA Three ACC teams received #1 seeds in this Tournament and all three surprisingly struggled with their first round opponent. In the case of North Carolina, they were actually down 38-33 to Iona at halftime. But the Tar Heels exploded in the second half, scoring 55 points and won easily. Meanwhile, Washington may not have been able to play any better than it did against Utah State. They won 78-61, leading virtually the whole way. But we don't expect the Huskies to play that well again and UNC should certainly start better than they did Friday night. For what it's worth, the Tar Heels are 8-1 against the spread away from Chapel Hill, if coming off an Under. The Iona game did stay Under a very high total. Washington is not a good offensive team. Believe it or not, they have the lowest offensive efficiency of any team left in the tournament - with the exception of UC Irvine. Twice, Oregon held UW below 50 points late in the year, one of those in the Pac 12 Tournament Final. North Carolina is an even better defensive team that Oregon. Obviously, there's no comparison on offense as the Tar Heels average 86.1 points per game. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
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03-23-19 | Pistons v. Blazers -5 | Top | 112-117 | Push | 0 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PORTLAND Portland seems too short of a favorite here as they really are a much better team than Detroit. Based on the way they are priced though, you'd think the oddsmakers were of the opinion that these teams were relative equals. That is certainly not the case however as the Blazers play in the tougher conference, have a better overall record and vastly superior point differential. Even with an 8-3 March, the Pistons have still been outscored on the year and recent efforts on the road leave a lot to be desired. They did just win in Phoenix on Thursday, but before that lost in Cleveland and were also held to 75 and 74 points in key losses at Brooklyn and Miami. Detroit is only 14-21 SU on the road and lacks the offensive firepower to keep up with a Portland team that averages 117.1 points per game in its home arena. The Blazers have a home record of 27-9 SU and are coming off back to back eight point wins over Indiana and Dallas. They've won five of six overall with every win coming by at least eight points. The final score of Detroit's last game is a little misleading (they won by 20 points) as they were actually down at halftime. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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03-23-19 | Villanova v. Purdue -3.5 | Top | 61-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PURDUE It was not pretty, but defending champion Villanova was able to hold on to defeat St. Mary's 61-57 in their 1st round game Thursday. A little later on in the day, Purdue had a much easier time against Old Dominion, winning that game by double digits. Both games fell right near the number, but for us, the Boilermakers were a winner. We'll go with the Boilers yet again tonight as they are the superior side and 'Nova is still getting too much respect based on the fact they are the defending National Champs. But this year's team isn't nearly as good despite rolling to another Big East title. Purdue tied Michigan State for the best regular season record in the Big 10, which is something that seems to go unnnoticed. They just held ODU to 26.9% shooting and 49 points. While it obviously won't be as easy against Villanova, the Boilermakers are the much better defensive team here. In terms of defensive efficiency, there are only three teams left in the field of 32 with a worse rating than the Wildcats. Purdue enjoying a double digit advantage for almost the entire game against ODU is even more impressive when you consider they played without their starting point guard (he's a "full go" for tonight) and leading scorer Carsen Edwards shot just 7 of 23. We like Purdue a lot here. Play on PURDUE AAA |
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03-22-19 | UCF v. VCU +1 | Top | 73-58 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on VCU VCU is a team to keep an eye on in this Tournament due to the defense they play. They're also probably underseeded. The Rams were regular season champs in the A-10, but were bounced early in their conference tournament by an upset-minded Rhode Island team. We look for VCU to come out a make a statement here in their first round NCAA Tournament game. UCF also didn't last long in the American Tournament as they ran into the host school, Memphis, and got blown out 79-55. The Golden Knights actually enter the Tourney on a two-game losing streak as they got beat by Temple in the regular season finale. Both games they shot poorly. VCU holds its opponents to a 38.4 FG%. We know Marcus Evans hurt his knee in the loss to Rhode Island, but this is a deep team as 11 players regularly get on the court. VCU is 15-4 ATS its last 19 NCAA Tournament games. Play on VCUÂ AAA |
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03-22-19 | Iowa +4 v. Cincinnati | Top | 79-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on IOWA Cincinnati is fresh off winning the American Tournament, a run they capped by beating top seeded Houston. But even so, the Bearcats haven't been a great team to bet on recently. They're just 2-9 ATS the last 11 games. Now you can say the same for their 1st round opponent, Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 1-9 ATS their previous 10 games. They were blown out by Michigan in the Big 10 Tournament. But Iowa seems to be a good value taking points Friday. They are clearly the superior offensive team here, ranking top 15 in the country in efficiency. They average 78.3 points per game. What we saw against Michigan isn't indicative of the season as a whole. Cincy seems a little disappointed over their seeding (they should be!) and that could affect them mentally here. The Hawkeyes are 9-1 ATS their previous 10 neutral site games. Play on IOWA AAA |
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03-21-19 | Old Dominion v. Purdue -12.5 | Top | 48-61 | Win | 100 | 29 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PURDUE Underdogs will get a lot of love the next two days. Several of them will even pull outright upsets. But don't look for that to happen in this game. Purdue should be plenty angry following an early exit in the Big 10 Tournament and should take its frustrations out on an overmatched Old Dominion team. The Monarchs had a good season, winning 26 games, but they struggle to score. In five games played in March, ODU is averaging only 56.4 points per game. That won't cut it here. Not with Purdue averaging 76.2 PPG on the season. Old Dominion's defense can only take them so far against a superior opponent that tied for the Big 10 regular season title. Most don't realize that Purdue finished tied with Michigan State at 16-4 SU in conference play. The Boilermakers are 23-11 ATS their last 34 games. Old Dominion is 0-6 ATS their last six games following an ATS win (they covered in the Conference USA Champ Game) and 0-4 ATS its last four games vs. the Big 10. Play on PURDUE AAA |
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03-21-19 | Seton Hall +2.5 v. Wofford | Top | 68-84 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SETON HALL Wofford figures to be a pretty popular choice in this game, because everyone likes the "little guy" this time of year. But we like the other side here. Wofford is not the hunter, but rather than hunted in this situation with Seton Hall as the Terriers are both the higher seed and favored. But it's a big step up from the usual competition they face in the Southern Conference. Seton Hall has wins over the likes of Maryland and Kentucky in the non-conference this year. They also beat Villanova and Marquette (twice) late in the regular season, then came within an eyelash of beating Nova again in the Big East Championship Game (lost by 2). All of those teams are seeded higher than Wofford is. Wofford has won 20 in a row, but has also never won a NCAA Tournament game. Seton Hall has covered the spread in five straight games with the only SU loss coming by two points. So they're hot too. The defense that Seton Hall plays is not something Wofford saw often in the SoCon. Also, the Pirates are a perfect 7-0 ATS in neutral site games this season (6-1 straight up). Play on SETON HALL AAA |
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03-21-19 | Nuggets -8.5 v. Wizards | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVER Washington was going to be in a tough spot here, regardless of last night's outcome. But losing 126-120 in overtime at Chicago was probably Wednesday's least ideal outcome. After Bradley Beal tied the game in the closing seconds of regulation, the Wizards went 0 for 6 from the field in OT. It was their third loss in four games and this one really stung considering how bad the Bulls are and that they were without two of their top players. Now Washington has to deal with Denver, one of the top teams in the league. Sure this one is at home, but the Wizards are just 2-5 ATS their last seven games vs. teams with winning records. The Nuggets come in having won four in a row. They just took care of the Celtics, in Boston, and now trail Golden State by just one-half game for first place in the Western Conference. They've also been off for the last two days. This is probably one of the worst possible opponents for the Nuggets tonight, home or not. Play on DENVER AAA |
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03-21-19 | Yale +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on YALE Yale, champions of the Ivy League, are a solid play here against an LSU team that has lost has its head coach. Will Wade got himself caught up in the NCAA scandal and the Tigers have to go to the Tournament without him. This is a team that overachieved this year. How much credit goes to Wade can be up for debate, but certainly he deserves a large portion. Without Wade, it was an earlier than expected exit for LSU in the SEC Tournament as they got upset by Florida. The Tigers weren't a particularly great defensive team anyway and they give up a lot of offensive rebounds. Yale has scored at least 90 point in six different games this season, including Sunday's Ivy League Final vs. Harvard. I had the Bulldogs in that game and came away quite impressed as six players scored in double figures. Yale is 3-0 straight up and against the spread at neutral sites this year, winning by an average of 11.1 points per game. They can stick with LSU here. Play on YALE AAA |
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03-20-19 | Wizards -2 v. Bulls | Top | 120-126 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON The Wizards are still technically alive in the Eastern Conference playoff race, but on life support. To remain viable, they must win tonight in Chicago. Fortunately, the task should not be that difficult against a Bulls team that is just 8-27 at home and getting consistently hammered. The Bulls did win their last time out, beating Phoenix 116-101 on the road. But before that it was five straight losses, three of them by 16 or more points. The last time these teams played was here in the Windy City and Washington won 134-125 with a similar pointspread. It's a but suspicious as to why the oddsmakers wouldn't have adjusted. At least a little bit. Since that time, the Wizards are just 1-6 on the road and they just lost 116-95 at home to Utah. But they'd also gone 7-1 ATS in the eight games prior to getting blown out by the Jazz. This is a game the Wizards should win with ease. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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03-20-19 | Pelicans v. Magic -6.5 | Top | 96-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ORLANDO Orlando needs to take advantage here of a New Orleans team that has basically thrown in the towel on the 2018-19 season. Anthony Davis has been relegated to limited minutes in the wake of his highly publicized trade demand and the team's fortunes essentially sunk right after those demands were made. The Pelicans are officially eliminated from playoff contention in the Western Conference as they've fallen to 11 games below .500. Defense is non-existent here with them allowing 116.1 points per game, which is tied for the most in the West. They've allowed 122 or more points in six straight games. Orlando has held its last two opponents under 100 and its last four all to 105 or less. This will be the Magic's third straight game at home vs. a non-playoff team. They've won the previous two by double digits. The Magic are 7-2 ATS their last nine home games. Play on ORLANDO AAAÂ |
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03-20-19 | Harvard +5.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HARVARDÂ Harvard came up short in the Ivy League Championship Game, falling to rival Yale. But I see them having an easier time here in the NIT vs. Georgetown, who is just 5-16 ATS its last 21 times hosting a non-conference opponent. The Hoyas' home court and name recognition are what has them favored here, but really they shouldn't be laying more than a couple points to a Harvard side that is every bit their equal. G'town was one and done in the Big East Tournament, losing to Seton Hall 73-57. They also got smoked late in the regular season by DePaul, 101-69. The Hoyas can score (79.9 PPG), but they also give up too many points (78.3 PPG). Harvard should make enough shots to at least stay within the number here and they'd actually won outright the previous four times as a dog before the loss to Yale Sunday (where they led at halftime). Play on HARVARD AAA |
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03-19-19 | Nets v. Kings -4 | Top | 123-121 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SACRAMENTO One of these teams (Brooklyn) will likely make the playoffs while the other (Sacramento) will not. But a pretty strong case can be made that the non-playoff team is better and the respective designations are simply a byproduct of the two uneven conferences. Sacramento, despite having little shot at making the playoffs, is in a good spot here. They've covered three straight, including a 129-102 win over the Bulls on Sunday. Shockingly, the Kings have been an outstanding bet when favored this season, going 15-4 ATS (17-2 SU). They are favored here to beat a Brooklyn team that seems to have hit a wall. A seven-game road trip has opened with three straight losses as the Nets have fallen to 11-16 SU vs. the Western Conference. Like Sacramento, the Nets typically take care of business when they're favored. They've been favored 24 times and won 20 of those games. But as an underdog, they're just 16-32 SU. With it being a short number, we'll lay it! Play on SACRAMENTO AAA |
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03-18-19 | Jazz -4 v. Wizards | Top | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UTAH Utah comes to Washington D.C. in search of a win and should get it at the expense of the struggling Wizards. The Jazz have won and covered each of their last three games. While all three games were against lesser opponents, they did win by double digits every time. All three wins were by at least 16 points, including a wire to wire beatdown of Brooklyn on Saturday. Washington has actually gone 7-1 ATS its last eight games and just put up 135 points in a surprising performance against Memphis two days ago. But it's been a long time since they were able to beat the Jazz. The last five meetings have all gone Utah's way and this one will too, by a rather comfortable margin, considering how poor the Wizards are defensively. Utah has covered 7 of its last 9 games vs. teams with losing records. Play on UTAH AAA |
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03-17-19 | Cincinnati v. Houston -4.5 | Top | 69-57 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON Houston blew the cover late on Saturday, letting a double digit lead slip away against Memphis. They had kept the Tigers in check the entire game, never allowing them to get above 25% from the field! But the Cougars had their own scoreless stretch, for about four minutes, as they missed 10 straight shots and that let Memphis pull within three. As upset as we are about Houston not covering yesterday (we had them), it was still an impressive win when you consider the defensive performance and that it was a true road game (tournament is being played in Memphis). Memphis had lost only twice at home all season. Today they face a Cincinnati team that also won by three Saturday. The Bearcats beat Wichita State, coming back from a halftime deficit. Houston beat Cincy twice in the regular season, winning by 7 and 16. They are the better team here and unlike yesterday won't have to deal with a hostile crowd and it's a shorter number. The Bearcats have covered the spread just one time in their last 10 games. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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