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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-02-16 | Colorado +8 v. Washington | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Colorado. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS trends and common sense: Washington is 11-1 and with a victory tonight, will not only claim the Pac 12 title, but also punch its ticket to the playoff championship round. Colorado beat Utah at home last week and has been under valued all year in our opinion. The Buffs have a top 35 offense and a top 10 defense. The Huskies are 3rd in the nation in scoring and also have a top 10 defense. Will Washington get caught “looking ahead” to what might be? The pressure is on the Huskies and we think the spotlight is going to be a detractor tonight. Conversely, the Buffs clearly have nothing to lose. The bottom line: Note that Colorado is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a win against a conference rival and 4-2 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Washington is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 off a win against a conference rival. Grab the points, play on COLORADO. AAA Sports |
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12-02-16 | Pistons v. Hawks -3.5 | 121-85 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Atlanta Hawks. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Detroit is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 on the road and only 6-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest, while Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three or more consecutive SU losses, 4-2 ATS in its last six after allowing 105 points or more and already a perfect 4-0 ATS against the Central Division (also 6-2 ATS in front of the home town crowd). The bottom line: Desperation breeds motivation. Play on ATLANTA. AAA Sports |
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12-02-16 | Duquesne +13.5 v. Pittsburgh | 64-55 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Duquesne. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Duquesne is 14-8 ATS in its last 22 after allowing 80 points or more and 2-1 ATS in its last three when playing on a neutral court, while Pittsburgh is just 2-12 ATS in its last 14 after allowing 60 points or less, just 13-28 ATS in its last 41 when playing the role of favorite, only 1-8 ATS in its last nine against teams with losing records and just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 neutral court affairs. The bottom line: We think Pittsburgh comes in complacent and the DUKES do more than enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. AAA Sports |
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12-01-16 | Cowboys v. Vikings +3.5 | Top | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 76 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Minnesota Vikings. REASONING: Dallas has been unbelievably impressive obviously, as the combination of a rookie phenom QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliot have the Cowboys at 10-1. Minnesota’s run game has been non-existent this season and QB Sam Bradford has been just adequate. The Vikes rank dead last in almost every offensive category. The defense and special teams have been exceptional though and are the main reason that Minnesota is 6-5 and still very much in playoff contention. Desperation breeds motivation and success often leads to complacency. So far everything has gone the Cowboys’ way this season, but we think the desperate home side will give them everything they can handle today. The Vikes have 28 sacks, which rank seventh in the NFL, and the secondary has 12 INT’s, ranked third. Bradford continues to be extremely effecient, as he’s completed 71.3 percent of his passes, with 12 TD’s to just three picks. Also note that Bradford catches a bit of a break today, as the Dallas pass rush is tied for 25th in the league in sacks. The Cowboys are just 1-3 ATS in their last four “Thursday night” games (including 0-1 this season), while the Vikings are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 at home, including 4-1 ATS this season and 11-6 ATS in their last 17 against teams with winning records. Bradford has been given the green light to go deep and he’s facing the perfect defense to do it against. Head coach Mike Zimmer is a defensive specialist and we think the Vikes can put significant pressure on Prescott tonight. Grab the points, play on the VIKINGS. AAA Sports |
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12-01-16 | Columbia v. Seton Hall -16 | Top | 71-95 | Win | 100 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Seton Hall. REASONING: Seton Hall is 4-2 after falling 66-52 to Stanford on Sunday in the fifth-place game of the AdvoCare Invitational in Florida. Guard Khadeen Carrington had 20 points for the fourth time already this year. A game at home against an Ivy League opponent is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked for the Pirates though, as SHU has for the most part dominated the conference, going 38-20 all time with a 12.7 average margin of victory. Also note that Seton Hall is riding a 17-game home win streak over non-conference opponents with an average scoring marging of +17.8. The Lions on the other hand enter off a crushing 88-86 loss to Hofstra and we think they’re primed for a letdown in this spot. Note that Columbia is 0-2 ATS as an underdog this year and 0-2 ATS against teams with winning records, while Seton Hall is 17-10 ATS in its last 27 at home. Play on the PIRATES. AAA Sports |
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11-30-16 | Texas Southern v. Arizona -16 | Top | 63-85 | Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona. REASONING: Arizona played four games in seven days last week in Las Vegas, but returns home to the McKale Center with four days of rest. The Wildcats defeated Santa Clara 69-61 on Thanksgiving Day, before then falling 69-65 to Butler the next day in a game that featured 11 lead changes and nine scoring ties. But if history is any precedence, then the Wildcats have to be loving their chances today as they’ve won 36 straight non-conference games in front of the home town crowd. Also note that Arizona has won 47 of its last 60 games following at least four days of rest. The last time these teams played was in the first round of the 2015 NCAA Tournament in the Moda Center in Portland and the Wildcats would pull away for the 93-72 win. All five UA starters scored at least ten points in the win. Also note that Arizona is 13-1 in home games immediately following a loss away from Tuscon. We think that Texas Southern should be a much bigger underdog in this one as it simply doesn’t matchup well at all, note that it’s just 2-4 ATS in its last six after playing three consecutive road games. And note that AU is 19-10 ATS in its last 29 home games as a favorite of 12.5 points or more. Play on ARIZONA. AAA Sports |
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11-28-16 | Packers +4 v. Eagles | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Green Bay Packers. REASONING: The Packers have lost four straight and will be risking life and limb today in trying to secure a victory. The Eagles come in off a 26-15 road loss to Seattle and we think they’re primed for another letdown tonight. The panic button has been pressed in Green Bay, but their is a silver lining in that the team still sits just two games shy of a tie atop the NFC North standings. Green Bay’s defense ranks in the lower third in passing yards allowed, but QB Aaron Rodgers continues to find ways to get the job done, he’s ranked eighth in the league in passing. In the Packers’ 42-24 loss to the Redskins, Rodgers had 351 yards passing and three TD’s. Philadelphis is now in last place in the NFC East, and the playoffs are almost assuredly out of the question at this point. The defense has been the Eagles strong point, conceding an average of just 18.7 PPG thus far. But clearly that unit is going to be tested by a motivated Rodgers this evening. Rookie QB Carson Wentz has looked pretty ordinary of late and I think he’ll have troubles against this Packers secondary which will clearly be playing with a chip on its shoulder after the recent stretch of poor play. Note that Green Bay is 5-3 ATS in its last eight against the NFC East, while Philadelphia is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven when playing the role of favorite. Grab as many points as you can, play on GREEN BAY. AAA Sports |
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11-27-16 | Jaguars +7 v. Bills | 21-28 | Push | 0 | 144 h 2 m | Show | |
We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics: As note that Jacksonville is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog of 7.5 to ten points and interestingly, 4-2 ATS in its last six against the AFC East, while Buffalo is just 8-11 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite. The bottom line: With a trip across the country against suddenly surging Oakland next week, we think the home side has a small misstep today and gets caught “looking ahead.” While we won’t be so bold to call for the outright upset, we do definitely expect the hungry visitors to take this one down to the wire. Play on the JAGUARS. AAA Sports |
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11-27-16 | Giants v. Browns +7 | 27-13 | Loss | -120 | 144 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Browns. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics: As note that New York is just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 on the road (including only 1-2 ATS this season), as well as just 4-6 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Cleveland is 3-1 ATS in its last four following a divisional contest. The bottom line: With a game at Pittsburgh next weekend, we believe the visitors have a letdown against the lowly Browns. Cleveland has nothing to play for, but this one sets up perfectly as a possible upset spot. Grab as many points as you can, play on the BROWNS. AAA Sports |
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11-26-16 | Michigan v. Ohio State -7 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -100 | 143 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Ohio State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics: As note that Michigan is 5-8 ATS in its last 13 on the road (including just 1-2 ATS this year). It’s also a poor 2-4 ATS in its last six as an underdog and just 3-5 ATS in its last eight against conference opponents. Note that it’s also only 2-4 ATS in its last six off a win against a conference rival. And note that Ohio State has excelled in this spot for bettors, going 4-2 ATS at home this year is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 when playing the role of favorite. The bottom line: Obviously a huge rivalry game, but we simply can’t see the home side taking a mis-step at this point. We look for OHIO STATE to do just enough to come away with the cover at the end of the afternoon. AAA Sports |
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11-26-16 | Georgia Tech +4.5 v. Georgia | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Georgia Tech. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics: As note that Georgia Tech is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games (including already 2-0 ATS this year) and 6-3 ATS in its last nine off a win against a conference rival, while Georgia is just 2-3 ATS at home this season and only 1-2 ATS in non-conference contests this season. The bottom line: While we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we’re going to grab the points as we expect GEORGIA TECH’s dynamic offense to give the Bulldogs everything they can hanld this afternoon. AAA Sports |
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11-25-16 | Pelicans v. Blazers -4 | Top | 104-119 | Win | 100 | 29 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Portland Trailblazers. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics: As note that New Orleans is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten after three or more consecutive SU victories and only 11-13 ATS in its last 24 as a road dog of 3.5 to six points, while Portland is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 as a home fav of 3.5 to six points. The bottom line: This is a “revenge” game for the struggling Blazers. The Pelicans have turned things around of late, but we think this one sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors today. Combined with what should be a superhuman effort from the home side tonight as it looks to get off the schneid and back to its winning ways, all signs do indeed point to PORTLAND as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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11-25-16 | Washington -5.5 v. Washington State | Top | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 121 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Washington. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics: As note that Washington is 6-3 ATS in its last nine as a road favorite, while Washington State is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a home dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. The bottom line: The Cougars are coming off their first conference loss of the season to Colorado and are primed for a letdown. The Huskies are hoping to play for the national title and we’re expecting their No. 1 Pac 12 offense and defense to do just enough today to secure the ATS victory in the tough environment. Play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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11-24-16 | LSU v. Texas A&M +4 | Top | 54-39 | Loss | -105 | 102 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Texas A&M. REASONING: LSU has little to play for as it closes out the season sitting at 6-4, most recently coming off a disappointing 16-10 home loss to Florida this past Saturday. Texas A&M is 8-3 SU and it’s gunning for a better bowl position at this point. The Aggies enter off a 23-10 win over UTSA last week. LSU RB Leonard Fournette played injured last week and it showed as he’d finish with just 40 yards on 12 carries. Derrius Guice had 83 yards on 19 carries to go along with a TD (Guice was stuffed for the winning attempt from one yard out though). The Tigers get the job done on the ground offensively as the passing attack has been a major issue for years, this season it’s averaged just 174 yards per game, ranked 109th in the country. The Aggies lost the services of QB Trevor Knight and backup Jake Hubenak has been decent in relief, posting 222 yards against Mississippit State, 213 yards against Ole Miss and 248 yards against UTSA last weekend. Last Saturday he was 19 of 32 with one TD and no INT’s. The Aggies run game has been the strength of the team though, averaging 220.2 YPG. Note that LSU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten road games and only 3-7 ATS in its last ten games played in the month of November, while Texas A&M is 2-1 ATS as an underdog this season. We like Hubenak here and think the home side will jump on this rattled Tigers team. While we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on TEXAS A&M. AAA Sports |
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11-21-16 | Mavs +16 v. Spurs | Top | 91-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Mavericks. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics: As note that Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite between 14.5 and 18 points, while San Antonio is just 13-15 ATS in its last 28 when playing with two days rest and only 1-2 ATS this season against teams with losing records. The bottom line: Desperation leads to motivation. While we’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, we do definitely think that the desperate visitors can keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play on DALLAS. AAA Sports |
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11-21-16 | Rockets v. Pistons | 99-96 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a 10* play on the Detroit Pistons. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics: As note that Houston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after three or more consecutive ATS victories, while Detroit is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 off an upset loss as a favorite. The bottom line: Look for the desperate home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on DETROIT. AAA Sports |
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11-19-16 | Warriors v. Bucks +10 | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the Milwaukee Bucks. REASONING: Obviously the Golden State Warriors are an awesome team and barring a major upset, they’ll be back in the finals as the Western Conference representative. Golden State comes to Milwaukee on a five-game win streak, including a 20-point victory in Boston just last night. The Bucks come into this one on the other end of the spectrum, having lost two in a row and four of their last five. Milwaukee will be especially motivated after scoring just 25 second-half points against Miami in its latest setback. A couple of players that continues to shine for the Bucks are Giannis Antetkounmpo and Jabari Parker. Antetokounmpo is averaging career highs in points (21.1), boards (8.7), assists (5.4), blocks (2.2) and steals (1.7) per game, while Parker is averaging 20.8 points in eight games this month. Note that the Warriors are just 33-37 ATS in their last 70 non-conference games, while Milwaukee is already 4-2 ATS this year vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest. The Bucks upset the Warriors outright last year, but we’re going to recommend grabbing the points. Play on MILWAUKEE. AAA Sports |
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11-19-16 | Maryland +13.5 v. Nebraska | 7-28 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Maryland. REASONING: We’re primarily a “situationally based” handicapping service and we think this one sets up nicely for the underdog Terrapins. Maryland desperately needs one more victory to become bowl eligible and we think it’s going to take this one down to the wire. No. 19 Nebraska snapped a two-game slide with a 24-17 win over Minnesota at home last week, while the Terps were annihilated 62-3 at home by Ohio State. Note though, OSU hammered the Huskers by the idential score just a couple of weeks back. Maryland QB Perry Hills was injured early in the game to the Buckeyes and backup Caleb Rowe would finish just 7 of 13 for 93 yards and one INT. He should do a lot better though with more time to prepare and the Huskers’ defense is definitely NOT the same as Ohio State’s. Nebraska QB Tommy Armstrong was just 4 of 15 for 74 yards and one INT before he was also knocked out of the game by the aggressive Buckeyes. Last week Armstrong looked shaky against Minnesota, throwing for 217 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Nebaska also committed eight penalties for 81 yards and posted just 157 rushing yards. Note that Maryland is 6-3 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Nebraska is only 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. We think that the visitors give the home side a scare. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-18-16 | Memphis v. Cincinnati +7.5 | Top | 34-7 | Loss | -115 | 122 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on Cincinnati. REASONING: Memphis is bowl eligible, while Cincinnati desperately needs two more wins to join the party. While an outright win is obviously not out of the question, we’re going to recommend grabbing the points as we think the home side’s overall desperation will take this one down to the wire. The Bearcats come in on a three-game losing streak. Memphis though is backing its way into the postseason as it’s dropped three of its last four, most recently a 49-42 setback to USF last weekend. Tigers’ QB Riley Ferguson was 29 of 46 for 331 yards, three TD’s and one pick last week. Cincinnati most recently fell 24-3 to Central Florida and is in danger of a missing a bowl game for the first time in six years. Note though that Memphis is just 1-3 ATS on the road this year and only 3-4 ATS when playing the role of favorite (also a horrible 1-5 ATS against the conference), while Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive SU losses. Desperation breeds motivation, play on the BEARCATS. AAA Sports |
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11-18-16 | Penguins v. Islanders +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the New York Islanders. REASONING: For the most part the Penguins (10-4-2-0) have done very well to open the 2016/17 campaign. The Islanders enter this one on the other end of the spectrum though, sitting at 5-8-1. The Isles are the more desperate team and we’re expecting the home side to come out fired up tonight. Pittsburgh is ripe for a letdown here after its 7-1 road loss in the nation’s capital. The Isles suffered another tough setback in a 4-0 home loss to Tampa Bay on the same night. Pittsburgh starting goaltender Matt Murray was knocked out of that one, meaning that Marc-Andre Fleury gets the call in net for the visitors. Note that he’s a sub-par 1-3 with a ballooned 4.79 GAA on the road this year. Isles’ netminder Jaroslav Halak has struggled for the most part this season, but note that he owns a respectable 2.65 GAA at home (and also note that he’s 7-5 with a 2.17 GAA lifetime against the Pens). We think it’s important to note that NY is 9-3 (+6.1 units) in its last 12 after three or more consecutive losses. We’re laying the price and grabbing the extra goal-and-a-half of insurance. Play on the ISLANDERS on the PUCK-LINE. AAA Sports |
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11-17-16 | Louisville v. Houston +14 | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 57 h 54 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on Houston. REASONING: We think the Cougars can ride the wave of emotion in front of the home town crowd and keep this one a lot closer than what the bookmakers are leading us to believe. Louisville is 9-1 SU and 5-4 ATS, while Houston is 8-2 SU and 4-6 ATS. When these teams played last year, the Cougars came out on top 34-31. Louisville has suddenly been thrust back into the converastion as far as earning a spot in the College Football playoffs after winning last week, with a few others ahead of them losing. Last week though Louisville struggled, it was down 12-3 at half time and 12-10 at the start of the fourth quarter, before then going on to outscore the Demon Deacons 34-0 in the final frame. QB Lamar Jackson was just 14 of 26 for 145 yards and a TD, but he did also rush for 153 yards. Louisville is still ranked 1st in the nation in scoring with an average of 49.6 PPG, while the defense is ranked 16th in points allowed at 20.3 PPG. The Cougars clearly won’t be rolling over today though, they’re looking to play spoiler. Houston has won all five games at home this year by an average of 17.7 PPG and we think it can go toe-to-toe with the Cardinals high-octane unit. Note that Houston ranks 22nd in scoring at 27.6 PPG, while the defense is ranked 25th in points allowed, giving up just 21.3 PPG. And finally note that Louisville is just 1-3 ATS this year when playing with six or less days rest, while Houston is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven when playing the role of underdog. Grab as many points as you can, play on the COUGARS. AAA Sports |
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11-17-16 | Bucks v. Heat -3.5 | 73-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Miami Heat. REASONING: Miami is in the midst of its first six-game losing streak since 2008 and will clearly be playing with desperation tonight as it looks to get off the schneid. The Heat are struggling and are injured, but face the perfect opponent to get untracked against as the Bucks come to town tired after last night’s deflating 107-100 loss at home to Atlanta. Miami will be without the services of guard Goran Dragic and of big man Justise Winslow. Milwaukee has struggled with consistency in these spots though, already 0-2 ATS this year when playing on back-to-back days. And note that Miami is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 after three or more consecutive SU losses, including 2-1 ATS this season. A great situational pick, play on the HEAT. AAA Sports |
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11-17-16 | Lightning v. Sabres +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -200 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Buffalo Sabres on the PUCK-LINE. REASONING: The Lighting suffered a major setback with star forward Steven Stamkos tearing his right knee in Tuesday’s 4-3 win over the Red Wings. Stamkos was third in the NHL with 20 points. Replacing a player of this calibre is impossible do and while Tampa Bay is a very deep and experienced team, we think it’s going to take some time to develop chemistry and adjust to the major change in the offense. From a scheduling stand point, this is also a tough spot for Tampa Bay as its the third game in a five-game road trip. The Lightning also get caught looking ahead to their game in Columbus on Friday. Buffalo is going to be desperate here as it looks to break a five-game slide, most recently a 4-1 setback to St. Louis on Tuesday. We’re going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. Play on the SABRES on the PUCK-LINE. AAA Sports |
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11-17-16 | Long Beach State +21 v. Louisville | Top | 56-88 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on Long Beach State. REASONING: LBSU comes in battle tested already as it faces its second straight ranked opponent in the third game of the team’s opening road trip in No. 12 Louisville. Keep your eyes on Gabe Levin, who has played well for LBSU to open the season, leading the way in both scoring and rebounding through three games. LBSU received 19 of 23 first-place votes as the favorite to win the Big West Conference in 2016/17 as picked by the media panel in the Preseason. LBSU has four starters returning from last year and a ton of talent which we think can catch the Cardinals a bit off guard. Louisville gets ready to play its third straight home game, most recently clobbering William & Mary 91-58. Through the first two games, four players have averaged double figures. Note though that LBSU is 3-1 ATS in its last four after back-to-back SU/ATS losses, while Louisville is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after back-to-back SU/ATS victories. Grab as many points as you can, play on LONG BEACH STATE. AAA Sports |
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11-16-16 | Rockets v. Thunder -1 | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma City Thunder. REASONING: Desperation breeds motivation. After losing four straight, we’re expecting the hungry Thunder to find a way to get the job done tonight. Most recently OKC fell to Detroit on the second game of a back-to-back. Houston comes in off an easy 115-88 win over the 76ers, but with a game at home against Portland tomorrow night, we think the visitors get caught looking ahead to that one. It’s all hands on deck for OKC tonight as it looks to break the slide and with games at home against Brooklyn and Indiana over the weekend, there won’t be any “looking ahead” for the Thunder. Also note that Houston is just 10-12 ATS in its last 22 as a road dog of three points or less, while OKC is 3-2 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest and already 2-0 ATS following a loss by ten points or more. Play on the THUNDER. AAA Sports |
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11-16-16 | Ball State +18 v. Toledo | 19-37 | Push | 0 | 74 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on Ball State. REASONING: For us at this point of the season it’s all about picking and choosing good “situations” and “spots.” Last night we successfully played on Central Michigan at home, which needed one more win to become bowl eligible. The Chips did just enough to come away with the win over Ohio. And while we’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset in this one, this one sets up similarily in a lot of respects as the Cardinals need two more wins to become bowl eligible. Toledo controls its own destiny and is looking to secure a win today and then face off against Western Michigan for the division title next weekend. But just like Ohio last night, we think the Rockets will in fact get caught looking ahead to their big matchup next Saturday. And that’s going to leave the back door open just wide enough for the hungry Cardinals to sneak through. From a situational stand point, they simply don’t get much stronger than this, but also note that Ball State is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog of 14.5 to 21 points and 4-1 ATS this season on the road, while Toledo is just 1-2 ATS this year as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range and only 1-2 ATS off a win against a conference rival. Grab as many points as you can, play on BALL STATE. AAA Sports |
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11-15-16 | Bulls v. Blazers -3 | Top | 113-88 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Portland Trailblazers. REASONING: The Bulls haven’t played since Saturday’s 116-105 win over the Wizards, while Portland edged Denver 112-105 on Sunday night. From a scheduling stand point, this one sets up perfectly for the Blazers, as this is the start of a tough Western Conference road swing for the Bulls, with a game at Utah on Thursday night, before then visiting the Clippers, Lakers and Nuggets over the next week and a half. We think Chicago gets caught looking ahead and comes out a bit flat in this one. Portland on other hand plays the final game of a short three-game home stand before embarking on a long Eastern Conference road swing, putting added emphasis onto this contest. Note that Chicago is 7-9 ATS in its last 16 as a road dog of 3 points or less and just 18-20 ATS in its last 38 after a win by ten points or more, while Portland is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home fav of 3 point or less. Lay the points, play on the BLAZERS. AAA Sports |
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11-15-16 | Ohio v. Central Michigan -1 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Central Michigan. REASONING: Ohio is heading bowling this year, but still has its sights set on taking the MAC East Division and overall conference crown. The Bobcats most recently edged Buffalo 34-10 back on November 3rd. CMU on the other hand is just 5-5 and needs one more win to become bowl eligible. The Chips will be in a foul mood after dropping three straight, most recently a 37-17 loss to Miami Ohio on November 4th. If we look a little deeper into Ohio’s last win, we find that it was definitely a little “lucky” as it was outgained 413-377 and lost the first down battle 19-18. It also dropped the time of possession battle 31:36 to 28:24. Note that Ohio stands 63rd in the nation in scoring offense at 29.3 PPG. The defense is ranked 35th in allowing 23 points. The Chips are a pass first team, they actually rank 27th in the country with an average of 279.3 YPG. Overall CMU is ranked 64th in scoring offense at 29 PPG. The defense isn’t horrible either, allowing 29.3 PPG, ranked 72nd overall. Note that Ohio is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 off a win against a conference rival, while CMU is 10-7 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog and 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a loss against a conference rival. We think that despertion leads to motivation for the home side, play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. AAA Sports |
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11-14-16 | Grizzlies +6 v. Jazz | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Memphis Grizzlies. REASONING: Desperation breeds motivation and success often leads to complaceny. It’ll be all hands on deck for Memphis as it looks to break out of a sluggish stretch, while Utah is poised for a big letdown after a recent turnaround in play. The Jazz return home for their first game after a successul eastern road swing with a 4-1 mark, capped off with a very satisfying 102-91 win over the Heat on Saturday. Memphis is averaging just 97 PPG, ranked last in the Western Conference. Most recently Memphis comes in off a 106-96 setback to the Bucks on Saturday. Note though that Memphis is 31-19 ATS in its last 40 after allowing 104 points or more, including 2-1 ATS this season, while Utah is just 2-3 ATS in its last five following a win by ten points or more. Grab the points, play on the GRIZZLIES. AAA Sports |
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11-14-16 | Wyoming v. Montana -4.5 | 73-72 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 9 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER PLAY on Montana. REASONING: Montana comes in off a hard-fought 75-61 road loss to USC, but now looks to bounce back big in front of the home town crowd. Ahmaad Rorie had to watch last season from the sidelines, sitting out a redshirt year after transferring to Montana from Oregon, but he would lead the way for the Grizzlies in this one with 21 points, 15 of which came in the first half. Wyoming comes in off an easy 88-49 home win over Western State, but now faces its first true test of the season. We think the book is still out on the Cowboys, while the Grizzlies have already proven they can play with the best in the nation. And note that Wyoming is just 10-14 ATS in its last 14 on the road, while Montana is 4-2 ATS its last six at home. A great situational play, lay the points on the GRIZZLIES. AAA Sports |
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11-13-16 | Winnipeg v. BC -4.5 | Top | 31-32 | Loss | -112 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the BC Lions. REASONING: No need to overthink this one in our opinion. BC lost two late regular season meetings with the Blue Bombers, so the “double revenge factor” is definitely very real today. We think that Lions dynamic young QB Jon Jennings is in for a big day. BC dominates in all three phases of the game and will have the added benefit from playing in front of the home town crowd. The Bombers have been on a charge and are led by fomer Lion Andrew Harris, which adds extra incentive for BC in this one as well. This is a great “situational” play, but also note that the Blue Bombers are in fact just just 1-2 ATS in their last three when playing with eight days rest, while BC is 6-3 ATS at home this year and 8-3 ATS when playing the role of favorite. Lay the points, play on the LIONS. AAA Sports |
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11-12-16 | Spurs v. Rockets +2 | Top | 106-100 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Houston Rockets. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics and common sense: As note that San Antonio has struggled in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as a road fav of three points or less, while Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a home dog of three points or less (it’s also 19-9 ATS in its last 28 when playing with two days of rest). The bottom line: Houston shocked the Spurs with an outright victory on their own floor just last week, but we think the visitors come in tired this evening after their win at home over the Pistons just last night. Look for HOUSTON to push the pace and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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11-12-16 | Clippers v. Wolves +5 | Top | 119-105 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Timberwolves. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics and common sense: As note that LA is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after three or more consecutive SU wins, while Minnesota is already 2-1 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more. The bottom line: LA comes to town off a hard-fought 110-108 win in Oklahoma City just last night. The Clippers have been on an absolute tear, they’re 8-1 overall (7-2 ATS), but we think they’re finally set up for a letdown tonight against this energized Wolves team. Minnesota has had two nights off since handling the Magic 123-107, and we’re expecting it to carry that momentum and confidence over into this one. While the outright win isn’t out of the question obviously, we’re going to recommend grabbing the points. Play on MINNESOTA. AAA Sports |
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11-12-16 | Pittsburgh +21 v. Clemson | 43-42 | Win | 100 | 70 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Pittsburgh. REASONING: Pittsburgh needs just one more win to become bowl eligible and while we aren’t going to call for an outright upset today, we do think that the Panthers can bounce back after last week’s 51-29 loss to Miami and catch a complacent 9-0 Clemson team, which is coming off a 54-0 victory over Syracuse last week, a little flat footed. Pittsburgh has lost two straight after a three game win streak. The Panthers have given up at least 31 points in four straight games. QB Nathan Peterman has 14 TD’s to just four INT’s and leads an offense ranked 27th in the nation in scoring with an average of 37 PPG. Clemson got a scare in last week’s blowout win as QB DeShaun Watson left the game early with a shoulder injury. It’s unclear if he’ll play today, but if he does, he wont be at 100%. The offense averages 38.6 PPG, while the defense ranks 8th in points allowed. The bottom line: Note that Pittsburgh is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog and 4-2 ATS in its last six following two or more consecutive SU losses, while Clemson is just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 off a win against a conference rival. Play on PITTSBURGH. AAA Sports |
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11-12-16 | Ohio State v. Maryland +29 | 62-3 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Maryland. REASONING: Maryland needs just one more win to become bowl eligible. In its way this week stands the 8-1 Ohio State Buckeyes. An outright win is out of the question likely, but we think the home side can hang around long enough and come away with a comfortable cover once it’s all said and done. Ohio State comes in off a satisfying 62-3 thumping of then No. 10 Nebraska. On October 22nd the Buckeyes lost to Penn State 24-21, and then had to hold on for a 24-20 victory at home over Northwestern, before last week’s blowout. Maryland looks to bounce back and put up a much better fight this weekend after getting slaughtered 59-3 at Michigan. When these teams played last year, OSU came away with the 49-28 victory. The Buckeyes rank fourth in the country in defense and 16th on offense. Maryland was in a huge early hole in the setback to the Wolverines and may be down to backup QB Caleb Rowe this weekend (Rowe was 12 of 23 for 203 yards last week after starter Perry Hills went down with injury. Hills is a game time decision), but note that the Terps are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after two or more consecutive SU losses and 9-5 ATS in their last 14 off a loss against a conference rival, while OSU is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after two or more consecutive SU wins and only 1-3 ATS off a win against a conference rival. Grab as many points as you can, play on Maryland. AAA Sports |
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11-11-16 | Indiana +5.5 v. Kansas | Top | 103-99 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Indiana. REASONING: Both teams will have a bunch of fans in the stands tonight, note that this one is being played on a neutral court in Hawaii. The Hoosiers were 27-8 last year and made it to the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tourney before falling 101-86 to NC. Kansas was 33-5 and made it to the Elite Eight before falling 64-59 to Villanova. Indiana had a big hole to fill in replacing PG Yogi Ferrell, but the team is hopeful that Pittsburgh transfer Josh Newkirk will answer the call. Also keep your eyes on James Blackmon Jr., who averaged 15.8 PPG last year. Last season Indiana ranked 11th in the country in scoring at 82.6 PPG. The Hoosiers were poor defensively, but did turn things around come tournament time. The Jayhawks have won the Big 12 title 12 years in a row. Kansas also lost some talent from last year, as Perry Ellis and Wayne Selden are gone. Frank Mason will be leaned upon heavily by the Jayhawk this season, he averaged 12.9 PPG. Last year Kansas was 16th in scoring at 81.3 PPG. Defensively they were ranked 71st int he country in allowing 67.6 PPG. Kansas may find a way to win this game outright, but we think the talent on Indiana can match pace with the high-powered Jayhawks until the final moments. Grab the points, play on the HOOSIERS. AAA Sports |
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11-11-16 | Boston College +21.5 v. Florida State | Top | 7-45 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Boston College. REASONING: BC still has a shot at a bowl, but will need to win two of its last three games and while an outright upset is almost assuredly out of the question, we think that the visitors can keep this one competitive enough to come away with a comfortable cover once it’s all said and done. BC will be especially motivated here after getting blown out at home to Louisville last weekend. FSU finally became bowl eligible last weekend with a 24-20 win at NC State and we think it’s going to have a small mental letdown tonight. A 52-7 loss to the Cardinals sounds horrific, until we remember that FSU was annihilated 63-20 to Louisville as well earlier in the year. Clearly FSU is better on paper and on the field, but we think it’s just a classically bad “spot” for the home side today. Note that BC is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while FSU is only 1-6 ATS in its last seven in the same points range and just 12-18 ATS in its last 30 when playing the role of favorite. Grab the points, play on BOSTON COLLEGE. AAA Sports |
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11-10-16 | Utah v. Arizona State +5.5 | Top | 49-26 | Loss | -108 | 58 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Arizona State. REASONING: Utah is 7-2 and is still trying to win its division, but at just 5-4 and with losses in three of its last four games, the Arizona State Sun Devils are desperate for one more victory and to become bowl eligible. Both teams come out of their bye, which we think favors the hungry Sun Devils. But primarily from a scheduling stand-point, this has bascially become a “must win” game for ASU. And that’s because it ends the year with two straight incredibly tough road games at Washington and Arizona. For us this pick is entirely “situational.” Also note that Utah is in fact just 1-4 ATS in its last five following its bye week, while ASU is 4-1 ATS following its bye week. Grab as many points as you can, play on ARIZONA STATE. AAA Sports |
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11-10-16 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 112-106 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the New Orleans Pelicans. REASONING: New Orleans is going to win a game one day. And today may be the day! While we’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, we do think that the desperation levels in which the visitors play with today will take this one down to the wire at the very least. Pelicans’ center Anthony Davis is fourth in the NBA with an average of 30.9 PPG and among the leaders in rebounds, steals, blocks and double-doubles. The Pelicans come to town off a 102-94 setback at Sacramento on Tuesday. Milwaukee on the other hand is primed for a letdown here after its three game win streak was snapped in an ugly 86-75 OT loss to Dallas on Sunday. The Bucks have been playing sloppy this year as they’re allowing 18.1 PPG on 16.1 turnovers. Note that the visitors also play with “revenge” tonight after falling 117-113 at home earlier in the month. And note that New Orleans is 20-17 ATS in its last 37 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Milwaukee is just 7-10 ATS in its last 17 as a home fav in the 3.5 to six points range. Grab as many points as you can, play on NEW ORLEANS. AAA Sports |
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11-09-16 | Bowling Green v. Akron -11.5 | 38-28 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on Akron. REASONING: We’ve been saddled with a poor opening line, but regardless, we think that the 5-5 Akron Zips, who need just one more victory to become bowl eligible, will put the foot on the gas from start to finish as they look to take advantage of this struggling 1-8 Bowling Green Falcons side. The Green Falcons come to town off a 45-20 road loss to Northern Illinois last week, while Akron got crushed 48-17 at home to Toledo last Wednesday. Akron plays with revenge after the Falcons won 59-10 at home last year. Bowling Green was in the MAC title game last year, but lost most of its starting line-up over the offseason and now averages just 21.2 PPG, ranked 119th in the nation. But not to be outdone, Bowling Green’s defense is even worse, it allows a nation worst 45.1 PPG on average. QB James Knapke has been a disaster, going 59 of 109 for 636 yards, three TD’s and nine INT’s. The Zips are struggling to the finish line, but are still 31st in the FBS in passing offense and 46th in the country in scoring offense with an average of 33.1 PPG. Like Green Bay, Akron’s big weakness is on the defensive side of the ball as the unit concedes an average of 35.6 PPG. Clearly though the home side catches a big break today in facing the Falcons’ anemic unit. Note that Akron QB Thomas Woodson has over 2,000 yards passing, 18 TD’s and six INT’s. Also note that Bowling Green is 0-5 ATS in its last five after allowing more than 40 points in its previous game, while Akron is 4-0 ATS in its last four after scoring less than 20 points in its previous outing. We’re laying the points and expecting a rout from start to finish, play on AKRON. AAA Sports |
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11-08-16 | Western Michigan v. Kent State +20 | 37-21 | Win | 100 | 50 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on Kent State. REASONING: Western Michigan is a great team, it’s 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS. Kent State is a poor team, it’s 3-6 SU and 5-4 ATS. Last week WMU rolled to a convincing 52-20 win on the road over Ball State. Kent State somehow pulled of a miraculous victory on the road over Central Michigan last week to keep its slim bowl hopes alive. We won’t try to convince you that the Broncos aren’t as good as their perfect record would indicate, or that Kent State is a good team that’s just caught some unlucky breaks this season, as that’s not the case. We simply feel that this is a bad “spot” for Western Michigan as the pressure mounts with just a few games remaining. The Flashes rank near the bottom of most offensive categories in the FBS, but their defense has been very good, allowing just 350.7 yards per game (23rd) and 204.8 passing yards per game (36th). Clearly that defense hasn’t seen many better than Broncos’ QB Zach Terrell, who had an amazing 23:1 TD/INT ratio this year. But as stated earlier, the pressure is mounting for the undefeated Broncos and with cream puffs this week against Kent State, followed by the lowly Bulls at home next Saturday, before an epic showdown in the season finale in front of the home town crowd against Toledo (which is 7-2 overall and 4-1 in league play), it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught “looking past” this “lesser” competition and “easier” part of their schedule. Last week the Flashes forced four turnovers and we’re expecting the unit to make an impact today as well. Grab as many points as you can, play on KENT STATE. AAA Sports |
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11-07-16 | Pelicans +17 v. Warriors | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the New Orleans Pelicans. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics: As note that New Orleans is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 as a road dog of 12.5 poitns or more and 19-12 ATS in its last 31 following an upset loss as a favorite, while Golden State is just 21-24 ATS in its last 45 as a home fav of 12.5 point or more and already 0-3 ATS against teams with losing records. The bottom line: The Pelicans are 0-6. Clearly they are going to be in a foul mood today and while we’re not going to predict a crazy outright upset, we do definitely feel that the visitors can keep this one competitive. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-06-16 | Saints v. 49ers +3 | 41-23 | Loss | -100 | 146 h 47 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the San Francisco 49ers. REASONING: New Orleans is two games behind the surging Falcons in the NFC South, but looks primed for a letdown after beating Seattle 25-20 at home last week. San Francisco has had a weeek off to prepare for this one after falling 34-17 to the Buccaneers in its last outing. We think the Saints come to town tired, they’ve won three of their last four and none have been of the easy variety, beating the Chargers by one, the Panthers by three and the Seahawks by five. QB Drew Brees continues to be a bright spot for the offense, he has 18 TD’s to just five INT’s thus far. San Francisco is a team looking for an identity. Blaine Gabbert was replaced by Colin Kaepernick and there’s been a bit of a difference. Kaepernick hasn’t looked horrible, in the loss to Tampa he had 143 yards and a score through the air, as well as adding an additional 84 yards on the ground off nine carries. He’s a true dual threat and he’s going to be able to make some plays today against the Saints “gassed’ and already suspect secondary. Note that New Orleans is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records and interestingly, 0-3-1 ATS in its last four contests played in the month of November, while San Francisco is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in its previous game. The 49ers have a capable head coach and we think he’ll have his team ready to play today. This is a classic “trap” for the Saints, grab as many points as you can. Play on SAN FRANCISCO. AAA Sports |
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11-06-16 | Cowboys v. Browns +8 | 35-10 | Loss | -125 | 143 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Browns. REASONING: Dallas is 6-1 ATS/SU, while Cleveland is 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS. On paper and on the field, this is a matchup of major proportions. However, Cleveland won’t just be rolling over today and we think it can catch the Cowboys off guard in whats sets up perfectly as a “trap game” scenario for the visitors. Dallas comes in off an emotional 29-23 OT win over division rival Philadelphia, while Cleveland came up just short once again, this time a 31-28 setback to the Jets. Dallas needed to rally from a ten point deficit to earn the victory over the Eagles. Rookie QB Dak Prescott wasn’t his sharpest, going 19 of 39 for 287 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Dez Bryant returned from injury to make four grabs for 113 yards and a TD. Cleveland would let a 13 point lead slide away in last week’s loss to New York. The Browns turn to Cody Kessler in this one, so far he has 947 yards with four TD’s to just one INT. Terrelle Pryer was a bright spot with 13 catches for 101 yards last week. It was Cleveland’s defense which will need to step up today if the team has any shot at pulling off a straight upset, note though that the Browns have in fact performed well in this spot for bettors over the last few seasons, going 5-2 ATS in their last seven after four or more consecutive SU losses. And note that Dallas has gone just 3-5 ATS in its last eight off a win against a division rival. Grab as many points as you can, play on CLEVELAND. AAA Sports |
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11-05-16 | Canucks +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | 3-6 | Loss | -196 | 27 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK PUCK-LINE CHOKE-OUT on the Vancouver Canucks. REASONING: We base our picks on many different things, but we’re a “situationally based” handicapping service at heart. Vancouver is on a horrible stretch, it’s lost seven straight and has been shutout four times in that span, including a 3-0 setback at Montreal, before a 1-0 loss in Ottawa on Thursday (we had the Sens in that one). The Canucks have issues for sure, but they aren’t as bad as the last week and a half has proven to be. And here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against as the young Toronto Leafs are in a perfect spot for a letdown after a satisfying 2-1 win at Buffalo on Thursday, their first road victory of the year. The good thing for Vancouver, is that the team clearly isn’t panicking: "Right now we're getting in front of the net, we're getting to those rebounds but we can't find a way to score," Canucks left winger Daniel Sedin assessed last night. "But we have to stay positive. Usually when you go through these stretches you're not playing very well but we are playing well and creating enough chances to score some goals and that's the frustrating part. I feel we could have won a few of those games.” Vancouver is desperate and Toronto is complacent. We’re laying the price for the extra goal and a half of insurance, play on the CANUCKS on the PUCK-LINE. AAA Sports |
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11-05-16 | Texas State +31.5 v. Appalachian State | 10-35 | Win | 100 | 92 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Texas State. REASONING: We think that App State has enough of a mental lapse this week to allow Texas State to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the large spread that it’s been afforded in this one. Texas State last played two weeks ago in a listless 27-3 loss to Louisiana Lafayette, while Appalachian State routed Georgia Southern 34-10 on the road last Thursday. Clearly the Bobcats are a horrible team, they rank near the bottom in almost every offensive and defensive statistical categories, but we simply feel this is a bad spot for the Mountaineers, who have a huge matchup against Troy next week. Appalachian State is tied with the Trojans at 4-0 atop the Sun Belt standings, with Arkansas State only a half game behind at 3-0. Note that Texas State is 6-4 ATS in its last ten off a loss against a conference rival and 5-3 ATS after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Appalachian State is just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 at home (including only 1-3 ATS this season) and just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 when playing against a team with a losing record. We think the Mountaineers come get caught looking ahead and TEXAS STATE does just enough to come away with a comfortable cover. AAA Sports |
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11-04-16 | Hawks v. Wizards -2 | Top | 92-95 | Win | 100 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Washington Wizards. REASONING: We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on common sense: Washington is 0-3 SU/ATS. Atlanta is 3-1 SU/ATS. The Wizards lost to the Hawks in Atlanta 114-99 on Opening Night, so play with the very real “revenge” factor tonight as well. As primarily a “situationally based” handicapping service, these are exactly the types of contests that we’re constantly on the look out for. And note that Atlanta is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 as a road dog of three points or less, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive SU losses. Play on the WIZARDS. AAA Sports |
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11-04-16 | Central Michigan -3.5 v. Miami (OH) | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -105 | 120 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Central Michigan. REASONING: CMU is 5-4 and needs one more win to become bowl eligible. It’s the wrong place at the wrong time for the Redhawks in our opinion as we expect the hungry visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Central Michigan comes into this one in a foul mood after losing its second straight, this time a 27-24 home loss to Kent State last week. Miami Ohio is primed for a letdown here after its third straight win though, including a shocking 28-15 road win over EMU last weekend. The Chippewas are 59th in the nation in scoring at 30.3 PPG. They’re 73rd in the nation on the defensive side, allowing 28.4 PPG. The RedHawks are 117th in the country in scoring at just 20.9 PPG, while the defense ranks 51st by allowing 25.7. Note that CMU is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 following a straight up loss, while Miami Ohio is just 1-4 ATS in it last five home games against teams with a winning road record. The situational and motivational factors favor the visitors and so too do the numbers and trends. We’re laying the points, play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. AAA Sports |
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11-03-16 | UCLA +10.5 v. Colorado | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 99 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC-12 SIDE OF THE MONTH on UCLA. REASONING: ULCA has had a tough year and losing starting QB Josh Rosen to injury hasn’t helped. We had a play on UCLA as our GAME OF THE YEAR a couple of weeks back and released the selection before the extent of Rosen’s injury was fully known. While we got saddled with a loss because of the poor opening line, almost everyone else would have cashed against the closing one. Colorado is putting together a special season, so far it’s 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS. But with its bowl berth now all sewn up, we’re expecting a bit of a drop off in intensity tonight. And while Bruins’ backup QB Mike Fafaul has been far from perfect (eight TD’s and eight INT’s over 2-plus games), UCLA will be leaving everything on the field tonight and until the end of the season as it desperately tries to win three more games and become bowl eligible. On paper this is a major mismatch, but situationally it sets up perfect for UCLA. Note that UCLA is 4-2 ATS in its last six following its bye week, while Colorado is 0-2 ATS following its bye. Grab as many points as you can, play on the BRUINS. AAA Sports |
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11-02-16 | Thunder v. Clippers -6 | 85-83 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Clippers REASONING: We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics, as well as common sense: Note that OKC is just 10-17 ATS in its last 27 when playing with two days rest, while LA is 14-9 ATS in its last 23 as a home fav in the 6.5 to nine points range. The bottom line: Russell Westbrook has a date in Golden State tomorrow night and we think the Thunder guard gets caught looking ahead to that one. Look for the red hot CLIPPERS to come in focused on the task at hand and to pull away down the stretch for the convincing victory. AAA Sports |
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11-02-16 | Bulls v. Celtics -4.5 | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Celtics. REASONING: We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics, as well as common sense: Note that Chicago is just 7-14 ATS in its last 21 as a road dog in the 3.5 to 6 points range, while Boston is 57-38 ATS the last two seasons in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. The bottom line: These teams played just last week and the Bulls took the home victory. It’s payback time for the Celtics, who continue to get healthier after the first few games of the season. Prime letdown spot for 3-0 Chicago, look for the home side to ride the wave of momentum and to pull away down the stretch. Play on BOSTON. AAA Sport |
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11-01-16 | Grizzlies v. Wolves -5 | Top | 80-116 | Win | 100 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* SHOCKER OF THE WEEK on the Minnesota Timberwovles. REASONING: This play is based on a couple of simple factors. The Wolves are winless to start the year and had early double-digit leads evaporate in both setbacks. This is the team’s first home game and clearly Minnesota will be looking to put together a full four quarter effort. The Wolves also play with immediate revenge, as they’d fall in Memphis on Opening Night. The Grizzlies bounced back from a loss in New York to beat the Wizards at home in the second game of the back to back, but the team expended a bunch of energy in securing the OT victory. It’s a perfect set of situational circumstances all coming together for this one selection. Also note that Memphis is just 41-48 ATS in its last 89 on the road, while Minnesota is 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records. Lay the points, play on MINNESOTA. AAA Sports |
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11-01-16 | Western Michigan v. Ball State +16 | Top | 52-20 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Ball State. REASONING: This line opened at 16 (that’s the line we have) and it climbed to as high as 18.5. It’s come down a point as of writing, but regardless, we think the hungry home side can do just enough to come away with a solid ATS victory tonight. Both teams come out of their bye week. We think this will work negatively for the 8-0 WMU Broncos, who most recently beat EMU 45-31 on October 22nd. However, we believe the extra week off to prepare for the final four games of the year will greatly benefit the 4-4 Cardinals. Ball State doesn’t have many chances left to become bowl eligible and we’re expecting the team to bring its best effort each and every week. A big upset win over WMU would pave the way to a bowl appearance and while we’ll stop short in calling for the outright victory, we do definitely feel that the conditions are right for a competitive game this evening. Defensively these teams are in fact pretty close, with WMU conceding 19.3 and Ball State allowing 25.4. This sets up as a classic “trap” for the visitors today. Play on BALL STATE. AAA Sports |
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10-31-16 | Vikings -4 v. Bears | 10-20 | Loss | -104 | 34 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Minnesota Vikings. Setting the scene: The 5-1 Vikes own the leagues best defense. The 1-6 Bears own the NFL’s worst offense. No need to overthink this one in our opinion. After suffering its first loss of the year last weekend, we’re expecting Minnesota to bounce back and take full advantage of this favorable matchup. The Vikings: Minnesota allows just 14 PPG, which ranks it No. 1 in the league. The offense averages 21.5 PPG. Despite a pedestrian effort last week in which he finished 24 of 41 for 225 yards, a TD and an INT, QB Sam Bradford has been very sharp overall for the Vikes with seven TD’s and one INT in five games. The Bears: QB Jay Cutler returns to the line-up today. In the two games he’s played in this year he’s combined to go 373 yards with one TD and two INT’s. The Bears’ ground game is non-existent and is a big reason that the offense averages just 15.9 PPG. And now the defense is starting to struggle, last week conceding 429 total yards. The bottom line: Note that Minnesota is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 on the road and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 against teams with losing records, while Chicago is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 at home and only 4-7 ATS in its last 11 against teams with winning records. The Vikes took both games against the Bears last year, winning 23-20 and 38-17. All signs point to an even bigger lop-sided final outcome this evening, lay the points with confidence. Play on the VIKINGS. AAA Sports |
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10-30-16 | Wizards +1.5 v. Grizzlies | 103-112 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Wizards. REASONING: We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. Other times we feel a more “common sense” approach is the best way to handicap a contest, and that’s definitely the case here. The Grizzlies come in off a deflating 111-104 loss at New York just last night, while the Wizards have been off for two nights to refocus after falling 114-99 to Atlanta in their opener. It’s a great scheduling and situational scenario to take advantage of and also note that the Wizards are 16-12 ATS in their last 28 when playing with two days of rest, while the Grizzlies are just 28-30 ATS in their last 58 following a non-conference contest. Play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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10-30-16 | Lakers v. Thunder -7.5 | 96-113 | Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Oklahoma City Thunder. REASONING: The Lakers beat the Rockets at home on opening night, but then predictably came out flat in a 96-89 setback to the Jazz two nights later. LA has covered the spread in both games, but we think it’s going to have a hard time matching pace with the surging Thunder. OKC played from behind the entire night, but would end up pulling away in OT to beat the Suns 113-110 last time out. Russell Westbrook scored 51 points, grabbed 13 boards and dished out ten assists. Clearly OKC will be looking to get more people involved:“"Overall, we've gotta get more people involved," Thunder head coach Billy Donovan said. "We've gotta be able to utilize our big guys better and pound the ball inside." OKC has a major size advantage in the paint tonight and we think that this will prove to be the differnce in the end. Note that LA is just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 as a road dog in the 6.5 to 9 points range, while OKC is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 105 points or more. Lay the points, play on the THUNDER. AAA Sports |
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10-30-16 | Jazz +7 v. Clippers | 75-88 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Utah Jazz. REASONING: The Jazz are 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS to open the year. LA is 1-0 SU/ATS after handling the Blazers on opening night. We think that Utah can catch the Clippers a bit complacent here and keep this one competitive down to the wire. LA plays Phoenix tomorrow night and it has to be feeling content after beating Portland, a team which knocked it out of the first round of the playoffs last year. Utah comes in with momentum after handling the upstart Lakers 96-89 on Friday. George Hill led the way in that one with 23 points. Derrick Favors also had a big game with 15 points and 11 boards in 20 minutes off the bench. Note that Utah is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a road dog in the 6.5 to nine 9 points range and interestingly, 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games played on a Sunday, while LA is just 41-50 ATS in its last 91 at home and just 12-14 ATS in its last 26 Sunday contests. Play on UTAH. AAA Sports |
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10-29-16 | Nets v. Bucks -7 | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Milwaukee Bucks. Reasoning: We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. Other times though we feel that a more “common sense” approach is the best way to handicap a contest. And that’s the case here as Brooklyn is coming off a game just last night at home against the Pacers, while the Bucks have had two days off to refocus after a 107-96 setback to the Hornets in their opener. Lay the points, play on MILWAUKEE. AAA Sports |
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10-29-16 | Cincinnati +8.5 v. Temple | 13-34 | Loss | -105 | 142 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ATS SUPER BLOWOUT on Cincinnati. Setting the scene: Temple seems poised for a big letdown here after winning four of its last five. The Owls are coming off a victory over South Florida as an underdog last Friday. Cincinnati on the other hand welcomed back fifth year QB Gunner Kiel and the senior wouldn’t disappoint by throwing for four TD’s. We ultimately feel that the Owls will come in a bit complacent here, leaving the back door open just enough for the Bearcats to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. The Bearcats: Kiel had been benched behind Ross Trail and Hayden Moore, but would go 23 of 40 for 348 yards and the aforementioned four major scores last week. He also had zero INT’s: “It feels amazing,” Kiel said afterwards. “It feels so good just to be out there, just to be with my guys again. Things were clicking. Great team win.” The Owls: Temple had 319 yards on the ground in its 46-30 win over USF last week. Ryquell Armstead led the way with a career-high 210 yards. The bottom line: Note that Cincinnati is 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a win against a conference rival and 8-6 ATS in its last 14 on the road, while Temple is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive SU wins. Kiel is back and the Bearcats are ready poised for another big day, grab as many points as you can. Play on CINCINNATI. AAA Sports |
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10-29-16 | Connecticut v. East Carolina -5 | Top | 3-41 | Win | 100 | 139 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* AAC SIDE OF THE YEAR on East Carolina. Setting the scene: The Huskies are 3-5. The Pirates are 2-5. The Huskies are 1-4 in the East Division of the AAC, while East Carolina is 0-3. Both teams come in off losses, UConn fell 24-16 to Central Florida, while East Carolina lost 31-19 at Cincinnati. The Huskies: UConn had a 13-0 lead with 9:41 in the second quarter last week, but fell apart and could never recover in the second half. QB Bryant Shirreffs had 242 passing yards and 49 rushing yards. UConn has struggled to run the ball this year, averaging only 131.2 YPG. The Huskies have also struggled against the pass, giving up 289.8 YPG. The Pirates: ECU struggled against Cincinnati and fifth-year senior QB Gunner Kiel, who made his season debut as a starter in that one. QB Phillip Nelson had 283 yards with two TD’s and two picks. The run game was strong with 221 yards, while the offense would post 504 overall. ECU ranks ninth in the nation with 513.7 YPG, but it’s allowed 32.4. The bottom line: Note that UConn is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 on the road and just 8-15 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog, while ECU is already 2-1 ATS at home this year and 2-1 ATS in its last three against teams with losing records. We think the desperate Pirates finally play a bit of defense, while the offense continues to shine and helps the team to pull away down the stretch for the easy ATS cover. Play on EAST CAROLINA. AAA Sports |
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10-26-16 | Rockets -6 v. Lakers | 114-120 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER BLOWOUT on the Houston Rockets. REASONING: As we saw last night, anything can happen in the NBA on any given night. We had a play on Golden State and it looked completely out of sorts in its blowout loss at home to the San Antonio Spurs. With all of that said though, we’re not expecting a big upset tonight and think the much deeper and talented Rockets will take advantage of this favorable matchup. LA is in a rebuild this year, as Kobe Bryant is gone and Luke Walton is now head coach. Walton will have his hands full with yount talent D’Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson, Julius Randle, Larry Nance Jr. and No. 2 pick Brandon Ingram. Walton will be leaning heavily on his vets, Luol Deng, Lou Williams, Timofey Mozgov and Jose Calderon. James Harden leads the Rockets, he was the league’s second-leading scorer at 29 PPG last year. Note that Houston finished 5-2 in the preseason. In addition to Harden, keep your eyes on veterans Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon and Trevor Ariza. Lay the points, play on HOUSTON. AAA Sports |
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10-25-16 | Spurs v. Warriors -8.5 | 129-100 | Loss | -113 | 34 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ATS DESTRUCTION on the Golden State Warriors. REASONING: When it comes to “Against The Spread Sports,” ie: basketball and football, we’ve often found that we need a couple of weeks to really get a “feel” for the team’s and as such, we’ll be playing it a bit conservative to open the 2016/17 NBA campaign. We are primarily a “situationally based” handicapping service, but because the team’s haven’t even played a single game yet, we’re using a more common sense approach on Opening Night. All eyes in the basketball World have been on Golden State after Kevin Durant moved over from OKC and we think the team will be looking to make a statement this evening. The Warriors looked great in the preseason, so chemistry isn’t going to be an issue whatsoever. San Antonio has more chemistry issues to worry about than the talented super stars on Golden State, with veterans like Pau Gasol added into the Spurs’ lineup. We’re dipping our toes into the water to open the season and simply feel that GOLDEN STATE will be playing with a massive chip on its shoulder which we believe will result in a lop-sided final outcome once it’s all said and done. AAA Sports |
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10-23-16 | Vikings v. Eagles +2.5 | Top | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 146 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Philadelphia Eagles. REASONING: Both Minnesota and Philadelphia are better than we thought they’d be this year. The Vikings especially have been impressive considering the injuries to starting QB Teddy Bridgewater and to starting RB Adrian Peterson. QB Sam Bradford has been brilliant so far through four games for the Vikes, he’s yet to throw an INT. Minnesota comes into this one a perfect 5-0, but we think that rest is going to lead to rust for the Vikes, who are coming off their bye-week. Some times a bye week is very beneficial, but other times it can slow down the chemistry of a healthy team and that’s the scenario we see playing out today. Carson Wentz and the Eagles will be in a foul mood after last week’s lacklustre 27-20 setback to Washington. Minnesota has the No. 1 defense in the league, but Philadelphia is right behind, ranked third overall. Minnesota has been an ATS covering machine over the last calendar year, but we think the conditions are now finally right for a letdown. Grab as many points as you can, play on the EAGLES. AAA Sports |
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10-23-16 | Bills v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 146 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL SHOCKER on the Miami Dolphins. REASONING: We had a play on Miami in its 30-15 win over the Steelers. At 2-4, the Dolphins chances of even making the playoffs are still extremely slim, but at 1-5, they would have already been looking ahead to next year. Now Miami has something to build off and another upset this week and especially against a division rival would put the Fish back in the conversation at the very least. Buffalo has rattled off four straight victories, but if ever a team was set up for a “trap” or a “letdown,” or being caught “looking ahead,” then this is it! After four straight victories, Buffalo comes to Miami, knowing that it has a huge showdown at New England next week, followed by a game at home against the Seahawks, before then enjoying its bye. We think there are enough situational factors working in favor of Miami today to warrant a play of this size and while we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Play on the DOLPHINS. AAA Sports |
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10-22-16 | Avalanche v. Panthers -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 195 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Florida Panthers. REASONING: We’re obviously expecting a lop-sided rout today and are basing this selection on a few different situational factors. Colorado has to be feeling pretty content after its first four games of the year, sitting at 3-1. Most recently it steamrolled the Lightning 4-0 on Thursday. But with an entire week off after tonight’s contest, before a home game against Winnipeg, we think the Avs are primed for a classic letdown this evening. Conversely, the Panthers come in fired up, after back-to-back victories to start the season, the team has dropped two straight, including a 4-2 setback to the Capitals on Thursday. Starting on Monday, Florida hits the road for a lengthy trip, with stops at Pittsburgh, Toronto, Buffalo and Detroit all on the horizon. Suffice it to say, the situational factors are working completely in favor of Florida today and we’re expecting the home side to make the most of it. Play on the PANTHERS on the PUCK-LINE. AAA Sports |
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10-22-16 | Purdue +24 v. Nebraska | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 95 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue. Setting the scene: While we won’t be so bold as to predict an epic SU victory for the lowly Boilermakers, we do definitely feel that the visitors can keep this one competitive against what we feel will be a slightly disinterested and contented Nebraska side. Purdue: The Boilermakers are 3-3, most recently coming off a 49-35 loss to Iowa last week. The team promptly fired head coach Darrell Hazell afterwards. Purdue trailed 35-7 at half and its second half rally would eventually fall short. The Boilermakers were outgained by only a slim margin though, 520-504. Purdue can sling the ball, it’s tied for 19th in the country in passing at 305.5 YPG. Overall it averages 27.5 PPG, while the defense concedes 34.8. QB David Blough will once again be given the green light to operate today, he has 1,756 yards, 12 TD’s and ten picks. Nebraska: The Cornhuskers are 6-0 after holding on for a 27-22 road win over Indiana last week. Nebraska led by 17-0 after one quarter, but twice had its lead shaved to two points in the second half. The ‘Huskers won the yardage battle 360-333. Nebraska is 36th in the country in scoring offense at 35.3 PPG and are 17th in scoring defense, allowing just 18.3 PPG. QB Tommy Armstrong Jr has ten TD’s and four INT’s. The bottom line: Note that Purdeu is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road overall, 4-0 ATS in the same time span as road dog of 21.5 points or more and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 off a loss against a conference rival, while Nebraska is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 at home and only 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a win against a conference rival. We think the shake up at head coach works in our favor today and the razor-focused Boilermakers catch the ‘Huskers a bit off guard. Grab the points, play on PURDUE. AAA Sports |
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10-21-16 | South Florida -6.5 v. Temple | 30-46 | Loss | -106 | 96 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on South Florida. Setting the scene: The Bulls are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS, while the Owls are 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS. Last weekend USF pulled away for a 42-27 win over UConn, while Temple enters off a 26-25 road victory over UCF. The Bulls destroyed the Owls 44-23 last year and we’re predicting a similar final outcome this evening as well. South Florida: The Bulls didn’t play their best last week, but still came away with the win in the end. QB Quinton Flowers had 213 yards and two TD’s through the air, as well as 157 yards on 16 carries to go along with another three major scores. RB Marion Mack had 107 yards rushing and a 34-yard TD late in the game. In all the offense would post 529 total yards, while allowing just 378 on defense. It was an uncharacteristic four turnovers which allowed the Huskies to make it interesting. Temple: The Owls needed a furious rally to earn the victory last week, with QB PJ Walker connecting with WR Keith Kirkwood for the game-winning TD as time expired. Can anyone say classic “letdown spot?” Walker has been poor overall this year, with ten TD’s and ten INT’s thus far. The bottom line: Note that South Florida is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road favorite and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 off a win against a conference rival, while Temple is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 off a victory against a conference rival. USF’s talent and depth on the offensive end will wear down the Owls’ defense and prove to be the difference. Play on the BULLS. AAA Sports |
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10-20-16 | Bears v. Packers -9 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 82 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a 5* FAN APPRECIATION ROUT on the Green Bay Packers. REASONING: Note, we jumped on the Packers early and have unfortunately been saddled with -9 and that’s since dropped to around 7.5 because of the news of Green Bay RB Eddie Lacy’s injury. We still really like this play though as we’re expecting Green Bay QB Aaron Rogers to finally break out with a big performance against this suspect Chicago secondary. All eyes will be on Rogers tonight with Lacy sidelined. Lacy though has struggled and with him out of the equation, Rogers will have the green light to start distributing the ball. Last week the Packers fell 30-16 at home to the Cowboys and the offense turned it over four times. The defense is banged up, but before allowing 157 rushing yards to Ezekiel Elliot last week, the rush defense had been ranked No. 1 in the league. Clearly that unit catches a break this week in facing the anemic Bears’ run game. And that of course is going to take make Chicago’s already one-dimensional offense, even more so. Note that the Packers have allowed 22.6 PPG thus far, ranked 16th in the league. Chicago blew a 13-0 lead and fell 17-16 to the Jags last week. The Bears are 1-5 and are already looking ahead to next season. The short week always favors the home side and we think that will definitely be the case here against a Chicago team that’s searching for identity on both sides of the ball. The Bears are led by QB Brian Hoyer, who has actually been decent, throwing for 300 yards or more in all of his starts. But despite that, Chicago is still last in the league in scoring with just 16.8 PPG. The defense is ranked 19th, conceding 23.8 PPG. The bottom line: Note that Chicago is just 7-15 ATS in its last 22 against the NFC North, while Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS setback. As stated above, Green Bay’s injured defense catches a break this week and with Rogers looking to atone for some early sub-par play, we’re expecting a wire-to-wire beatdown. Play on the PACKERS. AAA Sports |
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10-18-16 | Cubs v. Dodgers +1.5 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a 7* SUPER WINNER on the DODGERS on the RUN-LINE. Setting the scene: This series is all knotted up at one after they split in Chicago. The Cubs took Game 1, 8-4, before the Dodgers responded with a 1-0 victory in Game 2. We think that Game 3 will be another highly competitive affair and while we obvoiusly wouldn’t be shocked if the Dodgers won this one outright, we’re going to lay the price in the end to grab the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Cubs: Chicago struggled at the plate in Game 2, meaning Jake Arrieta will need to be extra sharp today. He took a no decision in Game 3 of the NLDS against San Francisco on Monday, allowing two runs off six hits over six innings (Chicago went on to lose that one 6-5 in 13 innings). In 25 lifetime innings against the Dodgers he’s 1-2 with a 3.24 ERA. He’s 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA over 14 innings at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers: The momentum has swung back in favor of LA and we’re looking for the team to keep it rolling. Adrian Gonzalez’s solo homer in the second proved to be the only run of the game. Rich Hill gets the call for the home side, he finished the regular season at 12-5 with a 2.12 ERA. Hill has struggled in his limited postseason action, but in his last appearance he gave up one run off three hits with six K’s over 2.2 innings in Game 5 of the NLDS. Hill though has had plenty of success at Dodger Stadium, going 2-1 with a 0.39 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over 23 innings. The bottom line: The scrappy Dodgers keep finding ways to win and all signs point to another very competitive affair. Play on LA on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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10-16-16 | Steelers v. Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 15-30 | Win | 100 | 146 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Miami Dolphins. Setting the scene: At 1-4, the Dolphins have little hope at making the playoffs. At 1-5 though, it would truly then be time to start looking ahead to next season. It’s do-or-die every week for Miami and while we’re going to stop short in calling for an outright upset, we do think that the intensity the home side brings today will prove to be the difference. The Steelers: Pittsburgh beat the Jets on Sunday to move to 4-1. The Steelers have looked unstoppable for the most part, except for their inexplicable 34-3 setback to the Eagles. The Dolphins: Miami lost 30-17 to the Titans last week. Ryan Tannehill and RB Jay Ajayi have got to get things figured out quickly, or heads are going to roll in South Beach. The bottom line: Note that Pittsburgh is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road fav of 3 1/2 to seven points, while Miami is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU losses. This is a great situational play, as we believe the visitors are going to get caught in a classic “spot” scenario here, with a game against New England next week, followed by their bye-week, all signs point to the Steelers “looking ahead” to that much more important part of their schedule. Combined with the “do-or-die” mentality that the Fish have to bring tonight, all signs point to the points as the savvy move in this contest. Play on the DOLPHINS. AAA Sports |
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10-16-16 | 49ers +7.5 v. Bills | 16-45 | Loss | -105 | 146 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER STUNNER on the San Francisco 49ers. Setting the scene: Two teams moving in opposite directions collide on Sunday afternoon. The 49ers are 1-4 and have made the switch to Colin Kaepernick under center, replacing the ineffective Blaine Gabbert. Buffalo is riding high after three straight wins, but we think it’s primed for a letdown in this spot and while we’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, we do think this one will be quite competitive. Reasoning: Sometimes change is a good thing. Things can’t get any worse for the 49ers on the offensive end. We think the versatility of Kaepernick is a perfect fit for Chip Kelly’s offense. 49ers’ RB Carlos Hyde will also benefit with Kaepernick under center, as defenses will have to key on both running threats now. The defense and special teams have been adequate. Buffalo has looked good defensively this year and now the offense is starting to catch up. But this sets up as a classic “letdown/look-ahead” spot, as after the lowly 49ers, the team travels to division rival Miami next weekend, followed by a game at home against division rival New England, followed by its bye week. All of the pieces are in place for an upset, but in the end we’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on SAN FRANCISCO. AAA Sports |
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10-15-16 | UCLA +3.5 v. Washington State | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -100 | 154 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA. Setting the scene: We’ve been holding off writing this analysis as we’ve been waiting on the status of UCLA QB Josh Rosen. We watched the Bruins fall 23-20 to Arizona State this past weekend. Rosen was injured twice in that game, but it did not look very serious. Afterwards, all initial reports indicated that the versatile pivot would be fine, but then the next day his status was downgraded to questionable. Backup Mike Fafaul took all of the snaps in practice this week and a line which opened at +3.5, has since moved to +7.5. The books at least are clearly expecting Fafaul to get the start today. While we’re not thrilled with the big QB change (clearly an unfortunate set of circumstances), this selection was based primarily on the “situation” and some extremely strong and relevant ATS trends to begin with anyways. Whether Rosen gets the start or not, we’re expecting the hungry Bruins to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Reasoning: The PAC 12 is not the conference it once was, as there has been a lot of inconsistent play. UCLA is 3-3 SU and just 1-5 ATS this year, while Washington State is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. First off this is a “revenge” game for ULCA, which fell 21-17 in Pasedna last year. The Bruins have had a tough scheulde, which started with an OT loss to Texas A&M. UCLA then beat UNLV and BYU on the road, but then suffered a nine-point setback to Stanford, before beating Arizona by 21 and then falling to ASU this past weekend. Washington State has also had an up and down start, but we think is primed for a big letdown tonight. The Cougars began their season with a loss at home to FCS squad Eastern Washington. Then they lost in Boise to start the year 0-2. Washington State though has responded with three straight victories, including blowout wins over conference foes Oregon and Stanford. Last Saturday the team travelled to Stanford and hammered the 15th ranked Cardinal 42-16. After the string of recent success and off their huge win last weekend, we think these College kids are primed for a letdown this weekend. It’s also not hard to imagine the home side “looking ahead” to its next two games, both on the road, starting at PAC 12 South leading Arizona State. The bottom line: Note that UCLA is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while Washington State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. Whether Rosen plays or not, we think the “hungrier” and more focused BRUINS have a legitimate shot at scoring the outright upset today. That said, grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
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10-15-16 | Arizona State +8 v. Colorado | 16-40 | Loss | -110 | 147 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Arizona State. Setting the scene: Arizona State is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS, while Colorado is 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS. While we won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we do definitely feel that this one favors the visitors with the points. The Sun Devils enter off a 23-20 win over UCLA, while the Buffs fell 21-17 to USC. ASU: Backup QB Brady White was 19 of 36 for 179 yards with one TD and one INT. NCAA leading field goal maker Zane Gonzalez made three FG’s. Leading rusher Demario Richards had 62 yards and a TD. The offense continues to produce, posting 39.7 PPG, ranked 24th in the nation. The defense though is sub-par, allowing 33 PPG, which ranks 98th overall. The defense though came up big in last week’s win over UCLA, sacking Josh Rosen five times (the Bruins managed -1 rushing yard). Colorado: QB Steven Montez had just 197 yards with one TD and one INT last week. RB Philip Lindsay had just 57 yards rushing. Montez will likely start, but the injured Sefo Liufau could also make an appearance. The QB situation is a little bit up in the air for the home side, but the unit has averaged 38.8 PPG so far, ranked 28th in the nation. The defense gave up 358 yards in the air to the Trojans last week. Overall the unit concedes 20.7 PPG, good for 30th in the country. The bottom line: Note that Arizona State is 11-8 ATS in its last 19 against teams with winning records (including 2-0 this year), as well as 12-8 ATS in its last 20 after playing a conference game, while Colorado is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 off a loss against a conference rival. Play on ASU. AAA Sports |
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10-15-16 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas +7 | 30-34 | Win | 100 | 146 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Arkansas. Setting the scene: The No. 14, 3-2 Ole Miss Rebels get ready to take the No. 16, 4-2 Arkansas Razorbacks on Saturday night and while we’re not going to predict an outright upset, we do feel that the home side can take this one down to the wire. Mississippi: The Rebels come out of their bye after crushing Memphis 48-28 at home two weeks ago. Will rest to lead to rust? The Rebels posted a whopping 624 yards of offense in their win, but also allowed 474. So far the offense averages 41.6 PPG, QB Chad Kelly is 115 of 174 passing with 13 TD’s and four INT’s. Arkansas: The Razorbacks fell for the second time in three games in 49-30 loss to No. 1 Alabama last week. Arkansas will be especially motivated today as its still seeking its first league win. It fought hard against the best team in the country last week though, losing the total yardage battle just 514-473. And that was despite winning the first down battle 25-16. The unit can score with the best of them, averaging 35 PPG. The defense is in the middle of the pack though, allowing 27.5 PPG. The bottom line: Note that Ole Miss is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as a road favorite, while Arkansas is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog and 8-2 ATS in its last ten off a loss against a conference rival. Grab as many points as you can, play on the RAZORBACKS. AAA Sports |
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10-14-16 | Mississippi State +8 v. BYU | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 126 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Mississippi State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Mississippi State is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, 7-5 ATS in its last 12 road games and 13-8 ATS in its last 21 when playing with six or less days rest, while BYU is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU victories and only 2-3 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. The bottom line: While we won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, all of the numbers point to this one coming down to the wire, so grab as many points as you can. Play on MISSISSIPPI STATE. AAA Sports |
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10-14-16 | San Diego State v. Fresno State +17.5 | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 125 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Fresno State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong situational factors and ATS trends: We think the high-powered 4-1 Aztecs come in a bit complacent here as they hit a “vanilla” part of their schedule, with cream puffs against Fresno State (1-5), San Jose State (also 1-5) and Utah State (2-4) over the next three weeks. And note that Fresno State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records. The bottom line: We do indeed feel that San Diego State gets caught a little flat footed and the Bulldogs do just enough to cover with what we feel to be a generous spread afforded to them tonight. Play on FRESNO STATE. AAA Sports |
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10-14-16 | Duke +29.5 v. Louisville | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 123 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Duke. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Duke is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games played on turf, 8-5 ATS in its last 13 on the road and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 when playing the role of underdog, while Louisville is just 2-3 ATS in its last five following its bye week and interestingly, only 3-6 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of October. The bottom line: We’re unforunately saddled with a poor line in this one (29.5), but regardless, we think Duke’s offense can match pace against a Louisville team which struggled with consistency in its loss to Clemson. Play on the BLUE DEVILS. AAA Sports |
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10-13-16 | Broncos v. Chargers +3 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 81 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the San Diego Chargers. Setting the scene: It’s a classic strength against strength matchup tonight, as San Diego possesses one of the best offenses in the league, while the Broncos own one of the best defenses. They say “defense wins championships,” but there’s nothing on the line of that magnitude tonight. We think the hungry home side does just enough to pull off the slight upset this evening. The Broncos: Denver comes to town on a short week and off its first loss of the year. It’s a prime situational “letdown” spot if we’ve ever seen one. In last week’s 23-16 loss to the Falcons, it was backup Paxton Lynch under center as Trevor Siemian was given the night off to recoup his non-throwing shoulder. It was a bigger loss than what the final score indicated, as Paxton would gain some production late when the game was already decided. Note that Paxton was sacked six times on Sunday. Siemian will be back directing the show tonight, so far he has six TD’s and three INT’s this season. The Chargers: San Diego could easily be 4-1 right now. Note that it entered Week 5 sitting at 1-3, having led every single game in the final two minutes. Clearly the team has defensive issues, but the unit catches a break in facing this vanilla Broncos offense, which has struggled with its ground game, turning the already one-dimensional offense even more so. But as mentioned above, the Bolts are in fact the AFC’s highest-scoring team with an average of 30.4 PPG. The bottom line: The short week always favors the home side. Not only does Denver have to worry about the four day turnaround, but head coach Gary Kubiak has been dealing with health issues all week after he was taken to hospital by an ambulance on Sunday night. This one has all of the situational factors in place for an outright upset, but in the end we’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can, play on SAN DIEGO. AAA Sports |
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10-12-16 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +10.5 | 24-0 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a 5* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Louisiana Lafayette. Setting the scene: Appalachian State is 3-2 to start the year, while Louisiana Lafayette is just 2-3. Both teams are coming off their bye-weeks. The Ragin’ Cajuns are the “hungrier” team in our opinion though after back-to-back OT defeats and while we won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we’re definitely expecting a more competitive affair than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. The Mountaineers: Both of App State’s losses were against Power 5 opponents (Tennessee and Miami). It’s 1-0 in Sun Belt play after beating Georgia State 17-3. QB Taylor Lamb has been serviceable to this point, but the passing game has taken a step back this season. Note that the Mountaineers are 10th in the Sun Belt in third-down conversions. The Ragin’ Cajuns: Mark Hudspeth’s team was 4-8 in 2015. There isn’t much room for error moving forward if the school hopes to go bowling this year. But not only does Lafayette look to atone for back-to-back OT losses, but its also out to avenage back-to-back setbacks to Appalachian State the last two seasons, including a 28-7 loss last year. The bottom line: Lamb is working with a group of revamped receivers this season, so the QB position is a “wash” in our opinion. Note that Cajuns’ QB Anthony Jennings has completed 60.7 percent of his passes so far this year. Both team’s offenses revolve around the run game though, as Appalachian State ranks third in conference with an average of 213 YPG, while UL Lafayette is at No. 4 at 179.8. The visitors have the better defense, but we think the desperation level in which the home side plays with tonight will play a big role in this competitive affair. Note that the Mountaineers are just 5-6 ATS in their last 11 off a win against a conference rival and just 2-3 ATS in its last five following their bye-week, while the Cajuns are 5-1 ATS in their last six against teams with winning records and 9-6 ATS in their last 15 after playing a conference game. Play on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE. AAA Sports |
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10-10-16 | Bucs v. Panthers -4 | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 5* MNF SIDE WINNER on the Carolina Panthers. Setting the scene: Both teams will be hungry for a win today, as each is 1-3 SU/ATS. But with or without QB Cam Newton under center, we think this one favors the home side, as Tampa comes to town injured as well. The Buccaneers: Tampa lost to the Broncos at home last week and now has to deal with several injuries on both sides of the ball. Jameis Winston will be looking to air it out agasint a Carolina secondary which was torched for 300 yards by Julio Jones. The Bucs though have a horrible minus-9 turnover ratio this year. Tampa’s run game is a joke also, averaging a paltry 82.5 YPG, which turns the offense completely one dimensional. Winston doesn’t have many options either, as WR Cecil Shorts III has been ruled out with a hamstring injury, while both RB’s Doug Martin and Charles Sims are both listed as doubtful. And on the defensive side, Pro Bowl DT Gerald McCoy and DE Robert Ayers are also both listed as doubtful. The Panthers: Backup QB Derek Anderson has made two starts for the Panthers since joining the club back in 2011. Both starts came in 2014 and both were against Tampa Bay. He’d finish 2-0 in those games. Last week he came in to finish 17 of 23 for 172 yards and two TD’s: “We're going to do what we do, play who we play," Carolina coach Ron Rivera said after Saturday's practice. "We've done this before. It's that next man up mentality. We've done it before." The bottom line: Note that Tampa Bay is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Carolina is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 at home. Newton has struggled this year, so we think Anderson could in fact re-invigorate this stagnant Panthers’ offense. The Bucs come to town with more questions than answers. We’re laying the points, play on CAROLINA. AAA Sports |
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10-09-16 | Bengals +1 v. Cowboys | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -115 | 162 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* SHOCKER OF THE YEAR on the Cincinnati Bengals. Setting the scene: No one thought Dallas would be 3-1 after the first four games when starting QB Tony Romo was injured in the preseason. So far Cincinnati has struggled with consistency, but we think the 2-2 Bengals will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Cincinnati: They come to town off a confidence building 22-7 home win over the Dolphins. LB Vontaze Burfict returned from suspension and made an immediate impact. Expect the unit to get a ton of pressure on Cowboys’ rookie QB Dak Prescott. Note that over their last two games the Bengals have giving up a total of just 114 rushing yards. Dallas: Prescott was 23 of 32 for 245 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s in the win over the toothless 49ers last week. The Cowboys though are still without the services of Romo, No. 1 WR Dez Bryant, starting LT Tyron Smith and their top CB Orlando Scandrick. The bottom line: Note that the Bengals are 9-1 ATS in their last ten on the road and 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 following a SU victory, while the Cowboys are just 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 in front of the home town crowd. We think the injuries finally catch up to the Cowboys this weekend and that Cincinnati’s defense continues to shine. Play on the BENGALS. AAA Sports |
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10-09-16 | Eagles v. Lions +2.5 | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 159 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Detroit Lions. Setting the scene: The 3-0 Philadelphia Eagles come to town out of their bye-week and the desperate 1-3 Detroit Lions will look to take advantage. So far Eagles’ rookie QB Carson Wentz has made it look pretty easy, but we think he’ll finally stumble this afternoon. The Eagles: With two full weeks off between games, we think Wentz’ chemistry will take a hit this afternoon. So far he has 769 yards, five TD’s and no INT’s. Philadelphia is coming off a 34-3 rout of Pittsburgh and is poised for a letdown on the road. Wentz has had to shoulder the load on offense, as the run game has been poor, RB Ryan Matthew’s 104 yards and three TD’s lead the team. The Lions: They’re now tied for last place with the Bears in the NFC North. Detroit struggled in Chicago last week, but we think will bounce back in familiar surroundings. The bottom line: Note that Philadelphia is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Detroit is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three against the NFC East. We think that rest does in fact lead to rust and that desperation breeds motivation. Grab as many points as you can, play on DETROIT. AAA Sports |
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10-08-16 | Northern Illinois +19 v. Western Michigan | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 145 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC SIDE OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois. Setting the scene: We think the 5-0 Broncos come in a bit complacent today, leaving the back door open just enough for the hungry 1-4 Huskies to sneak in through down the stretch. Northern Illinois: The Huskies come into this one with a bit of confidence after picking up their first win of the year, 31-24 against Ball State last weekend. The offense really started to click and we’re expecting that momentum to be carried over tonight, note that the unit posted a whopping 653 total yards. Keep your eyes on WR Kenny Golladay, who had 13 catches for 184 yards and two TD’s. Western Michigan: The Broncos rolled over Central Michigan last week 49-10. The defense posted eight sacks and two turnovers, icnluding an INT pick-six. So far the offense averages 459.6 YPG, including 247 on the ground. The bottom line: With a date against 0-5 Akron next weekend, WMU has hit a soft part of its schedule and we think the home side comes in disinterested and takes its foot off the gas. Grab as many points as you can, play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AAA Sports |
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10-08-16 | Indiana +32 v. Ohio State | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 143 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on Indiana. Setting the scene: Ohio State is a special team and one which barring epic disaster, will most assuredly be competing for the national title once it’s all said and done. The Hoosiers are a pretty good team too though and we think they’ll be able to keep this one competitive enough to sneak in through the back door as the game comes down the stretch with the sizeable spread they’ve been afforded. Indiana: It’s 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. The Hoosiers beat Michigan State 24-21 at home last week. QB Richard Lagow was 16 of 26 for 276 yards, two TD’s and an INT. RB Devine Redding has posted over 100 yards in three of four games played. So far the Hoosiers average 29 PPG, ranked 67th in the country. The defense though is likely even better, as it’s conceding just 21.8 PPG. Ohio State: It’s 4-0 SU/ATS. The Buckeyes beat Rutgers 58-0 last week. QB JT Barrett was 21 of 29 for 238 yards and four TD’s and one INT. RB Mike Weber had 144 yards rushing. The offense averages 57 PPG, ranked third overall, while the defense has been conceding an average of just 9.2 PPG, ranked No. 1 in the nation. The bottom line: The Hoosiers play with revenge today after falling 34-27 to the Buckeyes at home last year. Clearly the Buckeyes are the better team, but 28 to 32 points better?! We don’t think so, as Indiana is no slouch, with offense and defense which both rank in the top 75. With back-to-back road games upcoming at Wisconsin and Penn State, we think the home side gets caught looking ahead here as well. Grab as many points as you can, play on INDIANA. AAA Sports |
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10-06-16 | Red Sox v. Indians +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 34 h 51 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER BLOWOUT on the Cleveland Indians on the RUN-LINE. Setting the scene: These teams opened the 2016 campaign with a series against each other and will now begin the postseason in this ALDS. We think that ex Red Sox manager and current Indians manager Terry Francona will get the better of his former team tonight. Boston: The Red Sox send Rick Porcello to the hill, he’d put together the best campaign of his career in 2016 with a 22-4, 3.15 ERA record. Porcello is 10-4 with a 3.35 ERA lifetime against the Tribe. Cleveland: Trevor Bauer gets the start for the home side, he finished 12-8 with a 4.26 ERA. He’s struggled against the Red Sox throughout his career, but note that he’s done very well in this spot for bettors all season by going 8-4 with a respectable 3.74 ERA in all night contests. The bottom line: Despite taking four of the six regular-season games between the teams, the Indians would go on to secure home field advantage in this series, which we think is a huge situational factor working in their favor. For Game 1 anyways. Note that Cleveland was 53-28 in front of the home town crowd this year. While Porcello gets a slight nod on the bump, we’re giving the Indians the slight nod at the plate, based upon their documented production in Cleveland this season. In the end, we’ll lay the pick-em price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the INDIANS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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10-05-16 | Georgia Southern v. Arkansas State +7 | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUN BELT GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas State. Setting the scene: Arkansas State is the defending Sun Belt Champ, but it lost it’s QB in the offseason and has opened the 2016/17 campaign by going 0-4, including a humiliating loss to FCS Central Arkansas last time out. Georgia Southern comes out of a bye-week after getting smashed 59-31 on the road to Western Michigan. This is a great situational play though (which we’ll detail shortly) and while we’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, we do definitely feel that the desperate home side is going to keep it a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Eagles: Clearly they’re the better team today. Despite the lop-sided loss to WMU, Georgia Southern is still only giving up 305.8 YPG and 228 yards through the air. Four turnovers proved costly in the loss to the Broncos. QB Favian Upshaw was just 4 of 6, but did have two TD’s as well as one INT. Arkansas State will no doubt have its hands full trying to stop Georgia Southern’s ground attack, a unit which is so far averaging 317.8 YPG. Red Wolves: Coming off a 9-4 season, there were high expectations for Arkansas State this year. Clearly things haven’t gone the way that coach Blake Anderson envisioned, but despite the loss to Central Arkansas, there were a few silver linings to be taken from the setback, as QB Justice Hansen would go on to finish with 424 yards and three TD’s. Blake Mack also had eigth catches for 142 yards. Turnovers played a big part in the setback as well, as ASU had four, while unable to force any the other way. The bottom line: We think Georgia Southern gets caught “looking ahead” to its big matchup at Georgia Tech next week. While a non-conference game, clearly moving up to play in the Power 5 conference atmosphere is something these guys would have had circled on the calendar before the season started. Grab as many points as you can, play on the RED WOLVES. AAA Sports |
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10-04-16 | Orioles +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 2-5 | Loss | -151 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER PLAY on the Baltimore Orioles on the RUN-LINE. Setting the scene: Chris Tillman had a surprisingly good season, finishing 16-6 with a 3.77 ERA. He was really good on the road as well, going 8-3 with a 2.97 ERA. His counterpart Marcus Stroman was 9-10 with a 4.37 ERA. Stroman looked brilliant at times this year, but also frustratingly average in others. Note that he’d finish with a pedestrian 4.59 ERA at home. Tillman: Tillman has been throwing in the AL East for many seasons and the Blue Jays have dominated him over the course of his career. In fact, in 24 career outings against Toronto, he’s only 5-10 with a 5.44 ERA. He’s also just 2-6 with a 7.01 ERA in 13 starts in Toronto overall. But that was then and this is now. Tillman has held his own against the Blue Jays this year, going 1-0 with a 3.63 ERA in four starts. And in two starts in Toronto, he’d post a 2.38 ERA. Stroman: He went 0-5 in September, despite posting a decent 3.41 ERA in six outings. Stroman though has been hit-or-miss all year and he faced the Orioles just last week and got rocked. In fact, in he’s just 2-3 with a 5.07 ERA in seven career outings against Baltimore, including only 1-2 with a 7.04 ERA in three matchups this season. The bottom line: Does Toronto have an advantage on the mound tonight? The numbers definitely say no. Do the Jays have the advantage at the plate? The numbers would also point to “no,” as they’d post an AL-worst 3.69 runs per game in 29 games in Sept-Oct. We think this one should be more of a pick-em priced line, but in this case, we’re goign to lay the very reasonable mid-sized price with confidence and grab the extra run-and-a-half at the same time. Play on BALTIMORE on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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10-03-16 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -101 | 153 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the New York Giants. Setting the scene: Minnesota is 3-0 because of its tough defensive play. The offensive unit has been horrible though. While far from perfect, the Giants are much more balanced, with both their offense and defense ranking in the top 3rd. We think the skill players and overall depth of the visitors will prove to be too much for the over-achieving Vikings to handle tonight and while we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we’re going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Giants: New York had a mental lapse in last week’s 29-27 loss to the Redskins as Eli Manning was picked off three times. The offense would go on to finish with 28 first downs and 457 total yards (120 rushing). Manning was solid (other than the three INT’s), finishing with 350 yards on 25 of 38. WR Odell Beckham Jr. had 7 catches for 121 yards. So far the Giants average sixth in the NFL with 396.7 yards per game and 99 YPG on the ground. The defense isn’t far behind, allowing just 339.7 YPG, good for tenth in the league. The Vikes: We think that Minnesota suffers a classic letdown tonight, especially after its 22-10 road win in Carolina last week. So far the defense has been great, allowing just 295 yards per game, ranked 6th in the league. The offense though has been terrible. Last week it had just 13 first downs and 211 total yards. Sam Bradford was an unimpressive 17 of 28 for 171 yards and a TD. Minnesota managed just 45 yards on the ground off 16 carries. With the injury to Adrian Peterson, it’s not surprising to learn that the Vikes rank last in the NFL in rushing yards per game (note that they’re also 28th in passing yards per game at 265.3). The bottom line: The Giants play with revenge tonight after getting thumped 49-17 in Minnesota last season. Ultimately we believe that the Vikes’ “luck” runs out this evening as we’re expecting the veteran Manning to at the very least, keep his team in this one down the stretch. Grab as many points as you can, play on NEW YORK (and consider sprinkling a little on the money line as well!). AAA Sports |
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10-01-16 | Louisville v. Clemson +2 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson. Setting the scene: It’s a battle of ACC heavyweights, as 4-0 Louisville takes on 4-0 Clemson on Saturday night. This line opened with the Tigers as 3.5 point favorites, but as of writing, Clemson is now the dog, getting a couple of points. So far Cardinals’ QB Lamar Jackson has been unstoppable this year, but we think he’s going to struggle in this difficult venue and against this top notch defense. Louisville: Jackson would finish with 417 yards and five passing TD’s, to go along with two more rushing scores in his team’s 59-28 win over Marshall last week. Jackson so far has 12 rushing TD’s, which is No. 1 in the country. The Clemson rush defense though is the most stout he’ll have faced yet this season. RB Brandon Radcliff is another dangerous weapon, to go along with WR James Quick, who has 360 receiving yards thus far. Their offense is No. 1, but the defense is ranked in the middle of the pack, allowing 22.5 PPG, ranked 47th in the nation. Clemson: The Tigers dismantled Georgia Tech last weekend, dominating on both sides of the ball in the 26-8 win. QB DeShaun Watson continues to slowly get better as the season has worn on, he was 32 of 48 for 304 yards, two TD’s and an INT. RB Wayne Gallman has yet to find his stride, rushing for 100 yards just once. Note though that offense averages 33.5 PPG, 57th overall in the country. Defensively though Clemson ranks among the best, last week it held the Yellow Jackets up-tempo attack to just 29 yards in the air and only 95 yards on the ground. Over the first four games the unit has given up an average of just 11 PPG. The bottom line: This clearly won’t be a cake walk, while it’s true that Jackson has yet to face a defense as good as Clemson’s, it’s also true that the Tigers have yet to face an offense as dynamic as this one. Note though that Louisville has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors in the past, going just 4-6 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU wins and interestingly just 3-5 ATS in its last eight in weeks 5 through 9. And note that this is a spot in which the Tigers have excelled in, going 4-1 ATS in their last five as an underdog and 10-5 ATS vs. teams with winning records. They say defense wins championships, and while nothing but a perfect record after five weeks is on the line in this one, we still feel that adage applies in this big conference matchup. Play on CLEMSON. AAA Sports |
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09-30-16 | Stanford +3.5 v. Washington | 6-44 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on Stanford. Setting the scene: The stakes are high on Friday night as 3-0 Stanford takes on the 4-0 on Huskies in Pac-12 Conference action. The Cardinal stayed focused and managed to pull away for a 22-13 road win last week at UCLA, while Washington had to hold on for dear life in its 35-28 OT victory over Arizona. Ultimately though we think Stanford’s smothering defensive play, combined with its next-to-impossible-to-stop running attack will prove to be too much for the Huskies this evening. The Cardinal: It was a tough battle, but Stanford delivered in the clutch, getting the go-ahead TD with less than 30 seconds to play. Ryan Burns had just 137 yards with one TD and one INT, but RB Christian McCaffrey finished with 138 yards rushing off 26 carries. So far he has 436 yards with three TD’s this year. The defense was remarkable though, holding UCLA to just 77 yards on the ground, while containing QB Josh Rosen, who had just a single TD strike. So far the defense has conceded an average of just 12 PPG, good for eighth in the nation. The Huskies. Washington let a big lead against the Wildcats slip away, but managed to gut out the OT win. Jake Browning was 14 of 21 for 160 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Lavon Coleman would go for 181 yards off just 11 carries. So far Washington has faced four very vanilla defenses to open the season, part of the reason why it’s averaged a whopping 45.8 PPG thus far. The defense has been very good, conceding 14.5 PPG to this point. The bottom line: Note that Stanford is 6-1 ATS in its last seven against a team with a winning home record and 8-2 ATS in its last 20 after giving up less than 20 points in its last game, while Washington is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing more than 200 rushing yards. As we stated off the top, we think that Stanford’s defense is a special one and one which is going to dictate the flow of this contest. Combined with McCaffrey’s dominance on the ground, all signs point to the points as the savvy move in this contest. Play on the CARDINAL. AAA Sports |
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09-29-16 | Connecticut v. Houston -27.5 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 34 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Houston. Setting the scene: It’s time for some revenge tonight as UConn managed a 20-17 win at home over Houston last year. The Huskies are 2-2 SU, while the Cougars are 4-0. Connecticut lost 31-24 at home to Syracuse last week, while Houston smashed Texas State 64-3. The Huskies: UConn failed to convert on a fourth down on the Orange two-yard line with just seconds left to play, spoiling the come from behind victory. QB Bryant Shirreffs had 264 yards with one TD and one INT. Shirreffs has struggled to open the year, with just two TD’s to go along with two INT’s. The Huskies have one great receiver in Noel Tomas, who had 14 catches for 111 yards last week, but beyond him, they’re pretty thin on the offensive side of the ball. Note that the unit is ranked 109th in the country at 21.2 PPG. The defense has done a better job, allowing 22.5 PPG, ranked 46th. The Cougars: QB Greg Ward Jr. was 20 of 26 against Texas State for 289 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. Ward Jr. didn’t play in Week 2 against FCS Lamar, but over the three games that he has been involved in, he’s thrown for 936 yards with five TD’s and two INT’s. The run game was also dominant with 243 total team yards last week, led by Duke Catalon with 70. So far the offense has averaged 44.8 PPG. The defense could arguably be even better, as it’s given up an average of 10.5 PPG thus far. The bottom line: Note that UConn is just 6-20-1 ATS in its last 27 road games, while Houston is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. We simply can’t see the Huskies matching pace with the Cougars high-powered offense. So far Shirreffs has been terrible and he’s about to go up against the best defense he’s seen all year. We like HOUSTON to put the foot on the gas from start to finish, lay the points. AAA Sports |
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09-25-16 | Bears v. Cowboys -7 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 121 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys. Setting the scene: The 0-2 Bears will be desperate today as they try to avoid falling into the dreaded 0-3 hole, but Dallas can smell the blood in the water. We’re expecting the home side to win all three phases of this contest and to ultimately pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Chicago: A short week isn’t going to help the Bears, who fell at home to Philadelphia 29-14 on Monday night. QB Jay Cutler was just 12 of 17 for 157 yards, no TD’s and an INT last week, and then left in the second half with a thumb injury. Cutler will be a game time decision. Dallas: Back-to-back divisional games are out of the way and the Cowboys could easily been sitting at 2-0 right now, but a one-point loss to the Giants in Week 1 has the team batting .500. Regardless, Dak Prescott has been good under center and the run game, the defense and special teams have all been solid. The bottom line: The Bears have major issues at the most important position. Prescott has yet to throw a TD, but he also hasn’t thrown an INT. But the stage is now set for Prescott as we think Chicago is ripe for the picking (note that the Bears are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven following a loss of more than 14 points). Lay the points, play on DALLAS. AAA Sports |
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09-25-16 | Steelers -3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -100 | 117 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Setting the scene: Pittsburgh being at 2-0 SU/ATS to open the season comes as little surprise, but Philadelphia with the identical record definitely is. The Steelers rolled over Washington 38-16 in Week 1 and then pulled away for a 24-16 victory over Cincinnati last Sunday. The Eagles routed the Browns 29-10 in Week 1 and then cruised to a 29-14 win over the Bears on Monday night. The Steelers: Both sides of the ball have looked great. The defense has held two dangerous opponents to a combined 32 points. Not perfect, but 16 PPG average is obviously very good. Especially when the offense puts up the kind of numbers that it has. Note that the defense held the Bengals to just 34 rushing yards on the first 16 carries, while QB Andy Dalton was just 31 of 54. Dynamic WR AJ Green was held to just two catches for 38 yards. The Eagles: Rookie QB Carson Wentz has been fantastic over the first two games and he’ll look to keep the momentum rolling. Wentz has so far gone 43 of 71 for 468 yards, three TD’s and zero INT’s. Wentz has been carrying the load offensively, as the run game has stalled out of the gates, the unit averaging fewer than four yards per carry. The bottom line: Wentz faces his toughest test to date. How is he going to perform if Big Ben puts some points on the board and he’s forced to play from behind? With the run game struggling, we think Wentz is going to be overwhelmed this afternoon (note that the Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five Sunday games following a Monday night appearance the week before). We think that Wentz and the home side are getting too much respect and will therefore back the red hot STEELERS to keep things rolling in Week 3. AAA Sports |
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09-25-16 | Rams v. Bucs -4.5 | 37-32 | Loss | -108 | 116 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a 10* play on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Setting the scene: LA lost 28-0 to a poor San Francisco team and then managed a 9-6 win over an injured and discombobulated Seahawks side. In our opinion, the book is still out on the Rams, who haven’t even scored a TD yet this year. Tampa is 1-1, opening up with an impressive victory on the road in Atlanta, before getting crushed 40-7 in Arizona last week. The Bucs finally open up at home and we’re expecting Jameis Winston and company to be too much for the Rams and Case Keenum to keep up to. LA: The Rams’ defense put up some impressive defensive numbers against Seattle. But what exactly is going on with the Seahawks offense right now? That’s the big question in the Pacific Northwest. That same defense looked horrible against San Francisco’s vanilla offense. And now they have to face a determined Winston, who has five TD’s and four INT’s this year (all four of his INT’s came against the Cards last week). Keenum had just 239 yards last week. RB Todd Gurley has been horrible, he had 47 yards in Week 1 and just 51 last Sunday. Tampa Bay: We’re not reading too much into Tampa’s setback in Arizona last week. A young team off a huge road win to open the year, facing a home side which had just lost a 1-point game to the Pats the week before. It was a perfect storm of situational factors working against it. We think if you would have asked Tampa if it would have taken a 1-1 record after its two-game road trip to open the season, that it would have jumped on it. No need hit the panic button, it’s time for Winston to start moving the ball today as RB Doug Martin will likely be sitting with a hamstring injury. One other player to keep your eyes on is Mike Evans, who caught six balls for 70 yards and a TD last week. The bottom line: LA’s offense is completely one-dimensional and thus, very predictable. Gurley will once again have to try and establish himself, but that’s easier said than done against a Bucs unit which held David Johnson to just 54 yards off 16 carries last week. With Gurley contained, the onus falls onto Keenum to produce, meaning the home side’s secondary catches a big break today. We think the Rams’ defense is going to have a letdown here after last week’s huge effort and in trying to contain the versatile Winston. We look for the home side to turn this one into a “track meet” and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Play on the BUCCANEERS. AAA Sports |
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09-25-16 | Redskins +4 v. Giants | 29-27 | Win | 100 | 161 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Redskins. Setting the scene: Washington is 0-2 SU/ATS, while New York is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS. It’s an important divisional rivalry and it’s essentially do-or-die for the visitors, who will likely be in to big of a hole to climb out of if they fall to 0-3. We feel that the desperation level in which the Skins play with today will be the difference and while we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we’re going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Redskins: They fell by 22 points to Pittsburgh in Week 1 and then traded punches with a deep Cowboys team last Sunday and came out on the short-end of a 27-23 setback. QB Kirk Cousins has almost 700 yards through the first two games, but all that offensive production has resulted in just a single TD. We think it’s just a matter of time before Cousins starts connecting and believe he could be in line for a monster game today. You’ll also want to track Jordan Reed, who had five catches for 70 yards in Sunday’s loss. With a very winnable game against Cleveland at home next week, Washington’s horrible 0-2 start could be firmly in the rear-view mirror with a big effort today. The Giants: They’d hold on for a “lucky” 1-point win over Dallas in Week 1 and then also secured the narrow 16-13 win over visiting New Orleans last weekend. New York looked pretty good defensively last week, but the offense was unable to take advantage of a Saints secondary which posted historically bad numbers last year. The bottom line: Note that Washington is 3-2 ATS in its last five off a loss against a division rival, while New York is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive wins. Play on the REDSKINS. AAA Sports |
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09-24-16 | Washington v. Arizona +13 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 36 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Arizona. Setting the scene: Washington is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, while Arizona is 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS. The Huskies rolled over Portland State 41-3 last week, while the Wildcats hammered Hawaii 47-28. The home side plays with revenge in a big way tonight though, as Washington would smash it 49-3 last year. The Huskies: QB Jake Browning has 12 TD’s to just one INT through the first three games, but the competition level goes up dramatically to open conference play. Washington has a strong defense, but the secondary is going to be tested early and often by this high-powered Wildcats receiving corps. The Wildcats: QB Brandon Dawkins was 16 of 21 for 235 yards and a TD in the win over Hawaii, while RB JJ Taylor rushed for 168 yards off 18 carries. So far Arizona’s defense has been adequate, but it too will have its hands full this evening. The bottom line: We think the Huskies come in a bit complacent and while we’ll stop short of calling for an outright upset, it’s important to note that Washington is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven after two or more consecutive SU victories. Grab as many points as you can, play on the WILDCATS. AAA Sports |
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09-24-16 | Air Force v. Utah State +4.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Utah State. Setting the scene: Air Forces was off last week and we think that rest is going to lead to rust in its first Mountain West Conference game of the season. The Falcons: They opened with a 37-21 home win over Abilene Christian. On September 10th they beat Georgia State 48-14. The defense looked pretty good, holding Georgia State to 169 total yards, while the offense posted 531, including 464 of the rushing variety. QB Nate Romine had 124 rushing yards, but was just 3 of 9 passing for 67 yards. The Aggies: Utah State is 2-1 to open the year, last week beating up on Arkansas State 34-20. RB Tonny Lindsey Jr. had a 98 yards and two TD’s. QB Kent Myer was 11 of 25 for 136 yards, one TD and one INT. The defense was tough, LB Brock Carmen would post a career-best 12 stops, including 1.5 tackles for a loss to go along with a sack. Note that the defense has posted 26 tackles for a loss through its first three games and its average of 8.7 per contest puts it second in the conference and 19th nationally. The bottom line: Utah State has won 25 of its last 28 at home. It also plays with revenge after falling 35-28 to Air Force last season. We think the Aggies have a defense tailor made to slow down AF’s high-powered option, while also possessing a dangerous one-two punch on the offensive side of the ball. While we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on UTAH STATE. AAA Sports |
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09-24-16 | Stanford v. UCLA +3 | 22-13 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on UCLA. Setting the scene: It’s time for some revenge as far as UCLA is concerned, it’s lost eight straight in this series. So far the Cardinal are 2-0 SU/ATS this year, while the Bruins are 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS. UCLA comes off a tough 17-14 road win over BYU, while Stanford rolled to a 27-10 win at home over USC. Stanford: The Cardinal averaged 37.8 PPG last year. They scored 26 against K-State and 27 against USC. Last season they allowed 22.6 PPG, so far this year they’ve given up an average of just 11.5. But there is a definite weakness on the offensive side of the ball, and that’s at QB as Ryan Burns completed just 9 of 15 for 109 yards, one TD and one INT last week. Look for the Bruins to zero in on RB Christian McCaffrey, who had 165 yards and a TD against the Trojans, while also catching four passes for 73 yards and a score. UCLA: QB Josh Rosen bounced back from a rough opening performance to Texas A&M, to throw for 267 yards in a 42-21 win over UNLV. Last week he faced a tough BYU defense and threw for 307 yards, with two TD’s and one INT. Like Stanford, UCLA’s strength lies on the defensive side of the ball, especially against the run, last week it held BYU to just 23 yards rushing on 25 carries. The bottom line: Revenge. A top notch run defense. Playing at home. Will Stanford be completely focused on the task at hand, or will it already be eyeing a tough matchup in Washington next Saturday? The situational factors are certainly working in favor of the home side today and in the end, we do think they’ll play a big part in the final outcome. Grab as many points as you can with UCLA. AAA Sports |
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09-22-16 | Texans -1.5 v. Patriots | Top | 0-27 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Houston Texans. Setting the scene: Both teams are 2-0 SU/ATS and something has to give. If you asked Bill Belichick if he’d take a 2-2 record after the first four games of the season, we think he’d likely have jumped on it. The Pats won last week, but Jimmy Garoppolo injured his throwing shoulder. New England was already without the services of star TE Rob Gronkowski, who along with Garoppolo, is a game-time decision this evening. While we don’t have a ton of faith in turn-over prone Brock Osweiler, there’s no question in our minds that this is an opportunity that highly favors the Texans, a deep offensive team, backed by a superb defensive unit. New England: If Garoppolo does play, clearly he won’t be 100%. If Gronk does play, he also clearly won’t be in “game shape” right out of the gate. How effective can third string QB Jacoby Brissett be? Whoever gets the start, New England will clearly be looking to establish itself on the ground, LaGarrette Blount had 123 yards off 29 carries last week. The Patriots will also be hoping that their defense can once again answer the call, an above average unit, which has been a strength of the team early. Houston: Osweiler was 19 of 33 with one TD, but he also had two INT’s in last week’s 19-12 win over the Chiefs. WR DeAndre Hopkins is back and already dominating this season, he had seven catches for 113 yards and a TD last week. RB Lamar Miller was a force on the ground as well, rushing for 83 yards last Sunday, after going for 106 in Week 1. The Texans looked deadly defensively, as JJ Watt continues to make his comeback, last week he had 1.5 sacks and five tackles. So far the defense has five forced turnovers through the first two weeks. The bottom line: Belichick is a genius and is better than any coach in all of sports history in being able to get the most out of the least, but we think this is a hole too deep for even “The Hoodie” to get out of tonight. The short week favors the healthier Texans. New England has a game against division rival Buffalo next week, a much more important contest. We think that Belichick is already looking ahead to that one, making this a fantastic situational investment. Play on HOUSTON. AAA Sports |
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09-22-16 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +10.5 | 26-7 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
This is an 8* FAN APPRECIATION BLOWOUT on Georgia Tech. Setting the scene: Both teams come in at 3-0 and will be looking for a win to open ACC play on Thursday night. Clemson is coming off a 59-0 win over lowly FCS South Carolina State last week, while Georgia Tech is coming off an impressive 38-7 victory at home over Vanderbilt. The Yellow Jackets are out for a little revenge tonight though after falling 43-24 to Clemson on the road last year and while we’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, we do definitely expect the home side to keep this one competitive with the large spread it’s been afforded. Clemson: Let’s not read too much into the Tigers win last week. So far QB DeShaun Watson has been unspectacular this year, as he’s completed just 56.9 percent of his passes for 692 yards, with seven TD’s and three picks. The run game has also struggled, top RB Wayne Gallman has just 197 yards at 4.3 yards per carry through three games. Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets have a ground game that’s tough to stop with Paul Johnson’s triple-option, but last week it was QB Justin Thomas that impressed through the air, as he’d open with an 81-yard TD strike to Marcus Marshall on the first play of the game. The defense though could have been even more impressive, holding Vandy to 275 total yards and just 17 first downs. The bottom line: With heavyweight Louisville on deck next week for the Tigers, a team that Clemson beat 20-17 last year, we think the visitors get caught looking ahead, leaving the backdoor open just wide enough for the home side to sneak in through. Play on GEORGIA TECH. AAA Sports |
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